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Will Rogers ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
02-09-24 Dayton v. VCU UNDER 135.5 47-49 Win 100 9 h 24 m Show

These teams faced each other 3x in 2023. All 3 went under the total, as all 3 meetings finished with 125 or fewer points. Scores were 63-62 and 62-58 in the regular season and 68-56 in the A-10 Tournament.

The Rams have gone under 4 straight times and they are 6-0 to the under their last 6 against winning teams.

The Flyers are off a big offensive output at St. Joseph's but they'll face a better defense tonight. The Flyers are 7-3 to the under the last 10 times that they played a road game with a total of 135 to 139.5, a 4-0 under mark this season. Let's avoid Overtime and this game will stay under the total!

02-09-24 Metz v. Marseille UNDER 2.5 Top 1-1 Win 100 6 h 47 m Show

Marseille is struggling to score right now. They lost 1-0 to Lyons last match. Three of their last 4 matches have finished with 3 or fewer combined goals.

Marseille is struggling to score at the moment. Metz just struggles to score, period. Only last place Clermont scores fewer goals. In fact, they've only found the back of the net twice over their last 7 Ligue 1 matches. Five of those 7 matches finished with 2 goals or less and today's will do the same.

02-08-24 Pistons v. Blazers OVER 225 Top 128-122 Win 100 10 h 58 m Show

Detroit is off a 133-120 win last night. The Pistons are 5-1 to the over when off a SU win, 5-0 if that victory was an upset. The Pistons, 5-3 to the over when playing with 0 day's rest in between games, are 17-6 to the over on the road this season. The over is also 30-15 when they were underdogs.

Last year's game here had a total of 231.5 and finished with 241 points. At this stage of the season, there's not much reason for playing defense for these teams and tonight's game will also fly over the total. Go with the Over!

02-08-24 Abilene Christian v. Seattle University UNDER 144.5 52-75 Win 100 10 h 52 m Show

For under bettors, Seattle home games are the gift that keeps on giving. In Seattle's last 41 home lined games, the Redhawks are 30-9-2 to the under.This season, the Redhawks are allowing 64 points. Visiting teams hit only 40.4% of their field goals. Abilene Christian plays high-scoring games (158.4 points) at home but much lower-scoring (145.4 points) road games.

Last game, the Redhawks won 61-60. That was a road game. Last home game, they won 62-61. They will slow down the Wildcats and keep this final score below the total!

02-07-24 USC v. California UNDER 148.5 Top 77-83 Loss -109 10 h 8 m Show

These teams went over when they played on January 3rd. Both have playing lower-scoring games since then though and both cranked up the defensive intensity in winning their last game. The Trojans held Oregon State to only 54 points. The Golden Bears kept Arizona State to 66.

The Bears are now 5-3 to the under since facing USC, a perfect 3-0 under record their last 3. The Trojans are 5-2 to the under their last 7 games.

Games at USC have truly been high-scoring. Not so here in Berkeley. The Trojans last visit here produced only 117 points! The Bears are 7-1 to the under their last 8 against losing teams, after at least 15 games. This game goes under!

02-06-24 Mavs v. Nets OVER 235.5 119-107 Loss -110 11 h 34 m Show

Both teams went under last night but this will be a high-scoring game. Brooklyn is 4-2 to the over when playing with no rest, 2-0 to the over when playing at home after playing at home the previous day. Dallas is 5-3 to the over when playing with 0 days rest. Games are averaging 241.5 points.

The Mavericks go under against good teams but the opposite is true when they face weaker teams. They are 16-5 to the over against losing teams. Last meeting finished with 245 and last meeting in Brooklyn finished with 254. Go with the Over.

02-05-24 Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 146 Top 70-75 Win 100 13 h 32 m Show

Kansas comes in hot and defense has been a big part of the reason. The Jayhawks held Houston to 65 points last game. Before that, they limited Oklahoma State to only 56. They will face a Kansas State team which has scored 53 or less in 2 of its last 3 games.

This season, Kansas State has been going over the total against losing teams and staying under the total against winning teams. The Wildcats are 11-2 to the under against teams with a winning record.

Off a game Saturday, I will point out that Kansas is 3-0 to the under when playing with 0 or 1 day's rest in between games. The Jayhawks are 15-8 to the under in that situation their last 23.

K-State is 7-3 to the under when the total was in the 140s and 4-1 to the under at home when the total was 140 to 144.5. This game stays under! **BIG 12 TOY**

02-05-24 Sevilla v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 2.5 Top 2-1 Loss -145 7 h 41 m Show

If Rayo Vallecano can't find victory, a draw is a distinct possibility in this one. Three of the last 4 La Liga meetings between these clubs have ended in draws. I prefer the total.

Three of the last 4 h2h meetings have produced 2 or fewer goals. The last 2 h2h matches at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas both ended 1-1. That could happen again, as could a scoreless draw. A 1-0 (or 2-0) win for the home team is also possible. The visitors are likely to have trouble scoring, either way. Sevilla has only found the back of the net twice in its last 4 league matches. With only 3 total goals in its last 8 league matches, scoring is far from guaranteed for Rayo Vallecano. Both clubs are missing some key attacking pieces. This match goes Under!

02-04-24 Davidson v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 136.5 Top 63-76 Win 100 3 h 24 m Show

Last year's game had a low total and the final score snuck over it. This is another low total and the final score will again finish to the over.

Davidson games average 139.6 points. Loyola-Chicago games average 140.8. This total is lower than either of those numbers. Digging deeper reveals that Davidson road games are higher-scoring. The Wildcats are therefore 5-1 to the over on the road. Those true road games are averaging 150.

Loyola-Chicago is 11-2 to the over its last 13 home games when the total was in between 135 and 139.5 points. The Ramblers are also 4-1 to the over last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Go with the Over!

02-03-24 Syracuse v. Wake Forest UNDER 152.5 Top 70-99 Loss -109 10 h 50 m Show

The Orange are off a 77-72 loss to Pittsburgh. It was their 5th loss in ACC play. After their previous four ACC losses, they've cranked up their defense leading to the under going a perfect 4-0 the next game. Off a loss to Virginia, they beat Cornell 80-71. That game had a total of 165. Off a loss to Duke, they beat BC 69-59. Off a loss to UNC, they beat Pitt 69-58. Off a loss to Florida State, they beat NC State 77-65. Those four games didn't just go under, they EASILY went under!

We know the Orange crank up the defense off an ACC loss but it should also be understood that Wake Forest plays great defense at home. Visiting games are averaging only 64.1 points a game here, hitting 40.9% of their field goals. Four of the last 5 meetings at Wake have gone under. Go with the Under!

02-02-24 Toledo v. Akron UNDER 147.5 Top 70-77 Win 100 22 h 43 m Show

These are both good teams. They've been getting it done in different ways. Toledo has been winning by outscoring opponents. Akron has been winning by dominating teams with its smothering defense. It may be a different story for the rematch at Toledo but with this game being played at Arkon, the Zips will effectively dictate the tempo and slow down the Rockets to the level of their liking.

There are a lot of stats which point to this play staying below the total. Here are some of those: Akron is 6-3 to the under in conference play. The Zips are also 5-2 to the under in their home games. None of the Zips' last 10 opponents have scored more than 76 points. The last team that they faced scored only 46. Five of their last 6 games have gone under.

The Rockets are 5-2 to the under off a conference win and 2-0 to the under when playing a road game with a total of 145 to 149.5. The number is high and this game will go Under.

02-01-24 Lakers v. Celtics UNDER 241.5 Top 114-105 Win 100 10 h 41 m Show

I played on the Celtics over in their last game. The final score was 129-124. That was against Indiana though and the Celtics were playing their second game in 2 days. Totally different setup for this one. The Celtics are 17-11 to the under when playing with 1 day's rest. They are also 14-7 to the under when off an ATS loss.

The Lakers have had no trouble going over the total on the road this season, regardless of how high the total is set. That will change tonight though. The Celtcs are 17-9 to the under, 7-3 this season, their past 26 tries when playing at home game with a total of 230 or more. Go with the Under!

02-01-24 AFC Bournemouth v. West Ham United UNDER 3 1-1 Win 100 4 h 1 m Show

Bournemouth is normally capable of putting the ball in the back of the net but is going to have trouble scoring today. Not only has Bournemouth scored only once in the last 4 h2h matches but West Ham is a different team at home. Each of their last three Premier League home matches have seen the Hammers keep a clean sheet. The Hammers are dealing with some missing players. Both clubs are for that matter. That won't help the scoring. The last h2h match was a 1-1 final and the last at London Stadium was a 2-0 final. This one also stays at 2 or less!

01-31-24 Senators v. Red Wings UNDER 7 Top 3-2 Win 100 8 h 22 m Show

Sometimes, you need to take what the books are giving you. These teams never have totals of 7 when they play each other. A glance at the past 10 meetings reveals most 6.5s. The last meeting had a total of 6 and it finished with 6. We're getting a whole extra goal tonight.

The Red Wings have allowed 2 goals or less in consecutive games and 5 of their last 7. The Senators have allowed 3 or less in 6 of their last 7. This game goes Under!

01-30-24 Pacers v. Celtics OVER 244.5 Top 124-129 Win 100 10 h 52 m Show

The last meeting was on January 8th. The final combined score was 264, the Pacers finishing on top. With Indiana road games averaging more than 247 points, this will be another shootout.

Boston played last night. It's important to know that the Celtics are 24-11 to the over the past 35 times that they played 2 games in 2 days. The Celtics are also 9-4 to the over when in they were in a revenge situation.

The Pacers are 30-10 to the over their last 40 tries, when facing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Go with the Over.

01-29-24 Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Tex A&M Commerce OVER 140 Top 69-54 Loss -109 11 h 33 m Show

The Islanders scored 79 points last game. They have scored 73 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games, 80 or more in 3 of those.

The Lions are off an 87-84 loss. That game went to Overtime. So the score was a bit misleading. The scoring really picked up in the 2nd half and OT of that game though and will carry over into this game.

The most recent meeting between these teams was here at the end of last regular season. The score was 93-88. Once again, the game went to Overtime. There were still 156 points scored in regulation though. Last season's first meeting finished with 164. Both those games had totals in the 140s, the final scores easily finishing to the over.

The Islanders are 6-3 to the over their last 9 road games with a total of 140 to 144.5. The Lions are 3-0 to the over during same period, at home with a total in same range. This game goes OVER!

01-28-24 Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 Top 17-10 Win 100 143 h 19 m Show

The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high.

We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5.

These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday.

01-28-24 Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 56-99 Loss -110 4 h 14 m Show

When these schools squared off at Xavier, they combined for 155 points, an 80-75 win for Connecticut. The Musketeers aren't likely going to be able to score as well on the road. Visiting teams have had trouble scoring here. UConn hasn't allowed conceded more than 67 points in a home game this entire season.

In 8 Big East home games, the Huskies are allowing an average of 59 points per game. Creighton was the last guest and it scored only 48 points. Since the game at Xavier, the Huskies have allowed an average of 60 points. The Huskies will continue their strong defensive play at home and keep the final score under the total.

01-27-24 Kings v. Mavs UNDER 243 120-115 Win 100 11 h 25 m Show

The Mavericks played a very high-scoring game against Atlanta last night. You may have seen the highlights. Doncic had 73 points, tied for 4th most in NBA history.

The Hawks are a very weak defensive team. You might think the same of Sacramento. But it currently isn't true of the Kings. They are 13-8 to the under on the road. They held Dallas to 113 last game here.

The Mavericks were small underdogs for last night's game at Atlanta. They are a perfect 6-0 to the under the past 6 times that they were off a SU win as an underdog. This game will stay under the high total!

01-27-24 Yale v. Harvard UNDER 142.5 Top 78-65 Loss -110 5 h 31 m Show

Yale is 10-6 to the over this season. Harvard is 9-6 to the over. Those records are keeping this total in the 140s. Both schools are off a low-scoring game though. The Bulldogs just beat Dartmouth 76-51. The Crimson just won at Penn by a 70-61 score. 127 and 131 and we've got a total in the 140s.

The last 4 times that these rivals have faced each other the scores were 58-55, 62-59, 58-54 and 68-57. All went under. All finished with 125 or less.

Harvard is 7-2-1 to the under last 10 off a conference win. Yale is 6-2 to the under last eight when playing on the road and the total was in the 140 to 144.5 range. This game goes under!

01-23-24 Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 133.5 Top 90-58 Loss -110 11 h 9 m Show

Air Force has failed to score 70 points in any of its last 5 games. The Falcons will have trouble scoring against an angry UNLV team. The Rebels are 13-8 to the under the past 21 times that they were off a Mountain West Conf. loss.

If they were at home, they might score more but doing so on the road will be difficult. The Falcons are 20-11 to the under their last 31 on the road.

Last year's regular season meeting finished with only 107 points. The last 3 regular season meetings have all finished with 131 or less. This one does the same!

01-21-24 Bucs v. Lions UNDER 50 Top 23-31 Loss -110 33 h 35 m Show

The Buccaneers were involved in a shootout with the Texans back in Week 9. The final score was 39-37 as the game turned wild in the 4th quarter with 31 points. That was the only time all season that Tampa allowed more than 27 points. On the season, the Bucs allowed just 19.1 points, tied for 6th best. They have also really turned it up in recent weeks. They held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards in the Wildcard Rd and they allowed less than 12 points a game over the final 3 games of reg. season. In the final game, they pitched a shutout.

Tampa coach Todd Bowles said this of his defense: "We've gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks. Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. ... Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody's trusting each other next to them and they're playing for each other."

The Lions defense held the Rams to 6 second half points last week. They also held the Bucs to 6 points, a 20-6 win, during the regular season. Tampa had only 13 first downs and 251 total yards. That total was only 44. This one is a lot higher. Too high. Go with the Under.

01-21-24 West Ham United v. Sheffield United UNDER 2.5 Top 2-2 Loss -130 14 h 15 m Show

West Ham, off a 1-0 loss in FA Cup action, hasn't conceded a single goal in its last five league matches. Last league match was a 0-0 draw. Sheffield which has scored fewer goals than any club in the Premier League is unlikely to snap that streak. Sheffield has at least cleaned up defensively lately. Last league match was a 2-0 loss to Man. City. Four of the past 5 h2h matches have finished with 2 goals or less. With West Ham missing some key attacking pieces, this match will also be low-scoring.

01-20-24 Texans v. Ravens UNDER 44 Top 10-34 Push 0 10 h 19 m Show

The Texans have looked pretty good but they are now on the road and facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. No team allowed fewer points than the 16.5 ppg allowed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans held the Browns to 14 points and 324 yards. They weren't dominant defensively like the Ravens but ranked in the top half of all defenses for points and yards allowed.

In addition to allowing the fewest number of points, the Ravens led the league in rushing. They will keep the clock ticking and the Houston offense on the sidelines. Points will not come easily in this game. Go with the Under.

01-18-24 Avalanche v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 2-5 Loss -118 8 h 24 m Show

The Avalanche are 3-0 to the over on their current road trip. That changes tonight as they are now facing one of the stingiest teams in the National Hockey League. The Bruins are off a 3-0 shutout last game and they allow only 2.63 goals per game. The Avalanche are 3-0 to the under after playing their previous 3 on the road. They are also 9-4-3 5 to the under their last 16 visits to Boston. The Bruins are 40-26-7 to the under their last 63 home games when the total was 6 or more. Go with the Under.

01-17-24 Auburn v. Vanderbilt OVER 148.5 Top 80-65 Loss -110 12 h 42 m Show

Both these teams have seen more unders than overs. That's brought the total down for us today. It's now too low. Auburn averages more than 84 points a game, more than 82 a game on the road. The Tigers can and will score anywhere. They put up 93 points last game.

The Commodores know that they need to score, if they want to avoid embarrassment. Their last home game was a 78-75 loss to Alabama. That stayed under the total but that was a much higher number.

These teams will meet again at the end of January. Last year's first meeting finished with 174 points. This one will get over the 150 mark.

01-16-24 Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 Top 1-2 Loss -115 10 h 22 m Show

Two really bad teams. Do they even want to win? If so, who wants it more? In my estimation, its better not to lose sleep over the side and instead to focus on the total.

These teams are bad in no small part to their defense. The Sharks give up 4.05 goals per game. That's the most in entire NHL and the number climbs to 4.3 goals allowed per road game. The Blackhawks aren't far behind. They allow 3.65 goals per game, 4th worst in the NHL.

The last 3 meetings all finished with 7 goals. This one finishes with 6 or more, the over moving to 7-3 the past 10 times that Chicago played with 2 day's rest in between games.

01-15-24 Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 43 Top 9-32 Win 100 11 h 50 m Show

The Eagles offense stumbled down the stretch. The Eagles scored 10 points last game and that marked the 4th time in 6 games that they failed to reach the 20 point mark. The injury to Brown, their top receiver, is a big blow to the offense.

The Bucs got here by playing defense. They allow only 19.1 points a game while scoring just 20.5. Both quarterbacks are playing at less than 100%.

The Eagles won 25-11 when the teams met in the regular season. That was when Philadelphia was scoring with ease. The Eagles won't get that many this evening and the Bucs are likely to also have trouble scoring. The line is generous. Go with the Under.

01-15-24 Steelers v. Bills UNDER 38.5 17-31 Loss -109 7 h 23 m Show

With the game being moved from Sunday to Monday and that bringing improved weather, the total has climbed by quite a lot. It shot up over key numbers like 34 and 37 and is now too high.

The weather may be improved but its still not going to be pleasant. This game will feature an extra amount of pounding the ball on the ground.

Josh Allen said as much: "The wind may move the ball a little bit. Typically, it's going to be, with weather like this, a game that both teams are going to run the ball, and it's going to be very possession-limited ..."

Both teams were 11-6 to the under and both are coming off a strong defensive effort which stayed below the total. Go with the Under.

01-15-24 Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 228 115-124 Loss -113 4 h 35 m Show

High total for a Houston game. The Rockets are among the lower scoring teams in the league (bottom 10) but they are also among the stingiest. They allow the 5th least number of points in the NBA. The 76ers are mere percentage points behind them, allowing the 6th fewest number of points.

The game at Houston was high-scoring. The same was true last year. The rematch at Philadelphia was 28 points lower though. Rockets are 13-8 to the under when playing with revenge.

The 76ers just held high-scoring Sacramento to 93 points. That game stayed below the total by more than 30 points. Go with the Under.

01-15-24 Ohio State v. Michigan UNDER 147 65-73 Win 100 4 h 22 m Show

Both teams were playing a lot of of overs to start the season. Now that Big Ten play has been kicking into high gear, that's been changing. Today's total is still set quite high though. Too high.

Michigan's last game was a 64-57 loss. It marked the third straight Michigan game which went to the under.

Off a 71-60 loss to Wisconsin, Ohio State comes off consecutive games which went to the under. The Buckeyes are 3-1 to the under the last 4 times that they were road favorites of 3 or less. Both teams are badly in need of a win and they will battle on the defensive end. Go with the Under.

01-13-24 Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 43.5 Top 7-26 Loss -110 80 h 52 m Show

The Chiefs transformed themselves into a defensive team this year. The offense wasn't as potent and the defense picked up the slack. The Dolphins were explosive most of the season but their offense slowed down the stretch. Those are the biggest reasons why we're now working with a total in the low/mid 40s, as compared to a total of 51.5 when these teams faced each other back in November. That's a big drop. Too big!

It'll be cold but this is still Patrick Mahomes vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes still has Kelce to throw to and Tagovailoa's top target, Tyreek Hill will be playing his first game back at Arrowhead. These are some of the best offensive players on the planet and they won't be stopped by the cold.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on offense but their defense is severely depleted. They've given up 77 points in their last 2 games alone. Their games average more than 52 points. This one will finish over the low total! ***WILDCARD TOY***

01-13-24 Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 134.5 63-71 Win 100 4 h 55 m Show

Off a 71-60 win at Ohio State, the Badgers showed that they can really play defense. They're going to make scoring difficult for the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon.

Northwestern allows just 64 points a game on the road, scoring only 65. The Wildcats are 4-2 to the under in their away games. Twice within the last month, the Wildcats were held below 50 points.

Last year's game at Northwestern was quite low-scoring. It finished with 129 points. However, the game here at Wisconsin was ultra low-scoring. It finished with only 106 points. The Badgers are 5-2 to the under when the total was in the 130s. Go with the UNDER!

01-12-24 Hornets v. Spurs OVER 235 Top 99-135 Loss -110 9 h 20 m Show

What reason would these teams have to play defense against each other? They're a pair of non-playoff teams from opposite conferences. Frankly, neither plays much D regardless of opponent. Charlotte allows 120.9 points a game on the road. Teams hosting the Hornets hit a high 50.9% of their field goals. The Hornets are 5-1 to the over on the road when the total was set at 230 or more. The Spurs allow 124.7 points per game at home. They just scored 130 last game and they are 13-4 to the over at home. This game will fly over the total.

01-11-24 Senators v. Sabres UNDER 7 Top 3-5 Loss -120 11 h 41 m Show

This is a big total. Too big. Neither team was pleased with its number of goals allowed last game. Both will be looking to clean that up. Buffalo has already gone under 12 of 19 times, after giving up 4 or more goals. The Senators are 12-8 to the under after allowing 4 or more goals. For the past few seasons, Ottawa is 51-36 to the under after allowing 4 or more goals.

The Sabres are also 12-7 to the under when playing a home game with a total of 6 or more. The Sabres score less at home (2.8 gpg) than on the road. The under is 12-7 in their home games. Lastly, the under is 7-1-1 the past 3 seasons when these divisional foes have faced each other. Go with the Under! ***Atlantic Div TOY***

01-11-24 Nets v. Cavs UNDER 226.5 102-111 Win 100 6 h 55 m Show

Two previous games in Paris have averaged 226.5 points, right around where this O|U number has been set. The defensive minded Cleveland Cavaliers weren't among the previous contestants though. Cleveland ranks in the top 6 in terms of both points allowed and opponents field goal percentage. Both the Nets and Cavaliers play at a slower tempo than the majority of the league.

The under is 96-64-2 the last 162 times that Brooklyn played a game with a total of 220 or more.

The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 to the under this season against losing teams, 54-31-4 to the under, against sub-500 teams, he past few seasons. This game goes Under!

01-10-24 Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 Top 0-3 Win 100 12 h 15 m Show

The Golden Knights won the first meeting 7-0. The Avalanche are 10-3 to the under in 13 tries when playing with revenge. Over the past few seasons, Colorado is 44-26-1 to the under, when in a revenge situation.

The Golden Knights haven't played in some time. They are 2-1 to the under when having had 3 or more day's off. They are also 12-5-1 to the under against winning teams.

Before the 7-0 game, the previous six meetings between these teams had all finished with 5 goals or less. The under was 6-0. This game will be low-scoring! ***NHL TOW***

01-09-24 Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 235 Top 120-103 Loss -109 10 h 35 m Show

No Morant. No problem. The Grizzlies just scored 121 in a victory at Phoenix. They scored 127 in their previous game. Each of the games on the current road trip have seen at least 236 points scored. On the season, Grizzly road games are much higher-scoring than games played at Memphis.

The Mavericks are the opposite of the Grizzlies. Their home games have been much higher-scoring than their road games. Games here average 237. The over is 7-2 when they play within their division.

Dallas has played much higher-scoring games against bad teams than good ones. The Mavericks scored 139 the last time that they faced a losing team. On the season, the over is 15-4 in 19 tries when the Mavericks were matched up against a team with a losing record. Go with the Over! ***SouthWest Division TOM***

01-07-24 Bears v. Packers UNDER 45 Top 9-17 Win 100 9 h 37 m Show

Both these teams got a lot better as the season progressed. The Bears started terribly but have currently won back-to-back games and have victories in 4 of their last 5. The Packers entered November with a 2-5 record but now find themselves at 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny.

A big part of the reason for the improvement comes on the defensive side. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points four times. They have 16 takeaways during that time. In fact, the Bears defense now leads the NFL in interceptions.

The Packers just held the Vikings to 10 points to close out 2023. Minnesota managed just 211 yards.

The last meeting at Lambeau finished with 37 points. With both offenses missing some important players, the final score will again stay below the total! ***NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH***

01-07-24 Vikings v. Lions UNDER 46.5 Top 20-30 Loss -111 5 h 19 m Show

Still angry about last week's controversy, the Lions say they want to win. The Vikings technically still have hope. Realistically, however, this game likely doesn't mean much. The Vikings won't be going to the playoffs and the Lions will be locked into the #3 seed.

Nick Mullens is back at QB and he threw 4 picks last time these teams met. He will miss throwing to Hockensen. The reliable tight-end had 4 receptions for 58 yards in the first meeting.

For all the bluster, I'm projecting a lower scoring game. Detroit is off a 20-19 loss. Minnesota managed only 10 points last week and has scored just 71 total points over the last 5 games, an average of 14. Vikings are 5-3 to the under on the road. This one will also stay under! ***EARLY RISER***

01-06-24 Texans v. Colts UNDER 47.5 Top 23-19 Win 100 85 h 35 m Show

First game went over but these teams are not the same ones that faced each other at beginning of the season. Both offenses are missing a lot of important weapons. First game had a total of 40.5 This one is much higher. That gives us a lot more room to maneuver.

The Texans defense has come to life. Last week, Houston allowed only 3 points. They gave up just 11 first downs and 187 total yards. Last road game, the Texans allowed only 16 points.

The Colts last 3 games have all finished with 43 points or less. They are going to want to run the ball. The Texans are strong at stopping the run. This will add up to a low-scoring defensive battle. ***AFC TOM***

01-06-24 Denver v. Northern Colorado UNDER 167.5 Top 82-86 Loss -110 13 h 1 m Show

I'm aware of the O|U stats. Both teams have gone over at an alarming rate. Both this season and for the past few seasons. Obviously, I'm not the only one that sees this. With every passing over, the numbers keep going up and up. Now we get a total approaching 170. That's too high. Even for these teams. For the record, its by far the highest total that either team has seen all year. Games on this floor are averaging 149.6 points this season. They may get a few more than that this game but they won't get enough to finish over the inflated total. Go with the Under! ***TOM***

01-05-24 Wolverhampton v. Brentford UNDER 2.5 Top 1-1 Win 100 5 h 54 m Show

These clubs just faced each other in EPL action. It was a high-scoring 4-1 win for Wolverhampton. Now they meet in the third round of FA Cup play. Wolverhampton is missing its top scorer, Hwang Hee-chan. Brentford will be happy he's not available as he just scored twice against them. The aggressive attacker will be missed.

Prior to the 4-1 match, two previous matches between these clubs resulted in scores of 2-0 and 1-1. Without Hwang Hee-chan terrorizing the Bees, this FA Cup match will play out like those two previous matches. Go with the Under. ***FA CUP TOW***

01-04-24 Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 234.5 Top 130-127 Win 100 12 h 2 m Show

The recent Christmas Day game snuck under the closing total, barely. A low-scoring 4th quarter did in those who bet the over. Tonight's game will be higher-scoring.

The last 4 meetings have all taken place in Denver. The last time that the Nuggets played here, the teams combined for 251 points. The last 5 meetings here are 4-1 to the over.

The Warriors weren't happy with the way the Christmas game went down. They thought the officiating was poor. Their last 2 games have had 236 points and 254. They are 12-4 to the over their last 16 when playing with revenge. Go with the OVER! ***WESTERN CONF TOM***

01-03-24 Xavier v. Villanova OVER 140.5 Top 65-66 Loss -115 10 h 28 m Show

Both teams entered the Christmas break streaking to the under. The long layoff and the start of Big East Conference play will change things up.

Last year's totals were set at 145.5 and 147.5. Tonight's number isn't as high meaning we don't need to score as many. Xavier games are averaging 145 points.

The Musketeers are 9-4 to the over the past 13 times they were off a game where they allowed 60 or fewer points. Over the same period, they are 2-0 to the over when playing with 7 or more day's rest.

The Wildcats scored 84 last game but the total snuck under because Depaul couldn't score. Xavier will be more competitive.

Last year's game at Villanova sailed over the total. The final score was 88-80. This game will also go Over! ***BIG EAST TOM***

01-03-24 Atletico Madrid v. Girona UNDER 3 Top 3-4 Loss -130 8 h 6 m Show

This is a battle of top clubs. Girona FC is tied (with Real Madrid) with 45 points, most in La Liga. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona are next with 38 points a piece. Both can score but both are also adept at keeping the ball out of the net.

Girona is off a 1-1 draw. Atletico Madrid is off a 1-0 victory. Three of its last 4 games have finished with 2 goals or less.

Girona can score but doesn't usually do so against Atletico Madrid. The last h2h meeting had a final score of 1-0. The last 5 h2h matches have all finished with three goals or less. Four of those finished below that mark. This one will too. Go with the UNDER! ***LA LIGA TOY***

01-02-24 UAB  v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 157.5 Top 78-76 Win 100 10 h 38 m Show

This number is too high! Both teams have gone over lately so that has given us a large number. Conference play is different though. This is the first AAC game of the season for both and there will be some added defensive intensity.

UAB plays lower-scoring games on the road than it does at home. The opposite is true of UTSA. The Roadrunners play lower-scoring games at home. Games here average 155 but UAB road games average just 145.4.

Six of the past 9 meetings here in San Antonio have gone to the under. Give me the Under! ***AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH***

01-01-24 Golden Knights v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 Top 0-3 Win 100 8 h 30 m Show

The first outdoor game ever played in Seattle will be a good one. They're expecting a great turnout to see the Kraken host the defending Stanley Cup champions. I won't worry about who wins but I really like the total. Even if the ice conditions aren't an issue, this has all the makings of a defensive game.

This will be the 4th meeting since the start of 2023. Two in April and one in October. Scores of those games were 4-1, 3-1 and 3-1.

Vegas has scored 3 goals or less in three straight games. Seven goals over the 3-game span. Seattle has scored 3 or fewer goals in 6 straight games. During those 6 games, the Kraken scored just 14 goals. Their last 4 games had scores of 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 and 3-2. Go with the Under. **NHL TOM**

01-01-24 Newcastle United v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 2-4 Loss -115 8 h 10 m Show

This number is too high! Liverpool doesn't concede. The Reds have allowed only 16 goals in 19 league matches. Every other club has allowed at least 20.

Newcastle has allowed only 25 goals in 19 EPL matches. Thats 4th best in the league behind only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal.

Four meetings since 2022 have produced scores of 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 2-1. Go with the UNDER! **EPL DELIGHT**

01-01-24 Iowa v. Tennessee OVER 35 Top 0-35 Push 0 44 h 28 m Show

This is obviously a very low total. Too low! Playing at a very fast pace, the Volunteers average 31.5 points and their games average 53.5. They scored 48 last game and allowed 38 and 36 in their previous 2 games.

The Volunteers had a game back in mid-October which finished with 33 points. Other than that, every other one of their games produced at least 43 points. The Vols QB (Milton) opted-out but his replacement (Iamaleava) is a bigtime player who will assume the starting role next season. Offensively, they're still in good shape. However, the Tennessee secondary did take a lot of hits and is depleted.

The time off will allow Iowa's offense time to prepare. Again, Tennessee's defense isn't 100%. The Hawkeyes have scored 21, 17, 49 and 27 their past 4 bowl games. Even if they get 14-17 here, which they will, the Volunteers will be able to do the rest. ***BOWL TOM***

01-01-24 Wisconsin v. LSU UNDER 57 31-35 Loss -110 44 h 36 m Show

The Tigers were an over machine all year. They're a little short-handed offensively for the bowl game though and they face a defensive-minded Wisconsin team which has trouble scoring.

Badger games average 41.7 points. The Wisconsin offense is also short-handed and won't be able to take advantage of a mediocre Tiger defense.

On the season, the Badgers were 8-4 to the under. They were only underdogs once. That game had a total of 48 and finished with 34. Go with the Under! ***EARLY RISER***

12-31-23 Packers v. Vikings OVER 43 Top 33-10 Push 0 14 h 6 m Show

Detroit has clinched the division but these teams are both still alive in the Wildcard hunt. The winner of this game will have a reasonable chance. The loser will pretty much have no hope. I'm not going to speculate on who wins. Instead, I'm going with the over.

The Packers are 5-0 to the over their last 5 games. Each of those games had at least 46 points. The last one had 63.

The Vikings are 2-0 to the over their last 2 games. Both finished with more than 50.

This season's first meeting was low-scoring. That also happened last year. The second game was much higher-scoring, finishing with 58 points last New Year's Day. This number is too low. Go with the Over. ***NFC North TOM***

12-31-23 Arizona State v. California UNDER 149.5 Top 71-69 Win 100 14 h 51 m Show

This total is too high. Arizona State saw its last game go over by half a point. A tough loss for anyone who bet the under. The Sun Devils scored only 49 and 56 points in their last two games before the Stanford win.

The Golden Bears got lit up by Arizona last game. The Sun Devils aren't the Wildcats though. Off that loss, Cal will look to bounce back with a much better defensive display.

The last meeting was also a tough loss for anyone who bet the under. It finished with 132 points, a game that had a total of 128.5. That went to Overtime though. Only 114 points were scored in regulation. None of the last 5 meetings have gone over 140.

Even off the Stanford result, the Sun Devils are 4-1 to the under as underdogs. They are also 13-5 to the under their last 18 against sub-500 competition. Go with the Under. ***PAC 12 TOY***

12-30-23 Brentford v. Crystal Palace UNDER 2.5 1-3 Loss -140 4 h 37 m Show

Brentford has scored only 3 goals in its past 4 matches. The Bees had 3 goals against Luton Town, one of the worst teams in the EPL, on 12/2 but otherwise have managed only 2 goals in their past 6 matches.

Crystal Palace had an unlikely 2-2 draw against Manchester City on 12/16 but otherwise has managed only 5 goals in its other 6 matches.

Five h2h meetings had scores of 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0. Not sure that we get another draw but am expecting another low-scoring match. ***Golden Boot***

12-29-23 Capitals v. Islanders OVER 5.5 Top 1-5 Win 100 13 h 52 m Show

Previous meetings this season have had totals of 6 instead of 5.5. The lower number offers us excellent line value.

New York's last game had 7 goals. The previous game had 9. Three of the Capitals last 4 road games versus the Islanders have finished with at least 6 goals.

Washington allowed 5 goals last game. The Capitals have struggled to score in recent games and will be pleased to know that the Islanders are missing a few defensemen.

The Islanders are 20-14-1 to the over this season. Go with the over. ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

12-29-23 Wright State v. Green Bay OVER 147 Top 77-88 Win 100 6 h 19 m Show

Wright State is a top team in the Horizon League. The Raiders play very fast and have a lot of scoring talent. They are averaging more than 84 points a game. Last 4 games, they scored 81, 84, 92 and 101.

Though they don't score the same way that Wright State does, the Phoenix scored 79 points last game. They average 68.8 points at home. Because Wright State pushes the pace, opposing teams tend to score a lot. The Raiders are allowing 82.5 ppg on the road. All their road games have gone over.

The Raiders have scored 77, 77, 99 and 79 in the past 4 meetings, an average of 83. They will reach the 80 mark again this afternoon and the Phoenix will contribute the rest. ***HORIZON LEAGUE TOM***

12-29-23 Clemson v. Kentucky UNDER 44.5 38-35 Loss -107 5 h 25 m Show

Two strong defenses. Clemson allows less than 20 points a game. Kentucky allows less than 25, despite playing in the SEC and facing high-scoring teams like Georgia and Tennessee, as well as other top tier teams like Alabama and Missouri.

Two mediocre offenses. Neither team averaged 30 points this season. That's unheard of for Clemson in recent years. The Tigers had averaged 35.5 ppg in four years before Trevor Lawrence and they averaged roughly 44 ppg in the 3 years with Lawrence. Last year, they had 33.2 ppg. This is not the same Clemson offense from years past.

Both offenses are dealing with some injuries. Clemson WR Beaux Collins entered the portal and transferred to Notre Dame.

Last meeting also came in late December, quite a few years ago now. It finished with a score of 21-13. History repeats itself with another Under. ***Early Riser***

12-28-23 Jets v. Browns UNDER 35 Top 20-37 Loss -110 13 h 12 m Show

It's a low number. Not low enough. These are two of the best defenses in football. Neither offense is consistent.

The Jets offense is especially anemic. They managed to score 30 in each of their last 2 home games but they scored 0 last time that they were on the road. They average just 12 points per road game.

Cleveland home games are lower-scoring than Clev. road games. The Browns allow only 13.1 points per game here, scoring just 20.5.

The Browns have allowed less than 300 yards in five of their past six games. The Browns rank 1st against the pass (160.1 yards per game), 1st in total defense (260.3 yards per game), 1st in yards per play (4.46 yards) and 1st in interception rate (3.46 percent).

With Flacco and Semian projected to be behind center, this game goes under. ***TNF TOM***

12-28-23 Pacers v. Bulls OVER 240.5 Top 120-104 Loss -110 13 h 11 m Show

Both teams have played some unders of late. That has kept the total lower than it could have been. Too low. Indiana games average 251.2 points.

The Pacers play at a very fast pace and they play even higher-scoring games on the road. When away from Indiana, their games average 255.2 points. They are 11-2 to the over on the road.

When favored, the Bulls go under. When they are underdogs, as they are here, the opposite is true. They are 13-7 to the Over when listed as underdogs.

Indiana's last visit here went way over the total, finishing with 247. I'm projecting an even higher-scoring game tonight. Go with the Over. ***Central TOY***

12-28-23 Tottenham Hotspur v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 3.5 Top 2-4 Loss -135 8 h 39 m Show

The fact that both these clubs can score has been worked into the line. We've got a high number to work with. Too high. Tottenham's last 2 matches had scores of 2-1 and 2-0. Brighton's last 5 matches had scores of 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1.

In looking at the last 10 h2h matches, it is revealed that al1 10 finished with 3 goals or less. 21 combined goals for the 10 matches, an average of 2.1 per.

Given the current form of these clubs, I've got this one also finishing with 3 or less. Go with the Under. ***Total Of Week***

12-28-23 Rutgers v. Miami-FL UNDER 42 31-24 Loss -109 7 h 29 m Show

Both defenses are better than advertised. Miami allows 22.1 points. Rutgers allows 21. Remember, Rutgers faced Michigan and Ohio State. Miami faced teams like UNC, Clemson and Florida State. So, those defensive numbers are pretty strong.

Rutgers can have trouble scoring. Before scoring 24 last game, the Knights had scored 16, 0 and 6 points in their previous 3 games.

NC State held Miami to 6 points in a 20-6 win in November. So, the Hurricanes can be stopped. They will be led by a QB making his first start and who didn't take a single snap this year.

Rutgers is going to methodically chew clock and play conservatively. This will lead to a low score. Go with the Under. **Rockstar**

12-27-23 Louisville v. USC UNDER 58.5 Top 28-42 Loss -105 31 h 31 m Show

USC games mostly went over the total this season. Their final 2 games did go under though and this isn't the same team that was flying over at the start of the season. Nearly 20 Trojam players have opted out, including Caleb Williams. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner, they'll have a QB (Miller Moss) making his first start. That's obviously a pretty big deal. The Cardinals can really play defense. They allow 307.4 yards per game, 16th in the country, entering the bowl season. They give up only 19.7 points a game. Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks) is an elite defensive end who will give the inexperienced USC pivot problems. The Cardinals are without some of their own top offensive players. Running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 15 touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (63 catches, 858 yards) both opted out out to focus on the NFL draft. The Cardinals scored only 6 points last game. This is a chance for the USC defense to prove its better than the stats suggest. Go with the Under! ***BOWL TOY***

12-27-23 76ers v. Magic UNDER 226 Top 112-92 Win 100 13 h 46 m Show

The Magic just went over against the Wizards last night. Washington doesn't play defense though and the 76ers do. Also, Washington is a divisional opponent and Philadelphia is not. The over is now 6-0 in Orlando's division games. They are 14-8-1 to the under when they play outside of the division. Last meeting finished with only 199 points. Second time in a week that Orlando played 2 games in 2 days. Last time was against Milwaukee. That game stayed under and this one will, too. ***Eastern Conf. TOM***

12-27-23 Virginia Tech v. Tulane UNDER 44 41-20 Loss -110 8 h 47 m Show

Both teams, particularly Tulane, are severely depleted. That makes the regular season stats somewhat meaningless. The Green Wave will be without their coach and without their starting QB. Other missing players include Tulane's top wide receiver. The Hokies are also missing some players but both teams have their top running backs. That's going to lead to a lot of rushing plays. The Hokies will go against a tough Tulane run defense, which ranked in the top 10. V-Tech defender Dorian Strong chose not to opt out and said this: "I know that the League (NFL) is there for me but there are risks coming back but I think I made the right decision for myself." This will be a defensive game. Go Under. ***Rockstar***

12-26-23 Magic v. Wizards OVER 237.5 Top 127-119 Win 100 10 h 6 m Show

A break will lead to fresh legs and a lot of points on Tuesday. It should also allow Kyle Kuzma time to get back for Washington. Magic have been playing pretty low-scoring games but not when the face divisional opponents. The Over is 5-0 in Magic divisional action. Games with Washington have been especially high-scoring. The Magic are content to run with the up-tempo Wizards. This season's first 2 games had scores of 139-120 and 130-125. Washington is 19-5 to the over last 24 home games with a total of 230 or more, 7-1 this season. This season's games were played at Orlando but these teams are also 4-0 to the over last 4 here in Washington. Go with the OVER! **Southeast TOY**

12-26-23 Texas State v. Rice OVER 60 45-21 Win 100 9 h 34 m Show

There is little reason to expect any defense in this one. Texas State averages 36 points and allows 33.8. That's an average of nearly 70 per game. Rice games have also been high-scoring. The Owls score 30.3 and allow 26.7. QB AJ Padget has been here before. The Bobcats last 2 games had scores of 96 and 108. If the Owls want to be competitive, they are going to need to keep pace. Look for the final score to fly over the total! ***TOP TIER TUESDAY***

12-26-23 Aston Villa v. Manchester United OVER 3 Top 2-3 Win 100 6 h 51 m Show

Aston Villa's last match was a low-scoring 1-1 draw, no thanks to VAR. That's unusual for Villa though. Games are typically exciting and full of goals. Only Manchester City has scored more goals than AV. After getting blanked 2-0 by West Ham, United will bounce back to find the back of the net. Two of the last 3 head-to-head meetings have finished with more than 3 goals. Go with the Over! **Golden Boot**

12-25-23 Giants v. Eagles OVER 43 Top 25-33 Win 100 10 h 22 m Show

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 50 points. Both teams allow more than 24 points a game. These teams play again in New York in 2 weeks. That game might be low-scoring but this one won't be. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over at home. Their only game which didn't go over the total here still finished with 48 points. Their other 5 home games had scores of 62, 65, 51, 71 and 61. The Giants have played 2 divisional games since the start of November and both finished with 50 or more points. Go with the Over! ***NFC EAST TOM***

12-24-23 Nevada v. Georgia Tech UNDER 141.5 Top 72-64 Win 100 12 h 52 m Show

Both teams went over Friday, when playing 2 games in 2 days. They had yesterday off and defense will now be the order of the day. Both teams hold opponents below 40% field goal shooting. Nevada is 4-2 to the under last 6 tries with a total in the 140 to 149.5 range, 6-4 to the under when favored. G-Tech is 5-2 to the under when listed as an underdog, also 5-2 with a total in the 140s. The under will move to 8-3 the last 11 time that the Yellow Jackets played on a neutral court. **TOTAL DOMINATOR**

12-24-23 Patriots v. Broncos OVER 35 Top 26-23 Win 100 11 h 16 m Show

Given the Patriots' offensive woes, it would be pretty easy to make a case for the under. New England ranks last in the league in points per game. That's been factored into the total though. This is the lowest O|U line on the board. Its lower than yesterday's game. Its lower than any today and its lower than any tomorrow. Next Thursday's game between the Jets and Browns has opened with a similarly low number. That's 2 great defenses though. The Patriots don't fall into that category. The Broncos certainly don't. Denver just allowed 42 points last game. The Broncos allow more than 25 points per game, the Patriots allow more than 21. Five of Denver's last 6 games have finished with at least 39. This is number is too low! ***SNF TOY***

12-23-23 Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State UNDER 48.5 24-14 Win 100 13 h 5 m Show

San Jose State pitched a shutout when it played here in Hawaii during the regular season. It was the Spartans best defensive effort of the season. The 35-0 victory stayed well below the total. Coastal Carolina will also struggle to score without their superstar quarterback. Their last game was high-scoring but the Chanticleers were 8-4 to the under on the season. They were held to 17 or less a few times but they also allowed 7 or less more than once. 2 of the last 3 Hawaii Bowls have finished with 48 or less. Make that 3 out of 4.

12-23-23 Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 238.5 Top 125-119 Win 100 10 h 25 m Show

Atlanta home games have been going to the over all season. Games here average 251.7 points. They are 8-2-1 to the over here. Memphis games have been lower-scoring but the Grizzlies only recently got Ja Morant back. Last time that the Grizzlies and Hawks met, they combined for 243 points. Morant had 27 and Young had 28. This one will be even higher-scoring. The Hawks are 3-1-1 to the over when playing 2 games in 2 days. Last time they played a home game after playing the previous day, the combined score was 292. ***NON-CONF TOW***

12-23-23 Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 38 Top 11-34 Loss -105 33 h 2 m Show

This season's first game had a final score of 16-10. Saturday's game will also be low-scoring. This is a late December divisional game. Both banged-up offense is led by a backup quarterback. Browning has impressed but he will be without Ja'Marr Chase. Over their last 5 games, the Steelers have scored 10, 16, 10, 18 and 13 points. The defense struggled last week but had previously held 8 of 9 opponents to 21 or less. Both defenses are dealing with some injuries but both will come to play. Rudolph's last start finished with 32 points, a 16-16 tie. This game will have a lot of running plays and that's going to keep the score down. Go with the under. ***AFC NORTH TOY***

12-22-23 Sheffield United v. Aston Villa OVER 3 Top 1-1 Loss -135 20 h 6 m Show

Aston Villa has a strong chance of reaching or exceeding this total by itself. This is a case of the top offense in the EPL against the worst defense in the EPL. With 37 goals in 17 league matches, Villa has scored more goals than any other team. With 43 goals allowed in 17 matches, Sheffield United has conceded more goals than any other team. Villa allows more than a goal per game and Sheffield doesn't usually get blanked. So the underdog should also contribute to the scoring. I'll call for a 3-1 final but it realistically could easily finish with more than that. ***EPL TOW***

12-22-23 James Madison v. Morgan State UNDER 161 89-75 Loss -110 18 h 16 m Show

Last meeting (2021) had a O|U line of 144. Morgan State scored an 80-73 upset. Another upset is unlikely. The Bears aren't going to score anywhere close to 80 again. The Dukes' last opponent scored 48 and none of their last six opponents have scored more than 71. The total is a lot higher than it was for the last meeting. Too high. The Dukes are 4-1 to the under the last 5 times that they played a game with an O|U ranging from 160-169.5. The score will stay below the high total and the under will improve to 4-0 when Morgan State faced a team with a winning record. ***EARLY RISER***

12-21-23 Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 225 Top 111-118 Loss -110 12 h 54 m Show

Both teams are off Wednesday losses. The Lakers fell 124-108 to Chicago. The TimberWolves dropped a 127-113 decision at Philadelphia. That's going to lead to better defense tonight. Minnesota is 3-1 to the under when off a loss of 10 or more points. Los Angeles is 5-2 to the under when off a loss of 10 or more. Last meeting between these clubs resulted in a 108-102 final in a game which had a total of 233. With that result, the under moved to 7-1 the last 8 times that these teams met. This one will also stay under! ***NBA TOW***

12-21-23 Saints v. Rams OVER 45.5 22-30 Win 100 35 h 13 m Show

This total is too low. These same teams met a little over a year ago. The game went over with a final score of 27-20. Neither team had trouble moving the ball. With a little better red zone efficiency, the score could have been higher. Entering Thursday, Los Angeles has been hot on offense for quite some time and New Orleans can now make the same claim. The Saints have scored 24, 28 and 28 points their past 3 games. They scored 9 touchdowns in 10 red zone trips. The Rams have scored 28, 31, 36 and 37 points their past four. Stafford is playing great, Cooper Kupp is peaking and the running game is thriving. This game will go over! ****TNF Rockstar***

12-20-23 Northern Arizona v. San Francisco OVER 136 Top 51-91 Win 100 13 h 5 m Show

Both the Dons and the Lumberjacks have been staying under the total in the majority of their games this season. All those unders have resulted in a very low O|U total for tonight's game. Too low! The last time these teams played, the total was set at 151. After struggling to score on the road last game, San Francisco will emphasize scoring in this game. The only previous game where they scored 60 or less saw their next game go over with 147. They've averaged 87 points in staying perfect on their home floor. Games here average 147 points. Northern Arizona has scored 76 or more in 4 straight games but the Lumberjacks have also allowed 74 or more in 3 straight. This game goes over the low total! ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

12-20-23 Borussia Monchengladbach v. Eintracht Frankfurt UNDER 3 Top 1-2 Push 0 6 h 50 m Show

Borussia Monchengladbach does tend to play some high-scoring matches. Their propensity for doing so is keeping this total high. This match will play out differently. The previous 2023 match between these clubs finished with a 1-1 draw. Goals are going be hard to come by again in this one. The hosts are in poor offensive form and will need to win this one by being sound defensively. Eintracht Frankfurt scored 0 goals last match, on only 4 shots, and has scored 1 or less in 3 of its last 4. Eintracht Frankfurt sits 8th in the table but the majority of the teams above them score a lot more goals. The last two meetings in Frankfurt have both finished with 2 combined goals. They may get that many again but they won't get any more! ***BUNDESLIGA TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

12-19-23 UTSA v. Marshall OVER 51 Top 35-17 Win 100 9 h 13 m Show

Total has come down and that's providing us with value. Marshall games average more than 51 points. UTSA games average more than 56! UTSA has scored 34 or more in 7 of the last 8 games, going over 40 in 4 of those. Marshall combined with for 56 points last game and is only a month removed from a 71 point game with Georgia Southern. Last 3 Frisco Bowls have had 92, 62 and 67 points. This game goes over! ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

12-18-23 Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 Top 17-20 Loss -110 11 h 27 m Show

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 51 points. Seattle games average 46. The Eagles offense is very difficult to stop but their defense has allowed 33, 42 and 34 points their last 3 games. Similarly, Seattle has allowed 28, 41 and 31 points its last 3. Both defenses saw some important players miss practice this week. The Eagles are healthy on offense. The Seahawks hope to have Geno Smith back to lead their offense. The extra day's rest helps his chances. Smith or Lock, the Seahawks know they are going to need a lot of points. This one goes over! ***NFC TOW***

12-18-23 Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion OVER 51 38-35 Win 100 6 h 49 m Show

Total is too low. Neither defense is very good. The Hilltoppers allow 28.2 points a game. The Monarchs allow 27.8. Both teams allow more on the road. Western Kentucky's last 3 games have finished with 67, 51 and 69 points. These schools combined for 63 points in 2021. 6 of their last 7 meetings have finished with more than 60. There are no weather issues and this will be another high-scoring games. Go with the Over. ***SUPER SMASH***

12-18-23 Louisiana-Monroe v. Jacksonville UNDER 140.5 65-75 Win 100 3 h 53 m Show

Total is too high. Same two clubs faced each other last year and the total was only 129.5. Even that was too high. Jacksonville won 65-55. They had only 46 by halftime. ULM is 131-91 to the under in road games over many years, 3-2 to the under on the road this season. The Warhawks are also 4-1 to the under as underdogs. Jacksonville kept its last opponent to 54 points and is allowing an average of 54 at home. This game stays under. ***EARLY RISER***

12-17-23 Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 Top 3-6 Loss -108 12 h 31 m Show

Both the Senators and the Knights will look to improve their number of goals allowed today. The last time that the Senators were off 3 straight losses, they responded with a 2-0 win. The last time that the Knights allowed 5 or more goals, they responded with a 4-1 win. The Knights allow only 2.48 goals per game, 3rd best in the NHL. They kill 87.3% of their penalties. Only Boston is better. Ottawa's last 3 visits to Sin City have finished with scores of 3-2, 2-1 and 4-1. All 3 of those games went under the total and this one will too. ***NHL TOW***

12-17-23 Jets v. Dolphins UNDER 37.5 Top 0-30 Win 100 96 h 60 m Show

The Jets offense has had its moments but has mostly been inconsistent. Before going overboard about their 30 point effort against Houston, remember that they scored 8, 13, 6, 12, 6 and 13 points their previous 6 games. The Miami offense is dangerous but NY has the defense to slow them. The Jets rank in the top 5 in the NFL for yards allowed. The Dolphins defense is better than the general public realizes. The Dolphins allowed 2 touchdowns in the final 3 minutes last game but they had only given up 14 for the first 57 minutes of that game. Before that, they gave up 15, 13 (to the Jets) and 13 in 3 previous games. They are a top 10 defense for yards allowed. Last season, the game at NY finished with 57 points but the rematch in Miami was far lower-scoring, finishing with only 17 points. This season the game at NY finished with 47. Once again, the rematch wiull be far lower-scoring. Go with the Under! ***AFC East TOY***

12-16-23 Brandon Royval v. Alexandre Pantoja UNDER 2.5 Top 0-1 Push 0 16 h 49 m Show

Brandon Royval is off back-to-back 1st Rd wins. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in either the 1st or the 2nd round. Alexandre Pantoja went the distance against Moreno last fight. He won his previous fight in the 1st round though. He previously defeated Royval in the 2nd round. Royval's style makes it likely that this rematch won't last long. The Raw Dog fights with ferocity and pace. Go with the Under! ***UFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

12-16-23 Broncos v. Lions UNDER 48 Top 17-42 Loss -108 28 h 57 m Show

The Lions scored only 13 points against Chicago last week. Now they take on a Denver defense which just allowed 7 points. The Broncos have been stingy for the past couple of months. Before holding the Chargers to 7, they allowed 19, 17, 9, 22, 20, 12 and 22 points. That's an average of 16 points allowed over their past 8 games. Although the defense has played well, the Broncos tend to have trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 24 or fewer points in every road game but one, averaging 20.7 points and only 191.3 yards of offense. 8 straight Denver games have finished with 46 or less. Go with the Under! ***Non-Conf TOM***

12-16-23 Vikings v. Bengals OVER 39.5 24-27 Win 100 72 h 7 m Show

The Bengals offense is back. They scored 34 points in each of their last 2 games. The Vikings only managed 3 points last game but they still average 20.9 points a game on the road. The Bengals have now had 6 of their last 7 games finish with 42 or more points. Four meetings have all had 40 or more points the most recent (2021) finishing with 51. Both games at Cincinnati finished with more than 50. No weather issues. This game goes over! ***NFL Dominator***

12-16-23 Fulham v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 Top 0-3 Win 100 2 h 27 m Show

With 33 goals in 16 EPL matches, Newcastle has no trouble finding the back of the net. Keeping the ball out of the net is a different matter. The Magpies conceded 4 goals last match and and 9 goals in their past 3 matches, across all leagues. Its been a similar story for Fulham. Through 16 matches, the Cottagers have scored 26 goals but have all conceded 26. That's an average of 3.25 goals per match. Last 5 matches have had 4, 5, 7, 5 and 5 goals scored. The Cottagers are scoring goals in bunches right now but often give up a lot on the road. This has all the makings of a high-scoring match. ***EPL TOW***

12-15-23 CS Bakersfield v. Fresno State UNDER 132.5 Top 58-61 Win 100 14 h 17 m Show

Fresno State and CS Bakersfield also faced each other last December. That game produced only 104 points, 54 in the first half and 50 in the second. CS BakersField will again struggle to score. The Roadrunners already had a game where they scored 40 points. They've scored 65 or less 4 times. Fresno State allowed only 56 points last game. The Bulldogs have also scored 65 or less in 3 of their last 5. The Roadrunners are 3-0 to the under against Mountain West opponents the last few seasons. This will make 4-0. ***DEC CBB TOM***

12-14-23 Chargers v. Raiders OVER 33 Top 21-63 Win 100 77 h 40 m Show

I played on the Chargers in this season's earlier game. It had an O|U line of 49 points. This one is much, much lower. The biggest difference is that Herbert played in the first game and that he may not in this one. He's questionable at the time of this writing. Coach Staley said Monday: "There’s a lot of information that we’re gathering right now, but he's as tough as they come. We’re gonna make sure that whatever it is, we’re going to do what’s best for Justin long term." Remember that Herbert was only 13 of 24 for 167 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the first game. He did add 2 rushing TDs but still his performance wasn't one of his best. But its because of him, primarily, that the total has come down so much. That's giving us value on the over. Of course, Herbert's not the only factor. The Raiders scoring 0 points last week also works in our favor to bring the line down. The last 9 meetings have all finished with 41 or more. With or without Herbert, this number is too low! ***AFC West TOY***

12-14-23 Capitals v. Flyers OVER 5.5 Top 3-4 Win 100 10 h 6 m Show

This is the lowest total of any of Thursday's hockey games. The rest have totals of 6 or more. Turning a 6 into a win instead of a push or loss is a big deal. Washington's last game finished with 6 goals. Two of the Capitals last 4 games have landed on that number. Three of their last 4 have finished with more than 5.5 goals. The last 10 meetings between these teams have also all had total lines of 6 or more. Capital road games average 5.9 goals on the season. Same goes for Flyer home games. Washington's last visit to the Philadelphia resulted in a 5-3 final, Travis Konecny recording a hat trick for the home team. This one will also finish over the total! ***Metro Div TOM***

12-14-23 Rangers v. Betis OVER 2.5 Top 3-2 Win 100 6 h 29 m Show

The first leg was low-scoring, a 1-0 final back in September. This one sets up for more scoring. At the top of Group C, Real Betis needs a point from the match to ensure a place in the knockout round playoffs. A win will confirm a direct spot for them in the round of 16. The visiting Rangers need a victory. This will lead to them throwing caution to the wind. Both clubs are missing some key defensive players which will lead to this match producing a minimum of 3 goals. Go with the Over. ***Europa Cup TOY***

12-13-23 Jets v. Kings OVER 6 5-2 Win 100 14 h 13 m Show

The Jets couldn't muster much offense last night. They will have to do better tonight as the Kings have scored 15 goals against them in the past 3 meetings alone. LA finally lost on the road, the trip wearing them down. The Kings had scored 4 or more goals in 3 straight and 7 of 8 before visiting New York though. Winnipeg has only played back-to-back games once and that game finished with 7 goals. This one goes over! ***Total Wipeout***

12-13-23 Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 214 Top 104-117 Win 100 12 h 57 m Show

On a night where the Pacers and Bucks have a total approaching 260, it's kind of refreshing to see a total this low. It's by far the lowest of the Wednesday NBA games. Too low? I believe so. Houston comes off a great defensive effort. The previous 5 opponents all scored in triple-figures and the Rockets do allow 105.6 points per game. Also, the Rockets are 3-0 to the over last 2 seasons after allowing 90 or less. The Grizzlies allow more than 112 points a game. The Grizzlies were struggling to score, on a 3-game streak where they only scored in double-figures when the teams first met. They've hit triple-figures in 6 straight now and scored 113 last game. They are 24-12-1 to the over last 37 tries off a division game. This game will get over the low total! ***SouthWest Div. TOY***

12-13-23 AC Milan v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 Top 2-1 Win 100 7 h 53 m Show

The first leg, back in September, was a scoreless draw but this will be entirely different. Both clubs now know that only a victory can possibly help them. That will lead to a wide open and exciting match. Goals will be plentiful. Why not? Neither team has anything to lose. Attacking chances will be the order of the day. Both clubs will find the back of the net and it would not surprise me if they both did so more than once. There will be no quit from the team which is trailing. They will throw caution to the wind which can lead to goals on the counter-attack. This match goes Over! ***Champions League TOY***

12-12-23 Kings v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 Top 99-119 Win 100 15 h 58 m Show

This is a back-to-back situation for both clubs. The only time that the Kings played a road game, after playing the previous day, they scored just 93 points. The final score of that November 20th game fell comfortably under the posted total. When the Clippers played a home game, after playing the previous day, they held Dallas to just 88 points. The final score of that November 25th game also stayed comfortably beneath the posted number. Last night's game was high-scoring but Clipper home games have been going to the under all season. We can expect a return to that brand of basketball tonight. ***Pacific Div. TOY***

12-12-23 Panthers v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5 Top 0-4 Win 100 13 h 52 m Show

Seattle has a scoring problem. The problem is that the Kraken can't score. They average only 2.52 goals a game. That's 4th worst in the NHL. Last game, they scored 0. They have scored 3 or less every time, in losing each of their 8 games. Over their last 5 games, they've scored only 6 combined goals. The Panthers are difficult to score against. They only permit 2.4 goals per road game. 8 of 14 road games have gone under. This season's earlier game finished at 3-2. Florida's visit here last December finished at 5-1. They won't even get that many tonight. ***NHL TOM***

12-11-23 Nuggets v. Hawks OVER 241 Top 129-122 Win 100 9 h 14 m Show

Both these clubs have dropped 3 consecutive games. The Nuggets are 8-2-1 to the over last 2 years after 3 or more straight losses. The Hawks are 9-4 to the over last 2 years after 3 or more straight losses. Denver has played 4 teams from the Eastern Conference. The over is 3-1. Atlanta has played 3 teams from the Western Conference. The over is 2-1. Denver's last game against an Eastern team finished with 243. points and Atlanta's last game against a team from the West finished with 272. Defense. What defense? They can't set this total high enough. The final score will fly over. ***NBA TOM***

12-10-23 Vikings v. Raiders OVER 40 Top 3-0 Loss -110 127 h 52 m Show

In my opinion, this number is too low. Both defenses are mediocre, both teams allow more than 20 points a game. The Vikings offense stalled last game but had previously been firing on all cylinders. The Raiders just had three straight games AFC teams, their most recent finishing with 48 points. The three games came against two playoff teams in KC and Miami and a really good defensive team in the New York Jets. Last time they faced an NFC opponent, the Vikings scored 30. Both offenses will have areas where they can enjoy success against these defenses. All 4 meetings over the years finished with at least 44 points. I've got this one penciled in for at least that many once again. ***NFC TOY***

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