10* Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +1.5: All I've heard leading up to this game is that Philadelphia has the better team and if the Chiefs didn't have Mahomes there's no way KC could beat this team. Mahomes is great, but there's a lot more talent on this Chiefs team than they are getting credit for and I think those other 52 guys are going to come out with a massive chip on their shoulder in this game. 

I'm not saying the Eagles aren't a very good football team, but you can't not factor in the schedule. Philly played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Chiefs played one of the hardest. Yet these two teams finished the regular-season with the same 14-3 record. KC's three losses came by 4 points or fewer. I don't know that Philly goes 14-3 if you give them the Chiefs' schedule. I'm also not convinced they beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship if Purdy doesn't get hurt on the first series. 

Yes, the offensive and defensive lines for the Eagles are very good, but it's not like these two units are going up against a cupcake on the other side. The Chiefs also have one of the best offensive lines in the league and there d-line has played great in the playoffs. 

If KC's line can put up some resistance and Mahomes isn't running for his life, I think the Chiefs are going to have no problem moving the football. I don't know that it's going to be as easy for the Eagles offense, especially if KC gets any sort of lead and forces the Eagles to throw it more than they would like. Either way, I feel Mahomes and the Chiefs are being extremely disrespected in this game and they are the better team with the best quarterback on the planet. Give me Kansas City +1.5! 

10* NFL AFC Championship VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Chiefs as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. The betting public is all over Cincinnati in this one. Bengals have had the Chiefs number of late and there's some uncertainty to just how healthy Mahomes is going to be after suffering a high ankle sprain in KC's win last week against the Jaguars. 

Chiefs blew big leads in both losses to the Bengals last year and were missing several key guys on both sides of the ball in the loss to Cincinnati during the regular season this year. All 3 wins were by a mere 3 points. There's not a team KC would rather have to beat to get back to the Super Bowl. Add in all the Bengals trash talk with the "Burrowhead" comments and what not, has really made this game personal. 

I'm not concerned with Mahomes being 100% or not with that ankle. He certainly hasn't looked that hobbled in practice and it's not like he can't be great by throwing out of the pocket. 

The big thing that I think is getting overlooked in this game is the Bengals' offensive line. They have lost 3 starters down the stretch from a unit that lacks depth. That weakness wasn't a big factor against the Bills for a couple of reasons. One, Buffalo's defensive front hasn't been the same since losing Von Miller. Second, the o-line was helped out tremendously by all the snow last week. It's a lot harder for the defensive to get off the ball when it's a sloppy field like that. This is a much better front for the Chiefs and a game where I think Chris Jones could dominate. 

The fact that KC was a TD favorite in last year's AFC Championship Game speaks to the value we are getting in this one. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Chiefs ended up winning this game going away. Give me Kansas City -1.5! 

10* NFL Wild Card Sunday VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens +8.5

I'll take my chances with Baltimore as a 8.5-point dog against the Bengals on Wild Card Sunday. Yes, Cincinnati just beat the Ravens 27-16 at home in Week 18 to lock up the AFC North title. It never really felt like it was that close, as the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led 24-7 at the half. 

Most are going to just assume Cincinnati is going to roll again at home against these Ravens. I'm not as convinced. Not enough is being made about Baltimore's defense and the job it did against this Bengals offense. Cincinnati was only able to put up 257 total yards. Baltimore had 386 total yards averaging 5.1 yards/play to the Bengals 4.0. 

Ravens rested two of their biggest offensive weapons in running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews. They also were down to 3rd string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown. While Brown is expected to see some action in this one, 2nd string quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to play. 

It feels like no one is giving this Ravens team any chance of winning this game. I just think that's a big mistake with how well this Baltimore defense is playing. If they can get the run game going with Dobbins, they got a legit shot to pull off the upset. Either way, I think they keep this to a 1-score game. Give me the Ravens +8.5! 

10* NFL  Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER: Chargers -2 

I'll take my chances with the Chargers as a 2-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Saturday's AFC Wild Card matchup. You got to tip your hat to Jacksonville for turning their season around, but the only reason this team is in the playoffs is because they won a bad division (AFC South). They also benefited from an extremely easy schedule down the stretch. In their 5 game winning streak to end the year, they played the Titans twice, Cowboys at home, Jets and the Texans. The win over Dallas was impressive, but they also had to come from way behind to win that game. Justin Herbert should be able to exploit a bad Jaguars secondary. At the same time, I don't see the Jacksonville offense doing a whole lot. Give me the Chargers -2! 

10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -2

I love the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets in Week 18. I get both of these teams have not played great down the stretch. Both come into this game having lost 5 straight. The big difference is, New York's 6-23 loss at Seattle last week ended any hopes they had of making the playoffs. Miami is still alive and very much so. All they need is a win and for Buffalo to defeat the Patriot at home and they are in. 

I think the only reason this line isn't pushing a touchdown, is the fact that the Dolphins are down to 3rd string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Can this team win in the playoffs with Thompson as their quarterback? Probably not, but he's facing an unmotivated Jets team that hasn't put up more than 17 points in each of their last 4 games, failing to reach double-digits in each of their last 2 games. He doesn't have to be great and let's not forget who he has to throw the ball to. Having a full week to prepare is also going to help him. I just think the line has been adjusted too much for him being the starter and not enough for the spot. Give me the Dolphins -2! 

10* NFL Titans/Jags AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Titans +6.5

I love the Titans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jaguars in Saturday's winner take all for the AFC South title. I know it's technically Week 18, but this 100% going to have the feel of a playoff game. It's asking a lot for the Jags to win by a full touchdown in this spot. This is a young team that hasn't been in this kind of pressure, where Tennessee has a bunch of dudes that have played very meaningful games in January the past few seasons. 

I think that people also get lost in the fact that the Titans come in having lost 6 straight and Jacksonville has won their last 4. We kind of knew given Tennessee's injuries that it was going to come down to this game. We saw the Titans rest all their guys last week against Dallas. Jags decided to play their starters in a meaningless game vs the Texans. Tennessee should be the fresher team and more importantly they are as healthy as they have been in a while, especially on defense. 

Dobbs isn't great and probably a downgrade from Tannehill, but he's also a massive upgrade over what they were working with in rookie Malik Willis. Not saying Titans will win, but they should at the very least keep this within the number. Give me Tennessee +6.5! 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts +4

I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 4-point home dog against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Not many are going to want anything to do with betting Indy in this one. Not after last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, where Indy somehow managed to turn a 33-0 halftime lead into a 36-39 OT loss. It was the largest blown lead in NFL history and you can bet this Colts team is sick and tired of hearing about it. What better way to put it to rest, than playing at home on Monday Night Football against an opponent fighting for their playoff lives. 

I also like the decision head coach Jeff Saturday has made to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. A move I think they should have done a long time ago. Ryan just has been too inconsistent and has done a horrible job protecting the football. Foles gives that offense new life and it simply can't be any worse. 

As for the Chargers, they haven't exactly been clicking on the offensive side of the ball. LA scored just 20 points on the road in a loss to the Raiders, put up 23 at home against a very average Dolphins defense and last week snuck by a bad Titans defense with a 17-14 win. This is also a Chargers defense that has allowed 368.6 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. I just can't get to them being this big a road favorite. Give me the Colts +4! 

10* NFL Christmas Day ATS MASSACRE: Denver Broncos -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. The fact that Denver, who is just 4-10, is favored on the road against the defending champs, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this season has went for Los Angeles. Injuries have completely derailed any hopes the Rams had of running it back. Just on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the best WR in the game in Cooper Kupp and their big FA signing at WR in Allen Robinson. They have also had a ridiculous 14 different starters on the offensive line. No injuries at running back, but they might as well, but it's not like they can run the ball. 

Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback after he was claimed off waivers a couple weeks ago. Mayfield did lead a crazy comeback win against the Raiders in his first start, but the offense managed just 3 points for 56+ mins of that game. They then proceeded to score just 12 points and rack up a mer 156 total yards in a 12-point loss at Green Bay last week. 

Simply put, this offense is down bad, even more so than this Broncos team. You combine that with the talent Denver has on the defensive side of the football and I just think it's without question the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. The Broncos offense has looked a little more competentent of late as well, scoring 24 last week in a win at home over Arizona and 28 the week before against the Chiefs. I'm confident they can score enough to win this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Broncos -2.5! 

10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Giants +4

I got no problem taking the 4-points with the Giants as they go on the road to face the Vikings on Saturday. I just don't think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal in this match. The Vikings are without a doubt the luckiest team in the NFL this season. They added yet another close win to their resume with last Saturday's crazy 39-36 OT win over the Colts, where they rallied from a 33-0 halftime deficit. You just can't keep winning games like this. 

I also think this is a horrible matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota has not been able to get their run game going of late. Vikings have eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in their last 5 games and are averaging just 74.4 ypg during this stretch. I don't know if having to rely heavily on the pass game is a good strategy against a stingy Giants secondary. New York's only giving up 216.9 passing yards/game on the season and have allowed more than 300 yards passing just once all season. 

If the offense struggles to throw, they could find themselves in another big hole in this one, because there's no signs that this Vikings defense is going to get better. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 278.8 ypg. They are allowing an average of 6.2 yards/play and are giving up an average of 31.3 ppg over their last 6 contests. Give me the Giants +4! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New York Jets -1.5

I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Jags on Thursday Night Football. This is just too good a price to pass up on New York, especially at home in a game that will be played on just 3 days rest. Home team has a huge edge in this one. Jets should be extra motivated coming into this game having lost 3 straight. All 3 games they could have easily won. 

I thought Zach Wilson played well last week in place of Mike White. Better than expected. Maybe the benching helped him. Either way, this is another defense he should be able to move the ball against. Jacksonville is giving up 26.4 ppg, 394 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this season. 

I also think this is a big flat spot for Jacksonville off last week's huge 17-point come from behind win at home against the Cowboys. How much of that was Dallas looking ahead to this week's game against the Eagles? It certainly didn't look like the Cowboys were fully invested. This is also the 3rd road game in less than 4 weeks for Jacksonville, who has shockingly will not play a single stretch all season where they play two consecutive games at home. This team is on a plane to a new city or back home every week. This feels like the spot where it catches up to them. Give me the Jets -1.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3

I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins. 

I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team. 

They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. 

I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3! 

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season. 

I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win. 

Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out. 

I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4! 

10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3

I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco. 

The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense. 

San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver. 

As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football. 

I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3! 

10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5

I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year. 

Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags. 

This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play. 

I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury. 

That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33. 

You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. 

Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives. 

New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5! 

10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1

I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team. 

The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road. 

This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air. 

I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1

I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup. 

It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less. 

Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt. 

It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1! 

10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team. 

Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win. 

They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture. 

Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3! 

10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1

I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas. 

I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. 

It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1! 

10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10.

Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game. 

This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game. 

This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5! 

10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done. 

I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover. 

The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging. 

The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5

I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. 

The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. 

Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5

I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. 

The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. 

On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. 

I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4

I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. 

Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. 

The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. 

I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. 

I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! 

10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. 

I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. 

Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. 

I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. 

All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5! 

10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here. 

That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize. 

New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20. 

I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3! 

10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers. 

All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team.

As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball. 

I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker. 

On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore. 

They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5! 

10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3

I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith. 

If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot. 

I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd. 

As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot. 

I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team. 

I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3! 

10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -3

I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Dolphins as they go to New York to take on the Jets in a AFC East clash. I just feel like we are getting some exceptional value with Miami because of the fact that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't going to play. I don't see much of a dropoff from Tua to backup Teddy Bridgewater. In relief of Tua last week against the Bengals, Bridgewater completed 14 of 23 (61%) attempts for 193 yards (8.4 yards/attempt). 

I wasn't surprised at all that the Dolphins lost that game at Cincinnati, as that was about as tough a spot as they will be in all year. Miami had just 3 days to prepare for the Bengals and were coming off a huge upset win at home against Super Bowl favorite Buffalo. A game in which their defense was on the field for 90+ snaps. 

There's a lot of fraud teams out there in the NFL thru the first 4 weeks and the Jets are definitely one of those teams. New York is somehow 2-0, despite having trailed by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter of every game. 

Outside of the final minutes of the 4th quarter when it feels like the opposing defense is letting up, the Jets offense hasn't been able to much of anything. New York comes in averaging just 19.0 ppg. They have failed to rush for 100 yards in every game. 

Miami's defensive numbers don't look great, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. In their last 3 games they have played 3 of the best QBs in the league in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In their one game against an average to below average QB, they held the Patriots to just 7 points and 271 total yards in a 20-7 win. 

I also think it's worth noting that the Jets somehow managed to sweep the season series with Miami last year. The Dolphins are not going to overlook this game and a lack of focus is the only thing I think could keep Miami from winning this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Dolphins -3! 

10* NFL AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -7

I absolutely love the Jaguars as a mere 7-point home favorite against the Texans in Week 5 of the NFL. The Jaguars were really gaining a lot of steam going into last week's big showdown at Philly. In their previous 2 games they had beat the Colts 24-0 at home and rolled the Chargers 38-10 on the road. 

It started off great against Philly, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, but it was all Eagles from there. Philadelphia scored 29 unanswered points and went on to win the game 29-21. Not only that but the Jags managed just 219 total yards and turned it over 5 times. 

Sure it doesn't look good, but that's about as bad as Jacksonville could have played and yet they still only lost by 8 despite all the offensive struggles and turnovers. Let's also not ignore the fact that game was played in the rain, which I think really benefited the Eagles and their strong run game. 

I always like to back good teams who are coming off a bad game, especially when they are facing a bad team like they are here with the Texans. Had Jacksonville won that game, who knows if they would have taken this game seriously. They certainly will having lost the way they did. 

I know the Texans have been respectable thru their first 4 games, but their first 3 games were against the Colts, Broncos and Bears. While they did tie Indy 20-20, it's worth noting that the Colts offense that couldn't have looked much worse in their 3 other games put up 517 total yards on the Texans. They also trailed 7-27 at the Chargers last week before eventually cutting it 3 and losing by 10. I'm not so sure this isn't the worst team in the league. 

I don't see Houston's offense being able to get anything going against a pissed off Jacksonville defense and I don't see the Texans being to slow down the Jaguars offense. Give me the Jags -7! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Denver Broncos -3 

I think we are getting an exceptional price here with the Broncos laying only a field goal at home against the Colts. The public perception here is we have a couple of teams that are not as good as what we thought coming into this year. Almost everyone was picking the Colts to win the AFC South and there was plenty of buzz about Denver being that team that dethrones the Chiefs in the AFC West. 

After the first 4 weeks of the season, it's up in the air if these two teams will even make the playoffs. For a lot of people, they will have a tough time feeling good about betting either of these teams, which is why I think we are getting a good price here. 

I'm way more concerned about the Colts going forward than I am the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, who I think will only get better as Russell Wilson gets a better understanding of the offense and his new weapons, I'm not sure how Indy is going to turn this thing around. 

Especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts offensive line play has been brutal. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing at 87.8 ypg and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times.

Their receiving corps lacks a go-to guy and for the time being are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who was really the guy who made this team what it was last year. 

Keep in mind the run game is what made this team great last year. They finished 2021 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 149.9 ypg and were T-9th in sacks allowed at 32. Now Taylor is out with a ankle injury. 

I just have a hard time seeing that offensive going into the thin air of Denver on just 3-days of rest and performing well against a Broncos defense that is outstanding in the secondary and Top 10 in sacks. 

Not saying it will be easy for Wilson and that Denver offense against a pretty good Indianapolis defense, but I got a lot more faith in them being able to sustain drives and most importantly finish them off with TDs. Give me the Broncos -3! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: San Francisco 49ers PK

I'm going to back the 49ers as a pick'em at home against the Rams. The 49ers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start with ugly losses on the road to the Bears and Broncos. San Francisco has showed little to no signs of life on offense, which a lot of people are going to see as a big concern against the Rams. 

On the flip side the Rams, the defending champs, are 2-1, having won their last two after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Bills. They are also coming off an easy cover in a 20-13 win as a 3-point favorite at Arizona. 

Simply put, everyone is going to being picking LA to win and cover the spread. The books know this. You have to ask yourself, why aren't the Rams a bigger favorite here? It feels like to me the books are taking a stance with San Francisco. 

I see where they are coming from. As bad as the offense has been for the 49ers, the defense has looked incredible. The 49ers are giving up just 12.3 ppg, 227 ypg and 4.1 yards/play. You can't run on this front. SF is allowing just 2.8 yards/carry and holding teams 2.1 yards/rush under their season average. 

This to me is a problem for the Rams. LA is one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They are averaging just 72 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. The 49ers should be able to make the Rams one dimensional. 

I just don't think LA's offensive line is going to be able to hold up, if Stafford has to drop back every snap. This o-line isn't anything close to the unit they won the Super Bowl with.

Stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. Starting center Brian Allen was for the foreseeable future in Week 1. Starting right guard Coleman Shelton has had to move inside to center. Problem is his backups Logan Bruss and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. are both on IR. They will also be without starting left guard Brian Allen (concussion) in this game. 

One other thing, I think there's this perception that the Rams are this great defensive team. They got some great players, but I question the talent around them. I still think SF is a better offensive team with Jimmy G. As bad as he looked in his first start last week, it's not easy winning at Denver and that Broncos defense is sneaky good. Rams gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to Falcons. They held the Cardinals to just 12 points, but Arizona had a very respectable 365 total yards in that game. Give me the 49ers PK! 

10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team. 

I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are. 

You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game. 

I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3! 

10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3

I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been. 

I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2. 

As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them. 

Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3! 

10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5

I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game. 

There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game. 

If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel. 

You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen. 

I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5

I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think. 

Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game. 

The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243. 

As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation. 

Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402! 

This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24. 

Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season. 

Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense. 

A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run. 

As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself. 

Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys. 

I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4

I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play. 

Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has. 

What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead. 

Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3

I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line. 

Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa. 

On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games. 

I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3! 

10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year. 

Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter. 

He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed. 

They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact. 

The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks. 

I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5! 

50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4) 

I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game. 

Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score. 

On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4! 

50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary. 

They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7! 

50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6) 

I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins.

I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. 

The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6! 

50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5) 

I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here. 

I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5! 

50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3) 

I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end. 

I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs. 

The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play. 

Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards. 

The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game. 

I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3! 

50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5) 

I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play. 

I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh. 

Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home. 

I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5! 

50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4) 

I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl. 

Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best. 

I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes. 

I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3) 

I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those. 

You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3! 

50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3) 

This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7. 

Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. 

It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points! 

50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1) 

I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games. 

I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week. 

As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding. 

I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1! 

50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3) 

I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well. 

Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3! 

50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report. 

Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1! 

50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13) 

I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action. 

Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game. 

Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps. 

I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5! 

50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3) 

I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers. 

As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have  a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot. 

I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5) 

I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight. 

While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team. 

On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal. 

Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards. 

That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. 

I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5! 

50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1) 

I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up. 

I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game. 

I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1! 

50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) 

I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. 

I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. 

As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) 

I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders. 

I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. 

The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram. 

In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season. 

I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) 

I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. 

It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year. 

Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons. 

The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK) 

I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage. 

This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week. 

Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special. 

This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK! 

50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5) 

I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite. 

What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort. 

As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets. 

On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3)

Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback. 

It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over. 

Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. 

Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3! 

50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play.

That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home. 

On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense. 

Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5! 

50* (NFL) Bills/Titans MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Bills -6) 

I'll be the first to admit that I thought Buffalo wasn't as good as everyone was saying coming into the 2021 season. I was wrong. The Bills not only look like the best team in the AFC, but maybe the best team in the league.

I know the Cardinals hold that claim after their 6-0 start, but let's forget the Bills only loss of the season came in Week 1, where they fell 16-23 at home to the Steelers. A loss is a loss, but it didn't feel like Pittsburgh was the better team on that day.

Buffalo was up 10-0 at the half with the Steelers doing next to nothing on offense. They were still up 10-6 in the 4th quarter before they turned it over on downs, which led to a short field and a field goal. Next time they have the ball they get a punt blocked that was returned for a TD. 

Since that loss the Bills have demolished every team that has got in their way, outscoring opponents in their 4-game win streak 39.0 to 10.3! That includes last week's 38-20 beatdown of the Chiefs on the road. 

*The only thing that scares me is the Bills having a letdown after that win over KC. It clearly was a game that meant a lot to them after the Chiefs knocked beat them in last year's AFC Championship Game. 

There is reason to believe that Buffalo will show up. One, it's Monday Night Football with all the eyes on you. The other is revenge. Last year, the Bills had their 4-0 start to the season put to an end in an embarrassing 42-16 loss at Tennessee. A game many of you will remember had that epic stiff arm by Henry against Josh Norman. 

Henry is always scary to bet against, as he just take over a game, but I'm just not sold on this Titans team. They have a MASSIVE list of injuries and their 3 wins were against the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. They got destroyed Week 1 at home by the Cardinals 38-13 and have that shocking lost to the Jets back in Week 4. Give me the Bills -6! 

50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5)

I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team. 

I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep. 

You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable. 

Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5!

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league.

They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback. 

I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I 

I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home.

I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league. 

I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - Bills/Chiefs SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -2.5) 

I can't believe we are getting the Chiefs at less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I know there's a lot of people concerned with what they have seen out of KC so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As bad as the defense has been and it's been downright awful, the Chiefs are a couple plays away from being 4-0 and it's not like they have played a cupcake schedule. 

That defense could be getting back one of their top pass rushers in Frank Clark and all signs point to linebacker Willie Gay making his first start after starting the season on IR with a toe injury. Gay is a guy that I think can really have an impact. Clark can too, but you never know what you are going to get from him. Gay has great sideline to sideline speed and should help a lot against the run. He's also the guy that was suppose to have the green dot on his helmet. No question there's been a lack of communication on that side without him. 

I also think the defense has been so bad, it has people overlooking just how good the offense has been. KC has had the fewest amount of drives of any team in the league and are T-2nd in scoring at 33.5 ppg. It's only going to get better. They got 3 talented rookie offensive linemen and 5 all new starters on the o-line. That unit is going to just get better and better as they play more together. The Chiefs also added Josh Gordon. Not much has been made of this. Probably because no one thinks Gordon will last long, but he came in to the team in INCREDIBLE shape and has already formed a chemistry with Mahomes. 

One last thing on the Bills. This Chiefs defense is built to play from ahead and are much better suited to defend the pass than they are the run. I'm not saying they are a great pass defense, but they can get some stops if teams try to attack them thru the air. All Buffalo wants to do is throw the football. I think it's why it's been a really tough matchup for them. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - Eagles/Panthers NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3.5) 

I love the Panthers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Eagles. I've been on this Carolina team quite a bit early in the year and they have got off to a great start at 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. They did fail to cover last week on the road in a 28-36 loss to Dallas, but that's nothing to change how you view this Panthers team. I really think Carolina is a playoff team, especially with what they have done to sure up that secondary. 

The Eagles aren't close to being a playoff team. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with their only win and cover coming in a Week 1 win over a bad Falcons team. Jalen Hurts has been impressive at times, but they get no production out of their backs and their weapons at receiver aren't great. The defense also has holes all over it. 

Panthers have an elite defense and a much-improved offense under former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Would love it if McCaffrey played, but they don't need him to move the ball against this Eagles team. Give me Carolina -3.5! 

50* (NFL) - Rams/Seahawks TNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -1.5) 

I will take my chances here with the Rams laying less than a field goal on the road against the Seahawks. I played and lost with the Rams last week, as they got embarrassed on their home field by the Cardinals. Turns out the bounce back from that emotional win over the Bucs was a little tougher than anticipated. 

I think there can be some value with teams the game after a letdown spot. Not only are we not going to get as inflated a number to bet into, we should also get a max effort from that team. 

That's really the handicap for me here, because I don't think it's close in terms of talent when you look up and down the roster of these two teams. Seattle's got a great offense led by Russell Wilson, but their defense is as bad as it gets. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the Chiefs defense has been. Yet it's the Seahawks who are giving up a league worst 444.5 ypg. 

A pretty staggering number when you consider they have exactly went up against an elite offense. Their 4 games have been against the Colts, Titans, Vikings and 49ers. Just to compare, the Chiefs have at least been bad against good offenses, as they have faced the Ravens, Browns, Chargers and Eagles. 

I think it's pretty safe to say the Rams have an elite offense with Matthew Stafford and it's without question the best offense and quarterback Seattle will have seen so far this year. 

I just don't see Wilson and that Seahawks offense being able to go score for score with Stafford and the Rams in this one. Give me the Rams -1.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Steelers +6.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Pittsburgh catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Packers. Everyone has written off the Steelers after back-to-back ugly home losses to the Raiders and Bengals. It's almost like their Week 1 23-16 win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point dog doesn't exist. 

There's not many teams I feel better about backing with their backs against the wall as a dog than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-22 ATS when listed as an underdog since Tomlin took over as head coach and are 28-17 ATS when they are a road dog. Steelers are also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a loss by 10 or more to a division rival. 

Aside from how good Pittsburgh has been in this spot historically, I also think this is a good spot here to bet against Green Bay off their thrilling win at San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. 

I'm also not completely sold on this Packers offense. They have not ran the ball well at all, 80 ypg and just 3.4 yards/carry and have not had more than 255 yards passing in any game. I also think you got to keep in mind they just played two awful secondaries in Detroit and San Francisco.

This Steelers defense is no joke and are starting to get back to full strength on that side of the ball. I think their ability to defend the pass and put pressure on the QB is going to be huge in this game. I also think they will be able to slow down the Rodgers to Adams connection. Much like we saw in Week 1, when the Saints held Adams to just 5 catches for 56 yards. 

Adding to this, Pittsburgh is 68-33 (67.3%) ATS last 101 times they have faced a team that averages more than 7 passing yards/attempt. Give me the Steelers +6.5! 

50* (NFL) - NFC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR (Giants +7.5) 

I absolutely love the Giants as a 7.5-point road dog against the Saints on Sunday. You got everyone wanting to lay the big number here with the Saints in their first game back home and yet we have seen this line drop in favor of the Giants. The smart money is on New York and for good reason. 

I'm just not buying into the hype with New Orleans. They have been all over the place in their first 3 games. They shocked everyone by embarrassing the Packers in Week 1 playing keep away from Aaron Rodgers, they then get beat badly on the road at Carolina and last week take down Belichick and the Pats 28-13. 

I get a win is a win, but you can't ignore the fact that the Saints were outgained in that game by New England 300-252. 

I just don't trust Jameis Winston. He's got an impressive 7-2 TD-INT ratio, but has yet to throw for more than 150 yards in a game this season. Asking a team to cover a 7.5-point spread that has this much trouble moving the ball thru the air is a lot. 

On the flip side of this, the Giants aren't as bad as their 0-3 record. Everyone talks like they this awful team, yet they are only getting outgained by 24 ypg. The Saints are getting outgained by 70 ypg. 

Daniel Jones has also been a covering machine in this spot, going 8-3 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career. I know a lot of the games for Winston came with the Bucs, but it's worth noting that he's just 7-14 ATS as a starter when his team is favored and just 4-12 when his team is laying points at home. This has all the makings of one of those games the Giants don't just cover but win outright. Give me New York +7.5! 

50* (NFL) - AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +3) 

I love the Bengals as a mere 3-point road dog against the Steelers. I'll be the first to admit that I thought this Steelers team was going to be better than people thought. I don't think that anymore. While Pittsburgh's defense is one of the better units in the league, the offense is one of the worst. The Steelers offensive line might be the worst in the NFL and Big Ben looks like he's half the quarterback he was. Roethlisberger is also now dealing with a pec injury, so this doesn't figure to be the game he gets on track. 

I also have big concerns with Pittsburgh's defense is T.J. Watt can't go. He's one of several guys on the defensive side of the ball that are questionable for this game. 

As for the Bengals, I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this team in their first two games. Joe Burrow might not have any better of an offensive line in front of him, but he's shown that he can find a way to make things happen. I also think this Cincinnati defense is vastly underrated. The Bengals are only giving up 304 ypg, 4.7 yards/play and 3.4 yards/rush. Give me Cincinnati +3! 

50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3) 

I just don't understand this line. This to me feels like what the line should be if both teams were at full strength. That's just not the case. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It's really starting to remind me a lot of the 49ers last year, where they had so many guys go out they went 6-10 just one year removed from playing in the SB. 

Everyone knows about all the guys the Ravens have had go down at running back. They also lost one of their best defensive players in corner Marcus Peters. There's also major concern up front on the offensive line. That unit played really bad against a mediocre Raiders defensive front. While it doesn't figure to be long-term, starting left-tackle Ronnie Staley is doubtful to play. The Chiefs are going to LIVE in the Ravens backfield. 

On the flip side of this, I think because the Browns were up the majority of that game last week, people overlook just how good the Chiefs offense was. Kansas City only punted twice that entire game. Only one of their drives didn't end in Cleveland territory. Patrick Mahomes was only sacked twice, which I think speaks volumes to that new offensive line. The Browns got one of the best defensive fronts in the league. 

If Baltimore runs all that man-to-man defense, Mahomes is going to pick them apart if he's got time to throw. Mahomes has really feasted on this Baltimore defense the past few years and this might be his best game versus them yet. Give me the Chiefs -3! 

50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5) 

I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it. 

New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games. 

Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything. 

The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5! 

50* (NFL) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Pats -2.5) 

I will gladly lay less than a field goal at home with the Patriots and I don't care if it's Cam Newton or Mac Jones under center for New England. I don't think people give the Pats enough credit for going 7-9 last year. I know it's nowhere close to the standards we have seen in the last two decades, but I don't know many other coaches that could get 7 wins out of a team with as little talent as NE had after all those guys opted out. 

*I'm extremely excited that it's going to be Jones at QB. I never really thought Cam was a good fit. For NE's offense to thrive, they need to execute at a high level. Cam isn't a guy that can pick apart defenses in the pocket with his arm. It was all about his freakish size and athleticism, which is why he doesn't have a job just a few years removed from winning the MVP. 

They should be one of the best defensive teams in the league this year and I'm pretty confident they are going to get better QB play, whether it's Cam or Jones. I do think it will be Cam and I think if he's healthy, he's going to surprise some people. They are also really strong up front on the o-line and should be able to run the football. 

The Dolphins are a franchise that looks to be headed in the right direction, but I'm not as high on this team as others. I think there's still legit questions on Tua Tagovailoa and if he's a legit franchise QB. I also don't love the weapons he has at his disposal and I got major concerns with their offensive line. Defensively they are going to be solid, but they are more better suited to stop a strong passing attack than a strong run game. Give me the Pats -2.5! 

50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3) 

This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores. 

That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket. 

Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl. 

As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3! 

50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3

I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts. 

That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122. 

I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3! 

50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7) 

I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20. 

For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7! 

50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5) 

I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday. 

I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316. 

This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5) 

I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting. 

This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops.  LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent. 

The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5! 

50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3) 

I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily. 

The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. 

On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! 

50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5) 

I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit.

I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters. 

Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3) 

I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27. 

The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength. 

Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3! 

50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3) 

I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week. 

Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals. 

I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! 

50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3) 

I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York. 

It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC). 

I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3! 

50* PATRIOTS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -4.5) 

I really like the Rams to cover the 4.5-point spread at home against the Patriots. I think a lot of people are taking New England in this game because of the fact that the Pats have won 4 of 5 and are off a 45-0 thrashing of the Chargers. They also remember what Belichick and that Pats defense did to Goff and the Rams offense in the Super Bowl a few years back. 

I just don't that I'm buying New England being this vastly improved team all of the sudden. I think the offense has major flaws. While they scored 45 in their last game, they finished that game with fewer than 300 yards of total offense (291). Pats are a run-first team and that plays right into the strength of the Rams defense. 

I also think McVay and Rams offense will be better prepared for what Belichick is going to throw at them this time around. I'm not saying they are going to go off for 30+ points or anything like that, but I think if they can get into the mid 20s, they have a great shot of winning by 5+ points. Give me the Rams -4.5! 

50* COWBOYS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -7.5) 

I just think this is the spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens have went from one of the top Super Bowl contenders to a team that is on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the AFC. With the 3 Wild Card teams (Browns, Dolphins and Colts) all sitting at 8-4 or better, Baltimore absolutely has to have this game. They are every bit in it with a win, which would move them to 7-5. If they fall to 6-6, they are in serious trouble. 

I know this team has had quite the deal with Covid, but they are getting a lot of guys back. It's also worth pointing out that while they are playing on just 5 days of rest, this will be just their second game since Nov. 22nd. 

I also love the matchup. Dallas can't stop the run and that's the one thing this Ravens team does really well. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys offensive line has been absolutely decimated with injuries. I just don't think they will be able to do much of anything on that side of the ball. Give me the Ravens -7.5! 

50* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +7) 

I like the price we are getting with Washington against the Steelers. It's been pretty hectic for Pittsburgh of late. They had a game scheduled against the Ravens on Thanksgiving that didn't get played until last Wednesday. That was a big division game and it ended up being a lot closer than expected. 

Now the Steelers have to find a way to get back up on just 4 days of rest to face a hungry and vastly improved Washington squad. Alex Smith might not be the QB he was, but he's better than what the Football Team had. Washington also has a dominant defensive line that I believe will make it really tough on what I think is a very overrated Steelers offense. 

I know Steelers defense has been really strong this season, but they have struggled a bit against the run of late. Washington can definitely take advantage of that and if Smith gets rolling they can win this game outright. Give me the Football Team +7! 

50* BENGALS/DOLPHINS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dolphins -10.5) 

I was on the wrong end of an ugly Bengals cover last week, as I had the Giants -5.5 and Cincinnati somehow got the cover doing next to nothing on offense the entire game. That's not going to deter me from fading the Bengals again, even at this big number. 

There's only a handful of games left and Miami is 1-game back of the Bills for the AFC East lead. I just don't see this team not showing up for this game at home and that's really the only way I see them not covering here. The Dolphins are even better defensively than the Giants and even if it's Tua and not Fitzmagic, Miami's offense is more potent than New York's, especially with them getting back running back Myles Gaskin after he missed the last 4 games. 

This Dolphins defense has made a living this year turning turnovers into points. I would be shocked here if they didn't have multiple turnovers in this one. Bengals had 3 last week against the Giants. Give me Miami -10.5! 

50* FBALL TEAM/COWBOYS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +3) 

I will gladly take the 3-points with Washington, as they visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The books know everyone is going to be on Dallas in this game, especially after their big win over the Vikings last Sunday. It wreaks of a trap. 

What people will overlook with the Cowboys strong showing against the Vikings is that Minnesota's defense is not very good. The biggest thing is the Vikings don't have the talent on the defensive line to exploit a bad Dallas offensive line. That's not the case against the Foortball Team. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league. 

People also are quick to forget that these two teams played once already and the Football Team won convincingly 25-3 with a 397 to 142 edge in total yards. Andy Dalton was just 9 of 19 for 75 yards in that game and the Washington defense racked up 6 sacks in that contest. 

Cowboys defense had no answer for Washington's run game, as they racked up 208 yards on 39 attempts (5.3 yards/carry). Kyle Allen started that game, but only threw for 194 yards, so no reason not to expect the same or better numbers from Alex Smith in the rematch. Give the Football Team +3! 

50* RAMS/BUCS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -4) 

There's been a lot made of the Bucs struggles in prime time games, but I don't see that being an issue here. Tom Brady knows how to win these big games and I love that he's got a full compliment of weapons at his disposal against the Rams. 

I know LA's defense has put up great numbers and just had a great game last week against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I'm just not buying into them being as good as their numbers. 

Rams have played a pretty easy schedule. They started the season with 4 of their first 5 games against the NFC East. Their other 5 opponents have been the Bills (L), 49ers (L), Bears (W), Dolphins (L) and Seahawks (W). 

I also think not enough is being made here of the fact that the Rams won't have left tackle Andrew Witworth. He's one of the best at his position. There's a massive drop off from Witworth and backup Joe Noteboom. 

I see that being a big problem against a really strong Tampa Bay defensive front. It's also worth pointing out that LA's offense really needs to be able to run the ball to set up easy throws for Goff. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, as they are allowing just 77 ypg an 3.3 yards/carry vs the run this year. Give me the Bucs -4! 

50* PACKERS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +1.5)

I love the value here with Green Bay catching points against the Colts. I know Indianapolis has a great defense, but it's more suited to stop the run than it is the pass. I just think with the Packers recent struggles we are getting them at a great price in a great matchup. 

Not only do I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense when they have the ball, but I also think it's a great matchup for the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest weakness is their run defense and running the ball is far from the strength of this Colts team. Indy is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and that's against teams who give up on average 4.3 yards/carry. 

I also just don't trust Philip Rivers in this spot. As a starter, Rivers is just 11-21 ATS in his last 32 starts at home as a favorite. Green Bay is also a great bet after a game where they failed to cover. Packers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a ATS loss. Give me Green Bay +1.5! 

50* CARDINALS/SEAHAWKS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY on Seahawks -3

I will gladly lay just a field goal at home with the Seahawks on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. There's a lot to like about Seattle in this spot. For one, everyone is down on this team after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 16-23 loss at the Rams last week. Russell Wilson has went from MVP frontrunner to a guy taking a lot of the blame for the team losing with his costly turnovers. 

Factor all that with the fact that Seattle will be out for revenge from a loss to Arizona earlier this season and I just think we are going to get a big time performance out of not just Wilson but this entire team. At the same time, I think Arizona could struggle in this spot. They are coming off a crazy Hail Mary win over the Bills and it could be hard for them to not have a lull after such an emotional high a few days ago. 

Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS under Pete Carroll in home games off a division loss by 7 points or less and have not just won in this spot, they have dominated by an average score of 31.7 to 16.3 Seahawks are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 revenging a loss of 7-points or less and 20-10 in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me Seattle -3! 

50* VIKINGS/BEARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bears +3.5) 

Love Chicago as a small home dog on MNF. I was hoping the line would get past 3, as the hook is huge. Bears always seem to be in close games.

That's not saying I think they will need it. I'm going to bet on Chicago's defense and hope we get something from an offense that will have a new look to it. 

Let's look at the defense first. Bears have had their way with Minnesota's offense since Cousins came to town. Chicago has swept the season series each of the last two years. All 4 games they held the Vikings offense to 20 or less. 

A big reason they succeed against the Vikings, is they have been able to contain Dalvin Cook. In 3 games against the Bears he's totaled just 86 yards on 34 carries, which is a mere 2.5 yards/carry. Cousins just isn't good enough to win the game on his own against an elite secondary like Chicago. Not to mention he's 0-9 in his career as a starter on Monday Night Football. 

First things first with the Bears offense, the offensive line is a major concern. There's reason to be optimistic that it can make do in this one. Vikings have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. Chicago is also changing things up with the play calling. Head coach Matt Nagy is giving up the duties to Bill Lazor. They also may get a spark at RB, as Lamar Miller is set to make his debut tonight. Give me the Bears +3.5! 

50* BILLS/CARDINALS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -2) 

I will gladly sell high on the Bills after their big win over the Seahawks last week. I just don't trust Josh Allen, especially on the road. Arizona's defense isn't great, but it is a little better at defending the pass than the run, which is great against a Bills team that can't run the ball. 

On top of that, the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated in this spot. Arizona was just upset at home 34-31 by the Dolphins. It's a game that couldn't have set well with the players, as they outgained Miami 442 to 312. 

I look for Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense to have a field day here. Unlike the Seahawks, who couldn't get the run game going against a bad Bills run defense, Arizona will run all over this defense. Cardinals have rushed for 100+ yards in every game. Give me the Cardinals -2! 

50* BUCS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -5.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with Tom Brady and the Bucs in last week's game at home against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. It happens. Tampa Bay got punched in the mouth early and just couldn't get back up off the mat. 

It can be hard to trust a team that looked that bad in their last game, but I love backing good teams in this spot, especially ones with a top tier quarterback. I fully expect Brady and the Bucs to play one of their best games of the season. 

All anyone is talking about is "Teddy Covers", but I just think the Panthers are not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. I just don't think that o-line will be able to hold up against Tampa's pass rush. Give me the Bucs -5.5! 

50* SAINTS/BUCS NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bucs -4) 

I love Tom Brady and the Bucs at this price. I don't know how you can bet against Tampa Bay in this spot. How many prime time home games did Brady ever let New England lose, especially in the 2nd half of the season? 

Like it or not the Bucs have assembled quite the super team in the NFC and will be debuting Antonio Brown this week. If Brown can just shut up and play football, this could be quite the combo in TB. While it make take a game or two for Brown to get up to speed, keep in mind he does have some built up chemistry with Brown from his brief stint with the Pats last year. 

I know New Orleans is getting back their star wide out in Michael Thomas, but I'm just not convinced he's going to fix this offense. Brees just doesn't have the arm strength to threat defenses with the deep pass. I think it could be a recipe for disaster against a Bucs defense that likes to play downhill. We all saw what this defense did when it was locked in against Rodgers and the Packers a few weeks ago. 

I simply trust the Bucs offense a lot more to move the ball and put up points in this one. Brady and Tampa Bay get their revenge from an earlier loss at New Orleans (Week 1 and Brady played bad). Give me the Bucs -4! 

50* RAVENS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -2)

I absolutely love Baltimore in this spot. Everyone is down on the Ravens right now. This team has went from AFC favorite to many people's third best option behind KC and Pittsburgh. I know some key guys are out, but this is a deep and talented roster. This is the team I want to be backing with their backs against the wall. 

I know Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in some of their losses, but let's not overlook the fact that they outgained the Steelers last week 457 to 221. If they don't turn it over 4 times, they win that game going away. Keep in mind Baltimore only had 5 turnovers all season before that game. 

No disrespect to the Colts, who I was on last week and have played a lot early on, but I just don't think home field is going to be enough for them to beat the Ravens in this spot. Indy was on the other end of a misleading scoreboard. Not saying Colts shouldn't have won, but they won by 20 despite only outgaining the Lions 366 to 326. 

I just don't think Indy as good as their 5-2 record. Their wins are against the Vikings (early on), Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. The only one of those teams with a winning record is Chicago, who is 5-3 with all 5 wins decided by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Ravens -2! 

50* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) 

I got no problem paying a little extra to get the Ravens down to -3, as I feel really good about them not losing at that price. To me it feels like when Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Chiefs on MNF back in Week 3, people started questioning how good this Ravens team. 

I think that's a mistake. This team has won 3 straight since that loss. The first two weren't close, as they took out Washington 31-17 on the road and then beat the Bengals 27-3 at home. They did only beat the Eagles by 2, 30-28, but that was a very misleading score. Ravens took their foot off the gas in a game they were in complete control of and it nearly cost them. 

Now they are coming out of their bye week and everyone is calling for the Steelers to win this game. Even though Baltimore is the favorite, I think they kind of feel disrespected and are going to treat this more like they are the underdog. I think that makes them a real scary team in this spot. 

I like Pittsburgh, but I just don't know if they are as gooda s people think. Their two best wins are against the Titans and Browns. They have also benefited from getting to play 4 of 6 at home. First time all year they will be on the road in back-to-back weeks. 

I just feel the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Give me Baltimore -3! 

50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5) 

I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play. 

There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow. 

Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize. 

Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5!