| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 01-03-21 | Steelers +10.5 v. Browns | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
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I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch. The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season. Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other. Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits. |
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| 12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
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Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack. |
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| 12-30-20 | Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
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Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
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| 12-27-20 | Browns -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
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Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league? |
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| 12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
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The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
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| 12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
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This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games. |
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| 12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
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I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points. |
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| 12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada +2.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
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This is a bad matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave of New Orleans are making a long journey into cold weather where the temperature is going to be in the 20's and the winds will be flapping at 15-25 mph. Nevada is well familiar with the special blue turf and field conditions in Boise State's home stadium, site of the Potato Bowl. The Wolf Pack have a monster passing edge with Carson Strong, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. He led the conference in completions, completion percentage, TD's and passing yards. Strong has two all-conference receiving targets in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The Wolf Pack also have all-conference placekicker Brandon Talton. Tulane could be down three starting defensive linemen with two of its starters definitely ruled out. The Green Wave struggled against strong passing opponents. Central Florida put up 51 points on Tulane while Houston scored 49 points on the Green Wave. The Green Wave are run-oriented, but that's Nevada's defensive strength. Tulane lost its up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Will Hall. He left to become head coach at Southern Mississippi. Tulane's defensive coordinator was fired so the Green Wave are without both of their coordinators.
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| 12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 99 h 47 m | Show | |
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The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
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| 12-20-20 | Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team | 20-15 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
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Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
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| 12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +7 | 46-33 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
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Oregon State beat Arizona State at home last season and the Beavers can do it again this season even if their star running back, Jermar Jefferson, can't play because of an ankle injury. It's an added plus if Jefferson can play after suffering the injury last Saturday. The Beavers and UCLA were the only two Pac-12 schools not to have their schedule and routine thrown out of whack because of COVID-19. Oregon State has played six games going 2-4. Note that all but one of those defeats came by six points or fewer. Arizona State is 1-2. The Sun Devils are off a monster win against in-state and Pac-12 rival Arizona, 70-7, last week. That victory left the Sun Devils feeling very smug and satisfied. It puts them in a potential letdown spot. Oregon State has been competitive all season. The Beavers are well-coached by Jonathan Smith. They have covered four of their last five games.
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| 12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 78 h 18 m | Show |
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The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
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| 12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -104 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
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On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
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| 12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills -2.5 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 103 h 52 m | Show | |
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Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
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| 12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | 23-15 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 43 m | Show | |
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Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
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| 12-13-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Raiders | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
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| 12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
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I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
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| 12-13-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
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Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk. |
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| 12-12-20 | Louisiana Tech +21.5 v. TCU | 10-52 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
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You can't blame TCU if it doesn't get excited about this matchup. The Horned Frogs are off a huge 29-22 home win against then 15th-ranked Oklahoma State last Saturday. This is their only nonconference matchup of the season. Louisiana Tech is the much fresher team. The Bulldogs have played just once since November and that was last Friday when they defeated North Texas. 42-31, on the road. The Bulldogs can score averaging just under 32 points per game. They are 27-11 ATS the past 38 times as a road 'dog. TCU has not shined as home chalk going 5-21 ATS the last 26 times as a home favorite.
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| 12-12-20 | Navy v. Army -7 | 0-15 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
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Many key factors point to Army being the right side, including getting to host this annual rivalry. It's the first time since 1943 the teams aren't facing each other at a neutral site. Along with home field advantage, Army is in much better current form than Navy. The Black Knights are 5-1 in their last six games. Navy has dropped four in a row. These teams are all about running the football. Army exceeds, Navy doesn't. The Black Knights are the No. 3 rushing team in the country. They are No. 1 in rushing TD's with 31.Navy is 109th in run defense. Army ranks 23rd in run defense. The Black Knights have permitted only five rushing TD's. Navy still hasn't settled on a quarterback. The Midshipmen have produced just 13 points in their last two games against Memphis and Tulsa.
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| 12-12-20 | Utah +1 v. Colorado | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
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Colorado is a surprising 4-0. But I don't expect to see the Buffaloes remaining unbeaten after this game. Their record is impressive, but their play hasn't been that stellar. Colorado also has caught some lucky breaks. UCLA committed four turnovers against Colorado. Arizona was going with a freshman backup QB making his first start when it played the Buffaloes. Yet Colorado still needed a goal line stand to help hold off the Wildcats. San Diego State was riddled with injuries and had to play at Colorado on short notice and Stanford outscored the Buffaloes in the second half in losing by three points. I'm not impressed with Colorado QB Sam Noyer, who has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Utes are better in the trenches, especially their run defense which holds foes to 3.6 yards per rush. Ty Jordan is one of the better freshmen running backs in the country and veteran transfer QB Jake Bentley has a strong arm. He can take advantage of Colorado's inconsistent defense. |
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| 12-12-20 | Michigan State +15.5 v. Penn State | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
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Don't sleep on Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry matchup. The Spartans were smashed, 52-12, by Ohio State last week. The Spartans weren't going to win that game even if their QB, Rocky Lombardi, didn't get knocked out. But there is an overcorrection in the line for this game. Penn State isn't very good this season especially on offense. Michigan State still is worthy of respect. Let's not forget the Spartans own a blowout win against Michigan and a victory versus Big 10 West champion Northwestern. I'm fine if Payton Thorne is Michigan State's QB if Lombardi can't go. The Nittany Lions are 2-5. Their victories have come against Michigan and Rutgers. Penn State is averaging a meager 23 points in their last six games. Sean Clifford has endured a terrible season and the Nittany Lions have been without RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth. The weapons haven't been there. Penn State has given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 15 times in its seven games. Michigan State has seven sacks in its last two games.
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| 12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 133 h 8 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS. |
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| 12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
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Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways. |
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| 12-06-20 | Lions v. Bears -3 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 48 m | Show | |
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Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog. |
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| 12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -14 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
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The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
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| 12-05-20 | Tulsa v. Navy +12.5 | 19-6 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
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Tulsa struggles to win by margins with just one victory coming by more than eight points. I can see home 'dog Navy hanging in especially given the weather conditions in Annapolis. Rain and heavy winds, which could turn into gusts, have caused this total to be lowered. Points are more at a premium now. The bad weather is much better for Navy, too. The Midshipmen are heavily ground-oriented while Tulsa is a passing team operating from the spread. Navy held high-powered Memphis to 10 points in its last game. Memphis averages 33 points on the season. Tulsa is 0-5 lifetime against Navy in AAC league play. Navy beat the Golden Hurricane, 45-17, last season. Navy does have Army on deck. That's one of college football's biggest rivalries. Still, Navy has plenty of incentive for this game. It's Senior Day with 26 Navy seniors playing in their final home game. The Midshipmen have won an extraordinary 17 straight games on their Senior Day.
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| 12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
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Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents. |
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| 11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -9 | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
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I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
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| 11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
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Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
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| 11-29-20 | Browns -7 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
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The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
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| 11-28-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -10.5 | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
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I want to fade a punchless Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State, which is in a foul mood after getting blown out by rival Oklahoma last week. The Cowboys still harbor Big 12 title hopes, have many huge defensive edges and are much superior in the skill positions. The Red Raiders have lost and failed to cover in all three of their road games, all versus Big 12 foes and all by double-digits. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Oklahoma State gives up nearly 18 fewer points per game than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have only reached 400 yards once in their last five games. They aren't going to be able to hang close to Oklahoma State.
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| 11-28-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -7 | 41-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
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Both teams are 3-0. But Buffalo is the elite team of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls are 9-1 going back to last season. Their lone loss? It came to Kent State on the road last season and it came in shocking fashion with the Bulls blowing a 21-point lead with eight minutes to play. The Golden Flashes came up with a recovered onside kick and blocked punt to set up that improbable victory. The well-coached Bulls haven't forgotten. Buffalo has excellent skill position talent in QB Kyle Van Treese and running back James Patterson, who is coming off a 301-yard rushing, 4-TD wipeout of Bowling Green. The Bulls won that game, 42-17, but didn't manage to cover the large point spread. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, however. Buffalo also has a strong defense holding foes to 19 points per game, which rates 15th in the nation. Kent has been a nice story this season, but the unbeaten Golden Flashes have played an easy schedule. This includes wins against the two worst MAC teams, Bowling Green and Akron. Buffalo is the stronger team and has monster revenge. |
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| 11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
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The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
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| 11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 88 h 31 m | Show |
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Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
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| 11-22-20 | Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 18 m | Show | |
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The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
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| 11-22-20 | Eagles +3.5 v. Browns | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 20 m | Show | |
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As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
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| 11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
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Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
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| 11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
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I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
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| 11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010. |
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| 11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 137 h 10 m | Show | |
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The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
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| 11-15-20 | Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
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Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog. |
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| 11-15-20 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 15 m | Show |
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The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
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| 11-14-20 | Arkansas +18 v. Florida | 35-63 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 15 m | Show | |
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Florida is vulnerable this week. The Gators are coming off a huge victory against Georgia and taking on a much improved and opportunistic Arkansas squad. The Gators halted a three-game losing streak to Georgia with a 44-28 victory last week. It's going to be difficult for Florida to get up for the Razorbacks. The well-coached Razorbacks have been underdogs in each of their six games this season. They have covered every time, including posting three straight-up wins. Florida QB Kyle Trask is having a huge season. Arkansas, though, has a tremendous pass defense. Only once have the Razorbacks yielded 300 passing yards. Arkansas has picked off 12 passes and is plus 8 in turnover margin. Florida has turned the ball over at least once every game. Feleipe Franks was Florida's QB before coming to Arkansas. Franks has been solid, connecting on 67 percent of his throws with 14 TD's. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. |
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| 11-14-20 | Baylor +1 v. Texas Tech | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
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Baylor has found a team it can beat - Texas Tech. The Bears have the much superior defense and Texas Tech is the one team they can run on. The Red Raiders are surrendering 40.1 points per game and rank 107th in yards allowed per game. Their defense is the worst in the Big 12. The Bears rank third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Texas Tech hasn't had a 300-yard passing game in its last five games. The Red Raiders have scored 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games.
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| 11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
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This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
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| 11-14-20 | Penn State -3 v. Nebraska | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
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Something has to give between these two winless and disappointing Big Ten teams. Penn State hasn't had a losing season since 2004. The Nittany Lions have suffered two of their losses to much-improved Indiana and powerful Ohio State. They are more talented than Nebraska. Sean Clifford is one of the better QB's in the Big 10 and Penn State's run defense and pass rush have been there. The team has been hurt by turnovers. Nebraska has managed only 30 points in its losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. QB Adrian Martinez keeps sadly regressing. The Cornhuskers lack a downfield passing game and their running attack isn't strong enough to offset that. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 (18 percent) Big Ten games and are 6-18-2 ATS in their past 26 home games.
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| 11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
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| 11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
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If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
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| 11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
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Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here. |
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| 11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
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I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits. |
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| 11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
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At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
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| 11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4.5 | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 54 m | Show | |
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The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
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| 11-07-20 | Rutgers +39 v. Ohio State | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
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The combination of Rutugers' improvement under Greg Schiano and an Ohio State letdown puts me on the Scarlet Knights getting this many points. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State, 38-27, opening week and hung tough in a 37-21 loss to then No. 17 ranked Indiana in its two games. The Knights' win against the Spartans is made even more impressive after Michigan State defeated Michigan last Saturday. The Buckeyes could be in letdown mode after defeating then 18th-ranked Penn State, 38-25, last week. Ohio State loses some of its home field advantage as just 1,600 people will be allowed into 100,000-seat Ohio Stadium. Even if Ohio State builds up a huge early lead there may be a reluctance to humiliate Schiano, who was the Buckeyes' associate head coach and defensive coordinator from 2016-18.
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| 11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
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I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense. |
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| 11-05-20 | Packers -7 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
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The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers. |
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| 11-04-20 | Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
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Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
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| 11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 60 h 36 m | Show | |
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A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
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| 11-01-20 | Titans -4 v. Bengals | 20-31 | Loss | -125 | 150 h 41 m | Show | |
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Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin. |
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| 11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 84 h 37 m | Show | |
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Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
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| 11-01-20 | Vikings v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -112 | 150 h 60 m | Show |
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The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams. |
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| 10-30-20 | Minnesota -19 v. Maryland | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -112 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
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So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time. |
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| 10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
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A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
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| 10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
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The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career. |
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| 10-24-20 | Penn State v. Indiana +6.5 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
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Don't be shocked if Indiana pulls off the outright upset with a straight-up victory. Penn State lost many key players and Indiana returns a lot. The Nittany Lions are down their best player on offense and top defensive player. Running back Journey Brown is likely out for the season with a medical condition, while star linebacker MIcah Parson opted out of the season. The Hoosiers turned the corner last year going 8-5, their best record in 27 years. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is as talented as Penn State QB Sean Clifford. The Hoosiers have outstanding skill position talent with running back Steve Scott, wideout Whop Philyor and tight end Peyton Hendershot. Indiana also returns eight defensive starts, including leading tackler LB Micah McFadden. Penn State defeated Indiana, 34-27, at home last year. Penix missed that game with an injury.
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| 10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
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Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game. |
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| 10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
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If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12. |
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| 10-18-20 | Bengals +9.5 v. Colts | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
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| 10-18-20 | Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
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The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. |
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| 10-18-20 | Texans +4 v. Titans | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
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The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
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| 10-17-20 | UMass v. Georgia Southern -31 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
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UMass probably was doing college football a favor by electing to cancel its season. The Minutemen would not be missed. They are terrible. However, UMass decided to opt back in. That was just three weeks ago. You can imagine how little preparation time the Minutemen have. This game wasn't even scheduled until Oct. 8. Georgia Southern had a hole in its schedule because coronavirus forced postponement of their original opponent, far-stronger Appalachian State. So Georgia Southern won't lose a beat. The Eagles already have played three games. UMass barely has a depth chart. The Minutemen are likely to go with Mike Fallon at QB. He's thrown for 40 years during his four years with the program. Georgia Southern should bury UMass with its triple-option attack. The Eagles are the fourth-highest rushing team in the country. UMass played Army last season. That was the one foe that also ran a triple-option offense. Army buried the Minutemen, 63-7.
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| 10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
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Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions. |
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| 10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
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Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.. |
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| 10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
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Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager. |
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| 10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
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| 10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show | |
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The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase. |
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| 10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
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| 10-10-20 | Charlotte v. North Texas +3 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
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North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense.
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| 10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
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Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. |
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| 10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
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Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
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| 10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
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Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests. |
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| 10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +7 | 31-23 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 57 m | Show | |
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Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores. |
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| 10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 36 h 43 m | Show | |
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The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
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| 10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs -6.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
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The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
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| 10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -6.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
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Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points.
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| 10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
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I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
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| 10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good. |
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| 09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 52 m | Show | |
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Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal. |
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| 09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show | |
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Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies. |
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| 09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +4 | 36-9 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 45 m | Show | |
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The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation. |
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| 09-27-20 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns | 20-34 | Loss | -117 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
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Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog. |
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| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
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Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat. |
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| 09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
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Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
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| 09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
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SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
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| 09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +3 | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football. |
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| 09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
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Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact. |
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| 09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
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The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs. |
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| 09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot. |
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| 09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
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The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
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| 09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
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Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
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