|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-03-22||Rutgers +7 v. Boston College||22-21||Win||100||44 h 52 m||Show|
8* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rutgers +7)
I think we are getting some big time value with Rutgers catching a touchdown on the road against Boston College in Week 1. I think at the most the Eagles should be laying a field goal in this game. Greg Schiano doesn't get near the respect he deserves for how quickly he's got the Scarlet Knights turned around in his second stint with the program.
Schiano took over a team that had won just 9 games in 4 seasons under previous head coach Chris Ash. They went just 3-6 in Schiano's first year, but improved to 5-8. While they are still a long way from the top of the Big Ten, they were a much more competitive team than they had been.
They might still be another year away from really breaking out, but I don't see them reverting back in 2022, even with some of the pieces they lost.
As for Boston College, I just think they are a bit overrated coming into 2022. A lot of people like to look at the QB position and what a team has coming back to make their assessment of how good the team will be. The Eagles have a guy that deservedly garners some respect in Phil Jurkovec. The problem I have is the offensive line. BC lost 4 of their 5 starters up front. Something I think could prove to be a real issue in this game, as Rutgers strength defensively is their defensive line. Give me the Scarlet Knights +7!
|09-01-22||Penn State -3 v. Purdue||Top||35-31||Win||100||141 h 28 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Penn St -3
I'm well aware of Purdue's track record as an underdog at home in big games, but I just have to take my shot with Penn State at -3 in this one. I think Purdue is getting way too much respect coming into this season after last year's 9-win campaign.
While the Boilermakers return 14 starters, including quarterback Adan O'Connell, they lose their top 3 wide outs. One of those being their best offensive player in wideout David Bell. They also lose two of their best defensive players in linebacker Jaylan Alexander and defensive end George Karlaftis.
I'm not saying Purdue will fall off a cliff like we saw with say Indiana last year, I just don't see them being as good. I also think Penn State might be one of the most underrated teams in the country.
The Nittany Lions were ranked as high as #4 last year before starting quarterback Sean Clifford went down with an injury against Iowa. They lost a crazy 9OT game the next week against Illinois and lost the following time out against Ohio State. They later lost by 3 at home to Michigan and by 3 on the road at Michigan State. Of their 5 losses, 4 came against teams that were ranked in the Top 12 at the time they played them.
Clifford is back and I think they are going to surprise some people on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they made a huge hire by bringing in Miami's Manny Diaz to be the new defensive coordinator. With the talent Penn State has on that side of the ball, I think that defense could be even better than the unit last year that only gave up 17.3 ppg. Give me Penn State -3!
|08-27-22||Wyoming v. Illinois -10||Top||6-38||Win||100||502 h 7 m||Show|
10* NCAAF Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Illinois -10)
I will gladly lay the -10 with Illinois at home against Wyoming in Week Zero. I don't think this Illini team is getting anywhere close to the respect they deserve. They made some pretty sizeable improvements in year one under head coach Bret Bielema's first year on the job in 2021. They won 5 games with 4 of those wins coming in Big Ten play. They could have been even better with 3 close losses.
I think they are ready to take another big step forward in 2022. Last year they featured a strong running game, but offered little to no threat in the passing game. The ground game should be just as good and they brought in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. He's nothing special, but a huge upgrade over what they had.
Illinois also brought in UTSA's Barry Lunney to be their new OC. He had the Roadrunners ranked in the Top 10 in the country last year in scoring. He's not only going to pick up the pace, but it should lead to a few more big plays.
Wyoming is coming off a solid 7-6 season in 2021, but lose a lot from that team. They only have 8 starters back total (4 on each side of the ball). They will have to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and top 2 receivers on offense. They lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, including their leader in Chan Muma, whose 142 tackles were 52 more than the next best on the team.
I not only think the Illini cover the 10, but I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Illinois -10!
|02-13-22||Rams -4 v. Bengals||Top||23-20||Loss||-105||8 h 59 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4)
I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game.
Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4!
|01-30-22||Bengals v. Chiefs -7||Top||27-24||Loss||-107||6 h 46 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary.
They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7!
|01-23-22||Bills v. Chiefs -1||36-42||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Bills/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -1)
I will gladly take my chances here with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at basically a pick'em at home against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown. Everyone has fallen in love with Josh Allen and the Bills after what they did to the Pats last week. Allen basically threw the equivalent of a perfect game in baseball. How many guys do you see throw perfect games in back-to-back games.
I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Allen and company on the road against a much improved Chiefs defense. I know the Bills won at KC earlier this season, but that was back in Week 5. At that point the Chiefs were on pace to be one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history and the offense was struggling to do anything.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have figured things out and this is the time of year where they play their best football. Crazy to think, but KC is going to have the chip on their shoulder with all this talk about Buffalo. Give me the Chiefs -1!
|01-22-22||49ers +6 v. Packers||Top||13-10||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6)
I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins.
I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago.
The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6!
|01-17-22||Cardinals v. Rams -3.5||Top||11-34||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5)
I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here.
I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5!
|01-10-22||Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama||Top||33-18||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - National Championship MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -2.5)
I love Georgia laying less than a field goal against Alabama in the title game. I was pretty set on being on the Bulldogs in this game, as I knew there was going to be great value with Georgia after how badly they lost to Alabama in the SEC title game.
What everyone overlooks with how the SEC title game played out, was the fact that the Bulldogs weren't nearly as invested in the outcome as Alabama. Winning a conference title would be a big deal for a lot of programs, but Georgia is to the point that all they care about is winning the whole thing. They have been so close and came up short.
To them, it didn't matter if they won that game. This is the only game that matters. I think we saw the difference in energy and effort from Georgia in their semifinal game against Michigan. This Bulldogs team was the best in the country this year and I think that defense will be much better prepared for Bryce Young and the Alabama offense the second time around. Give me Georgia -2.5!
|01-09-22||Chargers -3 v. Raiders||Top||32-35||Loss||-109||103 h 31 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3)
I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end.
I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs.
The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play.
Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards.
The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game.
I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3!
|01-09-22||Saints -4 v. Falcons||30-20||Win||100||73 h 6 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -4)
I will gladly take my chances with the Saints as a mere 4-point road favorite against the Falcons. New Orleans needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs, but it's definitely a possibility. The Saints need the 49ers to lose at the Rams and LA needs to win that game to lock up the NFC West and No. 2 seed in the NFC.
The Falcons aren't a very good team and in a really bad spot, having just watched their playoff hopes come to an end with last week's loss at Buffalo. I just don't see Atlanta being all that interested in this game and I also think that Falcons offense is in for a long day against a Saints defense that is really playing well down the stretch. Give me New Orleans -4!
|01-08-22||Chiefs -11 v. Broncos||28-24||Loss||-103||49 h 22 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Chiefs/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -11)
I'm laying the big number with the Chiefs on the road against the Broncos. I get this is a division game and these two fanbases can't stand each other, but KC is the only team with something to play for, they are clearly the better team and they are decimated with injuries to close out the year.
Denver won't have starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and while Drew Lock isn't horrible, he does tend to force some things and turn the ball over. Denver's defense will also have to try to contain Patrick Mahomes and the CHiefs high-powered offense without their two starting corners.
Chiefs need to win this game to ensure they get at least the No. 2 seed and keep their slim hopes alive for that No. 1 seed (need Titans to lose at Texans). I really like how this team has been playing down the stretch, despite last week's slip up against the Bengals. I don't think this game is close for long. Give me KC -11!
|01-04-22||LSU v. Kansas State -3.5||20-42||Win||100||82 h 9 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Texas Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Kansas St -3.5)
I don't see how you don't roll the dice on the Wildcats laying this short of number against LSU (I put this play in last week before the line moved a ton. I still like K-State up to -7). I just don't think we are going to get a great effort or showing out of LSU in this game. The Tigers are going to be led by offensive line coach Brad Davis. Does he really know how to get a team ready for a bowl game?
If that wasn't going to be hard enough, LSU's starting quarterback, Max Johnson, won't play after entering the transfer portal. They are going to be potentially be sending out a freshman or even a walk-on to play the most important position.
Kansas State on the other hand is expected to have their starting quarterback, Skylar Thompson back from an injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale. I also am a big fan of Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman. I'm confident he will have his team ready to go and keep in mind while LSU is down, it's a big deal for these other Power 5 teams when they get a shot at a top-tier program like the Tigers. Give me Kansas State -3.5!
|01-03-22||Browns v. Steelers -2.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5)
I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play.
I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh.
Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home.
I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5!
|01-02-22||Cardinals v. Cowboys -5||25-22||Loss||-110||99 h 17 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -5)
This feels like a massive square play, but I can't help myself. I just think there's some value here with the Cowboys laying less than a touchdown at home against the Cardinals. I was on Arizona in last week's loss at home to the Colts.
I really thought we were going to see that team respond in a big way after that embarrassing loss to the Lions. Instead they can't beat a Colts team that lost 80% of their offensive line and best player on defense. I don't think people realize how hard it is for a team to compete with that much turnover in such a short period of time on the offensive line.
To me the only think you can do right now is keep betting against the Cardinals, at least until they show us anything that makes you think they are the team we thought they were in their 7-0 start to the season. They remind me a lot of the Steelers team from last year, who had a bit of a fraudulent 11-0 start before ending the regular season 1-4 over their final 5 games.
The other big thing for me is that I believe the Cowboys have got some of that swagger back offensively. If Dak doesn't get hurt and go through that midseason lull, the media wouldn't be able to stop talking about this unit. I also think they got a very underrated defense that has a lot of guys who are really good at getting after the quarterback.
I think the Cowboys will be out to make a statement in what feels like their final tune-up before the postseason. I think if they lay a dud down the stretch, it's next week at Philly when maybe the rest some guys. Give me Dallas -5!
|01-02-22||Chiefs -4 v. Bengals||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||26 h 55 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4)
I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best.
I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes.
I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4!
|01-01-22||Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State||45-48||Win||100||73 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Utah/Ohio St ROSE BOWL MASSACRE (Utah +4.5)
I've made a lot of profit fading teams like Ohio State in bowl games and will gladly fade the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl against what I think is an underrated and motivated Utah team.
Ohio State went into their regular-season finale against Michigan knowing that if they won, they needed to just beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, which they would have, and they would be playing on New Years Eve in the College Football playoff.
They aren't going to be excited about beating Utah. It's pretty evident they don't care with all the guys that opted out.
On the flip side of this, the Utes are going to be extremely excited to solidify their Pac-12 title with a win over an elite program like Ohio State. Not to mention it's the first time they will be participating in the Rose Bowl under Kyle Winningham. With how much these bowl games comes down to who is the more motivated team, I not only think Utah covers, I like them to win the game outright. Give me the Utes +4.5!
|01-01-22||Kentucky v. Iowa +3||20-17||Push||0||72 h 58 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Citrus Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Iowa +3)
I don't think Iowa should be catching points in this one, so this was really an easy call for me with them getting a field goal. The Hawkeyes laid an egg in the Big Ten title game against Michigan. They competed for about a half, but in the end just got beat by a much better team.
I think if Wisconsin would have beat Minnesota and not allowed Iowa to backdoor into the Big Ten title game, the outlook would be a lot different on this team.
I also don't think there's going to be any kind of letdown from losing that game, as that wasn't a win and make the playoff scenario. If anything, I believe it will leave a sour taste in their mouth and have them excited to play on New Years Day.
The other big thing is the matchup. Iowa's biggest weakness is a quarterback that can attack their zone, especially if they have a big time talent at wide receiver. That's not Kentucky. The Wildcats are a very run heavy team.
Slowing down the run game is what this Iowa defense does best and when they do that they tend to force turnovers in bunches. Don't be surprised if that Hawkeyes defense does just that in this game, as the Wildcats had 5 games this season where they had 3 or more turnovers.
Iowa's top running back Tyler Goodson has opted out, but I don't think there's a huge drop off from him to the backups. Iowa has won and covered each of their last 3 bowl games, including a 27-22 win over Mississippi State in the 2018 Outback Bowl as a 7-point dog. Give me the Hawkeyes +3!
|01-01-22||Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame -1.5||Top||37-35||Loss||-110||572 h 60 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Fiesta Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Notre Dame -1.5)
I really like the Irish laying less than a field goal against Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday. I'm usually a little skeptic on backing a team that lost their head coach, but Brian Kelly leaving for the job at LSU is not the end of the world. Notre Dame is in good hands with Marcus Freeman and these players seem to really enjoy playing for him.
I also think this Notre Dame team is one of the most underrated teams in the country to end the year. The only blemish on the schedule for the Irish was a 13-24 loss to Cincinnati, who is in the 4-team playoff. This team closed out the season outscoring their final 4 opponents 131 to 21.
The Irish will have to go to battle without running back Kyren Williams, but I don't think they need to be prolific offensively to win here by at least a field goal. The Notre Dame defense figures to make life miserable for a very average Oklahoma State offense. I'm not a big fan of quarterback Spencer Sanders.
I also question how motivated the Cowboys are for this game. While they probably wouldn't of made it had they won, they went into their Big 12 title game against Baylor with an outside shot of making the 4-team playoff. Any time a team comes that close to the playoffs and doesn't get the invite, I don't know that there's any bowl game that will have them really excited to play. Give me the Irish -1.5!
|12-31-21||Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan||34-11||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Georgia/Michigan ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia -7.5)
Hats off to John Harbaugh for finally getting Michigan over the hump and into the 4-team playoff, but I'm not as bullish on the Wolverines chances in the playoffs as others.
I just think with how good Michigan looked in the win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale and against Iowa in the Big Ten title game, combined with how bad Georgia looked against Alabama in the SEC title game, it's got everyone wanting to take Michigan and the points.
I don't really get it. Prior to losing to Alabama, most had Georgia on a pedestal above the rest of the teams. Everyone was on them to win and cover against the Crimson Tide.
What everyone overlooked in that game, was the fact that it didn't mean near as much to the Bulldogs as it did Alabama. Win or lose Georgia was in the playoffs. Alabama had to win.
I think it was a good loss for the Bulldogs, as it will have them refocused and ready to go in the playoffs. I also love the matchup here, especially for the Georgia defense. Michigan wants to attack you on the ground and that's just not how you attack this Bulldogs defense.
They gave up 82 ypg and 2.6 ypc in a really good SEC. Wolverines don't have a Bryce Young at quarterback or near the talent at wide receiver that Alabama had. Give me the Bulldogs -7.5!
|12-31-21||Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama||6-27||Loss||-100||6 h 53 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Alabama/Cincinnati ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati +13.5)
Everyone is going to be on Alabama after how impressive they looked in their win over Georgia. I got to take the points with Cincinnati. I just don't think people take into account the level of motivation for Alabama and Georgia in the SEC title game.
The Crimson Tide had to win to get in, where the Bulldogs work had already been done. They knew win or lose they were in the 4-team playoff and with no home field advantage that's really all that mattered. You could just see it in the play. Georgia just wasn't themselves on either side of the ball.
Cincinnati's defense may not be elite, but it's really good and when it's mattered the most this year they have showed up in a big way. They also got a brilliant defensive mind in Luke Fickell as their head coach. I think they can make it somewhat difficult for Bryce Young, who is down a big weapon in wideout John Metchie.
The other thing that I think gives the Bearcats a chance is they got a quarterback who can make plays when they need it. Desmond Ridder threw for over 3,000 yards with a 30-8 TD-INT ratio. Cincinnati also has a back in Jerome Ford, who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 19 TDs.
You also got to love that Cincinnati is the team with nothing to lose in this thing. No one is giving them a shot. This team has overcome so much to get to the 4-team playoff. I think it makes them a dog with a serious bite. Give me the Bearcats +13.5!
|12-30-21||Purdue v. Tennessee -6||Top||48-45||Loss||-105||23 h 32 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Music City Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Tennessee -6)
I will happily lay the 6-points with the Volunteers as they take on Purdue in the Music City Bowl on Thursday. I was leaning towards taking the Vols when the bowl matchups were announced and it really caught my attention when it was learned that Boilermakers star wideout David Bell and star defensive end George Karlaftis were both going to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Those are two massive losses. Easily the best player on each side of the ball. Bell had 93 catches for 1,286 yards and his loss will really magnify the Boilermakers lack of a running game. Losing a guy like Karlaftis impacts the entire defense, as you just don't have that relentless pressure on the opposing QB.
I also think there's a lot to like about this Tennessee team. Not many were even picking the Vols to be good enough to make a bowl game this year and yet first year head coach Josh Heupel got them to 7-5. Three of those losses were to Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss, the other two were to Pitt and on the road against Florida before their season derailed.
I think there will be a lot of motivation for Heupel and this team to cap off this first season with a bowl win and really get things going in the right direction for next year. Give me the Vols -6!
|12-29-21||Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech||54-10||Win||100||4 h 18 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Pinstripe Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -3.5)
We definitely missed the better number with the Terps, but I'm done betting games early until we stop seeing teams decimated by COVID. I still think there's more than enough value here with Maryland at -3.5.
Virginia Tech is an absolute mess going into this game. Not only are they operating under an interim head coach after firing Justin Fuente, but they got multiple key players not playing.
The Hokies will be down to 3rd string quarterback Connor Blumrick after starter Braxton Burmeister and backup Knox Kadum both left for the transfer portal. Blumrick attempted just 16 passes during the season and completed just 43.8% with an anemic 2.6 average. He won't have top wide out Tre Turner or talented guard Lecitus Smith, who both opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They also had 3 more of their top defenders opt out to prepare for the NFL.
On the flip side, I think Maryland is really excited to be in a bowl game. It's the first they have made under head coach Mike Locksley and this program hasn't won a bowl game since beating ECU back in the 2010 Military Bowl. Give me the Terps -3.5!
|12-28-21||West Virginia v. Minnesota -4||6-18||Win||100||152 h 45 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Guaranteed Rate Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota -4)
I'm going to take Minnesota -4 against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday. I think this Gophers team went into bowl prep riding a huge wave of momentum, as they closed out the season with a 23-13 win over No. 14 Wisconsin. A victory that kept the Badgers out of the Big Ten title game.
The one big change for the Gophers following that game was the decision of P.J. Fleck to fire offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr.. Normally I would see this as a negative, but it's not like this Minnesota offense was doing anything on that side of the ball. A change could really help them.
It's worth noting that the new offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who was the offensive analyst for West Virginia this season. Ciarrocca also has some ties to this program, as he was the OC/QB coach here from 2017 to 2019.
While wide receivers coach Matt Simon will serve as the OC in the bowl, you have to wonder if Ciarrocca will be willing to give Fleck and his staff the book on the Mountaineers offense and how to best defend what they do.
Either way West Virginia will have to play in the bowl game without one of their top offensive weapons, as running back Leddie Brown, who rushed for 1,065 yards and 13 scores, has opted out. No other player on the team had more than 300 rushing yards and the next best running back was sophomore Tony Mathis with a mere 256 yards.
Not to mention the Gophers D was balling to close out the season. In Minnesota last 7 games they allowed just 17.3 ppg, while giving up only 151.7 passing yards/game and 116.7 rushing yards/game.
Not saying it will be a blowout, but I feel confident the Gophers can win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -4!
|12-27-21||Dolphins -3 v. Saints||Top||20-3||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3)
I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those.
You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3!
|12-27-21||Western Michigan -6.5 v. Nevada||52-24||Win||100||1 h 53 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Quick Lane Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (W Michigan -6.5)
Have to roll the dice with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl. I just don't know how you can expect much out of this Wolf Pack team given what they will have to work with.
Star quarterback Carson Strong is sitting out, as is stud tight end Cole Turner. It also doesn't seem like they will have wide out Romeo Doubs and wide outs Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart both went into the transfer portal. So did starting right guard Gray Davis, starting left tackle Jacob Gardner, 2nd-Team linebacker Daiyan Henley and corner A.J. King.
That's just the players. Head coach Jay Norvell left for the Colorado State job. He took with him the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, wide receivers coach, tight ends coach and special teams coach. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for the same job at Washington State. Give me Western Michigan -6.5!
|12-26-21||Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks||25-24||Win||100||77 h 32 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +6.5)
I really like the value here with the Bears as a 6.5-point road dog against the Seahawks. Seattle has no business laying this kind of number in this spot. The Seahawks just had their playoff hopes put to rest in last week's 10-20 loss at the Rams. Even if they win out, the best they can do is 8-9.
I could definitely see this team throwing in the towel given all they have gone through this year. It also feels like it's the end of an era in some way for Seattle. Hard to believe that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be back.
Some might see Chicago starting Nick Foles as a bad thing, but I'm not so sure Foles shouldn't have been the guy from the start. Andy Dalton gives you next to nothing and Fields isn't quite ready. More than anything, the quarterback play can't be much worse. Give me the Bears +6.5!
|12-26-21||Rams v. Vikings +3||30-23||Loss||-112||94 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vikings +3)
I'll take the 3-points with the Vikings at home, as they get ready to host the Rams on Sunday. I just think Los Angeles is bit overvalued coming into this game, as I think this line should be closer to a pick'em.
I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but this Vikings team deserves to better than 7-7. Every single one of their losses have come by 8 points or less with 5 of them coming by 4 or fewer. A few bounces go the other way and they could easily be sitting here with the same record as these Rams and in that scenario they certainly wouldn't be a dog at home.
I also don't love the spot for LA. While the Vikings are on a short week of rest after playing Monday, the Rams are only going to have 4 days to prepare for this game and it's really only 3 when you figure in the travel. On top of that, it's an early window game, which is always tough on west coast teams that have to travel east across multiple time zones.
I know the Rams are still trying to get that No. 1 seed, but it's not like they can feel great about catching Green Bay. While they are just 1-game back of the Packers in the standings, their head-to-head loss to the Packers means they have to make up 2 games with 3 to play.
Minnesota is clearly the more desperate team in this game, as they are currently tied with the Eagles and Saints for the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the NFC.
Rams are just 3-11 ATS since McVay took over after 3 or more consecutive wins and just 2-9 ATS when coming off 2 or more straight wins the last two seasons. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-26-21||Ravens +3 v. Bengals||Top||21-41||Loss||-108||73 h 29 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3)
This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7.
Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs.
It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points!
|12-25-21||Colts v. Cardinals -1||Top||22-16||Loss||-105||57 h 59 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1)
I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games.
I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week.
As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding.
I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1!
|12-25-21||Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5||20-51||Win||100||51 h 18 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Camellia Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER (Georgia St -5.5)
This is a game I originally wasn't going to play, but after talking it over with Jack Jones on the SportsCapping Podcast (he gave it out as a free play), I really think it's a strong play. You have the Sun Belt vs the MAC. The Sun Belt has been a great conference to back in these bowl games and the MAC has been one of the best to fade.
Georgia State comes in at 7-5, but they were playing more like a 8 or 9 win team coming into this game. They closed out the season winning 6 of their final 7 games. They had a big upset win over Coastal Carolina during this run as a double-digit dog and only lost by 4 on the road against the Sun Belt's best team in Lafayette.
As for Ball State, this is a team that was suppose to be better than they were, but it just never came together for the Cardinals in 2021. I don't think they are going to magically figured it out in this bowl game and wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a bit of a blowout. Give me Georgia State -5.5!
|12-23-21||49ers v. Titans +3.5||17-20||Win||100||21 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Titans +3.5)
I got to take the Titans at +3.5 at home against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. I know Tennessee has fallen off quite a bit since losing Henry, but they have actually ran it pretty well without their big horse. Titans had over 200 yards on the ground in their last game against the Steelers and 270 a couple of games back against the Pats.
I also think it's HUGE for that Titans offense to get back their go-to-guy on the outside in wide out A.J. Brown. Tennessee is also not an easy place to play and these home teams have quite a big edge in these Thursday Night games. Give me the Titans +3.5!
|12-23-21||Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5||27-14||Loss||-105||16 h 21 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Frisco Classic Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (North Texas +2.5)
I'm going to take the 2.5 with the Mean Green as they take on Miami (OH) in the Frisco Classic Bowl in Frico, Texas. We have seen this line move in favor of North Texas, but I don't think it's moved enough, as I think the Mean Green should be favored.
The MAC is awful and have just not performed well in bowl games when they get matched up with equal or better talent from other FBS conferences. I just don't know what the books see in this RedHawks team.
On the flip side, North Texas is a team that closed out the regular-season on fire. The Mean Green were sitting at 1-6 going into a late Oct. game against Rice. They won that game 30-24 in OT and never looked back, closing out the year on a 5-game winning streak, which they concluded with a 45-23 blowout win over then No. 22 ranked UTSA.
This North Texas team has quite the ground game. They averaged 246 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry for the season, but it only got better. They put up over 320 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, including 340 against the Roadrunners in the finale.
I like good running teams in bowl games, as it's a lot easier for them offensively to get back into a rhythm after not playing for an extended stretch. Miami (OH) wasn't great against the run and in their last game they gave up 303 rushing yards to Kent State. Give me the Mean Green +2.5!
|12-21-21||San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA||38-24||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Frisco Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St -2.5)
I'm going to lay the 2.5 with the Aztecs against the Roadrunners in the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday. This is a big game for San Diego State, as they try to win 12 games for the first time in school history. A mark they wanted to hit in the Mountain West title game, but weren't able to because a rash of Covid spread through the team. While there weren't a ton of key guys out, the Aztecs weren't able to get any good reps in practice in that week.
On the flip side of this, UTSA seems to be satisfied with what they have accomplished, finishing the season 12-1, capped by a 49-41 win over WKU in the C-USA title game. Multiple guys are sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL, including one of the nation's best backs in Sincere McCormick.
I also like the matchup here. UTSA is still going to want to run the football without McCormick and this is not the defense to run against. San Diego State only gave up 78 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. They were also great at defending mobile quarterbacks and getting out of the pocket and scrambling is a huge part of Roadrunners' quarterback Frank Harris' game.
It's going to take a monster game from Harris for UTSA to put points on the board. I'll take my chances he doesn't have a monster a game and lay the short number here. Give me the Aztecs -2.5!
|12-20-21||Raiders +3 v. Browns||Top||16-14||Win||100||7 h 37 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3)
I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well.
Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3!
|12-19-21||Panthers +11 v. Bills||14-31||Loss||-110||96 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Panthers +11)
As difficult as it is to back the Panthers given how much I've been burned by Carolina this season and the ridiculous rate at which these big favorites have been covering the last two weeks, there's no way I'm not playing the Panthers at this price.
It's not so much that I'm really big on Carolina. More than anything, this is a play against the Bills. I want to start out by saying, I was on this Buffalo downfall from the start. With last week's loss to the Bucs we at worst will push our win total bet on the Bills UNDER 11.
I'd love to see it here, but I think we will get it for next week when they go to Foxborough to face the Patriots. Speaking of that game, it's part of why I like this spot for the Panthers. Buffalo is coming off two massive games with that monster game on deck. Two weeks ago they hosted the Pats on MNF in a wind storm and last week went on the road and lost a heartbreaker to Tom Brady and the Bucs 27-33 in OT.
Also, while I think the experts can see the flaws in this Buffalo team, the betting public still thinks they are great and in their minds this is the perfect bounceback spot for the Bills against a struggling Panthers team. Which is why I think we are seeing the inflated number here. I also think the books really want to push the envelope on these big favorites given how many have covered the last two Sunday's.
I know Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have been a mess the last two games, but it's been more about turnovers than anything, as they have coughed it up 3 times in each of their last two games.
I'm banking that we will see some regression in that area this week against a Bills defense that has regressed a ton of late and forced just 2 turnovers total in their last 4 games combined.
I also love the matchup for the Panthers defense. Carolina's ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a mere 177.7 ypg. It's really a nightmare matchup for this Bills offense that really has no desire to run the football. Give me the Panthers +11!
|12-19-21||Texans v. Jaguars -3.5||30-16||Loss||-113||75 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NFL) -Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -3.5)
As soon I heard that Urban Meyer was being fired from the Jaguars, I couldn't place my bet fast enough on them to cover at home against the Texans on Sunday. I think it's pretty safe to say that Meyer had lost that lockerroom and I'm not really sure he ever had it. There's no question that he rubbed several of the players and coaches the wrong way.
It's going to be like a breath of fresh air for this team to go to work and not have to see his face. I think it's going to translate into by far the best showing the Jags will have had this season and lucky for them they get to take out their frustration on a horrible team like the Texans. Houston is a team the Jags could have beat and covered against despite Meyers.
Keep in mind not only have the Jags had to deal with all of Myers crap, they have played a brutal schedule. Give me Jacksonville -3.5!
|12-19-21||Titans v. Steelers -1||Top||13-19||Win||100||16 h 50 m||Show|
50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1)
I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report.
Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1!
|12-18-21||Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5||13-24||Win||100||68 h 20 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - LA Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah State +7.5)
Give me the Aggies at +7.5! I'm shocked that we are getting this good a price on Utah State in this game. No one was picking Utah State to even sniff the Mountain West title game, let alone win it. There was optimism that first year head coach Blake Anderson, who did a remarkable job at Arkansas State before landing here, would get this program headed in the right direction.
But those expectations were a bit limited given they did go just 1-5 in the shortened 2020 season. Anderson has clearly worked his magic quicker than anyone could have imagined, but a big reason for that is he was able to convince Logan Bonner to transfer alongside him from Ark St. Bonner had thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio with the Red Wolves. He threw for 3,560 yards with 36-11 TD-INT ratio this year.
I think there's all kinds of motivation for the Aggies to end their season with a win over a Power 5 opponent. I also think they don't for a second think they should be catching this many points.
Oregon State had a great year and were in the Pac-12 race right up to the end. I just think you got to take that with a grain of salt given how down that conference was this year. This is also a Pac-12 conference that has not showed well in bowl games of late.
It certainly doesn't feel like it's as big a deal for Oregon State to play in this game. I mean they had to be hoping for a little more than getting a non-Power 5 opponent on the first Saturday of bowl season.
I also think the Beavers not having stud linebacker Avery Roberts is a bigger deal than is getting made. Roberts not only led the Beavers with 123 tackles (next best 78), he led the entire Pac-12 conference. Give me Utah State +7.5!
|12-18-21||UTEP +12.5 v. Fresno State||Top||24-31||Win||100||63 h 22 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - New Mexico Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (UTEP +12.5)
I will take my chances with UTEP as a 12.5-point dog against the Bulldogs. I'm not big on C-USA as a whole, but I got to take a shot here at this price with the Miners. This has been a breakout season for UTEP, who finished 4-4 in C-USA and 7-5 overall.
It's just the 3rd bowl game they will attend since 2005 and the first since 2014. The Miners haven't won a bowl game since they took out Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl. It's also the first ever bowl game for head coach Dana Dimel, who deserves a ton of credit for getting this team to where it is. He took over a 0-12 team and went just 2-22 his first two years on the job.
It's only about a 4-hour drive from El Paso to Albuquerque, so I would think there's plenty of fans who will make the trip.
I don't think there's near the excitement surrounding this game for the Bulldogs. Fresno State had a really good season. They won 9 games and showed out in non-conference losing by just 7 on the road to then No. 11 Oregon and beating then No. 13 UCLA on the road. If not for a slip up in Hawaii (lost 27-27) they would have won the West and played in the MWC title game.
You got to think they not only wanted to play in a better bowl than this, but also play a bigger program. What do they get out of beating UTEP? Not enough to keep head coach Kalen DeBoer around, as he left to be the new head coach at Washington. Also gone is offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, which I think is the bigger story here. Kirby Moore, who is the wide receivers coach, will call plays for the first time on Saturday.
There's also no guarantee that starting quarterback Jake Haener is going to play. He said he was going to transfer to Washington to stick with DeBoer, then changed his mind. It's interesting that instead of just saying the job is Heaner's given he got the team to this game, they aren't going to announce a starter until kickoff. Two freshman are on the depth chart behind Haener.
Even if he plays, I think that Fresno State offense will be out of sync with a new play-caller and this UTEP defense is sneaky good. The Miners only gave up 5.1 yards/play, allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and a mere 54% completion rate. Give me UTEP +12.5!
|12-18-21||Appalachian State -3 v. Western Kentucky||38-59||Loss||-110||70 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Appalachian State -3)
I really think the books have made a mistake here not making the Mountaineers a bigger favorite in this matchup. No disrespect to the Hilltoppers, who had one of the more remarkable turnarounds on offense you will see.
Last year WKU was one of the worst offenses in the country averaging just 19.0 ppg and 290 ypg. This year they put up 45.5 ppg and 528.4 ypg. The second best marks of every FBS team. Only Ohio State finished ahead of them.
For those that don't know, this big turnaround happened when they brought in Houston Baptists offensive coordinator, starting quarterback and three wide receivers.
It's a great story and makes their games a lot of fun to watch, but there's a reason this team finished 8-5 with those ridiculous offensive numbers. The defense struggled to contain teams with a pulse offensively. We saw it in their loss to UTSA in the C-USA title game, where they put up 41 points and 568 yards and lost the game 41-48. You also got to take that final score with a grain of salt, as they railed 42-13 to the Roadrunners midway thru the 3rd quarter.
Appalachian State is who they have been for years. They are a well coached team that wants to control the line of scrimmage on both sides. They finished the year a very respectable 10-3 with their only loss outside of conference coming by 2-points to Miami and both losses inside to a very very good Louisiana-Lafayette team. One they played much tougher in the Sun Belt title game than they did in the regular-season, which I also think speaks to a typical App State team that just keeps getting better as the season goes on. Might have something to do with why the Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 in bowl games.
I think the Mountaineers will be able to do as they please offensively and really wear down that Western Kentucky defense and I like their pass rush and secondary to make enough plays to get off the field and really make the Hilltoppers have to press the issue offensively.
One last thing to note, in App State's 6-game bowl win streak, each of the last 3 have come against teams out of C-USA. Give me the Mountaineers -3!
|12-17-21||Toledo -10 v. Middle Tennessee State||24-31||Loss||-112||37 h 53 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Bahamas Bowl VEGAS INSIDER (Toledo -10)
I don't think a lot of people realize how good this Toledo team is playing to close out the year. Everyone took notice when they played Notre Dame tough early in the year, but they lost the next week at home to Colorado State and then lost 3 of 5 to open up MAC play, all but eliminating them from the MAC title race in early November.
A loss is a loss, but all 3 of their defeats in MAC play could have easily been wins. They lost by 2 to Northern Illinois, by 3 in OT to Central Michigan and by 3 to Eastern Michigan.
One of the big things that transpired over the course of the season was the emergence of freshman quarterback Dequan Finn who has taken over the job under center from Carter Stanley. Not only does Finn provide a threat to run the ball (418 yards, 8 TDs), he completed 60% of his attempts with a 16-1 TD-INT ratio.
Middle Tennessee is down to their 4th string QB and it's not by choice. Not a good sign for a team that struggled to run the ball, averaging just 120 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry.
Toledo can build a lead here and keep it, as they provide a potent ground attack that averages 194 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Give me the Rockets -10!
|12-13-21||Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals||30-23||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Rams/Cardinals MNF Vegas INSIDER (Rams +2.5)
I will take my chances with the Rams as a slim 2.5-point road dog against the Cardinals. I'll admit it's not easy going against Arizona at home laying less than a field goal, but it just feels too good to be true. Everyone is going to be on the Cardinals, which has me taking the Rams.
I do like this Rams team and they are do for a real signature type of win. They also will be playing with revenge after getting embarrassed 37-20 at home by Arizona back in Week 4. Give me LA +2.5!
|12-12-21||Bears +13 v. Packers||Top||30-45||Loss||-118||76 h 19 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13)
I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action.
Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game.
Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps.
I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5!
|12-12-21||Ravens v. Browns -2||22-24||Push||0||95 h 34 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Browns -2)
I just really think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland in this spot. Not only do the Browns need this game to stay in the race for the AFC North title, they desperately need a win here just to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC.
Not that motivation was going to be an issue, but this one will mean a little more to Cleveland, as they went into their bye last week off a hard fought 16-10 loss at Baltimore. While the Browns have had two full weeks to get ready for their shot at revenge, Baltimore had to play at Pittsburgh this past Sunday and it didn't go as planned with the Ravens losing 19-20 on a failed 2-pt attempt at the end of regulation.
Not only is the spot bad for Baltimore, but this is a banged up Ravens team. They got 17 guys on IR with 7 of those being starters and 3 of them former Pro Bowl players. They have really been decimated in the secondary, which just lost starter Marlon Humphrey in the loss to Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been a mess and it's shown in the recent struggles of Lamar, who has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 24 times in their last 6 games.
I know this game still comes down to the play of Baker Mayfield and the Browns ability to get the ground game going, which is no sure thing. However, I just think the extra rest, especially for Mayfield will pay off in a big home win. Give me the Browns -2!
|12-12-21||Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +4.5||27-20||Loss||-110||69 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Football Team +4.5)
I have to roll the dice and take Washington as a 4.5-point home dog in Sunday's division showdown with the Cowboys. The Football Team has really came out of nowhere to turn their season around with 4 straight wins. All of it starting when they came out of their bye and beat the Tom Brady and the Bucs 29-19 as a 10-point dog.
All 4 of their wins during this run have came as a dog and I think you got to ride this team in this underdog role as long as you can.
You could argue their turnaround started before the bye, as they could have easily won at Green Bay and at Denver in the two games leading up to the extra week off.
The running game has really sparked the offense and the defense is playing exceptionally well right now. Washington has allowed 21 or fewer points in 5 straight.
As for the Cowboys, they always are inflated when it comes to the spread because the public just can't help themselves. I just don't like what I've seen out of Dallas of late. The defense has to force turnovers to be any good and the offense has not been in sync since Dak got hurt. Give me the Football Team +4.5!
|12-12-21||Jaguars +8.5 v. Titans||0-20||Loss||-109||69 h 43 m||Show|
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Jaguars +8.5)
As difficult as it is to go into a game needing the Jags to play well, I have to take my chances with Jacksonville at 8.5 against the Titans.
I just don't understand what Tennessee has done besides go on their bye week that makes you think this team is going to look any different than it did prior to the bye. It's just not the same team without Derek Henry to really dictate the game. Not only can the Titans not run the ball, defenses no longer have to load the box to try and stop him.
I know the numbers aren't great and it hasn't resulted in a lot of close games, but the Jaguars defense isn't as bad as what people think. They haven't allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 290 yards in 6 straight games and this is a stretch where they have faced some decent teams and QBs.
If we can just get a little something out of that Jags offense, they might just win this game outright. Give me Jacksonville +8.5!
|12-11-21||Navy +7.5 v. Army||Top||17-13||Win||100||65 h 1 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Army/Navy MAX UNIT Top Play (Navy +7.5)
I not only think Navy is going to cover the 7.5, I think they have a really good shot here of winning this game outright. This is not as lopsided a matchup as the records for these two teams would suggest with Army coming in at 8-3 and Navy at 3-8.
Navy has by far played the tougher schedule. They caught zero breaks in the AAC this year, having to play Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF, Tulsa and ECU. They also played Notre Dame in non-conference. Some of the losses early were ugly, but 3 of their last 5 defeats came by 7 or less.
Army played two Power 5 teams in Wisconsin and Wake Forest. Their other games against FBS teams were against the likes of Georgia St, WKU, UConn, Miami (OH), Ball St, Air Force, UMass and Liberty.
You also got to love the fact that Navy is playing for revenge in this matchup. Not to mention the value of getting 7.5 points in a game where the total is a mere 34 points. Give me the Midshipmen +7.5!
|12-09-21||Steelers v. Vikings -3||Top||28-36||Win||100||23 h 40 m||Show|
50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3)
I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers.
As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot.
I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3!
|12-06-21||Patriots +3 v. Bills||14-10||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Pats/Bills MNF Vegas INSIDER (Patriots +3)
I've been on this Patriots bandwagon for a while now. I bet them to win the AFC East before the season even started. I can't help myself but to take them as a dog against the Bills on Monday Night Football.
New England is a matchup nightmare for this Buffalo team that can't run the ball and just aren't a very physical team. The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league and are one of the best running teams on the other side.
If that wasn't going to be hard enough for the Bills to overcome, Mother Nature is going to make it even harder. The conditions for this game are going to be brutal with winds pushing 30 mph and a chance of rain. That's not ideal for a team that can't run the ball. Give me the Patriots +3!
|12-05-21||Broncos +10 v. Chiefs||9-22||Loss||-110||76 h 22 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Broncos/Chiefs SNF Vegas INSIDER (Broncos +10)
As difficult as it is to bet against Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye, I just can't pass up on the value with Denver at +10. No question Kansas City has played better football during their 4-game win streak, but not all is quite right with this team.
Outside of that game against the Raiders, where Mahomes and the Chiefs looked like the offense of years past, this KC offense has not really done a lot during the win streak. If this offense was truly back to its old form, they would have easily put up 30+ on that Cowboys defense at home.
Now they face a really good Denver defense who not only will play that 2-high look that has been giving this Chiefs offense trouble, but also has some nice talent on that side of the ball.
Also, while the Chiefs defense has been playing much better, Teddy Bridgewater and that Denver offense are going to be just fine in this game. Give me the Broncos +10!
|12-05-21||Washington Football Team +2.5 v. Raiders||Top||17-15||Win||100||72 h 16 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5)
I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight.
While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team.
On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal.
Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards.
That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points.
I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5!
|12-04-21||Iowa v. Michigan -10.5||3-42||Win||100||54 h 11 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Big Ten Championship ATS SHOCKER (Michigan -10.5)
I grew up in Iowa and a Hawkeyes fan, so I follow this team closely. As much as I would love for Iowa to stick it to Harbaugh and ruin Michigan's shot at making the 4-team playoff, I just don't see it happening.
Iowa's only hope of keeping this game remotely close is by forcing turnovers and that's just not something you can bank on. Even with how good the Hawkeyes have been in that department. Michigan is also a team that takes great care of the ball. Wolverines haven't turned it over three times in any game this season and in 10 of their 12 games they had 1 or fewer turnovers.
I also think that there's the perception that Michigan's offensive and defensive lines won't be near as dominant as they were against Ohio State against this Iowa team. Yes. Ferentz coached teams are always solid in the trenches, but the Hawks are not elite on either side of the ball.
I just don't see how Iowa's offense is going to be able to do enough to keep this game close and if they get behind early, this could get ugly. Give me the Wolverines -10.5!
|12-04-21||Georgia -6 v. Alabama||Top||24-41||Loss||-111||50 h 57 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Alabama/Georgia MAX UNIT Top Play (Georgia -6)
I can't help myself but to lay less than a touchdown with Georgia in the SEC title game. I got nothing but respect for Alabama and what they have been able to accomplish under Saban, but much like the LSU team that had Joe Burrow, this Georgia team is just a step above the rest of college football.
I just think if it didn't say Alabama on the jersey, this line would be pushing double-digits and I'm not sure that would be enough. It's just a nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide, who are not anything close to what we have seen in the past on the defensive side of the ball and they got no ability to run the ball.
Bryce Young is great, but he's going to have to throw it 50+ times for Alabama to even have a shot and I got big concerns with the Crimson Tide's pass protection after how bad the struggled against the blitz against Auburn.
No one seems to be talking enough about how Alabama was being shutout through 3 quarters in a game they had to win if they wanted any shot at getting back to the college football playoff. I just think the Georgia defense is going to be too much to overcome. Give me the Bulldogs -6!
|12-04-21||Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5||21-16||Loss||-108||71 h 3 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Big 12 Championship VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma St -5.5)
I'm going to lay the 5.5 with Oklahoma State as they face off against Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. The game will be played on the Dallas Cowboys home field at AT&T Stadium.
I'm a little bit surprised we aren't seeing a heavier influx of money coming in on the Cowboys, but that's a good thing in my opinion. I would be a lot more hesitant to back Oklahoma State if this was a big public play.
It feels like to me that there's just a lack of trust and belief in this Cowboys team and a lot of people aren't wanting to back them off that huge win over rival Oklahoma last week. I just don't think this is the spot to fade a team in that scenario. There's just no way Oklahoma State is looking past this opportunity. Not with what's happened to them in the past.
To me that's really what this handicap comes down to. Whether or not we get the best the Cowboys have to offer, because their best is more than enough to beat this Baylor team by at least a touchdown.
These two teams played in the regular season and while it looks like it was a competitive game with Oklahoma State only winning 24-14 at home, it wasn't nearly that close. The Cowboys had a 401 to 280 edge in total yards, 24-10 advantage in first downs and had the ball nearly 10 minutes more in time of possession. The only reason it was close is because OK State was -3 in the turnover department.
Not that I wouldn't be fine with the same score on Saturday, I do think there's a strong likelihood that the Cowboys offense plays better than they did in the first meeting. I can't say the same for the Baylor offense. Not with how good this Oklahoma State defense is against the run and how depended the Bears offense is on being able to run the ball. Give me Oklahoma State -5!
|11-29-21||Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team||Top||15-17||Loss||-110||11 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1)
I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up.
I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game.
I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1!
|11-28-21||Browns +3.5 v. Ravens||Top||10-16||Loss||-101||74 h 8 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5)
I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season.
I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost.
As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5!
|11-28-21||Bucs -3 v. Colts||38-31||Win||100||95 h 14 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3)
I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs.
We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night.
So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week.
I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting.
Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game.
On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football.
Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt.
The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary.
Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy.
I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3!
|11-28-21||Jets v. Texans -2.5||21-14||Loss||-108||67 h 43 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5)
I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad.
The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win.
The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5!
|11-27-21||Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4||33-37||Push||0||70 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Oklahoma/Oklahoma St Bedlam MASSACRE (Oklahoma St -4)
I usually try to avoid taking a spread that I think is so obvious that something has to be wrong. I just can't help myself with Oklahoma State only being asked to lay 4 at home to a Oklahoma team that is on it's heels.
The big reason for me not letting the line scare me away, is the fact that this is an Oklahoma State team that just hasn't gotten the respect or the oodsmakers this year. For them to be 10-1 and playing as well as they have, you think this team is happy about being ranked No. 7 in the country. I'm sure in their mind they feel like they should be No. 4 and at least in the Top 5.
Not very often you find a team playing this well that continues to have to play with a chip on their shoulder. As for the books, Oklahoma State has covered 9 in a row and most of them haven't ended even close to the number.
Either the books aren't buying what they are seeing or the money just hasn't come in on Oklahoma State enough for them to inflate the lines. Regardless, it has them undervalued here.
Say what you want about the offense. It's nothing that wows you. They don't really do anything great. What they do is take care of the ball (3 turnovers in their last 6 games). They also are a solid running team.
It's been more than enough with the way they are playing defensively. If a team only gives up 23 points in a game, most see that as a really good game. Oklahoma State has allowed 23 points in their last 4 games combined.
Oklahoma's offense has looked lost their last two games and it feels like they don't know who should be playing quarterback. I'm willing to bet it doesn't just magically click for them against this defense.
If the defense can force some turnovers and the offense can avoid settling for field goals early, I think this could get out of hand. Give me Oklahoma State -4!
|11-27-21||West Virginia -15 v. Kansas||34-28||Loss||-110||69 h 5 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (W Virginia -15)
I think we are getting a gift here with West Virginia only being asked to lay 15 against Kansas. To me. This is a sell high spot on the Jayhawks. In Kansas' last two games they have went on the road and beat Texas 57-56 as a 31-point dog and barely lose 28-31 at TCU this past week as 21-point favorites.
If you just think about the fact that W Virginia went on the road and beat TCU 29-17, this line should be well into the 20's.
It's one thing if a team has a couple of games like this after something has drastically changed (coaching change, injured player coming back, new starting QB, etc.). I just don't think there's anything different from this Kansas team and the one we saw go 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their previous 9 games.
They beat Texas in the worst possible spot for the Longhorns, who were delivered the knockout blow on their season with a loss to ISU the week before. They also got TCU in a big letdown spot, as the Horned Frogs were coming off that emotional upset win against rival Baylor in the first game after their coach had been fired.
I know West Virginia is just 5-6, but they could easily be sitting here at 7-4. They had multiple close losses early in the year that just didn't go their way in the 4th quarter. Big thing here is they need this win to get bowl eligible.
What motivation does Kansas have? It's senior day? I guess. I just think senior day can get the crowd more involved, which the players feed off of. It's not going to be any more electric than a normal home game for the Jayhawks. Give me West Virginia -15!
|11-27-21||Wisconsin -7 v. Minnesota||13-23||Loss||-105||66 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS CASH COW (Wisconsin -7)
I just can't help myself but to lay the 7 with the Badgers in this game. If this game plays out like I see it, the Badgers will cover this game easy.
This Wisconsin team might be the best team that hasn't been in the playoff talk. That's only because the Badgers were all but eliminated from that conversation when they started 1-3. I just think ever since that start this team has been undervalued. They have won 7 straight and are 5-2 ATS.
They aren't just squeaking by the numbers in those covers, the books haven't been close in a lot of their games. They won by 24 as a 12.5-point favorite at Illinois, by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite at Purdue and by 20 as a 3-point home favorite against Iowa.
I just think this is a team on a mission and one that is dying for the chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Minnesota is all that is in their way. I expect the best version of the Badgers on Saturday.
They did fail to cover as 10-point favorites at home against Nebraska last week, but that line was a bit inflated. The Cornhuskers are a much better team than their record would suggest.
I think it's a Nebraska team that is certainly better than this Minnesota team. This is also a matchup nightmare for the Gophers with how good Wisconsin is against the run. Sunstaining drives is going to be a challenge and scoring will not be easy. I'm not saying they won't score a lot, but I don't think Wisconsin needs to put up 30+ for us to cover this easy. Give me the Badgers -7!
|11-27-21||Oregon State +7 v. Oregon||29-38||Loss||-106||65 h 26 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Oregon St +7)
I'll gladly take the 7-points with Oregon State on the road in the Civil War against rival Oregon. I know that with a win the Ducks can secure the Pac-12 North title, but I'm not buying it's a real motivator.
Prior to last week's 38-7 loss at Utah, Oregon was in a position that if they won out, they would have made the 4-team playoff. As great as it is to win a conference title, it's nothing compared to getting to that 4-team playoff and having a shot to win it all. I just don't think Oregon is going to be able to pick themselves up off the mat.
On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that has made some big strides this year and they aren't going to care in the slightest about the situation that the Ducks find themselves in. They are going to be extremely motivated to not just keep it close, but to win the game outright. Something I strongly believe they can and will do on Saturday. Give me the Beavers +7!
|11-27-21||Penn State -1 v. Michigan State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||65 h 24 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Penn State -1)
The last week of the regular-season is all about motivation and it's 100% why you are seeing Penn State as a 1-point road favorite against the Spartans. The situation that we find Michigan State in this week is one of my favorite angles this time of year. I want to fade teams who just had all their hopes and dreams crushed the week before.
It's pretty safe to say that the Spartans fall into that category. Going into last week's game against Ohio State, Michigan State was in the running to not just win the Big Ten East, a win in that game and they would be in line to make the college football playoff.
They go from everything you could ever dream of being on the line to having absolutely nothing but pride to play for in a pretty meaningless game against Penn State. There's the exception to this every now and then, but you can't pick and choose who you think that will be. You just fade the team in this spot. Give me Penn State -1!
|11-26-21||Missouri v. Arkansas -14.5||17-34||Win||100||42 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Arkansas -14.5)
I got no problem laying the 14.5-points with the Razorbacks at home against the Tigers on Friday. I think a lot of people might be hesitant to lay more than two touchdowns with Arkansas in this spot, as they will be concerned of a letdown for the Razorbacks after a hard fought loss to Alabama.
I'm not saying that won't be the case, but I feel pretty confident in Arkansas not letting that loss to the Crimson Tide carry over to this game. Some senior days mean more than others and I think it's really big for this Razorbacks' senior class. These are the guys that really stuck with the program and saw it get back to respectability this year.
I also think there's motivation here for Arkansas to snap a 5-game losing streak to Missouri and finish the season 3-0 in their 3 trophy games.
If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Razorbacks, they should have no problem winning this game by 20+ points. Don't be fooled by Missouri's win over a Florida team that quit on their head coach last week. This is a bad Tigers football team and one that figures to have a horrible time keeping Arkansas out of the end zone.
Missouri is giving up 36.3, 446.9 ypg and 6.5 yards/play in SEC games this year. They are especially bad against the run, giving up 235 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of this Razorbacks' offense, which is averaging 222 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground.
On the flip side of this, Arkansas has a pretty good run defense and with how Missouri's passing game has struggled in the 2nd half of the season, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Razorbacks -14.5!
|11-26-21||UTEP +13.5 v. UAB||25-42||Loss||-104||48 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Black Friday ATS NO-BRAINER (UTEP +13.5)
I not only think UTEP will cover the 13.5 in Friday's game at UAB, I think the Miners are a live dog in this one. This is an absolutely a horrible spot for UAB. The Blazers come off a crushing 31-34 loss on the road to undefeated UTSA. UAB gave up a 1-yard TD pass with 3 seconds on the clock to lose that game. It was a crazy play, as there was a bad snap and the pass was tipped before falling into the arms of Oscar Cardenas.
Had UAB won that game, they would have pulled even with UTSA in the West Division of C-USA and simply would have needed to beat UTEP to play in the conference title game. With the loss they are no longer able to catch the Roadrunners for the division crown.
Even with it being senior day for the Blazers, I think it's asking a lot for them to show up with the right mindset to beat a quality team like UTEP. It would be one thing if this was an up and coming team, but this will mark the first time in 4 years that UAB will not be involved in the C-USA title game.
On the flip side, I know you could argue that UTEP is in the same boat with nothing really to play for, but I don't see it that way. The Miners are in the midst of one of their best seasons in quite some time. They are 7-4 with a 4-3 record in conference play. They have a shot to win 8 games for the first time since 2005 and their first winning record in C-USA play since 2014.
This is a team that had gone just 5-39 over their previous 4 seasons. They had a win total for the season of just 3 and conference only win total of 1.
Needless to say I think UTEP is going to have no problem getting up for this game. They don't care about the situation for UAB. All they see is a chance to end the regular-season with a huge road win against a team that has really been the class of this conference the last few years. Give me the Miners +13.5!
|11-26-21||Iowa v. Nebraska -1||Top||28-21||Loss||-109||40 h 58 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -1)
There's lines that stink and then there's this one. The betting public is going to think the bookmakers have lost their mind, making a 3-8 Nebraska team a favorite against an Iowa team that is 9-2 and ranked No. 16 in the country. Especially with the news that the Cornhuskers will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez.
Anytime a line looks to be off this much, I instantly look to fade the obvious side, but I was going to be on Nebraska regardless in this one.
No question this has not been the season that the Cornhuskers expected, but this has a team that has taken some really gut wrenching blows and continued to come out and play their hearts out.
Given how much these two teams hate each other and the fact that Iowa has won 6 straight (last 3 decided by 6 or less), I see Nebraska treating this like it's their bowl game.
I also love the matchup even without Martinez. This Iowa offense is one of the worst in the FBS and while it hasn't translated into a lot of wins, this Nebraska defense has played extremely well this year. I think they can do enough offensively with Logan Smothers, who is a talented freshman, to get the win at home. Give me Nebraska -1!
|11-25-21||Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2||Top||31-21||Loss||-110||25 h 34 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Miss St Egg Bowl MASSACRE (Mississippi St -2)
Most are going to look at this line an think the wrong team is favored and will just blindly back Ole Miss. They will completely overlook that all the action is coming in on the Rebels and yet this line is moving in favor of Mississippi State.
It only makes me like the Bulldogs more, as I not only think they cover the short number, but put it on their in-state rivals in the Egg Bowl.
While it's hard to say that Ole Miss isn't playing well when they have gone 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last 7 games, but I don't think it's the same Rebels team that we saw to start the year, especially not on the offensive side of the ball.
In their last 4 games, Ole Miss is only averaging 26.8 ppg. That's after they put up 31 or more in 6 of their first 7 games, eclipsing 40 points in 4 of those games.
Now that offense has to face a pretty good Bulldogs defense that is only giving up 25.0 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 5.4 yards/play. Everyone thinks Ole Miss is this pass happy offense, but they really want to run the ball and that's going to be a challenge against a Miss St defense that only gives up 3.3 yards/carry.
I know the Rebels defense has been playing well of late, but they haven't exactly faced the toughest offenses during this stretch. I think they could revert back to their old ways here and really struggle to get off the field. Give me Mississippi State -2!
|11-23-21||Buffalo v. Ball State -6.5||3-20||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACtion NO-BRAINER (Ball St -6.5)
I'll take my chances with the Cardinals winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Bulls. Not only do I think Ball State is the better team, but they should be the much more motivated team.
The Cardinals come in at 5-6 and need to win this game to become bowl eligible. It's also going to be senior night for Ball State.
Buffalo's hopes of making a bowl game came to an end in last week's crushing 27-33 OT loss at home at Northern Illinois. Bulls look like they were on their way to potentially pulling off the upset, but quarterback Matt Myers fumbled the ball away on third and goal from the 1-yard line in the Bulls first possession of OT and the defense gave up a 25-yard run on the Huskies first crack at OT to put it away.
I just think it's going to be tough for Buffalo to get themselves up for this one after such an emotional setback last week. Let's also not overlook that while Ball State is just 3-4 in the MAC, their 4 losses have come against 4 of the better teams in the MAC in Toledo, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Give me the Cardinals -6.5!
|11-22-21||Giants +11.5 v. Bucs||10-30||Loss||-111||11 h 56 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Giants/Bucs MNF Vegas INSIDER (Giants +11.5)
I'll take my chances with the Giants catching double-digits on the road against Tampa Bay. It just feels like the books are giving Tom Brady and the Bucs the same treatment this year that they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs last year after they won the Super Bowl. They know the public is going to back them no matter what and are inflating the lines so much that they you got to take the other side.
It would be one thing to lay this big number with Tampa Bay if they were at full strength, but they are still without one of their top weapons offensively in Antonio Brown and even if Gronk comes back, he's been out so long that he's unlikely to have a big role if he does play. I also think the loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea isn't getting near the attention it should. He's the reason that the Bucs have been so good against the run and I think his absence has a negative ripple effect on the rest of the defense.
The Giants also got a lot of injuries they are dealing with, but they are going to be the much more rested team coming off of their bye. I also think this New York defense is very underrated. They have given up 20 or fewer in each of their last 3 games and have been forcing a ton of turnovers (10 takeaways in their last 5 games). Give me the Giants +11.5!
|11-21-21||Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5||Top||9-19||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5)
I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders.
I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show.
The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram.
In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season.
I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5!
|11-21-21||Bengals v. Raiders +1||32-13||Loss||-102||29 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Raiders +1)
I think we are getting a great price on the Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Not a big surprise, as the public likes this Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow and they will like that the Bengals are coming off a bye. They also want nothing to do with Las Vegas right now, especially after watching them get beat pretty bad last week at home against the Chiefs.
I know the final score looks bad in that game against KC, but that's a different game if DeSean Jackson doesn't fumble on that long pass. He scores there and it's a 3-point game. Instead it was like the life was sucked out of this team. I also think people are sleeping on the improvements that the Chiefs have made defensively over the last month with some of the guys they have added and got back from injury.
I think this Raiders defense and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback is something that is getting overlooked, as they should have a field day against a horrible Bengals' offensive line. I also think this Cincinnati defense is one that LV can have some success against. Give me the Raiders +1!
|11-21-21||Dolphins -3 v. Jets||24-17||Win||100||95 h 10 m||Show|
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Dolphins -3)
I'll be the first to admit that there wasn't a scenario or opponent that would have had me laying points with the Dolphins on the road, but there's just no way I'm passing up Miami as a mere 3-point road favorite against this Jets team.
Not only do I think Miami has improved quite a bit over the last month of the season, I feel that the Jets are playing with fire with the decision of the coaching staff to start a washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback over the likes of Mike White.
Now I know White played poorly last week against the Bills, but that was somewhat to be expected given he was up against arguably the league's best secondary. The thing is, they aren't benching him because of that or because he's injured. They are 100% starting Flacco to protect their 1st round investment of Zach Wilson. They want to make sure that when Wilson is healthy and ready to play, they can go back to him as the starter without any controversy.
While it might prove to be the wise decision long-term, I don't think the decision can sit well with the players in the locker room. They are basically saying they would rather lose than play the best players that give them a chance to win.
I really think as bad as the Jets have looked of late, this could very well go down as their worst performance of the year. Not only are they limiting themselves offensively, but they have without a doubt in my mind the worst defense in the league.
I think Miami showed us in last week's big upset win over the Ravens that they have not quit on this season. I know it's a longshot, but even at 3-7 this team has to feel like they can get back in the playoff race in the AFC. With home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets after this road game at New York, they got a realistic shot to be sitting at 7-7 with 3 to play. Give me the Dolphins -3!
|11-21-21||Ravens v. Bears +6.5||16-13||Win||100||26 h 58 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SHOCKER (Bears +6.5)
I really like the value we are getting with the Bears catching 6.5-points at home against the Ravens. I really don't think the Ravens should be more than a field goal favorite in this game, but it's been inflated because of all the public love for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, as well as the fact that Chicago has lost 4 straight.
I just don't think this Ravens team is as good as what their record shows or what people think. The defense is no where close to what it's been in the past, they don't have the talent at running back that they have had in the past. The offense is also not producing anywhere close to expectations on the road, as they are scoring just 19.8 ppg away from home on the season.
As for the Bears, I think this is a team that is on the rise. It took some time, but Justin Fields finally looks comfortable and we really saw him take a big step forward in the second half of that game against the Steelers in Week 9.
Ravens have failed to cover each of their last 6 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing on average in this spot by 5.2 ppg. Give me the Bears +6.5!
|11-20-21||Oregon v. Utah -3||7-38||Win||100||78 h 13 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Utah -3)
This line is going to look off to a lot of people, as you have the No. 3 ranked Ducks as a 3-point dog against the No. 23 ranked Utes. Most just assume that because Oregon is ranked so much higher in the standings, they should be the ones laying points in this game.
It just goes to show you why you can't invest too much into the rankings. The fact that the books know the money is going to come in on Oregon and still went ahead and made the Utes the favorites, tells you how they think this game is going to play out. To me, they are straight up telling you they think the Utes are going to win this game.
I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been waiting to play Utah in this spot for several weeks now. Ever since Charlie Brewer decided to leave the team and open the door for Cameron Rising to be the starter, the Utes have looked like a completely different team. Utah has gone 6-1 since Rising took over and he's been outstanding.
He's completing 63.5% of his attempts, averaging just under 225 passing yards/game and has a 14-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also added another element to their offense with his mobility, as he's carried it 45 times for 321 yards and 4 scores. That's an average of 7.1 yards/carry. He's also been sacked 3 times in 233 pass attempts, where Brewer was sacked 6 times in just 79 attempts.
Not only can Utah throw the ball, they are averaging 214 ypg and 5.9 yards/carry on the ground. They come in having scored 34 or more points in 6 straight games. I feel really good about this offense being able to move the ball on this Oregon defense.
The only real impressive win for Oregon this year came back in September when they stuned Ohio State on the road. A great win, but the Buckeyes aren't nearly as good defensively as they have been in years past.
I really think it's going to be a challenge for this Ducks offense against this stingy front 7 of Utah. The Utes have had some trouble against the pass, but are really good against the run. They give up just 139 ypg and 3.9 yards/carry. It will be strength vs strength, as Oregon's offense is really built to run the ball. The Ducks are averaging 41 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts.
I really think the Utes defense is going to feed off the energy of the home crowd, as Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play and you can bank on it being electric with this being the prime time night game on ABC set to kickoff at 7:30 EST. Give me the Utes -3!
|11-20-21||Virginia Tech +8 v. Miami-FL||Top||26-38||Loss||-110||52 h 26 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - ACC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Va Tech +8)
I really like the Hokies as a 8-point road dog against the Hurricanes. I'm always going to look to back a team in the first game after they fired their head coach. We have won in this spot multiple times already with the likes of USC and a couple weeks ago with TCU in that shocking win over Baylor. I really think we are going to see a spirited effort here from Virginia Tech after they just let Justin Fuente go.
On the flip side of this, I hate this spot for Miami. The Hurricanes come into this game off a crushing 28-31 loss at rival Florida State. After falling behind 17-0, Miami rallied and had a 28-20 lead with less 5 minutes to play and were up 28-23 before giving up a TD in the final seconds to lose 28-31.
Now the loss does leave Miami at 5-5 and still 1 win shy of bowl eligibility, but getting to 6-6 is just not as big a deal for a program like the Hurricanes. I do think it means a little more to Va Tech, who is also 5-5. I know other names are being thrown around, but you got to believe interim head coach J.P. Price wants to show what he can do and get this team to a bowl. Either way I don't think they need that motivational edge given they are going to already being playing hard after Fuente was fired. Give me the Hokies +8!
|11-20-21||Auburn v. South Carolina +8||Top||17-21||Win||100||52 h 57 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - SEC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (S Carolina +8)
I love the Gamecocks catching over a touchdown at home against Auburn this week. This point of the season is all about motivation and figuring out which teams are going to show up. I don't know if there's an easier target to fade in Week 12 than the Tigers.
Auburn comes into this game off a demoralizing 34-43 loss at home to Mississippi State. A game they led 28-3 before giving up 40 unanswered points to the Bulldogs. That game on it's own would be tough to come back from, but it also knocked he Tigers out of the SEC West race. Had they won that game and then beat South Carolina, they would of went into their finale against rival Alabama with a spot in the SEC title game on the line.
Key here is that while the game against the Crimson Tide might not have the same meaning it could have had they beat the Bulldogs, that's still going to be a game that Auburn gets up for, knowing that if they win they will all but eliminate Alabama from a spot in the 4-team playoff.
If all that wasn't enough, starting quarterback Bo Nix has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury and their top wide out Kobe Hudson has been downgraded to doubtful.
There's not a lot of numbers to dive into with South Carolina and while they will win, but we saw this team not only cover but win outright in a similar spot a couple weeks ago in their 40-17 win at home against Florida. Also, at 5-5, the Gamecocks still need a win to become bowl eligible and I don't think they want to leave that up in the air with Clemson on deck. Give me South Carolina +8!
|11-20-21||Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State||17-41||Loss||-105||49 h 58 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Syracuse +11.5)
I think we are getting some big time value with the Orange as a double-digit road dog against NC State this week. Not only are we buying low on Syracuse after their ugly 41-3 loss at Louisville last week, but we are also selling high on NC State after their near upset win on the road against Wake Forest.
The even bigger factor for me is the horrible spot that the Wolfpack fall in after that crushing loss to the Demon Deacons. That game against WF was MASSIVE. It was basically to decide which of those teams would be in the driver seat to win Atlantic and play in the ACC title game. Had NC State won, both them and Wake would have been tied at 5-1 in the standings with the Wolfpack holding the tie-breaker.
Asking this team to come out and play up to their true potential in a pretty meaningless game against Syracuse is asking a lot, especially to win by double-digits against what figures to be a very motivated Orange team. Not only does Syracuse want to bounce back from that ugly loss to Louisville, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible and have an equally tough game next week against Pitt. Give me Syracuse +11.5!
|11-20-21||Purdue v. Northwestern +11||32-14||Loss||-110||45 h 30 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Northwestern +11)
I was a little hesitant to back Northwestern as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this game and how these two teams matchup, I have to roll the dice with the Wildcats on Saturday.
While the game won't technically be a home game for Northwestern, it is being played in their backyard at Wrigley Field and I think the game being there will give this 3-7 Wildcats team something to get up for.
In fact, I think if there's a team that struggles to show up, it will be the Boilermakers. Purdue has been through quite the Big Ten gauntlet the last 5 weeks. During this stretch they have played @ Iowa, home vs Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, home vs Michigan State and then last week's big showdown at Ohio State.
They are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and while they are just a game back of Wisconsin for the West title, they lost the head-to-head with the Badgers and would need them to lose their last two games (home vs Nebraska & @ Minnesota) to overtake them. They also would need Iowa to lose 1 of their last 2 games.
I just think it's going to be really tough for Purdue to get up for this game. I also think it's a bad matchup for their offense. The weakness of Northwestern's defense is stopping the run and Purdue is one of the worst in the country at running. Wildcats are only giving up 193 passing yards/game. Give me Northwestern +11!
|11-20-21||Florida State v. Boston College -1.5||26-23||Loss||-110||44 h 29 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -1.5)
We cashed with Boston College as a 2-point road dog at Georgia Tech last week, despite a really sloppy start to the game by the Eagles. The Yellow Jackets led that game early 21-7 before a 2nd quarter BC explosion had them up 28-21. They would carry that over to the 2nd half and win the game 40-21. They ended up outgaining Georgia Tech 505 to 343.
One of my biggest things in taking the Eagles in that game was I thought they weren't getting the respect they deserved since starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec returned from injury. He didn't put up great numbers in their 17-3 win over Va Tech in his first start back, but went 13 of 20 for 310 yards and 2 scores vs Georgia Tech.
I think he's going to have another big game here against a Florida State defense that has given up over 300 yards passing in each of their last 2 games. I also think this is a big letdown/lookahead spot for the Seminoles after their crazy come from behind win over rival Miami last week and rival Florida on deck next Saturday.
I know BC is already bowl eligible and FSU needs these last two games to get to 6-6, I just don't think it's as big a deal for a program like Florida State to play in a crappy bowl and it's always a big deal for these middle of the pack teams to play the Seminoles. BC also has to be itching for a shot at FSU after losing two close games to them the last two years. Give me the Eagles -1.5!
|11-20-21||Rutgers +17.5 v. Penn State||Top||0-28||Loss||-110||45 h 51 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Ten Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers +17.5)
I love the value we are getting with Rutgers as a 17.5-point road dog against Penn State on Saturday. No one is going to overreact to the Scarlet Knights blowing out a fading Indiana team, while I think Penn State gained some respect by how well they played against Michigan, as a lot of people thought the Wolverines were going to win that game going away.
I also think there's the struggles that Rutgers has had offensively and their 3 home losses to Ohio State (13-52), Michigan State (13-31) and Wisconsin (3-52) that are going to have some convincing themselves that laying the points is the right play.
If this game was played a month ago and the Nittany Lions were still in it in the Big Ten East, I would probably agree. That's just not the case. At 3-4 in Big Ten play, there's no shot at making the Big Ten title game and they are already bowl eligible at 6-4. You also got the emotional letdown of losing a game to a Top 10 team on their home field after they rallied to take a late lead and another big game on deck against a Michigan State team that is currently in the Top 10 and potentially in the Top 5 if they somehow beat Ohio State.
I just think it's a really tough spot to ask Penn State to win by 20+ points. In fact, if Rutgers can get their offense going or maybe force a couple turnovers, they could very well win this game outright. Scarlet Knights will definitely be motivated to get that 6th win and become bowl eligible. Give me Rutgers +17.5!
|11-19-21||Memphis +9.5 v. Houston||13-31||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Friday Night Lights ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +9.5)
I'm going to roll the dice with Memphis as a 9.5-point home dog against the No. 24 ranked Cougars on Friday night. This line to me just feels like it's a few too many and I love that we are seeing the line go down with the public all over Houston.
It's not been the year the Tigers had hoped for and they are coming off a crushing 29-30 OT loss at home to ECU, but I feel pretty good about the mindset of this Memphis team coming into this big game against Houston. The Tigers have some head scratching losses to some mediocre teams, but they also have outright wins over the likes of Mississippi State and SMU.
I expect them to put their best foot forward against a ranked Cougars team. There's also motivation for Memphis to get a win here to become bowl eligible.
Houston has won 9 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech 21-38, but there's a reason they are 9-1 and ranked just No. 24 in the country. They have played a cupcake schedule, which I believe has really aided in their overall numbers.
The other big thing here for me, is that this game doesn't really mean much. The Cougars end the year next week with a non-conference game against UConn. They have already locked up a spot in the AAC title game with their 7-0 start to AAC play. Give me the Tigers +9.5!
|11-18-21||Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons||25-0||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Patriots/Falcons TNF NO-BRAINER (Patriots -6.5)
I know everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this game, but there's no way I'm betting against Bill Belichick and this New England team in this spot. I was high on this Pats team coming into the year and bet them at 3/1 to win the AFC East when everyone was taking the Bills. They got off to a slow start, but as Belichick teams do, they have gotten better and better as the season rolls on.
New England has won and covered each of their last 4 games, with 3 of those 4 wins coming in blowout fashion. I just don't see how the Falcons can make a game of this. Everyone was buying into Atlanta after their 3-1 SU and ATS run leading into the Cowboys game, but it was more of them just taking advantage of a soft schedule. I still think this is a below average team and they showed that last week in their 43-3 loss at Dallas.
The biggest thing here for me is Belichick's ability to gameplan week to week and take away what a team does best. Well this Atlanta team can't run the ball and you can bet your last dollar that Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Kyle Pitts out of the game. I also think it's huge that Atlanta will likely be without their swiss army knife in Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley (who left the team), no other player for the Falcons has more than 200 yards receiving.
Unless the Pats offense has a complete no show, I just don't see them not winning here by less than a touchdown. Give me New England -6.5!
|11-14-21||Eagles v. Broncos -2.5||30-13||Loss||-104||73 h 53 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Broncos -2.5)
I will gladly lay the 2.5 at home with the Broncos against the Eagles. I just don't understand why this Philly team keeps getting so much respect. They closed as a pick'em at home against the Chargers and were only a 1-point dog at LV. Their only 3 wins on the sason are at Atlanta in Week 1 when the Falcons were a complete mess, at Carolina and at Detroit.
I know they are a good running team, but they have a liability at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. In the Eagles last 5 games they are averaging a mere 157.4 passing yards/game. I just don't see them going on the road in a very tough place to play at Denver and just running the ball effectively enough to win this game.
The Broncos come into this game off a shocking 30-16 win at Dallas as a 10-point dog. I don't always love backing teams off a big win like this, but that's usually because they end up being overvalued and laying more than they should be. I don't think that's the case here. Everyone wants to just say the Cowboys didn't play well and Dak wasn't ready to come back. No one wants to give this team the respect they deserve.
I don't think there's any question that Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB on the field in this game and I think he's going to have a huge game against an awful Eagles secondary. I also wouldn't sleep on this Denver ground game. They got two talented back in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The two had 191 yards on 38 carries against Dallas. I just don't think the Eagles are good enough to even make a game of it. Give me the Broncos -2.5!
|11-14-21||Browns v. Patriots -1||7-45||Win||100||95 h 55 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Patriots -1)
I will gladly take my chances betting against Cleveland in this one. The Browns had the most lopsided win of any team in Week 9, as they went on the road and crushed division rival Cincinnati 41-16.
Some might see a strong correlation with Cleveland having one of their best games after they ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr, but I'm not buying that storyline. I think the Browns caught a massive break early in that Bengals game and it was also a great matchup for Cleveland.
The break came on the first drive of the game, where Cincinnati drove it all the way down to 1st & Goal to go, only to throw a 99-yard pick six. That completely flipped the script of that game and gave a struggling Browns team some much-needed life. Browns also had two long TD plays. They had a 60-yard TD pass on the first play after the Bengals turned it over on downs. They later got a 70-yard TD run from Nick Chubb.
They only outgained the Bengals 361 to 348 and were out first downed 25 to 14. It simply wasn't as dominant as performance as what the score leads you to believe.
I think it's going to be a lot tougher sledding for Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense on the road against a Pats defense that has really come into their own of late. It also doesn't help that Chubb is probably a no go after testing positive for COVID and even if he does play, Bill Belichick will have a game plan in place to not let Cleveland get their running game going and force Mayfield to beat them.
Mayfield has faced a Belichick defense once so far in his brief career. That was at New England back in 2019. It didn't go well. He threw for just 194 yards and was sacked 5 times in a 13-27 loss.
It's not going to be easy for the Pats offense against this Browns defense, but I just trust New England's offense more in this game and all we need is for them to find a way to win the game. Give me the Patriots -1!
|11-14-21||Lions +9 v. Steelers||16-16||Win||100||69 h 27 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +9)
I will gladly take my chances here with the Lions as a 9-point dog against the Steelers. I don't care how bad you think this Detroit team is, Pittsburgh should not be close to a double-digit favorite against any team in the league.
The Steelers offense is extremely limited with the little that Big Ben has left in the tank and their defense isn't all that it's made out to be. We saw that in their last game against the Bears, where they couldn't stop Justin Fields in the 2nd half of that game.
I also think there's value here with Detroit, because the last time we saw them they got annihilated 44-6 at home by the Eagles. Thing with that game was it was a massive letdown for the Lions after playing their hearts out for Jared Goff against his old team in the Rams.
Outside of that game, the one thing the Lions have done under Campbell is play extremely hard. This team is an NFL record long field goal from beating the Ravens, they also lost by just 2 at Minnesota. The game against the Rams was extremely close.
I just feel like we are going to get one of those massive efforts from Detroit out of their bye week. I definitely think they cover the big number and I don't think it's out of the question that they win this game outright. Give me the Lions +9!
|11-14-21||Saints v. Titans -2.5||Top||21-23||Loss||-120||69 h 18 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5)
I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback.
It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year.
Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons.
The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5!
|11-13-21||Washington State +14 v. Oregon||24-38||Push||0||58 h 34 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Washington St +14)
I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars as a two touchdown dog against the Ducks. Say what you want about where you think this Oregon team should be ranked in the standings, the fact of the matter is, they just haven't been that impressive outside of their big win at Ohio State.
It's a great win, but it was two months ago. You got to judge a team based on what they look like now, not what they looked like in September. Since that win, they barely beat Cal 24-17 at home, squeaked by UCLA 34-31 on the road, and had their hands full in last week's 26-16 win at Washington. The only two teams they have beat in Pac-12 play by more than two touchdowns is Arizona and Colorado, who are easily the two worst teams in the league.
Washington State comes in with a record of just 5-4, but they have won 4 of their last 5 and covered 6 straight games against the spread. That includes a 21-6 win at Cal as a 7.5-point dog, 31-24 win over Oregon State as a 4.5-point dog and a 34-21 win at ASU as a 16.5-point dog.
Cougars have also had two weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon is in a bit of a sandwich spot. Ducks just played their biggest rival in the Pac-12 outside of Oregon State in Washington and have a MASSIVE game on deck next week at Utah. Give me Washington State +14!
|11-13-21||TCU +13.5 v. Oklahoma State||17-63||Loss||-110||55 h 43 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (TCU +13.5)
I was not the least bit surprised to see TCU pull off the upset last week at Baylor. We had the Horned Frogs +7 in that game. One of the biggest reasons I backed them in that spot, was not only because I knew they would be up to play Baylor, but teams almost always respond in a big way that first game after their head coach is fired (Gary Patterson was let go).
I don't always come back with that team in the second game under a new coach, but I think it's more than worth a shot at this price. They should be up for this one, as they get a shot here to upset a Top 10 team in the country.
However, the biggest reason I like TCU is they appear to have made a pretty big upgrade at quarterback going to freshman Chandler Morris. He came in relief of starter Max Duggan in the 2nd half of their loss to K-State and got the start against Baylor. He torched a good Bears defense, throwing for 461 yards and 2 scores, while rushing for 70 yards and a score.
I think much like we have seen with Caleb Williams and the life he's given Oklahoma after replacing Spencer Rattler, we are going to see a similar thing with Morris and TCU. If Oklahoma State doesn't give TCU their full attention this week in practice, I really think the Horned Frogs could win this game outright. Give me TCU +13.5!
|11-13-21||Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU||Top||16-13||Win||100||54 h 8 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arkansas -2.5)
We didn't get there with Arkansas -5 in last week's 31-28 win over Mississippi State, but that's not going to deter me in the slightest from jumping right back on the Razorbacks. I absolutely love this spot for Arkansas. I think they are still undervalued right now and in my mind the better team when these two take the field on Saturday.
The reason I believe that this line is so low, is because everyone is scared to bet against LSU at home in a night game and everyone just saw this Tigers team only lose 14-20 as a 28.5-point dog at Alabama last week.
I think the biggest mistake that people will make, is assuming LSU is going to bring that same intensity against Arkansas. I don't see it. There's no game the Tigers wanted to win more than last week's game against the Crimson Tide, which I think meant even more to them with how their season has transpired in the wrong direction. What motivation does LSU have here? You could say they need to win this to make a bowl, but I'm not a believer that program like LSU really cares about getting to 6-6 and going to a crappy bowl.
On the flip side, this Arkansas program is a team that is trying to take that next step under 2nd year head coach Sam Pittman and winning on the road against LSU would be big for this team. It would also give them a legit shot at ending the year 4-4 in SEC Play, which is pretty big for a team that has 4 conference wins total the last 4 years. Give me the Razorbacks -2.5!
|11-13-21||Kansas +31 v. Texas||57-56||Win||100||54 h 23 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS SHOCKER (Kansas +31)
As difficult as it may be to bet on a team like Kansas, I just think you have to take a shot with the Jayhawks given this spot. It's not quite the same spot as we saw last week with Florida, who lost outright 40-17 as a 20.5-point favorite at South Carolina, but it does have some similarities.
The two biggest differences being Florida was coming off that massive game against Georgia. Texas did just play a big game against ISU, but that game really didn't mean a whole lot for the Longhorns. THe other is Texas is at home, where Florida was on the road.
The key here is the number we are getting is north of 30. There's nothing for Texas to play for. I know they still need two more wins to get bowl eligible, but going 6-6 and playing in a crappy bowl is not something a program like Texas gets excited about.
I don't think there's any doubt that Kansas will be the more motivated team. Even though they aren't that good, everyone in the Big 12 is getting up to play Texas and Oklahoma with them leaving for the SEC. KU is also still trying to get that elusive first win in Big 12 play.
Now I don't know if they can win the game, but with how little Texas figures to care about this game and how poor they are defensively, I don't think it's asking a lot for the Jayhawks to keep this within the number. Give me Kansas +31!
|11-13-21||NC State +2 v. Wake Forest||42-45||Loss||-110||54 h 18 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (NC State +2)
I think the price is right with NC State in this spot. Wake Forest just had their perfect 8-0 start to the season put to rest with a 55-58 loss at North Carolina. Now I know that defeat didn't count against their ACC record (it was a non-conference game), I still think losing that first game of the year will be a bit much for this team to overcome.
I also was never really a big believer in this Wake Forest team. The biggest reason they got off to that 8-0 start was an easy schedule. They also were a bit lucky to have not lost before that with how bad they are on defense.
They have given up more than 300 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, the only exception coming against Duke. They are allowing 436 yards/game on the season. This NC State offense is going to be able to move the ball.
On the flip side of this, you could make a pretty strong argument that this Wolfpack defense will be the best defense that the Demon Deacons have seen this year.
This is also a massive game for both teams, as the winner of this game will be in prime position to win the ACC Atlantic. I just think NC State is the better team with the better defense. Give me the Wolfpack +2!
|11-13-21||Maryland v. Michigan State -13||21-40||Win||100||73 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CFB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Michigan St -13)
I'm shocked the Spartans are less than a two touchdown favorite at home against a bad Maryland team. I just feel like it's a bit of an overreaction to last week's 29-40 upset loss on the road against Purdue, especially given how much the public was on Michigan State in that game.
I stayed away from Sparty in that game for a couple of reasons. One was I thought that the Boilermakers were better than people thought and the other was the awful spot for Michigan State coming off that emotional come from behind win over rival Michigan the previous week.
The big key with jumping back on the Spartans after that loss, is the fact that nothing really changed long-term for Michigan State. They still control their destiny. If they win out and somehow beat Ohio State on the road, they will win the Big Ten East and play in the Big Ten title game. Win that and it's hard to believe they will be left out of the playoff.
So while that monster game against the Buckeyes looms next week, I don't see that being a lookahead type of deal for this team. Had they beat Purdue it would be a different story. They can't afford to look past Maryland and they know it.
As far as the matchup is concerned, there's a lot to like with Michigan State. Maryland hasn't proven they can stop anybody in the Big Ten. The Terps are giving up 39.0 ppg, 452 ypg and allowing 6.2 yards/play.
A few games back we saw them go on the road and give up 326 rushing yards to Minnesota. I just don't see a scenario where the Maryland defense goes on the road and is able to contain a great back like Kenneth Walker, who leads the country in rushing with 1,330 yards and is averaging 6.8 yards/carry.
I think the big concern a lot of people will have with Michigan State is their defense and whether or not they can trust them after watching the Wolverines and Boilermakers march up and down the field on them. The thing is, it's not as bad as it appears. Even with those two bad games, the Spartans are still giving up just 23.7 ppg and 5.4 yards/play in Big Ten play.
Maryland is also a pretty easy team to defend, as they are all pass and no run. It's not that they choose not to run, they just can't. Terps are averaging just 82 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground in Big Ten play. Michigan State is going to be able to sit back and play zone and I think they are not only going to be able to get off the field, but I think they could rack up the turnovers and really make this thing ugly. Give me Michigan State -13!
|11-13-21||Boston College +2 v. Georgia Tech||41-30||Win||100||50 h 7 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2)
I'm a little surprised to see the Eagles as a dog in this game. Boston College just played arguably their best game in more than a month, as they defeated Virginia Tech 17-3 as a 1-point home dog this past Friday. Prior to that win, BC had lost 4 straight and failed to cover their previous 3.
The thing I think that scares people with the Eagles is they don't like betting teams that can't score and this is a team that has not scored more than 17 points in each of their last 5 games.
I believe that's going to change. Last week Boston College finally got back starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who hadn't played since early September. He's a guy that a lot of people think will end up in the NFL after his days in Chestnut Hill.
He should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their attempts for 9.0 yards/attempt. The 9.0 yards/attempt is awful.
On the flip side, this Eagles defense has quietly gone the radar this year. BC is only giving up 18.8 ppg, 334 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. I just don't see Georgia Tech scoring enough to make a game of this. Give me Boston College +2!
|11-13-21||Central Florida +7.5 v. SMU||Top||28-55||Loss||-110||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCF +7.5)
I love UCF catching 7.5 on the road against SMU. A lot of people threw this Knights team under the bus when they lost star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but I think they have really responded well to the injury.
The offense hasn't been nearly as potent behind backup quarterback Mikey Keene, but he's been more than serviceable. Keene has completed 65% of his pass attempts for 1,089 yards and has a 12-6 TD/INT ratio. They also have a pretty good running back combo in Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson.
I think that UCF offense will be able to move the ball against a pretty average SMU defense. Mustangs are giving up just 25.7 ppg on the season, but do allow 415 ypg. They are also trending in the wrong direction, having allowed 32.7 ppg, 463 ypg and 6.0 yards/play in their last 3 games.
However, the biggest reason I'm looking to fade SMU, is I hate the spot they are in. SMU has went from being 7-0 and thinking they could challenge Cincinnati for the AAC title to losing back-to-back games and all the sudden basically being eliminated from any shot of the ACC title (they would need to beat Cincinnati on the road next week and have the Bearcats lose to either USF or ECU).
I just think with no clear path to the AAC title game, it's going to make it really hard for SMU to not be looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Cincy. Even if they don't think the Bearcats are going to lose one of those other two, they are going to be extremely motivated to end their perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. Give me the Knights +7.5!
|11-11-21||Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5||10-22||Win||100||23 h 35 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +7.5)
I know I'm going to be in the minority here, especially in the eyes of the public, but I like the Dolphins as a home dog against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. I don't really care if it's Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett, I think this Miami offense can move the ball on what I think is an overrated Baltimore defense.
I think a lot of people would be surprised by just how bad the numbers are for the Ravens defense. Baltimore is giving up 374 ypg, which is only slightly better than the 392 that the Dolphins give up. The more staggering stat is that they are giving up 6.5 yards/play, which I care about a lot more than yards/game. Just to compare, Miami is only giving up 5.9 yards/play and that drops to 5.3 yards/play at home.
The other thing for me is the spot. Baltimore just finished up playing 4 straight games at home with a thrilling 34-31 OT win against the Vikings, where they trailed 17-3 early and 24-10 in the 2nd half. It would not shock me at all on a short week if the Ravens went down to warm Miami against a bad Dolphins team and laid an egg.
The other thing with Miami is they have been closer to winning than what people give them credit for. Prior to their win over the Texans, they only trailed the Bills 10-3 going into the 4th quarter, lost by just 2 to a Falcons team that has taken off, by just 3 in London to the Jags, by 10 to the Colts and by 3 to the Raiders. I don't know if they can win this game, but 7.5 is too good a price to pass up. Give me the Dolphins +7.5!
|11-11-21||North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh||23-30||Push||0||22 h 53 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Thursday Night ATS NO-BRAINER (N Carolina +7)
This is just too many points to pass up with North Carolina. The Tar Heels are catching a touchdown on the road against Pitt. It's not been the year that UNC was hoping for when they opened up as a preseason Top 10 team, but it's not been as bad as you might think with their 5-4 record.
The Tar Heels have lost some games they shouldn't have. They had a bad showing in a road game against a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team, but the other 3 losses were at Va Tech 10-17, home to FSU 25-35 and at Notre Dame 34-44. They outgained all 3 of those teams.
They just put an end to Wake Forest's perfect season in last week's crazy 58-55 win over the Demon Deacons.
I just don't think there's as big a gap between them and Pitt as what this number suggests. Yes, the Tar Heels defense is not very good, but neither is the Panthers. Pitt only giving up 22.7 ppg and 344 ypg is as misleading as it gets. Whenever this team has went up against a good offense they have struggled. Not many better offenses out their than what they will face in UNC. This line should be a field goal not a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh +7!
|11-08-21||Bears v. Steelers -7||27-29||Loss||-105||10 h 30 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Steelers/Bears MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -7)
I'm going to lay the 7-points with Pittsburgh in this one. I just don't trust this Bears team at all. The are extremely limited offensively and the defense is missing two of their best players in linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson.
Mack didn't play at all in their last game against the 49ers and Jackson left on the second play from scrimmage. Without those two, San Francisco's limited offense was able to put up 33 points and 467 total yards. It's why I feel pretty good hear about the Steelers being able to do some things offensively.
On the flip side of the ball, I just don't think Justin Fields is there. I know he played better in the loss to the 49ers, but most of the damage he did was on the ground. There's just zero threat of a passing game. I just think this Steelers defense is going to be able to take the run away and I don't know what Chicago can do to stay on the field. I see something along a 24-10 type of game. Give me the Steelers -7!
|11-07-21||Titans +7.5 v. Rams||28-16||Win||100||76 h 47 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sunday Night Football NO-BRAINER (Titans +7.5)
I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 7.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I think the perception with Tennessee is that they are going to fall flat on their face without Derrick Henry at running back.
I'm not saying it's not a big blow to this team, but I think we are definitely seeing a big overreaction with this line because of Henry's absence. I think Adrian Peterson is going to surprise some people with how well he plays. People forget how good this guy was last year on a bad Lions team.
Tennessee is also not all run. They can beat you with the passing game with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has also really picked up his game of late. In his last 3 games, he's got 25 passes for 379 yards (had 10 catches for 130 yards in the previous 4 games).
This is also not the same elite defense for the Rams that we saw a year ago. Not to say they aren't an above average unit on that side of the ball, they just don't look to be on par to last year and some of that is definitely losing their defensive coordinator. Also, Keep in mind that 5 of their 8 opponents have been some bad offensive teams in the Colts, Bears, Giants, Lions and Texans. Give me the Texans +7.5!
|11-07-21||Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs||7-13||Win||100||72 h 58 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Packers +7.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Packers as a 7.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Not having Aaron Rodgers is a big blow to Green Bay's chances of winning this game, but that's not to say the Packers can't win this game with Jordan Love at quarterback.
Kansas City has shown nothing to this point of the season to make me think they can blow out a team like Green Bay. Daniel Jones and the Giants almost beat KC last week in a prime time game and that was one the Chiefs had to have.
Everyone just wants to assume that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team is going to flip a switch and just go right back to being the same team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. I just don't see it. Mahomes is not right. He's not seeing the field well at all and to me it looks like he's playing way to fast and not letting it come to him. He's trying to be the hero on every play.
You also got to looks at this Chiefs defense. They have played better of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Green Bay should be able to use their running game to really make the game easy for Love. I would not be shocked at all if Love came out and played well. I think KC wins the game, but I think this going to be a 1-score game in the 4th quarter that could go either way. Give me the Packers +7.5!