My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Bengals have enjoyed tremendous success over the course of the last two seasons and will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second straight year on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect them to fall short. The Chiefs got a scare last Saturday when Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a devastating ankle injury early in the game against the Jaguars. Mahomes would ultimately return and Kansas City gutted out a tough 27-20 win over a game Jacksonville squad. I actually think the Chiefs are better for it after going through their share of adversity in that game. To say that this Kansas City squad is seasoned for this type of environment would be an understatement. The core of this team has seen it all and been here before (multiple times), most notably the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I'm confident that all three will play a significant role in booking a ticket back to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Last week, Cincinnati was able to overcome its significant absences on its offensive line. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate, at least not when a big play is needed late. The Chiefs defense certainly doesn't get enough credit in the shadow of Mahomes and the team's explosive offense. While it will undoubtedly have its hands full with an elite Bengals offense here, I believe this is a group that expects to come up with that big play late, just as we saw last Saturday when it secured a critical interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is capable of contributing his share of big plays on the offensive side of the football. Unlike last week when the Bengals benefited from facing a mistake-prone Bills offense, this time around they'll likely need to make their own breaks as Kansas City takes care of the football (only two turnovers in its last four games - both in Week 17 against Denver). I simply feel the Chiefs are the superior team and the fact that we're being asked to lay less than a field goal with them at home, in this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game (which they lost) is a bargain. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday.

Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'.

San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it.

To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here.

While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion).

QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here.

The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests.

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there.

The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible.

Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here.

The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards.

Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards.

The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here.

As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points first half over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I see this as a 'shock to the system' spot for the Cowboys after closing out the regular season with games against Josh Dobbs and the Titans and Sam Howell and the Commanders. Neither of those quarterbacks instilled much fear in the Cowboys defense but this is a much different situation on Monday as they go against Tom Brady and an 'as healthy as its been all season' supporting cast of weapons. To be honest, I'm not all that confident in putting this game into the hands of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Raheem Morris and their decision-making in the second half. Instead, we'll back the Bucs with a one-point cushion in the game's first 30 minutes, noting that Tampa Bay has led 21-16 and 12-3 in the two previous meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season and was also tied or leading in three of its final four regular season contests. Take Tampa Bay first half (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime.

Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half.

Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot.

I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes.

It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The coaching change seemed to provide the Broncos with a spark last week as they fell just short in a near-upset in Kansas City. Here, I look for them to snap their two-game skid, while also wrecking Los Angeles' four-game winning streak in the process. This is a game Denver has almost certainly had circled on its calendar since dropping a tough 19-16 decision in a Thursday night game in Los Angeles back in mid-October. While it remains to be seen how much or if Chargers starters will play in this game, the Broncos do have most of their offensive weapons at their disposal. Of course, I use that term 'weapons' somewhat lightly given how they've performed with QB Russell Wilson running the show this season. Nevertheless, I like this spot fading the Chargers after they clinched a playoff berth last week. Take Denver (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll take this opportunity to fade the injury-riddled Rams one more time on Sunday as they return home on a short week to host the Broncos. Denver's defense should feast on a depleted Rams offense that is now without WR Ben Skowronek in addition to all of the key contributors they were previously missing, particularly on the offensive line. While I'm by no means high on the Broncos offense, I do believe they can find plenty of open field against Los Angeles here. The Rams seemingly gave their backers some false hope with that come-from-behind home win over the Raiders two-plus weeks ago. I think we saw something closer to the real Rams in their current state in Monday's ugly road loss against the Packers. Returning home where there might be as many Broncos fans as Rams fans in the stands, we'll back the visitors here. Take Denver (8*).

AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*).

TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*).

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While I would prefer to be in on this one at the opener, I still expect the Jets to come away with a double-digit victory, so I'll lay the touchdown on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. Should Justin Fields end up playing, we'll see this line come down in which case I would elevate this to a 9* play. The potential is there for a 'slingshot effect' when it comes to the Jets offense in this one as they make the switch to Mike White at quarterback in place of an ineffective and mistake-prone Zach Wilson. There are too many gamebreakers on this offense for it to be held back by its quarterback. White isn't going to set the world on fire, but he will do a better job of limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Keep in mind, New York is coming off a brutal four-game stretch that saw it face the Broncos, Patriots (twice) and Bills defenses so lining up against the Bears down-trodden unit should offer a breath of fresh air. Already struggling in pass defense, Chicago is now down two of its best (relatively-speaking) young corners in Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. While it may be counter-intuitive to lay this type of number with the Jets, they've actually won a pair of games by 17 and 23 points and half of their six victories have come by at least a touchdown. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the way this game sets up for Dallas as it looks to bounce back from a blown opportunity in an overtime loss in Green Bay last week. The Cowboys match up well with the Vikings. We know that as they managed to win right here at U.S. Bank Stadium with Cooper Rush starting his first game on Halloween Night last year. They came through as a 4.5-point underdog in that game. Here, they're being favored (at the time of writing) and it's the right move in my opinion. Minnesota is fresh off a stunning come-from-behind win in Buffalo last Sunday. Keep in mind, that game certainly could have gone either way. The Vikings were the benefactors of a number of breaks or dare I say 'lucky' plays late in that contest. Sometimes you have to be good to be lucky, I know. With that said, the Vikes have only checked in as an underdog twice this season. In the other instance, against another NFC East foe in Philadelphia, they lost by 17 points. While things didn't ultimately go their way last Sunday, the Cowboys are still 2-1 SU and ATS since getting QB Dak Prescott back on the field. Now sitting at 9-1 on the season, the Vikes are going to get everyone's best shot from here on out, and I simply feel Dallas is the superior team in this matchup. Take Dallas (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee first half plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

While all bets are off should the Packers fall behind early and enter true 'desperation mode' in the second half of this game, I believe the Titans are worthy of our support catching points in the game's first 30 minutes on Thursday. Note that Tennessee is 6-1 ATS against the first half line over its last seven games with the lone setback coming at home against Denver last Sunday. Even two weeks ago, without QB Ryan Tannehill in a primetime game in Kansas City we saw the Titans carry a 14-9 lead into halftime. In fact, they've led at halftime in each of their last four road games, with the lone exception this season being a disastrous Week 1 affair in Buffalo. Nothing has come easy for the Packers this season and I'm not anticipating anything different on Thursday. Green Bay did cash for first half bettors last Sunday against Dallas, but only went into the break tied (it was a rare home underdog in that contest). You would have to go back four games overall, not to mention four games here at home, to find the last time the Packers led a game at halftime. There's certainly a path for the Titans to control proceedings early with RB Derrick Henry in a monster bounce-back spot after getting held in check by the Broncos last Sunday. Green Bay checks in allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush this season and is severely banged-up on the defensive side of the football right now. Take Tennessee first half (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*).

SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure that any team has more pent up frustration than the Raiders entering this week's 'get right' matchup with the spiralling Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas blew another game in Jacksonville last Sunday, jumping ahead early before going stagnant offensively in the second half in an eventual 27-20 loss. The good news is, this week's opponent is far worse off, as hard as that is to believe. The Colts named Jeff Saturday head coach in a move straight out of left field earlier in the week. While some will buy into Saturday's 'ra-ra, can-do' attitude, I'm not buying it. The talent isn't there on either side of the football but particularly on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting in place of an ineffective Matt Ryan. Ehlinger couldn't have been any worse in last week's road loss against the Patriots. While RB Jonathan Taylor is back this week, there's nothing special about his matchup as the Raiders are capable of containing opposing running backs. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels likely isn't long for the job - called out yet again after last week's seemingly clueless play-calling against the Jaguars. With that being said, I do think the Raiders rise to the occasion as a team, knowing that they won't be back home again until December 4th. The potential is still there with this team, as we saw in an earlier three-game stretch that saw them win and cover at home against the Broncos and Texans and nearly upset the Chiefs (in a one-point loss) on Monday Night Football in Kansas City. Take Las Vegas (8*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Tough spot for the Giants here as they stay on the road for a second straight week and travel across the country to face the upstart Seahawks. I expect this to be a Kenneth Walker game for the Seahawks as he faces a Giants run defense (I use that term loosely) that has been torched for north of 5.7 yards per rush this season. It sounds like Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf will be good to go after suffering a knee injury last Sunday. While Tyler Lockett missed practice during the week, all indications are that he'll play and start as well. He didn't look any worse for wear in last week's rout of the Chargers. Defensively, Seattle remains a bottom-tier unit albeit with some improvement in recent weeks. Regardless, the presence of Daniel Jones always tends to keep a cap on the G-Men offense, even with RB Saquon Barkley running as well as he has at any point in his career. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll back the Patriots as they look to bounce back following an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. What better opponent to get right back up for than the division rival Jets on Sunday. New York is coming off a big win in Denver last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Broncos were undermanned in that game, starting career backup QB Brett Rypien. The Jets struggled to move the football outside of a big run from now-injured rookie RB Breece Hall on a Broncos defense breakdown. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Patriots play fundamentally sound defense while not putting too much in the lap of QB Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe should he take over at some point). Note that the Pats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off an outright double-digit loss as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.8 points on average in that situation. Take New England (8*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense.

Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

We successfully faded the Broncos last week as they lost outright as a short home favorite against the Colts. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as Denver hits the road for a critical matchup against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bolts come off consecutive road wins over Houston and Cleveland but neither performance was all that impressive. While loaded with talent, the Chargers defense has been anything but dominant this season. They've been torched for more than 6.0 yards per rush while only three other teams have given up more touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. I believe that opens the door for a Broncos offense that has had a few extra days to perhaps sort out its issues following that embarrassing performance against the Colts. There's no question Denver has the personnel in place to perform much better than it has offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. Defensively, the Broncos have been stout, particularly against the pass. While the Chargers could probably gain plenty of traction running the football in this one, the temptation always seems strong to put the game in the hands of QB Justin Herbert rather than leaning to heavily on their ground attack. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles has allowed 31.9 points per game while being outscored by an average margin of 2.7 points when coming off consecutive games in which it scored 25+ points, as is the case here. As poorly as things have gone for the Broncos at times, they've still allowed just 18.3 points per game and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points going back to the start of last season. Take Denver (8*).

SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Bucs in last week's game as they left the back door wide open after building a three-touchdown lead against the Falcons. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate here as Tampa Bay is well-positioned to blow the doors off a reeling Steelers squad. There was some optimism in Pittsburgh entering the season but that has been all but dashed following a 1-4 start. Missing a host of key players on defense, the Steelers just don't have the personnel in place to slow Tom Brady and the Bucs steadily-improving offense here. After clearly taking its foot off the gas in the second half against Atlanta last week, and nearly paying the price, I look for Tampa to lay the hammer down here. Defensively, the Bucs are also in a smash spot against a Steelers offense that is quickly turning the page over to the future with QB Kenny Pickett starting at quarterback and rookie RB Jaylen Warren starting to usurp Najee Harris in the backfield. Pickett hasn't shown any sort of rapport with his receiving corps, perhaps with the exception of fellow rookie WR George Pickens. I don't think the absence of TE Pat Freiermuth can be overlooked here either as he's a big part of what the Steelers like to do in the red zone, not to mention a key blocker, noting that Pittsburgh's pass and run blocking is among the worst in the entire NFL. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I think it's reasonable to question whether the Rams offense is broken at this point. Largely due to injuries on the offensive line but also as a result of lukewarm play-calling from Sean McVay, the Rams looked punchless and very much like a one-tricky pony - that trick being Cooper Kupp - in Monday's lopsided defeat at the hands of the 49ers. QB Matt Stafford hasn't looked right all season and is always on the verge of injury facing relentless pressure due to his makeshift o-line's ineffectiveness. Note that even on Monday, when Stafford attempted 48 passes (completing 32 of them) he still threw for only 200 yards. Defensively, the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries and while they may get some players back this week, the prospect of everyone being back at full strength isn't all that high playing on a short week. Los Angeles' poor tackling was evident all night long against the 49ers on Monday. Only San Francisco's conservative play-calling (with its own o-line injury issues) helped keep things from getting completely out of hand. The Cowboys roll into this showdown on the heels of three straight wins. QB Cooper Rush isn't being asked to do too much but he's been serviceable as an NFL starter, leading Dallas to four victories and not a single defeat going back to last season. Dallas regained the services of WR Michael Gallup last week and he quickly got on the scoreboard with a touchdown. The Cowboys receiving corps is starting to come a little more into focus with CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown (who has been better than expected) and Gallup. Dallas is now 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. It's worth noting that the Rams have gone a miserable 25-43 ATS in their last 68 home games with the total set between 42.5 and 45 points. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors grabbing the points with the underdog Cowboys. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The 49ers picked up a statement win against the division-rival and defending Super Bowl champion Rams on Monday Night Football but I look for them to get all they can handle against the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday. This is a tough spot at the best of times as the Niners hit the road on a short week to face a Panthers squad that's fresh off a home loss against the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Panthers are 1-3 to start the campaign, they've been competitive in all four games with two of their three losses coming by three points or less. With RB Christian McCaffrey (who I'll admit has been quiet so far this season) and a capable defense led by a terrific pass rush, I suspect Carolina will rarely be blown out this season. There's certainly a path for the Panthers to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and let their defense take care of the rest. In what projects to be a low-scoring affair (the total sits in the high-30's at the time of writing), I'm comfortable grabbing the points, noting that the Panthers check in a long-term 60-39 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The 49ers not only lost Trent Williams to injury but his backup, Connor McKivitz, who had been filling in admirably, is now out until December as well. I expect to see the Niners continue to focus on running the football and getting the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo's hand quickly when they do elect to throw it. Again, that leads to the potential of long, clock-churning drives that help our cause with the points in our back pocket here. Here, we'll note that the 49ers are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on the road after allowing fewer than 10 points in their previous game and 22-39 ATS in their last 61 contests away from home off a victory by 14 points or more, which is also the situation here. Take Carolina (8*).

NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Are we sure that Brian Hoyer is that much of a downgrade over Mac Jones at quarterback for the Patriots? Hoyer knows the offense and likely won't be asked to do too much anyway in this game. The Patriots have one of the more underrated backfields in the NFL and will look to pound away against a vulnerable Packers defense that has yielded north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Green Bay checks in off consecutive wins both SU and ATS, taking advantage of two inept offenses (albeit for different reasons) in the Bears and Buccaneers. On paper, this looks like a similar matchup against the Pats but I'm not ready to write off New England just yet. Last week was a poor matchup for the Pats against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens but I expect them to fare much better defensively against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who will likely look to go run-heavy in this matchup. It all leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives, effectively shortening this game and favorite the underdog Pats. Take New England (8*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills employed the right strategy with an undermanned defense in the Miami heat last Sunday, churning out long offensive drives that effectively shortened the game. The problem was, they couldn't finish their drives with 7's on the board and it ultimately cost them in a stunning defeat. Here, I look for Buffalo to bounce back with a big win over the Ravens, who are off a considerable victory of their own in New England last Sunday. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been running wild but I'm confident the Bills can contain him - at least on the ground - in this one. Man-to-man defense just doesn't work against the dual-threat Jackson. Buffalo will likely stick to zone here and force Lamar to beat it through the air. Offensively, the Bills should feast on a banged-up Ravens defense. Josh Allen is highly unlikely to turn in two 'bad' games in a row - and I use that term loosely. Let's not forget that the Ravens made Patriots sophomore QB Mac Jones look good last week. Allen should go off in this spot and I look for the Bills to 'get right', noting that Buffalo has gone 28-14 ATS the last 42 times it has played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bengals as they return home on a short week off their first win of the season and catch the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa coming off their biggest win in years over the division-rival and Super Bowl favorite Bills. Buffalo employed a curious offensive gameplan against Miami on Sunday, clearly looking to churn out long drives on offense in an effort to keep their severely undermanned defense (particularly in the secondary) off the field for as long as possible. It worked to some extent as Miami was only able to run 39 plays (compared to Buffalo's 90). However, it also seemed as if the Bills shot themselves in the foot time and time again electing to go with short-gainers and struggling to finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I expect the Bengals to attack the Dolphins vulnerable defense relentlessly. Arguably Miami's top defensive player, CB Xavien Howard, continues to nurse a groin injury and playing on a short week after getting a heavy workload, primarily against Bills WR Stefon Diggs, last Sunday doesn't help matters. Miami hasn't been particularly stout against the run or the pass - even the Bills were able to gain 115 yards on 23 rush attempts against them on Sunday. As I mentioned, Cincinnati picked up its first win of the season in blowout fashion against the Jets on Sunday. Perhaps most importantly, the offensive line held up for Joe Burrow and since turning the football over five times in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati has now committed just one turnover over the last two games. On the flip side, the Dolphins have forced only one turnover in the last two games after taking the football away from the Patriots three times in Week 1. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 8-23 ATS the last 31 times it has come off an outright underdog win against a division opponent, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after losing two of their last three contests, which is the situation here. Take Cincinnati (8*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Just over a week ago, few gave the Cowboys a shot at upsetting the Bengals with Dak Prescott sidelined and a banged-up offensive line tasked with the challenge of keeping backup QB Cooper Rush upright. What did Dallas do? It went out and delivered a victory over the Bengals - Rush's second high-profile win in Prescott's absence after defeating the Vikings on the road in a Sunday night game last October. Here, I believe Dallas can employ a similar gameplan to what we saw last Sunday against Cincinnati, but it will be dealing with an offense with far fewer weapons. By all accounts, New York has used smoke and mirrors to open the season 2-0, rallying in the fourth quarter for a win in Tennessee in Week 1 and scoring only 19 points in a field goal victory over the Panthers in last Sunday's home opener. RB Saquon Barkley has been the engine on offense as QB Daniel Jones has a limited amount of talent to work with at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Cowboys being a divisional opponent know exactly what to expect from Barkley. They bottled up a pretty good Bengals ground attack to the tune of just 89 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. On the flip side, the Giants have been losing the battle in the trenches, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. Note that Dallas has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins over NFC East opponents, outscoring those opponents by an average margin of 22.2 points. The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average along the way. The Giants, meanwhile, have been outscored by 5.8 points on average in their last 10 games following a win. Take Dallas (10*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers go from a nightmarish opening week matchup with the Vikings in Minnesota to a favorable home date with the rebuilding Bears on Sunday night in Week 2. I'm confident we'll see Green Bay right the ship with a convincing win on Sunday night. Take Chicago's opening week victory over the 49ers in torrential rain and awful field conditions with a grain of salt. Yes, the Bears deserve credit for staging the upset but weather was the great equalizer. Here, Chicago won't be so fortunate. Green Bay is expected to have RT Elgton Jenkins and possibly WR Allen Lazard back for this game - both were obviously sorely missed in Minnesota last week. This is a dream bounce-back spot for the Packers dynamic backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as they run right at what projects as a much weaker Bears defensive front than we've seen in recent seasons. It's the Packers defense that has me most confident about this matchup as they should feast on a woeful Bears offensive line that was effectively hidden by last week's poor weather conditions. Especially as Chicago projects to be playing from behind for much of this game, Green Bay's defense should be able to pin back its ears and tee off on Justin Fields for four quarters. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams couldn't have looked any worse in their season-opening blowout loss at the hands of the Bills. Now they've had a long week to prepare for a much more favorable matchup against the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta was ultra-competitive but fell just short in its opener against the division-rival Saints last Sunday. It seems that the Falcons still haven't figured out a way to consistently utilize TE Kyle Pitts to his full potential. Until they do, I consider them a fade as they have few other offensive pieces capable of keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Yes, jack-of-all-trades RB Cordarelle Patterson had another productive performance last Sunday but it was all for not in a loss. I expect QB Marcus Mariota to be under duress all afternoon long on Sunday and that should lead to plenty of mistakes and potentially turnovers. The Rams offense is far better than it showed against the Bills smothering zone scheme in Week 1. There's talk that QB Matt Stafford isn't 100% healthy but that had little to do with the ugly performance against the Bills. I'm confident we'll see Stafford and the Rams explosive offensive bounce back here. Note that the Saints got highly-productive performances from their WR duo of Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas against the Falcons defense last Sunday in Atlanta and I expect more of the same from the Rams WR combination of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson here. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can’t help but feel the wrong team is favored in this game as the 0-1 Panthers head to the Meadowlands to challenge the 1-0 Giants. Carolina fell on a last-second field goal at home against the Browns last Sunday. I actually felt QB Baker Mayfield performed better than expected in his debut with his new team. RB Christian McCaffrey was a non-factor but that changes this week as I expect him to eat in the short passing game. The Giants were already depth-shy in the secondary and will be forced to go without their number two corner Aaron Robinson this week. Like McCaffrey, I expect WR D.J. Moore to have a big bounce-back performance here. Saquon Barkley absolutely went off for the G-Men in last week’s win in Tennessee, virtually willing them to victory. I still don’t believe Daniel Jones is the answer at quarterback and as much as head coach Brian Daboll would like to limit his quarterback’s impact on the game, I look for the Panthers defense to feast on Jones this week. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*).

NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

There's a long line of Super Bowl underdogs that currently own rings. Just last year the Bucs blasted the Chiefs in an underdog role. We're not all that far removed from the Eagles upsetting Tom Brady's Patriots. The Broncos beat the Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs in Peyton Manning's swan song. I grew up watching my favorite team at the time, John Elway's Denver Broncos upset Brett Favre and the Packers. And of course who could forget the Patriots beating the Greatest Show on Turf to earn Tom Brady's first ring, or Eli and the Giants upsetting Tom and the Patriots and spoiling their undefeated season. That's all to say, there's certainly no reason to count out the 'underdog' Bengals here as they head into 'enemy territory' (I use that term loosely in this case) to take on the favored Rams in Los Angeles on Sunday. I'll be honest, I didn't expect Cincinnati to be here. In fact, I didn't expect it to last beyond the Divisional Round. But this is a team that has absolutely put together something special, playing its best football at the most critical time, just as we've seen from virtually all of the previous Super Bowl winners. The Rams are certainly a formidable opponent but I actually like the matchup for the Bengals. Yes, Cincinnati's offensive line has been under fire all season, and certainly in these playoffs. It will undoubtedly be under heavy duress at times on Sunday. But this is a unit did take a step in the right direction against the Chiefs and with two full weeks to prepare for this game, I'm confident the Bengals can come up with a scheme to keep Joe Burrow upright, or at least give him some time to take advantage of some of the matchup advantages they do possess through the air against anyone other than Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Cincinnati doesn't have the 'name' talent on defense, but this is a group that has gotten stronger and I believe one that will benefit from facing a Rams offense that doesn't boast all that consistent of a ground attack. And finally, on the biggest stage of all, give me Joe Burrow - yes, even in just his second NFL season, his first full one at that after he suffered a devastating injury last season - over Matt Stafford. You can be sure Burrow is aware that these opportunities don't always come around again. Just ask Dan Marino. The Bengals are here and I look for them to capitalize. For further support, note that the Rams are a horrid 3-12 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.0 points going back to last season, outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average in that spot. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone seems to be buying what the Rams are selling following last Sunday's big win over the Bucs in Tampa. I'm just not convinced we'll see Sean McVay exercise his own demons against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers on Sunday. First of all, home field advantage is seemingly once again being factored in here, even though we're more than likely to see more red and gold than blue and yellow in the crowd at So-Fi Stadium on Sunday. Not that it matters anyway as the 49ers walked into rather severe conditions in ice cold, snowy Green Bay last Saturday and came away victorious even after things looked extremely dire late. That's what I like about this 49ers squad - they don't quit. There's no question the Niners are limited here with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries. He's not the only one banged-up as Trent Williams is questionable to play at all due to an ankle injury although I can't see him sitting this one out. They've been game-planning around those limitations for weeks now, and I believe they're more than comfortable operating as such here as well. I quite simply have more faith in the Niners than I do in the Rams right now, noting that they're on an incredible 4-0 SU run in an underdog role - a streak that started with a win over the Rams on Monday Night Football back in mid-November. The fact that we're able to grab north of a field goal is an added bonus. Take San Francisco (7*).

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

This game obviously has the makings of an instant classic. I believe we're getting the Chiefs at a discount here after Buffalo got the monkey off its back with a blowout win here at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season. The Bills offense was unstoppable on that night but the Chiefs defense was playing awful football at the time, having opened the season allowing 29, 36, 30 and 30 points in their first four games. While the schedule has certainly played a role, Kansas City enters this contest having given up 21 points or less in nine of 13 games since that loss to the Bills. Buffalo played a near perfect game, particularly on offense, against the division rival Patriots last Saturday. I don't expect it to come close to matching that level of efficiency here. Most are looking at this game as a 'changing of the guard' in the AFC but I don't believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are done yet. They obviously have unfinished business of their own after a poor showing against Tom Brady and the Bucs in last year's Super Bowl. I have a lot of respect for the Bills so there's really not much I can say to knock them here. Simply put, I feel the line is too short with not enough respect being given to a complete Chiefs squad that has a real home field advantage, particularly at this time of year, at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Kansas City (9*).

NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Sunday.

I'm a strong believer that the 'revenge' angle means something when it comes to Tom Brady. While it's true that some teams will get the better of Brady at times, he generally gets the last laugh when the games matter the most. Case in point, the Saints have defeated the Bucs four times going back to the start of last season. However, when the chips were down in the NFL Divisional Round last year, Brady guided the Bucs to a win in what turned out to be Drew Brees' final NFL game, at the Superdome no less. I make that point because here Brady will be facing the Rams for the third time since joining the Bucs at the start of last season. The Rams have got the better of Brady and the Bucs on both previous occasions including a fairly dominant 34-24 victory back in Week 3 this season. We all know about the Bucs injury issues. They're missing a number of key contributors, particularly on the offensive side of the football. They suffered more injuries in last Sunday's win over the Eagles with both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs, two integral parts of the offensive line, going down and questionable to play against the Rams. Regardless, I like Brady and the Bucs chances of rising to the occasion and living to fight at least one more game in these playoffs. The Rams lopsided win over the Cardinals on Monday night is fresh in the minds of most bettors and they're certainly being given considerable respect with this line sitting at the standard three points for home field advantage. I haven't been sold on the Rams all season and I'm not about to change course here. I have the ultimate confidence in the Bucs defense stepping up and rattling Matt Stafford in this one. The Rams have a track record of failing to deliver when the chips are down under Sean McVay and I expect nothing different here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The 49ers will undoubtedly be a popular play not only against the spread but on the moneyline in this game as well. After all, the Niners have been a trendy Super Bowl pick since earning their way into the playoffs with an upset win in Los Angeles in Week 18 - a game they trailed 17-0 but rallied to win in overtime. We won with the Niners in last Sunday's 'upset' victory in Dallas but I'm not interested in going back to the well here. The Packers have fallen out of favor with bettors a little bit after dropping the cash in three of their last four games. I like the fact they draw a familiar opponent here, having faced the Niners three times since the start of 2020, including a wild 30-28 win in Santa Clara back in late September. While the Niners suffered a couple of key injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in last Sunday's win in Dallas (it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to play on Saturday), the Packers have been getting healthier and may have standout CB Jaire Alexander (among others) back for this game. Here, we'll note that the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. The 49ers find themselves in a poor situation here, noting that winning teams that are on the road catching between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off consecutive SU road victories, when facing a winning opponent, have gone a miserable 7-28 ATS and have been outscored by an average margin of 13.0 points the last 35 times that situation has come up. Take Green Bay (8*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not sure I'm in the minority in saying that the Titans are probably one of the weaker one-seeds in the AFC in recent years. They benefited from a very manageable schedule over the second half of the regular season, with a number of close calls along the way that could have really gone either way. With that being said, they catch a break here hosting a Bengals squad that managed to walk away victorious thanks to a goal-line stand at the end of the fourth quarter against the Raiders, but lost a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football in that game. That's a little-talked about aspect of grabbing the one-seed and the bye that goes along with it. It not only gives a team much-needed rest but it also eliminates the potential of losing key players to injury during the Wild Card round. Here, the Bengals will be without Larry Ogunjobi and could also be missing Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels. Even if one of the latter two can't go it would be a major blow. Of course, the Titans will have RB Derrick Henry back in the fold giving them a massive boost. The Titans have had their share of playoff disappointment in recent years, but I look for them to prevail on Saturday and we'll lock in the line early to take advantage of what is likely to look like a discounted price later in the week. Take Tennessee (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

No team is carrying a stronger 'no one believes in us' vibe heading into the NFL Playoffs than the Pittsburgh Steelers. And rightfully so. Very few do believe in them as they face a seemingly insurmountable task in Kansas City on Sunday. After all, the Chiefs already beet the Steelers by a 36-10 score back on Boxing Day. However, that actually sets Pittsburgh up well in this one (stay with me here). The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 points in that situation. That 26-point loss to Kansas City was one of only three losses by 14 points or more this season. While I'm not about to compare this Steelers team to the Ravens eventual Super Bowl winning squad back in 2013, there's no question there are some similar vibes being given off with this being Big Ben's last ride (you may remember the Ravens rallied around Ray Lewis after he announced he would be retiring at the end of their 2013 playoff run). I actually like the way Roethlisberger's approach seemed to evolve in the latter stages of the regular season, almost as if the pressure was off. I don't think the Steelers enter this game feeling much pressure given that no one is giving them a chance of winning. It's not as if the Chiefs have been the picture of consistency - just 8-9 ATS overall this season including a 4-5 ATS mark at home. Take Pittsburgh (9*).

NFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Cowboys couldn't have drawn a worse matchup in the Wild Card round. The 49ers are playing exceptionally well on both sides of the football right now with their lone blemish a 20-17 Thursday night loss in Tennessee where QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a thumb injury during the game. The Niners will arguably have the best two offensive players on the field in this game in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle (I realize there are some Cowboys that would take exception to that). While their offense has really taken off lately, I've been more impressed by their defense, which has held its last four opponents to no more than 236 passing yards despite facing 30+ pass attempts in each of those games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Niners allowed 100 yards rushing and it happened only once over their last 10 contests. The Cowboys are certainly a formidable opponent but not invincible, noting they have lost there of their last five games here at Jerry World. Their offense routinely put up 30+ points in the first two months of the season but reached that mark just twice over their last six games, with those performances coming against a severely depleted Washington squad and an Eagles team that rested the majority of its starters last Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS when the line sits between +3 and -3 over the last two seasons and they haven't been particularly close in those games, losing by an average margin of 11.0 points. Take San Francisco (10*).

AFC Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

What does home field advantage really mean in this matchup? The road team took both regular season meetings, and in rather convincing fashion. On a freezing cold Saturday night in Buffalo, I'm more than comfortable grabbing more than a field goal with a Bill Bellichick-coached Patriots team coming off an ugly loss last Sunday in Miami. The Bills snuck in the front door for a win and cover against the lowly Jets last Sunday (we won with Buffalo in that game). Few teams have been more 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' than the Bills this season. Losses against the Steelers, Jaguars and Colts certainly come to mind. And then there was the 14-10 home loss against these same Patriots in a game where they were quite simply bullied into submission. Buffalo did exact its revenge in a 33-21 win in New England in Week 16. Even in that contest, though, the Bills allowed 149 rushing yards on 27 attempts. It's easy to forget that the Patriots were thought to be the AFC's best team - perhaps on a collision course with Tom Brady and the Bucs in the Super Bowl - after that Monday night victory in Buffalo back in early December. There's no question they've fallen out of favor since then and last Sunday's 33-24 loss in Miami with an AFC East title hanging in the balance only amplified the doubters. Here, we'll note that the Patriots are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.1 points on average in that spot and 50-29 ATS the last 79 times they've played on the road off a loss. The Bills, meanwhile, are 8-20 ATS the last 28 times they've come off four straight wins, as is the case here, and 15-32 ATS the last 47 times they've come off a home win against a division opponent, which is also the situation here. Take New England (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Raiders are in a classic fade spot here, coming off an outright underdog victory at home against a division rival, not to mention playing on a short week, on the road no less. With that being said, I believe they match up well with the Bengals, especially given this will be their second shot at Cincinnati this season after turning in a poor effort at home back in November. That game was played in the midst of Las Vegas' 1-5 slide. Now we get the Raiders coming off four straight wins, and still carrying that 'us against the world' mentality that has seemingly helped so many underdog teams in the NFL Playoffs over the years. The Bengals celebrated the AFC North division title like they won the Super Bowl two weeks ago. They of course laid down in last week's season finale on the road against the Browns (and rightfully so with nothing to play for). I think that might bite them a little here as they had been playing so well prior to that game. For the Raiders, they've essentially been playing playoff football for weeks, desperately trying to sneak into the postseason, which they did thanks to last Sunday's overtime thriller against the Chargers. I also like the fact that Las Vegas has its key pieces (relatively) healthy for this one with RB Josh Jacobs playing some of the best football of his young career and TE Darren Waller having returned with a two-catch but nine-target performance last Sunday. Both players find themselves in favorable matchups against the Bengals dare-I-say overrated defense here. It's been an eternity since the Bengals last won a playoff game. Maybe they get that giant monkey off of their back here, but I'm not convinced a win will come easy and will grab the points accordingly. Take Las Vegas (9*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Bills in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch in Buffalo. The Jets have inexplicably scored 24+ points in three straight games but only have one win to show for it. I suspect that run comes to an end here, however, noting that Buffalo has allowed only 49 points in its last three games combined, holding those three opponents to a combined 45-of-93 (48.4%) passing for just 432 yards. On the flip side, we've seen the Bills running game somewhat surprisingly step to the forefront, rumbling for 173, 119, 114 and 233 yards over their last three games. With an AFC East title hanging in the balance (Buffalo would also need a Patriots loss to the Dolphins) I don't expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this one. Given what an uneven regular season it has been for Buffalo, I suspect they want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance on both sides of the football here (I realize that goes without saying). Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Texans last week, deservedly so as they went far too conservative in an eventual 16-point loss in San Francisco. With Houston simply playing out the string and the Titans looking to potentially wrap up the AFC's number-one seed and a first-round bye, I look for Tennessee to win this one going away. The Titans won't have RB Derrick Henry back for this game. That actually works in our favor from a pointspread perspective. I don't believe Henry's heroics will be needed to secure a lopsided win here. We've seen the Titans take flight over the last six quarters of football - clearly this is a team peaking at the right time. They certainly won't want to lose any of that momentum on Sunday. The only reason the Texans were even somewhat competitive in last week's loss in San Francisco was because the Niners had to turn to rookie QB Trey Lance, with somewhat of a limited offensive gameplan, early on at least. As that game evolved, Lance and the Niners offense were able to get whatever they wanted and I would anticipate a similar scenario unfolding in favor of the Titans explosive offense here. Take Tennessee (9*).

MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

With the Colts dealing with considerable Covid issues I can certainly see them punting this one, especially with games against the Raiders and Jaguars on deck. I liked the situation prior, but now that we have a little more clarity I see this as an ideal spot to back Arizona as a short favorite at home as it looks to bounce back from last week's dismal performance against the Lions. It's not difficult to come back from that type of poor performance as we saw from the Cards last week, particularly at home. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Cleveland at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not going to get caught overthinking this one. The Browns are missing so many key contributors and let's face it, they weren't playing all that well to begin with. Yes, Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are among those players expected back from Covid protocols. No I don't think they have any sort of advantage against a Packers defense that should be in a foul mood after giving up 30 points against the Ravens last Sunday. Offensively, there's little reason to expect anything other than Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense running roughshod over the Browns overrated defense. Cleveland held up well against the Raiders on Monday but that had more to do with the limited nature and cautious, conservative approach by the Las Vegas offense than anything else in my opinion. The Browns don't get better with defensive anchor Myles Garrett dealing with a nagging groin injury and playing on a very short week. They also lose key safety John Johnson. Take Green Bay (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'll lay the points with the Bears in this matchup between two down-trodden NFC North squads. Let's face it, neither team has much going for it entering this Thanksgiving Day showdown. With that being said, I have reason to believe that Chicago is better-positioned to stop the bleeding with a victory here. No, the Bears won't have Justin Fields. They won't have Allen Robinson. They won't have Khalil Mack. However, I do feel that two offensive players in particular match up well here, those being WR Darnell Mooney and RB David Montgomery. Mooney has shown a good enough rapport in limited work with QB Andy Dalton this season to give me hope that he can expose a Lions secondary that has been absolutely flamed for big play after big play this season with only seven teams giving up more pass completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense has been non-existent. The Lions have allowed a whopping 565 rushing yards over their last three games. Those are college-like numbers. Defensively, even without Mack, I also like the matchup for the Bears. Yes, Chicago like Detroit has struggled to stop the run lately but the Lions ground attack has been so inconsistent that I can't really trust them to pound away with any success here. Guys like Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith had a field day against the Lions swinging door-like offensive line in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I expect that trio to create plenty of chaos again on Thursday. Despite the distraction around head coach Matt Nagy's potential firing, I expect to see the Bears come to play in this one. Take Chicago (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles have faced a pretty brutal schedule this season when you really look at it. Here, they'll be playing their first home game since back on October 14th. They've yet to enjoy consecutive home games this season and won't until December. Now they welcome a Chargers squad that has faced quite the opposite type of schedule - this will be only their second time traveling in the last five weeks and only their second game in the last three weeks thanks to a bye two weeks ago. It's obviously a big game for both teams but the Chargers reek a little more of desperation after suffering consecutive losses. I like their chances of bouncing back here. QB Justin Herbert has been struggling but now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the last three teams it has faced to complete 90-of-110 passes for 791 yards. We actually won with Philadelphia last week but that was against the hapless Lions. I'm still not high on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, other than as a fantasy standout. While the Chargers have certainly been awful against the run this season I actually think they can step up in that regard here, especially with the Eagles backfield muddy in the absence of Miles Sanders. Note that the Chargers are 30-16 ATS the last 46 times they've come off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Los Angeles (8*).