Marshall is off a  52-37 win over App State, last week and could easily be caught in a letdown spot . App State was chosen in the preseason to win the SBC East Division. Marshall also enters this tilt against Georgia Southern  having lost 7 straight away games and Im betting things dont get much easier for them here vs a side  Eagles that battled a ranked  Boise State in their opener. Georgia Southern are also well rested as they  come into the game after a week off following a 38-21 win over Georgia State on Sept. 28. 

LSU off a bye week will be well rested and  primed to win this tilt as they have “Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Alabama up next -and cant afford a loss here. Last season these teams took part in a high scoring event in Oxford that Ole Miss won, and now in revenge mlode LSU Im betting will get payback and or at least a cover. Note: LSU is  5-1 ATS as a series dog with revenge, and 10-2 ATS in their last twelve with sone game exact  SEC revenge. LSU is 15-6 SU in revenge mode . Also the home side has covered 6 straight meetings in this series and get the nod again tonight. HOME SIDES  are on a 10-1 ATS run in the Ole Miss-LSU series. CFB Road favorites - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-40 ATS sinc ethe 2015 season.

Play on LSU to cover

The New Mexico offense is humming but their defense is not performing optimally, and a Air Force squad that is not in top form yet, could easily get untracked here today and do more damage offensively than anticipated by the pundits and linesmakers alike. New Mexico is just  1-14 ATS L/15  games as a home favorite, including 0-13 ATS as a favorite of fifteen or less points. 

CFB  home team - bad team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game are 12-41 ATS since the 2015 season.

Take the points with Air Force 

N.Texas is 14-2 ATS  in games against .400-or-less opposition like 2-3 Florida Atlantic . The Mean Green have played three times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -205 or shorter, and earned a victory in each game. Owls have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season.FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 4-16 (20%) ATS in its last 20 games following a SU win which was the case last time out. North Texas in October games are 9-0 ATS dating back to the 2022 season.North Texas when playing against a team with a losing record are 5-0 ATS since last season.

North Texas to cover

ULM  took out  previously unbeaten James Madison last Saturday night and will now be in a-huge emotional letdown spot vs Southern Miss this Saturday are vulnerable to a average at best outing.   ULM is 2-6 all-time versus Southern Miss and 0-2 versus the Golden Eagles inside Malone Stadium. USM has won the previous two meetings back in 2022 & 2023. 

LA-MONROE is on a 1-15 ATS run as a home favorite in Sun Belt play.

HC Will Hall off a cover where the team lost as an underdog is 6-0 ATS as HC of S.Miss.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - turnover prone team (2.5+ TO/game) against a mistake-free team (1.25 or lessTO/game), after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 24-3 ATS since the 1992 season.

Play on Southern Miss 

BYU is a perfect 5-0 to start their season, but I think their lucky to be in this position. Yes, they beat SMU and Kansas State, but the truth is they were out gained by the Wildcats and the Mustangs were going through a QB change. Considering Kalani Sitake is just 15-20 ATS as a home favorite in his ninth season in Provo its not like the Mormons are solid favs in this spot. Yes, Arizona has under achieved to this point especially on offense, but they could easily find their rhythm behind a very talented group.  I know the Cougars are off a bye week and rested, but in the past this has not been a good spot for them from a ATS perspective as they are 3-12 ATS L/15 with rest. The series visitor is 3-0 ATS L/3. 

Play on Arizona to cover

I know how bad Purdue has looked offensively this season ranking 120th in the nation, but after losing their first game to Penn State last time out, their opponents today Illinois may not be feeling it here and could easily play a mediocre game. It must be noted that Illini are 2-15 ATS  L/17 games as conference home favorite. Add to that Purdue has owned this series of late winning the L/4 meetings and you have what must be considered a value line to bet into . Especially when considering  PURDUE has been money in the back for their backers as is evident by a  11-1 ATS record in its last 12 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points. 

Illinois in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49.are 0-5 ATS dating back to last season and are.0-5 ATS home games against conference opponents.

Play on Purdue to cover 

The lines-makers are expecting this to be a low scoring grinding affair, so Im not comprehending the DD fav status being given to the Terps. Both these sides according to my power ranking projections estimate this to be a much closer game than the pundits and lines-makers expect. Maryland is just -1-7 ATS L/8 as fav. s .500 or less opposition and Northwestern is a perfect 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series including 3 SU wins. CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 5 through 9 are 41-13 ATS since the 2020 season.Northwestern in away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 5-0 ATS since the 2023 season. Maryland HC Mike Locksley after having won 2 out of their last 3 games is just 2-11 SU.

Play on Northwestern to cover

The UTEP Miners have shown zero potential  on both sides of the ball so far this season as their  0-5 SU record on the season indicates. It must be noted that when looking a  big spread cover, that there is an open ended advantage fo the Hilltoppers as they are ranked  25th nationally in completion rate while Miners rank 117th in opponent completion percentage. With that said, Im betting on Western Kentucky moving the chains decisively here and for a large point production output.UTEP has scored just 55 points in four games against FBS opposition and just wont be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Note: Kentucky as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since the 2022 campaign are a perfect 6-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at whopping 30 ppg.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

My projections estimate a combined score in the 55 point range, New Mexico is off a bye week and will be rusty on offense out of the gate. Meanwhile, Jacksonville could show some fatigue here on a short week of rest that saw them play last Friday, and could also start slowly.  The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season,  as QBs  Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Their lack of firepower helps this sscore stay under the listed Total. 

Home teams like Jacksonville State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 38-13 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average of 51,7 ppg scored.

CFB teams like New Mexico State where the total is between 56.5 and 63 - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 55-21 UNDER since 1992 with a combined average score of 55.4 ppg scored.

Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - outgained by opponent by 80 or more passing yards/game on the season have seen a combined average of 51 points per game scored from a sample size of 57 games dating back to the 2020 season.

 New Mexico State away or neutral games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2023 season with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

The Liberty Flames were supposed to play Appalachian State on September 28, but that didnt happen because of a hurricane. Now well rested and eager to make an impression this Thursday night on national TV vs an inferior  FIU side that ranks 110th in yards per play on offense and 60th on defense Im betting we see them at their best. Note: FIU has lost to FCS Monmouth a few weeks ago and are not a team that looks capable of hanging with the Liberty for a full four quarters. 

Play on the Liberty to cover

Traveling from east to west is tough for College football teams because of time zone adjustments. With Miami fl lucky to have gotten a win last week vs Virginia Tech and in letdown mode  Im betting it will be hard for them to get rolling here vs a viable California Bears football program, that is 8-2 ATS as home dogs of 6 points or more. Note : Miami is 1-9 ATS of a victory when they failed cover.Miami (FL) in weeks 5 through 9 qre 1-8 ATS since th3 2022 season. Miami (FL) off a win against a conference rival are 0-6 ATS L/6 since the 2022 campaign.Miami (FL) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. are 2-11 ATS since 2022.

Play on California to cover

  5-0 Duke have value written all over them as 9.5-point underdog to  3-2 Georgia Tech . It must be noted that the last two meetings between this sides  were decided by 4 and 3 points respective, and underdogs are on a run of 6-3 SU and 8-0-1 ATS run  in the Duke-Georgia Tech series. Georgia Tech has failed to cover 19 of their L/26  as a favorite since 2018 campaign. 

Play on Duke to cover

Mimnnesota quarterback Max Brosmer Im betting will be able to get the USC D in the short passing game where the Troahsn rank  (outside the top-90 in Pass Success Rate). I also expect  Gophers RB Darius Taylor   to have success running the ball against this Trojan defensive front 7 that has below average metrics attached to it. Im bettong on the Gophers holding tough here as they slow this game down into a grind and keep the high powered Trojan offense from getting the rythm they will need to win on the road. 

USC hasn't won a game in the Eastern or Central Time Zones since 2012 (0-9 SU, 1-8 ATS during that span)

USC  is 0-5 ATS L/5 off a conference win! 

 Minnesota to cover

The Razorbacks have played well against the best teams on their schedule through five weeks. They showed improvement in covers and close losses vs Oklahoma State and Texas A&M and must be respected in this spot play to be competitive. Tennessee is the darling of the SEC media pundits, but Im betting things wont come easily to them here as DD road favs. 

Arkansas 6-1 ATS in the last seven match- ups in this series, and overall, they are 8-2 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 point.

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Old dominion  has won its last eight games ATS as a conference underdog.

 Boise State when a Mountain West favorite of 20+ points, 10-1 ATS in its last 11.BOISE STATE is also on 7-0 SU and ATS run vs. Utah State and here on Homecoming will be primed to make a statement vs a side that can not match tyhem opn either side of the ball. note> Broncos  have averaged 47.8 ppg on offense this season and more than 50 ppg in their two home games. 

Play on Boise State to cover

Nebraska is 4-13-1 ATS at Home in its last 18. 

Oklahoma States HC Mike Gundy’  is 7-1-1 ATS l9 in this series,  , including 7-0 SUATS when theyre opp is  off an ATS win like West Virginia. The Mounties in the recent past have looked  rusty off a week of rest and are 0-4-1 ATS coming off a win and a bye week. After watching  the Mountaineers take down  Kansas  despite of  allowing a  season  high  yardage vs Jayhawks las time out it became obvious to me that the Cowboys are a viable bet in this spot play situation. CFB teams like

CFB team where the total is greater than or equal to 63 - after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 28-6 ATS since 2020.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover

Navy has looked terrific so far this season but have lost each of the last six games in this series, and  Im betting they have a hard time with military rivals Air force here today . Navy is  0-5 SU  L/5 at Falcon Stadium. It also be noted that this is the first time the fly boys have been underdogs at home since 2020 .and will be primed to get some respect here in this spot play. Navy in non-conference games are 0-5 ATS L/5 overall. Troy Calhoun in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread is 6-0 ATS.

Play on Air Force to cover

Louisville is off a close loss to Notre Dame last time out and will be primed to bounce back in a big way here at home today vs a SMU side that is 1-10 ATS before a week of rest.  and 4-10 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games.  Louisville when favored by 13 or less, they have cashed 10 of the L/11 times.   Louisville in home games when playing on a Saturday are 12-1 ATS since 2022. Home field advantage  and the importance of a critical Cardinal win we have an edge.

Play on Louisville to cover

The Orange have won the  stats battle in all four contests they have played  by an average of 134 yards per game.Meanwhile,  UNLV after losing former starting QB Matthew Sluka played great without him last time out beating up on Fresno State. However, Im now betting on an emotional letdown scenario, and for this tough under rated ?Syracuse side to make the Rebels work hard in this one. Syracuse can move the ball through the air with consistency averaging more tha 372.5 ypg , and have scored 31 points or more in their wins, and have a tough enough front to slow down the top tier running game of the Rebels. Note: UNLV allows 11.3 yards per completion.

CFB road team (Syracuse) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 38-12 ATS since 1992.

Ohio State beat up on Michigan State in a DD smash-down, and Im betting  4-0 Oregon does the same here tonight against a Spartas side, that is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS as a conference dog of 20 or more points.Michigan State when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) are 0-5 ATS since the 2023 season with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -31.5. The Spartans average offensive output rings in at +5.8 ppg.

Play on Oregon to cover

Im seeing value with a up trending Houston  defense that ranks in the top 50 in both pass success and finishing drives. Considering  TCU is outside the top 80 in finishing drives, we have a situation where the underdog looks like a more than viable option in  this Texas State rivalry. Im betting on the Cougars grinding away on the ground, and finding a way to keep this game to a crawl which will give them an edge covering this number. I know Houston hs looked bad in consecutive losses but HC Fritz is   3-0 ATS as a dog of 17 or more points.

CFB  Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 5 through 9 are 38-11 ATS L/4 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 9.2 ppg.

Play on Houston to cover

Troy's defense kept it in the game last week, as the Trojans held the Warhawks to 247 yards of total offense and 13 points, and Im betting will be the difference maker. Troy versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/games are 8-0 ATS L/8 . Troy against conference opponents 15-4 ATS L/19.Troy has won 12 straight games over Texas State for Troy entering Thursday night; Troy's longest winning streak over any opponent in program history. 

 New Mexico is off to a 0-4 start to their season, and now suddenly the linesmkaers believe they should be favs here on this long time rivalry between two instate football programs. I know the Aggies have also stated slowly losing 3 of 4, but according to my projections should not way this big of a  under dog, even against a revenge minded Lobs side.  

NEW MEXICO STATE is on 8-1 ATS run versus New Mexico.  NEW MEXICO STATE is 27-17 (61.4%) ATS in the last three seasons .  NEW MEXICO is 3-16 (15.8%) ATS as Favorite since 2018.  NEW MEXICO is 7-35 SU and 15-25 ATS (37.5%) in revenge mode since 2016. 

New Mexico State in home games after playing their last game on the road are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run since the 2022 season.

Play on New Mexico State to cover

  Ohio State OC Chip Kelly, has got everything in gear behind QB Will Howard  producing an average of  52.3 points per game. I know Michigan State defense   is allowing just a little over  13 points per game but this is a huge step up in competition and will Im betting they will allow well above their early season, average. On the flip side the Spartans banged up offense don’t have the guns  to keep up here with their explosive opponents . Ohio State is 7-0 SUATS in its last seven series meetings with MSU. Michigan State’s is also ugly  0-10 ATS L/10  as a home dog of 10 or more points. Add to that MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-12 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win.  Ryan Day in weeks 5 through 9 is 14-3 ATS with the average pig diff clicking in at just under 30 ppl which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

UCF is a football program that is currently very hard to play against thanks to its No.1 ranked  running game  attack, behind  RJ Harvey, who’s averaging 149 yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry. (Wow.) Prime times, Colorado rush D thats ranked 100th in the nation , has proven less than effective this season, and will have their hands full in this spot, and could easily find it difficult to rise to the occasion here on the road after a miraculous come from behind  win vs Baylor last time out. Colorado in away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 0-6 ATS since 2022 with the average ppg diff clicking. at -36.5.

CFB home team like UCF - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 26-5 ATS dating bsack to 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +26.6.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 23-2 dating back 9 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.9 .

Play on UCF to cover

This number is low, actually just a bit to low according to my projections.  Michigan L/16 games as a home favorite have seen a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

The last eight games of the Minnesota/Michigan  series have gone Over the total. 

CFB team like Michigan against the total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 50.6 ppg scored ( spanning 138 games dating back to the 2020 season).

System applies to: Michigan over.

KState looked asleep at the wheel last week at BYU, probably  looking ahead of this game which ended uo being a mistake. They did out yard the Mormons by a 367-241 , but thanks to three ugly turovers were run over by the more ficused and motivated side.  Now focused themselves  and ready to rebound Im betting we see the best of the Wildcats in this tilt.  CFB Home favorites - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in September games are 27-7 ATS since the 2020 season. Home favorites vs. the money line - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-2 since the 2020 season, with the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Home teams are on 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS runs in Oklahoma St/ KState  rivalry. Kansas State  is 41-24-2 (63.1%) ATS since 2019. Kansas State is on a 10-1 ATS run in Big 12 action when coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points. K-State is also 4-1 ATS with single conference revenge and 4-1 ATS as Big 12 favorites of less than a TD. Kansas State after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. is a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 opportunities. ansas State in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game are 6-0 ATS dating back the 2022 season.

Play on the Kansas State to cover

BYU is off a big upset of KState last week, but were a little lucky to get that victory in conclusive fashion because they were out gained. Now in an emotional letdown spot, Im betting they start slowly giving a redemption minded Baylor side that blew a lead last week to Colorado a chance to get some pride back. Baylor until late looked good in that tilt sacking Colorado QB. Sanders 8 times. Note: Todays game is scheduled to start at 11 a.m. Central time, 10 a.m. Mountain time (where BYU is located). Last season, BYU was 0-5 SU in games that started in the morning or early afternoon before 1:30 p.m. local time.Baylor is 7-0-1 ATS  L/8 at home in contests  when coming off a loss and facing opposition  coming off a win. 

Play on Baylor to cover

Miami , Fl has smashed  Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State, and South Florida but now this will be what my power rankings suggest will be their biggest test of the season in Virginia Tech,  I know Vtech has disappointed some pundits, with one score losses to Rutgers and Vanderbilt, but this is still a talented side with 19 returning starters ,  that Im betting will do enough to get us the cover in this Friday night spot play. Note: Virginia Tech is a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 with triple revenge and 7-2 ATS in conference play as 10 or more point underdogs. Miami Fl as conference home fav are 0-5 ATS if favored by more than 8 points. Miami is also 4-18 ATS coming off a win when taking on  an opponent after a loss.

Miami (FL) off a road win is 0-6 ATS off a road win, since tbhe 2022 season.Mario Cristobal vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better is 2-10 ATS as a coach of Miami.Mario Cristobal in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return is 0-6 ATS.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover

Army has  outscored the opposition 103-28, with their ground heavy option offense  including 61-21 in their two FBS games. The offense is clicking and Im betting they will continue to produce here this evening vs  a Temple side on short rest.  It must be noted the Owls when they faced the option offense of the Navy  Midshipmen they allowed 38 points in a DD loss. Im betting Temple will also get run over defensively again, but their offense is starting to up trend as was evident when they scored 45 points and had 6.6 yards per play against Utah State last week behind a solid looking QB Evan Simon. 

Temple games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 68.7 ppg. Temple home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored going over 5 straight times dating back to last season .

Army West Point games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored.

CFB Home teams like Temple- sub par team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game have seen  an of 54.5 ppg scored spanning 95 games going back to the 2015 season

CFB Home teams like Temple where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in September games are 43-15 OVER L/9 seasons for a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total - dominant team like Army outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a poor team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1992 with a combined average of 61.6 ppg.

Play over

Chris Kleiman’s  3-0 Wildcats took out Arizona last week at home on National TV  and now going on the road could easily find themselves in a letdown spot, especially when they could be in a look ahead revenge  situation vs Oklahoma State up next . My early season projections estimate that the Mormons are a  under rated football program and deserve respect here as home dogs.  It must be noted that KState is just  (12-11-2 ATS in away tilts and  failed to cover 7 of their L/10 overall vs  .700 or better opp and are  just 2-6 ATS as conference road favorite  of 12 or less points. Meanwhile, BYU  at home off back-to-back away tilts  are  11-1 ATS  in their  last twelve tilts as pups. BYU also is 3-0, including road wins the past two weeks against SMU (19-15) and Wyoming (34-14).The Cougars   defense, is  allowing just 236.3 yards per game, which ranks 13th nationally and second in the conference and will once again be key to us covering this underdog number. vs a one dimensional run game that is employed by KState  Note:Playing at altitude and late  night start will be  tough for  K-State to over come. 

Kalani Sitake after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games is 13-3 ATS L/16.

Play on BYU to cover

Iowa has played well on the road in this series, going 4-0 ATS . Its also a good idea to Bet on Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less.Ferentz's record as coach of IOWA: 5-0 (100%) with an average line of +0.4. (+5.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) the average margin of victory is by 7.8 ppg.

Im betting the Hawkeyes will be in. alook ahead situation here vs Ohio State up next, and could find their offense just going through the motions earlier on this game vs a tough Minnesota D that has not allowed points since the 4th quarter of their game against North Carolina to start their season. Both teams thrive via the rush and that will eat clock time which in turn gives credence to a lower scoring sleep fest. Kirk Ferentz games when the total is 35 or less as coach of Iowa : 9-1 UNDER (90%) with an average over/under of 31.9 with a combined average of 27.4 ppg scored.Kirk Ferentz in a road game where the total is 35 or less of Iowa has seen a combined average score of 26.4 ppg scored spanning 5 games.

Play under

 FAU’ enters this game on a  16-1 ATS run as a underdog  of less  than 17 points or less  against. .600 opp  coming off a loss like the 0-2 Huskies. UConn is and has been a highly inconsistent  football program of late  as is evident by a  1-7 ATS record as chalk  versus AAC sides. FAU  has been effective defensively, surrendering 20 points per contest (58th-ranked).UConn  defensively ranks  25th-worst in the nation with 31 points allowed per game mark.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

The Arkansas Hogs will be primed to revenge their ugly 52-3 home loss to the Tigers in this tilt. It must be noted HC. Pittman is 9-1 ATS when taking six or  less  points. Arkansas is also 7-1 ATS as a road underdog with revenge with HC Sam Pittman at the helm. Motivational edge is huge for the Razorbacks vs a Auburn team that just does not look or feel the part of a contender this season. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

The Green Wave are a top tier team, that  are getting very little respect  from the market thanks to losing 2 of their first three games  despite outgaining their  opponents by  an average of 98 yards per game. Tulane lost to Oklahoma despite of staying close right until the 4th quarter and took another defeat vs Kansas State .  New QB  Mensah  is proving hes a formidable leader under center and is backed by a solid running game as   running back in Makhi Hughes continues to smash through defenses as evident against Kstate where he accumulated 128 yards. 

Tulane is  19-4 SU  as a road favorite  and  must not be under estimated in their ability to cash another ticket oday vs Louisiana.   The Ragin’ Cajuns 2-0 have been off for a week and this will be their first true test of the season, after facing Kennesaw State and Grambling. Im betting the step up in class wont go well. 

Play on Tulane 

Washington State is in a letdown spot here vs San Jose State this Friday night after their big win against instate rivals Washington last week. SJSU took out Air Force on the road,  last time out, and wont be easily intimidated here and are now 3-0 overall. Im not sold on the Cougars  D, after watching Texas Tech march up and down the filed against a couple of weeks ago, and San Jose State behind a solid offense lead by a viable QB in Emmett Brown and a  prime time  playmaker \ Nick Nash are a side that can surprise in this spot play. Note: Dating back to last season San Jose State is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Washington State is 1-5/SU/0-6 ATS L/6 after playing Washington State. 

Play on San Jose State to cover

South Alabama lost a pair of  defensive masterminds on the coaching staff from last season, and their winningest QB is now gone, as is a 1000 yard rusher and their top reciever. This reorganized Jaguars program has looked problematic on D so far this season, allowing North Texas  415 yards and three touchdowns and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel at the wheel vs  Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro allowing him a  71% pass completion rate. Yes, the  the Jaguars’ put  87 points on the board vs a  swiss cheese Northwestern State D  were the most in a single game in school history and now Im betting on immediate big time  regression after that crazy non stop output. 

Meanwhile, . App State finished last season by  winning five of its last six to make the conference title game and have now won 17 of their L/20 here in Boone and deserve respect a favs in this venue. The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with almost 70% of group coming back from the 2023 squad including  star quarterback Joey Aguilar. I know they got clobbered by Clemson in their oponer and had to battle back form a 16 point deficit in a come  back won  against E.Carolina last time out. But after those two sub par efforts should now be ready for a top tier effort in their conference oponer. 

Im betting on this being a game where Joey Agilar shines vs a D with a below average secondary. I know the App states run game seems a little bit choppy to start the season, but the pass game remains dangerous and will have a slot of success in this spot.

App State has won the L/4 meetings as hosts in this series, and have won the L/3 meetings overall by 31-7, 30-3 and 52-7 counts. 

 Alabama when playing against a team with a winning record.are 0-5 ATs L/5.

Play on App State to cover

CFB home team like Virginia vs. the money line - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 40-9 L/4 seasons. A FB road team like Maryland vs. the money line - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG), after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game are 5-32 dating back to the 1992 season.

Kentucky looked lifeless last week in a ugly 31-6  loss to South Carolina and Im sure Mark Stoops group is not in a good mood, and contemplating how to redeem themselves. Add to that the  Wildcats have serious revenge on board for a ass whooping they suffered last season on the road in Athens at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs- 51-13 and you have a situation where the Wildcats and Stoops will be primed for a face Saving competitive bounce back. With Georgia it must be noted that in 80 home games under  Stoops, Kentucky has  only seven losses by more than 24 points . Yes, No.1 Georgia is the superior side, but could easily be looking ahead to their bye week and their  tilt with Alabama in a couple of weeks. With that said, Im betting we won’t see everything the Bulldogs can throw at the Wildcats, and leave that for Alabama. It must also be noted that Georgia has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as 14 or more road chalk in SEC play, and have failed to cover 10 of their L/12 before a bye week.  Meanwhile, Kentucky has thrived as a dog of 17 or more points when seeking revenge with HC Mark Stoops at the helm of team  and are ,  5-0 ATS versus opposition coming off a victory. 

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover

UTSA (1-1) were beaten up on vs a under rated Texas State squad last time out, and will be primed to show life this week vs a Texas  (2-0) side in a letdown spot,. The Longhorns after going into the Big House last week and coming out  with a resounding DD victory vs Michigan  that places them high in the national rankings should  now show regression this week making covering this huge line a difficult task. Note: 

Texas HC Steve Sarkisian   in his career when his team is coming off two wins-exact, has failed to cover 10 straight opportunities  when facing above .500 or better opposition . Texas State has covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 or more point underdogs . Aslo UTSA HC Jeff Traylor  when coming off a double-digit loss, is 10-0 ATS  in hia last ten opportunities. HC Jeff Traylor after playing their last game on the road are 16-2 SU.

CFB Road underdogs  UTSA with a line  of 31.5 or more points - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season are 28-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate since 1992.

Play on UTSA to cover

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

This is a long standing rivalry. between Oregon and Oregon State.  The Ducks have been money in the bank , going 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series played in the Beaver Dam. Im betting on Oregon State behind the nations 5th rank run game, to grind away here today, and do a good job of keeping the Ducks one way passing game from exploding with regularity and as a result  to be competitive vs a side that Im sure they are pumped to play.  CFB home team Oregon State vs. the money line - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 21-4 since 2020.

System applies to: Oregon State.

The Green Wave outgained K-State last week by a  491-396 count, and if it were not for a late fumble recovery by the Wildcats the Green Wave were headed towards what was a prpojected win. Now in bounce back mode Im betting they are being under rated by the linemakers here vs Oklahoma a side that  struggled to get by Houston last week in a low scoring sleepfest . Note: HC Jon Sumrall, wis 24-6 SU and 20-7 ATS in his  college career, including 11-1 ATS away and Im betting they hang tough here again.

Play on Tulane to cover

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

·Arizona’s below average  performance against Northern Arizona has me backing away from them and actually betting against them.  Im also not a big fan of first-year Arizona head coach Brent Brennan. Meanwhile, , I know the Wildcats had to work hard to get by Tulane, but as the  season progresses Im betting that the Green Wave are a much better team then some of the oddsmakers odds suggested , thus giving credence to me backing them home side here tonight. 

In games involving two ranked teams since 2017, the home side  is 170-85 SU and 145-102-8 ATS for a 59% conversion rate for bettors and  when the host side has been ranked above the visitor, those teams have gone 102-18 SU and 75-41-4 ATS for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.Also  better ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS for 71% conversion rate dating back 11 seasons.

 KState is 40-23-2 ATS for a 64% conversion rate  since 2019.

Road underdogs vs. the money line like Arizona State - in conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are just 4-33 dating back to 2015 with the average margin ppg differential clicking in at -14.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on KState to cover
.

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

After a  surprising 2-0 start under second-year ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham the Sun Devils take  on a Texas State side that is highly under rated and expected to win their conference .  Last week against Mississippi State they took 30-23 victory but did not look good in the 2nd half getting outscored 20-3 and Im betting they continue to regress into this tilt.   It must also be stated that ASU QB  Sam Leavitt struggled in a big way against Mississippi State. He completed 10-of-20 pass attempts for just 65 yards and Im expecting the Sun Devils will have to lean on their run game again, whihc maybe not ideal on a short turnaround, as exhaustion may rear its ugly head. 

Home team like Texas State vs. the money line - excellent offense from last season - averaged 6.1 or more yards/play, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 30-4 since 1992 for go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team like Texas State vs. the money line - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 23-3 since 2015 for a 89% conversion rate.

Texas State to cover

The Arizona State Sun Devils took what for me was a surprising  48-7 win vs the Wyoming  Cowboys. Now against Mississippi State this week , Im betting on immediate regression.  Meanwhile, New HC , Jeff Lebby, a former offensive assistant at Oklahoma/Baylor,/ UCF, takes over as the Bulldogs top man and immediately  smashed FCS opponent  Eastern Kentucky, 56-7 in his opener.Last season the Bulldogs took out the  Wildcats in one of its only three losses f in a  31-24. OT victory in Starkville and beat them by DDs  the year before. With that said, Im expecting this game to be alot closer than the linemakers estimates , with the taking the points being the play. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover

Oregon beat Idaho last week a 24-14 count and were just not efficient when it came to putting points on the board .Alot is expected of the Ducks this season, but today Im betting their current frustrations will continue vs Boise State  side that is being under rated.  Last week Boise State took out Georgia Southern,  in convincing fashion . It must be noted that the Broncos own a  3-0 SU ATS series record vs  Oregon  and get a chance to play a side that will be in a look ahead situation as they take on long  time rivals Oregon State next time out. Boise in their 2nd game of season, in the past when on the road are 6-0 ATS as a pick or underdog and 5-0-1 ATS when coming off an away tilt in their previous game which is the case here today.  Boise State  playing in the underdog role as a  DD dog against .750 plus  opposition are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities.

Play on Boise State to cover

 ODU lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina last week losing by a 23-19 count despite of out gaining the Gamecocks. Here today vs a poor traveling East Carolina side, Im betting the home side grabs the victory behind the momentum of their opener. Also tbe Pirates have lost 13 of their L/16 road openers SU. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover

 The wrong team is favored here according to my projections. South Alabama got blasted by North Texas last week allowing 52 points while putting 38 on the board in return.  Ohio has a much better D, than South Alabama and  when looking at all the moving parts and are capable of putting alot of point production on board vs a ugly looking swiss cheese D. I know Ohio last to Syracuse 38-22 in game 1 of their season, but thats never an easy venue to play in. 

South Alabama has not faired well in the favorites role on the road failing to cash 10 of the rL/13 opportunities and  their HC Major Applewhite has failed to cover 6 of his L/8 as a road fav. 

Ohio is 11-1 L/12 SU at home . 

Play on Ohio

This  I-35 rivalry began in 2012 with UTSA winning all 5 matchups, including a 20-13 SU  last season at the Alamodome. Last week the Bobcats and Roadrunners squeezed past their opponents , but this week I expect we will see both sides at their best in the what the linesmakers expect to be a close game.  However my projections make UTSA the winner even though they starting a new QB  (McGowan) on the underdog line . Note: Texas State allowed 16 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams. im betting this will be a problem again.  Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 64% (559 completions/872 attempts) since the 2022 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Play on UTSA to cover

The Gamecocks squeezed past Old Dominion last week for a 23-19 victory and lost the stats battles by 17 yards in total. South Carolina ran the ball 56 times in their season opener. That is the third-most attempts by a team in a single game this season. I expect them to continue to grind the ball on the ground, but they go against a Kentucky run defense that is of the top tier variety , and  this seasons front seven project to be the best of the Mark Stoops era. Carolina is in my opinion not a cohesive side and could well get blown out of the water here today vs . Mark Stoops troops from Kentucky that  are in revenge mode for two straight losses in this series. My projections estimate  their new  QB Brock Vandergriff,  matches up well here and should part Carolinas pedestrian D, like Moses parted the Red Sea. The Kentucky Wildcats are  15-0 ATS coming off a nonconference tilt when going against  a .500 or better opponent.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over

Georgia Tech maybe over rated after beating a Florida State in their opener in Dublin,a Seminoles program that is now 0-2 on the season after losing outright to BC last week as 17 point chalk.  It must be noted that the Rambling Wreck are going against a Orange football program that 10-2 SU in their last 12 home openers and 9-0 SU in their first four games of the last couple of seasons.  The Rambling Wreck, have also lost 8 of 11 SU, and are  2-9 ATS as road favorites dating back to in the 2014 season , including  1-8 SU in road openers dating back 9 seasons. Syracuse is also  30-16-1 ATS at home when coming off a victory, which was the case last week and look like they have an explosive QB in Kyle McCord  who recorded   354 passing yards and four TD passes.  Syracuse is not an easy out for Gtech and taking the points here is the call. 

Play on the Syracuse to cover

 Texas and Michigan have faced each other just one , and that was in the 2005 Rose Bowl, a 38-37 thriller won by the Longhorns on a late FG. Here today Im expecting another close affair.  In their openers Texas blasted Colorado State 52-0 and Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 on the back of what could be college  footballs best defense behind new DC Don Martindale who comes to Ann Arbour from the Baltimore Ravens. . With the Longhorns  entire offensive skill position group being  new getting unwound and in top form is still a ways off, and the Colorado State game did nto qualify, considering the talent difference. The Wolverines D, offers up a whole different challenge. Advantage Michigan. 

 The Longhorns are 1-11 ATS as road chalk  when coming off scoring 50 or more points  in a victory. Texas is also 1-78 ATS  L/10 vs Big 10 sides, and 0-7 ATS vs Big 10 as favs. 

Michigan is 6-0 SU/ATS against SEC opposition  when they are coming off a double-digit victory which is the case this week.

Play on Michigan to cover

This will be Army's first game as a new member of the AAC and they will once again focus on  an almost exclusive run game  and try to systematically   dismantle Florida Atlantic here on the road today.The Cadets enter this game on a 5 game win streak, and deserve respect here in the underdog role.  On the flipside Im not liking what I saw in FAUs first game vs Michigan State on offense and especially at the  QB position ,as was evident  by going 2 for 15 on third down conversions . Note FAU is 3-9 ATS L/12 lined home opening  tilts  and are just 1-4 SU L/5 as hosts overall. Army HC Jeff Monken in games played on a grass field 12-5 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.5 ppg.

Play on Army to cover

Kansas State only has four starters back on offense and will rely on the running game behind  DJ Giddens. Im betting the Cats will not be as fluent offensively as they have been in the past. Meanwhile, Tulane a program on the rise starts their season with a new HC Jon Sumrall  who was on a 23-4 SU run with the Troy Trojans before landing here/ Tulane is 7-3 ATS in the last ten as a home dog and Jon Sumrall is 7-1 ATS as a dog. KCState ks just 2-8 ATS L/10 on the road as a favorite of less than 14 points. Advantage Tulane 

 Im expecting Florida State to bounce back here after being upset by Georgia Tech last week in Ireland. But Im also betting after their long trip over seas and their return acclimation to the time change here in North America things will not go smoothly. Meanwhile, this  Boston College  football program is a side  that can make  life miserable for them with star dual threat QB  Thomas Castellanos  taking snaps.Add to that the viable coaching of new HC Obrien and upgraded D through the transfer portal  and you have a situation where this many points with a 17 return start roster  should be looked at a strong opportunity to cash a underdog ticket. Florida State has won five straight in the series but four of those were decided by seven points or less. - BC  is 20-11  ATS in Conference games since 2020 for a 65% conversion rate. * FL State  is 8-17  ATS in Conference games since 2021 for go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston College to cover

 USC HC  Riley and USC are not  getting much respect here vs LSU , but it must be noted he has been solid in the  underdog role , going 6-1 ATS in his career when taking more than a FG , including 4-0 ATS during the regular season. The Trojans have also covered 3 of their L/4 season openers as pup[s. Its also important to note that Riley is a perfect 12-0 in his career as a HC of USC in opening games and Brian Kelley has lost his L/2 seasons openers. Im betting USC revamped D, and always explosive offense really make this into a hard fought game, which taking the points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Play on USC to cover

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

 Alot of public money continues to stream in on Texas  A&M in HC Mike Elkos debut on the sidelines for the Aggies. There is a saying that was termed before the last financial crash in around 2007 -2008 and that was irrational exuberance. Thats why Im betting we are seeing here. While Texas A&M are a fine team, the Irish are an esteemed football program, with great pedigree and even though they are starting a new QB in Riley Leonard who comes over from Duke this team must not be underestimated getting a FG on the line. Note: Notre Dame 7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog in season openers. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Im betting this  UNLV team can score in bunches behind what is a deep QB core - as  Hajj-Malik Williams, Matthew Sluka and Cam Friel – are all listed  as co-starters.-along with a  up-trending viable WRs core  . The Rebs should find lots of success vs a Houston program that is  rebuilding a defense that finished 120th in the country in opponent EPA last season. 

Note: UNLV football  programs have some nice trends backing them in this road opener. UNLV is 12-0 ATS away L/12 in non-conference tilts. 

Play on UNLV to cover

 South Alabama has a first-time head coach at the helm of the football program this season as Major Applewhite  will bring back just seven  starters from a 7-6 team that did not impress last season. Meanwhile, the North Texas Mean Green return 10 starters but their offense is expected  to be every bit as explosive as it was last season when they averaged 34.5 ppg. Alabama has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 games at home on Saturdays while North Texas is 7-0-1 ATS L/8 on Saturdays.

Play on North Texas to cover

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

This one stands out as having some exceptional value attached to it. Yes Umass looked alot more viable last year, and garnered a 3 win season, but  with a 6-46 SU record L/5 seasons -they are a long way from being a perennial fav and from my perspective look like they are a weak chalk choice this week vs a Eastern Michigan program that has been to a Bowl game in 6 of their L/8 campaigns. EMU is 33-13 ATS L/46 road games. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Im not a HC Cristobal fan and despite of transfer portal giving him gun slinger  QB Cam Ward , I still don't like the trajectory of the team and its overall chemistry. On the flipside, Im also not a big fan of Billy Napier's inconsistencies as the swamp is getting restless behavior from their backers after consecutive losing seasons. Now on the hot seat, Im betting a gigantic effort here from the Gators vs Canes. Note:Napier  4-1 is  SU/ATS in his  career as a home pup  as well as cashing  11 of his L/13 SU/ATS as a underdog of less than 5 points. Florida is also  41-1-2 SU in home openers dating back 44 seasons , including a staggering  37-0-1 against non-conference opposition like the Canes. Key players personnel update: This Hurricanes defense is replacing all four starters on the back end, and the Gators have the offensive options to take advantage of his situation. 

Play on Florida to cover 

  I like the trajectory this West Virginia football program  is taking and Im going to back them out of the gate here vs Penn State. The Mounties rank 12th in offensive returning production and are backed by what is now an  up-trending QB in  Garrett Green. Here in this opening week spot play Ill take the home side that has won 19 of their L/20 home openers  SU to be in  revenge mode  vs a Penn State side that beat them DD fashion last season ( 38-15) . Note: HC Brown of the Mountaineers is 13-6-1 ATS L/20 with revenge for a DD defeat. With that said at more than TD we have a value situation that deserves our action.

Play on West Virginia  to cover 

The Oklahoma Sooners project to get and easy cover and win here at home in Norman where they have won 15 straight home openers. This Sooners team is never to moralistic as to take their foot off the preverbal gas pedal when they get a lead and Im betting nothing changes tonight vs Temple in what Im betting will see the score run up in ugly one sided fashion.  From a lines makers perspective I see exactly why this line is this big.  Enormous  favorites  like the Oklahoma Sooners  on a line of -37.5 points or more have been money in the bank for their backers  in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening portion of college football dating back to the  2013 season  recording a 14-0 SU/ ATS (100%) run . When opening lines are in the 40 point area  these games have seen an  average score of 58.2 to 8.8. My projections estimate that the Sooners pound Temple by 45 points here or more. 

Play on the Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

Underdog North Dakota State has recorded a  FCS program record of 17 national titles and must not be underestimated in their ability to compete here vs prime time Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes.  The Bison are 3-1 all-time versus Big 12 opposition  with their last win coming against Iowa State in 2014.The Bison have won eight straight season openers and must not be underestimated in pulling off a SU upset here vs Colorado. They were picked No. 2 in both major FCS preseason polls behind two-time defending national champion South Dakota State.. NDSU is also 6-1 ATS in its past seven road games. Both Colorado and North Dakota State feature strong QB play with Shedeur Sanders taking snaps under center for the Buffs and the Bisons QB Cam Miller who has made 38 straight starts. With that said, Im betting on a back forth game with the experienced  Bison QB Miller making some big plays to keep this game close enough for a possible outright upset and more importantly a cover. 

Play on North Dakota State to cover

The Tigers finished last season  with a 7-4 SU  record and enter Thursday's tilt with returning quarterback Jacobian Morgan and dangerous group of defenders that the most interceptions in the nation last season. JSU has won every season opener since 2020 and Im betting they wont go down easily here in spot vs UL Monroe that is getting far to much respect . 

Jackson State to cover -LATE STEAM

SMU steps into the  ACC with 15 starters back from last season, including top gun  QB Preston Stone . This is a Mustangs team that has averaged 37 ppg over the L/5 seasons, and has upped their defensive capabilities as was evident last season when they allowed an average of just 17.8 ppg. Meanwhile, Nevada enters this season of a 2-10 campaign in 2023, and now have a new coach at the helm, former defensive coordinator of the Texas Longhorns. They return a fair amount of players, but their not winning ones, at this point and with new formations and schemes could easily find themselves just playing to find themselves here in the first part of this season, which is not a good omen for their chances covering here today.

Nevada is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Nevada is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home

Nevada is 2-20 SU in its last 22 games

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

My projections make this Washington Huskies team an  underdog of closer to a FG in a game Im betting will be much closer than this line suggests. Huskies HC DeBoer is  8-1 ATS as a  pup , including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and is also  6-1 SU against  undefeated opposition. Meanwhile, HC Harbaugh owns a  11-21-1 ATS career vs undefeated sides like Washington. Teams like Michigan who defeated a Nick Saban side last time out have failed to cash 11 of their L/14. My own view here is the Michigan wolverines after getting some fortunate calls and a dream play run at the game to tie Alabama could find it hard to get their emotional drive back here . After watching in disbelief Saban allowed Michigan  to take the ball first in OT with momentum   which resulted in a TD. Then on offense the Tides miscues cost them from tying the game.  Now  Im betting the Wolverines  will now be in a huge letdown spot. In my opinion it was Saban that lost that game and gifted it to Michigan.  Hey dont get me wrong the Wolverines are fine team, but Im betting on Huskies super star QB Penix who can make the best of Defenses look bad to step up here and give the edge to the Huskies to cover. note: DeBoer is 11-1 ATS   in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on Washington to cover

Washington undefeated season came by route of an explosive offense that averaged just under 38 points per game and  rarely could be slowed. their Achilles heel has and is their D that allowed  30.1 ppg, and Texas is a team that can exploit that as is evident by averaging 36.2 ppg this season and that put up 57 and 49 points respectively in their L/2 games of the season. What Im betting on here today is a back and forth blockbuster that easily eclipses this total.  TEXAS is 10-0 L/10 OVER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 68.7 ppg scored. TEXAS is 16-3 OVER L/19 after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games with a combined average of 71 ppg scored. Washingtons HC DeBoer has seen his team score an average of 43.2 in his teams L/10 non conference games.

Play over

Alabama started slowly this year but like a  run away freight train seem unstoppable now. 

The Tide enter this game with some powerful trends on their  side. For example Alabama is  20-3-1 ATS as an underdog against  an undefeated team and the SEC champion team  is  perfect  6-0 ATS in a Bowl game  vs a undefeated side.  On the flipside the wolverines are 0-6 SU/ATS in their L/6 Bowl games.

I know Michigan can run the ball, and have a mobile QB, but Sabans crew owns 30th ranked rush defense in the country allowing just   3.7 YPC and 124.5 YPG. I can see Harbaugh finding the sledding tough in this matchup and thus for us taking the points makes alot of sense. 

ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play this season.

Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of MICHIGAN.

Play on Alabama to cover

The Tennessee Volunteers have alot of talent, but that has not helped all that much this season, as they underperformed as compared to what the pundits though they would achieve. The Vols owned the worst time of possession in all of FCS football, and here against Iowas super staunch D, will be challenged to hold the ball for long here today. What Im betting on is that this disciplined Iowa D, that ranked 5th in not taking penalties this season will life miserable for a mistake prone and undisciplined Vols side that ranked 127 th in penalties this season. I know the Hawkeyes offense has looked stale this season, but it must be noted that TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS L/20 versus terrible offensive teams - averaging 4.25 or less yards/play. Also Ferentz is 31-18 ATS  when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of IOWA with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Liberty comes into this game undefeated and have out yarded their opposition in every game this season and Im betting if they lose to this powerful Oregon side they wont go into the night easily. After losing the PAC 12 championship to Washington, the Ducks may find themselves in a emotional letdown spot. With RB Bucky Irving opting out and a litany of other key missing parts from the regular season the Ducks are waddling in this tilt vs a formidable opponent.  QB Bo Nix cannot win this game on his own.

Note: Pac 12 Bowlers are 3-26 ATS vs teams coming off a victory like Liberty.  
Liberty 6-0 ATS vs. sides  coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 26-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover

QB Jayden Daniels’ will play for LSU today and his name alone has over bloated this line in favor of the underdogs Wisconsin. It must be noted that Heisman Trophy QBS  have lost 20 of 31 games SU vs top tier  defenses that give up 19 PPG or less like the Badgers. I know LSU has flashy explosive offense but Wisconsin has a very tough D, that can slow down the best of attacks. On the flips side Im betting the Badgers can grind their way towards the red zone , and also do some damage to a non existent  LSU red zone D, ranked 113th in the nation. Note:

Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points while, the Badgers have covered 6 of their L/8 as 6+ point underdogs.

CFB Neutral field favorites (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 34-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Two very explosive offenses go head to head here in the Orange bowl with Florida State averaging 37 ppg, and their opponent Georgia averaging 38.4 ppg. Both these teams can make top tier defenses look average and thats what Im betting on today in this Bowl game. 

My projections estimate a much higher scoring game than the linesmakers- with both sides scoring 28Plus points  Note: GEORGIA is 46-0 OVER L/46  when both teams score 28 or more points . FLORIDA ST is 46-4 OVER L/50 when both teams score 28 or more points . 

Norvell is 13-3 OVER  with extended rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.4 ppg scored. 

Smart is 11-3 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 59 ppg going on the board in those games. 

CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for. a70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Auburn lost  In the Stats battles , in all 7 conference games with a net average of -165 YPG and yet fine d favor with the linesmakers. Needless to say this was not one of better incarnations of the Auburn football program and Im betting they are getting far to much respect here  vs a Maryland side with a top tier QB at the helm of their offense,  ( future NFLer  Taulia Tagovailoa)

Auburn is -1-5 SU ATS L/6 Bowl games and failed to cover 7 of their L/8 against the Big 10.  AUBURN is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.

Teprs are 5-1 ATS  L/6 non conference tilts. 

MARYLAND is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Maryland to cover

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart can rip apart the best of defenses. Yes, Penn State has a top tier D, but their offense is very inconsistent . Note: Penn States respected defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has left a for a job at Duke, and will not be around to mentor his D today. Edge Ole Miss taking points. 

Big Ten bowl sides like Penn State  have lost 11 of 17 games  and are just  4-13 ATS versus the SEC football programs when they are a  three point or more  favorite. Ole Miss is  5-0 SUATS as the bowl under dog  of 3 or more points. 

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 L/30 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 170-101 L/31 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

Missouri has a strong QB and offense lead by their key arm under center  Brady Cook . With that said,  Im betting the Tigers do some damage here today. Meanwhile, despite of alot of transfer portal opt outs for Ohio State on offense the depth  of this top tier variety program  is very viable and and Im also betting  hold their own offensively no matter who the QB is. 

MISSOURI in their L/20 games in December games  have seen a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-11 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate fro bettors.

Play over

Clemsons  HC Dabo Sweeney is used to playing for bigger marbles than this, and the team as whole may not be as motivated to play in a minor bowl  . Meanwhile. Kentucky is a gritty team, that has played well overall this season, against top tier competition and considering ,ACC teams are  just 1-6 SU L/7  l  bowl games vs the Southeastern Conference its not going to be hard decision for me to take the points with the underdog Wildcats who are 24-1 SU in their L/25 non conference games.

Play on Kentucky to cover

I know Oklahoma will start a freshman QB  Jackson Arnold today after their starter went into the transfer portal, but this is still a solid Sooners team that is more than capable of upending No.14th ranked Arizona.  He went 18-for-24 for 202 yards this season so its not like hes has not taken a snaps. Scouting reports also say hes is excelling in the new offensive coordinators system. I also know Arizona has won 6 straight and are streaking into this Bowl game, but it must also be noted that  Pac-12 bowl sides  are an ugly 2-25 ATS versus opposition  coming off a victory.

Note: The Sooners are 5-0 SU in their L/5 games against Pac-12.  The favorite is 2-7 ATS in this bowl venue.

Arizona QB Noah Fafita may have more issues staying upright as his starting starting left tackle, will ,miss this tilt,

Historical trend chart:

ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992.ARIZONA is 1-12 ATSin road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. (Beat rivals Arizona State 59-23 last time out)

Both of these teams have opt outs, but the deeper side is Kansas State and they have the better coach in my opinion, Kleiman who takes winning seriously and losing even more intensely as is evident by going   6-0 ATS /SU  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.( KState lost to Iowa State 42-35 to end the season) Bounce back time on todays agenda for the Wildcats. Note: Kleiman is 10-1-1 ATS off a loss versus a side  coming off a victory like NC State. 

KANSAS ST is 13-5 ATS (as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. KState ranked No. 1 in the nation in most Defensive TD

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NC STATE) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NC State is 0-3 SUATS L3 Bowls. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

To start with SMU is 0-4 SU/ATS vs ACC schools and have lost their L/3 Bowl games SU/ATS all as chalk. I know Boston college will have a back up QB at the helm of the offense, but my projections estimate they will still do enough damage to cover this number with their D being the key to covering this number and even possibly pulling of the upset. It must also be noted three of the Eagles 6 wins came as underdogs this season and they must not be discounted in this spot play . I know SMU comes in their streaking, but are jus  2-11 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 55-24 L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BC to cover

Texas A&M enters this Bowl game with a recent history of failure in Bowl games going 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 appearances. The Aggies despite of some top tier talent just makes to many mistakes and are an undisciplined group as is evident by ranking No. 130  in the nation in Most Penalties Per Game (9.83). Also the Aggies this season are 1-5 SU against fellow Bowl teams. Considering the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS L/7 series , I like their chances to cover against a inconsistent Aggies side.   .The key will be one of the nations top running backs  Gordon who eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight games this season and has 20 TDs  of Oklahoma State. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 11-3 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATSin road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 60-20 ATS sicne 1992 for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover

USC will be shorthanded offensively because of the portal transfer ,  but will still have  four-star QB under center along with a large group of tainted offensive players who I expect to take this opportunity to showcase their talents. Defensively Im also betting the Trojans stop units will once again struggle vs a Louisville side that can score in bunches. (Note: Trojans rank :Trojans defense ranks just 122nd in EPA per play and 118th in explosiveness) Yes on the flip side the Cardinal D has shown some staunch efforts overall but have also been torched,Georgia Tech (34 points, 488 yards ), Virginia (24 points, 434 yards ), Miami (31 points, 486 yards ), and Kentucky (38 points)

I project at least 28 points for the Trojans -Note: USC is 7-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points this season with a combined average of 83.7 ppg scored.

LOUISVILLE is 9-1 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 70.2 ppg scored. 

USC is 15-4 OVER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.1 ppg scored.USC is 15-3 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 75.9 ppg scored. 

Play over

USC is 12-3 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored.

These teams West Virginia and North Carolina feature two key missing parts. The Mountaineers will be without starting C Zach Frazier who is out due to surgery. Meanwhile, North Carolina, will be without star QB Drake Maye  who opted out for the NFL draft. Both may have problems moving the ball consistently though the air because of this will Im betting  instead pound the ball on the ground consistently behind very strong running games. The Mounties have a trio of strong backs,  QB Garrett Green ,.J. Donaldson, and  Jaheim White  while, Tar Heels exhibit  RB Omarion Hampton who had 1442 yars of production. From my projected perspective this will be a grinding game that could easily be decided by one score, thus making the underdog value a very viable proposition. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. W VIRGINIA is 1-12 ATS   as a neutral field favorite since 1992. West Virginia is also s 0-11 ATS as a bowl favorite. 

N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS  in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season 

CFB Neutral field favorites (W VIRGINIA) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Fav has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 Duke's Mayo Bowl confrontations. 

Play on North Carolina to cover

So Tulanes HC Willie Fritz is gone to Houston along with a few assistants , but is that enough to sway this line in that big of a direction vs a side like Tulane that has won 24 of their L/27 games overall. Im betting no. This is a viable Tulane team, that is in my opinion being vastly under rated and deserve respect here getting points. The Green Wave are 11-2 on the season , while the VTech Hokies are just 6-6 on the season, and just 2-4 away from home. Just have to take the points here as the line seems bloated. VIRGINIA TECH is 2-11 ATS L/13  in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games . Also VTech won their last game of the season vs Virginia, but in the past thats not a good omen for their betting backers as they are 1-10 ATS L/11 coming off a victory as a fav (which they were).

Play on Tulane to cover