*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are expected to have a bullpen game here with Drew Pomeranz being the starter. Pomeranz won't be around for very long, and Jordan Wicks is expected to get a decent amount of time here. Wicks has struggled quite a bit in his time in the majors in the last couple years. The Cubs middle relief isn't very strong.

Matthew Liberatore has had a good season, but this Cubs lineup is a top five lineup in baseball. Liberatore pitched well against them at home recently,  but the conditions will be different here.

Wrigley Field is a place where the weather makes a world of difference. The wind blowing out at Wrigley is great for over bettors, and that is even more the case when the temperature is hot as well. The weather for Saturday calls for low 90's with the wind blowing out at 12 mph. The ball should be carrying extremely well in this one.

With winds blowing out at least 7 mph and temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer the over is 52-30 in the last 82 games at Wrigley. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sandy Alcantara is in terrible form this year. Alcantara has a 6.98 ERA on the season. He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff percentage. He is getting hit hard regularly, and his strikeout rate is way down from a few years ago.

Milwaukee ranks top three in the majors in most of the major offensive categories for the last 30 days. The Brewers have gotten great contributions out of Sal Fralick and Brice Turang. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are stars as well. 

Quinn Priester has a good ERA this year, but under the surface there are some concerning signs. His FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate is running low. His expected batting average is in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in the majors. 

The Marlins are hitting the ball well of late. Edwards is a good leader for them, and Stowers is really coming into his own as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Coors Field day games in the heat have trended extremely high scoring in the long run. Blindly betting overs on totals of 11.5 or lower at Coors in day games has hit better than 58% in the last five years. 

Kyle Freeland has a 7.11 ERA and a .423 weighted on base average at Coors Field this year. The Houston Astros have a top three offense in the majors against left handed pitching. This should be a tough one for him.

Brandon Walter has been good so far this year, but this is a big test. Walter has a tendency to give up too many home runs, and these conditions are tough. Walter hasn't pitched anywhere similar to Coors Field.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play on Marlins ML* The Miami Marlins have won 8 straight games for the first time since 2008. The Marlins have been an underdog in all eight games too. They are once again in the underdog role here. 

Simeon Woods Richardson ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in expected ERA and his ERA on the road is well above 5. His chase rate is way down from a year ago. 

Janson Junk is throwing a whole lot more sliders of late, and it has helped his cause in a big way. Junk has a 3.73 ERA and a 2.03 FIP on the season thus far. 

The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games, and they are just 18-28 on the road this year. 

The Marlins have caught fire of late, and against a subpar starter in Woods Richardson, I'll back them in the underdog role here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants start Hayden Birdsong in this one. Birdsong is a youngster with plenty of promise, but he has proven streaky in his short career. He is up against a really tough lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark here. The Diamondbacks are second in the majors in runs per game at home. Chase Field is a top three hitter friendly park in the majors according to Baseball Savant's park factor ratings. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been in really bad form. Gallen has 7.04 ERA and a 6.59 FIP in his last eight starts. Gallen ranks in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He has allowed 13 HR's in his last 46 innings pitched. Gallen has allowed 4 runs or more in seven of his last eight starts.

Chase Field should help out here and these two starters are in poor form.

Take the over in this one.

*3 Star Play Under* It's Canada Day and we have an early start time for this one. Max Fried and Kevin Gausman are matched up against each other in this one.

Max Fried has had one bad start all season, and that was against the LA Dodgers loaded lineup. Fried has five starts since that start, and he has a 1.91 ERA and a 2.45 FIP in those starts. He has only 5 walks and 34 strikeouts in those five outings. Fried has great career numbers against the Blue Jays lineup as well.

Kevin Gausman has been a bit up and down, but he has elite swing and miss stuff. He can walk too many at times, but the home plate umpire here should help. 

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire, and he has been the most consistent strike caller and under umpire in the majors for the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have been amazing offensively on the road, but they still play in one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for hitters. Seattle averages a full run per game less at home vs. on the road. 

George Kirby has started the throw the ball better of late. Kirby came back slowly from an injury, but in his last five starts he has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. That includes one poor start in Chicago where the wind was howling out at Wrigley Field. Kirby is a good starter in the long run, and he is up against a very weak offense.

Michael Wacha has been consistently very good this year. Wacha has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Wacha does a nice job limiting hard contact.

The Royals have seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this low total. In a pitcher's park with two solid starters, I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this season. They are up against a mediocre in Eric Lauer in this one. 

Walker Buehler has been getting ripped this season overall, but he has been significantly worse in recent outings. Buehler has 10.14 ERA and a 8.13 FIP in his last five starts. Buehler is walking a lot of people, and he is giving up the long ball way too frequently.

Toronto's offense has been swinging the bat much better in recent weeks. Boston had been struggling a bit on offense of late, but they just put up 15 runs yesterday.

Fenway Park is one where the weather matters a lot and the wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day in Boston here. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here, and he has one of the lowest strikes called percentages year after year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach is an underrated starting pitcher. Schwellenbach has a great combination of an ability to create swings and misses and not walk many batters at all. He is walking just 1.48 batters per nine innings. He has a chase rate that is in the top 4% of all pitchers in the majors. He has a 3.21 ERA on the year, and he has been even better at home. 

Jesus Luzardo had two really bad outings a few games ago. He was tipping his pitches. Now that he has taken care of that, Luzardo has been back to pitching very well. For the season, Luzardo has a 4.08 ERA, but his FIP is an excellent 2.77. 

The Phillies and Braves are both in the bottom ten in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have had quite a few down days of late. They are up against tough customers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers have consistently played really good baseball all year long. The Minnesota Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Twins are also 17-25 on the road on the season.

David Festa starts for the Twins and in his last four appearances he has an ERA of 10.00. Festa ranks in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He ranks in the bottom 9% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity. 

Sawyer Gipson Long is a relatively highly touted prospect for the Tigers. The Tigers have a far better defense that saves run than do the Twins. 

The Tigers are 28-13 at home so far this season. The Tigers have a clear offensive advantage over the Twins for the season as a whole as well.

I'll lay the short price. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* Edward Cabrera can be a streaky pitcher, but he's ultra talented and he is in great form right now. Cabrera has a 1.46 ERA in his last five starts. That includes a scoreless 5 and 2/3 innings against the Giants on May 31st. 

Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Webb has a 2.49 ERA and a 2.22 FIP on the season. He has a 1.35 ERA at home in this pitcher friendly ballpark in San Francisco.

These are two bottom ten offenses in the majors in the last month. They both run into a really good pitcher who is throwing the ball very well here.

I like the starting pitchers to have the advantage here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best offense in baseball in the last 30 days. Tampa Bay has been crushing the baseball. The Rays have gotten great performances from Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz to lead the offense this season. 

The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good this year, but they are in a positive situation here.

Taj Bradley is a very streaky pitcher, and he has allowed 19 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. Bradley has been giving up a lot of hard contact, and that is a real cause for concern.

Kris Bubic is having a good season, but he has tailed off a bit in recent starts. This is a tough matchup.

The weather here is a factor too. A game time temperature of about 90 degrees with winds of 8 or 9 mph blowing out should help the batters. This weather at Kaufman Stadium has really helped over bettors through the years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Chicago Cubs are fourth in the majors in wOBA overall. These are two good offenses. 

The first two games in this series have finished 9-4 and 10-7. The hot weather and heavy winds blowing out are the perfect conditions for an over and a nice boost to the batters here. 

Overs at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at 8 mph or more and a temperature above 75 degrees have an ROI of better than 15% in the last 15 years. 

Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher, but this is a difficult spot for him and he isn't quite 100 percent from his recent injury. Colin Rea is a below average starter, and I think the Mariners can get to him plenty here.

The umpire in this one is Edwin Moscoso who is one of the best over umpires in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Philadelphia Phillies have caught fire of late, and the New York Mets have now lost 7 straight games. 

The New York Mets have been lights out at home going 27-10. The Mets are just 18-21 on the road this season though. The Phillies are 25-13 at home on the year. 

Griffin Canning overachieved for a long time this season. Canning has a 3.80 ERA for the season and a 4.18 FIP on the season. In his last six starts, Canning has a 6.08 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. Canning ranks in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in baseball in hard hit percentage allowed this year. Canning's advanced metrics have tanked in the last month.

Mick Abel was recently named one of the top 50 prospects in the minors. Abel has pitched well in his first few starts in the majors. Abel has a 2.21 ERA in his first four starts. 

The Phillies have the momentum and I want to bet against Canning especially with a team with patient hitters like Philadelphia has when Canning has been struggling badly with control.

Take Philadelphia.  

*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Houston Astros are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching and it isn't close. Houston has great platoon guys who can step in and mash left handed pitching.

Kikuchi has had a pretty good season for the Angels, but he is inconsistent and he has very poor numbers against this current Astros lineup. The Angels also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball to follow up Kikuchi.

Hunter Brown has been amazing all season. Brown both induces a lot of soft contact and gets a bunch of swing and misses. That combination is tough to find, but Brown is one of the very best at it today. 

The Astros bullpen is much deeper than the Angels bullpen. The Angels are coming off a trip to New York and this is a tough spot in their first game back home.

Take Houston -1.5. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* The Texas Rangers are 27th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They are also 25th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. This offense has really struggled to string together hits and create big innings. 

Kris Bubic has a sparkling 1.92 ERA with a 2.56 FIP this season. He is in the middle of a big breakout season. Bubic ranks in the top 15% of all pitchers in the majors in both chase percentage and average exit velocity allowed.

Patrick Corbin hasn't been as bad this year as he was the last couple, but I still don't find him trustworthy. Corbin has allowed a .393 wOBA against this Kansas City lineup.

The Royals have a really big starting pitcher edge here, and the offenses are similar with KC having a slight edge against lefties. I think this is a fair price to lay in this spot.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been tremendous this year. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are also tied for first in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.08 runs per game on the season.

Toronto is 11th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Blue Jays offense has improved in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are 7th in OBP in the last 30 days.

Brandon Pfaadt has been bad this season. He ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed. 

Chris Bassitt started the season on fire, but he has come back down to earth of late. Bassitt has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.55 FIP since May 1st. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 5.16 FIP in his last four starts.

The Blue Jays bullpen is average or slightly below average. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez has been a very highly ranked pitching prospect for the Miami Marlins. Perez looked pretty good in limited time last year. He has made just one start this year due to an injury. He started slowly against the Pirates in that game, but his minor league numbers suggest he has a bright future.

MacKenzie Gore has a stellar 2.86 ERA and a 2.63 FIP on the season. Gore also has allowed a great .240 weighted on base average against this Marlins lineup. In Gore's last five starts overall, he has a 1.57 ERA and a 1.64 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts.

Both of these offenses are below average for the season. The Nationals are dead last in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Erick Fedde is due for some major regression. He has a 3.54 ERA but a 5.28 expected ERA. Fedde is in the bottom 12 percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is in the bottom 6 percent in whiff rate and his overall strikeout rate is way down from last year. 

Freddy Peralta is a quality pitcher, but he has overachieved his underlying stats as well. Peralta has a 2.69 ERA with a 3.60 expected ERA and 4.10 xFIP on the season. 

Fedde has been torched by this Brewers lineup. In 116 plate appearances, the Brewers have a staggering .400 batting average and a .473 weighted on base average. 

Peralta has been hit hard by the Cardinals lineup too. He has a .357 wOBA in 159 plate appearances. 

The two bullpens are both below average according to the advanced metrics.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers -1.5* The Baltimore Orioles are 9th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They happen to face the best left handed pitcher in the majors tonight in Tarik Skubal. 

Skubal has 0 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. Skubal has a 2.16 ERA, but his FIP is even better at 1.86. It hasn't been luck, Skubal is just that good. Skubal's control is the best you'll ever see (7 walks in 83 and 1/3 IP) and his home run rate allowed has been very low every year.

Dean Kremer has struggled with the home run ball this year. He pitches for the Orioles here, and the Tigers do have quite a bit of power. Kremer is unlikely to be able to keep this Tigers offense down on this kind of weather day.

It is in the 90's and the wind is blowing out a bit at a home run heavy ballpark in Baltimore.

Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has racked up some really impressive numbers this year. He has 14 walks compared to 75 strikeouts on the season. Schwellenbach has 2 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 3.24 ERA on the season and his FIP is 3.26. 

Chad Patrick has a 2.84 ERA and a 3.23 FIP on the season. Patrick has a stellar 2.25 ERA and a .274 weighted on base average allowed at home this year. 

These two offenses have struggled to string together hits and big innings. I think the two starting pitchers can fare well in this one.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has been the most consistent under umpire in the majors in the last five years. Eddings continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he is clearly a pitcher friendly umpire.

It is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been amazing all season. They are clearly a top five offense. They are also playing at Chase Field, and this is a hitter friendly ballpark. 

Arizona has seen 8 of their last 12 games finish with at least 9 total runs. Brandon Pfaadt is in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. Arizona also has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Seattle Mariners are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. 

Bryan Woo is a good starting pitcher, but he has much better numbers at home during his career.

I think either team could have a big game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowden Francis is in terrible form right now. Francis has 7.98 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in his last seven starts. Francis ranks in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed. He ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed and expected ERA. Francis has allowed a whopping 11 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched.

Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher. Ryan has been a bit more shaky of late though with a lower swinging strike percentage and a higher walk rate. 

The Toronto offense is first in the majors by a wide margin in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Twins are 14th.

The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this game. Those winds do change the game a lot in this park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Seattle goes up against Kyle Hendricks in this one. Hendricks was previously a high quality pitcher, but he is well past his prime now. Hendricks relied on a very high chase percentage to be successful in the past, but he no longer carries those high rates. Hendrick isn't going to pile up strikeouts, and his walk rate is quite a bit higher than it was a few seasons ago too.

Bryce Miller is in the bottom 15th percentile in expected batting average. Miler has had very poor splits on the road in his career. Miller isn't 100% healthy and his form of late has been bad. 

The Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom five of the majors in all the major statistics. The Mariners bullpen is a below average bullpen by the numbers as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday night. Max Fried has a stellar 1.92 ERA on the season, but he is coming off a poor start against the Dodgers. I see this as a bounce back start for Fried. Fried has elite control and does a good job not giving up hard contact. The Guardians lack depth in the lineup. 

Slade Cecconi is a project, but he has ranked out pretty well in whiff rate in the early going. The Yankees do have several high strikeout guys in their lineup.

The Guardians and Yankees are both top six in the majors in defensive runs saved. These are two of the top ten bullpens in the majors.

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire and the under is 10-2 in his 12 games behind home plate this year. He has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and New York Mets have consistently been top five offenses in the majors this year. The Dodgers are first in the majors in weighted on base average and they obviously have a lot of pop in the lineup. The Mets have gotten some production out of the top of the lineup, and they have a good mixture of contact hitters and power guys.

Griffin Canning had a great start to the season this year. Canning seemed to be pitching far above every expectation for him. He has fallen off badly in the last three games though. Canning has 9 walks and 8 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 6.55 ERA and a 6.44 FIP. 

Tony Gonsolin has been struggling this season. In Gonsolin's last five games he has an ERA of 5.40, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.92. He has given up six home runs in his last 15 innings pitched. He has given up hard contact all season.

I see both offenses having chances for big innings here against starters who are struggling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have been poor on offense all season. They were gifted quite a few runs late by bad defense from the Cardinals on Sunday. On the whole though, the Rangers defense has been poor at stringing together hits. 

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a grand total of zero runs in his last three starts (18 innings pitched). Rasmussen has improved his control and opponents aren't hitting the ball as hard off of him as they did in some previous seasons.

Tyler Mahle has great movement on his pitches, and he has been tremendous this year. He has allowed two runs or less in all but one start. He excels at inducing soft contact. 

The Tampa Bay lineup has been inconsistent this season. The Rays have seen 10 of their last 15 games stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.02 runs per game. They can score in a variety of ways and they should put pressure on Spencer Strider here. Strider is a really talented pitcher, but he isn't 100% yet coming back from a major injury. 

Zac Gallen has been really bad of late. He is in a major funk. Gallen has allowed 20 runs in his last four starts. Gallen has walked at least two batters in 10 straight starts. He ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity allowed. 

The Braves lineup is healthier now and I expect them to improve their offensive output in the coming weeks. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Mets lineup has a lot of power in the middle, and the guys at the bottom of the order have done their jobs as well. 

The LA Dodgers offense is first in the majors in wOBA, and they are first by a mile in the last 30 days. The Dodgers have played in six straight games that have had at least 9 runs scored.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the sixth most hitter friendly park in the last two years. It is fourth most hitter friendly this year alone.

Paul Blackburn is a below average starting pitcher who has been injured and is being thrown into a very tough spot here against an elite Dodgers lineup. I don't think it will go well for him.

Dustin May has a worse wOBA allowed at home, and the Dodgers bullpen has been shaky of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers offense has disappointed all season. They are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home. It wasn't a few years ago, but this ballpark has become a very pitcher friendly park. 

The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been very good at home this year, but they are slightly below league average on the road. They are up against a really tough customer here in the form of Jacob Degrom.

Degrom has rounded into form very nicely after a slow start early in the season as he came back from a long break due to injury. He's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I like his chances here against the Cardinals.

Erick Fedde has been a mediocre starting pitcher in his career, but the Rangers are struggling badly against those middle of the road pitchers, especially when they are right handers at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been amazing in recent weeks, while at the same time the offense has cooled off drastically from the red hot start they had to the season. The Giants have been an under machine of late. Their last seven games have stayed under this total. Also, 11 of their last 12 games have stayed under this total.

Robbie Ray has a 1.62 ERA and a 1.51 FIP in his last six starts. Ray has allowed zero home runs in those six starts. He has 9 walks and 44 strikeouts in that span. Ray is fully capable of dominating any lineup when he is on his A game. 

Edwin Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has been pitching well of late. Cabrera is a high upside guy who occasionally struggles with control. In his last four starts, Cabrera has a 2.53 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He has walked only five batters in that span. 

These are two below average lineups, and I like the pitching to have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Sean Burke is overmatched right now pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Burke has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his ten starts in the majors this year. Burke is giving up a lot of home runs as well.

Zach Eflin is a middle of the road pitcher. The Orioles bullpen has been the worst in the majors so far this year.

The weather calls for a chance of rain here, and if it does rain and the bullpens are needed for even longer than normal in this one that is helpful for the over. Both of these are bad bullpens and the offenses should get a lot of chances against those groups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has been absolutely dealing this year. Lopez has a 2.31 ERA and a 2.42 FIP on the season thus far. Lopez has only allowed more than 2 runs in one of his last eight starts. He has great control and has done a very good job avoiding giving up the long ball.

Drew Rasmussen has a 2.60 ERA and his advanced metrics all look very good as well. Rasmussen has pitched back to back games of 6 innings and no runs allowed. Ramussen also has a stellar 1.91 ERA in 117 and 2/3 innings in day games in his career. He has been at his best in these situations. 

For both of these teams, 7 of their last 10 games have been below this posted total.

These two offenses are both slightly below league average in weighted on base average. It's a get away day game and I think we'll see a key bat or two sitting this one out. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer makes the start here against his old team in Kansas City. Singer has been inconsistent this year,  but he faces a Royals team that has been bottom six or seven in the majors in all the major offensive categories all year long. The Royals have been especially weak offensively at home. 

The Royals start Lynch in this one, but it will be a bullpen game. The Royals bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA. Kansas City is giving up the second fewest runs per game in the majors so far this year.

There will be cool temperatures and a slight breeze blowing in from center field for this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game. Kuilpa continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers are back home to host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday. Texas starts Jacob Degrom in this one. Degrom started the season a bit slowly in his return from injury, but he has been tremendous in his last seven starts. In those seven starts, Degrom has a 1.66 ERA and a 2.43 FIP. He's walked just six batters in those seven starts. Degrom is back to his dominant self.

Kevin Gausman has had a nice season for the Blue Jays as well. He's actually due for some positive regression with a 4.30 ERA and a 3.37 FIP on the season thus far.

Both of these pitchers have a good history against these lineups. These lineups are both in the bottom eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Globe Life Field in Texas is a top five pitcher's park between last season and this season. Both of these bullpens are above average too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Schwellenbach in this one. I'm high on his potential as a very good right handed starting pitcher. He doesn't walk many batters, and he has excellent offspeed pitches to go along with his 97 mph fastball. 

The Padres lineup has cooled off a lot in recent weeks. San Diego has especially struggled away from home. The Braves are 16-8 at home this year.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has come back and hit a home run in each of his first two games back from his injury. It's possible he will sit here, and even if he does I like this play, but it is a nice bonus if he plays. The Braves lineup has hit Dylan Cease well. 

It has been only 41 plate appearances, but Schwellenbach has allowed just a .161 weighted on base average against the Padres.

I like the Braves at home in this one. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The LA Dodgers are almost never going to be at even money type odds against anyone, especially when it isn't a superstar pitcher on the mound for the other team.

David Peterson is a solid starter, but he has been absolutely crushed by this Dodgers lineup in the past. In 99 plate appearances against him, the Dodgers lineup has a whopping .479 weighted on base average. Peterson is due for some regression  this year as well.

The Dodgers lineup is so good, and the Mets have really struggled of late. At this kind of price, I have to back the road team here.

Take the LA Dodgers.

*3 Star Play on Mariners ML* The Seattle Mariners have been crushing the baseball on the road. Seattle is second in the majors in weighted on base average away from home this season. The Mariners are 16-10 on the road. 

Bryan Woo is an underrated right handed starter. The Astros are just 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching this year. Woo has elite control. He has a 2.65 ERA and a 2.77 FIP on the season thus far. 

Framber Valdez is a good left handed starter, but the Mariners have hit him very well in the past. The Seattle lineup has a .347 wOBA against Valdez in a massive sample size of 249 plate appearances.

The Mariners are the better offense. Woo has been the better pitcher this year, and the Mariners are very good against left handed pitching.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire for this game. Blaser has been a pretty good under umpire for many years now, but he is taking it to the next level this year. Blaser's games are 9-1 to the under. Those records can be a fluke, but his strikeout/walk ratio is well over 4 and is easily the highest of the regular umpires in the majors. Blaser is the ultimate pitcher friendly umpire this season.

The Cardinals lineup is banged up right now. Contreras has hit the ball well off Kelly in the past, but he was scratched from last night's game with back issues and he is questionable here. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been much better on offense against right handed pitching. Liberatore has been excellent for the Cardinals this year. He doesn't walk hardly anyone, and he does a good job not giving up hard contact.

Merrill Kelly has been very good in his last few starts, and I like his chances against this weakened Cardinals lineup.

The wind is blowing in here and in these conditions the under has been very good in St. Louis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are 17-6 at home so far this year. The Tigers are still being disrespected by the oddsmakers. Detroit's offense is top eight in all the major advanced statistics. Detroit has the most wins in baseball right now. 

Jackson Jobe starts for the Tigers here. Detroit has won his first eight career starts. Jobe has been one of the highest rated pitching prospects for the last few years, and his upside is extremely high. 

The Guardians offense is below average, and they are just 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Tigers bullpen is top five in most categories so far this year. The Guardians bullpen has really slipped and is around league average or a little worse.

Slade Cecconi is an extreme fly ball pitcher and he gives up quite a bit of hard contact. 

I feel like the price is too low here on the Tigers. After a poor showing on Thursday night, I like them to bounce back here. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average so far this year. The Baltimore Orioles are 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average this season so far. 

Chad Patrick has been good for the Brewers this year. He does a good job minimizing walks, and Patrick has been excellent when pitching at home. The Orioles lineup has had a hard time stringing together hits.

Sugano has four walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starts for the Baltimore Orioles. He has been remarkably consistent this year. Sugano has a .250 weighted on base average on the road this season. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. He is a strike caller and he should help both pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Cincinnati Reds have won five straight games, and they are back above .500. Cincinnati has been getting good pitching, and several of their hitters have caught fire. Will Benson's return to the lineup and instant power has really helped this team. 

Nick Martinez has 0 walks and 14 strikeouts in his last three starts. Martinez has allowed just 7 runs in total in his last five starts. He is inducing soft contact and avoiding the big inning. 

Bailey Falter has very poor numbers against this Cincinnati lineup. He has allowed a .489 wOBA in 69 plate appearances against this Reds lineup. Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson have been particularly good against him.

The Pirates are dead last in the majors in slugging percentage against right handed pitching. They are second worst in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Cincinnati's bullpen has slightly better numbers than the Pirates bullpen. The Reds have quite a few advantages in this one.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I'm high on Spencer Schwellenbach's ability to be a very good big league pitcher. Schwellenbach has elite control, and he gets hitters to chase a bunch of pitches outside of the strike zone. 

Brayan Bello is due for more regression to the mean. He has an 2.33 ERA and a 5.17 expected ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Bello is striking out only 5.67 batters per nine innings this year. 

Bello has a terrible day/night split in his career. In day games he has a 1.64 WHIP while at night it is 1.32. Schwellenbach has a great 0.99 WHIP in day games in his short career.

The Braves started the season terribly, but I think they are a more complete team than the Red Sox. Atlanta has been playing much better in recent weeks. I'll back the road team with the better starting pitcher here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are second in the majors in wRC+ on the road. Seattle is also third in the majors in wOBA on the road. Seattle's lineup has hit Nick Pivetta extremely well in the past. Pivetta has allowed a whopping .443 weighted on base average in 96 plate appearances. He has allowed ten home runs in those 96 plate appearances as well.

Pivetta started the season on fire, but he has struggled a bit more in his last couple starts. He isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but I do think he is due for some regression to the mean. 

Emerson Hancock is a below average starter up against an above average San Diego lineup. Hancock has a 6.91 ERA and a 5.94 expected ERA so far this season. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The Padres should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Detroit Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers are 15-5 at home this year. The Tigers have been underrated by the oddsmakers, and I think based on this price they are still being undervalued.

Brayan Bello hasn't pitched nearly as well as his top line numbers. Bello has a 2.01 ERA, but a 5.56 expected ERA and a 5.58 FIP. He has stranded 97.1% of runners on base which is absolutely going to regress toward the mean over time. 

Detroit's offense is 6th in the majors in wRC+ and I think they can do some damage against Bello in this one. 

Boston's offense is above average, but Holton is a good opener for the Tigers. Montero shows some signs of promise for Detroit, and the hope is not starting will help take some pressure off him.

Boston is a middle of the road team right now, and they are favored at Detroit? 

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense isn't good. The Royals are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average. Witt is a star, but he doesn't have enough help around him in this lineup.

Even at this low number, 10 of the Royals last 14 games have gone under this total. The Royals have an above average bullpen, and their defense is very good. 

Cole Ragans starts here, and Ragans has a 3.79 ERA, but an excellent 2.28 expected ERA and a 2.38 FIP. Ragans has a .347 batting average on balls in play allowed so far this year, and that is bound to positively regress toward the mean over time. Ragans is striking out an insane 14.38 batters per nine innings, and he is one of the best lefties in the majors.

Garrett Crochet has a 2.02 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Crochet is another excellent lefty. The Boston left hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this year. He should be able to slow this Kansas City offense.

The home plate umpire here is Ron Kulpa, who is an excellent under umpire based on his long history of a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees start Will Warren here. Warren has plenty of potential, but thus far it just has not worked out. He had a 5.23 ERA in Triple A in 2023. He had an ERA over 10 in a little over 22 innings last year. He has a 5.67 ERA so far this season. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity allowed (93.7 mph). He has a home run problem.

Osvaldo Bido ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. He is in the bottom 25% in expected ERA as well. 

The Yankees are first in the majors in most offensive categories. The Athletics are top ten in most of them too. 

Sutter Park is the second most hitter friendly park in the majors so far this year. These two lineups should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both rank in the top five in the majors in total offense. They are two deep lineups with the ability to score through stringing together singles or through the long  ball. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.92 ERA on the year, and he has been torched by the Dodgers lineup in the past. The Dodgers have a .329 batting average and a .382 wOBA against him in his career. Freddie Freeman has really hit him hard.

Roki Sasaki has major control problems. He has 20 walks in his 30 and 1/3 innings pitched. He's walked at least two batters in every start despite only going six innings once all season. He isn't getting batters to swing at the balls out of the strike zone thus far.

Chase Field is a top three or four hitters park with the roof open and the roof is scheduled to be open for this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The LA Dodgers are the best team in baseball. It's pretty rare you'll be able to find them in this price range. Yamamoto has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 0.90 ERA and a 2.27 FIP on the season. He is striking out 11.03 batters per nine innings.  

Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.06 career ERA at home. He has a 5.31 expected ERA this season overall. The Dodgers lineup has hit him hard in the past. They have a .329 batting average and a .398 wOBA against Pfaadt in 85 career plate appearances.

The Dodgers lineup is excellent and the bullpen is sixth in the majors in FIP. The DBacks bullpen is 23rd.

The price is too low for me to pass here.

Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* The New York Mets are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. The Mets still have one of the best records in the majors. The Mets have no clear weakness. Their starting pitching is solid. Their offense is clearly above average. The bullpen is very good. 

Kodai Senga starts here for the Mets. Senga has been excellent this year. He has a 1.38 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Senga has proven himself to be a very good starter in the last three seasons. Senga has dominated this Arizona lineup too. The Diamondbacks lineup has a .148 batting average and a .177 weighted on base average against him in 60 plate appearances.

Merrill Kelly is a decent starter too, but he is a level below Senga. Kelly has allowed a .355 wOBA against the Mets lineup. Pete Alonso has 3 HR's against him in 16 at bats.

The Mets are 3rd in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Diamondbacks are 21st. Arizona's bullpen isn't deep enough.

Take the Mets here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento on Tuesday night. Seattle is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They get to play in a very hitter friendly park in Sacramento on Tuesday night against a middle of the road left handed starter in Springs. 

Springs has a 7.20 ERA and a .374 wOBA allowed in games at Sacramento. On the road, Springs has a 3.26 ERA and a .270 wOBA allowed. 

Emerson Hancock starts for the Mariners here. Hancock has a 6.62 ERA on the season thus far. Hancock just doesn't get enough swings and misses with his stuff. He is in the 14th percentile in the majors in whiff rate and 13th percentile in chase rate. The Athletics offense has some young talent and I think they'll be able to do damage here.

Both bullpens have been used heavily of late, especially after going into extra innings on Monday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday evening. Arizona is 6th in the majors in runs per game. The Phillies are 5th in the majors in runs per game at home. 

Aaron Nola has lost velocity on his fastball, and his breaking pitches have had far less run to them this year. Nola is in the 24th percentile of major league pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He has 11 walks in his last four starts. 

Brandon Pfaadt is due for some regression. He has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.93 FIP and a 5.01 expected ERA. 

The weather calls for winds of about 10-12 mph with higher gusts blowing out toward center and left center field during the game. There is a chance for some rain/thunderstorms popping up during this game. 

If there is a rain delay, the bullpens might get some extra work. Both of these bullpens are in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen ERA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* Sonny Gray's velocity is down quite a bit this year. Gray's strikeout rate is also his lowest since 2017. He has an ERA of 3.60 and an expected ERA of 4.02. He isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't as good as he once was.

Clay Holmes has been excellent for the Mets. Holmes has a 2.64 ERA with a 2.18 FIP so far this season. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher, and he is racking up the strikeouts at a rate of more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. 

The Mets bullpen is top five in all the advanced statistics. The Cardinals bullpen is around 20th in the majors in most of the advanced numbers.

The Mets lineup has crushed Sonny Gray in their past appearances. In 118 plate appearances against Gray, the current Mets lineup has a .384 weighted on base average against Gray. 

Take the Mets. 

*3 Star Play on Tigers ML* The Detroit Tigers start Casey Mize in this one. Mize has a 2.12 ERA and an expected ERA of 2.44. In 48 plate appearances, the current LA Angels offense has a .156 batting average and a .179 weighted on base average against Mize. 

Yusei Kikuchi has 4.31 ERA and a 4.68 FIP on the season. He also has allowed a .423 weighted on base average in 46 plate appearances against the Tigers lineup. 

The Tigers are 4th in the majors in bullpen ERA. The Angels are 28th in the majors in bullpen ERA.

There's no doubt the Tigers have the better lineup as well. The Angels rank bottom five in most offensive categories on the season. Detroit is still being doubted in the marketplace, and I'm going to take them with all the advantages they have in this matchup.

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Francisco Giants start a talented youngster in Roupp here. Roupp has high upside, but he hasn't proven to be consistent especially when it comes to finding the strike zone. He has 3 walks or more in 3 of his 5 starts this year. Roupp is up against a good Padres lineup here.

I am very high on Padres starter Michael King. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season thus far. He is averaging 10.91 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last five starts, he has a 1.48 ERA. 

The Padres have the best bullpen FIP so far this season. San Diego has a lot of good arms out of the bullpen. They have the fifth highest strikeout rate of any bullpen in the majors. They also have the third lowest walk rate of any bullpen in the majors. 

In 72 plate appearances against King, the Giants have a .210 batting average.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have had a ton of low scoring games this year. In fact, 13 of the Rangers last 14 games have gone under this posted total. Their last six games have all finished with 7 total runs or fewer. 

The A's have been a relatively high scoring team, but they play in Sacramento for their home games and that is a clear hitters park. Even with that being the case, 10 of their last 15 games overall have finished under 8.5.

Jacob Degrom is still working back from his injury, but he has looked much better in his last couple starts. Degrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I think he can have a solid start here.

Jacob Lopez starts for the A's here. The Rangers offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average this year. 

Texas is 5th in bullpen FIP and the Athletics are 11th, so these are two solid bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They are loaded with depth in the bullpen, and they are second in the majors in FIP and 4th in ERA. Ronel Blanco has pitched into some bad luck, and he starts in this one. I still think Blanco is at least a pretty good starting pitcher. His expected ERA is more than 1 full run lower than his ERA right now. 

Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers. Flaherty is a proven very good right handed pitcher. He has a 2.63 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Flaherty is striking out 11.20 batters per nine innings. The Tigers bullpen is also ranked top five in the majors in ERA.

The Astros offense is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The Tigers offense is below average against righties. 

Both pitchers have had great success going against the opposing lineups in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Coors Field is obviously a fantastic hitters park. The Cincinnati Reds are third in the majors in wOBA on the road so far this year. 

Nick Lodolo is a good pitcher, but his strikeout rate is down this year and he is due for regression. A pitcher due for this much regression heading to Coors Field is a warning sign.

Ryan Feltner has been much worse at Coors Field in his career, and he has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has been in the second half of the season in his career.

These two bullpens are very bad. The Rockies bullpen is third worst in the majors in FIP. The Reds bullpen is worst in the majors in FIP. Both of them are bottom three in the majors in SIERA as well. There should be plenty of scoring chances late in this one.

Coors Field day games with warm temperatures have been great to over bettors. That factor alone has been north of 60% in the last decade. The average wind in this one is blowing out to center field at about 17 or 18 mph. These are great conditions for the hitters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are tied for the top spot in the majors in weighted on base average offensively. They are first in the majors in wRC+. This is a deep lineup with a ton of power all through the lineup. The Yankees hitters have tremendous career stats against Jose Berrios. In 113 plate appearances against the Yankees, Berrios has allowed a .323 batting average and a .437 wOBA. Aaron Judge has 5 career home runs against Berrios. Cody Bellinger is 3/4 with a homer against him as well. Berrios has a 5.02 ERA and a 5.43 FIP on the season thus far.

Carlos Carrasco has a 6.53 ERA and a 5.74 FIP on the season. Carrasco gives up loads of hard contact and has a very high home run rate allowed. The Blue Jays do have some power in the lineup, and Carrasco is completely capable of giving up a big number here.

The two bullpens are average and there should be scoring chances against them as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Los Angeles Angels have overachieved in the early going. They started really hot, and they have been coming back down to earth in recent games. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Angels had a season win total of 72.5 before the season, and I would be really surprised if they end up being a .500 team.

The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't a good team, so I'm not going to pretend they are good. The Pirates have a couple advantages in this game though. The Angels bullpen is third worst in the majors in ERA and third worst in FIP on the season thus far. The Pirates are 13th best and 14th best in those two categories. 

Andrew Heaney is pitching against his old team here. Heaney has been a fast starter in the March/April period during his career. He has been very good again this year in the early going. Heaney has a 2.13 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. 

Kochanowicz has extremely low strikeout numbers (4.43 strikeouts per nine innings) and his ERA is 6.20 with a 5.79 FIP on the season. 

The Pirates aren't good, but neither are the Angels and the Angels are too big of a favorite here.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Baltimore Orioles are third in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 29th in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Mitchell Parker has a career 2.41 ERA when pitching at home at Washington. He has given up a very low .271 wOBA. Parker has also been much better in the first half of the season than the second half.

Dean Kremer has a 4.92 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He has a 3.75 ERA in the second half. Kremer is off to another bad start this season. The Nationals lineup isn't bad, especially with James Wood and Keibert Ruiz coming of age.

Baltimore shouldn't be favored by this much against a lefty that is at least average (likely a little better). The Orioles are getting too much respect with this line.

Take Washington. 

*3 Star Play on Mets ML* Aaron Nola has really struggled this year. Nola's velocity is way down. He is averaging just 90.7 miles per hour on his fastball, which ranks in the bottom ten percent of pitchers in the majors. Nola has a 6.65 ERA and he has allowed 27 hits in just 21 and 2/3 innings pitched. 

Nola's past history against this current Mets lineup is terrible as well. The Mets have a .363 weighted on base average against Nola. Pete Alonso has six career home runs against Nola. Juan Sota has a .438 wOBA against Nola as well. I like the Mets to get to Nola again in this one.

Tylor Megill has a 1.40 ERA and a 2.21 FIP so far this season. Megill is getting the most swings and misses on pitches outside the strike zone that he has gotten in his career. In 94 plate appearances, the Phillies have just a .202 batting average against Megill.

Take New York here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph with gusts up to 18 mph at Citi Field for this Sunday afternoon battle between the Cardinals and Mets. 

Clay Holmes is off to a nice start for the Mets. He has a 3.66 ERA and his FIP is 2.17, which suggests he has gotten at least somewhat unlucky as well. Holmes is striking out 12.81 batters per nine innings.

Sonny Gray has a solid 3.13 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Gray has been better in the first half of the season than the second throughout his career. He has also been better on the road.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. He is a strike caller who frustrates the batters game after game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres start Michael King here. King has turned into a legitimate Ace of the pitching staff. King had a 2.95 ERA in 30 starts last year. It isn't just him pitching well in a favorable home park either. King has a better ERA on the road than at home in his career. His career weighted on base average on the road is a sparkling .279. 

Hayden Wesneski has potential, but he has a lot more to prove than does King. Wesneski has had a major home run problem in his short career. He has a 4.00 ERA, but a 4.94 FIP this season.

The Astros have alternated wins and losses in their last 14 games. They won last night when they had the pitching advantage over the Padres. Now, San Diego clearly has the better starting pitcher. The Padres are 15-5, and this is a good chance for them to get back in the winning column.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay Rays ML* Carlos Carrasco is well past his prime, and I'm happy to fade him when I can. Carrasco has a 5.94 ERA and a 6.12 FIP this year. Carrasco has had a 5.64 ERA or worse in three straight seasons counting this year. He gives up a ton of hard contact and pitches into a bunch of jams. 

Shane Baz is 25 years old, and he is hitting his stride as a major league pitcher. Baz has a 1.42 ERA and a 2.15 FIP on the season thus far. He has 4 walks and a whopping 27 strikeouts this season. Baz is at home here, and his home weighted on base average is .241 in his career (.304 on the road). 

The Rays bullpen is third in the majors in SIERA so far this season. 

I'll lay the price with the home team here. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is struggling in a big way. Kansas City has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games. Kansas City has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under 8.5 runs. 

Clarke Schmidt turned into a very solid starter last year. I don't see the Royals snapping out of their ugly offensive funk in this one against him. 

Kris Bubic has added a sweeper to his pitching arsenal, and Bubic has allowed only 2 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. He has a whopping 21 strikeouts on the season already.

Ryan Blakeney is a help to the pitchers with his bigger strike zone behind home plate. 

Though the wind is blowing out a bit here, the temperatures will be very chilly in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched as well as anyone in the majors so far this year. Schwellenbach has allowed a grand total of one run in 20 innings pitched this season. He has only issued three walks and has 19 strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman has been very good this year. Gausman has just three walks in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He does a good job keeping the ball down in the strike zone and keeping it in the park. 

Roberto Ortiz is a good under umpire. Ortiz should help the pitchers get a few extra strikes called on the corners in this one.

Neither offense is in great form and I think the pitchers will have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* Of course the Yankees are a better team than the Kansas City Royals, but Carlos Carrasco is on the mound here for the Yankees against Seth Lugo. The Royals are at least an average team, and possibly a bit better. Lugo is an above average pitcher with great numbers against this Yankees lineup.

The current Yankees lineup has a .200 batting average and a .272 weighted on base average against Lugo. Aaron Judge is 0/11 against Lugo and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 1/13. Lugo is consistently a mid-high 3's ERA type of guy who doesn't give many free passes.

Carlos Carrasco was once a good pitcher in the majors, but he is 38 years old and way past his prime. Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA and a 6.52 FIP so far this year. In the last three seasons (counting this one) his ERA is above 6. 

It's a solid underdog price here on the significantly better pitcher.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers were shut out by Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs last night. The Dodgers stellar lineup isn't going to be shut out many times this year, and now they are up against a subpar starting pitcher in Colin Rea. Rea is likely to make the start here since Justin Steele is banged up. Rea has allowed a .304 average and a .377 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup. 

Tyler Glasnow has a lot of good stuff, but he has been banged up a lot and he has been inconsistent. He hasn't had his best command this year. 

The Cubs and Dodgers are two top five offenses in the majors. Both of these teams have plenty of blowup potential on offense to have big innings. Five of the Dodgers last six games have finished with 10 runs or more total scored. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sandy Alcantara is back and pitching very well again. Alcantara sits at 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season. Alcantara has always been very good at home, and his numbers against the Nationals are stellar. The current Nationals hitters have a miserable .174 batting average and a .215 weighted on base average against Alcantara. It isn't a small sample size either. Those numbers are from a large sample of 125 plate appearances. I trust Alcantara to pitch well here.

The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in the majors. They have been worse against right handed pitching so far this year. Despite an above average batting average on balls in play, the Marlins have a bottom ten wOBA against right handed pitching this season.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he has been one of the three best under umpires in baseball for many years in a row. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he frustrates a lot of hitters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento and before the season there were some very smart people who expected this field to play as a solid overs park, especially on warmer days in Sacramento. Oakland Coliseum was a great pitchers park, and this is a huge change from that. 

Last night's 10-4 win by the A's was a wild one. It was 6-3 in the first inning. The A's offense is a bit better than most people realize. Both Butler and Rooker are budding stars and the lineup has some decent power. Vasquez starts for the Padres, and while he hasn't given up many runs this year, his lack of control and batted ball luck so far this year suggest regression is coming for him.

Bido starts for the A's here, and the Padres solid lineup should be able to get to him here too. San Diego got 11 hits last night and stranded a bunch of guys on base.

The two bullpens are overrated and both teams should see scoring chances later in the game too.

The weather here calls for temperatures nearing 80 degrees by the end of this afternoon. The ball should carry well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There have been four games played in Sacramento where the Athletics are playing their home games. The lowest scoring game has had a total of nine runs. The four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. This is clearly a good park for hitters. The adjustment from Oakland Coliseum which was a great pitchers park to this park is a massive one. The temperature is slowly warming up in Sacramento, so the ball should be flying well.

Springs is a middle of the road left handed pitcher. I expect the Padres to be a good team against lefties this year. San Diego has a deep lineup and I think easy innings will be tough to come by in this one for Springs.

Dylan Cease is a good starting pitcher. Cease is a bit inconsistent though, and the A's do have some power in their lineup. Rooker is still underrated by many people.

The Padres have an average bullpen at best. The Athletics bullpen is clearly below average.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been a little better than average so far this year, but the Blue Jays have had good batted ball luck. They rank fourth in the majors in batting average on balls in play. This isn't a particularly deep lineup. 

The New York Mets offense hasn't performed well so far this year. I do think they are better than what they have shown overall, but these are tough hitting conditions and against a quality pitcher.

The weather calls for cooler conditions with winds blowing in during this game. The home plate umpire is Doug Eddings who is one of the two or three biggest under umpires in the majors. Eddings consistently has extremely high strikeout/walk ratios. 

David Peterson has been good at Citi Field in his career. Bowden Francis had a 3.30 ERA last year, and his expected ERA was 3.39 so it was no fluke. He has good control and has quality upside.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. The Yankees have the best weighted on base average in the majors despite having an average or slightly below batting average on balls in play. The Yankees are an excellent and deep lineup.

Marcus Stroman is past his prime, and Stroman has been hit hard by this Pirates lineup. The current Pirates lineup has a .359 weighted on base average against Stroman. 

Bailey Falter is a below average lefty and the Yankees have all sorts of guys who can crush left handed pitching.

The wind will be blowing out in this one and it will be warm at around 70 degrees in Pittsburgh. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. They have scored 10.33 runs per game in their last three games. This Cubs lineup is one of the deepest in baseball. There aren't many easy outs in this lineup. 

The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento, and this park is much more hitter friendly than the Oakland Coliseum was. The Athletics lineup is likely to be a good amount better at home than on the road this season.

Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs. His velocity has been down quite a bit in the past year, and he has in general trended downward. He is a bit past his prime, and I think the Athletics should create scoring opportunities here.

Jeffrey Springs starts for the A's in this one. Springs is coming off a great start in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in Seattle. I think he'll have a tougher time here against this Cubs offense. 

This is a day game and I think the ball will be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup took another hit when Jurickson Profar was suspended for using PEDs yesterday. The Braves are still without Ronald Acuna Jr. and this offense has scored just 8 runs in five games this season. Atlanta has scored one total run in their last three games. 

Dustin May has a superb 2.66 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. May is a fast starter, and I like this matchup for him against a cold Braves lineup. 

Chris Sale definitely has his work cut out for him against an excellent Dodgers lineup, but Sale has an impressive .219 batting average allowed against this lineup in his career. Sale has a 2.93 ERA in the first half of the season and is known for a being a fast starter as well.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. He is a strike caller who will give the pitchers the corner. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Seattle's T Mobile Park has been the single most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors in the last three years. It hasn't been very close.

J.P. Sears has allowed a .191 batting average and an impressive .259 weighted on base average in 101 plate appearances against this Seattle Mariners lineup. Sears is a solid lefty for the A's, and he has a stellar 1.59 ERA in 17 innings pitched at T Mobile Park.

Bryan Woo starts for the Mariners. Woo has an amazing 0.965 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. Woo has allowed a .167 batting average and a tremendous .182 wOBA in 76 plate appearances against this Athletics lineup.

These two lineups should struggle to get things going. Both of these lineups lack depth.

John Bacon is the umpire here and the under was 17-6 in his games behind home plate last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Schwellenbach in this one. I'm very high on Schwellenbach as a starter who can continue to improve and be an All Star for many years. Schwellenbach had a 0.975 WHIP in his last 13 starts last year. He has excellent swing and miss stuff. In Spring Training this year, his strikeout rates were about as high as anyone in the majors.

The Padres start Randy Vasquez here. Vasquez is an average starter who is going up against an excellent Atlanta Braves lineup. 

The Braves have lost the first two games in this series, and that makes me like them even more in this spot. 

Atlanta has the deeper and more talented backing up the much better starting pitcher.

Take Atlanta here.  

*3 Star Play on Arizona ML* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been a huge moneymaker at home in his career. That is especially true early in the season. Gallen has a 0.928 WHIP overall in March/April so he has been superb to start the season out wherever he pitches. 

Gallen is 38-15 on the moneyline at home in his career. He is up against a pretty good Cubs lineup, but Gallen should be up to the task here.  He had a strong 2.89 ERA in Spring Training, so he is in good form. Gallen's history against the Cubs is great as well. He has a .250 wOBA against the Cubs in 97 plate appearances. 

Justin Steele has a .369 weighted on base average against this Diamondbacks lineup in his career. Naylor should be a good addition to this lineup, and with Marte and Carroll at the top of the order Arizona will be solid offensively.

The favorites have done well on Opening Day in the past decade. I like this home favorite.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have scored only 7 runs in this three game series thus far. The Yankees have picked a bad time to go cold at the plate. The Dodgers have won the last two games by a score of 4-2. 

Luis Gil will start for the Yankees here. Gil has good stuff, but he does sometimes struggle with his control. He'll be helped by the home plate umpire in this one.

The Dodgers will go with a bullpen game here. They have some key guys who are well rested.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one. Eddings may be the single best under umpire in baseball. He consistently has a ridiculously high strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio. He is an extremely pitcher friendly umpire.

The temperature in the upper 50's with a light breeze blowing sideways should make the ball not carry very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets are now down 2-1 in this series. They turn to Jose Quintana to try to get the series back to even. Jose Quintana has had a fantastic career in the postseason. In 29 and 2/3 innings pitched he has a 2.43 ERA. He has an impressive 0.94 WHIP. He has thrown 11 innings and given up no runs in this postseason so far. 

Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers here. He has been at his best when pitching on the road too. He has a 2.06 ERA in his eight road starts this season. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this key game. Miller has arguably been the best under umpire in all of baseball in the last decade. He consistently has an extremely high strikes called percentage and a very high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

The weather here is helpful as well. A temperature of about 50 degrees and winds blowing in from center field at 10 mph. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has a 2.94 ERA and an impressive 0.98 WHIP in his postseason career. That is more than 116 innings, so it certainly isn't a small sample size. 

Tanner Bibee finished the year out strong. He had a 2.64 ERA in September. He pitched twice in the series against the Tigers and allowed just two runs in 8 and 2/3 innings. 

The Guardians had the day off two days ago. They then didn't use their top relievers yesterday. I expect Cleveland to have their very best in the bullpen ready to go for this game.

The Guardians offense has been streaky this year, and Cleveland has scored 2 runs or less in three of their six postseason games thus far in 2024. 

The Yankees have scored 3 runs or less in three of their five postseason games thus far. Stanton has been carrying them along. 

The cooler temperatures make the ball travel less at Yankee Stadium and on the whole Dan Iassogna is a bit of an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Royals ML* Seth Lugo has been excellent this season. Lugo comes home with a great chance to give his team a big leg up against the New York Yankees. Lugo has been very good against this Yankees lineup. In 107 plate appearances, Lugo has given up only a .283 wOBA to this Yankees lineup. Aaron Judge is 0/8 with three strikeouts against him. Jazz Chisholm is 1/11 against him with five strikeouts. 

Lugo has four appearances in the postseason. He has thrown only a total of 6 and 1/3 innings, but he has a great 1.42 ERA.

Clarke Schmidt starts for the Yankees here. Schmidt has an 11.57 ERA in just 2 and 1/3 innings pitched in the postseason. The Kansas City Royals offense had drastic splits at home vs. on the road this year. The Royals offense was 12th in the majors in wOBA at home and only 22nd on the road. 

Getting a small plus money price here is something I like. The Royals have great team chemistry and they could easily be up 2-0. This is a great opportunity for them to grab the series lead.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have played a lot of baseball the last few days. They are going to need Max Fried to pitch deep into this game. Fried does have a good history against this San Diego Padres lineup. Fried has a pretty good weighted on base average allowed of .298 against this lineup. Fried also finished the season strong. He had a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has been in fantastic form to finish the season. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts (since he came back from injury). He allowed 0 or 1 earned run in six of nine starts during that time. Musgrove has even better numbers against this Braves lineup. He has a .282 wOBA allowed against these Braves.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. The under is 50-35 in his games in the last three years. He has one of the highest strikeout/walk rates of any umpire. There's only been an average of 5.4 walks per game in games he has been umpire in this season.

With this being a crucial game in a short series, both teams will use their best bullpen arms.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but both of these teams have a recent history of a bunch of low scoring games. In the Rays last 12 games, 10 of them have stayed under 7.5 runs. In the Tigers last 12 games, 8 of them have stayed under the total. 

Brian O'Nora is the umpire behind home plate here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He is 17-9 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio of 3.17 is one of the highest in the majors. He is ringing up batters on close pitches. 

The Rays are a bottom five offense against right handed pitching. The Tigers are a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. These are based off year to date numbers in weighted on base average. 

Temperatures in the low to mid 70's are pretty moderate and the wind is blowing sideways for this one.

I like these teams to continue their recent under trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense has been abysmal of late. How bad? Kansas City has scored a grand total of 5 runs in their last six games! Kansas City has been second to worst in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Only the White Sox have been worse on offense. That's some bad company to be in.

The Washington Nationals offense has been struggling as well. The Nationals have scored one run or fewer in six of their last eight games. This is an offense that just isn't stringing together good at bats.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He is calling the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors this year. Long term he has done this year after year. Eddings has had a high strikeout/walk ratio consistently year after year.

Herz has a 3.78 ERA at home this year and his performance since the break has been very good. Michael Lorenzen has been solid this year for the Royals as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* The Atlanta Braves are in a must win territory at home against the New York Mets. Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves in this one, and he has been excellent in the second half of the season. Schwellenbach has a 3.61 ERA for the year, but it is 3.03 in the second half of the season. Louis Severino has been pretty good this year as well, but he’s been much better at home than on the road. Severino has a 4.80 ERA on the road, and he has pitched slightly worse in the second half of the season. 

The Braves are certainly banged up offensively, but they still have a line up with several hitters who have a good history against Severino. If the Braves want to have any shot to reach the playoffs, this is the biggest game of their season thus far. 

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on Friday night. The weather here is interesting with a temperature of just 61 degrees when this game gets started. There is a big system just off the coast that has led to a lot of wind and rain in and near Boston. The forecast for Friday night calls for winds of about 15 mph blowing straight in at Fenway. Cool temperatures and wind blowing in to that extent is a big help for an under.

Minnesota starts David Festa here. He has good stuff, but has been inconsistent this year. He does sometimes give up the big inning. 

Richard Fitts makes his third start for the Red Sox here. He has allowed no runs in each of his first two starts. 

This is a big game for both teams with the Twins in a Wild Card spot and the Red Sox still within reach if they get red hot right now. Both teams will use their bullpen aggressively in this important of a game. 

With a relatively high total and this weather- I'm on the under here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have seen six straight games stay under this total. The Guardians offense is below average against right handed pitching, but they have a great pitching staff and the best bullpen in the majors. Cleveland is a dangerous team in the playoffs because of their ability to shut the opposition down.

Bailey Ober has been throwing the ball really well for the Twins. Ober has a 3.90 ERA on the year and a 3.21 expected ERA. He has a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He ranks in the top ten percent of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate, so he is getting batters to swing at a lot of tough pitches outside the zone.

Tanner Bibee has a 3.60 ERA and a 3.65 FIP on the season. He has elite breaking stuff and he does a good job limiting walks.

Ober and Bibee have fantastic numbers against the opposition in this game. Ober has a .253 weighted on base average allowed in 84 plate appearances against this Guardians lineup. Bibee has a .269 weighted on base average allowed in 94 plate appearances against this Twins lineup.

This is a crucial game for both teams so I expect all the best bullpen arms to be available.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are 21st and the Minnesota Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have struggled quite a bit coming down the stretch.

The Guardians still have the best bullpen in baseball. That is a great weapon for them to have in key games for the last few innings. Matthew Boyd starts here too, and he has allowed one earned run or fewer in all but one of his starts for the Tribe this year (6 starts). Boyd has done his very best work at home with a 1.56 ERA and a .171 wOBA allowed.

Pablo Lopez struggled in the first half of the season, but Lopez has a 1.93 ERA since the All Star Break. 

Both of these teams have some key bats banged up right now and that has hurt their lineup depth quite a bit.

This is a pitcher friendly park overall, especially with more moderate temperatures and winds blowing in like we will see on Monday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been hitting right handed pitching pretty well lately, but they are still struggling mightily against lefties. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. 

D.J. Herz has a 2.77 ERA and a 2.92 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. Herz has a great 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings rate and he has good control. 

Edward Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has pitched well of late. Cabrera has a 3.13 ERA in 54 and 2/3 innings pitched in the second half of this season. Cabrera has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts.

The Washington bullpen is a major league average. The Marlins bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Reyburn is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 17-9 in his games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bobby Miller starts here for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller has a 7.79 ERA and a 6.80 FIP on the season. Miller has allowed 8 home runs in his last four starts. He also walks a lot of batters.

Jordan Wicks is a decent young pitcher, but he is up against a really good Dodgers lineup here. Wicks has a .301 weighted on base average allowed at home and a .327 wOBA allowed on the road. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have deep offenses who have been hot of late. They are both top six in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cubs have made a nice little run to be at least in the running the NL Wild Card. The Dodgers have gotten healthier and are a top two or three offense in all of baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average in both the last 30 days and last 14 days. These are two deep offenses who don't have many easy outs in the lineup. 

The Cubs struggled offensively against the Yankees in this past series, but they have a much more favorable matchup here. Walker Buehler has come back from a major injury and looked nothing like he did before. Buehler has a 5.67 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 5.98. Buehler has a career low strikeout rate this year and a career high walk rate. He is also giving up loads of home runs. Buehler is giving up 2.17 home runs per nine innings. 

Kyle Hendricks is having a major down season for the Chicago Cubs too. Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, but his road ERA is 7.89. The Dodgers lineup has smashed him in the past too. This Dodgers lineup has a .354 weighted on base average against Hendricks. Like Buehler, Hendricks has a career high walk rate and a career high home runs allowed rate. 

Dodger Stadium is second in MLB park factors in home runs. Both pitchers allow the long ball at a very high rate, and both teams have a bunch of power.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have a top three offense in baseball. They have Mookie Betts back healthy in the fold and that gives them a fearsome top four in the lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Hernandez. 

Griffin Canning is a below average pitcher. He has a 5.19 ERA and a 5.17 FIP on the season. Canning has a terrible history in his small sample size against the Dodgers too. He's allowed 4 home runs and 10 extra base hits in 43 at bats. Hernandez has 4 hits in 6 at bats against him.

Bobby Miller has a 7.25 ERA and a 6.42 FIP on the season. He has an 11.12 ERA on the road. Miller is bottom one percent in all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. He's not fooling anybody.

Adrian Johnson is a hitter friendly umpire, and he could make a difference in this game.

Both the Angels and Dodgers bullpens rank in the bottom half of the majors in FIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. The Angels dominant reliever Ben Joyce has pitched in three straight games so he might not be called upon in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has been streaky this year, but they have a lot of youngsters who have really been great in the second half of the season. Lawrence Butler has been as hot as anyone in the majors of late. Butler is a great table setter. Brent Rooker has been consistently excellent all year. Shea Langaliers has heated up of late, and he has a bunch of power. 

Oakland is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average in the second half of the season. They are 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Luis Castillo has an ERA over 4.5 in his last six starts. He has been giving up far too many long balls. Castillo has poor numbers in a small sample size against this Oakland lineup too.

J.T. Ginn doesn't have very good secondary stuff. The Seattle Mariners offense has gotten a bit healthier of late, and it has started to show on the scoreboard. I think Ginn could struggle especially against the top four in this Seattle order. 

The bullpens here have been no better than mediocre of late. Manny Gonzalez has a low strikeout/walk ratio and he is a helpful umpire for an over. This is a low number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves offense deserves a ton of credit for hanging in there as well as possible considering the massive amount of injuries they have had during the season. Lately, they have multiple key bats out of the lineup every day. Ozuna and Olson are really the only two primary guys they have healthy left in the middle of the order. The offense is still decent, but they are nothing like they were when healthy at the start of the year.

Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing for the Braves. He has a sparkling 2.48 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last six starts. He has 53 strikeouts in those six starts compared to only eight walks. 

Aaron Nola has been much better when pitching at home in his career, and that has been the case again this season. Nola has pitched shutouts in his last two starts at home. 

The temperatures have moderated in Philadelphia and this one should see numbers in only the mid 70's so the ball shouldn't carry quite as much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have scored 59 runs in their last six contests. The Cubs offense underachieved much of this season, but they are on fire of late. It's a deep lineup with plenty of power and speed. They are definitely up against a great pitcher in Paul Skenes here, but I think they can make him work and get to the bullpen quicker than most teams have. The Pirates bullpen has been very weak this year. Skenes has been a little bit wild in recent starts too.

Kyle Hendricks is far past his prime. Hendricks has a 7.16 ERA on the road this year. He isn't getting hardly any swings and misses. Hendricks has a terrible .355 weighted on base average against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have 32 runs in their last five games. 

The over is 86-54 in Edwin Moscoso's games behind home plate. He is one of the best over umpires in the majors. He has proven slow to ring up batters when they have a two strike count.

The weather is helpful here. A temperature of 94 degrees during this one and winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Even without star Ketel Marte, this DBacks lineup has been hitting the ball extremely well. Guys like Perdomo, Suarez, Gurriel, and Carroll have really been seeing the ball very well. 

Arizona is third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks haven't benefited from any luck in that time either. They have a .290 batting average on balls in play. In the last two weeks, the New York Mets are sixth in wOBA. The Mets have quite a few guys who hit left handed pitching well.

For the season overall, the Mets are fourth in wOBA against lefties. The Diamondbacks are third in wOBA against lefties. 

Chase Field is a hitter friendly park. Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez are both decent lefties, but at this point in their career neither of them are overpowering. I think there will be traffic on the bases for both teams. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather in Kansas City stands out on Sunday afternoon. A high temperature of 100 degrees and winds blowing straight out at Kaufman Stadium at 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph. 

Kaufman Stadium ranks in the top 5 hitter friendly ballparks in the majors. With conditions like this it becomes a massive plus for the hitters. The over has been extremely good at Kaufman Stadium on very hot days, and in this case we have heavy winds blowing out as well.

Kolby Allard starts here for the Phillies and he usually doesn't go very deep in the game. He is shaky at best, and he is up against a Kansas City lineup that is second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Kansas City is also top five in the majors in wOBA at home.

The Royals have seen 3 of their last 4 games finish with 11 runs or more.

The Phillies have a deep lineup. Seth Lugo has an ERA over 5 in his last five starts. Philadelphia certainly has the power hitters to take advantage of the conditions in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants start Blake Snell here. No pitcher in the majors has been throwing the ball as well as him of late. Snell has a sparkling 1.05 ERA and a 1.30 FIP in his last five starts. He has 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Seattle Mariners have George Kirby on the mound in this one. Kirby had one terrible start, but in his last 15 starts he has a great 2.75 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Kirby is a strike thrower to the max with a 1.32 walks rate per nine innings. 

Seattle and San Francisco both rank in the bottom five offenses in the majors in the last 14 days in weighted on base average. These two offenses are up against excellent pitchers here. 

Seattle strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in the majors. Snell should rack up the strikeouts here.

Tripp Gibson is a solid under umpire who should help give both pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under.