NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - There are multiple ways to analyze this game, just like any game really of course. But I do feel my angle on this is the right one. This total is around a 43 as of early gameday morning and I feel strongly that it will prove to be far too low. I think Dallas could be a little flat defensively here. They played great in the divisional win at the Giants in Week 1. Then, in week 2, they played great in their home opener. Those were 2 very big, important match-ups. Now this week they have a non-divisional road game against a team projected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Do you really think the intensity level of the Cowboys defense is going to the be the same it was for a season opener against a division rival followed by a home opener? Me neither! At the same time however, the offense was not that good in week 1 as Prescott and everyone was rusty. They looked much better in week 2 and Prescott and company want to keep building on that here and they will take advantage of a very bad Cardinals defense here! As for the Arizona offense, they have been respectable early this season and, keep in mind, the Cowboys defense faced a Giants offense that has now been horrible in 2 of 3 games this season and a Jets offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers to injury before they ever arrived in Dallas for that week 2 match-up. The Cardinals had nearly 400 yards of offense last week and I feel certain they will move the ball well here at home against a bit of a disinterested Cowboys D that will come in underestimating this team. At the same time, this weak Cards D has no chance of stopping a Dallas offense that is hell-bent on showing improvement with Prescott and Co on a mission early this season to prove the doubters wrong. 4 straight meetings and 6 of the last 7 between these clubs have totaled at least 45 points and this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This total has been adjusted down to 38 and is just too low in my opinion. The Steelers got dominated last week but that was a solid 49ers defense they faced. Now they catch the Browns off a dominating divisional win. Yes, the Cleveland defense looked great last week but did you see the Bengals offense again yesterday at home against the Ravens? This Cincinnati team has issues on offense and so I expect the Steelers to do much better on offense at home against a Browns defense that is solid but a bit over-rated already early this season. Pittsburgh did move the ball last week against that strong 49ers team but they just couldn't get much going down the field. They will find more openings here against a Browns team that has given up at least 22 points in 21 of 27 road games (including post-season) under Stefanski. That includes an average of 32 points in 4 road games at Pittsburgh. The Browns defense will be tested here but part of the reason I faded the Steelers last week (and won with SF) is because I do not trust this Pittsburgh defense. Sure enough they gave up nearly 400 yards and the damage might have been worse were it not such a blowout in which the Niners were able to stop pushing much on offense. I look for Cleveland to move the ball well here too just like SF did and with this being more of a back and forth game, the Browns will not back down and with having such a bad history here in regular season games, I know Cleveland will keep pushing hard for the win. Game could go either way late in terms of the SU winner but, in terms of the total, this should get well into the 40s in a back and forth battle with good weather in PA for this one too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - The Bills will be ready here. The Jets beat them last season in the game here in early November. That one moved the Jets to 6-3 on the season. After that game, the Jets lost 7 of 8 the rest of the way including a loss at Buffalo. Yes the Jets are improved but all the hype about Aaron Rodgers will also put a target on their backs. The Bills come in fired up after another dismissal from the playoffs and you know that Josh Allen wants redemption here after he and his teammates could not get it done in the post-season game in January. So lets look closely at this one. The Jets are improving and are respectable but they wrapped up last season with 6 straight losses. This is still a New York team that has TOTALED only 13 wins the last 3 seasons. Conversely, this is a Buffalo team that has AVERAGED 13 wins the last 4 seasons! The Bills are consistent, well-coached, and I like Allen to have a bigger game than Rodgers here. With Buffalo on the road for this one we get a very reasonable line to work with here and I am willing to lay it! Currently this line, as of very early game day morning, is available in the 1.5 to 2 range on the spread or 120 to 130 range on the money line. This is a helluva strong value in my opinion. The Bills lost 3 games all of last season and by a TOTAL of only 8 points! That is an average of 2.7 points per defeat. The Jets lost 10 games all of last season and that was by an average of 9.6 points per defeat! If one team pulls away in this game for a dominant win, who do you think would when you consider numbers like this? As we all know, strange things can happen in a game because after all, it is a GAME. However, I am merely pointing out that I do not think enough has changed for the Bills OR for the Jets from last season to this season to warrant this line. Has Buffalo regressed that much? Have the Jets improved that much? I am willing to put both those hypotheses to the test here because I personally do not believe that. Remember the Bills lost just 3 regular season games last season. This was one of JUST three so they remember losing here. They also have been waiting to get back on the field ever since the disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals. This is going to be a hungry road team here that will be tenacious all night long. Lay it! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Look out! The Steelers are back! After all, they went 7-2 to close out last season to make sure Tomlin's long streak of having not had a losing season for the Steelers remained intact! Of course I am writing with sarcasm here because this Steelers team is not that strong ladies and gentlemen and this is a bargain line to have the much stronger team and essentially just ask them to win the game. The line is currently a -2 as of early gameday morning and the 49ers are coming off a fantastic season. They are the better team defensively, stronger at the all-important QB position, and are very well-coached. That is not to say Tomlin is not a good coach but the fact is San Francisco has the stronger roster and I really like what the Niners have been doing in recent seasons. As for Pittsburgh, now I come back to that 7-2 season-ending run. Two of the games were against the rival Ravens and they did manage a 1-1 split here. In the other 7 games however, the 6 wins the Steelers had came against teams that ALL had losing records when they faced them. Those 6 teams, at the time Pittsburgh met them, had a combined record of 30-44-1 and NONE of them had a winning record. All 6 of those teams ended up missing the playoffs and ALL 6 had DOUBLE DIGITS in losses at the end of the season. The point is that the Steelers season-ending run was not so impressive when you consider those factors and now they face a 49ers team that nearly went to the Super Bowl last season! Indeed, my money is on the Niners here at an absolute bargain price. This Steelers team is just nowhere near the team they use to be and last season was the 3rd time in 5 years that they have missed the post-season. 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-)

Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles Money Line -120 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The Eagles are hearing all the critics for sure and will play this game with a chip on their shoulder and with a little extra fire burning as well. The word on the street is that Sirianni has no chance coaching against Reid in this one. Additionally, the naysayers are saying Hurts has no chance to outduel Mahomes in this one. It is funny because these critics must not be watching the same games I have been watching. The Eagles are a high-quality team that is so strong in the trenches plus has a pair of wide receivers and a tight end that have combined for over 3,400 yards and 21 receiving touchdowns. Yet, per most "experts" out there, Hurts is only a running quarterback that can't beat you with his arm. Really I am not kidding you that some have this belief. Hurts is a gamer. This Eagles team can run on you like crazy too including Hurts of course but the fact is he can - and will - beat teams through the air. Yes the Chiefs are, of course, a high quality team. But the Eagles have a fantastic pass rush and Mahomes' ankle is unlikely to be 100 percent here. He could be having to run around more than he wants to back there as well as the Eagles pass rush is fantastic. Mahomes played in every game this season and the Chiefs lost 3 games in which Mahomes was under center. Conversely, the Eagles had only 1 of their 3 losses happen in a game Hurts played. The Eagles divisional foes were a combined 22-11 in non-divisional games. The Chiefs divisional foes were 15-18 in non-divisional games. The point is the NFC East was much tougher than the AFC West this season and, overall, I feel strongly the Eagles are a bit under-valued in this one especially considering Mahomes high ankle sprain. The line here as of Friday afternoon of Super Bowl weekend is mostly 1.5 everywhere. Considering we can get the money line as low as -120 in this one, the value is definitely with the money line in this situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs Money Line -120 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 6:30 ET - Just do not want to get burned here if the Chiefs win by just 1 point because the dominant line right now on this game is 1.5 but the money line is available as low as -120 on KC as of very early game day morning. Finally the offensive line issue of Cincinnati will finally become too much in this one. The Chiefs are too smart and too well coached to not take advantage of this. I know that the Bengals beat them in the regular season in Cincy and that they beat them last year in the OT thriller in the playoffs but if I am a Chiefs player I would be saying "enough is enough" here. I mean this has been very surprising to me how for Cincinnati has come but I just can not see them making the Super Bowl again this season. It is so hard to do. So many things have to fall into place. Like I said, this is the game where the offensive line issues for the Bengals finally become too much. Mahomes is feeling better than he thought he would with the high ankle sprain. Kelce will be fine with his back spasms back under control. The end result is a well-coached KC team is going to the Super Bowl as Mahomes will outduel Joe Burrow here. Enough is enough! The Chiefs were aware they were even a DOG in this match-up for a period of time even though they are at home for this. These guys feel a bit a disrespected and this could be Chiefs dominance here in my opinion. 10* KANSAS CITY -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs San Francicsco 49ers @ 3 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -2 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 2 rather than 2.5 or 3 here. Another option here is the money line available as low as -145 instead of laying juice in the -125 range on the spread anyway! No matter which you choose, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but then they showed what they can do when they are motivated as they destroyed the Giants last week. Yes the 49ers are better than the Giants but keep in mind that there is another edge here in that the Eagles entered the game against the Giants off a bye week. So Philly will be playing just the 2nd time in 3 weeks and it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the 49ers had a very tough game with Dallas last week but the Cowboys Dak Prescott gifted San Francisco the game on a silver platter by turning the ball over. It was pathetic to see that again but, oh well, this is the way of Dallas! Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are NOT the same as Prescott and the Cowboys that is for sure. Also, 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy will be facing a tough test in a hostile environment here. Keep in mind, the Eagles will take advantage of a Niners team playing just its third true road game since late October. Since the end of October they had a neutral site game versus Arizona and two road games against Seahawks and Raiders. Those two teams finished the season a combined 15-20 including post-season and that pales in comparison to facing the Eagles in hostile Philly as they are now 15-3 including post-season this season. Because of all the hype about Purdy, this line has been kept lower than it should be. Here we take advantage! Purdy has never faced an NFL situation like this ever and the games at Seattle and Las Vegas will be nothing like how this one will be for the rookie quarterback. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 6:30 ET - The Giants, including post-season, went 10-8-1 this season. What does that have to do with this bet? Quite a lot actually! I will explain. New York lost all 3 games to the Eagles and both games to the Cowboys this season. The NFC East was a very tough division this year. The Giants only lost 3 of their other 14 games against teams not named Dallas or Philadelphia. The 49ers, on the other hand, have padded their overall record thanks to playing in the NFC West. Including last week's win over the Seahawks in the Wild Card round, the Niners went 7-0 against divisional foes. That is how weak the division was this season while the NFC East is very likely to have a representative as 3 of the 4 NFC teams left entering this week were all from that division! This is no fluke. They were the strongest division in the league this season. Now Dallas is not getting enough respect here. Prescott is back and firing strong again, Purdy is still a rookie, and the Niners have faced a lot of weaker defenses since Purdy as been under center. This is going to be his first truly tough test. Prescott, on the other hand, has more of a "been there and done that" mentality. Especially after convincingly picking up a road playoff win (finally!), this Dallas team is rolling with confidence right now. I really like Purdy and wish him all the best in his NFL career but he is still a rookie and in last week's playoff game he faced a Seahawks defense that would finish the season, including that post-season game, allowing 30 ppg on the road for the season! Now in just his 2nd playoff start he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed 19 ppg in 9 road games (including post-season). I am expecting a highly intriguing Eagles/Cowboys NFC Championship next week but, as added insurance here, I am going to go ahead and grab the points. I feel if Niners find a way to win this it will be by the slimmest of margins. 10* DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 3 ET - Bengals have injury issues on the offensive line. These are big issues. People take notice when key star players are out for teams but many do not pay such close attention to injuries in the trenches and yet those are very important. The issues become particularly troublesome for a team when it becomes a cluster of injuries all to the same unit. In this case, Cincinnati is without both starting tackles and a starting guard. That means 60% of their offensive line is out for this game! The Bengals will struggle to stop the Bills defense from pressuring them all game long in this one. As a result, Cincinnati just can not keep up here because you know the Bills are going to get their points here at home. Buffalo has averaged 32 points per game in home games this season! Cincinnati has allowed an average of 24 ppg last 6 road games. Only one of those 6 games was against a team that ended the season with a wining record. That was Pittsburgh (ended year 9-8) and the Steelers hung 30 on the Bengals. This one turns into a home rout because I know the Bills defense is fully capable of bouncing back big at home after last week's tight win versus Miami. Buffalo entered last week's action having allowed 17 points per game in games played here in Orchard Park this season. 10* BUFFALO -5.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -7 or -7.5 vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -7 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 7 rather than 7.5 or 8 here. Either way, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but now they catch the Giants on a short week and traveling again. Plus the Eagles are off a bye week. I know Philly did not look good against New York two weeks ago. But it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the Giants had a very tough game with Minnesota last week and that was on Sunday. Now they have to play the Eagles on Saturday and they face them at Philly. The Eagles will take advantage of a Giants team playing a road game for the 4th time in 5 weeks. I know New York has amazing ATS numbers this season but that is also perhaps why they are a little over-valued here, at least in my opinion. New York has not won B2B games since mid-October! Prior to the upset win at Minnesota in the Wild Card round, the Giants had won only 3 of last 10 games! Also, their 6 losses in this stretch came by an average margin of nearly a dozen points per game! The Eagles led their regular season finale game 19-0 before Giants crawled back into it. Yes that game deserves an asterisk since NY played back-ups but what about the prior meeting? The Eagles won 48-22 and that game was at New York and Philly will have a much more robust game plan here than they did in the match-up two weeks ago. Hurts is now in better health and, of course, this game matters a whole lot more. Eagles pull away as this game goes on and they will not let the Giants back into this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA -7 or -7.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 or -9 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:30 ET - Not going to write a ton here. The Jaguars rallied from a 27 point deficit against some of the worst coaching in NFL history by the Chargers last week. The week before that Jacksonville beat a Titans team that was down to #3 choice at QB but also were outgained by more than 100 yards in that one. To put it mildly, the Jags are very fortunate to be here. Now they take on a rested Chiefs team that is one of the best in the NFL plus is at home. Also, KC beat Jacksonville by 10 points when these teams met two weeks ago but it could have been much more. Imagine how much KC would have won the game by were it not for a 3-0 turnover deficit! The Jaguars luck runs out here and the Chiefs hammer them by a double digit margin. 10* KANSAS CITY -8.5 or -9

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Much has been made of the Cowboys dismal effort at Washington last week and that it cost them a shot at the NFC East title and at home field edge had both the Niners and Eagles lost last week. However, both San Francisco and Philadelphia were huge favorites last week. Both SF and Philly were motivated to win and they did just that. The point is that the Cowboys went into last week's game sluggish because they knew the handwriting was on the wall. Dallas knew they were going to be on the road this week and they are both mentally as well as physically prepared for this game. The Cowboys actually should, and probably do, feel fortunate that they avoided two tougher teams in the Seahawks and Niners. The NFC West much tougher than the NFC South and Tampa Bay won their division despite having a losing record! I am not sold on the Bucs this season and I know they have beaten Dallas in the season opener each of the past two years. But this time it is different and we are getting value here with the Cowboys as a short road favorite. They are hands down the better team without a doubt. That said, we get line value because many know of a couple perfect angles here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am FADING these angles. The Cowboys have lost 8 straight playoff road games AND Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against Dallas. Both of those records will be history when this one goes into the books. Cowboys roll on the road. 10* DALLAS -2.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +8.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens did not even care about winning last week's game and rested starters and yet still outgained the Bengals 386 to 257 in that 11 point loss! A key reason they lost was two interceptions but I do expect Huntley to be back at QB for this one after he was fully involved in practice Friday. Of course Jackson is still out but this time it should be Huntley at QB rather than Brown. Also, even with resting some other starters last week the Ravens still significantly outgained the Bengals. I feel strongly that this Ravens defense, which seemed to get stronger and stronger as the season went along, is going to make a key difference in this game. That is not to say that the Bengals defense is not also solid. However, the key is that the Bengals are GIVING 8.5 points here unlike the Ravens who are GETTING 8.5 points here. So don't lay it, take it...grab those points as these division rivals are going to be in a fierce battle in this game in my strong opinion and I honestly would not be shocked at an outright upset. 10* BALTIMORE +8.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +3 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:40 ET - Vikings are 13-4. Minnesota went 8-1 in home games. They are hosting a Wild Card team that finished 3rd in their 4-team division. Also, the Giants went just 4-4 on the road and only 4-7-1 in games against NFC teams. Yet the line here is a 3 even though Vikings are at home. What does that tell you? Exactly! Do not let this number fool you. It looks so easy to take Minnesota here but the Giants are going to be taking on the Eagles next week because New York is going to win this game as the Vikings luck finally runs out. I am going to take the 3 points here (just in case) but I do fully expect an outright upset here as the Vikings have been playing with fire all season long and this is the time it burns them. The Giants lost to the Vikings on a 61-yard field goal in the prior meeting this season but Vikes 33-yard drive that set up the long field goal was preceded by them getting outgained by 125 yards on the day and that game was here in Minnesota too. The Giants have the better defense and I love the ground game with Saquon Barkley too. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were 3-14 last season. I know they have had a huge turnaround but this team was sitting at 4-8 this season before they won 5 straight to reach this game. So who did they face in the 5-game run? A Tennessee team that lost 7 straight to end the season and was a shell of itself when the Jaguars faced them. The Jags faced the Titans twice. They did get a tight OT win at Dallas but then the other 2 wins were over the Jets and Texans. The Jets finished the season falling apart and on a 6-game slide. The Texans were 3-13-1 this season. The point is that the Jaguars season-ending run is not as impressive when you take a closer look. I like the fact that the Chargers, prior to the meaningless loss at Denver in the regular season that did not matter to LA, had gone 5-2 SU last 7 road games. The Chargers know how to win on the road and you will see people lining up on the red hot Jaguars here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one and grabbing LA. The Chargers take advantage of a Jags team that was outgained significantly in a must-win game last week versus Titans. Tennessee was a wounded team at the end of the season and still deserved to win last week's game were it not for key turnovers that proved to be the difference. Jacksonville is lucky just to be here and had to fight hard last week to get here. They are in trouble against an LA team that was resting guys last week. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in San Francisco vs Seattle @ 4:35 ET - The total in the first meeting was set at 40.5 and landed on 34 points. The total in the second meeting this season was set at 43 and landed on 34 points. The point is that each game stayed under the total and now this is "playoff football" and yet the odds makers have stayed firm with, once AGAIN, a total in the low 40s here. You think someone knows something? Exactly! This one is going over the total! The Niners have won 10 straight games and scored an average of 30 points during this stretch! The Seahawks are off a tight low-scoring OT win over the Rams in season finale but had scored at least 23 points in 10 of their 14 games before that. Again, the key here is that this total is priced this way for a reason. Look for more points than most are expecting in this one. 10* OVER 42 in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Home field edge. Cold weather edge (Lions are a dome team). QB edge too with the experience of Rodgers over the young Goff who could struggle in hostile environment and cold conditions here. Another hidden factor here, and I like this play either way, is the strong possibility that the Lions will be eliminated from playoff race before this game even kicks off. Even if that indeed happens because Seahawks beat the Rams, one could correctly argue that the Lions will still be motivated to prevent a division rival from making the playoffs. However, no one can argue it will not be the same positive attitude for this game if Seattle wins in the action that will wrap up before this game even kicks off. That said, I like the Packers here and I like them no matter what happens in the earlier action. Keep in mind, the Pack have revenge here too because they lost at Detroit earlier this season despite having a huge yardage edge as Rodgers had a rare bad game against the Lions. Yes Detroit is off a great defensive effort last week but it was against a bad Bears offense. The week prior the Lions allowed nearly 600 yards of offense to the Panthers! The Lions have been hot but the Packers have too with 4 straight wins and GB has the better defense too. This one should get ugly in favor of the revenging home team with everything to play for in this one! 10* GREEN BAY -4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +14.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - The good news for San Francisco is if they win this game they still have a shot at the #1 seed in the post-season. The bad news? They also need Eagles to lose for that to happen. Philadelphia is creeping up toward being a 17 point favorite over the Giants. The Giants are resting a lot of starters including QB Daniel Jones and their starting QB will be Davis Webb. In other words, the Niners are not stupid and they realize the Eagles are highly unlikely to lose today as they also welcome back Jalen Hurts from injury and, again, New York is essentially tanking for that game as they are locked into playoff position. All that said, the 49ers know they are therefore essentially locked into playoff position too. Sure they will come out to win this game but this is in their psyche and certainly there is no extra motivation to win this game by any kind of massive margin. That said, now that this line has crept all the way up to 14.5 it is absolutely "go time" with the big underdog Cardinals here. David Blough played quite well at QB for the Cards last week. Also, sounds like this will be last game of career for future HOFer JJ Watt so you know the Arizona defense wants to go out strong here too. Just don't see the Niners winning this game by much of a margin. Note that SF has won 9 straight but of the last 8 wins, 4 of them were by 8 or less points. The Cardinals, since getting blown out in Week 1 of the season by KC, has only 1 loss last 16 games by more than 14 points and that was against the 49ers in Mexico City! Payback time here. Grab the generous points in this one! 10* ARIZONA +14.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - Great end of season spot for an over. Both teams eliminated from playoff contention but Saints trying to avoid a 10-loss season and Panthers badly want to win this for coach Wilks. Carolina QB Darnold through for over 340 yards and 3 TDs last week but looks to cut down on turnovers here. New Orleans QB Dalton is a veteran and facing a Panthers secondary dealing with a lot of injuries right now. Keep in mind, there is no playoff pressure here either so both teams want to win but also can play loose and relaxed. In a season finale that has variables like this (plus the fact no weather concerns since game in a dome) you have the perfect set-up for a high-scoring shootout! The Saints last 7 home games (including the one in London as designated host) they have scored at least 21 points in 6 of the games. Those 6 games have seen New Orleans average 27 points scored per game! The Panthers are averaging 26 points per game since Darnold took over at QB the last 5 games. Carolina, however, has also allowed an average of 24 points per game last 4 games. This total is closer to 40 than 50 but you can see why I am expecting the latter as a likely total for points scored and I will grab the excellent line value here in what should shape up as a shootout at the Caesars Superdome. 10* OVER 41.5 in New Orleans

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Titans have lost 6 straight games and the Jaguars have won 4 straight games. No need to even play this game, right? It's over before it even starts? The division title belongs to the Jags by default? Fortunately for the Titans none of that holds true. Tennessee gets their shot here and I love fading the masses which will give the underdogs no chance here. Keep in mind, this is the Jaguars we are talking about ladies and gentlemen. I know they are better than they use to be but they are no juggernauts and Joshua Dobbs actually played quite well at QB for the Titans last week. He certainly is a major upgrade over the struggling Malik Willis as Tennessee continues to battle without the injured Ryan Tannehill. The key here is that Dobbs can manage the game, Derek Henry can have a huge ground game for the Titans, and I like the Tennessee defense (3 turnovers last week) over the Jags defense. Keep in mind, the Titans only two bad defensive performances on the road this season were against two of the best teams (Bills and Eagles) in the entire league. In their other 6 road games, Jacksonville has allowed just 15.8 ppg in regulation time of those 6 games. Jaguars had rare big win over the Titans when these teams met last month. Note that the Jaguars have won their last two games over a 2-13-1 Texans team and a Jets team that had quit on the season. Certainly there is not quit in the Titans in a "win and you're in" game here. Prior to those two wins the Jags allowed 30 ppg their last 5 games. To put that in proper perspective, prior to allowing 27 points to Dallas last week, the Titans had allowed more than 22 points only TWO times in last 13 games! Give me the big points with a very hungry road dog! 10* TENNESSEE +6.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 35 in Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Both these teams, and particularly Baltimore, have been trending under. However, there is more than meets the eye here and sometimes you'll just end up with situations like this where it is a "value in the number" type of situation. That is what we have here! This total would normally be in the low 40s but is currently in the mid-30s because of the situation with each team right now. Jackson is out at QB for the Ravens and Pittsburgh is known for struggling quite often on offense but still has a respectable defense. That said though, look at the number on this total compared to some key numbers for each team this season and you'll see why this total is too low. Steelers playing their 9th road game of the season and 7 of the first 8 totaled at least 35 points! Ravens home games have trended under recently but their first 4 home games this season totaled an average of 50.5 ppg! Overall, Baltimore's last 4 games have totaled 30 or less points but this followed a stretch in which 9 of 10 prior games had totaled at least 35 points. This total is just too low and unseasonably mild and pleasant weather with light winds expected in Baltimore for this one as well. 10* OVER 35 in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - First off some line analysis will tell you why, from a contrarian standpoint, I absolutely love this play. The Packers are a 3-point home favorite here and, as we know, the average home team allotment for home field edge is 3 points. So this line is telling us these teams are equal. Yet when you look at the records, the Vikings are 12-3 and the Packers are 7-8 which is hardly equal of course! That said, many will be lining up on Minnesota to take advantage of this "mistake" here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Packers! The Vikings are a quality team for sure but they have been so fortunate in tight games this season too plus Green Bay has revenge here from losing at Minnesota earlier this season. Also, the Packers have covered 14 of 22 in divisional games and are on a solid 9-4 ATS run as a home favorite. The Vikings are on a 1-7 ATS run in divisional games in which they are a road dog. Look for the Pack to get their revenge and Minnesota's incredible string of luck finally runs out as they get hammered on the road here. 10* GREEN BAY -3

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still without QB Jalen Hurts but he has resumed practicing. That means he is closer to a return but the Eagles want to wait as long as they can to bring him back. After falling apart late in the loss at Dallas on Christmas Eve coupled with Minnesota continuing to win, this is a very important game for Philly. they do not want to go into the final game still needing a win to lock up the #1 seed. The Eagles would rather be resting guys. That being said, I do not see them being denied here at home in this one. Gander Minshew did throw for a lot of yardage last week and will cut down on the turnovers here. The Eagles will run all over the Saints here at home. Philly has covered 10 of last 11 as a home favorite. Keep in mind, New Orleans is on a 2-5 ATS run in games played away from home and also they did get roughed up here at Philly last season. More of the same in store here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +12.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys rallied for the win last week versus Eagles but the key in the game was 4 Philly turnovers and they were a bit banged up including missing starting QB Hurts yet Philadelphia still should have won the game. As for the Titans, they are also without their starting QB but I expect the back-up Willis to be better here after playing all of last week's game. That playing time and experience will serve him well here. Tennessee did have about the same yardage as Houston in the loss last week but they were done in by turnovers. So the set up here, in terms of value, is very nice as the Titans off a turnover-fueled loss and the Cowboys off a turnover-fueled win. Also, that was such a big win for Dallas last week over a division rival that is having an NFL-best season this year. That said, this is a flat spot for Dallas and the Cowboys have certainly been known for playing down to the level of competition. Prior to the fortunate win and cover over Philly, the Cowboys were mired in a 2-4 ATS stretch and 3 of the 4 ATS losses were to teams with a losing record. The current combined record of those teams is 16-28-1. Now Dallas takes on a 7-8 Tennessee team that has lost 5 straight so I can see the Cowboys again underestimating a team and playing flat here. Note that Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and 5 of their 8 losses by 5 or less points this season. 10* TENNESSEE +12.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +4 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Colts are turning to Nick Foles at QB. He is a veteran QB with a Super Bowl ring and Indy head coach Jeff Saturday is turning to him because he wants to do the best he can to give this Colts team the best chance to win the final 3 games of the season. That is the message he has conveyed to his team and the defense does not need any extra motivation either after the Colts blew a 33-0 lead last week in an embarrassing loss. This is the type of game where professional pride kicks in on the defensive side of the ball. As for the offense they get a "kick in the pants" with the move to Foles at QB. So there will be some extra sparks on both sides of the ball here and I like having the home dog at +4 in this one. In the Chargers last 10 games they have only ONE WIN by more than 3 points! I am going to challenge this bad LA defense to get the job done here and think it will be hard for the Chargers to pull away in this one. Possible upset and, if not, yet another tight LA win by 3 or less points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +4

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Getting 7.5 points here is just too much. Yes, the Cardinals will have McSorley at QB but he played his college football at Penn State and will not be fazed by any type of 'big game atmosphere' or because of facing the Bucs in this rare start for him with his teammates Murray and McCoy both out. Yes the Cardinals have had a disappointing campaign but this is their home finale and a chance to diminish the fading, but still active, playoff hopes of the Buccaneers in this one. That said, look for a strong home finale effort from Arizona here. Note that the Cardinals, when a home dog and facing a team outside of their division, have covered 15 of last 22 games. As for Tampa Bay, they have just one ATS cover in their last dozen games! I am not saying the Cards will win this game, though that would not shock me, but the fact it that TB has ZERO wins by more than 6 points in their last dozen games. Look for McSorley and the Cardinals to surprise here. 10* ARIZONA +7.5

NFL Saturday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders are 2-6 SU on the road this season yet this line is about a pick'em even though Steelers have won 4 of 6 games. Why is this line like this? Exactly! Look for Vegas to pull the upset just like they did in their last visit to Heinz Field. Raiders have won 4 of 5 games and the lone loss was by just 1 point. Las Vegas has kept their hopes alive for a playoff spot and confidence growing with each win. The 4 teams the Steelers have beat in their 4-2 run have a combined record of 19-36-1. None of those teams have a current record better than 5-9. Conversely, the recent teams the Raiders have beaten for their last 3 victories all have at least a .500 record on the season. This is honestly a bit of an ugly primetime match-up and the weather will be cold and windy. Many feel that will favor the Steelers but, again, this game was priced at nearly a pick'em by the odds makers for a reason. LV 2-6 SU on the road this season but I will take them. 8* LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +2 

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles lost here by 20 last year. Also, when they met in Philly in a meaningless late season game last year, the Eagles lost by 25 and Minshew was also at QB for that one. Minshew starting here because Hurts is out with an injury. The Eagles did beat the Cowboys 26-17 earlier this season. So who gets revenge here? Minshew in another shot against the Cowboys (met them late last season) and the Eagles getting revenge at Dallas for laying an egg here earlier in last year's season? Or are the Cowboys getting revenge for the loss at Philly earlier this season? My money is on the Eagles. Minshew actually played quite well in his couple starts last season. Philadelphia will have the edge in the trenches here and they continue to pile up impressive sack totals on defense and their offense has continued to be able to produce impressive running totals too. Now, because of Hurts out and Minshew in, a team with only 1 loss on the season is getting 4.5 points and there is just too much line value to pass up on here. The Eagles need this game. It locks up up everything for them as a win gives them the NFC East title plus the #1 seed for the entire post-season. You know they will go hard here. The Eagles are going all out for this game. Right now the Cowboys are questioning a lot of things. They gave up over 500 yards at Jacksonville last week and the confidence of Dallas is not nearly on the level of that of the Eagles! Philly gets revenge for what happened in their last visit to Dallas. 10* PHILADELPHIA +4.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - It will be cold in Kansas City but no precipitation expected and the winds are not strong enough to be expected to be a factor either. That said, the offenses are the key in this match-up of two teams with potent offensive production but question marks on the other side of the ball. Chiefs have number 1 passing offense in the league but rank in the bottom third of the league for pass defense. Seattle has a solid passing offense but ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league overall on the other side of the ball. Seahawks off a loss at San Francisco (strong D) in which their offense struggled but they entered that game averaging 29.5 ppg last 10 games! Seattle can, and will, score well here in this one. The Chiefs just piled up big yardage at Houston in a game that never should have had to have OT to decided it. Huge yardage edge for KC as they piled up over 500 yards! That said, there is good value with this game to go over the total when you consider the potency of these two offenses. This one should get well into the 50s. The Chiefs are averaging 30 ppg last 11 games. 10* OVER 49.5 in Kansas City

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets -2 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - Jets are off loss to Lions at home but are 5-0 / 100% ATS this season when off an ATS loss. Love the fact the weather will be ugly which lessens the Jaguars QB edge. Also, like the fact that Jacksonville off the huge upset win of the Cowboys in OT. Everything is aligned perfectly for New York to move to 6-0 ATS on the season when off an ATS loss. I know the Jets have lost 3 straight games SU overall but this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back and end that streak. They are favored here for a reason. 10* NEW YORK JETS -2

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 39 or 39.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - Yes it will be cold at Lambeau Field of course. However, light winds expected. Also, the snow is expected to hold off until late in the game or perhaps no snow at all. The Rams will again be without star defensive tackle Aaron Donald also. With this total dropping into the upper 30s we have excellent line value here. Packers off a bye week and QB Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder and will come out strong in this one. Green Bay getting a little healthier overall on the offensive side of the ball. Also, the Rams got a boost with a late game win courtesy of QB Mayfield last week. With the confidence of each offensive unit up here and a very low total to work with in this one, I sense an over is going to be the ultimate result in this one. Before the 17-16 win last week, Rams allowed at least 26 points in 4 straight games. Packers off a 28-19 win at Chicago before their bye week but allowed an average of 26.7 ppg their 10 prior games. With each team in that 26 point range you are talking about a game that would normally get into the 50s here and just because is cold weather for this one it does not mean the game fails to reach at least the 40s. I am taking advantage of the line value and going over the total here as we fade the line move. 10* OVER 39 or 39.5 in Green Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +4.5 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:20 ET - Value with the points here. I know Washington is off a bye week but they have covered ATS just 3 of last 14 when off a bye. I know the Giants just got clobbered last week but it was against the NFL best Eagles. That said, we are getting some line value here because the line move to 4.5 means the key numbers of 3 and 4 are now "win numbers" on this one with the underdog. The Giants are just not getting enough respect here. I know they have not won a game in a month but they will still be scrappy underdog here against an over-rated Commanders team. Washington has the same record as New York but has been playing better of late but the result is that they are over-valued here. The Giants were 9-3 ATS this season prior to getting hammered by Philadelphia last week. The Commanders, other than a shocking win over Philly, have seen all their wins come against teams with a losing record this season. The combined record of the other 6 team they beat is 23-54-2. So you can see why I have no hesitation in taking a 7-5-1 Giants team that just tied Washington two weeks ago in game that could not even be settled in OT. Outright upset would not surprise me at all here so I am happy to have the points in a game that certainly could be decided by 4 or less points. Look for the Giants ground game on offense to be the difference maker in this one. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 4:05 ET - The Raiders have scored an average of 24 points last 6 games. Las Vegas has allowed 24 points on the season. The Patriots have allowed 23 points last 4 road games. New England has scored an average of 27.5 ppg last 4 road games. The over is 3-1 in Pats last 4 road games and the only under came up just short of going over by only 1 point. Considering that plus how dangerous this Raiders offense is (but lack of LV defense too) this game should be a high-scoring one that gets into the 50s. You know Raiders coach McDaniels - had been offensive coordinator of NE for 10 years - is going to want to show the Patriots and Bill Belichick what he is capable of orchestrating on offense. At the same time, Belichick wants to show what they can do without McDaniels calling the shots on offense. In other words, this is about two offensive minds looking to one-up the other and I expect plenty of points to result. Raiders have a solid overall offense but bad pass defense and New England will take advantage. 10* OVER 44.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Sunday 8* OVER 48.5 in Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - Bears defense has been horrible. Eagles defense could be looking ahead to showdown with Cowboys that is coming up on Saturday. Philadelphia offense should score just fine against this porous Chicago D. The Bears had a chance to rest up off the bye week and QB Fields should be even better now in terms of the injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He has had a chance to heal up. The Eagles have allowed 22.6 ppg last 5 games. The Bears have allowed 33.5 ppg last 6 games. It will be cold in Chicago but no precipitation expected and not too much wind either. Some breeze but not bad. That said, both offenses should be able to open things up here and I am expecting a lot of points in this one. Just can not see many defensive stops here. 8* OVER 48.5 in Chicago

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins +7 or +7.5 @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - Weather is the great equalizer in a game like this. Likely going to be a snowstorm in Buffalo during this game. The snow especially heavy during the game. So when you have a game where the teams can't fully operate their offenses as they want to would you rather be laying a full TD or getting a full TD? The fact is that anything can happen in wild weather games like this so I generally stay away when the games have a small spread. But when you have a spread of at least a TD in a game like this I love having the big dog. It is generally just hard for either team to create a lot of separation on the scoreboard when the weather is going to be nasty. Both teams have a pretty solid rush defense and I like the fact that the Bills are off a divisional revenge win over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are off B2B losses, including a 6 point loss last week at LA versus the Chargers. Buffalo is 8-3 last 11 games but other than a win by 14 points at New England and a 35-point win versus Pittsburgh, the other 9 games were decided by an average margin of just 5 points! In other words, week in and week out, the Bills are almost always involved in close games and with this game likely played in a snowstorm in Orchard Park, I just don't see the Bills being able to maximize the edge of having Josh Allen at QB. 10* MIAMI +7 or +7.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - 49ers off win and Seahawks off loss. Seattle lost at San Francisco way back in Week 2 this season. Revenge? Check! Situational edge with Seahawks off home loss and Niners on the road now but coming off home win last week? Check! Seattle has been on a strong run as a home dog and I like them in this primetime affair at home and catching 3.5 points. Of course SF has the better defense and yes Purdy played well last week at QB but he is bothered right now by a rib/oblique injury. If it becomes worse or is too bothersome for him, Josh Johnson would likely get the call here. Purdy has 0 pass attempts on the road this season and a road game at Seattle is not easy. As for Johnson, he has been a journeyman NFL quarterback for a reason and has more INTs than TDs in his career. 10* SEATTLE +3.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Just like the Chargers last night, I like a little ugly home dog action here. Arizona is an ugly 4-8 this season but they are coming off their bye week. Trend players will be happy to know the Cardinals are 12-5 ATS last 17 times they have been a home dog. Also, in non-conference battles, they are have covered 6 of last 8 games. They catch a Patriots team still liking its wounds from Thursday's loss to the Bills in last week's action. That was a key game for New England and dropped them to the bottom of the division with the loss sending them to a 6-6 record on the year. The Patriots could struggle to bounce back after that defeat. Keep in mind, the Pats had only 242 yards of offense in that one. I feel they will struggle to keep up here as the Cardinals offense can be very dangerous and now has more weapons back compared to earlier in the season when Hopkins missed practically the first half of the season. Also, Murray and others have had a chance to heal up thanks to the bye week. Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins both are back and on the field the same time with Kyler Murray now. Yes the Cards lost their first game this season in which they were all together two weeks ago but they will be even better now coming off the bye week. 10* ARIZONA +2

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are getting healthier as Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play in this game at QB plus weapons like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both expected to play as well. The key? None of the 3 are 100% here. The biggest key? Tagovailoa threw 2 picks last week and he is the one to worry about as the QB is going to try and outduel the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert here and I just do not see that happening! Herbert and the Chargers are undervalued here as a home dog catching 3.5 points now and I just do not trust Miami in this spot. The Dolphins are 3-3 SU on the road this season but none of the 3 SU wins was by more than 3 points and the 3 SU losses were all by double digit margins. The average margin of the 3 defeats was 17 points and there is nothing "average" about that. With this being said, we have great home dog value here as the Chargers are angry off a 27-20 loss to the Raiders and, prior to that, 5 of last 7 LA games were decided by 3 or less points! The Chargers have one of the top passing attacks in the league and I feel Tagovailoa's ankle is still an issue for the Dolphins QB and it will reflect again in his performance here. Keep in mind all 5 of his picks have come on the road this season. The Chargers defense is their area of concern but watch them step up at home in this key Sunday night battle and note that LA had allowed 24 points or less in 4 of last 6 games prior to giving up 27 last week. That is significant here because Dolphins allowing an average of 33 points per game in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers @ 4:25 ET - The Panthers will be able to attack a Seattle defense that ranks among the weakest in the league overall and also among the worst in the league against the run. Carolina coming out of their bye week and enjoyed success with Sam Darnold at QB against Denver before the bye. That is a respectable Broncos defense that the Panthers faced and they were able to establish their ground game and that allowed Darnold to have a solid game as a game manager too and he was solid overall. That said, success should come even much easier against a bad Seahawks defense. However, the key to the over here is the Seattle offense is very good. The Seahawks have been quite consistent overall on offense plus have averaged 29.4 points scored per game last 10 games. Other than allowing just 9 points in one of their games against Arizona, the Seahawks other 10 games since their season-opening win have seen them allow 27.9 points per game. You can see, given these numbers, why I am expecting this game to get into the 50s. 10* OVER 44.5 in Seattle

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still trying to hold off the Cowboys for the top spot in the division and the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC. They can not afford any letdowns and have continued, more often than not, to play like a well-oiled machine. They certainly will not overlook the division rival Giants. This is the first meeting between these long-time rivals this season and the key is the Eagles much better passing offense and much stronger pass defense. In comparison with the Giants, they are much stronger in both these areas. Also, the Eagles run defense has gotten healthier and added some reinforcements and the Giants could struggle to score here while the Philly offense continues to be one of the best around. As a result, Philly should roll to a big margin of victory here and I have no hesitation in laying the TD in this one. New York had some miracle wins and covers earlier this season and now their true colors are showing as they were beaten worse than the final score shows against the Cowboys and then that was followed by a disappointing tie at home versus the Commanders. Eagles will prove to be too much here! 8* PHILADELPHIA -7

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +6.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - The Rams only have one home game remaining after this match-up and it is hosting a Broncos team that, just like LA, currently sits with a 3-9 record and is going nowhere this season. That means this Thursday match-up in primetime is the Rams last significant home game of the season. Los Angeles can play spoiler and diminish the Raiders already-slim playoff hopes. That said, I absolutely expect the Rams to come to play in this one and the Raiders will struggle to win this game, let alone cover the big spread. Long-term trend followers will be happy to know that the Raiders have covered only 10 of last 32 in non-conference battles. Las Vegas is off a big win over rival Chargers last week and they have New England on deck. Yes the Patriots team that McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for under coach Belichick for about a decade! In other words, this spot is absolutely a sandwich spot for the Raiders as they now take on a team that has lost 6 straight games. They are traveling this week on short rest and off a divisional win and are in a lookahead spot with McDaniels former team waiting on deck. I am not saying the Rams win this outright but it certainly would not shock me. Look for this game to be decided by 3 or 4 points. LA continues to lose games but has been competitive and, after struggling in other primetime appearances and with their next one coming up next Monday on the road and being that will be their last one of the season, look for Rams to make most of this primetime game at home! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - The Saints are just 1-4 on the road this season. They have 8 losses on the season overall and all have been by at least 3 points. This line dropping to a solid 3 has given us great line value here given the above. Note that Tampa Bay is off an OT loss but this was preceded by B2B wins. Also, the Bucs 5 wins this season have all been by at least 3 points. Tampa has allowed 17 points or less in regulation time of each of their last 3 games. The Saints had allowed 20 points or more in 10 of 11 games this season before last week's ugly 13-0 loss. In fact the average points allowed in those 10 games was 26.7 and then look at what TB has done recently on defense and you can see why I like the Bucs at home here. 3 of the past 4 games the Saints top rusher has had 30 rushing yards or less and last week it was QB Andy Dalton with 21 yards! That is not good news as that means New Orleans likely to struggle to run the ball here and the Bucs have a very strong pass defense. Also, the Bucs have seen White run for 105 yards and 64 yards the past two weeks. Take advantage of the line move. 10* TAMPA BAY -3

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +10.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Colts have a bye week on deck and are off a loss. Cowboys off a big divisional win over Giants. Big difference in the situational dynamics here. Also, Indianapolis has covered 7 of last 10 as a road dog and have gone 8-1 ATS the last 9 times when they have a bye week on deck. The Cowboys are the better team for sure but this is a lot of points. I don't necessarily agree with the Indy coaching change but the Colts did win their first game against the Raiders and then gave the Eagles all they could handle before ending up with a poor effort against the Steelers. I look for Indianapolis to bounce right back here after the loss to Pittsburgh. Even though Colts are just 4-6 last 10 games only one of those losses was by a double digit margin. Also, Dallas has some big wins this season but, out of 11 games, only 5 have resulted in a Cowboys win by more than 8 points. If you look statistically at the Colts, there are very sound on defense. Dallas could struggle here on offense and you know Indy will be bringing a strong effort as they are off B2B losses plus have the bye week on deck. Cowboys have allowed 20 or more points in 4 of last 6 games. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +10.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:25 ET - Two of the weaker defenses in the NFL are matched up here. Then you look at the offense and both teams emphasize the passing attack. The Raiders are more balanced but the Chargers ground game struggles so they throw throw throw. Las Vegas was shut out in one game this season but they have averaged 26.5 points per game in the other 10 games. Los Angeles has averaged 25 points per game in their 6 road games this season. The first meeting totaled just 43 points but that was first game of the season and a lot has changed since then. The fact is that result merely helped to keep this posted total lower than it should be. Las Vegas has scored an average of 30 points last 3 home games. The Chargers offense getting stronger again too as they have recently gotten healthier and it is paying off in terms of production. B2B overs for LA and another on top here. The Raiders are 4-0 to the over this season in home games. That trend continues here. 10* OVER 49.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4 vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - A key part of the Titans offense is RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles run defense has struggled this season and, recently in particular, but they get key help this week! Jordan Davis was activated from injured reserve Saturday and is ready to go here. He is a key run-stuffing defensive tackle. The Titans are certainly a solid team but the Eagles are not 10-1 by accident. This is a damn good team and laying a very short number on their home field and every win is still key. Philly can not afford to overlook anyone as there is a tight divisional race still going plus the battle for the top spot in the NFC. Note that the Eagles have covered 9 of their last 10 as a home favorite. This line implies a line of practically a pick'em on a neutral field. But I just do not see it that way. The Eagles rate much better statistically on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Titans. 8* PHILADELPHIA -4

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Bills are 0-2 SU in divisional games this season and, as you would expect, those SU losses were also ATS losses. However, they entered this season on a 7-1 ATS run in divisional games. Buffalo knows they need to start taking care of business in action against divisional foes as the AFC East race is jam-packed right now. The final 3 home games the Bills have left are divisional games and this is their final divisional road game this season. After getting a tight win last week at Detroit, look for a much stronger effort here on the road for the Bills. Note that Buffalo is the must stronger offense in comparison with New England. Also, the Patriots are averaging just 13 points in divisional games this season and have been held to 14 points or less in 2 of last 3 home games. The Bills, on the other hand, have averaged 28 ppg this season and they also are much better in pass protection than the Patriots. At home and off a loss, New England is sure to give a valiant effort here but the Bills will pull away as this one goes along and they will cover the short number. 10* BUFFALO -3.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts Money Line -135 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - With the line choice of -2.5 or grabbing a money line as low as -135, I am going to recommend a rare money line play in a spread sport. The Colts are looking better since the coaching change and lets take a look at the two weeks of action since the move. Indianapolis is now the only team to hand Vegas a non-OT home loss this season and the Colts also just took the Eagles down the wire and very nearly had the huge upset win over a Philly team that is now 10-1 on the season! As for the Steelers, I just can not trust this team on the road. The upset the Bengals at Cincinnati in their season opener but were outgained by a huge margin in that game. Sure enough, in their road games since then, Pittsburgh is 0-4 and lost those 4 games by an average margin of 16.5 points per defeat. The Steelers are simply not a very good football team. The Colts have had issues this season too but a lot of it was turnovers. They have the much better defense in this match-up and their passing offense, though not great, also ranks better than Pittsburgh's. They should enjoy success here as the Steelers pass defense ranks among the worst in the NFL! I know that Watt is now back for Pittsburgh but since he returned, the Steelers faced a horrible Saints team and then gave up a ton of yardage to the Bengals last week. That was also the case in Week 1 when he was on the field for Pittsburgh and they still got scorched statistically by Cincy. Turnovers can be an issue of course but Colts have been working to minimize those and, unless they give this game away via the turnover route, I just do not seem them losing. No interceptions for QB Matt Ryan the past two weeks for Indy and the Steelers Kenny Pickett has thrown at least 1 INT in all 3 road starts and has thrown a total of 5 picks in those 3 games. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -135

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have not looked as strong the last couple weeks for sure and their run defense has been an issue though there is a chance of some improvement with recent signings there as they also wait to get healthier again on the D-line. However, even with that, think about how Green Bay has played for much of this season. The point is that we get line value here because the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. They are looking at this as the Eagles that lost outright to the Commanders for first loss of year and then barely (and fortunately) snuck by the Colts late in last week's game. That is why you are getting such a low line here. Think about this line for a second though. This number is basically saying that the Eagles, on a neutral field, would only be favored by about a field goal in this one. This is just not the case and I think we have great value here. The Eagles are so strong at home (generally speaking) and had covered 8 in a row as a home favorite before losing outright to Washington two weeks ago. That is what is on everyone's mind is how bad the Eagles were at home on MNF two weeks ago but you don't think the Philly players also want to make up for that here? The point is that they can (and should) do just that against a Packers team that, other than a miracle comeback OT win versus Dallas (but at home) 2 weeks ago, has really struggled. Green Bay has lost 5 of 6 games played outside of Wisconsin this season and their average margin of defeat in those is 8 points. This is not an average team they are facing here. This is the team with the best record in the NFL that also wants to make up for their poor performance on MNF at home two weeks ago. Yes the Eagles D has some issues but this offense is capable of fully clicking, especially at home, with the way Hurts has played at times this season. Before the tight win at Indy, 6 of last 7 Philly wins had been by 8 or more points. This one will too! Eagles run defense has been the story lately but they have added some pieces and it is the struggling Packers run defense that will be exposed in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Sunday 8* OVER 47.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - Two bad defenses statistically on the season. Seattle has been better than expected on offense this season. Raiders have decent passing numbers on the season. This should play out with plenty of points. Las Vegas with momentum off OT win at Denver and now face a much weaker defense. Seahawks off their bye week and ready to respond after a dismal effort on offense in their loss to Tampa Bay in Germany. Seattle had averaged scoring 32 ppg in the 6 games preceding that one. Raiders have one shutout loss this season but have averaged 25 ppg in their other 9 games. You can see why I am expecting this one to reach the 50s. 8* OVER 47.5 in Seattle

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:05 ET - Kyler Murray will be back under center for Cardinals in this one. Keep in mind WR DeAndre Hopkins missed much of the first part of the season and Murray now is back after missing a little. The connection between the two is special and Arizona will bounce back here on offense after a dismal showing versus 49ers in Mexico City. However, the Cardinals defense can not be trusted and the Chargers offense is quite healthy with only WR Mike Williams being out so they have strong weapons at the skill positions. Both teams can be "scary good" on offense but truly the defense of each team has rated as "scary bad" for much of this season. Cards have allowed 31 points or more in 4 of last 5 games. Chargers have a strong passing attack on offense but a poor overall defense and that is what you want from a road team when you are looking at an over. Considering this plus the situation of the home team, this one gets my highest ranking. 10* OVER 48 in Arizona

NFL Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans +1.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - Yes this is a playoff revenge situation but there is plenty of motivation for both sides of course. Tennessee certainly will play with a lot of emotion but the key here has more to do with just playing so well when Tannehill is healthy at QB for them plus the home field edge and another is a weather factor. It is going to be windy in Nashville today including gusty winds. The Bengals strength on offense is the passing game while for the Titans it is the ground game. Tennessee has an edge with weather like this as the running game will be even more important. Not only that, if you look at the defense of these two teams, Titans are one of the best in the league when it comes to run defense. Bengals have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league. So consider these factors plus playoff revenge plus home field edge and you can see why I like Tennessee here. I also like the fact the Titans are on an 8-0 ATS overall run plus have covered each of the last 5 times they have been a home dog. Look for that run to reach 9-0 as, even though Cincy has been playing well, this is a great spot for the home team. 8* TENNESSEE +1.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - Vikings scored just 3 points last week. Patriots held Jets to just 3 points and the only TD in the game was on a late New England punt return for TD to win it. So the result here this week is surely...over! Wait, what? Over after that? Yes that is how the NFL works. Everyone is now looking under after last week's results involving these two teams but watch what happens on the short week now for this Thanksgiving match-up. Note that Minnesota was 8-1 this season before that ugly loss and averaged 27.4 ppg in the 8 victories. Note that the Patriots are 3-1 last 4 road games and the only loss was in overtime and New England averaged 25.3 ppg in those 4 road games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get close to the 50 range given those numbers. Vikes have allowed at least 26 points in 3 of last 4 games. Minny had scored 28 points per game in the 7 games before the dismal effort versus Cowboys. Vikings have solid passing offense but weak pass defense. Nice recipe for an over here. 10* OVER 42 in Minnesota 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - That old adage about the wounded dog bites the hardest will hold up here. The Giants have injury issues to the offensive line and wide receiver. They are also coming off a home loss to the Lions in which they gave the game away because of 3 turnovers. New York is fired up to respond this week and facing a division rival should certainly help them. One little hidden angle that I feel could surprise here is that WR Kenny Golladay could be a positive factor. He played multiple seasons for Lions earlier in his career and is used to playing on Thanksgiving. He averaged over 100 yards receiving per game in the T-Day games from 2017 to 2019. After those 3 solid performances he missed the 2020 game and then went to the Giants. New York has a long history in the NFL but hardly ever has played on Thanksgiving. Watch Golladay and Darius Slayton have big games here. The Cowboys won the first meeting and NY wants revenge. Even if they don't get revenge I do expect them to at least get the cover. The Cowboys off the huge win over Vikings where they played a great game and everything went their way. It is hard to have games like that B2B and especially on a short week. That said, it takes nearly a perfect game to cover a double digit spread in the NFL and this is particularly true in a divisional game. Look for Saquon Barkley to bounce back with a strong ground game as he had a massive game the week before the poor game last week. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +10

NFL Thursday 8* OVER 54.5 in Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills @ 12:30 ET - Two of top offenses in league statistically. Yes, the Lions have been that strong on that side of the ball and the pass defense of the Bills has not been great this season. Couple that with both teams off a win and the fact Detroit is one of the worst overall defenses in the league and you have a set up for a high-scoring shootout here in my opinion. Buffalo has been more of an under team this season but finally the recent results starting to be commensurate with how they play and we have seen B2B overs involving Bills. This should make 3rd straight. Lions off B2B overs but most recent home game was an under. That followed 4 straight overs in first 4 home games for Detroit this season. More of the same on tap here! 8* OVER 54.5 in Detroit

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +8.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET (Mexico City) - I know that statistically the Cardinals are not a very good team. However, they still have a dangerous offense and could have Murray back at QB for this one. If not, McCoy will be under center again and it looks like DeAndre Hopkins will be available at WR again and he had 10 receptions for nearly 100 yards with McCoy at QB last week. Marquise Brown is probably not coming back at WR this week but they still have plenty of targets in the passing game with Hopkins and Rondale Moore. Note that Moore also had a big game last week. The Cardinals are off a win versus the Rams and have scored an average of 29 points last 4 games. The 49ers are just 2-2 last 4 games and averaging only 22.5 points during that stretch. San Francisco has the better defense in this match-up but are over-valued here against a Cardinals team with great backdoor potential here. I just don't see the Niners beating the Cards by more than a 1-score margin here. Yesterday only 4 of the 12 games were victories by more than an 8 point margin. This is not unusual as it so hard to win in this league let alone to win by a big margin. In a divisional match-up winning big is even tougher. There were 4 divisional games so far this week and all were decided by a one-score margin. Grab the points here. 10* ARIZONA +8.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 52 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The reason this total has crept up higher is because good news on the wide receiver front in terms of availability for both clubs. Look for this one to turn into a shootout. Beautiful southern California weather expected and light winds. Both Mahomes and Hebert will be lighting it up. Chargers expected to have Keenan Allen back for just his 3rd game of the season at WR and as noted above, other guys got promising news on the WR front for both the Chiefs and Chargers entering this one. I like when I have an over with two confident QB's fully capable of airing it out early and often. A big key here too is both teams protect the QB so well and don't allow many sacks. Also, the Chiefs pass defense is among the worst in the league. The Chiefs passing offense is the best the league. Chargers like to air it on offense when healthy and will attack KC early and often but also will not be able to stop Mahomes and Company in this one. Not only are Chiefs 3-1 to the over in road games this season, the 3 overs each totaled at least 65 points! The Chargers have allowed 37 points or more in 2 of last 3 home games but, on the other side of the ball, their offense getting a boost in the passing attack and this team can score plenty of points when healthier. Even in a not-fully healthy recent stretch they were averaging 25 points scored per game before getting shutout in the 2nd half of last week's loss at San Francisco. The LA offense gets right back on track here at home but can not stop the Kansas City attack either. 10* OVER 52 in Los Angeles Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers got back TJ Watt and they dominated the Saints last week. However, this is not the Saints. This is a Bengals team that is coming off their bye week, playing with revenge, has won 5 of 7 games and that also gets back a key defensive player this week. DJ Reader is expected back for Cincinnati and he is a key for their run defense. Bengals already are having a solid season even with him missing time and now if the Steelers struggle to run the ball, a lot of pressure is going to be on inexperienced Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. The rookie was sacked 6 times last week and with an angry Cincy team in town, things will not get any easier in this one for Pickett. The Steelers won the first meeting in Cincinnati in overtime but that was a turnover-fueled win as the Bengals had a massive yardage edge in that game. Also, a big reason Cincy is now so hot is because Joe Burrow is again playing like a star and then, as an added bonus, Joe Mixon was running great again in most recent game against Carolina. If the Bengals establish the run again here look out. The fact is that Cincinnati has won 5 of 7 thanks in part to scoring an average of 32.2 points per game in those 5 wins. As for the Steelers, they averaging only 14.6 ppg scored last 8 games since that OT win over Bengals to open the season and they have never scored more than 20 points in regulation time of any game this season. Pittsburgh just will not be able to keep up here and I expect a road rout to result. 10* CINCINNATI -3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Colts are now coached by Jeff Saturday instead of Frank Reich. Saturday had no head coaching experience other than the high school level and was an ESPN analyst prior to being hired by the Colts before the game at Las Vegas last week. I know they beat the Raiders but, just barely, and that is a Las Vegas team with a weak defense and that, with that defeat, is now 2-7 on the season. Now Indianapolis faces an team that is angry off its first loss of the season. So they go from facing a Raiders team that is now 2-7 to facing an Eagles team that was 8-0 heading into last week's action. This is going to be a huge test for the Colts and their very green head coach. I like Saturday. So this is nothing personal. He was a great player and seems like a great guy. I just think this is a virtually unheard of jump to a head coaching spot and even though he has delegated some things like play-calling, etc to others this is still a major undertaking. He survived, barely, against the Raiders in his first game on the sidelines but this is a different animal this week. The Eagles do have some injuries issues on both sides of the ball but they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and they will win this one in a road rout. The Colts 5 losses have been by an average margin of 13 points. 6 of last 7 Eagles wins by 8 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 41 in Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:15 ET - Yes it will be cold in Green Bay but not brutal. Temperatures just a little below freezing, little to no precipitation expected, and no significant winds expected. Both offenses can, and should be, fully operational here in terms of opening up the entire playbook. That said, the Titans have not been an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination this season but remember Tannehill missed some time too. In the last 5 games he has played, Tennessee has gone 5-0 and scored an average of 21 points per game. In his last 4 games Tannehill has 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He threw 2 touchdown passes in most recent start and the Packers Aaron Rodgers threw 3 touchdown passes in his most recent start. I expect to see more points here than most are expecting because the Green Bay offense will have some momentum again after rallying for the OT win versus Cowboys last week. The Packers offense has often struggled in true road games this season but if you look at their home games and their one neutral site game (UK), GB has scored at least 22 points in 4 of the 5 games. Given the above stats and the confidence Tannehill and Rodgers bring into this match-up, you can see why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. In those 5 non-road games I just mentioned, Rodgers has a TD-INT ratio of 10-1 this season! He loves playing at home and this team rallies off last week's win but the Titans have enough offense to keep up as well. That sends this one over the low posted total. 10* OVER 41 in Green Bay

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - I do not normally like to lay big lines but I feel we have a lot of line value here. I like the fact that the Eagles are off a non-covering win last Thursday at Houston against the Texans. This is helping to give us some line value here. I know the Texans are not a very good team but still that game was at Houston and the Eagles were favored by 14. If you look at the lines for next Sunday's games the Eagles are favored by about the same as the 10.5 here versus Washington even though they are at Indianapolis next week! So the point is that, at home and playing with extra rest, this is a value spot in a game the Eagles should win by at least two touchdowns! The Commanders have played two divisional games so far and lose them both by at least 15 points! Also, Washington allowed 30.5 ppg in their first two road games this season. I know they then beat the Bears in Chicago but they were very fortunate in that one as they were outstatted by nearly a 2 to 1 ratio 391 yards to 214 yards! Yes they beat the Colts on the road but that is truly the one "feather in the cap" the Commanders have in terms of a truly successful road effort this season. That said, the Eagles are not the Colts! Philly is undefeated and showing no signs of slowing down and they have not had B2B ATS losses this season! Look for a big home win and cover here as the Commanders just don't have the offense to keep up here and I am sure the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in a home game in which they are hosting a divisional foe. 10* PHILADELPHIA -10.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 or 45 in San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - McCaffrey, Mitchell, Samuel...the Niners are getting geared up on offense this week with all these weapons around Garoppolo. Look for San Francisco to have a big game against a rather weak Chargers defense this week. I know the Niners defense is a strength but the Chargers passing game is a strength too and they will be moving the ball well this week also. I know that LA is without some top receiving talent but last week was the first week without both Allen and Williams. They will now be better adjusted to that scenario this week and note that last week Bandy and Carter and Palmer plus RB Ekeler combined for 25 receptions last week. The Chargers will surprise many here as Herbert and company move the ball better than most will expect without Allen and Williams. The 49ers are actually 2-8 ATS last 10 times off a bye. Sometimes a defense loses some of its edge when off a bye week and lets not forget the Niners allowed an average of 36 points over their two games before holding the Rams to 14 points in that key divisional win. 49ers have averaged 24 points per game at home this season. Chargers have averaged 25 points per game last 5 games. This total has fallen from its opener due to the injury issues and this has opened up excellent line value for us. 10* OVER 44.5 or 45 in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +4 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Dallas is off their bye week. Prior to that, lets take a look at their last 5 games. 4 of the games were against teams that currently have a losing record. The combined record of those teams is now 12-22 on the season. The other game was against the Eagles and Dallas lost by double digits. The point is that Cowboys are over-rated here. This line is saying that Dallas would be a 7 point favorite on a neutral field. I am not buying that. Green Bay has been turnover prone and has had issues for sure. But note that this Packers team has had only 3 home games this season. They won 2 of the 3. The one they lost was after they came back from the UK. No, that is not an automatic excuse to lose a game but it is not a normal scheduling spot especially when you are not afforded a bye week after going to the UK. The fact is that Green Bay can, and will, respond here. Their loss to Detroit was turnover-driven. I feel that road loss to the Lions will prove to be rock bottom for the Pack. I know it is not easy to call a "bottom" for a team or a market (stocks for example) but the fact is I sense it strongly here. Green Bay is much better than they have shown this season and here is their chance at home to get back on track and make a statement against a Cowboys team they have beaten in 8 of last 9 meetings. The fact we are getting sizable points here to work with as an underdog is an added bonus. Keep in mind the Packers first 5 losses this season were to teams that currently have a combined 29-13 record. The loss to the Lions was the first shocker so to speak and I believe it will serve to be a wake-up call. Green Bay might be destined to battle for the final wild card spot now in the NFC post-season race. But the Packers are still very much alive in that race as the current spot-holder is only at .500 on the season. Pack get back on track here and Cowboys struggles in bigger games - they are known for disappointing in spots like this - continues here. 10* GREEN BAY +4

NFL Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am expecting Josh Allen to play here and, either way, Buffalo to roll at home. The only road game that the Vikings have had this season that is comparable to this is they played at Philly this season. They lost that game by 17 points. Buffalo is 6-2 this season and the Vikes now a surprising 7-1 but the Bills are most definitely the stronger team and we have line value here. Without a doubt this line would be above a TD if not for the Allen injury. As we have reached gameday now it looks more and more likely that he will go and the Bills are angry off a loss. Buffalo has won all 3 home games by a double digit margin this season. The average margin of victory in those games was 26 points! 8* BUFFALO -6.5

NFL Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 9:30 AM ET (Munich, Germany) - The Seahawks have played 5 games away from Seattle and allowed 31 ppg! The Bucs have played 4 games away from Tampa and have allowed 13.5 ppg! Fade the masses as the Hawks are the hot ATS team and TB has been cold ATS but the better defense and stronger passing attack on offense will key the victory here. Buccaneers D has been getting healthier again of late too. 8* TAMPA BAY -2.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - Could be some rainy plus possibly windy and ugly weather in Carolina tonight. The hurricane that moved into Florida is bringing rain up to the Charlotte region and it is expected to be here for the entirety of this game. Look for the ugliness to help the home dog Panthers as they have the better defense in this match-up. Yes they just got throttled at Cincinnati but they are 2-3 at home this season including 2-0 in divisional home games. Carolina won those two home games versus the Bucs and Saints by a combined score of 43 to 17. I look for them to step here at home again. As for the Falcons, they are just 1-3 on the road this season and have allowed 27.5 points per game on the road this year. There is a reason that Atlanta is such a small favorite here over a team that is 2-7 on the season! Don't let the line fool you. The home dog is the play here. 10* CAROLINA +2.5 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - Ravens off B2B wins but were on a 3-9 SU run dating back to last season prior to getting these consecutive wins. Also, even though they have extra rest since they had the Thursday night game last week, it is still not easy to go on the road again and win B2B road games. Since Dalton has taken over at QB for the Saints, they have averaged 30 points per game last 5 games. Ravens have averaged 22 points per game last 5 games. The Ravens do have a bye on deck but have covered just once the last seven times they have a bye week on deck. The Saints have the much better passing offense in this match-up plus the Ravens pass defense has been an issue this season as they rank as one of the worst. New Orleans defense builds off last week's strong performance. Also, Saints let a receiver go back to the practice squad which means they are now expecting more from some of the guys that had been banged up. Strong team effort gets the home win as confidence is building with Dalton under center for the Saints. 10* NEW ORLEANS +1.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - I know the Bucs might get a couple guys back in their secondary for this one but they may not be 100% and certainly may not play a ton of snaps if they even come back for this game. The fact is that the Rams and Bucs offense both struggle to run the ball. This game is going to be all about airing it out. Look for Brady to put on a show for TB at home in this one but I expect Stafford to finally have a bigger game as well. The Bucs defense has been been struggling and the Rams will take advantage downfield and WR Cupp is good to go for this one. Tampa is allowing 25 points per game last 5 games and those included match-ups with bad teams like Steelers and Panthers plus a Falcons team I am not so impressed with despite their surprising .500 record so far this season. Also, against the Ravens and Chiefs during this stretch, the Bucs allowed an average of 34 points per game. The Buccaneers have averaged scoring 25 points per game last 3 home games and are hungry to snap their losing skid here before heading to Germany to take on the Seahawks next week. The Rams managed just 14 points against a solid Niners defense last week but did score 24 in their prior game and I think facing a struggling Bucs defense is going to get LA going here. Los Angeles has not impressed this season on offense but they have faced a tough schedule too. They get it going again here in this one and TB will not take their foot off the gas in this one and that will force the Rams to have to throw as well. Low total considering the key factors here and decent weather expected for this one too. 10* OVER 42.5 in Tampa Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals -1.5 point spread or -125 money line vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - For those of you with access to the money line I would certainly grab that rather than risk getting burned on a 1 point win here. However, I do feel confident the Cardinals should get a comfortable win in this revenge game. Yes, the Seahawks are on a 3-game win streak which started in a win over Arizona. However, this Cards team's other 4 losses this season have come against Kansas City (Super Bowl contender again), LA Rams (won Super Bowl last season), Philadelphia (8-0 this season), and Minnesota (6-1 this season). I feel this Cards team is flying under the radar now, especially since DeAndre Hopkins is back. He is such a threat in the passing game and has been fantastic in his two games since returning. With QB Kyler Murray off a game in which a couple of his picks were the difference, despite putting up big numbers, I look for a huge game here at home for the Cards passing attack. WR Rondale Moore also off a huge game and Zack Ertz, TE, a threat in the passing attack as well. The Cards just so much stronger with Hopkins back in the mix and remember they beat the Saints here 42-34 in the only home game since he came back! I know the Seahawks have been winning some games but they are over-rated in my opinion and yet leading the division. The Cards are hungry to, and will, close the divisional gap with a dominating win here! 10* ARIZONA -1.5 spread or -125 money line

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings -3 @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - The Vikings are 6-1 this season. Their only loss was to Philadelphia. Yes, to the now 8-0 Eagles. The point is that Minnesota is winning every game they are supposed to win. However, because the Vikes are on a 2-4 ATS run, the betting markets are not exactly enamored with them. Yes the Commanders have won 3 straight games but they were severely outstatted by the Bears in the victory that started this win streak. They then beat a Packers team that is now on a 4-game losing streak and has been the most disappointing team in the NFL compared to expectations for the season. Then they beat a Colts team that has been another significant under-achiever this season. Truly, other than a solid game in a loss against the Titans (but they caught Tennessee in 2nd straight road game off key divisional win), the Commanders have not impressed this season. They have been blown out by the tough teams they faced (Cowboys and Eagles). Their other 5 games besides the 3 that I just mentioned were against teams with a combined record of 12-26-1 this season. So the Vikings at just -3 in this game basically just have to win the game for us to get the money. This is, like I said, a Minny team that has only one loss this season and it was to the still-undefeated Eagles. I really like Minnesota here because they just had a bye week two weeks ago. Washington still has not had a bye. They are playing for a 9th straight week. They have not played in the same city twice in consecutive weeks this season. It has been home/road/home/road, etc all season long. The Commanders need a bye. They are not getting it yet and I see the better team prevailing here and covering along the way. One final note of importance, the Commanders Super Bowl is next week. That's right, a chance to knock off the undefeated division rival Eagles. Set-ups don't get much better than this one in my opinion. Vikings all day! 10* MINNESOTA -3

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 46 in Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Look for the Eagles to simply do enough here to win and move on. They are on a short week. Yes it is Jalen Hurts homecoming and he would love to have a huge game here in his hometown. But does Philly really want to risk him too much in this one? I could see the Eagles going with a run-heavy and short quick passes to minimize injury risk for Hurts in this one. I mean Philly should be able to sleep-walk their way to another SU win here but they don't need a blowout win and the Texans just do not score much at all. Houston's offense is a mess and the Eagles defense has been playing with a lot of pride ever since they gave up 35 to the Lions at Detroit in week 1. Before their blowout win over the Steelers, the Eagles had averaged 24.6 ppg their 5 prior games. They are not piling up huge points every week. Their defense has been the real story though and each of their last road games were easy unders and Philly has allowed only 13.8 ppg their last 6 games. The Texans will struggle to score much here as they are averaging only 16.6 ppg on the season and now face the only undefeated team in the NFL. I look for a bit of an ugly grinder that plays out 24-10 in favor of the Eagles. Something along those lines. Maybe 27-13 or 28-14. Think this one stays in the 30s but at best, low 40s the way I see it. 10* UNDER 46 in Houston

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Waiting has paid off as we are starting to see +3.5 show up on this game for Cleveland and I love the home dog in this spot. Cincinnati, and deservedly so, is receiving high praise for their defense. But note that the Browns are off a great defensive effort at Baltimore and held the Ravens to just 254 yards but lost the game due to losing the turnover battle. Yes Cleveland is an ugly 2-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses have been by 3 or less points. Again, another reason I love the fact we can now get 3 plus the hook in this one with the Browns. As for the Bengals, they are 4-3 on the season but their wins are against teams that are a combined 17-15 on the season. They also have lost to a Pittsburgh team that is 2-6 this season. I am not saying that Cincinnati is not the better team in comparison with the Browns. I am just saying that this is a tough spot for them here in my opinion as Cleveland has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and gives them a lot of trouble. Also, the Browns back home off a tight road loss while Bengals on the road after a blowout road win. These set ups often work out well for the hosts and particularly when they are a home dog! The Browns have been just as solid as Bengals in terms of pass defense and they also are the much better rushing team on offense. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 or 47 in Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - Very nice weather expected, surprisingly, for upstate New York in late October. Both offenses will take advantage. I know the Packers have been struggling on offense but watch Aaron Rodgers and company redeem themselves on national TV tonight as Buffalo's defense underestimates and comes in overconfident off the bye week. At the same time though, this GB defense has struggled much more than expected and now faces the best offense in the league and Josh Allen and company, at home and in nice weather, are going to put on a show in this one! Bills have averaged 40 points scored per game in their two home games this season. The Packers allowing 25 points per game last 4 weeks and facing a MUCH TOUGHER test here. By the way, GB has scored more than 20 in 3 of last 4 games and the Bills have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of last 4 games. Lets say the Packers get their 21 points here and the oddsmakers are right about the double digit spread...that puts this one into the low 50s! The fact is I am expecting much more than that given the situation and the good weather and this one could push the 60 range! 10* OVER 46.5 or 47 in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans Pick or +1 @ Houston Texans @ 4:05 ET - The Titans Ryan Tannehill is out for this game. Malik Willis gets the start. I know he is an NFL rookie. I know he did not look good in preseason. But he started his college career at an SEC school, Auburn, and then went to Liberty so he could get playing time. He is a true dual-threat QB and in his two seasons at Liberty he threw for 47 touchdowns and ran for 27 touchdowns! He is not facing a great defense here. Also, unlike preseason, he is working with all the starting talent around him. This Titans team is first in the AFC South and this Texans teams is dead last in the division and one of the worst teams teams in the league. I think this is a classic case of value being created by an injury situation. Tennessee is the much better team and now is not even favored here and they have a strong ground game and will do damage on the ground here. The only team in the AFC with fewer losses than the Titans is the Bills. The Texans are tied with the Lions as the only teams in the NFL that have only 1 win on the season. There is simply a much bigger disparity between these teams than what this line is reflecting and we can take advantage of the added value. Houston's only win this season was against (now 2-5) Jacksonville. Tennessee has a game at Kansas City on deck so they know they need this game against the Texans. The Titans want to maintain their hold on the top spot of the division and next week's game at KC will be tough. Look for them to be fully focused here and everyone dialed in on offense to help Willis along and the result will be a surprisingly solid win here! 10* TENNESSEE Pick or +1

NFL Sunday 8* Chicago Bears +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys did beat Detroit 24-6 last week but they were down at the half and, with THREE minutes to go in the ENTIRE GAME, Dallas was up only 10-6. They scored 2 late touchdowns to make for a deceiving final score in their win over the Lions. As for the Bears beating the Patriots, Chicago had 24 first downs and the Pats had just 12. That was a dominating win and was at New England. I am not here to tell you that Chicago wins this game outright. I just feel that the Bears getting double digits is far too much. Dak Prescott is still coming back from a thumb injury. The Bears confidence is growing and remember they should have beaten Washington 2 weeks ago as they had a huge yardage edge in that game. We are getting value with a solid defensive team that also can get yardage on the ground because Fields is a very dangerous QB with his legs too. This can give a solid Cowboys D some issues and this game will be decided by just 1 score in my opinion. 8* CHICAGO +10

NFL Sunday 8* Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, UK - Getting 2.5 points with the Broncos is a great value here. They have the much better defense in this match-up. I know their offense has been bad but Denver's Russell Wilson took a week off to rest up and the Broncos have a bye on deck so he can go all out here. I have a feeling that Wilson is going to end up being the star of this game. Keep in mind, the Jaguars are on a 3-14 ATS run. I know Denver has been bad too but I trust their defense in this match-up and feel the Broncos offense is going to be better in this one because of the Wilson situation. They will be rejuvenated here and two of Bronco's recent losses in OT and they are catching a Jacksonville team that has lost 4 straight games by an average of 7 points apiece. 8* DENVER +2.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bucs have lost 4 of 5 games. Most concerning too is that their last 3 games have been against teams with a combined record of 7-14 this season. None of those teams have a winning record. Tampa Bay beat just one of them, Atlanta, but did not cover and TB enters this game on an 0-5 ATS run. In fact, 5 of Tampa's 6 games (since beating Dallas in season opener) have seen them face teams that currently have a losing record. The record of those 5 teams is now a combined 12-23. Consider that and now consider that the Buccaneers have lost 4 of 5 games! This team is just not the team it use to be. Keep in mind, former head coach Bruce Arians is now a senior football consultant for the Bucs. That is is not the same as being the guy patrolling the sidelines and calling the shots. That guy is Todd Bowles who should have stuck to just being a defensive coordinator (which he absolutely has excelled at). As an NFL head coach though, Bowles now has a combined record of 17-38 dating back to the 2016 season. John Harbaugh has a 47-25 record as head coach of the Ravens dating back to the 2018 season. Baltimore's defense was struggling earlier this season but they have started to turn the corner ever since a solid effort in the tight loss to the Bills. The Ravens offense is one of the better ones in the league in terms of points scored and is led by dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. With the Bucs offense a shell of its former self, I have no hesitation in grabbing the points for a strong play with the road dog in this one Thursday. 10* BALTIMORE +2

Monday NFL 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +9 @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - First off I like the fact the Bears have extra rest since they last played Thursday. Secondly I definitely like the fact that Chicago lost that game despite having a huge yardage edge of nearly a 2 to 1 ratio over the Commanders. Thirdly, and the biggest key here, is that even though New England is 3-3 this season one should take a look at their schedule! The Patriots are 3-3 but the 3 wins have come against team that are 5-15 on the season. Now, of course, one could argue that the Bears are also a bad team and I certainly understand that sentiment. However, I have a strong feeling that the Pats are entering this game overconfident off B2B wins and facing a 2-4 Bears team. New England will end up surprised that this Chicago defense is quite solid. The Bears have lost 3 straight games but all were by 8 or less points. Chicago has a high compete level and they have a solid rushing offense and a strong pass defense. Oftentimes teams like this make the best big road dogs! By the way, Chicago has lost the money ATS just once in last 8 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots can improve to 4-3 with a win here and that would put them just behind the 5-2 Jets and 5-1 Bills in the AFC East but those 5-2 Jets are on deck for the Pats too. Could New England get caught looking ahead here? I do feel that New England will circle the wagons in time to win this game Monday but I don't see them covering this inflated spread. Bears will be in this game all the way and have a legitimate shot at the outright upset. 10* CHICAGO +9

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins -7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Steelers just beat the Bucs but they were outgained in that game. The Dolphins lost to the Vikings but actually outgained Minnesota by over 200 yards in that game and had twice as many first downs. Miami was done in by turnovers in that one. The Dolphins get back Tagovailoa for this one at QB and still have Bridgewater and Thompson available to back him up. The Steelers welcome back Pickett at QB this week but he has struggled so far this season with a poor TD-INT ratio. Also, his back-up is Trubisky and he is not known for striking fear into opposing defenses. The Steelers are still in rebuild mode here and flukes like the upset win over TB will happen from time to time but Pittsburgh generally a different team on the road. Couple that with the fact that the Dolphins are starting a stretch in which their 5 opponents - including Steelers - have a combined record of 8-19-1, you know Miami realizes they can still salvage their season. They started 3-0 then went 0-3 and now they get back on track in a big way to improve to 4-3. Look for them to be revitalized with the return of their starting QB and playing at home in SNF. Miami has lost the money just 3 times the last 15 times they have been a home favorite. Dolphins roll by 7 or more in this one! 10* MIAMI -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 49 in San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - Both teams off unders last week but that has set us up for great value here. The Niners had about 300 yards of passing offense at Atlanta but were done in by 3 turnovers. The Chiefs and Bills combined for over 800 yards of offense in their game but key missed early game opportunities prevented it from going over the total. This game makes up for all of the above. The Niners have great stats on defense this season but it could have a huge asterisk by it...really! San Francisco has faced horrible offenses in Chicago (and in rainstorm) and in league-worst Carolina. Also, the stumbling Broncos and and a Rams team when Stafford was struggling badly and the entire LA offense was a mess. The other two teams they faced were Atlanta (who scores well but is statistically poor on offense) and Seattle. Give a little credit for slowing down the Seahawks but you can see why I am not so impressed with the Niners defensive numbers when you consider 5 of the 6 opponents they have faced. Now they face a Chiefs offense that has been annually one of the best in the league for years now and it has continued this season. The problem for KC is their defense is very bad against the pass and I look for Jimmy G and the Niners (who add some key personnel this week) to have plenty of success at home against a bad Chiefs defense. Kansas City was averaging 32 points per game before last week's loss but also is allowing 25 points per game on the season. Look for this one to get well into the 50s and 60s would not shock me. The Chiefs already have been involved in 3 games that totaled 59 points or more! 10* OVER 49 in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Colts seek revenge for the first meeting and actually outgained the Titans by over 120 yards in that one and held Tennessee to just 243 yards in the upset loss due to turnovers. With Matt Ryan off a huge game in which he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, I love this spot with the Colts! Ryan had a bad game recently in the OT win at Denver two weeks ago but Indy is actually 3-1 the last 4 games and in his 3 games besides the Broncos game he has averaged 322 yards passing and thrown for 7 TDs against just 1 INT. I think Indy is quietly starting to turn their season around and, statistically they are much better than the Titans on both sides of the ball but Tennessee has been more fortunate because the Colts had some turnover issues this season. So we get some built-in line value here and I will not pass it up. Indy has the much better passing attack and much better pass defense and that will key the road win here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - The Saints will get Olave back at WR for this one. That is key as he had 9 catches for 147 yards in his most recent road game. Overall, in his last 4 games (before missing last week) he caught 22 passes and averaged 87 receiving yards per game. He had a TD in each of the last two games. Cardinals pass defense is not too good and the Saints do have respectable numbers on offense this season. New Orleans also has averaged scoring 30 points per game last 3 games but also has allowed an average of 30 points per game last 3 games. Arizona scored only 9 points last week but did have over 300 yards of offense. Look for Cardinals to bounce back here against a Saints defense that has struggled at times. I know Arizona lost WR Brown to injury they get Hopkins back this week. He is NOT coming back from injury, he is coming from a suspension. He is healthy, his batteries are fully charged, and this guy is a playmaker. He can't wait to get going in this game and will help bring out the best in QB Murray in this one as well. Saints have gone over the total in 3 straight games and the Cards are allowing 28 points per game at home this season. We get a low total because overall the NFL has trended to unders this season and it seems like in primetime that trend has been magnified too BUT these types of things have a way of reversing at some point and it tends to be when the markets start to have to over-adjust. That looks like the case here with this very low total. We'll take advantage! 10* OVER 43.5 in Arizona 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - Chargers have been strong offensively but have some concerns on defense this season. The Broncos have not performed well on offense but I am expecting a big bounce back game from Russell Wilson this week after he had some treatments on his throwing shoulder this week. The problem is more in the lat below the shoulder than the shoulder itself and that is good news. It also is not a severe problem. Again, I expect success this week for a Broncos team that has moved the ball well at times but then failed in the red zone. The Chargers defense has not been stellar and Denver takes advantage. Keep in mind this is just the 3rd road game this season for Broncos. The last one totaled 55 points. The one before that was low-scoring but Denver put up a ton of yardage in that one at Seattle but did not have the points to show for it due to red zone failures. I feel all of this is helping to give us some market perception value in this one because also the Broncos have had some injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball and this Chargers offense is really heating up. Perfect weather in LA this evening too. The Chargers had a bad home game versus Jacksonville last time here so they will be ready to make up for that debacle and LA has scored an average of 28 points per game in their other 4 games. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 29 points last 4 games! You can see why I am expecting this game to surprise people and get into the 50s for total points! 10* OVER 45.5 in LA Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys are expected to again be without QB Dak Prescott. Even though QB Cooper Rush has been a solid game manager for Dallas so far this season, the Cowboys still have an offense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. They are fortunate to be 4-1 this season. The Eagles are NOT fortunate to be 5-0 this season. They have dominated for long stretches in games and are fully deserving of their undefeated record. They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league and a solid defense that ranks well against both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are lacking a bit in terms of run defense and the Eagles had the #1 rushing attack last season and are again near the top of the league so far this season. Philly has hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this season but, until then, this is their Super Bowl. Indeed the Eagles, and the entire city of Philadelphia hates the Cowboys more than any other team in the NFL. They want revenge here for the fact they have lost 3 straight to Dallas by an average margin of 22 points per game. Keep in mind, last year's ugly loss to the Cowboys in Philly was after the Eagles clinched playoffs so they weren't playing for anything. This time they are playing for plenty and Philadelphia is 6-0 / 100% ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Dallas beat the Rams last week but were very fortunate as they were outgained by 100 yards. Now they go from the west coast to the east coast for this one and the Philly fans will be rabid for this one. What a time in Philly for the fans. Phillies going to NLCS, Flyers have started season 2-0 under new head coach, Sixers again considered an NBA title contender coming into season, and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. I only mention that because the passion and energy of the crowd tonight will perhaps be about the highest level you will have ever seen in a regular season NFL game in Philadelphia. I am 100% serious about that and you have the hated Cowboys in town and the Eagles currently firing on all cylinders and the likely QB match-up is early season MVP candidate Jalen Hurts over Cowboys QB Cooper Rush. I am not disrespecting Rush but just saying he was undrafted out of Central Michigan. The Eagles Hurts was a star at Alabama and Oklahoma - traditionally two of the best programs in College Football. Again, I respect what Rush has done with the Cowboys as a game manager but this will be his toughest test yet and if Prescott does play I would expect plenty of rust. Dak was very limited in practice and I really think they are going to wait on him and let the thumb heal more. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6 or -6.5

NFL 10* Top Play OVER 54 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:25 ET - I have tremendous respect for the Bills defense and I know they want revenge here and are going to bring their best effort. However, that does not change the fact that we have good weather in Kansas City for this one and the Chiefs (just like the Bills) are one of the best offenses in the league. KC is firing on all cylinders on that side of the ball right now too but I don't trust the Chiefs defense. The Bills should have no problem moving the ball here but likewise for Kansas City. Again, this is a match-up of the two best offenses in the NFL. Now the past big games between these teams, including post-season, certainly is going to up the ante in terms of defensive intensity here. But I just don't think it will matter. These two quarterbacks and these two offenses are just too good. By the way, I know Bills allowed only 3 points versus Pittsburgh last week but the Steelers actually had over 300 yards of passing offense and that was with Kenny Pickett at the controls! Can you imagine what Patrick Mahomes and Company is going to do in this one? Exactly! At the same time the Bills piled up 38 points last week and could have had even more and it was the 3rd time already this season they have topped the 30 point mark. The Chiefs have averaged scoring 32 points per game this season but are allowing an average of 25 points per game. This one turns into a huge back and forth showing between Mahomes and Josh Allen. This is going to be good! Last team with the ball wins...again...just like last year's epic battle! 10* OVER 54 in Kansas City

NFL Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins +3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am a contrarian and it is something that has served me well in the NFL through the years. In this case, the Vikings have been rolling and this line has flipped from Miami being a small favorite to Minnesota being now favored by a field goal on game day. Now of course part of the reason for the move is that  Tagovailoa is still out for this game and Bridgewater is expected to only be the back-up for this game. That means Skylar Thompson gets the start. What everyone is looking at with him is that he struggled last week on the road but I want to mention a couple of key factors with him. This guy had a phenomenal preseason and, even though that is only preseason, it still shows he can move a team down the field. Now this week he got full reps with the first string all week long and will be fully prepared for this start here and this is a home start. Keep in mind, he played his college career at Kansas State which means he faced some tough teams during his college career. This is not some guy coming out of a small college where you have concerns about the level of competition. I really like Thompson to surprise in this game and feel we have phenomenal value here with the home dog. If this game was at Minnesota, no I would not play it. But this is an entirely different situation. On that note, Dolphins on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog. Overall, Miami on a 10-4 ATS run entering this one and Vikings on a 2-6 ATS run entering this one. Dolphins also have covered 8 of last 12 versus NFC foes. 8* MIAMI +3

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders Pick -105 @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - When I see a 1-4 team that has lost 4 straight games as a pick'em on the road against a 2-3 team I will be grabbing that road team nearly 100% of the time. The line looks funny, right? This line is telling you that Commanders would be favored by 3 on a neutral field but how can that be when they keep losing every week plus the Bears have the better record? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you! I like to look at scoring stats compared to yardage stats and Washington shows the better true defense even though Chicago shows the better scoring defense. Also, in terms of offensive production, though the scoring is about the same, the yardage stats show the Commanders have a better offense than the Bears. In terms of pass protection and pass rushing based on sacks, Washington also holds the edges over Chicago in both categories. Turnovers have been an issue for the Commanders but they do have the much better passing offense in this match-up and that will lead the way to the road win here over the Bears. 10* WASHINGTON Pick -105

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 51.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - There is a reason this total is creeping higher even though there has been a plethora of unders in primetime football this season. This one is going over the total and will be a shootout. When a total is moving up but given all the unders we have had this season you know something is going on here. Note that the Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in all 4 games this season and now are facing one of the top offensive units in the league in the form of the Chiefs. The Raiders have scored an average of 26 points last 3 games and will be good to go here but they are a 7 point dog here for a reason. 34-27 sounds about right and that put this total closer to 61 than the 51 posted in some spots as of early Monday morning. Kansas City has had one low-scoring game at Indianapolis but has averaged scoring 37 points per game in their other 3 games! The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 4 games this season and this match-up features two solid offenses but a pair of weak pass defenses. Both teams giving up a pile of yardage through the air and the weather is going to be ideal in Kansas City for this one to feature an all-out aerial assault! The Chiefs put up 48 points on the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium last season and will have a another huge game here. But the Las Vegas offense starting to look better under head coach Josh McDaniels and don't be surprised if they match the Chiefs score for score here. 10* OVER 51.5 in Kansas City