|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-08-17||Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5||16-10||Loss||-105||15 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks and LA Rams meet on Sunday afternoon. These two both rank in the top five in the NFL in terms of pace of play in neutral situations. Both teams should keep the pace moving in this one.
The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL in yards per play. The Rams are 27th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7. The Seahawks are 13th at 5.2. Seattle's defense has been much better at home than on the road.
This is a series that has been filled with a bunch of low scoring close games. That's why I see value on the over here. Why? The Rams are a completely different team this year. The offense is now dynamic and playing fast. Under Jeff Fisher in previous years, the Rams offense played slowly and was awful almost all the time.
I believe the oddsmakers are underrating how big of a change there has been in LA. Also, the Seattle defense is clearly not as good as they were a couple years ago. Russell Wilson has more weapons in the passing game than he did last year.
Take the over.
|10-08-17||Bills v. Bengals -3||16-20||Win||100||40 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Cincinnati Bengals are a desperate team. Cincinnati blew the game against Green Bay. They bounced back and thumped the Browns on the road last week. Now, the Bengals need this win to get back to 2-3. Cincinnati has a bye week next weekend, so all effort should be put into this game.
The Buffalo Bills stunned the Atlanta Falcons last week on the road. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Truthfully though, the statistics suggest that Buffalo isn't as good of a team as they look by their record. Other than their win against the lowly Jets, the Bills have been outgained every week. Buffalo won despite being outgained by 94 yards against Denver. They were outgained by 108 yards against Atlanta. They aren't likely to be this fortunate all the time.
The public is on the Bills here. 60% of the tickets on the Bills. On the other hand, 60% of the money is on the Bengals. The sharps like Cincinnati and I agree.
Take the Cincinnati Bengals.
|10-01-17||Giants +3 v. Bucs||23-25||Win||100||37 h 38 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants were 11-5 last year. Yes, this team is worse than it was last year, but it isn't as much worse as most people think right now. Also, I believe this team has plenty of pride, and that started to show at the end of the game against the Eagles when the offense showed up in fourth quarter.
Odell Beckham Jr. is finally starting to get pretty healthy. That makes a world of difference for this offense. Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up right now as well. The Bucs will be without star linebacker Lavonte David. Gerald McCoy and Brent Grimes will both try to play, but they are less than 100 percent. Safety T.J. Ward is doubtful for this one.
Jameis Winston makes some terrible decisions with the football, and this Giants secondary is very good. Don't be surprised if they pull off a couple picks here in key spots. This Giants defense is still a very good unit.
The Bucs are 1-8 in their last 9 games laying 2.5 points or more. They are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 home games.
Take the New York Giants here.
|10-01-17||Rams v. Cowboys OVER 48||35-30||Win||100||56 h 38 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back.
The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City).
Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet.
Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace.
This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here.
Take the over.
|10-01-17||Panthers v. Patriots -9||33-30||Loss||-105||33 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Patriots* I don't like laying this many points in the NFL very often, but I think this is a good spot. The Carolina Panthers offense is a hot mess right now. Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and the team has flat out told him not to run. That limits him quite a bit. Greg Olson being out is a big hit to the offense, and Kelvin Benjamin is expected to play, but he isn't 100 percent either.
Carolina's offense has looked miserable in two straight games. The fact that they were stopped cold at home by the worst defense in the NFL (Saints) last week was alarming.
New England is coming off a very close call. In fact, it was a game at home against Houston that they probably should have lost. Don't expect the Patriots to come out slow in this one. The Panthers were in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and I think they'll have the Patriots full attention here.
In non-division games in week four in the last ten years, favorites of 7.5 points or more are 21-10 ATS. The Patriots are in that spot here.
I think we can count on the Patriots to put up 30 points or so here. Can the Panthers get to 21? I wouldn't count on it.
Take New England.
|10-01-17||Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 42.5||26-9||Win||100||33 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests.
Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders.
The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game.
The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either.
The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well.
The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-28-17||Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5||14-35||Loss||-104||41 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover.
While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line.
Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm.
Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace.
The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well.
Take the under.
|09-24-17||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 47.5||24-10||Loss||-110||24 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season.
Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him.
The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play.
Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games.
Take the over.
|09-24-17||Seahawks +3 v. Titans||27-33||Loss||-120||74 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 ATS so far this year. Some people are ready to give up on Seattle (obviously based on this number), but I still think this team can be a contender. Why? They have a tremendous defense, a very good quarterback, and a very good coach. Sure, they have shortcomings in other areas, but those three things will get you a long way in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans have to prove to me that they have taken the next step. They were beaten soundly at home in week one against the Raiders. Tennessee isn't a bad team, but I don't think they should be laying a field goal against a team with the upside of the Seahawks.
The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games at home. Tennessee is 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 following a win.
Seattle is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when on a two or more game ATS losing streak.
I think Seattle's defense has a big game here, and I see this being a close game. I'll take the 3 points with the better defense and the team with a bunch of veteran leadership.
|09-24-17||Falcons v. Lions OVER 50.5||30-26||Win||100||20 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one.
Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw.
On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too.
Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more).
Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one.
Take the over.
|09-17-17||Redskins v. Rams OVER 45||27-20||Win||100||14 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.
The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense.
The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.
In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests.
Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.
Take the over.
|09-17-17||Cardinals v. Colts +7.5||16-13||Win||100||33 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Sharp Money Side* The Indianapolis Colts were absolutely throttled last week by the LA Rams. They couldn't have possibly looked any worse. Scott Tolzien was absolutely awful, and finally the team realized they have to bench him. Jacoby Brissett gets the start this week, and he can't do any worse than Tolzien. He has question marks, but he has a higher upside as well.
NFL teams typically bounce back after blowout losses. How about this system? Teams who lost by 19 points or more last game and are getting 33% of the spread bets or less (the Colts are getting 28% as of Saturday morning when I type this) are cashing at a 58% clip in the past ten years. Apply a filter of a home underdog of 3 points or more and the win rate jumps to 61% ATS.
The sharp money is clearly on Indianapolis here. Currently, more than 65% of the money is on the Colts here despite only 28% of the bets being on them.
Carson Palmer is near the end of his career, and the Cardinals just lost one of the best running backs in the NFL. They also are without John Brown at wide receiver and Mike Iupati on the offensive line this week.
I'm counting on the Colts to show some heart and make this a close one.
|09-17-17||Patriots v. Saints OVER 56||36-20||Push||0||32 h 60 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.
Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.
The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome?
Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.
The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle.
Take the over.
|09-17-17||Patriots v. Saints +7||36-20||Loss||-115||10 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Saints ATS* The New Orleans Saints are a big home underdog to the New England Patriots here. 80% of the bets in this game are on the Patriots. The betting public is thinking- how could this Patriots franchise play so badly in two straight games? I'll be the first to say I'm not excited to go against the Patriots at any time, but this number is too inflated for me too pass it up here.
The Patriots are missing Edelman, Amendola and Hightower (LB and best defender) for this game. Those are key.
The Saints are still a very good team at home ATS, and they are almost never disrespected in this way by the oddsmakers on their home field.
In week 2 and 3 of the NFL season, underdogs of 2.5 points or more who are also getting 38% of public bets or less are hitting at a 58.5% clip in the last ten seasons.
Drew Brees is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 as a home underdog as a Saint. The Saints also fit a system of home underdogs coming off a week one loss that is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 games.
The Super Bowl Champion from the previous year is also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when they are playing their first road game of the season and are favored.
In a game where I see it be closing all the way, I'll grab the points with the home underdog.
Take New Orleans.
|09-17-17||Bears +7 v. Bucs||7-29||Loss||-110||10 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Bears* The Chicago Bears have one game under their belts and I think that is a positive here. Chicago ran the ball really well in week one, and I like Jordan Howard quite a bit in this backfield.
Tampa Bay is in a very weird situation. They essentially had a bye week on week one, and now are playing their first game. There's a lot of destruction in the area and these players have a lot more on their minds than football right now.
The Bucs are a better team than the Bears, but a full 7 points in this situation doesn't make sense to me. Dogs cover at a high rate in weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL historically, and I think this is a number that has gotten out of control.
The Bucs are 21-45-1 ATS in their last 67 home games.
|09-10-17||Falcons v. Bears UNDER 49||23-17||Win||100||32 h 45 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals.
The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year.
I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.
The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.
Take the under.
|09-10-17||Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 41.5||20-0||Win||100||20 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.
Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one.
Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points.
I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.
In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.
The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.
Take the under.
|09-10-17||Jets +8.5 v. Bills||12-21||Loss||-108||11 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Value Play* No, I don't think the New York Jets are a good football team. They're going to have a very bad season. Still, I have to back them with this many points against a Buffalo Bills team that isn't good either.
In week one in the NFL in the past five years, underdogs of 6.5 points or more are cashing at a 60% clip. It makes sense to me. Even bad teams fight hard in week one, because everyone starts 0-0. Later in the season there are plenty of teams who are tanking or at least not putting in the full effort.
Buffalo has all kinds of question marks. They should be good running the football, but McCoy has been dealing with a nagging injury. The Jets defense should be pretty good against the run as well.
Last year, the Jets beat the Bills twice. The sharps are clearly on the Jets in this one. While 55% of the bets are on the Bills, about 80% of the money is on the Jets. I'll back the ugly underdog given this many points.
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two.
Take the Jets.
|01-22-17||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||17-36||Loss||-100||14 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star Steelers/Patriots ATS CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won nine straight games. This team takes a back seat to no one when it comes to talent. Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell is the best running back in the NFL. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger is certainly a top six or eight NFL quarterback as well.
The Steelers defense deserves credit for the way they have come on late in the season. Pittsburgh has allowed only 5.2 yards per play in their last three games. They allowed only 4.6 yards per play last week at Kansas City. Pittsburgh has some play makers on this side of the ball as well, and Ryan Shazier is a very underrated linebacker for the Steelers.
New England has faced the second weakest schedule in the NFL this year. The Patriots are obviously an excellent team, but I believe they are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers here. Obviously, the oddsmakers have to set the line pretty high, because the Patriots have been so good against the spread, and public bettors are going to want to lay the points with New England.
While I believe the Patriots defense has been good this year, this is definitely the best offense they have gone up against this season. I'll be surprised if Pittsburgh can't score a solid amount of points here.
I think Pittsburgh has a real shot at winning this thing outright, and I believe this game will go down to the wire, so I definitely like the Steelers and the points.
The Steelers are 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 January games. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference championship games.
|01-15-17||Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45||18-16||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star Steelers/Chiefs CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Kansas City. This game time was changed because of the likelihood of freezing rain earlier in the day.
Even with the time change, the weather won't be good for this game. There is currently listed a 90% chance of rain Sunday night. The wind gusts will be up to 12 mph, which certainly isn't a lot, but it can make it more difficult to throw, especially when combined with the rain.
The time change did move some people to bet the over, and give us a little more value on the under here. The number was 43.5 earlier today, but has now risen to 45 at several books.
Ben Roethlisberger was dinged up playing late into the game last week despite the Steelers holding a big lead. Whether he is 100% or not no one really knows, but the weather will make it tougher on him.
I expect Kansas City to play a little bit of keep away here. They know Pittsburgh's offense is very good, and I think Kansas City will want to win the time of possession battle and keep Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown off the field.
The Chiefs defense excels at rushing the passer, and Justin Houston is healthy now. The Chiefs defense wasn't nearly as healthy in their first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh.
Both of these defenses played their best football late in the year.
The under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games.
Take the under.
|01-08-17||Dolphins v. Steelers -10||12-30||Win||100||44 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Dolphins/Steelers CASH* The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 in their last 9 games. If you take a deeper look at the statistics though, you will see that Miami hasn't been that good during that span. The Dolphins have been outgained in 7 of their last 9 games. They haven't outgained a team by more than 14 yards in the past ten weeks! Miami's defense ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Miami was second worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The Dolphins should have trouble slowing down Le'Veon Bell here. The Steelers have Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown all healthy for this playoff showdown.
The Dolphins won at home against Pittsburgh in the regular season, but this Pittsburgh team is playing on a different level right now.
Miami comes in with a backup quarterback and a beaten up secondary. Pittsburgh is definitely a team capable of making a Super Bowl run. The Steelers should coast to a win in this one.
It should be noted as well that Pittsburgh played a top five strength of schedule this year, while Miami's was one of the weakest five.
I don't normally lay double digits in the playoffs, but I feel it is warranted here. Take Pittsburgh.
|01-07-17||Raiders v. Texans -3.5||14-27||Win||100||62 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Saturday Wildcard CASH* The Houston Texans start Brock Osweiler in this Wild Card showdown. Do I trust Osweiler? Not really. This play is made in spite of him being at quarterback.
Connor Cook starts for the Oakland Raiders. His first career NFL start comes in the playoffs and on the road. That is certainly not an ideal spot for him. While I don't trust Osweiler, there are at least as many reasons to not trust Cook here. Houston's defense is first in the NFL by a mile in yards per play allowed in the last 3 games of the year. Houston allowed only 4.0 yards per play in those games. There's no doubt this Houston defense is a top ten NFL defense even without Watt, and their secondary is one of the 3 or 4 best in the NFL.
How about the Oakland defense? They are awful. Oakland finished dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed for the year. They gave up 6.1 yards per play. Derek Carr and the offense were able to mask that major weakness, but can Connor Cook? I don't think so. Oakland is giving up 12.56 yards per pass on the year, and the Raiders certainly could give some big plays up here. Houston does have some play making wide receivers.
Huge mismatch when it comes to the defenses, and Houston has a nice home field advantage. The Raiders have no playoff experience, while Houston does have some experience in these spots.
|01-01-17||Giants v. Redskins OVER 44.5||19-10||Loss||-115||60 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Washington Redskins are averaging 6.7 yards per play on the season. Washington has been able to move the ball very consistently this year. New York's defense is good, but they are also without several top players now.
Jason Pierre Paul is out for this one. Janoris Jenkins is doubtful for this one. They have several other guys questionable here. Why would those guys play if they are hurt? The Giants can't improve their playoff standing no matter what.
Washington needs this game badly, and the Redskins offense should pile up the points. The Redskins have routinely been gaining 400 yards of total offense in their matchups with New York, and I think they will again here.
At the same time, Ben McAdoo said Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will play here. The Redskins defense isn't good. Washington ranks in the bottom 8 in the league in all defensive categories. New York's offense has been better in recent weeks.
This number is too low. I see a good weather forecast for this one and a game that should get to 50 points or so. Take the over.
|01-01-17||Saints +8 v. Falcons||32-38||Win||100||17 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New Orleans Saints have shown that they aren't giving up on the season. New Orleans won at Arizona two weeks ago and then won at home last week against a Tampa Bay team with more to play for.
I think the Saints will put in a good effort here against an Atlanta Falcons team that they really don't like. These two rivals typically play very hard against each other, and the underdog has been the way to go in this series.
Atlanta certainly has a lot to play for here, but the Falcons defense gives up quite a bit, and the Saints are obviously a very good indoor team. I think both teams score a lot here. The backdoor could be open as well with the Saints scoring potential.
The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 14-0 angle.
Take New Orleans.
|01-01-17||Texans v. Titans UNDER 40.5||17-24||Loss||-110||14 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans meet in week 17. Tennessee is out of the playoffs and Houston is in once again.
Marcus Mariota is out which means Matt Cassel will start for the Titans. Cassel is definitely a big downgrade for the Titans, and I think we see an even more conservative game plan from Tennessee in this game. The Titans play a slow tempo and run the ball a lot, both of which are good for the under.
Houston's defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last five weeks. This defense is excellent, and I see them playing well again here.
Tom Savage hasn't turned the ball over a bunch, but I wasn't very impressed with him last week in the Texans win over the Bengals either. Savage checked down constantly and I see very few big plays from Houston here.
The under is a perfect 6-0 in the Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Take the under.
|01-01-17||Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42.5||24-27||Loss||-105||14 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet in the regular season finale. Expected to rest for the Steelers are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Mike Pouncey. That's their best offensive players, and even against the Browns without those guys I think the Steelers offense will look like a shell of itself.
Cleveland's offense wasn't any good last week either. The Browns are second to last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. Only the Rams are worse than them during that period.
The Steelers defense is only allowing 4.9 yards per play in the last 3 games, and they have been much better down the stretch.
With Landry Jones and Robert Griffin III as the quarterbacks, I see a sloppy low scoring game here.
The under is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 after allowing 350 yards or more. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during week 17 of the season. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 week 17 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 30 points the previous game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 28-0 angle.
Take the under.
|12-26-16||Lions v. Cowboys OVER 44||21-42||Win||100||88 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions rank 10th and 12th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is a very balanced offense with Dak Prescott doing a great job at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliot already as one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL.
Detroit's offense is reliant on the passing game. Matt Stafford has been very good this year, and his finger injury is reportedly much better than it was last week. The Cowboys secondary takes a lot of chances, which means they could easily pick some off, but they could also give up some big plays.
Dallas is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Detroit is 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. These two defenses are both below the league average in many key advanced statistics.
I think we have a line that is too low thanks the Lions going on a big under run of late. This game isn't being played in bad weather like Detroit's game last week. It is in the dome, and this is a great environment for points. We'll look to profit from the overreaction in the line.
Take the over.
|12-25-16||Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs||10-33||Loss||-115||31 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Broncos/Chiefs ATS CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos meet in an all important battle in KC on Sunday night. Denver had almost 200 yards more than Kansas City in their meeting earlier this year. The Broncos found a way to lose that game, and they'll need to get a win here in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't a team I like to lay points with. Kansas City plays a lot of close games, and their offense is very mediocre. The Chiefs running game has been disappointing in recent weeks.
The Broncos offense certainly isn't very good either. Denver needs to get some type of running game going here.
The difference to me is the Broncos definitely have the better defense. The Broncos are excellent against the pass, and the Chiefs are unlikely to be able to run for too much against them.
In a game with a total of 37 points, getting 3.5 points holds clear value. Look for a close game all the way here. Grab the points and take Denver.
|12-24-16||Bengals v. Texans -118||10-12||Win||100||25 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Christmas Eve CASH* The Cincinnati Bengals put a lot into last week's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati played really well in the first half, and then no showed in the second half. The offense couldn't get anything going against Pittsburgh after their first three drives.
A.J. Green is expected to be back here, but I don't think he is 100 percent. The Texans defense is one of the top ten in the NFL even without J.J. Watt. Also very important to note is Tyler Eifert is expected to miss this game. Eifert is way more important to this Bengals team than most people realize. He opens up the rest of the field because teams have to respect his pass catching ability over the middle. Without him, the Bengals are hurting a lot.
Cincinnati's defense is banged up right now, and the Houston offense got a big shot in arm last week when Tom Savage entered the game. I'm not going to pretend to think that Tom Savage is the next Tom Brady, but it won't be hard to do better than Osweiler has been doing for this team. The Texans have very good wide receivers, and all Savage has to do is manage the game.
Cincinnati is out of the playoffs, and the Bengals have nothing to play for. The Texans are fighting hard here, and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Bengals.
Look for the more motivated team to win this one. Take Houston.
|12-24-16||Redskins v. Bears OVER 47.5||41-21||Win||100||18 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears might have found something in Matt Barkley. His numbers are really impressive since taking over, and you have to remember that he has been playing in some really bad conditions during that time. Barkley has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the four games he has started.
In this one, Barkley will be up against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not impressed by this Redskins defense other than their ability to get after the quarterback. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get some big plays on the outside.
The Bears defense is beaten up, but they have fought hard. Still, Chicago is likely to give up quite a bit here. Washington is first in the NFL in yards per play on the road. They are third in yards per play overall. This is an offense that is well balanced and has big play ability.
The weather is usually a negative this time of the year in Chicago, and I think that has kept the total down. This time around though it is expected to be 33 degrees with almost no wind. That's as good as you can ask for.
The over is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 games after a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 23-0 angle. Take the over.
|12-19-16||Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50.5||26-15||Loss||-110||19 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play.
This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also.
As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year.
The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games.
The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over.
|12-18-16||49ers v. Falcons OVER 51||13-41||Win||100||146 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game.
San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over.
The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game.
The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year.
Take the over.
|12-18-16||Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 45||24-20||Win||100||20 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under.
Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos.
Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games.
The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's.
Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle.
I think both defenses play well here. Take the under.
|12-18-16||Lions v. Giants UNDER 40||6-17||Win||100||12 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball.
There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit.
The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games.
The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse.
Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday.
The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under.
|12-12-16||Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 45||23-30||Loss||-108||20 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well.
It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important.
Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit.
The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else.
Take the under in this one.
|12-11-16||Seahawks v. Packers +3||10-38||Win||100||17 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star SEA/GB Afternoon MONEY* The Green Bay Packers are 15-1 straight up in their last 16 home games in the month of December. This is a team that is definitely good at using the elements at Lambeau Field to their advantage. With light snow forecast for this game, it is another opportunity for them to do that again here.
It is very rare to find Green Bay as a home underdog, and with these conditions it makes me like the value even more. Aaron Rodgers has played much better of late, and Rodgers and the Green Bay offense should be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence from the Seattle secondary.
Thomas has been one of the most underrated players in the NFL for many years now, and I think his injury knocks this defense down a notch or two.
Seattle isn't a great road team. Remember, they have lost road games at Los Angeles and Tampa Bay already this year. This is a difficult spot against a Green Bay team that has to win this game based on their disappointing start to the season.
Take Green Bay and the points.
|12-11-16||Steelers v. Bills UNDER 47||27-20||Push||0||72 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home.
The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo.
Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here.
Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming.
The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride.
Take the under.
|12-11-16||Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43||Top||23-10||Win||100||72 h 53 m||Show|
*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way.
The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played.
Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games.
Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill.
Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here.
A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help.
Take the under big.
*Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.*
|12-11-16||Cardinals -2 v. Dolphins||23-26||Loss||-105||15 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Arizona Cardinals don't have the record to show for it, but I still believe they are a top eight team in the NFL. The statistics suggest that to be the case as well.
Arizona leads the NFL in yardage differential. It's pretty amazing that a team with a losing record could be in that standing, but the Cardinals are. Arizona is outgaining teams by 0.5 yard per play, which is sixth best in the NFL. Arizona has the second ranked overall defense in the NFL. They are also second in the NFL behind only Denver in yards per play allowed.
David Johnson has been tremendous in the backfield for the Cardinals, and I'm not sure the Dolphins defense can stop the Cardinals here. Miami's defense ranks third worst in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. They are giving up 4.65 yards per rush.
Look for the Cardinals to establish the run and then get some big play action passes in this one.
Miami's offensive line is struggling right now, and this Cardinals defensive front should give them a lot of trouble. Miami has had a lot of close wins over bad teams this year, and the Cardinals are underrated now.
The Dolphins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Take Arizona here.
|12-11-16||Chargers v. Panthers OVER 49||16-28||Loss||-110||14 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better.
Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here.
Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense.
The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the over.
|12-08-16||Raiders v. Chiefs -3||13-21||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Oakland Raiders are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Oakland defense is going to end up costing this team in big games at some point. I think it is here.
Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. The Chiefs will have a raucous environment for this primetime game. They'll have another big advantage here too and that is the weather. Oakland is clearly not accustomed to the 18 degree temperatures they'll be playing on during this game. Derek Carr is a good quarterback, but he went to college in Fresno and now plays in Oakland. He is likely to be hurt by the conditions here, and he's also up against a ball hawking secondary that will take advantage of every mistake he makes.
Though there have been more bets on the Raiders, there is more money on the Chiefs so far in this one. I believe the Chiefs at home are the sharp side. The Chiefs are just one game back in the division standings. They need this game. I think they get it.
Take Kansas City.
|12-04-16||Bills v. Raiders OVER 48||Top||24-38||Win||100||36 h 36 m||Show|
*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage.
Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL.
Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game.
These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low.
The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big.
|12-04-16||Lions +7 v. Saints||28-13||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* I'm fading the steam in this situation. This line has been steamed up to the all important number of 7. Detroit isn't getting the respect from the betting market that they deserve. The Lions sit atop the NFC North at 7-4 on the year. Detroit won at Indianapolis early in the year and they won in Minnesota a few weeks ago in overtime. They do have three losses on the road, but none of them are by more than a touchdown. In fact, the Lions have lost four games, and not a single one of those has been by more than 7 points. Detroit has been involved in close games all year, and there is no reason to expect this one to be any different.
New Orleans put a lot into last week's game to get back at Gregg Williams (former DC in New Orleans). The Saints play at Tampa Bay next weekend in a key NFC South game. I also don't like the potential for team chemistry issues with Brandin Cooks throwing a fit about the lack of passes he has had thrown his way of late. Things like that can be a bigger deal than they first appear.
While New Orleans has improved on defense, much of that improvement is in the run defense. Detroit is going to be throwing it around with Matt Stafford here. Stafford has played well this year, and I think he keeps the Lions right in this game.
Take Detroit plus the points.
|12-04-16||Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens||6-38||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins have won six games in a row. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 8 games. Miami certainly comes in here with confidence, and this time of the year confidence is ultra important.
Miami has become a different team with the success of Jay Ajayi in the backfield. Miami played without two key offensive linemen last weekend, but they will be back in the lineup for this game. The Dolphins have been able to take the pressure off Ryan Tannehill, and that has made him play much better.
Baltimore has a quality defense, but this Ravens offense has really struggled of late. The Ravens average the least amount of yards per completion of any team in the NFL. Joe Flacco is playing with very little confidence right now, and the Dolphins have the front seven to pressure Flacco in this one. Note that Cameron Wake has been a monster of late for the Dolphins. He was banged up early in the year, but now that he is healthy, he has been superb.
Miami is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog when playing against a team with revenge. Baltimore did lose to Miami by 2 last year, so this system applies in this case. The Ravens are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. an AFC opponent. An 18-0 angle.
|11-27-16||49ers v. Dolphins OVER 45||24-31||Win||100||17 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The San Francisco 49ers play at the fastest pace of anyone in the NFL. The 49ers aren't going to slow down anytime soon. In recent games, the 49ers offense has been improved. Hyde is healthier and Kaepernick is making better decisions with the football.
Miami's offense has been much better since Ajayi emerged as a force in the backfield. The Dolphins should have a big day on the ground in this one. San Francisco is easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 5.17 yards per carry. Ryan Tannehill is capable of making big plays in the passing game when the running game is working well, and I see him getting in some deep passes here.
The Dolphins defense has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year. They are allowing 5.7 yards per play at home this season.
With the pace of the game and the big play ability, I like this one to go over the posted total.
Take the over.
|11-27-16||Jaguars v. Bills UNDER 45||21-28||Loss||-105||17 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Top Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good team, but when you take a closer look at their stats, you have to be impressed with how hard their defense has played. Jacksonville ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 5.0 yards per play. Their numbers are almost identical with Seattle and the LA Rams on defense when it comes to yards per play.Jacksonville is allowing less per pass completion than any other team in the league, and they are allowing a solid 3.94 yards per carry.
The Buffalo defense has improved in recent weeks. They have gotten healthier and they are allowing 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Last week against Cincinnati, this Bills defense was playing at an elite level. Blake Bortles has regressed as a quarterback, and I don't see him being able to beat this Bills secondary. The Bills defensive line has an edge up against the Jaguars offensive front as well.
Neither of these teams play particularly fast, and I think we'll see both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone here.
Take the under in this one.
|11-27-16||Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 40.5||14-19||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals should have some serious problems on offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. Andy Dalton and company looked lost on offense in the second half at home against Buffalo last week. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.0. The Ravens have been a better defense than Buffalo all season. The Ravens are playing their best defense of the year lately. Baltimore is allowing only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.
Baltimore's offense has been terrible this year. The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.0. They are at 4.8 yards per play at home this year. What about Cincinnati's offense? The Bengals are at 5.9 yards per play at home and 5.5 on the road. Interestingly, the Bengals are at only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.
Cincinnati is badly banged up on offense, but their defense is getting healthier. I don't see Baltimore being able to pick up many big plays against this Cincinnati defense this weekend. On the other side, I see Cincinnati's offense getting more conservative and running the ball more. Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.
The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last 6 home games. Take the under.
|11-20-16||Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51||30-17||Loss||-105||38 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and it isn't close. Chip Kelly's team is going to keep playing the same way. The offense is getting a little better as the season moves along, but this San Francisco defense is just terrible. The 49ers defense was never good this year, but after injuries they have really fallen off badly.
San Francisco is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the year. That is 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. The 49ers are allowing 6.7 yards per play in their last 3 contests, which ranks dead last in the NFL. New England is middle of the pack at 5.5 yards per play allowed.
The Patriots are 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.0. That includes the time without Brady though, and this is clearly a top three offense in the NFL. San Francisco is averaging 4.9 yards per play on the year, but in their last 3 contests they have gained a very respectable 5.7 yards per play.
In the 49ers last 8 games, only one has fallen below this number. New England should put up a big number here, and the 49ers should do enough.
Take the over.
|11-20-16||Cardinals v. Vikings UNDER 40||24-30||Loss||-100||13 h 27 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* In this one we have a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Arizona is first in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.9. It all starts up front for both of these defenses. I see both defensive lines having the upper hand against the opposing offensive front.
Sam Bradford hasn't done a terrible job in this Vikings system, but he can't make plays on his own. The Vikings running game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals should get a good pass rush here. Carson Palmer is having a disappointing season for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have leaned on their running game of late, but I expect the Vikings front seven to slow down Arizona's rushing attack.
While only a little more than 50% of the bets placed on this game have been on the under, about 90% of the money is on the under. The under looks like the sharp side here. Take the under.
|11-20-16||Titans v. Colts OVER 52.5||17-24||Loss||-110||13 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in Nashville in their meeting earlier this year. This game will be played in the dome at Indy, where the conditions are even more favorable for an over.
Andrew Luck should find plenty of open receivers against a Titans secondary that is worse than the league average. As long as Luck has time to throw, he can pick this team apart. The Colts offensive line has been slightly better in recent weeks.
Marcus Mariota has played much better in recent weeks. This Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans should be able to run it and throw it against this unit.
The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. While the public does like the over, the sharps like it as well. This is a rare situation where both the public and sharp are on the same side.
The over is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 vs. an AFC foe. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AFC South. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 vs. the AFC South. A 29-0 angle.
Take the over.
|11-13-16||Vikings v. Redskins UNDER 42.5||20-26||Loss||-106||12 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Vikings have played 8 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was a 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. Minnesota's defense is tremendous, and I expect a strong effort from them here. On the other side, their offense is a mess.
Minnesota's big problem on offense is their offensive line. This offensive front has been abused time and time again this year. The Vikings have given up 4.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. Washington has a weak defense, but the one strength they have is their defensive line. Washington is 7th in the NFL in most sacks. Look for the Redskins defensive line to be in the backfield a lot in this game.
While about 60% of the bets on this game are on the over (the public loves to play overs), 61% of the money thus far is on the under.
The under is 15-5-1 in the Vikings last 21 road games. Take the under.
|11-13-16||Chiefs v. Panthers -3||20-17||Loss||-117||11 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Carolina Panthers are turning things around. This line is very telling because you have a 3-5 team laying 3 points to a 6-2 team. Clearly, the oddsmakers don't want to underrate Carolina again like they did last season.
Carolina's defense has struggled so far this year, but it has been their pass defense that has been a problem rather than the run defense. In fact, Carolina ranks number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Alex Smith isn't a bad quarterback, but he also isn't a guy who picks apart secondaries on a regular basis. Jeremy Maclin is also out for this contest, which is a huge hit to the KC passing game.
Carolina lost a lot of close games early in the year, and this team is coming on of late. Carolina is healthier than Kansas City right now also. The Chiefs are without Jamaal Charles in the running game, and Justin Houston is out on the defensive side.
This game is expected to be played in rain. That likely means more running plays than normal and while the Panthers are first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, the Chiefs are 30th.
Carolina needs every game at this point, and I give them several key advantages here. Take Carolina.
|11-13-16||Bears v. Bucs OVER 45||10-36||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in tempo this season. Chicago ranks 13th in the NFL in pace. A total set at only 45 is pretty low for two teams playing at that kind of pace without a really good defense involved. Neither of these defenses would qualify as a really good defense.
Tampa Bay's secondary is terrible. The Bucs are allowing 12.65 yards per pass completion so far this year, which is second worst in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also been a penalty machine on defense. The Bears will get some major help from Tampa Bay penalties on defense here.
Chicago's defense is mediocre. Tampa Bay's offense gets much better this week when Mike Evans is in the lineup, and there is hope that Doug Martin will play as well.
Jay Cutler has been an upgrade for the Bears since coming back, and he throws a good deep ball. Cutler should make some big plays here, and he could also throw some to the other team for a quick score, as his judgement has never been very good.
Tampa Bay is playing in their third straight home game. In their last 10 times playing a third straight home contest, the over is 9-1. Take the over here.
|11-10-16||Browns +10 v. Ravens||7-28||Loss||-115||20 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Browns/Ravens CASH* The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, on a short week, they host the winless Cleveland Browns. If there was ever a spot to look past a team, this is it.
Teams have not fared well after playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is likely because of the Steelers extremely physical nature. The Ravens and Steelers hate each other, and that battle always takes a lot out of both teams. How about this trend? Teams are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after playing Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers.
There are a couple more trends backing the Browns plus the points here. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Cleveland. The Ravens are also an awful 3-12-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or more against a team from the AFC North.
Cleveland isn't good, but all 8 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a single digit margin. It's a letdown spot for Baltimore, and I think they'll win, but it will be closer than 10. Take Cleveland plus the points.
|11-06-16||Saints v. 49ers OVER 51||41-23||Win||100||136 h 27 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL by a wide margin. Chip Kelly's team is coming off a bye week. That should be a positive for the offense. I expect the offense, which hasn't been very good at all, to have a better game plan ready for this one.
The Saints play at the fourth fastest tempo of any team in the league. New Orleans still has a terrible defense. The Saints are giving up 6.2 yards per play on the year, which is 28th in the NFL. The Saints aren't very good against the run or the pass.
San Francisco's defense was bad to start with, but injuries to Navarro Bowman, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Aaron Lynch from the linebacker positions have really hit the team hard. The 49ers have allowed 33 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. This Saints offense is arguably the best offense they have gone up against yet.
Drew Brees is playing well, and Brees has a ton of weapons around him. The 49ers have no home field advantage now, and I see the Saints putting up a big number. The sheer volume of plays makes me think the 49ers will get their points as well.
The over is 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in the 49ers last 7 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two in San Francisco. A 22-0 angle.
Take the over.
|11-06-16||Jets +4 v. Dolphins||23-27||Push||0||12 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* This selection is all about the Dolphins being undeserving of laying four points. Miami isn't a very good team, and they have proven to be terrible when laying points at home. How about this stat? The Miami Dolphins are 13-42-1 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Basically, the Dolphins are terrible as home favorites. Miami is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. They are also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC East.
The Jets run defense is solid. Miami's offense has improved of late thanks to Jay Ajayi, but I trust the Jets to hold him down pretty well here. The weakness of the Jets is their secondary, but can Ryan Tannehill really take advantage of that weakness?
The Jets have played a bit better in recent weeks, and it should be noted their early season schedule was very difficult. I'm going to grab the points in a game that should be close all the way. Take the New York Jets.
|11-03-16||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 50.5||43-28||Win||100||19 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Thursday Red Hot CASH* The Atlanta Falcons offense is averaging 13.01 yards per pass completion so far this year. That's a yard better than the second best team in the NFL in that category (Patriots). Atlanta's Matt Ryan has taken a big step forward this year in terms of consistency. It helps that he has an improved offensive line and some tremendous deep weapons in the passing game.
This is a good matchup for Ryan to have a big game also. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 12.59 yards per completion, which is second worst in the NFL (behind only the Browns). The Bucs secondary was torched last weekend by Derek Carr and the Raiders, and I think the same thing will happen here.
Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston has been up and down this year, but he has been good against the Falcons in the past, and the Atlanta defense is still subpar.
Atlanta is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay is 25th in that number. Atlanta is easily first in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.8 yards per play.
The over is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games. The over is 7-3 in the Bucs last 10. Take the over here.
|10-30-16||Raiders v. Bucs OVER 49||30-24||Win||100||20 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Bucs meet in a game that I expect to be a back and forth high scoring contest. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.7. Tampa Bay's defense ranks 17th at 5.6 yards per play allowed.
It is important to note that both of these teams like to throw it around. Oakland is passing on 61.31% of their plays so far this year. Tampa Bay is throwing it on 58.92% of their plays. Both secondaries have some major problems. Oakland is allowing a league worst 12.74 yards per completion. Tampa Bay is 4th worst in the NFL at 12.65.
Both Carr and Winston are fully capable of completing the long pass, and they both have a lot of weapons on the outside. I see both teams having some big gainers through the air in this game.
Tampa Bay ranks near the top of the NFL in pace of play, which is a big bonus as well. Weather shouldn't be a factor here.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over.
|10-30-16||Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47||20-30||Win||102||12 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Carolina Panthers come off a bye week and try to get their season turned around here. They have a long way to go, but I have to think the Panthers are going to play better the rest of the way.
While the Arizona defense is definitely good, they could be a little worn down because of a multitude of injuries and having to play an overtime game (five full quarters) late last Sunday night. The Panthers have the weapons on the outside to break some big plays in the passing game.
Carson Palmer has always thrown a good deep ball in his career until this season. He'll get more chances to air it out deep here though, and I think he'll connect on some of them. Carolina is allowing opponents 12.72 yards per pass (only Cleveland and Oakland have been worse). The Panthers secondary is the single biggest reason they are 1-5 right now.
The bets are about 50/50 on this one, but the money is 79% on the over. That indicates sharp action on the over. With no weather issues here, I'll take the over.
|10-30-16||Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48||20-25||Loss||-100||11 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints defense is still terrible. The Saints are allowing 6.1 yards per play on the year. Seattle's offense has struggled to get going at times this year, but they should get things rolling just fine against this Saints defense. Seattle did put up 26 against Atlanta, 27 against the Jets, and 37 against the 49ers.
New Orleans' offense is still very good. Drew Brees is excellent at finding open spots in the coverage. He'll go against a good Seahawks secondary here, but I think Seattle's aggressive nature could lead them to get beaten deep some by the Saints in this one.
New Orleans plays at the 4th fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. The Saints have a way of making every game high scoring, especially when they are on the fast turf of the Superdome.
Seattle's offensive woes of late led to this total being this low, but it just creates value when the number is this low on a game involving the Saints.
The over is 8-0-1 in the Saints last 9 home games. Take the over.
|10-23-16||Bucs v. 49ers OVER 45||34-17||Win||100||47 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers continue to push the tempo under Chip Kelly. The 49ers are playing at what is easily the fastest tempo in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick is likely a better long term fit in the offense than Blaine Gabbert. Look for him to run the football occasionally, and be able to keep some plays alive in the passing game because of his ability to scramble around.
Jameis Winston has been up and down this year. The 49ers defense is definitely one of the worst in the NFL, and I see this as a great chance for Winston to have a big game. Tampa Bay has also preferred to play at a quick pace so far this year. They should be happy to get into a high scoring affair. The injury to Navarro Bowman makes the 49ers defense much weaker than it was before, and it wasn't good even with him.
Four of the 49ers first six games went over this total and three of the Bucs first five have gone over this total.
Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 13.57 yards per pass completion this year (worst in the NFL). I'll look for some big plays on offense from the 49ers. San Francisco is giving up 11.34 yards per pass on the year.
Take the over.
|10-23-16||Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons||33-30||Win||100||44 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Atlanta Falcons have been through a really tough period on their schedule of late. Atlanta played at New Orleans, home against Carolina, at Denver, and finally at Seattle last weekend. Last week's loss had to be deflating to them as well. Atlanta probably should have won that game.
Now, Atlanta comes home to play the San Diego Chargers, who are 2-4 on the year. This is definitely a sandwich spot game. Next week, Atlanta has a big game against Green Bay.
San Diego has been playing everyone tough so far this year. They have four losses, but none of them have been by more than 6 points. The Chargers also had extra rest here since they played last Thursday. That's a big positive for a team that has been badly banged up.
I think Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense can keep pace with Atlanta and make this one a game that goes down to the wire. With Phillip Rivers at quarterback, the Chargers are 14-4 ATS when they are 6.5 point or larger underdogs.
Take San Diego.
|10-23-16||Vikings -3 v. Eagles||10-21||Loss||-100||43 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* I'm not going to overthink this one. The Eagles were never as good as they looked in the first couple weeks. Philadelphia was completely dominated by Washington last week. The score was close, but look at the box score and you'll see how that game really went. The Eagles had only 12 first downs compared to 26 for Washington. The Redskins rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense in that game.
Minnesota has been tremendous all year, and they are coming off a bye week. Minnesota has a tremendous coach in Mike Zimmer, and with him leading the way I feel confident they will be ready to play with two weeks of preparation.
The weather could play a role in this game. Heavy winds throughout will make running the football important, and the Vikings rushing defense is excellent. I expect the Vikings defensive line to dominate the Eagles offensive front, especially since the Eagles are without Lane Johnson (suspended). Washington's defensive line dominated the Eagles O-Line last weekend, and Minnesota's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL.
The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of October. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 19-0 angle. Take Minnesota.
|10-16-16||Falcons v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5||24-26||Loss||-115||37 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is still a force to be reckoned with, and they are well-rested and healthy right now. This Seattle team has a lot of pride, and they have definitely heard all about how great the Falcons passing attack is all week long.
Atlanta's passing attack has been tremendous this year. They lead the league by a wide margin in passing yards per play, but I see them struggling with two things this week. First, I think they will have a tough time with the Seahawks secondary, which is obviously very strong. Secondly, the weather will hurt them here. Steady rain and winds of 20 mph through the game will make it much harder than normal for Matt Ryan to throw the deep ball.
Seattle prefers to play at a slow tempo and win a lower scoring game. I like Seattle's chances to win this game, and I think they'll get the type of game they want in this contest. The windy rainy weather helps Seattle, and I don't see the Falcons being able to move the ball nearly as consistently as they normally would.
The public is playing the over here, but the sharp money has taken a big position on the under. I agree with that, and I'm on the under here as well.
The under is 23-9-1 in the Falcons last 33 games. The under is 7-3 in Seattle's last 10. Take the under.
|10-16-16||Chiefs -119 v. Raiders||Top||26-10||Win||100||37 h 11 m||Show|
*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Oakland Raiders are 4-1, but they haven't proven to me that they are a good team. Oakland has a bunch of flaws. The Raiders defense, which many expected to be better, is allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play. That is worst in the NFL by half a yard. That tells me that despite not being put in bad positions (short fields) the Raiders defense is letting the opposition do whatever they want.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played well so far this year. Expectations were really high for them coming into the season. Andy Reid has been amazing at getting his team ready after a bye week. Reid's teams are 15-2 straight up in this situation, which is what matters to us, taking the moneyline in this game.
Jamaal Charles is expected to get a heavier workload here, and that should be important with rain and 15-20 mph winds expected during this game. The Oakland Raiders rely heavily on David Carr and his arm, so I believe the weather gives us another advantage with Kansas City.
Latavius Murray isn't expected to play for Oakland here. The Raiders have been terrible at home in the last few years, and they have been fortunate to win at least two of their games so far this year.
Look for Kansas City to come to Oakland ready to play. The Chiefs better ground game and their preparation off a bye are the big keys in this game where weather will play a role.
Take Kansas City on the moneyline. NFL Game of the MONTH
|10-16-16||Panthers v. Saints OVER 53||38-41||Win||100||17 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers get together in a game that has all the makings of a shootout. This one is played on the fast track at the Superdome, which is a definite positive for the over. Last year, when these two played at the Superdome, the final was Carolina 41 and New Orleans 38.
Cam Newton has been cleared to play for the Panthers here. Newton has gotten off to a slow start this year, but if there was ever a good spot to bounce back, this is it. The Saints defense is arguably the worst in the NFL, and this secondary gives up big plays constantly.
The Panthers defensive dropoff from last year to this year has been amazing. Carolina is giving up 12.44 yards per pass on the year. Only Oakland and Tampa Bay have been worse in that area. Drew Brees is still more than capable of torching a secondary, and I see him making a lot of big plays in this game.
Big play potential on both sides and no bad weather conditions to deal with. The over is 7-0-1 in the Saints last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over.
|10-09-16||Chargers v. Raiders OVER 50.5||31-34||Win||100||14 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers meet in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams have quarterbacks fully capable of slinging it around and I see a lot of reasons to believe they will both have big games on Sunday.
Phillip Rivers has always been an above average quarterback in the NFL. It has just been a question of the talent around him, most specifically what is going on in front of him on the offensive line. The offensive front is actually healthier than normal for San Diego, and Rivers has had some big games through the air already.
The big problem for San Diego is their secondary. The Chargers will be without a starting safety and their top two cornerbacks for this game. Oakland has good weapons on the outside, and Derek Carr should have a field day here.
At the same time, Oakland is missing safety Nate Allen as well. Rivers is likely to be able to pick apart this Raiders secondary.
Oakland is allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL. San Diego is 6th worst in the league in that measure.
The over is 6-0 in the last 6 in a game played by any team in either the AFC West or NFC West in their first game home following a 2 or more game road trip on the East coast. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 30 points or more. The over is 3-0-1 in the Raiders last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over.
|10-09-16||Redskins v. Ravens OVER 44.5||16-10||Loss||-110||96 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* We've gotten a discount here because of Hurricane Matthew. Matthew was expected to head north toward Baltimore, but the track of the hurricane has changed significantly in the past day. Now, the forecast for Baltimore is sunny on Sunday afternoon.
The line has dropped 1.5 points due to the expected bad weather, and now we are getting a value. I liked the over before the line drop, but wanted to wait on the weather before playing this. Now, I expect this line to climb back up toward gametime on Sunday.
Washington's defense is about as bad as you'll find in the NFL. Opponents are rushing for 4.88 yards per carry against them, and the Redskins secondary has been beaten deep consistently. Joe Flacco loves to throw the deep ball, and this is an opponent he should be able to exploit.
Baltimore's defense didn't look very good against the Raiders last weekend. The Ravens hadn't played a good offense all year until last weekend. Washington isn't a great offense, but they are better on offense than the Browns, Bills, and Jaguars (the Ravens first 3 opponents).
The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. Take the over.
|10-09-16||Titans v. Dolphins UNDER 43.5||30-17||Loss||-110||32 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't impressed me this year. It really doesn't make sense that the team has decided to go to a pro style offense where they run it as often as possible and slow the game down. This is exactly the opposite of what Marcus Mariota was used to running in college. Now, Mariota is clearly regressing, and for some reason people seem surprised. This isn't a good offense for Mariota.
Ryan Tannehill isn't to be trusted either, and the Dolphins offense in general has been really poor this year. Their performance against the Bengals last time out was miserable. They literally got nothing in that game after an early 74 yard touchdown pass. Miami had 8 first downs in that game.
Tennessee is slowing the pace down more than any other team in the NFL so far this year. It's also important to note that 15 mph winds are expected during this game, which is a negative for scoring.
The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Miami.
Take the under.
|10-09-16||Texans v. Vikings UNDER 41||13-31||Loss||-115||32 h 6 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings defense is dominating. Mike Zimmer is a tremendous head coach who still doesn't get enough credit. Minnesota is going to bring a good effort on the defensive end every single game.
Houston's offense doesn't impress at this point, because I don't know what I'll get from Brock Osweiler. The Texans have good pieces at the wide receiver spots, but their offensive line is questionable and their running game is subpar now. Don't expect them to have much success here.
Even without J.J. Watt, this Houston Texans defense is very good. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in yards per carry so far this year. Sam Bradford has been very good in his role, but he'll be pressured a lot in this game by the Texans strong defensive front.
Houston is playing at the 17th fastest pace in the NFL and Minnesota is 28th out of 32 teams. Both defenses have the upper hand.
The under is 5-0 in the Texans last 5 games following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS cover. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after allowing 90 yards or less on the ground. The under is 3-0 in the Vikings last 3 games. A 22-0 angle. Take the under.
|10-09-16||Bears +5 v. Colts||23-29||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts took a big risk when they decided to decline their chance to get a bye week after a trip to London. I think that was a bad decision, and we are likely to see the effects of that in this game.
Indianapolis is often thought of as a good team, because they have won a lot of games in the past 3 years. The Colts are no longer a good team though. Now, we're asking a team that isn't any good to lay 5 points at home after a week of traveling overseas? I have to grab the points with the Bears here.
Andrew Luck is still very good, but the pieces around him are terrible. The offensive line can't protect him. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL.
Chicago's defense is improved this year, and they are getting slightly healthier of late. Their linebackers are some of the best in the NFL. The Bears defense is much better than the Colts defense, and when I can get the much better defense and this many points, I'll grab it.
I consider Brian Hoyer at least equal to if not better than Jay Cutler. The Colts secondary is bad and I expect Hoyer to have success here.
In this game, 55% of the bets are on the Colts, but 65% of the money is on the Bears. Looks like the sharp side to me.
Take Chicago here.
|10-02-16||Panthers -3 v. Falcons||33-48||Loss||-115||34 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* We're getting a discount on the Carolina Panthers this week. Carolina is 1-2 on the season so far. The Panthers losses though have come against two extremely good teams in Denver and Minnesota.
Last week's Panthers loss to the Vikings was a misleading final score as well. The Panthers outgained the Vikings 306 yards to 211, but turnovers cost them. Cam Newton had a terrible day, and he has really been subpar so far this season. He has faced two of the top three defenses in the NFL though in the Broncos and the Vikings.
Atlanta is feeling pretty good about themselves after a win at New Orleans last weekend. The Falcons have been putting up big numbers on offense, but look at who they have played against. The Falcons have gone against the Bucs, Raiders, and Saints thus far. All three of those teams and bottom 10 defenses in the league.
Carolina has a top five defense in the NFL, and I expect things to be much tougher for Matt Ryan and the Falcons in this game.
The fact that Carolina comes into this one 1-2 makes me like this bet even more. This Panthers team was in the Super Bowl last year, and they really don't want to fall to 1-3 here and get two games behind the Falcons in their division.
The Falcons are coming off a short week as well with the Monday Night game in New Orleans as their last game. Carolina is 20-10 ATS in their last 30 following a loss.
|10-02-16||Browns v. Redskins OVER 46.5||20-31||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Browns defense is likely to battle with the New Orleans Saints defense to see who is the worst defense in the NFL this year. Washington's defense isn't much better. Both of these defenses rank in my bottom five defenses in the NFL.
Cody Kessler starts here for the Browns, and while I certainly don't trust him very much, I believe the Browns can move the ball here. Terrelle Pryor has become a weapon for the team, and he should be utilized well here. Hue Jackson is a good coach and he is an offensive minded guy. Look for him to get his team in a position to score several times here.
Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense got going against New York last week. Cleveland's defense shouldn't be able to slow them down here either. Cleveland doesn't have a strong pass rush and that puts a lot of pressure on their secondary. Cousins has been able to pick apart the weakest of defense in the past.
The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 games. The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. A 22-0 angle. Take the over.
|10-02-16||Seahawks v. Jets +1.5||27-17||Loss||-105||10 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie SMASHER* The New York Jets turned it over 8 times last week. You won't find many worse offensive performances in the NFL at any time. Stick a fork in the Jets? No. In fact, I think the fact that they kept the game so close last week despite 8 turnovers says a lot. In the NFL, when you see such a terrible performance from a team that is mediocre or better, you often see a bounce back in the next week. I think the Jets can have that performance here.
The Jets defensive front is elite. The Seattle offensive line might be the worst one in the NFL. Seattle really struggles to protect Russell Wilson, and I expect the Jets to be all over Wilson in this one. Wilson isn't 100 percent, and that should play a role in this game as well.
Here's another important reason for making this play. The ticket count here is 50/50, but 78% of the money is on the Jets. The sharp money is siding with the Jets, and I am going to agree.
Seattle has a hobbled quarterback and a terrible offensive line. The Jets are anxious to bounce back after last weekend. Take the Jets.
|09-25-16||Rams v. Bucs UNDER 42||37-32||Loss||-109||37 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Rams rank 4th in yards per pass allowed in the NFL. The Rams front four is excellent, and they should be able to put enough pressure on Jameis Winston to make life relatively difficult on him. Doug Martin is out for this game, and that definitely hurts the Bucs offense. Tampa Bay becomes more one-dimensional without him, and that should help the Rams defense get after Winston even more.
The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been great so far this year, but the Rams offense is bad enough that it can make a mediocre defense look good. Case Keenum just doesn't look like the answer to me. Even more discouraging for the Rams has to be the play of the offensive line and the running of Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay's defense is much better against the run (3.0 ypc) than the pass, and I don't see Keenum being a guy who can exploit the Tampa Bay secondary.
The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 19-0 angle. Take the under.
|09-25-16||49ers v. Seahawks OVER 41||18-37||Win||100||23 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Contrarian Play* The Seattle Seahawks offense has been bad so far this year. They have had two games go well under the posted total. That's why the public, which normally bets overs, is taking the under in this one. I'm going to go against popular opinion and suggest a play on the over here.
Chip Kelly's San Francisco offense scored 28 points on a good Rams defense and 27 points on a very good Carolina defense. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. They'll get plenty of possessions here.
Seattle has their chance to break out on offense in this one. The San Francisco defense looked bad last week against Carolina. Seattle is a favorite here by a wide margin, and if the 49ers get down early, they will play extremely fast late in the game. They did precisely this last weekend against Carolina, and that game was a shootout late in the game.
I think Seattle can make some big plays on the outside throughout this game.
The last meeting between these two was 29-13, and that was before Chip Kelly and his faster tempo came to San Francisco.
There won't be many times you'll be able to take over 41 in a game with Chip Kelly as one of the coaches. Too much value to pass up. Grab the over in this one.
|09-25-16||Redskins v. Giants OVER 45.5||29-27||Win||100||20 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New York Giants gained 417 yards last weekend. They struggled getting the ball into the end zone, but New York's offense moved the ball very well. New York now has three very good receiving options: Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shephard. Eli Manning can be very good when given time to throw, and with this many weapons I see the Giants offense being better than expected.
The Washington Redskins defense has been torched by both Pittsburgh and Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good offense, but Dallas' offense is questionable right now and they put up 27 points without being very good in the red zone. Washington's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for Manning to have a big day.
Kirk Cousins has been under fire, but he has had some success in the past against the Giants. The Giants defense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year.
Both of these teams are playing at a relatively quick tempo. With the total down to 45.5, I think all the value is on the over.
The over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 250 passing yards or more. A 20-0 angle. Take the over.
|09-19-16||Eagles v. Bears -3||29-14||Loss||-121||138 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star MNF Eagles/Bears ATS CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Cleveland Browns at home last weekend. Carson Wentz looked good in his debut. It is really important to keep things in perspective though. Wentz was going up against the Cleveland Browns defense. At the end of the year, the Browns are likely to have one of the 3 or 4 worst defenses in the NFL.
Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have the same luxury this week. They are playing on the road at Soldier Field against a much improved Chicago Bears defense. The Bears went out and got Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman to form a tremendous duo at the linebacker position. Chicago will be much improved this year, especially against the run.
I see this price being an overreaction to a solid week one performance by the Eagles.
Jay Cutler improved last year, and I see him having a similar season to last year again. The Bears have enough weapons around him to allow him to not have to do everything himself.
In the early going here, we have the sharps solidly lining up with the Bears. Though about 60% of the bets are on the Eagles, a little more than 75% of the money is on the Bears. Lay the short price with the home team here.Take Chicago.
|09-19-16||Eagles v. Bears UNDER 42.5||29-14||Loss||-115||65 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Eagles/Bears Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles played at the quickest tempo in the league last year with Chip Kelly at the helm, but things will be much different this year. Based on Doug Pederson's background, I expect the Eagles to rank among the five slowest paced teams in the league this year. The Bears have typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace of play as well, and I don't see that changing this year.
There is no doubt that the Bears defense is much better this year than last season. They have upgraded in a big way at the linebacker position, and I expect Danny Trevathan to have a great year for them.
The Eagles defense has no glaring weaknesses, and Philadelphia is going to be much better defensively now that they aren't on the field all the time like they were last season.
Wentz was good in his first game, but that was against a terrible Browns defense. Jay Cutler isn't a guy I like to trust either.
I see a low scoring battle all the way.
The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after allowing 15 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. A 15-0 angle. Take the under.
|09-18-16||Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43||14-17||Win||100||28 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a key divisional game. Minnesota is opening up their new stadium here, and the stakes are always high when these two meet. These are the teams expected to compete for the NFC North. The Vikings topped Green Bay on the road to win the division last year.
The Vikings appear ready to start Sam Bradford at quarterback in this game. Bradford has only been around the team about two weeks, so he can't know the entire playbook very well. We know the Vikings will play it close to the vest here, because they are already one of the most conservative play calling teams in the NFL (arguably the most conservative).
The Vikings have the big edge in the trenches in this game. The Packers have the much better quarterback. I don't think the Packers defense will let Peterson have a huge game here, and the Vikings defense has been solid against Rodgers recently.
This looks like one of those very hard fought games where someone wins 17-14 or 20-17.
The under is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5 in the Packers last 16 games. Take the under in this one.
|09-18-16||Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 43.5||12-19||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Houston Texans defense will be one of the best in the NFL all year. They have run stuffers and obviously they have amazing pass rushers all over the field. Kansas City's defense is also one that I believe is better than the average defense in the league.
Kansas City had to play a quick tempo in the second half to make their miraculous comeback against San Diego last week, but year after year under Andy Reid they have ranked as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Texans have slowed their pace of play down this season as they have a new quarterback in the system.
I think both offenses will keep things quite vanilla in this one. Look for a lot of running plays that keep the clock ticking. I expect to see a very close game all the way where the defenses have the upper hand.
Take the under.
|09-18-16||Titans +6 v. Lions||16-15||Win||100||33 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Tennessee Titans should have beaten the Minnesota Vikings last week. If it weren't for two defensive touchdowns from the Vikings, Tennessee would have won that game.
The Detroit Lions jumped out to a big 18 point lead, before needing a game winning field goal with 8 seconds left to edge the Colts last weekend. I had the Lions in that game, and I do respect this team, but I feel like the oddsmakers have overreacted in this one.
Week two is often called overreaction week, and here I think the snap judgement on both teams is a little off. Tennessee outplayed the Vikings and stuffed the run very well last week. The Lions defense showed some significant issues in the second half against the Colts, and I'm not sure the Colts are very good.
The Titans defense shut down Adrian Peterson, and I expect them to make the Lions one dimensional here. It's hard to win games, let alone win games by a big amount in the NFL when you are one dimensional.
The Lions play the Packers next week, and this is a potential look ahead spot based on the way the Lions lost on the Hail Mary to Green Bay in their last meeting.
Take the Titans.
|09-12-16||Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43||0-28||Win||100||66 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The San Francisco 49ers are going to run an uptempo offense under Chip Kelly, but I don't expect them to be very efficient on offense. This is still a team that lacks weapons. Other than going out and grabbing Chip Kelly, I'm not sure this team really did much of anything to improve the offense.
The St. Louis Rams have all sorts of offensive problems as well. Case Keenum hasn't proven that he is good enough to win games on a consistent basis. The Rams are almost certainly going to want to run the ball and control the clock more here, and that should help the under.
The 49ers defense is a league average defense, and I think that should be good enough to slow down the Rams offense the majority of the game. The Rams defense is a good one. St. Louis might be a bit vulnerable on the deep ball in the secondary, but I don't see the 49ers having the players necessary to take advantage of that weakness.
The under is 38-17-1 in the Rams last 56 road games. The under is 18-5 in the 49ers last 23 home games. Take the under.
|09-11-16||Lions +3.5 v. Colts||39-35||Win||100||62 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Detroit Lions have a really good defensive line. The weakness of the Indianapolis Colts is their offensive line. Andrew Luck is likely to be running for his life early and often in this one.
The biggest problem the Colts offense has is they don't really even have a running game for other teams to respect. The Lions will be able to blitz Andrew Luck constantly here, and that should make for a difficult game for him.
Detroit's offense lost Calvin Johnson, but there are still plenty of pieces in place here. Matt Stafford has proven over time to be an effective quarterback when he has time to throw, and I think he'll get enough time here.
Vontae Davis being out is a huge hit for the Colts secondary. This is a Colts defense that I have ranked as one of the five worst in the NFL, and they are without arguably their most important player.
While 2/3 of the public bets on this game are on the Colts, 80% of the money bet is on the Lions. I'll go with the sharp money on the Lions plus the points. Take Detroit.
|09-11-16||Bengals v. Jets UNDER 42||23-22||Loss||-110||34 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals lost their offensive coordinator from last year. Hue Jackson could be a pretty big loss for Andy Dalton and company. An even bigger loss is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is key for this offense because he opens things up on the outside for AJ Green. Marvin Jones is gone as well, and the Bengals pass receivers are subpar now. Look for the Bengals to struggle through the air against a good secondary. The Jets are solid up front as well, and I see them making life difficult on the Bengals.
The Jets offense isn't filled with stars. It's a group that can get the job done, but it isn't necessarily pretty. Cincinnati's defense has been underrated the last few years, and I believe they'll be good again this season. The Bengals have some talented playmakers on all levels.
The winds are expected to be a bit of an issue here, which should mean even more running the football. I expect a very close game that stays under the total. Take the under.
|09-11-16||Bears v. Texans UNDER 43.5||14-23||Win||100||33 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Chicago Bears defense got much better with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. The Bears now have one of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL. I think this Bears defense is going to surprise to the upside in the season ahead.
Houston is a defense that is obviously one of the best in the NFL. J.J. Watt's recovery has stunned everyone, and the fact that he is expected to play Sunday is a huge plus. The Bears are going through some transitions on offense, and I don't see Houston as a team that will make it easy on the Bears offense.
I'm very surprised the number was set so high here, and it seems like the sharp players in the market agree. About 81% of the money so far bet on this total has been on the under. Public players don't play this early, so I see most of that as sharp money.
Neither quarterback is all that trustworthy, and we have two of the top ten defenses in the NFL in my book. This one is a strong under play for me. Take the under.
|09-11-16||Bears +6 v. Texans||14-23||Loss||-110||33 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* Who are the Houston Texans to be laying six points right now? We haven't even seen how Brock Osweiler will fit in the system. It's clear to me that he isn't a franchise quarterback, and I think most share that assumption. Why are the Texans getting so much love here? Most likely think the Texans are going to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but I don't see that being the case.
With Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, the Bears brought in two really good linebackers. That's going to make this defense, and specifically this run defense, much better in the year ahead. The Houston offensive line is a mess, and I don't see them opening holes in this one.
Jay Cutler made some positive steps last year, and I do believe he is the better quarterback in this game.
Six is a lot of points in the NFL. I see this as a game that is likely to be decided by 3 or 4 points. I give the Bears a real shot at an outright upset, but I'll gladly grab the points. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Chicago.
|02-07-16||Panthers v. Broncos +6||10-24||Win||100||270 h 29 m||Show|
*4 Star Super Bowl Super CASH* I waited for this number to appear, and now I'll take it. This isn't a fade of Carolina, rather it is simply a play on what I believe is far too much value to pass up.
Carolina is a good team, but they haven't been tested in the playoffs yet. Seattle dug a 31-0 hole in the first half due to silly turnovers. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last game. Palmer looked like he was playing for the wrong team he was handing the Panthers the ball so often. While I know that the Panthers defense is opportunistic, I don't think turnovers like Carolina has benefited from in the past two weeks are things that should be counted on.
Denver's defense was the best defense in the NFL this year, and by a wide margin. This team can get after the quarterback really well. Miller is playing at an elite level, and he'll be tough for Carolina to slow down. The Broncos secondary is excellent also. Trevathan doesn't get enough credit for how solid he is, and DeMarcus Ware is obviously a beast as well. This Denver defense is scary good.
Carolina's defense is good, but they have given up a lot of yards late in the year. Denver's offensive front has improved down the stretch.
Getting six points with the best defense in the NFL in a game with a posted total of only 45 is just too much for me to pass up. Take Denver.
|01-24-16||Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47||15-49||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star NFC Championship CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday night. I'm looking forward to this one. There are some great playmakers on offense in this game. Cam Newton has been amazing this year, and Stewart is underrated as a running back.
Carson Palmer has been great all year and the Cardinals have a ton of weapons in the passing game. The Carolina secondary has allowed more big plays late in the season, and that's where Arizona can beat them. I expect Arizona to be able to bust several long plays.
Arizona's defense is banged up now, and Carolina has been great at breaking long runs and mixing in the passing game when needed. Also, both of these defenses have scored a lot this year, and some defensive or special teams touchdowns here wouldn't be a big surprise.
This is a matchup of the number one and number two scoring offenses in the NFL. A back and forth game. The over is 10-4 in the Panthers last 14 playoff games. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 playoff games. Take the over.
|01-24-16||Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 45||18-20||Win||100||2 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Under* I waited on this one for a long time. I've wanted to play the under, but figured the line would go up, and it finally has. I wanted the key number of 45, and now we have it. This is not a big play, but I do believe it has some value here. The Broncos will have to slow the game down and run the ball a lot to win here. New England's defense is underrated this year, and the Broncos offense isn't going to be able to do much down the field. Take the under.
|01-17-16||Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 44||24-31||Loss||-108||44 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a terrific game from earlier this year. Carolina went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks in shocking fashion with a late comeback victory.
Seattle's defense didn't play well early in the season, but they are definitely playing well now. The Seahawks defense rates number one in the NFL in the past month. They are first in the NFL against the run, and Carolina is dependent on running the ball a bunch.
Carolina's defense is ranked number four when it comes to stopping the run. Seattle is definitely a run first team. The Panthers should make them work hard for yardage here.
A cool day with a slight chance of rain mixed with snow is in the forecast for Sunday afternoon in Charlotte.
The under is 5-0 in Seattle's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Carolina. A 22-0 angle. Take the under.
|01-16-16||Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 43||20-27||Loss||-110||24 h 37 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Pats/Chiefs Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense still isn't good. Alex Smith is a game manager and the running game is important to their success. New England has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, and they will sell out to stop the run here. Jeremy Maclin is questionable and if he plays he will be at less than 100 percent. Maclin is the Chiefs best playmaker and without him being healthy, I don't see Kansas City scoring much here.
New England has a lot of question marks on offense. Edelman will play, but is less than 100 percent. Gronkowski is listed as questionable. I think he plays, but he is likely less than 100 percent too. While the Pats should have some success on offense, this Chiefs defense has played exceptionally down the stretch.
Heavy rain is in the forecast for early Saturday afternoon here. The rain will likely be letting up during the game, but the field will be sloppy and a 10 to 12 mph wind will hurt the passing games a bit.
Take the under.
|01-10-16||Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 42||10-9||Win||100||142 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Wild Card Best Bet* The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a regular season blowout win in favor of Seattle. This one will be a January games played outdoors in Minnesota. Currently, the forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a temperature of 12 degrees and a 10 mph wind.
Minnesota only got 9 first downs in the first meeting with Seattle. The only 7 points Minnesota scored was via a kickoff returned for 100 yards. The Seattle offense had a short field multiple times in that game, and I think Mike Zimmer and his staff will have the Minnesota defense better prepared for Seattle's offense in this one.
Seattle plays at the 24th quickest pace of play in the NFL (out of 32 teams). Minnesota plays at the 25th fastest tempo.
The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 Wild Card games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 January games. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle. Take the under.
*Note- This line has dropped throughout the week because of the weather forecast. I would recommend this as a 3 star play at the current price. Thank you*
|01-09-16||Chiefs v. Texans +3.5||30-0||Loss||-120||39 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star Saturday NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Texans defense didn't play up to expectations early in the season, but that changed in a big way toward the end of the season. Houston's amazing defense allowed 6 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. That included their Monday Night Football against Cincinnati with the Bengals at full strength.
Alex Smith is a game manager, and the Texans defense is going to be selling out to stop the run in this game. Kansas City has no history of winning playoff games of late, and Houston is more than a field goal underdog at home? This doesn't make sense to me.
Kansas City's 10 game win streak has been against poor teams for the most part, and their win against Pittsburgh during that streak was when the Steelers didn't have Big Ben.
How's this for a kicker? This is a crazy, but very interesting statistic. Since 2004, there have been 13 teams that have entered the playoffs on a 8 game winning streak or longer. Those teams have gone 0-13 ATS! The Chiefs are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. A 19-0 angle. Take Houston.
|01-03-16||Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45.5||20-13||Win||100||20 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have a lot on the line in this one. In many games in week 17, I believe it is hard to predict where the total will go because the teams aren't motivated. These two teams are going to be motivated.
Green Bay looked awful last week, and they should play better here. The Packers defense will try to make Teddy Bridgewater beat them. Can he do it? I'm not sure he can. Green Bay's offense has changed quite a bit in recent weeks as well. With McCarthy calling the plays, the Packers are running the ball more often and using up the clock.
The under is 3-0-1 in the Vikings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. A 15-0 angle. Take the under.
|01-03-16||Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42||20-27||Loss||-105||13 h 37 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Chargers offense is totally one-dimensional. They cannot run the football. Being one-dimensional in the NFL is dangerous against any defense, but against a defense like Denver it is very bad news. San Diego can't protect Phillip Rivers thanks to a ton of injuries on the offensive line. Denver ranks first in the NFL in sacks. Expect the Broncos to be in Rivers' face all day, and he's going to take some big hits.
The Chargers are missing several key playmakers on offense, and their defense has actually improved late in the season. Denver's offense is very inconsistent, but the Denver defense is easily the best in the league. The first game between these two was 17-3. I don't think this one gets very close to the total either.
The under is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or more passing last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Denver's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
|01-03-16||Jets v. Bills UNDER 42||17-22||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL Jets/Bills CASH* The New York Jets defense is excellent. The Buffalo Bills defense is very talented, but they have underachieved most of the year. I think Rex Ryan will do a good job motivating the defense and his team in general though as they go up against his old team and try to ruin their playoff chances.
A key factor here is the weather. There are snow showers expected throughout the day. It won't be a lot of snow that's the big problem though. The wind is the huge issue here. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will make throwing the football extremely difficult. Both offenses are likely to become very predictable running the football a bunch here. That will also keep the clock going.
In a game that means a lot to both teams and with poor weather, I see a low scoring game. Take the under.
|12-27-15||Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50.5||8-38||Loss||-110||27 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star NFL Packers/Cardinals Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers offense has looked a bit better in the last couple weeks. McCarthy is now calling the plays and he has given the team better balance. The offensive line is still a problem, but they have been better than they were early in the season.
Arizona's secondary took a huge hit when Mathieu went down with a season ending knee injury. The Packers passing attack should be good enough to exploit the Cardinals weakness there. Patrick Peterson will probably play here, but he is dinged up as well.
The Green Bay defense is no better than average at this point, and Arizona's offense is tremendous. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in total offense. Arizona has been picking apart just about every defense they have played.
The over is 5-2 in Arizona's last 7 home games. Take the over.
|12-27-15||Patriots v. Jets +3.5||20-26||Win||100||24 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New York Jets need this game very badly. New York is being pushed hard in the AFC playoff race, and they simply can't afford to lose. New England would like to win here, but they don't need to win nearly as bad as the Jets do.
New England's injuries have to catch up to them at some point. This Patriots team is severely banged up. Remember, the first time these two played the Jets were leading for much of the game at New England before falling apart in the fourth quarter, but they did still get the cover. New York's defense has been one of the best at slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense.
New England is catching most of the public money here, but the line is edging toward the Jets. That's a strong sign of sharp money being on the home underdog in this one.
The Patriots are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4. The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jets. A 14-0 angle. Take New York.
|12-27-15||Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 43||Top||13-17||Win||100||24 h 50 m||Show|
*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Kansas City Chiefs are playing at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. They are taking 33.5 seconds between plays, which is the longest mark in the league. Kansas City's offense isn't very good. They have been putting up some big point totals of late because the defense has been scoring points in large amounts. That has made this Chiefs team look better than they are, at least offensively if you are looking at things like points per game.
Cleveland's defense has been a little better in recent weeks. The Browns run defense still isn't good, but they have been slightly better of late. The Browns secondary is solid. Kansas City is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game and run the clock a lot. Cleveland has been running it a lot as well.
The weather is one of the big reasons I'm making this play as well. The forecast here is calling for rain throughout the game, and even more importantly, heavy winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph. That kind of weather is very good for under bettors.
The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 with less than 150 yards passing last game. The under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last 4 in Week 16. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. Top rated play. *NFL Game of the MONTH*