Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. NYJ are 8-1 OVER vs opposition off Monday night tilt like Denver. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! Play on the OVER |
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10-23-22 | Giants +3 v. Jaguars | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 34 m | Show | |
Giants Im betting will continue their upward momentum on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars. The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Jaguars 0-18 SU in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 106 h 5 m | Show | |
QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is 15-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog vs opposition coming off consecutive victories like the Chargers , including a stellar 8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show | |
Denver has gone under 10 straight times off a fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also 0-6 UNDER after playing on a Thursday tilt and and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of (38.8 ppg )going on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons. Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 108 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career. Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show | |
Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week , but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt. I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today. Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chiefs to cover |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Seahawks | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 44 m | Show | |
Arizona is more than capable of taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons. NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. The visiting team is 15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. Play on Arizona to cover |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show | |
How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB , where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is 12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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10-16-22 | Ravens v. Giants +6 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 31 m | Show | |
The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for. Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS L/10 NFC East, including 0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is 5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-16-22 | Vikings -3 v. Dolphins | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to explode on the Miami defense and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
QB Justin Fields just has not shown much at this level and all the excuses in the world or pundits calling for new coordinators will not do it in my humble opinion. The Bears 32nd ranked passing offense is in a shambles and the offense as a whole is in the same boat thanks to their woeful passing attack. Meanwhile, Washington will be motivated to bounce back after blowing chance to beat Tennessee last week . QB Wentz screwed up allowing an interception on the 1 yard line , and it was horrifying to watch. Now with PTSD firmly in place, I look for the shell shocked Commodores to bounce back and get rid of their MIA status. All games played at CHICAGO since 1992-WASHINGTON is 6-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO .WASHINGTON is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO . NFL team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just 13-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to win |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 34 m | Show | |
KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair, the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win. The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. Reid is 21-6 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265 or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City. Play UNDER |
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10-09-22 | Eagles v. Cardinals +5.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show | |
I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA. NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cardinals to cover |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots -3 | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show | |
Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! DETROIT is 3-12 ATS in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. NFL team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Patriots to cover |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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10-09-22 | Giants v. Packers -8 | 27-22 | Loss | -108 | 68 h 2 m | Show | |
NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. In the previous 7 international games that have featured favs of more than 7 points the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. Play on Green Packers to cover |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | 12-9 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor is not 100% if he plays tonight as his ankle continues to give him trouble. With the Colts key offensive juggernaut not at his zenith their offense should continue to struggle. Note: Colts offense has averaged an NFL-low 14.3 points per game and with senior citizen QB Matt Ryan on his last legs the Colts offense is not going to operate well enough to generate a decent output . On the flip-side Broncos qb Wilson has gone 20-3 in home primetime games and will be out to show case his top shelf grit this Thursday night and finally get consistent red zone TD conversions. The Colts are ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA this year. Broncos are 4-0 SU/ATS vs non division opposition on Thursday nights and are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 60-107 L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs +1.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 31 m | Show | |
I have a great deal of respect for KC and Patrick Mahomes but tonight Im betting against them on the road in Tampa Bay against QB Tom Brady and company. I know three-time NFL MVP has thrown for just 673 yards and three touchdowns in three games after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43) but like a thoroughbred off a long lay off , he will be now ready with the rust worm off to perform at an optimal output here on national tv in the Sunday night spot light event. Note: Brady is 11-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his illustrious career. Chiefs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game arem24-56 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover The New York Jets secondary has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt at 7.5 per pass and Im betting even the much maligned QB Trubisky cannot do some downfield damage here this Sunday.Opposition QBs have eclipsed this offered Total in two of three games against the Jets and a rinse and repeat situation is a high probability event. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard --- Arizona is also 10-1 OVER L11 vs NFC South with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored. Panthers are 7-0 OVER L7 vs NFC West with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders +3.5 v. Cowboys | 10-25 | Loss | -121 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
Dallas QB Rush has played well in wins over the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants but Im betting he has a lapse here vs a D that my rankings suggest matchup well against him and the Dallas O line! I know the Commanders experienced a nasty day in last week's 24-8 loss to Philadelphia, but this is a better side than that score would indicate and Im betting they will be ready to get some redemption in a motivated bounce back situation. Washington's QB Wentz has a history of success against the Boyz. In eight career starts against the men from Dallas , and has garnered 14 touchdowns and a career passer rating of 95.7. He will be key again and give us the edge to cover. WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . Rivera is 22-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 3-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons UNDER 48.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 12 m | Show | |
These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories that saw them go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk of 1 or more points like the Browns have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER versus any NFC opponent when the totals offering is 54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-02-22 | Browns -1 v. Falcons | 20-23 | Loss | -112 | 78 h 44 m | Show | |
Browns lead the league in Time of Possession this season (35:36) and are capable of hitting back via the pass game with under rated QB Brissett or the run game behind vaunted RB Chubb. Brissett has given up just one interception in 92 passes so far this season. They have won the stats battle in all 3 of their games and deserve respect here to cash for on the road vs a over rated Atlanta side. Note: The Browns are 5-0 ATS L/5 non conference road tilts. Atlanta is 0-8 SUATS versus the AFC North last 8 seasons , while the Browns are 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South. Smith is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 2-18 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The Browns own a 12-3 lead in the all-time series, including a 28-16 home win in the teams' last meeting on Nov. 11, 2018. Rinse and repeat situation on board. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens +3.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
The Ravens must not be underestimated in this tilt vs a top tier Buffalo side as they are, averaging 33 points and 380.3 yards per game behind the arm and legs of QB Jackson, and a over powering offensive line. Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in his last eight games as a home underdog, going 5-0 ATS in his L/5 opportunities . BALTIMORE is 37-21 ATS against AFC East division opponents.BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992 at home. It must be noted that \NFL Home dogs with a moneyline in the +125 to +155 own a strong 23-11 (68%) conversion rate straight dating back 17 seasons. NFLFavorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are are 12-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Baltimore to cover |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Bengals | 15-27 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
Miami's QB Tua Tagovailoa’s has a banged up ankle , but if the Dolphins man under center can not go, Teddy Bridgewater should not be underestimated as a road dog as his 23-9 ATS mark as a pup would indicate. Note"Teddy Bridgewater has defeated the Bengals two of three times he has faced them.The Fins are 3-0 on the season, and found a way to beat a top tier Buffalo Bills squad this season behind strong receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and are built to give the Bengals secondary fits. Im betting on the Bengals Super Bowl hangover to hamper them again this week vs a well conditioned side on short rest. Miami is 17-5 SU L/22 meetings in this series. Miami is 15-3 ATS L/18 as non division road dogs of 5 points or less. Miami is 4-0 L/4 vs AFC. NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami to cover |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 86 h 10 m | Show | |
Dallas QB Cooper Rush 2-0 SUATS in his career and I wont be surprised by another win here vs the NY Giants this Monday night. I know the Giants are 2-0 thanks to two close wins, but if history repeats itself thats not a good omen for a Gmen franchise that is just 2-8 SU/ATS when coming off consecutive victories. I know the Giants have revenge for two straight losses in this series but once again negative numbers appear when in redemption mode as they failed to cover 8 of their L/9 when in Double revenge. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. McCarthy is 17-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in all games he has coached in his career. NFL team vs the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 1-31 L/39 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (NY GIANTS) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-42 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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09-25-22 | Falcons v. Seahawks | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 47 m | Show | |
For the second week in a row the Falcons blew a chance for victory and lost the game with minutes left on the clock. Could the third time around be a charm. Im betting yes. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Seahawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta Falcons to cover/win |
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09-25-22 | Texans +2.5 v. Bears | 20-23 | Loss | -100 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
Houston has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Chicago last season by a 36-7 count and will be motivated to get some redemption and payback this Sunday. Chicago last time out only threw the ball 11 times and look woefully awful on offense and the D for all intensive purposes looks suspect . Im betting the Bears have problems scoring this season unless something drastic is done and that will be their downfall today. Texas has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series, and the Bears have shown a propensity for failure after taking on the Packers, losing and failing to cover 6 straight times after Cheese head confrontations. Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points which was the case vs the Packers last Thursday night in a DD loss. Play on Houston to cover |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts UNDER 51 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC. These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. Play on under |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bengals looked to be in Super Bowl hungover mode in their first two games of the season , but today Im betting they have an edge against a Jets side that is off a emotional come from behind upset win vs Cleveland last week. The combination of the Bengals being very hungry here, and the Jets batteries being drained Im expecting a conclusive Cincinnati victory and cover. NY JETS are 1-11 ATS after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts. NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a winning record last year are 31-1 L/39 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.7 which qualifies on the ATS offering. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 38 m | Show | |
The Colts are off a ugly 24-0 loss to the Jaguars last week and are now in redemption mode and will be primed to pull off an upset vs a strong looking KC side. Colts QB Ryan owns a 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opp , including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a under dog. If Mahomes and company get the win here Im betting it wont come easily making getting points essential here. NFL home dogs off a shut loss are 12-2-1 ATS L/15 in their follow up game. INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last 3 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 46-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
I personally believe we have an over reaction to the Cowboys losing their starting QB Prescott for a under determined amount of time because of a hand injury. I know Cincinnati is a strong team, but Joe Burrows behind a revamped OLine registered a career-high 5 turnovers in last week’s loss to the Steelers and could face pressure again vs a Dallas side that still exhibits a top tier D. In n my humble opinion the Bengals are vulnerable and we have a viable investment opportunity backing the underdog Cowboys. Defending Super Bowl losers are just 37-62-5 ATS as non-division road chalk. The Cowboys are a long-term 40-20-1 ATS L/61 as a home underdog . DALLAS is 39-23 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 47 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 16 m | Show | |
Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt have gone under 16 straight times in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as NFL contests have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities when both sides are of a home defeat in their last game . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. . NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 47 m | Show | |
The Browns miraculously ended a 17-game winless - opening streak games with a late 58 yard FG with 8 seconds remaining for a 26-24 victory at Carolina last Sunday much to my chagrin. Despite of that improbable hyperbole victory Im going against the Browns this week. After watching Baker Mayfield struggle behind a offensive line that looked ragged it actually not a hard decision to fade the Browns here vs a under rated NY Jets D that played tough against Baltimore last week despite of losing. CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 at home as 3 or more point favorite. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, in conference games are just 14-39 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2 v. Giants | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 37 m | Show | |
Carolina lost a 26-24 heart breaker on a 58 yard FG with under 8 seconds left on the clock to Cleveland last week, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here vs public favorite the NY Giants this week, another side that snatched a victory late by a 21-20 count. The Giants are just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when favored and , are just 1-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts. NFLHome favorites (NY GIANTS) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 97-163 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 3 m | Show | |
Tom Brady is still undefeated in his career vs the Dallas Cowboys with a 7-0 record after last weeks win by a 19-3 count. Brady was not prolific but still found a way to win behind a top tier D. This week however, I expect Tom to have some regression, something he has done in the past after covering by DDs on the road and than going into successive away tilts , as is evident by failing to cover in his L/6 opportunities. Last season the Saints took out the Bucs both times they met them and despite of having revenge on board, things are far from automatic vs a Saints team that has proven it knows how to handle Brady and company. It must be noted that the Bucs are just 1-6 ATS L/7 on the road in a double revenge scenario. The Saints have won SU 8 of their L/9 and have cashed 9 straight as conference home dogs against .800 + opponents and are 7-1 ATS L/8 in this series. NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 39-14 ATS L/39 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants UNDER 44 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show | |
Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im looking at beatable totals numbers as a critical money making factor this season . With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-18-22 | Colts v. Jaguars +3 | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Jags were able to move the ball decently in their loss to the Commodores last week and should be able to move the chains again vs a Colts team off a tough grinding game last week vs Houston. Jaguars have won seven consecutive home games against the Colts in Duval County. Jags are 12-1 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS the last five games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. Todays weather is expected to be in the 80s in Jacksonville with high humidity and this will favor the Jags who are more accustomed to this heat than a Colts side that plays their games in a dome. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
The upgrades to Denver Broncos football and the so called rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks has the public hands down backing the visitors tonight. However, in my sometimes contrarian ways Im instead going with the home dog. I know newly acquired Broncos QB Russell Wilson knows his former team the Seahawks well, but likewise so do the Seahawks know Wilson well and his mode of operation and his weaknesses. As far as preseason football goes, I was not impressed by the Broncos, and their coaching staff. I really feel their are alot of kinks that need to be ironed out, for this Denver franchise to show the upward momentum expected of them making getting points with the home side a better deal than many might expect .Carroll is 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 50-29 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 14-5 ATS in home games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. Denver 3-11-1 ATS L/14 Monday nighters. Monday night chalk in game 1 of the season are just 19-39-1 ATS L/42 seasons. Play on Seattle to cover |
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09-11-22 | Jaguars +3 v. Washington Commanders | 22-28 | Loss | -107 | 196 h 22 m | Show | |
Off season moves by Jags has WR Christian Kirk, in the lineup giving QB Lawrence the best receiver he’s played with in his NFL career and Im betting as long as they both stay healthy they will have a productive on field relationship that will aid the Jags offense greatly . Expected QB matchup Wentz vs Lawrence. Historical Trends: WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS in home games in September games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 44-75 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. Commanders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.Commanders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Jacksonville Jags to cover |
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09-11-22 | Ravens v. Jets UNDER 45 | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 103 h 44 m | Show | |
Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D. Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games NY JETS in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. Play UNDER |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers | 26-24 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
The Panthers will start Baker Mayfield this week against a Cleveland side that will start back up QB Jacoby Brissett instead of the suspended DeShaun Watson. Im betting Mayfield will want a grain of redemption here to prove to the Browns what they gave up on. Note: Brissett has lost 23 of his 37 NFL starts for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. Bottom line: The Panthers with a motivated Baker in the lineup , and Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Play on Carolina to win |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl Champions the LA Rams host the Buffalo Bills in both sides opening tilt of the regular season this Thursday night. At the time of me releasing this selection the Bills are getting most of the publics support, but head coach Sean McVay and company have proved very competitive out of the gate in the recent past posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in game 1 of the season and must not be underestimated. Buffalo barley eked out a 35-32 win during the 2020 campaign at home when these teams played and will be lucky in my opinion to get the job done again vs a top tier side that demands respect from opponents. Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September. Defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs in the first six games of the season dating back 42 seasons.. NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 43-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 272 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bengals have covered seven straight games entering this Super Bowl game vs the LA Rams. Key Bengals component QB Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS vs. above .500 opponents, making him the most profitable QB in NFL since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2020. This kid is as cold as ice, and is not intimidated by the spot light of big games , as the Heisman Trophy winner has a CFB national championship under his belt and key NFL play off victories . Burrows is (13-2-1 ATS in his NFL career as +2.5 dog or more points) Bengals HC Taylor is 12-7 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .500 or greater record, including 6-1 ATS as an away dog. NFL Super Bowl teams like the Bengals coming off a win as an underdog of more than three points are 11-3-1 ATS dating back 42 seasons. Cincinnati has taken on 9 playoff squads this season, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. Teams like the Bengals with the lower win percentage are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls . From a overall perspective my data suggests that this game could easily be won by a FG or less, but when the money is down, Ill key on Burrows as the savior and ultimate profit maker for us today. The Rams QB Matthew Stafford entered this season 23-57 (28.85) SU in his career vs. teams above .500 and even though he is at home, is not a viable favorite according to my projections considering his streaky history. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 2 m | Show | |
The 49ers enter this game matching up very well vs their hosts the L A Rams as HC Sean McVay has 6 straight win this this series and obviously knows how to get the job done vs Shanahan and company. Note: SF QB Garappolo is 12-2 ATS as a dog of less than five points in his career and despite of average numbers in the play offs remains a dangerous QB who at any time could explode for a big day. I know Rams QB Stafford has looked tremendous for the Rams in the post season, but hes a very streaky player, and here against a strong SF D that in its best form the of the season, the sledding could get very rough. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS in January games over the last 3 seasons. 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points are 31-9 ATS L/39 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 104 h 40 m | Show | |
AFC Playoffs - Championship The KC Chiefs exploded offensively in a a back in forth game against the Buffalo Bills last week pulling off the over time win. Now Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs the visiting Bengals and their offense could easily be a little more muted this Saturday which Im betting will directly effect this total to the under. CINCINNATI is 24-8 L/32 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-1 L/16 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with the average ppg with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored. NFL eam where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 54 m | Show | |
AFC Playoffs - Divisional These two top tier teams, go head to head in the play offs and Im betting the difference maker will be home field advantage. The Chiefs knocked off the Bills in last years play offs and despite of the Bills getting revenge earlier this season still matchup very well here according to my power rankings. Note:KC QB Murray is 7-2 in his play off history, with both losses vs the king Tom Brady. Bills are 3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott. BUFFALO is 3-13 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - off 5 or more consecutive overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game are 26-6 ATS L/39 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NFL road team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a victory of 25-plus points (Buffalo) if going against a .750 or less opponent (KC) are just 0-7 ATS dating back 42 seasons. .Play on the KC Chiefs to cover |
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01-23-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 15 m | Show | |
NFC Playoffs - Divisional TB super star and king of the NFL QB Tom Brady is 0-2 just SUATS vs the Rams while he has been with the Bucs with both defeats coming as a favorite. It's never an easy decision to play against Brady but I feel we have an edge taking points with a Rams side that slowly pushed itself in top form as the season progressed. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=370 YPG) after 8+ games, after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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01-22-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
AFC Playoffs - Divisional Bengals second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is the real deal . He set a franchise record in passing yards (4,611) and touchdown passes (34) this season while completing an NFL-best 70.4 percent of his attempts. I know the return of Titans star RB Derrick Henry is expected , but he will have a ton of rust on him and he is possibly still not 100%. It being touted that burrows does not have NFL play off experience, but he proved the naysayers wrong last week, and its not like he has not completed for championships before , so I doubt very much he will be intimidated. Advantage Bengals getting points. Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on the Cincinnati to cover |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
NFC Playoffs - Wild Card I was not going to touch this one, but when the line got down to a FG I had to bite on what Im betting is the better team playing at home. First off Murray does not look 100% , and while Stafford is probably also not in great shape overall, because of the some of the punishment he took hes in a better portion to succeed tonight as he does not need to consistently scramble to make plays. The Rams have won and covered 5 of the L/6 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. ( Rams are also 8-1-1 ATS L/10 in this series) Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Kingsbury is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of ARIZONA. LA RAMS are 25-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NFLUnderdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.4 which qualifies on this ATS line. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 54 m | Show | |
For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17 as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 29 m | Show | |
NFC Playoffs - Wild Card The Cowboys explosive offense goes against a staunch defense ranked second in the league against the rush and fifth in the league in sacks with 48. On the flip side the 49ers, have won 8 of their L/10 overall and must also not be underestimated from a offensive perspective behind Jimmy Garoppolo and have an overall edge here according to my projections. DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 3-10 SU/ATS in the playoffs dating back 25 seasons , including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. DALLAS is 14-34 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (370 or more YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (DALLAS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on SF 49ers to cover |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4 v. Bills | 17-47 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 43 m | Show | |
The Bills beat up on the Pats towards the end of the season, but that was a learning experience for Mac Jones and company, and with a future HOF coach like Bellichick on the sidelines Im confident positive adjustments can be made. We have to remember prior to that the Pats took a 14-10 win on the road in Buffalo on Dec 16th where the franchise is 15-3 ATS L/18 visits. Note: NEW ENGLAND L/109 games as a road underdog and have seen the average ppg diff click in at -1.7. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 ATS L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Road team is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on New England Pats to cover |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 49 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
AFC Playoffs - Wild Card Entering this game the Vegas D has allowed 20 points or less 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. In their season finale the Raiders did have a defensive breakdown, allowing 32 points in a 35-32 slugfest victory, but from a historical perspective the Raiders have clamped down in their following game especially if was a shootout, as is evident by the following trends. Note:Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games following a straight up win.LAS VEGAS is 36-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game with a combined score of 42.4 ppg scored. LAS VEGAS in their L/13 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog have seen a combined average 42.6 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Joe Burrows and company are a virgin group with no big league play off experience, and this will be detrimental to them and their offensive cohesiveness. Despite of the accolades that Burrows gets there have been obvious interruptions their flow on offense and Im betting that will once again be an issue. Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 Wildcard games.Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 playoff games.Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games in January. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (VEGAS /CINCINNATI) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
The Rams QB Stafford is not seeing the field well as was evident last week when the threw another pick-six , and now has seven turnovers in the last three trips to the gridiron . Stafford is infamously streaky and his form is not where it should be entering this game against the SF 49ers. . Meanwhile, the Niners who have won the stats battles in 7 of their L/8 overall have urgency attached to this affair and will be very motivated to snatch a SU win as a victory or a loss by the Saints, will get them a post season wild card position . From a matchup perspective the Niners took out Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home underdog back in November, and have been a ATS machine for their backers after they covered the L/3 meetings in this series. SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 24-3 L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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01-09-22 | Washington Football Team v. Giants +7 | 22-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 53 m | Show | |
Both these teams are done for the season, after today, and Im betting we wont see alot of motivation other than the revenge scenario the Gemn have for a 1 point loss they suffered to the Football team back in Sept. What I do expect is for both coaches to try to find a way to finish their season with some positives, via some slight structural renovations to their systems. In this type of affair, taking points with a home dog is a strong wagering opportunity . Note: NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging an extremely close loss against opponent by 3 points or less. Football Team are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Football Team are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East. Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 1160-96 L/39 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 26-56 ATS L/10 seasons for last 10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 51-26 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
With so many players injured and the additional woes of covid protocols and the possibility of both teams resting starters at some point during this game, I dont feel their will be enough positive flow for a big offensive output here tonight between these foes. I honestly believe that no matter what these coaches say staying healthy for the play offs is the main goal, which to me relates to an affair with very little cohesiveness. Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in January. Philadelphia is 0-6 UNDER off a division road game victory. Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a road favorite.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC. Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas road games have seen a combined average of 42.9 ppg this season. Note: The Cowboys are 0-6 L/6 division road tilts. DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored. McCarthy is 8-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.2 ppg scored.McCarthy is 9-2 UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia with the average combined score in those tilts clicking in at 30.2 ppg. NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 85-54 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-03-22 | Browns +3 v. Steelers | 14-26 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Cleveland is off two very close losses by 2 points each time and are desperate for a victory and despite of now being eliminated from the playoffs but are still a side that needs to finish strongly and play spoilers . Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was crushed by the Chiefs last time out , but still can win the AFC North. Needless to say this is a big game for the Steelers but because of their ineptness this will be a grinding affair with getting points in my opinion being golden. Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in January. Note: the Steelers have now been held without a TD in the first half of 5 consecutive games and these slow starts are a game killers and Im betting it could easily rare its ugly head again tonight. Plus I cant help but feel Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is not longer a top tier pivot as father time remains undefeated. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.Steelers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Steelers are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NFL Underdogs on the opening l vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 1-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. are 27-6 ATS L/29 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play in Cleveland to cover |
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01-02-22 | Lions +7 v. Seahawks | 29-51 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 54 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are not going to play offs, and will now be in a emotional down situation here this week vs a rejuvenated Detroit side that will motivated to finish their season on a strong note. Note: Seattle probably does not deserve a play off spot anyway, considering they have lost the stats battles in 12 of 15 games. this seasons ,by an average -82 net ypg. Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five battles against the NFC North. The Lions are 5-1 ATS record in NFC West game and have covered four straight vs NFC. Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season. DETROIT is 8-2 ATS in games played on turf this season. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 15-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Since star RB Derrick Henry went on the IR the Titans have been in a bit of nose dive, and until he returns things wont get much better including today against a up trending Dolphins side that is on a 7 game win streak. Note : NFL sides on a 7 game win streak, are on a 12-1 ATS run when coming off a non-division victory. (Miami beat NO last week 20-3). Tennessee has had problems scoring since Henry went down, and recently during a 5 game run have averaged just 15.8 ppg in offense. On the flipside the Fins have allowed just one side more than 17 points in their L/7 games overall. MIAMI is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-1 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 20-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NFL team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on Miami to cover |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars +17 v. Patriots | 10-50 | Loss | -117 | 52 h 58 m | Show | |
The Jags are on a 7 game losing streak and have failed to cover 6 straight times, but here I am recommending we take the points . This offering from a mathematical standpoint according to my projections is a almost a full FG off , giving us value taking points. Last week the Pats got a reality check against the Bills in a loss and QB Mac Jones showed his relative immaturity in that loss. Desperation and some sort of redemption for this Jaguars side Im betting has them leaving everything on the field this Sunday. Jaguars have covered 3 of their L/4 as 13 or more points pups dating back to last season. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 52 h 44 m | Show | |
Pittsburghs offense has been highly inconsistent this season, and have scored 20 or less points in 5 of their L/8 trips to the gridiron. Here today vs a KC side that is playing at a very high level behind a strong D, Im expecting another muted offensive effort from the Steelers. It must be noted that before their last outing where they allowed 28 points, the Chiefs had given up 17, 7,14, 9, 9, 9 points respectively. On the flip-side, the Steelers achilles heal has been their rush defense, and today I expect Reid and company to pound the ball in anticipation of an expected success rate, which in turn will eat plenty of clock time and help the combined score stay on the low side of the total. Steelers have gone UNDER in 19 of their L/ 21 non-division away Tilts when the Total is set at 53 or less points. Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. KANSAS CITY is 38-18 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play this season with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game are 90-44 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City. Play the UNDER |
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12-26-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Falcons | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
Jared Goff went 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions 30-12 win against the Arizona Cardinals last week as 13-point home underdog, which was the Lions 2nd victory in 3 games. Now with momentum on their sides, Im betting they once again stand tall against a Atlanta team that has not liked playing in their new digs , where they are 0-5 this season while averaging just 13.2 ppg in offense while allowing 28 ppg which clicks in at - 14.8 ppg diff. Nothing comes easy for the Falcons and if they break their home losing streak it wont come easily if at all which has me recommending we take the points here. ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC. Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 2 m | Show | |
Ok Get ready this is a plug your nose special. Im betting the stench of the Urban Meyer experiment has cleared. With that said, Jacksonville will be ready to start a new chapter and in the short term at least show some motivational progress vs a Jets team that could also use some air freshener and a proverbial deep cleaning. Both these teams struggle to score, but the difference maker comes on defense where I feel the edge goes to the Jags . Note: Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS as a underdog against AFC East opposition , including 4-0 SUATS L/4. Jets are 3-10 ATS L/14 at home as 4 or less point home favs. NY JETS are 1-10 ATS L/10 in home games vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season. NY JETS are 0-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. NY JETS are 4-16 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog. NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-25 L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (NY JETS) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 20-47 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-25-21 | Colts +1 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
After a fast start to their season, the Cardinals are now just 3-4 SU/ATS L/7 and not in good form entering this tilt vs the under rated Colts. It seems ever since JJ Watt went down so did the chemistry of the Arizona defense. With some key injures on offense for the Cards ie( Hopkins), and a bruised and banged up QB Murray looking less than 100% the Colts look like a very viable option here behind star RB Johnathon Taylor. Im betting the Colts pound their way to a road win and continue their upward momentum after ending the Pats 7 game win streak last time out. Note: Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Injury updates: Colts 3 of 5 starting offensive lineman will miss this game -Quinton Nelson (COVID list), Mark Glowinski (COVID list), and Ryan Kelly (personal)- which has moved this line . When handicapping this game 2 of these guys were part of my assessments . It must be noted that the replacements for the Colts are fresher, almost equally talented as the starters. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Reich is 11-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS. ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cardinals are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 2-37 L/38 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 46 | 10-20 | Win | 101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
These divisional rivals have a recent history of fairly low scoring affairs as is evident by a 37.8 ppg combined score in their L/4 meetings overall. History does not always necessarily repeat itself but it does have a tendency to mimic it. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 7-1 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. Carroll is 16-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored. Arizona has gone under in 13 of their L/14 in games in the 2nd of back to back road games. Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 after a MNF affair. Division games have a tendency of generally being hard fought conservative affairs late in the season usually from game 11 onward into the play offs ( line of 44.5 to 60) as is evident by a 225-143-5 UNDER run for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 39-14 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing teams are 33-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
I know how strong a side TB is but after last weeks record setting event behind future HOG QB Tom Brady that saw them pull out a win in OT vs Buffalo Im betting will now have this team in a natural letdown spot. Meanwhile, Saints remain in the playoff hunt after their victory on the road vs the Jets last week and have motivation and momentum entering this tilt. Note: The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division r away games. I know which side is the better group, but the great thing about spread betting is that there are edges to be had, taking points with under rated sides. This Im betting is one of them. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NFL away team in a tilt in Sunday Night events that is coming off a victory of more than 10 points and than going against opposition coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year are 11-1-1 ATS L/41 seasons. NFLHome favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 12-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 9 m | Show | |
The Broncos honored the late Demaryius Thomas who suddenly died at age 33 the week of this game vs Detroit. The Broncos left everything on the field that day as they took out the banged up Lions by a 38-10 count. Now in a huge emotional letdown state I betting they will not have the energy needed to get the.cover here vs a Bengals side that is desperate for a win. Note: Bengals QB Joe Burrows is a perfect 3-0 ATS when this team is off 2 consecutive losses. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Cincinnati to cover |
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12-19-21 | Texans +5 v. Jaguars | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
Urban Meyer’s short and ugly tenure here in Jacksonville looks to be almost completed . Its been a horrendous season , Meyer has blamed his coaching staff for the problems which has put the entire team in disarray. The Jags have now lost 5 straight and really don't deserve to be this big a favorite , not even against another slumping side the Houston Texans. ....Advantage Texans. HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 2-16 ATS L/18 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders. NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville. The underdog has cashed 4 of the L/5 meetings. Play on Houston to cover |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
The Jags average 13.8 ppg on offense this season and Houston average 13.6 ppg. These teams have problems moving the ball and nothing changes here today in sunny humid Florida. JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Meyer is 6-0 UNDER (after scoring 14 points or less last game as the coach of JACKSONVILLE with the combined score clicking in at 33 ppg. Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games. . NFL home favorites that off a division road shutout defeat like the Jaguars have gone a perfect 0-12 UNDER since 1996 when the Totals line is 38 points or more. Houston has gone under in 3 straight divisional road games . Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC. NFL Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
Indianapolis has won 4 of their L/5 with the one loss coming to defending champion Tampa Bay by a 38-31 count. Meanwhile, the Pats have been the storyline in the NFL this season, as Bill Belichick cements his future HOF status. The Pats enter this game on a 6 game road winning run, but with said, all good and bad streaks must eventually come to an end and Im betting thats the case here in Indy today. Ive kept a close eye on the Colts, and after watching them decimate the Bills, Ive come to the conclusion that they are very under rated and with the publics attention squarely on the Pats Ill lay the light lumber with the home side at under a FG. Right or wrong the sharp money will flow into the Colts column. Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Home team has covered 5 of the L/6 meetings in this series. INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 season. NFL team (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on a Saturday are 9-32 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
The Chiefs during their current six-game winning streak, have forced 16 turnovers and allowed an average of 311.7 yards and just 10.9 ppg. The D, is merging at a high level with the offense, and in their current form are in top form and a formidable opponent for the Chargers . Add to that Reid and company have revenge on board for a loss suffered in last September back in KC and you have a viable favorite to back this Thursday night. Reid is 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached . The Chiefs have won seven straight road games against the Chargers. Note: Road favorites in ’ Thursday games have won by an average of -10.1 points per game this season. Rinse and repeat bet here in motion with the Favorite. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Reid is 7-0 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY. LA CHARGERS are 2-13 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.LA CHARGERS are 1-9 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - out-gaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Arizona QB Murray is an exciting athlete, and this sometimes overshadows his teams overall performances especially on D , where they have been out-yarded in 3 of their L/5 games. Add to that Arizonas 1-7 ATS record in its L/7 tilts as a division host, and you have what Im betting against is an over rated side. Meanwhile, the Rams after a rough run -came out last time out with a get right effort winning by a 37-7 vs Jacksonville and now have momentum heading in this prime time tilt. Note: Arizona has failed to cover 10 of their L/12 at home on Monday Nights . Cardinals HC Kingsbury is 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 at home as a 6 or less point favorite. McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 21-11 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 divisional battles and have won their L/2 visits to Arizona and are 8-1 ATS L/9 meetings overall in this series. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 27-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 52 | 30-23 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This divisional game Im betting will be a hard fourth grinding affair. I know anything involving QB Murray of Arizona is looked at as a point fest. However, because of the importance of this game for these teams, and the usual inter divisional biases, taking the under here looks to be a viable betting option in what Im betting will be a chess like lower scoring affair. Arizona is 0-7 UNDER L7 as divisional Home Favorites and from a historical perspective Arizona is 0-8 UNDER in their L/8 Monday night appearances. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 38.1 ppg. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 104-58 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
This tilt behind top tier sides Buffalo and Tampa Bay has the makings of game that will decided late and by one score, most probably a FG according to the linesmakers, making getting the hook with the points a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion. Tom Brady is the marquee name in this tilt, and lives with a cloak of invincibility around him, but he's not made of titanium, and eventually father time will get the best of him. Actually Ive noticed his legs have let him down on more than one occasion the last few seasons, and today vs a fast and explosive Buffalo D, his lack of mobility wont allow him the time he usually gets . What Im saying is that if TB wins it wont come easily. Advantage on the line goes to the Bills. BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Buccaneers have been favored by 3.5 points or more 10 times this season and are 5-5 ATS in those contests. Buccaneers are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 14. Buffalo is 5-2 overall, and 5-2 against the spread, on the road.The Bills are 4-2 ATS as 3.5-point underdogs or more on the road. NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 48-19 ATS L/39 seasons for a 72%. conversion rate for bettors. Note: Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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12-12-21 | 49ers -1 v. Bengals | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Both Cincinnati and San Francisco are both off losses. I thought the 49ers should have won their game vs Seattle , and deserve respect here on the road as essentially a pickem vs a Cincinnati team that is off a less than cohesive loss, and downtrending in my power rankings, especially with QB Joe Burrows hand injury( pinky finger). Todays difference maker will come via both sides offenses where the Bengals rank 24th in their passing game and just 20th with their ground attack. While the 49ers are fourth via the pass and ranked sixth with their run game. SAN FRANCISCO is 21-7 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Play on San Francisco to cover |
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12-12-21 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | 29-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 17 m | Show | |
QB Cam Newton of the Panthers looked horrendous last time out going 5-for-21 for 92 yards in a 33-10 loss to the Dolphins and the coaching staff said they wont make any changes this week. This reminds me of statement by Albert Einstein, that went something like this " doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a form of insanity. Yes, maybe Im exaggerating a bit, but thats how I feel about that decision, and feel strongly that the Falcons prove me right this week, at least from a cover standpoint. Note: The Last 14 times that Newton has been the favorite the Panthers have only covered 3 times. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors, but have been money in the bank from a historical perspective in this series going 9-2 SU/ATS . Note: Yes, the Panthers are well rested and off a bye but the Falcons have cashed 4 of their L/5 against these types of teams. CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (CAROLINA) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 17-46 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -120 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
This is just to many points even though the Texans don't look like a viable side to back , especially if you watched their last game where they were shutout . But pros do not like to be embarrassed and Im betting on a semblance of a bounce back here from the Texans at home. You have to remember Seattle has not looked good recently despite of finding the win column last time out and have been out-yarded in each of its last 11 trips to the gridiron this season. Bottom line no matter which way I slice it and handicap this game, this is just to many points to pass up on with the pup as the favorite is just being plain over rated. Note: HC Carrol is 1-5 ATS L/6 as a 3 or more road fav and has covered just 5 of this L/16 coming off a SU underdog win. HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS L/17 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS L/23 in home games off a home loss. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - a horrible offensive team (14 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 54-22 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is off a huge win last time vs Baltimore to keep their play off hopes alive but now they will be caught in an emotional letdown spot vs a Minnesota Viking side that is desperate for a win after back to back losses including one to formerly winless Detroit last time out. Note: Vikings Zimmer is 25-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts in his career when coming off a defeat, including 11-1 ATS against AFC opposition. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA. NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 4-24 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders UNDER 49.5 | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 79 h 36 m | Show | |
Washingtons D is something special in its current form, despite of mostly sub standard numbers overall. This group is as tough as nails and allowing 17, 19, 21 and 15 points respectively in their L/4 tilts and will not easily be pushed around at the line of scrimmage again this week. On the road the Football team are averaging just a little over 20 ppg in offense Meanwhile, Las Vegas has mostly struggled on both sides of the ball, and finally got their first win 4 tries on the 25th of Nov vs the Cowboys. After that exhausting 36-33 offensive slugfest vs Dallas last time out Im betting on an immediate reversion to the mean offensively for the Raiders this week with the added rust of an extended lay off to hamper their output and this help keep this game stay on the low side of the number. .Dating back to the 2015 season all teams like Washington off 3 straight underdogs wins with a line of 43 or more have gone under 8 straight times. Washington is 5-0 UNDER L/5 vs NDC West sides. WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37 ppg scored,
Tilts involving non conference conflicts (AFC vs NFC) have only seen 8 of the 32 games eclipse the offered total. Play UNDER |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 26 m | Show | |
I dont usually take huge favs, rarely if ever actually, but this is one of those occasions . The Rams are extremely frustrated right now after 4 straight losses, and need a win badly to get back some long lost respect. Meanwhile, Jacksconville behind QB Lawrence and a less than cohesive offense wont be able to do much damage here this week, while the Rams no matter who is under center (Stafford or Walford) are more than capable of pounding the Jags and getting them selves right again. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC West, including 0-9 ATS as an under- dog. Rams are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | 17-15 | Loss | -112 | 56 h 1 m | Show | |
Vegas woke up from a 3 game losing nightmare last time out with a big 36-33 win on TG Day vs the Dallas Cowboys and now have momentum going against a Washington side, off 3 straight wins, that were grueling in nature and Im sure took alot out of them. Now traveling from East to West will further their exhaustion ratio after a smash and grab Monday night game vs the Seahawks and makes them susceptible to a down effort in the desert this Sunday. Note: NFL sides coming off a straight up underdog victory on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS L/31 seasons vs opposition coming off a Monday Night tilt. LAS VEGAS is 10-0 ATS L/10 in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs . NFL team vs the money line (LAS VEGAS) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 47-16 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Las Vegas to cover |
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12-05-21 | Giants +4 v. Dolphins | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
I know how amazing and maybe also a little lucky the Dolphins have looked of late , as they have garnered four straight wins, but it must be noted that NYG own a 12-3 ATS record in their last fifteen games as a road dog and have cashed 16 of 20 ATS as a dog vs the AFC East . With that said, and not focusing on historical biases, I really like the way the Gmens D is playing, and Im betting they wreak havoc on Tua Tagovailoa and company. Also on the flip-side, despite of a maligned Giants offensive line QB Daniel Jones has remained minimally consistent enough to make the Giants competitive and considering Jones is 12-6 ATS in his career as a visitor I feel we have enough line value to pull the trigger on the road side. NYG is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Miami. GIANTS are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-25 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7 v. Lions | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
After jumping out to a a 7-0 lead last week the Vikings fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and , lost by a 34-12 score to the Niners last Sunday. Im betting that was an emotional letdown spot performance, after a huge win vs a very good Green bay side the week before. Now in redemption mode after that embarrassment Im betting on a motivated performance here by a red faced group vs a Detroit team that is extremely lucky to be even covering spreads of late. MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +4.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Dallas is struggling as is evident by their 1-3 SUATS mark in their last four tilts , while allowing an average of 28 points and 462 yards in the 3 losses. Note: Dallas is 0-7 ATS in games after allowing 35 or more points in its last time out. Meanwhile, New Orleans is also having difficulties having lost 4 straight games. Note: HC Sean Payton has never lost 5 straight games and cashed as an underdog SU/ATS the last two times this negative kind of run has been attached to his record. So Im betting the Saints will be ready to rumble vs a Cowboys side that suddenly does not look as cohesive as it did earlier this season. Payton is 50-20 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a conference home dog. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 6-34 L/38 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being out-rushed by 75 or more yards last game are 63-111 ATS L/38 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | 28-36 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
Matthew Stafford started the season strong but is now in a bit of a funk so now the entire NFL nation and the parrot broadcasters are all down on him. He has always been streaky but when he's on Stafford can supply alot of high octane downfield offense and that what Im betting on him doing in bounce back fashion this week after a ugly 31-10 loss at SF vs the 49ers a couple weeks ago. Personally I believe the Rams were in a huge letdown spot after a hardcore battle the previous week against Tennessee in a loss but now after a bye week will be well rested and ready for redemption and revenge for last years play off loss vs the banged up Packers. So Im not ready to throw the Rams under a bus just yet, and believe they matchup well here vs the Green Bay Packers. Note: Stafford has covered in four of his last five matchups vs Rodgers, and is 9-3 ATS coming off a bye week. Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. LA RAMS are 22-11 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 season. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Favorite has covered 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% con version rate for bettors. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 31-8 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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11-28-21 | Jets +2.5 v. Texans | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
Rookie Zach Wilson returns to the lineup after missing four games with a sprained right knee when the Jets visit the Houston Texans in a matchup of 2-8 teams. The rest Im betting did the young man some good, and now Im betting Wilsons head will be cleared enough to try to get some momentum going for him and his team. I know the Jets D is atrocious and against ground attacks are allowing 4.6 yards per rush this season, but the truth is this Texans team has almost no offensive flow, so to me they are fade material in a matchup that finally favors the Jets. HOUSTON is 18-33 ATS L/51 off a upset win as an underdog. HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12 vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season . HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 43-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Jets have covered 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
Both these sides can stop the run, with TB ranking high in that category, but one of these teams is better at stopping the pass and thats the Bucs. The Colts secondary is leaky and thats not a good omen vs what will be a motivated senior citizen in Tom Brady. I know Tampa has not played up to expectations on the road, but now we are into the nitty gritty part of the season, and this is where Im expecting future HOF QB Brady and company to shine. Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Arians is 15-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of TAMPA BAY. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg which easily qualifies on this short fav ATS line. Play on TB to cover |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
They both are dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thursday night in New Orleans which sets up well for a slower paced game. Two viable defenses go head to head in prime time football this Thanksgiving. Buffalo has allowed just 17.6 ppg and the Saints have given up an average of 21.8 ppg. Thursday home pups like the Saints have gone UNDER all 5 times this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg going on the board. Note: From a historical perspective it must be noted that the Saints have gone UNDER in in their last 9 Thursday nighters with a combined score of 39 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Buffalo was asleep at the wheel last week and were upset by a ugly 41-17 count by Indianapolis which Im betting will have them ready for a vigilant bounce back effort especially on D. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 30.9 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. McDermott is 12-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games on fieldturf. NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Thanksgiving nigh tilts have stayed lower scoring in 10 of the L/14 events staying below the offered total by an of 5.8 ppg, with the under cashing 6 straight times. Play UNDER |
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11-25-21 | Bears -3 v. Lions | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The Lions have a big reputation as Thanksgiving day money makers, but the truth it's usually when they are favs that they shine, but as dogs they have lost 12 straight times and covered only twice losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. I know Chicago may not inspire bettors but they are the superior side, and being very hungry for wins Im betting they dont pass up this opportunity to register a victory. Note: The Lions will start one of their woeful backups probably the horrendous looking Boyle this week and are down to just 3 healthy starting offensive lineman , so offensive continuity and scoring is going to be an issue. I know QB Fields may also not start for the Bears but to me veteran QB Dalton is a better option anyway . NFL Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg which qualifies from a. ATS level as well. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two struggling offensive teams (14-18 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 21-3 ATS L/38 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Chicago has won 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series and their L/2 visits to Motown . Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
The Giants’ defense is top form and have been really been stoppers in the last three weeks giving them the ability to be competitive against any NFL team even the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs . On the flip side, the giants rarely get much push from the offensive line but against shaky TB secondary I expect for some big plays and scores. With Big Blue getting healthy they are solid bets here to cover vs a Bucs side that is definitely not playing a top level at the moment. . Giants are 19-4 ATS L/23 as road underdogs. Judge is 8-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons. TB has lost 19 of its L/26 SU after two consecutive road losses. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 35-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - off a home win, a struggling team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season are 46-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NY Giants to cover |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 48 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 47 m | Show | |
We have a top tier West Division battle between Arizona and Seattle this Sunday afternoon, both were off losses with the Seahawks getting shutout . Seattle’s enters this game playing a top tier brand of defense football, allowing 13, 7, and 17 pts allowed in their last 3 games and come in with a having eclipsed the total just once in 9 games this season and were shutout last time out with a total of 17 points being scored . The average line of Seahawks tilts has been 48.9 with the average combined score clicking in at 40.7 ppg. Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games as an underdog. Whether QB Kyle Murray plays (ANKLE) or is less than 100% Im betting he is kept mostly at bey. It must be noted that NFL WEST DIVISION games L/37 seasons when the home team is an underdog of 6 pts or less the under has hit 75% plus of the time after game 8 or greater (15-49-1 UNDER ). Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as a road favorite.Under is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 games on fieldturf. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games ARE 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a struggling passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
Green Bays defense shined last time out with a 17-0 polishing of Seattle. Im expecting their D, to stand tall again this week in this key divisional battle vs Minnesota, a side of a hard fought victory last week vs the Chargers. Note: Minnesota has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their L/7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games. Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games overall.Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC. GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER (when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a combined average of 34.5 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games are 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season ere 42-14 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 45 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
I know the Jets D is atrocious but the Dolphins are not a team that can take huge advantage of this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are not trusting Mike White under center, and the play calling from the offensive coordinator is amateurish at best making futility the call here today and a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in home games versus struggling rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 41-14 UNDER vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . MIAMI is 61-39 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 35 points or more in 2 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 29-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 45 | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas has scored 9 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games and today if they can muster that many points Ill be surprised vs a Titans team that held KC to just 3 points a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Tennessee after 5 straight grueling games against top tier competition could end up using this game as a de-facto bye week, and not put the pedal to the metal or even be inclined to do so as they save some juice for the play offs . This equates to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. DD road dogs like Texas off their bye week have gone under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the gridiron when the total is 42 or more. Texans are 1-10 L/11 under as a road dog of 3 points or more. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-13 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-14 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Panthers -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
The Washington football team after upsetting the defending Super Bowl Champs last week will now in a huge emotional letdown situation on the road. It must be noted that sides off a upset of the defending Super Bowl champion by 10 or more points have covered just 3 of the 19 times when facing a .400 or better side like the Panthers in their following tilt. With Carolina looking like a viable side to back with Cam Newton or former XFL star QB PJ Walker under center Im recommedning we pull the trigger here and lay a few points with a team that has plenty of momentum and crowd support this Sunday. NFL Favorites (CAROLINA) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (27 or more PPG), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +6.5 | 25-0 | Loss | -102 | 59 h 24 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons suffered their worst loss in almost 20 years this past Sunday vs Dallas 43-3 and with that said it must be noted pros do not like to be embarrassed. Remember these NFL rosters are made up of some of the top athletes in the world, and they own some of the biggest egos on earth. Im expecting a big effort from the entire Falcons group here at home in this national broadcast tilt and what Ill peg as redemption night in Georgia. I know New England smashed Cleveland last time out by a 45-7 count , but a repeat performance is unlikely here as is Atlanta having another muted offensive effort. Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Patriots are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta to cover |
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11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 57 m | Show | |
The Broncos have won 2 straight games including a big upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Last weeks victory ended a 5 game streak where they lost they stats battle so Im not that impressed by the surprising win, as their over all work must be considered. I know Philadelphia may not inspire bettors but QB Jalen Hurts continues to improve, and hes a handful for most defenses, and according to my rankings he matches up well here and should have a good day as a dual threat pivot. Im betting Hurts will be the difference maker today. Denver has failed to cover 16 of their 24 games as a home favorite in tilts after winning straight-up as a dog, including 1-10-1 ATS if they are off back to back SUATS wins. DENVER is 17-38 ATS L/55 in home games off a non-conference game. NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team 1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 46-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Eagles to cover |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets +13 | 45-17 | Loss | -124 | 54 h 15 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bills lost in shocking fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out with a bizarre 9-6 score attached to it. Buffalo is now 0-3 ATS this season as double-digit road favorites. I know many expect, the now inconsistent Bills to come out here spitting bullets ,as they look for a quick redemption result, but laying almost two TDs in a divisional road game seems a bit much in my opinion. Especially with NYJ incumbent QB Mike White under center. With that said, the Jets will not easy targets and get my support here getting points as a home dog. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.Jets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 8-29 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
RB Adrian Peterson who has lots of miles on him is now the Titans No.1 running back as Tennessee’ has to move forward without the injured Derrick Henry for at least the rest of the regular season . That will be a difficult transition for a offense that leans hard on Henry to move the chains. Yes, I know the Titans have played smash mouth football of late against top tier competition, but that kind of action takes a toll on a team, and now this week against the Saints Im betting we see some exhaustion play a part in making the Titans vulnerable home favs. Note: NFL teams like Tennessee off 4 straight underdog wins have covered just 1 of their L/7 opportunities as favs in their followup tilt. TENNESSEE is also just 3-15 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog which was the case after a DD win vs the Rams last week. NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-62 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -100 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
,Arizona had their perfect 7-0 season come to an abrupt end last time out and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot. The Cards are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games when coming off a SU home chalk loss and have lost 8 of their L/9 overall in tilts after playing against the Green Bay Packers. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo looking healthy and off a strong performance last time ( 17-of-28 for 322 yards) I like the 49ers chances in this spot play. With the Niners 4-0 ATS at home in a key division game vs a team off a Thursday night game Im liking our chances.ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 season.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on SF 49ers to cover |