Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 145 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I'll be surprised if Chris Beard lets his Red Raiders get into a track meet with West Virginia. Beard is an excellent coach, and Texas Tech and West Virginia played two games that went into OT last year and both were way under this total in regulation. Texas Tech is slowing the pace down on offense quite a bit more in Big 12 play than they were in non-conference action. West Virginia can struggle in halfcourt sets on offense. I expect a game where neither team gets many easy looks. Take the under. |
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01-13-18 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | 82-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans haven't played very well in their last couple games. They were blown away by Ohio State and then were fortunate to win in overtime against Rutgers. Expect Tom Izzo's bunch to play much better here. I think that means improved defensive intensity. Michigan doesn't want any kind of fast paced basketball here. The Wolverines have done a nice job controlling tempo in the past, and they are much better on defense this year than they have been in recent years. A rivalry game tends to lead to better defensive efforts on the whole. Take the under. |
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01-11-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 142.5 | 57-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders defense has been the best in Conference USA for the last few seasons. They should be the best again this year. MTSU is allowing only 0.877 points per possession inside the conference so far. Louisiana Tech no longer plays at a really quick pace like they did when current Florida coach Mike White was there. The Bulldogs could only score 61 points at MTSU last year in a 71-61 loss. Both of the teams are very similar to last year's teams, and I don't see a reason for this kind of adjustment on the total. MTSU likes to slow the game down and they have slightly less offensive weapons this year with Jacorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw having graduated at the end of last season. Take the under. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 155.5 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the CAA. The Seahawks are also terrible on defense. Wilmington is allowing 1.143 points per possession for the season, which is 339th out of 351 teams in the country. They are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 45% from 3 point range. Elon's offense has been excellent of late. The Phoenix shoot up a bunch of 3's, and they should get the open looks here. Elon has sped up their tempo since CAA play started up. Elon's defense is worse than a year ago, and UNC Wilmington should get up a bunch of shots here and score a solid amount of points. The early move down on this total isn't justified. Take the over. |
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01-10-18 | Missouri State v. Evansville UNDER 127 | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Offense should be hard to come by in this Missouri Valley Conference showdown. Missouri State is 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Evansville is 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is 97th in offensive efficiency. Evansville is 213th in offensive efficiency. Evansville really slows the pace of the game. They rank 339th in overall tempo. Missouri State isn't much faster at 317th. This one should be played to a pace of around 61 possessions. Both teams are better at not fouling than they are at getting to the line. In their last 7 games vs. a D 1 opponent, Evansville hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of those games. Missouri State hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of their last six games either. These teams are consistently low scoring. Take the under. |
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01-10-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 150.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have almost always ended up playing at a slow tempo under Bruce Weber when things get tight. Early in the year, they sometimes run against lesser opponents, but in the Big 12 this has been a team that likes to force games into a half court contest. We're seeing signs of this already this season. Oklahoma State has played against a bunch of teams that push the tempo. I believe their numbers are a bit skewed toward the fast side thanks to games against teams like Oklahoma, UT Rio Grande Valley (7th in nation in pace), and West Virginia. The Cowboys are more efficient on defense than offense as well. I think this total should be in the 144 or 145 area, so I see a significant amount of value here. Take the under. |
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01-10-18 | George Washington v. Davidson UNDER 138 | 45-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have been great at forcing a slow tempo this year. Since December 1, George Washington has played one game that has gone over this total. That was last game against Rhode Island when the Rams torched the nets for 81 points in a 81-60 win at GW. Davidson is playing at a slower tempo this year. They rank 250th in tempo. They were in the top 100 in pace just two years ago. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither team fouls very much. That's a big bonus in addition to the slow tempo. Barring some very high shooting numbers from long range, this one should stay under. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 141.5 | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 293rd in the nation in overall tempo. They set up a zone and slow the game down. Eastern Michigan has been reliant on getting to the line on the offensive end in many years of late. They aren't very good in half court sets. Central Michigan ranks in the top ten in least fouls committed so far this year. Central Michigan is 259th in overall tempo this year. The Chippewas were 5th last year. They have obviously undergone a significant tempo change this season. I don't expect to see them force the pace as they did last year against Eastern Michigan. This is definitely a rivalry game and on the whole I believe that helps the under as the defenses stay fully engaged most of the times in these matchups. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 155.5 | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without their star big man in Jason Carter. They have very little inside presence. Jordan Dartis who averages 13.3 points per game, is questionable in this one. Dartis has a hip injury. Ball State is also without two players. Jontrell Walker is suspended after being arrested recently. Walker averaged 8 points per game. Zach Gunn is out with an injury and he averages 5.5 points per game. Ball State has slowed their tempo down noticeably in the last few games. They are clearly playing slower than last year. Ohio plays a little quicker, but they are far less efficient on offense. Neither team is good at getting to the line and both teams don't foul much at all. The injuries here combined with Ball State's slow it down style of late makes me think this one stays below 150. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL UNDER 151 | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are both excellent on the defensive end. Miami is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Hurricanes are third in effective field goal percentage defense. Florida State is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. Miami is playing faster than they were last year, but I still don't see them wanting to have a track meet here. Only four of their games so far this year have been played to a pace of higher than 70 possessions. Their two games against Florida State last year played to a 62 and 57 pace. Both of these offenses have been inconsistent this year, and they are up against one of the best defenses they have faced yet. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | William & Mary v. Drexel OVER 154 | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* William & Mary has played 14 games this year. Of those games, 12 of the 14 have gone over this total. The Tribe are first in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage at a whopping 43.9%. The Tribe are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. William & Mary has been great on offense in the last few years, but their defense has continued to be a problem. It is again this year. They are allowing 1.116 points per possession (318th in the country). Drexel wants to run under Coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons have picked up the tempo in CAA play so far. They are third in tempo in CAA action. William & Mary is first. This game should be played at a quick pace. Drexel is allowing an eye popping 1.233 points per possession in their three CAA games this year. The Dragons allowd 108 points to William & Mary in one of the meetings last year. Take the over. |
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01-07-18 | Niagara v. Marist OVER 157.5 | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles rank 13th in the nation in least time spent per offensive possession. They are shooting it on average after only 14.8 seconds of their possession. This team is flying up and down the floor. Niagara also ranks 98th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. What about defense? They are terrible. They rank 330th out of 351. Niagara is definitely a team that can make games very high scoring. Marist is shooting it about one full second on average quicker than last year. Marist is 323rd in defensive efficiency, so we have two teams that prefer to play fast here and two teams who are terrible on the defensive end. A big bonus is the trips to the charity stripe. Marist is 40th out of 351 in the nation in FT per field goal attempted. Niagara is 52nd in the nation in FT/FGA. There should be plenty of free throws here. I had this number quite a bit higher than this. Take the over. |
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01-07-18 | Temple v. UCF UNDER 133 | 39-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are an elite defense. They ranked 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 7th so far this season. Temple was 168th in that statistic last year, and they are 117th so far this year. UCF is expected to be without point guard BJ Taylor again for this one. Taylor is the best scorer on the team. Chance McSpadden is doubtful and he has averaged 6 pts per game this year as well. UCF relies on getting to the line to score, and Temple is good at defending without fouling. Temple and UCF are both happy to play at a slow tempo. Temple is 268th in overall tempo out of 351 in the country. UCF is 291st. This is an early start on a Sunday as well which is a positive for the under in the long run according to the numbers. I think this one stays in the 120's. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Duke v. NC State OVER 166 | 85-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils are easily first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging a whopping 1.256 points per possession on offense this season. Duke is playing from inside out this year, and NC State doesn't have the defensive presence in the inside to slow down the Duke frontcourt. Duke's average possession length is 16th quickest in the country. NC State is 25th in that same statistic. These two teams are both flying up and down the floor. Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding. Look for a very high scoring game here. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 7th in average possession length out of 351 teams last year. They were pushing the pace like crazy. This year they rank 297th out of 351 teams. They have slowed things down dramatically. It's hard for the oddsmakers to make numbers on this team's games. Kent State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent since Rob Senderoff has been there. This is a team that sometimes plays really quick, and sometimes is forced into a low possessions game. They very rarely dictate the pace. With the tempo I expect in this game, it would take some very high shooting percentages to go over this number. Kent State relies on free throws for a lot of their offensive production and Central Michigan is top five in the nation at not fouling. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 163.5 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Wofford has an offense that should shred up the Southern Conference. Wofford just shoots the ball so well. Fletcher Magee is shooting 53.4% from 3 point range on the season and he has taken 104 shots from 3 point range. The Citadel will probably finish first or second in the nation in overall tempo this year. As high as this number is, Citadel has gone over it in 11 of their 14 games so far this year. Their defense is among the bottom 20 in the nation. Wofford and Citadel have played 4 times in the last couple years. The lowest final total was 169 points. The other 3 games all finished at 188 points or higher. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | UCLA v. California OVER 155.5 | 107-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are going to push the pace all year long. UCLA is 22nd in the nation in average possession length. They are only using half the shot clock on average to put up a shot. UCLA ranks in the top 50 at getting to the line. Cal prefers to play fast too, and their defense has been really poor this year. Cal has been giving up a lot of second chance points. Cal ranks 7th in the nation FT attempts per field goal attempted. Expect lots of free throws in this game. This one should get to 160 or higher. Take the over. |
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01-06-18 | Southern Illinois v. Valparaiso UNDER 142 | 72-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders really miss Alec Peters. Peters was their go to guy the last few years, and their offense is struggling without him. Valpo was 139th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 247th so far this year. Southern Illinois has consistently been a MVC team who slows the pace down. The Salukis are 284th in average possession length so far this year. They also rank 57th in effective field goal percentage defense. Both of these teams have been wasting a lot of possessions with turnovers of late. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Duquesne v. Fordham UNDER 133 | 64-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Fordham is 284th in overall tempo this year. Duquesne is 304th in tempo. This should be a very slow paced game. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes playing a much slower pace this year in his first year at the school. The oddsmakers are trying to react to that change, but they aren't quite there yet. Both of these teams have very poor jump shooting numbers on the year. The combination of a slow tempo and two poor offenses is great for the under here. My number here was 127. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 137.5 | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a lot of trouble forcing the pace against Virginia. North Carolina has never gotten a matchup against Virginia to a higher tempo than 67 possessions dating back to 2014. Last year, the two meetings between these two were played at 61 possessions and 55 possessions. Virginia is tremendous at making you play their game. This game is at Virginia, and that helps here. While North Carolina is playing fast again this year, they are 100th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They rely on second chance points, and Virginia is great on the defensive glass. Virginia is only 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are easily first in defensive efficiency. I see them dictating a lower scoring game. Take the under. |
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01-06-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 146 | 46-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are similar in that they are both significantly better on defense than offense. Georgia is 186th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they are a very impressive 16th in effective field goal percentage defense. Alabama is 94th on offense in this stat and 47th on defense. Georgia is playing quite a bit slower this year. The Bulldogs are 267th in overall tempo in the country. Georgia has only had 2 of their 13 games go over this number in regulation this year. Take the under. |
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01-05-18 | James Madison v. Hofstra OVER 147 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes are playing nearly six possessions quicker so far this year vs. a year ago. James Madison also ranked 196th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 318th in that same statistic so far this year. James Madison has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. If this game is played at that tempo, the over has an excellent chance of cashing. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in the last three years in offensive efficiency. So far this year they are 86th, but I think they will improve on offense in league play. Hofstra's defense is very weak. The Pride prefer to outscore teams in high scoring games, and they should push the pace here once again. Hofstra has only had 5 games stay under this total so far this year. They have had eight games finish at 161 points or higher, so Hofstra is often involved in very high scoring games. Take the over. |
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01-05-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Towson OVER 152.5 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Towson Tigers made it clear in the preseason they wanted to play faster this year. Coach Pat Skerry said he wanted his team to have chances in transition. Towson hasn't played much quicker this year, but it is at least partially because of who they have played against. The Tigers have faced a bunch of very slow paced teams. That changes here. UNC Wilmington ranks 11th in the nation in tempo. That is the fastest paced team Towson has played this year. In their game against Oakland (15th in tempo in the country), Towson lost 97-86 and the pace was a blistering 80 possessions. Wilmington's defense ranks 322nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Towson should get to the line a bunch against them as well since they foul at a very high rate. Both teams are good at getting second chance points. Take the over. |
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01-04-18 | Arizona v. Utah UNDER 145.5 | 94-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have decided to play stall ball in their last two games. It has worked really well. I expect to see it again here. In their last two games, Utah is using a remarkable 23.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock to shoot the ball on average. Their win at Oregon saw a mind boggling low pace of just 55 possessions. They followed that up with a low 60 possession game against Oregon State. Arizona has more talent than Utah, and Utah isn't going to want to get into a high scoring game against the Wildcats here. Arizona is a team that often plays to the pace of their opponent. If Utah is slowing things down even close to the rate they have been in recent games, it will be very hard to get a game above a total in the mid 140's. Take the under. |
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01-04-18 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 130 | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* South Alabama likes to push the pace, but they are terrible on offensive when it comes to efficiency. South Alabama ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their offensive possessions. They are 313th out of 351 in offensive efficiency overall. South Alabama's defense ranks 88th best in the nation in defensive efficiency. This team has been getting after it on defense. Texas State is 267th in offensive efficiency. The Bobcats also rank 345th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. This is a team that does a tremendous job slowing the game down. South Alabama has had 7 of their 14 games go under this total despite playing quickly. Texas State has seen 8 go under this number and 1 push of their 15 games. Good line value here. Take the under. |
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01-04-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oral Roberts OVER 150.5 | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons have been great at forcing the tempo the last couple years. Fort Wayne has played 17 games this year and stunningly they haven't played a single game below a tempo of 70 possessions. Of their 17 games this year, 15 of them have gone over this total. Oral Roberts has played quick with teams like Arkansas, Nebraska Omaha, and UNLV already this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow the game down very much here either. Oral Roberts has played 7 of their 16 games over this number. ORU ranks 288th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Fort Wayne is 19th in the country in overall tempo, and they have torched the nets in Summit League play the last couple years. They should be able to do it again this year. This number is several points too low. Take the over. |
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01-04-18 | Tennessee-Martin v. Austin Peay UNDER 137 | 69-75 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors play a completely different style than they did a year ago. Last year, Austin Peay was playing quickly and had one of the worst defenses in the country. They brought in a new coach, Matt Figgers, who has this team playing aggressive defense and forcing loads of turnovers. Tennessee Martin plays a unique zone defense that is typically a 3-2 zone, and zones have given Austin Peay serious problems so far this year. Austin Peay is scoring 0.78 points per possession against zone defenses on the season. Tennessee Martin ranks 332nd out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. I'm counting on them to slow the pace of the game with their zone. Both teams rank among the 60 worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball. A lot of turnovers in the halfcourt means a lot of wasted possessions. Take the under here. |
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01-03-18 | Valparaiso v. Bradley UNDER 135.5 | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves were 5-27 two years ago. They are 11-4 so far this year. Brian Wardle is doing a tremendous job turning this team around. It all starts with defense. Bradley ranks 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, and they are 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. Valparaiso enters a much tougher league this year as they jump from the Horizon League to the MVC. The Crusaders are struggling as well because Tevonn Walker still isn't 100% from having Mono for several weeks. Valpo's offense ranks 253rd in offensive efficiency. Bradley ranks 239th in that category. This look like a good old fashioned Missouri Valley Conference defensive duel. I don't think either team will find many open looks here. Take the under. |
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01-03-18 | East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 132.5 | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates get together in a game that should be really ugly. South Florida ranks 341st in the nation in overall tempo. They are the home team here and they should be able to control the tempo here. South Florida is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have serious turnover problems, and they can't shoot it. Combine that with their slow tempo and you get a team that can put up some really low numbers. East Carolina is even worse on offense. The Pirates rank 344th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country. Like USF, they are in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offensive possessions. They have scored 53 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The defenses should have a big edge here. This line is 8 points too high in my opinion. Take the under for a top rated play. |
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01-03-18 | George Washington v. Duquesne UNDER 132 | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Duquesne has been very consistent at playing at a slow pace this year. The Dukes have seen 7 of their 14 games finish with 132 points total or less. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the country in overall tempo. This team has played 12 straight games that have finished at 139 points or lower. This total is lower than that, but it shows the consistency of George Washington in keeping the game low scoring. In this contest, they'll face another opponent who wants to walk it up. Duquesne is 300th in overall tempo this year. The Dukes have played the weakest schedule in the country so far this year, so while their offensive numbers are decent, I'm not convinced they will stay that way. This projects as a game that finishes around 60 possessions, and that makes me project a game in the mid 120's. Take the under. |
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01-02-18 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt UNDER 150 | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores scored 54 points in the second half of their loss to Florida this past Saturday, but this is a team that has struggled to shoot the ball much of the year. Vanderbilt ranks 320th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. That is an extremely slow pace of play. To see a total this high with a team that plays that slowly is a rarity. Alabama ranks 63rd in the country in overall tempo, but the Crimson Tide are quite a bit better on defense than they are on offense. Alabama ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. I see this one playing out to a tempo of about 68 possessions, and at that pace it takes some very high shooting percentages to get over this number. Take the under. |
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01-02-18 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 149.5 | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have completely changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 5th in the nation in overall tempo last year. Where are they so far this year? The Chippewas rank 295th out of 351 in tempo this year. Coach Davis knows he doesn't have the same kind of offensive firepower this year, and he wants his team to take care of the basketball and play defense to win lower scoring games. It has worked thus far. Central Michigan has played 8 of their 10 Division One opponent games to a total of 147 or less. Ohio plays pretty quickly, but I think the Bobcats will be better on defense than offense in conference play this year. Ohio tends to put up a lot of shots from long range, and the strength of Central Michigan's defense is defending the three. I think this number is too high based on the large change from Central Michigan from last year to this year. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA OVER 159.5 | 53-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 15th quickest pace of any team in the country (average possession length). UCLA is going to push the tempo regardless of what kind of defense you play. Washington is 66th in that same category (out of 351 teams) so they are looking to push the pace too. UCLA has multiple shooters that should be able to shoot over the Washington zone. The Bruins will also get plenty of second chance opportunities against the zone. Washington and UCLA are both getting to the line at a very high rate. There should be a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one. I had this one at 165 points, and I'll take the over here. |
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12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso UNDER 140.5 | 67-50 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Both Valparaiso and Missouri State are defensive-minded teams. Though Valpo has picked up their pace some on offense, they aren't efficient on that end of the floor. Valpo ranks 225th in offensive efficiency. The Crusaders are turning the ball over way too much. Tevonn Walker is back after a long absence, but he is less than 100 percent after dealing with mono for the last few weeks. He is their main man on offense. Missouri State ranks 309th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the country. The Bears definitely want to move slowly, and they'll try to control the pace here. Valpo is 55th in effective field goal percentage defense and Missouri State is 17th. These are two excellent defenses. I look for a very hotly contested league game where the total stays under. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 53-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats excel at slowing the game down. They are able to force their style of play onto almost every opponent. A good example of this is their last game against Appalachian State. Appalachian State runs and hadn't played a game to a pace slower than 69 possessions all year. Texas State held that game down to 63 possessions against Appalachian State. Last year, Texas State and Coastal Carolina met twice. Those games finished with 102 and 113 points. In both games, the pace was slow. Coastal Carolina ranks 267th in average possession length, so they like to play slowly too. Texas State's possession length average is 342nd out of 351 teams in the country. Both of these teams have trouble taking care of the basketball. A bunch of wasted trips usually leads to lower scoring games. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Rider v. Niagara OVER 171 | 99-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I'm not a fan of taking an over on a number this high very often, but here I have to do it. Rider and Niagara are pushing the pace to an extreme level this year. While an average game plays to about 69 possessions in college basketball, I think there is a good chance this one plays to a pace of 80 possessions. That's a bunch of extra shot attempts for each team. Niagara is 324th in defensive efficiency. They haven't been able to stop anyone all year. Rider is 202nd in defensive efficiency. Rider is 104th in offensive efficiency and Niagara is 91st. Both offenses are much improved from last year. Rider averaged 1.009 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.071 per possession. Niagara averaged only 1.014 last year and they are up to 1.084 this year. This should be an all out track meet. The two teams are 16th and 57th in free throws per field goal attempt too, so plenty of free throws should be expected. Take the over. |
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12-30-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 147 | 74-81 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are 320th out of 351 teams in the country in average possession length. This is a team that wants to slow the game down on a consistent basis. Florida is a team that plays quickly, but their defense is excellent. Florida ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency in the country in the last two seasons. The Gators will be very good defensively again this year. These teams met three times last year with Vanderbilt upsetting Florida all three times. None of the games went over this posted total. The finals were 144, 134, and 134 in OT (116 in regulation). Both offenses have dipped significantly in efficiency compared to last season. I see no reason for this number to be this high. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | St. Joe's v. George Washington UNDER 137 | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials play at an extremely slow pace. George Washington is 348th out of 351 in overall pace of play this year. The Colonials host St Joe's here. St. Joe's is playing quickly this year, but they have played a bunch of opponents who run so far this year. This is a whole different ballgame. Last year, they played to a 68-63 game against George Washington and the tempo was only 61 possessions. St. Joe's played to a 71-58 game at a pace of 60 possessions against Princeton this year. Princeton plays slightly quicker than George Washington, and I see that game as an example of a team being able to slow down St. Joe's. This total is a few points high. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Drexel v. Elon UNDER 140.5 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix and Drexel Dragons have changed a lot since a year ago. Elon's Matt Matheny decided to slow his offense down this year. Just two years ago, Elon ranked 49th in tempo in the country. They now rank 282nd out of 351 teams. Elon is also a good under team because they are first in the nation in least fouls committed. On offense they rank 336th at getting to the line. Drexel was 101st in average possession length (playing quickly) last year. The Dragons are 252nd this year. A huge pace change for Drexel as well. Drexel is giving up only 1.03 points per possession this year compared to 1.10 points per possession last year. The Dragons are moving slower and playing much better defense. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough here. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Boston College v. Virginia UNDER 129 | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. Combine that with a defense that ranks first in the nation in efficiency, and you have some very low scoring games. Virginia recently played Savannah State. Savannah State ranks first in the nation in tempo. The final total in that game was an astonishingly low 125 points. Virginia is great at controlling the flow of the game. Boston College plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Eagles are much better at defense now than they were last year and the year before. The last three meetings between these teams have finished with 117, 108, and 125 points. This total is higher than any of those were posted at as well. Take the under. |
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12-29-17 | Iona v. Niagara OVER 161.5 | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs at numbers this high, but I feel the need to take the over here in what I believe will be a shoot out. Iona has historically been a team that plays very quickly. Tim Cluess coached teams push the pace and can score efficiently. They also play very little defense. Iona's tempo numbers are a bit slower so far this year, but they have faced a bunch of teams who like to play slowly. Iona hasn't played a team in the top 45 in the country in offensive tempo. Niagara ranks 19th there, so this is easily the fastest team they have played against. The fastest team they have played to this point was Ohio, and their contest against them finished 93-88. Niagara combines their extremely fast pace with an efficient offense and a defense that ranks among the bottom 25 in the country in efficiency rankings. The Purple Eagles have had an amazing 8 of their 13 games so far this year finish at 170 points or higher. Look for back and forth action and a tight high scoring contest. Because of the spread here, overtime is always a possibility as well. Take the over. |
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12-28-17 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131.5 | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Toreros are going to win with defense this year. That's the way Lamont Smith wants it to be. San Diego ranks 50th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Toreros rank a very impressive second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. San Francisco is without Charles Minlend due to an injury. He's a guy who really hurt San Diego last year. The Dons aren't as good on offense this year, but they are even better than last year on defense. The Dons are 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. San Francisco is using nearly one second more of the shot clock on average this year, and San Diego always wants to play slowly. Both offenses rank terribly when it comes to efficiency. San Diego is 221st and San Francisco is 254th. This projects as a defensive battle between two teams who don't have many good scoring options. These are two teams who clearly are better on the defensive end. I had this one lined in the mid 120's. Take the under. |
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12-28-17 | Southern Miss v. Marshall OVER 152.5 | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the country in average time of possession. That means they shoot the ball on average the third quickest out of 351 teams in the country. They are really pushing the pace. That will continue with the D'Antoni system at Marshall. Marshall has scored 83 points or more in 10 of their 13 games this year. The Thundering Herd have scored 91 points or more in 7 of their contests. Marshall is going to push the pace and score a bunch here. If Southern Miss wants to have a chance, they'll have to score quite a few. Marshall's defense isn't very good, and Southern Miss should be a bit improved this season. The Golden Eagles generally slow the game down, but they have already played in three games against Division One opponents where the tempo was 71 or faster. Marshall will force the tempo here. Last year, the final was 91-76 when these two met. Two years ago, Marshall won 108-106 at home in OT. This total is a few points too low here. Take the over. |
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12-23-17 | Princeton v. Akron UNDER 142.5 | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips and Princeton Tigers play for the second straight day in Hawaii on a neutral court. Neutral courts are definitely a good thing for unders in the long run, and with short rest for both teams I consider it an even stronger under signal. Princeton excels at controlling the tempo. The Tigers are going to want the pace to be slow here, and they should be able to dictate that tempo. The Tigers ranked 337th in tempo out of 351 teams last year. They rank exactly the same so far this season. Akron's average possession length suggests they prefer to play slower as well. With a total set this high, it will take much higher than average shooting numbers to get past this number. Take the under. |
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12-22-17 | Davidson v. New Mexico State UNDER 142.5 | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by former Wichita State assistant Chris Jans. Jans is a defensive-minded coach, and his teams tend to play slower than average. New Mexico State has a lot of talent, and they are coming off an upset win against Illinois. The Aggies are excellent on the defensive glass. This New Mexico State team is underrated by most. Davidson isn't the quality team they were a few years ago, but they are a solid team. They no longer run like they did in the past. They are an average paced team. Davidson shoots a ton of 3's, and New Mexico State has traditionally been excellent defending the long range jumper. They were 9th in the country in 3 point defense last year, and they are only allowing 33.3% makes this year so far as well. This game is played on a neutral floor in Hawaii. Neutral sites are positives for the under. Shooting numbers on the average are lower, and this is a weird game for both teams with their body clocks off with the big time change. Take the under. |
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12-21-17 | Portland State v. California OVER 166 | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears like to run under Wyking Jones. Cal ranks 82nd in the country (out of 351) in overall tempo. Cal's defense isn't good. They have allowed 89 points or more on four occasions this year. Portland State will be the fastest paced team they have played so far this year. Portland State's Barrett Peery has his team playing an uptempo pressing defense that leads to run outs and lots of drive and kick outs for 3's. Portland State is 4th in the nation in pace of play. This team is absolutely flying. Portland State has seen 8 of their last 11 games go over this lofty total. The Vikings will push the pace. Both of these teams are elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the line. It all adds up to a very high scoring affair. The over is 8-0 in Portland State's last 8 following a win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 non-conference games. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-21-17 | Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5 | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals and UC Irvine Anteaters are both teams who win with defense first. They are also both teams who slow the game down most of the time. UC Irvine was terrible on defense in their last game, and I expect a better performance from them here. Idaho and UC Irvine both have a big turnover problem on offense. A lot of empty possessions typically leads to unders. Recently, both of these teams have been playing to a slower pace on offense than they were at the start of the season. This game is played at a neutral arena, and that is definitely a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-21-17 | Tennessee Tech v. Indiana OVER 151 | 59-87 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Indiana's offense was dreadful in their loss to Fort Wayne. Their defense was just as bad. The Hoosiers will look to get back on track against Tennessee Tech here. Tennessee Tech pushes the pace to an extreme. The Golden Eagles have gotten into multiple very high scoring games this year. Not only are they very fast paced, but they also play very little defense. Both of these teams are good at getting to the line, and there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe during this contest. I think Indiana hangs a big number here and Tenn Tech contributes plenty too. Take the over. |
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12-21-17 | American v. Marquette UNDER 150 | 51-92 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* In the past ten years, games where the home team is favored by 15 points or more and the total is 139.5 or higher have gone under the total 55.1% of the time in the first 3 months of the season. Why? In blowouts there is less chance of a foul fest obviously, and the team ahead generally slows the pace down late. Also, officials are more likely to swallow their whistle. American finished as the slowest paced team in the country in 2015 and 2016. This is a team that tries to stall as much as possible. Marquette's tempo is right around the average pace in the country. A total of 150 with one team that goes extremely slowly and one team that is medium paced is awfully high. Marquette is certainly very efficient on offense, so they could score plenty here. They have shown they will slow down against a similar opponent to American earlier this year though. They beat Mount St Mary's 80-59 in the season opener. Take the under. |
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12-19-17 | Elon v. Canisius UNDER 145.5 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix were playing too fast last year. Their coach said in the offseason that they needed to slow things down to have more long-term success. They have slowed things down significantly this season. The oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted. This is one of those cases where it takes a long time for the oddsmakers to adjust a team that is under the radar like Elon. Canisius is also playing slower this year. Canisius plays against a bunch of teams that like to push the pace, but when they can they prefer to play slowly. Canisius has played eight straight games that have stayed under this total. I made this number 138, so I see a significant amount of value in this one. Take the under. |
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12-18-17 | Tennessee State v. Texas OVER 121 | 46-47 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns are pushing the pace more this year than they have in the last couple seasons. As Shaka Smart has gotten more of his own type of player, they are looking to play quicker. Texas is no doubt much better on defense than offense. Still, with them pushing the pace on offense, this is an awfully low total. This is the type of total you expect in a Virginia game because of their amazing defense and extremely slow tempo. Tennessee State isn't going to try to run,but they are likely to get behind and be forced to play quicker to try to come back. This isn't one I had expected to be taking, but the extreme low number gives it value. Take the over. |
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12-18-17 | Boise State v. SMU UNDER 134.5 | 63-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* SMU has ran the score up on some poor teams they have played this year, but their game totals have stayed under this total in 8 of 11 games. SMU has also shown that they want to slow the tempo of the game even more when they are playing better competition. They slowed the game to a crawl against fast paced USC in a win recently. SMU then ran with TCU and lost. I expect them to control the tempo and play slowly here. Boise State ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense when ranked by efficiency. The Broncos are number one in defensive rebounding. SMU typically relies on offensive rebounding a lot, and they aren't likely to get as many as normal here. Both teams are top 30 in defense, and both offenses are worse than they were last year. A low scoring tighter game here. Take the under. |
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12-18-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Indiana OVER 151.5 | 92-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons beat Indiana last season. That was a stunner and one of the bigger upsets of the season. Indiana now hosts Fort Wayne, and they aren't going to take them lightly this time. Fort Wayne lost quite a bit from last year, and Indiana has played better in recent games. This is a spot where I think Indiana keeps the pedal down more than normal because of the revenge factor from last year. Fort Wayne has played 12 games this year and 11 of them have gone over this posted total. They play quickly, and they aren't very good on defense. They are capable of getting red hot from 3 point range. Indiana has seen six of their 11 games go over this total in regulation as well. The Hoosiers offense has been very efficient of late. Take the over. |
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12-18-17 | Charleston Southern v. Florida State OVER 147.5 | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles have scored at least 87 points in each of their home games this year. They play a Charleston Southern team tonight that is terrible defensively. Charleston Southern allowed 110 points to Davidson in the season opener. Florida State beat Charleston Southern 88-67 last year, and I see a very similar game this year. Florida State will push the pace in a big way. The Seminoles haven't played a game pacing below 70 possessions all season. Florida State has shown they are willing to run the score up, and that will likely be the case again here. Take the over. |
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12-17-17 | Penn State v. George Mason UNDER 145 | 72-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions do like to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense. Penn State ranks 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are actually playing slightly slower on offense than they did a year ago, and their defense is even better than last year. George Mason ranked 131st in overall pace last year. They are 251st so far this year. Dave Paulsen's teams have typically liked to slow the game down, and this year's team has less offensive firepower. It makes sense that they are going slower this year. The initial line move up on this game doesn't make sense to me. I have this as a game that stays in the 130's. Both teams turn it over quite a bit, so there should be a lot of empty trips. Good value on this one. Take the under. |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 136 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego Toreros rank 300th in average possession length on offense out of 351 teams in the country. North Texas ranks 315th. These two teams will play a very slow paced game here. North Texas is 255th in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 223rd in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 51st in the nation in defense. While North Texas is a poor defense, San Diego has shown that they are happy to slow the game down drastically when they get a lead. They are a big favorite here, and they should have a lead. San Diego has played 10 games this year, and only one of them has gone over this posted total. North Texas has seen a mixed bag, but I expect San Diego to control the flow of this game. Take the under big. |
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12-16-17 | UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157 | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers want to play fast under Coach Damon Stoudamire. Here's their chance. UNLV is going to run at every opportunity here. UNLV ranks 6th out of 351 in the nation in average possession length. Marvin Menzies has this talented Runnin' Rebels team pushing tempo at every chance. Pacific has run with three opponents this year. They played an 89-80 game against Stanford. They played an 89-74 game against Nevada. They played a 86-72 game against Wyoming. I expect UNLV to get the lead here and force Pacific to play from behind. UNLV and Pacific both rank in the top 30 in the country in free throw attempts per possession this year. Lots of trips to the charity stripe should come in this one. UNLV has played 8 of their 10 games over this total. I expect another one over the number. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Fresno State OVER 149 | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks will look to push the tempo whenever they can this season. Oregon isn't the same caliber of team they were last year, and that's largely because they don't have the shot blockers on defense that they had a year ago. Fresno State ranked 167th in the country in offensive efficiency last year. They are 57th so far this year. They were 60th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 91st this year on defense. Fresno State has played a bunch of teams that walk the ball up the floor this year, and the Bulldogs haven't had as many high scoring games as you might expect because of that. When they played two fast teams (Arkansas and Long Beach State), the scores were 83-75 and 106-70. Oregon won't play as fast as those two, but they will play quickly. I think this game gets into the mid 150's as both offenses have quite a bit of success. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia v. Massachusetts UNDER 137 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen are a completely different team this year under first year head coach Matt McCall. McCall has always wanted his teams to slow the game down and win with good defense. Last year, UMass was a team that pushed the tempo to an extreme. That's definitely no longer the case. Georgia tends to play to the pace of their opponent under Coach Fox. The Bulldogs have an opponent who wants to play slowly here, and that's how I assume they will play in this one. They have a great big man in Yante Maten, and they'll look to play through him here. UMass ranks 224th in offensive efficiency. The Minutemen have struggled to get good looks, and they often rely on poor shots late in the clock. Take the under. |
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12-13-17 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is a team I always lean toward the under with. The Badgers can control the pace as well as anyone in the nation. Their offense isn't very good this year either. They rely far too much on Ethan Happ to do everything. They don't have good guard play. Western Kentucky prefers a slow paced game as well, and the Hilltoppers have had some recent high scoring games against opponents who really like to run, which has given us line value on the under here. Wisconsin is favored, and they are good at taking the air out of the ball if they have the lead late. This number is several points too high. Take the under. |
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12-13-17 | Arkansas State v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks always rank near the very top of the tempo charts at the end of the year in college hoops. Omaha is playing fast again this year. This is a relatively high total, but Omaha has had 159 points or more in 7 of their 11 games so far this year. What about Arkansas State? They have a first year coach who talked about wanting to push the pace in the preseason. They are pushing it. Arkansas State is 57th out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. The tempo here will be very high. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25% of teams in the country in defensive efficiency as well, so there is no reason to expect good defense to be played here. Take the over in this one. |
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12-13-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 131.5 | Top | 46-86 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* Two teams that are far better on defense than on offense. They are also two teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. Little Rock has played 5 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this number in regulation. Bradley has played 6 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this total. They haven't played a game all year that finished higher than 140 points. Bradley's defense is 41st in the country in adjusted efficiency. Their offense is 267th. Little Rock is a miserable 344th in offensive efficiency. With both teams having a big advantage on defense and the tempo of the game staying slow, it will take a rare good shooting effort from these two to send it over. It could happen, but I really like the value here on the under. I had this lined at 121 points. Take the under big. |
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12-12-17 | San Diego v. Colorado UNDER 138 | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes host the San Diego Toreros tonight. San Diego ranks 301st in the nation in average possession length, which means they really slow the tempo down. San Diego is significantly better on defense than offense. San Diego is 239th in offensive efficiency in the country. They are 65th in defensive efficiency. Colorado is also slightly better on defense than offense. The Buffaloes have played to the pace of their opponents so far this year. Most of their opponents have been quick paced teams, which has inflated this number a bit. Both teams turn the ball over at a high rate, which helps the under here as well since neither team is expected to be pressing. Those turnovers in the halfcourt simply waste time. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU OVER 161.5 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks rank 12th in the nation in pace of play. They are pushing the pace at every chance. Their new head coach learned under Roy Williams, and we all know the Tar Heels constantly push the tempo. LSU is playing at an average pace, but they are torching the nets on offense. LSU ranks 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are first in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at an amazing 63.1%. UNC Wilmington ranks 340th in points per possession allowed, so they are almost as bad as anyone in the country on defense. Of UNC Wilmington's games this year, only one of them hasn't gone over this total. LSU has had totals of 178 and 191 in two of their games so they are fully capable. Despite playing almost all slow paced opponents, LSU's games are averaging just over 161 points. UNC Wilmington will keep the tempo moving, and that should lead to a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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12-10-17 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 143 | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears rank 261st in offensive pace (average possession length) out of 351 teams. Oral Roberts ranks 306th. Both teams want to play slowly. Missouri State ranks number 24 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Oral Roberts is 313th in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts only managed 60 points in a loss to Southern Nazarene in their last game. This is a bad team that struggles in a big way to score. Missouri State has shown on multiple occasions that they are happy to slow the game down once they have a lead, and they should be playing from in front here. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota OVER 148.5 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes and Eastern Washington Eagles both play quickly. South Dakota is 57th in the nation in quickest pace on offense (average possession length). Eastern Washington is 83rd. That is out of 351 teams. There's no reason to expect anything other than a quick tempo for this contest. The Eastern Washington defense is the worst unit on the floor here, and South Dakota's efficient offense should pick them apart. Eastern Washington fouls at a high rate and South Dakota is excellent from the line. Eastern Washington has shown many times this year they will keep the game going with the foul game, and they are likely to be down and could be in that situation here. Take the over. |
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12-09-17 | Hofstra v. Rider OVER 153 | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs decided to start pushing the pace last season, and they have continued that this year. The difference between last year's team and this year's team is this group is much more efficient on offense. It is the team getting accustomed to playing the style. Rider's defense has dropped off from last year as Jimmie Taylor, their best defensive player from a year ago, graduated at the end of last season. Hofstra plays at a middling pace, but the Pride are consistently very efficient on offense and really bad on defense. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in offensive efficiency each of the last four seasons. Rider has played 6 of their 9 games this year to a total of 165 points or more. Hofstra's last four games have all been over this number. Look for both teams to put up a lot here. Take the over. |
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12-09-17 | Marshall v. Toledo OVER 164 | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have perfected Dan D'Antoni's uptempo system. Marshall has a bunch of scoring options, and they are going to put up big numbers all year long. Marshall pushes the pace to an extreme level. They rank 4th in the nation in average possession length on offense. Toledo has played faster this season. The Rockets went to Marshall last year and the game finished 111-105 in overtime. Before overtime the teams were knotted at 95. The shooting was exceptional in that game, so I don't expect that number, but with high tempo and two bad defenses I think this should get above the total. Toledo has already played two games that easily passed this total. Marshall has seen 6 of their 9 games go over this number. Take the over. |
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12-09-17 | CS Sacramento v. Boise State UNDER 143 | 54-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Sacramento State Hornets here. Boise State has a huge advantage in this one. Boise State should be able to coast home, and the Broncos have shown a willingness to slow the pace down drastically in the second half of games where they have a big lead. Sacramento State has played seven games against Division One opponents and their highest total is 143 points. Boise State has only played two of their eight games over this total. Neither team plays particularly fast to start with, and Boise State's defense has been excellent. They are giving up the least amount of second chance points of any team in the country. Sacramento State is missing their best player and they'll have a very hard time getting open looks in this one. I made this number significantly lower than this. Take the under. |
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12-07-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Northern Iowa UNDER 136.5 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are very good. UT Arlington has one loss and it was by a point against a good Alabama team. They won at BYU. Northern Iowa has two losses and they are to North Carolina and Villanova. Northern Iowa is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. The Panthers rank 349th in average possession length (time on offense before shooting) out of 351 teams in the country. They aren't going to speed up for anyone. UT Arlington would prefer to play quickly, but Northern Iowa is going put a zone defense up here to control the pace of the game. Arlington's weakness the last couple years has been their outside shooting. This Northern Iowa defense is likely to give them trouble. Northern Iowa has played 8 games. Seven of those games have finished with a total of 126 points or less in regulation. UT Arlington's last three games have been below this total. Take the under here. |
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12-06-17 | Portland State v. Loyola Marymount OVER 156 | 94-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Portland State Vikings have a new coach this year in Barret Peery. Peery said before the season he wanted this team to rank among the fastest paced teams in the country. They are doing it thus far. Portland State is pressing in the full court the entire game, and the Vikings rank in the top 25 in the country in steals forced. They are shooting 40.4% from 3 point range as a team. Portland State is excellent at dictating the pace of the game. Loyola Marymount ranks 260th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Portland State ranks 241st in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot the ball really well against both of these teams. Loyola Marymount has played slower paced teams of late and that gives us line value here. Portland State is going to push the pace here in a big way. Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in offensive rebounds. Expect a bunch of second chance points and trips to the charity stripe. Take the over. |
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12-06-17 | Austin Peay v. Illinois OVER 148.5 | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini have picked up the pace quite a bit under Brad Underwood this year. They are trapping and forcing turnovers and looking to score in transition. Against teams that have a high turnover rate, Illinois has really run up the score. Austin Peay ranks in the bottom 50 in the country (351 teams) in turnover rate. Illinois ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo, and the Fighting Illini should get the steals and quick scores against this Austin Peay team. Both of these teams foul a lot more than the average in college basketball. I see plenty of trips to the line helping this one. Illinois has played five Division I teams that are ranked outside the top 100 in the country. The total in those games has been: 157, 151, 155, 165, and 159. Take the over. |
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12-05-17 | Evansville v. Bowling Green UNDER 142 | 91-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden Gem Total* The Evansville Purple Aces are without star Ryan Taylor right now due to a foot injury. Taylor averaged 14.3 points per game last year, and he was averaging 21 points per game before the injury this season. Evansville is clearly without their leader on offense now, and I expect some bad offensive performances from them. What is Evansville going to do? They'll slow the pace down as best they can. Even before Taylor was injured, Evansville ranked in the bottom 10 out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. Expect them to really try to grind this game out. Bowling Green has played a lot of high scoring games, but this is the first opponent they have played who plays this slowly, and the Evansville defense has been very solid the last couple seasons. Take the under here. |
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova UNDER 148.5 | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Gonzaga/Villanova CASH* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Villanova Wildcats have been excellent on defense in recent years. Villanova has finished in the top 12 in the country in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. Gonzaga has finished in the top 30 in defensive efficiency in each of the last six years. They were number one last year. There's no reason to expect either defense to give up a lot of easy shots here. Madison Square Garden is the best under arena in college basketball. This is a huge arena and the shooting backdrop is difficult. The under has cashed at a better than 60% clip at MSG in college games with a total of 140 or higher in the past ten years. Expect a hard fought game with solid defense here. This number is too high. Take the under. |
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12-03-17 | Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 140 | 84-79 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores meet on Sunday. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo. Kansas State mixes up defenses, and opponents are taking more time to shoot it against Kansas State than any other team in the country. Vanderbilt was a very slow paced team last year, and they are that again this season. The Commodores were more efficient on defense than offense last year, and they are again so far this year. Bruce Weber's teams are consistently better on defense than they are on offense. This total has moved up from the open, and that gives us value on the under. Look for a tightly played game where the pace stays very slow. Take the under. |
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12-02-17 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 140.5 | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played six games against Division One teams this year. Only one of those has gone over this posted total. That one finished at 142 points. Oral Roberts has played 7 Division One teams this year. None of them have ranked in the bottom 100 in tempo. They have played a bunch of fast paced teams. That changes in this one and the line is inflated here. Little Rock likes to run the clock and try to win low scoring games. Oral Roberts plays at a slow tempo as well. Both of these teams have been inefficient on offense so far this year. Both have been really sloppy with the basketball. This total is several points too high. Take the under. |
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12-02-17 | Manhattan v. Towson UNDER 137 | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Manhattan Jaspers were without best scorer Rich Williams on Friday and he is questionable here. Manhattan hasn't been good on offense with him, and without him they really struggle. The Jaspers have slowed their tempo down drastically this season. They went from ranking in the top 35% of teams in pace of play to ranking in the bottom 25% of teams this year. Towson always prefers a slow pace, and the Tigers are led by a strong defense. This game is played in Northern Ireland on a neutral site. This is a positive for the under. Shooting percentages tend to be lower at neutral sites. There is a massive time change which doesn't help either. Take the under. |
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11-30-17 | Missouri v. UCF UNDER 136.5 | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are without BJ Taylor right now. Taylor is the most important guy to this UCF offense. Without him, they were a complete mess last season, and it appears the same is true this year. UCF has scored 45 and 43 points in their last two games against West Virginia and St. John's. UCF will be great on defense again this year with Tacko Fall manning the middle and swatting shots away left and right. Missouri will play at a slow pace under Cuonzo Martin. His teams are always halfcourt oriented teams. Missouri has played several teams that want to run a lot this year, but UCF is similar in that they prefer a halfcourt game. Look for good defense from both teams. Take the under. |
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11-30-17 | South Carolina v. Temple UNDER 145 | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks always play great defense under Frank Martin. Martin's teams play relatively quick on offense, but they aren't very efficient, especially since they lost Thornwell from last year's team. Sindarius Thornwell was the guy everything went through on offense for the Final 4 Gamecocks last year. Temple has shot the ball really well this year, but this is an excellent defense they will go up against in this one. Additionally, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is easily the best under arena in basketball. The sight lines are tough here, and college kids have consistently had trouble with shooting in this arena in the long run. Neutral site unders early in the year is a profitable angle, and when it is MSG that is a big bonus. Take the under. |
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11-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Coll Of Charleston UNDER 142 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is an excellent defensive team. They are great at shutting down the opposition and making them take tough shots on the perimeter. Western Carolina was 348th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country last year. They are just slightly better this year, and they were held to 57 and 51 points by Clemson and Cincinnati. C of C is without their best offensive player in Brantley, and that has caused them to slow their tempo even more in recent games. I think they win comfortably here and the defense leads the way. I'll fade the early line move here. Take the under. |
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11-29-17 | Southern Utah v. Pepperdine OVER 160.5 | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are pushing the pace as much as ever under Coach Simon this year. Southern Utah continues to be awful on defense as well. Southern Utah ranks 347th in defensive efficiency so far this year out of 351 teams in the country. Where were they the last two years? They were 350th and 349th. Awful. Southern Utah has a habit of fouling at an epic rate. They tend to do this when losing in the second half, and there can be some very high scores in the second half in their games. Pepperdine is one of those teams that tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and in this case that should mean a very quick tempo. Pepperdine is great at getting to the line and they should get a lot of trips there in this one. A quick tempo and a lot of points here. Take the over. |
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11-29-17 | Pennsylvania v. Villanova UNDER 141 | 62-90 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Penn has changed their offense this year. They are no longer a guard oriented team. They look to get the ball inside and that takes more time. Villanova has more shot blockers and length on the inside than just about anyone, and that should make it hard on Penn's offense. The Wildcats are excellent on defense, and they prefer to play at a slow pace if they can. Villanova played some really high scoring games against teams in the top 20 in tempo early this season. Penn isn't going to want to run here, and I think the tempo stays slow. This is one where the spread is big and it reduces the risk of a foul fest late. Take the under. |
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11-29-17 | George Mason v. James Madison UNDER 141 | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* James Madison ranked in the bottom 30 in the country in pace of play last year. They should end up near the bottom in tempo again this year. George Mason lost their top two scoring options from last year. Marquis Moore was the guy that everything ran through, and without him I expect their offensive efficiency numbers to dip significantly this year. George Mason is playing significantly slower than last year, and that makes sense with less scoring options. George Mason has only played one game that has gone above this total in regulation this year. James Madison has played a couple very fast paced teams and that has skewed this total. Take the under. |
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11-28-17 | Illinois v. Wake Forest UNDER 161.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star College Hoops Red HOT CASH* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played significantly slower so far this year. Wake Forest has shot the ball at a very high percentage, but they haven't played against any good defenses. Illinois looks to push the tempo under Brad Underwood, but I don't think they'll be all that efficient on offense when playing against decent opponents this year. Illinois hasn't played anyone ranked in the top 120 in the country in defensive efficiency. Most of the teams they have played have ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in defensive efficiency. Illinois has played only one game this year that has gone over this total and that was 165 points against Marshall. Marshall ranks in the top five in the country in tempo. Wake Forest has only played one game that has gone over this total as well, and that was their first game of the season. This should be a relatively high scoring game, but this number has gotten awfully high. I'll take the under at this level. Take the under. |
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11-27-17 | Oakland v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | 93-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off two miserable shooting performances. They were playing at Syracuse and at Kansas in those two games. This is a massive step down in class. Oral Roberts made only 13/41 two pointers in their last game. They shot 33% from the floor overall in a loss to Penn State. When two teams are coming off extremely low shooting percentage, I like to look for overs in the next game. Why? The market usually overreacts. This total has already been pushed down a few points in the market. Oakland is playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. Oral Roberts slows the game down a bit, but they are terrible on the defensive glass and Oakland should get second chance and transition opportunities here. Oakland should be good on offense overall this year, and this is a pretty low number for a game they are involved in. Neither defense is very good. The over is 8-1 in Oral Roberts' last 9 home games. Take the over here. |
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11-24-17 | Canisius v. Texas State UNDER 140.5 | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas State Bobcats are one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year. This year won't be any different. Danny Kaspar's teams often don't have a ton of speed and athleticism, so they utilize a game plan that reduces the amount of possessions and forces their opponent into a style they aren't typically playing. Canisius generally plays to the pace of their opponent. They play a lot of teams who like to run, so their tempo looks faster than it would in a different conference. They aren't playing a team who runs here. This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. Take the under. |
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11-24-17 | Northeastern v. Utah State UNDER 139.5 | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* Northeastern lost their top two scorers from last year's team. The Huskies always play at a slower than average tempo, and so far this year they are playing even slower than normal. In some years, they have been efficient on offense, but this year they are really struggling shooting the ball. Utah State is happy to play at a slow pace as well. The Aggies aren't a team that looks for transition opportunities very often at all. This a neutral site game where both teams aren't accustomed to the gym. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. Take the under. |
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11-24-17 | Jackson State v. Maryland-Eastern Shore UNDER 139.5 | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* There are 351 teams in Division One College basketball. These two teams are ranked 349th and 350th in terms of amount of time they use up of the shot clock. Basically, these are two teams who want to use up the clock as much as possible. When they get together, the tempo should stay very slow. This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. Take the under. |
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11-22-17 | Eastern Kentucky v. Eastern Washington UNDER 151.5 | 62-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles have only played one game this year that has gone over this total. That was against UNLV. UNLV is playing extremely fast this year. Eastern Kentucky has had 3 games against Division I opponents, and 2 of the 3 were under this number. This game is being played on a neutral floor. Neutral floor unders are 56.5% when the number is 135.5 or higher in the first month of the season. These are unique shooting backdrops and that usually lowers the shooting numbers a bit. Neither of these teams have been pushing the tempo this year. This number is several points high. Take the under. |
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11-21-17 | Evansville v. Fresno State UNDER 142.5 | 59-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have consistently slowed the pace of the game down. Evansville hasn't played a game this year that went above 140. The Purple Aces have played their last three games to a final total of 123, 116, and 127. Fresno State has shot the ball really well in their first couple games. Fresno State has consistently been a team that struggles shooting the ball in the past couple years. The Bulldogs are likely to regress to the mean on offense again this year. This game is played on a neutral floor. The under is 56.5% in the past ten years on a neutral floor when the total is 135.5 or higher. I think the defenses play well here. Take the under. |
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11-20-17 | Baylor v. Wisconsin UNDER 140.5 | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Two teams known for playing slowly and controlling the basketball meet on Monday night. Wisconsin has less good offensive options than they have had in recent years. The Badgers will defend well though, and they do a nice job of defending without fouling. The Baylor Bears are always near the top of the charts in shot blocking. They make everyone work hard for their baskets in the paint. Baylor typically relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but Wisconsin is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. This total has been pushed up from its opening number, and I see that as a mistake. Take the under. |
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11-20-17 | Cleveland State v. East Carolina UNDER 145 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really bad shooting team in recent years. They don't play very fast either. Cleveland State is clearly better on the defensive end than they are on offense right now. This Cleveland State team scored only 38 points against Rutgers. They scored only 57 points against Akron in a game with 82 possessions! The move upward on this total doesn't make any sense to me. Until these teams prove it consistently to me, I'm going to see them as teams that have to make the game ugly to win on a regular basis. Take the under. |
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11-20-17 | South Dakota State v. Wyoming UNDER 166.5 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* This is a neutral court game and those are much more favorable to the under in the early season. In fact, neutral court unders with a total of 135.5 or higher are 56.5% in the last ten years. Wyoming plays very quickly, but they aren't all that efficient on offense. The Cowboys are good on defense and they have multiple shot blockers. South Dakota State plays at a fairly average pace. They are good offensively, but Wyoming is much better than most defenses they play against. It isn't common to see a posted total set this high without both teams being excellent on offense and both teams running. Take the under here. |
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11-17-17 | Elon v. Florida International UNDER 141.5 | 95-87 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Early season games played on a neutral court have cashed at almost 57% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 135.5 or higher. This is a neutral court, and it is the first time either of these teams have played in this gym. Elon's Coach Matheny talked in the preseason about wanting to slow things down a bit this year from their tempo in the past. They have a perfect opponent to slow it down against here. FIU is a very slow paced team that has played to a bunch of low scoring games in the last couple years since Anthony Evans took over. I think this number should be 136.5, so we're getting 5 points of value here. Take the under. |
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11-17-17 | Quinnipiac v. Colorado UNDER 150 | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac has a new coach this year in Baker Dunleavy and he has talked in depth in the offseason about concerns on the offensive end. The team has shot the ball well through two games, but that was against Dartmouth and Brown. They step up in competition in a big way here. Colorado has a lot of length and athleticism, and they should be a solid defensive team this year. Colorado is a big favorite here and long term unders have been the way to go with a big spread like this. On a neutral floor, the under has the edge because of the unique shooting backdrops for both teams. This is a place neither team has played. Take the under here. |
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11-16-17 | Providence v. Washington UNDER 151 | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies won't play as fast this year under Coach Mike Hopkins as they did under Lorenzo Romar. Hopkins has this team playing the Syracuse zone he learned under Jim Boeheim, and that typically limits the possessions in a game. Washington has been getting to the line at an extremely high rate through two games and that's where their offense has come from. They should get to the line less against a Providence team that has been good at defending without fouling under Ed Cooley. Cooley's Providence teams have typically been better on defense than offense. He mixes up the defenses very well. This game is at Madison Square Garden. The under is a very good bet in college games at Madison Square Garden because of the sight lines being so difficult. In the last 45 college hoops games at MSG as a true neutral court has seen 31 games stay under the total and 14 go over the total. Take the under here. |
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11-16-17 | Ohio v. Clemson UNDER 146.5 | 76-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without three key players for this game. Jason Carter is their best big man and they'll certainly miss him a lot here. Carter is a good offensive rebounder and a decent scorer. Clemson no longer has Jarron Blossomgame, and he was the heart and soul of the offense at Clemson. The Tigers won't be as good on offense this year. What did Brad Brownell have as his focal point during the offseason? Defense. He was disappointed in the team's defense last year. Clemson has routinely been a great defensive team under his helm, but they weren't very good there this year. The team took a trip overseas in the offseason, and Brownell believes the team is set to be much better on defense this year. This is a neutral site game. In the past ten years, neutral site games with a total of 135.5 or higher in the first eight games of the year have gone 57% under the total. That's a huge sample size. Take the under. |
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11-14-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State OVER 153 | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* San Diego State is playing a whole new brand of basketball under Brian Dutcher. A San Diego State beat writer said Dutcher gave the Aztecs a choice in practices leading up to the season either push the ball in full court drills or get on the line and run sprints: either way they were going to run. Off missed shots Dutcher doesn't want the team running set plays, rather he wants them looking to score in transition. Arizona State is one of the faster paced teams in the Pac 12, and the Sun Devils are likely to be happy to play fast in this one. They have a great backcourt and they have speed all over the court. San Diego State no longer has an athletic shot blocker in the paint like they have had in recent years. Defense has been a struggle for Arizona State in recent years. Take the over. |
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11-14-17 | Nebraska-Omaha v. New Mexico OVER 160 | 71-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos are playing a very unique style this year. New Mexico is going with the run and stun. Paul Weir is their new coach, and he saw that the team didn't have enough size this year and decided the team would press and run at an extreme level. Yes, they only played Northern New Mexico in their first game. Still, putting up 147 points (a record) and playing the game to a pace of 100 (blistering fast) shows the way this team will play. Weir said, "I mean, the reality is we are a little undersized. The reality is we lack one or two McDonalds All-Americans on our team. What we have is our depth. What we have is our teamwork. What we have is our elevation. What we have is our speed, our shooting ability." They will run like crazy this year. Nebraska Omaha has finished among the top nine in the country in tempo in each of the last five seasons. That's really impressive when you consider there are 351 teams. Omaha plays very quickly. They aren't likely to slow the game down at all here. A really fast pace leads to value on the over here. Take the over. |
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11-13-17 | Wyoming v. Oregon State OVER 153 | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers are going to be a much different team this year than last. Typically, you see value on a team's games in some way when there is a major stylistic change from one year to the next. I think that means Oregon State overs will have value for a bit here. Oregon State was walking it up and stalling as much as possible, but that's because they were shorthanded due to injury. Tres Tinkle is the team's best player and he was injured. Now, Tinkle is back and he'll be one of the best players in the Pac 12. Ethan Thompson is running the show as a freshman in the backcourt for Oregon State and his speed is a major weapon. Oregon State will play much faster and score a lot more points this season. Wyoming ranked 15th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams last year. The Cowboys definitely want to run. Look for Wyoming to try to get transition buckets here and Oregon State will play to their style as they change things up this year. I think the oddsmakers are a bit slow in adjusting here. Take the over. |