*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's held off the Kansas City Royals 12-10 on Wednesday night. Kansas City has been tremendous offensively of late. How good? The Royals have scored six runs or more in 8 of their last 12 games overall. 

Oakland has put up 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 11 games, so the A's have been having offensive outbursts often in recent contests.

This is a mid afternoon contest where the high temperature will reach about 87 degrees. The wind will be blowing out toward left field at about 11 or 12 mph throughout this game. That's a great environment for run scoring.

Paul Blackburn and Daniel Lynch are both subpar pitchers at this point, and there should be plenty of people on base throughout this game.

The over is 18-6 in Nestor Ceja's 24 games behind home plate.

Take the over in this afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers offense has woken up a bit of late. They have scored 18 runs in their last three games, and some of the guys who weren't hitting the ball very well are showing signs of life. The Dodgers are healthier now than they were in the middle of the season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but having Ketel Marte back in the lineup has helped a lot. Marte is their best hitter, and he has been solid down the stretch. 

Tony Gonsolin isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game, and the Dodgers middle relief is questionable. Gonsolin is coming off an injury and only went 3 innings in his last start.

Luke Weaver starts for the DBacks and he is a below average righty. The Dodgers excel against right handed pitching.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the best over umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio of 2.14 for 2020 and 2021 is extremely low. He is a hitter-friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays send Jose Berrios to the mound on Thursday against the New York Yankees. Berrios is at his best when he has elite control. In his last three starts, Berrios has 0 walks and 24 strikeouts. The Yankees lineup has scored a total of 4 runs in the first three games of this series. The Yankees have topped 4 runs in a single game only 2 of their last 11 contests.

Nestor Cortes starts for the Yankees and he has been very solid this year. Cortes has a great 2.67 ERA and a solid 3.63 FIP. It hasn't been a fluke. He has been very good. The Blue Jays lineup is a tough test, but George Springer is questionable with an injury and he is great against left handed pitching. 

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and there is no better under umpire than Eddings. His strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios are consistently either the best in the majors or in the top five. 

The weather here calls for 70 degrees so the ball shouldn't carry as well as it does sometimes at Yankee Stadium.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Triston McKenzie has been a really highly touted starting pitcher for the Indians over the last few years. McKenzie struggled a bunch earlier this year. What was wrong? McKenzie wasn't trusting his stuff. He was nibbling on the corners too much and walking far too many batters. He was routinely walking 4 or 5 batters a game. That won't cut it in the majors. 

McKenzie has changed his approach in the last month and the results have been amazing. He has walked three batters in his last five starts combined. McKenzie has allowed just 5 hits in his last 21 innings pitched! It has been a spectacular run for McKenzie of late. The Twins don't have the strong offense we expected at the beginning of the season. They have had key injuries and traded away some top talent as well.

Joe Ryan starts for the Twins here. Ryan is a very high strikeout guy. He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A this year. The Indians offense has been streaky all year, but they have been ice cold the last couple nights. 

The weather here is helpful with a relatively cool summer night in Cleveland and the winds blowing in at about 10 mph. 

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and his strikes called percentage is above 65%. His strikeout/walk ratio is above 3. He is an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Phillies are only 18th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Phillies are an impressive 8th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

While Eric Lauer's numbers for this year look decent, I'm not about to think he is a really good left handed starter. The Phillies lineup should get chances here.

Aaron Nola has disappointed down the stretch. Nola has good stuff, but he is inconsistent. Nola has a 5.57 ERA on the road this year. He just gave up 6 runs to the Nationals in his last start. The Phillies bullpen is still a clear weakness.

We have a low total here and two offenses who have been hitting the ball pretty well overall.

Jerry Meals is the umpire here and that's a clear plus for the over. The over is 18-7 in his 25 games behind home plate this year. Meals long term has a very low strikeout/walk ratio- so he has consistently been a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies are hard to ignore at a big plus money price at home. Colorado is a whopping 45-24 at Coors Field. The Giants are just 17-35 in their last 52 games at Coors Field.

Kevin Gausman has poor number against the Rockies. This lineup has an impressive .361 wOBA against him. He goes into Coors Field where the weather is very hot for this one.

Kyle Freeland has been pitching his best of late. Freeland has solid numbers late in the season in his career, and he has rounded into form again this year.

Colorado is a fiesty home underdog here. The Giants deserve to be favored, but I make this one much closer to a 50/50 win chance than the oddsmakers have set this. Grab the price.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are fighting to the finish. Detroit has a winning record since the first month of the season. They are well managed and this is a team with multiple good young starters. Tarik Skubal is one of them. Skubal is a good lefty with great strikeout stuff. The Pirates rank last in the majors in offense against left handed pitching. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates start Bryse Wilson here. Wilson isn't terrible, but he is clearly a notch or two below Skubal in talent. The Tigers have hit the ball well of late. Detroit has scored 37 runs in their last five games. 

Pittsburgh is 16-36 in their last 52 games. They are 19-39 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers have Corbin Burnes on the hill here. Burnes has been special this year. He has a fantastic 2.27 ERA. Has he been lucky? No. In fact, he has been a bit unlucky. His xERA is 1.96 and his FIP is a spectacular 1.58 on the season. In Burnes' last 14 starts, if you had bet the Brewers -1.5 in each game you would be 10-4. 

Jon Lester starts for the Cardinals. Lester has been mediocre this year. The Brewers lineup has hit him well. They have a .375 OBP and a .355 wOBA against Lester. 

Burnes has been at his best in his career in the last month of the year, while Lester has actually pitched worse late in the regular season.

The Brewers have a clear bullpen advantage in this one once the starters are out as well. 

The Cardinals have hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching. Burnes is an elite righty. 

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* I'm going to make Jesus Luzardo prove it. Luzardo had been absolutely awful for a long period of time before spinning a gem in his last start against the Reds. Cincinnati has been struggling bad against lefties in general of late, and Luzardo has a really poor track record this year. For the year, Luzardo has a 7.19 ERA and a 5.92 FIP. He carried a 6.52 ERA in eight starts at Triple A this year as well. He is walking 4.61 batters per nine innings (way too high) and allowing 2.17 HR's per nine innings.

The Phillies are much better against lefties than right handed pitching. Philadelphia is 17th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against righties. They are 8th in wOBA against lefties. Luzardo is a below average lefty. 

Philadelphia comes into this game as winners of 6 games in a row. They are just 2 games back in the NL East and they are very much alive in the NL Wildcard race as well. Kyle Gibson has made 5 starts as a member of the Phillies and 4 of them have been very good starts. The one bad start was against the Dodgers. The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in baseball, and I think Gibson can pitch well here.

Lay the juice with the team with more to play for and with the much better pitcher.

Take Philadelphia. 

*4 Star Play Over* We have two teams who are much better against left handed pitching. The Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Phillies rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. The two teams are only 12th and 18th against right handers. Both will be up against a subpar left handed starter in this contest.

Patrick Corbin has a 7.26 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 8 of his last 10 starts. He has allowed a ridiculous 2.70 HR's per nine innings. Corbin's control has been poor and hitters are making him pay.

Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.70 FIP this year. Moore has an 8.02 ERA at home this year, so I don't even know if it is a good thing for him that this game is in Philly.

Neither bullpen is very good and both of these bullpens have been used heavily in recent days. Both of these starters have blowup potential so the bullpens might be needed for a long time.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners and scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds -1.5* The Cincinnati Reds have been playing good baseball lately. They laid an egg yesterday in a 6-1 loss to the Marlins, but they get a great shot to bounce back with a win on Sunday. 

Jesus Luzardo is fade material right now. Luzardo has been bad all year, but some thought he might look better in the National League. Luzardo had been bad even at Triple A in Oakland earlier in the year. Luzardo has now started five games for the Marlins. He has walked 17 batters in 22.1 innings. He has a 9.67 ERA and a 6.84 FIP in those five starts.

The Reds need to keep the Wild Card lead over the Padres. They have Tyler Mahle starting here. Mahle has been very good this year, and he has been at his best on the road. Mahle has a 1.84 ERA and a wOBA of .252 on the road this year.

A great opportunity for the Reds to get back in the win column against a starting pitcher who is struggling badly.

Take Cincinnati -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb has been tremendous this season. He is pitching his best at the end of the season. Webb has a whopping 12 straight starts with 2 runs allowed or less. Webb has a 1.82 ERA in that time and a great 2.72 FIP as well. 

Huascar Ynoa has a 2.15 ERA at home this year. Ynoa is a highly rated prospect who has come in and thrown the ball well for the Braves right away this year. 

The Giants are without Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt right now. San Francisco ranks a mediocre 13th in wOBA on the road. The Braves are without Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna. They rank 12th in wOBA at home. 

A total this high with two solid starters and two shorthanded offenses. The two bullpens are both solid and pretty well rested also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have taken advantage of weak opponents this year. Milwaukee is 40-12 in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. They are also 40-19 in their last 59 road games. 

The Minnesota Twins have played slightly better of late, but this is a Twins team that is far better against right handed pitching than lefties. They are a top ten team in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 19th in wOBA against left handed pitching this year. Minnesota is 11-28 in their last 39 games vs. a left handed starter.

Eric Lauer and Andrew Albers are both subpar lefties. The Brewers have the much better bullpen and Josh Hader should be ready to go for this one after not pitching yesterday. 

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are a mediocre team. The Cardinals lineup has really disappointed in the last couple months against left handed pitching. While they sit just behind Detroit in wOBA against left handed pitching for the year, they are a bottom 8 team in the majors in wOBA in the last two months against lefties. 

Tarik Skubal is a really highly touted prospect. He's a guy who dominated in the minors and he has a bright future ahead of him. Skubal has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in his last three starts overall. He's throwing the ball very well coming into this game. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a game since June. This Cardinals lineup enters this game very cold.

Jon Lester starts for the Cardinals. Lester has a 5.46 ERA and a 5.40 FIP on the season. He has walked 9 batters in his last 20 innings. He has also allowed 4 runs or more in three of his last four starts despite not finishing six innings in any of those starts. 

The Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a left handed starter. Detroit has played well after a lousy first month of the season. This team continues to fight hard and they have been a great bet as an underdog this year.

I see this as a total coin flip game, and we are getting a big plus money price. Take the price.

Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Month* Jesus Luzardo has been absolutely awful this year. He has been even worse of late. Luzardo certainly has talent and there is always a chance he puts it together at any point, but his form is terrible now. Luzardo has a 7.76 ERA and a 6.23 FIP on the year. He had a 6.52 ERA in Triple A in 8 starts. Luzardo has walked 13 batters in his last 12 innings pitched. He is allowing 2.26 homers per nine innings on the year. A terrible combination. 

Washington ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Nationals are up against a struggling lefty in Luzardo here and they should fare well. 

Erick Fedde has a 4.60 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. His second half ERA? 6.14 in his career. Not good at all. 

Both of these bullpens have struggled of late, and there should be plenty of base runners on the paths throughout this game. Luzardo's four starts with the Marlins have seen a whopping 64 runs scored in total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Rockies are 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks are 9th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. How do this teams do against right handed pitching? The Rockies are 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties. The DBacks are 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Jon Gray is a rare starter who actually has pitched better at home at Coors Field than he has away from Coors Field. Gray is in good form coming into this game. The DBacks have a batting average on balls in play of a whopping .355 (very lucky) in the past 13 games, but they have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of those 13 contests.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire based on his strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently year over year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. They are 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Sean Manaea has been up and down this year, but he is an above average lefty who has pitched pretty well at home in his career. 

Kevin Gausman has been really good for the Giants this year. Gausman has a 2.40 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season. The Oakland A's offense is middle of the road and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire behind home plate here, and that is a clear positive for the under. According to my umpire database, this is a guy who has consistently ranked in top 10 in strikes called- and he is a top six or under umpire in the majors.

In the past month these two teams are 2nd and 4th in bullpen ERA. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers have Walker Buehler on the mound here. He has allowed 4 runs in his last 33 and 1/3 innings pitched. Buehler has consistently been very good late in the season. He is in great form again late this season. He goes up against a Mets lineup that is without Lindor and Baez right now.

Carlos Carrasco comes into this game in terrible form. The Dodgers just scored six runs off him in just 2 innings pitched in New York in his last start. Carrasco has allowed 10 runs in just 3 innings in his last two starts. This is a guy that isn't fooling anyone of late.

Don't look now but the Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 games. Yes the Dodgers are somewhat banged up too, but this is a good lineup still and they have an elite starter on the hill here. These two teams are headed in different directions.

Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres have definitely gotten desperate for some pitching help. They decided to sign Jake Arrieta to a contract. How has Arrieta pitched this year? He has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.12 FIP. In his last three starts with the Cubs, Arrieta allowed 27 hits and 14 runs in just 12 innings pitched. Arrieta isn't good at all, and the Rockies can mash at home.

Chi Chi Gonzalez makes  the start for the Rockies. Gonzalez is a fade pitcher for me to start with, and he is coming off the COVID list and is still trying to recover. He will be on a pitch count and then things will be handed over to the terrible Rockies bullpen. 

The temperature is expected to be 95 degrees at game time here. The ball really flies well at Coors in this kind of weather. Day games at Coors in hot weather have been great to over bettors in the last several years.

David Rackley is the home plate umpire. The over is 125-94 in his career games behind the plate.

I never go into a handicap wanting to bet over 14 since it is such a high number, but this one is justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants have been very good offensively of late, but they have had at least some good fortune. San Francisco has a batting average on balls in play of .353 in the last seven days. The Mets have a BABIP of .322 as well so they have been fortunate on offense also (and even then they haven't scored consistently). 

Marcus Stroman has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.45 FIP on the season. Stroman has a much better ERA and FIP late in the season in his career, and he has been pitching well of late. 

Logan Webb has been fantastic at home this year. Webb has a 1.58 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home. Webb has thrown 10 straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less. Needless to say, Webb has been tremendous for San Francisco.

The Giants rank in the top five in bullpen ERA in the past month. The Mets are in the middle of the pack. This is still a pitcher's park and Rehak (home plate umpire) is a good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The LA Angels are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. The Angels have been outmatched in each of the first two games in this series and I think they'll be outmatched again in the final game of this series.

Lance McCullers Jr. has racked up 8 strikeouts or more in six of his last seven games. McCullers is having arguably the best season of his career so far this year. He goes up against an Angels offense that is severely shorthanded. The Astros have bettered their bullpen since the trade deadline as well.

Houston is the best offense in the majors. They have been even better against left handed pitching of late. The Angels start Reid Detmers, a rookie left hander. Detmers has struggled badly in his first two starts. He has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings pitched. Detmers has a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the park. He allowed 1.67 HR's per nine innings in Double A this year, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact in the majors.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester isn't good at all anymore. Lester has a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.57 ERA on the year. His FIP sits at 5.50 on the season. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is averaging only 5.99 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a really bad combination. 

Brad Keller has a 5.79 ERA and an xERA of 6.64. Keller just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. He has walked four batters or more in four of his last eight starts. 

The Cardinals offense has woken up a bit of late. They are slowly getting healthier. 

The Royals offense has been better at home this year, and they are better against lefties. Both of these teams have questionable bullpens that have been used pretty heavily of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Chicago Cubs traded away nearly all of their key hitters and their closer at the deadline. Willson Contreras is the biggest name hitter left on this team and he is injured. Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward are also injured right now.

Alzolay pitched well earlier in the year, but he has been really bad of late. Alzolay has a 5.90 ERA and a 6.21 FIP in his last ten starts. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. They have been favored in five of those games.

Jesus Luzardo has a high upside but has been inconsistent. He faces a much weakened Cubs lineup here. The Cubs have a bottom 3 offense in all of baseball in their current state. 

The Marlins bullpen has been a top ten bullpen in baseball this year. The Cubs have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball in the past month. 

The Cubs have won one game so far in the month of August. They haven't even been competitive of late. They are coming off a 10-0 and 17-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Teams off blowout losses have been good fades in the second half of the MLB season over the long run.

Take Miami here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been a top five offense this year against left handed pitching. They will face Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal has allowed a ton of hard contact this year. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in barrel rate. He has allowed a whopping 45.8% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. Baltimore should scoring chances here. 

Detroit will go up against Matt Harvey. He has been all over the place this year. He has had some absolutely awful games, and he has had some pretty solid games. We know by his advanced metrics he isn't good. He's pitching in a very hitter friendly park here too. His numbers at home this year are much worse than on the road.

Orioles pitching has allowed a whopping 54 runs in their last 5 games! They have allowed 9 runs or more in each of those contests. Both of these bullpens have been struggling a lot of late.

Warm weather in the upper 80's with the wind blowing out about 10 mph helps here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Baltimore Orioles have been able to hit left handed pitching well this year, but they have been awful against right handed pitching. Casey Mize is a pretty good young right handed starter for the Tigers. He had success against Baltimore a few games ago, and I think he can have success again here. 

The Detroit Tigers started the year poorly against lefties, but they have been crushing lefties of late. Detroit had the worst wOBA against lefties in the first month, but they have been a top 12 team against lefties in the last two months. Keegan Akin has an ERA of nearly 8 and he has really struggled in the starter role. 

Detroit is 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day. The Tigers have been an above .500 team since May. Baltimore has gotten worse and worse as the season has gone on. The Orioles are 13-38 in their last 51 against a right handed starter. They are 23-56 in their last 79 games. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Giants ML* The San Francisco bats came alive last night. After a predictable loss on Friday in a bad spot, the Giants hung in game 2 Saturday and put up 7 runs in extra innings for a win. We like that momentum heading into Sunday. San Francisco will start Johnny Cueto (3.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 98.2 innings). Cueto has struggled somewhat over the summer but generally he has solid command. His xERA and FIP marks in the 4.50 area demonstrate his mid-tier caliber.

The Brewers will send out Brett Anderson (3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 68.2 innings). Anderson has been exceptional in his last 5 starts of the summer, averaging a 1.40 ERA over the last 20 innings. Still, nothing in his profile or from our eye test tells us that Anderson is that much better than Cueto (especially considering Anderson's 6.09 xERA). Meanwhile, I'm confident the Giants own the better offense. Rated in the top 5 in most major offensive categories this season (wOBA, slugging %, homeruns, etc.) and top 10 in offense the past 2 weeks, I'm inclined to believe that San Francisco's bats will continue to experience positive regression after their performance last night. With no real advantage on either side on the mound, the Giants are the better team and we get them at a reduced price. The Giants are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 3 of a series.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play on the Giants/Brewers under 8* Two teams predicated on superb pitching enter game two of this contentious series between two NL elites. The Brewers took game 1, limiting the away-team Giants to only 1 run behind an exceptional 7 innings from Corbin Burnes. Now Milwaukee will send out their other ace in Brandon Woodruff ((2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 131.1 innings). Woodruff needs little introduction. The 28 year old still boasts the best WHIP in baseball and owns an impressive 0.69 HR/9 innings rate, an 80.2% LOB rate, and xERA/FIP/xFIP marks all under 3.00. He's experienced a little regression in June and July but overall his command remains intact and he's terrific at preventing big slugs, something teams like San Francisco thrive off of (over the last 30 days the Giants are slugging .446 over and they're 2nd overall with 39 home-runs).

Making a start in place of Anthony DeScalfani, Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33.1 innings) will take the mound for the Giants Saturday. Recently off the IL, Sanchez looked crisp in his first start Tuesday against Arizona, throwing for 3 scoreless innings and only permitting 1 hit. One bad game against the Rockies at Coors Field back in May has inflated some of his numbers but Sanchez has looked really good overall. His short season has displayed his ability, like Woodruff, to limit power-hitting lineups and keep runners on base. Both the Giants and Brewers have experienced an offensive explosion the last few weeks but lately they're bats have cooled off. The under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

I expect another pitcher's duel tonight-- take the under. 

*3 Star Play on the Yankees -1.5* The Yankees are finally starting to look like the dangerous and talent-heavy playoff team they're built to be. Winners of 6 of their last 7 games (5 of which were by 2 runs or more), New York is finally starting to gain some traction as they look to overtake the AL East. The Seattle Mariners come into today's matchup still in the postseason race but the reality is rather grim. They're last in MLB in batting average and their rotation is weak. Now they find themselves in the Bronx against a surging Yankees squad. To make matters more challenging, they'll start Tyler Anderson (4.39 ERA, 4.28 FIP, over 108.2 innings). The journeyman who started the 2021 season with Pittsburgh faces a more nerve-racking role in Seattle with a team still in contention. A road game against a rallying NYY team won't make that any easier. I don't like Anderson's pedestrian velocity or his awful HR allowance (2.07 HR/9 innings) against a power-hitting Yankees lineup. Nestor Cortes (1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over 32.2 innings) gets his second start today for NYY. He looked really good in his first start against Tampa, allowing only 1 run and 3 hits in 5 innings. Previously a reliever, Cortes has the skill and dynamism to have real success as part of the NYY rotation. Both teams are suffering from some injuries but it hasn't seemed to bother the Yankees, especially with new additions Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo holding up their bats. New York is 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

Take the Yankees -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on the Marlins +1.5 (-125)* This is another good spot for Miami and unfortunately another bad one for the Mets, who are quickly losing their grip on the NL East. Carlos Carrasco had a solid 4 innings with New York in his first showing on the mound last week, but the 34 year old is likely still working through the kinks of his game and should be on a pitch count.

Meanwhile, Miami is starting Zach Thompson (2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP over 38.2 innings), who has been sensational in his short season. Thompson has also shown excellent command, limiting big slugs (0.70 HR/9 innings) and maintaining an LOB rate over 75%. With his dynamic ability to strikeout batters, his numbers show he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball since his debut. Miami is at home and the Mets can’t seem to solve their puzzle, losing 4 straight to the team from South Beach.

Take the Marlins to keep this close. Take Miami +1.5. 

*3 Star Play Mariners/Rays over 9* The Mariners' pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 runs over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it's hard to like their chances against anyone right now. Seattle's Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn't have the worst numbers. He's a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he's pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings.

Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who's far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha's profile isn't very promising-- his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing home runs (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he's due for some negative regression.

Both offenses are at an advantage today. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo started the season pitching terribly, but he has righted the ship in a big way of late. Castillo has a 1.71 ERA and a 2.93 FIP since the start of June. 

He faces a Cubs lineup without Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo today. The Cubs are in a state of flux. There are certainly going to be some deals made to get rid of some Cubs players very soon. That is never a great situation to be in.

Joey Votto is absolutely raking of late. He has 7 home runs in the last five games. The Reds offense overall is hitting it well with Jesse Winker and Kyle Farmer swinging it very well also.

Cincinnati upgraded their bullpen a lot this week and that was their single biggest weakness. They now have a better bullpen than the Cubs.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday afternoon. Blake Snell starts for San Diego while Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A's. It's a battle of lefties and that is important for totals bettors here.

San Diego ranks 9th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. They rank 17th in the majors against left handed pitching. Oakland ranks 14th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's rank 21st in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Both Snell and Manaea are quality lefties. These two can have some trouble with walks at times, but with Ryan Blakney as the home plate umpire that is a positive. He is one of the better under umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio is excellent for under bettors. 

These get away day games often have a key batter or two missing from the lineup for a day off. Both of these bullpens are very high quality as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last 30 days. Washington ranks first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers. They are up against Matt Moore who is clearly a subpar left handed pitcher. Moore has a 5.79 ERA and a 5.68 FIP this year. He has had a 5.52 ERA or higher in his last three seasons in the majors. Not good. 

Erick Fedde starts for Washington and his ERA is 8.71 in his last five starts. His FIP during that time is 5.96 as well. He is struggling with control in that time (5.23 walks per nine innings). The Phillies have a solid lineup and they have been better at home offensively.

A game time temperature of 88 degrees with light winds blowing out at about 6 mph is another plus. 

Both bullpens have been a mess for much of the season. There should be plenty of base runners throughout this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have won the first two games of this series. I understand that can make some bettors cautious about wagering on them in game three when they are playing another good team. In this case though, I'm going to lay the price with Milwaukee.

The Chicago White Sox aren't even close to full strength right now. The White Sox are at .500 on the season on the road, and they are without many key guys in the lineup. The bullpen is shorthanded right now as well, and in the last month this bullpen has actually been a bottom six unit in the majors. 

The Milwaukee Brewers start Brandon Woodruff here. Woodruff has been underrated for too long now. Woodruff is so consistently very good. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and a 2.68 xERA. His FIP is 2.70. Woodruff is only allowing 25.3% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. 

Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox. He's certainly a very good starter too. He isn't quite on Woodruff's level though. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA, but his FIP is 3.28. Lynn has a 100% left on base percentage in 6 of his last 9 games. That is definitely fortunate and it will be hard to keep that up.

The Brewers strong back of the bullpen is well rested.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The San Francisco Giants have been tremendous this year when it comes to bouncing back from losses. The Giants were upset by the Pirates in game one of this series. Pittsburgh has been terrible on the road this year. The Pirates were actually swept by Arizona in the series before this, and they were beaten by a score of 21-12 in that series.

The Giants start Kevin Gausman here. Gausman has allowed more than 2 runs in only two starts this year. Gausman's splitter has been as nasty as ever. He has held this Pirates lineup to a very low .274 wOBA in his career. 

Will Crowe has a FIP of 6 or higher in 6 of his last 9 starts. He hasn't completed 6 innings in any of his last 10 starts. The Pirates bullpen has been worn out of late. 

The Giants are 38-14 in their last 52 as a home favorite. The Pirates are 22-63 in their last 85 road games.

Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 7 straight games. The oddsmakers haven't quite caught on to their improvement fully just yet. Detroit has a lot of good young players who are really coming into their own. 

Detroit struggled badly with left handed pitching in the first month of the season, but they rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties since that time. Detroit was excellent against lefties last year, and it is once again looking like a strength of this lineup. 

Kris Bubic is a lefty who has been crushed in 3 of his last 4 outings. Bubic is walking nearly 5 batters per nine innings, and that hurts a lot against big league hitters. He also has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.85 FIP. His xERA is 5.86 as well. If anything, Bubic has been lucky this year.

Wily Peralta is no great pitcher by any means, but he does have a solid 3.58 xERA on the season. The Royals lineup isn't very good against right handed pitching.

The Royals are 15-36 in their last 51 vs. a right handed starter. The Royals are 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. I have to fade a favorite like Kansas City against a team playing well.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have won 6 games in a row. More importantly to me though, this Detroit team is 37-27 since May 8. This isn't a total fluke that Detroit is getting better. The Tigers have some young talent that is coming of age. This is a team that is still playing very hard as well. 

Texas is going the opposite direction and quickly. The Rangers are winless in their games since the All Star Break. They have lost by a combined score of 47-5 in their games since the break. That's hard to believe, but it is true. Texas ranks dead last in wOBA in the past two weeks and this team is just a mess right now.

Mike Foltynewicz comes into this game in terrible form. Foltynewicz allowed 10 runs in 1 and 2/3 innings in his last start. He has a 5.91 ERA and a 6.14 FIP on the season.

Tyler Alexander has a decent 4.40 ERA and a 4.36 FIP this year. The Tigers bullpen has been much better in recent weeks as well.

Texas is a ridiculous 16-55 in their last 71 road games. They are 17-43 in their last 60 games overall. The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers started the season slowly, but they have played at above .500 since after their first month. This is a young team that does have a bright future. Detroit is playing like a team that really wants to win right now.

I can't say the same about the Texas Rangers. Texas has been outscored by 40 runs since the All Star Break. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games overall. Texas is 16-54 in their last 70 road games. The Rangers are a mess right now. Texas is about to deal a couple of their better players as well.

The Rangers send Jordan Lyles to the mound and he has been really bad all year. Lyles has allowed a really high 42.2% hard hit rate. Detroit is 11th in the majors in wOBA since the first month of the season. The Tigers offense has actually been pretty good of late. The Rangers are 30th in wOBA since the first month of the season.

Teams headed in totally different directions.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles rank 26th in the majors in wOBA on the road this year. The Tampa Bay Rays rank 20th in wOBA at home this year.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently been a very solid under umpire. He has above average strikes called and strikeout/walk percentages. 

John Means returns for the Orioles here. Tampa Bay has a bottom five offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Means is clearly an above average left handed pitcher. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries in their lineup right now as well.

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays. The Orioles crushed left handed pitching earlier this year, but they have cooled off dramatically against lefties in the past month. Tampa Bay has a strong bullpen with good depth behind McClanhan as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Minnesota Twins are a mess. Minnesota has a ton of injuries and the Twins have been arguably the biggest disappointment in all of baseball this year. 

Detroit started the season very slowly, but quietly the Tigers have a record over .500 if you exclude the first month of the season. The Tigers crushed left handed pitching last year. They started slow against lefties this year, but they have been hitting lefties hard in the last couple months.

J.A. Happ has an ERA of 8.00 in his last 11 starts. Happ is allowing a whopping 2.5 home runs per nine innings in that time. In 7 of those 11 starts he has allowed 4 runs or more. In 8 of those 11 starts he has gone 5 innings or less. Happ has been really bad of late.

Wily Peralta is far from a great starter, but he has a nice 2.08 ERA and a 3.44 xERA in 26 innings this year. 

The Twins are 17-27 on the road this year. Minnesota is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. The Tigers are 23-22 at home on the season.

I'll grab the plus money price.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) at home. They have a .283 wOBA at home this year. They are up against Patrick Sandoval here. 

Sandoval struggled quite a bit early on in the majors, but he was a highly touted prospect and he has pitched much better of late. Sandoval has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 16.8% so far this year. 

Chris Flexen has been great at home this year. Flexen starts for the Mariners here. Flexen has a 1.99 ERA in 54 and 1/3 innings at home this year. He has a ridiculous .240 wOBA allowed. This is a pitcher's park and Flexen has taken advantage. While the Angels usually have a good offense, they are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon right now.

Kerwin Danley has been a good under umpire through the years and this is a fairly high total for a game in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds rank as a top five offense against right handed pitching. They also rank as a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. They are up against a lefty in Eric Lauer here.

Wade Miley starts for the Reds, and he has been solid this year. Miley has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.24 FIP on the season. He has a tremendous .244 wOBA allowed on the road this season. The Brewers offenses is middle of the road against lefties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. Eddings has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a clear positive for under bettors.

The under is 34-16-2 in the Brewers last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. an NL Central foe.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been consistently very good this year. Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA in the past 14 days. The White Sox are noted as being excellent against lefties, but they have been hitting everyone lately. Chicago also has a strong bullpen.

Baltimore does hit left handers much better than right handers. That is the primary reason why this line is relatively cheap on the White Sox. Still, Baltimore has been terrible in the past couple months after starting the season playing fairly competitively. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games overall. Baltimore is 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. 

The White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 as a favorite. Dallas Keuchel isn't the star he was in the past, but he is still a bit better pitcher than Jorge Lopez. The Orioles bullpen has bottom ten numbers in the majors in the past 60 days after starting the season well. This is too low of a price on the White Sox.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan Montgomery starts for the Yankees here. Montgomery has been good at home throughout his career. Montgomery has a 3.36 ERA and a 0.278 wOBA when pitching at home. In his career on the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and a 0.331 wOBA allowed. The Seattle offense isn't particularly good, but they have improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this season. There are too many solid hitters in this lineup for them to struggle all season long. They have shown signs of improved in the last few games. Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle in this one. Gilbert has a 5.63 ERA at home so far this season. 

Both starting pitchers are capable of giving up a fairly big number here. I see two offenses improving, and with this low total, I like the chances for this to go over the total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite as good as his numbers look so far this year. Lopez has major splits from the beginning of the season to the end of the season in his career. He is strong in the first two or three months of the year, and then he really falls off a lot from July through the end of the year. In fact, his ERA is over 6 in his career in July. 

Lopez is up against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball well. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last five games. The Dodgers sat out Bellinger, Muncy, and Betts last night. That means we should get the best guys in the lineup on Tuesday night. 

Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers here. While he has been pretty good, he doesn't pitch very deep into games and the Dodgers middle relief is their biggest weakness. Miami does have some power in the middle of the order and they should get some chances here.

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire here. Torres has one of the five lowest strikes called percentages in the majors in the past two years. His strikeout/walk ratio also shows he is a tough umpire for the pitchers. He has a small strike zone.

This number is awfully low for a hot Dodgers offense being involved.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies start Vince Velasquez here. Velasquez is a below average right handed starter. He has always had drastic splits in day/night games. Velasquez has a career ERA of an ugly 5.40 in day games. His ERA last year in day games was 8.10 and this year it is 7.23. Velasquez gives up too many home runs and the ball can fly really well in Philly on warm days. 

Blake Snell has a 10.36 ERA on the road this year. That is 33 runs allowed in less than 29 innings. Opponents have a ridiculous .442 OBP against him on the road. He clearly isn't that bad, but Snell has struggled away from pitcher friendly San Diego. Snell faces a Philly offense that ranks 10th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The San Diego Padres rank 5th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Padres have a deep lineup and they have plenty of power in the middle of the order. 

If Velasquez gets out of this game early, the Phillies certainly have bullpen issues as well which can lead to a big number.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both starting pitchers here are capable of getting blasted. Jordan Lyles has typically started season pretty well and fallen apart in the hot summer months. Lyles has a career ERA of a whopping 6.18 in July. Lyles has been struggling all season this year, and his ERA of 5.12 and FIP of 5.07 show exactly that.

Marco Gonzales has a 5.10 ERA this year. His FIP is 5.32 and his xERA is a ridiculous 8.47. Gonzales is struggling with his control a lot more this year again (it was excellent last year after being a problem in the past). 

Texas and Seattle have both swung the bat well of late. Texas has scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 11 games. The Rangers have scores 6 or more in 5 of those 11 games. Seattle has scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 13 games. 

Sean Barber is the home plate umpire here and my umpire database shows that his strikes called percentage and his strikeout/walk ratios continue to be on the very low side. Barber looks like a solid over umpire in the last couple years.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Houston -1.5* The Houston Astros have been a strange team this year. They are clearly a very talented team. They have struggled with bad teams. They were swept at home by the Detroit Tigers earlier this year. They were swept at home recently by the Baltimore Orioles. 

Houston is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are the top ranked team in the league in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left handed pitching. They are up against a weak left hander in Sam Hentges here. Hentges has a 7.32 ERA and a 6.81 xERA. Hentges has started six games. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 3 and 1/3 innings or less in four of those six starts. 

Lance McCullers Jr. has a solid 2.94 ERA and a 3.70 xERA on the season. He is doing a nice job limiting hard contact this year. He strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings as well. 

The Indians offense is a bottom six or eight offense in the majors. They start their worst starting pitcher in this game as well. Houston is elite against lefties.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Rackley is the home plate umpire for this game. The over is a whopping 122-92 in his games behind home plate (57% all time). He has a much smaller strike zone than the average umpire.

Justus Sheffield has been known to struggle to find the plate at times. Sheffield can usually pitch fairly well at home, but his road numbers aren't good at all. He comes into this one throwing the ball poorly of late.

Steven Matz is inconsistent and he is coming off the COVID list for this game. He is expected to be on a 60 pitch or so pitch count. 

Seattle has hit the ball much better of late (top 10 offense in the last two weeks). The Blue Jays have been one of the best offenses in baseball this year.

Sahlen Field is a tremendous hitters park. The Blue Jays have scored 9 runs or more in three of their last five games. They haven't scored less than five runs in any of those games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Jon Lester here. Lester is far past his prime and he has been hurt by the home run in recent years. 

Michael Wacha is expected to start for Tampa Bay. Wacha is wildly inconsistent and this Washington offense has been heating up of late.

The temperature for this game is expected to be 92 degrees with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Day games with that kind of hot weather and wind blowing out have been very good over bets in the past.

Tampa Bay struggles to score at home, but on the road they are a top 10 offense in baseball. Washington has gotten quite the contribution from Kyle Schwarber of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park has shown a strong tendency to have high scoring games in warm weather with the wind blowing out. The over is 105-73 in the last 178 games with a temperature over 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more. Game time temperature here of 83 degrees with winds blowing out at 8 mph certainly help the case for the over.

Brad Keller has been terrible all season. Keller has a 6.39 ERA and a 6.88 xERA this year. He has allowed a ridiculous 45.9% of batted balls this year to be classified as hard hit according to Fangraphs. He isn't fooling anyone. Boston's offense is a top ten offense and they should get to him here.

Nick Pivetta has drastically worse numbers pitching at Fenway compared to on the road this year. Pivetta struggles with the home run ball and Fenway in warm weather definitely plays small. The Royals do have enough power to do some damage here.

Both bullpens have thrown a lot of innings of late. The fatigue factor here is high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez is striking out only 5.15 batters per nine innings. He gives up a lot of long ball and is prone to allowing big innings. It would be easy to assume Gonzalez is just a victim of Coors Field, but that isn't the case. Gonzalez's road numbers have actually been worse than his numbers at home. His career road numbers are a 5.79 ERA and a .343 wOBA allowed. What about this year? Gonzalez has a road ERA of 7.59 and a WOBA allowed of a whopping .404. 

Eric Lauer isn't a very good lefty. While the Rockies can't right handed pitching, they are pretty good against lefties. Lauer has very poor historic numbers against the Rockies as well. Colorado's lineup has an amazing .516 wOBA against him in 73 at bats. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon have both crushed him in the past. 

Both pitchers are more than capable of giving up a big number. In Gonzalez's last 10 games, eight of the ten games have had a total of 12 runs scored in them.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The San Diego Padres are laying a pretty big price on the run line here. This is something that I rarely lay, but I think there is good reason for the Padres to be massive favorites here.

Arizona is 1-20 in their last 21 games. If you had bet the other team on the -1.5 run line in each of Arizona's last 21 games, you would have gone 14-7. 

San Diego is one of the best teams in the National League. Dinelson Lamet is a very good right handed starting pitcher. Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and a 2.78 FIP. He has been sharp in his recent starts. In limited action, Arizona's lineup has a .122 batting average against him.

Merrill Kelly has struggled badly against San Diego. Fernando Tatis Jr. is as hot as anyone in baseball, and Tatis Jr. has 3 home runs off Kelly in just 15 at bats. The Padres lineup overall has a .335 wOBA against Kelly. 

Arizona has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. San Diego has a top five bullpen in baseball. 

This one is a mismatch.

Take San Diego -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee -1.5* The Milwaukee Brewers start Corbin Burnes here. Burnes has a 2.62 ERA and a ridiculous 1.13 FIP on the season. Burnes has 12 walks and 108 strikeouts. He has an amazing 17.6% swinging strike rate. 

Colorado ranks last in the majors in every major offensive category when they are playing on the road. The Rockies have a team weighted on base average of .255. No other team in the majors has a road wOBA of worse than .276. Colorado's offense is just awful on the road. They are now up against a tremendous starter in Burnes.

Jon Gray returns from the injured list to start for the Rockies. Gray can be a solid pitcher, but he's coming back from an injury and only managed 62 pitches in his final rehab start. He's expected to be on a pitch count here. The Rockies bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in baseball, and they'll likely be in the game for quite a while here.

This one is a mismatch and I'll take the run line.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is worst in the majors in offense on the road this year? The answer is the Colorado Rockies, and it isn't even close. Colorado has an overall team weighted on base average on the road of .254. The second worst team on the road is Pittsburgh at .276. Wow. The Rockies lineup is extremely weak this year and they have banged up quite a bit as well. Seattle is clearly a pitchers park.

Seattle ranks second last in the majors in wOBA at home this year. The Mariners have won a lot of low scoring on their home field. German Marquez is the Rockies ace and he has five great starts in his last six starts.

Justus Sheffield has been much better at home than on the road in his career. 

This is a get away day game and that is a plus for the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff is very underrated. He's coming off a subpar start at Coors Field, but nearly everyone struggles at Coors Field. Even with that bad start at Coors Field, Woodruff has a stunning 1.59 ERA and a .170 weighted on base average away from home this year. In his career, his numbers are much better on the road than at home. 

He'll be at Chase Field (with the roof closed) on Wednesday afternoon. Carson Kelly is out with an injury for Arizona and Ketel Marte left last night's game with an injury and is questionable here. The Diamondbacks are very weak against right handed pitching.

Milwaukee's lineup hasn't been very good in recent weeks. The Brewers face Caleb Smith who has been in pretty good form of late.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is clearly an under umpire through the last few seasons.

This is a get away day game and those have been more to the under in the long run. There are likely to be a couple key guys out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee* I'm not going to overthink this one. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games. They have lost 17 games in a row! They aren't quite this bad, but they are terrible. 

Milwaukee is in the battle at the top of the NL Central. The Brewers have an improving offense and a good bullpen. Brett Anderson is a middle of the road pitcher. Some are likely betting Arizona because they are better against left handed pitching. That hasn't gotten them far though. Arizona is 8-26 in their last 34 against a left handed starter. 

Merrill Kelly is a subpar pitcher and he's backed by a bad bullpen. Arizona's Carson Kelly was one of their hitters doing pretty well and now he is injured as well. There isn't much positive to say about the DBacks. They are finding ways to lose. Most of their games haven't been close either.

The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Lay the very short price here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are an impressive 5th in the majors against lefties. Colorado gets to face a subpar lefty here in Eric Lauer. Lauer has terrible numbers against this Rockies lineup too. They have a .560 wOBA against him in only 53 at bats. A small sample size, but the Rockies have crushed him.

Chi Chi Gonzalez isn't good at all. In his last six starts, he has a 6.86 ERA and a 5.91 FIP. Gonzalez doesn't induce soft contact, and he also doesn't miss bats. It's a really bad combination for a starting pitcher. The Brewers bats woke up a bit last night, and I like their matchup against Gonzalez and a poor Rockies bullpen here.

Day games at Coors Field in hot temperatures have been great to over bettors in the long run. The high temperature here is scheduled to be about 89 degrees during this game. 

Both teams should score plenty here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kansas City hosts Boston on Sunday afternoon and the weather here should play a role in this game. A high temperature of 94 degrees with sustained winds blowing out to center field of 16 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph are in the forecast.

Nate Eovaldi is a solid pitcher, but this Kansas City lineup is deeper than most people realize. The Boston bullpen is also worn down right now.

Mike Minor isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. Minor goes up against a Boston lineup that has scored 30 runs in their last four contests. 

The wind matters more in Kansas City than most ballparks. At Kaufman Stadium with a temperature of 89 degrees and wind blowing out 7 mph or more, the over is 26-10 in the last 36 contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Walker Buehler has pitched a shutout in each of his last two starts. Buehler has thrown 13 innings and allowed only 7 hits and no runs in those games. He started the season a bit slowly, but Buehler has a history of getting better as the season goes on. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they are a bottom six offense in baseball against right handed pitching. Buehler is one of the better starters in the majors and he should make it tough on them.

The Dodgers certainly have a very good offense, but they are a bit banged up right now. Matt Peacock has been up and down thus far in the majors, but he does have solid control.

Chase Field will have the roof closed here and that is good for under bettors. Even better for under bettors is the fact that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in Major League Baseball over the last eight years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Giants -1.5* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 2-17 in their last 19 games. To say that this team is bad and they are tanking is an understatement. 

The San Francisco Giants crushed them with a late inning comeback last night. Arizona was up big in the early going, and it looked like the Diamondbacks would finally pick up a win. Instead, it was San Francisco coming from behind to pick up another key win. That game could take quite a bit out of Arizona.

Anthony DeSclafani has only allowed more than 3 runs in one of his 13 starts this year. DeSclafani is a guy who has given up a lot of long balls in the past in his career, but pitching in San Francisco has really helped with the pitcher friendly home park. Also, Arizona's hitters have a terrible .197 OBP against DeSclafani overall. 

Merrill Kelly is a subpar starter who is coming off a minor injury. 

The Giants are 23-6 in their last 29 as a home favorite. Getting this kind of plus money against a terrible team is my look.

Take San Francisco -1.5.

*3 Star Play on Oakland ML* The LA Angels are without Mike Trout. That's obviously a massive loss. They are also expected to be without Anthony Rendon here. Rendon has a triceps injury and was expected to miss at least a couple days (Tuesday was his first day out). 

Trout and Rendon are elite hitters, especially against left handed pitching. Cole Irvin is a decent left handed pitcher. The Angels stats against left handed pitching this year are pretty good, but without those two stars the numbers would get a lot worse quickly. 

Griffin Canning has been much worse in the first half of the season than the second half in his career. He also has been worse on the road. 

Oakland is 110-49 in their last 159 games as a home favorite. They are 19-8 in their last 27 games against the Angels.

Take Oakland. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Tampa Bay is 6th in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Chicago White Sox are first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays here. This is the toughest test he has faced this year. He has struggled with the long ball, and Chicago certainly has power hitters through the lineup. 

Dallas Keuchel isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. Keuchel has a 4.14 ERA and a 6.03 xERA. Keuchel has an extremely low 5.15 strikeouts per nine innings on the year. 

The wind is blowing out in Chicago for this one and I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

The over is 22-9-1 in the Rays last 32 road games. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Brewers -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are a very weak team. They actually started out the year playing better than expected, but they have been worse of late. Pittsburgh has lost five straight games. Four of those five losses have been by two runs or more.

Milwaukee starts Corbin Burnes here and to say he has been amazing this year is an understatement. Burnes has a 1.97 ERA. It's a fluke right? No. His xERA is 1.37 and his FIP is a ridiculous 0.97. Burnes has started 10 games this year and he hasn't had a single game FIP of worse than 2.82 all year. 

Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates and he has always struggled in the first half of the season. Kuhl has a 4.77 ERA in the first half of the season (3.96 in the second half) in his career. Kuhl has a 5.61 ERA this year and his SIERA is a career high 5.68 on the year thus far.

The Brewers have a massive advantage at starting pitcher, and they are at least even in the bullpen (better at the back end). Milwaukee also ranks 3rd in the majors in defensive runs saved. The Pirates are 20th.

A mismatch here.

Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles now rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. It's quite the surprise, but Baltimore has consistently been very good against even high quality lefties this year.

The over is 7-0 in Baltimore's last 7 vs. a left handed starter. 

While Yarbrough is a quality pitcher, he has actually been far worse at home than on the road in his career. Yarbrough has a 4.48 ERA at home and a 3.46 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average in his career at home is .316 compared to just .281 on the road.

Akin for the Orioles has a 2.92 ERA at home and a 5.57 ERA on the road in his career. His wOBA allowed at home is just .253, but on the road it is .361. 

This is an awfully low total considering these numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox are 40-14 in their last 54 games vs. a left handed starter. The White Sox are also 40-15 in their last 55 home games. 

Chicago has an amazing .351 weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. Certainly, Ryu is a a very good lefty, but the White Sox have proven more than capable of hitting good lefties during this streak. 

Toronto ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Blue Jays though rank only 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Dallas Keuchel is no longer a great pitcher, but he is generally good at keeping the ball down and that should help against Toronto's power.

Though the White Sox did blow a late lead yesterday, Chicago clearly has the better of the two bullpens here.

At plus money here, I have to side with the south siders who have a proven record against lefties.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins -1.5* Chi Chi Gonzalez is a clear fade starting pitcher in my book. Trevor Rogers is a starting pitcher I like to back. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez is striking out only 4.66 batters per nine innings. It's hard to be good with that low of a strikeout ratio, especially when you aren't good at inducing soft contact. Gonzalez has a 4.84 ERA and an xERA of 5.79. He puts too many guys on base and will work with a lot of traffic on a consistent basis over the year. 

Trevor Rogers has a 1.97 ERA and a 2.99 xERA. He also has a stellar 2.49 FIP. Rogers is striking out 10.62 batters per nine innings. He has a couple elite strikeout pitches. 

The Rockies offense ranks as the worst in the majors on the road. The Rockies are 5-23 on the road. Of their 23 road losses, 17 have been by 2 runs or more. 

The Marlins have a big bullpen advantage here as well and that could be important in this one.

Take Miami -1.5

*3 Star Play Over* The over is 23-10 in the Angels 33 road games this year. Last year when Angel Stadium ranked 5th in park factor (a major hitters park) some wondered if it was a fluke. It ranks 8th this year so this is clearly a hitter friendly park at this point. It is 4th in home runs per inning in the majors.

Griffin Canning and Brad Keller have both looked worse this year than they have in the last couple years. Canning has an ERA nearly a full run higher in the first half of the season than the second half in his career, so he might improve later in the year. Canning has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.52 FIP this year. 

Keller has a 5.50 ERA and a 6.41 xERA. His FIP is 4.69. Keller has been a major disappointment this year. 

The Angels hit right handed pitching well, even without Mike Trout in the lineup. The Royals sit middle of the pack in wOBA against right handed pitching.

These are two bottom ten bullpens. Neither of these pitchers have been good at pitching deep into the game, and the middle relief here is weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are 4-22 on the road this year. Colorado is now without star Trevor Story, and this offense is arguably the worst in baseball (especially on the road). 

Antonio Senzatela is a strange case in that he actually pitches better at Coors Field than on the road. The Marlins offense has been serviceable at home this year.

Pablo Lopez starts for the Marlins, and Lopez has been an absolute superstar when pitching at home. In his career, Lopez has a 2.78 ERA and a ridiculous .270 wOBA allowed at home. How about this season only? In 36 and 2/3 innings, Lopez has a fantastic 0.98 ERA at home. His wOBA allowed is .225. 

The Rockies have lost 16 games on the road this year by 2 runs or more. They are up against a terrific starter here. The Marlins also have a big bullpen edge.

Take Miami -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Padres and Mets have two of the top five bullpens in baseball. Their depth is really impressive. It has allowed them to limit big innings late in the games in most circumstances.

Chris Paddack has drastic splits at home vs. on the road. He gets to start at home here and he'll be up against the severely shorthanded Mets offense. 

Marcus Stroman goes up against a Padres offense that has scored 4 runs or less in six straight games. They have scored 2 runs or less in four of those six games. 

Tripp Gibson is one of the better under umpires in baseball. The under is 10-1 in his last 11 games behind home plate this year. He consistently has a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Texas Rangers rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Both teams are starting left handed pitchers in this game though. 

How do the two teams look against lefties? The Rays are all the way down at 24th, a big drop from their performance against right handed pitching. Texas is worse as well, sitting at 26th in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Rich Hill started the year pitching poorly, but he has turned that around in a big way of late. Hill has allowed just 3 runs in his last 34 and 2/3 innings pitched. He now goes against a weak Rangers offense. 

Kolby Allard has potential for the Rangers. He hasn't been consistent, but this ballpark has proven to be favorable for pitchers. It ranks almost exactly on par with Petco Park so far this year in park factor. 

Texas is a bad team, but they have a top 10 bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen is deep and solid as they always are.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Luis Castillo is still being priced as a top notch pitcher, but he sure doesn't look like one this year. Castillo's whiff rate and strikeouts per nine innings are the lowest of his career. His xBA is in the 25th percentile of all big league pitchers. 

The Cardinals have smashed Castillo in the past, and that was when he was pitching well. St. Louis' lineup has a great .363 weighted on base average against Castillo. 

Kwang Hyun Kim is a good pitcher who does pitch to contact, but he can induce fairly soft contact. He has a very low walk rate. The Reds lineup isn't the same without Votto and Moustakas. 

Castillo is still being priced the way he was a couple years ago. He hasn't shown that he is deserving of it.

Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in Kansas City on Friday night. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in six straight games. The Royals have scored 42 runs in that time (7 runs per game). They now go up against a pitcher in bad form in Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has 5.90 ERA and a 5.66 FIP on the season. He has been bad. 

Brad Keller has a 5.68 ERA. He has a 6.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. No matter how you look at it, Keller has been bad this year as well.

Both bullpens are below average so there chances for runs late too.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 137-107 in his games behind home plate. 

The weather is a help here too. The wind is blowing out about 10 mph and this stadium has shown strong over trends with the wind blowing out like this. A warm temperature in the low 80's is a positive as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Texas Rangers have been finding ways to lose baseball games. Texas has lost 13 road games in a row. They have lost 7 straight overall.

Colorado isn't a good team. The Rockies always are much better at home than on the road though. Colorado is 17-12 at home on the year. The Rangers are 9-21 on the road. Texas is an ugly 12-40 in their last 52 road games.

With a Rangers team that is this bad, if you are giving me just about anyone against them at this price range on the road it is going to be hard not to look to back them.

Antonio Senzatela has thrown the ball well of late, and his career numbers are actually quite a bit better at Coors Field than on the road. Jordan Lyles had very little success in his time pitching at Coors Field. 

Texas is 27th in the majors in defensive runs saved. Colorado is an impressive second.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The San Francisco Giants continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. The Giants offense has outperformed all expectations. Buster Posey has been fantastic this year. Mike Yastrzemski is back and hitting the ball well. Brandon Crawford has heated up of late as well. 

One thing that has gone overlooked this year is how good the Giants are defensively. San Francisco ranks 2nd in the majors in defensive runs saved. Where are the Angels? They are second worst behind only the Tigers. The Angels have major defensive liabilities. 

Dylan Bundy is a streaky pitcher. He is capable of dominating, but he is also capable of getting crushed. Bundy has allowed 17 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. 

Johnny Cueto is no longer a great pitcher, but Cueto is inducing soft contact and has excellent control. He doesn't allow free passes much at all.

The Giants are 24-6 in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 in San Francisco. The Angels are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. 

Hyeon-Jong Yang starts for the Rangers here. He is a unique lefty who can give some hitters trouble if they haven't seen him. The Mariners haven't seen him. Seattle is a bottom three offense in baseball. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have scored more than 4 runs only once during that time. 

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners here. He has looked like an improved pitcher this year. His walk rate is better and he is getting hitters to chase at more bad balls. The Texas offense is worse against left handed pitching. 

Mahrley is an under umpire behind the plate and this is still a pitchers park in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are a bottom three offense in baseball. In fact, you could argue they are the worst offense in the majors in their current state. Texas is no better than an average offense, and I would say they are slightly worse than the average offense.

Justin Dunn has been a lot better when pitching at home than on the road. Dunn has had some promising starts of late as well. 

Mike Foltynewicz is certainly an up and down pitcher, but he gets to face a team that swings and misses a ton.

Texas has scored 0 runs in 3 of their last 9 games. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. They have only scored more than 4 runs once in that 11 game span.

Tripp Gibson has proven to be a solid under umpire in his time behind the plate. The under is 9-0 in his 9 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk ratio has been much higher than the league average in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night in Cleveland.

The weather should play a big factor in this game. Winds of 20-25 mph blowing in off Lake Erie make the under a very good look here. There is a chance of rain that could be a factor here as well so I'm keeping this play smaller than I would have if it would have been dry. Still, if the game is played this under holds value.

Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last few years. He has great control and induces soft contact at a good rate. The Cleveland offense is one of the worst in baseball.

The Indians are going with a bullpen game here. That isn't a bad thing either since the Indians bullpen has been elite this year. 

The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group so if there are rain delays and Ryu gets pulled early the bullpen should hold their own as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Muchlinski is a solid under umpire. He has called more strikes in the long run than the average umpire by a solid amount. This is a very early get away day game. These kinds of games have been lower scoring on the average in the long run. 

Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are out of the lineup for the Phillies. That is a big hit to this Phillies offense. 

The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in the majors. This is still a favorable park for pitchers as well.

Spencer Howard has a ton of upside and this is a real opportunity for him. 

Pablo Lopez has been amazing at home in his career, and he is having his best year of his career this season. Only one of Lopez's last five starts has gone over this very low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Urena has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.12 xERA on the year. His xBA ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile of all pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.68 xERA. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. How bad has his control been? McKenzie has walked 4 batters or more in all but one start this year. 

Both pitchers come into this game in bad form. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 12-15 mph during this game. Comerica Park has strong over trends with winds blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 or higher and wind out at least 10 mph the over is 49-23-2 in the last 74 at Comerica.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on White Sox -1.5* The Chicago White Sox are 23-3 in their last 26 games against left handed pitching. Chicago has the best weighted on base average against left handed pitching in the majors, and it isn't even close. They'll face Kwang Hyun Kim here. Kim has been good this year, but there are some major regression signs in his profile. Kim has an xBA that is in just the 24th percentile of pitchers. He also has a 2.73 ERA and a 4.59 xERA. Kim will be up against some excellent hitters in this one. 

Lance Lynn has been really solid again this year for the White Sox. Lynn has an xERA in the 89th percentile of all pitchers and an xBA in the 87th percentile of all pitchers. It isn't a fluke that Lynn has such great numbers.

While the Cardinals rank 3rd in the majors in wOBA against lefties, they are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against righties. Lynn is a dominant righty and I think they could struggle here.

Also, the White Sox bullpen is a top five bullpen in the majors. The Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in bullpen xFIP and bullpen SIERA. A big mismatch here.

With the moneyline price so expensive, I'm on the run line here. 

Take the White Sox -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* Justin Dunn's single biggest problem is his walks far too many batters. Dunn is averaging 5.71 walks per nine innings. He ranks in the 9th percentile in the majors when it comes to BB percentage. 

The San Diego Padres draw the third highest percentage of walks of any team in the majors. San Diego has a lot of patient hitters who will make him work here. Dunn also has a career .312 OBP allowed at home and a .343 OBP allowed on the road. 

Yu Darvish starts for San Diego. Darvish has a stellar 1.81 ERA and a very good 2.62 xERA so far this year. He's up against a Seattle lineup that is one of the worst in the majors. Seattle strikes out at the fifth highest rate of any team in the majors. Darvish has a great called plus swinging strike rate of 32.6%. 

The Padres bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA and they are first in xFIP and SIERA as well. It isn't a fluke. Seattle's bullpen is middle of the road.

This one is a mismatch.

Take San Diego -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have Jorge Lopez on the mound here. Lopez has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.69 FIP. He gives up a ton of home runs. Lopez has allowed: 1.96 home runs per 9 innings in 2019, 1.62 HR per nine last year, and 2.12 HR's per nine this year. His career swinging strike rate is only 9.1%. He doesn't fool enough people and the Nationals do have some power in their lineup now that they have gotten healthier.

Stephen Strasburg will be on a pitch count here. Exactly how many he will throw we don't know, but he hasn't thrown any more than 75 in his rehab starts working up to this game. Strasburg has much better numbers in the second half of the season than the first half in his career, and he struggled badly in his first two starts earlier this year. 

With neither of these pitchers expected to pitch deep into the game, the middle relief should show up here. Both of these teams are middle of the road or worse when it comes to their bullpen overall. The weakness for both teams is middle relief where they are lacking depth. 

The game time temperature is a balmy 80 degrees in mid May and the ball should be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller has had a strike percentage higher than the major league average every single season dating back to 2010. He is as consistent as they come at being a strike caller. That alone can't make a game go under the total, but it is a great bonus. 

Dane Dunning is an underrated pitcher. Dunning is due for some positive regression. He has a 4.34 ERA, but all his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than that. His xERA is 3.74 and his FIP is a stunning 2.63. He has an xFIP of 3.18. Dunning has a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate and he has good control.

The Rangers have been no hit twice this year, and this is clearly one of the weakest lineups in baseball. German is a solid pitcher for the Yankees. New York also has a top three bullpen in all of baseball. 

It's an early get away day game and that means there could be a star or two missing from the lineups here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been fantastic this year. He has a 1.84 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.42 FIP. He is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has multiple strikeout pitches. He faces a Phillies lineup that is without Gregorius and Realmuto is questionable with an injury as well. 

Zach Eflin faces the Marlins lineup that ranks third from last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Eflin has a career ERA of 3.98 at home compared to 5.12 on the road. Eflin has a 3.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is 3.24 and his FIP is 3.95. Eflin is a positive regression candidate. 

Jeremie Rehak is the home plate umpire here and his strikes called percentage have consistently shown to be one of the highest of any umpire in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have John Gant on the mound here. Gant has a tremendous 1.83 ERA, but his xERA is 5.16 and his advanced metrics all scream that he is a major regression candidate. Gant has been hit hard on a consistent basis, but he has had batted ball luck and he's been able to strand a lot of runners this season.

J.T. Brubaker is turning into a very solid starter. Brubaker has a very low walk rate. He also gets a lot of guys to swing at bad pitches consistently. Brubaker has a good ERA of 2.58 and his xERA is a solid 3.59. 

The Pirates bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in baseball. The Cardinals bullpen is a bottom six or eight bullpen in baseball. 

I'm getting the better starter and the better bullpen at a nice plus money price.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo. Castillo isn't right this year. He is either hurt or his release point is off. Castillo looks nothing like his old self. He has an ugly ERA. Even his FIP and expected ERA are near 5, so it hasn't been all bad luck. Castillo isn't getting people to chase like he has in the past. He has struggled badly in the first couple innings of the game. Castillo's first half numbers in his career are far worse than his second half numbers (his ERA is nearly a full run worse in the first half). 

Anthony DeSclafani faces his old team here. The Reds offense is without Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas is questionable again here. Eugenio Suarez is in a season long slump as well. DeSclafani has had great command this year. He has been a much better pitcher in the first half of the season in his career. 

The Giants have been underrated by the betting markets. The Reds are far from full strength and even at full strength the Reds are likely a .500 type team. 

Take San Francisco at plus money here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Cincinnati Reds are without Joey Votto right now due to a wrist injury. Votto was having a nice season and he is definitely missed in the middle of the lineup. The Reds also have Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel banged up. Both of those guys were out of the starting lineup on Saturday and are questionable here. Cincinnati's lineup is far weaker now than it was at the start of the season.

Jeff Hoffman returns to Coors Field where he struggled terribly in a large sample size. Hoffman has an awful 7.58 ERA (and a 1.73 WHIP) in 130 and 2/3 innings in his career at Coors Field. 

Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies. He has actually been slightly better at Coors Field than on the road in his career. 

The Rockies are 13-11 at home this year. Colorado is 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. Cincinnati. 

The Reds aren't good at all at following a win with another win. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 following a win. This is an inconsistent team that has struggled on the road. They are shorthanded right now.

Take Colorado. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians have a team batting average on balls in play of .240 this year. The Seattle Mariners have a team batting average on balls in play of .244. No one else in baseball has a BABIP below .261. Neither of these offenses are great, but they are definitely better than they have looked so far this year. Positive regression is on the way in the long term. 

We have two pitchers with command issues here. Triston McKenzie has walked 4 guys or more in all but one of his starts this year. Justus Sheffield has had significant control problems in his career as well.

Stu Scheurwater is behind home plate and he has a smaller strike zone than the average MLB umpire. That could be a key here with these two starters.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Angels ML* The LA Angels start Dylan Bundy here. Bundy has fantastic raw stuff and he has the ability to dominate a game. He can also struggle at times because he gives up quite a few home runs. 

Martin Perez starts for the Red Sox. He is a subpar pitcher who relies on inducing weak contact to cover up the fact that he doesn't have good control and he can't miss bats. 

The Angels have Anthony Rendon back in the lineup and that should be big for this offense. A first four in the lineup of: Fletcher, Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon is about as good as they come.

Boston is a solid team, but they carry a high batting average on balls in play and look like a team that is due for some regression to the mean in the long run.

Take the Angels. 

*4 Star Play on Cubs ML* This isn't a play on the Cubs as much as it is a fade of the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is now a miserable 33-78 in their last 111 home games. They are 21-64 in their last 85 home games vs. a right handed starter. 

Detroit is arguably the worst team in baseball. Jose Urena is a guy who lets a lot of guys on base with his poor control. The Cubs offense has been much better of late, and Kris Bryant returned last night. 

Trevor Williams and Jose Urena is close to a wash.

The Cubs offense is far better than the Tigers offense.

The Cubs bullpen is a middle of the road bullpen, while Detroit's bullpen looks like the worst in the majors so far this season. 

Take Chicago. 

*4 Star Play Over* Steven Matz has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher through his career. He has allowed far too many home runs on a consistent basis though. That isn't a good fit for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays are playing their home games right now. Matz has only pitched at home twice this year and one of those starts (against Washington) was one where he allowed 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have plenty of power, and I think they'll get to Matz here.

Vince Velasquez has even more trouble with hard hit fly balls than Matz. Velasquez has a terrible 2.28 homers allowed per nine innings rate so far this year. The Blue Jays have scored at a very high rate at home so far this year.

Both starting pitchers have blowup potential here and these are two quality offenses. 

This is the second best ballpark for hitters according to Park Factors so far this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Usually I begin by talking about the starting pitchers, but in this one I think the bullpens deserve the first spot. The Yankees have what many believe is the best bullpen in baseball. They have shutdown relievers who have elite swing and miss stuff. They rank first in the majors in bullpen xFIP and SIERA on the year. Tampa Bay has a very deep bullpen. That allows them to use a guy like Rich Hill and not take him deep into the game because they have multiple good options to bring in right after him.

The Yankees offense hasn't really gotten going all that much this year, and this is a pitcher friendly park. Tampa Bay has historically been better offensively on the road. 

Jameson Taillon has great control and his xERA is only 2.97 compared to his ERA of 5.02. He has had some very tough luck so far this year. 

Rich Hill has a 5.17 ERA and a xERA of only 3.57. His curveball is still excellent and he has above average control.

The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 vs. an AL East opponent. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been the most consistent team in the majors when it comes to crushing left handed pitching in the last two years. They rank second in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. The Minnesota Twins rank a solid 11th.

J.A. Happ is 38 years old. He has had a very nice season, but he is due for regression to the mean. Happ has a 1.91 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. He also has a 3.84 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He has allowed a ridiculously low .179 batting average on balls in play. That can't continue in the long run. The White Sox should get a lot of good swings here. The White Sox lineup has a .347 wOBA against him. 

Dallas Keuchel has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.29 xERA. Keuchel is still a quality pitcher, but he is no longer dominant. The Twins have a nice .324 wOBA against him. 

This is a low total for two offenses who hit lefties very well. These pitchers aren't good enough to have this low of a total against strong offenses. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup is one of the deeper lineups in baseball. All of their top six guys in the order are elite. Jason Castro has slumped early this year, but he is a solid long term hitter in the nine spot. There are a lot of professional hitters in this lineup. They make pitchers work. 

Shohei Ohtani has been good on the mound, but he walks far too many batters. Ohtani is walking 9.16 batters per nine innings so far this year. He struggled mightily with command last year in his two starts as well. The Astros are likely to have key guys come up with some runners in scoring position here.

Lance McCullers Jr. is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of shutting teams out. He is also capable of getting hit hard. The Angels lineup has a stellar .367 career weighted on base average against him. 

Both of these pitchers struggle with control, and Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire in baseball. He is a clear over umpire.

Take the over here.