Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog.

NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Heat @ Nuggets 8:00 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Heat +8.5 (5*)

The Heat barely missed covering in Game 1 despite attempting only 2 free throws and shooting a miserable 40.6% from the field. Miami amassed 96 field goal attempts in that opening game loss and that’s significant. The Heat are 11-1 SU this season after attempting 93 or more field goal attempts during regulation time in their previous game. That improves to 6-0 SU if they lost that previous game, and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 8.5 points per contest. Those SU results take on added betting value when considering Miami is currently an 8.5-point underdog in Game 2. Furthermore, Miami has gone 4-0 SU in their last 4 this postseason following a game in which they shot 45.7% or worse. As a matter of fact, they shot a red-hot 52.7% in those 4 wins. Miami was just 13-39 from 3-point territory in Game 1. Nevertheless, they finished that contest 7-15 from beyond the 3-point line after starting the contest 6-24.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals.

Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Celtics -8.0 (5*)

The Celtics staved off elimination with an impressive blowout win at Miami in Game 4. NBA Playoffs home favorites of -6.0 to -12.5 like Boston that are down 3-1 in their current series, resulted in those home favorites going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU since the 2009 postseason. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. The only non-cover came on 4/30/2013 when Denver was a 7.5-point home favorite and they won by 7 versus Golden State.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Celtics +2.0 (5*)

Boston has lost the first 3 games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Since the start of the 2020-2021 NBA season, Boston has gone 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS immediately following 3 straight losses. Putting those results into perspective, the Celtics have lost 4 games in a row just once over the previous 3 seasons. Furthermore, since 11/28/2021, Boston is an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS on the road in contests like today in which they scored 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games. Boston had an average point-spread of -1.1 in those 6 contests and won by an average of 14.8 points per game.

Miami is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this season immediately following 2 straight wins in which they allowed 105 points or fewer. That includes 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that identical situation.

Give me the Boston Celtics plus the small number.

Nuggets @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On:  Lakers -5.5 (5*)

The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in these Playoffs, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 on the road.

The Lakers will be playing with plenty of desperation and urgency at home tonight after losing the first 2 games of this Western Conference Final at Denver. It’s worth noting, the Lakers are 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with a substantial average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, dating back to the regular season, the Lakers will enter today on a 9-game home win streak.

Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, any home favorite of 4.5 to 8.5-points that’s down 2-0 in the series, and they’re facing an opponent that’s anywhere from a #1 through #4 seed, resulted in those home favorites withing that specific point-spread parameter going 22-5 ATS (81.5%). If those home teams were facing a #1 seed, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS during that exact time span, and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Give me the Lakers minus the points.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 537-538

Play On: Celtics -8.5 (5*)

Boston is coming off a disappointing 123-116 home loss to Miami in game they closed as a 8.5-point favorite. Recent NBA Playoff betting history shows that teams like Boston coming off a Game 1 loss as a sizable home favorite doing very well as a similar sized chalk in Game 2. Additionally, the Celtics are an extremely profitable 9-1 SU&ATS in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous contest.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points that’s coming off an upset loss as a home favorite in which they scored 105 points or more, resulted in those home teams going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since the 2019 NBA Postseason. The average line for those home favorites was -6.8 and they won by an enormous 23.5 points per game.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus points.

Lakers @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Lakers +5.5 (5*)

The Lakers have been terrific in recent times while going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss. As a matter of fact, they’re 4-0 SU&ATS during these 2023 NBA Postseason following a loss and won by a massive 25.3 points per game. Furthermore, the Lakers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an away underdog of 8.5 or less following a loss with an average victory margin of 10.1 points per game.

Give me the Lakers plus the points.

76ers @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET

Game# 509-510

Play On: Celtics -6.5 (10*)

The Celtics are coming off a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force these deciding 7th game. NBA Playoffs Game 7 betting history over the past 20 years indicates teams like Boston in this exact situation haven’t failed to cover on each occasion.

NBA Game 7 home favorites of 4.5 or greater like Boston that are coming off a Game 6 road win by 6-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 NBA Playoffs. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a massive average of 18.9 points per game.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*)

Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less.

The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game.

Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*)

Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game.

NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010.

Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points.

Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*)

The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game.

Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play.

Suns @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 547-548

Play On: Nuggets -5.5 (5*)

Phoenix has gone 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 as an away underdog. The average line in those 7 contests was 4.7 and they lost by 10.9 points per game. Phoenix is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following wins in their previous 2 contests and they lost by an average of 13.7 points per game.

Denver is 39-7 SU and 28-17-1 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by 10.2 points per game. That includes 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during the 2023 NBA Playoffs and with an average victory margin of 13.8 points per game.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points.

76ers @ Celtics 7:30 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*)

The Celtics are coming off a heartbreaking 116-115 loss to Philadelphia in Game 4. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch and especially so of late. Boston is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 immediately following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 19.7 points per game. Conversely, Philadelphia has gone 0-4 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a home win and lost by 14.0 points per game. I’m predicting the Celtics will make a huge statement tonight on their home floor.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus points.

Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Warriors +3.0 (5*)

Golden State is coming off an embarrassing 127-100 road loss in Game 3. However, the Warriors are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 during these playoffs following a loss and won by 21.3 points per game. Since the 2017 postseason, Golden State is 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 1.5 or greater following a playoff loss and won by 11.7 points per game. Considering their vast playoff experiences and successes, I expect Golden State to respond in a big way this evening.

NBA Playoffs Game 4 away pick or underdog of 8.0 or less that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0 points or more, resulted in those teams going 6-0 SU&ATS since the 2005 NBA Postseason. Those teams’ average point-spread was +4.2 and they won by an average of 13.3 points per game.

Give me Golden State plus points.

Nuggets @ Suns 8:00 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (5*)

Denver is coming off a disappointing Game 3 loss at Phoenix but still holds a 2-1 series lead. Any NBA Playoffs team that’s ahead in a series like Denver versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a season win percentage of .450 to .550 has gone 46-12 (79.35) since the 2019 postseason, and they outscored those opponents by an average of 9.7 points per contest. The SU results take on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup.

Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points.

Celtics @ 76ers 3:30 PM ET

Game# 537-538

Play On: 76ers +2.5 (5*)

After winning Game 1 in Boston, the 76ers have lost the last 2 in this series to fall behind 2-1. The 76ers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season and they outscored those opponents by 11.2 points per game. Philadelphia lost Game 3 at home 114-102. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 8-0 SU immediately following a home SU loss by 11-points or more and they outscored those opponents by 9.9 points per game. The 76ers certainly don’t want to return to Boston down 3-1 in the series. So, desperation and urgency with a quality team like Philadelphia will be a key component in us covering this contest.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 4 home underdog of 4.5 or less like Philadelphia that down 2-1 in the series and is coming off losses in the last 2 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-1 SU&ATS since 2008. Furthermore, if those home underdogs lost the previous game by 15 points or fewer, they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 14.8 points per game.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points.

Warriors @ Lakers 8:30 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Lakers -3.5 (5*)

Golden State’s inexplicable struggles on the road (13-32 SU/15-30-2 ATS) this season have been well documented. They went 0-2 SU&ATS in their 2 road games versus the Lakers and were held to a poor 38.8% shooting from the floor.

The oddsmakers were undeterred by the Warriors 127-100 blowout home win in Game 2 which evened the series at 1-1. The Lakers opened as a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 3 but they’ve since moved to -3.5. The Lakers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home during this 2023 postseason and won by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Lakers are also 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game.

Give me the Lakers minus points.

Knicks @ Miami 3:30 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Knicks +4.0 (5*)

The Miami Heat’s injury list is starting to resemble a mash unit. This is a spot where those key missing pieces or even playing injured players finally begins to catch up with them. The Heat’s Game 2 loss at New York halted a 4-game win streak. Miami has gone a dismal 3-11 SU this season after winning 4 of their last 5 games.

The Knicks are coming off a 6-point home win in Game 2 to even this series up at 1-1. During the first 2 games of the series, New York had a combined +25 rebounding advantage. The Knicks defense has been terrific during the playoffs while allowing just 97.8 points per game. New York has gone a more than respectable 26-18 SU and 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) on the road this season. Furthermore, the Knicks are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season as an away underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a SU win by 6-points or more. Lastly, New York 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a conference underdog of 4.0 or less and immediately following a home SU win.  Their average point-spread in those 7 contests was +3.4 and they won by an average of 10.7 points per game.

Give me the New York Knicks plus the points.

Lakers @ Warriors 9:00 ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Warriors -6.0 (5*)

Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Lakers 117-112 in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. However, Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home immediately following a SU loss.

Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 1.5 to 9.0 (Golden State) has gone 26-2 ATS (92.9%) since 2021. That also includes 18-0 SU&ATS the last 18 times this exact situation has come up. The average line for the favorites in those 18 contests was -6.4 and they outscored the underdogs by an average of 17.2 points per game.

Give me Golden State minus points.

76ers @ Celtics 8:00 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Celtics -7.5 (5*)

I’m looking for this to be a monumental bounce back spot for Boston after losing Game 1 at home 119-115. The Celtics lost that contest despite shooting 58% from the field and being +10 on the boards. Nonetheless, Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 16.8 points per game.

Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs, Game 2 home teams like Boston are 35-5 SU (.875) and 33-7 ATS (83%). If those home teams were a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, then they improved to 22-4 ATS (85%) during that identical span of time.

Give me the Celtics minus the points.

Suns @ Nuggets 10:05 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Nuggets -4.0 (5*)

Denver is coming off a convincing 125-107 home win over Phoenix in Game 1 and they easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite. That now makes the Nuggets 38-7 SU and 24-17-1 ATS at home this season.

Since the 2021 NBA Playoffs began, any NBA postseason favorite of -3.5 to 9.0 in Game 2 of a series like Denver, resulted in those favorites going an extremely profitable 20-2 ATS (90.9%). The average line during those 22 contests was -6.3 and the favorite outscored the underdogs by 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points.

Miami @ New York 1:00 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: New York -4.0 (5*)

The #8 seed Miami Heat shocked the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games to advance. Despite losing 2 key players in that series to injuries in Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, Miami was able to prevail mostly due in part to Jimmy Butler’s super-human effort in the series which saw him average 37.6 points per game, and the defensive ineptitude displayed by Milwaukee who allowed the Heat to average 124.0 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 51.9%. Miami won’t find it quite as easy on the offensive end versus a New York team which held Cleveland to 97 points or fewer in 4 of 5 games during their East Conference Quarterfinal series win. As a matter of fact, the Knicks were 2-0 at home versus Miami this season and held the Heat to a mere 98.0 points per game.

Give me New York minus points.

Grizzlies @ Lakers 10:30 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Lakers -4.5 (5*)

Memphis is coming off an impressive 116-99 home win in Game 5 to stay alive and cut their series deficit to 3-2. However, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 12.4 points per game. Conversely, the Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following a loss in their previous contest. Put that Lakers run of resiliency into perspective, they’ve only lost 2 straight games just once since 2/9/2022 (78-days). Counting the postseason, the Lakers are 4-0 SU&ATS at home versus Memphis during this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 42% or worse shooting in all 4 of those home wins and that includes 39% or less in each of the previous 3 meetings.

Give me the Lakers minus points.

Celtics @ Hawks 8:30 PM ET

Game# 537-538

Play On: Celtics -6.5 (5*)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Boston is 4-0 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 5.0 or greater following a home loss in their previous game and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. The current total on this contest is 231.0, and Boston is 5-0 SU&ATS this season during away games that have a total of 230.0 or greater and won by a massive 22.4 points per game. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 this season following a win.

Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, round 1 Game 6 away favorites like Boston have gone an extremely profitable 13-1 SU&ATS. Furthermore, if those away favorites were coming off a SU loss in Game 5, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS with a decisive average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Additionally, teams like Boston that are playing as an away favorite of 2.0 to 8.0-points in Game 6 of a playoffs series that they lead 3-2, and they’re coming off a Game 5 home favorite SU loss, resulted in those Game 6 away favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 21.8 points per game.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus points.

Heat @ Bucks 9:30 ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Bucks -11.5 (5*)

We have a double-digit postseason favorite that’s down 3-1 in a playoff series. This point-spread tells me everything I need to know. This is the game where Miami truly misses the loss of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their absences in the previous game weren’t noticeable because the Heat won and Jimmy Butler turned in a playoff performance for the ages with a 58-point game. Although Butler will continue to carry the load offensively, the probability of him even coming close to his 58-point scoring night are extremely low.  Nobody else in the Heat lineup at this present time has shown any indication they can be a consistent offensive contributor to help take off some of the burden currently bestowed upon “Jimmy Buckets”. I’m looking for the Bucks defensive intensity to be at a high-level tonight after going through lapses over the past 2 weeks.

Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus points.

Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Lakers +4.5 (5*)

For starters, the Lakers lost their last contest on the road in Game 2 at Memphis. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 away after losing the last time they played a road game. The lakers won both games at home in this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU this season as an away underdog of 9.0 or less immediately following a home win. The average point-spread in those 6 contests was 6.5 and they outscored those 6 opponents by an average of 5.0 points per game. The Lakers have played superb defense in their 5 postseason games while holding opponents 105.8 points per contest and 42.0% shooting from the field. The average point total allowed would be better than it already was if not for 2 of those 5 games requiring overtime. Despite Memphis being the Western Conference #2 seed and the Lakers #7, the lower seeded team is the better team at this juncture of the season.

Give me the Lakers plus the points.

Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 529-530

Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*)

We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game.

Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 9:00 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Nuggets -9.5 (5*)

Minnesota staved off elimination with a 114-108 home overtime win in Game 4 on Sunday. The Timberwolves blew a 12-point lead late in the 4th quarter but survived to play another day. However, playing in Denver this season has been nothing short of a hornet’s nest for Minnesota. The Nuggets have won all 4 meetings at home versus Minnesota this season and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During those 4 contests, Denver scored 124.7 points per game and shot a sizzling hot 53.8% from the field. Denver is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 conference home games following a loss and won by 16.7 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Denver is an outstanding 36-7 SU (.837) and 27-16-1 ATS (62.8%) at home this season.

Any #1 seed home favorite of 9.0 or greater like Denver who are playing in Game 5 of a NBA Playoff series, and they’re coming off an away favorite SU loss in Game 4. resulted in them going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA postseason. Those favorites won by an average of 23.7 points per game.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus points.

Kings @ Warriors 3:30 ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Warriors -7.5 (5*)

Golden State is coming off a 114-97 home win over Sacramento to take a 2-1 series lead. Golden State is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 at home following a game in which they allowed 105 points or fewer and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Golden State is a perfect 7-0 SU at home versus Sacramento with an average victory margin of 12.5 points per game. Golden State is 11-1 SU&ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of -9.5 or less, and if their opponent was coming off a SU loss, they were 4-0 SU&ATS during that time frame.

Sacramento scored less than 100 points for just the 5th time this season in their Game 3 loss. Furthermore, the Kings are 0-3 SU&ATS on the road this season following a game in which they scored 99 points or fewer and were beaten by an average of 13.7 points per contest.

Give me the Golden State Warriors minus the points.

Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*)

Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive.

The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Suns @ Clippers 10:30 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Suns -2.5 (5*)

Phoenix is coming off a 123-109 home win over the Clippers which tied the series at 1-1. Since 2017, Game 3 NBA Playoff away favorites that are coming of a home win by 10 points or more which evened the series up at 1-1 went 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The away favorites won by an average of 10.4 points per game.

Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU&ATS at home this season immediately following a road loss by 10 points or more and they lost by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 4 of those losses came against teams that are currently participating in the NBA Playoffs. The Clippers are 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus the Suns this season and lost by scores of 111-95 and 112-95.

Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points.

Timberwolves @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Timberwolves +8.5 (5*)

Minnesota turned in an embarrassing performance during a 109-80 blowout loss to Denver in Game 1. The Timberwolves are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in their last 5 away games following an away loss in which they scored 108 points or fewer. Their average point-spread in those 5 win and covers was +4.9. I look for Minnesota to put up a huge fight and take this game down to the wire at the very least.

Give me the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points.

Heat @ Bucks 9:00 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Bucks -6.5 (5*)

With or without Giannis Antetokounmpo I like the Bucks this evening. He’s likely out and being listed as doubtful and by what the current point-spread indicates it points directly to him being unavailable. Nevertheless, the Bucks have one of the deepest rosters quality wise as any in the NBA. They’ll also display a high degree of urgency and desperation this week in attempting to avoid traveling back to Miami down 2-0 in the series.

Since 5/26/2021, NBA Playoffs home teams playing in a Game 2 and coming off a home loss have gone 11-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per game.

Give me the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points.

Lakers @ Grizzlies 7:30 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Grizzlies +1.5 (5*)

Memphis dropped the series opener to the Lakers 128-112. Despite that very disappointing performance, the Grizzlies are 35-7 SU (.833) at home this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season immediately after losing at home in their previous contest and they won by a substantial margin of 16.7 points per game. Ja Morant is listed as questionable due to the bruised hand he suffered in Game 1 and this current point-spread surely indicates the sportsbooks don’t expect him to play. However, if he’s available and even not 100% expect Memphis to move to a small favorite in this contest.

Ja Morant playing or not playing, I’m taking the Memphis Grizzlies either way.

Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*)

Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest.

Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game.

Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points.

Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:30 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (5*)

The Knicks are coming off an impressive Game 1 SU win at Cleveland in a game they closed as a 5.0-point underdog. Recent NBA Playoffs betting history has shown those losing home teams like Cleveland recover strongly at home in Game 2 to not only win, but they do so by a decisive margin. NBA playoff teams that are playing in Game 2 of a series at home and are coming off a home SU loss in Game 1 have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 5/26/2021. The average line for the home team was -3.9 and they outscored the visitors by 16.9 points per game.

Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points.

Nets @ 76ers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: 76ers -10.0 (5*)

Philadelphia has dominated Brooklyn this season by going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS against them and with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Additionally, during those 5 wins Philadelphia shot a red-hot 44.6% from beyond the 3-points and held the Nets to 105 or fewer points during the last 3 of those meetings.

Any NBA favorite like Philadelphia that’s leading in a playoff series and is facing an opponent line Brooklyn who has a season win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those playoff favorites going 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 2019. The average line in those 34 contests was 7.6 and the favorites outscored the underdogs by a decisive margin of 15.1 points per game.

Give me the 76ers minus the points.

Clippers @ Suns 8:00 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Clippers +8.0 (5*)

Since the 2018-2019 season, NBA away teams like the Clippers with a winning record versus an opponent like Phoenix that has a win percentage of .510 to .600 and they’ve played 3 games or fewer throughout the last 10 days, resulted in those teams going 26-10 SU (72.2%). The SU results take on added significance since it supports the sizable underdog in this matchup.

Give me the Clippers plus the points.

Knicks @ Cavaliers 6:00 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Knicks +5.5 (5*)

The Knicks have been a very good road team this season by going 24-17 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in those contests. Furthermore, New York has gone an extremely profitable 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a conference away underdog. The Knicks have also gone a noteworthy 11-2 SU this season when playing in their 6th game or fewer over the last 14 days like they’ll be doing today. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Knicks won this game outright. However, I’m not going to get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus.

Give me the New York Knicks plus the points.

Atlanta @ Boston 3:30 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Boston -9.0 (5*)

Boston was a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta during regular season action and won by an average of 13.3 points per game. During those 3 wins, Boston averaged 126.7 points scored per game, shot 52.2% from the field, and made 46.5% of its 3-point attempts. As a matter of fact, Boston made 20 or more 3-point shots in all 3 of those games. The Celtics are #2 in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency while Atlanta is #20 defensively. Since game 42 of this season, Boston has gone 13-1 ATS versus teams like Atlanta who allow opponents to shoot 48% or better on the year, and with the Celtics outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.8 points per contest. Atlanta has allowed 120 points or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Boston has scored 120 points or more in 7 of its last 10.

Give me the Boston Celtics minus the points.

Oklahoma City @ Minnesota 9:30 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*)

Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s overtime loss at the Lakers in a game they squandered a double-digit lead in the 2nd half. Since 4/10/2022, Minnesota has gone 0-7 SU&ATS at home when playing on exactly 2 days rest. Furthermore, the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been a great home favorite this season while 8-17 ATS and 12-13 SU in that role. That also includes 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU during its last 7 as a home chalk.

Oklahoma City is coming off Wednesday’s 123-118 win at New Orleans and did so as a 5.5-point underdog. The Thunder have now gone 48-25 ATS (65.8%) as an away underdog since the start of last season and that includes 21-11 ATS this year.

Give me the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog.

Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*)

The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game.

Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday.  The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game.

Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered.

Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite.

Oklahoma City @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*)

Oklahoma City has gone 1-2 SU versus New Orleans this season. However, both losses came by exactly 3 points. Since the 2021-2022 season began, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in their games at New Orleans. New Orleans is 7-15 ATS this season versus opponents like Oklahoma City that average 116.0 points scored per game. Since the start of last season, the Thunder have gone 47-25 (65.3%) ATS as a road underdog. OKC is coming off a 115-100 win over Memphis in their regular season finale. The Thunder have gone 15-5 ATS (75%) this season following a win by 10 points or more in their previous contest, and they won 11 of those 20 games straight up.

Give me Oklahoma City as an underdog.

Chicago @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Chicago +6.5 (5*)

The Bulls finished the regular season strong by going 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS during their last 17 games. Chicago has also gone a very profitable 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 11 away games. Chicago has also shot 51.1% or better in 7 of its last 10 games.

Give me Chicago as an underdog.

Hawks @ Heat 7:10 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Hawks +5.5 (5*)

Atlanta failed to cover their last 2 regular season games. However, the Hawks are an extremely profitable 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games immediately following 2 consecutive ATS losses and averaged outscoring those opponents by 10.5 points per contest.

Miami is coming off a 123-100 win over Orlando and they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Heat have gone 0-9 ATS and 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as a favorite of 2.5 or more following an ATS cover in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game.

Give me the Hawks plus the points.

Oklahoma City @ Golden State 10:10 ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: Oklahoma City +8.5 (5*)

Golden State has been very good at home this season and will be facing a Thunder teams which has lost 5 of its last 7 games. However, OKC has gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS this season after a stretch in which they lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Oklahoma City has gone an extremely profitable 47-24-1 ATS as an away underdog and that includes 20-10-1 ATS in that role this season.

Give me Oklahoma City plus the points.

Sacramento @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: New Orleans -3.5 (5*)

Despite being 7.0 games ahead of the New Orleans in the standings and winning 15 of its last 21 games, Sacramento comes up as an underdog in tonight’s matchup. On the other hand, New Orleans is a red-hot 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. This is also a Pelicans team which has gone 25-13 SU at home. Additionally, New Orleans has gone 14-2 ATS this season when facing an opponent like Sacramento who has a 48.0% or greater field goal percentage defense and outscored them by 13.2 points per contest. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans have allowed 96 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 outing and just 100.3 points per game during that stretch. They may be catching the Kings at the right moment as they just recently clinched a playoff berth which ended a NBA longest postseason drought. There’s a high probability of a Sacramento flat spot tonight.

Give me New Orleans minus the points.

Minnesota @ Sacramento 9:40 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (5*)

Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 99-96 win at Golden State and has now been victorious in 3 straight games. The Timberwolves are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 when playing with no rest and coming off a win. They were an underdog in all 4 of those contests while outscoring those favorites by 7.3 points per game.

Sacramento is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite when facing an opponent playing with no rest and coming off a win. The Kings average point-spread in those contests was -3.5 and they were outscored by 8.8 points per game.

Give me Minnesota plus the points.

New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: New York -2.5 (5*)

Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers.

New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game.

Give me New York minus the points.

Orlando @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Orlando +5.0 (5*)

Chicago enters today’s game having gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and lost by 11.3 points per contest. Additionally, they averaged a paltry 94.3 points scored per game in those 3 defeats. Chicago’s most recent defeat came at Cleveland 97-89. The Bulls are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a game in which they scored less than 100 points.

Orlando has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as an underdog of between 3.0 and 10.5 following a SU loss. Orlando’s average point-spread in those contests was +7.2 and they won by a comfortable margin of 10.0 points per game.

Give me Orlando plus the points.

Minnesota @ Memphis 8:10 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Minnesota +7.0 (5*)

Minnesota has done extremely well in this point-spread parameter since 1/2/2023. During that time, the Timberwolves have gone 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of between 1.5 to 7.5 with an average victory margin of 7.9 points per game.

Despite Memphis coming off a win in their previous game, they’ve gone an abysmal 2-8 SU in their last 10 including 0-4 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less and losing by 6.3 points per contest.

Give me Minnesota minus the points.

Denver @ Orlando 7:10 PM ET

Game# 547-548

Play On: Orlando +6.5 (5*)

Denver is an excellent 26-4 SU and and 19-10-1 ATS on the road. However, the Nuggets are just 12-13 SU and 9-14-2 ATS on the road. Furthermore, Denver enters today having lost 3 consecutive road game.

Orlando began the season with a dismal 5-20 record in their first 25 games. Since that time, the Magic are 17-13 SU and 21-9 ATS. Moreover, Orlando is 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games as an underdog of between 5.0 and 10.5-points.

Give me Orlando pus the points.

Cleveland @ Washington 7:10 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Washington +3.0 (5*)

Cleveland is coming off yesterday’s division road blowout win over Indiana. However, the Cavaliers are 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road this season following a SU win. Cleveland is also 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season on the road and following an away win in their previous game. Cleveland is also 0-3 SU&ATS this season on the road when playing with no rest and lost by an average of 8.6 points per game.

Washington is coming off SU favorite losses in each of their previous 2 games and blew leads of 20-points or more on each occasion. That was preceded by the Wizards going 6-0 SU&ATS in the previous 6 before those pair of absolute meltdowns. On a positive note, throughout their previous 3 games the Wizards have scored 122.0 points per contest and shot a red-hot 51.4%.

NBA home teams like Washington that are coming off SU favorite losses in each of its previous 2 contests, abd they’re facing teams like Cleveland who are coming off an away division win, resulted in those NBA home teams going 27-7 SU (79.4%) since the beginning of the 1996-1997 season.

Give me Washington plus the small number.

Houston @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Oklahoma City -9.5 (5*)

Houston is coming off last night’s home loss to Toronto. The Rockets have gone an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season when playing with no rest and lost by an average of 17.2 points per game. Houston is 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 as an away underdog of 6.0 or greater. Their average point-spread in those 8 contests was +9.5 and they were outscored by 16.7 points per game. Houston will be facing a Thunder team tonight that averages 116.6 points scored per game this season. The Rockets are 0-8 SU&ATS on the road this season when facing opponents that average 116.0 points scored or more per game and they losy by 15.9 points per contest.

Oklahoma City has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home favorite versus and opponent playing with no rest and won by an average of 13.0 points per game. The Thunder will also be playing on 2 days rest and will look to revenge a 6-point loss at Houston on Wednesday night. Furthermore, OKC is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season as a home favorite and won by 15.2 points per game. All 5 of those wins came by 11 points or more.

Give me Oklahoma City minus the points.

Phoenix @ Washington 7:10 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Washington -4.0 (5*)

Portland is coming off a 122-12 win at Memphis in their previous game. However, that snapped an abysmal 0-8 SU&ATS losing run on the road for Portland. Conversely, Washington has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 and won by 11.3 points per game. Even more impressive is the fact that 5 of those 6 wins came on the road. Washington has also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 2.0 or more and outscored those opponents by 16.3 points per game.

Give me Washington minus the points.

Golden State @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Oklahoma City +5.5 (5*)

Golden State has been Jekyll and Hyde regarding their home/away splits. The Warriors are 19-6 at home but a dismal 6-18 on the road. They’re coming off a 129-117 home win over Toronto in their previous game and that’s the good news. The bad is that they’re 2-10 ATS on the road this season following a win in their previous game, and they were outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game.

Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU in their last 6 as an underdog of 2.0 or greater. The Thunder are also an extremely profitable 10-1 ATS and 8-3 SU during its last 11 games. Throughout their previous 5 contests OKC has shot a red-hot 49.7% from the field and made an exceptional 41.0% of its 3-point shot attempts.

Give me Oklahoma City plus the points.

LA Lakers @ Boston 8:40 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Boston -8.5 (5*)

The Celtics enter today’s contest on a 3-game losing streak. That’s occurred just 1 other time this season. The first time it transpired, Boston followed it up with a 4-game win streak and with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per contest. The Lakers have won 3 of its last 4. Yet, they find themselves as a sizable underdog versus an opponent in a min-slump. The line tells me all I need to know when it comes to what the right side is.

Give me Boston minus the points.

Washington @ New Orleans 8:10 PM ET

Game# 533-534

Play On: Washington +5.0 (5*)

New Orleans has lost 6 straight games and has been anemic offensively during recent games while scoring less than 100 points in 3 of its last 5. That’s not a winning formula and especially since the Pelicans have allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot a combined 49.4%.

Washington comes into this game well rested after not playing since Wednesday. Additionally, the Wizards are on a successful 4-0 SU&ATS perfect run with 3 of those games played on the road. The Wizards have shot a red-hot 39.7% from beyond the 3-point line over their previous 5 games. It always helps to have an underdog who is knocking down 3-point shot a high percentage.

Give me Washington plus the points.

Sacramento @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Minnesota +2.5 (5*)

The Kings will have a decided rest advantage in this contest. They haven’t played since Wednesday’s 113-95 home loss to Toronto. That contest went well under the total of 238.0. Sacramento is 8-15 SU this season after going under the total in their previous contest.

Minnesota is 8-1 SU&ATS in their last 9 and 5-0 SU&ATS during its previous 5 games this season as a home underdog. Minnesota is coming off last night's home win over Memphis. The Timberwolves are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a home underdog playing with no rest with an average victory margin of 6.7 points per game.

Give me Minnesota plus the small number.

Toronto @ Golden State 10:10 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Toronto +5.5 (5*)

Despite being 18-6 at home this season and facing a team that’s a poor 7-15 on the road, Golden State is currently only a 5.0-point favorite. However, the Warriors are coming off an 122-120 home win over Memphis, and they’ve gone 0-4 SU in their last 4 immediately following a win. Furthermore, Golden State hasn’t won 2 consecutive games since January 2nd.

Toronto is begging to show some life after vastly underachieving for most of the season. The Raptors are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 while winning 2 of those contests SU. The most recent of which was a 15-point blowout victory at Sacramento. Toronto has shot 49.2% throughout its previous 5 games and also made an impressive 39.1% of their 3-point attempts.

Give me Toronto plus the points.

Memphis @ Sacramento 10:40 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Sacramento +1.5 (5*)

This will be the Grizzlies 3rd road game in the last 4 days and they lost the first 2 in gut wrenching fashion by a combined 3 points. Memphis is a terrific 20-3 at home this season, but they’re a mediocre at best 11-12 in away games.

Sacramento is coming off Saturday’s 129-127 home loss to Philadelphia. That snapped a Sacramento 6-game win streak. This will be the Kings 3rd straight game played at home. More than anything else, this should be a very advantageous situation for Sacramento despite playin a Memphis team they trail by 4.5-games in the Western Conference standings.

Give me Sacramento plus the small number.

Golden State @ San Antonio 7:40 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: San Antonio +9.0 (3*)

Golden State is hands down the better team in this matchup. However, it’s my job to beat the point-spread and assess the situation pertaining the topic for both teams. Golden State has 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and was outscored by an average of 9.7 points per game while being a favorite on each occasion. As a matter of fact, they shot 37.5% and 38.5% from the floor in their previous 2. Conversely, San Antonio has gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU during its last 5 at home with their average point-spread being +6.4.

Give me San Antonio plus the points.

New Orleans @ Dallas 8:10 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Dallas -7.0 (5*)

They’re coming off last night’s 108-102 home loss to Brooklyn. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS on the road this season when facing a team like Dallas that has a winning record. New Orleans is also 1-5 SU&ATS during its previous 6 away games.

Dallas is also coming off a 124-95 home blowout loss to Boston on Thursday night. That embarrassing defeat ended a Dallas 7-game win streak. Dallas will have a huge rest advantage tonight. The Mavericks will be playing in only their 3rd game over the last 7 days. Conversely, New Orleans will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

Give me Dallas minus the points.

New York @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Toronto -3.5 (5*)

This line makes little sense to me and when that occurs, I tend to lean toward a contrarian approach. The Knicks enter today on a 3-game win streak in addition to capturing 7 of its last 9 away contests. Conversely, Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 and 10 of their previous 13 games. Yet, Toronto opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and is now up to a 3.5-point chalk. This despite most tickets and money being wagered on New York as of early Friday morning. This is a classic example of reverse line movement.

Give me Toronto minus the points.

Celtics @ Mavericks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 579-580

Play On: Celtics -2.5 (4*)

This line is a bit of a head scratcher with all considered. Dallas is currently on a 7-game win streak and is 15-5 at home. Boston will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days and the first 2 were forgetful. The Celtics were inexplicable hammered at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night 150-117 as an 11.5-point favorite. On their 1st game of this road trip, they were defeated 123-111 at Denver. They allowed Denver and Oklahoma City to shoot a combined 58.2% which is absolutely atrocious defense. Yet. Boston is a small road favorite against a red-hot Nuggets team. This looks like an ideal situation to jump all over the home underdog. However, it’s seldom that easy when it comes to sports betting. I am going with a contrarian mindset in this spot.

Give me Boston minus the small number.

Timberwolves @ Heat 7:40 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Timberwolves +3.5 (5*)

Since the start of last season, Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU versus Miami and with an average victory margin of 8.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, since 12/30/2018. Minnesota has gone 8-1 SU versus Miami.

Miami has drained their betting supporters out of a lot of money thus far when playing at home. They’ve gone just 9-8 SU and 3-13-1 ATS at home this season. That includes going 1-4 SU and 0-5 during its last 5 at home.

Give me the Timberwolves plus the points.

Bulls @ Knicks 7:40 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Knicks -5.0 (5*)

The Knicks will be in a sour mood after suffering a 113-106 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. That ended a 8-game win streak for New York. Chicago will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off away underdog SU wins in their previous 2. However, they’ve gone 0-2 SU&ATS versus New York this season with both coming on their home floor. They lost those 2 contests to New York by 8 and 23 points and were a combined -28 on the boards.

Give me New York minus the points.

Charlotte @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Sacramento -9.5 (5*)

There is no analysis today due to time constraints.

Utah @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Cleveland -6.0 (5*)

There is no analysis today due to time constraints.

Toronto @ Philadelphia 7:10 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Philadelphia -7.5 (5*)

There is no analysis today due to time constraints.

No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints.

No analysis on Monday’s NBA picks due to time constraints.

Indiana @ Sacramento 10:10 PM ET

Game# 549-550

Play On: Indiana +4.5 (5*)

Sacramento put together a 7-game win streak this season and it was their longest unbeaten run since 2004. However, since that time, the Kings have gone 0-3 SU&ATS and were outscored by 10.7 points per game.

Indiana has gone 12-3 ATS throughout their previous 15 contests and won 11 of those games straight up. The Pacers are also 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 away games.

NBA teams that have covered 12 or more of their previous 15 games and are playing in its 8th game or more over the past 14 days, resulted in those teams going 26-6 ATS (81.2%) since 2018.

Give me the Indiana Pacers plus the points.

Minnesota @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Indiana +2.0 (5*)

Indiana enters this contest having gone 8-2 SU&9-1 ATS during its previous 10 games played and that includes a current 5-game unbeaten streak. During this 5-game winning streak the Pacers have held opponents to a mere 40.9% shooting and 30.1 from 3-point territory while outscoring them by an average of 11.2 points per game. The Pacers will be up to the challenge against a Minnesota team which is also on a win streak of 4-games.

Give me the Indiana Pacers.

Utah @ Portland 10:10 PM ET.

Game# 535-536

Play On: Utah +3.5 (5*)

I usually don’t like taking teams like Utah that are playing with no rest versus an opponent who is. However, there’s an exception to every one of my tendencies and this is one of those spots. Portland is coming off last night’s 134-133 home win over Phoenix in a game they shot a scalding hot 56.0%. The Jazz are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they shot 50% or better and won by an average of 9.0-points per contest. This will be the first meeting of the season between these division rivals. The Jazz were 4-0 SU&ATS versus Portland last season and won by a substantial average of 26.5 points per game.

Give me Utah plus the points.

New York @ Denver 10:10 PM ET

Game# 571-572

Play On: Denver -3.5 (5*)

The Nuggets will be without star center Nikola Jokic tonight. However, the line as been adjusted accordingly for his absence. Denver is 5-1 in their last 6 and will be playing on 2 days rest. Their only loss in that sequence came against an 11-3 Boston team who is currently on a 7-game win streak.

New York is coming off last night’s 118-111 win at Utah. The Knicks are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a win and lost by a decisive margin of 15.7 points per game.

Give me Denver minus the points.

Boston @ Atlanta 7:40 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Boston -2.5 (5*)

The red-hot Boston Celtics will enter this contest riding a 7-game win streak. They’ll be facing an Atlanta team coming off a 121-106 win at Milwaukee as a 4.5-point underdog.

NBA road favorites versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a road underdog SU upset win by 10 points or more resulted in those road favorites going 50-11 SU since 2018, and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per contest. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, the SU results in this precise situation takes on added significance.

Give me Boston minus the small number.

Indiana @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Indiana +2.5 (5*)

Charlotte is coming off a 112-105 win at Orlando in their previous game. The Hornets are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win and lost by 7.3 points per contest. Simply put, Charlotte hasn’t won 2 consecutive games so far in this 2022-2023 NBA campaign. The Hornets are also 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home. Conversely, Indiana is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and won 5 of those contests SU.

Give me Indiana plus the small number.

New Orleans @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Chicago +2.0 (5*)

The Pelicans are averaging a robust a robust 118.5 points per game. However, they’ve gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and allowed 120 points or more on each occasion.

Chicago is 4-1 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season. This will mark the first time that the Bulls will be hosting a non-conference opponent. They went 12-3 SU last season at home versus non-conference opponents.

NBA teams like Chicago who are +3.0 to -3.0 who are playing before Game 42 and facing an opponent averaging 118.0 or more points scored per game, resulted in those home teams going 33-8 SU (81%) since 1996.

Give me Chicago plus the small number.

Denver @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Indiana +6.0 (5*)

The Pacers began this season by losing 4 of its first 5 game. Since then, they’ve gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS with all those Pacers results coming as an underdog. Denver is 7-3 but just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. This contest has the earmarks of a close game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Indiana walk off with another SU underdog win. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and proceed to take the points being given to us.

Give me Detroit plus the points.

Portland @ Phoenix 10:10 PM ET

Game# 545-546

Play On: Phoenix -10.5 (5*)

This is one of those uncomfortable picks for me and only because I hate betting NBA double-digit favorites. However, there’s exception to every sports betting rule, and this pick qualifies in that regard. The Suns are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games with an average victory margin of 16.6 points per contest. As a matter of fact, their last and only loss this season was a 113-111 defeat at Portland. Portland’s star point guard Damien Lillard scored 41 points in that contest. Lillard will be out tonight with a calf injury. Which leads to this Phoenix Suns betting trend that’s difficult to ignore. The Suns are 15-1 ATS since 2020 when playing with same season revenge stemming from a road favorite SU loss. Additionally, the Suns are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game. Give me Phoenix minus the big number.

Milwaukee @ Minnesota 10:10 PM ET

Game# 547-548

Play On: Minnesota +3.5 (5*)

Milwaukee is off to a terrific 7-0 start to the season and covered 6 of those contests. Before we anoint them as the next NBA champion let’s keep this in mind. The Cumulative record of their opponents this season is a dismal 13-28 (.317). The only team they faced who currently has a winning record is Atlanta (5-3). Minnesota is a much better team than their 4-4 record indicates, and they’ll display that this evening. The Timberwolves won both regular season meetings versus Milwaukee a season ago by scores of 138-19 and 113-108.

Give me Minnesota plus the points.

Chicago @ Boston 7:40 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Boston -7.0 (5*)

Boston will be out to revenge an embarrassing 120-102 blowout loss at Chicago just 12 days ago. However, the sportsbooks are unfazed by that result when looking at the sizable number that the Celtics are laying in this game. I’m think like a bookmaker so give me Boston minus the points.

Nuggets @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Denver -6.0 (5*)

This is one of those lines that won’t make sense to many NBA bettors. After all, Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Their most recent win was a 116-108 home win over Orlando this past Tuesday. Yet, they’re a sizable home underdog in this contest against a Denver team which has an identical 4-3 season record as they have, and they’re just 1-3 SU&ATS in road games. Denver is coming off a 121-110 road loss at the then winless Lakers in their previous contest in a game they closed as a 3.5-point favorite.

NBA road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU favorite loss (Denver), versus an opponent coming off a home win in which they scored 110 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 57-21 ATS (73.1%) since 1996 and 24-6 ATS (80%) since 2018.

If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, more times than not it is. This is a textbook example of exactly that. Give me the Nuggets minus the points.

Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660).

Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play.

Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*)

The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below.

Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660).

Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team.

Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET

Game# 519-52

Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*)

The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami.

These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.

Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*)

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State.

However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 953-954

Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*)

This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait.

Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury.

Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*)

Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*)

The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Suns 8:00 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Phoenix -6.5 (5*)

The home teams have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in this series and have won by a decisive margin of 17.2 points per game. Phoenix is 5-0 SU at home versus Dallas this season and all those wins came by 7 points or more. This is a battle tested Suns team that advanced to the 2021 NBA Finals before falling to Milwaukee in 6 games.

Phoenix lost Game 6 of this series 113-86 as a 2.0-point favorite. Any Game 7 home favorite (Suns) of 6.0 or more that’s coming off a Game 6 straight up favorite loss, resulted in those home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 200, and they won by an average of 22.2 points per game. Give me the Suns minus the points.

Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)

Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin.

The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Memphis @ Golden State 10:00 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Golden State -8.0 (5*)

So, let’s assess all the facts leading into this Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals. Memphis won Game 5 on Wednesday in a 134-95 rout. The Grizzlies led that contest by 52 heading into the 4th quarter. Yet here they sit as a large 8.5-point underdog. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the points and banking on you overreacting to what you witnessed in the previous game of this series. I’m not taking the bait. The core group of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson all have plenty of experience on how to close out a series at home. I like them to succeed on Friday and Golden State to win by a double-digit margin while doing so. Give me Golden State minus the points.