My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday August 6th.

I'm going to jump on this play early as I like the way it sets up with the Cardinals currently priced as a small underdog. Arizona has the 'nobody believes in us' mentality entering this season with most picking it to finish last in the NFC or even the league. The Cardinals have a new head coach in Mike LaFleur and I actually like the hire and the fact that expectations are low across the board. Kyler Murray is gone and the quarterback room leaves a lot to be desired to be sure. I do think there's going to be a healthy competition at the position, even though Jacoby Brissett is essentially the incumbent and the starting role is most likely his. Last season, the Cards defense in particular suffered from a number of key injuries that held it back. I do like their depth on that side of the football and think they can be a sneaky-good preseason bet this year. While Cards fans aren't known for travelling well, they should have a presence here with Larry Fitzgerald being inducted into the Hall of Fame. The Panthers are hoping to continue to progress after reaching the postseason and putting a scare into the Rams on Wild Card Weekend. Their sights are set on the regular season with the preseason holding little importance other than settling starting jobs and staying healthy. It's always important to tread lightly in the preseason but I do like the Cards chances of taking this one. Take Arizona (8*).

Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Seattle at 6:30 pm et on Sunday February 8th.

We won easily with the favored Eagles in last year's Super Bowl but I'm taking a contrarian approach and backing the underdog Patriots in this year's edition. All casual bettors are going to hear leading up to this game is how the Pats don't stand a chance after essentially being gift-wrapped an AFC Championship with not only an easy schedule but the Broncos losing QB Bo Nix. I absolutely love the fact that New England enters this game with a 'nobody believes in us' attitude and that starts from ownership right on down through management, the coaching staff and the players. This is without a doubt a team with a giant chip on its shoulder, not to mention one playing with 'house money' well ahead of schedule in Mike Vrabel's first year at the helm. All the credit in the world to the Seahawks - we went against them in their two playoff victories. However, here we find Seattle going from laying less than a field goal at home against a familiar divisional opponent in the Rams to laying almost a handful of points on a neutral field against an upstart Pats squad. I do think there are areas where New England is well-suited to attack Seattle. The Seahawks benefited from facing a Rams offense led by statue-esque QB Matthew Stafford but now face a true dual-threat in Drake Maye. I also don't think the Pats defense gets enough credit for the way it has quite simply locked down the opposition down the stretch and in the postseason. New England is well-positioned to take away the Seahawks running game and force QB Sam Darnold to win this game. Maybe he does it - he's certainly proved me wrong before - but I feel the Seahawks are laying too many points. Take New England (10*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Seattle at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams have now dropped the cash in consecutive games and admittedly run into a buzz-saw of sorts in the red hot Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle has won eight straight games but as we know and saw with the Texans last week, streaks like that are meant to be broken. The Seahawks haven't really been challenged since facing these same Rams in a 38-37 overtime thriller back on December 18th. Their defense has fuelled the charge and last week's game against San Francisco essentially turned on a game-opening kickoff return for a touchdown from Rashid Shaheed. I certainly don't expect the Rams to come out as shaky as the 49ers did last week. Los Angeles took Chicago's best punch last Sunday but managed to win 20-17 in overtime. Nothing has come easy for the Rams in these playoffs. I do think, however, that they have a higher ceiling in this game offensively. The Seahawks are unlikely to elevate QB Sam Darnold from a 'game manager' role after he threw six interceptions in two regular season meetings with Los Angeles. While Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker excelled after Zach Charbonnet went down to injury last week, I don't think Charbonnet's absence can be understated. He's not only a tough runner and has emerged as a big part of Seattle's offense this season but he's a tremendous pass blocker and will certainly be missed against the Rams pass rush here. Also on the injury front, the Rams got RG Kevin Dotson back last week and his presence paid immediate dividends. While Seattle owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Los Angeles has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll count on the Rams to avoid a third straight ATS defeat on Sunday, noting they're in uncharted territory in that regard with their two-game ATS slide marking their longest of the campaign to date. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over New England at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We would have been on the Patriots were it not for the injury to Broncos QB Bo Nix as they would have been catching points in this matchup in Denver on Sunday. Instead, we'll go the other way and grab all the points we can get with the Broncos as they look to overcome the Nix injury and head to the Super Bowl. I've been saying it all season and it bears repeating here; this edition of the Broncos hasn't met a close game it doesn't like. With that in mind, Denver has seen the underdog go 13-5 ATS in its 18 games to date. Of those 18 contests, 10 were decided by four points or less. The Patriots are riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak but we have a catalyst for change at play here as they head on the road for the first time since December 28th. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

Indiana will attempt to do the unthinkable and wrap up an undefeated season on Monday. We'll grab the points with the Hurricanes as they've played with a giant chip on their shoulder throughout these College Football Playoffs and while not owning the same pristine overall record, have faced a more difficult schedule than the Hoosiers by most metrics. It's easy to forget that Indiana has been challenged at times this season, including a five-point win at Iowa, a three-point victory at Penn State, and another three-point victory in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. The Hoosiers have laid waste to Alabama and Oregon in the CFP but I do think the Canes can present a more difficult challenge in what amounts to a home game for them at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Saturday.

It's going to be up to the 49ers to make the necessary adjustments after they were trounced 13-3 in a truly one-sided affair against Seattle just two weeks ago. San Francisco is still dealing with plenty of key injuries with TE George Kittle the latest big name to be sidelined. I liked what I saw from the Niners in Philadelphia on Sunday, however. To me, it looked like they found something offensively and the fact that they were able to pull the upset without getting anything at all from their ground game was encouraging to be sure. Defensively, despite all of the injuries, this is a unit that has developed an identity under coordinator Robert Saleh. All of the talk leading up to last week's game surrounded the Eagles vaunted defense but that unit was upstaged by the Niners rag-tag group. Seahawks bettors have to be a little nervous about laying a touchdown with a team led by QB Sam Darnold, who is suddenly dealing with an injury ahead of Saturday's contest. Darnold should be good to go but after turning in a rare clean performance against the Niners two weeks ago, I wonder whether he gets blindsided by a revamped defensive gameplan on Saturday. These primetime games have had the tendency to go down to the wire with absolutely wild finishes. I think there's a good chance we'll see a similar story unfold in Seattle on Saturday. Take San Francisco (8*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think Buffalo could have hoped for a better Divisional Round matchup than this. Hear me out. The Bills crushed the Broncos 31-7 in last year's playoffs, albeit at home. Denver is a better team this year and Buffalo has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the football. With that being said, I think all of the pressure is on the Broncos in this matchup as they had a phenomenal regular season to earn the number one seed and get this game at home. I don't have a ton of faith in Denver to deliver, however. QB Bo Nix came up big at times but also wilted under the pressure at others. The way to beat the Bills is by running the football but the Broncos don't exactly have an elite stable of running backs to lean on. I don't like the fact that Denver closed out the regular season with consecutive 'layups' against a Chiefs team led by QB Chris Oladokun and a Chargers squad quarterbacked by Trey Lance. The prospect of facing QB Josh Allen should certainly worry Broncos supporters here. Of note, Denver parlayed one of the easiest schedules in the league to a one-seed. We successfully faded the Broncos in their most recent loss - at home against the Jaguars on December 21st - and we'll do so again here. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the fact that we're getting north of a field goal with the Chargers in this Wild Card matchup on Sunday night. While the Patriots were expected to take a step forward this season, I don't think many expected them to be hosting a playoff game. I do think it's worth noting that New England has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season. This is a tougher matchup for the Pats than it appears at first glance in my opinion. The Chargers have their issues. They've had a tough time getting their ground game going and have an injury-ravaged offensive line that struggles to keep QB Justin Herbert upright. The good news is, the Pats don't have a fierce pass rush. I think Herbert can find some success in this contest, using his underrated wideouts to his advantage. Defensively, Los Angeles sets up well to defend what New England does best and that's throw the football down the field with standout sophomore QB Drake Maye. The Chargers have played lock-down pass defense for much of the season and they'll lean heavily on their back-end to ultimately keep this game within arm's reach on Sunday night. This is a game that I envision going down to the wire so we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Chargers. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles have long been a favorite of ours to be on in the postseason and this year sets up no different with a lot of bettors and casual onlookers down on them following an up-and-down regular season. Philadelphia enters the playoffs as healthy as it's been in some time with Lane Johnson slated to return to anchor the offensive line and it draws a favorable Wild Card matchup against the undermanned 49ers. It's been a struggle for San Francisco to patch together a defense with so many key injuries suffered over the course of the season. I think the most recent one, to LB Tatum Bethune, is far more critical than most realize. This sets up as a smash spot for an Eagles offense that hasn't always laid all of its cards out on the table this season. On the flip side, the Niners offense has dealt with key injuries down the stretch as well. All-world tackle Trent Williams might be able to give it a go but he's not 100% healthy. WR Ricky Pearsall, who has been one of QB Brock Purdy's favorite targets, is questionable to play as well. There's simply no matchup advantages to be found against an elite Eagles defense. For the Niners to stay in this game a lot of things will have to break right and I just don't see it happening on the road against an Eagles team that has proven it plays its best football in the postseason. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a 'revenge' game for the Rams after they dropped a 31-28 decision as double-digit favorites here in Carolina in late November. Nothing went right for Los Angeles in that contest as it lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the Panthers came up with some incredibly fortuitous plays on offense. Here, the Panthers best plan of attack is to shorten proceedings and desperately try to stay within arm's reach for four quarters. The problem is, Carolina's ground game has all but disappeared in recent weeks and I don't think QB Bryce Young can be relied upon to consistently move the chains with his arm or his legs against this Rams defense. Offensively, Los Angeles is healthier than it's been in weeks, even if it does have a concern on the offensive line with Kevin Dotson sidelined. I do think we'll see the Rams two-headed ground attack thrive while the Panthers secondary has a difficult time 'picking its poison' against the likes of Puka Nacua and a now-healthy DaVante Adams. Of note, the Rams four road wins (five if you count a victory over the Jaguars overseas) all came by at least two touchdowns. The straight-up winner has gone 15-1-1 ATS in the Rams 17 games this season. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Indiana clearly looks unstoppable at this point and that's certainly not lost on the majority of bettors entering this College Football Playoff semi-final clash on Friday. We won with Oregon in its victory over Texas Tech last round and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Ducks again in this 'revenge' spot on Friday. Indiana went into Autzen and delivered a double-digit victory over Oregon during the regular season. What better time for the Ducks to get their revenge but with a spot in the National Championship Game on the line? While Indiana owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Oregon has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Few are giving the Ducks much of a chance in this matchup with many already crowning the Hoosiers in what has been an incredible season for the program. I simply feel grabbing the points will be paramount in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Ole Miss has captured everyone's attention after it prevailed in an overtime thriller against mighty Georgia in the quarter-final round of College Football Playoffs. That was obviously a revenge-fuelled victory for the Rebels, who have looked like a team on a mission. We'll fade Ole Miss off that 'upset' win, however, as Miami has all the tools to ultimately pull away in this contest. The Hurricanes had to be pleased to see the Rebels advance as I think they do match up well here. Miami has reeled off six straight victories including three in a row ATS and flips to a favored role off back-to-back 'upset' wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State. Of note, while they own the slightly worse overall record, the Canes have faced the more difficult schedule compared to the Rebels this season by most metrics. I think Miami's defense and ground attack will ultimately be the difference in this intriguing clash of styles. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders on Sunday as they look to close what has been a disastrous campaign on a positive note at home against the division-rival Chiefs. Kansas City took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a score of 31-0 at Arrowhead Stadium back on October 19th. Of course, that was a much different looking Kansas City team than we'll see on Sunday. As bad as things have gone for the Raiders (they're mired in a 10-game losing streak and have won just two games all season), they've actually only suffered one ATS losing streak going all the way back to October 12th. That lasted three games from November 17th to 30th. They do come off an ATS defeat last week in an embarrassing 34-10 home loss against the Giants. The Chiefs 'emptied the tank' as much as they could given the personnel they had to work with in their Christmas Night loss to the Broncos. I'm not expecting as fierce of an effort here as they close out a disappointing season on the road. Note that Kansas City enters this contest on a five-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in seven of its last eight games. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Cowboys will be a popular side on Sunday after they took care of business in a similar spot on the road against a divisional foe in Washington on Christmas Day. Dallas is expected to play its starters despite this being a 'meaningless' affair to close out the season. QB Dak Prescott has some stat-padding to do as he looks to finish as the overall passing leader this season. In the grand scheme of things, I think that's being over-baked into the line. The Giants haven't rolled over down the stretch, losing by three points at home against a surging Minnesota team two weeks ago before routing the Raiders in Las Vegas last Sunday. Both teams are dealing with injuries and the good news for the Giants is they're unlikely to have to face the Cowboys top two running backs including Javonte Williams, who had a standout season. I'm anticipating a nip-and-tuck affair with New York ultimately taking this one down to the wire at the very least. Take New York (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think grabbing the points will be paramount in this game that will draw a lot of eyes in the early window of games on Sunday. New Orleans will be looking to avenge an earlier 24-10 home loss against Atlanta this season. The Saints couldn't be playing much better and while their offense figures to be limited without WR Chris Olave, I'm not about to write them off as their defense has quietly excelled down the stretch. The Falcons are in a pretty obvious letdown spot off Monday's 'upset' win over the Rams. Atlanta has certainly been playing well but I don't love the prospect of it laying points in a divisional 'revenge' game off that big outright underdog victory. The Saints know they're going to get a heavy dose of Falcons RB Bijan Robinson as he plays for a number of milestones and I'm certainly they'll be ready. Take New Orleans (10*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I can understand the logic behind support for the Seahawks as a road favorite in this spot. After all, we won with Seattle in last week's 27-10 rout of the Panthers in Carolina. I just can't get there with Sam Darnold and this Seahawks offense, however. The 49ers have reeled off six straight wins both SU and ATS and while the potential absence of all-world LT Trent Williams is concerning, I think Kyle Shanahan has just enough in his toolbox to orchestrate another successful gameplan in this matchup. Credit the Seahawks for their incredible run but I think we see a scenario play out where they struggle to run the football in this game and too much ends up placed on Sam Darnold's shoulders. That would be a similar scenario to what happened for Seattle in its most recent loss, way back on November 16th in Los Angeles, when key turnovers ended up being the difference in a 21-19 defeat. We know San Francisco can take care of the football, noting that it has turned it over once or less in eight of its last 10 contests. Expect another whip-smart game from the Niners as they improve to 2-0 against the Seahawks this season. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think asking the Buccaneers to win by margin right now is a lot. Tampa Bay has lost four games in a row SU and eight straight ATS with the lone victory coming by a field goal against the Cardinals back on November 30th. While the Panthers haven't exactly proven to be 'road warriors' they have posted notable road wins in Green Bay and Atlanta and perhaps more importantly they've been an excellent bounce-back team, avoiding consecutive losses since opening the season 0-2. Off a 27-10 rout at home against a good Seahawks team last Sunday (we won with Seattle in that game), I think we'll see them respond favorably here. The Bucs defense has already been down-trodden and now it's missing a key piece in Jamel Dean. That opens the door for the Panthers capable but inconsistent offense to turn in a good performance and ultimately wrap up the NFC South division. Take Carolina (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on SMU plus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday.

With very little separating these two teams in all aspects, we'll grab the points (you should still be able to find the Mustangs catching a point at the time of writing) in this Friday night matchup. You could argue that Arizona's five-game winning streak to close out the regular season, which culminated with a lopsided win over rival Arizona State, was more important than anything it will possibly accomplish in this post-New Year's Bowl game against SMU. This is the year the Wildcats defense really stepped up and thrived off of takeaways, but as we noted in yesterday's play on Oregon over Texas Tech, turnovers aren't really a predictable metric and they can swing the other way at any given time. SMU had high hopes entering the season but those were quickly dashed with early losses to Baylor and TCU. The Mustangs did close out the regular season by going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS over their final eight contests. Despite it being an up-and-down season, I did like the way the Mustangs rose to the occasion in big games, on the road against Clemson and at home against Miami in particular. This is a team that has proven the ability to all but snuff out opposing ground attacks and I think that can serve them well as they look to make Arizona one-dimensional in this game. Take SMU (10*).

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not sure that Georgia is getting the respect it deserves in the College Football Playoffs. You hear a lot about Indiana to be sure. You did hear a lot about Ohio State and now will hear plenty about Miami following its 'upset' win on Wednesday. I like the way Georgia is set up to advance as it draws Ole Miss on Thursday. The Bulldogs own an identical 12-1 record to that of the Rebels, but Georgia has faced the more difficult schedule, albeit not by much, by most metrics. The last time we saw the Rebels they laid waste to an overmatched Tulane team in the opening round of the CFP on December 20th. That marked Ole Miss' second straight ATS victory. Of note, it is still just 4-4 ATS over its last eight games after starting the season 4-1 ATS. The Bulldogs have charted a similar course lately, going 3-3 ATS over their last six games. They have proven to be a streaky team from an ATS perspective this season and I'm confident they can post a second straight ATS victory here as this line seems a little light. Note that Georgia took the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-35 score in Athens on October 18th. I think that's leading many to believe that we'll see another very competitive affair here but I'm not convinced the Rebels offense can generate as much this time around. We know Georgia will make the necessary defensive adjustments and it enters this contest having held its last four opponents to a combined 29 points. The Ole Miss offense has been humming but it also faced a schedule that was front-loaded. Its last four games have come against The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State and Tulane. Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on Alabama plus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Thursday.

As strange as it seems, Alabama has been able to play the 'no one believes in us' card during the College Football Playoffs. The Crimson Tide had their doubters against Oklahoma in the first round, certainly after they fell behind big early in that game played in Norman. However, Alabama rallied and ended up winning that one by margin and I think it can hang again as it steps up in class to take on undefeated Indiana on Thursday. The Hoosiers certainly appear to be on a collision course with the National Championship after 'upsetting' Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December. While Indiana does own the better overall record in this matchup, Alabama has faced the more difficult schedule. I simply don't believe as much separates these two teams as is being represented by the pointspread. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama (8*).

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll lay the points with Ohio State as it looks to bounce back from its first and only loss of the season to date and advance to the College Football Playoff semi-final round. Miami is of course coming off a first round 'upset' win over Texas A&M at College Station. The Aggies had every opportunity to win that game but their offense fizzled in big moments. The Hurricanes leaned on their defense and did just enough offensively to secure the victory but I'm not sure they'll be so fortunate here. These two teams actually faced identical strength of schedules this season by most metrics. But of course, Ohio State posted the slightly better record. The Buckeyes loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game certainly stung but that was always going to be a difficult turn-around after blowout out hated rival Michigan the previous Saturday. I certainly don't think Ryan Day's squad is hanging its head entering this showdown on Wednesday and I like the Buckeyes to ultimately win by margin. Take Ohio State (8*).

My selection is on USC minus the points over TCU at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Trojans on the fast track at the Alamodome on Tuesday. USC rolled to a 9-3 record during the regular season and did so despite a difficult Big Ten schedule. TCU's Big 12 slate was more forgiving but it only managed to go 8-4 overall including a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven contests. Both teams do enter this game off lopsided victories the last time they played with USC beating rival UCLA 29-10 and TCU hammering Cincinnati 45-23. Neither of these teams have run the ball particularly well this season. With that being said, I like the Trojans chances of stamping out the Horned Frogs passing game on Tuesday and ultimately pulling away for a win and cover. Take USC (8*).

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Louisiana Tech at 2 pm et on Tuesday.

Louisiana Tech started the season 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS but went 3-4 SU and ATS the rest of the way and faced one of the weakest schedules in all of college football. Coastal Carolina on the other hand got off to a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS start but wrapped up the regular season with three straight losses both SU and ATS. The Chanticleers faced a considerably more difficult schedule than the Bulldogs. So here we're catching a ton of points with Coastal Carolina and of course opt-outs and injuries play a role in that. With that being said, I think the Chanticleers show up and ultimately give the Bulldogs a run in this Independence Bowl matchup on Tuesday. Take Coastal Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'm not convinced there's as much separating these two teams as indicated by the pointspread on Monday night. Los Angeles is coming off a heart-breaking loss in Seattle a week ago Thursday and I get the feeling it might have a difficult time getting up for this non-division affair with its hopes of winning the NFC West dwindling. That's not to say the Rams won't win this game but I think they'll be in tough trying to win by margin. The Falcons are playing well even if their offense did thrive against subpar opposition in their last two games. I like the fact that they're relatively fresh with this being only their third game since December 11th. I do think a lot will be pinned on the Atlanta defense in this game as Kirk Cousins figures to be under duress for much of the night on offense. The Falcons have been stout against the run in recent weeks and won't have to deal with red zone magnet Davante Adams in this game giving them a puncher's chance. This is also another green-light spot for Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson as he looks to continue to pad his stats during a tremendous campaign. Look for the Falcons to keep the Rams within arm's reach. Take Atlanta (8*).

My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Appalachian State at 2 pm et on Monday.

I'm seeing a lot of support for Appalachian State leading up to this game but the money has obviously been going in support of Georgia Southern given the line move. I'm not sure the Mountaineers have any business being in this game let alone catching just single-digits. Georgia Southern owns the better overall record this season and has faced the more difficult schedule. Appalachian State managed to stay competitive over its last two games (winning one of them in 'upset' fashion over Marshall) only thanks to winning the turnover battle by a 5-1 margin over that stretch. I think there's a class difference in this contest that isn't being properly reflected by the line. Take Georgia Southern (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Maybe Josh Allen carries the Bills on his back and extends their four-game winning streak on Sunday but I'm willing to pay to see it. Philadelphia was written off by a lot of bettors weeks ago but they've quietly turned things around with consecutive lopsided victories over the Raiders and Commanders. While I realize the Eagles recent strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired, I do like the way they match up on the road against the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo's defense has fallen off a cliff lately, particularly against the run. That should be music to the ears of Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley. In fact, I would give the Eagles the edge in virtually every aspect of this game with the exception being the quarterback position. The wrong team is favored with a little too much weight being placed on Buffalo's home field advantage in my opinion. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a tough matchup for the upstart Panthers as they draw a rested Seahawks team having not played since a week ago Thursday, when they outlasted the Rams in an overtime thriller. Seattle's offense is set up favorably to ultimately salt this game away as it should be able to run the ball at will against the Panthers weak run game defense. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense is truly elite and matches up well in all areas against the Panthers inconsistent offense. While this line may look a little heavy at first glance, I think it's right where it should be and I'm confident Seattle can pull away for the cover. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on LSU plus the points over Houston at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

This season certainly didn't go as planned for LSU. It got off to a 4-0 start but it was mostly downhill from there as it went on to lose five of its final eight games and now here it is in a less-than-appealing Texas Bowl between Christmas and New Year's. With that being said, I like the way the Tigers match up in this contest. While Houston owns the better overall record, LSU faced the much tougher schedule by most metrics. We saw the Tigers toughen up defensively down the stretch, holding their final four opponents to 22 points or less. Houston thrived thanks to an explosive offense over the course of the season, scoring 30+ points in seven of 12 games. I don't think this game will be played in that type of high-scoring environment, however, with the total set in the low-40's. The Cougars closed out the regular season with a big 'upset' win on the road against Baylor and I think they have a difficult time following it up a month later. Take LSU (8*).

Bowl Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Fresno State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Most might be quick to dismiss Miami-Ohio as a 6-6 MAC team going up against 8-4 Fresno State in Arizona on Saturday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Redhawks as I think they can put the Bulldogs on 'upset' alert in this one. Miami-Ohio may be 6-6 on the campaign but it has faced a considerably more difficult schedule than Fresno State by most metrics. The highlight for the Bulldogs was a 30-7 road win over eventual Mountain West Conference champion Boise State in early November. They did close out the regular season on a high note with three wins in their final four games including a blowout win over San Jose State in their regular season finale. Meanwhile, the Redhawks left a sour taste in their backers mouhts with a 23-13 'upset' loss against Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game earlier this month. Sure to be in a foul mood off that defeat, I like Miami-Ohio's chances of at least taking this one down to the wire on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams come in red hot and only one game separates them in the AFC standings (the Chargers hold the edge). To put it bluntly, I have more faith in the Texans defense to step up in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. Houston got a scare from the Raiders at home on Sunday, snapping its four-game ATS winning streak in the process. We'll back the Texans here, noting they haven't dropped the cash in consecutive games since opening the season with three straight ATS losses (they're 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games). The Chargers are 11-4 but they've feasted on one of the weaker schedules in the league. Like the Texans, they're in uncharted territory riding a season-high winning streak but the different is, they're laying points in this spot. We'll grab any points we can get with underdog Houston here. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over East Carolina at 11 am et on Saturday.

I can understand the temptation to grab the generous helping of points with East Carolina in this Bowl matchup. The two teams own identical 8-4 records after all and come off much different results with Pittsburgh getting crushed 38-7 by Miami and East Carolina rolling to a 42-3 victory over Florida Atlantic in the two teams' respective regular season finales. With that being said, Pitt has obviously faced the much more difficult schedule this season and I think it matches up well with a Pirates squad that beat the teams it should but didn't always rise to the occasion when stepping up in class this season. The common line of thinking is that the Panthers will be disinterested in an appearance in the Military Bowl but I think this is a proud program that shows up for this contest and ultimately wins by margin. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Florida International at 8 pm et on Friday.

Florida International played its way into this game late in the season, reeling off four straight wins both SU and ATS to close out the regular campaign. However, noting stops momentum like being idle for a month and that's the case for the Panthers here. UTSA won't have to travel far for this game in Frisco, Texas. While the Roadrunners own a slightly inferior overall record compared to the Panthers this season, they have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. UTSA's home field advantage has been incredibly pronounced over the years - particularly in conference play - but playing in Dallas should be comfortable. We'll lay the points, noting that the SU winner has gone 11-1 ATS in FIU's 12 games this season and I like the Roadrunners chances of prevailing. Take UTSA (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New Mexico at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

New Mexico is a nice story as it ends its long Bowl drought with an appearance in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field on Friday. I like Minnesota's chances of ending the Lobos six-game winning streak here, however, and dashing their hopes of a triumphant return to the Bowl picture. While New Mexico does own two more wins than Minnesota this season, the Golden Gophers have faced the far more difficult schedule. It's also worth noting that the Lobos lived off of takeaways down the stretch, amassing 11 over their final four regular season games. The Golden Gophers have done an incredible job of taking care of the football this season, committing multiple turnovers in only two of 12 games and turning it over a grand total of four times over their last nine games. Minnesota isn't as run-oriented as we've been accustomed to seeing over the years and I think that gives it a leg up in this particular matchup. The Lobos have proven stout against the run this season but can be beat through the air with relative consistency. Take Minnesota (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors might be to grab the boatload of points with the Chiefs at home on Christmas Night. Kansas City is coming off an embarrassing but somewhat expected loss at Tennessee on Sunday. Of course, the Chiefs season is over for all intents and purposes. With nothing to play for we've seen a mass exodus to the injured list. Chris Oladokun will start this game behind a makeshift offensive line and he won't have top target Rashee Rice at his disposal. The playoff-bound Broncos figure to be in a foul mood after Sunday's convincing loss at home against the red hot Jaguars. We won with Jacksonville in that game but I'm confident we'll see Sean Payton's squad bounce back with a statement win by margin here. Were Denver not coming off a loss it would be easy to overlook Kansas City but that's not the situation it is in. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Ohio plus the points over UNLV at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I don't think there's enough to warrant a touchdown separating these two teams in terms of the pointspread on Tuesday. UNLV had an up-and-down season to be sure, culminating with a 17-point loss in the Mountain West Championship Game against Boise State. It was a similar story for Ohio, although it didn't manage to reach the MAC Championship Game thanks to a couple of key conference defeats. The Bobcats did end the regular season on a high note with consecutive wins but actually enter this Bowl matchup on the heels of three straight ATS defeats. While these two teams obviously play on opposite sides of the country, they faced virtually identical strength of schedules this season by most metrics. In a game that could very well go down to the wire, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Bobcats. Take Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over Western Kentucky at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Bettors don't seem to be taking a confident stake in either side of this New Orleans Bowl matchup on Tuesday. Perhaps rightfully so as both teams enter the game on multi-game losing streaks. Western Kentucky has proven to be the better bet overall this season but it undoubtedly had loftier goals than a New Orleans Bowl appearance (it last played in this game in 2022). For Southern Miss, this will be its first Bowl appearance since 2022. The Golden Eagles started strong this season with seven wins in their first nine games but lost three in a row to close out the regular season with an admittedly tough stretch that included games against Texas State, South Alabama and Troy. With little to choose between these teams, we'll back Southern Miss as an unpopular underdog. Take Southern Miss (8*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Colts were able to stay competitive last Sunday in Seattle by employing 44-year old QB Philip Rivers in an obvious 'game manager' role and I think there's a similar path to keeping this game close on Monday night. While Rivers' presence is startling to be sure, it's not as the Colts are devoid of talent around him. This game should be all about moving the sticks with RB Jonathan Taylor against a still-depleted 49ers defense that can be had on the ground. Rivers figures to be asked to do very little once again and any success out of his arm at all is a bonus. Defensively, the Colts are in tough at the back-end but still stout up front. If they can turn this 49ers offense one-dimensional, there's reason to believe they can hang around in this game. It might prove difficult for San Francisco to ultimately pull away if it can't effectively run the football with Christian McCaffrey (note that Indy has allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season). With WR Ricky Pearsall ruled out, the Niners offense has to be downgraded slightly as he has had a terrific rapport with QB Brock Purdy. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Washington State over Utah State at 2 pm et on Monday.

Washington State's football program could use a boost as it has fallen from prominence somewhat thanks to the crumbling and subsequent re-alignment of the Pac-12. The Cougars seemingly drew a line in the sand following an 'upset' loss at Oregon State at the start of November as they went on to win their final three games ATS with the lone loss coming in a narrow four-point defeat as a double-digit underdog at James Madison. Of note, while these two teams have posted identical 6-6 overall records this season, Washington State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Utah State has proven to be one of the best bets in the country this season, going 9-2-1 ATS. With that being said, I'm not sure how ecstatic the Aggies can be about playing at a familiar Mountain West Conference venue against a Cougars team that doesn't figure to generate a ton of enthusiasm. In a virtual pk'em, we'll seemingly go against the betting public and back Washington State. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Broncos are the AFC's number one seed on the heels of an incredible 11 straight victories. I think they'll be in for a fight on Sunday, however, as they host the surging Jaguars. Denver has rarely met a close game it doesn't like and I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here off last Sunday's win-and-cover against Green Bay. While Jacksonville has been beating up on weaker opponents and takes an obvious step up in class here, I think it will be up for the challenge. Because of the level of opposition it has faced recently, few have been paying much attention but Jacksonville has rattled off five straight victories both SU and ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get. Take Jacksonville (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants are coming off a home loss against the division-rival Commanders last Sunday and are simply playing out the string at this point. With that being said, I like their chances of rising to the occasion and putting the Vikings on 'upset' alert on Sunday. Minnesota delivered an 'upset' win of its own last Sunday night in Dallas. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this clear letdown spot on the road on Sunday. The Vikings are dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Giants offense. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think this line is a little heavy with the Saints looking to string together their third straight victory and fourth in a row ATS. New York comes off back-to-back blowout losses but this is a manageable matchup against an opponent that's simply playing out the string at this point. I thought the Jets showed some progress offensively with QB Brady Cook under center as he developed some chemistry with their top wideout at this point, Adonai Mitchell. Defensively, New York is a mess but I'm not convinced New Orleans can take full advantage. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on James Madison plus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

James Madison was essentially dismissed by most following an early season 28-14 loss in a primetime game at Louisville. From there, the Dukes reeled off 11 straight wins including a victory over Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game on December 5th, and here they are in the College Football Playoff. Few are obviously giving them a shot at upsetting mighty Oregon in Autzen but I'm willing to back them with a boatload of points in our back pocket. Of note, James Madison failed to cover the spread in that most recent win over Troy. We've only seen James Madison fail to cover the spread in consecutive games once previously this season and that happened back in early October. On the other side, Oregon enters riding a season-high six-game winning streak and also a season-high three-game ATS winning streak. While the Ducks should be able to hold off the Dukes in this contest, I simply feel they're laying too many points. Take James Madison (8*).

My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday. 

The Aggies have had a few weeks to lick their wounds following an 'upset' defeat against Texas on November 28th - their first loss of the season. Texas A&M actually enters this game on the heels of three straight ATS defeats but I expect it to bounce back here against Miami. The Hurricanes own the slightly inferior record to that of the Aggies this season and they've also faced the considerably weaker schedule by most metrics (not that their schedule was 'weak' by any means). Miami is riding a four-game winning streak but checks in just 3-4 ATS over its last seven contests. We saw home field advantage ultimately amount to nothing in last night's 'upset' victory by the Crimson Tide (we won with Alabama in that game) but I think it will matter here. This will actually only be Miami's fifth true road game of the season after they posted wins over Florida State, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh but lost at SMU during the regular season. Take Texas A&M (8*).

My selection is on Alabama plus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Friday.

I like the setup for Alabama on Friday as it looks to bounce back following a lifeless performance in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia and also gain some revenge after getting 'upset' in the regular season meeting between these two teams in Tuscaloosa. The scene will of course shift to Norman for this rematch. While the Sooners own the slightly better overall record this season that's only by virtue of playing one less game. Alabama has actually faced the more difficult schedule, even if only slightly, by most metrics. The Crimson Tide proved they can win in hostile environments over the course of the season, including an 'upset' victory Between the Hedges in Athens. Oklahoma can be had here at home, noting that it did drop a 34-26 decision here against Ole Miss in late October. Take Alabama (8*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Western Michigan at 11 am et on Friday.

Fairly straight-forward selection here as we'll fade Western Michigan as it feels accomplished after securing a MAC Championship with a double-digit win over Miami-Ohio two weeks ago. In fact, the Broncos check in riding a five-game winning streak and have lost just once since September 20th. We'll back the Owls as they also come in hot, off three straight wins and with just one defeat since September 20th as well. They've faced the considerably more difficult schedule this season and own a virtually identical overall record. We'll gladly grab all the points we can get and do so at a favorable return. Take Kennesaw State (8)*.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Delaware at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

You could probably say this season can already be considered a success for FBS newcomer Delaware as it reached a Bowl game in its inaugural season at this level. The Blue Hens notched six victories but did so on the back of a fairly easy schedule - certainly easier than that of Louisiana-Lafayette by most metrics. It's also worth noting that following a 2-1-1 ATS start to the campaign, they went 2-6 ATS over their last eight regular season contests. Louisiana-Lafayette figures to be fuelled by missing out on the Sun Belt Championship Game as it was a case of too little, too late. The Ragin' Cajuns won their final four regular season games (3-1 ATS) but that wasn't enough to undo a poor start to the campaign. I do think they can outclass the Blue Hens in this matchup and while motivation or lack thereof is always a concern, I don't think it's an issue for a Ragin' Cajuns squad that is accustomed to playing in similar level Bowl games. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (8*).

My selection is on Troy over Jacksonville State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This line has moved considerably, as is often the case during Bowl season with opt-outs and absences to deal with. We'll still take a flyer on Troy, noting that while these two teams own identical overall records on the season, the Trojans have faced the considerably more difficult schedule. In fact, Jacksonville State has gone up against one of the weakest slate of opponents in all of college football this season by most metrics. Both teams suffered disappointing losses in their respective conference championship games. Troy has quietly been one of the best bets in the country since mid-September, going 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games. Jacksonville State had one stretch that saw it cover the spread in five straight games but went 3-5 ATS in its other eight contests including 1-2 ATS over its last three games. Take Troy (8*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This game harkens back memories to Pittsburgh's 3-0 Monday night victory over Miami in the 'Mud Bowl' of 2007 (we actually cashed the 'under' in that game ;) The Steelers pulled out a 27-22 'upset' win in Baltimore last Sunday but I'm not convinced that victory will be of the 'tide-turning' variety. You're not going to win many games running for less than 40 yards but that's what Pittsburgh accomplished last week. The Steelers are still trending in the wrong direction having gone 3-5 SU and ATS over their last eight games and their home field advantage has been virtually non-existent in recent years. The Dolphins enter this game riding a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). Tanking was probably the prudent move after a miserable start to the season but instead Miami persevered and now finds itself still with something to play for down the stretch, even if its chances or reaching the playoffs are remote. I like the way the Dolphins match up in this particular contest. The Steelers have been getting gashed by opposing ground attacks and one thing Miami does well is run the football with RB De'Von Achane. He's been cleared to play after suffering an injury last week. QB Tua Tagovailoa has evolved into a true game manager and there's nothing wrong with that in this offense. Defensively, the Dolphins have all but erased opposing ground attacks in recent weeks and have the potential to make the Steelers one-dimensional on offense, noting that unit has been of the pop-gun variety for much of the season. This has all the makings of an ugly affair so we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Dolphins. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday as they return home off their bye week and draw a smash spot against the lowly Titans. Tennessee did rise to the occasion in an 'upset' win in Cleveland last Sunday, thanks to an explosive performance from its offense - the type of showing that's been few and far between this season. I expect that Titans offense to go back in the tank on Sunday as it faces a surging 49ers defense that has figured out how to play in spite of its key absences. Offensively, San Francisco is positioned exceptionally well to get whatever it wants against a very beatable Tennessee defense. The Niners are at virtually full strength on offense and draw an opponent that has barely displayed a pulse against the run or the pass. Given their recent ascension and knowing how quickly fortunes can turn, I don't expect the Niners to let their foot off the gas in this contest. Take San Francisco (8*).

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the short number with the revenge-minded Bills as they travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots on Sunday. There's a clear path to victory for Buffalo in this matchup as New England has proven vulnerable in one particular area and that's defending the run, which plays right into the hands of the strength of the Bills offense. I don't think we'll see Buffalo bang its head against the wall trying to come up with big plays through the air in this contest. Instead, I see its gameplan playing out similarly to how it attacked Pittsburgh in a road win two weeks ago. The Bills defense will look to snuff out the Patriots passing attack in this rematch and I'm confident they'll have success doing so boasting an elite pass defense. While Pats QB Drake Maye is having an MVP-caliber season, I think this is a matchup where he runs into considerable resistance. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Boise State at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I think Washington is alright with playing in this early Bowl game after it missed its opportunity to take down Oregon at home in the final week of the regular season. That 26-14 loss that featured plenty of missteps figures to have left a sour taste in the Huskies mouths and I look for them to take their frustrations out on Boise State on Saturday. Keep in mind, while these two teams own almost identical records on the season, Washington has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Boise State can't be too pleased about playing in the L.A. Bowl after blowing the doors off UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game last week. That was the high point of the Broncos season of course and I think they could be in for a letdown here. It's been an up-and-down campaign for Boise State so you have to think it feels a real sense of accomplishment having stacked up another conference title. I look for it to fall flat on Saturday. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Army checked in ranked in the Top-25 and fresh off an AAC title but was stunned 31-13 against Navy last December. This time around, it's Navy coming off the banner regular season having gone 9-2 SU but just 4-7 ATS. We'll fade the Midshipmen as they enter this contest off consecutive 'upset' victories over South Florida and Memphis. Army turned things around about a month into the season, coinciding with the switch to Cale Hellums in place of Dewayne Coleman at quarterback. Save for a blowout loss at East Carolina in a game that was played on just four days rest in late September, the Black Knights were in virtually every game this season. They're not likely to beat themselves having turned the football over just three times in their last eight games (after committing six turnovers in their first three contests). Keep in mind, while the final score showed a blowout in this matchup last year, the Black Knights were within striking distance nearly midway into the fourth quarter (trailing 21-13 at that point). QB Bryson Daily had an uncharacteristically off day, throwing three interceptions in that game. I don't think Hellums will be asked to do too much in this one. Note that he showed his mettle in a narrow loss (but cover) on the road against a good Tulane team that would go on to win the AAC title. I think we'll see Army rise to the occasion and take Navy down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Army (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The knee-jerk reaction is probably to lay the points with the defending champion Eagles as they look to avoid the unthinkable - a three-game losing streak with all three defeats potentially coming in 'upset' fashion. We'll go the other way, however, and grab the points with the Chargers at home. Philadelphia is dealing with key injuries and inefficiency at this point. It would be difficult to isolate two more damaging injuries for Philadelphia than Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively. The Chargers know all about o-line injuries with Joe Alt sidelined. With that being said, at least Los Angeles has displayed more of an identity on offense. The Eagles look lost at times with RB Saquon Barkley seemingly running in place and QB Jalen Hurts struggling to find his targets down the field. This matchup sets up well for the Chargers defense and I think Los Angeles can also effectively run the football on offense, especially with rookie RB Omarion Hampton expected to return. QB Justin Herbert isn't likely going to be asked to do too much in this particular matchup as he's admittedly banged up. We'll take our chances with the home side catching points here. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone was singing the Rams praises entering last week's matchup in Carolina but instead of rolling to their seventh straight win, they were 'upset' by the Panthers. I'm confident we'll see Los Angeles bounce back this week as it stays on the road to take on the Cardinals, who won for us in a field goal defeat in Tampa last Sunday. Few teams are as healthy as the Rams right now. The same can't be said for the Cardinals who are missing key contributors on defense in Walter Nolen III and Max Melton. The Rams likely took last Sunday's embarrassing defeat personally and I'm confident we see them draw up an aggressive gameplan on both sides of the football here. The Cardinals certainly haven't quit on the season and QB Jacoby Brissett has performed admirably since taking over the starting job, but without any semblance of a consistent ground attack, I think they're going to have a difficult time effectively shortening this game and staying inside the pointspread. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Perhaps no team is more in need of a 'get right' spot than the Vikings right now and I think they're well-positioned for exactly that as they return home to host the Commanders on Sunday. We won with Washington in last Sunday night's wild overtime defeat at the hands of the Broncos. The Commanders left it all on the field in that game and while they will welcome back dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels on Sunday, this isn't a promising matchup for him, likely still playing at less than 100% and with little reason to put too much on the line with the team simply playing out the string at this point. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has really struggled since returning from injury but he does draw a favorable matchup here. The Commanders defense can be hole-punched by even the most pedestrian offensive attacks and I do think we see the Vikes throw everything they have at them in an effort to save face off an embarrassing loss last week and following four losses in a row both SU and ATS. Take Minnesota (10*).

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a big ticket fading the Buccaneers last week as they left the back door wide open in an eventual three-point home win over the Cardinals. We'll grab the points at the expense of the Bucs again this week as I feel they're once again overvalued at home. Tampa Bay remains banged-up all over the field. QB Baker Mayfield hasn't looked quite himself for weeks. Even last Sunday, when they got a boost from the return of RB Bucky Irving, the Bucs could still only muster 20 points. They've been held to 23 points or less in four of their last five games and are winless ATS over their last four contests. The losses continue to pile up for the Saints but they have at least provided some optimism by going 2-1 ATS in their last three games. They showed no quit in last week's four-point loss in Miami and given they've held seven of their last eight opponents to 26 points or less, I believe they're in good position to stay inside the lofty pointspread on Sunday. Keep in mind, this is a division 'revenge' game for New Orleans after it was dusted 23-3 at home back on October 26th. That was when the Saints were in the midst of a four-game SU and ATS slide while the Bucs improved to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS with that victory but are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since. Take New Orleans (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams just met on November 15th as Virginia rolled to a 34-17 'upset' victory on the road. The pointspread has flipped ahead of this rematch in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Blue Devils. While Virginia owns the better overall record this season, Duke has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. I like the way the Blue Devils picked themselves up and dusted themselves off following that defeat at the hands of the Cavaliers, rallying for wins over North Carolina and Wake Forest. Virginia couldn't have looked much better in last Saturday's 27-7 rout of in-state rival Virginia Tech. I can't help but feel that's left the Cavaliers overvalued in this rematch with the Blue Devils. Look for Duke to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Duke (10*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Indiana has obviously had a phenomenal season, running the table to this point with a 12-0 record - identical to that of Ohio State. However the Hoosiers are just 7-5 ATS compared to the Buckeyes 10-1-1 ATS mark and Ohio State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Indiana's 'upset' win on the road against Oregon back in October was impressive but apart from that, the Hoosiers simply took care of business in games where the result was rarely in doubt ahead of proceedings. Ohio State book-ended its regular season with impressive wins over Texas and Michigan and was rarely challenged in-between. The Buckeyes lone pointspread defeat came in a 24-point romp over Purdue. This is being pegged as a 'Clash of the Titans' of sorts with the two teams ranked number one and two in the country but I'm not convinced it will be the barn-burner most are expecting. It's been five years since Ohio State has been in the Big Ten Championship Game and I don't think it will take this one for granted. Take Ohio State (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Tulane plus the points over North Texas at 8 pm et on Friday.

North Texas has certainly enjoyed an incredible season, going 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on its way to an appearance in Friday's AAC Championship Game. With that being said, Tulane is no pushover. The Green Wave have faced the more difficult schedule than the Mean Green Eagles and check in sporting a 10-2 SU record. While Tulane hasn't enjoyed nearly the same level of pointspread success that's had a lot to do with the fact that it entered the season firmly entrenched on the betting marketplace's radar. While the Green Wave closed the regular season on a 2-4-1 ATS slide over their last six games, they went 6-1 SU over that stretch with all six wins coming by at least six points including an 'upset' victory on the road against Memphis. We'll grab all the points we can get in this much-anticipated matchup. Take Tulane (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Troy at 7 pm et on Friday.

Credit Troy for reaching this Sun Belt Championship Game as it reeled off back-to-back wins and covers against Georgia State and Southern Miss to close out the regular season. Keep in mind, the Trojans are just two games removed from a two-game slide that saw them get outscored by a combined 56-10 margin against Arkansas State and Old Dominion. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 10 straight games involving Troy. James Madison was pretty much discarded following a two-touchdown defeat in a nationally-televised Friday night game in Louisville in Week 2. Since that setback, the Dukes have gone 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS. They own one of the best defenses in the nation that few talk about and we'll call for them to ultimately pull away in this contest. Take James Madison (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Patriots were severely undervalued following a 1-2 SU and ATS start to the season and went on to win five straight games ATS following that stretch and enter Monday's game on a nine-game SU winning streak. With that being said, they're just 1-2-1 ATS over their last four contests. Pointspread success isn't coming easy for Mike Vrabel's squad right now as the cat is out of the bag, so to speak - the Patriots are the real deal and casual bettors are well aware of that. I think they're overvalued in this spot as they host a Giants team that's seemingly in a constant state of flux. New York hasn't quit on the season as it has pushed the Bears, Packers and Lions - all potential playoff teams - hard in its last three games, going 2-0-1 ATS along the way. It gets a boost here with the return of rookie QB Jaxson Dart. With recent changes to the coaching staff, there's a renewed sense of urgency for the Giants right now. The pressure lies squarely on the Patriots shoulders here as they're expected to win this game after the division-rival Bills took care of business yesterday. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that this game wasn't 'flexed' out of primetime is interesting. Perhaps NBC executives know something most don't and expect the Commanders to give the Broncos a run. I do like Washington's chances of giving Denver some trouble in this one. Note that Denver hasn't met a tight game it doesn't like this season with seven of its 11 contests having been decided by four points or less. The Broncos haven't lost since Week 3 in Los Angeles (against the Chargers). The Commanders haven't won a game since Week 5 (also against the Chargers). This will likely be Washington QB Marcus Mariota's last stand before Jayden Daniels makes his expected return next week. I don't think Mariota will be asked to do much against a vaunted Broncos defense on Sunday. Instead, look for Washington to put this one in the hands of its defense. The Commanders have brought the heat against opposing quarterbacks this season and I do think there's a path for them to knock Broncos QB Bo Nix off course in this matchup. After getting thoroughly embarrassed i its last two home games against Seattle and Detroit, look for Washington to put forth a better showing here. Take Washington (8*). 

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns are playing with renewed confidence with QB Shedeur Sanders taking over the offense. His presence gives the Browns fan base some reason for optimism at the very least, even if it does end up being short-lived. Here, I think Cleveland is capable of keeping San Francisco within arm's reach for four quarters. The 49ers got the win they needed against the Panthers in primetime on Monday. Carolina put forth a rather curious gameplan and ultimately came up well short. The Niners defense remains banged-up while the offense has shown positive signs but is being led by a less-than-100% healthy Brock Purdy. The Browns elite defense will undoubtedly be eager to attack Purdy aggressively in the Dawg Pound on Sunday. Allowing less than 4.0 yards per rush, Cleveland should be able to effectively erase San Francisco's offensive focal point in RB Christian McCaffrey. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this game on three-game SU and ATS slides and while Tampa Bay figures to have the talent edge, not to mention home field advantage, I think Arizona comes away victorious. The Cardinals have run up against a difficult schedule over the last six games, facing the Colts, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers and Jaguars in succession. Forgive them if they looked like they ran out of gas in last Sunday's overtime loss to Jacksonville. Arizona has thrown caution to the wind offensively, turning veteran QB Jacoby Brissett loose and all but abandoning its broken ground attack. Against Tampa Bay's struggling defense, Brissett is set up for success again this week. Offensively, the Buccaneers are in tough. While QB Baker Mayfield and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka will once again be on the field, they're nowhere near 100% healthy. Mayfield took a beating against the Rams in primetime last Sunday, injuring his non-throwing shoulder. The Cards have an underrated defense that has been particularly tough defending the pass. Arizona checks in 4-1 ATS on the road this season while Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS at home. Take Arizona (10*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts have cooled off, dropping two of their last three games including a hard-fought overtime battle in Kansas City last Sunday. I think the door is open for the Texans to make a move in the AFC South and I like the way this matchup sets up for them on Sunday in Indianapolis. We won with Houston last week as it stunned the Bills in a Thursday night home game. While the Texans will hit the road this week, they'll once again benefit from playing indoors, which does give their offense a boost in my opinion. QB C.J. Stroud is set to return and while not a massive difference-maker, he is certainly an upgrade over Davis Mills, who did perform admirably in Stroud's absence. Defensively, the Texans are elite and seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. They'll be ready to tee off on Colts QB Daniel Jones on Sunday as he's looked more and more like the Jones of old lately. While Jonathan Taylor can run on anyone, I think the Colts will have a difficult time ever pulling away in this contest. Take Houston (10*).

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 6:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this 'revenge' spot sets up for Washington State. Oregon State took the first meeting between these 'last teams standing' in the Pac-12 back on November 1st, prevailing in an ugly 10-7 contest in Corvallis. The scene shifts to Pullman for Saturday's rematch and I look for the Cougars to roll. Washington State has faced the more difficult schedule this season and has posted the better overall record. With a win on Saturday, the Cougars would gain Bowl eligibility. They enter playing some of their best football having won back-to-back games ATS. Note that Washington State's longest ATS winning streak this season lasted four games so this is a team that has earned the trust of its backers. Oregon State comes off back-to-back SU and ATS losses including an ugly defeat against a weak Tulsa team on November 15th. The bye week came at an awful team as the Beavers are simply playing out the string at this point. Take Washington State (10*).

My selection is on Southern Miss minus the points over Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Southern Miss appeared to be on track for a double-digit win season before getting derailed by consecutive losses against Texas State and South Alabama. I look for the Golden Eagles to bounce back on Saturday as they host Troy in their home finale. The Trojans righted the ship with a 31-19 win and cover at home against Georgia State on Senior Night last week. Now the shoe is on the other foot, however, as they travel to face Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have inexplicably dropped the cash in three straight games following a 5-2-1 ATS start to the season. They've had a miserable time trying to contain opposing ground games but they catch a break here as the Trojans are one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, gaining 100+ yards on the ground in just four of 11 games this season. Take Southern Miss (8*).

My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Kennesaw State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While I understand the logic behind Kennesaw State being installed as a road favorite in this game, after all it does have seven wins compared to Liberty's four, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points. The Owls avoided a second straight loss with a 41-34 win on Senior Night last week against Missouri State. That snapped their two-game ATS slide so it's not as if they've been playing their best football of the season down the stretch. Liberty enters this contest on the heels of three straight losses, both SU and ATS. The Flames are obviously just playing for pride at this point but at home, on Senior Night, I do look for them to rise to the occasion and end their season on a positive note. This will be a 'revenge' game for Liberty after it dropped a 27-24 decision on the road against Kennesaw State last year. Take Liberty (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over South Alabama at 3 pm et on Saturday.

South Alabama emptied the proverbial tank in last week's 42-35 win over Southern Miss on Senior Night - its sixth straight victory over the Golden Eagles. The Jaguars haven't had the same success against Texas State, most recently dropping a 45-38 decision at home in last year's matchup. We'll back the Bobcats here as they look to become Bowl eligible and that would be a big victory given the way the team struggled during a five-game slide earlier in the season. Texas State enters this game on a roll, having won back-to-back games but it did fail to cover the lofty -20 pointspread in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe. We're working with a more reasonable number this time around. Take Texas State (10*).

My selection is on Arkansas State plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Appalachian State has already been relegated to a 'spoiler' role down the stretch - a role it played well last week as it went on the road and 'upset' Marshall. That only served to snap the Mountaineers four-game losing streak, however. They won't be going Bowling this season as they own just four wins with just this contest remaining on their schedule. Arkansas State needs one more win to gain Bowl eligibility. The Red Wolves are coming off an 0-2 homestand that included an 'upset' loss against Louisiana-Lafayette on Senior Night last week. While I don't like to make a habit of fading teams playing their home finale - especially ones that have 'nothing to lose', I like the setup for Arkansas State as an underdog here. Take Arkansas State (8*).

My selection is on Clemson plus the points over South Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Clemson surely hasn't forgotten South Carolina beating it in its own backyard last November. The Tigers enter this game on a roll, winners of three straight games to salvage what had the potential to be a disastrous season. Their only loss so far in November came in a wild 46-45 affair on the road against a surging Duke team. South Carolina's season was derailed weeks ago with the exclamation point coming in a ridiculous game at Texas A&M in which they blew a 30-3 lead. The Gamecocks were able to breathe a sigh of relief last Saturday as they rolled to a 51-7 win against an overmatched Coastal Carolina team. Still, South Carolina is going nowhere with just four victories on the season. The SEC bias is strong with the Gamecocks favored at all in this game. Take Clemson (8*).

My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Arizona at 9 pm et on Friday.

I don't think there's much at all separating these two in-state rivals, as evidenced by the narrow pointspread favoring Arizona (at the time of writing). I'll make a case for backing the Sun Devils, noting that they've faced the tougher schedule by most metrics this season and return home where they've gone 5-1 SU this season. Arizona is already in uncharted territory as it is riding a season-high four-game winning streak. Arizona State has won three games in a row - a feat it accomplished once before this season. On that occasion, it failed to register a fourth straight victory but it was in a difficult situation travelling to face Utah as a near-double-digit underdog. Arizona is just an even 2-2 on the road this season but those two victories have come in its last two road dates at Colorado and Cincinnati. We'll simply call for the Wildcats to suffer a letdown of sorts as they come off Saturday's 41-17 rout of Baylor in what was their regular season home finale. Take Arizona State (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over Utah State at 4 pm et on Friday.

This season hasn't gone exactly as planned for Boise State but it did manage to snap a two-game slide with a resounding 49-21 win over Colorado State on Saturday and I'm confident it can build on that performance as it wraps up the regular season at Utah State on Friday. The Broncos offense took out weeks of frustration on the Rams last time out. They'll face another beatable defense in the Aggies on Friday. Utah State has played some of its best football lately, reeling off three straight ATS victories. In fact, the Aggies are 9-2 ATS this season - one of the best bets in the country. I still don't like their defense and think they've benefited from a rather light schedule, padding their defensive numbers against pop-gun offenses in UTEP, FCS squad McNeese State, Nevada and most recently Fresno State. This is a team that also gave up 30 points against Air Force, 44 points against Hawaii and 33 points against New Mexico. While the Aggies do figure to inflict some damage offensively in this game, I expect them to be playing catch-up most of the day and never be able to run down the Broncos. Take Boise State (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Friday.

The Utes remain in the mix for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game as they travel to Lawrence to take on the Jayhawks in Friday's regular season finale. Utah has looked like a team on a mission since its 24-21 loss at rival BYU on October 18th. Since that game, the Utes have produced 53, 45, 55 and 51 points in reeling off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS over that stretch. The lone ATS defeat came on Saturday as it narrowly avoided the 'upset' at home against Kansas State. After allowing 47 points in that game, I expect the Utes defense to enter this contest in a particularly foul mood. Kansas has never been able to regain the form that saw it open the season with four wins in its first six games, dropping four of its last five contests entering Friday's home finale. Running into the well-oiled machine that is the Utes offense spells trouble as the Jayhawks have played matador-like defense down the stretch, allowing 38 points or more points in three of their last five games. The Utes have yet to drop the cash in consecutive games this season, winning by 34 points at West Virginia and 46 points at home against Colorado in their last two games following an ATS loss, and we'll call for them to avoid that fate again on Friday. Take Utah (10*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Thursday.

It's not often we talk about a team being in a 'bounce-back' spot off a win but I think that's the case with the Lions after they narrowly escaped, and needed a late rally to do so, with an overtime win over the Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers dismantled the division rival Vikings at home to successfully rebound following a primetime loss to the defending champion Eagles. I don't like the way this matchup sets up for Green Bay as it travels to Detroit on Thursday. The Packers are dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Even if their banged-up defenders can go, there's no guarantee they'll be at full strength and this is a nightmarish matchup against an elite Lions offense. Detroit is finally getting healthier defensively with CB Terrion Arnold potentially able to return on Thursday. Even if he can't go, the Lions defense was bolstered by the return of CB D.J. Reed on Sunday. I like the matchup for Detroit's defense against a lukewarm Packers offense that won't have RB Josh Jacobs at 100% health. Emanuel Wilson has done a nice job spelling Jacobs but he's not a proven number one back by any means. Detroit's Thanksgiving Day woes are mostly a thing of the past, although I do think an 'upset' defeat here at home against these same Packers two years ago is still fresh in its mind entering this clash. Expect a statement performance from the Lions. Take Detroit (10*).

NFC East Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

It's not often we see the defending Super Bowl champions enjoy the level of pointspread sucess the Eagles have so far this season. They enter this game sporting a 7-3 ATS mark and currently riding a four-game ATS winning streak. I think the latter comes to an end on Sunday in Dallas, however. The Cowboys followed up their bye week with a 33-16 rout of the Raiders in Las Vegas on Monday. It's been an up-and-down season for Dallas to be sure, in a myriad of ways. I like the revenge spot here, however, as the Cowboys look to take advantage of an Eagles team that has sputtered offensively with RB Saquon Barkley predictably struggling to regain last year's form and is sure to miss RT Lane Johnson and potentiall C Cam Jurgens as well on Sunday. The Eagles defense has carried the team but I think there's a path for the Cowboys offense to keep this game ultra-competitive on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia will be playing its third game in 14 days after consecutive down-to-the-wire affairs against tough opponents in the Packers and Lions. I do wonder whether we see a letdown against a divisional opponent it has beaten up on in recent years here. It's not often we put our money on the Cowboys, but we'll make an exception here as I like the way they're positioned grabbing points at home. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on New England minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It's amazing to me that a hint of optimism still swirls around the Bengals with the news that QB Joe Burrow could make his return to the field for the stretch run. Cincinnati is 3-7 and I'm not sure Burrow's presence will serve to resurrect a team that has arguably the worst defense in football, especially given its current injury situation. The Bengals will be without standout rookie DE Shemar Stewart and likely all-world pass rusher Trey Hendrickson as well again on Sunday. That spells trouble as they prepare to face a multi-pronged Patriots offense that just keeps getting better with QB Drake Maye at the helm. You'd be hard-pressed to find a quarterback playing at a higher level, or certainly with more poise than Maye right now. He draws another mouth-watering matchup here after a precise performance against the lowly Jets last week. Cincinnati, even if it does have Burrow back in action, will be without WR Ja'Marr Chase following his spitting incident last week. The Bengals played matador-like defense in Pittsburgh last week - a recurring theme this season. While they're certainly in desperation mode from this point forward, I don't see a path to staying competitive in this game. Take New England (8*).

AFC Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As was somewhat expected, the Ravens had their hands full with the division-rival Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. Still, Baltimore prevailed by a 23-16 score - its fourth straight victory to get back to .500 on the season. The Ravens can't let down their guard as they have little margin for error in a competitive AFC landscape. This game sets up as a smash spot for Baltimore - on both sides of the football. The Ravens haven't played a game at home since rolling to a 30-16 victory over the Bears - with Cooper Rush at quarterback - on October 26th. The Jets have actually won two of their last three games but those victories came against the reeling Bengals and Browns. Last week, they got a reality check in a 27-14 loss in New England in a game that I don't feel was as close as the final score indicated. New York is expected to go back to journeyman Tyrod Taylor to run the offense on Sunday. I don't expect him to fare any better than Justin Fields against a Ravens defense that continues to ascend now that it's back at full strength. Off a rather sloppy performance against a terrific Browns defense last Sunday, we'll call for the Ravens to operate with precision in what turns into a rout this week. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Stanford plus the points over California at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with California in its stunning 'upset' win at Louisville two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Golden Bears as they travel to The Farm to face Stanford on Saturday. Prior to the win at Louisville, Cal had lost three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS. It's not as if this is a team that has enjoyed an extended period of success. It did get off to a strong start this season but that had everything to do with a very manageable early schedule. Stanford is 3-7 on the season but has also faced a considerably more difficult schedule than Cal by most metrics. The Cardinal enter this game off three straight losses but did cover the spread in their most recent game two weeks ago at North Carolina. This isn't a team that has quit on the season and ahead of a very difficult home finale against Notre Dame next week, we'll call for the Cardinal to snap their losing streak on Saturday. Take Stanford (8*).

My selection is on Boise State minus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Colorado State is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday as it heads to Boise to face a Broncos team that is sure to be in a foul mood following back-to-back losses both SU and ATS against Fresno State and San Diego State. The visiting Rams have parlayed a fairly manageable schedule into an ugly 2-8 record this season and enter this contest riding a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS). This is a team that could muster only 17 points (and ran for just 13 yards) despite affording itself four takeaways last Saturday at New Mexico. The schedule certainly doesn't get any easier here. Boise State had started the season 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS before its current two-game slide. It does have ample runway to finish the regular season strong with this game followed by a road tilt with Utah State next week. We'll lay the points here. Take Boise State (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with South Carolina against the spread last week as it jumped ahead with a huge lead at halftime before crumbling in the second half in a wild 31-30 loss at Texas A&M. That was a back-breaking defeat for the Gamecocks as it ensured their Bowl ineligibility with only three wins and just two games remaining in the regular season. I think South Carolina is going to have an extremely difficult time getting up for this late season non-conference affair ahead of next week's home finale against Clemson. It certainly appears that the Gamecocks are out of gas at this point. Coastal Carolina on the other hand will be up for this game off a disappointing 'upset' loss on the road against Georgia Southern last week. I don't think the Chanticleers simply want to keep things competitive in this game - as they may have felt about this contest looking ahead at the start of the season - but rather they probably believe they can put the Gamecocks on 'upset alert'. Coastal Carolina is 6-4 on the campaign so it will be going Bowling. It wraps up the regular season with a showdown against nationally-ranked James Madison next week. Even if the Chanticleers do want to keep something in the tank for that contest, I still think they can stay inside the lofty pointspread here. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The presence of Davis Mills at quarterback for the Texans will certainly scare away a lot of potential bettors but he has actually evolved into a fairly solid backup option for Houston and is 2-0 as a starter this season. It's the Houston defense that should carry a lot of the load in this difficult Thursday night matchup. The Bills looked to me like they 'emptied the tank' in Sunday's wild home win over the Buccaneers. That game went back and forth for 60 minutes before Buffalo eventually pulled away. I certainly don't think the Bills offense will enjoy the same level of success travelling on a short week to face one of the league's best defenses in Houston. Look for the Texans offense to do just enough to at the very least take this game down to the wire. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with Kent State in its 'upset' win at Akron last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Golden Flashes as they host Central Michigan on Wednesday. Kent State is 3-6 on the season and won't be going Bowling as there are only two games remaining. The Golden Flashes, while owning an inferior record to that of the Chippewas, have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Chips have already gained Bowl eligibility after winning for the third time in their last four games (4-0 ATS) last week against Buffalo. I think they'll have their hands full with a Golden Flashes team playing their home finale, and also noting that Central Michigan has a big game on deck against Toledo to wrap up the regular season next week. Take Kent State (8*).

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is in Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with Northern Illinois in its rout of hapless Massachusetts last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Huskies as they return home to host Western Michigan on Tuesday. The Broncos are 6-4 on the season and have faced a slightly more difficult schedule than the 3-7 Huskies. Western Michigan comes off a win over Ohio in its home finale last week but I don't think we'll see a letdown here as it has its sights set on a spot in the MAC Championship Game with one contest remaining on its regular season slate next week at Eastern Michigan. Northern Illinois is simply playing out the string at this point and will look ahead to its home finale on Black Friday against Kent State - a winnable game to be sure. Take Western Michigan (10*).

NFC West Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a big ticket with the Rams in last week's road win and cover over the 49ers. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Los Angeles on Sunday, however, as they host similarly-streaking Seattle. The Seahawks, like the Rams, come off four straight victories. They weren't really tested in last week's rout of the Cardinals. There's obviously not a lot separating these two division rivals, but I do give the Seahawks the slight edge defensively and believe their offense can do enough to at least hold serve and put the Rams on 'upset' alert on Sunday afternoon. Note that while the Seahawks wide receiver room has only gotten stronger with the addition of Rashid Shaheed and the return to health of veteran Cooper Kupp (who will be facing his former team), the Rams don't boast a ton of depth and will have to move forward with DaVante Adams at less than 100% healthy by most accounts. This is a game that I think will be decided by the passing games as neither side appears willing to give an inch on the ground. Take Seattle (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

There's suddenly some optimism around the Bengals despite the fact that they enter this game off back-to-back losses SU and ATS and have given up a ridiculous 117 points over their last three games. Joe Burrow having his practice window opened up has a lot to do with it. Perhaps the bye week has resulted in many forgetting what they saw out of Cincinnati in that ridiculous 47-42 home loss to the Bears on November 2nd. Meanwhile, the Steelers fell to 0-3 SU and ATS in primetime games with last Sunday's ugly loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. They figure to be bent on revenge in this particular matchup after they fell 33-31 in one of those primetime contests back on October 16th. Of note, the Steelers closed as five-point favorites on the road in that matchup. Cincinnati's defense was already dreadful and now it's without rookie pass rusher Shemar Stewart in addition to Trey Hendrickson. We know Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers can still ball when given time in the pocket and he should certainly be afforded that in spades on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Miami at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

Few bettors want any part of the Commanders after their ugly 44-22 home loss against the Lions last Sunday, marking their fifth straight loss. They'll have a bye week on deck so I do think we'll see them empty the tank in this winnable game against the Dolphins in Madrid. Miami is coming off an 'upset' win over the Bills at home last week - one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. The Dolphins do have some positives to build off of to be sure, but they're banged-up on defense and I think we'll see Washington play with an edge defensively with head coach Dan Quinn taking over play-calling duties on that side of the football. I'm just not ready to anoint the Dolphins being 'back' after one positive performance. While the Commanders are in a tail-spin, it's worth considering the level of competition they've faced during their slide (Bears, Cowboys, Chiefs, Seahawks and Lions). While these two teams own identical 3-7 records, Washington has faced the tougher slate of opponents by most metrics. Finally, we'll note that Washington hasn't lost six games in a row since the 2014 season. Look for it to avoid that fate here. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The knee-jerk reaction here is to back the Bulldogs laying a short number off their massive 'upset' win at Boise State last time out (two weeks ago). While Fresno State was doing that, Wyoming was dropping a 24-7 decision at San Diego State. While the Bulldogs do own the better overall record in this matchup, the Cowboys have navigated the tougher schedule by most metrics. Fresno State has actually been a losing bet on the season despite is 6-3 SU record, going 4-5 ATS. That includes a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five contests. Wyoming needs to win two of its final three games to gain Bowl eligibility while Fresno State just got there with the win over Boise State. Take Wyoming (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses last week with Boise State dropping a 30-7 decision at home against Fresno State and San Diego State getting blasted 38-6 at Hawaii. While the Aztecs own the better overall record in this matchup, the Broncos have faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Boise State already has three losses this season so its margin for error is slim from this point forward. Note that the Broncos three previous defeats were almost a direct result of a boatload of turnovers. That's not necessarily the norm for this offense, however, and Boise State's defense has proven capable of producing takeaways when needed as well. This is always a spirited matchup and one where I feel grabbing the points is rarely a bad idea, regardless of the circumstances surround the two teams at any given point in time. Take Boise State (10*).

TV Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas plus the points over Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game playing well with Texas having won four straight games and Georgia riding a five-game winning streak. While the Bulldogs had to travel to face Mississippi State in an eventual 41-21 win last week, Texas was idle. The last time we saw the Longhorns they held off Vanderbilt 34-31 two weeks ago, in a game that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. Bettors have been quick to write off Texas after a sleepy start to the season and a 2-6-1 ATS mark. I think now is the time to back the Longhorns as they're simply catching too many points in this SEC showdown they'll undoubtedly get up for in Athens. Take Texas (10*).

My selection is on Texas State plus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State's late rally fell just short last week as the Bobcats fell to 0-5 in conference play this season with the defeat. Meanwhile, Southern Miss won 27-21 at Arkansas State on the strength of a whopping six takeaways. USM is a perfect 5-0 against Sun Belt foes and has the inside track to a West Division title. Believe it or not, Texas State, despite its struggles this season, can still gain Bowl eligibility by winning out the rest of the way and that's not insurmountable if they can win here as their final two regular season games will be played at home. We'll grab the points with the Bobcats as they catch the Golden Eagles in a letdown spot. Take Texas State (8*).

My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Gamecocks haven't had the season they were hoping for but they still have plenty to play for and can begin by playing spoiler on the road against undefeated Texas A&M on Saturday. South Carolina has lost four straight games going 1-3 ATS over that stretch including a 30-14 loss at Ole Miss last Saturday. We'll fade the Aggies here as they return home following a win-and-cover at a short-handed Missouri team last week. That marked Texas A&M's ninth straight victory and second win in a row ATS. Of note, South Carolina has faced a slightly more difficult schedule than Texas A&M this season. This will be the Aggies last real test before travelling to Austin to take on Texas in the last week of the regular season (they'll host FCS squad Samford next week). Take South Carolina (8*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Wisconsin at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Wisconsin is coming off a big 'upset' win at home against Washington last week to snap its six-game slide. The Badgers are still likely going nowhere this season, unless they win out over a tough three-game stretch to end the regular season, and I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday. Indiana jumped ahead early but needed a late rally to hold off a game Penn State squad in Happy Valley last Saturday. I think that close call will serve as a wake-up call for the Hoosiers, who have national title aspirations under Curt Cignetti this season. Keep in mind, prior to that narrow victory, the Hoosiers had won their last two games by 50 and 45-point margins. They'll rebound in their regular season home finale on Saturday. Take Indiana (10*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Minnesota at 9 pm et on Friday.

Minnesota hasn't travelled well this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home. A big reason for that is the Golden Gophers inability to keep their offense on the field as they continue to struggle to sustain drives and keep their defense fresh. That creates a nightmare matchup against Oregon on Friday. The Ducks high-powered offense was held in check by a good Iowa defense in adverse weather conditions last Saturday. Still, Oregon prevailed by an 18-16 score but dropped the cash for the second straight contest. The Ducks are 5-4 ATS on the season and have yet to lose three straight games ATS, a fate they'll look to avoid on Friday. Minnesota on the other hand, will also be trying to avoid a third straight ATS defeat having already done so earlier in the campaign (it actually went winless ATS over a four-game span from September 13th to October 11th). After consecutive sleepy performances offensively, we'll call for the Ducks to get rolling on Friday night in Eugene. Take Oregon (8*).

AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Jets enter this game off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS but they're the very definition of 'paper tigers'. They're banged-up at key positions and sold off pieces prior to the trade deadline. The players that are still there aren't all that happy and while a divisional matchup in primetime is easy to get up for, I don't think they can hang with the Patriots for 60 minutes. Yes, New England is in a clear letdown spot off an 'upset' win in Tampa on Sunday. However, the matchup advantages are simply too plentiful for me to ignore in this game. The Patriots enter riding a seven-game winning streak, going 6-1 ATS over that stretch. They've blown out the teams they should, winning by 29 points against Carolina, 18 points against Tennessee and 19 points against Cleveland during that stretch. I expect the Pats defense to feast in this game and for it to serve as another breakout game for rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson in front of a national audience. Aaron Glenn's Jets simply won't have the answers. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Massachusetts at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

The road back to respectability begins on Wednesday for Northern Illinois as it draws a favorable three-game stretch to close out the regular season. The Huskies have little to play for but pride at this point. A difficult schedule has limited them to just two victories after making such positive strides last year. I do see this as a 'get right' spot off last week's 42-3 drubbing at Toledo. UMass has yet to win a game this season and there's a real chance the Minutemen won't taste victory at all this year. Things have gone from bad to worse lately as UMass has been lit up for 82 points over its last two games. The Minutemen were competitive the last time we saw them on this field against Buffalo on October 18th but the Bulls were in a flat spot. I don't think the Huskies will come out flat on Wednesday as they lay waste to an overmatched Minutemen squad. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams are coming off much different results last week. Toledo crushed Northern Illinois 42-3 at home while Miami-Ohio fell by a 24-20 score at Ohio. We'll call for a reversal of fortunes on Wednesday. Toledo is 5-4 on the season while Miami-Ohio is 4-4. Not all records are created equal, however, noting that the Redhawks have faced the far more difficult schedule by most metrics. Miami-Ohio still needs two victories to gain Bowl eligibility, with only three games remaining. With a tough test at Buffalo on deck next week, this is a critical spot for the home side. Take Miami-Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Akron at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State coughed up a late lead in a 17-13 loss at Ball State last week. The Golden Flashes won't be a popular bet on Tuesday but we'll back them as we fade Akron coming off back-to-back wins for the first time this season and also looking to deliver a third straight ATS victory for the first time this season. Not only are the Zips being asked to win, but to win by margin. I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams. Akron is desperate to gain Bowl eligibility and it will need to win out over its final two games to do so. That's being factored into the line, however. Take Kent State (8*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I think we're looking at a 'wrong team favored' situation on Monday as the Eagles come off their bye week and travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. Not much separates these two teams in the NFC standings. However, all records aren't created equally. Note that Green Bay has faced one of the easiest schedules in the league - arguably the easiest from Week 2 on (after a matchup with the Lions in its opener). The knee-jerk reaction might be to back the Pack in this rebound spot off last Sunday's 'upset' loss at home against the Panthers. I simply feel there are some issues that just aren't going to be fixed in the matter of a week. Losing TE Tucker Kraft certainly hurts but all in all, this is just an unfavorable matchup on both sides of the football for Green Bay. It's a pick your poison type of situation when you're facing the Eagles multi-pronged offense. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has had an extra week to scheme up a game plan on defense. The Eagles have looked like a different team since that upset loss in a Thursday nighter in New York on October 9th. Now they're incredibly fresh, playing only their third game since. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This game has blowout potential as injuries have severely depleted the 49ers on both sides of the football. The Rams are off a blowout win over the lowly Saints last Sunday but I don't think there's any chance of a letdown here as they head on the road to face a division rival. Los Angeles has a wealth of options to work with on offense with WR DaVante Adams giving the team even more than they probably expected, nicely complimenting legitimate superstar Puka Nacua. A shell of their former selves up front due to injury, Rams RB Kyren Williams figures to go off in this game as well. Defensively, the Rams are set to put Niners QB Mac Jones under duress all afternoon long. Last week, San Francisco scored 30+ points but that was rather misleading against a struggling Giants defense as Jones didn't even attempt to stretch the field. The Niners simply aren't built to play from behind right now with RB Christian McCaffrey the focal point of their offense. Take Los Angeles (10*).