College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

Stephen Nover MLB Money Lines Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
06-12-18	Nationals +160 v. Yankees		0-3	Loss	-100	7 h 32 m	Show
Maybe if the Yankees had Luis Severino pitching, I'd stay away from the Nationals. But that's not the case here. Washington is catching a huge price going against CC Sabathia. That puts me on the Nationals. Tanner Roark has been reliable for Washington reaching the seventh inning in all but one of his 12 starts this season. The Yankees are batting just .176 in their last four games. They just were shut out by Seth Lugo and the Mets this past Sunday night. It's not a good spot either for New York. This is the Yankees' first home game since May 30. They've played the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers and Mets during their past four series. Now they step up in class. Sabathia beat the Blue Jays in his last outing, 7-2. Before that game, though, he had allowed 16 runs in 14 1/3 innings during his previous three starts. The 37-year-old has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. The Nationals could get an added boost with Daniel Murphy set to make his season debut. The Nationals' outfield already has been strengthened with Adam Eaton back from a lengthy injury.
06-11-18	Angels -110 v. Mariners	Top	3-5	Loss	-110	14 h 7 m	Show
A healthy Andrew Heaney is a promising pitcher. A healthy Wade LeBlanc is a journeyman. Both teams have been playing well. But I see regression coming for LeBlanc, who has a 2.95 ERA, and for the Mariners, who are 21-9 in one-run games. That's the most one-un victories in the majors. The Angels are 10-5 in their last 15 games, including 6-1 during their past seven. Heaney has a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.35 career ERA versus the Mariners in three lifetime starts. The Angels have one of the top road marks in the majors at 20-11.
06-10-18	Cardinals -115 v. Reds		3-6	Loss	-115	11 h 36 m	Show
As long as the price is right, which it is here, the Cardinals are worth backing against the Reds. St. Louis owns Cincinnati having defeated the Reds 13 straight times. St. Louis also has won the past 11 times at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals own all the edges against the Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, including a starting pitching advantage. Carlos Martinez has gone 13 scoreless innings against Cincinnati this season. He goes against Anthony DeSclafani, who is making just his second start since 2016 following a major injury. DeSclafani is rusty and not in Martinez's class. The Reds' bullpen also carries a high fatigue rating.
06-09-18	Angels v. Twins +103	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	16 h 30 m	Show
Kyle Gibson has won just one game this season. But that figure is misleading. Gibson has pitched well this year holding nine of his 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The Twins are 14-6 in Gibson's last 20 games starts going back to last season. Minnesota has won in each of its last four games againt the Angels when Gibson has started. The Angels are going with lefty Tyler Skaggs. They have lost in five of Skaggs' past seven starts. Minnesota is 12-4 the past 16 times going against a southpaw starter at home. The Angels are deadling with multiple injuries with Shohei Ohtani, Adrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun and Kaleb Cowart all out.
06-06-18	Orioles +105 v. Mets		1-0	Win	105	2 h 33 m	Show
The Mets have scored only seven runs in their last five games and face the Orioles' best pitcher, Dylan Bundy. Bundy is the one Orioles starter who can be counted on. This is a day game and Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a 5.57 day time ERA. The Mets have lost in 13 of their last 16 interleague games.
06-04-18	Braves +106 v. Padres	Top	4-11	Loss	-100	15 h 41 m	Show
The Braves are at least a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild. They are leading the NL East having just won three of four from the Nationals. Now they head to the West Coast to meet the Padres. I expect the Braves to carry their adrenalin through in winning this first game of the series. Atlanta is the supeior team and has the better starter going in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Clayton Richard. I'm surprised the Padres opened a favorite. The oddsmaker is seeing the Padres being 5-2 on their current homestand. That record, however, has been compiled against the Marlins and Reds. Those are the two worst teams in the National League. Even with those five victories, the Padres still are 16-20 at home. They rank 28th in runs scored. Atlanta is in the top-six in runs scored and batting average. The Braves are 6-3 in their last nine games and have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Teheran has pitched much better on the road going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA. The Braves are 11-8 versus lefty starters and have a strong history against Richard, who is 0-6 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 6.75 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts. Stephen's Free Monday Play Royals plus $1.65 at Angels I don't believe Nick Tropeano should be a favorite in this price range. He's a No. 5 type pitcher at best and the Angels aren't some powerhouse. They are 14-18 at home, have a weak outfield aside from the great Mike Trout and are vulnerable in the bullpen having arguably lost their two best relief pitchers, Keynan Middleton and Blake Wood, to season-ending elbow injuries. Kansas City has won seven of its last 12 games. Until yesterday, the Royals had gone seven consecutive games without an error. Royals starter Danny Duffy has had a rough season, but he's strung together two straight good outings giving up two runs and eight hits in 13 2/3 innings against the Rangers and Twins. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll put a peanut on the Royals.
06-03-18	Phillies -123 v. Giants		1-6	Loss	-123	12 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies have some young talent that is reaching maturity. It's one reason they are a surprising six games above .500. Another reason for their above average showing is Jake Arrieta is pitching as well as he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2015. Arrieta isn't getting as many strikeouts as he did three years ago, but he has the highest ground ball rate in the majors this season. Arrieta has permitted just three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 30 innings. He hasn't allowed an earned run during his past two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. The Giants are a below .500 team. They don't get Madison Bumgarner back until Tuesday and remain without injured Johnny Cueto. Because of this some young San Francisco pitchers have had to make starts. Dereck Rodriguez gets that chance in this game. This will be his first big league start. He pitched for the first time in the majors this past Tuesday and gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies. Arrieta versus the largely untested Rodriguez is a huge edge for the Phillies, who have also been getting great bullpen pitching. This edge is even higher considering the Giants could be without their two best offensive players. Brandon Belt is on the DL with an appendectomy and Buster Posey is day-to-day because of a bruised elbow.
06-02-18	Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150	Top	2-6	Win	100	13 h 28 m	Show
A major reason why the Marlins have the worst record in the National League is their lack of offense. Miami ranks last in the majors in runs scored and homers. The Marlins were dominated last night by Clay Buchholz, who is on the downside of his career having pitching for three teams in the last three years.Yet Miami managed only one run on six hits in seven innings versus Buchholz, who struck out nine while walking just one. If the Marlins had that much trouble against Buchholz they really figure to struggle against Zach Greinke, who also changes speeds well and still retains his elite status especially when pitching at home. Greinke is 15-1 at Chase Field during the past two seasons. He has a 1.69 home ERA in six starts this year limiting opposing hitters to a .184 mark. Arizona has won 20 of Greinke's past 26 home starts. Greinke is 5-0 lifetime against the Marlins, who have lost the past six times when going up against a righthanded starter. Miami has dropped 32 of its past 45 away games. The Marlins are 1-5 during their last six games at Chase Field. Rookie lefty Caleb Smith has been up-and-down for the Marlins. He's 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. The rebuilding Marlins are giving Smith a long leash. Smith is capable of coming up with a good performance. But the Diamondbacks have finally begun showing some offense scoring 30 runs in their last four games. That's the most they've scored in a four-game stretch all season. Arizona also is 13-7 this season against southpaw starters.
06-01-18	Reds -103 v. Padres		7-2	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
Now that there has been a switch in favorites, I'm going to go against the line move and take the Reds. Cincinnati has better hitters than San Diego and I like Tyler Mahle more than the totally untested Walker Lockett. This will be Lockett's big league debut. He comes up from Triple-A El Paso where he wasn't pitching well with a 2-5 record and 5.31 ERA. Now he has to face Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. I would take those three guys above any of the Padres hitters with Wil Myers still on the DL. This is what Padres manager Andy Green was quoted as saying about Lockett: "...His numbers are not great right now with El Paso, but this is the time when you start taking looks at guys and he has the opportunity to come up here and establish himself and possibly earn another shot the next time around." That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
06-01-18	Dodgers v. Rockies -105	Top	11-8	Loss	-105	5 h 12 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get the Rockies at home against the Dodgers in what shapes up as a bullpen game for LA. It looks like Scott Alexander is going to get the start now for the Dodgers, but this is an action bet for me meaning I'm taking the Rockies regardless of who the Dodgers start. The Dodgers may be distracted, too, with Clayton Kershaw leaving his last start due to back tightness after just returning from the DL. The Rockies are playing better at home winning their past two series at Coors Field. Their starter, Tyler Anderson, knows how to pitch at Coors. The Dodgers have a losing road record.
05-30-18	Cubs -120 v. Pirates		1-2	Loss	-120	11 h 22 m	Show
The Pirates are a mess and the price is low enough to get involved with the Cubs in a pitching matchup of Kyle Hendricks against Joe Musgrove. Hendricks is as steady as ever with five quality starts in his last six outings. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts at PNC Park. It's safe to believe Hendricks is going to be stingy and the Cubs hold a huge bullpen edge. Chicago has won four of its last five games while the slumping Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have dropped four in a row. Musgrove is more of a reliever. This is his second start of the year. He has made 26 career starts and has a 5.11 ERA in those appearances.
05-29-18	Phillies +165 v. Dodgers		6-1	Win	165	11 h 31 m	Show
I like the value with the Phillies here. Philadelphia is 29-22 while the Dodgers are three games below .500. But most of all I like a hot Jake Arrieta being this large of an underdog. Arrieta has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers are 5-12 during their past 17 games going against a righthanded starter. Kenta Maeda pitches much better at Dodger Stadium than on the road, but he's trumped by Arrieta. The Phillies have an underrated bullpen. They are a very live 'dog at a very good price.
05-29-18	Cubs -115 v. Pirates	Top	8-6	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
This is a short price to get the much superior Cubs here with a much superior pitching advantage. Jon Lester is having another strong season posting a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts. He hasn't surrendered more than two runs in each of his last five starts. The Pirates are going with rookie Nick Kingham to fill in for injured Ivan Nova. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have bullpen issues.
05-29-18	Nationals +107 v. Orioles		3-2	Win	107	7 h 28 m	Show
Dylan Bundy is Baltimore's best pitcher. But the Orioles still have lost 10 of his past 14 starts. Washington has won 68 percent of its last 59 road games when facing a righthanded starter. The Orioles are in rebuild mode with the second-worst record in baseball. The Nationals are 19-6 in their last 25 games. They also are one of the best road clubs at 18-8. Jeremy Hellickson has exceeded expectations pitching for the Nationals posting a 2.13 ERA in seven starts. The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Baltimore also has dropped its past nine interleague games.
05-29-18	Astros -117 v. Yankees		5-6	Loss	-117	7 h 27 m	Show
The Yankees aren't quite as good as the defending world champion Astros and CC Sabathia is their weak link in their starting rotation. Sabathia has a 6.05 ERA in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Rangers during his last start. The Astros have a far better offense than the Rangers. Houston is a top road team at 19-9. The Astros are 10-7 versus southpaws this season and have won 14 of their last 19 games. If it weren't for Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton would be getting a lot more respect. Morton has won his last 10 decisions going back to last year. He is 7-0 with a 2.04 ERA this year.
05-28-18	Rays +127 v. A's		1-0	Win	127	7 h 32 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Chris Archer, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. I'll take him at a 'dog price against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who is coming off a season high 102 pitches in his last game. Oakland has been struggling with its best power hitter, Khris Davis, on the DL managing to average only two runs per game during its past six games. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven away games.
05-28-18	Mets -121 v. Braves		3-4	Loss	-121	4 h 38 m	Show
Jacob deGrom is right up there with the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and is in dominant form giving up only one run in his last 33 1/3 innings. He has 29 strikeouts in his last 19 innings. Lifetime, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA versus the Braves in 13 starts. So it's easy to back deGrom especially going against Max Fried, who has a 6.00 ERA in relief and will be making his first start of the season. This could end up being a bullpen game for the Braves. Atlanta's focus could be off for several reasons. The Braves has been on the road for the past six games, are off a huge upset win against Chris Sale and their star rookie outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., suffered a scary leg injury on Sunday. His status won't be determined until today.
05-27-18	Diamondbacks -102 v. A's		1-2	Loss	-102	6 h 17 m	Show
Frankie Montas is slated to make his first big league appearance of the season today starting against the Diamondbacks. This will be just his third start in the majors. The Diamondbacks are struggling, but I'm not buying this line. Zack Greinke still is an elite pitcher. Greinke is pitching on extra rest, too. Arizona is 12-4 the past 16 times he has pitched on five days rest. The A's can be tough at home. I recognize this. But they aren't some super power. They don't steal bases, are bad defensively, their bullpen is down a key setup man and their top slugger, Khris Davis, is out.
05-26-18	Twins +132 v. Mariners		3-4	Loss	-100	17 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to take this 'dog price with a hot Jake Odorizzi against 33-year-old journeyman Wade LeBlanc. Odorizzi has a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins just got back Miguel Sano, their best power hitter, from injury and have won nine of the past 13 times in Seattle. I will say LeBlanc has pitched well since joining the starting rotation. But he's never been able to achieve consistency. The Mariners are the seventh team he's pitched for since 2011. Regression to the norm is overdue. The Mariners are scraping for runs averaging 2.4 during their past five games. They are without injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano.
05-23-18	Pirates -113 v. Reds		5-4	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
If the price is low enough - like it is here - I'll stand in line to fade Homer Bailey. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl is bottom of the rotation material. But Bailey shouldn't even be in the big leagues anymore. He's living off a couple of no-hitters. Bailey has been bad for several years now and he's getting worse with a 6.11 ERA. He's allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Cincinnati has lost 17 of Bailey's last 21 starts. Homer-friendly Great American Ball Park is a very bad fit for Bailey, a flyball pitcher. Kuhl has a history of pitching better on the road than at home and the Pirates hold a bullpen edge.
05-22-18	Marlins v. Mets -110		5-1	Loss	-110	9 h 46 m	Show
The Marlins have lost three in a row and still reeling from blowing a huge lead against the Braves this past Sunday when Atlanta scored six runs in the ninth.That was a devastating loss for such a young team. The Mets are playing much better having won four in a row. Caleb Smith is 1-3 with a 5.29 road ERA while Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a strong history against the Marlins with a 3- record and 2.15 ERA in eight starts.
05-21-18	Diamondbacks -115 v. Brewers		2-4	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
The lay price is low enough to back Zach Greinke, who still is an elite pitcher and in great form with a 1.45 ERA during his last three starts. Chase Anderson is due to come off the DL to pitch for Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched as well as he did last season and isn't in good form having allowed nine runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. What's worrisome about Anderson is he's surrendered 10 homers already in 45 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks know Anderson well, too, since he pitched for them in 2014 and 2015.
05-20-18	Indians +124 v. Astros	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	10 h 21 m	Show
It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity. I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco. The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest. Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park. The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.
05-18-18	A's v. Blue Jays -114		3-1	Loss	-114	9 h 4 m	Show
Playing on unfamiliar Astroturf has something to do with it, but Oakland just doesn't fare well at Rogers Centre when playing the Blue Jays on the road. The A's beat the Blue Jays for just the second time in the last 14 games in Toronto last night. I don't see the A's repeating that in a pitching matchup of Brett Anderson versus Marco Estrada. Oakland is 7-19 in its last 26 games on Astroturf. Estrada is pitching on an extra day of rest. Toronto is 9-3 the past 12 times Estrada has thrown on five days rest. I've lost all hope with Anderson. He's too brittle and inconsistent. This marks his fourth start of the season. He's been a tease and sure enough he looked good in his first start. However, he's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA during his last two starts. The Blue Jays know him well since Anderson made seven starts with Toronto last season compiling a 5.13 ERA.
05-15-18	Cubs -124 v. Braves		3-2	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
The Braves have been one of rhe surprise teams this season, but this is a bad spot for them. Atlanta is home for the first time in nine days. So concentration could be a problem. The Braves just beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday in a makeup game. So they lost their off day to get their domestic lives in order following a lengthy road trip. Look for the Cubs to even the series. They have won the past five times when playing in Atlanta. Yu Darvish goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Darvish is much better than he's shown so far with the Cubs. He returns from the DL supposedly with adjustments made. I see him getting turned around. Foltynewicz doesn't go deep into games putting a strain on a taxed Braves bullpen. He also has a poor history versus the Cubs with a lifetime mark of 0-2 and 7.36 ERA. The Braves are 3-12 in the righthander's last 15 starts. The Cubs have won 74 percent of their past 42 road games against righthanded starters.
05-14-18	Mariners v. Twins -105		1-0	Loss	-105	9 h 2 m	Show
Seattle is about to experience life without its rock, Robinson Cano. The eight-time All-Star second baseman is out with a broken hand suffered on Sunday. That's a shock for the Mariners. I'm going to fade them in this their first game without Cano this season. It's not just Cano being out. The Mariners are pitching journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc. The Twins are 10-1 (91%) in their last 11 home games when facing a southpaw starter. The Twins have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts.
05-11-18	Brewers v. Rockies -125		11-10	Loss	-125	10 h 45 m	Show
Chad Bettis has been pitching very well for the Rockies this season. He's 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. Colorado is 19-7 in his last 26 home starts. The Rockies are back to full health, too. So I'm willing to lay this price with Bettis against Brandon Woodruff, who is filling in for Zach Davies. The Brewers are 2-7 the past nine times facing a foe with a winning record.
05-10-18	Twins +136 v. Angels		4-7	Loss	-100	14 h 29 m	Show
I see excellent value to the Twins. The spot and pitching matchup is good for them. Minnesota was idle on Wednesday and has won five in a row. The Twins are averaging 6.4 runs during their win streak and playing well in all aspects. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Angels. There's a good chance the Twins activate Byron Buxton from the DL for this game. He could be the premier defensive centerfielder in baseball. The Angels blanked the Rockies in Colorado Wednesday. This is their first home game in a week so their concentration may be off. The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios against Garrett Richards. I regard the 23-year-old Berrios as not just an emerging star, but a star already. Richards made just 12 starts the previous two years due to serios injuries. He has been up and down this season. Just two starts ago he was racked at home by the Yankees giving up five earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Angels have played much better on the road than at home where they are 8-10 this season.
05-07-18	Twins +130 v. Cardinals		6-0	Win	130	13 h 34 m	Show
The Twins are playing better winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They are in a great spot to make it four victories in a row. The Cardinals just got through surviving a 14-inning, 4-3 win against the Cubs in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. St. Louis likely won't have its best offensive player, Tommy Pham, in the starting lineup due to a groin injury. Closer Bud Norris probably is out, too. The Cardinals' bullpen is carrying a heavy fatigue rating having just concluded two extra inning games. But what really makes it rough for John Gant, set to make his first big league start of the season for the Cardinals, is no Yadier Molina. Forget Molina's contributions on offense. He's a Hall of Fame defensive backstop. Molina's intangibles such as calling pitches and framing strikes is off the charts as is his veteran leadership. The Twins are pitching Fernando Romero, a top-100 prospect. This will be his second big league start. Romero held Toronto scoreless in 5 1/3 innings during his big league debut this past Wednesday. Romero averaged 96 mph on his fastball while striking out five. Romero's upside is far higher than Gant's.
05-06-18	Cubs +108 v. Cardinals	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 20 m	Show
Given that I prefer Jon Lester over Michael Wacha and the Cardinals have three important injuries, the Cubs are a worthy investment. Lester is having a strong season with a winning record and 2.73 ERA. The Cubs have won 68 percent of Lester's previous 59 starts. Lester has a solid 3.16 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis. Chicago is 4-0 the past four times Lester has gone against the Cardinals. I rate Wacha a tier lower than Lester. He's been fortunate to post a 4-1 mark this season with a 3.62 ERA. Wach has a bad history versus the Cubs going 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. St. Louis is 0-4 the last four times Wacha has gone against the Cubs. St. Louis isn't likely to have Tommy Pham, its best offensive weapon, Yadier Molina and closer Bud Norris. All suffered injuries in the Cardinals' come-from-behind victory on Saturday. The Cardinals' bullpen is further depleted with Dominic Leone out with a biceps injured.
05-04-18	Pirates v. Brewers -116	Top	6-4	Loss	-116	15 h 53 m	Show
We knew the Pirates were going to be bad this season and they are starting to prove that going 6-11 in their last 17 games, including losses in their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost in its last seven road games. I don't see the Pirates getting well against the Brewers, a team they have a history of struggling against. I'm looking to fade Nick Kingham. The long-time minor leaguer made his first big league start this past Sunday and took a perfect game into the seventh inning in a 5-0 win against the Cardinals. That was a huge thrill and a great debut. It certainly caught the Brewers' notice. Kingham has a 43-41 record in nine years in the minors. The Brewers are expected to have Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun in the lineup today. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise He was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 2016. He had a bad season last year, but has returned to his form of two years ago with a 2-1 mark and 0.82 ERA. He has not allowed more than one run during each of his four starts this season. The 33-year-old is a classic late bloomer. Opponents are batting only .176 against him. If you discount the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, Milwaukee would be 11-0 in its last 11 games.
05-03-18	Yankees v. Astros -120	Top	6-5	Loss	-120	10 h 8 m	Show
The Astros haven't lost three straight home games all season and I don't see it happening here. Not with a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus Lance McCullers. Tanaka has a 9.00 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Astros at Minute Maid Park and a 10.38 ERA mark versus Houston in four career starts. McCullers has a very strong history at Minute Maid Park where his lifetime ERA is 2.33 compared to 4.97 on the road. McCullers is in strong form with a 3-0 mark and 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He's faced the Yankees three times in his career and is 2-0 against them with a 2.08 ERA.
05-02-18	Yankees v. Astros +115		4-0	Loss	-100	11 h 51 m	Show
The chance to get Dallas Keuchel as an underdog is too much to pass up. Keuchel was back on track in two starts before his last outing. I see him bouncing back against the Yankees, a foe he has dominated. Keuchel is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six career regular season starts versus New York and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career playoff starts against the Yankees. Houston has won 71 percent of Keuchel's last 52 home starts. The Yankees are 1-7 in their past eight games at Minute Maid Stadium. Yankees starter Luis Severino emerged as a star last season. My handicap is based far more on Keuchel and the Astros than a fade on Severino. However, Sevrino is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in three career appearances against the Astros.
05-01-18	Brewers -113 v. Reds		7-6	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
I'll back Chase Anderson, the Brewers' best starting pitcher, at this short road price. The 30-year-old Anderson is a late-bloomer, who turned the corner last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He's continued in good form this season with a 2.86 ERA. He has a 2.68 lifetime ERA against the Reds in seven games. Anderson has a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season holding foes to a .127 batting average. Milwaukee is 8-3 in Anderson's past 11 starts. So it's reasonable to expect a solid game from Anderson. I also like the Brewers' bullpen better than the Reds even without closer Corey Knebel. Cincinnati has the worst record in the majors at 7-22. The Reds are a better team than that, but not that much better. They just got back Eugenio Suarez, but aren't likely to have Scotter Gennett in the starting lineup due to a sore throwing shoulder. He's the Reds' leading hitter with players who have more than 83 at bats. If you discount their recent series against the Cubs, the Brewers would be 9-0 in their last nine games. I'm not a fan of Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey. He seems to throw one excellent game and four bad ones for every five outings. The Reds are 7-19 in his last 26 starts. Cincinnati also has dropped 16 of its past 21 home contests. Bailey hasn't had a winning record during the past four seasons. His ERA during the past two years is 6.65 and 6.43. He's winless this season with a 4.19 ERA. He has a 4.65 career ERA versus Milwaukee in 26 games.
04-30-18	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -131	Top	5-8	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm sure the Dodgers will get straighten out. Right now, though, they are mess. Their 12-15 record is deserving. They have injuries and many of their better players are off to slow starts. Arizona, by contrast, has the best record in the National League at 19-8. The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a series this season. There's no reason for things not to continue the way they have in today's game. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace, Zach Greinke. Arizona is 22-8 in Greinke's last 30 home starts, including 14-1 the past two seasons. The Dodgers are going to go with Ross Stripling, who has pitched well this season but in middle relief. He's not expected to pitch too many innings so this is looking like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been below average this season. Arizona has dominated the Dodgers winning 11 of the past 12 regular season meetings, including going 5-1 this season with a three-gamd home sweep at the beginning of the month. The Dodgers are down Justin Turner and now Yasiel Puig, who was put on the DL Sunday. LA is 1-5 in its last six games and facing fatigue issues having played four games during the last three days, including a Saturday doubleheader. This is a cheap price to lay to get Greinke especially given the circumstances.
04-29-18	Rockies -109 v. Marlins		0-3	Loss	-109	2 h 47 m	Show
Better team. Better pitcher. Decent line value. So, yes, I'm on the Rockies here. The knock on the Rockies is they aren't a good road team. But they are 8-3 during their past 11 away contests. And they're playing the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in the majors. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 home games. Chad Bettis has been the Rockies' most consistent starter this season. He's pitched well away from Coors Field going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. He's in good form, too, with a 2.40 ERA in his last three starts. Bettis may avoid the Marlins' best power hitter, Justin Bour, who missed yesterday's game because of back spasms. Miami starter Caleb Smith has yet to win in the majors. The rookie is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA. The Rockies have the stronger lineup and it could be bolstered even more if DJ LeMathieu and Carlos Gonzalez are able to play.
04-25-18	Rays +105 v. Orioles		8-4	Win	105	6 h 38 m	Show
Tampa Bay has won four in a row. The Rays have scored 26 runs in their last three games. The Orioles are 6-17 on the season and have lost nine of their last 10. So, unless Dylan Bundy is on the mound, I'm fading the Orioles when they are chalk like they are here. The pitching matchup is Jake Faria versus Alex Cobb. Faria has a lot of upside. He's pitched well in three of his four starts this season giving up just one earned run in three of those outings. The Orioles are buried by injuries right now. Mark Trumbo and Colby Rasmus are out. Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham aren't likely to play. Trey Mancini could be out, too. These injuries have forced the Orioles to start Anthony Santander in the outfield and he's not ready for the big leagues yet. Cobb has a 15.43 ERA on the season giving up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in seven innings. Cobb signed late and I doubt he's in shape yet. The Rays know Cobb well since he pitched for them from 2011 through last season.
04-24-18	A's -109 v. Rangers		3-2	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year. Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago.
04-23-18	Mariners -142 v. White Sox		4-10	Loss	-142	12 h 31 m	Show
The White Sox are 1-8 at home. They've been lit up for 57 runs during their last six games with a horrific bullpen. The White Sox offense has produced two or fewer runs in seven of their past eight games. It's not a shock then that the White Sox are riding a seven-game losing streak. So Mike Leake's task shouldn't be that difficult. Leake is more innings-eater than star, but he's reliable and has pitched well since joining the Mariners last season. The White Sox have never faced him. The Mariners are 9-2 when scoring at least four runs. That shouldn't prove difficult against Carson Fulmer, who is replacing scheduled starter Miguel Gonzalez.
04-21-18	Mariners -157 v. Rangers		9-7	Win	100	12 h 9 m	Show
Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double. Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance. The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunimo
04-20-18	Indians -110 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-110	17 h 4 m	Show
I respect Dylan Bundy, but the Orioles are terrible and the price is low enough to back the much superior Indians. Baltimore is 5-14, losers of six in a row. Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball, better than the Orioles in every facet. The Indians have started to get into gear winning six of their last eight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland. Bauer looked sharp in his last outing giving up two runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Tigers this past Thursday in a 9-3 win. Bauer said he had his best stuff working for him in that game. Bundy has been the Orioles' lone decent starter this season. He's been helped pitching in cold weather. Still, the Orioles don't win for him. Baltimore is 1-6 in his last seven starts. The temperatures will be in the high 50's for this game, almost balmy compared to how cold it has been. Budy has a 5.06 career ERA versus the Indians in two starts. Cleveland has won 27 of its last 37 road games. The Indians have defeated the Orioles five times in a row.
04-19-18	Blue Jays +143 v. Yankees		3-4	Loss	-100	11 h 60 m	Show
Perception-wise this line makes some sense. The Yankees are the Yankees, the most public of teams, and they are home. But right now this line doesn't reflect reality. The Yankees are struggling. They are 8-8, batting only .248 and averaging more than one error per game. The Blue Jays are 12-5. They've won four in a row and have the better starting pitcher going in matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus CC Sabathia. Just two years ago, Sanchez was being regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He missed most of last season with blister issues. Sanchez is healthy this year and he's put together back-to-back quality starts. He has a 3.03 career ERA against the Yankees. Sabathia is in the twillight of his career and frequently gets hurt. He's coming off the DL to make this start. He last pitched on April 6 before straining his right hip. Sabathia has a 7.37 ERA during his past 12 starts against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Sabathia's past 12 starts against them.
04-14-18	Brewers +106 v. Mets		5-1	Win	106	15 h 46 m	Show
The Brewers are showing signs of turning around their offense. I like Milwaukee's Chase Anderson over Matt Harvey so the pitching matchup is in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers are 17-8 the past 25 times going against a right-handed starter and have defeated the Mets seven of the last 10 times despite losing by one run in the opening game of the series on Friday. The Mets are down to their third-string catcher. That's going to catch up to them real fast.
04-13-18	A's v. Mariners +110	Top	4-7	Win	110	13 h 8 m	Show
Throwing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field agrees with Mike Leake. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts at Safeco since coming to the Mariners last season. Leake is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Some perceive Leake as just an innings-eater. I believe he's better than that especially when pitching in Seattle. The Mariners have a dynamite speed offense that should be even better with the possibility of Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel returning today from injuries. The A's should not have opened a road favorite here. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has an 8.53 ERA in three appearances against Seattle, including two starts. Seattle has defeated Oakland in 12 of the last 19 meetings, winning seven of the last 10 at Safeco Field.
04-12-18	Cardinals -142 v. Reds		13-4	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Cardinals minus $1.45 at Reds Early money has steamed up the Cardinals and I can understand why. It's the right move as the Reds are as bad as ever under Bryan Price and Michael Wacha has owned Cincinnati. The Reds are on their way to a fourth straight 90-loss season - if not 100 losses - with the worst record in the majors at 2-9. Price is dead man walking. It's amazing the Red have stuck with him as long as they have. St. Louis is 11-1 versus the Reds in Wacha's 12 starts. Wacha has a 2.85 lifetime ERA against Cincinnat. Wacha's has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings pitching in Cincinnati. That's really impressive considering what a strong hitter's park that Great American Ball Park is. The Cardinals' bats should come alive there especially facing Sal Romano, perhaps the worst of the Reds' weak starting pitching. Romano has a 4.59 career ERA in 18 starts and has more walks than strikeouts this season.
04-11-18	Diamondbacks -110 v. Giants	Top	7-3	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
I find excellent value on the Diamondbacks here. Arizona is the superior team and should have a huge starting pitching mismatch. Robbie Ray is a "B" level pitcher who is elite status when it comes to strikeouts. He's 4-1 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts. This includes a 3-1 mark and 1.46 ERA in four career starts at San Francisco. , The Giants are going with untested Andrew Suarez, who only was called up due to Johnny Cueto going on the DL. The Diamondbacks have plenty of right-handed hitters who can hurt Suarez, including Paul Goldschmidt who got back on track last night.
04-10-18	A's v. Dodgers -121	Top	0-4	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
Both teams have started slow. In the case of the Dodgers they will get things turned around. I doubt the A's can do that because they aren't a very good team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are very unreliable. Oakland is hurt more than the Dodgers, too, by not having a DH since this game is at Dodgers Stadium. The A's outfield depth is being tested with Chad Pinder and Boog Powell going on the DL. This is a battle of lefties - Sean Manaea versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I like Ryu when he pitches at home where historically he has been much better than on the road. Oakland has lost 21 of its last 30 interleague games. The A's have lost 78 percent of their past 65 road games, too, when going against a southpaw starter. The Dodgers are a dominant 25-10 during their last 35 interleague home games.
04-08-18	Braves v. Rockies -133		4-0	Loss	-133	6 h 55 m	Show
The Braves have lost 13 of their last 16 games at Coors Field. Look for that trend to continue here in a pitching matchup of Sean Newcomb versus Kyle Freeland. Newcomb is a young power pitcher with command issues. Walking batters does not go well especially at Coors Field. Newcomb had a 1.57 WHIP last season and was wild again in his first start this season giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks in an 8-1 loss to the Nationals this past Monday. Newcomb has a 5.91 ERA in two career starts against Colorado. Freeland is at his best during day games at Coors Field with a 6-3 mark and 2.55 ERA in those circumstances. That's the situation here. Colorado is tough at home and has the better bullpen moreso now with Wade Davis in the closer role.
04-08-18	Diamondbacks +140 v. Cardinals		4-1	Win	140	5 h 47 m	Show
Nothing against Cardinals pitcher Luke Weaver. I like him. But I have to price enforce here because this line is too high providing value for Arizona. Taijuan Walker is a good young pitcher, too, with upside. The Diamondbacks are the better team. They are off to a 6-2 start this season despite Paul Goldschmidt batting only .115.
04-07-18	Cubs -149 v. Brewers	Top	5-2	Win	100	7 h 33 m	Show
Minus closer Corey Knebel and probably their best all-around player, outfielder ChristianYelich, the Brewers upset the Cubs, 5-4, on Friday scoring a run in the ninth inning to win it. Kudos to the Brewers, but I don't see them repeating that feat. Their lineup isn't as good as the Cubs even if Anthony Rizzo has to sit out a second straight game. The pitching matchup of Yu Darvish against Zach Davies and the bullpens also favor Chicago. I want the Cubs going for me here off their irritating loss.
04-06-18	Cubs -138 v. Brewers		4-5	Loss	-138	9 h 57 m	Show
Not only do the Cubs have a monster pitching edge, but they catch the Brewerrs likely without two of its best players. Closer Corey Knebel definitely is out for Milwaukee after suffering a hamstring injury on Thursday and Christian Yelich, the Brewers' top all-around player, is likely out, too, as he deals with an oblique injury. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is one of the most depenable starters in baseball. His career ERA of 2.93 is second only to Clayton Kershaw among active pitchers with 75 or more starts. Hendricks has dominated the Brewers at Miller Park, too, with a 4-1 career mark and 2.31 ERA there. Brandon Woodruff will be making just his seventh big league start. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Woodruff's home starts. Woodruff has some potential, but remains a work-in-progress and could get moved to the bullpen depending on how things play out with Knebel's injury.
04-04-18	Dodgers -118 v. Diamondbacks	Top	0-3	Loss	-118	7 h 53 m	Show
I like the Dodgers to salvage the final game of this series against the Diamondbacks after losing with Clayton Kershaw last night. Arizona suffered a key loss in that game, though, with third baseman Jake Lamb suffering a shoulder injury. I'm a fan of Dodgers starter Alex Wood. Not so with Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Wood was dominant last season going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA holding opposing batters to a .217 average. Wood opened this season in great style permitting only one hit in eight scorelessinnings against the Giants this past Friday. He was 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts versus Arizona last season with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings. Corbin has shown flashes, but never really has proven he can be trusted. The southpaw has struggled versus the Dodgers with a 3-9 lifetime mark and 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. He had a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers last season. LA is 9-3 in Wood's past 12 away outings and has won 14 of the past 18 times when drawing a lefty starter on the road.
04-03-18	Indians +129 v. Angels		2-13	Loss	-100	13 h 4 m	Show
The Indians have beaten the Angels 16 of the past 17 times, including the last 12. I'm going to ride that streak especially since the Indians are underdogs. The oddsmaker is putting too much stock in Garrett Richards, who remains on the comeback trail. Richards has made just 12 starts the past two seasons due to injuries. Richards wasn't sharp in his opener against the A's, a much inferior team compared to the Indians. Richards has a 4.40 career ERA against the Indians in 14 1/3 innings. Cleveland may be the best team in baseball. The Indians are going with Josh Tomlin, who draws very little respect. Tomlin, though, doesn't walk batters and is plus 11 wins during his career with the Indians. He's not sexy, but he is reliable. That's all the Indians need since they possess the much stronger bullpen.
04-03-18	Cardinals v. Brewers -120	Top	4-5	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
The price is right to back the Brewers, who have made themselves a strong playoff contender. Milwaukee is home and has its best starting pitcher going, Chase Anderson. Anderson still is a bit below the radar. He's a late bloomer who broke through last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This includes a 2-0 mark and 3.04 ERA in four starts versus the Cardinals. Anderson was sharp against the Padres in his first start this season throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only one hit allowed. The Cardinals are countering with righty Jack Flaherty, their No. 5 starter who soon could be departing back to the minors when Adam Wainwright is ready to pitch. Flaherty likely needs more seasoning. He had a 4.50 ERA in five spring training outings. The Brewers got a look at him late last season getting to Flaherty for four fours on five hits in five innings on Oct. 1. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games versus righty starters going back to last season.
04-02-18	Indians -113 v. Angels		6-0	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
It's no secret why the Indians have defeated the Angels 11 times in a row and 15 of the last 16. The Indians almost always have the superior pitcher going, have a stronger offense and the better bullpen. That's the case again in this matchup where the price is low enough to get involved with Cleveland. I like to target promising pitchers with upside who are below the radar where you don't have to pay an unfair price to back them. Mike Clevinger fits that description. Clevinger was outstanding on the road last season going 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He pitches with extra motivation against the Angels, the team where he spent his first three years after being drafted in 2011. Clevinger came on very strong at the end of last season posting a sub-1.00 ERA during his last 27 1/3 innings. The Angels' closer situation is unsettled and they have JC Ramirez starting. Ramirez is a borderline starter who doesn't have Clevinger's skill and talent set. Ramirez is on the comeback trail from an elbow injury that cost him the final six weeks of last year. He had a 5.40 ERA during spring training.
04-02-18	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +103	Top	7-8	Win	103	13 h 30 m	Show
Fear not the Dodgers when they play the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Arizona has won the last six times and the games haven't been close with the Diamondbacks outscoring LA by 27 runs during this span. I see the Diamondbacks making it seven straight regular season wins against the Dodgers today in a pitching matchup of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Taijuan Walker. Ryu is the Dodgers' No. 5 starter, who is much more effective whe pitching at Dodger Stadium. LA has lost in 11 of his last 15 road starts. Arizona is one of the better teams in the NL. Ryu is 1-10 during his last 11 road outings versus above .500 teams. The Diamondbacks, with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Polllock, are very tough against southpaws. Arizona was 25-17 versus lefties last season and already 1-0 this year. The Diamondbacks drew Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson two games ago and smashed him for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. Walker not only is a decent pitcher, but he is a breakout candidate having not reached his full potential yet. He posted a 3.32 ERA during the second half last season and was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers last year. Ryu was 0-1 in two starts against Arizona last season. He allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings and surrendered three homers during his lone Chase Field appearance last year. The Diamondbacks were idle on Sunday while the Dodgers had to play in the Sunday night game. So the scheduling dynamics are on Arizona's side.
04-01-18	Cardinals -135 v. Mets		5-1	Win	100	4 h 56 m	Show
It's just the start of the season, but already the Cardinals are frustrated losing their first two games to the Mets. St. Louis is the better team and the Cardinals have the superior starting pitcher going here. So I see them avoiding a sweep. Luke Weaver showed a lot of promise last season and he was impressive during spring training allowing only one run in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts while holding batters to a .113 average. The Mets have never faced Weaver giving him the element of surprise. The Cardinals go from seeing Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom to facing Steven Matz here. Matz wasn't healthy last season posting a 2-7 mark and 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. Matz is supposed to be past his elbow injuries, but he wasn't sharp in spring training with a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Matz went against the Cardinals once last season and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on July 9.
03-29-18	Yankees v. Blue Jays +140		6-1	Loss	-100	4 h 51 m	Show
The Yankees are going to be overpriced a lot this season especially early with all the hype surrounding them. Toronto is just the opposite. The Blue Jays are healthy and underrated. That makes them dangerous. This price is too high. The Yankees usually struggle in Toronto losing in 14 of their last 20 visits. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus J.A. Happ. Severino is a potential ace, but he has a poor track record against Toronto giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings against them. On the flip side is Happ having excellent success versus the Yankees going 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Happ finished 4-1 in his last five starts last season giving up just seven earned runs during this five-game span.
10-27-17	Dodgers +124 v. Astros		3-5	Loss	-100	22 h 48 m	Show
Houston is tough at home. But I'll take this plus price with the Dodgers, who have the better starting pitcher and bullpen. LA has followed each of its last four losses with a victory. The Dodgers also are 5-1 in their last six road games. The Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish for just such a spot here. Darvish has come through when the Dodgers have needed him most giving up only two runs during his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 inings. He's struck out 35 during this time frame while giving up a combined 19 htis and walks. Darvish knows how to pitch at Minute Maid Park with a lifetime mark of 4-1 and 2.16 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP in six career games there. Current Astros are batting just a combined .190 against Darvich. The Astros are the more powerful team, but the roof is going to be closed reducing Houston's power. Houston is pitching Lance McCullers. The Astros have lost eight of the last nine times McCullers has started.
10-20-17	Yankees v. Astros -131	Top	1-7	Win	100	41 h 44 m	Show
The Yankees have been dominant at home going 19-3 in their last 22 games at Yankee Stadium. The Astros have been equally dominant at home winning 15 of their last 17 games at Minute Maid Park. This includes a 4-0 playoff record. This game is at Minute Maid Parik. The Yankees are 1-4 in their five playoff road games. Home field certainly means a lot here. But there are other factors why I'm so strong on the Astros in this game. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Justin Verlander. Severino had a breakout season reaching his high ceiling. But he's largely untested in playoff, pressure games. Verlander is a proven pro. The former AL MVP is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA all-time in postseason action. Verlander has been the absolute nuts since joining the Astros going 8-0 in eight sarts. He's been at his finest during the playoffs, too, going 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA. The Astros finished the regular season with the No. 1 offense in the majors. They are batting a puny .147 in this ALCS. Masahiro Tanaka has been a huge problem for them. Tanaka has held the Astros to two runs in 13 innings. But the Astros aren't facing Tanaka here. The Yankees not only lose their huge home field advantage, but also their momentum with Thursday's travel day. This also gives the Astros a much needed day to regroup. If the Yankees do indeed beat Verlander and the Astros here in Houston, they are most deserving of the American League pennant. I don't see that happening, though, in this Game 6.
10-16-17	Astros v. Yankees -124	Top	1-8	Win	100	14 h 37 m	Show
After facing past Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, the Yankees get to square off now against mediocre Charlie Morton. Down 2-0 in this ALCS, the Yankees' season is on the line. The good news is they are home now. The Yankees went 51-30 at home during the regular season. They then went 2-0 versus the Indians at Yankee Stadium after losing the first two road games of that playoff series. Houston is a bit fat and happy after squeezing out a pair of one-run victories at home. The Astros went an amazing 80-37 versus right-handed starters, but were just 21-24 against southpaw starters. The Yankees are starting lefty CC Sabathia. The 37-year-old Sabathia has been solid in the playoffs knowing he's only going to go around five innings. So he doesn't have to hold anything back. Joe Girardi is going to come in with his best relievers knowing this is a do-or-die spot for the Yankees.
10-08-17	Indians -114 v. Yankees	Top	0-1	Loss	-114	14 h 8 m	Show
Masahiro Tanaka is inconsistent. You're never sure what you're going to get from him. That's not the case with Carlos Carrasco. He gets overshawdowed by teammate Corey Kluber, but Carrasco is an elite pitcher. Carrasco has pitched brilliantly on the road going 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 17 road outings. He's in tremendous form, too, going 6-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts. The Indians are the hottest team in baseball winning 44 of their last 52 games. The price is right to back them against what has to be a demoralized Yankees squad. Joe Girardi picked a bad time to turn in maybe the worst managed game of the season this past Friday. The Yankees blew a five-run lead in what turned out to be a 9-8 loss in 13 innings. Girardi not only lifted CC Sabathia too early, but failed to challenge an obvious miscall by the umpire that Lonnie Chisenhall had been hit by a pitch. In the process, Girardi put his bullpen in a serious fatigue spot for this game with Dellin Betances likely unavailable. Those bad decisions by Girardi clearly cost the Yankees the game.
10-08-17	Astros -135 v. Red Sox		3-10	Loss	-135	9 h 11 m	Show
You can pull the fork out now. The Red Sox are cooked. The Red Sox have injuries and I don't trust their frame of mind. The Astros have destroyed Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz in winning the first two games of this playoff series. Don't look for Doug Fister to save Boston. He's given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 16 2/3 innings allowing 24 hits and seven walks. The Astros are batting .343 in the series and have smashed six homers. Houston starter Brad Peacock has given up two earned runs or less during his past seven starts. Houston is 12-4 in Peacock's last 16 road starts. Boston is 1-4 in Fister's last five starts at Fenway Park.
10-06-17	Red Sox +170 v. Astros		2-8	Loss	-100	11 h 52 m	Show
There is a lot of value taking Boston at this plus price. Lefty Drew Pomeranz isn't getting enough respect here. He went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road this season and was 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two starts against Houston. Pomeranz is in good form, too, giving up fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts. The Astros are just 21-24 against lefthanded starters. The Red Sox have won 17 of the last 21 times Pomeranz has pitched versus an above .500 team. I like Dallas Keuchel. But he last pitched way back on Sept. 26. Houston is 2-6 the last eight times Keuchel has pitched with nine or more days rest. Boston has the superior bullpen, too, with a 3.15 ERA compared to Houston's bullpen ERA of 4.27.
10-05-17	Red Sox v. Astros -121	Top	2-8	Win	100	26 h 4 m	Show
Chris Sale hasn't been an underdog all season - until now. There's good reason for this. Sale is worn down. This isn't the star lefty who went 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA during his first 24 starts, but the southpaw who is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA during his past eight starts. Sale surrendered four homers to the Blue Jays in his last start. Sale is facing an opponent that led the majors in runs and batting average while finishing No. 2 in homers. The Astros also compiled the second highest OPS versus southpaws. On the flip side, Houston starter Justin Verlander is pitching his finest ball going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros. Unlike Sale who has no playoff experience, Verlander is a proven postseason performer with a 3.39 ERA in 16 career playoff starts. The Astros have the stronger offense and the better pitcher going. The price is lower than it should be based on Sale's reputation. That reputation, though, should just be for the first four months of the season not October.
10-01-17	Tigers +133 v. Twins		1-5	Loss	-100	8 h 2 m	Show
I like the value here. The Twins have clinched a playoff spot and will be resting regulars just like on Saturday when Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton didn't play. Oh, yes, Bartolo Colon is starting for Minnesota. The washed-up 44-year-old is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his last four starts. Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez is in much better form turning in quality starts during his last three outings. Sanchez has allowed four earned runs in 18 innings during this span.
09-27-17	Braves -101 v. Mets	Top	1-7	Loss	-101	16 h 10 m	Show
Given all the Mets injuries, the Braves are the better team. Atlanta also has the better pitcher going and superior closer. Lefty Sean Newcomb is pitching much better than when he came up, having cut down his walk ratio. Atlanta is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Newcomb has given up three runs or fewer during his last four starts. Newcomb just beat the Mets at home, 3-2, 11 days ago as a $1.20 favorite. He went 5 1/3 innings and had eight strikeouts with only one walk. The price is cheaper here. New York is 3-13 the past 16 times facing a southpaw starter. The Mets also are 3-7 in Robert Gsellman's last 10 starts. Gsellman has regressed horribly this season after a promising 2016. He has a a 5.38 ERA and has pitched only marginally better since returning from a hamstring injury suffered in June. The Mets could be without their two late-inning pitchers. A.J. Ramos is hurt and Jeurys Familia has pitched four of the last five days, including the past two going an inning on Monday and an inning on Tuesday. Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino, who is better than Familia, is well rested.
09-27-17	Mariners v. A's -115		5-6	Win	100	13 h 1 m	Show
The A's and Kendall Graveman are below the radar. Oakland has won 14 of its last 19 games. The A's are getting strong offensive support and their bullpen has come around. Graveman has been doing his part. Graveman is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last three starts. He's been very strong at home with a 5-0 mark and 2.79 ERA. He's also been good in day games with a 2-0 record and 3.20 ERA. Let's contrast this with Seattle starter Erasmo Ramirez, who is 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA on the road. His record during the day is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA. The Mariners have lost 17 of 21 times that Ramirez has pitched against a division foe. The Mariners are out of playoff contention, playing the string out. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games, scoring three runs or less in six of those games.
09-25-17	Mariners v. A's +107	Top	7-1	Loss	-100	15 h 35 m	Show
The A's youth movement has been paying off. Playing without any pressure, Oakland has won seven in a row and 14 of its last 17 games. Only twice in their last nine games, have the A's surrendered more than three runs. While morale is up with the A's the opposite is the case with Seattle. The Mariners were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday after losing to the Indians at home. Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine games and could be resting regulars with its season finished. The Mariners aren't likely to have injured shortstop Jean Segura. Speedy outfielder Jarrod Dyson already is out for the season. Without thow two, the Mariners have no running game. The pitching matchup pits Felix Hernandez against Daniel Gossett. King Felix is on a downward slope. Bothered by shoulder problems, he's only 5-5 with a 4.57 ERA this year. Clearly, he's not the same pitcher. The rookie Gossett has made 16 big league starts this season. He has a 5.38 ERA, but has been pitching better giving up three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.
09-25-17	Angels v. White Sox +140		2-4	Win	140	13 h 41 m	Show
It's the Angels who are chasing playoff hopes. But it's the White Sox who are playing better winning nine of their last 15 games. The Angels just ended a six-game losing streak by beating the Astros. That victory came in the Sunday night game in Houston. So the Angels are traveling after playing at night, a bad situational spot. The White Sox are playing loose but playing hard. They have youngsters in their lineup, but these youthful players are highly talented. Chicago just took two of three from the Royals, who also held playoff aspirations. The Angels are in must-win mode, which can lead to tightness. The pitching matchup is Ricky Nolasco versus James Shields. That's bad versus bad so why not take a plus price in a battle of journeymen? Nolasco hasn't won in his last six starts. He is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the White Sox. Shields was one of the worst pitchers in baseball earlier in the season. But he's made some adjustments that have brought his ERA down. He does have a solid history versus the Angels with a 6-4 lifetime mark and 3.13 ERA in 14 startts.
09-25-17	Nationals +122 v. Phillies		3-1	Win	122	11 h 28 m	Show
Even though the Nationals have nothing to play for, I still like them in an underdog role against the Phillies. Washington has won seven of its last nine road games. The Nationals have had great success in Philadelphia winning 17 of the past 22 times there. The Nationals have excellent depth. The Phillies have been playing a lot of youth. So I'm fine if the Nationals choose to sit out a couple of regulars. There's a strong possibility Bryce Harper returns to Washington's lineup today. Harper was batting .326 with 29 homers and 87 RBI's when he was injured on Aug. 12. He hasn't played since. There will be a buzz, if not outright spark for Washington, if Harper does play. Nationals starter A.J. Cole has been pitching better with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander beat the Phillies at Citizens Band Park back in May holding the Phillies to one run in six innings. The Phillies have lost 69 percent of their last 96 games against righy starters. Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. He's had more difficulty against the Nationals than any other team with a 1-3 career record and 4.69 ERA.
09-23-17	Nationals -180 v. Mets		4-3	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
If these were normal circumstanes, I would never lay anywhere close to this price in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Noah Syndergaard. But they are not. Syndergaard is making his first appearance since April 30. He's only going to pitch one inning. Then Matt Harvey will take over. Harvey is trying to overcome his own injury woes. Since returning from the DL, Harvey has a 13.19 ERA in four starts. The Mets are letting Harvey pitch through his trouble. This sets up the Nationals offense, which ranks No. 3 in runs and batting average. Strasburg has been dominant giving up only three runs in his last six starts spanning 41 innings. He has a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus the Mets this season. The Nationals are 21-5 in Strasburg's last 26 road starts. Washington should have incentive, too, after blowing a five-run lead in a 7-6 loss Friday in the series opener.
09-23-17	Royals -175 v. White Sox		8-2	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The Royals are in must-win mode trailing the Twins by 4 1/2 games for the final wild-card slot in the AL. Kansas City catches a nice break here drawing White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey. There may not be a worst starting pitcher in the majors than Covey. Bad starters usually get yanked out of the rotation very soon. Not Covey. He's part of the White Sox rebuild, youth movement. So he keeps taking his turn in the rotation and the White Sox keep losing whenever he pitches. Covey has yet to win in 10 big league starts and 17 appearances. His ERA on the season is 8.18. Covery has surrendered 18 homers and 31 walks in 58 1/3 innings. Covey is 0-2 versus the Royals with a 6.61 ERA. Danny Duffy gets the call for the Royals. Duffy was pitching well until going on the DL with a knee injury. He returned this past Sunday and held the red-hot Indians to one earned run on one hit with eight strikeouts in five innings. Duffy was limited to 65 pitches in that start. He'll go longer here.
09-21-17	Rockies -125 v. Padres		0-3	Loss	-125	13 h 44 m	Show
I see Tyler Anderson getting the job done for the Rockies against the weak hitting Padres. Anderson was dominant against San Diego this past Saturday giving up only two hits and two walks in six innings during a 16-0 romp. Since returning from the DL 11 days ago, Anderson is 2-0 and hasn't allowed a run in 10 innings. He carries a 0.73 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, too, in two starts. The Padres are going with Clayton Richard, who has a 9.98 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. Lifetime, Richard has a 5.60 ERA against the Rockies in 18 appearances, including 17 starts. The Rockies are the much stronger team and have playoff motivation. Given their pitching edge here, this is a short price to lay.
09-20-17	Cardinals -157 v. Reds	Top	9-2	Win	100	12 h 57 m	Show
He's far from a household name, but Luke Weaver may be the hottest pitcher in baseball. The Cardinals right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.15 ERA during his last five starts. The Cardinals have won these five games by a combined margin of 22 runs. The Cardinals are in must-win mode trailing Colorado by 3 1/2 games for the second NL wild-card spot. The Cardinals have gotten healthy, too, with power-hitting middle infielder Jedd Gyorko back on the field. Matt Carpenter should be in the lineup, too, after getting a day off on Tuesday. The Reds are in rebuild mode pitching different rookies nearly every game. Today the Reds are going with one of their lesser arms, Rookie Davis. And, yes, Rookie is rookie. He's 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in five big league starts.
09-17-17	Pirates -108 v. Reds		2-5	Loss	-108	6 h 30 m	Show
This low price gets me involved with the Pirates here in a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Robert Stephenson. Cole isn't back to the ace status of two years ago, but he's been very solid. Cole has been especially strong on the road where his ERA is 2.90 during his past nine away starts. This includes a 1-0 win against the Reds on Aug. 26. Cole won't have to deal with the most feared basestealer in baseball as Billy Hamilton is on the DL with a broken thumb. The Reds seem to be pitching rookies every day. Today they are going with Robert Stephenson, who has a 5.45 ERA and remains a work-in-progress with control problems.
09-16-17	Rangers +120 v. Angels		0-2	Loss	-100	10 h 39 m	Show
Cole Hamels has a strong history against the Angels with a 4-1 record and 2.87 ERA in nine career starts. He's 2-0 with a 2.36 ERA this season against them this season. Hamels is superior to Parker Bridwell, who has fallen back to Earth where he belongs. Birdwell last won on Aug. 13. He has an 11.25 ERA in his past three starts.
09-16-17	Pirates +109 v. Reds		1-2	Loss	-100	5 h 46 m	Show
I know the Pirates have been fade material this month, but I see this as a nice bounceback spot for them and Ivan Nova against Reds rookie Sal Romano. Nova has had a tough second half, but is a quality pitcher. The Pirates still have a number of quality hitters in their lineup, especially with Greogory Polanco back healthy. Romano has a higher ERA than Nova and has suffered two losses to the Pirates already this season. He's allowed six runs in 11 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh.
09-15-17	Blue Jays -107 v. Twins		4-3	Win	100	10 h 25 m	Show
It's a testament on how washed-up Bartolo Colon is that he's being celebrated as coming through for the Twins when his ERA is 4.69 in 11 outings since joining Minnesota. The 44-year-old Colon could be hitting the wall as the long season winds down. He couldn't get out of the second inning in his last start this past Sunday at Kansas City giving up six runs on six hits. Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, on the other hand, is in excellent form going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA during his past three starts. The Twins are only one game above .500 when playing at home. Toronto has been very disappointing this season. But the Happ versus Colon mismatch is worth the small lay price on the visiting Blue Jays.
09-15-17	A's v. Phillies -118	Top	4-0	Loss	-118	9 h 21 m	Show
The Phillies are supposed to be bad. But don't tell that to Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams. Sparked by these three youngsster - all of whom are batting .300 or above - the Phillies have won eight of their last 14 games. They are averaging 7.3 runs during their last six games. The good times should roll on for at least another game as the Phillies match up against Daniel Mengden and an A's team that has the worst road mark in the majors at 22-49. Mengden will be making his fourth big league start. He has a 7.07 ERA. Philadelphia starter Mark Leiter Jr. pitches much better at home where his ERA is 1.87.
09-13-17	Mariners v. Rangers +101	Top	8-1	Loss	-100	18 h 2 m	Show
Even though they lost to Seattle Tuesday night, the Rangers have dominated the Mariners in Arlington winning eight of the past 10. Look for the Rangers to get back on track today in a pitching matchup of Mike Leake versus Martin Perez. Leake had hit a wall in St. Louis. Leake has temporarily found new life in Seattle winning both of his starts for the Mariners. I don't see things going smooth for him in this his third start as AL opponents are now up on him. The Rangers have scored four or more runs in nine of their last 11 games and Arlington is a tough place to pitch at especially this time of year. Perez doesn't get much respect. All he does, though, is win going 7-0 in his past seven outings. Only once during this span has Perez given up more than three runs.
09-12-17	Astros -118 v. Angels		1-0	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
On paper, this is a marquee pitching matchup: Justin Verlander versus Garrett Richards. Verlander can still bring it. He's 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA since the All-Star break. Only twice in his last 11 starts as he permitted more than two earned runs. Verlander was brilliant in his Astros debut last Tuesday against the Mariners. He'll be highly motivated here for new team. The Astros should be fully focused, too, after an embarrassing four-game sweep by the As. Richards is pitching for just the third time, including minors, since being out five months with a biceps strain. He's going to be on a pitch count of around 65-70 pitches. So the Astros, the No. 1 offensive team in baseball, get Richards trying to find his way back and a vulnerable Angels bullpen. Houston has had good success playing the Angels on the road winning 10 of the last 14.
09-09-17	Twins v. Royals +106		2-5	Win	106	9 h 42 m	Show
The Twins have lost the past four times they've pitched Jose Berrios against the Royals. I expect that streak to continue here especially with this game in Kanas City. Berriors has a very high ceiling. He's pitched well at home going 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA. But he's been another pitcher on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.43 ERA. Minnesota is 0-8 during Berriors last eight road starts. Berrios has an 8.20 career ERA versus Kansas City in four outings. The Twins aren't likely to have their closer, Matt Belisle, either. He has pitched the past three days. Royals starter Jake Junis isn't as highly regarded as Berrios. Junis, though, quietly has done a good job. He is 7-2, tied for the lead among American League rookies for victories. Junis is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. He's posted an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.
09-07-17	Marlins -113 v. Braves	Top	5-6	Loss	-113	10 h 10 m	Show
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Marlins and a favorable matchup for them. Miami has dropped four in a row. But the Marlins have the superior starter going in Dan Straily against Sean Newcomb and ripe circumstances. The Braves aren't playing that well either. They are 16 games under .500 and in full rebuild mode with three-fourths of their infield manned by rookies. Atlanta just played a wild doubleheader on Wednesday splitting against the Rangers with a combined 29 runs being scored. It's left the Braves bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating. Newcomb doesn't go deep into games and walks too many batters averaging six bases on balls per nine innings. Newcomb hasn't been able to record an out past the fifth inning during his last three starts. Atlanta is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Home run leader Gincarlo Stanton loves Atlanta's Sun Trust Park having homered three times there in six games. Straily should do his part. He's 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this season.
09-06-17	Nationals -121 v. Marlins	Top	8-1	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
Gio Gonzalez is having a huge season and he dominates the Marlins. Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts versus the Marlins this season. The last time he pitched against the Marlins was Aug. 9 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts. Gonzalez, who is from Miami, is 9-3 career-wise versus the Marlins with a 1.94 ERA in 15 starts. Dillon Peterts is set to make his second big league start for the Marlins. Peters was brilliant in his debut throwing seven scoreless innings against the Phillies this past Friday. Opponents now know about Peters, though, and the Nationals have a much more potent lineup especially with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth back from injury. The Marlins are at low ebb having lost eight of their past nine games to fall out of realistic playoff contention. Concentration could be a problem, too, for the Marlins as they are leaving town following this game. There is much concern about the expected effects of Hurricane Irma. The hurricane is due to strike the Miami area by Sunday morning. So it's understandable if the Marlins aren't completely focused.
09-04-17	Rangers +104 v. Braves		8-2	Win	104	10 h 37 m	Show
Texas has been strong during interleague going 12-5. The Rangers should be focused trailing by three games for the second AL wild-card spot. The Braves are going with a lot of youth with three-fourths of their infield being rookies. The only non-rookie in the infield is Freddie Freeman their best player. Freeman is having his wrist examined today so there's a chance he might not be in the lineup. That would be a huge plus for Rangers starter Andrew Cashner, who has been pitching his most consistent ball of his career. Cashner has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. He went 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA during July/August. The Braves are pitching 42-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. There's always a wild card factor when a knuckleballer takes the mound. But the Rangers have incentive, are going with a hot pitcher and the youthful Braves may not have their full concentration since this is their first game back from a seven-game road trip.
09-04-17	Twins v. Rays -118		4-11	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
The Rays rank eighth in the majors in homers. They have hit at least one homer in 14 straight games. The Twins can't match that power. The pitching matchup favors the Rays, too, with Jose Berrios versus Alex Cobb. Berrios has a very high ceiling. But he has not been good on the road going 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA. Cobb is underrated. He should have more wins that he does. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last three starts, none of which resulted in a win for him. Cobb also is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts.
09-04-17	Brewers -114 v. Reds	Top	4-5	Loss	-114	5 h 53 m	Show
The Brewers regained some needed confidence going 6-2 in their last eight games, including posting a combined five victories against the powerful Dodgers and Nationals. Milwaukee is going with maybe its best pitcher, Chase Anderson. He's been solid in his three starts since returning from the DL. The Brewers have a rested Corey Knebel giving them a strong bullpen edge, too. Anderson is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts versus the Reds. Reds starter Homer Bailey was once a promising pitcher. Injuries have messed him up. He really shouldn't be in a starting rotation with just five quality outings in 13 starts. Bailey is at his worst pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and during the day. That's the situation for him today. Bailey is 0-5 with a 9.95 ERA at home this season. In day action this season, he's 1-4 with a 13.29 ERA.
09-03-17	Angels v. Rangers +121	Top	6-7	Win	121	13 h 46 m	Show
It's no wonder the Rangers have won all five of Martin Perez's last five starts. The southpaw has held four of his past five opponents to two earned runs or less. The Angels have lost the past four times going against a lefty starter. Perez goes for the Rangers here against Angels lefty Andrew Heaney, who is on the comeback trail after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. This marks Heaney's fourth start of the season. He has been up and down, which often is the case for those pitchers in their first year back from serious elbow surgery. The Rangers just saw Heaney on Aug. 23. They smacked three homers off him in five innings in a 7-5 victory. Texas is 18-14 versus southpaw starters this season. Texas is short-handed in the bullpen with setup men Matt Bush and Keone Kela on the DL. But closer Alex Claudio didn't pitch Saturday and the Angels also have an unsettled bullpen without a definitive closer right now.
09-02-17	Diamondbacks v. Rockies -107		6-2	Loss	-107	13 h 23 m	Show
I like Jon Gray going for me with the Rockies at home and in circle-the-wagons mode. The Rockies have the more rested key relievers and Gray has started to pitch like a No. 1 pitcher, which the Rockies have always envisioned. Gray has a 2.58 ERA in his last six starts. Lefty Patrick Corbin always has been pitching very well lately. But the Rockies are 21-15 versus southpaws and own a good history against Corbin, who has a 5.23 career ERA against Colorado in 15 appearances, including 14 starts. Corbin has a 6.97 ERA in two starts against Colorado earlier this season.
08-30-17	A's +130 v. Angels		8-10	Loss	-100	12 h 25 m	Show
The Angels are going for a three-game sweep of the A's at home today. I don't see them getting it. The A's have proven resilient going 10-4 the past 14 times when playing Game 3 of a series. Before their two losses to open this series, the A's had gone 4-1. Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is hitting his stride after being out more than two months. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts spanning 20 innings. Graveman has a 3.19 career ERA against the Angels in nine starts. Mike Trout has missed the last two games due to a stiff neck and is questionable. Trout has failed to get a hit in his last 17 at bats. Angels starter rookie Parker Bridwell has pitched better than anyone expected with a 2.89 ERA in nine starts. Bridwell is due for some regression and hasn't pitched as well at home where his ERA is 3.56.
08-30-17	Red Sox v. Blue Jays -113	Top	7-1	Loss	-113	10 h 38 m	Show
After facing southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who has been hot, and Chris Sale, the premier lefty in the American League, the Blue Jays now get righty Rick Porcello. That's a big dropoff. Porcello has yielded a career-worst 31 homers already this season and is coming off a Friday start against the Orioles where he gave up 11 runs on nine hits in fewer than five innings, although it should be noted seven of those runs were unearned. Porcello has a 4.70 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in 18 outings, including 17 starts. The Blue Jays have hit the 13th most homers in the majors. Boston is a highly-impressive 60-42 against righties. The Red Sox, however, are only 15-15 versus lefty starters. They were under .500 against southpaws until beating Toronto and Brett Anderson, 3-0, last night. The much traveled and injured Anderson, though, pitched well against the Red Sox holding them to one run on six hits with no walks in 5 2/3 innings. Southpaw J.A. Happ is better than Anderson and he goes against the Red Sox today. Happ went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last year. Happ isn't having that kind of season this year, but he's been solid holding eight of his last 12 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He has a 3.66 career ERA in 13 starts against Boston. The Red Sox remain without two key players, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.
08-28-17	Red Sox +108 v. Blue Jays	Top	6-5	Win	108	15 h 10 m	Show
Getting out of Boston is the tonic for the Red Sox, who were just swept at home by the Orioles. Now the Red Sox head to Toronto. They are 7-3 against the Blue Jays this season, including 5-1 at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. They'll find themselves. The Blue Jays won't. Toronto is eight games below .500 and are 2-7 in its last nine games. The Blue Jays are 11-19 versus left-handed starters this year and facing hot southpaw Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has won his last seven decisions. He has a 1.59 ERA during his past five starts. Pomeranz always had talent he was just held back by injuries. Now he's dealing and has a strong history against the Blue Jays going 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA. He's 2-0 versus Toronto this season with a 0.71 ERA. Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. But he's not in the form Pomeranz is and has a worse bullpen behind him. Stroman was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs on eight hits - including three homers - in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays this past Wednesday. Stroman has a 4.47 career ERA in nine starts against Boston. He's 0-1 versus the Red Sox with a 4.76 ERA in two starts this year.
08-27-17	Astros -122 v. Angels	Top	7-5	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
The Astros have a lot going for them in this bounce back spot after blowing Saturday's game to the Angels, 7-6. Jose Altuve may be the best player in the American League and he's back in the lineup. So is catcher Brian McCann, who has nine homers in 73 career at bats against Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, a career journeyman, opposes Charie Morton, who is having perhaps his finest season. The right-handed Nolasco's ERA is above 5.00. The Astros average just a shade under six runs per game versus righty starters. The Angels have lost seven of the past 10 times Nolasco has pitched at home. Houston has won 67 percent of its last 61 road contests. Morton is 2-0 lifetime versus the Angels with a 3.24 ERA in three starts. If Altuve isn't the best player in the American League than Mike Trout is Trout, however, is hitless in his last four games.
08-26-17	Giants +112 v. Diamondbacks	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	17 h 18 m	Show
The Giants are not a team to back on the road - except in a case like this with Madison Bumgarner opening as a 'dog against a cold pitcher. Pride is at stake for Bumgarner, who has a winning record and 2.81 ERA in eight starts since returning from the DL. Bumgarner has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Bumgarner also has a lifetime winning mark versus the Diamondbacks with a 2.58 ERA in 28 appearances, including 27 starts. Bumgarner certainly can be counted on to give San Francisco a quality performance here. The same can't be said for Arizona starter Taijuan Walker. The Diamondbacks have lost seven of the last eight times Walker has pitched. Walker is winless during his past 10 starts and has a 4.76 ERA in three starts against the Giants this year.
08-25-17	Astros -110 v. Angels	Top	2-1	Win	100	17 h 46 m	Show
The Astros aren't playing well losing 16 of their last 25. They aren't likely to have AL batting leader Jose Altuve either. But I like them, especially at this price, to take care of business against the Angels. Houston is 8-0 the past eight times Collin McHugh has started against the Angels. He gets the call here looking better and better since returning from an elbow injury that had sidelined him for much of the season. McHugh blanked the A's in his last start this past Saturday going six innings. McHugh has a 2.55 lifetime ERA versus the Angels. That ERA shrinks even more to 2.25 when he's pitched at Angel Stadium. Mike Trout is the key to the Angels and he's in a 3-for-23 slump. Parker Bridwell has been a major surprise for the Angels. The Angels are unbeaten in his last eight starts. I don't see that continuing. McHugh is the better pitcher and the Astros are the superior team even without Altuve.
08-24-17	Diamondbacks -139 v. Mets	Top	3-2	Win	100	11 h 49 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are the far superior team and have a strong pitching edge, too, in this matchup. All-Star Robbie Rays returns from a concussion. The Diamondbacks have been extra careful with him. Now he's ready. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He also has a 0.53 lifetime ERA in 17 innings versus the Mets. New York, losers of eight of its last 10, are starting Rafael Montero. He's only in the Mets' starting rotation due to a cluster injury problem that has sidelined all of the Mets' projected starters except Jacob deGrom. Montero is 1-7 at home with a 5.89 ERA. Arizona has a top-10 offense, while the Mets have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 10 games having traded many of their front line players in an effort to rebuild.
08-23-17	Diamondbacks -154 v. Mets	Top	2-4	Loss	-154	15 h 22 m	Show
Unless Jacob deGrom is pitching, the Mets are clear fade material. The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 games putting them at a season-worst 16 games below .500. New York has dropped eight of its past nine games. The Mets also can't beat Arizona having lost 10 of their last 11 to the Diamondbacks. The Mets only have a few of their projected starters. They just lost All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto to a thumb injury. This leaves the Mets with an extremely weak lineup. The Diamondbacks have a top-10 offense, are in a playoff race and have the superior pitching matchup with Zack Godley opposing rookie Chris Flexen. Godley has pitched much better than his 5-6 record. He holds a 3.13 ERA and averages more than nine strikeouts per nine innings. Godley has a 1.80 career ERA in 15 innings against the Mets. Flexen has been pushed to the big league level due to the many Mets pitching injuries, which include all of their starters except deGrom. Flexen, who went directly to the majors from Class AA skipping Triple A, has a 6.55 ERA and control problems having given up four or more walks in three of his last five starts.He has issued more bases on balls than he has strikeouts.
08-22-17	Diamondbacks -163 v. Mets		7-4	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
Do you recall journeyman Tommy Milone? Here's a refresher. He began the year with the Brewers before being cut. The Mets picked him up and actually gave him three early-season starts. Milone went 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA during those outings before suffering a knee injury. Now Milone has resurfaced due to yet another Mets starting pitcher injury with Steven Matz done for the year. The Mets are now down five starting pitchers. Hence, Milone being back in the bigs - at least for now. Milone has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Not surprisingly they didn't go well. He's 0-1 lifetime against them with a 7.59 ERA. The Mets are at low ebb. They have waved the white flag dealing a number of their veterans. New York has dropped seven of its last eight games and have lost 25 of the past 38 times when facing an above .500 foe. The Mets also have lost nine of their last 10 to the Diamondbacks. Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is pitching his best ball. He held the Cubs and Astros - two far better offensive teams than the Mets - scoreless during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Corbin has a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those last two games. Since All-Star break, Corbin has gone 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts.
08-21-17	Rangers +137 v. Angels	Top	5-3	Win	137	19 h 15 m	Show
This is big game for the Rangers, who trail the Twins and Angels by 2 1/2 games for the last wild card spot. Cole Hamels is a big-game pitcher and has a strong history versus the Angels. He also has been very good since July. Hamels is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA from July on. He is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven lfetime games against the Angels, including posting a 0.61 ERA in two starts this season. Tyler Skaggs has pitched decently since coming off the DL following being out for three months with a strained obligue. Skaggs doesn't have Hamels' big game experience, though, and has a 5.46 career mark against the Rangers in six starts, including two this season. The Rangers will be without slugger Joey Gallo and Carlos Gomez. These are two streaky players, though, who don't hit for a high average. The Rangers are averaging 7.4 runs during their last 10 games. Texas has less of a distance to travel for this game than the Angels, who are returning home from the East Coast. The Angels haven't been home since Aug. 9. So the spot isn't good for them mentally returning to Anaheim for the first time in such a long while.

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