Our selection is on Tofiq Musayev to defeat Myktybek Oralbai on Saturday at 4:05pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Tofiq Musayev is the underdog but will definitely be in this fight and will have a great chance at winning.

He's a knockout machine who has 18 wins by KO out of his 22 career fights.

That's going to get Oralbai in trouble who hasn't seen someone with this ability yet.

Myktybek Oralbai is definitely the more well rounded fighter and has actually never lost by knockout or submission.

But, we think that this is a fight that it could happen with Oralbai feeling down after a split decision loss.

We're on Musayev tonight.

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Our selection is on Cody Garbrandt to defeat Raoni Barcelos on Saturday at 11:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Cody Garbrandt is a legend in the sport of Mixed Martial Arts. He's known to have lightning fast hands.

'No Love' lost his last fight. But, that was against Deiveson Figueiredo, another legend.

Garbrandt is the fresher fighter having had a year of recovery time to prepare for this fight.

Barcelos is the favorite. But, he's also got a number of losses on his record.

The Brazilian is actually the older fighter by four years.

We're on Cody to pull off the upset tonight.

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Our selection is on Jose Aldo to defeat Aiemann Zahabi on Saturday at 11:05pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Jose Aldo had a bit of a problem weighing in on Friday which has moved this fight up a weight class.

This problem has made the line go in the favor of Zahabi more than it has been all week long.

Jose Aldo is still one of the top fighters in the MMA and his resume speaks for itself.

Zahabi is on a five fight win streak which is really impressive.

The Canadian fighter has never fought a former or current champion though. This will be a big test for him.

We're on the Brazilian favorite.

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Our selection is on Matt Schnell to defeat Jimmy Flick on Saturday at 8:45pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Matt Schnell is on a losing streak but has been fighting really good fighters.

He's capable of winning by knockout and submitting someone.

Jimmy Flick has never knocked someone out in his career -- has been knocked out six times.

He's submitted people 15 times though and has never been submitted.

Each round starts standing up and Schnell has better striking.

If this fight goes to the ground, Schnell will be able to keep up.

We think Schnell wins by Decision on Saturday.

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Our selection is on Yair Rodriguez to defeat Patricio Pitbull on Saturday at 6:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Yair Rodriguez is a fighter that gets overlooked sometimes in the Featherweight Division.

El Pantera has some of the best kicks in all of mixed martial arts and they should flying today.

He's off back-to-back losses, but those were tough fights. This one will be easier.

Patricio Pittbull will make his UFC debut today. He's lost two of his L3 fights in Bellator and RIZIN.

We think that the UFC experience will help El Pantera and he will be too talented for the newly addition to the roster.

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We like the Sean Brady vs Leon Edwards fight to finish OVER the total on Saturday night for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Sean Brady is one of the top contenders in this division. A win here might get him a title shot.

Brady has gone the distance though in nine of his 17 professional wins. Has never lost a decision before.

Leon Edwards hasn't fought since losing the belt to Belal Muhammed. He's always in long fights, going to a decision 14 times in 24 fights.

We also have to mention when Edwards first won the belt he faced Usman and knocked him out with less than a minute to go.

Two really good fighters here. We see it going to the judges score cards.

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We like Justin Gaethje to defeat Rafael Fiziev on Saturday at 10:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Justin Gaethje has been near the top of the Lightweight Division for years now and he's always proved himself to be one of the toughest.

He's off a loss to Hollaway, but won back-to-back fights before that -- which includes a win against Fiziev.

Gaethje has the 'never give up' mentality and we like that when it comes to picking winners.

Rafael Fiziev is a scary fighter to pick against. But, he's off back-to-back losses now, one against Gaethje and one against Gamrot.

He got injured during that fight against Gamrot and hasn't seen the octagon since then in 2023.

That's a whole year off and we think that Gaethje's activity makes him more threatning.

We're on the underdog today.

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We like Ramazonbek Temirov to defeat Charles Johnson on Saturday at 7:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Ramazonbek Temirov is from Karshi, Uzbekistan. A place more known for wrestling has produced a top power striker at 125lbs.

Temirov is a knockout machine and has won five fights in a row by KO in the opening round.

He's know won 10 straight fights and hasn't lost since early 2021.

Charles Johnson has a couple of good wins over his career, but is definitely a streaker fighter.

Johnson has lost three of his last seven fights, and is 12-9-1 over his L32 pro fights. (This includes Boxing.)

We're on the Uzbek fighter tonight.

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6* Jairzinho Rozenstruik (BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT)

This should be an explosive match. Tai Tuivasa is clearly a dangerous man, but he's the slower of these two beasts and he has much less gas in the tank than Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik will be able to survive the first few minutes of this fight, and after that he'll be able to control it completely. Tuivasa has lost four in a row and has zero confidence at this point. They're exactly the same height and weight, yet Rozenstruik has a three-inch reach advantage. Tuivasa has poor defense as well, getting hit 5.05 times every 60 seconds, compared to just 2.78 strikes allowed by Rozenstruik. This line could or should in fact be larger in our opinion, so lay the price with confidence on Rozenstruik!

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10* Belal Muhammad (TOP PLAY)

This is a rematch between the two, after Belal Muhammad took a fight on short notice three years ago. Muhammad looks for revenge here, and note that he's 5-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws. Muhammad has come a long way in the last three years as well and is completely rounded in every facet. Muhammad will almost assuredly be looking to take this one to the ground whenever possible, as this is one area we feel he for sure has an advantage. Edwards has been on top for a while here, but we're expecting Muhammad to be unorthodox with his approach here and to note give the champ much to work with; fantastic overall value play here on Belal Muhammad!

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10* Bill Algeo (UFC FIGHT OF MONTH)

Two exciting featherweights collide here with Doo Ho Choi entering at 14-4-1, and Bill Algeo entering at 18-8. Choi is 3-3-1 during his time in the UFC, and is now off three straight losses. He hasn't won since 2016. Alego is 5-4 in the UFC since 2020. He's 4-2 in his last six, and eager to bounce back here after a KO loss to Kyle Nelson last time out. Choi has a 70 inch reach, and Algeo has a 73 inch reach. Choi lacks the power and reach here, and we're expecting a decisive win; lay the price, the play is Algeo!

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10* Timothy Cuamba (PLAY OF MONTH)

This goes on before the headliner. Timothy Cuamba and Lucas Almeida have a featheweight match here and everything points to Cuamba coming out on top in our opinion. Almeida is 14-3, but he's off back-to-back devastating losses, most recently to Andre Fill. Cuamba is 8-2 and is off a split-decision loss to Bolaji Oki. Both are similar, but now moving in opposite directions. Cuamba's striking is a bit better, and that's going to be the difference here in the end for us; lay the price, the play is indeed on Timoty Cuamba!

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10* Jamahal Hill (UFC GOM)

With a line like this, the oddsmakers believe, or at least are trying to lead us to believe, that Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereiara are evenly matched, and really they are. It would not be difficult at all to write a convincing argument for either fighter to win, but the upside here for Hill to grab the light heavyweight title is the best overall option in our opinion. Pereirara is the current champ after beating Jiri Prochazka, but Hill is the former champ, who had to vacate the belt due to injury. Hill though enters back at the top on top form having won four straight fights. He wants the title back that he never even lost. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Hill and we think by hook or by crook, the ref will be raising the slight dogs hand at the end of the fight; the play is indeed on Jamahal Hill!

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6* Andre Muniz (5* KNOCK-OUT)

I think that Andre Muniz should in fact be a much bigger favorite in this favorable matchup. This is a big fight for each fighter, but more so for Muniz, who will earn a fight with a Top 10 opponent with a win today. Muniz is currently on a nine fight win streak. Brendan Allen has won thre in a row. Allen's striking has improved in the UFC, but he doesn't have the power to stand with Muniz. And Muniz is a bit better on the ground as well. Look for Muniz to get his hands on Allen eventually; lay the price, the play is Muniz!

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10* Andrade (UFC GOY)

I don't expect this one to go the distance in this five round fight, as I think this is a difficult matchup for Blanchfield. Andrade is the former women's strawweight champion. She is fighting at 12, which is what she fought at in a win over Lauren Murphy just last month. She's now won three in a row, I see that momentum carrying over here in this favorable matchup. Blanchfield is 10-1 in her MMA career. She's 4-0 in the UFC and off a win over Molly McCann. She's a grappling specialist. Andrade's only defeats in the last six years though have come against the best of the best in Shevchenko, Zhang Weili, and Rose Namajunas (which was a razor-close split decision). Look for experience to be the difference-maker in this one; the play is Jessica Andrade!

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10* OVER (UFC TOY)

Two gritty, tough fighters. I don't see this one ending any time soon. If one of these two fighters gets a "KO" or submission, it'll be similar to what we saw with Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman, right near the end of the fight. Otherwise, the skill and experience each brings to the table is unmatched. Keeping this one simple, as I believe these key factors will indeed see this match go the distance; the play is the "over!"

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6* Spivak (SPECIAL)

Lewis is ranked No. 7 in the heavyweight division despite losing his last two fights. Spivak is now moving the opposite direction, as he's won five of his last six fights, moving his way up to No. 12. This is a "must win" for Lewis, but this is a huge fight for Spivak, which will give him the credibility he would need to move closer to a title shot. Lewis is just in the wrong place at the wrong time here, and I actually feel this line could easily be much higher. Lewis has been exposed after losses to Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich. Spivak is undervalued here after an impressive second-round TKO win over Augusto Sakai last time out at UFC Vegas 59; lay the price, the play is Spivak!

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6* Doo Ho Choi (SPECIAL)

Doo-Ho Choi is an exciting featherweight that hasn't fought in the promotion since 2019. This is a make or break fight for the once up and coming fighter, who has lost his last three fights. Here's the perfect target to get back on track against. Kyle Nelson, who has lost his last two fights. Doo-Ho Choi has the skills to bounce back. Although Nelson has fought more recently, I still give the nod to Choi here. Lay the price with confidence on the "better" fighter; the play is Doo Ho Choi!

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This is a 10* on Oliveira

Charles Oliveira (31-8) will step inside the cage to defend his UFC Lightweight Title against Dustin Poirier (28-6) Saturday at UFC 269. Oliveira is the underdog to a fighter who has beaten Connor McGregor twice. But we think the champ is being underrated. His last loss was in 2017. Since that last loss, Oliveira has rattled off nine consecutive victories, eight of them coming by stoppage. No fighter in UFC history has more wins by submission! Oliveira is known for starting fast and he will try to get this fight to the ground ASAP. Poirier was taken down a total of 11 times in fights vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov and Dan Hooker. The Khabib fight was obviously a loss. We think this one will be as well. Play on OLIVEIRA

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This is a 6* on ARCE

Julio Arce is dropping down to bantamweight for this fight against Andre Ewell. While Arce did lose two of his previous three fights, both losses were by split decision. He’s 8-2 in his last 10 fights with five wins coming by submission or KO. Arce is an exciting fighter with a far more diverse skill set than tonight’s opposition. Ewell is 3-3 in his last six fights and has been stopped twice. He was also beaten by decision against Chris Guttierez earlier in 2021. Arce coming off a 20-month layoff is a bit of a concern, however he also is going to have the edge in size and strength based on him dropping down a weight class. We’re taking Arce. Play on ARCE

This is a 10* on CHANDLER

Chandler and Oliveira fight for the vacant UFC Lightweight Title in the main event of UFC 262 Saturday night. While this is only his second fight in the UFC, Chandler is no stranger to success - or championships - having dominated this weight class over in Bellator for such a long time. He’s 22-5 overall in his MMA career and won six of the last seven. The last three wins have all been first round knockouts. The most recent was his first ever UFC fight, against Dan Hooker in January. Expect Chandler’s striking to give Oliveira all sorts of problems. Oliveira simply has not faced many strikers the caliber of Chandler, even though he himself has 30 career victories and is a veteran of the game. He’s only an eight-fight win streak, but that comes to an end Saturday as Chandler. Play on CHANDLER

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This is an 8* on SCHNELL

We like Schnell to win this battle of bantamweights with Bontorin. This is on the main card, third from the top. Schnell is off probably his most impressive win to date, a decision against Tyson Nam in January. Schnell has now won five of his previous six fights to move to 15-5 overall and 5-3 in the UFC. Bontorin, meanwhile, is coming off two straight losses. He was knocked out in the first round by Kai Kara France in March and short of getting in a “lucky punch,” we don’t see a path to victory for the underdog in this fight. As the years have rolled on, Schnell has shored up his defense and isn’t as susceptible to the sudden KO. It’s been nearly two years since Bontorin last tasted victory. The drought continues Saturday. Play on SCHNELL

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This is a 7* on SHEVCHENKO

This is our one pick from the prelims as Shevchenko should win the battle of women’s flyweights. While not as talented as her younger sister, Shevchenko is 9-2 and has never been stopped. As for Andrea Lee, she’s dropped three consecutive decisions to fall to 11-5 overall. Lee last fought in September when she fell via unanimous verdict to Roxanne Modafferi. Her last win came almost two years ago. Shevchenko beat Ariane Lipski by TKO in November, a solid bounce back performance after suffering her second career loss. She has the edge in striking in this matchup and that should ultimately prove to be the difference. Play on SHEVCHENKO

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This is a 10* on NGANNOU

There’s been a fair amount of debate over whether or not Stipe Miocic, the current UFC Heavyweight Champion, is the greatest HW of all-time. The oddsmakers don’t seem to be on board as Miocic is the underdog for this title fight against Francis Ngannou at UFC 260. Miocic has a decision victory over Ngannou back in 2018. Since that time the champ has lost and regained his title in a trilogy of fights with Daniel Cormier. That trilogy took basically three years to complete. Ngannou has been no more active since losing the first time to Miocic. He lost again in his next fight (to Derrick Lewis) but then stormed back to win four in a row, positioning himself as the new #1 contender. Ngannou’s striking is as good as anyone in the promotion, let alone the division. He can end this fight at any time with one punch. None of his last four fights have gone longer than 71 seconds. The key is whether or not he’s improved enough defensively to thwart Miocic’s takedown ability. We’ll take a leap of faith that he has and that Miocic’s wrestling isn’t as strong as it was in 2018. Play on NGANNOU

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This is a 10* on CRUZ

This is the final fight of the prelims on ESPN with Casey Kenney (16-2-1, 5-1 UFC) taking on Dominick Cruz (22-3, 5-2 UFC) in a bantamweight matchup. Of course, both fighters probably have a vested interest in tonight’s title fight. Especially Cruz given that he fought for the 135 lb title last year against then-champ Henry Cejudo. Cruz has been the champion of this division before, but terrible luck with injuries have really set him back. He’s lost his last two fights, but before losing to Cejudo he had not fought since 2016. Kenney is on a three-fight win streak and 9-1 his L10 overall. But he has not demonstrated much finishing ability as only two of those last nine victories have come by means other than a decision. We think it’s a mistake to write off the former champ Cruz in this spot and this is a great value on a fighter that was once 22-1. Kenney has not beaten a fighter the caliber of Cruz in his career. Play on CRUZ

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This is a 10* on OVER

This is a rematch from 2014 when Dariush was able to record a unanimous decision victory over Ferreira. Ferreira lost his next fight, a 1st round knockout at the hands of Dustin Poirier (doesn’t seem so bad now, does it?), but has gone undefeated since and is on a six-fight win streak coming into this rematch. He’s now 17-2 in his career. Dariush is 19-4-1 and on a five-fight win streak. He won by spinning backfist last August against Scott Holtzman and it didn’t even take him a full round to do so. Dariush’s last four wins have all come in the first or second round. Ferreira, on the other hand, has had three of his six straight wins go to decision. We see this one going along the lines of the first fight, i.e. leaving it in the hands of the judges. Dariush would prefer to keep this fight standing and he possesses the necessary takedown defense to keep it that way. He’s also a bit stronger now compared to six years ago, so he won’t get overwhelmed in the grappling department. Play on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

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This is a 6* on MCGREGOR

So this line has shot up, which was probably to be expected, so we’re glad to have gotten down on McGregor early. But the fact he is a very large favorite now doesn’t make McGregor any less likely to win. It only confirms our belief in this fight that he is likely to make short work of an opponent he easily defeated the first time around, needing only 1:46 to take care of business. Maybe this one goes longer, but the result will remain the same and that’s McGregor getting his hand raised. In his only fight of 2020, he won in just 40 seconds against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, so there is no reason to believe there’s any sort of decline. For all the talk about Poirier being “better” this time around, he’s clearly still not on McGregor’s level. Play on MCGREGOR

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This is a 10* on CALDERWOOD

Two Women’s Flyweights go at it here with #7 Joanne Calderwood taking on #6 Jessica Eye. Calderwood is 14-5 overall in her career with a 6-5 record in UFC while Eye is 15-8 overall and has a losing 5-7 record in UFC. Calderwood lost what was a bad matchup for her the last time out, getting submitted by Jennifer Maia in the first round. She was originally supposed to challenge for the title, but the pandemic scrapped that plan and taking on Maia was unwise in retrospect. But we like her chances of bouncing back against Eye, who is also off a loss and had a particularly rough 2020 dealing with gallbladder surgery and a staph infection. Eye has never beaten a fighter the caliber of Calderwood before and we don’t think it happens now. Play on CALDERWOOD

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This is an 8* on LUNGIAMBULA

We’ve got a couple of 185 pounders (Middleweights) here with Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2) taking on Markus Perez (12-4). While Perez has more career victories, he now has a losing record in the UFC (2-4).  He’s dropped two in a row and was on the wrong end of a first round knockout back in October when he faced Dricus Du Plessis. That happened to be the first time Perez was stopped in his career, which is clearly on the downside. As for Lungiambula, this is his division debut as he drops down from Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). He’s 1-1 in the UFC, having won his debut against Dequan Townsend (a favorable matchup) with a knockout 42 seconds into the third round. But he could not overcome Magomed Ankalaev in November of 2019, that time tasting the cavas himself with a third round knockout loss. The reason for the long layoff between fights is COVID as he was originally set to fight in December. (It was his opponent, not him, that had COVID). Perez seems to get careless in his fights, which will leave him open to get knocked out again here. Look for Lumgiambula to have a successful debut at 185 lbs. Play on DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA

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This is a 7* on CONDIT

Two veterans of the fight game square off in this fight on UFC on ABC 1. Carlos Condit is 31-13 in his MMA career, but now has a losing record (8-9) in the UFC thanks to a five-fight losing streak from 2016-18. But in his lone bout over the last two years, he rebounded to defeat Court McGee by decision last October. Condit is a decent-sized favorite here, which should tell you something, as he faces Matt Brown, who is 22-17 overall after dropping six of his last eight fights. Brown last fought in May when he was stopped by Miguel Baeza, early in the second round. It was the fourth time in his last six fights that Brown was beaten inside the distance. These two veterans should provide an entertaining fight, but we expect Condit to get his hand raised as he’s got the confidence of being off a recent win. Play on CONDIT

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This is an 8* on UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS

Thompson, the #5 ranked welterweight in UFC, should very much be viewed as a “gatekeeper” at this stage of his UFC career. He’s still one of the division’s best, but has been unsuccessful in two previous title shots. Off a win against Vicente Luque, he’ll next face Neal, who is on a 5-0 run coming into this fight. Four of those five wins for Neal have been finishes including the last two. Both of these fighters are very accurate strikers. Thompson does the better job at avoiding punishment, but when he absorbs it, he’s the more likely to go down. The odds already flipped for this fight and could very well flip back in Thompson’s direction by the time these two hit the cage. Regardless, it will be an exciting fight where someone finishes the other. Take the Under here, which is set at 4.5 rounds. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on WILLIAMS

Williams, 11-1 in his MMA career, has fought two times in the UFC. Those two fights have lasted a total of 57 seconds with him knocking out both opponents. Sounds like our type of fighter! Pereira is the next victim. While he did win by submission back in September, Pereira is too inconsistent of a fighter to trust in this spot. His penchant for shenanigans likely plays right into Williams’ hands (or hand as it may be). Quick wins are nothing new for Williams, even before he arrived on the scene in UFC. Three of his last four wins have come in 30 seconds or less! He has six career first round finishes, four of those coming in the last five fights. Play on WILLIAMS

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This is an 8* ON MORAES

We look for Moraes to bounce back from his loss to Corey Sandhagen in October and reaffirm his status as one of the top bantamweights in the UFC. Moraes’ one issue, stamina, shouldn’t be so prevalent in a three-round fight as opposed to a five-round one. Sandhagen definitely “caught him” but losses such as that have been rare for Moraes. Font is fighting for the first time in a year and just the second time since the start of 2019. That level of inactivity isn’t good and while Font has won his last two fights - both by decision - he typically struggles against top-level competition. Moraes has fought the division’s best and should pick up the easy win here. Play on MORAES

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This is a 10* on FIZIEV

Get ready for a battle of lightweights. Moicano comes in at 14-3 after a successful debut at 155 lbs. It took him just 44 seconds to submit Damir Hadzovic back in March. But let’s not forget about the unceremonious end to his run at featherweight. Consecutive knockout losses in 2019 had many questioning Moicano’s future. His lone hope here vs. Fiziev is to get the fight on the mat. Because when it comes to striking, Fiziev has the clear edge. While Fiziev lost his UFC debut back in April of last year, he’s since rebounded to scratch out decision victories over Alex White and Marc Diakese. He’s got just the one loss in his career (8-1) and of these two fighters, Fiziev is the one with more upside. With a Muay Thai background, this is a good matchup for the favorite. Play on FIZIEV

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This is a 10* on SMITH

We’ve got a new main event for tonight’s UFC card with the Blaydes-Lewis fight being the latest victim of COVID-19 cancellations. It will be Anthony Smith taking on Devin Clark in a battle of light heavyweights (205 lbs). Clark was originally supposed to face Shamil Gamzatov, but that fight was nixed due to Gamzatov having visa issues. So in steps Smith, who is the favorite despite losing three of his last four fights. But consider the caliber of competition he’s been up against. One of those three losses was to Jon Jones. Someone who previously was in the title mix should not have much trouble taking care of Clark, who is just 6-4 and never proven himself to be a legit contender in the division. All Clark’s UFC wins have been by decision and it’s very unlikely that he could produce a finish here. What likely ends up happening is that Smith wears Clark down over the course of the fight and wins via judge’s decision. But don’t rule out a knockout either as Smith is the superior striker here. Play on ANTHONY SMITH

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This is an 8* on MURATA

Kanako Murata is making her UFC debut on Saturday. But the former Invicta Strawweight Champ brings in a very impressive resume, including an 11-1 career record in mixed martial arts. She has beaten two former “Ultimate Fighter” veterans, so it’s not as if she’s a stranger to this level of competition. Quite frankly, the inconsistent Randa Markos (10-9-1) just isn’t on her level. Markos just suffered a submission loss to Mackenzie Dern last month. That was our 10* Fight of the Month pick (on Dern) for September. It was Markos’ second straight defeat and third in four fights. She is 2-4-1 her last seven fights. Even when she’s been victorious, she gets taken down. This is a fade on Markos against a very talented UFC newcomer who should make a big impact here. Play on MURATA

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This is a 7* on A. SILVA

Last week we perhaps bid adieu to one of the all-time greats in the history of the sport. Khabib Nurmagomedov unexpectedly said “goodbye” to the Octagon (for now?) after making quick work of Justin Gaethje. Here, we know Anderson Silva is at the end of the line, but we’re looking for the fairy tale ending against Uriah Hall. Silver has not finished an opponent since 2012. Since then, he’s a poor 1-6 with one no contest. But we see Hall lacking the killer instinct in this fight. Silva does have the edge in striking accuracy as well as tighter defense. He may need to “get lucky” here, but we’ll be rooting for him as we make a rare play on a big ML underdog. Play on ANDERSON SILVA

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This is a 9* on MITCHELL

The unbeaten Bryce Mitchell (13-0) steps back into the Octagon Saturday night to take on Andre Fili, who has only been able to alternate wins and losses throughout his eight fights for the UFC. While three of Mitchell’s four UFC wins have come by a decision, he did have one thrilling submission victory and nearly repeated that result his last time out. He typically comes out like a house of fire and he’ll be wearing his camouflage shorts! Fili has just one finish over his last nine fights, so Mitchell seems safe there. It seems as if everyone is expecting a thrilling three round fight between these two featherweights, however don’t be surprised if Mitchell simply overwhelms his opponent and finishes this early. Play on MITCHELL

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This is a 9* on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

We think this fight between former NFL player Greg Hardy and Maurice Greene will go longer than expected. To be clear, it only needs to get past the halfway mark of the second round for this bet to be a winner. Early in his MMA career, Hardy’s fights were all predictably short. But the last three have all gone the distance. Greene’s last two fights have gone long enough where this Over bet would have cashed. Neither fighter is all that talented, so look for a sloppy fight where neither man is able to finish. Incredibly, neither of these guys have ever landed a single takedown! That makes for a very one-dimension style bout that will be entirely contested standing. Unless one of them gets lucky early, this probably goes to the judges. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

Despite being a pretty big underdog for this unification bout, Gaethje does have a path to victory, which is something you can’t say about virtually any of Nurmagomedov’s previous 28 opponents (all of whom have lost). Gaethje is not only a great striker, but possesses tremendous takedown defense. He will be the first former D-1 NCAA wrestler that Nurmagomedov has had to face. Gaethje has only been taken down twice in his entire UFC career. Nurmagomedov almost always gets his opponent down to the mat. The problem for Gaethje is he’s never dealt with the kind of grappler Nurmagomedov is. (Few have, except those who have faced him). Gaethje’s preferred chance here is to keep the fight standing and hopefully deliver one fatal blow. Almost all of his wins have come by TKO/submission, so there is that. But the more likely outcome is Nurmagomedov eventually does get Gaethje down and ends it as per usual. Regardless, this fight will end before the 5th round expires. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on CANNONIER

A lot is on the line here for Cannonier (13-4) as a win would likely put him in line for a shot at Middleweight Champ Israel Adesanya. It’s been a bit of a shocking rise for the native Alaskan. Cannonier actually began his UFC career as a heavyweight, but has since dropped down TWO classes and finally found success at 185 lbs. He’s won three straight fights, all by TKO, none of them reaching the six minute mark. Whittaker (21-5) has taken a different path to middleweight as he actually moved UP a class after struggling as a welterweight. He too found success at 185, even claiming the division’s title, but that was a while ago and Whittaker’s only 2020 fight (a decision win over Darren Till) wasn’t all that impressive. The bottom line here is that he’s going to be at an extreme size disadvantage and we don’t see how he can successfully counteract that. Play on CANNONIER

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This is an 8* on ALVAREZ

Let’s start early in the morning with a couple of lightweights. Alvarez (17-2) has won his last two fights, both as an underdog, stopping Danillo Belluardo and Joseph Duffy. The win over Duffy came back in July and ended in the 1st round with Alvarez winning by 1st round submission. He employed a guillotine choke few saw coming. Now Alvarez is favored over the veteran Yakovlev, who has tasted defeat 10 times before. The most recent loss occurred back in November, which is the last time he fought and was against Roosevelt Roberts, a decision loss. It was the third time in his last four fights that Yakovlev came out on the losing end. The thing with Yakovlev is that he’s too small to be a welterweight, but cutting weight to make 155 lbs seems to adversely affect his stamina. We can’t see him even making it the distance here, but even if he does, it’ll be another loss. Play on ALVAREZ

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This is a 10* on Moraes

This is the main event of the card, so these bantamweight fighters are scheduled for five rounds. At 23-6-1, Marlon Moraes is the more proven fighter and we like him quite a bit as an underdog against 12-2 Corey Sandhagen. Moraes has gone toe to toe with Henry Cejudo, the only man to defeat him in the last six fights and that was with the Bantamweight Title at stake. Moraes rebounded with a decision victory over Jose Aldo last December, but has very much been the “forgotten man” in the division (at least among top contenders) ever since. He can remind everyone of his talents tonight against Sandhagen, who obviously is not the same caliber of competitor as Cejudo is. Sandhagen had a seven-fight win streak stopped back in June at the hands of Aljamain Sterling, who finished him in Round 1 with a rear-naked choke. Keep in mind that’s the same Sterling that Moraes knocked out in just 67 seconds back in 2017. Sandhagen is a disciplined fighter, but his willingness to stand in and bang with Moraes will be his undoing. Play on MORAES

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This is a 10* on Lookboonmee

This prelim bout is in the women’s strawweight division. Lookboonmee is coming off a loss by decision back in February that dropped her to 4-2 in her MMA career. Three of her four wins have come by decision, one of which was her UFC debut against Aleksandra Albu nearly one year ago. Frey just made her own UFC debut and was unsuccessful, losing by submission in June. She’s 9-4 with six wins coming by decision. In terms of striking ratio, Lookboonmee has a tremendous edge, landing 5.07 per minute while absorbing 3.77. Frey lands only 2.09 per minute while taking 2.49. Lookboonme will get the ‘W’ here as she’s got more experience inside the Octagon and far better striking. Play on LOOKBOONME

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This is a 10* on OVER (2.5 rounds)

A fight for the Middleweight Title headlines UFC 253. Champion Israel Adesanya comes in at a perfect 19-0 with 14 of those victories coming by either KO or TKO. But the challenger, Paulo Costa is also undefeated with a 13-0 record and only one of those victories have required the judges to render a decision. But with two fighters this skilled matched up against each other in a championship situation, look for this fight to go longer than expected. Costa’s last four fights have all reached the second round with the most recent being that lone decision win (over Yoel Romero). Adesanya has finished only two of his last seven opponents and is also off a decision victory over Romero. This fight should reach the third round and possibly go even longer. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on DERN

Mackenzie Dern is the favorite here and for good reason. The 15th ranked contender in the Women’s Strawweight division is eight years younger and carries an 8-1 record. Her not ranked opponent, Rando Markos, is just 10-8-1 in her pro career. Dern began her career with seven consecutive victories, four of them coming via submission. Then she ran into Amanda Ribas last October and was beaten for the 1st time - via decision. But back in May, Dern returned to her submission ways using a kneebar to stop Hannah Cifers in the 1st round. Ironically, it is now Markos finding herself coming off a loss to Ribas. She lost to her back in March on a unanimous decision. One thing that sticks about Markos is how few finishes she has in her pro career. The number is just four and only one of those has been since 2014. Markos will look to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against the superior striker Dern.  Play on Mackenzie Dern

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This is an 8* on FABINSKI

These two middleweights are both coming off victories their last time out. Fabinski’s was more recent as he took a unanimous decision over Darren Stewart back in March to move to 15-3. Muniz is on a five-fight win streak, but hasn’t fought since November, which was his UFC debut. So the five consecutive victories don’t really carry much water. Though he’s fought more recently, Fabinski has just five fights total under his belt the last four years due to injuries. But he also has just one loss since 2014 as he’s gone 8-1 his last nine. Most of those wins have been by decision, but that speaks to the style of fighter than Fabinski is. He’s a grind it out type guy, content to win via the judges. He has no problem simply staying ahead on points and an ability to get this fight to the mat should obviously work in his favor. Muniz has a tendency to tire late, so look for Fabinski to pour it on in the final round - if it gets there. Play on FABINSKI

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8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

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This is a 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

This isn’t the heavyweight battle everyone’s coming to see Saturday at UFC 252 (that would be the title fight of Miocic vs. Cormier), but it’s our favorite call of the year inside the Octagon. Rozenstruik enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign by finishing Junior Albini, Allen Crowder, Andrei Arlovski & Alistair Overeem, all by KO, two of which came in Round 1. The Overeem knockout came with just four seconds left in a fight Rozenstruik may have otherwise lost. Unfortunately, “lady luck” then caught up with him in a 20 second KO defeat to Francis Ngannou back in May. Still, Rozenstruik has proven all he needs is “one punch” and we believe one punch is all he’ll need to dispatch former champ Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos has found a way to remain relevant within the division but is coming off back to back losses to top contenders. One of them was a Rd 1 KO at the hands of Ngannou. Prior to experiencing that same fate (see above) Rozenstruik was a perfect 10-0 in his career, all but one win coming via knockout. Dos Santos is just 6-6 his L12 fights and his best days are clearly behind him. Even worse is that he’s been TKO’d in the last five losses. This is Rozenstruik’s coming out party and another KO finish is what we’re expecting here. 10* on ROZENSTRUIK

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This is an 8* on STEWART

Stewart is a former light heavyweight who has won his last two UFC fights. Early on during the pandemic, he took a “one-off” booking (March 20th) for the Cage Warriors promotion and suffered a somewhat shocking loss, via decision, to Bartosz Fabinski. After beating an elite wrestler like Deron Winn, the Fabinski loss was definitely a “head-scratcher” for Stewart. But back in the “Octagon,” we should see him get back to his winning ways. Stewart has been a much more patient fighter as a middleweight and that was the key to his back to back victories in the latter half of last year. Pitolo has some knockout power, but that’s about it and he’s a horrible defensive fighter. He has only two UFC fights under his belt, the first being a loss to Callan Potter. He rallied to knockout Charles Byrd two months ago, but this is a pretty quick turnaround for Pitoli to face a vastly superior fighter. Stewart grinding out another decision victory is the most likely outcome here, but do not be surprised if he finishes Pitolo early. Play on STEWART

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This is a 10* on TUCKER

Big edge for Tucker here as Jaynes is facing a quick turnaround and a weight cut down to 145 pounds. Jaynes just made his UFC debut in June, knocking out Frank Camacho, but that fight was at lightweight (155 pounds). Jaynes has actually fought as heavy as 170 lbs (welterweight) previously, so cutting weight is nothing new. But fighting this light is and Jaynes has been pretty forthright in letting everyone know he wished this fight was taking place a couple of weeks later. Jaynes was a +250 underdog on the money line when he knocked out Camacho in 41 seconds. A second straight upset seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Tucker hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight saw him bounce back from his only career defeat (11-1) when he choked out Seung Woo Choi. Tucker also had a 37-23 edge in significant strikes, a nice sign after the infamous beating he took at the hands of Rick Glenn at UFC 215. The edge goes to Tucker Saturday. Play on TUCKER

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This is a 10* on OVER

We look for this fight to go longer than expected and possibly all the way to the cards. Vicente Luque aka “The Silent Assassin” has won seven of his last eight fights. Four of the last five have hit the third round including each of the previous three. May’s win over Niko Price saw the doctor step in and call the fight with just over one minute remaining. Before that, Luque’s two previous fights both went to decision. A win here would be the biggest of Brown’s career. It would also be a third straight win overall. Interestingly, none of his nine UFC fights have ended in Round 1. All we’re looking for here is to get past the midpoint of Rd 2 and that’s something that seems likely. 10* on OVER

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This is a 7* on OLIVEIRA

These two Welterweights come to “Fight Island” at the crossroads of their respective careers. Oliveira had a poor 2019 by losing a couple decisions. “Cowboy” had actually lost three straight fights when he stepped back into the Octagon in March. But he won a split decision over Max Smith, seemingly giving him new life. The win over Smith improved his career record to 21-8-1, so take away that three-fight losing streak and it’s been a solid run. Sobotta has been far more embattled as he’s never really proven himself on this kind of stage. He was signed by the UFC mainly because he’s German and that was a country the company wanted to expand into. After turning in a decent effort in a loss to Leon Edwards in March of ‘18, Sobotta has been inactive due to injuries. Coming into this fight off a two-plus year layoff is difficult and a 17-6-1 career record against not that strong of competition is hardly inspiring either. We don’t see Sobotta as being strong enough to stay in this thing for 15 minutes. 7* on Oliveira

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This is an 8* on TRINALDO

We’re going with Trinaldo in this fight as it comes down to a massive edge in experience inside the Octagon compared to his opponent. Herbert is making his UFC debut Saturday night. Trinaldo has 22 fights for UFC. He’s coming off a win in March against Makdessi, which was the second straight victory for the Brazillian. Both were by decision by Trinaldo can certainly finish. He’s won 13 of his fights by either KO/TKO or submission. Meanwhile, he’s never been knocked out in his career and only three times has he ever submitted. Herbert last fought in October so there could be some “rust,” hardly an ideal scenario to be making your UFC debut. The likely result here is Trinaldo by decision but he very well could end the fight early. Either way, look for him to get his hand raised on “Fight Island” this Saturday. 8* on TRINALDO

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This is a a 10* on GASTELLUM

This is a middleweight bout (185 pounds) scheduled for this Saturday’s Fight Night 175 card in Abu Dhabi. It’s the semi-main (event), so it’s a big deal for both fighters, both of whom are coming off losses. Gastellum was actually 0-2 in 2019, losing a “Fight of the Year” caliber bout to current MW Champ Adesanya followed by a loss to Darren Till at UFC 244 in November. Both fights were decided by the judges with the Till fight resulting in a split verdict. Hermansson saw a four-fight win streak come to an end last September when he was TKO’d in the second round by Jared Cannonier. He was supposed to fight former 185 pound titleholder Chris Weidman on May 2nd, but that was scrapped due to COVID-19. This will mark the first time in his career that Gastellum comes in on a losing streak, so look for him to come out as the more aggressive fighter. He’s better on the ground than Hermansson. He’s also never been KO’d in his career, an impressive line on the resume. The back to back losses are of little concern considering the caliber of opponents that he was facing. 10* on GASTELLUM

This is an 8* on DIAKIESE

A three-round bout at lightweight (155 pounds) goes down at UFC Fight Night 175 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. We’re backing the favorite Diakiese, who comes in with a 14-3 record after defeating Lando Vannata last September by unanimous decision. Something that is crystal clear (upon review of the statistics) is that Diakiese’s takedown game is far better than Fiziev’s. Diakiese averages roughly 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes while Fiziev averages less than a single takedown (0.91) per fight. Fiziev is 7-1 after defeating Alex White last September, also a unanimous decision. But his issue remains taking far too much punishment. We believe Diakiese is going to be able to take Fiziev down with regularity here in this fight and that’s likely enough to earn him a victory on the scorecards. 8* on DIAKIESE

This is a 10* on GORDON

The UFC’s run at “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi continues with Fight Night 172 on Wednesday, July 15th. The entire fight card can be viewed on ESPN+ with this particular matchup taking place on the “main show.” It’s a featherweight bout (145 lbs), scheduled for three rounds, between Jared Gordon (15-4-1) and Chris Fishgold (18-3-1). Our money is on the former as despite a 3-3 record in his previous six fights, Gordon is someone known for landing lots of strikes. While he was KO’d in his last fight (November 2019 by Charles Oliveira), Fishgold is a far better matchup here for Gordon, who will have the striking advantage and has adequate takedown defense. Fishgold has dropped two of three fights since coming to the UFC and it’s thought his future with the promotion will be in jeopardy with yet another loss. Unlike Gordon, Fishgold prefers to take the fight to the ground. Unfortunately for him, we don’t see that happening here. The fact Fishgold has been stopped twice doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence on his end. 10* on GORDON

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This is an 8* on SANTOS

UFC 251 will be the first of four consecutive fight cards to emanate from “Fight Island” (in Abu Dhabi) in the month of July. For the pay per view event, we’ve decided to focus on an undercard bout that takes place at 155 pounds (lightweight). You will actually be able to watch this fight on ESPN as it is part of the prelims. It puts the undefeated Russian (Bogatov) against the veteran Santos. Despite the former’s perfect 10-0 career mark, he checks in as the decided underdog for this fight. That’s not all that surprising seeing as this will be his UFC debut and thus this fight is a tremendous step up in class from what Bogatov has dealt with in the past. Meanwhile this will be Santos’ 8th UFC fight and so far he’s gone 6-0-1. In fact, going back to 2010, Santos owns a 12-0-1 record in all fights with seven of the wins coming by either submission or knockout. Santos is a pure striker and will look to keep this fight standing while Bogatov is more of a submission expert and will want to get things to the ground. We believe Santos will avoid getting taken down. In his last fight, he outstruck his opponent 12-2 and ended it in only 2:17. It probably won’t be that quick this time around and he may not even be able to finish Bogatov. But look for Santos to get his hand raised.  8* on SANTOS

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This is an 8* on HARRIS

This will be an emotional fight for Harris, who is returning to the Octagon for the 1st time since his stepdaughter tragically passed away last November. That situation (rightfully) resulted in Harris pulling out of a scheduled bout with Overeem on Deember 7th. Overeem still fought that day and looked to be on his way to victory before getting KO'd with four seconds to go. Overeem has now lost three of his previous five fights. Meanwhile, Harris is unbeaten over his last four fights and has been incredibly impressive in the last two, winning Performance of the Night bonuses both times. Considering the emotion involved, we can't help but side with Harris, whose two wins last year both came by first round knockout. 

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This is an 8* on Jotko

This middleweight bout pits two fighters that were once on three-fight losing streaks, but have since bounced back with two straight wins. Eryk Anders stopped Vinicius Moreira last June to improve to 13-4 in his MMA career and he's KO'd 2/3 of his UFC opposition. Krzysztof Jotko may not posses the "stopping power" of his opponent (65% of wins have come via decision), but he's 21-4 overall and looked impressive in defeating Alen Amedovski and Marc-Andre Barriault in 2019. This is a fighter that went 19-1 over his first 20 pro fights. The keys for Jotko are experience and ground game. Anders simply has never demonstrated any kind of comfort level on the ground. Don't be surprised if that's where the majority of this fight takes place. That favors Jotko, who gets our nod of approval.

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This is a 6* on Yadong

Two top ranked featherweights meet here with Song Yadong (15-1-1) meeting Marlon Vera (15-5-1). Yadong has yet to taste defeat since coming to the UFC (4-0-1 record) while Vera is on a five-fight win streak himself. But prior to that win streak, Vera had been just a .500 fighter inside the Octagon with a 4-4 WL record. Yadong had to settle for a draw against Cody Stamann back in December, which ended his own seven fight win streak. Five of those saw him finish the opposition. Three of those five finishes came in the first round! Yadong is an exciting fighter that can't be ignored right now. He's our call to get his hand raised Saturday.

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