*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and UCF Knights are both playing significantly faster this season. 

Tulsa's average possession length last year was 17.9 seconds. This year it is 16.6 seconds. UCF's average possession length in AAC play last year was 19.5 seconds. It is 16.8 seconds so far this year. 

UCF ranked 281st in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 49th in that number this year. The Knights ranked 8th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 50th this year. 

UCF ranks first in the nation in free throws attempted/field goal attempts. Tulsa ranks 6th in this statistic. Both of these teams have been making a living at the line. The AAC referees have had a very quick whistle so far this season. 

I see these teams as different than last year, and I think there is value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oregon is still a team that wants to slow things down. The Ducks have played arguably the two fastest teams in the Pac 12 in UCLA and USC in their last two games, and their higher scoring games in those contests have given the under more value here.

Arizona ranks 205th in the nation in tempo. Despite playing the 34th toughest slate of offenses according to KenPom, the Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oregon will move slowly and they aren't likely to get many second chances on offense.

The Arizona offense ranks in the 75th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses according to Synergy Sports. They rank in only the 42nd percentile against zone defenses. They'll see a lot of zone from Oregon here. 

Both teams rank in the top 12% of teams in the country in transition defense, so there aren't likely to be many easy scoring chances in transition.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely play overs this high, but I feel it is warranted here. Eastern Kentucky ranks second in the nation in tempo. The Colonels are averaging slightly more than 80 possessions per game. They face a UT Martin team here who ranks 55th in the nation in tempo. Their new coach wants them pushing the pace as well, so I wouldn't expect them to stall things out here.

The floor is very high for scoring in Eastern Kentucky games. The lowest total in any of their last seven games was 163 points. They had a 182 point game and a 202 point game in that time span. 

What about UT Martin. They haven't played anyone who goes even close to as fast as Eastern Kentucky, but they have managed to give up 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. UT Martin ranks 336th in defensive efficiency despite playing 227th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Eastern Kentucky has faced the 70th toughest list of defenses, so I believe their offense is a bit undervalued.

A strength for the UT Martin offense is offensive rebounds and that is a weakness for Eastern Kentucky. 

The spread here sits at six, which is a fouling margin and that could certainly push this over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles are a totally different team than they were last year or the year before. Georgia Southern ranked 155th in tempo two years ago. They ranked 134th in tempo last year. They rank sixth in the nation in tempo this year. They are shooting the ball almost 3 seconds quicker on an average possession now than they did last year in Sun Belt action. 

Troy has gotten worse on defense. The Trojans rank 296th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Trojans are slightly better on offense this year. 

The strength of both of these offenses is being efficient in transition, and that should lead to a bunch of points here. 

These two teams have a history of high scoring games against each other- and that was before Georgia Southern's move to a much faster tempo. In the last five meetings between these two, there hasn't been a single matchup that finished short of 159 points. With the faster pace, I like the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Owls rank dead last in Ken Pomeroy's effective field goal percentage. That's out of 353 teams. This offense is shooting a miserable 37.7% on two point field goals. Kennesaw State has been held to 53 points or less seven times this year.

Liberty plays at the single slowest pace of any team Kennesaw State has played so far this year. The Flames are good on offense, and they are likely to be pretty efficient here. Liberty is projected to coast to a win though, and they have shown they will grind the pace down to a halt with a big lead. Liberty is using nearly 22 seconds of the shot clock on average in their Atlantic Sun games (they have won each by at least 16 points). 

Kennesaw State typically plays pretty slowly as well, so I expect a very slow tempo here and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Loyola Chicago's defense has been great throughout the course of the season, and they are even better defensively on their home floor. The Ramblers control tempo with the best of them, and Valparaiso isn't wanting to speed things up either. Valpo ranks 293rd in tempo out of 353 in country. Loyola ranks 320th. 

Loyola is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 7th in the nation in defending without fouling. There aren't many easy points against this Ramblers defense. They have given up 49 points or less in four of their last seven contests overall.

Valpo is great at defending without fouling as well. The Crusaders have seen 4 of their last 5 games against Division I teams finish with 126 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last time these two teams met Virginia Tech won at Virginia by a count of 61-60 in overtime. That game was played to a pace of 61 possessions even with an overtime, so the tempo was extremely slow. 

Virginia Tech is playing much differently this year. The Hokies used up 16.1 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 18.1 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. The Hokies have slowed down dramatically. They are using 19.0 seconds of the clock in ACC play.

Virginia ranks 353rd out of 353 in the country in tempo. The Cavs are using 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average in ACC play. They are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia has held 10 of their 15 opponents this year to 52 points or fewer. 

Virginia Tech has improved in a big way on defense. The Hokies ranked 156th in defensive efficiency two years ago. They ranked 70th last year. They rank 19th so far this year. 

Here's an under system for Virginia- When the total is 117 points or higher and they are either underdogs or favored by 11 points or less... the under is a whopping 40-12 (77%) since 2010. The system is 11-1 in the last 12 as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. Eastern Michigan uses the Syracuse matchup zone to slow down the game. The Eagles have given a lot of teams in the MAC trouble with this zone defense. Last year, Akron scored only 49 and 58 points in their two games against Eastern Michigan. 

The Akron Zips defense was questionable last year, but they are very good on defense this season. Akron was 300th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 50th this year.

Both games between these two last year stayed easily under this total, and Akron is playing much higher quality defense now.

Akron ranks 309th in tempo as well, so they aren't likely to be pushing the pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines host the Northwestern Wildcats today. These two already played in Evanston this year with the Wolverines escaping with a 62-60 win.

Northwestern ranks 291st in the nation in tempo. Michigan ranks 323rd in the nation in tempo. The pace of this game will be slow. In fact, the last three times these teams have played none of the games have paced to any higher than 61 possessions (very slow). The final totals of these 3 games have been 105 points, 113 points, and 122 points.

There has been a move up on this total, and with the move up I have too much value to pass up the under. Northwestern is worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. The Wildcats are averaging only 0.928 points per possession inside the Big Ten. Michigan is slightly less efficient on offense than they were a year ago, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A major clash of styles here. FIU ranks first in the nation in tempo. Old Dominion ranks among the 20 slowest in the nation. Why do I like the under here?

Neither team is efficient at all on offense. Old Dominion ranks 240th in effective field goal percentage on the year, and FIU ranks 241st. 

FIU gets out in transition all the time, but according to Synergy Sports, Old Dominion ranks among the top 5% of teams in the country at defending in transition. FIU isn't likely to get some of the easy looks that they normally do in transition.

Old Dominion is coming off their worst defensive game of the year on Thursday, and I fully expect them to be much better prepared on defense here. Old Dominion has consistently been able to slow games down against Marshall and make them low scoring, so they have proven capable of forcing a very fast opponent to play their game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Monmouth and Manhattan are down this year compared to what they have been in recent seasons.

Monmouth has always liked to push the tempo in recent seasons, but they were playing very slowly in the non-conference slate. They aren't a very deep team, and they were outclassed by many of their much stronger foes. I was watching closely for signs of tempo changes in their first couple games in the MAAC. Monmouth decided to start playing faster again in those games. 

Manhattan is averaging 0.89 points per possession on the year, but in MAAC play they are at 1.09 points per possession. The Jaspers youngsters have started shooting the ball better of late. 

Both of these teams foul like crazy. Manhattan ranks 347th in fouling rate (out of 353) and Monmouth isn't much better at 341st. Expect a ton of free throws in this one.

With a total set this low, I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are a really inefficient offense. Ohio ranks 292nd in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. Ohio is turning the ball over on a whopping 22.4% of their offensive possessions. Ohio is shooting only 29.8% from 3 point range on the year.

Ohio is playing much slower this year than they have in the past. In their first two MAC games they are using 19.8 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is more than 3 seconds per trip more than they did last year. That's a pretty dramatic shift. 

Ball State likes to get out in transition, but the strength of the Ohio defense this year has been transition defense. The Bobcats are also good at limiting the opposition to one shot.

Last year when both teams were playing at a fast tempo, these teams got to 143 points. While Ball State has played quickly on the whole this year, their last two games they have played noticeably slower inside the conference.

This total has been pushed up too far for me to pass on it.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the Week* The UCLA Bruins are playing significantly faster under Murray Bartow than they were under Steve Alford. He has the team pushing at all opportunities, and they are using the full court press far more often. UCLA's biggest strength is their athleticism and speed all over the floor, so this makes sense to me.

UCLA played their last game against Cal to a ridiculously fast pace of 88 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll see any college basketball game. The Bruins won't be able to force Oregon to go that fast, but this one should be a quick paced game.

Oregon likes to play the zone, but according to Synergy Sports UCLA is much better against the zone than man defense. 

UCLA has played 15 games this year. Only 2 of those games have stayed under this total. They are playing faster now than they were earlier this year.

Oregon has attempted to play slower of late, but Oregon State pushed them to a 74 possession game and UCLA will be pushing hard all the way here. Oregon still has some solid scorers, and this UCLA defense is only average.

Unless the shooting numbers are abnormally low, I think this one gets comfortably over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 304th in average time of possession used on offense (time before they take a shot) in the country. That makes them among the 50 slowest teams in the nation.

Southern Miss ranks 264th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. The Golden Eagles almost never get to the line or get offensive rebounds, and that hurts their scoring ability a lot. 

MTSU plays at an average tempo, but the Blue Raiders are awful on offense. MTSU ranks 343rd out of 353 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. MTSU ranks 351st in the nation in turnover percentage. Southern Miss turns people over at a high rate.

I expect a slow tempo and a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights aren't quite as bad on offense this year as they were a year ago, but they aren't good. They rank 294th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rutgers averages less than one point per possession on the year, and they are at only 0.975 points per possession in the Big Ten thus far.

Ohio State is a solid offense at 33rd in offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes are even better on defense though. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes prefer to slow the game down, and Rutgers is most comfortable at this pace as well.

In their two games against each other last year the final totals were 131 and 114 points. 

Rutgers has seen 5 of their last 10 games stay at 125 points or lower in regulation. Ohio State gave up 86 points against Michigan State last game, and I think that has a lot to do with why the line moved up here, but Rutgers isn't Michigan State.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers play at an extremely slow tempo. Towson ranks 345th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson also ranks 296th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have scored 61 points or less in three of their last four games. 

Cornell has slowed their pace down significantly this year. The Big Red are 225th in overall tempo this year. They were 117th last season. Cornell is 217th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. 

We have two teams who prefer to slow the game down and are inefficient on offense. Cornell has seen only 3 of their last 8 games go over this total. Towson has seen 6 of their last 7 games go under the total.

There has been a line move up of 3 points, and that's enough for me to take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two elite defenses in this one. Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech ranks 96th in offensive efficiency and Oklahoma ranks 71st in offensive efficiency.

Oklahoma is playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are using about two seconds more of the shot clock on an average possession than they did a year ago. The Sooners have had 133 and 138 games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech is much better on defense than those two and they play slower as well.

The Red Raiders have had 7 straight games stay under this total, and most haven't even been close to this number. 

Look for a very hard fought game where open shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons offense has been very efficient of late, but a closer look at who they have played against and it shouldn't be any surprise. They have been facing off against some terrible defenses. Bowling Green has played ten straight games games against a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points per possession) of 232nd or worse (out of 353 teams in the country) according to KenPom. 

That run stops here though since Ohio ranks 78th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bobcats are excellent at holding teams to one shot, and they have a good shot blocker in Doug Taylor. 

Ohio has pushed the tempo in past seasons, but they have slowed down in recent weeks. Never was that more evident than when they used 20.1 seconds on average of the 30 second shot clock in their last game against NIU. 

Bowling Green has been better on defense than offense in the last couple years, and I think their shooting numbers will cool off over time. The Falcons guard inside the arc very well, and Ohio struggles from 3 point range. 

Both teams are great on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs just lost their best offensive player to a season-ending injury. Nick Norton had transferred over from UAB and done a brilliant job for this team. Norton had an assist rate ranking in the top 25 in the country according to KenPom. Norton was also shooting 38% from long range and 92% from the free throw line. Drake's offense was without him part of the game against Evansville, and they were extremely inefficient in that one. 

Loyola Chicago has the best defense in the conference, and it isn't even close. The Ramblers rank 13th best in the nation in points per possession allowed according to KenPom. Loyola is much less efficient on offense this year, since they lost three key scorers from last year's team.

Loyola is great at controlling the tempo. The Ramblers defense has been out of this world good in their last few games. Loyola has allowed 55 points or less in their last five straight games. That includes games against Maryland and St. Joe's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers experimented with playing quicker in the last two seasons, but they are back to playing very slowly this year. Towson ranks 344th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson was 188th last year. 

Towson was 144th in effective field goal percentage last year. They are 268th this season. Their defense ranks about the same as a year ago. Towson is clearly more of an under team than they were last year.

College of Charleston prefers a slow tempo as well. Charleston is arguably the best team in the conference, and they are very solid defensively. Charleston excels at defending without fouling, and Towson relies on getting to the line on offense.

I expect a slow tempo here, and I think this number should be in the 128-129 range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I waited for this one to get bet up, and at this number I have to take the under. Kansas State is playing without Dean Wade and that weakens their offense significantly. Texas has been very inefficient on offense all year.

These are two of the top ten teams in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Both teams prefer a slow pace and neither team commits many fouls. Last year, these teams played a 58-48 contest.

Look for strong defense and two offenses who can't get many good looks. Texas is 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Kansas State is 242nd. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I took the under the last time these two met and it cashed in a 66-54 win by Oregon at home. This is a rare non-conference rematch only two weeks later. Bol Bol will miss this game on Saturday once again for Oregon, and this team is clearly not the same without him.

Oregon has averaged only 61.33 points in their three games without Bol Bol. That is despite one of those games being against lowly Florida A&M. The Ducks have slowed their tempo down drastically of late. Oregon has played to a pace of 63 possessions or less in four of their last five games.

Oregon's defense has been tremendous this year. The Ducks have allowed 65 points or less in six straight games. They mix up their defenses well.

Boise State ranks in the bottom 100 in the country in tempo. The Broncos also do a great job limiting second chance opportunities. 

Neither team has any great scoring options with Bol out of the lineup for Oregon.

Another slow paced game and barring some high shooting numbers, I think it stays under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are extremely well-coached by Chris Jans. Jans is a former assistant of Gregg Marshall's from Wichita State. He is a defense first guy, and you see that in the New Mexico State statistics for the season. 

New Mexico State is 62nd in the country in points per possession allowed.  They nearly won at Kansas, and only allowed 63 points in that game. They also held a high scoring Washington State team to 63 points. 

New Mexico State is excellent at dictating tempo. The Aggies are 319th in overall tempo so far this year (out of 353 teams). 

Drake hasn't played many defenses as good as New Mexico State. Drake is a young team that should be inconsistent on offense this year.

This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under. Neither team is accustomed to the setting and the sight lines.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Without Dean Wade, this Kansas State offense isn't the same. Wade was easily the team's highest rated offensive player before he went down with an injury. Bruce Weber's team is likely to slow the pace down and win with their defense as they play without their star.

Vanderbilt is much better on defense this year, but their offense isn't nearly as strong without Garland their star guard. The Commodores shouldn't be as efficient on offense against this Kansas State 2nd ranked defense in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been pushing the pace to the extreme of late. I would expect nothing less here. Tenn Martin has one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 341st out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State is playing a new style under coach Justin Hutson and they push the pace to the finish. I expect Fresno State to get a lot of easy points in transition and also get a lot of put back attempts with Tenn Martin's poor defensive rebounding.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons rank 16th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 24th in points per possession allowed. Stanford is 55th in points per possession allowed. 

San Francisco is a decent 91st in points per possession on offense. Stanford is 185th. 

These are two teams who are quite a bit better on defense than offense. The line has been pushed up some here, and I see value.

Stanford relies on trips to the line to score, but San Francisco ranks 6th in the country at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brown Bears are much better defensively this year. That was a point of emphasis in the offseason, and so far it has worked out nicely for Brown. They are 19th in the country in effective field goal percentage. They have struggled on offense though. They are 223rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Turnovers have been a big problem for the offense.

Marist has had a big change in style with new coach John Dunne taking over. Dunne has been known for his slow paced teams at St. Peter's for many years. Marist has become that very slow paced team that plays solid defense and holds teams to one shot. 

Brown has struggled to score on the road this year. They have scored 60 points or less in 3 of their 5 road games this season. 

Marist should slow the pace down here, and neither team is efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are fantastic offensively, but this is a neutral site game at Madison Square Garden. They are up against a Texas Tech team that is easily first in the nation in points per possession allowed. 

Texas Tech should know not to get into a track meet with Duke. Look for Chris Beard's team to do its very best to turn this into a rock fight. The Red Raiders defense has been tremendous all year. They haven't allowed more than 67 points in a game thus far. They will likely allow more than that here, but I like seeing that type of defensive consistency.

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop and that is a clear bonus here.

In games where Duke is favored by 10 or more on a home or neutral court and the total is 140 or higher, the under is 9-1 in their last 10 games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are great at controlling tempo. They are 337th out of 353 in the country in average possession length on offense. Where is James Madison? They are 307th. There shouldn't be anyone pushing the pace here. 

Fordham has seen 5 of its last 8 games stay under this total in regulation. James Madison has had 4 of its last 5 stay under this number in regulation. 

These teams rank 239th and 289th in points per possession, so they aren't efficient at all. Both defenses have the upper hand and both offenses turn it over a lot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers like to push the pace under Bruce Pearl. Pearl has always been a guy who loves to encourage his teams to get out in transition and look to get some easy buckets. 

Auburn has faced only one team all year in the top 170 in the country in overall tempo. NC State ranks 14th. The Wolfpack aren't going to be afraid to run with Auburn. NC State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their 10 games so far this year. 

NC State's defensive weakness is transition defense. Auburn should know that coming into this game, and the Tigers will be pushing and trying to get to the basket or get to the line. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the country in offensive rebounding. Look for plenty of second chance opportunities. With a lot of offensive rebounds, there are usually a lot of fouls and free throws as well. Both of these teams have a history of getting in foul trouble.

An up and down game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mercer has played 8 Division One opponents this year. There are 353 D1 teams in the country. Six of the eight teams Mercer has played have ranked in the top 150 in terms of tempo. The Bears have definitely been playing a lot of teams who are forcing the pace. Florida ranks 341st in overall tempo.

The Gators have an elite defense. Florida is 6th in the nation in points per possession allowed at 0.906. Florida is great at forcing turnovers and Mercer struggles with turnovers on offense. I expect Mercer to have trouble scoring here.

Florida is very inconsistent on offense. The Gators rank 186th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. How low scoring have Florida's games been? Six of their nine games have finished with 125 points or less.

I like this to be a low scoring contest- and with the number getting bet up across the board, I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers have scored at least 68 points in 10 of their 11 games so far this year. They have scored 73 points or more in 9 of their 11 games. Xavier is first in the country in 2 point field goal percentage at over 60%. 

Missouri is a good defensive team, but they aren't elite. The Tigers rank 144th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri allowed 79 points to Temple and 82 points to Kansas State earlier this year.

Xavier's defense isn't very good. The Musketeers rank 219th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri takes a lot of shots from long range, and Xavier ranks 298th in the country at defending beyond the arc.

This number has been bet down too far for me to pass.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This line has moved too much. Arizona State wants to push the tempo of course, and Vanderbilt is playing quicker as well, but this total has gotten too high for me to pass on the under.

Vanderbilt is without star guard Darius Garland due to an injury, and he is the guy who pushed the pace and made this offense really go. Without him, I don't think Vanderbilt will play as fast, and they are unlikely to be as efficient. 

Vanderbilt is much better defensively than they were last year. The Commodores were 247th in effective field goal percentage allowed last year. They are 42nd in that same statistic this year. 

Arizona State was 18th in the nation in points per possession last year. They are 47th this year. The Sun Devils are still a good offense, but they aren't elite. The Sun Devils were 165th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 50th this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dana Altman has made it a key point to let his team know he wasn't happy with them taking bad shots early in the clock. The last two games they have taken a lot more time on offense, and it has worked out. Oregon is moving the ball more and slowing the tempo down a lot.

Oregon's defense is very underrated. The Ducks have a lot of length and they'll give Boise State's shooters a difficult time here.

Boise State doesn't have the offensive firepower they had a few years ago. The Broncos still work hard defensively.

I had this one pegged a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Virginia Tech has been extremely efficient all year on offense. They are good offensively, but Washington's matchup zone makes it tough for the long range jumpers to fall. On the other side, Washington's offense hasn't been very efficient last year or this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down significantly compared to a couple years ago.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Penn State has played eight straight games that have finished under this total. Most of them have finished far under the number. NC State has been really efficient on offense this year, but Penn State's defensive will make them work hard. The Nittany Lions will work to slow the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks got a message from Dana Altman before their last game. Quit taking bad shots early in the shot clock. They listened. Oregon slowed the tempo down in a big way in their win over Nebraska Omaha. Omaha prefers to play quick, but Oregon slowed that game down to a very slow 60 possession pace. Since that led to a nice win, I would expect them to slow it down again here.

Oregon has only played eight games, but they have played three games against teams in the top 12 in the nation in tempo. 

San Diego wants to play slowly. The Toreros aren't very efficient on offense. They haven't played a team in the top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Where is Oregon? They sit at 15th. The Oregon Ducks throw a lot of different looks at teams on defense, and they should make it hard for San Diego to score here.

Both teams have been great at defending the 3 point line, which is a nice bonus here. I think this stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers are a good offensive team. There is no denying that. Maybe they'll shoot the ball really well and beat this under, but Houston has been great at imposing their will on the opposition this year.

Houston wants to play slowly and they want a grind it out low scoring game. This number has been pushed up since the opening line, and I have to grab it at this price. Houston has played six straight games that all finished at 138 points total or lower. The Cougars rank 351st out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo.

LSU isn't great on defense, but they are a lot better than they were last year. The Tigers are 142nd in effective field goal percentage defense. They were 265th last year. Their freshman class has some very good shot blockers, and LSU is stealing the ball at a much better rate this year. 

LSU has only played one very slow paced team this year (C of Charleston) and that was a very low scoring game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The question about this Murray State team isn't whether they can defend. The Racers play an aggressive style of defense that really contests three-pointers well, and they force a lot of steals. Murray State's question this year is whether they can score enough. Murray State lost two very good offensive players in Stark and Miller. The Racers have looked good on offense so far this year, but who has it been against? Murray State has only played one team in the top 250 (out of 353) in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Southern Illinois  ranks 83rd in that metric. 

Southern Illinois is 279th in pace of play this year. Murray State is 197th. There's no reason to expect a fast-paced game here. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line. 

Southern Illinois relies heavily on the 3 point jumper. The Salukis are shooting 40.3% from deep, but Murray State ranks first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense (20.7%). 

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the ball. Expect a lot of wasted trips on the offensive end due to turnovers, and that is a big plus for the under.

I had this game projected at 130 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Villanova has slowed their tempo down drastically this year. The Wildcats were 150th in tempo last year. So far this year, they are 344th. Villanova doesn't have the veteran ball handlers that they had last season, and Jay Wright has decided to slow things down quite a bit. 

Penn ranks 187th in tempo so far this year. They have played a lot of fairly fast paced games this year, but I believe that is due to who they have played against. The Quakers have only faced one team in the bottom 100 in terms of tempo so far this year. Villanova will easily be the slowest team they have gone against.

Villanova takes a bunch of 3 point shots. The Wildcats aren't nearly as efficient from 3 point range this year as they were a year ago. Villanova is up against a tremendous 3 point defense in Penn here too. The Quakers were 2nd in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense last year. They are 59th so far this year. 

Both teams rank in the top 45 in the country in least fouls committed. Neither offense is particularly good at getting to the line either.

This is a rivalry game and I expect a slow pace and a lot of effort on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A.W. Hamilton said before the season he wanted his Eastern Kentucky team to press and push the tempo to the extreme. He wasn't kidding. Eastern Kentucky ranks third out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. How fast are they playing? They are playing faster than The Citadel or Marshall so far this year. North Carolina is 10th fastest in the nation at 76 possessions per game, but Eastern Kentucky is averaging nearly 4.5 possessions per game more than that. This team is playing extremely quickly.

Eastern Kentucky's full court pressing style has led to a bunch of fouling this year. They rank in the top 25 in most fouls committed. Northern Kentucky excels in getting to the line. Eastern Kentucky has allowed 90 points or more four times in just eight games against Division One opponents this year. 

Northern Kentucky has scored 88 points or more three times this year. Northern Kentucky also ranks in the top 25 in the nation in most fouls committed. 

A very fast paced game with a lot of free throw attempts here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston ranks as the third slowest paced team in the country thus far this year. The Cougars don't have nearly as much offensive firepower with Rob Gray gone. They have gone to slowing the game down and taking care of the ball on offense and leaning on a strong defense, and it has worked very well. 

Houston held a very fast paced BYU team to only 62 points on the road earlier this year. They held Oregon to 61 points as well. 

Oklahoma State has played a lot of teams who want to run so far this year. The Cowboys are up against a very different opponent here. Oklahoma State is relatively quick on offense, but I don't expect them to be all that efficient.

This number has been pushed up to a point where I feel comfortable taking the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have one of the worst offenses in the country. St. Peter's hasn't scored more than 1.00 points per possession since their first game of the year. They have been at 0.96 points per possession or less in all but one of those games. St. Peter's now faces the second best defense they have faced this year (Auburn). In that Auburn game, St. Peter's averaged 0.64 points per possession and finished with 49 points.

Clemson isn't going to push the pace the way several of St. Peter's opponents have so far this year. Clemson has ranked in the bottom 100 in the nation in terms of tempo every single season since 2011. They are going to keep playing slowly this year. St. Peter's is even slower than Clemson, and the Peacocks are much more efficient on defense than offense.

Clemson ranked 7th allowing just 0.926 points per possession last year. They are at 25th so far this year. St. Peter's should find it hard to get anything going against them. 

St. Peter's shouldn't be able to score very much here. I think this total is a few points too high based on the tempo and the efficiency marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are back to playing the way they are most comfortable. Old Dominion is using the clock up, and trying to win low scoring games because of their strong defense. The Monarchs are 18th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense according to KenPom. Old Dominion is 340th in tempo out of 353 teams. 

James Madison isn't much faster. The Dukes rank 295th in tempo. James Madison isn't very efficient on offense, because they turn it over way too much. James Madison crashes the offensive glass, but Old Dominion is tremendous at defensive rebounding. They won't get nearly as many second chance opportunities as normal. 

These two teams have played in each of the last two seasons. The final scores in those games were 69-53 Old Dominion and 62-55 Old Dominion. The Monarchs are the better team again this year. They should control the tempo and their defense should give James Madison a very difficult time again. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played in Belfast, Northern Ireland. This is a large arena that has been made into a basketball arena for these games, and the the under has done extremely well here in the past.

Buffalo plays very quickly, and the Bulls are good on offense. They are also good defensively though. Buffalo relies on a couple things on offense: their ability to shoot from long range, and their ability to get second chance points. San Francisco defense excels at stopping both of those things from happening. They are allowing 24.1% 3 point field goal percentage (6th in the country). They are 1st in the nation in defensive rebounding as well.

San Francisco isn't likely to want this game to be a track meet. I would think the Dons will try to make this a halfcourt game and win with their strong defense. The Dons are a well-coached team, and their defense is the strength of the team.

Neither team gets to the line much, and both are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks and San Francisco Dons meet in Northern Ireland at SSE Arena in Belfast on Friday morning. This isn't typically a basketball arena, and that usually is a good thing for the under. The under is 5-1 in games played at SSE Arena thus far (last year and this year).

How good of a bet has the under been here? None of the 5 games that have stayed under the total at SSE Arena has stayed under the number by less than 5 points. Four of the five have stayed under by at least 11 points. 

Stephen F. Austin has some serious turnover issues. The Lumberjacks have turned it over at the fifth highest rate of any team in college basketball. A whopping 25.5% of their possessions on offense have ended with a turnover. They turned the ball over 24 times against SW Assemblies of God. That is an NAIA school! 

San Francisco plays great defense. The Dons are 33rd out of 351 in defensive efficiency, and Kyle Smith's teams have always been very strong on defense. The Dons are only average paced, and SF Austin has played slowly so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks and the UIC Flames both like to push the tempo. St Joe's is 68th quickest in the country in terms of how quick in the shot clock they shoot it. UIC is 81st in that category. Both of these teams excel from 3 point range, and both defenses are weak against the 3 ball as well.

St. Joe's does a great job taking care of the ball also. The Hawks are first in the country in lowest turnover percentage (out of 353 teams). That certainly helps an over a lot. UIC has improved quite a bit in taking care of the basketball as well.

The spread on this game sits at a margin where it wouldn't be surprising at all for there to be a foul fest late in the game. That can be a big boost in scoring in the last couple minutes.

I see an up and down game the whole way, and this total is low enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels have a history of playing fast and having an efficient offense and a bad defense. Tim Cluess has the same type of team every year. Iona ranks 18th in tempo so far this year out of 353 teams in the country. They will push the pace here.

Ohio ranks 38th in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats have shot the ball terribly so far this year, which has made for some lower numbers in their games. Ohio is shooting 20.4% from 3 point range so far this year. That isn't going to continue. Positive regression is on the way here. Up against a poor Iona defense, I expect Ohio to have a lot of open looks.

The fact that Ohio has shot it so poorly this year has pushed this number down to where it is a good value. It's important to note that Ohio's worst shooting games were on a neutral floor. This game is a home game for them.

Look for an up and down game that is high scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have committed themselves to playing extremely fast and using full court pressure even more this year. Arkansas State is using only 14.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. That is 14th quickest in the country. 

Arkansas State has two major problems on defense that both help scoring. Arkansas State can't grab defensive rebounds, and they do a bunch of fouling. 

UNC Wilmington wants to push the pace as well, and Wilmington has been a team that fouls a bunch the last couple seasons as well. The Seahawks do turn the ball over a lot and I would expect Arkansas State to get plenty of easy looks in transition here.

An up and down game with both teams getting to the line often. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Marshall will push the pace about as well as anyone in the country. Dan D'Antoni's team has great guards who can push the pace and get into the lane and kick it out to open 3 point shooters. 

Marshall was much better defensively last year because of Penava and his shot blocking ability, but he is gone now. I think Marshall will be worse on the interior defensively this year. 

Maryland has tried to run when they can so far this year, but they haven't played any teams who want to run with them. The Terrapins haven't played a team who ranks in the top 170 in the country in tempo so far this season. That all changes here. Marshall ranks 4th in overall tempo.

An up and down game. Maryland should get on the offensive glass here and get a lot of second chance opportunities here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines offense should slip slightly this year without Wagner, but their defense may be even better than last season. The Wolverines are easily first in the nation so far this year in both effective field goal percentage and points allowed per possession (0.868). This is a team that can really clamp down on the opposition.

Michigan is a team that does a great job slowing the game down. Chattanooga wants to play slowly with Lamont Paris as their head coach (a former Bo Ryan associate at Wisconsin). This game should be played very slowly.

Michigan has only had one game all year above 119 points total. Chattanooga is averaging only 54 points per game in their last 3 contests, and that was against S Alabama, Jacksonville, and SE Missouri State. They should have a very hard time scoring here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have decided to pick up the tempo this year. BYU strayed from their normal strategy of running last year, and it wasn't a good fit for the offense. They are back to running again this year. 

Rice is going to push the tempo as much as possible under Scott Pera. In fact, they rank 48th in the nation so far this year in shortest average possession length. BYU ranks 40th in that same statistic. 

BYU has shot a really poor percentage from 3 point range so far this year, but I expect positive regression there. Rice's defense is a clear weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't understand the line move here. For many years both Texas State and Cal Poly have been very slow paced teams. They have both faced some very fast paced opponents in the early going this year, and that has skewed their numbers in the early going. I expect both of these teams to end up being similar to what they have been in past years. Both still have the same coaching staffs.

Cal Poly settles for long range jumpers and very rarely gets to the free throw line. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers, but they turn it over a lot themselves as well.

I capped this one in the low 130's. Of course these teams could shoot a really high percentage and get over this number, but I think the odds are good of this one staying under. I'll fade the early line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total Domination* The Wright State Raiders have played 4 games against Division I teams so far this year. Three of their four opponents have been very fast paced teams who are weak on the defensive end. The final totals in those games were very high and that has contributed to this number being inflated. Wright State scored only 54 against a Murray State defense that is good.

Penn State lost Tony Carr and Shep Garner from last year's team. Those two were the team's best outside shooters. Penn State is lacking in firepower on the offensive end this season. I expect them to continue to play very good defense. So far this year, Penn State is allowing only 0.916 points per possession, which is 11th in the country. 

This game is played at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya and the under is 21-11 in the last 32 games played there. This fits the angles of early neutral site contests being 56% to the under in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are trying to slow the game down. John Groce said that right now they don't have enough athleticism across the board. That is making them try to slow the game down and make it a half court battle. 

Clemson's defense ranked #7 in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. The Tigers have a great defense under the leadership of Brad Brownell. 

Both teams aren't good on the offensive glass, so their should be fewer second chance opportunities than in a normal contest.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Kansas State just played a game against Eastern Kentucky, who is pushing the pace to an extreme this year. That made for a very high scoring game. That game has pushed this number up. Penn isn't going to play that way. The Quakers are far more deliberate. Bruce Weber's Wildcats prefer to play slowly as well. Both of these teams are above average defensively.

Penn has played against a couple very fast paced teams early in the year as well. This is a case of recency bias helping push the total several points higher.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

This total should be in the upper 130's. 

Take the under here. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tacko Fall is an imposing player in the middle of the UCF zone defense. UCF can really force teams to slow things down with their zone pushed out and a shot blocker in the middle of the paint down low. 

Western Kentucky has a very good defensive big men in Bassey now as well. The Hilltoppers should be significantly better on defense this year than they were last season.

In each of the last two seasons, both of these teams ranked in the top 25 in the country in defending without fouling. Both have been good at grabbing defensive boards as well.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers are always going to work really hard on the defensive end for Cuonzo Martin, but this team is limited when it comes to offensive firepower this year. Injuries have hit this team hard already this year. Missouri prefers to play slowly as well.

Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace also. The Beavers don't have many good options outside of Tres Tinkle, and I would expect Missouri's defense to key in on him in this one.

Early season tournament games (first 8 games of the year) played on neutral floors have gone 56% to the under when lined at 134 or higher in the past 10 years. 

This game is played at Virgin Islands Sport Fitness Center- where the under is a whopping 42-21 all time. Many players have talked about this being a tough shooting backdrop.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* I've isolated Weber State as a team to look for value on overs with this year. Coach Randy Rahe said he wants this team to play faster than any of his previous teams. Weber State has listened so far this year. In yesterday's game against San Jose State, they played to a pace of 81 possessions, which is blazing fast.

Central Michigan is always happy to run under Keno Davis. Two years ago they finished fifth in the nation in pace of play. Last year they were in the middle of the pack, but they were much better on the offensive end than on defense.

Both of these teams will want to run, and both of these teams have been good at getting to the free throw line. 

Look for a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has shown us what they are in the early season period this year. They are going to look to slow the game down drastically and keep it close with low possessions and decent defense. They don't have the scoring firepower to keep up with very many teams.

Kennesaw State only scored 41 points against Kansas State. They then scored only 60 points against a terrible Samford defense. 

Missouri still has a lot of issues to work out on offense, but this team will be very good on defense under Coach Cuonzo Martin. Missouri was 16th in the country in effective field goal percentage last year. They prefer to play at a slow pace.

This game is played in the Virgin Islands in a gym with a poor shooting backdrop. This gym has been great to under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Miami are both teams who have wanted to slow the pace down under their current coaches. North Dakota State lost some very good offensive talent from a year ago. Miami's coaching staff has talked about their improved ability to guard at length in the offseason. 

I would expect both of these teams to rank in the bottom 100 (out of 353) in pace of play at the end of the season. With a total this high and on a neutral floor early in the season I like the under value here.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies have the makings of a really good team in the Big Sky Conference this year. Montana has shot blockers at the back of the defense, and they have perimeter defenders who will be all over the ball handlers. 

Incarnate Word is likely to have a lot of trouble scoring this year. They have played 3 teams who aren't Division I this year, and they are averaging 66 points per game in those contests. They scored a miserable 37 points in a loss to Texas Tech as well. They are looking to slow the game down this year.

These early season tournaments on neutral sites have been very good to under bettors. In a sample size of more than 1,800 games, the under sits at 55.5% when the total is 134 points or higher. 

This game starts extra early and is in the Bahamas. A weird spot for youngsters and in the long run this type of thing helps the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nevada always wants to run the floor. The Wolf Pack have athleticism at every spot on the floor and they are going to be tremendous on offense this year. The efficiency of this team on the offensive end should be among the best in the nation.

The key to this wager is BYU and their change in style of play. They decided to try slowing the game down last year and winning with defense. It didn't fit their personnel well. Dave Rose has a new primary assistant coach in Quincy Lewis. He is well-known for his uptempo systems. BYU local beat writers have all sorts of articles in the local newspapers about the change in pace and all the players are saying they are excited to get back to what they use to do (running). 

All kinds of fast pace basketball.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers hired a Virginia assistant coach (Ron Sanchez) to take over their job. Everyone knows Virginia plays extremely slowly, and that's what Charlotte will try to do this year as well. The 49ers have played really fast under previous coach Mark Price. It will be a big adjustment to this offense, and I think they'll be pretty inefficient in this system for a while.

Chattanooga has a coach who previously coached under Bo Ryan. That means he wants to value the ball and slow the game down. The Mocs weren't very good on defense last year, but they have improved shot blockers in the low post this year and I see their defensive numbers improving quite a bit.

A slow tempo for a number this high.

Take the under. 

*3 NCAA BB Championship Game CASH* The Villanova Wildcats shot the lights out on Saturday at the Alamodome. I had the under in that one and lost thanks to their sharpshooting. Kansas' defense was very weak in that game, and the Wildcats buried a bunch of open three-point jumpers. 

Villanova is certainly capable of shooting the ball really well against anyone. This is unquestionably the best offense in the country. Still, this is a neutral court and they are playing against a team that ranks number 3 in KenPomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings. Michigan has the highest ranked defense Villanova has played against all year.

Every number I ran for this one had the total at 141.5 or 142. It's very rare for totals to be higher than my projections in the NCAA Tournament with neutral sites tending to be a fairly big positive for the under. 

This number is higher because of the great shooting from Villanova on Saturday. I'll look to play back on the under after this inflation of the number.

Xavier Simpson is a good defender for Michigan and the Wolverines should be able to put a lot more pressure on the ball and defend the 3 point line a lot better than Kansas. 

The Wolverines are 324th in overall tempo and Villanova is middle of the pack. This game shouldn't be played very fast. 

Both teams do a great job defending without fouling and neither team gets many offensive rebounds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are good offenses. They both clearly have the potential to score a lot of points. This is a huge game though, with the winner set to play for a national title, and this kind of a total is often hard to get to in a game of this magnitude.

Villanova has only allowed one team to score more than 1 point per possession against them in the NCAA Tournament (West Virginia averaged 1.03 points per possession). Jay Wright has said of late that he has been extremely happy with the progress his team has made defensively.

Kansas played their best defensive game of the year last game against Duke. The Jayhawks aren't great on defense, but they are likely better than their numbers on the season would suggest.

Both teams rarely get to the line and both teams rarely foul. If the jump shots aren't falling as much as normal, this one should be lower scoring than expected. This is played in the Alamodome which is a very unique shooters backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas and San Francisco play game three of a series to win the College Basketball Invitational. This is a unique format and this game is for all the marbles.

Early in these smaller postseason tournaments, the over has had great value through the years. That isn't the case late in the tournament though. Why? These teams want to be here now, and they want to win the tournament.

The under is 47-26 in the last 73 games in the semifinals or finals of the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments. 

These two teams both excel at getting defensive rebounds, so second chance opportunities should be hard to come by. They both shoot a lot of 3 pointers, and both defenses are very good against the 3 ball.

This line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Utah/Penn State NIT CASH* The Utah Utes and Penn State Nittany Lions meet on Thursday night in the NIT Finale. 

Penn State's defense ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency in the country. Utah ranks 55th in defensive efficiency for the year, but if you look only at recent games Utah's defense has been much better than that.

Utah's average length of possession puts them 320th out of 351 in tempo, so they are very slow. Penn State is 248th in that same statistic. The tempo should stay slow here, and both defenses will be plenty motivated.

The NIT is played at Madison Square Garden which is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop here, and the numbers prove it.

In the NIT semifinals/finals- totals of 129.5 or higher have gone 26-7 to the under against the closing line.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NIT is a tournament where we've seen a ton of overs through the years, but once you get late in the tournament things change drastically. Earlier in the tournament, many of the teams aren't very interested. Once you get to the semifinals, the teams who are there are plenty motivated to win the whole thing. 

Also of note is the fact that this game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under arena in the country. 

In the NIT Semifinals/Finals- the under is 24-7 in the last 31 games with a total of 130 or higher. 

Madison Square Garden unders are at about 60% in all neutral site games in college basketball in the last ten seasons. 

Penn State and Mississippi State are both teams who are significantly better on defense than offense. Look for this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils have switched to the zone, and it has worked very well. Duke's defense now ranks eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Since they switched to the zone, they have been top five in the country defensively. 

Syracuse ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Orange use that excellent matchup zone to keep opponents uncomfortable. The Orange are also slowing the game down more than ever in the NCAA Tournament. All 3 of their games have paced to 60 possessions. 

Syracuse relies heavily on getting to the line to get some offensive production. Duke is first in the nation when it comes to defending without fouling. 

The under in the Sweet 16 overall since 2005 is 56-46. The under when a team is favored by 7.5 or more is 17-7. Duke is favored big here, and they do a nice job slowing the game down when they have a big lead late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Villanova Wildcats were easily the best offense in the nation this year. Villanova is averaging a whopping 1.276 points per possession on the season. Villanova has a wealth of long range shooters. They have five guys who put up a ton of 3's and all of them shoot 39.1% or better from long range.

West Virginia this year is the best offense Bob Huggins has had since coming to West Virginia. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency. Jevon Carter is a big reason why. Carter shoots 40% from long range and 86% from the line. Daxter Miles has become a nice offensive player as well. 

West Virginia is much weaker on defense this year than they have been the last two years. They are 300th out of 351 teams in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. West Virginia also fouls at one of the 15 highest rates in the country. Villanova shoots 40.2% from long range and 77.4% from the free throw line. Barring a rare off night shooting, Nova should put up quite a few points here.

Villanova's defense has typically been top five in the nation of late, but they are 20th this year. West Virginia should get a lot of second chances against a Nova frontline that doesn't have as much bulk. 

West Virginia will keep using the press to push the pace, and I think this one goes over the number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels have been one of my favorite under teams in the last few seasons. Randy Bennett's team plays the same style of basketball every year. They are a very slow paced team who is extremely efficient on offense and solid on defense. 

St. Mary's ranks 341st out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They will slow this game down. 

Washington has struggled offensively this year. This is a team that shoots a lot of contested jumpers. Washington averages 1.064 points per possession at home. They average only 0.945 points per possession on the road. The Huskies zone defense is unique and St. Mary's has been slightly less efficient against zones than man to man defense this year.

I expect St. Mary's to win this game and the spread suggests a fairly comfortable win. If that is the case, it helps the under. The Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have a lead in the second half.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are very good at controlling the pace of the game. Michigan is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Wolverines are 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. It is their improvement on defense that has made this team so much better this year.

Michigan is elite (top 3 in the country) in transition defense. Houston tries to get points in transition, but those should be a lot harder to come by here than normal. The Cougars typically take advantage of offensive rebounds as well, but Michigan is very good on the defensive boards.

Neither team is very good at getting to the free throw line, and I've noticed that refs have in general had a slower whistle in the NCAA Tournament than in the regular season. 

Both teams like to utilize big men at the top of the key as a passer, but both defenses have athletic big men to matchup with them well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils zone defense has been tremendous. Since they moved to that zone, Duke has been a great under team. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to adjust to their slowing teams down so much better on the defensive end. 

Rhode Island has had major problems shooting it from outside down the stretch. They shot only 35.4% from long range for the year. They shot 32.5% from three point range in A 10 action this year. 

Rhode Island is good when using full court pressure at slowing the game down with zone pressure. Look for them to extend that pressure to try to slow Duke's offense some here. Duke has committed an unexpectedly high number of turnovers on the year. 

Duke doesn't foul on defense. The Blue Devils are 2nd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Rhode Island's pressure should create turnovers here, and Duke's zone should force Rhode Island into a lot of bad looks in halfcourt sets.

This is played at a neutral site. When Duke has been favored by 9 or more and the total is 142 or higher in the last 10 years- the under has cashed at 59%.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Butler Bulldogs square off in what should be a really good game on Friday afternoon. Arkansas always looks to run, while Butler plays at a moderate pace, but these two teams are more similar than you would think.

Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Arkansas is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 100th in defensive efficiency. Butler is 296th in the nation at defending beyond the 3 point line, and Arkansas is shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line on the year. 

Arkansas is great in transition on offense, and they are also poor in transition defense. Butler uses a lot of cutters in their halfcourt sets, and Arkansas has struggled on defense against offenses that use similar plays.

Butler is great at the free throw line at 77%. Arkansas fouls at one of the highest rates in the country. 

Look for the offenses to have the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers have a very good coach in Ron Hunter. Hunter has his team playing an excellent zone defense. According to Synergy, the Georgia State zone ranks among the top 10% of zone defenses played in the country this year.

Cincinnati is second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats contest everything well, and Georgia State isn't going to get a bunch of open looks from 3 point range like they usually get in league play. 

Georgia State isn't likely to speed the game up when they are packing in a zone and trying to make Cincinnati beat them over the top. Cincinnati ranks 322nd overall in tempo in the country. 

Cincinnati and Georgia State have both played some very low scoring games on neutral courts so far this season. Neutral courts and a lot on the line are usually good for unders. Bridgestone Arena hosts this one, and this is probably the best under venue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a tricky shooting backdrop. The under is 36-26 in the last 62 at Bridgestone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars play in an American Athletic Conference where nearly no one is willing to run with them. Houston wants to play quickly, and they'll get the chance here against San Diego State. 

San Diego State Coach Brian Dutcher made it a point of emphasis for the team to play quickly this year. The Aztecs rank 70th in shortest average possession length in the country. They will look to push in this one.

Houston is excellent on the offensive glass, and San Diego State hasn't played many teams who are good on the offensive glass. I expect Houston to create plenty of second chance opportunities.

Both defenses are pretty solid, but their numbers may look a bit better than they actually are because they don't play against many good offenses in their league. 

I think the pace will be there and this line is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gotten much better defensively late in the season. Mark Few expressed concern about their defense midway through the year, and the defense improved in a big way near the end of the year. Gonzaga has plenty of athleticism and length to contest jumpers. 

UNC Greensboro plays a very unique zone press that is designed to slow the game down. They will look to make Gonzaga take a lot of time getting the ball up court, and prevent transition baskets. According to Synergy, UNC Greensboro is the number one ranked transition defense in the country. Since Gonzaga gets a bunch of baskets in transition normally, this should give them some trouble.

This game is played at 11:30 am local time, and that is a help for the under as well, especially on a neutral site.

Look for this one to be a little sloppier than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense is reliant on being able to get to the line. Washington takes a lot of bad jump shots, and if they aren't getting to the free throw line for freebies they can go through scoring droughts. 

Boise State has been very good at defending without fouling this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for them. Washington struggles with defensive rebounding out of the zone, but Boise State hasn't been good at getting offensive boards.

Washington is 152nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 63rd in defensive efficiency. Boise State is 78th in offensive efficiency and Washington is 42nd in defensive efficiency. 

With the line inflated with over money coming in early here, I like the value on the under.

I see these as two teams who are good at making the other team work hard for each shot. I suspect these two will be invested in this game and that is good for defense and the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames host the St Francis PA Red Flash tonight in a CIT contest. Unlike the NIT, there are no rule changes in this tournament so it will just be the normal 3 point shot length and normal foul situations. 

Postseason smaller tournaments have been great to over bettors in the past, and I think this is another spot where the over holds value. UIC plays at the 21st fastest tempo in the country. St Francis PA is 297th on defense when it comes to efficiency, but they are a solid 133rd on the offensive end.

UIC will turn this into a track meet, and they should win as well. St Francis will have to keep playing quick to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels play at the 341st tempo in the country out of 351 teams. St. Mary's isn't likely to be one of those teams who change the way they play in the NIT or a smaller postseason tournament (many teams do play faster). Still, their number has been bet up quickly just like the other games in these tournaments.

The NIT is experimenting with a lot of rule changes this year. One is moving the 3 point line back 20 inches. That in and of itself should help the under a bit especially in a game where both teams shoot a bunch of 3 point shots. The game being played in quarters shouldn't make much of a difference here. Neither of these teams foul very much.

Southeastern Louisiana has had major trouble scoring against good teams this year. They could only score 50 points against Valpo and only 50 points against Notre Dame. SE Louisiana plays at the 298th tempo in the country.

St. Mary's is well known for slowing things down to an extremely slow level once they have a big lead. They should control this game from the beginning.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats and Rhode Island Rams have met twice this year. The first game was 131 points and the second was 124 points. This one is on a neutral site, and Davidson must win this game to get into the NCAA Tournament. If anything, I would expect a slower tempo in this game. 

Davidson has played their first two A 10 Tournament games at only 56 and 58 possessions. They averaged a whopping 1.39 points per possession on Friday and a ridiculous 1.41 points per possession on Saturday.

Rhode Island has given Davidson trouble in the past with their aggressive defense that doesn't allow many looks from three point range. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Davidson shoots the most 3's in the conference, and they are very good at them.

Davidson plays at the 335th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Rhode Island is middle of the pack at 145th. 

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, only one has topped 131 points in regulation. In a game of this importance, I'll side with the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies take on the Eastern Washington Eagles in a battle to decide who gets to the NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky Conference. 

Montana is the best defense in this conference by a large margin. Eastern Washington is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Eastern Washington slows the tempo down almost as much as anyone in the conference. Montana has had some games where they go very slowly as well. I think a game of this importance is likely to play to a slower tempo.

Both teams are playing for the third straight day, and conference tournament finals where both teams are tired have been strong to the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down since I selected it this morning. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 137.5 and 3 star down to 135.5. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two stayed more than 10 points under this posted total. Now, they are playing at Honda Center in Anaheim, which is clearly a big under facility. This is a hockey arena with tough shooting backdrops. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in small arenas. The shooting numbers should be expected to be lower than average.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and this is obviously a very important game for both of them with it being win or go home.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The line drop here has been so big that I have to take the over. These two teams commit more fouls than any other teams in the Big 12. There should be a ton of free throws attempted in this one. Both West Virginia and Texas Tech are excellent on the offensive glass, and both struggle with defensive rebounding. Second chance points should be key here as well.

The Red Raiders defense for the season has been great, but in their last few games it has fallen off badly. They are allowing 0.914 points per possession on the year. In their last five games, they are allowing 1.141 points per possession. 

Both regular season games went over this number, and this isn't an arena that has been strong to the under like some of the other neutral sites. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley and Grand Canyon played twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 124 and 119 points. It was primarily because the game was played at a very slow pace in each of those contests. 

This game means a bunch to both teams. They are one win away for playing for a NCAA Tournament berth. This is on a neutral floor which is a good thing for the under as well.

Grand Canyon is number one in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Utah Valley relies a lot on 3 pointers on the offensive end.

I think this line is several points too high considering the situation and the style these two have played at in the first two contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 255th in tempo as well. This is a team that is good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control and solid defense.

Mississippi State made its first 6 three pointers last night against LSU. That's usually Mississippi State's weakness is long range shooting. It's unlikely they will shoot that well again, especially against a great defense.

The Scottrade Center has been a great under venue through the years. I expect a slow pace and solid defense on both ends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Richmond Spiders defense has been awful down the stretch. Only two of their last ten games have stayed under this total despite them not playing at a very fast pace. 

St. Bonaventure has played at an extremely quick tempo all year. The Bonnies have multiple long range shooters who should get lots of open looks against this Richmond defense.

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 81 possessions. It was 97-88. This one shouldn't be that high, but I think this total is too low. 

Both teams are clearly better on offense than defense and the sharp money here is on the over ( more often than not the sharps like the under). 72% of bets and 99% of money is on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best ranked defense in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a tremendous defensive team.

Hawaii was third in the Big West in the regular season in defensive efficiency. They are great at forcing turnovers, and the biggest weakness of the UC Irvine offense is their problems with turnovers.

The two games during the regular season both finished at 123 points. These are two teams that can go through some long droughts due to subpar shooting numbers. 

Factoring in the venue gives the under more value. The Honda Center is a massive arena built for hockey. In the last 47 neutral site games played at Honda Center the under is 32-15. These Big West teams aren't accustomed to playing in huge arenas. 

I expect the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mississippi State and LSU both need to win a minimum of two games in the SEC Tournament to even have a thought of getting in the NCAA Tournament. These are teams who have proven they can win big games (LSU against Michigan and Mississippi State at Texas A&M). This isn't one of those games where both teams know their season is over and they don't care. 

This one is at Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher. This is the first year for the SEC Tournament at this venue. 

Both of these teams prefer playing at a relatively slow pace, so I don't expect a fast tempo here. They just played to a 66 possession game this past Saturday and it stayed well under this total. This game means a lot more to both teams and the defenses should be engaged here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns played twice in the regular season. The first game played to a total of 125 points and the second was 128 in regulation. These two teams are way better on defense than offense, and both want to play slowly.

Most teams in the Big 12 push the tempo so these teams have some pretty high scoring games overall, but when they play against each other we have a slow paced game with terrific defense. I expect the same thing here today.

This is a played on a neutral floor, and this is a game Texas needs to win. They might make the NCAA Tournament without this one, but they can seal the deal if they win in this one. Important games usually mean more defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and Providence Friars meet at Madison Square Garden on Thursday afternoon. Madison Square Garden has been the best under arena in the country for college basketball for many years. This is a huge arena with tough shooting backdrops. Poor shooting numbers are quite common at MSG.

Providence is right on the bubble. If they win this game, they'll be in the NCAA Tournament. If they lose this game, they'll be sweating in a big way on Sunday. 

Creighton and Providence played twice this year, and one of the two games went under the total. This is the most important game of the three, and it is played at MSG. 

Providence has consistently slowed the tempo in recent games against much faster foes. I'll expect them to do the same thing here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies just played the Alabama Crimson Tide this past Saturday. They will play them again here. In the two games in the regular season between these two teams, the final totals were 136 and 134 points. 

Now, Alabama has a game that they must win to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. Alabama was the best defensive team in the SEC in the regular season. Opponents averaged only 0.99 points per possession against the Crimson Tide. 

If you look at Texas A&M and Alabama on the season as a whole, this is a matchup of two teams who are much better on defense than offense. Alabama is 121st in the land in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is 74th on offense and 12th on defense for the year.

The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher.

With this an early start time and a game that means a lot, I'll take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Texas State Bobcats meet. I've had the under both times these teams met during the season. Both of those games stayed under the posted total comfortably. I think this one will as well.

These two teams both like to play very slowly. Texas State plays at the second slowest pace in the country behind only Virginia. 

Both of these teams have major problems with turnovers on the offensive end. Coastal Carolina ranks 342nd when it comes to taking care of the basketball on offense (out of 351 teams) and Texas State ranks 324th. 

A slow tempo with a bunch of wasted possessions by turnovers definitely lends itself to an under. This one is on a neutral court which is in general a positive for the under.

The four meetings between these two last year and this year have all finished with a combined 113 points or lower (with one staying that low even after OT). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a bunch on the line here. These two teams were the two best teams in the conference on defense, and things should tighten up on offense with so much on the line in this contest. Also expect things to slow down in the tempo a bit here. Both teams are playing for the third straight day. This is a good situation for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston are the two best defensive teams in the CAA and they meet here. Both of them like to slow the game down as well. This is a game that determines who will get to the NCAA Tournament, and both teams are tired after playing a lot in recent days. This is a good under spot and situation with a bunch on the line in this contest.

This one fits a strong system: when both teams are playing in at least their third game in the last four days and the game is on a neutral site the under is 151-99 (60.4%) since 2005.

Take the under.

Rotation #740 Fairfield/Iona under 156.5

*4 Star Play Under* The Albany Times Union Center has been an under gold mine in recent years. I'm not going to buck the trend. Especially with two teams who are worn out and playing for the fourth time in a very short period. This is an extremely high total considering the circumstances. The winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams are capable of scoring a lot, but with this gym and no rest I'm taking the under and expecting some scoring droughts. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is the favorite to win the CAA Championship. C of C wins by playing much better defense than most teams in this league. They also prefer to slow the game down. In fact, they are 327th in the country in tempo. 

William & Mary is one of the best offenses in the country, and they aren't good on defense. They are the reason this total is so high, but for a postseason game at a neutral site this number is too high. These two teams played an extremely high scoring game in the final game of the regular season where there were a ridiculous 67 free throw attempts. That is unlikely to happen again.

The first game in the regular season between these two stayed under this total by a point despite very good shooting percentages.

This is a win or go home game, and with one really good defense involved, a total set this high is too high.

Both teams stayed much lower than their normal scoring total yesterday in their first game at this neutral site.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There hasn't been an under arena in the country than the Times Union Center in recent years. The under is a whopping 30-10 in the last 40 neutral site games played there. The shooting backdrop is a problem at this large venue.

Quinnipiac slows the game down, and I think they'll be able to slow things down significantly against Fairfield here. 

Both of these two teams shoot a bunch of three pointers. That isn't typically a good thing when you are playing in a tough shooting gym like this one. In the league this year, Fairfield made 34.9% of their 3 pointers. Quinnipiac made 33.3% of their 3 pointers.

It wouldn't be a big surprise to see ugly shooting numbers in this arena and with everything on the line. The loser of this game is done for the season.

When the under is 134 or higher and both teams are playing at least their third game in four days- the under is 96-59 in the last 155 contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have been the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference all year. Loyola Chicago slows the game down. The Ramblers rank in the bottom 50 teams in terms of tempo in the country. 

Illinois State plays quicker, but the RedBirds haven't been very efficient on offense in the conference. They are averaging only 1.007 points per possession in MVC play.

The two games in the regular season between these two teams were both 129 points combined. Now, they go to Scottrade Center to play in one of the best under gyms in the country. 

Another strong system here is both teams being tired- when teams are playing at least their third game in four days and the total is 134 or higher- the under is a whopping 96-59 (62%) since 2005.

The MVC is all about defense, and I think this title game comes with strong defense from both teams again.

Take the under.