Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Orlando is getting a lot of points here. The Magic won Game 1 outright, but since then it's gone 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the surging Bucks. Do I think that the Magic are going to win this contest outright? I do not. Note though that Orlando has been just a single 3-point shot away in each of the last three games to actually cover the spread. And now it's getting more points in Game 5 than in any other to this point. The pick: The strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side, but note that the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win, while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss. Orlando's players are playing for a position on the team next year and I don't expect it to go down without a fight tonight. Grab the points. This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic. |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: It's do or die for the Nuggets. The Jazz have looked great over their last two games, but I think Utah doesn't have that "killer instinct" in it and I look for it to struggle against this desperate Nuggets side. The Nuggets got 50 points from Jamal Murray in the 129-127 Game 4 setback. The pick: Utah shot almost 60% from the field in Game 4 and I simply don't see that happening again either. Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous game, while the Jazz are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oklahoma City had won five straight ATS in this series before the two SU/ATS playoff losses to the Rockets. OKC is filled with talent and Houston has been dealing with injuries, so I'm a little surprised to this point. In fact in Game 2 the Thunder eneterd the fourth quarter with a 1 point lead, but they ended up losing by 13. The pick: Thunder guard Chris Paul was only 6 of 15 in Game 2 and I don't see that happening again. I'll still argue that the Thunder are the "deeper" team and I'll point out as well that they're 10-5 ATS in their last 15 following back-to-back losses, which includes a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks could easily be up 2-0 in this series if star center Kristaps Porzingis wasn't ejected in the second period of Game 1. Dallas was clearly the better team in Game 2 and with the Clippers dealing with injuries to important players still, I have a hard time seeing LA keeping pace with this well oiled Mavericks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder right now. The pick: LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as well after a ten points or larger loss in its last game. Does Dallas have a legitimate shot at winning Game 3 outright? With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe it does. And so do I. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz +2 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver beat the Jazz in double OT in the regular seaosn and then it also managed to pull for an OT win in Game 1 of this series. The Jazz battled tough though and in Game 2 they laid down the 124-105 smack down and I think they can build off that victory with another one in Game 3. The pick: And guess what? Utah won Game 2 without the services of star guard Mike Conley, who now returns to the team after the birth of his son. Additionally note that the Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 10 points or larger victory. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +6 v. Lakers | 88-111 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Not many would disagree that the teams that doe the best in the playoffs are the one's that are exhibiting the best "chemistry." You can have all the talent in the World on paper, but if you aren't working together as a team, that talent often gets wasted or exploited by units which are playing at an extremely high level together. LA has struggled to cover the spread since the re-start and despite being down 0-1, I don't expect Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to go easy in Game 2. The pick: Additionally note that LA is now 0-5 ATS in its last five conference quarter-final contests, while Portland is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 overall. Grab the points. This is an 8* SURE SHOT DESTRUCTION on the Blazers. |
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08-20-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana was swept in four games by the Celtics in the first round last year. So far the Pacers are only 1-4 vs. the Heat this season, including falling both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this series. Indiana is led by TJ Warren and with revenge on their minds, I believe the more experienced and hungrier Pacers will bounce back and deliver the goods here. The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Indiana has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after losing by ten or more points in a playoff contest. Look for Indiana to at the very least, push Miami until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks had an eight point lead half way through the third quarter of Game 1, and then big man Kristaps Porzingis got ejected and the Mavs fell apart mentally and failed to cover the spread in the end. Porzingis is back though in Game 2 and I do legitimately believe that Dallas has a chance at taking Game 2 outright. LA is still dealing with several key players missing and I think that catches up to them here. The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers are still a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-18-20 | Magic +10 v. Bucks | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I took this game early and have an unfavorable line, but I still love this play and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the deep and talented Magic will easily keep this one close enough to cover with the ample points they've been afforded. Both teams were 3-5 in the bubble. The Bucks swept all four regular season games, but the Magic were dealing with several injuries to key players back then. Orlando has Vucevic back which is signficant, but is dealing with an injury to Aaron Gordon, meaning that Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier will have to step up here. The pick: I think the Bucks classically get caught a bit complacent in this very first game. Milwaukee is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a ten points or greater loss (fell 119-106 to the Grizz.) The odds are clearly against Orlando winning this series or this game, but if it has any shot, it will be in trying to pull off the upset in Game 1. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Magic. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Clippers really deeper and more talented than the Mavericks? Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, but I'd argue that Montrezl Harell's absence for LA is the most significant. Also note that Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both questionable for this one as well. The Mavs have a possible injury to Seth Curry, but guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke have been very steady for the Mavs. The pick: I'll point out as well that the Clippers are a devastatingly poor 8-22 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The Clippers supporting cast is banged up, while the Mavs have two stars in Luca Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing at their highest level of their careers. The outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Mavericks. |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ja Morant hasn't played very well in the Bubble, but the dynamic guard has a chance to reverse his fortunes here in which he hopes will be a two-game play in series. If Portland wins, then this series is over and the Blazers will go on to face the Lakers. But if Memphis wins, these two teams will play a second game. Portland has played well behind Damian Lillard, but the Grizzlies matchup well with Portland in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the +6 to +12 range. In a game which comes down to the wire, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flyers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yes the Flyers looked great over their three-game round robin, they annihilated Tampa, Washington and Dallas. The Flyers look "for real," but I think they'll have all they can handle from the Canadiens in this first game. The pick: The Habs were fantastic in dispatching the Penguins as they continue to get a high level of play from star goaltender Carey Price. Montreal is deep and it benefited from the extra time off. In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals. This is an 6* play on the Habs PUCK LINE. |