*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have played three top 80 teams in a row in Evansville, Little Rock, and UT Martin. That has made them have some high scoring games of late. I'm going to go the opposite way on this one and take an under against Morehead State.

Morehead State is 347th in the country in average possession length. The Eagles are well known for slowing down the pace. Morehead State's Kalil Thomas is averaging 11.7 points per game and he missed last game and is questionable here. 

Both of these teams have had bad luck when it comes to "free throw defense" with opponents shooting a very high percentage from the line against them. 

The pace should be pretty slow here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen always want to push the pace under Frank Martin. UMass is 43rd in the country in tempo this season. Duquesne is quick when it comes to average possession length. 

These two teams played twice last year and the games were played to blistering fast paces of 75 and 82 possessions. The final scores were 167 combined points and 166 points.

UMass has been markedly better this year on offense than they were a year ago. This team is doing a much better job getting to the hoop and getting second chance points as well.

Duquesne similarly is excellent at getting to the free throw line and getting second chance points on the glass. 

These two teams both struggle on the defensive glass and they both struggle to defend without fouling. 

The matchup points toward an over having value with their strengths and weaknesses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed up the way they play the last few games. Western Michigan has played three games in a row to a tempo faster than 70 possessions. The Broncos are getting very aggressive going after offensive rebounds. Javonte Brown has joined the lineup in these three games, and it has made a huge difference. Brown has been a great spark for them.

Miami Ohio is elite from three point range. The Redhawks are shooting nearly 40% from long range. Western Michigan has had a terrible three point defense last year and this season thus far. The Redhawks biggest weakness is their rebounding. Western Michigan is likely to get a lot of second chance opportunities here.

I think the offenses have key edges here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs offense is terrible. Cal Poly is 336th in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are 343rd in average possession length too, so they are stalling as much as they can even though they are playing from behind. 

UC Davis is an average paced team on the whole. They do play pretty quickly on offense, but they slow teams down by mixing up their defenses. The Aggies defense has really bothered Cal Poly in the last few seasons.

Both teams have played a far tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year, which I believe has skewed their numbers a bit.

The last three meetings between these two teams have had 116, 128, and 110 points total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles rank 62nd in the country in tempo. Eastern Washington has played a VERY tough schedule so far this year. They have played the 7th toughest slate of defenses in the country according to KenPom. I expect their offense to look far better in Big Sky play.

Sacramento State is the worst Division I defense Eastern Washington has faced so far this season. The Hornets do not force turnovers and they give up a bunch of open 3 pointers. 

The Eastern Washington defense doesn't force turnovers at a high rate, which could save Sacramento State's offense here. The Hornets shoot a bunch of 3's, and I expect positive regression from 3. They have turned it over at a very high rate this year, but I think they can score enough here.

The last three meetings between these two have finished with 156, 153, and 145 points. Big Sky overs have done great in the last decade. I think this number is set too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats have really turned it on offensively in the last few weeks. They put up 78 at Cal Poly. They put up 84 points at Wyoming. They just scored 93 points in a fast paced game against Montana.

Weber State has been much more aggressive in recent games and they have picked up their pace. The Wildcats have several good outside shooters and a very good frontcourt player in Dillon Jones.

Montana State does have an advantage on offense that they can turn to here. The Bobcats are good near the hoop. They are 62nd in near proximity shots (right by the basket) and Weber State is 345th defending near the hoop. The Wildcats have absolutely no shot blockers.

The Big Sky is well known for the lack of defense and low overs in the Big Sky have done tremendous in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are one of the worst offenses in the country again this year. They are 329th in the country in shot selection and 343rd in the nation in spacing on offense. They are 333rd in offensive efficiency. 

Eastern Illinois has also slowed their pace down quite a bit this season. They are 314th in the country in tempo after being 146th last year. 

Eastern Illinois is a team that relies on mid range jumpers and doesn't get to the line much.

SIU Edwardsville is even slower at 345th in tempo. They were 80th last year so this is a huge drop off. Edwardsville also is below average offensively. 

The total has been bet up in this one, and I have to side with the under. This should be a very slow paced game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have changed the way they play in the last few games. They have drastically slowed down their tempo. East Carolina is now all the way down to 294th in tempo in the country. In five of their last six games the game has played to a 65 possession pace or slower. 

East Tennessee State is slightly slower than the average team at 200th in pace. The Buccaneers are 323rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. This is an offense which has really struggled. They rely on three point field goals a lot, and the strength of the E Carolina defense the last couple years has been their three point defense.

This totals number makes sense for full season data, but E Carolina has changed their style a lot in recent games and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early game on Christmas break for the students. This should be a quiet environment. 

Elon's defense is definitely bad, there is no denying that. Valparaiso's offense has been bad enough to make some really bad defenses look decent this year though. Valpo only scored 56 on IUPUI. They scored just 62 points on Chicago State. 

Valpo has done a great job defending without fouling this year. Elon does rely heavily on two things on offense. The first is getting to the line. The second is knocking down three pointers. 

Elon is due for regression from three. The Phoenix are at 37.4% from long range this year after being just 29.2% from three last year. It is most of the same guys too.

Valpo has slowed down their pace in recent games as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Big Sky Conference play starts here. The Big Sky is perennially a terrible conference on defense. Next to no one in this league plays defense. 

Game overs in this league have been a tremendous bet over the last decade. If you just blindly bet all the Big Sky Conference games over the total you would have a 7% ROI.

These two teams both take a bunch of threes so there is definitely some variance in a game like this. Still, this is a spot where I have to expect points. 

These are two of the bottom 50 three point defenses in the country. Especially Sacramento State has played a lot of quality defenses this year. The Hornets are likely to start shooting better than 30% from three point range when they play against the weak Big Sky defenses. 

Idaho has tried to push pace at times this year. 

Both teams are good from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. Rutgers is blocking nearly 18% of opponent shots so far this year. They are 7th in turnovers forced so far this year as well. Rutgers is 276th in effective field goal percentage offense. They have had a lot of trouble scoring against good defenses the last few years.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have shot the ball quite a bit better than last year so far, but they haven't faced many good defenses yet. I think they'll struggle more here. 

This is not a home game for Rutgers, it is a "neutral" site game. That by itself is a positive for the under as well. 

I think both teams will find open shots to come by here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins always play good defense for Mick Cronin. UCLA was embarrassed last game out against Cal State Northridge. They lost at home against the Big West school, and I would expect to see UCLA come out with much more intensity on defense in this one. 

Maryland is 25th in the country in defensive efficiency. They do a good job forcing turnovers and keeping the opponent out of the paint.

UCLA is 26th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bruins are way down at 284th in effective field goal percentage offense. Maryland is all the way down at 290th.

There has been some steam on the over. Many times very low totals get bet up, but I think this one was low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host Houston Christian in their last game before Christmas. Texas A&M will have a little over a week until their next game. With most students gone for the break and this being a poor opponent, I think Texas A&M will be content to just win here and not push pace. In fact, Texas A&M has really slowed their pace in general this year. They are 329th in the country in tempo. 

Houston Christian just doesn't have outside shooters. They are shooting 20.8% from 3 point range this year. That is last in the country. Texas A&M should be able to pack in the paint and try to force them to make some long range jumpers here.

Jay Alvarez is one of the best scorers for Houston Christian and he has missed their last two games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play excellent defense under Joe Gallo. They play a great zone defense that extends full court to intentionally slow the game down. Merrimack has played a bunch of great offenses already this year, and their defensive numbers are still stellar. 

Bucknell is one of the worst offenses Merrimack has played so far this season. Bucknell also is 344th in average possession length. This is a team that will be happy to play a slow and low scoring contest.

These two teams are both very poor at getting second chance points. I think there will be a lot of turnovers and not that many offensive boards.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The William & Mary Tribe are 62nd in effective field goal percentage offense. They are all the way down at 345th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

William & Mary is a team that puts up a lot of long range jumpers. They should get a lot of good looks from 3 point range here. Pepperdine has been in the bottom 70 teams in the country in 3 point FG percentage defense in the last two years. 

Pepperdine is an above average paced team. The Waves typically foul opponents at a high rate. William & Mary is excellent from the free throw line. Pepperdine's aggressive nature getting in the paint on offense should work here with William & Mary lacking a good shot blocker down low.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen have played nine games this year. Only one of those games have gone over this total in regulation. That was a game that finished with a total of 143 points. Navy is one of the worst offenses in the country. The Midshipmen are 356th in effective field goal percentage offense. Navy is 57th in effective field goal percentage defense though. Ed DeChellis' teams play slowly and they play scrappy defense.

Youngstown State has some really good offenses already this year. They have gone against Michigan, Dayton, and Ohio. The Penguins are 129th in defensive efficiency in the country. They have played a bunch of quick paced teams, but Navy doesn't play that way at all.

I had this number at 134.5 and I think this one has gotten too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons are playing some tremendous defense so far this season. The Dons are 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer. San Francisco is slowing the tempo down in a big way on offense. They are 293rd in tempo.

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 290th in offensive efficiency. They have played a lot of weak defenses lately (Pacific, Incarnate Word, Southern Utah) and that has propped up their point totals of late. Northern Arizona doesn't get to the line much at all, and they very rarely get offensive rebounds. I don't think they'll get many easy looks in this one either.

Both teams are in the bottom 35 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

This number has been pushed up several points.

I'm taking the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just met December 9th and South Dakota won 78-73. Now they play in Bakersfield. 

South Dakota just allowed a ridiculous 121 points to UC Irvine. UC Irvine isn't an offensive juggernaut either. South Dakota is 333rd in defensive efficiency in the country. They don't get any steals, don't block any shots, and give up a lot of second chance points. A very poor defense.

Cal State Bakersfield has ranked in the bottom ten in the country at defending without fouling in the last two seasons. They give up a lot of second chance points too. South Dakota's offense has a big advantage shooting the 3 here, and South Dakota puts up a lot of shots from long range.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel is 333rd in average possession length on offense. They are looking to use up as much of the shot clock as possible. Notre Dame is a little slower at 339th. This game will be played at a very slow pace.

Notre Dame has seen 7 of their games finish at 133 points or less, and The Citadel will be the slowest paced team they have played against so far this season.

The Citadel isn't great defensively overall, but they are excellent at getting defensive rebounds and not fouling. Notre Dame is elite in both of these areas as well.

With a very slow pace and small amounts of second chances and free throws, I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles defense hasn't been tested by good offenses this year, but their defensive numbers are still awful. Niagara has faced the 355th toughest slate of offenses (362 teams in the country) and they are 345th in defensive efficiency in the country. They are giving up far too many easy baskets close to the hoop.

Binghamton has made a clear effort to play faster this year. They are 113th in tempo in the country. They are driving to the hoop as often as possible, and those shots in the paint should be much easier to come by against Niagara than most teams.

Binghamton is 302nd in defensive efficiency. This is a matchup of two very weak defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastadons have a good coach in Jon Coffman. He is known for running good sets where they have good spacing and shooters get a lot of open looks. They like to play with pace too. Fort Wayne is 36th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 37th in the country in tempo. 

Bethune Cookman is 46th in the country in tempo. They have committed fouls at the highest rate of any team in the country. They'll use full court pressure quite a bit and they'll likely get burned on that much of the time. 

I think the tempo here will be in the 77 possession range. A track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Mason is an interesting team in that they have played to the pace of their opponent quite a bit. They are likely to be playing from the lead here, and they have shown they'll slow things down with a lead.

George Mason is pretty good, but they are due for some shooting regression. Woody Newton is shooting 63.6% from 3 point range so far this (14/22). Last year he was 18/65 (27.7%) from 3 point range. As a team they are shooting better than 40% from 3 point range. 

Loyola Maryland is a very weak offense, and they are badly undersized. They'll have a tough time getting open looks here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are elite defensively. This is a team that will make you work extra hard for your points. Rutgers was 6th in defensive efficiency last year, and they are 14th so far this season too. 

On offense, Rutgers takes a few too many mid range jumpers that are contested shots. The Scarlet Knights will score here on LIU, but they aren't always too efficient.

LIU is 353rd in offensive efficiency. This is a team that was held to 53 points in a 77 possession game against Pepperdine. They were held to 49 points in a 74 possession game against Miami.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been a very good under team this year. Dartmouth is 293rd in the country in tempo. They were 105th last year, so this is a big slowdown.

Dartmouth has been held to 54 points or fewer four times already this year. Boston does a great job on the defensive glass and they have defended the 3 point line well.

These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons. The final scores in those games- 65-62 (127) and 67-59 (126). I think this game will be very similar with a combined total in the 120's.  

With the line move up here, I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls offense is better than they have looked so far this season. Rice was 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 289th so far this year. This is a bunch of the same guys playing, they just aren't making the shots they did a year ago. They are shooting only 27.9% from 3 point range and I expect that to improve in a big way.

Rice has played a very tough schedule of defenses this year. They have had to go up against Harvard, Texas, UC Irvine, and Houston to name a few. 

Incarnate Word is arguably the worst defense Rice has played so far this season. They are 347th in defensive efficiency. They are 35th in overall tempo, so they have given up loads of points. UTSA scored 90 points on Incarnate Word. Bethune Cookman scored 96 points on them. 

Rice is below average on defense, and Incarnate Word will put up a lot of shots here. Rice doesn't force many turnovers and that is usually the biggest weakness of the Incarnate Word offense.

A day game where it is "School House Mania" and school children will be in attendance. This should be a fun up and down game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 356th in average possession length. This is a team that is playing extremely slowly. Green Bay has a new coach in Sundance Wicks. He has this team playing much better defense than they did a year ago. Green Bay was a miserable 345th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are at 78th in the country right now. The Phoenix have been mixing up their defenses really well.

UIC is coached by a defensive minded coach in Luke Yaklich. He did a great job leading the Michigan and Texas defenses when he was an assistant. UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage defense. UIC is 242nd in tempo as well, so they are good with lower tempo games.

Seven of Green Bay's ten games have stayed under this low total. UIC has played some very quick paced teams. That shouldn't be an issue here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It isn't easy to take a Gonzaga game under, but this total has gotten high enough I have to take this one. I had this number at 158. 

This is played at a neutral site. Gonzaga's offense is clearly very good, but they aren't elite as they were a year ago. Gonzaga was 20th in shot selection last year. They are 222nd so far this year. They have knocked down quite a few tough shots, but that could regress against a long athletic Washington defense.

Washington slowed down last year's meeting between these two and it finished just 77-60. This one should be higher than that, but I'm not convinced this should have a mid 160's total on it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats are 357th out of 362 teams in the country in tempo. Weber State is great at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive rebounds and preventing second chance points. 

Cal Poly toyed with playing quicker earlier in the season, but they are back down to 346th in average possession length. The Mustangs just had a 49-49 game at the end of regulation against Oregon State last time out. They have slowed the pace drastically in recent weeks.

Weber State has held St. Mary's to 56 points and Yale to 59 in regulation. 

I think this will be a defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers are a terrible shooting team. They are shooting only 25.7% from 3 point range. The Beavers do play good defense though. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense despite playing a tough schedule of opposing offenses. 

Utah Valley is 62nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah Valley will probably be without key player Drake Allen in these games. The Wolverines have significantly slowed down their tempo under new coach Todd Phillips.

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and they both prefer to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met a year ago and the final was 59-49 with an extremely slow pace of 55 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the year for Fullerton and the second slowest for Sacramento.

Fullerton has played the 27th toughest slate of offenses this year, so their defensive numbers should improve. The Titans have been dreadful on offense. They are settling for too many mid range jumpers. 

Sacramento State shoots a lot of shots from long range, but Fullerton has been good defending the arc last year and this year so far.

Both teams turn it over a lot and waste possessions. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave are a very fast paced team. They have had a lot of high scoring games this year. Tulane though is about to play against the best defense they have faced so far this year, and it isn't close.

Tulane will probably be without Cross in this game which hurts the offense a lot. Tulane has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this year, and playing against the grind it out defense of Chris Jans and company should be tough for them.

Mississippi State's offense has clear issues. The Bulldogs scored 59 points against GA Tech two games ago and then scored 59 again last game in a shocking loss to Southern.

I think Miss State will do their best to slow the pace down here. They protect the paint well and should be able to make Tulane work hard.

A neutral site here and an early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 309th and 333rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Eastern Illinois is 351st in the nation in shot selection on offense. They are 338th in the nation in spacing on offense.

IUPUI is 313th in shot selection and 350th in spacing on offense.

Last year when these two teams met they both were playing quicker. The final combined total was 129 points and that was with 43 fouls called in the game.

This is a game I projected in the high 120's. After a line move toward the over, I'll go back the other way.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Valparaiso has a new coach this year and they are struggling badly on offense. This team is 348th in shot selection out of 363 teams in the country so far this year. Valpo is much improved on defense though. They are contesting shots very well.

Central Michigan is 232nd in the country in tempo. Valparaiso is 152nd. The pace of the game could be relatively quick, but I think the efficiencies will be poor here. 

C Michigan is 299th in shot selection in the country. This team shoots it poorly and turns it over far too often.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are playing a very slow controlled style under Micah Shrewsberry. They are 336th in average possession length in the country. Notre Dame doesn't yet have the scorers to be ultra efficient on offense like Shrewsberry's Penn State teams, but he is a smart coach and he'll have them playing the right style until they do. 

Western Michigan is a team who turns the ball over at a very high rate. The Broncos also jack up a bunch of three pointers. They are shooting 36.3% from long range on the year, and I fully expect this number to drop. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% the last couple seasons. 

Notre Dame is top 100 in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. They are bottom 100 in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. 

Western Michigan likes to play slowly too. This should be a game played in the halfcourt.

Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have played quicker in the non-conference portion of their schedule several times in the past, and they have always slowed things back down quite a bit when the Big Ten season gets here. I think they are pretty likely to do the same thing here.

Iowa plays really fast and the Hawkeyes are a great offense. I understand why the total is very high. The Hawkeyes have played a lot of very fast paced opponents with questionable defenses though. The Hawkeyes scored just 67 against an Oklahoma defense that is 10th in defensive efficiency in the country. 

Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers obviously have the height and interior presence on defense. Iowa isn't as good from long range this year.

I think this will be a high scoring game, but this total is so extreme that I have to side with the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies are trying their best to get to the basket on offense. It has worked pretty well, but UC Irvine has a long history of defending the paint very well. The Anteaters are coached by a defensive minded coach in Russell Turner. I expect Irvine to contest these Utah State drives into the paint well in this one.

UC Irvine has faced the 34th toughest slate of offenses on the season thus far. They have faced just the 157th toughest slate of defenses on the season thus far. UC Irvine's stats are skewed a bit right now based on the toughness of the offenses they have had to face.

The tempo should be no faster than average here. Both teams have a pretty high turnover rate, so I see plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs toyed with playing a quicker tempo earlier in the season, but they have gone back to slowing it down in a big way of late. They are 344th in the nation in average possession length, and that is after starting out playing pretty quick. They have slowed things to a crawl in recent games.

Idaho has a new coach this year, and they are 280th in overall tempo this year. The Vandals are not likely to be able to take advantage of Cal Poly's biggest weakness on defense (fouling too much). Idaho is 358th in FTA/FGA on the year. Idaho is a very poor shooting team on the whole too.

Idaho's recent games show they have slowed down the typically fast Denver and UC San Diego. 

I think the tempo trends point to the full season data being too quick on the pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing a new style of basketball under Coach Newman. They are picking up the pace in a big way and attacking the rim hard on offense. They are getting to the basket often and drawing quite a few fouls too. Northridge is now up against a Northern Colorado team who is weak when it comes to interior defense. The Matadors should get good looks inside here.

Northern Colorado likes to shoot the outside jumper. The Bears haven't shot the ball as well as I would expect them to so far this year. I think they'll improve. Northridge likely has a hard time keeping them contained here.

Northridge is 39th in the country in overall tempo. Northern Colorado is 72nd. This one should be a track meet.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* George Washington has had some very high scoring games this year, but those games were against teams that were nothing like South Carolina. 

George Washington has played some very fast paced opponents this year. They haven't played a team in the bottom 125 teams in the country in tempo all season. That will change here. South Carolina is 306th in tempo out of 362 teams. Lamont Parris' teams have a strong preference for slowing things down.

George Washington is shooting 37% from 3 point range this year. This is a team that shot 33 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons. They are 335th in the country in open 3 rate. They should cool off from long range eventually.

South Carolina is also shooting better from 3 than I would expect. The Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from 3 point range the last two seasons, but they are at 37% this year.

Neither team has a history of fouling much and they are both excellent on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are 292nd in the country in tempo. St. Thomas is 354th out of 362 in the country in tempo. This should be played in the halfcourt.

St. Thomas worked extensively in the offseason on improving on defense. It has helped them improve some on that end this year. Andrew Rohde was their go to guy that the offense ran through last year, and now he is a Virginia Cavalier. This offense isn't nearly as efficient. They almost never get offensive rebounds or get to the line, and they aren't as good shooting from the outside so far this year.

Western Michigan is atrocious from the FT line (58%). The Broncos are shooting 39.4% from 3 point range, but I see no reason to believe they can shoot that well in the long run. They have been 33, 33, and 32% from three point range the last three seasons. 

A slow pace and not many second chances or free throws.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames have finally improved a lot on the defensive end this year. Luke Yaklich is a defensive minded coach who has done some great work with defenses in the past (at Michigan and Texas). UIC is 11th in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

Illinois State is 343rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage on offense. The RedBirds have played against only the 305th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. UIC is the best defense that Illinois State has played thus far. Illinois State is above average on defense, and they have been excellent at forcing turnovers. 

UIC is 240th in the nation in average possession length. Illinois State is 224th in average possession length. The tempo should be relatively slow here.

I see this as a sloppy game where the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers spoke of playing quicker and playing a different style under Aaron Fearne this year. They haven't done that. Charlotte is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the country. The 49ers highest scoring game this year (regulation) was 130 points. Five of the six games have finished regulation with a combined total of 122 points or less. 

Charlotte is getting worse shots this year than last year. They are 240th in shot selection in the country. They are 311th in spacing on offense. Charlotte is getting almost no offensive rebounds.

Davidson is 311th in tempo, so they prefer to play very slowly too. 

Both teams excel at defending without fouling, so we shouldn't see too many free throws here.

With the line move up today, I have to go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Valley Wolverines have a completely new team this year. They returned just 4.4% of their minutes from last year. Utah Valley has a new coach too after Mark Madsen left for Cal. Utah Valley's tempo has slowed down a lot this year. They are using about a second more per possession, and they are an extremely poor shooting team. They are just 55.4% from the free throw line through their first four Division I games. 

Seattle is 49th in the effective field goal percentage defense. They are also playing a good amount slower than a year ago. This is a team that has held opponents to very tough shots. They are 22nd best in the country in shot selection allowed so far this year.

These are two good defensive rebounding teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores have a great offensive minded coach in Josh Schertz. His style of play is pushing the tempo to the maximum and getting up a bunch of three point jumpers or getting to the hoop. There are virtually no mid range jumpers in his offense. Indiana State's rim and 3 rate is right up there with Alabama.

Indiana State is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They are 14th quickest in the nation in average possession length. This Sycamores team brought in a great long range shooter in Isaiah Swope from Southern Indiana. He is 17/35 from 3 point range so far this year. 

The Southern Illinois Salukis are a slower paced team, but the Salukis are improved on offense so far this year. They are top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense.

Southern Illinois lacks a rim protector and I think Indiana State can get to the basket against them.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams are 290th and 312th in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost exclusively in the halfcourt offensive sets. 

South Carolina is shooting 39% from 3 point range so far this year. The Gamecocks shot 31% and 32% from long range in the last two seasons. I think their numbers will regress to the mean. 

South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks have one big weakness and that is fouling too much. Notre Dame is bottom 50 in the country in getting to the free throw line. 

Notre Dame has a good coach in Shrewsberry, but he doesn't have the talent in place to have a strong offense yet. This is a team that has to play very slow and try to win with solid defense and taking care of the basketball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles have a new coach and they are playing completely differently this year. Coppin State was 19th in the nation in tempo last year. The Eagles were running at every single opportunity. Fast forward to this season and Coppin State sits at 304th in tempo in the country. 

Coppin State is also dead last in the country in offensive efficiency. They are taking some terrible shots. Coppin State has been held to 49 points or fewer in four of their six games this season.

La Salle has been about average in terms of tempo this year. The Explorers under Fran Dunphy have typically not run up the score too badly late in games when they have a lead. They should be up throughout in this game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies rank dead last (362nd) in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies have allowed 88 points or more in all but one game so far this year. They just allowed 96 points to Merrimack and 88 points to Alabama State in their last two games. Both of those teams are inefficient offenses who usually struggle to score. 

Samford is a very fast paced team (45th in overall tempo) and the Bulldogs like to use full court pressure to speed the game up. They have scored 89 points or more in three of their last four games. I think they put up a big number in this game.

Both of these teams have given up a lot of second chance points on the year. Both teams have been above average from the free throw line as well.

Two teams in the top 60 in tempo and I expect a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Revolutionaries and the Ohio Bobcats meet in a neutral site battle in the Bahamas on Friday night. George Washington has been white shot shooting the basketball so far this year. After shooting either 32 or 33% from three point range the last three years in a row, they are shooting 38.3% from long range so far this year. They haven't even been getting open looks either. George Washington ranks 338th in the nation in open 3 rate so far this year. This team isn't likely to keep shooting the ball so well.

Ohio is an above average defense. The Bobcats are 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. I don't think they are that good, but they are a pretty good defense. 

Ohio is an average paced team. George Washington has been playing teams that are absolute burners and this is likely to be a slower paced game. 

This is an early season neutral site game and these have trended under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have played four games against Division One teams this year. The highest scoring game of those finished at 131 points. One of the games finished at 129 combined points after an overtime. MTSU is consistently playing excellent defense and settling for a lot of poor mid range jumpers on offense. 

UIC is getting better defensively under defensive minded coach Luke Yaklich. UIC has an elite shot blocker down low in Toby Okani. The Flames have been busy playing teams who want to run which has skewed their totals higher in the early going. Now, they play a team who wants to slow things down and turn it into a halfcourt battle.

An early season neutral site game- these have skewed under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been knocked down several points, and I'm going to side with the over.

Jacksonville is playing much faster than they did a year ago. They played a 70 possession game and put up 85 points against GA Southern. 

Robert Morris put up a respectable 68 points in a loss to defensive minded Wisconsin. The Colonials went under this total by one point against Towson, but Towson is among the five slowest teams in the country.

Both teams are bad on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities could be crucial in this one. They both foul a lot as well. Both teams shoot a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions have slowed their pace down drastically this year. SE Louisiana is 328th in the nation in average possession length. Last year they were 79th. SE Louisiana was able to slow down a very fast paced Santa Clara team in their last game.

Western Michigan has to slow the pace down consistently. The Broncos just don't have a good enough offense to win many high scoring contests. W Michigan is 332nd in the nation in average possession length.

This game is being played at Northwest Florida State College Arena as part of a neutral site tournament. This has been a good venue for unders in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats are a good offense, but their offensive numbers are skewed a bit right now because of who they have faced. Arizona has played three teams outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage defense. They have only played one good defense this year and that was Duke. Duke is 73rd in effective field goal percentage defense. Michigan State is much better at 7th. 

The Spartans block a lot of shots and really defend the paint well. Michigan State is 200th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Spartans aren't going to be able to get easy looks against a very tall Arizona team either. Arizona is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Michigan State is likely to want to slow this game down. They are 329th in tempo this year. Arizona will try to run. I think Arizona's transition offense will be less efficient in this one than they have been the rest of the year.

This is a neutral court that is usually a hockey arena. That is long term a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see a lot of paths pointing to a lot of points being scored in this game. Tulane is great at forcing the tempo of the game. The Green Wave are 24th quickest in the country in average possession length. Tulane has been great at getting to the free throw line every year under Ron Hunter. Cal just put UTEP on the line 37 times yesterday, and the Golden Bears are likely to commit a lot of fouls in this one.

Cal is an average paced team on offense. They have played several teams who like to stall, but they are up against a very quick paced team today. One of Cal's biggest strengths is getting second chance points off the offensive rebounds. Tulane is a very weak rebounding team.

This line has moved down because it is a neutral floor game, but I think it has moved down too much. Neither defense is all that good, and the offenses have key advantages.

Take the over. 

*Note- I would bet this as high as 155 if it goes up.* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights are now coached by Jack Castleberry. He promised before the season to keep this program playing at a very fast pace. He has kept his program thus far. The Knights have played at the 7th fastest pace of any team in the country. Castleberry not only coached under Tobin Anderson, but he also was an assistant at The Citadel under the ultra fast paced Duggar Baucom. This team should keep running and gunning. Their big weakness on defense is not being able to grab defensive rebounds. 

Queens always wants to run. They have played four teams in a row who play at an average or slower pace. That has kept their scores down of late. They now face a team who also wants to run and play very quick. Queens is only shooting 29.8% from 3 point range, and they shot 34.8% from 3 last year. I think their shooting numbers will improve in time.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors have slowed down their pace to just 328th in the country in overall tempo. Austin Peay ranks 350th out of 362 teams in shot selection so far this year. They are taking a bunch of bad jump shots. They are living in the mid range contested jumper area so far this season.

Sacramento State is 244th in shot selection. The Hornets are 293rd in overall tempo this year, and Coach Patrick has consistently had his teams play very slowly.

I don't think either team wants to run in this one. Both teams turn it over a bunch so I see a lot of wasted possessions. 

This is a neutral floor game played early in the day. That has been a bonus for under bettors in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix have turned every game into a halfcourt sloppy game this year. Green Bay is stalling to the max right now. Green Bay is 359th out of 362 in average possession length. 

The UC Riverside Highlanders are consistently a slow paced team that is better on the defensive end than the offensive end under Mike Magpayo. They have finished in the bottom 50 in average possession length each season with him as coach.

This is a neutral site game and these early season neutral site games have skewed toward the under in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under with FIU isn't necessarily a comfortable experience, but I think this one is set a little too high given the circumstances.

This is a neutral site game being played in the Cayman Islands. Neutral site games have trended under in the long run, and early tipoff times (11 am eastern here) have trended stronger to the under than the rest of the neutral site games. 

FIU does play quickly, but they don't shoot the ball well. FIU was 213th in offensive efficiency last year and they are 233rd so far this year. 

Loyola Marymount is a slightly slower than average paced team. Loyola has had some high games this year because opponents have been shooting lights out from 3. Loyola's 3 point defense the last few years has been much better than they've started this year. FIU has been very weak from 3 point range the last few years too.

Early start with a really high total. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Commerce Lions are 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Stonehill ranks 335th in that same number. 

Stonehill has given up massive points against St. Joe's, UConn, and Kentucky in their last three games. Texas A&M Commerce and their weak offense are unlikely to put up a big number. Stonehill's recent games being so high against very good fast paced teams has inflated this number too much in my opinion. Stonehill played one slower paced team (Army) and it was 57-44 in that game.

Texas A&M Commerce is 307th in average possession length, so they are looking to slow the game down. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars rank 329th in the country in tempo. The SIU Edwardsville Cougars rank 353rd in the nation in tempo. This game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. 

SIU Edwardsville has gradually gotten better on defense every year in the last three seasons. This team is focused on slowing the game down and winning with defense. They were 129th, 102nd, and now 73rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Three of their four games against Division I teams this year have finished 118 points or lower.

South Alabama has played multiple teams that want track meets which has made their games higher scoring. This is the slowest opponent they have played yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are 332nd in the nation in tempo. Marty Simmons has his teams wanting to slow the pace down year after year. They have to slow things down a ton right now because they just don't have any go to scorers. Eastern Illinois struggled to a 48-46 win over Coppin State yesterday.

Miami Ohio is a medium paced team that has shot the ball better than expected so far this year. The Redhawks do slow the pace when they have the lead and they are clear favorites here.

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Utah Valley has a new coach this year in Todd Phillips. They have slowed their pace quite a bit so far this year. The Wolverines are 228th in effective field goal percentage offense and 30th in defense. 

Southern Miss is a medium paced team. The Golden Eagles do take a lot of bad mid range jumpers though. Southern Miss only put up 64 points on William Carey in a fast paced game. They scored 54 against Akron.

This is an early season neutral site game and those have been good to under bettors in the long haul.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have been very consistent at slowing the pace of the game down both last year and so far this season. Weber State is 357th in the country in average possession length so far this year. Yale is 335th in average possession length. 

This game is played on a neutral floor in Canada. If these two teams keep playing at their preferred pace, it will take either very high shooting percentages or a ref show to send this one past the posted total.

Both teams were in the top 11 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage last year. I expect second chances to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are nothing like last year's team. They were ultra fast paced last year and got into some very high scoring games. Coppin State finished last season 19th in overall tempo in the country. They are 257th so far this season. 

Coppin State is also very bad on offense. The Eagles are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have only topped 55 points one time this season. They have been held to 49 points or fewer in three of their five contests. 

Eastern Illinois plays at a slow pace coached by Marty Simmons. They are 339th in average possession length. The Panthers are 338th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that is involved in a lot of very low scoring contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have shot 31 and 32% from three point range in the last two seasons. They are shooting 43.9% from long range so far this year. This will regress to the mean over time. South Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. This is a team that should play quite a few lower scoring games this year once their shooting numbers dip back down.

DePaul was 67th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They have dialed back the pace quite a bit this year. The Blue Demons are 251st on the season so far. 

This is an early season neutral court game in the Bahamas. These can have tricky shooting backdrops and have trended toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Stay Play Under* Coppin State has a new coach and a completely different style of play this year. They were 19th in overall tempo last year. They are sitting at 234th in overall tempo this season so far. Coppin State is 362nd (last) in the country in offensive efficiency.

Miami are an average or slightly slower team in terms of tempo. The Redhawks are terrible on the offensive glass, which helps mitigate Coppin State's biggest weakness on defense (defensive rebounding). 

I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans are improving a lot on defense under Tim Miles. They were 79th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. So far this year, they are 39th. They also rank 315th in average possession length. They aren't in any hurry. 

Abilene Christian always has a good aggressive defense that forces a lot of turnovers. The one negative about their defense is they do foul too much. Abilene Christian's offense settles for a lot of poor jump shots.

This game is being played in the Virgin Islands at a gym where the under has done well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The William & Mary Tribe were 352nd and 284th in offensive efficiency in the last two years. They have shot the ball well in their first couple games, but this team is unlikely to be able to keep this up. They haven't played good defenses, and they have played teams who are happy to run. 

Omaha has shown they want to slow the game down even though they have been losing. The Mavericks don't want to get into a track meet here. They are 262nd in average possession length. 

This is played on a neutral court. Both teams are shooting a lot of long distance jumpers. If they are all falling this will go over, but neutral court unders early in the season have done well in the long run. The long jumpers are on average tougher to hit in a neutral site situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are 23rd in average possession length so far this season. Presbyterian has sped up significantly from a year ago. They were #285 last season. Presbyterian played two teams who aren't very  fast paced in their games too so I don't think it was a fluke. 

Presbyterian is 2-0 and it is largely because no one can make a shot against them. Opponents are shooting 21.8% from 3 point range and 41% from two point range this season. Presbyterian has been awful at defending the 3 point line in the last few seasons. In fact, they were bottom 15 in the entire country in both of the last two seasons. They were also bottom half of the country in 2 point defense. 

North Florida is excellent from 3 point range. The Ospreys have been so good from 3 that they have been called "The Birds of Trey" by some. They shoot a bunch of long range jumpers, and I think they'll make their fair share in this one. 

North Florida was 346th in defensive efficiency last year. They struggle badly on the defensive boards and offensive rebounding is a strength of Presbyterian.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Eastern Illinois and Illinois State played last year and the final was 54-49. I certainly don't expect it to be that low this time, but I think this total is quite a bit too high. 

Eastern Illinois has a bottom ten offense in the country. Marty Simmons' team just doesn't have any go to scorers. They also play at a far below average tempo. I'm not going to say their defense is good, but it is definitely better than it looks through two games. Their two opponents have been Illinois and Loyola Chicago. Both of those teams are very quick and are good offensively. 

Illinois State lost a 80-71 game played to 77 possessions against St. Louis. St. Louis is all about running. The RedBirds of Illinois State were 300th in tempo last year, and I think KenPom and others are projecting the pace too quick in this game at 72 possessions. 

Last year's game was 62 possessions. I'll try to take advantage of these two playing fast paced teams and inflating the total here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are playing at a much faster tempo this year under a new coach. Coach Newman has his team getting out in transition as often as possible. Northridge led for much of the game against Stanford and scored 79 points. They then put up 76 at Idaho. They will keep pushing the pace here.

Chicago State hasn't played a team in the top 125 in the nation in tempo so far this year. Northridge is 27th so this is a big tempo jump. I think the Chicago State defense will be bottom 30 or 40 in the country this year. Chicago State has a history of committing a lot of fouls. Northridge is attacking the basket and not settling for long range jumpers.

I think the pace will be enough here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were beaten down by both Alabama and Purdue. That's more than understandable. A bunch of teams are going to get crushed by those two top teams. Morehead State's defensive numbers look bad right now, but I think they'll be very solid against the mid-major teams again this year. Morehead State historically does a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't foul very often either. 

Morehead State is 338th in average possession length. The Eagles are very good at controlling the pace. Mercer is also a slow paced team. The Bears are 295th in average possession length. 

Mercer lost 71-64 to Clark Atlanta (obviously not a Division One team) in their first game and beat Chicago State 66-61 in game two. Mercer is good defensively, but on offense they have struggled to find an identity.

Last year's game between these two was played to just 60 possessions. I think we see another slow one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Temple Owls should be a better offense under Coach Adam Fisher this year. Temple is going to put up more shots from long range and Fisher thinks they have the guys to shoot the ball pretty well. Temple's pace is about 5 possessions per game quicker than it was a year ago at this time. The two offenses Temple has faced are among the very worst in the country. Maryland Eastern Shore and Navy are bottom 25 offenses in the country. Temple's defense will get a bigger test here.

Drexel does a good job not turning the ball over and the Dragons are just mediocre on the defensive end. Temple has a height disadvantage and Drexel should score in the paint here.

This number has dropped to the point where I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early season matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the St. John's Red Storm. 

St. John's made a massive coaching hire in the offseason by bringing in Rick Pitino. Pitino does prefer to play quickly, but St. John's was first in tempo in the entire country last year. They certainly won't play as fast as a year ago. St. John's did score 90 points against Stony Brook in game one, but their exhibition games were pretty low scoring. They beat Rutgers 89-78 in double OT. They lost to Pace College (several guys were out in that game).

Michigan has played two teams who are really bad defensively and like to play fast. The Wolverines high scoring games in the first two contests have pushed this total upward too much. I do think Michigan can be better defensively than they were a year ago.

Madison Square Garden is the venue for this contest and it is a good under arena. Yes, I know St. John's is accustomed to playing here, but the under has hit in 64.5% of St. John's games at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team under Joe Gallo. The zone press they use is actually to slow the game down. They are really good at controlling the style of play. Merrimack takes a lot of poor shots on offense, and if they don't get a bunch of steals and quick scores it can be very tough for them to score in the halfcourt. 

Maine was 259th in tempo last year. The Black Bears do force quite a few turnovers, but they aren't good at turning them into transition points.

These two teams played a couple years ago and it was a 49-47 final. I'm not projecting this one to be that low, but I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves new coach Bryan Hodgson talked all offseason about how fast they were going to play this year. They went out and proved in game one. They did the unthinkable and played a game to 81 possessions against the Wisconsin Badgers. They lost 105-76 in that one, but the fact that they got Wisconsin to play that quickly with them is impressive.

Arkansas State now takes on Bowling Green. The Falcons have a new coach in Todd Simon. Simon's teams have routinely finished in the top 50 or 60 in tempo in the country. His teams are known for attacking the hoop and playing aggressive defense. Their opponents often get to the free throw line quite a bit. 

Look for a very quick pace in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins play strong defense under Kevin Willard. This is a top 30 defense in the country. Maryland ranked 326th in the country in tempo last year. They moved at a slow pace again in their first game earlier this week. 

Davidson is a physical team that slows the pace down as well. The Wildcats were #294 in the country in tempo. Davidson isn't likely to push the issue here against a Big Ten opponent.

This game is played on a neutral site. The Cherokee Center which is 28-17 to the under. Early netural site unders have been good in the long run in CBB.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Georgia was absolutely flying up and down the floor in their season opener against Oregon. That game played to a blistering pace of 83 possessions. Georgia couldn't hit a shot from the floor or the FT line (17/30 from the charity stripe), but I expect their shooting numbers to be better against a weak Wake Forest defense. 

Wake Forest has pushed the pace a lot the last couple seasons. The Demon Deacons put up 101 points in a win over Elon in game one. It was concerning to allow 1.03 points per possession to a bad Elon offense in that one though.

I think this one goes to 76 possessions or so and that means even mediocre shooting should put this over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames and Charlotte 49ers meet late this afternoon in Charlotte at a "neutral" court. This is at the Spectrum Center which has not been an under venue at all.

The money has come in on the under here. I do in general like neutral site unders, but this isn't a bad shooting backdrop and this number has moved too much. 

Charlotte has a new coach in Aaron Fearne. He said in the preseason they were focusing heavily on pushing the pace more this  year (they were very slow a year ago) and getting a lot more second chance points. By crashing the offensive boards more it is a clear positive for the over in that it both  creates second chance points for them and makes them have a worse transition defense.

Liberty is a good team who has several shooters. The Flames can spread you out and move the ball around very well. 

The change in style isn't accounted for here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors have a new coach this year and they are going to play with extreme tempo. The Matadors are 12th in the country in tempo so far this year. The fast pace worked too. They were actually up 76-72 with 4 minutes left against Stanford before falling apart and losing 88-79. That was a nice showing for this Big West team against a Pac 12 big school.

Idaho was beaten 84-59 by Washington State in their first game. The Vandals have been atrocious on defense the last few years, and I expect more of that this season. Washington State plays very slowly so I believe the Idaho tempo stats are a bit skewed right now. Alex Pribble is their new coach, and Pribble said he wanted to pick up the tempo this year. Here is a great chance for them to run with CS Northridge.

Both of these teams have a penchant for fouling a lot so a bunch of free throws wouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are going to play nothing like they did a year ago. Northridge has a new coach in Andy Newman. Newman has preached a faster pace all through the offseason. He wants this team to play a fun brand of basketball and be high octane. They probably won't be very good at first, but I expect them to play very quickly.

The Stanford offense will have some big edges at multiple spots on the floor here. Stanford is a veteran team this year and they have multiple scorers. Spencer Jones will be a matchup problem for the Matadors. 

Stanford's point guards are better this year and I expect them to get to the hoop here.

The pace should be quick.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. This team has been committed to playing quickly under Coach Lange the whole way. This team has good spacing and has been implementing a Rim and 3 strategy on offense. They return several good backcourt players who should be pretty reliable scorers.

Lafayette has a new coach and an entirely different strategy this year. This team ranked 349th in tempo last year. Their new coach came from a smaller school and he was well known for faster tempo and efficient offenses. He even said before the season that they will play faster and be better on offense. Surprisingly, the coach even said he expects them to be worse on defense. 

Lafayette playing completely differently is important to this handicap. I expect a pretty fast pace. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Carolina hosted USC Upstate last year and the final was 68-53 with a very slow pace of 59. 

South Carolina plays very slowly under Lamont Paris. It makes sense because he was under Bo Ryan before becoming a head coach. Paris' teams are good at controlling the pace and winning with a lack of turnovers and with solid defense.

USC Upstate lost their best scorer from a year ago. USC Upstate developed a solid defense last year. The only thing they do too much is foul with their aggressiveness. South Carolina was bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line.

I think this one is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies defense has been excellent at the end of the year. The Huskies have held Gonzaga to 54 and Miami to 59 points in their last two games. They also held St. Mary's to 55 earlier in the tournament. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, and they can go through long scoring droughts. San Diego State had a clear height advantage against Florida Atlantic, but the length of the UConn defense should bother them. Clinigan and Sanogo are a great tandem down low. The length of the UConn guards is excellent too.

San Diego State's defense has been fantastic all year, but they have been at their best in the NCAA Tournament. They will do their best to turn this game into a rock fight. I would expect them to contest UConn's three point jumpers better than anyone else in the NCAA Tournament has. San Diego State is second in the nation in 3 point defense % allowed.

The neutral court here at NRG has led to the 9 games played here going under the total by more than 5.5 points on the average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs are now the #2 ranked three point defense in the country. San Diego State is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.7% from three point range on the year. Florida Atlantic is 35th in three point frequency on offense, so they are definitely accustomed to taking a lot of shots from long range. San Diego State is going to contest those long range jumpers better than anyone Florida Atlantic has played this year.

San Diego State has really been grinding down the tempo of their games of late. They slowed a very fast paced Furman team down to 63 possessions. They slowed a pretty fast Creighton team down to 62 possessions. KenPom projects the pace of this game at 66 possessions, but I think that is a bit too quick. Florida Atlantic was slowed to just 59 possessions against Tennessee. That is the most similar team the Owls have played. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, especially with Matt Bradley in a major funk. Their leading scorer during the season has been awful in their last three games. San Diego State is a very inconsistent jump shooting team. Florida Atlantic is underrated on defense.

This game is played at NRG Stadium, a massive football stadium where the shooting backdrop has bothered some teams. The under is 4-3 in games played here with the under cashing by an average of 6.29 points in the seven game sample overall. Two of the overs have cashed by two points or fewer. None of the unders have cashed by less than five points. 

I think this will be a tight game where easy shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense is elite. Gonzaga's guards are better than they looked in their close win over UCLA in the Sweet 16. I would expect them to hit a few more shots from deep in this one. Drew Timme will have a tougher matchup here in the paint, but he has been excellent the last two years and I would still expect a pretty good scoring game from him.

UConn is firing on all cylinders right now. The Huskies have scored 87 and 88 points in two of their NCAA Tournament games (Iona and Arkansas). UConn is tremendous on the offensive glass, and Gonzaga is only decent on the defensive glass. Timme is elite on offense, but he is subpar on defense and I think UConn's big guys can have a big offensive game. 

These two teams are first and fourth in the nation (363 teams) in second chance conversion percentage, which is quick second chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. 

The pace here should be pretty quick. UConn is an average paced team and Gonzaga likes to run as much as possible. 

The Gonzaga defense is a big weakness, and UConn should be able to take advantage of it. UConn's three point shooting has been good of late, and they have several scoring options from outside.

The UConn defense is good, but they do foul a bunch. Gonzaga is good at getting to the line and they should be in the bonus quite a bit in this game. I expect them to get plenty of good looks.

Gonzaga's game against UCLA cashed the over and even went over this total despite UCLA going 11 minutes without making a field goal in the second half.

T Mobile Arena has been a good over arena. The rims here are loose and there isn't a tough backdrop. The over is 25-12 in the last 37 postseason games at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Those games have gone over the total by an average of 5.59 points.

This should be a great game and overtime or a foul fest late is certainly possible.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been known as a great offensive team in the past few years under Greg McDermott. They are still very good on offense, but this is the best Creighton defense McDermott has had. In fact, Creighton is 23rd in offensive efficiency in the country and an even better 13th on defense.

Creighton is elite at two key things- defending without fouling (3rd in the country), and defensive rebounding (13th best in the country). These two things can really help keep a total down. 

Princeton has made a stunning run into the Sweet 16. The Tigers have done so by controlling the pace in a big way against both Arizona and Missouri. Both of those teams play faster than Creighton. Princeton knows their best chance to win is by stalling and playing low scoring games. The Arizona game was low all the way. The Missouri game stayed under, and was very low scoring until Missouri turned the game into a ridiculous foul fest late down 15 points. Even with all that fouling late the game ended up being played to a pace of just 63 possessions.

Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 points or larger are 23-8 to the under in the last 31 games. This one fits the bill. That same angle with a total of 135 or higher is 18-3 to the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes has plenty of shortcomings as a head coach, but his teams defend with tremendous intensity. Florida Atlantic hasn't played anyone who defends the way Tennessee does.

The Tennessee offense isn't very good. The Volunteers take a lot of long range jumpers, but they are shooting just 33.0% from 3 point range. Tennessee relies heavily on getting second chance opportunities. Florida Atlantic ranks 43rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They also rank 43rd out of 363 in the country in defending without fouling.

Florida Atlantic's offense focuses on putting up a lot of 3 point jumpers. The Tennessee defense is first in the country in 3 point percentage allowed at just 26.0%. The Owls are going to have a much harder time than normal getting up open long range jumpers.

Madison Square Garden is the host for this game. This has been the single best under venue in all of college basketball for the long term. The tough shooting backdrop can be really hard for shooters to adjust to. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* TCU takes on Gonzaga on Sunday night in what should be a fun contest between two very good teams.

TCU does play quickly, but the Horned Frogs have been extremely inconsistent on offense. They are very good defensively. TCU is 23rd in defensive efficiency. They are also 23rd in turnover rate forced. The Horned Frogs will switch up their defenses a lot and look to give Gonzaga's offense some trouble with unique setups. Gonzaga's offense is excellent, but they haven't faced many teams throughout the year who are able to be as aggressive and force turnovers at the rate TCU can. 

TCU's is just 213th in effective field goal percentage offense. It will be pretty rare to see a total in the upper 150's with one team who has been this inefficient on offense. TCU had been very good on the offensive glass earlier with Eddie Lampkin being a key, but he is off the team now. The Horned Frogs will rely heavily on Mike Miles in this one.

Ball Arena in Colorado at a high altitude hosts this game. The first four games played here all stayed under in the Round of 64. They stayed under closing numbers which had dropped drastically in many cases. They stayed under by an average of 6.75 points. The second half was very low in most of these games. 

I think the pace will be pretty fast here, but I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. It's a one and done and the unders have been hitting at a very high rate in this NCAA Tournament. Hopefully we get another ref crew here who swallows the whistle more than in the regular season games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers do like to play fast and they will try to push the temp, but Princeton has to know that they don't want to get into an up and down track meet with Missouri.

I backed the under between Princeton/Arizona and it stayed under by 40 points. I certainly don't expect this one to stay that low, but Princeton did show they are able to slow the game down against a team who wants to run and run. 

Missouri is very weak on the defensive glass, but Princeton is below average in their offensive rebounding percentages and second chance conversions. 

Princeton is elite at getting defensive rebounds (8th in the nation) and the Tigers defense is above average.

This is a really high total and both teams would have to shoot the ball well to reach this total at my expected pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The defenses here are elite. Tennessee is second in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. Duke is 17th for the year, but they are a top ten defense in the last month. Both defenses do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and making opponents take contested mid range or long range jumpers frequently.

Tennessee has given up 57 points or less in four of their last six games. The Volunteers have lots of flaws as a team, but they are very athletic and they play great team defense. On offense, Tennessee lacks shooters and often goes through long scoring droughts.

Duke is a little too careless with the basketball, and Tennessee should force turnovers and hurt Duke's offensive efficiency here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out as a rare team from the MAC who defends very well. Kent State took a fantastic game plan in and nearly won at both Houston and Gonzaga. They slowed the game down and used their top notch defense to keep the game close. 

Kent State's Hornbeak and Payton are long and athletic, and Jacobs is a fantastic one on one defender. I think they are more than capable of giving Indiana a really tough time getting open looks. 

Kent State's offense isn't consistently good. The Golden Flashes aren't a very good outside shooting team, and I don't think they can get in the paint and score on a consistent basis against Indiana.

This game is played at MVP Arena in Albany which has been a fantastic under venue in the past. It's a large arena with a tough shooting backdrop. How good has the under been in games here? The under is nearly 60% in the last 200 games here.

Look for both defenses to make it tough on the opposition here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Providence Friars both play at a slower than average tempo. This is a neutral site game in Greensboro. In Greensboro, totals of 140 or higher have gone 75-47-1 to the under. The average margin of victory for the under is a solid 3.56 points over this large sample size.

Kentucky's offense will likely drive into the lane a lot here, but that is the strength of the Providence defense. The Friars will mix and match defenses a lot under Ed Cooley.

Providence's offense relies too much on Bryce Hopkins. There's a lot of pressure on him in this game against his old team. The Friars have relied heavily on offensive rebounds as well, but Kentucky was first in the SEC in defensive rebounding this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles defense was very weak early in the season, but since the start of February they have consistently been much better on defense. Marquette is a good defense now overall, but their weakness is defensive rebounding. Fortunately, Vermont isn't the type of team that goes after it on the offensive glass very much at all. Vermont is 358th out of 363 in offensive rebounding. The Catamounts are happy to get back and stop opponents in transition.

Vermont's good transition defense helps here too. The Marquette offense is excellent overall, but I think they'll have a bit harder time than normal getting to the hoop in transition. That should mean more shot clock being used up.

Neither of these teams get to the line very much at all, and second chance points aren't likely to be very high in this game either. 

These high spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. I think this under has value as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas A&M Aggies attack the basket and get to the free throw line at a high rate. There aren't many teams Penn State has played this year that attack the hoop as hard as the Aggies do. Penn State lacks shot blockers on the interior. In fact, they are just 327th out of 363 teams in the country in blocked shot percentage.

On the other side, Penn State is an elite shooting team. The Nittany Lions shoot 38.5% from three point range. Penn State is going to shoot a bunch of long range jumpers in this one. On the surface Texas A&M's three point defense looks good, but I see a couple big reasons for that. First, the SEC in general was a horrible three point shooting conference this year. Penn State will be the best long range shooting team Texas A&M has played. Second, that is shown by Texas A&M ranking 213th in open three rate allowed. Opponents were missing open shots. I think Penn State can make them. Jalen Pickett is an elite playmaker and Lundy, Funk, and Wynter are great outside shooters. 

The pace will be relatively slow here, but I think the efficiencies should be high enough for it to get over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* High seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament who are favored by a large margin have seen their games go under the total at a high rate. That has been especially true when the total is set at a high number.

Arizona likes to play quickly, and they should score quite a few points here. At the same time, if they are up late it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull quite a few starters and slow things down a bit. They will have a tough challenge ahead with just one day off in between.

Princeton should absolutely know their best chance is to stall and slow the tempo down drastically. The Tigers will shoot a lot of long range jumpers here. They are going to be up against a very long Arizona team who will contest those long range jumpers much better than the teams Princeton played against in the Ivy League.

Arizona's defense isn't elite, but it is much improved and they looked great defensively against UCLA in their last game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are 31-3 on the season. Charleston has been fantastic this year, but they did play a very weak schedule. Charleston hasn't seen a defense as good as San Diego State all season long. 

San Diego State's defense has rounded into form in a big way of late. Their last four games opponents have scored 0.931 points per possession or less in each contest. San Diego State is clearly a top eight or ten defense in the country. 

Charleston is all about getting out in transition and running, but San Diego State ranks in the top three in the nation in transition defense. Charleston's halfcourt sets end in too many contested three point jumpers. I don't think that is a good solution against the Aztecs.

San Diego State's offense still goes through long scoring droughts pretty often. They too often settle for low quality mid range jumpers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't usually play many unders early in the smaller postseason tournaments, but I'm going to in this one.

The fact that it is a smaller postseason tournament is definitely accounted for in the number or else this total would be several points lower. In recent years the over and under have been pretty even early in these tournaments.

This is a big game for Liberty. A chance to host a national power in a postseason tournament. Liberty should be highly motivated for a game like this. The Flames are consistently very slow paced.

Villanova is even slower paced than Liberty this year. The Wildcats and Flames both are top 50 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both of them excel in defending without fouling too. 

They do both shoot the 3 ball a lot and if they are red hot from 3 this will go over, but with normal shooting percentages this game should stay under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the Big East Finals on Saturday night. These two teams met twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 156 points and 137 points. The pace of both of those games finished at just 69 possessions and 68 possessions. Marquette mixes in some zone defenses, and that has caused Xavier's offense to slow down from their normal very fast pace.

This game is at Madison Square Garden which is arguably the single best under venue in all of college basketball. The under has been money again this year at MSG in the Big East Tournament. Both games went well under the total last night. 

ShotQuality looks at the quality of shot taken and they believe the two regular season games between these two teams should have finished 154 and 150 points.

The tougher shooting backdrop and a lot on the line in the finals of the Big East Tournament. I'll take the under on this high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls are likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless, but I know their coaching staff has talked about wanting to finish the deal and win this Conference USA Tournament. The life of a mid-major isn't easy, and they want to avoid losing to MTSU twice in the same season.

MTSU is a slower paced team that relies on getting second chance points. Florida Atlantic is the single best team in the conference when it comes to defensive rebounding. The Owls do a great job defending without fouling as well. 

Florida Atlantic does play quickly, but their defense is underrated. The Owls rank in the top five percent of teams in the country in shot selection allowed.

This one is at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. This is a football facility that has been great to under bettors through the years. The semifinal and final rounds played here have gone 10-3 to the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams met twice this year. The pace was very slow in both games. One finished with 134 points and the other with 110 points.

Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken by each team. They believe the 134 game should have been 129, and the 110 game should have been 119. Both were legitimately very low scoring games.

This is a win or go home and neither team will be pushing the tempo. These are the top two teams in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage as well.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Take the under.