Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week. SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense. Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos. Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks. Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +5 v. Eagles | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Dak Prescott to play in this game. But that shouldn't matter. The Cowboys can upset the Eagles straight-up based on their tremendous defense, the Eagles being banged-up on their offensive line and the quiet efficiency of Cooper Rush. Dan Quinn would be my candidate as the top defensive coordinator in the NFL this season. Dallas has held each of its first five opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have held their last four opponents - Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams - to an average of 13.2 points. The Cowboys have the second-most sacks in the league. The Eagles could be down three offensive line starters due to injuries. Micah Parsons is becoming a dominant defensive force. I think Jalen Hurts is a better fantasy quarterback than real one. Let's see how he fares against an elite defense behind a beat-up offensive line. I question his downfield accuracy. Rush isn't fancy. He can't run like Hurts. All Rush does is win. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in Rush's starts because he smartly plays within himself knowing he has skill position talent around with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the most elusive of any of the Cowboys. The Cowboys have won and covered during their past three games against the Eagles. They beat the Eagles by a combined margin of 45 points in the two games last season. Dallas also has covered in 10 of its past 11 road games. |
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10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants. Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game. Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games. Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets. Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times. I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week. This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers. |
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10-15-22 | San Jose State v. Fresno State +8 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Man a lot can change in a year. Fresno State rolled past San Jose State, 40-9, as a 7-point road favorite last season. Now the Bulldogs find themselves more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Spartans. That's what a four-game losing streak can do to a team. The Bulldogs lost their outstanding QB Jake Haener in their third game against USC. The following week the Bulldogs had to travel East and were stunned by Connecticut. That was a bad loss. But Fresno State still has plenty of talent. The Bulldogs should play better here at home. They have been on the road for their last three games. The season has gone well for 4-1 San Jose State. The Spartans have covered four in a row. That's made the Spartans overpriced here, though, in my view. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa State plays outstanding defense and catches Texas in a sandwich spot. The Longhorns just ended a four-game losing streak to Oklahoma in dominating fashion winning, 49-0. Texas faces unbeaten Oklahoma State next week. Iowa State has a bye next week. So the Cyclones should be going all out. The Cyclones give up the eighth-fewest points in the nation at 13.7. They rank 11th in total defense holding foes to 227.5 yards per game. The Cyclones have been in every game. They are 3-3 with their three defeats coming by an average of 3.6 points. Two of their losses occurred to ranked teams. Look for them to hang in against Texas. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 55 h 29 m | Show | |
After starting slow against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals have gotten back on track rolling past the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens have yet to get on track. Something isn't right with them. They've blown 21 and 17-point leads at home to the Dolphins and Bills. Baltimore is down to its third-string offensive left tackle and its defense has struggled under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. Cincinnati's offensive line has been sharper in protecting Joe Burrow during the past two weeks. During this span, Burrow has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals own a huge wide receiving edge. The Bengals gained a lot of confidence from whipping the Ravens twice last season, 41-17 and 41-21. The Bengals are on extra rest having played on Thursday during Week 4. They are 6-0 ATS as a road 'dog the past six times and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games. |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8.5 | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 5 m | Show | |
The Falcons are the last unbeaten point spread team in the NFL. They won't be after Sunday. I envision the Buccaneers putting together their first complete game of the season. If they do, the Falcons won't stand a chance. Tampa Bay held the Cowboys, Saints and Packers to a combined 27 points. That's an average of nine points. The Buccaneers are going to be in an ornery mood after losing, 41-31, at home to the Chiefs. No weather distractions this week for the Buccaneers. Take away Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons are the easiest offense the Buccaneers have faced so far. Marcus Mariota is averaging just 10 completed passes during his last two games. The Falcons lack the downfield passing attack to come from behind if a backdoor cover is needed. Kyle Pitts is the Falcons' top weapon - and he's underutilized. Getting healthier on the offensive line and Mike Evans back from suspension was a big boost for Tampa Bay's offense last Sunday. The Buccaneers should be in better shape at wide receiver this week, too, giving Tom Brady more options. The Falcons rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.3 points and 25th in total defense allowing 386.3 yards per game. This is the Buccaneers' get-right game. |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -5 | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
The Saints return home from London in circle-the-wagons mode on a three-game losing streak. Andy Dalton is likely to start again, but Alvin Kamara is back to do the heavy lifting, which should ease Dalton's burden. The Seahawks have the second-worst defense in the league behind only the Lions. Kamara should be in line for a huge game against a Seattle defense yielding 5.4 yards per run and five all-purpose TD's. Geno Smith has played better than expected - so far. Keep in mind that his one superstar performance was against the Lions. The Seahawks were crushed when they stepped up in competition against the 49ers. Their other games were against the Broncos, Falcons and Lions. New Orleans gives up the fifth-lowest completion rate and ranks in the top 10 in fewest yards per pass attempt. I see Smith returning to his game-manger, turnover-prone ways that have marked his career. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 4 m | Show |
Teddy Bridgewater replacing injured Tua Tagovailoa is the major story. What is being overlooked, though, is the Jets' offensive tackle situation. The Jets are down to their fourth-string left tackle and they lost starting right tackle Max Mitchell to a knee injury this past Sunday. The Dolphins have the pass rushers to take advantage of the cluster injury problem on the Jets' offensive line. Zach Wilson was terrible as a rookie. He didn't look much better against the Steelers last week in his season debut. As for Bridgewater, he's one of the five best backup QB's in the league. His short yardage accuracy fits Miami's offensive system. He has the two best wide receivers on the field in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. The Jets are giving up 25.3 points a game, which ranks 26th. Miami has dominated the Jets winning eight of the past nine meetings while going 7-1-1 ATS. The Dolphins opened with impressive victories against the Patriots, Ravens and Bills before drawing a tough scheduling break by having had to play last Thursday on the road against the desperate Bengals. But now the Dolphins are on extra rest and Bridgewater has ample preparation time.
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10-08-22 | Clemson v. Boston College +20.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
Clemson may not be as up as it should be for 1-3 Boston College. The Tigers won a wild double overtime victory against Wake Forest, 51-45, two weeks ago on the road and then took care of North Carolina State at home, 30-20, last week. The Tigers are at Florida State next week. So this looms as a flat spot for them. Boston College and its heralded but disappointing QB, Phil Jurkovec, finally showed something last week upsetting Louisville, 34-33, last week as a 13 1/2-point 'dog. The Eagles produced 454 yards of offense. Boston College has a tremendous history of covering games in October going 16-5 ATS (76%) the past 21 times. Clemson had a tough time at home against Boston College the past two years winning, 19-13, as a 15-point favorite last season and prevailing, 34-28, as a 24-point favorite two years ago. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Lions | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game. Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain. The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out. I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown. |
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10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line? The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers. I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense. Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season. Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow. |
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10-01-22 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State -7 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Louisiana-Monroe has played two road games this season. The Warhawks lost by 42 points to Texas and fell to Alabama by 56 points in those away matchups. Arkansas State certainly isn't the caliber of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. But the Red Wolves are more than a touchdown better than Monroe at home. The Red Wolves have covered the past 12 times against the Warhawks. The Warhawks rank 116th in scoring averaging 18.3 points. They are 112th defensively giving up 34.8 points. Yet Monroe could actually be in a letdown spot after upsetting UW-Lafayette, 21-17, at home last Saturday as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. Arkansas State has a huge quarterback edge with James Blackman. The Red Wolves rolled over Grambling, 58-3, at home opening week. They've been on the road for their next three games. Those were all losses. But the Red Wolves had tough competition playing Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion. Now they finally get to play at home again. The Warkhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Look for Arkansas State to make it 13 straight covers against Monroe. |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas made a great coaching hire with Lance Leipold last year. That's becoming even more clear this season as Leipold has the Jayhawks at 4-0 and close to Top-25 status. The Jayhawks have been doing it with offense averaging 47 points behind QB Jalon Daniels. Iowa State is the opposite. The 3-1 Cyclones rely on a stingy defense that ranks 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. This is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones had their Big 12 home conference victory streak snapped at 11 losing to Baylor, 31-24, last Saturday. Now the Cyclones have to travel to Kansas where the Jayhawks are on the verge of a national breakthrough. |
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10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 6 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December. Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too. The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game. The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game. It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries. The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays. The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Colts | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 34 m | Show | |
I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years. Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas. The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season. But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival. Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | Top | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now. But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago. Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up. The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense. |
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09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
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09-24-22 | Toledo v. San Diego State +3 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo. The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State. The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40. I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range. As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett. The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game. The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday. Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury. The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field. Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with. Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups. The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears. The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here. |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show | |
Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play. Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory. The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers. Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC. The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests. Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon. You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State. Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there. Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first. Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games. BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor. But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week. Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent. The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now. The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line. Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out. The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks. Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too. I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time. The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting. |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +8.5 | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 143 h 55 m | Show | |
The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich. Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach. The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game. The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year. |
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09-11-22 | 49ers -7 v. Bears | 10-19 | Loss | -103 | 143 h 44 m | Show | |
Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league. Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively. The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group. Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan -4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup. South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved. Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games. Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings. Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line. Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him. The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +1.5 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Illinois plus 1 1/2 at Indiana The Illini have star running back Chase Brown and a better defense than Indiana. They also have the advantage of having played a game, looking impressive in a 38-6 victory against Wyoming last Saturday. Indiana was 2-10 last season. That included an 0-9 Big Ten season in which the Hoosiers lost by an average of 24.6 points. So I believe the wrong team is favored here. Illinois held Wyoming to six points on 212 total yards. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley was 5-of-20 for 30 passing yards. Indiana has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers didn't play last week and didn't even hold a spring game. They haven't even announced who their starting QB will be trying to replace Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington. The Hoosiers are emphasizing a spread offense since they can't run the ball very well unlike Illinois, who rushed for 260 yards against Wyoming with Brown gaining 151 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Wyoming is bad, but so is Indiana. The Illini's strength is a defense that ranked in the top-30 in giving up the fewest points per game at 21.9. Illinois only permitted four passing TD's in Big Ten games and return three/fourths of its secondary.
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois -10 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
Illinois' defense showed great improvement last year holding opponents to 21.9 points per game after giving up 34.9 points a game in 2020. The Illini ranked 31st in scoring defense - down from 97th of two seasons ago - while holding nine of their 12 opponents below their season scoring average. Look for the Illini to shut down Wyoming, which was hammered with skill position players transferring. The list of lost players includes their two top QB's along with wide receivers Isaiah Neyor and Xazavian Valladay. The point spread key is if Illinois has enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread. I believe they do. The ground game is there with Chase Brown, the best skill position player on either side and one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Illini also upgraded their passing attack with Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse. DeVito isn't a star, but he's more of a downfield threat than what the Illini had. He can effectively pick his spots against a Cowboys secondary that lost all four of their starters. Wyoming hasn't defeated a Power Five program on the road in 17 years. Don't look for that streak to end here. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 110 h 19 m | Show | |
Joe Burrow has elevated the Bengals. Cincinnati is going to be a serious playoff contender for years if Burrow stays in one piece. But this isn't Cincinnati's time. Kansas City is the elite team in the NFL and the Chiefs are peaking at the right time. They also are home. The Bengals have too many holes, including a 26th-ranked secondary, to keep Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons from scoring touchdowns. Mahomes has regained his status as the best QB in football. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last seven games. During their two playoff games against the Steelers and Bills, the Chiefs averaged 42 points and 515 yards. The Bengals' defense isn't nearly at the level of Buffalo's top-ranked unit. This puts tremendous pressure on Burrow to keep up with Mahomes. Burrow has the talent, poise and athleticism to do this. He doesn't have the offensive line, though. The Bengals surrendered nine sacks to the Titans yet still came away with a playoff victory last week because of Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions. Mahomes has committed one turnover during his last five games. Until giving up 36 points to the Bills in last week's overtime shootout, the Chiefs had permitted the fewest points per game since Week 8 allowing 16.1 points. Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone defeat occurring to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Kansas City is 9-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of 14.2 points. I'm not going to step in against the Chiefs. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -114 | 66 h 1 m | Show |
Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night? I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion. Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games. The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents. Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble. The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show | |
Nice season for the Bengals. But it ends in Nashville. The Titans have the right style, playoff experience and improved defense to beat the Bengals by more than a field goal. Cincinnati ended up in a death struggle to get past the Raiders at home last week finishing that game down three defensive linemen. The Bengals definitely won't have defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. These current Bengals have never played in a postseason road game. Tennessee, 7-2 at home this season, is playoff-tested and rested having had a first-round bye. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU and ATS following a bye beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points per game. The extra time should allow Derrick Henry to make his return from a foot injury. Cincinnati has permitted 100 yards rushing in five of its past six games. The Titans averaged 29.1 points a game during Henry's last seven games before he was injured. Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB when defenses have to key on Henry. The Titans' bruising, ball-control style keeps Joe Burrow off the field. But it's not just that. The Titans were one of the most improved defenses during the last 11 games giving up 17.5 points and 300.3 yards per game during this stretch. They have a number of underrated pass rushers and athletic linebackers. I doubt the Bengals' youthful offensive line will hold up at the line of scrimmage to the detriment of Burrow. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs -8.5 | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 110 h 19 m | Show |
I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes. The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury. Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower. The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line. The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years. I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season. The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup. Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
I find this line inflated because the Dolphins are out of playoff contention and the Patriots are off a 40-point victory against the Jaguars and are alive to win the AFC East. The Dolphins, though, aren't going to roll over with a chance to finish above .500, beat their long-time division rival and have a number of players reach performance bonus incentives. The Patriots won't win the division with a victory here if the Bills beat the Jets. The Patriots know the Bills aren't losing to the Jets. Until giving up 34 points to the Titans last week on a short week and in a flat spot, Miam had held its previous seven opponents to an average of 11.7 points. Even in the loss to the Titans, the Dolphins held them to 308 total yards. The Patriots don't have an explosive offense when going against a good defense. Bill Belichick doesn't have a good track record either when playing in Miami during December and January going 2-7 SU and ATS the past nine times. Playing in high 70-degree heat in January is not what the Patriots are used to. |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
This one is about mindset and numbers. The Cardinals are alive for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. All it would take is for them to win here and for the Rams to lose to the 49ers for the sixth time in a row. Arizona ranks in the top 11 in nearly all of the major statistical categories, including giving up the fifth-fewest points and being ranked eighth in total offense. Seattle won't be making the postseason for only the second time in the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have below average offensive numbers and rank 30th in total defense and 31st in pass defense. And this was padding their statistics with a 51-29 victory against the Lions last week. The Seahawks could enter this matchup, which for them is meaningless, fat and happy following that victory lacking a killer instinct. Seattle isn't likely to have its best defensive player, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. He suffered a knee sprain last week. The Cardinals have played three tough opponents during their last four games having drawn the Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Seattle, on the other hand, got to go against the Texans, Bears and Lions during three of its past four matchups. Arizona defeated the Seahawks, 23-13, at Seattle in Week 11 outgaining the Seahawks by 147 yards. |
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01-09-22 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals will be sitting out certain starters, including Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. But the Browns also will be minus many players with 15 players landing on their mid-week injury report. Cincinnati is the hotter team with three straight wins. Morale is great with the Bengals, who have won the AFC North. Chemistry isn't so good with the Browns, who have lost three in a row and eight of their last 12. Only twice in their past seven games have the Browns broken 20 points. There is some randomness to this game with both teams starting backup QB's. The Bengals are the superior team, though, and they revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 41-16, loss to the Browns in November. So I'll go ahead and accept this many points.
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01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers. Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders +8.5 v. Colts | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing. Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr. The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground. The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season. The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many? The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl. But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified. Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten. The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage. This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10.5 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 45 m | Show | |
The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington. Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday. The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center. Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games. Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week. Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons. Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season. I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games. |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Jets | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 38 m | Show | |
Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired. |
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12-26-21 | Lions v. Falcons -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show | |
Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons.
The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. |
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12-26-21 | Giants +10 v. Eagles | 10-34 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell. San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years. The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team. |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs -11 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans. The Saints are going to be minus their two star offensive tackles. Sean Payton also is unavailable. New Orleans has become a run-option team after losing Jameis Winston in that win against the Buccaneers. The Bucs are extremely hard to run on ranking No. 3 in rush defense. The Buccaneers are 6-0 at home. They are healthier than the Saints and have revenge. Tom Brady is having one of his greatest seasons leading the NFL in pass completions, attempts, yards and TD's with 36. The Saints don't have enough depth in their secondary to defend all of Brady's stud targets. Being a run-oriented team now the Saints also lack the firepower to hang with the Buccaneers, nor get a backdoor cover. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons +10 v. 49ers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role. The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games. Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given. San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this. |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +1 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 40 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games. The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. Now comes the rematch where if the Chargers win again they would tie the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West Division. Not going to happen, though. The Chiefs will win and cover this short spread. I'm very confident writing this. Why? Kansas City is playing its best ball and the Chargers will be missing at least one key player. I have full confidence in Patrick Mahomes, who is rounding back into his superstar form, and is aided not only by star receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but a finally-healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chargers have given up an average of 26.1 points during their last nine games. They rank 31st in run defense so Edwards-Helaire could produce a big game. The Chiefs are peaking, unlike when they met the Chargers back in late September. Kansas City has won six in a row, the last four by an average of 21.7 points. No team has produced more than 17 points on the Chiefs during Kansas City's last six games. The Chiefs have allowed exactly nine points in each of their last three games. Linebacker Melvin Ingram has been one of the reasons for the Chiefs' defensive turnaround. He played for the Chargers from 2017-2020. He knows them well. Remember the name Trey Pipkins III. Who? He's a little used back-up offensive lineman for the Chargers. He's going to start at left tackle - yes the spot where Herbert's blindside is - replacing standout rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Pipkins has played only 27 offensive snaps this season. Usually being the home team for the Thursday night game is a big factor. The Chargers, however, don't have much of a home field advantage because they lack fan support in LA at SoFi Stadium. The short week hurts the Chargers on the injury front. Not only is Slater out, but star running back Austin Ekeler (knee), safety Derwin James (hamstring) and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (hamstring) are all questionable. James is the Chargers' second-leading tackler. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point. The Rams trail Arizona by two games in the NFC West making this a must-win spot for them. Not that they would want to, but the Cardinals can take a loss here. Arizona also gets to play the Lions next week. Both teams have excellent statistics. The Rams, though, rank higher than the Cardinals in yards per play and defensive yards per play. Those are underrated and telling numbers. Arizona halted an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with a 37-20 victory in Week 4. The Rams didn't have Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. back then. |
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games. Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will. The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points. Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles. Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games. Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens. The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards. Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game. It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game. The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -107 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday. Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals -7.5 v. Bears | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show | |
It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries. Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears. Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons +11.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -113 | 97 h 14 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers are overvalued here especially given their cluster injury problem in their secondary. That gives Matt Ryan a fighting chance being home on a fast track. It's huge for the Falcons that they have Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury. Patterson has had a breakout season. Always a kick return threat, Patterson has thrived both as a runner and receiver as the Facons' featured player. The Falcons were right with the Bucs in the first meeting trailing, 28-25, with less than 10 minutes before Tampa Bay broke the game open when Mike Edwards returned a pair of Ryan interceptions for touchdowns. This is a division rivalry, but the Falcons probably will be taking the matchup more seriously trying to salvage their season. The Buccaneers have a bigger challenge on deck when they host the Bills next week.
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line. Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games. The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington. |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 93 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 20 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points. The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009. Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions. The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up. Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree. Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation. |
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11-27-21 | Notre Dame -19 v. Stanford | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams. The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run. A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout. Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M -6.5 v. LSU | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -4 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league. The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season. New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self. New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game. |
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11-21-21 | Texans +10.5 v. Titans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level. But the Texans will prove tough here. After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck. Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot. Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman. The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL. Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played. This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee. The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot. |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
The 49ers are off one of the most impressive victories of the season. They beat the Rams, 31-10, at home this past Monday night. But the 49ers are a below .500 team. They have a banged-up secondary, an overrated coach and a mediocre quarterback. They just aren't that good. It's a horrible spot for them traveling cross-country on a short week while basking in the glow of a huge upset division victory. It's also an early start time for San Francisco. Jacksonville is below-the-radar. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. They've surrendered an average of 20 points in their past four games. The Jaguars stunned the Bills at home two weeks ago and hung tough staying within one score of the Colts on the road this past week. The 49ers are run-oriented. They use the run to set up Jimmy Garoppolo. The Jaguars' strength is their 12th-ranked run defense. Garoppolo and the 49ers can and should not be trusted in this spot against this improved foe that is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in its last four games.
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7. The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries. Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week. The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense. Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage. This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster. |
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11-20-21 | Appalachian State v. Troy +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games. The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times. The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has lost just once in November during the last seven years. That lone defeat occurred against Baylor last Saturday. I'm expecting the Sooners to bounce back in a big way at home against Iowa State, which is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road contests. The Sooners are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of making the College Football Playoffs. The 9-1 Sooners also need a victory to realistically keep alive their hopes of capturing a seventh straight Big 12 title. Iowa State is enduring a disappointing season. The Cyclones are 6-4 and off a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 13-point road favorite.
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 34 m | Show |
The Chiefs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL going 5-4. Bad defense and a league-worst 19 takeaways are the main factors. Lately, though, the Chiefs have begun to clean up those messes. They had no turnovers against the Packers last week. KC's defense has looked better with the return of its top pass rusher, Chris Jones. The Chiefs have held their last two foes, the Packers and Giants, to a combined average of 12 points. The Raiders are off to an impressive 5-3 start aided by an improved defense and Derek Carr playing well. I see regression coming, though. The Raiders have been very fortunate. They've fumbled 10 times and recovered nine of them. Carr never has proven consistent throughout an entire season. He's going to miss the play-calling and game plans of fired coach Jon Gruden and he no longer has vertical threat Henry Ruggs. Kansas City has owned the Raiders, beating them six of the past seven times.
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11-14-21 | Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a real bad matchup for Washington. Tom Brady entered his bye last week leading the NFL in passing yards and TD's. He's on pace to throw for 5,631 yards and 53 TD's. Slowing down at 44? I think not. Washington is last in pass defense and 29th in scoring defense and total yards. Washington just lost pass rusher Montez Sweat, too. So Chase Young, who has only 1 1/2 sacks, can forget about any single blocking. Backup QB Taylor Heinicke's limitations - lack of height, arm strength, decision making - are becoming more exposed as the season progresses. The Buccaneers know about him after beating Washington in the playoffs last season. Washington is down two excellent offensive linemen, too, with guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier both out. Roullier suffered a broken leg in Washington's last game. There's a major gap between Roullier and his replacement, Tyler Larsen. The Buccaneers are No. 2 in stopping the run and their secondary is getting healthier. I don't see Heinicke being able to keep up with Brady.
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys -9 | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 86 h 44 m | Show | |
I want to back the Cowboys at home after they played their worst game of the season in a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Despite that defeat, Dallas still is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, the best point spread mark in the NFL. Only twice have the explosive Cowboys failed to manage at least 29 points this season when Dak Prescott has started. Atlanta is terrible on defense once again. The Falcons give up the fifth-most points per game and rank 29th in takeaways. The Falcons' 4-4 record is deceiving since three of their wins occurred versus the Giants, Jets and Dolphins whose combined record entering this week was 7-19. Atlanta won all but one of its games on a field goal by Younghoe Koo on the final play. While Dallas should be aroused Atlanta is fat and happy having upset their hated division rivals the Saints on the road, 27-25, last Sunday. This marks the Falcons' fifth different venue in their last five games.
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11-13-21 | Michigan v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents. Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak. Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens -6 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 1 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games. I don't expect the Vikings to cover this game either. The Ravens are 10-3 off a bye. They've won an NFL-high 11 straight against NFC foes. Baltimore is itching to play after getting blown out by the Bengals in its last game before its bye. I used to like Mike Zimmer. Not so much anymore. I give the Ravens a strong coaching edge with John Harbaugh and his defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale. They've had an extra week to prepare. I expect a strong defensive game plan to limit the limited Kirk Cousins, who is more a glorified game manager than dangerous downfield passer to the detriment of supremely talented Justin Jefferson. Cousins' repeated failure to convert on numerous third downs by throwing short of the first down marker against a mediocre Cowboys defense was sickening. This is the first time the Vikings under Zimmer have faced Lamar Jackson. I'm not sure they know what's fully in store for them. Jackson is passing more, but remains the most dangerous running quarterback in football. Jackson faces a Vikings defense devoid of several key defensive linemen, including star pass rusher Danielle Hunter, and also missing Patrick Peterson, their best cornerback. Hunter has 25 percent of the Vikings' sacks. Not helping matters for the Vikings are the down years experienced by veterans Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith.
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11-07-21 | Texans +6 v. Dolphins | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback. Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. |
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11-06-21 | USC v. Arizona State -8 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack. The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC? Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game. I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars. USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots. |
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11-06-21 | Iowa -12 v. Northwestern | 17-12 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class. The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin. Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14. Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite. |