I know alot has been made of how the Bengals have won 3 straight meetings vs the Chiefs. But now Im betting on a huge redemption minded performance from the KC here in Sundays play off game. Note:  Chiefs HC Andy Reid’  in games with triple revenge-exact is 7-1 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS at home off a win. I know superstar quarterback Mahomes has  suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he practiced this week without a hitch and Im betting his injury is being exaggerated.

A key factor here today for Burrows and company is a banged up offensive line, and could be without three starting offensive linemen . All and all Im betting home field advantage and Mahomes inexplicable need to get a win here will be the difference maker.

Reid is 14-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-25 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC to cover 

I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship  play off game.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.  

 KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. 

Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER  L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

These sides the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are  very evenly, matched  but Im betting the difference maker will be the 49ers Niners’  PK Robbie Gould, who has made all 67 of his career playoff kicks, including 38  consecutive extra-point attempts including  29 FGs for a perfect 100% conversion rate. Add in the Niners  protracted play off experience, and home field advantage is in my betting mind negated. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 11-1 ATS  in January games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on 49ers to cover 

 Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has won his first six starts and deserves respect here in a place where the 49ers have dominated opponents. The 49ers at Levi’s Stadium,  have victories in  13 of their last 14 and covered 12 of those games. With an 11 game current overall win streak that highlights their effectiveness Im betting the hosts  get the job done again behind a top tier D, and a running back in  RB Christian McCaffrey who matches up well  against the Cowboys strong D. I know DakPrescott looked good against the horrid D, of the Bucs lat week, but this Sunday night Im betting his life will be made miserable by aggressive pass rushing group .SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

Cincinnati is just 1-6 In ITS  against fellow playoff sides  this season and have lost the stats battles in 3 straight games by an average o 139 ypg. I don't care how many good ATS trends support the Bengals taking points it just not justify their current play and in my betting opinion are over rated at less than a TD dogs.  Note: The Bengals  banged up offensive line is down to just tow reg starters. Look for Burrows to spend a great deal of time scrambling around today and will land  on his back more than once. On the flip side Buffalos Josh allan after suffering with a sore wrist looks to be back on form and will primed for a big day. 

 McDermott is 11-1 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 62-108 L/29 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%  or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Giants are being under rated in this tilt considering they  11-2 ATS underdog with HC  Brian Daboll at the helm.  Also it must be noted that the Gmen were involved in  14 one-score tilts this season  cashing at a  12-1-1 ATS rate proving how highly competitive they were behind a never say die attitude and top tier chemistry.  I know the Giants lost both times to the Eagles this season, but now in double revenge the Giants are the right side at this line  offering. 

NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

The Jaguars were trailing 27-0 before making. a miraculous comeback last time out,vs the Chargers . However, now Im betting the Jags will be in a huge  a huge emotional letdown spot against a rested Kansas City side that will be ready to put the pedal to the metal and not let  off the accelerator til the very end.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons. Note:

HC Reid’s 19 career postseason victories have been by double-digit margins. Rinse and repeat in play this week vs the Jags.

Play on the Chiefs to cover 

In Tom Brady Brady we trust . The GOAT  is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 SU in his career versus  the  Dallas Cowboys .  I will  happily take the points here with one of the great all time QBs in  NFL history in a key play off game. Hey don't get me wrong Dak Prescott is a excellent QB as well but he has a propensity for turning the ball over via interceptions. 

DALLAS is 5-15 ATS in road games in January games since 1992. 

Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a natural surface. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Baltimore ranks third in scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game) and tied for ninth in total defense (324.3 yards allowed per game). I know alot of focus is on whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play, but Im betting the difference maker here comes via the Ravens ability to play physical ball against a team that has played every game like its their last. Which for me is not a good omen going into the play offs, as exhaustion and regression could easily rare their ugly heads at the worst possible time. Remember Baltimore beat Cincinnati in week 5 and in my opinion valid underdogs in this tilt. 

BALTIMORE is 31-15 ATS l/36 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better, ) Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of BALTIMORE.

CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion run for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

 The Bills’   this past season had some problems with the  Dolphins  Closing as 4.5-point favorites in the first meeting, they were defeated by a 21-19. than as  7-point chalk the second time round and barely squeezed   by in that matchup be a 32-29 score. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as I have this tilt projected at less than a TD for Buffalo thus giving us value with an underdog take with the Fins.Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the Dolphins to cover 

Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible.  MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER   in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games

BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.

Play UNDER 

  The 49ers opened the season 3-4 and trailed the Seahawks in the division race before running off 10 consecutive victories. The 49ers look like the right side, but after playing very hard physical ball for an extended period of time  they could easily hit a wall regress at the worst possible time. Something Im betting on here in this play off tilt. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 28-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover

Despite of Green Bays big win vs Minnesota last week all was not perfect as they were out yarded in that tilt by a  346-315 deficit and have lost the stats battles in 6 of their L/7, so not all is good in Cheesville. Meanwhile, Detroit is 9-0 ATS L/9 division tilts, and need a win to make the play offs and some added luck of Seattle losing. The Lions will be motivated and their recent history against division tilts has me on the take this Sunday. 

DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  versus sub par rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - off a win against a division rival, in January games. are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road teams (DETROIT) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-41 ATS L/39 seasons for 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions 

I know Tampa Bay has some how found a way to make the play offs after garnering two straight wins but the coaching staff said they expect all their starters  to play this week as they try to continue to gain momentum in to the play offs because they have some issues that still need ironing out. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight games, and look like they are just going through the motions and dont really deserve respect as favs even at home. 

ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

TAMPA BAY is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons and 2-0 in their L/2 visits to Atlanta. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Cincinnati had their game suspended last time out because of a sudden heart attack of one of  their opponents players (Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.)  It was a worrisome situation that Im betting is still playing the minds of the Bengals. Despite of this being the Bengals home finale Im betting Baltimore surging defensive play will keep them in this tilt for a cover. Note: Baltimore stoppers have allowed an average  of 292 yards per game over the L/2 plus months. The Ravens are also very competitive side as is evident by their   last six games being  decided by an average of just 4 ppg.  

CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season . 

Harbaugh is 33-18 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better as the coach of BALTIMORE

NFL Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore Ravens to cover 

After the collective trauma the Bills suffered last week when their team mate Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest it wont  be a easy thing to get over . Needless to say  the lingering effects of that negative event could sway their mental cogdoscence this week making them vulnerable vs a  very hungry Pats team that is in desperation mode as they  need a victory here for a post season appearance.  The Pats also have the added incentive of revenge for a loss they suffered to the Bills earlier this season. 

NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS  in road games revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . (Buffalo beat the Pats 24-10 back in December) 

HC Bill Belichick in his last game of the season in his career with New England is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New England to cover 

Chicago looks to be just going though the motions and are playing ugly ball losing their L/5 games by DDs. Here today vs a angry Vikings side looking to rebound from a beating at Green Bay will be primed for a Bounce back  before the play offs start. Vikings are 46-22 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss.

Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Bears are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC North. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Jacksonville has really played well of late and are off a couple of convincing wins, and 4 straight overall However is must be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10  after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points . With the AFC title at hand here, Im betting we see a grinding affair that will not easily be won by either side making getting points the strongest option here tonight. Tennessee has won their L/2 visits to Jacksonville. 

Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Jaguars are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Chiefs main concern this week is staying healthy for the play offs while Vegas who have been competitive for most of this season, will be primed to pull. off an upset. Considering the Raiders QB  Jarrett Stidham carved up one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in a 37-34 loss vs SF Im betting we have what Im betting is a live dog to back . 

Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

 CITY is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS  against conference opponents this season.

McDaniels is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LAS VEGAS.

Play on Raiders to cover

Pittsburgh is 6-2 when when JJ Watts their  outside linebacker plays and Im betting he will ignite this Steelers team again vs a Baltimore side that clinched a play of spot last week and could easily find themselves in a emotional let down spot vs a hard working group that believe it or not still have a chance at a play off spot. The Steelers have been victorious in four of their last five trips to the gridiron  with their only loss coming by two points against these same Ravens back in  Week 14.

BALTIMORE is 7-18 ATS   L/25 in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game. 

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU L/5 vs Baltimore and 2-0 L/2 here in Baltimore. 

NFL Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Packers enter Week 17 on a three-game winning streak, and Im betting they make 4 in row here today behind the streakiest  QB  I ever seen (Aaron Rodgers)  . Minnesotas inability to protect their own QB (Cousins) will be key here, as they have allowed 11 sacks in their in their L/2 games. 

Rogers is 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career  and has cashed all 4 of his opportunities this season . 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover 

Seahawks are struggling and have lost 3 straight and   off two  losses as pups but the good news comes via their  10-0 ATS mark  as hosts when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Also  Pete Carroll,  is 8-1 SU   at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a sub .500 record . Carroll is 20-9 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.

The Seahawks go against a NY Jets that has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and no matter who starts at QB for them Wilson or White they just dont look cohesive as is evident by a 4 straight losses, and a overall offense that produces just 19.8 ppg on the road this season they continue to be fade material. 

NY JETS are 4-16 ATS   in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Seattle to cover 

 Jacksonville has been playing well of late ,but being this big a fav on the road is not something I would support considering the Jags have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road favs. Meanwhile, the Texans come here looking confident after a upset win last week vs Tennessee for their third straight cover . 

Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU   against opposition coming off a SU underdog win. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

 HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons and is 2-0 SU here at home. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 20-50 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston Texans to cover 

The Colts have now had two straight 33-point meltdowns: one last week when Minnesota overcame a 33-point halftime deficit to defeat Indianapolis in a spectacular comeback victory the other when they were outscored 33-0 in in the final quarter a tight game at Dallas the week before . Needless to say this is a red faced group that will play this game with nothing to lose making them a dangerous foe. INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

NFLHome underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 60-27 L/39 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colts to cover

Tampa Bay is not a championship calibre team and they proved it last week by blowing a 17 point lead to the Bengals and then making blunder after blunder. in a ugly DD loss. Not even the great Tom Brady has looked all that good, as father time remains undefeated and has  slowed the future HOF down considerably. On the flip-side, Arizona has nothing to play for , but beating the Bucs would help many on this team sleep better. With that said, TB still in play off position, but still not the kind of team you want to back as a TD or more road fav as they are just 1-8 ATS L/9 as chalk and have failed to cash 6 of their L/7 vs NFC West  opposition. Add to that the Cards are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 2 point or more home pups. 

AMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season.

ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

 Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less  rushing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 10-1 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 16-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

 Kansas City clinched  the AFC West last week, and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here this week vs a  Seattle side Im sure they are overlooking. As the season winds down the Chiefs could start to rest some of their walking wounded  more often and with Seattle still with an outside chance to make the playoffs I expect Pete Carrolls Seahawks  will play hard here  and get us the cover. . 

Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992.

Carroll is 19-6 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

KANSAS CITY is 4-21 ATS  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992.

KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS  after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 season

Carroll is 19-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE

Carroll is 12-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE

Reid is 2-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 18-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate.

Seahawks to cover 

Cleveland has Watkins back under center-  Browns are 2-1 since Watson returned. He completed 18 of 28 passes for 161 yards in a 13-3 victory against Baltimore in his home debut in nasty conditions last Saturday. With this Saturday includes a 48 percent chance of snow, winds gusting beyond 30 mph and a high temperature of 13 degrees before factoring wind chill its going to be a ugly weather situation one that does not favor the dome side New Orleans.

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win which was the case last time out. 

Browns are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 8-1 L/9 vs AFC South opposition. 

Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-24 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS ( after playing a game at home this season.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 38-9 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Browns to cover 

Last week the Vikings garnered a huge come from behind win scoring 33 points to outlast the Indianapolis Colts by a 39-36 count. That clinched their division and play off birth and now Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation that could easily effect them here today vs a hungry NY Giants side. It must also be noted that Vikings have been out yarded in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron and have been involved in 10 one score games this season. I know the Gmen may not inspire us, but they have cashed 7 of 9 as dogs, under HC Dabol and are viable investment options in this spot play. .

Vikings are 1-6 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 16-37 L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Giants to cover

 These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks  have played scorched earth all out  offensive slugfests in recent meetings going  5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined  average score  of 62.6  ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the  2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively  (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER  when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.  

Play on the OVER 

 New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption  against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run.

Patriots are  6-1  ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England.

NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS  as a home underdog since 1992.

Play on Patriots to cover 

The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind  ,QB Trevor Lawrence  who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage,  (14 TDs, 1 int)   going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover. 

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs  to a  17-16 victory over the Raiders.  However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic  Lambeau Field  Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents  and   when he is  coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career . 

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF. 

Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.

Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on Green Packers to cover

Tom Brady has a big chip on his shoulder right now after a bad game against the SF 49ers last time out.   It  was embarrassing as it was   third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career.   But now with a week of rest (bye week) you can bet the GOAT will be out looking hard for redemption. I know the Bengals have won and covered 5 straight, but looking maybe a little bit to over confident.  note:  Brady  11-1 ATS in  career as a home underdog and 10-0 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 7 points. Advantage Brady and company. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 38-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Chargers are in a good mood after an upset, of the Dolphins last week. But now after that emotional win will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable to a down effort vs a side that is having some problems and now with a new HC.  Note:NFL .500 or greater NFL sides like Tennessee that are 0-3 SUATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is coming off a SU/ATS win are 8-1 SU and 16-3 ATS taking on a side  off a SU underdog win.  We also  know the Titans are a run first team , and here against the worst run D, in the league allowing an average of 5.4 rpc , trouble in brewing for the favs. Titans are 6-1 ATS L/7 vs West.LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons

LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

There was a time earlier this season when I gave hope for Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence,. but now my hopimism has turned positive  as is evident by his 111.7 passer rating over his L/3 outings.  I know he goes against a red hot Dallas side, but this Jags teams looks to have come to life and will highly motivated to steal a win here and more importantly as far as we are concerned get us the cover. In the only game here against Dallas in the history of the Jags, they are 1-0 SU/ATS. 

NFL Home teams (JACKSONVILLE) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 31-9 L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. 

Play on the over 

My power ranking suggest Detroit is the better side and currently in better form. than their opponents the NY Jets. The Lions are 6-0 SU L/6 overall while the NYJ have 4 of their L/6 and have overall shown long droughts of not being able to put points on the board averaging just 20.3 ppg  on the season. Advantage Lions. 

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 season,DETROIT is 12-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. 

Play on Detroit to cover

The young men from Florida wont get much of welcome in the cold climate of Northern NY state this Saturday night against a revenge minded Bills who have redemption in mind for a loss they suffered in Miami earlier this season. I know the Bills already took a 16 point deficit win in the first revenge go around, but believe  me , teams like this double down this time of year and really come out to play. With this being the Dolphins 3rd straight road Im betting their a bit exhausted . Note: The Fins are 1-6 ATS L/7 in their 3rd game on the road. 

MIAMI is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better) in the second half of the season. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Colts have not looked good lately and got beat up badly last time out vs Dallas, losing 54-19 allowing 33 points in the last quarter wow. Combination of bad luck and just plain ugly football has them embarrassed and out looking for immediate redemption. Pros dont like to be embarrassed like that and you can bet they will play like their proverbial hair is on fire. 
Note: Indianapolis is 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, 

Colts are 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC North opposition. Considering how inconsistent the Vikings have been this year wont be surprised if they have a down game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 season

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Indy to cover 

 QB  Brock Purdy, and his 134 passer rating were impressive last week to say the least in the 49ers DD win vs the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs .  Meanwhile Seattle was taken out by a play off hungry Panthers last week by a  30-24 count, and failed to cover for the 4th straight time.   Despite of the two opposite trajectories these teams are on, Im betting the old ball coach Pete Carroll has some magic he can deploy in desperation mode as the Seahawks still have play off hopes.  With Star Deebo Samuel out with a sprained ankle and MCL and a expected regression from media darling Purdy and a desperation effort from the home side should help as cash a underdog ticket. ,Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 9-2-1 ATS in Thursday nights while the 49ers have failed to cover in three straight Thursday prime time tilts.  

SAN FRANCISCO is 13-28 ATS L/41 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game . 

SEATTLE is 41-18 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. . Carroll is 6-0 ATS   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 22-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover  

 New England  well rested after a bye week is one game ahead of the Jets  and currently sits as the  No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race and come into tilt in need of wins to stay relevant for post season action, while the Cardinals are pretty much toast when it comes to making the play offs , unless they can string together wins here to finish of the season. Im betting both sides will be motivated, but the coaching edge , resides with Belichick  going against Kingsbury.  Arizonas coach   Kingsbury is just  5-15 ATS at home  when his side is s 2 point or less underdog. and his side is  0-3 SUATS the last three in Monday night prime time tilts .  Meanwhile,  Bill Belichick is 22-9 SU/ATS against NFC West opposition sides  in his NFL career,  and 13-0 SU if that team is coming off a loss like Arizona is.  Also the Pats despite of coming off a loss are a resilient bunch as is evident by their  6-0 ATS record off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and are also  7-0 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS   in home games against AFC East division opponents.ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS)in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Pats are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Arizona.

Play on New England Pats to cover 

49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury last time out and now a backup QB will go to the field ie probably Purdy who took over from Jimmy last time . With Tom Brady and company out seeking revenge for a previous loss to SF Im betting the Bucks have edge . Brady is 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and his 24-6 overall ATS record when getting points. Considering San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home favorite  of less than four points its an easy decision for me to back the future HOF  QB to come up big here as the Bucs make a run at post season action .  I know SF is ranked in No.1 in D, but Tampa Bay's defense is  also of the top tier variety  as the  Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in total defense (313.8), fifth in scoring defense (18.3) and fourth in sacks (38).

Tampa Bay to cover 

Seattle had to come from behind and take a  late win vs the banged-up  Rams in Week 13. Seattle is getting far to much respect from the lines-makers this week, despite of playing a sub par side. We have to remember  Carolina (4-8),  and are off a bye week so their well rested and believe it or or not sill in a playoff position in the slumping NFC South. With that said the Panthers still have plenty to play  as they are  only two games out of first place.

Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Meanwhile, Seahawks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - excellent passing team (7.3 or less PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina Panthers to cover 

Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th  of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just  8-1 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group,  as as a result of this are  9-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs  have gone under in their following game in  all 6 times this has happened this season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3  or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play UNDER

Both teams were blown out last week, but one of these teams is more motivated than the other as ,  Jacksonville (4-8) has one shot to get it self into contention for post season action. It either wins this week or it will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year since advancing to the AFC finals in 2017, when it held a fourth-quarter lead before losing in New England. Motivational factors support taking the points here with the Jags. 

Pederson is 14-3 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season.  TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight game

NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-17 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries  are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th.

Game 13 teams like the Rams  with a win %   of .250 or less, when the  Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in   21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  33.8 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. 

Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. 

Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts,   

NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Cowboys are running hot, but Im going to take a contrarian stance here tonight and back Indianapolis to cover the line. I know the Colts disappointed last week in a loss as favorites but they have proven resilient in the past off that type of loss winning 11 of their L/13 opportunities for redemption. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas’ owns a sub par  9-17 SU and 7-17-2 ATS record against non-division opposition in prime time Sunday Night affairs. 

The Cowboys own a 0-5 ATS record as  chalk of more than 7 points when coming off a Thanksgiving day game .  Meanwhile, the The Colts  owns a powerful  8-1 ATS records  before their Bye week, which is up next a are 7-1 ATS   in non-conference road tilts . 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Chiefs have big time revenge on board for their AFC championship game loss  last season,  to this Cincinnati side.  Im betting they get their redemption  behind the arm and legs of super star QB Patrick Mahomes who is  26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. 

 Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued  home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13.

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams to cover 

 The Jets have pivoted from  QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum.  It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3  and 101.1 in his first and only other start  last season.  Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the  30 point -plateau  and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB  in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. 

NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Jets to cover

 BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. 

New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager.  They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production  last week vs the  Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg.

Play UNDER

Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge.  The Steelers are  8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups  versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts  are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents.

The  Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. 

Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition

Play Pittsburgh to cover . 

The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind  in the 4th quarter last week to garner a  17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that  QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. 

It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. 

NY JETS are 19-34 ATS  off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. 

Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel  for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games.

MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS  in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER  in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall.

DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with  Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However,  both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting  that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be  the Chargers  inconsistent  offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a  rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. 

Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC.

LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board.

Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Game 15  or less  road chalk of  6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more   have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. 

NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone  16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog .  

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration  as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG  ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly  1-9  in the stats battles this  campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of  QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. 

Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. 

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover 

NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are  6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. 

Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.

NY JETS are 37-21 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

 Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very  efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role.

Visitor is  10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is  8-3 non-division road dogs of  6 points or less.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS  after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.

Campbell is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York.

Play on Lions to cover

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a  go against 92% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate.

Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.

Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27  ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . 

Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Texans to cover 

According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The  inconsistent Saints  played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a  offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam

PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Saints to cover 

Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . 

 Miami is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS  in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week  and  are capable of competing  here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after  QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games .  

Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

Last time out future HOF  QB  Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game.  I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady  is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. 

Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes  against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay to cover 

The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU  L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here.

NEW ORLEANS is also just  9-22 ATS  L/31  against AFC North division opponents .

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, 

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts.

Play on Baltimore to win /cover

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). 

TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS   in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. 

After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay  is 10-5 ATS as a  road dog and  10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The  Rams’  also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. 

Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. 
However with that said it must be noted QB Rodgers is 40-15 SU in his career in October, tilts including 8-1 ATS as a pup of 2 points or more. The inconsistent star seems to stand tall in these types of games , however, as is evident by his  5-0 SU /ATS mark in tilts he enters with a sub .500 record when going against top tier competition with a  .750 or better win percentage. When the chips are down Im betting the Packers find a way to be competitive in this nationally televised prime time event. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Green Bay to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on  their  24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco  in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort.

McVay is 10-2 ATS  after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play.

NFL  Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Take the points with Carolina to cover 

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age?  Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect .  The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. .  Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is  10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record  and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and  0-5-1 ATS  in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said  I will  back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3  or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover

KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the  NFL  QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense  they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 

49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff  clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

Giants Im betting will  continue their  upward momentum  on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars.  The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue.  

NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS   in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Jaguars 0-18 SU  in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

 QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is  15-2-1 ATS in his  career  as an underdog vs opposition  coming off consecutive victories  like the Chargers , including a stellar  8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week ,  but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt.  I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today.

Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chiefs to cover 

Arizona is more than capable of  taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on  QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. 

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

The visiting team is  15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting  Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB ,  where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is  12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS  after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. 

NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for.

Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS  L/10 NFC East, including  0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is  5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. 

Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS  in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are  in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB  Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and  Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook  to  explode on the Miami defense  and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. 

MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

QB Justin Fields just has not shown much at this level and all the excuses in the world or pundits calling for new coordinators will not do it in my humble opinion. The Bears 32nd ranked passing offense is in a shambles and the offense as a whole is in the same boat thanks to their woeful passing attack. Meanwhile, Washington will be motivated to bounce back after blowing chance to beat Tennessee last week . QB Wentz screwed up allowing an interception on the 1 yard line , and it was horrifying to watch. Now with PTSD firmly in place, I look for the shell shocked Commodores to bounce back and get rid of their MIA status. 

All games played at CHICAGO since 1992-WASHINGTON is 6-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO .WASHINGTON is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO .

NFL team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just 13-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to win 

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards  signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. 

Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS   vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

 Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! 

DETROIT is 3-12 ATS  in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. 

NFL  team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover 

Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. 

Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. 

In the previous 7 international  games that have featured favs  of more than 7 points  the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. 

Play on Green Packers to cover 

Colts star   RB Jonathan Taylor is not 100% if he plays tonight as his ankle continues to give him trouble. With the Colts  key offensive juggernaut not at his zenith their offense should continue to struggle. Note: Colts offense has averaged   an NFL-low 14.3 points per game and with senior citizen  QB Matt Ryan on his last legs the Colts offense is not going to operate well enough to generate a decent output . On the flip-side Broncos  qb Wilson has gone 20-3 in home primetime games and will be out to show case his top shelf grit this Thursday night and finally get consistent red zone TD conversions.  

The Colts are ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA this year.

Broncos are 4-0 SU/ATS vs non division opposition on Thursday nights and are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 60-107 L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver