04-20-24 |
Magic v. Cavs OVER 207.5 |
|
83-97 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 52 m |
Show
|
Magic/Cavs 1:00: Defensive intensity picking up in playoffs. In addition, two defensive minded coaches who know each other well. Both teams are solid defensively. However, I'm not buying into the low total. Despite the defensive discipline, these teams managed to go "over" in 4 of the last 6 clashes, including 2-0 O/U in the last 2 in Cleveland. Based on the numbers, I was projecting a total of around 215 and this one comes in under 208. Both offenses are efficient and execute well. Orlando's Suggs, Banchero and Wagner can put up numbers. Cleveland's backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell are very good at penetrating, scoring and kicking out to open perimeter shooters. "Over" the call.
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04-16-24 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 223 |
|
94-118 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Kings 10:00: Both teams are well disciplined defensively. Both of these teams picked up defensive intensity down the stretch of the regular season. Both of these teams allowed approximately 115 PPG during the season. Over the last 10 games, Warriors allowed an average of 108 PPG while Kings yielded 104 PPG. This playoff series last year went "under" in 4 of 6. And both games in Sacramento combined to average 220. With a play on or go home mentality, "Under" is the smart call here.
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02-15-24 |
Warriors v. Jazz OVER 240 |
|
140-137 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
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Warriors/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are coming off losses last night. Utah defense was torched from the perimeter as the LeBron-less Lakers sank 14 of 31 from the perimeter at a 45.2% clip. Now they face the NBA's all-time perimeter scorer who has sunk at least 6 trey bombs in 8 of his last 11 games. And usually before All-Star break teams will dismiss defensive prep - lots of them already checked out for break. Going unrested, I see that magnified tonight. We'll grab the "over"
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06-12-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208.5 |
|
89-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat OVER 211.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5 |
|
109-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
05-25-23 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 215 |
|
97-110 |
Loss |
-112 |
20 h 50 m |
Show
|
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Heavy "over" trends for both teams in their respective situations. Heat have gone 'over' in 10 of their last 11 road games. They're also 17-5 O/U on 1 day of rest. Celtics 11-4 O/U last 15 overall, 4-0 O/U after a 10+ point win, and 12-3 O/U on 1 day of rest. This series is 5-0 O/U in Boston. "Over" it is!
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05-21-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 |
|
102-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
05-20-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 221.5 |
|
119-108 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
|
Nuggets/Lakers 8:30: Lakers should be a bit more comfortable back on their home court where they average 117 PPG. Anthony Davis roller coaster performance should continue after coming off a sluggish scoring game. And James most likely won't go 0 of 6 from downtown. Fortunately for the Lakers, Reeves and Hachimura have been fabulous in the playoffs. Walker IV, Schroder and Russell should play well. Denver's Jokic most likely won't be stopped and Murray is clearly back in top form. Lakers 15-5 O/U after scoring 100+ and 15-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. Nuggets 5-1-1 O/U in last 7 road tilts. We'll look for a shootout here.
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05-19-23 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 215.5 |
|
111-105 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 29 m |
Show
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Heat/Celtics 8:30: Good value with the "over" in what has been a 4-0 O/U series at TD Garden. Miami sports heavy "over" trends. They're 20-7 O/U in their last 27 games and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 road tilts and 17-4 O/U off a SU win. Boston, 9-3 O/U run, is 9-2 O/U after scoring 100+ and 7-2 O/U after allowing 100+. The Celtics have gone "over" in 9 of their last 12 Conference Finals games. Over the call.
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05-05-23 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 214.5 |
|
114-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 60 m |
Show
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Celtics/76ers 7:30: These teams are a combined 7-23 O/U in Conference Semifinals games. Both are defensively stout and create turnovers and disciplined in taking away strength of opposition. The "under" is 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings. Still value with the "under".
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04-30-23 |
Heat v. Knicks UNDER 208 |
|
108-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
04-23-23 |
Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 206.5 |
|
93-102 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
04-21-23 |
Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211.5 |
|
79-99 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 37 m |
Show
|
|
04-19-23 |
Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222 |
|
113-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
02-16-23 |
Wizards v. Wolves OVER 235 |
|
114-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 14 m |
Show
|
Wizards/Wolves 8:10: Heavy "over" trends on this one and it being the last game before the All-Star break gives us extra value. These teams are checking out defensively and we'll look for the "over" to hit.
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02-15-23 |
Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 238.5 |
|
111-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
02-15-23 |
Pistons v. Celtics OVER 223.5 |
|
109-127 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
12-09-22 |
Kings v. Cavs UNDER 222.5 |
|
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
Sacramento/Cleveland 7:40: This series is 1-5 O/U in its last 5, including 0-2 O/U at Cleveland. Surely, Donovan Mitchell adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavaliers this season, but he fits in schematically defensively. Cavaliers the #1 defensive team in the NBA allowing 104.9 PPG. Sacramento, on the other hand, is the #2 offensive team in the NBA led by De'aaron Fox. Kings lose ground defensively (allow 116 PPG), however, but defensive minded Brown constantly reinforces defensive technique. Kings are 1-5 O/U on the road vs teams with winning records. Cavs on an 0-6 O/U run and 0-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. We'll stay under here.
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06-16-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210 |
|
103-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 46 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Two well-disciplined top 3 defenses been clamping down and the refs have been letting them play; as a result, the 'under' is popping. Tonight, got a line (210) that's dropped in our range and we're going "over". This is the lowest total in this series over the past decade! We'll look for better shooting by Boston and Curry, who rarely has back-to-back bad games, should significantly add to the total. Interesting side bit: Warriors and the Celtics on Thursday are a combined 15-1-1 O/U. "Over" it is.
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06-10-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 |
|
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 41 m |
Show
|
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: This series has been softly called by the referees relative to other playoff series. The refs are letting them play. Both teams are defensively stout and make good adjustments. Warriors are 2-6 O/U off a SU loss, 1-4 O/U in their last 5 dog roles, and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss of 10+. This series is 4-12 O/U and 3-7 O/U in Boston. "Under" the call.
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06-05-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
|
88-107 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
05-29-22 |
Celtics v. Heat OVER 195.5 |
|
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
Celtics/Heat 8:30: These teams are very good defensively, but series sports an 11-5 O/U ledger. This total has been dropped down sharply and we're going "over". Celtics 8-3-1 O/U as road chalk. And Heat 8-2 O/U in Conference Finals. "Over" the call.
|
05-21-22 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 207.5 |
|
109-103 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
05-17-22 |
Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 |
|
107-118 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
Celtics/Heat 8:45: The total for this series is set at its lowest in years. This series has gone 7-3 O/U in its last 10 meetings. Miami had just two poor playoff shooting performances in its last 10 post-season games. They've eclipsed 100 in 8 of last 10. As for Boston, they just had 1 poor playoff scoring performance - May 1st at home vs Milwaukee - in their last 10 playoff outings. Both teams are shooting well and have electric big game players - Tatum for Boston and Butler for Miami - who are stepping up their game and getting the needed bench help. Their defenses are solid but their offensive execution a bit better. These teams are a combined 8-0 O/U in Conference Final games and we're staying "over".
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