Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Saints 8:20: A few points of value with this Over/Under. Saints are limited in offensive weaponry. QB Taysom Hill should get the start but he doesn't have a lot of explosive options to go to. Kamara (knee) practiced on a limited basis this week and he is surely the best option for Hill to hook up with; however, he's been out 3 weeks and just had a few practices. Dallas' interim HC Quinn, who is also the DC, should adjust his defensive plan accordingly. The Cowboys' defense has given up more than enough explosive plays this year. Tonight, if Quinn has his deep defenders keep everything in front of them, he should be able to limit Saints' scoring. Dallas, on the other hand, should have Prescott's top receiver - Lamb - and on a limited basis - Cooper. Cowboys' run game, however, a concern. Just 64 rush yards last week and New Orleans' run-stop-unit allows just 91.9 YPG (#3). Saints' defense allows a respectable 22.6 PPG. Cowboys will be without both their offensive line coaches and HC McCarthy. Shouldn't affect play calling duties. Dallas, however, will be without RT Steele (Covid) and LT Smith really struggled last week after getting back into action recoverin from injuries. Technically, Dallas is 2-10 O/U vs the NFC South, 1-4 O/U as a road favorite and on a 1-4 O/U run. Saints 0-9 O/U Thursday run and this series is 1-4 O/U. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
12-01-21 | Utah v. USC UNDER 137.5 | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Utah/USC 11:30pm: These teams are both well-disciplined on the defensive end. USC's Enfield has his boys holding foes to a smothering 34.4% from the floor and hasn't allowed a single opponent to shoot 40% this season. Utah's first year HC Craig Smith - who came from defensively stout Utah State - has his team allowing just 60 PPG (48th nationally) and guard the perimeter well (24.8% - 4th nationally). Trojans aren't going to light it up from 3 point land for Ellis is their top gun hitting the trey at a 41% clip but averaging around 15 PPG. USC does have the interior presence with Mobley but Utah defense stingy at allowing 38% from floor. And USC can get to the foul line but clanks it at a disappointing 57.7% clip. On the offensive end for Utah, they're more workmanlike than sizzling shooting. 7' C Craig Smith and G Jenkins are key contributors but aren't going to light it up on USC's home floor. USC is 3-8 O/U after allowing less than 50 points in previous game while Utah is 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road tilts. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Bills/Saints 8:20: See a defensive battle here. Saints' offense stuck in neutral without any playmakers (Kamara and Michael Thomas out). Should see versatile Taysom Hill manage the offense but limited with skill support. And Buffalo #1 defense (total yards) stewing after allowing Jonathon Taylor to run all over them. Bills 1-8 O/U off SU loss and 2-5 O/U off double-digit loss at home. Buffalo offense lackluster lately without a run game. New Orleans' defense, which is #3 vs the run, was also embarrassed last week as the Eagles ran roughshod on them. Saints' Cam Jordan and company should buckle down here. Saints 4-9 O/U after allowing more than 350 yards, and 0-9 O/U on Thursdays. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Fresno State v. San Jose State UNDER 52.5 | 40-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Fresno State/San Jose State 3:30: Both teams have something on the line for them here besides the Valley Trophy. Fresno can with the Mountain Division title with a win and a loss by San Diego State on Friday. San Jose State needs a win to be bowl eligible. I'm going to look for a defensive battle. Since 2016, the last 4 in this series have gone "under" scoring a combined 30, 37, 44 and 33, respectively. San Jose State ranks 106th offensively. QB Nick Starkel missed October with a collar bone injury and is struggling on account of no run game and limited help from skill personnel. Starkel's completing just 52.9% of his passes. Fresno has a solid defense ranked 32nd in the nation in points allowed (21.3 PPG). On the other hand, Fresno offense solid but Spartans' defense a scrappy bunch that keeps them in games. Spartans 0-4 O/U as a home dog. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Florida v. Missouri OVER 69 | 23-24 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Florida/Missouri 4:00: This series has historically been "under" in recent years but I'm going "over" today. Florida's defense has been abysmal to put it mildly. They've given up 49, 34, 40 and 52 over the last 4 weeks, respectively. The 52 was given up to subdivision lightweight Samford. And Florida knows their defense is in bad shape when their leading tackler last week was their safety (Rashad Torrence) with 11 tackles! Weeks earlier Mullen fired his DC and is searching for answers. It won't happen against Missouri. The Tigers' offense is led by a 1500+ rusher in Tyler Badie who should add to his season TD total (16). Missouri, on the other hand, can't stop the run. They give up nearly 250 YPG. And you know Mullen loves to run the rock. He has a versatile QB in Emory Jones that fuels a potent offense. Florida is 12-4 O/U on the road, 5-2 O/U in November, and 12-5 O/U after allowing 450+ yards. Missouri has gone 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games, and they're on a 7-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Rams/49ers 8:15: Rams having issues on offensive line that are preventing them from being the elite offense they're capable of. Tennessee surely exploited it last week. And much ado about nothing regarding bringing in Beckham Jr. He had one practice and surely will be used sparingly. What's of more concern is loss of Robert Woods (ACL). SF's defense at its best when edge rusher Bosa is healthy. Secondary injuries have mounted so 49ers' d-line will have to be at its best. On the other hand, Rams' defense under DC Morris not what it was last year under Staley yet still productive. Top receiver - Samuel should be matched up by lock down corner Ramsey. SF 1-4 O/U as a dog and 7-19 O/U off double-digit SU loss at home. They're also 5-15-1 O/U after allowing 30+ points. Rams are 1-4 O/U off a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 O/U November and 2-12 O/U when the O/U line is above 50. It's currently at 50.5. This series is 2-6 O/U in SF and we'll stay "under". |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 49.5 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Packers 4:25: The "total" elevated on news Russell Wilson (finger) and Aaron Rodgers (Covid19) were cleared. Sure, both offenses immediately upgraded but can't ignore the stats: Green Bay's defense has been the best it has been in years under new DC Joe Barry. Packers' defense #5 in the NFL in total yards allowed and #6 in total points (20 PPG) allowed. Russell Wilson is magical on the field but he's limited as the Seattle run game can't get generated (21st in league) as injuries mount in the backfield. On the other hand, Seattle defense has improved the last few weeks showing an ability to make stops in crucial moments. Both these teams are a combined 3-14 O/U this season. We'll look for a lower scoring game on the frozen tundra today. |