If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas.

I disagree. In my view, the 49ers are the best team in football right now and it's not that close.

These teams have current history. The 49ers have eliminated the Cowboys in the postseason each of the past two seasons winning, 19-12 last season and 23-17 two seasons ago. I don't expect this game to be that close.

The 49ers have been ridiculously dominant at Levi's Stadium covering 15 of their last 17 games there. All but three of those victories came by double-digits. San Francisco has won by at least two TD's in eight of Brock Purdy's nine home starts. Christian McCaffrey would get my MVP vote right now having gained 100 yards from scrimmage and scored at least one TD in all four of the 49ers' games.

The Cowboys are a good team, but not great like the 49ers. Dallas lost to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 28-16. The 49ers just whipped the Cardinals, 35-16, this past Sunday.

The 49ers were 5-for-5 scoring TD's inside the red zone against Arizona. The Cowboys have red zone issues scoring only seven TD's in 19 trips inside the red zone. The Cowboys have fatten up their scoring statistics by getting three TD's from their defense/special teams.

Dallas' brain trust of Brian Scottenheimer and increased input from Mike McCarthy isn't trustworthy against this caliber of defense. The Cowboys were better off when they had Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator last year.

Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been better than perceived. Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, Puka Nacua has put up Cooper Kupp-type numbers and LA's defense has shown solid improvement. Aaron Donald still is around to create havoc.

The Eagles are traveling cross-country following an overtime division win against the Commanders. So this isn't a great spot for them.

Philly's glaring weakness is pass defense. They rank 27th. Stafford and Co. can take advantage of that - and that's not figuring Kupp is going to play. If he does, it's just an added bonus. The Eagles have surrendered 28 points to the Vikings and 31 to the Commanders.

The Rams should be well prepared for this non-division matchup. They just faced the Colts and their mobile QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have Eagles tendencies coached by Shane Steichen, who was the Eagles' offensive coordinator last season.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. 

Since then, the Jaguars lost, 34-30, to Central Michigan as a 16 1/2-point home favorite and lost to James Madison, 31-22, as a 1-point road 'dog. They are 1-4 ATS on the season. 

It's Terry Bowden's third season at UL Monroe. Improvement has shown for the Warhawks under the respected Bowden. UL Monroe upset Army at home in its opener and should have upset Appalachian State as a 14-point home 'dog last week losing, 41-40, on a 54-yard field goal at the gun. 

The Warhawks have covered six of the past seven times they've been a home 'dog under Bowden. They've also played South Alabama tough. 

The Jaguars beat UL Monroe by seven points last season at home, but failed to cover as 17-point favorites. The Warhawks upset the Jaguars, 41-31, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs two seasons ago.

Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season.

I like the unbeaten 13th-ranked Cougars to beat UCLA straight-up so getting points is a bonus.

I trust Washington State QB Cameron Ward, who has completed nearly 75 percent of his throws for 1,390 yards and 13 TD's with no interceptions. UCLA QB Dante Moore can't match Ward at this early stage of his college career being a freshman and inconsistent.

Utah held the Bruins to just seven points in a 14-7 win in UCLA's last game. Moore was only 15-of-35 passing in that game. The Bruins were 3-for-17 on third down.

The Cougars have proven themselves with upset wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State.

To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game.

These numbers include a surprising performance against Jacksonville State last Thursday when the Bearkats almost upset the Gamecocks losing, 35-28, in overtime.

But while the Bearkats are off a tough overtime loss, Liberty was idle last week. The Flames are 4-0 SU and ATS. They are prime contenders to win Conference USA. They've produced 33 or more points in each of their games. All of their victories have been by double-digits. QB Kaidon Salter has an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's only been sacked three times.

Sam Houston State ranks 116th in run defense. So Liberty should have its way both on the ground and through the air.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. 

Surprised? Don't be. Middle Tennessee State is the right side. 

The Blue Raiders have played a far tougher schedule than Jacksonville State going against Alabama, Missouri - who they lost to by just four points on the road - Colorado State and Western Kentucky. 

Middle Tennessee State desperately needs to win this home game to even its Conference USA record to 1-1. 

Jacksonville State had to come from two touchdowns behind to defeat winless Sam Houston State in overtime, 35-28. Sam Houston State entered that matchup as the most punchless team in the nation having scored 10 points during its first three games. 

That game was played this past Thursday. So the Gamecocks will be playing a second consecutive road game within the span of six days. 

No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game.

Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection.

The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy.

I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. 

The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. 

Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. 

The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. 

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. 

Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that.

Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach.

I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season.

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans.

The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week.

But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad.

Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers.

Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters.

The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread.

Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin.

Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020.

The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season.

No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara.

Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite.

But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas.

I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner.

Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.

The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State.

I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground.

Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season.

Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game.

The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation.

Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds.

The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense.

Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do.

The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien.

Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense.

These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium.

Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss.

The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage.

Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals.

Elite coach Brian Daboll will be cracking the whip hard after the Giants were humiliated on national television by the Cowboys this past Sunday night. The Giants draw the perfect patsy to retain their identity and get their self-respect back.

All the Giants need to do to cover this number is play a relatively clean game, something the Commanders couldn't do last week when they beat the Cardinals but failed to cover.

Daniel Jones has the most speed he's had at wide receiver and an elite tight end in Darren Waller to go with top-five running back Saquan Barkley.

The Cardinals' pop-gun attack can't compete against that with no threat of a downfield passing attack.

Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010.

It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play.

Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect.

The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season.

Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs.

The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley.

I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators.

Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag.

Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll.

After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack.

When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games.

Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball.

So there's no reason to overthink this matchup.

Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively.

Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers.

Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring.

Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards.

Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line.

Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can.

Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers.

Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential.

The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points.

The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season.

Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective.

The Colts haven't won a season opener in 10 years. Don't look for that streak to end this year against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars established themselves as a Super Bowl contender going 8-3 down the stretch while beating the Chargers in the postseason before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Jacksonville should be even better this season. Trevor Lawrence improves each season and he has an upgrade in weapons with Calvin Ridley, a top-15 wide receiver, and good-looking rookie running back Tank Bisby for short-yardage situations.

I'm not an Anthony Richardson-backer - at least at this embryonic stage of his NFL career. He's not ready to be an NFL starter. He made only 13 starts at Florida and was very inaccurate. His 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 SEC starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars are not stupid. They'll be aware of his mobility and running ability.

Making matters more difficult for Richardson is he doesn't have stud runner Jonathan Taylor to take the pressure off.

The Jaguars enter this season extremely confident. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is ultra-aggressive. He's not the type to let up with a lead, which is what you're looking for in a favorite.

Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here.

Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. 

Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. 

The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. 

The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. 

This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals.

Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons.

Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry.

Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl.

This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day.

Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season.

Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game.

South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up.

So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. 

There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season.

South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense.

The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. 

Double-digit home 'dog with revenge is one reason I like Colorado State. Another is the coach. It took two years for Jay Norvell to build up Nevada.

The Rams went 3-9 in Norvell's first season last year. Expect big improvement this season. Colorado State's defense already is solid. The offense is bolstered having a year in Norvell's system and with nine key transfers.

Washington State may lack focus traveling and hearing about the breakup of the Pac-12 and where its own football future is.

The Cougars also have a vulnerable offensive line that Colorado State can stay competitive against.

I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game.
Miami of Ohio is a legitimate sleeper in the MAC. The RedHawks could have the best defense in their conference. They return 16 starts, including nine on defense.

The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year.
Miami will be satisfied with a victory. I don't see the blowout that this point spread projects.

Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era.

Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent.

Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season.

Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent.

So look for a close game here.

Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season.

San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards.

The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins.

The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided.

Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home.

The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense.

After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click.

Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time.

TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs?

Yes, they are.

Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs.

The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage.

Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game.

The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here.

The 2022 Broncos were a disaster under overmatched first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. But the 2023 Broncos under Jerry Rosburg are much more professional, helped by Russell Wilson finally playing better. Denver would very much like to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in the 62-year-old history of the team.

The Broncos can accomplish that by beating the Chargers.

If the Bengals defeat the Ravens - and they currently are 9 1/2-point home favorites to do so - the Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs rendering this matchup meaningless. The Chargers would know that result since this game goes later in the day while the Ravens-Bengals is an early game.

This is what Chargers coach Brandon Staley said about that scenario, '' Once we find out about that game, we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward ...''

The Chargers signalled their intent not to risk injury to any key starters last week pulling out starters early in the fourth quarter during their 31-10 win against the Rams.

So there's a very good chance that journeyman backup quarterback Chase Daniel could play far more than Justin Herbert.

Even if the Chargers play their starters, I still like the Broncos based on Wilson performing better, being at home and having the superior defense. The Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting the Chargers.

Nathan Peterman. Need I say more? OK, I will. The Bears have lost nine in a row, most in franchise history. Their defense has fallen apart, done in by injuries and trades to the tune of surrendering 34 points a game during their nine-game losing skid.

There's more. The Bears could clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a victory by the Texans against the Colts.

The Vikings are in the playoffs, but they still have incentive. They have a shot at the No. 2 slot. They also want to erase the stench of a 41-17 road loss to the Packers last week. Minnesota hasn't lost two games in a row all season.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said he would go with his starters against the Bears.

That's not the case with Chicago. Justin Fields is being held out so Peterman gets the start. I regard him as one of the worst reserve quarterbacks of all-time. Somehow Peterman has lasted five years in the NFL. He's played in 12 games, completed 52.5 percent with a puny 4.2 yards per pass and a 3-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's a threat to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass.

Minnesota has beaten Chicago during the past three meetings winning by seven or more points each time.

I don't see the justification in the Falcons being favored here. Yes, the 8-8 Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South Division. But they want very much to finish above .500 and build positive momentum for the playoffs. Todd Bowles knows his team has to be sharp. That's why he said he will be playing his starters, including Tom Brady.

Brady is coming off his best game throwing for 432 yards and three TD's against the Panthers, who have a better defense than the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 29th defensively in total yards and 26th in pass defense.

The Falcons aren't very good on offense either. They are averaging 15.2 points in their last five games. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 20 points in seven of its last eight games. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is set to make his fourth NFL start. He's yet to throw a TD pass. He's facing a top-eight defense in the Buccaneers, who also are tough to run against.

Tampa Bay has won the last five games in the series.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

I'm not sold on the untested Jaguars coming through in big games. Tennessee has that big-game experience. Jacksonville doesn't.

The Titans have been in free-fall with six straight losses. They still can win the AFC South, though, with a victory here. The Titans have been decimated with injuries. But they are getting some key players back, including a rested Derrick Henry and two of their best defenders, lineman Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, their top pass rusher.

Tennessee found out the hard way that rookie Malik Willis is not a skilled enough passer. So the Titans are giving Joshua Dobbs a second consecutive start. He makes better decisions than Willis, provides the Titans with at least the threat of a downfield passing game and has Henry to rely upon. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense.

Henry has a strong history against Jacksonville with two 200-yard rushing games and three 100-yard rushing games.

The Titans also have an underrated weapon - punter Ryan Stonehouse. He's averaging 53 yards per punt. The NFL record is 51.4 yards set by Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1940.

Tennessee has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Jacksonville going 8-3 ATS. The Titans have covered in four of their last five visits to Jacksonville.

Green Bay is in must-win mode and playing its best ball, winners of three in a row.

I'm not fooled by the Vikings' 12-3 record. They have only outscored their opponents by five points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings give up the second-most yards in the NFL and rank last in pass defense.

I trust Aaron Rodgers to get this home victory. He'll have both his starting offensive tackles, star left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Yosh Nijman. So Rodgers should have time to throw.

The same can't be said for Kirk Cousins. He's been sacked 11 times during the last two games.

The Packers have been the fourth-best team in the NFL during the last five weeks behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles going by the metric Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures efficiency.

The Eagles should polish off the Saints by more than a TD. They don't need Jalen Hurts to do that. Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup QB's in the league and the Eagles own huge edges in the trenches.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points a game. The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 137 points. Only twice in their last seven games, have the Saints managed more than 17 points.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in sacks. The Eagles have four players with nine or more sacks. They should overwhelm immobile, over-the-hill Andy Dalton, who is minus a couple of offensive line starters.

The Eagles are 6-1 at home. New Orleans is averaging fewer than 11 points a game during its last four road matchups.

The Saints have the fewest takeaways in the NFL with 10 while ranking 29th in turning the ball over. The Eagles have 26 takeaways, second-most in the league.

The Cardinals are bad. But so are the Falcons, losers of six of their last seven games, including four in a row.

David Blough gets the QB start for Arizona. He actually has more experience than Desmond Ridder, who has yet to throw a TD pass in two starts. Blough isn't as bad as Trace McSorley. The Cardinals nearly beat the Buccaneers last week with McSorley under center falling, 19-16, in overtime.

The Cardinals underachieved this season and were hurt by a season-ending injury to Kyler Murray. But they have more talented players than Atlanta and should provide a strong effort for retiring J.J. Watt and Kliff Kingsbury, who is trying to hold on to his coaching job.

I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference.

Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player.

Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. 

I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. 

Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. 

Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. 

No passing game without Ryan Tannehill. No ground game without Derrick Henry. No chance for the Titans.

I'm jumping on board the Titans fade train before this line reaches two touchdowns.

The Titans already have ruled out seven starters, including their three best offensive linemen. They could hold out a number of other banged-up players, too, since this game doesn't mean anything to them. The Titans meet the Jaguars next week with the winner of that matchup capturing the AFC South Division.

Tennessee has lost five in a row, averaging 15.2 points during this span. Dallas is 5-1 in its last six games still alive to win the NFC East Division. Bolstered by the return of Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are averaging an NFL-best 36 points a game during the last 10 weeks. The Titans rank 31st in pass defense.

The Titans have little back-door capability with backup rookie Malik Willis or Joshua Dobbs. The  Cowboys have 49 sacks and a plus-12 turnover ratio.

When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. 

Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart.  

East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. 

The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. 

The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. 

Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. 

Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. 

The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. 

The Bills are going to have to deal with Justin Fields in a real flat spot for them. Buffalo just accomplished what it set out to do during the previous three games - win division games against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. So motivation becomes an issue for Buffalo.

The Bills are a pass-happy team. The weather won't be in their favor. Sustained winds up to 35 mph are in the forecast. There could be snow, too, with temperatures around 10 degrees. 

Thanks to Fields, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing. They are expected to get back Khalil Herbert, one of the more underrated running backs in the league. Fields has accounted for 20 touchdowns in his last nine games. His moves outside of the pocket can't be defended. 

The Bears' defense has been playing hard and has gotten healthier in the secondary. 

Since Week 2, the Bears have lost by more than nine points only twice. 

Turnovers could be a key here. The Bears have turned the ball over nine fewer times than Buffalo. 

Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland weather will be too much for the warm-weathered Saints.

It's going to be bitter cold with the wind chill factor going below zero. That's not suitable for the Saints, who play on carpet inside their temperature-controlled dome.

The Browns should control the trenches. The highly reliable Chubb should be featured. The Saints have permitted at least 148 yards rushing in four of their last six games. They just allowed the Falcons to produce 231 yards on the ground against them.

Deshaun Watson should have less rust making his fourth start of the season while having a better grasp of Cleveland's offense.

The Saints have a key offensive line injury with guard Cesar Ruiz out. They also will be minus their top wideout, Chris Olave.

I see the Browns controlling both lines of scrimmage and thus the game.

Don't be fooled by the Vikings' 11-3 record. They have outscored their opponents by just two points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings are fat and happy having already won their NFC North Division after coming from 33 points down to beat the Colts in overtime last week.

Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said his priority is having a healthy team ready for the playoffs.

The Giants have more urgency. They are off a key, confidence-regaining road win against the Commanders to put them in the playoff hunt.

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can produce enough numbers against a Vikings' defense that ranks last in total yards and 28th in scoring defense to keep the Giants firmly in this game if not pull the outright upset.

No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense.

The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points.

The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points.

Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either.

This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. 

Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. 

Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation.

Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. 

Making a trip to Lambeau Field in December is not fun for the warm-weathered Rams. This is doubly so because the Rams are out of contention at 4-9.

The Packers aren't much better at 5-8, but they still have playoff hope - if they win this game. The elements and injury situation sets up for Green Bay.

The Rams' offense is decimated and their best defender, superstar tackle Aaron Donald, is out for a third straight week because of a high ankle sprain.

There is a 70 percent chance of snow although wind shouldn't factor being in the 5-10 mph range. This is Packers weather and they have the ground game to take advantage with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Aaron Rodgers still is playing at a high level. The Packers also have found their first decent kick returner in many years, Keisean Nixon.

The Rams won the Super Bowl last season yet the Packers beat them at Lambeau Field, 36-28, last year with Rodgers accounting for three scores.

Now the Rams' offense is down to Baker Mayfield, who is on his third team this season, Cam Akers and a host of backup wideouts behind an offensive line full of scrubs.

Everything is in place for the Packers to beat the Rams by more than a touchdown.

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September.

This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees.

The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa.

MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups.

Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack.

OK, no Anthony Richardson for Florida. But still too much respect is being given to Oregon State in this Las Vegas Bowl matchup.

Florida is SEC. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Their only loss by more than 10 points came to Georgia.

Oregon State is Pac-12 and not even prime Pac-12 like USC, UCLA, Utah and Oregon. The Beavers don't have the athletes Florida has.

Jack Miller III is set to make his first college start replacing Richardson, who opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Miller was CJ Stroud's backup at Ohio State before transferring. The Beavers rank 75th in pass defense. Miller can rely on a 16th-ranked ground attack, although dual threat Richardson was responsible for some of the Gators' impressive rushing figures.

Oregon State is going with its own backup quarterback as a starter. Ben Gulbranson replaced injured Chance Nolan at the start of October. The Beavers rank 103rd in passing. They count on freshman running back Damien Martinez. Oregon State won its big game with a 38-34 come-from-behind win against Oregon on Nov. 26. That victory, more than this minor bowl game, is the Beavers' season highlight.

Both teams had the opportunity to play Pac-12 power Utah. The Gators upset the Utes, 29-26, at home while Utah buried Oregon State, 42-16, at home.

Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA.

The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla.

Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt.

The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games.

The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense.

The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league.

The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers.

The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games.

LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers.

Tom Brady versus Brock Purdy. Yeah, I'll take 3 1/2 with that

The 49ers have become the best defense in the NFL. But they may not have their most disruptive force with Nick Bosa questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Buccaneers aren't too shabby defensively either. They rank fifth in scoring defense giving up 18.3 points a game and have the fourth-most sacks.

Tampa Bay is 14-5-2 ATS during its last 21 December games.

The 49ers have won five in a row since losing to the Chiefs. Miami was their only win against a winning club, though, during this span.

The Panthers are trying their hardest to earn trust. They are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Interim coach Steve Wilks has won the locker room in his bid to become permanent head coach. Sam Darnold is the right quarterback choice.

Seattle is in a division sandwich. The Seahawks got past the surprisingly stubborn Rams, 27-23, on a late TD pass from Geno Smith last Sunday and have their biggest game of the season on deck hosting the 49ers next week.

The Seahawks are facing an underrated Carolina defense being severely banged-up at running back. The Panthers have held their last foes to an average of 12.6 points. The Panthers should be rested and ready coming off their bye week.

The Bengals experienced a frightful Halloween losing, 32-13, on the road to the Browns.

Cincinnati is much the superior team. I see the Bengals getting their revenge. Take away that game and the Bengals would be 9-1 SU, 10-ATS. They are playing well. Cleveland isn't.

While Joe Burrow has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games, Deshaun Watson is off a horrendous season debut generating no touchdowns against the Texans. Watson's passer rating was 54.3, a career-worst.

Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season.

The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield.

Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games.

Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance.

Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly.

The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams.

Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. 

Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. 

Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. 

These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. 

The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. 

Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December.

The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. 

Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games.

Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. 

The Rams have no hope this season and Sean McVay knows it. He admits he doesn't have the players to compete anymore. The oddsmaker has not fully grasped this yet.

Minus Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and going with their 11th different offensive line combination, the 3-8 Rams are dead. They have lost five in a row, averaging 14.8 points during this span.

Seattle isn't about to feel sorry for the Rams. The Seahawks have lost two in a row with the latter coming in overtime to the Raiders. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. Geno Smith is playing his finest ball, a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. He's helped the Seahawks average 26.5 points, fourth-best in the league. Seattle has averaged even more during their last four road games producing an average of 37 points.

Losing Donald really hurts the Rams' defense and their offense is broken, forced to use scrubs at quarterbacks and fourth and fifth-string type offensive linemen.

The Commanders are 6-1 in their last seven games. They've gotten a big boost since making a QB switch from toxic Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke. 

But I see the Commanders running out of gas in this divisional matchup. The Giants are getting healthier and are on a mini-bye having last played on Thanksgiving. The Commanders haven't had their bye week yet. 

I like Brian Daboll more than Ron Rivera. I favor Daniel Jones above Heinicke and I certainly like Saquon Barkley far more than any Washington skill position player. Barkley's matchup is enhanced by the Commanders missing highly underrated linebacker Cole Holcomb. Barkley gets another boost with the expected return of good-looking rookie offensive right tackle Evan Neal from a knee injury.

Jones has a history of playing well against Washington. He has nine TD passes against them, which is four more than he has thrown against any other opponent. 

Heinicke has provided an emotional spark to the Commanders. Talent-wise, though, he's not very good. He's short and doesn't have a strong arm. Heinicke has a 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his six starts. 

The Giants have covered five of the last seven times in this series. 

Pittsburgh has yet to win two in a row this season. I don't see it happening here. It's a tough spot for the Steelers traveling on a short week following an upset road victory against the Colts this past Monday. Pittsburgh has failed to cover seven of its last 10 away contests.

Cordarrelle Patterson gives the Falcons the most dynamic skill position player on the field. He's also a star kick returner. I trust veteran Marcus Mariota against the Steelers' 30th-ranked pass defense more than Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett.

Pickett has a passer rating of 73.5 and a 3-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers' top two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, are both banged-up. Harris will be a go, but Warren's status is up in the air.

Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago.

Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16.

Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago.

Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week.

The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week.

When is playing in the Big Ten title game a letdown? The answer is when you're Michigan and you just defeated previously undefeated Ohio State in Columbus last week, 45-23.

Beating the Buckeyes is the highlight of the Wolverines' season. It's going to be difficult for Michigan to turn around a week later and cover this large of a number against a feisty Purdue team that has nothing to lose. 

Purdue has a winning record in 13 games the past five years taking on ranked foes. The Boilermakers catch a huge break that the Wolverines will be without their star running back Blake Corum, who is out with a knee injury. 

The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. 
South Carolina nipped Clemson, 31-30, as a two-touchdown road 'dog last week ending any Tigers' national title hopes. So this ACC championship game means far less to the Tigers now. 

North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. 

There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. 

Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. 

Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him.

The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games.

Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game.

Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury.

Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now.

The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division.

The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal.

It's last stand time now for the Packers. So you know Green Bay is going to give everything here. The Eagles can take a defeat. The Packers can not. 
Philadelphia hasn't played well the last two weeks losing at home to the Commanders and nipping the Colts by one point. The Eagles are 9-1. They are solid more than dominant, however. The only above average teams the Eagles have met were the Cowboys and Vikings. 

It's easy to forget, but just two weeks ago the Packers came back from two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys. A loss last Thursday to the Titans erased much of that big win. The Titans happen to be 7-1 in their last eight games with the lone defeat during this span occurring to the Chiefs in overtime. 

Aaron Rodgers isn't having that bad of a season. He's in the top-six in touchdown passes, passing yards and completions. Rookie Christian Watson has come on to score five touchdowns in the last two games giving Rodgers a much needed deep threat. 

The Eagles' offense isn't as potent minus injured tight end Dallas Goedert. The Packers' defense is way overdue to step up. This is their chance. 

It's a nice bonus for the Jets if Justin Fields can't make the start for the Bears. That would force the Bears to start Trevor Siemian, a career journeyman and noted stiff.

But even if the dynamic Fields plays, I like the Jets to beat the Bears by more than a touchdown now that they've made the quarterback switch from ineffective, morale-killer Zach Wilson to Mike White.

The Jets have close to a Super Bowl-caliber defense. But Wilson has held New York's offense hostage with his inaccuracies, lack of big plays and interceptions. The Jets have good receiving weapons, especially with Corey Davis expected back to join Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims.

White has proven himself. Just ask the Bengals. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in his first start last season leading the Jets to a 34-31 win against the AFC champion Bengals.

The bar is much lower against a Bears defense that has surrendered an average of 35.5 points in their last four games.

As well as Fields has played recently, it hasn't translated to victories because of the Bears' porous defense. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games, losers of four in a row.

The Dolphins went into their bye last week off an impressive 39-17 victory against the Browns. But in their previous six games, the Dolphins lost to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings and beat the Steelers by 6, Lions by 4 and Bears by 3. So I find this spread to be inflated.

Yes, the Dolphins are good this season. But they have flaws. They are not a great team that can cover two touchdowns. Great teams don't squeeze past the Steelers, Lions and Bears by a combined winning margin of 4.3 points.

Miami might not have Raheem Mostert and their kicking game could be in trouble. Jason Sanders ranks fourth-from-the-bottom in field goal percentage accuracy and punter Thomas Morstead has been dealing with illness.

The Texans should get a boost with a quarterback switch from David Mills to Kyle Allen. Mills has been terrible on the road. Allen is a career backup, but he might provide a spark here. He has Dameon Pierce to rely upon. Pierce leads all rookie running backs with 780 yards rushing and 915 scrimmage yards.

The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games.

Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense.

Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games.

This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury.

UNLV's season began highly promising with the Rebels going 4-1. But the Rebels won't be going bowling having lost their past six games, including their last one as an 11-point road favorite against Hawaii. 

Nevada-Reno blew out the Rebels, 51-20, in last year's annual rivalry game at home. This one is at UNLV. The Wolf Pack have gone through a rebuilding season. They aren't good. But this has been an underdog series with the 'dog winning six of the last nine times straight-up. Nevada always gets up for this game more than the Rebels. 

UNLV may win based on a superior ground attack, but Nevada will be giving an all-out effort and should stay within double-digits. The Rebels just aren't strong enough to lay this high of a number. 

This is a monster rivalry game. The question is can Auburn can hang within three touchdowns of the Crimson Tide?

Before this month, I would have said no. Now I say yes seeing how the Tigers have performed under interim coach Carnell Williams. 

Williams starred at Auburn before going on to the NFL playing for the Buccaneers. He has reignited a Tigers program that was dead earlier this season. Auburn is 3-0 ATS since Williams took over losing to Mississippi State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog, edging Texas A&M and rolling past Western Kentucky. 

I trust the Tigers to play hard again for Williams especially in this matchup.

Great expectations were expected of Alabama this season, but the Crimson Tide have been overrated with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season.

The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series.  

Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. 

If you're impressed with the Vikings' 8-2 record don't be. Minnesota has a losing point spread record and has been outscored on the season.

The Vikings were exposed at home by the Cowboys, 40-3, last Sunday. Minnesota lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, in the second quarter of the game due to a concussion. The Cowboys recorded seven sacks on 30 Minnesota dropbacks.

The Patriots have a dominant defense, too, ranking No. 2 in giving up the fewest points per game at 16.9. New England ranks No. 2 to Dallas in sacks with 36. Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Kirk Cousins lacks mobility. He's going to have trouble against New England's pressure, well-coached defense.

New England has a pair of good running backs and receiving depth. The Patriots produced nearly 300 yards of offense against a much superior Jets defense last week in cold weather. Now the Patriots are in a dome facing a banged-up Minnesota secondary.

Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. 

The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. 

The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. 

Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. 

The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs back in Week 2. If it weren't for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Chargers just might have done it before losing, 27-24.

Fast forward nine weeks later. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Chargers are mediocre, heavily weakened by key injuries especially on offense where their best offensive lineman and two top wide receivers have been out.

This, along with a rib injury, has greatly reduced the effectiveness of Justin Herbert. He has just eight TD passes with five interceptions in his last seven games. Herbert doesn't have the weapons to keep up with sizzling Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP frontrunner with 17 TD passes in his last six games. Kansas City is averaging an NFC-best 30 points per game.

The Chargers' five victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons. Those teams are a combined 13-32-1.

The Chargers have little home field in the crowded LA sports market. They are 0-3 ATS during their past three home games with two of those defeats occurring to the Jaguars, 38-10, and 37-23 to the Seahawks.

The Bengals and Joe Burrow were extremely rusty opening week when they met the Steelers. The Bengals lost the turnover battle, 5-0. Yet it took the end of overtime for the Steelers to pull off a 3-point victory and only because Evan McPherson missed an extra point near the end of regulation and a chip shot field goal in overtime because the Bengals had lost their long snapper to an injury during the game.

Now the Bengals enter the rematch rested off their bye and in revenge mode.

Burrow has gotten better pass protection since that Week 1 matchup. The result is Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last seven games.

Ja'Marr Chase remains out. Burrow still, though, has enough weapons and the Bengals get back stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader, who has been out since Week 3 with a knee injury. He's the Bengals' top run defender. That's huge because rookie Kenny Pickett needs a ground game to set up his passing.

Pickett is an overmatched rookie, who has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked way too many times.

Here are three major reasons why I like the Rams here: 1. Coaching mismatch. Sean McVay versus Dennis Allen, who isn't qualified to be a head coach. 2. Quarterback mismatch. Matthew Stafford is miles ahead of Andy Dalton even without Cooper Kupp. 3. Aaron Donald getting to play Godzilla against a battered Saints offensive line likely to be without three starters. 

The Saints are 1-4 in their last five games. Their defense is down their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, their top pass rusher, Cameron Jordan, and their most active linebacker, Pete Werner. 

The Rams have a battered offensive line, too. But McVay is sharp enough to effectively game plan having Stafford to take advantage of the Saints' key injuries. 

The Saints continue to trot out Dalton, who always has been mistake-prone but is even worse now that he's on the downside of his career. New Orleans has the worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus 12. 

UNLV isn't playing as well as it did in September and doesn't deserve to be this high of a road favorite against Hawaii. The Rebels have lost four games in a row. They are 1-4 on the road this season.

Going to Hawaii is a unique trip because it involves a long flight and a two-hour time zone difference, not to mention a completely different atmosphere.

Hawaii has covered five of its last six games. Only once during their last seven games have the Rainbow Warriors been beaten by more than seven points. They are stepping down in class, too, having faced Utah State, Fresno State and Wyoming in their past three games.

Alabama-Birmingham has the right ingredients to spring a major upset here. The Blazers have a good defense, a strong ground attack led by talented DeWayne McBride and catch LSU in a letdown and look-ahead spot.

UAB gives up 21.3 points and ranks 29th in total defense with the 15th-best pass defense. Western Kentucky, which ranks fourth in passing yards, could manage just 128 yards through the air at home against the Blazers.

Only five teams average more running yards per game than UAB. McBride averages nearly seven yards a carry. The Blazers can control the clock by successfully running the ball.

LSU has already clinched its ticket to the SEC championship game against Georgia.

Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas.

The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas.

Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground.

Great job this season by Jim Mora getting Connecticut up to six wins, which makes the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time in seven years. The Huskies reached this point by upsetting previously 19th-ranked Liberty, 36-33, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs this past Saturday.

Connecticut isn't nearly talented enough to cover spreads if it's not playing at a high level. The Huskies could have trouble doing that in an obvious letdown spot.

But it's not just the letdown factor. The Huskies are going to have plenty of problems with Army's triple-option attack. The Black Knights are No. 2 in the country in rushing averaging nearly 300 yards on the ground per game. Connecticut is 73rd in run defense, but even its below average run defense statistics are skewed because of playing passing teams early in the season.

The Huskies don't have the offense to cover for a bad defense. They have failed to break the 21-point barrier in seven of their 11 games. They rank 125th in total yards and 112th in scoring.

Army blasted the Huskies, 52-21, last season. Sure the Huskies are much improved, but given the spot I don't see them staying within single digits.

Florida State is peaking at the right time. The Seminoles have won their last three games - against Syracuse, Miami and Georgia Tech - by an average score of 41-7. Don't expect Louisiana Lafayette to fare any better.

This isn't the Ragin' Cajuns of past years unders Billy Napier, who is at Florida now. Lafayette is coming off a home win against Georgia Southern and finishes back in the Sun Belt Conference against Texas State. If the Ragin Cajuns beat 3-7 Texas State they would become bowl eligible. So this non-conference game doesn't mean much. Lafayette has suffered three road defeats.

The last time they were on the road, the Ragin' Cajuns permitted 39 points to Southern Mississippi in a 15-point loss. That was the most points Southern Mississippi has scored all season against a Division I opponent. That does bode well for Lafayette against the Seminoles' high-caliber offense.