I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.

Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams.

Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3.

Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it.

Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA.

Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.

But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA.

The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers.

Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday.

Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers.

Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts.

Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.

Civale has made 10 career starts versus Detroit. His team won all 10 of those starts with Civale posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.

I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. 

Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. 

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. 

Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. 

The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. 

Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately.

The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65.

Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road.

More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form.

Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers.

But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that.

I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido.

Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't lived up to last year's NL Cy Young Award season. Not even close. However, Alcantara has started to pitch better. He's coming off a five-hit, complete game, 7-1, win against the Rays this past Wednesday. Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA in five July starts.

I like Alcantara and the Marlins to beat the Phillies, who are starting southpaw Ranger Suarez. The Marlins lead the majors by a wide margin in batting average against left-handed pitching hitting .307. The Marlins also have the second-highest on base percentage versus southpaws and rank third against them in OPS.

Suarez slipped badly in July posting a 6.11 ERA.

The Marlins are getting healthy as both Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia are back in their lineup.

The White Sox managed to halt a six-game losing streak against the Guardians last night. But I see Cleveland coming back to beat the White Sox today. The White Sox have gutted their pitching staff as they became sellers in anticipation of Tuesday's trade deadline. 

Mike Clevinger could come off the injured list to start for the White Sox for the first time since June 14. Chicago's bullpen, though, figures to get plenty of work and the White Sox no longer have Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Kelly. The White Sox bullpen is inexperienced, untested and lacks a proven closer. 

Cleveland has lost 11 fewer games than the White Sox. The Guardians have promising rookie Logan Allen on the mound. He's 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched twice against the White Sox back in May and posted a 3.09 ERA against them in 11 2/3 innings. 

I'm expecting a strong bounce back effort from prideful Logan Webb today. Webb is off perhaps the worst start of his career. He was hammered for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals this past Saturday.

Webb had a 1.59 ERA in his first three July starts before that outing.

Webb is much better at home where his ERA is 2.02.

This Boston's first road game since July 19. They lost their last away game to the lowly A's.

Bad spot for the Tigers, who just dropped a doubleheader at home and had to travel to Florida. The Marlins, by contrast, were idle Thursday.

Detroit has one of the weakest offenses in baseball ranking in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS.

The Marlins have been tough at home with 31-20 record. Braxton Garrett should have a bounce-back effort facing this Tigers lineup. Miami is 14-5 in Garrett's starts this season.

Tigers starter Reese Olson is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA.

The Marlins got a much-needed boost when they beat the Rays, 7-1, two days ago in their last game.

The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez.

I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen.

The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters.

Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors.

Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame.

Wrong team favored.

In Zac Gallen I trust, especially when he's pitching at home.

Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his home starts this season.

The Cardinals are one of the biggest underachieving teams. They are 12 games below .500. Arizona, by contrast, is eight games above .500.

Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis. He's not the same elite pitcher he was before injuries took a toll. Flaherty is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a day game. Flaherty's day time ERA is even worse at 5.66.

Rarely do the Dodgers lose back-to-back home games. You have to go back to June 18 to find the last time that happened.

Look for LA to bounce back after a 6-3 extra inning loss to Toronto last night.

The Dodgers are 29-17 at home. They have Julio Urias, last year's ERA champion, on the mound.

Urias is bouncing back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for six weeks. He was shelled by the Orioles in his last start. Prior to that, however, Urias had allowed only two earned runs in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays have never faced Urias so Urias has a surprise element in his favor.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has pitched much worse on the road this season where his ERA is 5.81.

I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263.

It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge.

The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game.

Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees.

Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA.

Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi started the season fast. But now he's reverted to his usual bottom-of-a rotation quality.

Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA this month. Kikuchi has surrendered 72 homers in the past three seasons, including 22 already this year.

The Mariners are quite familiar with Kikuchi since he pitched for them for three years before going to the Blue Jays. Kikuchi was 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA in 70 starts for Seattle.

He was below average then and he's still below average.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are not familiar with Seattle starter Bryce Miller having never faced him. That gives Miller an edge.

Miller is one of the better rookie starters in the American League. He loves to pitch in Seattle where he's 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA.

The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings.

The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings.

The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here.

It may seem strange at first glance to see the Orioles favored against the Dodgers. But that's definitely the case in this matchup.

The Orioles have the third-highest winning percentage in baseball at .613. The Dodgers' winning percentage is .581.

Baltimore is 10 games above .500 at home and starting one of the most underrated pitchers in the league, Tyler Wells. He's backed by All-Star relievers Yannier Cano and Felix Bautista. Wells has allowed fewer than earned runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year.

The Dodgers are starting Michael Grove, who is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA, in what could shape up to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. LA ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.31.

Corbin Burnes looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self on Friday. He shut out the Reds for six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks. Burnes struck out 13 in Milwaukee's 1-0 victory.

It takes a lot to shut out the Reds in Cincinnati.

Now, though, the story is much different. The Reds, who rank seventh in runs, drop down to face Freddy Peralta.

Peralta is a disappointing 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA. Peralta has been at his worst on the road where he's 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Peralta is not in good form either with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts.

The Brewers hit left-handers much worse than righties and they are going against southpaw Andrew Abbott, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Abbott is at his best at home where his ERA is 1.83. Abbott has 48 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. The Brewers strike out at the fourth highest rate.

Milwaukee also is batting just .228 versus southpaws, which ranks second-to-last. The Brewers also are 28th in slugging percentage against lefties and 26th in OPS.

Even with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, the Angels shouldn't be laying nearly this high of a price against the Astros. 

Down injured Mike Trout, the Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 8-4 in their last dozen games.

Ohtani last pitched 10 days ago after he was removed because of a blister on his pitching hand. Is Ohtani fully healed? Even if he is, the Angels are terrible without Trout and Ohtani is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. 

Houston is pitching rookie J.B. France, who has been solid with a 7-4 record and 3.32 ERA. France has a 1.95 road ERA. France also is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Just what is so dominant about the Yankees? Nothing. They are just two games above .500 on the road, rank 28th in the majors in batting at .231 and aren't nearly the same team minus injured Aaron Judge.

Yet the Yankees are massive favorites at Coors Field.

The Rockies are much more competitive at home. They rank in the top-six offensively in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS when playing at home.

Yes, the pitching matchup on paper heavily favors the Yankees. But there is more than meets the eye here with Carlos Rodon facing Austin Gomber. Rodon is making only his second start of the season. He's still feeling his way. Rodon made one previous start at Coors Field in his career and he was roughed up for six runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Gomber is pitching the best he has all season going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, but they have Justin Verlander going and the Dodgers are not the powerhouse of a year ago.
 
Verlander has been dominant at home with a 2.19 ERA. He's been sharp, too, with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts. Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in three regular-season career starts versus the Dodgers.

Dodgers starter Julio Urias is having a disappointing season with a 4.76 ERA. He's not in good current form unlike Verlander with a 9.75 ERA in his last three starts. Urias has struggled on the road, too, with an 8.44 away ERA. 

Urias has a 5.02 career ERA versus the Mets in five appearances, including three starts.

This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft.

Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings.

The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft.

So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment.

There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz.

The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24.

Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA.

Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings.

The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2.

Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss.

The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances.

The buy sign is on for the Mets in an underdog spot with Justin Verlander on the hill.

The Mets have picked themselves off the floor to win their last five games. Verlander hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings. The right-hander figures to go at least six innings. The Mets are 25-4 when they have a starter go at least six innings.

San Diego is 2-7 the past nine times facing a righty starter.

Yu Darvish gets the call for San Diego. He'll be making his first start since June 21 having been sidelined by the flu. Darvish is not having a good season at 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA. That ERA soars to 7.71 in his last three starts where he's allowed 14 runs on 20 hits and seven walks in 16 1/3 innings.

In a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in baseball, I want the home underdog White Sox going for me here with Dylan Cease on the mound.

After a slow start, Cease has shown more of his ace form. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Cease has 55 strikeouts in his last 39 innings.

The White Sox are facing southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The White Sox are above average in batting average and slugging percentage against lefties. Montgomery has been pitching better, but at this price I'd rather have Cease going for me.

The Cardinals have lost 22 of the past 30 times in the opening game of a series.

Carlos Rodon is ready to make his long-awaited season debut for the Yankees. The Yankees are excited and so is Rodon. I see Rodon doing well.

The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They still could be missing Dansby Swanson, who has been out with a heel injury.

Rodon posted a 0.84 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings spanning three rehab appearances in the minors. Rodon was 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA for the Giants last season in 31 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium.

Rodon has the luxury of having a deep Yankee bullpen behind him. The Yankees are tied for having the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Best yet, the Yankees get to face Jameson Taillon, who pitched for them the previous two seasons. Taillon has been a major disappointment for the Cubs with a 6.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He's in bad form, too, with a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts.

The Cardinals and Marlins have switched the script so far this season. It's the Marlins who are 14 games above .500 while the Cardinals have matched a season-low 16 games below .500 after blowing a ninth inning lead against Miami last night.

The Marlins would be on an eight-game win streak if you discount their games against the Braves. St. Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games.

Now the Cardinals get to face Eury Perez for the first time. Perez had pitched 21 scoreless innings and had an ERA of 1.34 before running into the Braves this past Saturday. Atlanta clobbered him. No shame, though, in that. The Braves are the most powerful team in baseball ranking first in homers and OPS and second in runs and batting average.

The Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, a one-time ace reduced to mediocrity with a 4.60 ERA having been dealt low by shoulder issues. The Cardinals have a bullpen that can not be counted on.

Domingo German is coming off a perfect game and pitching at home. Yet it's the Orioles who opened as a slight road favorite.

Surprised?

I'm not. I'm on the Orioles.

It's not just a case of fading German off his perfect game, which came against the A's this past Wednesday in Oakland. The Orioles have lost five fewer games than the Yankees this season. New York is 11-13 since losing reigning AL MLVP Aaron Judge to a toe injury.

I also believe Orioles starter Tyler Wells is better than German. Wells is way below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer during his last six starts. Wells has recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his last nine games and has a 0.88 WHIP.

German, despite his perfect game, is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA. The spot isn't good for the Yankees returning home after six straight road games while playing their fourth game in three days having had to play a doubleheader against the Cardinals this past Saturday.

Justin Verlander just may have provided the much needed spark for an underachieving Mets team with his Saturday pitching game against the Giants.

The Giants haven't been setting the baseball world on fire either lately losing five of their last nine games.

I like the spot for the Mets here with David Peterson going against San Francisco's Ross Stripling.

Neither pitcher has good season numbers. Peterson, however, is off pitching six scoreless innings against the Brewers this past Tuesday. He has a rested bullpen behind him. The Giants are averaging just 2.1 runs in their last six games.

Stripling has made 10 pitching appearances for the Giants. They are 2-8 in those games. Stripling missed six weeks with a back injury. This is his first start since May 17. He might not be around for long.

The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10.

Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees.

Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA.

Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts.

The Brewers are running short on quality relief pitchers. They also are going against crafty, veteran lefty Rich Hill.

Yes, Hill is way over the hill. But the Brewers can't hit lefties. Milwaukee is 10-15 versus southpaws. The Brewers are last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against lefty pitching.

Milwaukee starter Colin Rea has an ERA worse than Hill's at 4.57. Rea's daytime ERA is 5.20.

The Pirates have been swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games.

The Braves have the best record in the National League. They just whipped the Marlins, 16-4, at home on Friday.

But too little respect is being given to the Marlins for today's game with a pitching matchup of Eury Perez versus Charlie Morton.

The Marlins have the third-best record in the National League. They would be the leader in two of baseball's six divisions.

Prior to Friday's loss, the Marlins had won seven consecutive road games.

Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA in day games, which this matchup is. Perez hasn't been scored upon during his last three starts spanning 21 innings.

Atlanta leads the majors in homers, Perez, however, has only surrendered two homers in his last eight starts.

The 39-year-old Morton has a 4.74 home ERA.

Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners.

Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.

The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS.

The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts.

Adam Wainwright is planning to retire following this season. He's been a great pitcher. I just wish he would have retired before this year because he's embarrassing his legacy.

The 41-year-old Wainwright has just one quality start in his last nine outings. His home ERA is 7.03. His ERA during his last three starts is 7.80.

The Astros are the better team. They get the check marks, too, when it comes to starting pitchers with J.P. France opposing Wainwright and in the bullpen.

The rookie France has been reliable. He has a 3.08 ERA in four starts this month.

The Astros' lineup received a needed jolt with the return of Jose Altuve. Meanwhile the Cardinals could be minus Nolan Arenado, who left Wednesday's game because of back tightness.

Miami is playing well. But I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park in a pitching matchup of lefty Jesus Luzardo versus Brayan Bello.

The Red Sox rank fourth in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.

Bello is emerging as one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has a 2.45 ERA during his last 10 starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his past three starts.

The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday.

The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts.

New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts.

So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here.

Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span.

The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th.

New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games.

German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts.

The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games. The good news about that is you can now buy low on Houston.

The 42-37 Astros should not be an underdog to the 33-45 Cardinals in a pitching matchup of Christian Javier against Miles Mikolas.

Javier is 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Cardinals have never faced him. 

Mikolas is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his past three starts. Mikolas has a 10.80 career ERA versus Houston in two starts.
The Cardinals beat the Astros on Tuesday, but still might not have their sea legs after having played a weekend series against the Cubs in London.

It' an added bonus for Houston if Jose Altuve returns to the lineup. 

The Phillies are a hot road team and they have a hot pitcher going. Both teams were idle on Monday. The Cubs, though, flew in from London where they played the Cardinals during the weekend. So jet lag could work against them.

All of this puts me on the Phillies as an action play since as of early Tuesday morning the Cubs had not formally announced their starting pitcher. Jameson Taillon is the projected starter, which would be another plus for Philadelphia. Taillon has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.71 ERA.

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine road games, averaging 6.6 runs and posting an .843 OPS during this span. They are looking for their seventh consecutive away victory.

After a slow start recovering from an elbow strain, Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has been brilliant in his last five starts with a 1.38 ERA.

Given their talent, the Cardinals could be baseball's biggest underachieving team at 32-45. Along with the Riddle of the Sphinx, Stonehenge and the Bermuda Triangle it is one of the great mysteries of the world why Oliver Marmol remains manager of the Cardinals.

I'm not going to look away from this gift horse. The Astros have Framber Valdez, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league, going against the Cardinals. Losers of six of their last seven home games, the Cardinals could be suffering from jet lag having just played the Cubs in London during the weekend.

Valdez has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only Shane McClanahan at 2.27. Valdez is in top form, too, with a 4-1 record and 1.50 ERA in his last six starts. Valdez has made 15 starts this season. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 11 of those games. The Cardinals have never faced him.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is in line to start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 2-11 in his last 13 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five career starts versus Houston. The Astros are 12-8 versus southpaw starters.

This is an action play for me just in case Montgomery doesn't start.

I priced this game much higher, so I'm on the Giants. San Francisco is rolling winning 12 of its last 13 games.

I trust Giants starter Anthony DeScalafani more than Arizona's Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.31 ERA.

San Francisco's offense is underrated. The Giants rank in the top 10 in a number of categories including, runs, homers, on base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Diamondbacks have lost 23 of their last 28 road games in San Francisco.

Cleveland should remember Corbin Burnes. The last time Burnes faced the Guardians in Cleveland he combined with Josh Hader to throw a no-hitter. That was two seasons ago.

Burnes faces the Guardians today and the price is right to back him. Burnes hasn't performed at his Cy Young Award level of the past couple of seasons. But he's still darn effective with four straight quality road starts and a 1.15 season WHIP.

The Guardians are last in homers, 27th in runs and have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls. Burnes is backed by elite closer Devin Williams, who is rested.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has a 2.67 ERA. However, that hides Civale's current form - which is not good. Civale has given up seven walks and three homers during his past two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. This was against the A's and Padres. Oakland is last in runs, batting average and OPS. San Diego has a below average offense, too.

The Brewers had outscored the Guardians by 26 runs in winning four straight against them until losing, 4-2, on Saturday.

Just twice since May 28 have the Tigers won consecutive games. They nipped the Twins, 3-2, on Saturday. I don't see Detroit beating Minnesota again today in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Michael Lorenzen.

The Twins have given up an average of just two runs during their last four games. Ober is an underrated pitcher with a 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that is 29th in runs and OPS and 28th in homers.

Lorenzen has a 4.00 ERA on the season. During his past three starts, Lorenzen has a 6.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

The Mets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost 10 of their last 14 games. The buy sign is on here for the Mets because Max Scherzer gets the start.

In Max we trust.

Scherzer got back on track in his last start, holding the Astros to one run on four hits in eight innings while striking out eight and allowing only one walk. The Mets easily won that game, 11-1.

This could be a bullpen game for the Phillies starting Cristopher Sanchez. He's made just two appearances failing to reach five innings either time. Sanchez had a 5.63 ERA in 40 innings with the Phillies last season.

Despite Friday's loss to the Phillies, the Mets still have defeated Philadelphia in 17 of the past 21 meetings.

Seattle is struggling on the road. Seattle struggles at Yankee Stadium. Seattle is struggling to score runs.

So the price is right to ride the Yankees as they look to sweep this three-game series having beaten George Kirby and Luis Castillo the past two days.

Mariners starter Bryan Woo is a drop down from Kirby and Castillo. Woo is a high strikeout pitcher, but he has a 7.30 ERA in his three starts this season.

Seattle is 3-12 in its last 15 road games. New York has dominated the Mariners at Yankee Stadium, beating them 14 of the past 18 times there.

Yankees starter Domingo German has been pitching better. He's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. The Yankees have a deep bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

The Mariners have scored more than three runs only once in their last six games. They are averaging just 2.5 runs during this period.

Remember when the Pirates opened the season going 20-9?

I don't either.

Pittsburgh is back to its usual bottom feeding ways. The Pirates are 14-30 since then. They are the coldest team in baseball with nine straight losses.

Miami is 22-15 at home and starting Braxton Garret, who has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The Pirates have scored just 11 runs in their last seven games.

Right-hander Mitch Keller gets the start for Pittsburgh. Keller has cooled off, too, after a promising start. He has a 6.14 ERA during his last five starts. As a staff, the Pirates have a 5.54 ERA this month.

The Marlins are 7-1 the past eight times they've faced a righty at home.

The Giants have won nine in a row, including the first two games of this series. But they are tempting fate. They won the series opener in extra innings and then nipped San Diego, 4-3, last night in the ninth inning when elite closer Josh Hader walked in the winning run.

Now the Giants are going the bullpen route with Ryan Walker serving as the opener of what will be a parade of relievers.

I'll take Yu Darvish and Hader on the backend knowing he won't lack motivation.

The Padres have stranded runners all season. That's continued in this series with San Diego leaving 18 baserunners in 19 innings.

I see that getting turned around here while Darvish provides the Padres a strong starting pitching edge.

I respect the Dodgers' lineup. I don't respect Michael Grove, their starting pitcher today, and their bullpen. LA relievers have the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.01.

Grove returns from the minors to make his seventh start for the Dodgers. He has yet to produce a quality start. Grove is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA.

The Dodgers will have to deal with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who gets the start here. He's 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

LA edged the Angels, 2-0, last night behind Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have lost the past six times following a victory.

The Twins are reeling. Fortunately they have Sonny Gray on the mound.

Gray has a 1.96 ERA in eight home starts this season. He's surrendered just one home run in 76 innings.

Minnesota is the better defensive team and has a lower bullpen ERA than Boston.

Garrett Whitlock draws the start for Boston. He's been pitching better, but he's at his worst when pitching on the road at night. His away ERA is 5.31. His night ERA is 5.24.

So look for the Twins to find their way here thanks in large part to Gray.

We've seen how this matchup plays out before. Marcus Stroman went against Johan Oviedo last Thursday. The Cubs won, 7-2.

I don't see anything changing.

The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Pirates are on a seven-game losing streak.

Stroman has won his last six starts spanning 41 2/3 innings. His ERA is 1.51 during this stretch.

The Pirates are swinging cold bats. They've scored only eight runs in their last five games.

Oviedo has a 4.40 ERA. Pittsburgh's bullpen has the highest ERA during the last two weeks.

George Kirby is a nice young pitcher for Seattle. But he's trumped by Gerrit Cole. The price is right to back Cole and the Yankees at home.

The price on the Yankees is so low because New York just got swept by the Red Sox in Boston. That was the Yankees' fourth straight loss.

But following yesterday's off-day, look for the Yankees to be up for this game with their ace, Cole, on the mound.

Cole has held foes to two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. He is 6-3 lifetime against Seattle with a 2.25 ERA in 11 career starts.

The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.96 and is rested.

The Mariners are playing their first road game in nine days. They have lost 10 of their past 13 away games. The Mariners also have a dismal history at Yankee Stadium losing in 12 of their last 16 games there.

The Reds are sizzling. They have won eight in a row and 11 of their last 13.

The Reds are getting tremendous production and emotion from younger players, including rookies Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.

Colorado has the second-worst record in the National League. They are 13-26 away from Coors Field.

I don't see Austin Gomber slowing down the Reds. He has a 7.29 ERA and shouldn't even be in a big league rotation.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson. He faced the Rockies on May 16 and held them to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings during a 3-1 victory.

The Marlins are playing well. They are 16-5 in their last 21 games. That's pushed them up to a season-best 10 games above .500.

Now the Marlins return to Miami where they have won 11 of the last 13 times. They draw the disappointing Blue Jays, who are 3-6 in their last nine games. Toronto is off a demoralizing Sunday loss to the Rangers in which they blew a six-run lead.

This will be Toronto's seventh straight road game. The Blue Jays will be starting righthander Jose Berrios, who is pitching much better lately. Berrios, however, has been more effective when pitching at home where his ERA is 2.37 compared to 3.79 on the road. The Blue Jays also are likely to be minus injured catcher Alejandro Kirk.

The Marlins are 14-3 (82 percent) during their last 17 interleague games when facing a righty starter.

Bryan Hoeing is set to make his third start of the year for Miami. He has a 1.54 home ERA. Hoeing will be backed by setup man Tanner Scott and closer A.J. Puk, both of whom were rested on Sunday.

I want the Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin going for me after they were embarrassed at home, 15-0, by the Giants on Saturday.

The Dodgers are a remarkable 13-0 at home after being shut out the previous game.

Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's been dominant at Dodger Stadium with a 3-0 mark and 1.66 ERA.

"...he's as good as anyone,'' Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said about Gonsolin when Gonsolin is healthy.

The Dodgers are 22-13 at home.

This is more than a fair price to back Jon Gray and the Rangers, who are 23-13 at home. The Rangers have hit the second most home runs at home.

Texas is 6-1 in Gray's past seven starts. During this span, Gray has a 0.84 ERA.

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has a 14.59 day time ERA. He got shelled in his last start.

Come on down because the price is right to back the Guardians and their ace pitcher, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is back to his elite ways, giving up only one run on eight hits during his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He shut out the Astros for seven innings during his last start this past Sunday in a 5-0 victory. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 the past four times they've faced a righty starter at home.

The Guardians get to face southpaw Tommy Henry, who has a 4.86 ERA. Unlike Bieber, Henry is not in good form. Henry has surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks during his last two starts spanning nine innings. The Guardians are 7-1 in their last eight games against a lefty starter.

Cleveland also carries a huge bullpen edge ranking No. 2 in relief pitching ERA at 3.04 compared to Arizona, which is 17th at 4.09.

The Padres can take their place among the baseball underachievers this season. San Diego is below .500 on the year and below .500 at home. 

San Diego is off a 5-0 Wednesday home victory against Cleveland thanks to seven shutout innings from Michael Wacha, who has been the hottest pitcher since the start of May with a 0.91 ERA.

But now the Padres drop down from Wacha to Ryan Weathers. Cleveland is pitching promising rookie Logan Allen.

The Padres are 2-7 the past nine times at home following a home win. 

Allen is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA. He has 51 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. Allen has been at his finest on the road with a 2-1 record and 1.90 ERA. Allen is backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind only the Yankees. 

Weathers, in his third big league season, will be making his 20th career start. His ERA's are 5.32, 9.82 and 4.93 this season. Weathers is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Scoring runs is the issue with the Guardians. They rank in the bottom-three in runs, OPS and homers. The Padres, however, rate 28th in batting average and 22nd in runs. 

Cleveland was averaging six runs per game during its last seven games before running into a hot Wacha last night.

Kudos to the Phillies for halting the Diamondbacks' six-game win streak on Tuesday.

But I see Arizona starting a new win streak today pitching Merrill Kelly against Ranger Suarez.

The Diamondbacks are one of the hottest teams in baseball - and they have been all season tied for the third-best record in the league.

Arizona is 7-1 in Kelly's last eight starts. Kelly is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season.

Suarez has started to pitch better, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter not in Kelly's class. Suarez has a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Diamondbacks faced Suarez last month and got to him for five runs in five innings. Suarez has a 6.35 ERA in 28 1/3 career innings versus Arizona.

The Diamondbacks rank in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. They have scored at least five runs in seven of their past eight games.

Even with their Tuesday victory, the Phillies are just 14-23 on the road. They are 4-13 during their last 17 games at Arizona.

Idle on Monday, the Brewers have to be anxious to get back to playing after becoming the first team swept by the A's this season.

I like the Brewers' chances here - and the underdog price - with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burns has started to resemble his previous Cy Young Award form during his past three starts with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers have an elite closer, too, in Devin Williams. So it's nice to know that the Brewers should be getting at least eight quality pitched innings.

Burnes has a 2.45 ERA in 18 1/3 lifetime innings against the Twins with 29 strikeouts.

Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez has pitched poorly in three of his last five starts. He has a 5.40 ERA during his past three outings.

The Twins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery gets the start for St. Louis. The Cardinals are 0-10 in Montgomery's last 10 starts. The Reds faced Montgomery on May 22. They got to him for four runs on seven hits and three walks in four innings. The Reds have the seventh-highest batting average against left-handed pitching.

Cincinnati starter Ben Lively is below-the-radar. He has a 3.03 ERA. He faced the Cardinals on May 24 and gave up two runs on five hits in six innings while striking out eight and walking two.

The Reds should enter this series with confidence having just taken two of three from the Dodgers.

The Cardinals have yet to get turned around. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. St. Louis is averaging 2.5 runs in its last five games.

The Dodgers have lost three in a row and are starting Noah Syndergaard. So I don't believe they should be favored in this price range.

Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, have robbed Syndergaard of his once feared fastball and effectiveness. He has a 6.54 ERA. He's made 11 starts and won only once. Syndergaard has allowed multiple runs in nine consecutive starts when pitching more than one inning.

"I would give away my hypothetical first-born to be the old me again,'' Syndergaard has lamented.

The Reds are going with rookie Brandon Williamson, who will be making his fourth big league start. He held the Brewers to three runs - two of which were earned - on five hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start five days ago.

This is an exciting time for the Reds with the call-up of infielder Elly De La Cruz, their No. 1 prospect and one of the best in baseball.

This is an action play for me based on the Cubs' cold bats and poor road record.

If you discount a 7-1 win against the Padres two games ago, the Cubs have scored eight runs in their last six games.

Chicago has lost 15 of its last 20 road games.

The Angels own a winning home mark. They are facing righthander Hayden Wesneski, who has a 4.81 ERA. The Angels are 16-7 the last 23 times at home when going against a righty starter.

I don't like Angels starter Tyler Anderson. But he should be able to hold his own at home against a cold Cubs lineup.

How good have the surprising Texas Rangers been this season? Try 38-20 with an MLB-best plus 152 run differential.

The Rangers have won 12 of their last 15 games. They have Martin Perez starting for them against Adam Wainwright and a slumping, underachieving Cardinals team that is 10 games below .500 and has dropped five of their last six games.

Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA. He's also been great during interleague competition with a lifetime 1.59 ERA in nine starts. St. Louis is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 10 games.

Wainwright is showing his 41 years. He has a 6.15 ERA, which balloons up to 7.59 when pitching on the road. He faces a Texas lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average while ranking No. 2 in OPS.

This is a huge mismatch not fully reflected in this low lay price.

The Giants are playing well winning 12 of their last 18 games. The price is right to back them at home against Baltimore.

Tyler Wells gets the start for the Orioles. He hasn't been in good form with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts.

The Giants are starting Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 2.90 day time ERA. The Giants' bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball during the last 30 days.

The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. They aren't likely to have good-looking rookie third baseman Gunnar Henderson. He has a back injury.

I don't like to go against the Astros. But I'll do it when I can get a plus price on Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani is having another MVP-caliber season. He's 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. He leads the majors in opponent batting average at .155, ranks No. 2 in WHIP at 0.95 and has the fourth-most strikeouts.

The Angels are in a frustrating, mad mood after losing to the Astros, 5-2, yesterday. They stranded 13 runners and got hosed by the umpires on certain calls.

Lefty Framber Valdez will be on the hill for Houston. He's good, but his statistics are padded because of his last three starts. Those starts came against the A's twice and Cubs. The Angels rank in the top-seven against southpaws in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Can the Cubs actually sweep the Rays? Nope. Tampa Bay hasn't been swept in a series all season and I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Zack Eflin versus lefty Justin Steele.

Tampa Bay is 8-1 in games started by Eflin, who is pitching his best ball. Steele started well, but is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays have won eight of 11 games versus lefties this season.

The Rays are the best offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are averaging 2.1 runs during their last six games.

I'm surprised the Giants aren't laying a price. They should be given how these teams have been playing.

San Francisco is playing its best ball, winners of nine of its last 11 games. Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.

The Giants have dominated the first two games of this series, outscoring the Brewers, 20-1.

The Brewers are without their catalyst now as shortstop Willy Adames will go on the injured list after being struck on the side of the head by a foul ball while inside the dugout during the Giants' 15-1 Friday victory. It was extremely unnerving for the Brewers to see that injury.

I give the Giants the pitching edge, too, in this matchup of Logan Webb versus Corbin Burnes. Webb has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Burnes is enduring a down season so far by his lofty status with a 3.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Milwaukee has a losing record in Burnes' starts this season.

Patrick Corbin may have been the worst starting pitcher in the majors last season. This season that dishonor can be bestowed on Jordan Lyles.

The two are scheduled to tangle on Friday. Lyles is favored for the first time this season in 11 starts.

Mark me down for Corbin and the underdog Nationals.

Not only are the Royals 0-10 in Lyles' 10 starts, but all but one of those defeats have come by more than one run. Lyles has permitted four or more runs in nine consecutive games. He has a 7.15 ERA. He's surrendered 14 homers, most in the league. Lyles can't expect to be bailed out by a Kansas City bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA.

The Nationals are going to put the ball in play. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league and the fourth-highest batting average. Washington is averaging 5.2 runs during its past 10 games.

Corbin has bounced back from being a laughingstock to gaining some of the respectability he had five years ago. Corbin has a 2.88 ERA in four starts this month going at least six innings in each outing with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Corbin encounters a Royals team averaging just 2.7 runs in their last nine games. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-five in runs batting average and OPS.

The White Sox have won their last three series. I expect them to even this series up at 1-1. 

Lance Lynn goes for Chicago. Lynn struggled out of the gate, but he's gotten things turned around. Lynn has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He is 7-3 career-wise versus Detroit with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. 

The White Sox should score often against overmatched Joey Wentz, who is 1-4 with a 7.45 ERA. Wentz probably shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. However, the Tigers are forced to keep using him being down injured starters Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull and Beau Brieske. 

This is an easy handicap. The Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last eight games and have lost five in a row. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball. 

The Rays are throwing their top pitching prospect, Taj Bradley. He's looked good in his four big league starts this season with a 3.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Bradley has 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays are pitching Jose Berrios, who is a fade on the road where he's 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA. Berrios is 2-4 career-wise versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. 

Remember that 20-9 start by the Pirates? Yeah, I don't either anymore. Pittsburgh has reverted back to its losing ways going 4-13 in its last 17 games.

I don't see the Pirates getting back to winning either taking on the much improved Rangers.

Texas is 29-17. That's tied for the third-best winning percentage in baseball. The Rangers have a plus 108 run difference, which is the second-best mark. They rank No. 1 in runs and batting average and are second in OPS. They also have a hot Corey Seager back after he missed 31 games with a strained hamstring.

This isn't pleasant news for Luis Oritz, who gets the start for Pittsburgh. He's 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA and a hideous 2.38 WHIP.

The Rangers are going with Dane Dunning, who is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The Pirates have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games.

Step aside please, I'm boarding the crowded fade Padres train.

San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine games and 1-5 the past six times being favored. The Padres are minus injured Manny Machado and have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Not only are they last in batting average and 26th in runs, but they are batting .196 with runners in scoring position. No team in baseball history has finished with a batting average of less than .200 with runners in scoring position for an entire season.

Boston, by contrast, ranks in the top three in runs, batting average and OPS.

I'd certainly give an edge to the Red Sox, too, in starting pitching where Chris Sale goes against Joe Musgrove.

Sale is showing signs of returning to his once-dominant form going 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.73 WHIP during his last three starts.

Musgrove is 1-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts. One of those starts was in Mexico City where pitchers didn't stand a chance in that bandbox stadium and high altitude. But even if you discount that start, Musgrove still would have an ERA above 4.00. He's surrendered five homers in 19 innings.

I like the Twins here and the price is right to back them. Minnesota has its new-found ace, Joe Ryan, going with a rested bullpen. The Twins were idle Thursday. They stay in Los Angeles having just faced the Dodgers, while the Angels concluded a seven-game, seven-day road trip with a one-run victory against the Orioles on Thursday.

Ryan is in early Cy Young Award competition with a 6-1 record, 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. 

Angels starter Reid Detmers is 0-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in contrast to Ryan's outstanding numbers. Detmers faced the Twins last season and was 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA.

I'm going to lay a small road price to get behind the Phillies as they try to avoid being swept by the Giants. 

The Phillies are overdue to produce more runs. They've scored just six runs in their last three games going a mind-boggling 1-for-33 with runners in scoring position during this span.

I see the Phillies breaking through against struggling journeyman-type Ross Stripling, who has a 7.42 ERA in his last three starts. 

Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker usually beats bad teams, which the Giants are at 19-23. Walker's teams are 19-4 (83 percent) in his last 23 starts when he's faced a sub .500 opponent. The Giants are 2-6 in their last eight games against a righty starter. 

The Guardians are seven games better than the disappointing 14-28 White Sox and have their ace going, Shane Bieber.

Bieber is off to a good start with a 3-1 record and 2.61. The same can't be said for the White Sox, who are 9-20 in their last 29 home games and could be starting Lance Lynn, who has been awful with a 1-5 record, 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

The Guardians, who have a winning road record, rate a strong edge with Bieber on the hill no matter who the White Sox pitch today. Bieber is 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 17 career starts versus the White Sox.

The White Sox have been dealing with injuries to key players all season. Out for the White Sox are Elvis Andrus, Eloy Jimenez and possibly Yasmani Grandal.

The Angels nipped the Guardians, 5-4, Friday night by scoring twice in the ninth inning. That was just their second road win against the Guardians in 23 games in Cleveland during the past eight years.

Now the Angels face another long-standing angle - beating Cal Quantrill. The Guardians are 21-3 for 88 percent in Quantrill's last 24 regular season starts. Quantrill is off his best performance of the season, too, shutting out the Twins for seven innings while giving up only one hit.

The Angels are starting Reid Detmers, who is 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA. This will be Detmers' sixth start of the year. He's turned in just one quality start.
I thought the Guardians would come a solid favorite here instead of being in the pick and plus range. So I'm on Cleveland.

I'm seeing positive signs now with Chris Sale, who gets the start here. The seven-time All-Star is off a 5-3 win against the Phillies. He struck out 10 in six innings. Sale's fastball was back up to 99 mph. He hasn't thrown that hard in five years.

Opposing Sale is Steven Matz. Fading Matz this season has proven quite profitable. St. Louis is 1-6 in his seven starts. Matz has a 5.70 ERA. He has a career 5.75 ERA versus the Red Sox in four starts.

Boston is five games above .500. The Cardinals have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league at 14-25.

The Red Sox are 101-49 the past 150 times when playing an opponent with a below .400 percentage.

Current form, pitching matchup and a strong situational element make the Dodgers an easy choice here.

LA is playing its best ball winning 10 of its past 12 games. San Diego is 1-4 in its last five games.

The pitching matchup is slow-starting Blake Snell versus Dustin May. Snell is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA on the road this season. May is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA this season. That ERA gets reduced even more to 2.20 if you go by just his last three starts.

The Dodgers are rested after being idle yesterday, while the Padres are traveling from Minnesota where they just concluded a three-game series against the Twins that finished on Thursday.

LA has defeated San Diego in 38 of the past 52 times it has hosted the Padres.

Maybe, just maybe, the buy sign is on for the White Sox. Well, it is at least for this game in a pitching matchup of Dylan Cease versus Zack Greinke.

Cease is off to a slow start with a 2-1 record and 4.58 ERA. He was an elite pitcher last year and he still rates two-to-three levels higher than Greinke, who is just an innings-eater at this late stage of his career. Greinke has a 5.25 ERA. He's been bad in four of his last five starts. Cease has a 2.58 career ERA against Kansas City in 12 starts.

The White Sox have been a monster disappointment at 10-22 as they begin a seven-game road trip.

Lance Lynn certainly hasn't helped. Neither has Chicago's bullpen. The White Sox are 0-6 in Lynn's starts this season. Lynn has a 7.16 ERA. He's giving up 4.1 walks and 2.2 homers per nine innings. The Reds average more than five runs a game at home. White Sox relievers have the second-highest ERA at 6.47.

Oh, yes, the White Sox have also lost eight consecutive road games.

Promising Hunter Greene gets the start for Cincinnati. He's proving he's more than just a tremendous strikeout pitcher with a 2.89 ERA. Greene has yielded just one earned run during his last 14 innings. He's averaging 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

The White Sox rank 28th in road on-base percentage at .284. They are averaging just 3.6 runs when playing on the road.

The Braves are not a team I normally like to go against. But I find value on the home 'dog Marlins.

Miami has a winning record on the season. The Marlins are 10-7 at home. 

The Marlins had won four in a row until the Braves shut them out, 6-0, on Tuesday. 

I see the Marlins coming back to win today's game in a starting pitching matchup of Kyle Wright versus Braxton Garrett.

Wright led the majors in wins last year going 21-5. He hasn't been that effective this season with an 0-1 record, a 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 

Garrett has been the better pitcher with a 1-0 mark, 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Miami is 4-0 in Garrett's last four starts, including a 5-4 victory against the Braves last week when these two pitchers went against each other.  

The Astros host the Phillies in the middle game of their 3-game World Series rematch. Aaron Nola beat the Astros, 3-1, in Friday night's opener.

It has been 18 games since the Astros dropped consecutive games. They have won by an average of 5.3 runs following each of their past six losses.

Even with that victory, the Phillies are just 12-28 in their last 40 interleague road games. The Astros are 66-31 in their last 97 home games.

The Astros have the far superior bullpen and I give them the checkmark, too, in starting pitchers with a matchup of Zach Wheeler versus Christian Javier.

Wheeler is off to a slow start with a 4.73 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Javier has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Houston is 4-1 in Javier's five starts.

The Astros have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA at 2.90. Philadelphia relievers rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.65.

These two teams each won 101 games last year. But the Braves are the better team through this first month of this season.

The Mets just got through losing a series to the lowly Nationals. New York is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mets are giving up an average of 5.8 runs in their last five games.

The Braves enter the opener of this series disgusted and mad after blowing a 4-run ninth inning leading against the Marlins on Thursday.

The pitching matchup of Max Fried versus David Peterson greatly favors Atlanta.

Fried was the National League Cy Young Award runner-up last season. He is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA this season. Peterson is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA. He has a 4.50 career ERA versus the Braves in eight appearances, including seven starts.

The Braves have won eight of their last nine road games.

The Yankees are 2-3 against the Twins this season. They just lost, 6-1, to the Twins and former teammate Sonny Gray on Monday. The Yankees have averaged only 3.1 runs in their last dozen games while hitting just .199 during this time frame.

So why get involved with the Yankees today?

It's tough to turn down a plus price on New York when Nestor Cortes is on the hill. The Yankees are 8-1 this season when Cortes and Gerrit Cole have started. They are 5-9 in their other games.

The Yankees also have dominated the Twins despite Monday's loss going 116-43 (73 percent) versus the Twins the past 21 years.

Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan, who is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA. Nothing against Ryan. But I prefer Cortes, who has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Cortes hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 16 starts.

This is my MLB Game of the Week.

The Texas Rangers lead the AL West with a 14-8 record and have their second-best pitcher, Martin Perez, starting for them today. The Reds have the third-worst record in the National League at 8-15. They are starting Luke Weaver, who is on the comeback trail and has a long way to go to regain respectability following a serious arm injury.

It's actually an advantage for the Rangers to be playing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park because it's one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and the Rangers have the far superior offense.

Texas has scored the second-most runs in baseball. The Rangers also rank fifth in batting average and are eighth in homers. The Reds have a bottom-10 offense. They have the third-fewest homers, too.

Perez is a late bloomer. The 31-year-old earned his first All-Star honor last year after 11 years in the majors. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts. The Rangers' bullpen blew Monday's game to the Reds in a 7-6 loss. But that shouldn't happen again. Texas entered this series with the second-best bullpen ERA.

The Reds had lost six in a row prior to Monday. This will be Weaver's second start of the season after throwing just 35 2/3 innings last season, mostly in relief. Weaver gave up four runs in six innings against the Pirates in his start this year, giving up two homers.

Look for the Rangers to bounce back here behind Perez and underrated offense.

The Giants are proving not to be very good with an 8-13 record. One problem for them is their inability to win a series opener. San Francisco has played six series this season and lost Game 1 in five of them.

There has been no winning consistency either with the Giants. They are 1-8 following a victory.

The Cardinals are off to a slow start, too, at 9-13. But they are the superior team and I like their starting pitcher better in a matchup of Jordan Montgomery versus Alex Cobb. Montgomery's 4.84 ERA is misleading as he's had three strong outings in four starts.

Cobb has a 2.79 ERA, but has yet to win. Cobb doesn't figure to be helped by a bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen, by contrast, ranks in the top 10 in ERA.

This comes down to value again for me. St. Louis is off to a slow start. But the Mariners also are below .500.

The line is high because Seattle is starting Luis Castillo. He's off to a huge start going 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. I've always considered the streaky Castillo better than average rather than great. I think he's overrated. Castillo, a former Reds player, has a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts versus St. Louis.

Castillo's numbers are due to go up while Cardinals starter, Miles Mikolas, numbers are due to go down. The righthander has an 8.10 ERA. Mikolas had his best outing of the season in his last start, however. He held the surprising 14-7 Pirates to two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 2-6 the past eight times they've faced a righty starter at home.

I find this a fair price to lay in order to back the superior team and pitcher in a good situational spot.

The 12-7 Mets have won six of their last seven games. They have a strong history against weak teams, which the 6-11 Giants are. New York is 43-19 (69 percent) the past 62 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400 percent.

The pitching matchup pits Kodai Senga against Sean Manaea. Senga has looked good in three starts going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings. Manaea hasn't been as impressive with a 4.76 ERA.

The Giants are off an extra inning victory against the Marlins yesterday. They are 0-7 the past seven times following a victory. The Giants also had to make the long cross-country flight from South Florida to Northern California crossing three time zones. The Mets, on the other hand, already are in California having just concluded a successful series against the Dodgers.

Three main reasons why I want the Astros going for me here: Line value, Houston home off a loss and fading Jose Berrios on the road.

The Blue Jays beat the Astros, 4-2, on Tuesday. The Astros have won by 4, 7, 6 and 7 runs following their past four defeats. Long-term, the Astros are 42-15 after losing their previous game.

Berrios had a 6.36 road ERA last season. He has an 11.17 road ERA this season in starts against the Angels and light-hitting Royals. Berrios has a 4.81 ERA in seven career starts versus Houston.

The Astros are going with Luis Garcia, who has a 4.00 career ERA against Toronto in three starts.

The Braves have won seven in a row. They are the best team in the National League. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games. They've scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves, too.

So I like the Braves a lot here.

Spencer Strider goes against lefty Blake Snell.

Strider is an emerging star in his second season. His career numbers are 13-5 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 229-to-54 strikeouts to walk ratio.

Snell traditionally begins slow. He's really struggling this season. Snell has given up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, on 18 hits and 10 walks in his last three starts spanning 13 innings. Opponents are batting .327 against him during this span. The Braves are 5-1 versus lefty starters this season. They have the second-highest batting average against southpaw pitching at .324.

The Braves just saw Snell 12 days ago and got to him for four runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings.

I want the Astros off a 9-1 home loss to the Rangers. Houston is 41-15 (73 percent) the past 56 times following a loss.

And the Astros are an underdog here.

The Blue Jays just finished a big three-game series against the Rays. So their concentration could be a little off.

Toronto holds a starting pitching edge with Kevin Gausman versus Christian Javier.

Gausman is an elite pitcher. However, he has a losing lifetime record against the Astros with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts.

Grayson Rodriguez has a high ceiling for Baltimore. But Rodriguez hasn't shown he's ready for the majors during his first two starts this season. He has a 6.75 ERA. 

The White Sox are going with their ace, Dylan Cease, who is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA. Cease was dominant last season going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. He has 24 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings this season. 

I want Cease going for me at this price. Rodriguez is a fade until he proves himself.