| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 08-18-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are on fire winning nine of their last 10 games and 13 of their past 16. They have their best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Brewers are banged-up, have dropped nine of their last 10 NL Central Division games and are pitching journeyman southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers are the fifth different team Miley has pitched for in the last five years. St. Louis is 7-1 the past eight times facing a lefty starter. Miley has pitched surprisingly well for Milwaukee, but appears to be tailing off. He has given up five earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. During this time frame, Miley has yielded 11 hits and four walks. The Cardinals have a good vibe and momentum. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Mikolas has proven himself to be an elite pitcher, one of the most consistent in baseball. He hasn't given up more than four runs in a game all season. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. St. Louis is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
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| 08-17-18 | Giants v. Reds -115 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Reds aren't very good. We know that. But the Giants are 27-35 on the road and have a starting pitching disadvantage here. Yet the Giants opened as a favorite. I say the wrong team is favored. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is pitching his finest ball. He's given up just one run during his past two starts spanning 14 innings. He has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. A big key for DeSlafani is learning to become a pitcher and not just a thrower. He's done an excellent job of mixing his pitches in his last two starts. At first I wasn't going to get involved in this game. But that changed when Dereck Rodriguez was scratched and Casey Kelly was named as his replacement. Rodriguez landed on the DL with a hamstring strain caused during that ridiculous altercation this past Tuesday in the Giants-Dodgers game when Yasiel Puig and Nick Hundley went at it causing a bench-clearing incident. Kelly isn't big-league starting material. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Triple-A Sacramento this season. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings in relief for the Giants this season. The Reds should have an excellent scouting report on him because Pat Kelly, Casey's father, is a bench coach for the Reds. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 away games when going against a foe with a losing home record. They also have dropped the past four games played in Cincinnati.
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| 08-16-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
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This price is low enough to back the Diamondbacks, who have 20 fewer losses than the rebuilding Padres. Arizona has won 21 of its last 31 road games. The Diamondbacks come in with a rested bullpen having been idle on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks have also won 35 of the past 52 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Arizona starter Clay Buchholz has been very good going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. The righthander holds an edge against Jacob Nix, who is making only his second big league start. San Diego is 7-20 in its last 27 home games. The Padres have dropped 11 of their last 12 home games when meeting a foe with a winning road mark.
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| 08-14-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
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The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter. |
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| 08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -128 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
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The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there.
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| 08-12-18 | Nationals -125 v. Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
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I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. He's in great form, too, having allowed five earned runs in his last four starts spanning 27 innings. Scherzer has a 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. It's a bargain to get him at such a low lay price. Scherzer's task is made easier with the Cubs' best hitter, Kris Bryant, out with a shoulder injury. The Nationals have won a staggering 71 percent of Scherzer's last 72 starts. Cubs starter Cole Hamels is past his prime. Hamels is making his third start for Chicago. The 34-year-old has been sharp in his first two outings for the Cubs, but those games were against the Pirates and Royals. I don't see Hamels stepping up enough to match Scherzer.
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| 08-12-18 | Pirates v. Giants -106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
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It's way past thinking Dereck Rodriguez is some novelty item being the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. The younger Rodriguez very well could win Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. Rodriguez and the Giants are very tough at AT&T Park. Rodriguez is 3-0 at home with a 1.99 ERA. He has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last eight starts. San Francisco is 33-26 at home this season and 7-2 in Rodriguez's last nine starts. Opposing Rodriguez is Joe Musgrove, who is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in day games this season. The price is right to back Rodriguez and the Giants.
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| 08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
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Robbie Ray is having his problems at Chase Field, but he's been very strong on the road with a 2.57 ERA in seven away starts. Ray, a lefty, is holding road foes to a .195 batting average. Arizona has won 19 of its last 27 road games. Cincinnati is 8-20 during its past 28 home games versus a southpaw starter. Reds starter Matt Harvey has been terrible since the All-Star break with a 10.66 ERA in three starts. Harvey hasn't finished six innings during any of his past six starts |
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| 08-10-18 | A's -109 v. Angels | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
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The A's are 6-1 in their last seven games and are a much better team than the Angels. Southpaw Brett Anderson is in good form for Oakland, while Angels starter Felix Pena is not. Pena is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA. The A's hold a vastly superior bullpen. The Angels have lost 17 of the past 24 times when facing a lefty starter. They have been without Mike Trout, who is questionable here.
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| 08-10-18 | Indians -138 v. White Sox | 0-1 | Loss | -138 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
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The rebuilding White Sox are on pace to lose 103 games. They are 21-36 at home and likely to lose to the Indians. Cleveland is 8-2 versus Chicago this season winning those games by an average of `nearly four runs per game. I'm a fan of Indians rookie starter Shane Bieber. He's 6-2 with 58 strikeouts in 57 innings. The White Sox have the disadvantage of never having gone against him. Cleveland is 7-3 in Bieber's starts. Opposing Bieber is southpaw Carlos Rodon. The Indians are 18-12 versus lefty starters. The Indians have already seen Rodon twice this season. Rodon has a 4.76 ERA in his two starts this year against the Indians. The White Sox were idle on Thursday. That's not necessarily a good thing, though, as Chicago is 13-38 following an off day.
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| 08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +123 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
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The Rockies are very tough at Coors Field where they have won 17 of the past 22 times. They have a favorable spot, too, with LA having played late Wednesday night against the A's in Oakland while the Rockies played a home day game Wednesday. Dodger starter Ross Stripling hasn't been the same pitcher he was before the All-Star Game. He has a 9.35 ERA in two starts following All-Star break. Colorado starter Tyler Anderson has a respectable 3.64 ERA at Coors this season. The Dodgers have scored only 10 runs during their last five games for an average of two runs per game.
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| 08-08-18 | Red Sox -139 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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The Red Sox dominate baseball with an 80-34 record and they dominate the Blue Jays beating them 24 of the past 33 times, including going 11-3 versus them this season. Boston has had little difficulty either at Rogers Centre winning 16 of the past 20 times there. You usually can't go wrong backing the Red Sox especially when they aren't overinflated which is the case here. The Blue Jays are in a bad state with rumors that their manager John Gibbons will be let go. The pitching matchup is Brian Johnson versus Mike Hauschild and Boston owns a huge bullpen edge. Johnson has a 2.57 ERA in seven starts this season. The Blue Jays picked up Hauschild after the Astros cut him on July 30. Hauschild had a 4.88 ERA in 19 minor legue starts this season pitching for Houston's Triple A team. He has a 6.43 big league ERA in five appearances. He certainly doesn't project to have success against a potent Boston lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average. |
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| 08-05-18 | Yankees +121 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
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The Red Sox are going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees. I don't see the prideful Yankees getting swept on national television in a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus southpaw David Price. Tanaka hasn't allowed a run during his past two starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up just six hits with 17 strikeouts during this span. This was part of a great July for Tanaka, who posted a 1.75 ERA in his four July starts. He is 6-0 on the road this season with the Yankees winning eight of his last 11 away matchups. New York is 20-8 in Tanaka's last 28 overall starts. The Red Sox are down three key infielders - Rafael Devers, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia. The Yankees have won 24 of their 31 games versus lefty starters this year. The Yankees have taken care of Price in their two meetings against him. Price has yielded 12 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, including surrendering a staggering six homers.
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| 08-05-18 | Braves -119 v. Mets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
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I think this is a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. Yes, the Mets defeated Atlanta, 3-0 on Saturday, but that was with Zach Wheeler. Now the Mets drop down to rookie Corey Oswalt, a fill-in for injured Steven Matz. The Braves had outscored the Mets, 27-5, at Citi Field in going 5-0 before yesterday's game. Atlanta is 11-4 versus the Mets this season. The Mets are in clear rebuild mode and definitely are fade material whenever Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler aren't pitching. Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has a good history against the Mets with with a 9-6 lifetime record and 2.33 ERA. He's held the Mets to two runs on 11 hits in 21 innings this season for an 0.86 ERA. The Mets rank 30th in batting average. They haven't scored more than four runs in their last eight games.
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| 08-03-18 | Tigers +168 v. A's | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
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Brett Anderson should not be this high of a favorite. Even against the Tigers. Detroit is underrated especially against southpaws like Anderson. The Tigers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and are 16-13 against lefties on the season. It's not a fluke the Tigers are three games above .500 versus southpaws. They have the highest batting average in the majors when facing left-handed starting pitching at .274. Anderson has made just one home start for Oakland this year. That was against the Astros on May 7 and it was a disaster. The A's lost 16-2 as Anderson was shelled for nine runs, seven of which were earned, on 10 hits in just three innings. Anderson has a 5.46 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in seven games, including six starts. Anderson's ERA on the season is 5.55, which is considerably higher than Tigers starter Blaine Hardy, whose ERA is 3.61. Hardy's career ERA versus the A's is 3.14. He earned a victory against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday allowing one run on four hits in five innings. The Tigers shouldn't lack for motivation having been swept by Oakland at home in June.
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| 08-02-18 | Giants +158 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-1 | Win | 158 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
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This sure looks like a 4-3 type of game so I'm very interested in taking a huge 'dog price with Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. Arizona starter Zack Greinke is having a strong season. But his ERA isn't that much lower than Bumgarner's at 2.96 compared to 3.06. So this really comes down to a value play. Bumgarner has a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts, holding batters to a .191 average in this span. The Giants enter this game with their confidence up having swept the Padres on the road.
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| 08-01-18 | Cubs -112 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
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Nick Kingham and his 4.80 ERA isn't likely to be in the Pirates' starting rotation too much longer with Chris Archer coming on board. I'm going to lay a short road price with the better team, Cubs, and what I see as a rejuvenated Cole Hamels. Hamels gets a repreive coming to the Cubs from the 46-63 Rangers. Hamels had a bad July. He said his arm is fine. His problem was mechanics, which he said have been straighten out now. Hamels should do better in the National League. The four-time All-Star is past his prime, but he still knows how to pitch and his fastball still has zip as evidenced by 114 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. Hamels last faced the Pirates two years ago. He has a 1.22 career ERA in five starts versus Pittsburgh. Kingham is off a bad start against the lowly Mets where he yielded six runs in three-plus innings on seven hits and four walks during a 12-6 home loss this past Thursday.
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| 07-30-18 | Astros -108 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
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The Astros head into this important AL West Division series in a bad state of mind. Houston has lost four games in a row for the first time this season. Perhaps the Astros took the Rangers, who are last in the division, too lightly and were swept by them at home. Whatever. They certainly won't do that against the Mariners and they have a strong pitcher going to make sure of that in Gerrit Cole. Sometimes it is better to go on the road. That could be the case here. Houston is 36-16 in its last 52 away games. The Astros have won in eight of their past last nine games in Seattle. Cole is 10-2 with a 2.54 ERA. He trumps James Paxton, who has thrown less than an inning during the last three weeks because of a back problems.
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| 07-29-18 | Dodgers -138 v. Braves | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
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I cashed with the Dodgers Saturday and see no reason to get off them today in a matchup of Ross Stripling versus fading Sean Newcomb, who is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Newcomb also has a 4.21 ERA in day games. Stripling has a fantastic 114-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is proving to be one of the Dodgers' most reliable pitchers. LA is 4-0 in his last four outings. The Braves are 5-13 in their last 18 games.
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| 07-28-18 | Dodgers -124 v. Braves | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
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These teams are going in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games and are back to being the team to beat in the National League after acquiring Manny Machado. LA is 21-9 during its past 30 road games. The Braves are 5-12 in their last 17 games. They haven't been competitive during their last three games losing by a combined 15 runs. The pitching matchup is Alex Wood versus Max Fried. Wood has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts. He has won his past five decisions. Fried has a 3.92 ERA. He has made only three starts this season and hasn't pitched since July 5 due to a blister. The Braves have a huge gap in their bullpen with closer Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury.
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| 07-26-18 | Brewers v. Giants -108 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
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Dereck Rodriguez is a lot more than just the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. He's a legitimate rookie-of-the-year candidate. Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. San Francisco is 7-0 in Rodriguez's last seven appearances. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past five starts. Milwaukee has never faced him giving Rodriguez an edge in surprise. The Brewers are going with veteran journeyman Wade Miley, who has a 3.90 ERA in 11 outings versus the Giants, including 10 starts. Miley has had problems pitching in San Francisco with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts there. The Giants are very tough at home going 31-19 at AT&T Park. The Brewers are just a .500 road club. They have dropped their last six away contests and have had problems historically at AT&T Park losing 16 of the past 21 times there.
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| 07-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
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Jon Lester has been the Cubs' best pitcher this season. I like him at home laying a short price against a struggling Robbie Ray. Ray was outstanding last year. But the southpaw has yet to rediscover last season's form since coming off the DL. He has a 7.65 ERA in his last four starts. Ray has surrendered seven homers during this four-game span. The Cubs rank in the top four in runs scored and batting average. They are 17-5 the past 22 times facing a southpaw starter. Lester has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past nine starts. He has a 3.12 home ERA this season despite giving up eight earned runs in his last start at Wrigley Field when a heavy wind was blowing out. That's not going to be the case today. Lester is 7-1 in day games this season. The Cubs usually perform well for Lester having won 74 percent of his last 54 home starts.
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| 07-24-18 | Cardinals -111 v. Reds | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
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I'm not sure what the Cardinals are going to get from lefty Austin Gomber, who will be making his first big league start here. But I do know that I want no part of Homer Bailey. The 32-year-old Bailey will be making his first big league start since May 28. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA. He's in the argument for worst starter in the league. He wasn't much better in the minors going 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Bailey has a terrible history versus St. Louis, too, with a 6-14 record and 5.71 ERA in 25 career starts. The Reds have lost 18 of Bailey's last 22 home starts. This isn't a huge surprise considering Bailey's ERA in his last 17 home starts is 7.61. Being a flyball pitcher at Great American Ballpark isn't a formula for success especially when the pitcher is washed up, which Bailey is. Bailey will have to deal with the hottest hitter in the league, Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals are high on Gomber, who had good metrics in the minors such as a high swing rate.
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| 07-23-18 | Padres v. Mets -175 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 1 h 31 m | Show |
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Huge starting pitching edge. Excellent spot. The Mets have those two key factors going their way here While the Mets were idle yesterday, courtesy of a postponement against the Yankees, the Padres had to play a doubleheader against the Phillies Sunday. As disappointing as the Mets have been, the Padres hold a lower win percentage. The rebuilding Padres have lost 22 of their last 28 games, including seven of their past eight. The Mets are throwing Jacob deGrom, who leads the majors with a 1.68 ERA. deGrom has allowed just one run in his last two starts spanning 16 innings. He has a 1.53 career ERA against the Padres in five starts. deGrom hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during his last 16 starts. San Diego ranks among the bottom four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
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| 07-22-18 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
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There are reasons why the Dodgers are road chalk against the Brewers. The two primary ones are they could turn into a superpower with the recent acquistion of Manny Machado and they have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Alex Wood versus Brent Sutter. As an added plus, the Dodgers expect to have Justin Turner back in their lineup today after he had missed five games with a hip injury and have a rested Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers usually respond well to a loss having gone 15-3 the past 18 times following a defeat. They also are 13-3 the past 16 times when playing an above .500 team on the road. Sutter is a No. 5 type starter. He entered the All-Star break with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. He holds a 4.87 home ERA and has surrendered a home run in each of his last four starts. The Dodgers lead the NL in homers and now they have Machado, who is tied for ninth in homers in the majors with 24. Sutter last pitched on July 14. Milwaukee is 1-4 the past five times Sutter has pitched with seven or more days rest.
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| 07-21-18 | Giants +115 v. A's | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
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Oakland is doing well this season. But the A's are just 24-22 at home. They are not some super team and I'm not buying journeyman Trevor Cahill as a favorite against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner just pitched against the A's right before All-Star break on July 13 and won, 7-1. He gave up one run on three hits in six innings. The odds are strong Bumgarner is going to do his job. Not so with Cahill, who is pitching for his sixth team in the last five years. The A's are 1-4 in Cahill's last five starts. Cahill hasn't been sharp giving up seven earned runs on a combined 15 hits/walks during his last two starts spanning just 8 1 /3 innings. He has close to a 4.00 lifetime ERA in 18 outings against the Giants, including 15 starts. The Giants are expected to have Brandon Belt back for this game after Belt missed Friday's game to be with his wife, who was giving birth. Belt is the Giants' top power hitter leading them in homers and RBI's.
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| 07-20-18 | Astros -113 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
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The American League is governed by super powers these days. The defending world champion Astros certainly are one of those super powers. They lead the majors with a plus 188 run differential. So anytime I can get a low enough price on the Astros, I'm interested. That's the case here. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs is having an excellent season for the Angels. This is far more of a play on the Astros than a fade on Skaggs. However, Skaggs is trumped by lefty Dallas Keuchel. Not only is Keuchel in excellent form with a 1.35 ERA in three July starts, but the Angels are 9-18 versus lefty starters this season, including losing 16 of their last 21 to them. Keuchel is 10-2 lifetime versus the Angels. The Astros have won in each of Keuchel's last seven overall starts. Houston is proven on the road, too, winning 28 of its last 38 away games.
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| 07-19-18 | Cardinals +143 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
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The talent is there for the Cardinals. They just need to wake up. Maybe they have after Mike Matheny was fired this past Saturday. Matheny's relationship with a number of Cardinals had soured. That was a big factor why he was let go. The atmosphere should be better under interim manager Mike Shildt. The Cardinals are 1-0 under Shidt and begin a crucial five-game series with the Cubs today being 7 1/2 games behind the Cubs. The pitching matchup is Carlos Martinez versus Kyle Hendricks. I'm surprised the Cubs opened this high of a favorite. Chicago was hot winning 12 of 15 games leading up to the break. But that could make the Cubs a bit fat and happy since they have now opened a 2 1/2-game lead on the Brewers in the NL Central Division. There's a certain randomness factor involved because each team has been idle for three days. Randomness is a plus when taking a price like this. Martinez pitched extremely well in April, but then he got hurt in May. He wasn't sharp when he returned in June, but lately he has gotten back into an excellent groove surrendering seven earned runs during his last four starts spanning 24 innings. Hendricks is solid, but he's not having a banner year with a 3.92 ERA. He's also not going deep into games having reached the sixth inning only twice in his last nine starts. St. Louis has played better on the road this season than at home going 24-22 in its away games.
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| 07-15-18 | Yankees v. Indians -127 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
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The early action has been on the Indians and I can see why. Cleveland is 30-19 at home and has Trevor Bauer pitching against Masahiro Tanaka. Bauer finally is getting the due he deserves being named to the All-Star team while Tanaka remains overrated. I rank Bauer as among the six best pitchers in the American League. Tanaka is nowhere near that level. Bauer is in tremendous form with a 1.84 ERA in his last 11 starts. He has an amazing 111-to-20 strikeouts-to-walks ratio during this span of 78 1/3 innings. Bauer isn't cripple-shooting either. Cleveland is 8-3 the past 11 times Bauer has gone against foes with a winning record. Tanaka made his first start this past Tuesday since June 8 having been on the DL with a hamstring injury. He gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings during a 5-4 loss to the Orioles, who have the worst record in the majors. Tanaka's 7-2 record is deceiving. He's unbeaten in five decisions on the road, but his away ERA is 4.91. Tanaka has surrendered 12 homers on the road in 47 2/3 innings. The Indians rank No. 3 in the majors in runs scored and homers. They are an outstanding home team and hold a starting pitch edge justifying this lay price. |
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| 07-14-18 | Rangers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
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Injuries, lack of talent and constant trade rumors about Manny Machado have taken a huge toll on the Orioles. Baltimore has a mind-boggling 26-69 record. The Orioles may already be looking ahead to All-Star break as they have lost 17 of their last 20 games. They have dropped 33 of their first 47 home games and are 1-16 versus AL West opponents. So, yeah, at this price I'll back the Rangers. Texas isn't a good team either, but the Rangers still are 15 games better than the Orioles. The Rangers have the superior bullpen, average a run more per game than the Orioles and have a veteran edge in the starting pitching matchup with Martin Perez going against rookie Yefry Ramirez. Perez has been sidelined since Aparil 29 because of an elbow injury. He was sharp, though, in rehab going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Texas has won 11 of his last 16 starts. Ramirez has made three big league starts. They have not gone well. He's 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA. The Orioles' bullpen is hurting minus injuired setup relievers, Darren O'Day and Richard Bleier. Led by closer Keone Kela, the Rangers' bullpen is having a strong month. Kela is 23-for-23 in save opportunities this season.
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| 07-14-18 | Rays v. Twins -134 | 19-6 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
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The Rays are one of those good at home teams (26-17) bad on the road (22-29) clubs. They are struggling in Minnesota right now losing the first two games at Target Field in this series. Tampa Bay has now lost 16 of its past 21 away games. Expect the Rays to drop another road game here in a pitching matchup of Chris Archer versus Jose Berrios. On paper the pitching matchup appears even. It is not. Berrios is a rising star who has been outstanding at home with a 7-2 mark, 2.49 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Berrios is in excellent current form, too, with a 2.70 ERA during his last seven overall starts. Minnesota is 18-3 the past 21 times Berrios has pitched at Target Field, a winning percentage of 86 percent! Archer isn't the pitcher right now of seasons past. He's 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and is struggling since coming off the DL. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 innings versus the Tigers in his last start this past Monday.
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| 07-13-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +135 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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There is far more than meets the eye in this matchup making the Marlins a highly attractive home underdog. The Phillies are feeling fat and happy being the surprise leaders of the NL East and coming off a 5-4 road win against the Orioles on Thursday. The Phillies had to play the Mets in New York on Wednesday. So this marks their third different road venue in three days. Miami was idle on Thursday. The rested Marlins are proving they aren't the bottom feeder many envisioned going into the season. Miami is a respectable 34-40 in its last 74 games. The Marlins are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a righty starter at home. They draw righthanded Jake Arrieta here. Arrieta isn't close to being the elite pitcher he was during his Cy Young Award-winning 2015 season. He's given up three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He's 3-4 on the road with a 4.64 ERA. Philadelphia is 2-5 during Arrieta's past seven away starts. Arrieta has struggled during his two starts against the Marlins this season with a 9.39 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The Marlins get back their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto. He had missed the past three games because of paternity leave. While Arrieta has struggled on the road, Miami pitcher southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has thrived at home with a 1.89 ERA in six starts at Marlins Park. The Marlins have won 12 of Chen's last 16 home starts. Chen is the first lefty starter the Phillies have faced since July 1, a span of 10 games. They have seen only two southpaw starters since June 15. The Phillies are 1-5 the last six times they've gone against a lefty starter. |
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| 07-12-18 | Rays -115 v. Twins | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
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Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Rays are a season-best four games above .500. They have won 14 of their last 18 games. The price is low enough to ride them with their best pitcher, Blake Snell. Minnesota is enjoying a homestand. The Twins just concluded successful home series against the the Orioles and Royals. Those are the two worst teams in baseball. Now they step up against the hot Rays. Minnesota has lost the past seven times whe meeting an opponent with a winning record. Snell has become a monster this year. He is second in the American League in wins and ERA. Snell is 8-1 in his past 10 starts, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. Snell has given up only two runs in his past 28 2/3 innings. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Gibson has been solid this season. His record should be better, but he's been unlucky. However, he's several levels below Snell. Gibson also has a poor history versus the Rays with a 1-5 mark and 6.81 ERA. Gibson squared off against Snell back in April and the Rays blasted the Twins, 10-1. The Twins are without their main setup guy, Addison Reed, also. Reed was put on the DL because of a triceps injury.
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| 07-11-18 | Mariners +106 v. Angels | Top | 3-0 | Win | 106 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
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The price is right to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is 10 games better than the Angels in the standings and own both a starting pitcher and bullpen edge on Los Angeles. Marco Gonzalez was touted before the season as a sleeper breakout candidate and he's come through going 9-5 with a 3.64 ERA. The southpaw is back in good form giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. The Angels really struggle versus lefties losing 16 of 23 times this season when facing a southpaw starter. Jaime Barria goes for the Angels. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings. He's allowed 10 walks and four homers during this time frame. The Angels are 0-5 in his last five starts. |
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| 07-09-18 | Cubs v. Giants -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Giants are very strong at home - 28-16 on the season, including 16-6 in their last 22 home games - and catch the Cubs flying to the West Coast following an eight-game homestand. The Cubs carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and their starter, Kyle Hendricks, is in a down cycle with a 6.29 ERA in his last seven starts. Chicago is 2-5 in Hendricks' last seven outings. The Giants got their bats going putting up 13 runs against the Cardinals on Sunday. San Francisco starter Andrew Suarez has a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his past five starts.
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| 07-08-18 | Dodgers -122 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
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The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 17 away games. They are the superior team here and have a pitching matchup edge plus I prefer their bullpen especially with closer Kenley Jansen. Southpaw Alex Wood began the year slow, but has come on for the Dodgers. He's going for his fifth straight winning start. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last five outings. The Angels have yet to ever face him. Along with their current strong road mark, the Dodgers also have won 19 of their past 26 interleague games. The Dodgers are 18-12 against lefty starters this year. They draw lefty Andrew Heaney, who is up-and-down and frequently injuured. Heaney is healthy now, but not in good form. He's allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's surrendered 13 hits, five walks and three homers.
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| 07-08-18 | Rockies v. Mariners -133 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
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If you can't beat him, join him. That's the way I feel about southpaw Wade LeBlanc. I was fading LeBlanc when the 33-year-old first joined the Mariners. But he's been super going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Mariners. Seattle has yet to lose during any of LeBlanc's 13 previous starts at Safeco Field. The Mariners are 14-3 overall in LeBlanc's starts. The Rockies are 5-16 in their past 21 interleague games when facing a lefty starter. I don't see the Rockies pulling off a rare road sweep with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. He has a 4.44 ERA. The Mariners have outfield Mitch Haniger back in the lineup and sparkplug Dee Gordon is expected to start, too, today after not starting on Saturday due to a minor hip injury.
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| 07-08-18 | Reds v. Cubs -147 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
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Jim Riggleman has turned around the Reds. Cincinnati had won 14 of their last 18 games until blowing a five-run lead in losing 8-7 to the Cubs on Saturday. That loss is a momentum shifter, though. I see the rejuvenated Cubs beating the Reds again today behind their top pitcher, Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 75 percent of Lester's last 52 home starts. Lester is 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in eight home starts this season. Reds starter Luis Castillo showed intriguing potential two seasons ago. But he's regressed this season with a 5.53 ERA and only five quality outings in 18 starts this year. The price is worth laying to get Lester in this pitching mismatch.
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| 07-07-18 | Cardinals -110 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
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If there is a buy sign on Jeff Samardzija I'm certainly missing it. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL - a 6.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP - due to pectoral and shoulder injuries and he was bad while recovering in the minors with a 5.29 ERA. This is his first big league start since May 29. San Francisco is 0-5 in his last five starts. The Giants' bullpen is down closer Hunter Strickland and could get extensive work here. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez was rusty and shaky when he first returned from the DL. But Martinez is a near-elite pitcher and has looked good in his last two starts holding the Indians and Diamondbacks to a combined four runs in 12 innings. Martinez is pitching on his normal four days rest. St. Louis is 9-2 the past 11 times that has happened. The Cardinals' lineup is bolstered by the return of power-hitting middle infielder Paul DeJong and closer Bud Norris, who was cleared to pitch today after being out the past two days with a finger injury.
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| 07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -124 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
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The Angels ended the Mariners' eight-game win streak with a 7-4 win on Wednesday. I don't see the Angels beating Seattle a second straight day in a pitching matchup of rookie Jaime Barria versus lefty Marco Gonzales. Barria started fast, but the league has caught up to him. The Angels, though, have too many pitching injuries to take Barria out of the starting rotation. Barria is pitching today in place of Tyler Skaggs, who went on the DL Wednesday with a right adductor strain. Barria has a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 during his past four starts. The Mariners just saw Barria on June 12 scoring three runs on eight hits in five innings against him. The Mariners have won 21 of their last 27 home games. Gonzales has been a solid middle-to-bottom-of-the-rotation starter. He's given up two runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. At 26 he is in his prime and is further along in his pitching career than the 21-year-old Barria. Seattle has a far better bullpen than the Angels, too. The Angels are 6-15 on the season versus lefties. They have lost 10 of the past 11 times on the road when going against a southpaw starter.
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| 07-04-18 | Giants v. Rockies -120 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
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The Giants are a different team on the road. A bad team. San Francisco is nine games under .500 on the road and have lost 68 percent of their past 52 games at Coors Field, including the first two of this series by a combined margin of 13-3. Nolan Arenado is on fire with 21 RBI's in his last 14 games, including nine homers, and Charlie Blackmon has started to heat up. Those are Colorado's key cogs. I don't see rookie Andrew Suarez and a Giants bullpen lacking a closer being able to stop the Rockies in Coors. Southpaw Tyler Anderson is coming off a brilliant performance shutting out the Dodgers for eight innings while allowing only four hits in a 3-1 victory this past Friday. The Dodgers have scored 31 runs in their last three games so Anderson's outing wasn't a fluke. Anderson is backed by two stud late-inning relievers, Adam Ottavino and Wade Davis. The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 games when facing a lefty starter.
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| 07-04-18 | Astros -154 v. Rangers | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
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The price has come down enough where I can get involved and not feel ripped off. The Astros halted a three-game losing streak by defeating the Rangers, 5-3, at Globe Life Park. I felt so strong about an Astros victory in that game that I laid 1 1/2 runs with them on the run line. The price isn't large enough to have to do that in this game. I'm surprised it isn't. Houston is 25 games above .500 while the Rangers are 10 games under .500. The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 12 of the last 13 times there, including the past seven. Not only does Houston have a big offensive edge, but also a major pitching advantage in a matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Mike Minor. Cole has thrived since coming to the Astros. He's 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA this season. Cole has dominated the Rangers going 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four career starts, including a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings this season. Minor, by contrast, is 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts versus Houston this season and has a 5.06 career ERA against the Astros in nine appearances, including six starts.
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| 07-03-18 | Indians v. Royals +180 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
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Maybe the Indians will go off on another huge win streak like last season. But for now they are not a super power. Not with a 19-24 road record. So I'm going to throw a peanut out there and take a shot at this monster plus price with the home Royals and a somewhat rejuvenated Danny Duffy against a rookie starter. Duffy has been a major disappointment. But lately he has been pitching much better as evidenced by his 3-1 mark and 2.68 ERA in his last seven starts. He has given up one run or fewer in five of those seven starts with Kansas City going 5-2 in those games. The Indians' outfield depth is down with Lonnie Chisenhall suffering a calf injury and not expected to play. Shane Bieber has been fantastic for Cleveland going 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA. This will be just his fifth big league start, though.
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| 07-02-18 | Rays v. Marlins +119 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 119 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
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There are several things to keep in mind about this matchup that go beyond the surface. The first is Tampa Bay being 8-1 in its last nine games. Impressive yes since the Rays compiled this current streak against the Yankees, Nationals and Astros. However, those games all were in Tampa. Now the Rays take to the road where they have lost 11 of the past 13 times. It's a bad spot for the Rays off a 3-2 Sunday win against the Astros and likely to take the lowly Marlins lightly. Miami, though, has a winning record in its last 11 home games. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus Wei-Yin Chen. Eovaldi is coming off a 1-0 victory against the Nationals this past Tuesday in which he allowed just one hit in six innings. Prior to that outing, Eovaldi had given up 16 runs in 23 1/3 innings spanning four starts. Eovaldi is a tease. That's his big league pattern. One great game, three bad ones. The Marlins are familiar with him, too. Eovaldi pitched for Miami from 2012-14. Here is another statistic that is misleading in this instance. Chen has a 6,14 ERA. Yet Miami has won 11 of his last 15 home starts. That's because Chen pitches very well at Marlins Park where he has a 2.30 ERA this season. Сhen is backed by perhaps the most underrated closer in baseball, Kyle Barraclough. He hasn't been scored on during his last 21 appearances spanning 20 2/3 innings. Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games.
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| 07-01-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -134 | 9-6 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
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I see Zach Godley getting the better of southpaw Derek Holland. The Diamondbacks are 18-10 versus lefty starters. The Giants have lost 18 of their last 26 road games. Godley has pitched his best at Chase Field, which will be a new experience for Holland, who has never pitched there. Godley has a 2.89 ERA at home this season. The Diamondbacks have provided him with excellent support all year averaging 4.6 runs when Godley pitches. Holland is a fifth-starter type. He holds a 4.24 ERA.
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| 07-01-18 | Indians -122 v. A's | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
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I don't see the A's sweeping the Indians. Not with Frankie Montas. The league has figured him out and he has yet to adjust. Montas has a 7,.20 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 earned runs and 24 hits in 15 innings during this brutal stretch. Cleveland ranks No. 3 in homers and sixth in runs. Mike Clevenger is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has a 3.03 ERA on the season. The Indians are not a good road team. But they've had two days to get adjusted to the Oakland Coliseum and have a big starting pitching edge here.
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| 06-30-18 | Red Sox -136 v. Yankees | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
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The Yankees may win this series against the Red Sox, but they aren't beating Chris Sale today. Sale is the premier lefty in the American League. He's pitching at his highest level, which is saying a lot. Sale is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA . He has 43 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 28 innings with opponents batting .155 against him during this time frame. His fastball is being clocked at a season-best 97 mph this month. The Yankees usually fare well versus lefties. But they have difficulty against Sale, who owns a 1.73 career ERA mark in 16 appearances against the Yankees. Sale is at least two levels, if not three levels, above Sonny Gray, who hasn't been good in three years. Gray is having a below average season this year with a 4.93 ERA. He gave up four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start this past Saturday on the road against the Rays in a 4-0 loss. Tampa Bay is 26th in homers and 25th in runs. Boston is first in runs and batting average and second in homers. The Red Sox are 43-18 versus righthanded starters. Gary is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA versus the Red Sox since joining the Yankees. He faced the Red Sox back on April 12 and was blasted for six runs on seven hits while working a season-low three innings.
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| 06-28-18 | Angels v. Red Sox -120 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
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The price has come way down so I'm going to fade the marketplace and a lay a short price with the far superior team.. Boston has the best win percentage in baseball. The Red Sox are going for the series sweep. The Angels are reeling, losers of 12 of their last 16 games and five in a row. They have multiple injuries and an unreliable bullpen. They also are going with rookie righthander Jaime Barria. He has pitched respectable, but not as much as the marketplace thinks with this huge drop in price The Red Sox are a monster 42-18 against righthanded starters. They hit righties better than any team. Boston should not be taking the Angels lightly either after nearly blowing a 6-0 lead last night. The early marketplace actitivity was against Boston, too, because the Red Sox are starting fill-in southpaw Brian Johnson. The Angels, though, have lost the last seven times they faced a lefty starter. Johnson is talented enough to give the Red Sox five respectable innings. The Red Sox offense and bullpen can take care of the rest. Boston is averaging eight runs per game in its last six games. The Red Sox have won the last six times they've started Johnson.
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| 06-27-18 | Pirates v. Mets -111 | 5-3 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
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Don't be fooled by Ivan Nova's recent strong pitching. He's always been bad on the road, which is the case again this season with a 5.10 away ERA. Nova has been anything but a slump stopper, too. Pittsburgh is 1-10 the past 11 times Nova has started following a team loss. The Pirates are 1-6 in their last seven games. They have stopped hitting averaging only 2.2 runs in their last eight games. Zach Wheeler has been looking better for the Mets holding three of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
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| 06-26-18 | Twins -110 v. White Sox | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
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Lance Lynn is back in good form and healthy. The result has been a 4-1 record and 1.73 ERA during his last six starts. The price is low enough to back Lynn and a rested Twins bullpen against the rebuilding White Sox. Lynn is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four career starts versus the White Sox. Chicago is going with Renaldo Lopez. He has been one of Chicago's better pitchers, but the White Sox still are 1-5 in his last six starts.Lopez was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs (four earned) and six hits and four walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Indians.
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| 06-25-18 | Indians -119 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
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The Indians are starting to play up to expectations as one of the superpowers in baseball. Cleveland has won seven in a row with all the victories coming by three or more runs. The price is low enough to get involved with the Indians again in a pitching matchup of Mike Clevinger versus John Gant. Clevinger is in an outstanding form going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his last 21 1/3 innings spanning his past three starts. He rates a strong edge on Gant. The Cardinals have lost in Gant's last five starts. Gant wouldn't be starting if it weren't for an injury to Michael Wacha. Gant has a 6.00 ERA on the season. St. Louis' power is way down this season as the Cardinals rank last in doubles and triples.
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| 06-23-18 | Rangers v. Twins -130 | 9-6 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
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The Rangers have won a season-high six games in a row. Look for their streak to end today, though, in this day matchup. I don't see Texas continuing its winning streak pitching washed-up Yovani Gallardo. This will be Gallardo's second start of the season. His first game was this past Sunday against Colorado at home. Gallardo was erratic like he has been for much of the past three seasons giving up five runs on six hits and three walks in five innings. Eddie Rosario returned to the Twins' lineup on Friday and Minnesoa manager Paul Molitor indicated that Eduardo Escobar would be back starting, too, on Saturday. Escobar was limited to a pinch-hitting role on Friday after being hit in the elbow with a pitch on Thursday. Escobar and Rosario are Minnesota's two top hitters. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi has pitched well against all opponents except the Indians this season. If you discount Cleveland, Odorizzi has held 11 of 12 foes to three earned runs or fewer. He also has a strong history against the Rangers going 4-0 against them with a 2.02 ERA in six career starts.
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| 06-21-18 | Red Sox -122 v. Twins | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
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The Twins are going for a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox here. Boston hasn't been swept in a series all season. I don't see that changing in this matchup. This is a day game. The Red Sox have won 78 percent of their day games this season going 18-5. They also are 26-15 on the road. Minnesota is barely above .500 at home with a 19-17 mark. The pitching matchup is Rick Porcello against Kyle Gibson. Porcello has proven reliable this season, not as good as he was two seasons ago when he went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA but much better than last year. He is pitching on extra rest, too. Boston is 8-2 the past 10 times Porcello has thrown on five days rest. Porcello has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He has a solid 3.43 ERA in day games. Boston's key bullpen arms are well rested. The Twins are averaging just 2.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson is 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA at Target Field this year. Minnesota is 4-7 in his last 11 starts.
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| 06-19-18 | Braves +102 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 102 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
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I'm a fan of Braves rookie pitcher Mike Soroka. The Calgary native should be extra pumped pitching in Canada against the Blue Jays. Soroka has impressed during his first four big league starts with a 2.57 ERA. The Blue Jays enter this series fat and happy after a surprising sweep of the Nationals. Despite that, Toronto is not a good team. The Blue Jays are five games below .500 while the Braves sport a 42-29 mark. Toronto only is a .500 team at home, while Atlanta is 21-16 on the road. The Braves average a run higher when going against lefty starters and they draw southpaw Jamie Garcia here. The 31-year-old Garcia has had his career derailed by multiple injuries. He's now not much more than a borderline fifth starter. He's had just two quality outings during his last 11 starts. The Braves are familar with Garcia since he pitched for them last season compiling a 4-7 record and 4.30 ERA. The Blue Jays are missing suspended closer Roberto Osuna leaving their bullpen vulnerable and also remain without injured third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was their most feared hitter.
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| 06-17-18 | Tigers +100 v. White Sox | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
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Southpaw Blaine Hardy has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Detroit has a winning record in his 10 appearances. Hardy has a respectable 3.55 ERA and has a chance to stay in Detroit's starting rotation. Hardy defeated the White Sox three weeks ago holding them to one run in seven innings. The White are bad versus lefties - 6-10 - and have been terrible at home going 12-23.
Detroit has dominated Chicago this season beating the White Sox six of seven times. The Tigers have won the past five times in Chicago. I'm not a fan of White Sox starter James Shields, who is well past his prime at 36. The White Sox are 3-8 in Shields' starts this season. Shields has a 4.63 ERA on the year and a 4.44 career ERA in 27 starts against the Tigers. |
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| 06-17-18 | Nationals -120 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
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I can't see the Blue Jays sweeping the Nationals. Washington is the superior team in all aspects and has a pitching edge with Tanner Roark facing righty Sam Gaviglio. The Nationals have won 20 of their last 27 games versus righthanded starters. Roark is a solid middle-of-the-road type pitcher. He has a 3.03 ERA in 21 career interleague games, including 18 starts. Gaviglio isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting pitching rotation. He's coming off a game in which he allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the light-hitting Rays this past Monday. Gaviglio has a 7.04 road ERA this season.
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| 06-15-18 | Rockies +100 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
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Texas has lost six in a row and has its worst record of the season. So, who are the Rangers calling on today to try to halt this losing skid? Yohander Mendez. Who? He's a guy who is 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA this season - in th minors. This will be his first big league start. Mendez's big league track record isn't glowing either. He's made 10 career relief appearances spanning 16 innings and has a 7.31 ERA. The Rockies are opposing him with Chad Bettis, who has a 4.40 ERA. Bettis, though, has proven he's far better away from Coors Field. He is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA this season in his road outings. Bettis should be highly motivated, too, being a native of Lubblock, Texas. A huge plus for the Rockies is the return of ace setup man Adam Ottavino from the DL. Ottavino has been one of the top relievers with a 0.95 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. Colorado has a winning record when Ottavino has been healthy.
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| 06-12-18 | Pirates +135 v. Diamondbacks | 8-13 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
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There's bad blood in this series. So this isn't going to be some sleepy non-division game for the Pirates. They will be up for this matchup especially after blowing a 5-0 seventh inning lead against the Diamondbacks last night. Trevor Williams is ptiching on extra rest. He's 7-1 the past eight times he has started on five days rest. Williams was pitching better earlier in the season than he is now, but he'll be extra motivated here. He's an Arizona State alum. Williams faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and gave up two runs in 11 innings. Diamondbacks starter Clay Buchholz has been pitching well, but some regression is due for the 33-year-old, who has a fragile arm.
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| 06-12-18 | Twins -102 v. Tigers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
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The Twins have dominated the Tigers beating them nine of the last 11 times. They are 5-0 in their last five games at Comerica Park. I rate Twins starter Jake Odorizzi higher than converted Blaine Hardy, who isn't likely to stick too much longer in Detroit's starting rotation. Odorizzi has a career 2.28 ERA in four starts versus the Tigers.
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| 06-12-18 | Nationals +160 v. Yankees | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
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Maybe if the Yankees had Luis Severino pitching, I'd stay away from the Nationals. But that's not the case here. Washington is catching a huge price going against CC Sabathia. That puts me on the Nationals. Tanner Roark has been reliable for Washington reaching the seventh inning in all but one of his 12 starts this season. The Yankees are batting just .176 in their last four games. They just were shut out by Seth Lugo and the Mets this past Sunday night. It's not a good spot either for New York. This is the Yankees' first home game since May 30. They've played the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers and Mets during their past four series. Now they step up in class. Sabathia beat the Blue Jays in his last outing, 7-2. Before that game, though, he had allowed 16 runs in 14 1/3 innings during his previous three starts. The 37-year-old has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. The Nationals could get an added boost with Daniel Murphy set to make his season debut. The Nationals' outfield already has been strengthened with Adam Eaton back from a lengthy injury.
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| 06-11-18 | Angels -110 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
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A healthy Andrew Heaney is a promising pitcher. A healthy Wade LeBlanc is a journeyman. Both teams have been playing well. But I see regression coming for LeBlanc, who has a 2.95 ERA, and for the Mariners, who are 21-9 in one-run games. That's the most one-un victories in the majors. The Angels are 10-5 in their last 15 games, including 6-1 during their past seven. Heaney has a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.35 career ERA versus the Mariners in three lifetime starts. The Angels have one of the top road marks in the majors at 20-11.
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| 06-10-18 | Cardinals -115 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
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As long as the price is right, which it is here, the Cardinals are worth backing against the Reds. St. Louis owns Cincinnati having defeated the Reds 13 straight times. St. Louis also has won the past 11 times at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals own all the edges against the Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, including a starting pitching advantage. Carlos Martinez has gone 13 scoreless innings against Cincinnati this season. He goes against Anthony DeSclafani, who is making just his second start since 2016 following a major injury. DeSclafani is rusty and not in Martinez's class. The Reds' bullpen also carries a high fatigue rating.
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| 06-09-18 | Angels v. Twins +103 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
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Kyle Gibson has won just one game this season. But that figure is misleading. Gibson has pitched well this year holding nine of his 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The Twins are 14-6 in Gibson's last 20 games starts going back to last season. Minnesota has won in each of its last four games againt the Angels when Gibson has started. The Angels are going with lefty Tyler Skaggs. They have lost in five of Skaggs' past seven starts. Minnesota is 12-4 the past 16 times going against a southpaw starter at home. The Angels are deadling with multiple injuries with Shohei Ohtani, Adrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun and Kaleb Cowart all out.
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| 06-06-18 | Orioles +105 v. Mets | 1-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
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The Mets have scored only seven runs in their last five games and face the Orioles' best pitcher, Dylan Bundy. Bundy is the one Orioles starter who can be counted on. This is a day game and Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a 5.57 day time ERA. The Mets have lost in 13 of their last 16 interleague games. |
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| 06-04-18 | Braves +106 v. Padres | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Braves are at least a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild. They are leading the NL East having just won three of four from the Nationals. Now they head to the West Coast to meet the Padres. I expect the Braves to carry their adrenalin through in winning this first game of the series. Atlanta is the supeior team and has the better starter going in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Clayton Richard. I'm surprised the Padres opened a favorite. The oddsmaker is seeing the Padres being 5-2 on their current homestand. That record, however, has been compiled against the Marlins and Reds. Those are the two worst teams in the National League. Even with those five victories, the Padres still are 16-20 at home. They rank 28th in runs scored. Atlanta is in the top-six in runs scored and batting average. The Braves are 6-3 in their last nine games and have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Teheran has pitched much better on the road going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA. The Braves are 11-8 versus lefty starters and have a strong history against Richard, who is 0-6 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 6.75 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts. Stephen's Free Monday Play Royals plus $1.65 at Angels I don't believe Nick Tropeano should be a favorite in this price range. He's a No. 5 type pitcher at best and the Angels aren't some powerhouse. They are 14-18 at home, have a weak outfield aside from the great Mike Trout and are vulnerable in the bullpen having arguably lost their two best relief pitchers, Keynan Middleton and Blake Wood, to season-ending elbow injuries. Kansas City has won seven of its last 12 games. Until yesterday, the Royals had gone seven consecutive games without an error. Royals starter Danny Duffy has had a rough season, but he's strung together two straight good outings giving up two runs and eight hits in 13 2/3 innings against the Rangers and Twins. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll put a peanut on the Royals. |
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| 06-03-18 | Phillies -123 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
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The Phillies have some young talent that is reaching maturity. It's one reason they are a surprising six games above .500. Another reason for their above average showing is Jake Arrieta is pitching as well as he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2015. Arrieta isn't getting as many strikeouts as he did three years ago, but he has the highest ground ball rate in the majors this season. Arrieta has permitted just three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 30 innings. He hasn't allowed an earned run during his past two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. The Giants are a below .500 team. They don't get Madison Bumgarner back until Tuesday and remain without injured Johnny Cueto. Because of this some young San Francisco pitchers have had to make starts. Dereck Rodriguez gets that chance in this game. This will be his first big league start. He pitched for the first time in the majors this past Tuesday and gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies. Arrieta versus the largely untested Rodriguez is a huge edge for the Phillies, who have also been getting great bullpen pitching. This edge is even higher considering the Giants could be without their two best offensive players. Brandon Belt is on the DL with an appendectomy and Buster Posey is day-to-day because of a bruised elbow.
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| 06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
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A major reason why the Marlins have the worst record in the National League is their lack of offense. Miami ranks last in the majors in runs scored and homers. The Marlins were dominated last night by Clay Buchholz, who is on the downside of his career having pitching for three teams in the last three years.Yet Miami managed only one run on six hits in seven innings versus Buchholz, who struck out nine while walking just one. If the Marlins had that much trouble against Buchholz they really figure to struggle against Zach Greinke, who also changes speeds well and still retains his elite status especially when pitching at home. Greinke is 15-1 at Chase Field during the past two seasons. He has a 1.69 home ERA in six starts this year limiting opposing hitters to a .184 mark. Arizona has won 20 of Greinke's past 26 home starts. Greinke is 5-0 lifetime against the Marlins, who have lost the past six times when going up against a righthanded starter. Miami has dropped 32 of its past 45 away games. The Marlins are 1-5 during their last six games at Chase Field.
Rookie lefty Caleb Smith has been up-and-down for the Marlins. He's 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. The rebuilding Marlins are giving Smith a long leash. Smith is capable of coming up with a good performance. But the Diamondbacks have finally begun showing some offense scoring 30 runs in their last four games. That's the most they've scored in a four-game stretch all season. Arizona also is 13-7 this season against southpaw starters. |
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| 06-01-18 | Reds -103 v. Padres | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
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Now that there has been a switch in favorites, I'm going to go against the line move and take the Reds. Cincinnati has better hitters than San Diego and I like Tyler Mahle more than the totally untested Walker Lockett. This will be Lockett's big league debut. He comes up from Triple-A El Paso where he wasn't pitching well with a 2-5 record and 5.31 ERA. Now he has to face Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. I would take those three guys above any of the Padres hitters with Wil Myers still on the DL. This is what Padres manager Andy Green was quoted as saying about Lockett: "...His numbers are not great right now with El Paso, but this is the time when you start taking looks at guys and he has the opportunity to come up here and establish himself and possibly earn another shot the next time around." That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
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| 06-01-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies -105 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
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This is a cheap price to get the Rockies at home against the Dodgers in what shapes up as a bullpen game for LA. It looks like Scott Alexander is going to get the start now for the Dodgers, but this is an action bet for me meaning I'm taking the Rockies regardless of who the Dodgers start. The Dodgers may be distracted, too, with Clayton Kershaw leaving his last start due to back tightness after just returning from the DL. The Rockies are playing better at home winning their past two series at Coors Field. Their starter, Tyler Anderson, knows how to pitch at Coors. The Dodgers have a losing road record.
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| 05-30-18 | Cubs -120 v. Pirates | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
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The Pirates are a mess and the price is low enough to get involved with the Cubs in a pitching matchup of Kyle Hendricks against Joe Musgrove. Hendricks is as steady as ever with five quality starts in his last six outings. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts at PNC Park. It's safe to believe Hendricks is going to be stingy and the Cubs hold a huge bullpen edge. Chicago has won four of its last five games while the slumping Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have dropped four in a row. Musgrove is more of a reliever. This is his second start of the year. He has made 26 career starts and has a 5.11 ERA in those appearances.
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| 05-29-18 | Phillies +165 v. Dodgers | 6-1 | Win | 165 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
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I like the value with the Phillies here. Philadelphia is 29-22 while the Dodgers are three games below .500. But most of all I like a hot Jake Arrieta being this large of an underdog. Arrieta has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers are 5-12 during their past 17 games going against a righthanded starter. Kenta Maeda pitches much better at Dodger Stadium than on the road, but he's trumped by Arrieta. The Phillies have an underrated bullpen. They are a very live 'dog at a very good price.
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| 05-29-18 | Cubs -115 v. Pirates | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
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This is a short price to get the much superior Cubs here with a much superior pitching advantage. Jon Lester is having another strong season posting a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts. He hasn't surrendered more than two runs in each of his last five starts. The Pirates are going with rookie Nick Kingham to fill in for injured Ivan Nova. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have bullpen issues.
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| 05-29-18 | Nationals +107 v. Orioles | 3-2 | Win | 107 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
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Dylan Bundy is Baltimore's best pitcher. But the Orioles still have lost 10 of his past 14 starts. Washington has won 68 percent of its last 59 road games when facing a righthanded starter. The Orioles are in rebuild mode with the second-worst record in baseball. The Nationals are 19-6 in their last 25 games. They also are one of the best road clubs at 18-8. Jeremy Hellickson has exceeded expectations pitching for the Nationals posting a 2.13 ERA in seven starts. The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Baltimore also has dropped its past nine interleague games.
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| 05-29-18 | Astros -117 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Yankees aren't quite as good as the defending world champion Astros and CC Sabathia is their weak link in their starting rotation. Sabathia has a 6.05 ERA in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Rangers during his last start. The Astros have a far better offense than the Rangers. Houston is a top road team at 19-9. The Astros are 10-7 versus southpaws this season and have won 14 of their last 19 games. If it weren't for Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton would be getting a lot more respect. Morton has won his last 10 decisions going back to last year. He is 7-0 with a 2.04 ERA this year.
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| 05-28-18 | Rays +127 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 127 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
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The buy sign is on with Chris Archer, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. I'll take him at a 'dog price against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who is coming off a season high 102 pitches in his last game. Oakland has been struggling with its best power hitter, Khris Davis, on the DL managing to average only two runs per game during its past six games. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven away games.
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| 05-28-18 | Mets -121 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
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Jacob deGrom is right up there with the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and is in dominant form giving up only one run in his last 33 1/3 innings. He has 29 strikeouts in his last 19 innings. Lifetime, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA versus the Braves in 13 starts. So it's easy to back deGrom especially going against Max Fried, who has a 6.00 ERA in relief and will be making his first start of the season. This could end up being a bullpen game for the Braves. Atlanta's focus could be off for several reasons. The Braves has been on the road for the past six games, are off a huge upset win against Chris Sale and their star rookie outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., suffered a scary leg injury on Sunday. His status won't be determined until today.
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| 05-27-18 | Diamondbacks -102 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
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Frankie Montas is slated to make his first big league appearance of the season today starting against the Diamondbacks. This will be just his third start in the majors. The Diamondbacks are struggling, but I'm not buying this line. Zack Greinke still is an elite pitcher. Greinke is pitching on extra rest, too. Arizona is 12-4 the past 16 times he has pitched on five days rest. The A's can be tough at home. I recognize this. But they aren't some super power. They don't steal bases, are bad defensively, their bullpen is down a key setup man and their top slugger, Khris Davis, is out.
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| 05-26-18 | Twins +132 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
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I'm going to take this 'dog price with a hot Jake Odorizzi against 33-year-old journeyman Wade LeBlanc. Odorizzi has a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins just got back Miguel Sano, their best power hitter, from injury and have won nine of the past 13 times in Seattle. I will say LeBlanc has pitched well since joining the starting rotation. But he's never been able to achieve consistency. The Mariners are the seventh team he's pitched for since 2011. Regression to the norm is overdue. The Mariners are scraping for runs averaging 2.4 during their past five games. They are without injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano.
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| 05-23-18 | Pirates -113 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
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If the price is low enough - like it is here - I'll stand in line to fade Homer Bailey. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl is bottom of the rotation material. But Bailey shouldn't even be in the big leagues anymore. He's living off a couple of no-hitters. Bailey has been bad for several years now and he's getting worse with a 6.11 ERA. He's allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Cincinnati has lost 17 of Bailey's last 21 starts. Homer-friendly Great American Ball Park is a very bad fit for Bailey, a flyball pitcher. Kuhl has a history of pitching better on the road than at home and the Pirates hold a bullpen edge. |
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| 05-22-18 | Marlins v. Mets -110 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
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The Marlins have lost three in a row and still reeling from blowing a huge lead against the Braves this past Sunday when Atlanta scored six runs in the ninth.That was a devastating loss for such a young team. The Mets are playing much better having won four in a row. Caleb Smith is 1-3 with a 5.29 road ERA while Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a strong history against the Marlins with a 3- record and 2.15 ERA in eight starts.
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| 05-21-18 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Brewers | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
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The lay price is low enough to back Zach Greinke, who still is an elite pitcher and in great form with a 1.45 ERA during his last three starts. Chase Anderson is due to come off the DL to pitch for Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched as well as he did last season and isn't in good form having allowed nine runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. What's worrisome about Anderson is he's surrendered 10 homers already in 45 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks know Anderson well, too, since he pitched for them in 2014 and 2015.
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| 05-20-18 | Indians +124 v. Astros | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
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It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity. I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco. The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest. Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park. The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.
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| 05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -114 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
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Playing on unfamiliar Astroturf has something to do with it, but Oakland just doesn't fare well at Rogers Centre when playing the Blue Jays on the road. The A's beat the Blue Jays for just the second time in the last 14 games in Toronto last night. I don't see the A's repeating that in a pitching matchup of Brett Anderson versus Marco Estrada. Oakland is 7-19 in its last 26 games on Astroturf. Estrada is pitching on an extra day of rest. Toronto is 9-3 the past 12 times Estrada has thrown on five days rest. I've lost all hope with Anderson. He's too brittle and inconsistent. This marks his fourth start of the season. He's been a tease and sure enough he looked good in his first start. However, he's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA during his last two starts. The Blue Jays know him well since Anderson made seven starts with Toronto last season compiling a 5.13 ERA.
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| 05-15-18 | Cubs -124 v. Braves | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
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The Braves have been one of rhe surprise teams this season, but this is a bad spot for them. Atlanta is home for the first time in nine days. So concentration could be a problem. The Braves just beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday in a makeup game. So they lost their off day to get their domestic lives in order following a lengthy road trip. Look for the Cubs to even the series. They have won the past five times when playing in Atlanta. Yu Darvish goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Darvish is much better than he's shown so far with the Cubs. He returns from the DL supposedly with adjustments made. I see him getting turned around. Foltynewicz doesn't go deep into games putting a strain on a taxed Braves bullpen. He also has a poor history versus the Cubs with a lifetime mark of 0-2 and 7.36 ERA. The Braves are 3-12 in the righthander's last 15 starts. The Cubs have won 74 percent of their past 42 road games against righthanded starters.
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| 05-14-18 | Mariners v. Twins -105 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
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Seattle is about to experience life without its rock, Robinson Cano. The eight-time All-Star second baseman is out with a broken hand suffered on Sunday. That's a shock for the Mariners. I'm going to fade them in this their first game without Cano this season. It's not just Cano being out. The Mariners are pitching journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc. The Twins are 10-1 (91%) in their last 11 home games when facing a southpaw starter. The Twins have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts.
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| 05-11-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -125 | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
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Chad Bettis has been pitching very well for the Rockies this season. He's 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. Colorado is 19-7 in his last 26 home starts. |
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| 05-10-18 | Twins +136 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
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I see excellent value to the Twins. The spot and pitching matchup is good for them. Minnesota was idle on Wednesday and has won five in a row. The Twins are averaging 6.4 runs during their win streak and playing well in all aspects. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Angels. There's a good chance the Twins activate Byron Buxton from the DL for this game. He could be the premier defensive centerfielder in baseball. The Angels blanked the Rockies in Colorado Wednesday. This is their first home game in a week so their concentration may be off. The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios against Garrett Richards. I regard the 23-year-old Berrios as not just an emerging star, but a star already. Richards made just 12 starts the previous two years due to serios injuries. He has been up and down this season. Just two starts ago he was racked at home by the Yankees giving up five earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Angels have played much better on the road than at home where they are 8-10 this season. |
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| 05-07-18 | Twins +130 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 130 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
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The Twins are playing better winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They are in a great spot to make it four victories in a row. The Cardinals just got through surviving a 14-inning, 4-3 win against the Cubs in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. St. Louis likely won't have its best offensive player, Tommy Pham, in the starting lineup due to a groin injury. Closer Bud Norris probably is out, too. The Cardinals' bullpen is carrying a heavy fatigue rating having just concluded two extra inning games. But what really makes it rough for John Gant, set to make his first big league start of the season for the Cardinals, is no Yadier Molina. Forget Molina's contributions on offense. He's a Hall of Fame defensive backstop. Molina's intangibles such as calling pitches and framing strikes is off the charts as is his veteran leadership. The Twins are pitching Fernando Romero, a top-100 prospect. This will be his second big league start. Romero held Toronto scoreless in 5 1/3 innings during his big league debut this past Wednesday. Romero averaged 96 mph on his fastball while striking out five. Romero's upside is far higher than Gant's.
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| 05-06-18 | Cubs +108 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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Given that I prefer Jon Lester over Michael Wacha and the Cardinals have three important injuries, the Cubs are a worthy investment. Lester is having a strong season with a winning record and 2.73 ERA. The Cubs have won 68 percent of Lester's previous 59 starts. Lester has a solid 3.16 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis. Chicago is 4-0 the past four times Lester has gone against the Cardinals. I rate Wacha a tier lower than Lester. He's been fortunate to post a 4-1 mark this season with a 3.62 ERA. Wach has a bad history versus the Cubs going 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. St. Louis is 0-4 the last four times Wacha has gone against the Cubs. St. Louis isn't likely to have Tommy Pham, its best offensive weapon, Yadier Molina and closer Bud Norris. All suffered injuries in the Cardinals' come-from-behind victory on Saturday. The Cardinals' bullpen is further depleted with Dominic Leone out with a biceps injured.
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| 05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -116 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
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We knew the Pirates were going to be bad this season and they are starting to prove that going 6-11 in their last 17 games, including losses in their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost in its last seven road games. I don't see the Pirates getting well against the Brewers, a team they have a history of struggling against. I'm looking to fade Nick Kingham. The long-time minor leaguer made his first big league start this past Sunday and took a perfect game into the seventh inning in a 5-0 win against the Cardinals. That was a huge thrill and a great debut. It certainly caught the Brewers' notice. Kingham has a 43-41 record in nine years in the minors. The Brewers are expected to have Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun in the lineup today. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise He was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 2016. He had a bad season last year, but has returned to his form of two years ago with a 2-1 mark and 0.82 ERA. He has not allowed more than one run during each of his four starts this season. The 33-year-old is a classic late bloomer. Opponents are batting only .176 against him. If you discount the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, Milwaukee would be 11-0 in its last 11 games.
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| 05-03-18 | Yankees v. Astros -120 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
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The Astros haven't lost three straight home games all season and I don't see it happening here. Not with a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus Lance McCullers. Tanaka has a 9.00 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Astros at Minute Maid Park and a 10.38 ERA mark versus Houston in four career starts. McCullers has a very strong history at Minute Maid Park where his lifetime ERA is 2.33 compared to 4.97 on the road. McCullers is in strong form with a 3-0 mark and 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He's faced the Yankees three times in his career and is 2-0 against them with a 2.08 ERA.
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| 05-02-18 | Yankees v. Astros +115 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
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The chance to get Dallas Keuchel as an underdog is too much to pass up. Keuchel was back on track in two starts before his last outing. I see him bouncing back against the Yankees, a foe he has dominated. Keuchel is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six career regular season starts versus New York and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career playoff starts against the Yankees. Houston has won 71 percent of Keuchel's last 52 home starts. The Yankees are 1-7 in their past eight games at Minute Maid Stadium. Yankees starter Luis Severino emerged as a star last season. My handicap is based far more on Keuchel and the Astros than a fade on Severino. However, Sevrino is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in three career appearances against the Astros.
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| 05-01-18 | Brewers -113 v. Reds | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
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I'll back Chase Anderson, the Brewers' best starting pitcher, at this short road price. The 30-year-old Anderson is a late-bloomer, who turned the corner last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He's continued in good form this season with a 2.86 ERA. He has a 2.68 lifetime ERA against the Reds in seven games. Anderson has a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season holding foes to a .127 batting average. Milwaukee is 8-3 in Anderson's past 11 starts. So it's reasonable to expect a solid game from Anderson. I also like the Brewers' bullpen better than the Reds even without closer Corey Knebel. Cincinnati has the worst record in the majors at 7-22. The Reds are a better team than that, but not that much better. They just got back Eugenio Suarez, but aren't likely to have Scotter Gennett in the starting lineup due to a sore throwing shoulder. He's the Reds' leading hitter with players who have more than 83 at bats. If you discount their recent series against the Cubs, the Brewers would be 9-0 in their last nine games. I'm not a fan of Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey. He seems to throw one excellent game and four bad ones for every five outings. The Reds are 7-19 in his last 26 starts. Cincinnati also has dropped 16 of its past 21 home contests. Bailey hasn't had a winning record during the past four seasons. His ERA during the past two years is 6.65 and 6.43. He's winless this season with a 4.19 ERA. He has a 4.65 career ERA versus Milwaukee in 26 games.
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| 04-30-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
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I'm sure the Dodgers will get straighten out. Right now, though, they are mess. Their 12-15 record is deserving. They have injuries and many of their better players are off to slow starts. Arizona, by contrast, has the best record in the National League at 19-8. The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a series this season. There's no reason for things not to continue the way they have in today's game. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace, Zach Greinke. Arizona is 22-8 in Greinke's last 30 home starts, including 14-1 the past two seasons. The Dodgers are going to go with Ross Stripling, who has pitched well this season but in middle relief. He's not expected to pitch too many innings so this is looking like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been below average this season. Arizona has dominated the Dodgers winning 11 of the past 12 regular season meetings, including going 5-1 this season with a three-gamd home sweep at the beginning of the month. The Dodgers are down Justin Turner and now Yasiel Puig, who was put on the DL Sunday. LA is 1-5 in its last six games and facing fatigue issues having played four games during the last three days, including a Saturday doubleheader. This is a cheap price to lay to get Greinke especially given the circumstances.
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| 04-29-18 | Rockies -109 v. Marlins | 0-3 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
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Better team. Better pitcher. Decent line value. So, yes, I'm on the Rockies here. The knock on the Rockies is they aren't a good road team. But they are 8-3 during their past 11 away contests. And they're playing the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in the majors. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 home games. Chad Bettis has been the Rockies' most consistent starter this season. He's pitched well away from Coors Field going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. He's in good form, too, with a 2.40 ERA in his last three starts. Bettis may avoid the Marlins' best power hitter, Justin Bour, who missed yesterday's game because of back spasms. Miami starter Caleb Smith has yet to win in the majors. The rookie is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA. The Rockies have the stronger lineup and it could be bolstered even more if DJ LeMathieu and Carlos Gonzalez are able to play.
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| 04-25-18 | Rays +105 v. Orioles | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay has won four in a row. The Rays have scored 26 runs in their last three games. The Orioles are 6-17 on the season and have lost nine of their last 10. So, unless Dylan Bundy is on the mound, I'm fading the Orioles when they are chalk like they are here. The pitching matchup is Jake Faria versus Alex Cobb. Faria has a lot of upside. He's pitched well in three of his four starts this season giving up just one earned run in three of those outings. The Orioles are buried by injuries right now. Mark Trumbo and Colby Rasmus are out. Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham aren't likely to play. Trey Mancini could be out, too. These injuries have forced the Orioles to start Anthony Santander in the outfield and he's not ready for the big leagues yet. Cobb has a 15.43 ERA on the season giving up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in seven innings. Cobb signed late and I doubt he's in shape yet. The Rays know Cobb well since he pitched for them from 2011 through last season.
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| 04-24-18 | A's -109 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
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Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year. Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago.
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| 04-23-18 | Mariners -142 v. White Sox | 4-10 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
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The White Sox are 1-8 at home. They've been lit up for 57 runs during their last six games with a horrific bullpen. The White Sox offense has produced two or fewer runs in seven of their past eight games. It's not a shock then that the White Sox are riding a seven-game losing streak. So Mike Leake's task shouldn't be that difficult. Leake is more innings-eater than star, but he's reliable and has pitched well since joining the Mariners last season. The White Sox have never faced him. The Mariners are 9-2 when scoring at least four runs. That shouldn't prove difficult against Carson Fulmer, who is replacing scheduled starter Miguel Gonzalez.
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| 04-21-18 | Mariners -157 v. Rangers | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
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Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double. Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance. The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunimo
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| 04-20-18 | Indians -110 v. Orioles | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
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I respect Dylan Bundy, but the Orioles are terrible and the price is low enough to back the much superior Indians. Baltimore is 5-14, losers of six in a row. Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball, better than the Orioles in every facet. The Indians have started to get into gear winning six of their last eight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland. Bauer looked sharp in his last outing giving up two runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Tigers this past Thursday in a 9-3 win. Bauer said he had his best stuff working for him in that game. Bundy has been the Orioles' lone decent starter this season. He's been helped pitching in cold weather. Still, the Orioles don't win for him. Baltimore is 1-6 in his last seven starts. The temperatures will be in the high 50's for this game, almost balmy compared to how cold it has been. Budy has a 5.06 career ERA versus the Indians in two starts. Cleveland has won 27 of its last 37 road games. The Indians have defeated the Orioles five times in a row. |
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