We have a interesting set up from a recent trends historical data base of late from tonights tilt featuring the Green Bay Packers vs the KC Chiefs.  Note: Sunday and Monday night tilts have gone under in 23 of 26 games this season and have cashed to the under in  15 straight games . In the last two seasons the under has been a cash cow grabbing the dough from the books  in 32  of the  35 opportunities.

Also the under has cashed  in 24 of the 29 games for a 83% conversion rate with   NFL sides like Green Bay  off back-to-back underdog victories  . 

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on a grass field this season with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored..

KC previous to their last game vs Vegas in a 31-17 win had done under 6 straight times. 

Im bucking these types of trends and instead will ride with the tide.

Play under

The Chiefs have a recent history of not performing optimally off one win exact  going  2-9 ATS  including 1-5 ATS road games . Kansas City is  also 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win and is 0-7 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

(Packers won last week as dogs and the Chiefs polished off Vegas by DDS as favs.) On  the fliside  the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3 or more  points with HC Matt LaFleur on the sidelines. Also  Packers QB QB Jordan Love owns a  3-0 SU/ATS  in his young career hosting a  non-conference opponent.  LaFleur is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of GREEN BAY.

Add to that GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season and is s 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season , As well as GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season . 

.NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 31-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Green Bay to cover

Cleveland has played low scoring games at home this season, but have gone over the total in all 5 of their road tilts with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Last week Cleveland played in Denver, and that brings into play a situation where non division road  teams that get a whiff of fresh breathable air after coming from the Mile Hight city are 9-0-1 over dating back 4 seasons. Im betting a Cleveland team that has not done much scoring here of late  to feel rejuvenated and come out here swinging  and put more points on the board than the lines-makers expect.  Meanwhile the  Rams are a side that is finally getting their offense in gear off scoring 37 points last time out will primed to keep that train going. McVay is 12-4 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored.

Play over

The Tampa Bays Bucs' will be with out three top tier    defenders for this  this game: LB Lavonte David (groin), LB Devin White (foot) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle) making a inept Carolina D, more proficient. Thats not a good omen considering  The Bucs D since they  came offt heir  bye  in Week 6,  rank last in the NFL in EPA/play (0.069) On the flipside the Bucks offense with Bake Mayfield at the helm have proven to be bad bets when favored cashing just 13 of 38 times for a go against 65% conversion rate for his batting backers. With that said, Ill recommend we take the points with a Carolina team that has not pressure on them what so ever, as their play off hopes are already dead in the water. 

)TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS L/10  vs. struggling  passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att in the second half of the season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 97-47 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 87-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road pups with one or less wins entering their eighth through 12th contest of the season are 63-30-5 (68%) ATS since 2003, covering by an veage  3.6 points per game.

Play on Carolina to cover

Hey I know the Washington D has looked atrocious of late , but the coaching staff have really been focusing on  slowing down their game  and for a more  focused concerted effort on being  more physical and disciplined on defense. Yes, I also know how explosive Miami has been, but with this being their 2nd straight away game a little bit of regression must be expected from this road weary group, playing a in division matchup. Only one of the Fins last 7 games has eclisped this totals offering and Im betting on another one staying under the number. the L/3 meetings here in Washington between these sides has stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored. Rivera is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or better  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 36 ppg .Rivera is 11-1 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 26-9 UNDER L/35 against NFC East division opponents with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

Broncos have now won 5 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU and deserve respect here as underdogs this week vs the Texans. Nothing comes easily for the Texans this season, and Im betting if they get the win here this week, it wont come easily. Advantage taking the points. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more  PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

DENVER is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 and won the most recent meeting here in Texas. 

Payton is 13-4 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Denver to cover

When you see a Detroit Lions game you want almost automatically look for reasons to bet the over, but this is not one of those games here in New Orleans vs the inept offense of the Saints that are averaging  just 18.3 ppg at home this season. Note  When team from the  NFC   are non-division Conference road favorites the total has failed to be eclipsed 9 of the L/10 times. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 28 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 UNDER  in December games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 30.5 ppg scored. 

Allen is 9-1 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored.

Campbell is 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (DETROIT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

The Lions looked bad in their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers, and have shown alot of signs of weakness at times this season despite of the consistent accolades they get from the media. From a trends perspectivee the Lions have also failed to cover 5 of their L/6 off a SU chalk loss

   . Meanwhile, the Saints are desperate and need a victory badly to  stay inNFC Playoff race.as well as NFC South contention . I know the Saints have not looked good of late, but they are  New  s 6-0 ATS when coming off back-to-back SUATS defeats and are  7-2 ATS in this series and 4-0 ATS when getting points .  NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS L/20  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season

DETROIT is 16-31 ATSas a road favorite since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 45-91 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover

Florida State has average 38.3 ppg this season while Louisville has scored and average of 33 ppg and an average of 36 ppg on turf. My projections see the Cardinal/Florida State both scoring 28 plus points making this totals offering vulnerable  . Note: LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average fo 71.3 ppg scored. FLORIDA ST L/18 when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 60.5 ppg go on the board. 

Note:  Cardinal  last three matchups to end the regular season - vs. Virginia, at Miami and vs. Kentucky - saw them  Cardinal give  up and average of 31.0 points and 403.0 yards per game. Even with a third string QB expected to play, Im betting the Seminoles do enough damage to get this score to eclipse the total. 

LOUISVILLE L/25 games  after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games have seen a combined average of 58.6 ppg scored. Brohm is 20-5 OVER   when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 10-1 OVER  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 72.4 ppg scored. 

Play over

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LOUISVILLE) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

This is biggest spread in the history of the Big 10 Championship game. This behemoth line is what we get to bet in here with Iowa . Considering Big 10 chalk has failed to cover 8 of the L/12 events , it becomes obvious they we may have some top tier value with a team with a top tier D, playing at home. It thus must be noted that HC Harbaugh vs top tier Ds, who are .800 or better opposition allowing less  than 12.5 PPG, is just  1-5 ATS as a  big chalk fav  of -18  plus points. After taking on the Buckeyes last week in a close win Im not sure Michigan will be 100%  after that physical game and could also be in an emotional letdown state at the worst possible time. Im not saying the Hawkeyes will win, but covering is definitely a strong possibility here.Ferentz is in 32  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA has seen a average ppg diff of - 3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Statistical analysis based on recent performances might make these teams seem closely matched. But from an empirical  view point home field advantage and what my power rankings suggest is the more talented side, laying this little lumber makes for a viable wagering opportunity with a team that has been ranked top 25 for much of this season. Add to that SMU QB SMU's star quarterback, Preston Stone, broke his fibula in last week's battle  with Navy. The Mustangs will now turn to redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings who despite of being talented is just not as prolific as Stone. 

Tulane is 9-0 ATS L/9 as  a favorite of 7 points or less. SMU is 0-7 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-7 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games. 

Road underdogs (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-35 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Im doing the unthinkable and taking Georgia a program that has won 29 straight games to take out Nick Sabans Alabama this week and more importantly to cover. My power rankings suggest the Bulldogs are the best team in the country, and despite of Alabama looking good down the stretch, did not look like one of HC Sabans  more cohesive or even talented groups that  he has mentored in his long coaching career. That was most evident to me in the Tides loss to Texas , a side that is of the top tier variety, but not in the same spectrum as Georgia. 

Key : No opponent reached 150 rushing yards against Georgia the past three seasons and no opponent has scored more than 23 points total against the Bulldogs. 

Bottom line: This is by far the best defense Alabama has faced this season .On the flipside the  Bulldogs  get to crack open the gaps behind RB  K Milton  vs a Tide side  that has given up more than 200 yards rushing in two of the last four games.  Milton has rushed for 349 yards on 41 carries and 5 touchdowns the last three games with an 8.5 yards per carry average.

Saban is 7-20 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.Saban is 9-18 ATSL/27 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia to cover 

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels  host the Boise State Cowboys this afternoon are playing at home . The Rebels have the better record which sets up a nice trend to continue as coach Odom is 12-1 SU at home in his career in games in where  his side owns  the better win percentage on the season, which UNLV does. On the season UNLV is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the underdog role. Yes,  I know Boise State has won 3 straight but that kind of run has not historically been kind to them as they are 3-6 L/9 SU off a .3 or more game  SU/ATS positive run. 

CFB Road favorites (BOISE ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 43-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover

Liberty own an explosive offense that cannot be easily stopped not even from strong defensive units like New Mexico State. The Flames have averaged 39 ppg on offense at home this season, and Im betting they hit in the 30s again today. Meanwhile, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 ppg this season, and will be forced into opening up , which Im betting results in a higher scoring tilt then the lines-makers are expecting. Note: Liberty's D, I would not describe as being of the top tier variety despite of their 12-0 record as has been evident lately, when allowing UTEP, 28 points and Mass 25 points , so I wont be surprised to see the Aggies put at least that many points on the board. Note: LIBERTY is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 74.3 ppg scored. NEW MEXICO ST is 6-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.8 ppg scored.

NEW MEXICO ST is 28-14  L/42 OVER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 64.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team  they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks  teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.

Carroll is 20-10 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

 DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

The Vikings had their 5 game win streak snapped last time out, and now enter this home game vs a side they beat earlier this season, but saw them out stated while putting just 220 yards of offense on the board. The Vikings /Horse Shoe might be starting to loosen, and the proverbial wheels looks ready to fall off the cart. Remember that above mentioned game that the Vikings won saw Bears QB Justin Fields get injured and with him fully healthy again I like the Bears odds of being competitive. Note the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on MNF when coming off a loss.  

Vikings are 3-9 ATS L/12 as division home chalk. Bears are 6-1 ATS L/7 Monday night away games. 

Play on Chicago to cover

Prime time games have been fairly low scoring this season with 26 of 34 games failing to eclipse the offered totals number. The Ravens are off playing a Thursday night game last week, and this sets in play a positive under trend as  NFL away sides  off a Thursday nighter as hosts  have  eclipsed the total only 5 of 28 times  L/3 seasons.  Another strong trend associated with this tilt shows AFC  teams like Baltimore with bye week up next  have gone under in their L/13 opportunities. Also  NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 6-27 UNDER  L/10 seasons under for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.2 ppg. Harbaugh is 17-4 UNDER ( after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS are 23-7 UNDER L/30  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 32-16 UNDER L/48 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 7-0 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Buffalo has had a bit of disappointing season but still rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense and should be respected here against a foe in a letdown spot after a huge upset win vs KC last time out. NFL home sides  who pulled an  upset vs the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game like the Eagles did , have failed to cash 6 straight times, dating back to the 2020 season. BUFFALO is 14-4 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . McDermott is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 58-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cash

 The Chiefs are off a MNF defeat and Im betting will be primed to play a top tier brand of D, here against Vegas that will help keep this tilt under the offered totals number. NFL favorites off a Monday nighter  home loss   have gone a under in 8 straight games  in the last three seasons. Note: Vegas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 overall.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this seasons with a combined average of  38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

LAS VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER in dome games this season with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.LAS VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on turf this season with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 71-37 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Both the Eagles and the Bills have viable offenses averaging more than 26 ppg in out put. BUFFALO is the underdog here which is important considering they have gone 8-0 OVER  as underdogs of +2 or more points in the last four seasons with a combined average of 67.5 ppl scored. On the flip side Sunday NFC Conference home favorites of  3 pts or more like the  Eagles against  AFC Conference opponents like the Bills have eclipsed the Total 9 of the L/10 times. Considering the Eagles home games have seen a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored it will be an easy decision here to go with an over wagering what my projections estimate to be a score that hits in the low 50s. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppl scored. My projections also estimate both sides will score at least 20 or more points which is important as the Eagles are 12-1 OVER L/13 when that happens with the combined score clicking in at 61.8 ppg. 

Play over

Joe Burrows is out for the season, and the Bengals as a group Im sure in a letdown mentality and that Im betting plays out here today against a hungry Steelers group that must not be understimated . Note:  Bengals will start veteran backup Jake Browning who will make his first start in just his third game since entering the league in 2019.this is important because QBs  making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 straight-up (SU) in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.

Steelers to cover 

I know both offenses are expected to have a low output production today, but even with the Steelers offensive woes and the Bengals QB precarious situation, my projections still estimate a score in the high 30s which gives close to a FG edge on this offered number. Note: PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER   versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER L/30 seasons with the combined average score of 48 ppg scored.

Play over

Colorado needs a win to become Bowl eligible but they just seem like a team that does not  perform well under pressure and have been inconsistent all season long. Here tonight against a Hawaii side that has improved as the season has progressed and enter this game on a two game winning streak Im betting they choke. Note: Hawaii is  5-0 SU in their L/5 home finales the L/5 years and with that said,  Im betting on the underdog getting points.

Play on Hawaii to cover

The California Bears need a win here today at the  UCLA to become Bowl eligible. With the Bruins off a big win vs USC last week   by a  38- 20 score Im betting the Bruins are vulnerable to a letdown vs a hungry side. Note : the the  Bruins  are  1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. . Cal Bears HC  Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS L/18 as a home dog.  Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win and get the nod here in desperation mode. 

CALIFORNIA is 23-10 ATS L/33 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Kelly is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of UCLA.

 UCLA is 13-26 ATS ( L/39 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CALIFORNIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Cal Bears to cover

Jaguars have played well lately but are just  are 1-12 ATS following consecutive home chalk victories and  and 1-11 ATS away off consecutive home tilts.   I know Texas State is off a ugly loss last time out, but they have been very competitive this season and deserve respect here as pups. note: Texas State is  8-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. S ALABAMA is also  0-12 ATS L/12 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .

TEXAS ST is 4-0 straight up against at home vs S ALABAMA since 1992.

Texas State to cover

Virginia upset Duke last week and are now in a huge emotional letdown spot vs instate rivals Vtech and very vulnerable .

Vtech is 11-1-1 ATS.in finales , Virginia is just 0-11 SU  L/11 when facing a Hokies  side with a better record on the season. VIRGINIA TECH is 32-16 ATS  L/48 as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

CFB road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less  TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 89-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Vtech to cover

James Madison had their undefeated season abruptly come to end vs App State last time and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Coastal Carolina squad that had a 5 game win streak end last time out. With  Coastal having a 7-4 record  they need a win  to get them to the Sun Belt title game vs. Troy and will be ready to play all out football here this week vs a  program ineligible to play post season football this season/  CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JAMES MADISON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 62-31 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

 Wisconsin is Bowl eligible after last weeks win while Minnesota desperately needs a victory to get a Bowl invite. Im betting the home, side has the edge. I know the Gophers have not looked good of late, but it must be noted that HC Fleck is 9-1 SU/ATS when coming off a pair of losses and than playing at home.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS  after being out-gained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Minnesota to cover

Rice according to my power rankings sis the superior side here today and the line should be closer to -7 for the home side. 

RICE is 21-7 ATS   in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game.RICE is 27-10 ATS  L/27  in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%. ). 

FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

RICE is 15-1 ATS L/16 in home games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. 

CFB Home favorites (RICE) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 44-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on the Rice to cover

This game has some huge implications as the winner will get to the College Football Playoff semifinals.   With Michigan QB  JJ Macarthy (ankle) less than 100%  and going  just  12-for-23 via pass including 1  interception   against the Terrapins” last week some doubts about his ability to play vs this type of prime time Ohio State D  loom large . The Buckeyes  have been solid dogs in the past in n Big Ten Title games cashing 10 straight times as pups.  .   We all know how good the /Wolverines D  as is evident by allowing 9 points and 253 yards per game. But the Buckeyes football program has won 15 of their L/18 SU  versus conference opposition that allow less than 10 ppg.  Wolverine iconic HC Harbaugh will once again not be on the sidelines for this big game-  which is not a good omen for a side that has cashed only 2 of  their L/ 9 opportunities  ATS vs undefeated conference opponents . 

OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120  or lesws rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (OHIO ST) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-14 ATS L/.5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio State to cover

Penn State continues to struggle against the top tier teams in the Big 10 losing to both Ohio State and Michigan this season. However, against the lower tier programs seem to always come to play in merciless fashion. Michigan State is a team that suddenly finds itself in the lower echilon of the conference and with nothing really to play for could easily come out flat here today and crushed by a frustrated Litany Lions side that will want to make a statement.PENN ST is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at + 27.1. 

Play on Penn State to cover

After a hard fought narrow win against Florida last time out, Im betting Missouri is vulnerable here today against Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde football team in Arkansas. Recent history also tells a story of Tigers futility as they are 0-5 ATS L/5   in Last Road Games,  and are   0-6 ATS away in their final tilts of the campaign. ARKANSAS is 4-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI  at home since 1992.

ARKANSAS is 25-10 ATS L/35 in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

After starting their season 8-0 this Air Force side has looked flat of late, with their current 3 game losing streak starting with a ugly make no sense loss to Army. That embarrassing defeat  and deflating loss to their military foe has reverberated into two more losses.  The 2nd loss came in Hawaii and I can see this group just licking their wounds and just laying back on paradise island  and not preparing well for the Rainbow game where they looked lifeless or maybe hungover. Last weeks loss vs UNLV had them back on track despite of negative3 31-27 count.  Now this week against the Broncos Im expecting Air Force will fly high again and possibly even pull of the upset vs a side that they matchup well against. .  BOISE ST is 3-11 ATS after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons (which was the case last time out)Calhoun is 34-13 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Play on Air Force to cover

Utah State was smashed last week in a 35-point home loss to Boise State in embarrassing fashion and are now in a key bounce back situation vs New Mexico this week, as they desperately need a win to become bowl eligible. Utah State is  6-0 SU/ATS series run and according to my power rankings should be more than TD fav here. I know the Lobos took out Fresno State last week in. big upset win, but will now be in a letdown spot and very vulnerable vs a hungry side. Note: Lobos’ 0-7 SU L/7 in games coming off an upset win as a dog of 16 or more points and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 at home under those perimeters. 

Play on Utah State to cover

The Jets have dropped three straight games and are turning to journeyman Tim Boyle under center when they face the Dolphins in a Black Friday clash at East Rutherford, N.J. Im betting he will be a blast of fresh air for this stale Jets attack. I know Miami has done well this season, offensively but the Jets D has been mostly solid and Im betting hold up well here in the cold windy conditions today against a team not so ready to play in the cool weather. 

NY JETS are 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. NY JETS are 29-14 ATS L/43 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-9 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

TCU has obviously not had a great season, especially considering their appearance the  CFB Playoff championship game last year. But with the experience on the sidelines, with the coaching staff and with the context of desperation in play here as the Frogs need a win to become Bowl eligible, Im betting on them putting alot of fight into this tilt and they won't go down without a fight. Note: The Frogs have covered their L/4 trips to Norman to play the Sooners and Im backing them to continue that run this Friday.

TCU is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team (TCU) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover

The Hawkeyes are the 2023 Big Ten West champs yet are being placed as dogs here vs a Nebraska side that despite of needing a win here badly, are not a football program that has a recent history of winning games clutch or otherwise. Hey I know Iowa has problems scoring , but their D, is outstanding and should give a pedestrian Nebraska offense a load of  problems here today in a game I doubt they deserve to be favorites in. Iowa has won 7 of the L/8 in this series, and must not be underestimated in the underdog role.

IOWA is 19-7 in their L/26  road game where the total is 42 or less have seen a +2 ppg diff .

CFB road team (IOWA) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover

Its chilly in Massachusetts this time of year, and the Canes Cristobal and company may find their welcome from Boston College chilly as well. The Canes are off 3 hard fought losses, and doubt they have much gas left in the proverbial tank. Note :The Canes  are 0-5 ATS  L/5 as a favorite when coming off three losses-exact,. I know BC has not been a very consistent side this season, but at home have a recent history of being a solid dog especially at home covering 5 in q row as +8 or more pup. 

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on BC to cover

I know everyone is in love with the SF 49ers , but Im one of these guys who still believes they are a bit over rated. Note:  Im betting this is a close battle and getting a TD here is viable investment opportunity Seattle HC  Pete Carroll   as a home dog in his NFL career, is  9-2 ATS as a when getting f 4 or more points. SEATTLE is 17-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO  L/23 at home.

NFL Road favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-44 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover

Dallas /Washington games have seen some big total scores go on the board here in Dallas in the past with each combined score easily eclipsing this offering and Im betting nothing changes here today. The combined average score of those tilts rings in at 60.7 ppg. The Commanders own the worst scoring D in the NFL and the Boyz will do damage. But Im also betting the Commanders will also do their share of scoring in what Im betting will be a more back and forth tilt than the linebackers expect. Note: DALLAS: 10-0vOVER  as division  home chalk of  3 points or more and WASHINGTON: 6-0 OVER as division  road dogs of  3 pts or more.  

Play over

Dallas has a long history of less than stellar Thanks Giving Day outings as is evident by a current  5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS run the  the last 12  seasons. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Commanders seem to bring their best stuff for big games against top tier sides like the Cowboys. Hey I know Dallas has looked explosive of late, but it must be noted that from a historical angle they are in a play against situation.Favorites (DALLAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 11-33 ATS 5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  in November games over the last 3 seasons.WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  in road games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.WASHINGTON is 35-19 ATS L/54 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.DALLAS is 16-38 ATS L/54   after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.

Play on Washington to cover

This might seem like a crooked number at just over a key TD  offering , but the Lions are by far the better side, and a line closer to -10 should be on the board, making this a viable lay. Note: Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points qnd  facing  sub .500 squads , are  6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS win which the Lions are. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Motown to cover

The Chiefs matchup well here  as their top tier defense  will Im betting slow down the  Philadelphia Receivers. On the flipside KCS start QB Mahomes  could easily have a field day  vs Eagles defensive secondary , that  ranks 25th against short passes,  and 28th against the slot   and 28th over the middle of the field, including  32nd against tight ends -which wont be a good omen against  KCs Kelce. . Bottom line is KC has won 4 straight meetings in this series and I dont see things changing this week, with home field advantage on the Chiefs side. At -140 on the ML we have an edge here tonight in Arrow Head. Key Note: Eagles QB Hurts has some nagging injuries and is not 100% for this tilt. 

NFL Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better ) are 7-30 L/30 seasons for. a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the KC Chiefs 

The Rams in my humble opinion continue to get to much respect from the pundits and betting public and even the lines-makers. Yes, the Rams are rested, but their overall inconsistencies and HC McVay  poor coaching decisions just make them bad bets .Meanwhile, Seattle is a side, that has taken care of business against these types of teams, and with a top tier coach in Carrol on the side lines deserve respect here as a pickem or slight fav according to my power rankings.  LA RAMS are 0-7 ATS in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for ago against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Seahawks to cover

 The Bills are surprisingly just 5-5 on the season , and really need to get the wheels moving on their season . Their piss poor efforts are thanks in part to turnovers and a banged up D.  Now n desperation mode  Im and playing at home Im betting they come up big here this week vs a Jets side that is playing their 2nd straight road game after a loss at Las Vegas last time out. It must be noted that the Jets are just  1-8 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss and 1-6 ATS as a underdog after a chalk rating  in their previous tilt. NY JETS are 1-8 ATS  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NY JETS are 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Buffalo to cover

The Jags look like weak favs here as they are  just  2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as division home favorites. I know Tennessee is off two straight losses, but it must be noted that HC Verbal has only failed to cover 1 of his L/8 as an underdog when coming off back-to-back defeats. The public is all over the Jags after the Titans miserable effort last week, but my data base has picked up on a NFL  situational trend that is successful 61% of the time as it focuses on teams of that kind of ugly outing. 

TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Pederson is 6-16 ATS  in weeks 10 through 13 in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 16-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NF Lteam vs the money line (JACKSONVILLE) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. ( Tennessee lost 20-6 last week at Tampa Bay)

Play on Titans to cover

Texans are off an emotionally charged 30-27 upset of the Bengals in Cincinnati last week and Im betting will be in a letdown situation this Sunday against a Arizona squad with QB Kyle Murray back under center. Yes, he started a little slow after the long lay off last week, but this guy is dangerous two way threat with his legs and arm and makes this Cards side dangerous in the underdog role . Arizona is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the AFC South. ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 6-20 ATS  in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game. HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arizona to cover

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Washington ranks  31 st allowing  27.4 ppg and the NY Giants are ranked 29th allowing  26.6 ppg. Washington has on occasion shown some offensive pop and Im betting they do damage this week, vs a shell shocked group of Giants, while the pedestrian offense of the giants finally gets a defense they can handle. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY GIANTS) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points are 45-19 OVER L/30 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

Arizona State has only averaged 17.7 ppg on offense this season, and will try very hard to slow the pace of this game down, via slow snap counts and their running game as they play for survival here vs an explosive foe, and that Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are projecting. 

ARIZONA ST is 26-11 L/37 UNDER  vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (ARIZONA ST) - after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-4 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40 points per game scored. 

Play on the under 

Minnesota got caught looking ahead to this game with Ohio State this week, and were flattened by Purdue  . That was the Gophers second straight loss but there is good news from  a historical trends chart that I use. Notably Minnesota  is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses,  and HC  Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points,  and has coincidentally covered  4-0 straight as a double-digit pup  versus undefeated  opposition. Meanwhile, Ohio State Im betting will be looking ahead to their battle with Michigan next week and could easily find themselves more concentrated on staying healthy and play with less enthusiasm than usual.

Fleck is 20-6 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 13-4 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992.

CFBroad team (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 87-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The better team with the better record here is North Carolina vs a over rated Clemson side that should be. no more than a FG fav here based on home field advantage in Dearth Valley and not necessarily the talent gap. Mack Brown’s 16 -5- ATS  in his career as a underdog with the better record, with 13 SU wins during that span, including 5-0 S/UATS the last five tilts. North Carolina has won the stats battles this season in 9 of 10 games and get the nod here to cover the number.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover

West Virginia has allowed 18.2 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hold the inconsistent offense of the Cincinnati Bearkats within that range today.  Look for key mode of moving thte ball to be their fairly efficient run game , and slower snap counts to see them try to grind out  conservative game plan. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers average 213.8 rushing yards per game, No. 7 in the country and Im sure they will pound the ball again which in turn will eat alot of clock time. Lots of rsuh action makes for what Im projecting to be a combined score that stays on the low side of this totals offeirng. 

Brown is 12-4 UNDER  in November games as the coach of W VIRGINIA with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons are  43.3 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. with pf 46.4 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored..

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W VIRGINIA) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-8 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored. 

Play under

Louisville is a dangerous side at home but are just 0-4 ATS in road games this season are  0-5-1 ATS as road favs the last two years.  Here against Miami Fl, a side that is quite high in power rankings Im betting they have the edge here at home where they have covered 5 of their L/7 as dogs or pickem. LOUISVILLE is 0-6 AT  in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 2-0 SU L/2 at home in this series. 

Play on Miami to cover 

 Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night with both sides entering off a loss. Baltimore claimed a 27-24 victory at Cincinnati in Week 2 and now Im betting on an even wider margin of victory in the rematch. CINCINNATI is 3-14 ATS L/17 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

NFL  team (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/40 seasons for a 95% conversion for bettors with a average ppg diff  of +10 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. . 

NFL road teams (CINCINNATI) - with a pathetic defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover

Akron has lost all 6 of their road games this season by an average of 15 ppg, while their opponents Eastern Michigan have played their best football at Ryerson Stadium this season where they have won all 4 games. From a projection standpoint I have made the home side a -7 favorite based on some metrics the linesmakers are not using, thus giving us an edge by a FG over this offering, making this viable wagering opportunity laying points at what I perceive to be a discount . Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS L/11 meetings in this series and get the green light again. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 6-63 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 2-29 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.5 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover

Denver played a big game last time out upsetting the KC chiefs but this has not been a success-full situation for the Broncos in the past as their  0-9 ATS  record would indicate when coming off an underdog victory. Add to that their  a ugly 0-7 ATS L/7 record  in this series vs the Bills. I know the Broncos are well rested but the Bills are not in a good mood after some  sub par efforts and recent loss to the Bengals last time out, and will be primed to bounce back in a big way in front of their home town fans in prime time action. Buffalo also owns a  7-0 SUATS L/7  as chalk vs a  the AFC West. Buffalo  has struggled to cash for their betting backers of late failing in 3 straight opportunities,, but  when this has happened to them previously the Bills are cash friendly  14-1 ATS L/15  against opposition  coming off a victory and  9-0 ATS  playing as hosts. 

McDermott is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more are 21-90 L/30 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Lay the points with the Buffalo Bills 

Jets D, is obviously their strong point and it will be their stopping units that Im betting stop the Raiders cold . A new interim coach had the Raiders playing all out football last week in a lopsided win, vs a hapless looking Giants team last week.However, I now expect all the teams previous inconsistencies to be on full display this Sunday Previous to last weeks loss the Jets had won 3 straight and according to my power rankings are the superior side here today. 

LAS VEGAS is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. 

Play on NY Jets to cover

The Jaguars (6-2) put their  five-game winning streak on the line Sunday when they host the 49ers (5-3), a team that has lost three straight following a 5-0 start. However, from a-recent historical perspective this sis a good spot to support the 49ers . Note: HC  Kyle Shanahan’ is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road off 3 consecutive ATS losses. This Niners team is just to talented to stay down for long and Im betting they rebound today in a big way. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons while Jacksonville  is 7-21 ATS L/28 against NFC West division opponents. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-13 ATS L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers

Joshua Dobbs makes his first start for his new team as the Vikings host the Saints (5-4) on Sunday .  Dobbs was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns , after replacing the youngster Hall, but now as a starter will have his hands full with a tough Saints D. His relative inexperience as a NFL starter will Im betting hinder him. The Saints lead the NFC South over the Falcons (4-5) and Buccaneers (3-5) and have momentum and motivation on their sides as they enter on a two game win streak. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS L/30   in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.  

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud set a single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards in last week’s come from behind victory vs the Buccaneers. The kid looks like he is the real deal and with the team riding high after that win will ride that momentum into this game against Bengals side that is in a emotional letdowns situation after last weeks all out effort and win vs the Buffalo Bills. HOUSTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI in Ohio. 

Houston to cover

We know the Niners can score but after three straight losses you can bet the team will rest their prospects on a big time effort from a rested D, off a bye week. It must be noted NFL road chalk   having suffered 3 or more consecutive  losses  have gone under 12 of the L/13 times darting back to the 2019 season. The Jags despite of a 5 game win streak Im betting will find the offensive sledding tough today but I have enough respect in the Jags D, that SF most likely will also not have any obscene production keeping this combined score from eclipsing this number. 

 NFC road favorites of  3 points or more like the 49ers  have gone  under  in  16 of the L/17 times vs AFC opposition like the Jags , when the offered  Total  is 47  or less . When both  teams  are off their Bye Week like these two side are the under is  0-7 when the totals offering is  46 points or less. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 63-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NF Lteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

All three games played here between these sides have stayed under the total. 

Play under

Colts can score but their D is very suspect and Im betting even the pedestrian offense of the Pats will be able to take advantage of them. Meanwhile, the one positive New England has exhibited this season is a fairly consistent D. The Patriots have shown some signs of brilliance as was the case when they took out Buffalo by a 29-25 score a few weeks ago and must not be underestimated with a HC like Belichick  whose Patriots teams are 3-0 in international games all-time.

NEW ENGLAND is 21-8 ATS L/29  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the second half of the season. 

Play on New England to cover

After a back forth high scoring battle against USC last week in a victory by a 52-42 count Im now looking for immediate offensive regression in a letdown spot by the Huskies who could easily find themsleves looking ahead to their big game against Oregon State next week. Huskies are 0-12 ATS  L/12 after facing USC and 0-4 ATS L/4 before facing Oregon State. Washington is 0-4-1 ATS L/10 as a conference home fav of 10 points or less. 

Utah is 5-2 ATS L/7 in this series. Utah is 9-1 ATS L/10 as a conference road dog of 10 points or less.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 63-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Utah to cover

Purdue has lost 4 straight and have the worst record in the Big 10. They are playing with little or no motivation at his point and are fade material in their current form. PURDUE is 2-9 ATS   in home games over the last 2 seasons.PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.

Fleck is 7-0 ATS  in road games after a loss by 6 or less points in all games he has coached since 1992 which was the case last time out in a 27-26 loss to Illinois. 

Play on Minnesota to win

Clemson got by Notre Dame last time out to snap a two game losing streak. The win did not come easily, as the Tigers offense stalled in the 2nd half . Now in an emotional letdown scenario Im betting the home side is vulnerable and Im betting covering this spread vs an improving Georgia Tech squad will be a difficult chore. Both these teams sport identical records and both are vying for a bowl appearance, so a closer than expected game is my projection.

Key is 9-2 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.

GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 10-2 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog 

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 season. Clemson is 1-5 ATS coming off a win. 

Play on Georgia Tech to cover

Texas Tech has owned this series winning 18 of the last 20 meetings   against Kansas, having been favored 18 times. In the  two games  they were the underdog, they notched wins  both times SU. Tech has also only failed to cover one time in this L/7 as a conference dog of 7 points or less and deserve respect here to cover behind a QB in QB Behren Morton, who, has thrown for 978 yards and 10 TDS in his L/5 games . 

CFB Home favorites (KANSAS) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Tech to cover

Michigan enters this game with a perfect 9-0 record but from a historical standpoint teams with this  type of W/L stat  l are just 6-20-1 ATS when taking on a  side a with top tier defense,  that allow  20.5 ppg or less since 1982. With all the crap surrounding the Wolverines for cheating , a cloud now rests over this program, and could easily effect their play vs a motivated and very strong opponent playing at home. 

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 37-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (PENN ST) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 38-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on Penn State to cover

BC has won 5 straight games but against what many would consider sub par competition. However, their opponent today Virginia Tech  has not exactly set the ACC on fire, and after being humiliated in Louisville last time out by a 34-3 count don't look like viable road favs especially considering they have lost all 4 of their away games this season and have averaged just 12 ppg on offense in turf games this season. Alot of pundits are looking for reasons to fade Boston College, but from my perspective this is a hard working well coached team with alot of fight and deserve respect as home pups. Note:CFB road team vs. the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-42 L/31 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston College to cover

 Huge revenge on board for Stoops as he gets ready to get redemption for a merciless  63-3  beatdown by Saban and company the last time these two programs met. With Alabama off what must be described as their best game of the season last time out vs LSU, a letdown scenario and regression must be expected . NoteL Saban is 2-7 ATS  as conference road favorite  of 3 or more points against a .500 or better side.  Meanwhile, Kentucky is 5-0 ATS L/5  as conference  home dogs of  4 pts or more and have cashed  their L/4 home finales of the season. After watching Alabama this season I cant but keep feeling this is not a 5 star group like other incarnations of this program, and that they could fail in their attempt at a SEC championship and god forbid be upset here today,No matter what happens I strongly believe we get the cover here today by backing Kentucky. 

Play on Kentucky to cover

It has mot been a very good campaign for Ball State overall as they have garnered only two wins so far, but they have been every competitive of late cashing 3 straight times, and playing with momentum and determination.  Meanwhile, N.Illinois from a recent historical trend line has not been a very good home favorite,N.Illinois  is 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and is 0-7 ATS   as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and are off a loss last time out, in game where their defense continually let them down allowing 37 points. Momentum resides with Ball State. Northern Illinois owns  the third-best passing defense in the country, but they struggle to stop the run as is evident by allowing 167 rushing yards per game and because of that Im betting they will have issues against duel threat QB Kelly and top tier  running back Marquez Cooper . 

The Cardinals defense has been very staunch of late allowing just 19.5 points per game in their last  four trips to the gridiron. They're 33rd against the rush and 68th against the pass and could easily give N. Illinois  QB Lombardi fits here tonight .

 N Neu is 14-5 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of BALL ST. 

Ball State has won three of the last four rivalry meetings with Northern Illinois . the average ppg diff of the last 5 Stalk events have been decided by 8 points or less.

Ball State to cover

The Chargers looked very explosive last week vs the    Chicago Bears  last Sunday Night in prime time action as  QB Herbert completed 31-of- 40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions. When the Chargers top tier QB is running hot look out as even what has been on occasion a staunch NYJ defense will have it hands full. , Meanwhile, the flip-side the Jets continue to flounder offensively and Im betting they just wont be able to keep up. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 21-69 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego to cover

This pick here for me is simple. REVENGE .sweet sweet revenge- Buffalo  comes out here this week against Cincinnati \ with a playoff-loss revenge as a rallying cry.  This will be the first time in 30 games that the Bills will be lined as underdogs which is just fine with me .  With the Bengals in an emotional letdown state after last weeks big win vs the 49ers they are vulnerable here to regression, as Its hard to play with that intensity against top tier competition two weeks in a row .  I know the Bills have been in a bit of a funk of late from a ATS perspective but  Buffalo is still a highly talented group that deserves respect . BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS L/8  after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread .

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Buffalo is 5-2 SU/ATS L/7 at Cincinnati. 

Play on the Bills to cover

Both these sides are ranked top 10 on both defense and offense and are alot more closely matched than the linesmakers are suggesting. After a slow start on D to start their season, the Seahawks have allowed a total 50 points in their L/4 overall, (12.5 ppg) and have upward momentum entering this tilt. You have to remember the Seahawks took out a strong Detroit team on the road, and must not be underestimated in their prowess and grit. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Lamar Johnson has failed to cover 21 of 33 NFL home tilts . 

Carroll is 25-15 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

Baltimore is 0-5 ATS L/5 off consecutive wins.BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS  L/27 in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.BALTIMORE is 4-13 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover

Chiefs looked less than motivated   last time out  against Denver and star QB Mahomes actually failed to throw for a TD for the first time  since the 2021 season spanning 29 games.  It was a shocking loss but it must be noted that HC  Reid  is  22-9 SU in  NFL career in tilts  following a SU favorite loss, including   cashing 6 straight times of late a favorite of 7 or less points . Im betting the Chiefs were caught looking ahead to this game and will be very primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS l/13  in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more . 

In Miamis only two games vs top tier squads like the Chiefs they were blasted by DDs vs Buffalo and Philadelphia . Rinse and repeat not out of the question here.

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS   in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chiefs to cover

LATE STEAM 

QB Mikey Keene is key here to what Im betting will be a fairly conclusive home win on a short line for Fresno State. Boise State has failed to cover their L/5 roadies. 

BOISE ST is 1-8 ATS  after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI) FRESNO ST is 34-18 ATS  L/52 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.  

Fresno State to cover

The Huskies are 2-8 ATS  L/10 as road chalk and are getting a ,little to much respect here vs the  USC Trojans  who are  led by a HC Lincoln Riley .It must be noted that USCs HC  is a home pup for the first time in his career and Im sure despite of the lofty opposition will have his team ready to compete.  It must be noted that  Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opposition and 3-0 ATS as a conference-under dog. In his career Riley is also an amazing 40-3 ATS at home overall . From a historical perspective the Trojans are 9-2 ATS as underdogs vs Washington and Im betting they leave everything on the field today after what many will consider a down season for this football program. 

Riley is 21-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached .

CFB Home underdogs vs. the money line (USC) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 34-22 L/31 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on USC to cover

Rice looked good last week against top tier group from Tulane losing by a 30-28 count but more importantly covering as DD underdogs . I know their opponent SMU has galloped away to a fine season, and will see post season action, but  the Owls must not be underestimated and at with a .500 record  need some more victories for a  decent Bowl invite and are motivated to play strong here. It must also be noted that Rice is 10-1 ATS L//11 in this  series  while losing 11 of their L/12 here in Houston, including 0-9 ATS over the last nine visits to this venue. Note: Rice is also 10-0 ATS L/10 after playing Tulane .

SMU is 17-32 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.SMU is 6-20 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.SMU is 0-7 ATS  in road games after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Lashlee is 0-6 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games as the coach of SMU.

CFB Road favorites (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 81-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Rice to cover 

Bulldogs. Quarterback Mike Wright, who led Vanderbilt to a win against  UK at Kroger Field is now playing for Mississippi State.  Wright   continues to be impress with his ability to make plays and  can elude the pocket and make plays with his legs and Im betting he has another strong effort today and helps his team with higher offensive production totals than the linesmakers expect. On the flipside the Wildcats  offense  really ramped up they're aerial attack   last Saturday night. Quarterback Devin Leary had a season-high 372 yards passing vs Tennessee and wide receiver Dane Key had his best game of the season and Im betting they build on that momentum in this tilt  With the running game the Wildcats most efficient mode of moving the ball a complete game is not out of the realm of possibility which makes for a much bigger point production than is expected. All in all we have value with taking the over here today.

My projections based on some higher edge probabilities estimates a much higher output than the linesmkaers. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28+ points - Note: KENTUCKY is 51-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.  MISSISSIPPI ST is 41-2 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992.

Stoops in 48   road games as the coach of KENTUCKY has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 KENTUCKY/ (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games.are 52-16 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average score of 48.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Clemson is never easy to play. against in Death Valley, and even against  a strong Florida State football program  had a chance to win late in the game via an ugly FG attempt that missed its mark The Tigers eventually lost in OT. I know the Tigers have not looked as powerful as past incarnations, but like I said this is a tough place to play and Notre Dame already exhibited a tendency to be over whelmed in a nasty environment at Louisville in a DD loss. So its not like the Irish are invincible. Yes, I know Dabo Sweeny and company has lost 2 straight, but this HC has proven resilient in the past and has only been defeated three times a row twice in his career- the last time was back in 2010. 

NOTRE DAME is 15-34 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play.

NOTRE DAME is 1-13 ATS L/14 off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more . 

CFBP home team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors -so according to this long standing trend getting points here is viable wagering opportunity. 

Play on Clemson to cover

The visiting Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3) have had a tough go of it this season, after going to the National Championship game last year. The worst effort of the season came last time out against Kstate in a ugly 41-3 loss, however, now the Frogs will now be primed for big bounce back effort against their hosts Texas Tech  this week a side that has lost 2 Straight SU/ATS.  Note: 

Though he downplayed it, this will be the first trip back to Lubbock for TCU's Sonny Dykes as a head coach at the school where his father, Spike Dykes, won 82 games from 1986-99. This  game means alot to Dykes junior.

 TEXAS TECH is 0-6 ATS  after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (TCU) - average passing team (6.4-7.5 PYA) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games, after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-22 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU

This is a tilt between two evenly matched MAC  bottom feeders, and is being lined like a late FG will win it. Im in complete agreement with the lines-makers and thus I recommend we take the points. 

CFB road team (KENT ST) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 82-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (AKRON) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 14-27 L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kent State to cover

Buffalo after a slow start have progressively improved and have now won 3 of their L/4 overall while, covering 4 of their L/5. Early season losses  against Wisconsin and Liberty were not unexpected , but the Buffalos still were fairly competitive and did not not look out of place. Also a a win vs  pretty good Louisiana Lafayette showed me this Buffalo team deserves my respect here against their MAC rivals the Toledo Rockets tonight.  The Rockets have won 7 straight but have misfired in 6 of those games ATs.   TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS  in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Wow were the Lions ever embarrassed last time out by Baltimore. The Lions were media darlings until that game and now they are being dumped like rotten apples by these same media pundits. However the lines-makers are still believers in this Motown crew and in my opinion for good reason. After suffering that humiliating defeat the men from Detroit  now have their feet solidly planted and are ready for immediate redemption against a Vegas side that has a one dimensional offensive aerial attack that cannot run the ball  and also  a inconsistent D. DETROIT is 17-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Campbell is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game as the coach of DETROIT.

 DETROIT is 7-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.

With that said,  Im betting this is the kind of team the Lions matchup well against. Here at home the Lions are a money making machine for their backers as is evident by a  13-2-1 ATS since the  2021 campaign.  Monday Night Football sides are 31-18 ATS dating back 43 seasons  when coming off a loss of more than 21 points.   I know we are betting into a crooked line, but the true value of this number should become evident as this game unfolds, as my projections make the number  closer to -10 which gives us value on this offering.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The Cardinals have a very hard time moving the ball behind a clunky offense. as is evident by averaging just 18.1 ppg in production and have scored 9 and 10 points respectively in their L/2 games.Key Trend:  NFC Conference teams who scored 10  pts  or less in each of their last two games  have gone  under 9 straight times. 

. Thats not a good omen against a Baltimore side that is allowing just 13.9 ppg this season on D (tops in the NFL). On the flipisde, the Ravens offense has been pedestrian this season to say the least , averaging just 22.3 ppg in road tilts. I know Arizonas D, has been highly inconsistent this season, probably because of the amount of time they spend on the field, but it must be noted that BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  vs.sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. The Ravens exhibit  is a grinding style of play that eats up alot of clock time and Im betting nothing changes today.

BALTIMORE is also 9-0 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.1 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 25.2 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 13-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLbteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 69-26 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Denver lost 19-8 at Kansas City two weeks ago and now Im betting they will be competitive again here at home. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons. (Beat Chargers 31-17 last week)

DENVER is 15-3 ATS L/18 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . 

NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 13-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 at home in this series. 

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Carolina is the only winless team in the NFL so far this season, and now at home and in desperation mode against a banged up Texans squad with 11 players on the injured list which is tied with two other teams for the most in the league the Panthers have an edge. HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS L/24  vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season . 

Carolina is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. are 35-11 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

The Rams out-gained the Steelers last week and still found a way to lose, while their opponents today bounced back from a ugly loss vs the 49ers in prime time to notch a victory vs the Chargers last week. by a 20-17 count. The Rams may not inspire bettors because of their lack of consistency. However, also despite of being a rebuilding mode, still have a hardcore group of talent that plays with grit and must not be underestimated in their ability to be competitive in this spot situation.

 With a top tier QB Stafford at the helm of the offense, and the Rams ability to run the ball consistently behind an array of backs, Im betting they will give the Cowboys all they can handle . 

McVay is 27-14 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 18-9 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 24-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of LA RAMS.

Rams are 5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC sides in away games. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-32 L/10 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

It does not matter who starts at QB Daniel Jones or Taylor as their attack will center around star RB  Saquon Barkley who is now healthy and  back in the starting lineup. My power rankings suggest the Giants will have success here this week moving the ball, against a NYJ side that is off a bye week. Rest seems to do some teams well, but this Jets franchise looks to be an outliner as they are  1-10 SU including seven straight losses since 2015.  Yes, I know the Jets have played well of late, but it must be noted  that they are 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread .

NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. 

Play on the NYG to cover

New Orleans is a sub par  3-4  despite the fact they have out-yarded five of its seven opponents this season. . They’' re  opponents the Colts are also  3-4 Colts entering this tilt . 

MY power rankings, however,  suggest the linesmkaers have the wrong team favored .  It must be noted that the Colts are 1-8 ATS L/9 as favs.  After playing lights out football against Cleveland last week and still managing to lose Im betting the Colts are vulnerable vs a side like the Saints that have proved to be resilient off a loss , (which they suffered last time out,) cashing 6 of their L/7 after a SU fav defeat. 

Allen is 3-12 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 22-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-24 L/40 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NO Saints to cover

The Fins are expected to be without their entire left side of the offensive line in  this weeks tilt vs the New England Pats. Last week the Dolphins suffered on offense scoring just one TD , because the starting center was out as well as the left tackle , and things could get hairy again this week vs a fairly staunch Pats D. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills last time out, the Pats now have some confidence and momentum and are viable underdogs here today. 

Belichick is 29-18 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS L/35 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on New England to cover 

Arizona is surprising some of the pundits this season as they are still in Bowl contention with a 4-3 record. and will be very motivated to play hard here today.  Meanwhile, Oregon State despite of a solid 6-1 record have had a few issues away from home , and  were out gained in both away games this season  and are just 2-5 ATS L/7 as PAC 12 road chalk . Beavers are also just  1-7-1 ATS L/9 as road favorites of fewer than seven points. Advantage Arizona .

CFB Road favorites (OREGON ST) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-55 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover

Oklahoma state just completed a trifecta of underdog winners, but now they are in a vulnerable situation after those hard fought affairs , as they look ahead to a Bedlam battle rivalry tilt  against Oklahoma next week. I know Cincinnati has not looked all that consistent this season, but the talent base is still there and they are more than capable of being competitive here today vs a side that is 1-9 ATS  off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog with Gundy as  the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.( Cowboys beat W.Virginia by a 38-24 count last time out. 

Satterfield is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached . 

CINCINNATI L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a ppg diff of - 0.4 . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 92-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 57-27 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover

Previous to their win last time out vs Navy by a 17-6 score the Air Force Cadets had scored 39,45, 49, 34  points respectively and in their opener this season jacked 42 points on the board.  This Flyboys side is explosive to say the least, and here today vs a Colorado State side allowing an average of 35.8 ppg and more than 40 points per game at home , Im projecting them to eclipse the 40 point plateau while Colorado State will fire back in desperation and do just enough damage to help us cash with an over wager vs  this very vulnerable number. 

AIR FORCE is 16-5 OVER  in road games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with he combined average of those games clicking in at 55.3 ppg. 

AIR FORCE is 33-18 OVER in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (COLORADO ST) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a double digit road win are 30-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 60.6 ppg.

CFB  Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AIR FORCE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game are 113-64 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 52 ppg  going on the score board . 

Play on the over

I know Arkansas State is no longer a Sunbelt power house, but the way UL Monroe is playing Im not sure they should be favs in this tilt.  The Warhawks have lost 5 straight games most of which were not pretty watch. On the flispide, Arkansas State is off two consecutive losses vs Coastal Carolina and Troy, but after facing those viable sides, playing this group will feel like a walk in the park.  Its also important to note that Arkansas State is 13-0 SUATS  L/13 vs ULM.LA MONROE is 3-12 ATS L/15 as a home favorite of 3 points or less and has failed to cover 13 of their L/14 overall as conference home chalk. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA MONROE) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 40-84 L/31 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

Tulane is a  top 25 ranked team but Rice must not be under estimated in this ability to competitive here this Saturday afternoon at home where they average 39.3 ppg in offensive production. 

RICE is 14-1 ATS L/15 in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game (  Crushed Tulsa 42-10 last time out, outgaining them by 222 yards)

RICE is 16-3 ATS )n home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.

RICE is 30-16 ATS L/46 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Bloomgren is 7-0 ATS  in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE.

CFB home team vs. the money line (RICE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-3 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rice to cover

The Bears are averaging 195.6 yards per game rushing, third-most in the Pac-12 and 19th nationally  and Im betting they try to grind away here in effort to slow this game down to keep the Trojans explosive attack of the field as much as possible -  which in turn will eat up alot of clock time.

CALIFORNIA is 14-3 UNDER  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att with a combined average of 51.4 ppg scored. Wilcox is 8-1 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of CALIFORNIA with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored. Wilcox in his L/53 games against conference opponents has seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (USC) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.7 ppg scored. 

The Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers as in-state Sun Belt action this Thursday night.  Georgia State enters this game with a  6-1 record , including 3-1 in Sun Belt play, and enter this tilt on a two-game win streak. Note:GEORGIA ST is 10-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons and are-9-1 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

Georgia Southern at 5-2  is fine team playing at home but Georgia State according to my power rankings is one of the most under rated teams in the nation and deserve respect .Georgia State has emerged victorious in the last three meetings  between these teams and Im once again history repeats itself in this spot play. 

Play on Georgia State to cover

Jacksonville State according to my own projections should be closer to 10 point road chalk here, so getting them at this number makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Jacksonville State's powerful run game and defensive stopping units have a huge edge over a FIU team that is struggling to score  behind a freshman QB. It must be noted that the Gamecocks rank 50 th in the nation in defensive HAVOC , so FIUs pedestrian offensive line and freshman QB should have their hands full tonight.   Despite of being an efficient defensive group the Panthers  just do not matchup well vs  Jacksonville  States grinding productive ground attack.  Remember this is a FIU squad that is 1-4 in conference play with their only victory coming in OT vs winless Sam Houston State. 

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-7 ATS L/7  as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points . 

Play on Jacksonville State to cover