Everything lines up here for the Rays, including line value, making this a very strong play.

The Rays have won 74 percent of their last 35 games going 26-9. The Orioles remain a huge disappointment. They've lost four of their last five games to drop to 34-46, the third-worst record in the American League.

Tampa Bay has a strong pitching edge here, too, with Rayn Pepiot facing regressing Tomoyuki Sugano.

Pepiot has a 1.64 ERA in his last six starts. The Rays are 6-1 when he's been a road favorite this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 career innings against Baltimore.

Pepiot is backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

Soft-tossing Sugano came to the majors this season after many years in Japan. The league has figured him out. Sugano has a 6.39 ERA with a 2.28 WHIP in his last three starts, spanning only 12 2/3 innings. He has yet to complete five innings during any of his last three starts. The Orioles are vulnerable in middle relief.

Big total here, but it's completely justified. 

The Dodgers are first in many major offensive categories, including runs, homers, RBI's and OPS. They get to face Austin Gomber, a terrible pitcher with an 8.38 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season. This is just Gomber's third start, but his ERA the previous three years is 4.75, 5.50 and 5.56. 
LA is averaging 10 runs in its last three games. 

Clayton Kershaw draws the start for LA. I'm surprised the Dodgers want him to even pitch at Coors Field, which has been the worst ballpark he's pitched at. Kershaw has a 4.64 ERA in 27 career starts at Coors Field - and that was when he was in his prime. The ERA balloons to 7.11 when pitching a day game at Coors. This will be his ninth day-game start at Colorado.

The Rockies hit much better at Coors. They rank ninth in home slugging percentage and 11th in home batting average.

When pitching at Oracle Park, Logan Webb might be the best pitcher in baseball. He has a 1.35 ERA this season pitching there this season and has a career home mark of a 2.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 76 starts.

Webb is backed by a San Francisco bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors by a wide margin at 2.63.

The Marlins rank 23rd in runs and 27th in homers.

The Marlins should do their part to keep this total Under as they will be starting Edward Cabrera. He's been dominant in his last five starts with a 1.46 ERA giving up four earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during that stretch. The Giants couldn't score against Cabrera when they last faced him on May 31 getting blanked for 5 2/3 innings.

Cabrera is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Giants.

San Francisco is 19th in runs and ranks 24th in homers, batting average and OPS.

Already having to bat in the best pitcher's park in the league, Royals and Padres hitters also are going to have to deal with a rare late afternoon start at San Diego's Petco Park. Game time is 4 p.m. West Coast time. That means batters also have to adjust and deal with shadows and twilight.

So this sets up as a real pitcher's duel with two good starters and both bullpens having ERA's among the seven best in baseball.

Lefty Noah Cameron will be making his eighth start of the season. He has been what the Royals were hoping they would get out of Cole Ragans this season. Cameron has been absolutely magnificent with a 1.91 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The Padres have a below average offense. They also rank 23rd in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Dylan Cease will be on the hill for San Diego. He's having a down year, but his strikeouts are still there: 105 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings.  

Cease doesn't have a high bar here. The Royals rank 29th in runs and homers.

This low total would make sense if Logan Gilbert was back to his ace form, not rusty, and the Red Sox were pitching Pedro Martinez instead of Lucas Giolito. That's not the case here.

Giolito can come up with a rare gem once in a while that keeps him in the rotation. Mostly, though, he's bad with the season statistics to back that up - 5.45 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and a 1.4 home run allowance per nine innings. Boston is one of the worst fielding teams in baseball, too.

Led by Cal Raleigh, the No. 2 home run hitter in the majors with 26, Seattle ranks seventh in homers and 12th in runs. The Mariners just scored a combined 17 runs in their last three games, at home, against the respected pitching of the Guardians.

Gilbert has a Cy Young-type ceiling. But he's been hurt. This will be his first big league appearance since April 25. So not only could he be rusty, but also figures to be on a pitch count. The Red Sox are the fifth-highest scoring team in the majors.

White Sox starter Shane Smith is due for regression. He's backed by a bad bullpen that lacks a closer and is facing a Houston offense that is averaging nearly 5 runs a game during its last four games.

Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. is on the comeback trail from missing the previous two seasons due to serious injuries. McCullers has shown strikeout potential, but he has serious command issues. He's been terrible at home in three starts with a  10.13 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

The White Sox's offense has become more respectable with the return to health of several of their veteran hitters and the call-up of elite prospect Kyle Teel.

Lefty Carlos Rodon is pitching well. But he suddenly hasn't turned into the reincarnation of Sandy Koufax. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are starting Hunter Dobbins, who has a 4.50 road ERA.

Given the offenses of these two teams, I find this total to be too low.

Boston is averaging 7.2 runs in its last five games. The Red Sox rank fifth in OPS and sixth in runs and batting average. The Red Sox also hold the highest batting average against southpaws at .275. They are sixth in slugging percentage versus lefties.

The Yankees remain without a trusted closer with Luke Weaver out.

The Red Sox starting rotation takes a huge dip once you get past Garrett Crochet. Dobbins is their fifth starter. The Yankees should mash him and bad Boston middle relief. The Yankees are No. 1 in homers and OPS. They rank third in batting average and runs. New York is averaging 6.6 runs in its last three games.

Bad timing for Paul Blackburn. The 31-year-old, eight-year veteran has been sidelined all season with a knee injury. But he's set to make his season debut on the road against the Dodgers Monday.

Good luck.

Not only do the Dodgers have the best offense in baseball ranking first in many key categories, including runs, batting average, homers and OPS, but they are in a bad mood after getting blasted by the Yankees last night on national TV during the Sunday night ESPN game.

Blackburn is far from a stud. He had a combined 4.66 ERA last season pitching for the A's and Mets. His ERA was 5.18 with New York. He has a career mark of 22-28 with a 4.85 ERA.

Dodgers starter Dustin May hasn't exactly been elite either this season. He holds a losing record and 4.20 ERA. May has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. He's been tagged for 24 earned runs in his last seven starts spanning 38 2/3 innings.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games. Their offense is above average. The Dodgers' bullpen is below average with a 4.02 ERA.

Yes, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field. But only slightly. Certainly not enough to cause such a low total in a pitching matchup of Nick Martinez versus Jameson Taillon.

Martinez is pitching better than I expected with a 3.48 ERA, but he doesn't miss many bats with only 45 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. He's facing a Cubs offense that ranks in the top-four in many major offensive categories, including runs (second), batting average (second, OPS (third) and homers (fourth).

I'm even less sold on Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has a 3.86 ERA, bad metrics, is homer-prone and also doesn't get many strikeouts with 51 in 63 innings.

The Reds rank 10th in runs. If you discount a 2-0 loss to the Cubs on Saturday, the Reds are averaging six runs per game during their last seven games.

Neither bullpen is elite.

Don't let Charlie Morton ruin your Memorial Day. Fade him and take the Cardinals. The price is low enough to get the superior team with the better starting pitcher.

St. Louis is 30-23. Baltimore is 18-34. One reason for the Orioles' horrible season is Morton. Baltimore is 0-10 in his starts. Morton isn't exactly pitching in bad luck either with a 7.86 ERA and 1.76 ratio. Talk about a waste of $15 million. The Orioles certainly could have spent that money better than getting a washed-up 41-year-old.

Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Erick Fedde remains solid with a 3.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's giving up 0.8 home runs per nine innings compared to Morton, who has surrendered nine homers in 41 innings for an average of two per nine innings. Fedde is 2-0 this month with a 2.55 ERA.

Fresh from shockingly sweeping a three-game series against the Dodgers, the Angels' bats should stay hot getting to play the A's at minor league Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The Angels scored 23 runs against the Dodgers in the three games. 

Now the Angels draw JT Ginn, who hasn't pitched since April 24. Ginn has a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He's been tagged for 2.6 homers per nine innings. The A's bullpen has been a disaster this month with an 8.31 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. 

The A's are happy to return to their temporary Sacramento home where they haven't been for the past eight days. The A's have an above average offense. They draw Jose Soriano, who has a 3.46 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. 

Soriano also has a 13.50 ERA and 2.12 WHIP in four career appearances versus the A's, including two starts. Soriano can expect no help from an Angels' bullpen that has a 10.32 ERA and 2.12 ratio during the past 15 games and is the worst in the league. 

Sutter Health Park is proving to be one of the best hitting parks in baseball, if not the entire American League. The Over has cashed in five of the last six games there.

The Braves are coming on winning nine of their last 14 games. They hold a strong pitching edge here with Spencer Schwellenbach going against Brayan Bello.

Schwellenbach is an elite pitcher. He has a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Schwellenbach's ratio is even better in day games at 0.99.

Bello's 2.33 ERA is deceiving. He has a 1.41 WHIP and an expected ERA of above 5.00. Unlike Schwellenbach, Bello doesn't pitch well during the day with a 1.64 WHIP.

Boston is 1-4 in its last five games, surrendering an average of eight runs during this span.

Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. A sure-fire Hall of Famer. But Kershaw's time is past. He's 37 and coming off a 2024 season where he had a 4.50 ERA and a career-low in strikeouts per nine innings.

Yet Kershaw has not retired. He's set to make his first start since last August. I don't expect him to pitch too long, or too effectively.

The Dodgers should provide plenty of run support. They are either first or second in the majors in nearly every big offensive category, including runs, batting average and homers.

Angels starter Tyler Anderson is 3-7 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.65 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 16 career appearances, including one relief outing. Anderson's 2.58 ERA is due for regression as he's giving up 1.4 homers per nine innings. He had a 3.81 ERA last year and a 5.43 ERA in 2023.

The Angels' bullpen has the highest ERA in the majors and recently lost setup man Ben Joyce for the season with a shoulder injury.

Returning home after a season-long 10-game road trip, the Dodgers were ambushed by the A's, 11-1, on Tuesday night.

Situational handicapping isn't nearly so strong in baseball as in other sports, but I have to believe the Dodgers will be serious about this game after having their pride stung. LA is 15-4 at home.

LA has its best pitcher going, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He might be the best pitcher in the entire National League. Yamamoto has a 1.80 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Yet Yamamoto also had his pride pricked during his last start. It came against the Diamondbacks in a loss last Thursday when he gave up five runs in five innings, easily his worst outing of the season.

Rookie Gunnar Hoglund is set to make his third big league start for the A's. He is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA. Hoglund has pitched well, but is stepping way up having accomplished those numbers versus the Marlins and Mariners. The Dodgers are first in the majors in batting average, second in homers and OPS and fourth in runs. Hoglund is not considered to be an elite prospect.

The A's bullpen has not been good, especially during the last 10 days where their ERA is 8.24. The Dodgers' bullpen, by contrast, has a 3.57 ERA during this time frame.

Sometimes the simplest handicaps can be the best. I find that to be the case here in a pitching matchup of Max Fried versus Bryan Woo. 

Fried is the best pitcher in baseball right now with the lowest ERA at 1.05, tied for the most wins with six and he has a 0.91 WHIP. Fried hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight starts! 

Woo is a decent pitcher who becomes very good when pitching at home where he has a lifetime ERA of 2.62 in 19 starts. Woo has only allowed two earned runs in two home starts this season spanning 13 innings. 

There is reason for Woo's strong home showings as Seattle's T-Mobile Park is the premier pitcher's park in the American League if not all of baseball.

There aren't going to be many times when I go against the Dodgers. But this is one of those rare instances. The price is right to back the improving Braves in a pitching matchup of rookie Roki Sasaki versus Spencer Schwellenbach.

Sasaki has tremendous upside. But he's learning to pitch in the majors right now. He's 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He has only 20 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings.

The Braves have started playing better winning nine of their last 13 games. They can do well facing a pitcher, who doesn't miss a lot of bats.

The biggest factor, though, why I like Atlanta here is Spencer Schwellenbach. He has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. If he's not elite, he's close to it. If the Dodgers have a vulnerability, it's going against excellent right-handed pitchers.

Houston's offense is down from past seasons. The Astros had scored just three runs in three games before producing seven runs against the Royals on Sunday. 

Now the Astros face Jack Flaherty, one of the better right-handers in the American League. Flaherty is off to another strong start with a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Astros rank 22nd in batting average against right-handed pitchers. 

The Tigers have improved their offense, but still have below average power and rank second-to-last in stolen bases. They are going with Ronel Blanco, who flashed last season and has pitched better than his statistics show this season.

The kicker here are the bullpens. Detroit and Houston have the two lowest bullpen ERA's in the majors.

The Phillies are only one game above .500. Blame that disappointing record on Aaron Nola. He stinks.

Nola has gone from a near-ace to one of the worst starters in the league. He's 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA. Nola has surrendered eight homers in 29 innings giving him a career-worst rate of 1.9 homers per nine innings. He also has been walking too many batters.

There isn't much wind forecast for today's game. However, Nola faces a Cubs offense that leads the majors in runs per game at 6.1. Chicago also is sixth in homers and ranks No. 2 in batting average, OPS and steals. The Cubs are 17-11.

Chicago is pitching Jameson Taillon, who has a 4.73 ERA but a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Taillon was rocked by the Diamondbacks in his first start. He has settled down giving up eight runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. Taillon has had at least six strikeouts in three of those four starts.

Framber Valdez is a two-time All-Star, who is rounding into his All-Star form. Valdez held the Padres to two runs in six innings during his last start six days ago. Now he draws the weak-hitting Royals.

Kansas City is last in the majors in homers and second-from-the-bottom in runs and OPS. The Royals' best player, Bobby Witt, is 1-for-12 lifetime against Valdez.

Josh Hader, the Astros' dominant closer, is rested. I see Valdez and Hader, if needed, dominating the Royals' weak offense.

Kansas City is starting Michael Wacha, who is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Current Houston batters are 10-for-24 against Wacha with six extra base hits.

Given the starting pitching matchup, it shouldn't be asking too much for each of these teams to produce at least four runs. 

Toronto starter Jose Berrios is off to a bad start with a 5.02 ERA and 1.43 ratio. He usually pitches worse on the road, too. The Yankees are No. 2 in the majors in runs, homers and OPS.

The Blue Jays have allowed an average of 6.2 runs in their last five games. 

Toronto's offense has been disappointing, but the Blue Jays could break out facing washed-up Carolos Carrasco, who has a 6.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Patrick Corbin pitching at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, Calif., with the wind blowing out is a huge plus for the Over.

Corbin has been the worst starter in the majors for the previous five years. He led the league in hits allowed in 2020. He led the league in losses, earned runs and homers in 20201. He led the league in losses, hits allowed and earned runs in 2022. In 2023, he had the most losses in the league. Last year, Corbin gave up the most hits and earned runs.

Surprisingly, Corbin pitched well in his last start. That was last Wednesday when he held the Angels to one run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings. Even with that performance, Corbin still has a 3.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this year.

I don't see Corbin coming up with a second consecutive quality start. The A's rank in the top-eight in homers and OPS. The A's offense should be better and their defense worse with the Monday call-up of Nick Kurtz, a highly-rated, top power-hitting minor league prospect.

The Rangers should do their share of damage as they drop down in pitching class after being held to seven runs in three games against the Dodgers. Texas had scored 19 runs against the Rockies during their previous three-game series. The Rangers have star outfielder Wyatt Langford back in their lineup.

Oakland starter Osvaldo Bido has looked good. But he does have a 1.45 WHIP and three of his four starts came against weak-hitting teams - White Sox, Mariners and Rockies. Bido faced the Rangers once last year and was tagged for four earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

The A's bullpen has been bad aside from closer Mason Miller with a 4.65 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Not only is Sacramento's minor league Sutter Health Park proving to be good for hitters, but the weather forecast is for winds to be blowing out at eight mph.

The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the home Blue Jays. The price is low enough to get involved with Toronto.

Toronto has a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. Seattle, meanwhile, had to go through its bullpen again going extra innings to defeat the Reds in Cincinnati on Thursday. Both teams' have excellent closers. But Seattle's Andres Munoz may be unavailable having pitched the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches.

I favor the Blue Jay's in the starting pitcher matchup, too, of Bryan Woo versus Bowden Francis. Woo is much better when he throws at his pitcher-friendly home park. Woo gave up four earned runs in six innings to the Giants in his first and only road start this season. He has never pitched at Toronto. The Blue Jays are 7-3 at home.

Francis is a strong home park pitcher. He's 5-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at  Rogers Centre.

Not only have the Guardians been playing better than the Orioles, but they have a vastly superior starting pitching going here.

Tanner Bibee isn't elite, but he isn't far away. I have him as a "B" tier pitcher with the chance to rise to "A" level status this season. Bibee is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors.

I'm not nearly as high on Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano, a soft-tosser who only has five strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Guardians are 6-2 in their last eight games despite losing to Baltimore on Wednesday. The Orioles are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

I can sum up my handicap to the Angels in two words: Patrick Corbin. He's making his second start for the Rangers.

I don't understand why Texas signed Corbin. Since 2020, Corbin's won-lost record is 33-70. His ERA the previous four seasons is 5.62, 5.20, 6.31 and 5.82. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season after giving up three earned runs on five hits, including a homer, and two walks in four innings against the Cubs during his first start this year.

The Angels are 9-7. They appear improved. They rank 10th in runs and have hit the third-most homers.

Texas is 2-5 in its past seven games. The Rangers are 28th in runs. They are facing Jose Soriano, who I consider the Angels' best pitcher. Soriano is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first three starts. Lifetime against the Rangers, Soriano is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games.

The Dodgers are not going to take kindly to suffering the biggest home shutoff loss in franchise history, 16-0, to the Cubs on Saturday. The Dodgers have a patsy, too, to take their frustration out on - Colin Rea. He's a reliever who is going to get the start here because Justin Steele is out with an elbow injury.

Rea is facing an LA squad that leads the majors in homers.

The Cubs are leading the majors in runs. They also are third in OPS and fourth in homers.

Tyler Glasnow draws the start for the Dodgers. He's off to a slow start with a 6.43 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his first two starts.

I respect Seattle being a strong pitcher's park. But I find this total too low given the pitching matchup. 

Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has some intrigue. But he's an unpolished, work-in-progress rookie. I'm a little surprised he's in the starting rotation. He may not be too much longer as he has a 7.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in two starts spanning eight innings. He's given up two homers already. 
Texas' bullpen is untrustworthy, too. 

Bryan Woo is Seattle's No. 4 starter when George Kirby is healthy. Woo is one of the better fourth starters in the league, but he's not a big strikeout pitcher. 

Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien are healthy and due for bounce back seasons. Corey Seager and Josh Jung are healthy, too. Jake Burger and Joc Pederson have been added to the Rangers lineup. That's a lot of power.

Until the oddsmaker catches on that Sutter Health Park, the minor league stadium in Sacramento where the A's are playing their home games, is more like Coors Field than just an above average hitter's park, I'm going to fire Over on Oakland home games.

The A's have played four games this season at Sutter Health Park. All four have gone Over with at least nine runs being scored in each game. The average runs per game there is above 13.

The A's are an underrated hitting team that was held back by previously playing at the Oakland Coliseum, which was a strong pitcher's stadium. The Padres have the second-highest batting average in the majors. Their offense has been held back by playing at Petco Park, perhaps the premier pitching park in the majors.

San Diego starter Dylan Cease had a 3.83 road ERA compared to a 3.03 home ERA last season.

A's starter Jeffrey Springs has not been sharp in two starts this season with a 4.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

The Mets' Tylor Megill is an emerging pitcher. Toronto's Kevin Gausman is on the decline. The Mets are the superior team and at home. So I believe the price is more than fair to back New York.

The Blue Jays are off to a 5-2 start. Keep in mind, though, four of those victories were achieved against the Nationals. All of Toronto's games have been at home, too, until now.

Megill opened the season beating Houston, 3-1, this past Friday. He has a 1.80 ERA following that game. Toronto's hitters are batting only .206 against Megill in a combined 34 at bats.

The Mets hold a bullpen advantage on Toronto, too. New York relievers have a 1.64 ERA compared to Toronto's bullpen ERA of 5.47.

New York is averaging six runs a game during its past three games.

The Diamondbacks got past the Yankees, 7-5, on Tuesday in their first road game of the season. But the combination of going from the west coach to the east coast and a pitching matchup of Zach Gallen versus lefty Carlos Rodon is going to catch up to the Diamondbacks today.

Gallen did not look good on his opening day start against the Cubs allowing four runs in four innings permitting four hits and four walks. That was at home where he historically pitches much better.

Now Gallen faces the Yankees with their torpedo bats. New York has scored 41 runs in four games. 

Rodon, contrary to Gallen, was sharp in his first start. He held the Brewers to one run in 5 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. 

Arizona had a losing record against southpaws last season and are 1-2 against them this season.

Sense of urgency. Home field. Superior starting pitcher. Fair line price. Those are my reasons for liking the Yankees to beat the Dodgers in Game 3 down 0-2 in the World Series.

The Yankees could have won both of the first two games. They were within one out of winning Game 1 and had their chance in the ninth inning of Game 2. 

I'd really like the Yankees' chances if Aaron Boone got lost and didn't make the game. Joking aside and ignoring Boone's terrible overmanaging, everything sets up for New York in this Game 3 spot. 

Besides a sense of urgency and getting to play at home for the first time in the series, the Yankees hold a huge starting pitching edge with a matchup of Walker Buehler vs. Clark Schmidt. 

Buehler hasn't overcome his serious arm injury history. He was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. He's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in the postseason. Buehler is forced to pitch on the edges with his fastball no longer effective. Playing the Yankees is a bad match for him because New York hitters are patient and know how to take a walk. 

Schmidt had a fine season posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

I don't expect Blake Treinen to pitch unless it's a save situation for LA. Treinen threw a total of 55 pitches during Friday and Saturday's games. 

Getting out of New York was the best thing to happen to the Guardians. With their season on the verge of elimination, I see the Guardians winning this Game 3 with the scene shifting to Cleveland.

It was like the Guardians were psyched out playing at Yankee Stadium. They left 11 men on base and committed two errors, one on an infield pop-up, in a 6-3 Game 2 loss this past Tuesday. 

Being idle on Wednesday and now home at Progressive Field for Thursday's game, is huge for Cleveland. I doubt the fat-and-happy Yankees, up 2-0 in the series, can match the Guardians' intensity and home motivation. 

I rate Cleveland with the pitching edge, too, in a starting pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. savvy veteran Matthew Boyd. 

The 33-year-old Boyd had a 2.72 ERA in 40 innings. He's well-rested. Cleveland rates a bullpen edge, too, and it has its top relievers rested. Emmanuel Clase led American League relief pitchers in saves with 47. 

It says a lot about how thin the Dodgers' starting pitching is that Walker Buehler draws another playoff start. He was hammered by the Padres in Game 3 of LA's earlier playoff series giving up six runs on seven hits in five innings.

This result isn't surprising since Buehler isn't close to being the dominant pitcher he was following two elbow surgeries and a hip injury. Buehler had a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. His road ERA was even worse at 6.88.

This is a stark contrast to how well Mets starter Luis Severino has pitched at home. Severino has a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this season.

The Dodgers' bullpen brings no fear to the Mets, who are averaging 5.5 runs at home in the postseason.

I don't trust either starting pitcher - Alex Cobb, or Carlos Rodon - and Cleveland's bullpen carries a high fatigue rating despite being idle on Sunday.

Cobb has thrown only 22 1/3 innings this season. The veteran is far from his prime. Cobb last pitched against the Tigers in the playoffs five days ago. He threw 41 pitches in three innings giving up two earned runs on three hits. Now he's facing a Yankees team that led the majors in homers and finished third in runs. Cleveland's top four relievers have thrown a combined 185 pitches in its last two games. 

Rodon wasn't sharp in his playoff start, giving up four runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Royals a week ago. The Guardians are averaging 6 runs in their last two games.  

Jazz Chisholm is a great talent. But he might not be the smartest player around. He said the Royals got lucky after Kansas City beat the Yankees this past Monday night to even this playoff series at 1-1.

Just added motivation for the Royals, who are playing in their first postseason home game since 2015.

I like the Royals at this price being home and in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. Seth Lugo.

Schmidt will be making his first playoff appearance of the season. He does not have a good postseason track record with an 0-2 record and 11.75 ERA in three appearances during the 2022 playoffs. The Royals are better offensively when playing at home.

Lugo had an All-Star season. He has a 1.42 ERA in four playoff appearances spanning 6 1/3 innings. Lugo was 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season. He stymied the Yankees when he faced them on Sept. 10 pitching seven scoreless innings giving up just three hits with 10 strikeouts. Aaron Judge and Chisholm are a combined 1-for-19 against Lugo.

This comes down to not trusting Aaron Nola on the road, nor having faith in the Phillies bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA since July 1.

Nola has a 3.79 road ERA compared to 3.29 at home this season. This is similar to his career mark of a 4.21 away ERA compared to 3.21 ERA at home. Nola can't expect to get bailed out by a Phillies bullpen that has surrendered 12 earned runs in six innings during this series.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their five playoff games.

New York is pitching Sean Manaea. The Mets are 15-4 in Manaea's last 19 starts.

After playing 27 innings on opposite coasts in slightly more than 24 hours, the Braves have run out of gas. They didn't have anything in a 4-0 loss to the Padres on Tuesday in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta's starting pitcher on Tuesday, didn't find out he was going to start until Tuesday morning. The Braves are without Chris Sale, who is out with back spasms. That can't do much for their morale and confidence.

The pitching matchup for today's Game 2 is lefty Max Fried vs. Joe Musgrove.  

Fried has not been good in the playoffs. He has a 2-4 record and 4.57 ERA in 19 postseason appearances. San Diego went 27-19 against southpaw starters.

Musgrove is in great form. He has a 0.98 ERA in his last three starts, surrendering only two earned runs in 18 1/3 innings with a 23-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.

Three days and counting for the Nationals. That's when their dreadful season will be finished. The Nationals are not exactly going out in style. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. Washington is averaging a puny 1.6 runs in its last six games.

The Phillies have motivation trailing the Dodgers by one game for the No. 1 seed in the National League. Philadelphia is 25 games better than the Nationals.

So I see this as a kill spot for the Phillies. The oddsmaker does, too. So to reduce the heavy juice, I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Of the Nationals' last 13 losses, 10 have come by more than one run.

The Phillies rank fourth in runs and batting average. They are averaging 5.9 runs in their last seven games.

Ranger Suarez has been a dependable starter for Philadelphia with a 12-7 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Washington's Trevor Williams has been injured for two months. This will be only his second start since July 25. He's a journeyman who has pitched for four teams since 2020. Williams has had an ERA above 5.00 in two of the past three years.

If there ever was a situation to back Oakland this is it. It's the final game for the A's in the Oakland Coliseum where they have played since 1968. They are going to be playing in Sacramento for the next three years before moving to Las Vegas.

The game is a sell-out. It will be emotional. The A's have to have incentive. The Rangers certainly don't. The defending champions are playing the string out in what has been a highly-disappointing season. Texas is 6-9 in its last 15 games. The Rangers are giving up an average of 5.4 runs in their last five games.

The pitching matchup pits a pair of rookies - Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and J.T. Ginn, who has a 3.20 home ERA. Rocker has thrown just seven innings in the big leagues.

The A's hold a bullpen edge. The Rangers have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball.

It was a great night for Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers Thursday night in Miami. Ohtani smacked three homers and stole two bases, thus becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. The Dodgers clinched a playoff spot with a 20-4 massacre of the Marlins.

Now the Dodgers play again - in Los Angeles. That means an early-morning cross country flight to take on a lowly opponent, the Rockies.

Colorado was idle Thursday. So the Rockies already were in LA ahead of the Dodgers - rested and ready. Colorado is 5-2 in its last seven games.

The Rockies will be pitching Kyle Freeland, who is in good form. Freeland has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Dodgers haven't announced their starting pitcher. He's not likely to be good since Jack Flaherty pitched last night and injuries have robbed the Dodgers of many of their former excellent starters. It probably will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.

The Yankees smacked the Mariners, 11-2, in Seattle last night. I don't expect them to win tonight, though, in a pitching matchup of lefty Nester Cortes vs. Bryce Miller.

Cortes is 9-10 with a 3.90 ERA. That ERA climbs to 4.81 on the road. He's in danger of losing his spot in the Yankees' starting rotation. 

Miller is 11-8 with a 3.12 ERA. He's an excellent fit in Seattle's pitcher-friendly stadium with a 6-3 record and 1.99 ERA. Miller has allowed only seven earned runs during his last seven starts spanning 40 2/3 innings. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame. Miller has given up one earned run with 11 strikeouts during his last two starts combined. 

Seattle is very strong at home with a 45-31 record at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners don't have a high batting average against southpaws, but they are 22-19 against lefty starters.

The Mariners are extremely tough at home as evidenced by a 41-28 record. George Kirby is Seattle's best pitcher - when he pitches in Seattle. That's the case here. Kirby, who has masterful control, has a 2.94 home ERA.

The Padres have a losing record in their last 11 games. They are starting Yu Darvish, who is trying to work his way back from a groin strain suffered in late May. This is only his second start since May 29. Darvish allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Tigers in his first start since then last Wednesday.

Darvish also wasn't sharp in his only minor league rehab appearance giving up six runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds minor leaguers. Darvish is 38 so his comeback has not been easy.

Offense has been a problem for Seattle. But if you discount a 2-0 loss to the Cardinals, the Mariners are swinging hot bats averaging 9.5 runs in their last four games.

The A's are better offensively than perceived. They are averaging 5.7 runs in their last nine games.

Seattle is pitching Luis Castillo. That's good when the Mariners are home. Not good when they are away like here. Castillo is 4-7 with a 4.35 road ERA.

The Mariners should do their part to get this total Over facing J.T. Ginn, a rookie who has pitched only 3 2/3 innings and has a 5.19 ERA. The A's bullpen has shown slippage after trading Lucas Erceg and with closer Mason Miller hitting the wall of late.

Seattle's weak offense has picked up with Julio Rodriguez healthy again and returning to his star form. The Mariners are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games.

If you're not up on Osvaldo Bido you should be. Bido has been an underdog in each of his last four starts. The A's have won each of those games in large part because of Bido's tremendous pitching. Bido has a 1.17 ERA during his past four starts.

Now, once again, Bido is an underdog. This time at home to the Mariners and Logan Gilbert.

I'm not turning down this opportunity to ride the Bido's plus-price train.

Gilbert has a losing record on the season at 7-10. So do the Mariners when playing on the road where they are 28-40. Gilbert is a T-Mobile Park pitcher with a 2.35 home ERA. That ERA rises to 3.81 on the road. Gilbert also has a 4.76 ERA in his past three starts.

Oakland has shown an underrated resilience going 17-5 the past 22 times following a loss. They are averaging 5.8 runs in their last eight games.

The Mariners have scored 4 or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. They have the lowest team batting average in the majors, while also ranking 29th in OPS and 26th in runs.

Hot bats, mediocre starters, vulnerable bullpens and a fair number. That's enough for me to go Over in this Blue Jays-Red Sox game.

The pitching matchup pits innings-eater Chris Bassitt against Brayan Bello, one of the more overrated pitchers.

Bassitt is 9-12 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He's showing signs of wearing down with a 7.27 ERA in his last five starts.

Bello is 11-6 but that record is highly deceiving. He has a higher ERA than Bassitt at 4.95 and a 1.43 WHIP. Bello has a 7.53 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays.

Both teams have been huge Over teams. The Blue Jays have gone Over 69 percent of the time during their last 54 games, while the Red Sox have gone Over 74 percent of the time during their last 35 games.

Paul Skenes has a 3.13 ERA in his last five starts after compiling a 1.90 ERA during his first 11 big league starts. His fastball has ticked down a little. But Skenes is still a dominant pitcher. Opponents are batting .198 against him. He has a 121-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only five teams strikeout more than the Reds.

I remain fully confident in Skenes.

Pittsburgh is average against lefty pitching. That's enough for the Pirates' offense to do the job against southpaw Nick Lodolo. He's faded badly after returning from an injured list stint last month. Lodolo has a 7.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP during his last eight starts spanning 40 2/3 innings.

The oddsmaker opened this game higher. So I'm glad to get a discount with the lay price going down.

If they didn't know it already, the Astros are going to learn fast that their recently acquired starter, Yusei Kikuchi, gives up a lot of homers. Kikuchi has allowed an average of 25.6 home runs during the past three seasons. He's on pace again this season, having surrendered 19 homers.

During his past 11 starts, Kikuchi has a 6.23 ERA, allowing an average of two home runs per nine innings.

The Over is 19-6-1 (76%) in Boston's last 26 games. Only five teams have hit more homers this year than the Red Sox. The Red Sox also lead the American League in runs per game at 6.1 since the All-Star break.

The Astros average nearly five runs per game when playing home. They're going against Tanner Houck, who has tailed off with a 4.98 ERA in his last eight starts. The Red Sox's bullpen has the fifth-highest ERA and highest ERA since July.

It's an added bonus if Alex Bregman is able to play after missing the past three games because of an elbow injury.

Both teams are swinging hot bats. The Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers even better at 6.3 runs in their past 10 games. Milwaukee draws Gavin Stone here. Stone has regressed with a 6.29 ERA in his last five starts. Brewers starter Colin Rea has been pitching above his capability. He's due to regress. Having Mookie Betts back in the lineup is another plus for the Dodgers.

The sampling isn't huge. But it's certainly enough to believe each team should be good for at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of Bowden Francis against Davis Daniel.

Francis has a 5.44 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings this season. Daniels has a 6.04 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings this year.

The bullpens are well below par, too. The Blue Jays have the second-worst bullpen ERA at 5.03 while the Angels are 23rd with a 4.25 ERA.

So I'm not going to overthink this. I'm just going Over.

I'm not turning down Taj Bradley as an underdog.

Bradley wasn't sharp in his last start giving up four runs in five innings to the Marlins. Prior to that, however, there wasn't a better pitcher in the American League. Bradley had given up two earned runs or fewer during his previous nine starts, holding foes to one run or fewer in eight those outings. 

The Cardinals have never faced Bradley. That's not to their advantage. Bradley is off a July where he went 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA in five starts. 

I like Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. But he's not in Bradley's class. Fedde is 7-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He made his St. Louis debut this past Friday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. It did not go well for him. Fedde surrendered five earned runs in five innings, including two homers. 

The Orioles get all the major checkmarks here - offense, starting pitching and bullpen. The question comes to price. And I'm fine laying this mid-range number on Baltimore in a pitching matchup of Grayson Rodriguez vs Chris Bassitt.

Rodriguez isn't far away from ace status. He's 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. The Orioles bolstered their bullpen at the trade deadline while Toronto relief pitchers remain vulnerable.

Chris Bassitt is a mediocre 8-10 with a 4.02 ERA. Toronto is 2-8 in his last 10 starts. Bassitt has a 4.24 ERA at home.

The Orioles are third in runs, first in homers and fifth in batting average. Toronto is 24th in runs, 27th in homers and 18th in batting average.

The record shows the Twins to be 62-48. But they aren't nearly that good. They've feasted on four bad teams going 28-8 when playing the White Sox, A's, Angels and Tigers.

If you removed those 36 games, Minnesota would be 34-40 on the season, six games below .500.

The Cubs are four games below .500. They have won four of their last five games.

So I'm not buying the Twins opening as a road favorite against the Cubs in a pitching matchup of rookie David Festa against Kyle Hendrick.

Festa has pitched 19 1/3 innings. He has a 6.98 ERA. Festa has surrendered a whopping six homers in his 19 1/3 innings.

Hendricks is a tough sell, too, with a 6.86 ERA. But he's pitched better at Wrigley Field and he might avoid facing two of the Twins' four best hitters. Carlos Correa remains out and Byron Buxton is questionable.

The Mets may not score 15 runs like they did against the Twins on Monday night. But they just might cover the Over by themselves facing rookie pitcher David Festa and with the wind blowing out to left field at 14-to-17 miles per hour.

New York is averaging more than five runs a game when playing at night. Festa is considered by some to be Minnesota's top pitching prospect. But he hasn't shown he's ready for the big league during his three appearances this season. He's thrown 14 1/3 innings and been roughed up for 13 runs and five homers. Only three teams have homered more than the Mets this year.

The Twins should contribute their part to the Over going against lefty Sean Manaea, who is in bad form with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins are batting a league-best .276 against lefties. They also rank third in slugging percentage and fourth in OPS when facing southpaw pitching.

The Pirates struggle at Chase Field. They are 2-10 in their last dozen games there against the Diamondbacks.

Now Pittsburgh goes against Brandon Pfaadt, one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League. Pfaadt has made three starts since the All-Star break spanning 17 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's given up only one run and 11 hits. He has a 3.09 home ERA.

Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Pirates. The lefty is working his way into shape after coming back from injury. He's allowed three runs and 13 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings. He is several tiers below Pfaadt. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-nine against southpaws in several major hitting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

When we last saw the Rockies they were scoring 20 runs. That was this past Wednesday at Coors Field.

Now the Rockies travel to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to take on the Giants. Colorado's offense is way down from past seasons. It's been dreadful on the road ranking 28th in batting average and fourth from the bottom in OPS and on-base percentage.

This should make things easier for Giants starter Kyle Harrison, who has a 2.97 night ERA. Harrison has held his last two opponents to just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings.

The Rockies are going with Kyle Freeland, who has been tremendous in six starts since coming off the 60-day injured list with a 1.95 ERA. Colorado has a rested bullpen, too.

The Giants have a mediocre offense at best. They are 23rd in homers. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in seven of its past nine games.

The good news for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera is back from having spent two months on the injured list. The bad news is Cabrera has been terrible since his return. He's made three starts this month and has a 7.71 ERA.

The Orioles have an elite offense ranking first in homers and second in runs and OPS.

The Marlins are just the opposite. They have the fewest homers and are second-to-last in runs and OPS.

So this is an excellent spot for Orioles' rookie Chayce McDermott to make his big league debut. McDermott is backed by rested closer Craig Kimbrel and rested set-up man Yennier Cano.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They have their ace, Zack Wheeler, going today in a bounce back spot after the Twins won the first game of this series, 7-2, last night.

The Twins are 11 games above .500. But they are not an elite team. That's been proven whenever they've played top opponents. Minnesota is 2-19 against the Orioles, Guardians, Dodgers, Yankees and Brewers. The Phillies certainly are in that class.

Minnesota has padded its record by going 20-7 against the White Sox, A's and Tigers.

Philadelphia is 63-47 and has the second-best run differential in the majors at plus 107 runs.

Wheeler is having another huge season going 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson can't compare to him.
The Twins also are without their three leading hitters with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda all sidelined.

Tuesday Free Play

Rockies plus $1.43 hosting Red Sox 

I cashed with the underdog Rockies on Monday and am coming back with them as big home underdogs again today as a free play.

Boston is going through a low period having gone 0-4 since All-Star break.

This is an action play for me as I don't care for Colorado starter Ty Blach, who is 3-5 with a 5.46 ERA. Boston starter Cooper Criswell is struggling, too, with a 1-3 record and 6.94 ERA in his last five starts. He's never pitched at Coors Field.

A major problem for the Red Sox is their bullpen. It's minus closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Chris Martin. Those are Boston's two best relief pitchers. The Red Sox relief staff is terrible without those two. That was proven in last night's Rockies', 9-8, 12-inning victory when Boston's bullpen couldn't protect leads in the 10th and 12th innings.

Colorado is 9-9 in its last 18 games. The Rockies are 23-28 at home compared to 14-36 on the road. The Rockies also are riding a streak of having homered in 10 consecutive games.

So I find value in taking the Rockies at this price, against a cold Red Sox team going with a struggling starter and messed-up bullpen.

Coming off a high-profile three-game road series against the Dodgers that culminated with a loss on national television last night, the Red Sox face a tough situational spot meeting the Rockies at Coors Field.

Nothing against Red Sox starter Tanner Houck, who has pitched well this season, but this game does not set up well for Boston. Houck has yet to experience Coors Field having never pitched against the Rockies during his five-year big league career.

Houck won't be able to count on Boston's two best relief pitchers. Closer Kenley Jansen won't pitch during this series and setup man Chris Martin is on the injured list.

The key question is are the Rockies good enough to take advantage of this spot and upset Boston? Yes. Their starter, Austin Gomber, has pitched well at Coors and Colorado's confidence is up after taking two of three at home from the Giants this past weekend. The Rockies held the Giants to three runs in each of the three games.

The Rockies are a respectable 8-9 in their last 17 games. They play much better at home. The Rockies are riding a streak of having homered in nine consecutive games. Gomber has a 3.54 ERA at home compared to 5.61 on the road.

There haven't been more than eight runs scored in a game during the first two games of this series with both games going Under. I don't see that changing in this Sunday matchup where backups often get to start and the pitching matchup is Drew Thorpe vs All-Star Seth Lugo.

Thorpe is a rookie with a high ceiling. This will be his seventh big league start. He's only given up five earned runs during his past four starts spanning 24 1/3 innings. He's gone six innings in each of those last four starts.

Lugo is 11-4 with a 2.48 ERA. He should be able to tame a White Sox offense that is the worst in baseball. The White Sox are last in runs and OPS. They rank 29th in batting average and 28th in homers.

Note, too, the wind will be blowing in at between 7-to-8 miles per hour.

A pair of young, promising lefties go here, Nick Lodolo for the Reds and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals.

The oddsmaker had it wrong in opening Gore and the Nationals as the favorite.

Lodolo has had a couple of starts to get the rust off since coming back from injury. He is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA when pitching on the road. The Nationals are 29th in slugging percentage against lefty pitching. They've failed to hit a single home run the past 15 games when going against a southpaw.

Gore has tailed off. His velocity has been down and it's shown in his last four starts. Here are Gore's numbers during his past starts: 15 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings on 19 hits and 12 walks.

No reason to overthink this one. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are healthy again and are 14 games better than the Pirates. The pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs lefty Martin Perez is heavily in Philadelphia's favor, too.

So I'm fine laying this price.

Nola is having another consistent, strong season. He's 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during 10 of his last 11 starts.

Now look at journeyman Perez. He's 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.62 ratio. That ERA goes up even higher to 6.75 going by his past three starts. The Phillies rank in the top 8 in major hitting categories against lefties, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Strong teams have a history of coming out of the All-Star break in winning fashion. Favorites went 11-4 (73 percent) in the first game following break last season.

The Giants are a sound 27-22 at home. They have a strong pitching matchup edge here and they catch the Twins with Minnesota possibly missing three of its best hitters.

Carlos Correa is batting .308 and is Minnesota's home run and RBI leader. He didn't play Saturday because of a bruised heel. Jose Miranda leads the Twins in hitting at .325. He's missed the past two games due to a sore back. Byron Buxton is batting .285. He didn't play yesterday either after crashing into the wall on Friday trying to make a catch.

Since this is the final day before the four-day All-Star break, it's likely all three of these key offensive cogs sit out. All three are right-handed batters, too.

That's an extra plus for lefty Blake Snell. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has made just two starts since early June because of a sore groin. Snell hadn't looked good this year - until his last start. That came against the Blue Jays at home this past Tuesday. Snell finally looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self, throwing five innings of shutout ball holding Toronto to only one hit.

Opposing Snell is Chris Paddack, who has a 5.18 ERA. Paddack's already bad ERA shoots up to 7.50 if you go by his past three starts. Paddack's road ERA this season is 7.25.

The 44-49 Cubs, with their below average offense and defense, are trying to do what hasn't been done this season: Beat the 57-35 Orioles three straight in Baltimore. The Orioles haven't lost three in a row at Camden Yards all season.

The Cubs, though, have captured the first two games of this three-game series. Chicago's record is 4-10-1 in road series.

Anything is possible in baseball, but I don't see a Cubs sweep. The price is low enough to back Baltimore big in a pitching matchup of lefty Justin Steele against Albert Suarez.

Steele is off his first complete game. So he's in unknown territory for this start. He faces a potent Baltimore lineup that ranks first in the majors in several categories, including runs and homers. The Orioles rank No. 2 in slugging percentage and No. 3 in OPS against lefties.

Suarez is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Suarez has a 1.50 home ERA. He's allowed only one run during his last three home starts against the Rangers, Braves and Rays.

Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have been terrible. One major reason for this is their reluctance to cut ties with highly overpaid lefty Patrick Corbin. This is the fourth consecutive year Corbin has been horrible with a 1-8 record and 5.49 ERA.

Corbin's ERA the previous three seasons were 5.20, 6.31 and 5.82.

The Mets rank fourth in the majors in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS when facing lefty pitching.

The Nationals hit better against right-handers and they face a struggling one in Luis Severino, who is in bad form giving up 11 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. During this time frame, Severino has allowed 17 hits and three walks. He has a 6.04 ERA during his last four starts. The Nationals have the 12th-highest batting average vs righties.

There's more, though, than just two struggling starting pitchers.

The weather forecast is for strong winds blowing out to center and Carlos Torres expected to be the home plate umpire. Torres has a history of being tough on pitchers. The Over has cashed 57 percent of the time in Torres' 150 games behind the plate.

The Giants finally get to step down in class taking on the Blue Jays after having just played nine games against the Guardians, Braves and Dodgers.

San Francisco has the superior offense. The underachieving Blue Jays rank 26th in runs and 28th in home runs.

The Blue Jays are pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.12 ERA, backed by a Toronto bullpen minus its two top relievers.

Fresh off the injured list and supposedly healthy, Blake Snell gets the call for the Giants. Snell's season numbers of a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP are due for much improvement as career-wise Snell has a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Twice Snell has won the Cy Young Award, accomplishing in both the AL and NL.

Snell has a 2.74 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in 14 career starts.

Soft-tossing 35-year-old Miles Mikolas wasn't very good last year for the Cardinals with a 9-13 record and 4.78 ERA. He's worse this season with a 6-7 record and 5.19 ERA.

Mikolas isn't in good form either with an 8.27 ERA during his last three starts. Note this is a day game. Mikolas ERA in day games is 5.73.

I much prefer Washington's promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker. He's 5-4 with a 3.61 ERA. Parker has pitched his best at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA. The Nationals have won four of Parker's five home starts.

Washington is averaging 7.6 runs during the first three games of this series.

The Cardinals are batting only .229 against lefty pitching. They rank second-to-last against lefties in batting and slugging percentage.

The Over has cashed in seven of the Dodgers' last eight games. I fully expect this game to go Over, too.

Lefty Dallas Keuchel is starting for Milwaukee. Need I say more?

The Brewers recently exhumed Keuchel, who has been washed-up for the last three years. This will be his third start of the year. No surprise that his ERA is 6.75 and his WHIP is 1.61.

The Dodgers are averaging 6.3 runs in their last seven games. They rank in the top-three in runs, OPS and homers. They've bashed seven home runs during the first two games of this series. Oh, yes, the Dodgers also murder left-handed pitching, ranking first in slugging percentage and are third in batting average vs southpaws.

The Brewers should do their part toward making this game go Over. Milwaukee ranks sixth in batting average and 10th in runs. The Brewers have been amazingly consistent producing at least three runs in 16 consecutive games.

This is an action play for me as the Dodgers are expected to call up Justin Wrobleski to make his major league debut. So this could turn into a bullpen game for LA. Wrobleski made just two appearances in Triple-A. This could be a rush job. Doubtful he's ready for the big leagues. The Dodgers are turning to Wrobleski because Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are all injured.

The Rays have won their last five series. But if they want to keep that series streak going they need to win this game after losing, 3-0, to the Rangers on Friday night.

I see the Rays accomplishing the task in a pitching matchup of Taj Bradley against southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Bradley has a high ceiling and is in tremendous form with a 1.24 ERA in his last five starts spanning 29 innings. He has 40 strikeouts during this time frame.

Texas has a below average offense. The Rangers are averaging 2.6 runs during their last three games. They are eight games below .500

The Rays are 14-7 vs lefty starters and going against a mediocre one in Heaney, who is 0-5 lifetime against Tampa Bay.

Paul Skenes has a 2.06 ERA. I haven't heard of a Pirates starter with an ERA that low since Vic Willis and he pitched at the turn of the century - the 20th century.

Unlike many other heralded rookies, Skenes is more than living up to the hype. He just might be the best pitcher in baseball.

Skenes has given up only three earned runs during his last four starts spanning 25 1/3 innings. He has 32 strikeouts during this span and 70 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

The Pirates are 6-3 in Skenes' starts. The Mets just were held to zero runs and one hit by the Nationals on Thursday.

The Mets have the highest payroll in baseball. The Pirates have the second-lowest payroll in the majors. Despite that, the Pirates have just one fewer victory than the Mets.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets. He's having a good bounce back season, but is not the star pitcher he was with the Yankees. Severino's road ERA is 4.19 and he has a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts. The beleaguered Mets' bullpen remains without suspended closer Edwin Diaz.

The Astros are coming on having won 10 of their last 12 games. The Blue Jays are an underachieving seven games below .500, with an overrated offense, their two best relievers on the injured list and a bad manager.

I like Houston to bounce back here in a big way after losing by one run to Toronto on Tuesday.

Not only are the Astros the superior and hotter team, but they have a major pitching edge in a matchup of Ronel Blanco against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

Blanco is having a big year with an 8-3 record and 2.49 ERA. He is 5-1 on the road with a 2.36 ERA. The Blue Jays faced Blanco the first time the teams met back at the beginning of April. Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in a 10-0 victory.

Kikuchi is in terrible form. He is 0-3 with a 10.64 ERA during his past three starts. The Astros have the sixth-highest batting average against southpaw pitchers.

There were 15 runs scored in Colorado's, 8-7, win against Milwaukee on Monday. I expect at least a dozen runs in Tuesday's game with even a worse pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel vs Ryan Feltner.

Yes, you read right. Dallas Keuchel. Just when you thought he finally was out of baseball, he returned last Wednesday to make his season debut. Of course, Keuchel got smacked giving up five runs on eight hits in four innings against the Rangers.

It would be easy to fade Keuchel except Colorado is pitching Feltner, who has five quality outings in 16 starts giving up 103 hits in 86 2/3 innings. Feltner has a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

The Brewers entered this week ranked fifth in batting average and seventh in runs scored. They've scored at least six runs in five of their last eight games. Feltner's ERA at Coors Field is 7.43 this season.

Quietly the Blue Jays have gone Over in their last seven games while averaging 7.1 runs in their last six games if you discount Sunday's one-run performance against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees.

The Astros have their offense cranking, too, averaging 7.2 runs during their past nine games. Houston is in line to do plenty of damage again facing rookie Yariel Rodriguez, who is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.92 WHIP.

Rodriguez may give way early to a Toronto bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA and is minus its two best relief pitchers, injured Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia.

Houston starter Hunter Brown is pitching well. Brown, though, has a 5.87 road ERA.

Two above average offenses that are hot facing mediocre-to-bad starting pitchers at hitter-friendly Fenway Park should produce double-digit runs. 

San Diego is averaging 6.6 runs in its last eight games. The Padres draw Nick Pivetta, who can be good but usually is bad. Pivetta has a 4.06 ERA in 11 starts. That ERA goes up to 4.62 in five home starts. San Diego ranks eighth in homers. Pivetta has been tagged for four homers during his past two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. 

Pivetta is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA in five career appearances vs the Padres, including three starts. 

Boston has scored four or more runs in 11 of its last 13 games. The Red Sox are averaging 5.9 runs during their last 13 games. They get Randy Vasquez, who is 2-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 10 starts this year. 

Vasquez has pitched worse away from pitcher-friend Petco Park with a 6.85 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in five away starts.

We know who Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is. A mediocre journeyman, who has pitched for five different teams since 2019.

But just who is Reynaldo Lopez? This year Lopez has pitched like a superstar with a 5-2 record and 1.57 ERA. Atlanta is 7-3 in his starts this season. Lopez has been brilliant in his last four starts - all Braves victories - giving up three earned runs during this time spanning 23 innings with 29 strikeouts.

These pitchers were scheduled to face each other on Tuesday, but the game was postponed until today as part of a double-header. This is the first game of that doubleheader. So the game has to be re-bet.

The rainout on Tuesday has not changed what I think about this game.

St. Louis has been playing well, although its previous six series all were against below .500 opponents. But the Braves are clearly the superior team with a better offense, a bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA and a defense that has committed the fewest errors in baseball.

The Braves should be able to reach Gibson, who has a 4.28 home ERA, and a St. Louis bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.

The Cardinals are playing better, winning eight of their past 11 games. They've also played six opponents with losing records during their last six series.

That won't be the case here against the 43-32 Braves. Atlanta is without superstar Ronald Acuna. But the Cardinals are likely to be without Wilson Contreras and possibly Nolan Arenado, who is dealing with left forearm nerve irritation.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They impressively took two of three road games from the Yankees, who have the second-best record in baseball.

Atlanta rookie starter Spencer Schwellenbach is in better form than St. Louis veteran starter Lance Lynn. Schwellenbach has allowed three runs on seven hits during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. St. Louis has never faced him giving Schwellenbach a surprise element.

I prefer a young promising Atlanta pitcher instead of Lynn, who has been nothing more than a glorified innings eater for the past several years. Lynn has a losing record this season with a 4.08 ERA. He has a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Lynn gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the weak-hitting Marlins during his previous start six days ago. Lifetime against the Braves, Lynn has a 4.34 ERA in eight starts.

This is a kill spot for the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Tommy Henry vs Zach Wheeler.

The Diamondbacks irked the Phillies edging them, 5-4, Friday night. But Arizona lost Gabriel Moreno (thumb) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (elbow) to injuries in that game. Both of those players had homered in the game.

Henry has a 6.23 ERA. This will be his first start since April 29. He gave up five runs on five hits in four innings of relief against the weak-hitting White Sox during his last appearance, which was a week ago. Henry has an 8.79 career ERA against the Phillies in three previous starts. Philadelphia has a top-five offense.

Wheeler isn't going to lack motivation after he allowed a career-high four homers and eight runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles this past Sunday. He had an eight-game win streak entering that game. Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA lifetime against Arizona in 11 career regular season starts. He went 2-0 vs the Diamondbacks with a 1.84 ERA in three postseason games last year.

Southpaw Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the White Sox with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, which is No. 2 in the majors.

I certainly have nothing against Crochet, although I'm leery that he can continue at a pace this good. But I am going to fade the White Sox at this low of a lay price with a hot Hunter Brown and a prideful Astros team that is off an embarrassing, 2-0, loss to the White Sox and rookie Jonathan Cannon.

Houston still is trying to turn its season around. But no team is worse than the White Sox, who are 20-54.

Only once since mid-May have the White Sox won two straight games.

The Astros rank in the top-12 in the major offensive categories against lefty pitching. They expect to get back slugger Yordan Alvarez after he missed Tuesday's game because of a family matter. Alvarez is batting .365 this month with 15 RBI's.

Crochet is coming off his second-highest pitch count of the season. The White Sox have to be careful with him since he's had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. Only once this season has Crochet gone more than six innings. The White Sox bullpen ranks 27th in ERA.

Brown is riding a 13-inning scoreless streak. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader to close if needed. The White Sox rank last in runs, batting average and OPS.

When it comes to the Pirates, I won't go against Paul Skenes and I have great respect for the backend of their bullpen. Other than that, though, the Pirates are fair game. I'm going against them today in a pitching matchup of Nick Lodolo vs Bailey Falter.

The Reds are 8-2 in Lodolo's starts this season. Lodolo has a 2.93 ERA. He's been even better on the road with a 2.55 ERA. Lodolo has surrendered just six earned runs during his past four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings.

Falter is not in good form giving up eight runs and 16 hits in his past two starts spanning eight innings. Pittsburgh is 3-7 in Falter's starts this year.

Falter has a career 7.79 ERA against the Reds in five games, including three starts.

A healthy Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Glasnow is healthy and pitching in a day game. He's 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in day games this season.

The Dodgers are 43-28. That's to be expected. The Royals have been a major surprise with a 40-31 record. But regression is starting to hit the Royals. Even after their upset victory against the Dodgers on Saturday night, they still are 2-5 in their last seven games.

The Royals opened this series with their two best pitchers, Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. Now, though, they are dropping way down in class going with Brady Singer. He's going against an LA offense that ranks in the top-four in many major offensive categories.

The Royals aren't likely to have their star catcher Salvador Perez either. He's been out with knee inflammation.

DJ Herz has one thing going for him as he faces the Marlins at home in his third big league start. Herz is a lefty.

The Marlins are a terrible team - especially when facing southpaws. Miami is 3-21 against lefty starters this season.

I expect Herz and a rested Washington bullpen to handle the Marlins. Miami is batting .223 vs lefties. The Marlins are second-to-last in the league in runs, homers and OPS.

Oh, yes, the Marlins also are averaging a puny 2.2 runs during their past 11 games.

You can't have a single digit total here in a pitching matchup of lefties Jose Suarez against Jordan Montgomery.

Not only do the Angels and Diamondbacks have excellent offensive numbers against southpaws, but Suarez and Montgomery are terrible.

Suarez has a 6.54 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Apparently the Angels are so desperate for starting pitching help that Suarez is going to make his first start of the season here. The Diamondbacks have the majors' second-highest batting average and fourth-best slugging percentage vs southpaws.

Montgomery has been a major free agent bust, regressing terribly this season. He has a 6.80 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Montgomery has been mind blowing bad in his last two starts giving up 14 runs on 17 hits in six-plus innings against the Mets and Giants. Opponents are batting .323 against him.

The Angels are second in slugging percentage and fourth in batting average when going against lefty pitching.

Both bullpens are well par, too. The Angels have the third-highest bullpen ERA, while the Diamondbacks rank 23rd in bullpen ERA.

San Diego's Matt Waldron is that pitching rarity - a knuckleballer. He's also a hot pitcher with a 1.47 ERA during his last three starts. Waldron, a righty, hasn't permitted more than two earned runs a game during his past five starts. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 against righthanders in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson is in good form, too, with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts. Nelson has been much more effective on the road than at home. Before breaking through with 10 runs on Friday night, the Padres had been averaging just 2.2 runs in their last five games.

Note, too, the venue and scheduled home plate umpire, Tripp Gibson. Petco Park is the premier pitching park in the league. Gibson is a good Under umpire. The Under has cashed 56 percent of the time during his last 139 games behind the plate.

The Padres are averaging 2.2 runs in their last five games. San Diego's offense is better than that. The Padres lead the majors in batting average and get to face Brandon Pfaadt at home. Michael King opposes Pfaadt.

These two pitchers went against each other at Arizona on May 4. The Padres won, 13-1. King threw six shutout innings giving up six hits while not walking a batter. King is in excellent form with a 2.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pfaadt was tagged for five runs, three of which were earned, in six innings during that May 4th loss. He has a 4.32 ERA on the season, which balloons to 4.71 in his seven road starts.

They are not big-names, but Tylor Megill and emerging star MacKenzie Gore are having below-the-radar excellent seasons.

The Mets' Megill has returned from injury to post a 1.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three starts. He's coming off seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers, who rank sixth in runs, third in homers and fourth in batting average. The Nationals, by contrast, are 24th in runs, 24th in batting average and 27th in homers.

Gore has a 2.91 ERA. He's been outstanding during his past seven starts giving up two earned runs or fewer in each of those outings. Gore has an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his past two starts.

The Mets have a below average offense.

Even though the Cardinals have been playing a little better, they are still a below .500 team. The Phillies have the best record in baseball at 41-18. Philadelphia also has won eight consecutive home games.

So, why such a low lay price on the home Phillies?

Why, indeed. Puzzles me. But I'm happy to lay what I consider a short number to back the far superior team.

Perhaps it's the pitching matchup of veteran Lance Lynn with a 3.45 ERA going against a disappointing Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.51 ERA.

Lynn, though, is well past his prime. He's surrendered four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He hasn't gone more than six innings during any of these outings.

Walker is 30-12 during the past three seasons. He's due to pitch better. He's also backed by the better bullpen.

The Phillies lead the majors in runs scored, while the Cardinals rank 26th. So Lynn has the far more difficult task.

Reynaldo Lopez recorded a season-high eight strikeouts in the Braves', 4-2, home win against the A's on Friday. That doesn't bode well for Oakland in today's game because now the A's draw lefty Chris Sale.

Sale has returned to his pre-injury superstar status with an 8-1 record, 2.12 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 10 starts. Sale's 78 strikeouts rank 10th in the majors. He's had eight or more strikeouts during his last five starts. The White Sox rank 29th in batting vs southpaws hitting just .211.

Oakland has scored three or fewer runs in six of its last seven games. The A's rank third-from-the-bottom in runs. The A's also are without injured Lucas Erceg, one of the more underrated setup pitchers in the league.

The Braves should do plenty of damage against Aaron Brooks, who is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA and is due for regression. Brooks has had ERA's of 7.71, 5.65 and 6.67 during the last three years he has pitched in the majors. His lifetime ERA is 6.29 with a 1.51 WHIP.

Stephen Nover Monday Free Play

Reds minus $1.31 hosting Cardinals

These teams have been going in opposite directions. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in its last 16 games. Boston is 5-11 in its last 16 games. The Rays are now ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East standings because of this current form.

Some teams hate playing at Tropicana Field because of its turf and unconventional design. The Red Sox are one of those teams. Boston is 2-15 the past two seasons playing the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Part of the Red Sox problem is injuries to three key hitters: Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas are all out.

The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck against Taj Bradley.

Bradley is a young pitcher with a high ceiling. Since returning from injury, he's made two starts. He has a 2.45 ERA. Houck has an impressive 2.17 ERA. However, he's 3-5 and threw a career-high 112 pitches in 5 2/3 innings during a 4-3 home loss to the Rays this past Wednesday.

The Phillies are 28-13. That's the best record in baseball. They've won 13 of their last 16 games. The Mets are below .500 with a mediocre offense. The Phillies have a far better offense and the superior starting pitcher going.

So I find this a low lay price to back the Phillies.

The pitching matchup is Cristopher Sanchez vs Sean Manaea.

Sanchez has allowed just one earned in four of his past five starts. He faces a Mets offense that is 15th in runs, 19th in batting average and 14th in homers.

Manaea has a 4.30 home ERA. He goes against a Phillies attack that ranks second in runs, third in batting average and fifth in home runs.

I want Justin Verlander and a rested Josh Hader going for me in this matchup. Verlander had his first poor performance of the season in his last start. He'll be highly motivated going against his long-time former team.  Verlander still is a well above average pitcher who rates a strong edge on comeback-minded Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.26 home ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-10 offense. The Astros finally have begun playing better. They have a winning record in their last dozen games. 

Kansas City's Michael Wacha has made two good starts this season. Both came against the White Sox, the worst offensive team in baseball. His other five starts haven't been good, particularly his last two. Those were against the Tigers and Rangers. Wacha gave up 11 earned runs and 18 hits in 9 2/3 innings against those two teams.

I don't believe Wacha should be a road favorite against the Angels. The Royals carry a high bullpen fatigue rating, too. Closer James McArthur has thrown 33 pitches during the past two days.

Angels lefty Reid Detmers was dynamite during his first four starts with a 3-0 mark and 1.19 ERA. He's struggled during his last three starts. But I believe he's turned the corner and has become a solid pitcher.

The Angels aren't good, but they are not as bad as some perceive. Before their series against the Pirates, the Angels had played a brutal schedule going against the Guardians, Phillies, Twins and Orioles.

The Rockies are averaging two runs a game during their last four games. Their offense is far worse away from Coors Field. The Pirates have a bottom-five offense. They are averaging a puny 1.5 runs during their past eight games.

Seeing that Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire cements this Under play. The Under has cashed at 58 percent during the last five years when Eddings has been behind the plate. He's extremely pitcher-friendly with his strike zone.

This should be of help to the Rockies' Ryan Feltner, who shut out the Marlins for eight plus innings in his last start before faltering in the ninth inning.

Pirates starter Bailey Falter had a tremendous April allowing only four runs in four starts.

Slade Cecconi has been a nice early story for the Diamondbacks. There were at least seven Arizona starters rated ahead of Cecconi at the start of the season. But injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have opened a spot in the rotation and Cecconi has taken advantage - so far.

Cecconi pitched 27 innings for Arizona in his major league debut last season and had a 4.33 ERA, while giving up four homers. He's made two starts this season, both on the road in pitcher's parks, going six innings each against the Giants and Mariners. He has a 2.25 ERA.

But now hitter's have more of a book on Cecconi. He's also pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field and facing the best offense he's seen. The Padres have the third-highest road batting average at .274. They rank ninth on the road in slugging percentage and third in on-base percentage when away from Petco Park.

Oh, yes, the Padres also have their best pitcher going here, Dylan Cease. He has been sharp in five of his six starts this season posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. Cease has held five of his six opponents to two earned runs, or fewer.

The Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their past seven games. They are averaging two runs per game during this time frame.

The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game.

Giants starter Logan Webb hasn't been scored upon in his last 19 innings. He's a proven elite pitcher. Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't. He has a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings this season, but can't be counted on to go deep into the game. I'm not sold on the Red Sox's bullpen, particularly middle relief. Key setup man Chris Martin has a 5.56 ERA.