|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-29-22||Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee||6-44||Loss||-110||75 h 46 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats +12.5
I will gladly take my chances with Kentucky as a 12.5-point road dog against Tennessee on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many for the Vols to be laying in this spot. Tennessee has really taken the SEC by storm early on in 2022. The Vols are 7-0 and with their 52-49 win over Alabama, there's plenty of talk about this team being good enough to dethrone Georgia in the SEC East.
Well it just so happens that massive game against the Bulldogs is looming next week. I just have to think given how well it's been going for the Vols, they are going to have a tough time giving Kentucky their full attention in this game. Keep in mind a loss here and a win over Georgia and they are still in the drivers seat to make the SEC title game, as they would hold the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs.
On the flip side of this, I got to believe the Wildcats are going to be jacked up for this game. Let's also not ignore just how close Kentucky is to being undefeated. In their 3-point loss at Ole Miss, they fumbled it away not once but twice in the redzone in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The other loss was to South Carolina, where star quarterback Will Levis didn't play.
On top of all that, Kentucky has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week. We have seen the Vols struggle with what I feel are lessor teams than Kentucky, barely beating Pitt 34-27 and escaping with a 38-33 win over Florida. Neither of which they won the yardage battle. It would not surprise me at all if Kentucky were to pull off the upset. Give me the Wildcats +12.5!
|10-29-22||Missouri +4.5 v. South Carolina||23-10||Win||100||72 h 35 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Missouri Tigers +4.5
I will gladly take the 4.5-points with Missouri on the road against South Carolina. I just feel like this is a great spot to sell-high on the Gamecocks. South Carolina comes into this game having won 4 straight and all the sudden ranked No. 25 in the country. While the Gamecocks are by no means a bad team, I also don't think they one of the 25 best teams in the nation.
South Carolina's 3 non-conference wins are against Georgia State, Charlotte and S Carolina St (FCS). In their two losses they lost by 14 at Arkansas and by 41 at home to Georgia. Their last two wins have come in SEC play, but one of those was against Kentucky without star quarterback Will Levis and the other was last week's win at home over a Texas A&M team that is in shambles.
To me I just think it has the Gamecocks way overvalued here, as I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal against a Missouri team that has flashed some serious potential of late. While the Tigers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and the only win being by a mere 3-points at home against Vandy, They lost by just 3 at Auburn, gave Georgia the scare of a life in a 4-point home loss and lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog at Florida. Missouri has been a dog 3 times in SEC play and covered all 3.
South Carolina hasn't even been a favorite in a single SEC game up to this point. They were 9-point dogs at Arkansas, 25-point dogs at home to Georgia, 4-point dogs at Kentucky without Levis and 3-point dogs at home to Texas A&M. Simply put, they got no business laying more than field goal here. In fact, I like Missouri to win this game outright. Give me the Tigers +4.5!
|10-29-22||Florida +23 v. Georgia||20-42||Win||100||71 h 18 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Gators +23
I'll take my chances with Florida covering as a 23-point dog against Georgia on Saturday. This is one of the bigger rivalries in college football and is held annually on a neutral field. I just feel like given how much this game means to the Gators, easily their biggest game on the schedule coming into this year, there's just too much value to pass up at this price.
You don't want to completely ignore the stats, but I do think they are less of a factor when handicapping a rivalry game of this magnitude. Florida is going to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in this game and while the Gators are just 4-3, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. They also went on the road back in late September and gave Tennessee all they can handle, losing by a final score of 33-38 and outgaining the Vols 594 to 576.
That outcome along is enough reason to think Florida can at the very least keep this within 22 points. The other big thing for me is the magnitude of next week's game against Tennessee for the Bulldogs. That game is shaping up to where the winner will be in the driver seat to represent the East in the SEC title game, while the loser will have to sit and hope that they have done enough to still get invited to the CFB Playoff. Give me the Gators +23!
|10-29-22||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -1||0-48||Win||100||71 h 7 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas State Wildcats -1
I will take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 1-point home favorite against Oklahoma State. A lot of people are going to think the line is off. To them it should be the No. 9 ranked Cowboys who are favored against the No. 22 ranked Wildcats.
I don't think that's the case at all, as I feel this line should be closer to what it opened as with K-State as a 3-point home favorite.
For me it really comes down to the defensive side of the football, where I think the home team has a massive edge in this game. K-State comes into this game giving up just 19.7 ppg and 375 ypg and that's come against teams who average 27.9 ppg and 416 ypg. It's also a defense that is even that much tougher to score on at home, where they are allowing 14.3 ppg, 325 ypg and a mere 4.6 yards/play.
As for Oklahoma State's defense, they are giving up 28.7 ppg and 451 ypg vs teams who on average allow 30.3 ppg and 413 ypg. In the Cowboys last 4 games they have given up 457 total yards to Baylor, 527 total yards to Texas Tech, 510 total yards to TCU and 523 total yards to Texas. I know they have won 3 of those 4 games, but they could just as easily be 1-3 in those games, as the trailed Texas Tech by 9 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and Texas by as many as 14. You just can't make a living winning like this and I just feel like it's going to finally catch up to them against a very hungry K-State team on Saturday. Give me the Wildcats -1!
|10-29-22||Northwestern v. Iowa -11||Top||13-33||Win||100||71 h 7 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa Hawkeyes -11
I'm going to lay the 11-points at home with the Iowa Hawkeyes against the Northwestern Wildcats. A lot of people are probably going to think I'm crazy laying double-digits with an Iowa team that has been one of the worst offensive teams in the country thru the first two months of the season, but I love the Hawkeyes in this matchup with the Wildcats.
I'm not about to sit here and say Iowa's offense is any good, but I do think people overlook just how difficult the schedule has been for the Hawkeyes offense this year. Iowa's last 3 opponents all rank in the Top 5 in the country in total defense for this season. Ohio State being No. 2, Illinois being No. 1 and Michigan being No. 5. They have also faced two other Top 10 defense in Rutgers at No. 7 and Iowa State at No. 9. Not to mention they opened the season against South Dakota State, who is currently the No. 1 ranked team in the country at the FCS level and ranks third in the FCS in total defense.
Northwestern comes into this game ranked 97th in the country in total defense, giving up 410 yards/game. They are also allowing 29.5 ppg and 442.5 ypg in Big Ten play. Keep in mind that's with them holding Penn State to just 17 in a monsoon. The only other team they have held under 31 points this season is Miami (OH).
The Wildcats also feature one of the worst run defenses in the country, giving up a staggering 189 ypg on the season and 222.8 yards/game vs FBS opponents. In the two games this season Iowa has been able to rush for more than 100 yards, they have scored 27 points.
I also think the offense will likely see a full game with Alex Padilla at quarterback. Padilla replaced starter Spencer Petras in the loss to Ohio State. Petras has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks I can remember. Not saying Padilla is the answer, but Iowa's offense desperately needed a change under center.
With all that said about this potentially being a breakout game for Iowa's offense, I believe the Hawkeyes could win and cover this spread with their defense alone. Iowa's defense is special. For them to be giving up 16.1 ppg, 278 ypg and 4.1 yards/play with how bad that offense has been is truly remarkable. The Hawkeyes should make life a living hell for a Northwestern offense that hasn't been much better than Iowa's in 2022. Wildcats are only scoring 18.6 ppg.
This is also a Northwestern offense that has struggled to take care of the football. The Wildcats have a staggering 17 turnovers in 6 games and have turned it over at least 2 times in all 6 games. Not many defenses in the country who are better at creating turnovers than Iowa's. This to me has blowout written all over it. Give me Iowa -11!
|10-29-22||TCU v. West Virginia +7.5||41-31||Loss||-110||68 h 58 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5
I will gladly take my chances with West Virginia cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against No. 7 ranked TCU. Most are going to feel like this is a short number to be laying with the Horned Frogs, as TCU comes into this game a perfect 7-0, while the Mountaineers just embarrassed in a 48-10 loss at Texas Tech this past Saturday as a mere 5-point dog.
This to me is all about the spot. On one hand we should have a hungry and highly motivated West Virginia team looking to bounce back from their worst showing of the season. On the other hand we have a TCU team that has to be running on fumes right now. The Horned Frogs just finished up a 4-game stretch, where every team they played at the time of the game were ranked in the Top 20 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St and Kansas St).
They also are coming off two exhausing come from behind wins in their last two games. Two weeks ago TCU was able to erase a 17-point deficit to force OT and eventually beat Oklahoma State 43-40. Last week they trailed K-State by 18-points before rallying to win 38-28.
I think it's going to be tough for them to not suffer a letdown here against West Virginia, especially after how bad the Mountaineers looked last week. Thing is, Morgantown is no easy place to play. Just ask Baylor, who lost at West Virginia a few weeks back.
TCU has also not been nearly as impressive away from home. While the Horned Frogs are 3-0 SU on the road, they are getting outgained on average 455 to 451 away from home and those 3 games have come against Colorado, SMU and Kansas.
I'm confident J.T. Daniels and the West Virginia offense will be able to score enough to keep this close enough to cover and maybe even win outright. Give me the Mountaineers +7.5!
|10-27-22||Utah v. Washington State +7.5||Top||21-17||Win||100||56 h 5 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Washington State +7.5
I'll take my chances with Washington State cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against the Utes in Thursday's Pac-12 action. I just feel like this is way too many points for Utah be laying on the road in a prime time game. Pullman is no easy place to play for opposing teams. Cougars have covered 3 straight at home vs Utah, winning two of those outright.
The game that really stands out to me is their home game against Oregon back on 9/24. Washington State would end up losing that game 41-44, but should have won outright. The Cougars were up 34-22 with less than 5 minutes to play and had never trailed before Oregon scored 3 times in less than 3 minutes to steal the win. Given what the Ducks have done to every other team since that ugly loss to Georgia, that performance tells you a lot about this Cougars team.
I really think it speaks volumes to their defense. Because they ended up giving up 44, people overlook that Oregon had just 22 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It's really hard to run on this Washington State front and their passing game on offense should be able to exploit a struggling Utah secondary. This is also not the same dominant front we have grown accustomed to with the Utes, as they are giving up 143 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry on the ground. Give me Washington State +7.5!
|10-23-22||Jets v. Broncos -1||16-9||Loss||-110||73 h 46 m||Show|
8* NFL Public Money ATS SHOCKER: Denver Broncos -1
You might think I'm crazy backing the Broncos with how they have struggled of late, but I just can't help myself here with Denver basically at a pick'em in this one. Just a few weeks ago this line would have been pushing a touchdown. Now after the Jets big road win over Green Bay and Denver coming off another awful offensive showing on MNF, the line has been way over-adjusted.
The one thing that is getting way overlooked with this Denver team is their defense. The Broncos have held 5 of their 6 opponents this season to fewer than 20 points and yet are just 2-4 in those games. I think their defense and playing at home is enough to carry them to a win in this game.
I also think as bad as the Broncos offense has been, there have been some flashes of what they could become. This will never be the elite offense we all expected when Denver landed Wilson in the trade with Seattle, but I'm confident it won't continue to be as bad as it's been.
The Jets have went from being a team everyone thought was terrible to now having to play with expectations. That can be a difficult thing to do and it would not surprise me in the least if New York laid an egg in this game. Keep in mind this is their second straight game on the road and 3rd time in the last 4 weeks they are playing on the road. Not to mention they got a big home game against their hated rivals in New England looming on deck next week. Give me the Broncos -1!
|10-23-22||Lions +7 v. Cowboys||6-24||Loss||-110||70 h 39 m||Show|
9* NFL - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Detroit Lions +7
I like the value with the Lions catching a full 7-points on the road against the Cowboys. I just feel like Dallas is coming into this game way overpriced because of Dak's return from injury. Everyone is just assuming that the Cowboys are going to be better because he's back, but I gotta see it to believe it. The offense did not look good with him in Week 1 and it was like they ran a completely different offense with Cooper Rush. They just try to force the pass too much with Dak.
I also don't love the spot for Dallas, as they put in a lot to last week's big division showdown with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. While the Cowboys' could be a bit flat, we should get an A+ effort from the Lions in this one. Detroit is coming off of their bye week and should be extremely motivated given they went into their bye with a 29-0 loss at New England.
The offense did play well against the Patriots, but they were without Swift and star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing at less than 100%. Both are expected to be on the field Sunday.
Detroit is a team that also just doesn't go away and have thrived in this spot under head coach Campbell. Lions are 9-2 ATS under Campbell as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me Detroit +7!
|10-23-22||Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders||21-23||Loss||-110||69 h 27 m||Show|
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Green Bay Packers -4.5
I might be kicking myself tomorrow afternoon after this game gets going, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Packers laying less than a touchdown at Washington. This is a bad Commanders team that is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball. Forget about the Packers offensive struggles for a second. Green Bay is giving up just 299 total yards per game.
Simply put, this is a big time buy-low spot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost 2 straight games. First it was the 2nd half collapse against the Giants in London, then it was an absolutely brutal showing at home against the Jets. If this team is anything close to what we thought coming into the year, they should respond in a big way in this game.
I know they failed in this spot last week after their loss to the Giants, but it's worth noting that the Packers are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss. Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS last 10 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS last 5 (doesn't happen often) when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Packers -4.5!
|10-23-22||Giants v. Jaguars -3||Top||23-17||Loss||-110||70 h 40 m||Show|
10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here.
That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize.
New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20.
I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3!
|10-22-22||Minnesota v. Penn State -4||Top||17-45||Win||100||53 h 6 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions -4
I will gladly take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Gophers on Saturday. This to me is a great time buy-low on Penn State after last week's embarrassing 17-41 loss at Michigan, where they allowed the Wolverines to run for 418 yards. You can bet it was not a fun week of practice for the Nittany Lions leading up to this game. I'm confident we are going to get an A+ effort here from Penn State at home, especially with this being a prime time game under the lights.
I also think this Minnesota team is a good fade right now. The Gophers have been way overpriced in their last two games. They lost 10-20 as a 8.5-point home favorite against Purdue and then coming out of their bye they lost 14-26 at Illinois as a 6-point favorite. Note that game against the Illini wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Illinois outgained them 563-269.
I just don't see how that Gophers offense will be able to go on the road under the lights against a motivated Penn State team and keep this close. Keep in mind prior to giving up all those yards on the ground against Michigan, the Nittany Lions had been great against the run. If you can slow down Minnesota's run game, there's really not much their offense can do. I think this line at the least should be a touchdown. Give me Penn State -4!
|10-22-22||West Virginia v. Texas Tech -6||Top||10-48||Win||100||49 h 36 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -6
I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech covering the 6-point spread at home against West Virginia. This to me is a great spot to buy-low on the Red Raiders after back-to-back road losses to K-State and Oklahoma State. Not to mention Texas Tech is coming off of their bye week, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for this game. It's also a good sell-high spot on the Mountaineers after their big upset win over Baylor.
I just don't see West Virginia going on the road and making a game of it with how much their defense has struggled to get off of the field. The Mountaineers come into this game giving up 44.3 ppg, 486 ypg and 7.5 yards/play in Big 12 play. They have been absolutely torched thru the air, as opposing QBs are completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 10.4 yards/attempt.
That defense will be up against a Texas Tech offense that is putting up 44.3 ppg and 518 ypg at home this season. Red Raiders' offense is built around a potent passing attack that comes in completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 365 ypg. Texas Tech is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents on average by almost 20 ppg. Give me Texas Tech -6!
|10-22-22||Duke +9 v. Miami-FL||45-21||Win||100||46 h 10 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils +9
I'm going to take the 9-points with Duke on the road against Miami. I've had a lot of success backing the Blue Devils this season. I'm a perfect 3-0 when backing Duke this year and have not went against them.
Expectations couldn't have been much lower on the Blue Devils coming into this season. Most had Duke as one of, if not, the worst teams in the ACC and their season win total was set at just 3. They have already surpassed their win total, as they come into this game 4-3 and could very easily be 5-1. They lost in OT at Georgia Tech and gave up a late TD drive in a 35-38 loss to UNC last week.
You really have to tip your cap to first year head coach Mike Elko, who came over after spending the last 3 years as the DC at Texas A&M. Elko inherited a defense that was awful in 2021, giving up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg and has them allowing just 22.3 ppg and 402 ypg thru 7 games.
New offensive coordinator Kevin Johns also deserves some love. Duke finished last year averaging just 22.8 ppg. They are scoring 32.9 ppg, putting up 435 yards/game and averaging 6.5 yards/play. They have gotten much better QB play than last year and are running the ball extremely well. Duke is averaging 5.5 yards/carry, a full yard better than what their opponents are giving up on average.
So while this team is greatly improved on both sides of the ball, I believe they remained way undervalued in the market because of just how low expectations were. It also helps they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4.
It's the exact opposite for Miami, who has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in 2022. Miami was ranked No. 16 in the country to open the season. They climbed to No. 13 after a couple cupcake wins to open the season vs Bethune and Southern Miss. They have lost 3 of their last 4 since with the only win coming by 6 against a bad Virginia Tech team. They are just 1-5 ATS, which includes a shocking 31-45 loss at home to Middle Tennessee as a 26-point favorite.
I really feel like when you dive into the numbers for these teams, there's just not a lot that separates these two. If anything you could argue Duke has been better. Blue Devils are +0.6 yards/play better than what their opponents allow -0.1 yards/play worse on defense. Miami is -0.1 yards/play worse on offense and -0.2 yards/play worse on defense. Give me Duke +9!
|10-22-22||Syracuse +13.5 v. Clemson||21-27||Win||100||46 h 40 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Syracuse Orange +13.5
I'll take my chances with Syracuse as a 13.5-point road dog against Clemson. I'm well aware that the Orange are going to be the public side in this game and rarely will you find me backing a public dog, but there are certain instances where I think it's acceptable.
To me I just feel like this line is not so much the books trying to beg you take Syracuse, but more of a tax bettors are being forced to pay on Clemson right now. The Tigers are a massive public team and simply put, there's going to be premium on them when they are playing well and Clemson comes into this game 7-0 SU, ranked #5 in the country and off 3 straight covers.
Syracuse is 6-0 and ranked No. 14 in the country, but the big difference with them is they came into this season with almost no expectations. We saw just how little the market respected this team last week, when they were 5-0, ranked #18 and just a 2.5-point home favorite against a NC State team that was down starting quarterback Devin Leary.
I just think when you really look at the numbers, there's no reason for Clemson to be laying double-digits in this matchup. The Tigers are scoring 38.6 ppg vs teams that give up 28.0, which is a +10.6 above average. They are giving up 19.7 ppg vs teams that average 25.5 ppg. They are gaining 6.0 yards/play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards/play.
Syracuse is scoring 36.0 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 30.0 ppg. They are allowing 13.2 ppg vs teams that score 21.4 ppg. Orange are gaining 6.6 yards/play and allowing 4.6 yards/play.
Keep in mind these two teams have played a very similar strength in schedule to this point. We have seen Syracuse give Clemson trouble in the past when they are going well and as crazy as it might sound, I think they can win this game outright. Give me the Orange +13.5!
|10-22-22||Houston -3 v. Navy||38-20||Win||100||46 h 38 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Houston Cougars -3
I'm going to lay the 3-points with Houston on the road against Navy. I've bet against the Cougars a decent amount so far and a big reason for that is I thought they were way overvalued coming into the year. This to me feels like a fair price on Houston and I just love the spot for them.
Last time we saw the Cougars they had a miraculous 33-32 win at Memphis. After trailing by double-digits the majority of the game, Houston scored 2 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of regulation (think Jets vs Browns in Week 2 of the NFL).
That's a win that will get everyone on the same page and it just so happened to come right before their bye week. This has to feel like a defining point of their season. I would be shocked if we didn't get the best the Cougars have to offer in this game.
The other big thing with the bye is that it allowed them 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's triple-option. They have also played Navy each of the last 7 years, so it's not quite a shock to the system like it is for other teams.
Navy has covered each of their last 4 games, but they were getting double-digits in 3 of them and the other was +4.5 at home vs Tulsa. I just don't trust that defense for the Midshipen. They are giving up 6.4 yards/play and are getting torched thru the air with opposing QBs completing 66.3% of their attempts with a 9.7 average. Houston's Clayton Tune just threw for 366 and 3 scores in their win over Memphis. Would definitely lean OVER as well in this game. Give me Houston -3!
|10-22-22||Iowa +30 v. Ohio State||10-54||Loss||-110||46 h 37 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS MASSACRE: Iowa Hawkeyes +30
I will take my chances with Iowa as a massive 30-point underdog against Ohio State on Saturday. As bad as the Hawkeyes are offensively, this is too many points for them to be catching in this matchup. I'm not so sure it's even a lock that the Buckeyes score 30 points in this game.
That's how good this Iowa defense is. The Hawkeyes come into this game allowing just 9.8 ppg. Sure the schedule hasn't been overly tough, but those teams on average are scoring 23.2 ppg. The Hawkeyes are holding their opponents on average 14 points below what those teams typically score. If they can replicate that, that would put Ohio State down to like 35 points from their 48.8 average.
That means all we would need is a mere 7-points from Iowa to get the cover. Ohio State's defense is good, but they are giving up 15.7 ppg. If Iowa can get to that mark (16), it would take 47+ from the Buckeyes for us to lose.
I also think you got to look at how well Iowa played in their game against Michigan, especially in comparison to what we just saw the Wolverines do to Penn State this past Saturday. Iowa held Michigan to just 27 points and 327 total yards. The same Michigan offense that just had 41 points and 563 total yards against the Nittany Lions.
It probably isn't going to be pretty and we may need the backdoor to be open, but I feel good about Iowa keeping this within the number. Give me the Hawkeyes +30!
|10-17-22||Broncos +5 v. Chargers||16-19||Win||100||22 h 58 m||Show|
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Broncos +5
I'll take my chances with the Broncos catching 5-points on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Denver in this game. The Broncos haven't even come close to resembling the team that we expected to see when they landed Russell Wilson in a trade this past offseason.
As bad as the offense has looked, I don't think it's in as bad a shape as what it's being made out to be. Denver has actually moved the ball well at times. They are gaining 343.6 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They have just been historically bad whenever they get in the red zone. They simply can't have that bad of luck in the red zone the rest of the way and I think this has the potential to be a breakout game for them.
The Chargers defense has not been playing well at all of late. In LA's last 3 games, they are giving up a staggering 30.0 ppg and 400.7 ypg. The bigger thing to note is that the struggles have come against the likes of the Jaguars, Texans and Browns.
On the other side of the ball, LA's offense has one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, but he's playing behind a banged up offensive line that has struggled some since losing starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. Denver has some pass rushers that should be able to exploit that o-line and one of the better secondaries in the game. Broncos are only giving up 177 passing yards/game.
Division games have a way of coming down to the wire and I see this being one of those games that isn't decided until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. That makes Denver an easy play for me catching north of a field goal. Give me the Broncos +5!
|10-16-22||Bills v. Chiefs +3||24-20||Loss||-120||89 h 4 m||Show|
9* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas City Chiefs +3
I will take the Chiefs as a 3-point home dog against the Bills in arguably the most anticipated regular-season game of the year after what took place last January between these two teams in the playoffs.
All you are going to hear this week is about how Buffalo is going to get their revenge on KC after letting one get away in their 36-42 OT loss to the Chiefs. The biggest talking point being the Bills allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal with just 13 seconds to work with.
What people are quick to forget in that game is the Chiefs had a 23-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. KC outgained the Bills 552 to 422. Not to mention Buffalo got as good a game out of a WR as you could have with Gabe Davis catching 8 passes for 201 yards and 4 scores.
I just don't see KC letting Davis beat them over the top in this one. I also think that while the Chiefs secondary hasn't been great at times, KC's getting back stud rookie corner Trent McDuffie for this game and their pass rush compared to last year is vastly improved.
I also think that for as much as Buffalo wants to win this game, the same could be said for Kansas City. All you have heard all offseason and thru the first 5 weeks is how good this Bills team is. How they are the team to beat and how Josh Allen is a lock for MVP.
I don't think it's sat well with this team at all and there's no question that Patrick Mahomes takes notes on what people say. As good as Allen is, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he'll do everything in his power to get them a win in this game. I think getting a field goal at home is too good to pass up. Give me the Chiefs +3!
|10-16-22||Panthers +10.5 v. Rams||Top||10-24||Loss||-120||89 h 53 m||Show|
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5
I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers.
All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team.
As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball.
I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker.
On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore.
They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5!
|10-16-22||Cardinals v. Seahawks +3||Top||9-19||Win||100||89 h 51 m||Show|
10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3
I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith.
If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot.
I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd.
As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot.
I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team.
I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3!
|10-16-22||Bucs v. Steelers +9.5||18-20||Win||100||86 h 4 m||Show|
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5
I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a 9.5-point home dog against the Buccaneers. Great time to buy low on Pittsburgh, who is just 1-4 and fresh off an ugly 38-3 loss at Buffalo last week. We should get a big time effort from the Steelers after that awful showing. I also don't think you can overreact to that loss, given just how good the Bills are.
If you remember back to MNF in Week 2, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Titans 41-7. Everyone was saying how bad Tennessee was and the Titans have since won 3 straight games.
As ugly as the final score was, 3-points was as bad as Pittsburgh could have done. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards. The Steelers offense had the ball inside the Bills 40-yard line 6 times on their first 9 drives and only came away with 3 points. They turned it over on downs twice, missed two field goals and had another drive end in an interception. They also had another drive late in the 4th quarter where they got in the red zone and turned it over on downs.
I don't think people who don't follow this team closely really understand how much better this offense is with Pickett instead of Mitch Trubisky.
I also don't think the defense is as bad it showed in that game. They just had no answer for Josh Allen and that passing attack. Buffalo had 5 different receivers log a catch of 26 or more yards. Gabe Davis had a 98-yard and a 62-yard TD catch.
Yes, it's Tom Brady on the other side this week, but this is not the same potent Tampa Bay offense that they have been the last two years. It's been better of late, but still lacks explosion. It's a lot of dink and dunk right now. Leonard Fournette led the team with 10 receptions and 83 yards last week. That's also not a very good Atlanta defense.
Really the only time this offense has shown us anything is in Week 4 in a 31-41 loss at home to the Chiefs. Big thing to note about that is the Chiefs were up 38-17 in the final minute of the 4th quarter
I just think when you factor in how motivated Pittsburgh will be, how underrated the offense is coming into this game, the Bucs not being an offensive juggernaut and how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, you have to roll the dice with the Steelers at this price. Give me Pittsburgh +9.5!
|10-16-22||Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts||27-34||Loss||-110||86 h 56 m||Show|
9* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
I will gladly take the 2.5-points with the Jaguars in Sunday's road game against the Colts. I just don't know what Indianapolis has done to deserve to be favored in this spot. These two teams played back in Week 2 at Jacksonville and the Jaguars completely dominated that matchup from start to finish. Jacksonville won the game 24-0, with their defense limiting Indy to just 218 yards and 9 first downs.
The key here is we are catching the Jags in a massive buy-low spot after last week's shocking 6-13 home loss to the Texans as a 7-point favorite. No one (including myself) was giving Houston any shot in that game. Needless to say the Jags burned a lot of people last week, whether they laid the big number on the spread, teased Jacksonville down to a near pick'em or backed them in survivor.
The narrative has gone from this might be one of the surprise teams in the NFL to this is a team who overachieved early and is now showing it's true colors.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I still think this is a pretty good football team. They outgained the Texans 422 to 248. Scoring just 6 points was the worst possible outcome given how well they moved the ball. You just have to wonder if there was not only a lack of respect given to Houston, but also a bit of a letdown coming off that tough loss at Philly the week before.
Going back to the Colts. It's a miracle Indy isn't coming into this game at 0-5 and yet they are 2-2-1. Indy trailed 3-20 going into the 4th quarter and managed to pull out a 20-20 tie against the Texans in Week 1. The Chiefs couldn't have played any worse against the Colts in Week 3 and it still took a TD in the final seconds for Indy to win that game 20-17. If KC doesn't have an awful backup kicker they lose that game. Then there's last week's 12-9 OT win against the Broncos, which I'm sure most of you saw as it was the Thursday Night Football matchup. Denver gave that game to them in on silver platter.
What's made the Colts so bad is the horrific play they are getting out of their offensive line. Indy's front five hasn't shown the ability to pass protect or run block. They tried to switch up the starting unit against the Broncos and it was just as bad as before. It's not getting any better and I just don't see how you can expect them to move this ball against this Jags defense. In their first meeting, the Jaguars sacked Matt Ryan 5 times and held Indy to just 54 yards rushing. Give me Jacksonville +2.5!
|10-15-22||North Carolina v. Duke +7||38-35||Win||100||99 h 49 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Duke Blue Devils +7
I will gladly take my chances with Duke catching 7-points at home against the Tar Heels. I really think the Blue Devils have a legit shot of winning this game outright. I just don't think North Carolina is as good as their 5-1 record. They were a 2-point conversion away from having to go OT against App State after going into the 4th quarter leading 41-21. They trailed Georgia State 21-28 in the 2nd half of a 35-28 win and last week somehow managed to hold on for a 27-24 win at Miami, despite getting outgained 538-470.
Sure, the offense is great and quarterback Drake Maye is really good, but a lot of those numbers are a result of their defense. Just as quickly as the Tar Heels are scoring, their defense is giving it right back up on the other side. UNC is giving up 32.0 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.1 yards/play. That jumps to 37.7 ppg, 536 ypg and 6.8 yards/play on the road.
It's hard to go on the road and blowout a quality team like Duke when your defense struggles to get stops. I also don't think people realize just how good this Blue Devils team is. First year head coach Mike Elko isn't getting the props he deserves. Duke won just 3 games last year and are 4-2 with their two losses coming by 8-points at Kansas and by 3 at Georgia Tech.
Elko was a long-time defensive coordinator and has made his presence felt on that side of the ball. Duke is giving up just 19.7 ppg and 380 ypg, which is truly remarkable when you consider the Blue Devils returned just 5 starters from a defense that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg last year.
Another reason for Duke's success is they appear to have found a legit starting quarterback in sophomore Riley Leonard. He's completing 66.3% of his attempts with a 8-3 TD-INT ratio. He's also rushed for 289 yards and 4 scores. This offense should have no problem moving the ball in this game. If the defense can get some stops early, they could be in control of this game the entire way. Give me Duke +7!
|10-15-22||USC v. Utah -3||Top||42-43||Loss||-118||99 h 40 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Utah Utes -3
I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with No. 20 Utah as they host No. 7 USC. The fact that the Trojans are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and are getting points against a lessor ranked team is enough on it's own to roll the dice with the Utes. The books are begging the public to take USC and they are doing so at close to a 65% clip. More times than not in a game of this magnitude, you want to fade the public.
Not that I don't think USC is a good team and a program that is very soon going to be a consistent playoff contender under head coach Lincoln Riley. I just think people are jumping the gun a little bit with this team.
Just look at the last 3 games for this team. USC needed a late TD to escape with a 17-14 win at Oregon State, they only led Arizona State 21-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and were only up 3 on Washington State midway thru the 3rd quarter.
Utah comes into this season with some lofty expectations, as a lot of people were picking this team to go undefeated and make the playoffs. The Utes have got a good taste of humble pie early on. They lost a heartbreaker in their opener at Florida 26-29 and then last week lost 32-42 at UCLA.
While it's early, a loss here would really put the Utes behind the 8-ball in getting to the Pac-12 title. They would be 2-games back in the loss column to USC, Oregon and UCLA and would lose the tie-breaker to both the Trojans and Bruins.
I have a lot of trust in Kyle Whittingham's team to step up and deliver a big win at home with their backs against the ball. Utah is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year and are now 18-1 SU at home over the last 3+ seasons. Give me the Utes -3!
|10-15-22||Stanford +17 v. Notre Dame||16-14||Win||100||98 h 7 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Stanford Cardinal +17
I can't help myself but to take the 17-points with Stanford on the road against Notre Dame. I know the Cardinal are just 1-4 with their only win coming in their very first game of the season against Colgate, but I'm not sure there's a team out there that has played a tougher schedule thru 5 games than this team.
After their game against Colgate, they had to host USC and then play back-to-back road games against Washington and Oregon. They then lost at home to Oregon State, where they should have won outright. Stanford led 24-10 going into the 4th quarter and gave up a 56-yard TD pass with 13 seconds left to lose 27-28.
I'm not saying I think the Cardinal are going to go into South Bend and pull off the upset, I just feel that 17 is way too many for Notre Dame to be laying. The Irish are a good, but not great team.
I think the assumption here is that Notre Dame will be able to move the ball at will against this Stanford defense. I don't know if that will be the case. While the Cardinal are giving up 32.8 ppg, that's because of their schedule. Stanford's opponents on the season are averaging 33.1 ppg. Notre Dame is only scoring 25.6 ppg vs teams that on average give up 22.5 ppg.
Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee is also one of the better signal callers no one is talking about. He's completed 64% of his attempts for over 1,200 yards with 10 TDs to 5 IT and has a 7-2 TD-INT ratio over his last 3 games. Notre Dame has forced a whopping 2 TOs all season. Give me Stanford +17!
|10-15-22||Nebraska v. Purdue -13||37-43||Loss||-110||80 h 13 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Purdue Boilermakers -13
I got no problem laying the 13-points at home with Purdue against Nebraska. I've been on the Boilermakers quite a bit early on this year and I just think there's a big enough gap in talent between these two teams that it's just not asking a lot for Purdue to win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.
What have we seen out of Nebraska to think they can make a game of this? The Cornhuskers are 2-1 in Big Ten play, but have played 3 of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern, Indiana and Rutgers. The best team Nebraska has played is Oklahoma and they lost 14-49 to the Sooners on their home field. A loss that looks a lot a worse now than it did then, especially with how bad Oklahoma's defense has been the past couple of weeks.
It certainly won't be easy for Nebraska's offense in this matchup. Purdue comes in allowing 22.0 ppg and 328 ypg and have done so against teams averaging 29.5 ppg and 407 ypg.
This is also a Purdue offense that is scoring 32.5 ppg on 420 ypg against teams that allow 24.3 ppg and 360 ypg. Nebraska is giving up 29.3 ppg and 449 ypg vs teams that average 24.9 ppg and 386 ypg.
I just don't think people realize how good this Purdue team. The Boilermakers are two last second TD drives away from being 6-0. Penn State scored a TD with 57 seconds left to defeat Purdue 35-31 and Syracuse connected on a 25-yard TD pass with 7 seconds left to win 32-29. Give me the Boilermakers -13!
|10-15-22||NC State v. Syracuse -3||9-24||Win||100||77 h 38 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Syracuse Orange -3
I got no problem laying a mere 3-points at home with No. 18 Syracuse against No. 15 NC State. I'm shocked that more than 60% of the tickets are coming in on the Wolfpack in this one. Syracuse is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS thru their first 5 games. While it's not come against the most difficult of schedules, their win at home over Purdue is impressive. They also have a 31-7 blowout win at home over Louisville. Keep in mind this was a team a lot of people had pegged to finish last in the ACC Atlantic. Books can be a bit slow to adjust on these historically bad programs that have a breakout season.
Not only that, but I think NC State is a bit overvalued. The Wolfpack opened the season ranked No. 13 and were a lot of people's darkhorse to win the ACC. They were extremely lucky to win 21-20 at ECU in Week 1, they were outgained 353-270 in a win over Texas Tech, trailed Clemson 13-30 late in the 4th quarter before a garbage TD made the final score 20-30. Last week they were outgained 387 to 307 at home by Florida State in a 19-17 win (trailed 17-3).
With how big that game was at Clemson and then having to fight and claw their way to a win last week against Florida State, this has flat spot written all over it for NC State, especially with how tough Syracuse is at home when they are playing well.
This is also a well rested and prepared Orange team, as they had a bye last week and the week before had basically a scrimmage game at home against Wagner (won 59-0). If it wasn't for Clemson being on deck, this would probably be a 10* Top Play, but I'm confident there will be no looking ahead for Syracuse. Give me the Orange -3!
|10-15-22||Minnesota -6 v. Illinois||14-26||Loss||-110||73 h 44 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Golden Gophers -6
The simple fact that we have an unranked Minnesota team favored on the road against No. 24 Illinois should be enough to have you strongly considering backing the Gophers. It would be one thing for Minnesota to be a 2-3 point favorite, but pushing a TD makes this one of the more head-scratching lines on the board this Saturday.
This tells me the books not only think the Gophers win this game, but they are pretty confident it isn't going to be close. I'm with them. I've made a ton of money backing Illinois this year, but this is a really tough spot for the Illini.
Not only are they coming off two huge wins, they are dealing with a ton of injuries. It's unlikely starting quarterback Tommy DeVito will be back for this game and there's a pretty noticeable drop off from him and backup Artur Sitkowski. They also figure to be missing wideout Isaiah Williams, whose 38 receptions are 16 more than the next best guy.
With the gas tank on empty and down some really big pieces, I think this has the potential to be ugly. Minnesota is going to be a pissed off bunch coming into this game. Not only are the Gophers coming off a bye, the last time they played was that ugly 10-20 loss at home to Purdue. I don't think it was a fun two weeks of practice for this team, which I still think has the potential to be the best team in the Big Ten West.
They also will not be overlooking this Illinois team after last year's 6-14 loss at home to the Illini as a 14.5-point favorite.
It's also worth noting that Minnesota didn't have star running back Mohamed Ibrahim for that game against Purdue. He's expected to be back for this matchup.
I just think with how hard it's going to be for Illinois to put up points, it's really not asking a lot of the Gophers to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -6!
|10-15-22||Penn State +7 v. Michigan||Top||17-41||Loss||-110||91 h 47 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions +7
I love the value here with No. 10 Penn State catching a full 7-points on the road against No. 5 Michigan. I'm shocked this line isn't closer to a field goal. Both of these teams are undefeated. Nittany Lions are 5-0 and the Wolverines are 6-0.
I'm not saying Michigan isn't a really good team, I just don't think they are as good as the team from last year that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. That team had to rally from behind in the final minutes of the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 21-17 last year.
Wolverines couldn't have played an easier non-conference schedule with games against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn. They have since gone 3-0 in Big Ten play, but only got by Maryland by 7 at home. They beat Iowa 27-14 on the road, but that's a Hawkeyes team that is historically bad offensively. Last week they beat Indiana 31-10, but that was a 10-10 game midway thru the 3rd quarter.
Penn State was every bit as impressive as Michigan in non-conference, beating Ohio 46-10, Central Michigan 33-14 and going on the road and beating Auburn 41-12. They also won 35-31 at Purdue, who I think is better than all 3 of the Big Ten teams Michigan has played thus far.
The Nittany Lions did just squeak by Northwestern 17-7 as a 25-point favorite last time out, but that was played in awful conditions and the offense turned it over 5 times. It was also two weeks ago. Penn State had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this game.
I give the Nittany Lions a real shot at winning this game, but at the very least I think this a one score game in the 4th quarter. Give me Penn State +7!
|10-12-22||UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall||Top||23-13||Win||100||28 h 15 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: UL-Lafayette +10.5
I love the 10.5 with Lafayette in Wednesday's stand alone college football matchup. This being the only football game on the board, the books know this will be a heavily bet game. They also know the public will likely be looking to back Marshall, as that's a team the public remembers going on the road and beating then No. then No. 8 Notre Dame 26-21 as a 20.5-point dog. As a result I think we are seeing the Herd way overpriced in this matchup.
Louisiana-Lafayette is just 2-3 and comes into this game having lost 3 in a row. However, they are far from a pushover. You could make a case that the Ragin-Cajuns' are a few plays away from being 5-0. They trailed Rice 14-19 going into the 4th quarter, led 17-7 in a 17-21 loss at ULM and lost on a last second field goal to South Alabama.
They come into this game last in the Sun Belt West at 0-2 in league play. They have to be feeling like their season is on the line in this game. Hard to not like an underrated dog that feels like it's back against the wall.
I'm also don't think Marshall is as good as what people think. Yes, the win over Notre Dame was impressive, but given what we have seen out of both the Irish and the Herd since that game, you got to think Notre Dame coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Ohio State in Week 1 had a little something to do with how that game played out. If this team was that good, they wouldn't have followed that game up with a 31-34 loss at Bowling Green (favored by 17) and a 7-16 loss to Troy, where they didn't go over 100 yards passing or rushing in the game.
Let's also not ignore that upset of Notre Dame is their only win over another FBS team. Their other two wins are against Norfolk State and Gardner Webb.
It's also worth pointing out that Marshall's style of play isn't really built to blow teams out. They are a run-first offense and are very sound defensively. The fewer the possessions the more valuable the 10.5 points become. Turnovers could also be huge in this game. Ragin Cajuns' have forced at least 2 takeaways in all 5 of their games. Give me Lafayette +10.5!
|10-09-22||Eagles -5 v. Cardinals||20-17||Loss||-110||75 h 40 m||Show|
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Philadelphia Eagles -5
Laying points on the road with a public favorite is typically a recipe for disaster in the NFL, but there's no way I'm not betting the Eagles laying less than a touchdown against the Cardinals I jus don't think Arizona is any good. I think for every great play Kyler Murray makes he makes 9 average plays. He also doesn't seem to show up early in games.
I certainly don't think that Arizona offense is going to be able to do much against this Eagles defense. Philly comes in giving up just 17.8 ppg, but I think they are even better than that. They gave up 35 in Week 1 to the Lions, but most of that came in garbage time. Eagles led 31-14 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held a good Vikings offense to 7 points and gave up 8 in Week 3 to the Commanders (was 24-2 with less than 2 minutes to play). Last week they gave up 21 to the Jags, but 7 of those were from a pick six and Jacksonville had just 1 offensive TD midway thru the 4th quarter of that game.
Even if Arizona's defense plays well, which I think is unlikely, I don't think their offense will do enough to cover. Cardinals defense has looked better the last 3 weeks after giving up 44 in their opener to the Chiefs, but their last 3 games have come against an AWFUL Panthers offense, struggling Rams offense and an underachieving Raiders offense.
Philly's offense probably isn't as good as it's performed so far, but it's still one of the better offenses in the league. I would not be surprised if Hurts and company behind that great offensive line put up a big number in this one. Give me the Eagles -5!
|10-09-22||Lions v. Patriots -3||0-29||Win||100||71 h 17 m||Show|
8* NFL Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3
I'm shocked the Patriots are only 3-point favorites at home against the Lions. I know the Patriots are just 1-3 to start the year and are likely down to 3rd string quarterback Bailey Zappe. That's where the value comes from.
It's not that surprising to me that the Patriots are 1-3. A lot of teams would be with their schedule. The Patriots have played road games against the Dolphins and Packers. Their other two were home games against the Steelers and Ravens. They beat Pittsburgh, but lost to Baltimore.
I've actually thought New England has looked better than what I anticipated coming into the season. They outgained the Ravens 447 to 394 and had a lead in the 2nd half of that game. They also lost in OT at Lambeau.
This game against the Lions will technically be Zappe's first start, but he pretty much played the whole game against the Packers. Backup Brian Hoyer was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. Zappe didn't light it up with just 99 yards, but he did complete 10 of 15 attempts with a 25-yard TD pass to DeVante Parker.
That was against a pretty good Green Bay defense. I think he'll be even better having that game experience to go off of. It also helps he's playing a BAD Lions defense. Detroit hasn't been able to stop anybody. They are giving up a staggering 35.3 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. That's against teams who on average are scoring just 23.1 ppg, 368 ypg and 5.8 yards/play.
The saving grace for the Lions this year has been their offense, which has been one of the best in the league. Detroit's scoring 35.0 ppg, putting up 437 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's definitely a good offense, but I'm not convinced it's as good as people think. The have feasted on two bad defenses in the Commanders and Seahawks. They only had 24 points at the Vikings and while they scored 35 against the Eagles, that game was 31-14 in favor of Philadelphia less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
The other big thing is the health of this Lions' offense. Detroit won't have stud running back D'Andre Swift. They are down one of their top wide outs in DJ Chark. Their top WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable, as is fellow starter Josh Reynolds. They also have ben hit hard with injuries on the o-line.
I think the Lions offense comes back to reality and the Patriots end up winning this game going away. This is definitely a game I might end up putting a little more on before kickoff. Give me Detroit.
|10-09-22||Chargers v. Browns +2.5||30-28||Win||100||71 h 9 m||Show|
8* NFL Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Cleveland Browns +2.5
I will take my chances with the Browns as a 2.5-point home dog against the Chargers. The betting public can't get to the ticket window fast enough to lay this short number with LA, yet the line is only getting shorter. That on it's own is enough reason to bet Cleveland.
With that said, I do think there's more than just a reverse line move that says back the Browns in this one. I think the perception on Cleveland has really taken a hit the last few weeks. First it was the unthinkable collapse at home to the Jets and then last week's 4th quarter meltdown in a 20-23 loss at Atlanta. This team could very easily be 4-0 right now and should at the very least be 3-1. If that were the case I think they would be favored to win this game.
I also love the matchup for the Browns. That Chargers defense is really built to stop the pass, as they continue to try and figure out a way to overtake Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West. They are not good at stopping the run and are facing a Browns defense that comes in No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 187.3 ypg.
I also have a lot of concerns with the Chargers offensive line, which has lost a top tier left tackle for the season in Rashawn Slater. A loss that could really show up this week. Myles Garrett is back at practice and while he's listed as questionable, I got a pretty good feeling he will play.
One last thing, I think time of possession could be huge in this game. Cleveland is going to be to take the air out of the football and limit the number of possessions for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, especially given how bad LA is running the ball this year. They aren't going to be able to give their defense any kind of significant break. I could see this being very similar to the Chargers game against the Jags, where Jacksonville had the ball for over 38 minutes in a 38-10 win. Give me the Browns +2.5!
|10-09-22||Dolphins -3 v. Jets||Top||17-40||Loss||-115||71 h 24 m||Show|
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -3
I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Dolphins as they go to New York to take on the Jets in a AFC East clash. I just feel like we are getting some exceptional value with Miami because of the fact that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't going to play. I don't see much of a dropoff from Tua to backup Teddy Bridgewater. In relief of Tua last week against the Bengals, Bridgewater completed 14 of 23 (61%) attempts for 193 yards (8.4 yards/attempt).
I wasn't surprised at all that the Dolphins lost that game at Cincinnati, as that was about as tough a spot as they will be in all year. Miami had just 3 days to prepare for the Bengals and were coming off a huge upset win at home against Super Bowl favorite Buffalo. A game in which their defense was on the field for 90+ snaps.
There's a lot of fraud teams out there in the NFL thru the first 4 weeks and the Jets are definitely one of those teams. New York is somehow 2-0, despite having trailed by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter of every game.
Outside of the final minutes of the 4th quarter when it feels like the opposing defense is letting up, the Jets offense hasn't been able to much of anything. New York comes in averaging just 19.0 ppg. They have failed to rush for 100 yards in every game.
Miami's defensive numbers don't look great, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. In their last 3 games they have played 3 of the best QBs in the league in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In their one game against an average to below average QB, they held the Patriots to just 7 points and 271 total yards in a 20-7 win.
I also think it's worth noting that the Jets somehow managed to sweep the season series with Miami last year. The Dolphins are not going to overlook this game and a lack of focus is the only thing I think could keep Miami from winning this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Dolphins -3!
|10-09-22||Texans v. Jaguars -7||Top||13-6||Loss||-102||71 h 22 m||Show|
10* NFL AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -7
I absolutely love the Jaguars as a mere 7-point home favorite against the Texans in Week 5 of the NFL. The Jaguars were really gaining a lot of steam going into last week's big showdown at Philly. In their previous 2 games they had beat the Colts 24-0 at home and rolled the Chargers 38-10 on the road.
It started off great against Philly, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, but it was all Eagles from there. Philadelphia scored 29 unanswered points and went on to win the game 29-21. Not only that but the Jags managed just 219 total yards and turned it over 5 times.
Sure it doesn't look good, but that's about as bad as Jacksonville could have played and yet they still only lost by 8 despite all the offensive struggles and turnovers. Let's also not ignore the fact that game was played in the rain, which I think really benefited the Eagles and their strong run game.
I always like to back good teams who are coming off a bad game, especially when they are facing a bad team like they are here with the Texans. Had Jacksonville won that game, who knows if they would have taken this game seriously. They certainly will having lost the way they did.
I know the Texans have been respectable thru their first 4 games, but their first 3 games were against the Colts, Broncos and Bears. While they did tie Indy 20-20, it's worth noting that the Colts offense that couldn't have looked much worse in their 3 other games put up 517 total yards on the Texans. They also trailed 7-27 at the Chargers last week before eventually cutting it 3 and losing by 10. I'm not so sure this isn't the worst team in the league.
I don't see Houston's offense being able to get anything going against a pissed off Jacksonville defense and I don't see the Texans being to slow down the Jaguars offense. Give me the Jags -7!
|10-08-22||Iowa v. Illinois -3||Top||6-9||Push||0||55 h 45 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR: Illinois Fighting Illini -3
I love Illinois as a mere 3-point home favorite against Iowa. Illinois is a team I was extremely high on coming into this season. They were way better than expected in 2021, which was the first under current head coach Brett Bielema. They got a lot of key pieces back from that team and made a huge upgrade at quarterback with Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. It was really all this team was missing, as they had a solid rushing attack and very underrated defense (allowed just 21.9 ppg last year) last year.
Illinois has started out the 2022 season 4-1 and really should be 5-0. They couldn't have played much worse in a 20-23 loss at Indiana, yet still it took a 12-play 75-yard TD drive with less than a minute to play for the Hoosiers to win that game. They made a real statement last week, going on the road and beating Wisconsin 34-10.
The biggest thing for me is that for as good as Iowa is defensively, they are even worse offensively. I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Hawkeyes against this Illinois defense, which comes in allowing 8.4 ppg, 235 ypg and 3.9 yards/play.
Keep in mind in Iowa's 27-10 win at Rutgers a couple weeks back, they were actually outgained 361-277 by the Scarlet Knights. If not for 2 defensive TDs, they very well may have lost that game outright. I also think it's a bit of a letdown spot for Iowa, who just played a Top 5 team at home, which also happened to be the same team they lost to in last year's Big Ten title game. Give me Illinois -3!
|10-08-22||Washington -13.5 v. Arizona State||38-45||Loss||-120||52 h 32 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS Blowout: Washington Huskies -13.5
I got no problem laying 13.5-points on the road with Washington against Arizona State. I know this is a bit of a square play, but I just don't think the number here is near enough for the Sun Devils to cover.
Arizona State is 1-4 to start the year with their only win coming at home against a FCS opponent in Northern Arizona. They do have a trio of losses against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 15 in Oklahoma State, Utah and USC. Thing is, they weren't competitive in any of those games. They were outgained 465-354 by the Cowboys, 465-267 by Utah (was 34-6 with less than 5 minutes to play) and 485-331 by USC.
I just don't know how the Sun Devils are going to generate enough offense to keep this under a 14 point margin. On one side you have a Washington offense that is one of the best in the country. The offense wasn't at fault in their loss at UCLA last week. Huskies are scoring 41.6 ppg and averaging 507 ypg vs teams who on average are allowing 28.8 ppg and giving up just 413 ypg.
Just to compare that with Arizona State's offense, the Sun Devils are scoring 23.2 ppg and putting up 345 ypg vs teams that are allowing 26.1 ppg and 373 ypg. Homefield is not a big deal in this one, as I think most of the Arizona State fans have given up on this team. I like a motivated Huskies team coming off their first loss to make a statement in this one. Give me Washington -13.5!
|10-08-22||Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State||31-41||Loss||-110||51 h 48 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5
I really think we are getting some big time value with Texas Tech as a 9.5-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I think it's worth noting that I cashed a 10* Top Play last week with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point road dog at Baylor.
The biggest reason I liked that play was the revenge angle for Oklahoma State after getting upset in the Big 12 title game last year by the Bears. The thing is, prior to that game I think people were a little hesitant on the Cowboys and how good they were given their easy schedule to start the year.
I believe that validation now has them way overpriced against a Texas Tech team that I've really been impressed with this year. The Red Raiders are 3-2, despite having played 4 ranked teams in 5 games. Their two losses were a 14-27 loss at NC State, where they outgained the Wolfpack 353 to 270. The other loss was a 28-37 loss at K-State, where they outgained the Wildcats 473-459.
Turnovers absolutely killed them in both of those games, as they turned it over 4 times in each loss. That's definitely a concern going into this game, but they are facing an Oklahoma State defense that despite a soft schedule has only forced 4 turnovers total in 4 games.
I also think the Oklahoma State defense is not anything close to the defense that carried this team to the Big 12 title game last year. The Cowboys are giving up just 23.3 ppg, but that's come against teams who on the season are averaging just 23.9 ppg. They are allowed 397 ypg vs teams that total just 356 ypg.
They face a Texas Tech offense that is scoring 35.0 ppg and averaging 476 ypg vs teams that only give up 27.2 ppg and 394 ypg.
I also think there has to be a bit of a letdown concern here for Oklahoma State. I can't underestimate how big that game was to them against Baylor and they got what could be a massive road game on deck against undefeated and currently No. 17 ranked TCU. It would not surprise me at all if Texas Tech won this game. Give me the Red Raiders +9.5!
|10-08-22||Purdue +3.5 v. Maryland||31-29||Win||100||48 h 52 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5
I will take my chances with Purdue as a 3.5-point road dog against Maryland on Saturday. I just think it's time to sell high on the Terps. Maryland has started the season 4-1 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. I think a lot of people verify this start because Maryland went on the road and competed for 60 minutes in a 27-34 loss to Michigan. I get the Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in the country, but I'm not so sure they as good as people think. Michigan couldn't have started with an easier schedule in their first 3 games and while they got the win and cover last week at Iowa, they didn't dominate like you would expect.
Maryland's two best wins are against SMU by 7 and by 14 at home to a down bad Michigan State team. One of the biggest things that gets overlooked with last week game against the Spartans is the Terps only managed to score 6 points in the 2nd against a Michigan State defense that can't defend the pass.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are a couple of plays away from being 5-0 and at the very least ranked in the Top 15. Purdue lost 31-35 at home to Penn State in their opener, giving up a game-winning TD with less than a minute to play. Outgained the Nittany Lions 426-406. They also 29-32 at Syracuse, where the Orange scored a game-winning TD from 25-yards out with just 7 seconds to play. Last week Purdue reminded everyone how good they are by going into Minnesota and beating the Gophers 20-10 as a 8.5-point dog.
I like the Boilermakers to do the same and win this game outright, but I also think that if Maryland were to win this game, it won't be via a blowout, which makes the 3.5 so valuable. Give me Purdue +3.5!
|10-08-22||Michigan v. Indiana +23||31-10||Win||100||48 h 50 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indiana Hoosiers +23
I'm going to roll the dice with Indiana as a 23-point home dog against the Wolverines. I'm just not convinced Michigan is as good as people think. The Wolverines couldn't have played an easier 3-game start to their season with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn on their schedule. They only won by 7 at home against Maryland as a 17-point favorite in their first real test of the season. While they did win and cover at Iowa last week as a 10-point favorite, they did not dominate that game like you would expect given the Hawkeyes horrific offense.
I'm not saying they aren't going to beat Indiana on the road, I just don't think they are going to run away with this thing like the line suggests. The Hoosiers to be are still being viewed like the team that went just 2-10. Indiana is a much improved team this year. They are 3-2 with their only two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Nebraska.
They are scoring 27.2 ppg, which is nearly a full 10 points more than they averaged last year (17.3 ppg). The defense is also been decent, giving up just 30.4 ppg vs teams averaging 32.8 ppg.
This to me is also a bit of a flat spot for Michigan, who has be feeling pretty about themselves after that big road win at Iowa. Could have a hard time not looking ahead to next week's big home against an undefeated Penn State team that is ranked #10. Give me Indiana +23!
|10-08-22||Texas -7 v. Oklahoma||49-0||Win||100||47 h 10 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Texas Longhorns -7
I'm going to lay the 7 points with Texas in their annual matchup with Oklahoma, as the two teams face off at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas early Saturday. Even though the Sooners come in having just lost 34-41 at home to K-State and 24-55 at TCU, I still think the public looks at this line and gravitates towards a full touchdown with Oklahoma.
I see it the opposite. In fact, I think Texas should be a bigger favorite than they are and I'd be surprised if this line doesn't get bigger as we get closer to kickoff.
One of the big reasons I think the line will move, is I don't think Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is going to play. Gabriel is listed as questionable, but he suffered a concussion on vicious hit while taking a knee on a run. It's pretty rare we see a guy take that kind of hit to the head and play 7 days later and I think it's even less likely given all that's taken place with Tua in the NFL the last two weeks.
I don't know that Gabriel would have kept me from playing Texas in this game, but I do think him not being on the field only increases the likelihood that the Longhorns win this game by double-digits. Backup Davis Beville was just 7 of 16 for a mere 50 yards in relief of Gabriel last week against TCU.
Considering this Texas defense is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry, holding teams 1.2 yards/carry under their season average, I really wonder how Oklahoma will score enough to keep this game close.
The other big thing in this game that I don't think is getting enough hype is Texas getting back starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has not played since going out in the Alabama game. I could be jumping the gun here and giving Ewers too much respect on a small sample size, but I firmly believe Texas would have beat the Crimson Tide had he not got hurt and would be coming into this game 4-0 and ranked in the Top 10, instead of 3-2 and not ranked at all.
I think Ewers and this Texas offense is going to go up down the field against this Oklahoma defense. In their loss to K-State, they gave up 41 points and 509 total yards. The same Wildcats offense that could only manage 10-points and 336 yards at home against Tulane the game before. Then they give up 55 points and 668 total yards to TCU and were lucky to only give up that much. The Horned Frogs had 41 points and 479 total yards at the half of that game.
The one thing that I think could be our downfall with this play is if Texas were to overlook this game because of how bad the Sooners have looked and Gabriel not playing. I just don't think that will be the case. The Longhorns haven't won in this series since 2018 and have sufferent some tough beats the last two years. They lost 45-53 in a 4OT thriller back in 2020 and then last year lost 48-55 after leading 28-7 in the 1st quarter (outscored 25-7 in the 4th quarter). Give me Texas -7!
|10-06-22||Colts v. Broncos -3||Top||12-9||Loss||-120||79 h 7 m||Show|
10* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Denver Broncos -3
I think we are getting an exceptional price here with the Broncos laying only a field goal at home against the Colts. The public perception here is we have a couple of teams that are not as good as what we thought coming into this year. Almost everyone was picking the Colts to win the AFC South and there was plenty of buzz about Denver being that team that dethrones the Chiefs in the AFC West.
After the first 4 weeks of the season, it's up in the air if these two teams will even make the playoffs. For a lot of people, they will have a tough time feeling good about betting either of these teams, which is why I think we are getting a good price here.
I'm way more concerned about the Colts going forward than I am the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, who I think will only get better as Russell Wilson gets a better understanding of the offense and his new weapons, I'm not sure how Indy is going to turn this thing around.
Especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts offensive line play has been brutal. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing at 87.8 ypg and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times.
Their receiving corps lacks a go-to guy and for the time being are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who was really the guy who made this team what it was last year.
Keep in mind the run game is what made this team great last year. They finished 2021 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 149.9 ypg and were T-9th in sacks allowed at 32. Now Taylor is out with a ankle injury.
I just have a hard time seeing that offensive going into the thin air of Denver on just 3-days of rest and performing well against a Broncos defense that is outstanding in the secondary and Top 10 in sacks.
Not saying it will be easy for Wilson and that Denver offense against a pretty good Indianapolis defense, but I got a lot more faith in them being able to sustain drives and most importantly finish them off with TDs. Give me the Broncos -3!
|10-05-22||SMU +3 v. Central Florida||19-41||Loss||-110||28 h 12 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Wednesday Night CFB ANNIHILATOR: SMU Mustangs +3
Give me SMU +3 on the road Wednesday Night against UCF. This game was originally suppose to be played last Saturday. They pushed it back to Sunday because of the hurricane, but decided it was best to push it back a few more days to Wednesday.
It can be hard predicting how a team will respond to a situation like this, but I just feel like there's too much value with the Mustangs at this price to pass up a wager on SMU.
I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Mustangs so far this season. They went on the road to open their season and destroyed North Texas 48-10 and followed that up with a 45-16 win over Lamar. They have lost their last two games to fall to 2-2, but the losses were a 27-34 setback at Maryland and a 34-42 loss at home to TCU.
Nothing to be ashamed with those two losses. Maryland is currently 4-1 with their only loss being a 27-34 defeat at No. 4 Michigan. SMU was not outmatched against the Terps. In fact, they outgained Maryland 520-439 with a 30-16 edge in first downs. TCU is 4-0 and fresh off an absolute beatdown of No. 18 Oklahoma. Horned Frogs only outgained SMU 487-476 with SMU holding a 27-21 edge in first downs.
As for UCF, they are 3-1 to start the year. They have a 56-10 win over SC State, 40-14 win over FAU and most recently a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech. The lone loss being a 14-20 defeat at home to Louisville. At the time the loss to the Cardinals wasn't viewed as a bad loss, but Louisville has really been a disappointment this year. They are just 2-3 and just lost 33-34 at BC as a 14-point favorite.
I just don't think UCF has the offensive fire-power to go score for score with this high-powered Mustangs offense. SMU has one of the best passing attacks in the country behind junior signal caller Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 1,385 yards and 12 TDs. SMU as a team is averaging 38.5 ppg, 506 ypg and 6.4 yards/play.
The thing that I feel gets overlooked with SMU is their defense. They are only giving up 25.5 ppg, despite facing two potent offenses in Maryland and TCU.
You might be saying UCF's defense is pretty good too. The Knights are only giving up 13.5 ppg and 315 ypg. However, the only offense they have faced with a pulse is Louisville and I just haven't been that impressed with the Cardinal offense. Give me SMU +3!
|10-03-22||Rams v. 49ers||Top||9-24||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: San Francisco 49ers PK
I'm going to back the 49ers as a pick'em at home against the Rams. The 49ers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start with ugly losses on the road to the Bears and Broncos. San Francisco has showed little to no signs of life on offense, which a lot of people are going to see as a big concern against the Rams.
On the flip side the Rams, the defending champs, are 2-1, having won their last two after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Bills. They are also coming off an easy cover in a 20-13 win as a 3-point favorite at Arizona.
Simply put, everyone is going to being picking LA to win and cover the spread. The books know this. You have to ask yourself, why aren't the Rams a bigger favorite here? It feels like to me the books are taking a stance with San Francisco.
I see where they are coming from. As bad as the offense has been for the 49ers, the defense has looked incredible. The 49ers are giving up just 12.3 ppg, 227 ypg and 4.1 yards/play. You can't run on this front. SF is allowing just 2.8 yards/carry and holding teams 2.1 yards/rush under their season average.
This to me is a problem for the Rams. LA is one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They are averaging just 72 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. The 49ers should be able to make the Rams one dimensional.
I just don't think LA's offensive line is going to be able to hold up, if Stafford has to drop back every snap. This o-line isn't anything close to the unit they won the Super Bowl with.
Stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. Starting center Brian Allen was for the foreseeable future in Week 1. Starting right guard Coleman Shelton has had to move inside to center. Problem is his backups Logan Bruss and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. are both on IR. They will also be without starting left guard Brian Allen (concussion) in this game.
One other thing, I think there's this perception that the Rams are this great defensive team. They got some great players, but I question the talent around them. I still think SF is a better offensive team with Jimmy G. As bad as he looked in his first start last week, it's not easy winning at Denver and that Broncos defense is sneaky good. Rams gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to Falcons. They held the Cardinals to just 12 points, but Arizona had a very respectable 365 total yards in that game. Give me the 49ers PK!
|10-02-22||Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders||23-32||Loss||-105||51 h 28 m||Show|
8* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos +2.5
I'm going to take the Broncos as a 2.5-point road dog against the Raiders on Sunday. This is being labeled a "must-win" for the Raiders after their 0-3 start. I'm not saying it isn't but the idea that Las Vegas has to win has the public quick to back the Raiders at home laying less than a field goal. I also think there's a lot of negativity towards Denver right now because their offense isn't performing like people expected.
I believe the Broncos are the right side in this matchup and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Denver's offense is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They should have 30+ points in their opener against the Seahawks and would have had they not fumbled twice on the 1-yard line when going in for a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the 49ers, but San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league.
The Raiders are not a good defensive team. Las Vegas is giving up 25.7 ppg, 376 ypg and 5.8 yards/play vs teams that are averaging just 19.0 ppg, 337 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. This is a defense that Russell Wilson and that Denver offense should be able to exploit.
On the flip side of this, I really like what I've seen out of this Denver defense. The Broncos have a great pass rush and one of the better secondaries in the NFL. They have allowed 177, 154 and 179 passing yards in their first 3 games. Raiders have not been able to run the ball, averaging just 80 ypg on the ground, which means they will be trying to attack the strength of this Broncos defense. Give me Denver +2.5!
|10-02-22||Titans v. Colts -3.5||24-17||Loss||-110||48 h 2 m||Show|
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts -3.5
I will lay the 3.5 with the Colts at home against the Titans in Week 4. While the Colts are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs last week as a 4.5-point dog, no one is really giving this team any credit for that victory. All the talk is about how Kansas City gave that game away.
No question the Colts caught some breaks in that game, but that's the kind of win that can turn things around for a team. The biggest thing that has held the Indy offense back the last two games is they haven't been able to get the running game going. Just keep in mind the Jags lead the NFL in run defense, giving up just 55.0 ypg on the ground and KC is 9th, allowing just 86.7 ypg.
The Titans are 29th in the league, giving up 145 ypg and dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.8 yards/carry. This should be a breakout game for Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor and with Tennessee having to focus all their attention on him, it should also mean a big day for Matt Ryan and the passing game.
On the flip side of this, we know the Titans are a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Thing is, Henry hasn't looked himself in 2022 and Indy comes into this game allowing a league low 2.6 yards/carry vs the run.
I look for the Colts to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Colts -3.5!
|10-02-22||Jets v. Steelers -3||Top||24-20||Loss||-110||48 h 9 m||Show|
10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team.
I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are.
You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game.
I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3!
|10-02-22||Bills -3 v. Ravens||Top||23-20||Push||0||48 h 7 m||Show|
10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3
I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been.
I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2.
As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them.
Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3!
|10-01-22||Stanford +17 v. Oregon||27-45||Loss||-110||37 h 53 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Stanford Cardinal +17
This to me is just too many points to pass up with Stanford, who is a 17-point road dog against Oregon. The Cardinal are getting absolutely no love from the books or the public right now, as they have failed to cover the spread in all 3 of their games, including ugly losses in their big step up games against USC (lost 28-41 as a 9.5-point dog) and Washington (lost 22-40 as a 14-point dog). It to me has created a great buy low spot on Stanford, who has the offensive fire-power to put up points on this Oregon defense.
I also don't love the spot here for the Ducks. Oregon is coming into this game off a dramatic 44-41 win at Washington State. A game they trailed 15-27 going into the 4th and 22-34 with less than 5 minutes to play. The Ducks didn't take their first lead in that game until there was 1:21 left in the 4th quarter. Playing from behind like that for a full 60 minutes takes a lot out of a team.
I think think with how everyone is calling for a blowout here by Oregon, it sets the Ducks up for a big letdown and you know Stanford is going to be up for this game given how poorly they have played their last two games and this being such a big rivalry. Give me the Cardinal +17!
|10-01-22||Virginia v. Duke -2.5||17-38||Win||100||45 h 35 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils -2.5
I'm going to lay the 2.5 with Duke at home against Virginia. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with the Blue Devils. Duke had started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS before losing and failing to cover last week in a 27-35 loss at Kansas as a 7-point dog. Even though they lost that game, I thought the Blue Devils were impressive in defeat against a much improved Kansas team. They just were able to slow down that Jayhawks offense.
They aren't going to have that problem defensively against a bad and very overrated Cavaliers offense that gets way too much respect because they brought back a good QB in Brennan Armstrong. They just don't have the offensive line or playmakers on the outside that they had a year ago.
They did manage to cover last week in a 20-22 loss at Syracuse as a 9.5-point dog, but were very lucky to do so. Syracuse settled for 5 field goals in that game. They had kicked 3 FGs from 32 yards or less in just the first half. They didn't find the endzone again after scoring a TD on their opening drive.
Duke has a legit offense behind one of the best kept secrets in quarterback Riley Leonard. Thru 4 games, Leonard has completed 72 of 101 attempts (71.3%) and isn't just dinking and dunking it down the field. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt (T-6th) in the country.
I just don't see this Virginia going on the road with that offensive line and being able to keep pace offensively with the Blue Devils. Give me Duke -2.5!
|10-01-22||Iowa State -3 v. Kansas||11-14||Loss||-110||43 h 6 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -3
I really like Iowa State as a slim 3-point road favorite against Kansas. I've been on this Jayhawks team a decent amount here to start the season and they have really delivered, going a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, which includes a 55-42 win on the road against West Virginia as a 14-point dog and a 48-30 win at Houston as a 8.5-point dog.
They key here is the perception of Kansas has shifted dramatically. I believe they have come from being one of the most underrated teams to being way overvalued.
The wins at West Virginia and Houston are impressive, but they far from dominated those games. They fell behind 7-21 to the Mountaineers before rallying and eventually winning in OT. They were outgained 511 to 419 in that win over WV. They were outgained 446 to 438 in their win over Houston. The win over Duke is nice, but even though the Blue Devils came into that game 3-0, that's not a Duke team that is any sort of threat in the ACC.
Iowa State is the best team the Jayhawks have played and it's not even close. The Cyclones are 3-1 with their only loss coming last week in a 24-31 loss at home to Baylor. There were a few calls early in that game that really impacted the outcome of that game.
I just look at the matchup. As good as Kansas' offense has been, there defense has been equally as bad. I don't see the Jayhawks being able to get off the field in this one. I just don't know if they can win a shootout with how good ISU is defensively. Cyclones are only giving up 14.5 ppg and 266 ypg and that's come against teams who are averaging 24.4 ppg and 350 yards/game. They are holding teams to 1.3 yards per rush under their season average (allowing 2.7 vs teams averaging 4). I like the Jayhawks to get a wakeup call in this one. Give me Iowa State -3!
|10-01-22||Northwestern +25.5 v. Penn State||7-17||Win||100||41 h 1 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Northwestern Wildcats +25.5
I like the 25.5 we are getting with Northwestern, as they go on the road to face No. 11 Penn State. I just feel this line has been inflated to where there's too much value with the Wildcats. No one is going to want to bet Northwestern, who has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 games. All as favorites, two by double-digits. On the flip side, the public sees a ranked Nittany Lions team that is 4-0 and has covered 3 of the 4, with each of their last 3 wins coming in blowout fashion, including a 41-12 win at Auburn.
All of those games for Penn State were non-confernece. Games are just played closer in conference. Let's also not ignore the fact that the Nittany Lions were extremely lucky to pull out a 35-31 win on the road at Purdue in their opener.
I also don't think Northwestern is as bad as what people think. They outgained the Blue Devils 511 to 461 in a 23-31 loss to Duke. They outgained Southern Illinois 380 to 357 in a 24-31 defeat and outgained Miami (OH) 364 to 278 in a 14-17 loss. They got a decent QB in Ryan Hilinski and a very talented running back in Evan Hull, who has already accounted for 681 yards and 4 TDs. Give me Northwestern +25.5!
|10-01-22||Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor||Top||36-25||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5
I will gladly take the 2.5-points with No. 9 Oklahoma State on the road against No. 16 Baylor. I really like the price and the spot here with the Cowboys. This is without a doubt a game Oklahoma State had circled when the schedule was announced. The last time these two teams played was last year's Big 12 title game, which saw the Bears upset the Cowboys 21-16 as a 7-point dog.
It's also a game that Oklahoma State has had two weeks to prepare for after a bye last week. That's a big advantage here, especially with Baylor coming off a huge road win at Iowa State last week.
I also feel like even though the Cowboys are ranked in the Top 10, this is a team that is being undervalued right now. The only game they haven't covered is their 58-44 Week 1 win over Central Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite. They may have not covered, but they led 51-15 early in the 3rd quarter and called off the dogs, getting outscored 29-7 the rest of the way. That end to that game also greatly skewed the defensive numbers for this Oklahoma State defense.
The other big thing I think getting overlooked with the Cowboys and maybe the biggest reason I think they are underrated is the improvement we have seen out of starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. He's completed 65.3% of his attempts with a 9.6 average. Both career highs. He's also got a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. His career high for a season in TD passes is 20. He's also rushed for over 100 yards and 3 scores.
I just think the Cowboys are the better team on both sides of the ball and should be the favorites in this matchup. Keep in mind this line suggest that if this game was played on a neutral field the line would be around Oklahoma State -1 to -2. Give me the Cowboys +2.5!
|10-01-22||Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -9||10-41||Win||100||29 h 10 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: North Carolina Tar Heels -9
I just can't help myself here but to lay the 9-points at home with North Carolina against Virginia Tech. I think it's a great spot here to jump on the Tar Heels after last week's 32-45 home loss to Notre Dame, where everyone was calling for UNC to win that game.
I'm also looking to fade this Virginia Tech team right now. I couldn't believe West Virginia (had a 10* play on Mountaineers) was only a 2-point road favorite against the Hokies last week. Mountaineers won that game 33-10, outgaining Va Tech 421 to 228.
This is a really bad Hokies offense. They are scoring just 20.3 ppg and averaging 332 ypg against opponents who are giving up 26.6 ppg and 401 ypg. It's why I'm not overly concerned here with the struggles that UNC has defensively. This is also a Hokies offense that can't run the ball and could really be handcuffed if weather plays a role at all in this one.
I don't think the Hokies defense is bad, but their numbers are without a doubt aided by the fact that they played 3 bad offensive team in their first 3 games in ODU, BC and Wofford. They are allowing just 85 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry on the ground, yet gave up 218 yards rushing to W Virginia.
UNC comes in avarging 46.5 ppg, 502 ypg and 7.3 yards play. That's against teams who are allowing just 38.1 ppg, 447 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. They are averaging 194 yards and 5.3 yards/carry on the ground and putting up 308 ypg in the air. I think they easily get to 35 and I just don't see the Hokies getting into the mid 20s on the road. Give me North Carolina -9!
|10-01-22||Michigan State +8.5 v. Maryland||Top||13-27||Loss||-120||41 h 38 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +8.5
I've taken it on the chin with Michigan State the last two weeks in ugly losses. First it was a 28-39 loss at Washington as a 3.5-point dog and then a 7-34 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point dog. Much like I did with the Huskies, I didn't give that Minnesota the respect they deserved. I
I'm confident I'm not making that same mistake here with Maryland, especially at this price. The Terps caught the eye of a lot of people last week, as they only lost 27-34 as a 17-point road dog at No. 4 Michigan.
I just think some of them keeping that game close had to due with Michigan maybe being a little overconfident and untested after 3 cupcake games to start the season. Let's also not ignore the fact that Michigan led 34-19 in that game in the 4th quarter before Maryland scored a late TD in garbage time to make it appear closer.
Another big thing here is the health of Terps' starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who suffered a rib injury in the loss to Michigan. He did return after leaving that game, but clearly this family has a mindset of playing even when they are hurt after watching what's went down with his brother Tua the last couple of weeks. He's a game-time decision as of right now.
So is leading wide out Rakim Jarrett, who is off to a great start after leading the team in receiving last year.
I do have some concerns with the Michigan State secondary, but I just feel that a lot of their struggles the last couple of weeks were playing two of the better teams in the country in Washington and Minnesota. This also has to feel like a must-win for the Spartans, who after this play at home against Ohio State and Wisconsin before going on the road to face in-state rival Michigan. Give me the Spartans +8.5!
|09-25-22||Packers +1 v. Bucs||14-12||Win||100||75 h 59 m||Show|
8* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Green Bay Packers +1
I'm betting the Packers as a 1-point dog against the Bucs in Week 3. I just think given the current state of the Tampa Bay offense, there's too much value here with Green Bay at basically a pick'em.
Who knows what Tom Brady is going to have to work with at wide receiver in this game. We know for sure he won't have Mike Evans, who is suspended for this game. Their next 5 WR's on the depth chart are Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. All 5 of them are questionable.
They have also ready lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury from a unit that was down after losing two starters from last year in Cappa and Marpet. Starting left tackle Donovan Smith is questionable and his backup Josh Wells is on IR.
The offense wasn't sharp in their opener against the Cowboys. They had just 12 points in that game with less than 5 minutes to play. They scored just 20 against the Saints last week. That game was 3-3 going into the 4th and 7 of their 20 came on a 68-yard pick-six.
Packers offense wasn't very good in Week 1, but the defense played pretty well against a good Vikings offense. Green Bay then held the Bears to just 228 and 11 first downs in Week 2. As good as Brady is, it's going to be really hard for TB to keep their offense on the field and finish off drives with TDs.
I also think there's some value still with Green Bay due to their ugly showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. It's just what this team does. They did it last year. They lost 38-3 to the Saints and then won 7 in a row. Rodgers and the offense looked much better in Week 2 and will only get better. He is facing a top tier Tampa Bay defense, but he's one of the few QBs where it just doesn't matter how good the defense is, he's going to get his. Give me the Packers +1!
|09-25-22||Jaguars +7.5 v. Chargers||Top||38-10||Win||100||75 h 37 m||Show|
10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game.
There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game.
If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel.
You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen.
I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5!
|09-25-22||Ravens v. Patriots +3||37-26||Loss||-120||73 h 40 m||Show|
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New England Patriots +3
I will gladly take the 3-points with the Patriots as a home dog against the Ravens. Any time you got a Bill Belichick coached team getting points, you really don't have to do any more research. You just bet New England. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS as a home dog since Belichick took over.
It's also worth noting that the Pats had to play their first two games on the road, which probably has them undervalued given their home field edge. It's definitely been a profitable spot long term, as the Pats are 30-17 (64%) ATS under Belichick after playing their last two games on the road.
Baltimore is also a team that I think is getting too much respect in this spot. Most will just chalk it up as a fluke that the Ravens blew that 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins last week. Not me. I think Baltimore isn't quite as good defensively as what we expected them to be.
You also have a banged up Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. He says he's going to play, but it's bothering him enough he wasn't throwing at all in practice. You got to wonder if he will be as willing to run the ball with that banged up elbow. On top of that, Belichick is going to do everything he can to keep him from making plays with his feet. He's going to make Jackson beat him with his arm. I don't know that he can against this Patriots defense.
No one is going to praise them for how the defense looked in last week's win over the Steelers, but I don't think they are getting enough credit for what their defense did against the Dolphins in Week 1. They held Miami to just 20 points on 307 yards. Dolphins had 42 points and 547 yards against the Ravens. Give me the Patriots +3!
|09-25-22||Raiders -2 v. Titans||22-24||Loss||-110||72 h 35 m||Show|
8* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oakland Raiders -2
Even after all the pain the Raiders caused me last Sunday when they somehow managed to fail to cover as a 5.5-point favorite after leading 23-7 going into the 4th quarter, I'm backing them again this week. I'll lay the 2-points with Las Vegas on the road against the Titans.
I know both teams are 0-2 and are going to feel like this is a must-win. I just don't think Tennessee is any good. The Raiders in my eyes are by far the better team. My money is on them to find a way to avoid the 0-3 start.
Tennessee is so far removed from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Not that they were anything close to the best team in that conference in 2021. They traded away their only real threat in the passing game in A.J. Brown and didn't improve the defense. Derrick Henry hasn't even remotely resembled the back that from two years ago. I also think Ryan Tannehill is regressing with having to shoulder more of the load.
They are just not a good football team. They lost a game they shouldn't have in Week 1 to a average at best Jets team and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as Buffalo.
I don't see the Titans defense being able to get off the field and I think the Raiders front 7 is good enough to not allow Henry to get going and make it really hard on Tennessee to move the ball. Give me the Raiders -2!
|09-24-22||Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma||41-34||Win||100||76 h 6 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Kansa State Wildcats +13
My money is on Kansas State to cover as a 13-point road dog against Oklahoma. I think we got a perfect recipe for line value with last week's results for these two teams. On one side you had Kansas State lose 10-17 at home to Tulane as a 13-point favorite, while Oklahoma went on the road and embarrassed Nebraska 49-14 as a mere 10.5-point favorite.
Anyone that was taking a wait and see approach with Oklahoma after losing head coach Lincoln Riley is now going to be sold that this Sooners team is going to run the table and fight for a playoff spot. I just don't think that's the case. Sure, I thought Nebraska would put up more of a fight in the first game after Scott Frost was fired, but that's not a surprising result to me.
Maybe I'm wrong and Brent Venables is going to be this great new head coach, but I still think Oklahoma is not on the same level as they were with Riley calling the shots.
One thing is for sure, that offense of there's will be facing a defense with any kind of a pulse for the first time this year. Kansas State is miles ahead of any team the Sooners have faced on the defensive side of the ball.
I also think you have to ask yourself how much of the spot played into K-State's poor showing against Tulane. The Wildcats were fresh off a 40-12 win against Missouri against rival Missouri as a 7-point favorite. A game some thought they were to struggle to win. Then they had this massive game against Oklahoma looming on deck. I think it had a big impact.
I also think you got to look at the track record in this series. K-State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. One as a 23.5-point dog and the other as a 28-point dog. Two of their last 3 losses to Oklahoma have come by 7 or less and they are responsible for 3 of Oklahoma 6 losses at home in Big 12 play since 2012. Would it really shock you if they won this game outright. Not me. Give me the Wildcats +13!
|09-24-22||Wisconsin +19 v. Ohio State||21-52||Loss||-110||76 h 37 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Wisconsin Badgers +19
I will take Wisconsin as a 19-point road dog against Ohio State. Nobody is giving the Badgers any shot in this game and I just feel like the line has gotten out of control. I get the Buckeyes came into this season as a consensus playoff pick and they have looked the part in their last two games against Arkansas State (45-12) and Toledo (77-21), but it's like everyone has just completely blocked out their opener against Notre Dame. A game they only won 21-10 as a similarly priced 17-point favorite.
Wisconsin is a heck of a lot better team than Notre Dame. That's just not the perception people have. A big reason for that is the Badgers shocking 14-17 home loss to Washington State. Yes, they lost, but they were the better team. Wisconsin outgained the Cougars 401 to 253 with a 22-10 edge in first downs.
I just think if Notre Dame's defense can give this Ohio State offense fits, there's no reason to think the Badgers' defense can't do the same.
All Ohio State is going to hear going into this game is how good they are and how Wisconsin doesn't have the offense to compete. They kind of mindset is how upsets happen. The Badgers will not only being playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they got nothing to lose here. I could be dead wrong here, but at this price and how big the public is on Ohio State, I got to take the points. Give me the Badgers +19!
|09-24-22||Connecticut +39 v. NC State||10-41||Win||100||76 h 36 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS KNOCKOUT: UConn Huskies +39
Yes, I'm taking the 39-points with UConn on the road against NC State. The same UConn team that has lost 14-48 at home to Syracuse (24-pt dog) and 0-59 at Michigan (47.5 pt dog) in their last two games.
Most will just assume that with NC State sitting there ranked No. 12 in the country, they are just going to be able to name their score in this one. I just don't think that's going to be the case. Wolfpack are 3-0, but they have not impressed me in their two biggest games. They beat ECU 21-20 and the Pirates missed an extra point late, as well as a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds. They did just beat Texas Tech 27-14, were outgained 353-270 by the Red-Raiders.
The other big factor here is the spot. NC State has their biggest game on their schedule looming next week at Clemson. A game that they probably have to win to have a legit shot at winning the ACC Atlantic.
They aren't going to be out for style points in this game. Their primary focus is to win and keep everyone healthy. So even if they get up early, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win by 40+ with all their backups playing the entire 2nd half. Give me UConn +39!
|09-24-22||Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky||23-31||Win||100||75 h 8 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Northern Illinois Huskies +26.5
I really like Northern Illinois to cover as a 26.5-point dog against Kentucky. To me this line doesn't make a lot of sense. In the Wildcats season opener they were a mere 15-point home favorite against Miami (OH). Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) both play in the MAC and the Huskies are the defending MAC champs with 18 returning starters. This line suggest that Northern Illinois would be a double-digit dog on a neutral to Miami (OH). No chance.
It's also worth noting that while Kentucky won and covered against the RedHawks in a 37-13 win. They needed a last second field goal to go into the half with a 13-10 lead. They then flipped the script with a 100-yard kick return to open the 2nd half. They only outgained Miami (OH) by 63 yards.
For them to win by 27 or more you would think they need to outgain Northern Illinois by 250+ yards. I just don't see that happening. Northern Illinois is going to fight. There's not many bigger stages for them than playing a Top 10 ranked opponent.
I'm just not a believer that Kentucky is a Top 10 team and I think this is a bit of a tricky spot for them with a huge game on deck next week at No. 16 Ole Miss. Even if they get up big, they are going to pull their guys and go into conservative mode, which will leave the backdoor wide open. Give me Northern Illinois +26.5!
|09-24-22||Arkansas +2.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||21-23||Win||100||75 h 4 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5
I love the Razorbacks as a 2.5-point dog in their neutral site showdown with the Aggies. For those that don't know, the game is being played at AT&T Stadium (home of the Cowboys). Sure Texas A&M was able to win and cover last week in their huge game against Miami, winning 17-9 as a 6.5-point favorite. They were lucky to do so, as they were outgained 392 to 264.
There was hope that a switch to QB Max Johnson would spark the offense. It didn't It looked like the exact same offense that let them down in their upset loss at home to App State. If that wasn't a prime time night game under the lights, where that Texas A&M crowd is out of control, I don't know if they beat the Hurricanes.
They aren't going to have that kind of crowd impact at AT&T Stadium and are playing their toughest challenge to date in Arkansas. I don't know what it is about the Razorbacks, but they just keep staying under the radar. They are now 8-1 in their last 9 games and their only loss was by a mere 7-points at Alabama. They got the best quarterback nobody talks about in KJ Jefferson, who is off to a great start.
The gap in talent at the quarterback position alone in this game is enough that should have Arkansas favored. I just don't see the Aggies being able to do enough offensively to win this game and say what you want about Alabama looming on the schedule next week for the Razorbacks. They are not looking past this game. Give me Arkansas +2.5!
|09-24-22||Arizona +3 v. California||31-49||Loss||-100||74 h 37 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arizona Wildcats +3
I will gladly take 3-points on the road with Arizona at Cal. I'm 1-1 on the Wildcats this year. I won with them in their 38-20 win at San Diego State as a 6.5-point dog. I lost with them in a 17-39 loss at home to Mississippi State as a 10.5-point dog. Looking back I just got a little too greedy with Arizona. Their a team I'm so high on this year and even though they are improved, they aren't quite ready to compete with the big boys.
Cal is certainly not a big boy. The Golden Bears are 2-1. They were far from impressive in home wins over UC Davis and UNLV to start the year. They did however cover as a 13.5-point dog in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week.
It's a big deal going on the road and facing the Irish in South Bend. That was easily the biggest game on the schedule for Cal in the first half of their season. Regardless of how that game went, it was going to be tough for the Golden Bears to bounce back with a top tier effort in this game. I think it's even less likely after losing the way they did (led 17-14 going into the 4th).
There's just nothing I've seen so far that makes me think in differently on Cal, who I didn't think was going to be very good. Golden Bears only returned 8 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.
As for Arizona, they were a team I thought was poised to make a massive jump in 2022. Not only were they figuring to be improved in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch, but they brought in a ton of talent via the transfer portal, including nabbing last year's Pac-12 leading passer in quarterback Jayden De Laura. Simply put I think they are the better team and should be favored in this one. Give me Arizona +3!
|09-24-22||Toledo v. San Diego State +3||14-17||Win||100||71 h 28 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Diego State Aztecs +3
I will gladly take the 3-points with San Diego State at home against Toledo. I think this is the perfect spot and price to buy-low on the Aztecs. San Diego State has not been impressive to start the year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost 20-38 as a 6-point favorite at home to Arizona in their opener, beat Idaho State 38-7 as a 32.5-point favorite and then got annihilated 35-7 at Utah as a 22-point dog.
Thing a lot of people don't realize is they really haven't lost a game they should have won. Yes, they were a favorite against Arizona in their opener, but that Wildcats team was being way undervalued coming into this season. Arizona is easily one of the more improved teams in the country. As for the loss to Utah, what did you really expect. That's a Utes team that a lot of people picked to make the playoffs.
One thing to note about the poor offensive showing against Utah is they lost starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister in the 1st quarter. (poked in the eye) He didn't return, but head coach Brady Hoke has said he's going to be ready to go for Saturday.
I just think that given how bad SDSU has looked and Toledo being one of the favorites to win the MAC has the wrong team favored. The Rockets might be the class of the MAC, but the MAC is also the worst conference in the FBS.
The other huge factor for me is the spot. Toledo's biggest game on their schedule was last week at in-state big brother Ohio State (who they rarely get to play). So even though they got annihilated 71-21, it will be tough for them to bring that same level of energy to this game. Not only that, but keep in mind they are now back on the road and forced to go way out west against a hungry San Diego State. Last time the Rockies traveled to California for a regular-season game was 2018 against Fresno State. A game they lost 27-49 as a 9-point dog. Give me San Diego State +3!
|09-24-22||James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State||32-28||Win||100||71 h 28 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Smart Money CASH COW: James Madison Dukes +7
I will once again fade Appalachian State and grab the 7-points with James Madison. Last week we backed Troy at +12.5 and the Trojans nearly won outright, losing on a hail mary in the final seconds.
I faded App State in that game because of the emotional rollercoaster they had been on to start the year. First they lose 61-63 to UNC, scoring 40 points in the 4th quarter to nearly erase a 20-point 4th quarter deficit (missed 2-pt conversion with 9 seconds left). Then they pulled off a massive upset, beating Texas A&M 17-14 on the road.
I just don't see them having anything left in the tank for this game and they are up against a very talented Dukes team. For those that don't know James Madison made the jump from FCS to the FBS this year. The assumption most have when this happen is they are going to struggle that first year after making the jump.
I don't think that's the case at all. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season in 2021 and have won 9 or more games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. In their opener against Middle Tennessee they beat the Blue Raiders 44-7 as a 5-point favorite, outgaining them 548 to 119 in the process. They then destroyed Norfolk State 63-7. Very similar type of dominating performance to Marshall in their 55-3 win over Norfolk State.
The other massive factor in this game is the fact that James Madison is coming off a bye week, which means they not only are going to have fresh legs, but have had two full weeks to prepare for this game. A game you know they had circled with how many people had App State picked to win the conference. The Dukes will be out to make a statement that they belong. I give them a real shot here to win this game outright. Give me the James Madison +7.
|09-24-22||Texas v. Texas Tech +7||Top||34-37||Win||100||72 h 41 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7
I absolutely love getting Texas Tech as a 7-point home dog against Texas. The Longhorns to be are being way overvalued right now. Texas is a public team and any time this team shows they might be back, everyone is so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Their 19-20 loss to Alabama completely flipped the script on the perception of this team.
Unfortunately for Texas they lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who looked like a real difference maker for this team. No disrespect to backup Hudson Card, but he's a big down grade. Card has attempted 14 more passes (8 more completions) than Ewers and still trail him in yards. I believe it makes them more one-dimensional with the run game.
They wound up covering as a 13-point favorite with Card under center last week against UTSA, winning 41-20. However, they far from dominated that game. They only outgained the Roadrunners 459-408 and had just 21 first downs to UTSA's 29.
I just think them winning and covering and then Texas Tech failing to cover as a 10.5-point dog in a 14-27 loss at NC State has created some line value here. Keep in mind the public was all over the Red Raiders as a double-digit dog against NC State.
The key here is the public only cares about the final result. Texas Tech lost them money. Thing is, they probably shouldn't have. Red Raiders outgained NC State 353 to 270. I've really liked what I've seen out of this team in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. I also loved both their coordinator hires, bringing in Zach Kittley on offense and Tim DeRuyter on defense.
I also see a very motivated Texas Tech team coming into this game after last year's embarrassing 35-70 loss to Texas, where they trailed 14-42 at the half and 28-63 after 3 quarters. While it's not a night game in Lubbock, Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this game. There's not a game on the schedule the Red Raiders want more than this one and they haven't won in this series since 2017 (only 4 wins since 1999). I think this team is not only capable of making a game of it with Card at quarterback, I think they got a legit shot here to win outright. Give me Texas Tech +7!
|09-24-22||Minnesota v. Michigan State +3||Top||34-7||Loss||-110||72 h 39 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +3
I love Michigan State as a 3-point home dog against Minnesota. I took it on the chin last week with the Spartans as a 3.5-point dog at Washington. I undervalued the Huskies, especially quarterback Michael Penix. I also gave way to much respect to the Michigan State secondary. I thought it was more improved than it was.
The good news is that loss has created a good buy low spot with the Spartans. No way should they be a home dog to the Gophers. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 start. Not only have they won all 3 games they have played, they have covered the number. They covered with ease last week as a 28-point favorite against Colorado, winning by a final of 49-7.
That's not a very good Buffaloes team. Colorado has lost 13-38 at home to TCU and 10-41 at Air Force in their other two games. Minnesota's other two wins are against New Mexico State and Western Illinois.
I'm not saying the Gophers aren't a good team. I just think they are way overvalued right now and I think it's a bad matchup for them.
The inability to stop top tier quarterbacks was the downfall of Michigan State in 2021. Clearly it's still a problem. What they haven't struggled to stop is the run. They are allowing just 90 ypg and 2.7 yards/carry.
The Gophers' Tanner Morgan is a quality quarterback at the college level, but he's not going to carry this team with his arm. Minnesota's offense is built on their running game. They have ran it 50+ times in each of their first 3 games. They will also be handcuffed in the passing game going forward after losing wide out, Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury. Autman-Bell led the team in catches (11), yards (214) and yards/catch (19.5).
Minnesota's defense looks all world thru 3 games, giving up just 5.7 ppg and 170 ypg, but note the 3 teams they play combine to only average 9.3 ppg and 226 ypg. Gophers haven't even sniffed an offense as good as Michigan State. The defense will be solid, but not this good. They lost a ton up front from last year. I look for the Spartans to be able get the ground game going and pick up some big plays thru the air. Give me Michigan State +3!
|09-22-22||Steelers v. Browns -4.5||Top||17-29||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5
I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think.
Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game.
The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243.
As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation.
Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402!
This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24.
Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5!
|09-22-22||West Virginia -1 v. Virginia Tech||33-10||Win||100||28 h 13 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: W Virginia Mountaineers -1
I'm taking West Virginia to cover as a slim 1 point road favorite against Virginia Tech. Even though the Mountaineers come into this game off a 65-7 blowout win over Towson, I think there's value stemming from the fact that they are 1-2 with a 42-55 loss at home to Kansas as a 14-point favorite.
A couple of years ago losing at home to Kansas would be unacceptable, but this year's Jayhawks team is built different. They just went on the road and beat Houston last week 48-30 as more than a TD dog. It's worth noting that West Virginia did lead 21-3 and had a 511 to 419 edge in total yards in the loss to the Jayhawks.
There other loss is a 31-38 setback on the road against a pretty good Pitt team. A game they led by 7 in the 4th quarter and eventually lost on a 56-yard interception return for a score. Mountaineers also outgained the Panthers 404-384.
Those are two pretty talent offensive teams. Kansas has a Top 10 ranked rushing attack and Pitt had one of the top QBs in the country in Slovis.
Virginia Tech doesn't do really do anything well offensively. In their two games so far against FBS opponents they have managed just 333 total yards against Old Dominion and 284 against Boston College.
I'm also sure there's going to be talk about the great defensive numbers that the Hokies have thru 3 games. Something a lot of people will quickly buy into because they will just attribute it to first year head coach Brent Pry who came over after being the DC at Penn State.
I'm not saying the defense isn't improved. I just don't think it's as good as people think. Boston College only had 312 total yards at home against Rutgers and Old Dominion had just 290 in a loss to ECU and 324 against Virginia.
Adding on to the Old Dominion games that they have played since playing Virginia Tech. I mentioned the Hokies had just 333 total yards vs them. The Monarchs gave up 531 yards to East Carolina and 513 to Virginia.
Look for JT Daniels and that Mountaineers offense to make some plays and I just don't see the Hokies offense being able to keep pace. This also feels like it's a season-saving type game for West Virginia. With Texas and Baylor on the schedule next, they need this win, which is why I'm not concerned about them looking ahead to that game with the Longhorns. Give me West Virginia -1!
|09-18-22||Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5||29-23||Loss||-105||78 h 30 m||Show|
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5
I'm going to take the Raiders as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday. I know you don't want to overreact to what you saw in Week 1, but I can't help myself here laying less than a touchdown with the Raiders.
The biggest thing for me is I came into this season way down on the Cardinals, especially early in the year with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension. Keep in mind they also lost Christian Kirk in free agency, who led them last year in receiving with 77 catches for 982 yards and 5 scores. One of the guys they were hoping to fill the void was Rondale Moore and he's doubtful. Tight end Zach Ertz is also questionable with a calf injury.
That's just the offense. The defense lost one of their stud pass rushers in Chandler Jones and failed to address their biggest need up front on the defensive line. J.J. Watt didn't play in the opener and while he could be back isn't enough to sure up that side of the ball.
I just have a hard time seeing this team as it's currently constructed being able to go on the road and compete with a Raiders team that is much better than they showed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Everyone acts like Las Vegas was dominated in their 19-24 loss to LA, but I saw it differently. I thought it was actually impressive that the Raiders had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter given Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times.
The offensive line clearly is a weakness for Las Vegas and was exposed against maybe the pass rushing duo in the NFL in the Chargers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Arizona just doesn't have the talent in their front 7 to expose the Raiders weakness on the o-line and in turn I look for Carr and the Raiders offense to have a similar type of showing as we saw last week with Mahomes and Chiefs doing whatever they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take my chances with the Raiders defense doing enough for Las Vegas to get at least 6 points of separation when this is all said and done. Give me the Raiders -5.5!
|09-18-22||Falcons +10.5 v. Rams||Top||27-31||Win||100||77 h 13 m||Show|
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5
I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense.
A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run.
As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself.
Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys.
I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5!
|09-18-22||Jets +7 v. Browns||31-30||Win||100||74 h 9 m||Show|
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets +7
I'll take my chances with the Jets cashing in as a 7-point road dog against the Browns in Week 2. Even though we lost with the Panthers in Week 1 against Cleveland, I still think this Browns team is getting a little too much love with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback.
The Panthers did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot for the majority of that game. Even after trailing by 14 early and by double-digits going into the 4th, Carolina had a 24-23 lead with 1:13 left to play. If not for Cade York's 58-yard game winning field goal, I think the perception would be a lot different on Cleveland going into Week 2.
Even with rushing for 217 yards and 5.6 yards/carry, Cleveland finished the game averaging just 4.8 yards/play. That really speaks to how much the offense is playing behind the 8-ball with Brissett.
As for the Jets, I didn't feel they played as poorly as it appeared in Week 1. The Jets lost 24-9 to Baltimore, but they actually outgained the Ravens 380 to 274. Joe Flacco wasn't great, but did manage to thro for 309 yards.
No one is giving the Jets defense the love it deserves after holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check. NY was very stingy versus the run, giving up just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Jackson, only had 17 rushing yards on 6 attempts.
That right there is probably the biggest reason I like New York in this game. I think the Browns are extremely one-dimensional with their run game until Watson gets back from suspension. If the Jets run defense can keep the Browns from racking up 1st downs on the ground, they not only are going to keep this within 7 but will be right there with a chance to win outright. Give me the Jets +7!
|09-17-22||Michigan State +3.5 v. Washington||28-39||Loss||-110||57 h 2 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Michigan State Spartans +3.5
I'll take my chances with No. 11 Michigan State catching 3.5 points on the road against Washington. Usually I look to go the other way when there's a ranked team catching points against an unranked opponent, but I think we are seeing Washington get a little too much respect after their 2-0 start.
No one saw the Huskies going 4-8 last year. People were not only picking them to win the Pac-12, but make the 4-team playoff before the season started. It just feels like everyone wants this team to be good and I think people are jumping back on the bandwagon after watching them dominate their first two opponents. They beat Kent State 45-20 as a 24-point favorite and rolled Portland State 52-6 as a 30-point favorite.
Not sure what beating either of those teams tells you about this team. To me there's still a lot this Cougars team has to do to prove they are for real.
Michigan State has also started 2-0 and yet it doesn't feel like anyone is taking this team all tha seriously despite their high ranking. A lot of that has to do with no one seeing a path for them to even win their own division in the Big Ten. It's all Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
I really like the Spartans head coach Mel Tucker and the direction he has this team headed. There were some concerns with the offense coming into this season after losing running back Kenneth Walker. So far he hasn't been missed. Redshirt freshman Jalen Berger has 227 yards on 33 attempts and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard has 135 on 25 carries. They got back starting QB Payton Thorne and a future NFL WR in Jayden Reed.
The big problem last year was the Michigan State secondary and I'm sure those struggles against the pass are going to convince some to lay it with Washington given how good Indiana transfer Michael Penix has looked to start the year. However, the Spartans returned 9 starters on defense and are much improved in the secondary. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm going into this expecting the Spartans to win. Give me Michigan State +3.5!
|09-17-22||Mississippi State v. LSU +2.5||Top||16-31||Win||100||55 h 20 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: LSU Tigers +2.5
I will gladly take the 2.5-points with LSU at home against Mississippi State on Saturday. I think we got a good buy-low spot on the Tigers, who lost a lot of the hype around them in their Week 1 loss to Florida State. I also think it's a decent sell-high spot with Mississippi State, who has started 2-0 with two really easy covers, beating Memphis 49-23 at home as a 17-point favorite and going on the road and beating Arizona 39-17 as a 12.5-point favorite.
I was on the Wildcats in that game last week and while I still feel like Arizona is going to be a good bet going forward, I think I got a little ahead of myself in that one. Wildcats still have a ways to go to compete with a talented SEC team like Mississippi State, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
I think it's going to be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bulldogs offense in this one. LSU's defense didn't play great in the loss to FSU, but well enough to win. I expect them to be flying around the field at home in this one.
I also think people are sleeping a little on this LSU offense. They are so much better at the QB position than they have been the last two years with ASU transfer Jayden Daniels. Thru two games, he's completed 78% of his attempts with a 5-0 TD-INT ratio and has also rushed for 132 yards (6.9 yards/carry).
I don't know if it's because LSU has been down some of late, but winning at Tiger Stadium in a prime time game like we have here (6 pm EST kickoff) is not easy. Let's also not forget that as bad as LSU was last year, they went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 28-25. Brian Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home dog in his 18+ years as a head coach (LSU was 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog last year). Give me the Tigers +2.5!
|09-17-22||Kansas +9 v. Houston||48-30||Win||100||53 h 18 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas Jayhawks +9
I will take my chances with Kansas as a 9-point road dog at Houston. Those that have followed this Jayhawks team closely would tell you that 2nd year head coach Lance Leipold is quietly taking Kansas from a doormat in the Big 12 to a team that can compete on the big stage against the top teams.
We saw it unfold a little bit at the end of last season. In their last 3 games, KU upset Texas on the road 57-56 as a 31-point dog, lost by just 3-points on the road at TCU as a 21-point dog and lost by 6 to WV as a 15-point dog.
It's continued into 2022. They annihilated Tennessee Tech 56-10 in their opener, covering as a 32-point favorite and then went on the road and beat West Virginia 55-42 as a 14-point dog.
While the win over the Mountaineers certainly caught the attention of people, it's going to take a lot more than that for the value to go away with Kansas. Teams like the Jayhawks that have been so bad for so long will continue to show value. I could see there being value with KU the entire rest of this season.
On the flip side of this, I came into this season thinking Houston was a big overrated and I really haven't seen anything to change my mind. Cougars are lucky they aren't 0-2. They trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before narrowly escaping with a 37-35 OT win at UTSA in Week 1. They then lost 30-33 in 2OT at Texas Tech last week. They were outgained 468 to 354 by the Red Raiders and 441-346 by UTSA.
You also got to wonder just how much gas Houston has left in the tank after going into overtime in each of their first two games. Kansas to me is a live dog in this one. Give me the Jayhawks +9!
|09-17-22||Troy +12.5 v. Appalachian State||Top||28-32||Win||100||53 h 51 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: Troy Trojans +12.5
I love the value with Troy as a 12.5-point dog on the road against Appalachian State. This to me is the perfect spot to sell-high on the Mountaineers, who are getting all kinds of love after narrowly losing to UNC 61-63 in Week 1 and then pulling off the massive upset on the road last week at Texas A&M as a 18.5-point underdog.
The betting public is going to be all over App State laying less than two touchdowns at home against a Troy team that hasn't really done anything to garner much attention, losing 28-10 at Ole Miss in Week 1 and then only beating Alabama A&M 38-17 as a 37.5-point favorite last week.
I'm personally really high on this Troy team in 2022. They are one of the more experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back (9 offense, 9 defense). I loved the hire of head coach Jon Sumrall, who was a co-DC at Kentucky last year.
This team more than held their own against the Rebels in the opener. They were only -87 in total yards (346-433) -4 in first downs (20-24).
I think with App State poised for a letdown after playing two close games against Power 5 teams in their first two games, not only makes Troy the play here but I give them a legit shot at pulling off the upset and winning this game outright. Give me the Trojans +12.5!
|09-17-22||Tulane +14 v. Kansas State||17-10||Win||100||52 h 17 m||Show|
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Tulane Green Wave +14
I will take my chances with Willie Fritz and Tulane catching two touchdowns on the road against Kansas State. Everyone is jumping on the Wildcats bandwagon this week after watching them absolutely destroy Missouri 40-12 last week as a mere 7-point favorite. In easily my worst bet of the weekend last week, I took the points with the Tigers in that game.
As much as I came away impressed with Kansas State in that game, I'm going against the Wildcats again this week.
I still have some real concerns with the Kansas State offense. They have been able to do whatever they want on the ground, rushing for 297 yards in the opener against South Dakota and 235 against Missouri. It's masked up some real inefficiencies in the passing game. Wildcats have a mere 196 passing yards in their first two games combined. Adrian Martinez was just 9 for 20 for 101 yards in the win over the Tigers.
The lack of passing game could really come back to haunt them in this game against a very underrated Tulane defense. They were the best defense in the AAC last year behind Cincinnati in the 2nd half of the year. They ended the year only giving up 3.9 yards/carry and return 9 starters on that side of the ball.
I know they have played two cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State, but they have allowed just 2.9 yards/carry against those two teams. I expect Tulane to load the box and force Martinez to beat them with his arm.
I also think the Tulane offense came into this season under the radar. They brought back 9 starters on that side of the ball as well. As good as that K-State defense is, I think they will be able to put points on the board.
Another important thing to note is this is not a great spot for the Wildcats. They got to be feeling really good about themselves after blowing out their rival Missouri and have a MONSTER game on deck at Oklahoma next week. Give me Tulane +14!
|09-17-22||Ohio +18.5 v. Iowa State||10-43||Loss||-110||51 h 17 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Ohio Bobcats +18.5
I'm going to roll the dice with Ohio as a 18.5-point road dog against Iowa State. I think we are getting some really good value here with the Bobcats catching this many points. It wasn't pretty last week for Ohio, who went on the road and got annihilated 46-10 at Penn State. It was every bit as ugly as the final score, as they were outgained 572 to 264.
That to me is as bad as this Ohio offense can play and it came against what I think is a much improved Penn State team that is not as behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East as some people think.
Keep in mind we saw Ohio put 41 points and 476 total yards in their Week 1 win over FAU. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw for 345 yards and 4 scores in that game.
As for Iowa State, this is a team that I think is down a notch or two from last year. Cyclones lost their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, one of the best running back in the country in Breece Hall and two stud tight ends. They also lost their top 4 tacklers on defense.
On top of that, I think this is an ideal spot to fade Iowa State coming off their emotional 10-7 win over in-state rival Iowa last week. It snapped a 6-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes and was their first win over Iowa under head coach Matt Campbell.
ISU's defense did hold Iowa to just 150 total yards, but don't read anything into that. That Hawkeyes offense is absolutely horrible. They are starting a guy at QB that I'm not sure would start anywhere else in the country. They also played one of the worst FCS teams in their opener in SE Missouri State. I really think the Bobcats are going to keep this score close and if they can manage to win the turnover battle, they could pull off the upset. Give me Ohio +18.5!
|09-17-22||Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse||29-32||Loss||-106||49 h 19 m||Show|
9* NCAAF Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR: Purdue Boilermakers +1.5
I'm going to take Purdue as a 1.5-point road dog at Syracuse on Saturday. I came into this season with a lot of concerns with the Boilermakers. Most notably how they would replace losing a guy like WR David Bell on the offensive side of the ball and a guy like George Karlaftis on the defensive side.
From what I've seen in the first two games, I don't see them as concerns at all for Purdue. Jeff Brohm has really built this program up and he's got one of the best non dual threat QBs in the country in Aidan O'Connell. He had over 3,700 yards and 28 TDs in 2021 and didn't start the first 4 games. He threw for 365 yards in the opener against Penn State.
As for replacing Bell, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has taken over that role as the No. 1 threat. Jones has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs.
Defensively they don't have another Karlaftis on the field, but the overall talent is very good. I thought the defensive line more than held their own against a very good Nittany Lions offense. Most of the damage done by Penn State came via the passing game. Nittany Lions had just 98 rushing yards on 32 attempts. I know it was against a MAC team, but worth noting that Penn State had 234 rushing yards on 34 attempts against Ohio last week.
Their ability to slow down the run game is a big reason I like them in this matchup. I know the Orange come in averaging 276 passing yards/game, but a lot of that was aided with the 309 yards they put up on an awful UConn defense last week. Syracuse is still a run first team behind Sean Tucker. They are averaging 46 rush attempts to just 26 pass attempts. I think if they get into a situation here where they have to pass playing from behind, this could really spiral out of control for them.
Defensively the Orange look really good on paper coming into this game, as they are giving up just 10.5 ppg and 268 ypg. Again those numbers were aided by playing UConn, but they did hold Louisville to just 7 points in their opener. Some of that was Louisville beating themselves with turnovers, but we also saw the Cardinals offense struggle to produce last week against UCF.
The other big thing for me is this Syracuse defense is built more to stop the run. Last year they gave up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run, but allowed opposing QBs to complete 66% of their passes. In their two games this year against Louisville and UConn, they have given up a ridiculous 33 completions on 42 pass attempts, which comes out to a 78.6% completion rate. I think O'Connell and the Boilermakers elite passing attack will have a field day in this one. Give me Purdue +1.5!
|09-15-22||Chargers v. Chiefs -4||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||33 h 38 m||Show|
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4
I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play.
Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has.
What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead.
Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4!
|09-12-22||Broncos v. Seahawks +7||16-17||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
8* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +7
Not a huge bet for me, but I'll throw some cash on the Seahawks catching a touchdown at home against the Broncos. I'm not as high on Denver as some others. Russell Wilson is without a doubt an upgrade at quarterback. I just don't think it's a lock he comes in and this offense just takes off.
Much like his days in Seattle, Wilson will be taking snaps behind another poor offensive line. I also don't think it's close in terms of the talent he has in the passing game. Sutton and Jeudy have some promise, but they aren't on the same level as Metcalf and Lockett. I also worry about that offensive line in a hostile road environment. Not only is MNF, but this game means more given the history with Wilson.
Seattle isn't getting any love coming into this season. That should have them coming out in this one with a huge chip on their shoulder. Geno Smith is far from elite, but he's not horrible and this should be one of the better rushing teams in the league. Denver's run defense was a weakness last year and I don't see it being all that improved. Give me the Seahawks +7!
|09-11-22||Raiders v. Chargers -3||Top||19-24||Win||100||96 h 3 m||Show|
10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3
I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line.
Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa.
On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games.
I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3!
|09-11-22||Ravens -6.5 v. Jets||24-9||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Baltimore Ravens -6.5
I got no problem laying the 6.5 on the road with Baltimore in Week 1, as they will fly to New York to take on the Jets. I know people aren't exactly dogging on the Ravens coming into this season, but I don't think they are getting near the respect they deserve. People forget about all the injuries they had to overcome last year. They finished just 8-9 and had 6 losses decided by fewer than a touchdown, including 5 by 3 or fewer.
Lamar Jackson is special and I look for him to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing season last year. On the defense, I expect the Ravens to be one of the top units in the league. They were No. 1 last year against the run, but were dead last against the pass. They won't be last against the pass again. They get back stud corner Marcus Peters after he missed all of last year, added in a really good safety in Marcus Williams and used a 1st round pick on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton.
You also have a Jets team that I think is a year away from competing. Yes, New York had a great draft this offseason, but expecting all those guys to come in and contribute at the level needed right away is asking a lot. They are also starting the season without Zach Wilson at quarterback and instead will be sending the old and washed up Joe Flacco. I don't see that offense being able to much of anything against this Ravens defense. Give me Baltimore -6.5!
|09-11-22||Browns v. Panthers -1||26-24||Loss||-120||93 h 36 m||Show|
9* NFL - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers -1
I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a slim -1 home favorite against the Browns. I don't think Carolina is getting near the respect they deserve to start the season. They are one of my favorite sleeper teams coming into 2022. I not only think they will be in the playoff picture, but I give them an outside shot of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay still has Tom Brady, but he's one year older and playing behind a much worse offensive line. The Saints got a ton of talent, but no longer have Sean Payton to steer that offense. The Falcons are in full on rebuild mode.
Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, he's a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for Carolina. Last year the Panthers had to make do with either Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or PJ Walker under center. Combined those 3 had a horrific 14 to 21 TD to INT ratio. Mayfield, who everyone was ragging on last year had a 17-13 TD-INT ratio and did that playing at less than 100%. A lot of people forget how good Mayfield was when he was healthy in 2020, throwing for over 3,500 yards with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio.
Not only do they get an upgrade at quarterback, but at least to start the season they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey at running back. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, but in 2019 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also catching 116 passes for 1,005 yards and 4 scores.
They get back their top two WRs in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, while also adding in one of Mayfields old teammates in Rashad Higgins and trading for Laviska Shenault, who has 121 catches for 1,219 yards in two seasons playing for a bad Jaguars team.
Not to mention they completely revamped their offensive line and should be greatly improved up front.
I also don't think people realize how good this Panthers defense was last year. While they ranked a mere 21st in scoring defense, giving up 23.8 ppg, they were No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 305.9 ypg. They had the No. 4 ranked pass defense, despite losing stud rookie 1st round corner Jaycee Horn to an injury after just 3 games.
As for the Browns, they got some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, they are going to be limited offensively with Jacoby Brissett. I really think they are going to be a little too one dimensional with the run game and really struggle to win games early on in the year. Give me the Panthers -1!
|09-11-22||Steelers +6.5 v. Bengals||Top||23-20||Win||100||92 h 30 m||Show|
10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year.
Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter.
He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed.
They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact.
The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks.
I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5!
|09-10-22||Mississippi State v. Arizona +10.5||39-17||Loss||-110||79 h 58 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Arizona Wildcats +10.5
I will take my chances with the Wildcats as a 10.5-point home dog against Mississippi State late Saturday night. I backed Arizona as a 6.5-point road dog in Week 1 at San Diego State and they won that game 38-20.
I mentioned in my analysis for that play that I thought Arizona was being extremely undervalued coming into this season and one win is not going to change that after last year's 1-11 campaign. The Wildcats could end up being one of the most improved teams in the country with the influx of talent they added to their roster and now being in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch.
The biggest upgrade for the Wildcats came at quarterback, where they landed Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura, who led the Pac-12 in passing last year. He was outstanding in their win over the Aztecs, throwing for 299 yards and 4 scores. Arizona also had 162 yards on the ground.
So while I think Mississippi State is a really good football team and poised to make improvements of their own in 2022, I think they are a bit overpriced coming into this one and if they don't play up to their full potential could easily lose this one outright. Give me Arizona +10.5!
|09-10-22||Boston College v. Virginia Tech -2.5||10-27||Win||100||76 h 47 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5
I'll take my chances with the Hokies as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Boston College this Saturday. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Va Tech off their upset loss in Week 1, where they lost 17-20 at Old Dominion.
It certainly wasn't the way new head coach Brent Pry wanted to start his tenure in Blacksburg, but it wasn't all bad. Pry, who came over after his great run as the DC at Penn State the past 6 years, had the Hokies defense ready to play. Virginia Tech held the Monarchs to just 249 total yards with just 165 thru the air and 84 on the ground.
They lost the game because they committed 14 penalties for 100 yards and had 5 turnovers. Those mistakes can be corrected and playing at home in Week 2 should certainly help in that department.
I played against BC in their opener, as I had Rutgers +7 and the Scarlet Knights won that game outright 22-21. The Eagles could only manage 312 total yards and were one dimensional with just 29 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The defense wasn't a whole lot better, as they let Rutgers come into their stadium and put up over 200 yards (5.0 yards/carry) against them.
Eagles in my opinion are getting too much respect from the books and the public because they have a decent QB in Phil Jurkovec. There's just not enough talent around him for BC to be a real threat in the ACC and I especially see them struggling this year on the road. Give me the Hokies -2.5!
|09-10-22||Virginia v. Illinois -4.5||3-24||Win||100||72 h 0 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Illinois Fighting Illini -4.5
I'll take my chances with Illinois laying 4.5 at home against Virginia. I'm really high on the Fighting Illini in 2022. They made massive improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema last year and I have all the confidence in him getting this team to a bowl game and pulling off an upset or two in the Big Ten this season.
I had one of my strongest plays of the entire season on Illinois in Week Zero at home against Wyoming. I bet them at -10 roughly a month before the season even started and that one was never in doubt. The Fighting Illini won that game 38-6.
I was tempted to go right back with them last week as a small dog against Indiana, but I felt it was going to be a bit of a tricky spot for them in their first true road game in a prime time Friday night matchup. It ended up being a good call, as Indiana won the game 23-20 on a late TD drive, but that's a game Illinois should have won. They outgained the Hoosiers 448 to 362 and dominated time of possession. They had 4 turnovers and were 0-2 on 4th down or they win that thing by double-digits.
I believe that loss has created some value here with Illinois laying less than a touchdown against the Cavaliers. Virginia defeated Richmond 34-17 and put up over 505 total yards, but that's about how it should have gone. I know the Cavaliers return one of the top signal callers in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, but only 3 other starters were back on the offensive side of the ball. They lost all 5 starters on the defensive line and that's where I think the struggles will start for them against a talented Illinois front.
On the flip side of this, I think Illinois' offense will be able to do as they please against this Virginia defense. The Cavaliers lost 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a defense that struggled in 2021, giving up 31.8 ppg and 466 ypg.
Something else to note about that defense, is how bad they played on the road. In their 5 true road games they gave up a staggering 46.8 ppg and 563.4 ypg. As long as Illinois takes better care of the football and they should, I think they easily win this game by double-digits. Give me Illinois -4.5!
|09-10-22||Houston v. Texas Tech -3||30-33||Push||0||72 h 57 m||Show|
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3
I will take my chances with the Red Raiders as a slim 3-point home favorite against No. 25 ranked Houston in Week 2. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, it gets my attention, as the betting public will almost always take the points with the ranked team. It tells me the books really like what they see out of the favorite and I'm 100% on board with the books in this one.
After struggling to put away FCS teams the past couple of seasons, Texas Tech opened the 2022 season with a 63-10 blowout win over Murray State. They lost starting quarterback Tyler Shough in that win, but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and played great. Smith went 14 of 16 for 221 yards and 4 scores.
I'm expecting big things out of this offense under new offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who did a remarkable job last year turning around a Western Kentucky offense. The Hilltoppers only managed 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg in 2020. With Kittley calling the shots they improved to 44.2 ppg and 535 ypg.
Not only am I high on Texas Tech coming into the season, I'm also down on the Cougars. They were extremely fortunate to win their opener at UTSA, as they trailed 7-21 going into the 4th quarter before eventually winning 37-35 in 3OT. Cougars were outgained in that game 441 to 346.
I look for Houston to have a hard time keeping pace with the Red Raiders on the road. Give me Texas Tech -3!
|09-10-22||Tennessee -6.5 v. Pittsburgh||Top||34-27||Win||100||72 h 30 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Revenge PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Volunteers -6.5
I'll take my chances with Tennessee as a 6.5-point road favorite against Pittsburgh on Saturday. This line might seem a bit off to some. The Panthers are No. 17 in the country and fresh off a big win at home against West Virginia, yet are an underdog at home against No. 24 Tennessee. I couldn't agree more with the line. In fact, I think it's a bit of a steal getting the Vols at less than a touchdown.
It's why you can't pay too much attention to the rankings this early in the season. Too much of it is based on what a team did the previous year. I think when it's all said and done, the Vols will be at the very least a Top 15 and maybe even a Top 10 team, while I could see the Panthers struggling to stay in the Top 25.
I know Pitt got a great addition at quarterback in USC transfer Kedon Slovis to offset the loss of one of their all-time best quarterbacks in program history in Kenny Pickett, but I don't see this team coming close to the 41.4 ppg and 487 ypg they put up last year. They put up 38 in the win over West Virginia, but only managed 384 total yards and the defense scored 7 of those 38 on a 56 yd interception returned for a TD. If they don't get that pick six, they probably lose that game.
As for Tennessee, I think they are the verge of taking a massive step forward after shocking everyone in 2021, going 7-6 in the first year under head coach Josh Heupel. That was with the roster in complete turmoil going into the season.
Now they got 15 starters back, including one of the SEC's best signal callers in Hendon Hooker, who sparked quite a turnaround for the Vols offense last year. Tennessee went from averaging 21.5 ppg and 346 ypg in 2021 to putting up 39.3 ppg and 475 ypg.
They looked to be in midseason form in Week 1, as they put up 59 points and 569 yards in a blowout win over Ball State and that was them calling off the dogs after taking a 45-0 lead early in the 3rd quarter.
The defense did give up 29.1 ppg and 422 ypg last year, but keep in mind some of that is a result of just how fast the play on offense. Not many teams are going to be equipped to keep pace. Give me the Vols -6.5!
|09-10-22||Missouri +8 v. Kansas State||12-40||Loss||-110||68 h 1 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Missouri Tigers +8
I will gladly take my chances with Missouri as a 8-point road dog against Kansas State. These two will renew their rivalry (known as the Border War), as they have not played since 2011. Always like getting a dog who I think can win outright in a rivalry game and not only are we getting points, we are getting over a touchdown.
Kansas State really did what we expected in their opener, cruising to a 34-0 win against South Dakota. Usually a 34-point win would suggest a massive edge in total yards, but the Wildcats only outgained South Dakota 392 to 270. The even bigger thing that stands out to me is 297 of those yards came on the ground. K-State had just 95 passing yards.
Maybe they didn't want to put anything on tape, but I think some of it just speaks to the limitations that Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez has throwing the ball.
Missouri played a much tougher opponent in Louisiana Tech and won that game 52-24 with a 558 to 347 edge in total yards. Most of the damage for the Bulldogs came thru the air, as they had 336 yards passing. One thing to note is that while Missouri gave up a lot of yards, they did have 3 interceptions.
They also held La Tech to just 11 rushing yards on 22 attempts. I don't think that's just them playing a bad team. Missouri added a lot up front. They brought in 4 transfers from Power 5 programs and a 2x FCS AA. Not to mention return one of the better SEC duos at DE in Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat.
If Missouri's defense can hold their own, I like the offense to do enough to keep this thing close and give them a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. Give me Missouri +8!
|09-09-22||Louisville +6.5 v. Central Florida||Top||20-14||Win||100||71 h 36 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Louisville Cardinals +6.5
I'll take my chances with Louisville covering the 6.5 on the road against UCF Friday night in Orlando. My only loser this past Saturday was on Louisville -4.5 at Syracuse and it wasn't close. The Orange ended up winning that game going away 31-7.
With that said, Louisville did themselves no favors in that contest. Midway thru the 2nd quarter the Cardinals had 1st & Goal from the Syracuse 7 trailing 7-17. They ended up going for it on 4th down and failed to convert. They also had three straight possessions in the 2nd half with the game still within reach where they turned it over. The first two via interception and the other a fumble. The latter two of those turnovers resulting in the Orange scoring touchdowns on a short field to get to the final score of 31-7.
It was about as bad as starting quarterback Malik Cunningham could play and you just have to wonder if there was a lack of respect from Louisville. Keep in mind they annihilated the Orange last year 41-3 late in the season.
Not only do I think there's some value built into this line because of how bad it appears Louisville played last week, but also because of how good UCF looked. The Knights beat South Carolina State 56-10 with a ridiculous 600 to 91 edge in total yards. I think we are getting at least 3.5 points of value here, as my numbers make this UCF -3. Give me Louisville +6.5!
|09-05-22||Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech||Top||41-10||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
10* NCAAF - Clemson/Ga Tech MAX UNIT Top Play: Clemson Tigers -23
I'll take my chances with Clemson as a 23-point favorite against the Yellow Jackets in Monday's Labor Day standalone game. Last year was a down year for the Tigers and they still managed to win 10 games. There's a lot of people wondering where Clemson will go in 2022 after losing two of the best coordinators in the country. Not me. Dabo Swinney has done a remarkable job of hiring coordinators in his tenure at Clemson and I like both new OC Brandon Streeter and DC Wes Goodwin.
The offense simply can't be as bad as it was last year and people forget that this is an offense that scored 30 or more in 5 straight games to close out the regular-season. Whether it's DJ Uiagalelei or freshman Cade Klubnik, I expect much better play from the quarterback position. It will help facing what may be the worst defense in the ACC in Georgia Tech, who returns just 3 starters from a unit that gave up 33.5 ppg and 455 ypg in 2021.
I also don't think there's enough talk about this Clemson defensive line. It's as good a unit as they have had, right on par with that elite group from 2018. That front will be going up against a inexperienced Georgia Tech offense and a quarterback in Jeff Sims that is more a threat with his legs than his arm. This to me has blowout written all over it! Give me Clemson -23!
|09-03-22||Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5||Top||17-34||Win||100||54 h 26 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oregon State Beavers -2.5
I will gladly take my chances with the Beavers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. Don't get me wrong, Boise State is one of the better teams in the Mountain West, but just because they got 17 returning starters I don't think it's a lock they are going to be this elite team that contends for a New Year's 6 bowl.
Chris Petersen built quite the empire in Boise and they had a great hire to replace him in Bryan Harsin. I don't know if I feel the same way about 2nd year head coach Andy Avalos. Sure it was his first year, but he inherited a team that brought back 17 starters and only was able to muster a 7-5 record.
Given all that, this is more a play on the Beavers at this price than anything. Oregon State was committed to the vision of head coach Jonathan Smith and it paid off with a 7-6 season in 2021. The first winning record for the Beavers since 2013. Smith and OC Brian Lindgren have really created a dynamic offensive attack and I think they could come close to replicating last year's team that finished with 31.2 ppg and 429 ypg.
Defensively there is also a lot of optimism under new defensive coordinator Trent Bray, who sparked quite the turnaround after filling in as the interim DC last year after Tim Tibesar was let go. They got 9 starters back on that side of the ball and should be improved (allowed only 25.8 ppg and 387 ypg in 2021).
If Oregon stumbles at all in the first year under new head coach Dan Lanning and Washington doesn't rebound like many are expecting, they could shock everyone and win the Pac-12 North. Give me the Beavers -2.5!
|09-03-22||Louisville -4 v. Syracuse||Top||7-31||Loss||-115||52 h 55 m||Show|
10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Louisville Cardinals -4
I'll take my chances with the Cardinals as a mere -4 favorite on the road against Syracuse in Week 1. I just think the Orange are getting a little too much respect in this one. Yes this is a team that improved a ton in 2021 going from a 1-10 season in 2020 to just missing out on a bowl at 5-7. Most will just assume another step in the right direction with 17 returning starters. One of those being one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker.
I just think the offense was a little too dependent on Tucker and teams started to figure them out down the stretch (scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5). They get back 8 starters on defense, but lose all 3 starters from a defensive line that was a huge strength last year.
The other big thing for me is I really like the direction that Louisville is going under head coach Scott Satterfield. This was a team that had a very misleading 6-7 record in 2021. They had three different games where they lost on the final play. They also had a lead going in the 4th quarter of a loss at NC State.
The Cardinals bring back 14 starters and might have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Malik Cunningham. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's also not far off. Cunningham threw for almost 3,000 yards with a 19-6 TD-INT ratio and led the team with 1,031 rushing yards, scoring 20 rushing TDs and averaging 6.0 yards/carry. Playing behind one of the best o-lines in the ACC, I could see Louisville scoring 40+ ppg.
The defense is what really held this team back in 2021. It didn't helped they lost two of their better defenders to injury in linebacker Monty Montgomery and corner Kei'Trel Clark. I think they are going to be improved on all 3 levels. If they can contain Tucker and force Syracuse to throw more than they would like, this could really get ugly. Either way I like the Cardinals to cash. Give me Louisville -4!
|09-03-22||Arizona +6.5 v. San Diego State||38-20||Win||100||47 h 24 m||Show|
8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Arizona Wildcats +6.5
I'm willing to roll the dice with Arizona as a 6.5-pt road dog against San Diego State on Saturday. A lot of people are going to look at this line and without hesitation run to the ticket window to bet the Aztecs. Arizona is coming off a 1-11 season, while San Diego State is coming off a 12-2 campaign.
What a lot of people don't realize is how much better this Wildcats team figures to be in 2022. A big part of that is the addition of transfer quarterback Jayden De Laura, who comes over from Washington State. He led the Pac-12 in both touchdowns (23) and passing yards (2,789) during the regular season. They also added a very talented transfer WR in UTEP's Jacob Cowing. They also got experience back on the offensive line and at running back.
Defensively they got what I feel is a big upgrade at defensive coordinator. They got rid of Don Brown and replaced him with UCLA's Johnny Nansen, who played a big role in the Bruins defensive revival the past few seasons.
As for San Diego State, they got some nice pieces and figure to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. I just think they are going to take a step back overall. Keep in mind they were on the right side of several close calls with 6 wins by 8 or fewer points. They also don't have the weapon that was punter Matt Araiza, who couldn't have made life any easier on that defense with how easily he could flip the field. Give me Arizona +6.5!
|09-03-22||Cincinnati v. Arkansas -6.5||24-31||Win||100||47 h 23 m||Show|
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5
I got no problem laying the 6.5 at home with the Razorbacks as they open up the 2022 season against Cincinnati. Arkansas had one of the most unlikely and remarkable one-year turnarounds in the country last year. The Razorbacks went just 3-7 in the shortened 2020 season, which was also the first under head coach Sam Pittman. Most had them picked to finish last in the SEC West. They instead went 9-4, which included a bowl win over Penn State, a non-conference thrashing of Texas (40-21) and a upset win over a Top 10 Texas A&M team (20-10).
A big reason for the turnaround was the emergence of quarterback KJ Jefferson, who threw for 2,676 yards with a 21-4 TD/INT ratio and led the team with 664 rushing yards. With Jefferson back and the Razorbacks expected to field one of the best o-lines in the country, I could easily see them topping last year's 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg.
There are some questions on the defensive side of the ball, where just 4 starters are back, but I like their defensive coordinator (Barry Odom). After having to make do with what was left over from the previous regime in 2020, Arkansas allowed just 22.9 ppg and 367 ypg in 2021.
As for Cincinnati, I think it's time to sell-high after last year's playoff run. This isn't Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State or Clemson where they can just reload. Their not going to fall off a cliff either, but regression has to be expected. On offense the Bearcats lose not only their star quarterback in Desmond Ridder, but also their top rusher and receiver. Defensively they lost 6 guys to the NFL and are surely going to take not just a small step back but a pretty big one. Give me Arkansas -6.5!