Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-06-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +118 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Giants have to be faded as long as the oddsmaker keeps making them a favorite while they are struggling. San Francisco is 3-12 in its last 15 games. The Giants have lost a season-high six in a row. The Giants are averaging only 2.3 runs during their six-game losing skid. They face Merrill Kelly here. Kelly has won four of his last six starts. He had a career 3.21 ERA against the Giants in 10 starts. Alex Cobb gets the start for the Giants having yet to inspire confidence with a 4.94 ERA. The Diamondbacks, unlike the Giants, are swinging hot bats scoring at least five runs in all but one of their last eight games. |
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07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox -126 | 8-2 | Loss | -126 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Fresh off sweeping three games from the Giants in San Francisco - all in an underdog role - the White Sox returned to Chicago and lost Monday to the Twins. The White Sox's concentration could have been impacted by a tragic Fourth of July shooting that took place during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. The Twins also turned a key triple play. I like the White Sox to bounce back today. Minnesota is 4-15 (21 percent) following a victory. The White Sox are 20-8 during the second game of a series. Even with that victory, the Twins still are 3-9 during their last dozen road games against the White Sox. The pitching matchup is Chris Archer versus Michael Kopech. Archer has pitched well with a 3.08 ERA, but he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was and he doesn't go deep into games. Kopech is a rising star with a 2.78 ERA, who has been held back by arm injuries. He's healthy now. |
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07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
I guess the Braves have to be favored at home here in a pitching matchup of Cardinals rookie Andre Pallante versus Ian Anderson. But based on the current form of these two starters, St. Louis is the team that should be a hefty favorite. Pallante has been brilliant with a 2.10 ERA. His road ERA is even better at 1.31. Anderson, on the other hand, has been terrible with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. His home ERA this season is 6.28. The Braves are without their star closer, Kenley Jansen, too. So you would be Thick as a Brick if you backed Ian Anderson in this spot. |
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07-04-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -142 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
The Brewers are back playing good ball winning six of their last eight games. They have proven trustworthy in this role going 29-11 the past 40 times at home when taking on a below .500 opponent. The Cubs have lost in eight of their last 10 games in Milwaukee. The rebuilding Cubs also have dropped nine of their last 12 road contests. I give a starting pitching edge to Milwaukee in a matchup of Justin Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) versus Eric Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA). The Brewers get a huge bullpen checkmark. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of 3.54 compared to Chicago's bullpen ERA of 4.55. The Brewers have the three best relievers with closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger. All have ERA's of 2.05 or less. |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Phillies have been bet up in this Sunday night ESPN matchup for good reason. Zach Wheeler is pitching at home. Wheeler has a 1.85 home ERA this season. He's been at his best, too, in night games with a 2.06 ERA in evening games. Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright is having a solid season, but he won't be throwing to his batterymate of 17 years with Yadier Molina out due to a knee injury. The Cardinals not only lose Molina's Hall of Fame-caliber defense, but his replacements can't hit. Rookie Ivan Herrera is batting .111 and Andrew Knizner is hitting .185.
St. Louis has lost eight of its last 11 road games and has lost six of its past eight games in Philadelphia. |
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07-02-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -133 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are finding out what the White Sox knew: Southpaw Dallas Keuchel is washed-up. Keuchel has an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He has just four more strikeouts than walks. Keuchel isn't going to get well pitching against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors. They also rank No. 1 in OPS at home and No. 2 in slugging percentage. The Rockies are at their best when playing home against below .500 teams having won 36 of the past 52 times against them for 69 percent. Arizona stomped on Colorado in the opener of this series on Friday. I don't expect the Diamondbacks to repeat that today. The Rockies had just taken two of three from the Dodgers at home. Even with that loss, Colorado still has defeated Arizona seven of the past nine times at Coors Field. Colorado starter Austin Gomber is overdue to come in with a big home game. The lefty went 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA in nine home starts last season for the Rockies. Arizona is 21-43 in its last 64 games when facing a southpaw starter.
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06-30-22 | Reds v. Cubs -118 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
Laying a short price against the Reds on the road rarely is a bad thing even when the home team is the Cubs. Cincinnati is 14-25 on the road this season. The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games. The Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games. During this span they are averaging 6.2 runs a game. So I feel confident backing the Cubs here. The pitching matchup is Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft versus crafty veteran Kyle Hendricks. Ashcraft has been impressive with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA. He limited the Giants to two runs in eight innings during his previous start this past Friday. Prior to that, however, Ashcraft was battered for 10 earned runs in his two previous starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. During that two-game time frame, Ashcraft gave up 17 hits, two walks and two homers. Hendricks also is coming off an excellent start. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals this past Friday. Hendricks' night ERA is a respectable 3.78. |
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06-30-22 | Yankees -115 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
The Astros are good. The Yankees are great. How great? The Yankees have matched the best 76-game start in the last 92 years. New York is seeking its 17th win in the last 21 games here. It is rare to lay such a low price with the Yankees. I like the pitching matchup for New York with Luis Severino versus Luis Garcia. Houston also is likely to be minus shortstop Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, their leading power-hitter. Both were injured in a collision on Wednesday. Alvarez leads the Astros in homers and RBI's. Severino is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA gets reduced to 3.13 if you count just his last six starts. Garcia is 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He is more of a middle-to-bottom end rotation starter while Severino is talented enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter especially if he were with a lesser team. |
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06-29-22 | Astros -120 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Never mind that Justin Verlander is 39. Don't worry about Verlander coming off Tommy John surgery. Verlander is as dominant as ever. He proved that again this past Friday beating the powerful Yankees by giving up just one run on four hits and one walk in seven innings. Verlander is 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 84-to16. The Mets are 3-5 in their last eight games. They've lost six straight to the Astros, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker also has been good this year with a 6-2 record and 3.03 ERA. His last three starts, though, have come twice against the Marlins and Angels, both of whom have below average offenses. Walker is not in Verlander's stud class and the Astros' relief staff has an ERA of nearly a run lower than the Mets' bullpen. It's rare to be able to back Verlander at this low of a price range. So I'll take it.
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06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The Angels are getting desperate for starting pitching as they are bringing up Chase Silseth to start against the White Sox today. Silseth was sent to Double A after going 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Silseth was even worse at home posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his two Anaheim starts. On the flip side, Johnny Cueto isn't being given enough respect. Yes, Cueto is past his prime, but he's been highly productive especially on the road where he has a 1.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four away outings. Cueto has a tremendous track record, too, against the Angels going 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in five lifetime starts. The White Sox own a winning road record this season. |
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06-28-22 | Brewers v. Rays -108 | 5-3 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Tropicana Field, home of the Rays, is a strange and tough place to play. It's especially difficult for National League teams since they rarely go there. It's not a fluke the Rays have won 72 percent of their last 53 interleague home games. Look for the Rays' offense to improve now that Wander Franco is back in the lineup. The Rays are starting highly promising rookie Shane Baz. He's coming off a game against the powerful Yankees six days ago where he allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 1.93 ERA at Tropicana Field. Brandon Woodruff is set to make his first start for Milwaukee since May 27. He's been out with an ankle injury. Woodruff could be rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game. |
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06-27-22 | Rangers -132 v. Royals | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Kansas City has the second-worst record in the American League in front of only Oakland. One reason for this is you have to go back to April 19-21 to find the last time the Royals won a home series. I don't see the Royals getting off to a good start in the opening game against the Rangers today. It's a battle of lefty starters, Martin Perez versus Kris Bubic. That favors the Rangers more than the betting line shows. Perez is having a career season with a 5.2 record and 1.96 ERA. Perez is in stellar form allowing just one run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Kansas City ranks 27th in runs and homers. Texas is 15-10 versus southpaws this season, including 7-1 the past eight times facing them. The Rangers should be in line for a strong offensive performance as Bubic has a 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 34 innings this season. The Rangers have won in 10 of their last 14 visits to Kansas City. |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers -113 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This series has taken on added significance with Freddie Freeman returning to Atlanta. The Braves got past the Dodgers, 5-3, on Saturday. Prior to that, though, the Dodgers had won five of six, winning those games by an average of 4.8 runs. LA has a huge edge in this matchup, not reflective of this short line with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus rookie Spencer Strider. Gonsolin has been the Dodgers' best pitcher with a 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Dodgers are giving up the fewest runs per game, while scoring the most runs per game. The league is starting to figure out Strider, who was clobbered for six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Giants during his last start this past Tuesday. |
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06-26-22 | Phillies v. Padres -141 | 8-5 | Loss | -141 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
In Yu we trust. Yu Darvish can run hot and cold. Right now he's great at home with a 4-1 record and 1.34 ERA at Petco Park. He's in tremendous form, too, going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA during his last three starts. Darvish should continue to dominate facing a strikeout-prone Phillies lineup that is now without superstar Bryce Harper, who suffered a broken thumb after being hit with a pitch last night. Harper was batting .318 with 15 homers and 48 RBI's in 64 games. The Padres get to tee off on righty Kyle Gibson, who is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road. Gibson has yielded four homers during his last three starts. San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine home games when going against a righty starter.
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06-26-22 | Blue Jays -140 v. Brewers | 3-10 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Injuries to stud pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and more recently Aaron Ashby have taken a toll on the Brewers' starting rotation not to mention a hit on their won/lost record. Milwaukee is 9-15 in its last 24 games. The Brewers are forced to turn to Chi Chi Gonzalez. How desperate is that? Here are Gonzalez's ERA figures during his past five seasons in the big leagues - 7.36 this season, 6.46 last year, 6.86 in 2020, 5.29 in 2019 and 8.71 in 2016. I don't see Gonzalez keeping the Brewers in this game against an elite Toronto offense that ranks fourth in batting average and fifth in homers. The Blue Jays are averaging 7.5 runs in their last six games. Jose Berrios has largely disappointed this season. But he's a huge upgrade on Gonzalez. He can hold down a tepid Brewers attack that ranks 25th in batting average. |
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06-25-22 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -142 | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Except for an occasional long ball, Zach Davies has been pitching well posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four starts. He's also gone at least six innings during each of three past four starts. Look for Davis to fare well against a weak Tigers offense that ranks last in home runs and runs. The Tigers won the first game of this series. Yet their road record is just 9-21. The Diamondbacks should do damage as they draw Alex Faedo, who is 1-4 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
The Yankees are in their own tier in the American League. They are the best team in baseball with a .739 winning percentage. The Yankees are going for their 19th win in their last 22 games at home against the Astros. I see no reason not to get involved with the Yankees at this short home lay price. The Astros are good. But they aren't as strong as the Yankees. New York is first in runs scored. Houston ranks 17th. The Yankees have won 81 percent of their home games. They have won 11 of their last 16 home contests against Houston. Houston is going with Framber Valdez on the mound. I like Valdez. But I also like Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, who is having a huge season with an 8-1 record and 2.70 ERA. New York has better bullpen depth than the Astros, too. This represents a rare opportunity to back the Yankees at more than a fair price. |
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06-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +108 | 7-8 | Win | 108 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
The Pirates are the better team and are at home. So I'm perplexed as to why this line is inflated in the Cubs' favor. The pitching matchup pits lefties Justin Steele, who has a 4.27 ERA, against Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana, who has a 3.66 ERA and the added motivation of pitching against the team he played for from 2018-2020. The Cubs battered the Pirates, 14-5, on Wednesday. However, the Pirates won the first two games of the series by a combined 19-2. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in its last seven games. The Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 games. The Pirates are getting a spark from recently called-up talented young players such as Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris. |
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06-22-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have withstood injuries to some of their top pitchers because of guys like Tyler Anderson, who has been brilliant this season. If you discount a four-run game against the White Sox, Anderson has allowed only three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. This game is priced lower than I expected. This is because the Reds are home and their starting pitcher, Luis Castillo, has been pitching well, too, with a 2.72 ERA in his last six starts. There's a huge difference between these teams, though, that I don't believe is fully reflected in this line giving the Dodgers value as a mid-sized favorite. LA has dominated Cincinnati beating the Reds 13 of the last 17 times, including the past seven times.
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06-20-22 | Blue Jays -124 v. White Sox | 7-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays hold a strong pitching edge with Jose Berrios going against Lance Lynn, who only will be making his second start of the season after being on the injured list. Lynn has a 6.23 ERA on the season and a 4.21 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in eight starts. Berrios is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He is 12-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 3.12 ERA in 21 starts. The White Sox are traveling back home after losing the Sunday night game on the road to the Astros. The Blue Jays are off a huge Sunday victory against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have the superior offense and better starting pitcher going. So the price is ripe to back them. |
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06-20-22 | Giants +135 v. Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm going with plus price value in this one. Both teams are hot. The Braves are 15-2 in their last 17 games, although the two losses occurred during their recent series against the lowly Cubs. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games. The pitching matchup is a good one - Logan Webb versus lefty Max Fried. The Giants are 13-6 against southpaw starters. Webb is 2-0 lifetime against the Braves with a 1.35 ERA in three starts. |
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06-19-22 | Royals -130 v. A's | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
You know the Royals must be playing a really bad opponent with a terrible starting pitcher to be installed as road favorites in this range. Well, they are: Oakland. Dumpster fire is too kind of a description to call the A's at home. Oakland is 3-22 in its last 25 home games, including losing its last eight. The A's have lost 15 of 17 overall, which now gives them the worst record in baseball with a .333 winning percentage. Still think this price is too high to lay? I certainly don't with a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Jared Koenig. Singer is 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 3.38 when he pitches on the road. Singer has had only one horrendous start this season. That came against the Astros, a far stronger hitting club than the A's, who rank in the bottom-two in runs, batting average and homers. Oakland has been shut out in 12 percent of its games. Koenig has made two starts spanning a total of eight innings. He's allowed 14 hits, including two homers, and four walks during this span for an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. The Royals have shown improvement lately unlike the A's, winning five of their last nine games. |
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06-18-22 | Cardinals +108 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 108 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm attracted to getting the better team at a plus price especially when the underdog holds a pitching edge. That's the case in this Cardinals-Red Sox game. Dakota Hudson goes against Kutter Crawford. Hudson doesn't excite anyone because he's not a strikeout pitcher. But Hudson is solid and he's backed by a strong fielding Cardinals team. Hudson has 2.28 ERA in night games this season. He hasn't permitted a home run during his last six starts. Crawford has a 5.74 ERA. The youngster is coming off a career-high 83 pitches in his last start. Crawford hadn't thrown more than 50 pitches in his big league career. |
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06-15-22 | Guardians v. Rockies +100 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Rockies are a strange team. They are bad on the road, but tough at home especially against lefthanded pitching. The Guardians are weak versus southpaw pitchers. Colorado has these edges going and the price is right to back them in a pitching matchup of lefties Konnor Pilkington versus Austin Gomber. Pilkington has a 3.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His last three outings have occurred against three weak-hitting teams - Royals, A's and Tigers. The Rockies hit .282 against lefties. That's the second-highest mark in the majors. Pilkington draws them at Coors Field, the premier hitting park in baseball. Gomber has proven he can pitch effectively at Coors with a 3.50 lifetime ERA there in 15 starts and an impressive 1.17 WHIP. The Guardians are 23rd in batting against lefties. They also rank second-to-the-bottom in slugging percentage against southpaws.
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06-15-22 | Brewers -117 v. Mets | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
The Brewers haven't lost a season series to the Mets in six years. That streak is in jeopardy after Milwaukee lost to New York in Tuesday's opener. But now the Brewers have their stopper going today. And the price is low enough to back reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.48 ERA with a 92-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Mets are going with fill-in starter, David Peterson. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game. The Brewers hold a bullpen edge, too, with setup man Devin Williams and closer Josh Hader.
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06-14-22 | Brewers +142 v. Mets | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
I don't feel the Brewers should be underdogs to the Mets here. I see no starting pitching edge to the Mets with Andrian Houser facing Chris Bassitt. The Brewers hold a big advantage on the mound in the later innings with setup man Devin Williams and ace closer Josh Hader. This is the Mets' first home game since a 10-game West Coast trip that concluded this past Sunday. So the spot isn't ideal for the Mets. Houser is one of the better bottom-of-the-rotation type starters. He has a 0.00 ERA against the Mets lifetime in 3 1/3 innings. Houser's ERA in night games this season is 2.08. Bassitt broke into the big leagues eight years ago. He had spent his entire time in the American League until this season. National League teams have figured him out as Bassitt has allowed 22 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 26 innings. During this 26-inning span, Bassitt has given up 31 hits and 11 walks. These starts all came against NL teams. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times they've been road 'dogs. They also have defeated the Mets in 20 of the past 28 games. |
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06-13-22 | Padres -125 v. Cubs | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
The Padres own the second-best road record in baseball at 20-11. They get the good timing to take on the reeling, rebuilding Cubs, who have lost six in a row. The Cubs are a season-worst 13 games under .500. The Cubs enter this matchup with their confidence down and their bullpen battered after giving up 28 runs, including 11 homers, in getting swept three games by the Yankees. San Diego owns a big starting pitching matchup edge, too, with Yu Darvish against Justin Steele, who is 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA. Darvish isn't the power pitcher of past seasons, but he's still very effective with eight of 11 quality starts. San Diego is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
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06-13-22 | White Sox -115 v. Tigers | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn gets to make his season debut against the worst offense in the majors - the Tigers. Detroit ranks last in runs and homers. The Tigers have scored just seven runs in their last four games. All-Star closer Liam Hendriks will also be available for the White Sox after being out on Sunday. The White Sox need a break from home where their manager, Tony LaRussa, is under heavy fire. They should get there at Detroit facing the 24-35 Tigers and Rony Garcia, who has a 6.43 ERA in his three starts. Garcia has a lifetime 5.52 ERA at Comerica Park and a 9.82 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 7 1/3 career innings against the White Sox.
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06-12-22 | Dodgers -122 v. Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Look for Julio Urias to come in with a big game to keep the Giants from sweeping the Dodgers. Urias has a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against the Giants in 21 games, including 15 starts. Urias rates a stronger edge on Giants starter Carlos Rodon than the betting line indicates. Rodon started hot, but has tailed off. He has a 3.77 ERA in his last three starts in which he's given up 17 hits and six walks during this span. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs averaging 5.2 per game. Rodon is 0-2 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. |
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06-10-22 | Rangers v. White Sox -120 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Take away Martin Perez's starts and the Rangers aren't very good. Minus Perez, they would be seven games under .500. But Perez is not starting here. Glenn Otto is. He has a 4.24 ERA. That ERA goes up to 4.76 if you factor his seven career road starts. The Rangers' bullpen is highly unreliable. Texas is 2-6 in its last eight games. The White Sox are 4-8 in their last 12, but their last nine games have come against the Dodgers, Rays and Blue Jays. Now the White Sox are stepping down in class. This will be White Sox rookie Davis Martin's third big league start. He's backed by a strong bullpen. Martin has given up just a single during his last four innings. The Rangers have not fared well in Chicago losing six of its last seven road games to the White Sox.
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06-08-22 | Yankees -167 v. Twins | 1-8 | Loss | -167 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Gerrit Cole may not even be the best pitcher on the Yankees. Nestor Cortes is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He has a 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cortes gets the start against Chris Archer as the Yankees try for their eighth straight victory. Archer has a respectable 3.89 ERA. But note that his last four starts have come against very weak-hitting teams - Tigers twice, Royals and A's. The last time Archer faced a strong offense was five starts ago against the Astros. Houston got to him for five runs (four earned) in just three innings before he was pulled. Archer hasn't pitched well at home either with a 5.00 ERA. |
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres +100 | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mets have the best record in the National League at 37-19. However, they are just 9-9 against lefty starters. Going back long-term, the Mets are 21-45 against a southpaw starter during their last 66 road games. Here the Mets draw Padres lefty Blake Snell. The Mets may be in letdown mode after just concluding a high profile four-game series against the Dodgers by nipping LA in extra innings on Sunday. Carolos Carrasco gets the start for New York. He has a 5.06 road ERA and is off his highest pitch count during his last five starts. The Padres have scored 17 runs in their last three games against a strong Brewers pitching staff. |
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06-05-22 | Cardinals -122 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Adam Wainwright is 40. But he's shown no signs of slowing down with a winning record and 2.75 ERA. Wainwright faces lefty Justin Steele, who has a 5.40 ERA and has lost his last five decisions. The Cardinals saw Steele last September and got to him for six runs in five innings. St. Louis is 19-7 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. The Cardinals are the deeper and superior team to the Cubs. They are better equipped all the way around to win the fifth game of this series after Saturday's doubleheader. St. Louis has defeated the Cubs in seven of the past nine games at Wrigley Field. |
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06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -117 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
The White Sox are terrible in the role of road underdog. That's the position they find themselves in today against the Rays. The White Sox have lost 41 of the past 53 times (23 percent) as an away underdog. The White Sox are in bad form, too, losing seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay has won three in a row. Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has been solid with a 5-2 mark and 3.47 ERA. Chicago's Dylan Cease is a big strikeout pitcher, who can dominate weaker lineups but has problems against good offenses. The Yankees and Red Sox, for instance, got to him for 13 runs in a combined seven innings. Cease also walks too many batters. |
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06-03-22 | Astros -124 v. Royals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Brady Singer has been pitching well. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is inconsistent, either very good or very bad. But this price is low enough to get involved with the Astros against the worst team in baseball. That team is Kansas City. The spot isn't good either for the 16-33 Royals. This is their first home game back following a 2-7 road trip. The Astros are 22-7 in their last 29 games. They have defeated the Royals 14 of the past 20 times and are 8-3 against them the last 11 times in Kansas City. The Royals have never faced Urquidy giving him the surprise element. Kansas City has lost 10 of the last 11 times it has been a home 'dog. |
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06-03-22 | Cardinals +102 v. Cubs | 14-5 | Win | 102 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are much superior to the Cubs. The records bear this out. St. Louis is 29-22, while Chicago is the opposite at 22-29. The Cubs edged the Cardinals, 7-5, on Thursday. But I don't see Chicago beating St. Louis again. The Cardinals have won five of the last six at Wrigley Field. St. Louis is 35-16 in its last 51 road games. The Cubs are 4-23 in their last 27 home games when taking on an above .500 opponent. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus Marcus Stroman. That favors St. Louis, too. Mikolas has a 1.54 road ERA. Stroman has struggled at Wrigley Field with an 0-2 record and 6.28 home ERA. |
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06-02-22 | Rays -127 v. Rangers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Corey Kluber isn't likely to ever win a third Cy Young Award. But he's shaken off injuries to become respectable. Kluber is a good fit for the Rays. He's been solid this season in nine starts with a 4.03 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP. I give Kluber and the superior Rays a much bigger edge than the oddsmaker finding this lay price to be 25-30 cents lower than it should be. The Rays are banged-up, but they have excellent depth. They also get to face Taylor Hearn, who probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Making the conversion from bullpen to starter, Hearn has made nine starts. The numbers aren't pretty - a 5.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Kluber handled a much tougher Yankees lineup in his last start, holding them to one run on three hits in six hits. The Rangers rank 21st in batting average. The bottom of their order is weak and they could have the most disappointing hitter in the majors this season, Marcus Semien. Semien smacked 45 homers last year while batting .265 for the Blue Jays. He's been an utter bust so far with the Rangers hitting .193 with one homer. |
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05-31-22 | Reds v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
I'm not sure why, but Luis Castillo still commands some respect from the oddsmaker. Otherwise why else would the Reds only be midsized road underdogs? So I find this to be that rare spot where there is value on the home favorite. The Reds have the worst road record in the majors at 7-19. They have the worst pitching in the league and rank 26th in batting. Cincinnati is below average in just about every offensive category. The Red Sox rank third in batting and have scored the fifth most runs. I don't see Castillo, an underachiever given his high ceiling, stopping Boston at Fenway Park. Castillo is off to a slow start again this season with a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA. Boston is off an embarrassing, 10-0, Memorial Day home loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox certainly shouldn't lack motivation following that stinker. Before that loss, though, the Red Sox were 9-3 in their last 12 games while averaging 8.6 runs during their previous five games. The Red Sox have won the opening game in five of their last six series. Boston starter Michael Wacha has looked good with a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. He dominated the Reds during his years with the Cardinals going 12-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 23 career appearances. |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +105 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Perception doesn't match reality here. The perception is the defending world champion Braves are good and the Diamondbacks, losers of 110 games last year, are terrible. This isn't right. Atlanta is 23-25. Arizona is 23-26. Note, too, that nine of Arizona's losses have occurred to the Dodgers, who have the best lineup in baseball. The Diamondbacks are 18-13 outside of the NL West Division. Not only are the Diamondbacks home, but they have a huge edge in starting pitchers with rookie Spencer Strider opposing Zac Gallen. This will be Strider's first big league start. His 11 appearances this season have all come in relief. Gallen has been an underrated monster this season. He's made eight starts. All have been excellent except one. Gallen has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in six starts and two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts. Gallen has a 2.22 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Gallen faced the Braves once last season - his only appearance against them - and tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. The Diamondbacks are much better this season while the Braves have yet to get in gear. |
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05-28-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels +100 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. But I see the Angels winning this home game in a pitching matchup of Michael Lorenzen against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The Angels traditionally are a strong home team. That's the case so far this season as they are 12-5 in their last 17 home contests. The Angels also have done well versus lefties. They went 30-25 versus southpaw starters last year and are 8-5 against them this season. Kikuchi is having a good season, but he has a bad history versus the Angels with a 1-4 record and 10.92 ERA in seven previous starts against them. Lorenzen has his confidence up after consecutive strong starts giving up just one run during the past 13 innings. |
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05-27-22 | Blue Jays -105 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games. The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth. Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs. But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors. |
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05-26-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -115 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
The Brewers have trouble with the Cardinals losing eight of the past 11 times to them. Perhaps the Brewers' biggest strength is the backend of their bullpen with closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams. However, neither of those two are likely to play. Hader has been on family medical emergency leave. This has forced Williams to pitch in three straight games for the first time this season. So the Brewers need lefty Eric Lauer to pitch deep into the game. Lauer has pitched well with a 2.16 ERA. He's not that good, though, so regression is due. The Cardinals also hit lefties well. St. Louis ranks No. 1 in weighted on base average versus southpaws. Lauer has to deal with a pair of tough righthanded bats in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright continues to defy time. He has a 2.87 ERA. He's given up only three runs in 20 innings this month. |
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05-24-22 | Mets v. Giants -127 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them. The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games. Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts. Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class. |
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05-24-22 | Cubs -103 v. Reds | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball. Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts. The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen. |
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05-23-22 | Phillies -115 v. Braves | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. |
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05-20-22 | Tigers v. Guardians +105 | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts. |
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians -123 | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. Just how bad are the Reds? They rank last in pitching, have the worst defense and bullpen and are 28th in batting at .216. They are 4-17 on the road. Cincinnati actually no-hit the Pirates this past Sunday - and still lost! The Indians are 9-6 in their last 15 games. They are getting a huge season from superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez, who leads the league in RBI's. Mahle has been terrible when pitching on the road with a 6.50 ERA. Quantrill has settled in as a reliable middle-of-the-road type starter. He has a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. |
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05-17-22 | Giants v. Rockies +147 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type. The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field. The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here. |
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05-16-22 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category. The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season. |
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05-15-22 | Royals v. Rockies -133 | 8-7 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado. |
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05-14-22 | Red Sox +109 v. Rangers | 11-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night. Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers. The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role. |
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05-14-22 | Orioles +106 v. Tigers | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season. Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles. Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts. The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best. The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties. |
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05-13-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays +114 | 2-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees. I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays. The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts. Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays. |
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05-12-22 | Yankees +132 v. White Sox | 15-7 | Win | 132 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers. Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts. Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -111 | 9-0 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher. The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs. It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts. |
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05-07-22 | Marlins v. Padres -113 | 8-0 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home. Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties. Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games. |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
I have this one marked much higher. I don't believe the oddsmaker is giving the Rockies and their starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, enough respect here. The right-handed Senzatela has proven he can pitch well at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-3 during the last 13 games he's pitched there. He has a 3.12 ERA in this span. The Nationals have lost 25 of the last 36 games they've gone against a righty starter. Washington starter Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good for years - and he's not good this season with a 6.75 ERA. |
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05-04-22 | Rays -117 v. A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on for Corey Kluber and the price is low enough to back the Rays against the sinking A's. Kluber, a two-time AL Cy Young Award winner, held the Twins to one run on one hit with six strikeouts in a 6-1 win during his last start this past Friday. The A's have the fifth-lowest batting average in baseball. They've also lost five in a row. They are a bad team, much inferior to the Rays. ''Offensively, we're in a bit of a funk,'' A's manager Mark Kotsay was quoted as saying after the A's lost to the Rays last night. ''I think overall as a group, a lot of guys are probably pressing.'' Frankie Montas gets the start for Oakland. Montas is traditionally a slow starter and that's the case again this season as he has a 4.25 ERA. Tampa Bay also holds a strong bullpen edge.
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05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde. Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA. Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved. Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games. |
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05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -119 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston. I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year. Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros. |
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05-01-22 | Reds v. Rockies -145 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Reds have the worst record in the majors and it's not even close. They are 3-18. Cincinnati has dropped nine road games in a row. I went against the Reds at Coors Field on Friday and Saturday. I see no reason to change for today's game. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is off to a slow season at 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA. But Reds starter Reiver Sanmartin has been even worse at 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA. This is an action play for me, though, to just keep fading the Reds.
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05-01-22 | Red Sox -145 v. Orioles | 5-9 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
I see the Red Sox bouncing back after suffering a 2-1 extra inning loss to the Orioles on Saturday. Baltimore's most effective relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez, went two innings to get the win in that game. So don't expect Lopez to pitch in this game if needed. Even with that victory, the Orioles are still only 18-37 during their past 55 home games. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus Jordan Lyles. Pivetta is inconsistent. But he is 6-1 career-wise against Baltimore. Lyles is just plain bad. It's a mystery how he stays in a big league rotation. He has a 5.40 ERA this season. The Orioles are likely to be missing Trey Mancini, who is dealing with bruised ribs. While the Red Sox are expected to get back slugger J.D. Martinez from a groin injury that has sidelined him for the past three games.
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04-30-22 | Reds v. Rockies -135 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Reds have become an auto-fade with their 27th ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Cincinnati is 3-17 and has lost four in a row. The Rockies defeated the Rockies by six runs at home last night. Now Colorado has its hottest pitcher going, Chad Kuhl. He's made strong adjustments to his game and is off to a 2-0 start with a 1.10 ERA. Kuhl hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his three starts. Things don't figure to improve for the Reds in this game as they are starting fill-in pitcher Connor Overton to make his season debut. I'm not expecting much from Overton pitching at Coors Field.
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04-30-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation. |
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04-30-22 | Mariners +110 v. Marlins | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
In Robbie Ray we trust. The Marlins are hot, but Seattle is an underdog and has the superior starting pitcher going here with Ray. Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. The lefty has a 2.12 career ERA in nine appearances against the Marlins. Ray should be able to neutralize three of the Marlins' hotter players - Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle and Jesus Sanchez - all of whom are lefthanded. The Marlins are 20-33 against southpaws going back to last season. The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.77 ERA.
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04-29-22 | Reds v. Rockies -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds. |
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04-27-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | 5-10 | Win | 106 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz. Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter. |
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04-26-22 | Guardians +148 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Guardians are due for a victory. I see them getting it here in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie versus Patrick Sandoval. I'm high on the right-handed McKenzie, who has a 2.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. The free-swinging Angels are a bad fit against him. The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games against a righty starter. I'm not a fan of Sandoval, who has a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 ratio in two previous starts against the Guardians. The Angels are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. They also have dropped 10 of their last 14 games to the Guardians at home.
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04-25-22 | Astros -130 v. Rangers | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The Astros have dominated the Rangers winning 40 of the past 59 times. I expect that domination to continue this season. This price still is low enough to back Houston in a pitching matchup of Framber Valdez versus Dane Dunning. Valdez had his way with the Rangers last season going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Dunning isn't going to be able to slow down a strong Houston lineup especially with a weak bullpen behind him. Dunning is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two career appearances against Houston. He has a 5.68 ERA this season. |
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04-22-22 | White Sox -103 v. Twins | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Healthy now, this is the year of Michael Kopech. I really believe that. I drafted him way ahead of his average draft position in my Rotisserie baseball league and so far Kopech is living up to his high ceiling with a 1.00 ERA through two starts. Kopech has given up just three hits - only one extra base hit - in nine innings. Opponents are batting .107 against him. Look for Kopech to continue his hot hand against the Twins. He's 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 1.29 ERA. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has a 3.27 ERA. Ober has potential, too, but he's not the prospect Kopech is. Ober has a 4.76 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in five starts. This isn't a good situational spot either for the Twins returning home after concluding a seven-game road trip yesterday. |
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04-21-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins -125 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Marlins have trouble with the Cardinals. They've lost the first two games of the series to them. That makes eight straight losses to St. Louis. But circumstances and Pablo Lopez should put an end to that skid. The price is right to back St. Louis with Lopez going against what should be a St. Louis bullpen game. Lopez is at his best at home and during the first half of the season. He's 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA this season. Career-wise, he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP when pitching at LoanDepot Park, formerly Marlins Park. Jordan Hicks is scheduled to make his first start for St. Louis after 114 relief appearances. Hicks is in comeback mode after his season ended in early May last year because of a serious elbow injury. He's not expected to pitch deep into the game.
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04-20-22 | Rays v. Cubs +101 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Fatigue, an overworked bullpen and playing on a grass surface all work against the Rays in this matchup. So does facing Marcus Stroman. This is enough to put me on the Cubs. Tampa Bay hasn't been sharp with a 6-6 record. This will be the Rays' 13tht straight day of playing. Their first off day comes Thursday. Their best reliever, Andrew Kittredge, had to work two innings to get a save on Tuesday. The Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games on grass, which is an off-surface for them. Stroman is solid. I prefer him at home against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen. |
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04-18-22 | Phillies v. Rockies +152 | 1-4 | Win | 152 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Like many teams the Phillies struggle in Colorado. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 games at Coors Field. Yet they are mid-sized favorites here starting Aaron Nola. I find this line to be mispriced because of that. Nola wasn't good last season. He had a 4.63 ERA and surrendered 26 homers. He hasn't been good this season in two starts with a 6.75 ERA. Chad Kuhl gets the start for Colorado. He has a 2.08 ERA this season and is 2-0 lifetime with a 2.70 ERA in five appearances against Philadelphia, including three starts.
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04-18-22 | Rays v. Cubs +133 | 2-4 | Win | 133 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm sure by the end of the season the Rays will have a much better record than the Cubs. But right now Tampa Bay doesn't deserve to be such a large road favorite against the Cubs. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games. The Cubs are back home for the first time since their opening series against the Brewers when they took two of three. The pitching matchup is Shane McClanahan versus Kyle Hendricks. I like McClanahan, but not enough to back him in this spot with the Rays not playing well.
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04-17-22 | Braves v. Padres -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Yu Darvish can mix in a clinker with gems. But he's worth this short price at home against the Braves, who are going with Byrce Elder, their No. 6 starter. Darvish had a 3.38 home ERA with a 0.95 WHIP last season. The prideful Darvish shut out the Diamondbacks in six innings during his first start. However, he was bashed by the Giants in his second start, not even making it to the second inning. I see him bouncing back here. |
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04-17-22 | Astros +100 v. Mariners | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
The Astros are the superior team so I'm interested in backing them in this price range. The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus rookie Matt Brash. Urquidy has proven solid. He has a 1.80 ERA this season and a 3.38 career ERA versus the Mariners in four appearances. Brash is an intriguing prospect, but he has yet to prove himself. The Mariners will be without one of their better hitters as Mitch Haniger is on the COVID-19 list. Houston has dominated the Mariners in Seattle winning 26 of the past 38 times there.
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04-16-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -121 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
The price is cheap enough to back the Rockies at home against a bad Cubs team. Colorado is pitching Antonio Senzatela. The righty knows how to pitch in high altitude going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last season. The Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 games versus righty starters. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Cubs. They are going to start Mark Leiter, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2018. I'm not expecting much from Leiter and a host of Cubs relievers facing a Rockies lineup that always hits much better when playing in Coors Field. |
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04-15-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -113 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm looking for the Rockies to bounce back at home after losing the series opener to the Cubs. Colorado is going with its best pitcher, German Marquez. He looked great in his first start this season, holding the powerful Dodgers to one run on three hits in seven innings pitching in Coors Field. Marquez, an All-Star last season, is 27-18 lifetime at Coors with a 4.67 ERA. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, too, but I'm willing to lay this short price to get Marquez and Colorado at home. The Rockies are 27-11 the past 38 times they've been favored while the Cubs are 19-49 the last 68 times they've been a 'dog.
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04-14-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
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04-13-22 | Mets +106 v. Phillies | 9-6 | Win | 106 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games. So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer. I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA. Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors. |
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04-12-22 | Mariners +111 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
There will be times to play on the White Sox. This isn't one of them. Not in a pitching matchup of Matt Brash versus Vince Velasquez. Brash is the Mariners' top pitching prospect. He struck out 12 during 9 1/3 innings in spring training. He draws a White Sox lineup that is missing several key bats, including Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock. But this handicap also is a fade on Velasquez, who I now consider a lower-end starter. Velasquez was 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games with the Phillies and Padres last season proving unreliable in 21 starts. The Mariners have a tremendous knack for winning close games. They are 7-2 the past nine times as underdogs and 21-8 in their last 29 road games. |
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04-11-22 | Padres v. Giants -139 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -139 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
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04-11-22 | Brewers -139 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -139 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
Same old Orioles. Baltimore is 0-3 to begin this season getting swept by the Rays by a combined margin of 28-9. The Orioles struck out 37 times in their 3-game series against the Rays and were 2-for-24 with runners in scoring position. The Rays are an excellent team. So are the Brewers. Milwaukee got its confidence up nipping the Cubs, 5-4, Sunday after losing the first two games of the series. The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser versus Bruce Zimmermann. Houser is one of the more underrated backend starters. He went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last season. Houser had a 2.50 ERA in day games last season. He's backed by a deep and talented bullpen, one of the best in baseball. Zimmermann had a 5.04 ERA last season. That hideous ERA was even worse in day action last season at 6.23 ERA and was 5.33 in April. Baltimore remains a terrible home team at 28-58 during its past 86 home contests. |
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04-10-22 | Astros -105 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
The Astros are the stronger team with better depth and they should have their main bats in after resting several key players on Saturday night. Angels starter lefty Jose Suarez has a career ERA of 5.70. The Astros are 7-3 the past 10 times going against a southpaw starter. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is solid. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and had a 0.99 WHIP last season. The Angels are just 3-12 in their last 15 home games.
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04-10-22 | Marlins v. Giants -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA. |
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04-10-22 | Indians -102 v. Royals | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
The Guardians have held the Royals to four runs during the first two games of this series. Yet Cleveland is 0-2. The Royals are far from a power. So they shouldn't be favored when Cleveland has a starting pitched edge, which they do here. I'll take righty Cal Quantrill against Kris Bubic. Quantrill was 8-3 with a 2.89 and 1.18 WHIP last year. Bubic was 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Royals were 48-64 against right-handed starters last season. |
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04-09-22 | White Sox -128 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The White Sox blew Friday's opener against the Tigers. But they are much the superior team. I expect them to bounce back today with Dylan Crease. Crease has dominated the Tigers going 11-0 with a 1.82 ERA against them. Casey Mize goes for Detroit. He's talented, but hasn't been a big innings pitcher. That puts the Tigers' vulnerable bullpen into play.
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04-08-22 | White Sox -129 v. Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The price is low enough to get involved with the White Sox especially facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The White Sox crush lefties with a lineup that leans heavily on right-handed batters. The White Sox have won 40 of their last 58 games when going against a southpaw starter. Rodriguez is on the downside of his career. He had a 4.74 ERA last season. The Tigers should be improved, but the White Sox are easily the class of the AL Central Division. Chicago is pitching its ace, Lucas Giolito. |
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04-07-22 | Mets v. Nationals +120 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz. |
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10-31-21 | Astros -111 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
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10-27-21 | Braves +107 v. Astros | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since. |
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10-20-21 | Astros +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
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10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +122 | 2-3 | Win | 122 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games.
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out.
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10-02-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on with Zac Gallen. He was one of the most promising pitchers in baseball until injuries derailed him. But he's back now and looking great. Just ask the powerful Dodgers. Gallen held LA to one run on three hits in six innings last Saturday in a 7-2 victory. Gallen also was sharp recently against Colorado. He shut the Rockies out on three hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and only one walk on Aug. 21. The Diamondbacks are motivated not to finish with the worst record in team history. They are furious about blowing a huge lead to the Rockies on Friday. Colorado is a terrible road team with a 26-52 away mark.
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10-02-21 | Mets +113 v. Braves | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
The Braves rested several regulars in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Mets and they are going to sit out a number of key starters again today. The Braves have their playoff ticket punched so they don't care about this game. It's a bullpen game for Atlanta with Jesse Chavez being the nominal starter. A bunch of young pitchers for Atlanta could see action here. The Mets are going with veteran Carlos Carrasco. New York's best everyday players should be in the lineup with their careers on the line as the Mets decide the future course of their team.
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10-02-21 | Reds -154 v. Pirates | 6-8 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
The Pirates embarrassed the Reds on Friday. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati today. It's a meaningless game, but I do believe prideful Tyler Mahle will dominate the Pirates. He's facing a bad pitcher in Max Kranick. Mahle has had a career year with 13 victories, 12 quality starts and 204 strikeouts. He has been at his finest away from hitter Great American Ball Park where he's 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA. The Pirates rank 30th in homers and RBI's. Kranick is a horrible pitcher on a horrible team. He's 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
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10-01-21 | Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Arizona owns the worst record in baseball at 50-109. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 home games. So anytime I can lay a short price against them, especially with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look to do that. Veteran Jon Gray goes for Colorado. Gray has failed to live up to No. 1 starter status with Colorado, but he's decent given that he has a 4.28 ERA and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Rookie Humberto Castellanos also has a 4.28 ERA. He has made only six big league starts. The Rockies have lost 24 fewer games than the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 6-24 in its last 30 games. Colorado is on a two-game win streak. The Rockies are 26-10 the past 36 times when favored.
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10-01-21 | Indians -116 v. Rangers | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Sometimes you can find good spots and value in meaningless games. That's what we have in this matchup. Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA. Bad numbers. However, Morgan is coming off two well-pitched games against strong offenses. Morgan held the Yankees and White Sox to a combined one run and seven hits in 12 innings during his past two starts. Now Morgan steps way down in class to face the Rangers. Texas is tied with Pittsburgh for the third-worst record in baseball at 59-100. The Rangers are pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA. He's never gone more than four innings. The Indians usually do the job when favored, winning 16 of the last 22 times in that role.
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09-30-21 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
The Brewers snapped the Cardinals' 17-game win streak Wednesday night winning, 4-0. Mission accomplished, though, for the Cardinals. They have earned a wild-card berth. This is a quick turnaround being an early start. The Cardinals have to be a bit deflated with their win streak - the longest in the majors in five years - now history. The pitching matchup is southpaw Brett Anderson, who has a 4.30 ERA, versus lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 5.86 ERA. The prideful veteran Anderson won't lack motivation after the Cardinals knocked him out in the second inning just eight days ago. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times going against a lefty starter. Milwaukee has been a top road club, too, winning 38 of its last 54 away contests. The Cardinals still could be missing star catcher Yadier Molina. He's been out the last two games due to shoulder stiffness.
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