The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over  12 straight times  when they are off a defeat when  facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than  31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting  will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. 

 Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the OVER 

 USC needed two touchdowns in the final three minutes,  and a successful onside kick, to sneak past Arizona State 28-27 on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Trojans' four turnovers and three failed fourth-down tries  sort of told the tale of this game, but now with a game under their belt Im betting their ability to not lose the ball will improve as will their D and overall play. Considering this is Arizonas first game, Im betting the Wildcats D, will be more acclimated to in game conditions than the offense that will exhibit rust and also solid competition to contend wit, this hindering their flow. . This Im betting results in a combined score that that stays on the low side of the total. 

My projections estimate that we have value with a under wager in a game I have pegged at 63 on the total. 

Under is 29-14-1 in Trojans last 44 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

USC is 0-11 L/11 UNDER  as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they trailed at halftime. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

Play UNDER

  Toledo and Western Michigan own run heavy offenses that operate at a much slower tempo  than the most of the  FBS.Western Michigan didn’t allow a single pass over 15 yards, in their first game, meanwhile, the Toledo  defense  kept Bowling Green below a single point per trip inside the 40-yard line and recorded a  grade of 15th in the country in tackling and coverage. With that said, Im expecting these two MAC contenders to take part in a hard fought physical battle that sees a less combined point score than the linesmakers number suggests .Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Bowling Greens  QB  Matt McDonald went 8-of-30 with two interceptions in his first game of the season with his team scoring just one FG in a 38-3 loss. Bowling Green made seven incursions past the Toledo 40-yard line  and could only muster 3 points and Im betting things do not get much better this week vs Kent State side that  ranks second overall in the  Havoc ratings and has shown a propensity not to miss many tackles. There will be some winds tonight gusting up to 23 plus miles per hr and criss crossing the field which will make moving the chains difficult for both sides. 

Under is 14-3 in Golden Flashes last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a road favorite.

Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 conference games. Under is 11-4 in Falcons last 15 games as an underdog.Under is 14-4 in Falcons last 18 games on fieldturf. Under is 12-4 in Falcons last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Play on the UNDER 

The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in  third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they  run the ball recording a  50.1% clock consuming  average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping  the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number.

These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. 

NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER

Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. 

 Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER  when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. 

 The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500.

Play UNDER 

True freshman quarterback Ken Seals  is the real deal and uptrending after hitting on 67 percent of his passes so far.  The kid had a big game against  Ole Miss, passing 31-of-40 for 319 yards for an efficiency 155.9 and now against a much better defence will have the needed reps to get some more positive work in and bolster the confidence of the offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores Defense  is ranked  108th in the country  in total defense, giving up 499.0 yards per game. So Im betting they do some damage but also give up a boatload full of points. So despite of Miss States inconsistent offence Im betting they finally pound away today with non stop attack as the pent up demand for scores is unleashed. The above combination will result in a fairly high scoring affair as compared to the totals number being offered. 

Vanderbilt is 14-0 OVER L/14 as a dog coming off a game as a dog where they lost by at least 14 points with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored with none of the games in this subset failing to eclipse this totals number.  

Play OVER

BYU QB Wilson has completed 74.6 percent of his passes this season  including  2,152 passing yards and 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Meanwhile, Boise State rank top-10 nationally in Finishing Drives, red zone efficiency, completion percentage and interception rate. Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) during its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). Everything points to a high scoring back and forth affair on the speedy Blue turf. 

Play OVER

Both these teams have started slowly offensively in their games this season, and Im betting that trend continues here tonight which will contribute to a lower scoring game the linesmakers number suggests. Both these sides have shown decent offense but its the defenses that have shined..Both defenses rank top-10 in Finishing Drives. San Jose State has allowed 6 and 21 points respectively in their two tilts and San Diego State has allowed just 6 and 7 points respectively. 

The Aztecs defense is ranked No.1  in the country in defending expected points through the air and rank first in the nation  in defensive Havoc and third-place rank in opponent passing Success Rate. San Diego State defense ranks top-10 in Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and PFF coverage grade.

San Jose State has allowed their opposition  to score a minuscule 1.8 points per trip inside the 40-yard line.

From a offensive perspective and considering SD State has  called 65% rushing plays with a pace of 78th in FBS it wont be surprised if they use a run heavy option here tonight. On the flip side with San Jose State Im betting their success rate moving the ball will be limited via the ground game as they  rank second-to-last in Rushing Success Rate and Explosiveness and through the air they take on hard core secondary. So the above combination has me leaning heavily on a low scoring tilt. 

Under is 36-17-1 in Aztecs last 54 home games.Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Rams defense looked very vulnerable last week , especially  against the pass. Fresno State QB Jake Haener carved up the  Colorado State secondary, throwing for 311 yards and three scores while averaging 14.1 yards per completion and Im betting they get torched again this week by a Wyoming offense that is off scoring 25 points in the 2nd half of their last game and up-trending with flow. Meanwhile, Colorado State after starting slowly in their first game in the season vs Fresno State  will be primed to bounce back here vs a D that maybe a little over rated considering the accolades they are getting for stuffing a revamped Hawaii offense that was playing the 2nd end of back to back road trips. The kids from Hawaii looked tired. Tonight with the weather looking perfect for fall football ,  no rain or snow expected ,  light winds and comfortable temps this game looks set to eclipse the total. 

Play OVER 

The Aggies are off to a  0-2 start and cant afford to go 0-3 and  really have to open things up in liberal fashion and cant afford to just play a conservative game. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack behind a offense that averages, 37 ppg, and ranking 13th in FBS in total offense, averaging 496 yards per game for 7.47 yards per play should be able to eclipse that mark vs a Aggies D, that has allowed an average of 40 points per game thus far while  ranking  98th in FBS in total defense, allowing 510 yards per game, and 6.94 yards per play.  My projections estimate the Wolfpack should eclipse the 45 point plateau while Utah State fires back  in wide open fashion, as they play for their proverbial play off lives . 

 The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring  tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more  are 19-55-1  to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 
 

The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. 

Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Kansas State is 11-0-1 OVER as a dog coming off a home game where they covered by 14+ points. 

Tulsa is proving that their defense is of the top notch variety at all three levels and Im betting the visiting Pirates have a hard time putting points on the board here today. The Canes have already held Oklahoma State and USF to 13 and 16 points respectively. Tulsa is 83rd in FBS with 65.7 ppg and run their offense at a lower than average pace. What Im betting on here is for Tulsa to grind away on E.Carolina to roll to a victory, but in more conservative fashion than the lines-makers expect as compared to what my projections say is a bloated total. 

Play UNDER 

These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at  23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides  finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on  each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the  Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina  Panthers ranking 21st.

My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight  against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the  Bears offense  without  Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams  run defense  but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams  combined for an average 22.5 points per game  total the last two meetings. 

Bears are 0-13-1  UNDER L/14  off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. 

Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.

The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER  at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the  scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while  the Steelers have averaged  31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit  13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their  possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13).

Play OVER 

The Cougars are averaging 3.2 sacks per game, which is 15th-best in the nation. They have 16 sacks through five games. Im betting Texas States offense ill have issues flowing in this tilt. BYU’s defense is allowing 14 points per game. Meanwhile, after annihilating Houston on the road last week Im betting this will be a game where alot of starters get rested as they game progresses, as bigger fish are on deck. This Im betting results in a more muted effort offensively from the Cougars in a game that they will use like a week off. 

TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the board. TEXAS ST is 13-3 UNDER L/16 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 50.2 ppg. TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.9 ppg going on the board.

BYU is 0-13-1 UNDER as a favorite coming off a game where they covered by at least five points with the highest combined score total coming in at 59 points and. the overall combined average score clicking in at 41.9 ppg.BYU is 7-0 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Knights behind the big arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who became the first UCF signal-caller to throw for over 500 yards last Saturday against Memphis Im betting will once again be ready to explode on offense vs a suspect Tulane D. Meanwhile, Tulane also has a top tier dual threat QB in Michael Pratt who Im betting will also tee off on a UCF D that ranks 74th in total defense out of 77 FBS teams. 

Play on the OVER 

Tulsa’s showing us a strong defensive structure this season . Ranking third in Havoc ratings lead by Linebacker Zaven Collins who has  owned the opposition with three sacks, three hurries and a top-10 tackles for loss  On the flipside, the Canes offense  has been below average ranking in the bottom 10 in Success Rate with a Finishing Drives rank of 63rd. .Meanwhile, USF  while trying to move at an accelerated pace offense , still have huge problems as their  Offensive Finishing Drives rank a lowly 75th. Thats not a good omen for Bulls fluidity against a  Tulsa defense that  allows just three points per trip in past the 40-yard line. All in all my projections estimate a total closer to 46 whihc gives us great value on a under wager. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TULSA) - off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 or more, in weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 UNDER L/28 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v

KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs.

BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  45 ppg going on the board. 

NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC action this Saturday in a game I have projected to eclipse this total. Ill state the obvious by saying that both teams possess explosive offenses with the Tide averaging 51 ppg and the Dawgs 36 ppg, and despite of viable defenses, it will take a boat load full of points for one of these teams to come out on top here, with OT also being  a higher percentage possibility. These teams have seen the over eclisped in 8 of their L/10 meetings and last year they took part in a tilt that combined for 63 points. Rinse and repeat folks. 

ALABAMA is 11-3 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.

Smart is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 67.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ explosive  offense will  be in tough here against the Georgia State Panthers’ top tier  defense. My projections say they will have success , but not on par with the linesmakers estimates. Yes both teams run fast paced offences, but the totals number, is just a tad high considering one of these sides defence is of the top tier variety Note:Georgia State  ranks second in the nation in defensive Havoc and has registered 17 tackles for a loss. Georgia State, ranks first in Stuff Rate, Power Success and against pass explosiveness. Im betting the Panthers dont make life easy for the Red Wolves, and their 50/50 attack might turn to the run more often and eat clock time  because of the problems that the Panthers secondary will provide. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers expect. 

GEORGIA ST is 7-0 UNDER  in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored.GEORGIA ST is 10-1 UNDER  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 48 ppg going on the score board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARKANSAS ST/GEORGIA ST) - when playing on a Thursday are 48-18   UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

In a battle of two undefeated teams, Im betting we see a closely contested affair that is conservative in nature. Neither of these teams plays to tempo. For example :UL Lafayette's offense  averages 26 seconds per play while  Coastal Carolina moves at a snails pace behind one the slowest offenses in the nation at 30.2 seconds per play.  

The Ragin’ Cajuns have had alot of problems converting opportunity into points, with a Finishing Drives rank of 70th in the nation. Meanwhile, UL Lafayette's under appreciated  defense has  done a fantastic job of limiting explosive plays, ranking seventh in opposition plays from scrimmage of  plus 20 yards. 

Everything for me points to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. My projections estimate this total closer to 56 which gives credence to my recommended  under bet. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Miami QB Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions, tied for third most in the NFL. His passer rating ranks 28th and now this week I expect he will be out to protect the ball and make shorter smarter passes buoyed by his teams running game which Im betting eats up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Niners struggled on the offensive line last week, allowing 16 pressures, which is not a good omen for offensive flow here today. With that said, Im betting this number is just a bit bloated and should be closer to 47.5/ giving us value to the under. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he does play will be less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 34-19 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 27-10 L/37 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 

Play on the UNDER

 QB Skylar Thompson's arm injury is not as bad  as had earlier been anticipated and he will probably play and if he does not Will Howard who is extremely capable will admirably fill in. Kansas State has proven they can move the ball and Im betting they do it again today vs a TCU D in a letdown spot after a big win vs Texas last time out. On the flip side, the Frogs can also light up the board , behind QB   Duggan, a sophomore, who has thrown for 472 yards and three touchdown. Patterson is 20-9 OVER after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of TCU with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored.

Kansas State is 19-0-1 OVER L/20 dating back to the  2006 season as a dog of at least three points coming off a home game where they allowed at least two points fewer than expected with a combined  average of 69.6 ppg scored with none of the 20 tilts seeing less a combined score at less than this total. 

Play OVER 

Tom Brady and company have accumulated a whopping 97 points (32.3 points per game) in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Knowing this Im betting on the Bears coming up with a very conservative game plan here on the road and try to slow this tilt down to a crawl. Note: With Tarik Cohen  out for season  the Bears offense in no way behind QB Foles is going to be fluid. (The Bears ran for just 28 yards last week) Also with Buccaneers WRs Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) missing this week TBs offense may not be as fluid. 

CHICAGO is 12-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

My numbers suggest this total should be closer to 54.5. So when looking at this game and trying to dissect value I see the under as a viable wager. This is Houstons first game of the season, and Im betting their offensive flow will be less than fluent out of the gate. Meanwhile, as is almost always the case defenses have an edge in preparedness early on in a teams season, I can see Houston ready to play on that front with 93% production back from last season on the defensive side of the ball. Also look for  Tulane to pound the ball on the ground and to eat up plenty of clock time. The Green Wave have rushed on more than 52% of its plays and its become obvious to me QB Keon Howard is not a guy to go to the air much, giving credence to a much more subdued offensive performance. In 57 passes Howard has yet to throw a TD pass and has complete just 48% off 44 drops backs. 

Play on the UNDER

I know we have to good QBs on the field today with Carr and Allen taking snaps, but because of this and some recency bias we have a total that is bloated and only good for public consumption. 

BUFFALO is 9-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 30.2 ppg scored. McDermott is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 33 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LAS VEGAS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides Air Force and Navy key on running the ball which grinds down alot of clock time. Both sides also know how to defend against the run especially from a similar opponent like they will face today. This adds up to a tilt that Im betting lands under this totals number.  It must be noted  that in  games involving two of the three service academy programs a 35-9-1 record to the under has been registered for a  80% conversion rate.

Last time out Navy made a huge comeback to win 27-24 after being down 24-0 at the half. Now in a huge letdown situation and rusty after a extended two week break Im also betting their offense has another Narcoleptic episode.   Niumatalolo is 17-3 UNDER  after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of NAVY. Also Niumatalolo is 20-4 UNDER in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of NAVY while averaging just 19.8 ppg on offense. 

Play UNDER 

Denver and the NY Jets have showed very little flow on offence this season. Denver ranks 30th in DVOA and the NY Jets ranks 31st in DVOA. Both sides have offensive ,line and QB issues, not a good recipe for a high scoring affair, which favors the under.  

 DENVER is 6-0 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.2 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 33.9 ppg scored. 

NY JETS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 33 ppg going on the score board. 

NFL Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight losses by 10 or more points are 26-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Both teams have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line and because of this Im betting offensive flow will be hampered here this week. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 40.4 ppg.  PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Pederson is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 35.8 ppg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 24-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence  and scored just 6 points  in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at  4.4 yards per play  and just  13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number.

Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. 

Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. 

Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

New York has revamped one of the NFL's worst defenses under new coordinator Pat Graham. Defence will now be their priority behind what is expected to be a slower paced offence that will key on using  RB  Barkley  to move the chains consistently.  Meanwhile ,the Steelers Im betting will have flow problems behind the wobbled Roethlisberger who returns after another season of injuries. It must also be noted The Steelers led the NFL with 54 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries and 38 takeaways last season, finishing ranked fifth overall on defense and that will Im betting remain consistent in a tilt I have projected to stay under the the total. 

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

The Texas State offense might have struggled late in their 31-24 loss to SMU, but it pounded out five yards per carry.  Calvin Hill ran for 100 yards and Im betting on more of that today behind a offense that will have the rust off. Meanwhile, the D gave up 544 yards of offense and UTSA also has the guns to do some offensive damage here in this spot totals play that projects a score in the high 50s.  

TEXAS ST is 22-9 OVER  after playing a non-conference game since 1992 with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

With some game time PTSD , permeating the sidelines of the Chiefs as they remember going down 21-0 to this same Texas team in last years play offs before mounting a huge comeback win . Now with that in mind Im betting the Chiefs to be primed for a  fast start and build a substantial lead.  At that point QB Mahomes would be directed by Reids side line coaching crew to take the foot off the  proverbial pedal and for the Chiefs defense  to go hog wild on  Deshaun Watson as he is forced to open up and  go down field. 

Reid is 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average score of 40.1 ppg scored and  is 15-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily  tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in  less first downs and offensive flow and that  will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. 

SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t  have  gone under at a  36-22-1 clip  including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL  play off games  games have  been going under more often than not  notching a  75-56-4  UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and  public perceptions.  

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored.  

KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Two top tier football programs with hardcore discipline go head to head in the FCS championship game. This game sees North Dakota States 33-1 SU play off record on the line . ( interestingly enough the only loss came against James Madison).  Bottom line is Im betting the total is a better investment option than what my projections estimate is a coin flip game. 

I cannot see either quarterback carving up the others secondary, and I also expect for both running games to falter against staunch front 7s. Im betting both sides have moderate grinding success moving the ball between the 30s but when it comes to finishing drives  we will see what hardcore defence is all about. Both these sides are tough as nails and rarely make mistakes, which bolsters my under wager . 

Play UNDER 

LendingTree Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Miami O offence just cannot generrate consistent flow and the Redhawks rank outside the top 100 in quarterback passer rating, line yards and finishing drives. The RedHawks offence or lack ther off will go against a   UL Lafayette group that ranks top 20 in defensive finishing drives, which is not a good omen for ouptut conversion rate when entering the red zone. Something Im betting the Redhawks dont do much of today aqnyway. On the other side, of the ball, Miami Os defence is very capable and physical for a MAC team and have the ability to slow down the Cajuns explosive attack. Note: Miami 0 is ranked 26th in the nation defensive havoc. 

Both punt units rank to 20 in the nation, so field postion will also hinder offences if expected averages continue --which the odds say are highly likey. 

What Im betting on here is a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

In Miami Os last L/12 non conference games a combined average of 51.1 have been scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI OHIO) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 38-10 UNDER L/27 seasomns for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER  in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total)

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

Play UNDER

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

Mac Jones,  Alabamas new  No. 1 quarterback , has completed 69.8 percent of his 166 pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns, after taking over from the injured Tua Tagovailoa .Jones has dynamic receivers to target, including DeVonta Smith (65 catches, 1,200 yards, 13 TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (71 catches, 959 yards, 9 TDs) and is more than capable of helping his team pile up points vs a Michigan team that showed themselves defensively porous at times against top tier teams like Ohio State this season.( Ohio State smashed the Wolverines by a 57-29 count). Meanwhile, Michigan can also fire back with some offensive firepower of their own,  with Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson who has thrown 22 touchdown passes and scored five more on the ground this season. I expect some big plays and scores by the Wolf man and crew vs one of Alabamas most mediocre defences in years. LSU pounded Alabama for 46 points in 46-41 win towards the end of this season.  Truth is I smell fire works about to be lit here today and a game that features alot of points . MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 63.9 ppg scored. ALABAMA is 11-2 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 66.7 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ALABAMA/MICHIGAN) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

 Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

The Kansas State Wildcats and  Navy Midshipman are not quite identical but   they do both like to dominate time of possession. The Wildcats rank fourth in the country in that stat, holding the ball for an average of 34:16 per game while  Navy owns a  33:14 time of possession . That means the Mids can count on getting fewer snaps then usual , as is the case when Army goes against Navy. With that said, Im betting on a grinding game that has both sides ground attack eating up precious clock time and keeping this combined score on the low side of the total. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 47.1 ppg going on the board. 

NAVY is 33-15 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (NAVY) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-15 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 59-25 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Redbox Bowl - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Illinois when they faced a team similar to California in the regular season, saw a game that saw  them beat  Michigan State  37-34  on Nov. 9. Im betting the Illini  very capable offense to once again do some damage here today, while their sometimes porous D to part like Moses parting the Red Sea. It must be noted that Californias last 4 games, all saw a combined point total that eclipsed this number. My projections make this line Total closer to 47 thus giving us one possession value on the over. Note: HC Wilcox in in 36 lined games as the coach of CALIFORNIA has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky's offense is efficient and were uptrending towards the end of the season averaging more than 37.4 ppg in their L/3 tilts. The Hilltoppers are  led by running back Gaej Walker, who collected 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per carry. Quarterback Ty Storey who started nine games at Arkansas last season before transferring , has completed 70.7 percent of his 294 passes for 2,209 yards, 12 touchdowns and matches up well vs W.Michigans inconsistent secondary and a D that has allowed an average of 36.5 ppg on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Western Michigan is also very capable offensively behind Running back LeVante Bellamy who has accumulated  1,412 rushing yards and is tied for the national lead with 23 rushing touchdowns, and  Quarterback Jon Wassink who was a third-team All-MAC selection, throwing for 2,904 yards, with 19 touchdowns. Western Michigan in games played on turf have scored an average of 36 ppg. Everything points to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

W KENTUCKY is 17-6 OVER L/23 after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored. 

W MICHIGAN in their L/6  road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s  tilts involving 2 above .500  sides  are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. 

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0  L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board.

NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

CFB Playoff - Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Plenty off offence here, but what stands out about both Clemson and Ohio State is what amounts to be some of the physical defences in the nation.The Tigers are ranked  first in scoring defense (10.6) and first in total defense (244.7). haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game this season and Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (12.5) and second in total defense in the nation. With that said, Im betting we have a rockem sockem nasty in the trenches defensive slugfest today and what could easily be the national championship game. 

CLEMSON is 50-21 UNDER L/71 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.9 ppg scored. 

OHIO ST is 30-16 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 42.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CLEMSON) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 48-15 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 CFB Playoff - Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - ATLANTA, GA

 LSU  is third in the country in scoring (47.8) and first in yards (554.3)..The Sooners rank just behind the Tigers with averages of 43.2 points and 554.2 yards.The  Sooners  have scored 28 or more points in each of their last 51 games. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (out-gaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 36-10 OVERv L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Neutral field teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU/OKLAHOMA) - when playing on a Saturday are 30-10 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Oklahoma State's offense features the nation's leading rusher in sophomore back Chuba Hubbard. He ran for 1,936 yards on 309 carries (6.8 yards per carry) in the regular season. So Im betting they pound away on the ground today, and eat up clock time. Meanwhile, the Texas A&M D, allowed 12 rushing touchdowns all year, so output projections are low according to my estimates. The Aggies have played one of the more difficult schedules in the country. And have  battled Auburn, Alabama and LSU  and Georgia, so slowing down Oklahoma State offence will not be an extremely difficult task, while their own offence has been less than cohesive this season. This combination of projected scenarios makes for a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER  L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Boise State has averaged 39.7 ppg on offence when travelling this season, and Im betting they do a fair amount of damage here today vs a downtrodden Huskies side, that had expected better results this season. Meanwhile, Washington in 9 games played on turf this season have averaged 34 ppg and have enough offensive weapons to answer back against the Broncos.  BOISE ST is 10-0 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with a combined average of 76.3 ppg scored. Harsin is 12-4 OVER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of BOISE ST with the combined average score of 70.1 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

 C.Michigan have scored 45 or more points in 3 of their L/5 games, and despite of playing a very strong D here today, Im betting they will do enough damage to get this combined score over the total. Meanwhile, San Diego State despite of not being a strong offensive team, will also have to open up here a bit today , because as I mentioned above their going to get pierced for points more than usual. If Central Michigan has a weakness its this D, which is allowing 34. 8 ppg on the road. 

C MICHIGAN in their L/6  vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season with a  combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning are 38-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Two red hot  offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th.  The Buccaneers  have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of  61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored.

The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight  away  tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are  6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. 

Play OVER 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Im betting on  a ok corral type blastem up offensive gunfight here in Texas this Friday between two teams with alot of offensive fire power capabilities. 

Utah State junior quarterback Jordan Love after passing for 8,283 yards and 57 touchdowns in three seasons with the Aggies, will be ready to showcase his talents for the upcoming NFL draft. QUOTE:"Knowing that it's my last game here as an Aggie, wearing that uniform, it's really important for me to just go out there and ball out," Love said, "and have fun with my brothers this last time." END QUOTE. Love has completed 263-of-434 passes for 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns this season and more of the same is on tap today vs a Kent State team allowing more than 34.6 ppg away from home this season. Meanwhile, duel threat Kent State QB Junior quarterback Dustin Crum led the Golden Flashes in passing and rushing, throwing for 2,336 yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for 560 yards and five more scores and will once again Im betting take advantage of a Aggies D, that is less than strong allowing 31 + ppg on the road this season. With that said,  I expect both sides to surpass their offensive and defensive averages this season in an entertaining free for all offensive slugfest.  

Lewis in 9 games when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of KENT ST has seen a combined average of 66.9 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (UTAH ST/KENT ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 44-16 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg  going on the scoreboard in their  L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a   Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg .

The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona  team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said,    I expect both teams to do  fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting  goes over the total. 

The Cards will playing their  2nd game straight game  vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd  of back-to-back  non conference games are 13-0 OVER. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on OVER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The mighty Ravens played a pretty good defence last week vs the Buffalo Bills and still were able to notch 24 points. I know that was a hard fought game and LeMar Jackson is experiencing some quad problems, but he is still set to to go , and extremely dangerous from a offensive standpoint. I know the Ravens have a couple big games to finish off this season, and some might think they are over looking the Jets. However , Harbaughs team has been full tilt since the preseason, and Im betting they bring it here tonight again and really light up the scoreboard for a national audience. They just don't lighten up, and that has me on the over. 

Note: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robby Anderson are establishing a solid connection late in the season for a second straight year and Im betting they do more damage offensively than many might expect , which also help us cash an over wager here this evening. 

Ravens are 6-1 OVER L/7 vs AFC East and have gone over 5 of 6 times in Thursday nighter  vs non-division opposition. 

Play OVER 

These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging  20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19  ppg in their L/6 overall tilts.  In their most  recent  five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. 

CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN

Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) leads the nation in points per game (49.9) and there maybe only one other team in the nation that can slow down this incredible offensive juggernaut and Wisconsin is not that team. With that said, I look for Wisconsin to try to reply with as much fire power through the air as they can muster, because running against one of the nations nastiest front 7 is a night mare, as was the case for star Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor in two previous encounters vs the Buckeyes including one this season when they lost 38-7. No way I can see them repeating that mistake as their only chance at victory is moving the ball downfield via their aerial attack, which in turn will open this game up and easily help it eclipse this total. 

 OHIO ST is 11-2 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC

Clemson Im betting will do their part here today, behind an explosive offence that averages 45.2 ppg.On the flip side,  I know Clemson has allowed only six touchdown passes all season but what is  important here in factoring in Virginias offensive production is that the Tigers have  not faced a dual threat quite like UVA senior quarterback Bryce Perkins, who leads the ACC and ranks 13th nationally in total offense (3,636 yards). He was responsible for 475 of the Cavaliers' 492 yards against the Hokies when he played them, and has the ability to make Clemsons D work harder than usual. 

Note: CLEMSON in their L/14 tilts vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons have scored average of 44.6 ppg. Meanwhile   CLEMSON L/140 games when they score 28 or more points have seen a combined average of 60 ppg go on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CLEMSON) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 OVER  L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX

No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12 play) and No. 7 Baylor (11-1, 8-1) will square off for all the marbles on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in a game I have pegged to be all out offensive rodeo affair.  I know Baylor is a top tier defensive side, but the Sooners can score on any team with a rapid fire run and gun offence that features the  Big 12's top scoring offense (44.3 points per game; No. 5 nationally)   The Sooners also rank first in the country in total offense (564.3 yards per game). To beat the Sooners Baylor is thus going to have to open up and respond with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the field. The Bears can do that vs a Sooner D, that ha shown some weaknesses this season, as was the case vs Iowa State allowing 41 points and Kstate allowing 48 points in their game against Baylor 31 points in a game that saw 65 totals points scored.

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 85.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Green Bays D looked bad last week when they allowed 37 points to the 49ers in a loss. It must be noted that Game 15 or  less conference chalk who allowed 35+ points on the road last week like Green Bay did are  1-16 UNDER L/4 seasons when the Total is listed at  49 points or less. Im betting last weeks ugly defensive effort was an anomaly and that the Packers concentrate on shoring up their defence vs a rookie signal caller and a team averaging just 19.7 ppg on offence this season. 

Meanwhile, the Packers offence also struggled, as Rodgers was sacked five times on Sunday night. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his right knee and left the game. Alex Light replaced him but struggled. so offensive line issues could once again make things tough on Rodgers here in NY vs the Gmen this Sunday. This limiting GBs offensive output. 

Both these teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in offence and today Im betting we see why. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - with a terrible passing D - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars got blasted last week by a 42-20 count at Tennessee. However is must be noted Jacksonville is 0-5 UNDER aft division road tilt and 1-7 L/8  UNDER after allowing  35 or more. pts . I know that this week they go against an explosive TB offence, but it must also be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  just 30 ppg going on the board. 

The Jaguars have been crushed on the ground the last three games, allowing more than 200 yards rushing against Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. It was the fourth time in the last seven games an opponent topped 200 yards rushing against Jacksonville, a franchise record. Knowing this Im betting the Bucs will be pounding the ball on the ground alot today, in attempt to exploit the Jags major weakness, which in turn will eat alot of clock time which will effect the overall output of this tilt to the under.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, in December games are 30-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 28-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Until last week against the Pats top tier defence the Cowboys offence was on a roll, scoring 35 or more points in 3 of 4 games. After regressing last week in a 13-9 slugest, facing the Bills will not seem like such a big challenge and Im expecting some conclusive output here by the Cowboys in place where they have averaged 30+ ppg this season. Meanwhile, defensively the Cowboys are now battered and bruised after the heavy battle last week and wont be as resistant to the Bills run game. Note: Garrett is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of DALLAS with . combined average of 54 points going on the board while the Boyz D allowed 28 points during that 9 game stretch. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. are 73-31 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Niners / Packers enter into this fray having had a recent history of fairly high scoring affairs with   6 of the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total, with an combined average of 50 ppg scored .  It must be noted that NFL games involving two top tier sides with a  .700 or better win percentage are  a  perfect 8-0 OVER L/8   in any game past week 8 ( 8 games played ) during the regular season! With QBs Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers throwing the rock Im betting on  a tilt that goes over this number. Both sides, have surprisingly bad defensive rush numbers against with GB ranking 27th  and  the 49ers 26th against the run. that will see both sides pound the ball, on the ground which in turn will open up the field for play action which I'm betting  will result in big plays and a lot of scores. I know sometimes we try to read between the lines, and not trust our instincts , however, this is a tilt that smells like a blood bath for the books as sharps and the public will pound this number  over at the current offering. 

Play OVER 

  Eastern Michigan  has shown itself to have a porous D, but N.Illinois is highly inconsistent and if it were not for big plays they would be a stagnant offence. Eastern Michigan’s defense  has limited big plays  bad,  ranking  43rd in defending explosive plays. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is strong at controlling opposing run games, but weak in the secondary, however, Eastern Michigan has not been consistent through the air, even though their numbers look decent . Overall, the combination of the above factors have me taking an under stance here on a slightly bloated total. Note: N ILLINOIS is 33-17 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game . N ILLINOIS is 11-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (E MICHIGAN) - good passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 45-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Mexico

KC has shown itself to be vulnerable against viable ground attacks of late and currently rank   31 st in defensive run success rate and because of this I expect the Chargers will focus on their run game to move the chains and eat clock time . This strategy will keep the Chiefs star QB Mahomes out of his flow and off the field for long chunks of time which Im betting equates to a lower scoring grinding affair than the public expects. Note: LA CHARGERS is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5  or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board. 

LA CHARGERS is 15-4 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored.

NFL Division games with high totals ( 44+) have gone under at a 180-109-3 62% clip since the 2003 season. 

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate . 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 46-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Atlanta  is off a top tier defensive effort last time out holding the  Saints  on the road to only 310 total yards   in a surprisingly dominate  26-9 road win. Now in a divisional battle they take on a Carolina  team that they have a history of playing low scoring grinding games  against with 9 of the L/11 staying UNDER the total. with a combined average of 39.5 ppg game going on the board.  At this time of the season, from a historical stand point it must be noted that the  UNDER in NFL division games when each team has played 10 games  has cashed 21 of the L/24 times since 2008  and has cashed 10 straight times overall  when  the total is 44 points or more. .It must also be note that  the Panthers have gone under in 26 of their L/30 games dating back to 1999 as division  home chalk  of 10 points or less.

ATLANTA is 10-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 8-0 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 36-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Gators smashed  visiting Vanderbilt 56-0 last weekend, and come in here with revenge on their minds for losses to Missouri in each of the past two seasons. The Tigers won 45-16 at home in 2017 before prevailing 38-17 in The Swamp last season. However, this Gators team is different from those groups, as this team can put points up in bunches averaging 33.3 ppg. Today I expect very little mercy from Florida as they pile up the points, and for Missouri to finally wake up from a recent ugly 3 game road trip where their usually efficient offence went to sleep. Here at home where the Tigers thrive ( 5-0) Missouri has averaged 40.4 ppg and a rebound is expected as QB Kelly Bryant returns to the lineup.  (The graduate transfer from Clemson missed last week's loss at Georgia after suffering a hamstring injury two weeks earlier at Kentucky.)Bryant has completed 140 of 225 passes (62.2 percent) for 1,845 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games this season. 

Note: My projections estimate that Florida will score 28+ points. FLORIDA is 7-0 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.2 ppg going on the score board.

Offensively, Florida averages 419.5 yards (ranked 56th nationally), while Missouri is at 402.9 yards per game (72nd nationally).

FLORIDA is 6-0 OVER as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

 Pittsburgh at home this season has averaged just 19.1 ppg on offence with the Defense allowing just 20.8 ppg. Pittsburgh has set the pace of late, and Im betting nothing changes here this week vs North Carolina in what Im betting will be grinding affair. 

N CAROLINA is 22-9 UNDER  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46 ppg scored. 

 teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 69-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Kent State enters this game against Buffalo showing signs of improvement on offence, and overall have averaged 34.7 ppg at home this season behind the arm of QB Duston Crumb and viable run game. Meanwhile the Flashes  D, especially their run defence, has been a shambles , allowing 300+ yards to Toledo last week, and ranking  123rd in opponent rushing success rate. Buffalo’s rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in success rate Im betting has a big day , and that in turn will open up more downfield options and big plays for the Bulls. Look for both sides to light up the board tonight in MAC action. 

BUFFALO is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 9-0 OVER  after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Im betting this divisional rivalry will be a hard fought fairly low scoring battle. I know Seattle has shown itself to have a some problems in the secondary , and that many believe that Jimmy G, can take advantage of them, but with his most dynamic offensive weapon, tight end George Kittle,  banged up with a knee issue spreading the field could be an issue. On the other side of the ball, SF has shown issues stopping the run, and Seattle should be out looking to take advantage of this which will keep the clock ticking when the Seahawks have the ball. This above combination will help keep this combined score to the low side of the number. 

SEATTLE in their L/6 road  games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 season have seen a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored. HC Carroll  in 14  road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE has seen a combined average of 42 ppg going on the score board.

Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 Monday games.

Under is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 L/27 UNDER in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with a combined average of 40.8 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a terrible defense (370 or more YPG) after 8+ games are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

There is value here on the under according to my projections which make this game total closer to 64 than the current number of 69. WE all know how explosive UCFs offence is, but Tulsa  behind a much  improved 3-3-5 defense that ranks 22nd in opponent passing success rate  and  ranks 29th in opponent red zone scoring and will  not be easily stomped on. This Im betting cues the total towards the under. Note:UCF i L/15  road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) has seen a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. Also Philip is 9-1 UNDER in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of TULSA with a combined average score of 59.2 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

 Miami has proven highly inconsistent of offense ranking 126th in rushing success rate and 116th in passing success rate. Meanwhile, Ohio's offence generates it most effective results when they run the ball, and today I expect that to be their main modus operandi , which in turn will keep the clock ticking . The above combination Im betting results in a score that remains on the low side of this total . 

MIAMI OHIO is 31-10 UNDER struggling  defensive teams - allowing 425  or more yards/game with a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OHIO U) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 In the recent past when top tier teams do battle the OVER has hit 10 straight times dating back to last season  when the  teams involved own  .700 or better record on the campaign  , and the  Total is is 41 or more  points. The combined average combined score of these tilts has clicked in at  67.5  points per game!  

The Ravens have gone over in 5 straight vs NFC East and have gone over in 6 of their L/7  as 3 or more point dogs.

 Harbaugh is 10-1 OVER  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 48.3 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG are 39-13 OVER 36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

New Orleans beat Arizona handily 31-9 last week. San Francisco had Sunday’s most lopsided victory, defeating Carolina 51-13. Tonight Im betting on SF regressing offensively, after last weeks explosive output , while their own top tier D continues to thrive. The Niners are ranked 2nd in the league in ppg allowed at 11. San Francisco has surrendered 23 total points in their last four games. Note:The last two meetings here in Arizona between these two teams have seen 33 combined points scored both times by identical 18-15 scores favoring Arizona. 

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 30-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

No. 12 Baylor sits on top of the Big 12 standings and will be rested and ready when it hosts struggling West Virginia on Thursday night in Waco, Texas.

West Virginia has scored just 14 points in back to back games and  regressing offensively. Tonight Im betting they will once again have issues getting scores behind inconsistent QB Austin Kendall  against a well rested Baylor D, that is allowing just 19.1 ppg on the season.

Under is 10-3 in Bears last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Under is 13-4 in Bears last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 conference games.

Under is 9-3 in Mountaineers last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 Thursday games.

W VIRGINIA is 21-8 UNDER L/29  in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 with the average combined score of 48.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in passer rating and Im betting things are not going to get any better tonight, as their offence will flounder against a capable D.  Meanwhile, with Steelers, QB Mason Rudolph,   making his first appearance at Heinz Field in 3 weeks  ended when he  barely made his way to the sidelines following a vicious hit to the head by Baltimore's Earl Thomas that briefly left him unconscious, may still find himself a little gun shy this week. With that said and HC Tomlin being the alert coach he is will most like and  probably peg his offensive schemes on a  ground heavy approach which in turn will eat clock time. The above combination of projected events will make for a low scoring affair. Note: The Steelers owns the 6th slowest pace in the league, and the Fins when they are losing a game by more than 7 points own the slowest pace in the league. 

PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg. 

Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games on grass.Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games in October.

Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Big chalk  of  13  or more points have gone UNDER the Total  in 18 of the L/23 games, when the number is 52 or less points.

Miami has gone under in 10 of their L/11 as non-division  dogs of 10 points or more. 

Play UNDER

The Panthers are fresh off a  bye week, which Im betting will see them  energized and ready to rumble here this week against a viable SF offence behind top tier QB James Garoppolo .  The Panthers have gone over in 5 straight off a week off, and have gone over the total in 7 of their L/8 vs a side with a .800 or better win record and eclipsed the total in 4 of their L/5 vs NFC west. Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone over in 9 of their L/11 vs a side of bye. Yes, folks I know how dominate the Niners defences has been , but because of this early season recency bias , we get a very good number to bet into from a over bettors perspective according to my projections. A reversion to the mean here for the 49ers D makes for a portion of my decision making process this Sunday. 

CAROLINA is 8-1 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.9 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 27-1 OVER L/26 seasons for a 97% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER

Nebraska is scoring just over 25 ppg, and are having trouble moving the ball scoring 7, 13, 7 points respectively in their L/3 tilts, thanks to Adrian Martinez their QB being banged up with a knee issue. The Cornhuskers D, however has looked decent and on the season have allowed  21 ppg at home. Meanwhile, Indiana , QB Michael Penix Jr.is injured and less than 100% for this game and could have problems moving the ball if he plays with limited mobility and converting this Saturday vs a staunch D. The Hoosiers D, has also been strong this season allowing just over 20 ppg on the average and deserves respect. All in all I expect both sides to have issues scoring , while the defences stand tall making for a lower scoring affair.

NEBRASKA is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (INDIANA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 51-21 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Colorados D is a shambles as was evident in back-to-back blowout road losses at No. 11 Oregon (45-3) and Washington State (41-10) the last two weekends. Im betting they will be sliced and diced again,  against an explosive Trojans offence ,but this time around I look for them to muster more points here on their own home field against a USC team battling key defensive injuries to (safety Talanoa Hufanga) and sacks leader Drake Jackson. Note:  Buffaloes rank last in scoring defense (34.9 points allowed per game), total defense (482.4 yards) and passing defense (316 yards).

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (COLORADO) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 34-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall.  Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board.

Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7  and the  average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season!

BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER  vs. terrible ball control teams, 28  or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored.

 Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie. 

Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times  after a non conference home game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12  OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Northwestern is a team that bases its strength on defense as their offence is anemic and  atrocious and tonight against an explosive Ohio State offence Im betting they limit big plays and eat up clock in methodical fashion.  As I just mentioned the Cats offense is one of the worst  in the  nation., Northwestern ranks No. 5 overall on defense and 124th on offense and    rank   last in the nation in yards-per-play, points-per-play, and explosive play percentage conversion rate.Tonight Northwestern's excruciatingly slow paced offense will be taking on a over powering Ohio State defense that’s only allowing 8.8 ypg via just 3.7 yards per play and  which ranks second in the nation in defensive havoc.If the Wildcats a side that is averaging just 14.4 ppg (3rd worst int he country) get shutout tonight I wont be surprised . Also Im expecting the Buckeyes to not open their playbook to much this week with Wisconsin on deck for next week, and instead use their  run game quite a bit today, something that they have used more often this season than in recent years ranking 15th in the country in  run play percentage plays. You don't have to be a mathematician to see the writing on the wall that this game has value for under bettors.

OHIO ST is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

NORTHWESTERN is 10-1 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the combined average of 40.8 ppg scored.

NORTHWESTERN  L/22 games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average of 45 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Stanford has held two of its last three opponents to season low yardage, as the defence continues to improve.  Im betting on more of the same action here today vs a UCLA side that has huge problems moving the ball consistently. Today Im betting on a lot of clock time getting eaten away as Stanford a run first team will pound away on a Bruins team with a smaller Defensive front, and for a lower scoring game to ensue. 

Stanford ranks 112th in points per red zone trip and UCLA is 102nd in red zone scoring conversion rate.

Note: Both starting QBs  UCLAs Dorian Thompson Robinson and  Stanfords Davis Mills are less than 100% and both may not start leaving backups to push already faltering offences. 

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, in weeks 5 through  are 37-11 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCLA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Troys defence especially their secondary is a mess, and Im betting on South Alabama quarterback Cephus Johnson  clicking on some big plays  against a susceptible Troy pass D and doing alot more damage here than the linesmakers expect.  Also it must be noted that  Troy  is ranked last in the nation in opponent pass yards per attempt abd 91st in opponent third-down conversions and  last in opponent explosive passing.Meanwhile,Troys offense has  proven explosive this season ranking 49th in points per game, 52nd in explosiveness, and 54th in efficiency while averaging a 42.7 ppg at home and very fresh off a bye week. Needless to say Im betting on a tilt that exceeds this number based on my projections. 

Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 home games.Over is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 games on turf. Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games following a ATS win.

Play OVER 

Here we go as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers in what Im betting will be a  fairly high scoring affair.  Im betting on Lions QB Mathew Stafford  who has owned the Packers D  in the recent past to have a big night here. Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns in nine consecutive battles in this series, and nothing will change tonight. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and  in his usual way will return fire, despite of being without WR Davante Adams and will  also use explosive RB  Jones who leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns to rip apart of the D line  as has been his MO . Jones has  over powered his way into the end zone in six straight games at Lambeau Field. 

These teams have gone over 6 of the L/7 meetings with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 49.1 ppg. Detroit in their L/5 MNF games have seen a combined average score of 54.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

The Lions as a dog off a loss when they failed to score in the red zone at least 3 times, have gone over in the following game 7 straight times with at least 50 combined points scored. Im looking for the Lions to be very much more aggressive here tonight especially in the red zone, and to do a fair amount of offensive damage which will buoy this combined score over the number.

Play OVER 

Patrik Mahomes only has one TD in his last two games, and Andy Reids D, is play ing lazy ball. Now that its become obvious that Mahomes is not a football god just yet, and possibly experiencing a sophomore jinx, this chiefs D is going to have up their game.  Meanwhile, Texas is off an explosive 52 output last week, and in a all out offensive battle  vsTB in a win and now Im expecting a regression to the mean. This combination will Im betting make for a lower scoring game than public and pundits might expect.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 39.9 ppg. Reid is 18-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Reid is 21-7 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored.

The Chiefs are 3-15  UNDER as +5 or more non division home chalk. 

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored and have gone under 4 straight times after a win by 14 or more points.

HOUSTON has gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games.

Play UNDER

Duke (16th) has the second best defensive efficiency in the ACC, , behind Clemson (2nd). Today against a struggling GTEch offence averaging just 15.2 ppg and 8 points per game on the road, should once again have a stellar day. Im betting on Duke establishing the run early and to pound away all day in  clock burning fashion, in a tilt I hav pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

My projections power rankings suggest Duke will hold GTech to less than 4.5 ypp. GEORGIA TECH is 20-3 UNDER when they gain 4 to 4.5 total yards per play with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Miami was upset last week by Vtech by a 42-35 count, which showed off some of the Canes defensive inefficiencies and of course their ability to click on offense. It must be noted that this  MIAMI football program in their L/18 tilts when off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points have seen a combined average of 49.3 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be efficient but not flashy and are capable of putting points on the board, as their 32.2 ppg offensive average would indicate. Note: MIAMI in their L/12 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons has seen a combined average of 47.5 ppg scored. This season Miami has also averaged 38.3 ppg off offence in 3 homes games, and Im betting they do some damage here again in a game I have pegged to go over the total based on my mathematical projections.

Virginia's HC Mendenhall is 30-15 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 58.7 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

  Houston offensive line has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks so far this season, but hat wont be an issue today vs a Atlanta side that just cannot generate much of a pass rush.  With said, Im expecting the sometimes explosive and talented Jamies Winston to have a big day today. Meanwhile, the Falcons stud QB Matt Ryan  ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards  as is evident by having thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season and should once again have a huge day vs a wobbly Texans secondary that has been torched on a regular basis this season . 

Over is 17-4 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf.

Over is 15-5 in Texans last 20 games in October.

Road teams against the total (ATLANTA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 63-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

All these early season low scoring games by two of the leagues top defences so far has this Totals number vulnerable for over bettors to cash. My own projections estimate a combined score in the low 40s, thus from a mathematical perspective based on those estimates Im recommending we take an over stance. 

NFL TENNESSEE is 31-13 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game with a combined average of 42.7 ppg. TENNESSEE is 23-10 OVER   in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 44.1 ppg scored and in their L/21 games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game have seen a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-11 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER