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Brandon Lee Football Sides Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
12-22-22 Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor 30-15 Win 100 21 h 33 m Show

9* NCAAF Armed Forces Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER: Air Force Falcons +3.5

I will gladly take my chances with Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog against Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday. You would think that service academies would be at a disadvantage in bowl games, given how long the opposing teams has to prepare for the triple-option, but that seems to be getting baked into the line. Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 21-9 ATS in bowl games going back to 2005. 

Motivation is also everything in bowl games. I have to think Air Force will be the more excited team to play in this game. Service Academies just don't take these games off. Probably why they are so good against the number. Falcons should be excited to play a Power 5 school. As for Baylor, this is not the bowl game they thought they would be playing in.

It's not exactly going to be nice out for this game either. Temps are expected to be below 20 with winds pushing 20 mph with gusts upward of 40 mph. That 100% favors the better running team, which is Air Force. With Baylor's pass game negated, I wouldn't be shocked here if the Falcons won this convincingly. Give me Air Force +3.5! 

12-21-22 South Alabama -3.5 v. Western Kentucky Top 23-44 Loss -110 12 h 37 m Show

10* New Orleans Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: S Alabama -3.5

I'll take my chances with South Alabama laying 3.5 in the New Orleans Bowl against Western Kentucky. I think this Jaguars team is going to relish in the opportunity to put some more respect on their season. This team went 10-2 with their only two losses being by 1-point on the road to UCLA and by 4 to the Sun Belt's best team in Troy. They also won 9 of their 10 games by at least a touchdown. 

They are going to be facing a WKU team that has been decimated by players leaving either to the portal or leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft. On offense they won't have second leading receiver Daewood Davis, starting left tackle Gunner Britton and center Rusty Staats. The big story here is the loss of two starters on the o-line and those are widely considered the two most important positions on the offensive line. 

That to me is going to be a serious problem against a South Alabama defense that gave up just 19.4 ppg, 304 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. They only gave up 300 passing yards once all season. 

The Hilltoppers also lost second leading tackler Derrick Smith (NFL), corner Kahlef Hailassie (NFL) and safety Talique Allen (Portal) on the defensive side of the ball. Those losses in the secondary could be big. Give me South Alabama -3.5! 

12-18-22 Titans +3 v. Chargers Top 14-17 Push 0 76 h 16 m Show

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3

I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins. 

I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team. 

They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. 

I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3! 

12-18-22 Patriots v. Raiders +1 24-30 Win 100 76 h 59 m Show

9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Las Vegas Raiders +1

I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a 1-point home dog against the Patriots. Las Vegas is nowhere near as bad as their 5-8 record would lead you to believe. Their scoring differential for the season is a mere -5. Just to give you an idea of where that stacks up with the rest of the league, Miami is 10th in the NFL in scoring difference at +4. 

The Raiders couldn't be much unluckier in close games. Out of their 8 losses 7 of those have come by 7 or fewer points. That includes their shocking 16-17 loss at the Rams last week. The Raiders had a 16-3 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. It was all downhill from there. They gave up a 17-play 75-yard TD drive and then let the Rams go 98-yards on just 8 plays in 1:35 to score the game-winning TD with just 10 seconds to play. LA had 173 total yards in those last two drives. They had 109 total yards prior to that. 

It's a bad look to lose a game like that, but I don't think it's going to keep the Raiders from coming out with a big effort in this game. Keep in mind, if they win that game, they would be coming into this game having won 4 straight. 

Not only do I think the Raiders come into this game a bit undervalued, I'm not sold on this Patriots team. Sure they are coming off a 27-13 win at Arizona, but the Cardinals lost starting quarterback Kyler Murray early in that game. NE only outgunned Arizona 328-323. 

I just don't like what I've seen at all out of this Patriots offense and I don't think there defense is as good as what it gets made out to be. In this game, they will be facing a Raiders offense that is scoring 28.0 ppg at home. I just don't think NE is going to be able keep pace offensively. Give me the Raiders +1! 

12-18-22 Lions v. Jets 20-17 Loss -110 73 h 21 m Show

9* NFL Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets PK

I'm going to take the New York Jets as a pick'em at home against the Detroit Lions. I just think this is the time to fade the Lions. Detroit has really changed the narrative on their season and how they are perceived by going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. The most recent being an impressive 34-23 win at home over a Minnesota team that came in with a 10-2 record. 

No question Dan Campbell has got this team playing well, but let's not get too carried away with this. The Lions other 4 wins during their recent hot streak are against the Jags, Giants, Bears and Packers. They have also benefited from playing each of their last 3 games at home, where they are simply a different offensive team. 

Detroit is scoring 26.8 ppg for the season, yet are only averaging 18.4 ppg on the road. You also got to factor in the Lions being a team that plays their home games in a dome. This game will be played outdoors with the wind chill expected to around freezing. 

Not to mention they are facing a pretty stingy Jets defense, that is only giving up 18.7 ppg. New York is holding opponents to an average of just 301 ypg and 5.0 yards/play and that's against teams who on average have put up 349 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

This just also feels like the perfect spot to back the Jets, who come in off back-to-back road losses to the Vikings and Bills where they had to feel like they were the better team. New York outgained the Vikings 486 to 297, averaging 5.9 yards/play to Minnesota's 4.3. They also outgained Buffalo 309 to 232 this past Sunday. 

I still think this is a better team with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. With White the offense can actually compliment the defense. I definitely think the offense will do their part in this game. Detroit's not a great defensive team. The Lions are giving up 26.7 ppg, 403 yards/game and 6.4 yards/play. I just don't see Detroit scoring enough to pull off the road win in this one. 

Note that the Lions are just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they have played on the road having won 4 of their last 5 games. 

We also see that Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are giving up 24 or more points/game and have scored 25 or more in each of their last 4 games are just 4-24 ATS in the NFL going back to 1983. This system is a perfect 1-0 this season, 9-1 over the last 3 seasons and 17-2 over the last 10 years. Give me the Jets Pk! 

*This play was released before the news came out that Mike White was going to be unavailable to play. With that said, I'm sticking with my play on the Jets. Zach Wilson may be a slight downgrade from White, but this Lions defense is one that even Wilson can have success against. I also have a ton of trust in this Jets defense and their ability to make things extremely difficult on Goff and this Lions offense. 

12-18-22 Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 Top 34-40 Win 100 73 h 48 m Show

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season. 

I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win. 

Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out. 

I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4! 

12-17-22 Dolphins v. Bills -7 29-32 Loss -110 56 h 2 m Show

9* NFL Saturday Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Buffalo Bills -7

I got no problem laying a touchdown at home with Buffalo against the Dolphins. Defenses have figured out how to stop this Miami offense. The 49ers laid the blueprint and a Chargers defense that was missing 6 starters replicated it the next week. They are pressing the speedy wideouts and taking away the middle of the field. In the last two games, Tua has returned to the Tua we saw in the past. 

I would be shocked here if Buffalo didn't give them the same looks. I also think the Miami offense and entire team for that matter, could struggle in what figures to be some less than ideal playing conditions. The wind chill is expected to be below 20 with close to 25 mph wind gusts. 

I know that's not ideal playing conditions for the Buffalo offense either, but their might not be a better quarterback for shitty weather than Josh Allen. He's got the arm strength to zip the ball thru the wind and is really an elite runner with the ball. 

I also don't think this Dolphins defense is very good. It certainly hasn't been on the road this season. Miami is giving up 31.4 ppg, 387 ypg and 6.1 yards/play away from South Beach. 

The Dolphins defense certainly couldn't stop the Bills in the previous meeting between these two teams this season. Buffalo put up 497 total yards. Their defense also held Miami to just 212 yards. Hard to believe the Dolphins won that game 21-19. I got to think that loss is fresh in the minds of the Bills.

This also feels like a huge game for Buffalo in securing an AFC East title. A win here and the Bills would be at least 3 games up on every other team in the division. A loss would put them just 1-game ahead of Miami with the Dolphins holding the tie-breaker. My money is on Buffalo to not just win, but make a statement doing so. Give me the Bills -7! 

12-17-22 Fresno State -3.5 v. Washington State Top 29-6 Win 100 45 h 20 m Show

10* NCAAF Los Angeles Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5

I don't think the books are close on this one. All signs in this one point to a convincing win here by the Bulldogs. I don't have much doubt that Fresno State is going to be up for this game. The message was sent to the entire team when star quarterback Jake Haener decided to play instead of leaving early to prepare for the NFL draft. 

This is also a Fresno State team that caught fire after a slow start. The Bulldogs were just 1-4 thru 5 games with their only win against Cal Poly. They haven't lost since, riding a 8-game win streak, most recently knocking off Boise State 28-16 in the MWC title game. Pretty impressive a team that was once 1-4 has a shot here for a 10-win season. 

The offense has been great since Haener returned from injury and the defense has made a few schematic changes that seem to be working. 

As for Washington State, they are a complete mess coming into this game. Both their offensive and defensive coordinators took jobs at other schools. They won't have 3 of their top 4 receivers on offense and 3 top linebackers aren't playing on defense. This team can't run the ball, so not having those weapons on the outside is huge. They are also awful against the pass and facing an elite quarterback. Give me Fresno State -3.5! 

12-17-22 Louisville -2 v. Cincinnati 24-7 Win 100 47 h 31 m Show

9* NCAAF Fenway Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR: Louisville Cardinals -2

I'm going to lay the 2-points with Louisville as they take on Cincinnati in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday. This bowl game has an interesting twist to it, with former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield just recently being hired as the new head coach of the Bearcats. A move Cincinnati had to make after watching their head coach, Luke Fickell, take over at Wisconsin. 

I think most are going to assume that Satterfield is going to just hand over the Louisville playbook to Cincinnati to help them prepare for this game. That would be quite the low ball move if he does, as Satterfield was not fired from Louisville. He's came out and said he would not interfere with the bowl preparations. Part of that is a sign of respect to the staff leftover at Cincinnati. 

Yes, Satterfield took a number of his assistants with him, but so did Fickell in his departure to Wisconsin. In my opinion, the loss of Fickell is going to hurt the Bearcats more than the loss of Satterfield for the Cardinals. Fickell is the defensive mastermind behind what got Cincinnati to this point. He took his two defensive coordinators with him to Madison. 

I also got to think that while Satterfield won't be on the sidelines for this game, this game now means a little more to the Cardinals with him leaving to be the head coach at Cincinnati. 

I also think you just got to question the overall motivation for the Bearcats in this game. Cincinnati's loss to Tulane in their finale cost them a spot in the AAC title game, where a win over UCF would have certainly had them playing in a better bowl. Quite a difference between playing on the first Saturday of bowl season to playing in the CFB playoffs last year. Give me Louisville -2! 

12-16-22 Troy +2.5 v. UTSA 18-12 Win 100 7 h 42 m Show

8* NCAAF Cure Bowl ATS DESTROYER: Troy Trojans +2.5

I'll take my chances with Troy as a 2.5-point dog against UTSA in Friday's Cure Bowl. This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the early bowl slate, as you have the best offensive team in the Group of 5 (UTSA) facing off against the best defensive team in the Group of 5 (Troy). 

I'll side with the better defensive team in the Trojans, as I think they are going to be able to slow down Frank Harris and that UTSA offense. One thing that I think you need to make note of with the Roadrunners big offensive numbers, is they played an extremely soft schedule in terms of opposing defenses. Maybe even the bigger hurdle for UTSA's offense is the fact that they lost offensive coordinator Will Stein (accepted same role at Oregon). 

The other big thing for me, is I think this Troy offense will be able to move the ball against this UTSA defense. The Roadrunners have a strong run defense, but you can rack up yards thru the air on this defense. The Trojans offense was hitting on all cylinders down the stretch, scoring 42.3 ppg and averaging 6.6 yards/play over their last 3 games. Give me Troy +2.5! 

12-15-22 49ers -3 v. Seahawks Top 21-13 Win 100 10 h 21 m Show

10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3

I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco. 

The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense. 

San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver. 

As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football. 

I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3! 

12-11-22 Bucs v. 49ers -3 7-35 Win 100 28 h 52 m Show

9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Francisco 49ers -3

I'll take my chances with the 49ers as a 3-point home favorite against the Bucs. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with San Francisco, largely due to the market not really knowing what to make of the 49ers being down to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy. 

I was impressed with what I saw out of Purdy in relief of Garoppolo in last week's 33-17 win over the Dolphins. He went 25 of 37 for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Much like Garoppolo, he's not going to be asked to shoulder the load. They are going to get the ball out of his hands quick and let their playmakers do the rest.

It also helps having one of the league's best defenses. I'm not buying the Bucs two late TD drives against the Saints as some sign that this offense is going to break out. I don't think there's any fixing Tampa Bay's offense. I really think the 49ers defense is going to torment Brady and the Bucs in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! 

12-11-22 Jets +10 v. Bills 12-20 Win 100 25 h 34 m Show

9* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets +10

I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 10-point road dog against the Bills. These two teams already played once in New York, with the Jets winning that game 20-17 as a 10.5-point home dog. They did so with Zach Wilson as their starting QB. I'm not saying their new starter, Mike White, is this elite guy, but he's a massive upgrade over Wilson. Not just on the field, but I think there's a different mindset with the entire team now that Wilson isn't the guy under center. 

White led the Jets to a 31-10 win over the Bears in his first start and then really should have gotten them a big road win at the Vikings last week. New York ended up losing that game 22-27, despite outgaining the Vikings 486-287. 

We saw the Jets' defense really give Josh Allen and that Bills offense some troubles in the first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around. Buffalo to me is just being way overvalued coming off a big win and cover in a prime time game against the Patriots. Give me the Jets +10! 

12-11-22 Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 Top 36-22 Loss -105 25 h 33 m Show

10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5

I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year. 

Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags. 

This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play. 

I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5! 

12-05-22 Saints +3.5 v. Bucs Top 16-17 Win 100 11 h 45 m Show

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury. 

That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33. 

You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. 

Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives. 

New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5! 

12-04-22 Dolphins v. 49ers -4.5 17-33 Win 100 16 h 48 m Show

8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: San Francisco 49ers -4.5

I'll take my chances with San Francisco laying 4.5 at home against Miami. I just got a feeling this Dolphins team isn’t as good as what people think. Miami has won 5 straight since Tua’s return from a concussion and are 8-0 this season when he starts and finishes a game. It’s impressive, but at the same time, this team could very easily be 4-4 in Tua’s 8 full starts this year.

They had a ridiculous 42-38 win at Baltimore, where they trailed 14-35 going into the 4th quarter. They were outgained 497 to 212 in a 21-19 win at home over the Bills, trailed by doubled-digits in the 2nd half at Detroit and barely snuck out a 3-point win against the Bears. The other 4 wins were against the Patriots, Steelers, Browns and Texans. 

I also think this team has feasted on some bad defenses and outside of the 4th quarter against the Ravens have struggled against the better defensive teams. I think a 49ers defense that can get pressure without blitzing can really cause some problems for Tua and this offense, especially when you factor in how good this San Francisco defense is against the run. 

I get the 49ers offense isn’t anything special and certainly didn’t play up to their potential in last week’s 13-0 win at home against the Saints, but let’s not forget they did have to play that game on just 6 days of rest after playing the previous week in Mexico City. This is not a very good Dolphins defense. Give me the 49ers -4.5! 

12-04-22 Steelers +1 v. Falcons Top 19-16 Win 100 12 h 29 m Show

10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1

I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team. 

The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road. 

This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air. 

I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1! 

12-03-22 Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 39-10 Loss -110 55 h 49 m Show

9* NCAAF ACC Championship VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5

I'm going to take the 7.5-points with North Carolina in Saturday's ACC Championship Game against Clemson. I just feel that there's too much value here with the Tar Heels catching more than a touchdown on a neutral site. 

I really question how motivated the Clemson players are for this game. I know Dabo is saying how important this game is, but this is still a program that the very least expects to be one of the teams in the 4-team playoff. Not getting there with this year's team is a disappointment.

How much do they really care about winning another ACC title? I also have to think there's some kids in that locker room wondering if D.J. Uiagalelei is the answer at quarterback. For whatever reason Dabo's attached to him. Almost like he feels bad for the kid not delivering on expectations and wants to give him the shot to prove doubters wrong. Dabo can say he wasn't the problem in last week's loss to South Carolina, but he was a dismal 8 of 29 (27.6%) for a mere 99 yards. I'm also not so sure freshman Cade Klubnik is that much of an upgrade if they go to him. 

Not saying they won't be able to move the ball, I just don't believe they will be able to exploit this North Carolina defense as much as people think. 

As for the Tar Heels, even after losing their last two games, I got to think they will be extremely motivated for this game. UNC has never won this game since it was first played back in 2005 and their only appearance came back in 2015. Winning this game would be everything for head coach Mack Brown, as he's trying to take this program to that next level, where they aren't just competing for Coastal titles, but national titles. 

North Carolina also happens to have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Drake Maye. Last week South Carolina's Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards against them. If you really take a close look at the schedule for Clemson, they really haven't been great against the better offensive teams. They gave up 45 to Wake Forest, 28 to Florida State, 35 to Notre Dame and then 31 to South Carolina. 

I think UNC has a great shot here to get into the 30s, which means it would probably take at least 40 for Clemson to even have a shot at cover. I don't think that's happening. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5! 

12-03-22 Central Florida +4 v. Tulane 28-45 Loss -110 48 h 28 m Show

9* NCAAF UCF/Tulane AAC ATS MASSACRE: UCF Knights +4

*Analysis Coming* 

12-03-22 Kansas State +2.5 v. TCU Top 31-28 Win 100 45 h 30 m Show

10* NCAAF K-State/TCU Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH : Kansas State Wildcats +2.5

I'll take my chances with K-State as a 2.5-point dog against TCU in the Big 12 title game. TCU is a good football team, but they are very lucky to be 12-0 right now. They have trailed in the 2nd half of the majority of their conference games. Yes, they destroyed Iowa State 62-14 last week, but that was more of the Cyclones not showing up to play. That defense had been too good all season to just give up 60+ points. 

One of the teams TCU pulled a rabbit out of its hat was a game at home against Kansas State earlier this season. K-State had 28 points before the halfway point of the 2nd quarter and were up 18 points. They somehow didn't score again the rest of the game and ended up losing 28-38. The only other two losses for the Wildcats were a shocking 10-17 loss at home to Tulane and a 27-34 loss at home to Texas. K-State could very easily be 11-1 and knocking on the door of the playoff. 

Offensively TCU has a slight edge, but the Wildcats have the better defense and will be much better prepared for the Horned Frog attack. They say defense wins championships and if that holds true, K-State should win this game. I believe they will. Give me the Wildcats +2.5! 

12-02-22 Utah v. USC -2.5 Top 47-24 Loss -110 29 h 31 m Show

10* NCAAF Utah/USC Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: USC Trojans -2.5 

I'll take my chances with USC as a 2.5-point favorite against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas (Allegiant Stadium). I like the Trojans to get their revenge on Utah, as the Utes handed them their only loss of the season so far. The first meeting came back on Oct. 15. Utah won that game 43-42. The Utes scored a TD with 48 seconds to play and instead of kicking an extra point to send it to OT, they went for 2 and got it. 

It's pretty amazing what Lincoln Riley has done in his first year at USC and when you look at how far Oklahoma has fallen without him, it's pretty safe he's a big part of it. So is, quarterback Caleb Williams. Thing is, isn't an elite Heisman producing QB what Riley has had with his teams at Oklahoma that made the playoffs. 

He's certainly going to have his team ready to play in this game. Riley made 4 Big 12 title games in his tenure with the Sooners and Oklahoma won all 4. Their smallest margin of victory was 6 points with 3 of the 4 coming by a touchdown or more. 

I don't think facing Williams a second time is going to make any easier on this Utah defense either. He's going to make plays. On the flip side, I think having seen this Utah offense will benefit the Trojans. At the end of the day, I just don't see the Utes scoring enough to win this one. Give me USC -2.5! 

11-28-22 Steelers v. Colts -2 24-17 Loss -110 11 h 1 m Show

9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts -2

I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 2-point home favorite against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. I've really liked what I've seen out of Indianapolis in the two games since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach. This has looked more like the team that we expected to see coming into the year, yet I still think they are being priced like the team that has a 4-6-1 record. 

In the two game under Saturday, the Colts have went on the road and beat the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point dog and lost 16-17 at home to the Eagles as a 7-point dog. I backed Indy in both of those games. 

The defense has been outstanding in both of those games. They held the Raiders to 77 rushing yards and just 309 total yards. They held the Eagles to just 141 rushing yards and 314 total yards. I think they will be able to keep Pittsburgh from running the football and I just don't have a lot of faith in Kenny Pickett to make the plays needed on the road for Pittsburgh to win this game. 

I'm not saying it will be easy for Indy's offense. I do have my concerns with that o-line trying to pass protect against T.J. Watt. However, we have seen the Colts get back to running the ball with Taylor since Saturday took over and I think he will be able to do enough to take some of the pressure off of Ryan in this one. Give me the Colts -2! 

11-27-22 Bears v. Jets -4 10-31 Win 100 133 h 57 m Show

9* NFL Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets -4

I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 4-point home favorite against the Bears. This to me is a no-brainer. The ONLY reason that Chicago has been competitive of late has been the play of quarterback Justin Fields. He's been absolutely tormenting defenses with his legs. 

I think there's a good chance he doesn't even play in this game. Fields is listed as questionable with a pretty bad injury to his non-throwing shoulder. It really doesn't make sense for Chicago to risk playing him, as they are completely out of it at 3-8. Also, even if he were to play, I don't think he would be very effective. 

Fields' ability to pick up yards with his legs has been what's transformed this Chicago offense into one of the highest scoring in the league over the last month. Bears are averaging well over 200 rushing yards/game over their last 6 games.

I just don't see him being as willing to run the ball if he's got a banged up shoulder. Not to mention, if he does, there's a good chance he reinjures it and has to leave the game. 

Problem for Chicago is they needs Fields and that offense to be great for them to be competitive, because their defense has been terrible since trading away Quinn and Smith. 

Lastly, this is a great buy-low spot on the Jets, whose last three games have come against the Patriots, Bills and Patriots. New York is also likely a little undervalued at home. Jets have played what has to be the toughest home schedule so far this season, as their 5 homes to this point have been against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots and Bills. Give me the Jets -4! 

11-27-22 Bengals -1 v. Titans Top 20-16 Win 100 133 h 59 m Show

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1

I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup. 

It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less. 

Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt. 

It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1! 

11-26-22 Notre Dame +6 v. USC 27-38 Loss -110 117 h 39 m Show

9* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Notre Dame +6 

I'll take my chances with Notre Dame as a 6-point dog against USC on Saturday. I just think there's too much value with the Irish, as I don't think the Trojans should be more than a 3-point favorite here. 

I just think this Notre Dame team is really good, but people don't think as highly on them because of those two ugly losses at home to Marshall and Stanford earlier this season. Irish have won 5 straight, which includes a 35-14 beatdown of Clemson. The only game during this win streak decided by fewer than 17 points is a 3-point win over Navy and they had a 35-13 lead at the half in that one. 

This defense of the Irish just really seems to step up the bigger the game. They were great in their opener against CJ Stroud and Ohio State and completely shutdown Clemson's offense. It would not surprise me if they made things very difficult on USC's Caleb Williams. If they can get stops, they can win this game, because the Trojans defense isn't very good and has to be a bit worn down after last week's track meet against UCLA that ended 48-45. Give me the Irish +6! 

11-26-22 Minnesota v. Wisconsin -3 Top 23-16 Loss -110 112 h 30 m Show

10* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR: Wisconsin Badgers -3

I absolutely love the Badgers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Badgers. Losses to Iowa in the last couple of weeks have really derailed both of these teams chances of making the Big 10 title game. 

The big difference is the Badgers loss to the Hawks came a couple weeks ago and the Gophers was last week. They were also much different losses. Iowa really was in control the majority of their game against Wisconsin. Minnesota was tied 10-10 with the Hawks and lost the game on a field goal with less than 30 seconds on the clock. 

I think the letdown for Wisconsin came in last week's game against Nebraska, where they barely squeaked out a 15-14 win. With that said, it's not like they didn't outplay the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin outgained Nebraska 318 to 171. I think they will be able to get refocused for this last game, especially given it's their final home of the season, which means senior day. 

On the flip side of this, I got a really hard time seeing the Gophers finding a way to find meaning in this game. That loss to Iowa hurt. They had everything to play and now have nothing and to make matter worse they have to go on the road to face a physical Wisconsin team in Madison. 

I'm also not really sure what this Minnesota team has done to get as much respect as they do. They are just 3-4 in their last 7 games with their 3 wins coming against Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern. Two of which were at home. 

It's also a Minnesota offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success and stopping the run is the strength of this Badgers defense. Give me Wisconsin -3! 

11-26-22 Rutgers +14.5 v. Maryland 0-37 Loss -110 109 h 16 m Show

8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +14.5

I'm going to take Rutgers +14.5 on the road against Maryland. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights catching over two touchdowns. No one is going to want anything to do with this Rutgers team after last week's 55-10 loss at home to Penn State, especially against a Maryland team that took Ohio State down to the wire and easily covered against the Buckeyes as 26.5-point underdogs. 

I believe it's created some exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights. There's a chance I'm dead wrong here and Rutgers is a complete no show, but throwing in the towel is not an option for a coach like Greg Schiano. I really think this Scarlet Knight team is going to show up with a big effort here. Knowing this is the last game of their season and losing the way they did last week, I can't see this team wanting to go out with another ugly loss. 

I actually think it's the Terps who are going to have the difficult time getting motivated for this game. They put everything they had into last week's game against Ohio State and they almost pulled off the massive upset. Maryland had the ball near midfield trailing by just 3 with about 6 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and just couldn't make the big play they needed down the stretch to get the win. 

I just don't think there's a lot to play for if you are Maryland, as they are already bowl eligible at 6-5. It's not like finishing 7-5 is going to get them to a much better bowl game. 

I also think this Rutgers defense will present some challenges for this Maryland offense. When the Terps are at their most dangerous offensively is when Taulia Tagovailoa is slinging it all over the field. Throwing the ball is not exactly something you want to do against this Scarlet Knights defense. Rutgers is only giving up 191 passing yards/game. 

I also wonder just how healthy Tagovailoa is coming into this game. He banged his knee on the final play against Ohio State and looked to be really bothered. I know they are saying it's just a bad bruise and he's going to play after practicing, but I got a hard time believing he's going to be 100% for this game. 

Let's also not forget that prior to the big game he had against Ohio State, he really struggled the previous two weeks against Penn State and Wisconsin. He completed just 11 of 22 attempts for 74 yards against the Nittany Lions and 10 of 23 for 77 yards against the Badgers. 

As long as Rutgers can generate some offense and I believe they will, they should have no problem keeping this within two touchdowns and it wouldn't shock me at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Scarlet Knights +14.5! 

11-25-22 Florida +10 v. Florida State 38-45 Win 100 93 h 16 m Show

9* NCAAF Friday Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER: Florida Gators +10

I will gladly take my chances with Florida cathing 10-points on the road against Florida State. I just think this is a few too many for the Gators to be catching in this one. I get that Florida is just 6-5 and are coming off a 7-point loss at Vandy as a 14-point favorite. I just think there's a different level of focus and intensity for Florida when they play the Seminoles. What did that game against the Commodores really mean to the Gators. They were 6-4 going into that game completely out of it in the SEC.

Their 4 previous losses were against Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia. The loss to the Wildcats came off that HUGE win over Utah in Week 1 (No one was giving Florida a shot in that game), they lost by just 5 on the road to the Vols and were up early on LSU before losing by just 10. 

I think Florida is going to feel disrespected being a 10-point dog here. FSU is a good team, but this is a Gators team that was only a 11-point dog at Tennessee. Yes, the Seminoles have a great early season win (on a neutral field) against LSU, but they were a missed extra point in the final seconds from going to OT and the Tigers had all the momentum. Their next best win is a 35-31 win at Louisville and then either a win at Miami or Syracuse. They lost by 10 at home to Wake Forest, lost to NC State on the road and while they lost by just 6 at home to Clemson, the Tigers led 34-14 going into the 4th quarter of that game. 

I really like the Gators to keep this within 10 and I will definitely have some on Florida to win outright. Give me the Gators +10! 

11-25-22 UCLA v. California +10.5 35-28 Win 100 90 h 59 m Show

8* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Cal Golden Bears +10.5

I'll take my chances with Cal as a 10.5-point home dog against UCLA on Friday. This is just one of those late season games where you got to ignore the stats and just look at the situation. This is an absolute play against spot on UCLA. 

It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Bruins. First it was a shocking 28-34 loss at home to Arizona as a 20-point favorite, then came the ultimate dagger last week in their 45-48 loss at home to rival USC. That game against the Trojans was a must-win for UCLA to have a shot at making the Pac-12 title game. 

Had the Bruins won that game, UCLA would have been in a 4-way tie for 2nd with USC, Washington and Utah. Which ultimately would have made this a win and get in scenario to the Pac-12 title game, as they would have beat all 3 of the teams they were tied with head-to-head. 

It's a very similar scenario to what we saw with Ole Miss last week and why I didn't think twice about taking Arkansas in that game. The only mistake I made was not betting more on that one. It's why you can be assured I'll have some on the Cal money line on top of a big play on the spread. 

Lastly, this is not a horrible Cal team. The Golden Bears might be just 4-7, but they a 7-point loss to Notre Dame, 7-point loss to Washington and a 6-point loss to USC. This team had lost 6-straight prior to last week's big win over rival Stanford. i just got to think the Golden Bears are sick of losing and will be motivated despite not being able to win to get to a bowl game. A top 20 opponent on your home field. Give me Cal +10.5! 

11-25-22 NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina Top 30-27 Win 100 89 h 58 m Show

10* NCAAF Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH: NC State +6.5

I'll take my chances with NC State as a 6.5-point road dog against in-state rivale North Carolina. I always like to lean towards the dog in these rivalry games and it just so happens this Tar Heels team is one that I'm looking to fade. UNC to me is just way overrated. They are 9-2, but have been very fortunate in close games. Out of their 9 wins, 5 have come by 3-points or less. 

This is also a Tar Heels team that the public likes to back because of the great quarterback play they are getting out of Drake Maye. He's special, but he's just one guy. UNC has had to win a lot of close games because their defense can't get stops and that poor defense is why I really like NC State in this matchup. 

It's been a rough go for the Wolfpack since losing starting quarterback Devin Leary, but whether it's MJ Morris or Ben Finley, I like this NC State offense to move the ball against this Tar Heels defense. 

I also think this Wolfpack defense can get some stops against Maye and company. We saw UNC's offense get shutout in the 2nd half of last week's shocking loss at home to Georgia Tech as Maye really struggled to get going. NC State's defense is really good. They are only giving up 18.7 ppg vs teams that on average score 25.9. Opposing QBs are also completing just 57.5% of their attempts against them. You know they are going play their hearts out in this one against their rivals. Give me the Wolfpack +6.5! 

11-24-22 Patriots +3 v. Vikings Top 26-33 Loss -115 69 h 36 m Show

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team. 

Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win. 

They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture. 

Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3! 

11-24-22 Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss 24-22 Win 100 68 h 24 m Show

9* NCAAF - Egg Bowl ATS NO-BRAINER: Mississippi State +2.5

I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a 2.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Thanksgiving Day. I faded the Rebels last week as a short road favorite against Arkansas, as I just thought it was a brutal spot for Ole Miss coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Alabama. Not just because it was Alabama, but that loss also put to rest any hope they had of winning the SEC West. 

Sometimes losses like that linger for just a week and a team bounces back the following week. Other times, like I think we have here, a loss like that derails a team, especially when it comes late in the year. Not only are they still licking their wounds, but now news has come out that Lane Kiffin is in serious talks about taking over the head coaching vacancy at Auburn. I just can't imagine that news is sitting all that well with this team. 

With all that said, it was going to be a tough matchup here for Ole Miss regardless against the Bulldogs. I have to think Mississippi State is going to be pretty pumped up for this game. The Bulldogs are 0-2 in the Egg Bowl under head coach Mike Leach and it's not like they haven't played the Rebels tough in those defeats. In fact, they have outgained the Rebels in both losses under Leach. Give me Mississippi State +2.5! 

11-20-22 Cowboys -1 v. Vikings Top 40-3 Win 100 73 h 26 m Show

10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1

I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas. 

I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. 

It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1! 

11-20-22 Raiders v. Broncos -2.5 22-16 Loss -120 73 h 16 m Show

8* NFL - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. I can't believe I'm playing Denver, as there's not much to like about with how this team has performed in 2022. Russell Wilson just hasn't lived up to the hype at all. That's just it. This is more of a play against the Raiders than it is a play on the Broncos. 

Las Vegas is an absolute mess. After last week's 20-25 loss at home to the Colts, who had an ESPN analyst as their interim head coach, the Raiders fell to 2-7 and whatever hope they had of turning this season around and getting back in the playoff picture was completely lost. Just look at how Derek Carr was crying after the game. He knows this season is over and to make matters worse he basically called out some of his teammates for not giving it their all. 

I just don't see how the Raiders aren't a bigger dog on the road in this game. As bad as Wilson and the Broncos have been, let's not forget that the one game Russ actually looked like his old self was an earlier matchup against the Raiders. 

I also think we saw some promising signs in last week's loss to the Titans. Tennessee is playing as well as any team in the league right now and the Broncos led the majority of that game and outgained the Titans 313-307. They completely shutdown Henry, limiting him to just 53 yards on 19 carries and if you can keep the Raiders from getting their run game going they don't offer much of a threat, especially with Waller and Renfrow sidelined. This is also a Denver defense that has held each of their last 5 opponents under 20 points. Give me the Broncos -2.5! 

11-20-22 Jets v. Patriots -3 3-10 Win 100 70 h 14 m Show

9* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3

I'll take my chances with the Patriots as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets. I just don't understand the lack of respect for New England in this one. These two teams played back in Week 8 in New York with the Patriots winning that game 22-17. They won that game without the offense being able to get anything going, which I think is why some people are liking the Jets to get their revenge. 

Not me, especially not with the horrible passing conditions. It's going to be hard for either team to move the ball thru the air, as winds are expected to be a minimum of 25 mpg with gust pushing 40 mph. 

This game is going to come down to who can have more success running the ball. If you remember back to that Week 8 matchup, almost all of New York's offense came thru the air. The Jets had just 51 rushing yards. New England on the other hand had 127. 

I just think it really gives a strong edge to the Patriots, especially with the game this time being played in New England. I also feel that while both teams have had two weeks to prepare after a bye week, that's a bigger edge to the Pats, who have the much better coaching staff. Give me New England -3! 

11-20-22 Eagles v. Colts +7 17-16 Win 100 70 h 58 m Show

8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +7

I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 7-point home dog against the Eagles on Sunday. While everyone was bashing Indy's decision to go out and hire ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach, I thought it presented a great spot to back the Colts against the Raiders and Indy delivered in a 25-20 win as a 5-point dog. 

I could be stepping in it here with Indy this week against an Eagles team that will be looking to bounce back from their 21-32 upset loss at home to the Commanders on Monday Night Football, which put to rest all the talk about this team going undefeated. So be it. I just think there's too much value to pass up at this price. 

It's not as easy as people think for a team to rebound after that first loss to snap a long winning streak. Philly is also in a tough spot here having to play on a short week. 

As for Saturday, say what you want about his lack of experience and I'm sure there will be those that point to the fact that it was the Raiders who they beat. I get it, but to me it was more than that. This looked more like the Colts team we expected to see from the start of the year. 

Was it just a coincidence that in Saturday's first game as coach, Jonathan Taylor had a monster game with 147 yards on 22 attempts. His first 100+ yard performance since Week 1 against the Texans. Was it also a coincidence that Matt Ryan had one of his cleanest games of the year, getting hit just once the entire game while completing 21 of 28 attempts for 222 yards. 

Maybe so, but Saturday was a damn good offensive linemen in his day and he learned how to read defenses from one of the best to ever do it at quarterback in Peyton Manning. If by chance he did figure something out with that offensive line, which was hands down the biggest thing that was holding this team back, the Colts aren't just going to be a great position to cover this spread, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me Indy +7! 

11-19-22 Utah v. Oregon +2 17-20 Win 100 56 h 19 m Show

8* NCAAF Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Oregon Ducks +2

I'll take my chances with Oregon as a 2-point home dog against Utah. I really like the Ducks to win this game regardless if Bo Nix ends up playing. Though I do feel pretty good about him suiting up. I know the loss last week to Washington as a 12-point favorite doesn't look good, but let's not ignore just how good this Ducks team has looked since that ugly blowout loss to Georgia in the opener. Oregon is still outscoring opponents on average by nearly 17.0 ppg in conference play. 

Yes, the Utes have got it going with 4 straight wins, but there's nothing to get excited about with the last two against Stanford and Arizona at home. The other two during this win streak were both games they could have easily lost, as they beat USC 43-42 and Washington State 21-17. 

One thing I really like here is the revenge angle for Oregon. If you remember last year, the Utes destroyed the Ducks 38-7 late in the regular-season and then came right back and did it again to them in the Pac-12 title game winning 38-10. This is a game Oregon has had circled on the calendar since the schedule was released and I just don't think they should be a dog in this spot. Give me the Ducks +2! 

11-19-22 USC v. UCLA +3 48-45 Push 0 54 h 55 m Show

8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: UCLA Bruins +3

I'll take my chances with UCLA as a 3-point home dog against USC in Saturday's big Pac-12 matchup. The betting public is going to be all over the Trojans at this price, especially with the Bruins coming into this game off that shocking 28-34 home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite. 

I could be dead wrong here with UCLA, but I just think the bad loss to the Wildcats had a lot to do with this game being on deck for them. You also got to give Arizona credit, as their offense came out firing. I think it's really created some great value with the Bruins in this one, as I think they should 100% be favored to win this game at home. 

I've just not been overly impressed with this USC team. Yes, the offense is good, but the defense has been spotty and it's tough to win on the road when you can't get stops in a big game like this. We have seen UCLA step up in very similar spots as a small home dog this season. They beat Washington 40-32 as a 2.5-point dog and the very next week knocked off UTAH 42-32 as a 3.5-point home dog. Give me the Bruins +3! 

11-19-22 Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 27-42 Win 100 53 h 22 m Show

9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5

I'm going to take the Arkansas Razorbacks as a 2.5-point home dog against the No. 14 ranked Ole Miss Rebels. In these final couple weeks of the regular-season, I think you have to focus a little less on stats and records and put a lit more emphasis on the motivational level of teams. 

It's 100% why I'm taking Arkansas at what looks to be a bad line against Ole Miss. The spot here simply couldn't be worse for the Rebels. Not only is Ole Miss coming off a monster game against Alabama, which was easily their biggest game on the schedule when it came out, their inability to hold to a 7-point 2nd half lead in a 24-30 loss to the Crimson Tide eliminated any hopes they may have had of making the SEC title game, as that loss punched LSU's ticket to Atlanta in the first week of December. 

I just don't see the Rebels being able to pick themselves up off the mat, especially on the road in what is going to be a hostile environment Saturday night under the lights at Razorback Stadium. I'm also not convinced Ole Miss is as good as what people think. A lot of people will want to give them props for playing Alabama tough, but that couldn't have been a worse spot for the Crimson Tide, coming off of that OT loss at LSU which all but ended their playoff hopes. 

Some might want to argue that Arkansas could also be poised for a letdown coming off a close 10-13 loss at home to SEC West frontrunner LSU, but this is a pretty big game for the Hogs. Arkansas still needs one more win to become bowl eligible and a road game at Missouri to close out the season is far from a lock. I also think it's a little easier for teams to bounce back off a tough loss when they are playing at home in prime time. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5! 

11-19-22 Wisconsin -10 v. Nebraska 15-14 Loss -110 46 h 33 m Show

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Wisconsin Badgers -10

I'll take my chances with the Badgers as a 10-point road favorite against Nebraska. I don't see the Cornhuskers putting up much of a fight in this one. With last week's 3-34 loss at Michigan, Nebraska has no shot at being bowl eligible. On the flip side of this, Wisconsin is sitting at 5-5 and still needing one more win to make sure they get a bowl invite. 

I think there's some value here with the Badgers after last week's 10-24 loss at Iowa. The score makes it look like Wisconsin was outmatched. That wasn't the case. In fact, they outgained the Hawkeyes 227-146. Iowa has scoring drives of 17, 2, 18 and 27 yards. 

Yes, the offense for Wisconsin wasn't very good, but expect them to be much better on that side of the ball against a bad Nebraska defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 29.9 ppg and 439 ypg. They are also not good at stopping the run, which is the one thing you have to be able to do to slow this Wisconsin offense down. Nebraska is giving up 192 rush yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of the ball, this Wisconsin defense is really good and have really played well when facing some of the bad offenses in the Big 10. This Nebraska offense is not good. The Cornhuskers have scored a whopping 25 points combined over their last 3 games. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Wisconsin to win here by double-digits. Give me the Badgers -10! 

11-19-22 Illinois +18 v. Michigan Top 17-19 Win 100 46 h 9 m Show

10* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Illinois Fighting Illini +18

I love the Fighting Illini as 18-point dogs against Michigan on Saturday. I just think there's a ton of value with Illinois at this price. Some of the value definitely stems from the fact that the Fighting Illini come into this game off back-to-back upset losses at home. First it was a 15-23 setback against Michigan State as a 16-point favorite and then last week they lost 24-31 to Purdue as a 6-point favorite. 

On the flip side, there's no question there's a tax being put on this Michigan team given their perfect record and them having covered their last two games. 

Even though Illinois has come back to reality from their great start, which saw them open up the season 7-1, I still think this is a very good football team. I really like how they matchup with Michigan, especially given the less than ideal scoring conditions. 

The Fighting Illini feature a very good defense. They come into this game allowing 12.5 ppg, 250 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. To me they are very similar team to that of Iowa, who only lost by 13 to Michigan earlier this season. 

This is also a game that just doesn't figure to see a ton of scoring, which is why I think the 18 is so valuable. I'm not so sure either team will even get into the 20s. Winds are expected to be a constant 15+ mph with gusts pushing 30 mph. The wind chill for this game will be in the teens. 

On top of all that, Michigan just so happens to have their biggest game of the season looming next week with a road game against Ohio State, which many believe is going to be a playoff elimination game. All the Wolverines care about is getting out of this game with a win, where Illinois has nothing to lose and will be out to make a massive statement. Give me the Fighting Illini +18! 

11-19-22 TCU v. Baylor +2.5 Top 29-28 Win 100 46 h 38 m Show

10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Baylor +2.5

I'll take my chances with Baylor as a 2.5-point home dog against undefeated and No. 4 ranked TCU. I will say that I was really impressed with the Horned Frogs in last week's win over Texas. It was one of the few times they didn't have to have some massive rally late to sneak out a win. 

However, that performance is not going to be enough to keep me from betting against them again this week. The line here really says it all. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Baylor in this game. Not only do you have TCU undefeated and in the 4-team playoff, but the Bears are coming off an ugly 3-31 loss at home to K-State as a short 2.5-point favorite. This line screams to back the Horned Frogs laying less than a field goal, which is exactly why I'm not just taking the points with Baylor but loading up on this one. Give me the Bears +2.5! 

11-17-22 Titans +3.5 v. Packers Top 27-17 Win 100 10 h 41 m Show

10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10.

Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game. 

This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game. 

This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5! 

11-17-22 SMU v. Tulane -3 24-59 Win 100 9 h 41 m Show

8* NCAAF Thursday Night ATS MASSACRE: Tulane Green Wave -3

I'll take my chances with Tulane as a mere 3-point home favorite against SMU in Thursday's only college football game out of the American Athletic. I think we are getting a very favorable price here with the Green Wave, who are in a prime bounce back spot after last week's 31-38 upset loss at home to UCF. I also think we are seeing SMU come into this game getting a little too much love having covered their last 4. 

One big thing to note about Tulane's poor showing last week against the Knights is they just didn't have an answer for UCF dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee on the ground. Plumlee racked up 176 rushing yards on just 18 attempts and the Knights went on to pile on 336 rushing yards. 

This is a much better matchup for the Green Wave defense. SMU has a great QB of their own in Tanner Mordecai, but he's more of a pure pocket passer. Mordecai has just 105 rushing yards on the season. 

The Mustangs offense really lives on big plays in the passing game, which plays right into the strength of the Tulane defense, which is 18th best in the country in limiting explosive pass plays. I also don't think it's going to be ideal passing conditions. While temps are expected in the low 50s to high 40s, wind chills will be in the high 30s with close to 15 mph wind and a chance of rain. 

The other big thing here is this SMU defense is one of the worst in the country. The Mustangs come in giving up 32.6 ppg, 446 yards/game and 6.0 yards/play. Tulane is known more for their defense, but are scoring a healthy 32.7 ppg with 416 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. Give me the Green Wave -3! 

11-16-22 Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois 29-23 Win 100 10 h 59 m Show

9* NCAAF Wednesday MACtion ATS SLAUGHTER: Miami (OH) +1.5

I'll take my chances with Miami (OH) as a 1.5-point road dog against Northern Illinois. I really think the Redhawks should be favored in this one and I'm shocked the majority of the tickets are coming in on the Huskies in this one. 

Northern Illinois is way down this year. The Huskies are just 3-7 thru their first 10 games. They have little to nothing to play for with no shot at bowl eligibility. Miami (OH) has lost 3 of their last 4, but are 4-6 and still in a position to where they can win their last two games to get to bowl eligibility. 

It's also a great matchup for the Redhawks. Miami (OH) has a big time talent at quarterback in Brett Gabbert, who just recently returned from injury. He had one of his best games last time out against a very good Ohio team. He now faces an awful Northern Illinois defense that ranks 114th against the pass. 

Huskies are down their starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi and there's been a pretty significant drop off from him to the backups. This is also a Northern Illinois team that wants to run at all costs and is facing a Redhawks defense that has been the best in the MAC at stopping the run. Miami (OH) is giving up just 116 rush yards/game and a mere 3.3 yards/carry. Give me the Redhawks +1.5! 

11-15-22 Bowling Green +16.5 v. Toledo 42-35 Win 100 10 h 40 m Show

8* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Bowling Green Falcons +16.5

I'll take my chances with Bowling Green as a 16.5-point road dog against Toledo in Tuesday's MAC action. This might seem like a fair price given how bad the Falcons looked in last Wednesday's 6-40 loss to Kent State as a mere 2.5-point home dog, but let's not forget that Bowling Green had won 3 straight prior to that loss. 

I also think it's a great spot to fade Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a monster game at home last week against Ball State, which was essentially for first place in the MAC West. Toledo was able to score late to sneak out a 28-21 win, which secured them a spot in the MAC Championship Game in a couple weeks. So while it is their final home game of the season, there's no real incentive here for the Rockets to lay it all on the line against the Falcons. 

It's the exact opposite for Bowling Green, who comes in at 5-5, still needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. With a road game against Ohio the only other game left on the schedule, this has to feel like a must-win for the Falcons. Not saying they pull off the upset, but I like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me Bowling Green +16.5! 

11-13-22 Colts +5 v. Raiders 25-20 Win 100 72 h 3 m Show

8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +5

I'm going to take my chances with the Colts as a 5-point road dog against the Raiders. I could be dead wrong here, but I just can't help myself but to take the points with Indy in this game. There's so much negativity going on with the Colts right now, as everyone thinks they are nuts for hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. 

I just don't think it's as big a deal as what it's being made out to be. How much worse can it really get with Indy? Unless there's some behind the scenes initiative to tank for a better draft pick, I actually think we are going to get one of the best efforts of the season from Indy. I think a coaching change adds a sense of urgency across the board and this Colts defense, which has been playing really well, should bring their "A" game in this one. 

As for the offense. I don't know if Saturday can really do a lot given how bad the offensive line is, but if there's a guy that can maybe work some magic with an offensive line, it might be him. He was an outstanding center, who learned how to decipher defenses from one of the best to ever do it in Peyton Manning. 

Lastly, this Raiders team is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They just put Waller and Renfroe on IR and had one of their better linebackers retire midseason. If anyone isn't deserving of being a head coach it's Josh McDaniels. I just don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Raiders team and wouldn't be shocked at all if Indy won this game rather convincingly. Give me the Colts +5! 

11-13-22 Saints v. Steelers +1.5 10-20 Win 100 71 h 29 m Show

9* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5

I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 1.5-point home dog against the New Orleans Saints. I'm a little bit surprised the Steelers are a home dog in this one. I get Pittsburgh is just 1-6 in their last 7 games, but it's not like New Orleans has been that much better. The Saints are 2-6 in their last 8 and 3-6 ATS for the season. New Orleans has also not won a road game since their 27-26 win at Atlanta in Week 1, which they had no business winning, as they were down by as many as 16 in the 4th quarter. 

They will be at a huge rest disadvantage in this game, as they will be on a short week after playing the Ravens on MNF in Week 9, while Pittsburgh hasn't played in two weeks after their bye in Week 9. 

Pittsburgh is also expected to getting back their best player in defensive end T.J. Watt. The record is night and day with Watt on the field for the Steelers. The one game he played this year, they went on the road and beat the Bengals as a 7-point dog. 

They are also expected to get back safety Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency and was a standout in training camp. Kazee hasn't played a game since injuring his forearm in the final preseason game. Corner Levi Wallace should also be back from a shoulder injury and newly acquired corner William Jackson III could make his debut with the team. 

I think with just Watt coming back this Steelers defense quickly becomes one of the Top 5 defensive teams in the league. I also look at how much trouble the Saints offensive line had blocking an aging Justin Houston last week. No way are they going to be able to keep Watt out of their backfield. 

As for the Steelers offense, I know it's not been anything to write home about this year. However, it's also not been a very favorable slate in terms of the caliber of defenses played. Pittsburgh has faced one team, the Dolphins, who rank outside the Top 15 in total defense.

Just to give you a comparison, the Saints have played 7 of their 9 games against teams who rank 20th or worse in total defense, 6 of which rank in the bottom 10. 

New Orleans has allowed 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being the Raiders, who they shutout a couple weeks ago. The wrong team is favored in this game. Give me the Steelers +1.5! 

11-13-22 Broncos v. Titans -1.5 10-17 Win 100 69 h 57 m Show

9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Tennessee Titans -1.5

I will take my chances with the Titans as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. I think there's a perception here that Tennessee is going to suffer a letdown coming off that emotional loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Plus, there's the perception that Denver has a big edge here coming off of their bye week. 

I'm just not buying it. I just don't see how this Denver offense is going to be able to get anything going against this Tennessee defense. It's crazy how little respect this Titans team has gotten, despite what they have accomplished over the last few seasons under Vrable. 

I don't think Denver is going to be able to stop Henry, which is the one thing you have to be able to do if you are going to slow down Tennessee's offense. I also have some concerns with the mindset of this Broncos defense after the team traded away star pass rusher Chubb. Give me the Titans -1.5! 

11-13-22 Seahawks +3 v. Bucs 16-21 Loss -120 65 h 23 m Show

8* NFL Seahawks/Bucs Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +3

I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 3-point underdog against the Bucs in Sunday's early game in Munich. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I backed the Bucs and got the win last week against the Rams, but that was an extremely fortunate win and cover for Tampa Bay. 

It just isn't getting any better for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. Their inability to run the football and poor offensive line play continues to be a major problem. Now they face a Seattle defense that has went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to a very competent team on that side of the ball. In their last 4 games the Seahawks have held the Cardinals to 9, Chargers to 23, Giants to 13 and the Cardinals to 13. 

On the flip side, Geno Smith and the Seattle offense continue to impress. Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. I know the numbers look good for Tampa Bay's defense, but this is not as good a unit as people think. They have really benefited lately by playing a bunch of bad offenses. Give me the Seahawks +3! 

11-12-22 Texas A&M v. Auburn -1 10-13 Win 100 52 h 42 m Show

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Auburn Tigers -1

I'll take my chances with Auburn as a mere 1-point home favorite against Texas A&M. I played on the Tigers last week as a 13-point road dog against Mississippi State. They ended up losing that game 33-39 in OT. It was an inspired effort by Auburn, especially given they went down 17-0 and trailed 24-6 at the half. 

Some might say they are due for a letdown after laying it all the line in the first game after Harsin was fired. That might be the case and if so, we probably won't get there with the Tigers in this one. However, I don't see this team not showing up with a big effort in this game. I really think interim head coach Cadillac Williams has really lit a fire under this team and last week's rally will have them motivated to start stronger. It's also a game under the lights on a Saturday night, which is a big deal to these kids and also tends to lead to some pretty wild crowds. 

We are also betting on Auburn against an absolute dumpster fire in Texas A&M. I think what little fight was left in this Aggies team was sucked dry a couple of weeks ago in their heartbreaking 28-31 loss at home to Ole Miss. They certainly didn't look like a team willing to fight in last week's 17-point home loss to Florida, getting outscored 21-0 in the 2nd half. 

What's the incentive for Texas A&M at this point in the season. Sure they need to win out to be bowl eligible, but a lot of these big programs would rather miss out on a bowl game than go to some crappy bowl against another bad team and have to keep practicing for another month. Give me Auburn -1! 

11-12-22 North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3.5 Top 36-34 Loss -110 52 h 1 m Show

10* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5

I really like Wake Forest as a 3.5-point home favorite against North Carolina. I'm sure a lot of people will be scratching their heads at this line, as the Tar Heels come into this game with a 8-1 record and are ranked No. 15 in the country. No way they should be getting over a field goal against an unranked Demon Deacons team. I think it's more than warranted and probably should be more. 

I just don't think the Tar Heels are anywhere close to as good as what people think. Yes, they have a great offense and a really talented QB in Drake Maye, but they have played a very easy schedule and their defense isn't very good. 

In their 4 non-conference games they played an FCS school (FAMU) and two Sun Belt teams that gave them all they could handle. They only beat App State by 2, needing all 63 points the offense put up and beat Georgia State by just 7. They also played a Notre Dame team at home and lost to the Irish 32-45. 

Their 5-0 in ACC play, but the only win against a team that currently has a winning record in ACC play is against Duke and they only won that game 38-35, needing a last second TD to win. 

I know Wake Forest is just 2-3 in conference play, but they don't have all those bad Coastal teams on their schedule. Their 3 losses are to Clemson, Louisville and NC State. The latter two coming in their last 2 games on the road. 

I think getting back home and UNC coming into this game getting all the hype makes this the perfect spot to jump on the Demon Deacons. I think Sam Hartman and that WF offense are going to have a field day in this game. I also think their defense might surprise some people with how well they defend Maye and that explosive Tar Heels pass attack. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.5! 

11-12-22 Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5 45-19 Loss -110 54 h 46 m Show

9* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Mississippi State Bulldogs +16.5

I'll take my chances with Mississippi State catching 16.5-points at home against No. 1 ranked Georgia. I think there's a lot to like about the Bulldogs in this matchup, especially at this price. I think a lot of people are once again convinced Georgia is the best team in the country after last week's convincing win over then No. 1 ranked Tennessee. That kind of hype is going to come with a tax in the betting market. 

I also think people are slow to want to back Mississippi State in this game given how bad they looked a few weeks back in their 6-30 loss at Alabama. The biggest thing you got to keep in mind with that bad showing against the Crimson Tide is the game was played in Alabama and on top of that was a prime time night game. 

This is just not a great road team. Bulldogs have also lost at LSU 31-16 and at Kentucky 27-17. It's a different story at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. It's not easy winning on the road in the SEC and Starkville is no easy place to play under the lights on a Saturday night. This crowd is going to be electric to try and get their team to upset the Bulldogs. 

This will also be just the second true road game for Georgia since the middle of September. The only other true road game during this stretch was at Missouri and if you remember they did play well having to rally to beat the Tigers 26-22. 

You also got to factor in the potential letdown for Georgia coming off that big game against the Volunteers. That win all but locked them into the SEC title game, as they now hold the tie-breaker over Tennessee for the spot in the SEC East. I get no loss is a good loss in college football with how little of margin for error these teams have to make the playoffs, but a loss would not end their season. I just think it's the perfect flat spot for the Bulldogs and it's not like we can't have them win the game. Give me the Bulldogs +16.5! 

11-12-22 Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 28-43 Win 100 51 h 19 m Show

8* NCAAF Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5

I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a 3.5-point home favorite against Kansas. I'm still trying to process how Texas Tech failed to cover for me last week. We played the Red Raiders as a 9-point road dog against TCU. Texas Tech went into the 4th quarter of that game leading 17-13 with TCU's only TD in the game coming on a 82-yard fumble return for a score. In the blink of an eye the Horned Frogs went from trailing to leading 34-17 and would go on to win the game 34-24. 

I just feel that loss combined with Kansas coming off an impressive 37-16 win at home over Oklahoma State, we are getting a really good price on the Red Raiders in this one. Kansas was the talk of college football with their 5-0 start, but they had lost 3 in a row before last week's win over the Cowboys and let's not forget Oklahoma State didn't have starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

They were also very fortunate to only give up 16 points in that game, as the Cowboys had over 400 yards of total offense. Keep in mind the previous 3 games during the losing streak, KU had given up 35 or more points. 

Texas Tech's offense has been held in check the last couple of weeks against Baylor and TCU, but are poised to have a big game here. The Jayhawks are not good at defending teams who can attack their secondary and the passing game is what makes this Red Raiders offense go. 

Not saying the Texas Tech defense will shutdown a good Kansas offense, I just don't think the Jayhawks will be able to do enough offensively to keep it within the number. Give me Texas Tech -3.5! 

11-12-22 Wisconsin v. Iowa 10-24 Loss -110 48 h 37 m Show

9* NCAAF Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Wisconsin Badgers PK

I paid the price for betting against the Hawkeyes last week with Purdue, as Iowa really dominated that game from the start and would cruise to a 24-3 win. It's not going to stop me from taking the Badgers at a pick'em in Iowa City on Saturday. 

I'm just not convinced this Iowa offense has figured out their run game. Yes, they have rushed for 173 yards and 184 yards in their last two games against Northwestern and Purdue, but even with those strong showings they come into this game averaging just 103 rushing yards/game and 3.2 yards/carry.

They are not going to have the same advantage in the trenches on offense against the Badgers as they did against the Wildcats and Boilermakers. This Wisconsin defense is only giving up 20.6 ppg, 327 ypg and 4.1 yards/play and that's with them giving up 52 points and 539 yards in one game against Ohio State. 

I understand that this isn't an ideal matchup for the Badgers offense either, as they are limited on that side of the ball and trying to run the ball against this Iowa defense plays right into their strength. Still I think they will have the easier time of the two teams sustaining drives. 

It's also historically been good to fade Iowa after two great showings. They are just 4-12 ATS under Ferentz after leading in their previous 2 games by 14+points at the half. Hawkeyes are also just 12-25 (32%) ATS in their last 37 home games after holding each of their previous 2 opponents to 7 or fewer points in the 1st half. Give me Wisconsin PK! 

11-11-22 East Carolina +5.5 v. Cincinnati 25-27 Win 100 26 h 25 m Show

9* NCAAF Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER: East Carolina +5.5

I'll take my chances with the Pirates as a 5.5-point road dog against Cincinnati. I just think the market is off on these two teams, which has created the value here with East Carolina. The Pirates have really impressed me in 2022. They are 6-3 and come in having won their last 3. They could also easily be 8-1, as they should have beat NC State at home in their opener and lost by just 3-points at home to Navy. They are 6-3 ATS as well, which shows just how undervalued they have been. 

As for Cincinnati, you just knew this team was going to struggle to cover the numbers they were going to be asked to lay simply based on what this program was able to accomplish last year going undefeated and getting to playoffs, especially with all they lost. The Bearcats are just 2-6-1 ATS so far and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 5 games (0-4-1). 

I also look at the common opponents played and it too screams too many points for Cincinnati be laying. These two teams have played 3 common opponents. While both have gone 2-1 in those games, ECU is outscoring those teams on average by 13.7 ppg. Cincinnati is only outscoring them by 3.3 ppg. The defensive numbers being almost identical. Offense is where ECU really seems to have an edge and I think it's good enough to not only get them a cover but an outright win. Give me the Pirates +5.5! 

11-10-22 Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 15-25 Win 100 9 h 12 m Show

9* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers +2.5

I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. I'm not so sure the right team is favored in this game. It just feels like this line is a big overreaction to what we saw last week out of this Carolina team. The Panthers haven't been any good, but last week's 21-42 loss to the Bengals was arguably their worst showing of the season. The final score doesn't even do justice to how bad Carolina played, as Cincinnati had 35-0 lead at the half. 

It was so bad that it's like everyone is ignoring how the game played out between these two teams in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. A game Carolina ended up losing 34-37 in OT, yet would have won in regulation had D.J. Moore not took off his helmet and forced the PAT to be pushed back 15 yards (missed). They also had a 32-yard missed field goal in OT that would have won the game. 

NFL teams have a way of responding in a big way after an embarrassing loss like that and I think it definitely helps this game being in prime time, as that will also get them excited to play when there's really not much to play for. 

One last thing, I think this could be a tough spot for Atlanta. Not just playing on the road on just 3 days of rest, but coming off that gut-wrenching loss to the Chargers, where they forced a fumble late that looked to set them up for a game-winning field goal, only to have the player re-fumble the ball back to the Chargers, which set LA up for the game-winning field goal. Give me the Panthers +2.5! 

11-06-22 Rams v. Bucs -2.5 Top 13-16 Win 100 74 h 49 m Show

10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done. 

I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover. 

The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging. 

The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5! 

11-06-22 Panthers +7.5 v. Bengals 21-42 Loss -110 66 h 48 m Show

9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MITAKE: Carolina Panthers +7.5

I'll take my chances with the Panthers catching 7.5-points on the road against the Bengals. Carolina has looked like a different team since trading away McCaffrey and shockingly they have really improved on the ground since McCaffrey left. In the two games without him they have rushed for 173 yards against Tampa Bay and 169 yards against the Falcons. They should be able to keep that going against a Bengals defense that is giving up 126 rush yards/game and 4.4 yards/carry. 

The other big thing for me is the Bengals are being way overvalued without their top offensive weapon in Jamar Chase. In their first game without Chase, Cincinnati managed just 13 points and 229 yards of total offense against the Browns last week. Joe Burrow, who had just thrown for 459 yards the previous game against the Falcons, threw for just 193. Some of that was the Bengals offensive line not being able to keep the Browns out of the backfield, but I expect more of that against Brian Burns and the Panthers defensive front. I just think given the situation, 7.5 points is way too many. Give me Carolina +7.5! 

11-06-22 Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars 20-27 Loss -110 66 h 47 m Show

8* NFL Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5

I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Week 9. The line here really says it all, as we have Las Vegas laying points on the road after they just had arguably the worst showing of any team all season in last week's 24-0 loss at New Orleans. The Raiders didn't even get the ball past midfield until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. 

The key thing to note with that showing is Las Vegas was dealing with the flu bug and it's really the only thing that could explain that pitiful performance. The only other thing is if this team has just thrown in the towel on this season, but I can't see that being the case this early on. My money is on the Raiders to put that ugly showing behind them with one of their best showings of the season Sunday against a Jags team that just keeps finding ways to lose. Since their big 38-10 upset win at the Chargers back in Week 3, Jacksonville has proceeded to lose 6 straight games. 

In terms of talent, I don't think this one is that close. The Raiders are as talented of a 2-win team as you will find going into Week 9 of a season. I just trust them to find a way to win this game to save their season. Give me Las Vegas -1.5! 

11-05-22 Auburn +13 v. Mississippi State 33-39 Win 100 52 h 25 m Show

8* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Auburn Tigers +13

I'll take my chances with Auburn catching 13 on the road against Mississippi State. This is just one of my favorite situational handicaps in really all sports. That's backing the team who leading up to the game, fired their head coach. 

That's the storyline for Auburn in this one. Enough was enough, Brian Harsin was fired after last week's 27-41 loss at home to Arkansas. Sometimes a coaches style or personality just isn't a good fit and to me it felt like Harsin had lost the team maybe even before the season started. 

There's already talk about how the energy level is up with the team since Harsin was let go. The interim is former Auburn star running back Carnell Williams. A.K.A. as Cadillac. Tell me the kids aren't going to be fired up to play for him. 

Even with the Bulldogs coming off of a bye, I think Auburn will be the more motivated team in this one. Keep in mind Mississippi State lost a lot of their momentum leading into the bye. There was a buzz forming with this team after their 5-1 start and they went into the bye off back-to-back road losses to Kentucky and Alabama. 

Their only two wins in conference play have come against Arkansas, who is also way down, and Texas A&M, who was playing awful football at that time. 

For as bad as everyone wants to make Auburn out to be, they have really been competitive in SEC play outside of a road game against Georgia. They only lost by 4 at home to LSU, by 14 at Ole Miss and by 14 to Arkansas. I like them to keep it close and maybe even win outright. Give me the Tigers +13! 

11-05-22 Oklahoma State v. Kansas Top 16-37 Win 100 49 h 33 m Show

10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas Jayhawks PK

I love Kansas as a pick'em at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. There are just no easy games on the schedule in the Big 12. I can't remember a time it's been this even across the board in this conference in football. 

A big reason for that is the resurgent Jayhawks, who are off to a 5-3 start and figure to remain on an upward trajectory as long as Lance Leipold remains their head coach. I know Kansas has lost their last 3 games after that improbable 5-0 start, but one of those was a 7-point loss to TCU, who is the only undefeated team in the conference. The other two were road games against Oklahoma and Baylor. 

They also lost starting QB Jalon Daniels in the loss to TCU and he didn't play at all in the losses to the Sooners or Bears. He's back practicing with the team and all signs point to him returning. With that said, I still like KU if he were to sit, as backup Jason Bean has been every bit as good as Daniels throwing the ball. He's just not as big of a threat on the ground. 

This is also a Kansas team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. The Cowboys on the other hand are probably still trying to figure out what happened in last weeks 0-48 loss at K-State. I think the writing has been on the wall with this team not being as good as their record, as they have several close wins where they had to rally from behind. 

On top of that, it's no sure thing the Cowboys have starting quarterback, who was roughed up in garbage time in the loss to the Wildcats. Give me the Jayhawks Pk! 

11-05-22 Syracuse v. Pittsburgh -3.5 9-19 Win 100 48 h 27 m Show

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5

I'll take my chances with Pitt as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Orange. This is a line that simply doesn't look right. Syracuse is 6-2 and while they have lost their last two games, those losses did come to Clemson and Notre Dame. Pitt on the other hand is just 4-4 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in 4 of their last 5. Keep in mind Syracuse is still the No. 20 ranked team in the country. 

It would be one thing if this was closer to a pick'em. Everyone is going to be looking to back Syracuse catching a field goal plus the hook. Maybe the books are just overvaluing Pitt and we are stepping in it with the Panthers with this play, but I just don't think that's the case, especially this late into the season. The line to me, screams that the books are taking a pretty firm stance on the Panthers not just winning this game but winning it going away. 

I do question the mindset of this Syracuse team. They had that 6-0 start and got all these crazy thoughts they could win the ACC. Then they jump out that big lead on the road against Clemson and aren't able to finish the job. They follow that up with a bad showing at home against Notre Dame. Would it really be all surprising to see their woes carry over to the road against a Pitt team that I think is hungry for a win and a bit undervalued after playing two of the better ACC teams on the road in Louisville and UNC. 

It's also not easy moving the ball on this Panthers defense. Pitt is only giving up 352 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. They are allowing 3.9 yards/rush and a mere 56.7% completion rate. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, there's every reason to think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Panthers -3.5! 

11-05-22 West Virginia v. Iowa State -7 14-31 Win 100 48 h 26 m Show

9* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa State Cyclones -7

I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia. A lot of people might be scratching their heads to why the Cyclones are laying a full touchdown in this game. ISU comes into this game having lost their last 5 and in the process have struggled to get their offense going. 

While I do think the Cyclones will be better offensively than they have been, I'm not expecting them to go off for 40+ points. I think they win here by more than a touchdown because of their defense. Because this team has struggled to win games, I think people overlook just how good this ISU defense has been. The Cyclones come into this game giving up just 16.6 ppg and 296 ypg, which becomes even more impressive when you factor in their opponents on average are scoring 29.6 ppg and putting up 399 yards of total offense. 

Just to put that in comparison, WV is allowing 34.6 ppg, 418 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. These two teams have also played 3 common opponents (Kansas, Texas and Baylor) and in those games the Mountaineers are giving up 44.3 ppg, 485.7 ypg and 7.5 yards/play. ISU against those same 3 teams are allowing 23.0 ppg, 313.7 ypg and 5.2 yards/play. 

It's hard to win on the road with a bad defense when your offense isn't able to sustain drives. We kind of seen that with WV in their two Big 12 road games, where they lost 20-38 to Texas and 10-48 at Texas Tech. I expect more of the same problems for the Mountaineers in this one. Give me Iowa State -7! 

11-05-22 Penn State v. Indiana +14 45-14 Loss -110 48 h 24 m Show

8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Indiana Hoosiers +14

I'll take my chances with Indiana cashing as a 14-point home dog against Penn State on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many points for the Nittany Lions to be laying on the road in this spot. This is a massive letdown spot for Penn State coming off of last week's game against Ohio State. A game they ended up losing 31-44, but had a 21-16 lead with under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

Having already lost the head-to-head matchups with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, Penn State at 3-2 in Big 10 play is all but out of the picture for winning the East and playing in the Big Ten title game. At this program, that's really their only goal coming into the season and one they had to feel like they had a shot at reaching given their 5-0 start. 

I just think it will be tough for Penn State to pick themselves up off of the mat and Indiana is a team that no matter how limited they are on either side of the ball, will give you their best effort. It would be fitting for them to come into this game riding a 5-game losing streak and go out and win the game outright. 

They did lose by just 21 at home to Michigan and they have a 5-point loss to Maryland and a 7-point loss on the road to Rutgers. Their defense isn't great, but it's good at stopping the run and if they win up front on that side of the ball, they certainly get off of the field and not let Penn State run up the score. Give me the Hoosiers +14! 

11-05-22 Texas Tech +9 v. TCU 24-34 Loss -110 45 h 57 m Show

9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9

I'll take my chances with Texas Tech as a 9-point road dog against TCU. I really like this Texas Tech team. Even though I lost with them last week in an ugly loss at home to Baylor, I've won more than I've lost backing them this season. Not only that, but I think TCU is a bit overrated right now, at least in the betting market. 

Yes the Horned Frogs are 8-0, but it's not been them just dominating their opponents. Their last 4 wins, all conference games, have been decided by 10 points or less. Note that in their two wins by 10 points, they beat K-State 38-28 after trailing 10-28. They scored a garbage TD in the final seconds against WV last week to win that game by 10. TCU also has a 43-40 OT win over Oklahoma State where they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. They were also tied with Kansas with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

I just don't think TCU deserves to be laying more than a touchdown in this spot. Prior to last week's loss to Baylor, Texas Tech had outgained each of its previous 7 opponents. I just don't think the Red Raiders showed up to that game against Baylor with the right mindset. The defense didn't play up to their standards and the offense turned it over 4 times. I feel pretty good about this team responding with a much better mindset against TCU, who every team is  out to get right now. Give me the Red Raiders +9! 

11-05-22 Iowa v. Purdue -3.5 Top 24-3 Loss -105 45 h 60 m Show

10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Purdue Boilermakers -3.5

I'm going to lay the 3.5-points with Purdue at home against Iowa. Last week I cashed on Iowa -11 at home against Northwestern with one of my biggest bets of the weekend, as they cruised to a 33-13 win. I got no problem turning around and fading the Hawkeyes as a short road dog against the Boilermakers. 

The biggest reason I liked Iowa last week, was I loved the matchup for the Hawkeyes. Northwestern not only had a defense they could exploit, but I felt confident that the Wildcats offense would not be able to generate much of anything offensively. It played out even better than I expected with Iowa scoring a season-high 33-points and putting up 393 total yards, including a season-best 173 rushing yards. Northwestern's offense on the other hand managed just 177 total yards and 75 of those came on a garbage TD drive late in the 4th quarter. 

One thing I was a bit surprised about was Iowa's decision to stick with Spencer Petras at quarterback. It worked out, as Petras completed 21 of 30 attempts for 220 yards and a score, but I'm not buying for a second that he's magically figured this thing out. He to me is still one of the worst QBs in the country. 

I expect him and the Iowa offense to revert right back to what we grew accustomed to seeing this season. Purdue is not going to let them get the run game going. Boilermakers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry on the season and let's not forget that Iowa had just 154 rushing yards combined in their 3 previous games. I also want to point out that while Purdue secondary has struggled at times this year, opposing QBs are only completing 55.8% of their attempts against them. 

On the flip side of the ball, I like Purdue's chances of moving the ball against this stingy Iowa defense. Since Jeff Brohm came to West Lafayette back in 2017, Purdue's offense is averaging 25.6 points/game in 5 matchups with Iowa. That might not seem all that great, but keep in mind Iowa has allowed fewer than 20 ppg on the season in each of those 5 years. Purdue is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS under Brohm vs Iowa with 3 outright wins as a dog, including last year's 24-7 win as a 12-point road dog. 

This could also be an especially painful game for Iowa fans to watch. Purdue has averaged a staggering 310 passing yards/game under Brohm and it seems like it's always one guy that torches him. The last 3 years it was David Bell. This year it figures to be Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who is 2nd in the country in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and T-4th in receiving TDs. 

On top of all that, Purdue has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game coming off of their bye week. Give me the Boilermakers -3.5! 

11-03-22 Eagles v. Texans +13.5 Top 29-17 Win 100 10 h 30 m Show

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5

I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. 

The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. 

Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! 

11-03-22 Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina 28-35 Loss -107 9 h 46 m Show

9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Appalachian State -3 

I'll take my chances with the Mountaineers as a 3-point road favorite against Coastal Carolina. This is just one of those games where the line screams which side to take. You have a Coastal Carolina team that is 7-1 getting points on their home field against a App State team that is just 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS. That alone makes this an easy play for me to fade the public dog. 

I also feel like there's plenty of reason to like the Mountaineers in this matchup. Appalachian State has really looked good in their last two games, which have followed that ugly 24-36 loss at Texas State where they closed as a 19-point favorite. They crushed Georgia State 42-17 and did the same in a 42-3 win over Robert Morris. 

The offense for the Mountaineers looks more like the unit we expected to see all season, as they are back to pounding the rock on the ground with 691 rushing yards in their last 2 games. They will be facing a Chanticleers defense that has underperformed this year. Coastal Carolina is giving up 6.2 yards/play. Grayson McCall and that Chanticleer offense may be able to keep it close early on, but I just don't see their offense being able to keep pace over the course of 60 minutes. Give me the Mountaineers -3! 

11-02-22 Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 Top 35-22 Loss -115 19 h 0 m Show

10* NCAAF MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Northern Illinois Huskies -5.5

Give me Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point home favorite against Central Michigan. I see a ton of value with the Huskies laying anything less than a touchdown. If you just looked at the records, this might seem like a pretty fair fight, given both teams enter with a 2-6 record. I just don't see these two teams as equals. Northern Illinois is much better than their 2-6 record, while I feel the Chippewas are every bit as bad as their record. 

The Huskies have one loss by more than 10 points and that was to Toledo, who has shown to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year. The loss by 10 was to a SEC school in Vanderbilt. Every other loss has been by 1 score, including a mere 8-point loss at Kentucky and 3-point loss at Tulsa. Speaking of road games, it's worth noting Northern Illinois has played just two home games vs FBS schools and those were Vandy and Toledo. 

As for Central Michigan, the Chippewas are a complete mess offensively. They lost a ton of talent on the o-line from last year's team to the NFL. They also have suffered injuries at tackle, where they are extremely thin. Chippewas have also lost several skill guys. They had a linebacker playing running back in their last game and he could see snaps here if a couple guys listed as questionable can't play. Northern Illinois for the season is averaging just 380 ypg and 5.1 yards/play. They are averaging 3.7 yards/rush and completing just 57.2% of their pass attempts. 

I know Northern Illinois' defense hasn't been great, but this is an offense they should have success against. The d-line should have success against that make-shift Central Michigan line and the other two units feed off the d-line living in the backfield. Give me Northern Illinois -5.5! 

10-31-22 Bengals v. Browns +3.5 Top 13-32 Win 100 31 h 6 m Show

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5

I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. 

The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. 

On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. 

I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

10-30-22 Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys 29-49 Loss -110 71 h 6 m Show

8* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Chicago Bears +9.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 9.5-point road dog against the Cowboys. Not many times a team coming off a 33-14 win as a 8.5-point dog will stay undervalued, but that's exactly the case here with Chicago. The Bears are getting no love for their blowout win on the road against New England on Monday Night Football. 

Some of that has to do with what we have seen prior to that game from Chicago. A lot also has to do with the opponent being the Cowboys, who are one of the biggest public teams in the league. Not to mention Dallas has covered 5 of their last 6 and just won 24-6 as a 7-point favorite in Dak's first game back last week against the Lions. 

There was definitely value with Dallas when Dak was injured, as backup Cooper Rush played as well as you could have asked for. I know it was his first game back after a long layoff, but I was not impressed with Dak against a Lions defense he should have feasted on. If Detroit doesn't turn the ball over on 5 times in the 2nd half of that game, the Lions easily cover and potentially win outright. Keep in mind Detroit had 1st and Goal from the 1-yard line down just 6-10 in the 4th quarter and fumbled the ball on their first attempt to score. It was all downhill from there. 

It's not going to be any easier on the Cowboys offense against an underrated Bears defense. One that should only get better if Chicago continues to run the football like they have. After putting up 238 rushing yards against the Commanders, the Bears had 243 rushing yards on the road against a Belichick led defense that knew coming in they just needed to stop the run to keep that offense in check. Fields looked as comfortable as I have seen him and I'm willing to roll the dice at this price that he's able to build off that performance. Give me Chicago +9.5! 

10-30-22 Panthers +4 v. Falcons Top 34-37 Win 100 71 h 19 m Show

10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4

I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. 

Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. 

The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. 

I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. 

I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! 

10-30-22 Patriots -2.5 v. Jets Top 22-17 Win 100 71 h 4 m Show

10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. 

I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. 

Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. 

I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. 

All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5! 

10-29-22 Baylor v. Texas Tech -2 Top 45-17 Loss -110 75 h 11 m Show

10* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2

We cashed a big play on Texas Tech -6 at home in last week's 48-10 blowout win over West Virginia and will gladly fire right back with another big play on the Red Raiders as a mere 2-point home favorite against Baylor this week. 

I've been on Texas Tech a lot this year, as I continue to feel like they are one of the better teams no one talks about. Their 3 losses this year have all come on the road to teams that at the time were all ranked in the Top 25 (all 3 still are). You could argue the Red Raiders were the better team in all 3 of those losses. They outgained NC State 353 to 270, Kansas State 473 to 459 and Oklahoma State 527 to 434. 

In their lone two Big 12 home games they have had, they beat Texas 37-34, outgaining the Longhorns 479 to 428. They also outgained the Mountaineers by a staggering margin of 594 to 282 in their 38-point win last week. Every team Texas Tech has played this year, they have won the yardage battle. I just feel given this stat, there's no way they should be laying less than a field goal at home here against Baylor. 

The Bears are just 1-2 in true road games with the lone win coming against Iowa State. They lost by 6 at BYU, who has really fallen off of late and by 3 at West Virginia, who again just got annihilated by Texas Tech. Give me the Red Raiders -2! 

10-29-22 Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee 6-44 Loss -110 75 h 46 m Show

9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats +12.5

I will gladly take my chances with Kentucky as a 12.5-point road dog against Tennessee on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many for the Vols to be laying in this spot. Tennessee has really taken the SEC by storm early on in 2022. The Vols are 7-0 and with their 52-49 win over Alabama, there's plenty of talk about this team being good enough to dethrone Georgia in the SEC East. 

Well it just so happens that massive game against the Bulldogs is looming next week. I just have to think given how well it's been going for the Vols, they are going to have a tough time giving Kentucky their full attention in this game. Keep in mind a loss here and a win over Georgia and they are still in the drivers seat to make the SEC title game, as they would hold the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs. 

On the flip side of this, I got to believe the Wildcats are going to be jacked up for this game. Let's also not ignore just how close Kentucky is to being undefeated. In their 3-point loss at Ole Miss, they fumbled it away not once but twice in the redzone in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The other loss was to South Carolina, where star quarterback Will Levis didn't play. 

On top of all that, Kentucky has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week. We have seen the Vols struggle with what I feel are lessor teams than Kentucky, barely beating Pitt 34-27 and escaping with a 38-33 win over Florida. Neither of which they won the yardage battle. It would not surprise me at all if Kentucky were to pull off the upset. Give me the Wildcats +12.5! 

10-29-22 Missouri +4.5 v. South Carolina 23-10 Win 100 72 h 35 m Show

8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Missouri Tigers +4.5

I will gladly take the 4.5-points with Missouri on the road against South Carolina. I just feel like this is a great spot to sell-high on the Gamecocks. South Carolina comes into this game having won 4 straight and all the sudden ranked No. 25 in the country. While the Gamecocks are by no means a bad team, I also don't think they one of the 25 best teams in the nation. 

South Carolina's 3 non-conference wins are against Georgia State, Charlotte and S Carolina St (FCS). In their two losses they lost by 14 at Arkansas and by 41 at home to Georgia. Their last two wins have come in SEC play, but one of those was against Kentucky without star quarterback Will Levis and the other was last week's win at home over a Texas A&M team that is in shambles. 

To me I just think it has the Gamecocks way overvalued here, as I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal against a Missouri team that has flashed some serious potential of late. While the Tigers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and the only win being by a mere 3-points at home against Vandy, They lost by just 3 at Auburn, gave Georgia the scare of a life in a 4-point home loss and lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog at Florida. Missouri has been a dog 3 times in SEC play and covered all 3. 

South Carolina hasn't even been a favorite in a single SEC game up to this point. They were 9-point dogs at Arkansas, 25-point dogs at home to Georgia, 4-point dogs at Kentucky without Levis and 3-point dogs at home to Texas A&M. Simply put, they got no business laying more than field goal here. In fact, I like Missouri to win this game outright. Give me the Tigers +4.5! 

10-29-22 Florida +23 v. Georgia 20-42 Win 100 71 h 18 m Show

8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Gators +23

I'll take my chances with Florida covering as a 23-point dog against Georgia on Saturday. This is one of the bigger rivalries in college football and is held annually on a neutral field. I just feel like given how much this game means to the Gators, easily their biggest game on the schedule coming into this year, there's just too much value to pass up at this price. 

You don't want to completely ignore the stats, but I do think they are less of a factor when handicapping a rivalry game of this magnitude. Florida is going to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in this game and while the Gators are just 4-3, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. They also went on the road back in late September and gave Tennessee all they can handle, losing by a final score of 33-38 and outgaining the Vols 594 to 576. 

That outcome along is enough reason to think Florida can at the very least keep this within 22 points. The other big thing for me is the magnitude of next week's game against Tennessee for the Bulldogs. That game is shaping up to where the winner will be in the driver seat to represent the East in the SEC title game, while the loser will have to sit and hope that they have done enough to still get invited to the CFB Playoff. Give me the Gators +23! 

10-29-22 Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -1 0-48 Win 100 71 h 7 m Show

9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas State Wildcats -1

I will take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 1-point home favorite against Oklahoma State. A lot of people are going to think the line is off. To them it should be the No. 9 ranked Cowboys who are favored against the No. 22 ranked Wildcats. 

I don't think that's the case at all, as I feel this line should be closer to what it opened as with K-State as a 3-point home favorite. 

For me it really comes down to the defensive side of the football, where I think the home team has a massive edge in this game. K-State comes into this game giving up just 19.7 ppg and 375 ypg and that's come against teams who average 27.9 ppg and 416 ypg. It's also a defense that is even that much tougher to score on at home, where they are allowing 14.3 ppg, 325 ypg and a mere 4.6 yards/play. 

As for Oklahoma State's defense, they are giving up 28.7 ppg and 451 ypg vs teams who on average allow 30.3 ppg and 413 ypg. In the Cowboys last 4 games they have given up 457 total yards to Baylor, 527 total yards to Texas Tech, 510 total yards to TCU and 523 total yards to Texas. I know they have won 3 of those 4 games, but they could just as easily be 1-3 in those games, as the trailed Texas Tech by 9 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and Texas by as many as 14. You just can't make a living winning like this and I just feel like it's going to finally catch up to them against a very hungry K-State team on Saturday. Give me the Wildcats -1! 

10-29-22 Northwestern v. Iowa -11 Top 13-33 Win 100 71 h 7 m Show

10* NCAAF Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa Hawkeyes -11

I'm going to lay the 11-points at home with the Iowa Hawkeyes against the Northwestern Wildcats. A lot of people are probably going to think I'm crazy laying double-digits with an Iowa team that has been one of the worst offensive teams in the country thru the first two months of the season, but I love the Hawkeyes in this matchup with the Wildcats. 

I'm not about to sit here and say Iowa's offense is any good, but I do think people overlook just how difficult the schedule has been for the Hawkeyes offense this year. Iowa's last 3 opponents all rank in the Top 5 in the country in total defense for this season. Ohio State being No. 2, Illinois being No. 1 and Michigan being No. 5. They have also faced two other Top 10 defense in Rutgers at No. 7 and Iowa State at No. 9. Not to mention they opened the season against South Dakota State, who is currently the No. 1 ranked team in the country at the FCS level and ranks third in the FCS in total defense. 

Northwestern comes into this game ranked 97th in the country in total defense, giving up 410 yards/game. They are also allowing 29.5 ppg and 442.5 ypg in Big Ten play. Keep in mind that's with them holding Penn State to just 17 in a monsoon. The only other team they have held under 31 points this season is Miami (OH). 

The Wildcats also feature one of the worst run defenses in the country, giving up a staggering 189 ypg on the season and 222.8 yards/game vs FBS opponents. In the two games this season Iowa has been able to rush for more than 100 yards, they have scored 27 points. 

I also think the offense will likely see a full game with Alex Padilla at quarterback. Padilla replaced starter Spencer Petras in the loss to Ohio State. Petras has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks I can remember. Not saying Padilla is the answer, but Iowa's offense desperately needed a change under center. 

With all that said about this potentially being a breakout game for Iowa's offense, I believe the Hawkeyes could win and cover this spread with their defense alone. Iowa's defense is special. For them to be giving up 16.1 ppg, 278 ypg and 4.1 yards/play with how bad that offense has been is truly remarkable. The Hawkeyes should make life a living hell for a Northwestern offense that hasn't been much better than Iowa's in 2022. Wildcats are only scoring 18.6 ppg. 

This is also a Northwestern offense that has struggled to take care of the football. The Wildcats have a staggering 17 turnovers in 6 games and have turned it over at least 2 times in all 6 games. Not many defenses in the country who are better at creating turnovers than Iowa's. This to me has blowout written all over it. Give me Iowa -11! 

10-29-22 TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 41-31 Loss -110 68 h 58 m Show

8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5

I will gladly take my chances with West Virginia cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against No. 7 ranked TCU. Most are going to feel like this is a short number to be laying with the Horned Frogs, as TCU comes into this game a perfect 7-0, while the Mountaineers just embarrassed in a 48-10 loss at Texas Tech this past Saturday as a mere 5-point dog. 

This to me is all about the spot. On one hand we should have a hungry and highly motivated West Virginia team looking to bounce back from their worst showing of the season. On the other hand we have a TCU team that has to be running on fumes right now. The Horned Frogs just finished up a 4-game stretch, where every team they played at the time of the game were ranked in the Top 20 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St and Kansas St). 

They also are coming off two exhausing come from behind wins in their last two games. Two weeks ago TCU was able to erase a 17-point deficit to force OT and eventually beat Oklahoma State 43-40. Last week they trailed K-State by 18-points before rallying to win 38-28. 

I think it's going to be tough for them to not suffer a letdown here against West Virginia, especially after how bad the Mountaineers looked last week. Thing is, Morgantown is no easy place to play. Just ask Baylor, who lost at West Virginia a few weeks back. 

TCU has also not been nearly as impressive away from home. While the Horned Frogs are 3-0 SU on the road, they are getting outgained on average 455 to 451 away from home and those 3 games have come against Colorado, SMU and Kansas. 

I'm confident J.T. Daniels and the West Virginia offense will be able to score enough to keep this close enough to cover and maybe even win outright. Give me the Mountaineers +7.5! 

10-27-22 Utah v. Washington State +7.5 Top 21-17 Win 100 56 h 5 m Show

10* NCAAF Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Washington State +7.5 

I'll take my chances with Washington State cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against the Utes in Thursday's Pac-12 action. I just feel like this is way too many points for Utah be laying on the road in a prime time game. Pullman is no easy place to play for opposing teams. Cougars have covered 3 straight at home vs Utah, winning two of those outright. 

The game that really stands out to me is their home game against Oregon back on 9/24. Washington State would end up losing that game 41-44, but should have won outright. The Cougars were up 34-22 with less than 5 minutes to play and had never trailed before Oregon scored 3 times in less than 3 minutes to steal the win. Given what the Ducks have done to every other team since that ugly loss to Georgia, that performance tells you a lot about this Cougars team. 

I really think it speaks volumes to their defense. Because they ended up giving up 44, people overlook that Oregon had just 22 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It's really hard to run on this Washington State front and their passing game on offense should be able to exploit a struggling Utah secondary. This is also not the same dominant front we have grown accustomed to with the Utes, as they are giving up 143 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry on the ground. Give me Washington State +7.5! 

10-23-22 Jets v. Broncos -1 16-9 Loss -110 73 h 46 m Show

8* NFL Public Money ATS SHOCKER: Denver Broncos -1

You might think I'm crazy backing the Broncos with how they have struggled of late, but I just can't help myself here with Denver basically at a pick'em in this one. Just a few weeks ago this line would have been pushing a touchdown. Now after the Jets big road win over Green Bay and Denver coming off another awful offensive showing on MNF, the line has been way over-adjusted. 

The one thing that is getting way overlooked with this Denver team is their defense. The Broncos have held 5 of their 6 opponents this season to fewer than 20 points and yet are just 2-4 in those games. I think their defense and playing at home is enough to carry them to a win in this game. 

I also think as bad as the Broncos offense has been, there have been some flashes of what they could become. This will never be the elite offense we all expected when Denver landed Wilson in the trade with Seattle, but I'm confident it won't continue to be as bad as it's been. 

The Jets have went from being a team everyone thought was terrible to now having to play with expectations. That can be a difficult thing to do and it would not surprise me in the least if New York laid an egg in this game. Keep in mind this is their second straight game on the road and 3rd time in the last 4 weeks they are playing on the road. Not to mention they got a big home game against their hated rivals in New England looming on deck next week. Give me the Broncos -1! 

10-23-22 Lions +7 v. Cowboys 6-24 Loss -110 70 h 39 m Show

9* NFL - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Detroit Lions +7

I like the value with the Lions catching a full 7-points on the road against the Cowboys. I just feel like Dallas is coming into this game way overpriced because of Dak's return from injury. Everyone is just assuming that the Cowboys are going to be better because he's back, but I gotta see it to believe it. The offense did not look good with him in Week 1 and it was like they ran a completely different offense with Cooper Rush. They just try to force the pass too much with Dak. 

I also don't love the spot for Dallas, as they put in a lot to last week's big division showdown with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. While the Cowboys' could be a bit flat, we should get an A+ effort from the Lions in this one. Detroit is coming off of their bye week and should be extremely motivated given they went into their bye with a 29-0 loss at New England. 

The offense did play well against the Patriots, but they were without Swift and star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing at less than 100%. Both are expected to be on the field Sunday. 

Detroit is a team that also just doesn't go away and have thrived in this spot under head coach Campbell. Lions are 9-2 ATS under Campbell as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me Detroit +7! 

10-23-22 Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders 21-23 Loss -110 69 h 27 m Show

8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Green Bay Packers -4.5

I might be kicking myself tomorrow afternoon after this game gets going, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Packers laying less than a touchdown at Washington. This is a bad Commanders team that is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball. Forget about the Packers offensive struggles for a second. Green Bay is giving up just 299 total yards per game. 

Simply put, this is a big time buy-low spot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost 2 straight games. First it was the 2nd half collapse against the Giants in London, then it was an absolutely brutal showing at home against the Jets. If this team is anything close to what we thought coming into the year, they should respond in a big way in this game. 

I know they failed in this spot last week after their loss to the Giants, but it's worth noting that the Packers are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss. Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS last 10 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS last 5 (doesn't happen often) when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Packers -4.5! 

10-23-22 Giants v. Jaguars -3 Top 23-17 Loss -110 70 h 40 m Show

10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here. 

That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize. 

New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20. 

I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3! 

10-22-22 Minnesota v. Penn State -4 Top 17-45 Win 100 53 h 6 m Show

10* NCAAF Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions -4

I will gladly take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Gophers on Saturday. This to me is a great time buy-low on Penn State after last week's embarrassing 17-41 loss at Michigan, where they allowed the Wolverines to run for 418 yards. You can bet it was not a fun week of practice for the Nittany Lions leading up to this game. I'm confident we are going to get an A+ effort here from Penn State at home, especially with this being a prime time game under the lights. 

I also think this Minnesota team is a good fade right now. The Gophers have been way overpriced in their last two games. They lost 10-20 as a 8.5-point home favorite against Purdue and then coming out of their bye they lost 14-26 at Illinois as a 6-point favorite. Note that game against the Illini wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Illinois outgained them 563-269.

I just don't see how that Gophers offense will be able to go on the road under the lights against a motivated Penn State team and keep this close. Keep in mind prior to giving up all those yards on the ground against Michigan, the Nittany Lions had been great against the run. If you can slow down Minnesota's run game, there's really not much their offense can do. I think this line at the least should be a touchdown. Give me Penn State -4! 

10-22-22 West Virginia v. Texas Tech -6 Top 10-48 Win 100 49 h 36 m Show

10* NCAAF - Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -6

I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech covering the 6-point spread at home against West Virginia. This to me is a great spot to buy-low on the Red Raiders after back-to-back road losses to K-State and Oklahoma State. Not to mention Texas Tech is coming off of their bye week, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for this game. It's also a good sell-high spot on the Mountaineers after their big upset win over Baylor. 

I just don't see West Virginia going on the road and making a game of it with how much their defense has struggled to get off of the field. The Mountaineers come into this game giving up 44.3 ppg, 486 ypg and 7.5 yards/play in Big 12 play. They have been absolutely torched thru the air, as opposing QBs are completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 10.4 yards/attempt. 

That defense will be up against a Texas Tech offense that is putting up 44.3 ppg and 518 ypg at home this season. Red Raiders' offense is built around a potent passing attack that comes in completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 365 ypg. Texas Tech is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents on average by almost 20 ppg. Give me Texas Tech -6! 

10-22-22 Duke +9 v. Miami-FL 45-21 Win 100 46 h 10 m Show

9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils +9

I'm going to take the 9-points with Duke on the road against Miami. I've had a lot of success backing the Blue Devils this season. I'm a perfect 3-0 when backing Duke this year and have not went against them. 

Expectations couldn't have been much lower on the Blue Devils coming into this season. Most had Duke as one of, if not, the worst teams in the ACC and their season win total was set at just 3. They have already surpassed their win total, as they come into this game 4-3 and could very easily be 5-1. They lost in OT at Georgia Tech and gave up a late TD drive in a 35-38 loss to UNC last week. 

You really have to tip your cap to first year head coach Mike Elko, who came over after spending the last 3 years as the DC at Texas A&M. Elko inherited a defense that was awful in 2021, giving up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg and has them allowing just 22.3 ppg and 402 ypg thru 7 games. 

New offensive coordinator Kevin Johns also deserves some love. Duke finished last year averaging just 22.8 ppg. They are scoring 32.9 ppg, putting up 435 yards/game and averaging 6.5 yards/play. They have gotten much better QB play than last year and are running the ball extremely well. Duke is averaging 5.5 yards/carry, a full yard better than what their opponents are giving up on average. 

So while this team is greatly improved on both sides of the ball, I believe they remained way undervalued in the market because of just how low expectations were. It also helps they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. 

It's the exact opposite for Miami, who has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in 2022. Miami was ranked No. 16 in the country to open the season. They climbed to No. 13 after a couple cupcake wins to open the season vs Bethune and Southern Miss. They have lost 3 of their last 4 since with the only win coming by 6 against a bad Virginia Tech team. They are just 1-5 ATS, which includes a shocking 31-45 loss at home to Middle Tennessee as a 26-point favorite. 

I really feel like when you dive into the numbers for these teams, there's just not a lot that separates these two. If anything you could argue Duke has been better. Blue Devils are +0.6 yards/play better than what their opponents allow -0.1 yards/play worse on defense. Miami is -0.1 yards/play worse on offense and -0.2 yards/play worse on defense. Give me Duke +9! 

10-22-22 Syracuse +13.5 v. Clemson 21-27 Win 100 46 h 40 m Show

9* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Syracuse Orange +13.5

I'll take my chances with Syracuse as a 13.5-point road dog against Clemson. I'm well aware that the Orange are going to be the public side in this game and rarely will you find me backing a public dog, but there are certain instances where I think it's acceptable. 

To me I just feel like this line is not so much the books trying to beg you take Syracuse, but more of a tax bettors are being forced to pay on Clemson right now. The Tigers are a massive public team and simply put, there's going to be premium on them when they are playing well and Clemson comes into this game 7-0 SU, ranked #5 in the country and off 3 straight covers. 

Syracuse is 6-0 and ranked No. 14 in the country, but the big difference with them is they came into this season with almost no expectations. We saw just how little the market respected this team last week, when they were 5-0, ranked #18 and just a 2.5-point home favorite against a NC State team that was down starting quarterback Devin Leary. 

I just think when you really look at the numbers, there's no reason for Clemson to be laying double-digits in this matchup. The Tigers are scoring 38.6 ppg vs teams that give up 28.0, which is a +10.6 above average. They are giving up 19.7 ppg vs teams that average 25.5 ppg. They are gaining 6.0 yards/play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards/play. 

Syracuse is scoring 36.0 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 30.0 ppg. They are allowing 13.2 ppg vs teams that score 21.4 ppg. Orange are gaining 6.6 yards/play and allowing 4.6 yards/play. 

Keep in mind these two teams have played a very similar strength in schedule to this point. We have seen Syracuse give Clemson trouble in the past when they are going well and as crazy as it might sound, I think they can win this game outright. Give me the Orange +13.5! 

10-22-22 Houston -3 v. Navy 38-20 Win 100 46 h 38 m Show

8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Houston Cougars -3

I'm going to lay the 3-points with Houston on the road against Navy. I've bet against the Cougars a decent amount so far and a big reason for that is I thought they were way overvalued coming into the year. This to me feels like a fair price on Houston and I just love the spot for them. 

Last time we saw the Cougars they had a miraculous 33-32 win at Memphis. After trailing by double-digits the majority of the game, Houston scored 2 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of regulation (think Jets vs Browns in Week 2 of the NFL). 

That's a win that will get everyone on the same page and it just so happened to come right before their bye week. This has to feel like a defining point of their season. I would be shocked if we didn't get the best the Cougars have to offer in this game. 

The other big thing with the bye is that it allowed them 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's triple-option. They have also played Navy each of the last 7 years, so it's not quite a shock to the system like it is for other teams. 

Navy has covered each of their last 4 games, but they were getting double-digits in 3 of them and the other was +4.5 at home vs Tulsa. I just don't trust that defense for the Midshipen. They are giving up 6.4 yards/play and are getting torched thru the air with opposing QBs completing 66.3% of their attempts with a 9.7 average. Houston's Clayton Tune just threw for 366 and 3 scores in their win over Memphis. Would definitely lean OVER as well in this game. Give me Houston -3! 

10-22-22 Iowa +30 v. Ohio State 10-54 Loss -110 46 h 37 m Show

8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS MASSACRE: Iowa Hawkeyes +30

I will take my chances with Iowa as a massive 30-point underdog against Ohio State on Saturday. As bad as the Hawkeyes are offensively, this is too many points for them to be catching in this matchup. I'm not so sure it's even a lock that the Buckeyes score 30 points in this game. 

That's how good this Iowa defense is. The Hawkeyes come into this game allowing just 9.8 ppg. Sure the schedule hasn't been overly tough, but those teams on average are scoring 23.2 ppg. The Hawkeyes are holding their opponents on average 14 points below what those teams typically score. If they can replicate that, that would put Ohio State down to like 35 points from their 48.8 average. 

That means all we would need is a mere 7-points from Iowa to get the cover. Ohio State's defense is good, but they are giving up 15.7 ppg. If Iowa can get to that mark (16), it would take 47+ from the Buckeyes for us to lose. 

I also think you got to look at how well Iowa played in their game against Michigan, especially in comparison to what we just saw the Wolverines do to Penn State this past Saturday. Iowa held Michigan to just 27 points and 327 total yards. The same Michigan offense that just had 41 points and 563 total yards against the Nittany Lions. 

It probably isn't going to be pretty and we may need the backdoor to be open, but I feel good about Iowa keeping this within the number. Give me the Hawkeyes +30! 

10-17-22 Broncos +5 v. Chargers 16-19 Win 100 22 h 58 m Show

9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Broncos +5

I'll take my chances with the Broncos catching 5-points on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Denver in this game. The Broncos haven't even come close to resembling the team that we expected to see when they landed Russell Wilson in a trade this past offseason. 

As bad as the offense has looked, I don't think it's in as bad a shape as what it's being made out to be. Denver has actually moved the ball well at times. They are gaining 343.6 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They have just been historically bad whenever they get in the red zone. They simply can't have that bad of luck in the red zone the rest of the way and I think this has the potential to be a breakout game for them.

The Chargers defense has not been playing well at all of late. In LA's last 3 games, they are giving up a staggering 30.0 ppg and 400.7 ypg. The bigger thing to note is that the struggles have come against the likes of the Jaguars, Texans and Browns. 

On the other side of the ball, LA's offense has one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, but he's playing behind a banged up offensive line that has struggled some since losing starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. Denver has some pass rushers that should be able to exploit that o-line and one of the better secondaries in the game. Broncos are only giving up 177 passing yards/game. 

Division games have a way of coming down to the wire and I see this being one of those games that isn't decided until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. That makes Denver an easy play for me catching north of a field goal. Give me the Broncos +5! 

10-16-22 Bills v. Chiefs +3 24-20 Loss -120 89 h 4 m Show

9* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas City Chiefs +3

I will take the Chiefs as a 3-point home dog against the Bills in arguably the most anticipated regular-season game of the year after what took place last January between these two teams in the playoffs. 

All you are going to hear this week is about how Buffalo is going to get their revenge on KC after letting one get away in their 36-42 OT loss to the Chiefs. The biggest talking point being the Bills allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal with just 13 seconds to work with. 

What people are quick to forget in that game is the Chiefs had a 23-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. KC outgained the Bills 552 to 422. Not to mention Buffalo got as good a game out of a WR as you could have with Gabe Davis catching 8 passes for 201 yards and 4 scores. 

I just don't see KC letting Davis beat them over the top in this one. I also think that while the Chiefs secondary hasn't been great at times, KC's getting back stud rookie corner Trent McDuffie for this game and their pass rush compared to last year is vastly improved. 

I also think that for as much as Buffalo wants to win this game, the same could be said for Kansas City. All you have heard all offseason and thru the first 5 weeks is how good this Bills team is. How they are the team to beat and how Josh Allen is a lock for MVP. 

I don't think it's sat well with this team at all and there's no question that Patrick Mahomes takes notes on what people say. As good as Allen is, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he'll do everything in his power to get them a win in this game. I think getting a field goal at home is too good to pass up. Give me the Chiefs +3! 

10-16-22 Panthers +10.5 v. Rams Top 10-24 Loss -120 89 h 53 m Show

10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers. 

All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team.

As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball. 

I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker. 

On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore. 

They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5! 

10-16-22 Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 Top 9-19 Win 100 89 h 51 m Show

10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3

I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith. 

If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot. 

I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd. 

As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot. 

I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team. 

I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3! 

10-16-22 Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 18-20 Win 100 86 h 4 m Show

8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5

I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a 9.5-point home dog against the Buccaneers. Great time to buy low on Pittsburgh, who is just 1-4 and fresh off an ugly 38-3 loss at Buffalo last week. We should get a big time effort from the Steelers after that awful showing. I also don't think you can overreact to that loss, given just how good the Bills are. 

If you remember back to MNF in Week 2, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Titans 41-7. Everyone was saying how bad Tennessee was and the Titans have since won 3 straight games. 

As ugly as the final score was, 3-points was as bad as Pittsburgh could have done. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards. The Steelers offense had the ball inside the Bills 40-yard line 6 times on their first 9 drives and only came away with 3 points. They turned it over on downs twice, missed two field goals and had another drive end in an interception. They also had another drive late in the 4th quarter where they got in the red zone and turned it over on downs. 

I don't think people who don't follow this team closely really understand how much better this offense is with Pickett instead of Mitch Trubisky. 

I also don't think the defense is as bad it showed in that game. They just had no answer for Josh Allen and that passing attack. Buffalo had 5 different receivers log a catch of 26 or more yards. Gabe Davis had a 98-yard and a 62-yard TD catch. 

Yes, it's Tom Brady on the other side this week, but this is not the same potent Tampa Bay offense that they have been the last two years. It's been better of late, but still lacks explosion. It's a lot of dink and dunk right now. Leonard Fournette led the team with 10 receptions and 83 yards last week. That's also not a very good Atlanta defense. 

Really the only time this offense has shown us anything is in Week 4 in a 31-41 loss at home to the Chiefs. Big thing to note about that is the Chiefs were up 38-17 in the final minute of the 4th quarter

I just think when you factor in how motivated Pittsburgh will be, how underrated the offense is coming into this game, the Bucs not being an offensive juggernaut and how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, you have to roll the dice with the Steelers at this price. Give me Pittsburgh +9.5! 

10-16-22 Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts 27-34 Loss -110 86 h 56 m Show

9* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

I will gladly take the 2.5-points with the Jaguars in Sunday's road game against the Colts. I just don't know what Indianapolis has done to deserve to be favored in this spot. These two teams played back in Week 2 at Jacksonville and the Jaguars completely dominated that matchup from start to finish. Jacksonville won the game 24-0, with their defense limiting Indy to just 218 yards and 9 first downs. 

The key here is we are catching the Jags in a massive buy-low spot after last week's shocking 6-13 home loss to the Texans as a 7-point favorite. No one (including myself) was giving Houston any shot in that game. Needless to say the Jags burned a lot of people last week, whether they laid the big number on the spread, teased Jacksonville down to a near pick'em or backed them in survivor. 

The narrative has gone from this might be one of the surprise teams in the NFL to this is a team who overachieved early and is now showing it's true colors. 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I still think this is a pretty good football team. They outgained the Texans 422 to 248. Scoring just 6 points was the worst possible outcome given how well they moved the ball. You just have to wonder if there was not only a lack of respect given to Houston, but also a bit of a letdown coming off that tough loss at Philly the week before. 

Going back to the Colts. It's a miracle Indy isn't coming into this game at 0-5 and yet they are 2-2-1. Indy trailed 3-20 going into the 4th quarter and managed to pull out a 20-20 tie against the Texans in Week 1. The Chiefs couldn't have played any worse against the Colts in Week 3 and it still took a TD in the final seconds for Indy to win that game 20-17. If KC doesn't have an awful backup kicker they lose that game. Then there's last week's 12-9 OT win against the Broncos, which I'm sure most of you saw as it was the Thursday Night Football matchup. Denver gave that game to them in on silver platter. 

What's made the Colts so bad is the horrific play they are getting out of their offensive line. Indy's front five hasn't shown the ability to pass protect or run block. They tried to switch up the starting unit against the Broncos and it was just as bad as before. It's not getting any better and I just don't see how you can expect them to move this ball against this Jags defense. In their first meeting, the Jaguars sacked Matt Ryan 5 times and held Indy to just 54 yards rushing. Give me Jacksonville +2.5! 

10-15-22 North Carolina v. Duke +7 38-35 Win 100 99 h 49 m Show

9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Duke Blue Devils +7

I will gladly take my chances with Duke catching 7-points at home against the Tar Heels. I really think the Blue Devils have a legit shot of winning this game outright. I just don't think North Carolina is as good as their 5-1 record. They were a 2-point conversion away from having to go OT against App State after going into the 4th quarter leading 41-21. They trailed Georgia State 21-28 in the 2nd half of a 35-28 win and last week somehow managed to hold on for a 27-24 win at Miami, despite getting outgained 538-470. 

Sure, the offense is great and quarterback Drake Maye is really good, but a lot of those numbers are a result of their defense. Just as quickly as the Tar Heels are scoring, their defense is giving it right back up on the other side. UNC is giving up 32.0 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.1 yards/play. That jumps to 37.7 ppg, 536 ypg and 6.8 yards/play on the road. 

It's hard to go on the road and blowout a quality team like Duke when your defense struggles to get stops. I also don't think people realize just how good this Blue Devils team is. First year head coach Mike Elko isn't getting the props he deserves. Duke won just 3 games last year and are 4-2 with their two losses coming by 8-points at Kansas and by 3 at Georgia Tech. 

Elko was a long-time defensive coordinator and has made his presence felt on that side of the ball. Duke is giving up just 19.7 ppg and 380 ypg, which is truly remarkable when you consider the Blue Devils returned just 5 starters from a defense that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg last year. 

Another reason for Duke's success is they appear to have found a legit starting quarterback in sophomore Riley Leonard. He's completing 66.3% of his attempts with a 8-3 TD-INT ratio. He's also rushed for 289 yards and 4 scores. This offense should have no problem moving the ball in this game. If the defense can get some stops early, they could be in control of this game the entire way. Give me Duke +7! 

10-15-22 USC v. Utah -3 Top 42-43 Loss -118 99 h 40 m Show

10* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Utah Utes -3

I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with No. 20 Utah as they host No. 7 USC. The fact that the Trojans are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and are getting points against a lessor ranked team is enough on it's own to roll the dice with the Utes. The books are begging the public to take USC and they are doing so at close to a 65% clip. More times than not in a game of this magnitude, you want to fade the public. 

Not that I don't think USC is a good team and a program that is very soon going to be a consistent playoff contender under head coach Lincoln Riley. I just think people are jumping the gun a little bit with this team. 

Just look at the last 3 games for this team. USC needed a late TD to escape with a 17-14 win at Oregon State, they only led Arizona State 21-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and were only up 3 on Washington State midway thru the 3rd quarter. 

Utah comes into this season with some lofty expectations, as a lot of people were picking this team to go undefeated and make the playoffs. The Utes have got a good taste of humble pie early on. They lost a heartbreaker in their opener at Florida 26-29 and then last week lost 32-42 at UCLA. 

While it's early, a loss here would really put the Utes behind the 8-ball in getting to the Pac-12 title. They would be 2-games back in the loss column to USC, Oregon and UCLA and would lose the tie-breaker to both the Trojans and Bruins. 

I have a lot of trust in Kyle Whittingham's team to step up and deliver a big win at home with their backs against the ball. Utah is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year and are now 18-1 SU at home over the last 3+ seasons. Give me the Utes -3! 

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