| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 01-19-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
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Miami is 0-2 on its current four-game road trip. The Heat meet the Bulls here before concluding their road swing against the revenge-minded Celtics on Monday. This is the spot for the Heat to make sure they don't go 0-4 on this trip. Chicago is 0-9 in its last nine games. The Bulls just completed an embarrassing 0-5 road trip with a 30-point loss to the Nuggets this past Thursday. The Bulls come back home for the first time in nearly two weeks at low ebb and suffering a key below-the-radar injury. Chicago rookie forward Wendell Carter Jr. suffered a thumb injury this week that is going to sideline him two-to-three months. The 6-foot-10 Carter was coming on averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7 rebounds per game. More important, he gave the Bulls their only physical presence in the paint. His toughness is going to be missed especially against a rugged, defensive-minded team such as Miami. The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest points in the league. The Bulls are last in scoring. Miami lost 98-93 to the Pistons Friday night. The Heat made 5-of-19 free throws (26.3 percent) in that game setting a franchise-record for worst free throw shooting in a game with a minimum of 15 attempts. Miami isn't a good free throw shooting team mainly because of Hassan Whiteside, the worst free throw shooter in the league. But missing 19 of 24 free throws is absurd. The Heat also didn't have Josh Richardson, their leading scorer, in their loss to the Pistons. Richardson missed the game due to illness. It's obviously a plus if he plays. But even if he doesn't I like the Heat. Their Friday starting group of Whiteside, James Johnson Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson had only played two minutes together all season. Now they would get to start a second straight game within 24 hours. The Bulls lost to the Heat as four-point home underdogs, 103-96, when the teams met on Nov. 23. The Heat didn't have starting point guard Goran Dragic for that game either. Chicago has lost its last four games at United Center. Three of those losses were by 17 points to the Nets, 28 to the Magic and 25 to the Timberwolves.
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| 01-19-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -8.5 | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
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This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
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| 01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
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Both matchup-wise and situationally the Trail Blazers hold key edges. Portland plays better defense than the Pelicans, who rank 27th in scoring defense, and also is the stronger rebounding team ranking No. 3 in the category. The Trail Blazers are playing well, too, winning seven of their last 10. Anthony Davis is an absolute monster up front, but Portland big man Josuf Nurkic is playing the best ball of his career coming off a triple/double and the Trail Blazers hold a backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. As for the spot, Portland has a strong home-court. The Trail Blazers have won 19 of their 26 home games this season covering 62 percent. New Orleans is a bad road club losing 18 of its 24 away matchups while going 9-14 (39%) ATS in those games. This also is the Pelicans' fourth road game in seven days. Being bad on the road and weak defensively is a tough combination for the Pelicans to overcome. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Pelicans in 13 of the last 15 regular-season games, including 132-119 at home on Nov. 1 in the lone meeting between the teams this season. Davis, though, did not play in that game. Don't look for the Trail Blazers to take the Pelicans lightly, however. Portland still has bitter memories of the Pelicans sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
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| 01-18-19 | St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5 | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
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St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury. |
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| 01-17-19 | BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
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Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
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| 01-17-19 | Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
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After three straight Overs, look for Oregon to go Under the total in this matchup. The Ducks are going back to slowing things down following games against racehorses UCLA and USC. Arizona plays at a much more deliberate tempo than the Bruins and Trojans. Both Oregon and Arizona are outstanding defensive teams. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and gives up the 35th-fewest points in the nation. The Ducks are without their star shot blocker injured center Bol Bol,but could get big man Kenny Wooten back. The Ducks apply tremendous pressure on the ball ranking No. 1 in the Pac 12 in forcing turnovers. The Wildcats rank 45th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.1 points. Two strong defenses in a game where the tempo should be slow. That spells Under.
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| 01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
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Charlotte is one of those decent home, bad road teams. The Hornets are 14-8 at home, 6-15 on the road. One of those away defeats came just five days ago at Sacramento. The Kings won, 104-97. So the Hornets have short revenge motivation. Charlotte lost by seven points at the Kings. The Hornets were 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) at the free throw line in that game. They rank ninth on the season in free throw percentage at 78.9 percent. The Kings are 9-11 SU on the road, 10-10 ATS. Sacramento has been far worse than average, though, recently on the road losing and failing to cover during their past four away matchups. The Kings haven't been on the road for nine days. They lost their last road contest, 115-111, to the Suns, who by far have the worst record in the Western Conference. Sacramento is fat and happy with three straight victories - all coming at home. Now the Kings go on the road where they have not looked good.
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| 01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
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Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
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| 01-16-19 | Spurs +1 v. Mavs | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
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Gregg Popovich. That's the short answer as to why I like the Spurs here. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mentality having lost three of their last four games, including an embarrassing 108-93 loss to the Hornets at home on Monday. I trust Popovich to have his team fired-up. Dallas is tough at home. But the Mavericks are not as good as San Antonio and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games. The Spurs have been excellent in this situation covering 11 of the last 15 times when playing on one day's rest. There is a good chance the Spurs get back Rudy Gay. He has missed the last five games with a sprained wrist. It's an added bonus, too, if the Spurs get back key reserve Marco Belinelli, who suffered a knee injury this past Saturday and is day-to-day.
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| 01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 115-120 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
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Orlando is playing its best ball coming off consecutive home victories against the Celtics and Rockets this past weekend. The Magic are rested having been idle the past two days. They catch the Pistons returning home following a four-game West Coast trip that concluded Monday night in Utah. Detroit is 2-8 in its last 10 games and has a losing ATS mark when favored. The Magic have covered seven of the past eight times versus the Pistons, including defeating them, 109-107, as 1.5-point home favorites on Dec. 30. One of the major keys in beating Detroit is slowing down Blake Griffin. The Pistons beat the Clippers for their lone victory during their recently concluded four-game trip because Griffin lit up his former teammates for 44 points. Orlando has the defensive stopper to bother Griffin with Aaron Gordon. He helped hold Griffin to just four field goals and 15 points during the previous meeting.
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| 01-15-19 | Warriors -110 v. Nuggets | Top | 142-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
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Kudos to the Nuggets for owning the best record in the Western Conference at the halfway point of the season. I do believe the Nuggets are legitimate. They've always had a strong offense and now their defense is improved. However ... the Nuggets are not in the class of the two-time defending world champion Warriors especially now that Golden State has Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all back in the lineup. A motivated Warriors squad can beat any team any where. The Warriors certainly aren't going to lack incentive here trailing Denver by one-half game for best record in the West. Golden State also has revenge for a 100-98 road loss to the Nuggets from Oct. 21. Golden State has won six of its last seven games, including four in a row. The Warriors are averaging 130 points during their las six games. I want them going for me in this pick'em type range.
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| 01-15-19 | LSU +4 v. Ole Miss | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
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LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
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| 01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 128.5 | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
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These two teams met twice last season and the combined final score totals were 125 and 112 points, respectively. Both games went Under the total. This was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under has cashed in this series. Expect that trend to continue in today's matchup. Akron is averaging 66 points in three MAC games this season. The Zips are shooting only 36 percent from the floor and 23.7 percent from 3-point range in conference play. Both teams play at a very slow tempo. The Under is 18-7-1 in Eastern Michigan's last 26 MAC contests. The Zips figure to struggled against Eastern Michigan's matchup zone defense given their shooting woes. Akron is playing solid defense this season ranking 50th in field goal percentage defense.
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| 01-14-19 | Blazers +2.5 v. Kings | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
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Yes, the Trail Blazers had to play last night falling, 116-113, at Denver when their huge comeback came up just short against the Western Conference-leading Nuggets. Portland had won four in a row entering that matchup. The Kings are not the Nuggets. They are a 22-21 team that has failed to cover six of the last seven times when going against an above .500 opponent. Sacramento has a much improved backcourt with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic. But it's trumped by Portland's star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers also have the best big man on the floor, Jusuf Nurkic. Portland should dominate the boards ranking third in the NBA in rebounding while the Kings are a bottom-10 rebounding team. The Trail Blazers also have defeated the Kings during the past four meetings going 3-0-1 ATS.
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| 01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -6 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
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The Rockets average 10 more points per game than the struggling Grizzlies and are in a kill spot returning home after blowing a 12-point lead against the Magic while suffering a 116-109 road upset loss to the Magic Sunday. Houston is 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games, including defeating the Grizzlies, 113-101, on Dec. 31. The Rockets got too lax against the Magic and it cost them. Expect a much stronger effort and focus from the Rockets. Motivation, not talent, is the key for the Rockets against this opponent. And, now, Houston should have that. Based on talent, the Rockets should bury Memphis, which is 7-18 in its last 25 games and 1-7 in its last eight. The Grizzlies have lost by seven points or more in six of their past seven defeats. The Grizzlies are playing short-handed, too, down three of their rotation players with Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons all injured. The Rockets are playing without rest, but the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS when playing on one day rest.
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| 01-13-19 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
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Maybe the oddsmaker doesn't realize how bad Cleveland's defense really is because its season stats show the Cavaliers ranking 23rd in scoring defense. But no team has played worst defense than the Cavaliers during the past two weeks. Cleveland has yielded 117 or more points in seven of its last eight games. During their past four games, the Cavaliers are surrendering a whopping 128.5 points a game. Not helping matters for the Cavaliers is their top shot blocker, Larry Nance, is out. The Lakers are averaging 111.5 points in their past four home games. LeBron James isn't back, but talented scorers Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are. The Lakers want to light up the scoreboard to prove they aren't just about James especially going against his former team.
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| 01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | 113-116 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
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Denver got caught peeking ahead to this home matchup. The Nuggets were upset, 102-93, on the road by the lowly Suns Saturday night. Even with that defeat, though, the Nuggets still are 7-2 in their last nine games. They own the best record in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games at Pepsi Center. Portland is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times it has played on the road versus an opponent with a winning home mark. The Trail Blazers also enter this matchup fat and happy. They are on a four-game win streak - all home wins. Their last three victories have been against bad teams - Knicks, Bulls and Hornets. This is Portland's first road contest in 12 days. The Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS the last four times playing the Nuggets.
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| 01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
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If there was anything positive for the Hornets in their embarrassing 127-96 road loss to the Trail Blazers Friday night it was none of their players had to log big minutes. That should help Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets have been blown out now in two straight games, having lost 128-109 to the Clippers in LA on Tuesday. However, only once all season have the Hornets dropped three games in a row and that was more than a month ago. The Trail Blazers and Clippers are superior to the Hornets especially when playing them at home. The Kings aren't. Sacramento has lost one fewer game than Charlotte. The Hornets are dropping down in class after facing the Trail Blazers and Clippers. The Kings aren't playing well either losing five of their last seven games. Just two games ago on this past Tuesday, the Suns defeated the Kings, 115-111. The Hornets met the Suns in Phoenix three games ago this past Sunday and beat the Suns, 119-113. Charlotte has the best player in Kemba Walker. The Hornets also have covered in four of their last five visits to Sacramento.
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| 01-12-19 | St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
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| 01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 227.5 | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
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This total is inflated based on the matchup these two teams had two days ago. The Spurs beat the Thunder in double overtime, 154-147. That was a wild game. This one shouldn't be. Both teams are above average defensive clubs. The Thunder are in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Oklahoma City ranks eighth in scoring defense and is in the top five in shooting percentage defense. San Antonio gives up the 11th fewest points per game in the league. Until that wild Thursday game, the Spurs had not allowed more than 111 points in 16 straight games. Even with that crazy double overtime game, the Under sitll has cashed six of the past eight times in this series. The Under also has won the last four times these teams have played in Oklahoma City.
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| 01-12-19 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
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NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
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| 01-11-19 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | 113-141 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
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Cleveland ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Cavaliers are surrendering 122.7 points in their last seven games and just lost their best shot-blocker, Larry Nance. The Cavaliers, though, just put up 124 points against the Pelicans. The Pelicans are a bad defensive team. But Indiana isn't. The Pacers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA. The Cavaliers scored 115 against them in the game before New Orleans. The Rockets have permitted at least 101 points during their last 11 games. They are giving up an average of 114.4 points in their last four games.
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| 01-11-19 | Bucks v. Wizards +7 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
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Sometimes facts lead to misperceptions. There are two examples of this in the Bucks-Wizards Friday matchup. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA. John Wall is a great player being a five-time All-Star. Both sentences are facts. However ... there is more than meets the eye in both statements. Knowing them should help lead to a profitable investment by backing the Wizards. The Bucks deserve huge kudos for compiling the top winning percentage in the league through 40 games. But the Bucks have put together their outstanding record mainly at home. They are 10-7 on the road, 8-8 ATS. So spread-wise, Milwaukee is merely an average away club. The Bucks also are in a flat spot after a huge nationally televised road win against the Rockets and James Harden on Wednesday. Proving themselves on national TV is a big deal to the small market Bucks. This game is far from the madding crowd. It's a low-key affair against a 17-25 Washington team that is minus its best player, Wall. Guess what, though? You can make a strong case Washington is better team-wise without Wall. Remember when Wall was injured last season? The Wizards proceeded to play their best ball winning 11 of 14 games. That streak pushed them into the playoffs. It could happen again this season. The Wizards are 4-3 and 5-2 ATS since Wall was lost for the season. There is more to the Wizards than Wall. Otto Porter Jr. has gotten the rust off since returning from a quad injury. Bradley Beal is a top-scoring backcourt threat. Trevor Ariza is an underrated two-way pro. Wall's injury has also brought more prominence to unsung guard Tomas Satoransky and center Thomas Bryant. Washington has won and covered each of its last three home games. The Wizards are below-the-radar and should be highly motivated to prove themselves in this spot. Please note that since I released this game late Thursday night, the line has dropped quite a bit as word is out that Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful and Eric Bledsoe is questionable. I would not make this a max unit wager at the current number. However, the handicap still holds. The Wizards are very live here to beat the Bucks straight-up if Milwaukee doesn't have Antetokounmpo. |
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| 01-10-19 | Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
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Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here. |
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| 01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -6 | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
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The Clippers are fat and happy after consecutive home wins against Orlando and Charlotte. Now, though, they have to step up on the road against the Nuggets, who are in revenge mode and have been playing well all season. I don't see it happening for the Clippers. The Nuggets are 6-1 in their last seven games and have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They have the far superior defense and an edge up front with Nikola Jokic. |
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| 01-10-19 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5 | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
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UCLA isn't a particularly good defensive team. Oregon is, or make that was. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage, but that is going to change. The Ducks lost their defensive presence with injuries to 7-foot-2 Bol Bol and 6-foot-8 Kenny Wooten. Oregon just surrendered 77 points to Oregon State in its last game. That was nearly four points more than the Beavers were averaging on the season. The Bruins are a different team, too, because of the coaching change from Steve Alford to interim coach Murry Bartow. In two games under Bartow, the Bruins scored 92 points versus Stanford and 98 against Cal. They are much more up-tempo under Bartow than they were under Alford, who is a Bobby Knight disciple.
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| 01-10-19 | Michigan -9 v. Illinois | 79-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
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Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games. |
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| 01-09-19 | Pistons v. Lakers -117 | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
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No, LeBron James isn't back. But Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are. Given those two along with Lonzo Ball and playing at home following a confidence-building road victory against the Mavericks this past Monday gives a buy sign to the Lakers. The Lakers' 107-97 road win against the Mavericks is impressive. Dallas was 15-3 at home entering that game. The Pistons are back in lottery territory following a strong start to the season. They are 4-14 in their last 18 games. Detroit has lost and failed to cover in four of its past five road matchups. The Pistons' lone away victory during this span came against the struggling Grizzlies, who are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games. The Lakers have covered seven of the last eight times they have hosted the Pistons.
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| 01-09-19 | Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134 | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
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Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game. |
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| 01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | 119-117 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
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Sometimes a team gets a psychological lift in their first game following a coaching change. I don't see that happening, though, with the Timberwolves in this matchup after they fired Tom Thibodeau on Sunday. Oklahoma City is in revenge mode from a home loss to Minnesota just two weeks ago. That was a rare road victory for the Timberwolves, who have played far worse away from Target Center going 5-15 SU, 8-12 in their away games. The Thunder are one of the top-seven teams in the NBA. The Timberwolves are a below .500 club. Motivation is key for Oklahoma City, which has a winning spread mark at home and is 5-2 ATS the past seven times laying 7 or more points. The Thunder lost at home to the Wizards in embarrassing fashion, 116-98, this past Sunday getting dominated on the boards and defense. Those are two of the Thunder's strong areas. The Thunder went into that matchup against the Wizards fat and happy returning home after going 2-0 on a West Coast trip beating the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The Thunder are too professional and have too much superstar talent with Russell Westbrook and Paul George to suffer a second straight home loss to an inferior opponent especially with revenge motivation. The Timberwolves may not have their full focus as the firing of Thibodeau was a surprise coming after the team had blown out the Lakers at home for their second win in a row. Thibodeau not only was the head coach, but also president of basketball operations. It's a distracting and unexpected move. Now the Timberwolves have to play a far superior opponent on the road just two days later. Untested 32-year-old Ryan Saunders is the Timberwolves' interim coach. I don't see him enjoying success in this spot.
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| 01-08-19 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
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Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
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| 01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -117 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
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Kudos to the Nuggets. It's nearly halfway through the NBA regular season and Denver has the best record in the Western Conference. The Rockets, though, should be ready for the Nuggets at home. Houston has picked up its pace since a slow beginning and is playing extremely well despite being without Chris Paul. The Rockets are 11-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games. They just lost, though, on the road to the Trail Blazers this past Saturday, Among the Rockets' wins during this current 13-game span have been against the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers when they had LeBron James and Trail Blazers. Houston is 8-0-1 ATS in its past nine home games. Denver has won five in a row. But its last four victories have all come against below .500 teams - Suns, Knicks, Kings and Hornets. Those teams are a combined 44 games under .500. The Nuggets have failed to cover five of their last six road games. They have a losing road spread mark on the season.
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| 01-05-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5 | 72-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
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Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
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| 01-04-19 | Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan | 74-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
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Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
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| 01-04-19 | Wizards v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
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Quietly Miami has been on a monster point spread run covering 13 of its last 16 games. Look for the Heat to cover another game as this matchup against the Wizards sets up well for them. Washington has been terrible on the road lately losing and failing to cover its past seven away matchups. The Wizards have lost by at least seven points in each of their past seven road defeats. This includes lopsided losses to teams much worse than the Heat, including falling to the Pistons by 16 points and 15 points to the Cavaliers. The Heat should dominate the paint against the Wizards, who are a weak rebounding team and rank second-to-last in scoring defense. The Wizards are minus John Wall and thin up front with Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris out. This has drained Washington's bench. The Heat, though, just got Dion Waiters back from injury boosting their rotation. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Bradley Beal with Wall out. Miami ranks third in defensive field goal percentage and give up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league.
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| 01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -120 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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The Spurs have covered 75 percent of their last 32 home games. They have defeated the Raptors nine consecutive times at AT&T Center going 6-2-1 ATS. San Antonio is playing well going 10-3 in its last 13 games, while the Raptors are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS during their past five road games. So it's not too much to ask the Spurs to win this matchup especially considering how bad the Raptors have looked recently on the road. Toronto's last four road defeats have been by 29 points to the Magic, 25 to the 76ers, nine to the Nuggets and six to the Trail Blazers. The Spurs are going to be super motivated, too, for this matchup since it marks the return of Kawhi Leonard to San Antonio. There is bad blood between the Spurs and Leonard following last season when Leonard played in only nine games for San Antonio. The Raptors face San Antonio short-handed without point guard Kyle Lowery, their second-best player, and center Jonas Valanciunas. Lowery has a back injury that has kept him out of eight of the past nine games while Valanciunas isn't expected back for another four weeks due to a thumb injury.
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| 01-02-19 | Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 69-55 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
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Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
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| 01-02-19 | Heat -6 v. Cavs | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
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Just two games ago, Miami hosted Cleveland. Final score: Heat 118, Cavaliers 94. While I don't expect the Heat to bury the Cavaliers on the road by that much in this short turnaround, I do expect them to cover this spread. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last nine games, including the past six. They have failed to reach 100 points in five of their last seven games. The Heat rank third in defensvie field goal percentage and seventh in fewest points allowed. Miami is on a nice point spread run covering 12 of its last 15 games. The Heat are 8-1 ATS during their past nine road matchups. The Heat, though, shouldn't lack motivation or being overconfident having lost their last game. That was at home to Minnesota, 113-104, this past Sunday. It was the most points Miami had allowed in its last 15 games. Cleveland is the third-lowest scoring team in the NBA. The Cavaliers are playing at home for the first time in more than a week having concluded a three-game road trip this past Saturday. They could be rusty and unfocused after had a long holiday break following their last game. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS on three or more days rest. The Cavaliers have permitted 110 or more points in five of their last six games.
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| 01-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 116-122 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
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Down point guard Kyle Lowry and center Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors have hit a scoring drought. They scored only 87 points against the Magic and 95 points versus the Bulls in their last two games. Now Toronto faces Utah, which has a far better defense than the Magic and Bulls. The Jazz give up the fifth-fewest points in the league. Utah has held five of its past nine opponents to 97 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in eight of Utah's last nine games and five of the Jazz's past six road games. The Jazz rank 24th in scoring. Toronto ranks eighth in defense. The Jazz are reliant on second-year man Donovan Mitchell, who is having a down year so far shooting .41.1 percent from the floor after connecting on 43.7 of his shots last season. Playing on New Year's Day is a plus for the Under, too, following New Year's Eve. |
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| 12-31-18 | Hawks v. Pacers -11.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
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Indiana has the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Atlanta has the worst defense in the league. The difference is the Pacers surrendering an average of 17 fewer points per game than the Hawks. Throw in a strong situational spot favoring Indiana and the possibility the Hawks could be without maybe their third best player, Kent Bazemore, and this spread doesn't seem so high. The Pacers are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference at 24-12. They are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have won four in a row. The Pacers last played on Friday. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing on two days rest. Indiana doesn't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Hawks are in action for the fourth time in six days and third in four days. This is an early start time, too, which does the Hawks no favors almost making this a back-to-back game. Atlanta enters the matchup fat and happy with consecutive victories, including upsetting the Timerwolves in overtime as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog. Atlanta may be without Bazemore. The shooting guard is questionable with an ankle injury.
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| 12-30-18 | Kings v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
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LeBron James isn't likely to play because of a groin injury suffered on Christmas Day. But the Lakers are going to go all out here after losing their first two games without James. The first game the Lakers played without James was this past Thursday against the Kings on the road. The Lakers built a 15-point lead with 6:44 left in the game. The Kings came all the way back to win, 117-116, with Bogdan Bogdanovic sinking a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Sacramento the victory. Stunned by that loss, the Lakers were buried the next day by the Clippers. Now the Lakers have had a full day to regroup. LA doesn't lack talent without James. They have Brandom Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Kevin Kuzma. The Kings are an improved team, but their young core isn't as talented as the Lakers. The Lakers are home, highly motivated and getting points against a team they are least the equal of without James.
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| 12-29-18 | Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134 | 62-50 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
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These same two teams met just two weeks ago and Oregon won, 66-54, at home for a combined total of 120. That stayed well under the 133 lined total. Oregon didn't have its leading scorer, center Bol Bol, for that game. He's out for this game, too. The Ducks average 61 points without him. Oregon is a strong under team. The Ducks rank 35th defensively and have slowed their pace. The under has cashed in five of their past six games. Boise State is a better defensive team than an offensive one. The Broncos don't push pace either. These teams are familar with each other. So I see another low-scoring game.
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| 12-29-18 | Rockets -125 v. Pelicans | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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The Rockets are back playing like the Rockets again. Houston is playing better than anyone winning eight of its last nine. The Rockets have knocked off tough opponents, too, during this span beating the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Grizzlies, Lakers and Trail Blazers. Houston's lone defeat in this time frame came on the road to the Heat when the Rockets were playing without rest. Now the Rockets draw the Pelicans without rest. New Orleans was super extended in getting past the pesky Mavericks, 114-112, on Friday in a revenge spot. Dallas had defeated New Orleans on Wednesday. Anthony Davis had a huge game on Friday with 48 points and 17 rebounds. He also played nearly 43 minutes. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days. The Pelicans are one of the weakest defensive teams in the league ranking 26th. James Harden is on fire averaging 40.5 points during the last eight games. Houston is averaging 120 points in its last two games. The Rockets aren't going to lack motivation either. The Pelicans embarrassed them early in the season with a 131-112 home win on Houston's opening night.
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| 12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
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The Hornets just have to wait two days to get redemption. That's how long their last game was, which happened to be a 134-132 overtime road loss to the Nets on Wednesday. The Hornets blew an eight-point lead during the final three-plus minutes of regulation. The Nets are improved and playing well. But Charlotte is the better team and has the best player, Kemba Walker. The Nets slowed down Walker in the fourth quarter using a form of box-and-one that might have caught the Hornets off guard. Charlotte will be better prepared this time around. This back-and-back series has a playoff and zig-and-zag feel to it. So I want the Hornets going for me here.
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| 12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
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The Nuggets have been a major surprise opening the season with 21 wins in their first 31 games. A regression is coming, though, for Denver. That was evident in its last game, a 132-111 blowout loss to the Clippers on the road this past Saturday. That was Denver's worst loss of the season. Denver is down three starters with Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton all out. Big man Millsap is an underrated loss. The Clippers dominated the paint against the Nuggets scoring 80 points down low while shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field. The Clippers also outrebounded the Nuggets by 21 boards. The Spurs are coming on after a slow start. They are 7-2 in their last nine games with five of those victories coming by 25 or more points. LaMarcus Aldridge can have a big game with Millsap out. San Antonio has covered 73 percent of its past 30 home games.
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| 12-25-18 | Indiana State +12 v. TCU | 69-83 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
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I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
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| 12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
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Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
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| 12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
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This is a circle-the-wagons home game for Boston following three losses in a row. The Celtics held a long meeting following their Friday night home loss to the Bucks. I see the Celtics rebounding in a big way against the Hornets, who are not a good road team. The Celtics have covered 74 percent of their last 31 home games. Charlotte is 4-8 on the road. The Hornets have suffered road losses to the Hawks and Cavaliers. This marks their first away game since Dec. 9. The Celtics swept the Hornets at home during each of the last two seasons going 3-0-1 ATS in those games.
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| 12-22-18 | Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5 | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
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Note this game is being played at a neutral site - the Orleans Arena is Las Vegas. Neutral sites often are plus for the Under since neither team is familar with the gym and basket. New Mexico State and Drake both are huge Under teams when playing at neutral sites. The Aggies have gone Under in 69 percent of their last 43 neutral site games. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time in Drake's past 40 neutral site matchups. New Mexico State ranks 66th defensively. The Aggies held Kansas to 63 points. That was 18 points below the Jayhawks' scoring average. Drake is from the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have held three of their last four opponents to 66 or fewer points. New Mexico State is not a good free throw shooting team.
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| 12-22-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers -110 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Clippers are back to winning with the return of key sixth man Lou Williams. Williams helped the Clippers beat the Mavericks, 125-121, at home on Thursday to halt a four-game losing streak. Williams had missed the previous four games - all of which were losses - because of a hamstring injury. The buy sign is on for me here against the Nuggets. Denver is crippled and rusty. The Nuggets have lost their last two road games, falling to the Hawks and Hornets. Denver had to go into overtime to beat the Magic in the road game before those two. All three of those teams are worse than the Clippers. Denver last was in action on Tuesday. This is too long of a layoff between games. The Nuggets are without three opening-night starters, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton.
Saturday Free Play Heat plus 3 hosting Bucks Bad matchup, bad timing. Look for those factors to do in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a huge road victory against the Celtics Friday night. The Bucks hardly had time to celebrate before flying into South Florida to take on the Heat. Not only is Milwaukee playing without rest, but it's the Bucks' third game in four nights and fourth game in six days all at different venues. Miami is a tough opponent for the Bucks. Not only are the Heat playing their best ball with three straight victories - holding the Grizzlies, Pelicans and Rockets all below 100 points in those wins - but they have the defense, offensive rebounding and slowdown style to frustrate the high-scoring Bucks. Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 games, its best stretch. So it's not a fluke the Heat have defeated Milwaukee five times in a row. The Heat held the Bucks to just 88.3 points in sweeping the three-game series last season. The Bucks are flash and offense with today's new kind of superstar in multi-talented Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat are old-school slowing tempo with a powerful commitment to defense. This clash in styles has worked in Miami's favor. The oddsmaker has no choice but to open the Bucks a road favorite. Milwauklee is 2-5-1 ATS in that role the past eight times. |
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| 12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
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The Spurs are playing better going 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven games. The Spurs are a strong home team - 21-8 ATS in their past 29 home contests. Minnesota is 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS on the road. Minnesota is 1-5 in its last six games. The Timberwolves are below average defensively and rank 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Spurs are No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage and in free throw percentage. The Spurs won't lack motivation as this is a revenge spot for them having suffered one of their worst defeats in the Gregg Popovich era, losing 128-89 in Minnesota on Nov. 28.
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| 12-20-18 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4 | 66-67 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
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Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
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| 12-20-18 | James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5 | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
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Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand. |
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| 12-19-18 | Warriors -2.5 v. Jazz | 103-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
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I understand that Utah has been dealt a bad early season hand by the NBA schedulemakers. The Jazz have endured a brutal, road-heavy schedule. But they are 1-4 in their last five games, lack consistency, rank 26th in 3-point shooting and are not a top-three defense anymore. So I can't see them defeating a healthy Warriors team that is coming on since Stephen Curry returned to the lineup. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson all are playing well. Golden State is 6-2 in its last eight games. When focused, the Warriors can destroy any opponent. Golden State doesn't play again until Saturday. So that focus, concentration and effort should all be there.
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| 12-19-18 | Auburn v. NC State OVER 157 | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
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NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
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| 12-18-18 | Lakers -129 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -129 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
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The Nets are playing their best ball winning their last five games. But I see that streak ending here. There is zero chance now of the Lakers taking Brooklyn lightly especially after losing in embarrassing fashion to the Wizards, 128-110, this past Sunday. LeBron James was held to a season-low 13 points in that defeat. Look for the Lakers to be much more focused. They are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The prideful James should rebound with a strong game. The Nets are a bottom-10 defensive team. LA has by far the better talent and is 12-3-3 ATS during its past 18 visits to Brooklyn.
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| 12-16-18 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | 120-113 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
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Quitely, below the radar, Dallas has rattled off 11 straight home victories, going 10-1 ATS in these games. The Mavericks have beaten teams much better than the Kings during this home win streak such as the Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Rockets and Clippers. It should be an emotional game, too, for the Mavericks as Dirk Nowitzki is set to make his season debut. The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. However, Sacramento is off a hard-played 130-125 home loss to the Warriors from Friday night. The Kings nearly upset the Warriors in their first meeting against them this season losing, 117-116, on the road. The Kings were blown out by the Jazz, 133-112, in their next game following that loss to the Warriors. Dallas lost in its last game this past Thursday, falling to lowly Phoenix on the road, 99-89, as six-point favorites. The Mavericks should come back strong after that humiliation. They are 6-0 ATS when having two or more days rest between games.
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| 12-15-18 | Lakers -127 v. Hornets | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
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The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Rockets. That was on Thursday. The Hornets suffered a 126-124 home loss to the lowly Knicks Friday night. Charlotte's five starters are logged more than 36 minutes. The Hornets have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 games versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets live-and-die with Kemba Walker and he logged more than 40 minutes last night. LeBron James gets up for this opponent, too. So expect an easy Lakers victory. The Lakers have been playing well until that Rockets loss winning six of their past seven leading into that game.
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| 12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147 | 78-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
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Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent. Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in. |
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| 12-14-18 | Hawks +13 v. Celtics | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
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The Celtics have won seven in a row, including getting past the Wizards on the road Wednesday despite missing Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Jaylon Brown. Now the Celtics draw the lowly Hawks at home with a road game looming against the Pistons on Saturday. Not only is the backdoor open for the Hawks, but so is the possibility they can hang in and make this a game. Horford remains out. Hayward and Brown are questionable. Both are ill. The Celtics have no need to rush either back given their depth and not taking the Hawks as a serious threat. Atlanta has covered its last two games. The Hawks upset the Nuggets at home and lost by seven points as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Mavericks. The Hawks are averaging 112.7 points in their last seven games if you toss out a 94-point performance they had against the Hornets. The 112.7-point average would rank 10th best if computed during the entire season. The Celtics have not been good in this type of role failing to cover 12 of the past 15 times when laying more than eight points.
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| 12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs -3 | 87-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
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I'm going to poke my toe in the water and test out if the buy sign is on for the Spurs. Indications are it is, at least for this matchup. San Antonio has won and covered its past three games, all at home. The Spurs draw the Clippers playing for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. The Clippers have cooled off losing four of their last six games. They just got waxed, 123-99, at home by the Raptors on Tuesday. Toronto didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game either. The Clippers didn't have their star sixth man, Lou Williams, in that game due to a hamstring injury. It's an added plus if Williams can't play tonight.
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| 12-12-18 | Wolves -125 v. Kings | Top | 130-141 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
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The Timberwolves are playing better defense and have improved team chemistry. The result has been a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine games. Minnesota, though, has dropped the first two games of its current four-game road swing. Those losses occurred to the Warriors and Trail Blazers. Now the Timberwolves step down in class visting the Kings. Sacramento is much improved from last season. But the Timberwolves have more experience and better talent, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns shaking off his early season poor performances. The spot is bad for the Kings. It is their first game back from a four-game road swing that concluded Monday night in Chicago. Sacramento buried the Bulls in that game, while winning three of the four away games during the trip. The Kings are fat and happy. Their focus could be off, too, since they last played at home 11 days ago. Sacramento is 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a road trip of seven or more days. Minnesota also has revenge for a 121-110 road loss to the Kings on Nov. 9 when it still had Jimmy Butler. Since that defeat, the Timberwolves have gone 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on the road.
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| 12-12-18 | San Diego v. Oregon UNDER 143 | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
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San Diego is strong defensively. No surprise there. The Toreros rank 52nd in fewest points allow and have the 24th-best defense against 3-pointers. Their last three games have all gone Under. The Toreros understand their calling card is defense. So they don't look to run or push pace. Excellent style for an Under. San Diego should be even more methodical in its shot selection knowing Oregon ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. The question is will Oregon cooperate by not playing up-tempo? Judging by the Ducks' last two games and the switches they made they will. Oregon's pace was more deliberate in its last game, an 84-61 home win against Nebraska-Omaha that stayed under the total. Freshman Louis King made his season debut in that game after being out all season with a knee injury. He's 6-foot-9 and teamed well with 7-2 center Bol Bol to provide a strong rebounding and shot-blocking presence. The Ducks lost 65-61 on the road to Houston in their previous game before Nebraska-Omaha. That game, too, went well Under the total.
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| 12-12-18 | Knicks -125 v. Cavs | 106-113 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Knicks are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. That wouldn't mean anything if the Knicks weren't superior to the Cavaliers, but they are especially with the Cavaliers down their best big man, Tristan Thompson. He was having his best season averaging 12 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, but suffered a foot injury in Cleveland's last game and will be sidelined two-to-four weeks. Prior to their last losing streak, the Knicks had defeated the Celtics, Pelicans, Grizzlies and Bucks in a span of 11 days starting from Nov. 21. The Cavaliers can't beat all of those teams. The Knicks should be well rested and prepared. They haven't played since Sunday. The Cavaliers, though, are playing for the fourth time in six days. The Knicks also have played the Cavaliers tough in Cleveland even when the Cavs had LeBron James covering six of the past eight times there.
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| 12-11-18 | Colorado -5 v. New Mexico | 78-75 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
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I have great respect for New Mexico when the Lobos are playing at home like they are here. The Pit is a very difficult venue for road teams. Colorado has been weak on the road the past couple of seasons going 6-20 in true road games. Most of those losses, though, came to Pac-12 schools. The Buffaloes have a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Colorado has a balanced attack that is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.2 points. New Mexico is one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation ranking 351th in points allowed at 86.1 and is 334th in defensive shooting percentage at 48.7. According to the Pomeroy rating, Colorado ranks 60th in the country while New Mexico is 158th. The Buffaloes don't play again until Dec. 22. So they should be focused. The spread is short enough to back the Buffs.
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| 12-10-18 | Heat v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
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The Heat have opened their current six-game road trip with victories against the Suns and Clippers. I don't expect them to make it three wins in a row. The Lakers have been playing better going 5-1 in their last six games with all of their victories coming by eight or more points. The Lakers rolled past the Heat, 113-97, at Miami on Nov. 18. They hold a huge talent edge. Miami could be without two of its key players. Josh Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury and Hassan Whitesite has been out for personal reasons.
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| 12-10-18 | Pelicans v. Celtics -6.5 | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
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After a 10-10 start, the Celtics have begun to get it going winning five in a row. The Celtics draw the Pelicans at home. New Orleans is coming off a rare road victory beating the Pistons, 116-108, on Sunday. New Orleans is 4-10 away from home, 6-8 ATS. The Pelicans are playing without rest and there is the possibility they may be without Anthony Davis. He's dealing with a hip injury. The Pelicans rank 27th defensively. The Celtics surrender nearly 13 fewer points per game than the Pelicans. The Celtics rolled past the Pelicans in New Orleans on Nov. 26. The Pelicans had Anthony Davis in that game. They also made 27 of 29 free throws yet still lost by 17 points.
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| 12-09-18 | Bucks v. Raptors -5.5 | 104-99 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
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The Bucks have cooled off going 9-8 in their last 17 games, including 4-5 on the road, after a 12-1 start. They are off a deflating 105-95 home loss to the Warriors on Friday. That was a season-low in points for Milwaukee and showed the Bucks are not the elite team they were early in the season. The Raptors got caught looking ahead to this matchup gettting upset by the Nets on the road Friday. The Nets nailed the Raptors in a sandwich spot. Toronto had just defeated the 76ers at home and was eagerly awaiting this game. The Raptors have revenge for a 124-109 road loss to the Bucks from Oct. 29 when Kawhi Leonard didn't play. They have the defenders to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in check.
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| 12-08-18 | Montana v. Cal-Irvine -3.5 | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
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Montana has been incredibly accurate from the field this season, but Cal-Irvine is home and is a strong defensive team. The Anteaters are experienced with 94 percent of its offense back. They already have defeated Texas A&M and St. Mary's this season along with a 20-point victory against Idaho. Montana has failed to cover during its past seven road games. The Grizzlies also are 1-5 ATS during their last six nonconference games. |
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| 12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-104 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
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The timing of this matchup should work in the Knicks' favor. New York was buried by Boston, 128-100, on the road Thursday. Knicks coach David Fizdale ripped his team following that embarrassment. New York has been playing better lately, though, going 4-4 while covering six of its last nine games. This is a rivalry matchup, but the Nets are in letdown mode after stunning the Raptors, 106-105, in overtime at home Friday night. That win halted an eight-game Brooklyn losing streak. The Nets have really missed Caris LeVert, who was their leading scorer. Until upsetting Toronto, the Nets were 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.
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| 12-07-18 | Kings -135 v. Cavs | Top | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
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The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA at 12-11. They have young talent and a much improved bench. Sacramento has proven it can take care of business versus lottery teams and play well on the road. ` The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus sub .500 opponents. In their last three road games, the Kings upset the Jazz, lost to the Warriors by one point and buried the Suns by 17 points. The Cavaliers' confidence is way down again after getting smacked, 129-105, by the Warriors at home this past Wednesday. Cleveland is in full rebuild mode now with no more talk of trying to make the playoffs. The Kings have been idle for two days. This is the first of three straight road games for them. They should be ready.
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| 12-06-18 | Drake -130 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
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This is a short price to lay to not only get the superior team, but also get them when they are in a better situation even being the road club. Drake is the 191st best team in the country, according to the highly-respected Pomeroy Ratings. UW-Milwaukee is rated 272nd. The Bulldogs ranks 61st in the nation in scoring at more than 81 points a game. That's 12 points higher per game than UWM. Drake has won and covered its past four games. The Bulldogs have beaten Boise State, North Dakota State and Texas State. The Panthers have lost at home to North Dakota and squeaked past LIU Brooklyn in overtime at home. The Bulldogs have been idle since Saturday. The Panthers just returned from having played two games in Ireland, losing in blowout fashion to Stephen F. Austin and Buffalo.
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| 12-05-18 | San Francisco v. California +6.5 | 79-60 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
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California has a lot youth, but the Golden Bears have five solid scorers and are excellent from 3-point range ranking ninth-best in the country in 3-point accuracy. This is a golden spot for the Golden Bears, who are home and taking on a San Francisco team that played in Ireland this past Saturday. It often takes a week to get rid of jet lag. Given Cal's shooting and the Dons' situation, taking these many points is worthy of an investment.
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| 12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -110 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
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The Clippers have not been a team to fade. They own the second-best ATS mark in the NBA covering 15 of their 23 games. But I'm going to do it here because this spot sets up very well for Memphis. The teams just met on Nov. 23. The Clippers halted the Grizzlies' five-game win streak with a 112-107 overtime win in LA. The Grizzlies blew an 8-point lead with two minutes left. The Grizzlies were hurt by Mike Conley fouling out with 2:51 left in regulation. Now Memphis is home - where it is 10-3 ATS the past 13 times - and has short revenge. The Grizzlies also draw the Clippers in action for the fourth time on the road in six days. Memphis, on the other hand, last played on Sunday. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest.
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| 12-04-18 | St. Peter's v. Clemson UNDER 136 | Top | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
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St. Peter's ranks 318th in the nation in scoring at 66.6. Clemson holds foes to 66 points a game. The last time the Peacocks went up against a major opponent they scored only 49 points versus Auburn. Clemson doesn't push pace like Auburn and other opponents St. Peter's has faced. So tempo should be slow. The Under is 35-15-1 in the Peacocks' past 51 road games for 70 percent!
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| 12-03-18 | Wizards -115 v. Knicks | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
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After a 1-7 start, Washington is slowly starting to get back on track going 7-5 in its last 12 games. The Wizards are coming off their best defensive game of the season, beating the Nets, 102-88, on Saturday. That game was at home. The Wizards are 2-9 on the road. Perhaps it's a leap of faith to support the Wizards away from home, but they are better than the Knicks, are in a good spot and have a strong history against New York. The Knicks are in letdown mode after one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 136-134 home overtime win against the Bucks on Saturday. The Wizards have covered eight of the past 10 versus the Knicks. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times playing at Madison Square Garden. John Wall and Bradley Beal are the two best players on the court. Washington believes it is a playoff team, which it has been the past two seasons. The Knicks are a lottery team. The price is short enough to back the Wizards on the money line. Asking them to flat out just win this game shouldn't be too much.
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| 12-01-18 | James Madison v. Old Dominion UNDER 129.5 | 42-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
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The Under has cashed the last four times between these two teams. Both games were low-scoring last season with Old Dominion winning 69-53 and 62-55. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow tempo. KenPom ranks Old Dominion's pace as the 13th slowest in the nation. James Madison is turnover-prone and can play slow, too. The Dukes' last two final scores are misleading because both games went into overtime.
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| 11-30-18 | Bulls +9.5 v. Pistons | 88-107 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
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The Pistons must be licking their chops as they host Golden State on Saturday. It's the defending world champions lone visit to Detroit. The Warriors are 3-5 in their last eight games. But first up for the Pistons is hosting the lowly Bulls tonight. It's going to be easy for Detroit to overlook Chicago, which has lost eight of its last nine games, including the last four. The Bulls, though, actually have been playing well and should be up for this division matchup and in revenge mode. The Bulls have been sharp in seven of their last eight quarters losing to the Bucks by three points and to the Spurs by one. The Pistons just nipped the Bulls, 118-116, in the first meeting. Detroit has a losing spread record this season when favored.
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| 11-29-18 | Clippers v. Kings +3 | Top | 133-121 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
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The Clippers are out of the gates fast going 13-6. Sacramento has been a surprise, too, going 10-10 while covering 60 percent of their games. LA is just a .500 team on the road. The two teams are similar in that neither has a superstar, but each has scoring depth. The Kings have six players averaging 11 or more points a game. Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox have become of the better backcourt tandems in the league. The Kings entered the middle part of this week ranked seventh in scoring and first in 3-point shooting percentage. There are unique circumstances in this matchup. The spot is ripe for the home underdog Kings. The Clippers played Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-99, at home. The Kings have been idle since Sunday. This is Sacramento's lone scheduled national TV matchup with the game on TNT. The Kings are not slated to play on ESPN nor ABC this season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from the Kings with a rare chance to be on the national stage and show off their vast improvement.
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| 11-28-18 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 227.5 | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
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It may surprise you to know that the Clippers are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. LA doesn't have a superstar. What the Clippers do have are a number of underrated offensive players. This lists includes Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, who is showing signs of having a breakout season averaging 20.9 points in his past seven games. The Clippers are a below average defensive team. Good offense plus bad defense often spells Over. That's what the Clippers are doing going above the total in eight of their past nine games. The Clippers should have another major scoring game on Wednesday facing the Suns, who entered this week ranked 29th in giving up points per 100 possessions and also were second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Phoenix permitted the Bulls, who were without Larui Markkanen and Kris Dunn, to shoot nearly 60 percent from the floor while scoring 124 points one week ago. But here's the kicker: The Suns commit the most fouls per game in the league. The Clippers are fourth in free throw percentage and were leading the league in free-throw makes.
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| 11-27-18 | Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
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Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
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| 11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors -8 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
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It's an added bonus if the Warriors get back Draymond Green back for this game. But if not, the Warriors have the firepower with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, along with a good situational spot, to roll past Orlando. The Magic are coming off a highly satisfying and intense upset of the Lakers beating them 108-104 on Sunday. In their previous road game, the Magic lost to Denver by 25 points. The Warriors should be focused. Not only did they see what happened to the Lakers, but they go on a five-game road trip starting Thursday following this game. The Magic are playing for third time in four days and second in two days. Golden State has dominated the series winning the past 10 meetings against the Magic with eight of the victories occurring by eight or more points.
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| 11-25-18 | Jazz -135 v. Kings | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
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I'm taking the Jazz here knowing full well that their leading scorer, Donovan Mitchell, won't play because of a bruised rib. The Jazz have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. I realize that, too. But this is short revenge and the Kings are off a hard-played 117-116 road loss to Golden State last night. Utah has won during its past seven visits to Sacramento. The Jazz actually have been settled down in Sacramento before the Kings since they were idle on Saturday. The Kings shot way above their heads making 52.8 percent of their field goals in beating the Jazz, 119-110, this past Wednesday in Salt Lake City. The Kings have made 47.6 percent of their shots from the floor on the season. That is above average. However, they rank last in free throw percentage and are 27th defensively. The Jazz ranked eighth defensively. There is no chance of them taking the Kings lightly.
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| 11-24-18 | Rockets -10 v. Cavs | 108-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
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No brilliant insight here. I just want the Rockets off a loss and the Cavaliers off a victory after both teams played last night. The Rockets lost 116-111 in overtime to the Pistons while the Cavaliers stunned the 76ers, 121-112, on the road. Aside from underrated center, Clint Capela, the Rockets didn't play well, while Cleveland played perhaps its finest game of the season. I'm projecting the Rockets to play much better and the Cavaliers to get back to playing at their level, which is being one of the worst teams in the NBA. After a slow start, the Rockets have gotten back on track. They are 8-3 in their last 11 games. They followed up their previous loss - a 96-89 defeat to the Spurs - by blowing out the Pacers 115-103 in the following game The Rockets have won by 10 or more points during three of their last four victories. Cleveland's previous victory came four games ago when it upset Charlotte, 113-89. The Cavaliers had to play the very next day and were blown out by the Wizards, 119-95. The Rockets have dominated this series even when the Cavaliers had Lebron James winning 10 of the last 12 meetings.
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| 11-23-18 | Arkansas State v. NC-Wilmington OVER 155.5 | 64-78 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
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Arkansas State has gone Over the total in 11 of its last 13 games. This includes both lined games this season. The Red Wolves are a terrible defensive team, but like to push pace. The same with UNC Wilmington. Fast pace plus bad defense means lot of points.
Wilmington has gone Over the total in 12 of its last 16 non conference games. |
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| 11-23-18 | Wolves -125 v. Nets | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
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If the Timberwolves are serious about making the playoffs again they can't lose to teams such as the Nets. Minnesota defeated Brooklyn, 120-113, at home 11 days ago. The Timberwolves should be able to beat the Nets again with newcomers Robert Covington and Dario Saric more settled. Minnesota's chemistry should be better, too, with the Jimmy Butler cloud disappeared following his trade to the 76ers. The Nets can't match the Timberwolves' talent level and haven't been a good home club failing to cover in 14 of their last 19 games at Barclays Centers. |
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| 11-22-18 | Michigan State v. UCLA UNDER 158 | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
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Look for defense to prevail in this marquee matchup. Both teams have been involved in high scoring games while playing inferior competition. Now each team faces a serious defense. Michigan State piled up 106 points versus Florida Gulf Coast and 101 points to Tennessee Tech. UCLA is 4-0 with victories against Purdue Fort Wayne, Long Beach State, St. Francis and Presbyterian. All of those victories came at home. Now the Bruins are meeting Michigan State at a neutral site, the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
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| 11-21-18 | Suns v. Bulls -125 | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
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Phoenix is 0-7 on the road this season. So it's not too much to ask of the Bulls to just win this game. Chicago should produce a strong effort having been idle the past three days. The Bulls have covered 10 of the last 14 times when playing on three or more days rest. The Suns have some young talent, but they don't produce victories. They are 3-13 on the season and have dropped six of their last seven games. Zach LaVine is Chicago's best player. He's expected to return to the lineup after missing the Bulls' last game due to illness. LaVine should be able to take advantage of a Phoenix defense that ranks 29th in field goal percentage.
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| 11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
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I don't understand this line. Miami should have opened a much higher home favorite. True the Heat aren't playing well. They are a disappointing 6-10 and have lost five of their last six. But the Nets are 7-10 and have lost four of their last five. Brooklyn just recently lost its best player, Caris LeVert. The teams met just six days ago in Brooklyn. The Heat were a two-point road favorite. Now they open only a three-point home favorite. The Heat won that game,. 120-107. Miami is a frustrated team capable of much better. The Heat have the two best players on the court, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. The Nets aren't capable of better. They are not a playoff caliber team. They aren't playing defense either giving up 120 or more points in three of their last four games. |
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| 11-19-18 | Celtics -125 v. Hornets | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
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When they set their mind to it, the Celtics can beat any team in the Eastern Conference. They proved that defeating the Raptors, 123-116, this past Friday. But the Celtics were caught flat on Saturday losing 98-86 to the Jazz at home. Brad Stevens wasn't happy with the effort questioning his team's grit. Now, having been idle on Sunday, I see the Celtics getting up to play the Hornets. The Hornets are just an average Eastern Conference team, one that has fallen short of making the playoffs. Boston has far more depth. The question is motivation. The Celtics should have it. They certainly own the talent edge. Boston has dominated the Hornets, too, beating them the past seven times while going 6-0-1 ATS. The Celtics swept three games from the Hornets last season holding them to an average of 94.7 points.
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| 11-18-18 | Pennsylvania v. Kansas State UNDER 146.5 | 48-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
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This total opened too high based on perception. Kansas State scored 95 points on Eastern Kentucky in its last game two days ago. But Penn is an entirely opposite opponent. The Quakers do not push tempo. The Wildcats are a more deliberate type team, too. |
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| 11-18-18 | Blazers -117 v. Wizards | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
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The Trail Blazers have revenge for 125-124 overtime home loss to the Wizards last month. Portland is the superior team and will be up for this matchup not just for the revenge angle but also having lost two in a row. Portland has reached triple digits in all but one of their first 15 games. The Trail Blazers have the backcourt scoring to take advantage of the Wizards' 29th-ranked defense. Damian Lillard trumps John Wall. Aside from their upset win of the Trail Blazers, the Wizards haven't defeated any foe of distinction. Their victories have been against the Knicks, Heat, Magic and Cavaliers.
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| 11-17-18 | Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | 98-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
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The Celtics got past Toronto, 123-116 in overtime, last night. The Celtics should not be in a letdown mode facing the Jazz, who beat them 123-115 eight days ago in Salt Lake City. Boston will look to clamp down defensively. The Jazz shot an unsustaniable 55.8 percent from the field in that victory. The Celtics did not defend well in that game. Boston also won't be looking to play up-tempo in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz only scored 68 points in a road game two games ago against the Mavericks. Utah's offense needs Donovan Mitchell to have big performances. Mitchell, though, is in a slump shooting just 33.3 percent in his last four games while committing 12 turnovers.
The Celtics rank No. 1 in 3-point defense and third overall in points given up. Look for a complete reversal from the heavy scoring that was done in the first matchup as the Jazz have to rely on their top-10 defense to hang in. |
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| 11-16-18 | Bulls +14.5 v. Bucks | 104-123 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
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You might be interested to know that the highest-scoring player on the court in this game belongs to the Bulls in Zach LaVine. But that's not why I like the Bulls to cover this game. This is a rare nationally televised appearance for the Bulls. They are coming off an embarrassing 111-82 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. Chicago gets up for this division rivalry moreso than the Bucks do. So I envision a focused and big effort coming from the Bulls. The Bulls have covered in four of their last five visits to Milwaukee, including the past three. Before the Boston massacre, the Bulls were playing solid defense holding four of their past five foes to 103 points or fewer.
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| 11-16-18 | Kennesaw State v. Missouri UNDER 133 | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
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Note this game is at a neutral site in the Virgin Islands in a gym unfamilar to both teams, which is a plus for the Under. Kennesaw State hasn't shown anything offensively scoring a combined 101 points versus Kansas State and Samford. The Under has cashed in seven of its last nine games. |
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| 11-15-18 | Spurs +5.5 v. Clippers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
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Perhaps it's a leap of faith, but I see the Spurs showing up in a big way. San Antonio is in full circle the wagons mode having lost four of its last five games. The Spurs were just embarrassed on the road Wednesday getting blown out by the Suns, 116-96. Good teams beat the Suns by 20 points not the other way around. I don't see Gregg Popovich letting his team get humiliated a second straight night especially with this game being televised nationally on TNT. There is no valid excuse for any team losing by 20 points to the Suns - and that includes the Washington Generals. But the Spurs did rest Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol was out. It's a plus if Gasol is able to play. I will take LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan and Gay against the Clippers' top three players. The Clippers are fat and happy by contrast compared to the Spurs. LA is off overtime victories against the Bucks and Warriors. The Clippers have played their past four games without their two best defenders, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. During this span, the Clippers rank 22nd in points given up per 100 possessions. Before those two injuries, the Clippers were fifth in that important defensive category. There's a due factor waiting to kick in against the Clippers - and I say it comes here.
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| 11-14-18 | Heat -124 v. Nets | Top | 120-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
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It should not be too much to ask of Miami to beat Brooklyn especially with the Nets now without Caris LeVert, who is their scoring and steals leader. The Nets have to be in a shocked and down mood after LeVert suffered a gruesome foot injury in the Nets' last game two days ago. The Heat have the three best players on the court in Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson and Goran Dragic. Miami isn't going to lack motivation taking to the road after suffering their third consecutive loss - all at home. The Nets have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 home games. They also are 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15 matchups against the Heat.
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| 11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs +8.5 | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
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It seems almost unfair given how bad they are without LeBron James. But the Cavaliers have been one of the hardest hit team by injuries so far this NBA season. Still, I expect the Cavaliers to give an all-out effort here and keep this game close. Cleveland was embarrassed by Charlotte, 126-94, just 10 days ago. That was at Charlotte. Now the Cavaliers get quick revenge. They have beaten the Hornets the past seven times at home although that was with James. Still, it could be a mental barrier against the Hornets. Charlotte is in action for the third time in five days. The Hornets lost in overtime to the 76ers and then beat the Pistons, 113-103, as 2 1/2-point road chalk. I see this as a flat spot for the Hornets, who while certainly a level higher than Cleveland, are not the type of dominant team that can cover huge spreads on the road. The Cavaliers have veterans. They are not happy with only one win this season. Cleveland has played better of late. Since getting blown out by Charlotte, Cleveland lost by two points on the road to Orlando and by one point on the road to the Bulls in their last game this past Saturday.
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| 11-12-18 | Warriors -130 v. Clippers | 116-121 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
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No Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. So we have a very short line here. No worries. The Warriors still have a star-studded lineup with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson being the two best players on the court and a very strong bench. Quinn Cook has done a fine job filling-in for Curry. Sparked by Cook, the Warrors buried the Nets, 116-100, on Saturday. Golden State has defeated the Clippers 13 of the last 14 times. The Warriors are even more focused minus Curry and Green. I'll back them at this small number.
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| 11-12-18 | Jazz -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
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The Jazz already have double revenge against the Grizzlies. They are 0-2 versus Memphis this season with both losses occurring in Salt Lake City. Utah was missing Donovan Mitchell in one those losses. Mitchell is healthy now and the Jazz are playing better. The Grizzlies are improved this season. But they are not in Utah's class. The Grizzlies have fed on a bunch of bad teams at home beating the Hawks, Suns and Wizards. Memphis is coming off a 112-106 home overtime victory against the 76ers. The Grizzlies caught the 76ers in the second of back-to-back games following Philadelphia's home overtime win against the Hornets. The 76ers ran out of gas in that game.
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