*3 Star Play Over* I'm not a fan of taking an over on a number this high very often, but here I have to do it. 

Rider and Niagara are pushing the pace to an extreme level this year. While an average game plays to about 69 possessions in college basketball, I think there is a good chance this one plays to a pace of 80 possessions. That's a bunch of extra shot attempts for each team.

Niagara is 324th in defensive efficiency. They haven't been able to stop anyone all year. Rider is 202nd in defensive efficiency. 

Rider is 104th in offensive efficiency and Niagara is 91st. Both offenses are much improved from last year. Rider averaged 1.009 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.071 per possession. Niagara averaged only 1.014 last year and they are up to 1.084 this year.

This should be an all out track meet. The two teams are 16th and 57th in free throws per field goal attempt too, so plenty of free throws should be expected.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are 320th out of 351 teams in the country in average possession length. This is a team that wants to slow the game down on a consistent basis. 

Florida is a team that plays quickly, but their defense is excellent. Florida ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency in the country in the last two seasons. The Gators will be very good defensively again this year.

These teams met three times last year with Vanderbilt upsetting Florida all three times. None of the games went over this posted total. The finals were 144, 134, and 134 in OT (116 in regulation). 

Both offenses have dipped significantly in efficiency compared to last season. I see no reason for this number to be this high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials play at an extremely slow pace. George Washington is 348th out of 351 in overall pace of play this year. The Colonials host St Joe's here. 

St. Joe's is playing quickly this year, but they have played a bunch of opponents who run so far this year. This is a whole different ballgame. Last year, they played to a 68-63 game against George Washington and the tempo was only 61 possessions.

St. Joe's played to a 71-58 game at a pace of 60 possessions against Princeton this year. Princeton plays slightly quicker than George Washington, and I see that game as an example of a team being able to slow down St. Joe's.

This total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix and Drexel Dragons have changed a lot since a year ago. Elon's Matt Matheny decided to slow his offense down this year. Just two years ago, Elon ranked 49th in tempo in the country. They now rank 282nd out of 351 teams.

Elon is also a good under team because they are first in the nation in least fouls committed. On offense they rank 336th at getting to the line. 

Drexel was 101st in average possession length (playing quickly) last year. The Dragons are 252nd this year. A huge pace change for Drexel as well.

Drexel is giving up only 1.03 points per possession this year compared to 1.10 points per possession last year. The Dragons are moving slower and playing much better defense.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. Combine that with a defense that ranks first in the nation in efficiency, and you have some very low scoring games.

Virginia recently played Savannah State. Savannah State ranks first in the nation in tempo. The final total in that game was an astonishingly low 125 points. Virginia is great at controlling the flow of the game. 

Boston College plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Eagles are much better at defense now than they were last year and the year before.

The last three meetings between these teams have finished with 117, 108, and 125 points. This total is higher than any of those were posted at as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I rarely take overs at numbers this high, but I feel the need to take the over here in what I believe will be a shoot out. 

Iona has historically been a team that plays very quickly. Tim Cluess coached teams push the pace and can score efficiently. They also play very little defense. Iona's tempo numbers are a bit slower so far this year, but they have faced a bunch of teams who like to play slowly. 

Iona hasn't played a team in the top 45 in the country in offensive tempo. Niagara ranks 19th there, so this is easily the fastest team they have played against. The fastest team they have played to this point was Ohio, and their contest against them finished 93-88.

Niagara combines their extremely fast pace with an efficient offense and a defense that ranks among the bottom 25 in the country in efficiency rankings. The Purple Eagles have had an amazing 8 of their 13 games so far this year finish at 170 points or higher.

Look for back and forth action and a tight high scoring contest. Because of the spread here, overtime is always a possibility as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Toreros are going to win with defense this year. That's the way Lamont Smith wants it to be. San Diego ranks 50th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Toreros rank a very impressive second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

San Francisco is without Charles Minlend due to an injury. He's a guy who really hurt San Diego last year. The Dons aren't as good on offense this year, but they are even better than last year on defense. The Dons are 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

San Francisco is using nearly one second more of the shot clock on average this year, and San Diego always wants to play slowly.

Both offenses rank terribly when it comes to efficiency. San Diego is 221st and San Francisco is 254th.

This projects as a defensive battle between two teams who don't have many good scoring options. These are two teams who clearly are better on the defensive end. 

I had this one lined in the mid 120's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the country in average time of possession. That means they shoot the ball on average the third quickest out of 351 teams in the country. They are really pushing the pace. That will continue with the D'Antoni system at Marshall.

Marshall has scored 83 points or more in 10 of their 13 games this year. The Thundering Herd have scored 91 points or more in 7 of their contests. Marshall is going to push the pace and score a bunch here. If Southern Miss wants to have a chance, they'll have to score quite a few.

Marshall's defense isn't very good, and Southern Miss should be a bit improved this season. The Golden Eagles generally slow the game down, but they have already played in three games against Division One opponents where the tempo was 71 or faster. Marshall will force the tempo here.

Last year, the final was 91-76 when these two met. Two years ago, Marshall won 108-106 at home in OT. 

This total is a few points too low here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Akron Zips and Princeton Tigers play for the second straight day in Hawaii on a neutral court. Neutral courts are definitely a good thing for unders in the long run, and with short rest for both teams I consider it an even stronger under signal.

Princeton excels at controlling the tempo. The Tigers are going to want the pace to be slow here, and they should be able to dictate that tempo. The Tigers ranked 337th in tempo out of 351 teams last year. They rank exactly the same so far this season. 

Akron's average possession length suggests they prefer to play slower as well. 

With a total set this high, it will take much higher than average shooting numbers to get past this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by former Wichita State assistant Chris Jans. Jans is a defensive-minded coach, and his teams tend to play slower than average. 

New Mexico State has a lot of talent, and they are coming off an upset win against Illinois. The Aggies are excellent on the defensive glass. This New Mexico State team is underrated by most.

Davidson isn't the quality team they were a few years ago, but they are a solid team. They no longer run like they did in the past. They are an average paced team. Davidson shoots a ton of 3's, and New Mexico State has traditionally been excellent defending the long range jumper. They were 9th in the country in 3 point defense last year, and they are only allowing 33.3% makes this year so far as well.

This game is played on a neutral floor in Hawaii. Neutral sites are positives for the under. Shooting numbers on the average are lower, and this is a weird game for both teams with their body clocks off with the big time change.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears like to run under Wyking Jones. Cal ranks 82nd in the country (out of 351) in overall tempo. 

Cal's defense isn't good. They have allowed 89 points or more on four occasions this year. Portland State will be the fastest paced team they have played so far this year.

Portland State's Barrett Peery has his team playing an uptempo pressing defense that leads to run outs and lots of drive and kick outs for 3's. Portland State is 4th in the nation in pace of play. This team is absolutely flying.

Portland State has seen 8 of their last 11 games go over this lofty total. The Vikings will push the pace.

Both of these teams are elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the line. 

It all adds up to a very high scoring affair.

The over is 8-0 in Portland State's last 8 following a win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 non-conference games. An 11-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals and UC Irvine Anteaters are both teams who win with defense first. They are also both teams who slow the game down most of the time.

UC Irvine was terrible on defense in their last game, and I expect a better performance from them here. 

Idaho and UC Irvine both have a big turnover problem on offense. A lot of empty possessions typically leads to unders. 

Recently, both of these teams have been playing to a slower pace on offense than they were at the start of the season.

This game is played at a neutral arena, and that is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Indiana's offense was dreadful in their loss to Fort Wayne. Their defense was just as bad. The Hoosiers will look to get back on track against Tennessee Tech here. 

Tennessee Tech pushes the pace to an extreme. The Golden Eagles have gotten into multiple very high scoring games this year. Not only are they very fast paced, but they also play very little defense. 

Both of these teams are good at getting to the line, and there should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe during this contest.

I think Indiana hangs a big number here and Tenn Tech contributes plenty too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the past ten years, games where the home team is favored by 15 points or more and the total is 139.5 or higher have gone under the total 55.1% of the time in the first 3 months of the season. Why? In blowouts there is less chance of a foul fest obviously, and the team ahead generally slows the pace down late. Also, officials are more likely to swallow their whistle.

American finished as the slowest paced team in the country in 2015 and 2016. This is a team that tries to stall as much as possible. Marquette's tempo is right around the average pace in the country. A total of 150 with one team that goes extremely slowly and one team that is medium paced is awfully high.

Marquette is certainly very efficient on offense, so they could score plenty here. They have shown they will slow down against a similar opponent to American earlier this year though. They beat Mount St Mary's 80-59 in the season opener.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix were playing too fast last year. Their coach said in the offseason that they needed to slow things down to have more long-term success. They have slowed things down significantly this season. The oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted. This is one of those cases where it takes a long time for the oddsmakers to adjust a team that is under the radar like Elon.

Canisius is also playing slower this year. Canisius plays against a bunch of teams that like to push the pace, but when they can they prefer to play slowly. Canisius has played eight straight games that have stayed under this total. 

I made this number 138, so I see a significant amount of value in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns are pushing the pace more this year than they have in the last couple seasons. As Shaka Smart has gotten more of his own type of player, they are looking to play quicker.

Texas is no doubt much better on defense than offense. Still, with them pushing the pace on offense, this is an awfully low total. This is the type of total you expect in a Virginia game because of their amazing defense and extremely slow tempo.

Tennessee State isn't going to try to run,but they are likely to get behind and be forced to play quicker to try to come back. 

This isn't one I had expected to be taking, but the extreme low number gives it value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* SMU has ran the score up on some poor teams they have played this year, but their game totals have stayed under this total in 8 of 11 games.

SMU has also shown that they want to slow the tempo of the game even more when they are playing better competition. They slowed the game to a crawl against fast paced USC in a win recently. SMU then ran with TCU and lost. I expect them to control the tempo and play slowly here.

Boise State ranks 22nd in the nation in total defense when ranked by efficiency. The Broncos are number one in defensive rebounding. SMU typically relies on offensive rebounding a lot, and they aren't likely to get as many as normal here. 

Both teams are top 30 in defense, and both offenses are worse than they were last year. A low scoring tighter game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons beat Indiana last season. That was a stunner and one of the bigger upsets of the season. Indiana now hosts Fort Wayne, and they aren't going to take them lightly this time.

Fort Wayne lost quite a bit from last year, and Indiana has played better in recent games. This is a spot where I think Indiana keeps the pedal down more than normal because of the revenge factor from last year. 

Fort Wayne has played 12 games this year and 11 of them have gone over this posted total. They play quickly, and they aren't very good on defense. They are capable of getting red hot from 3 point range.

Indiana has seen six of their 11 games go over this total in regulation as well. The Hoosiers offense has been very efficient of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles have scored at least 87 points in each of their home games this year. They play a Charleston Southern team tonight that is terrible defensively. Charleston Southern allowed 110 points to Davidson in the season opener.

Florida State beat Charleston Southern 88-67 last year, and I see a very similar game this year. Florida State will push the pace in a big way. The Seminoles haven't played a game pacing below 70 possessions all season. 

Florida State has shown they are willing to run the score up, and that will likely be the case again here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions do like to play fast, but they are much better on defense than offense. Penn State ranks 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are actually playing slightly slower on offense than they did a year ago, and their defense is even better than last year.

George Mason ranked 131st in overall pace last year. They are 251st so far this year. Dave Paulsen's teams have typically liked to slow the game down, and this year's team has less offensive firepower. It makes sense that they are going slower this year.

The initial line move up on this game doesn't make sense to me. I have this as a game that stays in the 130's. Both teams turn it over quite a bit, so there should be a lot of empty trips.

Good value on this one.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego Toreros rank 300th in average possession length on offense out of 351 teams in the country. North Texas ranks 315th. These two teams will play a very slow paced game here.

North Texas is 255th in the nation in offensive efficiency. San Diego is 223rd in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

San Diego is 51st in the nation in defense. While North Texas is a poor defense, San Diego has shown that they are happy to slow the game down drastically when they get a lead. They are a big favorite here, and they should have a lead.

San Diego has played 10 games this year, and only one of them has gone over this posted total. North Texas has seen a mixed bag, but I expect San Diego to control the flow of this game.

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pacific Tigers want to play fast under Coach Damon Stoudamire. Here's their chance. UNLV is going to run at every opportunity here. UNLV ranks 6th out of 351 in the nation in average possession length. Marvin Menzies has this talented Runnin' Rebels team pushing tempo at every chance.

Pacific has run with three opponents this year. They played an 89-80 game against Stanford. They played an 89-74 game against Nevada. They played a 86-72 game against Wyoming. 

I expect UNLV to get the lead here and force Pacific to play from behind. 

UNLV and Pacific both rank in the top 30 in the country in free throw attempts per possession this year. Lots of trips to the charity stripe should come in this one.

UNLV has played 8 of their 10 games over this total. I expect another one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks will look to push the tempo whenever they can this season. Oregon isn't the same caliber of team they were last year, and that's largely because they don't have the shot blockers on defense that they had a year ago. 

Fresno State ranked 167th in the country in offensive efficiency last year. They are 57th so far this year. They were 60th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 91st this year on defense.

Fresno State has played a bunch of teams that walk the ball up the floor this year, and the Bulldogs haven't had as many high scoring games as you might expect because of that. When they played two fast teams (Arkansas and Long Beach State), the scores were 83-75 and 106-70. Oregon won't play as fast as those two, but they will play quickly.

I think this game gets into the mid 150's as both offenses have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen are a completely different team this year under first year head coach Matt McCall. McCall has always wanted his teams to slow the game down and win with good defense. Last year, UMass was a team that pushed the tempo to an extreme. That's definitely no longer the case.

Georgia tends to play to the pace of their opponent under Coach Fox. The Bulldogs have an opponent who wants to play slowly here, and that's how I assume they will play in this one. They have a great big man in Yante Maten, and they'll look to play through him here.

UMass ranks 224th in offensive efficiency. The Minutemen have struggled to get good looks, and they often rely on poor shots late in the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is a team I always lean toward the under with. The Badgers can control the pace as well as anyone in the nation. Their offense isn't very good this year either. They rely far too much on Ethan Happ to do everything. They don't have good guard play.

Western Kentucky prefers a slow paced game as well, and the Hilltoppers have had some recent high scoring games against opponents who really like to run, which has given us line value on the under here.

Wisconsin is favored, and they are good at taking the air out of the ball if they have the lead late. This number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks always rank near the very top of the tempo charts at the end of the year in college hoops. Omaha is playing fast again this year. This is a relatively high total, but Omaha has had 159 points or more in 7 of their 11 games so far this year.

What about Arkansas State? They have a first year coach who talked about wanting to push the pace in the preseason. They are pushing it. Arkansas State is 57th out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. 

The tempo here will be very high. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25% of teams in the country in defensive efficiency as well, so there is no reason to expect good defense to be played here. 

Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Two teams that are far better on defense than on offense. They are also two teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Little Rock has played 5 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this number in regulation. Bradley has played 6 of their 8 games against Division One opponents below this total. They haven't played a game all year that finished higher than 140 points. 

Bradley's defense is 41st in the country in adjusted efficiency. Their offense is 267th. Little Rock is a miserable 344th in offensive efficiency. 

With both teams having a big advantage on defense and the tempo of the game staying slow, it will take a rare good shooting effort from these two to send it over. It could happen, but I really like the value here on the under.

I had this lined at 121 points.

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes host the San Diego Toreros tonight. San Diego ranks 301st in the nation in average possession length, which means they really slow the tempo down. San Diego is significantly better on defense than offense. San Diego is 239th in offensive efficiency in the country. They are 65th in defensive efficiency.

Colorado is also slightly better on defense than offense. The Buffaloes have played to the pace of their opponents so far this year. Most of their opponents have been quick paced teams, which has inflated this number a bit.

Both teams turn the ball over at a high rate, which helps the under here as well since neither team is expected to be pressing. Those turnovers in the halfcourt simply waste time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks rank 12th in the nation in pace of play. They are pushing the pace at every chance. Their new head coach learned under Roy Williams, and we all know the Tar Heels constantly push the tempo.

LSU is playing at an average pace, but they are torching the nets on offense. LSU ranks 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are first in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at an amazing 63.1%. UNC Wilmington ranks 340th in points per possession allowed, so they are almost as bad as anyone in the country on defense. 

Of UNC Wilmington's games this year, only one of them hasn't gone over this total. LSU has had totals of 178 and 191 in two of their games so they are fully capable.

Despite playing almost all slow paced opponents, LSU's games are averaging just over 161 points. UNC Wilmington will keep the tempo moving, and that should lead to a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears rank 261st in offensive pace (average possession length) out of 351 teams. Oral Roberts ranks 306th. Both teams want to play slowly.

Missouri State ranks number 24 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Oral Roberts is 313th in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts only managed 60 points in a loss to Southern Nazarene in their last game. This is a bad team that struggles in a big way to score.

Missouri State has shown on multiple occasions that they are happy to slow the game down once they have a lead, and they should be playing from in front here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes and Eastern Washington Eagles both play quickly. South Dakota is 57th in the nation in quickest pace on offense (average possession length). Eastern Washington is 83rd. That is out of 351 teams. There's no reason to expect anything other than a quick tempo for this contest.

The Eastern Washington defense is the worst unit on the floor here, and South Dakota's efficient offense should pick them apart. Eastern Washington fouls at a high rate and South Dakota is excellent from the line. 

Eastern Washington has shown many times this year they will keep the game going with the foul game, and they are likely to be down and could be in that situation here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs decided to start pushing the pace last season, and they have continued that this year. The difference between last year's team and this year's team is this group is much more efficient on offense. It is the team getting accustomed to playing the style.

Rider's defense has dropped off from last year as Jimmie Taylor, their best defensive player from a year ago, graduated at the end of last season. 

Hofstra plays at a middling pace, but the Pride are consistently very efficient on offense and really bad on defense. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in offensive efficiency each of the last four seasons. 

Rider has played 6 of their 9 games this year to a total of 165 points or more. Hofstra's last four games have all been over this number.

Look for both teams to put up a lot here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have perfected Dan D'Antoni's uptempo system. Marshall has a bunch of scoring options, and they are going to put up big numbers all year long. Marshall pushes the pace to an extreme level. They rank 4th in the nation in average possession length on offense. 

Toledo has played faster this season. The Rockets went to Marshall last year and the game finished 111-105 in overtime. Before overtime the teams were knotted at 95. The shooting was exceptional in that game, so I don't expect that number, but with high tempo and two bad defenses I think this should get above the total.  

Toledo has already played two games that easily passed this total. Marshall has seen 6 of their 9 games go over this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Sacramento State Hornets here. Boise State has a huge advantage in this one. Boise State should be able to coast home, and the Broncos have shown a willingness to slow the pace down drastically in the second half of games where they have a big lead.

Sacramento State has played seven games against Division One opponents and their highest total is 143 points. Boise State has only played two of their eight games over this total. 

Neither team plays particularly fast to start with, and Boise State's defense has been excellent. They are giving up the least amount of second chance points of any team in the country. Sacramento State is missing their best player and they'll have a very hard time getting open looks in this one.

I made this number significantly lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are very good. UT Arlington has one loss and it was by a point against a good Alabama team. They won at BYU. 

Northern Iowa has two losses and they are to North Carolina and Villanova. Northern Iowa is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. The Panthers rank 349th in average possession length (time on offense before shooting) out of 351 teams in the country. They aren't going to speed up for anyone.

UT Arlington would prefer to play quickly, but Northern Iowa is going put a zone defense up here to control the pace of the game. Arlington's weakness the last couple years has been their outside shooting. This Northern Iowa defense is likely to give them trouble.

Northern Iowa has played 8 games. Seven of those games have finished with a total of 126 points or less in regulation. UT Arlington's last three games have been below this total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Portland State Vikings have a new coach this year in Barret Peery. Peery said before the season he wanted this team to rank among the fastest paced teams in the country. They are doing it thus far. Portland State is pressing in the full court the entire game, and the Vikings rank in the top 25 in the country in steals forced. They are shooting 40.4% from 3 point range as a team. Portland State is excellent at dictating the pace of the game.

Loyola Marymount ranks 260th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Portland State ranks 241st in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot the ball really well against both of these teams.

Loyola Marymount has played slower paced teams of late and that gives us line value here. Portland State is going to push the pace here in a big way.

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in offensive rebounds. Expect a bunch of second chance points and trips to the charity stripe.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini have picked up the pace quite a bit under Brad Underwood this year. They are trapping and forcing turnovers and looking to score in transition. Against teams that have a high turnover rate, Illinois has really run up the score. Austin Peay ranks in the bottom 50 in the country (351 teams) in turnover rate. 

Illinois ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo, and the Fighting Illini should get the steals and quick scores against this Austin Peay team. 

Both of these teams foul a lot more than the average in college basketball. I see plenty of trips to the line helping this one. 

Illinois has played five Division I teams that are ranked outside the top 100 in the country. The total in those games has been: 157, 151, 155, 165, and 159. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden Gem Total* The Evansville Purple Aces are without star Ryan Taylor right now due to a foot injury. Taylor averaged 14.3 points per game last year, and he was averaging 21 points per game before the injury this season. Evansville is clearly without their leader on offense now, and I expect some bad offensive performances from them.

What is Evansville going to do? They'll slow the pace down as best they can. Even before Taylor was injured, Evansville ranked in the bottom 10 out of 351 teams in the country in pace of play. Expect them to really try to grind this game out.

Bowling Green has played a lot of high scoring games, but this is the first opponent they have played who plays this slowly, and the Evansville defense has been very solid the last couple seasons. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Gonzaga/Villanova CASH* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Villanova Wildcats have been excellent on defense in recent years. 

Villanova has finished in the top 12 in the country in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. Gonzaga has finished in the top 30 in defensive efficiency in each of the last six years. They were number one last year.

There's no reason to expect either defense to give up a lot of easy shots here. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under arena in college basketball. This is a huge arena and the shooting backdrop is difficult. The under has cashed at a better than 60% clip at MSG in college games with a total of 140 or higher in the past ten years. 

Expect a hard fought game with solid defense here. This number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores meet on Sunday. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo. 

Kansas State mixes up defenses, and opponents are taking more time to shoot it against Kansas State than any other team in the country.

Vanderbilt was a very slow paced team last year, and they are that again this season.

The Commodores were more efficient on defense than offense last year, and they are again so far this year. Bruce Weber's teams are consistently better on defense than they are on offense.

This total has moved up from the open, and that gives us value on the under. Look for a tightly played game where the pace stays very slow.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played six games against Division One teams this year. Only one of those has gone over this posted total. That one finished at 142 points. 

Oral Roberts has played 7 Division One teams this year. None of them have ranked in the bottom 100 in tempo. They have played a bunch of fast paced teams. That changes in this one and the line is inflated here. 

Little Rock likes to run the clock and try to win low scoring games. Oral Roberts plays at a slow tempo as well. Both of these teams have been inefficient on offense so far this year. Both have been really sloppy with the basketball.

This total is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Manhattan Jaspers were without best scorer Rich Williams on Friday and he is questionable here. Manhattan hasn't been good on offense with him, and without him they really struggle.

The Jaspers have slowed their tempo down drastically this season. They went from ranking in the top 35% of teams in pace of play to ranking in the bottom 25% of teams this year. 

Towson always prefers a slow pace, and the Tigers are led by a strong defense. 

This game is played in Northern Ireland on a neutral site. This is a positive for the under. Shooting percentages tend to be lower at neutral sites. There is a massive time change which doesn't help either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are without BJ Taylor right now. Taylor is the most important guy to this UCF offense. Without him, they were a complete mess last season, and it appears the same is true this year. UCF has scored 45 and 43 points in their last two games against West Virginia and St. John's. 

UCF will be great on defense again this year with Tacko Fall manning the middle and swatting shots away left and right. 

Missouri will play at a slow pace under Cuonzo Martin. His teams are always halfcourt oriented teams. Missouri has played several teams that want to run a lot this year, but UCF is similar in that they prefer a halfcourt game.

Look for good defense from both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks always play great defense under Frank Martin. Martin's teams play relatively quick on offense, but they aren't very efficient, especially since they lost Thornwell from last year's team. Sindarius Thornwell was the guy everything went through on offense for the Final 4 Gamecocks last year.

Temple has shot the ball really well this year, but this is an excellent defense they will go up against in this one.

Additionally, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is easily the best under arena in basketball. The sight lines are tough here, and college kids have consistently had trouble with shooting in this arena in the long run. Neutral site unders early in the year is a profitable angle, and when it is MSG that is a big bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is an excellent defensive team. They are great at shutting down the opposition and making them take tough shots on the perimeter. 

Western Carolina was 348th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country last year. They are just slightly better this year, and they were held to 57 and 51 points by Clemson and Cincinnati.

C of C is without their best offensive player in Brantley, and that has caused them to slow their tempo even more in recent games. I think they win comfortably here and the defense leads the way.

I'll fade the early line move here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are pushing the pace as much as ever under Coach Simon this year. Southern Utah continues to be awful on defense as well. Southern Utah ranks 347th in defensive efficiency so far this year out of 351 teams in the country. Where were they the last two years? They were 350th and 349th. Awful. Southern Utah has a habit of fouling at an epic rate. They tend to do this when losing in the second half, and there can be some very high scores in the second half in their games.

Pepperdine is one of those teams that tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and in this case that should mean a very quick tempo. Pepperdine is great at getting to the line and they should get a lot of trips there in this one. 

A quick tempo and a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn has changed their offense this year. They are no longer a guard oriented team. They look to get the ball inside and that takes more time. Villanova has more shot blockers and length on the inside than just about anyone, and that should make it hard on Penn's offense.

The Wildcats are excellent on defense, and they prefer to play at a slow pace if they can. Villanova played some really high scoring games against teams in the top 20 in tempo early this season. Penn isn't going to want to run here, and I think the tempo stays slow.

This is one where the spread is big and it reduces the risk of a foul fest late. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* James Madison ranked in the bottom 30 in the country in pace of play last year. They should end up near the bottom in tempo again this year. 

George Mason lost their top two scoring options from last year. Marquis Moore was the guy that everything ran through, and without him I expect their offensive efficiency numbers to dip significantly this year. George Mason is playing significantly slower than last year, and that makes sense with less scoring options.

George Mason has only played one game that has gone above this total in regulation this year. James Madison has played a couple very fast paced teams and that has skewed this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Red HOT CASH* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played significantly slower so far this year. Wake Forest has shot the ball at a very high percentage, but they haven't played against any good defenses.

Illinois looks to push the tempo under Brad Underwood, but I don't think they'll be all that efficient on offense when playing against decent opponents this year. Illinois hasn't played anyone ranked in the top 120 in the country in defensive efficiency. Most of the teams they have played have ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in defensive efficiency.

Illinois has played only one game this year that has gone over this total and that was 165 points against Marshall. Marshall ranks in the top five in the country in tempo. 

Wake Forest has only played one game that has gone over this total as well, and that was their first game of the season.

This should be a relatively high scoring game, but this number has gotten awfully high. I'll take the under at this level.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off two miserable shooting performances. They were playing at Syracuse and at Kansas in those two games. This is a massive step down in class. 

Oral Roberts made only 13/41 two pointers in their last game. They shot 33% from the floor overall in a loss to Penn State. 

When two teams are coming off extremely low shooting percentage, I like to look for overs in the next game. Why? The market usually overreacts. 

This total has already been pushed down a few points in the market. 

Oakland is playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. Oral Roberts slows the game down a bit, but they are terrible on the defensive glass and Oakland should get second chance and transition opportunities here. 

Oakland should be good on offense overall this year, and this is a pretty low number for a game they are involved in. Neither defense is very good.

The over is 8-1 in Oral Roberts' last 9 home games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas State Bobcats are one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year. This year won't be any different. Danny Kaspar's teams often don't have a ton of speed and athleticism, so they utilize a game plan that reduces the amount of possessions and forces their opponent into a style they aren't typically playing.

Canisius generally plays to the pace of their opponent. They play a lot of teams who like to run, so their tempo looks faster than it would in a different conference. They aren't playing a team who runs here.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* Northeastern lost their top two scorers from last year's team. The Huskies always play at a slower than average tempo, and so far this year they are playing even slower than normal. In some years, they have been efficient on offense, but this year they are really struggling shooting the ball.

Utah State is happy to play at a slow pace as well. The Aggies aren't a team that looks for transition opportunities very often at all. 

This a neutral site game where both teams aren't accustomed to the gym. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are 351 teams in Division One College basketball. These two teams are ranked 349th and 350th in terms of amount of time they use up of the shot clock. Basically, these are two teams who want to use up the clock as much as possible. When they get together, the tempo should stay very slow.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles have only played one game this year that has gone over this total. That was against UNLV. UNLV is playing extremely fast this year. 

Eastern Kentucky has had 3 games against Division I opponents, and 2 of the 3 were under this number.

This game is being played on a neutral floor. Neutral floor unders are 56.5% when the number is 135.5 or higher in the first month of the season. These are unique shooting backdrops and that usually lowers the shooting numbers a bit. 

Neither of these teams have been pushing the tempo this year. This number is several points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have consistently slowed the pace of the game down. Evansville hasn't played a game this year that went above 140. The Purple Aces have played their last three games to a final total of 123, 116, and 127. 

Fresno State has shot the ball really well in their first couple games. Fresno State has consistently been a team that struggles shooting the ball in the past couple years. The Bulldogs are likely to regress to the mean on offense again this year. 

This game is played on a neutral floor. The under is 56.5% in the past ten years on a neutral floor when the total is 135.5 or higher.

I think the defenses play well here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams known for playing slowly and controlling the basketball meet on Monday night. Wisconsin has less good offensive options than they have had in recent years. The Badgers will defend well though, and they do a nice job of defending without fouling. 

The Baylor Bears are always near the top of the charts in shot blocking. They make everyone work hard for their baskets in the paint. Baylor typically relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but Wisconsin is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

This total has been pushed up from its opening number, and I see that as a mistake.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really bad shooting team in recent years. They don't play very fast either. Cleveland State is clearly better on the defensive end than they are on offense right now. This Cleveland State team scored only 38 points against Rutgers. They scored only 57 points against Akron in a game with 82 possessions! 

The move upward on this total doesn't make any sense to me. Until these teams prove it consistently to me, I'm going to see them as teams that have to make the game ugly to win on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a neutral court game and those are much more favorable to the under in the early season. In fact, neutral court unders with a total of 135.5 or higher are 56.5% in the last ten years.

Wyoming plays very quickly, but they aren't all that efficient on offense. The Cowboys are good on defense and they have multiple shot blockers.

South Dakota State plays at a fairly average pace. They are good offensively, but Wyoming is much better than most defenses they play against. 

It isn't common to see a posted total set this high without both teams being excellent on offense and both teams running.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early season games played on a neutral court have cashed at almost 57% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 135.5 or higher. This is a neutral court, and it is the first time either of these teams have played in this gym. 

Elon's Coach Matheny talked in the preseason about wanting to slow things down a bit this year from their tempo in the past. They have a perfect opponent to slow it down against here. FIU is a very slow paced team that has played to a bunch of low scoring games in the last couple years since Anthony Evans took over.

I think this number should be 136.5, so we're getting 5 points of value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac has a new coach this year in Baker Dunleavy and he has talked in depth in the offseason about concerns on the offensive end. The team has shot the ball well through two games, but that was against Dartmouth and Brown. They step up in competition in a big way here. 

Colorado has a lot of length and athleticism, and they should be a solid defensive team this year. Colorado is a big favorite here and long term unders have been the way to go with a big spread like this.

On a neutral floor, the under has the edge because of the unique shooting backdrops for both teams. This is a place neither team has played. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies won't play as fast this year under Coach Mike Hopkins as they did under Lorenzo Romar. Hopkins has this team playing the Syracuse zone he learned under Jim Boeheim, and that typically limits the possessions in a game. 

Washington has been getting to the line at an extremely high rate through two games and that's where their offense has come from. They should get to the line less against a Providence team that has been good at defending without fouling under Ed Cooley.

Cooley's Providence teams have typically been better on defense than offense. He mixes up the defenses very well.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. The under is a very good bet in college games at Madison Square Garden because of the sight lines being so difficult. In the last 45 college hoops games at MSG as a true neutral court has seen 31 games stay under the total and 14 go over the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without three key players for this game. Jason Carter is their best big man and they'll certainly miss him a lot here. Carter is a good offensive rebounder and a decent scorer. 

Clemson no longer has Jarron Blossomgame, and he was the heart and soul of the offense at Clemson. The Tigers won't be as good on offense this year. What did Brad Brownell have as his focal point during the offseason? Defense. He was disappointed in the team's defense last year. Clemson has routinely been a great defensive team under his helm, but they weren't very good there this year. The team took a trip overseas in the offseason, and Brownell believes the team is set to be much better on defense this year.

This is a neutral site game. In the past ten years, neutral site games with a total of 135.5 or higher in the first eight games of the year have gone 57% under the total. That's a huge sample size. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* San Diego State is playing a whole new brand of basketball under Brian Dutcher. A San Diego State beat writer said Dutcher gave the Aztecs a choice in practices leading up to the season either push the ball in full court drills or get on the line and run sprints: either way they were going to run. Off missed shots Dutcher doesn't want the team running set plays, rather he wants them looking to score in transition.

Arizona State is one of the faster paced teams in the Pac 12, and the Sun Devils are likely to be happy to play fast in this one. They have a great backcourt and they have speed all over the court.

San Diego State no longer has an athletic shot blocker in the paint like they have had in recent years. Defense has been a struggle for Arizona State in recent years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos are playing a very unique style this year. New Mexico is going with the run and stun. Paul Weir is their new coach, and he saw that the team didn't have enough size this year and decided the team would press and run at an extreme level. Yes, they only played Northern New Mexico in their first game. Still, putting up 147 points (a record) and playing the game to a pace of 100 (blistering fast) shows the way this team will play.

Weir said, "I mean, the reality is we are a little undersized. The reality is we lack one or two McDonalds All-Americans on our team. What we have is our depth. What we have is our teamwork. What we have is our elevation. What we have is our speed, our shooting ability." They will run like crazy this year.

Nebraska Omaha has finished among the top nine in the country in tempo in each of the last five seasons. That's really impressive when you consider there are 351 teams. Omaha plays very quickly. They aren't likely to slow the game down at all here.

A really fast pace leads to value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers are going to be a much different team this year than last. Typically, you see value on a team's games in some way when there is a major stylistic change from one year to the next. I think that means Oregon State overs will have value for a bit here.

Oregon State was walking it up and stalling as much as possible, but that's because they were shorthanded due to injury. Tres Tinkle is the team's best player and he was injured. Now, Tinkle is back and he'll be one of the best players in the Pac 12. Ethan Thompson is running the show as a freshman in the backcourt for Oregon State and his speed is a major weapon. Oregon State will play much faster and score a lot more points this season. 

Wyoming ranked 15th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams last year. The Cowboys definitely want to run. Look for Wyoming to try to get transition buckets here and Oregon State will play to their style as they change things up this year.

I think the oddsmakers are a bit slow in adjusting here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames ranked in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace of play last year. They are going to run a bunch again this year. St. Joe's was a team last year that played to the pace of their opponent. St. Joe's played very fast in their first game against Toledo this year and that game saw 185 total points.

UIC's opponent in the first game was NC Central and they stalled the entire game and played a zone defense to slow the game down. I don't expect St. Joe's to do that, and UIC should get out in transition here.

St. Joe's is without Brown and Kimble here, and that's why the total has come down some. Still, I see guys like Newkirk and freshman Taylor Funk being able to score quite a few here. 

UIC has star Dikembe Dixson back from an injury last year, and he will be great for the Flames this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have a new coach this year. They were coached by Tom Moore last year. He coached the team to crash the boards and run as fast as possible. That led to constant run outs for the opposition. It led to a bunch of high scoring games.

Baker Dunleavy is the team's new coach. He is the son of Mike Dunleavy and he has been an assistant at Villanova under Jay Wright. Dunleavy will attempt to use the Villanova 4 out and 1 in game plan and win with spacing and solid defense. That should mean a much slower paced team than last year's Bobcats team.

Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux was one of the best players in the Ivy League. Before the season, Dartmouth's coach called Boudreaux "the guy we run our offense through" and "our leader", well that hit a speed bump when Boudreaux announced his intent to transfer on Thursday. Announcing two days before the season starts really makes it hard for this team to adjust its offensive game plan.

This total is awfully high for a game between two teams with a bunch of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs played at the third slowest tempo in the country last year. The team plans to play noticeably faster this year. Don't expect track meets, but there should be value looking to go over their totals early on. Jeff Jones said, "We don't have a choice but to play faster" based on personnel this season. 

Towson has been among the leaders in the nation in free throw attempts per possession the last couple years. They crash the offensive glass. They also do a lot of fouling on defense though. Both those are obviously good for the over.

Last year, these two met and the final was 61-58. Any kind of tempo change from Old Dominion should push this one higher, because last year's shooting numbers were subpar in that 61-58 game as well.

Early in the season, refs are usually a little quicker with the whistle, and I imagine there will be a lot of free throws here.

I'll go over this low total. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star Final 4 TOP Play CRUSHER* We're down to the final four teams left standing in the tournament. Now, things get a lot more intense. The teams have even more pressure on them, and things get a little tighter.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank first in the nation (351 teams) in defensive efficiency. The South Carolina Gamecocks rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's hard to not like an under when you have the top two defenses in the country squaring off against each other.

Gonzaga's offense is solid, but they aren't up to par with their defense. South Carolina's offense struggled most of the year, and the Gamecocks can go through some long scoring droughts.

What else do I like about this play? This game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. This is where the Arizona Cardinals play. It's a football stadium, and anytime you find a place that isn't built for basketball, you will have a difficult shooting backdrop. 

With the nerves of this time of the year combining with the massive football stadium and the two tremendous defenses, I like the under here. I think this game stays in the low 130's. 

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in the NIT Finals on Thursday night. 

Early in the NIT you can bet that there are a lot of teams who don't want to be there, and the over is a great play in those games. Late in this tournament, the teams are very motivated to want to win something. I think both Georgia Tech and TCU are highly motivated now to finish the deal. That motivation leads to better defense.

Georgia Tech ranks as the #252 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Yellow Jackets just aren't very good shooters. They rely on getting in the lane and doing damage in there, and TCU has some good shot blockers. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is very good defensively. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I love the way this team works hard on defense at all times. 

TCU will look to slow the pace of the game down, and the Horned Frogs don't get to the free throw line much at all. I think this Georgia Tech defense will be one of the best defenses they have played against this year.

Neither team fouls much at all on defense, and that's a big perk with the new NIT rules (no one and one's). My numbers made this one in the high 120's. 

Now, for an angle that is hard to overlook. The under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 NIT semifinal or final games. Why is that important? These games are played at Madison Square Garden where, the under has been golden in college basketball in the long run. This is a tough arena for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Tuesday CBB Red HOT CASH* The UCF Golden Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

In the NIT and all of the small postseason tournaments, the over often has value for the majority of the tournament, but once you get this far into the tournament things change quickly. 

In the last 29 NIT Semifinals or finals, the under is 23-6. Madison Square Garden certainly plays a huge role in that. MSG is the single best under venue in the country when it comes to college basketball. It is a massive gym where shooters often struggle to find the range because of difficult shooting backdrops. 

Additionally, now the teams are really invested in this tournament. No one wants to go home now. The defensive effort increases at this point in the tournament by a large amount.

We have UCF who ranks second in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. TCU ranks 58th in defensive efficiency as well. Two good defenses and two teams who don't foul much.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Sweet 16 TOP Play!* The Florida Gators and Wisconsin Badgers square off in what should be a really good game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. 

Florida ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency. Finding good looks should be very difficult for the offenses on Friday night. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 games played at Madison Square Garden. 

The shooting backdrop at MSG is tough enough for NBA shooters, and it has been too much for most college players. Very frequently there are some bad shooting numbers in games here. Specifically, three point field goal percentages are lower in games here by a large margin.

Wisconsin is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. I don't expect Florida to be able to run here. Neither of these teams are elite on the offensive end. Both teams are good at defending without fouling as well.

I think this game stays close the whole way, and I expect a final in the mid 120's. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Sweet 16 TGIF Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks were out of this world good on offense in the second half of their win over Duke last weekend. I had the over in that game and felt very lucky to have won that one.

The Gamecocks went long stretches in that game doing absolutely nothing on offense, and that's a concern for their offense moving forward. Baylor is a lot better defensively than Duke. The Bears rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their size and shot blocking ability on the interior should bother South Carolina a lot here.

South Carolina ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks force loads of turnovers (4th most in the country) and Baylor's weakness on offense is turnovers. The Baylor guards make too many poor decisions with the ball. That should lower their offensive efficiency quite a bit here.

Finally, this game is played in Madison Square Garden. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 college basketball games played at Madison Square Garden. This is a very tough gym for shooters, and I think we could see some ugly shooting numbers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Thursday Night Sweet 16 CASH* The Arizona Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers meet on Thursday night in San Jose. This is a new arena to these teams and that's a negative for shooting percentages. It's a hockey arena with relatively difficult shooting backdrops as well.

Xavier shot well over their season averages in their first two games in the NCAA Tournament. They made 11/17 from three point range in their 91-66 win over Florida State. The Musketeers now go up against an Arizona defense that only allows opponents to shoot 30.9% from long range. I think Xavier's shooting numbers come back down in this one.

Arizona has been relatively inconsistent on offense over the course of the year. The Wildcats are certainly good on offense, but they aren't elite.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow tempo, and with a total set this high, it will take some good shooting numbers to push it over the total. 

Last weekend's run on overs in the NCAA Tournament propped this number up a few points. 

The under is 5-1 in Xavier's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over has been the way to go in the past in the second round of these smaller postseason tournaments. With the new rules when it comes to no 1 and 1's and no 30 second reset on common fouls, the scoring is up a decent amount. 

It would be hard for me to take an under, and in this particular game, the total is set several points too low.

Cal State Bakersfield held Cal to some terrible shooting last game, but Cal is terrible offensively to start with and they were without their two leading scorers. It won't be as easy against Gian Clavell and the Colorado State Rams offense. 

Bakersfield does play slowly, but they also rank in the top 15 in most fouls committed this year. That's important since the new rules will magnify those issues. 

Colorado State's offense is high quality and the Rams played much quicker in their first postseason game than they did in the regular season. 

With a number set this low and the new rules, I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Akron Zips are excellent on offense, but they have really struggled defensively this year. Inside the MAC, overs were golden this year because there were so many good offenses and bad defenses. Akron fits the mold nicely.

UT Arlington just put up more than 100 points at BYU. UT Arlington loves to run, and I think they'll try to dictate the pace here. The Mavericks have a star in Kevin Hervey, and I'm not sure Akron has anyone who can guard him.

UT Arlington hasn't seen a big man like Isaiah Johnson for Akron, and he should do some real damage here. 

I see both teams scoring a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are an excellent offense and they play very quickly. There's no doubt they are capable of putting up a big number. In this case though, I feel like they are up against a team that has what it takes to turn it into a lower scoring game.

Cincinnati's Mick Cronin talked extensively in his interview with the Cincinnati media about the team's need to slow the game down and turn UCLA into a halfcourt offense. He said Cincinnati needs to use the clock and make UCLA work on defense for the length of the shot clock. Cincinnati is a top ten defense in the country. The Bearcats should be able to make UCLA take tougher shots than they are accustomed to taking.

Cincinnati ranks among the slowest 25 teams in the country, and they have made it clear they want to stall here. With a good defense and a team slowing the game down, this is a lot of points. 

I think this game will be tight, and I'll look for a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday College Hoops BEST Bet* The Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Greenville, SC on Sunday night. It should be a great atmosphere since there will be a bunch of fans there from each team.

South Carolina likes to run and the Gamecocks attack the rim well. They rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. The Gamecocks are led by a really underrated player in Sindarius Thornwell. 

Duke's offense has been good all year, and it has been excellent of late. The Blue Devils have too many weapons for most defenses. While South Carolina's defense is certainly good, they haven't been up against an offense this efficient all year. The Gamecocks defense commits a ton of fouls and Duke is great at the line at better than 75%. 

These games are being called very tight in the NCAA Tournament, and I think free throws push this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears are great at slowing the game down. Baylor ranks 331st in the nation in tempo. The Bears aren't going to let USC turn this game into a track meet. In the past, USC has been extremely fast paced. They are only slightly faster paced than the average team this year.

USC has been slowed down to a very slow tempo against both Providence and SMU. They shot the ball well in both games, but this Baylor defense ranks in the top ten in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling this year. USC ranks 5th in that category and Baylor 58th in the nation.

Two good defenses here and a total that is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. For this game to go over the posted total, there will have to be some pretty high shooting percentages. A total set at this price with two teams who play as slowly as MTSU and Butler is rare. 

MTSU is a very good team and I believe they'll be well prepared for this game. When they won against Michigan State last year, the Blue Raiders were just thrilled to have won one game in the tournament. This year, I expect MTSU to be extremely focused on reaching the Sweet 16.

Butler has played in a number of very low scoring games this season. The Bulldogs defense is much better than it was a year ago.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive glass so second chance points should be rare.

Take the under.

*4 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are a tough to play unders with, but I have to do it here. UCLA faces a Kent State team that somehow got through the MAC title game despite being short on talent. Kent State grinds and Jimmy Hall is a really good player for them, but outside of him, the Golden Flashes are at a big talent disadvantage here.

If you are Kent State, you have to know the only way you have a chance in a game like this is to pound it inside and slow the game down. There's no way Kent State should want to run with UCLA here.

UCLA is likely to win this one going away, and the Bruins have plenty of reasons to want to rest their stars late in the game here. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf are both at less than 100 percent now. They'll play again Saturday and that is a game that should be more competitive. 

On a neutral court where shooting backdrops are more difficult, this number is extremely high. That is especially true when you don't expect fouling late in the game with it being a blowout, and you expect one team to be trying to stall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames have been playing really fast all year. UIC ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Flames are good at attacking the rim and getting to the line. That's important with the new experimental rules in this tournament. Getting rid of 1 and 1's and putting in all 2 shot fouls will definitely lead to more points. UIC shoots over 71% from the line. 

Stony Brook tends to play at a fairly slow pace, but in their non-conference games they did get out and run with some teams. I think their tempo looks slower than it truly is based on Stony Brook playing in a conference where everyone stalls. 

Stony Brook shoots 72.2% from the line, which is a big help with the new rules. 

I think this one gets to 150, which gives us some value on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round. South Dakota State ended the season playing very well, but the jump from playing Summit League competition to Gonzaga is massive.

South Dakota State scored at will through the Summit League play, but that is largely because no one in that conference is any good at defense. Take a look at how South Dakota State scored against teams in the non-conference slate. They only scored 58 against UC Irvine. They scored 59 against E Tennessee State. They scored 53 against Cal. 

Gonzaga has the second ranked defense in the country. The Bulldogs have so much athleticism on defense and they should hound South Dakota State here.

The move up to 156 points gives me plenty of value here. Gonzaga should score a lot here, but a total of 156 can be hard to reach when one team is struggling to score. I think 150 is about right.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Princeton Tigers get things tipped off in the Round of 64 with this battle. Princeton is a dangerous team given their unique style of play. The Tigers will look to slow the game down as much as possible.

Princeton played a number of games that were paced to less than 60 possessions this year. In fact, four of their last seven games have played to 59 possessions or slower. I think this will be another game that is that slow.

Notre Dame plays in the ACC where most of the teams try to push the pace. The Fighting Irish are one of the slowest teams in the league. In this one, Notre Dame will get to play their preferred style.

This one is on a neutral floor where shooting percentages are typically lower than normal. Neither team gets to the free throw line much at all. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big Ten this year. Iowa had trouble finding opponents who wanted to run with them most of the year in the Big Ten. They won't have that same problem here.

South Dakota ranks 27th in the country in least time on average to put up a shot. The Coyotes are going to run with Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are 21st in that same category.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 11th in the nation in tempo. This team has been great at turning every game into a track meet this year. 

Eastern Washington is a great offense. They have shooters on the outside and a great scorer inside in Wiley. The Eagles have been able to shoot the ball well all year long. They generally play at a slower tempo, but their offense is good and their defense is very bad.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Plenty of pace and scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Rice Owls rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. San Francisco ranks as a slightly quicker than average team in terms of tempo.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

I am tracking a system where both teams play at an average tempo of 68 or higher and the home team shoots 42% or higher from the floor. If the total is set at 132.5 or higher in a game like this in the first two rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments, the over is 44-17 in the last 61 games. 

Here, we have a great shooting team in Rice playing on their home floor. The Owls will force the tempo and San Francisco isn't likely to stall the game out. Rice is the favorite and the better team, so I expect them to control the game.

A fast paced high scoring game here in this early small tournament game.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Utah Valley ranks 12th in the nation in overall tempo. They will force the pace in a big way here. Georgia Southern has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent all year.

Both teams are very good at getting to the line, and with two shot fouls every time the points should come in quickly here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have had trouble with offensive efficiency all year. NC Central isn't a prolific offensive team by any means either. Both of these teams are significantly better on defense than they are on offense.

This game is played at UD Arena, and it has been a really good gym for unders in the past few years. The pressure of this game has led to some really low scoring contests in the First Four contests in recent years. 

I see two teams who defend well without fouling and two offenses that struggle with jump shots to start with. Add in the fact that this game is played at a new venue to them, and the nerves of the NCAA Tournament.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday Total DOMINATION* The Monmouth Hawks and Ole Miss Rebels meet in the first round of the NIT on Tuesday night. 

Monmouth ranks as the 22nd fastest paced team in the country. Ole Miss comes in as the 33rd quickest in the country. This game should be an all out track meet. Every year, these early NIT/CBI/CIT games are played at a much faster tempo than regular season games.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. It will make a few points of difference, and that's key here.

Look for a very high scoring game from two good free throw shooting squads. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* Cincinnati and SMU square off in the AAC title game on Sunday afternoon. These two teams play a very similar style and recent match ups between these two have been highly competitive. 

Cincinnati has one of the top 8 defenses in the country. The Bearcats make you work extremely hard to get good looks. SMU is also very good defensively.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of pace of play. The tempo should be slow all the way in this one. 

Long-term the under has been a great play in conference tournament finals. Both of these teams are playing for the third straight day, and in this spot in conference title games the under is 61% in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size, and a great winning percentage.

Look for a close game where the defenses play extremely well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Creighton/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The Creighton Blue Jays take on the Villanova Wildcats in the Big East Tournament final at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

There isn't a building in the country better for unders than Madison Square Garden, especially when it comes to college players. The under is hitting at a little better than 65% in the last five years when MSG is a neutral site for college contests.

Villanova nearly lost on Friday night, and they should come out focused here. The Wildcats have the best defense in the conference. They are particularly good at defending without fouling (first in the country). They also do a great job defending beyond the arc. 

Creighton settles for a lot of jumpers, and I don't think that will be a good formula against this Villanova defense. 

Villanova is great at slowing the game down and I think they will dictate the pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Rhode Island Rams and Davidson Wildcats met twice in the regular season. They scored 129 in the first game. They scored 124 in regulation in the second game. 

Davidson plays at an average pace. Rhode Island is slowing things down of late. The Rams are consistently playing games to about 64 or 65 possessions. The Rams are also playing much better defense than they were earlier this year. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession.

Davidson relies heavily on three point field goal attempts. Rhode Island ranks third in the nation in 3 point field goal defense. Opponents are shooting only 29.2% from 3 against the Rams.

Davidson's defense is much improved from a year ago, and their shooting has been worse.

This game is played at PPG Paints Arena, which is a hockey arena. No doubt this is a tougher shooting backdrop than these two teams are accustomed to.

I had this one four points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Weber State Wildcats meet in the semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament here. I think these are the best two teams in the conference. Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. 

The two regular season games finished at 154 and 137 points. Both had a slow tempo, but they shot well and had a foul fest in the 154 point game. 

This game means so much to both teams that I think the tempo slows down even more. A neutral floor helps as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Nevada has the best offense in the Mountain West, and it isn't even close. Fresno State fouls a bunch, and Nevada is great at getting to the line. 

Fresno State won both regular season meetings, but Nevada is the better team. Nevada is favored by six and this one has the potential for a late foul fest that would help the over in a big way. 

I had this one at 150. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Florida State was able to get the tempo they wanted in those games.

Notre Dame is excellent offensively, but they aren't very good on defense. Florida State will get points in transition, and they should get second chance opportunities as well.

This is played at Barclays Center in New York. The over has done really well here in a small sample size.

I had 154.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This one is way off most people's radars, but I think this one holds some significant value. 

The Toyota Center is a very good under gym. It's a spacious arena and it is known for being difficult for college shooters. That is especially true when you consider the SWAC teams play in small gyms normally. Now, they'll be playing in front of a massive gym with almost no people in it. That's a good scenario for unders in the long term.

In this game, Alcorn State and Southern meet. The two regular season games between these two both stayed under the total. One finished at 138 and one at 135. Alcorn State slowed the pace down in both contests. 

While these teams aren't great defensively, they are better than most SWAC teams. The tough shooting backdrop and a high number make this a good value play. I had this lined at 136 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UC Irvine has the best defense in the conference. Irvine is good at controlling the pace and they want to play slowly. Long Beach State started the year out playing fast, but of late they have definitely slowed down.

One of the regular season meetings was 149 and one was 135. This game is played at Honda Center which has been a great under venue over the years. That alone should lower the posted total by at least 3 or 4 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers beat the Butler Bulldogs in impressive fashion last night. They won by slowing the game down and playing some great defense. That's how they'll have to do it here against Creighton as well.

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team, and this game is played in Madison Square Garden, which is a very tough arena for shooters. The under is hitting at better than 65% in the last 50 college games played at MSG.

Xavier and Creighton played one game under this total and one over this total this year. The shooting numbers were really bad in one of the games and excellent in the other. I think it is unlikely we'll see excellent shooting numbers in this game played at Madison Square Garden.

Look for both defenses to come ready to play. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* PPG Paints Arena is a hockey arena in Pittsburgh, and this place definitely has a bad shooting backdrop. It is hard for shooters to shoot a high percentage here.

George Washington lost twice in the regular season to Richmond, but I think they have a shot here. They will slow the game down.

Richmond's last four games of the year have been their slowest paced games, so I believe they will be ok with the slower pace.

I had this one at 138. Take the under.