50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) 

I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders. 

I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. 

The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram. 

In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season. 

I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Raiders +1)

I think we are getting a great price on the Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Not a big surprise, as the public likes this Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow and they will like that the Bengals are coming off a bye. They also want nothing to do with Las Vegas right now, especially after watching them get beat pretty bad last week at home against the Chiefs. 

I know the final score looks bad in that game against KC, but that's a different game if DeSean Jackson doesn't fumble on that long pass. He scores there and it's a 3-point game. Instead it was like the life was sucked out of this team. I also think people are sleeping on the improvements that the Chiefs have made defensively over the last month with some of the guys they have added and got back from injury. 

I think this Raiders defense and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback is something that is getting overlooked, as they should have a field day against a horrible Bengals' offensive line. I also think this Cincinnati defense is one that LV can have some success against. Give me the Raiders +1! 

40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Dolphins -3) 

I'll be the first to admit that there wasn't a scenario or opponent that would have had me laying points with the Dolphins on the road, but there's just no way I'm passing up Miami as a mere 3-point road favorite against this Jets team. 

Not only do I think Miami has improved quite a bit over the last month of the season, I feel that the Jets are playing with fire with the decision of the coaching staff to start a washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback over the likes of Mike White. 

Now I know White played poorly last week against the Bills, but that was somewhat to be expected given he was up against arguably the league's best secondary. The thing is, they aren't benching him because of that or because he's injured. They are 100% starting Flacco to protect their 1st round investment of Zach Wilson. They want to make sure that when Wilson is healthy and ready to play, they can go back to him as the starter without any controversy. 

While it might prove to be the wise decision long-term, I don't think the decision can sit well with the players in the locker room. They are basically saying they would rather lose than play the best players that give them a chance to win. 

I really think as bad as the Jets have looked of late, this could very well go down as their worst performance of the year. Not only are they limiting themselves offensively, but they have without a doubt in my mind the worst defense in the league. 

I think Miami showed us in last week's big upset win over the Ravens that they have not quit on this season. I know it's a longshot, but even at 3-7 this team has to feel like they can get back in the playoff race in the AFC. With home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets after this road game at New York, they got a realistic shot to be sitting at 7-7 with 3 to play. Give me the Dolphins -3! 

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SHOCKER (Bears +6.5) 

I really like the value we are getting with the Bears catching 6.5-points at home against the Ravens. I really don't think the Ravens should be more than a field goal favorite in this game, but it's been inflated because of all the public love for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, as well as the fact that Chicago has lost 4 straight. 

I just don't think this Ravens team is as good as what their record shows or what people think. The defense is no where close to what it's been in the past, they don't have the talent at running back that they have had in the past. The offense is also not producing anywhere close to expectations on the road, as they are scoring just 19.8 ppg away from home on the season. 

As for the Bears, I think this is a team that is on the rise. It took some time, but Justin Fields finally looks comfortable and we really saw him take a big step forward in the second half of that game against the Steelers in Week 9. 

Ravens have failed to cover each of their last 6 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing on average in this spot by 5.2 ppg. Give me the Bears +6.5! 

40* (CFB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Utah -3) 

This line is going to look off to a lot of people, as you have the No. 3 ranked Ducks as a 3-point dog against the No. 23 ranked Utes. Most just assume that because Oregon is ranked so much higher in the standings, they should be the ones laying points in this game. 

It just goes to show you why you can't invest too much into the rankings. The fact that the books know the money is going to come in on Oregon and still went ahead and made the Utes the favorites, tells you how they think this game is going to play out. To me, they are straight up telling you they think the Utes are going to win this game. 

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been waiting to play Utah in this spot for several weeks now. Ever since Charlie Brewer decided to leave the team and open the door for Cameron Rising to be the starter, the Utes have looked like a completely different team. Utah has gone 6-1 since Rising took over and he's been outstanding.

He's completing 63.5% of his attempts, averaging just under 225 passing yards/game and has a 14-2 TD-INT ratio. He's also added another element to their offense with his mobility, as he's carried it 45 times for 321 yards and 4 scores. That's an average of 7.1 yards/carry. He's also been sacked 3 times in 233 pass attempts, where Brewer was sacked 6 times in just 79 attempts. 

Not only can Utah throw the ball, they are averaging 214 ypg and 5.9 yards/carry on the ground. They come in having scored 34 or more points in 6 straight games. I feel really good about this offense being able to move the ball on this Oregon defense. 

The only real impressive win for Oregon this year came back in September when they stuned Ohio State on the road. A great win, but the Buckeyes aren't nearly as good defensively as they have been in years past. 

I really think it's going to be a challenge for this Ducks offense against this stingy front 7 of Utah. The Utes have had some trouble against the pass, but are really good against the run. They give up just 139 ypg and 3.9 yards/carry. It will be strength vs strength, as Oregon's offense is really built to run the ball. The Ducks are averaging 41 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts. 

I really think the Utes defense is going to feed off the energy of the home crowd, as Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play and you can bank on it being electric with this being the prime time night game on ABC set to kickoff at 7:30 EST. Give me the Utes -3! 

50* (CFB) - ACC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Va Tech +8) 

I really like the Hokies as a 8-point road dog against the Hurricanes. I'm always going to look to back a team in the first game after they fired their head coach. We have won in this spot multiple times already with the likes of USC and a couple weeks ago with TCU in that shocking win over Baylor. I really think we are going to see a spirited effort here from Virginia Tech after they just let Justin Fuente go. 

On the flip side of this, I hate this spot for Miami. The Hurricanes come into this game off a crushing 28-31 loss at rival Florida State. After falling behind 17-0, Miami rallied and had a 28-20 lead with less 5 minutes to play and were up 28-23 before giving up a TD in the final seconds to lose 28-31. 

Now the loss does leave Miami at 5-5 and still 1 win shy of bowl eligibility, but getting to 6-6 is just not as big a deal for a program like the Hurricanes. I do think it means a little more to Va Tech, who is also 5-5. I know other names are being thrown around, but you got to believe interim head coach J.P. Price wants to show what he can do and get this team to a bowl. Either way I don't think they need that motivational edge given they are going to already being playing hard after Fuente was fired. Give me the Hokies +8! 

50* (CFB) - SEC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (S Carolina +8) 

I love the Gamecocks catching over a touchdown at home against Auburn this week. This point of the season is all about motivation and figuring out which teams are going to show up. I don't know if there's an easier target to fade in Week 12 than the Tigers. 

Auburn comes into this game off a demoralizing 34-43 loss at home to Mississippi State. A game they led 28-3 before giving up 40 unanswered points to the Bulldogs. That game on it's own would be tough to come back from, but it also knocked he Tigers out of the SEC West race. Had they won that game and then beat South Carolina, they would of went into their finale against rival Alabama with a spot in the SEC title game on the line. 

Key here is that while the game against the Crimson Tide might not have the same meaning it could have had they beat the Bulldogs, that's still going to be a game that Auburn gets up for, knowing that if they win they will all but eliminate Alabama from a spot in the 4-team playoff. 

If all that wasn't enough, starting quarterback Bo Nix has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury and their top wide out Kobe Hudson has been downgraded to doubtful. 

There's not a lot of numbers to dive into with South Carolina and while they will win, but we saw this team not only cover but win outright in a similar spot a couple weeks ago in their 40-17 win at home against Florida. Also, at 5-5, the Gamecocks still need a win to become bowl eligible and I don't think they want to leave that up in the air with Clemson on deck. Give me South Carolina +8! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR (Syracuse +11.5) 

I think we are getting some big time value with the Orange as a double-digit road dog against NC State this week. Not only are we buying low on Syracuse after their ugly 41-3 loss at Louisville last week, but we are also selling high on NC State after their near upset win on the road against Wake Forest. 

The even bigger factor for me is the horrible spot that the Wolfpack fall in after that crushing loss to the Demon Deacons. That game against WF was MASSIVE. It was basically to decide which of those teams would be in the driver seat to win Atlantic and play in the ACC title game. Had NC State won, both them and Wake would have been tied at 5-1 in the standings with the Wolfpack holding the tie-breaker. 

Asking this team to come out and play up to their true potential in a pretty meaningless game against Syracuse is asking a lot, especially to win by double-digits against what figures to be a very motivated Orange team. Not only does Syracuse want to bounce back from that ugly loss to Louisville, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible and have an equally tough game next week against Pitt. Give me Syracuse +11.5! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Northwestern +11) 

I was a little hesitant to back Northwestern as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this game and how these two teams matchup, I have to roll the dice with the Wildcats on Saturday. 

While the game won't technically be a home game for Northwestern, it is being played in their backyard at Wrigley Field and I think the game being there will give this 3-7 Wildcats team something to get up for. 

In fact, I think if there's a team that struggles to show up, it will be the Boilermakers. Purdue has been through quite the Big Ten gauntlet the last 5 weeks. During this stretch they have played @ Iowa, home vs Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, home vs Michigan State and then last week's big showdown at Ohio State. 

They are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and while they are just a game back of Wisconsin for the West title, they lost the head-to-head with the Badgers and would need them to lose their last two games (home vs Nebraska & @ Minnesota) to overtake them. They also would need Iowa to lose 1 of their last 2 games. 

I just think it's going to be really tough for Purdue to get up for this game. I also think it's a bad matchup for their offense. The weakness of Northwestern's defense is stopping the run and Purdue is one of the worst in the country at running. Wildcats are only giving up 193 passing yards/game. Give me Northwestern +11! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -1.5) 

We cashed with Boston College as a 2-point road dog at Georgia Tech last week, despite a really sloppy start to the game by the Eagles. The Yellow Jackets led that game early 21-7 before a 2nd quarter BC explosion had them up 28-21. They would carry that over to the 2nd half and win the game 40-21. They ended up outgaining Georgia Tech 505 to 343. 

One of my biggest things in taking the Eagles in that game was I thought they weren't getting the respect they deserved since starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec returned from injury. He didn't put up great numbers in their 17-3 win over Va Tech in his first start back, but went 13 of 20 for 310 yards and 2 scores vs Georgia Tech. 

I think he's going to have another big game here against a Florida State defense that has given up over 300 yards passing in each of their last 2 games. I also think this is a big letdown/lookahead spot for the Seminoles after their crazy come from behind win over rival Miami last week and rival Florida on deck next Saturday. 

I know BC is already bowl eligible and FSU needs these last two games to get to 6-6, I just don't think it's as big a deal for a program like Florida State to play in a crappy bowl and it's always a big deal for these middle of the pack teams to play the Seminoles. BC also has to be itching for a shot at FSU after losing two close games to them the last two years. Give me the Eagles -1.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers +17.5) 

I love the value we are getting with Rutgers as a 17.5-point road dog against Penn State on Saturday. No one is going to overreact to the Scarlet Knights blowing out a fading Indiana team, while I think Penn State gained some respect by how well they played against Michigan, as a lot of people thought the Wolverines were going to win that game going away. 

I also think there's the struggles that Rutgers has had offensively and their 3 home losses to Ohio State (13-52), Michigan State (13-31) and Wisconsin (3-52) that are going to have some convincing themselves that laying the points is the right play. 

If this game was played a month ago and the Nittany Lions were still in it in the Big Ten East, I would probably agree. That's just not the case. At 3-4 in Big Ten play, there's no shot at making the Big Ten title game and they are already bowl eligible at 6-4. You also got the emotional letdown of losing a game to a Top 10 team on their home field after they rallied to take a late lead and another big game on deck against a Michigan State team that is currently in the Top 10 and potentially in the Top 5 if they somehow beat Ohio State. 

I just think it's a really tough spot to ask Penn State to win by 20+ points. In fact, if Rutgers can get their offense going or maybe force a couple turnovers, they could very well win this game outright. Scarlet Knights will definitely be motivated to get that 6th win and become bowl eligible. Give me Rutgers +17.5! 

40* (CFB) - Friday Night Lights ATS MASSACRE (Memphis +9.5) 

I'm going to roll the dice with Memphis as a 9.5-point home dog against the No. 24 ranked Cougars on Friday night. This line to me just feels like it's a few too many and I love that we are seeing the line go down with the public all over Houston. 

It's not been the year the Tigers had hoped for and they are coming off a crushing 29-30 OT loss at home to ECU, but I feel pretty good about the mindset of this Memphis team coming into this big game against Houston. The Tigers have some head scratching losses to some mediocre teams, but they also have outright wins over the likes of Mississippi State and SMU. 

I expect them to put their best foot forward against a ranked Cougars team. There's also motivation for Memphis to get a win here to become bowl eligible. 

Houston has won 9 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech 21-38, but there's a reason they are 9-1 and ranked just No. 24 in the country. They have played a cupcake schedule, which I believe has really aided in their overall numbers. 

The other big thing here for me, is that this game doesn't really mean much. The Cougars end the year next week with a non-conference game against UConn. They have already locked up a spot in the AAC title game with their 7-0 start to AAC play. Give me the Tigers +9.5! 

40* (NFL) - Patriots/Falcons TNF NO-BRAINER (Patriots  -6.5) 

I know everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this game, but there's no way I'm betting against Bill Belichick and this New England team in this spot. I was high on this Pats team coming into the year and bet them at 3/1 to win the AFC East when everyone was taking the Bills. They got off to a slow start, but as Belichick teams do, they have gotten better and better as the season rolls on. 

New England has won and covered each of their last 4 games, with 3 of those 4 wins coming in blowout fashion. I just don't see how the Falcons can make a game of this. Everyone was buying into Atlanta after their 3-1 SU and ATS run leading into the Cowboys game, but it was more of them just taking advantage of a soft schedule. I still think this is a below average team and they showed that last week in their 43-3 loss at Dallas. 

The biggest thing here for me is Belichick's ability to gameplan week to week and take away what a team does best. Well this Atlanta team can't run the ball and you can bet your last dollar that Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Kyle Pitts out of the game. I also think it's huge that Atlanta will likely be without their swiss army knife in Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley (who left the team), no other player for the Falcons has more than 200 yards receiving.

Unless the Pats offense has a complete no show, I just don't see them not winning here by less than a touchdown. Give me New England -6.5! 

40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Broncos -2.5)

I will gladly lay the 2.5 at home with the Broncos against the Eagles. I just don't understand why this Philly team keeps getting so much respect. They closed as a pick'em at home against the Chargers and were only a 1-point dog at LV. Their only 3 wins on the sason are at Atlanta in Week 1 when the Falcons were a complete mess, at Carolina and at Detroit. 

I know they are a good running team, but they have a liability at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. In the Eagles last 5 games they are averaging a mere 157.4 passing yards/game. I just don't see them going on the road in a very tough place to play at Denver and just running the ball effectively enough to win this game. 

The Broncos come into this game off a shocking 30-16 win at Dallas as a 10-point dog. I don't always love backing teams off a big win like this, but that's usually because they end up being overvalued and laying more than they should be. I don't think that's the case here. Everyone wants to just say the Cowboys didn't play well and Dak wasn't ready to come back. No one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. 

I don't think there's any question that Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB on the field in this game and I think he's going to have a huge game against an awful Eagles secondary. I also wouldn't sleep on this Denver ground game. They got two talented back in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The two had 191 yards on 38 carries against Dallas. I just don't think the Eagles are good enough to even make a game of it. Give me the Broncos -2.5! 

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Patriots -1)

I will gladly take my chances betting against Cleveland in this one. The Browns had the most lopsided win of any team in Week 9, as they went on the road and crushed division rival Cincinnati 41-16. 

Some might see a strong correlation with Cleveland having one of their best games after they ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr, but I'm not buying that storyline. I think the Browns caught a massive break early in that Bengals game and it was also a great matchup for Cleveland. 

The break came on the first drive of the game, where Cincinnati drove it all the way down to 1st & Goal to go, only to throw a 99-yard pick six. That completely flipped the script of that game and gave a struggling Browns team some much-needed life. Browns also had two long TD plays. They had a 60-yard TD pass on the first play after the Bengals turned it over on downs. They later got a 70-yard TD run from Nick Chubb. 

They only outgained the Bengals 361 to 348 and were out first downed 25 to 14. It simply wasn't as dominant as performance as what the score leads you to believe. 

I think it's going to be a lot tougher sledding for Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense on the road against a Pats defense that has really come into their own of late. It also doesn't help that Chubb is probably a no go after testing positive for COVID and even if he does play, Bill Belichick will have a game plan in place to not let Cleveland get their running game going and force Mayfield to beat them. 

Mayfield has faced a Belichick defense once so far in his brief career. That was at New England back in 2019. It didn't go well. He threw for just 194 yards and was sacked 5 times in a 13-27 loss. 

It's not going to be easy for the Pats offense against this Browns defense, but I just trust New England's offense more in this game and all we need is for them to find a way to win the game. Give me the Patriots -1! 

40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +9) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Lions as a 9-point dog against the Steelers. I don't care how bad you think this Detroit team is, Pittsburgh should not be close to a double-digit favorite against any team in the league. 

The Steelers offense is extremely limited with the little that Big Ben has left in the tank and their defense isn't all that it's made out to be. We saw that in their last game against the Bears, where they couldn't stop Justin Fields in the 2nd half of that game. 

I also think there's value here with Detroit, because the last time we saw them they got annihilated 44-6 at home by the Eagles. Thing with that game was it was a massive letdown for the Lions after playing their hearts out for Jared Goff against his old team in the Rams. 

Outside of that game, the one thing the Lions have done under Campbell is play extremely hard. This team is an NFL record long field goal from beating the Ravens, they also lost by just 2 at Minnesota. The game against the Rams was extremely close. 

I just feel like we are going to get one of those massive efforts from Detroit out of their bye week. I definitely think they cover the big number and I don't think it's out of the question that they win this game outright. Give me the Lions +9! 

50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) 

I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. 

It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year. 

Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons. 

The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5! 

40* (CFB) Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Washington St +14) 

I think we are getting a great price here with the Cougars as a two touchdown dog against the Ducks. Say what you want about where you think this Oregon team should be ranked in the standings, the fact of the matter is, they just haven't been that impressive outside of their big win at Ohio State. 

It's a great win, but it was two months ago. You got to judge a team based on what they look like now, not what they looked like in September. Since that win, they barely beat Cal 24-17 at home, squeaked by UCLA 34-31 on the road, and had their hands full in last week's 26-16 win at Washington. The only two teams they have beat in Pac-12 play by more than two touchdowns is Arizona and Colorado, who are easily the two worst teams in the league. 

Washington State comes in with a record of just 5-4, but they have won 4 of their last 5 and covered 6 straight games against the spread. That includes a 21-6 win at Cal as a 7.5-point dog, 31-24 win over Oregon State as a 4.5-point dog and a 34-21 win at ASU as a 16.5-point dog. 

Cougars have also had two weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon is in a bit of a sandwich spot. Ducks just played their biggest rival in the Pac-12 outside of Oregon State in Washington and have a MASSIVE game on deck next week at Utah. Give me Washington State +14! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (TCU +13.5) 

I was not the least bit surprised to see TCU pull off the upset last week at Baylor. We had the Horned Frogs +7 in that game. One of the biggest reasons I backed them in that spot, was not only because I knew they would be up to play Baylor, but teams almost always respond in a big way that first game after their head coach is fired (Gary Patterson was let go). 

I don't always come back with that team in the second game under a new coach, but I think it's more than worth a shot at this price. They should be up for this one, as they get a shot here to upset a Top 10 team in the country. 

However, the biggest reason I like TCU is they appear to have made a pretty big upgrade at quarterback going to freshman Chandler Morris. He came in relief of starter Max Duggan in the 2nd half of their loss to K-State and got the start against Baylor. He torched a good Bears defense, throwing for 461 yards and 2 scores, while rushing for 70 yards and a score. 

I think much like we have seen with Caleb Williams and the life he's given Oklahoma after replacing Spencer Rattler, we are going to see a similar thing with Morris and TCU. If Oklahoma State doesn't give TCU their full attention this week in practice, I really think the Horned Frogs could win this game outright. Give me TCU +13.5! 

50* (CFB) - SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arkansas -2.5) 

We didn't get there with Arkansas -5 in last week's 31-28 win over Mississippi State, but that's not going to deter me in the slightest from jumping right back on the Razorbacks. I absolutely love this spot for Arkansas. I think they are still undervalued right now and in my mind the better team when these two take the field on Saturday. 

The reason I believe that this line is so low, is because everyone is scared to bet against LSU at home in a night game and everyone just saw this Tigers team only lose 14-20 as a 28.5-point dog at Alabama last week. 

I think the biggest mistake that people will make, is assuming LSU is going to bring that same intensity against Arkansas. I don't see it. There's no game the Tigers wanted to win more than last week's game against the Crimson Tide, which I think meant even more to them with how their season has transpired in the wrong direction. What motivation does LSU have here? You could say they need to win this to make a bowl, but I'm not a believer that program like LSU really cares about getting to 6-6 and going to a crappy bowl. 

On the flip side, this Arkansas program is a team that is trying to take that next step under 2nd year head coach Sam Pittman and winning on the road against LSU would be big for this team. It would also give them a legit shot at ending the year 4-4 in SEC Play, which is pretty big for a team that has 4 conference wins total the last 4 years. Give me the Razorbacks -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money ATS SHOCKER (Kansas +31) 

As difficult as it may be to bet on a team like Kansas, I just think you have to take a shot with the Jayhawks given this spot. It's not quite the same spot as we saw last week with Florida, who lost outright 40-17 as a 20.5-point favorite at South Carolina, but it does have some similarities. 

The two biggest differences being Florida was coming off that massive game against Georgia. Texas did just play a big game against ISU, but that game really didn't mean a whole lot for the Longhorns. THe other is Texas is at home, where Florida was on the road. 

The key here is the number we are getting is north of 30. There's nothing for Texas to play for. I know they still need two more wins to get bowl eligible, but going 6-6 and playing in a crappy bowl is not something a program like Texas gets excited about. 

I don't think there's any doubt that Kansas will be the more motivated team. Even though they aren't that good, everyone in the Big 12 is getting up to play Texas and Oklahoma with them leaving for the SEC. KU is also still trying to get that elusive first win in Big 12 play. 

Now I don't know if they can win the game, but with how little Texas figures to care about this game and how poor they are defensively, I don't think it's asking a lot for the Jayhawks to keep this within the number. Give me Kansas +31! 

40* (CFB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (NC State +2) 

I think the price is right with NC State in this spot. Wake Forest just had their perfect 8-0 start to the season put to rest with a 55-58 loss at North Carolina. Now I know that defeat didn't count against their ACC record (it was a non-conference game), I still think losing that first game of the year will be a bit much for this team to overcome. 

I also was never really a big believer in this Wake Forest team. The biggest reason they got off to that 8-0 start was an easy schedule. They also were a bit lucky to have not lost before that with how bad they are on defense. 

They have given up more than 300 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, the only exception coming against Duke. They are allowing 436 yards/game on the season. This NC State offense is going to be able to move the ball. 

On the flip side of this, you could make a pretty strong argument that this Wolfpack defense will be the best defense that the Demon Deacons have seen this year. 

This is also a massive game for both teams, as the winner of this game will be in prime position to win the ACC Atlantic. I just think NC State is the better team with the better defense. Give me the Wolfpack +2! 

40* (CFB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Michigan St -13) 

I'm shocked the Spartans are less than a two touchdown favorite at home against a bad Maryland team. I just feel like it's a bit of an overreaction to last week's 29-40 upset loss on the road against Purdue, especially given how much the public was on Michigan State in that game. 

I stayed away from Sparty in that game for a couple of reasons. One was I thought that the Boilermakers were better than people thought and the other was the awful spot for Michigan State coming off that emotional come from behind win over rival Michigan the previous week. 

The big key with jumping back on the Spartans after that loss, is the fact that nothing really changed long-term for Michigan State. They still control their destiny. If they win out and somehow beat Ohio State on the road, they will win the Big Ten East and play in the Big Ten title game. Win that and it's hard to believe they will be left out of the playoff. 

So while that monster game against the Buckeyes looms next week, I don't see that being a lookahead type of deal for this team. Had they beat Purdue it would be a different story. They can't afford to look past Maryland and they know it. 

As far as the matchup is concerned, there's a lot to like with Michigan State. Maryland hasn't proven they can stop anybody in the Big Ten. The Terps are giving up 39.0 ppg, 452 ypg and allowing 6.2 yards/play. 

A few games back we saw them go on the road and give up 326 rushing yards to Minnesota. I just don't see a scenario where the Maryland defense goes on the road and is able to contain a great back like Kenneth Walker, who leads the country in rushing with 1,330 yards and is averaging 6.8 yards/carry. 

I think the big concern a lot of people will have with Michigan State is their defense and whether or not they can trust them after watching the Wolverines and Boilermakers march up and down the field on them. The thing is, it's not as bad as it appears. Even with those two bad games, the Spartans are still giving up just 23.7 ppg and 5.4 yards/play in Big Ten play. 

Maryland is also a pretty easy team to defend, as they are all pass and no run. It's not that they choose not to run, they just can't. Terps are averaging just 82 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground in Big Ten play. Michigan State is going to be able to sit back and play zone and I think they are not only going to be able to get off the field, but I think they could rack up the turnovers and really make this thing ugly. Give me Michigan State -13! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +2) 

I'm a little surprised to see the Eagles as a dog in this game. Boston College just played arguably their best game in more than a month, as they defeated Virginia Tech 17-3 as a 1-point home dog this past Friday. Prior to that win, BC had lost 4 straight and failed to cover their previous 3. 

The thing I think that scares people with the Eagles is they don't like betting teams that can't score and this is a team that has not scored more than 17 points in each of their last 5 games. 

I believe that's going to change. Last week Boston College finally got back starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who hadn't played since early September. He's a guy that a lot of people think will end up in the NFL after his days in Chestnut Hill. 

He should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their attempts for 9.0 yards/attempt. The 9.0 yards/attempt is awful. 

On the flip side, this Eagles defense has quietly gone the radar this year. BC is only giving up 18.8 ppg, 334 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. I just don't see Georgia Tech scoring enough to make a game of this. Give me Boston College +2! 

50* (CFB) - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCF +7.5) 

I love UCF catching 7.5 on the road against SMU. A lot of people threw this Knights team under the bus when they lost star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but I think they have really responded well to the injury. 

The offense hasn't been nearly as potent behind backup quarterback Mikey Keene, but he's been more than serviceable. Keene has completed 65% of his pass attempts for 1,089 yards and has a 12-6 TD/INT ratio. They also have a pretty good running back combo in Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson. 

I think that UCF offense will be able to move the ball against a pretty average SMU defense. Mustangs are giving up just 25.7 ppg on the season, but do allow 415 ypg. They are also trending in the wrong direction, having allowed 32.7 ppg, 463 ypg and 6.0 yards/play in their last 3 games. 

However, the biggest reason I'm looking to fade SMU, is I hate the spot they are in. SMU has went from being 7-0 and thinking they could challenge Cincinnati for the AAC title to losing back-to-back games and all the sudden basically being eliminated from any shot of the ACC title (they would need to beat Cincinnati on the road next week and have the Bearcats lose to either USF or ECU). 

I just think with no clear path to the AAC title game, it's going to make it really hard for SMU to not be looking ahead to next week's big showdown with Cincy. Even if they don't think the Bearcats are going to lose one of those other two, they are going to be extremely motivated to end their perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. Give me the Knights +7.5! 

40* (NFL) Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +7.5) 

I know I'm going to be in the minority here, especially in the eyes of the public, but I like the Dolphins as a home dog against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. I don't really care if it's Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett, I think this Miami offense can move the ball on what I think is an overrated Baltimore defense. 

I think a lot of people would be surprised by just how bad the numbers are for the Ravens defense. Baltimore is giving up 374 ypg, which is only slightly better than the 392 that the Dolphins give up. The more staggering stat is that they are giving up 6.5 yards/play, which I care about a lot more than yards/game. Just to compare, Miami is only giving up 5.9 yards/play and that drops to 5.3 yards/play at home. 

The other thing for me is the spot. Baltimore just finished up playing 4 straight games at home with a thrilling 34-31 OT win against the Vikings, where they trailed 17-3 early and 24-10 in the 2nd half. It would not shock me at all on a short week if the Ravens went down to warm Miami against a bad Dolphins team and laid an egg. 

The other thing with Miami is they have been closer to winning than what people give them credit for. Prior to their win over the Texans, they only trailed the Bills 10-3 going into the 4th quarter, lost by just 2 to a Falcons team that has taken off, by just 3 in London to the Jags, by 10 to the Colts and by 3 to the Raiders. I don't know if they can win this game, but 7.5 is too good a price to pass up. Give me the Dolphins +7.5! 

40* (CFB) Thursday Night ATS NO-BRAINER (N Carolina +7) 

This is just too many points to pass up with North Carolina. The Tar Heels are catching a touchdown on the road against Pitt. It's not been the year that UNC was hoping for when they opened up as a preseason Top 10 team, but it's not been as bad as you might think with their 5-4 record. 

The Tar Heels have lost some games they shouldn't have. They had a bad showing in a road game against a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team, but the other 3 losses were at Va Tech 10-17, home to FSU 25-35 and at Notre Dame 34-44. They outgained all 3 of those teams. 

They just put an end to Wake Forest's perfect season in last week's crazy 58-55 win over the Demon Deacons. 

I just don't think there's as big a gap between them and Pitt as what this number suggests. Yes, the Tar Heels defense is not very good, but neither is the Panthers. Pitt only giving up 22.7 ppg and 344 ypg is as misleading as it gets. Whenever this team has went up against a good offense they have struggled. Not many better offenses out their than what they will face in UNC. This line should be a field goal not a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh +7! 

40* (NFL) - Steelers/Bears MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -7)

I'm going to lay the 7-points with Pittsburgh in this one. I just don't trust this Bears team at all. The are extremely limited offensively and the defense is missing two of their best players in linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson.

Mack didn't play at all in their last game against the 49ers and Jackson left on the second play from scrimmage. Without those two, San Francisco's limited offense was able to put up 33 points and 467 total yards. It's why I feel pretty good hear about the Steelers being able to do some things offensively. 

On the flip side of the ball, I just don't think Justin Fields is there. I know he played better in the loss to the 49ers, but most of the damage he did was on the ground. There's just zero threat of a passing game. I just think this Steelers defense is going to be able to take the run away and I don't know what Chicago can do to stay on the field. I see something along a 24-10 type of game. Give me the Steelers -7! 

40* (NFL) - Sunday Night Football NO-BRAINER (Titans +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 7.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I think the perception with Tennessee is that they are going to fall flat on their face without Derrick Henry at running back. 

I'm not saying it's not a big blow to this team, but I think we are definitely seeing a big overreaction with this line because of Henry's absence. I think Adrian Peterson is going to surprise some people with how well he plays. People forget how good this guy was last year on a bad Lions team. 

Tennessee is also not all run. They can beat you with the passing game with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has also really picked up his game of late. In his last 3 games, he's got 25 passes for 379 yards (had 10 catches for 130 yards in the previous 4 games). 

This is also not the same elite defense for the Rams that we saw a year ago. Not to say they aren't an above average unit on that side of the ball, they just don't look to be on par to last year and some of that is definitely losing their defensive coordinator. Also, Keep in mind that 5 of their 8 opponents have been some bad offensive teams in the Colts, Bears, Giants, Lions and Texans. Give me the Texans +7.5! 

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Packers +7.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Packers as a 7.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Not having Aaron Rodgers is a big blow to Green Bay's chances of winning this game, but that's not to say the Packers can't win this game with Jordan Love at quarterback. 

Kansas City has shown nothing to this point of the season to make me think they can blow out a team like Green Bay. Daniel Jones and the Giants almost beat KC last week in a prime time game and that was one the Chiefs had to have. 

Everyone just wants to assume that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team is going to flip a switch and just go right back to being the same team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. I just don't see it. Mahomes is not right. He's not seeing the field well at all and to me it looks like he's playing way to fast and not letting it come to him. He's trying to be the hero on every play. 

You also got to looks at this Chiefs defense. They have played better of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Green Bay should be able to use their running game to really make the game easy for Love. I would not be shocked at all if Love came out and played well. I think KC wins the game, but I think this going to be a 1-score game in the 4th quarter that could go either way. Give me the Packers +7.5! 

50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK) 

I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage. 

This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week. 

Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special. 

This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK! 

40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Chargers -1) 

I'm shocked the Chargers are only a 1-point favorite at the Eagles in Week 9. It almost makes me wonder if there's some covid problems or something we don't know about with LA. Unfortunately you just can't handicap that and I just can't pass up on this line. 

I'm not sure why the Eagles are getting this much respect from the books. Sure they looked great in last week's 44-6 win over the Lions, but I loved Philly in that game. They were laying just 3.5 on the road vs an awful Detroit team that was in a massive letdown spot. The Lions were coming off a devastating 19-28 loss at the Rams. A game they led 19-17 going into the 4th quarter. Losing how they did definitely played into the bad spot, but it was also the emotional letdown from playing as hard as they could for Goff in his first game vs his former team. 

The other two wins for Philly are a 21-18 road win against a struggling Panthers team and a Week 1 win over the Falcons. We saw them lose 21-41 at Dallas, 30-42 at home to the Chiefs and 22-28 at home to the Bucs. In those 3 games the Eagles defense gave up an average of 416.7 ypg. 

I got some concerns with the Chargers defense, but there's no reason I can find that would make me think Justin Herbert and that LA offense won't have their way on Sunday. 

I do get the Eagles are a good running team and the Chargers have not been good vs the run, but I don't think it's bad enough that Philly is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this game. Another thing with Philly's run game is they lost their top back in Miles Sanders before that Lions game. Something I don't think that's getting much attention because the Eagles just had 236 rushing yards in that win over the Lions. I really think LA should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me the Chargers -1! 

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Giants +3) 

I will take my chances with the Giants as a 3-point home dog against the Raiders. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Giants team the past couple of weeks. They had dominating 25-3 win over the Panthers as a 3-point home dog in Week 7 and then went on the road and gave the Chiefs all they could handle in a 17-20 loss on Monday Night Football. 

The offense still has a ways to go, but that defense has really impressed me. They held the Panthers to a mere 173 total yards and then only gave up 368 to Mahomes and the Chiefs. A game no one wants to give them any credit for. All everyone wants to talk about is how bad KC is playing. 

On the flip side of this, I really have a hard time seeing Las Vegas showing up and playing well in this game given what's happened to their young star wide out Henry Ruggs III. For those that don't know, Ruggs III drove drunk and killed somebody this past week and will be spending the next 10 years or so in prison. Ruggs currently leads LV in receiving with 469 yards and was averaging a team-best 19.5 yards/reception. Not having that big play guy is going to make it that much harder on Carr and this offense. 

It's also nothing like when they came out fired out with something to prove after Gruden was fired. Focusing on football will be really hard for this Raiders team not just this week but the rest of the season. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants didn't win this game in a blowout. Give me New York +3! 

40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +6.5)

I just think there's too much value to pass up a play on the Vikings as a 6.5-point dog against the Ravens. A lot of people were burned by Minnesota in last week's loss to the Cowboys, as everyone was on them with the Cowboys playing without Prescott. Not only did the Vikings not cover, they lost the game outright. 

I also think people are drawn to bet Baltimore with the Ravens coming off their bye week. Having the extra rest is nice and all, but the number here has been inflated because of it. I also think there's this perception that the Ravens are this elite team, when they haven't really played like one. 

Baltimore's 5-2 record looks great, but they could very easily be 2-5. They trailed 17-28 in the 4th quarter of a 36-35 win over the Chiefs, needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Lions 19-17 and somehow beat the Colts 31-25 in OT after trailing 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Lamar Jackson has been sacked 3 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. The defense is also not what we are use to seeing. The biggest weakness being their secondary. 

If they can just give Kirk Cousins a little bit of time in the pocket, he's going to have a huge game here. Either way, I see this as a one score game in the 4th quarter, making it an easy play on Minnesota. Give me the Vikings +6.5! 

50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5) 

I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite. 

What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort. 

As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets. 

On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS MONEYMAKER (Indiana +20.5) 

I've been down this road before with Indiana and it hasn't gone well. I played them at almost the exact same number at home a couple weeks ago against Ohio State and they lost the game 54-7. I just can't help myself by roll the dice with the Hoosiers, especially given the spot for the Wolverines. 

Michigan is coming off a devastating 33-37 loss to in-state rival Michigan State. That loss snapped the Wolverines perfect 7-0 start to the season and it's one that will be tough to get over. Not just from who the game was against, but how it played out with them leading by 30-14 in the 2nd half and not being able to hold on. 

You also got to take into consideration that they got a much bigger game on deck at Penn State next week, making this a bit of a sandwich spot for Michigan. Keep in mind that while Indiana got destroyed by the Buckeyes, they did only lost 15-20 at home to Michigan State the week prior. I just don't think the Wolverines are good enough offensively to win here by 3 or more touchdowns, especially given the big letdown hurdle they have to overcome. Give me the Hoosiers +20.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (ISU -6.5) 

I really like Iowa State as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Longhorns. I think it's a really good buy low spot on the Cyclones off a shocking 31-38 loss at West Virginia. The absence of linebacker Mike Rose was definitely felt in the loss to the Mountaineers, but he will be back for this game. 

I know both of these teams have all but played their way out of the Big 12 title game, but there's still some hope that if ISU can win out they could sneak back into the mix. It's not crazy to think that Oklahoma St and Baylor could lose two more conference games and if ISU beats Oklahoma, they would need just one more setback by the Sooners to own the tie-breaker on them (OU still has to play at Baylor or OK State). 

It's a different story for Texas. After last week's 24-31 loss at Baylor, there really isn't a path for the Longhorns with 3 conference losses already, especially given they have already lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Baylor. 

All that's left for Texas is to play for pride and that can be tough for a program like the Longhorns who expect to be contending for National Championships. 

You also got to wonder if the way Texas has been losing doesn't set them up for an absolute meltdown. The Longhorns had a 21-10 lead in the 2nd half of their loss vs Baylor. The week before they were 17-3 early and 24-13 in the 2nd half of a 24-32 loss to the Cowboys. The game before that they blew a 38-20 halftime lead vs Oklahoma. Give me Iowa State -6.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH (Iowa -12) 

I was clearly on the wrong side with Iowa +3.5 in last week's ugly loss at Wisconsin. So were a lot of others. I just think most will have a hard time coming back with the Hawkeyes as a double-digit road favorite against a Northwestern program that has given them problems in the past. I'm not only going to fire back on Iowa, I'm loading up on the Hawkeyes this Saturday. 

The biggest difference between Iowa's 6-0 start and their back-to-back ugly losses to Purdue and Wisconsin is turnovers. Iowa was winning the turnover battle at an alarming rate in their 6-0 start. They are -6 in that department in their last 2 games. You also got to look at the fact that they just played two really good defenses. 

I just think it has Iowa way undervalued here against an awful Northwestern team. The Wildcats were one of the few teams that didn't bring back a plethora of starters and they really didn't do anything in the transfer portal. You can see it in the numbers. The Wildcats are scoring just 19.0 ppg and are giving up 27.1 ppg. Numbers that get a lot worse if you just look at conference play, as they are only scoring 14.0 ppg and giving up 35 ppg in Big Ten play. 

Not only are they giving up a ton of points, they are allowing 457.8 ypg and giving up close to 6 yards/carry vs the run. If Iowa can run the football, they can move the ball and I just don't see that Northwestern offense being able to have the kind of success needed to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Hawkeyes -12! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Arkansas -5) 

I think a lot of people are going to be hesitant to take the Razorbacks in this game after just watching Mississippi State roll Kentucky 31-17 at home last week. You might remember that line stunk, as we had an unranked Bulldogs team listed as the favorite over the No. 12 ranked team in the country. 

Not only are people going to think twice about betting against Mississippi State, there's been a lot to get excited about with this Arkansas team after their 4-0 start that saw them knock off both Texas and Texas A&M. 

The biggest thing that brought the Razorbacks back to reality was the schedule. They had to play back-to-back road games against Georgia and Ole Miss before hosting a very underrated Auburn team that I think some people are starting to realize just how good they are. 

They snapped their 3-game skid, but it was against a cupcake in Arkansas-Pine Bluff. No one is going to read anything into that result. 

For me it's all about the eye test and I just think Arkansas is a really good football team and when you look at the matchup, there's reason to believe we are getting a great price on the Razorbacks. 

The strength of this Arkansas defense is their secondary. Going into the season, I had them as a Top 25 secondary in the nation. They have more than lived up to the hype. They rank 8th overall and 4th among Power 5 teams in passing yards allowed per game at 167.5. 

I just don't think it's the DNA of a Mike Leach offense to not throw the ball at all costs. Regardless if that's the best strategy to attack the defense you are playing. They remind me a lot of the Chiefs in the NFL. Even though teams are 100% playing pass, they continue to throw it when the running lanes are there. 

So while the passing yards may be there for Mississippi State in the end, I don't think they are going to be able to put a ton of points on the board. Keep in mind, it can be really hard to score in the redzone when you can't run and the other team has the talent to defend the pass. 

If a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.6 yards/play can give us anything, I see this being a very comfortable win for Arkansas. It also doesn't hurt that Arkansas comes into this game off a bye. Give me the Razorbacks -5! 

50* (CFB) - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -2.5) 

I love NC State laying less than a field goal on the road against Florida State. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how it is that the Wolfpack are this shot of a favorite against a FSU team that is just 3-5.

I think when a line looks off like this, you can almost talk yourself into taking the other side and I've heard a heck of a lot more people picking FSU in this game than I have people siding with NC State. The fact that not everyone is screaming take the Wolfpack, makes me feel a lot more comfortable backing NC State. 

I think the biggest thing that gets lost with this handicap is the emotional letdown that has to come from last week's game at Clemson. A game they led 20-17 until giving up a TD to the Tigers in the final minute of regulation. I know Clemson is down, but these other ACC teams don't care. The Tigers are still the biggest game on the schedule. 

So while there will be those that play the card that FSU will want to play spoiler against NC State's quest to win the ACC Atlantic, I'm just not buying it. 

I also don't love the matchup at all for the Seminoles. FSU is a pretty one-dimensional offense that really needs to be able to run the ball and are going up against stingy NC State defense that is giving up just 18 ppg and 339.8 ypg in ACC play. Wolfpack also give up just 3.5 yards/carry vs the run. FSU's defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 415.4 ypg in ACC play. Give me the Wolfpack -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma State -2.5) 

I was lucky enough to get in on the Cowboys -2.5 before the line jumped to -3.5 and I would still recommend a play on Oklahoma State at -3.5. 

It took me some time to come around on this Oklahoma State team and while I think more and more are jumping on the Gundy bandwagon, I still feel like this Cowboys team doesn't get the respect they deserve. We have seen this week in and week out with this team, as they come in having covered 6 straight games. 

There's also been nothing fluky about it. Oklahoma State has outgained every team during this stretch, including the game they lost against ISU. Cowboys are outgaining teams on the season by 100 ypg and by 154.6 ppg in their 5 Big 12 games. W. Virginia is getting outgained by only 2 yards/game, but are giving up 400.2 ypg in Big 12 games. 

I also think you got to look at the two defenses in play. Oklahoma State is giving up just 17 ppg, 274.8 ypg and 4.8 yards/play in Big 12 games. The Mountaineers are allowing 26.4 ppg, 400.2 ypg and 6.4 yards/play in Big 12 games. 

Offensively I would say the two teams are pretty even, so it really comes down to me, who I think can get the stops needed and that's a pretty easy one. Just feels like to me the Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect from winning outright their last two games vs TCU and ISU.

I know you could say the Cyclones and Cowboys are even, but keep in mind that ISU didn't have the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Mike Rose in that loss to the Mountaineers. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5

40* (CFB) - Situational Public Money ATS MASSACRE (TCU +7)

I just got to take a shot here with TCU as a 7-point home dog against Baylor. These two teams from the state of Texas do not like each other, I think even more so there's a real hatred from the TCU side. 

I kind of had this game circled as a big effort game for TCU when I looked at the games Sunday and then we found out that head coach Gary Patterson was being let go. I just thought there was going to be motivation from the Horned Frogs not only from being a home dog, but also the chance to spoil one of their biggest rivals quest to make the Big 12 title game. 

Now we should get as big an effort as TCU can muster after Patterson leaving, as teams always seem to lay it all on the line in that first game after a coach gets fired. 

I'm also just not quite sold on this Baylor team. One thing that I think gets overlooked in their 7-1 start, is the fact that they have played just 3 true road games and two of those were cupcake opponents in Texas State and Kansas. The one good team they played was Oklahoma State and they lost 24-14 while getting outgained 401 to 280 (24-10 first downs). Give me the Horned Frogs +7! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (California -11.5) 

I got no problem laying the 11.5 on the road with Cal, as the Golden Bears will travel to Tucson to take on a winless Arizona team. I just think a lot of people will look and see that Cal is just 3-5 and will have a hard time trusting the Bears to cover double-digits on the road, especially after Arizona just covered their last two games as a double-digit dog. The Wildcats lost 16-21 at home to Washington as a 17.5-point dog and 34-41 at USC as a 21.5 point dog. 

Simply put, the market has adjusted some on Arizona after those results and now it's time to go the other way. I also think this Cal team might be one of the more underrated squads in the country. The Golden Bears are just 3-5, but a lot of that is some bad luck in close games. They are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. 

They come in having covered 3 straight and have really done some impressive things offensively in this stretch. Over this 3-game span they are as balanced as it gets, averaging 207.7 rushing yards/game and 244.7 passing yards/game. This includes a road game at Oregon and a home game against a very good Oregon State team. 

Cal is also 3-5 despite outscoring their opponents by 1.6 ppg and outgaining them by 57 ypg. Arizona is 0-8 for good reason. They are getting outscored by 15.0 ppg and outgained by 30 ypg. Give me Cal -11.5! 

40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +39) 

I'm will take my chances with Missouri losing by less than 40 in their game against No. 1 ranked Georgia on Saturday. I just think the public perception is that no matter what the line is, there's no way they are going to bet against the Bulldogs against a team like Missouri. 

I get it. Georgia has been incredible and certainly look like the best team in the country, but asking any team to win a conference game by 40+ is a lot. 

Now I know the Bulldogs defense has not allowed more than 13 points in a game this season, but if there's one game they might not be as locked in on that side, it's this one. Georgia just beat arguably their biggest rival last week in Florida, which many thought was their last real test leading up to the SEC title game. 

Just that game alone could spark a letdown, but it's really the 4th straight big game that the Bulldogs have played. It started with a home game against an undefeated Arkansas team back in early October. They then went on the road to Auburn before hosting another undefeated team in Kentucky. Ending with the game against Florida. Add in the massive spread and it's going to be hard for Georgia to take this one seriously. 

There's also no incentive anymore to blow teams out once they are up big. Georgia's path to the payoff is paved as long as they just win out. Given the schedule they have just played, this feels like a game where if it does get out of hand, the starters could get pulled a little earlier than normal. 

Even if Missouri only scores 13, I think they will be able to get to 20, it would take 60 points from Georgia to cover this game. Give me the Tigers +39! 

40* (NCAAF) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3) 

I'll take my chances with Boston College as a home dog in Friday's home game against Virginia Tech. This line is begging you to take the Hokies, as Virginia Tech comes in off a 26-17 win and cover as a 3-point road dog at Georgia Tech, while the Eagles enter on a 4-game losing streak. A horrific stretch offensively for the Eagles, who have scored just 13, 7, 14 and 6 points respectively. 

Simply put the line here stinks and when something smells this bad, especially in a weeknight game, you got to look the other way. Note that even with everyone running to place a bet on the Hokies, this line is not moving. That tells me the books have got some respected money on BC and do not want to give out the 3.5 to the wiseguys. 

I think the biggest thing that's getting overlooked with Va Tech, is prior to winning and covering against Georgia Tech this past Saturday, they were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games. 

It's a great sell high spot on the Hokies, who have looked great offensively in their last two games and have taken great care of the ball. History backs this up. Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after 2 straight games where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 on the road after 2 straight games where they didn't have a single turnover. 

We also see that road favorites who are not good vs the run (allow 4.75 or more yards/carry) and have given up 5.5 or more yards/carry in each of their last 2 games are just 14-39 (26.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me BC +3! 

40* (NFL) Jets/Colts TNF VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -10) 

I'm shocked we have seen this much overreaction from last week. The lookahead on this game was around the Colts -14 and we are getting them at -10. Everyone is jumping on the Mike White bandwagon after his 400+ yard performance in his first ever start last week against the Bengals. 

I just think that big game by White was more a culprit of the Bengals just not showing up to play after such a big game the previous week against Baltimore and it being their 3rd straight road game. Not to mention the Jets had just lost 13-54 the previous week to the Pats. 

I just think if White was as good as he looked in that start, he would have somehow forced his way onto the field before now. Guy was drafted back in 2018. 

I also think there's a narrative out there that with the Colts heartbreaking 31-34 OT loss last week to the Titans their season is now over with them sitting at just 3-5 and and essentially 4-games back of Tennessee in the AFC South. 

No questions is a much bigger uphill climb after losing that game, but I'm not buying at all that this team is going to just throw in the towel with more than half of the schedule still to play. I like the Colts to win here and win going away. Give me Indianapolis -10! 

40* (CFB) - Wednesday MACtion MONEYMAKER (C Michigan +9.5) 

Give me the Chippewas as a 9.5-point dog against the Broncos in Wednesday's battle for the Victory Cannon. I like to lean to the dog in rivalry games like this, but this was a no-brainer for me. I don't understand at all why Western Michigan is laying more than a touchdown in this game. It just feels like to me that the market is a little high on this Broncos team and I think a lot of it has to do with that early season road win at Pitt. 

Central Michigan is just 4-4, but two of their losses were non-conference games on the road against SEC teams. Their 2 conference losses have been a 11-point loss on the road against a good Miami (OH) team and a 1-point loss to arguably the best team in the league in Northern Illinois. 

Central Michigan's offense is built around the passing game. They come in averaging 285 ypg thru the air. That's worth noting, as these kind of pass heavy offenses have given Western Michigan problems. The Broncos are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. Give me the Chippewas +9.5! 

40* (NFL) - Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +4.5) 

We may have missed the best number, but I still see more than enough value with the Pats at +4.5 to back them. I think a lot of people have really fallen in love with this Chargers team and at the same time don't trust this New England team. 

The Pats are just 3-4 going into Week 8 with two of their wins coming against the Jets and the other against the Texans. With that said, they are dangerously close to being 6-1.

They had 1st and 10 at the Dolphins 11 yard line down 16-17 and fumbled the ball with just minutes to play. They were a missed 56 yard FG away from being up 20-19 on TB with less than a minute to play. They were up 21-20 on Dallas with the ball and 2:34 on the clock and threw a pick-six. They get a 75-yard TD on their next series to lead 29-26, only to let the Cowboys get a FG and then go on to lose in OT. Even in their 28-13 loss to the Saints they outgained NO 300-252. 

As for the Chargers, they are a good team, but I don't think they are as good as what people think. They were lucky to win that game at KC in Week 3 and somehow they get that 47-42 win over the Browns after trailing by 14 in the 2nd half. 

The biggest thing that gets overlooked with LA is their defense and the inability it has at stopping the run. No body is better at exploiting a team's weakness than Belichick and there is a massive mismatch in this game in favor of the Pat's O-line and the Chargers defensive front (the front 7 for LA is awful outside of Bosa). 

I also like Belichick and his defense to make things a little difficult on Justin Herbert. If you remember last year when these two teams played, Herbert was a mere 26 of 53 for 209 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs in a 45-0 Pats win. Give me New England +4.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3)

Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback. 

It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over. 

Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. 

Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3! 

40* (NFL) - Situational No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Browns -3.5) 

I'm going to take the Cleveland Browns as a -3.5 point home favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just feel like the number here is way too low. I just think all the questions around this Browns team with their lengthy injury report and how much the offensive struggled in last week's game against the Broncos, has Cleveland way undervalued going into this matchup. 

There's no definite word out there on Browns starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, but when he was asked this week about his non throwing shoulder, he said it was feeling a lot better and there's absolutely a chance he plays. Even if he doesn't play, I don't feel the drop off to backup Case Keenum is all that much. Keenum didn't wow us in his start vs Denver, but he wasn't horrible. Most importantly he took care of the football with no turnovers. 

Cleveland is also optimistic that they will have stud running back Nick Chubb back, though I don't think they are in terrible hands if they have to go with D'Ernest Johnson after watching how hard this guy ran it last week. Johnson carried it 22 times for 146 yards and the Broncos couldn't stop him knowing he was getting the ball. 

I just think that regardless if Mayfield and Chubb suit up, this Browns team will be able to do some things offensively at home against this Steelers defense. Everyone loves to praise this Pittsburgh defense, but it's not been as elite as what people think. They are giving up 5.8 yards/play and facing a Browns offense that averages 6.3 yards/play. They are also middle of the back vs the run, giving up 4.2 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense to do anything against this Browns defense. Pittsburgh only averages 5.3 yards/play and that drops to 4.9 yards/play on the road. Cleveland only gives up 5.3 yards/play and a mere 4.5 yards/play at home. 

I just think the Browns have the edge on both sides of the ball in this game and this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Keep in mind the Steelers were a 6.5-point dog at Buffalo and 6-point dog at Green Bay. Two teams I rate very closely to Cleveland at this point in the season. Give me the Browns -3.5! 

40* (NFL) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Eagles -3.5)

I really like the Eagles at this price and I love the situation that this game falls in. Every one has thrown Philadelphia under the bus after their 2-5 start. So much so that the betting public is wanting to play the Lions in this game as a mere 3.5-point dog. 

The one thing that people can use to convince themselves that Detroit is the play, is the fact that the Lions play hard and it's got them to keep some games closer than expected. I think in any sport, bad teams who play hard can do that, largely because the opponent doesn't bring their 'A' game against them. 

I got to believe that even at 2-5, the Eagles aren't quite to the breaking point of giving up on their season. While the top 5 teams all look great in the NFC, it's really a mixed bag after that. It's anyone's game for those final two wild card spots. 

I just think if the Eagles come to play, they can not only win this game, but win it going away. Keep in mind the Eagles have just gone through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule playing @ Dallas, home vs KC, @ Carolina, home vs TB and @ Las Vegas. 

I also wonder just how much fight the Lions are going to have this week. Detroit just put everything they had into beating the Rams last week, as they really wanted to get Goff a win vs his old team. Give me the Eagles -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Louisville +7) 

I'm going to take the Louisville Cardinals as a 7-point road dog against the NC State Wolfpack. I just feel like this is way too many points for NC State to be laying in this game. I just don't get the love people have with this Wolfpack team. 

Everyone was on them last week as a short road favorite at Miami and they lost that game outright. It just feels like to me that when NC State had that 27-21 OT win at home against Clemson early in the year, the perception of this team went way up, when it turns out that it really wasn't that impressive of a win. 

Everyone wants to talk about how good the NC State defense is, but I'm not as sold on them being as elite as the numbers. The Wolfpack come in giving up just 16.7 ppg, 313 ypg and 4.9 yards/play. I just feel a lot of that is a result of who they have played. We saw La Tech put up 480 yards on this defense a few weeks ago and Miami with a backup QB had 420 last week. 

I just have a hard time seeing NC State being able to contain one of the most underrated players in college football in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. This guy has thrown for 1,684 yards and completed 63.4% of his attempts, while also rushing for 480 yards and 13 TDs. Those 13 TDS are tied for the most rushing TDs by any player in the country and he's had at least 2 on the ground in all but one game this season. 

The other thing to note about this Cardinals team, is they are a couple bad breaks away from coming into this game on a 6-game win streak. They lost on a last second field goal at Wake Forest, who is currently 7-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. They also had a 33-34 loss at home to Virginia, where they had a 30-13 lead going into the 4th quarter. There only other loss was the opener against Ole Miss, where they played an awful 1st half of football. 

I just see these two teams as more of equals and feel the number here should be something more along the lines of NC State as a 3-point home favorite. Give me the Cardinals +7! 

40* (CFB) - Situational Mismatch ATS BLOWOUT (Wake Forest -16.5) 

Normally I would be hesitant to lay a number like this with a team like Wake Forest, who is getting all kinds of love with their 7-0 start that has them ranked No. 13 in the country. The thing is, I just think the books can be a little slower to inflate the numbers on a program like Wake Forest, who hasn't been in this spot before and really wasn't expected to be here. 

I just don't know how when you look at the matchup here, you don't feel good about the Demon Deacons winning this game by at least 17 points. Duke is 0-3 in ACC play and have been outscored on average in those 3 losses by a score of 39.0 to 11.3. 

The Blue Devils have shown zero ability to slow down a good offensive team and this Wake Forest team is really special on the offensive side of the ball. The Demon Deacons are averaging 43.1 ppg, 470 ypg and 6.6 yards/play and that's against teams who on average only give up 29.8 ppg, 384 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. Duke is giving up 31.6 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

I know the Wake Forest defense has given up a lot of points in their last 3 games. They allowed 34 to Louisville, 37 to Syracuse and 56 to Army last week. The thing is, Louisville has one of the best QBs in the country, the Orange have one of the best RBs in the country and Army has that triple-option attack. In their 4 other games this season they didn't allow more than 17 points in any game. I think Duke could get to 20 points and still fail to cover by more than a touchdown, as I think WF is going to put up 40+. Give me the Demon Deacons -16.5! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Syracuse -6) 

I will gladly lay the 6-points at home with the Orange against the Eagles. I just think we are still seeing BC get a little bit too much respect from their 4-0 start. They appeared to back up that strong start with a close 13-19 loss at Clemson, but that's proven to be more a result of the Tigers just not being very good. Since that game the Eagles have lost 7-33 at home to NC State and 14-28 at Louisville. That's now 3 straight games where BC has failed to score more than 14 points. 

That struggling offense will now be up against a good Syracuse defense that is giving up just 24.6 ppg, 325 ypg and 5.0 yards/play. It's also worth pointing out how much better the Orange D has played at home, where they are giving up just 288 ypg, 4.4 yards/play and 2.2 yards/rush. 

On the flip side of this, The Eagles defense doesn't match the numbers. BC is giving up just 20.7 ppg and 345 ypg, but a lot of that had to with their 3 non-conference games against Colgate, UMass and Temple. 

Just last week we saw Louisville rack up 331 rushing yards on this Eagles defense and now they must figure out a way to slow down one of the best backs in the country in Sean Tucker, who already has over 1,000 yards on the ground (1,060). Not to mention, they got a QB who can run it, as Garrett Shrader has 592 yards and he wasn't even the starter to start the year. Combined Tucker and Shrader have 22 rushing scores this season. I just don't think it's asking a lot here for the Orange to win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Syracuse -6! 

40* (CFB) - Public Money BOOKIE MASSACRE (Washington St +16.5) 

I'm more than happy to take a shot here with Washington State as a 16.5-point road dog against the Sun Devils in Saturday's Pac-12 action. Everyone was running to bet against the Cougars last week when the news came out that Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich and several assistants were being let go because of them not willing to get vaccinated. 

While the Cougars did end up losing 19-21 at home to BYU, they cashed as a 3.5-point dog. That's now 5 straight covers for Washington State and I think they are way undervalued again, as the perception now becomes that the Cougars played their hearts out after losing their coach and are going to fall flat on their face on the road against a good Arizona State team. 

I'm just not buying it. I think if anything what happened with Rolovich has brought this Washington State even closer together as a team and they are going to go out and lay everything they have on the line in this game. 

I'm not saying they are going to be able to win the game, but I really like them to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Cougars +16.5! 

40* (CFB) - Big Money ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Iowa +3.5) 

I'm going against my traditional ways here, as I'm almost always included to tank an unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. I just don't think the line here is justified. Prior to the Hawkeyes losing that game against Purdue a couple weeks ago, the lookahead for this game was Iowa -2.5. 

I know the Hawkeyes looked bad in the loss to the Boilermakers, but this is still the same team that started out the season 6-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the country. Iowa also has a massive edge here in rest, as the Hawkeyes are coming off a bye (3-0 ATS L3 seasons off a bye), where Wisconsin had to play a physical game against Purdue last week. You also have to keep in mind that the Boilermakers are a team that has just had Iowa's number under Jeff Brohm. 

The biggest thing that Purdue was able to do in that game was throw the football. Aidan O'Connell threw for 375 yards with 240 of those yards going to wide out David Bell. Wisconsin just isn't going to be able to do anything close to that with Graham Mertz. The guy has had 10 or fewer completions in each of the Badgers last 4 games. 

I just feel like in a game that figures to be extremely low scoring and more than likely decided by a field goal, you can't pass up on the Hawkeyes catching over a field goal. Give me Iowa +3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER (E Carolina -9.5) 

I got no problem laying 9.5 with the Pirates at home against South Florida on Thursday. I actually think there's some decent value here with East Carolina laying fewer than two touchdowns. It just feels like to me that we are getting a good price on the Pirates due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses, while the Bulls are fresh off a 34-14 blowout win against Temple as a mere 1.5-point favorite. 

I just think that game for USF was an aberration for this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Prior to that game against the Owls, the Bulls had given up at least 32 in the 5 other games they have played against a FBS opponent. I just have a really hard time seeing South Florida being able to go on the road and keep a talented Pirates offense in check. 

On the flip side of this, I think it's going to be really hard for South Florida to go score for score with ECU to keep this game competitive. The Bulls are as one dimensional as it gets offensively for a team that isn't running the triple-option. USF is averaging 44 rush attempts compared to just 26 pass attempts a game. Last week against Temple they ran it a ridiculous 73 times. 

ECU is in no way an elite defensive team, but they also aren't as bad as the numbers would suggest. They give up 28.4 ppg and 430 ypg, but it's come against opponents that average 31.1 ppg and 431 ypg. They are only giving up 4.2 yards/carry vs the run and that drops to 3.3 yards/carry at home. They have also been better of late vs the run, giving up just 126.8 ypg over their last 4. Last week they went on the road and held Houston to just 87 rushing yards. If they can just get a few stops early in this game, this thing is going to get out of hand. Give me the Pirates -9.5! 

40* (NF) - Saints/Seahawks MNF Vegas Insider (Seahawks +4) 

I like the Seahawks as a 4-point home dog against the Saints on Monday Night Football. I just don't think New Orleans should be favored by more than a field goal in this game. Seattle is just getting way undervalued right now because of the injury to Russell Wilson. 

We saw it last week in prime time, as the Seahawks went off as a 5.5-point dog at Pittsburgh. They wound up losing the game, but covered in a 20-23 defeat. A game they were only outgained 309 to 345. 

I just don't see a lot of difference in the Steelers and the Saints. Both of those teams have not looked very good offensively and both rely a ton on their defense. 

I know the Seattle defense isn't great, but the biggest thing they have struggled with is stopping teams that can throw the ball efficiently. That's not the strength of this Saints offense. The most yards New Orleans has had passing in any game was 271 and that was against the Football Team. They have had 235 or fewer in every other game. 

The weather should also help the Seahawks defense, as it's expected to be an awful night in Seattle with a near 100% chance of rain and winds pushing 20 mph. 

I think Geno Smith can do enough in what probably ends up being a very low scoring game to keep Seattle within a field goal and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Give me the Seahawks +4! 

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bears +13) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 13-point road dog against the Bucs. We saw it last year with the Chiefs after their SB win, the books just got tired of people winning money on them and they started to inflate their spreads by what felt like more than a FG per game. 

I think we are seeing the same thing with Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are just 2-4 ATS to start the year and both of their covers were a bit fortunate. They won 48-25 against the Falcons as a 13-point favorite after going into the 4th quarter leading by a score of just 28-25. They also covered double-digits against the Dolphins where they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter. 

Chicago isn't a great team, but they are a heck of a lot better than the Falcons and Dolphins, yet they are being priced the same. 

I know Fields hasn't been the guy we thought we were going to get after his great preseason performances, but some of that in my opinion is coaching. While I'm not banking on anything, I do think there's reason to be optimistic he can get something going against this banged up Bucs secondary. 

The other big thing for me, is I think Chicago's got a very underrated defense. Since giving up 34 in their opener to the Rams, they haven't allowed more than 30 in their last 5 games. Last week they held Green Bay to just 24 points and Aaron Rodgers and that Packers pass attack had just 169 thru the air. Tom Brady is great, but he is going to have to make it work in this game without two of his best options in tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Antonio Brown. Give me the Bears +13! 

40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3)

I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point road favorite against the New York Giants in Week 7 of the NFL. Even after that tough loss we took with the Panthers in last week's OT loss at home to the Vikings, I'm not going to let that deter me from backing this team laying just a field goal against a bad Giants team that appears to be getting worse and worse as the season progresses. 

I know this is going to be a big public play with everyone looking to fade the Giants right now, but we have seen a number of these short road favorites cover in recent weeks. I just think more than anything, we are getting value with the Panthers because of the fact that they come into this game having lost and failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. 

Sam Darnold has been a big reason why Carolina has seen their season to a complete 180 flip after their 3-0 start. After throwing just 1 interception in that perfect 3-0 start to the season, Darnold has thrown 6 picks in the last 3 games. 

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule appears to have had enough of trying to let the offense rely on the arm of Darnold. After the loss to the Vikings, Rhule came out and said the offense is going to have a vastly different look and is going to focus everything around the run game. 

It's up in the air if this plan of attack can work long-term without Christian McCaffrey as the lead back, but I do think it's the right game plan against the Giants. In New York's last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 167.3 rushing yards/game. 

I also think you got to look at how much the Giants offense is struggling to score. New York can't run the ball and Daniel Jones looks to be in over his head with all the injuries the Giants have around him on offense.

Highly unlikely that Saquon Barkley will be back for this game, they also figure to be missing talented rookie wide out Kadarius Toney. Two other wide outs, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are also both question. It's not just the skill players, they just lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and are now down three of their Week 1 starters on the offensive line, as starting guard Shane Lemieux and center Nick Gates are likely out for the year. 

This just feels to me like the perfect get right spot for Carolina and we are getting them at quite the discount. Give me the Panthers -3! 

40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Patriots -6.5) 

I was considering the Pats at -7, but was hoping this thing would drop to 6.5 at some point during the week and it did. I just think that because the Patriots come into this game at 2-4 there's value on them right now. NE has not been as bad as their record. The only game they lost that they didn't have a legit shot at winning is their Week 3 game against the Saints. They lost by 1-point against the Dolphins where they fumbled the game away, lost by 2 at home to the Bucs where they missed a late FG and just lost 29-35 at home in OT to the Cowboys. 

One of their two wins came against these Jets, which they won going away 25-6. As he often does, Bill Belichick devised a game plan that made life miserable for a rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson completed just 19 of 33 attempts for 210 yards and 0 TD passes to 4 interceptions. It's not going to be any easier the second time around, especially on the road against a Pats team that will be all in to get back in the win column this week. Give me the Patriots -6.5! 

50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play.

That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home. 

On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense. 

Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5! 

40* (CFB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Indiana +21) 

I'll take the 3 touchdowns at home with the Hoosiers, as they will host 5th ranked Ohio State under the lights at a sold out Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. I just think we are getting too good a price here with Indiana in this spot. 

No question it's been a disappointing season for the Hoosiers, who come into this game with a mere 2-4 record. However, it's not a big surprise to me. Indiana U7.5 was one of my favorite win total bets in college football this year. 

I don't foresee them winning this game, but I do think there's reason to believe they can keep it within the number. 

With Iowa getting upset last week at Purdue and the Buckeyes seeming to have figured things out since that loss to Oregon with 4 straight wins, the hype has returned in a big way around this Ohio State team. 

I know they have dominated in their 4-game winning streak, outscoring their 4 opponents in this stretch by an average score of 54.5 to 14.3 (40.2 ppg). The thing is, those 4 wins are against Tulsa, Akron, Rutgers and Maryland. 

Keep in mind the Buckeyes were only a 15-point road favorite at Rutgers a few weeks ago, so you can really see how the perception of this team has changed over the last month. 

The key here is that as disappointing as this season has been for Indiana, you know they are going to be up for this game. In fact, I think to them it's almost like it's their Super Bowl, as it's going to take a remarkable finish for them to get to a bowl with their schedule. They can only lose two more and on top of this game have road games at Michigan and Purdue. 

There's definitely some concerns with the Hoosiers offense without Michael Penix Jr under center, but as we saw in the Texa A&M/Alabama game, sometimes bad QBs can have one of those special nights. That's what I'm hoping for with backup Jack Tuttle. 

The even bigger thing for me, is I think this Indiana defense can give Ohio State some troubles. The Hoosiers are only giving up 333 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, which is pretty impressive when you take into account 4 of their first 6 games have come against Iowa, Cincinnati, Penn State and Michigan State. 

I also think it's worth pointing out the books have a history of over inflating the Buckeyes in this matchup. While Indiana is 0-10 SU in the last 10 meetings, they are 8-2 ATS during this stretch. Give me the Hoosiers +21! 

50* (CFB) Prime Time MAX UNIT Top Play (TCU -4.5) 

I love the Horned Frogs as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Mountaineers. I know it's been rough sledding for anyone that has been on TCU early in the year. The Horned Frogs are just 1-4-1 ATS and have lost 3 of their last 4, including a 34-42 loss at home to SMU as a 9.5-point favorite. 

I just think it's created some value here. It's not like they have lost to bad teams. Their 3 losses are against SMU, Texas and Oklahoma. I know they got destroyed by the Sooners last week, but that's a different Sooners team with Caleb Williams at quarterback and TCU was without their star running back Zach Evans (probable to play this week). 

I also don't understand the love for this West Virginia team. They are returning from their bye with a record of just 1-4, but if you look at the schedule there's reason to be cautious with this team going forward. 

The Mountaineers only win is against Virginia Tech at home 27-21 and the more we have seen out of the Hokies the less impressive they look. WV lost 24-30 to a bad Maryland team in Week 1, lost at home to an average Texas Tech team and got annihilated last time we saw them at Baylor 20-45. 

They did go on the road and give Oklahoma a major scare, losing by a final of just 13-16. However, that's back when the Sooners had Rattler at quarterback. You just can't overreact to that score. Give me TCU -4.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA -2) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but the one I really like is UCLA as a 2-point home favorite against No. 10 Oregon. 

The Bruins have taken a big step forward in year 4 under Chip Kelly and it shows with UCLA's 5-2 ATS record thru their first 7 games. They are going to need some help from Arizona State, who they lost to outright in their head-to-head matchup (Sun Devils have a very favorable schedule going forward), but if they can win this game and upset Utah on the road next week, they got a legit shot at winning the Pac 12 South and playing in the title game. 

All I'm worried about is how they will play this week against the Ducks and I think they are going to deliver one of their better showings of the season. 

I'm just not a believer in this Oregon team. Part of it's my lack of trust in quarterback Anthony Brown, but even more so it's the injury to running back C.J. Verdell. If you remember back to their upset of Ohio State, it was Verdell that was the difference in that game. Hre rushed for 161 yards and 2 scores, while also leading the team with 3 catches for 34 yards and a score. 

I really think we learned a lot about Oregon going forward in last week's game against Cal at home. They won the game 24-17, but trailed 10-17 in the 4th quarter of that game. Keep in mind that was with the Ducks coming off a bye following a loss at Stanford. The right team is favored in this game. Give me UCLA -2! 

40* (CFB) - Oklahoma St/Iowa St Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Iowa State -7) 

I'm pretty confident that if you were to bet unranked teams who are favored against a ranked opponent, you are going to profit long-term. There's 4 of them on the card this week (Wisconsin, ISU and Air Force are the other three). I'll have money on all 4, but one I really like is unranked Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against No. 8 Oklahoma State.

This line sticks out like a sore thumb. You got the No. 8 team in the country getting a full touchdown a week after they went on the road and upset No. 25 ranked Texas 32-24 as a 3.5-point dog. 

Keep in mind the public is taking the bait. Everyone is on Oklahoma State and yet we have seen this line go up from -6.5 to -7. The books are flat out telling you who they think is going to cover. 

I can definitely see why the books are putting their stock in this Iowa State team. Since Matt Campbell took over the program, this is a team that year in and year out has only gotten better as the season progresses. 

I thought they played one of their best games of the season last week on the road against a good K-State team. While a spot in the playoffs is likely out of the picture, there's definitely a path back to the Big 12 title game for the Cyclones if they beat the Cowboys. 

I just don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their 6-0 start. Their best win so far is last week's victory against Texas. A game they trailed 17-3 early and were getting Texas in a great spot after the Longhorns had that epic collapse the week before against Oklahoma. 

I just think the Cowboys are really limited offensively and that's a problem against an elite Iowa State defense. Cyclones are only giving up 16.3 ppg, 251 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. They also only give up 2.8 yards/carry against the run and this is not a good passing attack for Oklahoma State. 

I know the Cowboys have a pretty good defense of their own, but this is very good Iowa State offense. Cyclones are averaging 33.7 ppg and that's against opponents that on average only give up 25.4 ppg. If Brock Purdy plays anything close to like he did last week against the Wildcats, this game will not be close. Give me Iowa State -7! 

40* (CFB) - LSU/Ole Miss SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Ole Miss -9) 

This could completely backfire if Ole Miss ends up playing this game without starting quarterback Matt Corral, but I think this line tells you the books feel pretty confident that he will be out there on Saturday. It almost feels like it's more of Lane Kiffin just being a troll by listing him on the injury report and trying to throw off the Tigers. 

You might be asking how you can bet against LSU as more than a TD dog after watching them just upset No. 20 Florida last week 49-42 as a 12.5-point dog. I just think that was more of a result of Florida just not coming to play. With all the guys the Tigers were going to be missing, everyone was calling for a Gators blowout. If you remember, that line moved a ton in favor of Florida leading up to that game. 

I also wonder if the LSU players didn't go into that game thinking it might the last time they got to play for head coach Ed Orgeron. It certainly seemed to mean a lot more to them. 

It would have been one thing if he was fired, but instead it will be Orgeron that finishes out the 2021 season as the guy in charge. It just feels a bit awkward to me that he's sticking around. 

Either way, when a team plays with that kind of emotion and energy in a game like LSU did last week against Florida, it's really hard to come back the next week with that same intensity, especially on the road. 

I just don't see LSU being able to go score for score with Ole Miss in this game. The Tigers secondary hasn't been great this year and they haven't played anything close to the caliber a passing attack as what Ole Miss brings to the table. If we can just a few stops from the Rebels defense, this is going to get really ugly in a hurry. Give me Ole Miss -9! 

50* (CFB) Early Bird Saturday MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +3.5) 

I'm a little shocked the Orange are catching more than a field goal on the road against the Hokies. It almost feels like there's this expectation that Syracuse is going to lay an egg after that tough loss to Clemson last week. 

I would maybe buy this being a letdown if they pulled off the upset, but the fact of the matter is they lost their third straight game and are now just 3-4 after starting out 3-1. Keep in mind all 4 losses have been by 10 or fewer. 

If the Orange are serious about making a bowl, this is one they really need to get and it's a game I think they should be favored to win. I don't like what I've seen out of this Hokies team this year. Virginia Tech has a so-so quarterback in Braxton Burmeister, no real threat of a running game and a injury-plagued defense. 

This is also a Hokies defense that has had problems stopping the run. That's a problem here. Syracuse has one of the best backs in the country in freshman Sean Tucker. He's rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the Orange's last 5 games and 6 of 7 overall, including 157 last week against an elite Clemson defense. They also recently made the move to Garrett Shrader at quarterback and he's shown he can run it. Prior to be helding in check by Clemson, he rushed for 178 against Wake Forest and 137 against FSU. 

That lackluster Va Tech offense will be up against a talented Syracuse defense that is giving up just 309 ypg and 4.7 yards/play. It just feels like the Hokies are getting a little too much respect here at home. Give me the Orange +3.5! 

40* (CFB) - C Carolina/App State ATS NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +5.5) 

Everyone is on the No. 14 ranked Chanticleers as less than a touchdown favorite on the road against Appalachian State. Not only because of how great Coastal Carolina has looked in route to a 6-0 start, but a lot of people tuned into the Mountaineers game last week against Lafayette, as it was a stand alone game on Tuesday. A game App State lost 41-13 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

At this point in the season the books aren't going to just hang a bad number in a game they know is going to get bet with it being the only football game on the board Wednesday. That only makes me like the Mountaineers that much more with this too good to be true line the public is pounding with CC. 

Yes, this is a good Chanticleers team, but you couldn't have started the season with an easier schedule than what they have. Their six wins are against The Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, ULM and Arkansas State. While most of those have been blowouts, they did just barely scrape by with a 28-25 win on the road against Buffalo. 

I think it might prove to be a challenge for Coastal Carolina to take this massive of a step up in competition, especially on the road against what's going to be a pissed off Mountaineers team. App State played one of their worst games of the season in the blowout loss to the Ragin' Cajuns. They turned it over a season-high 4 times (previous high was 2) and 3 of those 4 turnovers led to short field TDs for Lafayette. 

I expect a different looking Mountaineers team on their home field against a ranked team. App State has a pretty strong home field edge. They have only lost 5 times on their home field since 2015. Give me the Mountaineers +5.5! 

50* (NFL) Bills/Titans MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Bills -6) 

I'll be the first to admit that I thought Buffalo wasn't as good as everyone was saying coming into the 2021 season. I was wrong. The Bills not only look like the best team in the AFC, but maybe the best team in the league.

I know the Cardinals hold that claim after their 6-0 start, but let's forget the Bills only loss of the season came in Week 1, where they fell 16-23 at home to the Steelers. A loss is a loss, but it didn't feel like Pittsburgh was the better team on that day.

Buffalo was up 10-0 at the half with the Steelers doing next to nothing on offense. They were still up 10-6 in the 4th quarter before they turned it over on downs, which led to a short field and a field goal. Next time they have the ball they get a punt blocked that was returned for a TD. 

Since that loss the Bills have demolished every team that has got in their way, outscoring opponents in their 4-game win streak 39.0 to 10.3! That includes last week's 38-20 beatdown of the Chiefs on the road. 

*The only thing that scares me is the Bills having a letdown after that win over KC. It clearly was a game that meant a lot to them after the Chiefs knocked beat them in last year's AFC Championship Game. 

There is reason to believe that Buffalo will show up. One, it's Monday Night Football with all the eyes on you. The other is revenge. Last year, the Bills had their 4-0 start to the season put to an end in an embarrassing 42-16 loss at Tennessee. A game many of you will remember had that epic stiff arm by Henry against Josh Norman. 

Henry is always scary to bet against, as he just take over a game, but I'm just not sold on this Titans team. They have a MASSIVE list of injuries and their 3 wins were against the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. They got destroyed Week 1 at home by the Cardinals 38-13 and have that shocking lost to the Jets back in Week 4. Give me the Bills -6! 

50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5)

I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team. 

I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep. 

You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable. 

Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5!

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Broncos -3.5) 

I'll lay the 3.5 with Denver at home against the Raiders on Sunday. I just think this Las Vegas team is in a really bad place with what's transpired over the last week with watching their head coach Jon Gruden basically be forced into resigning.

It's just a bad situation for a team that came into this season with expectations of at least making the playoffs. We have seen the offense take a massive step back the last couple of weeks and now they have to try to figure out on the fly how to go forward without their play caller in Gruden. Say what you want about Gruden as a head coach, the guy is a good offensive play caller. 

Making matters even worse is the Raiders are going up against a pretty good Broncos defense. Now you can't get too carried away with the numbers given who Denver has played, but you also can't ignore the fact that they are 3rd in the NFL right now giving up just 292.4 ypg. They also rank in the Top 10 in the NFL vs both the run and the pass. 

I can assure you that the Broncos will not in the least bit feel bad about beating up on the Raiders when they are down. These two teams despise each other. 

I'm not wild about the Denver offense, but I would much rather have the Broncos offense than the Raiders defense. Denver should do more than enough to get the win and cover at home. Give me the Broncos -3.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league.

They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback. 

I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I 

I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home.

I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league. 

I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER (Panthers +1)

I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point home dog against the Minnesota Vikings. I think we are seeing some value with Carolina, as I think they should be -2.5 at home. Big reason I think we are getting value with the Panthers is last week's horrific 2nd half against the Eagles. 

Carolina couldn't have looked any better in the 1st half of that game. If they just have a little bit of ball skills on that fumble they botched in the end zone, they probably win that game and cover. Instead it was just a safety and the offense fell apart in the 2nd half. 

I think losing that game and Sam Darnold kind of reverting back to his old ways with the Jets has really reversed how people view this team. They no longer see them as a legit playoff contender. 

I think that's a mistake and I think the Panthers respond in a big way. I really don't have a lot of concerns with the Carolina defense. They did their part once again, holding the Eagles to just 273 total yards and dominating the time of possession by more than 10 minutes. 

Offensively, Darnold isn't as bad as what he showed in the 2nd half of that game against the Eagles and let's not forget the Panthers offense was without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. He was close to returning for that game and as long as there are no setbacks in practice, he will be on the field Sunday. 

As for the Vikings, I just don't think there as good as what people think. Sure they have had a couple close games not go their way, but the fact of the matter is this team continues to find ways to lose games. They needed a last second field goal after blowing a 16-6 lead in the final 5 minutes against the winless Lions at home. That comes after a week where the offense couldn't do anything at home against the Browns. 

Vikings are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a home win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a close win by 6 points or less. Panthers have covered 10 of their last 15 with a line of +3 to -3 and are 5-1 ATS last 3 years off a upset loss as a home favorite. Give me Carolina +1! 

40* (NFL) - Big Money VEGAS INSIDER (Packers -4) 

I can't help myself here but to lay the 4-points on the road with the Packers. I know it's not wise to lay points on the road in division games, but I just don't see these two teams being anywhere close in terms of talent. 

I could be dead wrong here, but I got a pretty good feeling that the Bears holding the Raiders to just 9 points and 252 total yards last week was more a result of the news surrounding Gruden than it was this Chicago defense. 

I also think with the Bears defense, they are much better suited to stop teams that want to run the ball. They just don't have that great of talent in the secondary and are tasked in this game with going up against one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers. 

I know Green Bay isn't exactly blowing teams out, but I've really liked what I've seen out of Aaron Rodgers early on. He looks to be 100% locked in and when he's going well this team is tough to beat. 

You also have to factor in just how bad this Bears offense has been since Justin Fields became the starter. It's a bit comical how scared Chicago is of letting Fields throw the ball. How in the world is he going to do enough here to keep pace with Rodgers and that Packers offense? I don't see it. Give me Green Bay -4! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah +1) 

I'll grab the +1 with the Utah Utes at home against the Arizona State Sun Devils. I think the line here tells you everything you need to know. You have the No. 18 ranked team in the country in Arizona State the smallest of favorites and even a pick'em at a lot of books against an unranked Utes team that has gotten off to a disappointing 3-2 start. 

I just think a lot of people wrote this Utah team off after their 1-2 start, which saw them lose back-to-back non-conference games on the road against BYU and San Diego State. At that same time they also had Baylor transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer up and leave the program. 

It's hard to explain why things didn't work with Brewer, but this Utah team has looked like the team we expected to see to start the season since he left. They got back on track with a 24-13 win at home against Washington State and then went on the road and rolled USC 42-26. Their first every win inside the Coliseum in LA. 

Backup quarterback Cameron Rising, had a breakout showing in that win over the Trojans, throwing for 306 yards and 3 scores, while also rushing for 27 yards and a score. He's a kid that plays with a ton of energy and passion. I think it's really lit a fire under this team. It wasn't just the offense, the defense really played one of their better games. 

I also think people overlook the fact that while Utah's playoff hopes were thrown out the window with those two early losses, their goals of winning the Pac-12 title are well within reach and a win here would really put them in the drivers seat to win the South. 

I'm also not as high as others on Arizona State. That's not to say I don't think the Sun Devils are a good team, I just feel like they are getting way too much respect on the road against a really good Utah team that has a ton of momentum working in their favor. 

Speaking of Utah and momentum, the Utes are 10-1 ATS last 11 off a conference win and are 8-1 ATS last 9 off a conference win by 2 or more. ASU is also 2-5 ATS under Herm Edwards as a road favorite and their only two wins came last year in a pandemic season where there were no fans at games. Give me the Utes +1! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER (Boston College +3) 

I'm going to take the field goal with Boston College at home against NC State. I know the Wolfpack are the No. 22 ranked team in the country and the Eagles aren't in the Top 25, but I do not think NC State should be favored on the road in this matchup. 

I think the Wolfpack are simply overrated because of their 27-21 2OT win at home against Clemson a few weeks ago. A great win, but let's not overlook how much the Tigers struggled. At the same time, BC went on the road and only lost 13-19 at Clemson and they had the ball inside Tigers territory twice in the final minutes, including a 1st & 10 on the Clemson 11 with 53 seconds to play (fumbled two plays later to end the game). 

The other thing with BC is I think they get knocked a little because they are down starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The thing is, senior backup Dennis Grosel has been more than serviceable in his absence. In his last start, against Clemson, he threw for 311 yards with BC offering no threat of a run game (46 yards on 34 attempts). 

Another thing with NC State that you need to take note of is they have played 4 of their first 5 at home. The only true road game they have played was at Mississippi State back in early September and they lost that game 10-24 as a 2-point road favorite. Wolfpack are just 18-36 ATS last 54 as a road favorite and are 2-12 ATS last 14 as a road favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the Eagles +3! 

40* (CFB) - Alabama/Miss St SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Mississippi State +17.5)

Most aren't going to think twice about laying the points with Alabama. Anytime the Crimson Tide lose, the first thing that comes to mind is there's no way they are going to lose two in a row. Chances are they won't, but the books know this kind of thought process and will inflate the line to create some massive value with the other side. 

There's not a lot of negatives you can say about the Alabama offense, but this is far from the Crimson Tide defense that we expected to see this year. At least to this point. Alabama is giving up 22 ppg. Nothing to be ashamed of for most teams, but they haven't allowed more than 20 ppg in a season since Nick Saban's first year on the job back in 2007. 

That defense has arguably been at it's worst in Alabama's two road games, where they gave up 29 points and over 400 total yards to Florida and the 41 points last week to a Texas A&M team that looked lost offensively this year. 

I feel pretty good about Mississippi State being able to move the ball. The Bulldogs are only scoring 27.8 ppg, but are putting up 429 ypg, which isn't too far off from the 472 ypg that Alabama averages. 

I also think the Bulldogs are sound enough defensively to at least make Alabama work for what they get offensively. Not only are they talented, but the energy in Davis Wade Stadium for a night game is going to only help the defense. 

The other thing to keep in mind, is that while Alabama may seem invincible to letdowns, this is far from an easy spot for them. They just put everything they had into their last two games against Ole Miss and and Texas A&M. It's not going to be as easy as most think for them to play their best in this spot. Give me Mississippi State +17.5! 

40* (CFB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texas -4.5) 

Most will hesitate to lay the points with Texas coming off that big collapse against Oklahoma last week. No question that loss isn't going to sit well, but I don't think an undefeated Oklahoma State team is the kind of opponent that will result in a letdown. This is a massive game for both teams in terms of making that Big 12 title game. 

The other big thing for me, is I'm not buying the stock in this Oklahoma State team. This is by far the best team they will have faced this year as their five wins have come against Missouri St, Tulsa, Boise State, Kansas State and Baylor. 

None of those teams are even close to being on the same level offensively as this Longhorns team. So while the defensive numbers look great for the Cowboys, I don't think they are going to be able to slow down this Texas offense, especially on the road. Keep in mind last year, the Longhorns hung 41 on the road in a 7-point win at Oklahoma State. 

As for the Cowboys offense, there's nothing that really impresses me with what they do. Despite the easy schedule they have played, they only come in averaging 25.4 ppg and 305.2 ypg. So while Texas' defense has struggled at times, this is an offense they should perform well against. Give me the Longhorns -4.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Texas A&M -8.5) 

I think the overwhelming perception with Texas A&M coming off that huge upset against Alabama is they are primed for a letdown. I get the thought process, but I'm not sure it's as big a concern given the spread and the opponent. 

It would be one thing if the books were asking the Aggies to cover more than two TDs, which I think they should be, but they aren't all we need is for Texas A&M to win by a TD and FG. 

I also would be a lot more worried if the Aggies were playing a SEC team with some upside like Ole Miss, Arkansas or Kentucky, but instead they are playing a Missouri team that I believe is only better than Vanderbilt in the SEC. 

I also think it's a perfect matchup for this Texas A&M offense that finally showed some life in their shocking win over Alabama. It was like a switch flipped for sophomore quarterback Zach Calzada in that game against the Crimson Tide. He went 21 of 31 for 285 yards and 3 scores. he had just 5 TD passes the previous 4 games, which saw him throw it 128 times. 

I think it can be hard to jump on a performance like that when you have seen so much bad leading up, but it's something I'll take a shot on against this awful Missouri defense. 

Not sure how much you have seen of this Tigers team, but they can't stop anything. Missouri is giving up 37.5 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. They are giving up 288 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run and allowing 8.2 passing yards per attempt. That's with the Tigers 3 toughest games being against Kentucky, Tennessee and BC. 

I know the Missouri offense can score, but this is a very talented Texas A&M defense that hadn't allowed more than 26 points in a game before allowing 38 to Alabama. Mizzu aint even close to the Tide on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Aggies are going to win here along the lines of 37-20. Give me Texas A&M -8.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR (Rutgers -2) 

I was dead wrong grabbing the points with Rutgers last week at home against Michigan State. As painful as that was to watch, it's not going to keep me from backing the Scarlet Knights at basically a pick'em on the road against Northwestern. 

I just don't think the books have adjusted enough for how down the Wildcats are this year. Northwestern is just 2-3 thru their first 5 games. There only wins are against FCS foe Indiana State and an awful Ohio team. They got blown out at home by Michigan State, were lucky to only by 7 on the road vs Duke and got absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska 56-7 last time out. 

As for Rutgers, this feels like a good buy low spot on them The excitement around this Scarlet Knights team has faded after 3 straight losses and back-to-back games where they didn't sniff a cover. This is a team that started 3-0 and covered their first 4, so there's been a lot of value betting them overall. 

You also have to factor in just how brutal a stretch their last 3 games were. They went on the road to face Michigan, before returning home to host Ohio State and Michigan State. It looked to me like they were just out of gas in that game against the Spartans and it probably had a lot to do with their defense giving up 4 60+ yard TDs in that game. 

I think they bounce back in a big way here against a Northwestern team that has struggled to score and aren't any good defensively. Wildcats are giving up only 27.2 ppg, but that's skewed big time by the 6 points they allowed in their games against Indiana State and Ohio. They gave up 326 on the ground to the Spartans, 208 to Duke (had 350 passing) and 427 to Nebraska.

Rutgers has covered all 3 games where they have rushed for 150 or more yards. Scarlet Knights have also been a road covering machine here of late. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons. Give me Rutgers -2! 

50* (CFB) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (North Texas +11) 

I really like the value we are getting with the Mean Green as a double-digit home dog against Marshall. Even though Marshall is just 1-3 in their last 4 games, they are going to get the money in this matchup. A lot of that being the fact that North Texas comes in just 1-4 with their only win coming in their opener against Northwestern St. 

What they overlook is the brutal schedule that the Mean Green have been up against to this point. Their other 4 games have come against SMU, UAB, La Tech and Missouri. The only one of those at home was against UAB. 

The other big thing that I believe has North Texas undervalued is they just recently made the full move to junior quarterback Austin Aune after splitting reps between Aune and fellow junior Jace Ruder. Don't get me wrong, neither is all that great, but Aune at least takes care of the ball. He has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio, where Ruder had a 3/5 ratio. 

Aune also seemed to play better as the main guy in that game, as he threw for 305 yards and 4 scores. Also rushed for 59 yards on 15 attempts. 

Another with Marshall and why they get some love, they got pretty good offensive numbers. Thundering Herd are scoring 34.8 ppg and averaging 515 ypg. As good as they might be, starting quarterback Grant Wells doesn't take care of the ball. He's got a 8/9 TD/INT ratio and if you only look at games vs FBS teams that ratio is 5/8. In his 3 road starts this season he has just 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions. Give me North Texas +11! 

50* (NFL) - Bills/Chiefs SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -2.5) 

I can't believe we are getting the Chiefs at less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I know there's a lot of people concerned with what they have seen out of KC so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As bad as the defense has been and it's been downright awful, the Chiefs are a couple plays away from being 4-0 and it's not like they have played a cupcake schedule. 

That defense could be getting back one of their top pass rushers in Frank Clark and all signs point to linebacker Willie Gay making his first start after starting the season on IR with a toe injury. Gay is a guy that I think can really have an impact. Clark can too, but you never know what you are going to get from him. Gay has great sideline to sideline speed and should help a lot against the run. He's also the guy that was suppose to have the green dot on his helmet. No question there's been a lack of communication on that side without him. 

I also think the defense has been so bad, it has people overlooking just how good the offense has been. KC has had the fewest amount of drives of any team in the league and are T-2nd in scoring at 33.5 ppg. It's only going to get better. They got 3 talented rookie offensive linemen and 5 all new starters on the o-line. That unit is going to just get better and better as they play more together. The Chiefs also added Josh Gordon. Not much has been made of this. Probably because no one thinks Gordon will last long, but he came in to the team in INCREDIBLE shape and has already formed a chemistry with Mahomes. 

One last thing on the Bills. This Chiefs defense is built to play from ahead and are much better suited to defend the pass than they are the run. I'm not saying they are a great pass defense, but they can get some stops if teams try to attack them thru the air. All Buffalo wants to do is throw the football. I think it's why it's been a really tough matchup for them. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

40* (NFL) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -1)

Not only is Denver a team that I think is overrated, I also feel like we are in a great buy low spot with the Steelers. 

Pittsburgh might not be a playoff team, but they aren't as bad as what the media is making them out to be. There's clearly concern with Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but we know they got a defense that carry them if they just get a few kinks worked out. 

I think Pittsburgh defense is going to dominate this game right from the start. It doesn't really matter to me if it's Bridgewater or Drew Lock. Denver is down big at wide receiver with KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy both on IR. Those were their two speed threats that could really stretch the defense.

They also are hurting on the o-line. Both starting guards are questionable to play. If that unit thought it was tough slowing down that Ravens pass rush, they are in big trouble here against T.J. Watt and the Steelers front. 

The other big thing you have to keep in mind with this Steelers defense is they have faced 4 of the better QBs in the league in Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers. 

The injuries are also starting to mount up on defense. The most recent being stud rookie corner Pat Surtain II, who left their last game with a chest injury. Denver's already without one of their top corners in Ronald Darby, as well as pass rusher Bradley Chubb and linebacker Josey Jewel. It's also worth noting that backup linebackers Andre Mintz and Baron Browning are both questionable. They already got 4 guys at linebacker on IR. They are really on thin ice at this position. 

I'm not expecting a ton out of Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but they should benefit in this game from great field position. I think they do more than enough to win this game. Give me Pittsburgh -1! 

50* (NFL) - Eagles/Panthers NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3.5) 

I love the Panthers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Eagles. I've been on this Carolina team quite a bit early in the year and they have got off to a great start at 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. They did fail to cover last week on the road in a 28-36 loss to Dallas, but that's nothing to change how you view this Panthers team. I really think Carolina is a playoff team, especially with what they have done to sure up that secondary. 

The Eagles aren't close to being a playoff team. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with their only win and cover coming in a Week 1 win over a bad Falcons team. Jalen Hurts has been impressive at times, but they get no production out of their backs and their weapons at receiver aren't great. The defense also has holes all over it. 

Panthers have an elite defense and a much-improved offense under former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Would love it if McCaffrey played, but they don't need him to move the ball against this Eagles team. Give me Carolina -3.5! 

40* (CFB) - Prime Time ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech +1) 

There's a lot here that makes me really like the Hokies as a slim 1-point home dog against the Fighting Irish. You got a Notre Dame team that's in a massive letdown spot after playing two massive games the last two weeks against Wisconsin and Cincinnati. They had that magical 4th quarter and were able to beat the Badgers 41-13 in a very misleading final and then lost 13-24 at home to Cincinnati. 

That game against the Bearcats was huge, as it now creates a massive roadblock for Notre Dame to the playoffs. If Cincinnati now goes undefeated and they probably should, there's no way they are taking the Irish over the Bearcats and I see no scenario where both could be an option. 

It's just not easy coming off two games as hyped up as Notre Dame's last two and play well when you just lost the last of those two. Not only that, they are playing a Virginia Tech team that has had two full weeks to get ready for this game coming off a bye. Throw in this being a night game in Blacksburg and the entire deck is really stacked against the Irish in this one. Give me the Hokies +1! 

50* (CFB) - TCU/TX Tech BIG 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK (Texas Tech +2) 

I'm shocked we are getting the Red Raiders as a home dog in this game. I just think the thing with Texas Tech, is people can't get how bad this team looked a couple weeks ago at Texas out of their head. The Red Raiders were annihilated 70-35 in a game where nothing went their way. 

You can't let that one game skew how you see a team. I was really impressed with how Tech responded from that ugly loss to the Longhorns by going on the road and beating a good West Virginia team 23-20. 

You also have a night game in Lubbock, which I think adds even more to the home field edge for Texas Tech in this game. 

As for TCU, I don't love them in this spot. The Horned Frogs just laid it all on the line at home against Texas last week and came up painfully short in a 27-32 loss. 

I also want to point out I think some of the value with Texas Tech comes from an overreaction to the fact that they are down their starting quarterback Tyler Shough. It's not all that bad, as the Red Raiders have a pretty good backup in senior Henry Colombi. He had 324 yards and 3 TDs in relief of Shough in the loss to Texas and 266 last week against WVU. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the Red Raiders +2! 

50* (CFB) Vegas Line Mistake PLAY OF THE YEAR (East Carolina +10.5) 

I think we are getting an absolute gift here with East Carolina as a 10.5-point dog against UCF. The Knights have no business being a double-digit favorite in this spot. 

It's really been a disappointing start to the season for UCF. The Knights came into this season thinking they were good enough to dethrone Cincinnati in the AAC and play in a New Year's Six Bowl. 

That's no longer the case. Not only because they have started 2-2, but their star quarterback, Dillon Gabriel is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Gabriel was injured on the final play in a 35-42 loss at Louisville. First game without him the Knights go on the road and lose 30-34 to Navy as a 15-point favorite. Keep in mind that's a Navy team that had lost 49-7 to Marshall and 23-3 to Air Force. 

Backup Mikey Keene wasn't terrible, completing 16 of 26 for 178 yards and 2 scores against the Midshipmen, but there's a clear drop off at the most important position on the field. 

I think it really puts this Knights team behind the 8-ball, because their defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone with a pulse. In their 3 games against FBS teams, they have allowed 31 to Boise, 42 to Louisville and 34 to Navy. 

This ECU offense is no joke. The Pirates are averaging 32.2 ppg, 442 ypg and 6.2 yards/play, which becomes even more impressive when you consider the opponents they have played are only giving up on average 26.7 ppg, 387 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. This is a game the Pirates not only can cover, but I given them a legit shot here to win outright. Give me ECU +10.5! 

40* (CFB) - Situational Letdown SHARP PLAY (Illinois +10) 

I could be dead wrong here, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Fighting Illini as a double-digit home dog against Wisconsin. This is 100% a fade of the Badgers given what's taken place to this point. 

Wisconsin came into this season as the team most thought would win the Big Ten West and had a shot at winning the conference and making the 4-team playoff. That's not how it's played out over the first 4 weeks. The Badgers are 1-3 with two home losses, both in conference play. 

Their offense has been an absolute nightmare. Graham Mertz has been as big a disappointment as I can remember for a Big Ten QB. He might not be able to go and if they had a guy they thought could help them, he would have got a shot by now, which is why I got low expectations for junior Chase Wolf if he has to go. 

That's just one injury Wisconsin is dealing with. The Badgers got a laundry list of guys who are questionable to play. 

Hard to blowout teams on the road when you can't score and this Illinois defense hasn't been all that bad. Their biggest weakness is also stopping the pass, which is by far the weakness of that Wisconsin offense. 

This is also the first true road game of the season for Wisconsin. Their only other game away from home was that neutral site showdown with Notre Dame at Soldier Field. Give me Illinois +10! 

40* (CFB) Public Money VEGAS ATS SHOCKER (FSU +17.5) 

I'll take my chances with Florida State covering the 17.5-point spread against North Carolina on Saturday. I just think this is way too many points for the Seminoles to be catching in this spot. FSU finally got the monkey off their back last week and got their first win of the season. They beat Syracuse 33-30 on a last second field goal after they had blown a double-digit 4th quarter lead. 

This will be the most confidence that the Seminoles have had going into a week of practice since their Week 1 game against Notre Dame. 

One of the big decisions leading up to that game against the Orange was at quarterback. FSU decided to bench mistake prone McKenzie Milton with the dual threat Jordan Travis. While Travis only threw for 131 yards, he rushed for a team-high 113 yards, as the Seminoles put up 247 on the ground. 

I like the matchup for FSU with Travis under center. One of the big things that killed UNC in their shocking 22-45 loss at Georgia Tech was they couldn't keep Yellow Jackets' QB Jeff Sims in check. Sims had 10 carries for 128 yards and 3 scores. 

If FSU can get Travis and the run game going, it's going to help limit the possessions for UNC's Sam Howell, which in turns makes the amount of points we are getting more and more valuable. 

Last year a really bad Seminoles team upset the Tar Heels 31-28 as a 13.5-point home dog. It's not out of the question they do it again. Give me FSU +17.5! 

50* (CFB) - Virginia/Louisville ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK (Louisville -2.5) 

Some might be hesitant to lay the short number with Louisville coming off that crushing 34-37 OT loss at Wake Forest, but I love the Cardinals at this price. I've watched quite a bit of Virginia the last couple of weeks. I laid the short number at home against WF and paid the price, but didn't hesitate to go right back with them as a 6-point dog at Miami last week. 

The big thing to note with playing them against Miami, is that was more a fade of the Hurricanes, who were going to be without starting QB King than it was a play on the Cavaliers. 

I like Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong, but sometimes a great signal caller isn't enough. I think that's the case here. I think the Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC and it will be an absolute nightmare for them trying to contain one of the most underrated players in the country in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. 

The guy has completed 64% of his attempts for 1,307 yards and has a 7-2 TD/INT ratio. He's also rushed for 309 yards and 10 scores. 

When you have a quarterback who is putting up those kind of numbers and that team isn't getting blown up by the media, it makes for a very underrated team. 

If we can just get some stops from that Louisville defense, this could get ugly. Cardinals definitely are prepared for what they will see with Armstrong, as they have already faced two QBs who are better than him in Ole Miss' Matt Corral and UCF's Dillon Gabriel. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers +5) 

I'm going to take the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as a 5-point home dog against the No. 11 ranked Michigan State Spartans. I think more times than not you can bank on an unranked team catching points against a ranked team, especially at home. I've watched both of these teams and I'm not so sure Rutgers shouldn't be favored here. I definitely don't think Sparty should be laying more than a field goal here. 

You talked about this quite a bit earlier in the season when you gave out Rutgers as a short road dog at Syracuse. This is a much improved Rutgers team from what we have seen in past years. They brought back 21 starters and were heading into year two under head coach Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the Scarlet Knights. 

I'm a big Schiano fan. He completely flipped this program his first go around in New Brunswick. In his last 7 seasons, Rutgers went 56-33 going to a bowl game in all but one of those years. Who knows where this program would be if he didn't leave to be the head coach of the TB Bucs back in 2012. 

I think some people might be hesitant to play Rutgers here after just going up against two of the Big Ten powers in Michigan and Ohio State. They kept it close in a loss at the Wolverines, but were completely dominated in a 52-13 loss last week to Ohio State. 

I would buy this being a letdown spot if they had pulled off the upset in one of those games, but this is a team that is still searching for their first conference win. I don't think they have any trouble here getting back up for an undefeated and ranked Spartans team. 

I did go against Michigan State a few weeks ago with Miami and that play went up in flames with the Spartans winning 38-17. I definitely wasn't giving the Spartans the respect they deserve, but I also think I was way too high on the Hurricanes. 

I just think we are far enough into the season, where people are buying into this Michigan State team. I'm just not one of them. The Spartans have played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far. 

I also think we really learned a lot about just how good this Spartans team is in their home night game against Nebraska a few weeks ago. Michigan State managed to win that game 23-20, but were lucky to do so. The Cornhuskers outgained them 442-254. Spartans didn't have a single first down in the 2nd half or OT. If they don't get a 62-yard punt return for a TD late in the 4th quarter, they lose that game. 

Nebraska was really able to shutdown Michigan State's star RB Kenneth Walker. He had just 61 yards on 19 attempts. I really think if you can limit him, this Spartans offense just doesn't have the playmakers on the outside to do a whole lot. A big reason why I think this Mich St team is in big trouble going forward. 

Rutgers did give up 208 rushing yards to Ohio State last week, but a lot of that is there's just so many freak athletes you have to account for with the Buckeyes. Even with that poor showing, if you want to call it that, they are still giving up just 3.8 yards carry against teams that average 5.2 yards/carry. 

I'm pretty confident here that Schiano and his staff will be able to put together a game plan to limit Walker and win this game rather comfortably Give me the Scarlet Knights +5! 

50* (CFB) - Temple/Cincinnati AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Temple +29.5) 

I absolutely love Temple catching 29.5 on the road against Temple Friday night. It's just a brutal spot for the Bearcats. Cincinnati just played it's two biggest games on their schedule the last two times out at Indiana and at Notre Dame (did have a bye between games). The bigger of the two being last week's 24-13 win over the Irish. On top of that, one of their toughest games left on the schedule is next week's home game vs UCF.

It's just going to be near impossible for the Bearcats to bring the kind of energy and effort needed to win in a blowout against a team they know they are much better than. 

I think a flat Bearcats team will allow the Owls to keep this much closer than expected in the 1st half and by the time Cincinnati gets it in gear it won't be enough to cover the massive number. At the same time, if by chance the Bearcats come out swinging, the back door figures to be wide open. 

Another thing that I think adds even more value here, is this isn't a bad Temple team and they are coming into this game with a lot of confidence after last week's 34-31 win over Memphis as a double-digit home dog. 

I really think there defense is underrated. It doesn't look good giving up 30.2 ppg, but a lot of that has been them getting put in bad spots. The Owls are only giving up 313 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. I know the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, but it's worth noting that everyone thinks this Cincinnati defense is elite and they are giving up very similar numbers at 309 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. Give me the Owls +29.5! 

50* (NFL) - Rams/Seahawks TNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -1.5) 

I will take my chances here with the Rams laying less than a field goal on the road against the Seahawks. I played and lost with the Rams last week, as they got embarrassed on their home field by the Cardinals. Turns out the bounce back from that emotional win over the Bucs was a little tougher than anticipated. 

I think there can be some value with teams the game after a letdown spot. Not only are we not going to get as inflated a number to bet into, we should also get a max effort from that team. 

That's really the handicap for me here, because I don't think it's close in terms of talent when you look up and down the roster of these two teams. Seattle's got a great offense led by Russell Wilson, but their defense is as bad as it gets. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the Chiefs defense has been. Yet it's the Seahawks who are giving up a league worst 444.5 ypg. 

A pretty staggering number when you consider they have exactly went up against an elite offense. Their 4 games have been against the Colts, Titans, Vikings and 49ers. Just to compare, the Chiefs have at least been bad against good offenses, as they have faced the Ravens, Browns, Chargers and Eagles. 

I think it's pretty safe to say the Rams have an elite offense with Matthew Stafford and it's without question the best offense and quarterback Seattle will have seen so far this year. 

I just don't see Wilson and that Seahawks offense being able to go score for score with Stafford and the Rams in this one. Give me the Rams -1.5! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night ATS MONEY-MAKER (Tulane +6) 

I'll go opposite of the public and grab the 6-points at home with Tulane on Thursday. Public has been coming in heavy on Houston in this one and the line hasn't really moved off of 6. That tells me the books are fine with needing the Green Wave in this one. 

Houston comes into this game 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season. They have won 4 in a row since losing their opener to Texas Tech, covering in 3 of the last 4. 

What gets overlooked is the schedule the Cougars have played to this point. One of my favorite strength of schedule rankings has it 119th out of 130. That's a bad Navy team they barely scraped by against at home 28-20 and don't be fooled by last weeks' 45-10 thrashing of Tulsa. That's not a very good Golden Hurricanes team. 

*Note that game against Tulsa was a weekday game last week and a lot of people were on Houston as a short road dog. Hard to keep covering as a big public team, because the books just keep inflating the number. 

Tulane is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, having failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Thing with the Green Wave is their schedule has been one of the toughest (19th toughest). They have played true road games at Oklahoma and Ole Miss, as well as a home game against a good UAB team and a road game against a up and coming East Carolina squad. 

I just think it has Tulane way undervalued here and I love them in this spot. The Green Wave have their backs full against the wall. They desperately need a win here to have any shot at making a bowl. 

I also think you got to bump up the home field edge in these weekday games. While it only seats 30,000, you can bet Yulman Stadium will be up for this prime time action. 

I'll take the points as insurance, but I got a good feeling here that the Green Wave win this game outright. Play Tulane +6! 

40* (NFL) Situational No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens +1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Ravens as a road dog against the Broncos. Baltimore was laying more than a field goal in this game before the season started and has completely flipped to the other side, where Denver is a slim 1-point favorite. 

I'll be the first two admit last week's bet against the Broncos with the Jets was terrible. However, I don't think my mistake was undervaluing Denver. I just put too much faith into that Jets offense.

Think about this, the Broncos 3 games this season have seen their defense have to defend Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Now they have to face one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Lamar Jackson. 

Now I know the Ravens weren't exactly world beaters last week in their crazy 19-17 win over the Lions, where they won the game on a record-setting field goal at the buzzer. However, that was a spot where you would expect Baltimore to not have their best coming off an emotional and thrilling 36-35 win over the Chiefs on SNF the week before. 

The Broncos being undefeated will more than be enough to get the attention of Baltimore in this game. 

Not only do I think Denver is a bit overvalued because of their schedule, but the injuries are starting to pile up. Two of their top options at receiver on IR with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. They also could be down both starting offensive guards with Glasgow doubtful and Risner questionable. Defensively they have 3 more key guys on IR in linebackers Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell and corner Ronald Darby. Give me the Ravens +1! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Steelers +6.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Pittsburgh catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Packers. Everyone has written off the Steelers after back-to-back ugly home losses to the Raiders and Bengals. It's almost like their Week 1 23-16 win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point dog doesn't exist. 

There's not many teams I feel better about backing with their backs against the wall as a dog than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-22 ATS when listed as an underdog since Tomlin took over as head coach and are 28-17 ATS when they are a road dog. Steelers are also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a loss by 10 or more to a division rival. 

Aside from how good Pittsburgh has been in this spot historically, I also think this is a good spot here to bet against Green Bay off their thrilling win at San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. 

I'm also not completely sold on this Packers offense. They have not ran the ball well at all, 80 ypg and just 3.4 yards/carry and have not had more than 255 yards passing in any game. I also think you got to keep in mind they just played two awful secondaries in Detroit and San Francisco.

This Steelers defense is no joke and are starting to get back to full strength on that side of the ball. I think their ability to defend the pass and put pressure on the QB is going to be huge in this game. I also think they will be able to slow down the Rodgers to Adams connection. Much like we saw in Week 1, when the Saints held Adams to just 5 catches for 56 yards. 

Adding to this, Pittsburgh is 68-33 (67.3%) ATS last 101 times they have faced a team that averages more than 7 passing yards/attempt. Give me the Steelers +6.5! 

40* (NFL) - Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Rams -4)

I might be walking right into a trap here with the Rams, but there's just no scenario right now that I'm not laying a mere 4-points with LA at home. I definitely think the Cardinals coming into at 3-0 is giving us value. At the same time, I think the public perception is that the Rams are going to come out flat after their huge win over the Bucs. 

I just think all the talk about how the Rams won't play well after their big win against Brady and Tampa Bay, is going to have them locked in. I think it also helps that LA is at home and this is a division game. It's no secret how good the NFC West is this year. I just don't see the Rams not showing up with their best effort on Sunday. 

The biggest thing here for me is I don't see how this Arizona defense is going to be able to slow down Matthew Stafford and this Rams offense. LA is averaging 31.7 ppg, 388 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. Keep in mind McVay and the Rams owned the Cardinals when Goff was their quarterback. 

Kyler Murray on the other hand has had an awful time when matched up with this Rams defense. Murray has started 4 games against LA since coming into the league and the Cardinals are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in those game. The Rams have won those contests by an average scored of 30.2 to 16.5. Murray is averaging just 187 passing yards/game with a mere 5-4 TD-INT ratio. Give me the Rams -4! 

40* (NFL) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Jets +7) 

I know it's asking a lot to put your hard earned money on a team like the Jets, but I just feel like there's just too much value on New York to pass up. This comes from the guy who bet the Jets a +10.5 last week at Denver in a game they lost 26-0 with just 162 total yards of offense. It's just how the NFL works. 

What it's done is really create a buy low spot on the Jets at home against a mediocre at best Titans team. 

Let's start off with Tennessee. They come in 2-1, but could and should be 1-2. They got absolutely embarrassed in their opener at home by the Cardinals 13-38. They then somehow beat the Seahawks on the road 33-30 after railing 16-30 in the 4th quarter. I also don't think there's anything to get excited about with last week's 25-16 win over a Colts team that hasn't won a game. 

The other big thing working against the Titans is injuries. We know for sure they won't have top wide out A.J. Brown and there's a chance they won't have Julio Jones. Running back Derrick Henry is the only other Tennessee player with more than 100 yards receiving. 

Say what you want about the talent the Jets have on defense, they are playing really hard on that side of the ball and if there's a strength for New York on that side of the ball it's stopping the run. I really think they are going to be able to load the box here and keep Henry in check, which in turn makes you wonder how this Titans team is going to score. 

Tennessee also has all kinds of guys out on defense and they have not looked good on that side of the ball. I know Zach Wilson has struggled and is playing behind a horrible o-line, but this is a defense he can have some success against. 

It might not be pretty, but I really like the Jets to find a way to keep this within a touchdown at home on Sunday. Give me New York +7!  

40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers +4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4.5-point dog at Dallas on Sunday. It's no secret that the Cowboys are a huge public team. Every amatuer player out there is going to be running to the ticket window to lay the short number with Dallas in this one, especially after just watching them blowout the Eagles at home on Monday Night Football in Week 3. 

I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Cowboys against a vastly improved Panthers team that comes in at 3-0. One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is the huge rest edge that Carolina has. The Panthers are playing an extra 3 days of rest compared to normal after playing on TNF last week. Dallas on the other hand is playing on 1 less day of rest after playing on MNF. 

On top of the rest, you also have to factor in the massive edge in coaching Carolina has with Rhule compared to McCarthy. 

I think the big thing here for a lot of people is they just don't see a world in which the Panthers can go score for score with Dallas. I don't think the Panthers have to score a ton to cover or even win this game. 

The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league that has excelled against both the run and the pass. They are giving up just 2.6 yards/carry, a mere 146 passing yards/game and lead the league with 14 sacks. 

It also wouldn't shock me if Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense didn't have a big game in this one. I get the Cowboys are improved defensively, but a lot of that has been their offense playing ball control, something that won't be as easy in this game. Darnold looks like a completely different QB than what we saw with the Jets. I could definitely see him having a big game. Give me the Panthers +4.5!