40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies laying just a field goal at home against the Tigers. I just think there's a huge home field edge here for Texas A&M and that's only magnified by this being a prime time game under the lights at Kyle Field. Not to mention the line really says it all here with the No. 7 ranked team in the country listed as a dog. 

The Aggies only home loss this season came at the hands of Clemson in a crushing 28-26 defeat. I think there's a lot of motivation for this team to finish strong and really build on what's been a positive first year under Jimbo Fisher. I just don't know that this game means as much for LSU, who really has nothing to play for at 9-2. 

The even bigger factor here for me is the matchup. LSU is very limited offensively and really need to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field. That's not going to be easy against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 2nd in the nation against the run, giving up just 80.8 yards/game. It's no fluke, as they held Clemson to 115 yards, Alabama to 109, Benny Snell and Kentucky to 70 and Auburn a few weeks back to just 19. 

As far as the Aggies offense is concerned, they have faced a bunch of elite defenses and been able to put points on the board. I just don't see LSU being able to keep pace. Give me Texas A&M -3! 

50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats in this clash with in-state rival Louisville. I played against Kentucky in that first game after the devastating loss to Georgia and they to no surprise lost the game outright. Just a really horrible spot for a team going from playing for a spot in their conference title game to just having to finish out the season. They slopped it up against last week against Middle Tennessee, but I think we are going to see Kentucky revert back to that early season form against the Cardinals. 

If you check the quotes of these Kentucky players, they haven't forgot about that ugly 44-17 defeat Louisville put on them last year. Star running back Benn Snell was quoted saying "I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from last year" 

I just don't know what makes anyone think Louisville is going to magically figure this out. You typically see teams play well and with a lot of fight in the first game after their head coach was fired. Louisville went out and lost at home to a pretty average NC State by 42 points. With how atrocious the Cardinals are defensively and how dominant Kentucky is on the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats should have zero problem turning this into a blowout and covering the spread. Give me Kentucky -16.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD UNDERDOG SHOCKER (UNC +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Tar Heels as 7.5-point home dog against the Wolfpack. I just think this number is a reflection of NC State coming into this game at 7-3 and UNC being at 2-8. I just don't think there's that big a gap between these two teams right now, as this line suggest NC State would be more than a double-digit favorite on a neutral site. 

This was just a tough year for the Tar Heels, who had all those suspensions early on and a bunch of really tough losses. I just think that while they are a 2-win team on paper, they are closer to a 6-win team in terms of talent and honesty I think this should be closer to a pick'em. NC State has been overvalued since their 5-0 start and we saw some of that in a 4-point loss at home to WaKe Forest as a 18.5-point favorite. 

You also have to factor in the motivation here for UNC. They have lost the last two in the series and there's some rumblings that a loss here might cost head coach Larry Fedora his job. Add in this being senior night and this team needing some kind of motivation going into next year and I really like the home dog win this one outright. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (S Florida +14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than two touchdowns at home. As hard as it is to bet against the Knights, I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying on the road. 

I know USF is coming into this game not exactly playing well, but there are some positives mixed in their 4-game losing streak. They only trailed Houston by 7-points going into the 4th quarter of what turned out to be 21-point loss. They were only outgained by 2-yards in a shocking 41-15 loss at home to Tulane and had 2nd half leads in their last two defeats to Cincinnati and Temple. While the schedule was easy, you don’t go 7-0 without some decent talent and one of those wins was against a Georgia Tech team that is sitting at 7-4 (5-3 ACC).

No question this one was going to mean something a little more after losing that big game to UCF last year, but there’s that much more incentive for USF to lay it all on the line with the Knights perfect record on the line. No better revenge for the Bulls than snapping Central Florida’s 23-game winning streak.

I also think it’s pretty clear that the only way you are competing with the Knights is if you put points on the scoreboard. I think USF is definitely capable of doing that. They come in averaging 31.2 ppg and 458 ypg. I also think it’s worth looking back to an earlier road game for UCF at Memphis, where they were only a 4.5-point favorite. Not only did the Tigers cover as a mere 4.5-point dog, they should have won the game (led 30-14).

The fact USF is a 14.5-point home dog, says the Tigers would be a 10-point favorite over the Bulls on a neutral field. No way is that legit. I think it’s a clear indication of how inflated this line is. The most important thing to remember is you aren’t betting who will win, all we need is for South Florida to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Bulls +14.5!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina +19.5)

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Virginia -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia putting an end to the losing streak against their in-state rivals and covering this small number on the road. The Cavaliers haven't beat the Hokies since they won 35-21 at home way back in 2003. Virginia Tech has won 14 straight, but this is not your typical Hokies team. 

This season took a turn for the worse when starting quarterback Josh Jackson went down, then things really got ugly when the injuries started to pile up on a young and inexperienced defense. It's that Hokies defense that makes me extremely confident the Cavaliers can go into Blacksburg and get the win. 

Virginia Tech is giving up 40.3 ppg and 463 ypg (7.4 yards/play) over their last 3 games. They just gave up 38 points to a Miami team that was having all kinds of problems scoring. Virginia has scored at least 27 in 4 of their last 5 and I think they have no problem eclipsing 30 here (Hokies allowing 36 ppg at home). 

While the Cavaliers are piling on the points, I look for the Virginia Tech offense to have a hard time keeping pace against a very talented Virginia defense that is holding their opponents a touchdown below their scoring average on the season. Give me the Cavaliers -4.5! 

40* NCAAF EGG BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Miss St -12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Rebels on Thanksgiving. I'm sure a lot of people will be quick to point out the fact that the last two years the outright winner has been a double-digit dog. However, I think that trends comes to an end, as I see this getting out of hand. Mississippi State will be out for revenge and any thoughts of this team throwing in the towel after that loss at Alabama, were thrown out the window in last week's 52-6 win against Arkansas. For me, I just think this Bulldogs defense is one of the best in the country and will be able to shutdown this Ole Miss offense. On the flip side of this, I think the Mississippi State offense is starting to come alive and should be able to move the ball at will against this awful Rebels defense. Give me the Bulldogs -12.5! 

50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5! 

40* CHIEFS/RAMS MNF ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs +3) 

I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.

They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 45 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.

While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.

I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.

I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9) 

I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon.

I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC.

Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot.

New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)

I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.

I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.

I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.

I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.

There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.

Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1!

50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3) 

I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.

Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.

I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and  look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.

It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.

The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.

With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!

50* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Syracuse +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Orange as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I really like what Dino Babers has done at Syracuse and I just don't think the experts give this team enough respect. They want to discredit them for their lack of quality wins. Their best win is probably a home victory against NC State. With that said, they had Clemson on the ropes and that was with Lawrence under center. They only lost by 4-points on the road. Their other loss is a mere 7-point loss at Pitt the very next week after that heartbreaking loss to the Tigers. While these are two ranked teams, all the pressure is on Notre Dame, who needs just a win here and a win at USC to lock up a spot in the playoffs. Syracuse has nothing to lose and everything to gain, as this would be another huge win for this program. I just think they got the talent to slow that Notre Dame offense down, which hasn't exactly had continuity at the quarterback position of late. I'm willing to be the offense does enough to keep this within single-digits and maybe even win outright. Give me Syracuse +10.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR  (Colorado +7.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Minnesota -2.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK (Baylor +1) 

I'll take my chances here with Baylor at basically a pick'em at home against TCU. I think the only thing keeping the Bears from being a bigger favorite, is the fact that TCU comes in at 4-6 and would need to win their final two games to make a bowl. This team has won 11 or more 3 of the last 4 years, fighting for a meaningless bowl game isn't that important to them. Not to mention, they have shown absolutely nothing on the field to make you believe they are going to turn things around. Baylor is in just year two under Matt Rhule and won just one game all of last year. Getting back to a bowl would mean a lot for this program and I expect this team to lay it all on the line. That should be more than enough for them to secure a win on their home field. Give me Baylor +1! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4) 

While the Owls do still need 1-more win to get bowl eligible, they got a home game against Charlotte on deck to secure it. I’m not saying they aren’t going to show for this game, I just don’t think they will be as motivated for this contest as North Texas.

This is a bit of a revenge game for the Mean Green, as FAU defeated them in last year’s C-USA Championship Game. In fact, the Owls handed North Texas their only two losses in conference play all of last year. Florida Atlantic outscored the Mean Green 110-48 in those two games.

I would be shocked if a team that returned 52 lettermen and 17 starters didn’t have this game circled as soon as the schedule was released. It might also have a little bit to do with their 2nd half collapse last week against Old Dominion. Not to mention the extra hype that comes with a weekday game and this being senior night (last home game). I expect them to give everything thing they got left in the tank for this one and I just don’t see the Owls matching that intensity.

Not to mention I think North Texas is the better team here. The Mean Green could very easily be sitting at 10-0 right now. They are outscoring teams 40.4 to 18.4 at home this season and FAU is getting outscored 26.0 to 37.8 on the road.

I think we are getting value not only from what happened last year in this series, but the Owls having covered 2 straight and North Texas having only covered 1 of their last 6. Give me the Mean Green -4!

40* NCAAF TUES NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (Ball State +7.5) 

I just think the value is with the Cardinals at this price. Both teams will be without their starting quarterback. Western Michigan’s Jon Wassink is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and Ball State’s Riley Neal is out with a knee injury. I just think Wassink’s injury really levels the playing field in this one.

Prior to getting hurt, Wassink had basically completed 62% of his attempts for 2,000 yards with a 16-6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 162 yards and was second on the team with 6 rushing touchdowns. Backup Kaleb Eleby filled in nicely for Wassink against Toledo, but was just 10 of 19 for 152 yards with 2 picks last week vs Ohio.

I know there’s still hope of winning the MAC East, but I just think the life was kind sucked out of this team when Wassink went down. I’m banking on the Cardinals to show up for this one. I think backup Drew Plitt surprised people with how well he played in place of Neal against Toledo, throwing for 340 yards. While they lost the game by 32-points, they were within 100 total yards of the Rockets. This is also senior night for Ball State, so the effort should be there

I just think this one should be closer to a pick’em given the circumstances, which is why I would have to grab the touchdown and the hook with the home side. Give me the Cardinals +7.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.

The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.

He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.

Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get  the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.

The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!

40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)

I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.

I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.

I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.

I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.

Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.

I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.

I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!

40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.

I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.

I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).

I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins.  Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.

More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5! 

50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).

There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.

Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.

The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.

I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.

I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.

If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Tennessee +6 ) 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miss St +24.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs at this price in this spot. Even the elite teams like Alabama are vulnerable to letdowns. I just think watching how excited Nick Saban and Alabama were with that win over LSU, that was a massive game to them and it should have been. That win locked up the SEC West and put Alabama in a tremendous position to make the CFB Playoff (yet again). 

I think the biggest takeaway for me with the LSU game was how the Tigers defense was able to at least slow down the Crimson Tide offense. I think Mississippi State has every bit as good a defense, if not better, than the Tigers. If they can hold Alabama to under 30 points, I'm willing to bet they cover this massive spread and even if the Crimson Tide score 30+, I think the defense is going to give up a few more big plays in this one and the backdoor cover will be wide open if needed. Give me the Bulldogs +24.5

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Pitt -3 ) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Panthers winning at home against the Hokies. Pittsburgh leads the ACC Coastal at 4-1 and with a win here they would move dangerously close to securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game, as the only team without 3 conference losses would be Virginia and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

I just think there's teams that the public struggles to buy into, regardless of what the record or numbers suggest. I believe Pitt is one of those teams, as they might have been the last team people picked to win this division and we have seen them lose badly to the likes of Penn State (51-6) and UCF (45-14).

Teams do improve over the course of a season and since that loss to the Knights, the Panthers only defeat is a 5-point setback at Notre Dame and they had a 14-6 halftime lead against the Irish. 

Virginia Tech is also no where close to on the same level as that Penn State team early in the year and UCF. The Hokies have quite the brand name and I think some of that is playing into this low number. 

This is not the same Virginia Tech team that started the year as a Coastal contender. They lost starting quarterback Josh Jackson and have had all kinds of injuries on a defense that was extremely young and inexperienced to begin with. 

In the Hokies last 4 games they have allowed 167 rushing yards to Notre Dame, 235 to North Carolina, 465 to Georgia Tech and 219 to BC. Pitt has the No. 20 ranked rushing attack in the country at 230.8 ypg. Add in home field and there's no way the Panthers shouldn't be a bigger favorite here. Give me Pittsburgh -3! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UNC as 10.5-point dog. I can't believe we are getting 10 points + the hook, as I think this game is a complete toss up. Duke might be the better overall team and the records definitely suggest that, but keep in mind that the Tar Heels had a bunch of players suspended early and that really messed with the chemistry of this team. 

I know they come into this game having lost 5 in a row, with each of the last two coming by double-digits. The thing is, if you look back at the last 4 games during this stretch, UNC was in a great position to win every one of those games. I expect them to keep fighting until they break through and end this losing streak and you know they would love nothing more than to celebrate a win on their rivals home field. 

Duke just went on the road and beat Miami as a 9-point dog, but that Hurricane's team is in a bad place as they struggle to realize they aren't as good as they thought coming into the season. Regardless of what state the Hurricanes were/are in, that was a big win for the Blue Devils, as they don't celebrate many wins at Miami. Could be really hard for them to shake off that big win and give UNC their full attention with a much bigger game against Clemson on deck. Note that Duke is pretty much out of the ACC Coastal race and already bowl eligible at 6-3. Give me the Tar Heels +10.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Missouri -16) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Missouri to win by at least 17 at home against the Commodores. The Tigers might have the same 1-4 record as Vandy in SEC play, but there's no doubt Missouri is the better team. 

While both teams are getting outgained in SEC play, Missouri is only -55.8, where the Commodores are -149.6 ypg. Note that the Tigers have played Alabama and Vandy has not. If you just look at the 4 common opponents these two teams have played. Missouri has outgained these teams by 18.3 ypc and outscored them by 1.0 ppg. Vandy has been outgained by 185.7 and outscored by 17.0 ppg. 

Drew Lock and that Missouri offense have had their way with bad defenses. The only teams to keep them in check are Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama. They have scored at least 35 on every other team and that includes 38 last week at Florida. Vandy has allowed 35+ points in 4 of their last 6 and one of the exceptions is Tennessee State, who had 27. 

Missouri's defense is more than good enough to keep the Commodores from scoring enough to keep this within the number, especially at home. Give me the Tigers -16! 

50* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC GAME OF THE MONTH (Fresno St -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Broncos. The fact that Boise State only comes into this game with one more loss than Fresno and are a home dog in a prime time game, tells you all you need to know. This Bulldogs team is the real deal and have one of the best defenses in the country that few know about. We saw Boise State managed just 13 points against a good San Diego State team in a 6-point home loss to the Aztecs (Broncos were favored by 13). I just don't see Boise being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Note that Broncos are now without leading tackler in linebacker Riley Whimpey, who tore his ACL in their last game against BYU. Add in revenge from last year's MWC title game and this could get ugly. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5! 

40* WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (N Illinois -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Huskies as a small home favorite. Northern Illinois has won 5 straight and are on a mission to take back control of the MAC. Keep in mind they are 6-3 overall and all 3 losses have come against Power 5 opponents (Iowa, Utah & FSU).

I just think because they aren’t a flashy team that puts up a lot of points, it has them still flying a bit under the radar. Hard for people to trust a Northern Illinois team that is averaging 19.2 ppg to beat a Toledo squad that comes in scoring 41.2 ppg.

The thing is, the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country and while the overall numbers don’t show it, they are scoring a modest 26.8 ppg in conferences play. Going back to the defense, they rank 32nd in the country, allowing a mere 346.9 ypg and are strong up front. Northern Illinois ranked 13th against the run (103.8 ypg) and are giving up a mere 2.6 yards/carry.

While they are outgaining opponents in conference play by 51.4 yards/game, Toledo is actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards/game.

The Rockets simply don’t have a great defense and are forced to try to outscore teams to beat them. That works against a lot of teams, but chances are they will struggle to pull out wins against a team like Northern Illinois.

I know Toledo comes into this game off a couple of lopsided wins, as they won at Western Michigan 51-24 the week before crushing Ball State 45-13. What you have to keep in mind with those two wins, is Western Michigan lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink was injured early and they got Ball State without Riley Neal, who does it all for that team.

Even going up against inexperienced backups this Toledo defense struggled. Ball State’s Drew Plitt threw for 340 yards and Western Michigan’s Kaleb Eleby threw for 293 yards and 2 scores (next game at home against Ohio was 10 of 19 for 152 yards and 2 picks).

You always want to check the forecast this late in the season, and conditions here aren’t great for scoring, which I feel definitely favors the Huskies. It’s expected to be right around 32 degrees at kickoff with winds blowing at close to 10 mph. Give me Northern Illinois -3!

40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game.

With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points.

In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards.

I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg).

Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs.

I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road. 

New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. 

I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1) 

I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.

Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.

The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.

All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.

Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.

I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.

Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (Washington -10) 

I went against Washington a couple weeks ago with Colorado as a double-digit road dog and cashed a winning ticket. Some might think I would be considering taking Stanford as a double-digit dog, especially after just watching the Huskies lose at Cal as a 11-point favorite. Not a chance. I believe this line is telling you who the books think is going to show up on Saturday. The public is going to poor in on the Cardinal at this price. No way they make Stanford a double-digit dog if they think that's the right side. I think the big upset was lurking after Washington lost that shot at a national title with their second loss of the season against Oregon. However, now that they have hit rock bottom, I'm willing to be Chris Peterson will be able to get them to show up at home under the lights. This Stanford defense can be exposed and if Washington's defense brings the intensity, this won't be close. Give me the Huskies -10! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders as a near two touchdown dog. I think a lot of people see Oklahoma as this unbeatable team in the Big 12 and capable of covering any spread they come across. I'm not saying they aren't good, but this is a big number for them to be laying against a quality Texas Tech team (better than they have been in years). The Red Raiders are actually tackling people and playing a little defense. With the way this team can score, especially at home, I see no reason to think they can't keep this within 10-points. With this game coming at night, I think it gives Texas Tech a very good shot of winning this game outright. Much like how LSU's Tiger Stadium turns into something different under the lights on Saturday night, the same thing happens in Lubbock with Jones AT&T Stadium. Give me the Red Raiders +13.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan -12) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Michigan. To a lot of people this line will make no sense. They will think there's no way Penn State should be getting this many points, especially after how they beat them 42-13 last year. To me I see a much-improved Wolverines team that has been itching for two weeks to get their revenge on the Nittany Lions. A Penn State team I think is overrated and ready to be exposed. Michigan had this same mindset in their two previous games against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both games they won and covered as a lot bigger favorites than a lot of people thought they should be. While Michigan is fresh, the Nittany Lions are banged up after a very physical game against Iowa. I also don't think this Penn State team is playing with the same edge after those back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. While not out of it, it's really a long shot. They would still need Michigan to lose again and the only potential loss left on the schedule for the Wolverines is at Ohio State. The only way that matters is if the Buckeyes lose another game before that, as they are 1-game up on the Nittany Lions. Give me Michigan -12! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Kentucky as a near double-digit home dog to Georgia. There's something special about this Wildcats team and they have absolutely embraced this underdog role. To rally the way they did last week against Missouri, is going to have this team as excited for a game as they have been in quite some time. The atmosphere under the lights at Kroger Field will be electric and we have already seen the Bulldogs crumble in a hostile environment at LSU. A game they lost by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite. Not to mention, if Kentucky wins this game they will simply need to beat Tennessee to lock up the East Division and a spot in the SEC Championship Game. There only loss all year came at Texas A&M in overtime by 6-points. I just don't think Georgia is like Alabama, where they are unbeatable, yet that's the feeling a lot of people had coming into this year. Give me the Wildcats +9.5 and sprinkle a little on that money line! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with Purdue laying less than a field goal at home to the Hawkeyes. ’m immediately drawn to unranked teams that are favorites against a team that is ranked in the Top 25. I think the books are tipping their hand to the side you should be taking and if you play them consistently, you are going to wind up on top. With that said, the line isn’t the only reason I’m taking the Boilermakers to win this game. I think Iowa’s loss to Penn State will be much harder for the Hawkeyes to rebound from than Purdue’s loss at Michigan State. 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying less than a field goal at home against West Virginia. I know the Mountaineers are sitting No. 13 in the country and tied with Oklahoma on top the Big 12 at 4-1. I know they got a great QB/WR duo with Grier and Stills. I just think it has them getting way too much respect. The best team West Virginia has played all year is Iowa State, who I think is the 3rd best team in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma and Texas. The Mountaineers didn't just lose to the Cyclones, they were completely outmatched on both sides of the ball. Iowa State held them to 152 total yards and 14 points (scored non-offensive TD). They also gave up 498 total yards to the Cyclones, who threw for 254 yards and 3 scores and ran for 244 yards and a score. Texas is better than they were last week at Oklahoma State and this team has been a force at home this season. This isn't just another game. The winner of this game not only has a shot at the regular-season title, but it really puts them in the driver seat to at least make the Big 12 title game, which is really what both these teams want. The atmosphere will carry Texas to a win. Give me the Longhorns -2! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa St -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Iowa State laying just 14.5-points on the road against Kansas. I really like this Cyclones team and while I think they are getting some love from the experts and media (ranked in CFB playoff Top 25), I don't think the public is 100% on board. For a lot of people, they are going to just look at the Cyclones overall body of work and see they are 4-3 with good wins and some not so great performances. The thing is this team could easily be 6-1 and I'm not so sure they don't beat Oklahoma at home if Brock Purdy was the starter. Purdy is why this team is still showing value. This is a different team with him at quarterback.He took over in the win at Oklahoma State  and they haven't lost since destroying West Virginia at home and knocking of TCU. Kansas is better than they have been in a while and they are off a surprising upset win over TCU, which I think is also playing into this line. That Horned Frogs team is in a really bad place right now, so take that win however you want, but I'm not all that impressed. This team lost by 20 to Oklahoma St, 16 to W Virginia and 32 to Texas Tech. The same 3 teams ISU has beat since Purdy took over. I think the Cyclones have to play their worst and Kansas plays their best for this to even sniff being a two-touchdown game. Give me ISU -14.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Buffaloes going into Tucson and secure a win over the Wildcats. It doesn’t get much worse than losing a game where you have a 28-point lead in the 2nd half. There’s two ways to respond from a loss like that. It either cripples you or it lights a fire under you. I got a good feeling that Mike MacIntyre’s squad will be ready to go on Friday.

There’s a lot of guys in that locker room who remember what Tate did to them last year (set FBS quarterback rushing record, 327 yards). Not to mention they want revenge for loss they got handed on their home field. On top of that, they have to be thinking they might need this game to make a bowl, which is crazy given they were 5-0.

Their next two are at home against Washington St and Utah. Two of the best teams in the conference. They end the year at Cal, who just upset Washington at home. A win here also keeps them alive in the Pac-12 South race, which should be more than enough motivation on it’s own for them to show up.

As for Arizona, I’m just not buying a whole lot into their blowout win against Oregon. I think they caught the Ducks about as flat as you will find a team. Oregon had just lost 34-20 at Washington State to end a streak of 4 straight games against Top 25 teams. Two of which were the marquee 'GameDay' matchup. 

They clearly didn’t look like they were ready to play and the numbers kind of suggest that. No disrespect to the Arizona defense, but for the Ducks to only put up 270 yards says it all.

Even after that great performance against Oregon, the Wildcats come into this game ranked 93rd against the run (183.4 ypg) and 81st against the pass (238.2 ypg). I know Tate had a good game, but we have seen this Arizona offense struggle against better defensive teams.

Colorado is a respectable 46th against the run and 63rd vs the pass. This team held Washington to 351 total yards and 27 points on the road. If they simply do that against Arizona, they will be in great shape to win here by double-digits. Give me the Buffaloes +3!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple +11) 

I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a big double-digit underdog. As impressive as this UCF run has been, the Knights are going to slip up at some point and I think it could be this game. Either way, I think UCF is way overvalued here against a very good Temple team. 

The Knights should have already lost, as they pulled off a miraculous 31-30 win at Memphis a few weeks back, where they trailed 30-14 in the 2nd quarter. They were outgained by the Tigers 490 to 461 and had a 27-18 edge in first downs. I just think that game is a good indicator of the type of team that can beat UCF and I definitely feel Temple fits that mold.

The Owls feature a great defense that has been battle tested. Temple is 25th in the country, giving up just 330 yards/game. They are giving just 4.2 yards/play against teams that average 5.5 yards/play. They are holding teams almost 75 yards under their season average and a touchdown under their scoring average. I know McKenzie Milton is expected to play, but he might be limited some with that ankle injury. Knowing that he’s just one wrong hit away from aggravating it, he might be hesitant to run, which is what makes him such a dangerous player.

I also think this UCF defense is one that Temple’s offense can expose. The Knights are giving up 448 yards/game in conference play and that’s a bit concerning given the only real team they have played is Memphis. The other 3 were against UConn, SMU an  ECU, who are a combined 2-10 in league play.

The other thing here is we can bank on a max effort here from the Owls, who not only want revenge from last year’s embarrassing loss, but they want to be the one that puts an end to the Knights win streak. I think they pull it off, but I’m confident they keep this within the number. Give me the Owls +11!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC KNOCKOUT (Miami +7) 

I'll take my chances with the RedHawks. I think a lot of people have been on this Buffalo team early on and the Bulls have rewarded them with a 6-1 ATS stretch, including three straight covers. Most will overlook the fact that Miami has covered 5 straight and just assume this 3-5 team won’t be able to keep it within a touchdown on the road against the Bulls.

I just don’t think there’s a whole lot that separates these two teams in terms of actual talent on the field. Buffalo is averaging 31.0 ppg in MAC play, while allowing just 18.7. Miami is averaging 37.2 ppg and giving up just 21.5. I know you can’t read too much into common opponents, but it is worth noting that the RedHawks lost to Army in double-overtime, while Buffalo lost 42-13 at home to the Black Knights. The Bulls also only beat Akron 24-6 at home, while Miami won 41-17 on the road against the Zips.

Both teams have big time playmakers at quarterback. The Redhawks have senior Gus Ragland, who has completed 60.6% of his attempts with a 14-3 TD-INT ration. Buffalo has junior Tyree Jackson, who despite a mere 56.6% completion rate, has a 20-8 TD-INT ratio.

Defensively both teams are really good, but strictly based off numbers, the Bulls hold a slight edge. Miami is 38th in the country (350 ypg) and Buffalo is 26th (331). However, both teams are giving up an identical 4.9 yards/play.

I would have this game listed as a pick’em on a neutral field, which means both teams would be around a 3 to 3.5 point home favorite. Not only is Miami showing great value at this price, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Give me the RedHawks +7!

40* PATRIOTS/BILLS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -13.5)

I'll take my chances here laying the big number with New England on the road. History is going to suggest that you take the big division home dog here, but history hasn’t seen an offense as bad as what Buffalo will put on display for Monday Night Football. The Bills are on pace to finish this season with the worst offensive efficiency we have ever seen.

It’s not easy beating a team in the NFL by two touchdowns on the road, but I just don’t know how you can trust this Bills team to keep this within 13 points. If this were an early Sunday kickoff, I might consider rolling the dice with Buffalo, but no way is Tom Brady and the Patriots not showing up for the bright lights of Monday Night Football. On top of that, New England has consistently been the team that has overcome these key situational trends under Brady and Belichick. They have also won 3 straight in the series by at least 16 points. 

I just don’t know how the Bills can keep this one competitive. New England’s offense is clicking right now. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in 3 straight games. If they hit that mark here, Buffalo would need to score 25 to cover. The Bills have scored 25 or more just once this season. Chances are they will struggle to just score 20, as they have failed to simply reach 14 points in 5 of their 7 games.

With Josh Allen sidelined, Buffalo is likely to go with Derek Anderson again, but I’m not so sure he’s a much better option than Nathan Peterman, which says a lot given how atrocious Peterman has been.

I know the Bills are going to get up for this game and the home fans will be pumped up for prime time, but there’s simply a massive edge in both talent on the field and in coaching that I would have to roll the dice with the Patriots. Give me New England -13.5!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Colts -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a field goal at Oakland. I think a lot of people will hesitate to back Indy here as a road favorite, as they are just 2-5 on the season. The key thing here for me, is I don't trust this Raiders team to show up.

Oakland has been in the media for all the wrong reasons of late. There's rumors out there that not everyone is a fan of starting quarterback Derek Carr and management keeps trading away their best players. First it was Khalil Mack, now it's wide out Amari Cooper. 

On top of all that, this team wasn't that good to start with and that's evident by their 1-5 record, which includes losses by 15 or more to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks. As for the Colts, injuries have really kept this team from reaching it's full potential, but I think we saw just how good they can be in last week's 37-5 win over Buffalo. 

Andrew Luck is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in the game and they got a lot of good young talent on the defensive side of the ball. I just think Luck is going to be able to have his way with the Raiders defense and Oakland will struggle to keep pace. Give me the Colts -3! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati as a small home favorite. I believe this is an ideal get right spot for the Bengals, who have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field after how bad they played in last week's loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. 

I was all over Kansas City in that game, as I just thought it was really tough spot for the Bengals coming off that devastating loss at home to the Steelers and having to face one of the best teams in the league in prime time on the road. They aren't going to be the last team to get whooped by Kansas City in Arrowhead this season. 

As much as I loved going against Cincinnati in that game, I love the Bengals in this spot. Not only are we going to get a max effort, but we are getting a very favorable price to back them. 

The biggest problem for the Bengals in their last two games has been the play of their offense. I don't see that trend continuing against this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are giving up a ridiculous 40.7 ppg and 458 yards/game on the road this season.

Their defense ranks dead last against the pass, giving up 327.5 ypg. While they are 6th against the run, they just lost one of their best linebackers, Kwon Alexander to a season-ending ACL injury and both starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Vinny Curry are listed as questionable. As for the Bucs offense, it's got some nice weapons in the passing game, but they have zero threat of a running game and Jameis Winston continues to take horrible care of the football. Winston has played in just 3 games and has already thrown 6 interceptions. The Bucs as a whole have turned it over 13 times in their last 4 games and forced just two turnovers during that stretch. 

Simply put this is not a team you want to back on the road. Tampa Bay is just 3-8-1 ATS in there last 12 road games and are also a mere 3-9-1 in their last 14 off a non-cover. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 at home, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of their last two games. Give me the Bengals -3.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3) 

I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road. 

For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away. 

Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball. 

I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Mississippi St -1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small home favorite against Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a team I think a lot of people are taking notice of right now. They are now No. 16 in the country at 5-2 and their 2 losses are against Clemson and Alabama. Not to mention all the respect Jimbo Fisher gets as a head coach. 

This line is absolutely begging the public to take Texas A&M. Mississippi State just lost and failed to cover at LSU (scored just 3 points) and are just 1-3 in their last 4 games. I'm going the other way and taking the Bulldogs to win this one at home. 

While Mississippi State comes in struggling, there's no denying the talent that is on this team. They got one of the best defensive lines in the country and a dynamic quarterback who is really tough to stop when he's on his game. 

I expecting to see a pissed off and highly motivated Bulldogs team at home in what will be an electric atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The Aggies have won 3 straight, but could have lost all 3. They only won by 7 at home against Arkansas, by 6 at home against Kentucky and by 3 last time out at South Carolina. 

I think the fact that their only two losses are against Clemson and Alabama, has people thinking they are a little better than they are. They too might think that and it's just hard to win on the road in the SEC. Give me the Bulldogs -1! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Missouri -7) 

I'll take my chances here with Missouri at home in this one. Kentucky is 6-1 and ranked No. 12 in the country and getting 7 against a Missouri team that is 4-3 and 0-3 in the SEC. It makes no sense. Whenever I see a line like this, I'm almost always going to take the favorite, as I just feel the books are telling you what side to bet. 

Kentucky's defense is really good, but this Missouri offense is one of the more potent units in the SEC and has a big time quarterback in Drew Lock. Add in playing at home and I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball. 

The other key here is the Wildcats offense has zero threat of a passing attack and star running back Benny Snell is banged up. Missouri has the perception of being a bad defensive team, but they really matchup well here. The Tigers are awful against the pass, but are ranked 34th in the country, giving up just 131.6 ypg on the ground. 

I just have a hard time seeing the Wildcats keep pace offensively in this one and if the offense struggles to run, it greatly increases the chances of turnovers and Missouri getting the ball with great field position. I think the Tigers get the lead early and coast to a big home win. Give me the Tigers -7! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Houston laying over a touchdown at home against undefeated and No. 21 ranked USF (7-0). Most are going to look at this line and not even hesitate to take the Bulls at 7.5. Anytime I see a line that looks this off, I'm going to take the side that doesn't make sense almost every time. 

This line tells me the books don't just expect the Cougars to win this game, but they expect them to blowout South Florida. A closer look and it's easy to see why Houston is the right side. The Bulls are simply 7-0 because of their schedule. Their best win of the season was a home victory over Georgia Tech, where they had two kickoff returns for touchdowns and were outgained by 176 yards (gave up 602 yards). 

Their other 6 opponents are Elon, Illinois, E Carolina, UMass, Tulsa and Connecticut. The offense is putting up 35.6 ppg, but it's come against teams that on average give up 36.0 ppg. In comparison, Houston is averaging 48.7 ppg against teams that only give up 34.8 ppg. 

Not to mention they are 86th in the country, giving up 410 ypg, which has come against teams that only average 378. The Cougars average 555 and 7.4 yards/play. This team is going to score at will against the Bulls at home and I just don't think USF can keep pace. Give me Houston -7.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida +7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Florida as a touchdown underdog to the Bulldogs. I just think this thing should be closer to a pick'em with it being on a natural field. This Georgia team is still getting mad love from the public for what they did last year. 

Most are just tossing up that 36-16 loss at LSU as a bad game for Georgia, like they had last year with Auburn. That might be the case, but I personally just think it's a sign that this team isn't as good as everyone makes them out to be. Their two toughest games before that were at Missouri and at South Carolina, which are decent but not great teams. 

Florida isn't another middle of the pack opponent. This Gators team is the real deal. Dan Mullen has worked his magic in year one and has this team playing as well as we have seen in years. They beat the same LSU team that rolled Georgia 27-19. 

There's no doubt in my mind Florida is going to feed off the underdog role and I don't think they just cover. I fully expect them to win this game outright. Give me the Gators +7! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa St -5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with ISU as a small home favorite against the Red Raiders. I think Iowa State might be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country right now and certainly don’t feel like they are getting near enough respect with this small line.

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Minnesota +2) 

I'll take my chances on the Golden Gophers as a home dog, as I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these teams played this past Saturday, with Indiana nearly upsetting a ranked team and Minnesota losing badly to a team that hadn’t won a game.

I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that was a tough spot for the Gophers. Minnesota had just laid it all on the line the previous week in a loss at then No. 3 Ohio State. They were primed for a letdown after that big effort and it’s not like Nebraska was commanding a ton of respect. While the Gophers came out flat, the Cornhuskers were all-in, trying to get that first win of the season. Note that after falling behind 28-0, they pulled within 28-22 before running out of steam in the 2nd half.

I’m willing to bet P.J. Fleck is going to have his troops ready to go for this game and there’s no question he’s going to use the fact that they are getting no respect as a home dog to Indiana as a motivator.

As for the Hoosiers great showing against Penn State, you have to keep in mind that the Nittany Lions were coming off a crushing 21-17 loss at home to Michigan State, which all but ruined any hopes they had of winning the Big Ten East and making the 4-team playoff. I don’t think it will be the last time Penn State struggles against a lessor opponent down the stretch.

This will be the 3rd time Indiana has been a road favorite this season. They failed to cover either of the first two, winning by just 10 as a 13-point favorite at FIU and by a mere 7-points on the road against an awful Rutgers team as a 14.5-point favorite. Not to mention, I think this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers after laying it all on the line against the Nittany Lions and having to feel like they gave that game away.

Indiana is a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road game and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the number. Gophers are 11-3-3 ATS in their last 17 off a ATS loss and 5-1 in their last 6 after giving up 40 or more points. Give me Minnesota +2!

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes as a small road favorite against the Eagles. I simply think we are seeing a favorable number here with Miami, due to the fact that they come in off that loss to Virginia.

Boston College comes into this game at 5-2. Their 5 wins have come against UMass, Holy Cross, Wake Forest, Temple and Louisville. The two best wins are the road victory against the Demon Deacons and the home win over the Owls. While they won each of those by at least a touchdown, they yardage battle was basically even against Wake Forest and they were outgained by Temple.

In their two big step up games the Eagles lost 30-13 at Purdue and 28-23 at NC State. At the time the close loss to the Wolfpack looked solid, given NC State was undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. However, that loss looks a bit worse after the Wolfpack got annihilated 41-7 by Clemson this past Saturday.

The other thing to note is how bad Boston College’s defense has been in a lot of these games against better teams. They gave 512 total yards to Wake Forest, 372 to Purdue, 452 to Temple and 533 to NC State.

I know Miami’s offense has been hit or miss, but I like that head coach Mark Richt is going back to veteran quarterback Malik Rosier after turning over the reigns the last 4 games to red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry. While Perry provided a bit more in the passing game, he was careless with the football. He’s also not near the runner that Rosier is. Perry has 32 attempts for 51 yards and 0 touchdowns. Rosier has 32 attempts for 107 yards and 6 scores.

Even if the Hurricanes offense doesn’t put up a big number offensively, I still think they can win and cover with their defense. Miami has one of the best stop units in the country. They are giving up just 18.1 ppg (T-17th) and 236 yards/game (10th). Not to mention the defense is back to forcing turnovers, as they have 11 takeaways in their last 3 games, all of which have been against ACC opponents.

So much of what Boston College wants to do offensively is built around their running game and that’s not how you want to attack this athletic and fast Miami defense. We saw them only put up 85 rushing yards in that 30-13 loss to Purdue and I could see a similar type of outcome here with the Eagles offense struggling to get anything going. Note that BC’s star running back A.J. Dillion is questionable to play with a ankle injury and they really need him to play to have any shot at winning this game. Give me the Hurricanes -3.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Va Tech -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech and lay the short number with the Hokies. I just feel the price is right to take a shot on Virginia Tech at home in a prime time game.

No question the Hokies were fortunate to get that win at North Carolina last time out, but sometimes stealing a game can really light a fire under a team. At the same time, I think that ugly win over the Tar Heels, has created the value we are getting in this matchup.

The big thing to keep in mind with the poor showing against UNC, is it came the week after the Hokies got annihilated by Notre Dame 45-23 at home. Not a big surprise to see them come out flat on the road against a Tar Heels team that had just lost by 37 to Miami in their previous game.

I think another thing that’s keeping the number down is the fact that Georgia Tech won last year’s game as an underdog. The big thing to remember about that contest, is the Yellow Jackets had to win that game to have a realistic shot at making a bowl (needed to win 2 of their final 3 and one was against Georgia). On the flip side, Virginia Tech was off a crushing loss to Miami, which ended any hopes of them defending their Coastal title.

Not only are the Hokies going to want revenge from last year’s loss to the Yellow Jackets, but I’m sure they haven’t forgot about two years ago when Georgia Tech beat them on their home field.

Another key thing to note is that both teams are off a bye. While that might seem like a non-factor with both teams getting extra time to prepare, I think it’s a big edge for the Hokies, getting those extra few days to prepare for that option offense of Georgia Tech, especially with all the young guys they got on the defensive side of the ball.

Keep in mind that Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente has gone 8-3 off a bye, which includes a 3-1 mark since he took over in Blacksburg. Fuente’s teams have also been great after a sluggish stretch of play, as he’s 10-2 ATS in his last 12 after his team failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Georgia Tech on the other hand is a mere 3-12 ATS under Paul Johnson when coming off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent. Give me the Hokies -3! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 'ATS' PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a two touchdown dog. I just think the perception here is that the Mountaineers are going to bounce back from that ugly loss to Iowa State. I'm not saying they won't win the game at home, but I think they are still way overpriced due to the fact that they are 5-1 and still ranked No. 13 in the country.

I just don't think West Virginia is the 13th best team in the county and won't be the least bit surprised when they finish the season out of the Top 25. Will Grier is a great quarterback and will likely be playing on Sunday's but the Mountaineers team as a whole is nothing to get excited about. Their best win is a road victory at Texas Tech, where they were fortunate to jump out to a 28-7 lead, as they were outscored 27-14 over the final 3 quarters.

As for Baylor, I think the Bears remain undervalued, despite the fact that they are one of the most improved teams in the country. Baylor went just 1-11 last season with their only win coming against Kansas. They already have 4 wins in 2018 and just gave Texas all they could handle on the road. They did lost by 33 at Oklahoma, but note that they were down just 12-points in the 3rd quarter of that game and were only outgained by 114 yards (had 33 first downs to Sooners 22).

The big thing here for me, is I think this Baylor offense is going to be able to move the football against this West Virginia defense. The Bears might have a more defensive-minded head coach in Matt Rhule, but they are still a very good offensive team. Baylor comes into this game ranked 18th in the country, averaging 475 ypg, behind the nation's 12th ranked passing attack.

The only two decent offenses the Mountaineers have faced all season are Texas Tech and Iowa State and they struggled big time in both. West Virginia gave up 463 yards and 34 points to the Red Raiders and 498 yards and 30 points to the Cyclones. Don't be fooled by the fact that the Mountaineers come in only giving up 20.5 ppg and 360 ypg.

Another thing to note is how West Virginia has struggled in similar spots as this one under head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers are 5-15 ATS in their 20 games under Holgorsen off a bye, 5-13 in their last 18 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after getting outgained by 225 or more total yards. As for Rhule, he's 16-4 ATS as a head coach against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 21-9 ATS in the 30 games where he's faced a team with a winning record. Give me Bears +14! 

40* TUESDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS ANNIHILATOR (S. Alabama +13) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jaguars as a near two-touchdown home dog. I just think we are seeing Troy getting way too much love here after how poorly they played in the first game without starting quarterback Kaleb Barker, who tore his ACL in the Trojans win over Georgia State.

Backup Sawyer Smith was just 13 of 25 for 135 yards in the loss to Liberty and that’s a Liberty team that is currently ranked 120th in the country, giving up 488.4 ypg. The fact that Troy could only muster 293 yards against that defense really says a lot about how much they miss Barker.

I think the loss of Barker not only gives South Alabama a good shot at keeping this within the number, but makes them a live home dog. The thing to keep in mind with the Jaguars 2-5 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule. Four of their five losses have come on the road. One was against Oklahoma State, one was against Memphis and the other two against arguably the two best teams in the Sun Belt in Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. The only home loss was to Louisiana Tech and they lost by just 4 as an 11-point underdog.

I’m also not so sure Troy is as good as people think, as they have played a very favorable schedule to this point. The Trojans have a win at Nebraska (without Adrian Martinez), but the Cornhuskers were a complete mess to start the year. The only other decent team they played was Boise State at home and they lost by 36.

Troy comes in averaging 33.7 ppg, but have actually underachieved, as their opponents on average are giving up 36.8 ppg. The 207 rushing  ypg and 5.6 yards/carry look great, but’s that’s basically on par with what their opponents are allowing.

You also have to factor in just how well South Alabama has played against Troy in recent meetings. They have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and covered 3 straight as an underdog. The Jaguars clearly put quite a bit into playing well against their in-state rivals and I expect nothing to change this time around.

Note that South Alabama has covered 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record and are 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Give me the Jaguars +13!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5) 

For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.

Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.

Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.

I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.

The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5! 

50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.

As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.

With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.

The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.

Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.

As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!

40* NFL EARLY BIRD VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Patriots -2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Patriots laying less than a field goal on the road against the Bears. I just don't know how you don't take New England at this price, no matter the circumstances. I know that the Pats will likely be without Gronkowski, but with Josh Gordon becoming more and more of a factor in the offense and how Brady can pick teams apart with Julian Edelman and his backs coming out of the backfield, I think New England's offense will be able to do enough to get the win. 

The key here is I think Bill Belichick and that Patriots defense is going to make life miserable for Mitch Trubisky. If you take away the 6 TD performance against an awful Bucs defense, Trubisky has just 5 TD passes in his other 4 games combined. I just think he's a very limited quarterback at this point in his career and with the way NE can disguise their defense, I think he's going to cost this team a chance to win. 

I love this Bears defense, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. Chicago's defense is really good, but they also have played a really easy schedule. Their 5 games have been against the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs and Dolphins. Green Bay is maybe the only potential playoff  team out of that bunch. This is a big step up in class and I'm taking the team laying less than a field goal that has the far superior quarterback and coach. Give me the Patriots -2.5! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Colts -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a touchdown at home against the Bills. I think the only thing that is keeping this line from being more is the fact that Indianapolis comes into this game at just 1-5. The thing is, if you have watched the Colts, you know they are better than their record. 

They have a couple of losses where they blew leads and others where they just missed out on a chance to win late. Not to mention they have had a difficult schedule to start the year with 4 of their first 6 on the road. 

The good thing about the Colts being 1-5, is we can bank on them laying it all on the line at home in this game, as they have to feel like their season is on the line with this game. A loss here and it's time to start thinking about next year. I expect them to step up to the challenge and deliver in a big way. 

I think due to the Colts struggles defensively, people are just assuming the Bills are going to be able to put up points. I'm not buying it. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson at quarterback, who they just signed a couple weeks ago and hasn't started in the NFL since 2016. There's going to be zero chemistry with that offense and it's already one of the least talented units in the league. Buffalo has scored fewer than 14 points in 4 of their 6 games. Give me the Colts -7! 

50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5) 

I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.

I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest. 

I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.

I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.

I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.

More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.

50* NCAAF PRE-BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -12.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky covering at home against Vanderbilt. I just don't think line is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. I don't having their perfect 5-0 start snapped in an overtime loss at Texas A&M is going keep this Wildcats team from returning right to the form that saw them open up 5-0 with a win at Florida and home wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. They beat all 3 of those teams by double-digits. They could barely move the football against Texas A&M and still had a legit shot at winning the game. I had the Aggies in that game, as I just didn't know how Kentucky was going to be able to move the ball with how much they rely on the run and how good Texas A&M is at stopping it. Not to mention how hard it is to play at Texas A&M under the lights on Saturday night. Now it's Kentucky under the lights at home against a Vandy team that had Florida on the ropes and proceeded to get outscored 34-3. I just think they caught Florida sleepwalking through the start of that game. This team lost by 28 at Georgia and 23 at home to South Carolina. I think  motivated Kentucky team, coming off a bye will be too much for the Commodores to handle. Give me the Wildcats -12.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Clemson -16.5) 

I got no problems following trends with proven results and this play falls into one that hasn't lost in two decades. Favorites of two touchdowns or more against an undefeated team of 5-0 or better are perfect 8-0 ATS going back to 1994. I'll gladly take my chances here with Clemson making it 9-0. This Tigers team hasn't played anywhere close to their full potential early on. I think they are close and their 63-3 win on the road against Wake Forest was as impressive as it gets. They outgained the Demon Deacons 698 to 249. I know NC State has played Clemson close the last two times, but I just don't this Wolfpack team is anywhere close to as good as they were in those matches. Their best wins are home victories against Virginia and Boston College and they only beat the Eagles by 5. They haven't seen anything close to an offense as talented as Clemson and I got a feeling after that Wake Forest game, this Tigers defense is fed up with people saying they are underachieving and will be out to make a statement. Give me Clemson -16.5! 

50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17.5) 

I'l take my chances here with Colorado as a 3-score underdog against the Huskies. I just feel Washington is going to have a really tough time bouncing back from that crushing overtime loss to Oregon. The Huskies had their chances to seal the win in regulation. They passed up on a field goal to take a 3-point lead, going for it and failing to covert on 4th & 1 from the Oregon 26 early in the 4th quarter. After the defense forced Oregon to punt, Washington again drove it into Ducks territory, only this time to miss a short 37-yard field goal as time expired.

Another thing to keep in mind with Colorado’s poor offensive showing against USC, is the Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards. I think the books have once again undervalued this team in this spot. Give me the Buffaloes +17.5!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC +10.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels as a double-digit road dog against the Orange. North Carolina should have beat Virginia Tech last week. The Tar Heels led 16-7 midway thru the 3rd quarter and still had a 19-14 advantage late in the 4th, before giving up a TD with 19 seconds left to lose 22-19. UNC outgained a good Hokies team 522 to 375. I think they come into this game with a ton of confidence on offense and the Orange are a defense they can exploit. Syracuse is 96th in the country against the run and 69th agains the pass. It's not that I don't think the Orange are a bad team, but I think they are still overvalued from that 4-1 ATS start, which included that close call against Clemson. They followed it up with a loss to Pitt and the 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. They played Clemson close last year and followed it up by losing their final 5 games. They should be favored at home over UNC, but not by double-digits, as the Tar Heels could easily win this outright. Give me North Carolina +10.5! 

40* AIR FORCE/UNLV FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Air Force -9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Falcons laying less than double-digits against the Rebels. The matchup here heavily favors Air Force.

I also think we are getting a shorter number, due to this being a potential trap game for the Falcons off the big game against San Diego State and a home game against Boise State looming next week. Had they pulled off the win over the Aztecs I might by this being a flat spot, but with a 2-4 record, Air Force needs this game if they want a legit shot at becoming bowl eligible.

Offensively, these are two very similar teams in terms of how the majority of their yards are produced. Air Force is 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Neither team offers much in terms of passing, but Air Force has been the more effective of the two when throwing. The Falcons average 7.3 yards/pass attempt, where the Rebels only average 4.8 yards/pass attempt.

You have to think given the numbers, that the team who has the better success establishing the run will have the edge in this game. As far as which of these two teams is better at stopping the run, it’s not even close. Air Force is 8th in the nation, giving up just 101.2 rushing yards/game and are holding teams to 3.2 yards/carry. UNLV on the other hand is 104th in the country against the run, allowing 199 ypg and are giving up 5.2 ypc.  Note that Air Force dominated a run-heavy team in Navy, beating the Midshipmen 35-7 as a 2-point underdog.

I just think that due to the fact that both teams are sitting with a record of 2-4, we are seeing a much lower number than we should, as I think Air Force is without a doubt the superior team. The Falcons have 3 road losses against the likes of FAU, Utah State and San Diego State. UNLV’s only two wins are against UTEP and Prairie View and just a couple weeks ago lost at home to New Mexico by 36 points. I just don’t feel like it’s asking a lot for Air Force to win here by two touchdowns. Give me the Falcons -9.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona St +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sun Devils as a home dog. I just feel the value here is clearly with Arizona State, as Stanford has no business being a road favorite against the Sun Devils.

For me, I just don’t trust this Cardinal offense. With or without Bryce Love, Stanford has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are 127th in the country in rushing at 85.7 ypg. In their last game against the Utes, they managed just 42 yards on 28 attempts. K.J. Costello threw for 381 yards, but had two interceptions and a lost fumble.

That struggling Stanford offense will be up against a talented Arizona State defense, that has not allowed a single team to score more than 28 points against them all season. A pretty impressive feat given they have played the likes of Michigan State, Washington, San Diego State and Colorado.

The only one of those that came at home was against the Spartans and they held them to just 13 points. Their run defense at home has been outstanding, as they are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry. They should be able to make Stanford one dimensional and the entire unit should feed off a rowdy home crowd under the lights.

The other key here is the Arizona State offense should be able to move the ball against a Stanford defense that has been torched in their last 3 games. The Cardinal gave up 31 points (should have been more) and 524 yards to Oregon, 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame and 40 points and 421 yards to Utah. During this stretch they have allowed 224 yards/game on the ground. Stanford is a mere 79th in the country in total defense and 108th in total offense. That’s not the numbers you expect to see from a road favorite in a game like this.

Arizona State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 in their last 6 at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. They are also a dominant 18-2 ATS in their last 20 vs a team that can’t run the football (90 or less yards/game). Give me the Sun Devils +3!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9) 

I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.

It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).

I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.

With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.

It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7)

I'll take my chances here with USC at home against Colorado. It's just a matter of principal for me. When you have an unranked team laying a touchdown against a ranked opponent, you take the favorite. We played this exact scenario and won last week with Texas A&M hosting Kentucky. 

There's definitely a ton of talent at USC, but it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise they lost on the road against the likes of Stanford and Texas with the lack of experience they had on offense, especially at quarterback with true freshman J.T. Daniels starting. 

I think a lot of people wrote off this USC team after those losses, but I think they are only getting better. They got back on track with a win at home over a good Washington State team and Daniels shined with 241 yards and 3 scores. They then went on the road and beat Arizona 24-20, but that's a very misleading final, as the Trojans were up 24-0 in the 2nd half. 

This is a game USC has to have a legit shot at the Pac-12 South title and I think they expose this Colorado team. The Buffaloes are better than we expected, but let's not get carried away about a team that there best win is a 7-point win at home against Arizona State, where they trailed in the 4th quarter. 

They have also played just 1 true road game. That was at Nebraska and they trailed 28-20 in the 2nd half, were outgained 565 to 393 and barely won 33-28. Nebraska has since lost at home to Troy, by 46 to Michigan, by 14 to Purdue and by 17 to Wisconsin. 

I think Daniels and that offense are going to have a big day and a good USC defense will feed off the home crowd and slow down this overrated Buffaloes offense. Give me the Trojans -7! 

50* NCAAF 'BIG TEN' GAME OF THE MONTH (Michigan -9.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines winning by double-digits at home against the Badgers. This might seem like a big number, but given the spot and how these teams matchup, I think Michigan is going to make quite the statement in their first real big game since the opener against Notre Dame. 

I absolutely loves teams that have something to prove, who are playing at home in a prime time. The fans just take it to a different level when the game is played under the lights. I also think that while Wisconsin is a good team, they aren't quite as good as everyone thought. They were fortunate to win at Iowa and lost at home to a pretty average BYU team. 

What's even more concerning for me is how the defense just gave up 24 points and over 500 yards to Nebraska at home. The same Cornhuskers team that managed only 10 points and 132 yards at Michigan a couple weeks earlier. The injuries have really mounted up in the secondary for the Badgers and Nebraska's true freshman Adrian Martinez just threw for 384 yards and a 2-0 TD-INT ratio against them last week. 

I think that Michigan's defense is built to shutdown this Wisconsin offense and will be flying all over the field at home under the lights. Shea Patterson and the Wolverines offense are simply going to have the much easier time scoring. Eventually that Badgers defense is going to wear down and that's when this thing could get out of hand. Give me Michigan -9.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (California -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown at home. This is the ideal spot to jump on Cal, who is desperate for a win after losing two straight following their 3-0 start. On the flip side of this, I believe this is also a great time to fade UCLA. This is a huge letdown spot for the Bruins, who gave everything they had in their upset bid of Washington last week.

This team just doesn’t have the talent or experience to come off a loss like that and play well on the road, especially in what’s going to be a hostile environment with this game being a prime time matchup under the lights. The even bigger key here is we know we are going to get a max effort from Cal in this one. Something I don’t think UCLA got from the Huskies last week. It felt like Washington was content just going through the motions after building up that 17-point lead at the half.

I’ve said this numerous times when talking about UCLA, it’s only a matter of time before Kelly has that program competing for conference titles. It’s just not going to happen this year and while the team should keep improving, they simply got a long way to go before they are going to win games on the road against the team the caliber of Cal.

There’s just not a lot to like about the Bruins on either side of the football. UCLA is 101st in rushing (138.6 ypg) and 94th against the run (185.8 ypg). They are also 101st in passing (195.4 ypg) and 95th against the pass (243.8 ypg). They have the 120th ranked offense in the country and the 102nd ranked defense.

Prior to the closer than expected final against Washington, they had lost by 22 on the road to Colorado, 24 at home to Fresno State and 28 at Oklahoma. Note that awful showing at home against the Bulldogs came the following week after their big game against the Sooners, so this wouldn’t be the first time they didn’t show up after playing a Top 10 opponent.

I also feel like we are getting a bit of a discount on Cal due to the fact that they just lost outright as a favorite against a Arizona team a lot of people are down on. The thing is, the Wildcats weren’t the better team, the Golden Bears simply beat themselves. Arizona’s only points in the final 3 quarters came via interception returns for touchdowns. Cal outgained the Wildcats 476 to 265 and had a 25 to 13 edge in first downs. I know turnovers have been a problem for the Bears in 2018, but the Bruins defense has just 5 takeaways in 5 games and 3 of those came against non-Power 5 opponents.

I look for Cal to easily score 30+ points in this game and that should be more than enough to get the cover, as UCLA is averaging just 18.4 ppg and haven’t scored more than 24 in a single game all season. Give me the Golden Bears -6.5! 

50* NCAAF 'ACC' GAME OF THE YEAR (Boston College -13) 

I'll take my chances here with the Eagles winning by at least 2 touchdowns against Louisville. Until the books start adjusting the Cardinals to the product they are putting on the field, I'll continue to keep looking to fade this team. 

I think Petrino has overstayed his welcome at Louisville and we are seeing just how much Lamar Jackson meant to that team the past couple of years. This team didn't come to play in a prime time weekday game at home, where most teams are chomping at the bit. They gave up 66 points and 542 rushing yards to a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team. 

I just don't see them wanting any part of what is going to be a pissed off Boston College team. The Eagles have lost 2 of their last 3 following a perfect 3-0 start. The most recent being a 28-23 loss at NC State. Regardless if A.J. Dillion plays, I expect the Eagles to have their way in this one. 

Two years ago Louisville went into BC and laid it on the Eagles 52-7. Don't think for a second that Addazio has forgot about that game. I fully expect BC to pour it on if it gets out of hand and I think they win here by 20+ rather easy. Give me the Eagles -13! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS MASSACRE (Duke +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Blue Devils getting points against the Yellow Jackets. I think Duke is the far superior team and have some massive advantages in this matchup. 

The Blue Devils were 4-0 with double-digit wins on the road against Northwestern and Baylor. They also had their way with a good Army team (won 34-14). The thing is, last time out they lost by 17 as a 7-point favorite against Va Tech. That loss really hurt the perception of this team. 

On the flip side, Georgia Tech just won 66-31 on the road against Louisville as a 5.5-point favorite. A game a lot of people watched, given it was played on a weekday. The game prior to that they won and covered 63-17 against Bowling Green. I think those two results have them way overvalued. Bowiling Green is awful and Louisville threw in the towel after that crushing loss to FSU. Georgia Tech has already lost twice as a small favorite this season and it's going to happen again. 

I love anytime we get Duke in the role of the dog under head coach David Cutcliffe, especially on the road. Blue Devils are 12-4 in their last 16 as a dog of 7 or less on the road and a perfect 6-0 when they are a dog of 3 points or less. 

I mentioned the dominant win over Army, where the held the Midshipmen to 14 points 168 rushing yards. Army runs basically the same triple-option offense as Georgia Tech and if you can stop the run against the Yellow Jackets, you can completely shut them down. Clemson held them to 146 rushing yards and they had just 7 points and less than 100 yards of offense with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Give me the Blue Devils +3! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Auburn -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Auburn getting things figured out at home against the Volunteers and I think we are getting a great price to back them. This is a big bounce-back game for the Tigers off that ugly loss at Mississippi State and this Tennessee is definitely one to let out some frustration against. 

The Vols only two wins are against E Tennessee State and UTEP. They lost by 26 to West Virginia, 26 to Florida and 26 to Georgia. The last two were against the Gators and Bulldogs and I just don't see this team having any fight left in them for this game. Coming off two division games and a game at home against No. 1 Alabama (Jeremy Pruitt vs Nick Saban), this could get ugly in a hurry. 

Auburn is going to want to show out offensively after scoring just 9-points against Mississippi State and Tennessee won't be able to stop them. On top of that, with how good the Tigers are defensively and how bad the Vols are offensively, Auburn is going to get to work with a lot of short fields and I would expect a defense that has forced 12 takeaways in 6 games will get at least a couple against a Tennessee offense that has turned it over 9 times in their last 3. 

Note that while the Vols did cover the 31 at Georgia last week, they are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game where they covered. Give me the Tigers -14.5! 

40* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT PAC-12 ATS MASSACRE (Utah -13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Utes laying less than two touchdowns at home. I think a lot of people are going to be tempted to take Arizona at this price, as they are coming off that big upset of Cal at home and the week before lost by just 4 at home to USC. The thing is, those are two very misleading results.

Let’s start with the game against the Trojans. The final score makes it appear like Arizona was competitive, but in reality USC just let their foot off the gas. The Trojans were in complete control with a 24-0 lead in the 2nd half and outgained the Wildcats 450 to 330. As for the Cal game, the Golden Bears gave that game away. Cal had a 476 to 265 edge in total yards, but turned it over 4 times, leading to 17 of Arizona’s 24 points, with 14 points coming via interception returns for touchdowns.

I’m willing to take my chances here that Arizona isn’t as fortunate against the Utes. Utah is a team that I think is well deserving of being this big of a favorite. Their only two losses are a 21-7 defeat at home to Washington and a 24-28 loss at Washington State, where the Cougars only score in the 2nd half was a 89-yard TD strike late to give them the lead.

Having already lost two conference games, there’s no room for error for Utah if they want a chance to win the Pac-12 South, so there will be no looking past the Wildcats. On top of that, Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play, especially when it’s a prime time game.

I also love the matchup for Utah. Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate is a much bigger threat running than he is passing and teams have really figured him out this season. For the Wildcats offense to be successful, they need to be able to run the football. That’s where this becomes a problem for Arizona, as Utah comes in ranked 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 75.4 ypg. They are holding teams to just 2.4 yards/carry and if they can take away the run, Tate is going to make mistakes in the passing game.

I also think this Utah offense is a lot better than people realize, as their offensive numbers are a bit skewed with all the strong defenses they have played. Arizona is 106th in the nation against the run (197.3 ypg) and 76th against the pass (231 ypg).

This Wildcats team is also not one you want anything to do with on the road. Arizona is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on the road after the first month of the season. They are also just 2-8ATS in their last 10 after covering the spread in their previous game and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Give me the Utes -13.5!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian St -10) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering as a big double-digit road favorite. When the Mountaineers nearly pulled off the upset against Penn State in Week 1 (missed a field goal to win it at the end of regulation), I credited the close game more to Penn State just not being as good this year without Saquon Barkley. More than a month down the road, we know that the Nittany Lions are one of the most talent teams in the country, which makes that performance all the more impressive, especially given it was on the road.

Since that near upset the Red Wolves have beat Charlotte 45-9, Gardner Webb 72-7 and South Alabama 52-7. I know that’s a bunch of cupcakes, but the key thing is they absolutely dominated all 3 of those teams. Arkansas State has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and UNLV, but in their big step-up game they lost by 50 points to Alabama.

Not only do I think Appalachian State is the better team, but I think the matchup here is heavily in their favor, as I think they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

There were concerns about the Red Wolves run defense coming into this season, as they only had one starter back on the defensive line and it’s been even worse than expected. Arkansas State ranks 124th in the country, giving up 244.4 ypg. In their conference opener against Georgia Southern, they let the Eagles rush for 348 yards on 49 attempts (7.1 yards/carry). Appalachian State has one of the best offensive lines in the Sun Belt this year and are 9th in the country in rushing at 269.5 ypg.

As for the Mountaineers defense, they are giving up just 104.3 rushing yards/game (12th) and 172.0 passing yards/game (14th). They are also allowing a mere 4.0 yards/play. The final score against Penn State makes you think it was a shootout, but the Nittany Lions had just 24 points with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held Trace McSorley to just 229 yards passing and Miles Sanders to a mere 91 yards on 19 carries.

This defense is the real deal and while the Red Wolves have a legit quarterback in Justice Hansen, I don’t see Arkansas State being able to keep pace offensively to keep this one competitive. Give me the Mountaineers -10.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -3) 

I'll take my chances here with KC as a slim 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville. All the talk this week is going to be around can Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense continue to put up big numbers against what everyone believes is the best defense in the league. I believe he can. After what we saw last week against the Broncos, who have a pretty good defense of their own and the game being played in Denver in front of an electric crowd, there’s no way I’m betting against this kid and this team right now.

One of the things that can really frustrate a good defense is a mobile quarterback, who can make plays on the run. Time after time against the Broncos, Mahomes scrambled and made big plays on the run. He did so with a very poor game from his offensive line, though I think their struggles were in large part because of all the noise from an electric Denver home crowd. I also think watching this Jaguars defense that you can exploit them deep and Mahomes certainly has the ability to stretch a defense.

I know the numbers for the Jaguars defense are off the charts and it’s clearly a talented bunch, but they have faced two immobile quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Tom Brady, a hobbled Marcus Mariota and a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Not to mention, none of those teams have the kind of playmakers that the Chiefs have at their disposal. Throw in the creativity that comes with a Andy Reid offense and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahomes and the Chiefs just kept rolling.

The biggest thing that is going to hinder people from taking Kansas City is their defense, which has not been very good to this point. However, I think the defense isn’t as atrocious as a lot of people think. They have played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. A Kyle Shanahan offense led by a really good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and a greatly improved Broncos offense under Case Keenum.

Not to mention, only one of those games came at home and the one game that was at home the defense played great early and the Chiefs had a 35-10 lead at the half. It’s no secret that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and that noise can really help the defense out.

Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Jaguars have played 3 of their first 4 games on the road. The only game away from home was in Week 1 at New York and the offense for Jacksonville wasn’t all that great, scoring just 13 points (defense had a pick six) and managed 305 yards. Adding to this, the Jaguars are a mere 13-33 on the road with Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback and just 5-22 as a road dog. With a spread of just 3-points, we are basically picking the winner here. Give me the Chiefs -3!

50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons.

Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh.

I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts.

You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation.

Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh.

As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3!

50* NCAAF SEC 'ATS' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texas A&M -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies as a mere 5.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. It doesn’t happen often, but whenever you have a team ranked in the Top 25 getting points against an unranked opponent, it’s usually a pretty good sign to fade the team that’s ranked. I couldn’t agree more, as I not only think Texas A&M wins this matchup, but I think they do so in blowout fashion.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the rankings this early in the season, is the overall record is really what the voters dial in on. So while I think it’s pretty clear that Texas A&M is one of best 25 teams in the country, their 3-2 record has them on the outside looking in for the time being.

The Aggies only two losses this season have come against arguably two of the top programs in the country in Clemson and Alabama. While they lost both of those contests, they were there with Clemson in a 28-26 defeat at home and while they lost by 18-points to Alabama, that’s the best any team has looked to this point against the Crimson Tide, who are the overwhelming favorites to win it all.

I’m also not the least bit concerned about their lackluster showing last week in a 7-point win over a bad Arkansas team as a 19-point favorite. That was a brutal spot for Texas A&M off that emotional loss to Alabama.

I expect a much more dialed in and focused Aggies squad, who are going to want to make a statement and get that first win over a Top 25 opponent under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. You also have to factor in just how difficult a place Kyle Field is to get a win, especially in a prime time night game.

No disrespect to Kentucky, who no one envisioned being 5-0 to start the season, but I just think the Wildcats are a bit overvalued right now. They have certainly benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 games at home and while the road win over Florida was impressive, I think it will be tough for them to keep this one close.

That’s because this is a really tough matchup for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s offense is built around star running back Benny Snell, as they come in ranked a mere 118th in the country in passing at  just 153 ypg. As good as Snell is, and he’s really good, Texas A&M has the defense to contain him.

The Aggies rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.6 ypg. Keep in mind they held Clemson to just 115 yard rushing and only gave up 109 rushing yards on the road to Alabama, who currently has the 29th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 217.4 ypg. Texas A&M also has one of the best defensive coordinators in the game today in Mike Elko and you can bet his entire gameplan will be to not let Snell beat them.

I just don’t think Kentucky can keep this within a touchdown without Snell being a major factor and this Wildcats offense is certainly not one that is built to play from behind. Starting quarterback Terry Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 165 yards in a single game this season and has just two touchdown passes to five interceptions. Give me the Aggies -5.5! 

40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +27)

I'll take my chances here with Indiana as a near 4-touchdown dog agains the Buckeyes on Saturday. It's amazing how the public can't help but betting the best teams, no matter the circumstances. 

I just don't think we are going to see the best Ohio State has to offer coming off that thrilling 27-26 win over Penn State, where they had to rally from 12 down in the final 8 minutes of regulation. Expecting this team to bring the same intensity they had against the Nittany Lions against a team like Indiana is crazy. It's not going to happen. On the flip side of this, this game means everything to the Hoosiers, as these middle of the pack teams live for these chances to upset a top team. 

I know the Buckeyes have a ton of talent on offense, but they struggled big time against Penn State. They only finished the game with 389 total yards and 174 of those came on there two 4th quarter scoring drives. Indiana's defense isn't on Penn State's level, but it's a solid unit. They are holding teams almost 7-points under their season average. As for the offense, that's where the less than 100% focused Ohio State team comes into play. 

We saw Indiana hang with the Buckeyes last year in a very misleading 49-21 loss, as they had a 21-20 lead in the 3rd quarter. All we need is for something like 45-20 to get a cover. Give me the Hoosiers +27! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT UNDERDOG KNOCKOUT (Texas +7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the spread. This just feels like the same old story we have seen the last 5 years in this series. Oklahoma has been over a touchdown favorite in this matchup each of the last 5 years, but have not covered a single spread during this stretch and have lost outright twice. All 3 wins for the Sooners have come by exactly 5-points. 

Not only do I think Texas keeps this close enough to cover, but I like the Longhorns to win this game outright. The only slip up on the schedule for Texas is that opening week loss to Maryland on a neutral field. A game they very easily could have won as they led 29-24 going into the 4th quarter and had 3 straight possessions end with a turnover in the 4th quarter with Texas trailing by just 5-points.

The less than impressive win over a Kansas State team that looks to be down this year doesn’t concern me the least. Much like they did against Tulsa in the week leading up to their big showdown with USC, they simply took their foot off the gas. It certainly didn’t impact their performance against the Trojans, who they rolled 37-14. Texas also followed up that blowout win over USC with an impressive 31-16 win over a very good TCU team the next week.

As for Oklahoma, I’m just not sold on the Sooners being as good as everyone thinks. I know Kyler Murray has stepped in and played extremely well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, but a lot of that has to do with a very easy schedule to start the year. The toughest opponent to this point for Oklahoma has been Iowa State and they only beat them by 10 with the Cyclones playing the game without their starting quarterback.

I believe the difference in this one is going to be the Texas defense, which has been lights out since giving up 34 to the Terps in the opener. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points in any game since. They come in giving up 19.8 ppg against teams that on average are scoring 26.7, which means they are holding teams to roughly a touchdown under their season average. They are only giving up 115 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run and while they are allowing 218 ypg through the air, opponents are only completing 54.9% of their pass attempts against them.

Adding to this, Texas is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs high-scoring teams like Oklahoma, who are averaging 37 or more points/game. You also can’t ignore how good Tom Herman coached teams have been in the role of the underdog. Herman is 11-1 ATS as a head coach in games as an underdog and I fully expect him to improve to 12-1 after Saturday. Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD LINE MISTAKE (South Carolina +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Gamecocks as a home dog. This South Carolina is getting no respect at all right now, as there is no reason for Missouri to be favored on the road. The Gamecocks two losses are against Georgia at home and on the road against Kentucky. They won 37-14 at Vanderbilt in a similar spot, as they were only a 1.5-point road favorite against a much inferior opponent. 

Every year Missouri looks great against bad teams and struggles against the top half of the SEC. Their best win is a 3-point victory at Purdue, who is down this year. They had their chance last week against Georgia at home and lost 43-29. That's a tough game to bounce back from, especially with a game against No. 1 Alabama looming on deck. 

I think we get a pissed off South Carolina team and with that defense feeding off the home crowd, I look for Drew Lock and that Missouri offense to struggle to keep pace with what their defense gives up. Keep in mind they given up more than 1,100 yards in their last two games. Give me the Gamecocks +1.5! 

50* NCAAF MAC 'ATS' GAME OF THE MONTH (Buffalo -7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Buffalo laying just 7.5-points on the road against the Chippewas. I love this spot for the Bulls, who are going to be itching to take the field after getting a reality check last week in a 42-13 loss at home to Army. 

That triple-option is brutal to prepare for and I think this Bulls team was feeling themselves a little too much after their 4-0 start, which included road wins over Temple and Rutgers, as well as a home win over a good Eastern Michigan team. 

Central Michigan has covered 3 straight and 4 of 5 overall, which I think has this line a lot lower than it should be. This is not a good Chippewas team and that's pretty evident by the fact that they lost by 24 at home to Kansas. The 15-point loss to Kentucky looks great on paper, but that game was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Same thing with their 11-point loss last week to Michigan State, as they were trailing 31-3 going into the 4th quarter. 

I think given the talent that Buffalo has offensively and how much Central Michigan has had just picking up first downs (averaging 256 ypg and only 4.0 yards/play), there's no way the Bulls don't win here by double-digits. Give me Buffalo -7.5! 

50* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah St +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Aggies as a small road dog against the Cougars, as I think they win this game outright. Utah State was one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the 2018 season and it’s shown by the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season.

While BYU is also a much-improved team from last year, I think they are still getting a little too much love from that big upset win at Wisconsin. A victory they were very fortunate to get, as the Badgers outgained them by 83 yards and had a 20-14 edge in first downs. More than anything, I think the Cougars caught Wisconsin by surprise and that certainly seems to be the case after how poorly they played against Washington.

I know the schedule has been extremely difficult early on with 4 of their first 5 games coming against Power 5 opponents, but it’s hard to ignore the lackluster offensive numbers for BYU. The Cougars are 103rd in the country in rushing (132 ypg) and 116th in passing (163 ypg). Things could get even tougher on the offense if starting running back Squally Canada can’t go. He leads the team with 335 rushing yards and has accounted for 5 of the 12 touchdowns the BYU offense has managed to score this season.

Utah State has an emerging star at quarterback in Jordan Love, who you might recall torched a very good Michigan State defense for 319 yards earlier this season. This Aggies offense can also attack you on the ground, as they are averaging 5.5 yards/carry and that’s with them only managing 25 yards on 25 attempts in the opener against the Spartans.

The other big thing that will get overlooked is the advantage Utah State has in terms of scheduling. The Aggies will have had essentially two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye, while BYU has just 5 days to prepare for this contest and are coming off a very physical game against an elite Washington team.

Adding to this is the fact that Aggies head coach Matt Wells has gone an impressive 8-2 off a bye as the head coach at Utah State.  BYU on the other hand is a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Friday night and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they had less than 275 yards of total offense. Give me Utah State +3!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10) 

I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation. 

We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri. 

Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston. 

New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start. 

Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Troy -15) 

I'll take my chances here with Troy cashing in a win as a big home favorite. The Trojans have clearly been undervalued by the books following that poor showing against Boise State in Week 1, as they covered 4 straight since that loss. I just don’t feel the number here has been set high enough and a bit surprised to see it drop like it has. It almost feels like people are giving Georgia State way too much respect off that blowout win as a dog in their last game against ULM.

I know the Panthers put up 46 points in that win over the Warhawks, but this is simply not a good offensive team. That was more of a result of just how bad ULM is defensively. Even after that offensive outburst, Georgia State is still ranked a mere 102nd in the country in total offense at just 361.2 ypg.

They are going to find it a lot harder to move the ball against a fast improving Troy defense, that has allowed just 18.5 ppg since giving up 56 in the opener against Boise State. Keep in mind last year the Trojans only allowed 6 points and 307 total yards to the Panthers.

I just don’t see Georgia State being able to score enough to keep this one close. Troy comes in averaging 41.3 ppg and 441 ypg at home. Expect more of the same against an awful Georgia State defense the is allowing 50.0 ppg and 610 ypg on the road. Adding to this, the Panthers are nearly giving up a first down every time the opponent runs a play on the road, as they are allowing 9.2 yards/play away from home.

The other big thing that can’t get overlooked here is how difficult is for the road team to play well in these weekday games on short rest. I believe it’s that much harder when you have a bad team like Georgia State, who simply doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with.

This is also a very young Panthers team that only returned 11 starters and has a true freshman at quarterback, so it’s really asking a lot for this team to keep this within 20 points against a good Troy team that is going to show up in a rare nationally televised game.

It’s also worth noting that Troy is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game in which they scored 42 or more points, while Georgia State is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Trojans -15! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.

The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.

Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.

It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.

The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.

They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Giants +3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Giants getting more than a field goal at home. I just feel the Saints are way overvalued here. New Orleans is lucky to not be 0-3 right now. They lost as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1 to the Bucs, were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home in Week 2 and had to score in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime at Atlanta.

The thing is, New Orleans was super-hyped coming into the season and while they are lucky to be sitting at 2-1, the public won’t be able to help themselves with the Saints laying such a short number against a Giants team that hasn’t looked great.

I just don’t know how you trust this Saints team on the road in this spot. This feels like a must-win game for the Giants and the fact that they are a home dog will only add more fuel to the fire. As for New Orleans, I think that game against the Falcons took a lot out of this team. We just saw Minnesota and Green Bay struggle to play well after their overtime affair and I think it will be a similar struggle for the Saints.

A lackluster offensive showing in Weeks 1-2 really hurt the Giants, but they got on track this past Sunday against the Texans. Eli Manning played his best game of the year, completing 25 of 29 for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie running back Saquan Barkley also had a big impact, rushing for 82 yards and a score, plus had 5 catches for 35 yards.

I think they build on that performance against a struggling Saints defense. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 336.7 ypg. The only reason they aren’t last, is because they got to play the Browns while Tyrod Taylor was still their quarterback. Taylor couldn’t complete a 5-yard pass agains the Jets, yet he went 22 of 30 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Saints.

The Giants defense is unlikely to keep Brees and the Saints offense from scoring, but New Orleans typically isn’t as efficient offensively on the road, especially when the game is played outdoors. I think the Giants will be able to get off the field enough to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but to win it outright. Take New York +3.5!

40* NFL VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Raiders -2.5) 

I'll take my chances laying less than a field goal with the Raiders at home. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Oakland in this spot. The Raiders have no one but themselves to blame for their 0-3 start, but they certainly aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record. This team could easily be 2-1 and I think there’s no way they aren’t more than a field goal favorite in that scenario. Either way, Oakland has to feel like this is a must-win game to keep their season alive.

I also think the hype around the Browns, especially with how good Mayfield looked in his debut, has Cleveland overvalued right now. Yes, the Browns have a good defense and there’s no denying that Mayfield looked like a massive upgrade of Taylor, but that win was against the Jets. I like the direction Cleveland is going, but they are at least a year away from being a team you can count on to deliver away from home.

That’s the biggest thing here for me. As good as Mayfield looked, he was fortunate to not have a couple passes intercepted. Unlike Taylor, who really values the football (arguably too much), Mayfield is going to take chances. I think it’s going to lead to a lot of turnovers and it’s really hard to win in this league when you lose the turnover battle, especially on the road. Let’s also not forget the Jets went into that game with a game-plan for Taylor at quarterback not Mayfield.

The biggest concern here is without a doubt the Raiders offense up against the Browns defense. Cleveland’s stop unit is greatly improved, but they could be down potentially 3 starters in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Christian Kirksey (LB) and Damarious Randall (FS). All of which are listed as questionable on the injury report.

I also think this Raiders offense is poised for a breakout performance. Oakland comes in 28th in the NFL in scoring at 17.3 ppg, but are 6th in the NFL at 400.7 ypg. Derek Carr has Oakland 6th in the league in passing at 302 ypg and they are right in the middle of the pack on the ground (98.7 ypg). Look for this unit to get on track Sunday and don’t be surprised if they aren’t aided by some short fields, which should lead to quick scores and ultimately them covering the spread. Give me the Raiders -2.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way. 

The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8).

As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston.

The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt.

I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover.

Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5!

50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH (Cal +2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Cal as a home dog against the Ducks. I really like this Oregon team and took the unfortunate loss last week in their game against Stanford, but this is not the spot to back the Ducks. I just have a really hard time seeing Oregon bouncing back from that crushing loss to the Cardinal.

The Ducks had a complete meltdown in the 2nd half. They got the ball first and had 1st and 10 on the Stanford 22 on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They lost 13-yards on the next 3 plays and had to punt. After the Cardinal went 3-and-out, Oregon had 1st and goal at the 1, only to fumble a few plays later and watch Stanford returned it 80 yards for a score.

After the Cardinal pulled within 3, the Ducks scored with 4:39 left in the 4th to take a 31-21 lead. They were still up 31-28 with the ball and just 51 seconds on the clock (Stanford had just one time-out left). Oregon inexplicably fumbled the ball on 2nd down and Stanford went 46 yards to kick a field goal to send the game into OT.

There’s not many worse ways to lose than that. Not only do they have to deal with emotionally overcoming that loss, but they have to travel to one of the more difficult places to play in the Pac-12, which is only magnified with this being a prime-time showdown under the lights.

You also have to factor in the huge motivational angle with Cal, who not only wants to continue their perfect start to the season, but is out for revenge. Plus, the Golden Bears have a massive edge in rest and preparation coming off a bye week. All of this is a perfect recipe for Cal to not only win this game outright, but potentially win here going away. Give me the Golden Bears +2.

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Mississippi St -7) 

I'll take my chances here with Mississippi State laying just a touchdown at home against Florida. The Bulldogs come in off a shocking 28-7 loss at Kentucky as a 10-point favorite, while the Gators are off a 47-21 win at Tennessee as a mere 4.5-point favorite. This is one of my favorite spots in terms of value, as we are getting a very average Florida team overvalued off their big cover and a really good Mississippi State team undervalued after laying an egg in their last game. 

Kentucky is clearly better than people thought, but the Bulldogs didn't play anywhere close to their potential in that contest. I think a lot of that has to do with them looking past the Wildcats to this game, as this one has a little extra meaning to it with former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen now at Florida. Keep in mind Mullen wasn't fired, he left the team and the players are going to want to show him he made a mistake. 

More than anything I just think there's a massive gap here in talent and while Florida did win on the road at Tennessee, this is their first real big road test and I think this thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Bulldogs -7! 

50* NCAAF POWER 5 GAME OF THE MONTH (Utah -1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Utes as a short road favorite. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Utes for a lot of reasons. The biggest being that Utah is coming off a bye. The Utes have gone an impressive 20-6 SU and 17-8-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Kyle Whittingham. 

Not only has Utah been great when they get an extra week to prepare for their opponent, but they have been great in the role of the road dog. The Utes are 10-2 ATS over the last 4 seasons as a road underdog. They are also 17-4 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record.

On top of all that, I think this is an ideal bounce back spot for Utah off that loss to Washington and no question this team is going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss at home to the Cougars. As for Washington State, I think they will have a tough time here rebounding from that crushing loss to USC last week. I also don’t think this Cougars team is as good as their 3-1 record would lead you to believe.

I know the offense has looked great to this point, but things are about to get a heck of a lot harder for the Cougars against what I think is an elite Utah defense. The Utes have allowed just 4 touchdowns in 3 games and two of those came with the opposing team getting the ball on their side of the field.

Washington State’s offense is once again a one-dimensional passing attack and that plays right into the strength of this Utah defense. The Utes are No. 1 in the country against the pass, giving up just 93.0 yards/game. Sure that’s aided a bit by their schedule, but they held Washington’s Jake Browning to just 155 yards.

I know Utah’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played a really good defense in Northern Illinois and an elite defense in Washington. I think this will be a breakout game for the Utes offensively, as I’m just not all that impressed with Washington State’s defense. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Utah to win here by a field goal and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Utes -1.5.

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Nebraska +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Nebraska as a 3.5-point home dog. The Cornhuskers couldn’t look any worse to start the season and no one is going to want anything to do with betting this team as a small home dog, especially after how bad they looked against Michigan and how great Purdue played in their win over Boston College.

Much like it was for the Boilermakers last week at home against the Eagles, this is a make or break point of the season for the Cornhuskers after an 0-3 start. Not to mention, no team in the country enjoys getting embarrassed the way that Nebraska did against Michigan. I expect the Cornhuskers to put everything they have into this week of practice and to lay it all on the line in front of their home fans on Saturday.

While this is a big time bounce back spot for Nebraska, this a tough spot for the Boilermakers. Purdue just laid it all on the line in their game against BC and given how bad the Cornhuskers have looked, it would be very easy for the Boilermakers to not take this team seriously.

I know some of it is bad luck, but you also can’t ignore the 0-3 start for Purdue. I also have a hard time trusting this Boilermakers defense on the road. I know they looked great last week at home against the Eagles, but I think BC may have came into that game a little over-confident after their 3-0 start. Keep in mind this is a Purdue defense that only returned 4 starters from last year and typically inexperienced defenses struggle on the road and this is the Boilermakers’ first game away from home this season.

Another thing you have to keep in mind with Nebraska’s 0-3 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule to this point with their 3 games against Colorado, Troy and Michigan. While they are only averaging 19 ppg, their opponents are only giving up 19.9 ppg. Same thing with the defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 37.7 ppg, but that’s against teams that on average are scoring 39.1 ppg.

I just think given the spot and just how much Nebraska needs this game, the value is with the home team, as there is no way the Cornhuskers would have been a dog if you set this line before the season started. Give me Nebraska +3.5!

40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (Pittsburgh +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a double-digit road dog against the Knights. I get the hype around this UCF team, especially after their 3-0 start, but they got no business being this big of a favorite against a decent Power 5 team. This is not the same caliber a Knights team as the one that went undefeated last year. 

Sure they have looked great to start out 2018, but they haven't played anybody. Their 3 wins are around UConn, who is downright awful, FCS foe South Carolina State and FAU, who they beat by 20, but it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Keep in mind they were a 14-point home favorite against FAU and are laying the same number against a Pitt team that is better than people think. 

No way I'm going to pass up with taking the points on the road, but I think there's a decent chance here that Pitt wins this game outright. This Pitt defense is without question the best defense UCF will have faced this season and they are going to come in hungry off a loss at UNC last time out. Note that while UCF is averaging 50 ppg, it's come against teams that on average give up 54.2 ppg. Same thing with the defensive numbers, as their opponents are only averaging 20.4 ppg. Give me the Panthers +13.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Texas Tech +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a home dog. Texas Tech has showed us a lot the last two weeks in their wins over two quality opponents in Oklahoma State and Houston. I know they lost their opener to Ole Miss, but keep in mind starting quarterback McLane Carter was knocked out of the game with an injury in the 1st quarter.

The injury to Carter may have cost them that game against the Rebels, but it might have been a blessing at the same time. It opened the door for true freshman quarterback Alan Bowman, who has looked every bit the part of the next great Texas Tech quarterback. Bowman absolutely torched a decent Houston defense for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns two weeks ago and backed that up with 397 yards and 2 scores on the road against Oklahoma State.

I know the Texas Tech defense has some holes, but holding Oklahoma State to just 17 points is a very promising sign. If they get just a few more stops a game than they have in the past, it’s going to be extremely hard for teams to keep pace with that Red Raiders’ offense. Keep in mind that this was expected to be one of the best defenses Tech has fielded in quite some time, as they had 10 starters back from a unit that made big strides and was T-6th in the country with 29 takeaways.

West Virginia has the dynamic 1-2 punch of quarterback Will Grier and wide out David Sills, but the book is still out on this Mountaineers team. The win over Tennessee doesn’t look near as good after the Vols got routed at home by Florida this past Saturday. There’s also nothing to be excited about with their win over Kansas State, who simply isn’t that great this year.

Texas Tech is without a doubt the more battle-tested team and you also have to factor in this being the first true road game of the season for West Virginia and Jones AT&T Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play, especially when the fan base is excited about their team, which is definitely the case right now.

I also like the revenge angle here for Texas Tech and the fact that they are a home dog. That all but eliminates any possibility of the Red Raiders not being 100% locked in for this game. They also have a bye week on deck, so there’s literally no excuse for them to not lay it all on the line. Give me Texas Tech +4!

40* UCLA/COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (UCLA +10) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA to keep this within the number against the Buffaloes. It's been a difficult start to the season for the Bruins, who are 0-3 under new head coach Chip Kelly. No one wants anything to do with UCLA right now, but I like them in this spot. The Bruins aren't as bad as people think, as they have played about a brutal non-conference schedule so far with their first 3 against Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State, who are a combined 10-1. Colorado is 3-0, but have beat the likes of Colorado St, Nebraska and New Hampshire. They were also very fortunate to beat the Cornhuskers, as Nebraska had a 565 to 395 edge in total yards. It's also worth noting both teams are off a bye. Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre is 1-5 SU off a bye with the Buffaloes and 1-8 SU overall as a head coach. Kelly went 8-2 off a bye in his days with Oregon and I wouldn't be shocked if the Bruins got their first win of 2018. Give me UCLA +10! 

40* UNC/MIAMI NCAAF ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the big number at home. A lot of people jumped off the Miami bandwagon after that ugly 33-17 loss to LSU in Week 1 and I think a lot of those same people will be quick to grab the points with a Tar Heels team that is coming off a solid win over Pitt. Not to mention UNC is getting 7 players back from suspension. Getting guys back is great, but most of those players returning won’t impact this game. 

It turns out that LSU is way better than anyone anticipated and you have to wonder if Miami didn’t go into that opener a little over-confident against a team they thought they would handle. The thing to keep in mind is that Miami came into this season thinking playoffs and with that loss they can’t afford to overlook another opponent. I certainly don’t see them looking past the Tar Heels given how tough UNC has played them of late. Not to mention this being their home opener and the excitement and energy that comes with playing at home in a nationally televised game. This is Miami’s shot to make a statement and get back some of the respect they lost in the defeat to LSU.

I know we don’t know for sure, but I would be shocked if Perry wasn’t the starter for this game. It’s not like he came in and just played a series to get some reps. He replaced Rosier for good in that game and with the offense was clearly better with him on the field. Anytime there’s a big change like this at a key position, especially quarterback, it can light a fire under the entire team and I expect Hard Rock Stadium to be electric.

You also have to look at the defense of North Carolina. The Tar Heels just aren’t very good on that side of the ball. They held Cal to just 24 points, but allowed 41 points and over 500 yards to East Carolina and another 35 points and 400+ yards to Pitt. Miami just has too much talent and speed for UNC to keep them from scoring early and often.

The key here for me, is I don’t see the Tar Heels offense being able to keep pace with what their defense allows. I know they looked good on that side of the ball last week, but this is still the same team that scored a mere 17 points at Cal and 19 at East Carolina. Miami’s defense loves to show off and they are going to be chomping at the bit for this prime time matchup.

Note that when the Hurricanes score a minimum of 28 points they have gone 14-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and won these contests by an average of 28.3 ppg (43.4-15.1). Give me Miami -17.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3) 

*Analysis Coming*