*4 Star Play Under* Kansas has improved immensely on defense. The Jayhawks are also far weaker on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They don't get to the line very often, and they don't shoot it well from beyond the arc. 

The Jayhawks have been excellent on defense of late. Kansas hasn't allowed more than 0.86 points per possession in any of their last four games. 

Texas Tech is always strong defensively with Chris Beard as their head coach. The Red Raiders rank last in the Big 12 in overall tempo. Thy prefer a lower scoring game.

Bill Self recently said he really likes this defense and they can win those low scoring contests. They have done exactly that in their last two games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The season long statistics for these two teams suggest a total in this range, but both teams have picked up the pace drastically in recent games. I believe this total is too low.

Kentucky has an average tempo of 67.7 possessions per game on the year. Kentucky has played six games in a row to a pace of 72 possessions or more though. The Wildcats have played some fast paced foes during that time, but they are also pushing things much more.

Tennessee has had 3 out of their 4 fastest paced games in the last two weeks. The Volunteers haven't been afraid to run of late.

These two teams just played on February 6th and the final was 82-71. There were 76 possessions in that game. There weren't a bunch of fouls. It was just a fast tempo.

I think the tempo will be slower than 76 here, but I do think the oddsmakers are not adjusting enough for the recent trends of these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Monmouth Hawks play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAAC. Rick Pitino's Iona Gaels have made a commitment to playing faster in their last few games. Iona has averaged nearly 72 possessions per game in their last four contests.

Iona has one of the better offenses in the MAAC. The Gaels have several different quality scoring options.

Monmouth ranks third in the MAAC in offensive efficiency so far this year.

Both of these teams excel at getting to the free throw line. Both teams have fouled a bunch all year. I would expect a lot of points coming from the charity stripe in this game. 

These two teams are more than capable of getting quick scores off their defensive pressure.

I expect a very quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams are terrible. It is very late in their season and they might as well play to have some fun and pick up the tempo. Both of these teams have done exactly that in recent weeks. 

Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State rank 3rd and 4th in the OVC in tempo. This is a very low total for a game with the expected tempo that this one has. The first game between these two had a tempo of 74 possessions. That game got to 145 points. I see something similar in this game. 

Tennessee State has particularly picked up the pace in recent games. They have forced the tempo against all types of opponents including Morehead State in recent contests. 

These late season games between two bad teams have been good to the over in recent years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between BYU and Pacific at BYU was a double overtime game. At the end of regulation the score was 64-64. The shooting numbers in that game were actually slightly above season averages for both teams. 

Pacific is allowing less than 0.9 points per possession at home. The Tigers have been elite on defense on their home court against everyone. That includes a game where they made the Gonzaga offense struggle for much of the game. Pacific will work hard to try to slow the pace down here as well.

BYU is much worse offensively this year, and they are much better on defense than they were a year ago. The Cougars aren't pushing the tempo nearly as much this year either.

Look for a hard fought battle here all the way. Both teams are good on the defensive glass and that is important with a lower total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have four players who are still suspended right now. These guys account for 57 percent of the team's scoring and 47 percent of their rebounds. The group of four players are in trouble off the court.

Bradley isn't a very good offense to begin with, and without their top three scorers and another key contributor, this is an offense that is likely to continue to struggle badly. Illinois State plays a zone defense a lot, and Bradley has been really weak against zone defenses even with their best players.

Illinois State has scored 62 points or less in 4 of their last 8 games. The RedBirds offense has been particularly bad on the road this season. 

Both of these teams do a great job defending without fouling. I wouldn't expect to see many trips to the line unless we are unfortunate and catch a referee crew looking for a ref show here.

Bradley is still pretty good on defense and they are likely to slow their pace down when they are so shorthanded.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Utah State Aggies are part of the fight for the top of the Mountain West Conference. This is a huge game for both teams. 

Utah State has been amazing defensively this year. They rate 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they are easily first in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency. 

Boise State defense is much improved from a year ago as well. 

Utah State ranks third in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Boise State ranks 11th in this same statistic. 

Both teams also do a good job defending without fouling. 

Late in the season in these key games between two teams with good records the under has been the play in the past several years. This game means a lot to both teams and I think the pace slows down a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks have improved a lot on the defensive end as the season has moved along. Even Bill Self, who generally is pretty reserved in his talk about his team, said this week he has been extremely pleased with his team's progress on defense. 

Kansas has gone through a lot of scoring droughts this year, but their defense is leading the way now. The Jayhawks have the length advantage against Kansas State. Kansas State could only muster 51 points in the first showing between these two. I don't think they'll score a whole lot more than that here.

Kansas State has been able to slow down Kansas at home in these rivalry games the last few years. The Wildcats tempo has gradually gotten slower of late. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Santa Clara has played six games at home against Division One opponents. They have all stayed at 129 points or lower. That includes their games against high scoring teams like Colorado State and Nicholls State. 

Santa Clara is coming off a COVID pause. They aren't likely to be terribly crisp on the offensive end after missing nearly a month between games. 

Loyola Marymount has been a better under team on the road this year as well. 

The first game between these two went over the total by 8.5 points, but there were 51 free throws in that game and the teams shot the free throws really well in that one. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass, so second chance opportunities should be at a minimum in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans have been terrible on offense this year, and they have been even worse on offense since coming back from their COVID pause a few games ago. 

Michigan State has scored 62 points or less in five of their last seven games. They are settling for too many bad shots, and there aren't many consistent outside shooters on this team.

Purdue won 55-54 at East Lansing a few weeks ago. The Boilermakers slowed the pace down in that game, and I think they'll do the same here. 

Both of these teams have faced a lot of elite offenses. These defenses are a little better than their numbers look. 

Purdue usually takes advantage of teams on the offensive glass, but Michigan State does rebound it well defensively. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled off the upset at East Tennessee State. This is a huge game in the SoCon with both teams still having at least a chance at a league title. 

These are the slowest and second slowest teams in the SoCon in terms of tempo. The first game was played to 61 possessions. Both teams shot much better than normal and it still stayed under this total by a couple points. 

This game means even more as we are later in the season and these two teams know what is at stake. 

Neither of these teams give up many second chance points. Both of them are good at defending without fouling as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have seen their offense struggle in recent weeks. Four of their last five games have finished with 121 points or less. None of them have gone over 138 points. 

The first game between Maryland and Minnesota finished 63-49 Maryland in an upset at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have slowed their pace down quite a bit in Big Ten play, and Maryland is far more comfortable playing at a slower tempo.

The Terrapins have had 8 of their 13 Big Ten games finish at 134 or lower. Minnesota has been a bad road team in recent seasons and their offensive efficiency in Big Ten road games has been poor.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bradley has their top three players, the three leading scorers on their team, suspended for this contest. They were out yesterday as well. Bradley was only able to put up 58 points in yesterday's contest.

Missouri State scored 80 yesterday and the game went over the total. The Bears went a whopping 14/23 from 3 point range yesterday though. That is awfully hard to replicate. Look for Missouri State's shooting numbers to come down toward normal in this game. 

Bradley will want to slow the pace down here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dixie State Trail Blazers really push the pace. They rank 8th in the nation in tempo. Utah Valley and Dixie State played a game last night that finished at a ridiculously fast 85 possessions. The shooting numbers were bad or else that game would have been higher than 159 points. 

Utah Valley connected on only 13/30 from the free throw line last night. While they aren't a good free throw shooting team, I would expect them to be better than that today. They should get to the line a lot since Dixie State fouls a bout as much as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has a big height advantage here. Dixie State is giving up a ton of layups and dunks this year. Utah Valley will get easy looks inside and second chance opportunities if they miss.

Dixie State turns turnovers into quick points in transition and Utah Valley is poor in transition defense.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first time these two met earlier this year the final was 58-49. While I don't think this game will be that low scoring, I do think it will be low scoring yet again. 

Pacific and Loyola Marymount both do a great job at limiting opponents to one shot opportunity. That is important when taking a lower under. 

Both teams rank in the top 90 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are #175 and #176 in offensive efficiency.

Pacific has done a great job forcing their slow paced games on their opponents. Look for that to continue here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are slowing getting a bit healthier again. They have played faster in recent games. Their defense has gotten much worse this year as compared to a year ago. 

Tennessee Tech is an awful 2-19. The Golden Eagles have gradually sped up their pace of play here as the season has progressed. 

Neither of these teams has much to play for now, and these games later in the season between two bad teams have trended to the over in the long run.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a big game in the SoCon. Both Wofford and East Tennessee State were tied for first in the league in the loss column before being upset in their last game. The loser of this game will be out of the race for the SoCon title, while the winner of this one still has a chance if they finish the season strong.

East Tennessee State started out league play blazing hot from the floor, but they take a lot of difficult shots and those haven't been falling as much lately. The Bucs had a hard time scoring the first time around against Wofford and I think they will struggle again here.

Wofford plays at a very slow pace. The Terriers face a tough defensive team here in E Tenn State. 

These two teams both love to play slowly and the first meeting was just 60 possessions. Another slow paced tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and UT Arlington Mavericks meet for a second time in three days. These two teams have played three straight contests against each other that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Both of these teams have been playing these back to backs in the Sun Belt, and both teams have consistently been playing at a slower pace in their second game than they did in the first. They are regularly playing at three or four possessions slower than they did in the first game. Thursday's game was 64 possessions. I think this will be 62 or 63.

The two teams would need to shoot it well to get past the total at that tempo. Neither team gets to the line much.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Michael Nuga is out for Kent State and he was easily the team's best offensive rating player according to Ken Pom. Kent State will score quite a few here, but it does limit their upside some. 

Northern Illinois is a dreadful offensive team. The Huskies are coming off a long COVID pause and that has led to bad offensive performances from many teams in the past month. Northern Illinois plays slowly, and they do at least put in a good effort on the defensive end.

This line is several points above my projection for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears and Norfolk State Spartans have met twice this year and both games went well over this total. With the line move down, I have to back the over here. These two teams both get to the line a lot and both teams foul a lot. This is a game that has foul fest potential and overtime potential.

I had this one projected at 152.5. Look for this one to get over the posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very low total, but it is this low for a reason. These two teams are excellent on the defensive end, and both of the teams like to slow down the tempo and play in the half court.

UC Irvine has actually played a whopping six straight games that have gone under this very low posted total. Four of those games finished at 119 points or lower. 

UC Riverside was only able to score 53 and 59 points in their two games against UC Irvine last year.

The Highlanders foul the least of any team in the conference, and that makes them a nice under team as well.

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass. That is important especially with a total set this low.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* My projected totals number is lower than this total even without taking into consideration the spot. Iona last played a game on December 23. That is the longest COVID pause so far this year.

Rick Pitino was asked what he expected in this game. He said there will likely be a lot of turnovers and missed shots. 

That is likely to prove to be true here. Both teams really struggle to take care of the ball, and neither team is efficient on offense. 

Look for a sloppy game all the way around here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are a little more efficient on offense this year than they were a year ago. They are turning the ball over a bit less. They are also getting higher quality looks very close to the basket this year. On the other side of the floor, the Lumberjacks aren't quite as dominant on defense as they were a year ago.

SF Austin has seen every game inside the Southland get to at least 146 points. I think this one will as well.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't a good offense, but they are likely to be down pretty big and will be able to score more late in this one. SF Austin has kept the pace fast even late in the game when they are ahead by margin this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sam Houston State Bearkats have been pretty fortunate on the offensive end so far this year. This is a team that doesn't get good looks close to the hoop. If the three ball and the long twos are falling, they can pour in the points. If they aren't, this team isn't very efficient on offense. Their offensive numbers are much better than last year right now, and I think they will dip some before the end of the season.

SE Louisiana might be the worst offense in the Southland Conference. This is a team that is almost completely reliant on getting to the free throw line. They aren't very good from the line either at 65.9%. 

SE Louisiana has drastically slowed their tempo this year. The first game between these two was just 122 points combined.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars offense has been struggling of late. They scored only 18 points in the second half in a home loss to Seton Hall. 

Providence has been better defensively at home, and the Friars defense typically rounds into form under Ed Cooley by the end of the season. 

UConn is the best defensive team in the Big East. They have a bunch of shot blockers on the inside, and they should make Providence take a lot of long contested jumpers. Duke is a good shooter for Providence, but they lack shooting depth.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix are averaging a paltry 0.822 points per possession in CAA play. They have shot the ball terribly. This isn't going to be a great offensive team, but they aren't going to finish this bad either. Elon still has some pretty good outside shooters on this roster. The Phoenix were 9-35 from long range in last week's loss to James Madison. That game was played at a very fast pace and still got to 135 points despite the ugly shooting numbers.

James Madison is great at getting to the line, and Elon fouls a bunch. Mark Byington is a good coach for James Madison and in his first year this team is already showing they can take advantage of a team's weaknesses. Elon has no height and James Madison got a bunch of quick second chance opportunities and was able to get good looks from the floor in that first game. 

The tempo should be pretty fast again here, and I expect better shooting numbers. This number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac was red hot from long range on Sunday. They knocked down 11/22 from 3 point range and got ahead 40-24 at halftime of Sunday's contest at Fairfield. Quinnipiac shoots 30.6% from 3 point range on the year, so I wouldn't expect a repeat performance of that. 

Fairfield had to get out of their typical stall ball style thanks to that big deficit at halftime, and that led to a lot of points being scored late in Sunday's game. 

The total has jumped four points here, and that gives me value on the under. Fairfield is a very slow paced team that is inefficient on offense. Quinnipiac rates as the top ranked team in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. 

All of Quinnipiac's back to back games have shown a pattern so far this year. The second game has a much lower tempo than the first game. If that continues here, there will have to be some very good shooting percentages to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags return from a COVID pause to take on Quinnipiac here in a MAAC contest.

Quinnipiac ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. I don't think their defense is amazing, but it is very good and much improved from a year ago. Fairfield has one of the worst offenses in the country, and off a COVID pause I don't think they'll score many points here.

Quinnipiac lost their star power on offense from a year ago, and the Bobcats have been extremely inefficient on offense this year.

Six of Quinnipiac's 10 games have finished below this very low total. Fairfield has seen 8 of 15 games stay below this total as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coppin State Eagles have played eight MEAC league contests so far this year. The lowest scoring game out of those eight has finished at 152 points. 

Coppin State plays at the single fastest pace of any team in the country. They aren't efficient on offense overall, but they are very good at getting to the line. Norfolk State commits a bunch of fouls, and Coppin State should be at the line a lot again here. Coppin State scored 81 points in each of the first two meetings between these teams this year. 

Norfolk State has the best offense in the MEAC. The Spartans have a bunch of good shooters on the floor at all times, and I think they'll shoot the ball better than they did in the road games they played against Coppin State.

The pace will be there. I think the trips to the charity stripe help this one get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Hampton returns from a COVID pause for a game at home here against High Point. 

Hampton isn't even close to the same team they were a year ago. A year ago they had two star scorers in Marrow and Stanley. Now, they are a subpar offense. The Pirates also had a bottom five defense in the nation last year. They aren't good on defense this year, but they are much better than a year ago. They have a couple great shot blockers. 

High Point has been much improved on defense this year, and they are also slowing the tempo down more than they did a year ago. 

Hampton allowed 1.15 points per possession in league play last year. They are giving up 1.02 points per possession this year. High Point allowed 1.095 points per possession last year, but they are allowing only 1.033 points per possession this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams combined for 120 points last night in a game with 77 possessions. It was the worst shooting night for South Dakota State in more than two years. The Jackrabbits offense has been the best in the Summit League in the long run, and I would expect them to bounce back here.

If we just take season averages and apply it to yesterday's contest the expected final score would have topped 160 points. Before yesterday, the last three times they had played every game had gotten to 165 points or more.

South Dakota is solid offensively as well, and for a game involving two good Summit League offenses this is a low total.

These teams are capable of filling it up. I expect regression to the mean in a positive way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last night's game between these two teams went over the total, and I think this one does as well.

The Summit League is well known for terrible defense and a bunch of games that go over the total. These may be the two worst defenses in the league. 

Both teams foul a bunch and a late foul fest is likely if the game is close at all. Both teams have really picked up their tempo of late too, so we can expect a lot of transition opportunities.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Three times these two teams have played this year. All three games have gone under this total by more than one possession. 

Texas State seems to have a combination that is very tough for Little Rock's offense. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers and Little Rock really struggles to take care of the basketball. Also, Texas State has length inside and does a good job keeping Little Rock from penetrating to the basket.

Texas State rarely gets to the line, and they often settle for too many long two point jumpers. That isn't a high percentage shot especially in current basketball. 

I think this stays under again.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The East Tennessee State Bucs have been shooting lights out in SoCon play thus far. This East Tennessee State team is fully expected to be one of the best defenses in the league, but this offense is outperforming expectations in a big way now. I think they will see their shooting percentages level off over time. The defense should continue to be very good. 

Chattanooga very rarely gets to the line, and the Mocs are excellent on the defensive glass. That is important in a game like this. The Mocs have played a very weak slate of defenses so far this year, and I think they'll struggle to get open looks here. 

Both of these teams have faced far tougher offenses than than they have defenses on the season as a whole. Because of recency bias we have an East Tennessee State total that is several points too high.

East Tennessee State has played their last two games to only 60 possessions. The pace should be slow here too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears have a great inside game with Gaige Prim leading the way. The Bears rank first in the Missouri Valley Conference in overall tempo. 

Illinois State moves quickly on offense as well. Dan Muller's team likes to get up quick looks in transition and transition defense has been an issue for Missouri State.

The MVC is full of teams who want to slow the game down and have a low scoring game. These are two exceptions. That gives us some line value on this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers very rarely play a game that goes over this total. Wisconsin and Illinois played a game last year that got to 141 points with above average shooting. Both teams are better on defense this year than they were a year ago. A couple years ago, both games stayed well under this total. 

Illinois relies on getting inside and getting to the line. This Wisconsin defense is excellent in the paint, and they don't foul very much at all.

Wisconsin's offense has struggled with shooting woes away from home this season.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have improved defensively through the year almost every single season under Kevin Willard. Seton Hall has found a great shot blocker in Ike Obiagu, and he changes the game in a big way on the defensive end.

UConn ranks as the top defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency. UConn has been excellent in the paint on defense this year. It is very hard to get to the basket against this team. Seton Hall isn't a great outside shooting team.

The tempo should be slow here as both teams tend to prefer to play a half court style game. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met on a neutral floor earlier this year. The final was 91-78 (169 points). That one sailed over the total despite South Dakota State missing Douglas Wilson in that game. 

The last three games between these two teams have all gotten to at least 165 points. The initial line move in the market is to the under, and I disagree with that move.

This is a league where over bettors have done really well in the past few seasons. No one plays much defense in the Summit League. South Dakota State is the best offense in the league. They have scored 83 points or more in five straight games.

I think this one clears this total comfortably.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Western Illinois has allowed 83 points or more in five of their last six games. Omaha has allowed 86 points or more in four of their last six games. The Summit League is a really poor defensive conference, and these are probably the two worst defenses in the league. 

Nebraska Omaha ranks second in overall tempo in league play. Western Illinois ranks third. There should be a very quick pace to this game.

Both of these teams have showed time and time again if they are down late they are willing to foul seemingly endlessly to keep the game going. A foul fest late is a real possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very low total, but it is very low for good reason. Charlotte has seen 6 of its 16 games go under this very low total. Two of those games went under this total despite overtime. 

On Friday (the first day of the back to backs in the CUSA schedule), the Charlotte games in the last three weeks have been at 98, 100, and 98 points at the end of regulation. Charlotte is an elite defensive team that struggles a lot on offense. They play at the slowest pace in CUSA.

MTSU is very inefficient on offense. They turn the ball over too much and take too many long two point jumpers that are simply bad shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and Georgia Southern Eagles met twice earlier this year. Those two games were 118 points and 119 points in regulation. There wasn't anything fluky about those games either. Troy's offense is a mess and they turn the ball over far too much. 

Georgia Southern is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. Scott Cross will use some zone defense here as many have successfully against Georgia Southern. Four of Georgia Southern's last six games have been 119 points or lower at the end of regulation. They have been a great under team.

This number has gotten too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have the perfect combination here for a really high scoring game. Long Island is playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the NEC in league play. Derek Kellogg's team ranks eighth in the country in overall tempo this year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson ranks as the best offense in terms of efficiency in the NEC. They also rank as the worst defense in the NEC in terms of efficiency.

Fairleigh Dickinson has had four straight games finish at 160 points or higher. The last meeting between these two last year was 86-81 and that game was played to a blistering pace of 80 possessions.

Look for this one to be up and down throughout.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams played to a pace of 69 possessions, but it only finished at 117 points. The two teams combined to shoot 7/34 from 3 point range. They averaged only 0.88 and 0.81 points per possession in that game.

Morehead State has a good defense. It is probably the best in the OVC. Still, the Eagles are due for some negative regression. They are only giving up 0.862 points per possession in the league. They have faced a lot of the worst offenses in the league while they haven't played Belmont or Austin Peay yet this year. 

Murray State is second in the OVC in offensive efficiency. They have scored 71 points or more in four straight contests. 

Morehead State has scored 74 points or more in four straight games. The Eagles offense has improved a great deal during the year.

This total is set too low based on the score the first time they met.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes defensive statistics look very good on paper. They are a pretty good defense, but they padded their stats against some very weak offenses early this year. Tulsa has been having major problems on the defensive glass of late, and that has led to opponents getting to the line a bunch. Opponents are only shooting 63.1% from the FT line against Tulsa. That has to improve over the rest of the year. We know there is no such thing as "free throw defense." 

The SMU Mustangs rank second in the AAC in offensive efficiency. SMU shoots 73.7% from the line, and they have good balance in scoring from the inside and outside. SMU is pushing the tempo much more than they were a year ago as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* VCU is first in the A 10 in tempo. The Rams are using the full court pressure and being very aggressive on defense. In the first meeting between these two, VCU forced 19 turnovers from Rhode Island. They do a great job turning those turnovers into quick points, and Rhode Island has been bad in transition defense this year. 

Rhode Island excels at getting to the line, and they should once again be at the line a bunch against a VCU team that fouls a lot because of their full court pressure. They shot 30 free throws in the first meeting between these two teams.

The pace in that first meeting was 76 possessions. I think we see a pace into the 70's again here and that makes this total very low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs have been a great under team this year. Butler has seen 8 of their last 9 games go below this posted total in regulation. There are a few things that make Butler a very good under team. First, this team uses 20 seconds per possession on average. They rank as the best defensive rebounding team in the Big East. They also don't get to the line much or commit many fouls. 

Marquette is playing a whole different style without Howard this year. The Golden Eagles are 65th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They were 14th last year. They don't get to the line nearly as much as they did last year. They also foul less than they did a year ago. Marquette has seen four of their last seven games stay under this total in regulation. They are now playing the best under team in the conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are using a whopping 22.0 seconds of the shot clock on average before taking a shot in MVC play. That is the single slowest pace of any team in the country in league play. Evansville will turn this game into a very slow paced battle.

In the past, Valparaiso would be a team that would be expected to try to push the pace. That isn't the case now though. The Crusaders have slowed down more than a second per possession in league play. Their offense has struggled badly this year. They are 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Look for a tight low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs have picked up their pace drastically in recent games. It has worked out well for them. San Diego State struggled through tight low scoring games against Nevada and Utah State. They have clearly made an effort to use their full court pressure and score in transition in their last few games.

Wyoming couldn't handle the pressure well at all on Thursday night. The Cowboys turned the ball over 16 times in that game. They also shot 10/40 from 3 point range. This is a team that shoots the 3 at a 36% clip for the year. 

Wyoming has one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West. They have allowed 81 points or more in five of their last eight games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers were flying up and down the floor at the beginning of the season. As the season has moved along, they have gradually slowed their tempo. They clearly are playing slower against conference opponents. 

Minnesota's offense isn't as efficient this year. Marcus Carr is having to try to do too much. The Golden Gophers go against a solid Purdue defense in this one. I don't think they'll be very efficient.

Sasha Stefanovic is out for this game again due to COVID protocols. He is easily the Boilermakers best shooter and he can really stretch a defense. This is a team that already goes through offensive droughts even with him. 

I like this one to stay below this total in a hard fought Big Ten matchup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We cashed with the under in this game on Thursday night, and I have to go back to the under here. That was one of the ugliest games I've ever seen. New Mexico's offense is just brutal. They have no identity at all. The Lobos stand around and end up with bad shots nearly every possession.

Fresno State has very little inside game, and they are happy to slow the game down and make it a grinder. In the past, New Mexico has been all about playing the fast paced games. They can't do that anymore because they just don't have enough offense.

It was 19-19 at halftime on Thursday. The game was 106 after regulation. This one should be low as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oakland and Fort Wayne stayed under the total by quite a bit last night, and that has discounted this line a bit too much. Both teams shot the ball poorly from inside the arc. They also didn't shoot very many free throws compared to what I would expect.

Fort Wayne should put in a better effort on offense here. A closer game should mean a chance for a foul fest late or possibly even an overtime.

I had this one lined at 158.5

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at an extremely slow pace. They aren't a good defense, but San Jose State is a very inefficient offense as well. San Jose State is without leading scorer Richard Washington due to an injury. 

These two teams just played on Thursday night. Air Force was able to dictate the pace. It was played to only 61 possessions. The game finished 59-58. I assume this will be played faster than that game. Still, if we assume there will be about 65 possessions (what I project this at), both teams could shoot the ball far better than their season averages and this game would still fall short of the posted total.

I don't think a big enough adjustment was made here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Butler has consistently had very low scoring games all season. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in the Big East. They are much worse on offense this year, but they are much better on defense.

Butler's last eight games have all had 132 points or less scored in regulation. That includes games against St. John's, Georgetown, and Creighton. 

Xavier has been on a COVID pause. It wouldn't be a surprise if they don't look as crisp on offense as they did right before their break. This is a team that relies heavily on jump shooting.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana isn't the same team they were in past years. They do still try to push the tempo, but they have one of the better shot blockers in the country in Theo Akwuba down low. Texas State isn't a very tall team, and I don't think they'll have a lot of success in the paint here.

On the other side, Louisiana isn't efficient at all on offense. Texas State is arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. Texas State also slows the pace of the game down in a big way. They have slowed the last two meetings between these two teams down to 65 and 64 possessions. Those games both stayed easily under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders are absolutely flying up and down the court this year. Wright State's tempo makes a total set at this average number seem very doable. 

Wright State has scored 85 points or more in 9 of their last 13 games. The Raiders can score from the inside or outside. 

Robert Morris has had defensive problems with teams with good big men this year, and Wright State certainly has that in Love. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dixie State ranks 16th in the nation in fastest pace of play on the offensive end. Cal Baptist ranks 45th in the nation in that same statistic. This should be an up and down game the whole way. 

Dixie State is shooting 21.9% from 3 point range in conference play. That isn't likely to continue. Even a poor shooting team makes more than this in the long run. Expect positive regression there. 

Both of these teams have been really bad on the defensive glass. I expect a lot of quick second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are a team that wants to slow the pace down. Florida Gulf Coast typically plays to the pace of their opponents. 

Last year, these two teams played two very low scoring contests. I expect another here. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of shots from long range so if they are on fire this total will likely lose. However, these teams aren't very efficient on average on the offensive end.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team is good at getting second chance points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos aren't even close to the same team they were last year. This is a team that is offensively challenged in the biggest way this year. They are no longer running either. They can't try to win high scoring games. They have to slow things down and try to win low scoring battles.

Fresno State is playing very slow this year and they should be happy to try to slow things down and win with their defense.

This number is more than six points off my projection. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Weber State ranked 246th in offensive pace of play last year. They are 36th so far this year. Idaho ranks 346th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The Big Sky is noted as a conference that has been great to over bettors in the past decade. This is a conference where few teams are any good on defense.

Weber State is very likely to get ahead here, which should cause Idaho to need to play faster as well.

Both of these teams foul far more than the average team in the country. Both teams are far above average from the free throw line (73% and 75%). 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* East Carolina had five guys out of their last game against Memphis due to COVID protocols. They are all questionable tonight, but on Sunday the team said it was unlikely all would return tonight. 

Memphis pushes the pace in a way that UCF won't. UCF prefers to play at an even slower tempo than East Carolina does. Memphis ran up the score by getting out in transition and they won 80-53 over an East Carolina team that had very little offensive firepower.

I don't think we'll see a pace even close to as fast in this game. Also, both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. 

UCF is the better team and they have been able to lock down several teams. East Carolina's defense is above average as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions averaged 0.825 points per possession in SWAC play last year. They are at 0.973 points per possession so far this year. With Doss healthy they are some better this year on offense, but I don't think they are this good. On the other side, they are allowing opponents in the SWAC to shoot 43.5% from 3 point range this year. This Pine Bluff team has ranked in the top 65 in the country in 3 point field goal defense in three of the last five years, and their 3 point defense should regress positively the rest of the year.

In the last three meetings between Prairie View and Pine Bluff the final totals have been 92 points, 121 points, and 130 points. 

Prairie View is worse offensively this year without Patterson and Williams from their very strong team last year.

The pace should be relatively slow here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's game between these two finished 65-60. The tempo was slow and both offenses struggled to get good looks.

Western Illinois appears to have decided to slow things down tempo wise. That is likely a good move since their offense is horrible. I would expect them to try to keep the game close again by slowing it down.

South Dakota has the best defense in the Summit League. Their games have consistently been lower. This is a league that scores a lot in general and I believe this total is inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara are far better on defense than they are on offense. The significant line move here on the total makes me like the under.

Santa Clara tries to get to the basket a lot, but Loyola does a good job defending the paint.

Loyola Marymount looks to get inside as well, but Santa Clara has multiple good shot blockers inside.

The pace of the game might be quick, but I don't think the teams will shoot it well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes are severely shorthanded now. Sincere Carry was their star player and leader on the offensive end. They have some guys who have stepped in and played solid defense, but no one is able to replace his scoring and facilitating of the offense.

St. Bonaventure is happy to slow the pace down, and their defense is one of the best in the Atlantic Ten. They held Duquesne to 48 points when they met just a couple games ago, and Duquesne should struggle to score again here.

St. Bonaventure has had poor efficiency numbers on offense on the road in recent seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nicholls State averaged using 17.2 seconds per possession last year in the Southland. They are using only 15.5 seconds per possession this year. That kind of big change in tempo can create value in the totals market especially on under the radar teams. 

Nicholls State has also improved their offensive efficiency some at the same time. 

New Orleans is playing slightly faster than they did a year ago as well. New Orleans' offense is rolling right now. They have scored a minimum of 86 points in each of their last three games. 

Nicholls State has scored 80 points or more in four of their last seven games.

The final game they met last year these two teams scored 160 points. I expect something close to that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse won 81-76 yesterday against Robert Morris. 

Robert Morris plays a unique trapping defense that can bother quite a few teams. Northern Kentucky does turn it over quite a bit and that should lead to quick points for Robert Morris at times. On the other end though, Northern Kentucky got a lot of open looks near the hoop against this unique defense yesterday. Adrian Nelson has really come on of late for N Kentucky and I think he is a tough matchup for Robert Morris.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* I had the over here yesterday and lost. There were 75 possessions in that game and the two teams had the worst offensive efficiencies they have had this season. Both of these teams are better on offense than they are on defense. Now, we have a lower line and my projected number for this game is 148. 

Both teams should play fast again today. I would expect more trips to the line. If we see a tempo like they have played at, even average shooting gets this to 150 or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Utah Valley plays with quite a bit of tempo, and we know that St. John's plays almost as fast as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has really had issues taking care of the basketball this year. They rank in the bottom 50 in the nation in transition points allowed off opponents steals. St. John's should take full advantage of this weakness.

Utah Valley gets to the line at the 7th highest rate of any team in the country. St. John's is prone to fouling a lot because of their full court press.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is elite at controlling the tempo of the game. Ohio State prefers to play slowly, so I think they will be happy to allow Wisconsin to slow this game down as well.

Wisconsin's defense has been tremendous of late. The Badgers last six games have finished regulation with these point totals: 134, 130, 122, 131, 114, and 120 points. 

Ohio State ranks as the fifth most efficient offense in the nation right now. I think they slip in the weeks to come. They are without starting point guard C.J. Walker right now. That could be an issue in a game like this against a great defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both play at a very fast pace. Weber State just beat Southern Utah 91-67 on Thursday night. 

Weber State is unlikely to score 91 points again here, but Southern Utah should score quite a bit more than 67 points. Southern Utah has only scored less than 81 points twice in their eight home games this year. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 16 in the nation in free throw shots attempted. I expect a bunch of fouling and trips to the free throw line here. 

These two teams have each seen a bunch of their games sail far past this posted total. They are more than capable of scoring even more than they did on Thursday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks and Oklahoma Sooners are thought of as offensive powerhouses, but these two defenses have been very good this year.

Oklahoma has slowed their pace down drastically compared to a year ago. The Sooners defense ranks first in the Big 12 in defending without fouling. Kansas is second in defending without fouling. 

These two teams are also second and third in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding. We shouldn't see very many second chance opportunities in this game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* San Diego State is an elite defensive team. They also play at the second slowest pace in the Mountain West. Air Force plays at the slowest pace in the Mountain West.

Matt Mitchell is San Diego State's leading scorer at 15.3 ppg and he is expected to miss this game with an injury. 

Air Force is unlikely to be able to get much going on offense here, and I think San Diego State will be less efficient without their go to guy on offense as well.

This projects as a very slow paced game. My projected number on this game is much lower than this total.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*I would bet this for 5 stars down to 126.5 and for 4 stars at a lower level than that*

*3 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are clearly playing faster this season. Eran Ganot's team excels in the transition and CS Fullerton hasn't been good on transition defense. Also, Hawaii ranks top 20 in the nation in free throws attempted and CS Fullerton is consistently a team that fouls a bunch year after year. Fullerton also gives up a lot of open looks from three and Hawaii has some solid outside shooters.

The Fullerton Titans love to play at an extremely fast tempo. The tempo in this game should be quick enough that it will take some pretty bad shooting numbers to keep this one under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Arlington has sped up in a huge way this year. This is a team that ranked 11th in the Sun Belt in tempo two years ago. They ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in tempo last year. They rank first so far this year in tempo. Arlington is going to try to get out in transition and force some turnovers and get run out chances here.

Little Rock has seen two good defenses in their last four games (B2B games in the Sun Belt this year). They face a much weaker defense here.

Both of these teams make a habit of getting to the free throw line and that could be key here as I expect a close game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors were a consistent under team last year. They didn't have a single game above 137 in regulation in league play last year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson and Merrimack met twice last year and after regulation the final totals were 110 and 114. 

These two teams played on Thursday night and the final total was 113 points. Now, we get a posted total of 141 points? 

Merrimack is playing somewhat quicker this year, so I do expect this game to be a bit higher scoring, but this is a big number. Merrimack is bad offensively. Fairleigh Dickinson is far worse on offense this year, and they have been bad against zone defenses in recent seasons. Merrimack's zone should continue to bother them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NEC. Central Connecticut State hasn't really been able to force Mt. St. Mary's to play at their faster pace in their recent meetings.

The second game in these back to back situations have trended to being slightly lower scoring. Mt. St. Mary's is still going to play very slowly. C Connecticut State is still a very inefficient team. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and both have struggled to get second chance points this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams played twice last year with the final totals being 137 and 138 points. They then played on Thursday and the final total was 134. Since Sacred Heart shot the ball poorly from 3 in Thursday's game I expect a few more points this time, but this number is too high.

St. Francis (PA) also shot the ball far better than normal. This is a team that was 1.11 points per possession in the league last year. They are averaging 0.95 points per possession this year. They just put up 1.17 points per possession on Thursday night. 

Sacred Heart has slowed the tempo down some this year, and St. Francis is far worse on offense and a little better on defense.

I think this total should be in the 138-139 range. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Niagara has been worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. I think they are due for some positive regression. This team has nearly the same guys as they did a year ago when they were amazing from the field. They are still atrocious on defense as they were a year ago.

Quinnipiac has sped up their pace some this year. They have been much better on defense this year, but I think they are going to regress negatively in a big way going forward. I don't buy that this team all at once went from a subpar defense to number 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have yet to face a decent offense. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both rank in the top 20 in the country in free throw shots attempted. Both of these teams also foul more than an average team. I would expect a bunch of trips to the line in this game. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well from the line on the season.

Southern Utah is playing a bit quicker of late. Simon is a coach who has talked about wanting his team to speed up their pace of play.

Weber State is 17th quickest in the country in average possession length on offense. The Wildcats defense has amazing numbers so far this season in the Big Sky, but I don't expect those lofty numbers to continue. They are an average defense at best. 

Both of these teams have played a bunch of offenses who are very weak. These two offenses are an upgrade. I see a lot of pace and plenty of free throws. This should be a close game too and a foul fest late or overtime are possibilities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has been a great under team so far this year. The Eagles are much better on the defensive end this season, and they have drastically slowed their tempo down. 

Morehead State now ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of tempo. It has led to 7 of their 13 games against Division One opponents staying under this low total.

SE Missouri State and Morehead State just met on Saturday and the final was 64-50. 

SE Missouri State relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense to score. Morehead State isn't a team that fouls very much at all. SE Missouri State then is left taking a lot of tough 3's, and this team hasn't been good from deep this season. 

We saw only 63 possessions in the game when these two met on Saturday. Something similar here is what I expect.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois State Redbirds rank second in possession length (second quickest) in the MVC so far this year. Bradley ranks first in that same metric. 

Bradley talked about speeding up in the preseason. They didn't play very fast in the non-conference games, but now that they are playing conference foes we are seeing a clear tick up in pace of play.

Illinois State might have the worst defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. They are allowing almost 1.13 points per possession on the season thus far. Bradley should be able to put up a good number here. 

Bradley's defense excels in the paint, but they are below average at defending the 3 point line. Illinois State puts up a bunch of 3 pointers and they should make their fair share.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Boise State is clearly a very good team. The Broncos have the ability to beat some very good teams with their balance on both sides of the ball. Still, their stats are a bit inflated so far this year because of the really weak schedule they have played. 

Boise State has played the 311th toughest (very weak) slate of defenses according to KenPom. The Broncos averaged 1.091 points per possession in the MWC two years ago. They averaged 1.056 points per possession last year. They are averaging a whopping 1.227 points per possession so far this year.

Fresno State will try to slow the pace of this game down. Fresno State is also weak on offense, and this is the best Boise State defensive team we have seen for a long time. Boise State is going to regress on offense (it might not be this game but it will happen) and this total has gotten high enough that I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have a meeting of two teams who shoot the 3 ball very well in this one. Furman is 48th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is 30th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is miserable at defending beyond the arc. Furman is slightly below average. I expect a lot of good looks from beyond the arc in this one. 

Furman has sped up their pace a lot this season. I think this team should be able to get quite a few chances in transition against a VMI defense that has been weak in transition all season. 

VMI's offensive efficiency at home this year has been excellent. The Keydets tempo is also clearly faster this year than it was a season ago.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll take the under again here just as I did last night. High Point and Longwood have consistently played very slow paced games against each other. The same was true again last night.

The long term trend for these back to back games has been for the second game to be lower scoring than the first on average. That certainly won't happen in every case, but the defenses have stepped things up a bit most of the time in the second contest.

Here, Longwood is highly unlikely to be able to shoot the ball the way they did last night. Longwood shot 72.2% from 2 and 38.7% from 3 last night. This is a very poor offense overall.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers are much better on defense than they were a year ago. High Point always plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the Big South. Tubby Smith's team isn't about to run in these conference games. 

Longwood has played the 305th toughest (very easy) schedule of defenses so far this year. Still, Longwood is averaging just 0.95 points per possession. The Lancers are playing almost two full seconds slower per possession than they did a year ago as well, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace as well.

High Point hasn't played a game in 2021. We've seen many teams come off these long breaks and struggle on the offensive end. 

Last year one of the games between these two went over this total by one point. The other meeting finished at only 111 points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils started the season out playing extremely fast. It wasn't working at all. They also had a couple key injuries hit in the last few games. They have had to play without their best player, Kam'ron Cunningham. Between being very unsuccessful and losing their top scoring option, it appears this team has decided to turn the tempo down.

This is a team that was number one in the nation in tempo earlier this year, and now they have been the single slowest paced team in the SWAC in their three contests in the league. Their last two games have finished with 130 and 115 points total. 

Southern is one of the better defensive teams in the conference and I don't expect Mississippi Valley State to score many points here.

Southern is an average paced team. This total is several points too high based on recent tempo trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have the best defense in the Big East. UConn has several bigs on the inside who are very long and are great shot blockers. You aren't going to get many easy looks near the basket against this UConn team. 

That's important since St. John's relies heavily on shooting from two point range rather than beyond the arc. I think St. John's will find it much harder than normal to score in this one. 

UConn also plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the Big East. The only team that is slower than them is Butler. Butler beat St. John's 69-57 recently. 

UConn is without star James Bouknight and the team's scoring ability definitely takes a hit without him. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are still a very good team this year, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a year ago. They lost very key pieces in Haws, Childs, and Toolson. 

BYU is actually much better on defense this year though. They have Haarms in the middle to keep people out of the paint a bit. They also have athletic guards who are quick and stay in front of their man.

San Francisco has slowed their pace a bit in recent games, and I think the Dons are okay with a more defensive contest here.

I think this one should be priced 4 or 5 points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama won lost night 73-64. Appalachian State shot the ball really poorly from the floor. That was surprising given that South Alabama has what is probably the worst defense in the Sun Belt. I would expect Appalachian State to bounce back with a better shooting performance here. There were very few free throws in last night's contest. There are likely to be a few more today. 

Last year's meetings between these two flew over this total and yesterday's game should have been a little higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at the slowest pace of any team in the Mountain West. Wyoming has pushed the tempo against several teams this year, but they have also had the occasional slow paced contest. I think Air Force can dictate the tempo in this game. 

Wyoming has shot the ball well so far this year, but they have regression signs on offense. They have been playing a bunch of really weak defenses and their numbers should come back down to their expected outputs.

Air Force has been better defensively at home, and they get this contest at home.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are playing at the single slowest pace of any team in basketball in conference play. They are using 21.7 seconds in an average possession. That is running the shot clock down to 8.3 seconds on average, which is stall ball at its best. 

Bradley plays at an average pace, but the Braves are clearly better on defense than offense. Bradley has already played a couple very low scoring games this year and Evansville is the slowest paced team they have played.

I wouldn't expect transition points in this one. Both teams run the clock and look for a jumper. This is a low total, but it is low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs want to play very fast this year. They have been using a full court press to try to create scoring opportunities in transition. UNC Greensboro also uses pressure defense. Both of these teams foul a lot and their games can end up adding up quickly late in the game because of the trips to the stripe.

They just played a couple days ago and the final total was 150. Samford was 5/26 from 3 in that game. Both teams shot below 65% from the free throw line as well. That game should have been near 160 instead of 150.

With a total slightly lower here, I'll take the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears are healthy once again. This Mercer offense is going to do some major damage with Alvarez and Cummings in the backcourt. This is an excellent offensive team.

Western Carolina has a star on offense in Faulkner. The Catamounts have been out of action lately, but they will be one of the better offenses and one of the worse defenses in this conference. 

Look for a fast pace and the offenses to have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State 57-45 win over San Diego State on Thursday night was very impressive. Utah State doesn't have Merrill this year and that really hurts their offense. Their defense is even better this year though. 

San Diego State lost their key contributors on offense from last year as well, but they are even better on defense also.

This game is totaled right about where the first one was, and I think that is too high. Open looks will be very tough to come by in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders had 5 players out due to COVID and contract tracing issues last weekend. Their coach said this week that at least a couple of those guys will be out again this weekend. 

MTSU had been playing very fast earlier in the season, but they slowed things down drastically without their star players last weekend. They played two very low scoring games (123 and 123 points) against a very fast paced FIU team that usually piles up the points. Now, MTSU takes on a Southern Miss team that might be the best under team in Conference USA. 

Southern Miss plays at an extremely slow pace and they don't have much of an identity on offense. The Golden Eagles are improved on defense as are the Blue Raiders this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had the Louisiana under last game against Little Rock and that was the right side, but it lost due to overtime. Louisiana is far worse on offense than they have been in most of their recent seasons. They are also far better on defense thanks to a couple big shot blockers in the middle of the lane. While Louisiana does still play fast, this is a team that has had their totals posted too high. Only one of their games against a Division One opponent has gone over this posted total in regulation.

UT Arlington has been up and down in terms of pace. This could be a fast paced game. Still, I'm not sure the efficiency on offense will be there. Arlington is shorthanded right now and that plays a role in this wager as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been bet down to a point where I have to back the over. South Alabama is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They don't play particularly fast, but many of their games still end up getting to a high number. 

Appalachian State's offense has improved in their second year under good offensive minded coach Dustin Kerns. 

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 152 and 148 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Monmouth played fast last year, but they are playing at a whole different level this season. The Hawks are pushing the ball in transition as fast as they ever have. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this season. 

Quinnipiac has shown that they typically play to the pace of their opponent. They played slow games against Manhattan, but played very fast against Fairleigh Dickinson and New Hampshire. 

The two meetings between these two last year both sailed over this total finishing at 154 and 167 points. 

I see the pace being very quick here. If we see a tempo of 75 possessions, the two teams don't even have to average 1 point per possession to get us to this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Washington shot the ball far over their season averages in their last game against California. I don't expect them to shoot the ball well against this USC defense.

Washington shoots 26.7% from three point range on the season. The Huskies like to get inside and try to get to the rim. That won't be easy against a USC team that ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shot percentage. USC's Evan Mobley is a difference maker on the interior and he should give Washington's offense a ton of trouble here.

The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year. USC had a terrible time with the Washington zone defense last season. They scored 40 points in the first meeting against Washington and only 62 in the second meeting.

This total is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are one of my favorite teams to take an over with. Portland State presses all game long and forces the tempo. They are going to put the opposition on the free throw line a bunch of times. Montana State shot free throws at 74% last year and they are at 74% again so far this year. They should take advantage of these opportunities.

Portland State's offense has been bad so far this year, but they have played some solid defenses. The Portland State defense has been even worse, and they haven't faced many teams who can shoot the ball well at all. Montana State is a solid offensive team.

Take the over here.