Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday.

We'll fade the Warriors here after they leaned heavily on a vintage Steph Curry performance to grab a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night. While Golden State ultimately got the job done, it's worth noting that the Rockets have been competitive in this matchup, splitting the last six meetings straight-up, including an outright victory at this very venue on April 6th.

Consistency has been an issue for Golden State down the stretch. Since March 6th, the Warriors have managed to string together consecutive ATS victories only once — during a brief four-game run from March 30th to April 4th. Since that point, they’ve gone just 4-5 ATS. That suggests some natural regression could be in play here, especially with public sentiment likely backing Golden State following Saturday's win.

Meanwhile, Houston has proven it can travel well, posting a solid 23-19 SU and 22-20 ATS mark away from home this season. The Rockets should be fully motivated to bounce back in this critical Game 4 spot, and we know they have already demonstrated the ability to steal a game in San Francisco.

With the Warriors unlikely to shoot the lights out for a second straight game and the Rockets capable of matching up physically and athletically, we’ll grab all the points we can get with the road underdog on Monday night.

Take Houston.Projected score: Warriors 104, Rockets 103.

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Orlando at 7 pm et on Sunday.

While Game 3 saw both teams bogged down in a sluggish, low-scoring affair — combining for just 188 points — I’m expecting a bounce-back in scoring when the Celtics and Magic meet again for Game 4 on Sunday night.

Friday’s 95-93 Orlando win saw Boston limited to a season-low 74 field goal attempts, but it's important to note that Boston has historically responded well offensively after extended shooting slumps. The Celtics have now been held to 37 or fewer made field goals in four straight games, matching their longest drought of the season. The last time that happened, they exploded for 139 points against Brooklyn in mid-November. While I’m not projecting quite that type of eruption here against Orlando’s stout defense, it sets up nicely for Boston to find its rhythm and lift the scoring environment.

Orlando still faces heavy pressure trailing 2-1 in the series. In a similar spot in Game 2, we saw the Magic perform better offensively while chasing from behind, knocking down a series-high 39 field goals. If the Celtics take control again on Sunday, that could force Orlando to play a little faster and take more chances offensively, helping the 'over' cause.

It won’t take an out-of-control shootout to surpass this relatively modest number. With Boston likely to come out with more purpose offensively and Orlando capable of contributing enough, we should see a higher-scoring contest than we did on Friday.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Celtics 107, Magic 102.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The total has dipped following back-to-back low-scoring games to open the series, creating value as we shift venues to Memphis for Game 3. Oklahoma City is playing with extreme offensive confidence right now, having made 45 or more field goals in five of its last six games. The Thunder's offensive pace remains relentless, taking 98 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests, including a staggering 104 attempts in their Game 2 win. Even with a strong defense, the Thunder allow their opponents plenty of opportunities—four straight opponents have reached 91 or more field goal attempts. That trend should continue here, especially with the Grizzlies returning home and likely to push tempo in a must-win spot.

While Memphis hasn’t cashed in offensively yet this series, they've generated volume—getting off 93 and 91 field goal attempts in the first two games. They simply haven’t converted at the level they were prior to the series when they made 40+ field goals in six straight games. That kind of regression is unlikely to last, especially back home where role players typically perform better. Overall, the Grizzlies have hoisted 90 or more field goal attempts in 27 of their last 32 games, a sign they’re doing enough offensively to contribute to a higher-scoring game when their shots begin to fall. With both teams continuing to play at a high tempo, expect this one to cruise over the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Thunder 123, Grizzlies 113.

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Rockets came up short in Game 1, I expect a much more focused and efficient effort on Wednesday in a virtual must-win situation at home. Houston shot just 39.1% from the field in Sunday’s loss, connecting on only 34-of-87 attempts despite generating a reasonable number of looks. That kind of inefficiency is out of character for a Rockets team that had hit 45 or more field goals in five of their final six regular season games—even while resting key players. That stretch included a 45-for-93 shooting effort in a convincing 106-96 road win over this same Warriors squad on April 6th.

While Golden State did well to flip the script in Game 1, its offensive struggles continue to linger beneath the surface. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games and 11 of their last 16 overall. Their defensive effort has kept them competitive, but we’ve seen lapses, like the April 13th loss to the Clippers when they allowed 48 made baskets, and of course, that earlier defeat against the Rockets when Houston's offense found its rhythm.

Golden State hasn’t been reliable from a betting perspective either, managing just a 9-12-1 ATS mark over their last 22 contests and stringing together an ATS winning streak (four games) only once since early March.

With their season potentially hanging in the balance should they fall into an 0-2 series hole, I like the Rockets to bring their best effort and snap a four-game slide both straight-up and against the number in this key spot at home.

Take Houston. Projected score: Rockets 109, Warriors 101.

Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

We successfully backed the Heat in their emotionally charged win in Chicago on Wednesday, but now is the time to fade them. That game closed the book on a triple-revenge spot against the Bulls, and Miami delivered a defensive clinic to earn a trip to this winner-take-all play-in matchup. But with short rest and another road game on tap, this looks like a tough spot against an Atlanta squad that’s shown resilience in the face of adversity.

The Hawks have been effective playing at a slower pace recently, getting off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games — yet still managing to go 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread in that span. It’s not just the offense that has adjusted well; defensively, Atlanta has been solid, holding five straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals.

This sets up a battle of styles with the Heat, who have hit 44 or more field goals in four of their last five games. But keep in mind that Miami's strong recent showings have come against teams like the Bulls and Raptors — not exactly top-tier competition at this stage.

Revenge is also in play here. The Heat took the last two meetings against Atlanta, but both were in Miami. Back at State Farm Arena, it’s been a different story. The Hawks won both head-to-head matchups at home this season by double digits, and that’s the version of Atlanta I expect to show up in this one.

With a rested roster and some home-court history behind them, I like the Hawks to punch their ticket to the postseason.

Take Atlanta. Projected score: Hawks 111, Heat 104.

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 3:40 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with the Kings as they wrap up their regular season at home against a Suns squad that's coming off a rare high point. Phoenix finally snapped its eight-game SU losing streak (and nine-game ATS skid) with a 117-98 win over the Spurs on Friday. That was a much-needed result, but it came against a bottom-tier opponent in a low-stakes spot.

This matchup is a different story. Sacramento returns home needing a bounce-back effort after dropping the first two games of this final three-game homestand. That includes a tight one-point loss to the Clippers on Friday.

The Kings will also be looking to avenge a 122-106 loss in Phoenix from just a few weeks ago (March 14th), which should give them added motivation. Unlike the Suns, Sacramento has played more consistently down the stretch and has a stronger overall foundation to rely on.

This is a good spot to sell high on a Phoenix team likely due for a letdown and back a focused Kings squad.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Kings 126, Suns 105.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Thursday.

This sets up as a sneaky good spot to back the Pelicans as underdogs. While New Orleans has lost four in a row straight-up and appears to be playing out the string, it's still been competitive, posting a 5-2-1 ATS mark over its last eight games. Tuesday’s loss and non-cover in Brooklyn wasn’t their sharpest showing, but I like the Pelicans’ chances to bounce back here, especially as they embrace a slower pace that could frustrate Milwaukee.

New Orleans has held three of its last four opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts and six of its last seven to 41 or fewer made field goals. That kind of pace control is key when trying to hang around against a superior opponent, particularly one coming off a potentially draining win. The Bucks just pulled off a high-energy home victory over the Timberwolves and could be ripe for a letdown, especially with a home-and-home against Detroit looming to end the regular season.

While Milwaukee has won five straight, its defense has shown cracks, allowing seven of its last eight opponents to hit 43 or more field goals. That’s not exactly the shutdown profile you want to see from a favorite asked to cover a healthy spread. Offensively, the Bucks have taken 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven, limiting their margin for error in games where they’re laying significant points.

This is also a quick revenge spot for the Pelicans, who dropped a 111-107 decision at home on Sunday to a shorthanded Milwaukee squad. New Orleans certainly didn’t feel great about that result and should come out with purpose. All signs point to this being a grind-it-out, slower-paced contest that gives the underdog every opportunity to stay within the number.

Take New Orleans. Projected score: Bucks 114, Pelicans 108.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the under between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While both teams come in on two-game ‘over’ streaks, this matchup sets up well for a return to a lower-scoring affair. Atlanta has quietly shifted into a more controlled pace recently, holding six of its last seven opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts, with five of those held to 84 or fewer. That’s a key trend for a Hawks squad that has seen its defensive numbers skewed by red-hot shooting performances from its last four opponents, all of whom shot 50% or better from the field. Brooklyn, however, has been struggling to finish plays and shouldn't be expected to maintain the same efficiency as Atlanta’s recent opponents.

The Nets have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in 11 consecutive games, and while they did shoot well last time out, that came against a Pelicans team that hasn’t exactly been stout defensively. Brooklyn has also leaned into a slower tempo, holding five of its last six opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of its last 24 to fewer than 90.

These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 236 points, but that was a back-to-back spot for both, and each team got up 90 field goal attempts. That’s unlikely to be repeated here with both squads coming in rested and trending toward slower, more deliberate play.

This isn’t a spot where either team will need to push the pace for a full four quarters. Atlanta is a double-digit favorite, and a second-half slowdown is certainly in play if the game gets out of hand. With both teams quietly improving on the defensive end and limiting possessions, the setup points to a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Hawks 117, Nets 106.

Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This sets up as a strong situational spot for the Magic, who are catching the Celtics at the tail-end of a three-games-in-four-nights stretch in three different cities. Boston needed late-game heroics to force overtime in Tuesday’s win at Madison Square Garden, and with a return home looming along with two games against the Hornets to close out the season, this feels like a natural letdown spot.

Orlando, on the other hand, is in the thick of the playoff hunt and has looked the part, winning seven of its last nine games and covering six times during that stretch. Even with last night's win over Atlanta, this is a relatively fresh Magic squad that hadn't played since last Thursday before that contest. They should still have plenty in the tank here.

Defensively, Orlando has been outstanding, holding 11 straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That figures to be a key edge against a Celtics team that hasn't exactly been ramping up tempo—attempting 87 or fewer shots in three of its last four games.

With superior defensive intensity, more rest, and a focused mindset as they fight for playoff seeding, the Magic are well-positioned to get the job done at home against a fatigued Boston team.

Take Orlando. Projected score: Magic 112, Celtics 102.

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

This sets up as a revenge-fueled spot for the Thunder after they were embarrassed at home by the Lakers on Sunday, falling 126-99 in a game that saw OKC completely out of rhythm offensively. That defeat marked the second straight loss for the Thunder, who were also upset by Houston prior to that. But with Tuesday serving as Oklahoma City's final home game of the regular season, expect a focused, playoff-style effort.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have strung together consecutive dominant wins—both outright and ATS—but are in a clear lookahead/back-to-back situation with a road game in Dallas looming on Wednesday night. That's a far more winnable contest, and L.A. will likely be cautious with minutes and rotations as a result.

Look for the Thunder to play with urgency and intensity as they try to get right heading into a challenging final three-game road trip before the playoffs.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 127, Lakers 106

NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Auburn plus the points over Florida at 6:05 pm ET on Saturday.

Florida may carry a slightly better overall record into this SEC showdown, but it's Auburn that has been battle-tested against the toughest schedule in the nation by several advanced metrics. That seasoning is showing up at the right time, with the Tigers rolling into this one on a four-game SU winning streak, covering the spread in three straight.

This also sets up as a strong revenge spot for Auburn, who was stunned at home by Florida in a 90-81 loss back on February 8th despite closing as an 11-point favorite. Auburn's been a different team during this postseason stretch, turning up the intensity and consistency on both ends of the floor.

Given their current form, tougher overall résumé, and the added motivation of revenge, I expect the Tigers to push this one to the wire, if not win outright.

Take Auburn. Projected score: Auburn 76, Florida 74.

Non-Conference Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Sacramento is in a strong bounce-back position after suffering a shocking upset loss to Washington as a double-digit favorite two nights ago. That marked the Kings' third straight defeat, but they now get a prime opportunity to respond against a Hornets team that has been fortunate to cover the spread in back-to-back games.

Charlotte's recent success has been built on unsustainable shooting performances. The Hornets attempted just 80 and 78 field goals in their last two contests while allowing 96 and 95, respectively, yet still managed to shoot over 52% from the field in both games. That level of efficiency is unlikely to continue, especially against a Kings team that dominated the first meeting this season, rolling to a 42-point victory on February 24th.

Expect Sacramento to take control early and cruise to a comfortable win.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Kings 122, Hornets 103.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Both of these teams enter this matchup riding three-game 'over' streaks, but I expect that trend to reverse. The Timberwolves are coming off a hard-fought double-overtime win in Denver on Tuesday. Despite that extended contest, they still managed to hold the Nuggets to just 86 field goal attempts, highlighting their ability to dictate tempo with strong defense. Minnesota has limited two other opponents to just 79 and 68 field goal attempts since March 21st, showing a commitment to slowing the pace.

Brooklyn has been content to play at a methodical speed as well, with seven of its last eight opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the offensive end, the Nets have struggled to generate consistent production, connecting on 40 or fewer field goals in eight consecutive games. With both teams emphasizing defense and controlling possessions, I expect points to come at a premium.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Timberwolves 108, Nets 101.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

This is a rematch of a March 15th matchup in Detroit, where the Thunder won 113-107 while covering the spread. Oklahoma City has been a strong ATS team all season and enters this game on a four-game ATS winning streak. However, I expect the Pistons to put up a strong fight on Wednesday.

Detroit is coming off a 123-104 loss in Minnesota on Sunday, snapping its three-game SU and two-game ATS winning streaks. The Pistons struggled with their shooting in that game, hitting just 34 of 95 field goal attempts. That marked a stark contrast to their prior six games, where they had made 44 or more field goals each time. A bounce-back offensive performance is likely here.

Meanwhile, OKC is coming off a scorching 52-of-98 shooting night in a 145-117 rout of the Bulls on Monday, marking its third straight 20+ point win. That kind of offensive explosion is difficult to sustain, and I expect a much tighter game this time around.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Thunder 116, Pistons 111.

Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Nuggets will be eager for revenge after suffering a 115-95 home loss to the Timberwolves on March 12th. While Denver has had some trouble covering spreads recently, this is a great situational spot for the defending champions.

Denver is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in nearly a month and looked dominant in a 129-93 rout of Utah last Friday. With three full days of rest and playing at home for the fourth straight game, the Nuggets should be primed for a strong performance.

Minnesota enters this matchup off consecutive wins and covers at home against Phoenix and Detroit. However, this is a tricky scheduling spot for the Timberwolves as they embark on a five-game road trip that will take them across the country. After playing seven of their last eight games at home, the shift to the road could present some early challenges.

Look for Denver to take advantage of this spot and pick up a comfortable win.

Take Denver. Projected score: Nuggets 118, Timberwolves 107.

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

The 76ers have been in freefall, losing eight straight games SU and seven in a row ATS. However, I believe that has led to an inflated line as they take on the Knicks in Manhattan.

New York could be caught looking ahead to a tougher test in Cleveland on Wednesday, making this a potential letdown spot after back-to-back impressive wins over Milwaukee and Portland. While the Knicks sit comfortably ahead of Philadelphia in the standings, their three previous meetings this season have been relatively competitive, with none decided by more than 12 points.

The most recent matchup between these two teams came on February 26th in New York, where the Knicks won by five points but failed to cover a double-digit spread. I expect a similar result here, with Philadelphia doing just enough to keep things close.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Knicks 112, 76ers 107.

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Miami at 7 pm ET on Monday.

We'll grab all the points we can with the Wizards as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses, including an 'upset' defeat against the Nets on Saturday. While Washington is firmly in the race for the top draft pick, I still expect it to play hard down the stretch. Here, we're getting an ample number of points in a double-revenge spot after dropping both previous meetings with Miami this season—neither of which took place in Washington.

The Heat have been rolling, winning four straight games SU and covering six in a row ATS. However, this is a potential letdown spot for them ahead of Wednesday’s matchup with the defending champion Celtics in Boston. Miami remains just 15-22 on the road this season and is only four games removed from a brutal 10-game losing streak. This feels like the right time to fade the Heat and take the points with the Wizards at home.

Take Washington. Projected score: Miami 113, Washington 110.

NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Auburn at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take the contrarian approach and fade Michigan State’s recent 'under' trend in this Elite Eight showdown. While the Spartans have seen three straight games fall below the total, opposing offenses have still found success, recording at least 23 made field goals in each of their last five contests. Michigan State’s defense hasn’t necessarily locked teams down, and now they face an Auburn squad that ranks third in the country in offensive rating. The Tigers have been ramping up their tempo throughout the tournament, attempting 60, 64, and 71 field goals in their three March Madness victories. With both teams sitting around the national average in pace—Michigan State ranking 179th in adjusted tempo and Auburn at 133rd (per KenPom)—there should be enough possessions to push this game toward a higher-scoring result.

Auburn benefited from Michigan’s poor shooting in the Sweet 16, but it would be unwise to expect a similar defensive effort against Michigan State, which has been consistently efficient offensively. The Spartans have made 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, proving their ability to score regardless of the opponent. Given Auburn's willingness to push the pace and Michigan State's steady offensive production, this game has all the makings of a higher-scoring battle.

Take the over. Projected score: Auburn 81, Michigan State 76.

Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Duke minus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm ET on Saturday.

Duke enters this Elite Eight matchup off a 100-93 victory over Arizona in the Sweet 16, a game in which the Blue Devils didn’t bring their best defensive effort but still managed to advance. Despite that performance, Duke remains one of the top defensive teams in the nation, ranking fifth in defensive rating per KenPom. While Alabama’s high-powered offense will present a challenge, Duke won’t back down from a high-scoring affair, especially considering it leads the nation in offensive rating this season.

A key factor in this matchup is Duke’s ability to dictate tempo. The Blue Devils rank 264th in adjusted tempo, while Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country. If Duke can slow things down and force the Tide into more half-court possessions, it could disrupt Alabama’s rhythm. Additionally, the Crimson Tide may have exerted significant energy in their 113-88 blowout win over BYU in the Sweet 16—a performance that was impressive but potentially unnecessary in terms of margin.

With Alabama riding a streak of seven straight games scoring 80+ points and coming off back-to-back ATS wins, this feels like the right spot to fade the Tide against a more disciplined and well-rounded Duke squad. Expect the Blue Devils to control the pace and pull away late.

Take Duke. Projected score: Duke 89, Alabama 76.

Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Duke at 9:35 pm ET on Thursday.

Arizona gets a rare NCAA Tournament revenge spot here, having fallen 69-55 as a short favorite against Duke back in November. The Wildcats have been playing well down the stretch, going 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, with their only loss coming by a competitive eight-point margin against top-seeded Houston.

Duke enters this contest riding a 13-game winning streak, having covered in each of its last three games, including dominant NCAA Tournament wins over Mount St. Mary's and Baylor. However, the Blue Devils may find themselves in a much tougher battle here, as Arizona has faced the more difficult schedule this season by most metrics.

Expect a highly competitive game, with the Wildcats having a strong chance to keep this one close throughout.

Take Arizona plus the points. Projected score: Blue Devils 75, Wildcats 72.

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

The Rockets are in a good spot to bounce back ATS after three straight non-covers, coming off a 121-114 home win over Atlanta on Tuesday. With two days off after this contest, expect Houston to bring full intensity as it looks to avenge a 124-115 loss in Salt Lake City back on February 22nd.

Utah, on the other hand, has been reeling, winning just once since the start of March. The Jazz enter this contest on a three-game SU and ATS skid, suffering blowout losses by 22, 29, and 37 points. With a grueling five-game road trip beginning tomorrow in Denver, their focus could be elsewhere.

Look for the Rockets to take care of business against a struggling Jazz squad.

Take Houston. Projected score: Rockets 124, Jazz 106.

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest in the midst of prolonged losing streaks, with the Wizards dropping five straight both SU and ATS, while the 76ers have also lost five in a row outright and failed to cover in their last four contests. The difference is that Washington has every incentive to keep piling up losses as it looks to secure the league's worst record and improve its chances of landing highly touted prospect Cooper Flagg in the draft. That tanking mindset has been reflected in their recent offensive performances, as they've connected on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight and six of their last nine games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has at least managed to slow the pace in recent contests, holding four straight and six of its last seven opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts.

While the Sixers' defense has struggled mightily, their offensive production has still been superior to Washington’s, as they’ve made 40 or more field goals in four of their last six games. The 76ers already handled the Wizards at home earlier this season, winning outright but failing to cover a double-digit spread. This time around, they’re laying a much more reasonable number, making this a prime opportunity for them to snap their losing skid. With Washington likely looking ahead to a five-game homestand starting Thursday, Philadelphia should take advantage and roll to a comfortable victory.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: 76ers 118, Wizards 103.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Knicks as this spot sets up well for them, having been idle since Saturday and looking for revenge after suffering a double-digit 'upset' loss in Dallas earlier this season. The Mavericks have won back-to-back games straight-up and three in a row against the spread. They've been shooting exceptionally well but have also benefited from a relatively soft schedule in terms of recent defensive opponents. That won’t be the case on Tuesday, as they face a Knicks squad that has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and six of those foes to fewer than 40.

Dallas has essentially thrown defense out the window in recent weeks, and the Knicks appear primed to take advantage. New York has been playing at a slightly faster pace recently, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests. That increase in tempo, combined with the Mavericks' defensive shortcomings, should pave the way for a strong offensive performance from the Knicks. Look for them to control this game from start to finish and roll to a convincing double-digit victory.

Take New York. Projected score: Knicks 119, Mavericks 104.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this contest in back-to-back situations, which could lead to a sluggish offensive performance on both ends. While Philadelphia has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, its defensive issues may not be as glaring in this matchup given New Orleans’ inconsistency on offense. The Pelicans just put up 130 points in a loss to Detroit, but they haven’t strung together consecutive high-scoring performances in quite some time.

New Orleans has been playing at a slower pace, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in seven of its last eight games while also limiting opponents to the same threshold in six straight contests. The 76ers have also held five of their last six opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. While the first meeting between these teams produced 238 total points, it was played at a faster pace than what we should expect in this one.

Take the under. Projected score: New Orleans 113, Philadelphia 108.

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 9 pm ET on Sunday.

This total is the highest we've seen in this matchup all season, which feels like an overcorrection given how these teams typically play against each other. Their highest previous posted total was 220.5, and that game ended with just 197 total points.

Both squads enter off hot shooting performances, but these are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Clippers may have hit 132 and 128 points in their last two games, but they attempted just 84 and 78 field goals, indicating a reliance on unsustainable efficiency. Meanwhile, they've limited four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, while the Thunder have held three straight foes to 37 or fewer.

With both teams likely to settle into a more defensive-minded battle, I expect this game to stay under the total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Clippers 110, Thunder 107.

Second Round Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over Michigan State at 8:40 pm ET on Sunday.

New Mexico may have struggled against the spread down the stretch, but its opening-round victory over Marquette suggests it is more than capable of making noise in this tournament. The Lobos’ ability to control tempo and limit opponents' scoring opportunities makes them a tough matchup, particularly for a Michigan State squad that doesn't consistently knock down outside shots.

The Spartans cruised past Bryant in their tournament opener, but they’ll face a much stiffer test here. With New Mexico’s defensive pressure and ability to grind out possessions, I expect this game to remain close throughout.

Take New Mexico. Projected score: Michigan State 68, New Mexico 67.

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over UCLA at 9:40 pm ET on Saturday.

Tennessee didn’t deliver its best effort in the opening round, winning but failing to cover against Wofford. That performance may have been a bit of a letdown following the Vols' deep SEC Tournament run, which ended in a loss to Florida last Sunday. Expect a more focused effort here against UCLA.

The Vols hold the better overall record in this matchup and have faced a considerably tougher schedule. While UCLA looked dominant in a 72-47 blowout win over Utah State, such lopsided victories don’t always carry over well to the next round. The Bruins have struggled to maintain consistency, recording back-to-back ATS wins just once in their last seven contests.

Tennessee should impose its defensive presence and take control in this matchup.

Take Tennessee. Projected score: Tennessee 74, UCLA 62.

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

All three previous meetings between these teams this season have gone 'over' the total, and I expect another high-scoring affair here. The Wizards were trounced 120-105 at home against the Magic last night in a predictable flat spot following a long seven-game road trip. That marked the first time in nine games that Washington didn't attempt at least 90 field goals. I look for them to push the pace far more in this triple-revenge spot against the Knicks.

Defensively, the Wizards have struggled, allowing their last four opponents to connect on 48, 42, 50, and 46 field goals. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off an 'upset' loss in Charlotte in which they scored just 98 points. They have yet to be held under 100 points in consecutive games this season, making this a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Wizards team they've already torched for 134, 136, and 126 points in their three previous matchups.

Take the over. Projected score: New York 126, Washington 113.

Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Friday.

We'll lay the points with the Timberwolves in a prime revenge spot after New Orleans pulled off a surprising upset in Minnesota as a double-digit underdog two nights ago. The Pelicans had an outlier shooting performance in that game, while the Wolves struggled offensively, attempting just 77 field goals in a sluggish effort. It's worth noting that Minnesota was coming off an overtime loss to Indiana prior to that game, potentially leading to a letdown. With a chance to close out their homestand on a high note before a short break, expect a much sharper performance from the Wolves.

New Orleans has struggled against the spread recently, covering just three of its last 11 games. Just one game removed from a disastrous 46-point home loss to Detroit, the Pelicans may already be looking ahead to a rematch with the Pistons on Sunday. Look for Minnesota to take advantage and roll to a convincing win.

Take Minnesota. Projected score: Minnesota 123, New Orleans 102.

NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Troy at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Troy put together a strong three-game run to capture the Sun Belt Tournament title last week, but the step up in competition here will be significant. The Trojans pulled off upset wins over James Madison and Arkansas State to secure the conference crown, but they'll now have to contend with an angry Kentucky squad eager to bounce back from an embarrassing 29-point loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament.

While the Wildcats have failed to cover in back-to-back games, they had won three straight SU prior to that ugly setback. Kentucky's schedule strength far surpasses that of Troy, and the Wildcats' talent edge should shine through as they impose their will early and often in this one. Expect a decisive victory.

Take Kentucky. Projected score: Kentucky 85, Troy 63.

Non-Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The Bucks will be eager to bounce back from consecutive losses, both straight up and against the spread, including an upset defeat to the Warriors two nights ago. Prior to that, Milwaukee had been in solid form, winning back-to-back games both straight up and ATS, including a dominant 126-106 win over the Lakers at home. With the Bucks on a long five-game road trip, they’ll be highly motivated to avoid a third consecutive loss.

Los Angeles enters this matchup on a strong run, having won three straight games straight up and four in a row against the spread. This includes a 120-108 victory over a short-handed Nuggets team last night. However, prior to this streak, the Lakers had struggled with four consecutive losses. With the Bucks looking to get back on track after a disappointing defeat, we expect Milwaukee to cover the spread and come out strong in this game.

Take Milwaukee. Projected score: Milwaukee 118, Los Angeles 110.

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Detroit at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Pistons have dominated this season series, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Heat, including back-to-back outright 'upset' victories. However, the market has adjusted, and this time around, Detroit finds itself as a road favorite—a role that may be asking too much. The Pistons are coming off a blowout win in Utah, and I believe asking them to notch consecutive road victories is a tall order.

Miami enters this contest on an eight-game SU skid while failing to cover in its last six contests. That said, the Heat are rested and begin a five-game homestand here. This sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for Miami as it looks to turn its fortunes around in front of its home crowd.

Take Miami. Projected score: Miami 107, Detroit 103.

NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Saint Joseph's minus the points over UAB at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll back the Hawks as they look to bounce back following an 'upset' loss against George Mason in the Atlantic-10 Tournament last weekend. Saint Joe’s should benefit from an extra day of rest as UAB is coming off a hard-fought AAC Tournament final loss to Memphis on Sunday. While both teams finished the season with identical overall records, Saint Joe’s played a significantly tougher schedule by most metrics.

UAB made a solid run in the AAC Tournament, but it has still gone just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Saint Joe’s wasn’t at its best down the stretch either, but I expect the Hawks to reset and respond well in the NIT opener. Look for them to take care of business at home.

Take Saint Joseph’s. Projected score: Saint Joseph’s 79, UAB 69.

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

These teams just met on Saturday in a high-scoring affair, with the Celtics edging out a 115-113 victory. That game flew 'over' the total, as did Brooklyn's next contest, an upset win over Atlanta on Sunday. However, I anticipate a much lower-scoring matchup this time around. While the pace wasn’t overwhelming in Saturday’s meeting, Boston shot exceptionally well, and it's unlikely we see the same level of efficiency here, especially with the Celtics returning home from a short road trip and potentially looking ahead to a long six-game western swing starting Friday.

Defensively, Boston has been dominant, holding six straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Even in the lone game where it allowed 43 makes, the Celtics still held Utah to just 108 points. Notably, Boston has posted consecutive 'over' results only once since February 10th, further reinforcing the likelihood of a slower, more defensive-minded battle. Expect a lower-scoring affair at TD Garden.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 110, Brooklyn 98.

First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Francis (PA) and Alabama State at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

This ‘First Four’ matchup in Dayton may not be the most hyped game of the night, but that doesn't mean we won't see an up-tempo, high-scoring affair. While early betting action has favored the ‘under,’ we’ll go the other way and anticipate a defense-optional contest. St. Francis (PA) enters the tournament with the worst defensive rating of any team in the field, ranking 293rd nationally. Alabama State isn't far behind, sitting at 256th, making these two squads the two worst defensive teams in March Madness.

Offensively, neither team is elite, but Alabama State does like to push the pace, ranking 142nd in adjusted tempo. Early-season non-conference action saw both teams trend toward high-scoring games, and I expect a return to that style in this setting. With neither team boasting a reliable defense, open looks and easy baskets should come frequently, leading to a higher total than the market anticipates.

Take the over. Projected score: Alabama State 78, St. Francis (PA) 74.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Pacers saw their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Saturday, falling short against a motivated Bucks squad. That marked their second straight ATS loss, but I like their chances to bounce back as they take on a Timberwolves team that may be a little less focused in a back-to-back situation. Indiana has quietly done an excellent job of limiting opposing scoring opportunities, holding its last three opponents to just 84, 82, and 79 field goal attempts. If the Pacers can control the tempo on Monday, they should be well-positioned to stay within the number.

Minnesota enters this game riding an eight-game winning streak, having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. The Timberwolves are coming off a dominant 128-102 victory over Utah last night in a revenge spot, but this sets up as a potential letdown game. Feeling good about itself and perhaps looking past a banged-up opponent, I see Minnesota struggling to put Indiana away.

Take Indiana. Projected score: Minnesota 114, Indiana 112.

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 6 pm et on Saturday.

We'll take the generous points with Brooklyn as the Nets look to bounce back from consecutive losses in a home game against the Celtics. Boston is coming off a win and cover in Miami last night and may have its focus shifted toward a couple of days off before their next matchup on Tuesday at home against this same Brooklyn team. Prior to last night's win, the Celtics had dropped the cash in consecutive games and are just 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games.

Brooklyn will be motivated to keep this divisional game closer than expected. With the Celtics potentially looking past this one, we like the Nets to cover the spread.

Take Brooklyn. Projected score: Boston 112, Brooklyn 108.

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Tulane at 3 pm et on Friday.

Florida Atlantic will be highly motivated in this matchup, looking to avenge its 80-65 road loss to Tulane back in January while also pushing forward in the AAC Tournament. The Owls got past Charlotte on Thursday but failed to cover, which could work in their favor as they aim for a sharper performance here. Meanwhile, Tulane has been idle since its convincing 85-68 win over UAB on Sunday, giving it extra rest but potentially leading to a slow start. Florida Atlantic holds a significant edge in strength of schedule, having faced tougher competition throughout the season, which should better prepare them for this pressure-packed tournament setting.

The revenge angle certainly favors the Owls, but so does their ability to control the tempo and limit Tulane’s high-powered offense. Florida Atlantic's balanced attack should be able to exploit Tulane's defensive lapses, something the Green Wave has struggled with at times this season. Expect the Owls to take control early and maintain their edge throughout, using their depth and experience to pull away late. Given the circumstances, the short number looks like a bargain on the superior team.

Take Florida Atlantic. Projected score: Florida Atlantic 82, Tulane 72.

Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Saint Joseph's minus the points over La Salle at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We'll back the Hawks as they look to bounce back from Saturday’s upset loss against La Salle. The Explorers have been riding a wave of momentum, covering the spread in three straight games and securing back-to-back upset victories, including yesterday’s 78-71 tournament win over UMass. However, fatigue could be a factor here as they face a well-rested Saint Joseph's squad.

Prior to Saturday’s setback, the Hawks had won five consecutive games outright and covered the spread in eight straight. They’ve also posted the better overall record this season and have faced a more difficult schedule by most metrics. Look for Saint Joseph’s to assert itself early and pull away for a convincing victory.

Take Saint Joseph's. Projected score: Saint Joseph’s 84, La Salle 67.

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Tar Heels will be eager to bounce back after suffering a double-digit SU and ATS loss to rival Duke on Saturday, which snapped a six-game winning streak. North Carolina had been rolling prior to that setback, and I expect them to come out strong against a Notre Dame squad that may be running on fumes.

The Irish have put together an impressive three-game winning streak, including a hard-fought upset win over Pittsburgh yesterday. However, that game followed an emotionally exhausting 112-110 victory over California, and asking them to pull off another strong performance against a far superior North Carolina team could be too much.

While the Tar Heels only edged out a one-point victory in their lone regular season meeting with Notre Dame, I expect a much different result this time around, given the situational edge and talent disparity.

Take North Carolina. Projected score: North Carolina 78, Notre Dame 62.

Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Indiana enters this contest on a five-game 'under' streak, but that trend is unlikely to continue given the way both teams play. The Pacers pushed the pace in Monday's loss to Chicago, firing off 101 field goal attempts but struggling with their shooting. That kind of volume is encouraging for an 'over' play, as the scoring will likely bounce back sooner rather than later. Indiana has consistently created plenty of opportunities, hoisting at least 90 shots in three straight games while showing little commitment to defense, allowing at least 94 opponent field goal attempts in four consecutive contests.

Milwaukee should also be in an aggressive mindset after dropping back-to-back games over the weekend. The Bucks had been giving up plenty of high-percentage looks before Sunday's loss to Cleveland, having allowed five straight opponents to hit 42+ field goals. That should work in Indiana’s favor, as the Pacers have shown they’re willing to push the tempo regardless of their recent shooting struggles.

With two uptempo teams and both squads eager to get back on track, expect a high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Milwaukee 127, Indiana 122.

CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on College of Charleston plus the points over UNC-Wilmington at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

Charleston has revenge on its mind after dropping both regular-season meetings against UNC-Wilmington, and I like its chances of keeping this one competitive as it fights to stay alive in the CAA Tournament. While the two teams boast nearly identical records, Charleston has navigated the more difficult schedule this season, which should serve it well in this high-stakes matchup.

The Cougars enter this contest off a hard-fought 79-78 win over Monmouth yesterday, falling just short of an ATS cover. That result snapped a brief two-game ATS winning streak, but Charleston remains 4-2 ATS over its last six contests. Meanwhile, UNC-Wilmington has been rolling with four consecutive wins and covers, blowing out its last three opponents. However, that dominant run could leave it vulnerable to a letdown in this spot.

I expect a tight, down-to-the-wire battle, making the points with Charleston an appealing option.

Take College of Charleston. Projected score: College of Charleston 74, UNC-Wilmington 72.

Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Monday.

I'll back the Nuggets as they seek immediate revenge for yesterday's lopsided loss in Oklahoma City. The teams have now met three times this season, with the Thunder taking two of those matchups, but Denver has an opportunity to respond in this quick turnaround spot. Prior to Sunday’s defeat, the Nuggets had won two straight games and covered back-to-back contests. Given their standing among the Western Conference elite, I expect a much stronger effort in this rematch.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are riding high with seven straight wins, including three consecutive covers. While they've been playing excellent basketball, this is a potential flat spot for OKC, as it looks ahead to a challenging three-game road trip starting in Boston on Wednesday. With the Nuggets eager to respond after a rare blowout loss, I'll take the points with the defending champs.

Take Denver. Projected score: Denver 119, Oklahoma City 118.

Sun Belt Game of the Week. My selection is on Arkansas State minus the points over Troy at 7 pm et on Monday.

Arkansas State has come up short at the betting window in consecutive games, including a narrow missed cover in a win over South Alabama last night. However, this sets up as a prime opportunity for the Red Wolves to cash in as they look to avenge a one-point loss to Troy in mid-February—a game in which they were favored by seven points. Despite their recent ATS struggles, Arkansas State has put together the better overall record this season and has faced the tougher schedule, giving them the edge in this rematch. With added motivation and a short spread to cover, expect a strong effort from the Red Wolves.

Troy comes into this game riding a five-game ATS winning streak, but its recent stretch of dominant victories may leave it ill-prepared for a battle against an Arkansas State squad that will be hungry for redemption. The Trojans haven’t faced as much adversity in recent outings, and this step up in competition could expose them. Look for the Red Wolves to control the tempo and secure a decisive win.

Take Arkansas State. Projected score: Arkansas State 75, Troy 67.

Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Bradley and Drake at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

Despite both regular-season meetings between these teams staying 'under' the total, I expect a different outcome in this high-stakes MVC Championship matchup. With an even lower posted total for this contest, there's value in backing the 'over.' Bradley enters off a low-scoring semifinal win over Valparaiso, marking its fourth consecutive game that has either stayed 'under' or pushed. However, the Braves have the offensive capability to contribute their share of points, especially in a game that figures to be competitive until the final buzzer.

Drake has also seen its first two tournament games finish below the total, but it's worth noting that the first of those actually surpassed the number set for this game. Given the familiarity between these two rivals and the increased sense of urgency in a championship setting, I expect a more aggressive offensive approach from both teams. With efficient scoring, late free throws, and the possibility of an overtime thriller, the stage is set for this total to be eclipsed.

Take the over. Projected score: Bradley 68, Drake 65.

Big Sky Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Washington plus the points over Northern Arizona at 10 pm et on Saturday.

Eastern Washington enters this Big Sky Tournament matchup looking to end a five-game losing streak straight up and a six-game skid against the spread. Despite its struggles, EWU has faced a much tougher schedule than Northern Arizona and has shown signs of improvement, narrowly missing the cover in a competitive road game against Montana earlier this week. Additionally, the Eagles will be highly motivated to avenge a pair of regular-season losses to the Lumberjacks, both of which came both SU and ATS. This tournament setting presents an opportunity for EWU to flip the script against an inconsistent Northern Arizona squad that has been far from dominant in recent weeks.

Northern Arizona is coming off an 'upset' win at Idaho State on Monday, but it's been a rollercoaster team of late, alternating wins and losses both SU and ATS over its last five contests. The Lumberjacks have gone just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games and haven't shown enough consistency to warrant laying points in this spot. Given EWU’s more challenging schedule and motivation for revenge, expect the Eagles to rise to the occasion and deliver a strong performance.

Take Eastern Washington. Projected score: Eastern Washington 72, Northern Arizona 68.

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State will be highly motivated to avenge an earlier 80-61 blowout loss at home against Kansas State. The Cyclones own the better overall record this season and have navigated the more difficult schedule, putting them in a strong position to respond in this rematch. They enter off a disappointing loss at home against BYU, which should only add fuel to their fire as they look to bounce back. Kansas State, meanwhile, has strung together consecutive wins and covered the spread in three straight games, but that recent success could leave the Wildcats in a prime letdown spot. Iowa State has the defensive intensity and disciplined play to exploit any complacency from Kansas State and turn this into a dominant performance.

With the Cyclones looking to get back on track and Kansas State potentially due for a regression, this sets up as an ideal spot for Iowa State to take control. The Cyclones will be eager to prove that the first meeting was a fluke and should dictate the tempo with their physical play and defensive pressure. Kansas State has been inconsistent throughout the season, and asking it to maintain its recent form against a fired-up Iowa State squad is a tall order. Look for the Cyclones to set the tone early and pull away for a convincing victory.

Take Iowa State. Projected score: Iowa State 74, Kansas State 61.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Old Dominion at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

Appalachian State enters this matchup with plenty of motivation, not only looking to advance in the Sun Belt Tournament but also seeking revenge after suffering an upset loss at home to Old Dominion in late January. While the Mountaineers have hit a rough patch, dropping three straight games SU and failing to cover in five consecutive contests, they’ve had nearly a full week to regroup and prepare for this opportunity. That rest advantage should play a key role against an Old Dominion squad that has already played two tournament games over the last two days. Fatigue could start to set in for the Monarchs, especially after their upset win over Texas State yesterday.

Old Dominion has won three straight games, but before that, it had lost six in a row while covering the spread just once during that stretch. Its recent success has likely inflated the line slightly, but the Monarchs are still up against it here. Appalachian State owns the superior record and has played the tougher schedule, and with fresh legs and added motivation, the Mountaineers should take full control of this game and cruise to a comfortable victory.

Take Appalachian State. Projected score: Appalachian State 77, Old Dominion 63.

MEAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Morgan State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

While Coppin State holds the worse overall record in this matchup, it has faced a significantly tougher schedule, which should serve it well in this revenge spot. The Eagles will be looking to bounce back after dropping two straight games, including an unexpected loss to Maryland-Eastern Shore on Monday. Despite falling by a 16-point margin in the first meeting against Morgan State back in January, Coppin State should be better prepared this time around, particularly with the added motivation of playing on its home floor.

Morgan State enters this contest riding a two-game winning streak, but it could be in for a letdown after pulling off an upset victory over Delaware State on Monday. The Bears have been inconsistent for much of the season, making them vulnerable in this type of spot. Expect Coppin State to push the tempo and keep this game competitive, with a legitimate shot at springing the upset.

Take Coppin State. Projected score: Coppin State 70, Morgan State 68.

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a tricky scheduling spot for Minnesota as it looks to secure a third straight win both straight-up and against the spread after a second consecutive double-digit victory last night over Philadelphia. Prior to that surge, the Timberwolves had dropped back-to-back games both SU and ATS and have struggled with consistency dating back to early February. With this being the second leg of a back-to-back and a potential letdown looming, I don’t expect the same level of intensity from Minnesota in this matchup.

Charlotte is in the midst of a rough stretch, having lost seven in a row while dropping its last two against the spread. That said, this is a favorable revenge spot for the Hornets after suffering a blowout loss in Minnesota earlier this season. Already 0-2 on their current homestand, they’ll be eager to turn things around before Cleveland arrives on Friday. Given the situation, I expect Charlotte to come out with energy and push Minnesota in what should be a closer game than anticipated.

Take Charlotte. Projected score: Minnesota 106, Charlotte 104.

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over UNLV at 11 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the short number with the revenge-minded Aztecs after they were stunned 76-68 as a double-digit home favorite against UNLV earlier this season. It's been a banner season by all accounts for San Diego State as it has gone 20-7 to this point and has faced a more difficult schedule than 16-13 UNLV, even if only slightly.

San Diego State is coming off an ATS defeat on Saturday at Wyoming. However, note that the Aztecs haven't dropped the cash in consecutive games since a four-game slide in late January-early February. Meanwhile, UNLV is in a clear letdown spot following consecutive wins and covers, including an upset home victory over Nevada last Friday.

Take San Diego State. Projected score: San Diego State 75, UNLV 66.

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with Arkansas as it looks to rebound following a blowout loss in what projected as a toss-up game at South Carolina on Saturday. That loss only served to snap a two-game SU winning streak and an incredible 7-0-1 ATS run. I look for the Razorbacks to bounce back and at least take this game down to the wire.

Vanderbilt has reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS, including back-to-back upset victories in its last two contests. While these two teams own similar overall records this season (Vandy's is slightly better), Arkansas has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Expect a competitive affair all the way with the Hogs putting the Commodores on upset alert.

Take Arkansas. Projected score: Vanderbilt 74, Arkansas 72.

Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland minus the points over Green Bay at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with Oakland as it looks to advance past Green Bay in convincing fashion in this Horizon League Tournament opener. These two teams just met on Saturday, with Oakland eking out an 87-84 win but failing to cover the spread.

Oakland has gone 4-2 over its last six games and had delivered the cash in consecutive contests before Saturday. Despite a 14-17 overall record, the Grizzlies have hung tough against difficult opponents and have faced a tougher schedule than Green Bay, which has struggled to a 4-27 mark.

Green Bay enters this contest having cashed five straight ATS tickets, which I believe has led to a slightly deflated number in Oakland’s favor. Expect the Grizzlies to pull away for a double-digit victory.

Take Oakland. Projected score: Oakland 84, Green Bay 67.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Portland and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams are coming off 'over' results, with Portland cashing three straight, but the numbers suggest a lower-scoring contest here. The Blazers' game in Cleveland yesterday included overtime, yet both teams still only made 42 field goals each. Portland has quietly tightened up defensively, holding five of its last six opponents under 40 made field goals in regulation.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, snapped a long losing streak with an 'upset' win over Golden State on Saturday, thanks to an uncharacteristically hot shooting night. That type of offensive explosion has been rare for the 76ers, who have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Expect this matchup to settle into a slower-paced, defensive-oriented affair.

Take the under. Projected score: 76ers 108 Trail Blazers 102.

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the over between the Clippers and Lakers at 9:30 pm ET on Sunday.

These teams just faced off on Friday in a defensive battle that ended in a 106-102 Lakers victory. However, I expect a faster pace and higher-scoring affair in this rematch.

The Lakers have now gone under the total in six consecutive games, matching their longest such streak of the season. That trend has likely caused oddsmakers to set the total a bit too low for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been alternating between over and under results, having not played consecutive under games since mid-January. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect this one to break the recent under trend.

Take the over. Projected score: Clippers 118, Lakers 113.

Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois State minus the points over Evansville at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

The Redbirds will be out for revenge after suffering a surprising 69-51 loss at Evansville earlier this season. While Illinois State has dropped back-to-back ATS decisions, this sets up as a strong rebound opportunity in its home finale.

Evansville enters this matchup riding a four-game ATS winning streak, but it has also lost two straight games outright. The Purple Aces have struggled overall this season and own the weaker record between these two teams, despite facing a similar strength of schedule.

Look for Illinois State to assert itself at home and secure a comfortable victory.

Take Illinois State. Projected score: Illinois State 76, Evansville 60.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams enter this matchup riding 'under' streaks, the recent pace of play and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a higher-scoring affair. Milwaukee has seen back-to-back 'under' results, but those games weren’t due to a lack of opportunities—its opponents attempted 91 and 105 field goals, exposing some defensive weaknesses. On the offensive side, the Bucks found a rhythm in their recent win over Denver, putting up 90 field goal attempts, their most in seven games.

Dallas has cashed four straight 'under' tickets, but that has more to do with poor shooting efficiency than a lack of possessions. The Mavericks have attempted 98 and 97 field goals in their last two games, keeping the pace high. More importantly, their defense has been shaky, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to get off more than 90 shot attempts. If Milwaukee continues to push the tempo and Dallas struggles defensively, this total should be in play for an 'over.'

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Milwaukee 122, Dallas 118.

NEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago State plus the points over Saint Francis (PA) at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with Chicago State as it looks to close its regular season on a high note in a revenge spot against Saint Francis (PA). The Red Flash took the first meeting between these teams 81-69 as a short two-point road favorite back on February 8th. However, Saint Francis enters this contest in a clear letdown spot after recording back-to-back wins and covers.

Chicago State has certainly faced the tougher overall schedule compared to Saint Francis, which has played one of the weakest slates in the NEC this season. While the Cougars are riding a six-game losing streak SU and have dropped two straight ATS, I expect them to put up a strong fight in this rematch. Look for Chicago State to keep things competitive and take this one down to the wire at the very least.

Take Chicago State. Projected score: Saint Francis (PA) 72, Chicago State 70.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Marshall at 9 pm ET on Friday.

This is a quick rematch of a game played less than a week ago, where Marshall pulled off a 69-59 upset win as a 3.5-point underdog on the road. I expect Appalachian State to turn the tables in the rematch as it heads to Marshall looking to snap its recent skid.

Despite their nearly identical overall records, Appalachian State has faced the more difficult schedule this season, which should serve them well in this revenge spot. The Mountaineers will be highly motivated to avoid closing out the regular season on a three-game losing streak, especially after four straight ATS losses. Meanwhile, Marshall is in a potential letdown spot following three consecutive SU victories (2-0-1 ATS).

Look for a much more competitive game this time around, with Appalachian State keeping things close, if not winning outright.

Take Appalachian State. Projected score: Appalachian State 72, Marshall 70.

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Chicago at 8 pm ET on Friday.

The Raptors are coming off a predictable 111-91 blowout loss in Indiana, where they ran into a highly motivated Pacers squad seeking revenge. Now, the script flips as Toronto will look to avenge two previous losses against Chicago this season, including an ‘upset’ defeat as a 4.5-point home favorite on January 31st.

Despite their ATS setback against the Pacers, the Raptors remain an impressive 13-7 ATS over their last 20 games. Meanwhile, the Bulls enter this contest on a four-game ATS winning streak but have won outright just once in their last eight outings. Chicago’s porous defense has been a glaring issue, as it has allowed nine of its last ten opponents to make at least 42 field goals.

Toronto is primed for a bounce-back effort offensively after shooting just 37-for-87 from the field in Indiana. Expect the Raptors to keep this one tight, if not pull off the outright win.

Take Toronto. Projected score: Toronto 115, Chicago 112.

Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown over Harvard at 5 pm ET on Friday.

We'll back the Brown Bears as they seek revenge for an earlier blowout loss against Harvard this season. That defeat came as a 4.5-point home favorite, adding extra motivation for the Bears here. Brown is also looking to bounce back after an 85-81 loss at home against Cornell last time out. Prior to that, the Bears had strung together four straight ATS victories.

Harvard, on the other hand, enters this contest riding a four-game ATS winning streak, but it's coming off a narrow 79-78 'upset' loss on the road against Penn. The Crimson could be in for a letdown here, while Brown should be primed to respond with a strong performance.

Take Brown. Projected score: Brown 74, Harvard 69.

WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pepperdine plus the points over Portland at 10 pm ET on Thursday.

Portland dominated the first meeting between these two teams with an 84-64 road victory back on February 1st, but I expect a much more competitive contest this time around as Pepperdine seeks revenge.

The Waves enter this game on a three-game losing streak, including a double-digit ATS loss at Loyola Marymount last time out. Meanwhile, Portland has been on a roll, winning three of its last four games SU while covering the spread in four straight. However, it's worth noting that Pepperdine has faced the tougher schedule this season, and the two teams have nearly identical overall records.

Given the circumstances, I expect Pepperdine to put forth a strong effort and keep this game extremely close at the very least.

Take Pepperdine. Projected score: Pepperdine 75, Portland 73.

C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

MTSU will be seeking revenge after dropping a 61-57 home decision to NMSU back on January 30th. The Blue Raiders have been trending in the right direction since then, winning four of their last six games SU, including a victory over Sam Houston State on Saturday.

The strength of schedule also leans in MTSU’s favor, as the Blue Raiders have played a tougher slate compared to the Aggies while also owning the better overall record this season.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State enters this contest in a letdown spot, having won three straight games both SU and ATS, with back-to-back upsets in its last two contests. Returning home after that type of stretch can often lead to a dip in performance, and I expect MTSU to capitalize.

Look for the Blue Raiders to keep this one close and have a real shot at the outright victory.

Take Middle Tennessee State plus the points. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 69, New Mexico State 67.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the over between Sacramento and Utah at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams are coming off 'under' results, but I expect a different outcome in this matchup. The Kings took advantage of a struggling Hornets squad two nights ago, holding them to just 30 made field goals in a blowout win. However, prior to that game, Sacramento had allowed at least 43 made field goals in 9 of its previous 10 and 12 of its last 14 contests.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are fresh off a poor shooting performance against Portland on Monday, but they've attempted 90 or more field goals in three straight games. They’ll have their chances to bounce back offensively here. On the defensive side, Utah has been highly permissive, allowing six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals.

Sacramento has been efficient offensively, making 40+ field goals in six straight games and 25 of its last 26. This game has all the makings of a high-paced, high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Kings 128, Jazz 122.

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Boston College at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Boston College enters this matchup riding high off consecutive 'upset' victories and four straight ATS wins. However, I expect its run to come to an end as it travels west to take on ACC newcomer Stanford.

The Cardinal snapped a two-game slide with a 66-61 home victory over Cal on Saturday but once again failed to cover the spread, marking their seventh consecutive ATS loss. Despite their struggles against the number, Stanford owns the better overall record this season and has faced a tougher schedule by most metrics.

With a tougher matchup against SMU looming, I look for the Cardinal to lock in and deliver a dominant performance here.

Take Stanford. Projected score: Stanford 75, Boston College 61.

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Toronto at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Pacers were in a tough spot on Monday, playing the second leg of a back-to-back against a well-rested Denver squad eager to snap its losing skid. Indiana came up short both SU and ATS in that contest, but I expect a much stronger performance here.

With a day of rest, Indiana should be in prime position to bounce back against a Raptors team that just covered the spread in a hard-fought home game against Boston last night. This will be a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, playing its second game in as many nights and heading on the road against a motivated Pacers team.

Indiana has undoubtedly had this game circled after suffering two 'upset' losses in Toronto earlier this season. Look for the Pacers to take care of business at home.

Take Indiana. Projected score: Indiana 128, Toronto 111.

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Western Michigan plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

Ohio comes into this matchup with momentum after an 'upset' blowout win over Akron, completing a two-game homestand sweep. However, the Bobcats are just 15-12 overall and have faced a relatively weak schedule compared to Western Michigan.

The Broncos will be looking to avenge one of their worst losses of the season, a 94-69 road defeat against Ohio earlier this month. While Western Michigan is coming off an ugly 86-57 home loss to Central Michigan on Saturday, that result snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak. I expect them to regroup and keep this one much more competitive than their previous meeting with the Bobcats.

Take Western Michigan. Projected score: Ohio 75, Western Michigan 74.

Big Ten Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Northwestern at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Golden Gophers have faced a tougher schedule this season compared to the Wildcats, and despite coming off an upset loss to Penn State, they will be highly motivated to bounce back on their home floor. Minnesota had a challenging spot on Saturday after a successful road trip to California, which contributed to the loss, but they should be better prepared for this matchup.

Northwestern, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot. They’re coming off a big win against Ohio State, but that victory came after a three-game losing streak, and they’ve struggled to find consistency, especially on the road. They are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games, which indicates they are vulnerable in situations like this.

Minnesota’s defense and rebounding advantage should help them cover the spread and secure a solid victory here.

Take Minnesota. Projected score: Minnesota 74, Northwestern 64.

MEAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Howard at 8 pm ET on Monday.

We'll take the points with Coppin State as it looks to avenge an earlier 90-75 road loss to Howard. While the Bison have the superior overall record, they've played a significantly weaker strength of schedule. Howard is coming off a road win and cover against Morgan State on Saturday, but it's worth noting that the Bison have struggled away from home, posting a 4-10 SU road record this season.

Coppin State has dropped three straight games SU and two in a row ATS, but the Eagles have only played eight of their 25 games this season at home. With three of their final four regular-season contests being played in their own building, I expect them to put up a stronger effort in this one. Look for Coppin State to keep things competitive.

Take Coppin State plus the points. Projected score: Howard 74, Coppin State 71.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bucks have embraced a more methodical approach in recent games, resulting in three straight victories and three consecutive 'under' cashes. They've attempted 82 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games, converting on fewer than 40 of those in all four contests. That trend aligns with a defensive emphasis that has seen Milwaukee hold each of its last four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals.

Miami figures to present another tough defensive challenge. The Heat have limited four of their last six opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they managed an efficient 46 field goals in Friday’s 120-111 win over Toronto, that came against a far weaker defensive opponent than the Bucks. Prior to that, Miami had been held to under 40 field goals in four straight games.

These two teams last met on January 23rd in a game that was played at a faster pace than expected yet still finished with just 221 total points. Given both teams' recent trends and defensive focus, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 108, Miami 104.

Big West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine minus the points over Cal State-Bakersfield at 9:30 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll back the Anteaters to rebound in dominant fashion after suffering an unexpected home loss to Cal State-Northridge on Thursday. That defeat snapped a short two-game winning streak, but it should serve as a wake-up call for a 22-5 Cal-Irvine squad that remains the superior team in this matchup. While the Anteaters have struggled against the spread recently, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, this sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot against an overmatched Cal State-Bakersfield squad. The Roadrunners have managed to win back-to-back games both SU and ATS, including an 'upset' at Cal-Davis on Thursday, but they’ve faced a considerably weaker schedule than Irvine and could be in for a letdown here.

Cal-Irvine holds distinct advantages on both ends of the floor, ranking among the top teams in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Bakersfield has struggled against high-caliber opponents, and its recent success doesn’t erase the fact that it has been inconsistent for much of the season. Look for the Anteaters to assert themselves early and pull away late for a decisive victory.

Take Cal-Irvine. Projected score: Cal-Irvine 78, Cal State-Bakersfield 63.

My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Cal State-Northridge at 5 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll back the home underdog as Cal-Davis looks to avenge an earlier lopsided loss to Cal State-Northridge. While Northridge comes in riding a six-game winning streak, including an impressive road upset over Cal-Irvine two nights ago, that victory puts the Matadors in a classic letdown spot. Meanwhile, Cal-Davis is desperate to right the ship after dropping back-to-back games SU and three straight ATS. Despite Northridge owning the better overall record, Cal-Davis has played the tougher schedule by most metrics, and that experience against stronger competition could pay dividends in a closely contested matchup.

With revenge on its mind and an opportunity to capitalize on a potentially fatigued and overvalued Northridge squad, Cal-Davis should put forth one of its better performances of the season. The Aggies’ defense will need to step up, but their extra motivation combined with the home-court edge should make this one much tighter than expected. An outright upset is well within reach.

Take Cal-Davis. Projected score: Cal-Davis 73, Cal State-Northridge 70.

Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Penn at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Dartmouth comes in on a three-game 'under' streak, but I expect that trend to reverse here. While the Big Green have managed to keep recent opponents in check offensively, they’ve also allowed eight straight teams to hoist more than 60 field goal attempts. That suggests their recent 'under' run has been more about poor shooting from opponents than a true defensive lockdown.

Penn, meanwhile, is struggling through a five-game losing streak and will likely come out with urgency. The Quakers have been poor defensively, allowing 11 of their last 12 opponents to knock down 27 or more field goals, with six of those foes reaching the 30-field goal mark.

The first meeting between these teams totaled 143 points, and we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around. Given the expected pace and defensive struggles on Penn’s side, I believe that number is justified.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn 81, Dartmouth 76.

Big Sky Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Idaho State minus the points over Portland State at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll lay the short number with Idaho State as it looks to snap a two-game SU and ATS skid while avenging an earlier loss to Portland State. The Bengals should be highly motivated to get back on track after back-to-back defeats, and they’ll have the benefit of playing at home.

Portland State comes in riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak, but both of those victories came on its home floor. While the Vikings own the better overall record, Idaho State has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Look for the Bengals to assert themselves and pull away down the stretch.

Take Idaho State. Projected score: Idaho State 74, Portland State 67.

Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Austin Peay plus the points over Queens-Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

Austin Peay will look to bounce back after suffering a blowout road loss against Bellarmine on Tuesday. While the Governors were struggling in that one, Queens-Charlotte was picking up a comfortable double-digit win over Central Arkansas. However, despite the Royals' superior record, Austin Peay has faced a tougher overall schedule and should be more competitive in this rematch.

The Governors will also have revenge on their minds after falling 67-60 at home to Queens-Charlotte back on January 11th. Expect an even closer contest this time around, with Austin Peay keeping it tight.

Take Austin Peay. Projected score: Queens-Charlotte 74, Austin Peay 73.

Southern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Wofford minus the points over VMI at 6 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Terriers look to bounce back after a home loss to Samford, which snapped a brief two-game winning streak. While Wofford and VMI have similar overall records, Wofford has faced a significantly tougher schedule. Additionally, the Terriers have been strong on the road, winning three straight away from home.

VMI is coming off an 'upset' win at Mercer but has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, both SU and ATS. Despite their solid betting record this season, the Keydets have benefited from a relatively soft schedule. Expect Wofford to take care of business and cover the number comfortably.

Take Wofford. Projected score: Wofford 78, VMI 65.

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over BYU at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Jayhawks have struggled against the spread lately, dropping three straight ATS decisions, including an outright upset loss at Utah on Saturday. However, this is a prime bounce-back spot for Kansas, as it remains on the road to take on a BYU squad riding high off consecutive wins and covers.

The Cougars impressed with a dominant 15-point victory over Kansas State on Saturday, but this marks a step up in competition. While both teams share identical overall records, Kansas has navigated a significantly tougher schedule and should be well-prepared for this challenge.

Expect a highly competitive battle, with Kansas ultimately proving its toughness in a tightly contested affair.

Take Kansas. Projected score: Kansas 75, BYU 72.

SEC Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Florida at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Sooners enter this matchup on a four-game slide, both SU and ATS, including an upset loss at home against LSU on Saturday. That sets up a strong bounce-back opportunity, as they look to regain form against a Florida team riding high off four consecutive wins, both SU and ATS, capped by a dominant performance against South Carolina.

While Florida owns the better overall record, Oklahoma has been tested by the more difficult schedule. The Gators could find themselves in a bit of a letdown spot here, making this a prime opportunity for the Sooners to keep things competitive and potentially pull off the upset.

Take Oklahoma. Projected score: Florida 78, Oklahoma 72.

Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Northwestern State minus the points over Lamar at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

We'll lay the short number with Northwestern State as it looks to rebound from an 'upset' home loss against Stephen F. Austin on Saturday, a defeat that snapped its three-game ATS winning streak. Despite the setback, Northwestern State has faced the more difficult schedule this season and should be in a strong position to respond here.

Lamar enters off a win and cover to start its four-game road trip. The Cardinals have won three straight SU and back-to-back games ATS, but this sets up as a tough test against a revenge-minded Northwestern State squad. Lamar won the first meeting between these teams by 10 points at home on January 27th, and I expect Northwestern State to return the favor on Monday night.

Take Northwestern State. Projected score: Northwestern State 77, Lamar 69.

SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Missouri at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can with Georgia in this spot as the Bulldogs look to bounce back following back-to-back losses both SU and ATS. Despite those setbacks, Georgia has been tested against a stronger overall schedule than Missouri and should be prepared for this challenge.

Missouri enters this game off a dominant 24-point home rout of Oklahoma, putting them in a prime letdown position. The Tigers may have the slightly better overall record, but they haven’t consistently faced the same level of competition that Georgia has. Given the situational edge and Georgia's ability to rise to the occasion against quality opponents, I like the Bulldogs' chances to keep this game close—or even pull off the outright upset.

Take Georgia. Projected score: Georgia 72, Missouri 69.

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CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on College of Charleston minus the points over North Carolina A&T at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

I'll lay the points with the Cougars as they look to bounce back from a lopsided loss at NC-Wilmington on Thursday. That defeat halted a brief two-game winning streak, but I expect them to respond in a favorable matchup against a North Carolina A&T squad that has been playing above its level recently.

These two teams met just last week in a game that was tighter than expected, with Charleston winning by three but failing to cover as a massive 17-point favorite. That result should work in our favor here, as it ensures Charleston won’t take this rematch lightly. The Cougars have played a significantly tougher schedule and own the far superior overall record, which should shine through in this one.

Meanwhile, North Carolina A&T is riding high after three consecutive ATS wins, including an outright upset at Elon on Thursday. Given that recent success, I see a letdown coming here against a superior opponent.

Take College of Charleston. Projected score: College of Charleston 82, North Carolina A&T 65.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Georgia Southern at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll lay the points with James Madison as it looks to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Toledo on Saturday, which snapped its five-game winning streak. The Dukes have been the stronger team this season, owning the better overall record while also facing a considerably tougher schedule than Georgia Southern.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern enters fresh off an 'upset' road win over Western Michigan on Saturday. That victory gave the Eagles consecutive wins, but they have yet to string together more than three in a row all season. It's worth noting that their win over Western Michigan only served to end a two-game ATS losing streak.

Look for James Madison to assert its dominance and roll to a decisive victory.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 80, Georgia Southern 70.

Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on North Florida plus the points over North Alabama at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll take the points with North Florida as it looks to avenge an earlier home loss against North Alabama. While North Alabama boasts the better overall record this season, it has done so against a significantly weaker schedule compared to North Florida. The Ospreys have proven their ability to rise to the occasion, securing outright road wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech earlier in the season.

North Florida enters this matchup looking to rebound from consecutive ATS defeats, including an outright home loss to Florida Gulf Coast on Saturday. Prior to that, it had won three straight games. Meanwhile, North Alabama is riding a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS, but that run has come against relatively weak competition. The Lions are coming off a successful two-game road sweep against Austin Peay and West Georgia, where they were favored in both contests. This feels like a prime letdown spot for them.

Look for North Florida to keep this one tight, if not pull off the outright upset.

Take North Florida. Projected score: North Alabama 74, North Florida 72.

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest on two-game 'under' streaks, but I expect a shift toward a higher-scoring affair. The Suns are coming off their second straight loss, falling 119-112 at home to the Grizzlies last night. A big reason for Phoenix’s struggles has been its porous defense, allowing four consecutive opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. The Suns have also given up 40 or more made field goals in 16 of their last 18 games, with their last four foes connecting on 52, 48, 45, and 43 shots from the field.

That defensive vulnerability sets up a prime bounce-back spot for a rested and favored Houston squad. The Rockets struggled offensively in a sluggish 94-87 matinee victory over Toronto on Sunday, shooting just 31-for-86 from the field. However, they showed their ability to push the pace in their previous outing, hoisting up 100 shot attempts against the Mavericks. Two of Houston’s last three opponents have attempted 90 or more field goals, paving the way for an up-tempo battle on Wednesday.

Take the over. Projected score: Houston 118, Phoenix 114.

Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the 76ers as they look to snap their three-game SU and four-game ATS losing streaks at home against their division rival. Philadelphia has been caught up in consecutive high-paced matchups on the road against Detroit and Milwaukee but should be able to dictate the tempo in this contest against an inferior Toronto squad.

The Raptors have dropped four straight games but have managed to cover the spread in their last two. However, that doesn’t mean they’re playing well—they’ve made fewer than 40 field goals in three straight contests, highlighting their offensive struggles. Expect Philadelphia to take control early and roll to a double-digit victory.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 119, Toronto 102.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll take the points with Buffalo as it looks to snap a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, on the road against Northern Illinois. While the Bulls have had a disappointing season, they actually own the slightly better overall record in this matchup and have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. With four of their next six games at home, this could be a key turning point for them.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has dropped four straight games, including two in a row ATS. With three of its next four games coming on the road, there’s little reason to expect a turnaround. While the Huskies did put together a five-game ATS winning streak from January 18th to February 1st, they’ve otherwise struggled against the spread, posting a 4-11 ATS mark outside of that stretch. Expect Buffalo to take advantage and stage the minor upset.

Take Buffalo. Projected score: Buffalo 76, Northern Illinois 73.

SWAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama State plus the points over Southern at 7 pm ET on Monday.

We'll grab the points with Alabama State as it hosts Southern in this conference matchup. While Southern owns the better overall record, Alabama State has faced a considerably tougher schedule this season.

The Hornets enter this game on a nine-game ATS losing streak (depending on closing numbers) and are coming off a home upset loss to Grambling on Saturday. This sets up a prime bounce-back opportunity before they hit the road for consecutive games. Meanwhile, Southern has been rolling, winning 10 straight games, including an ATS victory over Alabama A&M on Saturday. With back-to-back home games on deck after this contest, the Jaguars could be caught looking ahead.

Take Alabama State. Projected score: Alabama State 70, Southern 68.

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Sunday.

Arizona State enters this matchup off a tough 0-2 homestand, suffering losses to Arizona and Kansas State. While those results were disappointing, both opponents presented significant challenges, and I expect the Sun Devils to respond in a more favorable matchup against Oklahoma State. Not only does Arizona State hold the slightly better overall record, but it has also faced a much tougher schedule to this point. That battle-tested experience should serve them well as they hit the road, looking to get back on track against an inconsistent Cowboys squad.

Oklahoma State has put together consecutive ATS victories but remains just 3-8 SU over its last 11 games. The Cowboys fell to Houston in their most recent contest, and while they've shown flashes of improved play, they’ve been a tough team to trust, going just 5-9 ATS in their last 14 outings. Their struggles against quality competition suggest they could have a difficult time extending their ATS success against an Arizona State team that should be eager to bounce back after its loss to Kansas State.

With Arizona State's defensive intensity and ability to push the tempo, I like the Sun Devils to keep this one competitive throughout and potentially pull off the outright upset.

Take Arizona State. Projected score: Arizona State 70, Oklahoma State 68.

Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over UCSB at 10 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Warriors as they look to rebound from an 'upset' loss at Cal Poly on Thursday. That setback came on the heels of a blowout win over Cal State-Fullerton, suggesting a bit of a letdown may have been in play. Despite the loss, Hawaii has faced a tougher schedule than UCSB this season, and their overall records remain fairly close, with the Gauchos holding only a slight edge.

UCSB enters this matchup riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak, including a road victory over Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday. However, this game should be tightly contested, with Hawaii likely to push the Gauchos to the wire.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: UCSB 72, Hawaii 71.

SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas A&M plus the points over Missouri at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams share identical overall records, Texas A&M has faced the far tougher schedule. The Aggies enter this contest off consecutive ATS losses, but they actually won both of those games outright. Meanwhile, Missouri has strung together three straight ATS victories, including a competitive showing in a loss at Tennessee on Wednesday.

With the Aggies' defensive intensity and ability to grind out wins, I expect them to challenge for the outright victory in this one.

Take Texas A&M. Projected score: Texas A&M 74, Missouri 72.

Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Dallas at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

The Rockets have hit a rough patch, dropping five straight games, including back-to-back ATS losses. However, despite their current struggles, they remain a solid road team with a 17-11 SU and ATS record away from home. I expect them to show up here, motivated to snap their skid against a familiar division foe.

Dallas has responded well in the wake of the Luka Doncic trade, picking up consecutive ATS wins, including an impressive road victory in Boston on Thursday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot against a Houston squad that already proved it can win on this floor, having defeated the Mavs in Dallas on Halloween Night.

Look for the Rockets to keep this one tight.

Take Houston. Projected score: Houston 113, Dallas 110.

Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Seton Hall plus the points over Georgetown at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Seton Hall has endured a difficult season, sitting at just 6-17 overall while riding an eight-game losing streak, including five ATS defeats in its last six contests. However, this is a prime opportunity for the Pirates to get back on track against a similarly struggling Georgetown squad.

The Hoyas may have covered the spread in their last game against Xavier, but they still came up short in the win column. Overall, Georgetown is just 2-7 SU over its last nine games and has covered the spread only three times in its last eight outings. With both teams struggling, I expect Seton Hall to keep this game competitive and stay inside the number.

Take Seton Hall. Projected score: Georgetown 72, Seton Hall 69.

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll call for a high-scoring affair as the Pacers look to bounce back from a shocking blowout loss in Portland, while the Clippers aim to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the rival Lakers on Tuesday.

Despite the 'under' cashing in Indiana's last two games, the Pacers continue to push the tempo, allowing four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to attempt at least 89 field goals. They've also surrendered 40+ made field goals in three of their last four contests.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled defensively, allowing four consecutive opponents to hit 42 or more shots from the field. Indiana’s offense should benefit in this spot after seeing its streak of six straight games making 43+ field goals halted against Portland in a tough back-to-back situation.

Expect plenty of scoring in this non-conference matchup.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Indiana 121, Los Angeles 118.

NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Long Island plus the points over Wagner at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll back Long Island as it looks to snap its four-game SU and ATS losing streak on the road against conference rival Wagner. While Wagner is coming off a double-digit win and cover against Le Moyne, it's worth noting that the Seahawks have faced one of the weakest schedules in the country this season and have still only managed a 12-10 SU record.

Long Island, meanwhile, is in desperate need of a bounce-back effort following an 'upset' road loss against Chicago State on Saturday. Before its current slide, LIU had reeled off six straight wins SU and seven in a row ATS, proving it’s capable of a strong showing. This is a key opportunity for the Sharks to salvage something from their two-game road trip before returning home for a pair of winnable matchups.

Meanwhile, Wagner could be caught looking ahead to the start of a two-game road swing on Saturday at Fairleigh Dickinson.

Take Long Island. Projected score: Long Island 69, Wagner 65.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm ET on Wednesday.

Despite their recent struggles, I like the way this game sets up for the Magic. They've dropped four straight games both SU and ATS, but they've had a day off following a tough battle with the Warriors on Monday. With a looming back-to-back in Denver on Thursday, expect them to give everything they have in this spot.

Sacramento snapped a two-game skid with an 'upset' victory over Minnesota on Monday but has been inconsistent, going just 2-4 SU over its last six games and 2-5 ATS over its last seven. The Kings have also failed to post back-to-back ATS victories since mid-January, highlighting their inconsistency.

I look for Orlando to put together a complete effort and potentially steal this one outright.

Take Orlando. Projected score: Orlando 112, Sacramento 109.

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Wyoming at 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

I'll back the Aggies as they look to bounce back from Saturday's home loss against New Mexico. That defeat snapped a three-game winning streak and marked just their third loss in their last 11 games. Utah State has performed at a much higher level than Wyoming this season, posting a 19-3 SU record compared to the Cowboys' 11-11 mark, despite both teams facing similar strength of schedules.

Wyoming is coming off a loss at San Diego State but has managed back-to-back ATS wins. That said, the Cowboys are still just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and will have a tough time keeping pace with an Aggies squad eager to respond after a rare home defeat. Expect Utah State to assert itself and pull away for a convincing win.

Take Utah State. Projected score: Utah State 80, Wyoming 65.

Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm ET on Monday.

The Wizards managed a surprising upset win in Minnesota on Saturday, snapping a brutal losing streak that dated back to January 1st. However, winning isn't really in their best interest at this point, as they remain in full-on tank mode for a high draft pick. I expect them to revert to their losing ways on Monday as they head to Charlotte.

The Hornets are mired in a four-game losing streak but have shown signs of life, covering the spread in consecutive games. Despite dropping both previous meetings with Washington this season—both coming in a short span back in December—Charlotte is in a good position to respond at home here. Given their recent ATS performances and the Wizards' general lack of competitiveness, I'll lay the points with the Hornets.

Take Charlotte. Projected score: Charlotte 116, Washington 105.

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on USC plus the points over Michigan State at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Michigan State has been rolling with 13 consecutive victories and an 18-2 overall record, but I believe this is a tricky spot for the Spartans. They’ve also covered in back-to-back games, which makes this a potential letdown situation. USC, meanwhile, comes off an 82-76 loss to rival UCLA but has consistently bounced back well, having not lost consecutive games since early January.

While the Trojans have the inferior overall record, they’ve navigated a more challenging schedule, and their battle-tested nature should serve them well here. Look for USC to put up a strong fight and keep this one close throughout.

Take USC. Projected score: Michigan State 74, USC 73.

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Missouri at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

Mississippi State has struggled to cover the spread lately, dropping six straight ATS decisions, but this matchup presents a prime opportunity to turn things around. The Bulldogs are coming off a narrow 88-84 home loss to Alabama in a game where they were highly competitive against one of the conference’s top teams. That performance suggests they are capable of bouncing back strong, especially against a Missouri squad that has been inconsistent this season.

Missouri enters this contest fresh off a home win over Ole Miss last Saturday, but it has faced a softer schedule compared to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been tested against higher-caliber opponents, which should help them control this matchup on both ends of the floor. Look for Mississippi State to break its ATS slump and pick up a convincing victory.

Take Mississippi State. Projected score: Mississippi State 76, Missouri 64.