Its. been disappointing season for both Utah and Central Florida, both have tangible parts but none that seem to get them to where they need to go. Im betting on the Utes superior defense, slowing UCFa offense just enough to get us the cover here. UCF has lost 11 of its last 12 games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

Play on the Utah to cover

Its obvious what type of game we are going to have here today. Let the chant begin. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. College football season finale games expected to be defensive helmet  to helmet smashers  have lived up to expectations . In the last  21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 ( Lots of 39.5 on the board at the time of this selection.

Play under .

 Georgia’s goals for the season won't be decided here and  will remain in front of them even if they lose , so Im not expecting to see Georgia at their very best. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is going to a mid range Bowl Game and thats as good as it gets so you can bet the Techies will be primed to play here vs a side that maybe looking ahead to bigger and better things. Away sides are 18-4-1 ATS in GT-Georgia rivalry since 2000. 

 Play on Georgia Tech. 

Visiting sides  and underdogs  are on a 7-1-1 ATS run this Ole Miss/Miss State  series . Im betting this game will be alot closer than the stats might indicate. 

Miss State to cover

UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series. This will be a hard fought game despite of discrepancies. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Ohio Bobcats  have been the driver season in  this series in recent meetings  cashing 4 straight SUATS with an average ppg diff. clicking in at  21.5. The Bobcats have rolled , winning in the stats by an average  125 yards per game and outscoring their opposition  147-33. Rinse and repeat here vs Ball State as a  Ohio victory will put them in the MAC title game. 

Play on Ohio to cover

Navy has won its last eight games ATS versus East Carolina. E.Carolina Pirates in finales are just : 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS and as has been the past not a reliable side to back in any situation. 

Play on Navy to cover

Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°F, with about 7-10 MPH winds.Miamis QB Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times , Miami is 0-4 SU in those tilts , failing to cover the  by an average of  18 PPG. In the 3 of those 4 games had windy conditions the QB ,saw his team score 39 total points. The Last 20 years, Dolphins have played 27 total games in 40° temperatures or colder, and they are now on a current 1-10 SU run  in their last 11 trips to the gridiron. In 32° temperatures or colder like tonights expected temp the Fins have lost their  last nine games , since 2013. Tua Tagovailoa has played in 13 night games (5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS) and Im betting things dont go much better here. 

Overall, Tua has not faired well in  night games. He’s 4-9 ATS in his career and he’s never covered consecutive night games within the same season . Note : He covered vs. Rams at night in his last start earlier this season.Tua has faced nine teams that are .500 or better  in night games, recording 1-6 SU in his last 7 games, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in night games vs. teams with a win rate of .600 or better.

On the road or a neutral site, Tua has started 13 games vs. teams above .500, and has lost 11 of 13 on the moneyline including  losing 8 consecutive games SU.

Chalk in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since  2006. 

Play on the Packers to cover

Two 9-2 teams go head to head this week. Tulane is a fine team, but Memphis are no pushovers, which makes for a value  play with the underdog. The rested  Tigers are 12-3 ATS off a. bye and have really been playing well  having out-gained their last four sides they have played  by an average of 115 yards  per game. Memphis has the guns to stay close here behind   QB Seth Henigan and 1,000-yard rusher  RB Mario Anderson. Memphis is 3-0 ATS L/3 with revenge in this series.

Advantage Memphis 

This total according to my projections are just a little on the low side and the over offers up profit potential. No Thanksgiving game  has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season  with 2 of 3 eclipsing that number. (Dallas Home games on Thursdays have gone 5-0 OVER  last 4 years and the last 4 Thanksgiving day Cowboys totals have the eclipsed the offering. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving dating back 14 seasons. Dallas/NYG L/5 meetings have all gone over the total. THURSDAY Division Home favorites when the Totals offering is  47  or less  the OVER 9-2  for a 82% conversion rate sinde the 2020 season.

Dallas home games after scoring 30 points or more last game are 8-1 over with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. HC Mike McCarthy home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 17-4 OVER with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

I know the Giants had a problem scoring last week putting just 7 points on the board, but it must be noted  NFL road dogs who scored 7 point or less playing as hosts last week , when the OU line is 47 or less are 10-1-1 L/12 opportunities. Also NFL home chalk of  4 points ore more  who were division road DOGS of +7 or more last week like Dallas ( +10) are 17-1 OVER in their follow up tilt. 

Play over

Detroit is 0-3 on Thanks Giving under HC Campbell, but Im betting with a big chip on their shoulders and revenge on board  for a DD loss on the road last season to the Bears we see this explosive Lions side light up their opponents in merciless fashion. Anything cam happen but the advantage based on the on field product and historical trends tells us we have value with this home favorite. Quote: “I don’t like being grumpy around family,” QB Goff said. "No one does. You want to win this game and be able to enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner with your family and it’ll be my first time experiencing that here and I want to do that.” END QUOTE

Motivational factors also favor the 10-1 home side. 

Note: Bears,  haven't won a game since Oct. 13 and haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet this season and just because of a couple strong efforts does not mean they are ready for this kind of opponent. 

Chalk on Thanksgiving are 48-9  (SU) and 38-19 (ATS).Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving dating back 19 seasons and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card since its introduction in 1990. You can can than correlate why the line stays shy of 10, its either because of smart money or the books just playing along with the public on the numbers game from a historical ATS perspective. Since  Wild Card was introduced in 1990, favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS. 

 NFL teams playing at home  like the Lions on Thursdays after winning at least their L4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 opportunities. Motown  is also 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory since 2018.  DET is 8-1 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving L/ 30 years. QB Goff’s 15-5 ATS in his career vs. NFC North.  Goff is 34-19-2 ATS  at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.

Bears have also not been a good bet in  divisional matchups in recent  seasons, recording a 9-21-2 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings dating back 5 seasons and are  are 0-4 SU overall on the road this season and 3-18 SU last three campaigns. Bears HC Matt Eberflus is 1-15 SU against . teams with a .600 or better  win pct on the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 31-3 since 2020 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Detroit Lions 

Toledo lost last time out and will not be going to the MAC championship round. They dont really have alot to play. for other than pride, and gaining a momentum builder before their post season  bowl game . Im betting however,  that will be enough for them to have the  motivation needed to end their season on a positive note. NFL  home team - bad team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game are 13-44 ATS since 2015 . 

Key to game here is the Rockets top tier D, and the Zips complete lack of D, that has  allowed over six yards per play to conference foes. Akron went off on Kent last week in big offensive explosion and win, and will now face negative regression putting them at a disadvantage. 

NFL Home underdogs vs. the money line - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-66 since the 1992 season with average ppg diff of-13 which qualifies on this ATS offering .

Toledo to cover

QB Lamar Jackson owns the night. He is 19-5 SU (79%) at night with the two of those loses coming in post season. The Ravens Jackson is in bounce back mode after losing to Steelers last time out . Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. .

In his career, Lamar is  6-2 ATS at a road or neutral site or  at home after a loss and when he has been favored by less than 3 pts or a underdog  he is 6-0 ATS.

The Ravens are 25-7 SU when listed as a favorite the week after facing the Steelers.

Play on the Ravens to cover

This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season, and Im now betting both offensive coordinators their players have a better feel on attack each other defenses. In the recent past when these teams played in their 2nd game of the season all 3 games eclipsed the total with a combined average of 49.6 ppg scored.

NFL team like New England where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 41-14 OVER since 1983 with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Lions offense is averaging 34  ppg on the season, and 38.5 ppg in the last month of play and virtually looks unstoppable entering this game at Indianapolis a team that ranks lower half of the league in ppg allowed at 19th. So Im betting the Lions, scoring more than 33 points and the Colts offense in chase mode in game that easily eclipses the offered total. Detroit games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-0 OVER with a combined average of 60 points per game scored.Shane Steichen home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games are 5-0 over with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The Colts are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS against the NFC North division opponents like the Lions. The  Colts have history of standing tall vs top tier opponents and  are al  10-0 ATS against .800 or greater opp . The Lions will be the Lions and rockn roll offensively but could they easily find themselves in a letdown spot on the road, and give up a-lot more points than expected. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 13-40 ATS since the 2015 season.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

 Let down scenario for the Bears is on board this Sunday, as they once again lost the Green Bay Packers last time out despite of leading late in the game.  Chicago is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Packers and are fade material this week.  Here vs a strong Viking side ,Matt Eberflus  and company are in for tough ride. The HC has taken on  16 teams with a  .500 or better record  SU with the Bears  recording a   2-14 SU mark and is 1-14 SU vs. teams with a .600 or better  win pct .

Vikings to cover

Fins top gun QB  Tua Tagovailoa is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS vs. teams with lower tier  point differentials of 4.5 PPG or less like the Pats  since the  2022 campaign.  The Dolphins have dominated this series ATS recently. Miami has covered the spread in 8 straight games vs. Patriots dating back to December of 2020.  QB  Tua Tagovailoa in his  career,  has closed as a favorite of six or more points 15 times recording a  14-1 SU mark and and 11-4 ATS in those tilts and gets the nod for the cover in this spot play..

Play on the Dolphins to cover

Bears offense looked good last week in a win vs West Virginia , but what was not a good look was that the Mountaineers putt  499 yards up  an also that Baylor  looked very undisciplined  as they were penalized for  90 yards in penalties. Here against a Houston team that has played progressively better as the season has aged behind a top tier defense, it wont be easy for Baylor to succeed  and some obvious regression should rare its ugly head this week . Also as was stated above Houston should have success moving the chains,  vs a side that has allowed an average of 36 ppg in their L/6 trips to the gridiron giving us a viable underdog to back. I know the Cougars looked lifeless last time out vs ASU, but that down effort Im betting was an anomaly as they get refocused here in attempt to get a Bowl invite. 

Play on Houston to cover

UCF has failed to cover 12 of their L/13 in conference games when coming off a close loss of 7-points or less and have lost 10 of its L11 games ATS as a favorite in conference play. Gus Malzahn after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more is 0-6 ATS ( Lost to ASU last week 35-31)Neal Brown on the money line off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has won SU of 11 of his L/17 opportunities. With

QB Garrett Greene back in the lineup after recovering from a upper body injury over the last few weeks the Mounties looked like viable dogs. 

Play on West Virginia 

BYU was bad in the red zone last week, scoring 6 points in four possessions, including an interception and turnover on downs and now Im betting on positive regression.

To extend its school record eight year bowl streak, Kentucky must win out vs. Texas and Louisville. Desperation is the key here. 

Play on Kentucky

UL Monroe is in a complete tailspin as is evident by losing 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is off a big underdog win vs Georgia State last time out and now will get a Bowl appearance and have momentum entering this tilt   Arkansas State  is on 14-0 SU & ATS run versus LA Monroe and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to manifest itself this Saturday as these teams operate at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum.  Butch Jones after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 5-0 ATS L/5 which was the case last time out.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-20 since the 2020 season with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Eight of UAB's last nine games against conference opponents at Protective Stadium have gone OVER the total .

These teams are  6-0 OVER  in all six h2h meetings in Birmingham since 2005.

Temple just fired Stan Drayton and there is talk the program may be terminated or go down to a lower tier competition level .  Now directionless Temple goes to the gridiron with Everett Withers  as  coach. Thats not a good omen going against a . UTSA side that has finally found its footing after smashing Texas State last time out and that has scored 175 points total in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. It's hard to see how this  Temple football team will be focused here as  many of the top  players are looking for new homes at other schools.  UTSA in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities with the average margin of victory coming in at +21.6 .

Play on UTSA to cover

After a very tough  game against the Ravens last time out in a 18-16  win the Steelers are now in a emotional and physical letdown spot vs a Cleveland team that recently just upset the Ravens despite of being looked at unfavorably. This is a bad spot for the Steelers, and taking the points here in what should be a grinding divisional  game the points are the way to play this tilt. Favorites - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are just 45-16 ATS dating back to 1983 season for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -0.03 which easily qualifies on this spread offering. Cleveland in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Take the points with the Browns 

Ga. Tech is off a huge upset vs previously undefeated Miami Fl, and Im betting will now be in a letdown spot vs North Carolina State here tonight. It must be noted that the Rambling Wreck  are  0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a victory  over the Hurricanes. With Georgia up next, this could easily be a game that has them in a down mode and look ahead sandwich situation. I know N.Carolina State may not entice bettors but  Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one interception in his last three starts and looks to be up-trending .  Considering Gtech is  allowing 5.9 yards per play in ACC games they are far from invincible and vulnerable dogs here. With NC State playing with rest ,its important to note that they are  11-1 SUATS with rest , going against  teams with records of  .600 or less .

Play on NC State to cover

The Bulls have averaged 34 PPG in their six MAC contests so far. and going against a E.Michigan side that has allowed weaker sides like Kent State to score 33 points on them , then the Buffalos look very much like a side that can outscore Eastern Mich. CFB home side, like E.Michigan home team - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) are 14-41 ATS since 2020.Chris Creighton in home games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game is 2-13 ATS L/15.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Ohio is tied with Miami and Bowling Green in first place in  the conference standings and will be motivated to grab a victory here this Wednesday night.  Ohio on the money line when the money line is +135 to -155 is 9-1 L/10 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.1. Toledo is still a good team, but they have struggled to score this season, but have made up for defensively. Ohio meanwhile is also solid defensively but their offense is explosive averaging 41 ppg in their L/3 and Im betting they outscore the Rockets here tonight , but importantly stay close enough for the cover.

Play on Ohio to cover

Northern Illinois  has already clinched a decent Bowl game, and maybe more interested in staying healthy here than crunching away in a gridiron battle. The Huskies do not have alot to play for making them fade material against a Miami (0) side in a 3 way tie atop the MAC.Miami has geen explosive on  offense in conference action recording  6.9 yards per play, while NIU only has 5.2 ypp which has been buoyed by recent high output yardage vs lower standardized defenses in  Akron and Western Michigan. Im betting on Miami covering here in this spot play action. 

Play on Miami O

Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, will feature alot of points going on the board. 

The Broncos allow way to many  explosive plays on the ground. . CMU recent struggles Im betting get sorted out here in a big way. They up 34 points  on the board against a decent Eastern Michigan defense two weeks ago, and I now expect them to have big output here . Meanwhile,Western Michigan outgained Northern Illinois at home last week but despite of losing by a 42-28 count, and Im betting on even bigger output here.  Their quarter back Wolff  has been efficient this season  recording  19 passing touchdowns compared to five picks while completing 70% of his passes. (Two of those interceptions came last week)

Western Michigan games after playing their last game on the road are 11-1 L/12 OVER with a combined average of 66.1 ppg scored.Western Michigan games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play over

Im betting this is to many points here tonight to lay with the Texans and value now is now residing with the Cowboys.) Home underdogs on MNF are  15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) dating to September 2021. 

 Laying 7 points or MNF,  favorites of 7 points or more has been a losing venture as is evident by a 19-38-2 ATS record  dating back 12 seasons.  I know  Dallas’ has looked lifeless of late, but it must be noted that  NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are on a  28-15-2 ATS run in their last 45 games versus non-conference opposition Also NFL teams with the better record than their opponents like Houston are just 24-43-2 ATS  in the last 69 MNF games. 

Look for this instate rivalry to bring out the best on both teams , for this be alot closer than the linesmakers expect.

Mike McCarthy in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points is 8-1 ATS.

The Cowboys have won four of their six meetings with the Texans, including a 27-23 home win in the most recent matchup on Dec. 11, 2022.

Play on the Cowboys 

 Dallas starting QB Cooper Rush  was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week and Im betting he struggles again vs top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), including  the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the NFL. On the flipside, the Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and QB  C.J. Stroud looks like hes mired in a sophomore jinx. 

 that said, Im expecting the Texans to hit the gorund running in this tilt behind Joe Mixen, vs a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078) and been stepped over consistently vs opposing ground attacks. The combination of Dallas inability to score with consistency and the Texans offensive struggles and highly probable ground concentrated game plan Im betting we see large swaths of this game with very little points scored which gives credence to under selection cashing. 

key teams numbers: The Texans have allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed 13.0 PPG in the red zone this season -- 9th-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Home underdogs on MNF  dating to September 2021 (23 game sample size) have seen the  Under click in at  18-4-1  with a combined average of 37.3 PPG scored .

Play under

The Chargers own the No.1 defense in the NFL and a average offense. The Bengals can put points up on the board in bunches, but they could be fatigued here on a short week of rest and also start slowly after taking part in a 35-34 slugfest that they lost in heart breaking fashion.  

Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 so far during this NFL campaign. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

NFL road teams after playing  a Thursday road game  like the (Bengals) have gone under in 42 of 54 games  since 2016. 

Play under

Mahomes isn't having the typical Mahomes-like season this year thanks to what looks like a lack of motivation, yet the Chiefs are undefeated through Week 10 . this matchup vs the Bills should motivate the super star QB and Im betitng he will be the difference maker in key points during this battle vs Buffalo. Also Buffalos QB Allen will have his running abilities curtailed by a top tier rush D. 

KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog.Kansas City in away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season are on a 6-0 ATS run dating back to last season.Kansas City on the money line as a road underdog are a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities.

SF 49ers are on 13-1 Over the total run as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points and their QB Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total run vs. divisional opponents. Add to that HC Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since the 2017 campaign. 

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks like Bo Nix have delivered the goods in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS for a 73% conversion rate.

Atlanta in away or neutral games on the money line in the second half of the season are 1-8 L/9 overall. Atlanta in away or neutral games on the money line vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season are 0-7 L/7 opportunities.

Underdogs like Atlanta vs. the money line - after 1 or more consecutive losses, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 10-47 since the 2015 season losing by more than TD on average.

Play on Denver to cover. 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS L/12 as a home dog. Baltimore has been out-gained in two of its previous three games, allowing season-high yards in each tilt and just don't seem to  be viable road dogs vs this kind of rival. Historically the underdog is 18-2-3 ATS. when catching 3+ points in the Harbaugh vs. Tomlin rivalry.

Play on the Steelers 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only Steelers loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those games 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Rinse and repeat.  NFL Road teams like the Ravens against the total - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game are 22-4 UNDER since 2020 with a combined average of 43.1 ppg scored.

Play under

NY Jets QB  Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014.

Miami was without Tagovailoa for four games, which changed the entire make up of its offense.  The QB now looks to be back in form  as was evident in the Dolphins’ win over the Rams last week. I know the 2-7 Raiders are off a bye week, but the on filed product remains the same which gives credence to a Fins win and cover today. 

LV Raiders QB Gardner Minshew is on negative  0-7 SU and ATS run  as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points. Dolphins QB  Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of  4.5 PPG or less  since the  2022 campaign. 

The Dolphins have won three of their last four meetings with the Raiders and 11 of their last 14.

Play on Fins to cover 

NFL teams  like Motown coming off a tilt  in that saw them  turned the ball over five times or more have continued to struggle , going just  15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS  when favored in the next game  dating back 12 seasons. Note:  Dan Campbell after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread has done well but the average ppg diff clicks in at only +3.5 ppg. From my projected standpoint this is just to many points to give a Jacksonville side that has shown flashes of brilliance this season.

NFL Underdogs or pick - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 40-14 ATS since the 1983 season.

Play on Jaguars to cover

The Saints have won their last seven pre-bye week home games. NFL team vs the money line - after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 4-20 dating back to the 2020 season. Kevin Stefanski versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season are 0-7 ATS L/7 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.3.Cleveland is 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games.

As a big favorite on the road, McVay has guided his teams very well.  As a favorite of six or more points on the road he is 13-0 SU , including 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than four points. Im betting he gets the win here again and more importantly the cover. 

These two teams have gone  6-0  over in all six   meetings in Chapel Hill since 2003, and the L/4 games have seen North Carolina put 55, 59, 50, 49 on the board, and according to my projections against a lower tier D, another huge output is projected with Wake Forests capable offense doing damage against a Swiss cheese Tar Heels D that has allowed 35 ppg at home this season. N.Carolina has averaged 36..7 ppg in their L/3 overall.

Play over

This according to my projections is to big a line for two teams that look fairly evenly matched The last time the Deacs played an in-state rival, they earned a 34-30 win at N.C. State and they offer value here vs a North Carolina side that is 5-0 ATS. Mack Brown after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and are 7-24 ATS L/31 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +5 , and Dave Clawson in away or neutral games on the money line off a home loss has won 8 of his L/14 overall SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.

Play on Wake Forest to cover

Backup QB expected in for USC. Nebraska D, is the real deal, and that was evident vs Ohio state recently. To many points under these circumstances.  

Play on Nebraska to cover

LSU shit the bed last week in an ugly performance vs Alabama in a DD home loss. Their offense struggled, and Im now betting they come out like gang busters as they look for redemption. With that said Im betting LSU will be very aggressive from a offensive perspective in this tilt vs a Florida side that has allowed an average of  34.2 ppg in their L/3 overall and 31.2 ppg vs SEC opposition this season.. After being smashed by Texas last week in a 49-17 loss you can bet the Gators will also be primed to bounce back. Billy Napier games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 64.5 ppg scored with his team averaging 32.4 ppg.

LSU HC Brian Kelly games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses have gone over 8 of the L/9 times with a combined average of 76.5 ppg scored. with LSU putting an average of 48 plus ppg on the board during that span.

Play over

This line opened at 48, which is a key number. But Im betting the number we get here is still very viable as my projections estimate a score in lower 40s. Im expecting an old fashioned grinding affair with the combined score staying on the low side of the number.  These teams average   95th in plays per game between overall between them.  Bret Bielema games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 14-3 to the under with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 9-1 UNDER L/10 with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better are 7-0 UNDER since the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Play under

Colorado has come a long way and are playing some very good football entering this game. Now the linesmkaers have gotten ahead of themselves in my humble opinion against a hard nosed Utah team that must not be disrespected. Utah is 24-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points under Kyle Whittingham, including 18-2 ATS vs opposition that allow 17 or more PPG.Series has seen Colorado go 2-11 SU in this series,  with the 2 wins coming by a combined 8 points. Utah has covered their L/4 visits Folsom Stadium.

Play on Utah to cover

The Mean Green have lost 3 straight games thanks to a D that is getting spanked for 422 yards per game. Things dont look to get much better here vs a  Roadrunners side that  is 3-0 SU in the last three and 9-2-1 ATS at home in this series. It must also be noted that the home team in this series has recorded a  9-1-1 mark in this h2h series dating back 10 seasons.  Im betting  UTSA  QB Owen McCown,  who has recorded a  20:4 TD/ INT ratio to be the difference maker here this week .CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after scoring 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 since the 1992 season.UTSA in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Play on UTSA to cover

The Commanders have proved they can score this season behind duel threat  QB Daniels , but their D, remains their Achilles heal , as they their  EPA per play allowed registers at  (0.050), and their Dropback EPA per play (0.100). With that said, a up-trending Philadelphia offense that has seen their QB Jalen Hurts put 9 touchdowns on the board in his L/6 games, and has registered a 115 passer rating over that span and has only thrown one interception Im betting has a big night. The ability of Hurts to shred the Commanders secondary will open up the field for RB Barkley who Im betting runs rough shot here tonight. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s here today.  Philadelphia home games in the second half of the season dating back to least season have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 59.6 ppg scored.Philadelphia home games after 3 or more consecutive wins have gone over 7 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 55.2 ppg scored. Philadelphia home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.4 ppg scored. Washington games in road games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 57.2 ppg.Washington away or neutral games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Kent State according to my projections will not eclipse DDs here today . The Flashes were shutout last week, thanks to an abysmal performance from QB Ruel Tomlinson who got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks . He is expected to start again tonight vs Miami O and projects to struggle again. The Flash have been shutout 3 times this season, and scored 6 or less points four times. UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 in this  series. Miami O HC Chuck Martin games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 310 yards/game is 7-0 UNDER as coach of Redhawks with a combined average of 27.2 ppg scored.Miami (OH) games when playing against a team with a losing record are 7-0 UNDER L/7 with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

Play under

 Looking at Central Michigan defense had me looking at reasons to bet this game over the offered total  of around 51-52 points.  The chips has allowed over six yards per play in conference games to this point  and the my projections estimate the  Rockets are going to able to move the chains and produce adequate offensive production that will help us get over this number. The Chippewas defense allows 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosiveness. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed which is obviously a crap ranking. On D, the Chips  rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.  The Rockets Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads a consistent offense that averages 29 points per game. . Toledo also rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate. I know Toledo has done decently from a defensive perspective, but the CMU dual-threat QB duo and above average  running game that ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry should help bolster their offense production and see the combined score  get us over the number. Toledo has gone over in all 4 home games this season, while Central Michigan 3 of 4 road games and 4 of 5 MAC confrontations.  Central Michigan away or neutral games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored. HC Jim McElwain games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) have gone over 10 of 12 games have gone over 59.9 ppg.

Play on OVER

These teams have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs with the L/4 meetings resulting in an average combined score of 32 ppg. Currently Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring and here on the road Im betting will once again struggle to points on the board. As for the Rams they rank 18th in the NFL in scoring and that inconsistency according to my matchup projections will continue this Monday night. I know the Fins have looked better offensively in their L/2 games after not scoring more than 15 points in 5 straight trips to the gridiron, but they will have probelms scoring in this road venue. Just like Miami has increased their offensive output in their L/2 so has the Rams D also picked up its stopping efficiency ranking  third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and  have very strong stopping the run. NFL Road teams against the total - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 25-5 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 39-10 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 43.2 ppg.

Miami games off a loss against a division rival have gone under 6 straight times with a combined average of 35 ppg scored.

LA Rams games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season are 8-1 under L/9 with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

Play under

The Lions explosive offense prepares to take off this Sunday night against a inconsistent Texas defense. The Lions are rolling and looking dominant,. Detroit after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 times this has happened with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +20.

Detroit in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 are going 11-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.5.

Play on the Lions to cover

Dallas now might have a chance for a bounce back after Dak Prescott went down with an injury. Back up QB  Cooper Rush is 5-1 SUATS career  as a starter for the Cowboys , including 4-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or less points. I know the Eagles are in a groove right now, but Im betting on a huge effort here from the home side. NFL Road teams - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 5-25 ATS since the 2015 season.

Philadelphia in away or neutral games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 0-7 L/7 opportunities.Philadelphia vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season are 0-6 ATS L/6 .

Play on the Cowboys to cover

Steelers QB Russell Wilson brings a 111.9 QB Rating into this tilt vs the Commanders .  In two starts he has 3 TD passes and no interceptions. On the flip-side the Steelers D, has been hard to play against and offer up a physical matchup for the Commanders and a nightmare for their young stud QB Daniels.. Note:  Wilson  as a dog against opponents coming off back-to-back victories in  his NFL career,  is 11-0-1 ATS as a dog of four or fewer points. Washington in home games on the money line vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 1-6 L/7 dating back to last season.Mike Tomlin on the money line after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. is 31-7 as HC of the Steelers. NFL team like Pitt vs the money line - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 97-39 dating back to the 1983 season. I like the Steelers here getting points but would not be surprised if they sprung the SU underdog win.

Take the points with the Steelers

Im betting the red hot  Bills  who are on a 4 game win streak could have some issues here today thanks to a swiss cheese run D that allows 4.8 ypr which does not matchup well vs a Indy ground attack that averages 4.6 ypr. With KC up next for the Bills could easily be caught looking ahead and vulnerable to being upset.Indianapolis against conference opponents are 6-0 ATS L/6. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8 visiting AFC teams.

Play on Colts to cover

KC keeps finding ways to win,  and really have not blown anyone out this season.  Im sure the Chiefs  are tiring a bit after alot close calls. Its also interesting to note that  Andy Reid has won just 43 of his last 98 games by seven or more points when he is a chalk of seven points or more, giving credence to a letdown performance here vs a Broncos side that has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series. 

Play on the Broncos to cover

The last 8 meetings between these two teams have seen a combined average of 50 ppg scored. My projections once again estimate a combined score in this range and  gives credence to an over wager cashing for us today. NFC South same- division tilts  like this have  gone  7-0 OVER so far this season and that trend should continue today. The combined average of the above mentioned games were 57.8 ppg. New Orleans is in complete free fall and will now in desperation mode become more liberal in the attack schemes and just open up . It must be noted NFL teams on Sunday's  off 4 or more consecutive  SU and ATS losses have gone over 6 straight times. 

Play on the OVER 

The holy war between Utah and BYU features long time instate rivals .The  intensity could not be higher, as BYU enters this game undefeated, and could be feeling the pressure.  The Utes are not doing as well as early season prognosticators assumed they would, but this would a perfect redemption opportunity . It must be noted that Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in this series and 21-2  ATS as a underdog when coming off a SUATS loss, including 5-0 ATS against  undefeated sides like BYU. 

Play on Utah to cover

After having their undefeated season come to  an abrupt end last time out at SMU the Panthers could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a decent Virginia side this Saturday.

The Cavaliers are 16-2 ATS as conference pups of 6 or more points, including 8-0 ATS when out for  revenge. Virginia in away or neutral games after the first month of the season are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities. Virginia when playing against a team with a winning record are a perfect 9-0 ATS L/10 tries.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game, after a loss by 21 or more points are 9-35 ATS dating back to the 1992 season.

Play on Virginia to cover

 LSU owns  one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year and Im betting  they will give their QB Garrett Nussmeier  all the protection he needs to go airborne consistently today which to me is a not brainer considering the Tigers are one of SECs worst rush offenses at 3.34 ypr. On the flip-side Alabama will also have to unload in back for fashion behind  QB Jalen Milroe who has the ability to  torch LSU with enough explosive plays to put a boatlaod full of point on the board. 

Alabama games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-0 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 62 ppg scored.

LSU games against conference opponents have gone over 10 of the L/12 overall with a combined average of 69.7 ppg scored. LSU games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 11-2 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. LSU games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. are 8-0 OVER L/8 opportunities with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

North Texas played Memphis and Tulane tough and put 81 points up on the board in those games and must not be underestimated here vs undefeated  Army. The Cadets have a look ahead to Notre Dame next week, and could easily get side railed here today by a under rated and explosive side.

Play on North Texas to cover

Duke has failed to cover 16 of their L/17 in conference games when coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more which was the case vs Miami Fl last time out by a 53-31 score. This Blue Devils group is disheartened for sure as they played the Canes tough before falling apart late in this tilt giving up multiple scores,. Bouncing back up of the turf will be hard  on the road vs a under rated NC State football program that if they win will be Bowl eligible. Duke is also 0-10 SUATS after allowing 40-plus points in their previous game.

Play on NC State to cover

.Both teams are evenly matched offensively with their points per game this year (30.5 for Iowa State, 30 for Kansas).  Yes, Iowa State is far superior defensively but Kansas off a week of rest will have the legs to slow this side down and on offense take advantage of sub par Iowa State rush D, that ranks 94th in the nation. Kansas despite of a losing record have been competitive this season, with five of the six losses coming  by just one-score .  With Iowa State coming off their first loss of the season they could easily be in a dangerous letdown spot vs  KU head coach Lance Liepold who is a solid 32-13-1 ATS as a host , including 15-2-1 ATS versus .700 or better opp. 

Play on Kansas to cover

Georgia Tech has covered five of the last six meetings in this series and defeated Miami Fl last season 23-20 as 19 point underdogs. I know this explosive Miami side has revenge on board, but it must be noted that they are just 2-6 ATS as conference  road favs of 14 points or less. Georgia Tech vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 6-0 ATS L/6 opportunities  thanks to a vaunted running game that slows the game down.Georgia Tech vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game are 11-2 ATS since the 2022 season.Mario Cristobal on the money line versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play has lost 7 of his L/8 games.Tech had the first weekend of November off after losing to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech biut will now be rejuvenated and ready to continue this ats domination of this series. Also  since HC  Brent Key took over the  Tech football program as interim coach ahead of the fifth game of the 2022 season, the Jackets are 14-2 when rushing for 180 yards in a game are a perfect  5-0 this season when hitting that benchmark and according to my projections they hit that mark here today. 

Play on GTech to cover

Cal is traveling a distance for this game against Wake but they are on a bye week so they should be plenty rested and ready to perform. This a good Bears program, and the ask price might seem high, but after watching them play  both Miami and Pitt very tough, and look capable of beating both sides, Im confident laying a TD vs a side that they have outstated this season is a viable wager.  .Wake Forest Dave Clawson as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is 0-7 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7.Justin Wilcox versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play is 14-4 ATS with he average ppg diff clicking in at +8.

Play on California to cover

The last time these teams faced each other a high scoring shootout took place, but now on a short week of rest and  each D feeling more comfortable  with facing  each sides offensive schemes Im betting a contrarian bet that favors the under. I know both defenses have looked porous at times but the Bengals for example have played much better as this season has progressed as was evident last week when they held  the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play .On the flips side, QB Burrows of the Bengals, will be without key target Tee Higgins this week.Since he faced the Ravens back in week 5 Burrows has only surpassed the 250 ypg plateau once, without Higgins who played that game against the Ravens. Im on the other side, of this very public line movement, and recommend an under wager. 

NF Home favs with a line of 52 or more points have gone under 15 of the L/17 games  last 4 years! Longer term there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 plus points totals offerings,  with the Under converting at a 73% rate going  22-8  UNDER .

Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014 in TNF prime time affairs. Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 lr more yards/play have seen a combined average of 46.3 ppg scored spanning a 6 game sample size dating back to last season. \

Play under

n Baltimore games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 8-1 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 29 ppg scored. John Harbaugh home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 19 of 25 times with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (Baltimore)- after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 50-20 UNDER wince 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

 Overall  Coastal Carolinas D,  has been atrocious, and recently they allowed 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 ppg while giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  Chanticleers pass defense is not exhibiting much stopping power and  has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%  and are allowing more than six yards per play . Thats something  App States  QB Joey Aguilar can take advantage of.He recorded  a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and gained more than 3,700 yards. This season,  thanks to his excessive  aggressiveness has  recording 18 TDS and 10 interceptions which are not as prolific as last years action  ,but today he should do fine.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers  defense has also been bad, as is evident by  giving up  6.9 yards per play.  App State have victories in their L/2 tilts  vs Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards  Coastal Carolina stake no prisoners  big-play offense have recorded 26 plays of 30+ yards  and 14 plays of 40+ yards ranked top 15 in all of College Football and will have a open alley to put a boatload full of points on the board. Im betting we have a real shoot out here and a combined score that gets eclipsed. Coastal Carolina home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

OVER

Stormy conditions with high winds and steady rain is expected for this Tuesday night MAC game. Thanks to Central Michigans  proficiency running the ball  ranking 30th in the nation in yards per carry with 5.02 ,  is ultimately important in a nasty weather  game like this .  Meanwhile, Bowling Greens inconsistent, run defense will have issues in this one, giving credence to a Central Michigan cover. 

Central Michigan to cover

The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Since trading offensive lineman Cam Robinson,  the offensive line is a weak link and will not give QB Lawrence the protection he needs vs a  formidable Eagles  defense and a solid defensive line. The Eagles are riding their first three-game win streak since last season and will be hard to play against here in this enviorment. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 3-23 ATS dating back to the 2020 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 ppg. Nick Sirianni as a home favorite of 7 points or less. is 10-2 ATS L/12 opportunities.

Play on Philadelphia

Ravens own the best offense in all of football  averaging 452 ypg and  have gone over in  7 of 8 tilts averaging a combined 56.4 pp), and the worst D in the entire NFL at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting to juice up their offense behind QB Bo Nix and have registered an average of 27.8 ppg in offense over their L/4 games with all of them eclipsing the total. Everything points to this totals offering being eclipsed. 

Play over

No doubt that Baltimore is an explosive offensive side, but man is their defense suspect currently ranking  dead last in the  NFL in overall pass defense at 291.4 YPG, yards per pass   and also  No. 25  overall in team defense at 361.3 yards per game. The Ravens against top tier teams almost always come to play, but this visitor may be viewed in a lesser way, and we could easily see a flat performance from a side that has been running and gunning non stop all season long. A bit of a reversal here offensively is not out of the question, giving credence to a cover by the Broncos.The Ravens are just 1-7 ATS as a non-division home favorite of seven or more points.  Denver versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 dating back to last season. Broncos are also 7-1 ATS L/8 as dog of 7 points or more. Also Sean Payton as a dog of more than three points, is 24-8-1 ATS in his career. 

Play on the Broncos to cover

Pittsburgh despite of consecutive wins were out gained in both those games, and according to my power rankings are being over rated vs a SMU side that has put an average of 45 ppg on the scoreboard  at home this season. It must be noted that the Panthers have failed to cover 6 straight times in conference road games as dogs. SMU is 9-1 ATS record at home against better  than .600 conference opp.  Im betting SMUs top-20 ranking and 7-1 record  will further be buoyed by its  ability to control the ground game on offense and defense. They rank No. 1 in the ACC in both rushing offense (No. 23 in FBS) and rushing defense (No. 5 in FBS). CFB home team - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 65-28 ATS dating back to the 2020 season for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

  SMU.

Despite of being 4-4 on the season Washington has won the stats battles in all 8 games they have played, and deserve respect here as home dogs to a side like USC that is starting to go downhill defensively as is evident by allowing an average  451 ypg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Add to that USC HC Rileys 8-20 ATS mark as a road favorite and  the fact  he has failed to cover 10 of L/11 vs sides like Washington off consecutive SU defeats and you have a viable spread in-balance. Lincoln Riley  away versus conference opp coming off consecutive losses, is a lowly 0-7 ATS against football programs that won seven or more games during the regular season the previous year like the Huskies. USC as a road favorite are 0-6 ATS L/6.

Play on Washington to cover

The Aggies  are being over rated here as they have been outyarded in each of their last two wins  and three of their last four games overall. Meanwhile, the South Carolina Gamecocks,, are 4-1 ATS L/5 when playing after a week of rest and also off a SU victory, which is the case here today. The well rested Gamecocks get my support here in this spot play. I know South Carolina (4-3, 2-3) isn't ranked but lost to Alabama and LSU by a combined five points and deserve respect at home.Texas A&M on the road are  0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS  L/8 against above .500 opp. 

Play on South Carolina to cover

Louisville brings in a solid attack, but their D, has been less than efficient which is not a good omen in this death valley confrontation this Saturday night. Since their opening season loss to Georgia this very strong Tigers side have been a difficult team to play against and nothing will change here tonight. Im betting the Tigers D, will slow down Cardinals offense and that their own offense will unload in a big way in what will be a DD victory for Clemson. 

Clemson’s record in November under Swinney: Last nine years in November: 30 wins, 4 losses.Clemson’s history includes 18 seasons with a perfect 4-0 record in November. Dabo Swinney as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points is 12 -3 ATS. with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.7.

Clemson has won all eight ACC games versus Louisville and is on a 6-0 ATS run.

CFB road team - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games are 12-36 ATS dating back to the 2020 season.

Play on Clemson to cover

Both these teams have not played well of late, but Central Florida stands out as consistently being over rated, as they have now lost 3 straight home games , and dont really deserve this much line respect, especially since they cant decide who will even start at QB . HC Gus Malzahns days are numbered here, and even if he pulls of a victory today Im betting it will not come easily.  Im also betting Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan will make mucho positive plays against a shorthanded UCF secondary getting us the cover. 

UCF after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored have  failed to cover 8 of their L/9.

UCF has lost its last 10 games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

Play on Arizona to cover

 The undefeated Cyclones, could easily be caught looking ahead to a  revenge situation with Kansas next week, making them vulnerable as double digit home favorites vs Texas Tech side that has covered 4 of their L/6 vs undefeated conf opp. 

TEXAS TECH is on an eight-game ATS winning streak in conference play when coming off a road loss and have covered 11 of their L/12 under these circumstances. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

UNDER the total has converted in 11 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Im betting on another grinding affair that stays under this totals offering. 

Silverfield, who has been the Tigers' head coach since late 2019, has never won a game in an indoor stadium and it will not get much easier here today according to my projections for this Alamodome game.  The Tigers last two wins have come down to the wire. Memphis beat North Texas by eight points and needed an interception the game's final play to come out on top and , then beat a average at best  Charlotte sides  thanks to a last-minute touchdown drive.

•MEMPHIS is on a 4-18 ATS run in conference games when coming off an outright win which was the case last time out.  Meanwhile, Texas-San Antonio has won 10 of its last 11 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss which was the case last time out in a hurtful 46-45 loss after holding DD deficit a half time. Look for this group to play all out here this week as they seek redemption.

Play on UTSA to cover

USF has been decent in games vs Alabama, Miami and Memphis and this trip to FAU should be a walk in the park despite of not having their starting QB under center. (Byrun Brown). Meanwhile, FAU has been extremely inconsistent and deserve to be home dogs tonight. Note: The Owls staring QB Cam Fancher is fighting turf toe of late, and is less than 100%. The Bulls are off rest and are 15-3 SU L/18 on road when they are favs . The Bulls are also 7-1 ATS off a bye.

CFB  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 27-7 ATS since 1992.

Play on USF

Its got be Halloween, trick or treat, the Big Apple Jets are favs vs the better QB, better D and coach. Give me the points in this situation , as the  NY Jets franchise is a ugly 2-15 SU /4-13 ATS in the last 17 primetime games. Note:: NY Jets on the money line off an upset loss as a favorite are 0-6 L/6 opportunities.

NFL team vs the money line like the Jets - after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 3-20 since 2020.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line Houston - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 25-4 since the 2015 season.

Play on the Texans to cover

There is definitely something internally   wrong with this Liberty team that was so highly rated at the beginning of this season. The loss against Kennesaw State was really unfathomable last week, and another lifeless effort is not out of the question against a upstart Jacksonville State football program currently clicking on all cylinders.  CFB Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have recorded a  40-66 SU and 36-66-4 ATS in their next game since 2012. Home favorites - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 19-50 ATS dating back to the 1992 season for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville state to cover

Louisiana is being under rated here at Texas State . The Cajuns  only defeat during this campaign  was against an explosive Tulane  side  by a 41-33 count that actually saw  Lafayette outgain the Green Wave by just under 60 yards. Im betting this Louisiana top-20 offense in yards per play,to damage here today and to possibly even pull off the upset.G.J. Kinne after having won 2 out of their last 3 games is 0-5 ATS L/5 overall.

Play on Louisiana to cover

NY Giants QB Daniel Jones  has looked very inconsistent this season, but what he has been consistent with is road game top efforts , as he has defeated the Browns and Seahawks as a visitor  this season, and he played a strong game at miracle wonders the  Washington Commanders. After coming off  a nasty 28-3 loss to Philly, Im betting on a big bounce back performance form the Gmen. Note:NY Giants off a loss against a division rival are 8-1 ATS L/9 opportunities. Also NY Giants after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 9-1 ATS L/10 tries. From a league wide perspective  NFL sides that lost,  and scored 7 points or less, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have bounced back well in the underdog role , going a bankroll expanding 35-17 ATS  dating back to the 2013 season for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Also veteran quarterbacks like Pitts Russell Wilson have struggled in  MNF action with their new teams going just  9-18-1 ATS .  NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS since the 2020 season. Also Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-7 ATS dating back to the 1983 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.3.

Play on the Giants to cover

Dak Prescott and company have had problems, moving the ball and their problems will continue today according to my projections against this SF D. Meanwhile, Im betting on the Cowboys playing a conservative game as mistakes can not be tolerated in a almost certain must win situation for the Boyz. 

NFL team against the total  (49ers)- off a home loss by 10 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-4 UNDER since the 2020 season for a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.

Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game have gone under in 13 of L/14 with a combined average of 39 ppg.

Play on the UNDER

 Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) is listed as questionable and may be a game-time decision vs. the Bears., but even so the Commanders should not be this big a dog compared to the overall quality of football they have played this season. I know the Bears thanks to some top tier play are getting some love here , but its over done according to my projections. It must also be noted that the Bears are well rested off a bye week but they have a ugly history after rest as Chicago is  just 1-9 SU  in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by  an average 12.8 PPG in the nine defeats. 

Play on Commanders to cover

 Buffalo according to my projections will score 30 plus points here today according to the line offerings from the various books( lines-makers). Seattle offense exploded last week putting 34 points on Atlanta on the road.  The Seahawks  have not scored less than 20 points in a single game this season, and project to hit into the low 20s here.  both QBs have been explosive this season, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat of past incarnations of this series here today. All 10 games in the series since 1995 went Over the total. 

Buffalo has gone over in 10 of the L/11 vs NFC West. 

Play over

These two teams recently do not exhibit alot of offensive qualities , but Im betting on a break out here this week to some extent that helps us eclipse this total. The last six games of the series have gone Over the total with a combined average of 60.8 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 over with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Miami has a upgraded offense, while Arizona is coming off a emotional last second win and on a short week of rest after playing Monday night  . NFL Underdogs vs. the money line - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games are 8-39 since the 2015 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 whcih easily qualifies on this ATS offering . Advantage Miami

 The Texans  host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South showdown this Sunday and a game that projects to be a close game , which gives us value with taking the points.  Indianapolis against conference opponents.is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5. Colts are 6-1 ATS L/8 as a conference of dog of 4 or more points.

Houston has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as division home chalk. DeMeco Ryans after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games is 0-5 ATS as coach of Texans.

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1-1 ATS at Houston since 2013.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

I know the Bengals have not performed optimally especially from a defensive perspective but Cincinnati for what ever reason has had this Eagles franchises number for a long time now. QB Joe Burrows is a game changer and Im betting his ability to thread the needle will be the difference  maker today .  

Cincinnati is 11-2 SU when coming off a road victory which was the case last time out. The Bengals have won those games by an average of 6.7 points per game.

Philadelphia in away or neutral games after playing their last game on the road are 0-6 since last season. Philadelphia versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 or more rushing yards/game are 0-6 ATS dating back last seson.

CINCINNATI is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Philadelphia since 1994 and 11-0 ATS going back farther. 

TENNESSEE has won the last five ATS vs. Detroit

Houston 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. the Colts.

No Deshauan Watson in the lineup may not be a bad thing for the Browns going forward. With RB Nick Chubb in the lineup the Browns Im betting can be competitive by using a  a grinding  ground game and enough out of QB Jamies Winston . In last weeks loss to the Bengals the Browns outyarded their opponent by more than 113 yards and must not be underestimated this week.  I know Baltimore has been red hot, but their run defense has had issues and Chubb should have a strong outing. NFL Road teams vs. the money line - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game, after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game have lost 22 of L/33 SU.

Play on the Browns to cover

Jacksonville is 4-0 SU/ATS off a game on London England. After a big outing last time out, look for Lawrence to cover this number.