This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

There's a lot to digest coming into the first ever World Series Game 7 where two former Cy Young winners will be starting. The road team has won all six games so far, which is really surprising given how good of a home team the Astros are. Even with the three losses to the Nationals, Houston's record at Minute Maid Park is 65-25 this year and they have scored 159 more runs than they have allowed in those 90 games. Only one time, a three-game losing streak to Oakland last month, have the Astros lost more than two in a row at home in 2019. Thus, with everything on the line tonight, we can't see them losing a 4th straight home game. We just can't. While many inside the Washington clubhouse are probably ecstatic over the fact Max Scherzer gets to start Game 7, he is a huge question mark after being scratched from Game 5 because of neck spasms. Those spasms reportedly led to him being unable to even lift his arm. Scherzer probably still pitches well, but won't match Zack Greinke, whose only quality start this postseason was the one time he got to start at home. Going back to the start of the series, the Astros were the biggest WS favorite since 2007. Though it always hasn't been apparent, they do have the better bullpen. We like Houston to win the Fall Classic at home. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

THis is a 10* on the UNDER

While all the focus remains on the fact the home team is 0-6, the only game to go Under in this World Series was Game 3 in Washington and that was with the pitchers having to come up to bat. But with the stakes at their highest and two starters the caliber of Scherzer and Greinke going in Game 7, we're calling for a low-scoring game. Greinke's only WS start was Game 3 and he held the Nationals to one run in 4 2/3 IP. Tonight marks just the second time Greinke has started at home in these playoffs. The first was his best outing of the postseason as he went six innings and held the Yankees to three runs. His home ERA and WHIP for the year are 3.61 and 1.055 respectively. But Grienke isn't the only former Cy Young winner pitching tonight. Scherzer, who was scratched from Game 5 due to neck spasms, makes it the first ever WS Game 7 where two former Cy Youngs are starting. Assuming Scherzer is okay, he too should pitch well here. He has a 2.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 road starts. His last three starts overall have yielded a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Really, we shouldn't have to delve too deep into how good the two starters here truly are. It's surprising that the Over is 5-1 in this series considering the home team has averaged just 2.0 runs/game! Under is 6-1 last seven times Grienke has started on four days rest. Under is also 9-2 Scherzer's last 11 Interleague starts. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The road team is 3-0 in this World Series. The Over won in Games 1 and 2. The Under came in for Game 3. If you’re looking for a pattern with the total, the two Overs hit in the American League park (pitchers don’t have to bat) while the Under hit in a National League park (pitchers have to come up to bat). Looking at these patterns, you’d expect the home team to win a game eventually. It might happen tonight. But we aren’t willing to bet on it. The Under seems like the right call. While there’s no “ace” on the mound tonight, Pat Corbin has pitched very well for Washington this year, especially when at home. Corbin has a 14-3 TSR here in the Beltway. He also has a 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. You have to remember the Houston lineup is not at full strength with the DH out. Urquidy will get the start in Game 4 for the Astros. While this is his first postseason start, he allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five regular season starts. Play UNDER Houston-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

At the beginning of this series, the Astros were listed as the biggest favorite for any World Series going back to 2007. Not anymore. They lost both Games 1 and 2 at home and are now in a real hole as the series moves to Washington. The Nationals have won 18 of their last 20 including eight straight. The last time a team lost Games 1 and 2 at home and went on to win the WS was 1996. It's only happened three times in history. But we're willing to throw our weight behind Zack Greinke and Houston tonight. This Astros team is too good to lose three in a row. That's happened only five times all season and two of those five losing streak were before the end of April. Greinke has pitched quite well against Washington in his career. He's 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in nine starts and one of those came this year in this stadium. As a member of Arizona, Greinke threw 7 1/3 shutout innings where he allowed only two hits. The Astros are 23-5 when playing after an off-day. The numbers say Washington's Game 3 starter Anibal Sanchez pitches better on the road than here at home. It's a must-win for the Astros and we'll play accordingly. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 6* on HOUSTON

It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massie favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight and that gives them a huge edge against any opponent, even the Nationals with Max Scherzer going opposite Cole. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Astros have won the last 16 times Cole has started! Scherzer is great in his own right, but Cole is simply on a different level right now. The Nationals are just 9-11 this season as a road underdog of +125 or more. The Astros are 65-22 at home, outscoring teams by almost two full runs per game, and they are 23-8 priced between -175 and -250. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

THis is a 9* play on the UNDER

It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massive favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Under is 5-1-1 in Cole’s last seven starts (0.71 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) with just the one Over being the only game where there were more than seven combined runs scored. Houston should feel lucky to have Cole pitching tonight because Washington has Max Scherzer. Scherzer also has a 3-0 TSR in the playoffs to go along with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. For the year, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. On the road, those numbers slightly improve to 2.43 and 0.91. When Scherzer and those kind of numbers represent the second best starter in a given matchup, the game is probably going Under. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

AAA

This is a 9* play on the YANKEES (RUN LINE)

It's do or die for the Yankees Friday night as they now face a 3-1 series deficit. After winning Game 1 by a score of 7-0, it's been all downhill. But they do get one more home game. With everyone pretty much writing their chances off at this point, we think it's a good time to "double down" and take them on the run line as they should at least keep Game 5 close, if not win it. James Paxton is starting tonight. He had won 10 straight decisions before getting a quick hook in Game 2. The final score of that game was 3-2, so you can see why the run line could be a good idea tonight. Beating Justin Verlander is not easy, but the Rays did it at home in Game 4 of the ALDS. We think the Yankees can do the same here as they are in the situation the Rays were, that being facing elimination in a home game. The Yankees are 5-2 this season after losing their last three games. Getting the Yankees this offense with a +1.5 at home isn't something that happens very often. It's a shockingly low price too. Paxton has been a "stopper" this year with a 6-0 TSR the last six times he's started off a Yankees loss. The team is also 6-0 in his last six starts at home. Play the YANKEES on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* on the YANKEES

The Astros lead this series 2-1 after taking the last two games. Game 4 (originally set for Weds) was bumped back a day, which allows for a "re-shuffling" of the deck, pitching-wise. Both teams were intending on making Wednesday a "bullpen day," but with the rainout it will allow them to go back to their regular rotations. Now we get a repeat of the Game 1 matchup - Zack Greinke vs. Masahiro Tanaka - which was won by the Yankees 7-0. Greinke has struggled in two playoff starts, giving up five home runs. He's given up nine runs total in two games, lasting just 9 2/3 innings. Tanaka threw six innings of shutout ball in Game 1 while allowing only one hit. He's 2-0 in the playoffs as he allowed only one run and three hits against the Twins in the LDS. Houston has not done much offensively in this series as they've scored just seven runs in three games, on 17 hits. The Yankees are 70-28 their last 98 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 39-21 this year after a loss. Play on NY YANKEES

AAA

This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

Gerrit Cole. That's what this one comes down to for us. Houston had to turn to its ace twice in the Tampa Bay series and both times Cole delivered with stellar outings. Now its the Yankees turn to face him. This is a crucial game where you want your best starter on the mound. So Houston "lucked out" a bit in that they had to wait until Game 3 to start Cole. The Yankees go with Severino, who hadn't started a game before September due to injury. It'll have to be a joint effort here with the bullpen for the Yankees as Severino hasn't pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts this year. Cole, on the other hand, is a machine. He can certainly be counted on for at least seven innings tonight. He went 7 2/3 and 8 in the two starts last series, allowing only one run and six hits total. He had 25 strikeouts and just three walks. Really, the entire 2019 season has been a ridiculous run for Cole as his last loss occurred on May 22nd! Since then, he's 18-0 in 25 starts with the Astros going 23-2 overall including 15-0 the L15! Talk about line value ... Cole hasn't been south of -200 on the money line since he was -175 at Milwaukee on September 2nd. Since winning that one, he's been -270 or higher for seven consecutive starts, a stretch which has seen him go 7-0 with a 0.87 ERA. While we have to be careful to "respect" the Yankees in this position, the bottom line is we like Cole too much to pass up taking him at this price. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5

Oddsmakers had Washington as the favorite to win the NLCS before the series started. That's looking like a pretty smart position now as the Nationals won both games in St. Louis. Gone is the home field advantage in the series, but it would be wrong to write the Cardinals off this early in the series. They've got one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday. That would be Jack Flaherty. Remember Flaherty was favored to win his start in Atlanta in Game 2 and was even money for Game 5. The team split the pair, losing Game 2 by a score of 3-0 but winning Game 5, 13-1. Flaherty posted a 2.77 ERA in the two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 13 innings. Flaherty hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his previous 18 starts. He allowed zero runs in half of those 18 starts (9 times), a stretch that dates back to before the All Star Break. So even though he's facing Steven Strasburg and being backed by an offense that could barely get a hit the first two games, Flaherty +1.5 seems like a safe bet to us as he's a lock not to give up many runs. It hasn't mattered yet in this series, but the Cardinals do have the better bullpen. Washington didn't do much scoring in the first two games either. Play ST LOUIS on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Astros are 4-2 off a shutout loss this season and 16-7 the last three seasons in this very situation. A stunning 7-0 defeat in Game 1 should only have them stronger for Game 2 when they'll send out Verlander, who is 4-0 in his postseason career against the Yankees including a pair of wins in the 2017 ALCS. Verlander lost his last start, which came on short rest. He has not dropped consecutive decisions even one time this year. Houston is 25-11 in his 36 starts, an individual campaign which could produce another Cy Young. Verlander is 11-4 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When he pitched here in Game 1 of the LDS, he didn't allow a run in seven innings and gave up just one hit. The Astros home record this year is 63-22. They don't lose back to back home games often. They did lose three in a row to Oakland last month. But before that it happened only three times all year and not since June. James Paxton is the Game 2 starter for the Yankees. The Yanks have won 12 straight times with Paxton on the mound. But he wasn't especially great in either of the last two and this is his toughest assignment of the season. The Astros are 21-5 the last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

For the second time in the last three years, it will be the Astros meeting the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Two years ago, Houston prevailed in a seven game series that saw the home team go 7-0. Fortunately for the Astros, they once again have the homefield edge. The only time that the Yanks had to come to Minute Maid Park in 2019 was back in April. They were swept in that three-game series. Before winning Game 3 over Minnesota in the LDS, New York had lost 10 of 12 playoff road games. They are just 2-12 their last 14 road games in LCS play including the 0 for 4 in Houston back in 2017. We suppose the only question mark with the Astros going into Game 1 would be Zack Grienke facing this potent Yankees lineup. Greinke did not pitch well in Game 3 of the LDS vs. Tampa Bay where he gave up three home runs and six runs total in a 10-3 loss. But that's not something we usually see from him and certainly its even less common to see Greinke turn in two bad starts in a row. He pitched well the two times he faced NY in the regular season. In 12 2/3 innings, he allowed only three runs. Greinke has lost just once at home this year. For the Yankees, Tanaka often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00. He got to pitch at home in the LDS. The Yankees are 5-7 this year as underdogs of +125 to +175 on the road. Houston is an impressive 21-4 after a day off. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS

We think it's a little interesting that it's Washington favored to win the NLCS. After all, the Nationals were not expected to be here. They appeared dead in Game 5 vs. the Dodgers, down 3-0, but shocking back to back home runs off Clayton Kershaw brought them back to life and allowed them to win in extra innings. Earlier that day, St. Louis pounded Atlanta 13-1, becoming the first team in postseason history to score 10 runs in the first inning. The Cardinals are the ones with homefield advantage in the series and that's huge for a starting rotation whose individual members almost all pitch better here. Miles Mikolas is up first. In his only LDS start (Game 1), his team got the win thanks to five solid innings where Mikolas allowed only one run on three hits. He also threw a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4. He has a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 3.01 ERA/1.05 WHIP at home this season. Mikolas got to face Washington twice in the regular season and he ended up allowing just four runs in 12 innings. The Cardinals don't give up many runs at home (just 3.6 per game) so them getting handed homefield advantage is a big deal. Anibal Sanchez is the Game 1 starter for the Nationals. He is 2-4 in eight career starts vs. St. Louis and took a loss against them back in April. While the starting pitching matchup may seem close to even, the Cardinals have a substantial edge in the bullpen. Really good value on the home team for Game 1. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Not many people expected the Rays to extend the Astros this far, but here we are and it's the last League Division Series to be decided. The home team is 4-0 in the series and with Game 5 in Houston, you probably won't find many "takers" on the Rays outside of their own clubhouse. We acknowledge the unlikelihood of the Rays advancing (though we did have them in Game 3), but won't be getting involved with the Astros either due to the current price. We are actually 4-0 in this series having cashed Houston in Game 1, the Under in Game 2, Tampa Bay in Game 3 and the Under in Game 4. Now it's time to play the Over, which may sound strange as Gerrit Cole is pitching for the Astros and we did take the Under in his Game 2 start. As masterful as he was that day and as dominant as he's been throughout the second half, the Astros offense is more than capable of scoring enough on its own to help send this one Over. They average 6.0 runs/game at home for the year. Tampa Bay did score 10 runs in Game 3, six of them against Zack Greinke. So don't rule out the notion of them hitting Cole better tonight than they did in Game 2. Tyler Glasnow is the Game 5 starter for the Rays. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 and gave up two runs. The Over is 5-1 in the Rays past six LDS road games. The Over is also 5-2 in Cole's last seven home starts despite how well he has pitched in those games. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (run line)

The LDS between the Nationals and Dodgers will go to a Game 5 in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Starting for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg. Starting for LA will be Walker Buehler (not Clayton Kershaw). As good as Buehler and the Dodgers have been, the opportunity to take Strasburg and the Nationals +1.5 (run line) in this situation is even better. Buehler was sensational in winning Game 1. He gave up just one hit in six innings. But Strasburg was equally as sensational in winning Game 2. He allowed just one run and three hits in six innings, beating Kershaw. The numbers from Strasburg's last several starts are also eye-opening. It's a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three as he's given up two runs and 10 hits in 19 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and just three walks. For the sake of comparison, Buehler has allowed six runs his last three starts (only 16 innings) and has 10 walks. In a game that rates pretty close to a toss-up, laying juice to get the 1.5 runs seems like a smart move. Washington has proven it can beat the mighty Dodgers. They are 3-3 here in LA this season and 6-6 the L3 seasons. Play WASHINGTON +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

It's come down to a winner-take-all game between the Cardinals and Braves. After splitting two games in Atlanta, the same thing happened in St. Louis. The Cardinals needed 10 innings to win Game 4. Interestingly, the team that has been trailing entering the 8th inning has won three of the four games. That includes both Cardinals victories. The two games St. Louis won saw them score five or more runs. The two that they lost saw them score 1 total. The problem for Game 5 is they are facing a pitcher they failed to score any runs against and that's Mike Foltynewicz, who previously started Game 2. Foltynewicz outdueled Jack Flaherty, which is not easy to do. But Foltynewicz now has a 1.51 ERA and 0.82 WHIP his last seven starts. He's allowed 0 or 1 run in five of his last six. It's five total runs allowed his last 40 innings. Flaherty allowed all three runs in the Game 2 loss. He does have slightly better numbers than Foltynewicz in his last seven starts and certainly the better numbers overall. But the issue is that Game 5 takes place in Atlanta. Flaherty's numbers go up on the road and the team actually has a losing record in his away starts (8-10). Atlanta is a good home team and easily could have put this series away already. They finally do so Wednesday. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay managed to keep its season going (at least for another day) with a stunning 10-3 win in Game 3. We weren't too surprised as we backed the Rays +1.5 Monday and did call for more offensive than expected. Still, beating Zack Greinke and the Astros by that kind of margin was eye-opening. But the oddsmakers are rightly giving the Rays little chance in Game 4 as the pitching matchup appears to be as one-sided as any we'll see all postseason. Justin Verlander goes for Houston. He started Game 1 and didn't allow a run in seven innings. He only allowed one hit. Verlander is of course on the short list for the AL Cy Young as he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.80 WHIP for the season. After yesterday's offensive explosion, TB should be back to the lack of production at the plate that we saw in both Games 1 and 2. Even with his last three starts all ending up as Overs, the Under remains 22-12 in all Verlander starts this season. The Under had been 10-1 in the Rays' previous 11 home playoff games (before yesterday). The price is obviously too high to play Houston in this matchup, so it's on Diego Castillo and the rest of the Rays staff to limit what the Astros do at the plate. Considering TB allows only 3.8 runs/game at Tropicana Field, something we cited in our Game 3 analysis, we think they are up to that challenge. Play UNDER Houston-Tampa Bay

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA +1.5

The Twins have simply had no luck when it comes to facing the Yankees in the playoffs. They've lost 12 straight postseason games to them and 15 straight postseason games overall! Tonight, their season hangs in the balance, but they are back home with Jake Odorizzi set to start. Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe manager Rocco Baldelli should have kept Odorizzi as his Game 2 starter as Randy Dobnak was no match for the powerful Yankees lineup. But the Twins have a powerful lineup of their own, one that also hit 300+ home runs in the regular season, something no other team in baseball history had done prior to 2019. Giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with at home seems like a smart play at home, especially because this is the first time in the series Minnesota looks to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Odorizzi has an 8-2 team start record his 10 trips to the mound. None of those have seen him give up more than three earned runs. It's a streak that goes all the way back to the end of July. The Yankees turn to Severino, who pitched just three times this year due to a shoulder injury. Up 2-0 in the series, this is probably the best time to try him, but we still think he's far from a safe bet at this point. While history is not on the Twins side tonight, we are, at least with them getting 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA on the RUN LINE. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY +1.5

The Rays are finding out the hard way just how difficult facing this Astros starting rotation can be in a postseason format. As expected, Tampa has struggled to score runs here, managing just three total in the first two games and none of those came against Houston starters Verlander and Cole. Now they are set to face Zack Grienke. At least they will do so at Tropicana Field where during the regular season the Rays allowed just 3.8 runs/game themselves.  It stands to reason that the game should be more competitive now. Also the Rays are going with Charlie Morton, the winner of the Wild Card Game, who allowed just one run across five innings. The Rays have now won Morton's last six starts. Morton has actually been one of the more consistent starters in the American League all season. He has a 23-11 team start record overall and his numbers at home are very good. His ERA is 2.59. His WHIP is 0.96. In their only previous trip to Tampa this year (very early in season), the Astros actually lost three of the four games. Play TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We were on the Astros in Game 1, a relatively easy call as they rolled to a 6-2 victory. Justin Verlander did his job by throwing seven shutout innings and Houston led 6-0 by the time they went to the bullpen. Though Tampa Bay did end up scoring twice in the top of the eighth, they were faced with an insurmountable edge. Those two runs that the Rays scored weren't totally insignificant though, pardon the pun, as they did send the game Over the total. Given that the game was still a scoreless tie through four innings, that had to be a heartbreaker for Under bettors. We'll provide them with some much needed relief for Game 2 though as this one should stay Under. The Rays go from facing Verlander to now having to deal w/ Gerritt Cole. That's rough. Cole set team records in the regular season by winning his last 16 decisions and striking out 326 batters. His 2.50 ERA was not only a career-best, but also topped all American League starters this year. So look for the Rays to have another tough night at the plate. If they are to have any chance of winning Game 2, it will be because of their own starter, Blake Snell, last year's Cy Young winner. While it's been awhile since Snell pitched more than three innings (missed two months due to elbow surgery), we've got confidence that he'll pitch relatively well in this spot. The Under is 4-0 in Snell's previous four starts vs. the Astros. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Twins-Yankees

These teams certainly aren't lacking in the run production department. They are the only two teams in baseball history to hit 300+ home runs in a single season. Not coincidentally, they finished 1-2 in overall runs scored this year. The last time they met was late July and not only did all three games go Over the total, all of them saw at minimum 14 runs scored. We know it's now the postseason, but this seems like a really low O/U line for these two clubs. Neither starter really impresses us as Jose Berrios (Twins) has a 4.85 ERA his past seven starts, having given up at least five runs in three of them. James Paxton (Yankees) seemingly got hot down the stretch as the Yankees have won all of his last 11 starts. But his last one saw him have to leave after one inning, so there's concern there. The Over is 8-2 in Paxton's last 10 starts, by the way. Yes, the Yankees have an incredible bullpen, but if the Twins lineup can get to Paxton, that won't be as big of a factor. We figure both teams are going to hit their fair share of home runs in this game and that means the Over is in play. Both sides are clearly capable of putting at least five runs on the board in Game 1. Play OVER Twins-Yankees

AAA

This is a 6* play on HOUSTON

With the best rotation in the game, it seems like everyone is picking the Astros to at least make it to the World Series. They definitely appear to have the decided edge for Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay as Justin Verlander will be pitching with plenty of rest. Verlander is likely to finish in the top two of the Cy Young voting this year. His main competition will be teammate Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 34 starts this year, 24 of those resulting in Houston wins. The opposing pitcher for Game 1, Tyler Glasnow, actually has a lower ERA (1.78) and comparable WHIP (0.89) but in roughly one-third the starts Verlander has made. He missed a bulk of the season due to injury and also averages far less innings per start than does Verlander. While Houston has been off since Sunday, Tampa Bay obviously had to win the Wild Card Game to get to this point. This week has seen them go from Toronto to Oakland to Houston in a five-day span, which is a tough stretch, especially seeing as they're now matched up with one of the top two teams in baseball. The Astros were 60-21 at home in the regular season. They are 30-14 in day games (104-48 L3 seasons). Go with the better team. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on the DODGERS

Two hot teams meet in this NLDS as the Dodgers have won nine straght and the Nationals have won seven straight. Washington got here thanks to a fielding gaffe by Milwaukee's right fielder in the bottom of the eighth Tuesday night. That one error allowed three runs to score and the Nats to prevail 4-3 in the Wild Card Game. Thankfully, we had the Brewers on the run line (+1.5). We'll look to fade Washington again tonight as it'll take a lot more than an error to get by the juggernaut that is the Dodgers. Consider this: LA is 59-22 at home this year. They are the clear favorites to win the NL pennant as they have by far the best pitching in the game today. They led the NL in ERA at home, on the road and overall. They also have best defensive efficiency of any team. They also scored more runs than every other National League team. Really, there isn't a single category where this team isn't the best. They don't even feel the need to go with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 as it'll be Walker Buehler instead. That's fine by us as the Dodgers won 20 of Buehler's 30 starts in the regular season. He has a 2.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this year. His ERA in two starts vs. the Nationals was 2.92. Pat Corbin will be the Game 1 starter for Washington, not a bad option, but he's facing the superior lineup. Corbin's numbers noticeably rose on the road and that left him with an 8-9 team start record in those starts. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Division winners Atlanta and St. Louis meet in this National League Division Series. This will be their first time playing since May. There were two series between them that took place that month. The Braves took two of three in both. They've got the homefield advantage, which seems important given that virtually every Cardinals starter seems to perform substantially worse on the road. That's something we'll definitely be tracking in this series. Miles Mikolas is the Game 1 starter for St. Louis. He went just 4-8 in 17 road starts during the regular season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. So that you can compare, he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. The one time Mikolas faced the Braves this year, it was at home. He allowed three runs and seven hits, so it's reasonable to expect him to give up more Thursday. Atlanta is going with Dallas Keuchel as its Game 1 starter. While Keuchel's last five starts have all stayed Under, he certainly hasn't pitched well in two of the previous three. In fact, the Braves have lost Keuchel's last three starts with him posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. There are some questions about how well the St. Louis offense will perform in a postseason environment, but the Over is 7-1 their last 8 playoff games. They have also gone Over 41 of the last 65 times they've faced a left-handed starter. The Braves are one of the highest scoring teams in the National League. The Over is 6-1 the last seven times they've hosted St. Louis. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta

AAA

This is a 9* on OAKLAND

This year's AL Wild Card Game features two franchises not exactly known for being deep in the pocketbooks, but the A's and Rays are both rich in pitching and most are going to expect a low-scoring game here. Oakland really surged in the second half as it won 97 games for the second consecutive season. They were just 37-36 on June 16th, but have gone 60-29 ever since. That's impressive. Starting this winner-take-all game for them will be Sean Manaea, an excellent choice in our opinion. Manaea is undefeated since returning from shoulder surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in five games. He has 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings while giving up only four runs and 16 hits. He's walked only seven batters, so you're looking at a 0.78 WHIP as well. Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs of any American League playoff team, so it's a good matchup here for the Athletics, who get the game at home as well. They were 52-29 at home in the regular season. Three teams had more home victories than the A's - the Dodgers, Houston and the Yankees. It's interesting that there were only five games in which TB was a road dog of +125 to +175. They had a losing record in those games. Charlie Morton starts here for the Rays and he's actually been one of the more consistent starters in the AL. But his WHIP is noticeably higher on the road. The bullpens are going to play a role here, but we just don't know where the runs are going to come from for the Rays. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Brewers season appeared to be over when MVP candidate Christian Yelich fouled a ball off his knee. But instead of folding, the team surged in Yelich's absence, going 22-10 the final 32 games and earning this Wild Card berth (almost won the division). It's not always pretty with Milwaukee, but they do have one massive edge over Washington and that's the bullpen. The Nationals not only possess the worst bullpen of the 10 playoff teams this year, in terms of ERA they have one of the five worst pens in the last 21 seasons! It should be noted that the other four teams in the bottom five averaged 99 losses in their respective seasons. Milwaukee, on the other hand, won because of their bullpen not in spite of it.  In September, the Brewers turned in a 3.01 ERA, right at the top of all of baseball. As the decided favorite Tuesday, Washington is under a lot of pressure and this is a franchise that has often come up small in the postseason. If the Brewers can get an early lead, they can turn to the bullpen, which has been so dominant, to stay ahead. History suggests that starter Brandon Woodruff won't go long here. But if he can help get his team an early lead, they're golden. It's not like Woodruff isn't the right option to start here either. The team won 18 of the 22 games he started this year! The Nationals are going with Max Scherzer and while that seemingly gives them an edge, they were basically a coinflip proposition with him on the mound this year, going 14-13 in his 27 starts. They were 6-9 in his 15 home starts. Scherzer also struggled a bit down the stretch with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts. We can easily see Milwaukee winning this game, or if they lose it'll be by just one run. Take the run line and if the Brewers do win, don't be surprised if it's because of the bullpen. Play MILWAUKEE on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* on CINCINNATI

The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note.

AAA

This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

It took awhile, but the Phillies snapped their six-game losing streak last night by beating the Marlins 5-4 in 15 innings. That result is something we'd called for as Philadelphia came into Friday below .500 for the first time all season. We made the case that Miami is an ideal opponent for them to wrap the year up against and that mindset hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. The Marlins are the NL's worst team in just about every department as they are 56-104 and have been outscored by 188 runs. The Phillies at least have the motivation of trying to finish above .500 for the year, which they can do by winning the final two games. After a 15-inning loss, Miami is hardly likely to come back with a strong effort on the road. Starter Caleb Smith pitched well in two previous starts vs. the Phillies this year, but both were all the way back in April. Recently, Smith has struggled with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last seven starts. He's also struggled most of the year on the road. So have the Marlins as a team as their record away from home is now 26-53 including 9-24 as an underdog of +125 to +175. The Phillies Zach Eflin should have a solid start tonight. Prior to getting beat up by Washington on Monday, Eflin hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in six straight starts. The Phillies are 24-14 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 48-28 in that role since 2017. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia wraps up a very disappointing season this weekend at home. This was supposed to be a playoff year after they went out and signed Bryce Harper. But instead, they'll finish with a very similar record to 2018. In fact, they are actually now a game below .500 (79-80), thanks to a six-game losing streak which is their second longest all season. But at least they get to face Miami to end the year. The Marlins are one of four 100+ loss teams in baseball and the only one in the National League. They have been out of contention from the start and no one has disputed that it's they who have been the NL's worst all year long. Vince Velasquez goes tonight for Philly. His team start record is 12-10. That included four wins in a row prior to him losing in Cleveland on Sunday. We actually went against him in that start, noting how he might "cool off." But three of the four runs he allowed in that game were unearned. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR for the Marlins with five of those losses coming in his last six outings. The only exception was his last start. But that was at home. On the road, you're looking at a 2-7 TSR and a 7.27 ERA. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two NL Central teams conclude their seasons in PNC Park this weekend as the Pirates host the Reds. While these are the final games for both sides, they probably feel very different about their respective 2019 seasons. The Reds appear to be a team on the rise, with some strong pitching, as they're going to NOT lose 90+ games for the 1st time since 2014. That said, they've lost the last four games. Pittsburgh has fallen hard this year as they've lost 91 games and will finish last in the division. Their future outlook seems a lot more bleak, though they did just shockingly sweep the Cubs here at home in their last series. The Pirates often do allow a lot of runs, but Cincinnati comes in having scored just 30 in its last 12 contests. For the season, the Reds are bottom six in baseball in runs scored. But they are top eight in runs allowed. Something will have to give with the top Over team (Pittsburgh) facing the top Under team (Cincinnati). Reds starter DeSclafani has a 1.89 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his previous three starts, so that's fairly "on brand." We'll hope that Pirates starter Brault can improve upon his recent efforts thanks to facing a team he held scoreless back in May. Brault does tend to pitch better at home. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is a 10* play on the GIANTS

This has been a tightly contested series thus far. Colorado won Tuesday's game 8-5, but not before the teams combined to use a MLB-record 25 different pitchers in a 16-inning affair. Then last night, the Giants gained a measure of revenge by winning in walkoff fashion, 2-1. For Colorado, a team with nothing to play for, it'll be tough to come back with today's game taking place in the afternoon. It's not like the Rockies are a good road team either. They're actually quite horrible as last night's loss dropped them to 28-52 away from Coors Field. Kyle Freeland gets the start for them here and he hasn't been effective all year. He's 3-11 in 21 starts with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He'd missed about a month before returning last Friday and pitching just two innings against the Dodgers. While the team has won two of his three starts against San Francisco this year, we can't say that Freeland has been all that effective in them. It's pretty crazy to think that Colorado made the playoffs last year. They very well could end up having the biggest drop in wins (of any team) this year. The Giants are also out of it, but they're playing for manager Bruce Bochy this week as he's set to retire. Thursday starter Tyler Beede has had a pretty good September with a 3.80 ERA in four starts. It was looking even better before he ran into a good Atlanta team last weekend. But the Rockies don't hit like the Braves. Not on the road at least. They are 28th in runs scored on the road, ahead of only Detroit and Miami. They are also last in team batting average (.230) and 29th (next to last) in OPS at .679. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is a 6* play on OAKLAND

So it now looks like the A's will be going with Frankie Montas as the starter tonight. Originally, it was going to be Michael Fiers. Montas returns under the most auspicious of circumstances as he's coming off an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Perhaps the drugs were doing their job because Montas was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before getting caught. You hope the results don't go away as a result. Montas has faced the Angels three times this year and is 2-0. This is a really critical spot for him to step into as the A's lost last night, reducing their lead for the Wild Card to a half game over Tampa and one game over Cleveland. (Only two of those three teams make it). Fortunately, it may not matter how Montas performs tonight. Because if Andrew Heaney continues pitching the way he has of late for the Angels, Montas will have plenty of cushion. Heaney has given up six runs in back to back starts while allowing a total of five home runs. He's had some good stretches this year, but the only start against Oakland saw him give up five runs. Note that the A's have dropped two straight games now. The last time they lost three in a row was July. They rebound tonight. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on BOSTON

Anytime the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, the season is ultimately failure in Boston. So chalk up 2019 in the failure category as last year's World Series champs won't even be going back to the postseason this year. But most teams in the league would still love to be as good as Boston is. The Red Sox will likely still end up winning 85 games this year and they have a +75 run differential. That's a lot better than Texas, who is heading towards its third straight losing season. The Red Sox beat the Rangers yesterday, 12-10, in the opener of what is their final series on the road. Winning on the road hasn't been the problem for Boston this year. They are actually 45-34 in all road games. It's a losing record at Fenway Park that ultimately hurt them the most. The fact Boston won yesterday despite a rare bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez is good news. The Red Sox scored all 12 of their runs in the first five innings. They only homered once. This park in Arlington can be kind to hitters and the man starting for Texas tonight, Kolby Allard, knows that all too well as he sports a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three home starts. Rick Porcello is having a bad year for the Red Sox, but the veteran should be able to outpitch the rookie Allard here. Boston has won five of Porcello's last six starts on the road and they've also won the last five times he's gone against the Rangers. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Could this end up being a FIVE-game sweep for the Nationals? (Series wraps up tomorrow) That's looking like more and more of a reality after sweeping yesterday's doubleheader with the Phillies. That result officiall put Washington into the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating Philadelphia. That's a huge motivational edge here as the Nationals try and lock down home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game against whichever team (St. Louis or Milwaukee) doesn't win the Central Division. They currently have a one game edge over Milwaukee in that department entering Wednesday when they look to make it four straight over Philly. They've outscored the Phillies 17-8 in the three games so far and what makes this series result all the more sweeter is that it's come against former teammate Bryce Harper. Anibal Sanchez will get the call for tonight's game. While he's pitched well recently, Sanchez has struggled against the Phillies this year. He's faced them four times and is winless with a 4.22 ERA. The Over is 6-2 in Sanchez's last eight starts overall. Drew Smyly will start here for the Phillies, who are now lame ducks for the final six games. We don't see any reason why Smyly, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for two teams this season (Phillies & Pirates), would come up big in this situation. The Nationals already average 5.5 runs per game at home. Play on OVER Philadelphia-Washington

AAA

This is an 8* on the GIANTS

The Rockies and Giants are both playing out the string. But at least the Giants have some reason to celebrate as they honor departing manager Bruce Bochy, the longest active tenured skipper in the sport. They've also got Madison Bumgarner on the mound and that's a sizable advantage on the field.  It may not have been Bumgarner's best year and his recent results certainly haven't been up to par. But it's still been a decent year overall. Bumgarner has been especially good here at home where he is 6-2 and has a 2.72 ERA/0.92 WHIP. He's made 18 starts total here and the Giants have won 12 of them. The Rockies are not a good road team. Their record away from home is 27-51 and they score a lot less than at Coors Field. The drop is more than two full runs per game. It doesn't help having Jeff Hoffman and his 6.71 ERA/1.62 WHIP on the mound either. It's somewhat shocking how sharp the decline has been for the Rockies this year. It's a 24 win drop, these last six games nothwithstanding. If you're San Francisco, what's not to like about Bumgarner going against this team? Play on SAN FRANCISCO 

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Minnesota is very likely to win the AL Central and go into the playoffs as the "3-seed" (would face either Yankees or Astros in LDS). Detroit has been nowhere near a playoff discussion this season and will soon be done playing games. They are 49.5 games behind the Twins. They have scored 339 fewer runs. No team in baseball has scored fewer runs. That leads us to playing the Under in this divisional matchup. The Tigers have averaged only 2.6 runs/game over the past week and gone five in a row without scoring more than three. That was before Sunday's 6-3 win over the White Sox. If they do have a chance of winning Tuesday, it'll be due to starter Spencer Turnbull. He has been one of the few reliable options in this rotation. Turnbull allowed only one run in his last start - with eight strikeouts and no walks - which ended up being a 2-1 loss in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Turnbull and the Tigers will face Jake Odorizzi. In 11 career starts vs. Detroit, Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Under is 12-3-1 in Odorizzi's past 16 starts overall including the last five on the road. The Under is also 5-1 in the Twins last six series openers. The Under is 6-1-1 the Tigers last eight games overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Detroit

AAA

This is a 9* on TORONTO

We have a record-tying four 100+ loss teams in MLB this year, three of them hailing from the American League. The least surprising member of the quartet would have to be Baltimore, who we won't hesitate to buck here. The Orioles lost 115 games a season ago, so their 51 wins this year actually represent improvement from 2018. Yet there is no denying this remains one of the worst teams in baseball. Toronto has lost 93 games this year, but is actually significantly better than all the 100+ loss teams as well as some of the 90+ loss ones as well. At least if you go by run differential as the Blue Jays have only been outscored by 101 runs this year. That may sound like a lot, but there are actually eight teams across baseball with worse run differentials. Baltimore has been outscored by 264 runs, easily the second worst overall and only ahead of Detroit. For today's series opener, the Blue Jays start Clay Buchholz, who knows the Orioles quite well from spending all that time in Boston. Buchholz actually struggled agianst the O's last week, but the Jays won the game 11-10 and swept the series. Baltimore made an overnight pitching change here going from Dylan Bundy to Chandler Shepard, which is a downgrade based on Shepard's lone appearance, last week vs. the Blue Jays in which he gave up three runs in four innings. The Orioles did win on Sunday, but haven't won two straight since August. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

It's going to be a busy night in Cleveland with both the Browns and Indians hosting big games. With all due respect to the Browns, who are hosting their 1st Sunday night game in 11 years, the Indians' game is much more important to the immediate future of the city. That's because with just seven games to go in the regular season, the Tribe finds itself one game out of the Wild Card. They lost yesterday (9-4 to the Phillies) while the Rays once again beat the Red Sox in extra innings. With only two series remaining after tonight, Cleveland simply cannot afford to fall two games back. They know the Rays next series is against the Yankees, so there's potential to make up some ground there. But first, it's time to handle their own business, which means beating a Phillies team that is basically out of contention at this point. The good news is Cleveland has gone 40-23 this year off a loss. More good news: their starter Adam Plutko has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts as he's allowed just two runs in each. Plutko also has a 0.91 WHIP at home. The team is 6-2 when he starts at Progressive Field. Phillies starter Velasquez may also have a 3-0 TSR in his last three starts, but a big difference is a 1.86 WHIP in them. So the Phillies have been awfully lucky to win those games. The fact that this is Cleveland's home finale adds to the motivation. The Phillies have a losing road record on the year and we can't see them winning two straight here. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND

It seems as if none of the three teams in the AL Wild Card chase are ever going to lose. Oakland has won 9 of 10. Two games behind the A's, fighting for the final spot, are Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Rays are 10-4 their last 14 games while the Indians (who we'll be playing here) have won 9 of 11. The Tribe's latest win came last night over the Phillies, 5-2, as they jumped on Drew Smyly early. Tonight, they are likely to do the same to Jason Vargas, who has struggled since making the jump from New York to Philly. Vargas' ERA and WHIP his last three starts are 6.35 and 1.50 respectively. No matter which team he was with, the road has always been a problem as his ERA is 5.06 there. Vargas has lasted just three innings his past two starts. Cleveland counters with Plesac, who just turned in a complete game shutout in his last trip to the mound. The team is 8-2 at home this year with him on the mound. While technically still alive for a Wild Card spot in the NL, the Phillies pretty much know their fate is sealed at this point as they are five games back. Truthfully, we never thought they'd get there anyway. An odd but perhaps useful trend here is that the Indians are a perfect 11-0 this season at home when the total is 10 or 10.5. The total opened at 10 and has since moved to 10.5 for this Interleague matchup. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on TIGERS +1.5

The Tigers made a bit of history last night and it's not the kind they should be proud of as they lost to the Indians for an 18th time this year. No team had ever lost 18 times to a single opponent in a given year before this (Tigers beat the Indians just once). There's the potential for a lot more infamous history to be made here as Detroit has been outscored by 306 runs over the course of the season. Taking them, in any situation, is tough to advise. But we will today as you can grab the +1.5 at a relatively decent price going against a White Sox team that is also among the worst in the league. Sure, the White Sox aren't as bad as the Tigers. But their own -141 scoring differential is bottom six in baseball and the idea of them winning a road game by multiple runs is not something you should ever bank on, even when matched up with the Tigers. They're sending a pitcher (Dylan Cease) with a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to the mound tonight. Normally, that would be an easy fade on the money line, but we do have to be cautious about who Detroit has pitching too as Jordan Zimmerman is 1-11. But Zimmerman has pitched pretty decent for someone with that kind of record, at least in the second half, as he has a 1.11 WHIP his last seven starts. Play DETROIT on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 10* play on the CUBS

The Cubs badly need this game as they've fallen behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race (one game). Were they to miss out on the playoffs, and the Brewers get in, it would upset many in the analytics community considering the Cubs have a +114 run differential on the year (2nd best in the whole National League) while Milwaukee is -21. But the Brewers continue to take advantage of an advantageous schedule while the Cubs have now lost three straight home games, two to the Reds and then yesterday in extra innings to the first place Cardinals. We're not used to seeing the Cubs drop games in Wrigley; their 51 home victories are 4th most in baseball. Because of an injury to Cole Hamels, he's being skipped in the rotation here and Alec Mills will start in his place. Friday will mark just the third start for Mills and first since July. (He's been working out of the bullpen ever since). His first two starts were fine as he gave up five runs in 10 1/3 innings. He had 11 strikeouts and just two walks. But the "real story" here is the poor history that Cardinals starter Michael Wacha has with the Cubs. In 19 career appearances against them, Wacha's ERA is 6.68. He hasn't pitched that well on the road either, no matter whom he's facing, as his record is 4-8 with a 1.52 WHIP. St. Louis had been 0-6 here in Chicago prior to winning yesterday. You have to think the Cubs bounce back here. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 7* play on BOSTON

This series has drawn attention due to the fact the Giants have Mike Yazstremski on their roster, the grandson of legendary Boston Hall of Famer Carl Yazstremski. There must be something about the last name and Fenway Park because the Giants have surprisingly won the first two games of this series. It was a one-run win, 7-6 in 15 innings, on Tuesday. That has been the Giants "M.O." in 2019 as their a MLB-best 37-15 in one-run games. It was a far more decisive win last night, 11-3, as they scored seven runs in the final two innings. The Giants success in one-run games this year has masked that this really isn't a very good team as they've still been outscored by 69 runs. For Boston, the playoffs are basically no longer possible, but winning a home game should be a motivating factor. They've lost five in a row at Fenway Park, which you don't see very often. They've got to face Madison Bumgarner this afternoon, a challenge for sure, but he's failed to beat Boston in two previous tries. The Giants have also lost Bumgarner's last two starts, both at home, to last place teams (Miami, Pittsburgh). Before those, he gave up six runs in a loss at St. Louis. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched masterfully in his last start for Boston, striking out 12 and giving up just one run and four hits in a 2-1 Red Sox win in Philadelphia. That improved his team start record to 23-8 this season. Rodriguez also can claim to have allowed 0 or 1 runs five of his last six starts. Red Sox avoid the sweep here. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

The Brewers continue to handle their business as they've beaten the Padres two straight, pulling them into a tie for the Wild Card with the Cubs. Milwaukee was actually swept out in San Diego earlier in the year, but facing the Padres now has proven advantageous as not only do they have the homefield advantage, they're the only motivated side in this matchup. San Diego has lost six in a row now with three of those losses seeing them score just one run and the other three seeing them give up at least 10. That's a bad combo. Two of the games where they scored only one run have come here in this series and there's really no reason to expect they'll perform any better at the plate tonight. Milwaukee is 11-1 in its last 12 games as they've gotten hot at the perfect time. The starter for tonight, Adrian Houser, was the one who started the only loss in the L12 games. However, he should rebound nicely here vs. a team that's hitting only .205 in the last week. Houser has a 3.12 ERA his previous seven starts. As for Padres starter Dinelson Lamet, you're looking at an 0-4 team start record his last four outings. The Padres have also lost eight straight road games. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

We used the Mets yesterday and that worked out well as they were able to stay relevant in the Wild Card by beating Colorado 6-1. The Rockies had previous won six of seven, but it's still been a bad year, one that likely ends with them in last place in the NL West. Facing a team that has nothing left to play for, the Mets have to take advantage here as their playoff hopes remain slim. It's a four game deficit that they're still facing with only 11 left to play. You have to like that they have Noah Syndergaard pitching today. He's had Colorado's number in the past, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, though none of them have come here at Coors Field. A big key here is that Wilson Ramos will NOT catch for Syndergaard. In the 16 starts with Ramos as catcher, Syndergaard's ERA is 5.20. In the other 11, with either Nido or Rivera behind the plate, that number drops to 2.22. Just as encouraging as having Syndergaard pitching for the Mets is who will be starting opposite him for the Rockies. Jeff Hoffman just hasn't been very good. He has a 7.03 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 12 starts, one of which was against the Mets and he gave up six runs. Coincidentally, Syndergaard pitched that game for the Mets, a 6-1 win. The Mets offense should continue to take advantage of the opportunities provided by Coors Field and Syndegaard should handle the Rockies in short order. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

The Cardinals now have two teams hot on their heels as the Brewers and Cubs are both just two games back in the NL Central race. After scoring just two runs in each of the first two games here vs. Washington, you can imagine that Max Scherzer is the last sight they wanted to see when they look out at the mound today. Scherzer is from St. Louis and has pitched very well here at Busch Stadium in the past. Four starts here have resulted in a 1.44 ERA and a 35-4 strikeout to walk ratio. He's allowed just four runs in 25 innings. While he missed about a month on the DL, Scherzer has an 11-2 team start record since the start of June. He's also gone 7-1 in 11 road starts this year with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Those are all obviously outstanding numbers and what you want to see when taking the Nationals this afternoon. That's the call here as despite Adam Wainwright's own recent pitching prowess, we don't see St. Louis being able to hang with the favored Nats in this spot. Only a handful of teams have a better scoring margin on the road than Washington, all of them first place teams. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

From July 25th until August 10th, the Mets played 16 games. They won 15 of them. That run had them thinking Wild Card, but that is now getting more and more unlikely. Since that 15-1 run, the team has basically played .500 ball and is actually now one game under after last night's loss to Colorado. Of course, during that 15-1 run, the Mets were playing nothing but bad teams. Colorado is a bad team as they are in last place in the NL West with a 66-85 record, despite a four-game win streak. One big inning saved the Rockies last night as they scored six runs in the bottom half of the fourth. Don't look for that to happen again though. Not against Marcus Stroman, who they'll face tonight at Coors Field. Stroman has made eight starts for the Mets. The team has gone 5-3 in them and he was completely dominant last Thursday in an 11-1 win over the Diamondbacks. In that start, Stroman allowed just one run and four hits. He has previously pitched here at Coors this season, back on June 1st when he was still with the Blue Jays. He pitched well, giving up just three earned runs. We shouldn't have to tell you that the Rockies are giving up a major league worst 6.9 runs/game at home. Tonight's starter Tim Melville has negatively impacted that number in limited time, giving up nine runs in his last five innings pitched here. He has an ugly 9.28 ERA and 2.06 WHIP his last three starts overall. The Mets bounce back with a win on Tuesday. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is a 6* play on Atlanta

Atlanta has already assured itself a spot in the playoffs. Now all that's left to do is to nail down the NL East for a second year in a row and possibly catch the Dodgers for homefield advantage. They certainly would appear to have a favorable matchup with the Phillies on Tuesday as they look to achieve those goals. Philadelphia is technically still alive for the Wild Card, but things are now looking rather bleak after a losing homestand left them 4.5 games back and needing to jump two teams. Making matters worse is that Vince Velasquez has to face the Braves tonight. Velasquez has never beaten Atlanta in 10 career starts. He's 0-6 with a 5.36 ERA against them. His one start vs. the Braves in 2019 yielded four runs as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has not only been lights out lately for the Braves, he's had tremendous success when facing Philly. Five career starts against the Phillies have produced a 1.42 ERA for Keuchel. His overall results of late have been even more impressive. His last six starts have all been wins for the Braves (with Keuchel going 5-0 with one no decision) and he has a 0.97 ERA during that time. He's allowed just four runs in 37 innings and has 35 strikeouts. Tonight's pitching matchup totally favors the Braves and all other signs point to them winning as well. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* play on BALTIMORE

The Orioles being both favored and endorsed by us is a rare situation, but it happens here as they face the one team that has a worse record. That Baltimore is favored like this ON THE ROAD speaks volumes on the current state of baseball in Detroit. The Tigers are 44-104 (Orioles are 49-100) and have been outscored by almost 300 runs this season, which would be a new record for futility. Detroit is 4-19 as a home dog of +125 to +175 among other things. They're being outscored by 2.7 runs/game at home! This line also speaks to the pitching matchup as John Means will go for the Orioles. The one reliable starter in the rotation, Means has given up 2 ER or less in five straight starts. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in the last three. For what it's worth, Baltimore did win the only time this year that they were road favorites of -125 to -175 ... that was yesterday's 8-2 win here in Detroit! Look for them to make it three of four over the Tigers as their hitters should have a field day going against struggling Tigers starter Alexander, who has been hit hard his last three starts, all of which are losses. He has allowed 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings and also given up 27 hits. If there ever was a spot to like Baltimore, it would be this game. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 9* play on the LA DODGERS

The Dodgers have already clinched the division, now it's just a matter of earning home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. They're already well on their way on the National League side, holding a three game advantage over the Braves. But they're behind both the Yankees and Astros of the American League for the best overall record in baseball. A 3-0 loss to the Mets yesterday didn't help matters, but we can't see them losing two in a row. The Mets are of course just trying to get into the playoffs as they are three back of the Wild Card currently. A big key in earning the win last night was having Jacob deGrom starting. Tonight, the Mets are left with Zach Wheeler, who isn't a bad pitcher by any means. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to match Walker Buehler, who is in the top 10 among NL starters in wins (6th), strikeouts (10th) and ERA (8th). He's 1st with a 1.02 WHIP. In three of his last four starts, Buehler has not allowed a single run (4 of his L6 as well). Over his last seven starts, you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Wheeler just can't match those numbers even though he's allowed only 1 ER in three straight starts with the team winning all three times. The Dodgers are 34-19 off a loss this year, including 4-1 if they were shutout. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

One could argue that the Nationals are having every bit the good season that the Braves are. After all, they have a slightly better run differential than Atlanta. Washington has gone 62-34 overall since May 24th. However, they have had one heck of a problem beating their division rival and that problem continued last night with a 5-0 shutout loss. That was the sixth time in the last seven meetings they lost to the Braves. It was also the eighth time the Nats have been shutout this year. Now 9.5 games back, there's virtually zero shot Washington can catch Atlanta in the division, but they still lead the Wild Card and preserving that advantage is priority number one right now. Despite the stakes being so high for both teams, they are starting pitchers that are question marks this afternoon. Mike Foltynewicz has pitched well since a stint in the minors, but it was Washington that sent him there when they scored eight runs on him, in only four innings, back in late June. Austin Voth is the starter for the Nationals. This is only his 2nd time starting since July. The first was against these Braves last Saturday. He gave up two solo home runs in four innings. We expect him to pitch better at home this time. The Nationals are also 7-3 off their last 10 losses. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on SEATTLE

It's not all too often you'll find the Mariners favored on the moneyline, but when the White Sox come to town, the oddsmakers will have to oblige. Though we're hesitant to take any favorite that's dropped seven of nine, let alone one that's in last place, this is the time to make an exception. Chicago is a team that's much worse than most realize. They've scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this year and as a result have been outscored by 140 runs. Why is that significant? Well, a team with a -140 run differential at this point of the season is "expected" to have only 58 wins. The White Sox are 64-82. Not a good record, but it should be worse. That six-game gap between how many they've actually won and what run differential says they should have won is actually tied the second largest in baseball. Seattle has been every bit as bad this year, but gets a break tonight in facing Dylan Covey. It's not just that the White Sox have lost Covey's last five starts or that he has a 8.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP for the year (1-7 in 11 starts overall). In his last three starts, Covey has been clobbered to the tune of a 17.65 ERA and 2.31 WHIP! He's given up 17 runs in just over eight innings, including 12 his last 2 2/3. By comparison, Kikuchi is "Cy Young" for Seattle as he allowed just one run his last start. Chicago lost as a favorite each of the last two days, to the Royals no less, so we have every reason to doubt them here as underdogs. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON 

If there was any doubt that the Red Sox playoff hopes were dead and buried, that was put to rest this week in Toronto where the reigning World Champs have lost two in a row, both as favorites. The losing streak has now hit five in a row and they are 10 games back of the Wild Card. In other words, "there's always next year!" But there's "always tomorrow" too and we do see Boston avoiding the sweep tonight. Making what has happened to the Red Sox in this series all the more embarrassing is that the Blue Jays had lost six in a row coming in. It was an 8-0 shutout Wednesday, but the good news there is that Toronto is just 1-5 after a shutout win this year. The Jays are hitting just .228 at home this year. Despite the fact they are going to miss the playoffs, Boston still has a +76 run differential, which is quite good. A "X-factor" in tonight's game is Red Sox starter Jhoulys Chacin, who Toronto has never faced as he'd always pitched in the National League before coming to Boston. Chacin has thrown three scoreless innings so far for the Sox, in two appearances, both against the Yankees. One was a start and he was perfect in two innings. Clay Buchholz starts for Toronto against his former team and his time has passed. He has just one win and a 5.31 ERA in eight starts. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI +1.5

The Marlins have not won a game in this series, which wraps up early Thursday afternoon. We played Milwaukee in one of the previous three games (Tuesday), but that was before they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury. Last night, they were able to win the first game without Yelich, but it wasn't easy as they needed a tie-breaking 2-run home run from Mike Moustakas in the top of the ninth. It was the Brewers sixth victory in a row. But coming back and winning a day game is going to be tough, even though their opponent is having a poor season. The good news here for Miami is that starter Caleb Smith pitches a lot better at home. He has a 3.19 ERA in 12 starts at Marlins Park and the team's record is 7-5! His last start was a great one as he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball. Despite what's gone down in this series so far, Milwaukee has not been a particularly good road team this year. They have a losing record away from Miller Park and have swept only two road series all year. One was back in April vs. Cincinnati, the other last month in Pittsburgh. But both series were only three games. Gio Gonzalez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for Milwaukee his last three starts. Play MIAMI on the RUN LINE +1.5 

AAA

This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

The Reds didn't come through for us last night, but it's not as if it was a bad call. They led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but unfortunately that's when a Kyle Seager home run drastically altered the game. Seattle won 4-3, despite only four hits for the game. Betting against the Mariners here seems logical. It's been almost a month since they won two straight games. They'd lost six straight going into yesterday, including a humiliating 21-1 result on Sunday at the hands of Houston. Cincinnati isn't Houston, but they are a team that ranks in the top eight in all of baseball in runs allowed. Trevor Bauer took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning last night, which makes the final result all the more disappointing. Tonight it'll be Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has won five straight decisions and though he didn't win either of his last two, he allowed just 1 ER in 12+ innings. Gray also is 5-2 lifetime vs. Seattle with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts. Can't say we think much of Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a total of 11 runs his last two starts. The team has lost five of his last seven starts. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

Washington had been red hot before running into Atlanta last weekend. They lost three of four games in that series, all but cooking their chances of catching the Braves in the NL East. Still, they're in the driver's seat for the Wild Card, but losing 5-0 to the Twins Tuesday night certainly didn't help the cause. We look for the Nationals to bounce back from that defeat as they send Stephen Strasburg to the mound tonight. Strasburg has been quite good of late, no surprise there. He has allowed a total of just five runs in his last four starts, which have spanned 27 innings. He didn't allow any runs in two of the four. Note that Minnesota was scoreless until the 7th inning last night and didn't even get a hit until the 5th. So this matchup sets up well for Strasburg. He's being opposed here by Martin Perez and unlike Jose Berrios last night, we don't feel Perez is up to the challenge. He did pitch shockingly well vs. Boston last week. But in his start before that one, he was tagged for eight runs by Detroit. Minnesota is only hitting .199 over the past week and that's a problem when facing Strasburg. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on the CUBS

We played the Cubs Monday night as they rolled to 10-2 win here in San Diego. We'll go with them again Tuesday. Yes, the Cubs have had all sorts of problems winning on the road this year (road record is 30-43) and that's why they are no sure thing right now to make the playoffs. But winning in San Diego ought not to be terribly difficult. Obviously, the Cubs made it look easy last night. With some key injuries to their everyday lineup, Nico Hoerner stepped up and delivered three hits and four RBI's, the second Cubs player since 1920 to do so in his MLB debut. Tonight, the team can likely lean on starter Jose Quintana. Though he allowed two home runs in his last start, Quintana still got the win and is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA/1.06 WHIP his last seven outings. He's also 9-1 over his last 12 starts. The Padres go with Bolanos, who just made his MLB debut last week. It was a tough loss as Bolanos only gave up two runs. But his offense scored only one run. That's par for the course as the Padres have scored only 11 runs in the last six games, never eclipsing three in any one game. The Cubs badly need to rack up some victories and this should be an easy one. Play on CHICAGO CUBS

AAA

This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI

A seven-game homestand didn't go the way the Reds had hoped as they finished with a 3-4 record. But Seattle's just completed road trip was far worse. It ended with six straight losses, including a humiliating 21-1 defeat on Sunday (to the Astros), the punctuation mark on what has been a terrible season. So even though they're now the road team and the Mariners are at home, the Reds should win easily here. Trevor Bauer hasn't pitched as well as they'd hoped, but is still a better option than what Seattle will be sending out to the mound. Justus Sheffield has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three starts, even though he just threw five scoreless innings in his last one. That should tell you how bad the first two were. The Mariners are just 45-84 their last 129 games. Bauer has a long history of facing them. Not only did Seattle lose 21-1 on Sunday, they finished with only one hit! It was as bad a loss as any team has taken this MLB season. Seattle is just 4-10 vs. the National League and while Cincinnati doesn't have the best road record, they are 5-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 7* play on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee didn't have a hard time beating Miami last night. They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and when all was said and done, it was an 8-3 victory, which keeps them two back of the Wild Card. Tuesday should be a similarly easy win for the Brewers. Miami, who often struggles to score runs (last in NL), wasted a golden opportunity last night. They had the bases loaded four times and still managed to score only three runs. It's unlikely they have as many total bases in tonight's game. This is a big revenge spot for Brewers starter Chase Anderson as the last time he faced the Marlins, his team lost 16-0, at home! But Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in four previous starts here in Miami. The Brewers have now won four in a row and are the only team in this matchup with something to play for. The Marlins go with Hernandez on Tuesday. He's allowed 9 runs in 9 innings his last two starts. Both were on the road. While a better pitcher at home, the team is just 11-25 as a home dog of +125 to +175. The Marlins have the worst record and run differential in the National League. In a tight playoff race, the Brewers should be thankful to be playing them right now and will take full advantage of the opportunity. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the CUBS

If the Cubs ultimately end up missing the playoffs, the blame will be squarely placed on their poor road record, which is now 29-42 after they dropped three of four over the weekend in Milwaukee. They lost the last three days, so there's a real sense of urgency heading into this series opener with San Diego. The Padres are not a good team and frankly, the Cubs should beat them with ease. Yes, the Padres did win both Saturday and Sunday against the Rockies. But in the last five games they've scored a grand total of nine runs. The two starting pitchers for Monday are very much trending in different directions with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks sporting a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Since the All Star Break, he's given up two runs or less in 8 of 10 starts. Hendricks also has a 5-2 career record vs. San Diego with a 2.98 ERA. The Padres Cal Quantrill has an 0-3 TSR his last three starts with an 11.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Despite the injuries, if the Cubs can't win this one, then there's some real trouble in Wrigleyville as several teams are hot on their heels for that final Wild Card spot. San Diego is 14-33 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the last three seasons. Play on CHICAGO CUBS

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Indians were able to win the weekend, taking three of three from the Twins in Minnesota. But they are still the odd team out when it comes to a tight three-team race for the Wild Card in the American League. They are 1.5 games back of Oakland entering Monday and 2.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The A's are in Houston to start the week, which will be a tough series for them and that means Cleveland is going to need to make up some ground here in Los Angeles. Monday's starter will be Shane Bieber and he should hold up his end of the bargain. Bieber has been great on the road this year, owning a 2.85 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Going back to a complete game one-hitter he threw against Toronto on 7.24, Bieber has allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his last nine starts. But we're not sure the Cleveland offense can be trusted in this spot. The Indians last four games have all gone Under. Patrick Sandoval remains winless in five starts for the Angels, who are out of playoff contention, but he's given up just one run and two hits his last two times out. This has all the making of a low-scoring affair with major injuries affecting both lineups. The Indians are without Naquin and Ramirez while the Angels could be without Mike Trout. Bieber has started twice against the Angels in his career and has won both times, producing a 2.45 ERA. The Under is 10-2-1 in Bieber's 13 starts on the road this season. Play UNDER Cleveland-LA Angels

AAA

This is an 8* play on the METS

It wasn't easy, but the Mets beat the Phillies last night, 5-4, by drawing a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. They probably feel like it shouldn't have needed to get to that point as they led 4-2 going into the ninth, but closed Edwin Diaz failed to protect that lead. Ultimately though, things ended up going just as the Mets had hoped. Now, they look to make it four wins in five tries over the Phillies in the last two weeks and as an added bonus, they'll move ahead of them in the standings with a win here. Yes, these teams are now tied with matching 72-68 records. But the Phillies have lost three straight while the Mets have won five of their last seven. The Mets had a chance to sweep Philly last Sunday night with Marcus Stroman on the mound and failed. Stroman gets his second crack at the Phillies tonight. He actually pitched well last weekend, allowing just two runs in six innings. We like him a lot better than Drew Smyly, who has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this season. It was a better pitcher (Eflin) that Stroman was up against last Sunday. The Mets seemingly have the momentum right now and are 9-3 their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* play on the ANGELS

The Angels were able to come from behind and "steal one" from the White Sox last night, which has them in an excellent position to win two straight here in Chicago. LA came into this series in pretty rough shape as they'd just been swept in Oakland to fall to a season-low 11 games below .500. They found themselves down early to the White Sox last night and they were facing a 4-1 deficit as last as the seventh inning. But they were able to storm back against the embattled White Sox bullpen for the 5-4 victory. They were underdogs on the money line last night, but that's changed for tonight, likely due to the starting pitching matchup. Friday, they had to face the White Sox best pitcher, Lucas Giolito. Tonight it's Dylan Covey, who is not having a good season at all. Covey is 1-6 in 10 starts and has a 7.17 ERA/1.57 WHIP. The White Sox have lost his last four starts and he has a 21.59 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in the last three (no joke!). Andrew Heaney has done a pretty good job pitching for the Angels of late with a 2.37 ERA his last three starts. Back in July, he held Chicago to three runs in seven innings. Play on LA ANGELS

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO

All is not well in Colorado right now as the Rockies are on a season-worst nine game losing streak. Offensively, they are unlikely to turn things around, at least while still on the road. Just expect an automatic decline in runs from them outside Coors Field. This season has seen them score 6.2 runs/game at home and only 4.3 on the road. We have little positives to report from the pitching department as well. During this nine-game slide, there have been four times where the Rockies have given up 10 or more runs. One of those was the last time Tim Melville pitched, an 11-4 loss to the Pirates. San Diego probably won't need to score much to win tonight. Lamet had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also held the Rockies to two runs and three hits the last time he faced them. The Padres were also swept in their last series (by Arizona), but that was on the road. At home, better results should be expected. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on the WHITE SOX

The White Sox have the pitching edge tonight and that alone should be enough to defeat the floundering Angels at home. LA comes in on four-game losing streak as they were just swept up in Oakland. That has them 11 games below .500, something we have not seen from them in three years. Compounding problems is they have to face Lucas Giolito tonight. Giolito has been Chicago's best pitcher in 2019. They are 16-11 when he pitches and his individual numbers indicate he's probably due a better record than that. The last three have seen Giolito turn in a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP! Opposing him will be Dillon Peters, whose last three starts have been quite the opposite (7.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). It is very unlikely that Peters can keep his team in this one. While it's not often Chicago is favored like this, they are 9-2 at -125 to -175 this season. They win here. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE

The Orioles aren't favored to win very often, but they are here and we expect them to step up and deliver. Texas did win last night's game, 3-1, but did so despite only five hits in their latest putrid effort at the plate. The last three games have seen the Rangers score only five runs and they've been held to three or less in eight of the last ten ballgames. The Rangers aren't a good road team (29-44), so even though Baltimore isn't very good anywhere, this is a good chance to pick up a rare win. Bundy will start; he's allowed 3 ER or less in five of his previous six outings. The Orioles are a respectable 3-3 in those games including a win as a +155 dog (against Tampa Bay) the last time Bundy started here at Camden Yards. Not sure we've seen enough of Brock Burke to make any definitive conclusions, but the Texas southpaw hasn't gotten much run support and it's hard to imagine him pitching any better than he has in his first three starts. Before last night's win, the Rangers were just 1-6 their last seven games here in Baltimore. Play on BALTIMORE

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON -1.5 (Run Line)

Believe it or not, but there was a time early in the season when Seattle was ahead of Houston in the American League West standings. The Mariners started 13-2 out of the gate while Houston was only 10-5 through its first 15 games. Things have obviously gone quite differently since then. Seattle is just 45-80 since while Houston has gone 80-45, leading to a 32 game gap in the standings entering this series. We expect things to go very well on Friday for the Astros, so much so that we'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line here. Wade Miley, who has a 20-8 team start record, gets the nod tonight. He has a 3.86 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year which includes a win the last time he faced them. Miley has won seven straight decisions coming into tonight. Remember that Houston still has a lot to play for, namely home field advantage. Seattle has nothing left to play for and is an abysmal 1-12 vs. the Astros this year. Their starter for Friday, Marco Gonzales, has really struggled against Houston in his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA. Houston is 51-17 at home and 16-3 after an off day. The Mariners a 4-12 as road dogs of +175 to +250. Should be a very easy win for the home team in this one. Play HOUSTON -1.5 on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND

The weekend saw the A's lose twice in the final at-bat at Yankee Stadium. Coming off that, they needed to rebound and that's exactly what they did Tuesday with a 7-5 win over the Angels. That result pulls them into a tie with Cleveland for the second Wild Card, though technically they are percentage points ahead. There's no time to rest on their laurels, however. One positive is the A's have four games in hand compared to the team that leads the Wild Card, Tampa Bay, and there's only a one-game difference right now between the Rays and A's/Indians. We expect Oakland to win again tonight. Not only are the Angels just 3-14 their last 17 road games, they've also fallen to a season-worst nine games under .500. They haven't been this far below .500 since finishing the 2016 season at 74-88. Both bullpens were called upon early in last night's game. That puts a greater onus on the two starters for Wednesday and in that regard it's advantage A's as Tanner Roark (26 starts in '19) is far more battle-tested in the role than the Angels' Patrick Sandoval (just 4 starts). Sandoval, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, has really struggled. His only two prior road starts saw him give up 9 runs in 9 innings. The A's need this one too badly to lose and the Angels are struggling too much to win. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 8* on the OVER

The Nationals absolutely stunned the Mets last night, scoring seven times in the bottom of the ninth to win 11-10. So much for a low-scoring game with deGrom and Scherzer as the two starting pitchers. Now, to be fair, over half the total runs scored in the game came in the 9th inning. (The Mets actually scored five in the top half!) and the game was only 4-2 heading into the 8th. While still technically in playoff contention, last night's result had the vibe of a "season-killer" for the Mets. As for the total, it won't be the likes of deGrom or Scherzer starting tonight, but rather Wheeler and Sanchez instead. Both have seen each of their last three starts go Over. In the case of Sanchez, it's four straight. We obviously know what both bullpens are "capable of" here. As bad as the Mets bullpen was last night, Nationals' relievers actually have the lowest ERA in the National League (5.95). (The Mets are 3rd worst). Let's also not forget what Washington has done at the plate over the last few weeks. Last night was the 5th time they went for 11+ runs since August 14th. They've scored at least seven runs in 15 of their last 21 games, a stretch which has seen them go 17-4. Expect a high-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. Play OVER Mets-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the NATS

With a pitching matchup like deGrom vs. Scherzer, it might seem tough to pick a side, but the Nationals are too hot to be denied right now. This past weekend, they swept the Marlins, scoring 23 runs in the process. That may not sound all that impressive, but it ran their record to 19-5 over the last 24 games. Now they did lose here to the Mets last night, 7-3. But that was when the pitching matchup was decidedly in the Mets favor. It's also been nearly a month since Washington last lost back to back games. The Mets were once hot too, but that's since subsided with them losing 7 of their last 10. They are actually just 10-17 when deGrom starts this year, shocking, but nothing new as last year they were 14-18 with him on the mound. Scherzer has yet to go more than 4 1/3 innings since returning from injury (he's made two starts). But expect him to be "full systems go" tonight. While the Mets have won both deGrom vs. Scherzer matchups this season, those came before Memorial Day.Washington is a decidedly better team right now. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on the REDS

The Reds fell to the Phillies 7-1 here at home on Labor Day, but that won't be happening again today. In fact, we're willing to bet on the reverse result taking place. Now the Reds did make an overnight pitching change here to Lucas Sims, who will go in place of the injured Alex Wood (back issues). That's actually an upgrade as Wood has really struggled, perhaps directly due to those lingering back issues. Sims has only made two spot starts this year, two months apart (May and July) and both coming against Milwaukee. All of the Phillies runs yesterday came on home runs as they hit four total. Look for their to be a "power outage" today, however. Philly is lucky to even be in playoff contention. They've given up more runs than they have scored while the same can NOT be said for the Reds, even though they're the team 10 games under .500. The Phillies starter for tonight is Vince Velasquez and he has an 8.53 ERA his past three starts and his last one on the road saw him give up seven runs to a Miami team that is 29th in the league in scoring. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Cleveland has sustained some serious attrition over the last week or so, losing three key hitters from the everyday lineup. They are Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis. The former two are going to be out for an extended period of time with Naquin done for the year. These injuries have come at a most inopportune time for the Indians as they are in a tight race for the Wild Card. Getting swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay was a worst case scenario. But thankfully they get to play the White Sox this week. There is one key return for Cleveland and that's Carlos Carrasco, who was diagnosed with Leukemia and will now pitch in a relief role. Chicago has lost six in a row. So this should be a bounce back game for the Indians. But bet the Over instead. Even with the injuries, Cleveland's lineup should have its way with Ross Detweiler, who has been pretty bad this year. He gave up five runs in four innings his last start. Monday's starter for the Indians, Aaron Civale, has looked great. But we don't think he'll be able to maintain his current numbers. The Over is 8-2-2 in Chicago's last 12 road games as they'd given up 31 runs in the three games before yesterday's 5-3 loss. The Over is also 10-3 in the Indians last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play OVER Chicago-Cleveland

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

Arizona had won six in a row before falling in extra innings Sunday. Despite the losing streak coming to an end yesterday, nearly sweeping a four-game series from the Dodgers is impressive. Monday sees the Dbax welcoming in the Padres, who are obviously a much weaker opponent, though San Diego also won 3 of 4 in its last series (against the Giants). We look for Monday's game to be pretty low scoring. The last series between the teams, a Padres sweep, resulted in all Unders as well. It's Cal Quantrill going for San Diego today. After being roughed up in his most recent start, we look for him to bounce back. It was the Dodgers that roughed Quantrill up, which happens to a lot of pitchers. His last seven starts have seen the Under go 5-2 as his ERA and WHIP are 3.69 and 1.08. He's held opponents to a .210 batting average during that time as well. His WHIP on the road this season is 1.05.  But the problem for Quantrill is that before yesterday's 8-4 win, the most runs scored in any game by the Padres in the last two weeks was 5. That's music to the ears of Arizona starter Leake, but what's not is that his team scores fewer runs at home than on the road. Leake does have a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home, however. He's coming off a quality start in San Francisco. Play UNDER San Diego-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on the METS

The Mets are going for the sweep here and we like them to pull it off behind recent addition Marcus Stroman. Since coming over from Toronto, Stroman has started five times for his new team. The Mets have won four of those games, the lone loss coming his last start, which was against the Cubs. Pitching against these weaker National League lineups should certainly benefit Stroman after he used to have to regularly go up against the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Three career starts against the Phillies have brought 1.86 ERA for Stroman. The Phillies are 25-25 their last 50 games, but have not had a win streak of more than two games during that time. We don't like Zach Eflin starting in this spot. Before emerging victorious on August 24th (his last start), he'd gone 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in 10 appearances. The Mets are Eflin's most common opponent (nine career starts) and he has a 6.00 ERA. Eflin's last two starts at home were both terrible as he lasted a combined 6 1/3 innings and allowed 10 runs in one of them. We've been waiting for the Mets to pass the Phillies into third place in the NL East and that finally happens tonight. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Taking the Over in a game that involves Miami might sound dicey, but Washington can do all the heavy lifting if need be in this one. The Nationals have gotten ridiculously hot at just the right time as they've gone 15-3 in the last 18 games. Carrying them has been an offense that has scored seven or more runs 14 times during that stretch! They've scored 7 runs in both games of this series, one a shutout (yesterday) and the other a one-run game (Friday). Expect this one to be more along the lines of the opener even though the Marlins did virtually nothing at the plate in last night's game. The Over is 7-3-2 the past 12 times Miami failed to score more than two runs in its last game. Pat Corbin has had their number this year, but Washington is just 4-6 after a shutout win and their bullpen is still pretty suspect. Caleb Smith has struggled on the road for the Marlins this year and has a 6.32 ERA his past three starts overall. He's given up five runs in each of his last two and that's how many he gave up the last time he started here in D.C. as he lasted only three innings. Play OVER Miami-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

For the second day in a row, the Reds and Cardinals will play a doubleheader. This unusual circumstance was brought on by Friday's rainout and will undoubtedly take a toll on the position players. Yesterday's doubleheader also took a toll on the Reds as they lost both games. The first was a high-scoring affair (10-6) while the second was more in line with what you expect from these two teams (3-2 final). St. Louis won the second game in the final at-bat after holding Cincy to just three hits. Both teams are exceptional at limiting runs as they rank 2nd (Cardinals) and 4th (Reds) in runs allowed among National League teams. Cincinnati definitely has problems scoring, however. They are averaging only 4.4 runs/game. We don't see them getting too many off Miles Mikolas, who starts this first game for the Cardinals. The Under had been 8-3 in his first 11 home starts before the Over hit in the last two. The Under is 8-1-1 in Mikolas last 10 division starts. The Under is also 20-9-1 in the Cardinals last 30 games overall and 29-12 their last 41 home games. While Reds starter Mahle has a shocking 0-11 team start record on the road, the Under is 7-3-1 in those 11 games. The Under is also 20-8-1 the last 29 times the Reds have played a road game against a team with a .600 or better home win percentage. Play UNDER Cincinnati-St. Louis

AAA

This is a 7* play on HOUSTON 

Houston has caught the Yankees for the best record in the American League. It's hard to imagine them not having their way with the Blue Jays this weekend in Toronto. The AL West leaders already got this series off to a positive start by winning 7-4 Friday. The Astros have now won 10 of 12 overall, a nice recovery from a five-game losing streak that preceded this stretch, and send Framber Valdez to the mound today in search of another victory. Certainly not one of the marquee names on the Houston pitching staff, Valdez's numbers aren't exactly what you'd call "good." But the rookie looked a lot better his last time around as he held the Angels to just one run and two hits in what turned out to be an 11-2 Houston win. The Toronto lineup he'll face this afternoon hits just .228 at home. The Blue Jays just don't have enough offense to compete here as Houston is averaging 8.4 runs its last seven games. Clay Buchholz is getting the start for the home team here, just his second time pitching since May. It was a right shoulder injury that kept him out and you have to wonder just how much is left in the tank at this point. Houston is 24-13 in day games this season. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Yankees didn't score many runs last night, just two to be exact, but should do a lot more damage at the plate this afternoon against Homer Bailey, who often struggles on the road. Bailey has a nice 6-2 record since coming over from the Royals, but he actually hasn't pitched all that well for the A's as his ERA in those eight starts is 5.52. As already mentioned, he often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00 and the Over is 7-4. Bailey did pitch pretty well on August 20th against the Yankees, but that was at home. He will once again start opposite Domingo German. German is having a great year record-wise (he's 17-3), but his ERA (4.09) is higher than what you'd typically expect from a pitcher with that kind of record. German gave up six runs when he faced the A's 11 days ago and has never beaten them in three tries, ending up with an ugly 6.91 ERA. In playing the Over here, we have to mention that the Yankees average 5.8 runs/game, 2nd most in the majors. Oakland's scoring average rises on the road to 5.5 runs/game, which is a top five average. The Over is 25-12-1 the last 38 times the Yankees allowed at least five runs in their last game. Play OVER Oakland-New York 

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

The Red Sox took two in Colorado earlier this week, but simply cannot afford to slow down as their chances of returning to the postseason remain tenuous at best. Still 5.5 games out, the reigning World Series Champs have improved their position by winning 9 of 12, but they still need to jump at least two teams. A weekend stay in Los Angeles should be to the Red Sox liking as they traditionally have had their way with the Angels. They haven't visited Anaheim since April of last season, but swept that series and were 6-0 against the Angels overall in 2018. The teams split a four-game series at Fenway Park earlier this month, but Boston dominated in its two wins, one of them coming by a score of 16-4. We can't see anyone making a case for Jose Suarez, who starts for the Angels tonight, having a good outing here. Not only is he 0-3 in his previous three starts, he has a 9.23 ERA and 2.13 WHIP to boot! The Red Sox go with Eovaldi, who is making just his third start since April. A big key for the Red Sox here is their play on the road, which has resulted in a 38-28 record and 5.7 runs/game. That should be enough for Eovaldi as the Angels were just shut out on Wednesday and have only 19 hits in the last four games. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on TEXAS

Texas will look to rebound from a loss in the series opener and we like their chances here vs. Seattle. The Rangers are a much better team at home (38-28 record) than on the road (27-42), despite what transpired last night. Thursday's game saw the Mariners score twice in the top of the ninth to win 5-3. But save for a six-game win streak in late July and a four-game win streak in the middle of August, they have not won back to back games in the second half. The Rangers are having a better season than the Mariners, so it's odd that we don't have to lay a higher price here. They were a much bigger favorite on the money line last night. Starter Kolby Allard is off his best start at the big league level having blanked Chicago for six-plus innings with eight strikeouts. Marco Gonzales is starting for the fifth time this year against Texas tonight. While three of the previous four have gone well, there was one where he allowed eight runs. Seattle is just 15-27 vs. left-handed starters. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES

The Yankees will have revenge on the mind when they take the field Friday night. The A's swept them (out in Oakland) last week, which is the only time New York has been swept this year with the exception of a three-game series in Houston all the way back in early April. At home, the Yankees would appear to have a substantial edge seeing as they've won 49 of 69 games in this park this season including 22 of 26 in the -125 to -175 price range. If that's not enough to convince you, then be aware that Aaron Judge is hitting .383 the last two weeks and he just hit six homers on the recently finished road trip. That trip ended with them sweeping the Mariners and they had Thursday off to prepare for this series. Oakland had to hold off Kansas City yesterday afternoon, a result which was good for us (had the A's), but now they face a scheduling disadvantage. While we do have some concerns about CC Sabathia, the face is Oakland should be more concerned about their starter, Brett Anderson, who has never beaten the Yankees in eight career tries (0-6, 6.86 ERA) and is 1-4 with 4.93 ERA his last six starts overall (1-5 team start record). Play on the YANKEES

AAA

This is a 6* play on the METS

The Mets were jumped on early last night and ended up losing 10-7 to the Cubs. Though it was Noah Syndergaard the Cubs jumped on, don't expect the same to happen with Jacob deGrom pitching Thursday. deGrom has been his usual filthy self for the Mets of late, compiling a 0.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP his past seven starts. He's 3-0 during that time. The Mets really need deGrom to come up big here as they've now lost five straight, putting a severe damper on their playoff hopes. But even though they've won the first two games of this series, don't forget that the Cubs have been a bad road team most of the year. Their record away from Wrigley is only 26-39, including 3-7 as a dog of +125 to +175. The Cubs actually failed to score after the third inning last night after scoring 10 runs against the shocked Syndergaard. That was clearly an anomaly. The Mets nearly came back and won't be facing anything close to a similar deficit here with deGrom pitching. The Mets are 37-27 at home. Jon Lester has a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP for the Cubs his last three starts. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is a 6* play on OAKLAND

We rode Oakland to victory the first two games of this series, including a 19-4 win Monday where they collected season-highs in both runs and hits. It proved prudent to lay off last night as they lost 6-4 to the Royals after twice blowing a two-run lead. Had they won last night, we would have likely again laid off today as it's pretty difficult to sweep a four-game series on the road. But the loss last night opens up a golden opportunity to fire here as the A's certainly are the better team and Kansas City is only 18-33 in day games. Chris Bassitt gets the nod for Oakland. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last five starts. Bassitt has allowed just seven runs total in those last five starts, which have spanned more than 30 innings. So he's in solid form. Can't say the same for Royals starter Glenn Sparkman, who is not only winless his last seven starts (0-4) but has a 7.50 ERA to show for it. Kansas City has won back to back games just once this month and that came at the expense of the Tigers. Oakland is a better team in all facets and should easily rebound from last night's defeat. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the ANGELS

We thought that the Angels were a good play last night and they won 5-2. We think they're an even better play tonight and thus will take them again on the money line. We mentioned going into yesterday's game that the Angels had gone just 7-16 this month and were a season-worst seven games below .500. But it was a good time to buy low as they had revenge, the better starter and home field advantage. All three of those factors remain present Wednesday. In fact, Texas will now be going with an opener for tonight's game, Emmanuel Clase, before going to originally scheduled starter Ariel Jurado. Clase owns a 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 innings and has never "opened" before. Jurado has lost his last four starts and given up 22 runs in the last three. So it almost seems like the Rangers are conceding this one. The Angels Patrick Sandoval is still looking for that first win at the big league level and should not have much trouble with a lineup that has been held to four runs or less in seven of its last eight games. Texas is just 26-42 on the road this year. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

With teams like St. Louis and Washington surging, Philadephia's late season swoon has proven to be ill-timed. They lost 5-4 to the Pirates last night, on an embarrassing error from Rhys Hoskins that led to the game winning run scoring in the top of the ninth. But we don't think beating a last place team at home is asking too much quite frankly and the Phillies did win Monday's game 6-5. Believe it or not, they are still only two games back of the Wild Card. So if they can win today, they're not out of it by a long shot. Though this series has seen the two Pennsylvania rivals split a couple of one-run decisions, Philadelphia has dominated Pittsburgh the last two years, going 9-2. Wednesday starter Velasquez has struggled of late, even failing to win when being spotted a 7-0 lead in his last start. But the Pirates are not a good team. It's been a disastrous second half of the season for them, going 12-31. Their starter for tonight's game is Mitch Keller and his four road starts have produced an ugly 10.47 ERA and 2.26 WHIP. Velasquez should outpitch him and the Phillies should go onto to win a series they probably should have swept. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

St. Louis has taken the first two games from Milwaukee and goes for the sweep Wednesday afternoon in Miller Park. There is no denying that the Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They're 15-3 their last 18 games and that surge has them in first place in the NL Central. We started this series by cashing the Over Monday as the Cardinals rolled to a 12-2 victory that day. Last night's game was not quite as high scoring with St. Louis coming out ahead by a score of 6-3. For this day game, we like the Under as the Brewers have had some obvious issues scoring of late and they've got to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now, Jack Flaherty. Since the All Star Break, Flaherty has a 0.73 ERA in eight starts. Opponents are hitting just .152 against him in the second half and in August he's 4-0 with a 0.28 ERA and 40 strikeouts! He's allowed a total of one run in his last 32 innings just five runs in his last 56 1/3 IP. In five of his last seven starts, Flaherty has not given up a single run. Giving Milwaukee a chance here is Jordan Lyles. Acquired from Pittsburgh before the trade deadline, Lyles has proven be a solid addition to the starting rotation with a 3-1 record and 2.67 ERA in five outings. He just held Arizona hitless for six innings in his last start. This game has all the makings of a pitchers' duel. Play UNDER St. Louis-Milwaukee

AAA

This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES

Most of the teams in the American League this year are either really good or really bad. These two are the exception to that "rule" as both have hovered around .500 most of the way. That wasn't always the case for Texas, who was a big surprise in the first half, but has gone just 16-26 since the Break. Any chance the Angels had of making the playoffs has gone out the window due to a 7-16 record in August. They are actually a season-worst seven games below .500 right now as they've lost five a row, a streak which began in Texas last week. The only game they won in that four game series in Arlington was with Andrew Heaney on the mound and fortunately he'll be back there tonight. Heaney dominated the Rangers with 14 strikeouts in eight innings and he allowed just one run. Now compare that to Mike Minor, who allowed seven runs in his start in that series, yet Texas still came away with the victory. Minor won't be that lucky this time as the Rangers are 26-41 on the road and see a substantial drop in runs scored. Minor's last start happens to be the only game in the last week where the Rangers scored more than four runs. Heaney has a 0.64 WHIP his last three starts. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

We cashed in big with the A's last night as they produced season-highs in both runs (19) and hits (23). It was a 10-2 game after the third innings and there was no looking back from there. Again, it shouldn't be too difficult to down the floundering Royals tonight. In the analysis for yesterday's game, we discussed the importance of this series from the A's perspective as they probably need to sweep after dropping both games to the Giants over the weekend. Monday was obviously a nice start. For the follow-up Tuesday, Michael Fiers will start. The team has won the last six times he's gotten the baseball and they are 17-9 in all of his starts this year. Kansas City just doesn't have much of an offense as they are averaging only 3.3 runs the last seven games with a .214 average. Mike Montgomery will make his eighth start of the year for them tonight. He was roughed up by Baltimore in his last start, giving up three home runs. Oakland scores more on the road, by the way. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

The A's did not have a good weekend as they dropped both games to the Giants. But far worse than losing some Bay Area pride was the ground lost in the AL Wild Card race as they are now the "odd team out" as in the three-way race with the Rays and Indians (Red Sox also still lurking). Fortunately, Kansas City should make for a good "landing spot" here on Monday. While the Royals did win yesterday, prior to that they'd dropped eight of 10 and had been held to two runs or less in seven of those losses. Ex-Royal Homer Bailey will get the start for Oakland tonight and look for him to take full advantage of being on the "other side." Bailey has been far from dominant in this short stint with the A's, but does own a 0.98 WHIP his last three starts. The A's are actually a better offensive team on the road this year (at least in terms of runs scored per game) and should have little difficulty beating up on KC starter Keller who has a 9-18 team start record this season including 0-5 his last 5. He'll be limited (in terms of innings) moving forward, which isn't exactly a good thing in the short-term for the Royals their bullpen is quite lousy. One final thing to consider is the Royals have lost the last four times they've returned home from a road trip of seven or more days. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

It was a very good weekend for St. Louis, who not only swept a four-game series against the Rockies, but also watched as the Cubs suffered a rare sweep at Wrigley, at the hands of the Nationals. That leaves the Cardinals up 2.5 games in the NL Central, a division race which Milwaukee also remains a part of as they are 4.5 back after taking two of three this weekend from Arizona. The Cardinals and Brewers just met last week in St. Louis with the home team taking two of three. The Cards did a pretty good job in that series in terms of limiting runs, but they are typically less effective in doing so on the road. Just look at tonight's starter Adam Wainwright. He has a 2.67 ERA at home, but a 6.87 ERA on the road. Not to mention a 1.66 WHIP as well. Milwaukee's Gio Gonzales has watched as his last three starts have all gone Over as he has a 4.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP during that time. He'll have to deal with a St. Louis offense that just scored 31 runs in the four-game sweep of the Rockies. Lastly, the Over is 24-9-1 the past 34 times Milwaukee has been coming off a game in which they were held to two runs or fewer. Play on OVER St. Louis-Milwaukee 

AAA

This is an 8* on the DODGERS

Not all records are created equal and in the case of Domingo German's 17-4 team start record and Clayton Kershaw's 18-4 team start record, that is certainly the case. While Kershaw has the kind of individual numbers that you'd typically associate with that kind of success, the same does not hold true for German, most certainly on the road. German has a 5.82 road ERA, yet somehow the Yankees have still won 9 of those 12 games. Kershaw has not lost a decision at Dodgers Stadium with the team winning 12 of his 13 starts here. German gave up six runs in his most recent starts (on the road). Kershaw has allowed just eight total in his last five. Despite going at least six innings in all but three of his 22 starts this year, Kershaw has not thrown more than 101 pitches. That's efficiency. The Dodgers are 52-17 overall at home this year. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA +1.5

We'll grab Arizona on the run line here as they'd won three in a row prior to Wednesday's home loss to Colorado. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had lost three in a row prior to winning Wednesday in a rain-shortened game. The Diamondbacks actually play better on the road as their scoring average jumps to 5.5 runs/game from 4.9 at home. This is a huge series with both teams desperately trying to get into Wild Card position. Run differential says - that despite an inferior record - Arizona has played better this year as they have outscored opponents by 64 runs. Milwaukee has a -35 run differential. Brewers starter Lyles has a 7.23 ERA in 20 previous appearances vs. Arizona. Merrill Kelly was quite decent in his last start for the Dbax, pitching five-plus innings and allowing only one run. Play ARIZONA +1.5 

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Unbelievable! For the second time in 10 days, the Astros suffered a historic loss as a huge favorite. This time it was 2-1 to the Tigers, ironically with Justin Verlander on the mound. Houston closed at -530 on the money line, which was not the first time they've lost at -500 or higher. Ten days ago, it was to Baltimore. Those aren't the Astros only losses as big favorites recently. Because they're always priced so high, there have been four losses total at -350 or higher. Making matters more difficult to swallow from last night is that Detroit had just two hits, but both were home runs. The Tigers still have scored the fewest runs in baseball. We wouldn't expect them to score many tonight either. They're going against Gerrit Cole, who also could end up closing north of -500. Cole has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His last five starts have resulted in just six runs allowed in 34 innings. Good thing for Detroit then that they have Jordan Zimmerman going. Zimmerman threw five shutout innings himself his last time out and allowed only one hit. It'll be another low-scoring affair tonight in Houston as the Astros look to make amends for yet another historical loss. The Under is 11-5-1 the L17 times the Tigers have played the finale of four-game series. Play UNDER Detroit-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5

Don't be fooled by the Indians losing 9-2 to the Mets on Tuesday. An embarrassing error (aren't they all?) in the outfield turned out to open the flood gates for Mets in the sixth innings and they took complete advantage. With the game tied 2-2, Cleveland's Oscar Mercado dropped a fly ball. The next at-bat saw Michael Conforto homer and from there, the Mets would tack on five more runs. Who knows how last night's game would have turned out had Mercado simply made the routine play. It's water under the bridge now, but don't expect Cleveland to forget easily. We can't endorse the Mets going from underdogs last night to favorites here as the price change simply doesn't make sense to us. Marcus Stroman has a 3-0 TSR for the Mets, but his ERA and WHIP in those three starts are 5.17 and 1.85. So it's not like Stroman has pitched well for his new team. Here's a tidbit for you: the Indians have not lost consecutive games by multiple runs this month. With Adam Plutko on the mound Wednesday night, look for that streak to continue as the Tribe either win or lose by just a single run. The offense was just 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position last night and should fare better in that situation tonight as well. Play CLEVELAND (+1.5) on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The Twins can scored with the best of 'em, but they failed to do so Monday night in a surprising 6-4 loss to the White Sox. You'd expect them to bounce back Tuesday, but in Wednesday's early game they are going to have to contend with Chicago's best pitcher. That would be Lucas Giolito. The White Sox may not be a good team, but they are 15-9 this year when Giolito pitches. Though his last start vs. the Twins was not good, we expect Giolito to pitch well here. Back in May, he threw five shutout innings against the Twins, holding them to one hit. While keeping the Twins offense in check might be easier said than done (we still expect Giolito to do so!), Jake Odorizzi should have no such difficulty with the anemic White Sox. Odorizzi's last three starts have all brought victory for the Twins as well as a 3-0 mark with Unders. Odorizzi has faced Chicago only once this year and he held them scoreless for 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one hit (sound familiar?). The Under is 13-3-1 in Odorizzi's last 17 starts vs. the AL Central. It is 13-6 in Giolito's last 19 starts overall. Play UNDER on White Sox/Twins

AAA

This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES

The Yankees and A's haven't met since last year's Wild Card Game, which was of course won by the Yanks 7-2. New York certainly appears to have the more viable path back to the playoffs right now as they have a big lead in the AL East and could end up with homefield advantage. Oakland probably can do no better than a Wild Card, though they did just do themselves a giant favor by taking three of four from Houston this past weekend. But they still have a 7.5 game gap to make up in the AL West. They are just 1.5 game back of the Wild Card. But even after the impressive effort over the weekend, we don't like the A's chances here. Yankees starter German has won seven straight decisions and has an 8-0 team start record his last eight starts. The Yankees are 17-3 in all of his starts this season. Oakland's Homer Bailey has not been nearly as successful, even though he shut the Giants out for seven innings in his last start. Good luck doing that to the Yankees, who are 41-13 vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The New York lineup is averaging 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on the YANKEES

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The Indians split four games with the Yankees in their last series, but aren't out of New York quite yet as now it's time for a pair of games with the Mets. Both the Indians and Mets are among the hottest teams in baseball right now and both can thank easy schedules for that. The Mets are 18-5 the last 23 games, but that includes plenty of games against the Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Cleveland has gone 20-3 vs the Tigers and Royals during a 46-22 overall. run. We like the Indians in this one for a variety of reasons. Let's start with Shane Bieber, who has a 17-8 team start record and 0.99 WHIP. Bieber has allowed just eight runs his last five starts with two complete games. The Mets' Steven Matz has not lost a decision at home this year (5-0 in 9 starts), but has not been as effective as Bieber. The Indians have won seven of their last eight Interleague road games and are 16-5 their last 21 road games, period. They're the better team here. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS

This shapes up to be a very important series in the National League Central as well as the NL playoff race in general. St. Louis will start the week tied with the Cubs for first place in the division. Milwaukee is two games back. The Cardinals had the better weekend as they split in Cincinnati. We used them yesterday as a 10* play and won. The Brewers lost two of three in Washington and got killed Sunday 16-8. In the last two days, the Brewers have allowed 30 runs. Expect them to allow a lot more tonight due to the struggling Zach Davies being on the mound. Davies last three starts have seen him allow 18 runs in just 13 innings. By the way, the last time the Cardinals took on the Brewers, they swept them (back in April). The Brewers struggle on the road. Their road record is 28-34. St. Louis is 34-23 at home and will send out Dakota Hudson. In his last start, Hudson tossed six scoreless innings. The team is 8-3 with him on the mound here at Busch Stadium. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CUBS

We'll keep rolling with the Cubs after they finally won a road game yesterday. It was a 2-0 win at PNC Park. This series will now conclude in nearby Williamsport (PA) as part of the Little League World Series festivities. It's the Sunday night game, set to be broadcast on ESPN. The Cubs have struggled on the road, but perhaps this neutral setting will offset that. Yesterday afternoon, Jon Lester threw six shutout innings and even though the Pirates had the bases loaded three different times, they never got anyone across home plate. Pittsburgh has now lost 26 of 33 games since the All Star Break. The Cubs are now 34-17 in day games this year. While not a day game, the Cubs can lean on Jose Quintana tonight just as they leaned on Lester Saturday. Quintana has a 1.89 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his last three starts. His last start was one of his most dominant. He had 14 strikeouts against Philadelphia, a game the Cubs still lost 4-2. But Pittsburgh is a much weaker opponent than Philadelphia. Look for the Cubs to score more runs tonight as they face a weak starter in Keller, who has a 7.94 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Play on the CUBS 

AAA

This is a 7* play on the ANGELS

The Angels rallied for four runs in the bottom of the seventh last night, ripping victory from the jaws of defeat. Of course, it really shouldn't be that difficult to defeat the White Sox, one of six teams to be outscored by more 100 runs this year. But while the other five all have lost at least 73 games, somehow Chicago has been able "get by" with a 55-67 record. That's not good, but it isn't horrible either. The reality though is that the White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball. The Angels are going for a fourth win in their last five games here and should get it behind starter Griffin Canning, who has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The White Sox remain 28th in MLB in runs scored (third fewest) and starter Dylan Cease has a 5.31 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. With yesterday's win, the Angels improved to an impressiv 59-37 as home favorites of -125 to -175. Look for them to take the series. Play on the ANGELS

AAA