Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Seattle at 6:30 pm et on Sunday February 8th.

We won easily with the favored Eagles in last year's Super Bowl but I'm taking a contrarian approach and backing the underdog Patriots in this year's edition. All casual bettors are going to hear leading up to this game is how the Pats don't stand a chance after essentially being gift-wrapped an AFC Championship with not only an easy schedule but the Broncos losing QB Bo Nix. I absolutely love the fact that New England enters this game with a 'nobody believes in us' attitude and that starts from ownership right on down through management, the coaching staff and the players. This is without a doubt a team with a giant chip on its shoulder, not to mention one playing with 'house money' well ahead of schedule in Mike Vrabel's first year at the helm. All the credit in the world to the Seahawks - we went against them in their two playoff victories. However, here we find Seattle going from laying less than a field goal at home against a familiar divisional opponent in the Rams to laying almost a handful of points on a neutral field against an upstart Pats squad. I do think there are areas where New England is well-suited to attack Seattle. The Seahawks benefited from facing a Rams offense led by statue-esque QB Matthew Stafford but now face a true dual-threat in Drake Maye. I also don't think the Pats defense gets enough credit for the way it has quite simply locked down the opposition down the stretch and in the postseason. New England is well-positioned to take away the Seahawks running game and force QB Sam Darnold to win this game. Maybe he does it - he's certainly proved me wrong before - but I feel the Seahawks are laying too many points. Take New England (10*).

Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Seattle at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Rams have now dropped the cash in consecutive games and admittedly run into a buzz-saw of sorts in the red hot Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle has won eight straight games but as we know and saw with the Texans last week, streaks like that are meant to be broken. The Seahawks haven't really been challenged since facing these same Rams in a 38-37 overtime thriller back on December 18th. Their defense has fuelled the charge and last week's game against San Francisco essentially turned on a game-opening kickoff return for a touchdown from Rashid Shaheed. I certainly don't expect the Rams to come out as shaky as the 49ers did last week. Los Angeles took Chicago's best punch last Sunday but managed to win 20-17 in overtime. Nothing has come easy for the Rams in these playoffs. I do think, however, that they have a higher ceiling in this game offensively. The Seahawks are unlikely to elevate QB Sam Darnold from a 'game manager' role after he threw six interceptions in two regular season meetings with Los Angeles. While Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker excelled after Zach Charbonnet went down to injury last week, I don't think Charbonnet's absence can be understated. He's not only a tough runner and has emerged as a big part of Seattle's offense this season but he's a tremendous pass blocker and will certainly be missed against the Rams pass rush here. Also on the injury front, the Rams got RG Kevin Dotson back last week and his presence paid immediate dividends. While Seattle owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Los Angeles has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll count on the Rams to avoid a third straight ATS defeat on Sunday, noting they're in uncharted territory in that regard with their two-game ATS slide marking their longest of the campaign to date. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over New England at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We would have been on the Patriots were it not for the injury to Broncos QB Bo Nix as they would have been catching points in this matchup in Denver on Sunday. Instead, we'll go the other way and grab all the points we can get with the Broncos as they look to overcome the Nix injury and head to the Super Bowl. I've been saying it all season and it bears repeating here; this edition of the Broncos hasn't met a close game it doesn't like. With that in mind, Denver has seen the underdog go 13-5 ATS in its 18 games to date. Of those 18 contests, 10 were decided by four points or less. The Patriots are riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak but we have a catalyst for change at play here as they head on the road for the first time since December 28th. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Saturday.

It's going to be up to the 49ers to make the necessary adjustments after they were trounced 13-3 in a truly one-sided affair against Seattle just two weeks ago. San Francisco is still dealing with plenty of key injuries with TE George Kittle the latest big name to be sidelined. I liked what I saw from the Niners in Philadelphia on Sunday, however. To me, it looked like they found something offensively and the fact that they were able to pull the upset without getting anything at all from their ground game was encouraging to be sure. Defensively, despite all of the injuries, this is a unit that has developed an identity under coordinator Robert Saleh. All of the talk leading up to last week's game surrounded the Eagles vaunted defense but that unit was upstaged by the Niners rag-tag group. Seahawks bettors have to be a little nervous about laying a touchdown with a team led by QB Sam Darnold, who is suddenly dealing with an injury ahead of Saturday's contest. Darnold should be good to go but after turning in a rare clean performance against the Niners two weeks ago, I wonder whether he gets blindsided by a revamped defensive gameplan on Saturday. These primetime games have had the tendency to go down to the wire with absolutely wild finishes. I think there's a good chance we'll see a similar story unfold in Seattle on Saturday. Take San Francisco (8*).

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think Buffalo could have hoped for a better Divisional Round matchup than this. Hear me out. The Bills crushed the Broncos 31-7 in last year's playoffs, albeit at home. Denver is a better team this year and Buffalo has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the football. With that being said, I think all of the pressure is on the Broncos in this matchup as they had a phenomenal regular season to earn the number one seed and get this game at home. I don't have a ton of faith in Denver to deliver, however. QB Bo Nix came up big at times but also wilted under the pressure at others. The way to beat the Bills is by running the football but the Broncos don't exactly have an elite stable of running backs to lean on. I don't like the fact that Denver closed out the regular season with consecutive 'layups' against a Chiefs team led by QB Chris Oladokun and a Chargers squad quarterbacked by Trey Lance. The prospect of facing QB Josh Allen should certainly worry Broncos supporters here. Of note, Denver parlayed one of the easiest schedules in the league to a one-seed. We successfully faded the Broncos in their most recent loss - at home against the Jaguars on December 21st - and we'll do so again here. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the fact that we're getting north of a field goal with the Chargers in this Wild Card matchup on Sunday night. While the Patriots were expected to take a step forward this season, I don't think many expected them to be hosting a playoff game. I do think it's worth noting that New England has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season. This is a tougher matchup for the Pats than it appears at first glance in my opinion. The Chargers have their issues. They've had a tough time getting their ground game going and have an injury-ravaged offensive line that struggles to keep QB Justin Herbert upright. The good news is, the Pats don't have a fierce pass rush. I think Herbert can find some success in this contest, using his underrated wideouts to his advantage. Defensively, Los Angeles sets up well to defend what New England does best and that's throw the football down the field with standout sophomore QB Drake Maye. The Chargers have played lock-down pass defense for much of the season and they'll lean heavily on their back-end to ultimately keep this game within arm's reach on Sunday night. This is a game that I envision going down to the wire so we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Chargers. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles have long been a favorite of ours to be on in the postseason and this year sets up no different with a lot of bettors and casual onlookers down on them following an up-and-down regular season. Philadelphia enters the playoffs as healthy as it's been in some time with Lane Johnson slated to return to anchor the offensive line and it draws a favorable Wild Card matchup against the undermanned 49ers. It's been a struggle for San Francisco to patch together a defense with so many key injuries suffered over the course of the season. I think the most recent one, to LB Tatum Bethune, is far more critical than most realize. This sets up as a smash spot for an Eagles offense that hasn't always laid all of its cards out on the table this season. On the flip side, the Niners offense has dealt with key injuries down the stretch as well. All-world tackle Trent Williams might be able to give it a go but he's not 100% healthy. WR Ricky Pearsall, who has been one of QB Brock Purdy's favorite targets, is questionable to play as well. There's simply no matchup advantages to be found against an elite Eagles defense. For the Niners to stay in this game a lot of things will have to break right and I just don't see it happening on the road against an Eagles team that has proven it plays its best football in the postseason. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a 'revenge' game for the Rams after they dropped a 31-28 decision as double-digit favorites here in Carolina in late November. Nothing went right for Los Angeles in that contest as it lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the Panthers came up with some incredibly fortuitous plays on offense. Here, the Panthers best plan of attack is to shorten proceedings and desperately try to stay within arm's reach for four quarters. The problem is, Carolina's ground game has all but disappeared in recent weeks and I don't think QB Bryce Young can be relied upon to consistently move the chains with his arm or his legs against this Rams defense. Offensively, Los Angeles is healthier than it's been in weeks, even if it does have a concern on the offensive line with Kevin Dotson sidelined. I do think we'll see the Rams two-headed ground attack thrive while the Panthers secondary has a difficult time 'picking its poison' against the likes of Puka Nacua and a now-healthy DaVante Adams. Of note, the Rams four road wins (five if you count a victory over the Jaguars overseas) all came by at least two touchdowns. The straight-up winner has gone 15-1-1 ATS in the Rams 17 games this season. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders on Sunday as they look to close what has been a disastrous campaign on a positive note at home against the division-rival Chiefs. Kansas City took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a score of 31-0 at Arrowhead Stadium back on October 19th. Of course, that was a much different looking Kansas City team than we'll see on Sunday. As bad as things have gone for the Raiders (they're mired in a 10-game losing streak and have won just two games all season), they've actually only suffered one ATS losing streak going all the way back to October 12th. That lasted three games from November 17th to 30th. They do come off an ATS defeat last week in an embarrassing 34-10 home loss against the Giants. The Chiefs 'emptied the tank' as much as they could given the personnel they had to work with in their Christmas Night loss to the Broncos. I'm not expecting as fierce of an effort here as they close out a disappointing season on the road. Note that Kansas City enters this contest on a five-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in seven of its last eight games. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Cowboys will be a popular side on Sunday after they took care of business in a similar spot on the road against a divisional foe in Washington on Christmas Day. Dallas is expected to play its starters despite this being a 'meaningless' affair to close out the season. QB Dak Prescott has some stat-padding to do as he looks to finish as the overall passing leader this season. In the grand scheme of things, I think that's being over-baked into the line. The Giants haven't rolled over down the stretch, losing by three points at home against a surging Minnesota team two weeks ago before routing the Raiders in Las Vegas last Sunday. Both teams are dealing with injuries and the good news for the Giants is they're unlikely to have to face the Cowboys top two running backs including Javonte Williams, who had a standout season. I'm anticipating a nip-and-tuck affair with New York ultimately taking this one down to the wire at the very least. Take New York (8*).

NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think grabbing the points will be paramount in this game that will draw a lot of eyes in the early window of games on Sunday. New Orleans will be looking to avenge an earlier 24-10 home loss against Atlanta this season. The Saints couldn't be playing much better and while their offense figures to be limited without WR Chris Olave, I'm not about to write them off as their defense has quietly excelled down the stretch. The Falcons are in a pretty obvious letdown spot off Monday's 'upset' win over the Rams. Atlanta has certainly been playing well but I don't love the prospect of it laying points in a divisional 'revenge' game off that big outright underdog victory. The Saints know they're going to get a heavy dose of Falcons RB Bijan Robinson as he plays for a number of milestones and I'm certainly they'll be ready. Take New Orleans (10*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I can understand the logic behind support for the Seahawks as a road favorite in this spot. After all, we won with Seattle in last week's 27-10 rout of the Panthers in Carolina. I just can't get there with Sam Darnold and this Seahawks offense, however. The 49ers have reeled off six straight wins both SU and ATS and while the potential absence of all-world LT Trent Williams is concerning, I think Kyle Shanahan has just enough in his toolbox to orchestrate another successful gameplan in this matchup. Credit the Seahawks for their incredible run but I think we see a scenario play out where they struggle to run the football in this game and too much ends up placed on Sam Darnold's shoulders. That would be a similar scenario to what happened for Seattle in its most recent loss, way back on November 16th in Los Angeles, when key turnovers ended up being the difference in a 21-19 defeat. We know San Francisco can take care of the football, noting that it has turned it over once or less in eight of its last 10 contests. Expect another whip-smart game from the Niners as they improve to 2-0 against the Seahawks this season. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think asking the Buccaneers to win by margin right now is a lot. Tampa Bay has lost four games in a row SU and eight straight ATS with the lone victory coming by a field goal against the Cardinals back on November 30th. While the Panthers haven't exactly proven to be 'road warriors' they have posted notable road wins in Green Bay and Atlanta and perhaps more importantly they've been an excellent bounce-back team, avoiding consecutive losses since opening the season 0-2. Off a 27-10 rout at home against a good Seahawks team last Sunday (we won with Seattle in that game), I think we'll see them respond favorably here. The Bucs defense has already been down-trodden and now it's missing a key piece in Jamel Dean. That opens the door for the Panthers capable but inconsistent offense to turn in a good performance and ultimately wrap up the NFC South division. Take Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I'm not convinced there's as much separating these two teams as indicated by the pointspread on Monday night. Los Angeles is coming off a heart-breaking loss in Seattle a week ago Thursday and I get the feeling it might have a difficult time getting up for this non-division affair with its hopes of winning the NFC West dwindling. That's not to say the Rams won't win this game but I think they'll be in tough trying to win by margin. The Falcons are playing well even if their offense did thrive against subpar opposition in their last two games. I like the fact that they're relatively fresh with this being only their third game since December 11th. I do think a lot will be pinned on the Atlanta defense in this game as Kirk Cousins figures to be under duress for much of the night on offense. The Falcons have been stout against the run in recent weeks and won't have to deal with red zone magnet Davante Adams in this game giving them a puncher's chance. This is also another green-light spot for Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson as he looks to continue to pad his stats during a tremendous campaign. Look for the Falcons to keep the Rams within arm's reach. Take Atlanta (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Maybe Josh Allen carries the Bills on his back and extends their four-game winning streak on Sunday but I'm willing to pay to see it. Philadelphia was written off by a lot of bettors weeks ago but they've quietly turned things around with consecutive lopsided victories over the Raiders and Commanders. While I realize the Eagles recent strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired, I do like the way they match up on the road against the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo's defense has fallen off a cliff lately, particularly against the run. That should be music to the ears of Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley. In fact, I would give the Eagles the edge in virtually every aspect of this game with the exception being the quarterback position. The wrong team is favored with a little too much weight being placed on Buffalo's home field advantage in my opinion. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a tough matchup for the upstart Panthers as they draw a rested Seahawks team having not played since a week ago Thursday, when they outlasted the Rams in an overtime thriller. Seattle's offense is set up favorably to ultimately salt this game away as it should be able to run the ball at will against the Panthers weak run game defense. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense is truly elite and matches up well in all areas against the Panthers inconsistent offense. While this line may look a little heavy at first glance, I think it's right where it should be and I'm confident Seattle can pull away for the cover. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams come in red hot and only one game separates them in the AFC standings (the Chargers hold the edge). To put it bluntly, I have more faith in the Texans defense to step up in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. Houston got a scare from the Raiders at home on Sunday, snapping its four-game ATS winning streak in the process. We'll back the Texans here, noting they haven't dropped the cash in consecutive games since opening the season with three straight ATS losses (they're 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games). The Chargers are 11-4 but they've feasted on one of the weaker schedules in the league. Like the Texans, they're in uncharted territory riding a season-high winning streak but the different is, they're laying points in this spot. We'll grab any points we can get with underdog Houston here. Take Houston (8*).

AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors might be to grab the boatload of points with the Chiefs at home on Christmas Night. Kansas City is coming off an embarrassing but somewhat expected loss at Tennessee on Sunday. Of course, the Chiefs season is over for all intents and purposes. With nothing to play for we've seen a mass exodus to the injured list. Chris Oladokun will start this game behind a makeshift offensive line and he won't have top target Rashee Rice at his disposal. The playoff-bound Broncos figure to be in a foul mood after Sunday's convincing loss at home against the red hot Jaguars. We won with Jacksonville in that game but I'm confident we'll see Sean Payton's squad bounce back with a statement win by margin here. Were Denver not coming off a loss it would be easy to overlook Kansas City but that's not the situation it is in. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Colts were able to stay competitive last Sunday in Seattle by employing 44-year old QB Philip Rivers in an obvious 'game manager' role and I think there's a similar path to keeping this game close on Monday night. While Rivers' presence is startling to be sure, it's not as the Colts are devoid of talent around him. This game should be all about moving the sticks with RB Jonathan Taylor against a still-depleted 49ers defense that can be had on the ground. Rivers figures to be asked to do very little once again and any success out of his arm at all is a bonus. Defensively, the Colts are in tough at the back-end but still stout up front. If they can turn this 49ers offense one-dimensional, there's reason to believe they can hang around in this game. It might prove difficult for San Francisco to ultimately pull away if it can't effectively run the football with Christian McCaffrey (note that Indy has allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season). With WR Ricky Pearsall ruled out, the Niners offense has to be downgraded slightly as he has had a terrific rapport with QB Brock Purdy. Take Indianapolis (8*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Broncos are the AFC's number one seed on the heels of an incredible 11 straight victories. I think they'll be in for a fight on Sunday, however, as they host the surging Jaguars. Denver has rarely met a close game it doesn't like and I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here off last Sunday's win-and-cover against Green Bay. While Jacksonville has been beating up on weaker opponents and takes an obvious step up in class here, I think it will be up for the challenge. Because of the level of opposition it has faced recently, few have been paying much attention but Jacksonville has rattled off five straight victories both SU and ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get. Take Jacksonville (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants are coming off a home loss against the division-rival Commanders last Sunday and are simply playing out the string at this point. With that being said, I like their chances of rising to the occasion and putting the Vikings on 'upset' alert on Sunday. Minnesota delivered an 'upset' win of its own last Sunday night in Dallas. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this clear letdown spot on the road on Sunday. The Vikings are dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Giants offense. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think this line is a little heavy with the Saints looking to string together their third straight victory and fourth in a row ATS. New York comes off back-to-back blowout losses but this is a manageable matchup against an opponent that's simply playing out the string at this point. I thought the Jets showed some progress offensively with QB Brady Cook under center as he developed some chemistry with their top wideout at this point, Adonai Mitchell. Defensively, New York is a mess but I'm not convinced New Orleans can take full advantage. Take New York (8*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This game harkens back memories to Pittsburgh's 3-0 Monday night victory over Miami in the 'Mud Bowl' of 2007 (we actually cashed the 'under' in that game ;) The Steelers pulled out a 27-22 'upset' win in Baltimore last Sunday but I'm not convinced that victory will be of the 'tide-turning' variety. You're not going to win many games running for less than 40 yards but that's what Pittsburgh accomplished last week. The Steelers are still trending in the wrong direction having gone 3-5 SU and ATS over their last eight games and their home field advantage has been virtually non-existent in recent years. The Dolphins enter this game riding a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). Tanking was probably the prudent move after a miserable start to the season but instead Miami persevered and now finds itself still with something to play for down the stretch, even if its chances or reaching the playoffs are remote. I like the way the Dolphins match up in this particular contest. The Steelers have been getting gashed by opposing ground attacks and one thing Miami does well is run the football with RB De'Von Achane. He's been cleared to play after suffering an injury last week. QB Tua Tagovailoa has evolved into a true game manager and there's nothing wrong with that in this offense. Defensively, the Dolphins have all but erased opposing ground attacks in recent weeks and have the potential to make the Steelers one-dimensional on offense, noting that unit has been of the pop-gun variety for much of the season. This has all the makings of an ugly affair so we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Dolphins. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with the 49ers on Sunday as they return home off their bye week and draw a smash spot against the lowly Titans. Tennessee did rise to the occasion in an 'upset' win in Cleveland last Sunday, thanks to an explosive performance from its offense - the type of showing that's been few and far between this season. I expect that Titans offense to go back in the tank on Sunday as it faces a surging 49ers defense that has figured out how to play in spite of its key absences. Offensively, San Francisco is positioned exceptionally well to get whatever it wants against a very beatable Tennessee defense. The Niners are at virtually full strength on offense and draw an opponent that has barely displayed a pulse against the run or the pass. Given their recent ascension and knowing how quickly fortunes can turn, I don't expect the Niners to let their foot off the gas in this contest. Take San Francisco (8*).

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the short number with the revenge-minded Bills as they travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots on Sunday. There's a clear path to victory for Buffalo in this matchup as New England has proven vulnerable in one particular area and that's defending the run, which plays right into the hands of the strength of the Bills offense. I don't think we'll see Buffalo bang its head against the wall trying to come up with big plays through the air in this contest. Instead, I see its gameplan playing out similarly to how it attacked Pittsburgh in a road win two weeks ago. The Bills defense will look to snuff out the Patriots passing attack in this rematch and I'm confident they'll have success doing so boasting an elite pass defense. While Pats QB Drake Maye is having an MVP-caliber season, I think this is a matchup where he runs into considerable resistance. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The knee-jerk reaction is probably to lay the points with the defending champion Eagles as they look to avoid the unthinkable - a three-game losing streak with all three defeats potentially coming in 'upset' fashion. We'll go the other way, however, and grab the points with the Chargers at home. Philadelphia is dealing with key injuries and inefficiency at this point. It would be difficult to isolate two more damaging injuries for Philadelphia than Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively. The Chargers know all about o-line injuries with Joe Alt sidelined. With that being said, at least Los Angeles has displayed more of an identity on offense. The Eagles look lost at times with RB Saquon Barkley seemingly running in place and QB Jalen Hurts struggling to find his targets down the field. This matchup sets up well for the Chargers defense and I think Los Angeles can also effectively run the football on offense, especially with rookie RB Omarion Hampton expected to return. QB Justin Herbert isn't likely going to be asked to do too much in this particular matchup as he's admittedly banged up. We'll take our chances with the home side catching points here. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone was singing the Rams praises entering last week's matchup in Carolina but instead of rolling to their seventh straight win, they were 'upset' by the Panthers. I'm confident we'll see Los Angeles bounce back this week as it stays on the road to take on the Cardinals, who won for us in a field goal defeat in Tampa last Sunday. Few teams are as healthy as the Rams right now. The same can't be said for the Cardinals who are missing key contributors on defense in Walter Nolen III and Max Melton. The Rams likely took last Sunday's embarrassing defeat personally and I'm confident we see them draw up an aggressive gameplan on both sides of the football here. The Cardinals certainly haven't quit on the season and QB Jacoby Brissett has performed admirably since taking over the starting job, but without any semblance of a consistent ground attack, I think they're going to have a difficult time effectively shortening this game and staying inside the pointspread. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Perhaps no team is more in need of a 'get right' spot than the Vikings right now and I think they're well-positioned for exactly that as they return home to host the Commanders on Sunday. We won with Washington in last Sunday night's wild overtime defeat at the hands of the Broncos. The Commanders left it all on the field in that game and while they will welcome back dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels on Sunday, this isn't a promising matchup for him, likely still playing at less than 100% and with little reason to put too much on the line with the team simply playing out the string at this point. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has really struggled since returning from injury but he does draw a favorable matchup here. The Commanders defense can be hole-punched by even the most pedestrian offensive attacks and I do think we see the Vikes throw everything they have at them in an effort to save face off an embarrassing loss last week and following four losses in a row both SU and ATS. Take Minnesota (10*).

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a big ticket fading the Buccaneers last week as they left the back door wide open in an eventual three-point home win over the Cardinals. We'll grab the points at the expense of the Bucs again this week as I feel they're once again overvalued at home. Tampa Bay remains banged-up all over the field. QB Baker Mayfield hasn't looked quite himself for weeks. Even last Sunday, when they got a boost from the return of RB Bucky Irving, the Bucs could still only muster 20 points. They've been held to 23 points or less in four of their last five games and are winless ATS over their last four contests. The losses continue to pile up for the Saints but they have at least provided some optimism by going 2-1 ATS in their last three games. They showed no quit in last week's four-point loss in Miami and given they've held seven of their last eight opponents to 26 points or less, I believe they're in good position to stay inside the lofty pointspread on Sunday. Keep in mind, this is a division 'revenge' game for New Orleans after it was dusted 23-3 at home back on October 26th. That was when the Saints were in the midst of a four-game SU and ATS slide while the Bucs improved to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS with that victory but are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since. Take New Orleans (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Patriots were severely undervalued following a 1-2 SU and ATS start to the season and went on to win five straight games ATS following that stretch and enter Monday's game on a nine-game SU winning streak. With that being said, they're just 1-2-1 ATS over their last four contests. Pointspread success isn't coming easy for Mike Vrabel's squad right now as the cat is out of the bag, so to speak - the Patriots are the real deal and casual bettors are well aware of that. I think they're overvalued in this spot as they host a Giants team that's seemingly in a constant state of flux. New York hasn't quit on the season as it has pushed the Bears, Packers and Lions - all potential playoff teams - hard in its last three games, going 2-0-1 ATS along the way. It gets a boost here with the return of rookie QB Jaxson Dart. With recent changes to the coaching staff, there's a renewed sense of urgency for the Giants right now. The pressure lies squarely on the Patriots shoulders here as they're expected to win this game after the division-rival Bills took care of business yesterday. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that this game wasn't 'flexed' out of primetime is interesting. Perhaps NBC executives know something most don't and expect the Commanders to give the Broncos a run. I do like Washington's chances of giving Denver some trouble in this one. Note that Denver hasn't met a tight game it doesn't like this season with seven of its 11 contests having been decided by four points or less. The Broncos haven't lost since Week 3 in Los Angeles (against the Chargers). The Commanders haven't won a game since Week 5 (also against the Chargers). This will likely be Washington QB Marcus Mariota's last stand before Jayden Daniels makes his expected return next week. I don't think Mariota will be asked to do much against a vaunted Broncos defense on Sunday. Instead, look for Washington to put this one in the hands of its defense. The Commanders have brought the heat against opposing quarterbacks this season and I do think there's a path for them to knock Broncos QB Bo Nix off course in this matchup. After getting thoroughly embarrassed i its last two home games against Seattle and Detroit, look for Washington to put forth a better showing here. Take Washington (8*). 

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns are playing with renewed confidence with QB Shedeur Sanders taking over the offense. His presence gives the Browns fan base some reason for optimism at the very least, even if it does end up being short-lived. Here, I think Cleveland is capable of keeping San Francisco within arm's reach for four quarters. The 49ers got the win they needed against the Panthers in primetime on Monday. Carolina put forth a rather curious gameplan and ultimately came up well short. The Niners defense remains banged-up while the offense has shown positive signs but is being led by a less-than-100% healthy Brock Purdy. The Browns elite defense will undoubtedly be eager to attack Purdy aggressively in the Dawg Pound on Sunday. Allowing less than 4.0 yards per rush, Cleveland should be able to effectively erase San Francisco's offensive focal point in RB Christian McCaffrey. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this game on three-game SU and ATS slides and while Tampa Bay figures to have the talent edge, not to mention home field advantage, I think Arizona comes away victorious. The Cardinals have run up against a difficult schedule over the last six games, facing the Colts, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers and Jaguars in succession. Forgive them if they looked like they ran out of gas in last Sunday's overtime loss to Jacksonville. Arizona has thrown caution to the wind offensively, turning veteran QB Jacoby Brissett loose and all but abandoning its broken ground attack. Against Tampa Bay's struggling defense, Brissett is set up for success again this week. Offensively, the Buccaneers are in tough. While QB Baker Mayfield and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka will once again be on the field, they're nowhere near 100% healthy. Mayfield took a beating against the Rams in primetime last Sunday, injuring his non-throwing shoulder. The Cards have an underrated defense that has been particularly tough defending the pass. Arizona checks in 4-1 ATS on the road this season while Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS at home. Take Arizona (10*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts have cooled off, dropping two of their last three games including a hard-fought overtime battle in Kansas City last Sunday. I think the door is open for the Texans to make a move in the AFC South and I like the way this matchup sets up for them on Sunday in Indianapolis. We won with Houston last week as it stunned the Bills in a Thursday night home game. While the Texans will hit the road this week, they'll once again benefit from playing indoors, which does give their offense a boost in my opinion. QB C.J. Stroud is set to return and while not a massive difference-maker, he is certainly an upgrade over Davis Mills, who did perform admirably in Stroud's absence. Defensively, the Texans are elite and seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. They'll be ready to tee off on Colts QB Daniel Jones on Sunday as he's looked more and more like the Jones of old lately. While Jonathan Taylor can run on anyone, I think the Colts will have a difficult time ever pulling away in this contest. Take Houston (10*).

NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Thursday.

It's not often we talk about a team being in a 'bounce-back' spot off a win but I think that's the case with the Lions after they narrowly escaped, and needed a late rally to do so, with an overtime win over the Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers dismantled the division rival Vikings at home to successfully rebound following a primetime loss to the defending champion Eagles. I don't like the way this matchup sets up for Green Bay as it travels to Detroit on Thursday. The Packers are dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Even if their banged-up defenders can go, there's no guarantee they'll be at full strength and this is a nightmarish matchup against an elite Lions offense. Detroit is finally getting healthier defensively with CB Terrion Arnold potentially able to return on Thursday. Even if he can't go, the Lions defense was bolstered by the return of CB D.J. Reed on Sunday. I like the matchup for Detroit's defense against a lukewarm Packers offense that won't have RB Josh Jacobs at 100% health. Emanuel Wilson has done a nice job spelling Jacobs but he's not a proven number one back by any means. Detroit's Thanksgiving Day woes are mostly a thing of the past, although I do think an 'upset' defeat here at home against these same Packers two years ago is still fresh in its mind entering this clash. Expect a statement performance from the Lions. Take Detroit (10*).

NFC East Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

It's not often we see the defending Super Bowl champions enjoy the level of pointspread sucess the Eagles have so far this season. They enter this game sporting a 7-3 ATS mark and currently riding a four-game ATS winning streak. I think the latter comes to an end on Sunday in Dallas, however. The Cowboys followed up their bye week with a 33-16 rout of the Raiders in Las Vegas on Monday. It's been an up-and-down season for Dallas to be sure, in a myriad of ways. I like the revenge spot here, however, as the Cowboys look to take advantage of an Eagles team that has sputtered offensively with RB Saquon Barkley predictably struggling to regain last year's form and is sure to miss RT Lane Johnson and potentiall C Cam Jurgens as well on Sunday. The Eagles defense has carried the team but I think there's a path for the Cowboys offense to keep this game ultra-competitive on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia will be playing its third game in 14 days after consecutive down-to-the-wire affairs against tough opponents in the Packers and Lions. I do wonder whether we see a letdown against a divisional opponent it has beaten up on in recent years here. It's not often we put our money on the Cowboys, but we'll make an exception here as I like the way they're positioned grabbing points at home. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on New England minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It's amazing to me that a hint of optimism still swirls around the Bengals with the news that QB Joe Burrow could make his return to the field for the stretch run. Cincinnati is 3-7 and I'm not sure Burrow's presence will serve to resurrect a team that has arguably the worst defense in football, especially given its current injury situation. The Bengals will be without standout rookie DE Shemar Stewart and likely all-world pass rusher Trey Hendrickson as well again on Sunday. That spells trouble as they prepare to face a multi-pronged Patriots offense that just keeps getting better with QB Drake Maye at the helm. You'd be hard-pressed to find a quarterback playing at a higher level, or certainly with more poise than Maye right now. He draws another mouth-watering matchup here after a precise performance against the lowly Jets last week. Cincinnati, even if it does have Burrow back in action, will be without WR Ja'Marr Chase following his spitting incident last week. The Bengals played matador-like defense in Pittsburgh last week - a recurring theme this season. While they're certainly in desperation mode from this point forward, I don't see a path to staying competitive in this game. Take New England (8*).

AFC Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As was somewhat expected, the Ravens had their hands full with the division-rival Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. Still, Baltimore prevailed by a 23-16 score - its fourth straight victory to get back to .500 on the season. The Ravens can't let down their guard as they have little margin for error in a competitive AFC landscape. This game sets up as a smash spot for Baltimore - on both sides of the football. The Ravens haven't played a game at home since rolling to a 30-16 victory over the Bears - with Cooper Rush at quarterback - on October 26th. The Jets have actually won two of their last three games but those victories came against the reeling Bengals and Browns. Last week, they got a reality check in a 27-14 loss in New England in a game that I don't feel was as close as the final score indicated. New York is expected to go back to journeyman Tyrod Taylor to run the offense on Sunday. I don't expect him to fare any better than Justin Fields against a Ravens defense that continues to ascend now that it's back at full strength. Off a rather sloppy performance against a terrific Browns defense last Sunday, we'll call for the Ravens to operate with precision in what turns into a rout this week. Take Baltimore (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The presence of Davis Mills at quarterback for the Texans will certainly scare away a lot of potential bettors but he has actually evolved into a fairly solid backup option for Houston and is 2-0 as a starter this season. It's the Houston defense that should carry a lot of the load in this difficult Thursday night matchup. The Bills looked to me like they 'emptied the tank' in Sunday's wild home win over the Buccaneers. That game went back and forth for 60 minutes before Buffalo eventually pulled away. I certainly don't think the Bills offense will enjoy the same level of success travelling on a short week to face one of the league's best defenses in Houston. Look for the Texans offense to do just enough to at the very least take this game down to the wire. Take Houston (10*).

NFC West Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a big ticket with the Rams in last week's road win and cover over the 49ers. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Los Angeles on Sunday, however, as they host similarly-streaking Seattle. The Seahawks, like the Rams, come off four straight victories. They weren't really tested in last week's rout of the Cardinals. There's obviously not a lot separating these two division rivals, but I do give the Seahawks the slight edge defensively and believe their offense can do enough to at least hold serve and put the Rams on 'upset' alert on Sunday afternoon. Note that while the Seahawks wide receiver room has only gotten stronger with the addition of Rashid Shaheed and the return to health of veteran Cooper Kupp (who will be facing his former team), the Rams don't boast a ton of depth and will have to move forward with DaVante Adams at less than 100% healthy by most accounts. This is a game that I think will be decided by the passing games as neither side appears willing to give an inch on the ground. Take Seattle (10*).

AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

There's suddenly some optimism around the Bengals despite the fact that they enter this game off back-to-back losses SU and ATS and have given up a ridiculous 117 points over their last three games. Joe Burrow having his practice window opened up has a lot to do with it. Perhaps the bye week has resulted in many forgetting what they saw out of Cincinnati in that ridiculous 47-42 home loss to the Bears on November 2nd. Meanwhile, the Steelers fell to 0-3 SU and ATS in primetime games with last Sunday's ugly loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. They figure to be bent on revenge in this particular matchup after they fell 33-31 in one of those primetime contests back on October 16th. Of note, the Steelers closed as five-point favorites on the road in that matchup. Cincinnati's defense was already dreadful and now it's without rookie pass rusher Shemar Stewart in addition to Trey Hendrickson. We know Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers can still ball when given time in the pocket and he should certainly be afforded that in spades on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Miami at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

Few bettors want any part of the Commanders after their ugly 44-22 home loss against the Lions last Sunday, marking their fifth straight loss. They'll have a bye week on deck so I do think we'll see them empty the tank in this winnable game against the Dolphins in Madrid. Miami is coming off an 'upset' win over the Bills at home last week - one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. The Dolphins do have some positives to build off of to be sure, but they're banged-up on defense and I think we'll see Washington play with an edge defensively with head coach Dan Quinn taking over play-calling duties on that side of the football. I'm just not ready to anoint the Dolphins being 'back' after one positive performance. While the Commanders are in a tail-spin, it's worth considering the level of competition they've faced during their slide (Bears, Cowboys, Chiefs, Seahawks and Lions). While these two teams own identical 3-7 records, Washington has faced the tougher slate of opponents by most metrics. Finally, we'll note that Washington hasn't lost six games in a row since the 2014 season. Look for it to avoid that fate here. Take Washington (8*).

AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Jets enter this game off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS but they're the very definition of 'paper tigers'. They're banged-up at key positions and sold off pieces prior to the trade deadline. The players that are still there aren't all that happy and while a divisional matchup in primetime is easy to get up for, I don't think they can hang with the Patriots for 60 minutes. Yes, New England is in a clear letdown spot off an 'upset' win in Tampa on Sunday. However, the matchup advantages are simply too plentiful for me to ignore in this game. The Patriots enter riding a seven-game winning streak, going 6-1 ATS over that stretch. They've blown out the teams they should, winning by 29 points against Carolina, 18 points against Tennessee and 19 points against Cleveland during that stretch. I expect the Pats defense to feast in this game and for it to serve as another breakout game for rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson in front of a national audience. Aaron Glenn's Jets simply won't have the answers. Take New England (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I think we're looking at a 'wrong team favored' situation on Monday as the Eagles come off their bye week and travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. Not much separates these two teams in the NFC standings. However, all records aren't created equally. Note that Green Bay has faced one of the easiest schedules in the league - arguably the easiest from Week 2 on (after a matchup with the Lions in its opener). The knee-jerk reaction might be to back the Pack in this rebound spot off last Sunday's 'upset' loss at home against the Panthers. I simply feel there are some issues that just aren't going to be fixed in the matter of a week. Losing TE Tucker Kraft certainly hurts but all in all, this is just an unfavorable matchup on both sides of the football for Green Bay. It's a pick your poison type of situation when you're facing the Eagles multi-pronged offense. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has had an extra week to scheme up a game plan on defense. The Eagles have looked like a different team since that upset loss in a Thursday nighter in New York on October 9th. Now they're incredibly fresh, playing only their third game since. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This game has blowout potential as injuries have severely depleted the 49ers on both sides of the football. The Rams are off a blowout win over the lowly Saints last Sunday but I don't think there's any chance of a letdown here as they head on the road to face a division rival. Los Angeles has a wealth of options to work with on offense with WR DaVante Adams giving the team even more than they probably expected, nicely complimenting legitimate superstar Puka Nacua. A shell of their former selves up front due to injury, Rams RB Kyren Williams figures to go off in this game as well. Defensively, the Rams are set to put Niners QB Mac Jones under duress all afternoon long. Last week, San Francisco scored 30+ points but that was rather misleading against a struggling Giants defense as Jones didn't even attempt to stretch the field. The Niners simply aren't built to play from behind right now with RB Christian McCaffrey the focal point of their offense. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With adverse weather conditions expected and a Bears defense that has employed a matador-like style, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Giants. New York suffered a double-digit loss at home against the 49ers last Sunday. That leaves them as an after-thought for most bettors this week. Chicago pulled off a wild 47-42 win in Cincinnati last Sunday. I think that result led to more questions than answers as to whether the Bears can sustain success. Chicago is 5-3 but it has faced one of the easier schedules in the league. While the Giants don't appear all that imposing, I do think New York has enough upside to warrant backing them as they look to snap their three-game slide. Take New York (8*).

Non-Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I have no problem fading the Vikings off their big 'upset' win on the road against division-rival Detroit last Sunday. Minnesota's offense received rave reviews following that contest yet what I saw was a quarterback in J.J. McCarthy that made some big plays but looked shaky behind a leaky offensive line. McCarthy hasn't gotten the best out of all-world WR Justin Jefferson and I expect that will continue to be the case against a quickly-ascending Ravens defense. Baltimore has had a few extra days to prepare for this matchup having not played since what amounted to a virtual walk-through against Miami a week ago Thursday. QB Lamar Jackson looked no worse for wear in his return from injury even though he wasn't asked to do much. Here, I look for the Ravens to open things up in ideal conditions at Bank of America Stadium, against an overrated Vikings defense. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This will look like a gift to a lot of bettors as the Cowboys are at home on Monday night and hosting a Cardinals team that has lost five straight games. The knee-jerk reaction would be to back Dallas in this bounce-back spot off last Sunday's 44-24 loss against a good Broncos team in Denver. We'll go the other way and grab the points with the Cardinals as they go on the road following their bye week. Note that Arizona is 1-2 SU but a perfect 3-0 ATS away from home this season. While the home loss against the lowly Titans in Week 5 was embarrassing to be sure, the Cards have played competitive football against difficult opponents since, losing by four points in Indianapolis and at home against Green Bay. The Cowboys have gone 3-4-1 despite a manageable schedule. I don't think it's a good idea laying points with a team that's in the conversation for having the league's worst defense, regardless the state of the opposition. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders couldn't have looked much worse than they did in Monday's rout in Kansas City. Of course, Washington was without QB Jayden Daniels among others in that contest. They're healthier heading into Sunday night's showdown with Seattle with Daniels slated to return. The Seahawks have a little more margin for error than the Commanders right now as they sit at 5-2, tied for first place in the NFC West. The last time we saw Seattle it cruised to a win and cover at home against the Texans on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. Coming off their bye week, the Seahawks would appear to be well-positioned to lay waste to the reeling Commanders but if you follow the NFL closely, you know that it's a week-to-week league. I look for Washington to bounce back in this spot. Take Washington (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Patriots are 6-2 on the season but aside from their upset victory over division-rival Buffalo, who have they really beaten? They've quite simply faced one of the easiest schedules in the league. Of course, that's not their fault and all the credit to them for taking advantage, but I think there's a good chance their run ends here against Atlanta on Sunday. The Falcons were a complete no-show last Sunday at home against Miami as they were blown out by the hapless Dolphins. Note that Atlanta was without two key pieces on offense in that game, namely QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London. Both will be back on Sunday. Defensively, the Falcons are still dealing with some injuries but I don't consider the Patriots to have an elite offense capable of really punishing them. I have this as a field goal game either way but think the Falcons will be right there for the potential upset. Take Atlanta (10*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Steelers right now. After all, they're coming off consecutive losses against the Bengals and Packers with both of those games playing out in primetime on national tv. It's precisely the time we want to back them. The sky is not falling in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are still 4-3 on the campaign and I look for them to stun the red hot Colts on Sunday. Indianapolis comes off yet another blowout win with the latest coming against the lowly Titans last Sunday. Of note, the Colts will be playing outdoors for just the second time this season (I don't count SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles - where they've played twice this season - as a true outdoor venue). This will be the first time the Colts have played on natural grass this season. While Indianapolis has had a couple of tough matchups, for the most part it has been handed an easy schedule. I look for it to finally get tripped up in this spot. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Chiefs steamrolled the Raiders while the Commanders had their lunch handed to them by the division rival Cowboys last Sunday. So the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with Kansas City on Monday night, especially considering the Commanders will be without QB Jayden Daniels. Instead, we'll grab the generous helping of points with Washington. Backup QB Marcus Mariota has proven capable of steering the offense in the right direction. He was thrust in a tough situation last Sunday as the Commanders got off to a difficult start against Dallas. Game script worked against him to be sure. Here, I think there's a path for the Commanders to churn out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to keep the Chiefs prolific offense off the field. Kansas City is rolling right now but I see this as a potential flat spot against a non-conference opponent. Take Washington (10*).

NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Revenge has to be on the Eagles minds after they dropped a stunning 'upset' decision in blowout fashion in the Meadowlands a couple of weeks ago. Last Sunday, Philadelphia bounced back with a critical road win in Minnesota and we were along for the ride, cashing our ticket on the Eagles. Here, the Eagles are set up to smash against a down-trodden Giants defense that isn't getting any healthier. New York had last week's game set up on a platter leading big in the fourth quarter in Denver but couldn't close it out, due in large part to its matador-like defense. While the Giants do have some upside offensively with rookie QB Jaxson Dart performing admirably, the Eagles have the benefit of facing him twice in short order and they're sure to play with a chip on their shoulder after getting lit up by New York last time around. No A.J. Brown for the Eagles in this one but that's not overly concerning as he hasn't been the dominant force we've become accustomed to seeing so far this season. Take Philadelphia (10*).

My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Houston at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Texans come off their bye week, which came on the heels of back-to-back wins both SU and ATS. Still, Houston is just 2-4 on the season and draws a tough environment against a tough opponent in Seattle on Monday. The Seahawks won for us in Jacksonville last week. Their defense held up well considering their plethora of injuries, while the offense did just enough to secure a much-needed road win. At 4-2 and with a manageable schedule ahead, I think the Seahawks are still a 'buy low' team at this point of the season, all things considered. The Texans have been made to look good by facing the Titans and injury-ravaged Ravens in their last two games. Seahawks roll. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Monday.

The Buccaneers have been a thorn in the Lions side in the last two meetings in this series going back to January of 2024. First, Tampa Bay gave Detroit all it could handle in an eventual defeat in the playoffs before staging an outright 'upset' win last September. Both of those games were also played in Detroit and Baker Mayfield was the Bucs quarterback on both occasions. I like Mayfield's chances of putting the Lions on 'upset alert' again in this high-profile Monday night clash. The Lions are in prime bounce-back position at home off last Sunday night's lopsided loss in Kansas City. I simply feel they're laying too many points, however, as the Bucs are one team that won't be intimidated walking into Ford Field in a primetime setting. Take Tampa Bay (8*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants are coming off a stunning home win over the Eagles last week and have had a few extra days to prepare for this game having not played since a week ago Thursday. With that being said, i don't like the spot for the G-Men. New York's recent turn-around has come thanks to a resurgence in its ground attack led by dual-threat QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo. The Broncos have repeatedly shown the ability to snuff out opposing ground attacks and have all but erased running quarterbacks. The question becomes whether a Broncos offense that has been held to just 34 points in their last two games can contribute enough to cover this lofty pointspread. I think that it can. We know this group is talented, it simply hasn't been consistent. Here, the Broncos figure to feast on a Giants defense that has struggled all season, both stopping the run and the pass. Take Denver (8*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts will make their second trip to Los Angeles in less than a month as they face the Chargers on Sunday. Their first trip didn't go so well as they dropped a 27-20 decision against the Rams. Of course, that was a hard luck loss with Los Angeles prevailing on a late touchdown (after a Colts defender wiped out and blew the coverage). The Colts got a scare at home against a short-handed Cardinals team last week and I'm sure that helped amp up their preparation for this in-conference clash. The Chargers are dealing with a number of key injuries and only managed to survive in a narrow win in Miami last Sunday. They're just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS over their last three games. I don't envision Los Angeles stopping Indianapolis' offense very often on Sunday and I'm not convinced Justin Herbert can elevate the talent around him quite enough to secure a win in this spot. Take Indianapolis (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Raiders as they finally have some positive momentum on their side off last week's 20-10 win over the Titans. The Chiefs will have to get back up for a divisional opponent after posting a much-needed primetime win over the Lions last Sunday night. Note that you would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time the Chiefs managed to win by a double-digit margin. Last year's two matchups were decided by a grand total of nine points, with both results going the Chiefs way. This line looks inflated to me. Take Las Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Eagles right now after they lost consecutive games at home against the Broncos and on the road against the Giants, in 'upset' fashion. The last time we saw the Vikings on the field was two weeks ago when they rallied for a last-minute win over the Browns overseas. I think Minnesota will be in tough as it returns home with veteran Carson Wentz once again slated to start, this time against his former team. The Eagles have a lot to prove in this spot and come off a mini-bye of their own having not played since a week ago Thursday. While the Vikings defense is tough, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia solve the Brian Flores puzzle and secure a much-needed win. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

We won fading the Jaguars last week as they dropped a 20-12 decision at home against the Seahawks. We'll switch gears and back them this Sunday as they take on the Rams in London. I haven't been overly impressed by anything I've seen from Los Angeles in recent weeks. It was 'upset' in a primetime home game against an undermanned 49ers team two weeks ago before handling the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens and their down-trodden defense in Baltimore last Sunday. I like the spot here for the Jags as they look to bounce back and avoid consecutive losses (both SU and ATS), just as they did back in Week 3 against Houston. Take Jacksonville (8*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Steelers enter this game red hot off three straight wins both SU and ATS. I think they'll be hard-pressed to win by margin no Thursday, however, as they head to Cincinnati for this divisional affair. The Bengals showed me enough good things on Sunday in Green Bay to warrant backing them on a short week. I don't think this is a team that has quit on the season, even on the heels of four straight losses. The fact that they went out and got veteran QB Joe Flacco shows that they still want to fight and what better way to prove that than in front of a national audience in this division game against the red hot Steelers? I think Pittsburgh was made to look more dominant than it actually is in Sunday's 23-9 rout of the lifeless Browns. Cleveland didn't show up for that game and ultimately ended up playing from behind virtually wire-to-wire. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Bengals return home with renewed confidence off Sunday's reasonably close game in Green Bay. The last time the Bengals played in front of their home fans they were boat-raced by a vastly superior Lions squad. Look for them to make amends in this spot. Take Cincinnati (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Buffalo at 7:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bills are a tremendous 'real life' football team but not so great from a betting perspective. They check into Monday's contest in Atlanta riding a three-game ATS losing streak and aren't set up particularly well to deliver the cash in this road favorite spot either. Atlanta comes in off its bye week. It seems like an eternity since we saw the Falcons put up 34 points in a win and cover at home against the Commanders on September 28th. I like the make-up of this Atlanta team and feel it is worthy of our backing in an underdog role catching more than a field goal at home. The Falcons have a ground game that works with arguably the best or at the very least most versatile running back in football in Bijan Robinson, a capable quarterback with a high ceiling in Michael Penix Jr. and an improved defense that enters in good shape from an injury standpoint with cornerback A.J. Terrell having been cleared to play despite a hamstring injury. Take Atlanta.

My selection is on Seattle over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Seattle has looked like a better team on the road than at home this season, notching wins in Pittsburgh and Arizona while going just 1-2 at Lumen Field. I think we see that trend continue this week as the Seahawks travel to face the upstart Jaguars, who sport a 4-1 record following Monday's come-from-behind win over the Chiefs. While the Jags record is impressive, I'm still considering them a 'paper tiger' at this point. I don't love the make-up of the Jacksonville offense. Fortune smiled on them in the Monday nighter against the Chiefs and while on paper, this is a favorable matchup against a short-handed Seattle secondary, I'm not convinced QB Trevor Lawrence can take advantage. Offensively, the Seahawks continue to hum as QB Sam Darnold has gotten off to a fine start with his new team. I think we'll see Seattle get what it wants on offense in this game as well, much like we saw when it faced a tough defense in Pittsburgh earlier in the season. Take Seattle (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While most see this as a 'get right' spot for the Rams off last week's 'upset' loss at home against the 49ers, I'm not sure a win by margin is in the cards. Note that Los Angeles is just 2-7-1 ATS against the number we're working with on Sunday (-7 at the time of writing) going back to the start of last season. Baltimore is coming off its worst performance in years as it was lifeless in last week's beatdown at home against the Texans. There's really nowhere to go but up this week, on both sides of the football. This is still a team that has a winning pedigree and I'm confident the coaching staff will have them better prepared as they look to avoid a fourth straight loss. For the Rams, it would be easy to overlook Baltimore ahead of its trip across the pond to take on the upstart Jaguars next week. Take Baltimore (8*).

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Saints are actually playing pretty good football right now. They gave the Bills all they could handle, on the road no less, two weeks ago and then blasted the Giants last Sunday at home. Now they catch the Patriots in a favorable spot with New England checking in off last Sunday night's massive 'upset' win in Buffalo. I'm still not sold on the Patriots being anywhere close to an elite football team. Look for the Saints to make it hard on them on Sunday as they take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take New Orleans (8*).

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I saw plenty of bettors lining up to back the Browns catching just north of a field goal against the Vikings in London last week. Cleveland nearly won that game but ultimately fell on a last-minute touchdown, failing to cover the spread in the process. Here, no one wants any part of betting the Browns, not with it returning to the USA following that London trip and facing a rested Steelers team coming off its bye week. I think Cleveland is capable of hanging with anyone thanks to its defense, however, and this game should be no exception. Yes, the Steelers have looked good in recording consecutive wins over the Patriots and Vikings. They're suddenly the 'hunted' rather than the 'hunters' in the AFC North as they lead the way with a 3-2 mark. Given the state of the rest of the division it would be easy for Pittsburgh to get ahead of itself right now. Cleveland's offense got a bit of a spark from rookie QB Dillon Gabriel last week. There's really nowhere to go but up after Joe Flacco was ineffective and has since been dealt to the Bengals. This play is about as contrarian as it gets this week. Look for the Browns to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Cleveland (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

This situation couldn't set up much worse for the Giants. While last week's trip to New Orleans may not have appeared to be a strong motivational spot, it should have been as New York had a chance to build some positive momentum for the first time this season after upsetting the Chargers at home the previous week. Instead, the Giants led early but fell apart over the game's final three quarters in a lopsided defeat. Meanwhile, the Eagles appeared to be in cruise control with a big lead against the Broncos at home on Sunday, well on their way to a 5-0 start to the season. However, they let down their guard and ultimately lost, ending their long home winning streak. Needless to say, the defending champions will be in a foul mood ahead of Thursday's divisional matchup with the Giants. I think bettors could be a little hesitant to back the Eagles here, though, after the underdogs won outright in all three primetime games last week (49ers over Rams, Patriots over Bills and Jaguars over Chiefs). I'm not about to put Philadelphia on 'upset alert' in this spot. Instead, I'll call for the Eagles to roll to a convincing divisional road win. Take Philadelphia.

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:20 pm ET on Monday.

The Chiefs are starting to look like the perennial contender everyone expected after a bit of a sluggish start. Patrick Mahomes has been in complete command the last few weeks, and Kansas City’s defense has quietly played some of its best football of the season. With a strong complementary effort on both sides of the ball, this is a team that looks far more balanced than it did in September.

This road test in Jacksonville has all the markings of a potential trap game on paper, but I’m not buying it. The Jaguars, coached by Liam Coen, are coming off an emotional road upset over an injury-depleted San Francisco squad. While that result turned heads, the Jags are still an inconsistent team offensively, especially when facing top-tier defenses. Kansas City has allowed few explosive plays and has forced opponents to sustain long, mistake-free drives to score — something Jacksonville has struggled with at times.

On the other side, Mahomes and company should find success against a Jaguars secondary that has been vulnerable to big passing days throughout the season. Kansas City’s offensive rhythm, led by an increasingly confident receiving corps and a capable ground game, should be enough to keep the pressure on Coen’s team for four quarters.

Even with the Jaguars at home, this feels like a step-up-in-class game they aren’t ready for just yet. The Chiefs are the more complete, battle-tested group and should prove it under the Monday night lights.

Take Kansas City minus the points.

My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Detroit at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Bengals enter this matchup off back-to-back blowout losses, but I expect a much sharper effort here as they return home. There’s still plenty of talent on this roster, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and I think we’ll see some pride on display. Detroit’s defense has been wearing down under the weight of mounting injuries, particularly in the secondary — an area that could be exposed by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Bengals QB Jake Browning is under pressure to perform, and this feels like a spot where he can deliver a steadier effort against a depleted Lions stop unit.

Detroit’s offense is dangerous, but this is a tricky road spot following a string of emotional games. Expect Cincinnati to hang around throughout and potentially threaten to win outright.

Take Cincinnati plus the points.

My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Saints showed some much-needed fight in last week’s narrow loss at Buffalo, a performance that could serve as a turning point after a sluggish start to their season. While their offense still has work to do, this is an ideal matchup to find traction. The Giants have been gashed on the ground all year, surrendering an alarming 6.0 yards per rush, and that weakness should allow New Orleans to dictate tempo from start to finish.

Meanwhile, New York is set up for a letdown after finally picking up its first win of the season — a home upset over a disinterested Chargers squad. Without injured rookie standout Malik Nabers, the Giants offense is thin on playmakers, and quarterback Jaxson Dart could struggle against a Saints defense that continues to play hard despite its record.

This sets up as a get-right spot for New Orleans in front of its home crowd.

Take New Orleans minus the points.

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The setup doesn’t scream Rams from a situational standpoint, as they’re coming off a solid win and cover against the Colts while San Francisco is licking its wounds after an upset loss to Jacksonville. But when you look deeper, it’s hard not to feel this number should be even higher in Los Angeles’ favor. The 49ers are extremely banged up, with QB Brock Purdy unlikely to suit up along with other key contributors. This was already a roster stretched thin, and more injuries on Sunday only add to the problems. Their season is teetering, and short-week road games are hardly the time to piece things together.

The Rams, on the other hand, have played close to flawless football through much of the early season. They could just as easily be undefeated were it not for a wild finish against Philadelphia two weeks back. Matchup-wise, Los Angeles showed last year that it can handle this opponent, earning wins by three and six points in two meetings. In the 27-24 victory, Purdy had a huge day, as did WR Jauan Jennings, but neither is expected to be fully healthy—if available at all—this time around. In the other contest, the Rams still found a way to win on a short week despite being set up poorly off a high-scoring affair.

This time, the stars align much more favorably, and with both teams trending in opposite directions, I see one-sided potential in Los Angeles’ favor.

Take Los Angeles minus the points.

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Raiders were flat in Washington last week, dropping their second straight after a promising Week 1 victory in New England. That result only heightens the urgency here as they return home needing to right the ship. This matchup offers a good opportunity, as Chicago arrives off its first win of the season—a game where the Cowboys did more to beat themselves than the Bears did to earn it. That’s not the type of performance that suddenly transforms a team’s outlook.

I view the Raiders’ offense as having a much higher ceiling than Chicago’s, particularly when it comes to sustaining drives and finishing in the red zone. The Bears still lack consistency and explosiveness, and I don’t believe they’re well equipped to keep pace if Las Vegas comes out fast.

This also sets up as a potential breakout game for Ashton Jeanty, who has shown flashes and could be leaned on heavily in this matchup to help balance the Raiders’ attack. If he delivers, it only widens the gap between these two teams.

Take Las Vegas minus the points.

My selection is on New England minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Patriots enter this matchup in a pivotal spot. Sitting at 1-2 and off a narrow home loss to Pittsburgh, New England has its back against the wall to avoid falling to 0-3 on its own field. That urgency should be a strong motivator, and it’s the type of situation that plays directly into why the team brought Mike Vrabel in as head coach. His ability to rally a group in a must-respond spot figures to be tested here, and I expect the Pats to answer.

Carolina comes in fresh off a 30-0 rout of Atlanta, but the context matters. The Falcons were in a classic letdown spot following their emotional primetime upset of Minnesota the previous week, and they never showed up. That allowed the Panthers to look far more dominant than they actually are. This is still an inconsistent offense that’s prone to stalling against disciplined defenses, and New England’s physical front should be able to control the tempo and force Carolina into uncomfortable passing situations.

Offensively, the Patriots don’t need a fireworks display to cover this number. A steady run game, opportunistic play-calling, and avoiding the mistakes that hurt them last week will likely be enough. Given the matchup and the motivational edge, New England should impose its will, particularly as the game progresses.

Take New England minus the points.

My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a classic case of a line being inflated by early-season records. The Chargers may be 3-0, but they haven’t exactly overwhelmed opponents, and now they face a tricky cross-country road trip for an early kickoff without one of their defensive anchors in Khalil Mack. That absence could be more significant than it looks on paper, especially against a Giants team that’s desperate to get into the win column.

The quarterback change to rookie Jaxson Dart should serve as a spark for New York. Russell Wilson’s struggles were holding the offense back, and while play-calling deserves some blame as well, a more mobile and decisive option under center could open up new dimensions. Even if Dart isn’t perfect in his first start, his presence alone should give the Giants a much-needed lift and force Los Angeles to adjust its defensive approach.

I’ve long felt the Chargers offense is more “steady” than “explosive,” even with Justin Herbert at the helm. If New York’s defense can limit chunk plays and keep Herbert uncomfortable, this game could quickly turn into a grinder where the points being offered loom large.

Look for the Giants to play with urgency, keep it close throughout, and have a shot to steal it late.

Take New York plus the points.

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Last week was a reality check for the Falcons. They went into Carolina with momentum and a golden opportunity to roll over a winless Panthers squad, only to get embarrassed in a 30-0 shutout. That type of loss can either send a team spiraling or spark a bounce-back, and I’m betting on the latter. Atlanta returns home, where it showed real competitiveness against Tampa Bay in Week 1, and this is the kind of stage where it needs to reestablish itself as a legitimate contender.

On the other side, Washington comes in off its most complete performance of the season, hammering the Raiders despite being without Jayden Daniels. But I think that result was more about the ineptitude of Las Vegas than a sudden transformation by the Commanders. This matchup presents a much stiffer test. Atlanta’s defensive front can create problems for Washington’s line, and the Falcons’ playmakers should find more room to work against a Commanders defense that can be vulnerable when pressured consistently.

This is also a key spot for Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. He’s been under fire with some clamoring for Kirk Cousins to step in, but this matchup sets up well for him to quiet that noise and prove he can lead the offense effectively. Look for Atlanta to simplify its approach, lean on its strengths, and wear down Washington as the game progresses.

Take Atlanta minus the points.

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter at 2-1, but I see a clear difference in terms of trajectory and upside. Pittsburgh is fresh off a win in New England, but that game highlighted many of the same offensive concerns that have lingered since Week 1. The Steelers struck quickly with a pair of early touchdowns but then went stagnant, struggling to generate sustained drives. That type of inconsistency is difficult to overcome, especially when stepping up in competition.

Minnesota, on the other hand, looked sharp in its rout of Cincinnati last week. While the Bengals were missing Joe Burrow, I was impressed by the way the Vikings’ offense took command and maintained rhythm throughout. Carson Wentz showed the poise of a veteran, making smart throws and keeping the offense on schedule. The Vikings also showed balance, something they’ll need to carry over into Dublin on Sunday morning.

Given the neutral-site setting and the short number, I simply trust Minnesota more to sustain drives and make the key plays late. Their veteran quarterback and offensive upside give them the edge in what could otherwise look like a toss-up matchup on paper.

Take Minnesota minus the points.

My selection is on the Lions plus the points and the under between Detroit and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Both teams come in off impressive divisional wins, and both sit at 1-1, making this a meaningful early-season measuring stick. While the public will be drawn to Baltimore as a short favorite and to the over after those lopsided results, I see better value in going against that line of thinking.

Detroit was written off quickly after an ugly Week 1 loss in Green Bay, but that game doesn’t define their season. The Lions responded well last week, and this looks like another spot where they can hang around as an underdog. Baltimore is always tough at home, but their offense still has question marks, particularly in consistency and finishing drives. The same can be said of the Lions, who took advantage of a putrid Bears defense last Sunday but had major issues putting points on the board in their lone previous road game against the Packers. 

With both teams capable on defense and each offense having some vulnerabilities, I expect a grind-it-out style game where possessions matter and points don’t come easy. The gap between these two teams is slimmer than the market suggests, and in a game that feels destined to come down to the fourth quarter, I’m happy to take the points with Detroit.

Take the Lions plus the points and the under.

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The market seems eager to abandon Denver after last week’s heartbreaking loss in Indianapolis, but I see that as an overreaction. The Broncos have shown enough through two weeks to suggest they’re a competitive bunch, and this feels like a good rebound spot.

On the flip side, Los Angeles is suddenly the “flavor of the week” after a 2-0 start. But history isn’t on the Chargers’ side — they haven’t opened a season 3-0 in over two decades. This week sets up as a tough situational challenge as well. The Chargers are coming off a Monday night road blowout in Las Vegas, returning home on a short week while still not having played a true home game this season after opening in Brazil against the Chiefs.

Factor in that Los Angeles is also gunning for a third straight division win in as many weeks — something difficult to sustain this early — and the door is wide open for Denver to hang around and potentially steal one.

Take Denver plus the points.

My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Not only are the Colts being asked to get off to a 3-0 start with this line but they're being asked to win by margin in doing so. While Indianapolis has impressed through its first two games, this will be its first road game of the season and a division one at that. The Colts needed to 'empty the tank' in last week's improbable last-second win over the Broncos. I've seen enough good things from the Titans, even though they are off to an 0-2 start, to back them with the generous helping of points on Sunday. Note that Tennessee's schedule won't get any easier from here as it will play its next three games on the road starting with a date against the Texans next week. The Colts have won four straight meetings in this series but both victories in Nashville came by just three points. Sometimes you have to back bad teams to win money in the NFL and that's what we'll do here. Take Tennessee (8*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Jets were humbled last week in Buffalo, but that loss came at the hands of one of the NFL’s elite teams. Sunday presents a much different challenge. While Tampa Bay has impressed in starting 2-0, those wins came against the Falcons and Texans—two opponents that haven’t exactly faced much market respect. The Bucs’ defensive numbers look better than they really are, and the loss of interior force Calijah Kancey is a significant hit as they step up in class.

On offense, Tampa Bay’s biggest concern is up front. Its offensive line was a major liability in Monday night’s last-second win in Houston, where Baker Mayfield spent most of the night scrambling under heavy pressure. Playing on a short week against a Jets team still searching for its first victory only adds to the challenge.

New York makes a quarterback switch to Tyrod Taylor with Justin Fields sidelined. While some might see that as a downgrade, I don’t. Taylor’s efficiency and ability to avoid turnovers give the Jets a steadier presence, and he draws a Bucs defense that hasn’t yet been tested by a competent passing attack.

This sets up as a spot where the Jets, desperate at 0-2 and catching generous points, keep things tight against a Tampa Bay squad with more issues under the surface than its record suggests.

Take New York plus the points.

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We won fading the Texans on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars on Sunday. Fading the Jags as a home favorite is a fairly easy decision, especially when you consider the Texans are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last four trips to Duval County. I don't think there's any reason to knock the Texans off back-to-back losses to open the season as those were two very difficult games against the Rams on the road and Buccaneers at home. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 1-1 after routing the lowly Panthers in its season-opener before falling to the defense-optional Bengals last Sunday in Cincinnati. While I do think the Jags have some upside under first-year head coach Liam Coen, it's going to take some time for him to build the team he wants. Going from running the Bucs multi-pronged offense to the Jags is quite simply a tall task. Houston didn't lose its third game until Halloween last year. Look for it to avoid that early fate on Sunday. Take Houston (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a textbook situation as the Steelers check in off an 'upset' loss at home and are now favored on the road against a Patriots squad that's fresh off an 'upset' victory in Miami last week. We're not overly high on the Steelers this season but will pick our spots to back them and this is one as they come off that lopsided defeat at the hands of the Seahawks in a game that wasn't as one-sided as the final score indicated. The Pats were made to look like offensive juggernauts against a bad Dolphins defense last Sunday. Expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

It’s no secret that Miami is in the early stages of a major organizational reset, but that doesn’t mean the players on the field will fold. In fact, situations like this often bring out a strong effort from guys looking to prove themselves, whether it be for long-term roster spots or for potential opportunities elsewhere. While the Dolphins’ start has been ugly, Thursday offers a prime chance for them to punch back against a division rival that has dominated this matchup in recent years.

Buffalo deserves credit for starting 2-0, first with a dramatic comeback win over Baltimore and then by avoiding a letdown against the Jets. But this spot sets up as more of a “handle business and move on” type game, especially with a short week before another manageable matchup against New Orleans. The Bills’ defense is also nursing some injuries, which could open the door for Miami to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers suggest.

Buffalo has won six straight in the series, but three of the last four home victories came by a field goal margin. That history, combined with a potentially inflated line thanks to the public flocking to the undefeated Bills, gives us reason to believe the Dolphins can hang tough. Take Miami plus the points.

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Houston at 7 pm et on Monday.

The Buccaneers looked sharp in their opener, going on the road and handling Atlanta. That type of effort sets a tone, and I think this is a team playing with a chip on its shoulder early in the season. The offense showed balance in Week 1, and there’s room for it to get even better as the year progresses. With some legitimate playmakers, Tampa Bay has the upside to trade punches with almost anyone.

Houston, meanwhile, is being priced more on reputation than reality. The Texans struggled to generate much offensively in their opener against the Rams, and their conservative play-calling didn’t help. More concerning is their offensive line, which continues to spring leaks and puts unnecessary pressure on the backfield. That’s not a recipe for covering spreads against motivated opponents. This looks like a favorable spot for the Bucs to keep their momentum going and potentially leave with another outright win.

Take Tampa Bay plus the points.

My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

It’s not often that we see the Chiefs catching points at home, and that in itself creates value in this matchup. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing loss in Brazil against the Chargers, but with Andy Reid at the helm, they’ve consistently shown the ability to respond positively in bounce-back situations. That’s especially true in spots like this, where they can use the underdog label as added motivation.

Philadelphia got the win in its opener but didn’t cover, and the performance left plenty to be desired. The Eagles have a history of sluggish starts to seasons despite their overall strength – just last year, they were upset in Week 2 by Atlanta. Facing a desperate Chiefs team in Arrowhead is no easy ask, and I believe the number is inflated due to Philadelphia’s reputation as defending champs. This looks like the right time to step in on the other side.

Take Kansas City plus the points.

My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

San Francisco got the job done in Seattle in Week 1 but didn’t escape unscathed, suffering several key injuries that will significantly test their depth on both sides of the ball. Even before those setbacks, I felt this matchup was a tricky one for the 49ers. Asking them to go on the road for a second straight week, this time short-handed, is no small task. The line has shifted heavily, but even so, I don’t believe it fully reflects the potential impact of those missing pieces.

New Orleans isn’t the type of team I’ll be looking to back often this season, but situations like this are where value can emerge. The Saints looked sluggish offensively in their opener against Arizona, but their defense kept them competitive, and there’s an urgency factor at play here as they aim to avoid falling into an early 0-2 hole at home. If they can simply get a little more out of their offense, that could be enough to keep this one tight and perhaps even steal the win outright.

Take New Orleans plus the points.

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills are drawing plenty of attention this week after their primetime shootout victory over the Ravens. That type of game can inflate perception, though, and I see this as a potential letdown spot as they now hit the road against a divisional opponent. Buffalo’s defense gave up 40 points last week, which shouldn’t be overlooked, and the Bills have a history of tighter-than-expected games when visiting the Jets.

New York may have fallen short in its opener, but the offense showed life by putting up 30 points, which is more than enough to build confidence heading into Week 2. The defense struggled against Aaron Rodgers, but that unit has the talent to respond, especially at home. Recent history supports the case for the Jets, too, as Buffalo hasn’t won by more than a field goal in New Jersey in three straight meetings, losing two of those outright.

Take New York plus the points.

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I liked what I saw from both of these teams in Week 1. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Commanders in a game that has a good chance of going right down to the wire. Washington QB Jayden Daniels didn't have his best performance on Sunday. That was a tough matchup though, against a divisional opponent that boasts a fierce pass rush and defense as a whole in the Giants. It would have been easy for the Commanders to suffer a letdown of sorts after making such massive gains last season. Instead, Washington turned in a workman-like effort and enters this NFC showdown with the Packers sporting a 1-0 record. Green Bay will get plenty of hype entering this matchup after it thoroughly dominated the division rival Lions on Sunday. Micah Parsons made a splash in his Pack debut and the offense looked to be firing on all cylinders. I simply don't believe there's enough separating these two teams to warrant the pointspread being north of a field goal (at the time of writing). Both teams impressed in their own right in Week 1 and we'll grab the points but won't bat an eye if the Commanders manage to spring the 'upset' on Thursday night. Take Washington (10*).

NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I can understand the logic behind a lot of so-called sharp bettors backing the Bears as a home underdog in this game. After all, the Vikings are missing some key contributors due to injury and suspension and will be giving QB J.J. McCarthy his first ever NFL start, on the road against a division rival no less. With that being said, I still think Minnesota is the right side. We saw the 'same old story' from a lot of perennially disappointing teams this week including the Cowboys, Giants and Browns among others. I'll put the Bears in a similar boat (until proven otherwise). I feel that it's going to take some time for first time head coach Ben Johnson to get what he wants out of this team. The offense does figure to improve, but this is a difficult season-opener, even if Johnson did successfully navigate the Vikes defense as offensive coordinator with a more talented Lions team. Even with a new-look offense led by McCarthy, I think the Vikes have a lot of continuity and upside on both sides of the football. And I don't think they would have let Sam Darnold walk if they didn't truly believe McCarthy could step in and operate the offense efficiently. Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The spectre of Russell Wilson leading the Giants offense keeps this number where it is but I think this game is going to be more about New York running the football and playing good defense as they look to spring the 'upset' in Washington.

The Commanders were one of the big stories last season, particularly in the playoffs when they stunned the Lions in the Divisional Round. They're going to be good again this year but I think asking them to win by margin against a divisional opponent (that gave them some trouble with a less talented team last year) is a lot. 

Lost in all of the hype around Washington's offense is the fact that its defense could be among the weaker units in the league. 

I think the Giants are starting to show signs of life under head coach Brian Daboll and he finally has the roster he wants here in 2025. Expect New York to come out and make a statement that it won't be pushed around this season. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 (first half) over Kansas City at 8 pm et on Friday.

I like the Chargers to get off to a hot start this season but whether they can sustain that momentum for a full 60 minutes on Friday night in Sao Paulo remains to be seen. The Chargers have certainly hung tough with the mighty Chiefs in recent years, often falling just short of 'upset' victories. That scenario could very well play out again on Friday night, but I do think Los Angeles will be able to stay on level ground with Kansas City in the game's first 30 minutes. Expect there to be a bit of a feeling-out process early on as both teams try to acclimate themselves to the field conditions in Brazil (you may remember it was a bit of a mess last year). Note that the Chargers return nine of 11 starters from last year's defense - a unit that was 'elite' by many metrics. There's also some element of surprise when it comes to the Chargers offense with new and old faces in the fold including rookie RB Omarion Hampton and WR Keenan Allen (returning after a stint with the Bears). I simply think we'll see the Chargers get out on their front foot while the Chiefs could take a bit of time to settle in (and shake off the Super Bowl hangover). Give me the fresher team plus the points in the first half only. Take Los Angeles +1.5 (first half). 

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.

While Kansas City is aiming for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl title, there's a strong case to be made that the Eagles are being undervalued in this matchup. Despite some early season struggles, Philadelphia has been among the league’s best teams all year and possesses one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. The extra week of preparation should benefit the Eagles significantly, allowing their offensive line to get back to full strength and giving Jalen Hurts additional time to recover. When at their best, the Eagles have shown the ability to control games with their balanced attack, and I expect them to lean heavily on their ground game and physicality in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense off the field.

Kansas City has certainly hit its stride down the stretch, covering the spread in four consecutive games, but it has been a different story over the course of the full season. The Chiefs finished just 8-10-1 ATS, often struggling to put teams away despite their success in the win column. Philadelphia, meanwhile, enters with a 13-7 ATS record and will be eager to embrace the underdog role in this spot. The Eagles’ defensive front has the capability to disrupt Mahomes and force him off his spot, something few teams have successfully done in recent weeks. If the Eagles can generate pressure and avoid allowing Mahomes to extend plays, they should have a legitimate chance to win this game outright.

While Kansas City holds an edge in terms of experience and coaching, I don’t see a significant talent gap on the field. Philadelphia’s offensive and defensive lines should give them an advantage in the trenches, and if they can dictate the pace of play, they’ll be in a strong position to win this game outright. With the potential for a close contest, I’ll grab the points with the Eagles and also suggest a sprinkle on Saquon Barkley to win the game MVP.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday.

Kansas City is on the brink of making history, aiming for a record-setting third straight Super Bowl title, and this matchup with Buffalo feels like another stepping stone. While public sentiment may lean toward rooting against the Chiefs, that only serves to fuel Kansas City's fire as it prepares to face its playoff rival once again. The Chiefs hold a psychological edge, having won three consecutive postseason meetings against the Bills, proving they know how to rise to the occasion when it matters most.

Kansas City enters this contest following consecutive ATS defeats (based on the closing number of -9.5 against Houston last week) but had delivered three straight ATS wins prior to that, showing it’s capable of covering when the stakes are high. Conversely, Buffalo has won and covered its first two playoff games but has yet to show consistency from a betting perspective, with its longest ATS streak this season topping out at three games.

Buffalo's defense, particularly its secondary, might have been a key factor in this matchup, but injuries have created significant concerns. With Benford, Johnson, Rapp, and Milano all dealing with ailments, the Bills are vulnerable against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense.

Expect the Chiefs to exploit Buffalo's defensive weaknesses and capitalize on their playoff experience to punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.

Take Kansas City.

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles and Commanders split their two regular-season meetings, but it’s important to note that Washington needed a massive effort, including 36 points and an early exit by Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, to secure its win. This NFC Championship matchup looks far less favorable for Washington, which enters on an improbable seven-game winning streak that included consecutive upset victories on the road against the Buccaneers and Lions.

While the Eagles have faced criticism for a relatively weak schedule, Washington has faced an even lighter slate of opponents by most metrics. The Commanders’ Cinderella run has been impressive, but this spot may prove too tough to overcome, particularly against an Eagles squad that is 9-1 straight-up at home this season, with an average winning margin of 9.5 points per game.

Philadelphia, with home-field advantage and momentum on its side, is poised to roll on Sunday and secure its Super Bowl berth.

Take Philadelphia.

Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

This is a tough spot for the Rams, who must travel cross-country on a short week after their Monday night 'upset' victory over the Vikings. The physical and emotional toll of that game, combined with the travel, puts Los Angeles at a disadvantage against a well-rested and focused Eagles squad.

Philadelphia has already proven its superiority over the Rams with a decisive road victory earlier in the season. Now, the Eagles return home, where they’ve been a dominant force this season, buoyed by their relentless defense and potent ground game. The forecasted cold, windy, and snowy conditions are likely to favor the Eagles' style of play, which emphasizes controlling the line of scrimmage and pounding the football.

Expect Philadelphia to stick to its strengths and wear down the Rams, capitalizing on their travel fatigue and the challenging weather conditions to secure a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Los Angeles 16.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Washington at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

The Lions are in an excellent position as they host a Washington team riding high after a three-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread, capped by an impressive upset win over Tampa Bay on the road last Sunday night. While the Commanders have been impressive, Detroit offers a significant challenge, especially at home, where the Lions have consistently excelled.

Detroit enters this contest well-rested after being idle last weekend, also riding its own three-game SU and ATS winning streak. At 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread this season, the Lions have proven their mettle against a tougher schedule compared to Washington. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been less reliable on the road, posting just a 4-5 ATS mark away from home.

The Lions’ well-rounded offense and opportunistic defense should be enough to control this matchup and put an end to Washington’s recent run of success. Look for Detroit to take care of business in convincing fashion.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Detroit 34, Washington 20.

My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

The Chiefs find themselves in a prime position coming off two consecutive "off weeks" after resting their starters in Week 18 and earning a bye through the Wild Card round. The extra rest and preparation time should pay dividends as they take on a Texans team riding high following consecutive upset victories, including a decisive win over the Chargers last weekend. However, this matchup presents a much tougher challenge for Houston.

Kansas City already proved its superiority over the Texans earlier this season, winning a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggested. While the Chiefs took a 38-0 loss to Denver in Week 18, it’s worth noting that none of their key players were on the field for that game. Now, the Chiefs are as healthy and prepared as they’ve been all season.

In contrast, the Texans are dealing with a series of injuries that could significantly hamper their chances in this spot. Facing an efficient, high-powered Kansas City offense at Arrowhead Stadium is a daunting task, particularly for a Houston team that may be due for a letdown after an emotional playoff victory.

Take Kansas City. Projected score: Kansas City 34, Houston 17.

Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers will be looking to avenge their heart-breaking season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil as they clash once again, this time in a playoff setting. Green Bay may not carry a lot of momentum into this game after finishing the regular season with back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread. However, this is a battle-tested team capable of rising to the occasion.

Philadelphia enters this contest with a stellar 14-3 record and closed the regular season with consecutive victories both SU and ATS. While that resume looks impressive, it's worth noting the Eagles benefited from one of the league’s weakest schedules.

Green Bay has the tools to keep this game competitive, and I expect a motivated effort from the Packers as they seek redemption. The playoff stakes, combined with their familiarity with the Eagles, should help them hang tough, with this one likely coming down to the wire.

Take Green Bay. Projected score: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 21.

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

We'll take the points with the Steelers as they look to exact revenge against their AFC North rival, Baltimore, in this high-stakes playoff matchup. Pittsburgh endured a humiliating loss when these teams last met three weeks ago, but that result should serve as added motivation for Mike Tomlin's squad on Saturday night.

While the Steelers enter this game on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS), they've consistently shown resilience in divisional matchups, often finding ways to keep games close. Pittsburgh's defense remains its strongest asset and is more than capable of creating turnovers and limiting Baltimore's high-powered attack. Offensively, the Steelers have struggled, but their balanced approach could benefit from facing a Ravens defense that has occasionally been vulnerable against physical, grind-it-out teams.

Baltimore has been red-hot, winning and covering in four straight games by wide margins, thanks to an offense that has topped 30 points in each of those contests. However, the loss of standout wide receiver Zay Flowers is a significant blow, as his ability to stretch the field has been instrumental in opening up the Ravens' passing game. Without Flowers, Pittsburgh's defense will have a clearer path to disrupting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense.

In a rivalry as fierce as this one, laying a large number of points is always a risk. The Steelers are more than capable of keeping this game competitive with their physicality and familiarity with Baltimore's tendencies. Divisional playoff games often come down to the wire, and this one should be no exception.

Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.

AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.

Despite their struggles this season, I see this as a strong spot for the Jets to close out the campaign on a high note. New York enters this contest off a pair of lopsided losses, including a 40-14 drubbing in Buffalo last week. However, this matchup against Miami offers an opportunity for redemption, particularly with revenge on the table following a 32-26 setback to the Dolphins earlier in the season.

Miami comes in riding the high of back-to-back victories over the 49ers and Browns, but both of those wins came against lackluster opponents, and the Dolphins were far from dominant. Cleveland, for instance, squandered multiple chances to make last Sunday's game competitive, ultimately undone by its own offensive woes.

The Jets, for all their issues, have shown flashes of competitiveness throughout the season and will relish the chance to spoil Miami's playoff hopes. Look for New York to come through as a slight home favorite.

Take New York. Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 20.