Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-25 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday. Kansas City is on the brink of making history, aiming for a record-setting third straight Super Bowl title, and this matchup with Buffalo feels like another stepping stone. While public sentiment may lean toward rooting against the Chiefs, that only serves to fuel Kansas City's fire as it prepares to face its playoff rival once again. The Chiefs hold a psychological edge, having won three consecutive postseason meetings against the Bills, proving they know how to rise to the occasion when it matters most. Kansas City enters this contest following consecutive ATS defeats (based on the closing number of -9.5 against Houston last week) but had delivered three straight ATS wins prior to that, showing it’s capable of covering when the stakes are high. Conversely, Buffalo has won and covered its first two playoff games but has yet to show consistency from a betting perspective, with its longest ATS streak this season topping out at three games. Buffalo's defense, particularly its secondary, might have been a key factor in this matchup, but injuries have created significant concerns. With Benford, Johnson, Rapp, and Milano all dealing with ailments, the Bills are vulnerable against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense. Expect the Chiefs to exploit Buffalo's defensive weaknesses and capitalize on their playoff experience to punch their ticket to another Super Bowl. Take Kansas City. |
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01-26-25 | Commanders v. Eagles -6 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 68 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles and Commanders split their two regular-season meetings, but it’s important to note that Washington needed a massive effort, including 36 points and an early exit by Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, to secure its win. This NFC Championship matchup looks far less favorable for Washington, which enters on an improbable seven-game winning streak that included consecutive upset victories on the road against the Buccaneers and Lions. While the Eagles have faced criticism for a relatively weak schedule, Washington has faced an even lighter slate of opponents by most metrics. The Commanders’ Cinderella run has been impressive, but this spot may prove too tough to overcome, particularly against an Eagles squad that is 9-1 straight-up at home this season, with an average winning margin of 9.5 points per game. Philadelphia, with home-field advantage and momentum on its side, is poised to roll on Sunday and secure its Super Bowl berth. Take Philadelphia. |
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01-19-25 | Rams v. Eagles -6 | Top | 22-28 | Push | 0 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm ET on Sunday. This is a tough spot for the Rams, who must travel cross-country on a short week after their Monday night 'upset' victory over the Vikings. The physical and emotional toll of that game, combined with the travel, puts Los Angeles at a disadvantage against a well-rested and focused Eagles squad. Philadelphia has already proven its superiority over the Rams with a decisive road victory earlier in the season. Now, the Eagles return home, where they’ve been a dominant force this season, buoyed by their relentless defense and potent ground game. The forecasted cold, windy, and snowy conditions are likely to favor the Eagles' style of play, which emphasizes controlling the line of scrimmage and pounding the football. Expect Philadelphia to stick to its strengths and wear down the Rams, capitalizing on their travel fatigue and the challenging weather conditions to secure a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game. Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Los Angeles 16. |
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01-18-25 | Commanders v. Lions -9 | 45-31 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Washington at 8 pm ET on Saturday. The Lions are in an excellent position as they host a Washington team riding high after a three-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread, capped by an impressive upset win over Tampa Bay on the road last Sunday night. While the Commanders have been impressive, Detroit offers a significant challenge, especially at home, where the Lions have consistently excelled. Detroit enters this contest well-rested after being idle last weekend, also riding its own three-game SU and ATS winning streak. At 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 against the spread this season, the Lions have proven their mettle against a tougher schedule compared to Washington. Meanwhile, the Commanders have been less reliable on the road, posting just a 4-5 ATS mark away from home. The Lions’ well-rounded offense and opportunistic defense should be enough to control this matchup and put an end to Washington’s recent run of success. Look for Detroit to take care of business in convincing fashion. Take Detroit. Projected score: Detroit 34, Washington 20. |
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01-18-25 | Texans v. Chiefs -8.5 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday. The Chiefs find themselves in a prime position coming off two consecutive "off weeks" after resting their starters in Week 18 and earning a bye through the Wild Card round. The extra rest and preparation time should pay dividends as they take on a Texans team riding high following consecutive upset victories, including a decisive win over the Chargers last weekend. However, this matchup presents a much tougher challenge for Houston. Kansas City already proved its superiority over the Texans earlier this season, winning a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggested. While the Chiefs took a 38-0 loss to Denver in Week 18, it’s worth noting that none of their key players were on the field for that game. Now, the Chiefs are as healthy and prepared as they’ve been all season. In contrast, the Texans are dealing with a series of injuries that could significantly hamper their chances in this spot. Facing an efficient, high-powered Kansas City offense at Arrowhead Stadium is a daunting task, particularly for a Houston team that may be due for a letdown after an emotional playoff victory. Take Kansas City. Projected score: Kansas City 34, Houston 17. |
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01-12-25 | Packers +5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Packers will be looking to avenge their heart-breaking season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil as they clash once again, this time in a playoff setting. Green Bay may not carry a lot of momentum into this game after finishing the regular season with back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread. However, this is a battle-tested team capable of rising to the occasion. Philadelphia enters this contest with a stellar 14-3 record and closed the regular season with consecutive victories both SU and ATS. While that resume looks impressive, it's worth noting the Eagles benefited from one of the league’s weakest schedules. Green Bay has the tools to keep this game competitive, and I expect a motivated effort from the Packers as they seek redemption. The playoff stakes, combined with their familiarity with the Eagles, should help them hang tough, with this one likely coming down to the wire. Take Green Bay. Projected score: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 21. |
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01-11-25 | Steelers +10 v. Ravens | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday. We'll take the points with the Steelers as they look to exact revenge against their AFC North rival, Baltimore, in this high-stakes playoff matchup. Pittsburgh endured a humiliating loss when these teams last met three weeks ago, but that result should serve as added motivation for Mike Tomlin's squad on Saturday night. While the Steelers enter this game on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS), they've consistently shown resilience in divisional matchups, often finding ways to keep games close. Pittsburgh's defense remains its strongest asset and is more than capable of creating turnovers and limiting Baltimore's high-powered attack. Offensively, the Steelers have struggled, but their balanced approach could benefit from facing a Ravens defense that has occasionally been vulnerable against physical, grind-it-out teams. Baltimore has been red-hot, winning and covering in four straight games by wide margins, thanks to an offense that has topped 30 points in each of those contests. However, the loss of standout wide receiver Zay Flowers is a significant blow, as his ability to stretch the field has been instrumental in opening up the Ravens' passing game. Without Flowers, Pittsburgh's defense will have a clearer path to disrupting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. In a rivalry as fierce as this one, laying a large number of points is always a risk. The Steelers are more than capable of keeping this game competitive with their physicality and familiarity with Baltimore's tendencies. Divisional playoff games often come down to the wire, and this one should be no exception. Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20. |
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01-05-25 | Dolphins v. Jets | Top | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday. Despite their struggles this season, I see this as a strong spot for the Jets to close out the campaign on a high note. New York enters this contest off a pair of lopsided losses, including a 40-14 drubbing in Buffalo last week. However, this matchup against Miami offers an opportunity for redemption, particularly with revenge on the table following a 32-26 setback to the Dolphins earlier in the season. Miami comes in riding the high of back-to-back victories over the 49ers and Browns, but both of those wins came against lackluster opponents, and the Dolphins were far from dominant. Cleveland, for instance, squandered multiple chances to make last Sunday's game competitive, ultimately undone by its own offensive woes. The Jets, for all their issues, have shown flashes of competitiveness throughout the season and will relish the chance to spoil Miami's playoff hopes. Look for New York to come through as a slight home favorite. Take New York. Projected score: Jets 24, Dolphins 20. |
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01-05-25 | Jaguars v. Colts -3 | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday. This matchup sets up well for the Colts as they look to close out their season with a win and avenge a 37-34 loss in Jacksonville earlier this year. Indianapolis enters this game off a disappointing loss to the Giants in New Jersey last Sunday, a performance that should serve as motivation to finish strong in front of the home crowd. Jacksonville, on the other hand, could find itself in a letdown spot. The Jaguars are fresh off a 20-13 victory over Tennessee in their home finale, a game that carried more emotional weight than this "meaningless" season-ender. While Jacksonville has shown flashes of improvement at times this season, their road performances remain inconsistent, and it’s reasonable to question their level of focus and intensity here. Look for Indianapolis to take advantage of the situation, control the tempo, and secure a victory by margin. Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Colts 30, Jaguars 17. |
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01-04-25 | Bengals v. Steelers +2.5 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm ET on Saturday. Cincinnati enters this game on a high, having won four straight both straight up and against the spread, with their playoff hopes still alive. However, the Bengals have enjoyed favorable conditions at home against teams like the Broncos and Browns in recent weeks. This matchup in Pittsburgh, though, will present a different challenge. The Steelers will be hungry to spoil Cincinnati's playoff aspirations and have had extra time to prepare after a tough Christmas Day loss to the Chiefs at home. Expect Pittsburgh to come out with a renewed sense of urgency in front of their home crowd. Pittsburgh had been playing solid football prior to this three-game slide, going 7-1 straight up and against the spread over their previous eight contests. They are more than capable of bouncing back at home, particularly with their defense likely to play a key role in keeping the Bengals' offense in check. The Steelers will not go down quietly, and their playoff hopes may be dashed, but they will take pride in spoiling Cincinnati’s chances. Given the Steelers' resilience and the cold, challenging conditions in Pittsburgh, this game has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Look for the Steelers to keep it close and cover the spread. Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Steelers 23, Bengals 20. |
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01-04-25 | Browns +20 v. Ravens | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday. The Browns have endured a tough season, entering this matchup on a five-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Despite their struggles, this divisional clash offers an opportunity for Cleveland to play spoiler and end their campaign on a high note. Divisional games often bring out the best in underdogs, and I expect the Browns to rise to the occasion, particularly with nothing to lose. Baltimore comes into this contest on a roll, riding a three-game winning streak both straight up and ATS. The Ravens dominated in a 31-2 victory over Houston on Christmas Day and have had extra time to rest and prepare. However, with the playoffs looming, this could be a spot where Baltimore takes its foot off the gas. A victory is likely all they need, with a margin of victory being less critical, especially in what promises to be cold, windy conditions. Given the circumstances, the Ravens may struggle to cover the sizable spread against a Browns team that figures to play with pride and determination. Expect Cleveland to keep this one closer than expected. Take Cleveland. Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 16. |
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12-29-24 | Dolphins v. Browns +3.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday. The Browns will look to near the end of a dismal season on a positive note as they play their final home game of the campaign. Despite their four-game losing streak both SU and ATS, Cleveland should be motivated to play spoiler against a Dolphins team that still clings to slim playoff hopes. Miami comes into this matchup off an emotional 'upset' win over the 49ers last week, but it hasn't performed well on the road this season. The Dolphins are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from home, averaging a meager 15.3 points per game in those contests. Given the low total in this matchup, points will come at a premium, favoring the underdog Browns, who should be able to keep this game competitive. Miami's offense has shown inconsistencies away from South Florida, and Cleveland's defense is capable of rising to the occasion. Take Cleveland. Projected score: Miami 17, Cleveland 16. |
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12-29-24 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Buccaneers return home looking to bounce back after a disappointing 'upset' loss in Dallas last Sunday night. Despite that setback, Tampa Bay has been playing solid football, winning four of its last five games SU and covering the spread in five of its last seven contests. This week, the Bucs face a Panthers squad that is coming off an emotionally charged 36-30 victory over Arizona. While that snapped Carolina's four-game skid, it may leave the Panthers vulnerable to a letdown. Carolina has enjoyed a strong run ATS recently, going 6-1 over its last seven games, but that record has been padded by situations as heavy double-digit underdogs, which is not the case here. The Buccaneers' balanced offense and opportunistic defense should prove too much for the Panthers in this divisional matchup, especially with Tampa Bay playing at home, where they’ve historically performed well. Take Tampa Bay. Projected score: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 13. |
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12-28-24 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Rams | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm ET on Saturday. While the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention following last week's disappointing 'upset' loss in Carolina, they should still relish the opportunity to play spoiler against their divisional rivals, the Rams. Arizona has been competitive in recent matchups with Los Angeles, and there’s reason to believe it can keep this game close. The Rams enter riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. However, those victories came against inconsistent opponents, and they’ve logged plenty of miles recently with wins in San Francisco and New York. This contest marks another tough spot for Los Angeles, particularly with a playoff berth within their grasp, perhaps leading to a less-than-urgent approach. Arizona has shown fight in similar spoiler roles before and is catching the Rams as an inflated favorite. With nearly a touchdown of cushion, I expect the Cardinals to keep this one close and potentially take it down to the wire. Take Arizona. Projected score: Los Angeles 23, Arizona 20. |
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12-25-24 | Chiefs v. Steelers +3 | 29-10 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm ET on Wednesday. Kansas City enters this Christmas Day matchup riding a five-game winning streak, covering the spread in each of its last two contests. The Chiefs remain a formidable opponent, but this could be a tricky spot for them as they travel to face a Pittsburgh team desperate to end a two-game skid, both straight-up and ATS. The Steelers are expected to get a boost with the anticipated return of WR George Pickens, adding a dynamic element to their offense. While Pittsburgh has struggled recently, its defense, particularly its front line, is well-equipped to disrupt a Kansas City offense still dealing with inconsistencies along its offensive line. With Pittsburgh looking to deliver a strong performance in front of its home crowd and motivated to keep its playoff hopes alive, I like its chances of staying within the number. Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 23. |
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12-22-24 | Vikings v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday. The Vikings have been riding high, boasting a seven-game winning streak that includes a 3-0 SU mark on their recent homestand. While they've been impressive, this matchup presents a potential stumbling block as they head west to face a Seahawks team eager to respond following last Sunday night's disappointing home loss to the Packers. That defeat not only snapped Seattle's four-game SU and ATS winning streak but also served as a wake-up call as the Seahawks prepare for their final home game of the regular season. Historically, the Seahawks have been strong in bounce-back situations under head coach Pete Carroll, particularly at home. With added motivation to close out their home slate on a positive note, look for Seattle to keep this game competitive, if not pull off the outright upset. Minnesota's streak has been impressive, but the challenge of traveling to a tough road environment against a motivated opponent could prove too much. Take Seattle. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Seattle 23. |
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12-22-24 | Lions v. Bears +7 | 34-17 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Bears are not a popular play following their lopsided loss to the Vikings on Monday, but this is a prime spot for a bounce-back. Chicago has dropped eight straight games, including two consecutive ATS losses, but the team will be hungry to prove it can compete at home. Meanwhile, Detroit comes off its first loss in 12 games after a defeat to Buffalo at home, with defensive injuries continuing to be a major issue. The Lions have also dropped three straight ATS, and their defense is struggling, leaving the door open for a more competitive game than most are expecting. On Thanksgiving, the Bears nearly pulled off an upset at Detroit despite poor clock management spoiling a late-game comeback. With the game at Soldier Field this time, expect Chicago to keep things tight and cover the spread in a closely contested affair. Take Chicago. Projected score: Detroit 27, Chicago 24. |
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12-21-24 | Steelers +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday. The Steelers and Ravens consistently produce tight, hard-fought games, and this matchup should be no different. Pittsburgh claimed the first meeting between these AFC North rivals in a defensive battle, 18-16, back on November 17th. Despite coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia, the Steelers have shown resilience on the road this season, boasting a 5-3 SU and ATS record away from home. Optimism surrounding the return of T.J. Watt, who resumed practicing on Thursday, only adds to their chances of a bounce-back effort. The Ravens, meanwhile, rolled past the struggling Giants last week but have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over their last four games and going 2-3 ATS in their last five. Baltimore remains a formidable opponent, yet its offensive line faces a stiffer challenge in this matchup compared to the Giants' underwhelming front. Pittsburgh’s defense, especially with the potential presence of Watt, should be able to apply pressure and keep Baltimore’s offense in check. Given the Steelers' knack for performing well on the road and the Ravens’ tendency for up-and-down play, I anticipate another close contest, making the points valuable in this spot. Take Pittsburgh. Projected score: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17. |
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12-16-24 | Bears +7 v. Vikings | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm ET on Monday. The Bears stay on the road after a rough outing in San Francisco but have shown resilience throughout the season (at least from an ATS perspective), frequently keeping games competitive against tough divisional rivals. While they’ve lost seven straight, a narrow three-point defeat against these same Vikings in late November proves they can hang with Minnesota. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been a bright spot, particularly against blitz-heavy defenses. That’s noteworthy given the Vikings' aggressive approach under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who loves to dial up pressure. Williams’ ability to make plays under duress could be pivotal in this matchup. On the flip side, Minnesota has strung together six consecutive wins, but its games haven’t typically been blowouts. Seven of their 13 contests this season have been decided by six points or fewer. The Vikings are coming off a decisive win over the Falcons last Sunday, but replicating that level of dominance is no guarantee. Their offense has been effective but not overpowering, which should allow Chicago to stay within striking distance. With a young quarterback who thrives against pressure and a divisional rival that rarely wins by margin, the Bears are in a solid position to cover the spread. Take Chicago. Projected score: Minnesota 24, Chicago 21. |
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12-15-24 | Steelers v. Eagles -5.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday. Philadelphia enters this contest on the heels of a less-than-impressive showing against Carolina last Sunday, failing to cover as a heavy favorite despite pulling out the victory. That result sets up a prime bounce-back spot for the Eagles, who continue to ride an impressive nine-game winning streak. Facing a Pittsburgh squad that has overachieved this season at 10-3, the Eagles will likely aim to reassert their dominance, especially with home-field advantage. The Steelers have done well to string together consecutive wins, but their schedule strength is worth considering. A looming divisional clash with Baltimore could have them looking ahead, making this matchup in Philadelphia a potential difficult spot. Expect Philadelphia to leverage its depth and talent edge on both sides of the ball, wearing down a Steelers team that may find it difficult to keep pace offensively. This feels like a spot where the Eagles return to form and deliver a decisive victory to keep their streak alive. Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 31, Pittsburgh 17. |
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12-09-24 | Bengals -5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm ET on Monday. Cincinnati enters this matchup on a three-game skid but finds itself in a favorable spot to rebound against a Dallas squad whose recent wins mask deeper struggles in what has become a lost season. At 5-7 and without QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have battled but lack the firepower to match an explosive Bengals offense. Cincinnati has consistently found the end zone, scoring 41, 34, 27, and 38 points in its last four games, and will likely exploit a Dallas defense that has shown cracks against high-powered opponents. Even on the road, Cincinnati’s superior offensive firepower and urgency to end its losing streak should prove decisive. While Dallas has overachieved in consecutive wins both SU and ATS, this matchup represents a step up in class that the Cowboys are ill-equipped to handle. Take Cincinnati. Projected score: Cincinnati 28, Dallas 17. |
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12-08-24 | Panthers +13.5 v. Eagles | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are in a classic letdown spot, returning home after a pair of impressive road wins and covers against the Rams and Ravens. With eight straight victories, Philadelphia is riding high but might find it challenging to sustain maximum focus as heavy favorites against a seemingly overmatched Carolina team. The Panthers, however, have been quietly improving. They've covered the spread in four straight games, showing resilience and competitiveness against more talented opponents. Their recent form suggests they can hang around even against a powerhouse like Philadelphia, especially if the Eagles come out flat. Carolina’s defense has stepped up lately, and their offense has done just enough to keep games tight. With nearly two touchdowns to work with, the Panthers offer value as a team likely to frustrate the Eagles in a closer-than-expected contest. Take Carolina. Projected score: Philadelphia 27, Carolina 20. |
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12-05-24 | Packers +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday. Detroit enters this game on a 10-game win streak, but it's been far from perfect. Last week, they narrowly escaped a comeback attempt by the Bears, with poor clock management costing Chicago at the end of the game. While the Lions' impressive streak is notable, their defensive injuries have started to pile up and could present significant issues against a high-powered Packers offense. Green Bay comes into this matchup with momentum, having won three straight games and scoring 30 or more points in each of the last two. They have the offensive firepower to exploit Detroit's defensive weaknesses, particularly with key players missing. The Packers also have confidence from last season's Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit, which could fuel their motivation in this divisional matchup. While the Lions are a strong team, Green Bay's recent form and the issues Detroit is facing make this game much closer than expected. The Packers should cover the spread with a competitive showing. Take Green Bay. Projected score: Green Bay 27, Detroit 24. |
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12-01-24 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday. Minnesota enters riding a four-game winning streak, but this game could present a letdown spot as the Vikings return home after three straight road victories. While their recent success is notable, cracks in the defense were evident in last Sunday’s narrow win over Chicago, where they struggled to contain a pedestrian Bears offense. Arizona, on the other hand, comes off a loss in Seattle, snapping its own four-game winning streak. The Cardinals have proven they can compete against quality opponents, and their dynamic offense poses a significant challenge for Minnesota. Expect Arizona to exploit mismatches, especially if Vikings QB Sam Darnold struggles to maintain consistency against an opportunistic Cardinals defense. This is a spot where Arizona’s versatility and recent form should keep the game close, if not deliver an outright upset. Take Arizona. Projected score: Arizona 27, Minnesota 24. |
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12-01-24 | Texans -3.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Texans are primed for a strong response after last week’s upset loss at home to Tennessee, as they hit the road to face a struggling Jaguars team. Houston’s offense has shown explosiveness this season and should thrive against a Jacksonville defense that has been porous, allowing a staggering 52 points in its most recent outing against Detroit. Even with a bye week to regroup, the Jags' defensive issues are unlikely to be fully resolved. Jacksonville’s offense, meanwhile, could be hampered by a less-than-healthy Trevor Lawrence, who has been battling injuries and has limited weapons to work with. Scoring consistently against a Texans defense that has shown flashes of competence will be a challenge for the Jags. While Jacksonville has covered the spread in the last two meetings, Houston has largely had the upper hand in this series, and the Jaguars’ recent inconsistency makes them hard to trust in this spot. Look for the Texans to take control early and cover comfortably. Take Houston. Projected score: Texans 31, Jaguars 17. |
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11-29-24 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: This play is on The Raiders plus the points (as per below writeup), not the Chiefs as indicated above. AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 3 pm ET on Friday. Although the Raiders have been struggling, losing seven straight games and failing to cover in three consecutive contests, this is a divisional rivalry game that should bring out the best in them. Las Vegas will be looking for revenge after a 27-20 loss to Kansas City on October 27th and has historically played the Chiefs tough. In fact, the Raiders handed Kansas City an upset loss at home on Christmas Day last year, showing they can rise to the occasion in these matchups. While Kansas City is a dominant 9-1 this season and favored in this spot, the Chiefs might not have the same level of motivation after a strong start to the year. The Raiders have plenty of incentive to battle hard, and their familiarity with Kansas City in close, hard-fought games gives them the confidence they can keep this one competitive. This is a prime opportunity for the Raiders to show up in a big way, and with Kansas City potentially overlooking the challenge, the points should be enough to cover. Take Las Vegas. Projected score: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24. |
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11-28-24 | Giants +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm ET on Thursday. Dallas is garnering significant betting attention as a home favorite following their impressive road victory over Washington last Sunday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot, particularly given their documented struggles at home this season, where consistency has been elusive. The Cowboys' offensive explosion last week felt more like an outlier, especially with Cooper Rush under center in place of the injured Dak Prescott. On the other side, the Giants are coming off a low point after a disastrous showing against Tampa Bay. While their 7-point effort last Sunday was dismal, it could serve as a wake-up call for a team that has traditionally rebounded well from such performances. Third-string quarterback Drew Lock brings a fresh dynamic to their offense, and the Giants have added motivation, seeking revenge for a narrow 20-15 loss to Dallas in the season's first meeting. Expect New York to fight hard in this divisional rematch, keeping it close and possibly pulling off the outright win. Take New York. Projected score: New York 21, Dallas 20. |
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11-24-24 | Eagles v. Rams +3 | 37-20 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm ET on Sunday. Philadelphia enters this matchup riding a six-game winning streak and benefits from extra rest after defeating Washington at home last Thursday. That victory extended their lead in the NFC East to two games, easing some of the urgency as they prepare for a Rams team locked in a much tighter division race. The Eagles have also covered the spread in back-to-back games, tying their season-long ATS streak, which suggests a potential regression could be due. Meanwhile, the Rams come into this game off a solid win in New England and remain just one game behind Arizona in the NFC West. This matchup carries added importance for Los Angeles, as three of their next four games are on the road. Notably, this is a revenge spot for the Rams after losing last year's meeting 23-14. With Matthew Stafford guiding a capable offense and the defense poised to make key stops, the Rams have the tools to keep this one competitive. The inflated spread further enhances their value as an underdog. Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Rams 24, Eagles 23. |
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11-24-24 | Bucs v. Giants +6 | 30-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday. |
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11-24-24 | Patriots +7 v. Dolphins | 15-34 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Patriots may own a disappointing 3-8 record, but they’ve shown signs of improvement in recent weeks with rookie quarterback Drake Maye providing a spark. New England has split its last four games and nearly overcame the Rams last week, falling by just six points. It also played Miami close in the first meeting this season, losing by only five points. The Dolphins are coming off an impressive blowout win over the Raiders, their second straight victory and third consecutive cover. However, with a short turnaround looming as they head to Lambeau Field to face Green Bay on Thanksgiving Night, this could be a tricky spot for Miami. New England's improving offense and ability to compete in close games make the Patriots a live underdog in this divisional matchup. Take New England. Projected score: Miami 23, New England 20. |
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11-24-24 | Lions v. Colts +7.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm ET on Sunday. Detroit has been red-hot, winning eight straight games, including a dominant 52-6 win over Jacksonville last week. While the Lions have been impressive on the road, posting a 5-0 record away from home this season, the idea of them running the table on the road seems unlikely. This matchup comes just days before a Thanksgiving Day divisional clash against the Bears, which could make it a tricky spot for Detroit to maintain focus. Indianapolis is coming off a gritty 28-27 road win against the Jets, led by a standout performance from QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have shown resilience this season, as none of their losses have come by more than 10 points. With their home crowd behind them and Detroit potentially looking ahead, the Colts should have the opportunity to keep this game close. Take Indianapolis. Projected score: Detroit 27, Indianapolis 24. |
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11-21-24 | Steelers v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the. Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday. Pittsburgh has been on an impressive run, winning five straight games both straight up and against the spread, including a narrow 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week. The Steelers are currently 8-2 and hold a two-game lead in the AFC North. However, despite their excellent record, Pittsburgh’s offense has been inconsistent, and their games have often been decided by slim margins. Cleveland, on the other hand, has struggled with a 2-8 record, losing their last two games by blowout margins. While the Browns haven’t been consistent this season, this is a big primetime game for them, especially given the rivalry against Pittsburgh. Cleveland has historically played Pittsburgh tough in divisional matchups, and they’ll be motivated to keep this one close. While the Steelers are the more successful team this season, Cleveland will bring extra intensity to this game in front of a national audience. Pittsburgh may face a letdown after their recent success, which could give Cleveland an opportunity to cover the spread in a close, hard-fought game. Take Cleveland. Projected score: Pittsburgh 13, Cleveland 12. |
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11-18-24 | Texans v. Cowboys +7 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm ET on Monday. Dallas comes into this matchup struggling, having lost four straight games, including a lopsided 34-6 defeat to Philadelphia last Sunday. Despite their record, the Cowboys have a defense capable of keeping them competitive, particularly against a Houston team dealing with key injuries. Cooper Rush now leads the Dallas offense, and while he's not as dynamic as Dak Prescott, he brings stability and experience that could help the Cowboys improve their efficiency. Dallas will be motivated to snap its losing streak and build some momentum before facing Washington next week. Houston is coming off a tough 26-23 loss to Detroit, falling to 6-4 on the season. While they get a boost with the return of WR Nico Collins, the absence of WR Stefon Diggs and DE Will Anderson will significantly impact both their offensive firepower and defensive strength. The Texans have been inconsistent this season, and while their record is better than Dallas', the injuries could level the playing field in this matchup. Take Dallas. Projected score: Houston 20, Dallas 17. |
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11-17-24 | Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm ET on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this matchup fresh off their bye week, which provides a valuable opportunity to regroup and address some of the issues that have plagued them this season. Despite their 4-5 record, Seattle has been competitive in most games, with three of their losses decided by six points or fewer. The Seahawks should benefit from the extra rest and preparation as they aim to avenge their earlier loss to the 49ers. San Francisco is riding high after a narrow 23-20 victory in Tampa last week, but that game highlighted some inconsistencies, particularly on offense, as they struggled to convert opportunities into touchdowns. The 49ers' defense has been solid but not invulnerable, as evidenced by allowing 20 or more points in four of their last five games. Seattle has a history of playing divisional games closely, and with the added motivation of staying alive in the playoff hunt, expect them to put forth a strong effort here. Look for the Seahawks to keep this one close and potentially pull off the upset. Take Seattle plus the points. Projected score: San Francisco 24, Seattle 23. |
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11-17-24 | Vikings v. Titans +6 | 23-13 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Vikings boast an impressive 7-2 record, but they’ve shown some vulnerabilities despite their success. Last week’s 12-7 road win over Jacksonville highlighted their offensive struggles, as they managed only one touchdown against a Jaguars defense that isn't among the league's best. Tennessee, at 2-7, has endured a rough season, but its defense remains a bright spot. The Titans rank first in the league in total yards allowed per game, which gives them a solid foundation to slow down Minnesota’s offense. On the offensive side, while inconsistent, Tennessee has enough playmakers to take advantage of a Vikings defense that has been exposed at times, particularly in the secondary. This game sets up as a classic “buy-low” spot for Tennessee, especially with Minnesota potentially looking ahead to tougher matchups down the stretch. The Titans’ ability to control the tempo with their defense makes them an appealing play to cover the spread in this spot. Take Tennessee plus the points. Projected score: Minnesota 20, Tennessee 17. |
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11-17-24 | Raiders +8 v. Dolphins | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Miami at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Dolphins face a tough spot playing on a short week after traveling across the country following their 23-15 win over the Rams. While Miami has been one of the league's top offenses, the travel and quick turnaround could disrupt their rhythm, especially against a team with the defensive capabilities to limit their big plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, have had two weeks to prepare after their bye, which should help them get healthier and more focused. Las Vegas may not have the record to show it, but they've been competitive in some of their losses, and the extra time off should allow them to make the necessary adjustments. They also have some motivation after getting blown out by the Bengals prior to their break. With Miami coming off a long road trip and playing on short rest, this game sets up well for a closer contest than expected, and I believe Las Vegas can cover the spread. A final score projection is Miami 23, Las Vegas 20. |
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11-17-24 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Bears have struggled offensively in recent weeks, but their defense has been a bright spot, allowing 21 points or fewer in eight of their nine contests this season. That consistency gives them a fighting chance against a Green Bay team averaging 25.6 points per game, good for ninth in the NFL. While the Packers' offense has been productive, their most recent outing saw them limited to just 14 points in a loss to Detroit. Green Bay has dominated this series over the years, including a 17-9 victory in their most recent meeting last January. However, this game will be played at Soldier Field, where the Bears will look to leverage their home-field advantage. Notably, all four of Chicago's wins this season have come at home, which could bolster their confidence in this critical divisional matchup. While weather often plays a factor in November games in Chicago, the forecast calls for relatively mild temperatures and light winds on Sunday, which should make for ideal playing conditions. This could help both offenses find a bit of rhythm, though Chicago’s defense will still be a tough test for the Packers. If the Bears can get any sort of spark offensively, they have a real shot at covering the spread or even pulling off the upset. Take Chicago plus the points. Projected score: Green Bay 20, Chicago 17. |
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11-10-24 | Jets -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday. The Jets enter this matchup off a confidence-boosting win over Houston on Halloween Night, showcasing a defense that has kept them competitive, even amid recent coaching changes. With a renewed focus under interim leadership, the Jets’ defensive unit has continued to shine, setting a solid foundation for the team. Against an Arizona offense that’s performed well lately but benefited from favorable matchups, the Jets’ defense has the edge to stifle big plays and create key stops. Arizona is on a three-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread but now faces a tougher defensive challenge than recent opponents. New York’s improving offense, meanwhile, gives the Jets the ability to take advantage of Arizona’s vulnerabilities on defense. In a game where the Jets’ balanced approach can shine, New York looks set to cover the spread with a solid all-around performance. Take the Jets minus the points. Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 16. |
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11-10-24 | Falcons v. Saints +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Saints enter this game with new leadership following the firing of head coach Dennis Allen after last week’s close loss to Carolina. Coaching changes often bring a jolt of energy, and with New Orleans seeking redemption in a divisional matchup, they’re well-positioned to keep this contest close. While Atlanta’s offense has been fairly explosive, New Orleans has the defensive depth to disrupt key plays and limit big gains. In a matchup where both sides know each other well, the Saints' renewed focus should help them stay competitive. Atlanta, fresh off a win over Dallas, will be confident but must prepare for an extra-motivated New Orleans squad looking to improve after their early-season two-point loss to the Falcons. Even with the Falcons’ offensive firepower, divisional games tend to tighten up, and the Saints should capitalize on any defensive opportunities to keep it close. Take New Orleans plus the points. Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 23. |
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11-10-24 | Bills v. Colts +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm ET on Sunday. The Colts, though coming off back-to-back losses, have the experience of veteran Joe Flacco under center, which could bring stability and playmaking ability against a talented Bills defense. Despite Buffalo’s recent four-game winning streak, the Bills failed to cover the spread last week in a narrow three-point win over Miami. The loss of rookie WR Keon Coleman due to a wrist injury leaves a noticeable gap in Buffalo’s offensive depth, which could affect their ability to stretch the field. While Indianapolis also lost Michael Pittman to injury, his lack of production this season means his absence may not be as significant. With Flacco leading the offense, Indianapolis should be able to remain competitive, especially with Buffalo’s offensive depth potentially compromised. The Colts' defense has shown the ability to keep games close, and home-field advantage could play a role here in allowing them to stay within the spread. Take Indianapolis. Prediction: Bills 23, Colts 21. |
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11-03-24 | Bears +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-29 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bears off last Sunday's heart-breaking loss in Washington. Chicago has yet to notch a road victory this season but it's been right there in all three previous tilts away from home. I think we learned a lot about the Bears in last Sunday's near-miss - mostly positive. The Cardinals rallied for a win in Miami last week, taking advantage of a listless Dolphins defense. The Arizona offense has been good in fits and starts with Kyler Murray making a ton of plays with his legs to keep the chains moving. I'm not sold on him doing it against an elite Bears defense on Sunday, however. I see this as a game where Murray gets outshined by rookie Caleb Williams and the Bears finally get their road victory. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-03-24 | Raiders +7 v. Bengals | 24-41 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. As far as losses go, I think the Raiders narrow defeat at the hands of the division-rival Chiefs last Sunday was a galvanizing one. Las Vegas was finally able to move the football a little bit with Gardner Minshew under center and I think it is well-positioned to build on that performance against a down-trodden Bengals squad on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The Bengals are saying all the right things, indicating that they believe they can still salvage a season that is clearly spiralling down the drain following last week's blowout loss against Philadelphia. I simply feel they're going to have an incredibly difficult time getting up for the visiting Raiders. Las Vegas can play some defense while its offense should welcome the opportunity to face an opponent that has rarely been able to get a hand on opposing quarterbacks. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Raiders in a game that I project to go down to the wire. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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11-03-24 | Cowboys +3 v. Falcons | 21-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last Sunday's trip to Santa Clara was always going to be a difficult one for the Cowboys. They fell short, turning this into a virtual must-win game against the Falcons in Atlanta. I like the way it sets up with the Falcons coming off another win over the Buccaneers. Severely short-handed on offense, Tampa Bay was unable to keep up with Atlanta, noting that Kirk Cousins has turned in his best two games of the season in that particular matchup. While Dallas continues to struggle defensively and sorely misses the presence of Micah Parsons among others, I think this is a spot where the Cowboys can rise up and have their offense lead them to a victory. There's nothing overly intimidating about the Falcons defense. Even the listless Panthers managed to hang 20 points on them a few weeks ago. Dallas' schedule isn't going to get any easier with matchups against the Eagles, Texans and Commanders in succession up next. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-03-24 | Chargers v. Browns +1 | 27-10 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. I haven't been overly impressed by what I've seen from the Chargers so far this season. Their four wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and Saints and they haven't managed to string together consecutive victories since Weeks 1 and 2. I think they're walking into a hornet's nest in Cleveland on Sunday as despite their 2-6 record, the Browns have to feel that they can go on a run following last week's upset win over the Ravens. Cleveland gets its bye week next and the schedule doesn't really toughen up again until mid-December. There's reason to believe the Browns are capable of at the very least making things a little more interesting for their rabid fan base over the next month or so. The presence of QB Jameis Winston has given the rest of the Browns offense a boost. Job number one for Jameis will be taking care of the football on Sunday. If he can do that (and I realize that's a pretty big 'if'), I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins this game by margin. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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10-27-24 | Bills v. Seahawks +3 | 31-10 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Buffalo at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab the points with the Seahawks as they host the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo has won consecutive games but those came against the Jets and Titans. Here, the Bills will head out on the road, travelling across the country to face a Seattle squad that is feeling pretty good about itself after last week's blowout win in Atlanta. The Seahawks are the surprise leaders in the NFC West entering the week but are still considered by most to be a pretender. A win here would serve as a major statement and I'm confident we'll see Seattle give Buffalo all it can handle. Take Seattle (8*). |
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10-27-24 | Cardinals v. Dolphins -4 | 28-27 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Dolphins are picking the right time to bring QB Tua Tagovailoa back into the fold against an injury-depleted Cardinals defense playing on a short week off Monday's win over the Chargers. Perhaps no team needs its starting quarterback as a talent elevator than Miami. We've seen the Dolphins take a massive step back with Tua sidelined with their offense looking punchless at best. Last week's game was served up on a silver platter for the Fins in Indianapolis but they couldn't get the win. The season may be circling the drain but there's reason for optimism this week. Arizona has risen up on occasion this season but has yet to deliver consecutive wins. Off its previous two victories it lost by seven points against Detroit and 21 points against Green Bay. This is a virtual must-win for Miami given it will head on the road for consecutive games against the Bills and Rams over the next two weeks. I believe this line will prove too short. Take Miami (8*). |
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10-20-24 | Chiefs v. 49ers -1.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this situation sets up for the 49ers as they look to gain an ounce of revenge after losing the Super Bowl at the hands of the Chiefs last February. While Kansas City has the benefit of coming off its bye week, San Francisco gets the best of both worlds in a sense as it had a few extra days of preparation thanks to playing in last week's Thursday nighter in Seattle but doesn't have to deal with the possible rust off the bye. While it's by no means a must-win for the Niners, it is a critical spot as they look to avoid falling below the .500 mark. The schedule isn't going to get much easier with tough sledding ahead including upcoming road games in Tampa, Green Bay and Buffalo. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season - that I'm certain of. With that being said, after this contest there's not a lot of resistance until a road game in Buffalo in the third week of November. We'll lay the short number with San Francisco. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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10-20-24 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Steelers v. Raiders +3 | 32-13 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I don't like the prospect of the Steelers laying points as they travel across the country following last Sunday night's hard-fought loss against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh has now dropped consecutive games following a 3-0 start to the season. The Raiders are coming off a blowout defeat against the division rival Broncos in Denver last Sunday. They led that game 10-0 and appeared poised to go ahead 17-0 with a goal-to-go situation early in the second quarter but a Gardner Minshew interception resulted in a Patrick Surtain II pick-six and the rest was history. While Las Vegas doesn't have a lot going for it, I do think it will get up for this revenge spot after dropping a 23-18 decision at home against Pittsburgh last season. With the potential to climb back to the .500 mark with a win here, the Raiders undoubtedly still have plenty to play for. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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10-13-24 | Commanders +7 v. Ravens | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens were very fortunate to come away with a win in Cincinnati last week. With the exception of its blowout win over Buffalo two weeks ago, all of Baltimore's games have gone down to the wire. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. The Commanders are going to be a popular underdog pick this week but that's fine. They've exceeded expectations to be sure but I don't think this spot is too big for them. Washington has cut QB Jayden Daniels loose and this is an offense that looks like it's playing with house money, so to speak. Defensively, the Commanders do have their warts but as I mentioned, Baltimore has had a difficult time putting teams away (look no further than its Week 2 loss at home against Las Vegas). We can anticipate a run-centric approach from the Ravens which effectively shortens proceedings and favors the underdog side catching a generous helping of points. Take Washington (8*). |
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10-13-24 | Browns +8.5 v. Eagles | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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10-10-24 | 49ers -3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 36-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While it may seem like a fairly inconsequential loss as the Seahawks are still 3-2 on the campaign, make no mistake, they needed last Sunday's game against the Giants. Most thought that would be a layup for Seattle but New York ultimately won by a 27-20 score. Now the Seahawks begin arguably the most difficult five-game stretch on their schedule and to make matters worse, they'll be welcoming a 49ers team that will be in a foul mood following Sunday's upset loss to the Cardinals on Thursday night. The Niners have dominated this matchup in recent years, on both sides of the football. While San Francisco has sputtered in the early going this season, I see this as a 'get right' matchup on a short week. Look for the Niners offense to bully an undermanned Seahawks defense that is missing arguably its two best players in Riq Woolen and Byron Murphy. San Francisco is dealing with injuries of its own on defense but I expect it to expose a bad Seattle offensive line and roll to a convincing victory on Thursday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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10-07-24 | Saints +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's already difficult enough to go undefeated through five games (the Vikings are the only team to do it so far this season). Here, the Chiefs will be trying to accomplish that feat but from a pointspread perspective are also laying a handful of points. I believe the spread will prove too high. Saints QB Derek Carr is certainly familiar with the Chiefs from his days with the division rival Raiders. Carr has been playing some of his best football so far this season, even if he has cooled off along with the Saints offense over the last couple of games. Off consecutive losses to the Eagles and Falcons by the narrowest of margins, I like New Orleans chances of bouncing back here but we'll grab the points as few teams have displayed the knack for pulling out victory from the jaws of defeat as the Chiefs have in recent years. Note that the Saints are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 road games following a road loss, as is the case here. The Chiefs are 26-30 ATS in their last 56 home games following three straight victories. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-06-24 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. No one will give the Cardinals much of a chance in this game, not after seeing them drop back-to-back games at home including a beatdown at the hands of the Commanders last Sunday. I think Arizona can give San Francisco a run here, noting that the 49ers are a long-term 56-71 ATS in their last 127 games following a win by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Arizona checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games following an upset defeat at home. Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-06-24 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | 18-34 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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10-06-24 | Panthers +4 v. Bears | 10-36 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll call for the Panthers to bounce back following last week's home defeat at the hands of a desperate Bengals squad. Veteran QB Andy Dalton has given the Carolina offense some life and I think it can hang, even against a tough Bears defense in Chicago. The Bears delivered a home win over the injury-riddled Rams last Sunday. Note that they're 17-25 ATS in their last 42 home games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Carolina is a long-term winner in a road underdog role having gone 97-78 ATS in its last 175 contests in that situation. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-06-24 | Jets v. Vikings -2 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 9:30 am et on Sunday. There will be regression coming for the Vikings at some point but I don't think we see it this week. This is another favorable matchup for the Vikes as they travel to London to take on a Jets squad that is still trying to figure things out. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers was already virtually immobile before suffering a knee injury last week. He's in a nightmarish situation here against an ultra-aggressive Vikes defense. I have little confidence in New York coming up with a gameplan to beat this Brian Flores-led defense that is firing on all cylinders. Offensively, the Vikes are playing smart and I expect them to take what the Jets defense gives them on Sunday. Don't count on a ton of explosiveness out of the Minnesota offense but it will do enough to secure a fifth straight victory. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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09-30-24 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Lions | Top | 29-42 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Lions may be considered to be an elite team but there's hasn't really been anything elite about what they've put on tape through three games this season. Detroit is 2-1 with wins over the Rams and Cardinals (it lost to the Buccaneers in Week 2). The Lions have yet to score more than 24 points in a game. Note that the Lions are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against opponents that allow 175 pass yards per game or less. They're also just 15-23 ATS in their last 38 home contests after giving up 14 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here. Seattle remains undefeated at 3-0. While I don't love backing undefeated teams, I'm willing to make an exception when that team is catching as many points as the Seahawks are in this spot. Note that Seattle is 31-25 ATS in its last 56 road games against opponents that gain 4.5 yards per rush or more. The Seahawks have been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush. While most are anticipating a shootout in this game, I'm not convinced we'll see a ton of quick-strike plays. Instead look for these two efficient offenses to churn out long drives that effectively shorten proceedings. That favors the team catching points, especially when spotted more than a field goal. Take Seattle (10*). |
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09-30-24 | Titans v. Dolphins -2.5 | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Dolphins don't instill a ton of confidence right now, neither do the Titans. I like the fact that Miami has settled on a quarterback in Tyler Huntley and he's undoubtedly a better fit for this offense than Skylar Thompson (he's not a fit for any NFL offense). Note that Tennessee is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road after three straight ATS losses. The Titans are also a miserable 17-28 ATS in their last 45 road contests against opponents that have a win percentage between 25% and 40%. We've seen the Titans depth-shy defense wilt in each of their first three games and I think the Fins can run an offense that will wear them down on Monday as well. Note that Tennessee is missing arguably its two best players in the secondary in Awuzie and Sneed. Take Miami (8*). |
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09-29-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers +7 | Top | 17-10 | Push | 0 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers have major injury concerns right now but we know they're not conceding this divisional matchup as QB Justin Herbert is expected to play through his ankle injury. The Chiefs aren't going to run the table this season and I like Los Angeles' chances of effectively shortening proceedings on Sunday afternoon and at the very least taking this game down to the wire. Note that Kansas City is just 20-24 ATS in its last 44 road games following a road win, as is the case here. The Chiefs are also just 28-35 ATS in their last 63 road contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 69-53 ATS in their last 122 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points and 38-32 ATS in their last 70 contests against a team that wins 75% or more of its games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-29-24 | Broncos +9 v. Jets | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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09-29-24 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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09-29-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +1 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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09-26-24 | Cowboys -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. |
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09-23-24 | Jaguars +6 v. Bills | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 49 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The Bills have had 10 days to pat themselves on the back for their 2-0 start including a blowout win in primetime against division-rival Miami. I expect Buffalo to find the going much tougher against a hungry, winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday. The Jags have run up against a tough early season schedule, first facing a full-strength Dolphins squad in the sweltering afternoon heat in Miami in Week 1 (they easily could have won that game were it not for a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble) and then hosting a loaded Browns defense that was coming off an embarrassing Week 1 loss at home against the Cowboys. Jacksonville has only been outscored by eight points through two games and that's with its offense producing next-to-nothing (a grand total of 30 points). I feel the Jags best days are ahead of them on offense and like the matchup against the Bills on Monday. We know this Jacksonville offense can ball out. QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he hasn't been good enough through two games. Much is made about the awful track record of teams starting 0-2 in terms of reaching the playoffs. Keep in mind, the expanded playoffs do throw a wrench in that trend. Jacksonville still has everything to play for and the schedule does get a lot more manageable in October (vs. Colts, at Bears, vs. Patriots and vs. Packers). A win here could certainly flip the script. A loss and the Jags face the very real prospect of an 0-4 start with a difficult trip to Houston on deck next week. The Bills have looked good through two games but we know what we're going to get with this team and that's often inconsistency. QB Josh Allen is being asked to shoulder more of the load on offense with a talent downgrade in terms of his weapons this season. So far, so good but I expect the Jags defense to offer far more resistance than the Cardinals and Dolphins did in the first two weeks. Note that these two teams have met twice since 2021 with the Jaguars winning both matchups including a 25-20 victory in Buffalo last year. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2016 to find the last time the Bills beat the Jags by more than a field goal. In last year's matchup the Jags prevailed despite Trevor Lawrence being sacked five times and Josh Allen throwing for 359 yards and two touchdowns (Jacksonville didn't record a single sack). I think there's actually room for improvement from the Jags on both sides of the football here, yet we're catching a handful of points. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
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09-22-24 | Panthers +5 v. Raiders | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's no sugar-coating it, the Panthers season is already swirling down the drain after two nightmarish performances against the Saints and Chargers. But let's pump the brakes on this being an all-timer in terms of bad NFL teams. Carolina's first opponent, the New Orleans Saints, proceeded to throttle the mighty Cowboys the very next week in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like they know exactly what they're doing under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, jumping out to an identical 2-0 record to that of the Saints. My point is, perhaps the Panthers aren't quite as bad as most believe they are. In a move most saw coming, Carolina elected to bench QB Bryce Young following last week's second straight poor showing. Veteran QB Andy Dalton takes over the offense and it's not as if he was signed off his couch. He was with the team last year and should be comfortable running the offense. I'm a believer that Dalton can at the very least settle things down and ultimately elevate this offense. It's not as if the Panthers are completely bereft of talent. This is an excellent spot for Carolina to regain its footing on offense as the Raiders have been matador-like in terms of run defense, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush through two games. Las Vegas falls into a clear letdown situation here as it returns home after a massive come-from-behind upset win in Baltimore last Sunday. Few gave the Raiders a chance entering that game and certainly not when they were down double-digits in the second half. We saw Las Vegas open up the offense in that contest but that had a lot to do with game script as it was trailing by a considerable number of points. I suspect we see head coach Antonio Pierce's conservative tendencies resurface in this game as the Raiders go back to running the football. That's in our best interest as well as it effectively shortens the game and favors the team catching points. It's critical not to over-react to NFL results on a week-to-week basis and I think that's precisely what the betting marketplace is doing by installing the Raiders are sizable favorites on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with the Panthers but hopefully won't need them. Take Carolina (8*). |
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09-22-24 | Packers v. Titans -1.5 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. Things could have gone sideways in a hurry for the Packers following the injury to QB Jordan Love in Week 1. However, we saw Green Bay pick up a much-needed win at home against Indianapolis last Sunday to give it a lift heading into this tougher than it may seem matchup in Tennessee in Week 3. Love is back practising and the betting markets have reacted by pushing this line in the Packers favor. I don't expect him to play but even if he does, I still like the winless Titans in this spot. Green Bay's gameplan last week involved hiding backup QB Malik Willis and letting its defense take care of the rest. That approach worked wonders against an awful Colts run defense, not to mention an Indy offense that will struggle to play from behind all season. I expect a different story to unfold against the Titans. Were it not for a couple of glaring mistakes from Tennessee QB Will Levis last week against the Jets, it likely would have controlled that contest from start to finish and picked up its first win of the season. The Titans defense has impressed me. It had Jets QB Aaron Rodgers under duress all afternoon long. Offensively, I would anticipate Tennessee going back to a run-centric approach against a Packers defense you can most definitely run on (Green Bay has allowed 5.5 yards per rush and two rushing touchdowns through two games). Backing the 0-2 Titans laying points against a potential playoff team may not be the easiest bet to make this week but I believe it's the right one. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-15-24 | Giants +1.5 v. Commanders | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 58 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The fact that the Commanders managed to score 20 points in last week's loss in Tampa masked their ineptness. This is a bad team and one that I don't think has a lot of room for improvement on a week-to-week basis. QB Jayden Daniels showed flashes against the Buccaneers but much of his success came on the ground. He took plenty of physical abuse in that game, to the point that head coach Dan Quinn mentioned in his post-game presser that Daniels won't be able to be subject to that sort of punishment moving forward. I'm anticipating an already limited offense might just simplify and scale things back even more this week. The Giants defense is loaded up front and capable of taking over this game. Offensively, the Giants are a bit of a mess. However, I don't think things are quite as bad as they're being made out to be. QB Daniel Jones has taken a ton of criticism throughout his NFL career and it's often deserved. I do think he saves face for a week at least as he should be able to pick apart a porous Washington secondary. Rookie WR Malik Nabers was held relatively quiet in last week's loss to Minnesota. He figures to go off this week. Nabers was listed as limited on Thursday's practice report but all indications it was just a minor scare related to leg soreness. Unlike the Commanders, who entered the season with extremely low expectations, the Giants need to right the ship in a hurry. Their schedule only gets tougher with a trip to Cleveland next week followed by a Thursday night home game against the Cowboys. Looking ahead even further, they'll travel to Seattle in Week 5 and then host the Bengals in Week 6. I could go on but the fact is, without a victory on Sunday there's a better than zero chance that New York doesn't win a game for a long time. Take New York (10*). |
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09-08-24 | Steelers +3.5 v. Falcons | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers defense was already elite before adding CB Donte Jackson from Carolina and LB Patrick Queen from Baltimore. The gameplan for Pittsburgh is simple. Play a game of hide-the-quarterback, run the football and lean on its defense to secure a road win in Week 1. I like the matchup for the Steelers. Atlanta is saddled with fairly high expectations this season after bringing in a competent veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins. After signing Cousins to a big deal the Falcons went out and drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the opening round. I don't love the fit for Cousins. I'll also take a 'believe it when I see it' approach to the Atlanta offense taking a big leap with former head coach Arthur Smith having moved on to Pittsburgh (as offensive coordinator). I fully expect the Falcons to remain a little too conservative on offense (given their defensive short-comings) with defensive-minded Raheem Morris taking over as head coach. We could very well see both teams employ similar gameplans here as they look to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to start the campaign off with a victory. A lower-scoring game certainly favors the underdog and I like Pittsburgh in that role out of the gates. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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09-08-24 | Panthers +4 v. Saints | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -108 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers started last season 0-6 and ultimately won only two games in what was a truly disastrous campaign. By all accounts, the needle is pointing up entering the 2024 season with first-year head coach Dave Canales taking over after a successful stint at the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. This is the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to make a statement that things will be different this year after getting swept in the season series against the division-rival Saints last year. Full disclosure, this play is more about fading the favored Saints and what I consider to be the league's worst head coach-QB tandem in Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Allen is as conservative as it gets in today's NFL and I don't need to tell you that doesn't generally lead to success beating pointspreads. Carr has never seen a check-down he doesn't like and is clearly on the downside of his career. He'll be leaning heavily on RB Alvin Kamara who doesn't figure to have much tread left on his tires. I am high on Saints WR Chris Olave but that's it on an otherwise pedestrian offensive attack that has an extremely low ceiling thanks to an awful offensive line. The Saints dominated this matchup last year and Panthers QB Bryce Young in particular. That's clearly been baked into this pointspread, however, as has been the offseason talent rotation out of Carolina's defense. I like the 'nobody believes in us' angle with underdogs like the Panthers early in the season, before all hope is potentially lost, and certainly in division games such as this one. Take Carolina (10*). |
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09-06-24 | Packers +2 v. Eagles | 29-34 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Friday. I'm not quite as high on the Eagles as some entering the 2024 season. Yes, they're still going to contend for the NFC East title. However, I also think there's a good chance we see the Packers rise to elite status and want to be on board before the train leaves the station early in the campaign as far as value goes. Green Bay made a number of savvy offseason moves, on both sides of the football. There was little subtraction from a core that improved steadily and elevated down the stretch last season. Instead, the Packers added key pieces that have the potential to put them over the hump and make them a true contender in the NFC this year. Of course, this is a terrific early measuring stick game for the Packers. It's similar to the situation the Ravens were in last night, but Baltimore undoubtedly entered the season with more questions than Green Bay. The Ravens were also up against a truly elite Chiefs squad that certainly didn't forget opening last season with a Thursday night loss to Detroit. I'm sure the Packers feel a little disrespected to be opening the season as underdogs in this neutral site contest. They want to be in the same conversation with the Eagles as far as NFC contenders go and I expect them to come out and make a statement on Friday. Take Green Bay (8*). |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday. UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points. Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Bills have been playing playoff football for the last month-plus as they desperately try to work their way into the postseason - a destination that was thought to be a sure thing earlier in the season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot but would certainly like to avoid tumbling down the AFC pecking order. Of course, their main focus right now is probably on avoiding any more injuries. I simply see two teams heading in opposite directions at this point. The Bills haven't been covering spreads but they haven't needed to to win games as double-digit favorites over the last two weeks. Note that those two ATS defeats do set up Buffalo well as it has gone a long-term 62-38 ATS following consecutive ATS losses. While the Dolphins may appear to be in a solid bounce-back spot off last week's drubbing in Baltimore, history says otherwise. Miami is just 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss by 21 points or more. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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01-07-24 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Cardinals v. Eagles -12 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a blowup spot for the Eagles offense as they face a weary Cardinals defense that just got tagged for 72 points in its last two games against the 49ers and Bears. Philadelphia is in line to feast offensively after hanging 33 points on the board without breaking a sweat against the Giants on Christmas Day. The Eagles defense is another story entirely. Philadelphia has been vulnerable at times defensively this season but I don't believe Arizona has the personnel in place to take advantage. TE Trey McBride is a bright spot to be sure and he's likely to get his in this particular matchup. Can anyone else pick up the rest of the slack though? I'm not convinced. You would be hard-pressed to find a weaker wide receiving corps than that of the Cards. QB Kyler Murray has made a respectable return but he's going to be in tough against the Eagles pass rush here. This is a game where Philadelphia should be able to jump ahead, much like they did against New York, but successfully salt away the win and cover on this occasion. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | 33-19 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a fourth straight win, this one coming on the road against Jacksonville in primetime last week, we'll fade the Ravens here as they face the 49ers in what is being billed as a potential Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is rolling right now. Even last week when it didn't bring its 'A' game defensively, it still laid waste to the Cardinals by 16 points. That marked the Niners sixth straight victory having gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. San Francisco has been a terrific bet playing with positive momentum as it checks in 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 25 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Niners are also 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +3 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 82 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Rams nearly let the Commanders off the hook in Sunday's 28-20 win. They did hold on for the cover - their fourth straight ATS victory. Speaking of winning streaks, the Saints enter this game 'fat and happy' off consecutive blowout home wins over the Panthers and Giants. New York inexplicably elected to abandon its ground game against New Orleans' charmin-soft run defense and ultimately paid the price. I'm confident we'll see the Rams display a more balanced offensive attack here and wear down the New Orleans defense. There's little reason to have much faith in the Saints offense. They've run for 100+ yards just twice in their last six games and have topped 250 passing yards only once over that stretch (in a nine-point loss in Atlanta). Note that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series with none of those eight victories coming by fewer than six points. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Bills | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is undoubtedly a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendars since the start of the season - a long-awaited rematch with the Bills after dropping a 26-15 decision at home against Buffalo back in 2019. That most recent meeting between these two teams four years ago also featured the quarterback matchup of Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for 355 yards in a losing effort on that day. He's been MVP-worthy this season and while Dallas is likely to stumble at some point, I don't see it coming here. Buffalo is fresh off a massive road win over the Chiefs last Sunday. I expect the Bills success to be short-lived, however, noting they haven't strung together consecutive wins since a three-game winning streak from September 17th to October 1st. Note that Buffalo is a long-term 57-90 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in its last three games, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Browns | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I generally anticipate games getting tighter and tighter at this time of year in Cleveland, where the December weather can be unpredictable and the Browns tend to go conservative in nature on offense. The Bears are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of three games in a row ATS and an impressive 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine contests. That's in stark contrast to the Browns, who have dropped two of their last three games both SU and ATS and narrowly avoided coughing up a back-door cover against the Jags (in a game where Jacksonville didn't bring anything close to its 'A' game) last Sunday. Cleveland has inexplicably thrown the ball 89 times in the last two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I'm confident fading Flacco and the Browns offense here as the veteran QB is likely to be under duress all afternoon long against a much-improved Bears pass rush. Take Chicago (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and they don't get much uglier than the 1-12 Panthers. As bad as things have gone for Carolina it has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games just once over its last seven contests. Note that the Panthers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Carolina is also 18-7 ATS in its last 25 contests after scoring six points or less in its previous game. The Falcons have won just one of five road games by more than a field goal this season. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Giants +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers are coming off three straight wins including high-profile, high-visibility victories (and covers) over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. We'll gladly step in and fade Green Bay as it plays on the road laying nearly a touchdown against the Giants on Monday. New York has quietly reeled off consecutive wins and enters this contest off its bye week. There's a path for success for the Giants here as the Packers can't stop the run and New York has a healthy Saquon Barkley capable of delivering a strong performance on Monday. Green Bay's offense has looked sharp over the last couple of weeks but will have to go on without WR Christian Watson. After committing at least one turnover in seven straight games, the Packers have turned in three straight clean performances. I'm thinking that changes here with the Giants defense having forced a whopping 11 turnovers over their last three contests. Take New York (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Vikings v. Raiders +3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings had their run. I think their season is all but done, even if their even 6-6 record indicates otherwise. They'll get a big boost with the return of WR Justin Jefferson this week but that's been more than factored into this line. Yes, Minnesota enters this game with a chip on its shoulder after consecutive losses but Las Vegas is in precisely the same position. There's no real shame in the Raiders last two losses as they came on the road against the Dolphins and at home against the Chiefs. Note that Las Vegas is 4-2 SU at home this season. The Vikings are an identical 4-2 on the road but just 1-1 with Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams yet we're catching a field goal with the Raiders at home. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -13.5 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game is set up on a platter for the Browns as they return home off consecutive blowout losses in Denver and Los Angeles, even if the latter featured a rather misleading final score. Jacksonville is playing on a short week after getting punched in the mouth by the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday night. QB Trevor Lawrence is banged up. Whether he plays or not remains up in the air but regardless, this is a difficult matchup for the Bengals offense against a Browns defense that surely has a bad taste in its mouth. Cleveland may turn to QB Joe Flacco again on Sunday. He actually provided some stability to the offense last week against the Rams. I do think we'll see the Browns go back to the basics this Sunday, letting their ground game and defense do the heavy lifting. Jacksonville is dealing with key injuries in its secondary that just might open the door for Flacco and the Browns passing attack to produce just enough big plays to finish the job. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-10-23 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | 6-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are playing with absolutely nothing to lose down the stretch. Frank Reich was already fired. Most have already given up on QB Bryce Young, at least in his rookie season. They're coming off five consecutive losses, having gone 1-3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think they rise to the occasion in this revenge spot, however, noting that the Panthers are a long-term 41-23 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The Saints are a miserable 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I simply feel they're regressed into a team that simply isn't built for the fast track at the Superdome. Note that New Orleans is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games played indoors, including an ugly 1-7 ATS mark this season. The Saints check in having allowed 100+ rushing yards in seven straight games and I think that opens the door for the Panthers to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, and stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Carolina (8*). |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -6 | 21-18 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Talk about an ugly Thursday night matchup but we can only bet what's in front of us and I like the way this one sets up for the Steelers. Pittsburgh dropped a lopsided decision against the Cardinals at home last Sunday. Some were stunned by that defeat. I wasn't. The Cardinals actually have a lot going for them right now - the same can't be said for Bill Bellichick's Patriots. The Pats are essentially jockeying for draft positioning at this point and in pretty good shape in that regard. Rhamondre Stevenson's presence was one of the only things that would have led me to believe New England could stay competitive in this game but now he's sidelined as well. For the Steelers, we'll see Mitchell Trubisky under center. That's a drop-off from Kenny Pickett to be sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Steelers will once again lean on their ground game and defense to win this game anyway. Note that Pittsburgh has yet to lose consecutive games SU or ATS this season. They'll avoid that fate here as well. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Packers | 19-27 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Packers caught the Lions flat-footed on Thanksgiving Day. It almost seemed as if Detroit thought Green Bay would simply roll over but that was far from the case. Here, I expect the Chiefs to be business-like in their approach once again, noting they're a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against non-conference opponents. As expected we heard plenty of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' whispers following their 21-17 home loss to the Eagles on MNF a couple of weeks ago. After a sluggish start in Las Vegas last Sunday, Kansas City eventually rolled to a two-touchdown victory. I expect plenty of carry-over from that flawless second half performance on Sunday night in Green Bay. This is another 'get right' spot against a Packers squad that just isn't as good as it looked in posting consecutive wins over the last two weeks. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4.5 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm not ready to write off the Browns just yet. Yes, they're coming off a disheartening loss to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday in a game that completely got away from them. I fully expect them to bounce back this week as they stay on the road to face the Rams, who are in a fairly obvious letdown spot off consecutive wins, including a blowout victory in Arizona last week. Are the Rams as good as they looked against the Cardinals? Probably not. Are the Browns as bad as they appeared against the Broncos? Certainly not. Keep in mind, prior to that loss in Denver, Cleveland had reeled off three consecutive wins SU and four in a row ATS. Yes, the Browns offense remains extremely limited but I think their defense can do a lot of the heavy lifting on Sunday, ultimately creating enough splash plays to give their offense some short fields to work with. Note that the Rams are a woeful 3-10 in their last 13 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against NFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*). |