Buccaneers -5.5 vs Kansas City

This one is not subtle. One team is playing football. The other is protecting a quarterback.

Mahomes is sitting. Fields starts. Kansas City is rotating the rest of the night like a walkthrough that happens to have officials. Tampa Bay is at home and will give Baker a short look, then keep competing. That rest gap is the whole bet.

Minus 5.5 at typical -230 moneyline juice is about a 69.7 percent implied win probability. That is a lot of juice. The spread is the better number because you do not need Tampa Bay to look pretty for four quarters. You need them to cash an early lead while Kansas City is still deciding who is allowed to throw the ball.

Preseason games this time of year often die in the second half. The team that scores first with real players usually keeps enough of that lead. Five and a half is a touchdown minus a point. If Tampa Bay’s first group punches in a score and Kansas City’s first group is not on the field, that is how you cover ugly numbers.

Home favorites this big are not automatic. This one is less about Tampa Bay being a machine and more about Kansas City treating Saturday like a practice that happens to have a scoreboard.

Bucs -5.5. The Chiefs brought a clipboard. Tampa Bay at least brought a quarterback who is allowed to play.

NFLX Prop Report

Preseason props are a different animal. The board is thin, the lines are soft, and half the value comes from knowing who is actually staying in the game longer than the coaches claim.

Saturday’s slate has a few spots where the rest plans are clear enough to work with. Most of the interesting numbers live in the Chiefs-Buccaneers game and a couple of the afternoon contests where young quarterbacks are getting real snaps.

Baker Mayfield anytime touchdown is the cleanest one on the board. Tampa Bay is at home and Todd Bowles has already said the starters will play a series or two. Mayfield does not need a full half. He needs one red-zone trip against a Kansas City defense that is missing most of its important pieces. Preseason anytime TD prices on a starter who is confirmed to play still get treated like lottery tickets by the public. They are not. One clean series is often enough.

Justin Fields over a low passing-yard number sits right next to it. Patrick Mahomes is sitting again. Fields is the planned starter and will see the first quarter at minimum. Books usually hang something in the 75-to-100 yard range for this kind of spot. That is the kind of number a quarterback reaches with two decent drives. The Chiefs are not trying to win the game. They are trying to evaluate the next guy. That usually means the ball gets thrown enough times for the over to be live.

Over in Cleveland, Shedeur Sanders is expected to see early and meaningful work against Buffalo. Mobile quarterbacks in preseason Week 2 often get priced like they are pure drop-back passers. The rushing-yard overs and anytime TD props on those guys have been some of the better spots all summer. If Sanders is under center for any extended stretch, the legs become the real bet.

The rest of the card is mostly about volume for the second- and third-string running backs once the starters come out. Night games especially. When the first units are done, the backups suddenly see 10 or 12 carries. Books still price those 25- and 30-yard rushing props conservatively. The ones that hit are usually the backs who were already getting work in practice and are clearly next on the depth chart.

A quick word of caution. Passing-yard props for true third-stringers are usually traps unless the number is absurdly low. Stick to the guys who are either starting or clearly next up. Anytime TD prices on skill players who will see the second half are higher variance, but the prices are often better than the actual chance of them finding the end zone in a game that has already been decided.

Preseason prop betting is half evaluation and half guessing who the coaches leave out there. The edge comes from the games where the rest plans are already public and the lines still act like everyone might sit. Chiefs-Buccaneers is the clearest example on the Saturday card. Start there.

. Ravens +3.5 at Minnesota

Baltimore on the road in August has been one of the few preseason trends that still feels like it has a pulse.

The Ravens are 19-5-1 ATS in road exhibitions. After a win they are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21. Minnesota is a good program. They are also a home favorite because the building is indoors and the calendar says Saturday, not because their backups are suddenly a Super Bowl team.

Small dogs have been the play for a decade. Plus-1 to plus-3 sides have covered almost 60 percent of the time since 2015. Road teams overall have a slight ATS edge because books still charge for home field like this is Week 12 in January.

Ravens plus money around +140 implies about 41.7 percent to win the game. The spread is doing the work. You need them to stay inside a field goal and a half. That is a much easier ask than “beat Minnesota on the road with the third-stringers.”

At standard juice, 52.4 percent is the line in the sand. Baltimore’s road sample has been well north of that for a long time. It will not last forever. It has lasted long enough that fading it on a 3.5-point number feels like arguing with the last ten years of tape.

Ravens +3.5. The Vikings get the crowd. Baltimore gets the points. In August, take the points.

NFLX Prop Report

Preseason props are a different animal. The board is thin, the lines are soft, and half the value comes from knowing who is actually staying in the game longer than the coaches claim.

Saturday’s slate has a few spots where the rest plans are clear enough to work with. Most of the interesting numbers live in the Chiefs-Buccaneers game and a couple of the afternoon contests where young quarterbacks are getting real snaps.

Baker Mayfield anytime touchdown is the cleanest one on the board. Tampa Bay is at home and Todd Bowles has already said the starters will play a series or two. Mayfield does not need a full half. He needs one red-zone trip against a Kansas City defense that is missing most of its important pieces. Preseason anytime TD prices on a starter who is confirmed to play still get treated like lottery tickets by the public. They are not. One clean series is often enough.

Justin Fields over a low passing-yard number sits right next to it. Patrick Mahomes is sitting again. Fields is the planned starter and will see the first quarter at minimum. Books usually hang something in the 75-to-100 yard range for this kind of spot. That is the kind of number a quarterback reaches with two decent drives. The Chiefs are not trying to win the game. They are trying to evaluate the next guy. That usually means the ball gets thrown enough times for the over to be live.

Over in Cleveland, Shedeur Sanders is expected to see early and meaningful work against Buffalo. Mobile quarterbacks in preseason Week 2 often get priced like they are pure drop-back passers. The rushing-yard overs and anytime TD props on those guys have been some of the better spots all summer. If Sanders is under center for any extended stretch, the legs become the real bet.

The rest of the card is mostly about volume for the second- and third-string running backs once the starters come out. Night games especially. When the first units are done, the backups suddenly see 10 or 12 carries. Books still price those 25- and 30-yard rushing props conservatively. The ones that hit are usually the backs who were already getting work in practice and are clearly next on the depth chart.

A quick word of caution. Passing-yard props for true third-stringers are usually traps unless the number is absurdly low. Stick to the guys who are either starting or clearly next up. Anytime TD prices on skill players who will see the second half are higher variance, but the prices are often better than the actual chance of them finding the end zone in a game that has already been decided.

Preseason prop betting is half evaluation and half guessing who the coaches leave out there. The edge comes from the games where the rest plans are already public and the lines still act like everyone might sit. Chiefs-Buccaneers is the clearest example on the Saturday card. Start there.

Bills +3 at Cleveland

Cleveland laying three at home in August is the kind of number that looks respectable until you remember who actually plays these games.

The Browns are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home preseason games. As a favorite they are 1-9 ATS in their last ten. Buffalo is 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS as a preseason dog. That is not a vibe. That is a pattern.

League-wide, dogs in the +1 to +3 window are 190-128 ATS since 2015. That is 59.7 percent. Road dogs of 2.5 or less are 84-43, which is 66.1 percent. Home field in the preseason is mostly a parking-lot advantage and a slightly louder PA guy.

If you want the simple math: at -110 you need about 52.4 percent covers just to break even. A 59.7 percent hit rate is the difference between treading water and actually getting paid. Bills moneyline in the +125 to +135 range implies roughly 42 to 44 percent to win outright. Nobody is asking them to win. They just have to not get run off by Cleveland’s second team, which has not been a strength of the franchise lately.

Bills +3. Three points is a field goal and a prayer. Cleveland has been giving those away at home for years.

NFLX Prop Report

Preseason props are a different animal. The board is thin, the lines are soft, and half the value comes from knowing who is actually staying in the game longer than the coaches claim.

Saturday’s slate has a few spots where the rest plans are clear enough to work with. Most of the interesting numbers live in the Chiefs-Buccaneers game and a couple of the afternoon contests where young quarterbacks are getting real snaps.

Baker Mayfield anytime touchdown is the cleanest one on the board. Tampa Bay is at home and Todd Bowles has already said the starters will play a series or two. Mayfield does not need a full half. He needs one red-zone trip against a Kansas City defense that is missing most of its important pieces. Preseason anytime TD prices on a starter who is confirmed to play still get treated like lottery tickets by the public. They are not. One clean series is often enough.

Justin Fields over a low passing-yard number sits right next to it. Patrick Mahomes is sitting again. Fields is the planned starter and will see the first quarter at minimum. Books usually hang something in the 75-to-100 yard range for this kind of spot. That is the kind of number a quarterback reaches with two decent drives. The Chiefs are not trying to win the game. They are trying to evaluate the next guy. That usually means the ball gets thrown enough times for the over to be live.

Over in Cleveland, Shedeur Sanders is expected to see early and meaningful work against Buffalo. Mobile quarterbacks in preseason Week 2 often get priced like they are pure drop-back passers. The rushing-yard overs and anytime TD props on those guys have been some of the better spots all summer. If Sanders is under center for any extended stretch, the legs become the real bet.

The rest of the card is mostly about volume for the second- and third-string running backs once the starters come out. Night games especially. When the first units are done, the backups suddenly see 10 or 12 carries. Books still price those 25- and 30-yard rushing props conservatively. The ones that hit are usually the backs who were already getting work in practice and are clearly next on the depth chart.

A quick word of caution. Passing-yard props for true third-stringers are usually traps unless the number is absurdly low. Stick to the guys who are either starting or clearly next up. Anytime TD prices on skill players who will see the second half are higher variance, but the prices are often better than the actual chance of them finding the end zone in a game that has already been decided.

Preseason prop betting is half evaluation and half guessing who the coaches leave out there. The edge comes from the games where the rest plans are already public and the lines still act like everyone might sit. Chiefs-Buccaneers is the clearest example on the Saturday card. Start there.

Packers +6.5 / +7 at Denver

Denver is laying 6.5 to 7 after a 27-7 win, 34 points of margin last week, the number opened around 3.5 and got bet out a full score, Green Bay lost 28-9, allowed 313 passing yards, scored 9, that is a 19-point gap on the scoreboard and a 216-yard gap through the air, +7 still asks Denver to win by 8 after the first units sit, league-wide preseason dogs of 6 or more have covered more than the chalk prices once backups take over, Denver is 16-4 straight up and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 as preseason favorites, 80 percent SU, about 74 percent ATS, that is a real home bump, it is not automatic touchdown cover juice.

Packers are 2-10 in their last 12 at Mile High, 16.7 percent, they have dropped 8 of their last 10 SU as preseason dogs and sit 2-7-1 ATS in that role, 22 percent ATS, so the number has to be fat, 7 is fat, simple math, plus-7 is implied around 72-75 percent on Denver, 27 plus 7 is 34 from last week, 28 plus 9 is 37 from Pittsburgh, two loud scores do not make a 7-point tax automatic, I am taking the points, that is the play.

Jacksonville won 24-20, 4-point margin, Carolina lost 29-14, 15-point margin, 43 total, plus-2.5 is a pick’em with juice, implied around 47-48 percent on the dog, league-wide short road dogs in the exhibition have been live when the home side is not a talent gap, Jags are 1-0 by 4, not a gap, Carolina already has a Hall of Fame game and a blowout on the legs, extra wear.

2.5 points is one field goal, 24 plus 20 is 44, 29 plus 14 is 43, both games already lived near or over this total, the spread is the play not the total, simple math, plus-2.5 is risk 110 to win 100, you only need a one-score game, 15-point loss last week does not make a 2.5-point home favorite a lock, I have faded too many 2-point August chalk spots, I am taking the points, that is the play.

    Dallas Cowboys +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks

The real value in this number sits with Dallas getting three points, and the historical ledger makes that case stronger the deeper you dig into the data. League-wide, preseason underdogs in the plus-one to plus-three range have covered at a 59.7 percent clip since 2015, going 190-128, which means nearly six covers out of every ten decisions when you run the simple division of 190 by 318. That edge grows even sharper with road underdogs of 2.5 points or less, a group that has produced roughly a 66 percent cover rate across large multi-year samples, including strong recent seasons.

Home-field advantage has been overstated for years in these tight August spreads. Across the last 14 preseason cycles, home teams have finished better than .500 against the spread in only four of those years, and the overall road-side edge since 2011 sits around 52.5 percent. Three points becomes a meaningful cushion once starters exit and the second and third units take over, because those groups tend to trade mistakes, short fields, and conservative play-calling that keep final margins closer than the market often prices.

Dallas has carried a rough overall preseason mark for more than a decade, sitting near 12-29-3 against the spread in broader samples and posting just a 2-18 straight-up and 4-16 ATS record on the road since 2012. Yet those long-term struggles actually reinforce the underdog angle here rather than undermine it. When a team that has historically underperformed gets three full points in a spot where the league-wide dog trends already favor the visitor, the mathematical case improves. Seattle’s home exhibitions have leaned lower-scoring in multiple recent stretches, which further supports a side that only needs to stay within a field goal.

I like Dallas plus three because the combination of the 59.7 percent underdog cover rate, the stronger road-dog results in the 2.5-or-less range, and the consistent overpricing of home field in tight preseason lines all point the same direction. Preseason football is messy by design, starters leave early, and the final score often lands closer than expected. Backing a dog that carries both the historical percentage and a real three-point margin of safety feels like the cleaner side of this number. Sometimes the best plays are the ones that simply respect what the multi-year ledger has already shown, and right now that ledger is leaning toward the Cowboys getting the points.

There’s a certain peace that comes from locking in a road dog getting a full touchdown in the first week of the preseason, and Tampa Bay at the Jets is exactly that spot. Road underdogs of six or more points have gone 61-42 ATS since 2015, a 59.2 percent clip with an average cover margin of 3.4 points, and the market still shades these lines toward the home side because square money can’t help itself. The Jets’ second and third units have allowed 13.1 points per half across their last ten preseason home games, while Tampa’s corresponding group has surrendered just 9.7. That’s a 3.4-point differential that maps almost perfectly onto the current number. Public handle is running 68 percent on the home favorite, steam has been light the other way, and the closing-line value equation is staring you in the face. I run the same little formula every August, base cover rate times historical margin minus the juice, and this one still lands positive. It isn’t sexy, it isn’t loud, it’s just the kind of sharp action that has kept me in the game longer than most of the loud voices. The Buccaneers getting the points is the side I’m riding.

There’s a certain peace that comes from locking in a road dog getting a full touchdown in the first week of the preseason, and Tampa Bay at the Jets is exactly that spot. Road underdogs of six or more points have gone 61-42 ATS since 2015, a 59.2 percent clip with an average cover margin of 3.4 points, and the market still shades these lines toward the home side because square money can’t help itself. The Jets’ second and third units have allowed 13.1 points per half across their last ten preseason home games, while Tampa’s corresponding group has surrendered just 9.7. That’s a 3.4-point differential that maps almost perfectly onto the current number. Public handle is running 68 percent on the home favorite, steam has been light the other way, and the closing-line value equation is staring you in the face. I run the same little formula every August, base cover rate times historical margin minus the juice, and this one still lands positive. It isn’t sexy, it isn’t loud, it’s just the kind of sharp action that has kept me in the game longer than most of the loud voices. The Buccaneers getting the points is the side I’m riding.

I’ve been locked on Thursday’s entire preseason slate since the first snap-count notes came out and the Titans still sit alone at the top as a -4.5 favorite. This one is pure data, historical cover rates, coaching-reunion trends, and the same August patterns that have paid me for years.

League-wide preseason betting trends show home teams have won 52.7 percent of all games over the last 12 seasons, yet that edge softens when the visitor holds a clear starter-snap advantage and is also the side laying the points. The average first-team package in Week 1 has sat between 9 and 14 snaps since 2015. When one side pushes past 18 starter snaps while the other stays under 12, that higher-usage club has covered the number in 57.4 percent of those spots across the last decade. Road favorites in preseason who also hold the snap edge have covered at a 55.9 percent clip over the same stretch when the line sits between 3.5 and 6.5.

The snap numbers I use are not post-game tracking. They come from the public coaching statements and the historical baselines those statements map onto. Saleh has said Tennessee will play nearly the full roster, starters included, for more than a single series. That language has historically translated into the 19-23 starter-snap range once the game is played. The 49ers have operated the opposite way in early August for years, often limiting key pieces to one drive or less, which lands them in the 8-11 snap window more often than not. If those ranges hold, the ratio clears 1.8. In the 41 preseason games since 2016 where the road side held a similar double-digit snap edge, that club covered at a 56.1 percent rate and won outright 48.8 percent of the time. The simple adjustment I run looks like this:

Adjusted Cover Rate=0.527+0.038×(Visitor Starter Snaps−Home Starter Snaps10) \text{Adjusted Cover Rate} = 0.527 + 0.038 \times \left( \frac{\text{Visitor Starter Snaps} - \text{Home Starter Snaps}}{10} \right) Adjusted Cover Rate=0.527+0.038×(10Visitor Starter Snaps−Home Starter Snaps)

When the difference hits 10 or more the edge becomes real money, even when the visitor is the one laying 4.5 points.

The coaching-reunion layer adds another measurable bump. Former coordinators facing their old clubs in the preseason have covered at a 55.2 percent clip over the last decade. When that coordinator returns as a head coach the number rises to 56.8 percent in the limited sample of 19 such games since 2014. Saleh spent years building the 49ers defense. That familiarity shows up in preparation, schematic comfort, and the ability to anticipate tendencies more often than the public prices in, giving the Titans an extra schematic edge while they are already the side expected to stay on the field longer.

I ran the same filter across the rest of Thursday’s board. The Bengals plan to play starters while the Lions rest most of theirs, already reflected in a heavy home number. Green Bay and Pittsburgh both look locked into limited first-team work after the opening series. The Colts and Patriots are in the same backup-heavy territory. Chargers and Texans coaches have both signaled restraint with the top units. The Cardinals and Raiders offer a mild home evaluation edge but nothing that matches the clean snap differential plus coaching-reunion angle in Santa Clara.

Preseason favorites laying between 3.5 and 6.5 points have covered 53.6 percent of the time over the last eight seasons when they also hold a clear starter-snap advantage. Road sides that held a measurable starter-snap advantage have gone 61-46 against the number in the last nine preseason openers where the usage gap was clear. Stack the projected snap edge with the reunion trend and the numbers line up cleaner than anything else on the board, even with Tennessee sitting as a -4.5 favorite.

Preseason still carries plenty of noise. Special teams and third-string mistakes decide a lot of these. But the historical betting trends on who stays on the field longer, combined with the coaching-reunion data, have been two of the few consistent edges I’ve tracked across more than a decade of August games. The methodology is straightforward: take the coach’s stated intent, map it against the long-term snap averages for Week 1 packages, then measure the differential against the historical cover rates those differentials have produced. Tennessee is the side with the longer leash, the extra schematic familiarity, and the cleaner path to covering -4.5 this week. I’ve taken enough of these quiet rotational spots to know they rarely look flashy on the board. This one just feels solid. I’m on the Titans.

Free Week 1 Preseason Newsletter -Covering all games

Trends, Sharp Plays & Props for Thursday’s NFL Preseason Slate (Because nothing says “August football” like starters for a series, backups for the rest, and lines that still somehow matter)

We’re deep into the 2026 preseason, and the patterns are sharpening up. Thursday’s board is built on snap distribution more than talent. Home teams still hold a soft edge (around 52.7% over the last 12 seasons), but that edge shrinks the moment the visitor keeps starters on the field longer. Average first-team packages in Week 1 still sit between 9–14 snaps. When one side pushes past 18 while the other stays under 12, the higher-usage club has covered in 57.4% of those spots. Road underdogs or short favorites with clear snap advantages continue to cash at elevated rates. Here’s the no-BS breakdown with real trends, sharp angles, and props that stand out.

Starter-snap edges matter more than name recognition this time of year. Coaching-reunion games carry a quiet bump (former coordinators facing their old clubs have covered at 55.2%). Special teams and third-string mistakes still decide a lot of these, but the teams that actually play their guys longer keep winning the number more often than the public prices. Watch announced playing-time plans, rest, and schematic familiarity.

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers (Titans -4.5) Saleh has said Tennessee will play nearly the full roster, starters included, for more than a single series. That language historically maps to the 19–23 starter-snap range. The 49ers have limited key pieces to one drive or less in early August for years, landing them in the 8–11 window. The projected snap ratio clears 1.8. Road sides with double-digit snap edges have covered 56.1% since 2016. The coaching-reunion layer (Saleh vs. his old defense) adds another measurable bump, rising to 56.8% when the coordinator returns as head coach.

My Plays: • Titans -4.5 (snap edge + reunion) BEST BET • Titans Team Total Over if available • Prop angle: Titans first-team offensive snaps Over / 49ers first-team defensive snaps Under

Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions Bengals plan to play starters while the Lions rest most of theirs. Already reflected in a heavy home number. Classic limited-usage home spot.

My Plays: • Lean Bengals side or under if the number gets too big on Detroit • Prop: Bengals starter package Over snaps

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Both clubs look locked into limited first-team work after the opening series. Expect backup-heavy football and special-teams noise.

My Plays: • Lean Under the total • Prop: Combined first-team snaps Under

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Same backup-heavy territory on both sides. Evaluation game more than competitive edge.

My Plays: • Lean Under or the dog if the line creeps • Prop: Any featured backup RB Over rushing yards

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Both coaches have signaled restraint with the top units. Another limited-snap affair.

My Plays: • Lean Under • Prop: Chargers or Texans first-team packages Under

Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders Mild home evaluation edge for the Raiders, but nothing that matches the clean snap differential in Santa Clara.

My Plays: • Lean Raiders side if the number stays small • Prop: Home special-teams or kicking props

Snap advantage is still the cleanest preseason edge available. Coaching-reunion spots quietly outperform. Unders stay playable when both sides announce limited starter packages. Special teams and third-string mistakes remain the noise that can wreck a good number. Shop every line, confirm final playing-time plans (things flip quick), and treat these as rotational edges rather than true talent plays.

Preseason rewards the side that actually stays on the field longer. Double-check the final snap notes, shop numbers, and bet responsibly. May your tickets stay green while August delivers. Let’s cash some winners.

Game of the Week

QB Bo Nix continues to impress and camp, and  Broncos backup  Stidham has been   solid completing  30-of-38 for 376 yards with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio in preseason action.  Add to that the other backup Ehlinger is 20-of-26 for 217 yards and a TD with zero picks and you have a trio of QBs that can do some damage and Im betting that will happen tonight here in the Bayou vs the Saints. Lets not forget how solid and deep the Broncos D is, and how hard its been to get the offense rolling for the Saints.  Everything points to a Denver win and ocver.

-Outright winners are  38-1-1 ATS run in Broncos preseason games and are   15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in the last 19 as a preseason chalks spots.

NFL teams like Denver coming off preseason victory of 20 or more  points and favored are on a 29-7 SU and 24-10-1 ATS  dating back 12 years. 

Play on Denver

Its very important to note that the Browns are  10-0-1 ATS since 2017, as well as 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 as a NFLX underdog roles. Considering the Eagles HC  Siriani doesnt seem to care much about winning preseason football games, as is evident by his 4-7-2 mark the value play here goes with the Browns, vs a defensing champion side that is more interested in staying healthy than getting victory here, especially after their 34-27 win last week. 

Play on the Browns to cover

Houston has a lot of depth so matter how much of the starters we see on both sides of the ball you will  see stability and  consistency. I know which side is perceived as superior ( Vikings) but this Texans group can hang here and Im betting they get us the cover. HC Ryan  in  preseason as a head coach, owns a SU 5-2 record, and his teams have gone 2-1 in Week 1 of preseason. Houston has also  won its last six true road preseason games SU and ATS, holding opponents to an average of  12.5 PPG.

Play on the Texans to cover

This is Dave Canales' second year as Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers and he went 0-3 the first time around and Im not sure why this Carolina team should be this big a fav no matter what the circumstances might be which includes extra time for starters .The news about Shedeur Sanders is over hyped and that gives us a nice underdog situation to back with a Cleveland team that has enough talent to be competitive including the QB postion where they will be alot of competition for the staring job this season. ( In other words the Browns QBs will be primed to perform).

Take the points with the Browns

The Lions are going to run new offensive and defensive systems this season, and with little no starters in the lineup, I cant really see them being favorites here . Meanwhile, the the QB backup depth chart for Chargers HC  Harbaugh , with Taylor Heinicke (29 career starts), Trey Lance (5) and rookie DJ Uiagalelei superior to the Lions QB backup rotation giving us an edge. Also the running game looks to be deep and above average this season and gives them a key edge in this early season appetizer. Note" Motown have been favored  six times in their last 18 exhibition games, lsoing SU in 5 of 6 , and batting .000 and 0-5-1 ATS record. NFLX HOF underdogs,,  are on a 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS run dating back to the 2013 seasons. ( *Some Canton Ohio , games during this span were canceled) 

Play on the Chargers to cover

The Vikings have put up  24 and 27 points against the Raiders and Browns in their first two preseason games. Meanwhile, the Eagles  have looked lackluster from a  offensive perspective  putting up a  combined points 30 pts in their first two preseason games. Both sides are not expected to see alot of starters playing much of this game, but the Vikings depth charts are not to be underestimated and is very competitive . With that said, Ill take the points here with the Vikings.  The Philadelphia Eagles are   0-6-1 SU and 0-7 ATS L/7  at home in the preseason.  The Eagles are also  5-13-2 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 preseason games overall. 

Play on the Minnesota  Vikings to cover 

Carolina head coach Dave Canales says he hopes his starters will play, but how much does that really matter. This team according to NFL projections should finsih near the bottom of the league this season. The Panthers have managed just 15 points total and only one TD in preseason ball and project to continue to struggle against a deep Buffalo D. QB quarterback Bryce Young struggled  last season, and despite of some good looks in scrimmages against the Jets earlier this week, still has to show he can avoid being sacked - Note: Young took 62 sacks last season losing a  league-high 477 yards. I know we will mostly see backups today for the Bills , but I just dont trust the Panthers to do enough damage here to cover the number. Note: BUFFALO has won 10 of their  11 straight up  and ATS   as a preseason underdog. 

Play on Buffalo to cover

The 49ers have been pretty banged up in preseason , and Im betting they will be conservative with the amount of time key starters will get and their overall physicality . Its being said that Brock Purdy will play this game  for the Raiders but I doubt he gets extended snaps. With Dobbs now expected to be Purdy's backup Im expecting the back end of the QB rotation to play extended time for the 49ers tonight which will not see them as proficient offensively as many might expect. On the flipside Im betting  QB O’Connell, who  has gone 21-of-29 in the preseason and Gardner Minshew to see a fairly decent amount of playing time and to do some damage here.Las Vegas  has won seven of the last eight preseason home games straight up and against the spread , holding opponents to just  10.7 PPG.

Play on the Raiders to cover

The Tampa Bay Bucs played their starters last week, and they should see very little time this week if they play at all. Meanwhile,  Fins have a deep team especially on offense, and have the depth  horses to compete here. Darting back to the 2015 preseason, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range have recorded a  record of 176-114 ATS for a 61% conversion rate.  Dating back 11 seasons the Buccaneers are  4-15 ATS in home preseason games.  Road teams have won the last five ATS in preseason head-to-head series. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover

The Bengals are not expected to use many  or any of their starters tonight as  coach Zac Taylor is not a risk taker and wants his team healthy for the start of the season.  Meanwhile,  Indianapolis plans to give starters on both sides of ball viable minutes in this one. The Bengals D, was bad last season, and things dont project to get much better this season, and the depth is also a key issue. Im betting the Indianapolis QB group should easily get the ball rolling down field and do some real damage while their D, will be just fine vs backups. Motivation seems to hold here with the the Colts. Since the 2010 campaign favs  of -3.5 to -7 points  have been  a profitable venture, recording a   150-119-4 ATS mark. 

Colts to cover

Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo is organizing his team talent charts , and we will see alot of the up and coming talent the Pats of amassed here this evening against the visiting  Philadelphia Eagles 

Since HC Sirianni took the helm of the Eagles they have lost 6 of their 8 preseason affairs and despite of owning recent scrimmages vs the Patriots this week, Sirianni is not expected to play any of his key cogs for the upcoming season, Backup to Jalen Heurts  QB Kenny Pickett had a great game last week, but is also expected to sit this week. The Pats have a QB competition underway so aggressive offensive work should be expected along with what is a very good defense. Everything points to a Pats win and cover.

 The Eagles   are just  4-13-2 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 preseason trips to the gridiron. 

New England  has won the last three ATS in the preseason head-to-head series.

Play on NE Patriots

The coaching staff of the Colts said  Richardson and the starters are expected to play " a few series in the game,  including the starting offensive line, which will play with Richardson.

Richardson completed 60% of his pass attempts last season( before getting injured ) while posting a QBR of 45 in 173 total snaps and is a top tier QB that sees the field well. I know the Broncos QB Bo Nix will be getting all the attention, but the truth is despite of some changes that were made in Indianapolis- this is still a very under rated squad that deserves respect here today.

The Colts are  8-0-3 ATS  as a preseason underdog.   

Play on Indianapolis 

 Tennessee Titans take a new direction  this season with Mike Vrabel having moved on as  head coach and star RB Derrick Henry now with the  Baltimore Ravens. Its expected that he Titans' quarterback, Will Levis, will play a few sets for the his team, and Mason Rudolph to also take some snaps. Im betting with the new formations and coaching the Titans will have problems moving the ball here early in preseason action and for the deeper side (49ers) with more talent to dominate the line of scrimmage in this tilt. I know the 49ers will not play starters, and alot of key backups are banged up  and that the Titans will be motivated to perform for a new coach, but /i dont like their depth. Not saying that Tennessee cannot find the win colum, just betting this si to many points.  SF are on a 6-0-1 ATS run as preseason underdog and get  the nod here again tonight. 

Play on SF 49er to cover

There are alot of questions that have to be asked about the Pats offense, as they go with a new QB and some changes to the  coaching staff. But what remains solid is their D.  Spanning the L/2 seasons  the Patriots are the fourth-best defensive team in  EPA metrics and tonight this inconsistent Carolina offensive line is going to have problems containing this deep group. Also as of now my projections estimate that the Panthers will be at the bottom of the entire NFL standings this season. 

Play on the Pats to cover

The Bears have won the L/6 games in this preseason series SU, and according to my projections deserve respect here a dogs vs a Colts side that 2-14-2 ATS L/18 preseason home games. I know Bears QB Justin Fields is not expected to play this game, but despite of lines-makers lack of respect of the rest of Bears QB group, Im willing to take the points on what to me is exaggerated line favoring the Colts. Also during joint scrim-ages with the Colts there were some cheap shots taken on Fields and now I expecting a more motivated version of the Bears to show up here in this preseason affair. 

NFLX Road teams (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record in the preseason are 35-13 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

  The Browns have  have faired well in preseason football of late , garnering a  14-4 SU  record  since 2017, and are currently on a  6-0-1 ATS run  when getting points in the underdog role.  .Kevin Stefanski has a viable preseason record of 5-3 SU during his tenure as Browns head coach and seems to take even scrimmages very seriously . I know the Browns will probably not start their starting QB but the battle between  Kellen Mond and Dorian Thompson-Robinson should make for aggressive outing from a Cleveland side that wants to get their offense rolling. Note:  Eagles are 0-5 SUATS L5 preseason home games and are just .2-9 SU/ATS in Thursday tilts. 

NFLX road sides after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games  dating back 31 seasons. (This happened last time out in a 17-15 loss to Washington)

Play on Cleveland to cover 

San Francisco and Las Vegas participated in joint practices ahead of their preseason opener Sunday in the desert, and in scrim-ages  the Raiders defense forced multiple interceptions from Purdy, and other 49ers QBs and Im betting they continue those efforts here today. The 49ers listed Lance and Sam Darnold as their No. 2 quarterbacks in this game, and Im betting both struggle against a hungry group of Raiders. Defense trumps offense here today. 

The Raiders 6-0 SUATS L6 preseason HGs and must be respected here getting points  vs the SF 49ers. 

Play on Raiders to cover 

 HC Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff looked more concerned with just  getting the gears started on the Packers proverbial football machine than finding a way to win last time out.(SF 28- GB 21)  But  this week Im betting the old ball coach looks at putting his team in a winning frame of mind as we head into week 2 of preseason NFL football. This is a  rematch of a ugly  38-3 loss in the 2021 season opener at New Orleans. It was LaFleur‘s and also  QB Aaron Rodgers’ most lopsided loss in their NFL careers.  It must be noted that the Saints new head coach Dennis Allen is  0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS away in previous nfl preseason tilts. With that said Im betting on Green Bay to improve to 6-0 SUATS vs the Saints in nflx action.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 

The Dolphins are starting a new era with first-year head coach Mike McDaniel and Im betting the new guy on the block will want to make a statement by winning right out of the gate here in preseason play. Giving his side a positive landmark moving forward could be key here. Dolphins players are still talking about their 45-17 beatdown at the hands of the Bucs in last seasons meeting, and sound pumped to have a much better showing even though this is just preseason play. In two head to head scrimmages with TB the Fins looked pretty good, and with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson splitting reps for Miami will be viable threats to move the ball and score some points vs a Bucs side that is exploring depth players and  possible positions upgrades for their opening day roster. Im betting the more focused and motivated side gets is to the promise land tonight in Florida. 

Note: The   visitor 11-1 ATS  in this series and Miami is   5-0 ATS vs NFC South.

The Bucs are 1-7 SU L/8  Game One preseason tilts. 

Play on Miami to cover

New Giants  head coach Brian Daboll will want to make a statement right out of the gate with some aggressive offensive football so I expect QBs Taylor , Webb and even Jones should see some time right out of the gate in preseason ball. Daboll is well known for his advanced offensive systems , and should do enough damage here to get us to the promised land vs a New England side that is said to be having troubles with chemistry on offense so far in preseason scrimmages. 

Gmen are 6-1 ATS L/7  in this series dating back 23 seasons   / visitor 9-2 SUATS. 

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

The Saints enter this preseason game going 2-10 ATS L12 vs NFC opposition   Meanwhile, Baltimore is  5-0 ATS L5 in this series and overall under Harbaugh have been absolute beasts in NFLX play accumulating a  21-3 ATS  run over the L/6 seasons. The Ravens are currently on a 17-game preseason winning streak. When considering the starting lineup options and backups I conclusively estimate the Raves win vs a Saints team going through some remolding by a FG or more.... giving us value on this number.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

Its only preseason ball but the Bears are pretty banged up with a huge injury list on both sides of the ball. I know QB Justin /Fields will make his debut here today and there is alot of hype surrounding his appearance, but he cant win this game on his own, and his backup Andy Dalton despite of being experienced is far from being in his prime. Meanwhile, the Miami dolphins HC Flores looks like he takes preseason ball seriously having gone 3-0 so far with the Fins, and with the solid QB duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett on the field the underdogs look like viable bets. 

Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.Dolphins are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

Play on the Dolphins to cover

  Pittsburgh has already played one tilt in the preseason (Hall ofFame Game), and they were dominant winning a 16-3 decision vs the Dallas Cowboys . Here today against the new look Eagles, who have a new coach ( Nick Sirianni) and a revamped offense behind Jalen Hurts the more prepared Steelers and their iron curtain D, look like solid preseason bets. I know its difficult to predict how much of both teams starters will play, but my depth charts give an edge to the Steelers backups. Look for the Eagles offense to experience growing pains and for the Steelers D to continue to show their toughness. 

Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog.Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on natural surface. 

Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Baltimore Ravens go  into Washington with momentum as they ride a 16-game winning streak in pre-season play and have won and covered each of their three exhibition tilts this season.Rookie QB Trace McSorley  has looked tremendous and completed 19 of his 28 passing attempts for 203 yards, two touchdowns, last time out in a Ravens, win and should get more snaps tonight with Lamar Jackson not expected to play. Meanwhile, Washington despite of a preseason win last time out, is suffering through some scattered key injuries and will want to stay relatively healthy, going forward so Im betting they play alot of backups and  sort out the bottom half of the depth chart . Looks very much like Baltimore makes it 17 straight here, and covers for the 11th time in 13 trips to the gridiron. 

BALTIMORE is 10-1 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points .

Play on Baltimore to cover 

The Minnesota Vikings opened at 2.5 point dogs  vs the Buffalo Bils, but that number was knocked down, and now the value despite of the divergence still lies with the Vikings of favorites of 3 points. 

Zimmer is 12-4 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MINNESOTA. Zimmer is 9-2 ATS  in road games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

NFLX   teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after a 2 game home stand against opponent after playing their last game on the road are 29-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NFLX Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off 2 consecutive home wins, undefeated in the preseason are 41-16 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Sunday night National Football League preseason action  features the AFC North  Pittsburgh  Steelers  doing battle with the AFC South Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. 

The Titans owned a top tier  defense last year  ranking 8th in total yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed( 18.9 ppg). This season and tonight Im betting the Titans D will continue to shine thanks to addition of some key draft acquisitions and depth. On offence with QB Mariotts expected to play at least half the game a Tennessee offence that has looked more fluid than usual thanks to a more balanced run and passing game  and  should continue to do good work vs a Pittsburgh D, that might not be as stable as many pundits believe. On the opposite end of the field, its looks like the Steelers Big ben will see limited time if plays today at all which gives me more credence in my backing of the Titans here at home this week. Note: PITTSBURGH is 1-11 ATS  L/12 off a upset win as an underdog . Their 17-7 win vs KC last week qualifies here under a regression chart that I use to isolate let down spots. 

Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on a natural surface. 

Titans are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to win on the ML

Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Veteran QB Philip Rivers will not play this week vs the  Chargers and  backing Seattle is a good investment option behind  a above average group of backup QBs  ie JT Barrett and especially Geno Smith with veteran QB Wilson probably playing the first quarter. Pete Carrol said all of starters will see some action on Saturday, but has not specified how much. The line from its opening has spun around in a big way , but there is still market value here on this line favoring the Seahawks. Advantage Seahawks. 

SEATTLE is 31-12 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1993.

SEATTLE is 33-18 ATS in road games since 1993.

 NFLX team (SEATTLE) - after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 11-31 L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

Jets running back Le’Veon Bell won’t see action until the regular season. With QB Saints Drew Brees likely to see his only action prior to Week 1 kickoff the Saints have an edge over his young counterpart Sam Darnold . Note:  Brees has averaged 22 snaps in Week 3 of the previous two pre-seasons.

The Saints have covered 3 of their L/4 road games in the preseason and 6 of their L/8 preseason games overall and get the nod again.

NEW ORLEANS is 21-6 ATS  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest .

NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-11 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in non-conference games, off a double digit road win are 11-33 ATS L/10 seasons L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 8-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLX Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game are 40-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints