|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-07-21||Cardinals v. 49ers||Top||31-17||Loss||-110||114 h 43 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK)
I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage.
This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week.
Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special.
This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK!
|11-07-21||Chargers -1 v. Eagles||27-24||Win||100||113 h 25 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Chargers -1)
I'm shocked the Chargers are only a 1-point favorite at the Eagles in Week 9. It almost makes me wonder if there's some covid problems or something we don't know about with LA. Unfortunately you just can't handicap that and I just can't pass up on this line.
I'm not sure why the Eagles are getting this much respect from the books. Sure they looked great in last week's 44-6 win over the Lions, but I loved Philly in that game. They were laying just 3.5 on the road vs an awful Detroit team that was in a massive letdown spot. The Lions were coming off a devastating 19-28 loss at the Rams. A game they led 19-17 going into the 4th quarter. Losing how they did definitely played into the bad spot, but it was also the emotional letdown from playing as hard as they could for Goff in his first game vs his former team.
The other two wins for Philly are a 21-18 road win against a struggling Panthers team and a Week 1 win over the Falcons. We saw them lose 21-41 at Dallas, 30-42 at home to the Chiefs and 22-28 at home to the Bucs. In those 3 games the Eagles defense gave up an average of 416.7 ypg.
I got some concerns with the Chargers defense, but there's no reason I can find that would make me think Justin Herbert and that LA offense won't have their way on Sunday.
I do get the Eagles are a good running team and the Chargers have not been good vs the run, but I don't think it's bad enough that Philly is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this game. Another thing with Philly's run game is they lost their top back in Miles Sanders before that Lions game. Something I don't think that's getting much attention because the Eagles just had 236 rushing yards in that win over the Lions. I really think LA should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me the Chargers -1!
|11-07-21||Raiders v. Giants +3||16-23||Win||108||69 h 33 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Giants +3)
I will take my chances with the Giants as a 3-point home dog against the Raiders. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Giants team the past couple of weeks. They had dominating 25-3 win over the Panthers as a 3-point home dog in Week 7 and then went on the road and gave the Chiefs all they could handle in a 17-20 loss on Monday Night Football.
The offense still has a ways to go, but that defense has really impressed me. They held the Panthers to a mere 173 total yards and then only gave up 368 to Mahomes and the Chiefs. A game no one wants to give them any credit for. All everyone wants to talk about is how bad KC is playing.
On the flip side of this, I really have a hard time seeing Las Vegas showing up and playing well in this game given what's happened to their young star wide out Henry Ruggs III. For those that don't know, Ruggs III drove drunk and killed somebody this past week and will be spending the next 10 years or so in prison. Ruggs currently leads LV in receiving with 469 yards and was averaging a team-best 19.5 yards/reception. Not having that big play guy is going to make it that much harder on Carr and this offense.
It's also nothing like when they came out fired out with something to prove after Gruden was fired. Focusing on football will be really hard for this Raiders team not just this week but the rest of the season. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants didn't win this game in a blowout. Give me New York +3!
|11-07-21||Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens||31-34||Win||100||69 h 31 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +6.5)
I just think there's too much value to pass up a play on the Vikings as a 6.5-point dog against the Ravens. A lot of people were burned by Minnesota in last week's loss to the Cowboys, as everyone was on them with the Cowboys playing without Prescott. Not only did the Vikings not cover, they lost the game outright.
I also think people are drawn to bet Baltimore with the Ravens coming off their bye week. Having the extra rest is nice and all, but the number here has been inflated because of it. I also think there's this perception that the Ravens are this elite team, when they haven't really played like one.
Baltimore's 5-2 record looks great, but they could very easily be 2-5. They trailed 17-28 in the 4th quarter of a 36-35 win over the Chiefs, needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Lions 19-17 and somehow beat the Colts 31-25 in OT after trailing 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Lamar Jackson has been sacked 3 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. The defense is also not what we are use to seeing. The biggest weakness being their secondary.
If they can just give Kirk Cousins a little bit of time in the pocket, he's going to have a huge game here. Either way, I see this as a one score game in the 4th quarter, making it an easy play on Minnesota. Give me the Vikings +6.5!
|11-07-21||Browns v. Bengals -2.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-110||68 h 26 m||Show|
50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5)
I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite.
What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort.
As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets.
On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5!
|11-06-21||Indiana +20.5 v. Michigan||7-29||Loss||-110||52 h 13 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER (Indiana +20.5)
I've been down this road before with Indiana and it hasn't gone well. I played them at almost the exact same number at home a couple weeks ago against Ohio State and they lost the game 54-7. I just can't help myself by roll the dice with the Hoosiers, especially given the spot for the Wolverines.
Michigan is coming off a devastating 33-37 loss to in-state rival Michigan State. That loss snapped the Wolverines perfect 7-0 start to the season and it's one that will be tough to get over. Not just from who the game was against, but how it played out with them leading by 30-14 in the 2nd half and not being able to hold on.
You also got to take into consideration that they got a much bigger game on deck at Penn State next week, making this a bit of a sandwich spot for Michigan. Keep in mind that while Indiana got destroyed by the Buckeyes, they did only lost 15-20 at home to Michigan State the week prior. I just don't think the Wolverines are good enough offensively to win here by 3 or more touchdowns, especially given the big letdown hurdle they have to overcome. Give me the Hoosiers +20.5!
|11-06-21||Texas v. Iowa State -6.5||Top||7-30||Win||100||52 h 15 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (ISU -6.5)
I really like Iowa State as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Longhorns. I think it's a really good buy low spot on the Cyclones off a shocking 31-38 loss at West Virginia. The absence of linebacker Mike Rose was definitely felt in the loss to the Mountaineers, but he will be back for this game.
I know both of these teams have all but played their way out of the Big 12 title game, but there's still some hope that if ISU can win out they could sneak back into the mix. It's not crazy to think that Oklahoma St and Baylor could lose two more conference games and if ISU beats Oklahoma, they would need just one more setback by the Sooners to own the tie-breaker on them (OU still has to play at Baylor or OK State).
It's a different story for Texas. After last week's 24-31 loss at Baylor, there really isn't a path for the Longhorns with 3 conference losses already, especially given they have already lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Baylor.
All that's left for Texas is to play for pride and that can be tough for a program like the Longhorns who expect to be contending for National Championships.
You also got to wonder if the way Texas has been losing doesn't set them up for an absolute meltdown. The Longhorns had a 21-10 lead in the 2nd half of their loss vs Baylor. The week before they were 17-3 early and 24-13 in the 2nd half of a 24-32 loss to the Cowboys. The game before that they blew a 38-20 halftime lead vs Oklahoma. Give me Iowa State -6.5!
|11-06-21||Iowa -12 v. Northwestern||Top||17-12||Loss||-110||52 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Iowa -12)
I was clearly on the wrong side with Iowa +3.5 in last week's ugly loss at Wisconsin. So were a lot of others. I just think most will have a hard time coming back with the Hawkeyes as a double-digit road favorite against a Northwestern program that has given them problems in the past. I'm not only going to fire back on Iowa, I'm loading up on the Hawkeyes this Saturday.
The biggest difference between Iowa's 6-0 start and their back-to-back ugly losses to Purdue and Wisconsin is turnovers. Iowa was winning the turnover battle at an alarming rate in their 6-0 start. They are -6 in that department in their last 2 games. You also got to look at the fact that they just played two really good defenses.
I just think it has Iowa way undervalued here against an awful Northwestern team. The Wildcats were one of the few teams that didn't bring back a plethora of starters and they really didn't do anything in the transfer portal. You can see it in the numbers. The Wildcats are scoring just 19.0 ppg and are giving up 27.1 ppg. Numbers that get a lot worse if you just look at conference play, as they are only scoring 14.0 ppg and giving up 35 ppg in Big Ten play.
Not only are they giving up a ton of points, they are allowing 457.8 ypg and giving up close to 6 yards/carry vs the run. If Iowa can run the football, they can move the ball and I just don't see that Northwestern offense being able to have the kind of success needed to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Hawkeyes -12!
|11-06-21||Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5||28-31||Loss||-105||73 h 23 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Arkansas -5)
I think a lot of people are going to be hesitant to take the Razorbacks in this game after just watching Mississippi State roll Kentucky 31-17 at home last week. You might remember that line stunk, as we had an unranked Bulldogs team listed as the favorite over the No. 12 ranked team in the country.
Not only are people going to think twice about betting against Mississippi State, there's been a lot to get excited about with this Arkansas team after their 4-0 start that saw them knock off both Texas and Texas A&M.
The biggest thing that brought the Razorbacks back to reality was the schedule. They had to play back-to-back road games against Georgia and Ole Miss before hosting a very underrated Auburn team that I think some people are starting to realize just how good they are.
They snapped their 3-game skid, but it was against a cupcake in Arkansas-Pine Bluff. No one is going to read anything into that result.
For me it's all about the eye test and I just think Arkansas is a really good football team and when you look at the matchup, there's reason to believe we are getting a great price on the Razorbacks.
The strength of this Arkansas defense is their secondary. Going into the season, I had them as a Top 25 secondary in the nation. They have more than lived up to the hype. They rank 8th overall and 4th among Power 5 teams in passing yards allowed per game at 167.5.
I just don't think it's the DNA of a Mike Leach offense to not throw the ball at all costs. Regardless if that's the best strategy to attack the defense you are playing. They remind me a lot of the Chiefs in the NFL. Even though teams are 100% playing pass, they continue to throw it when the running lanes are there.
So while the passing yards may be there for Mississippi State in the end, I don't think they are going to be able to put a ton of points on the board. Keep in mind, it can be really hard to score in the redzone when you can't run and the other team has the talent to defend the pass.
If a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.6 yards/play can give us anything, I see this being a very comfortable win for Arkansas. It also doesn't hurt that Arkansas comes into this game off a bye. Give me the Razorbacks -5!
|11-06-21||NC State -2.5 v. Florida State||Top||28-14||Win||100||49 h 39 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -2.5)
I love NC State laying less than a field goal on the road against Florida State. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how it is that the Wolfpack are this shot of a favorite against a FSU team that is just 3-5.
I think when a line looks off like this, you can almost talk yourself into taking the other side and I've heard a heck of a lot more people picking FSU in this game than I have people siding with NC State. The fact that not everyone is screaming take the Wolfpack, makes me feel a lot more comfortable backing NC State.
I think the biggest thing that gets lost with this handicap is the emotional letdown that has to come from last week's game at Clemson. A game they led 20-17 until giving up a TD to the Tigers in the final minute of regulation. I know Clemson is down, but these other ACC teams don't care. The Tigers are still the biggest game on the schedule.
So while there will be those that play the card that FSU will want to play spoiler against NC State's quest to win the ACC Atlantic, I'm just not buying it.
I also don't love the matchup at all for the Seminoles. FSU is a pretty one-dimensional offense that really needs to be able to run the ball and are going up against stingy NC State defense that is giving up just 18 ppg and 339.8 ypg in ACC play. Wolfpack also give up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run. FSU's defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 415.4 ypg in ACC play. Give me the Wolfpack -2.5!
|11-06-21||Oklahoma State -2.5 v. West Virginia||24-3||Win||100||88 h 14 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma State -2.5)
I was lucky enough to get in on the Cowboys -2.5 before the line jumped to -3.5 and I would still recommend a play on Oklahoma State at -3.5.
It took me some time to come around on this Oklahoma State team and while I think more and more are jumping on the Gundy bandwagon, I still feel like this Cowboys team doesn't get the respect they deserve. We have seen this week in and week out with this team, as they come in having covered 6 straight games.
There's also been nothing fluky about it. Oklahoma State has outgained every team during this stretch, including the game they lost against ISU. Cowboys are outgaining teams on the season by 100 ypg and by 154.6 ppg in their 5 Big 12 games. W. Virginia is getting outgained by only 2 yards/game, but are giving up 400.2 ypg in Big 12 games.
I also think you got to look at the two defenses in play. Oklahoma State is giving up just 17 ppg, 274.8 ypg and 4.8 yards/play in Big 12 games. The Mountaineers are allowing 26.4 ppg, 400.2 ypg and 6.4 yards/play in Big 12 games.
Offensively I would say the two teams are pretty even, so it really comes down to me, who I think can get the stops needed and that's a pretty easy one. Just feels like to me the Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect from winning outright their last two games vs TCU and ISU.
I know you could say the Cyclones and Cowboys are even, but keep in mind that ISU didn't have the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Mike Rose in that loss to the Mountaineers. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5
|11-06-21||Baylor v. TCU +7||28-30||Win||100||48 h 8 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational Public Money ATS MASSACRE (TCU +7)
I just got to take a shot here with TCU as a 7-point home dog against Baylor. These two teams from the state of Texas do not like each other, I think even more so there's a real hatred from the TCU side.
I kind of had this game circled as a big effort game for TCU when I looked at the games Sunday and then we found out that head coach Gary Patterson was being let go. I just thought there was going to be motivation from the Horned Frogs not only from being a home dog, but also the chance to spoil one of their biggest rivals quest to make the Big 12 title game.
Now we should get as big an effort as TCU can muster after Patterson leaving, as teams always seem to lay it all on the line in that first game after a coach gets fired.
I'm also just not quite sold on this Baylor team. One thing that I think gets overlooked in their 7-1 start, is the fact that they have played just 3 true road games and two of those were cupcake opponents in Texas State and Kansas. The one good team they played was Oklahoma State and they lost 24-14 while getting outgained 401 to 280 (24-10 first downs). Give me the Horned Frogs +7!
|11-06-21||California -11.5 v. Arizona||3-10||Loss||-108||48 h 40 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (California -11.5)
I got no problem laying the 11.5 on the road with Cal, as the Golden Bears will travel to Tucson to take on a winless Arizona team. I just think a lot of people will look and see that Cal is just 3-5 and will have a hard time trusting the Bears to cover double-digits on the road, especially after Arizona just covered their last two games as a double-digit dog. The Wildcats lost 16-21 at home to Washington as a 17.5-point dog and 34-41 at USC as a 21.5 point dog.
Simply put, the market has adjusted some on Arizona after those results and now it's time to go the other way. I also think this Cal team might be one of the more underrated squads in the country. The Golden Bears are just 3-5, but a lot of that is some bad luck in close games. They are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
They come in having covered 3 straight and have really done some impressive things offensively in this stretch. Over this 3-game span they are as balanced as it gets, averaging 207.7 rushing yards/game and 244.7 passing yards/game. This includes a road game at Oregon and a home game against a very good Oregon State team.
Cal is also 3-5 despite outscoring their opponents by 1.6 ppg and outgaining them by 57 ypg. Arizona is 0-8 for good reason. They are getting outscored by 15.0 ppg and outgained by 30 ypg. Give me Cal -11.5!
|11-06-21||Missouri +39 v. Georgia||6-43||Win||100||45 h 42 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +39)
I'm will take my chances with Missouri losing by less than 40 in their game against No. 1 ranked Georgia on Saturday. I just think the public perception is that no matter what the line is, there's no way they are going to bet against the Bulldogs against a team like Missouri.
I get it. Georgia has been incredible and certainly look like the best team in the country, but asking any team to win a conference game by 40+ is a lot.
Now I know the Bulldogs defense has not allowed more than 13 points in a game this season, but if there's one game they might not be as locked in on that side, it's this one. Georgia just beat arguably their biggest rival last week in Florida, which many thought was their last real test leading up to the SEC title game.
Just that game alone could spark a letdown, but it's really the 4th straight big game that the Bulldogs have played. It started with a home game against an undefeated Arkansas team back in early October. They then went on the road to Auburn before hosting another undefeated team in Kentucky. Ending with the game against Florida. Add in the massive spread and it's going to be hard for Georgia to take this one seriously.
There's also no incentive anymore to blow teams out once they are up big. Georgia's path to the payoff is paved as long as they just win out. Given the schedule they have just played, this feels like a game where if it does get out of hand, the starters could get pulled a little earlier than normal.
Even if Missouri only scores 13, I think they will be able to get to 20, it would take 60 points from Georgia to cover this game. Give me the Tigers +39!
|11-05-21||Virginia Tech v. Boston College +3||3-17||Win||100||23 h 6 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3)
I'll take my chances with Boston College as a home dog in Friday's home game against Virginia Tech. This line is begging you to take the Hokies, as Virginia Tech comes in off a 26-17 win and cover as a 3-point road dog at Georgia Tech, while the Eagles enter on a 4-game losing streak. A horrific stretch offensively for the Eagles, who have scored just 13, 7, 14 and 6 points respectively.
Simply put the line here stinks and when something smells this bad, especially in a weeknight game, you got to look the other way. Note that even with everyone running to place a bet on the Hokies, this line is not moving. That tells me the books have got some respected money on BC and do not want to give out the 3.5 to the wiseguys.
I think the biggest thing that's getting overlooked with Va Tech, is prior to winning and covering against Georgia Tech this past Saturday, they were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games.
It's a great sell high spot on the Hokies, who have looked great offensively in their last two games and have taken great care of the ball. History backs this up. Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight games where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on the road after 2 straight games where they didn't have a single turnover.
We also see that road favorites who are not good vs the run (allow 4.75 or more yards/carry) and have given up 5.5 or more yards/carry in each of their last 2 games are just 14-39 (26.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me BC +3!
|11-04-21||Jets v. Colts -10||30-45||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Jets/Colts TNF VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -10)
I'm shocked we have seen this much overreaction from last week. The lookahead on this game was around the Colts -14 and we are getting them at -10. Everyone is jumping on the Mike White bandwagon after his 400+ yard performance in his first ever start last week against the Bengals.
I just think that big game by White was more a culprit of the Bengals just not showing up to play after such a big game the previous week against Baltimore and it being their 3rd straight road game. Not to mention the Jets had just lost 13-54 the previous week to the Pats.
I just think if White was as good as he looked in that start, he would have somehow forced his way onto the field before now. Guy was drafted back in 2018.
I also think there's a narrative out there that with the Colts heartbreaking 31-34 OT loss last week to the Titans their season is now over with them sitting at just 3-5 and and essentially 4-games back of Tennessee in the AFC South.
No questions is a much bigger uphill climb after losing that game, but I'm not buying at all that this team is going to just throw in the towel with more than half of the schedule still to play. I like the Colts to win here and win going away. Give me Indianapolis -10!
|11-03-21||Central Michigan +9.5 v. Western Michigan||42-30||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Wednesday MACtion MONEYMAKER (C Michigan +9.5)
Give me the Chippewas as a 9.5-point dog against the Broncos in Wednesday's battle for the Victory Cannon. I like to lean to the dog in rivalry games like this, but this was a no-brainer for me. I don't understand at all why Western Michigan is laying more than a touchdown in this game. It just feels like to me that the market is a little high on this Broncos team and I think a lot of it has to do with that early season road win at Pitt.
Central Michigan is just 4-4, but two of their losses were non-conference games on the road against SEC teams. Their 2 conference losses have been a 11-point loss on the road against a good Miami (OH) team and a 1-point loss to arguably the best team in the league in Northern Illinois.
Central Michigan's offense is built around the passing game. They come in averaging 285 ypg thru the air. That's worth noting, as these kind of pass heavy offenses have given Western Michigan problems. The Broncos are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. Give me the Chippewas +9.5!
|10-31-21||Patriots +4.5 v. Chargers||27-24||Win||100||71 h 56 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +4.5)
We may have missed the best number, but I still see more than enough value with the Pats at +4.5 to back them. I think a lot of people have really fallen in love with this Chargers team and at the same time don't trust this New England team.
The Pats are just 3-4 going into Week 8 with two of their wins coming against the Jets and the other against the Texans. With that said, they are dangerously close to being 6-1.
They had 1st and 10 at the Dolphins 11 yard line down 16-17 and fumbled the ball with just minutes to play. They were a missed 56 yard FG away from being up 20-19 on TB with less than a minute to play. They were up 21-20 on Dallas with the ball and 2:34 on the clock and threw a pick-six. They get a 75-yard TD on their next series to lead 29-26, only to let the Cowboys get a FG and then go on to lose in OT. Even in their 28-13 loss to the Saints they outgained NO 300-252.
As for the Chargers, they are a good team, but I don't think they are as good as what people think. They were lucky to win that game at KC in Week 3 and somehow they get that 47-42 win over the Browns after trailing by 14 in the 2nd half.
The biggest thing that gets overlooked with LA is their defense and the inability it has at stopping the run. No body is better at exploiting a team's weakness than Belichick and there is a massive mismatch in this game in favor of the Pat's O-line and the Chargers defensive front (the front 7 for LA is awful outside of Bosa).
I also like Belichick and his defense to make things a little difficult on Justin Herbert. If you remember last year when these two teams played, Herbert was a mere 26 of 53 for 209 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs in a 45-0 Pats win. Give me New England +4.5!
|10-31-21||Jaguars v. Seahawks -3||Top||7-31||Win||100||71 h 55 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3)
Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback.
It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over.
Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play.
Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3!
|10-31-21||Steelers v. Browns -3.5||15-10||Loss||-102||95 h 37 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Browns -3.5)
I'm going to take the Cleveland Browns as a -3.5 point home favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just feel like the number here is way too low. I just think all the questions around this Browns team with their lengthy injury report and how much the offensive struggled in last week's game against the Broncos, has Cleveland way undervalued going into this matchup.
There's no definite word out there on Browns starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, but when he was asked this week about his non throwing shoulder, he said it was feeling a lot better and there's absolutely a chance he plays. Even if he doesn't play, I don't feel the drop off to backup Case Keenum is all that much. Keenum didn't wow us in his start vs Denver, but he wasn't horrible. Most importantly he took care of the football with no turnovers.
Cleveland is also optimistic that they will have stud running back Nick Chubb back, though I don't think they are in terrible hands if they have to go with D'Ernest Johnson after watching how hard this guy ran it last week. Johnson carried it 22 times for 146 yards and the Broncos couldn't stop him knowing he was getting the ball.
I just think that regardless if Mayfield and Chubb suit up, this Browns team will be able to do some things offensively at home against this Steelers defense. Everyone loves to praise this Pittsburgh defense, but it's not been as elite as what people think. They are giving up 5.8 yards/play and facing a Browns offense that averages 6.3 yards/play. They are also middle of the back vs the run, giving up 4.2 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense to do anything against this Browns defense. Pittsburgh only averages 5.3 yards/play and that drops to 4.9 yards/play on the road. Cleveland only gives up 5.3 yards/play and a mere 4.5 yards/play at home.
I just think the Browns have the edge on both sides of the ball in this game and this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Keep in mind the Steelers were a 6.5-point dog at Buffalo and 6-point dog at Green Bay. Two teams I rate very closely to Cleveland at this point in the season. Give me the Browns -3.5!
|10-31-21||Eagles -3.5 v. Lions||44-6||Win||100||68 h 51 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Eagles -3.5)
I really like the Eagles at this price and I love the situation that this game falls in. Every one has thrown Philadelphia under the bus after their 2-5 start. So much so that the betting public is wanting to play the Lions in this game as a mere 3.5-point dog.
The one thing that people can use to convince themselves that Detroit is the play, is the fact that the Lions play hard and it's got them to keep some games closer than expected. I think in any sport, bad teams who play hard can do that, largely because the opponent doesn't bring their 'A' game against them.
I got to believe that even at 2-5, the Eagles aren't quite to the breaking point of giving up on their season. While the top 5 teams all look great in the NFC, it's really a mixed bag after that. It's anyone's game for those final two wild card spots.
I just think if the Eagles come to play, they can not only win this game, but win it going away. Keep in mind the Eagles have just gone through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule playing @ Dallas, home vs KC, @ Carolina, home vs TB and @ Las Vegas.
I also wonder just how much fight the Lions are going to have this week. Detroit just put everything they had into beating the Rams last week, as they really wanted to get Goff a win vs his old team. Give me the Eagles -3.5!
|10-30-21||Louisville +7 v. NC State||13-28||Loss||-116||77 h 14 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Louisville +7)
I'm going to take the Louisville Cardinals as a 7-point road dog against the NC State Wolfpack. I just feel like this is way too many points for NC State to be laying in this game. I just don't get the love people have with this Wolfpack team.
Everyone was on them last week as a short road favorite at Miami and they lost that game outright. It just feels like to me that when NC State had that 27-21 OT win at home against Clemson early in the year, the perception of this team went way up, when it turns out that it really wasn't that impressive of a win.
Everyone wants to talk about how good the NC State defense is, but I'm not as sold on them being as elite as the numbers. The Wolfpack come in giving up just 16.7 ppg, 313 ypg and 4.9 yards/play. I just feel a lot of that is a result of who they have played. We saw La Tech put up 480 yards on this defense a few weeks ago and Miami with a backup QB had 420 last week.
I just have a hard time seeing NC State being able to contain one of the most underrated players in college football in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. This guy has thrown for 1,684 yards and completed 63.4% of his attempts, while also rushing for 480 yards and 13 TDs. Those 13 TDS are tied for the most rushing TDs by any player in the country and he's had at least 2 on the ground in all but one game this season.
The other thing to note about this Cardinals team, is they are a couple bad breaks away from coming into this game on a 6-game win streak. They lost on a last second field goal at Wake Forest, who is currently 7-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. They also had a 33-34 loss at home to Virginia, where they had a 30-13 lead going into the 4th quarter. There only other loss was the opener against Ole Miss, where they played an awful 1st half of football.
I just see these two teams as more of equals and feel the number here should be something more along the lines of NC State as a 3-point home favorite. Give me the Cardinals +7!
|10-30-21||Duke v. Wake Forest -16.5||7-45||Win||100||65 h 45 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational Mismatch ATS BLOWOUT (Wake Forest -16.5)
Normally I would be hesitant to lay a number like this with a team like Wake Forest, who is getting all kinds of love with their 7-0 start that has them ranked No. 13 in the country. The thing is, I just think the books can be a little slower to inflate the numbers on a program like Wake Forest, who hasn't been in this spot before and really wasn't expected to be here.
I just don't know how when you look at the matchup here, you don't feel good about the Demon Deacons winning this game by at least 17 points. Duke is 0-3 in ACC play and have been outscored on average in those 3 losses by a score of 39.0 to 11.3.
The Blue Devils have shown zero ability to slow down a good offensive team and this Wake Forest team is really special on the offensive side of the ball. The Demon Deacons are averaging 43.1 ppg, 470 ypg and 6.6 yards/play and that's against teams who on average only give up 29.8 ppg, 384 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. Duke is giving up 31.6 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.3 yards/play.
I know the Wake Forest defense has given up a lot of points in their last 3 games. They allowed 34 to Louisville, 37 to Syracuse and 56 to Army last week. The thing is, Louisville has one of the best QBs in the country, the Orange have one of the best RBs in the country and Army has that triple-option attack. In their 4 other games this season they didn't allow more than 17 points in any game. I think Duke could get to 20 points and still fail to cover by more than a touchdown, as I think WF is going to put up 40+. Give me the Demon Deacons -16.5!
|10-30-21||Boston College v. Syracuse -6||6-21||Win||100||64 h 11 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Syracuse -6)
I will gladly lay the 6-points at home with the Orange against the Eagles. I just think we are still seeing BC get a little bit too much respect from their 4-0 start. They appeared to back up that strong start with a close 13-19 loss at Clemson, but that's proven to be more a result of the Tigers just not being very good. Since that game the Eagles have lost 7-33 at home to NC State and 14-28 at Louisville. That's now 3 straight games where BC has failed to score more than 14 points.
That struggling offense will now be up against a good Syracuse defense that is giving up just 24.6 ppg, 325 ypg and 5.0 yards/play. It's also worth pointing out how much better the Orange D has played at home, where they are giving up just 288 ypg, 4.4 yards/play and 2.2 yards/rush.
On the flip side of this, The Eagles defense doesn't match the numbers. BC is giving up just 20.7 ppg and 345 ypg, but a lot of that had to with their 3 non-conference games against Colgate, UMass and Temple.
Just last week we saw Louisville rack up 331 rushing yards on this Eagles defense and now they must figure out a way to slow down one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker, who already has over 1,000 yards on the ground (1,060). Not to mention, they got a QB who can run it, as Garrett Shrader has 592 yards and he wasn't even the starter to start the year. Combined Tucker and Shrader have 22 rushing scores this season. I just don't think it's asking a lot here for the Orange to win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Syracuse -6!
|10-30-21||Washington State +16.5 v. Arizona State||34-21||Win||100||64 h 40 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Public Money BOOKIE MASSACRE (Washington St +16.5)
I'm more than happy to take a shot here with Washington State as a 16.5-point road dog against the Sun Devils in Saturday's Pac-12 action. Everyone was running to bet against the Cougars last week when the news came out that Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich and several assistants were being let go because of them not willing to get vaccinated.
While the Cougars did end up losing 19-21 at home to BYU, they cashed as a 3.5-point dog. That's now 5 straight covers for Washington State and I think they are way undervalued again, as the perception now becomes that the Cougars played their hearts out after losing their coach and are going to fall flat on their face on the road against a good Arizona State team.
I'm just not buying it. I think if anything what happened with Rolovich has brought this Washington State even closer together as a team and they are going to go out and lay everything they have on the line in this game.
I'm not saying they are going to be able to win the game, but I really like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Cougars +16.5!
|10-30-21||Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin||7-27||Loss||-107||60 h 20 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Big Money ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Iowa +3.5)
I'm going against my traditional ways here, as I'm almost always included to tank an unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. I just don't think the line here is justified. Prior to the Hawkeyes losing that game against Purdue a couple weeks ago, the lookahead for this game was Iowa -2.5.
I know the Hawkeyes looked bad in the loss to the Boilermakers, but this is still the same team that started out the season 6-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the country. Iowa also has a massive edge here in rest, as the Hawkeyes are coming off a bye (3-0 ATS L3 seasons off a bye), where Wisconsin had to play a physical game against Purdue last week. You also have to keep in mind that the Boilermakers are a team that has just had Iowa's number under Jeff Brohm.
The biggest thing that Purdue was able to do in that game was throw the football. Aidan O'Connell threw for 375 yards with 240 of those yards going to wide out David Bell. Wisconsin just isn't going to be able to do anything close to that with Graham Mertz. The guy has had 10 or fewer completions in each of the Badgers last 4 games.
I just feel like in a game that figures to be extremely low scoring and more than likely decided by a field goal, you can't pass up on the Hawkeyes catching over a field goal. Give me Iowa +3.5!
|10-28-21||South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5||14-29||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (E Carolina -9.5)
I got no problem laying 9.5 with the Pirates at home against South Florida on Thursday. I actually think there's some decent value here with East Carolina laying fewer than two touchdowns. It just feels like to me that we are getting a good price on the Pirates due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses, while the Bulls are fresh off a 34-14 blowout win against Temple as a mere 1.5-point favorite.
I just think that game for USF was an aberration for this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Prior to that game against the Owls, the Bulls had given up at least 32 in the 5 other games they have played against a FBS opponent. I just have a really hard time seeing South Florida being able to go on the road and keep a talented Pirates offense in check.
On the flip side of this, I think it's going to be really hard for South Florida to go score for score with ECU to keep this game competitive. The Bulls are as one dimensional as it gets offensively for a team that isn't running the triple-option. USF is averaging 44 rush attempts compared to just 26 pass attempts a game. Last week against Temple they ran it a ridiculous 73 times.
ECU is in no way an elite defensive team, but they also aren't as bad as the numbers would suggest. They give up 28.4 ppg and 430 ypg, but it's come against opponents that average 31.1 ppg and 431 ypg. They are only giving up 4.2 yards/carry vs the run and that drops to 3.3 yards/carry at home. They have also been better of late vs the run, giving up just 126.8 ypg over their last 4. Last week they went on the road and held Houston to just 87 rushing yards. If they can just get a few stops early in this game, this thing is going to get out of hand. Give me the Pirates -9.5!
|10-25-21||Saints v. Seahawks +4||13-10||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
40* (NF) - Saints/Seahawks MNF Vegas Insider (Seahawks +4)
I like the Seahawks as a 4-point home dog against the Saints on Monday Night Football. I just don't think New Orleans should be favored by more than a field goal in this game. Seattle is just getting way undervalued right now because of the injury to Russell Wilson.
We saw it last week in prime time, as the Seahawks went off as a 5.5-point dog at Pittsburgh. They wound up losing the game, but covered in a 20-23 defeat. A game they were only outgained 309 to 345.
I just don't see a lot of difference in the Steelers and the Saints. Both of those teams have not looked very good offensively and both rely a ton on their defense.
I know the Seattle defense isn't great, but the biggest thing they have struggled with is stopping teams that can throw the ball efficiently. That's not the strength of this Saints offense. The most yards New Orleans has had passing in any game was 271 and that was against the Football Team. They have had 235 or fewer in every other game.
The weather should also help the Seahawks defense, as it's expected to be an awful night in Seattle with a near 100% chance of rain and winds pushing 20 mph.
I think Geno Smith can do enough in what probably ends up being a very low scoring game to keep Seattle within a field goal and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Give me the Seahawks +4!
|10-24-21||Bears +13 v. Bucs||3-38||Loss||-118||72 h 43 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bears +13)
I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 13-point road dog against the Bucs. We saw it last year with the Chiefs after their SB win, the books just got tired of people winning money on them and they started to inflate their spreads by what felt like more than a FG per game.
I think we are seeing the same thing with Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are just 2-4 ATS to start the year and both of their covers were a bit fortunate. They won 48-25 against the Falcons as a 13-point favorite after going into the 4th quarter leading by a score of just 28-25. They also covered double-digits against the Dolphins where they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter.
Chicago isn't a great team, but they are a heck of a lot better than the Falcons and Dolphins, yet they are being priced the same.
I know Fields hasn't been the guy we thought we were going to get after his great preseason performances, but some of that in my opinion is coaching. While I'm not banking on anything, I do think there's reason to be optimistic he can get something going against this banged up Bucs secondary.
The other big thing for me, is I think Chicago's got a very underrated defense. Since giving up 34 in their opener to the Rams, they haven't allowed more than 30 in their last 5 games. Last week they held Green Bay to just 24 points and Aaron Rodgers and that Packers pass attack had just 169 thru the air. Tom Brady is great, but he is going to have to make it work in this game without two of his best options in tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Antonio Brown. Give me the Bears +13!
|10-24-21||Panthers -3 v. Giants||3-25||Loss||-105||95 h 10 m||Show|
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3)
I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point road favorite against the New York Giants in Week 7 of the NFL. Even after that tough loss we took with the Panthers in last week's OT loss at home to the Vikings, I'm not going to let that deter me from backing this team laying just a field goal against a bad Giants team that appears to be getting worse and worse as the season progresses.
I know this is going to be a big public play with everyone looking to fade the Giants right now, but we have seen a number of these short road favorites cover in recent weeks. I just think more than anything, we are getting value with the Panthers because of the fact that they come into this game having lost and failed to cover in each of their last 3 games.
Sam Darnold has been a big reason why Carolina has seen their season to a complete 180 flip after their 3-0 start. After throwing just 1 interception in that perfect 3-0 start to the season, Darnold has thrown 6 picks in the last 3 games.
Panthers head coach Matt Rhule appears to have had enough of trying to let the offense rely on the arm of Darnold. After the loss to the Vikings, Rhule came out and said the offense is going to have a vastly different look and is going to focus everything around the run game.
It's up in the air if this plan of attack can work long-term without Christian McCaffrey as the lead back, but I do think it's the right game plan against the Giants. In New York's last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 167.3 rushing yards/game.
I also think you got to look at how much the Giants offense is struggling to score. New York can't run the ball and Daniel Jones looks to be in over his head with all the injuries the Giants have around him on offense.
Highly unlikely that Saquon Barkley will be back for this game, they also figure to be missing talented rookie wide out Kadarius Toney. Two other wide outs, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are also both question. It's not just the skill players, they just lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and are now down three of their Week 1 starters on the offensive line, as starting guard Shane Lemieux and center Nick Gates are likely out for the year.
This just feels to me like the perfect get right spot for Carolina and we are getting them at quite the discount. Give me the Panthers -3!
|10-24-21||Jets v. Patriots -6.5||13-54||Win||100||68 h 15 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Patriots -6.5)
I was considering the Pats at -7, but was hoping this thing would drop to 6.5 at some point during the week and it did. I just think that because the Patriots come into this game at 2-4 there's value on them right now. NE has not been as bad as their record. The only game they lost that they didn't have a legit shot at winning is their Week 3 game against the Saints. They lost by 1-point against the Dolphins where they fumbled the game away, lost by 2 at home to the Bucs where they missed a late FG and just lost 29-35 at home in OT to the Cowboys.
One of their two wins came against these Jets, which they won going away 25-6. As he often does, Bill Belichick devised a game plan that made life miserable for a rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson completed just 19 of 33 attempts for 210 yards and 0 TD passes to 4 interceptions. It's not going to be any easier the second time around, especially on the road against a Pats team that will be all in to get back in the win column this week. Give me the Patriots -6.5!
|10-24-21||Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens||Top||41-17||Win||100||68 h 16 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5)
I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play.
That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home.
On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense.
Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5!
|10-23-21||Ohio State v. Indiana +21||54-7||Loss||-110||78 h 59 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Indiana +21)
I'll take the 3 touchdowns at home with the Hoosiers, as they will host 5th ranked Ohio State under the lights at a sold out Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. I just think we are getting too good a price here with Indiana in this spot.
No question it's been a disappointing season for the Hoosiers, who come into this game with a mere 2-4 record. However, it's not a big surprise to me. Indiana U7.5 was one of my favorite win total bets in college football this year.
I don't foresee them winning this game, but I do think there's reason to believe they can keep it within the number.
With Iowa getting upset last week at Purdue and the Buckeyes seeming to have figured things out since that loss to Oregon with 4 straight wins, the hype has returned in a big way around this Ohio State team.
I know they have dominated in their 4-game winning streak, outscoring their 4 opponents in this stretch by an average score of 54.5 to 14.3 (40.2 ppg). The thing is, those 4 wins are against Tulsa, Akron, Rutgers and Maryland.
Keep in mind the Buckeyes were only a 15-point road favorite at Rutgers a few weeks ago, so you can really see how the perception of this team has changed over the last month.
The key here is that as disappointing as this season has been for Indiana, you know they are going to be up for this game. In fact, I think to them it's almost like it's their Super Bowl, as it's going to take a remarkable finish for them to get to a bowl with their schedule. They can only lose two more and on top of this game have road games at Michigan and Purdue.
There's definitely some concerns with the Hoosiers offense without Michael Penix Jr under center, but as we saw in the Texa A&M/Alabama game, sometimes bad QBs can have one of those special nights. That's what I'm hoping for with backup Jack Tuttle.
The even bigger thing for me, is I think this Indiana defense can give Ohio State some troubles. The Hoosiers are only giving up 333 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, which is pretty impressive when you take into account 4 of their first 6 games have come against Iowa, Cincinnati, Penn State and Michigan State.
I also think it's worth pointing out the books have a history of over inflating the Buckeyes in this matchup. While Indiana is 0-10 SU in the last 10 meetings, they are 8-2 ATS during this stretch. Give me the Hoosiers +21!
|10-23-21||West Virginia v. TCU -4.5||Top||29-17||Loss||-110||53 h 11 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Prime Time MAX UNIT Top Play (TCU -4.5)
I love the Horned Frogs as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Mountaineers. I know it's been rough sledding for anyone that has been on TCU early in the year. The Horned Frogs are just 1-4-1 ATS and have lost 3 of their last 4, including a 34-42 loss at home to SMU as a 9.5-point favorite.
I just think it's created some value here. It's not like they have lost to bad teams. Their 3 losses are against SMU, Texas and Oklahoma. I know they got destroyed by the Sooners last week, but that's a different Sooners team with Caleb Williams at quarterback and TCU was without their star running back Zach Evans (probable to play this week).
I also don't understand the love for this West Virginia team. They are returning from their bye with a record of just 1-4, but if you look at the schedule there's reason to be cautious with this team going forward.
The Mountaineers only win is against Virginia Tech at home 27-21 and the more we have seen out of the Hokies the less impressive they look. WV lost 24-30 to a bad Maryland team in Week 1, lost at home to an average Texas Tech team and got annihilated last time we saw them at Baylor 20-45.
They did go on the road and give Oklahoma a major scare, losing by a final of just 13-16. However, that's back when the Sooners had Rattler at quarterback. You just can't overreact to that score. Give me TCU -4.5!
|10-23-21||Oregon v. UCLA -2||34-31||Loss||-110||49 h 40 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -2)
I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but the one I really like is UCLA as a 2-point home favorite against No. 10 Oregon.
The Bruins have taken a big step forward in year 4 under Chip Kelly and it shows with UCLA's 5-2 ATS record thru their first 7 games. They are going to need some help from Arizona State, who they lost to outright in their head-to-head matchup (Sun Devils have a very favorable schedule going forward), but if they can win this game and upset Utah on the road next week, they got a legit shot at winning the Pac 12 South and playing in the title game.
All I'm worried about is how they will play this week against the Ducks and I think they are going to deliver one of their better showings of the season.
I'm just not a believer in this Oregon team. Part of it's my lack of trust in quarterback Anthony Brown, but even more so it's the injury to running back C.J. Verdell. If you remember back to their upset of Ohio State, it was Verdell that was the difference in that game. Hre rushed for 161 yards and 2 scores, while also leading the team with 3 catches for 34 yards and a score.
I really think we learned a lot about Oregon going forward in last week's game against Cal at home. They won the game 24-17, but trailed 10-17 in the 4th quarter of that game. Keep in mind that was with the Ducks coming off a bye following a loss at Stanford. The right team is favored in this game. Give me UCLA -2!
|10-23-21||Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7||21-24||Loss||-110||48 h 14 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Oklahoma St/Iowa St Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Iowa State -7)
I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but one I really like is unranked Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against No. 8 Oklahoma State.
This line sticks out like a sore thumb. You got the No. 8 team in the country getting a full touchdown a week after they went on the road and upset No. 25 ranked Texas 32-24 as a 3.5-point dog.
Keep in mind the public is taking the bait. Everyone is on Oklahoma State and yet we have seen this line go up from -6.5 to -7. The books are flat out telling you who they think is going to cover.
I can definitely see why the books are putting their stock in this Iowa State team. Since Matt Campbell took over the program, this is a team that year in and year out has only gotten better as the season progresses.
I thought they played one of their best games of the season last week on the road against a good K-State team. While a spot in the playoffs is likely out of the picture, there's definitely a path back to the Big 12 title game for the Cyclones if they beat the Cowboys.
I just don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their 6-0 start. Their best win so far is last week's victory against Texas. A game they trailed 17-3 early and were getting Texas in a great spot after the Longhorns had that epic collapse the week before against Oklahoma.
I just think the Cowboys are really limited offensively and that's a problem against an elite Iowa State defense. Cyclones are only giving up 16.3 ppg, 251 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. They also only give up 2.8 yards/carry against the run and this is not a good passing attack for Oklahoma State.
I know the Cowboys have a pretty good defense of their own, but this is very good Iowa State offense. Cyclones are averaging 33.7 ppg and that's against opponents that on average only give up 25.4 ppg. If Brock Purdy plays anything close to like he did last week against the Wildcats, this game will not be close. Give me Iowa State -7!
|10-23-21||LSU v. Ole Miss -9||17-31||Win||100||48 h 1 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - LSU/Ole Miss SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Ole Miss -9)
This could completely backfire if Ole Miss ends up playing this game without starting quarterback Matt Corral, but I think this line tells you the books feel pretty confident that he will be out there on Saturday. It almost feels like it's more of Lane Kiffin just being a troll by listing him on the injury report and trying to throw off the Tigers.
You might be asking how you can bet against LSU as more than a TD dog after watching them just upset No. 20 Florida last week 49-42 as a 12.5-point dog. I just think that was more of a result of Florida just not coming to play. With all the guys the Tigers were going to be missing, everyone was calling for a Gators blowout. If you remember, that line moved a ton in favor of Florida leading up to that game.
I also wonder if the LSU players didn't go into that game thinking it might the last time they got to play for head coach Ed Orgeron. It certainly seemed to mean a lot more to them.
It would have been one thing if he was fired, but instead it will be Orgeron that finishes out the 2021 season as the guy in charge. It just feels a bit awkward to me that he's sticking around.
Either way, when a team plays with that kind of emotion and energy in a game like LSU did last week against Florida, it's really hard to come back the next week with that same intensity, especially on the road.
I just don't see LSU being able to go score for score with Ole Miss in this game. The Tigers secondary hasn't been great this year and they haven't played anything close to the caliber a passing attack as what Ole Miss brings to the table. If we can just a few stops from the Rebels defense, this is going to get really ugly in a hurry. Give me Ole Miss -9!
|10-23-21||Syracuse +3.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||41-36||Win||100||47 h 32 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Early Bird Saturday MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +3.5)
I'm a little shocked the Orange are catching more than a field goal on the road against the Hokies. It almost feels like there's this expectation that Syracuse is going to lay an egg after that tough loss to Clemson last week.
I would maybe buy this being a letdown if they pulled off the upset, but the fact of the matter is they lost their third straight game and are now just 3-4 after starting out 3-1. Keep in mind all 4 losses have been by 10 or fewer.
If the Orange are serious about making a bowl, this is one they really need to get and it's a game I think they should be favored to win. I don't like what I've seen out of this Hokies team this year. Virginia Tech has a so-so quarterback in Braxton Burmeister, no real threat of a running game and a injury-plagued defense.
This is also a Hokies defense that has had problems stopping the run. That's a problem here. Syracuse has one of the best backs in the country in freshman Sean Tucker. He's rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the Orange's last 5 games and 6 of 7 overall, including 157 last week against an elite Clemson defense. They also recently made the move to Garrett Shrader at quarterback and he's shown he can run it. Prior to be helding in check by Clemson, he rushed for 178 against Wake Forest and 137 against FSU.
That lackluster Va Tech offense will be up against a talented Syracuse defense that is giving up just 309 ypg and 4.7 yards/play. It just feels like the Hokies are getting a little too much respect here at home. Give me the Orange +3.5!
|10-20-21||Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5||27-30||Win||100||20 h 45 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - C Carolina/App State ATS NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +5.5)
Everyone is on the No. 14 ranked Chanticleers as less than a touchdown favorite on the road against Appalachian State. Not only because of how great Coastal Carolina has looked in route to a 6-0 start, but a lot of people tuned into the Mountaineers game last week against Lafayette, as it was a stand alone game on Tuesday. A game App State lost 41-13 as a 4.5-point favorite.
At this point in the season the books aren't going to just hang a bad number in a game they know is going to get bet with it being the only football game on the board Wednesday. That only makes me like the Mountaineers that much more with this too good to be true line the public is pounding with CC.
Yes, this is a good Chanticleers team, but you couldn't have started the season with an easier schedule than what they have. Their six wins are against The Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, ULM and Arkansas State. While most of those have been blowouts, they did just barely scrape by with a 28-25 win on the road against Buffalo.
I think it might prove to be a challenge for Coastal Carolina to take this massive of a step up in competition, especially on the road against what's going to be a pissed off Mountaineers team. App State played one of their worst games of the season in the blowout loss to the Ragin' Cajuns. They turned it over a season-high 4 times (previous high was 2) and 3 of those 4 turnovers led to short field TDs for Lafayette.
I expect a different looking Mountaineers team on their home field against a ranked team. App State has a pretty strong home field edge. They have only lost 5 times on their home field since 2015. Give me the Mountaineers +5.5!
|10-18-21||Bills -6 v. Titans||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) Bills/Titans MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Bills -6)
I'll be the first to admit that I thought Buffalo wasn't as good as everyone was saying coming into the 2021 season. I was wrong. The Bills not only look like the best team in the AFC, but maybe the best team in the league.
I know the Cardinals hold that claim after their 6-0 start, but let's forget the Bills only loss of the season came in Week 1, where they fell 16-23 at home to the Steelers. A loss is a loss, but it didn't feel like Pittsburgh was the better team on that day.
Buffalo was up 10-0 at the half with the Steelers doing next to nothing on offense. They were still up 10-6 in the 4th quarter before they turned it over on downs, which led to a short field and a field goal. Next time they have the ball they get a punt blocked that was returned for a TD.
Since that loss the Bills have demolished every team that has got in their way, outscoring opponents in their 4-game win streak 39.0 to 10.3! That includes last week's 38-20 beatdown of the Chiefs on the road.
*The only thing that scares me is the Bills having a letdown after that win over KC. It clearly was a game that meant a lot to them after the Chiefs knocked beat them in last year's AFC Championship Game.
There is reason to believe that Buffalo will show up. One, it's Monday Night Football with all the eyes on you. The other is revenge. Last year, the Bills had their 4-0 start to the season put to an end in an embarrassing 42-16 loss at Tennessee. A game many of you will remember had that epic stiff arm by Henry against Josh Norman.
Henry is always scary to bet against, as he just take over a game, but I'm just not sold on this Titans team. They have a MASSIVE list of injuries and their 3 wins were against the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. They got destroyed Week 1 at home by the Cardinals 38-13 and have that shocking lost to the Jets back in Week 4. Give me the Bills -6!
|10-17-21||Seahawks +5 v. Steelers||Top||20-23||Win||100||94 h 59 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5)
I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team.
I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep.
You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable.
Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5!
|10-17-21||Raiders v. Broncos -3.5||34-24||Loss||-101||90 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Broncos -3.5)
I'll lay the 3.5 with Denver at home against the Raiders on Sunday. I just think this Las Vegas team is in a really bad place with what's transpired over the last week with watching their head coach Jon Gruden basically be forced into resigning.
It's just a bad situation for a team that came into this season with expectations of at least making the playoffs. We have seen the offense take a massive step back the last couple of weeks and now they have to try to figure out on the fly how to go forward without their play caller in Gruden. Say what you want about Gruden as a head coach, the guy is a good offensive play caller.
Making matters even worse is the Raiders are going up against a pretty good Broncos defense. Now you can't get too carried away with the numbers given who Denver has played, but you also can't ignore the fact that they are 3rd in the NFL right now giving up just 292.4 ypg. They also rank in the Top 10 in the NFL vs both the run and the pass.
I can assure you that the Broncos will not in the least bit feel bad about beating up on the Raiders when they are down. These two teams despise each other.
I'm not wild about the Denver offense, but I would much rather have the Broncos offense than the Raiders defense. Denver should do more than enough to get the win and cover at home. Give me the Broncos -3.5!
|10-17-21||Cardinals v. Browns -2.5||Top||37-14||Loss||-120||102 h 18 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5)
I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league.
They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback.
I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I
I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home.
I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league.
I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5!
|10-17-21||Vikings v. Panthers +1||34-28||Loss||-100||95 h 47 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER (Panthers +1)
I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point home dog against the Minnesota Vikings. I think we are seeing some value with Carolina, as I think they should be -2.5 at home. Big reason I think we are getting value with the Panthers is last week's horrific 2nd half against the Eagles.
Carolina couldn't have looked any better in the 1st half of that game. If they just have a little bit of ball skills on that fumble they botched in the end zone, they probably win that game and cover. Instead it was just a safety and the offense fell apart in the 2nd half.
I think losing that game and Sam Darnold kind of reverting back to his old ways with the Jets has really reversed how people view this team. They no longer see them as a legit playoff contender.
I think that's a mistake and I think the Panthers respond in a big way. I really don't have a lot of concerns with the Carolina defense. They did their part once again, holding the Eagles to just 273 total yards and dominating the time of possession by more than 10 minutes.
Offensively, Darnold isn't as bad as what he showed in the 2nd half of that game against the Eagles and let's not forget the Panthers offense was without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. He was close to returning for that game and as long as there are no setbacks in practice, he will be on the field Sunday.
As for the Vikings, I just don't think there as good as what people think. Sure they have had a couple close games not go their way, but the fact of the matter is this team continues to find ways to lose games. They needed a last second field goal after blowing a 16-6 lead in the final 5 minutes against the winless Lions at home. That comes after a week where the offense couldn't do anything at home against the Browns.
Vikings are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a home win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a close win by 6 points or less. Panthers have covered 10 of their last 15 with a line of +3 to -3 and are 5-1 ATS last 3 years off a upset loss as a home favorite. Give me Carolina +1!
|10-17-21||Packers -4 v. Bears||24-14||Win||100||87 h 51 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Big Money VEGAS INSIDER (Packers -4)
I can't help myself here but to lay the 4-points on the road with the Packers. I know it's not wise to lay points on the road in division games, but I just don't see these two teams being anywhere close in terms of talent.
I could be dead wrong here, but I got a pretty good feeling that the Bears holding the Raiders to just 9 points and 252 total yards last week was more a result of the news surrounding Gruden than it was this Chicago defense.
I also think with the Bears defense, they are much better suited to stop teams that want to run the ball. They just don't have that great of talent in the secondary and are tasked in this game with going up against one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers.
I know Green Bay isn't exactly blowing teams out, but I've really liked what I've seen out of Aaron Rodgers early on. He looks to be 100% locked in and when he's going well this team is tough to beat.
You also have to factor in just how bad this Bears offense has been since Justin Fields became the starter. It's a bit comical how scared Chicago is of letting Fields throw the ball. How in the world is he going to do enough here to keep pace with Rodgers and that Packers offense? I don't see it. Give me Green Bay -4!
|10-16-21||Arizona State v. Utah +1||21-35||Win||100||80 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah +1)
I'll grab the +1 with the Utah Utes at home against the Arizona State Sun Devils. I think the line here tells you everything you need to know. You have the No. 18 ranked team in the country in Arizona State the smallest of favorites and even a pick'em at a lot of books against an unranked Utes team that has gotten off to a disappointing 3-2 start.
I just think a lot of people wrote this Utah team off after their 1-2 start, which saw them lose back-to-back non-conference games on the road against BYU and San Diego State. At that same time they also had Baylor transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer up and leave the program.
It's hard to explain why things didn't work with Brewer, but this Utah team has looked like the team we expected to see to start the season since he left. They got back on track with a 24-13 win at home against Washington State and then went on the road and rolled USC 42-26. Their first every win inside the Coliseum in LA.
Backup quarterback Cameron Rising, had a breakout showing in that win over the Trojans, throwing for 306 yards and 3 scores, while also rushing for 27 yards and a score. He's a kid that plays with a ton of energy and passion. I think it's really lit a fire under this team. It wasn't just the offense, the defense really played one of their better games.
I also think people overlook the fact that while Utah's playoff hopes were thrown out the window with those two early losses, their goals of winning the Pac-12 title are well within reach and a win here would really put them in the drivers seat to win the South.
I'm also not as high as others on Arizona State. That's not to say I don't think the Sun Devils are a good team, I just feel like they are getting way too much respect on the road against a really good Utah team that has a ton of momentum working in their favor.
Speaking of Utah and momentum, the Utes are 10-1 ATS last 11 off a conference win and are 8-1 ATS last 9 off a conference win by 2 or more. ASU is also 2-5 ATS under Herm Edwards as a road favorite and their only two wins came last year in a pandemic season where there were no fans at games. Give me the Utes +1!
|10-16-21||NC State v. Boston College +3||33-7||Loss||-102||70 h 55 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3)
I'm going to take the field goal with Boston College at home against NC State. I know the Wolfpack are the No. 22 ranked team in the country and the Eagles aren't in the Top 25, but I do not think NC State should be favored on the road in this matchup.
I think the Wolfpack are simply overrated because of their 27-21 2OT win at home against Clemson a few weeks ago. A great win, but let's not overlook how much the Tigers struggled. At the same time, BC went on the road and only lost 13-19 at Clemson and they had the ball inside Tigers territory twice in the final minutes, including a 1st & 10 on the Clemson 11 with 53 seconds to play (fumbled two plays later to end the game).
The other thing with BC is I think they get knocked a little because they are down starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The thing is, senior backup Dennis Grosel has been more than serviceable in his absence. In his last start, against Clemson, he threw for 311 yards with BC offering no threat of a run game (46 yards on 34 attempts).
Another thing with NC State that you need to take note of is they have played 4 of their first 5 at home. The only true road game they have played was at Mississippi State back in early September and they lost that game 10-24 as a 2-point road favorite. Wolfpack are just 18-36 ATS last 54 as a road favorite and are 2-12 ATS last 14 as a road favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the Eagles +3!
|10-16-21||Alabama v. Mississippi State +17.5||49-9||Loss||-120||69 h 0 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Alabama/Miss St SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Mississippi State +17.5)
Most aren't going to think twice about laying the points with Alabama. Anytime the Crimson Tide lose, the first thing that comes to mind is there's no way they are going to lose two in a row. Chances are they won't, but the books know this kind of thought process and will inflate the line to create some massive value with the other side.
There's not a lot of negatives you can say about the Alabama offense, but this is far from the Crimson Tide defense that we expected to see this year. At least to this point. Alabama is giving up 22 ppg. Nothing to be ashamed of for most teams, but they haven't allowed more than 20 ppg in a season since Nick Saban's first year on the job back in 2007.
That defense has arguably been at it's worst in Alabama's two road games, where they gave up 29 points and over 400 total yards to Florida and the 41 points last week to a Texas A&M team that looked lost offensively this year.
I feel pretty good about Mississippi State being able to move the ball. The Bulldogs are only scoring 27.8 ppg, but are putting up 429 ypg, which isn't too far off from the 472 ypg that Alabama averages.
I also think the Bulldogs are sound enough defensively to at least make Alabama work for what they get offensively. Not only are they talented, but the energy in Davis Wade Stadium for a night game is going to only help the defense.
The other thing to keep in mind, is that while Alabama may seem invincible to letdowns, this is far from an easy spot for them. They just put everything they had into their last two games against Ole Miss and and Texas A&M. It's not going to be as easy as most think for them to play their best in this spot. Give me Mississippi State +17.5!
|10-16-21||Oklahoma State v. Texas -4.5||32-24||Loss||-110||62 h 3 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texas -4.5)
Most will hesitate to lay the points with Texas coming off that big collapse against Oklahoma last week. No question that loss isn't going to sit well, but I don't think an undefeated Oklahoma State team is the kind of opponent that will result in a letdown. This is a massive game for both teams in terms of making that Big 12 title game.
The other big thing for me, is I'm not buying the stock in this Oklahoma State team. This is by far the best team they will have faced this year as their five wins have come against Missouri St, Tulsa, Boise State, Kansas State and Baylor.
None of those teams are even close to being on the same level offensively as this Longhorns team. So while the defensive numbers look great for the Cowboys, I don't think they are going to be able to slow down this Texas offense, especially on the road. Keep in mind last year, the Longhorns hung 41 on the road in a 7-point win at Oklahoma State.
As for the Cowboys offense, there's nothing that really impresses me with what they do. Despite the easy schedule they have played, they only come in averaging 25.4 ppg and 305.2 ypg. So while Texas' defense has struggled at times, this is an offense they should perform well against. Give me the Longhorns -4.5!
|10-16-21||Texas A&M -8.5 v. Missouri||35-14||Win||100||62 h 2 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Texas A&M -8.5)
I think the overwhelming perception with Texas A&M coming off that huge upset against Alabama is they are primed for a letdown. I get the thought process, but I'm not sure it's as big a concern given the spread and the opponent.
It would be one thing if the books were asking the Aggies to cover more than two TDs, which I think they should be, but they aren't all we need is for Texas A&M to win by a TD and FG.
I also would be a lot more worried if the Aggies were playing a SEC team with some upside like Ole Miss, Arkansas or Kentucky, but instead they are playing a Missouri team that I believe is only better than Vanderbilt in the SEC.
I also think it's a perfect matchup for this Texas A&M offense that finally showed some life in their shocking win over Alabama. It was like a switch flipped for sophomore quarterback Zach Calzada in that game against the Crimson Tide. He went 21 of 31 for 285 yards and 3 scores. he had just 5 TD passes the previous 4 games, which saw him throw it 128 times.
I think it can be hard to jump on a performance like that when you have seen so much bad leading up, but it's something I'll take a shot on against this awful Missouri defense.
Not sure how much you have seen of this Tigers team, but they can't stop anything. Missouri is giving up 37.5 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. They are giving up 288 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run and allowing 8.2 passing yards per attempt. That's with the Tigers 3 toughest games being against Kentucky, Tennessee and BC.
I know the Missouri offense can score, but this is a very talented Texas A&M defense that hadn't allowed more than 26 points in a game before allowing 38 to Alabama. Mizzu aint even close to the Tide on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Aggies are going to win here along the lines of 37-20. Give me Texas A&M -8.5!
|10-16-21||Rutgers -2 v. Northwestern||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||63 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR (Rutgers -2)
I was dead wrong grabbing the points with Rutgers last week at home against Michigan State. As painful as that was to watch, it's not going to keep me from backing the Scarlet Knights at basically a pick'em on the road against Northwestern.
I just don't think the books have adjusted enough for how down the Wildcats are this year. Northwestern is just 2-3 thru their first 5 games. There only wins are against FCS foe Indiana State and an awful Ohio team. They got blown out at home by Michigan State, were lucky to only by 7 on the road vs Duke and got absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska 56-7 last time out.
As for Rutgers, this feels like a good buy low spot on them The excitement around this Scarlet Knights team has faded after 3 straight losses and back-to-back games where they didn't sniff a cover. This is a team that started 3-0 and covered their first 4, so there's been a lot of value betting them overall.
You also have to factor in just how brutal a stretch their last 3 games were. They went on the road to face Michigan, before returning home to host Ohio State and Michigan State. It looked to me like they were just out of gas in that game against the Spartans and it probably had a lot to do with their defense giving up 4 60+ yard TDs in that game.
I think they bounce back in a big way here against a Northwestern team that has struggled to score and aren't any good defensively. Wildcats are giving up only 27.2 ppg, but that's skewed big time by the 6 points they allowed in their games against Indiana State and Ohio. They gave up 326 on the ground to the Spartans, 208 to Duke (had 350 passing) and 427 to Nebraska.
Rutgers has covered all 3 games where they have rushed for 150 or more yards. Scarlet Knights have also been a road covering machine here of late. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons. Give me Rutgers -2!
|10-15-21||Marshall v. North Texas +11||Top||49-21||Loss||-105||46 h 43 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (North Texas +11)
I really like the value we are getting with the Mean Green as a double-digit home dog against Marshall. Even though Marshall is just 1-3 in their last 4 games, they are going to get the money in this matchup. A lot of that being the fact that North Texas comes in just 1-4 with their only win coming in their opener against Northwestern St.
What they overlook is the brutal schedule that the Mean Green have been up against to this point. Their other 4 games have come against SMU, UAB, La Tech and Missouri. The only one of those at home was against UAB.
The other big thing that I believe has North Texas undervalued is they just recently made the full move to junior quarterback Austin Aune after splitting reps between Aune and fellow junior Jace Ruder. Don't get me wrong, neither is all that great, but Aune at least takes care of the ball. He has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio, where Ruder had a 3/5 ratio.
Aune also seemed to play better as the main guy in that game, as he threw for 305 yards and 4 scores. Also rushed for 59 yards on 15 attempts.
Another with Marshall and why they get some love, they got pretty good offensive numbers. Thundering Herd are scoring 34.8 ppg and averaging 515 ypg. As good as they might be, starting quarterback Grant Wells doesn't take care of the ball. He's got a 8/9 TD/INT ratio and if you only look at games vs FBS teams that ratio is 5/8. In his 3 road starts this season he has just 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions. Give me North Texas +11!
|10-10-21||Bills v. Chiefs -2.5||Top||38-20||Loss||-115||100 h 49 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Bills/Chiefs SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -2.5)
I can't believe we are getting the Chiefs at less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I know there's a lot of people concerned with what they have seen out of KC so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As bad as the defense has been and it's been downright awful, the Chiefs are a couple plays away from being 4-0 and it's not like they have played a cupcake schedule.
That defense could be getting back one of their top pass rushers in Frank Clark and all signs point to linebacker Willie Gay making his first start after starting the season on IR with a toe injury. Gay is a guy that I think can really have an impact. Clark can too, but you never know what you are going to get from him. Gay has great sideline to sideline speed and should help a lot against the run. He's also the guy that was suppose to have the green dot on his helmet. No question there's been a lack of communication on that side without him.
I also think the defense has been so bad, it has people overlooking just how good the offense has been. KC has had the fewest amount of drives of any team in the league and are T-2nd in scoring at 33.5 ppg. It's only going to get better. They got 3 talented rookie offensive linemen and 5 all new starters on the o-line. That unit is going to just get better and better as they play more together. The Chiefs also added Josh Gordon. Not much has been made of this. Probably because no one thinks Gordon will last long, but he came in to the team in INCREDIBLE shape and has already formed a chemistry with Mahomes.
One last thing on the Bills. This Chiefs defense is built to play from ahead and are much better suited to defend the pass than they are the run. I'm not saying they are a great pass defense, but they can get some stops if teams try to attack them thru the air. All Buffalo wants to do is throw the football. I think it's why it's been a really tough matchup for them. Give me the Chiefs -2.5!
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||19-27||Win||100||95 h 40 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -1)
Not only is Denver a team that I think is overrated, I also feel like we are in a great buy low spot with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh might not be a playoff team, but they aren't as bad as what the media is making them out to be. There's clearly concern with Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but we know they got a defense that carry them if they just get a few kinks worked out.
I think Pittsburgh defense is going to dominate this game right from the start. It doesn't really matter to me if it's Bridgewater or Drew Lock. Denver is down big at wide receiver with KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy both on IR. Those were their two speed threats that could really stretch the defense.
They also are hurting on the o-line. Both starting guards are questionable to play. If that unit thought it was tough slowing down that Ravens pass rush, they are in big trouble here against T.J. Watt and the Steelers front.
The other big thing you have to keep in mind with this Steelers defense is they have faced 4 of the better QBs in the league in Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers.
The injuries are also starting to mount up on defense. The most recent being stud rookie corner Pat Surtain II, who left their last game with a chest injury. Denver's already without one of their top corners in Ronald Darby, as well as pass rusher Bradley Chubb and linebacker Josey Jewel. It's also worth noting that backup linebackers Andre Mintz and Baron Browning are both questionable. They already got 4 guys at linebacker on IR. They are really on thin ice at this position.
I'm not expecting a ton out of Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but they should benefit in this game from great field position. I think they do more than enough to win this game. Give me Pittsburgh -1!
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers -3.5||Top||21-18||Loss||-110||93 h 23 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Eagles/Panthers NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3.5)
I love the Panthers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Eagles. I've been on this Carolina team quite a bit early in the year and they have got off to a great start at 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. They did fail to cover last week on the road in a 28-36 loss to Dallas, but that's nothing to change how you view this Panthers team. I really think Carolina is a playoff team, especially with what they have done to sure up that secondary.
The Eagles aren't close to being a playoff team. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with their only win and cover coming in a Week 1 win over a bad Falcons team. Jalen Hurts has been impressive at times, but they get no production out of their backs and their weapons at receiver aren't great. The defense also has holes all over it.
Panthers have an elite defense and a much-improved offense under former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Would love it if McCaffrey played, but they don't need him to move the ball against this Eagles team. Give me Carolina -3.5!
|10-09-21||Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +1||32-29||Loss||-110||76 h 12 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1)
There's a lot here that makes me really like the Hokies as a slim 1-point home dog against the Fighting Irish. You got a Notre Dame team that's in a massive letdown spot after playing two massive games the last two weeks against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. They had that magical 4th quarter and were able to beat the Badgers 41-13 in a very misleading final and then lost 13-24 at home to Cincinnati.
That game against the Bearcats was huge, as it now creates a massive roadblock for Notre Dame to the playoffs. If Cincinnati now goes undefeated and they probably should, there's no way they are taking the Irish over the Bearcats and I see no scenario where both could be an option.
It's just not easy coming off two games as hyped up as Notre Dame's last two and play well when you just lost the last of those two. Not only that, they are playing a Virginia Tech team that has had two full weeks to get ready for this game coming off a bye. Throw in this being a night game in Blacksburg and the entire deck is really stacked against the Irish in this one. Give me the Hokies +1!
|10-09-21||TCU v. Texas Tech +2||Top||52-31||Loss||-110||76 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - TCU/TX Tech BIG 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Texas Tech +2)
I'm shocked we are getting the Red Raiders as a home dog in this game. I just think the thing with Texas Tech, is people can't get how bad this team looked a couple weeks ago at Texas out of their head. The Red Raiders were annihilated 70-35 in a game where nothing went their way.
You can't let that one game skew how you see a team. I was really impressed with how Tech responded from that ugly loss to the Longhorns by going on the road and beating a good West Virginia team 23-20.
You also have a night game in Lubbock, which I think adds even more to the home field edge for Texas Tech in this game.
As for TCU, I don't love them in this spot. The Horned Frogs just laid it all on the line at home against Texas last week and came up painfully short in a 27-32 loss.
I also want to point out I think some of the value with Texas Tech comes from an overreaction to the fact that they are down their starting quarterback Tyler Shough. It's not all that bad, as the Red Raiders have a pretty good backup in senior Henry Colombi. He had 324 yards and 3 TDs in relief of Shough in the loss to Texas and 266 last week against WVU. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the Red Raiders +2!
|10-09-21||East Carolina +10.5 v. Central Florida||Top||16-20||Win||100||75 h 54 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Vegas Line Mistake PLAY OF THE YEAR (East Carolina +10.5)
I think we are getting an absolute gift here with East Carolina as a 10.5-point dog against UCF. The Knights have no business being a double-digit favorite in this spot.
It's really been a disappointing start to the season for UCF. The Knights came into this season thinking they were good enough to dethrone Cincinnati in the AAC and play in a New Year's Six Bowl.
That's no longer the case. Not only because they have started 2-2, but their star quarterback, Dillon Gabriel is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Gabriel was injured on the final play in a 35-42 loss at Louisville. First game without him the Knights go on the road and lose 30-34 to Navy as a 15-point favorite. Keep in mind that's a Navy team that had lost 49-7 to Marshall and 23-3 to Air Force.
Backup Mikey Keene wasn't terrible, completing 16 of 26 for 178 yards and 2 scores against the Midshipmen, but there's a clear drop off at the most important position on the field.
I think it really puts this Knights team behind the 8-ball, because their defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone with a pulse. In their 3 games against FBS teams, they have allowed 31 to Boise, 42 to Louisville and 34 to Navy.
This ECU offense is no joke. The Pirates are averaging 32.2 ppg, 442 ypg and 6.2 yards/play, which becomes even more impressive when you consider the opponents they have played are only giving up on average 26.7 ppg, 387 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. This is a game the Pirates not only can cover, but I given them a legit shot here to win outright. Give me ECU +10.5!
|10-09-21||Wisconsin v. Illinois +10||24-0||Loss||-100||72 h 24 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational Letdown SHARP PLAY (Illinois +10)
I could be dead wrong here, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Fighting Illini as a double-digit home dog against Wisconsin. This is 100% a fade of the Badgers given what's taken place to this point.
Wisconsin came into this season as the team most thought would win the Big Ten West and had a shot at winning the conference and making the 4-team playoff. That's not how it's played out over the first 4 weeks. The Badgers are 1-3 with two home losses, both in conference play.
Their offense has been an absolute nightmare. Graham Mertz has been as big a disappointment as I can remember for a Big Ten QB. He might not be able to go and if they had a guy they thought could help them, he would have got a shot by now, which is why I got low expectations for junior Chase Wolf if he has to go.
That's just one injury Wisconsin is dealing with. The Badgers got a laundry list of guys who are questionable to play.
Hard to blowout teams on the road when you can't score and this Illinois defense hasn't been all that bad. Their biggest weakness is also stopping the pass, which is by far the weakness of that Wisconsin offense.
This is also the first true road game of the season for Wisconsin. Their only other game away from home was that neutral site showdown with Notre Dame at Soldier Field. Give me Illinois +10!
|10-09-21||Florida State +17.5 v. North Carolina||35-25||Win||100||73 h 33 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Public Money VEGAS ATS SHOCKER (FSU +17.5)
I'll take my chances with Florida State covering the 17.5-point spread against North Carolina on Saturday. I just think this is way too many points for the Seminoles to be catching in this spot. FSU finally got the monkey off their back last week and got their first win of the season. They beat Syracuse 33-30 on a last second field goal after they had blown a double-digit 4th quarter lead.
This will be the most confidence that the Seminoles have had going into a week of practice since their Week 1 game against Notre Dame.
One of the big decisions leading up to that game against the Orange was at quarterback. FSU decided to bench mistake prone McKenzie Milton with the dual threat Jordan Travis. While Travis only threw for 131 yards, he rushed for a team-high 113 yards, as the Seminoles put up 247 on the ground.
I like the matchup for FSU with Travis under center. One of the big things that killed UNC in their shocking 22-45 loss at Georgia Tech was they couldn't keep Yellow Jackets' QB Jeff Sims in check. Sims had 10 carries for 128 yards and 3 scores.
If FSU can get Travis and the run game going, it's going to help limit the possessions for UNC's Sam Howell, which in turns makes the amount of points we are getting more and more valuable.
Last year a really bad Seminoles team upset the Tar Heels 31-28 as a 13.5-point home dog. It's not out of the question they do it again. Give me FSU +17.5!
|10-09-21||Virginia v. Louisville -2.5||Top||34-33||Loss||-108||72 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Virginia/Louisville ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Louisville -2.5)
Some might be hesitant to lay the short number with Louisville coming off that crushing 34-37 OT loss at Wake Forest, but I love the Cardinals at this price. I've watched quite a bit of Virginia the last couple of weeks. I laid the short number at home against WF and paid the price, but didn't hesitate to go right back with them as a 6-point dog at Miami last week.
The big thing to note with playing them against Miami, is that was more a fade of the Hurricanes, who were going to be without starting QB King than it was a play on the Cavaliers.
I like Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong, but sometimes a great signal caller isn't enough. I think that's the case here. I think the Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC and it will be an absolute nightmare for them trying to contain one of the most underrated players in the country in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham.
The guy has completed 64% of his attempts for 1,307 yards and has a 7-2 TD/INT ratio. He's also rushed for 309 yards and 10 scores.
When you have a quarterback who is putting up those kind of numbers and that team isn't getting blown up by the media, it makes for a very underrated team.
If we can just get some stops from that Louisville defense, this could get ugly. Cardinals definitely are prepared for what they will see with Armstrong, as they have already faced two QBs who are better than him in Ole Miss' Matt Corral and UCF's Dillon Gabriel. Give me the Cardinals -2.5!
|10-09-21||Michigan State v. Rutgers +5||31-13||Loss||-105||73 h 21 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers +5)
I'm going to take the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as a 5-point home dog against the No. 11 ranked Michigan State Spartans. I think more times than not you can bank on an unranked team catching points against a ranked team, especially at home. I've watched both of these teams and I'm not so sure Rutgers shouldn't be favored here. I definitely don't think Sparty should be laying more than a field goal here.
You talked about this quite a bit earlier in the season when you gave out Rutgers as a short road dog at Syracuse. This is a much improved Rutgers team from what we have seen in past years. They brought back 21 starters and were heading into year two under head coach Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the Scarlet Knights.
I'm a big Schiano fan. He completely flipped this program his first go around in New Brunswick. In his last 7 seasons, Rutgers went 56-33 going to a bowl game in all but one of those years. Who knows where this program would be if he didn't leave to be the head coach of the TB Bucs back in 2012.
I think some people might be hesitant to play Rutgers here after just going up against two of the Big Ten powers in Michigan and Ohio State. They kept it close in a loss at the Wolverines, but were completely dominated in a 52-13 loss last week to Ohio State.
I would buy this being a letdown spot if they had pulled off the upset in one of those games, but this is a team that is still searching for their first conference win. I don't think they have any trouble here getting back up for an undefeated and ranked Spartans team.
I did go against Michigan State a few weeks ago with Miami and that play went up in flames with the Spartans winning 38-17. I definitely wasn't giving the Spartans the respect they deserve, but I also think I was way too high on the Hurricanes.
I just think we are far enough into the season, where people are buying into this Michigan State team. I'm just not one of them. The Spartans have played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far.
I also think we really learned a lot about just how good this Spartans team is in their home night game against Nebraska a few weeks ago. Michigan State managed to win that game 23-20, but were lucky to do so. The Cornhuskers outgained them 442-254. Spartans didn't have a single first down in the 2nd half or OT. If they don't get a 62-yard punt return for a TD late in the 4th quarter, they lose that game.
Nebraska was really able to shutdown Michigan State's star RB Kenneth Walker. He had just 61 yards on 19 attempts. I really think if you can limit him, this Spartans offense just doesn't have the playmakers on the outside to do a whole lot. A big reason why I think this Mich St team is in big trouble going forward.
Rutgers did give up 208 rushing yards to Ohio State last week, but a lot of that is there's just so many freak athletes you have to account for with the Buckeyes. Even with that poor showing, if you want to call it that, they are still giving up just 3.8 yards carry against teams that average 5.2 yards/carry.
I'm pretty confident here that Schiano and his staff will be able to put together a game plan to limit Walker and win this game rather comfortably Give me the Scarlet Knights +5!
|10-08-21||Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||3-52||Loss||-110||57 h 13 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Temple/Cincinnati AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Temple +29.5)
I absolutely love Temple catching 29.5 on the road against Temple Friday night. It's just a brutal spot for the Bearcats. Cincinnati just played it's two biggest games on their schedule the last two times out at Indiana and at Notre Dame (did have a bye between games). The bigger of the two being last week's 24-13 win over the Irish. On top of that, one of their toughest games left on the schedule is next week's home game vs UCF.
It's just going to be near impossible for the Bearcats to bring the kind of energy and effort needed to win in a blowout against a team they know they are much better than.
I think a flat Bearcats team will allow the Owls to keep this much closer than expected in the 1st half and by the time Cincinnati gets it in gear it won't be enough to cover the massive number. At the same time, if by chance the Bearcats come out swinging, the back door figures to be wide open.
Another thing that I think adds even more value here, is this isn't a bad Temple team and they are coming into this game with a lot of confidence after last week's 34-31 win over Memphis as a double-digit home dog.
I really think there defense is underrated. It doesn't look good giving up 30.2 ppg, but a lot of that has been them getting put in bad spots. The Owls are only giving up 313 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. I know the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, but it's worth noting that everyone thinks this Cincinnati defense is elite and they are giving up very similar numbers at 309 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. Give me the Owls +29.5!
|10-07-21||Rams -1.5 v. Seahawks||Top||26-17||Win||100||69 h 45 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Rams/Seahawks TNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -1.5)
I will take my chances here with the Rams laying less than a field goal on the road against the Seahawks. I played and lost with the Rams last week, as they got embarrassed on their home field by the Cardinals. Turns out the bounce back from that emotional win over the Bucs was a little tougher than anticipated.
I think there can be some value with teams the game after a letdown spot. Not only are we not going to get as inflated a number to bet into, we should also get a max effort from that team.
That's really the handicap for me here, because I don't think it's close in terms of talent when you look up and down the roster of these two teams. Seattle's got a great offense led by Russell Wilson, but their defense is as bad as it gets. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the Chiefs defense has been. Yet it's the Seahawks who are giving up a league worst 444.5 ypg.
A pretty staggering number when you consider they have exactly went up against an elite offense. Their 4 games have been against the Colts, Titans, Vikings and 49ers. Just to compare, the Chiefs have at least been bad against good offenses, as they have faced the Ravens, Browns, Chargers and Eagles.
I think it's pretty safe to say the Rams have an elite offense with Matthew Stafford and it's without question the best offense and quarterback Seattle will have seen so far this year.
I just don't see Wilson and that Seahawks offense being able to go score for score with Stafford and the Rams in this one. Give me the Rams -1.5!
|10-07-21||Houston v. Tulane +6||40-22||Loss||-109||29 h 41 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Thursday Night ATS MONEY-MAKER (Tulane +6)
I'll go opposite of the public and grab the 6-points at home with Tulane on Thursday. Public has been coming in heavy on Houston in this one and the line hasn't really moved off of 6. That tells me the books are fine with needing the Green Wave in this one.
Houston comes into this game 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season. They have won 4 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech, covering in 3 of the last 4.
What gets overlooked is the schedule the Cougars have played to this point. One of my favorite strength of schedule rankings has it 119th out of 130. That's a bad Navy team they barely scraped by against at home 28-20 and don't be fooled by last weeks' 45-10 thrashing of Tulsa. That's not a very good Golden Hurricanes team.
*Note that game against Tulsa was a weekday game last week and a lot of people were on Houston as a short road dog. Hard to keep covering as a big public team, because the books just keep inflating the number.
Tulane is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, having failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Thing with the Green Wave is their schedule has been one of the toughest (19th toughest). They have played true road games at Oklahoma and Ole Miss, as well as a home game against a good UAB team and a road game against a up and coming East Carolina squad.
I just think it has Tulane way undervalued here and I love them in this spot. The Green Wave have their backs full against the wall. They desperately need a win here to have any shot at making a bowl.
I also think you got to bump up the home field edge in these weekday games. While it only seats 30,000, you can bet Yulman Stadium will be up for this prime time action.
I'll take the points as insurance, but I got a good feeling here that the Green Wave win this game outright. Play Tulane +6!
|10-03-21||Ravens +1 v. Broncos||23-7||Win||100||99 h 9 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Situational No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens +1)
I will gladly take my chances with the Ravens as a road dog against the Broncos. Baltimore was laying more than a field goal in this game before the season started and has completely flipped to the other side, where Denver is a slim 1-point favorite.
I'll be the first two admit last week's bet against the Broncos with the Jets was terrible. However, I don't think my mistake was undervaluing Denver. I just put too much faith into that Jets offense.
Think about this, the Broncos 3 games this season have seen their defense have to defend Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Now they have to face one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Lamar Jackson.
Now I know the Ravens weren't exactly world beaters last week in their crazy 19-17 win over the Lions, where they won the game on a record-setting field goal at the buzzer. However, that was a spot where you would expect Baltimore to not have their best coming off an emotional and thrilling 36-35 win over the Chiefs on SNF the week before.
The Broncos being undefeated will more than be enough to get the attention of Baltimore in this game.
Not only do I think Denver is a bit overvalued because of their schedule, but the injuries are starting to pile up. Two of their top options at receiver on IR with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. They also could be down both starting offensive guards with Glasgow doubtful and Risner questionable. Defensively they have 3 more key guys on IR in linebackers Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell and corner Ronald Darby. Give me the Ravens +1!
|10-03-21||Steelers +6.5 v. Packers||Top||17-27||Loss||-108||66 h 7 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Steelers +6.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Pittsburgh catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Packers. Everyone has written off the Steelers after back-to-back ugly home losses to the Raiders and Bengals. It's almost like their Week 1 23-16 win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point dog doesn't exist.
There's not many teams I feel better about backing with their backs against the wall as a dog than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-22 ATS when listed as an underdog since Tomlin took over as head coach and are 28-17 ATS when they are a road dog. Steelers are also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a loss by 10 or more to a division rival.
Aside from how good Pittsburgh has been in this spot historically, I also think this is a good spot here to bet against Green Bay off their thrilling win at San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 3.
I'm also not completely sold on this Packers offense. They have not ran the ball well at all, 80 ypg and just 3.4 yards/carry and have not had more than 255 yards passing in any game. I also think you got to keep in mind they just played two awful secondaries in Detroit and San Francisco.
This Steelers defense is no joke and are starting to get back to full strength on that side of the ball. I think their ability to defend the pass and put pressure on the QB is going to be huge in this game. I also think they will be able to slow down the Rodgers to Adams connection. Much like we saw in Week 1, when the Saints held Adams to just 5 catches for 56 yards.
Adding to this, Pittsburgh is 68-33 (67.3%) ATS last 101 times they have faced a team that averages more than 7 passing yards/attempt. Give me the Steelers +6.5!
|10-03-21||Cardinals v. Rams -4||37-20||Loss||-110||66 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Rams -4)
I might be walking right into a trap here with the Rams, but there's just no scenario right now that I'm not laying a mere 4-points with LA at home. I definitely think the Cardinals coming into at 3-0 is giving us value. At the same time, I think the public perception is that the Rams are going to come out flat after their huge win over the Bucs.
I just think all the talk about how the Rams won't play well after their big win against Brady and Tampa Bay, is going to have them locked in. I think it also helps that LA is at home and this is a division game. It's no secret how good the NFC West is this year. I just don't see the Rams not showing up with their best effort on Sunday.
The biggest thing here for me is I don't see how this Arizona defense is going to be able to slow down Matthew Stafford and this Rams offense. LA is averaging 31.7 ppg, 388 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. Keep in mind McVay and the Rams owned the Cardinals when Goff was their quarterback.
Kyler Murray on the other hand has had an awful time when matched up with this Rams defense. Murray has started 4 games against LA since coming into the league and the Cardinals are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in those game. The Rams have won those contests by an average scored of 30.2 to 16.5. Murray is averaging just 187 passing yards/game with a mere 5-4 TD-INT ratio. Give me the Rams -4!
|10-03-21||Titans v. Jets +7||24-27||Win||100||63 h 47 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Jets +7)
I know it's asking a lot to put your hard earned money on a team like the Jets, but I just feel like there's just too much value on New York to pass up. This comes from the guy who bet the Jets a +10.5 last week at Denver in a game they lost 26-0 with just 162 total yards of offense. It's just how the NFL works.
What it's done is really create a buy low spot on the Jets at home against a mediocre at best Titans team.
Let's start off with Tennessee. They come in 2-1, but could and should be 1-2. They got absolutely embarrassed in their opener at home by the Cardinals 13-38. They then somehow beat the Seahawks on the road 33-30 after railing 16-30 in the 4th quarter. I also don't think there's anything to get excited about with last week's 25-16 win over a Colts team that hasn't won a game.
The other big thing working against the Titans is injuries. We know for sure they won't have top wide out A.J. Brown and there's a chance they won't have Julio Jones. Running back Derrick Henry is the only other Tennessee player with more than 100 yards receiving.
Say what you want about the talent the Jets have on defense, they are playing really hard on that side of the ball and if there's a strength for New York on that side of the ball it's stopping the run. I really think they are going to be able to load the box here and keep Henry in check, which in turn makes you wonder how this Titans team is going to score.
Tennessee also has all kinds of guys out on defense and they have not looked good on that side of the ball. I know Zach Wilson has struggled and is playing behind a horrible o-line, but this is a defense he can have some success against.
It might not be pretty, but I really like the Jets to find a way to keep this within a touchdown at home on Sunday. Give me New York +7!
|10-03-21||Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys||28-36||Loss||-110||63 h 45 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers +4.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4.5-point dog at Dallas on Sunday. It's no secret that the Cowboys are a huge public team. Every amatuer player out there is going to be running to the ticket window to lay the short number with Dallas in this one, especially after just watching them blowout the Eagles at home on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Cowboys against a vastly improved Panthers team that comes in at 3-0. One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is the huge rest edge that Carolina has. The Panthers are playing an extra 3 days of rest compared to normal after playing on TNF last week. Dallas on the other hand is playing on 1 less day of rest after playing on MNF.
On top of the rest, you also have to factor in the massive edge in coaching Carolina has with Rhule compared to McCarthy.
I think the big thing here for a lot of people is they just don't see a world in which the Panthers can go score for score with Dallas. I don't think the Panthers have to score a ton to cover or even win this game.
The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league that has excelled against both the run and the pass. They are giving up just 2.6 yards/carry, a mere 146 passing yards/game and lead the league with 14 sacks.
It also wouldn't shock me if Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense didn't have a big game in this one. I get the Cowboys are improved defensively, but a lot of that has been their offense playing ball control, something that won't be as easy in this game. Darnold looks like a completely different QB than what we saw with the Jets. I could definitely see him having a big game. Give me the Panthers +4.5!
|10-03-21||Chiefs -7 v. Eagles||42-30||Win||100||63 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Big Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -7)
I know the Chiefs haven't been able to cover the spread, but I'm willing to go down swinging with Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City team in this spot. It's hard to believe we are even talking about a must-win game in Week 4 with the Chiefs, but with KC sitting at 1-2 they desperately need to win this game.
I know the defense has been bad for Kansas City, but as bad as it's been they could still be sitting at 3-0 right now. You also have to keep in mind who the Chiefs have played the first 3 weeks. They have faced 3 of the best offensive teams in the league in the Browns, Ravens and Chargers. The drop off from facing Mayfield, Jackson and Herbert to Hurts is massive.
The only team the Eagles have had any kind of success against in their first 3 games is the Falcons. They scored just 11 points at home against the 49ers and 14 of their 21 against the Cowboys came after that game was well out of reach.
On the flip side of this, the Eagles just gave up 41 points to the Cowboys with Mike McCarthy doing everything in his power to hold Dallas back. I see no scenario here with Philly holds Mahomes and this Chiefs offense under 30 points and that means they got to score at least 23 here to push at this number.
Everyone has been waiting for Kansas City to have that dominating win and I think this is the week they deliver. Give me the Chiefs -7!
|10-03-21||Giants +7.5 v. Saints||Top||27-21||Win||100||63 h 45 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - NFC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR (Giants +7.5)
I absolutely love the Giants as a 7.5-point road dog against the Saints on Sunday. You got everyone wanting to lay the big number here with the Saints in their first game back home and yet we have seen this line drop in favor of the Giants. The smart money is on New York and for good reason.
I'm just not buying into the hype with New Orleans. They have been all over the place in their first 3 games. They shocked everyone by embarrassing the Packers in Week 1 playing keep away from Aaron Rodgers, they then get beat badly on the road at Carolina and last week take down Belichick and the Pats 28-13.
I get a win is a win, but you can't ignore the fact that the Saints were outgained in that game by New England 300-252.
I just don't trust Jameis Winston. He's got an impressive 7-2 TD-INT ratio, but has yet to throw for more than 150 yards in a game this season. Asking a team to cover a 7.5-point spread that has this much trouble moving the ball thru the air is a lot.
On the flip side of this, the Giants aren't as bad as their 0-3 record. Everyone talks like they this awful team, yet they are only getting outgained by 24 ypg. The Saints are getting outgained by 70 ypg.
Daniel Jones has also been a covering machine in this spot, going 8-3 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career. I know a lot of the games for Winston came with the Bucs, but it's worth noting that he's just 7-14 ATS as a starter when his team is favored and just 4-12 when his team is laying points at home. This has all the makings of one of those games the Giants don't just cover but win outright. Give me New York +7.5!
|10-02-21||Fresno State -10 v. Hawaii||24-27||Loss||-120||71 h 40 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Fresno St -10)
I will gladly lay just 10-points on the road with Fresno State as they make the trip overseas to play Hawaii. It's never easy playing the Rainbow Warriors on the road, but I don't think the long trip is going to be enough to keep the Bulldogs from winning here by at least double-digits.
Everyone is talking about BYU and Cincinnati as the two best non Power 5 teams this year, but I'm not so sure that's the case. Worst case Fresno State deserves to be in the conversation with what they have done. The Bulldogs went on the road and gave a really good Oregon team all they could handle in a 24-31 loss and later went on the road and beat a great UCLA team 40-37 as a 10.5-point dog.
I know they laid an egg and only beat a bad UNLV team 38-30 last week and were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game. I just think that was a huge letdown spot for Fresno State off their big win over UCLA.
I can't imagine head coach Kalen Deboer was thrilled in the slightest with how his team played against UNLV. After a tough week of practice, I think the Bulldogs come out here locked in from the start and if that's the case I don't think Hawaii has much of a shot of keeping this close. Keep in mind we have already seen the Rainbow Warriors lost 44-10 at UCLA and 45-27 at Oregon State. They also scored just 13 points at home against San Jose State. Give me Fresno State -10!
|10-02-21||Arizona State v. UCLA -3||42-23||Loss||-115||82 h 38 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (UCLA -3)
I really like what I've seen out of this UCLA team this year. The Bruins are off to a 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS start with their only loss coming in a crazy 37-40 loss at home to a really good Fresno State team. UCLA crushed Hawaii 44-10 as a 17.5-point favorite, beat LSU at home 38-27 as a 2-point dog and took down Stanford on the road 35-24 as a 4-point favorite last week.
Arizona State is also 3-1, but have not been nearly as impressive. The Sun Devils didn't cover in their opener as a 45-point favorite against Southern Utah, winning 41-14. They then only beat UNLV 37-10 as a 35-point favorite and lose outright 17-27 as a 3.5-point favorite at BYU. They got their first cover of the season last week in a 35-13 win over Colorado. I know the Buffs had that near upset of Texas A&M, but they also lost to Minnesota 30-0 and we just watched the Gophers follow up that win with an outright loss at home to Bowling Green as a 30-point favorite.
There's no denying that the Sun Devils have a great young talent at quarterback in Jayden Daniels, but he just doesn't have the playmakers at running back or receiver for this offense to really take off. Nothing speaks more to that than the fact that Daniels has just 2 TD passes in 4 games, especially when you look at who they have played.
I just don't think Daniels and that Arizona State offense has the goods to keep up with UCLA's high-powered offense on the road. This line suggest these two would be a pick'em on a neutral site and that's just not close given what I've seen. This is the year to buy stock in Chip Kelly and the Bruins. Give me UCLA -3!
|10-02-21||Washington v. Oregon State -2||Top||24-27||Win||100||69 h 35 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Oregon St -2)
I will gladly take my chances with Oregon State laying less than a field goal at home against Washington. Who would have thought the Huskies would be an underdog on the road against the Beavers this early in the season. However, watching these two teams play, I not only think Oregon State should be favored, but I feel like we are getting quite the discount on the home team in this one.
I get the Huskies have kinda right the ship after starting the season 0-2 with a shocking 7-13 loss at home to Montana as a 22.5-point favorite and getting steamrolled on the road by Michigan 10-31 as a 6.5-point dog. They have since crushed Arkansas State 52-3 as 17.5-point favorite and knocked off Cal 31-24 in a failed cover as a 7.5-point favorite.
Biggest thing to keep in mind is that Arkansas State program is way down this year. They are 1-3 with their only win coming against a FCS team (their head coach and QB both left for Utah State). Cal is also 1-3 with their only win coming against a FCS team.
This Washington offense does nothing to get you excited and the defense isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. Huskies are only giving up 17.8 ppg and 336 ypg, but we saw them give up 31 to Michigan, who looked pedestrian in their latest game against Rutgers. The Wolverines rushed for 343 yards against Washington. Cal had over 450 yards, as they rushed for 138 and threw for 319. Golden Bears outgained the Huskies 457 to 326.
As for Oregon State, it's all really been building up to this season for them. They are now in the 4th year under head coach Jonathan Smith, who has really transformed that offense. The Beavers come in averaging 38.3 ppg and 474 ypg and that's against teams who on average are giving up 30.7 ppg and just 376 ypg. Chance Nolan is playing exceptional football at quarterback. He's completed 72.3% of his attempts for 847 yards and a 9-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also averaging 7.2 yards/carry on the ground. Just a tick better than their lead back B.J. Tayler, who has 422 yards and 7 TDs with a 6.9 ypc.
The defense has really been the unit that has held the Beavers back in Smith's first 3 years. They are far from great on that side of the ball, but they definitely looked improved. Their run defense has been phenomenal, as they are allowing just 90 ypg and 3 yards/carry. They haven't allowed more than 30 points and have played road games at both Purdue and USC. This is a plus matchup against this putrid Washington offense and the defense should feed off what figures to be an electric crowd. Give me the Beavers -2!
|10-02-21||Northwestern v. Nebraska -11.5||7-56||Win||100||68 h 28 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Nebraska -11.5)
I will take my chances with the Cornhuskers laying less than two touchdowns at home against Northwestern on Saturday. I think a lot of people, including myself, wrote off this Nebraska team after they opened the season with that ugly 22-30 loss at Illinois in Week Zero.
That game is looking more and more like a fluke with how well the Cornhuskers have played in the games following. Nebraska took care of business against both Fordham (52-7) and Buffalo (28-3) at home. Then they nearly knocked off Oklahoma in a 16-23 loss as a 22.5-point favorite. They then lost in OT at Michigan State 20-23 in a game they should have won. This team is a lot closer to being 5-0 than people think.
On the flip side of this, I think you could make a pretty strong argument that Northwestern is the worst team in the Big Ten this year. The Wildcats lost by 17 at home to Michigan State in their opener, giving up 326 rushing yards to the Spartans. They also lost 23-30 at Duke, where the Blue Devils had over 550 yards of total offense. Northwestern's two wins have come against Indiana State and Ohio at home, which isn't saying much.
I would be shocked here if Nebraska didn't have more than 500 yards of offense in this game and if you have been watching this Cornhuskers team closely, their defense has really been playing well. I just don't see how the Wildcats keep this close. I would be shocked if Nebraska doesn't win this game by at least 3 scores. Give me the Cornhuskers -11.5!
|10-02-21||Mississippi State +7.5 v. Texas A&M||26-22||Win||100||67 h 56 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS MONEYMAKER (Mississippi St +7.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Mississippi State catching 7.5 on the road against Texas A&M. I just don't know what Texas A&M has done to warrant being this big of a favorite against a quality team like the Bulldogs.
It to me just feels like the Aggies are still being overvalued based on how good everyone thought they were going to be this year. There were all kinds of people talking about Texas A&M being good enough to dethrone Alabama in the SEC West.
They just got their first real test of the season and failed, losing 10-20 to Arkansas in a neutral site game at Jerry's World. It really wasn't that close, as the Razorbacks outgained the Aggies 443 to 272.
Texas A&M is really lucky they are 2-2 and completely out of it, as they need a late TD in the 4th quarter to sneak out a 10-7 win against Colorado. A game where they had just 288 total yards.
So that's two games against Power 5 teams, where the offense hasn't scored more than 10 points or gained more than 300 yards.
Let's also not overlook at what Colorado has done since nearly beating the Aggies. The very next week the Buffaloes lost 0-30 at home to Minnesota, who we just saw lose outright as a 30-point favorite to Bowling Green. They followed that up with a 13-35 loss at Arizona State and that Sun Devils team hasn't looked anything like what we thought.
I get Mississippi State isn't a real threat in the SEC West, but I do feel like Mike Leach has this team headed in the right direction. I was on them and lost last week in their 25-28 loss to LSU. While the Bulldogs never really had a shot to win that game, they did outgain the Tigers 486 to 343 and if anything I feel like it's created a buy low spot on them.
Keep in mind Mississippi State has that impressive 24-10 win at home over NC State, who we just saw upset Clemson and were robbed by the refs in a 29-31 loss at Memphis in a massive sandwich spot between that game with the Wolfpack and Tigers. Would not surprise me at all if the Bulldogs won this outright. Give me Mississippi State +7.5!
|10-02-21||Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5||14-24||Win||100||67 h 30 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER (Oklahoma State -3.5)
I'll be the first two admit that I didn't think this Oklahoma State team was going to be any good in 2021, but here we are a month into the season and the Cowboys are sitting 4-0 and have covered in each of their last two games.
My big concern with Oklahoma State was the offense and my lack of trust with quarterback Spencer Sanders. While I'm not ready to make Sanders a Heisman contender, he couldn't have played much better than he did last week at home against K-State, throwing for 344 yards and 2 scores against a really good Wildcats defense.
I think the Cowboys are a team that is playing with a ton of confidence right now and with a bye week on deck before they have to go on the road to face Texas and ISU, there's no reason for Oklahoma State to not be 100% invested in this game against Baylor, especially with this being a night game at Boone Pickens Stadium.
On the flip side of this, I think this is a good spot to sell high on the Bears. Baylor is coming off a huge 31-29 upset win at home over then No. 14 Iowa State. A game they really had no business winning when you look at the box score, as the Cyclones had a 479 to 282 edge in total yards. I just think it's going to be tough for Baylor to come out with same kind of energy they had in that game at home against ISU. I just don't trust that offense on the road against a good Oklahoma State defense.
Big overreaction in my opinion with the line, as we see Baylor go from being a 7-point home dog to a mere 3.5-point road dog against what I think is a very similar opponent in terms of talent. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5!
|10-02-21||UNLV v. UTSA -21||17-24||Loss||-110||65 h 27 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Situational ATS MASSACRE (UTSA -21)
I think we are getting quite the discount here with UTSA as a mere 21-point home favorite against a bad UNLV team. The value here stems from the fact that the Rebels are coming off a near shocking upset at Fresno State, where they only lost 30-38 as a 30-point dog and they had a 30-29 lead in the 4th quarter of that game.
I just think given what we had seen out of UNLV in their first 3 games, you can really just pinpoint that near upset to the Bulldogs not playing up to their potential. Fresno State was coming off that huge 40-37 upset win over UCLA the week before and it just looked like they were sleepwalking for the 1st half of that game. Keep in mind UNLV jumped out to 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter and were outscored 38-16 the rest of the way.
As for UTSA, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people think. They come into this game 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. I know Illinois is not a great Power 5 program, but they beat them on the road early in the year and they just knocked off Memphis 31-28 on the road.
I was really impressed with that win over the Tigers, as they fell behind 21-0 less than 8 minutes into the 1st quarter and went on to outscore Memphis 31-7 the rest of the way, winning the game on a last second field goal.
UTSA is averaging 37.3 ppg and 444 ypg and are facing a UNLV defense that is giving up 39.5 ppg, 472 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. The Roadrunners are also giving up just 17.8 ppg and 285 ypg and prior to their good showing against Fresno, the Rebels had scored just 13 points on 285 total yards in their previous 2 games vs Arizona St and Iowa State. I really don't think this game will be close. Give me UTSA -21!
|10-02-21||Florida v. Kentucky +8.5||Top||13-20||Win||100||66 h 57 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +8.5)
I love Kentucky catching 8.5-points at home against the Gators. Even though Kentucky comes in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, everyone is going to lay the points with Florida in this game. It all stems from how well the Gators played at home against Alabama, losing by a score of just 29-31 as a 14-point favorite. They also followed up that great showing with a win and cover against Tennessee, beating the Vols 38-14 as a 19-point favorite.
The public is going to just assume this team is going to keep covering, but this is a bit of a letdown spot for them. Playing so well against Alabama and then getting the Vols at home under the lights last week. Now they go on the road against a Kentucky team they have owned.
Florida hasn't lost at Kentucky since 1986. A streak that I think it's major jeopardy. This might be the best team Mark Stoops has had in Lexington. As has been the case for the last few years, Kentucky is really strong on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front. Wildcats are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry vs the run, holding teams 1.1 yards/carry under their season average. It's no secret that to have success against Florida, you got to stop the run.
I know the Wildcats only scored 16 last week at South Carolina, but this is as balanced as Kentucky has been offensively in years. They got a legit weapon at wide receiver in Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson. He's got 25 catches for 402 yards. Kentucky leading receiver in all of 2020 was Josh Ali at 473 yards.
I also think that while Florida isn't a bad defensive team, they aren't nearly as good on that side as they were a year ago. They just gave up 148 yards on the ground and 275 thru the air to Tennessee.
Add in this being their first real road test (only other road game was at USF) and the energy that the Wildcats are going to get from playing in front of a rowdy home crowd under the lights and we got an upset in the making. Give me Kentucky +8.5!
|10-02-21||Ole Miss +14.5 v. Alabama||21-42||Loss||-115||75 h 39 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Ole Miss/Alabama SEC NO-BRAINER (Ole Miss +14.5)
I got no problem taking my chances with Ole Miss as a 14.5-point road dog at Alabama. I just think the Crimson Tide have no business laying more than two touchdowns in this game. While I think it's not as strong as it was coming into the season, there's still quite a few people who think this Alabama team is a step above the rest of college football.
Because of that, we are seeing the Crimson Tide asked to lay ridiculous numbers like this against really good teams. Just a couple of weeks ago they closed as a 14-point favorite at Florida, much higher than that in the days leading up to the game, and barely walked out of Gainesville with a 31-29 win.
I know there's a lot of hype with that Gator team and they are ranked ahead of Ole Miss right now, but I think the Rebels should not only be ranked ahead of Florida, but much much higher.
Say what you want about Lane Kiffin and his past, he's turned this Ole Miss program into a national power in the blink of eye. He's not only a great coach himself and offensive guru, he's done a remarkable job of bringing in great assistant coaches.
It also helps he might have the best quarterback in the country in Matt Corral. He's looks even better than last year, when he threw for 365 yards and 2 TDs on his way to guiding the Rebels to 48 points and 647 total yards against Alabama. The Crimson Tide did manage to win the game 63-48, but let's not forget that Alabama only led 49-45 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
I'm confident that as long as Corral doesn't get hurt, the Rebels are going to be able to move the ball and put up points.
The thing that really kept Ole Miss from the upset over Alabama last year was their defense. I know it's only been 3 games, but the eye test for me has me thinking they are greatly improved.
The game the really stands out to me is their opener against Louisville, where Ole Miss pitched a shutout in the first half and didn't really give up anything to the Cardinals until it was well out of reach in the 2nd half. Since that game Louisville has put up 30+ points in 3 straight, including 42 on UCF.
I also think it's worth pointing out that Alabama had those 3 straight TD drives to start out that game against Florida. They scored just 10 points the rest of the game. I don't think this is nearly as explosive an offense for the Crimson Tide as last year.
Last thing for me on this game, which is a pretty big factor, Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye in Week 4.
I'll definitely take the points with Ole Miss, but I'm definitely going to have a little bit sprinkled on the money line in this game. Alabama's only loss at home the last 5 years was in 2019 when Joe Burrow and LSU beat them 46-51 as a 6-point dog. Is it that crazy to think we might be seeing a similar run by Ole Miss this year? Give me the Rebels +14.5!
|10-01-21||BYU v. Utah State +9||Top||34-20||Loss||-110||57 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - BYU/Utah St MAX UNIT Top Play (Utah State +9)
I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Utah State as a near double-digit home dog against BYU on Friday night. I not only think the Aggies will cover this game, but I think they got a legit shot at winning this game outright.
Utah State is a team that I had my eye on coming into this season, as I thought they were going to be greatly improved from a year ago, when they went just 1-5 in the 6 games they played. I thought they made a great hire at head coach with Blake Anderson, who really did a great job in his 7 seasons at Arkansas State.
Not only that, but Anderson was able to convince his QB at Arkansas State to come with him in Logan Bonner. This guy made 15 starters with the Red Wolves, threw for more than 3,000 yards with a 30-9 TD-INT ratio.
He played about as poorly as he could in last week's 27-3 loss at home to Boise State, but that was not nearly as lopsided as the final score. In fact, Utah State outgained the Broncos 443 to 435.
It really came down to just a brutal start to the game. Aggies first 4 drives saw them throw two interceptions, turn it over on downs and a missed field goal (blocked).
As for BYU, I'll be the first to admit that the Cougars are faring way better than I expected after losing a guy like Zach Wilson at quarterback. They got two really impressive wins over Utah and Arizona State.
One thing to point out here that I really like is that this will be BYU's first true road game of 2021. You also got the Cougars' star QB, Jaren Hall possibly playing at less than 100%. Hall injured his ribs late in the win over Arizona State and was unable to play last week against USF. His ability to run and create plays is a big part of what makes him great. He's rushed for 166 yards on just 20 attempts (8.3 yards/carry). I just wonder how confident he will be running the ball and risking reinjuring those ribs.
No team is safe in college football this year and with the big home field edge that comes in these weekday games, this is just too good a price to pass up with the Aggies. Give me Utah State +9!
|09-30-21||Virginia +6 v. Miami-FL||Top||30-28||Win||100||31 h 18 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Virginia +6)
I love Virginia as a 6-point dog against Miami. This is the perfect buy low spot on the Cavaliers. Everyone was on Virginia as a slim home favorite against Wake Forest last Friday night. It couldn't have gone much worse for the Cavaliers. They trailed 20-3 at the half and would go on to lose 37-17.
No question the Demon Deacons deserved to win that game, but it wasn't as bad as the score would lead on. Virginia actually outgained WF 506 to 473 with a 31-24 edge in first downs.
As long as Brennan Armstrong is starting at quarterback, this Cavaliers offense is going to put up numbers. Armstrong is second in the country with 1,705 passing yards and has an incredible 13-3 TD-INT ratio.
This just might be the team to back as a dog and not a favorite with how they can score. Either way, I like that offense against what I feel is an overrated Miami defense. We saw Alabama throw for 354 yards on them and Michigan State put up 193 on the ground with another 261 thru the air.
I also don't love the Hurricanes offense. Sure they put up 322 rushing yards last week against CCSU. Big deal. They averaged just 105 rush/yards in their first 3 games against FBS defenses. They also aren't expected to have starting quarterback D'Eriq King for this game, leaving them pretty inexperienced at the most important position on the field. Give me Virginia +6!
|09-26-21||Packers v. 49ers -3.5||30-28||Loss||-100||80 h 35 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Packers/49ers SNF MONEY-MAKER (49ers -3.5)
I bought this to -3 when I put the play in (can't buy points on the site), but lucky for you this line has dropped down to -3 at most books. I don't think it will matter either way. I'm just don't think this Packers team is as good as what people think. The defense is vulnerable, especially against the run, and the offense is going to have their ups and downs until they get healthy on the offensive line.
I give the 49ers a massive edge on both sides of the trenches and we have seen Rodgers struggle to play well when Green Bay goes out west. I see the 49ers putting together a very similar game plan to the Saints, where they just play keep away from Rodgers and the offense with the run game. The betting public won't be able to help themselves with the Packers as a dog, but I got a feeling this game is going to be lopsided the other way. Note that Green Bay is just 9-14 ATS with Rodgers as a starter as a dog and the 49ers are 14-5 SU last 19 at home and have won 23 of their last 27 as a favorite. Give me San Francisco -3.5!
|09-26-21||Seahawks v. Vikings +2||17-30||Win||100||76 h 25 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +2)
I will take a shot on the Vikings as a 2-point home dog against the Seahawks on Sunday. The betting public is going to be all over Seattle in this game and the books know it. For them to make the Seahawks less than a field, tells you a lot about how confident they are with Minnesota winning this game.
The Vikings are 0-2, but could just as easily be 2-0. They should have won in OT at Cincinnati in Week 1 and had a field goal to win it on the road late at Arizona in Week 2. So not only is Minnesota better than people think, they are going to be a desperate team here to avoid an 0-3 start. You also have to keep in mind the Vikings will be playing their first game at home this year.
Minnesota is 35-22 (61%) ATS at home under head coach Mike Zimmer. They are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a road loss under Zimmer and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a loss by 3-points or less. Give me the Vikings +2!
|09-26-21||Bucs v. Rams +1.5||24-34||Win||100||76 h 49 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Bucs/Rams Big Game ATS NO-BRAINER (Rams +1.5)
I will take my chances with the Rams as a +1.5 home dog against the Bucs in the most anticipated game of Week 3. While these are two public teams right now, Tampa Bay is right there with the Chiefs as the biggest public teams and they are going to be the one everyone takes, especially with this line. I just think the Rams are primed to win this game at home.
LA head coach Sean McVay couldn't have been more excited about getting Matthew Stafford and you can see why after these first two games. This Rams team was pretty potent with Goff, now they are elite.
I also still think people are way too high on this Tampa Bay defense after how they dominated the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. That was more of the Chiefs having 2nd and 3rd stringers on the offensive line, many of which were playing out of position. This Bucs secondary is not that good and we have seen them get exposed in the first two games.
Tom Brady and the Bucs clearly have a great offense, but this is going to be by far the best defense they have seen this season after playing the Cowboys and Falcons. We also know the one way to get Brady off his game is to get pressure up the middle. No one in the league is better at that than LA's Aaron Donald. I just trust the Rams offense more in this one. Give me Los Angeles +1.5!
|09-26-21||Jets +10.5 v. Broncos||0-26||Loss||-110||97 h 48 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (+10.5)
I’m going to take the New York Jets as a 10.5-point road dog against the Denver Broncos. I just think this line is a little out of control. This might be from a casual fans perspective the biggest mismatch on the board Sunday. The Jets are 0-2 and have failed to cover the spread in both games. They looked dreadful last week in a 25-6 loss at home to the Pats. Denver on the other hand is 2-0 and have cashed against the spread in both games.
When I look at how these two teams got to where they are, I don’t think New York is as bad as what people think and I don’t think the Broncos are as good as people think.
It shouldn’t have surprised anyone how bad the Jets looked last week against the Patriots. That was a matchup nightmare with how Bill Belichick’s mastery of rookie QBs on the defensive side and the fact that you had a desperate and pissed of NE team that was trying to avoid an 0-2 start after giving a game away at home to the Dolphins in Week 1.
That game was so lopsided that I think people are completely overlooking how competitive they were in a 14-19 road loss to the Panthers. Now I know it’s only two weeks in, but that Carolina team is the real deal. If there’s a team that surprises and makes the playoffs out of the NFC, my money is on the Panthers. They got a very good defense and are extremely well coached on both sides.
I really think the Jets have faced two of the best defensive teams in the league in their first two games. Now I know the Broncos are no pushover defensively, but I don’t think they are on the same level as those two teams. Denver is also down some guys on the defensive side. They lost starting inside linebacker Josey Jewell, one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and one of their top corners in Ronald Darby. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Zack Wilson had a breakout game here.
Getting back to Denver being overvalued. I don’t get why everyone is going all in with this team after beating the Giants and Jags. I get both of those were on the road, but they should be 2-0 coming into this game. Anything other than that would be a huge disappointment. They only beat the Giants by 14 and that game was 10-7 less than halfway thru the 3rd quarter. New York had 4 drives end in Broncos territory that resulted in 0 points. Trailing by just 10 late in the 3rd, they fumbled on 1st and 10 from the Denver 22. The next drive they had 1st and Goal from the 7 and gained 1 yard before turning it over on downs. Very next series they had 1st and 10 from the Den 16 and again turned it over on downs.
I know the Jags had a 102 yard KO return for a TD late in the 4th to only lost by a final score of 23-13, but I feel pretty confident saying Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. Let’s not also forget they only led 10-7 at the half of that game. If the Broncos are a real playoff contender, that should have been even more lopsided than it was.
Last thing I want to point out is I think the perception is the Jets are an awful defensive team, but the numbers don’t support that. Not many teams only give up 25 points when their offense turns it over 4 times. Pats scored two TDs and a FG on 3 of those turnovers. I think people would be shocked to see that the Jets outgained NE 336 to 260 in that game.
No way I’m passing up on the value we are getting at 10.5 with the spread, but I truly believe New York can win this game outright if Wilson takes care of the ball. Give me the Jets +10.5.
|09-26-21||Washington Football Team +8 v. Bills||21-43||Loss||-110||93 h 22 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Football Team +8)
I will gladly take the 8-points with the Football Team on the road against the Bills. I came into this season thinking Buffalo was one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and they certainly haven't looked like an elite team early on. They lost Week 1 at home to a Steelers team that has no offense and while they did win 35-0 last week at Miami, that game was not near as close as the final score would indicate. Not to mention the Dolphins were behind the 8-ball early in that game with Tua leaving with an injury.
Washington was a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season. Even though they are 1-1 with their only loss to the Chargers, it's like everyone has flipped on this team and think they aren't a serious contender anymore in the NFC East. I just think it has the Football Team way undervalued here against a Bills team that just hasn't played great.
One thing that I keep hearing is how this Washington defense isn't any good. Yes, they were overrated coming into the season, but they aren't as bad as what people are saying. I think Chase Young is going to have a big game here and I like this defense to play well enough for the Football Team to not only cover, but win outright. Give me Washington +8!
|09-26-21||Bengals +3 v. Steelers||Top||24-10||Win||100||73 h 33 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +3)
I love the Bengals as a mere 3-point road dog against the Steelers. I'll be the first to admit that I thought this Steelers team was going to be better than people thought. I don't think that anymore. While Pittsburgh's defense is one of the better units in the league, the offense is one of the worst. The Steelers offensive line might be the worst in the NFL and Big Ben looks like he's half the quarterback he was. Roethlisberger is also now dealing with a pec injury, so this doesn't figure to be the game he gets on track.
I also have big concerns with Pittsburgh's defense is T.J. Watt can't go. He's one of several guys on the defensive side of the ball that are questionable for this game.
As for the Bengals, I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this team in their first two games. Joe Burrow might not have any better of an offensive line in front of him, but he's shown that he can find a way to make things happen. I also think this Cincinnati defense is vastly underrated. The Bengals are only giving up 304 ypg, 4.7 yards/play and 3.4 yards/rush. Give me Cincinnati +3!
|09-25-21||Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State||Top||20-31||Loss||-110||66 h 16 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Big 12 Conf PLAY OF THE YEAR (Kansas St +6)
I absolutely love the value here with Kansas State as a 6-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I'm not 100% sure the right team is favored. I was way down on the Cowboys coming into this year and I still think they aren't a good team after their 3-0 start. To me, it's the perfect spot to sell high on this team.
Oklahoma State only beat Missouri State 23-16 in their season opener at home. Really lucky the defense stepped up in the red zone and held the Bears to 3 field goals (two inside 35 yards). They then only beat Tulsa 28-23 and were trailing 7-14 going into the 4th quarter. Last week they somehow beat Boise State 21-20 after falling behind 7-20 in the 1st half. Cowboys are 3-0 and yet are outing teams on the year 337 to 329.
K-State is also 3-0 and probably would be getting a little more respect if they didn't lose starting QB Skyler Thompson to a knee injury. This is a team that can without great QB play, as they run it extremely well and are outstanding on the defensive side of the ball. Wildcats are giving up just 1.9 yards/rush and if they take away the run from the Cowboys their offense is in major trouble.
Adding to that, since Mike Gundy took over as head coach, Oklahoma State is 15-25 ATS vs teams who are giving up 3.25 or less yards/carry. K-State has covered 7 of their 10 road games under Chris Klieman and won outright in 4 of their 9 as a road dog. Give me the Wildcats +6!
|09-25-21||Nebraska v. Michigan State -4.5||Top||20-23||Loss||-110||66 h 14 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Ten Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK (Michigan St -4.5)
I'll be the first to admit that I greatly undervalued this Michigan State team in last week's game against Miami. They should have been the ones that were the near touchdown favorite. The Spartans won the game 38-17.
Michigan State has one of the best players not everyone knows about in Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III. He had 172 yards on 27 attempts (6.4 yards/carry). He leads the country with 493 rushing yards.
Opposing defenses have no choice but to load the box to try and stop him from taking over the game and even then it's not enough. It's really opened up things for quarterback Payton Thorne. He's completed 62.3% of his attempts with a 9-0 TD-INT ratio.
Nebraska is giving up 156 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry vs the run, which to me is concerning. They have played 3 awful teams in Illinois, Fordham and Buffalo and the other was against an Oklahoma team that likes to throw it with their stud QB.
Speaking of the Sooners, I really feel like Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it much closer than expect in last week's 16-23 loss to Oklahoma. All you heard about that game was how the Sooners were going to roll them. I just wonder if the Oklahoma players didn't let some of that go to their head.
Adrian Martinez has put up some decent passing numbers, but I think for him to really have success they need to be able to run the ball. Something that hasn't been easy to do on the Spartans.
You also got to take into account the difficult spot here for Nebraska. It's not going to be easy playing their second straight on the road, especially after how much they put into that game against Oklahoma. On top of that, it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere under the lights in East Lansing. Give me Michigan State -4.5!
|09-25-21||UCLA -4 v. Stanford||35-24||Win||100||65 h 19 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -4)
I love the spot and the price here with UCLA as a slim 4-point road favorite against Stanford. I think it's a great buy low spot on the Bruins after last week's 37-40 loss at home to Fresno State as a 10.5-point favorite. That's a really really good Fresno State team that gave Oregon all they could handle earlier in the season.
Same time, I think we are seeing the Cardinal getting a little bit of love after their last two games. The big one was two weeks ago when they went on the road and beat USC 42-28 as a 17-point dog. They followed that up with a 41-23 win at Vandy as a 12.5-point favorite.
UCLA couldn't have looked much better in their first two games, rolling Hawaii 44-10 and upsetting LSU 38-27 at home. It might be taking a little longer than some thought, but Chip Kelly definitely has this Bruins program on the rise.
I just don't think Stanford is going to be able to keep pace offensively with UCLA. The Bruins are averaging 4.8 yards/carry vs teams that allow 3.3. The Cardinal are giving up 5.9 yards/carry vs teams that only average 4.5.
The Bruins are giving up 63 yards/game and 2.3 yards/carry. Stanford is only averaging 128 rush yards/game and in their lone loss, a 7-24 setback against K-State, they only had 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts.
I give UCLA a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. As long as the Bruins don't go out and turn it over a bunch, they should roll here. Give me UCLA -4!
|09-25-21||Missouri v. Boston College +2||34-41||Win||100||69 h 43 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2)
I'm going to take the Boston College +2 at home against Missouri. The Eagles come in 3-0, but I think they are still flying a bit under the radar. A lot of that has to do with the loss of starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec and the lack of quality wins they have on their resume.
I also think that while Missouri is far from an SEC power, a lot of people just see SEC vs ACC and automatically lay the short number with the Tigers without even looking into this game.
The loss of Jurkovec is a tough blow for BC, but not all is lost with backup Dennis Grosel. I know he was a pedestrian 7 of 15 for 59 yards in last week's game against Temple, but I think that was a direct result of the Eagles feeling like they didn't need to throw with how they were running it and playing defense. That's how this team wants to win. They want to run the ball behind one of the best o-lines in the country and play solid defense. No surprise this is how they play under 2nd year head coach Jeff Hafley who worked his way up on the defensive side of the ball.
Grosel was 11 of 14 for 199 yards the previous week against UMASS and if you remember back to last year he had that ridiculous game at Virginia to close out the year, going 32 of 46 for 520 yards and 4 TDs. If needed, I think he's more than capable of answering the call.
As for the schedule, it's been 3 cupcake opponents for the Eagles with Colgate, UMASS and Temple. The most important thing is they dominated those games. They are +31 ppg, averaging 406 ypg and giving up just 256 ypg. Just because they haven't played anybody doesn't mean they aren't a good football team.
As for Missouri, I got a lot of concerns with this team. They are 2-1 with wins over Central Michigan and SE Missouri St and a 28-35 loss at Kentucky. It's really what you would expect from this team if you were handicapping their first 3 games coming into the season.
I just haven't been that impressed with how they have got there. They only beat the Chippewas 34-24 as a 14-point favorite. They needed a field goal in the final second of the 1st half to take their first lead 17-14 into intermission and they only led 24-21 midway thru the 4th quarter. That looks a lot worse after watching LSU just annihilate Central Michigan this past weekend. LSU was up 42-7 with about 10 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter before completely calling off the dogs in a 49-21 win.
That game against Kentucky was also not as close as the score would indicate. The Wildcats outgained the Tigers 519 to 398 and if Kentucky doesn't fumble deep in Missouri territory that game is 28-7 early in the 2nd quarter. Missouri had to complete a 3rd and Goal from the 7 for their first score and scored on a 17-yard TD pass with 4 seconds on the clock in the 1st half.
The other huge thing here with Missouri is their defense. I think there was some hope that they would be improved from last year, when they gave up 32.3 ppg and 408 ypg. It doesn't seem to be. While they are only giving up 31.3 ppg, they are allowing 456 ypg. They are giving up 269 ypg on the ground, 6.4 yards/carry. They also gave up over 300 yards passing to Central Michigan.
That BC offensive line is going to dominate this game and I think the Eagles ball control offense could take Missouri out of their rhythm. Only Eastern Michigan is averaging fewer plays per game offensively than the Eagles through the first 3 weeks of the season.
Lastly, I think there's some outside factors here favoring Boston College. First, you have Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz saying how he wishes the Tigers were playing someone else out of conference and how he can't think of the last time Missouri even recruited a guy out of the state of UMass. He might not of meant it as a slight to the Eagles, but that's 100% how the players and coaches are going to see.
This is also the first time that BC has got to host a SEC school since 1987. I know it's a 1 o'clock game out east, but I think it will be an electric atmosphere at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Give me the Eagles +2!
|09-25-21||Texas Tech +8 v. Texas||35-70||Loss||-110||59 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Smart Money ATS SHOCKER (Texas Tech +8)
I will gladly take my chances with the Red Raiders as a 8-point dog against the Longhorns Saturday night. I definitely think Texas should be favored at home, but no way should they be laying more than a touchdown.
I was really high on the Red Raiders coming into this year. All signs pointed to them making a big jump from last year's 4-6 team. It's now year 3 under head coach Matt Wells, who is a guy I really like (two time MW COY). It's now a roster full of guys he's recruited for his style of play.
Texas Tech is off to a 3-0 start. They have played a pretty easy schedule, but did beat Houston 38-21 as a 3-point dog on a neutral site.
The Red Raiders are scoring 40.0 ppg and it's come against teams who on average allow just 27.2. They got a crazy good 7.6 yards/play, are averaging 5.7 yards/carry and completing 67.1% of their pass attempts.
The defense is only giving up 291 ypg, 4.0 yards/play and allowing just 1.8 yards/carry vs the run. There's no reason Tech can't win this game outright and if I was making the number here it would be Texas -4. Give me the Red Raiders +8!
|09-25-21||LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5||Top||28-25||Loss||-110||59 h 15 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - SEC Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK (Miss St +2.5)
I love the Bulldogs as a home dog against LSU. The books are begging you to lay less than a field goal with the Tigers, but they got no business being favored in this game. I really think LSU is still overvalued from that title team with Burrow a couple of years ago. It's looking more and more like a fluke.
As soon as Burrow and offensive guru Joe Brady left town, LSU has struggled to beat good teams. We already seen them lose by double-digits on the road against UCLA. That's a good Bruins team, but one a good LSU team should beat pretty handedly.
Mississippi State is 2-1 with wins over La Tech and NC State. The lone loss was last week's 29-31 setback at Memphis. If you didn't see it, the Bulldogs got absolutely screwed in that game by a horrible call by the refs. The win that really stands out is the 24-10 victory against NC State. A game they closed as a slim home dog.
I just really like what Mike Leach is doing in Starkville. As you would expect with a Leach offense, they sling it on just about every play. Defending the pass hasn't exactly been a strong suit of the Tigers. Last year Mississippi State had 623 passing yards in a 44-34 upset win at LSU.
I also think the Bulldogs defense is very underrated. They are giving up just 5 yards/play, which isn't out of this world, but it's come against teams who are averaging 6.7 yards/play on the season. LSU has given up 4.6 yards/play and it's been against offenses that average 4.9 yards/play. Give me Mississippi State +2.5!
|09-24-21||Wake Forest v. Virginia -4||Top||37-17||Loss||-100||43 h 47 m||Show|
50* (CFB) Friday Night CFB MAX UNIT Top Play (Virginia -4)
I'll lay the 4-points at home with Virginia on Friday night. The Cavaliers will be hosting Wake Forest, who I think might be a bit overvalued coming into this game. The Demon Deacons are off to a 3-0 start and fresh off a 35-14 blowout win as a mere -4.5 point home favorite against Florida State.
Good for them for whooping the Seminoles, but that's a bad Florida State team (I was completely wrong on the Seminoles...thought they would be much better). Their other two wins are against Old Dominion and Norfolk State.
Not only will this be the first game that Wake is a dog, but it's also their first game away from home this year. I just think when a team plays 3 or more games at home to start the season, there's a really good chance they are going to be overvalued. Almost every team plays better at home than on the road.
While the Demon Deacons are probably getting a little too much love, I think it's a decent buy low spot on Virginia after last week's ugly 39-59 loss to Sam Howell and the Tar Heels. That game was in North Carolina and while they had no answer for UNC's offense, their offense showed up and racked up 577 yards.
I also think it says a lot about this team with how they responded in the 1st half. Virginia trailed 7-24 with more than 10 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter and managed to go into the half up 28-24. They just ran out of gas in the 2nd half.
While I like Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, the best QB in this game is Virginia's Brennan Armstrong. He went 39 of 54 for 554 yards and 4 TDs in that loss to UNC. His 1,298 passing yards in 2nd in the nation behind Fresno State's Jake Haener, who has played 1 more game. His 11 passing TDs also ranks 2nd in the country behind SMU's Tanner Mordecai, who has 16 with 7 of those coming against Abilene Christian.
I definitely think there's an extra home field advantage in these weekday games. Not only do you get great atmosphere's in these night games with fans, but it's that much harder on the road team with 1 less day to prepare. Virginia is 11-3 ATS last 14 at home.
Another factor for me in this game is revenge. Virginia wants to return the favor after losing 23-40 at Wake Forest last October. A game that was tied 23-23 in the 4th quarter before the Deacons scored 17 unanswered to close it out. Give me the Cavaliers -4!
|09-23-21||Panthers -7.5 v. Texans||24-9||Win||100||22 h 4 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Panthers/Texans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Panthers -7.5)
If you are a long-term client, you know that the OVER is my go to in these Thursday games, especially early in the season. If Tyrod Taylor was starting for Houston, I would have been. I just can't take an over when I'm not sure one of the two teams will be able to move the ball.
Third round rookie Davis Mills will start in place of Taylor. Mills wasn't drafted with any kind of expectation that they would need him. He's just not ready for this stage and honestly may never be. He was 8 of 18 for 102 yards. That's 5.7 yards/attempt. Taylor was 10 of 11 for 125 yards with an 11.4 yards/attempt before he went down (Houston might have won that game if he doesn't get hurt). Mills also doesn't have the mobility and ability to move the chains with his feet.
He's also going up against an extremely well coached Carolina defense that has been elite in their first two games. They held the Jets to 252 total yards and the Saints to a whopping 128. They have given up 90 rushing yards in two games, giving up just 2.7 yards/carry.
I think the only thing that would give Mills a chance to be good in this game, is if Houston got the run game going.
On the flip side, there's no reason to think this Carolina offense won't be able to expose a bad Houston defense that won't by near it's best on just 3 days. Houston is giving up 375 yards/game (Panthers have allowed 380 total in two games). They let an awful Jags offense put up 395 yards.
The other thing with the Panthers is I think people are slow to believe in this team because of Sam Darnold. All they can think about is how bad the Jets were with Darnold the last couple of years. He's much improved and in a much better scheme for his skill set. He also benefits from all the attention that Christian McCaffrey gets from defenses.
I know it's the NFL and you never quite know what is going to happen, but I would be shocked if Houston had any kind of chance to cover in the 2nd half. Give me the Panthers -7.5!
|09-19-21||Chiefs -3 v. Ravens||Top||35-36||Loss||-112||129 h 3 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I just don't understand this line. This to me feels like what the line should be if both teams were at full strength. That's just not the case. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It's really starting to remind me a lot of the 49ers last year, where they had so many guys go out they went 6-10 just one year removed from playing in the SB.
Everyone knows about all the guys the Ravens have had go down at running back. They also lost one of their best defensive players in corner Marcus Peters. There's also major concern up front on the offensive line. That unit played really bad against a mediocre Raiders defensive front. While it doesn't figure to be long-term, starting left-tackle Ronnie Staley is doubtful to play. The Chiefs are going to LIVE in the Ravens backfield.
On the flip side of this, I think because the Browns were up the majority of that game last week, people overlook just how good the Chiefs offense was. Kansas City only punted twice that entire game. Only one of their drives didn't end in Cleveland territory. Patrick Mahomes was only sacked twice, which I think speaks volumes to that new offensive line. The Browns got one of the best defensive fronts in the league.
If Baltimore runs all that man-to-man defense, Mahomes is going to pick them apart if he's got time to throw. Mahomes has really feasted on this Baltimore defense the past few years and this might be his best game versus them yet. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|09-19-21||Cowboys v. Chargers -3||20-17||Loss||-100||127 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers -3)
I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. After watching that Cowboys/Bucs game last Thursday, I immediately circled this game at the Chargers as a spot to play against Dallas.
The betting public loves the Cowboys and are going to be betting them like crazy here after what they saw out of this Dallas offense with Dak Prescott under center.
That offense is really good, but I'm not as high on that Tampa Bay secondary as others. It's the front 7 that really makes that Bucs defense. I think they could have a little tougher time against this Chargers secondary. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick barely played, but you can't ignore the fact that they held Washington 133 yards passing. That's unheard of in today's NFL. Let's also not forget their new head coach, Brandon Stately got this job because of what he did on the defensive side of the ball with the Rams.
The even bigger thing that is getting overlooked with Dallas because of all the attention Dak and that offense are getting, is this Cowboys defense is once again one of the worst units in the league. I thought they were fortunate to only give up 31 to Brady and the Bucs.
The Chargers offense didn't wow us in Week 1, as they only put up 20 points in their win over Washington. While I don't know if the Football Team is as good defensively as what everyone is saying, that's a much better defense than the one they will face on Sunday and they should be much more comfortable at home. They did have an impressive 424 yards of total offense against Washington. I think Justin Herbert is going to have a field day in this one and I would be shocked if LA didn't put up at least 30 in this one. Give me the Chargers -3!
|09-19-21||Patriots -4.5 v. Jets||Top||25-6||Win||100||147 h 4 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5)
I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it.
New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games.
Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything.
The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5!