FAU’ enters this game on a  16-1 ATS run as a underdog  of less  than 17 points or less  against. .600 opp  coming off a loss like the 0-2 Huskies. UConn is and has been a highly inconsistent  football program of late  as is evident by a  1-7 ATS record as chalk  versus AAC sides. FAU  has been effective defensively, surrendering 20 points per contest (58th-ranked).UConn  defensively ranks  25th-worst in the nation with 31 points allowed per game mark.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in the last six Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 40s ansd no more than 51 points which gives us value with betting the under on this totals offering. Teams like Missouri total - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games have gone under are 90-46 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 50 ppg scored. CFB teams like Vanderbilt where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 69-33 UNDER with the average combined score clicking in at 50.1 ppg.

Play under

The Arkansas Hogs will be primed to revenge their ugly 52-3 home loss to the Tigers in this tilt. It must be noted HC. Pittman is 9-1 ATS when taking six or  less  points. Arkansas is also 7-1 ATS as a road underdog with revenge with HC Sam Pittman at the helm. Motivational edge is huge for the Razorbacks vs a Auburn team that just does not look or feel the part of a contender this season. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

The Green Wave are a top tier team, that  are getting very little respect  from the market thanks to losing 2 of their first three games  despite outgaining their  opponents by  an average of 98 yards per game. Tulane lost to Oklahoma despite of staying close right until the 4th quarter and took another defeat vs Kansas State .  New QB  Mensah  is proving hes a formidable leader under center and is backed by a solid running game as   running back in Makhi Hughes continues to smash through defenses as evident against Kstate where he accumulated 128 yards. 

Tulane is  19-4 SU  as a road favorite  and  must not be under estimated in their ability to cash another ticket oday vs Louisiana.   The Ragin’ Cajuns 2-0 have been off for a week and this will be their first true test of the season, after facing Kennesaw State and Grambling. Im betting the step up in class wont go well. 

Play on Tulane 

Washington State is in a letdown spot here vs San Jose State this Friday night after their big win against instate rivals Washington last week. SJSU took out Air Force on the road,  last time out, and wont be easily intimidated here and are now 3-0 overall. Im not sold on the Cougars  D, after watching Texas Tech march up and down the filed against a couple of weeks ago, and San Jose State behind a solid offense lead by a viable QB in Emmett Brown and a  prime time  playmaker \ Nick Nash are a side that can surprise in this spot play. Note: Dating back to last season San Jose State is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Washington State is 1-5/SU/0-6 ATS L/6 after playing Washington State. 

Play on San Jose State to cover

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

South Alabama lost a pair of  defensive masterminds on the coaching staff from last season, and their winningest QB is now gone, as is a 1000 yard rusher and their top reciever. This reorganized Jaguars program has looked problematic on D so far this season, allowing North Texas  415 yards and three touchdowns and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel at the wheel vs  Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro allowing him a  71% pass completion rate. Yes, the  the Jaguars’ put  87 points on the board vs a  swiss cheese Northwestern State D  were the most in a single game in school history and now Im betting on immediate big time  regression after that crazy non stop output. 

Meanwhile, . App State finished last season by  winning five of its last six to make the conference title game and have now won 17 of their L/20 here in Boone and deserve respect a favs in this venue. The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with almost 70% of group coming back from the 2023 squad including  star quarterback Joey Aguilar. I know they got clobbered by Clemson in their oponer and had to battle back form a 16 point deficit in a come  back won  against E.Carolina last time out. But after those two sub par efforts should now be ready for a top tier effort in their conference oponer. 

Im betting on this being a game where Joey Agilar shines vs a D with a below average secondary. I know the App states run game seems a little bit choppy to start the season, but the pass game remains dangerous and will have a slot of success in this spot.

App State has won the L/4 meetings as hosts in this series, and have won the L/3 meetings overall by 31-7, 30-3 and 52-7 counts. 

 Alabama when playing against a team with a winning record.are 0-5 ATs L/5.

Play on App State to cover

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

SF looked up for their return to the field in their opener last week, against the NY Jets and came out with a DD victory. However, Im now expecting them to be in a letdown spot this week, against a under rated Vikings team playing at home. Its a long trip out here to Minny on short rest, and they  are vulnerable. Minnesota has covered the L/6 meetings in this series while the 49ers have failed to cover 10 of their L/15 tilts  vs the  NFC North. Add to this prognosis that the  49ers  Christian McCaffrey is not expected to play and QB  Brock Purdy doesn't completely look in sync and could end up his back vs a blitz crazy Vikings defense, and we have a situation where the dog looks like a very viable bet. 

Play on Vikings to cover

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

Browns were not as bad as the final score of their tilt with Dallas, as their D, only allowed 265 total yards tto the Cowboys and deserve respect here in the underdog role.  Cleveland has won 10 of their L//11 SU  vs  the AFC South and 9-1 SU after hosting an NFC opponent . Also Road teams in Week 2 off a double digit loss in Week 1 are 38-23-1 ATS since 2005. On the flipside, the Jaguars are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games against AFC  opposition and 1-8 ATS as home chalk against winless sides. After blowing a lead vs the Doplhins last time out, im not sure the Jags are in the right state of mind to be favorites. NFL Underdogs or pick - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 20-4 L/9 seasons .

Play on Browns

There was an over reaction in the market thanks to the Panthers beatdown at the hands of the Saints last week. Teams like the Panthers  that lose by 35 or more points and are  underdogs of 4 or more points  the following week are 50-18-2 ATS.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS as a dog against the AFC West opposition. 

Take the points 

Dating back 10 seasons , teams (sides) off a Monday Night road game like the Jets that have a second straight road game  have lost 21 of those L/33 tilts.  The Titans played a strong game last time out leading 17-0 at the half  before finding a way to lose to the Bears last week by a 24-17 count, while the Jets looked completely disorientated in they're ugly loss at San Francisco vs the Niners on Monday night and are  physically wiped coming into this game on short rest , as they're D was  field for almost 39 minutes in that game. The Jets are being very over rated here while the Titans are being under rated.

Play on the Titans to cover

CFB home team like Virginia vs. the money line - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 40-9 L/4 seasons. A FB road team like Maryland vs. the money line - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG), after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game are 5-32 dating back to the 1992 season.

Kentucky looked lifeless last week in a ugly 31-6  loss to South Carolina and Im sure Mark Stoops group is not in a good mood, and contemplating how to redeem themselves. Add to that the  Wildcats have serious revenge on board for a ass whooping they suffered last season on the road in Athens at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs- 51-13 and you have a situation where the Wildcats and Stoops will be primed for a face Saving competitive bounce back. With Georgia it must be noted that in 80 home games under  Stoops, Kentucky has  only seven losses by more than 24 points . Yes, No.1 Georgia is the superior side, but could easily be looking ahead to their bye week and their  tilt with Alabama in a couple of weeks. With that said, Im betting we won’t see everything the Bulldogs can throw at the Wildcats, and leave that for Alabama. It must also be noted that Georgia has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as 14 or more road chalk in SEC play, and have failed to cover 10 of their L/12 before a bye week.  Meanwhile, Kentucky has thrived as a dog of 17 or more points when seeking revenge with HC Mark Stoops at the helm of team  and are ,  5-0 ATS versus opposition coming off a victory. 

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover

UTSA (1-1) were beaten up on vs a under rated Texas State squad last time out, and will be primed to show life this week vs a Texas  (2-0) side in a letdown spot,. The Longhorns after going into the Big House last week and coming out  with a resounding DD victory vs Michigan  that places them high in the national rankings should  now show regression this week making covering this huge line a difficult task. Note: 

Texas HC Steve Sarkisian   in his career when his team is coming off two wins-exact, has failed to cover 10 straight opportunities  when facing above .500 or better opposition . Texas State has covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 or more point underdogs . Aslo UTSA HC Jeff Traylor  when coming off a double-digit loss, is 10-0 ATS  in hia last ten opportunities. HC Jeff Traylor after playing their last game on the road are 16-2 SU.

CFB Road underdogs  UTSA with a line  of 31.5 or more points - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the first month of the season are 28-7 ATS for a 80% conversion rate since 1992.

Play on UTSA to cover

 The Blue Devils routed the Huskies 41-7 a season ago at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. However, this is a better version of Connecticut, and they should do some damage here offensively in the rematch. Unfortunately Im projecting that the Blue Devils will also show off some explosive offensive firewrks in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair. Note: UConn owns a current 13-game road losing streak against power conference (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), the Huskies' average margin of defeat is 28.5 points.  The five losses in Mora's tenure have an average margin of defeat of 39.2 points, including last year's 59-3 loss at Tennessee and a 59-0 loss at Michigan in 2022. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - off a road win, in September games.like Duke have gone 30-9 OVER L/4 seasons with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

LATE STEAM- OVER 

This is a long standing rivalry. between Oregon and Oregon State.  The Ducks have been money in the bank , going 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series played in the Beaver Dam. Im betting on Oregon State behind the nations 5th rank run game, to grind away here today, and do a good job of keeping the Ducks one way passing game from exploding with regularity and as a result  to be competitive vs a side that Im sure they are pumped to play.  CFB home team Oregon State vs. the money line - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 21-4 since 2020.

System applies to: Oregon State.

The Green Wave outgained K-State last week by a  491-396 count, and if it were not for a late fumble recovery by the Wildcats the Green Wave were headed towards what was a prpojected win. Now in bounce back mode Im betting they are being under rated by the linemakers here vs Oklahoma a side that  struggled to get by Houston last week in a low scoring sleepfest . Note: HC Jon Sumrall, wis 24-6 SU and 20-7 ATS in his  college career, including 11-1 ATS away and Im betting they hang tough here again.

Play on Tulane to cover

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

·Arizona’s below average  performance against Northern Arizona has me backing away from them and actually betting against them.  Im also not a big fan of first-year Arizona head coach Brent Brennan. Meanwhile, , I know the Wildcats had to work hard to get by Tulane, but as the  season progresses Im betting that the Green Wave are a much better team then some of the oddsmakers odds suggested , thus giving credence to me backing them home side here tonight. 

In games involving two ranked teams since 2017, the home side  is 170-85 SU and 145-102-8 ATS for a 59% conversion rate for bettors and  when the host side has been ranked above the visitor, those teams have gone 102-18 SU and 75-41-4 ATS for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.Also  better ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS for 71% conversion rate dating back 11 seasons.

 KState is 40-23-2 ATS for a 64% conversion rate  since 2019.

Road underdogs vs. the money line like Arizona State - in conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are just 4-33 dating back to 2015 with the average margin ppg differential clicking in at -14.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on KState to cover
.

I know alot of pundits believe their will be regression offensively for the Jayhawks this season season because, of the absence of former Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who is now calling plays for Penn State. However there is still enough attacking talent on this team behind  QB Jalon Daniels to make like difficult for opposing defenses. On the flipside, UNLV showed their explosiveness on offense vs  Utah Tech last week when they put 70 points on the board and even though their passing game may not be optimal they are capable of burning down the field and moving chains via the run game. Lance Leipold in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses has seen 9 straight overs hit , with a combined average of 80.1 ppg scored. Also HC Lance Leipold in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers have seen a combined average of 82.5 ppg combined scored.

Play over

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

After a  surprising 2-0 start under second-year ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham the Sun Devils take  on a Texas State side that is highly under rated and expected to win their conference .  Last week against Mississippi State they took 30-23 victory but did not look good in the 2nd half getting outscored 20-3 and Im betting they continue to regress into this tilt.   It must also be stated that ASU QB  Sam Leavitt struggled in a big way against Mississippi State. He completed 10-of-20 pass attempts for just 65 yards and Im expecting the Sun Devils will have to lean on their run game again, whihc maybe not ideal on a short turnaround, as exhaustion may rear its ugly head. 

Home team like Texas State vs. the money line - excellent offense from last season - averaged 6.1 or more yards/play, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 30-4 since 1992 for go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. CFB home team like Texas State vs. the money line - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters- first month are 23-3 since 2015 for a 89% conversion rate.

Texas State to cover

 SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy really struggled in the preseason, and Im betting he has issues dialing it up here tonight vs a viable Jets defense that he projects to  have problems against.  New York was ninth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed last season. On the flipside,  Aaron Rodgers should make a solid return to the NFL here as the 49ers defense was 10th in the league in EPA per play allowed last season, and could suffer more regression this season. Rodgers is 25-12-2 ATS in his career against the NFC West, and also  36-24-2 ATS in the underdog roll. 

Super Bowl losing sides like the 49ers are  5-19 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 seasons. 

iThe 49ers have lost 5 of 8 and are just  2-6 ATS hosting AFC opposition  and 0-3 SU/ATS the last  three  Monday night non-division tilts.

SF has failed to cover 17 of their L/26 at home as 7 point fav or less.

Play NY Jets to cover

The Commanders are a short road underdog , and despite of having a rookie QB at the helm of the offense  are a viable bet here in week 1. The Bucs were a play off team last season, but according to my rankings were lucky to get into the post season, and should be faded this season. The linesmakers agree with me and have lowered their win season number to 7.5.  To many negatives with the Bucs making the Commanders our side. Note: Week 1 road pups like the Commanders are 46-29 ATS for a 61% conversion rate with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 dogs like the Commanders that did not make  the playoffs the previous year are 54-39 ATS with a 12% ROI since 2016 campaign. 

Play on the Commanders to cover

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

This line has been beat down since early week action,  and Im  agreeing with the line move and the smart money here in this spot play with Carolina.  Note:Week 1 road underdogs  are a profitable  46-29 ATS for. a 61% conversion rate for their backers  with a 19% ROI since 2016. Week 1 divisional pups  are even better bets going  30-14 ATS for a 68% conversion rate with a 31% ROI since 2016. I know the Panthers are being looked at cellar dwellers, but the Saints may not be that much better this season. NFL Home favorites like the Saints- poor defense from last season - allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 65 -115 ATS for a go against (64%) conversion rate for bettors   (+43.5 unit, ROI of 22.0%) 

Road underdogs in Week one NFL action  that did not  make the playoffs are 57-31-2 ATS for a 65% conversion rate since 2011. Division underdogs in Week one  are 53-26-1 ATS for a 67% conversion rate  since 2010. 

Play on the Panthers to cover

There is just to much hype here with the Bears, and their starting QB Caleb Williams debut . The young man under center is the  19th first overall pick  to start in the NFL and In my opinion  is being over rated at the early juncture of his career. It must be noted that the previous 18 overall first round picks  lost 15 of 18 times  SU and were 5-12-1 ATS for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. With the Titans D, getting upgraded this season with 6 new starters added they could be a force to reckon with and Williams may find the sledding tough. I also expect QB Will Levis to be throwing big punches downfield with alot more accuracy this season as he becomes accustomed to starting in the NFL. This kid can sling it and should be a dangerous weapon against opposing secondaries. 

Play on the Titans to cover

With QB Kyle Murray and star side kicks  Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr.  now healthy and ready to start for the Cards Im betting on them showing improvement this season, vs what I now believe to be a over rated version of the Buffalo Bills who had some key departures on offense in the off season  WRs (  Stefon Diggs , Gabe Davis ) . Also expecting regression from QB Josh Allen, with some key future bets on him. Needless to say Im also betting we have value taking a 7 points in this spot play.

NFL opening week  1 road teams like the Cardinals  that won between 4-6 games in their  previous season   are 52-21-5 ATS fior a  71% conversion rate since 2004  . 

Play on the Cardinals to cover

The Falcons bring in  new head coach in Raheem Morris and a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins . the veteran QB Cousins is coming off a achilles injury , but his experience and a top tier group of offensive players around him make this Atlanta side very dangerous. Also expecting Morris to shore up this D.
Meanwhile on the flipside, the offense of the Steelers almost certainly looks like a dud, withRussell Wilson and Justin Fields under center. I know the Steelers defense keep them in games, but exhaustion from being on the field so much is detrimental to say the least in their ability to hold teams off late in games.  

Play on the Falcons to cover 

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

There is alot of hype around the Texans this season, but it must be noted that they are   1-8 SU in its last nine road openers, including 0-6 in the last six . They may get better as the season progresses but today my projections estimate a possible upset by the under rated home dog Indianapolis  and more importantly a cover. 

Divisional home underdogs  like the Colts are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS  for a 79% conversion rate in Week 1 since 2009 for a 56% ROI. 

Play on the Colts to cover 

The Arizona State Sun Devils took what for me was a surprising  48-7 win vs the Wyoming  Cowboys. Now against Mississippi State this week , Im betting on immediate regression.  Meanwhile, New HC , Jeff Lebby, a former offensive assistant at Oklahoma/Baylor,/ UCF, takes over as the Bulldogs top man and immediately  smashed FCS opponent  Eastern Kentucky, 56-7 in his opener.Last season the Bulldogs took out the  Wildcats in one of its only three losses f in a  31-24. OT victory in Starkville and beat them by DDs  the year before. With that said, Im expecting this game to be alot closer than the linemakers estimates , with the taking the points being the play. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover

Oregon beat Idaho last week a 24-14 count and were just not efficient when it came to putting points on the board .Alot is expected of the Ducks this season, but today Im betting their current frustrations will continue vs Boise State  side that is being under rated.  Last week Boise State took out Georgia Southern,  in convincing fashion . It must be noted that the Broncos own a  3-0 SU ATS series record vs  Oregon  and get a chance to play a side that will be in a look ahead situation as they take on long  time rivals Oregon State next time out. Boise in their 2nd game of season, in the past when on the road are 6-0 ATS as a pick or underdog and 5-0-1 ATS when coming off an away tilt in their previous game which is the case here today.  Boise State  playing in the underdog role as a  DD dog against .750 plus  opposition are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities.

Play on Boise State to cover

 ODU lost a heartbreaker to South Carolina last week losing by a 23-19 count despite of out gaining the Gamecocks. Here today vs a poor traveling East Carolina side, Im betting the home side grabs the victory behind the momentum of their opener. Also tbe Pirates have lost 13 of their L/16 road openers SU. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover

 The wrong team is favored here according to my projections. South Alabama got blasted by North Texas last week allowing 52 points while putting 38 on the board in return.  Ohio has a much better D, than South Alabama and  when looking at all the moving parts and are capable of putting alot of point production on board vs a ugly looking swiss cheese D. I know Ohio last to Syracuse 38-22 in game 1 of their season, but thats never an easy venue to play in. 

South Alabama has not faired well in the favorites role on the road failing to cash 10 of the rL/13 opportunities and  their HC Major Applewhite has failed to cover 6 of his L/8 as a road fav. 

Ohio is 11-1 L/12 SU at home . 

Play on Ohio

This  I-35 rivalry began in 2012 with UTSA winning all 5 matchups, including a 20-13 SU  last season at the Alamodome. Last week the Bobcats and Roadrunners squeezed past their opponents , but this week I expect we will see both sides at their best in the what the linesmakers expect to be a close game.  However my projections make UTSA the winner even though they starting a new QB  (McGowan) on the underdog line . Note: Texas State allowed 16 TD passes in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams. im betting this will be a problem again.  Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 64% (559 completions/872 attempts) since the 2022 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Play on UTSA to cover

The Gamecocks squeezed past Old Dominion last week for a 23-19 victory and lost the stats battles by 17 yards in total. South Carolina ran the ball 56 times in their season opener. That is the third-most attempts by a team in a single game this season. I expect them to continue to grind the ball on the ground, but they go against a Kentucky run defense that is of the top tier variety , and  this seasons front seven project to be the best of the Mark Stoops era. Carolina is in my opinion not a cohesive side and could well get blown out of the water here today vs . Mark Stoops troops from Kentucky that  are in revenge mode for two straight losses in this series. My projections estimate  their new  QB Brock Vandergriff,  matches up well here and should part Carolinas pedestrian D, like Moses parted the Red Sea. The Kentucky Wildcats are  15-0 ATS coming off a nonconference tilt when going against  a .500 or better opponent.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

This line has now been bet down to low- based on what I believe to be some false assumptions from some sharps and the public alike. Notre Dame may be in a letdown spot after their big road win against Texas A&M last time out. But this is their first home game of the season, and will want to get their offense unwound behind their new QB , and despite of N.Illinois projecting to be a top 3 MAc team this season- hey, their still a MAC team, and consistent defensive play is not one of things that stands out from this conference. Im betting in a letdown spot or not the Irish do some offensive damage here that will allow this total to be eclipsed. Also Notre Dame flashed some extremely strong D out of the gate vs Texas A&M and may show some wear and tear this week, and as the game goes on and firmly within the grasp of the home side, look for some starters to get rested and for Northern Illinois to find some success late in this game offensively, helping us push this combined score over the Total. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s giving us a strong edge here based on those factors that I have isolated. (From a side perspective Im not quite ready to take the points here despite of perceived value and will elect to pass -with a better safe than sorry mind set) 

Play over

Georgia Tech maybe over rated after beating a Florida State in their opener in Dublin,a Seminoles program that is now 0-2 on the season after losing outright to BC last week as 17 point chalk.  It must be noted that the Rambling Wreck are going against a Orange football program that 10-2 SU in their last 12 home openers and 9-0 SU in their first four games of the last couple of seasons.  The Rambling Wreck, have also lost 8 of 11 SU, and are  2-9 ATS as road favorites dating back to in the 2014 season , including  1-8 SU in road openers dating back 9 seasons. Syracuse is also  30-16-1 ATS at home when coming off a victory, which was the case last week and look like they have an explosive QB in Kyle McCord  who recorded   354 passing yards and four TD passes.  Syracuse is not an easy out for Gtech and taking the points here is the call. 

Play on the Syracuse to cover

 Texas and Michigan have faced each other just one , and that was in the 2005 Rose Bowl, a 38-37 thriller won by the Longhorns on a late FG. Here today Im expecting another close affair.  In their openers Texas blasted Colorado State 52-0 and Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 on the back of what could be college  footballs best defense behind new DC Don Martindale who comes to Ann Arbour from the Baltimore Ravens. . With the Longhorns  entire offensive skill position group being  new getting unwound and in top form is still a ways off, and the Colorado State game did nto qualify, considering the talent difference. The Wolverines D, offers up a whole different challenge. Advantage Michigan. 

 The Longhorns are 1-11 ATS as road chalk  when coming off scoring 50 or more points  in a victory. Texas is also 1-78 ATS  L/10 vs Big 10 sides, and 0-7 ATS vs Big 10 as favs. 

Michigan is 6-0 SU/ATS against SEC opposition  when they are coming off a double-digit victory which is the case this week.

Play on Michigan to cover

This will be Army's first game as a new member of the AAC and they will once again focus on  an almost exclusive run game  and try to systematically   dismantle Florida Atlantic here on the road today.The Cadets enter this game on a 5 game win streak, and deserve respect here in the underdog role.  On the flipside Im not liking what I saw in FAUs first game vs Michigan State on offense and especially at the  QB position ,as was evident  by going 2 for 15 on third down conversions . Note FAU is 3-9 ATS L/12 lined home opening  tilts  and are just 1-4 SU L/5 as hosts overall. Army HC Jeff Monken in games played on a grass field 12-5 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.5 ppg.

Play on Army to cover

Kansas State only has four starters back on offense and will rely on the running game behind  DJ Giddens. Im betting the Cats will not be as fluent offensively as they have been in the past. Meanwhile, Tulane a program on the rise starts their season with a new HC Jon Sumrall  who was on a 23-4 SU run with the Troy Trojans before landing here/ Tulane is 7-3 ATS in the last ten as a home dog and Jon Sumrall is 7-1 ATS as a dog. KCState ks just 2-8 ATS L/10 on the road as a favorite of less than 14 points. Advantage Tulane 

We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

 Im expecting Florida State to bounce back here after being upset by Georgia Tech last week in Ireland. But Im also betting after their long trip over seas and their return acclimation to the time change here in North America things will not go smoothly. Meanwhile, this  Boston College  football program is a side  that can make  life miserable for them with star dual threat QB  Thomas Castellanos  taking snaps.Add to that the viable coaching of new HC Obrien and upgraded D through the transfer portal  and you have a situation where this many points with a 17 return start roster  should be looked at a strong opportunity to cash a underdog ticket. Florida State has won five straight in the series but four of those were decided by seven points or less. - BC  is 20-11  ATS in Conference games since 2020 for a 65% conversion rate. * FL State  is 8-17  ATS in Conference games since 2021 for go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston College to cover

 USC HC  Riley and USC are not  getting much respect here vs LSU , but it must be noted he has been solid in the  underdog role , going 6-1 ATS in his career when taking more than a FG , including 4-0 ATS during the regular season. The Trojans have also covered 3 of their L/4 season openers as pup[s. Its also important to note that Riley is a perfect 12-0 in his career as a HC of USC in opening games and Brian Kelley has lost his L/2 seasons openers. Im betting USC revamped D, and always explosive offense really make this into a hard fought game, which taking the points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Play on USC to cover

James Madison had no problem running up scores last season, even with DD leads  and here against a Charlotte side  that  will be without a number of their starters due injuries that could once again be the case. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Dukes come close to eclipsing this totals offering all by themselves and for Charlotte to do enough damage to help us cash an over bet. 

Play over

 Alot of public money continues to stream in on Texas  A&M in HC Mike Elkos debut on the sidelines for the Aggies. There is a saying that was termed before the last financial crash in around 2007 -2008 and that was irrational exuberance. Thats why Im betting we are seeing here. While Texas A&M are a fine team, the Irish are an esteemed football program, with great pedigree and even though they are starting a new QB in Riley Leonard who comes over from Duke this team must not be underestimated getting a FG on the line. Note: Notre Dame 7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog in season openers. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Im betting this  UNLV team can score in bunches behind what is a deep QB core - as  Hajj-Malik Williams, Matthew Sluka and Cam Friel – are all listed  as co-starters.-along with a  up-trending viable WRs core  . The Rebs should find lots of success vs a Houston program that is  rebuilding a defense that finished 120th in the country in opponent EPA last season. 

Note: UNLV football  programs have some nice trends backing them in this road opener. UNLV is 12-0 ATS away L/12 in non-conference tilts. 

Play on UNLV to cover

 South Alabama has a first-time head coach at the helm of the football program this season as Major Applewhite  will bring back just seven  starters from a 7-6 team that did not impress last season. Meanwhile, the North Texas Mean Green return 10 starters but their offense is expected  to be every bit as explosive as it was last season when they averaged 34.5 ppg. Alabama has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 games at home on Saturdays while North Texas is 7-0-1 ATS L/8 on Saturdays.

Play on North Texas to cover

My projections for this game estimate a score closer to the 60 point plateau. 

The Broncos  will be in tough here in   their season opener on the road against a Georgia Southern team that went 5-1 SU at home last year, has won 16 of its past 17 home openers. With that said, Im betting they give the Broncos a run for their money and what will Im betting not be a defensive style game, but rather a back and forth style track meet (or similar) type of affair. note: Georgia Southern plays a lot of man coverage and that means the speedy Boise State Broncos will be able to take advantage of this and put into play what their new offensive coordinator Koetter says he wants to see more explosive offensive plays which should produce alot of points. On the flipside Georgia Southerns dual threat  QB French is a man under center that maybe highly under rated - after sitting out at Memphis in first season in College football he transfered to GS and went 13 for 16 via 48 snaps, and is ready to be let loose on opponents this season. He will offer up a challenge to the Broncos D. Overall there is alot of good offensive talent on the field for both sides and a over bet is viable investment option. 

Georgia Southern has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)

This one stands out as having some exceptional value attached to it. Yes Umass looked alot more viable last year, and garnered a 3 win season, but  with a 6-46 SU record L/5 seasons -they are a long way from being a perennial fav and from my perspective look like they are a weak chalk choice this week vs a Eastern Michigan program that has been to a Bowl game in 6 of their L/8 campaigns. EMU is 33-13 ATS L/46 road games. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Im not a HC Cristobal fan and despite of transfer portal giving him gun slinger  QB Cam Ward , I still don't like the trajectory of the team and its overall chemistry. On the flipside, Im also not a big fan of Billy Napier's inconsistencies as the swamp is getting restless behavior from their backers after consecutive losing seasons. Now on the hot seat, Im betting a gigantic effort here from the Gators vs Canes. Note:Napier  4-1 is  SU/ATS in his  career as a home pup  as well as cashing  11 of his L/13 SU/ATS as a underdog of less than 5 points. Florida is also  41-1-2 SU in home openers dating back 44 seasons , including a staggering  37-0-1 against non-conference opposition like the Canes. Key players personnel update: This Hurricanes defense is replacing all four starters on the back end, and the Gators have the offensive options to take advantage of his situation. 

Play on Florida to cover 

  I like the trajectory this West Virginia football program  is taking and Im going to back them out of the gate here vs Penn State. The Mounties rank 12th in offensive returning production and are backed by what is now an  up-trending QB in  Garrett Green. Here in this opening week spot play Ill take the home side that has won 19 of their L/20 home openers  SU to be in  revenge mode  vs a Penn State side that beat them DD fashion last season ( 38-15) . Note: HC Brown of the Mountaineers is 13-6-1 ATS L/20 with revenge for a DD defeat. With that said at more than TD we have a value situation that deserves our action.

Play on West Virginia  to cover 

The Oklahoma Sooners project to get and easy cover and win here at home in Norman where they have won 15 straight home openers. This Sooners team is never to moralistic as to take their foot off the preverbal gas pedal when they get a lead and Im betting nothing changes tonight vs Temple in what Im betting will see the score run up in ugly one sided fashion.  From a lines makers perspective I see exactly why this line is this big.  Enormous  favorites  like the Oklahoma Sooners  on a line of -37.5 points or more have been money in the bank for their backers  in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening portion of college football dating back to the  2013 season  recording a 14-0 SU/ ATS (100%) run . When opening lines are in the 40 point area  these games have seen an  average score of 58.2 to 8.8. My projections estimate that the Sooners pound Temple by 45 points here or more. 

Play on the Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

Underdog North Dakota State has recorded a  FCS program record of 17 national titles and must not be underestimated in their ability to compete here vs prime time Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes.  The Bison are 3-1 all-time versus Big 12 opposition  with their last win coming against Iowa State in 2014.The Bison have won eight straight season openers and must not be underestimated in pulling off a SU upset here vs Colorado. They were picked No. 2 in both major FCS preseason polls behind two-time defending national champion South Dakota State.. NDSU is also 6-1 ATS in its past seven road games. Both Colorado and North Dakota State feature strong QB play with Shedeur Sanders taking snaps under center for the Buffs and the Bisons QB Cam Miller who has made 38 straight starts. With that said, Im betting on a back forth game with the experienced  Bison QB Miller making some big plays to keep this game close enough for a possible outright upset and more importantly a cover. 

Play on North Dakota State to cover

The Tigers finished last season  with a 7-4 SU  record and enter Thursday's tilt with returning quarterback Jacobian Morgan and dangerous group of defenders that the most interceptions in the nation last season. JSU has won every season opener since 2020 and Im betting they wont go down easily here in spot vs UL Monroe that is getting far to much respect . 

Jackson State to cover -LATE STEAM

SMU steps into the  ACC with 15 starters back from last season, including top gun  QB Preston Stone . This is a Mustangs team that has averaged 37 ppg over the L/5 seasons, and has upped their defensive capabilities as was evident last season when they allowed an average of just 17.8 ppg. Meanwhile, Nevada enters this season of a 2-10 campaign in 2023, and now have a new coach at the helm, former defensive coordinator of the Texas Longhorns. They return a fair amount of players, but their not winning ones, at this point and with new formations and schemes could easily find themselves just playing to find themselves here in the first part of this season, which is not a good omen for their chances covering here today.

Nevada is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Nevada is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home

Nevada is 2-20 SU in its last 22 games

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

SF barley got by both their opponents in the play offs, and despite of the vast array of talent have looked vulnerable of late especially on D, which is not a good omen going against the likes of super star QB Mahomes and company. ( Mahomes is 13-1 ATS L/13 as an underdog in his career )  Also the Chiefs D, has the stopping power to slow down the mighty 49ers offense, and here in the NFL championship game as the old adage goes Defense wins championships. We all know how good SF is behind RB Christian Macaffery but it must be noted that  KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-3 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Play on KC to cover-Play as low as a pickem for Chiefs 

.My projections for this Super Bowl game total come in at the low to mid 50s. Im estimating both teams eclipse the 24 point plateau. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.6 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 9-2 OVER in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Both these teams have solid defenses but both sides can make great defenses look average and thats what Im betting on in this big time tilt.

Shanahan is 9-2 OVER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Reid is 10-1 OVER  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 63.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 11-3 OVER )in road games vs. sub average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.

Play over

SF looked rusty after their lay off vs Green Bay last week, but are by far the superior side here this week according to projections on both sides of the ball. The Lions were great at home this season but no matter where they played their D was inconsistent, especially on the road where they allowed an average of 24.7 ppg . After watching them barely get by the Buccaneers last week, its obvious to me they are in over their heads this week. Hey I love the way the Lions played this season, and how far they have come, but like I said Im betting disappointment awaits them in SF this Sunday. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 23-9 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT L/9 at home. 

DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  L/31 in road games against NFC West division opponents. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

 Chiefs D, got them into the play offs and after looking dormant for a long time now look to be in top form which is not a good thing for any of their opponents. I know the Baltimore D is top notch but the way Mahomes looked this past week, and how the running game was also in sync it will be hard to bet against him. Also something that is always troubling to me is a team like the Ravens who played all out football all season, without any really struggles. Are they do for a down game? Its not uncommon for teams like this to hit a wall at some point. Whether that is the case or not Im still backing the Chiefs super star QB and probably the best coach in the NFL . Note: HC Reid is 13-4 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY. Reids L/26 as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.

Reid is 22-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

Mahomes and company are finally clicking and looking smooth on offense, and Lamar Jackson and his offensive unit have been smooth and hard to stop all season long. I know both these Ds, are staunch, but in the end it will be QB play and offenses that make the difference here today. Reid  in his L/18 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg scored. Harbaugh in his L/70 games  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg.

My own projections make this total closer to the 47 to 48 point threshold giving us a one possession edge on the number. 

KANSAS CITY is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 53.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (14-18 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games 36-12 OVER dating back to the 1983 season 

Five of the last six games in this series have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

The Bills and Chiefs battled in a 23-20 decision by the visitors on Dec 10/2023 of this season in Kansas City. Alot of things went wrong for the Chiefs in that game, and some questionable calls by the officials were the icing on the cake . HC Reid and company now have revenge on board, and at this time of year, Ds trump offenses. With that said, entering this game the  Chiefs Defense is operating at high level , allowing an average 15.5 ppg in their L/6 overall and Im betting will be the difference maker in a headline game that has the pundits  focused on the QB matchup of  Allen and Mahomes. 

Reid is 10-1 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent as the coach of KANSAS CITY.KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent   . Reid is 21-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

 The Buccaneers knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles in convincing fashion on Monday night to advance to the 2nd round and deserve respect here in the underdog role. I know  Detroit took out the Bucs in  Week 6 of this season, by a , 20-6 count but it must be noted that TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points over the last 2 seasons. The way TB QB Baker Mayfield’s played in   their  Wild Card win sets a  positive momentum driver for the Buccaneers and Im betting he goes toe to toe with Lions QB Goff and we get the cover.

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in road games this season with 7 of those  covers coming as dogs. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

The Packers pulled off a huge upset last time out vs Dallas but. now Rookie QB Love and company will go against a well rested SF 49ers side that will be fully ready to make sure the same fate does not hold true for them this week. Note: NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 6-25 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-7 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff +12.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering.SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 ATS vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.5.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

I know rookie QB CJ Stroud has been explosive offensively this season , and last week highlighted that in a 45 point out put  win vs Cleveland. However, I now expect regression from the young QB as he  goes against a well rested staunch ball hawking Baltimore D, that has allowed an average of 16.5 ppg this season. On the flip-side, I expect the Ravens offense to to look to ground down the Texans with their run game behind the legs of QB LaMar Jackson and their solid rush attack. These teams met in Week 1 and Baltimore won 25-9 and Im expecting similar  points output. 

HOUSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 with a combined average 40.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored. 

The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.40 Units / -36% ROI)

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 32.6 ppg scored. Also each of the Ravens past 10 games played in January at home have gone under the points totals.

Play on the UNDER

Texas rookie QB  CJ Stroud Im betting will finally have his hands full in the play off game vs a well rested   No. 1 seed. The kid is great, but this is just to huge a step up in class here for him. Baltimore won the first meeting this season against Stroud in company by a 25-9 count  and a repeat performance looks to be in cards here according to my projections. Baltimore has won 7 straight meetings in this series  at home.  BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4. 

Play on Baltimore to cover

My projections estimate a a score in the high 30s here today giving us at least a FG advantage on this offered number from the books.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 UNDER   against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg going on the board. Bowles in his L/6  home games off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of TAMPA BAY has seen a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 21 games (-6.30 Units / -27% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have only hit the Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 away games (-6.70 Units / -76% ROI) 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 24-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

Philadelphia's QB Hurts in his L/4 post season games has just  4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating and recently he has looked atrocious under center with a 82.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, on the flip-side , Tampa Bays QB Baker Mayfield ,  while not terrific  has been clutch in key situations. I believe the current show down favors Mayfield against a Eagles side that has looked consistently worse and has struggled more and more as this season has progressed. 

I know the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier this season but it must be noted that  NFL home pups  in the Wild Card Round  playing with same-season revenge are 9-1-1 ATS L/11. Wild card underdogs playing as hosts are 14-3 1 ATS L/17 overall. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, when playing on Monday night are 8-34 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLHome teams (TAMPA BAY) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the seasons are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Bills coach Sean McDermott makes alot of bad decisions in key spots and does not get alot of respect from many NFL pundits. Josh Allan is a top tier QB , but he has been less than explosive this season, and also has a penchant for bad decisions. Meanwhile, HC Mike Tomlin is probably playing for his job and Im betting we see a top tier version of him and his team here . Take the points.

BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Tomlin is 23-13 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 53-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI) and enter this game with momentum and should not be underestimated in their ability to pull off the SU upset vs a Lions side that has been suspect defensively at times this season. 

McVay is 29-17 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 13-5 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season as the coach of LA RAMS. Note: Detroit  has not faced a WR duo like this.  Kupp has the second-most receiving yards ever in a season with 1,947 back in 2021, 17 yards behind Lions Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Nacua, who broke two records for rookie receivers in 2023. Detroits suspect secondary will be the negative diff maker in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams 

An inexperienced QB at the helm of the Packers offense (Love)  makes them vulnerable in this road  play off game vs a seasoned Cowboys QB  Dak Prescott  . Cowboys HC McCarthy is 66-37 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 4-43 L/31 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with a average ppg diff of -10.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of -9.4. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Dolphins were beaten up on by both  Baltimore and Buffalo over their final 2 games and enter this game with a lack of momentum. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have achieved a decent season, thanks to a solid D, instead of what you might think would be their stud QB Mahomes. In a big play off game like this Im betting the Chiefs D, and clutch QB play in a spot light affair will be the difference maker. In other words the Chiefs play off experience will be an important factor as well. Also one last thing the game time temps of this affair are expecting to be in the single digits which does not bode well for a side use to playing football in warmer temps.MIAMI is 0-6 ATS   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS   after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 15-4 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Mahomes is 11-3 SU in the postseason. He has led the Chiefs at least to the AFC title game five years in a row, and appeared  in the Super Bowl three times, and won it twice. He has 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 14 post season tilts. rinse and repeat. 

Play on Chiefs to cover

The Browns after losing QB Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb have now transitioned to a more wide open type of offensive  side behind Joe Flacco.  who has accumulated 1,616 yards passing, 13 TDs and eight picks in 5 games. Note: CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in all 8 of its road games this season with a combined average score of 54 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile, the Texans behind QB Stroud have a man under center that has thrown for the  third-most yards  by a NFL rookie (4,108) while connecting for 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.  Im betting he does enough damage today to help us get this over bet into the plus side of our bankrolls. Cleveland has allowed an average 29.6 ppg on the road this season.

When these teams played in December the combined for a 58 points. 

Play over 

My projections make this Washington Huskies team an  underdog of closer to a FG in a game Im betting will be much closer than this line suggests. Huskies HC DeBoer is  8-1 ATS as a  pup , including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and is also  6-1 SU against  undefeated opposition. Meanwhile, HC Harbaugh owns a  11-21-1 ATS career vs undefeated sides like Washington. Teams like Michigan who defeated a Nick Saban side last time out have failed to cash 11 of their L/14. My own view here is the Michigan wolverines after getting some fortunate calls and a dream play run at the game to tie Alabama could find it hard to get their emotional drive back here . After watching in disbelief Saban allowed Michigan  to take the ball first in OT with momentum   which resulted in a TD. Then on offense the Tides miscues cost them from tying the game.  Now  Im betting the Wolverines  will now be in a huge letdown spot. In my opinion it was Saban that lost that game and gifted it to Michigan.  Hey dont get me wrong the Wolverines are fine team, but Im betting on Huskies super star QB Penix who can make the best of Defenses look bad to step up here and give the edge to the Huskies to cover. note: DeBoer is 11-1 ATS   in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on Washington to cover

The Chicago Bears come into this game having won  four of its last five games, with the only l defeat coming by 3 points. I know the Green Bay Packers desperately need a win here to get a wild card spot in the post season,  QB Justin Fields is finally starting to look like a top tier NFL QB and will be  primed to make sure the Bears  dont just lie down and play dead for the Packers.    In his L/9 trips to the gridiron  he has passed for  1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and  uses his legs proficiently rushing  521 rushing yards, This game looks much closer to a pickem according to my projections. Spoiler alert in play here. Oh one last thing I know Green Bay has owned the Bears in the recent past but that was with Aaron Rodgers under center. 

GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS   after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season this season.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 61-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The SF 49ers are expected to rest  their key starters here today giving the Rams a rare advantage .  The Rams are running hot having  three straight and six of its past seven games. Considering the The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road pup it is not a hard decision to take the points here today. The Rams also have the added motivation of revenge for a loss earlier this season to the 49ers- Note: McVay is 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS. Also the Niners are off a  DD win vs the Washington last week by a 27-10 count which is not necessarily good omen as Shanahan is 1-8 ATS  ) in home games off a double digit road win as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFLHome teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-61 L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Blaine Gabbert starts for the Chiefs today. The  last time he started was in 2018  season for the Tennessee Titans. KC cannot do any better than where they are entering the play offs and are not really interested opponents for the Chargers today. There will plenty of Chargers hopefuls that will be primed to play this game considering the Chargers will be over hauled in the off season. Advantage Chargers. KANSAS CITY KC is 0-6 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 1-10 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover

The L/3 meetings in this series between Seahawks and the Cards have seen a combined average 63.6 combined PPG.

ARIZONA has gone OVER  in all 7 of their home games with a combined average of - 55.3 PPG scored. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. Arizona has gone over three straight games with a combined average of 61 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Seattle  allowed a sub par  Pittsburgh offense to put 30 points on the board  and this week QB Murray and company should come close to duplicating that out put in a game that Im betting goes over the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play over

After having been robbed in the previous game because of suspect officiating the Detroit Lions are in a nasty mood and ready to take their frustrations out this week vs the visiting Minnesota Vikings The Lions  own a 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 record against Vikings and here at home have a been a dominant side, winning five of seven games while scoring 30.6 ppg. Advantage Motown.

DETROIT is 11-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 9-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of DETROIT.

Play on the Lions to cover

This is a good opportunity here for a over bet at this time of the year in a indoor stadium.  both these teams are in the play off picture and Im betting on some aggressive football today. When the colts played the Texans earlier this season the game easily eclipsed the number, and a rinse and repeat situation seems imminent. The Colts have gone over in 7 of 8 home games this season with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. Last week the Texans only allowed 3 points to a pedestrian Tennessee offense, but it must be noted that NFL away sides  have gone  over 14 of the L/16  times when off a division home victory where they allowed  3 or less points , when the Total is  48 or less points like this game presently is. Also INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scoredI. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored.

Play over

The Ravens enter in this game expected to rest alot of players and the Steelers are in desperation mode as they need to win this game for any chance they have to get into the play offs, and some luck. The Ravens are a deep team and must not underestimated in their abilities to compete here even with some of their key starters on the side lines. It must be  noted that 17 of the previous 31 games in this series have been decided by a field go or less and 24 of those games by one score or less. It must also be noted that the Ravens are  13-1-1 ATS as a home pup in this series when the Steelers own an above .500 record.  BALTIMORE is also 11-2 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

 PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ravens to cover

Washington undefeated season came by route of an explosive offense that averaged just under 38 points per game and  rarely could be slowed. their Achilles heel has and is their D that allowed  30.1 ppg, and Texas is a team that can exploit that as is evident by averaging 36.2 ppg this season and that put up 57 and 49 points respectively in their L/2 games of the season. What Im betting on here today is a back and forth blockbuster that easily eclipses this total.  TEXAS is 10-0 L/10 OVER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 68.7 ppg scored. TEXAS is 16-3 OVER L/19 after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games with a combined average of 71 ppg scored. Washingtons HC DeBoer has seen his team score an average of 43.2 in his teams L/10 non conference games.

Play over

Alabama started slowly this year but like a  run away freight train seem unstoppable now. 

The Tide enter this game with some powerful trends on their  side. For example Alabama is  20-3-1 ATS as an underdog against  an undefeated team and the SEC champion team  is  perfect  6-0 ATS in a Bowl game  vs a undefeated side.  On the flipside the wolverines are 0-6 SU/ATS in their L/6 Bowl games.

I know Michigan can run the ball, and have a mobile QB, but Sabans crew owns 30th ranked rush defense in the country allowing just   3.7 YPC and 124.5 YPG. I can see Harbaugh finding the sledding tough in this matchup and thus for us taking the points makes alot of sense. 

ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play this season.

Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of MICHIGAN.

Play on Alabama to cover

The Tennessee Volunteers have alot of talent, but that has not helped all that much this season, as they underperformed as compared to what the pundits though they would achieve. The Vols owned the worst time of possession in all of FCS football, and here against Iowas super staunch D, will be challenged to hold the ball for long here today. What Im betting on is that this disciplined Iowa D, that ranked 5th in not taking penalties this season will life miserable for a mistake prone and undisciplined Vols side that ranked 127 th in penalties this season. I know the Hawkeyes offense has looked stale this season, but it must be noted that TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS L/20 versus terrible offensive teams - averaging 4.25 or less yards/play. Also Ferentz is 31-18 ATS  when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of IOWA with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Liberty comes into this game undefeated and have out yarded their opposition in every game this season and Im betting if they lose to this powerful Oregon side they wont go into the night easily. After losing the PAC 12 championship to Washington, the Ducks may find themselves in a emotional letdown spot. With RB Bucky Irving opting out and a litany of other key missing parts from the regular season the Ducks are waddling in this tilt vs a formidable opponent.  QB Bo Nix cannot win this game on his own.

Note: Pac 12 Bowlers are 3-26 ATS vs teams coming off a victory like Liberty.  
Liberty 6-0 ATS vs. sides  coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 26-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover

QB Jayden Daniels’ will play for LSU today and his name alone has over bloated this line in favor of the underdogs Wisconsin. It must be noted that Heisman Trophy QBS  have lost 20 of 31 games SU vs top tier  defenses that give up 19 PPG or less like the Badgers. I know LSU has flashy explosive offense but Wisconsin has a very tough D, that can slow down the best of attacks. On the flips side Im betting the Badgers can grind their way towards the red zone , and also do some damage to a non existent  LSU red zone D, ranked 113th in the nation. Note:

Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points while, the Badgers have covered 6 of their L/8 as 6+ point underdogs.

CFB Neutral field favorites (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 34-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Going over in a indoor game at this time year is alot more optimal a bet than an under in a out doors game. With this game going in a dome tonight, Im betting on alot more offensive fireworks than the lines-makers might expect. Both sides recently have been involved in higher scoring affairs, with the Packers going over in 5 straight games, combing for 52 ppg while Minnesota has gone over in two straight with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored. I know this is essentially a play off elimination game with loser not going to the post season, but instead of a chess match these sides are more suited to playing an aggressive take no prisoners type of affair which translates into a higher scoring game. 

GREEN BAY is 22-4 OVER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 48 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51.2 ppg scored ( GB beat Carolina 33-10 last week)

MINNESOTA is 17-5 OVER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.2 ppg scored. ( Vikings lost to Lions last week 30-24)

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 42-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

Las Vegas is off a big win last time out at KC and are 5--1-1 ATS under new interim HC Antonio Pierce . With momentum on their sides going against a Colts side, that is just 1-6 ATS hosting AFC West opposition taking points here with the reborn Raiders looks very much to be. viable betting option. It must also be noted that the visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS L/5 and  Raiders’ interim head coach's  when coming off a victory the last three seasons, are  5-1 ATS as a pups, and 3-0 ATS against opposition like the Colts  coming off a SUATS defeat.

LAS VEGAS is 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. (Beat KC last week 20-14)

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-31 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LAS VEGAS) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

 I know the Bucs won last time out as hosts, but that has been a recipe for disaster for their betting backers as they are  0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. I know QB Baker Mayfield has looked great for the Bucs, but today he goes against a desperate Saints side that needs wins to have the possibility of making the pay offs. Today revenge and desperation trump the Bucs situational algorithms. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent and are 5-0 ATS when they have triple revenge on board. (Saints have lost last three to TB including a game this season)

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games  .

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 5-25 ATS L/30 seasons for. go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Baltimore is off a huge DD road win vs the SF 49ers last time out and will be in natural letdown spot here this Sunday. Note: NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 13-38 ATS L/10 seasons in their followup tilt. Also BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and top gun QB Lamar Jackson is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a straight up underdog victory. 

Meanwhile, Miami is off a ugly 22-20 win vs Dallas last time out and continue to uptrend in my power rankings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 97-49 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The Fins have also played teams like the Ravens tough recently going  6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Miami has covered their L/2 vs the Ravens including one here in Maryland and get my backing to cover this week in a key spot play. 

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas' offense has looked a little inconsistent the past two games as  Dak Prescott was limited to 134 passing yards by the Bills , but is more than capable of a bounce back effort here at home.In the team's home games, Prescott has completed 74 % of his passing attempts with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda vs visiting Motown. 

Dallas is 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS at home in this last 15 games overall , including a 5-0 ATS  when coming off a loss and are in bounce back mode. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Dallas also matches up well vs a explosive team like the Lions, going   7-0 ATS ( in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons 

Play on Cowboys to cover

Two very explosive offenses go head to head here in the Orange bowl with Florida State averaging 37 ppg, and their opponent Georgia averaging 38.4 ppg. Both these teams can make top tier defenses look average and thats what Im betting on today in this Bowl game. 

My projections estimate a much higher scoring game than the linesmakers- with both sides scoring 28Plus points  Note: GEORGIA is 46-0 OVER L/46  when both teams score 28 or more points . FLORIDA ST is 46-4 OVER L/50 when both teams score 28 or more points . 

Norvell is 13-3 OVER  with extended rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.4 ppg scored. 

Smart is 11-3 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 59 ppg going on the board in those games. 

CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-14 OVER L/5 seasons for. a70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Auburn lost  In the Stats battles , in all 7 conference games with a net average of -165 YPG and yet fine d favor with the linesmakers. Needless to say this was not one of better incarnations of the Auburn football program and Im betting they are getting far to much respect here  vs a Maryland side with a top tier QB at the helm of their offense,  ( future NFLer  Taulia Tagovailoa)

Auburn is -1-5 SU ATS L/6 Bowl games and failed to cover 7 of their L/8 against the Big 10.  AUBURN is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.

Teprs are 5-1 ATS  L/6 non conference tilts. 

MARYLAND is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Maryland to cover

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart can rip apart the best of defenses. Yes, Penn State has a top tier D, but their offense is very inconsistent . Note: Penn States respected defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has left a for a job at Duke, and will not be around to mentor his D today. Edge Ole Miss taking points. 

Big Ten bowl sides like Penn State  have lost 11 of 17 games  and are just  4-13 ATS versus the SEC football programs when they are a  three point or more  favorite. Ole Miss is  5-0 SUATS as the bowl under dog  of 3 or more points. 

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 L/30 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 170-101 L/31 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

Missouri has a strong QB and offense lead by their key arm under center  Brady Cook . With that said,  Im betting the Tigers do some damage here today. Meanwhile, despite of alot of transfer portal opt outs for Ohio State on offense the depth  of this top tier variety program  is very viable and and Im also betting  hold their own offensively no matter who the QB is. 

MISSOURI in their L/20 games in December games  have seen a combined average of 63.7 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MISSOURI) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the first half, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 32-11 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate fro bettors.

Play over