|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-18-23||Browns v. Steelers +2||22-26||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is 8-1 SU when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also 14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are 1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory.
CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .
NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh.
Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover
|09-17-23||49ers v. Rams UNDER 45||30-23||Loss||-110||106 h 51 m||Show|
Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season allowing just 17.2 ppg and are off holding the Steelers to 7 points and a total of 239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to Seattle in week 1 action and slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by allowing just 180 total yards and only 13 points.
Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2 sides playing in the their 2nd of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away sides like SF, have gone under 13 of their L/14 road games after allowing 7 pts or less on the road in their previous game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.
Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt.
NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-17-23||Bears +3 v. Bucs||17-27||Loss||-115||104 h 55 m||Show|
There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort. Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Chicago Bears to cover
|09-17-23||Ravens v. Bengals -3||27-24||Loss||-120||77 h 46 m||Show|
Bengals star QB is off a ugly game week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens. Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home. Rinse and repeat.
Play on Cincinnati to cover
|09-17-23||Colts +1.5 v. Texans||31-20||Win||100||50 h 17 m||Show|
Colts QB Richardson was overall impressive in his first NFL start. He ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt.
NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate.
NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here.
Play on Indianapolis to cover
|09-16-23||Kansas -28 v. Nevada||31-24||Loss||-110||62 h 51 m||Show|
Ken Wilson’s Nevada are a defensively challenged team as is evident by allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more point favorite .
NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 30.2 .
CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas to cover
|09-16-23||Wyoming +30 v. Texas||10-31||Win||100||60 h 30 m||Show|
After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be.
TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
Longhorns are also 0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites in matchups when they are off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points.
Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series.
Play on Wyoming to cover
|09-16-23||New Mexico State +1.5 v. New Mexico||27-17||Win||100||60 h 58 m||Show|
The New Mexico Lobos are 0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a 21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want .
New Mexico State to cover
|09-16-23||Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5||35-20||Loss||-105||71 h 53 m||Show|
Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't faced any top tier opponents, only taking out a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition.
Play on Purdue to cover
|09-16-23||Tennessee v. Florida +6.5||16-29||Win||100||71 h 5 m||Show|
Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home.
CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for a 82% conversion rate.
Play on Florida to cover
|09-16-23||James Madison +3 v. Troy||16-14||Win||100||59 h 31 m||Show|
JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week, in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win.
Play on James Madison to cover
|09-16-23||South Carolina +28 v. Georgia||14-24||Win||100||56 h 44 m||Show|
This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The GameCocks own a 7-0 ATS record as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more.
GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992.
Play on South Carolina to cover
|09-16-23||East Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 47||28-43||Win||100||47 h 6 m||Show|
ECU defense ranks 99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.)
|09-16-23||Georgia Southern +19.5 v. Wisconsin||14-35||Loss||-115||65 h 11 m||Show|
Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss. Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall. Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today.
Play on Georgia southern to cover
|09-15-23||Virginia +15 v. Maryland||14-42||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a wide awake bounce back effort here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss.
CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100 or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Virginia to cover
|09-14-23||Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles||28-34||Win||100||26 h 48 m||Show|
Philadelphia did not look good against New England this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9 ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in their L/6 home openers,
NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Minnesota to cover
|09-11-23||Bills v. Jets UNDER 46.5||16-22||Win||100||107 h 38 m||Show|
The Jets and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings with 37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored.
Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair.
NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-10-23||Rams +5.5 v. Seahawks||30-13||Win||100||81 h 22 m||Show|
The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs.
. LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle.
Play on Rams to cover
|09-10-23||Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos||17-16||Win||100||81 h 6 m||Show|
Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material.
LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992
NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.
Play on the Raiders to cover
|09-10-23||Eagles v. Patriots +4||25-20||Loss||-110||59 h 1 m||Show|
New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers getting his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats.
Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick .
The loser of the previous Super Bowl if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons.
Play on New England Pats to cover
|09-10-23||Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons||10-24||Loss||-110||78 h 11 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog.
Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate.
Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta.
Carolina to cover
|09-09-23||Arizona +9 v. Mississippi State||24-31||Win||100||74 h 42 m||Show|
Mississippi State in memory of ther late coach Mike Leach put up a huge effort winning a decisive 48-7 decision vs SE Louisiana last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this week, that will likely see regression. It must be noted that Mississippi State smashed the Arizona by 22 points back in 2022 (39-17)and now with revenge on board, you can bet this Wildcats side will be primed to play and with them getting points Im betting we have value.
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 19-6 L/31 seasons for. a76% conversion rate.
Play on Arizona to cover
|09-09-23||Temple +9 v. Rutgers||7-36||Loss||-110||72 h 21 m||Show|
The Knights beat the Northwestern Wildcats last time out 24-7, in a tilt that saw Rutgers gain just 283 yards of offense which tells me that this team is being over rated here . Meanwhile, the Owls came from behind to beat a pretty good Akron team last time by allowing the Zips to just 38 yards of offense in the 2nd half. Note: The Owls program has cashed 6 of their L/7 openers against opposition that just notched a victory.Schiano is 0-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival as the coach of RUTGERS.
CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 6-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.2 .
Play on Temple to cover
|09-09-23||Texas v. Alabama -7||34-24||Loss||-110||72 h 30 m||Show|
Texas almost tripped up Saban and company last season losing a 20-19 heart breaker , but now Alabama will come in here very prepared and ready to make a statement and not be ambushed again vs the Longhorns. It must be noted that Saban vs his former assistants is 28-2 SU and 4-0 SU/ATS as a host when favored by 18 points or less. Also Texas has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference away tilts and must not be over estimated in their ability to compete in this SEC road environment. Saban is 19-9 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ALABAMA. Best Bet.
Alabama to cover
|09-09-23||Central Florida v. Boise State +3.5||18-16||Win||100||72 h 34 m||Show|
I know The Broncos lost their first game of the season in ugly fashion, but this this is a much better team than their performance vs Washington last week, and now Im expecting them to have a huge bounce back effort here on the blue carpet against a over rated UFC football program. I know Central Florida can really light things up, but this Boise side ranked 11th in the nation in D, last season, and are more than capable of slowing down their explosive opposition . Boise State is 21-0 SU in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one campaigns and Im betting wont easily be defeated here tonight at home.
UCF is 0-6 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF won 56-6 vs Kent State last week)
BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 26-6 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Boise State to cover
|09-09-23||Connecticut +3 v. Georgia State||14-35||Loss||-105||71 h 44 m||Show|
The Georgia State Panthers took a seven point victory over Rhode Island last week but their defense looked atrocious as is evident by giving up 35 points on 520 total yards . They score enough to come out with a win, but that was nota good look and will be their downfall this week, as I dont believe their offense can be as effective vs this under rated UConn side that gave a good N.Carolina State squad all they could handle in a 24-14 loss. Note: Georgia state have lost 7 of their L/11 at home SU and are not solid favs.
UConn to cover
|09-09-23||Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4.5||33-48||Win||100||69 h 0 m||Show|
Miami out gained Texas A&M last season by a 392-264 count but couldnt punch through for a victroy, but this season, in this venue could see them turn the trick in the rematch. It must be noted that the Aggies program has not faired well in road openers in the recent past in their L/17 as visitors to start their season have failed to cover 6 games as a favorite of 3 or more points. Miami is also 5-0 SUATS the last five as a non-conference home dog, and are once again value line underdogs vs a over rated opponent.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.( Miami smashed Miami O last week 38-3)
Miami to cover
|09-09-23||Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado||14-36||Loss||-115||64 h 4 m||Show|
I know Colorado had a big game and upset TCU last week, but now Im betting the Buffs to be in an emotional letdown situation and ripe for an upset of their own. Hey I know Nebraska just cant get over the hump no matter who their coach is , but HC Rhule deserves respect in the underdog role on the road where his teams are 9-3 ATS . ( Lost ot Minnesota 13-10 last week in a grinding affair, andIm betting they can turn this game into trench warfare again)
COLORADO is 0-7 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 9-22 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
CFB road team (NEBRASKA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 53-22 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
NEBRASKA is 7-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1992 here on the road.
Play on Nebraska to cover
|09-09-23||Notre Dame v. NC State +7.5||45-24||Loss||-110||64 h 37 m||Show|
North Carolina State took a 10-point win at under rated UConn and must be respected here at home as dogs.It must be noted that HC Dave Doeren is 4-1 ATS at home in abattle of of undefeated sides, and 12-0 SU in home openers. I know the Irish mashed a couple of over rated patsies ( Navy, Tenn State) but this is whole diff type of team they face here this afternoon .
Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack's 3-3-5 defense over the years- Im betting on a Rince and repeat situation.
NOTRE DAME is 2-11 ATS in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.
CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 21-52 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover
|09-07-23||Lions v. Chiefs -4||21-20||Loss||-110||24 h 40 m||Show|
KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year)
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
KC HC Andy Reid is 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming by double-digits.
Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover
|09-07-23||Lions v. Chiefs OVER 52||21-20||Loss||-113||23 h 2 m||Show|
Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over 4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB Jeff Goff who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is 8-0 L/8 OVER Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight.
|09-04-23||Clemson v. Duke +13.5||7-28||Win||100||37 h 35 m||Show|
Duke is 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season home openers and last season were 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in HC Mike Elko’s first season at the helm of the Blue Devils football program. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers vaunted D, has to replace four NFL draft picks giving Dukes Junior quarterback Riley Leonard a chance at a big night as he looks to pad a 33 touchdown and a 3,600 yards offensive performance last season. This is a opportunity to make a statement here for Elko and his q8 returning starters. With that said, Im on this Blue Devils group as Im betting they will be primed to really come out here and play hard tonight in a never say die take no prisoners gridiron battle.DUKE is 8-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Duke to cover
|09-03-23||LSU v. Florida State +2.5||24-45||Win||100||35 h 53 m||Show|
Florida State has 18 returning starters off a 10 win campaign, while their opponents the LSU Tigers were hit hard by the NFL draft losing 10 starters from last seasons group. It must also be noted that the Tigers have been virtual pussy cats on the road failing to cover 6 of their L/8 overall while the Seminoles are 9-0-2 ATS in their L/11 games played in Orlando and are 7-1 SU L/8 games in this series and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the young men from the Bayou. LSU has lost its last 3 season openers and I would not be surprised if they register another one here as the Seminoles vaunted ground game does enough to get through a tough Tigers run D.
Play on Florida State to cover
|09-03-23||Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State||42-17||Win||100||31 h 45 m||Show|
OSU finished last season on a 7-0 ATS run and enter this season with momentum while their opponents San Jose State finished their campaign on an exact polar opposite 0-7 ATS run and than lost their opener this season to USC by a 56-28 count. SJU is just 1-26 SU in their L/27 line road games vs PAC 12 opponents and look to once again be cannon fodder in this tilt vs what is a far superior side.
OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +19.9.
Play on Oregon State to cover
|09-03-23||Northwestern +7 v. Rutgers||7-24||Loss||-110||796 h 43 m||Show|
This year will mark the fourth straight season that Northwestern begins against a Big Ten opponent, having beaten Nebraska last year, fallen to Michigan State in 2021 and crushing Maryland in 2020. Northwestern is on a two-game winning streak against Rutgers dating back to 2018. Rutgers has averaged only 22 points per game vs. NU in 3 all time events, and Im betting they have problems scoring again in a game I have pegged to be a 1 score event giving us value with the TD + underdog line.
Schiano is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents as the coach of RUTGERS.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 59-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northwestern to cover
|09-02-23||Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -15.5||13-27||Loss||-110||26 h 2 m||Show|
UCLA no longer has QB Dorian Thomas-Robinson but with 16 starters returning for the Bruins they should be just fine. With former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo in the fold for the Bruins some new looks could really make a the Bruins a dark-horse candidate this both in the PAc 12 and and the nation. Kelly has cashed his last 3 home openers and will once again be primed to juice an opponent, especially one traveling from east to west . Note: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover 8 of their L/12 as DD dogs. New CC HC Tim Beck has his hands full, in a game that Im betting ends in a conclusive UCLA win and cover
CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 94-45 ATS L/31 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover
|09-02-23||North Carolina -2 v. South Carolina||31-17||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
NC Coach Mack Brown is 26-4 SU in season openers, including winning 18 of his L/19. and with 18 starters back and top tier QB at the helm in Drake Maye and you have situation where the Heels are being under rated vs the over hyped Heisman hopeful QB Caleb Williams and company of South Carolina . With revenge on board for a ugly 38-21 loss back in 2021 , Mack will be primed to have his team ready out of the gate again this season. Note: The Gamecocks have lost 5 of their L/6 vs the ACC, while the Heels are a perfect 5-0 vs sides from the SEC as fav of 4 points or less like they are here today.
North Carolina to cover
|09-02-23||Akron +11 v. Temple||21-24||Win||100||271 h 50 m||Show|
Akron lost alot of close games last season, but now with improved running game, and the talented DJ Irons back at QB, they could find a way to make the gap small enough to ramp up more wins and more importantly covers and be even more competitive from a W/L perspective.
Temple is still not back to their top programs they had 12 years ago, and Im projecting no more than a 4 wins this season and in their current form do not look capable of covering this line as favs.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in non-conference games are 49-20 L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors,
Play on Akron to cover
|09-02-23||Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. SMU||14-38||Loss||-110||124 h 42 m||Show|
|09-02-23||Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Boston College||27-24||Win||100||124 h 42 m||Show|
NIU went 3-9 last season, but five of the losses were by eight points or fewer. The 2021 team went 7-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Last year an array of injuries really gutted them and 2021 they were healthy. This program is built to be tough as nails, and out of the gate they are fairly healthy and deserve respect here as underdogs. The dogs are not a deep team but the starting 22 are projected to be gridiron take no prisoners war lords. Im betting Boston College has their hands full here today.
N ILLINOIS is 53-26 ATS as a road underdog since 1992. Hammock is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
CFB road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 26-10 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northern Illinois to over
|09-01-23||Central Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 45.5||7-31||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
Central Michigan returns nine starters on defense .After ranking top-50 nationally in EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards and they should be tough to work against once again. Michigan State returns four starters on the offensive line, but its line ranked 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in Stuff Rate allowed so scoring and moving the chains could easily be problem here tonight against a formidable defense. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has to replace their starting QB and running back from last season, and they also could find the sledding tough here early this season. The Spartans return seven starters on defense and the rest of the class looks to be tough as nails, Im seeing this being their strength this season. All in all Im projecting a fairly low scoring event with this Total not being eclipsed.
CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (C.MICH/MICHIGAN ST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 42-10 UNDER L/31 seasons with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.
|08-31-23||NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 46.5||24-14||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
NC Carolinas defense was elite last season, and will once again come in with some of the best defensive players in all of college football especially at the linebacker position ie Payton Wilson. Last years offensive coordinator Beck left NC for Coastal Carolina, so the offense will Im betting be a work in progress out of the gate against a strong UConn defense. Note: NC Star quarterback Devin Leary transferred to Kentucky so as I said, things will be different, and will take time to jell. On the flipside, the Huskies will once again lean on their running game, behind new QB Joe Fagnano and that will eat up alot of clock time in what should be a grinding early season affair that gives the edge to the defenses and not the offenses.
NC STATE is 22-6 UNDER when playing on a Thursday since 1992 with a combined average score 44.9 ppg scored.
CFB team against the total (UCONN/NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 84-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
|08-26-23||Hawaii +17.5 v. Vanderbilt||28-35||Win||100||109 h 53 m||Show|
Hawaii covered 6 of their L/7 games last season and enter here with momentum vs a Vanderbilt program that despite of being hefty favorites , may not warrant such a backing from the lines-makers . The last 4 times Vandy has been installed as non conference favs they failed each time, and Im betting that will be the case again vs a Rainbow Warriors side that has redemption in mind after an ugly 63-10 opening day loss to the Commodores last season.
VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CFB home team vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 4-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate.
Play on Hawaii to cover
|08-26-23||Ohio +3 v. San Diego State||13-20||Loss||-113||110 h 33 m||Show|
The Bobcats completed the 2022 season with a 10-4 record, going 7-1 in the MAC conference play, that was a after a slow start-- they won seven of their final eight games and deserve respect here as underdogs with momentum on their sides. With top tier QB Kurtis Rourke back to 100% healthy after a late season injury the Bobcats are a side to be feared. The Aztecs will be formidable at home behind what is expected be another strong defensive group, but its their offense that remains less than formidable , and could easily find the sledding tough against a D, that improved significantly as last season progressed. Im expecting a close game but taking the points here looks to be the most advantageous investment option.
Play on Ohio to cover
|08-26-23||UTEP v. Jacksonville State||14-17||Loss||-110||107 h 6 m||Show|
The UTEP Miners have four returning all-stars with the interior loaded with tough veterans to go along with Steven Hubbard at left tackle. they were good last season in protection mode and really helped the running game progress and Im betting they will be even better this season. This is a hard hitting squad thats not easy to play against and must be respected on a short line vs a Jacksonville State side that is new to the FBS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State might be primed to get a win out of the gate here, but with what my projections estimate is a sub par D, that will probably not come here today.
CFB home team vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE ST) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are just 3-22 L/31 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on UTEP to cover
|08-26-23||Navy +21 v. Notre Dame||3-42||Loss||-110||45 h 23 m||Show|
Navy's new HC and former defensive coordinator,Brian Newberry brings respect to the sidelines, after Ken Niuamatolos departure after 16 seasons at the helm of this scholastic gridiron program. I know Notre Dame is the bigger and better brand, but Middies must not be disrespected here as underdogs in this long time series rivalry. Note: The Irish are only 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field vs a military college, and military schools of 20+ or more point dogs have been a bankroll expanding cash cow for their backers producing at a positive 83-39-3 ATS clip the L/43 seasons. With 18 returning starters in the lineup Navy will be well prepared to stay within this number here in Ireland this Saturday.
Play on Navy to cover
|02-12-23||Chiefs +2 v. Eagles||38-35||Win||100||156 h 57 m||Show|
The Chiefs are being under valued here by the linesmakers and some of the betting pundits. Phillies passing D while ranked No.1 in the league, still remains their weakest link against top tier pocket passers like Mahomes, and Im betting that will be the difference maker in the end. Both drop back passers Dak Prescott and Gared Goff both put up big numbers on the Eagles this season, and Mahomes will also thrive. On the flip-side Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a shoulder issue, and despite having a solid running game to aid him, that wont be entirely enough to produce the offense needed to beat an experienced super bowl QB and league MVP like Mahomes.
Mahomes is 9-1 ATS as a underdog in his NFL career, as well as 19-3 SU in non conference games and 4-0 SU vs NFC East opposition.
Reid is 13-4 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.
Play on Kansas City to cover
|02-12-23||Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51||38-35||Loss||-105||58 h 41 m||Show|
Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20 after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
|01-29-23||Bengals v. Chiefs||20-23||Win||100||61 h 11 m||Show|
I know alot has been made of how the Bengals have won 3 straight meetings vs the Chiefs. But now Im betting on a huge redemption minded performance from the KC here in Sundays play off game. Note: Chiefs HC Andy Reid’ in games with triple revenge-exact is 7-1 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS at home off a win. I know superstar quarterback Mahomes has suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he practiced this week without a hitch and Im betting his injury is being exaggerated.
A key factor here today for Burrows and company is a banged up offensive line, and could be without three starting offensive linemen . All and all Im betting home field advantage and Mahomes inexplicable need to get a win here will be the difference maker.
Reid is 14-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of KANSAS CITY.
NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-25 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on KC to cover
|01-29-23||Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48||20-23||Win||100||58 h 29 m||Show|
I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship play off game. The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored.
Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|01-29-23||49ers +2.5 v. Eagles||7-31||Loss||-102||55 h 20 m||Show|
These sides the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are very evenly, matched but Im betting the difference maker will be the 49ers Niners’ PK Robbie Gould, who has made all 67 of his career playoff kicks, including 38 consecutive extra-point attempts including 29 FGs for a perfect 100% conversion rate. Add in the Niners protracted play off experience, and home field advantage is in my betting mind negated.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 11-1 ATS in January games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on 49ers to cover
|01-22-23||Cowboys v. 49ers -4||12-19||Win||100||56 h 2 m||Show|
Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has won his first six starts and deserves respect here in a place where the 49ers have dominated opponents. The 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, have victories in 13 of their last 14 and covered 12 of those games. With an 11 game current overall win streak that highlights their effectiveness Im betting the hosts get the job done again behind a top tier D, and a running back in RB Christian McCaffrey who matches up well against the Cowboys strong D. I know DakPrescott looked good against the horrid D, of the Bucs lat week, but this Sunday night Im betting his life will be made miserable by aggressive pass rushing group .SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
Play on SF 49ers to cover
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||27-10||Loss||-110||65 h 24 m||Show|
Cincinnati is just 1-6 In ITS against fellow playoff sides this season and have lost the stats battles in 3 straight games by an average o 139 ypg. I don't care how many good ATS trends support the Bengals taking points it just not justify their current play and in my betting opinion are over rated at less than a TD dogs. Note: The Bengals banged up offensive line is down to just tow reg starters. Look for Burrows to spend a great deal of time scrambling around today and will land on his back more than once. On the flip side Buffalos Josh allan after suffering with a sore wrist looks to be back on form and will primed for a big day.
McDermott is 11-1 ATS after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO.
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 62-108 L/29 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.
Play on Buffalo to cover
|01-21-23||Giants +7.5 v. Eagles||7-38||Loss||-110||58 h 2 m||Show|
The Giants are being under rated in this tilt considering they 11-2 ATS underdog with HC Brian Daboll at the helm. Also it must be noted that the Gmen were involved in 14 one-score tilts this season cashing at a 12-1-1 ATS rate proving how highly competitive they were behind a never say die attitude and top tier chemistry. I know the Giants lost both times to the Eagles this season, but now in double revenge the Giants are the right side at this line offering.
NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Giants to cover
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5||20-27||Loss||-110||54 h 1 m||Show|
The Jaguars were trailing 27-0 before making. a miraculous comeback last time out,vs the Chargers . However, now Im betting the Jags will be in a huge a huge emotional letdown spot against a rested Kansas City side that will be ready to put the pedal to the metal and not let off the accelerator til the very end.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons. Note:
HC Reid’s 19 career postseason victories have been by double-digit margins. Rinse and repeat in play this week vs the Jags.
Play on the Chiefs to cover
|01-16-23||Cowboys v. Bucs +2.5||31-14||Loss||-105||106 h 2 m||Show|
In Tom Brady Brady we trust . The GOAT is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 SU in his career versus the Dallas Cowboys . I will happily take the points here with one of the great all time QBs in NFL history in a key play off game. Hey don't get me wrong Dak Prescott is a excellent QB as well but he has a propensity for turning the ball over via interceptions.
DALLAS is 5-15 ATS in road games in January games since 1992.
Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a natural surface. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings
NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tampa Bay to cover
|01-15-23||Ravens +7 v. Bengals||17-24||Push||0||107 h 30 m||Show|
Baltimore ranks third in scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game) and tied for ninth in total defense (324.3 yards allowed per game). I know alot of focus is on whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play, but Im betting the difference maker here comes via the Ravens ability to play physical ball against a team that has played every game like its their last. Which for me is not a good omen going into the play offs, as exhaustion and regression could easily rare their ugly heads at the worst possible time. Remember Baltimore beat Cincinnati in week 5 and in my opinion valid underdogs in this tilt.
BALTIMORE is 31-15 ATS l/36 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better, ) Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of BALTIMORE.
CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion run for bettors.
Play on Baltimore to cover
|01-15-23||Dolphins +9.5 v. Bills||31-34||Win||100||100 h 50 m||Show|
The Bills’ this past season had some problems with the Dolphins Closing as 4.5-point favorites in the first meeting, they were defeated by a 21-19. than as 7-point chalk the second time round and barely squeezed by in that matchup be a 32-29 score. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as I have this tilt projected at less than a TD for Buffalo thus giving us value with an underdog take with the Fins.Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Play on the Dolphins to cover
|01-15-23||Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 47||31-34||Loss||-108||99 h 54 m||Show|
Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible. MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.
Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.
Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games
BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.
NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.
NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.
Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.
|01-14-23||Seahawks +9.5 v. 49ers||23-41||Loss||-110||79 h 36 m||Show|
The 49ers opened the season 3-4 and trailed the Seahawks in the division race before running off 10 consecutive victories. The 49ers look like the right side, but after playing very hard physical ball for an extended period of time they could easily hit a wall regress at the worst possible time. Something Im betting on here in this play off tilt.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 28-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.
Play on Seattle to cover
|01-09-23||TCU +13 v. Georgia||7-65||Loss||-110||107 h 24 m||Show|
TCU enters this game hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring an average 47 points per game in their L/3 trips to to gridiron. Meanwhile, somethings not right defensively with Georgia as they have now allowed 71 points and 1,013 yards in its last two tilts. Also after finding a way to barely get by Ohio State last time out in miraculous fashion, Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation against a TCU side that is expected to lose and play with alot less pressure than their opponents , thus giving us a hefty cushion on what my projections estimate is a slightly bloated line. Note: The L/4 teams that made it back to the College Football championship game, are 0-4 /SU/ATS. Also .750 or better DD bowl pups entering off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS dating back to the 2008 season .Add to that bowl teams taking 13 points or more on the opening line are 7-0 ATS going against .900 plus win % sides dating back to the 2013 campaign.
Dykes is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Favorites in the Championship game have failed to cover 5 of the L/8 times and are 0-2 SU/ATS vs non undefeated opposition like TCU.
Take the points with TCU
|01-08-23||Lions +4.5 v. Packers||20-16||Win||100||74 h 35 m||Show|
Despite of Green Bays big win vs Minnesota last week all was not perfect as they were out yarded in that tilt by a 346-315 deficit and have lost the stats battles in 6 of their L/7, so not all is good in Cheesville. Meanwhile, Detroit is 9-0 ATS L/9 division tilts, and need a win to make the play offs and some added luck of Seattle losing. The Lions will be motivated and their recent history against division tilts has me on the take this Sunday.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS versus sub par rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - off a win against a division rival, in January games. are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL road teams (DETROIT) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-41 ATS L/39 seasons for 71% conversion rate.
Play on the Detroit Lions
|01-08-23||Bucs +4 v. Falcons||17-30||Loss||-110||67 h 34 m||Show|
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
TAMPA BAY is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons and 2-0 in their L/2 visits to Atlanta.
Play on Tampa Bay to cover
|01-08-23||Ravens +7 v. Bengals||16-27||Loss||-105||52 h 14 m||Show|
Cincinnati had their game suspended last time out because of a sudden heart attack of one of their opponents players (Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.) It was a worrisome situation that Im betting is still playing the minds of the Bengals. Despite of this being the Bengals home finale Im betting Baltimore surging defensive play will keep them in this tilt for a cover. Note: Baltimore stoppers have allowed an average of 292 yards per game over the L/2 plus months. The Ravens are also very competitive side as is evident by their last six games being decided by an average of just 4 ppg.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season .
Harbaugh is 33-18 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better as the coach of BALTIMORE
NFL Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Baltimore Ravens to cover
|01-08-23||Patriots +7.5 v. Bills||23-35||Loss||-115||46 h 47 m||Show|
After the collective trauma the Bills suffered last week when their team mate Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest it wont be a easy thing to get over . Needless to say the lingering effects of that negative event could sway their mental cogdoscence this week making them vulnerable vs a very hungry Pats team that is in desperation mode as they need a victory here for a post season appearance. The Pats also have the added incentive of revenge for a loss they suffered to the Bills earlier this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . (Buffalo beat the Pats 24-10 back in December)
HC Bill Belichick in his last game of the season in his career with New England is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on New England to cover
|01-08-23||Vikings -5.5 v. Bears||29-13||Win||100||25 h 8 m||Show|
Chicago looks to be just going though the motions and are playing ugly ball losing their L/5 games by DDs. Here today vs a angry Vikings side looking to rebound from a beating at Green Bay will be primed for a Bounce back before the play offs start. Vikings are 46-22 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bears are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC North. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover
|01-07-23||Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars||16-20||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
Jacksonville has really played well of late and are off a couple of convincing wins, and 4 straight overall However is must be noted that JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points . With the AFC title at hand here, Im betting we see a grinding affair that will not easily be won by either side making getting points the strongest option here tonight. Tennessee has won their L/2 visits to Jacksonville.
Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Jaguars are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.
Play on Tennessee to cover
|01-07-23||Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5||31-13||Loss||-110||45 h 26 m||Show|
The Chiefs main concern this week is staying healthy for the play offs while Vegas who have been competitive for most of this season, will be primed to pull. off an upset. Considering the Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham carved up one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in a 37-34 loss vs SF Im betting we have what Im betting is a live dog to back .
Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
CITY is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS against conference opponents this season.
McDaniels is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LAS VEGAS.
Play on Raiders to cover
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +1||21-35||Win||100||20 h 59 m||Show|
Penn State finished their season playing a top tier brand of football winning their L/4 games . This Nitanny Lions football program is as streaky as they come and when their hot their hot and hard to stop. Note: PSU's is 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS when coming off
two or more SU/ATS victories which is the case here going up against Utah of the Pc 12. Franklin is also 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 13-1 ATS off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals as the coach of PENN ST.
Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Utes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PENN ST) - after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/40 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Penn State to cover
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||46-45||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
Im betting USC is in emotional letdown situation after blowing an opportunity to be in the National Championship play off series by losing to Utah in their PAC 12 finale. Meanwhile, Tulane has looked better and better each week this season and deserve respect here to pull of the upset. Bowl teams with the Heisman Trophy winner like USC ( QB Caleb Williams) are 0-8 SUATS off SU/ATS loss dating back since 1980. .TULANE is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.Fritz is 12-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of TULANE.
Play on Tulane to cover
|01-01-23||Steelers +2 v. Ravens||16-13||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
Pittsburgh is 6-2 when when JJ Watts their outside linebacker plays and Im betting he will ignite this Steelers team again vs a Baltimore side that clinched a play of spot last week and could easily find themselves in a emotional let down spot vs a hard working group that believe it or not still have a chance at a play off spot. The Steelers have been victorious in four of their last five trips to the gridiron with their only loss coming by two points against these same Ravens back in Week 14.
BALTIMORE is 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU L/5 vs Baltimore and 2-0 L/2 here in Baltimore.
NFL Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||17-41||Win||100||54 h 26 m||Show|
The Packers enter Week 17 on a three-game winning streak, and Im betting they make 4 in row here today behind the streakiest QB I ever seen (Aaron Rodgers) . Minnesotas inability to protect their own QB (Cousins) will be key here, as they have allowed 11 sacks in their in their L/2 games.
Rogers is 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career and has cashed all 4 of his opportunities this season .
Play on Green Bay Packers to cover
|01-01-23||Jets v. Seahawks +1.5||6-23||Win||100||54 h 27 m||Show|
Seahawks are struggling and have lost 3 straight and off two losses as pups but the good news comes via their 10-0 ATS mark as hosts when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Also Pete Carroll, is 8-1 SU at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a sub .500 record . Carroll is 20-9 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.
The Seahawks go against a NY Jets that has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and no matter who starts at QB for them Wilson or White they just dont look cohesive as is evident by a 4 straight losses, and a overall offense that produces just 19.8 ppg on the road this season they continue to be fade material.
NY JETS are 4-16 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.
Play on Seattle to cover
|01-01-23||Jaguars v. Texans +4||31-3||Loss||-110||52 h 36 m||Show|
Jacksonville has been playing well of late ,but being this big a fav on the road is not something I would support considering the Jags have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road favs. Meanwhile, the Texans come here looking confident after a upset win last week vs Tennessee for their third straight cover .
Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU against opposition coming off a SU underdog win. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons and is 2-0 SU here at home.
NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 20-50 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Houston Texans to cover
|12-31-22||Ohio State +6.5 v. Georgia||41-42||Win||100||73 h 34 m||Show|
I saw and listened the reaction of Ohio State players and the coaching staff after their loss to Michigan, and that defeat Im betting put a fire under their proverbial behinds of this team and they will now be ready for a huge redemption vs a top tier opponent Georgia. OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS in road games off a home loss since 1992. Day is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of OHIO ST. It must be noted Ohio State was ranked ahead of Georgia when the season began and are being under rated here.
OHIO ST is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CFB Teams like Georgia who were victorious and covered their conference title tilt are 0-10 SU L/14 seasons against opposition coming off a SU loss as a chalk like Ohio State.
Play on Ohio State to cover
|12-30-22||South Carolina +2.5 v. Notre Dame||38-45||Loss||-105||32 h 41 m||Show|
Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Biggest issue with the Fighting Irish is their No. 129 in Red Zone Defense . Im betting S.Carolina will score above their season average because of this and that their own D will hold the fort here. Note: HC Beamer of the Gamecocks has recorded a 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference opposition and have cashed 4 SU underdog wins this season and Im betting rings the bell again here and cashes a ticket for us.
S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Notre Dame is 7-15 SUATS in its last 17 bowl games.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an inexperienced QB as starter are 91-150 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on South Carolina to cover
|12-30-22||Pittsburgh +6.5 v. UCLA||37-35||Win||100||31 h 36 m||Show|
Pittsburgh , ended their season in top form winning four consecutive tilts to close the campaign, keyed by a defense that allowed just 14.5 PPG during that top tier span. The Panthers matchup well vs a UCLA side that has been inconsistent this season despite of alot of pundits backing them for bigger in better things since before this season began. Today /Im betting the superior D, which Pittsburgh pwns will get the job done and get us the cover. Note: Pac-12 Bowl sides like UCLA that allow more than 25 PPG are 0-14 ATS the last 14 opportunities.
UCLA is 11-24 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992. Narduzzi is 11-3 ATS in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.Bruins are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.Bruins are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 77-37 ATS L10/ seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
|12-30-22||Maryland v. NC State||16-12||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
Duke's Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
My Bowl matchup power rankings suggest like the linesmakers do, that these sides are evenly matched but why I like the NC State in a close game is because NC State has Christopher Dunn, who won the Lou Groza Award for the nation’s best kicker on their side of the filed. Advantage NC State.
Terps head Terrapin Locksley is 3-39 SU vs a side with a better record.
CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (NC STATE) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/game), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-2 L/30 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover
|12-29-22||Washington v. Texas -3||27-20||Loss||-110||26 h 0 m||Show|
The Longhorns had a very good season and lost only four games with two defeats coming against top 10 programs. Today against a suspect Huskies D, Im betting the Longhorns will dominate . Yes, there are some top running backs not playing for the Texas today but with the talented Jonathan Brooks waiting for his chance to impress the Longhorns will be fine.
Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-12.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS in road games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.Pac-12 Bowl teams like Washington that allow 25 or more PPG are 0-14 ATS in their L/14 bowl appearances.
Play on Texas to cover
|12-29-22||Minnesota v. Syracuse +11||28-20||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
Syracuse was ranked 5th in the nation in Team Defense despite of a up and down season and are being disrespected here by the public in their ability to be competitive. Both sides, feature strong RBs, and Im betting on a grinding affair that is much closer then the public and lines-makers expect.
Babers is 9-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE.
Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS Bowl games.Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Play on Syracuse to cover
|12-28-22||Ole Miss -3 v. Texas Tech||25-42||Loss||-120||31 h 8 m||Show|
Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Tech won its last three games of the regular season when quarterback Tyler Shough returned to the starting lineup , and Ole Miss lost their L/3 games. But despite of this I still like what my power ranking suggest is the superior side. Note: Bowl sides like Texas Tech coming in on 3-0 SUATS run are just 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when going against an opposing side coming off a SU favorite loss like Ole Miss is losing their finale to Mississippi State 24-22. as 2 point chalk .Kiffin is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS TECH is 1-8 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Ole Miss to cover
|12-28-22||Kansas v. Arkansas -2.5||53-55||Loss||-110||28 h 2 m||Show|
Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN
I know Arkansas is missing quite few players from their regular roster, but this is still a deep SEC side that played alot of formidable teams this season and looked good for the most part and Sam Pittman will have them ready compete . Meanwhile, Kansas despite of having their star QB Daniels back in the lineup, are a side that is atrocious defensively, and Im betting Arkansas takes advantage of their porous so called stopping units. Key here is the Jayhawks D, that allows an average of 356 ppg and Im betting it gets smashed. I know everyone loves a dog , especially one with an explosive offense but like said, the Kansas D is their Achilles heal.
CFB team (ARKANSAS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arkansas to cover
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +7.5||53-29||Loss||-110||23 h 28 m||Show|
QB Grayson McCall has grabbed Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year honors three times in his top tier Collegiate career and he holds numerous QB records at Coastal Carolina. This will be his last game in Coastal Carolina uniform and Im betting he will be primed to perform before entering the transfer portal. I know the Chanticleer's were beat up on their two final game sof the season, by two strong opponents James Madison and Troy, which abruptly ended a 9-1 run, but Im betting those tilts will have them prepared to take on a explosive East Carolina offense, but an inconsistent group that can struggle defensively. (East Carolina ended their season allowing 42 and 46 points respectively to Houston and Temple. COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 76-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Coastal Carolina to cover
|12-27-22||Utah State +7 v. Memphis||10-38||Loss||-100||21 h 18 m||Show|
Utah State (6-6) won five of its last seven regular-season games to qualify for a Bowl appearance. It was a struggle at times this season, but they must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs the Memphis Tigers. Remember this is a program that won 11 games last season. The Aggies defeated three teams that earned bowl invitations this season: UConn, Air Force and San Jose State. and own an over 1,000-yard rusher and nine all-conference-type players.
MWC Bowl sides 5-0 SUATS vs. AAC opposition.
NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 76-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.
Play on Utah State to cover
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +4.5||21-23||Win||100||18 h 28 m||Show|
Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
Georgia Southerns offense behind QB Vantrease can be explosive but his propensity to throw interceptions (15 this season) is something that must be considered detrimental. Meanwhile, quarterback Cole Snyder, a transfer from Rutgers started all 12 games in the regular season for Buffalo; he completed 59.2% of his passes for 2,765 yards, along with 17 touchdowns and eight picks and must not be underestimated in his ability to play at top level , especially against a Eagles D that rank 124th in defensive SP+. Comparing records isolated key trends that directly effected my perceptions of this matchup as Buffalo was 5-1 ATS as Bowl teams this season , while GSU 0-5/SU 1-4 ATS against bowl sides.
Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (BUFFALO) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game.are 76-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Buffalo to cover
|12-26-22||Chargers v. Colts +4||20-3||Loss||-106||31 h 14 m||Show|
The Colts have now had two straight 33-point meltdowns: one last week when Minnesota overcame a 33-point halftime deficit to defeat Indianapolis in a spectacular comeback victory the other when they were outscored 33-0 in in the final quarter a tight game at Dallas the week before . Needless to say this is a red faced group that will play this game with nothing to lose making them a dangerous foe. INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
NFLHome underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 60-27 L/39 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Colts to cover
|12-26-22||New Mexico State +3.5 v. Bowling Green||24-19||Win||100||76 h 58 m||Show|
Bowling green is over rated as is evident by ranking 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on Defense. Meanwhile, New Mexico State under Jerry Kill has impressed me with his upgrading of this team, and how well they finished the season. Considering Kill has had success against MAC sides winning 20- of 27 attempts in his career SU vs this conference including an 18-2 SU mark vs sub .500 sides like Bowling Green. With that said it will be an easy decision o take the points here with a side this very hungry program.
Play on New Mexico State to cover
|12-25-22||Bucs v. Cardinals +7.5||19-16||Win||100||85 h 13 m||Show|
Tampa Bay is not a championship calibre team and they proved it last week by blowing a 17 point lead to the Bengals and then making blunder after blunder. in a ugly DD loss. Not even the great Tom Brady has looked all that good, as father time remains undefeated and has slowed the future HOF down considerably. On the flip-side, Arizona has nothing to play for , but beating the Bucs would help many on this team sleep better. With that said, TB still in play off position, but still not the kind of team you want to back as a TD or more road fav as they are just 1-8 ATS L/9 as chalk and have failed to cash 6 of their L/7 vs NFC West opposition. Add to that the Cards are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 2 point or more home pups.
AMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 10-1 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of ARIZONA.
NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 16-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arizona to cover
|12-24-22||Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs||10-24||Loss||-110||76 h 27 m||Show|
Kansas City clinched the AFC West last week, and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here this week vs a Seattle side Im sure they are overlooking. As the season winds down the Chiefs could start to rest some of their walking wounded more often and with Seattle still with an outside chance to make the playoffs I expect Pete Carrolls Seahawks will play hard here and get us the cover. .
Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992.
Carroll is 19-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
KANSAS CITY is 4-21 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 season
Carroll is 19-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE
Carroll is 12-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE
Reid is 2-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY
NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 18-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate.
Seahawks to cover
|12-24-22||Saints v. Browns -2.5||17-10||Loss||-120||65 h 40 m||Show|
Cleveland has Watkins back under center- Browns are 2-1 since Watson returned. He completed 18 of 28 passes for 161 yards in a 13-3 victory against Baltimore in his home debut in nasty conditions last Saturday. With this Saturday includes a 48 percent chance of snow, winds gusting beyond 30 mph and a high temperature of 13 degrees before factoring wind chill its going to be a ugly weather situation one that does not favor the dome side New Orleans.
Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win which was the case last time out.
Browns are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 8-1 L/9 vs AFC South opposition.
Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-24 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS ( after playing a game at home this season.
NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering.
NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 38-9 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.
Play on Browns to cover
|12-24-22||Giants +4.5 v. Vikings||24-27||Win||100||54 h 9 m||Show|
Last week the Vikings garnered a huge come from behind win scoring 33 points to outlast the Indianapolis Colts by a 39-36 count. That clinched their division and play off birth and now Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation that could easily effect them here today vs a hungry NY Giants side. It must also be noted that Vikings have been out yarded in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron and have been involved in 10 one score games this season. I know the Gmen may not inspire us, but they have cashed 7 of 9 as dogs, under HC Dabol and are viable investment options in this spot play. .
Vikings are 1-6 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 16-37 L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Giants to cover
|12-24-22||Seahawks v. Chiefs OVER 49||10-24||Loss||-110||54 h 44 m||Show|
These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks have played scorched earth all out offensive slugfests in recent meetings going 5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined average score of 62.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the 2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.
Play on the OVER
|12-24-22||Bengals v. Patriots +3||22-18||Loss||-100||53 h 19 m||Show|
New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.
Play on Patriots to cover
|12-23-22||Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5||27-17||Loss||-110||23 h 16 m||Show|
Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC.
Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg.
|12-22-22||Jaguars +1.5 v. Jets||19-3||Win||100||24 h 15 m||Show|
The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind ,QB Trevor Lawrence who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage, (14 TDs, 1 int) going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover.
Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover
|12-22-22||Air Force +4 v. Baylor||30-15||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
Air Force behind their triple option offense is ranked No. 1 in the nation in Time of Possession and Im betting they burn plenty of clock time and slow down Baylors offensive prowess because of breaking up their flow. The Fly boys are also No. 1 team in the nation in Overall Defense and must not be disrespected in their ability to slow down a strong Baylor attack… The Falcons have also had great success in Bowl games cashing 10 of their last 13 bowl games. With Big 12 sides just 0-3 L/3 vs Military schools and Baylor having lost 5 of their L/7 here at this venue SU its an easy decision to grab the points with the under rated underdog.
Calhoun is 29-11 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE
NFL Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 75-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Air Force to cover
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +4||23-44||Win||100||28 h 46 m||Show|
New Orleans Bowl - Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Western Kentuckys explosive big play offense can do damage against the best of Defenses. Im usually a proponent of strong defenses in Bowl games, but like I said the Hilltoppers can make strong Ds like South /Alabama owns look very average as the football program has registered 350 or more yards of offense in 27 straight games.
S ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record .
W KENTUCKY is 21-9 ATS L/30 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. W KENTUCKY is 32-13 ATS L/45 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Helton is 15-6 ATS in road games in games played on turf as the coach of W KENTUCKY.
Western Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS in bowl games vs. .666 or better opposition and are a bankroll expanding 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. Sun Belt foes and 11-3 ITS against Bowl sides since last season.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover
|12-20-22||Toledo v. Liberty +4||21-19||Win||100||24 h 13 m||Show|
Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Liberty Im betting is being under estimated here in their abilities to pick up a straight up win and more importantly a cover even though they finished a down not as the team looked disappointed that they may lose their coach Freeze to a power 5 team, that dis materialize and now Im betting they will be ready to play.LIBERTY is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.LIBERTY is 37-19 ATS in non-conference games .Liberty is 3-0 SU against MAC sides L/3 seasons. Freeze is 9-1 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002,Candle is 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of TOLEDO.
MAC Bowl sides like Toledo are just 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. opponents like Liberty coming off a loss.
Play on Liberty to cover
|12-19-22||Rams v. Packers -7||12-24||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs to a 17-16 victory over the Raiders. However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic Lambeau Field Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents and when he is coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career .
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.
Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Play on Green Packers to cover
|12-19-22||Connecticut +11 v. Marshall||14-28||Loss||-110||27 h 33 m||Show|
Myrtle Beach Bowl - Brooks Stadium - Conway, SC
The Uconn Huskies played well this season and got bowl eligibility under first year HC Mora who has got this group to play disciplined tough football. It must be noted that first year HC s have cashed 10 of their L14 Bowls as double-digit dogs . Here today, Im betting UConn stays fairly competitive vs the lowly No. 127 in the nation Red Zone Offense.
CONNECTICUT is 19-6 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Play on UConn to cover