Toronto and Charlotte both have  both struggled . Charlotte is ranked 27th in ppg defense, behind the 7th ranked pace, so when they  are hitting shots like they did against Milwaukee recently they poured down 139 points in a win.  I now expect the Hornets to once again do some damage tonight as Im also betting the Raptors pedestrian offense will hit above their season average as they are forced into opening up with this totals number being eclipsed.

Clifford is 12-1 OVER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored. 

Nurse is 23-11 OVER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game as the coach of TORONTO with a combined an average of 232.1 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

Clippers play a strong defensive brand of basketball at home as is evident by   16-3 UNDER record in home games this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER  in home games after playing a road game this season which is the case here tonight with the average combined score of 207.7 ppg scored. CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board. I know Atlanta will push forward here, but the clippers will hold them back in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. 

LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 UNDER   in home games versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better  this season with a combined average of 208.8 ppg scored. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Portland ihas become more defensively-oriented as time has progressed  . Meanwhile,  Toronto  plays a mugging style of physical basketball that features a strong defense and  less than explosive  offense.

The Trail Blazers have the 12th-best scoring defence in the NBA and are ranked just 20th-best points per game average. The Raptors rank 11th in point against  defence and 26th in offensive production and 27th in pace  .  Im betting on grinding affair lower scoring affair. 

PORTLAND is 8-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. 

PORTLAND is 32-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers played last night and captured a win, (130-114) and now on tired legs as they play. back to back affairs, Im betting their strategy will not be a run and gun program, but instead a more defensive minded game plan out of transition that will skew this totals offering to the low side of the lines-makers estimates. Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

LA LAKERS in 7  division games  this season have seen a combined average of 227 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Saturday games are 46-14 OVER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season, on Saturday games are 61-26 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both these teams have played some wide open games of late, both are defensively deficient, but when sub par teams like San Antonio and Detroit go head to head there is a history of fairly low scoring events. One of  the key reasons for these lower scoring affairs is because they are usually more physical as both teams know they have a rare winnable game in their grasp, and the play becomes intense . 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO /DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 sub par teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 25-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - struggling defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

DETROIT is 19-9 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. 

Play on the UNDER 

analysis to follow thank you for your patience 

NBA team (ORLANDO) - playing on back-to-back days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 94-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA team (MEMPHIS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

The Celtics' defense allowed the Nuggets to shoot 57 percent from the floor (45-for-79) and 56.7 percent from 3-point range (17-for-30) in a loss at Denver last time out, and will now be focused on playing much better D tonight vs the Oklahoma city Thunder. From a  offensive stand point, Celtics have have really been struggling from beyond the arc  and failed to eclipse the 35 percent  plateau in six of their last eight tilts and have shot below 30 percent from behind the arc in five of those games. Im betting on these two above mentioned expected defensive  modifications and trends to directly effect this combined score giving an edge to a  under wager cashing . 

Under is 9-4 in Thunder last 13 overall.

Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

BOSTON in their L/39 games  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 216.9 ppg going on the board.

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA   teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 120 points or more are 52-20 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

After an extended 7 game home stand going into the high altitudes of the  Mile High City is not an easy task, and Im betting that will hamper the Celtics ability to play all out back and forth  hoops and instead I expect their quality D ranked 7th in defensive efficiency , to stand tall here and for the visitor to play conservative minded in transition. I know Denvers weakness is on D, and the Celtics are explosive offensively, but like I said above the high altitudes after a long home stand will effect their ability to be as aggressive as usual which will directly effect this Total not being eclipsed. Note: The Celtics rank 16th in pace while the Nuggets rank 20th. 

BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER  in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.

BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.

DENVER is 12-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons are with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Memphis is playing a top tier brand of defensive  basketball and Im betting they will dictate the pace and continue to operate with vigilance in transition. The Grizzlies rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Meanwhile, after playing Philadelphia last night and capturing a win via a strong all out effort at home, Im betting on a letdown effort here and for their offense to be limited. MEMPHIS is 18-5 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. Green is 11-1 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-9 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for 87% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Sacramento played a back forth game vs Denver day before yesterday and took a 127-126 victory. Im now betting they are in a letdown mode , and physically tired and not ready to run and gun here tonight vs a Jazz side off two straight upset defeats . Im now betting the Jazz will  be ready to play a better brand of disciplined defensive hoops. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 Friday games.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-2 in Kings last 9 games following a straight up win.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 116-52 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 80-40 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My projected total for this tilt featuring Atlanta and Brooklyn comes in at 229 which gives a two full possession value to the under on this offering. Brooklyn ranks 8th in ppg allowed and. operate at the 21st ranked pace in the NBA. Atlanta ranks in 14th in defensive efficiency. 

Under is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 12-4 in Hawks last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

ATLANTA is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg. 

BROOKLYN is 34-21 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg. BROOKLYN is 25-10 UNDER  after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The New Orleans Pelicans have been missing some of their best players, and  have stepped up and played quality ball.  This Pelicans team has taken part in a lot of back and forth offensive hoops , but it must be noted that they are ranked 6h in defensive efficiency in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana has also played well of late and its their defense that has been the catalyst . Because of added focus to paying attention to defense in transition, they have allowed 112, 108 points in two marquee wins vs Boston and Miami respectively and Im betting that will stick their winning game plan tonight  vs another top tier side and because of this Im betting the expected offensive output will not be eclipsed. 

Pacers are 8-3 UNDER L/11 overall. 

Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.Under is 17-7-1 in Pacers last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 18-7-1 in Pelicans last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER  in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg.

NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 100-49 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-35 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Lakers on the road- run and gun with wreck-less abandon and are usually punished defensively because their not focusing on their defensive responsibilities  in transition.  Overall they rank 2nd in pace in the league. They are scoring an average of 115.2 ppg game this season but rank 26th in in ppg allowed  and on the road allow a whopping 121.7 ppg on the campaign.  Dallas is the kind of team that  can- really roll up points in a hurry against this type of side behind super star Doncic. Im betting on a much quicker pace and a  more explosive offensive game than many might expect here on Christmas day. . 

LA LAKERS  in  8  road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 232 points per game scored.LA LAKERS are 36-22 OVER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-3 OVER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games.Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 overall.Over is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play over 

 The Thunder enter  Friday's game on a three-game winning streak, having garnered a win vs Portland 101-98  Wednesday to sweep back-to-back games against the Trail Blazers. It was their D, that showed up and played big and now against the run and gun Pelicans Im betting on them proverbially battening down the hatches again behind an improving D, that is now ranked 14th in the league in defensive efficiency. When these teams played on Nov 28 New Orleans took a 105-100 win and another physical battle Im betting is on tonights agenda. 

Under is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-5 UNDER   as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a win against a division rival are 28-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 29-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

This total based on my own projections should be closer to 231 which gives us a 2 possession value with an under wager. 

5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games.

MEMPHIS is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season are 213.4 ppg scored.

DENVER is 14-4 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Oklahoma City has only eclipsed the total in 1 of their L/10 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, Portland in their 17 road games this season seen a combined average of 219.6 ppg go on the scoreboard. and rank 28th in the NBA in pace. with this being the Blazers 4th straight road game in the L/6 days Im betting they will hold to their usually methodical pace which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the Totals offering. 

Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. 

PORTLAND is 29-17 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a ATS win which was the case last time out.

 .NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 28-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 33-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

Houstons D has been playing well lately, but the run and gun Damian Lilliard Blazers will test that prowess here tonight forcing the Rockets out of their recent comfort zone. I know the Blazers played last night in Dallas, but they are a well conditioned group and more than capable of finding their legs in a back to back situation. It must also be noted because Dallas took such a big lead last night in their win vs the Blazers the Lilliard only played 24 min. So the super star will be fresh tonight and ready to continue his offensive assault. The first meeting this season between these sides saw a combined 236 points go on the board.

Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 115.4 . My projections estimate that Portland eclipses that average and the chasing Rockets chase their output and help us cash an over ticket.  

PORTLAND is 7-0 OVER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 30-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Denver scored 141 points last time out and now Im betting on some major regression from an offensive output perspective. Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Im betting his directly effects this total to the under here in this tilt vs LAK. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 101-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Portland has won three straight and five of its last six with Lillard leading the way. He is shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 50.7 percent from 3-point range since returning. Im betting he prompts Doncic and company in all out offensive slugfest. 

Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall.

PORTLAND is 9-1 OVER  after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. 

Over is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47%  or more of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 season for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

Play on the over 

Minnesota in a  recent defeat were bashed by a  133-112 count  on Monday when the Wolves saw their opponent shoot 45.7 percent (21 of 46) from 3-point range. The current form of their D, portrays a situation where the Clippers project to score above their  current offensive averages. This will aid in overall offensive output projections. Minnesota ranks 2nd in pace, and even without Townsend in the lineup are in all out attack mode which leaves them vulnerable in transition. MINNESOTA is 23-6 OVER  after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those 29 games clicking in at 241.1 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average of 234 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 285-192 OVER L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate with the combined average of 227.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Orlando has allowed an average of 116.1 ppg at home this season and rank 27th in the league in defensive efficiency  and Im betting the visiting Milwaukee Bucks  will breach that output here today and for the Magic in chasing fashion to put up enough points for us to cash an over ticket. 

MILWAUKEE in 25 road tilts    versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons a combined average score of 226.1 ppg have gone on the scoreboard.

Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 239.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER

With top player Cade Cunningham sidelined  due to a shin injury, the Pistons are finding it difficult to stay competitive, and tonight the Mavericks knowing how vulnerable their opponents are will be very aggressive especially on offense. This Im betting leads to a fairly wide open affair, that easily eclipses this total. Note: Detroit ranks 29th in the league in ppg allowed defense and 29th in defensive efficiency. 

Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

DETROIT is 13-4 OVER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. Over is 8-3-1 in Pistons last 12 home games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 130 points or more are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average score of 234.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG).are 72-34 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 230.4 ppg.

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play over

My owns projections estimate a combined score of 227 plus points , which gives us value on this offering .Utah averages  116.7 (4th of 30) while allowing  115.5 (22nd of 30).  Meanwhile, the Clippers are essentially on the other side of the spectrum offensively and defensively, but as they showed us last night are reving up offensively and off a 118 output while allowing 112 points in a victory vs the Blazers. On tired legs tonight the Clippers in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City wont have the energy needed to play strong D, and this Im betting helps this combined score eclipse this offering. 

Over is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better  of their shots are 31-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 22-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. 

Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Utah.

Play OVER 

My own projections estimate a combined score of 230 . Thus we have value with taking the under in this public centric  Totals offering. 

Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

SACRAMENTO is 27-12 UNDER  in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 34-16 UNDER  off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg . 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

NBA team (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 127-72 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Boston.

Play on the UNDER

My own projections make this total closer to 223 giving us a full possession value on a over wager.  (The Bucks are the 2nd best ppg defensive team in the league at the moment while the Spurs are the worst). Im betting the Spurs here on their own home court behind a 5th ranked pace try to get the Bucks out of their  comfort zone and turn this game in to a more wide open affair. This Im betting results in this total being eclipsed. Both these sides have a hsitroy of higher scoring non conference affairs. 

SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 OVER  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg going on the score board.

Budenholzer is 27-14 OVER  against Southwest division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 235.3 ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE is 45-25 OVER  in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. with a combined average of 235.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Boston brings a 21st ranked pace into this tilt against the Nuggets. The Celtics FG conversion rate has been above average to start the season, and thats why in part their output has been near the top of the league,  but regression should start to rare its ugly head at some point, and according my projections based on their expected offensive production dip in this tilt,  this totals offering  is a tad high and should be closer to 228-- giving us value on the under. 

Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

BOSTON is 37-23 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.

Play UNDER

I know both these sides can pour down points,  but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of  tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. 

MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER  in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head  Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number.

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output,  and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may  treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated  trip to Disney. Grinder on board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER   in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE L/12  road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER  in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Clippers last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.

Play on the UNDER

 The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the  Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive  regression.

Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. 

UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games.

Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a  134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. 

SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNDER 

I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager.

GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 UNDER  in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more  PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder  especially  after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. 

LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. 

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow  down their opponents  in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun  with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case  vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured  allowing  80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. 

LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots.

DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Both these teams NYK and the Magic  took part in run and gun fast paced games last time out, and Im betting on tired legs and offensive regression taking its toll here tonight in what will see this combined score fail to see this offered number from the lines-makers being  eclipsed.

Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Thibodeau is 16-4 UNDER  versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 202.6 ppg. 

NEW YORK is 42-25 UNDER  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209 ppg. Under is 14-4 in Knicks last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 6-2-1 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 20-7-1 in Knicks last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this offered total. Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Golden States modus operandi since the beginning of this season, has been to play a top tier brand of defense, and the same can be said about the Boston Celtics . Now tonight in a pivotal game 5 battle, Im betting on some very physical hoops with defense being a priority for the NBA two top Ds,  out of transition. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 201.9 ppg scored.

Since the Warriors championship run in 2015, they have been tied 2-2 in a playoff series 4 other times. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in Game 5 in this spot. These contests have gone UNDER the offered Total by an average of 16.5 PPG.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 134-87 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Celtics were able to score and penetrate at will vs the Golden State Warriors in game 3, and Im betting Boston plans on being offensively aggressive again, but this time the Warriors  top tier D will adjust properly and make sure defense is their primary cause here tonight especially with Steph Curry playing injured and less than 100%. Also both sides are very tired as this has been an exhausting post season, and with exhaustion a factor a lower combined score  as well. 

 BOSTON is 32-18 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average 209.6 ppg scored. 

BOSTON in 72 games   as a favorite this season the combined average score clicked in at 211.6 ppg. 

Since the 2012-13 season, the total on Warriors tilts  has gone 28-10-1 UNDER  following a playoff loss in a series game for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Golden State is well rested and Im betting they come and attack Boston with all guns blazing tonight and force the Celtics out of their comfort zone in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. Boston must also not be underestimated in their ability to be offensively explosive in response to what is coming their way.

Over is 11-5 in Celtics last 16 games as an underdog.

Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 NBA Championship games.

My projections estimate the Warriors will score +109 points. Note:BOSTON is 15-3 OVER   when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER 

With a chance to clinch this series and  advance here tonight Im betting the Golden state Warriors come out tonight firing on all cylinders forcing the Mavs out of their comfort zone and into a more wide open  affair. This will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers estimates. 

Golden State scored 127 and 112 points at home in the first two games of this series and Im betting they score +115 here tonight with Dallas in hot pursuit with their estimated output in the 108+ range. 

Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 road games.

GOLDEN STATE L/25 games when revenging a road loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored.(Dallas won game 4 -119-109). 

Play OVER 

The Heat came out flat last time out and laid an egg in a lifeless effort losing by a 102-82 mark. However, Im now betting on a bounce back effort, from the Heat especially on offense where they will be much more aggressive but Im also betting the Celtics wont be easily run over and be ready to go head to head in what should be a much more explosive offensive tilt than what we saw in game 4. 

BOSTON is 17-8 OVER  after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 7-0 OVER  after a combined score of 190 points or less this season with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored.  MIAMI is 17-5 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 30-18 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored.  Over is 21-8 in Heat last 29 Conference Finals games.

Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 Conference Finals games.Over is 8-2-1 in Celtics last 11 games as a road favorite.Over is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 12-4-1 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Play OVER 

Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight.  Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. 

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.  

DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

With Butler  off a 40 point offensive out put in game 1  and now in top form the Heat will be hard to stop.Heat coach Erik Spoelstra won't be surprised if there is another Butler explosion in Game 2.

QUOTE: "Jimmy Butler is an elite competitor," Spoelstra said. "There are a lot of guys in this league playing basketball; he's competing to win. That's a totally different thing, and he does that as well as anybody in this league. END QUOTE

With that said, Im betting the Heat will go above their expected output tonight, and that the Celtics will have to open up and reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 Conference Finals games.

MIAMI is 28-17 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 32-18 OVER  when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 29-17 OVER  in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15ht in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 Conference Finals games.

DALLAS is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. Under is 47-23 in Mavericks last 70 games as an underdog.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 103-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

.

There was enough aggressive offensive action in game 4 of this series, with a combined 224 points scored for me to consider this totals offering as an  opportunity to cash an over bet.   Im betting on the Celtics being extremely aggressive tonight offensively knowing that the Bucks Kris Middleton is still not playing and have had time to access their best approaches against the Bucks ie Game 4s impressive victory.  I know Middleton is not a lockdown defender by any means but he is an excellent team defender and a key part of Milwaukee's defensive schemes due to his length and overall versatility, so with him continuing to be out you can expect Boston to be in a run and gun mode , which  will force the Bucks into opening up offensively or be blown of the court. 

Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

Over is 19-9-1 in Celtics last 29 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE/ BOSTON) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 198-122 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Play OVER 

The first game in this series saw a combined score of 235 points go on the board and Im betting on rinse and repeat type score here again in game 2. The Suns will attack non stop and force a Dallas side that ranked 30th in pace this season and 24th in offense out of their comfort zone and have to open up or be blown off the court like in game 1 . 

Suns are 5-1 over L/6 overall.

PHOENIX is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 10-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.8 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 17-8 OVER  in home games after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored.

Play on OVER 

Golden state ranks 3rd in ppg allowed and 1st in the league in defensive rating and only 15th in the league in offensive output, so D, is what got the Warriors here, and their defense will remain key to their possible advancement into the next round vs a explosive Memphis side. This above hypothesis is what Im basing an under wager on , plus a long list of trends that also support it. 

GOLDEN STATE is 40-21 UNDER in road games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996 with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. .GOLDEN STATE is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. Kerr is 34-19 UNDER (+13.1 Units) off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 51-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Golden State ranks 3rd in ppg allowed in the league and is ranked 15th in ppg offense, which tells you this team despite of some top tier offensive talent has gotten this far based on a top tier brand of D, and nothing will change here against the Grizzlies. At this number we still have value for an under wager and wont be deterred by all the attention centered on how explosive offensively the home side is. 

GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 218 ppg.  GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored.Kerr is 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 211.7 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 20-8 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Five of the lat 6 meetings here in Memphis between these two sides has gone under the set total. 

Play UNDER 

We are down to the nitty gritty here in this series, as Memphis can advance  with a win tonight on the road in Minnesota. With that said, Im looking for a a more conservative tentative game in transition that translates into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 games as a home underdog.

MEMPHIS is 20-9 UNDER versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the UNDER 

All the tilts in this series have been fairly high scoring with all 4 games going over the set total. With series victory at hand for the Warriors Im betting they come here firing darts. This will force Denver into opening up and chasing as they fight for their lives. This could easily be the highest scoring game in the series. 

DENVER is 13-4 OVER   when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 230 ppg scored.DENVER is 9-1 OVER  in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 23-9 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. DENVER is 10-2 OVER versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 OVER  when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 3 or more consecutive overs are 122-76 OVER L/26 seasons for a 62%. conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Phoenix shot 4-of-26 from long distance last time out and still 114 points on the board .   Im betting they bounce back and drastically increase their downtown shooting and for the offense behind Ayton and Paul to pick and roll all night long and to force a desperate Pelicans side in to opening up in a game I like to eclipse this total.  The last 6 games here on the Bayou between these teams has gone over the total, and a rinse and repeat situation is a viable outcome again, 

NEW ORLEANS is 29-16 OVER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season are 73-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Pelicans have tried to pay attention to strong defensive play down the stretch this season, and here against an explosive Suns side, an even more concerted and very physical  defensive effort will be employed. The Pelicans do not matchup well in a shootout scenario , so Im betting on them really trying to slow things down. Meanwhile, the Suns can also thrive in this type of game, and will gladly saddle up and be equally as physical which will translate into most of the offensive  action here tonight to be in slow motion transition. 

Under is 6-0 in Suns last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games as a home favorite.Under is 9-1-1 in Suns last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Under is 9-2 in Pelicans last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 10-4 in Pelicans last 14 overall.

NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. Green is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 25-16 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 26-9 UNDER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 14-6 UNDER against Pacific division opponents this season with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2

Atlanta has a stiff test here trying to get offensive flow going against a Miami team that ranks 4th in ppg allowed in the league behind the 28th ranked pace. This in itself Im betting helps keep this game on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 9-0 in Hawks last 9 games as an underdog.

Under is 7-0 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog.

Under is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

ATLANTA is 18-6 UNDER L/24  in the 2nd game of a playoff series with a combined average of 186.7 ppg scored. Historically speaking ATLANTA is 55-29 UNDER  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996 with a combined average of 184.4 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 102-73 UNDER L/175 when the total is 210 to 219.5 with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored.

Under is 24-8 in the last 32 meetings in Miami

Play UNDER 

The Suns finished their season with 5 straight unders, and going against a New Orleans  side that ranks 21st in pace and 21st in offensive ppg output Im betting the Suns 8th ranked D will hold down the fort and contribute to a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-12 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season are 221.1 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 UNDER (+7.5 Units) in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game this season with a combined average of 214.8 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 25-9 UNDER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. 

PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 25-15 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored.Green is 14-4 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Play UNDER 

Play Off basketball can be alot more physical than regular season NBA play, and thats what Im betting we will see here tonight between two offensive juggernauts . This Im betting directly gives us on an edge on this slightly bloated post season total. My own projections make this total closer to 233 giving us a full  possession plus advantage on the offered number. 

Under is 34-16 in Grizzlies last 50 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games as a favorite.

MEMPHIS is 17-7 UNDER  versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg going on the score board. MEMPHIS is 35-20 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - averaging 9 or more steals/game on the season, on Saturday games are 26-6 UNDER  L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 58-20 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Saturday games are 66-28 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 49-21 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors,

Play UNDER 

Play off basketball is here, and tonight we have an experienced post season group going up a young crew with virtually no NBA play off experience. I know Minnesota has been explosive offensively  for much of the season , but Im betting they will be slowed by a Clippers team that will want to be very physical and conservative here on the road , which Im betting leads to a combined score that is on the low side of this totals offering. 

LA CLIPPERS in L/12 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. ( Clippers lost to the Wolves at home  122-104 earlier this season)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss, with a winning record on the season.  49-22 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Lakers are on tired legs after playing last night as they lost to the Warriors on the road. Note: Under is 9-2 in Lakers last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. Meanwhile, the Thunder usually pay more attention to viable defensive play when they are on the road like they are tonight, and this combined with the Lakers exhaustion will help keep this score to the low side of the number. Under is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 LA LAKERS are 34-22 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.1 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY in 38 games as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 OKLAHOMA CITY/(LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%), in April games are 28-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

This selection is based on my projection of 229 combined output giving us a full possession plus value to the under. Note: Memphis is off a hard fought loss vs Utah last time out, and now on tired legs playing in the high altitudes of the Mile High city Im betting they will be on a more conservative path especially in transition which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the offered total . 

DENVER  in their L/11 home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 227 ppg go on the scoreboard. Under is 16-7 in Nuggets last 23 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MEMPHIS is 14-4 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons.Jenkins is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48%  or more of their shots as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 27-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

Two teams going through the motions and preparing for next season, take to the floor tonight as the Blazers visit the Thunder. Offensive inconsistencies remain an issue for both sides, and from a projection stand point my number (219) is substantially lower than this offering giving us a two full possession value.  Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 games as an underdog.Under is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 16-5 in Trail Blazers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

PORTLAND is 21-12 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season with.a combined average of  219.4 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND/OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving lower tier  teams (25% to 40%), in April games are 26-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The Pistons likely will be without forward Marvin Bagley III for the Friday game and this Im betting effects their offensive flow. Meanwhile, the Thunder are short handed and on tired legs and this will also effect their offensive output. Note: The Thunder will have just eight players available for the third consecutive game, with more players listed as out on the injury report (nine) than they'll be able to utilize. Advantage to the under. 

Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 overall. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 28-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY/DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 33-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

 When top tier teams and conference rivals  meet at this time of the season, you can generally depend on seeing a strong brand of defensive basketball.  This is what Im betting on here as both teams prepare to drive towards the play offs in disciplined fashion .

BROOKLYN is 21-8 UNDER  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.3 ppg scored.BROOKLYN is 17-7 UNDER   in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 221.4 ppg going on the board.  BROOKLYN is 30-18 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg scored. Under is 8-2-1 in Nets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

MILWAUKEE is 14-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 221 ppg scored. Under is 9-2-1 in Bucks last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games as an underdog. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 68-29 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in March games are 78-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Atlanta ranks 7th in ppg offense and 23rd in ppg defense, as they push forward with wreck-less run and gun action.  Considering the Thunders attention to defense has dropped off a cliff as the season has progressed as is evident by allowing 12 of their L/17 opponents to breach the 120 point plateau and 7 those 12 games have seen 130 or more points go on the board, its an easy decision to back a higher scoring tilt taking place. 

Over is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 230 (ATLANTA) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win against a division rival are 29-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Play OVER 

The Sixers rank 26th in pace and 8th in ppg defense in the NBA and tonight, Im betting they try to grind this game down to a snails pace in an attempt to be competitive vs an explosive offensive side in the Bucks. At this time of the season, top tier teams like these two sides prepare for the play offs by paying alot more attention to defensive play especially in transition, and Im betting thats what we see tonight with these Eastern Conference rivals.Note:   Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a home favorite.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg going on the board. MILWAUKEE is 14-5 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. 

PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-47 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Grizzlies offense has been hitting on cylinders of late scoring eclipsing the 122 point plateau 7 of 9 times and scoring more than 130 points 4 times during that explosive 9 game run. Considering the Golden State Warriors current sub par defensive performances allowing 121 and 123 points in their L/2 games Im betting the Grizzlies unload again and score more than 122 points here according to my projections with the Warriors chasing and hitting at least +101 points in a tilt that very much favors an over wager.  Note: Memphis ranks 3rd in ppg offense and 3rd in pace and will dictate the speed of this game here tonight.MEMPHIS is 23-13 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 227.3 ppg, GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 OVER   in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with the combined average of 225.7 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 15-2 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233.3 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

When these teams played back in December the Wolves took a 108-103 win and Im betting on a similar style of play here and a combined score that has rinse and repeat written all over it. Note: Celtics rank No.1 in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency behind the 24th ranked pace. Here at home they will dictate the speed of this game. 

BOSTON is 26-17 UNDER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored. BOSTON is 25-11 UNDER   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 208.4 ppg scored. Under is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 33-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 37-14 L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

My own numbers suggest this total should be closer to 229 giving us value on a under wager with a full possession advantage. Under is 4-1-1 in Rockets last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 8-1 in Trail Blazers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 14-2 in Trail Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Portland has seen their L/ 5 straight games go under the set total and Im betting this number is  hefty enough to go under the set total. HOUSTON is 18-7 UNDER  after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 27-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

My numbers have made this Total closer to 232 , thus giving us value to the under by more than a full possession.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 overall. Under is 3-1-1 in Rockets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .4

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 26-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate.

Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Play UNDER 

These teams just a met a couple of days ago in Orlando with the Magic taking a 90-85 victory.Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight from a offensive output perspective. 

Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 26-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Bucks key cog Middleton is expected out tonight vs the Bulls and Giannis Antetokounmpo is also less than 100% with some knee issues and is expected to play but Im betting the Bucks may not be as cohesive as usual , which will effect their output. Meanwhile, the Bulls are going under the set totals of their tilts consistently of late, with 7 of their L/8 going under as the lines-makers are over estimating the combined outputs. Im betting their number is once again off base and should be closer to 229, giving us more than a full possession of value to the under. 

 .Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 3-1-1 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 road games.

Under is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Donovan is 20-8 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season as the coach of CHICAGO with a combined average of 220 ppg scored.CHICAGO is 18-7 UNDER vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-11 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 33-10 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides have been running and gunning with wreck-less abandon of late, but from a matchup perspective my totals number comes in short of this offering giving us value with an under wager. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-4 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive overs and in 25 non conference games this season the average combined score has clicked in at 217.3 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 25-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 37-13  UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Orlando to cover 

Both these sides can light up the board with consistency and frequency, but at this time in the season, when top tier sides face each other their is a tendency for both sides to play a more physical  deliberate type of hoops, that often results in much lower combined scores than some current dichotomies may assert through data coverage.  Advantage to the UNDER. 

Under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 UNDER versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored.MILWAUKEE is 7-0 UNDER  versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. 

MILWAUKEE is 10-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-5 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with the combined average score of those tilts ringing in at 219.7 ppg. 

MINNESOTA in 9 games  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 229.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-17 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, in March games are 44-14 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA/MILWAUKEE ) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in March games. are 68-24 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Orlando ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive overall output and 29th in offensive efficiency while, Motown ranks 29th in offensive output and 28th in offensive rating . Its obvious prduction numbers are low, and Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

ORLANDO is 15-6 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored.Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 5-1-1 in Magic last 7 games as a favorite.

Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 overall.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 29-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 27-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 34-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Detroit has been playing very competitive ball of late behind a much more cohesive faster paced attack and today Im betting they drag the Clippers into a take. no prisoners offensive slugfest. Motown is playing with little or no pressure, as the play offs are but a dream for this young team , so playing with wreck-less abandon wont be an issue.  DETROIT is 10-2 OVER  in home games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS /DETROIT PISTONS) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 24-2 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 250.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

As we enter the stretch drive towards the NBA play offs many top tier teams realize the importance of playing two way hoops and tonight Im betting on some pre post season action, as defensive ball will be on full display. Note: Golden State ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating . 

MILWAUKEE is 24-7 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.3 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 18-7 UNDER  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. Budenholzer is 34-18 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MILWAUKEE are 219.5 ppg scored.  GOLDEN STATE is 32-18 UNDER  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the a combined average 221 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

When these teams played in Boston earlier this season they combined for 220 points in a Celtics 113-017 win. My numbers suggest a similar output here as my estimates configure at reaching the low 220s giving us a solid under advantage based on those projections. Note: Boston Ranks 3rd in defense ppg and 2nd in defensive rating  and 24th in pace, and have the ability to control this tempo even in a road environment on rested legs as they have not played since the 6th of March. 

Under is 16-5 in Hornets last 21 games as an underdog.

BOSTON is 22-10 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 208 ppg scored. 

CHARLOTTE is 14-5 UNDER  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average 220.8 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE is 11-1 UNDER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 211.8 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHARLOTTE) - with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, in March games are 42-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Both these sides are off DD wins and now Im expecting a reversion to the mean in what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair. Im especially looking for a more muted effort from the Pelicans who played in Utah last time out and notched a DD victory in a game that they played hard in and exerted alot of effort right until the very end. 

Under is 7-0 in Pelicans last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-1-1 in Pelicans last 11 road games.Under is 6-1-1 in Pelicans last 8 games following a straight up win.

NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 209. 2 ppg going on the score board. NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 UNDER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 211.1 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

Under is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 games as a favorite.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 3-1-1 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Over is 9-3-2 in Nuggets last 14 home games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 72-26 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

The last 4 meetings here in Denver have gone under the total. 

Play on the UNDER 

Phoenix and Milwaukee are explosive offensive sides. The Suns rank 3rd in offensive rating in the league behind the 9th ranked pace.  Suns have takes part in 6 straight games with 230 or more combined points scored. Meanwhile, the Bucks rank 4th in offensive output in the NBA behind the 8th ranked offense. 

Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600The Suns are 6-0 OVER  L6 vs .500 or better  opposition and 5-0 OVER L/5 after a 3 or more game home stand  Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone over in 8 straight non conference  tilts and have gone over in 5 straight vs the Suns with a combined average of  (250.0)  ppg going on the scoreboard and have gone over in 10 of their L/11 vs Pacific division sides with a total of 225 or more.

Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 home games.Over is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 overall.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 55-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Two teams struggling to hold position in the Western Conference playoff race do battle at Staples Center tonight . Im expecting a real battle here today despite of Golden State holding a big road fav stance here. Im not willing to pull the trigger on the side, but this total looks vulnerable. The Lakers lost to the Warriors 121-114 at home in the season opener and a similar type score is not out of the question. Over is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games as an underdog. Note: The Lakers are ranked 4th in pace and 26th in ppg allowed and tonight with James expected in the lineup Im betting on a aggressive Lakers side to show up and show some life vs a equally aggressive side that is expected to ratchet up their attack in desperation mode. 

Golden State has seen 7 of their L/8 games eclipse the total. 

Over is 6-0-1 in Warriors last 7 games following a ATS loss.Over is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 3-0-1 in Warriors last 4 road games.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 OVER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 228.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 130 points or more are 33-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate with the combined average of 236.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-9 L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 232.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

When these teams went head to head back in late January a final score recorded as 94-90  and while I expect a higher scoring affair this time around my projections still estimate a combined score that fails to eclipse this offered number. Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 home games.

MILWAUKEE is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. 

CHICAGO is 18-7 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 32-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Raptors score 133 points last night in a DD win vs Brooklyn and Im betting they continue to attack tonight and for the revenge minded Nets to fire  back with some explosive offense of their own. The Raptors have gone over in 8 of their L/9 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here. BROOKLYN is 14-4 OVER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored.

TORONTO is 9-1 OVER  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 130 points or more are 42-15 OVER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate with the average of 231.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 35-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate with a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

These teams are obviously trending towards what would be estimated to be a higher scoring affair , but according to my personal matchup indicators this game will not cross the offered totals  number. My projections estimate a combined score of 232. Giving us a full possession plus advantage. 

MEMPHIS is 13-3 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.2 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO/MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER 

Im betting these two well rested teams will play above their usual paces, and easily eclipse this number which I have projected to be 210+.  Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a road favorite.

Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Bickerstaff is 11-1 OVER  in road games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with a combined average of  221.1 ppg scored. 

Casey is 21-9 OVER in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored.Casey is 18-6 OVER   in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest in all games he has coached with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored.Casey is 13-3 OVER  in home games off a road win as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 226.8 ppg scored.DETROIT is 14-3 OVER  in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 45-22 OVER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Detroit.

Play OVER 

San Antonio as this season has progressed has turned into a run and gun group, that pays very little attention to defense ranking 5th in pace in the league while ranking 21st in ppg allowed  while also ranking 8th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Chicago ranks 7th in ppg offense, and are more than capable of offensive fireworks of their own, something that Im betting they will be pushed into . End result of tonights tilt will see the combined score eclipse this total. 

CHICAGO is 12-0 OVER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 245.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) a  27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

It's not that I don't believe this game is going to be high scoring, because in all likely hood it will be. However, Im betting the number is slightly bloated and should be closer to 235 , giving us a full 2  possession edge to the under if my projections are correct.

The Jazz Im betting come right after the Warriors tonight in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City in effort to wind their opponents. That Im also betting will see a much higher up-tempo tilt than some might expect. Utah after a bit of a slump have really picked up their efforts of late, and have taken 3 straight wins. Note: UTAH is 8-1 OVER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 237.5 ppg scored.

Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games as a road underdog. Over is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

 The over is 8-1 L/9 games in this series with a combined average of  (226.9 ppg ) going on the board and my projections estimate a similar output giving us value on this light totals number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 29-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Dallas behind their 3rd rank ppg defense and 28th ranked pace and 25th ranked offense, obviously depend on top tier conservative transitional hoops for their successes. Nothing will change tonight against a Detroit side that averages just over 101 ppg on the road this season while ranking 29th in ppg offensive output. Advantage to the under. 

Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 10-2 in Mavericks last 12 games as a home favorite.

DALLAS is 10-0 UNDER L/10  in home games versus struggling  teams - shooting 43%  or less with a defense of 46% or worse - 2nd half of the season  with a combined average of 176.8 ppg scored.DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season with a combined averag eof 203.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 2041. ppg scored .DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Im betting the Suns explosive offense (ranked 3rd in the NBA) will be forced into opening up against a aggressive opponent playing at home. From there the Suns will force the speed of the game  upward behind the 9th ranked pace in the league. Over is 6-0 in Suns last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record like the 76ers. Over is 5-1-1 in 76ers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

The Series  between the Suns and Sixers has been high scoring - going 7-0 OVER L7 with a combined average of (236.4) scored. 

PHOENIX is 33-17 OVER when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 245 points or more were scored are 66-33 OVER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 158-94 OVER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate.

Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.

Play OVER 

Orlando has really picked up their pace lately and are playing run and gun hoops as is evident by 8 of their L/9 games going over the total.  Today Im betting they force the Celtics to have to open up in a tilt Im betting eclipses the number. Over is 5-0-1 in Magic last 6 overall.

ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER after a game being out-rebounded by opponent by 15 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, in February games are 29-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play OVER 

Oklahoma City ranks last in the NBA in ppg offensive output and 17th in pace and 12th in ppg defense while their opponents Dallas rank 25th in ppg offense and 3rd in ppg defense behind 27th ranked pace. According to the data and style of play both teams initiate its obvious that this generally would be a lower scoring affair, which has me leaning strongly to the under based on my own projections which estimate a combined score that sits closer to 206 , which is a full possession advantage. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-5 UNDER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game this season with a combined average of 201.9 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 18-6 UNDER  in home games this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides are off big run and gun DD wins vs top tier sides , as Minnesota flattened Utah and Denver smashed the defending champion Bucks  and now Im betting on a regression on offense in a natural letdown situation. This will effect the combined score which favors the under. 

Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 road games. Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA /DENVER) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 22-3 UNDER L/5 seasons last 26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the UNDER

Houston as this season has progressed  has turned into a run and gun type team that plays little or no defense ranking 1st in pace and 30th in ppg allowed . Tonight against a top tier opponent Im betting they leave everything on the floor as they are expected to lose anyway vs Golden State. This Im betting sees a very uptempo game and  alot of offensive fireworks and a combined score that eclipses this total. 

HOUSTON is 13-3 OVER versus below average  foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

Over is 12-2 in Rockets last 14 games as a home underdog. Over is 13-3 in Rockets last 16 home games

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 26-3 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 240.3 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and 1st in ppg allowed and rank 12th in pace. At home they are almost always able to dictate the tempo of a game and nothing will change tonight against a  offensively aggressive Minnesota side that is  ranked 18th in offensive rating and 10th in overall defensive rating.  

Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

GOLDEN STATE home games this season have seen a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 16-3 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 205.4 ppg scored this season.GOLDEN STATE is 17-6 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.4 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with the combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA L/155   road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) has seen a combined average of 201.4 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 45-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Over is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 overall and Im betting on another fairly high scoring affair here today based on my projections which estimate a combined score in the low 220s. Over is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons  are 5-1 OVER  in the  Pistons last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-3-1 in Pistons last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

DENVER is 15-2 OVER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 233.3 ppg scored. Malone is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) versus pathetic teams - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. 

DETROIT is 14-6 OVER in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 222.3 ppg scored, 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are  29-6 L/5 over for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 233.6 ppg scored. 

Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

Utah played last night in a very physical grinding game against the Warriors losing 94-92 and will be on tired legs tonight and not prepared to run and will once again formulate a tough defensive transitional game plan vs a dangerous opponent. Meanwhile, the Suns behind the 1st ranked defensive rating in the league, will once again be prepared to grind their opponents down, in what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair.

Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 overall.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH/ PHOENIX) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 25-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 44-17UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA team (PHOENIX) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 43-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix.

Under is 17-7 in Suns last 24 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play UNDER

These teams in their previous few meetings have combined for some very high scores, but the Jazz and their hosts current form suggests a ,ore conservative transitional affair . When  considering the type of  defensive hoops the Warriors  (No 1 ppg allowed) have embraced  this totals offering give us value on an under wager tonight as my projections estimate a combined score that fails to eclipse the number . GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE  18 games this season  when playing against a team with a winning record has seen a combined average of 215.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 UNDER after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE  in 23 games  as a home favorite this season have seen a combined average of 212.2 ppg scored.

Golden State ranks 11th in pace and Utah ranks 15th in pace. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH/GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im not expecting this combined score to eclipse the total. Under is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games as a road underdog and are  10-4-1 in Nets last 15 games as an underdog. Meanwhile,  the Under is 23-9 in Timberwolves last 32 games as a home favorite and when they are well rested with 3 or more days rest like they have tonight are 7-3 UNDER. 

NBA BROOKLYN is 13-0 UNDER  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games are 38-17 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Celtics enter this tilt with a  3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 games overall and  are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games as well as 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Celtics have also been negative output bets in their L/6 at home vs below .500 opposition failing to cover 5 of their L/6 attempts. Meanwhile, the Blazers have won and covered 4 of their L/6 and are playing mostly competitive hoops. and must not be underestimated as underdogs. Key : Center Jusuf Nurkic, who has recorded three successive double-doubles will be key to the Blazers ability to compete here in revenge mode for a loss to the Celtics earlier this season.

NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - a struggling  offensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 54-92 L/26 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Trail Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Indiana Pacers rank 18th in offensive ppg output in the league and 23rd in pace  are on tired legs after playing last night  in LA and will be curtailed as well by a staunch Golden State D that ranks 1st in the league in ppg allowed and 1st in defensive rating behind 12 ranked pace. Im betting on the Pacers playing a conservative type of transitional ball and for the Warriors in their usual manner to control tempo the other way which Im projecting results in a fairly low scoring affair. 

INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER  as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored.  Carlisle is 17-6 UNDER as an underdog as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

GOLDEN STATE is 15-7 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE is 12-2 UNDER versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or more this season with a combined average of 202.8 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting the Pistons will score above the linesmakers projections today and that the Suns will be forced to open up in a game that eclipses the offered total. Over is 9-4 in Suns last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Over is 3-0-1 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  in home games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 227.8 ppg scored.

PHOENIX is 32-18 OVER in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.1 ppg scored in this 50 games. 

NBA  teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 71-38 OVER L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New Orleans took a 123-104 win vs the Clippers back in late November and Im betting a similar type of pace and a combined score that eclipses this offered total. New Orleans has scored more than 100 points in 12 straight games in 14 of their L/15 and Im betting that constant will once again come to fruition, and the Clippers in revenge mode, will have to up their pace or be blown off the court once again which will result in faster game than expected by the pundits .  

NEW ORLEANS is 14-2 OVER in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 237.9 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus struggling  offensive teams - scoring 108  or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.2 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in January games are 52-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. ( New Orleans won 128-125 last time out).

Play OVER