Im not impressed by Spains defensive play, but we know they can be explosive and we need be attack in transition. Meanwhile, and considering Italy   plays one way under manager Roberto Mancini it obvious to me the best option here and most probable profitable outcome is to take an over stance. 

Play OVER 

 Coming into this tilt vs Ajax there have been two goals or less scored in Atalanta’s last five matches (six of its last seven overall) from all competitions including a shutout vs Liverpool at Anfield. I know the Ajax has had some defensive deficiencies lately , but at expected 6.6 expected goals against,  which breaks down to in a +1.3 xGDiff and +0.26 xGDiff/90 minutes. With that said,  Im betting the Son of God dial up a tougher tone on the pitch today, and help keep this game on the low side of the number vs a staunch defensive side. 

 Play UNDER

 High-scoring  Inter Milan look very formidable here from a production standpoint ,   Since  the restart  an average of 3.4 goals over 13 matches involving the Nerazzurri give credence to more goals here today.  Considering Inter Milan play three at the back Im betting Getafe gets alot of scoring chances and converts at least once in a tilt I see eclipsing the total.

Play on the OVER