Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota OVER 61 | 12-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in this Bowl matchup on Tuesday evening. We've seen a bit of an evolution of the Washington State program in recent years, going from perennial Pac-10/12 doormat to contender, and doing it on the strength of an improved defense. This year didn't exactly play out that way as the Cougars stumbled in their final two games, getting blasted by Colorado and Washington offenses. I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars do much to keep the Golden Gophers offense at bay on Tuesday, but I am confident that the Washington State offense can turn in a strong performance. Minnesota put forth a mixed bag in terms of its defense over the course of the regular season but I believe the Gophers will be vulnerable against an unfamiliar Cougars attack. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State OVER 45 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Vanderbilt at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in this matchup. The Wolfpack seemed to hit a high note in their 10-3 home win over Notre Dame in early October. From there it was a struggle, even though they did win two of their final three regular season games, including a big victory over rival North Carolina. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight games but I expect a different story to unfold here. Vandy's final two regular season games sailed 'over' the total. The Commodores had a nice stretch of defensive football in October but outside of that, had a tough time keeping the opposition in check. The most recent meeting between these two schools resulted in a 38-24 Vandy win back in 2012. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Middle Tennessee State at 8 pm et on Saturday. For years, the 'over' seemed to be a sure thing in the Hawaii Bowl. Not so much recently, largely due to the fact that the Rainbow Warriors have fallen off considerably. I do believe we're in for a shootout this year, however. Middle Tennessee State has quietly produced one of the nation's best running attacks this season. Meanwhile, Hawaii can't stop the run. It would be a recipe for a disaster were it not for the fact that the Warriors can put points on the board themselves. Hawaii has a strong aerial attack while the Blue Raiders have had a difficult time slowing opposing passing games this season. The Warriors know they can hang in this matchup and should put forth an aggressive gameplan. All things considered, I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming UNDER 57 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Wyoming at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night. BYU is an excellent defensive team that played some of its best football down the stretch during the regular season, allowing a grand total of 29 points over its final four contests. Note that the 'under' cashed in six of their last seven games. Wyoming hunt tough in the Mountain West Conference championship game, ultimately falling by a 27-24 score. That game stayed 'under' the total after the Cowboys previous four contests went 'over'. I simply don't have enough confidence in a BYU offense that will be without QB Taysom Hill to consistently put points on the board against a Wyoming defense that is better than it showed down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 80 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with a very high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. Both the Memphis and Western Kentucky offenses really hit their stride down the stretch during the regular season. I don't believe the extended layoff will have any adverse effects on either offense. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Tigers defense, which allows five yards per rush on the season. The Hilltoppers boast one of the best ground attacks in college football, averaging north of five yards per carry. On the flip side, don't count on the Hilltoppers getting many stops against a Memphis offense that can beat you both through the air and on the ground. The Tigers faced the tougher schedule over the course of the regular season and will have more speed than what Western Kentucky is accustomed to seeing. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs but despite the lack of familiarity I don't think we'll see much of a feeling-out process. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Miss and UL-Lafayette at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at the Superdome on Saturday night. I don't anticipate either offense being slowed on the fast track in this one. Southern Miss didn't exactly live up to expectations this season but can make amends with a strong performance here. There's little reason to expect the Ragin' Cajuns to slow the Eagles offense. UL-Lafayette will once again lean heavily on its ground game but should find some success against a vulnerable Southern Miss defense that allows nearly five yards per rush on the campaign. Both teams saw the 'under' cash in their last two regular season games, which helps to keep this total in check. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 47 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. We've certainly cashed our share of 'under' tickets in this series over the years. We're obviously talking about an overwhelming 'under' trend. I'm still not sure the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment when it comes to this total. It's the lowest total we've seen since 2009, but I believe it will still prove too high. Neither team has a quarterback that has a real nose for the end zone and I believe that sets us up for another low-scoring affair. Yes, Navy has been involved in plenty of shootouts this season but we cashed a big ticket with the 'under' in the Middies blowout loss to Temple last week, and I can't help but think they'll have a tough time getting rolling again here. Army is coming off a 60-point outburst but that came at the expense of an FCS squad, Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights had topped out at 21 points over their last four contests. Navy has certainly brought out Army's 'A' game in recent years, with the Black Knights often saving their best for last. Of course, Army hasn't been able to get over the hump with a victory and that likely won't change here in 2016. Expect a hard-fought affair though. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in the AAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Simply put, I believe Temple can slow the high-powered Navy offense. The oddsmakers would seem to be on board with that thinking as well, installing the Midshipmen as a very small favorite in this one. Temple has reeled off 11 straight ATS wins, and has given up just 10 points over its last three contests. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the Owls last four games. Navy faced a tough schedule this season but came away relatively unscathed, going 9-2 SU. The Middies have posted an 8-3 o/u mark, but again, that has a lot to do with the tough schedule they faced. I see this as a manageable matchup for the Navy defense. The last time these two teams met two years ago they combined to score 55 points, staying just 'under' the posted total. I'm calling for a similar outcome on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these teams. We've made money supporting both this season, but here I'll focus on the total. I'm not convinced the Buffaloes will be able to get a lot done offensively in this matchup. There were times during the regular season when it was a real struggle for Colorado to break through offensively against strong opposition. While the Huskies have been a big of an offensive juggernaut this season, they should face plenty of resistance here. The Buffaloes are built on the strength of their defense, and they do match up reasonably well in that regard. Keep in mind, the 'under' went 2-0-1 in the Huskies final three regular season contests. The last time these two teams met in 2014 they combined to score 61 points but we're talking about two very different squads here in 2016. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-16 | UCLA v. California UNDER 71 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Cal at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Berkeley on Saturday evening. UCLA is coming off a beatdown at the hands of rival USC last week, falling by a 36-14 score. I do expect the Bruins to turn in a stronger defensive showing here, even against another explosive offense in Cal. While most will assume UCLA will rip through the Bears defense, this is a Bruins offense that has been fairly inconsistent this season. Cal's offense has actually regressed down the stretch this season. The Bears have been involved in so many track meets, I simply feel that they're running out of gas as they limp to the finish line. Note that we haven't seen a matchup in this series go over the 70-point plateau since 2009. Over the last six meetings, the 'under' has gone 5-1. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Black Friday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Tucson on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Arizona's last game, a 42-17 loss at Oregon State last week. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Arizona State hasn't tasted victory since October 8th. The Sun Devils offense has continued to perform at a fairly high level, however, despite a poor showing last week against a powerful Washington squad. With QB Manny Wilkins getting back to full strength there's reason to believe they'll shred the Arizona defense on Friday night. The Wildcats have dealt with injury issues of their own on offense this season. But Solomon and Dawkins are both healthy under center now. They'll be facing a Sun Devils defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these in-state rivals totaled 89 points. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-16 | Arizona v. Oregon State OVER 61 | 17-42 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oregon State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Corvallis on Saturday night. After being held to just 31 points over a span of three games, Arizona put up 24 against a quality Colorado defense, on the road no less, albeit in a blowout loss last Saturday. I expect to see progression from the Wildcats offense here against the Beavers. Meanwhile, Oregon State also put up 24 points in a losing effort on the road against UCLA. The Beavers have dropped five games in a row, although it's worth mentioning that they did score 31 points in their most recent home game, against a tough Washington State squad. We saw a closing total of 66.5 points in this matchup last year. While both offenses may have taken a step back, I believe both are in line for big performances on Saturday night. Expect a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston UNDER 69 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses can score in bunches, I feel that this total will prove too high on Thursday night. There's not much separating these two teams in terms of overall records, but I don't think there's any question, Louisville is the superior team from top to bottom. With that being said, Houston managed to upset Louisville, on the road no less, last season and will bring plenty of confidence to the table. The thing is, I believe the Cougars know that they're not going to win a shootout against the Cardinals - not this year anyway. They'll need to extend some drives in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Lamar Jackson and the explosive Cards offense. Louisville actually did a nice job containing Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. in last year's matchup - even if it was all for not in a losing effort. That will obviously be the key to victory here on Thursday night. The blueprint has been laid out for slowing down Ward, and I'm confident we'll see the Cardinals follow it. Last year's meeting went 'over' the posted total, but we're dealing with a much higher number this time around. Too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-16 | California v. Washington State UNDER 83.5 | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
CFB Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'under' between California and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Washington State's blowout win over Arizona last week but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' this time around. Cal is coming off an absolute beatdown at the hands of Washington last week and certainly hasn't performed up to standards defensively of late. After four consecutive terrible showings on defense, I do expect the Bears to at least get a few stops and play with some pride on Saturday night in Pullman. Note that Cal held Washington State to 28 points in last year's meeting. I have more respect for the Cougars defense than most. They absolutely manhandled Arizona last Saturday and have actually done a pretty good job on the defensive side of the ball, particularly here at home, after a rocky start to the season. While Cal does boast an explosive offense, I'm confident we'll see the Cougars do a fairly good job of keeping that unit in check. The 'over' has gone 3-1 in Cal's last four games overall and 3-1 in Wazzou's last three. That has certainly been factored into this total when you consider last year's total closed at 73.5 and the year previous we saw a 67.5. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Oregon at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over in Stanford's most recent game - a double-digit win over Oregon State last Saturday. A goal-line stand in the final minutes was all that kept that one from going 'over' (and Stanford from covering the spread). We came out on the wrong end of that one, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. The Cardinal at least made some positive strides offensively last week. In fact, Stanford has scored 60 points over its last two games which is major progress considering how it had performed earlier in the campaign. I'm confident we'll see Stanford get loose offensively against a weak Oregon defense that hasn't really slowed anyone down this season. The Ducks have allowed at least 35 points in all six Pac-12 games to date. The good news for Oregon is that it has enjoyed some offensive success this season and I'm not convinced Stanford is quite as good defensively as it has showed in recent weeks. Slowing the Ducks down on this field will be a challenge for the Cardinal, noting that Oregon has scored 53, 44, 38, 21 and 54 points at home this season. Last year's meeting between these two teams barely crept 'over' the total but we were dealing with a higher posted total on that occasion. This number remains in a reasonable range thanks to Stanford's offensive struggles more than anything else. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
ACC Super Total. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After posting a shutout against Syracuse last Saturday some are anticipating a defensive letdown from Clemson in this matchup, at least based on the relatively high total we're dealing with. However, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers manhandle the Panthers in this one. Pittsburgh put up 28 points in last week's blowout loss at Miami, but it was fortunate to get to that number, thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return. The Panthers offense actually struggled with QB Nathan Peterman completing only 17-of-35 passes and RB James Conner gaining only 40 yards on 12 carries. It's hard to envision the Panthers bouncing back in this tough matchup. I feel that the Panthers are running out of gas after being involved in so many wild, high-scoring affairs early in the season. Yes, they're still in good position to reach a Bowl game but back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Miami have struck a blow. Pitt won't be interested in getting involved in another shootout here - it simply doesn't have the the type of defense that could possibly get enough stops down the stretch to prevail. It desperately needs to tighten things up on that side of the football or it is going to get its doors blown off again here. I'm confident we'll see the Clemson defense do enough, and for the offense to take its foot off the gas enough down the stretch to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |