My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night, holding on for a wild 8-6 victory. I expect the Brewers to answer back on Saturday. Taj Bradley has had a career year in many aspects for the Twins. With that being said, I don't love the matchup for the right-hander here. Bradley will walk his share of batters - nearly four per nine innings, in fact, and 13 over his last 24 innings of work. The Brewers, while not thought of as one of baseball's elite offensive teams, are capable of taking advantage. Note that they rank fourth in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While the Twins did do a lot to bolster their bullpen prior to the trade deadline, they have a number of key relievers that are in 'overworked' territory entering Saturday's contest. Milwaukee will send Robert Gasser to the hill. While not a household name by any means, Gasser has been pitching well lately, allowing two earned runs or less in three straight starts and walking just two over his last four outings, covering a span of 19 innings. He's been much better at home than on the road this season, logging a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP here at American Family Field. Of note, the Twins rank 24th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers got their bullpen in order in last night's contest, using just two relievers. While depth-shy, their 'pen has been terrific this season, logging a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 37 saves converted and only 15 blown. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

A lot of bettors figure to be a little nervous backing the Dodgers right now. Los Angeles has lost five straight games including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cubs earlier this week. I do think the Dodgers will have used yesterday's off day as a reset of sorts and expect them to get back on track in this series against the Diamondbacks. Arizona played last night and lost its series finale against San Diego. The D'Backs bats have been uneven of late and will draw a tough test in Roki Sasaki on Friday. Sasaki has been in excellent form for an extended stretch now and has held current D'Backs hitters to a collective two hits in 15 at-bats (small sample size I know). Behind Sasaki is a Dodgers bullpen that will have all hands on deck following an off day and that's where a big advantage lies. Arizona's 'pen is average at best in my estimation and currently missing a key high-leverage arm in Ryan Thompson. Merrill Kelly isn't really a good candidate to work deep into this ball game. Current Dodgers have seen plenty of him, going 50-for-177 (.282) with a healthy .878 OPS. Six different Dodgers have homered off of him. Kelly did have a productive July but struggled to the tune of five earned runs allowed on eight hits over five innings in his first start of August - a 5-0 loss to the Guardians. His hits, home runs and walks allowed per nine innings are all up significantly over last season while his strikeouts are down. I don't need to tell you that's a recipe for disaster against a Dodgers lineup that is itching for a breakout. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cardinals exploded for 13 runs in the opener of this series last night in what was an admittedly tough spot for the Yankees following a 2-1 win on getaway day in Chicago on Sunday. I look for New York to bounce back on Tuesday as it sends Ryan Weathers to the hill against Hunter Dobbins. Weathers was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings on the road against the White Sox. Unfortunately for him, the Yankees bats didn't show up in a 2-1 extra innings defeat. Prior to that New York had won each of his last three starts with all three victories coming by at least two runs. Weathers has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts overall. The Cards rank 20th in the majors in xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season and have seen Weathers for a collective seven at-bats, with only one hit (albeit a home run by Ivan Herrera). Dobbins gets another turn in the starting rotation for St. Louis. He was roughed up for four earned runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Cubs last time out. On the season he owns a respectable 3.81 FIP but a 1.34 WHIP. For his career, Dobbins has been a considerably worse pitcher on the road, logging a 4.78 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in eight appearances compared to a 3.47 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 home outings. The bullpen situation favors New York as it doesn't have any relievers coming off consecutive days of work. The Cards used George Soriano and Ryne Stanek on Sunday and Monday meaning those two relief arms will likely be unavailable on Tuesday. While the Yankees 'pen hasn't been lights out lately, it does have a much better long-term track record than that of the Cards. St. Louis' relief corps has posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with only 14 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Over the last week they've combined to record a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with no saves converted and two blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the extra run to aim for a generous return in a matchup that favors the Twins at home on Tuesday. Kansas City enters this game on a rare winning streak as it took advantage of a fading Tigers club in back-to-back victories over the weekend. I don't think the Royals will be so fortunate following an off day on Monday. Seth Lugo wil start for Kansas City. He's at the point of his career where opposing hitters, particularly divisional opponents, have seen so much of him it's difficult not to find some success. Current Twins hitters are a collective 26-for-92 (.283) with a .794 OPS against him. Every player on the Twins roster that has seen Lugo has collected at least a hit with eight of the 13 recording multiple knocks. Lugo has benefited from making his last two starts at home - both resulting in Royals victories. He has issued multiple walks and hit a batter in three straight outings, pointing to his command issues. On the season he's 4-6 with a 4.27 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. Bradley has quietly gone 9-4 with a 4.05 FIP and 1.22 WHIP on the season, flirting with career-best strikeout-per-nine inning numbers. He has given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts with the lone blemish coming in a difficult road matchup against the surging Cubs on July 18th. Current Royals hitters are 8-for-44 (.182) with a .422 OPS against Bradley. Both bullpens have under-achieved this season but I've been more disappointed by the Royals relief corps. Given the names in its 'pen you would expect better than a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with 27 saves converted and 18 blown. The Twins 'pen has been much better lately, sporting a 3.32 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with eight saves converted and only one blown over the last month. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers needed a ninth inning rally to secure a come-from-behind victory to open this series last night and we won with the 'over' thanks to that comeback. I don't think Los Angeles will have as much trouble securing a win on Saturday. Of note, Baltimore checks in ranked last in baseball in xwOBA over the last week while the Dodgers sit in second. Trevor Rogers will take the ball for the Orioles on Saturday. He was derailed by injury at the start of the campaign and has yet to settle in, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.46 WHIP through 13 starts, going 3-7 along the way. Current Dodgers hitters have had success against the left-hander, going a collective 12-for-39 (.308) with an .819 OPS. Behind Rogers is an O's bullpen that doesn't figure to have its long relievers at its disposal due to recent workloads and I think that's concerning as Rogers might not last deep into this ball game. Los Angeles will turn to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's been lights out over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs on three hits over 16 1/3 innings. On the season he owns a 3.37 FIP and 0.84 WHIP. Current O's hitters are just 4-for-30 (.133) with a .490 OPS against him. Los Angeles' bullpen has recorded a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week and might not be called on to eat too many innings here given Yamamoto's ability to work deep into games. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Cubs have now dropped consecutive games after losing the opener of this series last night. I like their chances of bouncing back on Wednesday. Shota Imanaga will take the ball for Chicago. I do think he's too good of a pitcher to continue struggling the way he has. He has been lit up for 12 home runs over his last four starts, yielding 26 earned runs over that stretch. He has faced a difficult slate of opponents over that stretch - not that it's any excuse - in the Brewers, Astros, Cardinals and Athletics, not to mention some adverse weather conditions at Wrigley Field (three of those four outings came at home). On the season, Imanaga still owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and I think he can limit the damage here, noting the Rockies rank 22nd in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Colorado will give another start to Michael Lorenzen. He has quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, logging a 5.11 FIP and a 2.00 WHIP. To the surprise of no one, the decision to join the Rockies and make the majority of his starts at Coors Field has not been a good one. Current Cubs hitters are a solid 10-for-37 (.270) with a .891 OPS against the right-hander with five of those 10 hits going for extra bases. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest as both had a day off on Monday before opening this series last night. We'll certainly give the edge to the Chicago 'pen as it owns a solid 3.51 ERA And 1.23 WHIP on the season compared to Colorado's relief corps, which has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (9*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Pirates dropped consecutive games against the Cubs prior to opening this series against the Twins. They got back on track with a come-from-behind walk-off victory last night and I think that gives them a boost heading into Saturday's contest. We'll see a matchup between two veteran right-handed starters in Bailey Ober for the Twins and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Minnesota has won Ober's last three starts but he has labored through his last two, allowing seven earned runs on 13 hits in just 10 innings of work. He's had some good fortune this season with the hits simply not falling in at the same rate we're accustomed to seeing and that's helped keep his WHIP at a solid 1.10. However, his 4.48 FIP tells a different story. Ober draws a tough matchup here as the Pirates rank top-10 in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and fifth in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.13 and 1.59 on the road. Keller had a couple of rough outings earlier this month but snapped back last time out, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings in a 4-1 win over a surging Blue Jays team. This has been a renaissance year of sorts for Keller so far as he has posted what would be a career-best 3.47 FIP and 1.07 WHIP through 11 outings, logging a 5-2 record along the way. Like the Twins 'pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled but does check in sporting a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a pair of saves converted and none blown over the last week. While the Buccos won by a single run last night, their previous nine victories all came by at least two runs. We'll lay the extra run as the potential is there for a generous return on Saturday. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll take a flyer on the Rockies with an insurance run on Tuesday as they look to get back at the Dodgers after dropping the opener of this series 5-3 last night. This game will feature a battle of left-handed starting pitchers with Kyle Freeland going for Colorado and Eric Lauer making his first start for the Dodgers since joining them by way of the Blue Jays. Freeland has not gotten off to a positive start this season but it's not really anything out of the ordinary. We know what we're going to get from Freeland at this stage of his career. While he does get hit hard often, he's also capable of rising the occasion when you least expect it. On a positive note this year, his strikeout numbers are up considerably - the highest of his career to date at 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. While Colorado is just 2-7 in his nine starts overall, it has gone 4-5 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Lauer wasn't happy with his role on the Blue Jays in the early going this season and as a result they cut ties with the veteran left-hander. After enjoying a renaissance season a year ago, he has settled back in as a very hittable southpaw, logging a 6.90 FIP and 1.49 WHIP through eight appearances this season. Note that current Rockies hitters have had some success against him, going a collective 8-for-24 (.333) with a .777 OPS. The bullpen matchup may not be quite as decisive in Los Angeles' favor as you might think. The Dodgers have four different relievers that have made multiple appearances and thrown at least 27 pitches over the last three days. Colorado's 'pen has been better than expected this year, even if that's not saying much, logging a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 13 saves converted and seven blown. The Rockies certainly won't attract much attention from bettors in this spot, but that's just fine with us as we're being offered a generous price to back them with an insurance run. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Houston at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs have now lost seven straight and 11 of their last 13 games overall but I like their chances of breaking out of their slump and avoiding the series sweep in convincing fashion against the Astros on Sunday. Of note, Houston still ranks 29th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week so it's not as if it has been rolling lately either. The Astros will be facing Cubs starter Shota Imanaga on Sunday. The left-hander is coming off his worst start of the season but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. He still owns a solid 3.38 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Current Astros hitters have just six collective at-bats against him and they've gone 0-for-6 with three strikeouts. Peter Lambert will counter for Houston. It's been an up-and-down campaign for him so far, which is about par for the course. While current Cubs hitters haven't seen a lot of Lambert, what they have seen, they've liked, going 7-for-11 with a pair of home runs and a 1.947 OPS. Lambert has struggled wherever he has pitched for the most part during his five-year big league career, but owns a higher WHIP and lower strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road, as expected. The bullpen matchup favors the Cubs more than you might think. Chicago's 'pen has been among the best in baseball by a lot of metrics this season and checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last week. Most of its high-leverage arms are rested and good to go for this series finale. The same can't be said for the Astros overworked 'pen. It owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.90 and 1.60 on the road. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Padres stayed red hot, taking the opener of this series 1-0 last night. We'll grab the insurance run with San Diego on Tuesday as it looks to move past the mighty Dodgers in the N.L. West standings with a victory in Game 2. Emmet Sheehan will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's off to a mediocre start to the season but it's his career home-away splits that are most concerning. In 20 appearances (18 starts) at Dodger Stadium, Sheehan has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 16 road outings he has logged a 5.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with a 2.8 K:BB ratio. He does own solid numbers against current Padres hitters but we're talking about a very small sample size (15 collective at-bats). No current Padre has seen Sheehan more than twice. Griffin Canning will counter for San Diego. His reputation as a back-of-the-rotation starter precedes him and his numbers through three outings this season are poor to say the last. With that being said, he did turn in his best effort of the campaign last time out as he held the White Sox to one earned run over five economical innings (73 pitches - 42 for strikes). Canning has actually held up well against current Dodgers hitters, holding them to 22-for-91 (.242) with a .770 OPS. He has limited Shohei Ohtani to just one single in seven at-bats. The bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup. The Dodgers 'pen is a little more rested right now but the Padres have the depth to contend in the later innings on Tuesday. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Cubs are reeling right now as they've lost four straight games but it's not the time to panic as they're still 27-16 on the season. I like their chances of taking the Braves down to the wire at the very least on Thursday. Ben Brown will get the start for Chicago. This will be just his second start of the season as he's been used effectively out of the bullpen. His other start came last week as he held the Rangers scoreless over four innings, needing only 46 pitches to get through that outing. On the season, Browns owns a 2.63 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings of work. He'll face a Braves lineup that has cooled off a little, ranking just outside the top-10 in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. While Chicago's bullpen hasn't always been steady this season, it does figure to have all hands on deck after using just one reliever in last night's game. It's a different story for the Braves as their 'pen has been a little overworked lately and this isn't a deep relief corps to begin with. Chris Sale will be tasked with keeping the Cubs bats in check and while they've been slumping in this series, it's worth noting that they rank best in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are just 12-for-50 (.240) with a .765 OPS against Sale but only one of them has seen him more than four times and that's Alex Bregman, who has homered twice in 24 career at-bats against the veteran lefty. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This situation sets up nicely as a bounce-back spot for the Dodgers as they come in reeling off four straight losses. Despite the skid, including losses in the first two games of this series, they still sit six games ahead of the Giants in the N.L. West. It's by no means time to panic in Los Angeles. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday. His pitching has certainly out-paced his hitting so far this season. Last time out he needed fewer than 90 pitches to get through seven innings in a tough loss against the Astros. He's an early N.L. Cy Young contender having logged a 2.52 FIP and 0.81 WHIP through six starts. Current Giants hitters have done little against Ohtani, going a combined 14-for-73 (.192) with a .525 OPS. Of note, Matt Chapman has homered off of him twice (he's the only Giant to register a home run off of Ohtani) but he's mired in a season-long slump with just one dinger to date this season. The Giants rank 28th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Robbie Ray will counter for San Francisco. He's gotten off to a fine start but has faced an incredibly weak slate of opponents. Needless to say he'll be taking a step up in class on Wednesday. While the Dodgers have been slumping, they still rank in the top half of the majors in xwOBA over the last week and top-six in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Current Dodgers hitters have gone 38-for-137 (.277) with a healthy .957 OPS against Ray. Of note, seven different Dodgers have homered off him, to the tune of 11 combined long balls. The Dodgers bullpen is in better shape than the Giants' right now. San Francisco is in danger of being without up to four different relievers on Wednesday due to recent workloads. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Athletics continue to chug along with an above .500 record as they begin a road trip in Philadelphia on Tuesday. They are at somewhat of an advantage here as they were idle on Monday while the Phillies wrapped up their four-game divisional series in a Miami and did so with a second straight victory, albeit by the narrowest of margins 1-0 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The A's will hand the ball to Luis Severino on Tuesday. While the starting pitching matchup figures to favor the Phillies heavily, a closer look indicates otherwise. Severino looked like he was done in 2023 as he posted a 6.14 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 19 appearances with the Yankees. However, he's turned back the clock in the 2+ seasons since. He did get off to a shaky start this year but checks in off arguably his two best starts, holding the Rangers and Royals to just two earned runs on 10 hits over 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that he'll face a Phillies team that ranks 19th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and comfortably in the bottom-third of the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Severino has held current Phillies hitters to 16-for-60 (.267) at the plate with a .812 OPS. Cristopher Sanchez will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't looked right over the last month or so as he has allowed 41 hits over his last 29 innings of work, spanning five starts. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Phillies won one of his outings by more than a single run. They're just 2-5 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line when Sanchez takes the hill this season. The A's have rounded back into form offensively of late, climbing to 12th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Finally, we'll note that the A's figure to have 'all hands on deck' as far as their bullpen goes after an off day on Monday. Their relief corps has been terrific in 18 road games this season, sporting a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Meanwhile, the Phillies 'pen owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just three saves converted and two blown at home. Look for the A's to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

I certainly feel the case could be made for the wrong team being favored in this game. We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres in what projects as an incredibly high-scoring affair in Mexico City. German Marquez takes the ball for San Diego and the common line of thinking is that the surging Diamondbacks offense will feast on the veteran right-hander. However, Arizona ranks just 27th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They've done their feasting predominantly against southpaws. I think Marquez can pitch well enough to keep his team in the game and leave the rest to the Padres terrific bullpen. Speaking of bullpens, the D'Backs relief corps has predictably struggled this season with few good options after Saturday's starter Zac Gallen. Gallen is now three years removed from perennially contending for the N.L. Cy Young Award. He's been very hittable so far this season, allowing 31 base knocks in 25 2/3 innings of work. Through five outings he has recorded a 3.87 FIP to go along with a 1.48 WHIP. We saw the Padres bats wake up late in Thursday's come-from-behind win in Colorado and I think we'll witness some carry-over from that performance as they head to Mexico City where the ball figure to be flying all over the park. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Astros on Friday as they open a series against the Yankees at Minute Maid Park. Houston has under-achieved to be sure this season as it sits at 10-16 on the campaign. It did just deliver a series win in Cleveland, however, and I look for it to build on that positive momentum as it returns home on Friday. This is a tough spot for the Yankees as they stay on the road off a big series sweep over the rival Red Sox. Will Warren will take the ball for New York on Friday. He's been terrific so far this season but much of his success has come at home. For his career, he's really struggled on the road, to the tune of a 2-4 record and a 5.32 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 20 starts. Lance McCullers Jr. will start for Houston. He's been up-and-down so far this season but has certainly shown improvement over the limited work he got in last year. He checks in sporting a 3.98 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Like Warren, he's shown a strong home-road dichotomy, logging a career 3.21 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an impressive 29-16 record at home but a 23-22 mark with a 4.39 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. The Astros bullpen behind McCullers has been much better at home than on the road this season, converting five saves without any blown at Minute Maid Park. Houston also has the advantage of having been idle yesterday so it will be all hands on deck out of the 'pen on Friday. New York's bullpen is really lacking depth right now and we've seen it post a collective 1.52 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work on the road. Take Houston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 2:20 pm et on Thursday.

It may be counter-intuitive to back the Cubs as they look to complete the series sweep of the Phillies on Thursday but that's often the way you have to approach baseball. The fact is, the Phillies are mired in a major slump, falling to 8-16 on the campaign. While they do have one of their best starting pitching options tabbed for Thursday's series finale, I'm not convinced that Cristopher Sanchez's presence alone will lead them out of their slide. Note that the Cubs actually rank second in baseball, behind only the mighty Dodgers, in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They also sit seventh in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. In stark contrast, the Phillies are 30th (last) in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA over the same stretch. Sanchez has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road over the course of his career, sporting a 3.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with a 2.8 K:BB ration away from home compared to a 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 5.4 K:B ratio in his home park. He's a career 20-9 in Philadelphia and 12-14 everywhere else. Not only that but the Cubs have had some success off of Sanchez, with their current hitters going a collective 13-for-48 (.271) with a healthy .822 OPS against him. Edward Cabrera will counter for Chicago. A big off-season acquisition for the Cubs, he hasn't exactly been dominant in the early going but Chicago has still managed to win three of his four starts. He's a career 19-10 starter at home with a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared to an 8-19 road record with a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Current Phillies hitters are 21-for-85 (.247) with a .765 OPS against the right-hander. I do have respect for the Philadelphia bullpen, even if it has struggled lately. With that being said, Chicago's relief corps has been lights out both at home (2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown) and recently (1.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week). We'll grab the insurance run here in what does project as a tightly-contested affair at Wrigley Field. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Athletics had a rough weekend at home against the White Sox, dropping two of three games to fall to 11-11 on the season. I do like their chances of bouncing back on Monday as they head on the road to take on the Mariners, who are also off to a slow start at 10-13. J.T. Ginn will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He has been a better pitcher on the road than at home and that's not overly surprising given the A's play their home games at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Since breaking into the bigs in 20224, Ginn has logged a 5.67 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at home but a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road. He's made five starts so far this season and the A's have won his last four. The current Mariners lineup has only had limited looks at him with no hitter seeing him more than three times. Emerson Hancock will counter for Seattle. He's off to a terrific start this season with a 2.75 FIP and 0.76 WHIP. I can't help but feel regression will be coming for him, however, noting that he still owns a career 4.92 FIP and 1.28 WHIP. He's a career .500 starter at 10-10 including a 6-6 record at T-Mobile Park since his debut in 2023. While the bullpen advantage figures to go go the Mariners, recent form says otherwise as Seattle's relief corps has logged a 6.48 ERA and 2.04 WHIP over the last week. Of note, key relievers Gabe Speier and closer Andres Munoz have worked each of the last two days and may not be available for this one. The A's long relievers have been overworked lately but they should still have plenty of arms available out of the 'pen on Monday. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The White Sox 'are who we thought they were' - at least so far this season. After a promising 4-5 start, Chicago has now lost eight of its last 10 games to fall to a big league-worst 6-13 on the campaign. Even yesterday, in a game the White Sox led entering the ninth inning, they still couldn't hang on for a run-line cover against the Rays at home. The Athletics couldn't secure the series victory against the Rangers, falling by a 9-6 score yesterday. I like their chances of bouncing back here. Davis Martin has posted middling numbers for the White Sox and what little the A's current hitters have seen of him, they have liked, going a collective 4-for-14 (.286) with an .802 OPS and only two strikeouts compared to four walks. Veteran Aaron Civale will get the nod for the A's. I think this is the type of matchup he can navigate. His early returns have been mixed this season as he owns a terrific 1.72 ERA but a 4.25 FIP, albeit with a solid 0.96 WHIP through 15 2/3 innings of work. The bullpen advantage, while not overwhelming, does go the A's way in this one. The White Sox 'emptied the tank' in that regard yesterday, using six different relievers in a losing effort. All eight of their relievers have worked over the last two days with six of them throwing 20+ pitches. Take the Athletics -1.5 runs (8*).

NOTE: Play voided due to pitching change for Colorado.

My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Astros have taken the first two games of this series to turn things around after an extended losing streak. We'll take a flyer on the Rockies with an insurance run in our pocket as they look to avoid the series sweep on Thursday. Tomoyuki Sugano will take the ball for Colorado. While home runs have been a problem in the early going, there are positive signs through three outings as he has allowed fewer hits and walks while recording more strikeouts per nine innings than he did while going 10-10 in 30 starts with the Orioles last year. Keep in mind, Sugano has faced a pretty tough slate of opponents so far this season as well in the Padres, Phillies and Blue Jays. The Astros rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in terms of xwOBA over the last week and 22nd in home runs. Ryan Weiss is slated to make his first big league start for the Astros after five appearances out of the bullpen. He owns a 5.61 FIP And 2.09 WHIP in 11 innings of work and may only be making a cameo appearance here. With that being said, the Astros bullpen has been awful so far this season with a 6.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Their saving grace has been their ability to close out games with five saves converted and none blown. However, their overall numbers indicate the opposition is making a game of it on most nights. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 runs over Boston at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'avoid the sweep' crowd figures to be out in full force backing the Red Sox in this game. We've already taken advantage of that once this season, cashing with the Astros as they wrapped up a series sweep of Boston two weeks ago. We'll do the same with the red hot Twins on Wednesday. Minnesota ranks third in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. It also sits seventh in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and it will face a southpaw starter in Connelly Early of the Red Sox on Wednesday. Early is off to a fine start by some metrics, including a 2.94 FIP through three outings. However, he has allowed 22-of-61 (36%) of batters he has faced to reach base and given how well Minnesota has been hitting, it is likely to take advantage here. Simeon Woods Richardson will counter for the Twins. He doesn't instill a ton of confidence but will be facing a Red Sox club that ranks 24th in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Current Boston hitters have gone a healthy 7-for-22 (.318) but with only a .764 OPS against Woods Richardson. We're talking about a small sample size and only one of those seven hits went for extra bases. Of the nine Red Sox hitters that have seen Woods Richardson, only five have collected a hit and just one has more than one hit (Isiah Kiner-Falefa - a part-time player - is 3-for-4 with three singles). We'll grab the insurance run here as the Twins bullpen has admittedly struggled in the early going this season. While Minnesota's bullpen numbers are gawdy for the most part, it has managed to convert five saves while blowing only one. Take Minnesota +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, marking their second straight victory following an 'upset' win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Sunday. We'll grab the insurance run with the Athletics on Tuesday as I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this A.L. West matchup. MacKenzie Gore will take the ball for Texas. Granted he spent the first four years of his big league career pitching for some bad Nationals teams, Gore owns a career 28-41 record. He's 2-0 this season but draws an incredibly difficult matchup on Tuesday. The A's current hitters have absolutely worn Gore out, albeit in a relatively small sample size, collecting 18 hits in 32 at-bats (.562) wtih a 1.369 OPS. The A's rank eighth in the majors in xwOBA over the last week - 11 spots ahead of the Rangers. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was emerging as an elite southpaw for the Rays before injuries derailed him in back-to-back seasons. He showed signs of returning to form across 30 starts last year and so far, so good here in 2026 as well as he is 2-0 with a 2.53 FIP and 0.76 WHIP. Current Rangers hitters have gone just 12-for-51 (.235) with a .703 OPS against the left-hander. The Rangers do have the better bullpen in this matchup based on early returns this season. However, the A's relief corps has improved lately, postin ga 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown over the last week. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Guardians delivered a blowout win to open this series last night. I look for the Cardinals to put forth a more competitive effort on Tuesday as they look to even this series at a game apiece. Of note, Cleveland has yet to deliver consecutive road wins this season. St. Louis' current three-game slide marks a season-high. Joey Cantillo will take the ball for Cleveland. The left-hander is off to a terrific start this season. Like most young pitchers, he has pitched better at home than on the road over the course of his career. In 74 career innings pitched at home he owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On the road he has logged a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 2.1 K:BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings. The Cardinals, despite their recent struggles, actually check in top-nine in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Note that the Cleveland bullpen continues to be a sore spot in the early going this season and has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 innings of work over the last week. Michael McGreevy will counter for St. Louis. He's off to a similar start to the season as Cantillo. He's been a winner in the early stages of his career, posting a 12-5 mark in 24 big league appearances including 22 starts since 2024. The Cards are 2-0 in his two previous home starts this season. The Guardians rank 18th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis' bullpen got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over the last week, posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, yielding just 16 hits, nine walks and 10 earned runs over 24 innings. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals enter this series off an improbable weekend sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Credit Washington for beating up on Milwaukee pitching and turning in some solid pitching performances of its own in that impressive three-game set. I think its streak will come to an end on Monday, however, as it heads to Pittsburgh to face Paul Skenes and the Pirates. While Pittsburgh failed to complete its own series sweep of the Cubs yesterday, it still has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it returns home sporting a 9-6 record through 15 games. The Nats' will face a tall order on Monday as they go up against Paul Skenes, with many of their hitters seeing him for the first time (their current roster has just nine collective at-bats against him with only one hit). Cade Cavalli is an impressive young starter in his own right for Washington but he's been shaky in the early going this season, allowing 23 of the 62 batters he has faced to reach base, good for a 3.91 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. The Pirates current rank eighth in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Behind Cavalli is a Nats' bullpen that has logged a 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with three saves converted and five blown so far this season. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Brewers bandwagon should be fully cleared after they dropped a second straight game to open this series against the Nationals. I like their chances of bouncing back on Sunday and we're getting a plus-money return to lay the extra run. Zack Littell will take the ball for Washington. I don't think he's a viable big league starter to put it bluntly. Littell's career year as a starter came in 2024 when he went 8-10 with a 3.88 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. Last year he posted a 4.88 FIP and so far this season he has logged a 5.82 FIP through 10 innings of work. The Nationals already thin bullpen will likely be without a pair of options on Sunday with two relievers working each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, it will be all hands on deck for the Brewers bullpen after using just two relievers for a combined 17 pitches last night. Veteran Brandon Woodruff will be tasked with helping Milwaukee end its four-game slide. He showed he still had plenty of tread left on his tires last year, posting a 3.17 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 12 starts, going 7-2 along the way. He hasn't been quite as sharp so far this season but I do expect the veteran right-hander to settle in and like the way this matchup sets up against what projects as one of the weaker lineups in baseball, even if it hasn't necessarily played out that way so far this season. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I think the presence of Jack Leiter on the mound for the Rangers, who is admittedly off to a terrific start, is going to put a lot of bettors off the scent when it comes to the Dodgers run-line on Saturday. Los Angeles out-slugged Texas in a wild 8-7 affair to open this series last night, ending the Rangers three-game winning streak. While Leiter has pitched well, he runs into a Dodgers team that ranks best in baseball in a number of key categories against right-handed pitching this season. The bullpen behind Leiter has held up well in the early going this season but has suffered a drop-off on the road, where it has logged an inflated 1.46 WHIP, allowing far too many hits and walks. Texas wasted a good showing at the plate last night as it ranks 26th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Emmet Sheehan will take the ball for Los Angeles on Saturday. He's off to a rocky start to the campaign but the Dodgers have still managed to win both of his starts. He posted stark home-road splits last year, pitching to the tune of a sub-2.00 ERA in eight starts at Dodger Stadium. I think he does his part to help the Dodgers to a win by margin on Saturday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Detroit -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Twins have gotten the better of the Tigers in this series so far but we'll call for Detroit to answer back on Wednesday. Framber Valdez will get the start for the visiting Tigers. He's off to a fine start with his new club, sporting a 2.24 FIP and 1.08 WHIP and now gets to face a Twins team that perennially struggles against lefties. Minnesota ranks a middling 19th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Bailey Ober counters for the Twins. He has posted a 4.65 FIP and 1.38 WHIP through his first two outings, lasting only eight innings. He figures to have his hands full against a familiar Tigers lineup that ranks top-six in baseball in xwOBA over the last week. While the Tigers bullpen got off to a rough start this season, it has settled in to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and has been call into only 20 innings of action over the last week. The Twins 'pen is entering 'overworked' territory having logged 27 innings over that same stretch, recording a 4.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP along the way. Take Detroit -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not overly interested in laying chalk with the Phillies right now but I do think we're being offered a decent plus-money return to lay the extra run as they look to secure a series win against the Giants on Wednesday afternoon. There's not a lot to choose between two perennially inconsistent starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Tyler Mahle. Early returns do favor Nola this season, however, and I think he can handle a lukewarm Giants offense that ranks 23rd in wOBA and 28th in xwOBA over the last week. The Phillies reside in the top-10 in baseball in both categories over the same stretch. Also, we'll note that Philadelphia's bullpen has been steadier in the early going this season and certainly over the last week as it has logged a 1.74 ERA and 0.63 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over that stretch. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'avoid the sweep' bettors will be out in full force to back the Red Sox on Wednesday as they send their ace Garrett Crochet to the mound against Mike Burrows of the Astros. Interestingly, current Astros hitters have had plenty of success against Crochet, going a combined 20-for-54 (.370) with a healthy .952 OPS. After a slow start to the season, Houston's bats have come alive as they now rank second in baseball in weighted on base average over the last week. The bullpens are a virtual wash based on current form although at least Houston has yet to blow a save (the Red Sox have converted one and blown one). I do think Astros starter Burrows is better than he showed in his debut with his new club against the Angels. Keep in mind, he logged a respectable 4.00 FIP and 1.24 WHIP with the Pirates last season. We'll take a flyer on Houston grabbing an insurance run at a reasonable price here. Take Houston +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

While it may not seem appealing to fade the Phillies coming off back-to-back losses against the Rangers over the weekend, we'll do so while grabbing the insurance run with the Nationals on Monday. Washington had a terrific series against the Cubs to open the season. The Nats' won a lopsided affair yesterday to close out the series victory and they check in ranked fourth in the majors in weighted on base average so far this season. Washington also managed its bullpen well in that season-opening series with none of its relievers having worked consecutive days entering Monday's contest. Philadelphia has yet to get going offensively so I think this is the time to get our licks in fading it. Taijuan Walker takes the ball for the Phillies on Monday and he certainly doesn't inspire confidence. He was effective in the Spring, but made only two appearances. Over the last two seasons, Walker has logged an 8-15 record despite pitching for good Phillies clubs. His numbers were slightly improved last year compared to 2024 but that's not saying much as he still posted a 5.07 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. Foster Griffin gets the start for Washington in what will be his first big league appearance since 2022. He's been pitching in Japan for the last few years, going 18-10 with a 2.57 ERA in north of 300 innings of work. I don't think the Nats' will ask too much of the left-hander in his first regular season back in the bigs, but I do think he can hold the Phillies slumping bats at bay. Take Washington +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs dropped the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion but won in a rout yesterday. I expect more of the same in Sunday's series-finale. Jake Irvin takes the ball for the Nationals. He had a fine Spring but he's never been able to figure it out during the regular season, most recently posting a 5.64 FIP and 1.43 WHIP last season. For his career, he owns an ugly 22-34 record, not surprising considering he pitches for the Nationals but he hasn't done himself any favors either. This isn't an ideal matchup as every current Cub hitter that has seen Irvin has registered at least a hit and as a collective, they're batting .290 with a .916 OPS in 69 career at-bats against him. Shota Imanaga counters for Chicago. He wasn't able to recapture the form that saw him in the running for N.L. Rookie of the Year two years ago in 2025 but I'm confident he'll pitch well for Chicago this season. He logged a 4.86 FIP but a stellar 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts last year and owns a solid 24-11 career record. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Astros have dropped the opening two games of this series but are well-positioned to bounce back on Saturday. Reid Detmers will take the ball for Los Angeles. The left-hander is coming off a fine 2025 season but that was strictly as a reliever as he made 61 appearances and posted a 3.12 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. He had a rough Spring across four outings and it's important to remember that in his last two years as a starter with the Halos he posted a combined 8-19 record with a FIP well over four and a WHIP approaching 1.50. Cristian Javier was only able to make eight starts due to injury last year and posted a 3.65 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He appeared ready for the season in Spring, posting a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 10 2/3 innings of work. Los Angeles has been powered by five home runs in the early going while Houston has mustered just one. We'll call for a reversal of sorts on Saturday. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

This is obviously a critical game for the Dodgers as they look to avoid facing elimination with the series shifting to Toronto for Game 6 (and a potential Game 7). With that said, I think the line is out of whack and will take advantage by grabbing the insurance run with the Blue Jays at a very reasonable price. Blake Snell starts for the Dodgers. While he has pitched well in the postseason, the Jays did reach him for five earned runs on eight hits over five innings in Game 1 of this series. I don't think this is a particularly good matchup for Snell as the Jays are patient at the plate and command has been an issue for the veteran left-hander throughout his career. In short, Toronto will make Snell work. Of note, the Dodgers are just 5-10 in Snell's 15 starts this season when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. This is a huge moment for Jays rookie starter Trey Yesavage. This might be the biggest start he ever makes in a big league uniform, even if it is only his eighth career outing. In four postseason starts he has recorded a 3.40 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. It's advantage Toronto as far as the bullpens go. In this series, the Jays 'pen has posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while the Dodgers relief corps has logged a 4.19 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Reds on Wednesday as they take on Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. Note that Los Angeles has dropped each of Ohtani's last four starts including a 5-2 loss against these same Reds in Cincinnati. Over his last two starts, Ohtani has been tagged for nine earned runs on 14 hits over 8 1/3 innings. Nick Lodolo makes his return to the Reds starting rotation following a stint on the I.L. He was pitching well before he got hurt, including tossing a complete game shutout just three starts back, on the road no less. All told, Lodolo has allowed just four earned runs in his last five big league starts, spanning 29 innings of work. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Diamondbacks on Monday as they look to add to the Brewers woes in Milwaukee. The Brew Crew dropped consecutive games against the Giants over the weekend. Their power has run dry recently as they check in ranked 26th in the majors in isolated power over the last week. In stark contrast, Arizona ranks 11th in that same category over the last week. D'Backs starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been on the mound for four straight wins, allowing just five earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last two outings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff was terrific after returning from injury but has cooled off a bit over his last two starts, allowing three earned runs on nine hits over 8 1/3 innings. He needed 94 pitches to get through only 4 1/3 innings last time out. Finally, we'll note that the D'Backs bullpen has been terrific lately, logging a 2.96 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over the last week. On the road this season, Arizona has converted 21 saves while blowing just 10. The Brewers bullpen has been solid for much of the season but has only managed to convert one save while blowing three over the last week. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the Angels with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound recently. Their last four wins with the left-hander starting have all come by three runs or more while three of their last four defeats with Kikuchi on the hill have come by four or more runs. I like the matchup for Kikuchi here as he looks to rebound off a poor outing against the Athletics on the road. The Angels are 5-1 in his last six home starts and the last time we saw him pitch in Anaheim he allowed just one earned run over six innings against the Rays. Cincinnati ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching this season and 26th in isolated power. Nick Martinez will counter for Cincinnati. He was lit up for five earned runs on nine hits over just 2 2/3 innings last time out. He had been pitching reasonably well prior to that outing but I think that poor performance could stem the tide, noting he owns a 4.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 13 road appearances this season. Note that the Angels are ninth in baseball in isolated power against right-handed pitching this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 11:35 am et on Sunday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Phillies on Sunday as they match up well with Nationals struggling starter Mitchell Parker. Parker checks in having been tagged for a ridiculous 17 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. Off yesterday's poor showing, we can anticipate the Phillies offense bouncing back on Sunday. Aaron Nola will return to the mound for Philadelphia. When we last saw him at the big league level he was struggling mightily back in May, but also dealing with an injury. He looked good in his rehab starts and draws a favorable matchup as he returns against a familiar opponent in the Nationals. Look for Philadelphia to give Nola all the support he needs in a lopsided victory. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

The Giants are coming off a frustrating weekend series against the Nationals as they took the opener in blowout fashion but stumbled in the next two games. We'll back San Francisco on Monday as it looks to take its frustrations out on division rival San Diego. The Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound. He's been fairly sharp at home since returning from injury but not so much on the road. In three road outings, Darvish has allowed 14 earned runs and three home runs in just 12 1/3 innings of work. The Padres lost two of those three games by multiple runs with the lone victory coming in his most recent start in Arizona, and they needed extra innings to get it. Giants ace Logan Webb went through a rough stretch in July but has come out of it, allowing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings while striking out a whopping 21 batters in his last two starts. A perennial All-Star and Cy Young Award contender, Webb owns a terrific 2.53 FIP and 1.25 WHIP this season. While the Giants bats haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball, they're arguably in better form than the Padres'. San Francisco is 18th in the majors in weighted on base average and 20th in isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, San Diego sits in 23rd and 28th in those two categories, respectively, over the same stretch. While the Padres bullpen has been terrific lately, so has the Giants. San Francisco's relief corps has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last week and a 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. Noting that of Webb's 12 team victories this season, eight have come by two runs or more, we'll lay the extra run at a generous price on Monday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics -1.5 runs over Washington at 12:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Nationals bounced back from Tuesday's drubbing at the hands of the A's with a narrow victory last night. I don't think they'll be able to string together a second straight victory on Thursday, however. The A's have hit left-handers hard lately and get a chance to tee off on a struggling one in Nats' starter Mitchell Parker on Thursday. While A's starter Jacob Lopez has had hits ups and downs this season, he hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts, albeit in just 9 1/3 innings. Walks have been an issue but the Nats' are middle-of-the-pack in walk rate over the last week and let's face it, walks aren't going to get it done against this red hot A's offense. Note that Washington sits in the bottom-third of the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week while the A's are top-eight in both categories. Finally, we'll note that the bullpen matchup has been no contest over the last month. The A's 'pen has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Nats' 'pen has recorded a 6.41 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Worse still, Washington's relief corps owns a 10.08 ERA and 2.36 WHIP over the last seven days. Take the Athletics -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Everyone is pretty high on the Mariners right now after they made a big splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to bolster their offense. The moves have certainly paid dividends as Seattle enters this game having won four of its last five including an 8-3 rout to open this series last night. I think this is a good spot to back the White Sox at a generous price with an insurance run, however. Jonathan Cannon will take the ball for Chicago. The White Sox had won each of his last five starts prior to his most recent outing - a 6-3 loss to the Phillies. As bad as things have gone for Chicago this season, it has gone 6-5 with Cannon pitching on the road when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. On the flip side, Mariners starter George Kirby has only posted a 2-5 record at home when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Of note, the White Sox rank second in the majors in isolated power over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Tuesday as they open a series against the Mariners in Seattle. Chicago continues to play some of its best baseball of the season. Unlike the Mariners, all the pressure is off for the White Sox right now. They check in ranked eighth in the majors in weighted on base average and ninth in isolated power over the last week. Mariners All-Star starter Bryan Woo doesn't bring much of an intimidation factor right now. Seattle has lost each of Woo's last four starts. Last time out he gave up five earned runs including four home runs in a 5-4 loss to the A's in Sacramento. In 21 Woo starts this season, the Mariners have won just six games by more than single run. While Davis Martin has been anything but lights out for the White Sox, he continues to battle. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-2 win over a good Phillies team. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 4-0 in Martin's last four outings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. The battle of the bullpens is closer than you might think as well. The Sox 'pen has logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last month, virtually on par with the Mariners' 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Phillies on Sunday night as they look to bounce back following Saturday's 7-5 defeat. Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Cristopher Sanchez as they look to cool off the red hot Tigers bats. Sanchez didn't have his best stuff last time out but still battled through 6 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Prior to that he had given up exactly one earned run in six consecutive starts, lasting at least seven innings in five of those outings. Charlie Morton will counter for Detroit - making his first start since coming over from Baltimore. While the Phillies haven't been all that consistent at the dish lately, they have done a nice job hitting for power, ranking 10th in the majors in isolated power over the last week. That spells trouble for Morton, who has been tagged for 13 earned runs and five home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 18 innings. Both bullpens have had their share of issues lately and overall this season. The opportunity should be there for the Phillies to tack on some late offense as Morton is unlikely to work deep into this ball game, certainly not as likely as Sanchez anyway. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Brewers will go for the series sweep of the Nationals as they look to hand Washington its fifth straight loss on Sunday. I like the Nats' chances of keeping this game competitive at the very least, however. Jacob Misiorowski takes the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost his last two road starts, scoring a grand total of three runs in those contests. Last timeout, Misiorowski needed 80 pitches to get through just four innings against the Cubs. It's not as if Milwaukee's bullpen has been lights out. The Brewers relief corps has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last week. Brad Lord starts for Washington. He's made two starts since being re-installed in the rotation and has given up just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings - the Nationals won both games. I realize the Brewers bats have been red hot but I'm not convinced it's sustainable. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Rays have really been struggling at the plate lately but I think the presence of Marcus Stroman on the mound could help them out on Thursday. Current Rays hitters are a combined 18-for-58 (.310) with a healthy .848 OPS off of the right-hander. Stroman has struggled for the most part this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 1.59 WHIP in eight starts. Meanwhile, Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has posted an 0-4 team record in his last four outings but has at least given his team a chance to win lately, lasting exactly six innings in five straight starts and allowing three earned runs or less in four of those. Current Yankees hitters are just 11-for-59 (.186) with a .577 OPS against him. Finally, we'll note that the Yankees usually sound bullpen has posted a 6.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last month and a 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last week. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Athletics let us down last night as they were defeated in lopsided fashion in the opener of this series in Texas. I do think they're worth backing again on Tuesday, however, as we're being afforded an insurance run at a very generous price. Yes, Jacob deGrom will start for Texas. It's not as if the Rangers have been invincible with the future Hall-of-Famer on the mound this season though. They've actually lost his last two starts and are just 5-5 when he takes the ball at home when factoring in the -1.5 run-line this season. The A's check into this contest ranked 11th in the majors in weighted on base average and number one in isolated power since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit in 29th and 21st in those two categories, respectively, over the same stretch. Also of note, the A's are top-10 in both categories against right-handed pitching this season. J.T. Ginn gets a spot start for the A's. Not a lot will be asked of him as he makes only his fifth start and 12th appearance of the campaign. Of note, the A's bullpen has held its own over the last month, sporting a collective 3.45 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while converting seven saves and blowing only one. Over the same stretch, the Rangers have recorded a 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with only five saves converted and five blown. The 'pens figure to play a role in the outcome here, noting that deGrom has worked beyond the sixth inning just once in his last six starts. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. 

The Pirates took the opener of this series 3-0 last night behind another strong pitching performance from their ace Paul Skenes. I look for them to build off that result in what figures to be a tightly-contested affair on Tuesday at PNC Park. Casey Mize will take the ball for the Tigers. He's 9-3 this season after going 9-19 in his first four big league seasons. Of note, Detroit has covered the -1.5 run-line just once in his last four road starts this year. Mitch Keller figures to be a key trade piece for the Pirates ahead of the trade deadline. He's put together quite an audition for potential suitors, allowing just four earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Keller is having a career year by most metrics having posted a 3.33 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 20 starts. When factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the Buccos are 9-1 in his last 10 starts. The bullpen advantage in favor of the Tigers isn't as pronounced as you might think. Over the last month, the Pirates 'pen actually holds the edge with a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (the Tigers 'pen has recorded a 4.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch). Also of note, the Tigers rank last in baseball in both weighted on base average and isolated power since the All-Star break. It's not that the Pirates have been much better at the plate, but they're not the ones laying an extra run here. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins dropped the opener of this series last night but I look for them to bounce back with a convincing victory on Saturday at Coors Field. Simeon Woods Richardson takes the ball for Minnesota. He's been effectively lately, guiding the Twins to victory in three of his last four starts, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits in 19 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela has been one of the worst starts in baseball for Colorado, logging a 5.50 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The Rockies have lost each of his last three outings as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 15 innings over that stretch. With the Twins ranking inside the top-10 in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last two weeks, we'll call for them to have a big night at the plate on Saturday. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Dodgers have to be thinking about delivering some payback in their first series following the All-Star break. Keep in mind, they were swept in a three-game series in Milwaukee earlier this month - that was when they were mired what turned into a long losing streak. They did shake out of their doldrums in San Francisco last weekend and I look for them to get this series off to a good start on Friday. Quinn Priester will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been quite a story for the Brewers after coming over from the Red Sox in a trade at the start of the season. Priester is 7-2 with a 4.23 FIP and 1.25 WHIP but we've seen the wheels come off a little bit lately as he's allowed nine earned runs in 21 innings over his last four outings. This isn't a favorable matchup for the right-hander as he takes on a Dodgers lineup that ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average and fourth in isolated power against right-handed pitching this season and is in line for a breakout performance returning home following the break. Tyler Glasnow will get his second start since returning from injury for the Dodgers. His first outing came against these same Brewers and he pitched pretty well, logging five innings of two-hit ball, alllowing just one unearned run in an eventual extra innings defeat. I don't think Glasnow will be asked to do too much in his second start back. He does face a Brewers club that cooled off a bit prior to the break and checks in ranked 10th in the majors in wOBA but just 19th in ISO over the last two weeks. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Mariners cruised to a 6-0 win to open this series yesterday. Not much has come easy for Seattle this season, however, and I look for it to face a lot more resistance in Saturday's contest. Rookie Mike Burrows has quietly pitched well for the Pirates this season. Note that Pittsburgh is 5-2 over his last seven starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. He has given up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Luis Castillo counters for the Mariners. He comes off a strong start in Texas but had been struggling prior to that, allowing 14 earned runs in 22 innings over his previous four outings. The Pirates bullpen can hang with the Mariners in my opinion so we'll grab the insurance run in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Orioles have been playing better baseball lately but will enter this series riding a two-game losing streak after dropping back-to-back games in Texas. We'll back them with an insurance run on Friday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Spencer Strider. Morton has quietly turned things around and Baltimore has gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line, winning five of those games outright. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time Morton allowed more than three earned runs. Spencer Strider has been solid for the Braves but I think a lack of run support could bite him here. Note that Atlanta ranks 21st in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, Baltimore checks in fourth and third, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Wednesday as they look to bounce back from last night's blowout loss against the Dodgers. Chicago actually checks in ranked a respectable ninth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The White Sox will step in against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday. They rank 12th in the majors in isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Kershaw has made eight starts this season with the Dodgers winning only half of those games by more than a single run. Sean Burke will counter for Chicago. He enters in good form having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts, covering a span of 10 1/3 innings of work. Behind Burke is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Cubs on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday. Cleveland will hand the ball to Tanner Bibee. While he did pitch reasonably well over six innings in his most recent start, that was at home and the Guardians still lost that game 6-0 against Toronto. Cleveland's offense ranks among the worst in the majors - only Colorado has been worse in terms of weighted on base average over the last week. The Guardians will be up against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga on Wednesday. He was solid over five economical innings (he needed only 77 pitches) in his return from the I.L. last week, allowing just one hit and no earned runs against the Cardinals. Even on an off night at the dish last night, the Cubs still produced five runs and won by three. They rank seventh in baseball in wOBA and fifth in isolated power over the last week. Also of note, Chicago's bullpen owns a collective 0.44 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last week while Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Cubs on Tuesday as they open a series with the Guardians at Wrigley Field. Chicago checks in off a loss while Cleveland has dropped four games in a row. While the Guardians do sit in second place in the A.L. Central, they've been a big disappointment this season. Of note, they've been outscored by 47 runs overall this season while the Cubs have outscored the opposition by 104 runs - only the Yankees have been better in that department. Chicago also owns the starting pitching advantage in this game with left-hander Matthew Boyd going against Gavin Williams of Cleveland. Boyd is on a terrific run right now having allowed just six earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 36 1/3 innings of work. Behind Boyd is a Cubs bullpen that has been lights out lately, posting a sparkling 0.40 ERA and 0.63 WHIP over the last week. In stark contrast, the Guardians 'pen owns an 8.85 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

Athletics starter Jacob Lopez hasn't gotten enough credit for his recent stretch. He's faced the Royals, Astros and Tigers in succession and has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work and that's with two of those starts coming on the road. Given the way he's settled in, I look for the A's to hang tough at Steinbrenner Field on Monday. Drew Rasmussen has admittedly pitched well for the Rays this season. With that being said, he hasn't lasted beyond 5 1/3 innings in any of his last three starts and the Rays are just 2-2 over his last four outings when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Note that Tampa Bay's bullpen has imploded lately, sporting a 9.33 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last week - leaving the back door wide open should we need it with the insurance run in our back pocket. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I look for them to give the Giants all they can handle again on Wednesday. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back San Francisco with its ace Logan Webb on the mound. As good as Webb has been this season, the Giants have won just one of his last six starts by more than a single run. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera held a tough Phillies lineup to just one earned run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out and the Marlins are 6-4 in his last 10 outings with all four of those losses coming by a single run. In what projects as a low-scoring affair and with the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll grab the insurance run with the visiting Marlins. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Friday as they look to bounce back following last night's extra innings defeat against the Athletics in Sacramento. That was an up-and-down series for Houston but I look for it to settle in on Friday night in Anaheim. The pitching matchup favors the Astros heavily with Hunter Brown taking the ball against Yusei Kikuchi. Brown has been terrific this season, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been all over the place with a 3.05 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Houston has absolutely torched southpaw pitching this season and I think it does more than enough to cover the run-line in this spot. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Rockies in the opener of this N.L. West series on Friday. The case can be made that the Rockies are playing better than the Diamondbacks right now. Off a winning series in Washington and off a hard-fought extra innings loss in yesterday's series finale, we'll call for Colorado to rebound at home on Friday. Zac Gallen has not been good for the D'Backs this season, posting a 4.90 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while going 4-8 in 15 starts. Behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been even worse than Colorado's, including of late as it has logged a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies. He had a productive season debut last week, going five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Look for a competitive affair on Friday at Coors Field. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Mets are reeling right now and there's really no end in sight with this difficult series in Philadelphia followed by another series against the Braves, who just handled them easily. New York is in another tough spot on Friday as it goes up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Since a rough outing at home against the Braves on May 29th, he's settled down, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits while striking out 16 and walking just one in 12 innings over his last two starts. On the season, Wheeler owns Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.76 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. New York will turn to Blade Tidwell for his second start. His first one didn't go well at all as he was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. New York has precious few options on the mound right now noting that its bullpen has also struggled to the tune of a 5.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last week. Phillies roll. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a back-and-forth series so far with the Rays most recently rallying from an early 8-0 deficit to take last night's contest in what was a wild affair at Steinbrenner Field. We'll call for the Orioles to bounce back on Thursday and will grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Charlie Morton takes the ball for Baltimore. He's settled down since returning to the starting rotation, allowing just six earned runs in 20 innings of work. Of those six earned runs, four of them came in a start against the Athletics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Of note, Morton has allowed just one home run in his last four outings. Drew Rasmussen got off to a red hot start for the Rays this season but has shown some possible signs of regression over his last two starts. Last time out he lasted only five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, against the Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Now he starts on short rest (four days) against an Orioles lineup that has shown some life lately. While the O's bullpen is usually a concern, they have held up reasonably well lately, sporting a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres at a reasonable price on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Stephen Kolek will start for San Diego. He's had a rocky season so far, logging a 4.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. With that being said, he has held the opposition to just under 3.9 runs per nine innings and while the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns terrific overall numbers and has been pressed into duty for just 19 1/3 innings over the last week so the arms should be relatively fresh for this one. The Dodgers will give Emmet Sheehan his first start of the season after he missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Sheehan delivered mixed results in his rookie season in 2023 and draws a tough first assignment against a Padres club that will be desperate to bounce back following consecutive defeats to open this series. While the Dodgers bullpen behind Sheehan has been good, it has also worked nearly 30 innings over the last week so fatigue could become an issue in the coming days. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the first two games of this series and mired in an incredible hitting slump, I look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday. Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for the Angels. He checks in sporting a lofty 5.62 FIP And 1.59 WHIP. Note that New York is top three in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Ryan Yarbrough counters for New York. He sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and has allowed 2.5 fewer hits and 1.1 fewer walks per nine innings while also striking out 2.0 more batters compared to Kochanowicz. Of note, the Angels rank next-to-last in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees bullpen having posted a 0.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week, we'll confidently lay the extra run with New York in this spot. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I don't see any considerable advantage for the Dodgers in this matchup, not enough to warrant such a reasonable price to grab an insurance run with the visiting Giants. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back from last night's beatdown and I look for them to at the very least take this one down to the final at-bat. Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Their numbers have been almost identical this season although Harrison has allowed slightly fewer hits and walks per nine innings while also striking out 0.9 more batters per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash in terms of recent form and the Giants relief corps has been significantly better on the road than the Dodgers 'pen has been at home this season. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves exploded late in an eventual blowout win over the Rockies to open this series last night. We'll call for Atlanta to beat up on Colorado again on Saturday afternoon. The Rockies bullpen is a mess right now having posted an 11.42 ERA and 2.08 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while needing to work only 13 innings over that same stretch. The starting pitching matchup favors the Braves here as well. While Spencer Strider hasn't been at his best since returning from injury he still owns better numbers than Rockies starter Chase Dollander. Note that Dollander has allowed a whopping 7.5 runs per nine innings in 10 starts (to go along with a 6.30 FIP and 1.55 WHIP). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the run-line with the Braves on Friday as they open a series against the Rockies at home. Colorado is fresh off a come-from-behind 8-7 walk-off win over San Francisco yesterday. There are still major concerns when it comes to this cellar-dwelling club, however. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies on Friday. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.68 WHIP and has allowed a ridiculous 7.9 runs per nine innings in 13 starts. Bryce Elder certainly hasn't been great for the Braves, but he's been considerably better than Marquez with a 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 4.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks while striking out 1.8 more per nine innings this season. The bullpen edge goes to the Braves as well. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over the last week while the Rockies relief corps owns a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Thursday as they wrap up their series with the White Sox in Houston. Chicago will hand the ball to Davis Martin as he makes his 13th start and 14th appearance of the season. Martin hasn't been terrible but that's about where the compliments end. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing 4.1 runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He has recorded a 3.08 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.1 runs per nine frames. The Astros have a considerable edge in terms of the bullpen matchup as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last week compared to the White Sox 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the season, Chicago has converted just three saves while blowing five on the road while Houston has converted 11 and blown only 1 at home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series and I expect them to complete the sweep in convincing fashion on Thursday. Hayden Birdsong gets his fifth start (16th appearance) of teh season for the Giants. He's been serviceable to be sure this season, logging a 3.60 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding just a shade over 3.6 runs per nine innings. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela checks in sporting an inflated 5.39 FIP and 1.97 WHIP while giving up north of 7.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest with the Giants relief corps having posted a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with three saves converted and one blown over the last week. Colorado's 'pen owns an ugly 9.35 ERA and 1.96 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Giants run-line last night as they rallied for a 6-5 victory at Coors Field. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday, however, as San Francisco holds an even bigger pitching advantage. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Giants. He's enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts having posted a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland who owns a respectable 3.55 FIP but a 1.54 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on current form. Giants relievers have combined to log a 1.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown (while working only 22 1/3 innings) over the last week. The Rockies 'pen has recorded a 7.01 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with one save converted and two blown over that same stretch (and they've been pressed into duty for 25 2/3 innings). Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound against rookie Carson Palmquist as they open a divisional series in Denver on Tuesday. Harrison has been quietly effective since returning to the Giants rotation, logging a 3.55 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Palmquist as he has worked 18 big league innings, posting a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP while yielding a whopping 8.0 runs per nine frames. As you would expect, the bullpen advantage goes to the Giants as well as their relief corps has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last week (and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season) while the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (and a 4.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only four saves converted and four blown at home) over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the White Sox in the first five innings on Tuesday as they open a series in Houston. Shane Smith has been quietly effective starting for Chicago this season, posting a 3.52 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. While Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched well lately, he still owns a pedestrian 3.93 FIP and 1.40 WHIP on the campaign and gives up just under 5.2 runs per nine frames. While there's no advantage in terms of the bullpen, we'll stick to the first five innings and back the White Sox to stay on level terms. Take Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Washington +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The argument can certainly be made that the Nationals have the starting pitching advantage in this contest with MacKenzie Gore taking the ball against Griffin Canning of the Mets. Gore checks in with a terrific 2.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP and gives up just under 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season. Meanwhile, Canning has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Admittedly, Canning has limited the damage, allowing just 3.2 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is pretty much even based on current form and as a whole, the Nationals relief corps has struggled this season so we'll back Washington plus the half-run in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Washington +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Orioles have been playing better lately, I expect them to struggle - at least in the early stages - of Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. Detroit will give Brant Hurter a start, likely in an 'opener' role. Hurter has been terrific for Detroit this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up less than 1.9 runs per nine innings. Cade Povich will counter for Baltimore. While he's shown some improvement lately he still owns a 4.26 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the campaign, having allowed just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. By grabbing the half-run with the Tigers in the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a suddenly red hot Orioles bullpen. The Baltimore relief corps has logged a sparkling 0.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over the last week. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox answered back after dropping the opener of this series but I look for a response from the Yankees, at least in the early going in Sunday night's series finale. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific this season, recording a 2.93 FIP and 0.93 WHIP, firmly planting him in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is still early. Rodon has allowed just over 2.7 runs per nine innings. Hunter Dobbins will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.38 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage does go to the Red Sox based on current form so we'll stick with laying the half-run in the first five innings only with the Yankees. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels on Sunday afternoon. George Kirby gets the start for the visiting Mariners. He's been downright awful since returning from injury, logging a 5.63 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in three starts. Over that stretch he has allowed a ridiculous 8.6 runs per nine innings. Tyler Anderson counters for Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 4.98 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Anderson has allowed just a shade over 4.4 runs per nine frames which is about par for the course for the veteran left-hander. The bullpen advantage goes to the Angels based on current form as they've posted a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last week compared to the Mariners' 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants delivered a walk-off win for us yesterday thanks to Matt Chapman's ninth inning two-run home run. We'll back San Francisco again on Sunday, this time grabbing the insurance run. Landen Roupp will start for the Giants. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the campaign, allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He owns a 6.38 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has given up just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. We'll give the bullpen advantage to the Giants based on recent form as they've posted a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last week compared to the Braves' 6.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (with no saves converted and two blown over that stretch). Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll once again back the Mets and lay the half-run in the first five innings at a price that I believe should be even higher. Tylor Megill takes the ball for New York. He's been quietly effective in 12 starts this season, logging a 3.12 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while yielding just under 4.4 runs per nine innings. While that last number is not impressive at all, consider Rockies starter Chase Dollander has given up north of 6.9 runs per nine innings to go along with a 5.97 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. The bullpen advantage isn't nearly as obvious as it may seem so we'll stick with the first five innings once again. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games in this series as their offense has run dry, scoring just a single run in those contests. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles in the first five innings as it hands the ball to a struggling Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw owns a 5.43 FIP and 1.66 WHIP in four starts since returning from injury. He has allowed over 6.3 runs per nine innings. Michael McGreevy makes just his second appearance for the Cardinals after a nice long relief stint of 5 1/3 innings. While he's likely to have a short leash in this one, I expect St. Louis' bats to get to Kershaw and at least keep this one level after five frames. Take St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

After a wild game between these two teams yesterday we'll call for things to settle down and for the Rays to hold a lead after five innings on Sunday afternoon. Drew Rasmussen has been lights out for the Rays so far this season, logging a 3.29 FIP and 0.87 WHIP. While the Tampa Bay bullpen has been strong as well, this particular matchup is a virtual wash based on current form so we'll stick with the first five frames only. Note that the Marlins will give the start to likely 'opener' Anthony Veneziano. He owns a 5.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP so far this season (in 21 appearances). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

While the Orioles own the bullpen advantage based on recent form, it's the Athletics that should be able to hang tough early with Luis Severino taking the ball against Charlie Morton. Severino has posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season and while he has struggled at home, I do think he can figure it out over time. Morton comes off a couple of quality outings but still owns a 5.24 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and has allowed more hits, walks and home runs per nine innings compared to Severino this season. In fact, Morton is allowing north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. Take the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Mets laying the half-run in the first five innings at Coors Field on Saturday as we're being offered a price that should be even higher in my opinion. Clay Holmes gets the start for New York. He owns a 3.88 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has allowed just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's a much different story for Rockies rookie Carson Palmquist. He owns a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in four starts, yielding a whopping 9.0 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup is much closer than you might think based on recent form so we'll stick with the 'first five innings' here. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Nationals took the opener of this series last night but we'll call for the Rangers to answer back behind their ace, Jacob deGrom, on Saturday. DeGrom has logged a 3.64 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.3 runs per nine innings. Mitchell Parker takes the ball for Washington. He owns a 4.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP and while he has pitched better at Nationals Park, I think the Rangers lineup is in line for a bounce-back performance here. Note that the Nationals bullpen has been awful all season at home and owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week. Over the same stretch, the Rangers 'pen has posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

The Rockies rose up and swept the Marlins in a road series earlier this week but I expect their success to be short-lived. We'll lay the extra run with the Mets in the first five innings on Friday night at Coors Field as they own a considerable starting pitching advantage. Kodai Senga will take the ball for New York. He owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings so far this season. That's in stark contrast to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela. The veteran right-hander owns a 5.41 FIP and 1.98 WHIP and has allowed 8.1 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is actually less decisive than you might think, certainly in terms of recent form. We'll stick to the first five innings run-line as a result. Take New York -1.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Pirates as they look to rebound following a tough series against the Astros. The Phillies are licking their own wounds after consecutive bad series' against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Joe Ross will take the ball for Philadelphia on Friday. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 29 innings of relief work this season, allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has been more effective, posting a 4.06 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash both in terms of recent form and home-road splits this season. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox as they head to the Bronx to face the Yankees on Friday. The starting pitching matchup features Walker Buehler for the Sox and Will Warren for the Yankees. While Warren started hot, he's faded recently. On the season he owns a 3.12 FIP but a 1.42 WHIP and has given up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Buehler has logged a 4.73 FIP and 1.31 WHIP but has yielded just 4.4 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on recent form. The Sox 'pen has posted a sparkling 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over the last week and has also held up well on the road this season with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Yanks relief corps' has posted a 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last week and owns a collective WHIP north of 1.30 at home this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We want to steer clear of the Yankees fading bullpen right now (8.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over the last week) but we will back New York laying a half-run in the first five innings as it has a decisive starting pitching advantage. Max Fried is having a phenomenal first season with the Bronx Bombers. He has posted a 2.87 FIP and 0.97 WHIP through 12 outings. Contrast that with Guardians highly-touted prospect Slade Cecconi (who came over in the Josh Naylor trade) who has posted a 6.07 FIP and 1.44 WHIP and has been at his worst over his last couple of starts. We'll look to avoid a strong Guardians bullpen that has logged a 1.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last week. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.

There's very little separating these two clubs right now and not surprisingly they've split the first two games of this series. We'll grab the insurance run with the Blue Jays in Thursday's matinee series finale. The two starting pitchers are almost carbon copies of one another with Jesus Luzardo going for the Phillies against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt does bring better current form into this start with Luzardo having allowed a ridiculous 12 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers. Philadelphia has lost his last two starts. The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto as it has logged a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven days. Philadelphia's 'pen checks in sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over that stretch. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets took the opener of this series on Monday before the Dodgers answered last night. Both games have been incredibly tight. We'll call for another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday and grab the insurance run with the visiting Mets. Let's get the bullpens out of the way first. It's a virtual wash in terms of current form. In general the Mets 'pen has been solid on the road with a 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with eight saves converted and four blown. That's an identical save ratio compared to the Dodgers at home. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Wednesday. He's quietly putting together a solid campaign having posted a 4.07 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while limiting the damage allowing just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has returned form injury to post a 6.01 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in six starts, yielding 5.2 runs per nine innings. Take New York +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Orioles on Tuesday night. Baltimore will give the start to Tomoyuki Sugano. He checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP but a much better 1.06 WHIP through 11 starts. It's been a rough go for Mariners starter George Kirby since making his debut after a stint on the I.L. Kirby owns a 7.46 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through two outings. Seattle's bullpen behind Kirby hasn't been good lately, posting a 6.65 ERA and 1.78 WHIP with three blown saves over the last seven days. While the O's 'pen has only managed to record a 4.70 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch it did convert three saves while blowing only one. Also of note, the O's 'pen has logged just 15 1/3 innings over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels as they send Yusei Kikuchi to the hill against Brayan Bello of the Red Sox on Tuesday. Kikuchi has posted a 4.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season. While those numbers aren't great, they're better than what Bello is offering with a 5.05 FIP and 1.63 WHIP. The two bullpens are a virtual wash over the last week with one exception, that being the fact that Red Sox relievers have logged just shy of 28 innings, entering overworked territory (the Angels 'pen has pitched just 21 1/3 innings over that stretch). Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is trending in the wrong direction right now. Going back to April 27th, Parker has allowed 6, 5, 4, 4, 3 and 4 earned runs over his last six starts, lasting more than five innings in just one of those outings. While the Diamondbacks have dropped the first two games of this series, their offense did wake up late in last night's game, scoring seven runs to at least make things respectable after digging an inexplicable 10-run deficit in the first inning. Corbin Burnes will be tasked with the job of helping stop the D'Backs slide on Sunday and I like his chances of doing so. Burnes has posted a sub-2.00 ERA at home this season and despite an 0-2 team record in his last two outings, is in good form having allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight starts. I also like the fact that Burnes is capable of working deep into games (he's lasted seven innings in three of his last four outings), perhaps giving some relief to Arizona's struggling bullpen (the Nats haven't been much better in that department). We'll lay the extra run with the Snakes. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers starting pitching woes have bitten them in the first two games in this series. Last night, Clayton Kershaw made his long-awaited return to the mound and struggled as the Angels took a second straight game to open this series.

The good news is, the Dodgers will be handing the ball to Tony Gonsolin for his fourth start of the campaign on Sunday. The right hander has seemingly regained his form, logging a 2.85 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, most recently silencing a red hot Diamondbacks lineup, on the road no less, over five innings in an 8-1 victory last weekend. Note that current Angels hitters are a woeful 9-for-42 (.214) with a .671 OPS against Gonsolin.

Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers as well as they rank second in the majors in bullpen xFIP this season while the Angels sit in 25th.

Finally, I'll point out that current Dodgers hitters are a healthy 28-for94 (.298) with an .878 OPS against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi. He's gotten off to a disastrous start with his new team this season, posting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while going 0-4 in nine outings. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Clay Holmes has turned out to be quite an acquisition for the Mets. Since opening the season with a 3-1 loss in Houston, Holmes has recorded a perfect 7-0 team record in his last seven starts with the last six wins all coming by at least two runs. It's easy to forget that he was an All-Star selection as a reliever with the Yankees in two of the last three seasons, including last year. So far this season, Holmes has made a successful conversion to starter, logging a 2.61 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Note that current Pirates hitters have gone just 4-for-20 (.200) against him with a .704 OPS (thanks in large part to a home run off the bat of Andrew McCutchen.

Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh on Wednesday. He's been terrific over his last two starts but both of those came at home. On the season he's 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home but 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA on the road. Falter owns a career 4.55 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Current Mets hitters are a healthy 21-for-74 (.284) with a .752 OPS against him.

While the Mets rank top-five in the majors in weighted on base average this season the Pirates check in 29th - ahead of only the White Sox. It's a similar story in terms of bullpen xFIP - one of our other favorite metrics - with the Mets ranking fifth in baseball and the Pirates 22nd. After a tightly-contested affair last night, look for New York to open things up on Wednesday. Take New York -1.5 runs.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers find themselves in an unfamiliar spot — trailing in the N.L. West and mired in a rare slump with losses in four of their last five games. However, Saturday presents a strong opportunity to get back on track. Mitch Keller will toe the rubber for the Pirates and while he's a capable arm, he's consistently allowed traffic on the basepaths this season, posting a 3.92 FIP and 1.36 WHIP across 28 innings. His career numbers against the Dodgers are concerning as well, with current L.A. hitters batting .287 with a robust .892 OPS against him, including four different players having already taken him deep.

Roki Sasaki gets the start for Los Angeles and seems to be finding his rhythm, coming off a sharp outing against a tough Texas lineup where he allowed just two earned runs on two hits over six innings (needing only 78 pitches to do so). Facing a Pirates offense that's cooled off over the last couple of games should help him continue to build confidence.

Importantly, the Dodgers also hold a significant edge in the bullpen, with a top-five ranking in xFIP compared to the Pirates' 19th. Expect L.A.'s lineup to finally break out against Keller and for Sasaki and the bullpen to hold the Bucco bats in check.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Pirates 2.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This sets up as a favorable get-right spot for the Dodgers, who enter the finale having cooled slightly at the plate but still rank second in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching and remain top-10 in offensive production over the last week. That’s important against Nationals starter Jake Irvin, who has been shaky out of the gate with a 6.87 FIP and 1.70 WHIP across 10 innings and showed similar vulnerability over a much larger sample last season. Dodgers bats have fared well against Irvin historically, going 19-for-57 (.333) with a strong .886 OPS.

Los Angeles will counter with Landon Knack, making his first start of the season. Knack has pitched only two innings so far this year, but was effective, allowing just one of seven batters to reach. He’s not being asked to eat innings, which plays into the strength of the Dodgers bullpen, which currently ranks third in MLB in xFIP. That’s a stark contrast to a Nationals bullpen that ranks 29th, ahead of only Colorado.

Washington has been swinging the bats better lately but still finds itself outmatched in every phase of the game here. With the Dodgers enjoying the clear edge both on the mound and at the plate, I expect them to take control and cruise to a multi-run win.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 7, Nationals 3.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Atlanta at 10:10 pm ET on Monday.

The Braves are struggling at the plate, ranking ahead of only the Twins in weighted on-base average early in the season. Coming off a four-game sweep in San Diego, this isn't the ideal spot for them to turn things around, especially against Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow had an excellent but injury-shortened 2024 campaign, posting a 2.90 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. He has dominated the current Braves lineup, limiting them to just 11 hits in 62 at-bats (.177) with a .507 OPS. Notably, Atlanta hitters have managed only three extra-base hits (all doubles) against him in that span.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers enter this matchup red-hot, and I expect them to take advantage of an Atlanta team that has yet to find its rhythm offensively. Given the starting pitching edge and the way Los Angeles is swinging the bats, I'll confidently lay the extra run.

Take Los Angeles -1.5. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Braves 3.

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves have dropped the first two games of this series, but both contests were tightly contested. I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion on Saturday behind a strong effort from Spencer Schwellenbach. The young right-hander put together a promising rookie campaign last season, posting a 3.29 FIP and 1.04 WHIP across 21 starts. He carried that momentum into the spring, logging a 3.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 21 innings of work. While he has limited exposure to Padres hitters, they have struggled in a small sample, going just 4-for-23 (.174) with a .435 OPS against him. Atlanta’s bullpen is also in relatively good shape, with only Dylan Lee having worked the first two games of the series, and his workload (21 pitches) was light enough that he could be available again on Saturday.

San Diego will send Randy Vasquez to the mound, and while he showed flashes of potential last season, he’ll be facing a Braves lineup that has had success against him in the past. Current Atlanta hitters have gone 11-for-39 (.282) with five extra-base hits and a .795 OPS against Vasquez, suggesting they match up well against him. Additionally, the Padres' bullpen has been worked hard in the first two games of this series, with three key relievers having pitched in both contests, each throwing over 35 pitches. That could leave San Diego vulnerable late in the game if Vasquez isn’t able to pitch deep. Look for the Braves to capitalize on their edge both on the mound and at the plate as they snap their mini skid in dominant fashion.

Take Atlanta -1.5 runs. Projected score: Atlanta 6, San Diego 3.

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Detroit at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the way this matchup sets up for the Astros as they send Hunter Brown to the hill against Tyler Holton of the Tigers in what amounts to a 'bullpen game' from Detroit.

Brown has held current Tigers hitters to just 17-for-64 (.266) at the plate with one home run and an OPS of .672. The young right-hander turned in a terrific regular season, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.27 WHIP in 30 starts.

While the Tigers bullpen has been solid, they did have to use four relievers in yesterday's series-opening victory.

Note that Detroit ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days while Houston sits 10th. Rather than lay the heavy chalk, we'll lay the extra run with Houston. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants have lit up the Diamondbacks through the first two games of this series but I look for Arizona to answer back on Wednesday night.

While San Francisco does rank sixth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, it's not as if Arizona is far behind, ranking eighth over that stretch.

Mason Black will get the start for the Giants on Wednesday. San Francisco has lost three of his last four starts and he owns a 5.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP on the campaign.

Zac Gallen counters for Arizona. While he hasn't necessarily had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, the D'Backs have kept on winning with him on the mound. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill. Current Giants hitters are just 25-for-115 (.217) with a .642 OPS against him. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers won on a Shohei Ohtani walk-off grand slam last night, saving their run-line backers on the game's final pitch. I look for Saturday's result to be a little more straight-forward as Los Angeles sends Clayton Kershaw to the hill against Taj Bradley of Tampa Bay.

Kershaw is locked in right now, having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts. On the season he has posted a 3.00 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, making only five starts to date. I see that as a positive as he has a live arm down the stretch. Of course, it helps that the Dodgers bullpen will have all hands on deck after using just three relievers for 35 pitches last night (and following an off day on Thursday). Kershaw will be happy to be facing the Rays as he's held their current hitters to just six hits in 32 at-bats (.188) with a .438 OPS.

Bradley is approaching his career-high in innings pitched (he'll likely eclipse that mark on Saturday). We've seen him sputter lately, allowing a whopping 18 earned runs over his last four outings. Note that Tampa Bay lost all four of those contests with each defeat coming by at least three runs. Current Dodgers hitters are 4-for-14 (.286) off of Bradley with a .714 OPS. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Mets are hitting right now and that was on full display in last night's series-opening win here in San Diego. The Padres have been hot at the plate as well, however, and I look for them to bounce back on Friday night.

Paul Blackburn gets the start for New York. A key piece brought over prior to the trade deadline, he's been mostly effective in his four starts since joining the Mets. However, it's worth noting that he's faced the Angels, Rockies, A's and Marlins. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-21 (.333) off of Blackburn with a .745 OPS. San Diego ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days.

Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He continues to get stretched out after being on the I.L. for a couple of months. In two starts since rejoining the rotation, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. Current Mets hitters are 26-for-121 (.215) off of the veteran right-hander with a .663 OPS.

Perhaps no team boasts as deep of a bullpen as the Padres and they look like they'll have all hands on deck after using just two relievers last night. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds cruised to victory in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.

Carson Spiers gets the start for Cincinnati. The wheels have come off a little bit over his last three starts as he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings pitched. The Jays have actually been heating up at the plate lately, checking in 12th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (that's just one spot behind the Reds).

Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. He has allowed one earned run in seven innings in three of his last four outings. Berrios owns terrific career numbers against current Reds hitters as they've gone 11-for-46 (.239) off of him with a .553 OPS.

The Jays bullpen enters in better shape as the Reds relief corps includes three pitchers that have thrown 30+ pitches over the last three days. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Braves starter Charlie Morton made his big league debut back in 2008. He can navigate a rough stretch at this stage of the season and it's worth noting that he's pitched just 114 2/3 innings so far this year - this after working 140+ innings in six of the last seven seasons. In other words, I still think there's plenty of life in his arm and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back from a miserable outing against the Brewers last week. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from allowing no earned runs over six innings in a 4-2 victory over the Marlins. The Giants have been considerably weaker offensively against right-handed pitching compared to left-handed this season, ranking 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average vs. righties.

The Braves have climbed inside the top-10 in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching (at the time of writing) and they'll face another one in Kyle Harrison on Tuesday. Also note that Atlanta ranks top-three in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (also at the time of writing). Harrison has eclipsed the 100-inning mark in his sophomore campaign (he worked only 34 2/3 big league innings last year). Over Harrison's last two starts he has given up eight earned runs on 11 hits over 8 1/3 innings. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).