This is a 5* play on the Under.

Both the Conference Championship Games fell well short of the listed total, and there are plenty of signs we should expect a low score in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense knocked out Brock Purdy early in the game, and held the 49ers to just seven points. Their offense was a run heavy attack, and we haven't seen much in the passing game since Jalen Hurts came back from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs defense sacked Joe Burrow five times, and picked him off twice. They held the Bengals to just 71 yards on the ground, and they rank 6th in the NFL in opponent rushing TDs. Patrick Mahomes was limited due to a high ankle sprain, and he might be less than 100 percent here even after two weeks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD.

This is a 4* play on Under.

There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick Mahomes is going to play, but the question is how effective is he going to be. He wasn't too bad playing hurt last week, throwing for 195 yards and two TDs on 22-of-30 passing. He may not be able to extend plays with his legs, and that might result in a more conservative game plan from Andy Reid. This is a revenge spot for the Chiefs, after getting eliminated by the Bengals in a 27-24 OT home loss last January. There are a lot of trends pointing towards the under. The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals last 39 road games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 games in January. These teams have gone under in five of the last six at Arrowhead.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under 45.5. 

The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. The last time these teams played, San Francisco won 17-11 it Philly is September of last season. The under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games, and the under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games. This should be a defensive battle. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Despite five turnovers against the Chargers last week, the Jags scored 31 points and erased a 27-0 deficit. Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and four TDs on 28-of-47 passing in the comeback. He has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in passing (298 yds per game) and #1 in scoring averaging over 29 points per game. Kansas City doesn't have much of a running game, so we should see both teams air it out here. The over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 road games, and the Chiefs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 in the month of January.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

I can't take a side here, there's no way I trust either of these quarterbacks. Tom Brady has looked his age lately, throwing six INTs in his last four meaningful games. We won't count a meaningless game against Atlanta in the season finale. Dak Prescott has thrown eight picks in his last five starts, and his last game was a complete disaster. He threw for just 128 yards on 14-of-37 passing with a TD and an INT in a 26-6 loss to Washington. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect both coaches to be quite conservative, especially in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a 38-10 win over the Chargers in LA in Week 3, but don't read too much into the fact that the Chargers were blown out in that game. Justin Herbert had broken ribs, and Keenan Allen didn't play. Despite all the injuries and dealing with adversity, Herbert still threw for almost 5,000 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Chargers boast the NFL's #3 ranked passing offense. Jacksonville won their final five games in the regular season, scoring an average of more than 29 points in those contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings, and the Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Jacksonville. I expect both teams to score their share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Both these teams should be geared up to play in the Rose Bowl. There aren't a lot of opt outs to worry about here, but both teams will be without their top corners. Cam Rising threw for 310 yards and three TDs on 22-of-34 passing in the PAC12 Championship game, beating USC 47-24. Penn State has scored at least 30 points in six straight games, and the over is 12-5 in the Nittany Lions last 17 non-conference games. They have also gone over in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The line has moved significantly due to the injury to Jalen Hurts. I am not convinced that the Eagles are much worse off with Minshew Mania at the helm. Gardner Minshew has completed over 63 percent of his passes for 41 TDs and a dozen INTs in his NFL career. Most of his playing time came with the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he steps in behind an elite offensive line, on the best team in the NFL. There is every reason to expect him to be successful, as least moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. These teams have gone over in four straight, and three straight in Dallas. The total came down several points after the news that Hurts wouldn't play, and I still expect the Eagles to score enough to get the total over the number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on over. 

The Vikings defense has given up 70 points in their last two games. Last week they trailed the Colts 33-0 at halftime, and came all the way back to win 39-36. They have now gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and it would be no surprise to see another high score here against the Giants. The Vikings have allowed an average of 28 points in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The Roadrunners and the Trojans each finished as Conference Champions, and they both come into their bowl game as winners of 10 straight games. Troy has done it with a Top 10 ranked defense, while UTSA has been an offensive juggernaut. UTSA has scored an average of 41 points per game over it's last 10, while Troy has scored over 100 points in their final two games of the regular season. Troy's defensive stats might be misleading, a product of the opposition they faced. When they played Western Kentyucky and Appalachian State, both of those games saw 60+ points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Lions are 5-7, and yet they are favorite here at home against a 10-2 Minnesota team. Both these teams are playing their best football of late, each winnimng four of their last five games. The Lions rank dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 402 yards per game. Right behind them are the Vikings allowing 398 yards per game. The Lions lost 28-24 at Minnesota earlier this season, and last December they won 29-27 at Ford Field. The over is 11-5 in the Vikings last 16 road games, and the Lions have gone over in six of their last eight home games. The over is 4-1 in the Vikings last five at Detroit.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

Heading into the season we thought the duo of Derek Carr and Davante Adams would put up huge numbers. They got off to a slow start, but over the last five games Adams is averaging over 132 receiving yards per game. He also has seven TDs during that span. The Raiders come into LA as winners of three in a row, and they face a Rams defense decimated by injuries. Geno Smith threw for 367 yards and three TDs in LA on Sunday. Despite a lost season for the Rams, they were still competitive against Seattle. These games may just be an opportunity for players like Cam Akers and Van Jefferson to pad their stats. The Raiders 26th ranked defense allows 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Under.

The last game played at Gillette Stadium saw the Patriots score just three points up until the final five seconds of regulation. They were quite fortunate that they held the Jets to just three points on just 103 yards of offense. They were even luckier to return a punt for a touchdown to walk the game off for the win. They host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and both these teams boast Top 5 scoring defenses each allowing just 18 points per game. The weatherman says it's going to be cold with rain and wind (if you can trust the forecast several days out). The Pats have held opponents to three points or less in three of their last four games. I think 21 points will be enough to win this game

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Utah Utes rank 1st in the Pac12 in total defense, and they are allowing 20 points per game this season. Oregon State comes in allowing 20.3 points per game. The Beavers at home though are borderline elite defensively. This was evident when they held USC to a season low 17 points, and Caleb Williams to just 180 yards on 16-of-36 passing in late September. Bo Nix was playing on one leg last week, but the Ducks got the win 20-17 over Utah behind a strong effort from the defense. The under is 11-4 in the Ducks last 15 road games, and the under is 5-1 in the Beavers last six home games versus a team with a winning road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over. 

The Tar Heels have a high powered offense and a Heisman contender at QB, but they rank dead last in the ACC against the pass. Freshman QB MJ Morris has proven he can move the ball against below average defenses, throwing for 475 yards and six TDs in wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack had a bit of a let down last week against Boston College, but expect them to be better in this rivalry game. The over is 20-8 in the Tar Heels last 28 versus a team with a winning record. Expect both teams to do their share of scoring in what should be a great game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Ole Miss ran for 463 yards, and gained a total of 703 yards in a loss (yeah that's right) to Arkansas last week. They also gave up over 500 yards to the Hogs, and 335 yards on the ground. They face a Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl that doesn't run much, but Will Rogers did throw for 336 yards in a losing effort versus the Rebels last year. The Rebels have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 4-1 in their last five coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So TCU scored just 17 points on 289 total yards in a win at Texas last week. Their defense was impressive, holding Texas to 10 points on 199 total yards. The question is, did Texas give Dave Aranda the blueprint for slowing down the Horned Frogs offense? I think Baylor has to try to replicate what Texas did, slowing down this game and limiting the possessions. Blake Shapen threw for 203 yards and two INTs on 22-38 passing last week, so don't expect him to be slinging it around the yard this week. I expect to see both teams favor the run in bad weather, resulting in time coming off the clock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Broncos have failed to reach the total in four straight overall, and five straight when coming off a loss.

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Red Hawks have gone under in five of their last six MAC games, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Golden Flashes have gone under in six of their last seven MAC games, and the under is 6-2 in their last eight versus Eastern Michigan.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This is the last stand for the Packers this season. If they are going to save the season it has to happen here against Dallas. They get a home game in bad weather, normally an ideal spot for this team. I expect them to bring a ton of intensity on defense and lean on their running game. It's not clear if Aaron Rodgers can do anything with this receiving corps. The Cowboys have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games in November. The under is 6-1 in the Packers last seven games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Did you know it snows in Nevada? Maybe not in Las Vegas but snow is actually pretty common in Reno. The forecast is calling for snow and -5 temps in a late game in Reno here on Saturday night. Boise State doesn't have much of a passing game with QB Taylen Green (6 TD, 4 INT). We've seen the total go under in six of Nevada's last eight home games in the month of November, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. Not surprising considering Nevada ranks 119th nationally in passing (176 yards per game).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Tulane.

It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Alabama is in uncharted territory, with two regular season losses and presumably eliminated from the college football playoff. A lot of people talk about Alabama being 5-0 ATS coming off a loss, but I am not sure those trends are relevant here in a "dream crusher" scenario. They have been terrible on the road all year, including a 52-49 loss at Tennessee. The Vols had 567 total yards in that game, and it's interesting that Ole Miss presents a similar challenge when it comes to pace of play. When these teams met last year the total was set at 80, and the bookmakers set the total over 70 in three of the last four meetings. The Rebels have gone over the number in four straight games, and I expect both teams to score their fair share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is 4* play on under.

Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Maryland couldn't get anything going offensively in a bad weather game at Wisconsin last week. Taulia Tagovailoa threw for just 77 yards with a TD and an INT on 10-of-23 passing in a 23-10 loss. It's expected to be another cold and windy winter day at Beaver Stadium Saturday. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the under is 4-0 in the last four at University Park.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The South Florida Bulls fired their head coach after a drubbing at Temple last week. They gave up 54 points to the 119th ranked offense in the country (after scoring 54). On the bright side, Katravis Marsh threw for 176 yards and three TDs. He's thrown for 649 yards, 6 TDs and just one INT since taking over at QB. SMU comes in ranked Top 5 in the nation in passing, and Top 10 in scoring. The over is 12-1 in the Bulls last 13 home games, and they have gone over in 11 of their last 13 coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Indiana ranks dead last in the BIG10 in rushing, so if the weather prevents them from having success in the passing game they are going to be in big trouble. They lost 24-0 at Penn State last year, and another low score seems likely here. The under is 8-2 in the Nittany Lions last 10 games in November, and the Hoosiers have failed to reach the total in four of their last five in the BIG10.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

Everybody knows that midweek games in the MAC can often be high scoring, and because of that the total for this game is almost at 60. In fact it's six points higher than the last time Buffalo Played in Athens. Only once in the last six head to head meetings has the listed total been higher than 55 points. Even given the much lower totals, only one of the last five head to head meetings reached the number. Buffalo ranks second in the MAC in scoring defense allowing 24 points per game. The under is 4-1 in the Bobcats last five conference games, and the under is 7-2 in the Bulls last nine games following a straight up win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Northwestern comes into Iowa on a six game losing streak, scoring an average of just 16.5 points per game in those losses. This Iowa defense is better than any they have faced this season, and you really have to wonder how the Wildcats could possibly score a TD here. It's likely more likely that their defense record a pick-six than it is for their offense to punch one in. Iowa's offense is historically bad, so it could be a busy day for kickers. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and they combined for an average of less than 30 points in those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Patriots welcome back Mac Jones on Monday night at home against the Bears, despite the fact that their offense looked a lot better with Bailey Zappe under center. Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 66 percent passing this season. This isn't exactly a favorable matchup as the Bears rank among the best in the NFL against the pass allowing just over 170 yards per game. The good news for New England is that Chicago can't stop the run, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. This should prompt Belicheck to pound the rock, burning the clock and slowing the game down. History favors the under, as the Patriots have gone under in six of their last seven MNF games, while the Bears have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight on Monday night. The under is 11-2 in the Bears last 13 games in October.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Middle Tennessee is coming of a stunning upset as a 25 point underdog at Miami, winning that game outright by a score of 45-31. This might set them up for a let down on Friday night against UTSA. The Roadrunners are 2-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Both these teams can score in a hurry, and neither team has inspired much confidence on defense. To put it into perspective, the Roadrunners gave up over 300 passing yards to Army (yes Army). The Blue Raiders allowed 44 points and six passing TDs in a loss to a an FCS team in Week 1. The over is 10-1 in the Roadrunners last 11 games overall, and they have gone over in seven straight road games. I see both these teams scoring 30+ here in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is play on Under.

Posted this Sunday night before the news broke that Dak would be out for several weeks. The line has since been bet down by more than a TD which sort of kills off any value for clients.

This is a 2* play Under.

The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* GOY play on Under.

The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl favorites at times, but they haven't been at their best lately. Don't be fooled by their big win over the Eagles, in a game that Philly rested all their starters. Perhaps a more accurate indicator would be their home loss to Arizona a week earlier. They host a San Francisco team that poses a similar challenge. The Niners are going to try to punch the Cowboys in the mouth. What that means is, they will look to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the ball out of the hands of Dak Prescott. The Niners have failed to reach the total in five of their last six playoff games. The under is 8-3 in the Cowboys last 11 games overall, and Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games. The total for this contest is higher than it had been in each of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Western Michigan will be a significant favorite here in the Quick Lanes Bowl, and we should see plenty of scoring. The Broncos averaged over 30 points per game this season, and they gave up almost as many. Nevada won't have QB Carson Strong, who opted out as he prepares for the draft. The Wolfpack will also have a running backs coach leading them in this game. The over is 5-2 in the Broncos last seven games overall, and the over is 8-3 in the Wolf Pack's last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8*

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Titans offense has struggled since losing Derrick Henry, averaging fewer than 15 points in their last four games overall. Their defense has continued to play well, allowing fewer than 20 points in those games. They rank 2nd in the NFL versus the run, allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game. The Titans have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight home games, and with all the injuries points could be hard to come by here against the 49ers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The UTSA Road Runners bring a high powered offense into this Bowl Game. They scored 49 points in a win over the Hilltoppers in the C-USA Championship game. They averaged 38 points per game this season, and the over is 5-1 in the Roadrunners last six games overall. San Diego State was a defensive powerhouse in the Mountain West, but they might not be motivated to grind it out on defense in a Bowl Game. The Aztecs have allowed an average of 27 points in their last three bowl games, and two of those went over the total. I expect to see plenty of scoring here in the Frisco Bowl.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Seahawks and the Rams are relatively lucky to come into this game with most of their players healthy. A couple extra days have allowed the Rams to get several players back from the Covid list. Both these QBs come in hot, with Russell Wilson throwing for six TDs and just one INT in his last three starts, and Mathew Stafford throwing for nine TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. Seattle still ranks dead last in total defense allowing almost 400 yards per game. When these teams played earlier this season the total was set at 53.5, and now in LA we see a much lower number. Expect Russell Wilson to score enough to keep this game interesting and push the total over.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Cold winter nights at Lambeau Field are not an ideal setting for quarterbacks to pad the stats in the passing game. Justin Fields rarely tosses the ball around the yard at the best of times. He's only bettered this number twice this season, and in a home loss to the Packers he threw for 174 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Fields is coming back from a rib injury, and while he's healthy enough to start this game, there's no guarantee he will finish it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

All of a sudden the Denver Broncos have won three of their last four and they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense. The Chiefs have won four straight, and their defense has allowed just 12 points per gane during that span. They have been a lot more focused on their running game, and they ran for 126 yards and two TDs in a win over the Cowboys two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes didn't throw a TD pass in that game, and he's only had one multi TD game in his last five starts. The under is 23-11 in the Broncos last 34 games in December, and the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over

Utah State will play San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship game, and I think the Aggies are biting off more than they can chew. This Utah State team is fresh off a 44-17 home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago, and the Cowboys ran for 362 yards in that game. The last time they faced San Diego State, the Aztecs ran for over 400 yards and won by 31. The Aztecs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have covered in four of their last five versus Utah State. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone over the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is an 8* play on Over.

Louisville scored 35 points in the first half last week against Duke, and they scored 35 points in the first half in their last home game against Syracuse. Now Kentucky is a step up in competition, but the Cardinals are still going to score their points. Five of the last six head to head meetings have gone over the total. The over is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 games in November, and the over is 23-7 in the Wildcats last 30 non-conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Ducks playoff hopes are over, and they might be vulnerable here in this big rivalry game. Weather could be a factor, with rain in the forecast. We expect both teams to lean heavily on their running game, which should chew up the clock and keep the score from getting too high. The under is 4-0 in the Ducks last four games following a straight up loss. The Beavers defense held Arizona State to just 3.3 yards per carry (100 total rush yards) last week. They have plenty of reason to get up for this game, so don't be surprised if they give the Ducks a run for their money.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Cyclones are coming off back to back losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma, and they finish the season at home against TCU. The Horned Frogs have plenty to play for, with a chance to become bowl eligible. The Cyclones have gone under in eight of their last nine home games, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games in November. It's going to be a freezing cold day at Jack Trice Stadium, and I think a total over 60 seems a little inflated.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

You look at this game between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, with two head coaches that are known for their offense, you might think this will be a high scoring game. History says otherwise, as these teams have gone under in eight of the last 10, and seven of the last eight head to head meetings. Both teams have shown that they can play defense in recent weeks. The Rebels have held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points, and they have gone under 60 combined points in six straight overall. The under is 12-5 in the Bulldogs last 17 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The mid week MAC games have been going over the total at an incredible rate, and perhaps that's why the bookmakers have listed the total so high for tonight's game between Buffalo and Ball State. The Bulls will have their backup QB under center, and the Cardinals offense ranks dead last in the MAC West. Ball State has failed to reach the total in seven straight home games, and the under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last five games following an ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bucs will be a double digit favorite at home on Monday Night Football versus the Giants, but they have lost back to back games to Washington and New Orleans. While both those losses came on the road, the fact is that a pair of mediocre teams scored a total of 65 points in those games. Injuries in the secondary are hurting the Bucs, and without Vita Vea their run defense is suffering as well. Both these teams have offensive starters coming back from injury, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. The over is 6-0 in the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

Baylor is coming off a huge upset win over Oklahoma, and their defense held the Sooners to just 14 points. They could suffer a let down here at Kansas State, as the Wildcats have won four straight and allowed just 16 points per game during that span. The under is 8-3 in the Bears last 11 road games, and the Wildcats have gone under in five of their last six as a favorite. The under is 11-3-1 in the Wildcats last 15 games in November.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

This total has been bet up several points over the last 24 hrs. We have seen an ongoing trend of high scoring games in the midweek MAC games, but Toledo is coming off a solid defensive performance against Bowling Green, They held the Falcons to 196 total yards, and just 67 yards passing. They ran the ball 42 times, and attempted just 25 passes. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going over in just one of the last six head to head meetings. The under is 11-1 in the Bobcats last 12 games as a home underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Rams are most people's favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they doubled down with the moves to add Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. They lost last week to the Titans, and that sets them up for a "get right" game here in San Francisco. The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. LA has the better QB, and the better coach. The Niners drafted Trey Lance because they didn't trust Jimmy G. Kyle Shanahan might not be the answer either, and he should be on the hot seat. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Jets are a double digit dog at home versus Buffalo, but they might not be as bad as you think. There are 2-1 at home this season, and there is no denying that when Mike White steps in at QB they make things interesting. White has played in three games, completing 73 percent of his passes for 702 yards and five TDs. The Jets have gone over in five straight, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. This might be a get right game for the Bills, but I expect Mike White to put some points on the board for the Jets.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

Toledo will come into Bowling Green as a double digit road favorite, and both of these two teams are coming in scoring a ton of points. Bowling Green is coming off a 56-44 win over Buffalo, totaling 484 yards of offense. They allowed Buffalo to tally up 499 yards of offense in that game. Toledo is coming off a 52-49 home loss to Eastern Michigan, in a game where they racked up a whopping 672 yards. The Falcons have gone over in five of their last seven as a home underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Bulls have had a disappointing season so far, and a 56-44 home loss to Bowling Green didn't help matters. They have had two weeks to put that behind them, and they are hoping for a much better effort here on the road at Miami-Ohio. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, the over is 12-4 in the last 16 head to head meetings. The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Oxford. Both these teams should pile on the points here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Vikings know they need to be more agressive moving forward. Assistant coach Andre Patterson told reporters this week: "Instead of trying not to lose games, we need to go out and try to win". Being too conservative might explain why the Vikings offense ranks near the top of the league in total yards, but not in points scored. It's only a matter of time before those numbers even out. The over is 10-2 in the Vikings last 12 games following a straight up loss, and they have gone over in five straight road games. These two teams have gone over in five straight head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

Wake Forest is an offensive juggernaut, coming in averaging over 50 points per game in their last three games, and over 43 points per game this season. They are an underdog on the road at North Carolina, and the Tar Heels are another team that can score more than their share. These two teams have gone over the total in five straight at North Carolina, and the Tar Heels have gone over in five of their last seven overall. This game has shootout written all over it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is an 8* play on Over.

Last week the Jets totaled 511 yards and upset the Bengals winning 34-31. Nobody saw it coming, but perhaps we should have been more optimistic about Mike "Effin" White. After all he did step in the previous week and immediately New York's offense started moving the ball. The Colts have been far from perfect, and they have gone over in four of their last five overall. These teams have gone over in seven of the laat 10 head to head meetings, and with Mike "Effin" White under center the Jets offense could make some noise here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Cowboys will make a decision on Dak Prescott before kickofff, but whether or not he plays it seems clear that he's not going to be 100 percent. The game plan here should be focused on a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Only Cleveland has averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have lost five of their last six at Minnesota, and the Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a winning road record. At 3-3 the Vikings appear to be flying under the radar, and this looks like a good spot for the home team. The under is 4-1 in the Vikes last five home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Titans win over the Bills on Monday Night Football was quite impressive, but their defense was shredded by Josh Allen. It won't get any easier this week against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The last two meetings between these teams have gone over the total, even a high number such as 58 (the current number at some books). Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense, and second in the NFL passing yards. This game has "shootout" written all over it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Hawaii defeated New Mexico State 41-21 earlier this season, but we expect an even higher score this time around. Why? Well since that loss the Aggies haven't improved defensively, allowing a combined 92 points in losses to San Jose State and Nevada. On a positive note, the passing game has been improving. Jonah Johnson has thrown for 725 yards, six TDs and one INT in his last two starts. The over is 36-16-1 in the Aggies last 53 road games, and the over is 5-2 in the Rainbow Warriors last seven games as a home favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Seahawks are bound to be a bit conservative on offense with their backup QB under center and their leading rusher on the IR. While Seattle ranks dead last in total defense, that is a little misleading. It hasn't necessarily translated into points the way you would expect. The Seahawks are allowing 25 points per game in a league where four teams are allowing 30+ points per game. The Steelers are also not the ideal team to take advantage of Seattle's defensive shortcomings. The under is 7-1 in the Seahawks last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have failed to reach the number in six of their last seven on the road.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over

FYI, it's almost unheard of to go undefeated in the NFL, now and in years past. The Arizona Cardinals are the last of the unbeaten teams this season, and this week looks like a situational nightmare for Arizona. Their offense played terrible last week in a close game that they got lucky to win at home versus San Francisco. Kyler Murray took a big hit and ended up on the bench getting his arm worked on. He's coming into Cleveland without his head coach who has tested positive for Covid19. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams with a winning record, and the Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. Only Kansas City and Seattle have been worse against the run than Arizona this season, and that may not bode well against the league's #2 rushing offense. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bucs come into Philly as big favorites, and they sit near the top of everyone's power rankings. That comes no thanks to their defense though, allowing almost 25 points per game. When you rank first in the NFL in passing, and you average over 33 points per game, you don't have to have a great defense. The Eagles last home game was a 42-30 loss to Kansas City, and Jalen Hurts threw for 387 yards and two TDs in the loss. He could have another big game here against a struggling Bucs secondary, and he's going to need to if the Eagles want to stay in the game. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Over.

The Memphis Tigers are still on offensive juggernaut, but they come into tonight's home game against Navy riding a three game losing streak. They put up 614 total yards in a 35-29 loss at Tulsa on Saturday, and if they didn't turn it over three times they could have gained even more. Their defense has allowed 30+ points in three straight games, and Tulsa ran for 235 yards and three TDs on Saturday. The over is 12-5 in the Midshipmen's last 17 games as an underdog. The Tigers have gone over in seven of their last nine versus teams with a losing record. The last three times Navy has played at Tulsa the total went over 55 combined points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8*

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Chargers defense ranks among the best in the NFL against the pass, but they have struggled a bit to defend the run. That could be a recipe for disaster against a Browns team that can pound the rock like no other. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing averaging over 177 yards per game. The Browns have gone over the total in five of their last six versus teams with a winning record. They will have their hands full with Justin Herbert. Both these teams are going to put points on the board, and the total  looks a little low.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Packers offense comes into this game cooking, and this game in Cincinnati is expected to be a high scoring affair. Aaron Jones comes in with five total TDs in his last three games, despite being kept out of the endzone against the Steelers. I am expecting both teams to score their share of points here in Cincinnati. The over is 6-0 in the Packers last six versus a team with a winning record, and the Bengals have gone over in six of their last severn versus a teams with a winning road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The LSU Tigers are coming off a 24-19 home loss to Auburn, and it doesn't get any easier on the road at the 5-0 Kentucky Wildcats. The under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 games as a road underdog. Kentucky looks like they are for real, coming off a 20-13 home win over the Florida Gators. The under is 21-8 in the Wildcats last 29 conference games, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under. 

Michigan could be due for a let down here on the road at Nebraska, after their 38-17 win at Wisconsin. Nebraska has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the BIG10. Even in their losses to Oklahoma and Michigan State they didn't give up a lot of points. The under is 7-2-1 in the Cornhuskers last 10 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in seven straight as an underdog. Neither of these teams are great at the QB position, and both teams are playing lights out on defense. This game should be a defensive battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Irish are coming off a 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati, and now they have a tough road game at Virginia Tech. The Hokies already have an upset win over a ranked team, beating the Tar Heels 17-10 in their season opener. The Irish are a far tougher opponent than the Tar Heels though, especially on defense. Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven coming off a win. The under is 7-3 in the Fighting Irish last 10 games as an underdog. The Hokies have gone under in six straight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Cougars come into this game against rivals Boise State with injury concerns at QB, but that might not be as big of an issue given their potent rushing attack. Tyler Allgeier is a real weapon, and he ran for 218 yards and three TDs on 22 carries in a win over Utah State last week. He had a big game (124 yds, 2 TDs) against Boise State last year. The under is 7-1 in the Cougars last eight games overall, and they have gone under in five of their last six as a favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Georgia Bulldogs have won four straight games by at least four scores. They could be challenged here on the road at Auburn, and this game could look a lot more like their season opener versus Clemson. The Tigers lost 27-6 at Georgia last year, and seven of the last eight meetings have gone under the number. Auburn has scored more than 10 points just twice in their last seven against Georgia. Bo Nix threw for 177 yards and an INT on 21-of-40 passing in the loss to Georgia last year. He's likely to have similar numbers here at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a massive upset win over Oregon, thanks to their new stud QB Tanner McKee. The sophomore has thrown for over 1000 yards, 11 TDs without a single INT in four starts. He will have his work cut out for him on the road at Arizona State, taking on a 4-1 Sun Devils team. Arizona State is 2-0 in the PAC12, scoring a total of 77 points in wins over UCLA and Colorado. The over is 25-8-1 in the Cardinal last 34 games as a road underdog, and the Sun Devils have gone over in four straight conference games. This should be a slugfest with both teams scoring their share.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bucs defense has struggled so far while winning 2-of-3 games. They have allowed an average of 29 points, and opposing QBs are averaging 338 passing yards per game. This could allow Bill Belichick to scheme up a game plan for Mac Jones that will lead to points for the Patriots. Richard Sherman is expected to play at CB today, despite not playing a game in almost a year. This gives us an idea of just how shorthanded the Bucs are in their secondary. The over is 5-0 in the Bucs last five as a favorite, and they have gone over in five straight when coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Auburn Tigers will need better QB play if they hope to upset LSU on Saturday. Bo Nix struggled last week against Georgia State, throwing for 156 yards on 13-of-27 passing. TJ Finley came in and played much better, and now we have a QB controversy on our hands. The under is 7-1 in (Auburn) Tigers last eight road games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven SEC games. The home team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings, and four of the last five meetings have gone under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

Last year's game between the Rebels and the Tide was barn burner, and because of that the total for today's game is rather inflated. It opened in the mid seventies and has since been bet up over 80. It doesn't take much to stall the pace of play to prevent these teams from combining for 80+ points. A turnover here, a holding penalty or two, or maybe just some plain old good defense. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings, but the total here in this game is far higher than it was in any of those previous games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Over.

The Irish are liking their own smell after a blowout win at Wisconsin, but let's pump the brakes on how great this team is. They gave up 29 points in a home win over Toledo, and Florida State nearly scored 40 on them. The Bearcats come in as winners of 12 of their last 13 overall, and they can score points on anyone. The over is 6-1 in the Bearcats last seven games as a road favorite, and the over is 9-4 in the Fighting Irish last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The BYU Cougars will be a big favorite on the road at Utah State, and the total for this game has been bet up to the mid 60s. That's 10 points higher than we have seen in any of the past 10 head to head meetings. These teams did go over the total in five of the last six meetings, but only one of those games saw more than 65 points scored. The Cougars have gone under in six of their last seven overall, while the Aggies have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven as an underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bengals are coming off an impressive win in Pittsburgh, and Joe Burrow threw three TD passes against one of the league's top defenses. Most significantly he didn't get sacked once, as the Steelers 75 game streak with at least one sack was broken. A home game against the Jags looks like a good spot for Burrow to fill the stat sheet. The Jags defense has allowed over 30 points per game so far, and opposing QBs are averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Burrow threw for 300 yards a TD and an INT in a 33-25 home win over the Jags as a rookie last year. With an improved offensive line, expect another big day for Burrow.

GL,

Jesse Schule