UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum .

"Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams.

TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10  in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS   in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)

Play UL Monroe to cover 

The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their  defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times  during their current smash down of offenses.   I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude. 

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.  GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS   in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Its not my usual m.o to  lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday  Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and  covered the last 3. 

Play on UTSA to cover 

The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated  30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State  in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

Baylor has covered  13 of their L/14  as an underdog when out looking for  conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts.

.BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated  and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going  0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a  go against 92% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate.

Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.

Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27  ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . 

Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Texans to cover 

According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The  inconsistent Saints  played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a  offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam

PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Saints to cover 

Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . 

 Miami is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS  in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week  and  are capable of competing  here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after  QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games .  

Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

Last time out future HOF  QB  Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game.  I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady  is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. 

Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes  against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay to cover 

Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia  are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.

Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now  this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion. 

Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants. 

ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg. 

ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 30 ppg. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Alabama to cover

After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav.  Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992.

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial  wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and  beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board. 

Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are   still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season . 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide  last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty. 

The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points . 

 Arkansas is  8-1 ATS as a  underdog of 16 or fewer points. 

Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas

East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end  vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort.

Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season.  The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season  scoring  a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate!

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally.  In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time.

Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB  Gabbert  who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory.

Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted  . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern.

The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit.

OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS   off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.

Play on Miami O to cover

The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU  L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here.

NEW ORLEANS is also just  9-22 ATS  L/31  against AFC North division opponents .

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, 

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts.

Play on Baltimore to win /cover

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). 

TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS   in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. 

After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay  is 10-5 ATS as a  road dog and  10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The  Rams’  also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. 

Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS  off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better  minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover

These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today. 

ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.  ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS  in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia  are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D.  The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers.  Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note:  Dawgs HC  Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times  as a favorite of less than 20 points,  and has won 8 straight games against  undefeated foes.

CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a  win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a  Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just  4.25 penalties per game. 

Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016.

MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game .

MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home. 

Play on Memphis to cover

 Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups  and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays. 

BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS  in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win.

BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and  are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is  0-5 ATS at home against  a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.

Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated,  ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. 

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road  at Iowa last season  and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS.  With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC  averaging  17.3 PPG  on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs. 

Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Duke to cover 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a  17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform. 

Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out. 

Chadwell is 6-0 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA.

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone  defense   where they rank  top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks.  Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and  Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan. 

Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

 Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.

Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. 
However with that said it must be noted QB Rodgers is 40-15 SU in his career in October, tilts including 8-1 ATS as a pup of 2 points or more. The inconsistent star seems to stand tall in these types of games , however, as is evident by his  5-0 SU /ATS mark in tilts he enters with a sub .500 record when going against top tier competition with a  .750 or better win percentage. When the chips are down Im betting the Packers find a way to be competitive in this nationally televised prime time event. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Green Bay to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on  their  24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco  in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort.

McVay is 10-2 ATS  after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play.

NFL  Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Take the points with Carolina to cover 

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by  Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat.

Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more  points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted  its last  three  opponents to score  56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is  16-4 SU and 16-3  ATS when coming off two wins exact. 

Shaw is 20-10 ATS  in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD.

Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record  last 14 games in this series,  covering 11 of those games. 

Play on Stanford to cover

Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive.  S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

 The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season  allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition  and  have been shredded  against ground attacks  as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game   off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week. 

TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). 

CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440  or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter.   Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7.

Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts  when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I. 

CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU  for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wow what an emotional  hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead  and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson.  The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side.  ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and  they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age?  Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect .  The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. .  Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is  10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record  and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and  0-5-1 ATS  in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong  defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical  yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss  will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry.

Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home . 

Play on Southern Miss to cover

 The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said  I will  back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3  or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover

KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the  NFL  QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense  they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 

49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff  clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

Giants Im betting will  continue their  upward momentum  on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars.  The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue.  

NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS   in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Jaguars 0-18 SU  in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of  Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night. 

Fleck is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

Franklin is 7-22 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST. 

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career,  js  0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss  Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game . 

Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi state to cover 

Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover .

STANFORD is 2-9 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Shaw is 3-11 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD.

Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Play on Arizona State to cover

Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is  42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season. 

 PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate!

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game.  Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just  3-13 SU away against opposition  with a better record.  Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State.

I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

 The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming.

OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater. 

OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. 

Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. 

Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. 

CFB  team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS  and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note:  The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games.

Buffalo owns a solid  12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes. 

Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019.

CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover

UAB owns  the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the  Blazers have allowed  opposition quarterbacks to complete  just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just  176.6 passing yards per game.

Note:  Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only  319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win.  On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today. 

The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight. 

Clark is 12-1 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog.

WKU is 0-8 ATS as  single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side.

Play on UAB to cover 

South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall. 

S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home.

TROY is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on Troy to cover 

 QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is  15-2-1 ATS in his  career  as an underdog vs opposition  coming off consecutive victories  like the Chargers , including a stellar  8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week ,  but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt.  I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today.

Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chiefs to cover 

Arizona is more than capable of  taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on  QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. 

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

The visiting team is  15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting  Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB ,  where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is  12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS  after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. 

NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for.

Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS  L/10 NFC East, including  0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is  5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. 

Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS  in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are  in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB  Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and  Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook  to  explode on the Miami defense  and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. 

MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

San Jose State 12-0 SUATS  as a road favorite in games when coming off a double-digit win like last time out by a 40-7 count vs UNLV. Im betting on the Spartans up trending to continue here vs a Fresno State side that is 0-4 SU/ATS this season, with a lack of offense being a key problem for them (23.6 ppg). SAN JOSE ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 as a road favorite . 

Plus we have revenge on board here by Brennan and company as Fresno State smashed San Jose State last season by a 40-7 count. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 14-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 

Clemson at 6-0 is getting better with each passing week and have an edge over a Florida state side that has lost two straight after a fast start.Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series and gets the nod here as Im betting they continue their upward momentum. 

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Huskies have dropped two straight, including last week’s 45-38 loss at Arizona State and really need a big game, and Im betting they get it. note: Arizona QB Jayden de Laura  the last time he was here with Arizona State was inserting a giant flag featuring the Washington State logo in the turf at midfield after leading the Cougars to an Apple Cup smash down  last November.   I know de Laura is not  with the Cougars anymore but you can bet the Huskies will be primed for payback this Saturday and could easily be merciless in romp to a big DD victory. 

ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS  in road games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. ARIZONA is 4-22 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

James Madison at 5-0 gets all the headlines and alot of support from the pundits buy the Eagles (3-3) own the  top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 11th-best passing offense in the nation and must not be underestimated in their abilities to keep things close because of their offensive prowess and  give us in a worse case scenario a back door cover . With that said, will will go against the public darlings, and take the underdog. GA SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover 

The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-31 victory over UTEP to open Conference USA play, which was the programs six straight conference-opening win.Quarterback Parker McNeil has thrown for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per completion (14.8) and is more than capable of leading his team to a cover here and even a SU win. Note:LA Tech ranks third nationally with five plays from scrimmage over sixty yards. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in plays from scrimmage over 30 yards with 16. I know North Texas has won seven-straight C-USA matchups dating back to Oct. 30, 2021 which is the longest active streak in the league and the fourth-longest streak nationally, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end.LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS and  straight up against NORTH TEXAS since 1992 here in this venue and a rinse and repeat situation is possibly at hand and more important a cover . 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 47-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Alabama QB Bryce Young is questionable and if he plays will be less than 100% giving an edge to what will be a hyped up home team ready to make an imprint on the SEC.  Tennessee is the real deal behind stud QB QB Herndon Hooker and must be respected here getting points. I know the Vols have lost 15 straight to Bama, but the under valued Vols have already ended 5-game losing streaks to Florida and LSU and like the old saying goes 3s a charm. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

BYU is off a hard fought loss to Notre Dame last week, and now in. a emotional letdown state go against a tough Arkansas squad in a vulnerable state .  Note: Cougars are just  1-8 ATS versus SEC opposition dating back 32 seasons. Arkansas HC Sam Pitman is   7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in his career vs non conference opposition. 

BYU is 19-37 ATS L/56 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Sitake is 5-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

ARKANSAS is 23-9 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

CFB home team (BYU) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 44-82 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play. on Arkansas to cover 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TCU) - after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on TCU

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 42-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff at +22.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

After smashing Oklahoma by a 49-0 count last week, I expect the Longhorns to be in an emotional letdown spot here in this tilt vs Iowa State. Iowa State after a close last time out to Kansas State now finds itself in desperation mode and Im betting they leave everything on the filed this week. Note: Cyclones HC Campbell is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in conference tilts , including 10-0 ATS against winning sides. 

TEXAS is 20-35 ATS   after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Iowa state has won and covered the last two meetings in this series. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected  fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total.

Campbell is 10-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Navy has looked good of late after starting lethargically at 0-2. They have won 2 of their L/3 with the only loss a 13-10 heart breaker to military rivals Air Force. Today against SMU Im betting the Middies triple option run heavy offense keeps them in this game vs a SMU side thatS ranks 106th in rush yards allowed this season allowing  179 yards per game. 

NAVY is 8-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  in road games off an upset win as a home underdog which was the case last time out vs Tulsa . 

SMU is 6-16 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

CFB team (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 10-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36+ minutes) are 44-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

QB Justin Fields just has not shown much at this level and all the excuses in the world or pundits calling for new coordinators will not do it in my humble opinion. The Bears 32nd ranked passing offense is in a shambles and the offense as a whole is in the same boat thanks to their woeful passing attack. Meanwhile, Washington will be motivated to bounce back after blowing chance to beat Tennessee last week . QB Wentz screwed up allowing an interception on the 1 yard line , and it was horrifying to watch. Now with PTSD firmly in place, I look for the shell shocked Commodores to bounce back and get rid of their MIA status. 

All games played at CHICAGO since 1992-WASHINGTON is 6-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO .WASHINGTON is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO .

NFL team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just 13-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to win 

Temple’s visits  the Bounce House tonight in a game that Im betting will not go well for them. Temple just does not travel well  going 0-6 SU/ATS L/6 away and that trend should stay intact vs  team that is a  defensive juggernaut   as they  lead  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 47% of their trips to the red zone, converting on 9-of-19 attempts. The Knights have only allowed four touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips for opponents.

Duke shutout Temple in their first game this season, and than last time out scored just 3 points so scoring will be an issue this evening for them again. Meanwhile, UCF has averaged 35.6 ppg so far this season on offense and another points  explosion is not out of the question on their home turf on Space night where they have won all 5 of these themed tilts. Note: The Owls have been destroyed by UCF in their last 3 meetings by an average 36.3 ppg. 

  Since 2017, the Knights are 33-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.

TEMPLE is 0-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 71-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover

Baylor is the overall superior side, but West Virginia is always dangerous because of their explosive offense. Here at home West Virginia Im betting has enough of an edge on this line to get us the cover. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 at home in this series.

Note: Losing to Oklahoma State at home last time will take a little bit out the Bears and their performance could easily be muted.  

Brown is 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of W VIRGINIA.

Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Mountaineers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Bears are 7-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a  Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8  ppg scored. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play UNDER 

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards  signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. 

Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS   vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

 Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! 

DETROIT is 3-12 ATS  in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. 

NFL  team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover 

Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. 

Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. 

In the previous 7 international  games that have featured favs  of more than 7 points  the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. 

Play on Green Packers to cover 

Washington State looks explosive offensively behind the arm of QB transfer Cameron Ward who is being looked at very closely by NFL scouts. I know USC has a fine group this season, but it must also be noted that  USC is 1-9 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. With a look ahead revenger against Utah on board next week, its not out of the realm of possibility that the Trojans could get caught looking ahead and a vulnerable spot as DD favs. 

USC is 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. Dickert is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game at home as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Kentucky took a gut-wrenching, 22-19 loss at No. 14 Ole Miss last week, and despite of being angry because of bad calls, from the officials will have a hard time in what must be considered a huge letdown scenario.Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

South Carolina has had promising performances since its blowout loss to Georgia in Week 3. They can be excused for their performance vs one of college footballs top teams, so Im not underestimating their ability to compete vs a good but slightly over rated Kentucky side. 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

The Illinois defense is currently ranked  No. 1 in the nation in scoring D allowing  a little  over eight points per game. Here today against a Iowa side that struggles to score averaging just 16.4 ppg they have an edge. Last week the Illini held Wisconsin to just 10 points and a rinse and repeat situation is on board here this week in what the lines-makers are suggesting will be a low scoring battle. Illinois has the better offensive flow and will get the job done and bring us home the dough. 

Fighting Illini are 7-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Illinois to cover

 Texas State owns  the 4th-best defense in the Sun Belt and the No. 2 pass defense and have the ability to stay within the underdog line here at home vs the offensively explosive Mounties .

Despite of App States offensive attributes they  have looked inconsistent at times this season and with  Coach Shawn Clarke at the helm of  the Mountaineers they are just  8-15-1 ATS as favs.  Meanwhile, Texas State is  , 6-1-1 ATS when a home dog the past three years plus, and are  6-1-1 ATS at home versus teams with a better record than themselves. 

TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

Play on Texas State to cover 

The Sun Devils have taken part in a tough schedule with three previous opponents  ranked in top 11 of the AP Poll at the time of their tilts. Now battle tested against top tier opposition Im betting they will not be intimidated here at home and get us the cover like they did last week. Note: Wash is just  1-8 ATS  lL9 as road chalk  of 7 or more points . Meanwhile, the Sun Devils 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series and deserve respect getting this many points .  The last time the Huskies won in Tempe was 2001 with a late FG. 

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA ST is 27-11 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Pittsburgh Panthers lost at home to Georgia Tech  as 21-point favorites last time out, and despite of wanting to get redemption may find the sledding tougher than anticipated once again this week. I know the Hokies do not inspire most bettors, but they still own a  defense, that allows just 310-YPG ranking No. 26 overall in the nation. Considering the  issues Pittsburgh has shown so far it very much looks like we have en edge taking a 2 TD or more underdog in this spot play. 

Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Narduzzi is 10-20 ATS  as a home favorite as the coach of PITTSBURGH.PITTSBURGH is 16-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.

Play on VTech to cover 

Utah is know for its toughness, but this group of Bruins are equally rugged, behind offensive line that leads the nation in fewest tackles for loss per game allowed. The Bruins ground game is also in a groove , and functioning with better flow than Utes are. I know Utahs D, is nasty good, but the Florida  Gators ran for 283 yards against them, and Im betting the Bruins can replicate that and help get us the cover in the process. 

UCLA is 5-0 SUATS since 2000 as an unbeaten home dog.  

UCLA is 22-8 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 34-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover