CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs Central Florida @ 3:30 ET - Current line is in the 9 or 9.5 range here and I am going to challenge the big favorite to win this by double digits. Baylor is expected to Shapen back at QB for this one while Central Florida is still without Plumlee. I know the Bears are 1-3 this season but their 3 losses this season were to an improved Texas State team and to Utah and Texas! These are all solid teams that entered this week's action with a combined 11-1 record on the season! I don't think Baylor is what they use to be BUT they are also much better than their record shows and Shapen is a very strong QB that will give this team a huge boost this week. UCF is also not what they use to be and, though they have been surviving without Plumlee in recent weeks they will struggle more without him in a tougher game like this. The Bears feel their backs are to the wall and they get their starting QB back and there is a feeling of "now or never" for Baylor. I think they will come out strong and this Knights team is not what they use to be. UCF is 3-1 this season but 2 of the wins against FCS schools and one of those was against Boise State and the Broncos are not as strong as in the past. Also, coming off a loss against Kansas State last week that ended their unbeaten start to the season, the Knights may be thinking they just come home and all is well again because they are in the Bounce House. However, this Bears team is going to come to play and an outright win would not surprise me. At the very least I expect the road dog to lose this one by only a one score margin if they even lose. 10* BAYLOR (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14

CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points)

Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7:30 ET - My money is on Georgia here as their defense responds after rare sub-par performances recently. The Bulldogs, prior to SEC Championship, had played 12 games in the regular season. Georgia never allowed more than 22 points in a game and their average points allowed was half that at just 11 per game! The Horned Frogs have a solid pass defense but the Bulldogs strength is their ground game on offense and I expect them to run all over TCU in this one. That plus the championship experience edge the Dawgs have gives them a huge edge here. Remember what I said about the Bulldogs defense above? Well the TCU defense has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. Essentially the opposite of the Georgia defensive performance! In those 10 games, the Horned Frogs allowed an average of 31.6 points per game. I would not be surprised if TCU hangs around early in this one but eventually the strength, power, experience edges for the Bulldogs allow them to pull away in this one. 10* GEORGIA -12.5

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - The Big Ten was particularly tough this season and sent 9 teams to bowl games. Entering Monday's action, 6 had already played and they went 4-2 SU with the one of those two losses being Ohio State losing to the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs by 1 point. by the way, the other Big Team that played in a CFP Semi-Final game was Michigan and they fell just short against TCU. The reason I emphasize this is because the Buckeyes and Wolverines were the only two teams to beat Penn State this season. Keep in mind those two schools had a chance to advance to the National Championship and each fell only just short against the best quality in all of CFB. The Pac-12, on the other hand, had more teams ranked but their quality was not as high as the teams like Michigan and Ohio State. Utah lost to Florida this season and the Gators did not even end up with a winning record. The Utes also lost to UCLA and Oregon. Note that UCLA just got upset by Pittsburgh in the bowls and Oregon barely snuck by a North Carolina team that has a bad defense. The Utes are a high quality program for sure but the point is that the two losses PSU had to Michigan and Ohio State should serve them well here and those were two of the top four programs in the nation this season. Utah has been hit harder by opt-outs than the Lions heading into this one and also the edge in special teams play goes to the Nittany Lions. 10* PENN STATE +1.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - The Buckeyes have had a great season but they were losing to Penn State with 9 minutes to go, then got outgained by Northwestern even though they won the game by 14 points, and were only ahead of Maryland by 3 points until a late explosion in the final MINUTE of the game. They then got hammered by Michigan in their final regular season game. So the point is that 4 of the last 5 games involving Ohio State were not so impressive. The Buckeyes were not the same dominating force we saw in the first 7 games of the season. Now they face the defending champions and the Bulldogs are going to pull away as this game goes on. Georgia allowing only 12.8 ppg this season and their strong ground game on offense as well as their fantastic rush defense on the other side of the ball will prove to be the difference in the trenches as this game goes along. The Bulldogs won and covered both games in last year's post-season and both wins were by double digits. The Buckeyes are just 3-3 SU/ATS last 6 games in the CFB playoff match-ups. Ohio State is a high-quality team ot say the least but I just do not see the Dawgs being denied here and like them to win this game by at least a touchdown. 10* GEORGIA -5.5

Bowl Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - The Wolverines are undefeated but I just can not ignore the lousy track record of coach Harbaugh in big games including bowl games. Also, about Michigan, they were up by only 5 points with less than 7 minutes to go against a mediocre Maryland team in a game that they eventually won by 7 points and that game was at Ann Arbor. Though they did eventually pull away against Penn State and there is no arguing they deserved the big win, the Nittany Lions did have a 3rd quarter lead in that one in 3rd quarter. Also, they had to rally in the 4th quarter of the win over Illinois and again this was a home game for them. Of course at 13-0 and with plenty of dominating wins, the Wolverines are a very strong team. But I like getting more than a TD with a Horned Frogs team that has had a huge season and has prevailed against all odds all season long. I don't see why that would change here. Yes they lost the Big 12 Championship - though in OT - but still had a huge season and that loss was by just 3 points. With a dynamic offense, look for the Horned Frogs to hang around all game long in this one too. I just don't see Michigan winning this one by more than 1 score. Also, an outright upset certainly would not shock me. All the pressure to win here is on Michigan and that is dangerous. The Horned Frogs could prove to be the much more relaxed team and that will pay dividends. 8* TCU +8.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks +4 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - I really like the way Spencer Rattler played late in the season and, overall, the way the Gamecocks played in earning a couple of upset wins late in the year as well. This South Carolina team has a ton of momentum plus they have their starting quarterback here. Conversely, the Fighting Irish closed the season with a disappointing loss plus they lost QB Drew Pyne so they will be using little-used Buchner in this match-up as he has been out much of the season. The Gamecocks enter this one on a 7-2 SU / ATS run. The Fighting Irish enter this game on a 5-2 SU run but 1 of those wins by just 3 points so only 4 of last 7 games were wins by more than the margin on this game and, again, this is a tough spot facing an SEC team that has the QB edge in a big way. I like the momentum of Rattler and the Gamecocks and the fact we are getting more than a field goal here. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA +4

Bowl Thursday 10* Minnesota Golden Gophers -10.5 vs Syracuse in Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY @ 2 ET - The Orange rallied late for a win over BC in their season finale but this followed 5 straight losses. Boston College had a bad season too so this is not much to be proud of. The fact is Syracuse faded badly in the 2nd half of the season and they will be no match here for this tough Minnesota team. The Golden Gophers are too strong with their running game and will push the Orange defense all over the field throughout this game. Syracuse does not have the weapons on offense to keep up here. Note that Minnesota allowed 16 points or less in all 5 of its final games and won 4 of those 5 games. Conversely, the Orange defense allowed 34 points per game in its 5 game losing streak plus did allow 23 to a bad Eagles team in its season finale. This one gets ugly. Lay it! 10* MINNESOTA -10.5

Bowl Saturday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +7 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Just going to challenge the Aztecs to score enough to cover the full TD here. I just don't see that happening. San Diego State has not run the ball as well as they have in recent seasons. They made a switch at QB during the season that helped the team some but also I have to question their motivation here. Last season the Aztecs had a strong year and finished with a dozen wins on the year including their bowl victory over UTSA. This season they are just 7-5 on the year and they face a Middle Tennessee team that could be the hungrier team with this rare trip to Hawaii for them. MTSU wants to make the most of this rare opportunity and, though they have the weaker defense in this match-up, they do have the stronger offense. 3 of the 7 Aztecs wins this season were by 4 or less points. If you look at this match-up "on paper" as they saying goes you may think that San Diego State should dominate and, indeed, the line movement has followed that assumption. I like to fade line moves when the situation is right and this is one of those. Look for the more motivated team - the underdog in this case - to stay inside a 1-score margin in this one and possibly even pull of the upset. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7

Bowl Friday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +2.5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 6:30 ET - The Tigers are facing a Demon Deacons team that had a lead in all 12 of their games this season yet lost 5 of the 12. They also wrapped up the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. The point is that no lead is safe with Wake Forest and the Tigers are the much better team on defense. The Demon Deacons have allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games. Missouri allowed 27 points or less in ALL but TWO of their DOZEN games this season. The Tigers started the season only 2-4 but they have 3 close losses to solid SEC foes like Auburn, Georgia, and Florida. Now Missouri very focused on getting a bowl win after falling just short last year versus Army. The Tigers won their final two games this season to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. Now Missouri wants to get that 7th win to get to their first winning season in 4 years. Like the motivation factor here while Wake Forest had an 11-3 season last year and went 7-1 in the ACC and played in a New Year's Eve bowl. Will they be motivated enough here? That is a legitimate question for sure and I feel the hungrier team with the far superior defense gets the win here. 10* MISSOURI +2.5

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons +3.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 7:30 ET - Brutal weather in Fort Worth, TX expected for this one. Temperatures in the teens with wind chills possibly in the teens below zero. I would be the first one to tell you that Air Force is a bit over-rated based on their strength of schedule but there are some key factors here supporting the underdog Falcons. First off the weather is going to help the run-based Falcons offense. Also, Air Force is more used to playing in bad weather games because they play in the mountain west conference. Also, how motivated will Baylor be for this game? Yes it is just up the road from Waco in Fort Worth but the Bears can't be too thrilled about playing in this game after winning the Big 12 title last season. Baylor only ended up 6-6 this season and they recently fired defensive coordinator. This is the Armed Forces Bowl and so you know that the Falcons will come to this game motivated and ready as service academy schools are certainly known for being fully prepared for the biggest of games. Discipline and structure on one side in this one and even if they are the weaker side the fact that motivation and weather go in their favor here plus the fact we are getting 3.5 points to work with as well means that the underdog is the play here. 10* AIR FORCE +3.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +4 vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 9 ET - With QB Austin Reed deciding NOT to enter the transfer portal and the fact he WILL play in this game means the Hilltoppers offense is going to be operating at full efficiency for this one. Western Kentucky's passing offense will key this one. South Alabama has lost and failed to cover each of their last two bowl appearances. Now here the Jaguars are favored because of their 10-2 record but the 8-5 Hilltoppers are the play! Don't let the records fool you. The Jags just don't have a potent enough offense to keep up with the underdog in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY +4

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets -3.5 vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets catch a Flames team that struggled late in the season plus has an interim head coach. I also am a contrarian and love the fact that Rockets are 0-4 SU/ATS last 4 bowls and Liberty is 3-0 SU/ATS last 3 bowls. Toledo has been upset in recent bowls and should bounce back here with a strong effort. The Rockets are desperate to end the bowl streak of losses. They have the firepower to get the job done here. Liberty closed the season with 3 straight losses including a UConn team that got hammered by Marshall already in this bowl season. The Flames also lost to Virginia Tech who went 3-8 this season and also lost to a New Mexico State team by 35 and the Aggies barely limped into bowl season. Rockets have momentum after beating Ohio University in the MAC Championship Game too! When I match these teams up I just can not see any areas of the game where I give Liberty the edge. That said, laying the short number is very fair here. 10* TOLEDO -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators +8.5 vs Oregon State Beavers @ 2:15 ET - Typical contrarian play for me. Yes I know the Gators have some opt-outs but this line has jumped too high and Florida is not getting near enough respect here. I feel strongly that, given all the extra prep time plus the fact QB Jack Miller was highly recruited and came over from Ohio State will lead to a stronger performance here than most are expecting. Florida is well-coached and will be fully prepared here and this is a solid SEC team taking on an Oregon State team that had gone 9-22 from 2018 to 2020. The Beavers did go 7-6 last season but now after the 9-3 this season are a little over-rated here. I am not saying Oregon State will not win this bowl game but an upset would not surprise me. At the very least, the Gators will stay within a single score margin here. 10* FLORIDA +8.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave -3.5 vs Central Florida Knights @ 4 ET - UCF has had the number of the Green Wave for years now including the meeting earlier this season. That said, why is Tulane favored by more than a field goal here? Exactly! Lay it! This game is priced this way for a reason! The Green Wave have the better defense in this match-up. Their star RB is now healthier. Conversely, the UCF QB Plumlee is set to play in this one but he is not 100%. He is dealing with a hamstring issue. Look for a big ground game from the Green Wave here and look for the Knights offense to continue to stammer and stutter a bit as they have been in recent games. Just do not think Plumlee will be himself here. The Knights defense has had some lapses recently and remember they recently lost to Navy and plus had to rally late, after blowing a huge lead, in their win over a bad South Florida team. So this UCF team is not peaking at the right time and, for the Green Wave, their only AAC loss was to Central Florida and now they can get revenge here. 10* TULANE -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans +19 @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Spartans need a win to be a bowl eligible. Do I think Michigan State will win this outright? No. Do I think Michigan State is a dangerous double digit dog that is going to fight like hell in this game? Yes. Absolutely! The fact is this is just too many points. Yes the Spartans lost to Indiana last week but they outgained the Hoosiers 540 to 288 but still found a way to blow a 24-7 lead and then eventually lose in double overtime. It was a disheartening loss but Michigan State upset Penn State last season and absolutely believes they can do it again here despite the huge line. Now I certainly know that the Nittany Lions are on a red hot ATS run and have been piling up big wins. However, just like the Spartans, they lost big to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State is 4-2 last 6 games but the wins against Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers. None of those are powerhouses and certainly Michigan State is no powerhouse either. But they can compete on the road again here just like they did in most recent road game at Illinois when they won outright as a double digit dog! You can bet the Spartans feel they can do the exact same thing here and there is not only added confidence from that result but also from last week's huge yardage edge over the Hoosiers. Michigan State knows they deserved better and will go hard again this week. Spartans only have 3 losses by more than this margin this season and two of them were to the same Michigan and Ohio State teams that both beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions do not have huge motivation here as they will not be playing for the Big Ten title game and simply look ahead to their big bowl match-up. The Lions certainly want to win their home finale and to continue playing well but there is no arguing that the Spartans should come in as the hungrier team in desperation mode to earn a 6th win for a bowl bid. They may fall short in their quest but they should at least get the solid cover here! 10* MICHIGAN STATE +19

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers were outgained 540 to 288 by Michigan State last week. They got a miracle win in double OT despite that huge yardage deficit. Now they take on a determined Purdue team that got new life with yesterday's shocking upset of Nebraska knocking off Iowa. The Boilermakers are the only team left in the Big Ten West that controls its own destiny. They win this game and they are in the Big Ten Championship Game to face either Michigan or Ohio State - depending on that outcome in the Big Ten East today. So the set up here is a good one for the Boilers to roll. Indiana had lost 7 straight games (and by an average margin of deficit of 20 points) prior to last week's win which, again, was a deceiving final score. So look for the Boilers offense (27 ppg on the road this season) to produce plenty of points here as they face a struggling Indiana defense that has been torched for game after game of late. Also, the Boilermakers D has allowed just 19 ppg last 3 games and can shut down the Hoosiers who were held under 300 yards last week and were held to 17 points or less in 4 of 5 games heading into that one. Rivalry game but the motivation and talent disparity this season mean the favorite wins this by at least a two touchdown margin. 10* PURDUE -10.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins -10.5 @ California Golden Bears @ 4:30 ET - This sets up beautifully. UCLA is off a tight loss to USC in which they had a 4-1 turnover deficit. California is off a big win over rival Stanford in "The Game" for those long-time rivals. The Bruins enter this game angry and they are so much stronger than Cal. The Golden Bears enter this game content. This is going to turn into a road rout. Normally I don't like to lay big points but this is a rare exception as this game jumped off the page for me given the set-up. UCLA average margin of victory is 26 points the last two meetings with Cal and I fully expect another blowout here. Both teams have some issues on defense for sure but the difference is the prolific offense of the Bruins while the Bears are not strong at all on that side of the ball. Keep in mind the Bears got a 37 yard fumble return for a TD in their comeback win versus the Cardinal last week as they were down by 11 in the 4th quarter! UCLA started the season 6-0 but now has lost 3 of 5 including B2B losses. The Bruins can tie their season record wins record of 10 by winning this game and their bowl game so they still have motivation despite last week's loss to USC. Also, Cal had lost 6 straight games before getting the win over Stanford last week. Bruins one of only six teams in the country averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. 10* UCLA -10.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 or +7 @ Ohio Bobcats @ 7 ET - Ohio is priced this way because they are at home and still motivated to win as they look to win the MAC East. However, their top QB Rourke was on the sidelines with a heavy brace and ice for the 2nd half of last week's game. Even if he is able to play here he will not be 100%. As for Bowling Green, they are off a big 42-35 road win at Toledo to keep their MAC title game hopes alive. They need to win here and then hope Kent State beats Buffalo on Saturday. The road win for the Falcons was no fluke as they are now 3-0 SU in MAC road games this season and have scored an average of 35.7 ppg in winning all 3. Led by a solid (and healthier) QB in McDonald, the Falcons are off an amazing late win against the Bulls that kept their season alive. BG will build off that emotional last second win, they were down 35-34 when they won it on what was very nearly the final play of the game. The Bobcats are not very strong defensively and rely heavily on their offense to win games. The Falcons are peaking at the right time and will give a wounded Ohio U all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. I will take the points. 10* Bowling Green +6.5 or +7

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -7 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - 5-4 team is favored by a full TD over a 7-3 team in a rivalry game. Looks funny, right? Don't let the line fool you. The Sooners being at home for this is big. QB Dillon Gabriel has been much better at home than on the road this season. Gabriel and the entire offense had a rough game at West Virginia last week and it was a 2nd straight 3-point loss for the Sooners. Keep in mind, all five of their wins this season have been by a double digit margin. Oklahoma is going to take advantage of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders not being 100 percent. I know he came in last week to lead the Cowboys to the win versus Iowa State but he started the game on the bench for a reason. Also, that was at home against the Cyclones and now he is on the road and he and OSU now face their biggest rivals and those rivals are having a challenging season and have revenge on their minds. In other words, this is essentially Oklahoma's Championship Game if you will! They want revenge after the Cowboys snuck out the win in last season's meeting! That ended a streak of 6 straight wins for the Sooners in this series. Look for OU to get back to the winning side of things here. At home this season they have scored an average of 40 points per game! Oklahoma State has scored an average of only 12 points in their last 3 games heading into this one. The Cowboys have lost their last two road games by an average margin of 34.5 points. Another ugly defeat for OSU on the road is in the forecast here! 10* OKLAHOMA -7

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars -3.5 @ Arizona Wildcats @ 2 ET - The Cougars have rival Washington on deck but the Wildcats have rival Arizona on deck so that is a wash. Washington State has 4 losses this season but 3 of the losses were to ranked teams! The other loss was at Oregon State but the Cougars did outgain the Beavers in that one so the final score was deceiving. The point is that this Washington State team is quite solid and they certainly have a much better defense than Arizona. The Wildcats are off a huge upset at UCLA as a nearly 3 TD underdog so this is a beautiful set-up for a letdown for Arizona. The Cats had lost 4 straight games prior to beating the Bruins. Arizona has not won B2B games all season. All 6 of their losses by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat is 18.3 points! I know they shocked UCLA last week but, prior to that, Arizona's only 2 losses since winning their season opener were against an FCS school and a Colorado team that has played like an FCS school this season! In their 4 defeats prior to beating the Bruins, Arizona allowed 45 points or more in all 4 losses! The Cougars, on the other hand, have allowed only 19.3 points per game last 6 games. We get a favorable line because they are on the road and I won't hesitate to back the much better team here and much better defense at a very fair number here! 10* WASHINGTON STATE -3.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play New Mexico Lobos +14.5 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 9:45 ET - Yes the Lobos offense has been ugly. But this New Mexico defense is solid and there are situational aspects to this play that make it very unlikely the Aztecs will win this by more than a 2-TD margin so I am happy to grab the 14 plus the hook here in a game I expect to be decided by just a 1-score margin. San Diego State is hot and has won 4 of 5 but note this team is just 1-3 on the road this season. Their lone road win was by 16 points at Nevada but was helped by turnovers too. The Aztecs offense has been better since they switched to Mayden at QB but he threw for only 156 yards against the Wolf Pack. Also, he threw 2 interceptions in his other road start. Being successful on the road is not easy and I expect Mayden and the Aztecs to have some struggles here against a respectable Lobos defense that will be fired up here. This is the bowl game for New Mexico if you will. This is their home finale and has ended up being their biggest game of the season in an otherwise disappointing campaign. New Mexico Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long was the head coach at San Diego State for many years. Long will have his Lobos defense fired up for this one and I expect a tight low-scoring game here which should mean an easy cover for us. San Diego State off big game win versus San Jose State last week plus have another tough big game against Air Force on deck. This is a flat spot situation for the Aztecs whereas the fired up Lobos are fully focused here and want to get the shocker in their home finale. 10* NEW MEXICO +14.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears -2.5 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Bears opened up favored at 3.5 and even as high as -5 at some of the earliest posting shops. Baylor is down to a 2.5 as of game day very early morning. Everyone is seeing that a ranked team is getting points here and everyone sees the stats that Bears were fortunate to beat Sooners at Oklahoma last week. Also, everyone sees that Wildcats deserved better at home against Texas last week. However, this is just all leading to exceptional line value here with a Baylor team that plays different when at home and is catching Kansas State off 3 straight emotional games and that is on the road for the first time in 3 weeks! The Wildcats had a chance to knock off undefeated TCU and did not then they won a huge home game against Oklahoma but fell short against Texas. That is 3 straight very big games for the Cats. Note that they have averaged scoring just 19 points per game last two road games and could be emotionally spent here. Also, the Bears have won 4 straight meetings with Kansas State! The Bears have one home loss this season but they outgained Oklahoma State by nearly 100 yards in the surprising defeat. Their other 3 home games have been won by a combined score of 146 to 40. That includes a Big 12 win over an improved Kansas team in which the Bears had 28 first downs compared to just 11 for the Jayhawks! Remember Baylor is coming off a huge season last year and yes they have regressed a little but this is still a very strong, very well-coached team, that loves to play in Waco and will be riled up for a huge win here over the Wildcats. Fade the line move as the Bears improve to 11-1 their last 12 home games! They are strong here and I do not trust this Kansas State team on the road off of 3 straight huge games. This is a tough spot for them and they will struggle to keep up with the strong offense that the Bears have. 10* BAYLOR -2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 vs Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - Maryland just got blasted at Wisconsin and has failed to cover 4 straight games. Not only is this a B2B road game situation for the Terrapins, they will be facing a very motivated Nittany Lions team. Yes, Penn State did win at Maryland last season but they also have not forgotten the Terps last visit to State College. That was in the pandemic-impacted 2020 season and the Nittany Lions lost 35-19 despite having nearly twice as many first downs in the game. PSU was about a 4 TD favorite in that game but was done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit and got embarrassed at home. The Lions will be ready for payback here and, with this line dropping a little bit, I feel we have excellent value here. The average margin of victory in Penn State's last 6 wins is 25.5 points. All 6 were by a double digit margin. The Nittany Lions most recent home game was a loss to Ohio State and, as noted above, they did lose to Maryland last time they met here. Those two factors mean that the Nittany Lions will be very focused here. Insuring that focus is the fact they have Rutgers (1-4 in Big Ten action) on deck. Lay it and look for the hosts to pull away as this game gets into the 2nd half. 10* PENN STATE -10.5

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa has QB issues. Brin has been hurting and, even if he plays, he has been throwing too many picks lately. The other option for the Golden Hurricane QB is Braxton but he is a freshman and would be making a road start here against an angry Memphis team that has lost 4 straight games and is ready for a huge bounce back here. The Tigers are much better than their record shows and this is their final AAC home game of the season. In a primetime situation on a Thursday night, I look for Memphis to put on a show in this one! Beautiful weather expected for this one and the Tigers can put up huge points at home in this one. I just don't think, even though Memphis D is not a strength, that Tulsa can keep up here given their QB situation. The Golden Hurricane have just 3 wins this season and they have come against a Northern Illinois team that entered this week with a 2-7 record. Also an FCS school, Jacksonville State, and a Temple team that is 1-4 in conference games this season. Tulsa's last 5 losses all by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat has been 15 points. As for Memphis, yes they have been losing but they faced some tough match-ups and lost some tight games too. The Tigers will take advantage here of taking a step down in level of opposition. Keep in mind, Memphis lost by a single point then lost a game in 4-OT, then lost B2B games against teams that were ranked in Top 25. The Tigers 4 wins this season all by double digit margins and average margin of victory was 17 points. Getting them at under a TD here is a great bargain price. Look for huge home win in a statement game for the Tigers. 10* MEMPHIS -6.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes -2.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Love the set-up and the motivational/pressure factors in this one plus the line. Why would Kent State be favored by 2.5 on the road when they are 3-6 on the season and Bowling Green is having a winning season including 4-1 in MAC play? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you here. The Golden Flashes have played the much tougher schedule overall as well as within the MAC. The Falcons are over-rated right now. Kent State certainly has the much better offense in this match-up with Schlee back under center. Also, all the pressure is on Bowling Green here. With Ohio University's win last night, BG needs a win here to maintain a tie atop the MAC East standings and plus Buffalo (in action tonight) is in the mix as well. That said, Falcons are feeling pressure while Golden Flashes looking to play the role of spoiler. Kent State has won 4 straight meetings and by a combined score of 186 to 92. All 4 wins have been by at least 7 points so were are testing a 100% streak here and the Golden Flashes have truly dominated this period as they have doubled up the Falcons in total points the past 4 years. Kent State averaging 28 points scored in their 5 MAC games but is off a tight loss last week. Bowling Green is on a 3-game winning streak but has scored an average of only 18 points last 4 MAC games! The Falcons have not had a 4-game winning streak since the 2015 season! They are over-rated right now and playing with pressure they are not use to. The Golden Flashes take advantage. 10* KENT STATE -2.5

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - I know there are major questions at quarterback for both teams entering this one. I know the markets have moved toward Kansas in this game. I am happy to grab the extra value on a well-coached Oklahoma State team that is off a thoroughly embarrassing 48-0 loss last week. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have beaten the Jayhawks 12 straight times. Also, OSU was 6-1 SU and ATS prior to that loss last week to the Wildcats. The only loss that Okla St had suffered this season, prior to last week, was a defeat in double-OT. In other words, I feel we have seen a severe over-reaction to last week's result and we are getting value with a Cowboys team that is sure to come out angry and focused for this game. I know Jayhawks are better than past teams but their defense has been very bad too. Though Kansas enters this game off a bye, they had lost 3 straight games and by an average margin of 10 points per defeat before that week off. Lets not forget that OSU was a top ten team entering last week's game. They should bounce back strong here no matter the QB situation for either side. I know the emotion that Cowboys are going to bring to this team under coach Gundy! Look for the 12-0 run in favor of the Cowboys in meetings between these foes to make it 13 in a row! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

Saturday CFB 10* Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - Looks like most of the weather is going to move through before this game gets underway so this one is a go for me after having to wait it out a bit. Penn State should roll to a huge win here just like they did after losing badly at Michigan last month. The Nittany Lions turned around and rolled the Gophers. Yes this time the Lions are on the road and Indiana is off a bye week but this Hoosiers team has lost 5 straight games. This included a loss to Rutgers in their most recent game and they lost WR Cam Camper to a season-ending ACL injury in that one too! Sean Clifford had huge numbers for PSU versus Ohio State last week but also had turnover problems. He has been challenged by his head coach as a result of that and I expect he and this Penn State offense to attack a bad Hoosiers defense all day long in this one! On the other side of the ball, the Indiana offense has struggled in recent games and losing their top WR certainly will not help matters. The Hoosiers already have 3 losses by 14 or more points and this one should fall into this category as well. Be warned that there is a chance that Lions could start a little slow out of the gate, though I am not expecting that, but the Lions will come ROARING back either way as they are just too much for this bad Hoosiers team. 10* PENN STATE -13.5

CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET - The Cowboys have been a covering machine this season and they enter this game red hot ATS. Not only that, Kansas State is off a loss at TCU plus won their prior game by just a single point and already lost a home game versus Tulane this season too. Also, the Wildcats are hosting an OSU team that has performed well as a Big 12 road dog under Gundy and I love the fact the line has flipped here. The Cowboys have gone from being the favorite to the dog in this one. Kansas State did beat Oklahoma by a TD this season but that win is looking less impressive now that the Sooners have struggled so much this season. The point is that I am not a believer in the Cats being a very solid 5-2 team. The Cowboys, in my opinion, are a very strong 6-1 team that suffered it's only loss this season in double OT! OSU is off big win versus Texas but Cowboys do NOT have a penchant for letdowns under Gundy. His team will be ready here and having a veteran QB like Spencer Sanders is a HUGE plus as well! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +15.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Remember when Penn State was so awful against Michigan and got blasted by the Wolverines? Yes? Well, so does everyone else and that is impacting this line. You know who remembers it the most? These Nittany Lions! They are at home and with a chance to make up for that embarrassment. They know they are better than that. They are not Ohio State and they are HIGHLY unlikely to beat the Buckeyes here. However, in my opinion, they also are HIGHLY unlikely to lose this game by more than 2 TDs. In fact, I expect this game to be decided by a single score as PSU has something to prove here and is capable of playing tough hard-nosed football against a very strong OSU team here. 10* PENN STATE +15.5

Friday CFB 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -3 vs East Carolina Pirates @ 8 ET - This is as much a play against East Carolina as it is a play on BYU and, trust me, the Pirates are solid and respectable team. But I think the difference in the current level of these two programs is not being properly estimated by the betting markets here. Not only that, traveling West for a weekday game is not easy and is not something the Pirates are really use to either. They have been particularly spoiled by their early season schedule. That, to me, is one of the biggest keys here. I personally do not feel the AAC is a very strong conference. Yes, Cincinnati and UCF have had their moments in recent seasons but this is still not a Power 5 Conference like the SEC or Big 12 or Big Ten or ACC or Pac-12. So far this season East Carolina's toughest game had been versus NC State and though they fell just short that tight loss is becoming less impressive with each successive ATS loss that the Wolfpack continue to suffer. Now credit must be given for the Pirates beating UCF last week but that was a turnover-fueled win as the yardage and first downs were about equal. Plus East Carolina was at home for that one and the 21-point margin of victory is serving to give us line value here. BYU is an independent but has played a ton of tough match-ups. Tough game have included facing Baylor and Oregon and Notre Dame and Arkansas. Look for the battle-tested Cougars to bounce back and respond after an embarrassing loss at Liberty last week as they take advantage of home field here and stop their 3-game losing streak! 10* BYU -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - Penn State is certainly no powerhouse this season but the same holds true for Minnesota and yet if you factor in the home field edge for this one it is almost as if the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field and I disagree with that assessment and feel we have excellent line value here! Minnesota is 4-2 this season but the wins were against New Mexico State, Western Illinois, Colorado and Michigan State. Well NM St and Colorado are very bad football teams. Michigan St is having a down season and W. Ill is an FCS school. The Golden Gophers opened the season 4-0 but against those teams. They have since been absolutely been dominated by an Illinois team that is playing very well but is certainly no Michigan (that is who PSU just lost to) and and the Golden Gophers also lost at home by double digits to a Boilermakers team that Penn State defeated earlier this season at Purdue! Also, even though Auburn is down this season the Tigers are an SEC program and PSU crushed them by 29 points. Their schedule has been tougher than that of Minny. I know they have Ohio State on deck but they won't look past this game and they are angry after being completely manhandled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the Wolverines. So this game means more to them than you might think and, after first loss of the season, the Nittany Lions bounce back and also send over-rated Minny to 3rd straight loss! 10* PENN STATE -4.5

CFB Saturday 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Stillwater is not an easy place to play. I know the Cowboys are going to be fired up after they let their game slip away at TCU last week. Yes that was a 2OT loss so you might think that OSU will have trouble bouncing back this week or could be spent physically and emotionally. However, the key is that this game is at home. If it was in Austin, I probably would not trust Oklahoma State here but being at home and angry off the loss to the Horned Frogs and getting 6 points here...it just all adds up to a lot of value. UT is absolutely a much better team under the new coaching regime. However, Texas has only played one true road game (the OU game was neutral site of course) and they lost outright at Texas Tech as a 7 point dog and they had to rally just to send that game to OT. By the way, that same Red Raiders team lost to this same Cowboys team by double digits! Love the home dog value here. When coach Gundy is off a loss he has only lost the money ATS 5 times the last 20 games. Also, the Cowboys have covered 9 of last 11 ATS as an underdog in conference action. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +6

CFB Saturday 8* NC State Wolfpack +3 @ Syracuse Orange @ 3:30 ET - Like the fact that the Wolfpack already have a loss and that it came against a powerful Clemson team. I also like the fact they have a bye week on deck. Conversely, the Orange are undefeated but most of their schedule has been weak. I know Syracuse is off a bye week but they have a huge game at that same Clemson team on deck! The Orange two toughest games recently have been versus Purdue and Virginia. They hung on for the win in each but each were by 3 or less points. I like the fact we are getting the full field goal here and I love the scheduling situation. Yes the Orange will be focused her but they can't help but to be thinking "if we can just win this then we face Clemson as an undefeated team". I think Syracuse gets caught over-thinking it whereas this very strong NC State team already has that first blemish as noted above. So you have a situation where the Wolfpack are playing with less pressure and after their bye week they have a lousy Virginia Tech team on deck. So this means that NC State is fully focused here and I look for the Orange to finally get "peeled" for the first time this season! 8* NC State +3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +4 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on TCU in this revenge spot here. Revenge is over-played for sure in sports! It is a factor for sure but it is often over-valued. The result is you often can get value on the other side by playing against the revenging team. This is one of those cases. You don't think Oklahoma State is motivated too? Remember both these teams come in undefeated. The Cowboys want to stay that way just as bad as the Horned Frogs do. Also, the last 6 times that OSU has been in a game where both they and their opponent were ranked the Cowboys have won 5 of the 6 games and, keep in mind, we're getting 4 points to work with here too! I love the line value in this one because both defenses, deservedly, are much maligned BUT the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with 3.2 sacks per game. Also, Oklahoma State is leading the NATION (FBS) in tackles for a loss with 10.2 per game. So look for both teams to certainly enjoy some success on offense in this one but look for OSU to be the team making the key defensive plays that will be the difference in this game. Last, but certainly not least, note that Spencer Sanders rates the QB edge over Max Duggan in this game. I know both have strong career numbers and Duggan is also having a strong season again but how did he lose the starting job to Chandler Morris coming into this season. The coach saw something there, right? The only reason Duggan is back in there is Morris got hurt. Now I am most definitely NOT saying Duggan is not a good QB, I am just saying that there is a reason all that transpired and now, in the biggest of games, who would you rather be counting on? Sanders or Duggan? To me we have big edges in this game. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +4

CFB Thursday 8* Central Florida Knights -23 vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - This line was as high as 28 but is now down to 23 and I love fading line moves. The fact is the Owls just can not score points. They are 2-3 this season but the 2 wins were against a bad FCS team (Lafayette - PA) and an annually horrible FBS team (Massachusetts). You can practically throw the stats from those 2 games out the window. In their other 3 games, all losses, Temple has scored an average of just 6 points per game! I know it looks like they held Memphis in check in their 24-3 loss before a bye week last week. However, the Tigers had a big game on deck versus the Cougars and they were sleepwalking through the first half before they woke up and dominated the 2nd half. With UCF at home and off a big 2nd half versus SMU last week, I don't think we'll see sleepwalking here. Look for the Knights to be ready from the opening kick and they should win this one in a blowout. Of course Central Florida is going to win this game SU and that is worth noting as the Knights are scoring an average of 41 points per game in their 4 victories. So if Temple hits their average here of 6 points or even if fortunate enough to reach their highest point total (14) they have had in any loss this season, that still puts UCF with an ATS win even if the Knights just hit their scoring average. But truly this looks like a game that the Knights should even score closer to 50 than 40. Blowout time! 8* Central Florida -23 

CFB Wednesday 8* Marshall Thundering Herd -10 vs UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams have been solid defensively but have struggled offensively. However, the more I dug into this match-up it is a game in which the home team has a much better shot at getting the offense going. The Thundering Herd are at home and have the better weapons on offense. I also like the revenge aspect here as Marshall lost to Louisiana in their bowl match-up last year in December. Both teams did not play on Saturday of course because of this being a Wednesday game. Look for the Thundering Herd to benefit more from the time off as they have the better coaching and will be very prepared for this home game after some recent disappointment. This is a Marshall team that was able to rise up and beat Notre Dame earlier this season. The Thundering Herd were a 3 TD underdog in that one so it shows what this team is capable of. The Ragin Cajuns were favored by double digits in each of their two road games this season and yet lost both outright against weaker competition. I think this is the right spot for the Thundering Herd to have one of their best games of the season and for the Louisiana road struggles to again be a major issue. 8* MARSHALL -10

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +4 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET - Love this spot for an underdog upset but happy to grab the points here too. Illinois just won their Game of the Year. The reason I say that is their head coach, Brett Bielema used to coach the Badgers. The Illini just went to Madison last week and beat Wisconsin convincingly on their home turf. Now watch this over-rated Illini bunch come out flat as a pancake for this game. First off, give credit for the win over Wiscy but Badgers nowhere near the team they use to be. Then look at who else this Illinois team has played this season. Wyoming is bad this season, Virginia is bad this season, the Indiana team that the Illini lost to just lost B2B games to Cincy and Nebraska by a combined score of 80 to 45. The other win Illinois has was over an FCS school. Now, I do know that Iowa is off a tough physical battle with Michigan last week. But I also know the Hawkeyes have a bye week on deck and they will go all out here coming off a loss. There is no quit in this physical Iowa team and they will be inspired to go hard for the win in conference action. They did throw for over 200 yards against the Wolverines in a game in which the stats were nearly equal. That is impressive as Michigan is one of the top teams in the country. Look for the Hawkeyes to be able to run and pass better than you would expect against this over-rated Illini defense that could come out flat here too. Iowa hungry off a loss and lets not forget the allowed an average of only 6 points per game first 4 games! That did include a 3 point loss to a solid Iowa State team. The Hawkeyes have only lost once in last 14 meetings with Illini and that includes 8-0 SU last 8. I fully expect that streak to reach 9 here but am happy to take the 4 points as added insurance too. 10* IOWA +4

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -3.5 vs North Carolina @ 4 ET - Remember when everyone was so down on Notre Dame earlier this season? You might be asking what that has to do with this play but, quite a lot actually, and I will explain. The Fighting Irish were on an 0-2 ATS run and 1-2 SU run and off a non-covering win versus Cal after an embarrassing loss to Marshall. Their next game was AT this North Carolina team. Even at Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels got embarrassed. The game was 38-20 entering the 4th quarter and, for the game the Irish outgained UNC 576 to 367. Keep in mind the game was 38-14 before UNC gained 230 yards and scored 18 points over the final 20 minutes of the game after it was already out of hand. The point is that the Tar Heels had one test this season and they failed miserably. Now they are on the road and facing a similar foe. This Hurricanes team is angry and off a bye week. Miami should have beat Texas A & M a few weeks ago - we had the Canes there and they dominated everything but the scoreboard. Then, after that demoralizing loss, Miami came out flat and lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a big favorite. Then the bye week last week and now you have an angry Hurricanes team that, by the way, is playing their first ACC game of the season. They are the only team in ACC without a conference game yet. They can still, in theory, go undefeated in ACC. Of course I am not saying they will but the point is that this is the ideal perfect fresh start situation for Miami. Similar to Notre Dame, this Hurricanes defense will give the Tar Heels offense some trouble. As for the UNC defense, it is atrocious and will not be able to stop Miami. The Heels just dominated Virginia Tech but the Hokies are a very bad football team this season. Prior to that, UNC had allowed 40 points per game this season! The Hurricanes open up their ACC season with a big win here as the situation, the home field, and the much better defense all add up to a huge win. 10* MIAMI -3.5 

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - Rutgers has lost 20 straight Big Ten home games and Nebraska is favored by only 3 points. There is your write-up. All kidding aside the fact is we certainly have history on our side here and I also like the fact that the Scarlet Knights have a big mess at the QB spot. I know they had some good defensive numbers before facing Ohio State last week and most certainly the Cornhuskers are nowhere close to the level of the Buckeyes. However, Rutgers played bad teams in the form of Boston College, Wagner, Temple and also an Iowa team known for its defense not its offense. The point is that the Scarlet Knights defense will be challenged a bit by a pretty solid Nebraska offense here. The other key is that the Huskers defense woke up after the firing of their defensive coordinator and they played very strong against Indiana last week. I know this is a road game on the east coast and it is hard to trust the Cornhuskers on the road but I feel strongly that last week's game against the Hoosiers is a sign of things to come. Also, how can anyone trust a Rutgers team that has lost 20 straight home games in conference action and that has a messed up quarterback situation with injuries, etc? I sure can not! Go Big Red! 10* NEBRASKA -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8

CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - This is a tough spot for Baylor in my opinion. They started the season at home, then went all the way to Utah to face BYU, then home again, then north Iowa to face Iowa State, and now back home again. They face a talented Oklahoma State team that is coming off a bye week. Not only that, they have revenge on their minds from last year's Big 12 Championship Game loss to Baylor. They actually won the yardage battle by about 100 yards in that one but were done in by turnovers and they failed to win despite being favored by nearly a TD. That said, how do they do as a road dog? The last 7 times they have not lost the money a single time! One push and 6 covers as an away puppy and given they have the scheduling edge and the revenge, love the Cowboys in this spot. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +2.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5

CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers -16 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - Rarely ever do I lay big points but this is one I will make a rare exception on. Even if Purdue lets up late in this game I still have them winning this game by at least 3 touchdowns. The Boilersmakers do have a pair of Big Ten road games on deck but they are off a road loss at Syracuse and are angry after letting that game slip away. Purdue, after today, has only one home game between now and November. I don't see them holding back here. They will run up the score in this one. This team throws the ball a lot and they are in need of a big win. Remember they lost a tough tight one at home to Penn State in the waning minutes earlier this season. In between the tough tight late-game losses to the Nittany Lions and the Orange, the Boilermakers crushed Indiana State 56-0. Of course Florida Atlantic is not an FCS program like the Sycamores are BUT that still does not change the fact that the Owls are not a great football team and they play in the weak SunBelt conference. This line is saying that Purdue would only be favored by 13 on a neutral field but I don't buy that given the situation. The Boilers have put up some big numbers on offense this season and FAU just does not have the firepower to keep up. Yes the Owls put up some big numbers against lesser competition but they were finally a dog last week and scored just 14 points against UCF. The other teams FAU has faced are a combined 3-7 and included an FCS school also. The Boilers, a Big Ten off a loss and having played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, absolutely pour it on in this one! 8* PURDUE -16

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6

Saturday CFB 8* Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 @ Syracuse Orange @ Noon ET - I was very impressed with the Boilermakers performance against Penn State in their season opener. Then they throttled an FCS school last week. Syracuse is getting a lot of love here because they beat Louisville by a big margin in week 1. However, the starts in that game show the final score was a bit of a phony final. Cardinals had a couple of a missed scoring opportunities. Also, the Orange then played a bad UConn team last week. Syracuse has beaten a Cardinals team that is now 11-16 since start of 2020 season and the Orange also beat a Connecticut team that is on an 11-54 run last 65 games. I am not sold on this Syracuse team just yet and the Orange are getting a little too much respect from the markets here. Yes, the dome in Syracuse is not an easy place for visiting teams to play but the Boilermakers play in the Big Ten. The Boilers are used to having to play in tough places and also against much tougher teams than this Orange team. O'Connell putting up big numbers so far for Boilermakers and has 6 TDs and 0 INTs too! Road team gets the win here! 8* PURDUE +1.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5

CFB Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels -7 @ Georgia State Panthers @ Noon ET - The Tar Heels are not getting much respect from the odds makers here because they gave up a bunch of late points at Appalachian State last week. Two comments to that. First off, lesson learned as UNC paid for getting too comfy with a huge lead and almost blew the game. Secondly, the Mountaineers have a very balanced attack as they can both run and throw very well. As for this Georgia State team that UNC will be facing this week, that is most certainly not the case. The Panthers were 7 for 29 throwing the ball against South Carolina last week. Yes Georgia State has a dangerous ground game but North Carolina can stack the box against the run and dare the Panthers to throw the ball. That being said, just can not see Georgia State being able to keep up here! The Tar Heels were already known last season for a dynamic offense and they certainly have not disappointed in that regard this season either. UNC is averaging 59.5 points per game this season and the Panthers will hang around for awhile in this one and are exciting to be hosting an ACC team. But the fact remains the Tar Heels offense is too much and they eventually pull away for the victory by much more than a TD in my opinion. 8* NORTH CAROLINA -7

Friday CFB 8* Louisville Cardinals +5.5 / 6 / 6.5 @ Central Florida Knights @ 7:30 ET - We are getting extra line value because Cards were bad at Syracuse last week. The Cardinals indeed did not fare well against the Orange at the Carrier Dome but this team will be better this season and I have a feeling they will surprise the Knights here. I am not saying they win outright (though that would not shock me) rather I am just saying this has high probability to be a highly competitive game so I love having the points here. UCF played an FCS school last week so let's not over-react to their big win last week. Also, Central Florida lost to Louisville last season and had trouble slowing them down in the eventual 42-35 loss. Just like the value here in fading a team that last season, based on yardage offensively, ranked in the middle of the pack and they are facing a Cards team that ranked in the top 25 last season on offense based on yardage production. Yes, last week the Cardinals were stopped on downs at the 2 yard line and threw an INT in the end zone and that had a lot to do with them finishing with just 7 points in a game in which they did total 334 yards. They will be better this week and they will score plenty against this UCF defense. 8* LOUISVILLE

CFB Sunday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -3.5 vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - The SEC sure does look strong, as per usual. LSU is the only team yet to play and every other team won their games and there was quite a bit of domination thrown around. Now, as for the ACC, Clemson will meet Georgia Tech tomorrow but, other than that Florida State is the only team yet to play. However, 3 teams already lost games (granted a Louisville or Syracuse was inevitable) and the ACC (other than Clemson) just not on the same level overall as SEC teams overall. LSU is going to be much stronger under new head coach Brian Kelly and they are facing a solid ACC team here but still look at some of yesterday's results. NC State barely beat East Carolina, Louisville scored just 7 points, Boston College and Virginia Tech each lost their games. There is still a gap in levels between these two conferences and the Tigers are VERY hungry and rejuvenated with the Kelly regime now here. LSU is off a disappointing campaign so we are getting line value here. I look for the Tigers to be back with early momentum from the coaching change! The Seminoles also disappointed last season and a win over an FCS school in Week 0 might help confidence but this is not Duquesne they are facing this week! Mike Norvell, HC of FSU, has struggled in his tenure here so far. Keep in mind, HC Kelly was 34-6 with Cincinnati and then went 92-39 with Notre Dame. Florida State, ATS, does not have a good track record in recent games with teams from the Power 5 conferences. 10* LSU -3.5

CFB Saturday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish +16 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Yes the Irish have a new head coach but is not like he is new to the program. He was the defensive coordinator last season and helped transform that unit into a very strong defense. Of course Ohio State is annually one of the best programs in the country but the Irish will play their hearts out for this head coach. The players have responded very well to him and we saw already what he was able to do with the defense last season. That solid D will be a key here in keeping Notre Dame in this game because of course the Ohio State offense is fantastic. The ND offense, despite some personnel losses, is still ultra-talented and I feel the Irish are not being given enough respect in this the game. The line opened up at under 2 TD's but has since risen above that key number. I am happy to grab the extra line value here as the Fighting Irish have been solid in recent road openers and will be up to the challenge here. I would not be surprised to see this game decided by a one score margin as the Irish come in hungry and extremely motivated and are talented enough to keep this game interesting! 8* NOTRE DAME +16

CFB Saturday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Razorbacks are an SEC team that lost to Alabama by just 7 points last season while Cincinnati got rolled by the Crimson Tide by 21 in the playoffs. The Bearcats also lost 8 players to the NFL draft so that is a lot of talent now gone from the roster. Arkansas also lost some starters but definitely have the experience edge here plus they have a powerful ground attack that will give the Cats defense some trouble here. This Cincinnati team just not going to be as strong as they were...not even close. The Hogs wear down the Bearcats as this game goes along and get the home win by a double digit margin. 8* ARKANSAS -6.5

Thursday CFB 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - So the Lions finished 7-6 last season and got hammered in their bowl game loss to the Razorbacks by a two-TD margin. The Boilermakers went 9-4 last year plus beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Purdue also is at home for this game. The Boilers also return more starters than PSU. Also, though Clifford is a very solid veteran QB for the Nittany Lions, Boilermakers QB O'Connell is probably the 2nd best QB in the conference behind Ohio State's Stroud. So all that said you have Penn State FAVORED by 3.5 points here. You think the odds makers do NOT know what they are doing? The Lions are favored here for a reason DESPITE all the above and a big key is because the Boilers offense lost their top two receivers from last season as one of them was ruled ineligible due to academics while the other one, Bell, is now a Cleveland Brown in the NFL! As for Penn State, no such problems. Not only do they bring back RB Lee, they also have WR Washington back plus they brought in a transfer from Western Kentucky (Tinsley) who had phenomenal numbers for the Hilltoppers last season. PSU has the better defense in this match-up and I know there are some questions about the offensive line for the Lions but that is an area they have filled in nicely despite departures from last season. O'Connell the better QB but Clifford is very solid and led PSU to a 5-0 start last year before he got hurt against Iowa. This Lions team is on a mission this year and they play in the tough east and rank behind only Ohio State and Michigan whereas Boilers play in the weaker West and I would rank them about 4th in Big Ten West. Roll with the road favorite here as they win by at least 7 and, more likely, double digits. 10* PENN STATE -3.5

CFB Situational Slaughter Tuesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - The Wildcats scored a COMBINED total of just 27 points in their last two games of the season and that included one against a Longhorns team that had a bad season. The Tigers scored 27 points in EACH of their last two games of the season and that included an outright upset win over a solid Texas A & M team which made sure LSU got their 6th win and is the reason they are playing in a bowl game. I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. Kansas State has gone from being a -2.5 favorite to now being favored at a full -7 as of game day. Yes there are reasons for the line move but long-time followers know I love to fade line moves and grab the value on the other side. Certainly the Cats played a respectable schedule as they play in the Big 12 but the Tigers and the SEC schedule was even tougher. Too much value to pass up on with the big points being offered here. 10* LSU +7

CFB Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense in this match-up. Also, could Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon be impacted by the fact he has missed some recent game action with a hamstring injury? I believe the answer to that will prove to be yes. Keep in mind, the Rebels allowed an average of only 18 points per game over their last 4 games. The Bears are off a tight 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but did allow 24 or more points in 6 of 9 games heading into that one. Also, in their win over the Cowboys they actually were outgained by nearly 100 yards but were the beneficiary of 4 Oklahoma State interceptions in that game. That is not happening again here as Mississippi QB Matt Corral threw only 4 all year and plus threw for 20 touchdowns. Also, the Rebels have an excellent ground attack so they have a balanced offense and a tremendously solid defense! The Bears are in trouble here and are over-rated in my opinion and the SEC foe how had only 2 losses this season will get it done. One of their only two losses was to mighty Alabama and the other one was to a very solid Auburn team that had almost beaten the Crimson Tide this season. 10* OLE MISS -1

CFB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 9* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - This is a contrarian play here. The common viewpoint on this game is that Ohio State is disappointed to be here. Lets not forget this is the Rose Bowl! Yes the Buckeyes were playing for the national championship last year and this year they will not be. However, this is an Ohio State team that is angry after losing badly at Michigan to finish their regular season off. The Buckeyes want to erase the bitter taste of defeat from their mouths here and they also want to get some redemption against a Pac-12 foe as their only other loss this season came at the hands of Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that the Utes manhandled twice this season. However, Ohio State is coming to play here and Utah does not have the explosive offense that the Buckeyes have. Look for that to be a key difference maker here and the favorite pulls away as this game goes on. They are far more motivated for this game than most realize. 9* OHIO STATE -3.5

CFB Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Wolverines are known for struggling in big games. I know Michigan finally came up big in their big game versus Ohio State and also won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa. However, that does not change the fact that the Wolverines have lost 4 straight bowl games both SU and ATS and now they face a team that might be the best team in the country. I know Georgia lost to Alabama but this Bulldogs team is really something else. They had allowed only 7 points per game in 12 straight wins before the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now we get a chance to take one of the best teams in the country off a loss and laying only about a TD and we can fade a team with a poor recent bowl history under Harbaugh...I'll take it! Lay the points for a big play here. The Bulldogs defense will be the difference in this one. The Wolverines allowed 23.6 in their 5 games away from home before the Big Ten Championship. The Bulldogs never allowed more than 17 points this season until the loss to Crimson Tide. Michigan allowed 17 points or more in all 5 of those games away from before beating Iowa. The Dawgs D rules the day here. 10* GEORGIA -7.5

CFB Contrarian Crusher Friday 9* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats are undefeated and yet nearly a two TD underdog against a Crimson Tide team that has one loss on the season. Big mistake by the odds makers, right? Hardly! In typical contrarian fashion, laying the big points in this one! Look for Alabama to crush Cincinnati here. The Tide played a tougher schedule, have the much better passing attack and the much better run defense. All signs pointing to a blowout here as the Bearcats finally find out what it is like to take a major step up in class in terms of the high level of opponent they are now facing. They finally got their wish of being a part of the national title discussion and having that chance to prove that a smaller program can get it done on the big stage. Unfortunately for Cincinnati though, this story does not have a good ending. 9* ALABAMA -13.5

Peach Bowl Blowout Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Panthers have the better numbers overall this season and I definitely like their edge on defense in this match-up in particular. Yes there are some opt-outs for this game but that is effecting both teams. I also know the Spartans have the better recent bowl history but feel we have value with the defensive-minded physical underdog in this match-up. The Panthers hold the edges in pass defense and I like their ground game too. Strong rushing team and with a solid defense and they are an underdog. This one has all the right ingredients that equate to value. Also, Pat Narduzzi is Pittsburgh's head coach and he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2007 to 2014. The Spartans are coached by Mel Tucker and this is the first ever bowl game he has coached in. Grab the points! 10* PITTSBURGH

CFB Bowl Insider Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:15 ET - The Sooners are the much better overall team in my opinion. Yes they have lost a couple games recently but they only trailed Baylor by 3 entering 4th quarter of the defeat that ended a 17-game winning streak for Oklahoma. Also, the Sooners other loss was by just 4 points to another strong team, Oklahoma State. That said, take a look now at the Ducks losses: lost to a Stanford team that has since lost 7 straight games and finished the season 3-9. Also, Oregon lost twice to Utah by a combined score of 76 to 17. The fact we can still get Oklahoma in the TD range for this game has me rating this play with my top play rating as I feel we have the much stronger team here at a bargain price and the Ducks have shown on 3 different occasions this season that they are fully capable of really disappointing in a game. They do it again here and the Sooners roll. 10* OKLAHOMA -6.5

CFB Earliest Blowout Monday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +7 vs Western Michigan @ 11 AM ET - In the regular season the situation here for Nevada would be devastating. But, in bowl time, when a team has extra time to prepare for a game things can be managed much better. Nevada has a number of opt outs for this game but nearly the entire defense is intact and it is made up of veteran players. On offense yes they are starting an inexperienced QB but the 6'9 signal-caller has had extra time to prep with this team and they are going against a MAC defense. The MAC has not performed well overall in these bowls thus far. So, what about the MWC? They are a perfect 4-0 and that includes beating a Pac-12 team (Ore St) and a team (UTSA) that nearly finished with a perfect record in the regular season. This line has gone from Nevada -3 or -4 to now the Wolf Pack being a +7 underdog. More times than not these line moves never work out like the betting masses think they will. A 10 point swing here? A MAC team favored by 7 over an MWC school? I know that Nevada also has an interim head coach for this one but he has this team believing and viewing this is as their "one game season" together. Practices have been spirited and you are going to see a spirited effort from the Wolf Pack come game time too. Look for the defense, mostly intact other than being without one top player, to absolutely be the dominant force in this game! 10* NEVADA +7

CFB Perfection Play Saturday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +6 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 2:30 ET - Value with the points here. Feel we are getting extra value in this line simply based on the fact that the Panthers went 8-4 ATS this season while the Cardinals went 4-8 ATS this season. There is really not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Ball State is getting about 6 points in this one. Yes, they come from the MAC and that conference has struggled in these bowls but Georgia State is from the Sun Belt Conference and that is certainly not a powerhouse conference. The Cards have had extra bowl prep time to prepare for a Panthers offense that is rather ground-heavy while I feel strongly that the Cardinals have the better passing attack and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. 10* BALL STATE +6

CFB Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Central Florida Knights +7 vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET - Too many points. Florida has not covered 6 straight games. Central Florida, in this match-up, is like the little brother facing the big brother, an SEC team from the same state. That said, the more motivated team to (no offense intended) to be playing in the Gasparilla Bowl rather than a bigger bowl closer to (or on) New Year's is going to the Knights. They will prove to be the team that wants this more. UCF has won 5 of 6 games SU and here they are getting a full 7 points. Florida's only 3-5 SU last 8 games and one of those wins was by just 3 points and the other 2 were against Samford and a bad Vanderbilt team. The Gators just have not shown us much this season and I expect more of the same in this bowl game. 10* UCF +7

CFB Daytime Dominator Tuesday Top Play 9* Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a MAC school facing a stronger MWC team here. Don't be fooled by their 6-6 record. Wyoming got better on offense as the season went on and the defense, as per usual, has been the consistent backbone for this Cowboys team. That will be the key again here as Kent State struggles to score and also eventually gets worn down by their opponents ground game. 9* WYOMING

CFB Daytime Dominator Monday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -8.5 vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 2:30 ET - Both these teams are 6-6 but Tulsa is the vastly superior team and played a much tougher schedule. Also, check out their performances against some quality teams and tell me if you think the Monarchs could have duplicated such efforts. Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State by just 5 and were leading that game in the 4th quarter. Also, the Golden Hurricane hung around with Ohio State until the Buckeyes finally pulled away convincingly over the final 5 minutes. Tulsa also nearly beat Cincinnati outright on the road. I can not imagine Old Dominion coming anywhere close to duplicating those efforts. Also, the Monarchs did not even play last season - covid - but the Golden Hurricane did and went 6-0 in their conference games but then lost their bowl game last season. Most of those players returned this season and their motivation level is very high to close this season differently! Last year they faced an SEC team in the bowls and this season they face a CUSA team. Huge difference and they should win this handily by a solid double digit margin. 10* TULSA -8.5

CFB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -6.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:30 ET - I know this UAB team is respectable for sure and I know the location of the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA also favors them. However, the line move on BYU from 8.5 to 6.5 has helped to raise this one to top play level for me. BYU started the season with 5 straight wins and ended the season with 5 straight wins. The two losses were in the middle of that were against Boise State and Baylor. No shame in losing to those two teams. Conversely, the Blazers were a 23.5 points dog versus Georgia and lost by 49 points. Also, UAB lost to Liberty by 24 and also got upset by Rice even though they were favored by 24 points in that one! Yes the Blazers should not have lost their game with UTSA and the Roadrunners did have a great season but the fact is UAB did lose it and they play in the CUSA which is certainly resulted in them playing a much weaker schedule than the 10-2 Cougars did! Look for Brigham Young to prove to be too much in this one. 10* BYU -6.5

CFB SEC Rout - 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - Getting this many points with a high-quality team like Alabama that is in a rare dog role and 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog means I am in! Yes Georgia is having an incredible season but this is now Alabama's Super Bowl for the season per se and I just don't see them being denied here. I am not saying the Tide will indeed win outright but they should keep this close enough to at least get the cash. Two fantastic defenses and the Bulldogs do rate an edge there but, statistically, the Crimson Tide rate a bigger edge on offense. Look for that to be a difference maker in this one in a game that is likely to go down to the wire and that means having the points is a huge edge for us as an outright upset would not surprise me here. Grab the the points for added betting value. 10* ALABAMA +6.5

CFB MWC Blowout - CFB 8* Utah State Aggies +6 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 3 ET - So many of the Aztecs wins are tight wins. San Diego State just does not have the offense to win games by huge margins and I feel the Aggies will keep this one close. Utah State has the better offense in this match-up and in games against common foes, the Aggies were more impressive statistically. Don't be surprised when, in this one, it translates to at least an ATS win and possibly even an outright upset win. Grab the points in this one. 8* UTAH STATE +6

CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks +3 vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - This is a chance at right back revenge after the Utes got the better of the Ducks two weeks ago in a game played at Utah. That game was at Utah. This one is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it is a neutral site game for the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon is 4-0 SU all time in the Pac-12 Championship while Utah is 0-2 SU all time in this game. All those games occurring since 2014 so this is not ancient history by any means. I look for the Ducks to keep that trend going as they will be much more relaxed in the rematch after playing with "playoff pressure" in the first meetings as they still had hopes, at that time, of making the CFP group of four. Look for the Ducks offense to be much better in this rematch and to do enough for the outright win but we'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* OREGON +3

CFB Bedlam Blowout - 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I know the Cowboys defense has been incredible this season but the Sooners offense can be special and that is particularly true in this rivalry game that always seems to bring out the best in Oklahoma. The Sooners have actually won each of the last 6 meetings and need a win here to make sure they make the Big 12 title game! Of course Oklahoma State has no shortage of motivation either but can the Cowboys not only win but also cover this spread? I do not think so and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least but seeing this line up to +4.5 means even more value with the underdog in this one. The Sooners just always seem to find a way to ruin everything for the Cowboys in this match-up. Keep in mind, Oklahoma State was a dog of an average of 10 points in the past two meetings but lost those games by an average margin of 23 points! The Sooners do it again as they have the better passing attack in this match-up and that will end up being the difference here. Oklahoma State has ended up over-valued in this game because they are on a miracle 9-0 ATS run. That run ends here! 10* OKLAHOMA +4.5

CFB Earliest Cash - 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Red Raiders off a home shutout loss to Oklahoma State. However, they have performed well off a loss this season and have not suffered back to back ATS losses all season. Texas Tech is known for playing the Bears tough and they have actually gone 8-1 ATS last 9 visits to Waco! Overall, it is a 5-2 ATS run for the Red Raiders in this series. Yes, Baylor is a rock solid team and has Big 12 Championship Game aspirations still alive. However, the Bears are 5-2 SU last 7 games in conference action but only 1 win by more than a 14 point margin. The Red Raiders bounce back off their shutout loss. Their defense will bounce back too after allowing 52 points at Oklahoma in most recent road game but allowing only 17 points per game in the two Big 12 road games before that. 8* TEXAS TECH +14.5

AAC Game of the Year - CFB 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates +14 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Pirates opened this season with a loss by 14 points. Since then, East Carolina has not had a loss by more than 7 points. Overall, the Pirates have won 7 of last 9 games SU and had covered 6 in a row before last week's 3-point SU win fell just short of the cover. East Carolina is catching the Bearcats off a huge 48-14 win over SMU last week. Cincinnati finally had that dominating win everyone was waiting for as their perfect season (11-0 SU) continues. However, the Bearcats entered that game on an 0-4 ATS run and I expect this road game against a confident Pirates team to be one of their toughest games of this season. This looks like a very tricky spot on the schedule to wrap up the regular season. 10* EAST CAROLINA +14

CFB Rivalry Dominator - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET - The Rebels defense has improved some over original expectations and actually allowing only 16.8 points per game last 3 games. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is averaging over 515 yards of offense per game and that includes 232 yards on the ground! Compare that to a Bulldogs offense that is averaging only 61 yards per game on the ground on the season! So you have an underdog that should dominate the ground game in this one and whose defense has played better in recent games. I like my chances with the points here as I also point back to the recent crazy game with the Aggies where the Rebels had about 400 yards of offense in the first half but less than 20 points to show for it. I know what this offense is capable of doing and, in a rivalry game that is the final game of the regular season, I look for Ole Miss to bring it. Yes this will be their 9th straight week with a game but the situation for Mississippi State is not much different as this is their 7th straight week with a game. Also, in a rivalry game with so much at stake for each team, neither will be flat or playing tired here. Give me the points with an underdog that can run all over the favorite. 10* OLE MISS +2.5

Pac-12 Game of the Year - 10* Top Play UTAH -3 - Love the set up here. All the pressure is on Oregon as they are trying to retain their top four positioning in the CFP rankings. Not only that the Ducks are on the road here and facing a Utah team hell bent on revenge after losing the 2019 Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon by double digits. Look for the Utes to take advantage of home field here and playing more pressure-free than the Ducks. Of course there is a reason that Utah is favored by 3 even though the Ducks are ranked much higher in the top 25 than they are. Not going to say the odds makers are setting a trap intentionally but will say this line is set this way with good reason. Note Ducks are on a 4-8 ATS run as a dog away from home and the Utes have covered 68% of their last 25 games in Pac-12 action. The Utes were done in by turnovers the last time these teams met but the first downs were nearly equal in that match-up. Ducks averaging 28 points per game their last 3 on the road. Utes averaging 41 points per game last 6 games. Look for the hosts and their brand of physical football to wear down Oregon as this game goes on and they will pull away in the latter stages of this one for a solid home victory. 10* UTAH -3

CFB Afternoon Annihilation - 8* SMU +10 - The Bearcats have failed to cover 4 straight games. Those games were against weaker competition too. Now Cincinnati has to step up and face a tougher foe. Certainly the undefeated Bearcats have the much better defense in this match-up but SMU has a very dangerous offense and their only two losses this season were each by single digits. Last year Cincinnati rolled the Mustangs at SMU but the final score of 42 to 13 hides the fact that the losing team actually had a 22 to 17 edge in first downs! I feel this Mustangs offense, especially with RB Bentley now back in the lineup and off a strong game, is absolutely going to give the Bearcats all they can handle here! Mustangs averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game this season. Cincinnati may finally see their unbeaten season come to an end but, if not, definitely expecting this one to be decided by only a single score because the SMU defense will be fired up about facing the undefeated Bearcats and should have one of their best games of the season. Note that the Mustangs have allowed more than 28 points only 3 times in 10 games this season. In those other 7 games they have allowed an average of 19.6 points per game. This one goes to the wire! 10* SMU +10

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls +1.5 vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Huskies off another tight win and that has been the key for them this season but their luck runs out here. I know Northern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the MAC West but I also know this is the home finale for Buffalo plus the Bulls need to win this game and their season finale next week to get to 6 wins to be bowl eligible. You also know the Bulls would love to play role of spoiler here against the Huskies. Buffalo does not want them clinching MAC West on their field! The Bulls averaged 36.4 ppg at home and allowing 28.2 ppg while Northern Illinois averaging 28.0 ppg and allowing 38.8 ppg on the road this season. 10* BUFFALO +1.5

MAC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - Why is Western Michigan favored by nearly a full TD over a team that shares identical records (overall and MAC) with them? Particularly one can ask that question when you consider that the Broncos are on the road for this one too! Well the fact is that Eastern Michigan is the much weaker team defensively. This includes the Eagles struggling against the run and the Broncos offense is the much better ground game in this match-up. Indeed there is a match-up issue here for Eastern Michigan and I look for Western Michigan to take full advantage! The Broncos seek revenge here for losing to the Eagles each of the last two seasons as well. Do not let the line fool you here. It is set this way with good reason and the road team has the edges on both sides of the ball in this one. As a result, look for a road rout here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN -5.5

Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #179 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +10.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:30 ET - This is a horrible scheduling spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones are off a huge home win last week versus Texas and have a massive game at undefeated Oklahoma on deck. That said, laying double digits at Lubbock, where the Red Raiders are known for being tough to play, is almost never a good idea. This will be the first home game for Texas Tech since they fired their head coach. This is also expected to be the first game for starting QB Tyler Shough (collarbone) since late September. Even if he did not play, which honestly would shock me if he did not, Donovan Smith was solid in the loss two weeks ago at Oklahoma when he replaced Henry Colombi who is now out for the Red Raiders due to illness. So you have the Cyclones in a bad scheduling situation and Texas Tech coming off a bye week and ready to win their first home game played since they have gone to an interim head coach. I know the Red Raiders are only 2-2 this season at home but one of those losses was by a single and, given the situation here, I absolutely expect this game to go down to the wire and feel we have fantastic line value with the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH

Earliest Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #149 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners -5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - The Sooners have won 23 of the last 26 meetings with the Bears. That said, I also look for Oklahoma to cover this rather small number as they continue the long-term domination in this series. Baylor has lost 2 of its last 5 games both SU and ATS and prior to last week's loss at TCU was fortunate in rallying from a big deficit to knock off Texas. That said, I feel the Bears are still a little over-valued here and the Sooners pull away as this one goes on to not only remain undefeated on the season but to win this game by an impressive double digit margin. Baylor offense won't be able to keep up as they have been held to 31 or less in 4 of last 6 games while Sooners have scored 52 or more in 3 of last 4 games. 8* OKLAHOMA

CFB Earliest Cash - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats -23 - Everyone is down on the Bearcats now because they have failed to cover 3 straight games as big favorites. You know what that means. This is the perfect time to back them. This South Florida team is not a good football team. They did get QB McClain back from injury last week but he threw 2 picks. Remember he also threw 2 picks in season opening loss to NC State by a count of 45-0. Last week the Bulls gave up 54 points to Houston. If they give up anywhere close to that point range here they are not covering this game because I look for an angry Bearcats defense to have their ears pinned back for this one as they look to make amends for last week's dismal effort against the Tulsa ground game. This is going to be a statement game for Cincy and they need style points for the CFP Playoff rankings and I look for them to finally get them this week. 10* CINCINNATI -23

ESPN Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #115 Thursday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels +7 @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7:30 ET - The Tar Heels are off a huge come back win but they sure as hell will not be flat here. Pittsburgh is at the top of the ACC Coastal Division which is where UNC also resides. The Panthers have just one ACC loss while the Heels sit at a disappointing 3-3. That said, I don't foresee the Tar Heels being denied here and love the value with the move on this one up to a +7. North Carolina has played the tougher schedule. That said, the Panthers have some statistical edges but some of this is also based on the teams they have faced. By the way, Pittsburgh is only 3-2 SU at home this season. Yes one of those wins was an impressive win over Clemson but the Tigers are really down this season. The Panthers other two home wins were against Massachusetts and New Hampshire! So the fact Pittsburgh lost outright at home to Miami and Western Michigan shows they can be beat here for sure. Panthers have moved into the top 25 rankings too which you can bet North Carolina is aware of as well. So in the lone game going Thursday in CFB this game takes center stage and the Tar Heels will have their ears pinned back going hard for the upset win on the road. They may fall just short of that but I am not doubting this potent UNC offense in terms of backdoor cover potential as well, especially getting a +7 now. The fact is an outright upset would not surprise me in the least as the tougher schedule they have faced is the hidden edge here that the markets may not be properly adjusting for. 10* NORTH CAROLINA +7

Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals -2.5 @ Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Cardinals are favored even though they are on the road and the Huskies have the better overall record and the better record in MAC games. What does that tell you? Exactly! In my opinion Ball State is indeed the better team and they have the edge at head coach. Keep in mind the Huskies have overachieved a bit this season and I believe last week's loss to Kent State is a sign of things to come. Was tough to see their star QB Lombardi get knocked out last week. I know he is expected back this week but NIU has other injury concerns too. The Cards are the healthier team heading into this one and they did make the mistake of looking past Akron last week and very nearly lost the game as a result. Ball State got caught looking ahead to this big showdown with the Huskies. But those kinds of things happen and what I like now in this match-up is having the better defense and the Cardinals and head coach Neu have beaten the Huskies and head coach Hammock in each of the latter's first two seasons in DeKalb. That trend continues here. 10* BALL STATE

Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami-Ohio Redhawks -7.5 vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The Redhawks disappointed me last week but I will come right back with them this week. Last week Miami-Ohio fell short versus Ohio University but they will now take advantage of a Buffalo team with a banged up quarterback and a questionable defense. The Bulls allowed 56 points last week and that was at home. Though they had a solid defensive effort in most recent road game that was against a very bad Akron team. Prior to that, Buffalo allowed 37 points per game in 3 prior road games. Yes the Redhawks D struggled last week but this was after allowing just 18 points per game 5 prior weeks. Also, they recently welcomed back their QB Brett Gabbert from injury and he threw for nearly 500 yards and for 5 touchdowns last week. 10* MIAMI-OHIO -7.5

SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - I know this is a revenge game for Tennessee but the line has gone from Kentucky -3 to now the underdog in this match-up is the Wildcats! In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Wildcats have the better defense in this match-up plus the Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Kentucky did lose last week at Mississippi State but were 6-1 ATS this season prior to that non-covering loss. Tennessee is off a bye last week but the Vols are off B2B ATS losses and also have lost 2 of 3 road games SU and ATS. Long-term Tennessee has dominated this series so, just like last season, the Wildcats are certainly looking for more payback like they got with the 34-7 win in 2020. Note that one of the Volunteers road losses was at Florida by 24 points and that is the same Gators team that UK beat by a TD as a TD underdog this season! If you look at the line on that game in fact that means the Cats would be about a 10 point dog against Florida on a neutral field while the Vols would be about a 16 point dog to the Gators on a neutral field based on the 19 that was posted at Florida. As you can see comparing the 16 to a 10 there is a 6 point variance between the Wildcats and Volunteers and plus the Cats are at home so one could argue the line should be a 9 here and yet the markets are so in love with Tennessee here that the Wildcats, after line movement, have become a dog. I'll take it! 10* KENTUCKY +1.5