|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-02-22||North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151||Top||81-77||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
North Carolina vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET
Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)
Duke has played 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games and that includes 5-0 (161.2 PPG) if the number was 146.0 or greater. The Blue Devils scored 78 or more points in 9 of their last 10 while shooting 47.8% or better in all 10.
North Carolina has scored 82.5 points per game in this NCAA Tournament. They also have averaged a robust 64.5 field goal attempts per game which equates to a lightning-fast pace. The Tar Heels will be facing a Duke team which has scored their opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game this season. North Carolina has played 7-0 to the over this season versus teams that outscored their opponents by 12.0 or more points per contest and there was an enormously combined 170.0 points scored per game.
Since the start of the 2019 season, these bitter ACC rivals have met 6 times and each of those contests have gone over the total. Ironically enough, the average total in those contests was 151.4 which is nearly identical to today’s number, and there was a combined 171.7 points scored per game. Duke is currently #1 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and North Carolina is #18. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|03-29-22||St Bonaventure -120 v. Xavier||Top||77-84||Loss||-120||9 h 41 m||Show|
St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier 7:00 PM ET
Play On: St. Bonaventure -120 (10*)
Xavier is atoning for a underachieving regular season with this NIT run to Madison Square Garden. However, all 3 of their NIT wins were on their home floor and 2 of them came by only a combined 6 points. Xavier is just 5-8 SU this season in road and neutral site games. The Musketeers entered the NIT having gone 2-8 in their previous 10 games.
St. Bonaventure has literally traveled a more difficult path. The Bonnies 3 NIT victories all came on the road versus Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Furthermore, they were an underdog in each of those contests. The Bonnies are extremely disciplined. They have committed only 8.8 turnover per game throughout its last 5 contests and allowed their opponents just 9 free throw attempts per contest. This is a battle tested Bonnies team that earlier this season posted neutral site wins over Clemson, Boise State, and Marquette. The latter 2 teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Give me St. Bonaventure for a Top Play money line wager.
|03-26-22||Arkansas v. Duke -3.5||Top||69-78||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
Arkansas vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET
Play On: Duke -3.5 (10*)
Arkansas is coming off a huge emotional upset win over the #1 ranked team in the country Gonzaga. Now with just 1-day of rest, they have to face another blue-blood in Duke with a legendary head coach is retiring at their season’s end. Granted that the Razorbacks win over Gonzaga was an impressive one. Nevertheless, let’s not forget that they had narrow 4 and 5-point wins over #12 seed New Mexico State and #13 seed Vermont during the first 2 rounds.
Duke is a very well-balanced team. The Blue Devils are #2 nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 121.0 points scored per 100 possessions. Duke is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.4 points per their opponent’s 100 offensive possessions. Arkansas has been dominant defensively in their previous 2 games. However, Duke has averaged 82.2 points scored per game while shooting a scalding hot 54% from the field throughout its previous 9 contests. Comparatively, Arkansas has shot 39.4% from the field and made a dismal 25.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over their last 5 games. Arkansas also has scored 22.8% of their points from the free throw line this season which is 8th highest in the country. Conversely, Duke has allowed their opponents a mere 12 free throw attempts per game this season. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-25-22||Providence v. Kansas -7.5||Top||61-66||Loss||-105||29 h 18 m||Show|
Providence vs. Kansas 7:29 PM ET
Play On: Kansas -7.5 (10*)
I have been harsh on Kansas all season. However, this matchup versus Providence suits them well and I’m calling for a decisive Jayhawks win and cover. Throughout their last 6 games, Kansas has allowed just 63.5 points per contest and limited their opponents to a combined 37.5% shooting. Additionally, Kansas is 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 10.0 or less and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. This is a well-balanced Kansas team that #6 nationally in offensive efficiency and #27 defensively.
Granted Providence shot 51.9% in their 79-51 blowout win over #12 seed Richmond in their previous game. However, it marked the first time since 1/23 that the Friars had shot 50% or better from the field. Furthermore, despite that good shooting game, Providence has made only 40.3% of their field goal attempts over its last 5 games. It also must be noted that providence faced a #13 and #12 seed in their 2 NCAA Tournament wins. They’ll be stepping up in class to take on the #2 seed Jayhawks (30-6). Give me Kansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-24-22||Texas Tech v. Duke||Top||73-78||Loss||-110||29 h 51 m||Show|
Texas Tech vs. Duke 9:39 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech -110 (10*)
We have the lower ranked and lower seeded team as a favorite in this contest. Public bettors have flocked to the window early to bet on Duke just as I expected. However, like I said on numerous occasions, my trust lies in the oddsmakers uncanny ability to set an accurate line 24/7 and 7 days a week over all else. The Red Raiders weren’t at their best in their 59-53 second round win over Notre Dame but still walked away with a win. Nevertheless, their calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. Notre Dame entered that 2nd round matchup having shot 50% or better in 5 consecutive games. Texas Tech forced the Fighting Irish into a horrible 32% shooting day. The Red Raiders have now held opponents to less than 40% shooting and 62 points or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games. Furthermore, Texas Tech is #1 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 84.4 points per opponent 100 offensive possessions. How good a rating is that? The next best team in terms of defensive deficiency that’s part of the ‘Sweet 16 field is Gonzaga at 89.7. Give me Texas Tech for a money line wager.
|03-23-22||Washington State v. BYU -135||Top||77-58||Loss||-135||10 h 43 m||Show|
Washington State @ BYU 9:00 PM ET
Play On: BYU -135 (10*)
During their 2 NIT games with both played at home, BYU has scored 91.5 points per contest and shot a sizzling hot 53.7% from the field. AS a matter of fact, BYU has shot 50.8% or better in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, Washington State has shot 38.1% or worse in 10 of its previous 14 games. This is a battle tested BYU team that has played the 31st toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Cougars are 14-2 at home this season with their lone defeats coming versus #1 Gonzaga and San Francisco who lost to #20 Murray State in overtime during a 1st round NCAA Tournament game. Give me BYU on the money line for a Top Play wager.
|03-20-22||TCU v. Arizona -9.5||Top||80-85||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
TCU vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET
Play On: Arizona -9.5 (10*)
TCU is coming off an extremely impressive 69-42 win over Seton Hall on Friday. However, the Horned Frogs have gone just 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a win in its previous game. Additionally, there’s a sizable disparity in the opponent they’ll face today compared to a Seton Hall team that was average at best over the 2nd half of their season. TCU has scored less than 70 points in each of its last 5 and 9 of their previous 11 games. That’s problematic when it comes to this matchup when considering Arizona has scored 81 points or more during its last 7 and 11 of their previous 12 games. The Wildcats have also shot 49% or better during 11 of its previous 13 games. Arizona is far the better team in this game and will walk away with a decisive win and cover. Give me Arizona minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-19-22||St. Mary's v. UCLA -2.5||Top||56-72||Win||100||25 h 29 m||Show|
St. Mary’s vs. UCLA 7:10 PM ET
Play On: UCLA -2.5 (10*)
St. Mary’s looked terrific in their 82-53 rout of Indiana on Thursday. Conversely, UCLA closed the game on a 15-4 run in their narrow 57-53 win over Akron in a game they were a sizable 13.5-points favorite. As a result, we’ve seen a plethora of early bets and money being wagered on St. Mary’s. I’m predicting UCLA will bounce back with a huge performance on Saturday. This is an experienced UCLA team that advanced to the Final Four a season ago and that will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me UCLA minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-17-22||Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas||Top||71-75||Win||100||26 h 54 m||Show|
Vermont vs. Arkansas 9:20 PM ET
Play On: Vermont +5.5 (10*)
This line jumped right off the screen at first glance. Here we have the #17 Arkansas Razorbacks from the powerful SEC 25-8 as just a 5.0-point favorite versus a team that won the America East Conference. However, this is a Vermont Catamounts team that has an outstanding 28-5 record and that includes 22-1 during its previous 23 games. The Catamounts also went 2-1 in non-conference play versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Their wins came versus the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs and the other against the Patriot League automatic qualifier the Colgate Raiders. Their loss came at #13 Providence by 10. The Catamounts defeated UMBC in the conference title game by a lopsided 82-43 score. Since the start of last season, Vermont has won 8 games by 30 points or more, and they followed the previous 7 by going 7-0 SU&ATS while winning by a substantial 24.6 points per contest. Give me Vermont plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-15-22||Indiana v. Wyoming +4.5||Top||66-58||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
Wyoming vs. Indiana 9:10 PM ET
Play On: Wyoming +4.5 (10*)
Indiana is certainly the bigger brand than Wyoming and plays in a better Conference. Which aligns itself with an enormous amount of early money being wagered on the Hoosiers. However, the Mountain West Conference was vastly underrated this season which is evidenced by their 4 NCAA Tournament berths and 2 of those teams (Boise State, Colorado State) being currently being ranked in the Top 25. It must be noted, Indiana has gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 games versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field.
Wyoming is coming off a loss against #23 Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been resilient this season which is proven by their 6-1 SU record following a loss. They were also an extremely profitable 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Give me Wyoming plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-12-22||Texas Tech +2.5 v. Kansas||Top||65-74||Loss||-106||5 h 14 m||Show|
Texas Tech vs. Kansas 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech +2.5 (10*)
I may be in the minority when I say that Texas Tech is the overall better team in this matchup. I also like their chances of a deep NCAA Tournament run far better than that of the higher ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These teams split the 2 games during regular season action with the home side posting blowout victories on each occasion.
During their 2 Big 12 Tournament games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma the Texas Tech Red Riders have been dominant defensively. They held those opponents to only 48.0 points scored per contest and a mere 34.7% shooting. During their 2 regular season meetings versus Kansas, Texas Tech averaged 83.0 points scored per contest and shot an impressive 48.3%. Give me Texas Tech plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-11-22||Miami-FL v. Duke -8.5||Top||76-80||Loss||-110||6 h 19 m||Show|
Miami vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Duke -8.5 (10*)
This is a Duke team which has shoot 48% or better in each of their last 6 games. Conversely, Miami has allowed its opponents to shoot 48% or better during 5 of its previous 6 contests. Duke will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 76-74 home loss to Miami earlier this season in a game they closed as a 15.0-point favorite. The Blue Devils had a scare yesterday before pulling away late in a 9-point win over an undermanned Syracuse team that they blew out twice during regular season action. That’s not likely to occur again. Miami narrowly escaped with a 2-point overtime win over a hapless Boston College team in yesterday’s conference quarterfinals. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-10-22||Virginia Tech -125 v. Notre Dame||Top||87-80||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Virginia Tech -125 (10*)
Virginia Tech’s NCAA Tournament chances continue to be on life support after yesterday’s thrill buzzer beating 3-point shot in a 1-point win over Clemson. I look for them to carry that momentum into today. The Hokies are now 10-2 in their last 12 games. Since the start of last season, Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU in their games versus Notre Dame. Virginia Tech is an excellent defensive team that has allowed only 61.7 points per game. Conversely, Notre Dame is 1-7 SU this season versus opponents who allow 64 points or less per game. The Fighting Irish are also 0-3 SU&ATS in lined neutral site games this season. Barring something unforeseen, Notre Dame is a lock to make “The Big Dance”. On the other hand, Virginia tech needs at least 1 more if not 2 more wins in this ACC Tournament to possibly get there. I’m going with the team that will surely exhibit more desperation and urgency in this matchup. Give me Virginia Tech.
|03-08-22||St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -12.5||Top||69-82||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Gonzaga -12.5 (10*)
It’s apparent by current betting patterns that the public is wagering on St. Mary’s plus the sizable number like it’s an absolute cinch. After all, these teams just met on 2/28 in the regular season finale for both teams and St. Mary’s walked away with a convincing 10-point win as a 10.5-point home underdog. Additionally, the Gaels held Gonzaga to a season low 57 points and 36.7% shooting. I’m here to tell you that’s not happening again. Gonzaga was caught in a flat spot, and the Bulldogs will bounce back with vengeance tonight. The oddsmakers were certainly not deterred by that previous result based on the opening number of 13.5. Gonzaga will show their upper echelon class tonight in a revenge situation. Give me Gonzaga minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-05-22||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -2||Top||64-67||Win||100||20 h 24 m||Show|
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Texas A&M -2.0 (10*)
Mississippi State has gone a dismal 1-8 SU in SEC road games this season with their only win coming versus a Missouri team which has a poor 4-13 conference record and is 10-20 overall. The Bulldogs are coming off a disheartening home overtime loss to #5 Auburn that for all intent and purposes eliminated them from a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs recovering emotionally from that loss just 3 days later. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 0-4 SU&ATS this season within the point-spread parameter of pick to +4.0.
Texas A&M starter the season 15-2 then proceeded to lose 8 straight games. Since that time, the Aggies have rebounded to win 4 of their last 5 and includes a present 3-0 SU&ATS run. As a matter of fact, Texas A&M is coming off a 10-point road win over #25 Alabama in a game they closed as a 16.0-point underdog. During their current 3-game winning run, the Aggies scored 84.7 points per contest and shot a blistering hot 55.8% from the field. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|03-02-22||Auburn v. Mississippi State +4||Top||81-68||Loss||-104||8 h 40 m||Show|
Auburn @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mississippi State +4.0 (10*)
Auburn has gone 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Their only 2 SU wins came against the 2 worst teams in the SEC in Missouri and Georgia. As a matter of fact, those 2 wins came by a combined 3 points and they were favorites of 14.0 and 14.5 in those contests. Conversely, Mississippi State has gone 7-1 SU in conference home games this season. The Bulldogs have shot 49% or better in each of their previous 5 at home. Give me Mississippi State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|03-01-22||Providence v. Villanova -9.5||Top||74-76||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
Providence @ Villanova 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Villanova -9.5 (10*)
We have the higher ranked team in #9 Providence (24-3) as close to a double-digit underdog against #11 Villanova (21-7). Just as I expected, public money has been overwhelmingly in favor of Providence. I seldom if ever go with what can be perceived as the obvious choice. This betting situation certainly qualifies in the regard. Furthermore, I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers more than those voters participating in the national polls. These teams met just 2 weeks ago at Providence and Villanova walked away with a 5-point win. This is one of those times that the revenge factor means very little to me. The Friars just don’t match up well against Villanova. I’m calling for a decisive win and cover by the home favorite Wildcats. Gove me Villanova minus the points for my Big East Game of the Year”.
|02-26-22||Auburn v. Tennessee -3.5||Top||62-67||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
Auburn @ Tennessee 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee -3.5 (10*)
This line jumped right off the page to me since #3 Auburn comes up as an underdog versus #17 Tennessee. Especially when considering, if this game were being played at Auburn, the Tigers would only be no more than a 3.0 or 4.0-point favorite. Since Auburn was ranked #1 for a first time in program history in late January, they’ve been dominant at home but very beatable on the road. Specifically speaking, during that time span Auburn is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road. Additionally, their only 2 SU road wins in that stretch came over Missouri by 2 as a 14.0-points favorite and by 1 over Georgia as a 14.5-point chalk. Those 2 opponents are arguably the worst teams in the SEC this season. Conversely, Tennessee is a perfect 14-0 at home this season. The Volunteers are #36 nationally out of 358 Division 1 teams in terms of home court advantage. Tennessee is also #3 nationally in defensive efficiency in giving up just 87.9 points per their opponents 100 offensive possessions. Give me Tennessee minus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|02-23-22||LSU v. Kentucky OVER 142||Top||66-71||Loss||-110||7 h 24 m||Show|
LSU @ Kentucky 9:00 PM ET
Play On” Over 142.0 (10*)
LSU has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 and that includes 4-0 over (145.5 PPG) on the road. Kentucky has played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 141.5 or greater and a combined 163.7 points were scored per game. Kentucky is ranked #4 national in offensive efficiency while scoring 120.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. The last 5 Kentucky games have seen a combined average of 127 field goal attempts per game which equated to an extremely fast pace by college basketball standards. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|02-22-22||Villanova v. Connecticut OVER 136.5||Top||69-71||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
Villanova @ Connecticut 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 136.5 (10*)
Villanova has played 7-1 to the over in conference away games this season and there was a combined average of 147.1 points scored per contest. The Wildcats have also gone over the total in 5 of its last 6 overall with a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Villanova averages 9 three-point makes per game this season. Conversely, Connecticut has played 7-1 to the over this season versus opponents that average 8 or more 3-point makes per contest and there was a combined 160.0 points scored per game. During the first meeting of the season, Villanova walked away with an 85-74 home win and that contest easily sailed over the total of 128.5. The adjustment has been made to their 2nd matchup, but it still won’t prevent this game from surpassing the number. Give me this game to go over the total as a Top Play wager.
|02-19-22||Texas A&M v. Vanderbilt -3.5||Top||67-72||Win||100||20 h 9 m||Show|
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Vanderbilt -3.5 (10*)
Vanderbilt was very competitive in road losses at #2 Auburn and #19 Tennessee. They covered the Tennessee game and fell just short in a 14-point loss to Auburn as a 13.5-point underdog. The Commodores return home where they’ve won 3 straight and a much-improved team than we saw earlier this season. Conversely, Texas A&M started the season 15-2 and then since that time they’ve gone 1-8. Their lone victory in that sequence came by 1 at home over Florida. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Give me Vanderbilt minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|02-17-22||Towson v. NC-Wilmington +3.5||Top||79-55||Loss||-110||5 h 7 m||Show|
Towson State @ UNC-Wilmington 6:00 PM ET
Play On: NC-Wilmington +3.5 (10*)
NC-Wilmington continues to not get much respect from oddsmakers despite going 14-2 SU&ATS in their last 16 games versus Division 1 opponents. Furthermore, the Seawolves have gone a superb 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU in their last 9 as an underdog. Wilmington is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in lined home games this season, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. Give me UNC-Wilmington plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|02-16-22||Vanderbilt v. Auburn OVER 143||Top||80-94||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
Vanderbilt @ Auburn 9:00 ET
Play On: Over 143.0 (10*)
Vanderbilt has gone over the total in each of their last 5 contests. The Commodores shot a blistering hot 43.5% from 3-point territory throughout that 5-game stretch. Auburn is coming off a 75-58 home win over Texas A&M in a game that easily went under the totakl of 141.5. However, Auburn has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 following an under and there was a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Both teams have recently been great at getting to the foul line. Through each team’s previous 5 outings, Vandy averaged 23 free throw attempts per contest and Auburn did so 26 times per game. Conversely, during that identical 5-game stretch, both teams sent their opponents to the free throw line with almost identical frequency. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|02-12-22||Ohio State +2.5 v. Michigan||Top||68-57||Win||100||23 h 41 m||Show|
Ohio State @ Michigan 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)
My prediction is Michigan will be a heavily bet side in this matchup after their 82-58 home blowout over #3 Purdue on Thursday. It was far and away the best that Michigan has played all season. It would be a big ask to expect Michigan to turn in a similar dominating performance over another ranked team just 2 days later. It’s also unlikely the Wolverines will be able to match the emotion and laser like focus they displayed against Purdue. Conversely, #16 Ohio State will be in a sour mood after being upset 66-64 at Rutgers on Wednesday night. The good news for Buckeye backers is that their team is 5-0 SU this season following a loss. Give me Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|02-10-22||Purdue v. Michigan OVER 144.5||Top||58-82||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
Purdue @ Michigan 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 144.5 (10*)
#3 Purdue enters this contest after going over in their last 5 and with a combined 160.2 points scored per game. The Boilermakers have scored 80 points or more in 6 straight and 8 of its last 9 games. Purdue is #1 nationally out of 357 teams playing Division 1 basketball in offensive efficiency while scoring 126.5 points per 100 possessions. They’ll be facing a Michigan team that has allowed 74.2 points per game and permitted opponents to shoot 49.2% over their previous 5 contests.
Michigan has seen all 4 of their conference home games go over the total with a combined average of 148.4 points scored per game. The Wolverines are #24 national in offensive efficiency at 113.8 points scored per 100 possessions. Michigan will be out to avenge an 82-76 loss at Purdue in a game that took place just last Friday. That contest easily surpassed the total of 145.5. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|02-09-22||Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5||Top||72-63||Loss||-107||9 h 45 m||Show|
Tennessee @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mississippi State +1.5 (10*)
#19 travels to Biloxi, Mississippi for what shapes up to be a tough matchup despite them facing an unranked opponent. The Volunteers are coming off an 81-57 blowout win at South Carolina. Since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 0-4 SU following a conference win by 20 or more and lost by an average of 9.3 points per game. The Volunteers are just 2-4 SU in conference away games this season.
Mississippi State has displayed a strong home court advantage this season while going 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in those games. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season The Bulldogs are coming off a 63-55 loss at Arkansas in a game they shot just 35.3% from the field. Mississippi State is 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they shot less than 40% and has a substantial victory margin of 18.0 points per game. The Bulldogs are in desperate need of a signature win over a ranked opponent to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. Give me Mississippi State for a Top Play wager.
|02-08-22||Auburn v. Arkansas +2.5||Top||76-80||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
Auburn @ Arkansas 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Arkansas +2.5 (10*)
They’re begging you to take the #1 Auburn Tigers as a short favorite over an unranked team. Since being ranked #1 for the first time in school history 2 weeks ago, Auburn has played 2 road games and turned in uninspiring performances against arguably the 2 worst SEC teams. They escaped with narrow wins by 1 at Missouri and by 2 versus Georgia. Conversely, this is a red-hot Arkansas team that’s riding an 8-game win streak and they covered on 7 of those occasions. The Razorbacks are also 13-1 at home this season. Give me Arkansas plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|02-05-22||Kentucky v. Alabama +1.5||Top||66-55||Loss||-110||23 h 32 m||Show|
Kentucky @ Alabama 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Alabama +1.5 (10*)
The one thing that’s been consistent for Alabama this season has been their inconsistency. The Crimson Tide is coming off a resounding 100-81 road loss at #1 Auburn. That defeat dropped the Crimson Tide’s season record to 14-8. They have also suffered puzzling losses to Iona, Davidson, at Georgia as a 14.5-point favorite, and at Missouri as a 14.0-point chalk. Nonetheless, there are many positives. Alabama has posted wins over #2 Gonzaga, #6 Houston, #8 Baylor, #22 Tennessee, and #25 LSU. So, it’s unlikely they’ll be intimidated by taking on #4 Kentucky at home where Alabama has gone 10-1 SU. Their lone home defeat was by a narrow 3-point margin against top ranked Auburn. Give me Alabama plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-03-22||UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 149||Top||66-76||Win||100||6 h 40 m||Show|
UCLA @ Arizona 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Under 149.0 (10*)
These teams met just 10 days ago in Los Angeles and UCLA walked away 75-59 win which easily went under the total of 150.5. These are 2 of the best defensive teams in the country with Arizona ranked #7 and UCLA #9 in defensive efficiency. Just a note, there are 357 teams playing Men’s Division 1 College Basketball.
UCLA has played 5-0 to the under during their previous 5 true road games and there was only a combined 123.2 points scored per contest. Conversely, Arizona is 5-0 to the under in their last 5 when the total was 143.0 or greater. The average total in those 5 contests was 152.0 and there was just 135.2 points scored per game. The Wildcats are coming off 2 consecutive atrocious shooting games in which they made an anemic 31.3% of their field goal attempts. UCLA has shown a significant drop off in offensive production when not play at the cozy confines of Pauley Pavillion in Los Angeles. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|01-31-22||Duke v. Notre Dame +5.5||Top||57-43||Loss||-110||4 h 42 m||Show|
Duke @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Notre Dame +5.5 (5*)
Notre Dame which has won 10 of their last 11 and is currently on a 4-game unbeaten streak will welcome the challenge of hosting #9 Duke. The Fighting Irish are not stranger to being a home underdog this season as they’ve been in that role twice already and fared well on both occasions. They defeated #4 Kentucky as a 4.5-points underdog and North Carolina as a 1.5-point dog. As a matter of fact, the Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 11.7 points per game. Despite their outstanding 17-3 season record, Duke is just 2-2 SU in true road games, and 2 of their 3 defeats came versus unranked opponents. Bet Notre Dame plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-29-22||Mississippi State v. Texas Tech -7||Top||50-76||Win||100||20 h 9 m||Show|
Mississippi State @ Texas Tech 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech -7.0 (10*)
This isn’t a good matchup for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 0-3 in true road game this season and they allowed 80 or more points on each occasion. They’ll be facing a Texas Tech team that’s 12-0 at home with an average victory margin of 23.7 points per game. Additionally, the Red Raiders are holding their visiting opponents to a mere 57.7 points per game and 37.8% shooting from the field. Mississippi State has faced just 1 team this season that’s currently ranked in the Top 25 and it was an 8-point loss at Kentucky in their previous game. Conversely, Texas Tech has gone 4-4 this season versus ranked teams. Bet Texas Tech minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-26-22||Marquette v. Seton Hall -5.5||Top||73-63||Loss||-110||7 h 49 m||Show|
Marquette @ Seton Hall 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Seton Hall -5.5 (10*)
Marquette is a red-hot 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests. That impressive winning run has catapulted them into the Top 25 for a first time this season at #22. Seton Hall spent most of this first half of the season as a Top 25 team. However, they just recently fell out of the Top 25 rankings and is coming off a terrible 20-point home loss to St. John’s on Monday. It’s redemption time for the Pirates tonight after losing by 1 at Marquette less than 2 weeks ago. It’s also time for a statement win after they’ve seemingly been sleep walking during recent losses. Bet Seton Hall minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-25-22||Michigan State v. Illinois -4.5||Top||55-56||Loss||-110||5 h 9 m||Show|
Michigan State @ Illinois 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Illinois -4.5 (10*)
This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. We have #24 Illinois (13-5) who lost their last 2 games as a sizable favorite versus #10 Michigan State (15-3). Additionally, Michigan State is coming off a convincing upset win at #8 Wisconsin this past Friday which made them 3-0 SU&ATS this season in conference road games. Conversely, Illinois has suffered 2 home losses this season at the hands of #3 Arizona and #6 Purdue. It’s just rarely that easy. Give me Illinois minus the points.
|01-22-22||Texas A&M v. Arkansas -8||Top||73-76||Loss||-108||20 h 6 m||Show|
Texas A&M @ Arkansas 8;30 ET
Play On: Arkansas -8.0 (10*)
Arkansas rebounded from a recent 3-game losing streak by winning its previous 3 games and all in impressive fashion. One of those wins came by 7 on the road at #13 LSU in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. Texas A&M is coming off a 64-58 home loss to Kentucky which halted their 8-game win streak. Despite that defeat, the Aggies still possess a sparkling 15-3 record and includes 4-1 in SEC action. Yet, they’re a sizable underdog versus an Arkansas squad that’s just 3-3 in SEC play and 13-5 overall. If there’s a trap game for college basketball bettors on Saturday’s enormous card this is the one. This line makes no sense to me and when that happens, I oppose what seems obvious. Bet Arkansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-21-22||Michigan State +3.5 v. Wisconsin||Top||86-74||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
Michigan State @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Michigan State +3.5 (10*)
What’s not to like about Wisconsin’s recent play. They’ve won 7 consecutive games and covered each of their previous 5. However, they’ll be in for their toughest test to date versus a terrific Michigan State team that’s coming off a home upset loss to Northwestern. The Spartans are 2-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss while winning by 26.5 points per game. Michigan State is also an unscathed 3-0 SU&ATS in true road games this season with their average point-spread being -6.3 and an average victory margin of 11.7. Give me Michigan State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-20-22||Purdue v. Indiana +3.5||Top||65-68||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
Purdue @ Indiana 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Indiana +3.5 (5*)
#4 Purdue is coming off a thrilling 96-88 overtime win at #17 Illinois on Monday night. Now they take on an unranked Indiana team that they’ve beaten 9 consecutive times. Furthermore, Indiana is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season and they covered 9 of those contests. The Hoosiers have been solid defensively in their 7 Big 10 Conference games while holding opponents to 63.6 points per contest and only 39.2% shooting. Bet Indiana plus the points.
|01-19-22||LSU v. Alabama -3.5||Top||67-70||Loss||-110||8 h 60 m||Show|
LSU @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Alabama -3.5 (10*)
This opening line and the ensuing movement jumped off the page at me. Alabama has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and fell out of the Top 25 for a first time this season. Yet, they opened as a 2.5-point favorite and is now -4.0 against #13 LSU. Speaking of LSU, they’re coming off a listless performance during a 7-point upset home loss to unranked Arkansas. I’m looking for Alabama to bounce back in a huge way in this matchup. Bet Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-18-22||Kansas v. Oklahoma +4||Top||67-64||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
Kansas @ Oklahoma 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Oklahoma +4.0 (10*)
Oklahoma has lost 3 of their last 4 but all those defeats came on the road. The Sooners are 9-1 at home this season. I really like this Sooners team and think they’re much better than their 12-5 record indicates. Former Loyola-Chicago head coach Porter Moser was a great hire by Oklahoma, and he’s been involved in several high-pressured NCAA Tournament games and was quite successful in those games at his previous stop with a majority coming as an underdog. Kansas is just 1-1 in true road games this season and is coming off a narrow 1-point win over Iowa State in a contest they were a sizable 12.5-point favorite. Bet Oklahoma plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-14-22||Michigan v. Illinois OVER 143.5||Top||53-68||Loss||-110||9 h 7 m||Show|
Michigan @ Illinois 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 143.5 (10*)
The Wolverines have averaged 63 field goal attempts per game in their last 5 which equates to a fast tempo and shot an impressive 48.3% while doing so. Conversely, Illinois has averaged 62 field goal attempts in their last 5 and shot 50.8% from the floor while making 41.8% of its 3-point shot attempts. Michigan has played 3-0 to the over in Big 10 Conference games and there was a combined 150.3 points scored per contest. Illinois has played 9-1-1 to the over in their last 11 and that includes 5-0 if the total was 141.0 or greater. Those 5 contests in that specific total’s parameter averaged a combined 163.4 points scored per contest. Bet this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.
|01-08-22||Kansas v. Texas Tech +4.5||Top||67-75||Win||100||15 h 43 m||Show|
Kansas @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech +4.5 (10*)
#6 Kansas (12-1) has faced just 1 team this season currently in the Top 25 and that was in their season opener versus #10 Michigan State. Conversely, #25 Texas Tech (10-3) only 3 losses this season came at the hands of #16 Providence, #11 Iowa State, and #4 Gonzaga. The Red Raiders also own a win over #18 Tennessee. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, Texas Tech has gone 68-10 at home and that includes 8-0 in their current campaign. The Red Raiders are a terrific defensive team that is 9th nationally in field goal percentage defense and #11 in scoring defense. We have a team with a strong home court which holds opponents to less than 40% shooting, allows less than 60 points per game, and has an extremely strong court. Bet on Texas Tech plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-07-22||Marquette v. Georgetown +2.5||Top||92-64||Loss||-110||6 h 57 m||Show|
Marquette @ Georgetown 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Georgetown +2.5 (10*)
Unranked Marquette is coming off a resounding 32-point home win over #16 Providence. We must keep things in perspective before overreacting to that blowout win which did indeed end a 4-game Marquette losing streak. Conversely, Georgetown is coming off a 80-73 home loss to TCY which put a halt to a 3-game Hoyas win streak. Marquette has played the much stronger schedule and has a better record than Georgetown. Yet, they’re just a tiny favorite in this matchup. It’s rarely that easy when it comes to sports betting. Bet Georgetown plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|01-06-22||USC v. California +5.5||Top||77-63||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
USC @ California 11:00 PM ET
Play On: California +5.5 (10*)
USC enters this contest with unbeaten 12-0 record and ranked #7 in the country. Nevertheless, they will be facing a red-hot California team which has won 5 straight and by an average of 17.6 points per game. During this current win streak, Cal is allowing just 52.8 points per game and held their opponents to a miserable 34.9% shooting from the field. Additionally, throughout their 5-game win streak Call has converted on a terrific 39.5% of its 3-point shot attempts and is a +10 rebound per game differential. Lastly, Cal was upset in their home opener by UC-Sam Diego, and since that time has reeled off 9 consecutive wins in Berkely while covering 8 of those contests. Bet California plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-03-22||Wisconsin v. Purdue -12.5||Top||74-69||Loss||-107||6 h 48 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Purdue 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Purdue -12.5 (10*)
We have two nationally ranked teams squaring off in this matchup. The #3 Purdue Boilermakers (12-1) enters this contest as a double-digit favorite versus the #23 Wisconsin Badgers (10-2). Purdue is 8-0 at home this season while winning by a substantial margin of 28.0 points per game. The Boilermakers have shot 50% or better in 10 of 13 games this season and have made an impressive 41.1% of their 3 point-shot attempts on the year. Purdue is also a dominant rebounding team at +14 per game in that category. The Badgers aren’t a great offensive nor rebounding team. Considering these are 2 ranked teams, this is a heavy line in which the sportsbooks are begging you to take the double-digit underdog. I’m not falling for the trap. Give me Purdue minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-15-21||Akron v. Wright State OVER 146||Top||66-48||Loss||-110||6 h 34 m||Show|
Akron @ Wright State 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 146.0 (10*)
Wright State has seen each of its last 4 contests go over the total and there was a combined average of 158.5 points scored per game. According to college basketball statistical guru Ken Pomeroy, Wright State ranks 31st out of 358 Division 1 teams in offensive tempo while averaging 72.2 possessions per 40 minutes. Additionally, Wright State opponents have an average length of offensive possession against them is 15.7 seconds which is 5th fastest in the country.
Akron has also played 4-0 to the over in its last 4 with a combined average of 145.8 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Akron has made an excellent 79.4% of their free throws and 39.3% of its 3-point shot attempts. Bet this game over the total for a Top Play wager.
|12-14-21||Alabama v. Memphis +3.5||Top||78-92||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
Alabama @ Memphis 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)
This game has trap written all over it. We have #6 Alabama coming off huge wins in their last 2 outings over #5 Gonzaga and #14 Houston who both were Final Four Teams last April. Then there’s Memphis who’s gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games after starting the season 5-0 and being nationally ranked. Yet, Alabama is a short favorite in this spot and would seem to be an obvious choice for novice bettors. Well, I’m not a novice and rarely does obvious choices in sports betting appeal to me. Bet Memphis plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-11-21||Arizona v. Illinois +3||Top||83-79||Loss||-110||6 h 35 m||Show|
Arizona @ Illinois 5:00 PM ET
Play On: Illinois +3.0 (10*)
This line opened with #11 Arizona (8-0) being a 1.0-point favorite and now it’s -3.0 against unranked Illinois (7-2). Public betting has surely been influenced by Arizona not only being 8-0 but 7-1 ATS as well. Conversely, Illinois started the season 2-2 but has reeled off 5 straight wins since. They covered each of their previous 3 versus Notre Dame, Rutgers, and at Iowa. During their current 5-game win streak Illinois has averaged a robust 84.2 points scored per game, shot 51.6%, and converted on a superb 41.5% of its 3-point attempts. Illinois also possesses an outstanding +14 rebound per game margin. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Illinois is 31-5 at home and has only been an underdog once. Bet Illinois plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-08-21||Michigan State -7 v. Minnesota||Top||75-67||Win||100||6 h 42 m||Show|
Michigan State @ Minnesota 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Michigan State -7.0 (10*)
Minnesota enters this contest with an unblemished 7-0 record. Yet, they received no votes in the latest college basketball AP Poll and for good reason in my opinion. They haven’t really beat anyone of note. The Golden Gophers will be playing its first game this season against a ranked opponent. The public will surely be enticed to take an unbeaten sizable home underdog like Minnesota against a 2-loss opponent. I on the other hand, look at this contest from a contrarian betting viewpoint.
#19 Michigan State is 6-2 with their only losses coming to #2 Baylor and #9 Kansas in their season opener. They own a win on a neutral floor over #15 Connecticut and another coming at home by 9 over Louisville. The Spartans are unequivocally more battle tested of the 2 teams in this matchup and it will pay dividends this evening. Not to mention, they’ll be out to revenge an embarrassing 25-point loss at Minnesota last season. Bet Michigan State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|11-30-21||Duke v. Ohio State +2.5||Top||66-71||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
Duke @ Ohio State 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)
Duke is coming off a huge win over then #1 Gonzaga which catapulted them to the top spot in the latest AP Poll. Now thy find themselves as a short favorite on the road against an unranked Ohio State team that’s already suffered 2 losses this season. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the top ranked Duke Blue Devils. I am declining that invitation. Bet Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|11-23-21||Washington v. South Dakota State -6||Top||87-76||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
Washington vs. South Dakota State 9:30 PM ET
Play On: South Dakota State -6.0 (10*)
This line opened at 7.5 and is now down to 6.0. I’m of the opinion that public and not sharp money was the cause of the line move. After all, we have a poer conference team as an underdog versus an opponent from the Summit. Washington is coming off yesterday’s 77-74 upset win over George Mason in a game thy closed as a 4.5-point underdog. It was by far the Huskies best offensive performance of the year while shooting 48% and considering they shot 40% or worse in each of their first 4 contests. Washington is 3-2 and suffered resume killing home losses to Northern Illinois as a 20.0-point favorite and Wyoming.
South Dakota State is a terrific mid-major team. I was on them yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite when they blew out Nevada 102-75. The Jackrabbits are 5-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in lined games. They’ve been superb offensively to start the season which is evidenced by them averaging 90.7 points scored per game while shooting an impressive 51.4% and a spectacular 44.1% from 3-point territory. The Jackrabbits only defeat came at #10 Alabama 104-88. Despite that loss, they still shot a stellar 48.6%. This is considered a neutral site game despite being played Sioux Falls, South Dakota as part of the Crossover Classic Tournament. Bet South Dakota State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|11-19-21||Ohio +12 v. Kentucky||Top||59-77||Loss||-110||5 h 44 m||Show|
Ohio @ Kentucky 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +12.0 (10*)
Kentucky is unequivocally the more talented in athletic team in this matchup. However, Ohio is an experienced and battle tested team. The Bobcats are the defending MAC Tournament champions and upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a #13 seed. Ohio has begun this season by going 3-0 SU&ATS. The Bobcats are averaging 12 three-point makes per game while converting on a solid 38.3% of those long-distance attempts. Look for that ability to knock down 3-point shots as a key contributing factor to us covering this game. Bet Ohio plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|11-18-21||Oklahoma v. East Carolina OVER 137.5||Top||79-74||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs. East Carolina 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 137.5 (10*)
Both teams in this matchup can score with regularity and like to play at an up-tempo pace. During their first 2 contests, Oklahoma averaged 86.5 points scored per game, shot 57.3%, and made 40.0% of its 3-point attempts. Despite shooting at such a high percentage, the Sooners still averaged a robust 62 field goal attempts per contest. Through East Carolina’s first 3 games they averaged 82.7 points scored and 67 field goal attempts per outing. This one has all the earmarks of an entertaining up and down high scoring game. Bet over the total for a Top Play wager.
|04-05-21||Baylor v. Gonzaga -4||Top||86-70||Loss||-115||10 h 58 m||Show|
Baylor vs. Gonzaga 9:20 PM ET
Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (10*)
College Basketball fans have been waiting for this matchup to take place all season and appropriately it occurs in the National Championship game. I cashed in easily with Baylor as a 10* Top Play on Saturday in their blowout win over Houston. I really like this Bears team, but Gonzaga can beat you in a vast assortment of ways. The Bulldogs are coming off their thrilling overtime win against a game and resilient UCLA team. It was the first time in 28 games that Gonzaga had not won a game by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs will be inspired by seeking their first ever national championship and after coming up short in the title game versus North Carolina in 2017. Additionally, Gonzaga will look to be the first team to finish undefeated and win a national championship since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Bulldogs had their scare against UCLA and now they’ll get back to their dominant self tonight. Bet on Gonzaga minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|04-03-21||Houston v. Baylor -5||Top||59-78||Win||100||23 h 8 m||Show|
Houston vs. Baylor 5:15 PM ET
Play On: Baylor -5.0 (10*)
Houston is the first team in NCAA Tournament history that has won 4 straight games against double-digit seeds. However, they were lucky to escape with a 3-point win over Rutgers and nearly squandered a 17-point halftime lead before winning by 6 versus #12 seed Oregon State in their previous game. On both occasions they failed to cover.
Conversely, Baylor is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 with wins coming over the likes of #8 seed Wisconsin, #5 seed Villanova, and #3 seed Arkansas and the average margin of victory was 11.0 points per game. They covered each of those 3 contests as a favorite and averaged just 6.2 turnovers committed per game. Furthermore, Baylor is #1 nationally in 3-point shooting at 41.1% and #3 in offensive efficiency by scoring 123.0 points per every 100 possessions this season. Not only has the top seeded Bears had a tougher slate than Houston during the “Big Dance”, they also played in a significantly stronger Big 12 Conference than the American Athletic where Houston competes. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-30-21||UCLA v. Michigan -6.5||Top||51-49||Loss||-110||7 h 33 m||Show|
UCLA vs. Michigan 9:55 PM ET
Play On: Michigan -6.5 (10*)
#1 seed Michigan (23-4/.852) takes on #11 seed UCLA (21-9/.700) in Tuesday’s NCAA Tournament East Regional Final. The Wolverines are coming off a 76-58 win over Florida State while covering with ease as a 2.0-point favorite. UCLA is coming off an overtime win over Alabama and did so as a 6.0-point underdog.
Since the 1990 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that’s a favorite of 10.0 or less who possesses a win percentage of .851 to .944, and is playing after Round 1, and they covered their previous game by 4.5-points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .771 or less and they are coming off an upset win, resulted in those top seeds going 12-0 ATS. The average line in those 12 contests was 8.8 and those #1 seeds won by a substantial average of 19.8 points per game. Bet on Michigan minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-29-21||Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5||Top||72-81||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
Arkansas vs. Baylor 9:57 PM ET
Play On: Baylor -7.5 (10*)
Baylor is coming off a 62-51 win over Villanova and covered as a 7.5-point favorite. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Baylor has gone an extremely profitable 12-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 55 points or fewer and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game. Furthermore, Arkansas averages a robust 65 field goal attempts per game this season which translates to playing at a lightning-fast tempo. However, Baylor is 9-1 ATS during the past 3 seasons versus opponents averaging 62 or more field goal attempts per game and outscored those team by a decisive margin of 20.0 points per contest. Simply put, attempting to play up tempo basketball plays right into the Bears hands.
Arkansas barely escaped with a 72-70 win over #15 seed Oral Roberts in their previous game while failing to cover as an 11.0-point favorite. Any NCAA Tournament favorite of 9.0 or less that’s playing after Round 1, and they’re coming off an ATS cover as a favorite, versus an opponent (Arkansas) coming off game in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and that opponent has a win percentage of .687 or better, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS since 2012. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests was 17.7 points per game. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-28-21||UCLA v. Alabama -6.5||Top||88-78||Loss||-110||30 h 47 m||Show|
UCLA @ Alabama 7:15 PM ET
Play On: Alabama -6.5 (10*)
History isn’t on the side of UCLA in this contest. Since the NCAA Tournament Play-In Round was established in 2015, no team has advanced from that round to a Regional Final. As a matter of fact, the only other team to even reach the Sweet 16 was Syracuse in 2018. The Bruins have been beneficiaries of a favorable draw in their NCAA Tournament wins while defeating #11 seed Michigan State, #6 seed BYU, and #14 seed Abilene Christian. They will be facing a whole other level of competition on Sunday when they square off against #2 seed Alabama.
Alabama enters this Sweet 16 contest having won their last 8 and 22 of its previous 25 games. The Crimson Tide had a combined +37 rebounding advantage in the first 2 rounds versus Iona and Maryland. Alabama has the lethal combination of being a good 3-point shooting team and they defend the 3-point line extremely well (28.9%). The Crimson Tide has allowed their last 5 opponents to average a mere 11 free throw attempts per game.
Alabama enters this contest with a season record of 26-6 (.813). The Crimson Tide is coming off an impressive 96-77 win over Maryland in a game they easily covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They will be facing a UCLA team with a season record of 20-9 (.690). The combination of this data sets up an NCAA Tournament betting angle which has remained perfect since 2002 and is shown below.
Any Sweet 16 favorite of 3.5 or more that’s a #2 seed (Alabama), and they possess a win percentage of .806 to .870, and they’re coming off an ATS win as a favorite in which they scored 68 points or greater, versus an opponent (UCLA) with a win percentage of .685 or better, resulted in those #2 seeds going 12-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests came by 13.5 points per game. Bet on Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-27-21||Villanova v. Baylor -7||Top||51-62||Win||100||22 h 23 m||Show|
Villanova vs. Baylor 5:15 PM ET
Play On: Baylor -7.0 (10*)
Villanova entered the NCAA Tournament having lost 3 of their last 4 games. That funk coincided with them losing senior starting point guard Conor Gillaspie to a season ending knee injury during a 73-61 loss at Butler on 2/28. The Wildcats also had favorable matchups in the first 2 rounds against #12 seed Winthrop and #13 seed North Texas.
Villanova will be facing a much different animal on Saturday in #1 seed Baylor (24-2). The Bears began the season 18-0 before COVID protocols shut them down for 23 days. When returning they were unimpressive in their first 2 games before gradually returning to form. Anything short of a national championship with this loaded roster would be considered a failure in Waco. This team seems to be more than capable of living up to those expectations and Saturday will be a statement game for them in that regard.
Since the 1993 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed playing in a “Sweet 16” game that’s favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, coming off a favorite ATS cover, and they’re facing a #5 seed or higher with a win percentage of .687 or better, and that underdog is coming off ATS covers in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those #1 seeds going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was by a decisive 14.9 points per game. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-22-21||Maryland v. Alabama -5.5||Top||77-96||Win||100||25 h 49 m||Show|
Maryland vs. Alabama 8:45 PM ET
Play On: Alabama -5.5 (10*)
Alabama is coming off a 68-55 win over Iona on Saturday but failed to cover as a 16.5-point favorite. Maryland was a 63-54 winner on Saturday over Connecticut and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. This sets up an NCAA Tournament against-the-spread betting angle that has remained unbeaten since 1990 and is displayed below.
Any NCAA Tournament 2nd Round favorite of 15.0-points (Alabama) or less that’s coming off a double-digit win but failed to cover as a favorite of 15.0-points or greater, versus an opponent (Maryland) off a straight up underdog win by 5-points or more, resulted in those favorites going 18-0 ATS since 1990. Those 15 favorites won by a decisive margin of 17.9 points per game. Bet on Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-21-21||Wisconsin v. Baylor -6||Top||63-76||Win||100||22 h 34 m||Show|
Wisconsin vs. Baylor 2:40 PM ET
Play On: Baylor -6.0 (10*)
#1 seed Baylor is coming off an 85-62 win over Hartford in Round 1. That win improved their season record to 23-2 (.920). Wisconsin is coming off an 85-62 Round 1 blowout win over North Carolina in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. The Badgers enter this Round 2 matchup with a modest 15-9 (.600) season record. This data leads to a terrific NCAA Tournament betting angle which is displayed below.
Any NCAA Tourney #1 or #2 seed with a win percentage of .920 or less that’s playing in a 2nd round game, and they’re a favorite of 6.0 or greater, versus an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win by 12 points or more in the first round, and they have a win percentage of .812 or less, resulted in those top 2 seeds going 16-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1990. They outscored those 17 lower seeds by a substantial average of 19.8 points per game.
|03-20-21||Missouri -105 v. Oklahoma||Top||68-72||Loss||-105||7 h 51 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs. Missouri 7:25 PM ET
Play On: Missouri -105 (money line) (10*)
Both teams have struggled down the final stretch of regular season and conference tournament action. Something must give in that regard and I am extremely confident that Missouri is the lesser of 2 evils in this matchup. Oklahoma has gone 2-5 straight up in their last 7 games and failed to cover any of those contests. Furthermore, their only 2 wins during that stretch came over an Iowa State team which finished the season with an abysmal 2-22 record and that includes 0-18 in Big 12 action.
Missouri was eliminated in the SEC Tournament by way of a 6-point loss to #9 Arkansas. However, the Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 following a loss in their previous game. Bet on Missouri for a 10* Top Play money line wager.
|03-18-21||Drake -105 v. Wichita State||Top||53-52||Win||100||32 h 29 m||Show|
Drake vs. Wichita State 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Drake -105 (Money Line) (10*)
Wichita State was less than impressive during their conference tournament. They barely survived in quarterfinal round with a 1.0-point win over South Florida as an 11.5-point favorite. The following day they were upset by Cincinnati as a 5.5-point chalk. The Bearcats then preceded to get blown out 91-54 by Houston in the American Athletic Association Finals.
Drake (25-4) is coming off a 75-65 loss to #17 Loyola-Chicago in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss in their previous contest. They also defeated Loyola earlier this season. Bet on Drake for a 10* Top Play money line wager.
|03-13-21||Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4||Top||80-75||Loss||-115||7 h 56 m||Show|
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Florida State -4.0 (10*)
Florida State will have plenty of motivation after squandering a chance to with the ACC regular season title by being upset at Notre Dame in their final game. The Seminoles will also be out to avenge a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech the last times these teams squared off. Florida State won their only ACC Conference Tournament championship in 2012. They will be facing a Georgia Tech team on a 7-game win streak. However, the Yellowjackets only need to win 1 game to reach the ACC Finals after Virginia needed to bow out in their scheduled semifinal game due to COVID protocols. This is a textbook case of one team just being happy to be here (Georgia Tech) versus an opponent (Florida) which is very hungry to receive top billing. Bet on Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-12-21||Missouri v. Arkansas -5||Top||64-70||Win||100||5 h 11 m||Show|
Missouri vs. Arkansas 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Arkansas -5.0 (10*)
Missouri got off to a fast 13-3 start to the season and were ranked in the Top 25 for several weeks. However, since that time the Tigers lost 5 of its next 8 games leading up to today. The Tigers narrowly escaped in a 3-point win over Georgia yesterday. Missouri has gone 0-6 SU&ATS the over the past 2 seasons following a win by 3 points or fewer.
Arkansas comes into this SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup on a red-hot 8 games winning streak. The Razorbacks are also an extremely profitable 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite of 9.5 or less and they won by 15.3 points per game. Bet on Arkansas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-10-21||Duke -2 v. Louisville||Top||70-56||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
Duke vs. Louisville 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Duke -2.0 (10*)
If there was ever a trap play in this year’s conference tournament action, then this is it. Louisville is the higher seed with a better record and beat Duke twice already this season. Yet, they find themselves as the current underdog in this matchup. Taking the underdog would seem logical right? Not so fast my fellow sports bettors. It’s rarely ever that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. If it looks to good to be true, then more times than not it is.
Throughout their previous 10 games Duke has averaged 78.9 points scored per contest and shot 49.5% from the field. Conversely, Louisville shot a combined 39.3% during their previous 5 games played. This extremely young Blue Devils team makes a statement in this one. Bet on Duke for a 5* wager.
|03-07-21||Wisconsin v. Iowa -6.5||Top||73-77||Loss||-110||2 h 20 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Iowa 12:30 PM ET
Play On: Iowa -6.5 (10*)
#25 Wisconsin is 4-7 in their last 11 and that includes losing 4 of its previous 5 contests. Conversely, #5 Iowa has won 6 of its last 7 and covered in 5 of those contests. The lone blemish during that stretch was a loss at #2 Michigan. So clearly these are teams headed down opposite paths with one being a serious contender for a national title and the other a textbook pretender.
These teams met in Madison earlier this season and Iowa walked away with a convincing 77-62 win. The Hawkeyes are averaging a robust 80.4 points per game in Big 10 action while Wisconsin has scored fewer than 70 during each of their previous 7 outings. Furthermore, Iowa has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to less than 40% shooting. Bet on Iowa minus the points for a 5* wager.
|03-06-21||Duke v. North Carolina OVER 149.5||Top||73-91||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
Duke @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 149.5 (10*)
Duke has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 and 10-1 to the over during their previous 11 games. The Blue Devils have averaged 77.0 points scored per contest and shot a superb 49.3% throughout their previous 5 contests. Duke will be facing a North Carolina team that loves to play up tempo basketball and averages a lofty 62 field goal attempts per game this season. That’s significant since Duke has played 6-0 to the over this season when facing teams that average 62 or more field goal attempts per game, and there was a combined average of 162.7 points scored per contest.
According to Ken Pomeroy, North Carolina plays an extremely fast pace when facing fellow ACC teams. The Tar Heels have averaged a robust 71.0 offensive possessions per 40 minutes of play this season. They will be facing a Duke team that is 14th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils have averaged 115.2 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. Those types of analytics from team facing each other more times than not turn into a high scoring contest. Speaking of facing each other. The last 3 times these teams have met, each of those contests went over the total. The average combined score in those 3 games was 179.0. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play.
|03-05-21||Ball State v. Toledo OVER 154||Top||70-89||Win||100||5 h 56 m||Show|
Ball State @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 154.0 (5*)
The pace in this game should be conducive to a high scoring affair. Each team has seen their last 5 games average a combined total of 126 field goal attempts per contest which is high by college basketball standards. Additionally, both teams have recently been excellent from the free throw line with Ball State 84.9% of their attempts and Toledo 83.5%.
Ball State has witnessed each of their previous 4 games go over the total and there was an enormous 170.3 points scored per contest. During that stretch, the Cardinals averaged 91.5 points scored per game and shot a blistering hot 52.4%. They have also been deadly from beyond the 3-point line of late. Throughout their last 5 games, Ball State has converted on 39% of its 3-point shot attempts and averaged 10 makes per contest.
Toledo is ranked 13th out of 357 Division 1 teams in offensive efficiency. The Rockets have averaged 115.7 points scored per 100 offensive possession this season. They also rank #1 in that category when facing conference opponent while scoring 118.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. Toledo has played 3-0 to the over in their previous 3 games when there was a total of 150.0 to 159.5, and there was 165.3 points scored per contest. Lastly, the Rockets have averaged 83.6 points scored, shot 47.4%, made 39.2% of their 3-point attempts through their previous 5 games. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager.
|03-03-21||Creighton v. Villanova -4.5||Top||60-72||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
Creighton @ Villanova 8:30 PM ET
Play On: Villanova -4.5 (10*)
Villanova has a couple of things to atone for in this game and I am confident they will be more than up to the challenge. First, they’ll look to avenge an 86-70 loss at Creighton earlier this season. By the way, since the start of the 2014-2015 season, Villanova has gone a stellar 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS when playing with same season revenge. Secondly, the #10 Wildcats will look to bounce back from an embarrassing 73-61 upset loss as a 12.5-point road favorite versus Butler in their previous game. However, Villanova is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 11.5 or less and won by a decisive margin of 19.5 points per game. The Wildcats allowed Butler to shoot 50% in their previous game. Additionally, Villanova is 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better and they won by 18.3 points per contest. Bet on Villanova minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-28-21||Iowa v. Ohio State -3||Top||73-57||Loss||-110||5 h 29 m||Show|
Iowa @ Ohio State 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio State -3.0 (10*)
#4 Ohio State will be in a sour mood today after coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this season. The Buckeyes have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 4.0 to 17.0 points and with an average victory margin of 20.0 points per game. Ohio State is also 12-2 ATS since the start of the 2017-2018 season under current head coach Chris Holtmann as a conference home favorite of 6.0 or less. The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus Iowa and won by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Ohio State won 89-85 at Iowa earlier this season despite Iowa going 14-32 (43.7%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Bet on Ohio State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-27-21||Baylor v. Kansas +3.5||Top||58-71||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
Baylor @ Kansas 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Kansas +3.5 (10*)
Baylor (18-0) is a terrific team so let’s get that out of the way. However, it’s going to be extremely difficult for them to remain unbeaten going into the NCAA Tournament while playing in an extremely strong conference like the Big 12. The #2 ranked Bears are coming off a flat performance in a 5-point home win over a 2-17 Iowa State team. They closed as a massive 24.0-point favorite in that contest.
For starters, Kansas has gone a terrific 47-2 in their last 50 home games. That includes 11-1 this season with their lone defeat coming against #14 Texas. Since that Texas loss, Kansas has won 6 straight at home and covered on each of their last 4. The Jayhawks have improved dramatically on the defensive end as the season has progressed. As a matter of fact, over their previous 6 contests Kansas allowed 59.8 points per game and held opponents to a combined 35.4% shooting. The Jayhawks won 5 of those contests and their only defeat came in overtime at Texas. Furthermore, Kansas is 15-1 in their last 16 at home versus Baylor. Their only home loss to the Bears came last season. That should provide extra motivation and emotion for a program which prides itself on defending their home court. Bet on Kansas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-22-21||Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State +3.5||Top||69-74||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Oklahoma State +3.5 (10*)
Texas Tech is coming off back-to-back losses to West Virginia and Kansas. The #15 Red Raiders have now gone just 3-4 straight up in their last 7 games played. Texas Tech will be playing with revenge from an 82-77 home defeat to Oklahoma State on 1/2/21. However, I don’t think revenge will be a determining factor in this one.
Oklahoma State has gone 4-0 in their last 4 conference home games. Additionally, 3 of those victories came over nationally ranked teams in Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a home underdog versus a visiting team that isn’t performing like a Top 25 team right now. During their previous 5 games, Oklahoma State has held its opponents to a mere 36.9% shooting and that includes 24.3% from beyond the 3-point line. Bet on Oklahoma State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-20-21||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -7||Top||66-56||Loss||-107||7 h 31 m||Show|
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Ole Miss -7.0 (10*)
Ole Miss has played themselves into NCAA Tournament consideration by going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Included in this current successful run was home wins over #20 Missouri by 21 and versus #19 Tennessee. The Rebels have also averaged 82.3 points scored per game and shot a sizzling hot 52.2% during their previous 3 contests. On the other side of the table is Mississippi State who has gone a poor 2-6 in their previous 8 games and is coming off an embarrassing 72-51 home loss to Vanderbilt. These are 2 teams that are clearly headed on opposite paths. Bet on Ole Miss minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-15-21||Washington v. Washington State OVER 142.5||Top||65-63||Loss||-110||5 h 55 m||Show|
Washington @ Washington State 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 142.5 (10*)
Washington has played 6-0 to the over in true road games this season. Those 6 contests had an average total of 140.0 and there was a combined 161.7 points scored per contest. Washington State has gone over the total in each of their previous 4 contests and did so by an average of 9.5 points per game.
These teams met earlier this season and Washington State came away with a 77-62 road win. That contest barely went under the closing total of 140.0. However, both teams were terrible at the free throw line in that contest. They both combined to go just 27-45 (60%) from the charity stripe. That many free throw attempts will likely occur again this evening. But it’s highly probable these teams will convert at a much better percentage than they did in their earlier season matchup. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-14-21||Colgate v. Army OVER 150.5||Top||92-83||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
Colgate @ Army 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 150.5 (10*)
This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these Patriot League rivals. The first 3 all went over the total and there was a combined 154.7 points scored per game. The last of those meeting took place on Saturday and Colgate walked away with an 84-74 win and that contest sailed over the total of 147.0. The pace of that game was quite brisk as the teams combined for 125 field goal attempts. Colgate is 8-1 in conference play while scoring 86.2 points per game and has outscored those 9 opponents by an average of 20.1 points per game. Since the start of last season, Army has played 8-1 to the over when facing teams who are outscoring their opponents by 4.0 or more points per game. Those 9 contests averaged a combined 155.0 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager.
|02-12-21||Detroit v. Cleveland State OVER 138||Top||89-83||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
Detroit @ Cleveland State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 138.0 (10*)
Cleveland State has seen each of their previous 5 games go over the total. The average total in those contests was 137.6 and there was a combined 150.2 point scored per game. Detroit has been red-hot offensively during their previous 5 while averaging 80.4 points scored per game, shooting 51.8% from the field, and making a superb 43.0% of its 3-point shot attempts. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-11-21||Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner OVER 142||Top||72-76||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
Farleigh-Dickinson @ Wagner 5:00 ET
Play On: Over 142.0 (10*)
Wagner has seen each of their previous 5 games go over the total. The average combined score in those 5 contests was 154.0 points per game. It’s worth noting, FDU has witnessed their last 5 contests having a total of 150.5 or greater. During their previous 5 games, FDU has scored a robust 82.6 points per contest and shot an impressive 48% from the field. Both teams are physical and there will most likely be many free throw attempts in today’s game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-06-21||Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5||Top||60-75||Win||100||3 h 26 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Illinois 2:30 PM ET
Play On: Illinois -3.5 (10*)
This will be a statement game for #12 Illinois against a #19 ranked conference opponent in Wisconsin. The Illini are much better than even their 12-5 overall record indicates. According to the highly respected Kenpom rankings that accounts for offensive and defensive efficiency in addition to strength of schedule, Illinois ranks #5 nationally. They also have Illinois as having faced the 4th most difficult schedule of all the 347 Division 1 teams. Illinois is coming off a 75-71 overtime win at Indiana in their previous game which extended their unbeaten streak to a modest 3-games. Conversely, Wisconsin has gone a mediocre 4-3 in their last 7 games which includes a pair of losses on their usually extremely strong home court. Bet on Illinois minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|02-04-21||Minnesota v. Rutgers -5.5||Top||72-76||Loss||-105||10 h 54 m||Show|
Minnesota @ Rutgers 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Rutgers -5.5 (10*)
Minnesota has been exceptionally good at home this season having beaten 4 Top 25 teams along the way. However, on the road has been a whole different story for the Golden Gophers. They have gone 0-5 SU&ATS in true road games and lost by a substantial average of 19.6 points per contest. Throughout their previous 5 games overall, Minnesota has been inept offensively while averaging just 62.8 points scored per contest and shooting an awful 36.8% from the floor. During that identical stretch, they were also at a terrible -8 rebound per game differential while going 1-4 SU&ATS.
Rutgers spent the early part of this season ranked in the Top 25. They then went through a rough patch and found themselves on the outside looking in. Nevertheless, they have bounced back to go 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. After going an outstanding 15-1 at home a season ago, Rutgers has lost 3 home games this season. It must be noted, those 3 losses came at the hands of #19 Wisconsin, #7 Ohio State, and #8 Iowa. I look for a huge effort for the Scarlet Knights that will result in a comfortable win and cover. Bet on Rutgers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-29-21||Boise State -2.5 v. Colorado State||Top||85-77||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
Boise State @ Colorado State 11:00 PM ET
Play On: Boise State -2.5 (10*)
These teams met on Wednesday night and Colorado state walked away with a convincing 78-56 win. Yet here we are 2 days later, and Boise State is a short favorite despite that blowout loss. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the home underdog in this spot. Nonetheless, I am not being lured in and bet against not only the oddsmakers but public perception.
That previously mentioned Boise State loss ended a 12-game Broncos winning streak. It was also just a 2nd time in 14 games that Boise had scored less than 70 points. Since the start of the 2018-2019 college basketball season, Boise State is an extremely profitable 8-1 ATS following a game in which they scored 70 or fewer, and they outscored those 9 opponents by an average of 11.8 points per contest. Bet on Boise State for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-23-21||UCLA v. Stanford OVER 138.5||Top||72-73||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
UCLA @ Stanford 5:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 138.5 (10*)
Stanford has seen their last 5 games all go over the total and there was a combined average of 147.6 points scored per contest. The Cardinal have also seen all 3 conference home games go over with a combined average of 151.3 points scored per game. During those contests Stanford averaged 81.3 points scored per game and shot a sizzling hot 51.1% from the field.
UCLA has witnessed 4 of their last 5 going over the total and there was a combined average of 148.0 points scored per game. During that stretch, the Bruins averaged 79.0 points scored per contest while converting on an extremely impressive 45.1% of their 3-point shots and 77.7% of its free throws. UCLA and Stanford have seen 8 of their last 9 games played against one another go over the total. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-21-21||Utah v. Washington State +3||Top||71-56||Loss||-108||6 h 35 m||Show|
Utah @ Washington State 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Washington State +3.0 (10*)
Public perception would indicate that bettors are betting this game based on Utah being a traditional winning team and Washington State the opposite. Nevertheless, Washington State has gone 8-1 at home this season and their only loss came by 4 to Arizona in a game they covered as an 8.0-point underdog. Utah has lost 5 of their last 6 and that includes going 0-3 SU&ATS during away games. Furthermore, Utah is coming off a 72-63 home loss to California in a game they closed as a sizable 12.0-point favorite. That was a Cal team that entered that contest with a dismal 1-7 conference record. Since the start of last season, the Utes are a dismal 0-8 ATS on the road following a conference loss and were outscored by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Bet on Washington State plus the points for a 10* wager.
|01-19-21||Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 141||Top||64-83||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
Colorado State @ Utah State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 141.0 (10*)
Colorado State has been red-hot offensively over their previous 3 contests while averaging 87.0 points scored per game and shooting 53.5%. The Rams are 7-1 in Mountain West Conference play and they’re shooting a strong 48.1% during those contests in addition to a sizzling hot 41.0% from beyond the 3-point line. Conversely, Utah State is 8-0 in conference action and has averaged 78.4 points scored per contest and is making a stellar 48.1% of its field goal attempts. To borrow a boxing adage, styles make fights, and this one involves two excellent shooting teams that have shown a consistent ability to score in the high 70’s and 80’s this season. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-18-21||Kansas v. Baylor -8.5||Top||69-77||Loss||-105||10 h 59 m||Show|
Kansas @ Baylor 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Baylor -8.5 (10*)
I am labeling this as the sucker game of the night. We have the #6 Kansas Jayhawks as a sizable underdog against #2 Baylor. Then there’s the reputation and brand of Kansas basketball that will surely entice public betting to side with them at this heavy a number. However, we must look inside the numbers to get a clearer picture. Kansas is coming off a 75-70 loss at unranked Oklahoma State. They were also hammered at home by 25 versus Texas. Additionally, 5 of the Jayhawks 10 wins have come by 4 points or fewer.
Baylor is 12-0 and has covered in 10 of those 12 contests. They are coming off a 68-60 win at Texas Tech in a game they covered as a 4.5-point favorite. It marked the first time this season that Baylor failed to win by a double-digit margin. As a matter of fact, Baylor has outscored their 12 opponents this season by an average of 26.1 points per game. The Bears are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games which all were against Big 12 Conference opponents, and they held those teams to 56.7 points per contest and an abysmal 35.1% shooting. Baylor has also forced 20 turnovers of more in the 3 of their last 4 and 5 of its previous 7 games which speaks to their superb length and athleticism on the defensive end. Baylor has made a terrific 42.3% of its 3-point shot attempts this season. Conversely, during their previous 5 games Kansas opponents have shot a combined 39.4% from beyond the 3-point line. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-14-21||San Diego State v. Utah State -1.5||Top||45-57||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
San Diego State @ Utah State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Utah State -1.5 (10*)
Utah State began the season by losing 3 of its first 4 games. Since that time, they have reeled off 8 wins in a row and won by an enormous 29.9 points per game. That includes 6-0 SU&ATS in Mountain West Conference action. During those conference games they held opponents to 49.8 scored per contest and a miserable 32.2% shooting.
The Aggies have been a favorite of 11.5 or greater all 6 of their conference wins and covers. San Diego State is coming off a 69-67 win over Nevada in a game they failed to cover as a 10.5-point favorite. This sets up a very profitable college basketball betting angle shown below.
Any home team that is coming off 3 consecutive covers as a favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they are facing an opponent (San Diego State) that is coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, resulted in those home teams going 34-4 (89.5%) straight up since 1997, and the home teams outscored the visitors in those 38 contests by 15.7 points per game. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering what the current point-spread is. Bet on Utah State for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-13-21||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -6.5||Top||56-55||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Mississippi State -6.5 (10*)
Texas A&M is a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in neutral site or away games. They were blown out in all 3 of those contests by an average of 21.7 points per game.
Mississippi State has been a somewhat overlooked team thus far. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games this season as a favorite. They are also off to a 3-1 start in SEC action and made a terrific 43.6% of its 3-point shot attempts while doing so. Bet on Mississippi State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-12-21||Wisconsin v. Michigan -3.5||Top||54-77||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Michigan 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Michigan -3.5 (10*)
Michigan is a perfect 10-0 and that includes 5-0 in Big 10 Action. They covered in 4 of those 5 conference wins and had a decisive victory margin of 14.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, 9 of 10 wins recorded by Michigan this season have come by 10 points or more, and they shot 50% or better in 7 of those 10 games. Michigan is coming off an 84-59 home blowout win over Minnesota in their previous game. The Wolverines are 7-0 SU&ATS at home since the 2018-2019 season following a conference win by 10 points or more, and they won by a substantial average of 17.7 points per game.
The #9 Wisconsin Badgers are a solid team. However, they are just 1-1 in true road games, and their loss came as a 4.5-point favorite versus an average at best Marquette team. Bet on Michigan minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-09-21||USC -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||73-64||Win||100||22 h 43 m||Show|
USC @ Arizona State 7:00 PM ET
Play On: USC -2.5 (10*)
USC has shot the ball extremely well in their last 2 games which resulted in comfortable wins over Utah and at Arizona. The Trojans are one of the best defensive teams in the country while allowing just 62.5 points per game and limiting them to a mere 35.4% shooting from the field.
There were high expectations to start the season for Arizona State. However, they’re 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 home games and lost by an average of 10.7 points per contest. Bet on USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-31-20||Utah v. UCLA -7||Top||70-72||Loss||-100||8 h 4 m||Show|
Utah @ UCLA 7:00 PM ET
Play On: UCLA -7.0 (10*)
This is a veteran UCLA team that returned all 5 starters from a season ago. Their only 2 losses this season came versus #25 Ohio State 77-70 at a neutral site and at San Diego State in its season opener. The Bruins are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS on their home floor this season and won by an average of 20.5 points per game. UCLA will have a huge rebounding edge in this contest based on the fact they are +7 per game in that department while Utah is at a -6. This will be just the 2nd road game of the season for Utah. In their only other away contest, they were blown out 82-64 at BYU. Bet on UCLA minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-22-20||West Virginia +2 v. Kansas||Top||65-79||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
West Virginia @ Kansas 9:00 PM ET
Play On: West Virginia +2.0 (10*)
This current point-spread tells me everything I need to know. It’s extremely rare when Kansas is this short of a favorite on their home floor. The Jayhawks are 7-1 but 4 of their wins have come by a combined 9 points and none of those opponents are as good as West Virginia. These teams have something in common with both suffering their only loss of the season to #1 Gonzaga. West Virginia was defeated by the Bulldogs 87-82 while Kansas lost 102-90. Bet on West Virginia for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-21-20||Southern Illinois +9 v. Butler||Top||76-73||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
Southern Illinois @ Butler 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Southern Illinois +9.0 (10*)
Butler is coming off a loss by 8 to Indiana on Saturday. This isn’t one of the vintage Butler teams we have seen in years past. That’s not to imply they are horrible by any means. However, all you need to look at is their defensive statistics that indicates opponents are shooting 49.7% against them and is making an alarmingly high 45.6% of their 3-point attempts. Butler is only making 59.7% of their free throws thus far, and that must be considered if their opponent is trying to extend a game when playing from behind.
Southern Illinois hasn’t played nearly as tough a schedule to this point compared to Butler. Nevertheless, the Salukis are 5-0 while putting up some impressive offensive statistics while doing so. They have shot 49.6% including 43.6% from 3-point territory and have converted on an excellent 78.5% of their free throws. Bet on Southern Illinois plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-17-20||Kansas v. Texas Tech -3||Top||58-57||Loss||-110||9 h 36 m||Show|
Kansas @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech -3.0 (10*)
Kansas is # 5 in the country but in my humble opinion is getting more respect for their brand than the worthiness of their ranking for this current Jayhawks team. Yes, their only loss has come against #1 Gonzaga by 12 in their season opener. However, they also only defeated North Dakota State by 4 as a 24.0-point home favorite, beat a Kentucky team that is currently on a 4-game losing streak by just 3, and escaped with a 1-point home win over #9 Creighton. This will be the Jayhawks first true road game of the season.
Texas Tech is 6-1 and their lone defeat came against #6 Houston on a neutral floor. The Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 straight up at home and covered 4 of those contests while winning by a decisive margin of 31.4 points per game. Texas Tech is also an excellent defensive team that is allowing only 51.6 points per game and has held its opponents to a mere 35.5% shooting. Bet on Texas Tech minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-16-20||Mercer +4.5 v. Georgia State||Top||81-88||Loss||-108||4 h 2 m||Show|
Mercer @ Georgia State 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Mercer +4.5 (10*)
These teams met once already this season and Mercer came away with a convincing 86-69 win as a 3.0-point home underdog. Mercer outrebounded Georgia State 51-31 while also hauling in 15 offensive rebounds. They also held the visiting Panthers to a dismal 36.8% shooting and forced an alarmingly high 19 turnovers. Mercer also owns an impressive 10 points road win over Georgia Tech in a game they were a substantial 12.0-point underdog. There’s nothing apparent to me to suggest that Georgia State will be able to turn the tables on Mercer this time around. Bet on 6-0 Mercer plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-12-20||Utah +2 v. BYU||Top||64-82||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
Utah @ BYU 6:00 PM ET
Play On: Utah +2.0 (10*)
BYU opened the season with 3 straight wins, and all were against less than stellar competition. Since that time, they went 2-2 while stepping up in class considerably. They were blown out on a neutral court by USC by 26 points. They also lost at home in their previous game played versus Boise State.
Utah is an experienced team that is off to a 2-0 start. They have looked solid in those wins over Washington by 13 and Idaho State by 16. They held those 2 opponents to just 35.9% from the floor and a mere 21.2% from 3-point range. Additionally, those opponents averaged just 11 free throw attempts per game. The Utes also converted on 40% of their 3-point shots in those contests. Play on Utah plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-04-20||Wisconsin v. Marquette +5||Top||65-67||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Marquette 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Marquette +5.0 (10*)
This series has been about as even as you can get in recent years with each team winning 8 times since 2004. Marquette will be smarting after an 8-point home loss to Oklahoma State in their previous outing. Marquette has gone 45-3 straight up in their last 48 non-conference home games following a loss. Wisconsin is 3-0 but all those contests were played on their home floor and came against weak competition. There has been one common opponent for these teams and that was Eastern Illinois. Wisconsin defeated them by 10 in their season opener while Marquette won by a decisive 25-point margin.
|11-28-20||Idaho State v. UC-Davis UNDER 144||Top||61-70||Win||100||5 h 37 m||Show|
Idaho State vs. UC-Davis 4:00 PM T
Play On: Under 144.0 (10*)
My personal numbers that I use on this contest indicates the total should be 136.0 That’s a sizable 8.0-points below the current total which from my experiences in using these calculations is significant.
Idaho State has gone under in their first 2 games and there was only a combined average of 116.0 points scored per game. They were key contributors to those low scoring affairs due to playing at snail’s pace offensively which has seen them average just 44 field goal attempts per contest. Even more compelling is they shot a horrible 34.8% while doing so and made a subpar 64.1% of their free throws.
Any neutral court team (UC-Davis) with a total of (140.0 to 149.5) that had a win percentage of .400 to .490 in the previous season, versus a team that had a losing record during the season before, resulted in those games going 71-28 (71.7%) under since 1997. The average total in those 99 contests was 144.6 and there were a combined 137.4 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-27-20||Eastern Illinois v. Marquette UNDER 150.5||Top||50-75||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
Eastern Illinois @ Marquette 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Under 150.5 (10*)
Although the tempo is in this game will not be anywhere near a snail’s pace, it also won’t be far from blazingly fast. When crunching my numbers, I came up with a total of 142.0 on this game which is well below the current number. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager
|11-25-20||UCLA v. San Diego State +3||Top||58-73||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
UCLA @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET
Play On: San Diego State +3.0 (10*)
My preseason power ratings indicate that San Diego State should be a 4.5-point favorite in this game instead of a 3.0-point underdog. That is a huge 7.5-point overlay that favors the home underdog Aztecs. UCLA is an experienced team that returns all 5 starters and is #22 in the college basketball preseason poll. However, it is extremely difficult for opponents to win at Viejas Arena in San Diego. How difficult is it? Since the start of the 2008-2009 season, San Diego State has gone 174-24 (.879) straight up at home. That lends itself well to home underdog betting value in this spot. Bet on San Diego State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-11-20||North Carolina v. Syracuse +3||Top||53-81||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
Syracuse vs. North Carolina 9:30 PM ET
Play On: Syracuse +3.0 (10*)
This will be like a home game for Tar Heels while playing in Greensboro, North Carolina. Ironically enough, one of the biggest detractors for playing the ACC Tournament in Greensboro is Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim. Afterall, 4 of the 15 ACC schools located in North Carolina. In any event, Syracuse has enjoyed some success in conference road games this season by going 6-4 in that role. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 losses came by 4 points or fewer. The Orange will also be out avenge a 92-79 home loss to North Carolina. Syracuse has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS this season when facing a conference opponent for a second time. Syracuse is also an extremely profitable 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 4.0 or less and won 3 of those contests straight up. Conversely, North Carolina is an awful 1-5 AU&ATS this season as a fvorite of 4.0 or less. Bet on Syracuse plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|03-02-20||NC State v. Duke -12||Top||69-88||Win||100||5 h 4 m||Show|
NC State @ Duke 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Duke -12.0 (10*)
Duke will be in a sour mood after losing 3 of 4 and each of its last 2 and falling out of the Top 10 for a first time this season. As a matter of fact, one of those defeats was an 88-66 drubbing at NC State 3 weeks ago to the day. That was by far its worst loss of the season and they’ll be playing with big time revenge as a result.
The Blue Devils most recent defeat was 52-50 at Virginia on Saturday in a game they shot just 30.5%. That game stayed way under the total of 123.5. However, Duke is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or more and after going under in their previous game. Those results include 3-0 ATS versus ACC opponents and they won by an enormous average of 34.0 points per game. Duke is also 4-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or greater following a contest in which they shot worse than 40% and the Blue Devils won by 30.7 points per game. Bet on Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-29-20||Southern Illinois v. Missouri State -6.5||Top||59-84||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Missouri State -6.5 (10*)
Missouri State has vastly underachieved this season after being the preseason consensus pick to win the Missouri Valley Conference. Additionally, they’re coming off an 89-74 loss at Valparaiso in their previous outing. However, Missouri State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS during its last 3 following a loss and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. During each of those 3 contests Missouri State just happened to be a home favorite like they’ll be today. Conversely, Southern Illinois has gone a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 6.5 or greater and lost by a substantial 15.0 points per contest. Bet on Missouri State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.