Im going to back the GOAT in this  Super Bowl  matchup,  In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his only  defeats coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.  In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG. Also Vic Fangio-coached defenses have previously faced Patrick Mahomes eight times. They are 0-8 SU,vs the Chiefs..

Kansas City 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games against elite rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

  Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season like the Eagles are also 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS  in the last 13 Super Bowls!

Play on the Chiefs to cover

Im betting this is going to be Super Bowl that starts slowly from a offensive perspective and predict a first quarter that will be tightly played .This will see a much lower scorin game than the linesmkaers might expect. 

 Kansas City is on a 13-1-1 Under  against top tier rushing attacks averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

Chiefs HC  Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under run vs. strong offenses scoring 27 PPG or more per game. 

Philadelphia is 21-12-1 Under the total in its last 34 playoff games.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. are 57-28 UNDER since 2015 with the average combined score clicking in at 42.8 ppg,

Key here is the QB matchup and the superior D of the Chiefs. 

In post season games , Mahomes is 7-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by an average  5.9 PPG. At home in cold weather events like this one ,In matchups in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 23-2 SU in his career and has won 20 straight tilts. On the flipside, Buffalos  QB Josh Allen is 0-3 SU and ATS vs. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and after last weeks underdog win it must be noted that Allen has never won consecutive games SU if both games saw his tream listed as an underdog which spans 15  times  as a pup in consecutive games. Allan Im betting struggles against the very physical Chiefs D in this away tilt. 

Play on the Chiefs to cover

 The Commanders have had a nice run and upset of the Lions last week, but they will be playing their fourth consecutive road  game and will be in a emotional letdown state after their huge victory making them very vulnerable .Road teams like Washington  that avoid turnovers (1.0  or less  per game) have not been good bets  in post season play recently , recording a  4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS record  since 2004. NFL Home sides allowing 5.5 or less yards per pass attempt have been top tier  bets in the playoffs, going 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS for. a 60% conversion rate dating back 23 years. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni  is 21-2 SU and 16-6 ATS  as a single-digit home favorite since 2021.  Also rookie QBS like Commanders  Daniels in the playoffs   are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in Conference Championship games.

Play on the Eagles to cover

Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against todays play off opposition the  Bills. Its now very interesting to note that when Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is a money making  17-3 ATS for his backers in his career. In the 6 games  he  has opened as a pup and ended up closing as chalk , he is a perfect  6-0 SU and ATS , covering the spread by an average of just a little over   9 points per game. Jackson is also  20-5 SU in his career in  night games.  Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.

NFL Road teams like Baltimore - excellent offensive team (370 YPG or more ) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS since the 2015 season .

Play on Baltimore to cover

I know the Eagles are red hot and have won 3 straight SU  and against the  spread entering this tilt, while allowing just 13 points or less in those tilts. But it must be noted that  dating back to the 2005 season eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight have lost 6 of 8 SU   and  are just 1-7-1 ATS in their post season games.  Also Rams QB Stafford is  3-0 SU as an underdog this season in December, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups and must not be under estimated in his ability to lead his team to a a cover here and possibly a SU upset. Hes won 5 times SU as a underdog this season. Throw in the fact the  Super Bowl-winning QBs sine the 2003 campaign  are 62-25-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs and you have a situation that in my opinion favors the underdog. With the Rams HC MacVay a king on  short rest, as is evident by  have cashed 7 of his L/8 opportunities. With Stafford under center, McVay is  also a bankroll expanding 8-2 ATS with short prep for his backers.

LA Rams in away or neutral games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or moreyards/play are 7-0 ATS L/7 opportunities. Sean McVay in away or neutral games revenging a same season loss against opponent is 8-1 ATS .

Play on the Rams to cover

When the Lions are on extended rest with HC  Dan Campbell, they are 12-4-1 SU and 13-4 ATS and when they are favorites on extended rest, they are  a bankroll expanding  11-2 SU/ATS. So Im betting the rust helps the Lions It must also be noted that Detroits QB when playing in dome games  – 44-21-1 ATS (34-13-1 ATS with Lions) and this season has lefted a scorched earth for his opponents recording  30 TD, 12 INT, 71.6% comp pct, 8.5 Y/A and his Career owns a 118 TD, 42 INT, 68.4% comp pct, 7.7 Y/A mark. Note: Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when going against  sides like Washington scoring 24 PPG on average  or more on the season. 

Also I know rookie Jayden Daniels has looked good during his first NFL campaign , but here in this unfriendly dome environment the pressure Im betting will get to him and his over achieving side kicks. Yes, the Lions struggled a bit down the stretch with their D, but  e struggled down they still  ranked second in third-down conversion rate against,  ranking second on fourth down, and seventh in red-zone TD% against. they should not be disrespected. 

Play on the Lions 

The Chiefs came out on top 27-19 when the teams met at this venue in Week 16 and Im betting the Texans stay within the margin here for a cover. KC has had issues covering all season long, and with Patrick Mahomes and many of the Chiefs' best players entering the matchup on a two-week break rust could easily end up being an issue.

Visiting Sides in the Divisional round as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have have covered at a 61% clip.   Also Home teams scoring an average of  less than 27 points are generally substandard bets cashing just 17% of the time  in the divisional round. Kansas City's regular season offensive output rings in at 22.6 ppg and against a strong Texas D, will Im betting have issues eclipsing their reg season output in this contest, making the Texans a viable wagering option getting points. Note: KC covered just 3 of their 8 home games this season, and from a league wide perspective, Texans  DeMeco Ryans in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities.

NFLHome favorites like KC- after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are just 3-21 ATS since 2015. Also NFL Road underdogs or pick like the Texans - after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after a loss by 28 or more points are just 3-22 ATS dating back to the 1983 campaign.

Play on Texans to cover

Right off the bat Ill say that Im betting on positive regression from Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who is off a ugly performance vs the Lions where he went 18-of-41  for just 166 yards .Prior to that down effort , Darnold had an 18/2 TD/INT ratio over his previous seven games,  and is more than capable of getting back into a groove tonight in Glendale. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Rams top gun QB Stafford owned a 71% completion rate with a 17/4 TD/INT this season and  less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket . His ability for  quick accurate  releases from this big time slinger will negate the Vikings blitz heavy pass rush. Both teams have the offensive weapons to make this a back and forth event that easily eclipses this total. Note: in the earlier meeting this season between these sides that ended a 30-20 final score, Stafford recorded four touchdown passes and a 73.53% completion rate .Minnesota games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER L/13 and have seen a combined average score of 50.6 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play over

  This No.3 vs No.6 NFL  matchup has seen some unexpected results  with away  teams  winning 14 of the L/22 matchups  SU while covering at a 17-5 ATS clip for a 77% conversion rate for their betting backers.·  Underdogs are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 NFC Wild Card games. Home sides in the Wildcard on Sundays like the Bucs are 18-21 SU and 13-25-1 ATS.Sunday NFC road teams have been a viable investment option recording a  18-6-1 ATS  mark in the last 25.  With that said, I like QB Jay Daniels and comopany to make this game a upset possibility and more importantly to get us the cover. 

Play on Washington to cover

Packers and Eagles faced off in Week 1in Brazil, with the Eagles winning by a  34-29 count.Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has gone against HC Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and  he looked explosive in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers. Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts respectively in the those  three tilts and another big output Im betting goes down today which will directly effect this score to go over the offered total.  Im also betting the QB Love will help his team put enough scores on the board to get us to the promised land. Note:Green Bay games against NFC East division opponents have seen a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.Green Bay games revenging a loss against opponent havw seen a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.Green Bay games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better are 6-0 OVER ) in the second half of the season have seen a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. Philadelphia games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 8-1 OVER L/9 with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

The Bills D struggled against play off teams this season and they  were  just 2-3 against teams that have reached the post season,  allowing 108 more yards per game against playoff teams vs. non-playoff sides. Buffalo’s defense also allowed 33 points a contest and is their Achilles heal entering this play off game vs the Broncos. Im betting Denvers ability to slow super star QB Josh Allan becomes the key to them covering today. Home teams like the Bills  in  NFL playoffs with a line -7 to -9.5 are 12-25-1 ATS since 2011.

Broncos to cover

I know the Steelers looked pretty bad towards the end of this season, but they still must not be underestimated in one game take all scenario as DD dogs with HC Mike Tomlin at the helm. It must be noted that Steelers QB Russel Wilson  9-1 ATS as a underdog dog of more than six points in his career. and enters this tilt as a live dog on my humble opinion. Meanwhile, Baltimores QB Lamar Jackson in  his career  postseason games  has lost and failed to cover 4 of 6 tries ),  and has lost SU 4 of 6 in this series including a  1-4-1 ATS career mark. When Jackson is favored by  3 or more  points in his career, he is a sub .500  29-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs. Jackson has also been heralded as a top tier QB in night games winning 20 of 25 attempts but its important to point out that he 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs. 

From a historical perspective  the Ravens have had problems holding a lead vs the Steelers. Since 2020, the Ravens are 2-7 SU against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game.So with a DD number to back we have an option with the back door cover as a high possibility out come. 

This season, the Ravens ended with 132 penalties as a team, T-2nd most in the NFL and in a post season game that lack of discipline could be a game changer. 

The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS since 2015 in this series. 

Take the points with the Steelers 

It has not been a great year forTexans  sophomore QB Stroud and company. but it must be noted that they came in as Wild card dogs last seasons as well closing as a 2-pt home pups vs. the Browns and still found a way to win by a  45-14 count despite of being underestimated. Big games like this are usually decided by defenses, and the better D in this game in my humble opinion is the Texans. Hey we also cant forget how sub par the Chargers looked in the 2nd half of the season.NFL playoff home dogs are 24-10-1 ATS in their first postseason game.C.J. Stroud is 9-6 ATS as an underdog in his career. Texans get my support to cover. Also Road teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons like the Chargers  versus  a repeat playoff team from the prior season are  9-30 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2007 in wild card games.  From a league wide trends chart comes this one- NFL Road teams like the chargers - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 8+ games are 4-24 ATS since 1983.

Play on Houston to cover

The Vikings are off a hard fought game vs the Packers last week, and now will be in a emotional letdown situation at a bad time as they take on a HC Dan Campbell led Lions that are 9-0 SU as favorites in night games, winning by an average ppg diff of  9.2 PPG. Jared Goff has owned the  Vikings as QB of Detroit from a betting perspective , as is evident by a  7-0 ATS conversion rate , the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota dating back 20 seasons. NFL Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 - off a home win against a division rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better ) are 6-25 SU since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -6.9 ppg which qualifies on this ATS line.

Play on the Lions to cover

Yes, the Chiefs are resting key players this week, but this is a deep  Super Bowl squad with a top tier  HC with Andy Ried on the sidelines. It must be noted that since 2007, Andy Reid has closed as a double-digit underdog five times, and is a  perfect 5-0 ATS. Broncos enter this tilt with  extended rest after playing their last game on extended rest and this situation from a ATS perspective for these teams have only covered 16 of 43 tilts. 

Over the L/35 sesons a team with a win percentage of 70% or better as  underdog of 7.5 or more points in their 16th game or later of the regular season – and are dogs of more than 9 pts are a perfect  4-0 ATS. 

food for thought: Kansas City on the money line in games played on a grass field are 12-0 SU L/12 opportunities.

 Dating back to 2012, the Jets are  0-20 SU and 1-19 ATS in the game after facing the Bills which was the case last week. Since 2021 campaign, the Fins are  25-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season. Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets five times in his career and he is 5-0 SU. ( The Fins  may start QB Tyler Huntley to play vs. the Jets because of Tua Tagovailoa's hip injury) The Jets are 3-14 SU L/17 vs Miami. 

Analysis to follow -thank you for your patience 

This is HC Dan Quinn 's regular-season finale at the Cowboys and he says he won't be resting any player . Washington wont  take the Cowboys lightly as they were beaten by them earlier this season. I know many pundits believe that  Dallas after getting hammered by the Eagles last time out, will just go through the motions, but I highly doubt it as their egos are bruised and pros dont like to be humiliated, so look for them to fight hard here in what could be a back and forth game that handily eclipses the total.  

The L/3 most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this offered total with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Dallas is  16-1  Over in the last 17 home rematch games. Dallas is  12-3 to the OVER  L15 divisional home games.  Washington is 6-2 OVER  L8 vs .500  or  opposition.

Play over

NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off a win over AFC opp since 2016. Now in a huge letdown situation after their upset of Washington Im betting on major regression offensively. from the Giants, that will directly effect the combined score of this game to being a lower scoring sleep fest. With the Eagles resting key offensive stars Im betting we see a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the offered number.NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is  18-8 Under  as a single-digit underdog. NY Giants games in games where the line is +3 to -3  have gone under 8 straight times with a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored.

NFL  team like NYG against the total - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 5-29 UNDER since 1983.

Play under

Atlanta Im betting will have their  3rd straight strong offensive  output with new QB Michael Penix Jr under center . In his first two starts the Falcons have averaged 29 points per game and my projections estimate another huge output vs the worst D in the NFL. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Bryce Young needs to make some kind of impact before the season ends and Im betting he will be primed to perform behind a offense that is improving and becoming more viable. Everything points to a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NFC SOUTH division tilts like this  have cashed to the over 9 of the L/10 times with a combined  average of 55.9 combined ppg going on the board. Carolina has gone 12-4 OVER this season and  Atlanta  have gone 13-4-1 to the OVER  as division home chalk  to 2016 , including 7-1 OVER  as home favs of -3 plus points

Play over.

The Steelers had 520 total  yards and 7.9 yards per play in the first meeting.  while the Bengals complied  375 yards and 6.6 yards per play in a 43-38 slugfest. I know the weather conditions wont be ideal here this week, (cold but dry as NO precipitation is expected), but the Bengals can light up the scoreboard  in any environmental condition and the Steelers Im betting can score in bunches  against a sub average Bengals D.

Note: Steelers expected QB Russell Wilson has gone over in 7 straight January games. 

Bengals are 8-0 OVER  L8 vs  .600 or better  opposition and  3-0 OVER on Saturday .

 Home underdogs like the Steelers playing on Saturdays are  9-1-1 OVER  L/9 seasons with a Total  of 42  to 50  point range. 

Play over

The L/3 meetings in this series  have gone over the Total with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. With nice weather expected in Santa Clara tonight Im expecting for the conditions to favor an over wager cashing again. We know what Motown can do offensively and I still believe in the 49ers ability to get going especially with the ego bashing they have taken over the last half of this season. This is a great opportunity to compete and to that the Niners need to put points on the board. 

Detroit games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 5-0 OVER L/5 for a combined average of 69.6 ppg scored.Detroit games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER since 2023 with. combined average of 57.9 ppg scored.San Francisco games off an upset loss as a favorite.which is the case here have seen 6 straight games go over with a combined average of 50.3 ppg scored.

Play over

Falcons since week 13 have been very defensively stable, when it comes to EPA per play allowed recording a  (-0.144) mark.  The Falcons  are also  fifth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.238) during this span , and second in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.103).  There is above average  defensive talent throughout this line, and now with Penix Jr behind center the Falcons look like the real deal from a balanced perspective. Meanwhile, Washington is experiencing offensive regression and since week 10 the /commanders rank 16th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.017).  I know the NFL world still looks admirably at QB Daniels and he ha s played well overall with some big plays that have turned heads, but the recent stability of the Falcons secondary suggest he will look ordinary here. On the flipside,  QB Penix and company should have success with the run game and play action will be highlighted and benefit the visitors offense  vs a  sub par commanders rush D  ranking just  25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.029).  Note: Washington is ranked 24th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.106). 

Washington vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game are 0-6 ATS L/6.

NFL team like Washington - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 18-48 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Falcons to cover

Rain expected tonight, but its warm, and Im betting we still see points go on the board. According to my projections this number should be closer to 48. Soggy conditions will make for a ugly game is usually public consensus , but the defenses will also struggle here in this  environment. 

The Packers  enter this road game against Minnesota having scored 30-plus points in their last five games and Im betting they do damage again behind QB Jordan Love and company. On the flipside, we have Minnesotas red hot QB Darnold  who has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last six games with the Vikings scoring 30 plus in their L/4 overall. Needless to say these teams are really in a offensive groove and here in the warm environmentally controlled confines of Minnesotas home dome, it would not be unreasonable to believe that there could at some point  be enough offensive fireworks to propel this combined score over the offered total. The L/4 meetings between these teams here have seen a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. Note: Packers are off a big home win last time out 34-0 on 
MNF- In the following game , NFL away sides  off a home shutout  victory   have gone 10-1 OVER  last 7 seasons. 

Green Bay has ogne over 4 straight times in game 16 of the season, while Minnesota has gone over 5 straight in game 16 of the season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1983 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Dallas has looked a little better of late after a disastrous overall campaign that has exposed Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys as a sub par overall side. On the road is where their below average overall chemistry and inconsistencies  is the most  obvious as they are 0-7 ATS on the road   when facing  opponents  like the Eagles who outscore their opposition by 6+ points per game, with an average ppg diff clicking in at  these matchups, -13.3 ppg,  With the host 10-1 ATS L/11 in this series we will take the Eagles even without Jalen Hurts in the lineup and Pickett starting. 

Play on the Eagles to cover

The Rams are a solid team, but this Cards side matches up well against them. Teams like the Cards that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between side in the rematch  are 82-26 SU and 67-41 ATS  later in the season for a 62% conversion rate. In NFL December/January regular season tilts dating back 14 seasons  on winning streaks of at least three games but not a proficient  offensive unit  that scores 22 or less points have lost 32 of 53 SU and just  16-37 ATS . Hey I know the Cards dont have alot ot play for but pride is still a thing with ego based millionaires and Im expecting them to stand tall here vs a side that despite of wanting revenge, for an earlier loss this season,  Note: Home teams vs. the money line - revenging a blowout loss against opponent by 21 points or more, with a winning record in the second half of the season have lost 17 of the L/23 overall SU since the 2015 camping. Arizona  is 29-18 ATS as an underdog since 2021. 

Play on the Cards to cover

The line has moved up but rightfully so, as plenty of points should go on the board here today as strong QB play must be expected by Burrows and Nix. We know Burrows and company cant be stopped by any  NFL teams, and with  Cincinnati ranked  20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.086) the Broncos and Nix should also do damage with regularity which makes for an over wager being an advantageous investment option. The Over is 8-3-1 in the 12 games Denver has played against teams with losing records with HC Payton. 

 Games on Saturdays  in the NFL have gone a  9-0 OVER 100%  in the last 3 years when ( the home team is penciled in as chalk like the Bengals are here today and the  line is  between 40 to 50 points.

Play over

Here we go like I say plug your nose and turn away. Because its my ugly betty side call of the week. Im going with New England here as home dogs today against a Chargers side  traveling from coast to coast to play in a frosty environment they are not accustomed to. Also the Chargers are off a big offensive output last time out vs Denver which was a  34-27 win and now Im betting on immediate regression and letdown scenario to rare its ugly head  against New England. The Chargers after a game where they scored 34 or more points are just 0-5-1 ATS . Meanwhile, the Pats are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series, and are off playing a tough defensive game against the explosive Bills holding them to 24 points and getting the cover as DD dogs. 

Play on the Pats to cover 

Cold weather game being played between two teams, that  have combined to score just 41.5 points per game this season. Both offenses are very inconsistent, making a case for a under wager a strong proposition. 

Seattle away or neutral games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-0 UNDER L/5 with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams like Chicago against the total - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half are 31-7 UNDER since 1983 with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Kansas City has owned  Pittsburgh in the two most recent meetings between these teams , outscoring the Steelers by a combined 47 points for a average ppg diff of 23.5 . The complete control final scores were  36–10 and then  42–21.  

Kansas City owns  teams completing 64% or more of their passing points  with the average margin ppg clicking in at 4.4 over a 19 game sample size. I know Pickens is expected to back for Pittsburgh today, but Im betting QB play will be stifled by a front  D and secondary that take their opposition completely out sync. With the Chiefs offense ready to generate some extra power as the play offs approach Im betting the Cheifs to cover. 

Kansas City in away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season are 5-0 ATS since 2023.

Play on KC to cover

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring. Because of this I expect the combined score of this tilt not to eclipse the offered number. Note: The Under is 4-1 in the five games New Orleans has played with interim coach Darren Rizzi on the sidelines.  The Saints have not  scored more than  20 in four of those five games. LaFleur, has closed on the Under in 12 of 19 games   the Packers have played vs sides with winning percentages of 25% to 40%.

Play under/

NFL Home underdogs are 35-48-3 ATS during this campaign.  .Meanhwle, away  favorites went 7-0 SU last week and have cashed  14-1 SU l/15 over the last three weeks. 

The Buccaneers have won each of their last 10 road games following a road win.The Cowboys have lost each of their last seven Sunday games against opponents on a winning streak.The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Cowboys' last six games at AT&T Stadium.

Note:Mayfield was held out of drills Wednesday due to a knee injury, but his return to all activity one day later  gives credence in his on field presence this Sunday night.  He gets to tee off on a  defense that  has given up the second-most combined touchdowns (21 passing, eight rushing) to opposing quarterbacks in 14 contests this season.

Tampa Bay to cover

  QB Josh Allen has started four games where he is favored chalk of more than  11 pts. He is 3-0 SU in those games, but 0-3 ATS dating back to the 2022 campaign. Allen is also  4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS in his last 4 games in this line situation.The Bills are also currently  on a 0-9 ATS run as double-digit favorite. Plug your nose hold your breath and dive into a game that could easily see the Bills looking ahead to the play offs and the no 1 priority of staying healthy.  Im also betting on some major regression as they  are the first team in NFL history to score 5 TDs and have zero TOs in five straight games. Favorites of more than  TD (-7.5 plus) are 33-45 ATS when their team is on a 3+ game turnover-free run. 

The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five December games as underdogs against AFC opponents.The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five December home games against AFC East opponents.

Play on the Patriots to cover

The 49ers are 6-1 ATS coming off SU loss as a home favorite. Meanwhile,  Miami 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss and taking on  non division  opposition. Both sides are looking less than spectacular, but from a talent perspective the Niners look like a viable bet in a ugly betty matchup. 

Miami as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 0-5 ATS L/5. Miami versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game are 0-6 ATS L/6 dating back to 2023.

NFL Road teams like the 49ers - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 24-5 ATS since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking. at +4.43.

Play on the 49ers to cover

The New York Jets have momentum coming into this game as they  are off  32-25 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out. In his career, Rodgers is 8-0 ATS against the Rams and is a viable enough veteran QB to get the job done again this week. 

 The Rams have lost four of their last six games as favorites against AFC East opponents.The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games before a Division game.The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Jets' last five Week 16 games. 

Play on the NY Jets to cover

This is an outdoor game in frigid windy Chicago in December. These teams took part in a 23-20 tilt in week 13 and Im betting on this possibly being an even lower scoring affair. Note:

The Motown crew are on a  0-7-1 UNDER run as out door road favorites of points  or more and another lower scoring affair is in the cards today. 

Play on the under

When the Steelers are a  underdog of 4 pts or more they  are 8-0 ATS in franchise history vs the Ravens.  Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has also not faired well vs the Steel City Destroyers recording a   1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS  record vs. Mike Tomlin and  Steelers in his career. Rinse and repeat situation on board this Saturday. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-30 ATS 2015 season. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - with an incredible offense - averaging 6.0 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 9-36 ATS since 2020.

Steelers to cover

Bo Nix has looked great in his rookie campaign, but here on the road, Im betting against a strong Chargers D he struggles to see alot of positive traction.t Los Angeles beat  Denver on the road earlier in the season, and look to matchup well overall . Note: the Broncos are 4-8 SU as a road underdog under Payton while Los Angeles is 4-1 SU ATS as a home favorite under Harbaugh. Also Justin Herbert looking comfortable in the pocket of late and finally finding consistency with his recievers we have a viable /chargers side to back in this one. 

Thursday night road teams with a rookie QB like Nix are on the road, 8-20 SU since 2006.

Chargers QB Herbert has started two games on short rest this season recording a  2-0 SU/ATS mark  in those tilts.In his career, Herbert on short  short rest at home, has lead his offense to average  32.2 PPG.

NFL team like /Denver revenging a loss against opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). are just 6-27 ATS dating back to 2015.

NFL Underdogs like Denver vs. the money line - off a home win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 8+ games are 13-56 since 1983 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.4.

Chargers to cover

These teams put 57 points on the board in the first meeting in Chicago  and now they go into a indoor game, which will also aid in what Im betting will be a higher scoring event. Im betting with nothing left to lose the Bears interim coaching staff put a game plan in pace that will focus on getting QB Caleb Williams confidence in a good place , before this season ends adn they will try to move the ball more aggressively. On the flipside, Im betting the Vikings strong offense, tees off here ( Vikings  EPA per play of 0.050 this season. Top-10 NFL mark)

 Minnesota games in December games are 8-1 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored.Minnesota games after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 9-0 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 55.9 ppg scored. The Over is 10-4-1 in the games Vikings have played as a home favorite under  HCO’Connell. Minnesota has gone over 5 of their L/6 division home games.

Play over

Last week: Packers lost 34-31 to the Detroit Lions and could easily come out flat this week after that back and forth affair. Meanwhile, Seattle , is in top form and off their 4th straight victory and must be respected here as an underdog. The Packers defense  will enter this game exhausted after the amount of time they spent last week defending against the explosive Lions offense.It must be noted that sides that are away playing in back to back  games after their defense allowed 70+ plays in their previous contest  are a bad proposition going  72-103 SU dating back 10 seasons. 

Seattle is 11-1 ATS as division home dog. Seattle is 5-1 against the money line hosting Green Bay since the 2005 season.

Play on Seahawks to cover

QB Anthony Richardson is 4-1 ATS as a dog in his career.  I know Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year , but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end. Indy is also well rested and off a bye week where they own a 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS record-Colts are 2-0 SUATS, scoring 69 combined points in both games off a bye this season. Before the bye, the Colts did grab a moneyline win but did not cover vs  the Patriots.

In Anthony Richardson’s short career, he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in his previous game. also in play is desperation as Indy needs a win badly here to get a chance at a play off spot. Im betting for them to leave everything on the field today . 

Play on Colts

The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS as dogs this season, but Im betting that comes to end like all good and bad runs do. Note:  The Steelers have lost 10 straight games in Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread in 9 straight away versus the Eagles and Im betting nothing changes today in a rinse and repeat situation.  Philadelphia in home games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record are 11-1 L/12 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.4.

Play on the Eagles to cover 

The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 57.5 ppg scored. 

The Steelers secondary has been inconsistent this season, and Im betting Eagles Hurts pushes them this week, as the Eagles coaching staff unanimously has said they need to have their passing game going as the post season approaches, and will be out to get things rolling today in a aggressive fashion after struggling last week vs the Carolina Panthers. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be without two starting defenders as- safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjob. On the flip-side I know the Steelers will be without star WR Pickens, but this is a great opportunity for some other guys to stand tall. All in all my projections estimate a score in the 47 point range giving us an edge to the over.

Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER L/6  in 2nd of back to back home games . and 8-2 OVER  L/10 non-conference  home games.  Nick Sirianni as a HC of the eagles in home games in the second half of the season is 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 53 ppg.

Pittsburgh 7-3 L/10 OVER  as non-division road dogs of  6  or less.Pittsburgh games after playing a game at home have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 47.6 ppg scored.Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 Over the total in last nine starts as non-conference road underdog.

Play over

 The lead referee for this game  Bill Vinovich, is 59% to the under historically in his career.

The Panthers have gone 33 consecutive games as underdogs, and the L/9 times they have been listed as favs they have lost ATS. Im betting nothing changes here today vs a side that Im sure is ready to perform here this week after a last minute breakdown vs Cincinnati that resulted in a loss last time out.  HC Mcarthy is on the hot seat and you can bet he will be primed to have his team  perform optimally. NFL teams like Dallas with a money line of +130 to -150 - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 14 through 17 are 26-7 since 2020. Dallas vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season are 6-0 ATS L/6 dating back to last season.Mike McCarthy versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game is 8-1 ATS with Dallas.

Dallas to cover

49ers QB Brock Purdy has played on Thursday Night Football four times and in those prime time  tilts is a perfect   4-0 SU/ATS, covering ATS by an average of  7.9 PPG. He has the dubious distinction of being the only QB since 2003 to be a perfect  4-0 SUATS under the  TNF lights.Also Purdy is 7-1 SU, at home in night games and 3-0 ATS vs the NFC West. I know  that SF is on short rest but Purdy thrives in these situations cashing 6 of 8 ATS.  It must also be noted that. the Niners  are 2-0 SU/ATS in night games at home this season, scoring 30 plus points in both tilts. . Ill also mention that  Brock Purdy tends to do well  vs weaker secondaries. With the Rams ranked near the bottom of the league with a  Dropback EPA per play allowed  of (0.162) this season, the 49ers QB should do well, 

 Meanwhile on  the flipside QB Stafford’s is 4-7 ATS vs. 49ers lifetime , including 2-6 SU in his last eight starts vs. 49ers. Yes , he did notch the victory  back in Week 3, but  has never won two in a row SU vs the Niners in his career and Im betting that mark stays intact after tonight.

San Francisco is  9-5 SU when facing a side it lost to as a favorite earlier in the season under HC Kyle Shanahan while, the  Rams has lost 16 of 27 as road underdogs of 7 or less with HC Sean McVay.

NFL  team like the Rams - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 6-26 ATS since 1983.

NFL Favorites like the 49ers- after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, when playing on a Thursday are 26-5 ATS since 1983.

San Francisco is statistically better on both sides of the ball, and have momentum entering this tilt and with the market suggesting the Niners are the right side I feel confident that we cash a ticket today. 

Play on the 49ers- 

This seems from a historical stand point at least to be a good spot for Dallas as they have won six consecutive games SU in the last 20 years in the game after Thanksgiving at home. Boyz QB Cooper Rush has made ten career starts and and has cashed 7 of those 10 starts . If he is  underdog  of  less than 7 points, he is a perfect  5-0 ATS. I know Joe Burrows is absolute gunslinger, but his D, has let him down consistently this season, and in no way shape or form can be trusted in the favorites role on the road.  The Bengals  Swiss Cheese D,  has allowed at least 34 points in each of its last five games. Dallas versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 6-0 ATS dating back to 2023.

It must be noted that  the linesmakers believe this will be settled at in around the 6 point range. The Bengals are 1-7 SU this season in one score games . Overall the Bengals are 4-1 ATS L/5 MNF contests and have covered 4 straight games in this series. 

NFLRoad favorites - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are just 2-21 ATS since 1983.

NFL Road favorites - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-30 ATS since 1983.

Dallas to cover

Cheifs starter Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS vs. AFC West this season and 4-10-1 ATS over the last three seasons vs. his division. As an underdog of more than 3 pts,  Also Mahomes is now 24-39-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 pts or more since 2020   On the flipside Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 10-2-1 ATS in his pro career, including 6-1-1 ATS vs. the AFC West.In Herbert’s career, he is 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 or more in night starts . Considering the way the Chiefs play most of their games close, as is evident by winnging 9 games so far  this season by 7 points or less, it will not be hard for me to take the road dog here in this spot. 

Play on LA Chargers  to cover

QB Allen when has started games outside of the EST in his NFL career,   is 14-8 ATS and 6-1 SU in his last seven starts in  west trips away. Since 2020, Josh Allen is 29-4 SU vs. teams under .500, winning by 13.4 PPG and he gets the nod again here in this spot play vs the over hyped Rams who's  QB Stafford is  3-15 SU as a dog.

Bills are  also on a 7-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 SU and are traveling across the country on a short week coming off SNF and when NFL teams like the Bills are traveling from EST to play a tilt on the  road game in PST  they are 84-58-6 ATS  dating back 8 season, including 21-12-1 ATS in the last two seasons.Since 2019, road favorites on a 3+ game SU win streak like buffalo  having to make the trip from EST to PST are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS.

Play on the Bills to cover

Saints over all body of work does not compute when it comes to making them road favs , no not even against a downtrodden NY Giants group. It must be noted that Saints QB Derek Carr is 5-11 SU and 1-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2020 and is fade material here again.New Orleans in away or neutral games on the money line after scoring 14 points or less last game have lost 7 of their L/8 SU and have not been able to take advantage of teams like the Gmen that own a poor passing defense - that allows a comp. pct. of 61% or worse losing 7 of their L/8 SU. Also Brian Daboll off a road loss against a division rival is a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities. NYG QB  Lock is  5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS at home in his NFL career when his team is coming off a loss.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

This non division game projects to be a high scoring one. Note: All game 13s non-division  NFL confrontations  are 12-1 OVER L/13  when the home team is favored  in these non-division tilts for a potent 92% conversion rate..  Tampa Bay in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points (6 games dating back to 2022) have seen a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored.   Las Vegas games after playing their last game on the road are 6-0 OVER with a combined average 50 ppg scored.

Over ha cashed at a  8-0-1 rate in the last nine in this  series.

Play over

 Last season, the the Green By Packers visited Ford Field and took a  29-22  decision as as 8.5-point underdogs and I wont be surprised if they pull off the SU upset here. Yes, I know the Lions have really been rolling this season, but playing at the that high level of non stop attack football results in regression at some point, and last week against the Bears, in the 2nd half that became obvious in a game they were lucky to have won. I know where the public stands here, and Im going to go directly against Joe six pack and take the points with the hard working well coached underdog. The Packers are  22-11 ATS  as an underdog since 2019 and HC Matt Lafleur is a bankroll expanding 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points dating back 5 seasons.  Green Bay vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season are 8-0 ATS L/8 opportunities and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season.

Play on the Green Bay Packers

Denvers QB  Bo Nix has  ascended quickly with his pro football game and now looking like everything the Denver  Broncos hds wished for  from a signal caller. In his L/3 trips to the gridiron , Nix has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions and has passed for a total of 580 yards in his last two games, and according to my projections should flourish here against a less than. stellar Cleveland secondary. I know we have to lay a little lumber here, but it must also be noted that the  Broncos have  double digit victories in their L/5 wins. Also QB Bo Nix has only closed as a favorite (chalk) five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per tilt. 

Play on Denver to cover

Lamar Jackson is 26-6 ATS in the regular season when he is either listed as an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less in under these perimeters he    is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS, covering ATS  by an average  15.2 PPG. On the flispide, 

 It must also be noted that HC Nick Sirianni has never had to put a game plan togther to stop the multi faceted talent of Lamar Jackson in his coaching career . In Lamar Jackson’ career vs a  coach he faced for the  first time he is 37-7 on the moneyline SU for a 84% conversion rate. Lamar Jackson is 27-9 SU and 22-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018. 

The Ravens are also  14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages  66.7%  or better since 2020. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (Eagles) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, in December games are 8-29 ATS since 2015

This is where the Ravens seem to shine against the very best teams. 

NFL teams like Washington  that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 57-37 SU but 35-55-4 ATS when favored by 3 points or more since 2010. 

Washingtons HC  Dan Quinn is on an 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS run when coming off an upset loss and is an ugly  4-15 SU and 3-15 ATS vs. AFC dating back 8 seasons. the Commanders are also  1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents, while putting just  15.6 PPG on the board. 

Since 2018, teams  like the Titans off a straight up victory as a road pup vs. divisional opponent the week before are 68-44-4 ATS (61%) in their next game.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line or straight up - after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 or less points are just 4-21 since 2015 .Washington has lost 10 of their L/12 2nd half of the season games.

Tennessee on the money line /SU against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season is 8-0 L/8 opportunities.

Tennessee has the better D between these two sides , and QB Daniels and company continue to regress as this season goes on and are playing more like many of the pundits expected in preseason predictions. The road side has covered 7 straight in this series, and now getting this many points vs down graded Washington side is a solid bet.  This season, QB  Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. 

Play on Tennessee 

Houston has  dominated in their recent trips  to Jacksonville, Flordia to play the Jaguars , winning their last five trips SU. , Houston is also  10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road vs. Jaguars, covering the spread by an average  6.3 PPG dating back 13 seasons. Note: NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 26-5 ATS since 2015 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.6 . In the regular season, Doug Pederson is just 2-5 SU/ATS off a  bye, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 points per game. 

Play on Texans to cover

Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°F, with about 7-10 MPH winds.Miamis QB Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times , Miami is 0-4 SU in those tilts , failing to cover the  by an average of  18 PPG. In the 3 of those 4 games had windy conditions the QB ,saw his team score 39 total points. The Last 20 years, Dolphins have played 27 total games in 40° temperatures or colder, and they are now on a current 1-10 SU run  in their last 11 trips to the gridiron. In 32° temperatures or colder like tonights expected temp the Fins have lost their  last nine games , since 2013. Tua Tagovailoa has played in 13 night games (5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS) and Im betting things dont go much better here. 

Overall, Tua has not faired well in  night games. He’s 4-9 ATS in his career and he’s never covered consecutive night games within the same season . Note : He covered vs. Rams at night in his last start earlier this season.Tua has faced nine teams that are .500 or better  in night games, recording 1-6 SU in his last 7 games, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in night games vs. teams with a win rate of .600 or better.

On the road or a neutral site, Tua has started 13 games vs. teams above .500, and has lost 11 of 13 on the moneyline including  losing 8 consecutive games SU.

Chalk in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since  2006. 

Play on the Packers to cover

This total according to my projections are just a little on the low side and the over offers up profit potential. No Thanksgiving game  has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season  with 2 of 3 eclipsing that number. (Dallas Home games on Thursdays have gone 5-0 OVER  last 4 years and the last 4 Thanksgiving day Cowboys totals have the eclipsed the offering. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving dating back 14 seasons. Dallas/NYG L/5 meetings have all gone over the total. THURSDAY Division Home favorites when the Totals offering is  47  or less  the OVER 9-2  for a 82% conversion rate sinde the 2020 season.

Dallas home games after scoring 30 points or more last game are 8-1 over with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. HC Mike McCarthy home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 17-4 OVER with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

I know the Giants had a problem scoring last week putting just 7 points on the board, but it must be noted  NFL road dogs who scored 7 point or less playing as hosts last week , when the OU line is 47 or less are 10-1-1 L/12 opportunities. Also NFL home chalk of  4 points ore more  who were division road DOGS of +7 or more last week like Dallas ( +10) are 17-1 OVER in their follow up tilt. 

Play over

Detroit is 0-3 on Thanks Giving under HC Campbell, but Im betting with a big chip on their shoulders and revenge on board  for a DD loss on the road last season to the Bears we see this explosive Lions side light up their opponents in merciless fashion. Anything cam happen but the advantage based on the on field product and historical trends tells us we have value with this home favorite. Quote: “I don’t like being grumpy around family,” QB Goff said. "No one does. You want to win this game and be able to enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner with your family and it’ll be my first time experiencing that here and I want to do that.” END QUOTE

Motivational factors also favor the 10-1 home side. 

Note: Bears,  haven't won a game since Oct. 13 and haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet this season and just because of a couple strong efforts does not mean they are ready for this kind of opponent. 

Chalk on Thanksgiving are 48-9  (SU) and 38-19 (ATS).Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving dating back 19 seasons and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card since its introduction in 1990. You can can than correlate why the line stays shy of 10, its either because of smart money or the books just playing along with the public on the numbers game from a historical ATS perspective. Since  Wild Card was introduced in 1990, favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS. 

 NFL teams playing at home  like the Lions on Thursdays after winning at least their L4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 opportunities. Motown  is also 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory since 2018.  DET is 8-1 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving L/ 30 years. QB Goff’s 15-5 ATS in his career vs. NFC North.  Goff is 34-19-2 ATS  at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.

Bears have also not been a good bet in  divisional matchups in recent  seasons, recording a 9-21-2 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings dating back 5 seasons and are  are 0-4 SU overall on the road this season and 3-18 SU last three campaigns. Bears HC Matt Eberflus is 1-15 SU against . teams with a .600 or better  win pct on the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 31-3 since 2020 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Detroit Lions 

QB Lamar Jackson owns the night. He is 19-5 SU (79%) at night with the two of those loses coming in post season. The Ravens Jackson is in bounce back mode after losing to Steelers last time out . Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. .

In his career, Lamar is  6-2 ATS at a road or neutral site or  at home after a loss and when he has been favored by less than 3 pts or a underdog  he is 6-0 ATS.

The Ravens are 25-7 SU when listed as a favorite the week after facing the Steelers.

Play on the Ravens to cover

This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season, and Im now betting both offensive coordinators their players have a better feel on attack each other defenses. In the recent past when these teams played in their 2nd game of the season all 3 games eclipsed the total with a combined average of 49.6 ppg scored.

NFL team like New England where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 41-14 OVER since 1983 with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Lions offense is averaging 34  ppg on the season, and 38.5 ppg in the last month of play and virtually looks unstoppable entering this game at Indianapolis a team that ranks lower half of the league in ppg allowed at 19th. So Im betting the Lions, scoring more than 33 points and the Colts offense in chase mode in game that easily eclipses the offered total. Detroit games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-0 OVER with a combined average of 60 points per game scored.Shane Steichen home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games are 5-0 over with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The Colts are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS against the NFC North division opponents like the Lions. The  Colts have history of standing tall vs top tier opponents and  are al  10-0 ATS against .800 or greater opp . The Lions will be the Lions and rockn roll offensively but could they easily find themselves in a letdown spot on the road, and give up a-lot more points than expected. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 13-40 ATS since the 2015 season.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

 Let down scenario for the Bears is on board this Sunday, as they once again lost the Green Bay Packers last time out despite of leading late in the game.  Chicago is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Packers and are fade material this week.  Here vs a strong Viking side ,Matt Eberflus  and company are in for tough ride. The HC has taken on  16 teams with a  .500 or better record  SU with the Bears  recording a   2-14 SU mark and is 1-14 SU vs. teams with a .600 or better  win pct .

Vikings to cover

Fins top gun QB  Tua Tagovailoa is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS vs. teams with lower tier  point differentials of 4.5 PPG or less like the Pats  since the  2022 campaign.  The Dolphins have dominated this series ATS recently. Miami has covered the spread in 8 straight games vs. Patriots dating back to December of 2020.  QB  Tua Tagovailoa in his  career,  has closed as a favorite of six or more points 15 times recording a  14-1 SU mark and and 11-4 ATS in those tilts and gets the nod for the cover in this spot play..

Play on the Dolphins to cover

After a very tough  game against the Ravens last time out in a 18-16  win the Steelers are now in a emotional and physical letdown spot vs a Cleveland team that recently just upset the Ravens despite of being looked at unfavorably. This is a bad spot for the Steelers, and taking the points here in what should be a grinding divisional  game the points are the way to play this tilt. Favorites - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are just 45-16 ATS dating back to 1983 season for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -0.03 which easily qualifies on this spread offering. Cleveland in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Take the points with the Browns 

Im betting this is to many points here tonight to lay with the Texans and value now is now residing with the Cowboys.) Home underdogs on MNF are  15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) dating to September 2021. 

 Laying 7 points or MNF,  favorites of 7 points or more has been a losing venture as is evident by a 19-38-2 ATS record  dating back 12 seasons.  I know  Dallas’ has looked lifeless of late, but it must be noted that  NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are on a  28-15-2 ATS run in their last 45 games versus non-conference opposition Also NFL teams with the better record than their opponents like Houston are just 24-43-2 ATS  in the last 69 MNF games. 

Look for this instate rivalry to bring out the best on both teams , for this be alot closer than the linesmakers expect.

Mike McCarthy in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points is 8-1 ATS.

The Cowboys have won four of their six meetings with the Texans, including a 27-23 home win in the most recent matchup on Dec. 11, 2022.

Play on the Cowboys 

 Dallas starting QB Cooper Rush  was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week and Im betting he struggles again vs top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), including  the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the NFL. On the flipside, the Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and QB  C.J. Stroud looks like hes mired in a sophomore jinx. 

 that said, Im expecting the Texans to hit the gorund running in this tilt behind Joe Mixen, vs a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078) and been stepped over consistently vs opposing ground attacks. The combination of Dallas inability to score with consistency and the Texans offensive struggles and highly probable ground concentrated game plan Im betting we see large swaths of this game with very little points scored which gives credence to under selection cashing. 

key teams numbers: The Texans have allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed 13.0 PPG in the red zone this season -- 9th-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Home underdogs on MNF  dating to September 2021 (23 game sample size) have seen the  Under click in at  18-4-1  with a combined average of 37.3 PPG scored .

Play under

The Chargers own the No.1 defense in the NFL and a average offense. The Bengals can put points up on the board in bunches, but they could be fatigued here on a short week of rest and also start slowly after taking part in a 35-34 slugfest that they lost in heart breaking fashion.  

Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 so far during this NFL campaign. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

NFL road teams after playing  a Thursday road game  like the (Bengals) have gone under in 42 of 54 games  since 2016. 

Play under

Mahomes isn't having the typical Mahomes-like season this year thanks to what looks like a lack of motivation, yet the Chiefs are undefeated through Week 10 . this matchup vs the Bills should motivate the super star QB and Im betitng he will be the difference maker in key points during this battle vs Buffalo. Also Buffalos QB Allen will have his running abilities curtailed by a top tier rush D. 

KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog.Kansas City in away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season are on a 6-0 ATS run dating back to last season.Kansas City on the money line as a road underdog are a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities.

SF 49ers are on 13-1 Over the total run as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points and their QB Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total run vs. divisional opponents. Add to that HC Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since the 2017 campaign. 

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks like Bo Nix have delivered the goods in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS for a 73% conversion rate.

Atlanta in away or neutral games on the money line in the second half of the season are 1-8 L/9 overall. Atlanta in away or neutral games on the money line vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season are 0-7 L/7 opportunities.

Underdogs like Atlanta vs. the money line - after 1 or more consecutive losses, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 10-47 since the 2015 season losing by more than TD on average.

Play on Denver to cover. 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS L/12 as a home dog. Baltimore has been out-gained in two of its previous three games, allowing season-high yards in each tilt and just don't seem to  be viable road dogs vs this kind of rival. Historically the underdog is 18-2-3 ATS. when catching 3+ points in the Harbaugh vs. Tomlin rivalry.

Play on the Steelers 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only Steelers loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those games 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Rinse and repeat.  NFL Road teams like the Ravens against the total - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game are 22-4 UNDER since 2020 with a combined average of 43.1 ppg scored.

Play under

NY Jets QB  Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014.

Miami was without Tagovailoa for four games, which changed the entire make up of its offense.  The QB now looks to be back in form  as was evident in the Dolphins’ win over the Rams last week. I know the 2-7 Raiders are off a bye week, but the on filed product remains the same which gives credence to a Fins win and cover today. 

LV Raiders QB Gardner Minshew is on negative  0-7 SU and ATS run  as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points. Dolphins QB  Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of  4.5 PPG or less  since the  2022 campaign. 

The Dolphins have won three of their last four meetings with the Raiders and 11 of their last 14.

Play on Fins to cover 

NFL teams  like Motown coming off a tilt  in that saw them  turned the ball over five times or more have continued to struggle , going just  15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS  when favored in the next game  dating back 12 seasons. Note:  Dan Campbell after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread has done well but the average ppg diff clicks in at only +3.5 ppg. From my projected standpoint this is just to many points to give a Jacksonville side that has shown flashes of brilliance this season.

NFL Underdogs or pick - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 40-14 ATS since the 1983 season.

Play on Jaguars to cover

The Saints have won their last seven pre-bye week home games. NFL team vs the money line - after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 4-20 dating back to the 2020 season. Kevin Stefanski versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season are 0-7 ATS L/7 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.3.Cleveland is 5-8 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games.

As a big favorite on the road, McVay has guided his teams very well.  As a favorite of six or more points on the road he is 13-0 SU , including 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than four points. Im betting he gets the win here again and more importantly the cover. 

The Commanders have proved they can score this season behind duel threat  QB Daniels , but their D, remains their Achilles heal , as they their  EPA per play allowed registers at  (0.050), and their Dropback EPA per play (0.100). With that said, a up-trending Philadelphia offense that has seen their QB Jalen Hurts put 9 touchdowns on the board in his L/6 games, and has registered a 115 passer rating over that span and has only thrown one interception Im betting has a big night. The ability of Hurts to shred the Commanders secondary will open up the field for RB Barkley who Im betting runs rough shot here tonight. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s here today.  Philadelphia home games in the second half of the season dating back to least season have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 59.6 ppg scored.Philadelphia home games after 3 or more consecutive wins have gone over 7 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 55.2 ppg scored. Philadelphia home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.4 ppg scored. Washington games in road games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 57.2 ppg.Washington away or neutral games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored.

Play over

These teams have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs with the L/4 meetings resulting in an average combined score of 32 ppg. Currently Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring and here on the road Im betting will once again struggle to points on the board. As for the Rams they rank 18th in the NFL in scoring and that inconsistency according to my matchup projections will continue this Monday night. I know the Fins have looked better offensively in their L/2 games after not scoring more than 15 points in 5 straight trips to the gridiron, but they will have probelms scoring in this road venue. Just like Miami has increased their offensive output in their L/2 so has the Rams D also picked up its stopping efficiency ranking  third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and  have very strong stopping the run. NFL Road teams against the total - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 25-5 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 39-10 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 43.2 ppg.

Miami games off a loss against a division rival have gone under 6 straight times with a combined average of 35 ppg scored.

LA Rams games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season are 8-1 under L/9 with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

Play under

The Lions explosive offense prepares to take off this Sunday night against a inconsistent Texas defense. The Lions are rolling and looking dominant,. Detroit after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 times this has happened with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +20.

Detroit in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 are going 11-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.5.

Play on the Lions to cover

Dallas now might have a chance for a bounce back after Dak Prescott went down with an injury. Back up QB  Cooper Rush is 5-1 SUATS career  as a starter for the Cowboys , including 4-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or less points. I know the Eagles are in a groove right now, but Im betting on a huge effort here from the home side. NFL Road teams - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 5-25 ATS since the 2015 season.

Philadelphia in away or neutral games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 0-7 L/7 opportunities.Philadelphia vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season are 0-6 ATS L/6 .

Play on the Cowboys to cover

Steelers QB Russell Wilson brings a 111.9 QB Rating into this tilt vs the Commanders .  In two starts he has 3 TD passes and no interceptions. On the flip-side the Steelers D, has been hard to play against and offer up a physical matchup for the Commanders and a nightmare for their young stud QB Daniels.. Note:  Wilson  as a dog against opponents coming off back-to-back victories in  his NFL career,  is 11-0-1 ATS as a dog of four or fewer points. Washington in home games on the money line vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 1-6 L/7 dating back to last season.Mike Tomlin on the money line after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. is 31-7 as HC of the Steelers. NFL team like Pitt vs the money line - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 97-39 dating back to the 1983 season. I like the Steelers here getting points but would not be surprised if they sprung the SU underdog win.

Take the points with the Steelers

Im betting the red hot  Bills  who are on a 4 game win streak could have some issues here today thanks to a swiss cheese run D that allows 4.8 ypr which does not matchup well vs a Indy ground attack that averages 4.6 ypr. With KC up next for the Bills could easily be caught looking ahead and vulnerable to being upset.Indianapolis against conference opponents are 6-0 ATS L/6. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8 visiting AFC teams.

Play on Colts to cover

KC keeps finding ways to win,  and really have not blown anyone out this season.  Im sure the Chiefs  are tiring a bit after alot close calls. Its also interesting to note that  Andy Reid has won just 43 of his last 98 games by seven or more points when he is a chalk of seven points or more, giving credence to a letdown performance here vs a Broncos side that has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series. 

Play on the Broncos to cover

The last 8 meetings between these two teams have seen a combined average of 50 ppg scored. My projections once again estimate a combined score in this range and  gives credence to an over wager cashing for us today. NFC South same- division tilts  like this have  gone  7-0 OVER so far this season and that trend should continue today. The combined average of the above mentioned games were 57.8 ppg. New Orleans is in complete free fall and will now in desperation mode become more liberal in the attack schemes and just open up . It must be noted NFL teams on Sunday's  off 4 or more consecutive  SU and ATS losses have gone over 6 straight times. 

Play on the OVER 

The last time these teams faced each other a high scoring shootout took place, but now on a short week of rest and  each D feeling more comfortable  with facing  each sides offensive schemes Im betting a contrarian bet that favors the under. I know both defenses have looked porous at times but the Bengals for example have played much better as this season has progressed as was evident last week when they held  the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play .On the flips side, QB Burrows of the Bengals, will be without key target Tee Higgins this week.Since he faced the Ravens back in week 5 Burrows has only surpassed the 250 ypg plateau once, without Higgins who played that game against the Ravens. Im on the other side, of this very public line movement, and recommend an under wager. 

NF Home favs with a line of 52 or more points have gone under 15 of the L/17 games  last 4 years! Longer term there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 plus points totals offerings,  with the Under converting at a 73% rate going  22-8  UNDER .

Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014 in TNF prime time affairs. Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 lr more yards/play have seen a combined average of 46.3 ppg scored spanning a 6 game sample size dating back to last season. \

Play under

n Baltimore games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 8-1 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 29 ppg scored. John Harbaugh home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 19 of 25 times with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (Baltimore)- after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 50-20 UNDER wince 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Since trading offensive lineman Cam Robinson,  the offensive line is a weak link and will not give QB Lawrence the protection he needs vs a  formidable Eagles  defense and a solid defensive line. The Eagles are riding their first three-game win streak since last season and will be hard to play against here in this enviorment. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 3-23 ATS dating back to the 2020 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 ppg. Nick Sirianni as a home favorite of 7 points or less. is 10-2 ATS L/12 opportunities.

Play on Philadelphia

Ravens own the best offense in all of football  averaging 452 ypg and  have gone over in  7 of 8 tilts averaging a combined 56.4 pp), and the worst D in the entire NFL at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting to juice up their offense behind QB Bo Nix and have registered an average of 27.8 ppg in offense over their L/4 games with all of them eclipsing the total. Everything points to this totals offering being eclipsed. 

Play over

No doubt that Baltimore is an explosive offensive side, but man is their defense suspect currently ranking  dead last in the  NFL in overall pass defense at 291.4 YPG, yards per pass   and also  No. 25  overall in team defense at 361.3 yards per game. The Ravens against top tier teams almost always come to play, but this visitor may be viewed in a lesser way, and we could easily see a flat performance from a side that has been running and gunning non stop all season long. A bit of a reversal here offensively is not out of the question, giving credence to a cover by the Broncos.The Ravens are just 1-7 ATS as a non-division home favorite of seven or more points.  Denver versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 dating back to last season. Broncos are also 7-1 ATS L/8 as dog of 7 points or more. Also Sean Payton as a dog of more than three points, is 24-8-1 ATS in his career. 

Play on the Broncos to cover

Its got be Halloween, trick or treat, the Big Apple Jets are favs vs the better QB, better D and coach. Give me the points in this situation , as the  NY Jets franchise is a ugly 2-15 SU /4-13 ATS in the last 17 primetime games. Note:: NY Jets on the money line off an upset loss as a favorite are 0-6 L/6 opportunities.

NFL team vs the money line like the Jets - after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 3-20 since 2020.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line Houston - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 25-4 since the 2015 season.

Play on the Texans to cover

NY Giants QB Daniel Jones  has looked very inconsistent this season, but what he has been consistent with is road game top efforts , as he has defeated the Browns and Seahawks as a visitor  this season, and he played a strong game at miracle wonders the  Washington Commanders. After coming off  a nasty 28-3 loss to Philly, Im betting on a big bounce back performance form the Gmen. Note:NY Giants off a loss against a division rival are 8-1 ATS L/9 opportunities. Also NY Giants after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 9-1 ATS L/10 tries. From a league wide perspective  NFL sides that lost,  and scored 7 points or less, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have bounced back well in the underdog role , going a bankroll expanding 35-17 ATS  dating back to the 2013 season for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Also veteran quarterbacks like Pitts Russell Wilson have struggled in  MNF action with their new teams going just  9-18-1 ATS .  NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS since the 2020 season. Also Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-7 ATS dating back to the 1983 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -1.3.

Play on the Giants to cover

Dak Prescott and company have had problems, moving the ball and their problems will continue today according to my projections against this SF D. Meanwhile, Im betting on the Cowboys playing a conservative game as mistakes can not be tolerated in a almost certain must win situation for the Boyz. 

NFL team against the total  (49ers)- off a home loss by 10 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-4 UNDER since the 2020 season for a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.

Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game have gone under in 13 of L/14 with a combined average of 39 ppg.

Play on the UNDER

 Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) is listed as questionable and may be a game-time decision vs. the Bears., but even so the Commanders should not be this big a dog compared to the overall quality of football they have played this season. I know the Bears thanks to some top tier play are getting some love here , but its over done according to my projections. It must also be noted that the Bears are well rested off a bye week but they have a ugly history after rest as Chicago is  just 1-9 SU  in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by  an average 12.8 PPG in the nine defeats. 

Play on Commanders to cover