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Sean Murphy NHL Money Lines Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
11-02-21 Stars v. Jets -120 Top 3-4 Win 100 13 h 41 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Jets got caught flat-footed against the Sharks on Saturday (we won with the 'under' in that game), perhaps overlooking a San Jose squad that was missing five players due to Covid protocols. Here, I look for the Jets to bounce back as they return home to host the reeling Stars on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off three straight losses, scoring just four goals in the process. Note that the Stars are just 2-11 after scoring a goal or less in their last game going back to last season (they're coming off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa), outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Worse still, Dallas is 0-6 the last six times it has gone on the road after playing two or more consecutive games at home, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets are a somewhat inexplicable 9-1 in their last 10 games following an overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that situation (they lost in overtime against the Sharks on Saturday). I'm more confident in backing them given they're coming off a one-goal loss in general, noting that they've gone 20-7 in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.3 goals along the way. The home team has taken the last four meetings in this series. You would have go to back to December of 2019 to find the last time Dallas skated to a win in Winnipeg. Take Winnipeg (10*).

11-01-21 Senators v. Blackhawks -120 Top 1-5 Win 100 13 h 33 m Show

NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

The Blackhawks are still looking for their first victory nearly a month into the season and with controversy swirling around the franchise, they're in desperate need of something positive at this point. The good news is, they've been playing a little better. Chicago has been right there in two of its last three games, suffering an overtime loss at home against the Maple Leafs and a 1-0 setback in St. Louis around an ugly performance in Carolina. While this is no time for excuses, there's no denying the 'Hawks have faced an extremely tough schedule to this point. This game against the Senators gives them a good opportunity to get something going with five of their next six games coming on home ice. Ottawa is coming off a win in Dallas on Friday night. I'm not sure being idle for the entire weekend was the best thing for a Sens team that is looking to build some positive momentum having won only three out of seven games so far this season. Note that Ottawa has dropped six straight meetings against Chicago, with its last victory in this series coming way back in 2016. After scoring nine goals in their last two games and coming off an effort that saw them allow just a single goal in Dallas, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Sens here. Note that they've allowed 4.0 goals have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Take Chicago (10*).

11-01-21 Capitals v. Lightning -140 2-3 Win 100 12 h 45 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Lightning are back on track after a brief lull, coming off consecutive 5-1 thrashings of the Penguins and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 2-2 over their last four games, including a loss to the lowly Red Wings. They are, however, fresh off a shutout win over the Coyotes and I think that takes away a bit of their edge entering this 'revenge' game against the Lightning. Tampa Bay skated to a 2-1 victory in Washington earlier this season. While the Caps did win the last meeting between these two teams here in Tampa, that was nearly two years ago. After a slow start, the Bolts can ill afford to give up any points right now, I like their chances of wrapping up a perfect 2-0 homestand here. Take Tampa Bay (6*).

10-30-21 Devils v. Penguins -150 4-2 Loss -150 29 h 29 m Show

My selection is on Pittsburgh over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Penguins are coming off back-to-back losses on home ice but they're well-positioned to get back in the win column against the Devils on Saturday night. Note that Pittsburgh is an incredible 17-2 when playing at home after giving up three goals or more in in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals on average in that spot. As for the Devils, they're a woeful 2-14 the last 16 times they've come off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Until the Devils get goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes back from injury, I'm considering them a play-against team. With the Penguins having taken eight of the last 11 meetings in this series including four of the last five in Pittsburgh, I'm comfortable laying the chalk with them here. Take Pittsburgh (6*).

10-28-21 Avalanche -115 v. Blues Top 4-3 Win 100 10 h 52 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

We're taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Avalanche here as there's no question the Blues have been the superior team through the first couple of weeks of the season. In fact, St. Louis has already skated to a 5-3 win over Colorado, on the road no less. Apart from that victory, the Blues haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents, however. After the game in Colorado they traveled to Arizona to face a Coyotes team that is still winless on the season. Next came a stop in Las Vegas, where they took on a Golden Knights squad missing two of its best players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Most recently, the Blues hosted a two-game home set against the Kings, who are expected to be one of the Western Conference's weakest teams. You get the picture. The Avs on the other hand have had no gimmes, perhaps other than a season-opening win over the hapless Blackhawks. Their three previous road games came against the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. They managed to pick up only one victory in those three games and followed that trip with a tough home loss to the Knights two nights ago. Needless to say this is a game the Avs clearly have circled on their calendar (not that I'm a big proponent of backing teams based on motivation alone - every team is motivated). What I will note here is that the Blues are just 8-15 in their last 23 games after scoring 3+ goals in four or more consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, as they average just 2.6 goals in that spot. These two teams have faced each other 16 times since the start of 2020. Only once over that stretch has St. Louis managed to register consecutive wins. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Blues will be without one of their leaders for an indefinite period of time as Ryan O'Reilly is in Covid protocol. Take Colorado (10*).

10-23-21 Canucks v. Seattle Kraken -112 4-2 Loss -112 32 h 30 m Show

My selection is on Seattle over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Kraken ran out of gas at the end of their season-opening road trip, dropping consecutive lopsided decisions against the Flyers and Devils in a back-to-back set earlier this week. Here, I look for Seattle to show up and show out in its first game in front of the home faithful at Climate Pledge Arena. The Kraken catch the Canucks in a favorable spot here as Vancouver has gone a woeful 0-7 the last seven times it has come off a road win in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here following Thursday's 4-1 win in Chicago. The Canucks have been outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The 'Nucks are also just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive road games, which is the case on Saturday, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals. Take Seattle (6*).

10-23-21 Hurricanes -150 v. Blue Jackets 5-1 Win 100 29 h 39 m Show

My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are playing well out of the gates with the Hurricanes a perfect 3-0 and Columbus right behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings at 3-1. Here, I like the Canes to keep it rolling. Note that Columbus checks in 0-7 the last seven times it has played at home off a division win, as is the case here following Thursday's overtime victory over the Islanders, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. I mentioned overtime, well, the last six times the Jackets have played at home off an overtime win they've averaged a miserable 1.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Canes have gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, going 18-6 the last 24 times they've played on the road off at least two straight road games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Carolina (7*).

10-21-21 Capitals -120 v. Devils Top 4-1 Win 100 30 h 26 m Show

NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*).

10-20-21 Bruins -135 v. Flyers 3-6 Loss -135 12 h 44 m Show

My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bruins will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. I like the way this one sets up for the B's as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the uneven Flyers. Philadelphia opened its campaign with a shootout loss to the Canucks - a game they really had no business getting a point out of having trailed by two goals with just a couple of minutes remaining. Since then we've seen the 'Nucks go on to lose games against the Red Wings and Sabres. We did see the Flyers bounce back on Monday as they caught the expansion Seattle Kraken in a favorable spot and rolled to a 6-1 victory. Here, they'll turn to backup goaltender Martin Jones against Boston and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the B's. Note that Philadelphia checks in 5-13 after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last season-plus, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. In fact, the Flyers are just 7-17 the last 24 times they've come off a win of any kind, outscored by 1.5 goals on average while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that situation. The Bruins have taken four of the last six meetings here in Philadelphia and I like their advantage here with underrated goaltender Jeremy Swayman going up against the aforementioned Jones. Take Boston (6*).

10-15-21 Canucks v. Flyers -145 5-4 Loss -145 11 h 29 m Show

My selection is on Philadelphia over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

There will be spots to fade the Flyers early in this season but I firmly believe those will come in situations where backup goaltender Martin Jones gets the call between the pipes. Here in their home opener, we can expect Carter Hart in goal, noting that he's looking to bounce back from an inexplicably awful season and ready to build on a strong preseason that saw him start two games, allowing just two goals on 43 shots. I'm high on the Flyers in general. They added to their depth with some savvy moves in the offseason, including adding Cam Atkinson. They also have plenty of young players ready to take another step forward this year, most notably Travis Konecny (he only seems like he's been in the league forever) and Joel Farabee. The Canucks managed to earn a point in a shootout loss to the Oilers two nights ago but their potential lack of scoring punch was evident as they found the back of the net only twice on 38 shots. While I do think Vancouver can be a playoff contender this season, this is a tough six-game season-opening road trip that takes it all over the map. Take Philadelphia (5*).

10-14-21 Stars v. Rangers -115 3-2 Loss -115 13 h 38 m Show

My selection is on New York over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Rangers inexplicably elected to 'punt' last night's season-opener in Washington - more or less - starting backup goaltender Alex Georgiev in a blowout loss. Often times those type of decisions have a trickle-down effect through the rest of the dressing room, and I think that may have been the case last night. They're expected to have Igor Shesterkin back between the pipes for Thursday's home-opener and I'm confident we'll see a much better performance from the Blueshirts. This is the first real test for new head coach Gerard Gallant as he aims to get his players back up on a quick turn-around. I like the matchup here with the Stars coming off a down campaign as they struggled to recapture the lightning in a bottle that led them to a surprising Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2020. Dallas' roster remains relatively unchanged from recent years and I'm not sure that's a positive thing at this point. Take New York (5*).

10-14-21 Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -138 Top 2-8 Win 100 12 h 51 m Show

NHL Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Columbus over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Coyotes have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams this season and while the Blue Jackets are by no means a Stanley Cup contender, I do think they'll be in the hunt for the playoffs and could be better than most are projecting if they can overcome a few key losses. I actually like the make-up of this Jackets squad. Cam Atkinson is gone but he was a general disappointment last season. Seth Jones has also moved on but he already had one foot out the door all of last season. Gone is the distraction of former head coach John Tortorella and his feuds with players. It feels like a fresh start for the Jackets and I expect them to get off to a strong start. The Coyotes have gone through some changes, most notably dealing one of their best offensive threats in Conor Garland to Vancouver. This is a team that really lacks an identity at this point and I expect them to be in tough opening the campaign on the road, where Columbus has traditionally found plenty of success. Take Columbus (10*).

10-12-21 Penguins v. Lightning -185 6-2 Loss -185 14 h 30 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday.

During the preseason we looked to back the Lightning any time they put forth anything close to resembling their 'A' squad. Yes, they're that good again this season. Little changed from the team that just hoisted Lord Stanley's cup for the second straight year, I'm confident we'll see the Bolts get the 2021-22 season off to a winning start on Tuesday night. The Penguins won't roll over, of course, in fact I do expect them to put forth a gritty effort here even without their two superstars in Geno Malkin and Sidney Crosby - both sidelined due to injuries to start the season. The Pens aren't short on depth but they are a little talent-shy, especially when compared to the Lightning. While we are dealing with a rather lofty price here, I believe it could be even higher. Rather than try to reinvent the wheel here, we'll stick with the Bolts. Take Tampa Bay (5*).

10-09-21 Hurricanes v. Predators -175 3-4 Win 100 4 h 11 m Show

My selection is on Nashville over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

It looks like the Predators will be going with close to their expected regular season roster on Saturday afternoon for their preseason finale. Meanwhile, the Canes will be sitting the majority of their regulars. The price certainly warrants such a situation, although I feel the number could have been even higher, given how well the Preds have been playing during their exhibition slate to begin with. After opening with consecutive losses to the Panthers we've seen Nashville reel off three straight wins, including a 3-2 victory over these same Canes earlier this week. Carolina is content with what it has seen from its core players, and there aren't a lot of open spots on the roster so I'm not anticipating a peak performance from it here. Take Nashville (5*).

10-07-21 Avalanche v. Stars -120 1-3 Win 100 9 h 26 m Show

My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

While Dallas is electing to go with a fairly similar lineup to the one we'll likely see in its season-opener next week, Colorado is leaving its stars home for this Thursday night matchup. Not surprisingly, we've seen the price shift with that news, but I still think we're being offered a fair price with a Stars squad that has collected at least a point in four of five preseason games to date. Dallas can certainly enter the regular season with a good feeling should it secure a third straight victory here on Thursday night (the Stars do still have one preseason game remaining on Saturday night in Colorado - we'll likely see their 'B' squad for that contest). The Avs meanwhile have put little stock in the preseason, or so it seems, losing three of their four games. That includes a 7-4 defeat at home against Vegas two nights ago, a game in which Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, among others, played significant minutes. Neither of those players traveled to Dallas for this one. Take Dallas (6*).

10-06-21 Flames v. Jets -130 2-3 Win 100 10 h 28 m Show

My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

The Jets didn't have their 'A' squad for Sunday's game in Vancouver and fell by a 3-2 score. Here, I expect them to ice a stronger lineup and bounce back from consecutive losses against the Flames. Calgary had won two games in a row before falling by a 4-3 score against Edmonton on Monday. The Flames did send a quality lineup to the ice for that rivalry tilt against the Oilers but I wouldn't count on a similar roster here. Note that this is the first of a home-and-home set to close out the preseason for these two western Canadian squads. Take Winnipeg (6*).

10-05-21 Flyers v. Islanders -159 0-3 Win 100 9 h 25 m Show

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Islanders lost their last game as a -200 favorite by way of overtime on Saturday night here at home against New Jersey. They're in a more favorable spot here, catching the Flyers playing on the second of back-to-back nights off an overtime win, yet we're being asked to lay a shorter price. All indications are that we'll see New York's 'A' squad for this contest, or as close to that as we can expect at this stage of the preseason. The same isn't likely to be the case for the Flyers, who starter Carter Hart in goal last night (he's been excellent in two preseason games) and had the likes of Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, James Van Riemsdyk - the list goes on - play significant minutes. Take New York (6*).

07-07-21 Canadiens v. Lightning -224 Top 0-1 Win 100 14 h 39 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.0 goal over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Canadiens last time out - our first time playing the Habs in this series. I won't hesitate to switch gears and come back with the Lightning in Game 5, however, as they return home and look to close out Montreal and earn their second straight Stanley Cup title.

The Canadiens made a number of key lineup changes in Game 4 and they paid off, at least to a certain extent. However, it is worth noting that the Lightning outshot the Habs in that game and just as easily could have prevailed in a game that was settled in overtime.

Here, the Lightning are in excellent position to close out the series, noting that they've gone an incredible 21-5 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they check in 12-1 when playing at home off a loss this season, averaging 4.0 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot.

Montreal averages only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a home win this season and will run into a stingy Lightning squad that has given up an average of only 1.8 goals per game when attempting to close out a playoff series over the last two seasons.

Look for the Lightning to make the necessary adjustments after seeing what the Habs new-look lineup had to offer in Game 4. They certainly don't want to give the Canadiens any extra confidence, nor do they want to return to Montreal for a Game 6. Despite the result on Monday, this series has been a mismatch. While I'm rarely interested in laying a goal-and-a-half in the NHL, I will lay the goal (-1.0) here, meaning we'll settle for a 'push' should Tampa Bay win by a single goal. Take Tampa Bay -1.0 (10*).

06-28-21 Canadiens v. Lightning -195 Top 1-5 Win 100 23 h 55 m Show

NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

We have a pretty good read on the Lightning right now having just gone 6-0-2 (including free) over the course of their seven-game series against the Islanders. Here, I look for them to get off to a positive start as they begin their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup title against the upstart Canadiens.

This is by no means a favorable matchup for the Habs. Tampa Bay has absolutely had Montreal's number over the last few seasons, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. This will of course be the first matchup between these two teams this season but I expect the Bolts dominance to continue.

Note that the Lightning are an incredible 20-3 when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. The Canadiens on the other hand are 11-21 after winning four of their last five contests over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation.

For whatever reason, we saw the Golden Knights absolutely wilt over the course of their series with the Habs. It almost seems as if a lopsided 4-1 win in Game 1 may have been their downfall as they seemed to start reading their own press and believing the series was going to be a cakewalk. I don't envision the Bolts experiencing a similar fate here. 

Home ice doesn't always mean a great deal in the NHL Playoffs, but it has most definitely meant something to the Bolts this season as they've gone 27-10 here in Tampa, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Here in the playoffs they check in giving up just 2.1 goals per game.

The Habs have proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and while I certainly don't expect them to get walked all over in this series, I do think they're going to have a very difficult time gaining the upper hand at any point against an ultra-talented and obviously experienced Lightning that has its sights set on another Stanley Cup championship. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

06-24-21 Golden Knights -140 v. Canadiens 2-3 Loss -140 9 h 24 m Show

My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

The road team has now won three of the five games in this series which is to say, home ice doesn't mean a great deal at this stage of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue tonight as the Golden Knights look to force a seventh and deciding game back home.

Keep in mind, the Knights have been a terrific road team all season, going 23-13 in the visitors role, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. While they're suddenly down 3-2 in this series there's no reason to push the panic button. They just as easily could have taken both previous games here in Montreal were it not for an untimely third period gaffe by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 3.

The Canadiens check in just 17-18 on home ice this season and despite being the team leading this series, they have to be feeling some pressure to wrap things up on Thursday at home. I look for them to fail in their first attempt at least, having gone just 13-20 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons and 4-9 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons. In both situations they've allowed north of three goals per game.

Meanwhile, the Knights are in one of their best situations here, having gone 26-8 when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. Take Vegas (10*).

06-22-21 Canadiens v. Golden Knights -233 4-1 Loss -233 14 h 24 m Show

My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We're being asked to pay a rather large tariff to back the Golden Knights back home in Game 5 of this series on Tuesday night although it's actually lower than we saw in Games 1 and 2 here in Las Vegas (at the time of writing).

Vegas falls into a quirky trend that we've supported on more than one occasion this season, that being that it has gone an incredible 19-3 the last 22 times it has come off an overtime win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. The Knights also check in as a terrific positive momentum play having gone 29-10 after a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens have gone 16-24 and allowed 3.3 goals per game when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. They're not a great road team having gone 17-19 in the visitors role this season and I just don't see them taking more than one game from the Knights here in Vegas in this series.

For Vegas' part, it has gone an incredible 27-10 on home ice this season where it averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest. I think falling behind 2-1 in this series was the wake-up call it needed. Take Vegas (9*).

06-21-21 Islanders v. Lightning -183 0-8 Win 100 23 h 48 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

We've had a pretty good read on this series so far, winning with the 'under' in Game 1, the Lightning in Game 2, the 'under' in Game 3 and 'pushing' with the 'over' in Game 4. Here, I'll go back to the well with the Lightning as they're set up well returning home off a loss in Game 4.

The Lightning are of course a dominant home team, having gone 25-10, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average here at Amalie Arena this season. Note that Tampa Bay has posted an incredible 59-22 record when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.1 goals in that spot.

Meanwhile, the Islanders average only 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road following a win this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. The Isles have certainly been a different team on the road this season, where they've gone 16-20 and average only 2.2 goals per contest. I expect them to have a tough time keeping pace with the high-powered Lightning offense, back home in a bounce-back spot here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

06-20-21 Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens 2-1 Win 100 13 h 46 m Show

My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

I can understand bettors being a little nervous backing the Golden Knights given the way they've played the last two games. However, the fact is they just as easily could have won Game 3 of this series were it not for Marc-Andre Fleury's gaffe playing the puck late in the third period. I fully expect to see Vegas bounce back here on Sunday.

Note that the Knights are 12-2 when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. They're also an incredible 28-8 when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot.

Meanwhile, Montreal is just 11-20 after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Finally, the Habs are 6-12 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals.

This is by no means a 'must-win game' for the Golden Knights but the prospect of breaking down the Habs in three straight games given the confidence Montreal is playing with right now would certainly be daunting. Look for the Knights to respond on Sunday night. Take Vegas (10*).

06-18-21 Golden Knights -158 v. Canadiens 2-3 Loss -158 11 h 40 m Show

My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday.

We won a big ticket play on the Canadiens +1.5 goals two nights ago as they stunned the Knights in a 3-2 outright victory in Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Knights to answer back as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday night.

I believe this situation sets up similarly to Game 3 in the Knights opening round series against Minnesota. The Wild managed to steal one of the first two games in Las Vegas but the Knights responded favorably to the pressure in Game 3 in Minnesota, rallying from an early deficit to deliver a 5-2 victory.

Vegas has been one of the best road teams in the NHL this season, posting a 22-12 record while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. The Habs on the other hand haven't been anything special here at the Bell Centre, posting a 16-17 record. They're currently riding a three-game winning streak here at home, which matches their longest such streak of the season. The last time they tried to make it four wins in a row on home ice they fell by a 4-3 score against the Oilers back on May 10th.

Note that the Canadiens check in a miserable 10-20 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Take Vegas (10*).

06-15-21 Islanders v. Lightning -182 Top 2-4 Win 100 31 h 22 m Show

NHL Stanley Cup Semi-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Lightning got off to a typically sluggish start in Game 1 of this series on Sunday, not all that surprising given they had been idle for four full days after finishing off the Hurricanes in five games. They did ultimately come alive in the latter stages of that contest, but it was too little, too late in a 2-1 loss.

Here, I look for Tampa Bay to bounce back on home ice, where they've gone 24-10, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average this season. Note that the Bolts are an incredible 19-3 after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. They're also a rock solid 58-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons.

The Islanders have now won four games in a row - their longest winning streak since April 1st to 8th. On that occasion, they failed to make it five straight victories, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Rangers. New York is a long-term loser when playing on the road after winning three or more games in a row, going 28-57 in their last 85 opportunities.

Note that the Isles are averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

06-10-21 Avalanche +127 v. Golden Knights 3-6 Loss -100 14 h 59 m Show

My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

I don't expect the Avs to go away quietly in this series, keeping in mind the Golden Knights are just 3-8 when attempting to close out a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Colorado does have two victories to its credit here in Las Vegas this season and despite dropping Games 3 and 4 here, has proven to be a solid road team this season, posting a 20-13 record. Note that the Avs have allowed just 1.8 goals per game and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games this season. They've also held opponents to 1.3 goals and outscored them by 1.5 goals on average when coming off consecutive games where they were held to two goals or less. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series with the Knights holding just a slight 10-9 edge in the last 19 meetings over the last three seasons. I expected a seven-game war heading into the series and I believe the Knights will be in tough trying to register a fourth straight victory over the Avs on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*).

06-08-21 Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 Top 3-2 Loss -144 24 h 52 m Show

NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*).

06-07-21 Islanders v. Bruins -179 Top 5-4 Loss -179 21 h 23 m Show

NHL East Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over New York at 6:35 pm et on Monday.

New York evened up this series with a convincing 4-1 victory at a raucous Nassau Coliseum on Saturday. Now I look for the Bruins to take back control of the series as the scene shifts back to Boston on Monday. Note that Boston is 13-1 when playing at home after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Islanders average a miserable 1.9 goals per game when on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins are 20-11 on home ice this season where they average an impressive 3.4 goals per game. Look for the Isles to once again have a tough time keeping pace on Monday night. Take Boston (10*).

06-05-21 Hurricanes v. Lightning -152 4-6 Win 100 10 h 31 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Carolina at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Hurricanes were clearly the more desperate team in Game 3 of this series and ultimately skated away with a 3-2 overtime victory on a power play goal in the first extra period. Here, I look for the Lightning to punch back. We won with the Canes (on the puck-line) in Game 3 so the fact that they pulled off the 'upset' didn't come as a surprise. It was very unlikely Carolina was going to go away quietly in this series. However, the Canes are in a tougher spot here on Saturday, unable to gain the same mental boost from the goalie change to Petr Mrazek and quite possibly without one of their best players in Vincent Trocheck once again. While there's a chance Trocheck will return, how effective he can be remains to be seen. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 57-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game on average. They've also taken five of the last eight meetings between these two teams in Tampa. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

06-04-21 Canadiens v. Jets -114 Top 1-0 Loss -114 14 h 36 m Show

NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Friday.

One would think the Jets would be at a major disadvantage here, not only down 1-0 in the series but now also without one of their best players in Mark Scheifele after his bone-headed decision to charge Jake Evans for a vicious hit in the final minute of Game 1. I actually feel his absence could be galvanizing in nature for this Jets squad that has faced plenty of adversity this season, while serving as more of a distraction for the Canadiens, who should be focused on trying to take a 2-0 stranglehold on this series rather than on exacting revenge for Scheifele's hit. Regardless, the Habs are set up poorly here having gone 1-7 after winning three straight games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. In a bit of a quirky trend, they're also a miserable 11-26 when playing their third straight road game over the last two seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game in that spot. Finally, it's worth noting that they're 4-12 after consecutive wins by two or more goals over the last three seasons, giving up an average of 3.7 goals in that situation. For their part, the Jets are 11-4 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and better still, 28-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four or more goals over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game in that spot. They've proven to be a terrific bounce-back team, going 24-12 following a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. This will be the 11th meeting between these two teams this season and Montreal has yet to record three consecutive victories. I don't see it happening tonight either. Take Winnipeg (10*).

06-01-21 Lightning v. Hurricanes -110 2-1 Loss -110 12 h 18 m Show

My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday.

While we missed with the Canes in Game 1 of this series on Sunday I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again in Game 2 as they look to even this series at one game apiece. Carolina actually outshot Tampa Bay by a 38-30 margin in Game 1 but was ultimately foiled by what could only be called a 'bad goal' given up by Alex Nedeljkovic in the third period. Carolina is still 23-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. The Canes know that if they're going to have any shot at dethroning the defending Stanley Cup champions they need this win as taking four out of the next five games is likely too tall of a task against a team as good as the Lightning. As terrific as the Lightning have been in recent years, this isn't an ideal spot for them as they've gone just 20-23 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons. Take Carolina (10*).

05-30-21 Lightning v. Hurricanes -105 2-1 Loss -105 9 h 25 m Show

My selection is on Carolina over Tampa Bay at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

This promises to be an incredible series between two true Stanley Cup contenders. I like the Hurricanes to hold serve in Sunday's series-opener. Note that Carolina hasn't just been good at home this season, it has been phenomenal, going 23-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay checks in a modest 16-14 on the road with its shooting percentage dropping considerably from its season average of 10.9% to 9.4%. The Canes have posted an incredible 11-1 record when at home off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.7 goals on average in that spot. They've also gone 9-1 off an overtime win this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals. I would match a healthy Hurricanes squad up against any other team in the league in terms of talent - even against the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. All respect to Tampa Bay, but I look for Carolina to come out strong in this series. Take Carolina (10*).

05-29-21 Islanders v. Bruins -179 2-5 Win 100 13 h 7 m Show

My selection is on Boston over New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Bruins dropped Game 1 of their opening round series with the Capitals but went on to reel off four straight wins from there to dispose of Washington with little trouble. Meanwhile, the Islanders won Game 1 against the Penguins in overtime, setting the stage for a 4-2 series victory. Here, I look for a reversal of roles as the Bruins hold serve at TD Garden in Saturday's round two opener. Boston has been a solid home team all season, going 19-10 while outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average. The Isles check in just 13-18 on the road, where they average a miserable 2.1 goals per game. This one doesn't set up particularly well for New York, noting that it has gone 3-10 when on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, averaging just 1.8 goals per game in that situation. It has also gone a miserable 27-56 the last 83 times it has played on the road off three straight victories, as is the case here. The Bruins have averaged 3.1 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.9 goals on average when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons. I much prefer backing the Isles after a loss as they just seem to be a team that responds well to adversity. Look for the Bruins to hand them some of that here in Game 1. Take Boston (10*).

05-29-21 Maple Leafs -182 v. Canadiens 2-3 Loss -182 13 h 50 m Show

My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Saturday.

The Leafs doubters are out in full force after Toronto failed to close out this series on home ice two nights ago (we won with the Canadiens +1.5 goals in that one). I don't think Toronto is about to hit the panic button just yet, however, and look for it to finish off the Habs on Saturday night at the Bell Centre. Yes, the Canadiens will have fans in the stands for the first time this season which should certainly give them an emotional lift. I think it also helps the Leafs, however, as they'll also be playing in front of an audience (albeit limited) for the first time this season. As I've pointed out time and time again over the years, home ice doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs, as road teams can feed off the energy just as much as the home sides more often than not. Here, Toronto is set up exceptionally well, noting that it has gone 11-1 when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Montreal is just 2-8 following a one-goal win this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. In fact, the Habs are a miserable 8-17 off a win of any kind this season and 18-28 after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Going back over the last two seasons, the Leafs average a whopping 3.9 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent and give up only 1.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season. This will be the 16th meeting between these rivals this season and we've yet to see the Habs pick up consecutive victories. Take Toronto (10*).

05-28-21 Wild v. Golden Knights -172 2-6 Win 100 16 h 41 m Show

My selection is on Vegas over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

The Knights seemed to have this series all wrapped up after Game 4 with a 3-1 lead heading back home. However, they botched Game 5 and proceeded to get shut out in Game 6. So now here we are in a seventh and deciding game. I believe it still sets up well for the Knights on home ice. Note that Vegas has gone a perfect 11-0 revenging a road loss against an opponent by three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. They're also 11-1 when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals. Vegas has been a terrific home team all season, going 22-9 while allowing just 2.2 goals per game. By contrast, Minnesota is just one game over .500 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Look for the Knights to defend home ice and advance to face the Avs with a victory on Friday. Take Vegas (10*).

05-26-21 Panthers v. Lightning -138 0-4 Win 100 14 h 55 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This one sets up well for the Lightning to close out the Panthers on home ice. Florida took Game 5 by a 4-1 score two nights ago as Tampa Bay just couldn't match the Panthers hunger facing elimination. Here, I look for the Lightning to do everything they can to avoid a return trip to Sunrise, noting that they have a number of key players playing injured and can use all the rest they can get. Tampa Bay checks in 38-12 after losing two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Better still, the Lightning are 36-10 when coming off a loss by two goals or more over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average. They're also an incredible 18-3 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Tampa Bay owns a decisive 7-3 edge on home ice against the Panthers over the last three seasons and I believe its Game 5 setback will only serve as a minor speedbump on its way to wrapping up this series. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

05-26-21 Penguins +100 v. Islanders Top 3-5 Loss -100 13 h 36 m Show

NHL First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday.

Off a 50-shot barrage in a losing effort on Monday I look for the Penguins to finally capitalize on their opportunities and force a seventh and deciding game in this series with a victory in Uniondale on Wednesday. Note that Pittsburgh checks in a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 23-11 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They obviously come into this game with double-revenge off consecutive losses and I'll point to the fact that they've gone 18-5 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. While the Isles do hold a 7-5 edge against the Pens here on Long Island over the last three seasons, three of those five Pittsburgh victories have come this season. This has had the feel of a seven-game series all the way and I expect it to play out accordingly on Wednesday. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

05-25-21 Predators v. Hurricanes -186 2-3 Win 100 14 h 58 m Show

My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

This one sets up perfectly for the Hurricanes as they look to rebound on home ice after suffering consecutive overtime losses in Nashville. Note that the Predators are 0-6 off two straight one-goal wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. They're also 10-23 when coming off consecutive victories over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals per game in that situation. As we noted at the start of this series, home ice would likely be the ultimate decider and so far it has been with the hosts winning all four games for a 2-2 series through five. With the Canes checking in 22-8 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals per game, look for them to gain the upper hand on Tuesday night. Take Carolina (10*).

05-24-21 Islanders v. Penguins -135 Top 3-2 Loss -135 11 h 12 m Show

NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Penguins took one on the chin on Saturday afternoon in Uniondale, suffering a lopsided 4-1 defeat to even the series up at two games apiece. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to answer back on home ice where it has gone 23-7 this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 goals. Note that Pittsburgh checks in 9-1 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 16-2 at home off a loss over the last two seasons, holding a 1.8-goal scoring edge in that situation. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series in recent years so it's no surprise at all that it's all tied up through four games. However, I do think home ice means something at this stage of the series and like the Pens to defend it here. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

05-23-21 Oilers -125 v. Jets 4-5 Loss -125 13 h 40 m Show

My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Sunday.

Most didn't give the Jets much of a chance of even winning a game in this series let alone stealing the first two contests in Edmonton. But that's precisely what they did and now they return home with a chance to take full control of the series on Sunday night. I don't see it happening, however. Note that the Oilers are a perfect 7-0 when revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 8-1 this season on the road off a loss, outscoring opponents by 2.1 on average in that spot. Meanwhile, in an odd quirk, the Jets have gone a miserable 2-11 off an overtime win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 2-8 after winning three or more games in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Ordinarily the Jets would have a big edge playing at home in front of a raucous 'white out' crowd here in the postseason. Due to the pandemic that's simply not the case this year. Note that Winnipeg has gone just 13-15 on home ice this season. Look for the Oilers to get back in the series on Sunday night. Take Edmonton (10*).

05-22-21 Golden Knights v. Wild +109 4-0 Loss -100 9 h 4 m Show

My selection is on Minnesota over Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

Game 3 should have been pretty easy for the Wild to flush as they simply didn't show enough fight after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead and got burned by a superior Golden Knights squad. I do expect to see some push-back from Minnesota in what amounts to a virtual must-win game on Saturday night. Note that the Wild are a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They're also 17-6 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. There's no reason for them to fold the tent here as they know they can skate with the Knights, having taken nine of the last 16 meetings overall including four of the last seven here in Minnesota. While I still have Vegas winning this series, I like the Wild to even things up on Saturday night. Take Minnesota (9*).

05-22-21 Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 Top 1-5 Win 100 13 h 50 m Show

NHL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

Credit the Canadiens for staging the Game 1 upset two nights ago, delivering a 2-1 victory despite getting outshot by a 36-30 margin. Even after losing John Tavares to a scary concussion, the Leafs shouldn't be down on themselves heading into Game 2 on Saturday night. They're still 18-11 at home this season and 6-3 in their last nine meetings with the Canadiens here in Toronto. They've been tremendous when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, going 10-1 while outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average. While the Leafs aren't necessarily known for their ability to overcome adversity, they're actually an impressive 23-11 the last 37 times they've been trailing a playoff series. The Canadiens check in 3-11 off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and 8-16 off a victory this season. Look for the Leafs to answer back in a big way on Saturday. Take Toronto (10*).

05-21-21 Jets v. Oilers -156 Top 1-0 Loss -156 32 h 12 m Show

NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

This one sets up nicely for the Oilers as they look to bounce back following a disappointing 4-1 loss in Wednesday's series-opener. The Jets limped down the stretch losing nine of their final 12 regular season games including three against these same Oilers but perhaps that played a role in Edmonton taking a win for granted in Game 1. In fact, prior to Wednesday's contest, the Oilers had won six straight meetings with the Jets. Now it's the Oilers with all of the motivation as they look to even up the series before it shifts to Winnipeg for the next two games. Note that the Jets check in a miserable 3-13 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. They're also just 6-17 when coming off a road victory by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals per game in that situation as well. Meanwhile, the Oilers check in 15-4 when coming off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. They're 7-1 when coming off consecutive losses by two or more goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal. Give the Jets all the credit in the world for stealing Game 1 as they were actually outshot by a fairly wide margin but they're a gritty road team, having gone 18-11 away from home this season, and found a way to get the 'W'. However, now that they've accomplished what was likely their goal of earning at least a split in the first two games in Edmonton, look for the Oilers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Friday. Take Edmonton (10*).

05-18-21 Lightning v. Panthers +119 Top 3-1 Loss -100 14 h 51 m Show

NHL First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Lightning got past the Panthers on a late goal from Brayden Point in Sunday's thrilling series-opener between these in-state rivals. I look for Florida to answer back with a victory on Tuesday night. The Panthers know just how difficult it would be to take four of the next five games should they fall into an 0-2 series hole on Tuesday. After all, Tampa Bay has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The Panthers should remain confident here, however, noting that they've held their own against the Bolts this season, going 5-4 in nine meetings. With a win here on Tuesday, the Panthers would even up the series here in Sunrise over the last three seasons at five wins apiece. Note that Tampa Bay checks into this game having gone 0-4 when playing on the road off a one-goal road victory this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals while allowing 4.8 goals per game in that situation. In fact, the Lightning are just 19-23 when coming off a one-goal win regardless of the location over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Panthers have gone 14-3 after giving up four goals or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. They also check in a perfect 8-0 this season after a game where both teams scored at least four goals, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals while averaging 4.3 goals per game in that situation. At 20-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game, I look for the Panthers to come up with a big effort to even this series on Tuesday night. Take Florida (10*).

05-18-21 Islanders v. Penguins -133 1-2 Win 100 8 h 3 m Show

My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday.

This would be a big spot for the Penguins at the best of times but when you consider they were swept by the Islanders in the opening round of the playoffs just two years ago, perhaps even more importance will be placed on getting the victory here. Sunday's series-opener obviously could have gone either way. Credit the Isles for sticking with it and scoring the overtime winner after coughing up a short-lived 3-2 lead late in the third period. Here, New York finds itself in a difficult spot having gone just 12-17 on the road this season where it averages only 2.1 goals per game. Even worse, the Isles average just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pens own a tremendous 14-1 mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.3 goals per game in that situation. Pittsburgh is 15-2 the last 17 times it has played at home following a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game and averaging 4.2 goals per contest itself in that spot. Take Pittsburgh (9*).

05-17-21 Predators v. Hurricanes -179 Top 2-5 Win 100 13 h 12 m Show

NHL Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

Nashville went on an incredible run from the middle of March on to earn a playoff spot but what is its reward? A date with the first-place Hurricanes in the opening round. As I noted in my playoff preview article, home ice is going to mean something in this series as the Hurricanes check in 20-8 in Raleigh this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. While Nashville went 18-10 on home ice during the regular season, it was just 13-15 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per game in the process. The Preds have had little recent success here in Raleigh, dropping five of the last six meetings in this series. While Nashville did close out the regular season with consecutive victories over the Canes, those both came at home, and Carolina had essentially already checked out on the regular season. Note that Nashville is now in a poor position, having gone 10-22 when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Here, I expect to see a much different Canes squad, one that will be eager to get this postseason off to a positive start after such a disappointing early exit at the hands of the Bruins last year. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back Carolina here, I believe it could be even higher. Take Carolina (10*).

05-10-21 Stars -130 v. Blackhawks Top 5-4 Win 100 10 h 6 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

The Blackhawks got the better of the Stars in a somewhat meaningless affair last night in Chicago but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas didn't quit, outshooting the Blackhawks by a wide margin of 39-25. I look for the Stars to wrap up an otherwise disappointing season with a victory on Monday night. It's easy to forget that the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final in the Edmonton bubble last fall. While the 2021 campaign has certainly not gone their way, the same could be said for the Blackhawks. Here, Dallas is set up well, having gone 20-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing just 2.5 goals per game in that situation. The Blackhawks check in a miserable 2-9 at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Worse still, Chicago is 0-6 when at home off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, allowing a whopping 5.2 goals per game and outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. While they have nothing but pride to play for, the Stars have generally done a good job of tightening things up in similar situations, allowing just 2.1 goals per game off a division loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (10*).

05-09-21 Senators v. Flames -190 1-6 Win 100 13 h 15 m Show

My selection is on Calgary over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

While both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point, I believe the spot favors the Flames as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss against the Jets last time out and aim to revenge four consecutive losses against the Senators, including a 4-2 loss here in Calgary in their most recent meeting on April 19th. Note that Calgary is a perfect 6-0 when revenging consecutive losses in which their opponent scored at least three goals this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. They're also 45-24 after giving up four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. While the Sens are certainly playing some of their best hockey right now, they're still just 9-18 on the road this season where they allow right around four goals per game. The Flames check in having gone 6-5 over their last 11 games, giving up two goals or less in eight of those contests. Despite dropping the last meeting here, they've won three of the last five matchups between these two teams in Calgary. Take Calgary (10*).

05-08-21 Devils v. Islanders -220 Top 1-5 Win 100 13 h 56 m Show

NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*).

05-07-21 Blues v. Golden Knights -158 Top 3-4 Win 100 14 h 16 m Show

NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams will be heading to the postseason but the Knights have a little more to play for in this two-game set as they try to lock up home ice advantage throughout with an outside shot at grabbing the league's top overall seed. They'll also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss in St. Louis back on April 7th (the Knights outshot the Blues 51-35 in that game). Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 17-2 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Knights are a terrific positive momentum play here having gone 27-7 all-time off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. It's the opposite story for the Blues as they limp to Las Vegas off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Ducks. Note that St. Louis has gone a miserable 11-21 when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blues also check in 3-8 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.2 goals per game in that spot. While we have seen a few defensive lapses from the Knights lately, those have been few and far between here at home, where they allow just 2.2 goals per game on the season. Take Vegas (10*).

05-05-21 Kings v. Coyotes -130 4-2 Loss -130 15 h 37 m Show

My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

With both of these teams simply playing out the string at this point I like the Coyotes to bounce back on home ice following a 3-2 loss to the Kings two nights ago. That marked the 'Yotes second straight loss but they haven't lost more than two in a row since dropping five straight games from April 7th to 14th. Of course, all five of those losses came on the road at the end of a long nine-game trek. Prior to that, you would have to go back to March 10th to 18th to find the last time Arizona lost more than two straight games - again, that five-game skid came on the road. The Coyotes are much better-positioned to bounce back here at home, having gone a perfect 6-0 when playing at home following consecutive losses this season, outscoring opponents by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They're also 21-11 when playing at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kings check in a miserable 1-10 when coming off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 2.1 goals in that situation. The fact that Los Angeles is 5-2 in its last seven games played here in Arizona is playing pretty heavy in the betting marketplace and I think it explains why this price is as short as it is. However, I do expect the Coyotes to put forth a strong performance in what is their home finale. Take Arizona (10*).

05-05-21 Jets +109 v. Flames 4-0 Win 109 14 h 56 m Show

My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Jets on Monday as they fell by a 2-1 score in Ottawa in a game they dominated most of the way. There's more upside than first appears with Winnipeg here in my opinion as they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal two games back before generating plenty of good scoring opportunities against the Sens on Monday. A breakout is certainly coming and I want to be behind the Jets when it happens. This is a fine spot to project that happening with the Flames having gone 5-11 when coming off consecutive road games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. The Jets are 7-1 when coming off a one-goal loss this season, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Also note that the Jets have gone 12-3 when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that spot. The Flames do check in having won three of their last five games overall but that's probably about as much as we could expect from them at this point. As bad as things have gone for the Jets lately, they're still going to be heading to the playoffs and can hang their hat on a solid 16-11 road record, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals this season. Take Winnipeg (10*).

05-03-21 Jets -142 v. Senators Top 1-2 Loss -142 22 h 0 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Jets are reeling after six consecutive losses but have had a couple of days off to regroup before facing the Senators in Ottawa on Monday night. We won with the Jets in their last matchup with the Sens on April 14th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Winnipeg has taken four of the last six meetings here in Ottawa. The Senators have been playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of six of their last nine games overall. Note that the Sens are averaging just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a same season loss against an opponent here in 2021, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are 8-1 coming off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game in that spot. They're 11-3, averaging 3.9 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The Jets are dealing with the absence of Nik Ehlers as he's sidelined for the season with a shoulder injury but it's not as if he's the heart and soul of the team. This is an experienced, well-coached team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back with a much-needed victory on Monday night. Take Winnipeg (10*).

04-29-21 Islanders +114 v. Rangers Top 4-0 Win 114 13 h 42 m Show

NHL Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Islanders are having a tough time finding an offensive spark right now, having scored just three goals during a three-game losing streak - with all of those losses coming against the Capitals. They'll be happy to face a different team here tonight, especially the rival Rangers here at Madison Square Garden where they've taken four of the last seven meetings. While the Rangers have won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, it's important to consider the level of opposition they've faced. Those nine games including games against the Devils (four), Islanders, Flyers (two) and Sabres (two). Outside of the Isles those other three are all non-playoff teams and could be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league. Here, the Rangers are in a tough spot having gone 3-10 the last 13 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Isles won't be confused for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, they are in a favorable situation here having averaged 4.0 goals per game the last eight times they've come off a one-goal loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Under the guidance of head coach Barry Trotz, the Isles have gone 14-7 the last 21 times they've played on the road after losing three of their last four games overall, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the David Quinn-coached rangers are just 18-30 when coming off a win over a division opponent, giving up 3.4 goals per game in that spot. Take the Islanders (10*).

04-27-21 Hurricanes -124 v. Stars Top 5-1 Win 100 11 h 7 m Show

NHL Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hurricanes got off a miserable start last night and despite rallying they ultimately fell short in a 4-3 overtime loss. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they cool off the surging Stars in Dallas. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They've allowed just 1.8 goals per game the last 12 times they've played on the road following an overtime setback, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in allowing 3.3 goals per game after posting consecutive one-goal victories over division opponents (the last eight times that situation has come up). The Stars will have to contend with a Canes squad that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. It's been a true case of 'feast or famine' for the Stars offense for much of the season, noting that they average 3.3 goals per game on home ice but have only managed to go an even 13-13. Look for Carolina to get off to a more favorable start in tonight's game and snap its two-game skid, noting that it hasn't dropped three games in a row since March 16th-20th. Take Carolina (10*).

04-27-21 Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -136 0-1 Win 100 9 h 57 m Show

My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

It's not easy to back the Blue Jackets these days but I believe the price is right to get behind them as they look to snap their nine-game losing streak against the Red Wings on Tuesday night. Note that Columbus has gone 7-1 the last eight times it has played at home off seven or more consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Blue Jackets are also 10-2 when returning home following three or more consecutive road games over the last three season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. Detroit, meanwhile, has gone a miserable 6-37 when playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals per game. Columbus has gone a nice job of tightening things up defensively in similar situations in recent years, allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. While the Jackets are reeling, I'm not going to get too down on them as they're off a very tough six-game road trip that saw them face a surging Stars squad, the Panthers and the Lightning - with the latter two serving as two of the league's top teams. Three losses during their current skid came on home ice, but the first was in a revenge spot for the Lightning and the other two certainly could have gone either way as they dropped consecutive one-goal decisions against the Blackhawks. Note that Columbus has won three of its last four meetings with Detroit on home ice. Sitting two points behind the Wings in the standings you have to think that pride kicks in for the Jackets here. Take Columbus (10*).

04-26-21 Ducks v. Kings -154 1-4 Win 100 11 h 13 m Show

My selection is on Los Angeles over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

This really has been a lost season for both of these California rivals but it's the Ducks that are in even worse shape down the stretch, having lost four straight games, scoring just four goals in the process and now dealing with a cluster of key injuries. This is an awful spot to begin with for Anaheim as it has gone 0-11 when revenging a loss against an opponent by three goals or more this season, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a solid bounce-back spot off Saturday's 4-0 home loss to the Coyotes (we won with the 'under' in that game) as they average 3.4 goals per game and outscore the opposition by 1.4 goals on average when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Los Angeles averages an impressive 3.9 goals per game after losing four of its last five games this season and 3.3 goals per contest after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games here in 2021. While the Kings check in off consecutive losses, they haven't dropped three games in a row since April 2nd to 5th. The Ducks current four-game skid doesn't come close to matching their longest losing streak of the season, which covered a span of nine games from February 15th until March 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*).

04-26-21 Oilers v. Jets +100 Top 6-1 Loss -100 15 h 4 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Monday.

The Jets bandwagon has essentially cleared following a three-game losing streak that started with a 3-0 loss to the same Oilers squad they'll play on Monday night. There's no need to push the panic button as Winnipeg is still firmly entrenched in one of four North Division playoff spots. The time to turn things around is certainly now, however, and I like their chances of doing just that on Monday night. The Oilers will be playing just their fifth game since April 10th and I do think we could see rust become a bit of a factor here. Note that the Jets are in a favorable spot here, having averaged 3.6 goals per game after scoring a goal or less in their previous contest this season and better still, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Winnipeg has gone 23-11 when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that situation. The Jets also check in 21-10 after losing consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. The Oilers are a long-term losing proposition when playing with three or more days rest, having gone 60-97 in their last 157 games in that situation, outscored by 0.3 goals on average. Finally, note that Edmonton averages just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games this season. The Oilers have taken four straight meetings and five of seven games in this matchup this season which should only help ratchet up the Jets motivation level for this one. Take Winnipeg (10*).

04-23-21 Canadiens v. Flames -105 Top 2-4 Win 100 15 h 57 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

We won with the Canadiens +1.5 in their outright victory in Edmonton two nights ago. They have a solid hold on the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division but the Flames have an opportunity to close the gap with three straight home games against the Habs, beginning with this one on Friday night. Note that Montreal is just 6-13 coming off a win this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Habs are 2-8 the last 10 times they've come off a one-goal win over a division opponent, as is the case here, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames check in 28-15 in their last 43 games after giving up four goals or more in their last contest, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. While Montreal will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, the Flames will be taking to the ice for just the third time over that same stretch. Having dropped their last two, including a 2-1 setback against these same Canadiens one week ago tonight, this is a virtual must-win for Calgary and it should be confident having taken four of the previous six meetings in this series this season. Take Calgary (10*).

04-23-21 Flyers v. Rangers -154 1-4 Win 100 9 h 59 m Show

My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

The Flyers took the front half of this back-to-back set in New York by a 3-2 score last night, marking their fifth win in their last six tries here at MSG. The Rangers were in a clear hangover spot there after suffering a 6-1 beatdown against the rival Islanders two nights earlier. Here, I look for New York to respond favorably, noting that Philadelphia is 0-6 when coming off a one-goal road loss this season, outscored by a whopping average margin of 4.1 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 19-9 in their last 27 games following a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot over the last two seasons. Philadelphia has now scored three goals or less in 12 straight games and when you consider it has allowed 4.0 goals per game when coming off a win this season, this is by no means an ideal situation on Friday night. The Rangers have been held to three goals in their last two contests but should bounce back here, noting they average 3.5 goals per game when playing with double-revenge on home ice over the last two seasons. The last time the Rangers lost consecutive games against the Flyers - the situation they're in tonight - they responded with a 9-0 victory here in Manhattan. Take New York (10*).

04-22-21 Senators v. Canucks -131 3-0 Loss -131 10 h 39 m Show

My selection is on Vancouver over Ottawa at 10:05 pm et on Thursday.

While the odds are still slim, the Canucks do still have hopes of reaching the playoffs at this point, thanks in large part to returning from an extended Covid-related absence with consecutive wins over the Leafs earlier this week. Now Vancouver has an opportunity to continue to gain ground on the fourth-place Canadiens and fifth-place Flames as they stare down four straight matchups with the Senators, a team that while playing better lately, they have owned in recent years. The Canucks have actually taken five straight home meetings against the Sens and are a perfect 5-0 against them here this season, most recently skating to consecutive 3-2 victories in Ottawa back in mid-March. Note that the Sens have allowed a whopping 5.3 goals per game and have been outscored by 2.2 goals on average the last 18 times they've played on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent. Also consider that Ottawa is a miserable 1-15 the last 16 times it has come off consecutive games in which it has allowed two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, the Sens are 5-29 the last 34 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. While this is certainly a unique situation with the Canucks playing their third game back following such a long layoff, I believe they're being underpriced here. Note that Vancouver has gone 11-2 the last 13 times it has come off a home win by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Take Vancouver (9*).

04-19-21 Senators v. Flames -205 4-2 Loss -205 12 h 26 m Show

My selection is on Calgary over Ottawa at 9:05 pm et on Monday.

I don't often back teams in this price range but I'm willing to make an exception on Monday as the situation sets up particularly well for the Flames at home against the Senators. Calgary is coming off a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Montreal but had to come away encouraged after taking two of three games on its road trip that also included a stop in Toronto. The Flames have now won three of their last four games to stay in the playoff hunt in the North Division. In an odd scheduling quirk (even for 2021), the Flames will host the Canadiens - the team they're trying to catch for the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division - for four consecutive games after a quick trip to Vancouver to face the Canucks (following tonight's game). To keep pace, this game tonight is precisely the type of contest they need to win. I expect them to do just that. Ottawa did Calgary a favor by defeating Montreal 4-0 on Saturday afternoon. That sets the Sens up poorly here, noting that they've gone a miserable 0-12 the last 12 times they've come off a victory by two goals or more against a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game in that situation. Perhaps worse still, they're 4-29 the last 33 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in 9-1 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it scored one goal or less in both games, as is the case here. The Flames have averaged an impressive 4.8 goals per game in that situation, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average. Note that Calgary has taken three of the last four meetings with Ottawa here on home ice. Take Calgary (10*).

04-14-21 Jets -174 v. Senators Top 3-2 Win 100 13 h 10 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Senators on the puck-line in Monday's outright win over the Jets but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Jets in Wednesday's rematch. It was fairly obvious to me that the Jets might have already thought they had a win in the bag after jumping ahead 2-0 early in Monday's game. But as they've done time and time again this season, the Sens fought back, erasing that deficit in short order before eventually taking over the game in the third period. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Jets turn in a more complete effort as they aim to get back on track before a tougher matchup in Toronto on Thursday. Note that Winnipeg has gone 10-3 when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons, averaging 4.0 goals per game in that situation and outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals per game. The Jets are also 8-1 revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-11 the last 11 times it has come off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game on average in that situation. We've also seen the Sens average just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. While the Jets have dropped two of their last three games against the Senators, they're still 5-2 against them this season and have taken three of the last five meetings here in Ottawa. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with Winnipeg here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take Winnipeg (10*).

04-13-21 Panthers -112 v. Stars Top 3-2 Win 100 12 h 8 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The Panthers have suddenly lost three games in a row after taking over the league lead in points with a win back on April 4th. I do look for them to bounce back in the back half of this two-game set in Dallas, however. Note that while the Panthers have been idle in Dallas since suffering a 4-1 loss here on Saturday, the Stars went out on the road and lost in overtime at Nashville on Sunday. If the Panthers are going to be sitting around Dallas for four days they might as well get a win out of it. I like their chances here. Note that Florida has gone 29-15 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They also average 4.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. The Stars got off to an incredibly fast start in Saturday's eventual 4-1 win over the Panthers, scoring twice in the game's first two minutes and grabbing a 3-0 first period lead to essentially force Florida away from its gameplan. Here, I look for the Panthers to get the early jump, noting that the Stars have suffered a bit of a hangover effect, averaging a miserable 1.6 goals per game when returning home off a division loss on the road over the last two seasons. The Panthers are giving up just 2.4 goals per game when coming off a loss this season and check in 12-9 on the road. It's been feast or famine for the Stars at home, as they've outscored opponents by 0.6 goals per game but own a disappointing 8-12 record here in Big D. Take Florida (10*).

04-10-21 Lightning -175 v. Predators Top 3-0 Win 100 11 h 38 m Show

NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Lightning had been struggling prior to a six-goal outburst in a win over the Blue Jackets on Thursday. Now they head to Nashville where they look to keep hopes of a winning road trip alive against the surging Predators. I like Tampa Bay's chances here as it has taken three of the last four meetings in Nashville and will be out for revenge after suffering a stunning 4-1 loss against the Preds on home ice back on March 15th. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 34-11 after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. They're a terrific positive momentum play here as they've gone 36-11 after posting a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Preds check in just 4-13 coming off consecutive road wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal per game along the way. They've won just twice in their last 10 home games when coming off three straight wins, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

04-09-21 Kings +119 v. Sharks Top 2-5 Loss -100 12 h 49 m Show

NHL Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Kings after they snapped a three-game losing streak with a come-from-behind win over the Coyotes on home ice two nights ago. While they were able to get back on track, the Sharks have had to sit on an ugly 5-1 home loss against the lowly Ducks since suffering that setback on Tuesday night. San Jose is now just 7-9 on home ice this season, where it allows 3.4 goals per game. Note that the Kings are in a favorable spot here, as they average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. Los Angeles has averaged 3.3 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals when revenging a one-goal loss this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Sharks average just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home after allowing five goals or more in their last contest. San Jose has owned this series this season, taking five of six meetings so far, but I look for the Kings to get one back in the front half of this two-game set tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*).

04-08-21 Penguins +109 v. Rangers Top 5-2 Win 109 12 h 13 m Show

NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

I think we're dealing with a bit of an overreaction here following the Rangers 8-4 thrashing of the Penguins on Tuesday night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Pittsburgh has now dropped back-to-back games, in fact, allowing a whopping 15 goals in the process. I don't think it's time to hit the panic button, however, noting that prior to those two contests the Pens had held 15 straight opponents to three goals or less. Pittsburgh is set up well here on Thursday, noting that it has gone a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive division losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 goals per game in that situation. The Pens are also 24-10 after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we've seen Pittsburgh post a 14-4 record when revenging a loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 3-11 in their last 14 games played at home following a win over a division opponent. While the Blueshirts took Tuesday's matchup in blowout fashion, the Pens have held their own here at MSG, splitting the last six meetings. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

04-07-21 Coyotes v. Kings -114 Top 3-4 Win 100 24 h 28 m Show

NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed the mark with the Kings in a game that was never close against the Coyotes on Monday. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Los Angeles here as it aims to snap its three-game skid on home ice. While the Coyotes have reeled off three straight road wins, this will be their fifth game in the last eight nights and it's certainly worth noting that they have been outscored by 0.4 goals per game on the road this season. The Kings average 4.0 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. They've also gone 5-1 off three or more straight home losses over the last three seasons, giving up just 1.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average of 1.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Arizona checks in a miserable 26-63 the last 89 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed two goals or less, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Take Los Angeles (10*).

04-05-21 Coyotes v. Kings -120 5-2 Loss -120 12 h 11 m Show

My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

We missed the mark with the Kings on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score against the Sharks. That marked their second straight loss after splitting a two-game set in Las Vegas. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as Los Angeles stays at home to host the Coyotes, who are off an overtime win Anaheim last night. That sets up Arizona poorly as it checks in 2-11 off a road win by one goal over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. The Kings check in outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In the long-term picture, the 'Yotes have posted a miserable 25-63 record after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games, outscored by 0.9 goals per game in that spot. While Arizona has won six of its last eight games overall, four of those victories came against losing opponents in the Sharks and Ducks and the other came in a shootout against the Avalanche (with Colorado starting its third-string goaltender). Take Los Angeles (10*).

04-04-21 Blue Jackets v. Panthers -165 0-3 Win 100 8 h 51 m Show

My selection is on Florida over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jackets are a mess right now, having lost six of their last seven games, and don't figure to get back in the win column against the streaking Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Florida has won five consecutive games and certainly wants to keep that streak intact before heading out on the road on its longest trip of the season (six games). Florida is 13-7 on home ice this season, where it averages 3.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, Columbus has gone 7-13 on the road, averaging a less than impressive 2.1 goals per contest. Note that the Blue Jackets average just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive losses this season. I don't feel they can keep up with a Panthers squad that averages 3.7 goals per game following a division win over the last two seasons, noting that Florida welcomed back Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist last night with the pair chipping in two assists and seven combined shots on goal in Florida's 5-2 victory. Take Florida (10*).

04-03-21 Sharks v. Kings -117 Top 3-2 Loss -117 13 h 44 m Show

NHL Rivalry Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Jose at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Kings returned home and couldn't keep the positive momentum building in a 3-0 loss to the Sharks last night. I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however. Note that Los Angeles has gone 9-3 off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks have given up 3.5 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, last night's shutout performance was an anomaly for San Jose on the road this season, where it has given up 3.3 goals per game. By contrast, the Kings are allowing just 2.7 goals per game on home ice, and allow only 2.3 goals per game when at home revenging a loss against an opponent by two or more goals over the last two seasons. The Sharks are 4-1 against the Kings this season but I look for Los Angeles to get one back tonight. Take Los Angeles (10*).

04-02-21 Flames v. Oilers -139 Top 2-3 Win 100 12 h 16 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

The Oilers are in a nice bounce-back spot at home on Friday night as they look to respond following a 4-0 loss in Montreal on Tuesday. Note that Edmonton is 26-12 after giving up four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals per game in that spot. The Oilers are also 21-10 when coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in a woeful 2-9 after losing a home game by three goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing 3.4 goals per game in that situation. The Flames have of course had a miserable time scoring with any consistency this season, particularly on the road where they average just 2.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 3.5 goals per game on home ice and off a shutout loss will be eager to bounce back here at home before heading back on the road for three games in Montreal and Ottawa. Take Edmonton (10*).

04-01-21 Hurricanes -158 v. Blackhawks Top 4-3 Win 100 12 h 59 m Show

NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this one sets up for Carolina as it look to bounce back following a 2-1 loss to the Blackhawks here two nights ago. The Canes remain a solid road team this season, having gone 12-7, allowing just 2.7 goals per game in the process. Chicago is in a tough spot here, having gone a miserable 5-15 following a home win against a division opponent over the last three seasons, allowing 3.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes have allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. Carolina averages north of three goals per game on the road this season and is set up well here, noting that it averages exactly 3.0 goals per game after being held to a goal or less in its previous contest over the last three seasons, as is the case here. The Canes got a boost with the return of Victor Trocheck on Tuesday. He chipped in an assist, played more than 18 minutes and fired six shots on goal in the loss. Take Carolina (10*).

03-29-21 Jets +102 v. Flames Top 5-1 Win 102 13 h 33 m Show

NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

The Jets have been a tremendous bounce-back team all season long and after cashing with the Flames in Saturday night's virtual must-win game, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Winnipeg in Monday's finale of a three-game set here in Calgary. Winnipeg remains a winning team on the road this season, having gone 11-8, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals per game. While the Jets are a solid 9-3 when revenging a loss of any kind this season, they're even better revenging a loss where they allowed four goals or more, going 7-1, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames are a miserable 1-7 after scoring four or more goals in a game this season, outscored by 2.0 goals per game while managing just 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Calgary has allowed 3.8 goals per game when playing at home off a division win over the last three seasons. I mentioned that Saturday's game was a virtual must-win for Calgary on the heels of four straight losses. The fact that the Flames managed to win that game only leaves them in a clear letdown spot against what I would consider a superior Jets squad that will be motivated to wrap up their seven-game road trip with a winning record. Take Winnipeg (10*).

03-27-21 Jets v. Flames -125 Top 2-4 Win 100 14 h 20 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary over Winnipeg at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Flames fell short again last night, falling by a 3-2 score against the Jets - their fourth consecutive loss. Calgary did manage to score two goals in the third period which is at least a positive for them to hang its hat on entering Saturday's rematch with Winnipeg. While the Flames are down right now, I'm not about to write them off, especially here on home ice where they're still a winning team on the season and average north of three goals per game. They've also still taken 13 of the last 17 meetings with the Jets here in Calgary. With Winnipeg having taken four of six meetings this season, there's even more motivation for the Flames to get back on track on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*).

03-27-21 Panthers +100 v. Stars 4-3 Win 100 12 h 9 m Show

My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Panthers are reeling right now, fresh off three straight losses and dealing with a couple of key injuries to Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist. With that being said, I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday night as they put a disappointing start to their current road trip behind them with a convincing victory. Florida was competitive in last Sunday's 5-3 loss in Tampa (we won with the Lightning in that game) before getting stymied in consecutive low-scoring losses in Chicago. A change of scenery should be a positive thing as the Panthers head to Dallas on Saturday, where the Stars are just 7-10 on the season and in line for a letdown off a come-from-behind win over the first-place Lightning two nights ago. Note that the Panthers average a whopping 5.0 goals per game and outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Florida (10*).

03-26-21 Sharks +105 v. Coyotes Top 2-5 Loss -100 16 h 32 m Show

NHL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on San Jose over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday.

We have a pretty good feel for the Sharks right now, having been involved in three of their last six games, winning on consecutive occasions with them on the puck-line in Las Vegas before cashing a big play on the 'over' in their most recent contest at home against the Kings. Here, I'll back them again as they continue to play reasonably well and push toward a playoff spot in the West Division. Of course, it's going to be an uphill battle as San Jose currently sits seven points back of the fourth-place Blues but does have two games in hand. Tonight's opponent is another team San Jose is currently looking up at in the standings. Arizona checks in off a thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Avalanche on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Colorado elected to go with Jonas Johansson in goal for that game - he was an acquisition from the Sabres last week and has been generally awful this season. Now the Coyotes are in a tough spot having gone 3-18 following a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Off an overtime win over the last two seasons, Arizona has gone a miserable 1-9, losing those contests by an average margin of 1.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-3 revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game on average. Despite its overall losing record, San Jose has also gone a solid 9-5 after losing four or five of its last six contests this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game in that situation. The Sharks have managed to hold their own here in Glendale in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including a 1-1 split earlier this season where they won the front-half. Take San Jose (10*).

03-25-21 Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 Top 1-5 Win 100 12 h 55 m Show

NHL West Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this one sets up for the Avalanche coming off a disappointing shootout loss in Arizona two nights ago. Colorado went with newly-acquired and struggling goaltender Jonas Johansson in that game, giving Philipp Grubauer a much-deserved night off. Grubauer should be back in goal on Thursday, noting that he has allowed just three goals on the last 137 shots he has faced. The Avs are also back on home ice for this one, where they've gone 11-5 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals per game. Of course, Colorado will also be looking for revenge after suffering a 3-0 loss against the Knights here in Denver back on February 22nd. We actually won with Vegas in that spot, expecting a clear letdown from the Avs off their outdoor game victory over the Knights two days earlier. Colorado has gone a perfect 9-0 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 2.9-goal margin in those contests. The Avs are also a solid 23-9 after allowing four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Vegas averages just 2.7 goals per game after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and I don't believe it will have enough to get past the Avs in the first of this two-game set on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*).

03-25-21 Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks 0-3 Loss -123 23 h 37 m Show

My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

I'll back the Panthers as they look to snap their mini two-game skid on Thursday night in Chicago. We actually won with the Blackhawks in the front half of this two-game set as they skated to a 3-2 victory. Now Florida is set up well to respond favorably, noting it has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when on the road coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals in that situation, which has come up on 10 previous occasions. Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up a whopping 4.2 goals per game when playing on home ice following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 15-5 coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. No Sasha Barkov for the Panthers again on Thursday but they have enough depth to pick up the slack. Take Florida (10*).

03-23-21 Lightning -163 v. Stars 2-1 Win 100 9 h 54 m Show

My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Lightning on Sunday and we'll come right back with them again on Tuesday night as they head to Dallas to face the Stars for the second time in a week. The Stars simply haven't been able to regain the magic that saw them make an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final to face these same Lightning last fall. Considering they've been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing five of those, I question whether they can keep pace with the Lightning here. Note that Dallas is a miserable 1-7 when revenging a loss where its opponent scored four goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been a tremendous positive momentum play, having gone 34-10 coming off four or more straight wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (9*).

03-22-21 Hurricanes -157 v. Blue Jackets 3-0 Win 100 10 h 36 m Show

My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

We missed the mark with the Hurricanes on Saturday but probably deserved a better fate as they gave up the tying goal in the final minute of the third period and then had what appeared to be the game-winning goal called back in overtime due to the play being offside. Despite dropping the last two games against the Blue Jackets I still feel that the Hurricanes are the superior team (not exactly a stretch, I know). Each of those last two games could have easily gone either way and I'm confident we'll see the 'Canes get back in the win column on Monday night. Note that Carolina has been a solid road team this season, going 10-6. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are just 7-10 on home ice, allowing 3.2 goals per game. Carolina is 27-19 the last 46 times it has gone on the road following consecutive home losses, averaging 3.1 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Columbus averages just 1.8 goals per game when returning home following a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Carolina (9*).

03-21-21 Panthers v. Lightning -135 Top 3-5 Win 100 8 h 55 m Show

NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I'll take advantage of a rare short price to back the Lightning on Sunday afternoon as they aim to keep their winning streak intact against the rival Panthers. Florida is coming off a 2-0 bounce-back victory over the Predators yesterday but finds itself in a tough situation here. Note that the Panthers are 1-4 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. They're also 14-23 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Lightning own a stellar 44-15 record against division opponents over the last two seasons and certainly haven't forgot the 6-4 loss they suffered at the hands of the Panthers here at home on February 15th. That marked Florida's first victory here in Tampa in their last five tries though and I look for the Lightning to get the season series back to an even 2-2 with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

03-20-21 Flames v. Maple Leafs -155 0-2 Win 100 11 h 7 m Show

My selection is on Toronto over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Leafs struggles continued last night as they fell behind early and never recovered in a 4-3 loss against the Flames. I do expect Toronto to bounce back on Saturday night, however, noting that it has gone an incredible 15-4 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons. While Calgary did win last night, it is still a losing team on the road at 7-10 on the season, where it allows over three goals per game. Take Toronto (9*).

03-20-21 Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -185 Top 3-2 Loss -185 11 h 28 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

I have no problem laying the relatively steep price to back the Hurricanes on home ice against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Columbus took the first game of this two-game set in Carolina on Thursday by a 3-2 score in overtime. That puts the Jackets in a tough spot here as they're averaging just 1.9 goals per game playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. On six occasions where the Jackets have played on the road off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, they've averaged just one goal per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Carolina allows just 1.9 goals per game and outscores the opposition by 1.0 goal on average when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. Take Carolina (10*).

03-18-21 Wild v. Avalanche -143 1-5 Win 100 14 h 12 m Show

My selection is on Colorado over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

This is about as cheap of a price as you're going to see with the Avs playing at home and it has everything to do with the fact that the Wild have won five straight games. Keep in mind, those five straight wins all came at home. Now the Wild head out on the road to face what will be a revenge-minded Avs squad after Minnesota took the most recent meeting 6-2 in late February. Note that Colorado is 20-7 when revenging a loss where it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. The Avs are also 17-3 off a home win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game. The Wild are 12-24 after recording consecutive wins by 3+ goals. Take Colorado (10*).

03-13-21 Blackhawks v. Panthers -157 2-4 Win 100 11 h 44 m Show

My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Blackhawks snapped their two-game skid with a 4-2 win in Dallas on Thursday but I look for them to go back to their losing ways on Saturday as they take on the red hot Panthers. Florida is coming off an improbable comeback win in Columbus on Thursday, rallying from a 4-1 third period deficit to win the game in overtime. Now the Cats are back home where they've gone 10-2-1 this season. The Blackhawks certainly prefer to play an up-tempo style but that plays right into the hands of the Panthers, who rank fifth in the league in goals per game this season. Florida also ranks tops in the league in shots on goal per game which spells trouble for a Blackhawks team that ranks 19th in goals per game allowed and 31st in shots on goal per game allowed. Take Florida (10*).

03-13-21 Capitals v. Flyers -107 Top 5-4 Loss -107 21 h 16 m Show

NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Capitals have certainly had the Flyers number this past week but I'm willing to go back to the well with Philadelphia here as the situation sets up well for the home side. Note that the Flyers have gone a perfect 7-0 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.8 goals in that situation. They're also an exceptional 14-3 after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, averaging 3.9 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, prior to dropping its last two games against the Caps, Philadelphia had won five consecutive meetings in this series. With the Caps allowing three goals per game on the road this season, I still feel they're vulnerable and look for the Flyers to finally put one over on them on Saturday night. Take Philadelphia (10*).

03-11-21 Capitals v. Flyers -104 5-3 Loss -104 22 h 48 m Show

My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Flyers busted out of their slump with a 5-4 victory over the Sabres on Tuesday and now I look for them to keep it rolling as they host the Capitals on Thursday. Note that the Caps defeated the Flyers by a 3-1 score this past Sunday, which actually serves Philadelphia well here. The Flyers have given up just two goals per game when at home revenging a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. Likewise, they've allowed just 2.3 goals per game after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. Washington has had a tendency to let down its guard, allowing 3.5 goals per game off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*).

03-11-21 Jets v. Maple Leafs -177 3-4 Win 100 22 h 44 m Show

My selection is on Toronto over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Leafs were rolling at this time last week, riding a four-game winning streak despite missing a number of key cogs due to injury. Since then, they've dropped three games in a row, including Tuesday's 4-3 setback against the Jets in the first of a three-game set here in Toronto. I look for the Leafs to respond favorably on Thursday as they look to get back on the winning side of the ledger. Note that they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of one goal when revenging a loss against an opponent this season. They've also outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals when playing on home ice after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Winnipeg has allowed a whopping 4.2 goals per game after posting a division win on the road over the last two seasons. Take Toronto (10*).

03-10-21 Golden Knights -115 v. Wild Top 3-4 Loss -115 12 h 8 m Show

NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Wild in the front half of this two-game set on Monday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Knights on Wednesday. Monday's loss snapped Vegas' six-game winning streak but it remains 6-3 on the road this season where it allows only 1.9 goals per game. Note that the Knights are allowing just 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, the Knights have gone 9-1, outscoring opponents by a wide 1.7-goal margin on average. On the flip side, the Wild have given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off a home win by two goal so more over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. Take Vegas (10*).

03-09-21 Panthers -127 v. Blue Jackets Top 4-2 Win 100 13 h 35 m Show

NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Panthers delivered a poor performance on Sunday as they dropped a 4-2 decision in Carolina. That was just their first loss in their last three games, however, and they still own an impressive 15-5-4 overall record this season. While the Blue Jackets have generally owned this series, going 24-11 in the last 35 meetings, there's no question the Panthers are a better team this year than we've seen in years' past. The Jackets check in having won just twice in their last eight games. Note that Columbus has averaged only 2.3 goals per game when playing at home after winning two of its last three contests, as is the case here. Meanwhile, we can anticipate a solid offensive showing from the Panthers here as they've averaged a whopping 4.4 goals per game when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, going a perfect 5-0 in that situation. The Blue Jackets are a nice negative momentum fade here having gone 4-11 when coming off a loss in a division game over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. Take Florida (10*).

03-08-21 Canadiens -147 v. Canucks Top 1-2 Loss -147 12 h 12 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

On paper, the case could be made that both of these teams are 'due' for a letdown on Monday night with the Canadiens coming off a 7-1 victory over Winnipeg and Vancouver fresh off consecutive victories over Toronto. As the line certainly appears to indicate, I believe the Habs are in better position to steady their course and avoid that letdown on Monday. A few quotes from Canucks players lead me to believe they'll be hard-pressed to get back to the level they played at in that two-game sweep of the Leafs. "It's been a tough go, and for our team to keep battling and stick to the process tonight, I think it's huge for our group and give us a lot of confidence," Brock Boeser said. And this from J.T. Miller, "It feels pretty awesome and we know it's in there," he said. "It means a lot to us. We take a lot of pride in beating a team like that at home twice when we really need wins. We talked a lot over the last three weeks or so about playing well but not getting the results. We've shown that we can beat anybody in the league, and we still believe that, even though the record wouldn't necessarily show it. But it feels pretty awesome." While those quotes may be encouraging to some, I believe they might indicate Vancouver is a little high on its horse off those victories, especially given it still has just 11 wins in 28 games this season. Note that Vancouver averages just 2.8 goals per game when coming off a win over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.2 goals per game on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Montreal seems to get a lift heading out on the road following a homestand, having averaged 3.3 goals per game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals when playing on the road after two consecutive home games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Montreal (10*).

03-07-21 Lightning -177 v. Blackhawks Top 6-3 Win 100 7 h 37 m Show

NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 2:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Lightning haven't been at their best in their last couple of games against the Blackhawks, first needing to rally from a 2-0 third period deficit to secure a 3-2 overtime win on Thursday before dropping a 4-3 shootout decision on Friday. I do look for them to bring their 'A' game on Sunday as they look to come away with five of a possible six points in this three-game set in Chicago. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed just 2.1 goals per game when revenging a loss on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blackhawks haven't fared particularly well when coming off a close victory in recent years, allowing an average of 4.1 goals after a one-goal win over the last three seasons. In general, the Lightning have been a solid bet when coming off a loss of any sort on the road over the last three seasons, going 24-7 in their next game while averaging over four goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

03-06-21 Blue Jackets v. Stars -128 Top 0-5 Win 100 23 h 34 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas over Columbus at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

I'll back the Stars on Saturday night as they look to right the ship and shake out of a miserable run in a rematch with the Blue Jackets. Columbus skated to a 3-2 victory in the first of this two-game set on Thursday. That actually puts Dallas in a solid situation here, noting that it has allowed just 2.1 goals on average when revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Also note that Columbus is averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a road victory over the last two seasons. The Stars have gone a solid 10-4 under the guidance of head coach Rick Bowness when playing with double-revenge against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by a margin of 1.1 goals. Take Dallas (10*).

03-05-21 Wild -135 v. Coyotes Top 5-1 Win 100 14 h 18 m Show

NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

The Wild are coming off back-to-back losses in Las Vegas earlier this week - not all that surprising as they were certainly in for some regression off six straight victories and the Golden Knights offered a significant test. Here, I look for Minnesota to bounce back as it heads to Glendale to face the Coyotes. Note that Minnesota has gone 8-1 off a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 goals. Meanwhile, Arizona has been dreadful off a road win against a division opponent (it enters this game off a 3-2 victory in Los Angeles two nights ago), going 1-8 in that situation over the last three seasons, losing those games by an average margin of 2.1 goals. The last five times the Coyotes have returned home following a one-goal road win they've gone winless and have allowed a whopping five goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 goals. Take Minnesota (10*).

03-04-21 Flyers v. Penguins +112 Top 4-3 Loss -100 11 h 43 m Show

NHL Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Flyers will likely be a popular play on Thursday night as bettors race to the window to fade the Sidney Crosby-less Penguins coming off Tuesday's 5-2 blowout win in the opener of this three-game set in Pittsburgh. I'll go the other way, however, as the Pens have become accustomed to playing (and succeeding) without Crosby over the years and who's to argue with a dominant 8-1 home record this season? Many had the Flyers pegged as a Stanley Cup contender at the outset of the season and while there's still plenty of time for that to play out, the fact is they've been a fairly large disappointment, barely hanging on to the fourth and final playoff spot in the East Division. The Pens are the team nipping at their heels and here I look for them to stake claim to that position. Note that Philadelphia has been a good negative momentum fade in recent years, allowing a whopping 4.4 goals per game on 14 occasions where they were off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. They also have a tendency to get weaker the more they play on the road, having allowed an average of 4.6 goals per game off two consecutive games played away from home over the last two seasons. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

03-02-21 Canucks v. Jets -129 Top 2-5 Win 100 13 h 27 m Show

NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Canucks jumped out in front early in last night's game here in Winnipeg and were never really tested from there in an eventual 4-0 victory. That looked an awful lot like a 'throwaway' game for the Jets after they dug themselves that 3-0 first period hole as they offered little push back from there. I certainly expect Winnipeg to respond with a tremendous effort on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, Winnipeg had been playing well entering last night's contest, having won four straight and eight of its last 11 games overall. This has been a tight series with each team taking two games in four meetings so far this season. Look for the Jets to gain the upper hand tonight. Take Winnipeg (10*).

03-01-21 Maple Leafs v. Oilers +102 3-0 Loss -100 12 h 29 m Show

My selection is on Edmonton over Toronto at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Oilers on Monday night after suffering a 4-0 loss against the Leafs on Saturday. In recent years, a loss like Saturday's may have sent the Oilers into a tailspin but they've looked like a different team this year. Note that Edmonton is 20-10 when revenging a loss where they scored a goal or less as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals. The Oilers are also 23-11 after allowing four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Take Edmonton (10*).

02-27-21 Blue Jackets +110 v. Predators Top 1-2 Loss -100 8 h 44 m Show

NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Columbus over Nashville at 3:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Blue Jackets continue to limp along, coming off three consecutive losses to wrap up a disappointing 1-3 homestand. That stretch started with a win over these same Predators - a rare occurrence in a series Nashville has dominated. With that being said, I like the way this situation sets up for the Jackets on Saturday. Note that Nashville is just 13-22 after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons, outscored by a goal per game on average in that situation. The Preds are also a miserable 3-10 after playing their last three games on the road, as is the case here, outscored by a wide 1.5-goal margin on average. We have seen Columbus bounce back from bad losses with some consistency under head coach John Tortorella, going 35-26 after losing by two goals or more in their last game. Take Columbus (10*).

02-26-21 Avalanche -169 v. Coyotes 3-2 Win 100 14 h 15 m Show

My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday.

We missed the mark with the Avalanche two nights ago as they got blown out by the Wild, on home ice no less. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here, however, as they face a familiar foe in the Coyotes. Note that Colorado has gone 7-3 against Arizona over the last three seasons and breezed past the 'Yotes in last year's playoffs, capped off by consecutive 7-1 victories to close out the series. Colorado is 12-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, averaging just shy of four goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are a miserable 3-15 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Take Colorado (10*).

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