Im going to back the GOAT in this  Super Bowl  matchup,  In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his only  defeats coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.  In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG. Also Vic Fangio-coached defenses have previously faced Patrick Mahomes eight times. They are 0-8 SU,vs the Chiefs..

Kansas City 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games against elite rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

  Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season like the Eagles are also 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS  in the last 13 Super Bowls!

Play on the Chiefs to cover

Im betting this is going to be Super Bowl that starts slowly from a offensive perspective and predict a first quarter that will be tightly played .This will see a much lower scorin game than the linesmkaers might expect. 

 Kansas City is on a 13-1-1 Under  against top tier rushing attacks averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

Chiefs HC  Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under run vs. strong offenses scoring 27 PPG or more per game. 

Philadelphia is 21-12-1 Under the total in its last 34 playoff games.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. are 57-28 UNDER since 2015 with the average combined score clicking in at 42.8 ppg,

Key here is the QB matchup and the superior D of the Chiefs. 

In post season games , Mahomes is 7-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by an average  5.9 PPG. At home in cold weather events like this one ,In matchups in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 23-2 SU in his career and has won 20 straight tilts. On the flipside, Buffalos  QB Josh Allen is 0-3 SU and ATS vs. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and after last weeks underdog win it must be noted that Allen has never won consecutive games SU if both games saw his tream listed as an underdog which spans 15  times  as a pup in consecutive games. Allan Im betting struggles against the very physical Chiefs D in this away tilt. 

Play on the Chiefs to cover

 The Commanders have had a nice run and upset of the Lions last week, but they will be playing their fourth consecutive road  game and will be in a emotional letdown state after their huge victory making them very vulnerable .Road teams like Washington  that avoid turnovers (1.0  or less  per game) have not been good bets  in post season play recently , recording a  4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS record  since 2004. NFL Home sides allowing 5.5 or less yards per pass attempt have been top tier  bets in the playoffs, going 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS for. a 60% conversion rate dating back 23 years. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni  is 21-2 SU and 16-6 ATS  as a single-digit home favorite since 2021.  Also rookie QBS like Commanders  Daniels in the playoffs   are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in Conference Championship games.

Play on the Eagles to cover

 When these teams went head to head this season is result in a 17-14 final score favoring the Buckeyes  in Columbus . Notre Dame looked every bit as good as the home side with the totals yards coming in at 356-351 for Ohio State. Im not sold on the Buckeyes being this much better than the Irish, and after watching them escape their play off games with home run type plays that turned the tides of their tilts , it left me looking a their overall work as average at best. What Im saying here is that Im betting this is just to many points to lay with the Buckeyes and for the hard working and positive team chemistry of Freemans side to be the difference maker today. Note: Ohios States QB Will Howard looked vulnerable  three physically dominating  defenses he faced this year in Michigan, Texas  and Penn State. s key trend: Notre Dame is 14-0-1 ATS in its last 15 games revenging a loss. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover

The public really seems to like the over here as the overall  market according to the amount of bets made  shows a majority of betters on this being a higher scoring affair, but in contrarian fashion I will go against the public as I project a lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the offering. In the L/12 national championship games the public has yet to cash with their assumptions going 0-11-1. Also despite of the public being on the over, the total has gone down from the opener of 46.5 to 45.5 which means smart money and not the public is moving this line.

Play under

Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against todays play off opposition the  Bills. Its now very interesting to note that when Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is a money making  17-3 ATS for his backers in his career. In the 6 games  he  has opened as a pup and ended up closing as chalk , he is a perfect  6-0 SU and ATS , covering the spread by an average of just a little over   9 points per game. Jackson is also  20-5 SU in his career in  night games.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.

NFL Road teams like Baltimore - excellent offensive team (370 YPG or more ) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS since the 2015 season .

Play on Baltimore to cover

I know the Eagles are red hot and have won 3 straight SU  and against the  spread entering this tilt, while allowing just 13 points or less in those tilts. But it must be noted that  dating back to the 2005 season eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight have lost 6 of 8 SU   and  are just 1-7-1 ATS in their post season games.  Also Rams QB Stafford is  3-0 SU as an underdog this season in December, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups and must not be under estimated in his ability to lead his team to a a cover here and possibly a SU upset. Hes won 5 times SU as a underdog this season. Throw in the fact the  Super Bowl-winning QBs sine the 2003 campaign  are 62-25-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs and you have a situation that in my opinion favors the underdog. With the Rams HC MacVay a king on  short rest, as is evident by  have cashed 7 of his L/8 opportunities. With Stafford under center, McVay is  also a bankroll expanding 8-2 ATS with short prep for his backers.

LA Rams in away or neutral games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or moreyards/play are 7-0 ATS L/7 opportunities. Sean McVay in away or neutral games revenging a same season loss against opponent is 8-1 ATS .

Play on the Rams to cover

When the Lions are on extended rest with HC  Dan Campbell, they are 12-4-1 SU and 13-4 ATS and when they are favorites on extended rest, they are  a bankroll expanding  11-2 SU/ATS. So Im betting the rust helps the Lions It must also be noted that Detroits QB when playing in dome games  – 44-21-1 ATS (34-13-1 ATS with Lions) and this season has lefted a scorched earth for his opponents recording  30 TD, 12 INT, 71.6% comp pct, 8.5 Y/A and his Career owns a 118 TD, 42 INT, 68.4% comp pct, 7.7 Y/A mark. Note: Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when going against  sides like Washington scoring 24 PPG on average  or more on the season. 

Also I know rookie Jayden Daniels has looked good during his first NFL campaign , but here in this unfriendly dome environment the pressure Im betting will get to him and his over achieving side kicks. Yes, the Lions struggled a bit down the stretch with their D, but  e struggled down they still  ranked second in third-down conversion rate against,  ranking second on fourth down, and seventh in red-zone TD% against. they should not be disrespected. 

Play on the Lions 

The Chiefs came out on top 27-19 when the teams met at this venue in Week 16 and Im betting the Texans stay within the margin here for a cover. KC has had issues covering all season long, and with Patrick Mahomes and many of the Chiefs' best players entering the matchup on a two-week break rust could easily end up being an issue.

Visiting Sides in the Divisional round as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have have covered at a 61% clip.   Also Home teams scoring an average of  less than 27 points are generally substandard bets cashing just 17% of the time  in the divisional round. Kansas City's regular season offensive output rings in at 22.6 ppg and against a strong Texas D, will Im betting have issues eclipsing their reg season output in this contest, making the Texans a viable wagering option getting points. Note: KC covered just 3 of their 8 home games this season, and from a league wide perspective, Texans  DeMeco Ryans in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities.

NFLHome favorites like KC- after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are just 3-21 ATS since 2015. Also NFL Road underdogs or pick like the Texans - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after a loss by 28 or more points are just 3-22 ATS dating back to the 1983 campaign.

Play on Texans to cover

Right off the bat Ill say that Im betting on positive regression from Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who is off a ugly performance vs the Lions where he went 18-of-41  for just 166 yards .Prior to that down effort , Darnold had an 18/2 TD/INT ratio over his previous seven games,  and is more than capable of getting back into a groove tonight in Glendale. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Rams top gun QB Stafford owned a 71% completion rate with a 17/4 TD/INT this season and  less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket . His ability for  quick accurate  releases from this big time slinger will negate the Vikings blitz heavy pass rush. Both teams have the offensive weapons to make this a back and forth event that easily eclipses this total. Note: in the earlier meeting this season between these sides that ended a 30-20 final score, Stafford recorded four touchdown passes and a 73.53% completion rate .Minnesota games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER L/13 and have seen a combined average score of 50.6 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play over

  This No.3 vs No.6 NFL  matchup has seen some unexpected results  with away  teams  winning 14 of the L/22 matchups  SU while covering at a 17-5 ATS clip for a 77% conversion rate for their betting backers.·  Underdogs are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 NFC Wild Card games. Home sides in the Wildcard on Sundays like the Bucs are 18-21 SU and 13-25-1 ATS.Sunday NFC road teams have been a viable investment option recording a  18-6-1 ATS  mark in the last 25.  With that said, I like QB Jay Daniels and comopany to make this game a upset possibility and more importantly to get us the cover. 

Play on Washington to cover

Packers and Eagles faced off in Week 1in Brazil, with the Eagles winning by a  34-29 count.Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has gone against HC Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and  he looked explosive in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers. Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts respectively in the those  three tilts and another big output Im betting goes down today which will directly effect this score to go over the offered total.  Im also betting the QB Love will help his team put enough scores on the board to get us to the promised land. Note:Green Bay games against NFC East division opponents have seen a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.Green Bay games revenging a loss against opponent havw seen a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.Green Bay games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better are 6-0 OVER ) in the second half of the season have seen a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. Philadelphia games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 8-1 OVER L/9 with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Bills D struggled against play off teams this season and they  were  just 2-3 against teams that have reached the post season,  allowing 108 more yards per game against playoff teams vs. non-playoff sides. Buffalo’s defense also allowed 33 points a contest and is their Achilles heal entering this play off game vs the Broncos. Im betting Denvers ability to slow super star QB Josh Allan becomes the key to them covering today. Home teams like the Bills  in  NFL playoffs with a line -7 to -9.5 are 12-25-1 ATS since 2011.

Broncos to cover

I know the Steelers looked pretty bad towards the end of this season, but they still must not be underestimated in one game take all scenario as DD dogs with HC Mike Tomlin at the helm. It must be noted that Steelers QB Russel Wilson  9-1 ATS as a underdog dog of more than six points in his career. and enters this tilt as a live dog on my humble opinion. Meanwhile, Baltimores QB Lamar Jackson in  his career  postseason games  has lost and failed to cover 4 of 6 tries ),  and has lost SU 4 of 6 in this series including a  1-4-1 ATS career mark. When Jackson is favored by  3 or more  points in his career, he is a sub .500  29-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs. Jackson has also been heralded as a top tier QB in night games winning 20 of 25 attempts but its important to point out that he 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs. 

From a historical perspective  the Ravens have had problems holding a lead vs the Steelers. Since 2020, the Ravens are 2-7 SU against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game.So with a DD number to back we have an option with the back door cover as a high possibility out come. 

This season, the Ravens ended with 132 penalties as a team, T-2nd most in the NFL and in a post season game that lack of discipline could be a game changer. 

The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS since 2015 in this series. 

Take the points with the Steelers 

It has not been a great year forTexans  sophomore QB Stroud and company. but it must be noted that they came in as Wild card dogs last seasons as well closing as a 2-pt home pups vs. the Browns and still found a way to win by a  45-14 count despite of being underestimated. Big games like this are usually decided by defenses, and the better D in this game in my humble opinion is the Texans. Hey we also cant forget how sub par the Chargers looked in the 2nd half of the season.NFL playoff home dogs are 24-10-1 ATS in their first postseason game.C.J. Stroud is 9-6 ATS as an underdog in his career. Texans get my support to cover. Also Road teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons like the Chargers  versus  a repeat playoff team from the prior season are  9-30 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2007 in wild card games.  From a league wide trends chart comes this one- NFL Road teams like the chargers - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 8+ games are 4-24 ATS since 1983.

Play on Houston to cover

 These teams from a talent perspective are fairly evenly matched but this game is being played in the State of Texas which is of obvious importance when it comes to crowd presence. The Longhorns are not often dogs of late and the last two times they were listed as underdogs they covered both times vs Alabama. Key here is Ohio States QB Will Howard who did not look cohesive  against the two strong defenses he faced this season in Michigan and Penn State. Texas physicality up front  on the defensive line is going to give Howard problems. 

TEXAS is on a 13-2 ATS run against top tier  shutdown defenses allowing 5.9 yards per pass attempt or less.

Ohio State is just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS versus the SEC in bowl games since 1993 and TEXAS has won three straight bowl games outright versus Big Ten opposition. 

Play on Texas to cover

Notre Dames offense stuttered vs Georgia despite of getting the victory and had 244 total yards and just 90 passing yards. and now  with star RB Love playing at less than 100% problems are brewing .  QB  Leonard  will not have play action on his side, and even if he did his downfield cogs are an inconsistent issue anyway. It must be noted that entering this season the Notre Dame  offensive line was a problem point and against this big physically imposing Penn State D, moving the chains once again looks like it will be a problem. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Penn State offense will also have tough sledding here vs Notre Dames 5th ranked D.  Penn State games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game have gone 5-0 since 2023 with the combined average ppg clicking in at 32.6 ppg. Penn State generated just 18.4 ppg.

These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play and Im betting both sides will not move the chains with impunity and instead a ground and pound type of affair will key this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

Play on the under

The Vikings are off a hard fought game vs the Packers last week, and now will be in a emotional letdown situation at a bad time as they take on a HC Dan Campbell led Lions that are 9-0 SU as favorites in night games, winning by an average ppg diff of  9.2 PPG. Jared Goff has owned the  Vikings as QB of Detroit from a betting perspective , as is evident by a  7-0 ATS conversion rate , the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota dating back 20 seasons. NFL Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 - off a home win against a division rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better ) are 6-25 SU since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -6.9 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line.

Play on the Lions to cover

Yes, the Chiefs are resting key players this week, but this is a deep  Super Bowl squad with a top tier  HC with Andy Ried on the sidelines. It must be noted that since 2007, Andy Reid has closed as a double-digit underdog five times, and is a  perfect 5-0 ATS. Broncos enter this tilt with  extended rest after playing their last game on extended rest and this situation from a ATS perspective for these teams have only covered 16 of 43 tilts. 

Over the L/35 sesons a team with a win percentage of 70% or better as  underdog of 7.5 or more points in their 16th game or later of the regular season – and are dogs of more than 9 pts are a perfect  4-0 ATS. 

food for thought: Kansas City on the money line in games played on a grass field are 12-0 SU L/12 opportunities.

 Dating back to 2012, the Jets are  0-20 SU and 1-19 ATS in the game after facing the Bills which was the case last week. Since 2021 campaign, the Fins are  25-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season. Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets five times in his career and he is 5-0 SU. ( The Fins  may start QB Tyler Huntley to play vs. the Jets because of Tua Tagovailoa's hip injury) The Jets are 3-14 SU L/17 vs Miami. 

Analysis to follow -thank you for your patience 

This is HC Dan Quinn 's regular-season finale at the Cowboys and he says he won't be resting any player . Washington wont  take the Cowboys lightly as they were beaten by them earlier this season. I know many pundits believe that  Dallas after getting hammered by the Eagles last time out, will just go through the motions, but I highly doubt it as their egos are bruised and pros dont like to be humiliated, so look for them to fight hard here in what could be a back and forth game that handily eclipses the total.  

The L/3 most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this offered total with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Dallas is  16-1  Over in the last 17 home rematch games. Dallas is  12-3 to the OVER  L15 divisional home games.  Washington is 6-2 OVER  L8 vs .500  or  opposition.

Play over

NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off a win over AFC opp since 2016. Now in a huge letdown situation after their upset of Washington Im betting on major regression offensively. from the Giants, that will directly effect the combined score of this game to being a lower scoring sleep fest. With the Eagles resting key offensive stars Im betting we see a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the offered number.NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is  18-8 Under  as a single-digit underdog. NY Giants games in games where the line is +3 to -3  have gone under 8 straight times with a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored.

NFL  team like NYG against the total - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 5-29 UNDER since 1983.

Play under

Atlanta Im betting will have their  3rd straight strong offensive  output with new QB Michael Penix Jr under center . In his first two starts the Falcons have averaged 29 points per game and my projections estimate another huge output vs the worst D in the NFL. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Bryce Young needs to make some kind of impact before the season ends and Im betting he will be primed to perform behind a offense that is improving and becoming more viable. Everything points to a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NFC SOUTH division tilts like this  have cashed to the over 9 of the L/10 times with a combined  average of 55.9 combined ppg going on the board. Carolina has gone 12-4 OVER this season and  Atlanta  have gone 13-4-1 to the OVER  as division home chalk  to 2016 , including 7-1 OVER  as home favs of -3 plus points

Play over.

The Steelers had 520 total  yards and 7.9 yards per play in the first meeting.  while the Bengals complied  375 yards and 6.6 yards per play in a 43-38 slugfest. I know the weather conditions wont be ideal here this week, (cold but dry as NO precipitation is expected), but the Bengals can light up the scoreboard  in any environmental condition and the Steelers Im betting can score in bunches  against a sub average Bengals D.

Note: Steelers expected QB Russell Wilson has gone over in 7 straight January games. 

Bengals are 8-0 OVER  L8 vs  .600 or better  opposition and  3-0 OVER on Saturday .

 Home underdogs like the Steelers playing on Saturdays are  9-1-1 OVER  L/9 seasons with a Total  of 42  to 50  point range. 

Play over

Both these teams are missing players on both sides of the ball,  but both still run aggressive offense schemes,  and both have lackluster defensive talent. With that said, Im betting on whatever personal is on the field alot of points will go on the board in what will highly likely be an  offensive slugfest. It must be noted that despite of missing their top QB North Texas enters this game  10th in yards per play and will once again attack with furor. The Mean Green have no choice but to score in bunches as their defense is atrocious. The same holds true with Texas State as in their L/3 games of the season averaged 49 ppg and on defense allowed 31 points per game. 

North Texas games in non-conference games are 11-2 OVER L/13 overall with a combined average of 75.7 ppg scored.

The game between North Texas and Texas State is set for clear skies with temperatures around 60°F. Light east-southeast winds at 4.5 mph will have minimal impact on play. Expect a fast-paced game with no precipitation or humidity concerns, ideal conditions for both passing and scoring opportunities.

Play over

LATE STEAM 

Notre Dames offense has looked stagnant at times this year, and very explosive other times, but is for certain their opponents today Georgia has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 129.3 yards per game vs opposing rush offenses season ranking eighth in opponent EPA per rush and 24th in defensive success rate against the run, which rings alarm bells for a Irish offense that will be out to establish the run( ND ran the ball more than 55% of the time this season). On the flip-side, the Notre Dame's defense ranked top-five nationally in points allowed per game (13.8) and yards allowed per play (4.5) . So Im betting backup Gunner Stockton despite of his good qualities at quarterback, is an average at best passer and  will have issues  with one of the nation's best pass defenses and as the games progresses like expect the Dawgs to run the ball alot more .With that said Im betting on a defense-dominant, ground-and-pound kind of tilt that results in a lower scoring affair. 

Play on the under

The Ducks,  beat the Buckeyes by one point earlier this season, but Ohio state shot themselves in the foot and turned the ball over twice  in that game and still almost stole the game in a hostile road environment . It must be noted that this Ohio State program has won 13 of the L/20 SU vs undefeated sides and have the pedigree to win out here again today. Note: Bowl sides on extended rest  like Oregon are 0-6 SU against  unrested bowl teams like Ohio State ( just dominated Tennessee last week)  Also sides out looking for  revenge in bowl game featuring same conference rivals are 6-0 ATS dating back 34 seasons. Also in the first game Ohio States D, did not look good, and have been accused of just going through the motions at time but this is. a very talented unit top to bottom- and enter  this game as the best unit in the country in EPA per play allowed. Today Oregons one key weakness their Defense will be the difference maker especially their 60th ranked in rush success rate against, which Im betting gets run over. in a big way That one bad  game against Michigan really has had the public down on Ohio State, but now with a huge chip on their shoulders look for this talent heavy group to get the job done here at under a FG or less. 

CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 27-63 since the 2015 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Ohio State to cover

Boise State enters this game against Penn State ranked  in at No 9 in the poll and N.4 in the bracket,  and the  Nittany Lions are the 6th seed  and  are DD favorites. Despite of having respect for Franklin and company Im betting this line is based more on public and program perceptions than viable talent on the ground. It must be noted that HC . Franklin is 3-19 SU vs.  Top 10 sides in his career. He beats the lower level teams like a drum but when he goes up against the big boys he fumbles almost every time and no the vs SMU was not a big boy victroy. I know the Mountain West is not the Big 10, but when Boise State ventured out of its conference, against a big time team, they looked very good, The Broncos in their close 37-34 count loss  to the Ducks of  Oregon as 17.5-point dogs easily covering the spread solidified for me their prowess..It must also be noted that Mountain West programs of 8 points or more dogs in the post season are 10-2 ATS L/10 and Boise itself is 5-1 SUATS this season vs fellow Bowlers and won the stats battles in 5 of those tilts. Im betting on Heisman runner-up  RB Ashton Jeanty to once again turn heads and be the difference maker today in what Im betting will be a lot closer game than the linesmakers and much of the public expect. ( The Broncos recorded  6.7 yards per carry and Jeanty had 25 carries for 192 yards in the game against Oregon.) Rinse and repeat vs Penn State on todays agenda behind some equally slick moves from HC Spencer Danielson)

Boise State vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. are 6-0 ATS datimng back to last season.Boise State versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play are 5-0 ATS dating back to last season.

Play on Boise State to cover

Baylor is essentially fully intact entering this Bowl game with very few portal transfers which tells a story of a cohesive happy team, that are headed in the same direction and on the same page. Meanwhile, LSU top gun QB Garrett Nussmeier wont have many top tier targets today as his top offensive weapons have opted out or in the transfer portal and he will also be playing behind a patchwork offensive line with only one starter C DJ Chester playing. Life could easily get miserable for Nussmeier  here today vs Baylor.  Also as the season drew to a close the Bears looked amazing , honestly they looked capable of some big things going forward as they finished on a  6-0 SUATS and superior stats run and get my support here today.

Baylor to cover

I know Louisville QB Tyler Shough won’t play but he will be backed by a capable QB senior Harrison Bailey who completed 100% of his 8 passes this season.Bailey also will have a ton of play action on his side with  1,000-yard rusher  Isaac Brown, ( 1,074 yards on  147 carries) . I expect the Louisville     big-play offense that ranks  third in the nation in yards per play at 6.88  will not skip a beat vs a inconsistent Washington D that played much worse away from home.  On the flipside QB  Demond Williams Jr. will get the call at QB for the Huskies ( completed 77% of his passes and had a 4/0 TD/INT Ratio. ) and he is expected to be backed by Jonah Coleman who record 1,000 plus yards. Im beting both offenses with a eye on the future will open up their playbooks here, and give us alot more offensive action the totals line indicates. Note:Game time weather for Louisville vs. Washington looks favorable. Expect a warm day at 65°F with minimal cloud cover and no precipitation. Light winds from the west-southwest may have a minor influence on passing and kicking but shouldn't disrupt offensive play enough to make a difference. Overall, ideal conditions for a higher scoring matchup!

Play over

The L/3 meetings in this series  have gone over the Total with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. With nice weather expected in Santa Clara tonight Im expecting for the conditions to favor an over wager cashing again. We know what Motown can do offensively and I still believe in the 49ers ability to get going especially with the ego bashing they have taken over the last half of this season. This is a great opportunity to compete and to that the Niners need to put points on the board. 

Detroit games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 5-0 OVER L/5 for a combined average of 69.6 ppg scored.Detroit games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER since 2023 with. combined average of 57.9 ppg scored.San Francisco games off an upset loss as a favorite.which is the case here have seen 6 straight games go over with a combined average of 50.3 ppg scored.

Play over

This Totals  line keeps moving down, but rightly so. as both teams  are known for their defensive prowess, plus  key offensive weapons will not play today, as Missouris star WR Luther Burden is out, and Iowas future NFL RB Kaleb Johnson opting out for the draft. Also Iowa has quarterbacks Cade McNamara and Marco Lainez in the transfer portal, With  that said, Im betting on a grinding  affair, that stays on the low side of the Total. The under is  4-0 in the four non-conference games that Missouri has played. 

Iowa last 6 games as an underdog have seen a combined score of 27.6 ppg scored.Iowa games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points have seen a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored dating back to 2023 season spanning a 9 game sample size,

Play under

Falcons since week 13 have been very defensively stable, when it comes to EPA per play allowed recording a  (-0.144) mark.  The Falcons  are also  fifth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.238) during this span , and second in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.103).  There is above average  defensive talent throughout this line, and now with Penix Jr behind center the Falcons look like the real deal from a balanced perspective. Meanwhile, Washington is experiencing offensive regression and since week 10 the /commanders rank 16th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.017).  I know the NFL world still looks admirably at QB Daniels and he ha s played well overall with some big plays that have turned heads, but the recent stability of the Falcons secondary suggest he will look ordinary here. On the flipside,  QB Penix and company should have success with the run game and play action will be highlighted and benefit the visitors offense  vs a  sub par commanders rush D  ranking just  25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.029).  Note: Washington is ranked 24th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.106). 

Washington vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game are 0-6 ATS L/6.

NFL team like Washington - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 18-48 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Falcons to cover

Rain expected tonight, but its warm, and Im betting we still see points go on the board. According to my projections this number should be closer to 48. Soggy conditions will make for a ugly game is usually public consensus , but the defenses will also struggle here in this  environment. 

The Packers  enter this road game against Minnesota having scored 30-plus points in their last five games and Im betting they do damage again behind QB Jordan Love and company. On the flipside, we have Minnesotas red hot QB Darnold  who has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last six games with the Vikings scoring 30 plus in their L/4 overall. Needless to say these teams are really in a offensive groove and here in the warm environmentally controlled confines of Minnesotas home dome, it would not be unreasonable to believe that there could at some point  be enough offensive fireworks to propel this combined score over the offered total. The L/4 meetings between these teams here have seen a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. Note: Packers are off a big home win last time out 34-0 on 
MNF- In the following game , NFL away sides  off a home shutout  victory   have gone 10-1 OVER  last 7 seasons. 

Green Bay has ogne over 4 straight times in game 16 of the season, while Minnesota has gone over 5 straight in game 16 of the season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1983 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Dallas has looked a little better of late after a disastrous overall campaign that has exposed Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys as a sub par overall side. On the road is where their below average overall chemistry and inconsistencies  is the most  obvious as they are 0-7 ATS on the road   when facing  opponents  like the Eagles who outscore their opposition by 6+ points per game, with an average ppg diff clicking in at  these matchups, -13.3 ppg,  With the host 10-1 ATS L/11 in this series we will take the Eagles even without Jalen Hurts in the lineup and Pickett starting. 

Play on the Eagles to cover

The Rams are a solid team, but this Cards side matches up well against them. Teams like the Cards that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between side in the rematch  are 82-26 SU and 67-41 ATS  later in the season for a 62% conversion rate. In NFL December/January regular season tilts dating back 14 seasons  on winning streaks of at least three games but not a proficient  offensive unit  that scores 22 or less points have lost 32 of 53 SU and just  16-37 ATS . Hey I know the Cards dont have alot ot play for but pride is still a thing with ego based millionaires and Im expecting them to stand tall here vs a side that despite of wanting revenge, for an earlier loss this season,  Note: Home teams vs. the money line - revenging a blowout loss against opponent by 21 points or more, with a winning record in the second half of the season have lost 17 of the L/23 overall SU since the 2015 camping. Arizona  is 29-18 ATS as an underdog since 2021. 

Play on the Cards to cover

BYU Top 20 defense has the edge here going against an explosive  Sanders-led passing attack, which ranks  ranks  4th in the nation. (averaging 327.2 YPG). There are alot of future NFLers here for the Buffs, but thats not a prerequisite for winning Bowl games. It must be noted that the Cougars  held three sides to season-low yardage, including in two of the last four trips to the gird-ion. Offenses are fun to watch but defneses are  not fun to face head on , and Im betting the Buffalos get a ugly hand-full of gladiator dirt that Im betting blind their proverbial progress throughout this. game.  Also BYU has the guns to get some scores here today in what could easily be a outright victory. Kalani Sitake is 16-7 ATS as a pup  vs opposition  with a win % of better than .666 .  Note: Colorado owns a  29th ranked  in EPA per play (0.058) and BYU is 34th (0.049).  Buffs averaged 34.5 points per game this year while the Mormons scored 30.8 ppg. CFB Neutral field favorites - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 7-28 ATS since 2015.

The line has moved up but rightfully so, as plenty of points should go on the board here today as strong QB play must be expected by Burrows and Nix. We know Burrows and company cant be stopped by any  NFL teams, and with  Cincinnati ranked  20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.086) the Broncos and Nix should also do damage with regularity which makes for an over wager being an advantageous investment option. The Over is 8-3-1 in the 12 games Denver has played against teams with losing records with HC Payton. 

 Games on Saturdays  in the NFL have gone a  9-0 OVER 100%  in the last 3 years when ( the home team is penciled in as chalk like the Bengals are here today and the  line is  between 40 to 50 points.

Play over

Both these teams are misses pieces but Im betting Colorado State duel threat QB  Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will do damage here today  against this RedHawks secondary. that despite being good against the pass this season,  will be without key  defender  Strader and couple other starting defensive backs wont play either.  On the flipside, as the Rams were just 107th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.057) this season, and with that said,  Miami O Im betting reciprocates with some offensive  damage of their own in game with a total that is very beatable.

CFB teams like Colorado State/ Miami O where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG differential.) are 36-2 OVER since 2020 with a combined average of 51,8 ppg scored.

Play over

Here we go like I say plug your nose and turn away. Because its my ugly betty side call of the week. Im going with New England here as home dogs today against a Chargers side  traveling from coast to coast to play in a frosty environment they are not accustomed to. Also the Chargers are off a big offensive output last time out vs Denver which was a  34-27 win and now Im betting on immediate regression and letdown scenario to rare its ugly head  against New England. The Chargers after a game where they scored 34 or more points are just 0-5-1 ATS . Meanwhile, the Pats are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series, and are off playing a tough defensive game against the explosive Bills holding them to 24 points and getting the cover as DD dogs. 

Play on the Pats to cover 

Texas A&M is getting to much respect here in bowl game vs USC. The Aggies are a undisciplined side, that finished No. 122 in Penalties Per Game this season and Im betting that will be their demise today from a ATS standpoint. The Aggies are  3-6 against the spread as the favorite this season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are 1-4 in their last five games as chalk.Meanwhile, the  USC Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.The Texas A&M Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten road games.

Key Trend:6-6 bowl teams like the Trojans coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or less points per game . ( On the season, USC’s defense ranks 37th nationally, giving up 23.5 points per game)

Play on USC to cover

 Georgia Tech averaged 29.1 points per game this season on offense while Vanderbilt averaged 26.8 points per game.  The Techsters are 14th in the nation in EPA per play (0.084) while the Commodores  are 24th (0.063).  On the defensive side of the ball Georgia Tech is ranked  51st in EPA per play allowed (-0.022) and Vanderbilt is ranked  67th (-0.001). The offenses are obviously the strong points for both sides, and despite of absences from both sides, the offenses Im betting will shine , despite of the chance of their being some light drizzle or rain. 

The Over is 3-1 in the 4 games Georgia Tech has played against SEC opponents with  HC Key at the helm , and  4-0 OVER  in the four games the team has played against defenses that allow at least 8 or more  passing yards per attempt. Georgia Tech games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or more are 6-0 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 64.7 ppg scored. .Meanwhile, The Over is 11-1 UNDER  in the 12 non-conference games the Commodores have played under Lea.Vanderbilt games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 9-1 OVER L/10 with a combined average of 58.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams  like Georgia Tech where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games are 139-79 OVER since 1992 for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.1 ppg.

Play over

Transfer portal and NFL draft readiness mayhem has hit the Sooners. but this  might be a good thing for the Sooners as new blood might get things revving in the right direction faster. I also like the fact that  freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr already has some experience in tough situations and that Navy has serious problems against opposing run games which Im betting the Sooners implement with power. This season despite of all  the crap slung at the Sooners for poor play one thing they did better than most was zone /read and counter behind a top-five defense in Rushing Success Rate. I know alot of sharps love Navy, but Im going rogue here, as Oklahoma with more than 3 weeks to prepare for this tilt and big chips on their shoulders should be more than ready to grab the cash today. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover

The Red Wolves are here in. a Bowl game despite of owning the worst D in the Sun Belt for yards allowed.Red Wolves’ defense, which allowed 32.3 points per game and 460.7 yards per game  ranked sixth-to-worst in FBS. However their  offense is balanced and can strike quickly behind QB Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 2,562 yards and 14 touchdowns this season abd RB Zak Wallace, who’s been a scoring machine with 622 rushing yards and 10 TDs.Note: Raynor threw for six touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games entering the tilt. I know Bowling Green has a strong D, allowing just over 20 ppg, but Red Wolves according to my projections will eclipse that mark and get into the mid to 20s ( 24-27) and on the flips side give up more than 30 plus points here (***Bowling Green has  scored at least 31 points in three of its last five games) . Bottom line in a game to close to call on the spread, the total looks be a strong bankroll expanding investment opportunity.  - CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 96-48 OVER since 2020 with a combined average score of 58.2 ppg scored.

Play over

Cold weather game being played between two teams, that  have combined to score just 41.5 points per game this season. Both offenses are very inconsistent, making a case for a under wager a strong proposition. 

Seattle away or neutral games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-0 UNDER L/5 with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams like Chicago against the total - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half are 31-7 UNDER since 1983 with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Rutgers offense has had problems scoring all season long, and  like to drag things out by grinding it out in the trenches and eating up clock time. I just dont think they can eat enough clock up enough time to not to get beaten up on today by a team thats better than them on both sides of the ball. Rutgers defensive coordinator is now on his way to UMass and a team , and thats not a good omen for a team already allowing 5.9 ypp. Note:  Chris Klieman versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play is 12-2 ATS.  The Wildcats are 15th in EPA per play recording. a (0.082) mark, and Rutgers  are  43rd (0.034). The Wildcats  rank 35th in the nation in EPA per play allowed  at (-0.049), while Rutgers ranks 71st (0.006). Everything points to a conclusive Kansas state win even though there will be some players missing from a couple of offensive positions.   Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 38-11 ATS since 2011 for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover

Kansas City has owned  Pittsburgh in the two most recent meetings between these teams , outscoring the Steelers by a combined 47 points for a average ppg diff of 23.5 . The complete control final scores were  36–10 and then  42–21.  

Kansas City owns  teams completing 64% or more of their passing points  with the average margin ppg clicking in at 4.4 over a 19 game sample size. I know Pickens is expected to back for Pittsburgh today, but Im betting QB play will be stifled by a front  D and secondary that take their opposition completely out sync. With the Chiefs offense ready to generate some extra power as the play offs approach Im betting the Cheifs to cover. 

Kansas City in away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season are 5-0 ATS since 2023.

Play on KC to cover

This may seem like a high total, and it is,  but its melted up this way for a reason. HC Niumatalolo when coming over from Navy decided to change the offense up and not go with a triple option offense , and instead allowed new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann to implement a run and shoot attack . He did it well, and here against a sometimes lackluster South Florida D that allowed  5.8 YPP in AAC action , Im betting San Jose State will do some series damage. Note:San Jose State throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation (64%) air attack. Yes, I know star WR Nich Nash will not play for the Spartans today as he awaits to the NFL draft but this allows WR  Justin Lockhart  who is a college star on the rise to get alot of looks today. On the flipside, Im also betting on the Bulls behind  Archie or Brown to  also do a fair amount of damage  offensively as  the  Spartans had problems  stopping explosiveness in passing downs and  finished the season 121st in third-down defense. Im also betting on the Bulls ground game  to find alot of holes vs a San Jose State using inside zone as the  Spartans D finished  last in  the country in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the softest schedules in the nation. Get ready for some early New Yeats fireworks on paradise Island this Christmas eve. 

Play over

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring. Because of this I expect the combined score of this tilt not to eclipse the offered number. Note: The Under is 4-1 in the five games New Orleans has played with interim coach Darren Rizzi on the sidelines.  The Saints have not  scored more than  20 in four of those five games. LaFleur, has closed on the Under in 12 of 19 games   the Packers have played vs sides with winning percentages of 25% to 40%.

Play under/

Northern Illinois since upsetting Notre Dame earlier this season, have not done much and do not really deserve to be favorites by this margin today. It must be noted that Fresno State 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last five bowl games .Also the  dog  is 16-5 ATS in Bulldogs bowl games. The Huskies are  just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS last eight bowl games. Bottom line: Both starting QBs are not playing today and numerous players are moving through the transport portal. In the end this selection is based on the program from the better conference, and that has the superior overall talent. Fresno State in away or neutral games in non-conference games. are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Fresno State to cover

 UTSA’s defense was horrendous  this season and even if Coastal Carolinas QB Hudson does not play , Im still expecting them to put some points on the board as UTSA  allowed 5.7 yards per play this season, and more than  six yards per play in November. This team allowed 26 passing touchdowns allowed ranking them  123rd in the country.  On the flipside, UTSA’s offense went bonkers towards the tail end of the season, behind their pedigree QB McCown who  threw for 1,860 yards in his L/6  tilts to the gridiron while  rushing for 213 over his final three. He wont be slowed by this pedestrian Coastal Carolina D. Coastal Carolina games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 66.4 ppg scored. UTSA games in all games are 8-1 OVER with 65.7 ppg scored.

Play over

NFL Home underdogs are 35-48-3 ATS during this campaign.  .Meanhwle, away  favorites went 7-0 SU last week and have cashed  14-1 SU l/15 over the last three weeks. 

The Buccaneers have won each of their last 10 road games following a road win.The Cowboys have lost each of their last seven Sunday games against opponents on a winning streak.The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Cowboys' last six games at AT&T Stadium.

Note:Mayfield was held out of drills Wednesday due to a knee injury, but his return to all activity one day later  gives credence in his on field presence this Sunday night.  He gets to tee off on a  defense that  has given up the second-most combined touchdowns (21 passing, eight rushing) to opposing quarterbacks in 14 contests this season.

Tampa Bay to cover

  QB Josh Allen has started four games where he is favored chalk of more than  11 pts. He is 3-0 SU in those games, but 0-3 ATS dating back to the 2022 campaign. Allen is also  4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS in his last 4 games in this line situation.The Bills are also currently  on a 0-9 ATS run as double-digit favorite. Plug your nose hold your breath and dive into a game that could easily see the Bills looking ahead to the play offs and the no 1 priority of staying healthy.  Im also betting on some major regression as they  are the first team in NFL history to score 5 TDs and have zero TOs in five straight games. Favorites of more than  TD (-7.5 plus) are 33-45 ATS when their team is on a 3+ game turnover-free run. 

The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five December games as underdogs against AFC opponents.The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five December home games against AFC East opponents.

Play on the Patriots to cover

The 49ers are 6-1 ATS coming off SU loss as a home favorite. Meanwhile,  Miami 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss and taking on  non division  opposition. Both sides are looking less than spectacular, but from a talent perspective the Niners look like a viable bet in a ugly betty matchup. 

Miami as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 0-5 ATS L/5. Miami versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game are 0-6 ATS L/6 dating back to 2023.

NFL Road teams like the 49ers - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 24-5 ATS since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking. at +4.43.

Play on the 49ers to cover

The New York Jets have momentum coming into this game as they  are off  32-25 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out. In his career, Rodgers is 8-0 ATS against the Rams and is a viable enough veteran QB to get the job done again this week. 

 The Rams have lost four of their last six games as favorites against AFC East opponents.The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games before a Division game.The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Jets' last five Week 16 games. 

Play on the NY Jets to cover

This is an outdoor game in frigid windy Chicago in December. These teams took part in a 23-20 tilt in week 13 and Im betting on this possibly being an even lower scoring affair. Note:

The Motown crew are on a  0-7-1 UNDER run as out door road favorites of points  or more and another lower scoring affair is in the cards today. 

Play on the under

The Buckeyes are in a letdown situation after getting smashed by Michigan last time out. It must be noted that Ohio State is just  4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS after a SU  loss vs   the Wolverines. I know Ohio State can move the ball, but Tennessee own a formidable stopping gorup and a top-notch defensive line with just 3.28 yards per carry allowed in conference games and 21 sacks in eight games. Im betting the Vols D, is the difference maker , and us taking the points here a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion.  Note: the Vols are a bankroll expanding 8-1 SUATS vs. .750 or better non-conference opp dating back 8 seasons and  6-1 SU in the last seven bowl games and vs the Big 10, are  8-2 SU  in bowl tilts. 

Play on Tennessee to cover

When the Steelers are a  underdog of 4 pts or more they  are 8-0 ATS in franchise history vs the Ravens.  Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has also not faired well vs the Steel City Destroyers recording a   1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS  record vs. Mike Tomlin and  Steelers in his career. Rinse and repeat situation on board this Saturday. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-30 ATS 2015 season. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - with an incredible offense - averaging 6.0 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 9-36 ATS since 2020.

Steelers to cover

I know there are alot of trends that support Dabo and company, but what stands out to me is the way SMU moved the ball against them in the 2nd half last time out, and the way Georgia stepped all over Clemson earlier this season. Texas showed they are every bit as good as Georgia in a heart breaking loss to them late in the season, and with that said Im Im betting the Longhorns superior overall talent will prevail in a big way here today much like Georgia operated against Clemson in a DD beatdown. CFB Road underdogs of +315 or higher vs. the money line - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 1-29 since 2020 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -17.7. Note: Steve Sarkisian in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 is a perfect 6-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at +32.

Play on Texas to cover

Penn States D held opponents to season-low yardage five times this season, and here against an explosive SMU offense that is an important factor. Penn State’s defense is 8th in scoring defense allowing just 16.4 ppg  and 6th in yards allowed/game at 282.1.  Big Ten teams are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. ACC in bowl games and are  11-1 ITS this season, including 7-1 vs teams in Bowl tilts.  James Franklin after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game is 12-2 ATS L/14 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.9. SMU is  0-4 SUATS last four bowl games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today vs Penn State. 

Penn State to cover

Indiana according to my projections is being under rated here vs Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish in my humble opinion are also over rated especially on defense.The Fighting Irish from a historical perspective are  0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995,  are a baffling 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 or better sides  like the Hoosiers. Indianas  HC Cignetti 30-6 all time vs FBS sides and has the guns this season to stay close in this game and actually even pull off the upset. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS since 2020.

Play on Indiana to cover

Tulane will be playing with a backup QB and just lost to before a  horrendous performance  vs Army in the AAC championship game. Meanwhile, Florida is finally looking like a top tier SEC team. Alot has been made of the Tulane D, but as far Im concerned it over rated especially in the secondary and they have shown that lately. 

Florida has won five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.Tulane has lost each of its last three games in December.Florida has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Play on Florida 

This Ohio. program has done well in its last 10 bowl games going  8-2 ATS  and are 10-5 ATS, and 9-6 ITS vs. bowl teams last three seasons. and have allowed less than 300 yards in last six games overall going a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville States  HC   Rich Rodriguez is 2-9-1 ATS in bowl games. Biggest issue with this Jacksonville State side, is their defense as they have allowed 400 yard plus in 4 of their L/6 overall.Jacksonville State’s three best defensive players, as Zechariah Poyser (Miami), Reginald Hughes (Colorado), and Fred Perry (TBD) have all left the program so things could even get uglier today.  Sun Belt teams are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Cure Bowl appearances and with that said , Im fading the Gamecocks vs what my projections say is the superior side by a TD or more.  

Play on Ohio to cover

Bo Nix has looked great in his rookie campaign, but here on the road, Im betting against a strong Chargers D he struggles to see alot of positive traction.t Los Angeles beat  Denver on the road earlier in the season, and look to matchup well overall . Note: the Broncos are 4-8 SU as a road underdog under Payton while Los Angeles is 4-1 SU ATS as a home favorite under Harbaugh. Also Justin Herbert looking comfortable in the pocket of late and finally finding consistency with his recievers we have a viable /chargers side to back in this one. 

Thursday night road teams with a rookie QB like Nix are on the road, 8-20 SU since 2006.

Chargers QB Herbert has started two games on short rest this season recording a  2-0 SU/ATS mark  in those tilts.In his career, Herbert on short  short rest at home, has lead his offense to average  32.2 PPG.

NFL team like /Denver revenging a loss against opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). are just 6-27 ATS dating back to 2015.

NFL Underdogs like Denver vs. the money line - off a home win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 8+ games are 13-56 since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.4.

Chargers to cover

The Georgia Southern  Eagles enter this game with momentum having won three straight games , and  during the reg season have victories vs 4 Bowl teams  ( James Madison, Marshall, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina,) . The Eagles also were kind to their betting backers failing to cover only 3 times in 11 contests (8-3-1 ATS) .  They once again look like good bets vs a side ( Houston State) with a interim  HC and more than dozen players mostly on the defensive side of the ball out as they are  in the transfer portal as well as  their top RB  which helps a weak Eagles run D. Sam Houston ranks outside the top 100 in Pass and Rush Success Rate once again negating a sub par Georgia Southern D. Here against a  Eagles strong rush unit , the Bearkats also look vulnerable, as  they recorded one of the worst  Stuff Rates in the nation.The Bearkat secondary should also get lit up , as Georgia Southern had three wide receivers with at least 557 yards Note:. Sam Houston State finished the regular season 119th in yards per play on offense,  and just dont intimidate , their opposition even if their top gun is under center (Hunter Watson) and with a depleted D look like unviable underdogs.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover

James Madison starting QB Alonza Barnett III  who accounted for over 3000 yards of offense, and 33 TDs will miss this tilt.  The two backup QBs have  recorded  just two pass attempts in relief of him this season. JMU only had 5.34 YPP against conference foes and could struggle once again today moving the ball, even against a team like the Hilltoppers that struggled on D this season. Also the Hilltoppers have a lot of portal transfers and will be without Easton Messer WR. JMU has played a strong defense allowing just 4.73 ypg on D. With rain and windy conditions expected this game could end up being a grinding slow affair that stays on the low side of the totals offering. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in December games are 41-14 UNDER with a combined average of 45.6 ppg scored.

Play under 

Memphis will be primed to take down a power 5 team in this tilt vs West Virginia. The explosive Tigers offense (that ranked 20th in offensive plays with 871) and an average of 6 ypp will Im betting do damage here today. Meanwhile, West Virginia now with a interim coach may not be as not be as cohesive especially on D, as they have a  long list of transfer portal players on the move including key defender Josiah Trotter. It also must be noted that the Mountaineers gave up an average 40 plus points a game in their L/3 trips to the gridiron entering Bowl season.  Memphis gave up alot of points this season overal and in neutral or road games allowed more than 27 ppg. Im betting the Tigers do what they do best and score and the Mountaineers answer back with points of their own as the new interim HC Chad Scott  was the running back catch and offensive coordinator and should have that part of their game running on all cylinders.  Memphis away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.West Virginia games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 5-0 OVER L/5 with a combined average of 68 ppg scored while allowing their opposition more than 42 points per game.

Play on the over

These teams put 57 points on the board in the first meeting in Chicago  and now they go into a indoor game, which will also aid in what Im betting will be a higher scoring event. Im betting with nothing left to lose the Bears interim coaching staff put a game plan in pace that will focus on getting QB Caleb Williams confidence in a good place , before this season ends adn they will try to move the ball more aggressively. On the flipside, Im betting the Vikings strong offense, tees off here ( Vikings  EPA per play of 0.050 this season. Top-10 NFL mark)

 Minnesota games in December games are 8-1 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored.Minnesota games after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 9-0 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 55.9 ppg scored. The Over is 10-4-1 in the games Vikings have played as a home favorite under  HCO’Connell. Minnesota has gone over 5 of their L/6 division home games.

Play over

Last week: Packers lost 34-31 to the Detroit Lions and could easily come out flat this week after that back and forth affair. Meanwhile, Seattle , is in top form and off their 4th straight victory and must be respected here as an underdog. The Packers defense  will enter this game exhausted after the amount of time they spent last week defending against the explosive Lions offense.It must be noted that sides that are away playing in back to back  games after their defense allowed 70+ plays in their previous contest  are a bad proposition going  72-103 SU dating back 10 seasons. 

Seattle is 11-1 ATS as division home dog. Seattle is 5-1 against the money line hosting Green Bay since the 2005 season.

Play on Seahawks to cover

QB Anthony Richardson is 4-1 ATS as a dog in his career.  I know Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year , but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end. Indy is also well rested and off a bye week where they own a 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS record-Colts are 2-0 SUATS, scoring 69 combined points in both games off a bye this season. Before the bye, the Colts did grab a moneyline win but did not cover vs  the Patriots.

In Anthony Richardson’s short career, he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in his previous game. also in play is desperation as Indy needs a win badly here to get a chance at a play off spot. Im betting for them to leave everything on the field today . 

Play on Colts

The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS as dogs this season, but Im betting that comes to end like all good and bad runs do. Note:  The Steelers have lost 10 straight games in Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread in 9 straight away versus the Eagles and Im betting nothing changes today in a rinse and repeat situation.  Philadelphia in home games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record are 11-1 L/12 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.4.

Play on the Eagles to cover 

The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 57.5 ppg scored. 

The Steelers secondary has been inconsistent this season, and Im betting Eagles Hurts pushes them this week, as the Eagles coaching staff unanimously has said they need to have their passing game going as the post season approaches, and will be out to get things rolling today in a aggressive fashion after struggling last week vs the Carolina Panthers. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be without two starting defenders as- safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjob. On the flip-side I know the Steelers will be without star WR Pickens, but this is a great opportunity for some other guys to stand tall. All in all my projections estimate a score in the 47 point range giving us an edge to the over.

Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER L/6  in 2nd of back to back home games . and 8-2 OVER  L/10 non-conference  home games.  Nick Sirianni as a HC of the eagles in home games in the second half of the season is 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 53 ppg.

Pittsburgh 7-3 L/10 OVER  as non-division road dogs of  6  or less.Pittsburgh games after playing a game at home have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 47.6 ppg scored.Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 Over the total in last nine starts as non-conference road underdog.

Play over

 The lead referee for this game  Bill Vinovich, is 59% to the under historically in his career.

The Panthers have gone 33 consecutive games as underdogs, and the L/9 times they have been listed as favs they have lost ATS. Im betting nothing changes here today vs a side that Im sure is ready to perform here this week after a last minute breakdown vs Cincinnati that resulted in a loss last time out.  HC Mcarthy is on the hot seat and you can bet he will be primed to have his team  perform optimally. NFL teams like Dallas with a money line of +130 to -150 - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 14 through 17 are 26-7 since 2020. Dallas vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season are 6-0 ATS L/6 dating back to last season.Mike McCarthy versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game is 8-1 ATS with Dallas.

Dallas to cover

Military Bowl teams have gone 29-5 under overall L/34 and these two sides in particular are on a 16-1-1 under run! After their big win in AAC championship game vs Tulane - Army may find it difficult to bring the same  fire they had last week into a rivalry game that will see them face a ramped up Navy side . They could start slow offensively and that as well as this being guaranteed to be a physical affair make for a low scoring game. 

Play under

After their big win vs Tulane last time out in their  AAC championship game , Im betting /Army may not have the fire they need to deal with long time rivals Navy or at least be as proficient as they were in that last win which makes getting points a viable option with a Navy side that will be ramped up and ready to go. 

Navy to cover

49ers QB Brock Purdy has played on Thursday Night Football four times and in those prime time  tilts is a perfect   4-0 SU/ATS, covering ATS by an average of  7.9 PPG. He has the dubious distinction of being the only QB since 2003 to be a perfect  4-0 SUATS under the  TNF lights.Also Purdy is 7-1 SU, at home in night games and 3-0 ATS vs the NFC West. I know  that SF is on short rest but Purdy thrives in these situations cashing 6 of 8 ATS.  It must also be noted that. the Niners  are 2-0 SU/ATS in night games at home this season, scoring 30 plus points in both tilts. . Ill also mention that  Brock Purdy tends to do well  vs weaker secondaries. With the Rams ranked near the bottom of the league with a  Dropback EPA per play allowed  of (0.162) this season, the 49ers QB should do well, 

 Meanwhile on  the flipside QB Stafford’s is 4-7 ATS vs. 49ers lifetime , including 2-6 SU in his last eight starts vs. 49ers. Yes , he did notch the victory  back in Week 3, but  has never won two in a row SU vs the Niners in his career and Im betting that mark stays intact after tonight.

San Francisco is  9-5 SU when facing a side it lost to as a favorite earlier in the season under HC Kyle Shanahan while, the  Rams has lost 16 of 27 as road underdogs of 7 or less with HC Sean McVay.

NFL  team like the Rams - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 6-26 ATS since 1983.

NFL Favorites like the 49ers- after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, when playing on a Thursday are 26-5 ATS since 1983.

San Francisco is statistically better on both sides of the ball, and have momentum entering this tilt and with the market suggesting the Niners are the right side I feel confident that we cash a ticket today. 

Play on the 49ers- 

This seems from a historical stand point at least to be a good spot for Dallas as they have won six consecutive games SU in the last 20 years in the game after Thanksgiving at home. Boyz QB Cooper Rush has made ten career starts and and has cashed 7 of those 10 starts . If he is  underdog  of  less than 7 points, he is a perfect  5-0 ATS. I know Joe Burrows is absolute gunslinger, but his D, has let him down consistently this season, and in no way shape or form can be trusted in the favorites role on the road.  The Bengals  Swiss Cheese D,  has allowed at least 34 points in each of its last five games. Dallas versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 6-0 ATS dating back to 2023.

It must be noted that  the linesmakers believe this will be settled at in around the 6 point range. The Bengals are 1-7 SU this season in one score games . Overall the Bengals are 4-1 ATS L/5 MNF contests and have covered 4 straight games in this series. 

NFLRoad favorites - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are just 2-21 ATS since 1983.

NFL Road favorites - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-30 ATS since 1983.

Dallas to cover

Cheifs starter Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS vs. AFC West this season and 4-10-1 ATS over the last three seasons vs. his division. As an underdog of more than 3 pts,  Also Mahomes is now 24-39-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 pts or more since 2020   On the flipside Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 10-2-1 ATS in his pro career, including 6-1-1 ATS vs. the AFC West.In Herbert’s career, he is 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 or more in night starts . Considering the way the Chiefs play most of their games close, as is evident by winnging 9 games so far  this season by 7 points or less, it will not be hard for me to take the road dog here in this spot. 

Play on LA Chargers  to cover

QB Allen when has started games outside of the EST in his NFL career,   is 14-8 ATS and 6-1 SU in his last seven starts in  west trips away. Since 2020, Josh Allen is 29-4 SU vs. teams under .500, winning by 13.4 PPG and he gets the nod again here in this spot play vs the over hyped Rams who's  QB Stafford is  3-15 SU as a dog.

Bills are  also on a 7-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 SU and are traveling across the country on a short week coming off SNF and when NFL teams like the Bills are traveling from EST to play a tilt on the  road game in PST  they are 84-58-6 ATS  dating back 8 season, including 21-12-1 ATS in the last two seasons.Since 2019, road favorites on a 3+ game SU win streak like buffalo  having to make the trip from EST to PST are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS.

Play on the Bills to cover

Saints over all body of work does not compute when it comes to making them road favs , no not even against a downtrodden NY Giants group. It must be noted that Saints QB Derek Carr is 5-11 SU and 1-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2020 and is fade material here again.New Orleans in away or neutral games on the money line after scoring 14 points or less last game have lost 7 of their L/8 SU and have not been able to take advantage of teams like the Gmen that own a poor passing defense - that allows a comp. pct. of 61% or worse losing 7 of their L/8 SU. Also Brian Daboll off a road loss against a division rival is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities. NYG QB  Lock is  5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS at home in his NFL career when his team is coming off a loss.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

This non division game projects to be a high scoring one. Note: All game 13s non-division  NFL confrontations  are 12-1 OVER L/13  when the home team is favored  in these non-division tilts for a potent 92% conversion rate..  Tampa Bay in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points (6 games dating back to 2022) have seen a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored.   Las Vegas games after playing their last game on the road are 6-0 OVER with a combined average 50 ppg scored.

Over ha cashed at a  8-0-1 rate in the last nine in this  series.

Play over

Since their embarrassing defeat at the hands of Georgia in their first game of the season, Clemson has scratched and clawed their way back for shot at the ACC title. They go against a explosive SMU side that has been very dominating this season. However, the Mustangs lack of experience in this type of big game maybe daunting . Clemson has the pedigree and coaching to win this game outright , and are a perfect 7-0 SU in their L/7 ACC championship games.Dabo Swinney in December games has won 16 of his L/21 games .

Play on Clemson to cover

The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and is 20th in overall YPP. and has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.     I know Miami O has a viable D, but the Bobcats according to my projections  will be putting a decent amount of points on the board here today vs the RedHawks,. Meanwhile, Miami O QB Brett Gabbert,  has  six seasons under center and has gone to the air regularly this season as is evident by making the  most pass attempts he’s had in a single campaign. He also has accumulated  10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio and also projects to have a decent day here.These two teams played during the regular season and Miami took a 30-20 victory and Im betting a combined score in the same vicinity here today.  CFB teams like Ohio where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game have seen a combined average score of 53.9 ppg since the 1992 season with a sample size of 35 games ( 29-6 OVER) . CFB team like Miami O against the total - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 50.4 ppg which covers a huge sample size 300 gmes dating back to 2020 ( 60% of the games eclipsed the total).

Play over

Army has played one top-30 team and it was Notre Dame and they were smashed in that tilt  by a  49-14 count.  Meanwhile, Tulane dealt well with Navi's run heavy  attack and took a  35-0 shut out win .  Navy only produced  100 yards on 35 carries, and answered back with a top tier running game of their own with  48 carries while accumulating 220 yards. Looks like a couple of teams and coaches now know how to handle these run heavy triple option attacks ie Notre Dame and Tulane and more success Im betting is on today's championship agenda.  HC Jon Sumrall’s  was 5-0 SU ATS as a road favorite this season and are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings vs Army.   Jeff Monken in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game is 0-5 ATS.

Play on Tulane to cover

 Last season, the the Green By Packers visited Ford Field and took a  29-22  decision as as 8.5-point underdogs and I wont be surprised if they pull off the SU upset here. Yes, I know the Lions have really been rolling this season, but playing at the that high level of non stop attack football results in regression at some point, and last week against the Bears, in the 2nd half that became obvious in a game they were lucky to have won. I know where the public stands here, and Im going to go directly against Joe six pack and take the points with the hard working well coached underdog. The Packers are  22-11 ATS  as an underdog since 2019 and HC Matt Lafleur is a bankroll expanding 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points dating back 5 seasons.  Green Bay vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season are 8-0 ATS L/8 opportunities and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season.

Play on the Green Bay Packers

Denvers QB  Bo Nix has  ascended quickly with his pro football game and now looking like everything the Denver  Broncos hds wished for  from a signal caller. In his L/3 trips to the gridiron , Nix has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions and has passed for a total of 580 yards in his last two games, and according to my projections should flourish here against a less than. stellar Cleveland secondary. I know we have to lay a little lumber here, but it must also be noted that the  Broncos have  double digit victories in their L/5 wins. Also QB Bo Nix has only closed as a favorite (chalk) five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per tilt. 

Play on Denver to cover

Lamar Jackson is 26-6 ATS in the regular season when he is either listed as an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less in under these perimeters he    is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS, covering ATS  by an average  15.2 PPG. On the flispide, 

 It must also be noted that HC Nick Sirianni has never had to put a game plan togther to stop the multi faceted talent of Lamar Jackson in his coaching career . In Lamar Jackson’ career vs a  coach he faced for the  first time he is 37-7 on the moneyline SU for a 84% conversion rate. Lamar Jackson is 27-9 SU and 22-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018. 

The Ravens are also  14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages  66.7%  or better since 2020. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (Eagles) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, in December games are 8-29 ATS since 2015

This is where the Ravens seem to shine against the very best teams. 

NFL teams like Washington  that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 57-37 SU but 35-55-4 ATS when favored by 3 points or more since 2010. 

Washingtons HC  Dan Quinn is on an 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS run when coming off an upset loss and is an ugly  4-15 SU and 3-15 ATS vs. AFC dating back 8 seasons. the Commanders are also  1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents, while putting just  15.6 PPG on the board. 

Since 2018, teams  like the Titans off a straight up victory as a road pup vs. divisional opponent the week before are 68-44-4 ATS (61%) in their next game.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line or straight up - after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 or less points are just 4-21 since 2015 .Washington has lost 10 of their L/12 2nd half of the season games.

Tennessee on the money line /SU against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season is 8-0 L/8 opportunities.

Tennessee has the better D between these two sides , and QB Daniels and company continue to regress as this season goes on and are playing more like many of the pundits expected in preseason predictions. The road side has covered 7 straight in this series, and now getting this many points vs down graded Washington side is a solid bet.  This season, QB  Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. 

Play on Tennessee 

Houston has  dominated in their recent trips  to Jacksonville, Flordia to play the Jaguars , winning their last five trips SU. , Houston is also  10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road vs. Jaguars, covering the spread by an average  6.3 PPG dating back 13 seasons. Note: NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 26-5 ATS since 2015 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.6 . In the regular season, Doug Pederson is just 2-5 SU/ATS off a  bye, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 points per game. 

Play on Texans to cover

 USC is play well entering this rivalry game as they are  3-1 in their last four games. They have one loss at home, and it was the overtime loss to Penn State and they must be respected here  as underdogs. 

The Fighting Irish are  0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or less points, USC HC  Lincoln Riley,  has recorded a  9-4-1 ATS mark  as a dog and . The hosts  are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of Notre Dame-USC rivalry. 

Play on USC to cover

 Away sides  are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in this  series since 2017. Coastal Carolina can earn bowl eligibility with a win here and they will be motivated. Chanticleers are 4-0 ATS L/4 season finales and get the nod again in this spot play. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 8-36 ATS since 1992.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

These teams (programs)Michigan-Ohio St games have seen t 10 straight meetings go over the total,  Ohio State is a three touchdown favorite in this one according to Vegas, and my projections estimate they will put 4 plus TDS on the board here while allowing Michigans offense to put two plus TDS on the board. Ohio State games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 8-1 L/9 with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored.Ryan Day games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average 62.2 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

BAYLOR has won the last 11 SU and ATS versus Kansas. Rinse and repeat based on current form of both sides.Kansas  is 4-15 ATS L/19 as favorite since 2018.  Baylor is one of eight Big 12 teams still alive in the race for the Big 12 title game and have plenty of motivation to get the job done here today. CFB road team - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 49-14 ATS since the 2020 season.

Play on Baylor to cover