This is an 8* on TB

After sweeping a doubleheader on Thursday, the Rays won again Friday, this time 2-1. They shouldn’t have much of a problem continuing to win this weekend at Camden Yards. We like them on Saturday as they look to strengthen their grip on the AL East. Baltimore is heading in reverse right now. They’ve lost 10 of 12. Yesterday marked the 7th time that the Orioles were held to 1 run or less in that 2-10 stretch, which has effectively ended their season. A big reason why the Rays are winning this division is their 26-12 record against the other four teams. That includes five straight wins over Baltimore. Charlie Morton has yet to win for TB since returning from injury, but he’s only allowed six runs in 11 ⅔ innings. He holds a 3.38 ERA in six career starts vs. Baltimore. Orioles starter Lopez has a 2-2 team start record this year after a leading a shocking 14-1 win over Atlanta earlier in the week. But that was by far his best of the four starts and we see him regressing on Saturday. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

After taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies, the Mets are 1.5 games back of the last playoff spot in the NL. The task of catching up gets significantly harder this weekend with the Braves coming to town. First place Atlanta is one of the best teams in the Senior Circuit and will be starting Max Fried on Friday. Fried has gone 6-0 in his nine starts. The team is 8-1. Fried has a 1.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While the Braves just had a surprisingly disappointing series at Camden Yards, losing 2 of 3, their offense had been red hot prior to that and should have its way tonight with Mets starter Steven Matz. David Peterson was originally going to start here for the Mets, but an overnight change was made to Matz and we like it. Matz is 0-4 this year with a 9.00 ERA. The team has lost all five of his starts. In his last three turns, Matz has given up 19 runs in 11 ⅔ innings. The Mets bullpen has been working overtime of late, which means they may not be of much help either. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* on the WHITE SOX

This shaped up to be a very important series in the AL Central and so far the White Sox have stepped up to answer the challenge. They’ve beaten Minnesota each of the last two nights, 3-1 and 6-2. They now lead the Twins by three games. We like the division leaders to make it three in a row tonight. They’ve got arguably their top pitcher going in Lucas Giolito. The team is 7-3 so far when he starts including 5-0 the last 5 times. One of those was a no-hitter. Giolito hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 starts and has a 1.03 WHIP for the year. The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now as they have won six straight. They are 22-5 their last 27 games and 14-1 L15 at home. They have arguably the best offense in the whole American League. Minnesota has a losing road record and it’s tough to like their chances with Odorizzi starting as he has a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP his previous three turns and this will be his first time starting since August 21st. A tough spot to return. Play on WHITE SOX

AAA

This is an 8* on ATLANTA

Atlanta is still comfortably ahead in the NL East and thus looking like a pretty safe bet to make the postseason. But they suffered an embarrassing 14-1 defeat Monday at the hands of Baltimore. Fortunately, that looks like it was a total anomaly as last night the Braves got back on track with a 4-1 win at Camden Yards. The Orioles have scored 1 run or less in five of the last six games, so don’t go getting fooled by that 14 run effort two days ago. As for the Braves offense, it really got a “shot in the arm” when manager Brian Snitker reshuffled the batting order by stacking it at the top. But all eyes will be on the pitching mound tonight as Cole Hamels makes his 2020 season debut. The starting rotation has been Atlanta’s weakness the last two weeks due to a multitude of injuries. Hamels should do fine against a struggling Baltimore lineup. As for Orioles starter Keegan Akin, he’s facing a lineup that has scored 70 runs its last 10 games. The Braves are 7-2 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 and 33-12 L45 in that role. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* on NY METS

This is a critically important game for the Mets season. While one of only seven National League teams to have scored more runs than they’ve allowed (they share the same +1 run diff as the Phillies), New York is six games below .500 and 2.5 gms out of the playoffs after losing 4-1 to the Phillies last night. But they’ve got the proverbial “ace in the hole” working Wednesday in Jacob deGrom, whose last two starts have produced a 14-1 win and 18-1 win. That’s a combined 32-2 score and the 14-1 win came against Philly! For the year, deGrom has a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Mets are 7-2 in his 9 starts. deGrom has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start. The Mets are 0-3 since deGrom last started a game and just 14-24 in all non-deGrom starts. But this is a real difference maker as deGrom is also 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 career starts for the Phillies. The home team’s lineup is severely depleted right now with Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce and J.T. Realmuto all M.I.A. The remainder of the Phillies lineup just isn’t going to get it done. The Mets had their chances last night at the plate (11 hits), but were 0 for 6 when runners were in scoring position. Look for that to turn around tonight and deGrom takes care of the rest. Play on NY METS

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY

Though they continue to hold serve in the AL East, Tampa Bay has lost four of six - all to last place teams. They could only manage a split of a four-game set with the sorry Red Sox over the weekend and before that lost both games to the Nationals. Tuesday sees them going for revenge against last year’s World Series champs. Obviously, the vibe in the Nation’s Capital right now is much different than it was at this time last year. The Nationals got off to a slow start and never recovered, meaning they won’t even get a chance to defend last year’s WS crown. Their weekend consisted of losing three of four to the Braves. Anibal Sanchez will be on the mound tonight and the Nats have lost his last four road starts. Despite a nice effort last week against the Rays, he still has a 6.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP overall. Tampa Bay goes the “opener” route on Tuesday with John Curtiss. While it’ll be just his 2nd time “opening,” Curtiss has made 13 total appearances this year including one scoreless inning last week vs. the Nationals, who are 1-6 their L7 games at Tropicana Field. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* on ATLANTA

Atlanta continues to pace the NL East, a division which they’ve led most of the way. They won yesterday, for the first time as a road underdog of +125 to +175 (0-7 previously), beating Max Scherzer and Washington 8-4. That was the Braves’ 4th win in 5 games, a stretch which began with a 29-9 victory over Miami. Tonight they’re in Baltimore to face an Orioles team that had a BAD weekend. The O’s got swept in New York, pretty much ending any hope that they could make a Cinderella run to the postseason. They scored a grand total of three runs in the four-game series, so Atlanta’s Touki Toussant has to like his chances in tonight’s start. Touissant should aim to hold Baltimore to three runs or fewer as the Orioles are 0-16 this year when that happens. Looking at Atlanta’s offense, the 4-1 stretch coincides with manager Brian Snitker deciding to “load up” the top of his batting order with Acuna Jr, Freeman & Ozuna in the top three spots. The Braves have scored 7 or more runs four times since that change and 53 runs total. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has made only three starts in 2020 and none have been quality. He gave up five runs in the last one. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

At this time last year, Washington was getting ready to embark on a run that would end with them winning the World Series. Barring a miracle, there will be no repeat of that run here in 2020. The Nationals currently find themselves in last place with a 17-27 record in the NL East. They have next to no shot of even making the playoffs, despite the fact eight teams will get in. Yesterday, they lost 2-1 to the team that occupies first place in the division, Atlanta. While this would normally be a mismatch in the Braves favor, today is no normal day as Max Scherzer goes for the Nationals. Scherzer is still having a solid year with a 6-3 TSR and 3.40 ERA. That’s why Washington is favored Sunday. Scherzer threw seven scoreless innings in his last start. Kyle Wright has an 8.05 and 2.211 WHIP in five starts for the Braves. He’s 0-4. Atlanta is also 0-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. When they get to the postseason, the Braves could be in trouble with their starting rotation decimated by injuries. They’re in trouble today as well. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 6* on LOS ANGELES

The Dodgers beat the Dbax again yesterday, 6-4, the second time in a row they needed extra innings to do so. It was the seventh straight time the first place team in the NL West beat the last place team. It was also Arizona’s fifth loss in a row. Speaking of five losses in a row, Madison Bumgarner has an 0-5 team start record this year for the Dbax and has allowed a frightening nine home runs. The Dodgers, who are by far and away the best team this year, have won 8 of the last 10. Not that they need any more advantages, but Dustin May has a 6-2 TSR this season and a 2.88 ERA. He’s a much better pitcher than Bumgarner is right now. Also the Dodgers are obviously a MUCH better team than the Dbax, who have lost 18 of their past 20 games! This is a mismatch in every sense of the word. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Thursday games this season. Play on LA Dodgers

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

The Brewers couldn’t put together enough runs to keep pace with the Tigers last night. In fact, they didn’t even score until putting three on the board in the top of the ninth! But despite losing 8-3, they actually wound up with more hits than Detroit (10-8) and it was more of a case of “cluster luck” than anything else. For today’s game, we’re backing Milwaukee as they turn to the reliable Corbin Burnes. In his previous two starts, Burnes has gone six innings and the only run allowed was unearned. He has 17 strikeouts in those 12 innings. With him on the mound, the Brewers beat Pittsburgh 9-1 and then Cleveland 7-1. In four of his five starts this season, Burnes has allowed 1 or 0 runs. Matthew Boyd gets the start here for Detroit. While he too has gone six innings in consecutive quality outings, he still allowed three home runs. Both starts saw Boyd give up two runs, which is obviously more than Brunes in the same stretch. Also, Boyd got off to a shaky start this year. None of his first six starts were considered “quality” and he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* on SF

RIght now, the Giants have better than 50% odds of making the postseason. With the Dodgers and Padres so far in front, the best SF can probably hope for is the 7 or 8 seed, but the National League has such little depth right now and that’s very attainable. Three straight wins have the Giants at .500 for the season (20-20). A big reason for that is an 8-2 record against the Dbax, whom they defeated yesterday by a score of 4-2. That series is now over and it’s time to welcome in a Seattle team that’s won six straight. Similar to how the Giants have feasted on the Dbax in 2020, the Mariners have done the same to the Rangers, the team they just swept. Seattle is 8-2 against Texas and 11-20 vs. everyone else. The Giants qualify as “everyone else” and shouldn’t have much difficulty beating up on a team that’s allowing almost six full runs/game on the road. A rookie, Ljay Newsome, makes just his second big league start for the Mariners today. He’s starting in place of the traded Taijuan Walker. Logan Webb goes for the Giants and he allowed no more than three runs in any of his first six starts. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH +1.5

Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5.

AAA

This is an 8* on OAKLAND

Oakland looks to bounce back after losing two of three to San Diego over the weekend. Houston was even worse, dropping all four games to the Angels. The A’s are also going for revenge as they lost both games of a doubleheader against the ‘Stros back on August 29th. Those two games were in Houston though. When the Astros came to Oakland earlier in the year, the A’s won all three games. In that series, Montas (who starts here for Oakland) had a strong outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits. In that same series (next day), Houston’s Javier (Monday starter) allowed five runs in three innings and gave up three home runs. The Astros just aren’t the same team they were the last few seasons. Some of it has to do with injuries, but they are also allowing 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER

AAA

THis is a 10* on SEATTLE

These two AL West also-rans have already met seven times on the field this season. The Mariners won the last four, all of which have been played here in Seattle. They swept a weekend series two weeks ago, then took last night’s opener by a score of 6-3. Sad to report Rangers fans that the misery is likely to continue tonight. Kyle Gibson is on the mound and Texas is just 1-6 when he starts including 0-3 the last three. In those last three starts, Gibson has a 9.37 ERA. He’s given up five or more runs every start, 17 total, and allowed six home runs. Seattle has won three in a row now, and given up only five runs in the process. Sheffield pitched once before against the Rangers and he held them to one run in six innings as the Mariners ultimately prevailed 10-1. The Rangers’ run differential is really bad (-65) as only the Red Sox are worse. Play on SEATTLE

AAA

This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The White Sox find themselves fighting in a tough three-way battle for first place in the American League Central. An 11-6 win here in Kansas City yesterday allowed them to keep pace with the Indians, whom they trail by just half a game. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s hotter teams the last three weeks, going 13-4 in their last 17 games. As for the Royals, with just 22 games remaining, they are reduced to the role of spoiler for the top three in the division. KC finds itself in last and has lost three in a row, all by 5 runs or more. We don’t see any indication they’ll get off the mat tonight as the starting pitching matchup certainly is not in their favor. For the White Sox, Dane Dunning has a 2.89 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his two starts. The team has won both with the last one coming against Kansas City. Dunning threw five shutout innings in that one and didn’t give up a hit. For the Royals, Brady Singer has a 5.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts and has really been roughed up of late. Singler has allowed four home runs his last three starts. Chicago is now 6-1 this year vs. KC after the win yesterday, 4-0 on the road. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Texas has been pretty bad this year. Only Boston has a worse run differential. The Rangers come in having been outscored by 58 runs this season. While they’ve been competitive here in Hoston, splitting a pair of one-run decisions, we just don’t like them in this Thursday afternoon matchup. Houston will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke has pitched much better than his 3-4 team start record would seem to indicate as his ERA and WHIP are 2.68 and 0.94 respectively. He’s allowed three runs or less every start and hadn’t given up a homer until allowing two to Oakland last week. Texas will send out their ace, Lance Lynn, to oppose Greinke. He’s allowed a HR in five of his last six outings and was roughed up a bit by the Dodgers in the most recent one. The Rangers are just 4-12 so far in road games while being outscored by an average of 2.2 runs/game! Houston is +1.7 rpg over their opponents here at home. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO

San Diego has won 11 of its last 14 games due in no small part to an offense that leads the league with 211 runs scored. Three of the past five games have seen the Padres score 10 or more runs. They are coming off a 6-0 win at Colorado on Monday. Making the Angels task even more difficult tonight is the fact Lamet will be the SD starter. Lamet has allowed two runs or less in six of his seven starts thus far and never more than three. The Angels have never faced him before. Coming off two straight losses where they scored just one run (against Seattle!), this looks to be a really bad matchup for Los Angeles. Teheran is 0-2 with a 9.17 ERA in five games and had been demoted to the bullpen at one point. While San Diego has shined in interleague play thus far (8-2), the Angels have been quite the opposite (1-6). Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is an 8* on CLEVELAND 

Any time the Indians score a ton of runs, like they did last night, they are a virtual lock to win. Yesterday 10-1 win here in Kansas City improved the Tribe to an amazing 17-2 when scoring at least three runs. With them facing Junis today, we think they’ll easily get to three runs. Junis has allowed at least five runs four of the last five times he’s faced Cleveland. He also has a 1.58 WHIP in his three 2020 starts, none of which have lasted a full five innings. Triston McKenzie has looked great for Cleveland in his two starts, both of which the team has won. He’s allowed just three runs and five hits in 10 innings and has 13 strikeouts. Cleveland is allowing just 2.9 runs/game for the season, the fewest in all of baseball. The Royals have scored just five runs in their last three games and only three in this series. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE

The Tigers have won five in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend, and now are 16-16 on the year. Being at .500, even through only 32 games, is a massive achievement for a club that won only 47 of its 161 games played last season while it was outscored by 333 runs. But look for the “good times” to come to an end on Tuesday when the Tigers visit Milwaukee. The five straight wins have all taken place at home. The Brewers, who were home over the weekend and won two of three vs. Pittsburgh, are a team to be trusted in this price range at Miller Park. They’ve won all three times this year as a home favorite of -175 or higher. Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit and that’s a problem. While the team is 3-2 in Fulmer’s five starts thus far, the pitcher has an 8.79 ERA. He’s not exactly putting his team in position to win with zero of his starts lasting longer than three innings. The Tigers have lost 36 of their last 51 series openers. Lindblom should pitch well enough for the home team to win this one. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on STL

After getting rocked 14-2 on Friday, the Cardinals played a much closer game against the Indians on Saturday. But as we know, “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” The Redbirds still lost 2-1, a game that went extra innings, and now face the possibility of being swept in their own ballpark. We think they’ll rise to the occasion Sunday behind Adam Wainwright, whose four starts have gone very well. He has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to step up in this spot. Solving Cleveland’s pitching is something few teams have been able to do in 2020, but it shouldn’t take many runs for the Cardinals to win this game. The Indians entered the series with the 4th lowest team batting average and they are hitting just .208 on the road. With Civale starting, they are just 3-3 this season and have scored two runs or less in all three losses. The Cardinals are 42-17 L59 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on ST. LOUIS

AAA

This is a 6* on MINNESOTA

Not only have the Tigers won six of their last eight, they surprisingly swept the Twins in a doubleheader Saturday, winning by scores of 8-2 and 4-2. Those losses dropped the Twins, now losers of four straight, out of first place in the Central Division. However, we’ll look for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday as they send Maeda to the hill. Maeda has a 5-1 team start record, 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of the six starts. In the past, the Twins have been very dominant as a larger road favorite, owning a 14-4 mark the L18 times they’ve been priced at -175 or higher. Detroit is going with Mize on the mound today. He has given up more runs in his two starts then Maeda has given up in his last five. It’s a huge pitching mismatch on Sunday and the Twins offense can remain dormant for only so long. They are 26-14 L40 games vs. the Tigers. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona broke its 8-game losing streak last night and did so in convincing fashion, beating the Giants 7-4. They were up 7-1 heading into the ninth in what was also a revenge spot as the Dbax had been swept in San Francisco last weekend. We told you to take the Dbax Friday and the same holds true tonight. While they may not have the same distinct scheduling advantage they held going into yesterday’s game (had Thursday off while SF played a doubleheader) nor is the starting pitching matchup as lopsided, the Dbax remain the play. The Giants had scored only one run in 22 innings before putting a rather meaningless three on the board in the ninth last night. Cahill’s numbers may look good, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t gone longer than 5 ⅓. He beat Weaver and Arizona in his last start, 6-1, but Weaver actually pitched every bit as well. That was a failure of the Dbax bullpen. We don’t think the Giants are very good. Their recent seven-game win streak was a mirage and Arizona is the better team. Trust us on that. Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is an 8* on ARIZONA

Arizona has lost eight in a row. The last three losses were all to the Colorado Rockies, at home and by one run margins. San Francisco had won a season-high seven straight, but was then shut out in both games of a doubleheader yesterday (against the Dodgers). Like every other game in this report, this play is born out of revenge as last weekend saw the Dbax lose three games in SF. They scored only four runs the entire series. But the fact they were off yesterday (protest) while the Giants played twice gives the home team a big advantage in this one as they look to atone for last weekend’s embarrassing performance. Another advantage is having Zac Gallen on the mound for tonight’s opener. Gallen has a 7-1 TSR at Chase Field in his career with a 2.27 ERA. He has 56 strikeouts in those eight starts and has held opposing hitters to an .187 average. Giants starter Anderson has started four times on the road this year and has a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.  Play on ARIZONA

AAA

This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE

Revenge is going to be the “commonality” in this 3-game report Friday and we start with a Milwaukee team that suffered an embarrassing three-game sweep last weekend in Pittsburgh. Sweeping that series accounts for 33% of the Pirates’ wins this season! They are just 6-19 otherwise and that’s even including the fact they’ll come into this series on a two-game win streak. Both of those wins came Thursday in a doubleheader sweep of St. Louis. Milwaukee also played in a doubleheader yesterday, although they lost both games to Cincinnati. Despite how the last seven days have gone, the Brewers still remain decided favorites for this rematch from last weekend as they should. We just can’t see them losing as a big favorite to Pittsburgh a fourth straight time. Though he did pitch well in last weekend’s series, Holland still has an 8.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP his last three starts for the Bucs. Milwaukee’s Burnes has started three times, all on the road, and has a 3.29 ERA. Pittsburgh is 0-6 so far this season as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on the YANKEES

This play is on the first game of today’s doubleheader, which was necessitated by last weekend’s cancellations due to positive COVID tests within the Mets clubhouses. Even though both of today’s games are being played at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be the designated home team for only this first game. Both games are also only seven innings due to this year’s rules on doubleheaders. That the Yankees come up to bat last in this first game has little to do with why we are taking them. It’s more so that they enter as the more desperate team as they are on a five-game losing streak. Yesterday was always going to be an off-day for them. Meanwhile, the Mets (along with the Marlins) walked off the field for their scheduled game Thursday in protest. The Yankees are 10-4 at home so far and the fact they are coming off a “normal” off day gives them the advantage. They are averaging 6.3 runs/game in this ballpark, so whether they come up to bat first or last is really immaterial. Also important is that starter Montgomery’s team start record at home is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Mets are starting Wacha, whose numbers are not good (6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), and the team is 0-3 so far as a road dog of +125 to +175. Play on NY YANKEES

AAA

This is a 7* on SAN DIEGO

This is a complete mismatch. San Diego is 18-12 at the halfway mark and the hottest team in baseball, having won seven in a row. They just swept the Astros. While Seattle also swept its last series, that was against a bad Texas team. The Mariners were only 8-19 on the year before that sweep. Still with one of the worst run differentials in either league (-38), Seattle just isn’t capable of beating a quality opponent like the Padres, who are already 7-0 against the American League this season. The Mariners had one other three-game win streak this year. Not only did they lose their next time out, they proceeded to lose 14 of the next 17 games. Chris Paddack toes the rubber here for San Diego and he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home where the team has gone 10-4. Marco Gonzalez has pitched well for Seattle but Tuesday’s starter is going to have to deal with the Padres offense that has averaged 8.0 runs/game during its win streak. It seems unlikely Gonzalez will pitch well tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has yet to find success in this series, which is somewhat shocking when you consider who the opponent is. Pittsburgh came in with the worst record in MLB, but has now won two straight for the 1st time all season. Still, even with two convincing victories (7-2 and 12-5), the Pirates have the National League’s worst run differential at -32. This afternoon they’ll send Brubaker to the hill and he’s yet to go longer than three innings in two starts. He allowed three runs in both so it’s a 9.00 ERA for him. Milwaukee’s Burnes has a 2.16 ERA in his two starts, both of which have seen him allow just 1 ER. Yesterday was the most runs scored by the Pirates in a win all season. Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 12 career appearances vs Pittsburgh, all in relief.  We see Pittsburgh resorting back to their previous ways and Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. Christan Yelich has to break out of his 1 for 22 slump, right? Play on MILWAUKEE

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analysis soon

This is a 8* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland fell prey to one big inning last night as Detroit scored 7 runs in the top of the 4th. Really, it was one pitch that did them in, that being a grand slam hit by Tigers rookie Isaac Paredas. That erased what had been a 5-0 Indians lead and the 10-5 final score marked the first time the Tribe has lost this year when scoring at least three runs. They were 13-0 when scoring 3 or more previous to that! The loss also ended their 20-game win streak over the Tigers. Expect Cleveland to bounce back though as Saturday finds them sending out highly touted prospect Triston McKenzie, who will be making his big league debut. McKenzie is the latest addition to a staff that is allowing a MLB-low 2.9 runs/game and a .210 opponents’ batting average. No matter how he performs, it’s likely to be better than Detroit’s Matthew Boyd, who has an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in five starts. Boyd has allowed seven home runs his past three starts and has yet to go more than five innings in any start this season. Classic bounce back for Cleveland. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

It was all set up to be a great weekend for Milwaukee as they were facing the team with the worst record in the league. But they lost 7-2 to the Pirates Friday night, a result which should not sit well with the Brewers. Fortunately for them, they are 8-4 off a loss this year while Pittsburgh is 0-4 off a win. The Pirates have been hammered in those four games too; giving up a total of 34 runs to the opposition. Be prepared to see them give up a lot more this evening as Derek Holland and his 8.26 ERA takes the mound. Holland gave up five home runs in his last start and the Pirates lost 11-5 to Detroit. Holland did face off with the Brewers in his first start of 2020 and while that ended up being an 8-6 Pittsburgh win (as +170 underdogs), he did not factor into the decision. Milwaukee will counter with Lindblom, who started opposite Holland in that 8-6 game last month. But since then, Lindblom has struck out a career-high eight batters in back to back starts. The Brewers are 8-2 their L10 games at PNC Park. A Pirates team that has scored just 85 runs in 22 games can’t be trusted to win two in a row. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 7* on CLEVELAND

The Indians have taken advantage of a soft schedule (Detroit and Pittsburgh) to win six in a row. They’ve swept the last two series and are now an amazing 12-0 this season in games where they score at least three runs. Yesterday, they needed only two runs in a shutout win over Pittsburgh. That was their MLB-leading 5th shutout of 2020 and no team has allowed fewer runs this season (just 66 in 25 games). Not only did Cleveland sweep last weekend’s series with Detroit, they’ve beaten them 20 consecutive times! So facing them a second straight weekend has to have them overjoyed, especially seeing as Detroit has now lost nine in a row overall and was shut out yesterday in Chicago. The Indians had their best offensive series of the year against the Tigers last weekend by scoring 21 runs in three games. Tigers starter Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his three starts and lasted less than three innings when he faced Cleveland last week. The Tribe goes with Adam Plutko, who hasn’t been their strongest starter, but he’s never lost to Detroit (4-0) in nine appearances, six of them starts. The most recent was against Fulmer last week. All signs point to a Cleveland blowout tonight. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on WASH -1.5

Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* on OAKLAND

After losing both games in Arizona, the A’s bounced back last night with a 4-1 win here in Oakland. The A’s had won four in a row coming into this series with the Diamondbacks and have really played as well as anybody in 2020. At 17-8, they’ve got the best record in the American League. While Arizona saw a six-game win streak end yesterday, the truth of the matter is they hadn’t been playing all that well before that streak. Three of those six wins were by one run. Take away that six game win streak and Arizona is only 7-12 this year while getting outscored by 29 runs. Manaea is winless in five starts for Oakland but should get that elusive first victory tonight. Ten of the A’s 17 wins this year have come at home. Arizona has just five road wins and is 1-5 vs. lefty starting pitchers. Young is starting for only the second time and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Madison Bumgarner is injured. Play on OAKLAND

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This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO

Texas has been no match for San Diego in this series with the Padres taking all three games so far. The first two were playing in Arlington and made headlines when Fernando Tatis swung on a 3-0 count and hit a grand slam (upset people for some reason). It took an extra inning last night but the Padres still ended up winning 6-3 and now they get to go for the sweep with what looks to be a huge pitching edge. Lamet has a 1.59 ERA/0.81 WHIP through five starts and has looked great. He’s allowed only six runs in 28+ innings, which means trouble for a Texas club that comes in hitting just .214 on the year. The Rangers are giving up lots of runs too, 6.0/game on the road, thanks largely to a bullpen whose ERA is now 8.26 away from home. Starter Kyle Gibson has a 1.48 WHIP and the team is 1-3 in his four starts. With last night’s game decided on a walkoff grand slam, we can’t imagine Texas has much left in the tank. Play on SAN DIEGO

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was able to squeak out another one on Tuesday, this time defeating the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in 11 innings. That was the Astros sixth straight win and they’ve allowed two runs or less in every game! In fact, they’ve allowed just seven runs total during the win streak. The last four wins have all been by one run margins, meaning they’re not scoring very many runs either, but that should change Wednesday as they pay a visit to Coors Field. Having beaten the Rockies each of the last two days (in Houston), the ‘Stros have plenty of confidence coming into this one. They should, plus there’s Framber Valdez starting. Valdez has a 2.08 ERA and is coming off two straight quality starts. The Rockies have lost five of six and their bullpen has been horrendous at home, posting a 7.23 ERA as well as a 1.70 WHIP. Their starting pitcher for this game will be Castellani, who’s made two decent starts thus far but against weaker lineups than the one he’ll see tonight. The Astros are 10-3 their last 13 games where the total is set at 11.0 or higher. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 7* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland needed an extra inning to outlast Pittsburgh last night, 6-3. They led 3-1 going into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Pirates were able to tie the game up. But a three-run HR from Carlos Santana effectively ended things in the top of the 10th as the Indians moved to a perfect 11-0 this season when scoring three runs or more. Pittsburgh has only four wins all year as they’ve got the worst record in baseball. Furthermore, they’ve allowed almost double the number of runs Cleveland has. No club has given up fewer runs than the Indians’ 65 this year and the story shouldn’t change Wednesday when they send Civale to the hill. He’s gone at least six innings in all four of his starts. Don’t be fooled by the 0.00 ERA from Pittsburgh’s starter Brault. He’s pitched a total of only seven innings all year. The Indians have gone 6-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and are clearly rolling now with 9 wins in the last 12 games overall. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* on MINNESOTA

Minnesota is another American League team off to a good start as they are 15-8 and tied with the Yankees for the best run differential at +38. They come into this series having won each of the last three days, same as Milwaukee, but the Brewers are just 10-10 on the year. While Milwaukee should feel good about itself having just beaten the Cubs three straight times, every win was by one run. They’ve still been outscored by 12 runs this season. Don’t see them solving Kenta Maeda who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in four starts. Maeda has gone at least six inning in each of his last three starts and allowed a combined five runs. Burnes made it to only the fourth inning in his only start for Milwaukee (went 3 ⅓). Maeda has a 2.94 ERA in six career starts vs. the Brewers. The Twins have scored 32 more runs than the Brewers. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* on OAKLAND

Oakland is doing quite well for itself as they’ve started 16-7. They’d won five in a row before yesterday’s 4-3 loss to Arizona, which was the Diamondbacks’ fifth straight win themselves. But the difference is Arizona is only 12-11 and has a -15 run differential on the season. The starting pitching matchup for Tuesday heavily tilts in the A’s favor as Montas has a 3-1 TSR with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while Weaver has a 11.86 ERA, 2.123 WHIP and is winless in his four starts. Going back to last season, Oakland is 11-2 in Montas’ last 13 starts. Weaver has yet to go more than four innings in any start in 2020 and has already allowed 7 home runs. Note Oakland has scored 38 runs its previous four games before losing in the 9th last night. Play on OAKLAND

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This is an 8* on OVER

The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. For the Astros, Bielak has a 1.80 ERA in two starts, both of which came versus NL West teams! Traditionally, the Rockies are not a very good road team. Play on HOUSTON

This is a 10* on OVER

Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER

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THis is a 10* on LAD

The Dodgers are clearly too much for the Angels and can finish off the sweep this afternoon. Last night’s game went 10 innings after the Dodgers tied it late. This one should go smoother behind Dustin May, who has twice gone off as a favorite of -200 or more, so this is a good price on him. The Dodgers, as was to be expected, have been very dominant this season. They’ve scored 55 more runs than they have allowed. No other team has a run diff of better than +33 and only two (Yankees, Twins) are better than +20. While the Dodgers have won four in a row, the Angels have lost three straight. Teheran is not well-suited to start in this spot, not just because of the 13.49 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, but also due to the fact he has never beaten the Dodgers in eight tries and has a 5.35 ERA against them. This is a very one-sided matchup as the Dodgers are already 7-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on LA DODGERS

This is an 8* on COLORADO

So Texas pitching has had virtually zero problems adjusting to Coors Field this weekend. Friday saw starter Lance Lynn throw a complete game and it was just the eighth time in the history of this park that a team was held to two hits or fewer over a full nine-inning game. The Rockies did a bit better at the plate on Saturday, but still ended up wasting an early 2-0 lead and lost 6-4. The Rangers have won a season-high four straight, which is a bit perplexing to us as this has not been a good road team the last few seasons and they’re still -2.0 rpg outside of Arlington this year. The Rockies are 12-8 and have outscored teams by 19 runs this year while Texas is 10-9 but has been outscored by 11 runs. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jon Gray. Gray was hit hard his last time out, but should bounce back here as the Rangers are only hitting .217 for the year. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA (39.0 IP, 8 ER) in six career interleague starts at Coors Field, limiting American League batters to a .159 average. Allard has looked pretty good for Texas but has never pitched at Coors before. Play on COLORADO

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

The Nationals wrapped up a busy Friday with a 15-3 win over the Orioles. Just prior to that, these two teams had to complete a suspended game from Sunday. Baltimore won that 6-2 as they were ahead 5-2 in the sixth when play was halted. Despite winning the second game in such convincing fashion, it was a pretty “bad” day for Washington. They lost Stephen Strasburg after just 16 pitches due to a nerve issue. Second baseman Starlin Castro broke his wrist. Despite these injuries, we still like the Nats to roll again here on Sunday. Baltimore has definitely overachieved to this point. No one expected this 11-8 start which included six straight wins before the 15-3 loss yesterday. This has been the worst team in baseball the last two years. Nationals starter Pat Corbin has been sharp in three outings so are (2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) while the Orioles send Wojciechowski out and he’s got a 5.40 ERA. Washington now averages over 7.0 runs/game on the road. Baltimore is averaging less than four per game at home. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 7* on CINCINNATI

Going by units lost, the Reds (-7.1) have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far. With playoff expansion (8 teams per league) this season, many thought this would be Cincinnati’s year to return to the postseason. Right now they’re just 8-11 and just took an embarrassing 9-6 loss to Pittsburgh at home yesterday. They did try and make a game of it late, scoring runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings, but falling into an early 9-0 hole was simply too much to overcome. Fortunately for the cause, Pittsburgh is not a team you’d expect to win two in a row. In fact, that hasn’t happened yet as the Pirates record is a league-worst 4-13. Sonny Gray has three of the Reds eight wins this year and he’ll be on the mound Friday, looking to improve his already stellar numbers (2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Over his first three starts, Gray allowed just 2 runs in 28 innings. Chad Kuhl will start for the Pirates. He’s worked as a reliever as well. He was okay in the first start, giving up just one run. But he made it through only 4 innings and the Pirates lost that game 17-13. That was also the last time the Bucs were off a win. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES

The Dodgers need more innings like the 8th of last night’s game. They scored four times in that frame, putting the finishing touches on a much-needed 6-0 win over the divisional rival Padres. Los Angeles had lost to San Diego each of the previous two days, scoring just three runs total in the process. But despite this mini “slump,” Dodger Blue continues to rank among the NL leaders in runs scored this year. So does San Diego, which wasn’t as expected. The Padres couldn’t get much of anything going at the plate last night, however. Here they’ll go up against Julio Urias. Urias was going to start Wednesday, but got pushed back to today, giving him one extra day of rest. In three starts, Urias has given up only four runs. He’s also yet to allow a home run. Chris Paddack of San Diego has allowed four HR’s in his last three starts, which is a concern facing a Dodgers lineup that had homered in every game but two coming into the series. The Padres are giving up nearly 5.5 runs/game on the road. Play on LA DODGERS

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This is a 10* on UNDER

The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies keep finding ways to lose and last night’s 10-9 setback at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles may have taken the cake. Despite blowing an early 3-0 lead, Philly still found itself up a run heading into the ninth after a 3-run rally of their own in the bottom of the 8th. But then they gave up three runs in the top of the ninth. Still, they were able to tie it up by scoring two in the bottom half of the inning. But it just wasn’t meant to be as they gave up two in the 10th, then could only come up with one of their own. As frustrating a defeat as that defeat was, we think Philly overcomes it here as they send Eflin to the mound. Eflin didn’t allow any runs in his first start, which ended up being a 5-4 win against the Yankees. Baltimore goes with LeBlanc, whose three starts haven’t gone very well (6.91 ERA), especially the last one where he allowed six runs in 3 ⅓. The Orioles, projected to be the worst team in baseball by many, now have a winning record at 8-7. That isn’t going to last. They had a previous three-game win streak and promptly got shut out the next two games. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

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This is an 8* on TORONTO

Yesterday marked the first MLB game played in Buffalo in the last 105 years and things ended up turning out well for the “home team.” Toronto, playing its “home games” here due to COVID-19 concerns, was able to take the game in extra innings by a count of 5-4. It was the Marlins’ third straight loss following a 7-1 start. Obviously, Miami was going to start trending in a negative direction sooner rather than later and we think it will continue here on Wednesday as they wrap up this first series in upstate NY. Blue Jays starter Pearson has pitched better than his 0-2 TSR as he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both starts saw him last five innings and allow just two hits. The only three runs he’s allowed all came in the last outing due to some control issues. But Pearson also has 10 strikeouts in as many innings. Miami, whose roster is still thin because of COVID-19, sends Jordan Yamamoto to the mound. He allowed four runs in his only 2020 start. Again, the Marlins were due to start regressing and unfortunately for them that’s not going to end after three straight losses. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* on LA DODGERS

The Padres switched starters on the Dodgers yesterday and it paid off as Luis Perdomo and five relievers held LA to just four hits in a 2-1 victory. It was one of the Dodgers’ weaker efforts at the plate so far this season. They went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position and failed to homer for the first time in 11 games. But it’s important to know they are averaging 5.0 runs/game, making them one of baseball’s highest scoring teams. Tonight they get to face Garrett Richards, who we were set to play against yesterday (before the pitching change) as he’s allowed four runs in consecutive starts. Los Angeles has won all three previous starts of Ross Stripling, who will go again tonight. The most recent was against Richards and the Padres last week. The Dodgers have a much better bullpen than the Padres. They are also 4-1 off a loss this season. Play on LOS ANGELES

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington jumped all over the hapless Mets on Monday and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 16-4. After taking that kind of beating, it’s tough to like the Mets chances tonight as they have to face Max Scherzer. Though a sore hamstring caused him to exit his last start after just one inning, Scherzer looked really good in the start before that one. He threw 7 ⅓ scoreless innings against Toronto on 7/29. He had 21 strikeouts in his first two starts. The Mets are a disaster. Their bullpen is in shambles and you shouldn’t trust today’s starter Rick Porcello, who allowed 13 runs his first two starts. Now Porcello did bounce back with a strong effort against Scherzer and the Nationals last week. But we’ll go with the revenge angle and the better team Tuesday. Again, Scherzer lasted just one inning in that first go-around and it’s not because he was ineffective. The Mets have a bottom five run differential in all of baseball. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* on TORONTO

For the first time in 135 years, the city of Buffalo will host a regular season Major League Baseball game. COVID-19 means the Blue Jays can’t play in Toronto so they chose (were forced to?) their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium to be the new home. The Jays are 5-8 coming into this “home opener” and will no doubt be happy to be here, even if it isn’t “really” home. They’ll host a team that’s had to endure its own coronavirus-related drama, Miami, who has managed to start 7-3. But the Marlins have lost two in a row as reality seems to be setting in for a team that wasn’t expected to be very competitive in 2020. Remember that four of the Marlins wins were against a terrible Baltimore team and that was after a long, quarantine-induced layoff. Their record is phony and the roster is thin. Elieser Hernandez didn’t allow a run when he faced Baltimore last week, but also only went 4 1/3 innings. We like what we saw out of Hyun-Jin Ryu in his last start for Toronto as he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on TEXAS

Over the weekend we saw the Rangers sweep the Angels while the Mariners were very nearly swept (at home) by the Rockies. These two AL West sides start a series on Monday and it certainly appears that the home team has a distinct advantage. Over the first eight games in their new stadium, the Rangers have allowed just 22 runs to be scored. Seattle has given up 51 runs in eight road games, more than double what Texas has allowed at home. The pitching matchup for tonight seems likely to follow the script as Gibson has a 2.45 ERA for Texas while Dunn has a 6.43 ERA for Seattle. Making matters even worse for the road team is the fact the bullpen has a 6.03 road ERA. After playing the last 10 games all at home (and going just 3-7), hitting the road may very well be a tough transition for these young Mariners, who were held to three runs or fewer in half the games on the just completed homestand. Going back to last season, Seattle has lost seven of its last eight series openers. They are just 4-10 the last 14 games at Texas. Play on TEXAS

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This is a 10* on COLORADO

Colorado improved to a MLB-best 11-3 yesterday with a 5-0 win over Seattle. It was the Rockies second straight win here in the Pacific Northwest as they won Friday’s game by a count of 8-4. Given how each team’s season has started, it’s definitely a little surprising to still be able to get the Rockies at a somewhat affordable price. The Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball so far at 5-11. No one has been outscored by more runs as they are -40 in that department. Tilting things even further in Colorado’s direction for Sunday is that German Marquez will be starting the game. Marquez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He’s allowed just four runs in 19 innings and has a win over Oakland. The Rockies are allowing just over two runs per game on the road. Seattle is averaging less than three runs per game at home. Justus Sheffield’s first two starts for the M’s haven’t gone well with the team losing by a combined 18 runs to Oakland and the Angels. The Mariners bullpen has been especially horrible. The Rockies should finish off the sweep in easy fashion today. Play on COLORADO

This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO

The Padres made a nice “recovery” Friday night by shutting out Arizona 3-0. It was a good spot for them after an off-day on Thursday. They’d previously lost four of five including two straight to the Dodgers, the last one coming in heartbreaking fashion as a runner was thrown out at the plate to end the game. The Padres are now 4-1 this year vs. the struggling Diamondbacks, who have the worst run differential so far in the National League. Arizona had picked up a couple surprise wins over Houston earlier in the week, but given their lack of hitting (2.8 runs/game on the road), it was only a matter of time before they cooled back down. Tonight they’ve got to face Chris Paddack, who has allowed just five runs across three starts so far. The first of those was six shutout innings vs. Arizona. The Diamondbacks go with Merrill Kelly, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Texas on 7/28. But then he gave up two home runs to the Dodgers in a 3-0 loss last time out. The Padres homered three times (also solo shots) yesterday, so look out for the long ball. Play on SAN DIEGO

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This is an 8* on LA -1.5

Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

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This is an 8* on the ANGELS

So the Angels were a nice winner for us yesterday. They beat Seattle 6-1, making it a winning series (took two of three games), and are now 5-8 on a season that’s more than 20% complete (crazy!). With the top two spots in the division likely to go to Houston and Oakland, it really is important for the Angels to beat up on the Mariners and Rangers this year. What they just accomplished in Seattle was a nice start and now they get their chance against Texas, who is in a bad way at 3-8. The Rangers just got swept in Oakland and have lost five of their last six games. Friday starter Jordan Lyles was pretty bad in his first outing of 2020, giving up four runs in four innings with five walks. We’ll go with Griffin Canning in this one. The Angels starter had six strong innings vs. Houston last weekend where he allowed just one run and his team won 6-1 as a +140 dog. As we went over yesterday, the Angels lineup has been a lot better since Mike Trout returned. Play on LA Angels

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA 

Though they lost Thursday afternoon, the Twins have gotten off to a great start at 10-3. They very much looked well on their way to another victory yesterday, but the bullpen collapsed, allowing three runs in the last two innings. Still you’ve got to like their chances today facing the Royals, who despite a big 13-2 win yesterday are just 4-10 on the year. Going into yesterday, the Twins had won six in a row while the Royals had lost six in a row. Minnesota is not only one of the highest scoring teams in baseball (5.2 runs/game), their pitching staff has a 2.97 ERA, which is 2nd best among American League teams and 4th best overall. Devin Smeltzer starts for the first time in 2020 today, but it’ll be his third appearance for the Twins. Smeltzer’s best start last year was against the Royals, whom he held to just two singles across six frames. Jacob Junis will also be making his second start for KC. The first one resulted in a 9-2 loss to the White Sox. Junis has 4.28 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Minnesota should roll here. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on the ANGELS

The Angels lost to the Mariners 7-6 last night in what was a back and forth ball game. They’d previously won the series opener 5-3 but are still a disappointing 2-3 vs. Seattle in 2020 despite being priced as a decided favorite in all five games. We’ll back them with Bundy on the mound this afternoon as it’s been two quality starts so far for the former Baltimore Oriole. Bundy did take the “L” last time out, which was against Seattle, but he only allowed three runs on four hits. The Mariners had lost four in a row before yesterday’s win and this is a team that can’t really score runs on a consistent basis. The Angels are still 26-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 the past three seasons. Today is the first time they’ll have both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the batting order. Trout is having an excellent series so far with three home runs. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker has had one good start (Oakland) and one bad one (Houston) and we don’t think he’s consistent enough to trust here. The Angels are due to start playing better. Play on LA ANGELS

AAA

This is an 8* on OAKLAND

Oakland had one big inning last night in Seattle and that proved to be more than enough as they crushed the Mariners 11-1. The A’s scored eight times in the fifth, all of those runs coming with two outs. They ended up sending 14 men to the plate in the one inning (most since a game in Sept ‘18) and could have scored even more as they ended up leaving the bases loaded. It was a welcome sight for A’s fans as the team hadn’t been hitting all that well so far in 2020. But the team has still managed to win three in a row and we expect the offensive resurgence to continue tonight against Lance Lynn and Texas. While Lynn has pitched well in his two 2020 starts, both were at home. He had a 2-1 record vs. Oakland last season, but his ERA in those starts was 5.56. Also, the Rangers have not yet been able to string together consecutive victories. They won Sunday, 9-5 against the Giants, but that was their only win of that series. Oakland was 13-6 vs. Texas in 2019. Tonight is also the starting debut for the much hyped Jesus Luzardo, who is the top pitching prospect in the A’s organization. Look for him to live up to the hype. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO

The Rockies are off to a fine 6-2 start. After a bit of a slow start at the plate, they’ve scored at least five runs in each of the last six games. Over the weekend, they took two of three from the Padres and are now in first place in the National League West. They’ve gotten quality starts the last two days as their starters shockingly lead MLB with a 2.00 ERA. On Monday they are hoping Chi Chi Gonzalez, who will be making his first start of 2020, keeps the trend going. He faces a Giants team that had been hitting the ball well prior to a 9-5 loss to Texas on Sunday. That snapped a two-game win streak for them. We still don’t trust San Francisco despite the respectable 5-5 start. Johnny Cueto wasn’t good against the Padres last week, lasting only 3 ⅔ while also giving up four runs, and we don’t expect him to pitch well at this tough venue Monday. The Rockies have won 56 of their last 76 games as a home favorite. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on the DODGERS

This series finale sees the Dodgers looking for its third win in four games and they’ve got Clayton Kershaw starting for the first time in 2020. Saturday’s game wasn’t competitive as the Dodgers homered four times en route to an 11-2 victory. There were three big innings and note the fact that last year’s MVP Corey Bellinger wasn’t even in the lineup. Kershaw is 16-10 with a 2.84 ERA in 33 starts vs. Arizona. He’s backed by a bullpen that has posted outstanding numbers thus far. Overall, the Dodgers are giving up the third least runs per game in the league right now while scoring the fifth most. Add it up and they’ve got the best run differential in all of baseball. As for Arizona, well, they are struggling. They are scoring the third fewest runs per game in baseball while giving up the eighth most. We wouldn’t look for Merrill Kelly to reprise the effort he gave in his first start of 2020 as that came against a Texas team that’s struggled to hit. Speaking of struggling to hit, the Diamondbacks could only manage five singles Saturday. They have not had more than eight hits in any game to date. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

The Giants are being rather coy with their starting pitching, often not naming the official starter until late in the day. Drew Smyly will end up getting the baseball on Saturday. He was okay in his first outing, only giving up a run in 3 ⅓ innings. Even more impressive is that the Giants won the game 3-1 as a +260 underdog against the Dodgers. What Smyly and the Giants are up against tonight isn’t nearly as formidable. Texas has scored 2 or fewer runs in all but one of its games. But don’t look for San Fran to score nine runs again as they did last night. They’ll face Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with an 8-0 TSR over his final eight starts. In addition, he threw two hitless innings of relief on Tuesday. 8* on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the CUBS

The Cubs took care of business Friday night, beating the Pirates 6-3. The Cubs are now 5-2 on the young season while the Pirates are 2-5. We see no reason why things won’t go “according to script” this evening. Pittsburgh came into last night’s game hitting a MLB-low .171. Five of their seven hits came over the final two innings against what has admittedly been a shaky Cubs bullpen. Saturday starter Mitch Keller posted a 6.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Cubs last year. Despite winning his first start of 2020 (5-1 vs. St. Louis), Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tyler Chatwood looked a lot better in his first start for the Cubs as he not only went six innings, but only gave up one run. He had eight strikeouts vs. just one walk. Though he’s never beaten the Pirates, Chatwood has 19 strikeouts in 28 innings against them. 10* CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Rockies started the season by taking two of three in Texas. They held the Rangers to a grand total of five runs in the three games and there was some chatter about whether or not that had something to do with the new ballpark in Arlington. But then the Rockies went to Oakland and won both games while allowing only four runs total. How much this pitching staff has actually improved remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. We’re likely about to see a dramatic turn as the team plays at home for the first time in 2020. Coors Field is a “whole different ball game” as the Rockies allowed 6.7 runs/game here in 2019. On the bright side, they also scored 6.2, which led all of baseball. Their opponent this weekend is San Diego, a team that has opened 5-2 and scored 44 runs (leads league in those seven games. We don’t expect the Padres to slow down a bit offensively in this series,  Starters Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will not be able to contain the respective offenses here. 10* on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on CWS

We like the White Sox chances quite a bit here. Pitching hasn’t been great so far, but Dallas Keuchel was the exception to that rule when he kept the Twins to two runs in 5+ innings. The Twins are obviously one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Royals are not. So Keuchel should turn in a second straight good start for his new team. Kansas City played yesterday in Detroit (they won 5-3) while Chicago had off. Only eight games into the season, the Royals are sending a second starter out to make his big league debut. Brad Singer was the first (pitched yesterday) and that went well. But again, that was versus the Tigers. Kansas City hasn’t played a home game yet, but it’s not like they’ve been very good at Kauffman Stadium the last two years. Their record here is 62-99. Look for Keuchel to lead a talented White Sox team to victory tonight. 8* on CHICAGO

AAA

This is an 8* on ATLANTA

40% of the NL East has been “put on ice” due to COVID-19 concerns, however the Braves and Mets have each played their full complement of games. Atlanta is 4-3 while outscoring the opposition by a total of nine runs. The Mets are 3-4 and have been outscored by six runs. This weekend will be the second go-around for the division rivals as last weekend saw Atlanta take two of three in Citi Field. The lone loss was Opening Day and by a score of 1-0. So the Braves easily could have swept. The final game of that series saw them clobber Rick Porcello on their way to a 14-1 win. They again get to face Porcello tonight. Porcello was tagged for seven runs in just two innings last Sunday night and while he might not be that bad again here, we’ve got little reason to believe he’ll be GOOD. He’s now allowed six or more runs nine times since the beginning of last season. Atlanta is 2-0 at home having beaten the Rays 7-4 and 2-1 the last two days. Sean Newcomb will again oppose Porcello just like last Sunday. Newcomb wasn’t great last time, but didn’t have to be. He is 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two previous home starts against them. Atlanta has been better so far and Porcello is not to be trusted. 8* on ATLANTA

This is an 8* on CINCINNATI

This is the Reds chance at redemption after they shockingly dropped two of three to the Tigers last weekend. The series started out well enough with Cincy taking the first game 7-1. But the team wouldn’t win again until Wednesday when they beat the Cubs 12-7. The Reds are a team that came into the season with a lot of hype. The pitching staff did have 46 strikeouts in the three games vs. the Tigers. Even though this series is in Detroit, we like the Reds chances tonight. They had yesterday off due to a rainout while the Tigers played the Royals and lost 5-3. While the Reds made a pitching change today (originally was going to be Trevor Bauer), we’ve got no issue with Luis Castillo, who allowed just one run and struck out 11 Tigers last Saturday. Castillo was originally set to pitch yesterday before the rainout The Tigers were terrible last season, losing 110+ games. They are not to be trusted this year and this looks to be a really cheap price to go against a team that’s played seven straight days. Turnbull had four walks and lasted just five innings when he faced Bauer last weekend, so he was lucky to get a no-decision. No such luck this time against Castillo. 8* on CINCINNATI

AAA

This is a 10* on the DODGERS

While it doesn’t make up for losing the 2017 World Series, it sure had to feel good for the Dodgers to take both games against Houston this week. Last night’s game went 13 innings, with LA winning 4-2. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball in our estimation and should continue to roll tonight in Arizona where they’ll face the division rival Diamondbacks. Arizona has yet to score more than four runs in any game. That’s a problem period, but especially when up against arguably the strongest lineup in MLB. Don’t expect things to change for the D’backs today against Ross Stripling. Stripling gave up one run in seven innings his first start, a 9-1 win over the Giants. While this is Arizona’s first home game, that’s not enough to overcome a much better ballclub. They’re going with Robbie Ray, who actually has good career numbers vs. LA but he didn’t look all that impressive last week. Ray lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and walked three batters in a game Arizona lost 5-1. 10* on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO

San Diego is off to fast start as they are now 4-1 after beating San Francisco 5-3 on Tuesday. With Chad Paddack starting tonight’s game, it would seem likely that the Padres are going to move to 5-1. Paddack tossed six shutout innings last Friday and held the Diamondbacks to just four hits. The Padres won 7-2. Paddack got off to a hot start last year, posting 1.91 ERA in March & April. He also had a 2.65 ERA in three starts vs. SF across the entire 2019 season. The Giants weren’t going to be a good team this year regardless, but their curious management of the pitching staff all but ensures they’ll finish way off the pace in the NL West. Starters aren’t going beyond the 6th inning, which becomes an issue when your bullpen has an ERA of 4.15 already. Granted that’s just five games, but no one expects the Giants’ pen to be anything special this year. Same as last year, the Giants are awful offensively as they are batting just .217 as a team so far. Johnny Cueto starts tonight and he’s getting up there in years. He went just four innings in his first start. 8* on SAN DIEGO

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee seemed well on its way to a second straight win in Pittsburgh last night. They led 6-2 going into the bottom of the 7th, but then the “script was flipped” on them from the previous night when they rallied back from four runs down to win. The Pirates tied it up in the bottom of the seventh and then Adam Frazier’s two run blast in the 8th proved to be the difference maker. Both teams are 2-3 coming into tonight where the Brewers are again favored and for good reason. Both teams are going for their first series win and will turn to their respective Opening Day starters. But whereas Milwaukee has yet to lose two in a row, Pittsburgh hasn’t won two in a row this season. Woodruff seems like a solid bet for Milwaukee after he gave up just two runs in his first start. We have much more concern over Musgrove for Pittsburgh as he allowed a pair of home runs on Opening Day. Musgrove also has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

This series was originally set to take place in Toronto, but when COVID-19 made that an impossibility the series was moved to D.C. Homefield didn’t help the Nationals last night, who fell to 1-4 with a 5-1 loss. The Blue Jays scored three unearned runs Tuesday night, which was a big part of the difference. But tonight Washington has Max Scherzer starting and that should ensure the World Series champs get back on track. Obviously the current situation has to be a huge distraction for the Jays as they are still working on setting up a “permanent” home in Buffalo (where their “home games” will be played this year). Scherzer did struggle on Opening Night vs. the Yankees, though he did have 11 strikeouts. Expect him to settle down and pitch even better on Wednesday. In addition to having a 2.99 career ERA here at Nationals Park, Scherzer also boasts a 2.24 ERA in nine starts vs. Toronto. The fact that Toronto is the designated “home team” for the next two days obviously means next to nothing. Tonight’s starter Nate Pearson is a touted prospect, but won’t be enough to get the job done. 10* on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

The Rockies didn’t do a ton of scoring in Texas during the 1st series of the young season. In fact, all three games stayed Under as they managed just eight runs total. But the bigger story was their pitching, which held the Rangers to only five runs. As a result, Colorado won two of the three games. That was a new stadium the Rockies were playing in and it remains to be seen if they can keep up that level of pitching prowess as they move to Oakland Tuesday. The A’s posted a 3-0 shutout here yesterday, making it a 3-1 start for them. The A’s bullpen was really good against the Angels, but may not be able to keep that up vs. a NL team playing with a DH. Daniel Mengden had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and only one of the five starts was a quality one. Colorado starter Senzatela may have bigger problems as his ERA was 7.29 away from home in 2019. We “smell” an Over here as neither pitching staff is likely to perform as well as they did over the weekend. 10* on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the DODGERS

What many would consider a potential World Series matchup goes down Tuesday in Houston as the Astros host the Dodgers. It says a lot that the road team is favored so definitively in this spot. While the Dodgers shockingly split their four-game series with the Giants (lost the last two days), they are the consensus best team for 2020. Houston had quite the offseason with the franchise’s reputation forever tainted due to the cheating scandal. Despite this, they’ve opened 3-1. But that was against the Mariners. It’s a big jump in class for them here (as it is for the Dodgers). For Tuesday’s opener, the starting pitching matchup decidedly favors the Dodgers. They go with Walker Buehler who had 215 strikeouts in 182 innings last year. Buehler allowed 1 or 0 runs 16 times in 2019. For the Astros, Framber Valdez is someone with a 5.25 ERA in 13 starts. The Astros starting rotation is simply not as strong as it's been in past years and that’s an issue facing a Dodgers lineup that is as strong as any in the league. It won’t make up for the 2017 World Series, but LA wins here. Play on LA DODGERS

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee may very well have “broken” Pittsburgh’s spirit with a four-run rally in the ninth Monday. The road team would go on to win 6-5 in 11 innings and for a Pirates team that’s not very good, that result is likely to be a “backbreaker.” It was somewhat remarkable that the Pirates went into the 9th with a 5-1 lead as they’d collected only four hits the entire game. So maybe what happened late was a case of “just desserts.” Regardless of WHY it happened, the rally last night by the Brewers is likely to carry over to this game. The Pirates pitching staff is in rough shape as Derek Holland (8.10 ERA last year for the Giants) gets the start. The bullpen struggles were on full display last night as closer Keone Kela is out because of COVID-19 concerns. Josh Lindblom gets the start for the Brewers after spending the last two years pitching in Korea where he was that league’s best pitcher. Yesterday was the Bucs chance to “steal” one and they failed. Their offense has been unable to score more than five runs in any game so far. 10* on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on DETROIT

Taking Detroit, you ask? The Tigers put forth one of the more hideous seasons in recent memory last year, however, they are 2-1 so far in 2020. Furthermore, the team they took two of three from was the heavily hyped Reds and they did so on the road. Now the Tigers actually find themselves favored to win a game, something that was only the case 26 times in all of ‘19. The key is that they are facing the Royals at home. Kansas City is also a team you shouldn’t expect much from in this abbreviated 60-game season. They lost two of three at Cleveland in their first series and scored only five runs in the three games. Monday’s starter for the Royals will be Mike Montgomery and he allowed two home runs in his final exhibition outing, which isn’t a good sign. The Tigers are going with an opener for their home opener and it will be Michael Fulmer, who has not pitched in a major league game since 2018 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fulmer was AL Rookie of the Year back in 2016 though and it speaks volumes that he and the Tigers are favored in this spot. 10* DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* play on TEXAS

This is Corey Kluber’s debut outing for the Rangers and we anticipate it will go well. While the Rangers did lose yesterday, their first loss in their new home ballpark, it was a close affair (3-2) that saw them actually outhit the Rockies. There hasn’t been much offense so far in this series as Texas took the first game 1-0. Kluber keeping Colorado in check should not prove difficult as this is a lineup that hit just .230 on the road last season, which was the worst average in all of the majors. Kluber has something to prove here in his first start in almost 15 months. It was only a couple seasons ago that he was regarded among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland was pretty lousy last year as his 3-11 record will tell you. The Rockies have just nine hits so far. Texas stranded 12 runners in Saturday’s game including multiple in four consecutive innings. 8* on TEXAS

AAA

This is an 8* on ST LOUIS

We had the Cardinals yesterday (our Game of the Week!) and are going back to that well again Sunday. The Pirates aren’t going to be very good in Derek Shelton’s first season on the bench. Even with the DH, their lineup hasn’t managed much in the first two games. They had three hits yesterday and scored only one run. Remember that the Bucs are beginning 2020 with a somewhat depleted lineup. They’ve had little luck beating St. Louis these last couple seasons. They’re just 13-26 against the Redbirds since 2018 including 5-15 the last 20 games. Keller, their top pitching prospect, will start Sunday. St. Louis has never faced him but we expect another strong effort at the plate from the home team. Keller was just 1-5 with an ERA above 7.00 in 2019. He’s being opposed by Dakota Hudson, a pitcher that has won five straight starts against division opponents. Hudson also won 16 games last year. 8* ST LOUIS

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5

Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

With no fans in attendance, the Astros don’t have to worry about being booed out of stadiums. Not that such a thing would have transpired yesterday. They were at home and beat the Seattle Mariners as expected, 8-2. The Astros went 18-1 against the Mariners this year so they’re expecting to sweep this first start of the season. Of course, they’ll be priced accordingly. So look at the total instead. Seattle has scored two or fewer runs 8 of the last 10 meetings with the ‘Stros. We can see that trend continuing here. Both runs yesterday came on solo home runs. On the other hand, Houston’s five-run inning that propelled them to victory last night likely won’t be replicated here. Lance McCullers will likely shut down the weak Mariners lineup while Seattle starter Taijuan Walker should pitch okay. Another issue for the Mariners last night was a sloppy defense. Assuming they clean up the fielding, the Astros won’t be getting as many chances at the plate.The Under is 13-5 the past 18 times when Seattle’s opponent scored 5 or more in its last game. 10* UNDER SEATTLE/HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 7* on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia was one of the few favorites on the board that lost last night. We don’t see them losing again to the Marlins and thus are playing accordingly. A 1-1 game turned into a 5-1 Marlins’ advantage thanks to one big inning last night. However let us not forget how horrible Miami has been on the road these last few seasons (53-109 record!). Five Phillies hitters, including Bryce Harper, combined to go 0 for 19 at the plate last night. That won’t be happening again. There was some debate over whether Zach Wheeler would be able to make his scheduled start for the Phillies. He will and figures to pitch well considering his 7-3 career record vs. Miami that comes with a 1.91 ERA. Wheeler should also be inspired by the fact that his wife just gave birth (which is why there was some debate if he would make this start). Chris Smith pitched okay down the stretch last year for the Marlins, but we just don’t see this team winning two days in a row on the road. 7* on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS

While the NL Central is definitely “up for grabs,” the Pirates still figure to finish in last place this year. St. Louis had the Bucs number last year, taking 14 of 19 overall and they are 25-13 against them the last two years. They opened the 2020 season with a 5-4 win, never trailing in the process. Three Pittsburgh players testing positive for COVID-19 and two more being out for the season due to injuries doesn’t help the cause. St. Louis’ starter for Saturday (Wainwright) has faced the Pirates many times in his career. He faced them five times last year and the Cards won four of those games, the only loss coming by a score of 2-1. Wainwright also had much better numbers at Busch Stadium compared to the road in 2019. Trevor Williams starts for Pittsburgh. Last year he went 7-9 and finished with a 5.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Those are not good numbers, we don’t expect him to pitch well in this spot and you should definitely back the home team in this one. 10* on ST LOUIS

AAA

PICK IS FOR TOMORROW'S GAME

pick is for TOMORROW'S GAME

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Seems to be a lot of fanfare surrounding the White Sox coming into the season. But we’re not yet ready to put them in the same class as the two top teams in the division. The Twins are the favorites to win the AL Central this year, as they should be, based on last year’s results. Minnesota was 13-6 vs. Chicago in 2019 and 12-7 head to head the season prior. Friday starter Lucas Giolito was strong for the White Sox last year, but he did have one terrible start against the Twins where he gave up four home runs and seven runs total. If that’s not rough enough, Minnesota’s offense should be even more productive this year. Josh Donaldson is now part of a lineup that set the single season home run mark a year ago. How about Jose Berrios? The Twins starter for Friday pitched quite well in 2019 including FOUR wins over the White Sox in five tries. The Twins are 37-15 their last 52 games as a road favorite, so watch the line. They are also 60-27 their last 87 division games.  10* on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5

Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

There's a lot to digest coming into the first ever World Series Game 7 where two former Cy Young winners will be starting. The road team has won all six games so far, which is really surprising given how good of a home team the Astros are. Even with the three losses to the Nationals, Houston's record at Minute Maid Park is 65-25 this year and they have scored 159 more runs than they have allowed in those 90 games. Only one time, a three-game losing streak to Oakland last month, have the Astros lost more than two in a row at home in 2019. Thus, with everything on the line tonight, we can't see them losing a 4th straight home game. We just can't. While many inside the Washington clubhouse are probably ecstatic over the fact Max Scherzer gets to start Game 7, he is a huge question mark after being scratched from Game 5 because of neck spasms. Those spasms reportedly led to him being unable to even lift his arm. Scherzer probably still pitches well, but won't match Zack Greinke, whose only quality start this postseason was the one time he got to start at home. Going back to the start of the series, the Astros were the biggest WS favorite since 2007. Though it always hasn't been apparent, they do have the better bullpen. We like Houston to win the Fall Classic at home. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

THis is a 10* on the UNDER

While all the focus remains on the fact the home team is 0-6, the only game to go Under in this World Series was Game 3 in Washington and that was with the pitchers having to come up to bat. But with the stakes at their highest and two starters the caliber of Scherzer and Greinke going in Game 7, we're calling for a low-scoring game. Greinke's only WS start was Game 3 and he held the Nationals to one run in 4 2/3 IP. Tonight marks just the second time Greinke has started at home in these playoffs. The first was his best outing of the postseason as he went six innings and held the Yankees to three runs. His home ERA and WHIP for the year are 3.61 and 1.055 respectively. But Grienke isn't the only former Cy Young winner pitching tonight. Scherzer, who was scratched from Game 5 due to neck spasms, makes it the first ever WS Game 7 where two former Cy Youngs are starting. Assuming Scherzer is okay, he too should pitch well here. He has a 2.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 road starts. His last three starts overall have yielded a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Really, we shouldn't have to delve too deep into how good the two starters here truly are. It's surprising that the Over is 5-1 in this series considering the home team has averaged just 2.0 runs/game! Under is 6-1 last seven times Grienke has started on four days rest. Under is also 9-2 Scherzer's last 11 Interleague starts. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The road team is 3-0 in this World Series. The Over won in Games 1 and 2. The Under came in for Game 3. If you’re looking for a pattern with the total, the two Overs hit in the American League park (pitchers don’t have to bat) while the Under hit in a National League park (pitchers have to come up to bat). Looking at these patterns, you’d expect the home team to win a game eventually. It might happen tonight. But we aren’t willing to bet on it. The Under seems like the right call. While there’s no “ace” on the mound tonight, Pat Corbin has pitched very well for Washington this year, especially when at home. Corbin has a 14-3 TSR here in the Beltway. He also has a 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. You have to remember the Houston lineup is not at full strength with the DH out. Urquidy will get the start in Game 4 for the Astros. While this is his first postseason start, he allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five regular season starts. Play UNDER Houston-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

At the beginning of this series, the Astros were listed as the biggest favorite for any World Series going back to 2007. Not anymore. They lost both Games 1 and 2 at home and are now in a real hole as the series moves to Washington. The Nationals have won 18 of their last 20 including eight straight. The last time a team lost Games 1 and 2 at home and went on to win the WS was 1996. It's only happened three times in history. But we're willing to throw our weight behind Zack Greinke and Houston tonight. This Astros team is too good to lose three in a row. That's happened only five times all season and two of those five losing streak were before the end of April. Greinke has pitched quite well against Washington in his career. He's 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in nine starts and one of those came this year in this stadium. As a member of Arizona, Greinke threw 7 1/3 shutout innings where he allowed only two hits. The Astros are 23-5 when playing after an off-day. The numbers say Washington's Game 3 starter Anibal Sanchez pitches better on the road than here at home. It's a must-win for the Astros and we'll play accordingly. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 6* on HOUSTON

It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massie favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight and that gives them a huge edge against any opponent, even the Nationals with Max Scherzer going opposite Cole. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Astros have won the last 16 times Cole has started! Scherzer is great in his own right, but Cole is simply on a different level right now. The Nationals are just 9-11 this season as a road underdog of +125 or more. The Astros are 65-22 at home, outscoring teams by almost two full runs per game, and they are 23-8 priced between -175 and -250. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

THis is a 9* play on the UNDER

It’s come down to the Nationals and the Astros in the World Series. The AL contingent is a massive favorite here, not just for Game 1 but the series in general. They have Gerrit Cole pitching tonight. Cole is probably going to be the AL Cy Young winner. He checks in with a 23-5 WL record this year, a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only gotten more impressive with a postseason resume that includes a 0.40 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three starts. He’s allowed 1 run in 22 ⅔ innings and has 32 strikeouts. The Under is 5-1-1 in Cole’s last seven starts (0.71 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) with just the one Over being the only game where there were more than seven combined runs scored. Houston should feel lucky to have Cole pitching tonight because Washington has Max Scherzer. Scherzer also has a 3-0 TSR in the playoffs to go along with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. For the year, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. On the road, those numbers slightly improve to 2.43 and 0.91. When Scherzer and those kind of numbers represent the second best starter in a given matchup, the game is probably going Under. Play UNDER Washington-Houston

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