You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time Patrick Corbin had a winning season. Since then, Corbin is 28-64. The lefty's ERA is 5.46. Last year, Corbin's ERA was 5.20. The year before that it was 6.31 and it was 5.82 in 2021.

I rarely lay a price this large, but I'm going to do it here in order to fade Corbin.

The Rays are 13-7 against southpaw starters. They are pitching Taj Bradley, who is in his best form of the year giving up just four earned runs during his last four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings. Bradley has 29 strikeouts during this time frame. Bradley has faced three strong opponents during his last four games going against the Mariners, Twins and Orioles.

Bradley and a deep Tampa Bay bullpen can handle the Nationals while the Rays should do plenty of damage against Corbin.

Look for Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott to give the Cardinals fits. Abbott is 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Those aren't bad numbers, but the Cardinals rank in the bottom-three against lefty pitching in many major offensive categories, including batting, slugging percentage and OPS. They are hitting only .215 vs lefty throwers.

The Cardinals are going with Miles Mikolas, who defies mediocrity. He's 6-6 with a 4.68 ERA, which climbs to 4.81 when he pitches at home.

St. Louis is dealing with a fatigue factor after splitting a doubleheader with the Braves on Wednesday.

We know who Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is. A mediocre journeyman, who has pitched for five different teams since 2019.

But just who is Reynaldo Lopez? This year Lopez has pitched like a superstar with a 5-2 record and 1.57 ERA. Atlanta is 7-3 in his starts this season. Lopez has been brilliant in his last four starts - all Braves victories - giving up three earned runs during this time spanning 23 innings with 29 strikeouts.

These pitchers were scheduled to face each other on Tuesday, but the game was postponed until today as part of a double-header. This is the first game of that doubleheader. So the game has to be re-bet.

The rainout on Tuesday has not changed what I think about this game.

St. Louis has been playing well, although its previous six series all were against below .500 opponents. But the Braves are clearly the superior team with a better offense, a bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA and a defense that has committed the fewest errors in baseball.

The Braves should be able to reach Gibson, who has a 4.28 home ERA, and a St. Louis bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.

The Cardinals are playing better, winning eight of their past 11 games. They've also played six opponents with losing records during their last six series.

That won't be the case here against the 43-32 Braves. Atlanta is without superstar Ronald Acuna. But the Cardinals are likely to be without Wilson Contreras and possibly Nolan Arenado, who is dealing with left forearm nerve irritation.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They impressively took two of three road games from the Yankees, who have the second-best record in baseball.

Atlanta rookie starter Spencer Schwellenbach is in better form than St. Louis veteran starter Lance Lynn. Schwellenbach has allowed three runs on seven hits during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. St. Louis has never faced him giving Schwellenbach a surprise element.

I prefer a young promising Atlanta pitcher instead of Lynn, who has been nothing more than a glorified innings eater for the past several years. Lynn has a losing record this season with a 4.08 ERA. He has a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Lynn gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the weak-hitting Marlins during his previous start six days ago. Lifetime against the Braves, Lynn has a 4.34 ERA in eight starts.

Seattle is a much better team than Miami and the Mariners hold a strong pitching edge today with a matchup of Bryce Miller vs Kyle Tyler.

Miller is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.46 ERA. He likely won't have to deal with Jazz Chisholm, the Marlins' RBI and stolen base leader. Chisholm is bothered by a right biceps injury and had to be pulled from Saturday's game.

The Marlins lost that game, 9-0, to the Mariners. Miami starter Braxton Garrett was scratched. The Marlins are already down six starters and their bullpen is taxed. So Tyler may have to pitch longer than expected.

Southpaw Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the White Sox with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, which is No. 2 in the majors.

I certainly have nothing against Crochet, although I'm leery that he can continue at a pace this good. But I am going to fade the White Sox at this low of a lay price with a hot Hunter Brown and a prideful Astros team that is off an embarrassing, 2-0, loss to the White Sox and rookie Jonathan Cannon.

Houston still is trying to turn its season around. But no team is worse than the White Sox, who are 20-54.

Only once since mid-May have the White Sox won two straight games.

The Astros rank in the top-12 in the major offensive categories against lefty pitching. They expect to get back slugger Yordan Alvarez after he missed Tuesday's game because of a family matter. Alvarez is batting .365 this month with 15 RBI's.

Crochet is coming off his second-highest pitch count of the season. The White Sox have to be careful with him since he's had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. Only once this season has Crochet gone more than six innings. The White Sox bullpen ranks 27th in ERA.

Brown is riding a 13-inning scoreless streak. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader to close if needed. The White Sox rank last in runs, batting average and OPS.

When it comes to the Pirates, I won't go against Paul Skenes and I have great respect for the backend of their bullpen. Other than that, though, the Pirates are fair game. I'm going against them today in a pitching matchup of Nick Lodolo vs Bailey Falter.

The Reds are 8-2 in Lodolo's starts this season. Lodolo has a 2.93 ERA. He's been even better on the road with a 2.55 ERA. Lodolo has surrendered just six earned runs during his past four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings.

Falter is not in good form giving up eight runs and 16 hits in his past two starts spanning eight innings. Pittsburgh is 3-7 in Falter's starts this year.

Falter has a career 7.79 ERA against the Reds in five games, including three starts.

DJ Herz has one thing going for him as he faces the Marlins at home in his third big league start. Herz is a lefty.

The Marlins are a terrible team - especially when facing southpaws. Miami is 3-21 against lefty starters this season.

I expect Herz and a rested Washington bullpen to handle the Marlins. Miami is batting .223 vs lefties. The Marlins are second-to-last in the league in runs, homers and OPS.

Oh, yes, the Marlins also are averaging a puny 2.2 runs during their past 11 games.

David Peterson will be making his third start for the Mets this season. He's 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. More importantly, he's a lefty. The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball. A big reason for that is their 3-19 mark against southpaws. The Marlins are last in slugging percentage and second-to-last in on-base percentage when facing left-handed pitching.

Expect the Mets to bounce back from a 4-2 Tuesday loss to Miami. The Mets had a letdown against the Marlins after defeating the Phillies this past Sunday in London. New York was idle this past Monday.

Peterson has a 2.06 career ERA against the Marlins in seven games, including six starts. Miami starter Braxton Garrett has a 5.81 ERA. He's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in eight career games against the Mets, including seven starts.

Luis Gil has been coming through in a big way for the Yankees. Gil has been fantastic with an 8-1 record and 1.82 ERA. But Gil is trumped here by Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow is in the argument for best pitcher in baseball. He has 2.93 ERA and leads the majors in strikeouts. Glasnow has faced the Yankees five times since 2020. He's 4-0 against them with a 1.45 ERA.

Both offenses are very strong. But the Dodgers rate an offensive edge, especially with Juan Soto likely not to be in the starting lineup because of a forearm injury.

The Padres are averaging 2.2 runs in their last five games. San Diego's offense is better than that. The Padres lead the majors in batting average and get to face Brandon Pfaadt at home. Michael King opposes Pfaadt.

These two pitchers went against each other at Arizona on May 4. The Padres won, 13-1. King threw six shutout innings giving up six hits while not walking a batter. King is in excellent form with a 2.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pfaadt was tagged for five runs, three of which were earned, in six innings during that May 4th loss. He has a 4.32 ERA on the season, which balloons to 4.71 in his seven road starts.

In Woo we trust - especially going against the weak-hitting A's, who have scored six runs in their last three games.

Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He was injured early in the season, but has come back to go 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in five starts spanning 27 2/3 innings.

Woo has thrown 15 1/3 career innings against Oakland. The A's have yet to score on him.

A's starter JP Sears has a 4.01 ERA. He's taken on a hot Mariner team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games.

I had a winner with the Rays yesterday against the Marlins and am coming back on them again today. It's a low price to back a team that is one game below .500 and beginning to play better against the 21-40 Marlins.

Zach Eflin will be making his first start since May 18 after being out with a lower back injury. He'll be on a pitch count, but he's backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen that did the job yesterday. Miami ranks second-to-last in baseball in runs and homers.

The Marlins are going with southpaw Braxton Garrett, who has a 4.56 ERA. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.3 runs against lefty starters. Garrett has pitched awful in his two home starts with a 10.24 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Tampa Bay has owned the Marlins during the past six seasons going 22-3 against them.

The Rays have been disappointing this season. But they aren't nearly as bad as the 21-39 Marlins.

The price is low enough to fade the Marlins in a pitching matchup of Ryan Pepiot vs Jesus Luzardo.

Pepiot has cooled off after a hot April. He's 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA. Pepiot has a strong history against the Marlins with a 2-0 mark and 1.50 ERA in three appearances.

Pepiot is backed by a deep bullpen and facing a Marlins squad that ranks second-to-last in the majors in runs and homers. Miami has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games. The Marlins have been shut out in their past two games.

Luzardo is 2-4 with a 4.18 ERA. The Marlins are 3-6 in his starts this season.

Even though the Cardinals have been playing a little better, they are still a below .500 team. The Phillies have the best record in baseball at 41-18. Philadelphia also has won eight consecutive home games.

So, why such a low lay price on the home Phillies?

Why, indeed. Puzzles me. But I'm happy to lay what I consider a short number to back the far superior team.

Perhaps it's the pitching matchup of veteran Lance Lynn with a 3.45 ERA going against a disappointing Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.51 ERA.

Lynn, though, is well past his prime. He's surrendered four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He hasn't gone more than six innings during any of these outings.

Walker is 30-12 during the past three seasons. He's due to pitch better. He's also backed by the better bullpen.

The Phillies lead the majors in runs scored, while the Cardinals rank 26th. So Lynn has the far more difficult task.

Regression is starting to come to the surprising Royals. They've dropped four of their past five games and lost second baseman Michael Massey to a back injury.

Quietly, the Padres have won seven of their last nine series. I like them to win the opener of this series with Dylan Cease opposing Michael Wacha.

Cease is having a strong bounce back season for the Padres after being acquired from the White Sox. Cease is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in away games this season. Wacha isn't in his class and he's facing a Padres team that has the fourth-highest batting average in the majors.

The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment so far this season after making the World Series last year.

But the Diamondbacks are in much better shape than the Mets.

The free-falling Mets are 4-15 in their last 19 games. They just lost their best power-hitter, Pete Alonso, to a hand injury and were ripped by pitcher Jorge Lopez following a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers last night.

Fair to say, morale is not exactly good in the Mets' clubhouse.

Now the Mets have to face Arizona's star pitcher, Zac Gallen. New York is going with rookie Christian Scott, who is 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA. The Mets are without closer Edwin Diaz, who recently went on the injured list with a shoulder injury.

The price is low enough to back Gallen.

The Brewers have yet to score against Cubs starting pitchers in 32 1/3 innings this season. And they've yet to face rookie phenom Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga goes tonight against Bryse Wilson. I'm backing Imanaga at this price. The lefty is 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Brewers are 27th in batting vs southpaws. They also have the disadvantage of never having faced Imanaga.

Wilson isn't as good as his numbers - 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP - indicate. He's struggled historically against the Cubs with a 5.55 ERA in 10 career appearances, including six starts.

This is a short price to fade the road Marlins. The Marlins have the worst record in the National League at 19-36.

Jesus Luzardo draws the start for Miami. He's allowed nine runs in 10 2/3 innings during his two road starts this season.

The price is short because Matt Waldron is slated to start for San Diego. He's been pitching better lately, though, and is backed by a San Diego bullpen that has the seventh-lowest ERA in the majors.

Having Ronel Blanco back and a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen is enough for me to take the Astros against the A's, who are 4-12 in their past 16 games resuming their place as one of the worst teams in the majors.

Blanco is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA. He is coming off a 10-game suspension and should be extremely motivated. Houston is 7-1 in Blanco's eight starts this season.

Aaron Brooks goes for Oakland. The 34-year-old is surprisingly back up to the Majors. He has a 4.15 ERA. The Astros already have seen him this year, beating him, 3-0, on May 15.

Lifetime, Brooks is 0-5 vs Houston with a 7.09 ERA.

The Red Sox are going for a three-game road sweep against the Rays today. I don't see them getting it.

Boston is 4-15 (21 percent) the past three seasons at Tropicana Field, including winning the first two games of this series. 

The pitching matchup is Brayan Bello vs Ryan Pepiot. 

Bello has a 3.96 ERA. He was just tagged for five runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Cardinals this past Friday. Bello surrendered three homers in that game. Bello is 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career starts against the Rays. 

I have more faith in Pepiot, who has a 3.68 ERA. He's backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen.

These teams have been going in opposite directions. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in its last 16 games. Boston is 5-11 in its last 16 games. The Rays are now ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East standings because of this current form.

Some teams hate playing at Tropicana Field because of its turf and unconventional design. The Red Sox are one of those teams. Boston is 2-15 the past two seasons playing the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Part of the Red Sox problem is injuries to three key hitters: Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas are all out.

The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck against Taj Bradley.

Bradley is a young pitcher with a high ceiling. Since returning from injury, he's made two starts. He has a 2.45 ERA. Houck has an impressive 2.17 ERA. However, he's 3-5 and threw a career-high 112 pitches in 5 2/3 innings during a 4-3 home loss to the Rays this past Wednesday.

The Cardinals finished last in the NL Central last season. They are a half-game out of the division cellar this season. St. Louis ranks 28th in homers and is at a starting pitcher disadvantage in this matchup. So I'll lay a small price with Kutter Crawford against Miles Mikolas.

Cutter has turned a corner this season becoming a consistent pitcher with an impressive 2.24 ERA. Not only do the Cardinals rank third-from-last in runs, but their main power hitters are over-the-hill. St. Louis is 26th in homers.

The Red Sox should do damage against Mikolas. He was bad last season and he's bad this season with a 6.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He's allowed eight homers in 48 innings. Mikolas is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA at home this season.

Remember that 17-3 streak the Twins were on? It's over. The Yankees finished that off sweeping Minnesota, outscoring the Twins, 14-1, in three games.

I'm going to go against the Twins here as they open a series against the Guardians, who have a better record than Minnesota. Only the Yankees and Orioles have a better record in the American League than Cleveland.

The pitching matchup is Triston McKenzie vs Simeon Woods Richardson. I like McKenzie better. He has a 2.28 ERA in his past five starts. Richardson couldn't hold a 7-1 lead in his last start in a 10-8 loss to the Blue Jays last Saturday.

Cleveland is 10-3 in its last 13 home games, slugging 18 homers in those games. The Guardians have the top bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.44 and their deep relief pitching corps is rested as the team was idle yesterday.

The Phillies are 31-13, the best record in baseball. They are going for a four-game sweep of the Mets at home. Make room because I want to ride with them.

Philadelphia is 16-3 in its last 19 games, while the Mets are 1-8 in their last nine games if you discount two victories against the 18-25 Cardinals.

The pitching matchup also favors the Phillies with Taijuan Walker going against washed-up Jose Quintana, who has a 5.44 ERA and just gave up three homers to the Braves in five innings during his last start this past Friday.

The Phillies are 28-13. That's the best record in baseball. They've won 13 of their last 16 games. The Mets are below .500 with a mediocre offense. The Phillies have a far better offense and the superior starting pitcher going.

So I find this a low lay price to back the Phillies.

The pitching matchup is Cristopher Sanchez vs Sean Manaea.

Sanchez has allowed just one earned in four of his past five starts. He faces a Mets offense that is 15th in runs, 19th in batting average and 14th in homers.

Manaea has a 4.30 home ERA. He goes against a Phillies attack that ranks second in runs, third in batting average and fifth in home runs.

I want Justin Verlander and a rested Josh Hader going for me in this matchup. Verlander had his first poor performance of the season in his last start. He'll be highly motivated going against his long-time former team.  Verlander still is a well above average pitcher who rates a strong edge on comeback-minded Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.26 home ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-10 offense. The Astros finally have begun playing better. They have a winning record in their last dozen games. 

Kansas City's Michael Wacha has made two good starts this season. Both came against the White Sox, the worst offensive team in baseball. His other five starts haven't been good, particularly his last two. Those were against the Tigers and Rangers. Wacha gave up 11 earned runs and 18 hits in 9 2/3 innings against those two teams.

I don't believe Wacha should be a road favorite against the Angels. The Royals carry a high bullpen fatigue rating, too. Closer James McArthur has thrown 33 pitches during the past two days.

Angels lefty Reid Detmers was dynamite during his first four starts with a 3-0 mark and 1.19 ERA. He's struggled during his last three starts. But I believe he's turned the corner and has become a solid pitcher.

The Angels aren't good, but they are not as bad as some perceive. Before their series against the Pirates, the Angels had played a brutal schedule going against the Guardians, Phillies, Twins and Orioles.

The Yankees are off to an excellent start. The Astros are not. But after opening 7-19, Houston is slowly showing signs of getting turned around winning five of their last eight games.

Because of their slow start, I can get the Astros with Justin Verlander on the mound as an underdog today. I'll take that.

Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He's made three starts since returning from a shoulder injury and is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He has a rested Josh Hader to close.

The Yankees are pitching Luis Gil. I like him, but he's not a big inning guy. He's coming off a career-high 6 1/3 innings pitched against the Orioles this past Wednesday.

It takes a certain ineptitude to lose a home series to the White Sox, who are 3-14 on the road. The Cardinals managed to pull off the feat this weekend.

Both the Mets and Cardinals have been disappointments. But I'd rather take a plus price with the Mets than back the Cardinals, who rank among the bottom-three in several important offensive categories. This includes home runs and runs.

St. Louis is 6-9 at home. The Mets are 7-8 on the road.

Sean Manaea goes for the Mets. He has a 3.07 ERA. The Cardinals have failed to score more than three runs in five of their last seven games.

The Cardinals are going with Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.79 ERA. Gibson is the poster child for mediocre journeymen. And that might be giving him too much credit.

The Angels are 12-22. They've also played the Guardians (22-12), Phillies (24-11), Twins (19-14) and Orioles (23-11) during their past four series. Those are all strong teams, much better than the Pirates.

The 16-19 Pirates don't deserve to be such a big favorite against the Angels.

Angels starter Tyler Anderson is a veteran, who knows how to pitch. He has a 2.23 ERA on the season. The Angels expect to be reinforced with catcher Logan O'Hoppe and infielder Luis Rengifo today. Both have been out.

The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller, who never can be relied upon. The Pirates have lost his last three starts. Keller's ERA during this span is 6.19.

Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo has been one of the season's early surprises. He's 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Lodolo gives the Reds a big pitching advantage against Baltimore's Dean Kremer. So I see the Reds beating the Orioles and avoid getting swept at home by Baltimore.

Kremer is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA. He has struggled in day action giving up 11 runs in 16 innings.

The Reds lead the majors in steals. They are due to breaking out of a scoring slump.

Slade Cecconi has been a nice early story for the Diamondbacks. There were at least seven Arizona starters rated ahead of Cecconi at the start of the season. But injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have opened a spot in the rotation and Cecconi has taken advantage - so far.

Cecconi pitched 27 innings for Arizona in his major league debut last season and had a 4.33 ERA, while giving up four homers. He's made two starts this season, both on the road in pitcher's parks, going six innings each against the Giants and Mariners. He has a 2.25 ERA.

But now hitter's have more of a book on Cecconi. He's also pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field and facing the best offense he's seen. The Padres have the third-highest road batting average at .274. They rank ninth on the road in slugging percentage and third in on-base percentage when away from Petco Park.

Oh, yes, the Padres also have their best pitcher going here, Dylan Cease. He has been sharp in five of his six starts this season posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. Cease has held five of his six opponents to two earned runs, or fewer.

The Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their past seven games. They are averaging two runs per game during this time frame.

The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game.

Giants starter Logan Webb hasn't been scored upon in his last 19 innings. He's a proven elite pitcher. Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't. He has a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings this season, but can't be counted on to go deep into the game. I'm not sold on the Red Sox's bullpen, particularly middle relief. Key setup man Chris Martin has a 5.56 ERA.

The Yankees got their bats going, scoring 30 runs on 37 hits in posting Saturday and Sunday victories against the Brewers.

I don't see the Yankees repeating that success against Grayson Rodriguez, one of the most promising pitchers in the American League. Rodriguez had his first bad outing of the season in his last start. However, he had a 2.63 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 24 innings during his first four starts this year.

The Orioles aren't likely to have closer Craig Kimbrel, who left yesterday's game with a back injury. Kimbrel, though, had blown two straight save opportunities.

I rate Rodriguez at least a tier above Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, who has a 4.33 career ERA vs New York in four starts.

The Royals and Tigers are two of the most improved teams in baseball. I slightly favor the Tigers' pitching matchup with promising Reese Olson against Seth Lugo, a mediocre journeyman.

But why I really like the home Tigers here is the situation. Detroit was idle on Thursday, while the Royals had to sit out nearly a four-hour rain delay in nipping the Blue Jays, 2-1, at home on Thursday. The game was finally called after five innings.

Detroit has underrated pitching. Olson has pitched better than his 0-3 record and 3.80 ERA. The Tigers' hitting has picked up recently. Detroit has scored four or more runs in seven of its last eight games.

Lugo has pitched well to open the season going 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA. I see regression coming, though.

The Astros are 1-7 in their last eight games and in danger of being swept by the Cubs.

So why back Houston here? Three reasons: Justin Verlander, a rested Josh Hader and the Cubs have key injuries.

Verlander gives the floundering Astros credibility on the mound. He's facing Javier Assad. Hader, who has been the most dominant reliever entering this season, has had ample rest.

The Cubs will be minus Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Bellinger leads the Cubs in RBI's while Suzuki has driven in the third most runs for Chicago.

Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today.

This is Texas' first game at home in 12 days since returning from a 10-game road trip. The Rangers are up against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert is an emerging star with a 1-0 record and 2.33 ERA. He gets overlooked in Seattle's pitching staff because of Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but he's one of the best No. 3 starters in the league. Gilbert has a 2.88 career ERA vs the Rangers in 10 starts.

Texas starter Dane Dunning isn't in Gilbert's class with a 2-1 record and 3.91 ERA. Dunning has a 4.28 lifetime ERA against Seattle in eight starts.

Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven.

But the Red Sox are in trouble in this game. O'Neil is likely to miss his third straight game because of a concussion. Boston's bullpen is below average and this is going to be a bullpen game for them.

Reliever Brennan Bernardino is slated to start for the Red Sox. He's only expected to pitch one or two innings followed by Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox have a 4.11 bullpen ERA.

By contrast, the Guardians rank No. 2 in the majors in bullpen ERA at 2.15. This is a huge plus for Cleveland's aged starter Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed two earned runs during his past 7 2/3 innings and has a respectable 3.55 ERA.

Given these circumstances, I'll go with the Guardians especially in an underdog role.

Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. 

I'm not buying the Brewers, though, as a top team. The Padres have the superior offensive players and a strong edge in pitching with a matchup of Joe Musgrove vs Joe Ross. Musgrove's ERA the past three years is 3.05, 2.93 and 3.18. Ross is a reclamation project, who has missed much of the past two seasons because of elbow surgery. 

The Brewers' timely hitting could be rounding its course. Milwaukee stranded 15 runners in scoring position during its 6-4 loss to the Orioles on Sunday. The Brewers remain without injured Christian Yelich. 

The Padres are off a, 6-3, road win against the Dodgers last night. However, Milwaukee also has to travel. The Brewers haven't been home in eight days, having just concluded a seven-game road trip against the Orioles and Reds.

I'm looking for the Angels to bounce back and beat Boston after losing to the Red Sox last night. Trevor Story was injured in that game. That could bother the Red Sox in this matchup. It certainly hurts their middle infield situation.

I'm high on Angels starter Reid Detmers. He was sharp in his first outing this season holding the Orioles, a top-eight offense, to one run on two hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. The Angels won that game, 4-1.

Boston starter Garrett Whitlock had a 5.15 ERA last season. He's not a big innings guy and the Red Sox bullpen already is beginning to pile up innings.

We knew the A's were going to be terrible this season and they certainly have lived up to expectations. The 1-4 A's have been outscored, 38-11. They have committed more errors with 13 than they have scored runs.

If the price isn't too high, the A's are an auto-fade. I can live with this price in a pitching matchup of Brayan Bello vs washed-up 33-year-old Alex Wood.

The Red Sox have underrated starting pitching and Bello is one reason for that. He looked good in his first start opening day, holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits in five innings in a 6-4 victory.

Wood has a 16.20 ERA after giving up six runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in his first start this season, an 8-0 loss to the Guardians .He has never beaten the Red Sox.

I'll back Cleveland at around a pick price against Seattle in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie vs Emerson Hancock.

I have McKenzie ranked two tiers higher than Hancock.

McKenzie had a 2.96 ERA two seasons ago showing tremendous promise. However, he made only four starts because of injuries last season. McKenzie enters this year healthy. He had a much better spring training than Hancock with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings compared to Hancock's 10.24 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Hancock had a 4.50 ERA last year.

The Guardians aren't going to set any power records, but the Mariners averaged only 2.5 runs while batting .178 in four games against the Red Sox to open the season. Seattle hitters struck out 45 times in the four-game series.

The Royals should be much improved this season, but the Twins are superior and the price is short enough to get involved backing Minnesota. 

Kansas City has some promising hitters. The Twins have proven hitters and a much more reliable bullpen even with Jhoan Duran out.

Oh, yes, the Twins hold a huge starting pitcher edge with Joe Ryan facing Seth Lugo.

Ryan is in my second tier of top American League pitchers, way above Lugo. Ryan has dominated the Royals in his career, too, with a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA. 

The Twins won against Cole Ragans, a much better pitcher than Lugo, in the series opener. They can certainly win against Lugo.

I'm not counting the Diamondbacks out yet. Not with Zac Gallen pitching at home and Adolis Garcia out.

Nathan Eovaldi versus Gallen was the Game 1 pitching matchup. Neither pitcher made it to the sixth inning. The Diamondbacks led 5-3 until the Rangers tied in the ninth and won in extra innings.

Gallen didn't pitch that well, but Eovaldi was worse. That game was in Texas, too.

Now Gallen is back pitching at home where he was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA during the regular season.

Garcia being out with an oblique injury can't be underestimated either. He's the Rangers' top power hitter.

The Diamondbacks have proven resilient all season. I'm not ready to give up on them - at least not at this value price.

The Rangers are lucky to have the World Series even at 1-1 after pulling out an extra inning win. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Rangers, 14-7, and now are coming home for Game 3. Texas had a losing road record during the regular season.

Yet this Game 3 is being priced as a toss-up. It's time to start respecting the Diamondbacks. The Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies all discovered that the hard way. It's also time to realize that 39-year-old Max Scherzer is past his prime and not fully healthy.

Scherzer had a 9.45 ERA in two postseason starts against the Astros this month. He is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA in 29 lifetime playoff appearances. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying he's just looking for innings from Scherzer, rather than his one-time dominance, since the Rangers have a vulnerable bullpen.

I prefer Diamondbacks' rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who showed he could do the job under pressure when he shut out the Phillies on two hits with nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Pfaadt has pitched 16 2/3 innings in the playoffs. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

After sweeping the Rangers three games in Texas, the Astros return to Houston for this Game 6. That's bad news for the Astros.

The Astros were 39-42 at home during the regular season and are 1-3 at Minute Maid Park in the postseason.

I don't see ineffective Framber Valdez turning that around. Valdez had a 4.66 ERA after the All-Star break. He's been terrible in the playoffs giving up nine earned runs in two starts. He has a 7.30 ERA in his last seven home starts.

On the flip side is Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. He's been excellent in the postseason with a 3-0 record and 2.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke. He's 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 playoff appearances, including nine starts.

Taking the Rangers at a plus price is a no-brainer.

Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though.

This is going to be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies had smacked 19 homers in their previous eight playoff games this season before last night. I see them getting back on track. Philadelphia is averaging 5.6 runs during its last 10 games.

Lefty Cristopher Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies. He had a solid 3.44 ERA in 19 appearances this season, including 18 starts. The Diamondbacks have below average numbers against southpaws in several major categories, including slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

The momentum has shifted in this series with the Astros dealing the Rangers their first loss of the playoffs. I'm going to ride the Astros here as the underdog. 

Houston is 17-3 in its last 20 road games. The Astros especially like playing in Arlington. The Astros are 7-1 this year there against Texas, averaging 8.9 runs in those games.

This is an action play for me, but I do favor Houston, too, in a pitching matchup of Jose Urquidy versus lefty Andrew Heaney. Urquidy has a 1.74 ERA in his last three appearances. He has a 5-0 career mark versus the Rangers with a 2.82 ERA in seven starts. 

The Astros have very good numbers against lefthanded pitching, including No. 2 in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS and fifth in batting average.

The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros.

The last time the Astros were in Arlington was early last month and they went 3-0 against Texas scoring 13, 14 and 12 runs smacking 16 homers.

The Astros have their playoff stud, Christian Javier, on the mound. He has yet to give up a run in three postseason starts during his career spanning 16 1/3 innings.

Opposing Javier is Max Scherzer. Now Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, but this isn't an ideal spot for him. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 12 after sustaining a muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. The Rangers are hoping to get around 70 pitches from Scherzer.

The Astros torched Scherzer for seven runs in three innings when they buried Texas, 12-3, on Sept. 6.

The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener.

No letup now from the Phillies. They are strong favorites for this Game 2 home game and I see them coming through in a pitching matchup of Merrill Kelly versus Aaron Nola.

Kelly had a 2.59 home ERA, but his road ERA during the regular season was 4.07. He's also been giving up too many walks - 18 in his last six starts. The Phillies, with their top-10 offense, can take advantage. They are averaging 5.6 runs in their last eight games.

Nola was a solid 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA when pitching at Citizens Bank Park.

Perhaps it was the pressure of playing in their first home playoff game in nine years before a packed crowd. But the Orioles let Game 1 of their playoff series against the Rangers slip by in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. 

The Orioles have proven resilient all season. I see them bouncing back behind rookie pitcher Grayson Rodriguez against lefty Jordan Montgomery. 

Rodriguez, a high ceiling prospect, found his groove down the home stretch. He didn't allow more than two earned runs during any of his last six starts. Rodriguez was 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. 

Texas finished the regular season with a losing road record. Baltimore was 49-32 at home.

The Orioles also were 36-17 versus lefty starters. No other team had more than 30 victories against southpaw starters. 

Montgomery has been pitching well, too. But he has a 3.72 day time ERA and the Orioles were in the top-10 in many offensive categories against lefties including, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. 

The Orioles were far-and-away the most profitable team for bettors this season. I have no qualms backing them at this low of a home lay price.

The Diamondbacks are on house money after upsetting the Brewers, 6-3, in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Brewers on Tuesday. Arizona scored six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings off Milwaukee's two best pitchers, Corbin Burnes and closer Devin Williams.

Now the pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus Freddy Peralta.

Gallen is the superior pitcher yet Arizona is an underdog. I'll take the plus price with the loose Diamondbacks and with Gallen, who in two starts against the Brewers this season held Milwaukee to one earned run on six hits and two walks with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history.

Minnesota has lost 18 consecutive postseason games!

The Blue Jays had a better regular season record than the Twins. Gausman is a better pitcher than Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez. Yet the Twins opened as the favorite.

Gausman is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA. He led the AL in strikeouts with 237 in 185 innings. Lopez is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA.

Wrong team favored, so I'll be on the Blue Jays.

The Cardinals have been one of the major disappointments of the season. That's the way they're finishing, too.

St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Cardinals are averaging a puny 2.1 runs per game during their last 10 games.

The Reds are 6-3 in their past nine road games. They are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, which should ensure motivation and a strong effort.

The pitching matchup is rookie Brandon Williamson versus Jake Woodford. I like Williamson better although this is an action play. Woodford is taking the place of Adam Wainwright, who was shut down after earning his 200th career victory. Woodford has a 5.09 ERA.

Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night.

So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over.

It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run.

The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means.

Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday.

Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore.

Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties.

Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified.

The Brewers have dropped three consecutive games. But they still were able to clinch the National League Central Division title on Tuesday when the Cubs lost to the Braves.

Milwaukee isn't playing that well, doesn't have much incentive after clinching last night and is facing lefty, Zack Thompson. He's mediocre at best, but the Brewers don't hit lefties very well. They rank in the bottom-12 in the major categories versus southpaws. Milwaukee is 20-25 against lefties.

The Cardinals are looking to close a very disappointing season on a strong note. They draw veteran journeyman Wade Miley.

At this plus price, I'll fade Milwaukee given the circumstances.

Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times.

The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse.

I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games.

The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games.

Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road.

This is a cheap price to get the Rays, who have won 20 more games than the 76-81 Red Sox.

Tampa Bay is averaging seven runs in its last three games and draws Brayan Bello, a promising pitcher who has hit the wall with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Bello was shelled by the Rangers in his past start last Wednesday giving up eight runs in three innings.

The Rays hold a big edge on the mound starting Tyler Glasnow, who is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 10 career starts versus Boston. He faced the Red Sox earlier this month and struck out 14 in six innings allowing just one run.

Tampa Bay has owned Boston this season winning 10 of the 12 meetings.

The Guardians are out of the playoff chase. The Reds are not. Cincinnati is in must-win mode and have hot Hunter Greene going against disappointing Lucas Giolito.

Greene is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts against the Twins this past Wednesday. Greene is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his past four starts. He has 35 strikeouts in his last 24 innings.

Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. He's been tagged for 37 homers. He's becoming more of a journeyman than an above average starter. Giolito's teams are 2-12 during his last 14 starts.

The Reds are playing a lot of youth. Their young players are highly talented. They are on house money so they should be loose and not feel the pressure.

The Padres waited way too long. But they are on a season-best 9-1 hot streak. The Giants are going the opposite way - 2-8 in their last 10 games.

San Francisco has ace Logan Webb pitching at home here. Webb, however, is trumped by Blake Snell, the most effective pitcher in the National League.

Snell's season numbers are 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 174 innings. Webb can't match that at 10-13 with a 3.35 ERA.
What's so impressive about Snell, though, is his current form. He's working on 13 straight scoreless innings, allowing only two base runners in his past two starts. Snell is 5-1 career-wise against San Francisco with a 1.83 ERA.

San Diego is 10-1 in Snell's last 11 starts.

Rarely will I go against Webb when he pitches at home. But this is the exception, getting the much hotter team with the best pitcher in the league at a low lay price.

The pitching matchup is Shane Bieber versus Dean Kremer. That is misleading. So are the Guardians being the favorites.

Cleveland is eight games below .500 on the season. Baltimore is 37 games above .500.

The Guardians are trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. It's not realistic. The Orioles have motivation, too, being just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East.

Bieber isn't the Bieber of past dominant seasons. He was 5-6 with a 3.77 ERA before going on the IL following his July 9 start. He hadn't pitched since and will be on around an 80-pitch count.

Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.17 ERA. That ERA drops to 3.51 when he pitches on the road.

At this late juncture of the season we know who the Yankees are: A .500 team. Actually New York is 76-75. Mediocre is a fitting description.

The Blue Jays are the more motivated team being in the playoff hunt. They've won four in a row following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox with a 7-1 victory against the Yankees last night.

I find this price low to back the superior Blue Jays with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman isn't having a great year, but he's been solid. He has a career 3.28 ERA versus the Yankees in 29 appearances, including 23 starts.

Converted reliever Michael King draws the start for New York. He's pitched well, but hasn't exceeded five innings all season. King entering the rotation thins the Yankees' bullpen.

I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one.

Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement.

I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67.

Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss.

The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS.

The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14.

Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk.

Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis.

The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals.

Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors.

The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's.

The Mets took advantage of the Diamondbacks having to pitch a bottom-of-the-end rotation guy on Tuesday. But now Arizona is coming in with its ace, Zac Gallen.

Gallen doesn't pitch as well on the road, but he's still a stud and in the NL Cy Young Award conversation with a 15-7 record and 3.31 ERA. Opponents are batting only .229 against him.

The Diamondbacks are battling hard with five other teams for a wildcard playoff spot. They have incentive. The Mets don't. They are 12 games below .500. Mets manager Buck Showalter is trying to balance his veterans with youth knowing his team is in rebuild mode.

I'd stay away from this game if the Mets were going to pitch Kodai Senga because he's tough at home. But the Mets are giving Senga extra rest. Instead they are starting journeyman Joey Lucchesi, who hasn't pitched since Aug. 19. Lucchesi has made six starts this year. Only one was a quality start. So the Mets could be turning to their bullpen early.

Taj Bradley is a huge strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. Dallas Keuchel has been washed up for several years. Somehow, though, he's made his way on to the Twins' roster.

I don't see Keuchel successfully navigating through a deep Rays lineup that has power and speed. Tampa ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and steals.

Bradley has 111 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Twins strike out more than any team in the majors.

The underdog Marlins are playing well, winners of eight of their last 10 games. They catch the Brewers at what should be a good time.

This is Milwaukee's first game back home following a six-game road trip that concluded Sunday with an unbelievable loss to the Yankees. Corbin Burnes threw a no-hitter for eight innings. All together, Milwaukee pitchers didn't allow a hit for 10 1/3 innings. Yet Milwaukee lost the game in 13 innings.

That bizarre defeat has to be on the Brewers' minds as they return home, not to mention getting acclimated to seeing their families returning from a road trip. So their concentration may not be at peak efficiency.

The Brewers do have Brandon Woodruff starting. He's 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA. Very solid. But the Marlins also have a hot pitcher, lefty Jesus Luzardo. He's given up only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 18 innings with a 1.00 ERA and 0.61 WHIP during this span. Luzardo hasn't faced weak competition either during this time frame pitching against the Dodgers, Rays and Padres.

Milwaukee has never faced Luzardo before giving him the element of surprise. The Brewers fare much worse against southpaws, too. They are 62-41 versus righty starters, but 17-22 against lefties. The Brewers average only 3.2 runs against lefties, ranking in the bottom-seven in batting average and slugging percentage against them.

Fat and happy after sweeping the Rangers in Texas, the Astros got whacked at home, 11-2, by the Padres on Friday.

I see this as a great bounce back spot for Houston. The Padres are one of the biggest underachievers in baseball. They are second only to the Royals in money lost by bettors.

This is an action play for me with a pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Seth Lugo, who has been pitching well but has faced weak-hitting opponents during his last three starts.

The Astros rank fifth in runs scored, while the unclutch Padres are 17th in runs and 23rd in batting average.

Judging by this low line, the oddsmaker still hasn't fully grasped that the Orioles have the second-best record in baseball behind only the Braves. They also have the top road record in the American League at 46-25.

Baltimore has won five in a row. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 games. The Red Sox have lost 17 more games than the Orioles.

The Orioles have the better starter going with Kyle Bradish facing Tanner Houck.

Yet the Orioles are only a small favorite. Well, I certainly don't mind laying this low of a price with the superior team especially with an edge in starting pitchers.

Bradish is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during his last five starts.

Houck is 4-8 on the season with a 5.07 ERA. His home ERA on the year is 5.40.

Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore.

The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season.

Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage.

Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors.

The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field.

Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory.

Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA.

The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals.

Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.

The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury.

The Padres have been a monster disappointment this year. But they are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Giants.

Impressed? I'm not. The Giants are a struggling team and San Diego hasn't won four in a row all season.

I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus 43-year-old southpaw Rich Hill.

Walker is 14-5 with a 4.11 ERA. He has dominated the Padres in his career with a 4-3 mark, 2.51 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in eight career starts. The Padres are hitting just .178 against him.

Hill is 7-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 26 starts.

The Phillies are averaging 5.1 runs against lefties and rank sixth in slugging percentage against them.

The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. 

Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. 

The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. 

The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. 

Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. 

The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in.

This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks.

Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory.

Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer.

Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season.

I don't get the love for Miami here. The Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are one game above .500. Tampa Bay is 80-52 and has won eight of its last 10 games.

Yet the Marlins are favored.

Is the pitching matchup so strong in Miami's favor?

No.

It's Aaron Civale and a rested Tampa Bay bullpen versus Sandy Alcantara.

This isn't last season when Alcantara captured the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.28 ERA. He's been pitching better, but he's not dominant like last year. He's 6-11 with a 4.16 ERA.

Civale is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Tampa Bay was idle on Monday.

The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent.

The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale.

Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP.

Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20.

Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA.

Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs.

Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game.

As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays.

The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees.

Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros.

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope.

Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts.

Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts.

Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division.

Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors.

San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles.

The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month.

This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs.

The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season.

Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter.

Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts.

Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs.

On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito.

Reality is different.

The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team.

Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games.

Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers.

Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days.

Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA.

The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record.

He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck.

Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be.

Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts.

The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road.

After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night.

As well as they should.

The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth.

I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position.

San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings.

That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games.

I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.