Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ  banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D.  Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. 

BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games

NY JETS  in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

We. know how explosive Mississippi State can be with an air raid offense that never quits. But Arizona is use to explosive passing attacks and are currently well suited to deal with it. Meanwhile, I expect the Wildcats to really look to slow this game down via the running game, which Im betting makes for a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers current offering suggests. 

Under is 16-6 in Bulldogs last 22 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 21-8 in Bulldogs last 29 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. MISSISSIPPI ST is 24-10  l/34 UNDER  after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. Last week they won 49-23 ,but the coaching staff were emphatic about shoring up the D this week. 

Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 MISS STATE /ARIZONA) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 52.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield went 21 of 25 for 356 yards and threw four first-half touchdowns in last weeks 55-21 win over Idaho State and Im betting he does some damage again, while the Rebels D, will take some punishment from a PAC 12 offense that matches up well agains them. Note: Bears Cal QB Jack Plummer went 23 for 35 for 268 yards with three touchdowns and Im betting on even more consistency here as they get the rust off . 

Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 games overall.

Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 games in September. Over is 38-18-1 in Golden Bears last 57 non-conference games.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CALIFORNIA) - team that had a losing record last season, with just 9 or fewer total starters returning are 39-98 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 54.2 ppg. 

CFBeams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 49-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 53.2 ppg. 

Play OVER 

AFC Playoffs - Championship

The KC Chiefs exploded  offensively in a a back in forth game against the Buffalo Bills last week pulling off the over time win. Now Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs the visiting Bengals and their offense could easily be a little more muted this Saturday which Im betting will directly effect this total to the under. 

 CINCINNATI is 24-8 L/32 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-1 L/16  UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with the average ppg  with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored. 

NFL eam where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. 

PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. 

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

AFC Playoffs - Wild Card

Entering this game the Vegas D has allowed 20 points or less 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. In their season finale the Raiders did have a defensive breakdown, allowing 32 points in a 35-32 slugfest victory, but from a historical perspective the Raiders have clamped down in their following game especially if was a shootout, as is evident by the following trends.  Note:Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games following a straight up win.LAS VEGAS is 36-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game with a combined score of 42.4 ppg scored. LAS VEGAS in their L/13 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog have seen a combined average 42.6 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Joe Burrows and company are a virgin group with no big league play off experience, and this will be detrimental to them and their offensive cohesiveness. Despite of the accolades that Burrows gets there have been obvious interruptions their flow on offense and Im betting that will once again be an issue. 

Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 Wildcard games.Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 playoff games.Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games in January.

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total  (VEGAS /CINCINNATI) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

With so many players injured and the additional woes of covid protocols and the possibility of both teams resting starters at some point during this game, I dont feel their will be enough positive flow for a big offensive output here tonight between these foes. I honestly believe that no matter what these coaches say staying healthy for the play offs is the main goal, which to me relates to an affair with very little cohesiveness. 

Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in January. Philadelphia is 0-6 UNDER off a division road game victory. 

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a road favorite.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC. Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas road games have seen a combined average of 42.9 ppg this season. Note: The Cowboys are 0-6 L/6 division road tilts. 

DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored. 

McCarthy is 8-1 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.2 ppg scored.McCarthy is 9-2 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia with the average combined score in those tilts clicking in at 30.2 ppg. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team (4.5 or more  YPR) against an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 85-54 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

 LSU is decimated by injuries, especially on defense and the secondary and Im betting the Cats open up a little more than their MO usually dictates and this will relate to a faster pace than usual and more scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, LSU despite of their offensive problems down the stretch are still a SEC side with explosive output capabilities behind  4 star recruits   who would love to show case their talents for next seasons opportunity to start . With that said, Im betting on a higher scoring affair than many of the pundits estimate. 

Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big 12.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 neutral site games.Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 31-6 L/29 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Both these sides have strong defenses, but the offenses are being under rated in a game that could easily be a back and forth affair. My own projections estimate a combined score of closer to 50 giving us value with an over wager. 

Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games on grass.

 Gundy is 22-11 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST with a combined average of 69 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 30-5 OVER L/29 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in non-conference games are 50-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

Wake forest is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation averaging 41.2 ppg while on defense in road games allowed an average of 38.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Rutgers despite of their overall numbers have shown some offensive flashes of brilliance scoring 38 points on Indiana a month ago and are capable of putting points on the board in this type of non conference game.

You cannot properly prepare for a team like Wake Forest on short notice especially from a defensive standpoint, which has me believing  that the Demon Deacons will bring down the hammer here in a big way, while Rutgers will have no choice but to open up  offensively against  a D that is pedestrian to say the least. WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER   after a bye week over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 86.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

These two teams are explosive offensively and not so strong from a defensive standpoint. Oregon has averaged 31.4 ppg on offense this season while allowing 30.3 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has averaged 38.4 ppg on offense while allowing a average of 33.2 ppg  on the road. With that said Im expecting a back and forth affair that should be highly entertaining and high scoring.  Im projecting both sides score above the 28 point level - Note: OKLAHOMA is 9-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 77.8 ppg scored. OREGON is 9-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. Pac-12.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OKLAHOMA OREGON) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 32-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cheez-It Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Iowa States main mode of moving the ball has been through their super star RB Breece Hall who is out as he opts to skip this bowl game as he prepares for the NFL draft. The Cyclones will replace their RB but wont have nearly the success rate needed to get into position for scores which  Im betting will mute their offensive output.  Meanwhile, Clemson has had problems scoring all season long, but have shown that their D is of the top tier variety. Considering the above mentioned facts and scenarios a lower scoring affair should be expected. 

CLEMSON is 10-0 UNDER  on a neutral field where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992. .Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 non-conference games.Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. Big 12. Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games in December. Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 Bowl games.

IOWA ST is 10-2 UNDER  in a bowl game since 1992. Campbell is 10-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team against the total (IOWA ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 35-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Birmingham Bowl - Protective Stadium - Birmingham, AL

Houston was explosive this season offensively , but here against a SEC defense Im betting their offense will be muted. Remember this is a Tigers side that held Alabama to just 24 points. On the flip-side, the Auburn offense since Bo Nix went down, has been inconsistent and will have some issues here vs a Houston D that is allowing just 18.7 ppg in 9 games played on turf this season. 

AUBURN is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 45.9 ppg. AUBURN is 6-0 UNDER   when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46.1 ppg scored. 

Harsin is 18-2 UNDER (vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 45-19 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Pittsburghs offense has been highly inconsistent this season, and have scored 20 or less points in 5 of their L/8 trips to the gridiron. Here today vs a KC side that is playing at a very high level behind a strong D,  Im expecting another muted offensive effort from the Steelers. It must be noted that before their last outing where they allowed 28 points, the Chiefs had  given up 17, 7,14, 9, 9, 9 points respectively.  On the flip-side, the Steelers achilles heal has been their rush defense, and today I expect Reid and company to pound the ball in anticipation of an expected success rate, which in turn will eat plenty of clock time and help the combined score stay on the low side of the total.

 Steelers have gone UNDER in 19 of their L/ 21 non-division away Tilts  when the Total is set at    53  or less points. Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

KANSAS CITY is 38-18 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored.  KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play this season with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game are 90-44 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.

Play the  UNDER 

These divisional rivals have a recent history of fairly low scoring affairs as is evident by  a 37.8 ppg combined score in their L/4 meetings overall. History does not always necessarily repeat itself but it does have a tendency to mimic it. 

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 7-1 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

Carroll is 16-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored. 

Arizona has gone under in 13 of their L/14 in games in the 2nd of back to back road games.

Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 after a MNF affair. 

Division games have a tendency of generally  being hard fought conservative affairs late in the season usually from game 11 onward into the play offs ( line of 44.5 to 60) as is evident by a 225-143-5 UNDER run for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 39-14 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing teams are 33-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jags average 13.8 ppg on offense this season and Houston average 13.6 ppg. These teams have problems moving the ball and nothing changes here today in sunny  humid Florida.  JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER  when playing with 6 or less days rest this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 UNDER   after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Meyer is 6-0 UNDER (after scoring 14 points or less last game as the coach of JACKSONVILLE with the combined score clicking in at 33 ppg.  

Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games.

. NFL home favorites that off a division road shutout defeat like the Jaguars have gone a perfect 0-12 UNDER since 1996 when the Totals  line is  38 points or more. 

Houston has gone under in 3 straight divisional road games . Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 
UAB owned the best defense in Conference USA and allowed an average of just 18.7 ppg on the road. Mean while the UAB offense was inconsistent and does better with their flow with the run game, which Im betting they will implement and chew up alot of clock time. This for me has me leaning towards a combined score that fails to eclipse this offered Total. 

BYU is 7-0 UNDER as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less with a combined average of 43.7 ppg scored. Sitake is 9-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of BYU with a combined average of 48.9 ppg scored. 

Clark is 20-6 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of UAB with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. UAB is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB/BYU ) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 24-2 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 91% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 34-8 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

This divisional game Im betting will be a hard fourth grinding affair. I know anything involving QB Murray of Arizona is looked at as a point fest. However, because of the importance of this game for these teams, and the usual inter divisional biases, taking the under here looks to be a viable betting option in what Im betting will be a chess like lower scoring affair.

Arizona is  0-7 UNDER  L7 as divisional  Home Favorites  and from a historical perspective Arizona is  0-8 UNDER in their L/8 Monday night appearances. 

ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 38.1 ppg.

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 9-1 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 104-58 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washingtons D is something special in its current form, despite of mostly sub standard numbers overall. This group is as tough as nails and allowing 17, 19, 21 and 15 points respectively in their L/4 tilts and will not easily be pushed around at the line of scrimmage again this week. On the road the Football team are averaging just a little over 20 ppg in offense  Meanwhile, Las Vegas has mostly struggled on both sides of the ball, and finally got their first win 4 tries on the 25th of Nov vs the Cowboys. After that exhausting  36-33 offensive slugfest vs Dallas last time out  Im betting on an immediate reversion to the mean offensively for the Raiders this week with the added rust of an extended lay off to hamper their output and this help keep this game stay on the low side of the number.  .Dating back to the 2015 season all teams like Washington off 3 straight underdogs wins with a line of 43 or more have gone under 8 straight times.

Washington is 5-0 UNDER L/5 vs NDC West sides.

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37 ppg scored,

WASHINGTON is 16-4 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

 Tilts involving non conference conflicts (AFC vs NFC) have only seen 8 of the 32 games eclipse the offered total. 

Play UNDER 

Pac-12 Championship Game - Allegiant Stadium - Paradise, NV

When these teams played earlier this season, Utah owned the Ducks winning 38-7 and completely shut them down offensively and Im betting they will put their offense on mute again, in a tilt I project to have an output in the lower to mid 50s giving us value on this offered number. 

OREGON is 20-8  L/28 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . Under is 10-2 in Ducks last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 12-2 UNDER  in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Whittingham is 7-0 UNDER after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 47.1 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 30-9  UNDER. L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB team against the total (OREGON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are  60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

Air Force took part in a 41-39 offensive slugfest last time vs Nevada. However, previous to that shootout, the Falcons had allowed 10, 14, 17, 20, 21, 21 points respectively and only twice during that span scored more than 24 points. The Falcons love to pound the ball on the ground and here in a emotional letdown spot after their previous blockbuster will now be more conservative and ready to get back to playing solid D. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers might indicate. Note: UNLV has averaged just 21.6 ppg on the road this season. 

AIR FORCE in straight  home games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 39.2 ppg go on the board. AIR FORCE is 7-0 UNDER   off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored.  AIR FORCE is 21-5 UNDER in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (AIR FORCE) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 82-39 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

They both are dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thursday night in New Orleans which sets up well for a slower paced game. 

Two viable defenses go head to head in prime time football this Thanksgiving. Buffalo has allowed just 17.6 ppg and the Saints have given up an average of 21.8 ppg.  Thursday home pups  like the Saints  have gone UNDER all 5 times this season with a combined average of  36.8 ppg going on the board. Note: From a historical perspective it must be noted that the Saints have gone UNDER in   in their last 9  Thursday nighters with a combined score of 39 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard.  Meanwhile, Buffalo was asleep at the wheel last week and were upset  by a ugly 41-17 count by Indianapolis  which Im betting will have them ready for a  vigilant  bounce back effort especially on D. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 30.9 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. McDermott is 12-4 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games on fieldturf.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Thanksgiving nigh tilts have stayed lower scoring in 10 of the L/14 events staying below the offered total by an of 5.8 ppg, with the under cashing 6 straight times. 

Play UNDER 

 SAN JOSE STATE ranks 112th in points per game and 114th in yards per game and Im betting will once again struggle for consistent offensive flow vs Fresno State. Meanwhile, the The Bulldogs’ secondary is one of the tops in the nation , ranking eighth in Passing Success Allowed, and 5th in  opponent completion percentage. On the flipside, Fresno State is more explosive offensively behind QB Haener, but it must be noted that the Spartans D is stout,  ranking 23rd in coverage rating and 34th in yards per pass allowed with the defensive line ranking registering at 40th in pass rush and 48th in Sack Rate. This is a big game for San Jose State so Im betting they play this game like a chess match knowing they are outgunned, which in turn Im betting  will see a muted combined score that fails to eclipse this offered total. 

SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FRESNO ST) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (SAN JOSE ST/FRESNO ST) - in conference games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 188-122 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Northern Illinois clinched the  MAC West and motivation this week maybe an issue as well as trying to stay healthy before they go to Ford Field and play for the conference title. So Im betting on a muted effort here, by N.Illinois while Western Michigan really does not have alot to play after a  very inconsistent season as they are projected to get an invite to a lower level bowl. Western Michigan has one of the better running games and today I expect they will employ that in grinding fashion, as they try to keep the explosive attack of the Huskies off the field, which in turn will keep the clock churning in what Im betting will be a lower scoring game than the pundits anticipate. 

Note: These two sides rank 104th and 96th in tempo in the nation.

N.Illinois ha clinched a N ILLINOIS is 24-9 UNDER  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 52.9 ppg scored.N ILLINOIS is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored during that 23 game sample size. 

CFB  team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 85-36 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

We have a top tier West Division battle between Arizona and Seattle this Sunday afternoon, both were off losses with the Seahawks getting shutout . Seattle’s  enters this game playing a top tier brand of  defense football, allowing  13, 7, and 17 pts allowed in their last 3 games and  come in with a  having eclipsed the total just once in 9 games this season and were shutout last time out with a total of 17 points being scored . The average line of Seahawks tilts has been  48.9 with the average   combined score clicking in at  40.7 ppg.

Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games as an underdog.

Whether QB Kyle Murray plays (ANKLE) or is less than 100% Im betting he is kept mostly at bey. 

 It must be noted that NFL WEST DIVISION games  L/37 seasons  when the home team is an underdog of 6 pts or less  the under has hit 75% plus  of the time after game  8 or greater (15-49-1 UNDER ).

 Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as a road favorite.Under is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 games on fieldturf.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games ARE 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a struggling  passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Green Bays defense shined last time out with a 17-0 polishing of Seattle. Im expecting their D, to stand tall again this week in this key divisional battle vs Minnesota, a side of a hard fought victory last week vs the Chargers. Note: Minnesota has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their L/7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games.

Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games overall.Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC.

GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER (when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 UNDER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a combined average of 34.5 ppg scored.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games are 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season ere 42-14 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D is atrocious but the Dolphins are not a team that can take huge advantage of this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are not trusting Mike White under center, and the play calling from the offensive coordinator is amateurish at best making futility the call here today and a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total.  

NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in home games versus struggling  rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 41-14 UNDER  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return .

MIAMI is 61-39 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 35 points or more in 2 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 29-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.

Play UNDER 

Texas has scored 9 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games and today if they can muster that many points Ill be surprised vs a Titans team that held KC to just 3 points a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Tennessee after 5 straight grueling games against top tier competition could end up using this game as a de-facto bye week, and not put the pedal to the metal or even be inclined to do so as they save some juice for the play offs . This equates to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. DD road dogs like Texas off their bye week have gone under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the gridiron when the total is 42 or more. Texans are 1-10 L/11 under as a road dog of 3 points or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-13 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-14 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

UConn has averaged 13.8 ppg on offense this season and my projections estimate a even lower aggregate here  vs UCF that allows just 15.8 ppg at home vs better competition. This outlook leans heavy on this being a game that will not see this combined score eclipse the offered number. Note: UCF allowed 55 points in a loss to SMU last week, but prior to that they allowed 7, 7 10 points respectively and a return to strong defensive play is key here for the home side. 

Malzahn is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCF) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game.are 24-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Memphis games have not eclipsed the total in 4 straight opportunities. Meanwhile, I know Houston ash really been lighting up the scoreboard but it must be noted  Holgorsen is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 52.7 ppg scored. Im expecting a harder fought battle than many expect with less points than the most expect.

MEMPHIS is 23-5 UNDER L/28  in road games in weeks 10 through 13 . 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (HOUSTON) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 33-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 52.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Duke cant stop the run or the pass, and they have pretty well given up any kind of gritty play which is necessary when looking for strong defensive efforts.Duke has allowed and average of 45 points per game in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. Duke also  ranks  (104th in Success Rate Allowed via the run),  (103rd in Success Rate Allowed via the pass) or the big play (124th). The Blue Devils have had success running the ball as was the case vs Virginia Tech and Im betting they have the same success again which will open play action down field for some scores vs a Louisville secondary that  gets torched for big plays mostly because they open up the field because of not being able to stop opposing ground attacks. Meanwhile, Louisville really put the boots to a good Syracuse D last week, by scoring 41 points, by mostly running our side the tackles, which Im betting will be a successful formula this week, vs a side that is porous and slow at best. This game has the makings of a big ugly scoring slugfest. 

DUKE is 11-2 OVER  in home games off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (LOUISVILLE) - after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after 3 straight losses by 21 or more points are 25-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This total opened around 63 on the board , but than sharp money has come in ever since and driven the number down to a bit to much according to my projections which sets my estimates in at 61 which gives us almost a FG edge to the over.  I know we are expecting to see some rain in Muncie tonight, but the field turf @ Scheumann Stadium will handle it well. Note:  Central Michigan has allowed 39, 30 and 30 points respectively in their L/30 while scoring 38, 42,54 points in their L/3 overall. Even if the Chippewas regress because of weather and other reasons  Im betting on them putting out  a +30 out offensive output here, while allowing +30 points to a Ball State offense that has shown flashes of brilliance scoring 45 on Western Michigan and 38 points on Eastern Michigan. At this offering we have value to the OVER. 

McElwain is 8-1 OVER (when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of C MICHIGAN with the average combined score clicking in at 69.7 ppg.C MICHIGAN  in  their L/9 November games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

Neu is 6-0 OVER  in home games off a road loss against a conference rival as the coach of BALL ST with the average combined score registering at 73 ppg. BALL ST  in their L/9 games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a average team offensive output of 34.9 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Play OVER

These teams have exhibited much better defensive efforts than offensive efforts this season, and Im betting things wont change tonight on the Blue Carpet as Boise State and Wyoming take part in a grinding game, that will see the combined score stay on the low side of the total. From a historical standpoint the L/6 meetings here have gone under the total on the Blue Carpet. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (WYOMING) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

This is a big game for both teams when it comes to play off and possible Bowl implications and Im expecting to be hard fought. Im not sold on N.Illinois D, but  tonights weather forecast in DeKalb, Ill.  is predicting   13-15 mph winds throughout the game, which will hamper  both air attacks which in turn will effect offensive output.N ILLINOIS is 16-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 and N ILLINOIS is 23-9 UNDER in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored which was the case last time out. with a combined average of 52.8 ppg. 

 CFB team against the total (N ILLINOIS) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (7.5-8.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 64-28 L/5 seasons for 70% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Toledo has a bad defensive game last time out  vs Eastern Michigan but have been very good overall this season, and  now  Im expecting a bounce back effort. Im also betting we will see Toledo grind on the ground all night, against a tough Bowling Green D and their spotty offense in what will be a low scoring war in the trenches. 

TOLEDO is 23-8 UNDER  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TOLEDO) - good passing team (230-275 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons .

CFB  team against the total (BOWLING GREEN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points are 73-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

These are two teams that base their offensive attacks on a run-heavy game plan  and both sides also are ranked among the slowest paces in college football. I know Akrons D, is horrendous and Western Michigan will do some damage, but they have had problems finishing  drives, so output Im betting will not be as extreme as the lines-makers expect. Meanwhile, Akron despite of some recent success through the air will have issues against a solid Broncos secondary. For me this equates to a more muted score than the pundits expect. Note:Under is 24-6 in Zips last 30 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 

Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game which was the case last time out vs Central Michigan. ( A more concerted D effort is to be expected).

Play on the UNDER 

These sides slugged away on the ground against each other last year in a game that ended in a 10-7 score ( 17 total points) and the year prior to that a 17-13 final score ( 30 points) . Im betting on another grinder here and for the combined score to remain on the low side of the number again. Note :  Academy Totals are 39-9-1 UNDER L/49  for a 81% win rate.

AIR FORCE is 7-0 UNDER  after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.ARMY is 7-0 UNDER  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Dallas is really lighting it up and look like a team possessed scoring  35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 trips to the gridiron .Non-Division teams  like the Cowboys who produced  35 or more points off offense  in each of their last 4 contests  are a perfect 6-0  L/6  opportunities OVER  when the  Total is 46 or higher. Dallas has gone over 9 straight times, vs the NFC north where the Vikings reside, and Im betting on rested legs and off a bye week they will light the board up against vs a inconsistent Vikings D.Over is 14-3-1 in Cowboys last 18 games following a bye week.DALLAS is 11-3 OVER  in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons for a combined average of 61.1 ppg. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings also off a bye week will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will result in a combined score to go over the offered number. Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games following a bye week.Over is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 vs. NFC.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER  as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Penn State started their season with a 5-0 run and than after blowing a late lead lost to Iowa 20-18 in heart breaking fashion, and than in a letdown situation lost last time out  in surprising fashion 20-18 to Illinois last time out. No matter what there has been one constant with Penn State this season, and that is a top tier D, both against the run and secondary as is evident by allowing an average of 14.7 ppg. With the opportunity to gain back some respect, Im betting the Lions really lean on the Buckeyes and make them work for points this week. This Im betting directly effects the combined score to the under as Penn State has also proven to be a conservative team on offense. 

Franklin is 11-2 UNDER  after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team ( 6.2 or more  YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 32-9 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OHIO ST) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 32-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OHIO ST) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Houstons D, is of the top tier variety allowing just 17.3 ppg on the season and 14.3 ppg at home. I know SMU owns and explosive offense but Im betting they will be muted here. Meanwhile, SMUs D, is also under rated and despite of allowing alot of points in garbage time have still allowed an average of just 22.7 ppg . Today in this important game for these side, Im expecting more of a chess game than an all out slugfest which will result in this total not being eclipsed. 

HOUSTON is 20-7 UNDERoff a no-cover where the team won as a favorite with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (SMU) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-5  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

CFB team against the total (SMU) - excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 57-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team against the total (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Recent history in this series:   Since the first meeting in this series back in 2014  the Panthers took the next three games, winning 34-7 in 2015 in Statesboro, 30-24 in 2016 in Atlanta and 21-17 in 2017 in Statesboro. GS won the next two games, 35-14 in 2018 in Atlanta and 38-10 in 2019 in Statesboro before the Panthers won last year 30-24 in Atlanta. According to these numbers none of confrontations has seen the combined score eclipse this total. 

 Georgia Southern remains a ground-oriented team. The Eagles rank No. 1 in the conference with 238.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Georgia State averages 221.9 yards rushing per game, No. 3 in the Sun Belt, behind its big, experienced offensive line and will also pound the ball. With both teams leaning on their ground games alot of clock time will be eaten, and Im betting that results in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse the total. 

GEORGIA ST is 11-2 UNDER  off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (GEORGIA ST/GA Southern) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games are 40-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Defensively,  Troy has been in top form this season  and Im betting they  keep Coastal Carolina  from one of their usually explosive offense outputs. They are hard to run on and pass against, thus Im betting that this will contribute greatly to a lower scoring affair that does not see this offered total eclipsed. 

l. Under is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games on grass. Under is 9-2 in Trojans last 11 road games.

Under is 5-1 in Chanticleers last 6 games in October. Under is 4-1 in Chanticleers last 5 games overall.

COASTAL CAROLINA is 12-3 UNDER  in home games after playing a conference game with a combined 47.1 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TROY) - good passing team (230-275 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 24-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 49-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The Texans have scored a total of 35 points in 4 games (8.75 ppg). Arizona has allowed an average of 18 ppg, and Im betting both these means to averages will continue. I know the Texans D, is atrocious and the Cards are putting up points in bunches, but Im betting Texas does everything possible to turn this into a grinding slow motion affair. On the flip-side Arizona is off a road underdog win last time out, and be in a letdown state here vs a side that Im sure they are not taking very seriously no matter what they say. Also after playing 3 of their L/4 games and at break neck speed this will be a spot where the Cardinals energy levels will be lower than usual which will relate to a slower event that may might expect. These are my expectations, and right or wrong Im betting this game with confidence to the under.

HOUSTON is 10-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game  with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. 

Note: undefeated non-division home teams like the Arizona Cardinal from GAME 5 and beyond  have gone a  0-11-1UNDER L/5 seasons  when the Totals offering is  45 or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, after the first month of the season are 46-18 UNDER  L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Detroit is ranked 28th  in scoring  in the NFL averaging  18.3 ppg and here against a solid Rams D, that output average will be further muted and have scored 17 or less points in 5 straight. That lack of productivity  Im betting will  help keep this combined score under the offered number. It must be noted that the LA Rams play at the rate in the NFL averaging just 59 plays per game. I expect a slower more deliberate game from the Rams after playing 2 consecutive  road games. Its takes time to use to home cooking so I dont expect them to be as explosive as usual. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons of 31.4 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg going on the board. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

My projections estimate both these sides will score+28 points which gives value to this over wager. 

Over is 9-2 in WStates last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Cougars last 8 games following a ATS win.

Over is 5-1 in  BYU Cougars last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 3-1-1 in 
BYUS last 5 games following a straight up loss.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BYU/WASH ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 30-2 OVER L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 72.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

My projections on total offensive output is based on trending stats , but also how both these coach's perform under certain situations and perimeters. Add to that a overall college football trend that denotes a lower scoring affair and I am solidly on the under here today. This is an important MAC game so it will see some chess master moves by both coaches that will keep the game more conservative than might usually be the case , which will Im betting keep this tilt under the total.

Candle is 6-0 UNDER  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of TOLEDO with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. 

Lester is 7-0 UNDER after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored as the coach of W MICHIGAN with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored.Lester is 8-1 UNDER  after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game as the coach of W MICHIGAN with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 39-8 L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Colorado States D, is up-trending in my power rankings, and have allowed a total of 51 points in their L/4 trips to the gridiron ( 12.75 ppg average) and their ability to slow down Utah States attack will help directly keep this game from going over the number. Meanwhile, Utah State after an explosive start offensively have settled down and have 24,28, and 3 points in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. Tonight Im expecting a grinding game between two Mountain west squads and a total that will not be eclipsed. Note: CSU is 4-1 under L/5 overall. 

COLORADO ST is 37-19 UNDER L/56 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with a combined average of 51.6 ppg going on the board.

UTAH ST is 39-21 UNDER L/60 when the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 56 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (COLORADO ST) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

When these teams played last season San Jose  State won by a 34-17 count. Now despite of the Spartans offensive numbers showing. a distinct drop from last season, my own projections estimate they matchup well here vs D allowing 35 ppg on average  and should easily go above their offensive  season averages. Meanwhile, UNLV winless on the season, are desperate for a win and will not be conservative in their approach here today and  will come at the Spartans in aggressive fashion  which  increases the probability of an output that goes over this offered total.  UNLV is 21-9 OVER L/30 vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game.UNLV is 20-4 OVERoff a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival with a combined average of 65.8 ppg scored.

Over is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 Thursday games.

Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - off a home loss against a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 69-35 OVER L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Giants offense is banged up with Barkely Jones expected out  and a few more keys guys expected to miss or be less than 100% if they do play. The giants struggle at the best times to score so now this week against a tough D, Im betting their output  problems continue . This is a contributional factor I have used to recommend we take the under here today. The Gmen have seen their L/6 home games stay under the total with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. inconsistent  defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.2 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-5 in Rams last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 21-7 in Rams last 28 games as a favorite.Under is 11-4 in Rams last 15 games as a road favorite.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NY GIANTS) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, with a losing record are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

Iowa State plays a  grinding type of football and in 3 diff games allowed 10-7-3 points. the last two meetings in this series have stayed under the total. rinse and repeat. 

IOWA ST is 6-0 UNDER  off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. 

IOWA ST is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in road games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return with a combined average of 41.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

CFB  team against the total (KANSAS ST) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-2 UNDER  for a 93% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored. 

CFBeam against the total (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 48.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

 IOWA is 15-3 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.8 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PURDUE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 24-2 with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Oregon and California have a long history of low scoring affairs with 9 of the L/10 meetings staying under the total. The two most recent meetings have seen 24 and 38 combined points go on the board. Rinse and repeat this Friday night. 

Wilcox is 12-4 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 47.7 ppg scored.Wilcox is 9-2 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more ) as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 42 ppg going on the scoreboard.Wilcox is 22-11 UNDER   against conference opponents as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 46.7 ppg scored.Wilcox in 6 games   as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of CALIFORNIA has seen a combined average of 46 ppg scored. 

Under is 9-3 in Golden Bears last 12 games as a road underdog. Under is 9-3 in Golden Bears last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-3 in Golden Bears last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

Under is 9-3 in Ducks last 12 games in October.O  record.Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games following a bye week.

Play UNDER

This game is a one way street to an over in my betting opinion. Chiefs  rank 30th  in overall defense  allowing. a whopping 438 ypg)and rank 30th in scoring defense at 31.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bills average 33.5 ppg and more than 400 ypd on offense. I know the Bills D is strong, but KC can score and explode offensively against any side, and put 40 points on the board last week. This is a pretty high total but Ill take a square stance here and take the over in what should be a prime time shootout. KANSAS CITY is 9-1 OVER  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER (  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a. combined average of 57.3 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 73-36 OVER L/38 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

These are two very solid defensive sides going head to head today. Cleveland has allowed 16.8 ppg this season, and LAC 18.5 ppg. More of the same looks to be on tap this Sunday. 

LA CHARGERS are 29-11 UNDER L/40  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER L/10 versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game with a combined average of 30.7 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.4 ppg going on the board. 

 Cleveland in  wins in which they allowed only 6 and 7 points  which was the case against the Bears in Vikings have seen   All non-division road teams off back-to-back wins in which they allowed 7 or less points EACH go under 7 straight times dating back 10 seasons. 

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 56-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Western Kentucky one way offensive pass crazy attack  will have problems penetrating the red zone here this week against  terrific UTSA pass defense and Im expecting UTSA to pound away on the ground here  in methodical fashion and eat up alot of clock time , which will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect . UTSA is 11-1 UNDER  when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons

UTSA is 12-4 UNDER in all games over the last 2 seasons. UTSA is 7-0 UNDER  vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (/UTSA W KENTUCKY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 29-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (W KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed) are 40-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

 Play UNDER 

KC has played some back and forth affairs this season, scoring and allowing more than 24 points in all 3 games.    In the past this has resulted in NFL teams going   0-7-1 UNDER  in  the  last 4 season in the following tilt  when the following perimeters have been met-  NFL road favorites of  3 or more  pts after scoring and allowing 24  pts  or more in EACH of their last three tilts. With the Eagles on short rest off a Monday night game Im expecting a more subdued conservative effort vs a more rested team. Also I doubt highly the Eagles will be willing to take part in a shootout here and this Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER   in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at  34.5 ppg . PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER   in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.5 ppg going on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.1 ppg scored. 

. PHILADELPHIA has gone an UNDER- 13-31 UNDER for a  70% conversion rate  in all home games over the last 5 seasons including having  gone under in 9 of 10 games as home pups of 7  or less points . 

Play UNDER

After the disaster of week 1 , for Green Bay which resulted  in a lopsided 38-3 loss to New Orleans I expect a disciplined effort from the Packers in what will be a conservative mind set vs their long time division rivals the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the gridiron crew from Motown will also be ready to be more defensive minded after a 41-33 shootout in week 1 that resulted in a loss. Note: DETROIT is 37-20 UNDER  L/57  in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 

NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 31-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 22-2 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Military Academies are  on a 39-8-1 UNDER run! 

Play UNDER

Middle Tennessee State cranked it up offensively FCS opponent Monmouth, 50-15 and will come in there ready to keep an aggressive offensive mind set alive. Virginia Tech  Im betting will also take advantage of  Middle Tennessee State team that allowed 35.4 points and 446 yards per game last season. Last year, Virginia Tech averaged 31.1 points per game.

Play OVER

Im betting Colorado smashes  Northern Colorado with offensive punch after offensive punch here tonight . The Buffs  averaged 4.6 yards per attempt and ranked 22nd in the nation in rushing yards per game vs top tier College Football opposition and here versus  a defense that gave up a whopping  5.8 yards per carry and nearly 250 rushing yards per game against FCS competition some big time output is my bet. Im also expecting Colorados incoming QB Lewis to highlight a strong arm and aerial phenomenons against a suspect Northern Colorado secondary.  On the flip side Im also betting on Northern Colorados spread offense to do more damage than the lines-makers expect vs a Buffs pass D that can be extorted and a D that allowed more than 32 points four times last season, and run D that was ranked 114th in the nation last season. 

Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games overall. 

Play OVER 

 .

After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week,  the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable  ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected.  KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992  with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL  team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons .

My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. 

Washington has gone under in 8 of their L10 since the first month of the season, with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

Pederson is 12-1 UNDER in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.  Pederson is 13-0 UNDER  in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 39.1 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

NFL home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB  Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores.  Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate.

Play OVER

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta is missing  two key starters for this tilt against KC  on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. 

TLANTA is 7-0 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 26-10 UNDER L/36 in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 39.2 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 13-3 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 point with a combined average score of 34.2 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 27-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

  The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Hawaiis offense has not been as explosive as it has been in recent seasons, and that was evident in their 3 road games where they averaged 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense has not looked as bad as recent incarnations, and the program under Graham  now looks different  rankingn in the top 30 for Success Rate. This season Hawaii has had success via their run game, as the  rushing attack is top-10 in the nation in explosiveness while maintaining a Line Yards rank of 26th. Considering their current form and the way the Warriors play, Im expecting them to look to grind this clock down with a run heavy attack, and remain conservative in their game plan vs a Houston side that has run hot and cold on offense all season long. Note: Houstons HC Holgorsen is 9-1 UNDER in December games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 55 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Tigers took a backward step this season from an offensive perspective and  ended the regular season going under the total in three straight tilts against FBS opposition while overall ranking of 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards . The Tiger just cant run the ball well thus making them easy to read. That will once again be the case vs a staunch Florida Atlantic D, that allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games before a lackluster effort in their final game of the season vs Southern Miss, but that was because of their run D, something Mempjhis will not be able to exploit in the same way . Meanwhile, on the flipside the Owls offense has struggled all season long ranking  115th on offensive standard downs Success Rate. Considering both sides of offensive discrepancies and than adding in Florida Atlantic's top tier stopping unit, has me recommending we take the under. 

 CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA ATLANTIC/ MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Despite the Green Wave overall good defensive numbers they have had issues against top tier passing sides,  as is evident by  defending pass explosiveness, ranking  124th in the nation. Meanwhile, Nevada QB Carson Strong finished the season as one of the  top passers in the  nation, ranking sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. So Im betting the Wolfpack have some cohesiveness through the air today, and will look downfield quite alot knowing how tough the Green Wave run defense can be. On the flipside one again, Tulane does like to run the ball alot that can grind down the clock, but new New offensive coordinator Chip Long formerly with Notre Dame after having two week to prepare for thsi tilt, will be ready to throw some new stuff into the mix and Im betting Nevada wont be able to deal with it all that well. This is not a conference game, and will be played alot less tightly than those type of affairs thats why I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

CFBeams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NEVADA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390-440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-14 OVER l/28 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group.

The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. 

Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

The Mean Green own  one of the fastest offenses of all FBS ranking second in tempo and this team takes a no prisoners approach to moving the chains through the air. I know App State owns a tremendous secondary, but I still expect N.Texas to do a degree of damage while their own D, which ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. App State has not always had alot of flow on offense this season, but the offensive line has still  produced a top-30 ranking in Line Yards and Power Success Rate and Im betting they have a great deal of success today in what promises to see a combined score that eclipses the total. 

Play OVER 

The Bears are 0-9 UNDER L/9 coming off an upset win where they scored at least 24 points.
The Bears are 0-10 UNDER L/10  off a game as a dog where they covered.
Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games as a road underdog.Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games in December.Under is 20-8 in Bears last 28 games as an underdog.

Under is 11-4 in Vikings last 15 games in December.

Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

NFL Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-3 UNDER L/ 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate fro bettors with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 24-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Chic/Minn under 

Buffalo is off a huge win vs Pittsburgh last time out, and will be in an emotional letdown spot here this week, and could easily find themselves starting slowly on offence  which will directly effect the total combined score here in this tilt vs a Denver side that almost always struggles on offense averaging just 15.7 ppg at home this season.

The Broncos are 0-10-1 UNDER coming of a road game where they threw for at least 250 yards.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-3 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Play Under - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more) playing a team with a losing record are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

NFL Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 424-290 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

Tonight games is supposed to be a windy affair with gusts of 20 mph and average winds clicking in at 14-17 mpg. With that said, Im betting on both sides reverting to run heavy ground games, and short passes which will eat alot of clock time and help keep this score to the low side of the total. 

Note: Divisional under  reg/playoffs since with a total of between 44.5 to 60 since 2005 are 204-124-4 UNDER for a 62% conversion rate. 

CLEVELAND is 22-10 UNDER L/34 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

BALTIMORE is 12-3 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

BALTIMORE is 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 104-53 L/37 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Pittsburghs offense has stalled in its last two games in recent weeks, but Im betting Tomlin and company will be more aggressive this week and get back to the 24 to 37 point output consistency they managed previous to those tilts. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really started to roll , scoring 44, 30,27, 34 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron and more than capable of piercing the Steelers top tier defence. The above combination will see this tilt eclipse the total. My projections estimate both sides will score 20+ points. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Detroit plays wide open football at  home in the dome the past two years. The Lions are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 at home. 

DETROIT is 10-0 OVER L/10 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  60.3 ppg scored. 

The Packers are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 on the road coming off a game where they allowed less than 310 total yards. 

Play OVER

Im betting the Titans explosive offense will tee off on a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Meanwhile, on the flipside  Tennesse  ranks in the  bottom five in DVOA and could easily get pierced by a Jacksonville side  that has scored 25 or more points in  4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. These teams have seen 60 plus points go on the board in recent meetings. Note:  Titans QB Tannehill has seen 21 of his L/25 games go over the set total in a regular season game. The Titans are 11-0 OVER L/11   facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 75 yards against last meeting. TENNESSEE is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with an average of 57 ppg going on the board in those gamesTENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER

We have a very low total attached to this game but rightly so. Since 2005, games between two of the three service academy teams have gone 36-9-1 to the under. And the Army-Navy matchup, specifically, has  gone under 14 of the L/15 times. Rinse and repeat in another grinding affair between these two rivals. 

Play UNDER

My projections estimate this total to be closer to 48 which gives us alot of value here based on that projection. I perception here by the lines-makers and much of the public is that this will be a field position chess match, but I do not see it that way. Last week , the Pats put 45 points on the board, and look ready to surge offensively behind Cam Newton, while the Rams bounced off a loss in their previous week to put 38 points on the board in a win. I know both sides have shown under the total tendencies, and New Englands overall offensive numbers might look like smoke and mirrors, but Im expecting enough fire works based on my models to recommend  we take the over. This game is all about flow, and both come in here surging. Note: NFL  home favorites like the Rams  of 3+ points on artificial surface are 29-0 OVER when they are off a double-digit vicotry as a  favorite and they are going against a side   that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game as visitors with a combined average of 55.4 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER

HC Reid of KC likes to play teams he deems as lower tier sides alot more conservatively than might be expected. I believe Reid trys not to exert to much energy against inferior opponents especially if his team has bigger goals ahead like this version of the team he resides over which will usually translate into the positive of  less injuries. This type of game plan will Im betting see a lower combined score than the linesmkaers are expecting. 

Reid is 12-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. Reid is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average combined score clicking in at 40.1 ppg. Reid is 16-4 UNDER  in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

The Chiefs are 0-9 UNDER L/9  as a home favorite of more than a TD when the line is more than seven points lower than last game.

The Broncos are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they failed to cover.  Broncos have gone under in their L/7 division road games. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 26-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles won 34-27 at Green Bay last year, which marked the Packers' only home loss and Im expecting more surprising action from a Philadelphia side that is still looking for a ;possible play off appearance. My projections estimate a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. 

The Packers are 14-0-2 OVER L/18 coming off a home game and playing a team below .535 on the season. Green Bay  is 11-1 OVER L/12  after division home game. GREEN BAY is 21-8 OVER ( versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored.

Over is 30-14 in Eagles last 44 road games. Philadelphia 7-0 OVER L/7 away vs NFC North. 

Play OVER

After losing for the 2nd straight time and being embarrassed by a 43-6 count last time out, I expect the Raiders to get back to basics and run the ball more consistently while playing a conservative game and a much better brand of defense. Today against a jets steam that struggles with offensive consistency as was evident by a 3 point output last week, Im betting we see a game that stays on the low side of the number this week. 

LAS VEGAS is 16-6 UNDER (L/22  in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game with a combined average score of 44.1 ppg. 

 NFL  team against the total (LAS VEGAS) - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

The Boilermakers have one of the most dynamic  wide receiver duos in all of college football with Rondale Moore and David Bell and Im betting these two stars help put a boatload full of points on the board vs a Nebraska D, that is allowing an average of 32.6 ppg. Meanwhile, here on the road Im also betting Nebraska behind a offence that put 30 points on the board vs Penn State to open up here and reciprocate with some fireworks of their own.HC Brohm is 16-3 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.2 ppg scored .Brohm is 30-12 OVER   when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a. combined average of  with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 8-1 OVER   as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of PURDUE with a combined average of 63.9 ppg.

Play OVER 

My projections estimate that Air force will put 35+ points on the board vs a Utah State D, that has allowed an average of of 35.2 ppg . Note: UTAH ST is 20-7 L/27  OVER when they allow 35 to 41 points with the combined average score of 58.9 ppg scored.Meanwhile, Utah finally started to open up their offense , and get it flowing last time out putting 41 points on the board, and Im betting they do enough damage here to get this combined score over the total. 

AIR FORCE is 15-4 OVER L/19 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return with a combined average of 65.1 ppg. AIR FORCE is 10-2 OVER in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season with a combined average of 57.2 ppg going on the board.Calhoun is 31-17 OVER  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of AIR FORCE with a combined average of 59.8 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UTAH ST) - with a poor rushing D - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 36-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER 

Skip Holtz and LA Tech have not played since Halloween and Im betting his offence will be rusty and take time to get into a flow here. Meanwhile, North Texas despite of showing some defensive deficiencies this season, will according to my projections hold down the fort to an extent, and help keep this tilt on the low side of the slightly bloated number.  Also look for The Mean Green to pound the ball on the ground against a Tech side that has had problems stopping the run whihc will eat clock time in a hurry. Note: Holtz is 10-1 UNDER  in road games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg going on the board. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.9 ppg scored. 

NORTH TEXAS is 9-0 UNDER  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 56.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (North Texas/ LOUISIANA TECH) - when playing on a Thursday are 50-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

These teams offenses do not run a very high speeds. Seattle is ranked in the middle of league in pace with the Eagles offense ranks 25th in pace. Both these offensive lines rank 31st and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which will Im betting makes for some stalled plays and adjusted yards that see backward movement. Philadelphia offense overall rank 30th overall and 30th in passing offense and Im betting their lack of explosiveness will also hamper the combined points basket here. Meanwhile, the Eagles D, continues to improve, and deserves respect here against Wilson and company.  On the flips side I know the caveat here is the Seahawks Defense, but it is uptrending in my charts, and now that they are getting heal-their could easily continue to improve. With Seahawks Carroll recently deciding to revert back to a more run heavy attack, Im projecting a more grinding game than the lines-makers might expect. 

Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in November.T

he Eagles are 0-15 UNDER L/15 at home facing a team allowing more than 21 points per game with a combined average of 35.13 ppg going on the board with none of the 15 games going over this total. 

Play UNDER

The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line with injuries to A.Q. Shipley, Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted as they struggle to protect senior QB Tom Brady. Meanwhile, on the flipside as explosive as KC can be Im also betting they will be in tough here today vs an impressive Bucs defensive front.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL away teams like  like the Chiefs that won more than ten games the previous regular season and are not on a four-plus game losing streak are 0-23 UNDER L/23 when they are off a away tilt,  and have an average turnover margin of more than one-half, and they are now going against a side that has averaged more than 36.5 passes per game season to date.

Play on the UNDER 

Im betting on TCU pounding the ball on the ground quite a bit today and eating up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, the flip-side, TCU D Im betting makes life miserable for a Kansas  offense that averages just 15.1 ppg to be stymied in a tilt that Im betting stays on the low side of this total. TCU is 0-12 UNDER L/12  as a favorite coming off a game as a road dog.

Play UNDER

Northwestern took part in a 17-7 game that they won vs Wisconsin last time out . This Saturday when the Cats meet Michigan State Im betting on more grinding slow paced action whith my projections estimated a combined score in the low 30s giving us tremendous value on this line. 

Northwestern has seen 10 straight road games go under the total. 

Michigan State was shutout by a powerful ?Indiana side last time out by a 24-0 count in another grinding slow paced game. Note:Michigan State is 0-9 UNDER L/9 times as a dog coming off a tilt  where they scored less than 27 points going under by an average of -18.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Recently the Steelers run D, has struggled and today Im betting the Jags in a move to stay close and to try to pull off the upset will attack and try to move the chains via their ground game in very conservative fashion which will help keep the clock churning. Also on the flip side experienced HC Tomlin knows  his team needs to take a significant step forward after failing to go over 50 yards rushing in any of their past three game. Im expecting Tomlin to be more aggressive than usual with the ground game , as it needs to improve as we head towards the play offs which will make his team less predictable. This Im betting also helps us cash on the under  in what should be a grinding affair. 

Pittsburgh is 0-14 UNDER L/14 when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 going under by more than a TD  on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500.
 

 Jacksonville is 0-16 L/16 UNDER on a natural surface when they are off a road loss and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1.75 turnovers per game season-to-date.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 35-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Arizona and Seattle are both known for scoring and allowing a boatload full of points but the lines-makers have over compensated here according to my projections. These teams have not had a 57 or higher Total attached to their games that I can find in my data base going back over a 30 year span. It must noted that teams like Arizona that have  scored 28 or more points  in each of their last four tilts have gone under 16 straight times when at least three of those games went over and their opponent is not undefeated on the season. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 89-48 UNDER L/37 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

Kent State has no problem pouring it on and showing very little empathy for their opponents as was evident last week as Juston Crump (8.8 yards per play) threw for a TD with less than 2 min left on the clock in what was already a lopsided event 62-24 event that they won. Im betting on Arkron lighting up the board again vs a Akron secondary allowed 262 yards on just 16 attempts last week. Im also betting on Akron to do just enough damage here to help this contest eclipse the total. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (KENT ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a poor team (outgained by 50-100 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 26-6 OVER L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

This Totals selection is based on my projections that estimate a total combined score of 56 points goin on the board which use pace success rate and plays per success rate . With a FG edge Im recommending we take an under hedge. 

HC Loeffler L/14 games in all lined games as the coach of BOWLING GREEN has seen a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BUFFALO) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 83-39 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

  My projections estimate that this Total  is almost a FG higher than my number 48 - thus giving us value on a under selection. Yes, I know the Broncos, have allowed an  average of 35.7 points over its last three games , but this team is much better defensively than their current run would suggest, and offensively they are extremely inconsistent scoring 18 or less points in 5 of their 9 games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Vegas  has recently found a groove in their run game churning out 209-yard day against Cleveland and followed it up with 160 yard against the Chargers and will want to keep that formula in play which in turn should churn up alot of clock time which will help us cash a under ticket. 

Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-7 in Raiders last 29 vs. AFC West.

The Broncos are 0-10 UNDER  coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected.  Under is 10-3-1 in Broncos last 14 vs. AFC West. Under is 20-8-1 in Broncos last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over  12 straight times  when they are off a defeat when  facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than  31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting  will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. 

 Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the OVER 

 USC needed two touchdowns in the final three minutes,  and a successful onside kick, to sneak past Arizona State 28-27 on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Trojans' four turnovers and three failed fourth-down tries  sort of told the tale of this game, but now with a game under their belt Im betting their ability to not lose the ball will improve as will their D and overall play. Considering this is Arizonas first game, Im betting the Wildcats D, will be more acclimated to in game conditions than the offense that will exhibit rust and also solid competition to contend wit, this hindering their flow. . This Im betting results in a combined score that that stays on the low side of the total. 

My projections estimate that we have value with a under wager in a game I have pegged at 63 on the total. 

Under is 29-14-1 in Trojans last 44 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

USC is 0-11 L/11 UNDER  as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they trailed at halftime. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

Play UNDER