This is a 10* on DERN

Mackenzie Dern is the favorite here and for good reason. The 15th ranked contender in the Women’s Strawweight division is eight years younger and carries an 8-1 record. Her not ranked opponent, Rando Markos, is just 10-8-1 in her pro career. Dern began her career with seven consecutive victories, four of them coming via submission. Then she ran into Amanda Ribas last October and was beaten for the 1st time - via decision. But back in May, Dern returned to her submission ways using a kneebar to stop Hannah Cifers in the 1st round. Ironically, it is now Markos finding herself coming off a loss to Ribas. She lost to her back in March on a unanimous decision. One thing that sticks about Markos is how few finishes she has in her pro career. The number is just four and only one of those has been since 2014. Markos will look to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against the superior striker Dern.  Play on Mackenzie Dern

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This is an 8* on FABINSKI

These two middleweights are both coming off victories their last time out. Fabinski’s was more recent as he took a unanimous decision over Darren Stewart back in March to move to 15-3. Muniz is on a five-fight win streak, but hasn’t fought since November, which was his UFC debut. So the five consecutive victories don’t really carry much water. Though he’s fought more recently, Fabinski has just five fights total under his belt the last four years due to injuries. But he also has just one loss since 2014 as he’s gone 8-1 his last nine. Most of those wins have been by decision, but that speaks to the style of fighter than Fabinski is. He’s a grind it out type guy, content to win via the judges. He has no problem simply staying ahead on points and an ability to get this fight to the mat should obviously work in his favor. Muniz has a tendency to tire late, so look for Fabinski to pour it on in the final round - if it gets there. Play on FABINSKI

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8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

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This is a 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

This isn’t the heavyweight battle everyone’s coming to see Saturday at UFC 252 (that would be the title fight of Miocic vs. Cormier), but it’s our favorite call of the year inside the Octagon. Rozenstruik enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign by finishing Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski & Alistair Overeem, all by KO, two of which came in Round 1. The Overeem knockout came with just four seconds left in a fight Rozenstruik may have otherwise lost. Unfortunately, “lady luck” then caught up with him in a 20 second KO defeat to Francis Ngannou back in May. Still, Rozenstruik has proven all he needs is “one punch” and we believe one punch is all he’ll need to dispatch former champ Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos has found a way to remain relevant within the division but is coming off back to back losses to top contenders. One of them was a Rd 1 KO at the hands of Ngannou. Prior to experiencing that same fate (see above) Rozenstruik was a perfect 10-0 in his career, all but one win coming via knockout. Dos Santos is just 6-6 his L12 fights and his best days are clearly behind him. Even worse is that he’s been TKO’d in the last five losses. This is Rozenstruik’s coming out party and another KO finish is what we’re expecting here. 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

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This is an 8* on STEWART

Stewart is a former light heavyweight who has won his last two UFC fights. Early on during the pandemic, he took a “one-off” booking (March 20th) for the Cage Warriors promotion and suffered a somewhat shocking loss, via decision, to Bartosz Fabinski. After beating an elite wrestler like Deron Winn, the Fabinski loss was definitely a “head-scratcher” for Stewart. But back in the “Octagon,” we should see him get back to his winning ways. Stewart has been a much more patient fighter as a middleweight and that was the key to his back to back victories in the latter half of last year. Pitolo has some knockout power, but that’s about it and he’s a horrible defensive fighter. He has only two UFC fights under his belt, the first being a loss to Callan Potter. He rallied to knockout Charles Byrd two months ago, but this is a pretty quick turnaround for Pitoli to face a vastly superior fighter. Stewart grinding out another decision victory is the most likely outcome here, but do not be surprised if he finishes Pitolo early. Play on STEWART

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This is a 10* on TUCKER

Big edge for Tucker here as Jaynes is facing a quick turnaround and a weight cut down to 145 pounds. Jaynes just made his UFC debut in June, knocking out Frank Camacho, but that fight was at lightweight (155 pounds). Jaynes has actually fought as heavy as 170 lbs (welterweight) previously, so cutting weight is nothing new. But fighting this light is and Jaynes has been pretty forthright in letting everyone know he wished this fight was taking place a couple of weeks later. Jaynes was a +250 underdog on the money line when he knocked out Camacho in 41 seconds. A second straight upset seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Tucker hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight saw him bounce back from his only career defeat (11-1) when he choked out Seung Woo Choi. Tucker also had a 37-23 edge in significant strikes, a nice sign after the infamous beating he took at the hands of Rick Glenn at UFC 215. The edge goes to Tucker Saturday. Play on TUCKER

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This is a 10* on OVER

We look for this fight to go longer than expected and possibly all the way to the cards. Vicente Luque aka “The Silent Assassin” has won seven of his last eight fights. Four of the last five have hit the third round including each of the previous three. May’s win over Niko Price saw the doctor step in and call the fight with just over one minute remaining. Before that, Luque’s two previous fights both went to decision. A win here would be the biggest of Brown’s career. It would also be a third straight win overall. Interestingly, none of his nine UFC fights have ended in Round 1. All we’re looking for here is to get past the midpoint of Rd 2 and that’s something that seems likely. 10* on OVER

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This is a 7* on OLIVEIRA

These two Welterweights come to “Fight Island” at the crossroads of their respective careers. Oliveira had a poor 2019 by losing a couple decisions. “Cowboy” had actually lost three straight fights when he stepped back into the Octagon in March. But he won a split decision over Max Smith, seemingly giving him new life. The win over Smith improved his career record to 21-8-1, so take away that three-fight losing streak and it’s been a solid run. Sobotta has been far more embattled as he’s never really proven himself on this kind of stage. He was signed by the UFC mainly because he’s German and that was a country the company wanted to expand into. After turning in a decent effort in a loss to Leon Edwards in March of ‘18, Sobotta has been inactive due to injuries. Coming into this fight off a two-plus year layoff is difficult and a 17-6-1 career record against not that strong of competition is hardly inspiring either. We don’t see Sobotta as being strong enough to stay in this thing for 15 minutes. 7* on Oliveira

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This is an 8* on TRINALDO

We’re going with Trinaldo in this fight as it comes down to a massive edge in experience inside the Octagon compared to his opponent. Herbert is making his UFC debut Saturday night. Trinaldo has 22 fights for UFC. He’s coming off a win in March against Makdessi, which was the second straight victory for the Brazillian. Both were by decision by Trinaldo can certainly finish. He’s won 13 of his fights by either KO/TKO or submission. Meanwhile, he’s never been knocked out in his career and only three times has he ever submitted. Herbert last fought in October so there could be some “rust,” hardly an ideal scenario to be making your UFC debut. The likely result here is Trinaldo by decision but he very well could end the fight early. Either way, look for him to get his hand raised on “Fight Island” this Saturday. 8* on TRINALDO

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This is a a 10* on GASTELLUM

This is a middleweight bout (185 pounds) scheduled for this Saturday’s Fight Night 175 card in Abu Dhabi. It’s the semi-main (event), so it’s a big deal for both fighters, both of whom are coming off losses. Gastellum was actually 0-2 in 2019, losing a “Fight of the Year” caliber bout to current MW Champ Adesanya followed by a loss to Darren Till at UFC 244 in November. Both fights were decided by the judges with the Till fight resulting in a split verdict. Hermansson saw a four-fight win streak come to an end last September when he was TKO’d in the second round by Jared Cannonier. He was supposed to fight former 185 pound titleholder Chris Weidman on May 2nd, but that was scrapped due to COVID-19. This will mark the first time in his career that Gastellum comes in on a losing streak, so look for him to come out as the more aggressive fighter. He’s better on the ground than Hermansson. He’s also never been KO’d in his career, an impressive line on the resume. The back to back losses are of little concern considering the caliber of opponents that he was facing. 10* on GASTELLUM

This is an 8* on DIAKIESE

A three-round bout at lightweight (155 pounds) goes down at UFC Fight Night 175 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. We’re backing the favorite Diakiese, who comes in with a 14-3 record after defeating Lando Vannata last September by unanimous decision. Something that is crystal clear (upon review of the statistics) is that Diakiese’s takedown game is far better than Fiziev’s. Diakiese averages roughly 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes while Fiziev averages less than a single takedown (0.91) per fight. Fiziev is 7-1 after defeating Alex White last September, also a unanimous decision. But his issue remains taking far too much punishment. We believe Diakiese is going to be able to take Fiziev down with regularity here in this fight and that’s likely enough to earn him a victory on the scorecards. 8* on DIAKIESE

This is a 10* on GORDON

The UFC’s run at “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi continues with Fight Night 172 on Wednesday, July 15th. The entire fight card can be viewed on ESPN+ with this particular matchup taking place on the “main show.” It’s a featherweight bout (145 lbs), scheduled for three rounds, between Jared Gordon (15-4-1) and Chris Fishgold (18-3-1). Our money is on the former as despite a 3-3 record in his previous six fights, Gordon is someone known for landing lots of strikes. While he was KO’d in his last fight (November 2019 by Charles Oliveira), Fishgold is a far better matchup here for Gordon, who will have the striking advantage and has adequate takedown defense. Fishgold has dropped two of three fights since coming to the UFC and it’s thought his future with the promotion will be in jeopardy with yet another loss. Unlike Gordon, Fishgold prefers to take the fight to the ground. Unfortunately for him, we don’t see that happening here. The fact Fishgold has been stopped twice doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence on his end. 10* on GORDON

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This is an 8* on SANTOS

UFC 251 will be the first of four consecutive fight cards to emanate from “Fight Island” (in Abu Dhabi) in the month of July. For the pay per view event, we’ve decided to focus on an undercard bout that takes place at 155 pounds (lightweight). You will actually be able to watch this fight on ESPN as it is part of the prelims. It puts the undefeated Russian (Bogatov) against the veteran Santos. Despite the former’s perfect 10-0 career mark, he checks in as the decided underdog for this fight. That’s not all that surprising seeing as this will be his UFC debut and thus this fight is a tremendous step up in class from what Bogatov has dealt with in the past. Meanwhile this will be Santos’ 8th UFC fight and so far he’s gone 6-0-1. In fact, going back to 2010, Santos owns a 12-0-1 record in all fights with seven of the wins coming by either submission or knockout. Santos is a pure striker and will look to keep this fight standing while Bogatov is more of a submission expert and will want to get things to the ground. We believe Santos will avoid getting taken down. In his last fight, he outstruck his opponent 12-2 and ended it in only 2:17. It probably won’t be that quick this time around and he may not even be able to finish Bogatov. But look for Santos to get his hand raised.  8* on SANTOS

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This is an 8* on HARRIS

This will be an emotional fight for Harris, who is returning to the Octagon for the 1st time since his stepdaughter tragically passed away last November. That situation (rightfully) resulted in Harris pulling out of a scheduled bout with Overeem on Deember 7th. Overeem still fought that day and looked to be on his way to victory before getting KO'd with four seconds to go. Overeem has now lost three of his previous five fights. Meanwhile, Harris is unbeaten over his last four fights and has been incredibly impressive in the last two, winning Performance of the Night bonuses both times. Considering the emotion involved, we can't help but side with Harris, whose two wins last year both came by first round knockout. 

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This is an 8* on Jotko

This middleweight bout pits two fighters that were once on three-fight losing streaks, but have since bounced back with two straight wins. Eryk Anders stopped Vinicius Moreira last June to improve to 13-4 in his MMA career and he's KO'd 2/3 of his UFC opposition. Krzysztof Jotko may not posses the "stopping power" of his opponent (65% of wins have come via decision), but he's 21-4 overall and looked impressive in defeating Alen Amedovski and Marc-Andre Barriault in 2019. This is a fighter that went 19-1 over his first 20 pro fights. The keys for Jotko are experience and ground game. Anders simply has never demonstrated any kind of comfort level on the ground. Don't be surprised if that's where the majority of this fight takes place. That favors Jotko, who gets our nod of approval.

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This is a 6* on Yadong

Two top ranked featherweights meet here with Song Yadong (15-1-1) meeting Marlon Vera (15-5-1). Yadong has yet to taste defeat since coming to the UFC (4-0-1 record) while Vera is on a five-fight win streak himself. But prior to that win streak, Vera had been just a .500 fighter inside the Octagon with a 4-4 WL record. Yadong had to settle for a draw against Cody Stamann back in December, which ended his own seven fight win streak. Five of those saw him finish the opposition. Three of those five finishes came in the first round! Yadong is an exciting fighter that can't be ignored right now. He's our call to get his hand raised Saturday.

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