110114

Play on:  5* Notre Dame (311) over Navy @ 8:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Well if the Irish would have won last week over Florida State (27-31) this selection would have no validity.  Instead we have Notre Dame coming in off a heart breaking loss going on the road to face up-start Navy.  The Middies show off wins over VMI 51-14 and San Jose State 31-14, not elite competition. Prior they had lost three straight vs. Rutgers, Air Force and Western Kentucky, not a Class A unit to be found.  They do have classy QB Keenan Reynolds leading the way, but the ND defense has faced better this season.  On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense should have a big day passing behind QB Golson throwing to WR Fuller against a Navy secondary that is not of division one quality.  Overall their defense is ranked #85 allowing 27.6 points per game. With the game being played at FedEx Field the balance of student body and general fans should have strong east coast support for ND. Techs show ND 5-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. With this being considered a home game for Navy we note the Middies are 0-6 ATS vs. a winning road unit.  Plus, the “road” team is 16-3 ATS in the series, while ND has taken 4-of-5 vs. Navy.

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Play on:  5* Arkansas+ over Mississippi State @ 7:15 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

As our SEC special last week, we cashed Kentucky over MSU (7-0) catching that ½ point cover. We look to do the same on Saturday night when the ‘Hogs visit Starkville.   Talent wise the Bulldogs have the most edges, except when Arkansas has the ball on offense in running situations. That huge offensive line should help mitigate the blitzes favored by HC Mullen. You can go back to last season and that 24-17 win in OT by the Bulldogs as the ‘Hogs had chances to win in the 4th quarter, but failed to convert. That’s indicative of the type of resolve Arkansas will come to play with on Saturday night.  This current spot authors Arkansas (4-4) in a double revenge situation.  No doubt the ‘Hogs have defensive issues, but they had those negatives when they lost to Alabama 14-13.  We note Arkansas played ‘Bama off a bye week.  Granted the overall situational angle here is complex with ‘Hogs aching for a win in the SEC as they show 0-16 SU, 6-10 ATS in the league.  The obvious techs have MSU 10-2 ATS in the series with the home team 5-0 ATS…Granted the ‘Hogs have had issues with the Bulldogs.  But, hold on MSU has Alabama and Mississippi on the road to test their quest for an undefeated season.  My thoughts here are in a “MOTO” construct, as the Bulldogs fully expect to win based on their series history with only UT Martin up next.  Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in the month of November and 7-1 L8 vs. a winning football team. As long as we are catching that ½-point again I’m staying on the ‘Hogs to pull a major surprise.

10* Auburn +1-1/2 or +2 over Ole Miss

CFB FALSE FAVORITE SMASH

BDS....Please grab this quickly as the line is melting as we write!

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5* Louisiana Tech -7 (352) over Western Kentucky @ 3:00 Eastern

Everyone knows I follow the Louisiana schools closely in all sports.  When Skip Holtz took over the coaching job at Louisiana Tech, my interest started to really peak.  However, LY they finished 4-8 behind the young mentor, though, have since been breathing fire against the opposition with 5-3 record in 2014.  Western Kentucky, as you know, is another unit that we track closely.  This season they have helped us cash both ATS and Total tickets, but coming into Saturday they are just 3-4 SU.  WK has an inconsistent offensive line, slightly under the talent at LT.  But, Looie has played stiffer competition and show with 18 juniors and seniors in starting positions.  Both units have strong passing attacks (finesse types), but there is a major difference statistically when the defenses are assessed.  LT has the #50 rated defense overall in the NCAA holding the opponents to 25.9 average points per game.  Considering their opposition this season allowing only 350 yards per game on average is super.  Here is where Western Kentucky loses their shirt…eh..eh jersey’s as they allow 549 yards defensively ranking #115 nationally.  Their points deficit averages 41.1 points per game…The line opened around -5, -5 ½ and has now shot up to -7 ½.  WK is 1-5 ATS off a SU win and show at 1-3 SU in roadies.  LT is 6-2 ATS L8 and 16-7-1 ATS vs.

5* New Orleans over Carolina

NFL LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS

3* Georgia Southern over Troy

CFB EARLY MOTO THURSDAY

BDS

10* Dallas -9 1/2 over Washington

NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH

Note, we are realizing this game early because of the public perception and line movement. So, take advantage of the number and play it ASAP...Thank you and best of luck!

10* NEW ORLEANS -1 over Green Bay

NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Our 10* plays are RED HOT 8-0 coming in with COLLEGE and NFL selections.

BDS

4* Miami over Jacksonville

NFL ROAD WARRIOR EDGE

BDS

3* Michigan State over Michigan

CFB EARLY MOTO PLAY

I will return later with our MOTO GAME OF THE YEAR! We are 1-0 with our games of the year in college football this season (10* CFB Washington Line Mismatch GOY).

10* Central Michigan over Buffalo

MAC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Note, our 10* selections are RED HOT at 6-0!

5* Kentucky +15 over Miss. State

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

4* Arkansas over UAB

CFB BOUNCE BACK SPECIAL

BDS

10* Rice over North Texas

CFB MOTO GOY

BDS

5* Oregon over Call

PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* Pittsburgh -3 or less over Houston

NFL LINE VALUE TOP PLAY

102014

Play on: 10* Pittsburgh (478) over Houston @ 8:30 Eastern

MNF TOP PLAY

BDS

Cashed a nice 5* ticket last Monday night with the 49ers and now look for additional capital for the MNF bankroll.  The #1 reason why we have the Steelers on our ticket this evening is EMOTION.  After being axed by traditional (and neighborhood rival) Cleveland last week we fully expect to see Pittsburgh play their best game this season. Granted they are not as soliid as the 2011 team that went 12-5 SU, but they have an outstanding chance to right their ship here.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU on Heinz field on Monday night. Plus they show at 5-1 ATS in week #7, while the Texans show at 0-6 ATS on Monday night.  Finally, with all the negative press and back biding hitting the home town Steelers, look for coach Tomlin to author a much needed bounce back win…Good Luck!

10* KC+4 over San Diego

BDS

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

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5* Central Michigan (338) over Ball State @ 3:30 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK…5-2

Last week we stayed away from the Chips (4-3) since they were playing out Northern Illinois and their vaunted offense.  Instead we used Western Michigan on the money line and took home the cash.  Here we will use CMU who has an improved offense going against the hard trying unit from Ball State who shows 1-5 SU.  Remember we told you the Chips were a team to be aware of considering they are coming a 6-6 season bringing back 19 starters.  Ball State started 2014 with only 11 starters.  In fact the Cardinals have come down hard since their heroics from last season.  They are 0-3 SU on the road, while going 0-2 SU in conference.  Ball State when in a road setting is allowing 28 points per game.  This weakness we fully expect the Chips to exploit with their improved attack.  The series techs do favor the visitor, but CMU is on a  4-0 ATS run against losing teams and 6-1 ATS in conference.  In addition, CMU is 37-17-2 ATS off an ATS win…CHIPS 27 BALL STATE 17

4* New Mexico +9 or +9 1/2 over AirForce

BDS

10* UMASS -14 over Eastern Michigan

EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* OREGON STATE+ 3 or higher over Utah

Held this out assuming the late money would come to the Utes, not so!

Both clubs 4-1 with Utah having the more effective rushing attack, but

the passing game of the Beavers will help PULL THE UPSET or take this to

the wire. That's why +3 or 3 1/2 makes our club a TOP PLAY. 

In addition, both units  need the game, so the home field becomes more of a factor

Utah was just 9-18 in conference going into this season, so we feel they are over valued!

5* San Francisco -3 over STL

Not afraid to lay -3 (nothing higher) here, especially with the Niners off a win, and the Rams off a phony close encounter with Philly. The Eagles prevent defense led the Rams to three touchdowns.  Realize this series favored the home team in ATS markers, but SF is an incredible 12-2 ATS in October which illustrates how well Harbaugh adjusts to the season.  Also, SF is 22-6 ATS in MNF.

5* NYG +3 or higher...over Philadelphia

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Eagles survived last week as they again built an early lead only to falter on defense in so many different situations. New York, however, was at with QB Eli Manning leading the way in a solid win over suffering Atlanta.  The Giants running attack fell off to 3.6 yards-per-carry, and Eli's net yards passing fell to 193 yards. But, New York scored 13 points in the 4th quarter to come from behind at home. Before the Atlanta game, QB Eli Manning was on fire hitting 73% of his passes. NYG is now 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on the campaign. Prior to the Atlanta home win the Giants crushed a turnover prone Washington 45-17 and defeating HOT Houston 30-17 in New York. This season NYG is 1-1 SU & ATS on the road.  The Eagles show 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS after stopping the Rams (with 2nd string QB..Davis) 34-28.  We note, the Rams became a "public team" Sunday morning as the line went from -6 1/2-to-3 1/2???  Philadelphia is still having problems on the offensive line with only 2 starters in the lineup, and they really do miss center Kelce.  QB Foles (12-3 starter) has been off this season as we predicted, and the running game is having problems with OL issues and sulking of RB McCoy. The UNDERDOG in the series is 14-4-1 ATS with the Giants 6-2-1 ATS in Philly.

10* Pittsburgh+ over Cleveland

Play on: 10* (253) Pitttsburgh over Cleveland

NFL SU UNDERDOG WINNER

Still not fully impressed with the Browns, despite miracle (made the NFL record books) win last week with Hoyer at the QB position.  Still Cleveland comes in respectable 2-2 SU off a highly early schedule. The Steelers show 3-2 SU after struggling with the NFL disaster Jacksonville and playing a challenging a tough early schedule.  We note Pittsburgh won game #1 in week #1 in the series 30-27 (-5) in Cleveland.  Realize the WORLD is going to be looking for the testy Browns to bounce back, but there is so much line value with the Steelers in a +4 in our power sheets over Cleveland.  The key default in the game is the Cleveland defense that is ranked #31 in total defense giving up 422 yards a game. As long as Big Ben stays healthy for the Steelers believe this will be a surprising easy win.  The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in the series, while going 5-1 ATS in the month October.  Pittsburgh comes to play for four quarters this Sunday.

10* Miami+3 over Green Bay

NFL SHOCKER OF THE MONTH

BDS

Play on:  5* Arizona+ 3 (168) over Southern California @ 10:30

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK (Notre Dame last week)

Realize the public domain will be knee jerking to Southern California who is off a SU and ATS loss to Arizona State, while ‘Zona shows off a MAJOR UPSET of Oregon 31-24.  I had the displeasure of seeing the Oregon and Arizona game, and realized the public will look to go against Arizona here assuming a letdown.  But, we note the Wildcats have an additional day of preparation off their Thursday win (Oregon).  The extra rest helps mitigate the depressive syndrome off an emotional effort.

Arizona entered the 2014 off an 8-5 record with just 13 starters, figuring to be maybe #3 or #4 in the PAC-12 South.  Instead they are 5-0 SU and 2-4 ATS coming in at the top of the South Division.  Talented Southern California is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS after being crushed by Arizona State.  We told most who would listen that the Trojans were going into a strong technical box vs. ASU, but the Sun Devils not only covered they won SU 38-34 on the final play of the game.  If any unit is going to be flat here, it is the Hollywood Trojans.

Looking back, on the road USC lost to Boston College, but upset Stanford.  In the Cardinal game the Trojans were the underdog. Here they are the favorite?  The Trojans do possess a 1.8 point per game advantage in average scoring differentials (defense vs. offense).  The Trojans have the more prolific defense, ‘Zona the better offense.  Last year USC defeated Arizona 38-31, so we have REVENGE a situation for the surprising ‘Cats.  In that 38-31 encounter the Trojans led 28-10 at half and coasted the rest of the way.  USC QB Cody Kessler had a huge first-half, so look for Rich Rod to come up with a gimmick defense to shrink the passing angles for the talented junior.

USC leads the series 28-8 with a split in their last two games, and possesses a +9 in the turnover column.  If Arizona is to win this SU, they will need to score early building a lead, while refraining from the critical TO angle.  Being at home is a huge ADVANTAGE, along with revenge with USC showing off a heart breaker last week.  Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the series covering the last 3-of-4 at home.  Critical:  The UNDERDOG is 8-1 ATS in the series…GRAB THE POINTS (+3) EARLY!

10* Air Force +7 1/2 or 8 over UTAH STATE

Note:  Please play this selection as early as possible, because

they are generating many tickets Friday evening on the Falcons.

CFB LETDOWN THEORY TOP PLAY

BDS

101114

Play on: 10* Washington (169) over California @ 6:00

CFB LINE MISMATCH OF THE YEAR

Wake up public here comes the high flying Golden Bear passing game looking to defeat pesky Washington. Technically, the major issue for California backers is the “loss of value”  as they opened -1 sitting  at -4 ½ on Friday afternoon.  The Bears show 4-1 SU & ATS off an “upset” win over Washington State 60-59.  Believe the line assertions have been dedicated by that win.  Cal is #1 in scoring within the PAC-12 and 4th in total yardage.  Washington comes in off a bye (major edge) 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.  The defensive key for the Huskies “D” is slowing QB Goff of California as he hung 5 touches on Washington State with 527 yards to compliment the result. With all the chatter about the Cal offense, we note they have a porous defense ranked ####119 in total defense (40.4 ppg, 464 ypg).  Washington has played some close games this year and I gained much respect for them inside the Stanford road game despite the SU loss. The Huskies come in shooting 33.0 points per game, while allowing 24.2 points per on defense.  As far as the EMOTIONAL match-up the situation actually favors Washington with additional rest (7-0 ATS vs. PAC-12) and the Bears coming off that heart pumping win. Techs give clear guidance as the Bears are a horrible 4-13 ATS in the PAC-12 combing with a 3-13 ATS record at home.  Washington shows 4-1 ATS in the series with a nice support tech inside the series as the UNDERDOG is 4-1 ATS.

5* Arkansas +9 over Alabama

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

With dubious weather conditions expected try and play this

early on Saturday morning to insure you have the whole

number per the above...Good Luck

4* MICHIGAN STATE -21 (not higher) over Purdue

Last week in these pages we plucked out the 'Due as a MAJOR TOP PLAY and they covered giving us a 3-0 SWEEP with our TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE (10-1). We noticed how vulnerable the Illini defense was to the running game (349) which eventually allowed QB Appleby (Purdue) to throw 15-20 lighting up the seams of the Illinois secondary. When you look back at the schedule you can calculate how Western Kentucky (one of the teams we follow closely) ate up the Illinois defense, along with Washington and Texas State (another school we follow closely). On the other hand, Purdue's defense is rated #101 allowing 28 ppg. illustrating how their lack of talent will show against quality opponents.

Michigan State held on last week to beat Nebraska 27-22 as the 'Huskers scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to make it close, including a 62-yard punt return for a TD. However, MSU held Nebraska to under 100 yards rushing. Remember the Spartans are the #13 rated unit in total defense.  Look for a big win by MSU.

CFB LATE MONEY MOVE

4* Washington +8 over Seattle

Here again the Seahawks travel to the east coast laying the wood against a frustrated football team. We agree the Redskins will lose the game SU, but the points are a gift considering Seattle is playing into a negative situation.  In fact, Seattle is 17-35-1 ATS during the month of September, while Washington is a super 4-1 ATS during week #5.  We note, Seattle does have a large home date on-deck with Dallas...Good Luck.

3* Cincinnati over NE

NFL SUNDAY NIGHT CRUSHER

BDS

5* KC over SF

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* HOUSTON+ over Dallas

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

10* Baltimore+ over Indy

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

10* Kentucky+ over South Carolina

SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

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Play on: 10* UAB +9 ½ over Western Kentucky @ 7:00

Alabama Birmingham comes in 2-2 SU & ATS, while Western shows with the same mark 2-2 SU & ATS.  In their last outing the Blazers were 14+ point favorites over FIU, only to lose SU 34-20. WKU comes in after UPSETTING Navy 36-27 as a 7+ point underdog. Navy gave up 2 turnovers one went for a 40+ yard TD interception by the Hilltoppers late in the 4th quarter.  UAB out gained FIU by almost 100 yards, but lost the game because of two interceptions for touches.  You can bet here the Blazers will focus on the running attack trying to wear down the athletic Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky is ranked #109 in rushing defense relinquishing 238 yards per game. No doubt UABs defense will be tested against the #4 rated offense, but if they use their ball control tactics they will shorten up the game, while keeping the score down…UAB+

4* Kansas State over Texas Tech

CFB SATURDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

BDS

Play on:  4* Northwestern+ (346) over Wisconsin @ 3:30

Last week we took a look at the Wildcats against the Nittany Lions, but backed off unfortunately.  Northwestern came up big as 29-6 winners (11-point underdog).  It was the first win at Penn State going back to 2004.  The back breaker for Penn State was a fourth quarter interception by NW that was returned for a TD.  In addition, NW completely shut down the Penn State running attack holding them to 50 yards on the day.  One thing is for sure the Wildcats defense will face a much more talented offense from Wisconsin.  The 17th rated Badgers stopped USF last week 27-10 after being tied 3-3 at half-time.  Wisconsin rushed for 294 yards and possessed the ball for slightly more than a half (31.42 TOP edge) which transferred into 26-8 first down edge.

Wisconsin is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, while the Wildcats show 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Badgers returned 10 starters, NW 17 starters.  Northwestern has won three straight at home against the more talented Badgers.  At this point of the season, our power ratings indicate Wisky being somewhat overrated and Northwestern underrated. For the Wildcats to win they MUST stop RB Gordon or they will not only lose, but fail to cover the number.  Still, we do have MASSIVE EDGES technically for NW as the home team in the series is 10-1 ATS, with the Badgers 0-6 ATS at Northwestern. We close with Wisconsin currently on a 1-6 ATS roll in Vegas.  Can’t help but, TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Notre Dame +2 over Stanford

This is a great situation, making sure you have +2, as some places are showing 1-1/2. Note, the line opened actually ND -1, but the sharps in Vegas reversed the number with overnight wagering Sunday through Monday. Recall this is a HUGE GAME for the IRISH! They want to be a MAJOR PLAYER in the recruiting ratings, hanging tough now, this win would serve notice that ND is back! Notre Dame is at home with the better QB, while Stanford shows off a draining win at Washington and now must travel to South Bend...EMOTIONAL EDGE:  Notre Dame has covered 4 straight vs. the Pac-12 and 4 straight in the month of October. Plus the Irish are 1-4 SU L5 in the series, so pay backs are on-deck for the Irish.  Stanford travels with a 1-4 mark after holding their most recent opponent to 20 or less points, 2-5 vs. a winning team. Finally we know the Cardinal has the documented edge on defense, but the home field and ND offense should take home a close victory..Good Luck.

100414

Play on:  3* (342) North Carolina +2 over Virginia Tech @ 12:30

CFB EARLY CALL

We have gone 4-1 ATS this college season with our early calls at Brad Diamond Sports. Here is a home dog in a solid position to grab the cash.   UNC has strange records of 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS.  Wins have been against FCS Liberty and San Diego State.  The losses were a little rough 70-41 vs. ECU and 50-35 last week to Clemson.  Virginia Tech who was highly touted this campaign marks the calendar with a 3-2 SU record, 2-3 ATS in Vegas.  The wins came against William & Mary, Ohio State and Western Michigan.  The Gobblers are 1-3 ATS as a chalk. 

In the 50-35 loss to East Carolina, the Tar Heels only lost the yardage battle by 50 yards, if they didn’t fall behind 22-7 at the half, they may have had enough energy to make it a closer game. Remember UNC brought back 15 starters from a 7-6 team, and does possess sufficient talent to challenge any team on their schedule.  Although I will note the Heels have ND up next at South Bend.  Virginia Tech is coming off a home coming win over Western Michigan 35-17 laying 21. The Gobblers had a 9 minute edge in TOP. Plus a 255 yardage advantage. But, recall Va. Tech DID NOT COVER.  Last year Tech defeated the Tar Heels 27-17 in Blacksburg.  The Gobblers got off to a quick HT lead of 21-7 and then hung on for the victory.  Still, Tech had just 48 yards rushing, 1.4 ypc…The Tar Heels had some key opportunities on offense, but came up short.  Overall, the game changed on three turnovers by North Carolina.

Interesting spread numbers show Tech 0-10-1 ATS vs. a unit w/revenge off a SU loss.  And, 3-11 ATS in road games.  Further the Gobblers are 8-20 ATS off a SU win and 1-5 ATS in conference.  Aspiring UNC has much road to cover against athletic Va. Tech, but the Heels are 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and 17-5 ATS at home against a unit with a losing road mark.  In closing, we find UNC 8-0 ATS vs. a conference foe when booked as a HOME DOG after a DD SU loss…UNC!

5* Florida+ over Tennessee

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

10* PURDUE+ over Illini

BIG-10 SU UNDERDOG WINNER

BDS

4* UTAH STATE+ 2-1/2 over BYU

4* Oregon over Arizona

CFB SMASH MOUTH WINNER

BDS

3* FAU

First off the line value is the reason for the play along with the FAU road ATS successes. In addition, we have FIU playing a light schedule this year, but they upset UAB last time catching doubles. Obviously, the reason for -9 1/2 opener. FAU has played a stronger schedule and has been really challenged on both sides of the ball. I am keeping this at a 3* simply because of the site...Good Luck!

Play on:  4* (274)KC + 2-1/2 or 3 over New England @ 8:30

New England shows with a 1-2 SU mark after a 16-9 home win over Oakland.  The Patriots are 6-2 SU in the series and 7-0 ATS in game #4 of the season but, 0-7 ATS when playing on grass.  Other techs show NE 2-6 ATS off a SU win.  The Patriots are 5-1 ATS under the bright lights of MNF and 7-0 ATS vs. the AFC West.  They are 3-1 ATS B/4 playing Cincinnati.  However, as a RF they field in a bad spot...1-5 ATS which this being their third road trip in the first four weeks.  Fundamentally, NE is #11 in run defense, but their offensive line has allowed 7 sacks this season.  Major edges see PK Gostkowski as a key and a +5 turnover mark year-to-date.  HC Billy B. is 4-0 SU lifetime vs. Andy Reid.

Kansas City plays home off 1-2 start winning in Miami last week 34-15 as 4+ point underdog.  KC shows 4-1 ATS in September with 8-3 ATS support week #4 of the season.  KC has dropped 6 straight ATS at home, with a 1-9 ATS mark vs. the AFC East.  In addition, KC plays into an established NFL MNF home dog system for teams accruing under 2-1/2 points in Vegas.  Emotionally this is a revenge game for the Chiefs players that were around in 2011 in that 34-3 loss up in Foxboro.

Case

This season there are many issues evolving in the NFL.  First and foremost to me is the rhythm problem for quarterbacks and offenses because of the numerous borderline calls by the zebra minds.  It’s as though they have developed a compulsive disorder generating penalties to an excessive amount.  Those units that utilize a tempo offense (NE) have the most issues.  Statistically, we find some curious numbers as NE is dead last in the NFL in total offense (907) with about 300 yards per game.  Remember New England played Miami, Minnesota and Oakland.  On defense, NE has stopped the opposition holding them to just 818 yards per game, a 273 per game average.  KC is ranked #31 in total offense with 967 gained against Tennessee, Denver and Miami a higher rated cast than the NE three some.  By the way, the Chiefs defense is no slouch ranked #6 in total defense holding opponents to 1,062 yards slightly over 300 per game.  The KC defensive line is solid and can help by pressuring Brady. Where the Chiefs have to improve is stopping the run as the opposing rush games are averaging 5.1 yards-per-carry.  The Chiefs have hurt themselves this season giving up 6 turnovers.  Still, this is a very delicate set-up for HC Andy Reid as he is in a MUST WIN situation.  In his life time “Big Red” has been a valuable play as a home dog, especially when he was in Philadelphia. He would like nothing better than to win over Billy B. here, and just maybe RB Charles can bring his “A” game.  One final note, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in road games L11 times  out which is indicative of an established acceptable pattern…KC

5* Dallas+ over New Orleans

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Just like New England the Saints appear to be on the  down slide under HC Sean Payton.  On the other hand, the Cowboys are improving with their running game and defensive adjustments.  After losing BB games to start the season, New Orleans came back with a huge win 20-9 win over confused Minnesota. However, there is horrible technical news for the Saints as they show 2-6 ATS off a SU win and 2-8 ATS on the road.  The UNDERDOG has covered 8-of-9 in the series.  Other technical indicators have the ROAD team 5-35 ATS in New Orleans Saints football games. There are similar angles that fit, but we have allocated the more important for our sports-betting clientele. 

5* San Francisco over Philly

Would to find reasons to play the Eagles after their outstanding effort last week vs. Washington. Still, we backed Washington in these pages feeling the 'Skins were somewhat under valued.  However, we realize after seeing the Giants game on Thursday that the Eagles are not as good as advertised. Granted they have been squashed by injuries on the offensive line and QB Foles is banged up for sure.  He made be a tough cookie, but now has to go up against the Niners aggressive "D."  This should help the SF defense who has struggled early.  Emotionally, I really can't see the Eagles going across country and winning this SU.  Technically, there are 3-4 major systems that favor SF as 1-2 units off BB SU losses are big winners both SU and ATS in this spot. Because I have great respect for HC Chip Kelly I will keep this as a BEST BET.

3* Atlanta over Minnesota

NFL TECH BEAUTY

BDS

10* Oakland+ over MiamiNFL REVERSE ANGLEBDS

10* Texas State +3 or higher...over Tulsa

TSU a very under valued unit should win this SU as

they play into 33-9 tech system..Good Luck

P.S. Buy early!

092714

Play on:  4* UL-Monroe (194) over Troy @ 7:00 E

CFB KEY BEST BET 

We cashed another 10* last week going against a team from Loooisiana as the Bulldogs beat LSU 34-29.  Here we are backing a smaller school (ULM) with the more effective offense 15 starters returning from a 6-6 season. Troy BB 12 starters from a 6-6 team, but has 56 letters starting the season.  UL-Monroe goes into action Saturday 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS with wins over Wake Forest and Idaho.  Troy shows 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS being mauled by Georgia 66-0 last time. Their three loses had a net advantage of 121 points!  On offense ULM averages 18.3 points per game, while Troy comes in at 15.5 ppg.   Total defensive edge goes to ULM who has held the opposition to 24 ppg. with Troy coming in 48+ points.  However, we note Troy has played a tougher schedule vs. UAB, Duke and Georgia.  Still they rank #123 allowing almost 500 yards a game which really kills them when not in possession of the football.  The Warhawks have won three straight with a net 56 point edge all as UNDERDOGS. There is a slight ATS psychological edge for Troy as they are the underdog this time around.  Troy is 3-7-2 ATS in conference.  With the favorite in the series changing to ULM, I’ll make this a 4* unit play. Remember the week of rest for ULM is huge!

If the line drops look harder at ULM!

092714

Play on:  10* Southern Miss +8 ½ over Rice @ 7:00

This game took at -10 earlier in the week, but the sharps bought back to +8 ½ as I write overnight. Remember Southern Miss is a program that validated their work in 2011 with a 12-2 SU finish with 49-28 win over Houston in the CSA Championship game as +13 underdog. SM comes in this season off a 1-23 run SU, but they started 8 true frosh last year.  SM is 2-2 SU this season with wins over Alcon State and Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles were also blown out by Alabama (12-52) and Mississippi State (0-49).  The greater the competition, the more difficult the task for a program looking to regain status in the south.  Key this season will be the improvement of the offense by OC Lindsey who came from Auburn. The Golden Eagles are averaging 14.8 ppg., but two SEC games killed their production.  As most know there has been a change-over in the program since Todd Monken took the helm as the head coach.

Rice after winning the C-USA last season with a 10-4 record; has not won a game this year at 0-3 SU.  They have lost to quality opponents Notre Dame and Texas A&M, but lost to over valued ODU last week. Friday night ODU was destroyed by MTS 41-28. A technical note, Rice is 1-7 ATS after allowing 35+ in their last game.  The Owls return 12 starters from that team, and lead the SM series 3-1 SU. The Rice offense is balanced, but their running game (4.5) is where SM defense needs to focus. The weakness for Rice is their defense that allowed 43.7 ppg, and just as important a 528 yards per game deficit.  Clearly, this is where, I believe that weakness will allow the SM offense to come alive against the weak Rice defense. Critical this week will be the play of QB Nick Mullens, who started to play at SM as a true frosh last year.  He threw two INT’S last week vs. APst in the 21-20 win over the now FBS school.  Actually, Mullens was directly responsible for the win, though, as he accrued 268 yards through the air.  So, if the Golden Eagles fall behind Saturday they have the ability to at least buy-in for the back door cover.  Any help out of the so-so running game will add to the probability of this call. We note Rice is not Alabama or Mississippi State. Both of SM wins were at home this season. In closing, HC David Bailiff (8th season) will need to generate a fire under the Golden Eagles for a SU win here, but the points are the definitive value considering SM is 8-2-1 ATS off a SU win…Good Luck

5* Washington +7 1/2 over Stanford

PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

092714

Play on: 3* Temple -4 ½ over UConn

CFB EARLY CALL

BDS

The Huskies come in 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after falling at South Florida both SU & ATS last Thursday.  SF had a 35 play advantage on offense, while UCONN was 0-9 in third down situations.  After the Temple game the Huskies have a week off before they travel to Tulane.  The Philly Owls show at 2-1 SU and ATS after smashing FCS Delaware State 59-0. Their only loss was to Navy in Philadelphia 31-24.  There are two major factors which led me to Temple, the early public domain moving on UConn (-6-to-4-1/2) who has lost their starting quarterback Cochran.  Plus, in the UCONN 28-21 win over Temple in 2013 the Owls blew a 21-0 lead with the key play a P. J. Walker (Temple) interception for a TD by the Huskies.  So, our 2nd key angle is MAJOR REVENGE for Temple.  By the way, TU also has an open date on the agenda. We know the UNDERDOG has been the play in the series, but the Cochran injury has us looking to reverse that trend.

10* Louisville -21, not higher....over Wake Forest

ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Buy quickly the line is moving up!

4* Arkansas+ over A&M

We've used the 'Hogs often this season and we noticed the public

has finally caught up.  In fact, if you were to acquire +10 here you

meet the criteria for a TOP PLAY under out system.  But, since

reality has set in nationally knowing how good the 'Hogs are becoming

we'll use them as a strong play, instead of the obvious.

092714

Play on:  4* Maryland+ (117) over Indiana @ 1:30 E

Last week we picked up a solid 5* winner on Maryland over Syracuse the EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK.  Realize this time around the venue is quite different as Indiana is coming off a SU underdog win at Missouri 31-27.  Thought we’d at least see 6-6-1/2 type line (-4-1/2) with the TERPS win.  Still our openers show the lines makers have extracted value from Maryland as they realize their dual attack can cause serious problems for Indiana who is in a natural letdown situation.   Interesting both units are 0-6 ATS off a SU win, but Maryland is 5-2 ATS in September.  Feel with the Indiana running game controlling the clock, somewhat, the game will come down to the wire as Maryland is a tenacious football team.

4* San Francisco over Arizona

NFL ROAD WARRIOR SMASH

BDS

092114

Play on: 10* Washington+6 over Philadelphia @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL TOP PLAY CRUSHER ALERT

First off, before you consider going for Philadelphia, please note the Eagles are at HOME! They are 5-14-1 ATS in that “current reality.”  Although, they are the superior team we find some definitive angles supporting the ‘Skins.  Forgetting, Jackson, Washington has an additional day of preparation time than Philly with the Eagles off a MNF road win over the Colts.  When this happened in 2013 the Eagles lost SU.  No doubt the Chipper has won 5 straight at home. Both of these clubs slaughtered the Jaguars this year with Washington being more distinct considering they came up with 10 sacks.   Remember this is a divisional game and this series some memorable close calls here in Philly.  I do like the Eagles place kicking promise for the overall season. From the ‘Skins standpoint they pick up a huge addition here as their strong safety Brandon Meriweather is off his suspension.  So, the Washington 3-4 defense will play havoc against the Eagles multi-tasking running game with Sproles and McCoy.  Washington will be hurt with Jackson out but, this is an old series that has been closely contested in the past. With the road team hot at 10-4-1 ATS, I will play Washington +6 or higher.

10* California over Arizona

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

4* Houston over UNLV

The Rebels have no defense, while Cougars can score on anyone with their passing game. Home standing Houston shows 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS with their only win a 47-0 route over FCS Grambling State.  Their two losses were to UTSA 7-27 and BYU 25-33.  The Rebels show off a 1-2 start with losses to Arizona 13-58, and NIU 34-48.  They did defeat FCS Northern Colorado 13-12 laying 28. Obviously Vegas has UNLV rated too high in their power charts in the early going. Techs indicate a clear picture as Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in the first of BB home games vs. a unit off a SU loss. Visiting UNLV is a PERFECT 0-8 ATS as an UNDERDOG off a DD SU loss. Good Luck.

092014

Play on: 10* Mississippi State +10 over LSU @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB LINE VALUE TOP PLAY

LSU takes the field on Saturday night against the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.  It will be the SEC home opener for the Tigers, by the way LSU is 1-10-1 ATS in conference home openers.  Still, the Tigers should prevail in a very close game.  LSU won 59-26 in 2013 after State had LSU down late.  The Tigers have lost the majority of the offense that generated 563 yards against MSU LY, including Metz, Beckham, Landry, Hill etc.  They have young people at skill positions, especially QB Jennings and the wide out group.  LSU does have a solid backfield with Hilliard, Magee and Fournette.  Defensively, the Tigers brought back 7 starters, but the overall group has suffered injuries early (DL).  In the preseason I projected MSU as one of the most improved teams in the nation.  The Bulldogs are experienced and are laden with seniors.  More important, this is a huge game for HC Dan Mullen who will love nothing better than break the long losing streak to LSU, 1991 was the last win in Baton Rouge.  Key for MSU will be the effectiveness of QB Dak Prescott who’s greatest asset is mobility.  Prescott is an experienced junior who has had a taste of DC Chavis’ defensive approach.  The Bulldogs have a balanced enough attack to cause problems. Remember Prescott was recruited late by LSU, in the end went to Starkville. In 2014 MSU is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. so-so competition.  MSU does show strong in the second of BB road games hitting 8-of-10 ATS.  TAKE THE POINTS!

Play on: 3* BYU -14 or less (368) over Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern

This is a play against situation for Saturday.  Don’t lay more than 14.  As we stated earlier this season the Cavs coming off a 2-10 season could only look up.  Well HC Mike London (20-32) has done a great job as we forecasted 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.  However, the Cavaliers played another heart pumping affair last week winning SU at home as an underdog versus Louisville.  So, that’s 2-of-3 games of excessive emotion in their first three outings.  It appears going out on road visiting BYU in Provo where the air is thin could present a natural letdown situation for the Cavs. Virginia is 1-5 ATS off a SU win as an underdog.  Home standing Cougars are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after defeating Houston last Thursday 33-25.  In the Houston game the Cougars of BYU went out to a 23-0 lead then seemed to go flat allowing the visitor back in the game.  QB Hill of BYU is now the leader nationally with 7 touchdowns.  Clearly, BYU has the EMOTIONAL edge here after losing last season 19-16 at Virginia to start the season.  Plus they have extra time to prepare with their Thursday encounter against Houston the last encounter.  Remember BYU finished 8-5 SU in 2013 and brings back 14 starters with 45 lettermen.  BYU ROLLS!

5* Maryland over Syracuse

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

We had projected the Terps on the improve, despite their difficult loss last week.  In fact, we have them showing at +3 from the power rating standpoint vs. Syracuse. Recall Maryland has lost 5 straight in the series, and literally gave away the game LY in a 20-3 Orange win. The Terps have 17 starters returning and look to surprise the public this week. REVENGE!

10* Iowa+ over Pittsburgh

CFB LATE MONEY MOVE

BDS

Check back later for any LMMs over 4:00 Eastern...Good Luck!

3* Tampa Bay +7 nothing lower over Atlanta

Can't believe we are catching a whole number here. Falcons have been impressive offensively, but their defense is tissue paper. Feel the Bucs will be allowed to control the tempo with their running game.  Although TB hurting on defensive line PASS RUSH should still be there trending down QB (one of our fav players in the NFL) Ryan. Bucs 10-4 ATS in Atlanta, while ATL a horrid 2-5 ATS in September...The Points Please!

5* Indianapolis

First off we now know how bad Jacksonville is, after Washing handled the traveler quite easily Sunday...The Eagles will use Shady and Sproles to confuse a banged up Colts defense.  However, the QB Luck should have a field day with his strong offensive line vs. the Eagles secondary who catch my buzz.  Also, Indy lost last week to Denver in Mile High, and will be sky high at home for the MNF affair. Eagles 0-5 ATS in the series, 0-5 ATS in week #2. One closer you must have Indy is an incredible 14-2 ATS off a SU loss.

270
10* San Diego+ over Seattle
NFL TRAP OF THE MONTH
BDS
Between weeks #1 and #2 there is normally a HUGE KNEE-JERK off week #1 experiences. Everyone worth their salt took in the Seattle blowout win last Thursday night on ESPN. Here Seattle goes on the road where their VALUE depreciates considerably ATS vs. a San Diego team looking to rally off a loss in a game that was won by Arizona in the last 2 minutes with Carson Palmer TD pass, but San Diego covered. One concern is San Diego running game looked so-so, but that was against a solid Arizona defense. Technically, the UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series. Seattle is just 2-5 ATS in week #2 a natural letdown spot. We close with SD 5-0-1 ATS in September.

3* Jacksonville+ over Washington

NFL 1ST POWER UNDERDOG

BDS

091314

4* Western Kentucky+ 1-1/2 or 2 (147) over Middle Tennessee State @ 2:00 Eastern

Western is coming off a 42-34 loss to Big-10 entity Illinois after defeating Bowling Green 59-31 in their home opener.  The Hilltoppers brought back 12 starters from a team that went 8-4 SU.  Plus they have outstanding depth with 46 letters.  Middle Tennessee showed well last week despite losing 35-24 to Minnesota as a 16+ point underdog on the road.  The Blue Raiders seized the day in week #1 crushing Savannah State 61-7 in their home opener laying 40.  MTS brought back 13 starters from an 8-5 team and solid depth with 49 letters hitting the sideline.

The Illini returned 8 defensive starters from a unit holding opponents to 21.8 points per game.  In contrast Minnesota brings back 7 defensive starters to a unit that allowed almost 36-points per game.  When looking at the defensive power rankings, WKU has a slight advantage defensively.  Last week in the Illini game the number opened at -7, but was brought down as low as -3 ½…We made Illinois a 10* Line Value special here.  In the first two-three weeks of the season, overreactions to technical stats are common with the public.  WKU had covered 10 straight as a single digit underdog…Therefore, the overreaction.  The Hilltoppers are now 11-1 ATS getting single digits, plus they have a very bright new coach in Jeff Brohm who specializes in offense as he once was the starting quarterback at Louisville. After spending time as an assistant with the Chargers, then putting in two years as an Illini assistant, he is ready to upgrade WKU.  The home team is just 1-6 SU in the series.  With the opening line accruing some juice for WKU, I am on the Hilltoppers!

5* South Alabama (158) over Mississippi State @ 4:00 Eastern (ESPN)

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

HC Mullen (36-28) of MSU has the troops rolling after two encounters vs. Southern Mississippi (49-0) and UAB (47-34) covering vs. SM and falling short against the Blazers.  MSU is coming off a 7-6 season with 16 starters back.  They are my preseason choice to excel above their recent past.  Home standing SA comes off a 6-6 campaign with 15 starters back.  SA defeated Kent State on the road last week 23-13, but the Golden Flashes are a so-so unit as we have estimated another 4-8 season for the kids from Ohio.  South Alabama relies much on their running game averaging 4+ yards per carry.  I believe you will see the kids from Alabama become more offensive via the passing game. Remember SA lost to Mississippi State in 2012 by the score of 30-10, so we have a REVENGE scenario.  Also, MSU has LSU up next in Baton Rouge, but don’t expect a complete letdown considering the Bulldogs gave up 34 last week to the Blazers. The question is out on how much has the Bulldogs defense improved?  Based on last weeks’ experience, believe there are still some questions giving rise to the spread. SA is 4-0 ATS in September, while MSU 5-11 ATS in road games.  Before LSU the Bulldogs are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS.  Mississippi State 27 South Alabama 17

10* Arkansas +1 over Texas Tech

ROAD WARRIOR OF THE MONTH

BDS

NO COMMENT

Play on:  3* Wyoming (143) +43 1/2 or +44 over Oregon @ 2:00 Eastern

We did our best staying away from the national games last week.  However, I came within a few seconds of pulling the trigger on Oregon.  Statistically in that game MSU and the Ducks were almost even in total yardage?  No doubt the Spartans defense tired down the stretch.  In the third of a three game home stand the Ducks face Wyoming.   Wyoming brings back 16 starters and 45 letters.  They finished with a 5-7 record in 2013.  To start the season the Cowboys are 2-0 SU with key wins over Montana (17-12) and Air Force (17-13).  Oregon shows with 108-40 net point advantage vs. South Dakota State and Michigan State.  No matter, this is a key letdown spot for the Ducks after all the hype around the Michigan State game.  Next week Oregon opens their PAC-12 schedule with Washington State followed by 6 more conference games.  So, if there is going to be somewhat of respite, Saturday is our call.  Granted in order to beat a team on Oregon’s level you will need to control the tempo with a solid running attack.  Wyoming has no such strength, but they did accumulate almost 300 yards passing against the Falcons.  The Pokes should be able to strike for two scores with a BIG LETDOWN coming from Oregon….TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Virginia +7 (Must Have) over Louisville

This is our line value special with an early start on Saturday. Remember my Illni call last week? Here is a reverse scenario as the line adjustment is coming on our side with the CAVS. In order to maintain a true math advantage, play this ASAP. Virginia matches up in dead-even in our power ratings, so we have great situation overall...Plus WR Parker is out for Looie...TAKE THE POINTS!

WE ARE 11-0 IN MLB TOTALS GOING INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE GOY TYPE ANGLE GOING IN AN AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME...14-2 RUN!

3* Cincinnati -9 1/2 or less over Toledo

CFB LINE TRAP

BDS

NO COMMENT

Play on:  3* (103) Louisiana Tech+ 4 over North Texas @ 8:00 Eastern

Tech was our early choice last week, but we pulled back after the 2-1/2 point line movement Sunday through Monday.  Eventually, the game closed at UL-L -15-1/2 or -16.  The Bulldogs went on to an easy 48-20 underdog win at Louisiana.  LT is now 2-0 ATS on the season, including the loss at Oklahoma (16-48) getting 35-1/2 points.  North Texas comes Thursday night off an opening 38-7 loss at Texas and a huge bounce-back blowout win over SMU 43-6. Knowing the Louisiana Tech program fairly well, I can tell you in knee-jerk fashion that the Bulldogs should win this game SU.  My only reservation is the spot, Tech is playing their third straight road game. The game opened NT -6 on Sunday night, now the number is at -4, maybe -4 ½.  Last year NTU (-3) defeated LT 28-13 in Ruston, so this is a REVENGE game for the visitor. The Mean Green were 9-4 LY winning in bowl action against UNLV 36-14.However, NTU should have some trouble in key games with just 9 returning starters, no less none on the DL.  This works in LTs favor with their strong running attack controlling tempo.  Both units have FCS opponents next, so no look ahead.  Tech is 5-0 ATS off a SU underdog win and 16-6 ATS in road tilts.  Finally, the Mean Green strong at home covering 8-of-9.  However, as stated Louisiana Tech is our choice to win the whole game.

10* NYG+ 7 or more over Detroit
NFL REVERSE OF THE MONTH
BDS
Okay, we understand the Lions come in the more healthy team, unlike NYG that is playing with a banged up offensive line. No less, changing their attack to the west coast scheme. Plus Detroit does become more dangerous on offense with both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate playing outside. Remember both teams finished 7-9 last season with NYG winning 23-20 against the Lions on 12/22/13. NYG had just 41 yards on the ground. The Giants have won three straight in the series. The road team has covered 6 straight in Vegas, while the UNDERDOG has been money too at 5-1 ATS. One final note, the Giants finished 2013 the #8 ranked team in total defense, the Lions way down the pack. So, if the Giants can stifle the Lions offense in third down situations, the visitor just might pick up a SU win.

90714

Play on: 5* Atlanta+ over New Orleans @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

HC Sean Payton (79-53) of New Orleans (12-6) helped his team improve greatly last year on the way to a NFC South Championship.  The Falcons who finished 7-9 overall and 1-5 in the division hope to duplicate the Saints improvement in 2014.…The Saints have made some lineup changes and lost RB Sproles in the off-season to Philadelphia.  New Orleans is 13-3 SU in the series, but the home team has covered 5 straight games.  Atlanta has been successful in the series when booked as an UNDERDOG hitting 70% ATS.  Included in the overall scope of the game is the Falcons situational edge of DOUBLE REVENGE.  If Atlanta is able to control the clock with an improved running game, a SU win would be no surprise.  The Falcons are 5-1 ATS L6 on the Vegas board.

4* Jets over Oakland

The Raiders made little progress in key positions in the preseason. Now they have to travel to the east coast in early start vs. NYJ. We have real value with the overall perceptions concerning HC Ryan, QB's Smith/Vick abilities to direct the attack. Plus New York finished ugly in preseason with a huge deficit down in Philadelphia. In the overall series, the Jets carry fine history marks at 6-1-1 ATS. The traveling Raiders who 0-5 ATS against the AFC, and played into a negative role as an underdog...1-5 ATS to be exact...JETS!!

090614

Play on:  10* Utah over Fresno State

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Hard to believe FSU who let out 700+ yards against Southern Cal, while succumbing to a 52-13 loss, can even restructuring Utah.  The major missing piece from last year is the starting QB for the Houston Texans, Derek Carr who threw 50 touches last year for the Bulldogs.  Noticing that once the Fresno defense moved up in class (USC) they were destroyed early and often failing 35-6 at half-time. Now they must suck it up and go back on the road vs. another PAC-12 team the Utah Utes.  Remember Fresno brought back only 5 starters on offense.  Utah is a much different story.  They crushed an FCS unit Idaho State 56-14.  That does grant them exempt status vs. Fresno State, they will need to excel in all aspects of their game to win and cover.  Utah brings back 12 starters and 53 letters, so they do have depth.  Last season, despite their 5-7 mark played well against some of the conference elite, upsetting Stanford, losing by one to ASU and by seven to UCLA.  Also, they won SU at 8-5 BYU.  My reasoning is the Utes have played at a higher level against elite teams than Fresno faces on an annual basis.  Kyle Willingham is a great coach and should have his troops prepared well.  Techs show the Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS vs. the PAC-12.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-0 ATS at home in this series.  We close with FSU 14-37-2 ATS off a SU loss.  Playing B2B games on the road vs. Southern Cal and now Utah is a killer for any football team.

090614

Play on:  4* New Mexico State+ (331) over Georgia State @ 2:00 Eastern

GSU is coming off a 0-12 season with just 8 RS hitting the field.  Last week they won a thriller over Abilene Christian 38-37 an FCS school.  AC had a 9 minute TOP advantage and still loss.  Two 4th down conversions helped GSU, along with their return units garnering field position.  But, trying to leap frog into FBS status can be a tricky transition.  LV opened GSU -3 vs. NMS, the game is down to -1, and rightly so.  Remember, the Aggies were forecasted to have an upgrade last year with Doug Martin taking over the controls as head coach.  Unfortunately, they still faltered with a 2-10 record, 3-21 L2 years overall.  Last week they did cash with 28-10 win over Cal Poly, nothing to brag about, but a win in which they controlled the line of scrimmage with their running attack.  The visiting Aggies have 13 RS, 8 on offense. The biggest asset NMS has going this season is their move to the Sun Belt Conference.  They play only one monster in 2014, and that’s LSU.  Last year they played a rough schedule vs. Texas, Minnesota, UCLA, San Diego State and Boston College.  Clearly, GSU is a major drop-off in game tension, so we should secure a solid win here on Saturday…Good Luck!

4* South Alabama over Kent State

COLLEGE LINE VALUE BEST BET

BDS

10* Illinois -4 or less over Western Kentucky

CFB LINE VALUE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Write-up Delayed.

090514

Play on: 3* Nevada+ over Washington State

Just like UTSA last night Nevada is part of a highly successful "returning starter" system that has been prevalent over the last 20+ years.  Overall, the game should go to the wire with the spread favoring the WOLFPACK who have 17 returning starters.

090514

10* (304) Boston College+ over Pittsburgh @ 7:00 Eastern

Eastern Edge Game of the Month

Both schools are coming off initial successes Boston College defeated UMass 30-7, while Pittsburgh thrashed Delaware 62-0.  Pittsburgh leads the series 16-13, winners of three straight.  This series has been closely contested with 8 games showing a net difference of four points or less. The schools last played in 2004. Key loss from last years team for BC is RB Williams who was one of the most productive backs in the country and a Heisman hopeful…Against UMass it appeared the BC running game did not lose a beat, however, with the Murphy, Rouse and Willis tandem productive outbursts.  In the Pittsburgh 62-0 win last week RB Conner mauled the Blue Hens for four touchdowns.  Still, the Panthers did lose key WR Boyd with a hand injury. So, once again look for Pitt to go to the running game for their overall offensive needs.  They show 1-5 SU at BC and 5-13 SU in road starts. Technically, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS off a SU win and 0-10 ATS against the ACC.  Whereas, the younger BC unit has solid numbers covering 5-of-6 at home, and 4-0 ATS at home versus a school with a winning road mark. Realize BC last lost their last two FBS home openers to Miami Fla. (2011) and Northwestern (2012), but this is a bigger game for the Eagles who are looking for RESPECT in their new haunt, the ACC.

LSU opens in Reliant Stadium on August 30th against talented Wisconsin. The Badgers second year coach Gary Anderson completed a solid 2013 with an impressive 9-4 mark. However, the Badgers did finish on a sour note losing to South Carolina 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl.  This season Wisconsin brings back 9 starters, but none on the defensive line. Overall the Badgers finished statistically #7 on defense in 2013 and solid replacements and aggressive "D."  The Tigers will have QB Jennings in the saddle first in the battle with QB Brandon Harris for the overall job. Figured pretty much from Miles who believes in the UC status.  The Tigers solid OL and RB corpse can play with most teams in the country, but the WR unit has been depleted with key recruit Malachi Dupree not making the trip.  On defense, the unit was hurt with super CB Rashard Robinson's suspension.  DC "Chief" Chavis is a class act and now has more experienced LB's to work with this season. As we mentioned the DL is an issue and a "new" unit, so we imagine the Badgers will do some damage with a more athletic quarterback.  In such a toss-up game, feel the POINTS are the VALUE.

Play on: 10 DIME ARKANSAS over Auburn

SEC MASSIVE CRUSHER

BDS

NO COMMENT

083014

5* Alabama (177) over West Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK

Our opening play in college football goes on the road to Morgantown West Virginia as the Crimson Tide take on the Mounties.  West Virginia brings back 13 starters to the key 22.  Alabama has 12 starters back, but are loaded on both sides of the ball.  They finished the season 0-2 SU with losses to Auburn and Oklahoma.  Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? West Va. finished 4-8 SU last season, losing their last three games to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State.  Granted the Mounties have more experience this year, but QB Clint Trickett is coming off shoulder problems.  Defensively, they have just one talented starter coming back on the “D” line.  Saturday the Crimson Tide plays with Nick Saban being considered the most talented coach in College Football.  Alabama is 46-7 SU in his last L4 seasons, but the Tide is coming off a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, a game in which the chalk gave away 4 turnovers.  Former Alabama QB AJ McCarron committed two turnovers helping OU to 14 points. Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? Against the spread there are some conflicting numbers as we show Alabama 8-0 ATS -28 or less in non-conference (note the aforementioned line reference), but 0-5 ATS off B2B SU losses. Also, we show ‘Bama 7-0 ATS in the first lined game of the year.  Finally, teams losing their bowl games SU when laying 7 or more are hitting 60% ATS in game #1. WVU is killing their backers going 8-15 ATS L2 years and 3-13 ATS at home against a unit off a double-digit SU defeat….ALABAMA!

10* Virginia+ over UCLA

LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS