Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-18 | Rockets v. Clippers +3 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Houston Rockets. This is a horrid scheduling spot for Houston. It played its first road game of the season last night vs. the Lakers, and now continues this early season road trip without the benefit of a day off. Meanwhile, the Clippers had Saturday off following their blowout win over the Thunder. For technical support, consider that, since 1990, one would have cashed 71% by playing against unrested NBA favorites on the road if they were coming off a win in their first road game of the season. Even better: if our road team had a win percentage of .666 (or better) the previous season, then our 71% ATS system zooms to 83% ATS since 1990. Take the Los Angeles Clippers to blow out Houston. NBA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Wolves v. Mavs +3 | Top | 136-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Last night, Minnesota bested Cleveland, 131-123, while Dallas had the last two nights off following its 121-100 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday. I look for Rick Carlisle's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 45-21-4 ATS off a road loss, if they're playing an opponent off a win, including a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS if they lost by more than 20 points in their previous game. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Toronto Raptors. The fans in Toronto must be giddy with excitement after the Kawhi Leonard acquisition. In two games, he's averaging 27.5 ppg, and also 11.5 rpg. But both of Toronto's two games this season were at home; tonight's game is on the road. And the Raptors will also be playing without rest. This is a horrific scheduling situation for the Raptors, as they will be playing without rest, and will also be playing their third game in four nights to start their season. Since 1996, unrested NBA favorites have cashed just 19% when opening the season with 3 games in 4 nights, and playing a rested foe. Take Washington. |
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10-20-18 | Nets v. Pacers -8 | Top | 112-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers were blown out by 17 points last night in Milwaukee. But Indiana's back home tonight, and will be taking on a 1-1 Brooklyn squad that won at home last night vs. New York. The Pacers are a super 40-14 ATS off a loss by more than 12 points, if they're matched up against a .400 (or better) foe. And they're also 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings vs. the Nets. Lay the points with Indy. |
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10-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +3 | Top | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Jazz won all three meetings vs. Golden State last season after the calendar turned on January 1. And they won those three games by an average of 29.67 points per game, even though they were -- on average -- an underdog of 3 points in those games. I look for the Jazz to blow out Golden State tonight, as Game 2 road favorites are a soft 37-55-2 (40%) since 1990. Take Utah + the points. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Kings +10.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 129-149 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans upset Houston, which was the team with the league's best record last season (65-17). Let's fade New Orleans at home on Friday, as NBA teams have cashed just 26.3% since 1990 as favorites off an upset win over an opponent which owned a .500 (or better) record the previous season. Take Sacramento + the points. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Hornets -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 120-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Orlando. The Hornets lost at home, on Wednesday, by a single point to the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, Orlando upset the Miami Heat, 104-101, as a 2.5-point home dog. We'll play against Orlando, as underdogs that opened the season with an upset win have covered just 20% of their Game 2s since 1990 when matched up against an opponent off a loss. Take Charlotte. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-18-18 | Lakers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the LA Lakers. To say the Blazers have dominated the Lakers would be an understatement. Since April 2014, Portland has won ALL 15 meetings, and has covered the point spread in 13 of the 15 games. Admittedly, this is a different Lakers team, with LeBron James being the featured player. But Portland has won and covered its last four home meetings vs. LeBron James, so I'm not dissuaded from taking the Blazers. Even better: Portland has a second streak at play tonight, which is more impressive than its 15-0 record vs. the Lakers. And that's Portland's record in its home openers. It's the longest win streak in NBA history, and currently sits at 17 games (14-3 ATS). Lay the points with the Trail Blazers. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +6 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. It's deja vu all over again, as the Warriors once again have a 3-games-to-none stranglehold on the series. However, the Cavs blew out the Warriors, 137-116, in Game 4 last season, and I expect another strong effort on Friday night. Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 64.2% over the past 28 years in the NBA Finals off a pointspread defeat if they trail 2-0 or 3-0 in the series. Even better: LeBron James' teams have gone 47-27 ATS at home in the Playoffs provided they weren't leading in the series. Take Cleveland + the points. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under. Analysis to follow. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. The Warriors won Game 1, 124-114, in overtime, to take a 1-0 series lead. Off that loss, we'll grab the points with Cleveland, as .610 (or better) NBA teams are 61-42 ATS as underdogs when down 1 game to none in a Playoff series. And LeBron James' teams have gone 23-15 ATS on the road in the Playoffs off a SU loss. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -12 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Cleveland. The Western Conference has been dominant vs. the East, as its teams have now had home court advantage in the NBA Finals for 18 of the last 21 years! In the previous 20 seasons, over those 17 NBA Finals openers where it owned home court advantage in the finals, the Western Conference has won Game 1 all but two seasons (2001, 2004), and has gone 13-4 ATS. Even worse for LeBron James & Co., the Western Conference has now won and covered 10 STRAIGHT TIMES (since 2005) in Game 1 when it owned home court advantage in the Finals! And LeBron James teams accounted for six of those 10 defeats. I look for Golden State to blow out Cleveland, as it's 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with those seven wins by an average of 15.28 ppg. Moreover, Golden State has gone 15-1 SU and 10-6 ATS in the opening game of its last 16 Playoff series, and it also falls into 90-49 and 32-10 ATS Playoff Systems of mine, that take certain teams in Game 1, based on various team statistics. Lay it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State. This will be the fourth Game 7 of this year's NBA Playoffs. The home team has won two of the first three, with Boston, last night, being the sole loser. Dating back to 1991, the home teams have gone 55-16 straight-up and 41-28-2 ATS in the 71 Game 7s. Interestingly, this will be just the 2nd time a home team has been an underdog in a Game 7 since 1991, and the other time was also with this Houston Rockets squad, back in 2015, when they were a 2.5-point dog to the Clippers. Houston pulled the upset in that game, and I wouldn't be surprised if it shocked the world, here, tonight -- especially since they were blown out by 29 on Saturday. Indeed, since 1991, underdogs have cashed 89% of the time off a loss in the semi-finals or finals by 22+ points, if they didn't trail in the series. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 209 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 214 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in Game 6 between Golden State and Houston. We have won each of the first five games of this series, including a play on the Under in Game 5. That game went Under by a whopping 28 points, as Houston won, 98-94, to take a 3-2 series lead. The bad news for the Rockets is that PG Chris Paul (24.39 PER this season) suffered an injury, so he won't play tonight. This season, Paul missed 24 games. And while the Rockets were 15-9 straight-up in those games, they were 9-15 ATS, including 0-4 SU/ATS as an underdog. Even worse, the Rockets averaged just 107.7 ppg without Paul in the line-up (compared to 112.7 ppg with him on the court). Certainly, his 18.6 points, 7.9 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game were missed. Not surprisingly, the Rockets have gone 15-9 Under the total without Paul in the line-up this season, including 9-2 Under on the Road, and 8-0 Under when not favored by more than 5 points! I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 201.5 | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cleveland/Boston game, as it falls into an 82-42 Totals system of mine. These two teams have played four of their first five games in this year's Playoffs Under the total. And that has continued a long-term trend in this series, as 18 of the last 27 games have gone Under. Additionally, Boston's 17-6 Under on the road in the Playoffs. And teams, like Cleveland, that scored less than 85 points in their previous game, and now trail in a Playoff series, and face elimination, have gone Under the total 58.41% the past 25 years. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State/Houston game to go 'under' the total. This series has seen three of its first four games go 'under' the total. And Game 4 went under by a whopping 40 points. I look for this trend to continue on Thursday, as the 'under' falls into an 195-139 totals system of mine. Additionally, Playoff games have gone 'under' the total 68.1% of the time the past 25 years if the previous playoff game went 'under' by more than 36 points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's well-chronicled that the Boston Celtics have yet to lose a playoff game at home this season (they're 9-0 -- both straight-up and against the spread). That's one reason to favor the Celtics in Game 5, tonight. Another is that Boston has been the much superior team against the point spread this season. Boston's covered 63.5%, while Cleveland's cashed just 39.5%. That's a whopping 24 percent difference. And in the Playoffs, home teams that have covered more than 17.1% of the time than their opponents have cashed a staggering 82.35% since 1991! Take Boston in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State. The Rockets owned the best record in the league this season. But all of that success went out the window in Game 3 when they lost by 41 points. I love Houston to bounce back on Tuesday, as .667 (or better) teams are a perfect 17-0 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7 to +13 points, in Games 2, 3 or 4 of a Playoff series, if they trail by 1 or 2 games in the series. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland. The Celts were bombed by 30 points by Cleveland on Saturday. Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., favorites off a playoff blowout win by more than 21 points generally fail to cover the spread in their next playoff game vs. that embarrassed opponent, and especially if they trail in the series. Since 1991, such teams have covered just 24.2% of the time, including 0-8 ATS in the last two rounds of the Playoffs. Cleveland is a poor 22-50-1 ATS this season as a favorite, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off a loss by 14+ points. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 61-34-2 ATS on the season, including 10-1-1 ATS when they lost their previous game by double-digits. And they're 16-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -7 | Top | 85-126 | Win | 100 | 92 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors. Analysis to follow. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavs. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -2 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Boston Celtics. The Cavs were blown out by 25 to start this series. But I love Cleveland to bounce back on Tuesday, as .610 (or better) teams have cashed 35 of 50 playoff games off a road defeat by more than 21 points. And LeBron James' teams have gone 10-6 SU/ATS in the playoffs when down 1-0 in a series. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | Top | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston. The Rockets' win percentage (including playoff games) is substantially higher (.793 vs. .717) than the Warriors' win percentage, and Houston also enjoys home court advantage. Yet Houston's not being given much respect in Vegas, as it's favored by a very short price. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "better" team in Game 1 laying a very short price, but consider that NBA teams that owned a much better (at least .060) win percentage have covered just 26% of their Game 1s since 1991 when not favored by more than four points! Take the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston. The Rockets took a 3-1 series lead with a sweep of the Jazz in Salt Lake City. The series returns to the Toyota Center tonight, where the Rockets will look to eliminate the Jazz. Unfortunately for Houston, it's been installed as a huge favorite. And home favorites of 12+ points off a win in the playoffs are a poor 13-34 ATS if they're not trailing in the series. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 205 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm (please note the early start), our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics to go 'under' the total. We played on the under in Saturday's Game 3, and easily got the $$$, even though the game did go into overtime. One of the reasons we played on that Game 3 to go 'under' was that the Celtics have been a strong 'under' team on the road (now 37-26-4 'under') and especially in the playoffs (now 15-5 'under' their last 20 road playoff games). Boston won that Game 3, as a 9.5-point underdog, and now leads this series 3 games to none. And that leads us to another reason why I love tonight's game to go 'under.' In the NBA playoffs, teams (like Philly) trailing in a series, and facing elimination have gone 'under' the total much more often than not over the past 28 years. This season, we've seen 7 of 10 such elimination games go 'under' the total, and I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans blew out the Warriors, 119-100, on Friday to cut the series deficit to one game heading into this Game 4. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, the Warriors are at their very best off a straight-up loss when playing an opponent off a win. Dating back to 2011, Golden State is 75-38-1 ATS in this situation, including 15-8 ATS in the Playoffs, and 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points vs. a .580 (or better) foe. Take the Warriors. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavs Under the total. The Raptors were upset at home, 128-110, by the Cavaliers on Thursday. Teams off home upset losses in the Playoffs tend to bounce back with better defensive games on the road the next time out, and such games have gone 'Under' the total 58% since 1991. The Under also falls into a 97-55 Totals system of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland. The Raptors were blown out, 128-110 in Game 2, and certainly didn't expect to be down 2 games to none in this series after compiling the best record in the Eastern Conference. We'll grab the points with Toronto as NBA playoff teams with a superior win percentage have cashed 79.16% since 1991 off back-to-back playoff losses, if they lost their previous game by 15+ points. Take Toronto. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -9 | Top | 101-98 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston. The Sixers are down 2 games to none in this series, and have been installed as a big favorite today. That bodes well for them, as teams down exactly two games in a series have cashed 71.05% at home in the first three rounds of the playoffs since 1991 when favored by more than 4 points. Lay it. |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Philly/Boston game. The Celtics are 36-26-4 Under the total on the road their last 66 games, and are 14-5 Under their last 19 Playoff games. The Under also falls into an 86-48 Totals system of mine. Take the Under. |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah. The Jazz stunned the #1-seeded Rockets on Wednesday, with a 116-108 victory at the Toyota Center. Unfortunately for the Jazz, NBA home teams are an awful 6-17 ATS in Game 3 of the quarterfinals, if they're off an upset win and the series is tied at 1-game apiece. Even worse: if their win percentage is .640 or worse, then they're a dismal 1-10 ATS. Take Houston in Game 3. Western Conference Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 42 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the 'under' in the Golden State/New Orleans game. The Warriors scored more than 120 points in each of the first two games of this series. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Friday in Game 3. But consider that NBA Playoff games have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992 in games where one (or both) of the teams had scored more than 116 points in each of its two previous Playoff games in that season. Take the Warriors/Pelicans 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |